Hurricane storm surge and amphibian communities in coastal wetlands of northwestern Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Gunzburger, M.S.; Hughes, W.B.; Barichivich, W.J.; Staiger, J.S.

2010-01-01

Isolated wetlands in the Southeastern United States are dynamic habitats subject to fluctuating environmental conditions. Wetlands located near marine environments are subject to alterations in water chemistry due to storm surge during hurricanes. The objective of our study was to evaluate the effect of storm surge overwash on wetland amphibian communities. Thirty-two wetlands in northwestern Florida were sampled over a 45-month period to assess amphibian species richness and water chemistry. During this study, seven wetlands were overwashed by storm surge from Hurricane Dennis which made landfall 10 July 2005 in the Florida panhandle. This event allowed us to evaluate the effect of storm surge overwash on water chemistry and amphibian communities of the wetlands. Specific conductance across all wetlands was low pre-storm (marine habitats are resistant to the effects of storm surge overwash. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

Dependence of US hurricane economic loss on maximum wind speed and storm size

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhai, Alice R; Jiang, Jonathan H

2014-01-01

Many empirical hurricane economic loss models consider only wind speed and neglect storm size. These models may be inadequate in accurately predicting the losses of super-sized storms, such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012. In this study, we examined the dependences of normalized US hurricane loss on both wind speed and storm size for 73 tropical cyclones that made landfall in the US from 1988 through 2012. A multi-variate least squares regression is used to construct a hurricane loss model using both wind speed and size as predictors. Using maximum wind speed and size together captures more variance of losses than using wind speed or size alone. It is found that normalized hurricane loss (L) approximately follows a power law relation with maximum wind speed (V max ) and size (R), L = 10 c V max a R b , with c determining an overall scaling factor and the exponents a and b generally ranging between 4–12 and 2–4 respectively. Both a and b tend to increase with stronger wind speed. Hurricane Sandy’s size was about three times of the average size of all hurricanes analyzed. Based on the bi-variate regression model that explains the most variance for hurricanes, Hurricane Sandy’s loss would be approximately 20 times smaller if its size were of the average size with maximum wind speed unchanged. It is important to revise conventional empirical hurricane loss models that are only dependent on maximum wind speed to include both maximum wind speed and size as predictors. (letters)

Mapping Hurricane Rita inland storm tide

Science.gov (United States)

Berenbrock, Charles; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Blanchard, Stephen F.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

2009-01-01

Flood-inundation data are most useful for decision makers when presented in the context of maps of effected communities and (or) areas. But because the data are scarce and rarely cover the full extent of the flooding, interpolation and extrapolation of the information are needed. Many geographic information systems (GIS) provide various interpolation tools, but these tools often ignore the effects of the topographic and hydraulic features that influence flooding. A barrier mapping method was developed to improve maps of storm tide produced by Hurricane Rita. Maps were developed for the maximum storm tide and at 3-hour intervals from midnight (0000 hour) through noon (1200 hour) on September 24, 2005. The improved maps depict storm-tide elevations and the extent of flooding. The extent of storm-tide inundation from the improved maximum storm-tide map was compared to the extent of flood-inundation from a map prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The boundaries from these two maps generally compared quite well especially along the Calcasieu River. Also a cross-section profile that parallels the Louisiana coast was developed from the maximum storm-tide map and included FEMA high-water marks.

Measuring the Storm: Methods of Quantifying Hurricane Exposure in Public Health

Science.gov (United States)

Increasing coastal populations and storm intensity may lead to more adverse health effects from tropical storms and hurricanes. Exposure during pregnancy can influence birth outcomes through mechanisms related to healthcare, infrastructure disruption, stress, nutrition, and inju...

Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, S. S.

2017-12-01

The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

The value of wetlands in protecting southeast louisiana from hurricane storm surges.

Science.gov (United States)

Barbier, Edward B; Georgiou, Ioannis Y; Enchelmeyer, Brian; Reed, Denise J

2013-01-01

The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.

Seismic detection of tornadoes

Science.gov (United States)

Tatom, F. B.

1993-01-01

Tornadoes represent the most violent of all forms of atmospheric storms, each year resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage and approximately one hundred fatalities. In recent years, considerable success has been achieved in detecting tornadic storms by means of Doppler radar. However, radar systems cannot determine when a tornado is actually in contact with the ground, expect possibly at extremely close range. At the present time, human observation is the only truly reliable way of knowing that a tornado is actually on the ground. However, considerable evidence exists indicating that a tornado in contact with the ground produces a significant seismic signal. If such signals are generated, the seismic detection and warning of an imminent tornado can become a distinct possibility. 

Rhode Island hurricanes and tropical storms: A fifty-six year summary 1936-1991. Technical memo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vallee, D.R.

1993-03-01

The paper was compiled to provide a general overview of all tropical cyclone activity near Rhode Island since 1936. The year of 1936 is arbitrary, chosen mainly to include a 'not so well known' system prior to the well documented Great New England Hurricane of 1938. Thirty-one such storms have affected the state in the past 56 years, either making landfall along the coast of southern New England, or passing close enough over the offshore waters to spread tropical storm or hurricane force conditions into the area. The intensities of these systems have ranged from weak, disorganized tropical storms to full fledged major hurricanes. The one feature common to almost all of the storms was a rapid acceleration toward Rhode Island, which greatly reduced the time to prepare and evacuate

Spatial generalized linear mixed models of electric power outages due to hurricanes and ice storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Haibin; Davidson, Rachel A.; Apanasovich, Tatiyana V.

2008-01-01

This paper presents new statistical models that predict the number of hurricane- and ice storm-related electric power outages likely to occur in each 3 kmx3 km grid cell in a region. The models are based on a large database of recent outages experienced by three major East Coast power companies in six hurricanes and eight ice storms. A spatial generalized linear mixed modeling (GLMM) approach was used in which spatial correlation is incorporated through random effects. Models were fitted using a composite likelihood approach and the covariance matrix was estimated empirically. A simulation study was conducted to test the model estimation procedure, and model training, validation, and testing were done to select the best models and assess their predictive power. The final hurricane model includes number of protective devices, maximum gust wind speed, hurricane indicator, and company indicator covariates. The final ice storm model includes number of protective devices, ice thickness, and ice storm indicator covariates. The models should be useful for power companies as they plan for future storms. The statistical modeling approach offers a new way to assess the reliability of electric power and other infrastructure systems in extreme events

Effect of hurricanes and violent storms on salt marsh

Science.gov (United States)

Leonardi, N.; Ganju, N. K.; Fagherazzi, S.

2016-12-01

Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

Storms over the Urban Forest: Planning, Responding, and Regreening-- A community Guide to Natural Disaster Relief

Science.gov (United States)

Lisa L. Burban; John W. Andresen

1994-01-01

Natural disasters which can occur in the United States include floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, and related high-velocity winds, as well as ice storms. Preparing for these natural disasters, which strike urban forests in large cities and small communities, should involve the cooperative effort of a wide array of municipal agencies, private arboricultural companies,...

Weather Advisory: Tornados | Poster

Science.gov (United States)

Summer months carry the threat of severe storms and tornados in our area. Take a few moments to consider how well you are prepared in the event of a tornado warning. The time to prepare for a tornado is before it happens. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides information on how to prepare and what to do in the event of a tornado. Take a few moments to read

Numerical Simulation of a Tornado Generating Supercell

Science.gov (United States)

Proctor, Fred H.; Ahmad, Nashat N.; LimonDuparcmeur, Fanny M.

2012-01-01

The development of tornadoes from a tornado generating supercell is investigated with a large eddy simulation weather model. Numerical simulations are initialized with a sounding representing the environment of a tornado producing supercell that affected North Carolina and Virginia during the Spring of 2011. The structure of the simulated storm was very similar to that of a classic supercell, and compared favorably to the storm that affected the vicinity of Raleigh, North Carolina. The presence of mid-level moisture was found to be important in determining whether a supercell would generate tornadoes. The simulations generated multiple tornadoes, including cyclonic-anticyclonic pairs. The structure and the evolution of these tornadoes are examined during their lifecycle.

Impacts of Hurricane Rita on the beaches of western Louisiana: Chapter 5D in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Fauver, Laura A.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Wright, C. Wayne

2007-01-01

Hurricane Rita made landfall as a category 3 storm in western Louisiana in late September 2005, 1 month following Hurricane Katrina's devastating landfall in the eastern part of the State. Large waves and storm surge inundated the lowelevation coastline, destroying many communities and causing extensive coastal change including beach, dune, and marsh erosion.

An Exploration of Wind Stress Calculation Techniques in Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyra M. Bryant

2016-09-01

Full Text Available As hurricanes continue to threaten coastal communities, accurate storm surge forecasting remains a global priority. Achieving a reliable storm surge prediction necessitates accurate hurricane intensity and wind field information. The wind field must be converted to wind stress, which represents the air-sea momentum flux component required in storm surge and other oceanic models. This conversion requires a multiplicative drag coefficient for the air density and wind speed to represent the air-sea momentum exchange at a given location. Air density is a known parameter and wind speed is a forecasted variable, whereas the drag coefficient is calculated using an empirical correlation. The correlation’s accuracy has brewed a controversy of its own for more than half a century. This review paper examines the lineage of drag coefficient correlations and their acceptance among scientists.

A tale of two storms: Surges and sediment deposition from Hurricanes Andrew and Wilma in Florida’s southwest coast mangrove forests: Chapter 6G in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Thomas J.; Anderson, Gordon H.; Tiling, Ginger

2007-01-01

Hurricanes can be very different from each other. Here we examine the impacts that two hurricanes, Andrew and Wilma, had in terms of storm surge and sediment deposition on the southwest coast of Florida. Although Wilma was the weaker storm, it had the greater impact. Wilma had the higher storm surge over a larger area and deposited more sediment than did Andrew. This effect was most likely due to the size of Wilma's eye, which was four times larger than that of Andrew.

Ionospheric and satellite observations for studying the dynamic behavior of typhoons and the detection of severe storms and tsunamis

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, R. J.; Smith, R. E.

1978-01-01

Atmospheric acoustic-gravity waves associated with severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, typhoons (hurricanes) and tsunamis can be studied through the coupling between the ionosphere and the troposphere. Reverse ray tracing computations of acoustic-gravity waves observed by an ionospheric Doppler sounder array show that wave sources are in the nearby storm systems and that the waves are excited prior to the storms. Results show that ionospheric observations, together with satellite observations, can contribute to the understanding of the dynamical behavior of typhoons, severe storms and tsunamis.

Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

KAUST Repository

Butler, T.; Altaf, Muhammad; Dawson, C.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Luo, X.; Mayo, T.

2012-01-01

levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge

Storm Surge and Wave Impact of Low-Probability Hurricanes on the Lower Delaware Bay—Calibration and Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehrdad Salehi

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Hurricanes pose major threats to coastal communities and sensitive infrastructure, including nuclear power plants, located in the vicinity of hurricane-prone coastal regions. This study focuses on evaluating the storm surge and wave impact of low-probability hurricanes on the lower Delaware Bay using the Delft3D dynamically coupled wave and flow model. The model comprised Overall and Nested domains. The Overall model domain encompassed portions of the Atlantic Ocean, Delaware Bay, and Chesapeake Bay. The two-level Nested model domains encompassed the Delaware Estuary, its floodplain, and a portion of the continental shelf. Low-probability hurricanes are critical considerations in designing and licensing of new nuclear power plants as well as in establishing mitigating strategies for existing power facilities and other infrastructure types. The philosophy behind low-probability hurricane modeling is to establish reasonable water surface elevation and wave characteristics that have very low to no probability of being exceeded in the region. The area of interest (AOI is located on the west bank of Delaware Bay, almost 16 miles upstream of its mouth. The model was first calibrated for Hurricane Isabel (2003 and then applied to synthetic hurricanes with very low probability of occurrence to establish the storm surge envelope at the AOI. The model calibration results agreed reasonably well with field observations of water surface elevation, wind velocity, wave height, and wave period. A range of meteorological, storm track direction, and storm bearing parameters that produce the highest sustained wind speeds were estimated using the National Weather Service (NWS methodology and applied to the model. Simulations resulted in a maximum stillwater elevation and wave height of 7.5 m NAVD88 and 2.5 m, respectively, at the AOI. Comparison of results with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, North Atlantic Coastal Comprehensive Study (USACE-NACCS storm surge

Dual-Polarimetric Radar-Based Tornado Debris Signatures and Paths Associated with Tornadoes Over Northern Alabama During the Historic Outbreak of 27 April 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Christopher J.; Schultz, Elise V.; Petersen, Walter A.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Knupp, Kevin R.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Jedloved, Gary J.; Carcione, Brian C.; Darden, Christopher B.;

Hurricane impacts on coastal wetlands: a half-century record of storm-generated features from southern Louisiana

Science.gov (United States)

Morton, Robert A.; Barras, John A.

2011-01-01

Temporally and spatially repeated patterns of wetland erosion, deformation, and deposition are observed on remotely sensed images and in the field after hurricanes cross the coast of Louisiana. The diagnostic morphological wetland features are products of the coupling of high-velocity wind and storm-surge water and their interaction with the underlying, variably resistant, wetland vegetation and soils. Erosional signatures include construction of orthogonal-elongate ponds and amorphous ponds, pond expansion, plucked marsh, marsh denudation, and shoreline erosion. Post-storm gravity reflux of floodwater draining from the wetlands forms dendritic incisions around the pond margins and locally integrates drainage pathways forming braided channels. Depositional signatures include emplacement of broad zones of organic wrack on topographic highs and inorganic deposits of variable thicknesses and lateral extents in the form of shore-parallel sandy washover terraces and interior-marsh mud blankets. Deformational signatures primarily involve laterally compressed marsh and displaced marsh mats and balls. Prolonged water impoundment and marsh salinization also are common impacts associated with wetland flooding by extreme storms. Many of the wetland features become legacies that record prior storm impacts and locally influence subsequent storm-induced morphological changes. Wetland losses caused by hurricane impacts depend directly on impact duration, which is controlled by the diameter of hurricane-force winds, forward speed of the storm, and wetland distance over which the storm passes. Distinguishing between wetland losses caused by storm impacts and losses associated with long-term delta-plain processes is critical for accurate modeling and prediction of future conversion of land to open water.

Hurricane Rita and the destruction of Holly Beach, Louisiana: Why the chenier plain is vulnerable to storms

Science.gov (United States)

Sallenger, A.H.; Wright, C.W.; Doran, K.; Guy, K.; Morgan, K.

2009-01-01

Hurricane Rita devastated gulf-front communities along the western Louisiana coast in 2005. LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys and aerial photography collected before and after the storm showed the loss of every structure within the community of Holly Beach. Average shoreline change along western Louisiana's 140-km-long impacted shore was -23.3 ?? 30.1 m of erosion, although shoreline change in Holly Beach was substantially less, and erosion was not pervasive where the structures were lost. Before the storm, peak elevations of the dunes, or berms in the absence of dunes, along the impacted shore averaged 1.6 m. The storm surge, which reached 3.5 m just east of Holly Beach, completely inundated the beach systems along the impacted western Louisiana shore. The high surge potential and low land elevations make this coast extremely vulnerable to hurricanes. In fact, most of the western Louisiana shore impacted by Rita will be completely inundated by the storm surge of a worst-case Saffi r-Simpson category 1 hurricane. All of this shore will be inundated by worst-case category 2-5 storms. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Doppler Radar and Lightning Network Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

Science.gov (United States)

Mccaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis E.; Goodman, Steven J.; Cammarata, Michael

2004-01-01

Data from a single Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak, including three tornadoes that reached F3 intensity, within Tropical Storm Beryl s remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 h. spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 h. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes longer than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) tornado event. This event is easily the most intense TC tornado outbreak yet documented with WSR-88Ds. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined in Beryl s remnants. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, their flash rates were only weak to moderate, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. There is evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during the tornadoes, compared to 30-min periods before the tornadoes. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Contrary to the findings for flash rates, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl's nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones.

Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike waves, forerunner, and storm surge

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hope, M.E.; Westerink, J.J.; Kennedy, A.B.; Kerr, P.C.; Dietrich, J.C.; Dawson, C.; Bender, C.J.; Smith, J.M.; Jensen, R.E.; Zijlema, M.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Luettich, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Cardone, V.J.; Cox, A.T.; Pourtaheri, H.; Roberts, H.J.; Atkinson, J.H.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, H.J.; Westerink, L.G.

2013-01-01

Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana-Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied

High Resolution Hurricane Storm Surge and Inundation Modeling (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Luettich, R.; Westerink, J. J.

2010-12-01

Coastal counties are home to nearly 60% of the U.S. population and industry that accounts for over 16 million jobs and 10% of the U.S. annual gross domestic product. However, these areas are susceptible to some of the most destructive forces in nature, including tsunamis, floods, and severe storm-related hazards. Since 1900, tropical cyclones making landfall on the US Gulf of Mexico Coast have caused more than 9,000 deaths; nearly 2,000 deaths have occurred during the past half century. Tropical cyclone-related adjusted, annualized losses in the US have risen from 1.3 billion from 1949-1989, to 10.1 billion from 1990-1995, and $35.8 billion per year for the period 2001-2005. The risk associated with living and doing business in the coastal areas that are most susceptible to tropical cyclones is exacerbated by rising sea level and changes in the characteristics of severe storms associated with global climate change. In the five years since hurricane Katrina devastated the northern Gulf of Mexico Coast, considerable progress has been made in the development and utilization of high resolution coupled storm surge and wave models. Recent progress will be presented with the ADCIRC + SWAN storm surge and wave models. These tightly coupled models use a common unstructured grid in the horizontal that is capable of covering large areas while also providing high resolution (i.e., base resolution down to 20m plus smaller subgrid scale features such as sea walls and levees) in areas that are subject to surge and inundation. Hydrodynamic friction and overland winds are adjusted to account for local land cover. The models scale extremely well on modern high performance computers allowing rapid turnaround on large numbers of compute cores. The models have been adopted for FEMA National Flood Insurance Program studies, hurricane protection system design and risk analysis, and quasi-operational forecast systems for several regions of the country. They are also being evaluated as

Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

Science.gov (United States)

Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

2017-12-01

An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the

Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

Science.gov (United States)

Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.

2015-08-01

Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40-60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

Prevention of child injuries during tornadoes: cases from the 2011 tornado outbreak in Alabama.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Christine M; Baker, Mark D; Monroe, Kathy W

2012-12-01

Tornadoes and violent weather pose a hazard to children, yet little is known about the use of personal protective devices during storms. An outbreak of tornadoes on April 27, 2011, resulted in the deaths of 23 children in Alabama. Records from 60 patients seen in a pediatric emergency department for tornado-related injuries were reviewed to identify the use of injury prevention devices. Three children directly exposed to a violent tornado (Enhanced Fujita Scale 4) were using safety equipment, specifically, a helmet and infant car seats. These 3 children sustained only minor injuries. Personal protective devices may have played a role in preventing child injuries from tornadoes. To our knowledge, this is the first report in the medical literature on helmet and infant car seat use as child protective devices during tornadoes.

A geospatial dataset for U.S. hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise vulnerability: Development and case study applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Megan C. Maloney

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The consequences of future sea-level rise for coastal communities are a priority concern arising from anthropogenic climate change. Here, previously published methods are scaled up in order to undertake a first pass assessment of exposure to hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts. Sea-level rise scenarios ranging from +0.50 to +0.82 m by 2100 increased estimates of the area exposed to inundation by 4–13% and 7–20%, respectively, among different Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity categories. Potential applications of these hazard layers for vulnerability assessment are demonstrated with two contrasting case studies: potential exposure of current energy infrastructure in the U.S. Southeast and exposure of current and future housing along both the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Estimates of the number of Southeast electricity generation facilities potentially exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 69 to 291 for category 1 and category 5 storms, respectively. Sea-level rise increased the number of exposed facilities by 6–60%, depending on the sea-level rise scenario and the intensity of the hurricane under consideration. Meanwhile, estimates of the number of housing units currently exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 4.1 to 9.4 million for category 1 and category 4 storms, respectively, while exposure for category 5 storms was estimated at 7.1 million due to the absence of landfalling category 5 hurricanes in the New England region. Housing exposure was projected to increase 83–230% by 2100 among different sea-level rise and housing scenarios, with the majority of this increase attributed to future housing development. These case studies highlight the utility of geospatial hazard information for national-scale coastal exposure or vulnerability assessment as well as the importance of future socioeconomic development in the assessment of coastal vulnerability.

Multi-proxy Characterization of Two Recent Storm Deposits Attributed to Hurricanes Rita and Ike in the Chenier Plain of Southwestern Louisiana

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Q.; Liu, K. B.; Ryu, J.

2017-12-01

The Chenier Plain in southwestern Louisiana owes its origin to dynamic depositional processes that are dominated by delta-switching of the Mississippi River to the east, while frequent hurricane activities also play an important role in its geomorphology and sedimentary history. However, despite several studies in the literature, the sediment-stratigraphic characteristics of recent or historic hurricane deposits are still not well documented from the Chenier Plain. In 2005 and 2008, Hurricane Rita (category 3) and Ike (category 2) made landfall on the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Remote sensing images confirm that the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, located at the east end of the Louisiana Chenier Plain, was heavily impacted by both hurricanes. We analyzed the lithology and chemical stratigraphy of three 30 cm sediment monoliths (ROC-1, ROC-2, and ROC-3) recovered from a coastal saltmarsh in the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to identify the event deposits attributed to these two storms. Each monolith contains 2 distinct light-colored clastic sediment layers imbedded in brown organic clay. The loss-on-ignition and X-ray fluorescence results show that the hurricane layers have increased contents of Ca, Sr, Zr, and carbonates and decreased contents of water and organics. Surprisingly, despite its greater intensity and more severe impacts, Hurricane Rita left a much thinner storm deposit than did Hurricane Ike in all monoliths. Satellite data reveal that Hurricane Rita caused significant coastal erosion and shoreline recession, rendering the sampling sites much closer to the beach and ocean and therefore more prone to storm surges and overwash deposition than when Hurricane Ike struck three years later. Our results suggest that site-to-sea distance, which affects a study site's paleotempestological sensitivity, can play a bigger role in affecting the thicknesses of storm deposits than the intensity of the hurricane.

Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Tchounwou

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE obtained at the equilibrium level (EL, from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

Storm Impact and Depression Among Older Adults Living in Hurricane Sandy-Affected Areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Sirey, Jo Anne; Berman, Jacquelin; Halkett, Ashley; Giunta, Nancy; Kerrigan, Janice; Raeifar, Elmira; Artis, Amanda; Banerjee, Samprit; Raue, Patrick J

2017-02-01

Research on the impact of natural disasters on the mental health of older adults finds both vulnerabilities and resilience. We report on the rates of clinically significant depression among older adults (aged ≥60 years) living in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the factors associated with mental health need. The Sandy Mobilization, Assessment, Referral and Treatment for Mental Health (SMART-MH) program integrates community outreach and needs assessments to identify older adults with mental health and aging service needs. Older adults with significant anxiety or depressive symptoms were offered short-term psychotherapy. Social service referrals were made directly to community agencies. All SMART-MH activities were offered in Spanish, Russian, Mandarin/Cantonese, and English. Across the full sample, 14% of participants screened positive for depression. Hurricane Sandy stressors predicted increased odds of depression, including storm injury, post-storm crime, and the total count of stressors. Outcomes varied significantly by age group, such that all Sandy-related variables remained significant for younger-old adults (aged 60-74 years), whereas only the loss of access to medical care was significant for older-old adults (aged ≥75 years). Storm-affected communities show higher rates of depressive symptoms than seen in the general population, with storm stressors affecting mental health needs differentially by age group. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:97-109).

The weight of a storm: what observations of Earth surface deformation can tell us about Hurricane Harvey

Science.gov (United States)

Borsa, A. A.; Mencin, D.; van Dam, T. M.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to impact the USA in over a decade, making landfall southwest of Houston, TX on August 26, 2017. Although Harvey was downgraded to a tropical storm shortly after landfall, it dropped a record amount of rain and was responsible for epic flooding across much of southeast Texas. While precipitation from a large storm like Harvey can be estimated from in-situ rain gages and Doppler radar, the accompanying surface water changes that lead to flooding are imperfectly observed due to the limited coverage of existing stream and lake level gages and because floodwaters inundate areas that are typically unmonitored. Earth's response to changes in surface loading provides an opportunity to observe the local hydrological response to Hurricane Harvey, specifically the dramatic changes in water storage coincident with and following the storm. Continuous GPS stations in southeastern Texas observed an average drop in land surface elevations of 1.8 cm following Harvey's landfall, followed by a gradual recovery to pre-storm levels over the following month. We interpret this surface motion as Earth's elastic response to the weight of cumulative rainfall during the storm, followed by rebound as that weight was removed by runoff and evapotranspiration (ET). Using observations of surface displacements from GPS stations in the HoustonNET and Plate Boundary Observatory networks, we model the daily water storage changes across Texas and Louisiana associated with Harvey. Because Harvey's barometric pressure low caused surface uplift at the cm level which temporarily obscured the subsidence signal due to precipitation, we model and remove the effect of atmospheric loading from the GPS data prior to our analysis. We also consider the effect on GPS position time series of non-tidal ocean loading due to the hurricane storm surge, which at the coast was an order of magnitude larger than loads due to precipitation alone. Finally, we use our results to

The effect of wave current interactions on the storm surge and inundation in Charleston Harbor during Hurricane Hugo 1989

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Lian; Liu, Huiqing; Peng, Machuan

The effects of wave-current interactions on the storm surge and inundation induced by Hurricane Hugo in and around the Charleston Harbor and its adjacent coastal regions are examined by using a three-dimensional (3-D) wave-current coupled modeling system. The 3-D storm surge and inundation modeling component of the coupled system is based on the Princeton ocean model (POM), whereas the wave modeling component is based on the third-generation wave model, simulating waves nearshore (SWAN). The results indicate that the effects of wave-induced surface, bottom, and radiation stresses can separately or in combination produce significant changes in storm surge and inundation. The effects of waves vary spatially. In some areas, the contribution of waves to peak storm surge during Hurricane Hugo reached as high as 0.76 m which led to substantial changes in the inundation and drying areas simulated by the storm surge model.

7 CFR 457.107 - Florida citrus fruit crop insurance provisions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... hurricane, tornado or other excess wind storms that results in the fruit not meeting the standards for... designated as Citrus I through IX. Excess wind. A natural movement of air that has sustained speeds exceeding... grove; (2) Freeze; (3) Hail; (4) Hurricane; (5) Tornado; (6) Excess wind, but only if it causes the...

Statistics of severe tornadoes and severe tornado outbreaks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. D. Malamud

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The standard measures of the intensity of a tornado in the USA and many other countries are the Fujita and Enhanced Fujita scales. These scales are based on the damage that a tornado causes. Another measure of the strength of a tornado is its path length of touchdown, L. In this study we consider severe tornadoes, which we define as L≥10 km, in the continental USA (USA Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Database. We find that for the period 1982–2011, for individual severe tornadoes (L≥10 km: (i There is a strong linear scaling between the number of severe tornadoes in a year and their total path length in that year. (ii The cumulative frequency path length data suggests that, not taking into account any changing trends over time, we would expect in a given year (on average one severe tornado with a path length L≥115 km and in a decade (on average one severe tornado with a path length L≥215 km. (iii The noncumulative frequency-length statistics of severe tornado touchdown path lengths, 20<L<200 km, is well approximated by an inverse power-law relationship with exponent near 3. We then take the total path length of severe tornadoes in a convective day (12:00–12:00 UTC, L_D, as a measure of the strength of a 24-h USA tornado outbreak. We find that: (i For 1982–2011, the number of severe tornadoes in a USA convective day outbreak has a strong power-law relationship (exponent 0.80 on the convective day total path length, L_D. (ii For 1952–2011, the cumulative frequency path length data for severe tornado outbreaks suggests that we would expect in a given year (on average one daily severe tornado outbreak with total path length L_D≥480 km and in a decade (on average one daily severe tornado outbreak with a total path length L_D≥1200 km. (iii For 1982–2011, the noncumulative frequency-length statistics of tornado

Predicting the Storm Surge Threat of Hurricane Sandy with the National Weather Service SLOSH Model

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Cristina Forbes

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Numerical simulations of the storm tide that flooded the US Atlantic coastline during Hurricane Sandy (2012 are carried out using the National Weather Service (NWS Sea Lakes and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH storm surge prediction model to quantify its ability to replicate the height, timing, evolution and extent of the water that was driven ashore by this large, destructive storm. Recent upgrades to the numerical model, including the incorporation of astronomical tides, are described and simulations with and without these upgrades are contrasted to assess their contributions to the increase in forecast accuracy. It is shown, through comprehensive verifications of SLOSH simulation results against peak water surface elevations measured at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA tide gauge stations, by storm surge sensors deployed and hundreds of high water marks collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, that the SLOSH-simulated water levels at 71% (89% of the data measurement locations have less than 20% (30% relative error. The RMS error between observed and modeled peak water levels is 0.47 m. In addition, the model’s extreme computational efficiency enables it to run large, automated ensembles of predictions in real-time to account for the high variability that can occur in tropical cyclone forecasts, thus furnishing a range of values for the predicted storm surge and inundation threat.

A Tsunami Ball Approach to Storm Surge and Inundation: Application to Hurricane Katrina, 2005

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven N. Ward

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Most analyses of storm surge and inundation solve equations of continuity and momentum on fixed finite-difference/finite-element meshes. I develop a completely new approach that uses a momentum equation to accelerate bits or balls of water over variable depth topography. The thickness of the water column at any point equals the volume density of balls there. In addition to being more intuitive than traditional methods, the tsunami ball approach has several advantages. (a By tracking water balls of fixed volume, the continuity equation is satisfied automatically and the advection term in the momentum equation becomes unnecessary. (b The procedure is meshless in the finite-difference/finite-element sense. (c Tsunami balls care little if they find themselves in the ocean or inundating land. (d Tsunami ball calculations of storm surge can be done on a laptop computer. I demonstrate and calibrate the method by simulating storm surge and inundation around New Orleans, Louisiana caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and by comparing model predictions with field observations. To illustrate the flexibility of the tsunami ball technique, I run two “What If” hurricane scenarios—Katrina over Savannah, Georgia and Katrina over Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

Doppler Radar and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

Science.gov (United States)

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis; Cammarata, Michael; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 12 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Time-height analyses of the three strongest supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and evolution. These Beryl mini-supercells were comparable in radar-observed intensity but much more persistent than other tropical cyclone-spawned tornadic cells documented thus far with Doppler radars. Cloud-to-ground lightning data are also examined for all the tornadic cells in this severe swarm-type tornado outbreak. These data show many of the characteristics of previously reported heavy-precipitation supercells. Lightning rates were weak to moderate, even in the more intense supercells, and in all the storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. No lightning at all was detected in some of the single-tornado storms. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that lightning rates can decrease during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final cloud-to-ground lightning flashes. These findings suggest possible benefits from implementation of observing systems capable of monitoring intracloud as well as cloud-to-ground lightning activity.

Regional-scale impact of storm surges on groundwaters of Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico after 2017 hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria

Science.gov (United States)

Sellier, W. H.; Dürr, H. H.

2017-12-01

Hurricanes and related storm surges have devastating effects on near-shore infrastructure and above-ground installations. They also heavily impact groundwater resources, with potentially millions of people dependant on these resources as a freshwater source. Destructions of casings and direct incursions of saline and/or polluted waters have been widely observed. It is uncertain how extensive the effects are on underground water systems, especially in limestone karst areas such as Florida and Puerto Rico. Here, we report regional-scale water level changes in groundwater systems of Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico for the 2017 Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria. We collected regional scale data from the USGS Waterdata portal. Puerto Rico shows the strongest increase in groundwater levels in wells during Hurricane Maria, with less reaction for the preceding storms Irma and Jose. Increases in water levels range from 0.5 to 11m, with maximum storm surges in Puerto Rico around 3m. These wells are located throughout Puerto Rico, on the coast and inland. In Florida, most wells that show a response during Hurricane Irma are located in the Miami region. Wells located on the west coast show smaller responses with the exception of one well located directly on Hurricane Irma's track. These wells show an increase of 0.2 to 1.7m. In Texas, wells located in proximity to Hurricane Harvey's track show an increase in water level. The effect of groundwater level increases is not limited to the Texas coast, but inland as well. An increase between 0.03 and 2.9m is seen. Storm surges for both Florida and Texas have ranged from 1.8-3.7m maximum. We discuss the findings in the context of local and regional geology and hydrogeology (presence of connected aquifer systems, faulting, presence of carbonate/karst systems etc.).

HURRICANE AND SEVERE STORM SENTINEL (HS3) GLOBAL HAWK HIGH ALTITUDE MMIC SOUNDING RADIOMETER (HAMSR) V1

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Global Hawk High Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR) datasets include measurements gathered by the HAMSR...

Proposing a tornado watch scale

Science.gov (United States)

Mason, Jonathan Brock

This thesis provides an overview of language used in tornado safety recommendations from various sources, along with developing a rubric for scaled tornado safety recommendations, and subsequent development and testing of a tornado watch scale. The rubric is used to evaluate tornado refuge/shelter adequacy responses of Tuscaloosa residents gathered following the April 27, 2011 Tuscaloosa, Alabama EF4 tornado. There was a significant difference in the counts of refuge adequacy for Tuscaloosa residents when holding the locations during the April 27th tornado constant and comparing adequacy ratings for weak (EF0-EF1), strong (EF2-EF3) and violent (EF4-EF5) tornadoes. There was also a significant difference when comparing future tornado refuge plans of those same participants to the adequacy ratings for weak, strong and violent tornadoes. The tornado refuge rubric is then revised into a six-class, hierarchical Tornado Watch Scale (TWS) from Level 0 to Level 5 based on the likelihood of high-impact or low-impact severe weather events containing weak, strong or violent tornadoes. These levels represent maximum expected tornado intensity and include tornado safety recommendations from the tornado refuge rubric. Audio recordings similar to those used in current National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather radio communications were developed to correspond to three levels of the TWS, a current Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tornado watch and a particularly dangerous situation (PDS) tornado watch. These were then used in interviews of Alabama residents to determine how changes to the information contained in the watch statements would affect each participant's tornado safety actions and perception of event danger. Results from interview participants (n=38) indicate a strong preference (97.37%) for the TWS when compared to current tornado watch and PDS tornado watch statements. Results also show the TWS elicits more adequate safety decisions from participants

The Storm Surge and Sub-Grid Inundation Modeling in New York City during Hurricane Sandy

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Harry V. Wang

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy inflicted heavy damage in New York City and the New Jersey coast as the second costliest storm in history. A large-scale, unstructured grid storm tide model, Semi-implicit Eulerian Lagrangian Finite Element (SELFE, was used to hindcast water level variation during Hurricane Sandy in the mid-Atlantic portion of the U.S. East Coast. The model was forced by eight tidal constituents at the model’s open boundary, 1500 km away from the coast, and the wind and pressure fields from atmospheric model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS provided by Weatherflow Inc. The comparisons of the modeled storm tide with the NOAA gauge stations from Montauk, NY, Long Island Sound, encompassing New York Harbor, Atlantic City, NJ, to Duck, NC, were in good agreement, with an overall root mean square error and relative error in the order of 15–20 cm and 5%–7%, respectively. Furthermore, using large-scale model outputs as the boundary conditions, a separate sub-grid model that incorporates LIDAR data for the major portion of the New York City was also set up to investigate the detailed inundation process. The model results compared favorably with USGS’ Hurricane Sandy Mapper database in terms of its timing, local inundation area, and the depth of the flooding water. The street-level inundation with water bypassing the city building was created and the maximum extent of horizontal inundation was calculated, which was within 30 m of the data-derived estimate by USGS.

Tornado Strikes Southern Maryland

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

Evening light catches the tops of towering thunderheads over the Mid-Atlantic states on April 28, 2002. The powerful storms spawned several tornados, one of which was classified as an F4 tornado. The powerful tornado touched down in the southern Maryland town of La Plata, destroying most of the historic downtown. The twister-one of the strongest ever to hit the state-beat a 24-mile swath running west to east through the state and claimed at least three lives. The image above was taken by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) at 7:15 PM Eastern Daylight Savings Time. A large version of the animation shows more detail. (5.9 MB Quicktime) Image courtesy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the GOES Project Science Office. Animation by Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC.

Why do tornados and hailstorms rest on weekends?

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenfeld, Daniel; Bell, Thomas L.

2011-10-01

This study shows for the first time statistical evidence that when anthropogenic aerosols over the eastern United States during summertime are at their weekly mid-week peak, tornado and hailstorm activity there is also near its weekly maximum. The weekly cycle in summertime storm activity for 1995-2009 was found to be statistically significant and unlikely to be due to natural variability. It correlates well with previously observed weekly cycles of other measures of storm activity. The pattern of variability supports the hypothesis that air pollution aerosols invigorate deep convective clouds in a moist, unstable atmosphere, to the extent of inducing production of large hailstones and tornados. This is caused by the effect of aerosols on cloud drop nucleation, making cloud drops smaller and hydrometeors larger. According to simulations, the larger ice hydrometeors contribute to more hail. The reduced evaporation from the larger hydrometeors produces weaker cold pools. Simulations have shown that too cold and fast-expanding pools inhibit the formation of tornados. The statistical observations suggest that this might be the mechanism by which the weekly modulation in pollution aerosols is causing the weekly cycle in severe convective storms during summer over the eastern United States. Although we focus here on the role of aerosols, they are not a primary atmospheric driver of tornados and hailstorms but rather modulate them in certain conditions.

Tornadoes: Nature's Most Violent Storms. A Preparedness Guide Including Safety Information for Schools.

Science.gov (United States)

American National Red Cross, Washington, DC.

This preparedness guide explains and describes tornadoes, and includes safety information for schools. A tornado is defined as a violently rotating column of air extending from a thunderstorm to the ground. The guide explains the cause of tornadoes, provides diagrams of how they form, describes variations of tornadoes, and classifies tornadoes by…

Teacher Guidelines for Helping Students after a Tornado

Science.gov (United States)

National Child Traumatic Stress Network, 2013

2013-01-01

Being in a tornado can be very frightening, and the days, weeks, and months following the storm can be very stressful. Most families recover over time, especially with the support of relatives, friends, and their community. But different families may have different experiences during and after a tornado, and how long it takes them to recover will…

Wind and tornado guidelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, J.R.

1989-01-01

The objective of the Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Project is to provide guidance and criteria for design of new facilities and for evaluation of existing ones subjected to extreme winds, earthquakes, and floods. This paper describes the treatment of wind and tornado hazards. Four facility-use categories are defined which represent increasing levels of risk to personnel or the environment in the event of a high wind event. Facilities are assigned to a particular category, depending on their mission, value, or toxic material content. The assigned facility-use category determines the design and evaluation criteria. The criteria are based on probabilistic hazard assessment. Performance goals are also specified for each facility-use category. A uniform approach to design wind loads, based on the ANSI A58.1-1982 standard, allows treatment of high winds and hurricane and tornado winds in a similar manner. Based on the wind hazard models, some sites must account for the possibility of tornadoes while others do not. Atmospheric pressure changes and missiles must be taken into account when considering tornadoes. The design and evaluation guidelines are designed to establish consistent levels of risk for different natural phenomena hazards and for facilities at different geographical locations

National Weather Service

Science.gov (United States)

... GIS International Weather Cooperative Observers Storm Spotters Tsunami Facts and Figures National Water Center WEATHER SAFETY NOAA Weather Radio StormReady Heat Lightning Hurricanes Thunderstorms Tornadoes Rip Currents Floods Winter Weather ...

Sedimentological and Micropaleontological Characteristics of the 2015 Hurricane Joaquin Deposit and their Implications for Long-Term Records of Storms and Tsunamis Impacting the Caribbean

Science.gov (United States)

Kosciuch, T. J.; Pilarczyk, J.; Reinhardt, E. G.; Mauviel, A.; Aucoin, C. D.

2017-12-01

The uncertainty of extreme wave events in the Caribbean was highlighted in October 2015 when Hurricane Joaquin tracked through, or near, several islands (e.g., Bahamas, Haiti, Turks and Caicos) as a Category 4 storm. The short observational record of landfalling hurricanes is insufficient in preparing many of these islands for such a rare, intense storm. Examining the sediments deposited by recent landfalling hurricanes assists the understanding of the long-term spatial and temporal variations in storm frequency and intensity. However, the interpretation of prehistoric hurricane deposits in the Caribbean is complicated by the possibility of tsunami deposits (e.g., Puerto Rico Trench, 1755 Lisbon Tsunami), which are similar in composition and difficult to differentiate from storm sediments. To circumvent this problem, we describe the microfossil and sedimentary characteristics of a modern storm analogue, the Hurricane Joaquin deposit, from San Salvador Island in the Bahamas and use it as a basis for interpreting a series of 10 anomalous sand deposits found in a coastal pond. San Salvador is a small (160 km2) island in the Bahamas with a history of landfalling hurricanes and tsunamis. On 4 October 2015, Hurricane Joaquin came within 7 km of San Salvador, inundating most of its coastline and depositing two distinct layers: a sand layer and a boulder layer. The sand layer was 12 to 104 cm thick, extended 135 m inland, and consisted of fine to medium sand. The sand layer contained high abundances of foraminifera, including Homotrema rubra, a foraminifer that lives on the reef and is detached by large waves. The presence of well-preserved fragments of Homotrema within the Joaquin deposit suggests transport from the reef and rapid burial. The boulder layer included large clasts (30 to 200 cm in length) that were imbricated perpendicular to the shoreline and extended 135 m inland. The boulder layer was more laterally extensive (1020 m) than the sand layer (110 m). The

Automatic urban debris zone extraction from post-hurricane very high-resolution satellite and aerial imagery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shasha Jiang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Automated remote sensing methods have not gained widespread usage for damage assessment after hurricane events, especially for low-rise buildings, such as individual houses and small businesses. Hurricane wind, storm surge with waves, and inland flooding have unique damage signatures, further complicating the development of robust automated assessment methodologies. As a step toward realizing automated damage assessment for multi-hazard hurricane events, this paper presents a mono-temporal image classification methodology that quickly and accurately differentiates urban debris from non-debris areas using post-event images. Three classification approaches are presented: spectral, textural, and combined spectral–textural. The methodology is demonstrated for Gulfport, Mississippi, using IKONOS panchromatic satellite and NOAA aerial colour imagery collected after 2005 Hurricane Katrina. The results show that multivariate texture information significantly improves debris class detection performance by decreasing the confusion between debris and other land cover types, and the extracted debris zone accurately captures debris distribution. Additionally, the extracted debris boundary is approximately equivalent regardless of imagery type, demonstrating the flexibility and robustness of the debris mapping methodology. While the test case presents results for hurricane hazards, the proposed methodology is generally developed and expected to be effective in delineating debris zones for other natural hazards, including tsunamis, tornadoes, and earthquakes.

Tornadoes and Other Big Winds.

Science.gov (United States)

Markle, Sandra

1983-01-01

Information is presented for teaching about the formation of tornadoes and their effects. Ideas for relevant class discussion topics, writing assignments, and experiments to illustrate how temperature and air pressure changes involved in the storms work are also given. (PP)

Science and the storms: The USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Farris, G. S.; Smith, G.J.; Crane, M.P.; Demas, C.R.; Robbins, L.L.; Lavoie, D.L.

2007-01-01

This report is designed to give a view of the immediate response of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to four major hurricanes of 2005: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Some of this response took place days after the hurricanes; other responses included fieldwork and analysis through the spring. While hurricane science continues within the USGS, this overview of work following these hurricanes reveals how a Department of the Interior bureau quickly brought together a diverse array of its scientists and technologies to assess and analyze many hurricane effects. Topics vary from flooding and water quality to landscape and ecosystem impacts, from geotechnical reconnaissance to analyzing the collapse of bridges and estimating the volume of debris. Thus, the purpose of this report is to inform the American people of the USGS science that is available and ongoing in regard to hurricanes. It is the hope that such science will help inform the decisions of those citizens and officials tasked with coastal restoration and planning for future hurricanes. Chapter 1 is an essay establishing the need for science in building a resilient coast. The second chapter includes some hurricane facts that provide hurricane terminology, history, and maps of the four hurricanes’ paths. Chapters that follow give the scientific response of USGS to the storms. Both English and metric measurements are used in the articles in anticipation of both general and scientific audiences in the United States and elsewhere. Chapter 8 is a compilation of relevant ongoing and future hurricane work. The epilogue marks the 2-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. An index of authors follows the report to aid in finding articles that are cross-referenced within the report. In addition to performing the science needed to understand the effects of hurricanes, USGS employees helped in the rescue of citizens by boat and through technology by “geoaddressing” 911 calls after Katrina and Rita so that other

Measuring storm tide and high-water marks caused by Hurricane Sandy in New York: Chapter 2

Science.gov (United States)

Simonson, Amy E.; Behrens, Riley

2015-01-01

In response to Hurricane Sandy, personnel from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary network of storm-tide sensors from Virginia to Maine. During the storm, real-time water levels were available from tide gages and rapid-deployment gages (RDGs). After the storm, USGS scientists retrieved the storm-tide sensors and RDGs and surveyed high-water marks. These data demonstrate that the timing of peak storm surge relative to astronomical tide was extremely important in southeastern New York. For example, along the south shores of New York City and western Suffolk County, the peak storm surge of 6–9 ft generally coincided with the astronomical high tide, which resulted in substantial coastal flooding. In the Peconic Estuary and northern Nassau County, however, the peak storm surge of 9 ft and nearly 12 ft, respectively, nearly coincided with normal low tide, which helped spare these communities from more severe coastal flooding.

Examining Hurricane Track Length and Stage Duration Since 1980

Science.gov (United States)

Fandrich, K. M.; Pennington, D.

2017-12-01

Each year, tropical systems impact thousands of people worldwide. Current research shows a correlation between the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and the changing climate. However, little is known about other prominent hurricane features. This includes information about hurricane track length (the total distance traveled from tropical depression through a hurricane's final category assignment) and how this distance may have changed with time. Also unknown is the typical duration of a hurricane stage, such as tropical storm to category one, and if the time spent in each stage has changed in recent decades. This research aims to examine changes in hurricane stage duration and track lengths for the 319 storms in NOAA's National Ocean Service Hurricane Reanalysis dataset that reached Category 2 - 5 from 1980 - 2015. Based on evident ocean warming, it is hypothesized that a general increase in track length with time will be detected, thus modern hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than past hurricanes. It is also expected that stage durations are decreasing with time so that hurricanes mature faster than in past decades. For each storm, coordinates are acquired at 4-times daily intervals throughout its duration and track lengths are computed for each 6-hour period. Total track lengths are then computed and storms are analyzed graphically and statistically by category for temporal track length changes. The stage durations of each storm are calculated as the time difference between two consecutive stages. Results indicate that average track lengths for Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes are increasing through time. These findings show that these hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than earlier Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes. In contrast, average track lengths for Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes are decreasing through time, showing less distance traveled than earlier decades. Stage durations for all Cat 2, 4 and 5 storms decrease through the decades but Cat 3 storms show a

Meteorological and engineering approach to the regionalization of tornado wind criteria for nuclear power plant design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1975-01-01

Data on general meteorological factors governing tornado frequency and intensity in various locations throughout the USA are revised. A climatological model of multiple outbreak and long track tornadoes and the relation between the speed of a hurricane and the frequency of tornado occurrence over land and sea are discussed. Data from a structural engineering assessment of tornado damage are summarized and applications of the data for the development of design criteria for buildings and nuclear power plants to minimize tornado damage are suggested. It was concluded that it is very difficult to predict tornado risk and alternate methods and areas of study are presented for consideration

Excitation of seismic waves by a tornado

Science.gov (United States)

Valovcin, A.; Tanimoto, T.; Twardzik, C.

2016-12-01

Tornadoes are among the most common natural disasters to occur in the United States. Various methods are currently used in tornado forecasting, including surface weather stations, weather balloons and satellite and Doppler radar. These methods work for detecting possible locations of tornadoes and funnel clouds, but knowing when a tornado has touched down still strongly relies on reports from spotters. Studying tornadoes seismically offers an opportunity to know when a tornado has touched down without requiring an eyewitness report. With the installation of Earthscope's Transportable Array (TA), there have been an increased number of tornadoes that have come within close range of seismometers. We have identified seismic signals corresponding to three tornadoes that occurred in 2011 in the central US. These signals were recorded by the TA station closest to each of the tornado tracks. For each tornado, the amplitudes of the seismic signals increase when the storm is in contact with the ground, and continue until the tornado lifts off some time later. This occurs at both high and low frequencies. In this study we will model the seismic signal generated by a tornado at low frequencies (below 0.1 Hz). We will begin by modeling the signal from the Joplin tornado, an EF5 rated tornado which occurred in Missouri on May 22, 2011. By approximating the tornado as a vertical force, we model the generated signal as the tornado moves along its track and changes in strength. By modeling the seismic waveform generated by a tornado, we can better understand the seismic-excitation process. It could also provide a way to quantitatively compare tornadoes. Additional tornadoes to model include the Calumet-El Reno-Piedmont-Guthrie (CEPG) and Chickasa-Blanchard-Newcastle (CBN) tornadoes, both of which occurred on May 24, 2011 in Oklahoma.

Climatological and regional characteristics of supercell tornado occurrence based on a long-term reanalysis of tornado parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugimoto, Soichiro; Nohara, Daisuke; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

2016-01-01

This study investigates tornado climatology in Japan in terms of the regionalization of tornado intensity. A 50-year reanalysis dataset (the horizontal resolution of 5 km and hourly interval), produced by downscaling using the WRF mesoscale model and ECMWF reanalysis datasets, is used to estimate tornado parameters such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and 3-km storm relative helicity (SReH). Energy helicity index (EHI) is also calculated as a composite parameter. Based on a long-term reanalysis data of tornado parameters, the number of times simultaneously exceeding threshold values is counted for SReH and CAPE parameters. The same procedure is done for EHI parameter. The thresholds are set from meteorological analysis of F3 tornadoes that are currently the most intense in Japan. Results indicate that the Pacific side of Japan along the south coast is the most favorable region for the occurrence of the most intense scale of tornado. This is consistent with the fact that the paths of most of all F3 tornadoes are include in this high-frequency region in exceeding thresholds. In other hand, approximately one-order smaller frequency in exceeding than the Pacific sides is evaluated in the Japan Sea side, which suggests topographic effects of blocking humid unstable air mass transported from the Pacific Ocean. The tornado intensity region evaluated by our approach is useful for a probabilistic hazard analysis of tornado wind speeds in the implementation of impact assessment of tornadoes for nuclear power plants. (author)

Physical aspects of Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Scatena, F.N.; Larsen, Matthew C.

1991-01-01

On 18 September 1989 the western part ofHurricane Hugo crossed eastern Puerto Rico and the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF). Storm-facing slopes on the northeastern part of the island that were within 15 km of the eye and received greater than 200 mm of rain were most affected by the storm. In the LEF and nearby area, recurrence intervals associated with Hurricane Hugo were 50 yr for wind velocity, 10 to 31 yr for stream discharge, and 5 yr for rainfall intensity. To compare the magnitudes of the six hurricanes to pass over PuertoRico since 1899, 3 indices were developed using the standardized values of the product of: the maximum sustained wind speed at San Juan squared and storm duration; the square of the product of the maximum sustained wind velocity at San Juan and the ratio of the distance between the hurricane eye and San Juan to the distance between the eye and percentage of average annual rainfall delivered by the storm. Based on these indices, HurricaneHugo was of moderate intensity. However, because of the path of Hurricane Hugo, only one of these six storms (the 1932 storm) caused more damage to the LEF than Hurricane Hugo. Hurricanes of Hugo's magnitude are estimated to pass over the LEF once every 50-60 yr, on average. 

HURRICANE AND SEVERE STORM SENTINEL (HS3) GLOBAL HAWK ADVANCED VERTICAL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILING SYSTEM (AVAPS) DROPSONDE SYSTEM V2

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Global Hawk Advanced Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System (AVAPS) Dropsonde System dataset was collected by the...

Directional analysis of the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy 2012, with applications to Charleston, New Orleans, and the Philippines.

Science.gov (United States)

Drews, Carl; Galarneau, Thomas J

2015-01-01

Hurricane Sandy in late October 2012 drove before it a storm surge that rose to 4.28 meters above mean lower low water at The Battery in lower Manhattan, and flooded the Hugh L. Carey automobile tunnel between Brooklyn and The Battery. This study examines the surge event in New York Harbor using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model and the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave- Sediment Transport/Regional Ocean Modeling System (COAWST/ROMS). We present a new technique using directional analysis to calculate and display maps of a coastline's potential for storm surge; these maps are constructed from wind fields blowing from eight fixed compass directions. This analysis approximates the surge observed during Hurricane Sandy. The directional analysis is then applied to surge events at Charleston, South Carolina, New Orleans, Louisiana, and Tacloban City, the Philippines. Emergency managers could use these directional maps to prepare their cities for an approaching storm, on planning horizons from days to years.

Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Ning

Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

Hurricane feedback research may improve intensity forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Colin

2012-06-01

Forecasts of a hurricane's intensity are generally much less accurate than forecasts of its most likely path. Large-scale atmospheric patterns dictate where a hurricane will go and how quickly it will get there. The storm's intensity, however, depends on small-scale shifts in atmospheric stratification, upwelling rates, and other transient dynamics that are difficult to predict. Properly understanding the risk posed by an impending storm depends on having a firm grasp of all three properties: translational speed, intensity, and path. Drawing on 40 years of hurricane records representing 3090 different storms, Mei et al. propose that a hurricane's translational speed and intensity may be closely linked.

Impact of tornadoes on hospital admissions for acute cardiovascular events.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva-Palacios, Federico; Casanegra, Ana Isabel; Shapiro, Alan; Phan, Minh; Hawkins, Beau; Li, Ji; Stoner, Julie; Tafur, Alfonso

2015-11-01

There is a paucity of data describing cardiovascular events after tornado outbreaks. We proposed to study the effects of tornadoes on the incidence of cardiovascular events at a tertiary care institution. Hospital admission records from a single center situated in a tornado-prone area three months before and after a 2013 tornado outbreak were abstracted. To control for seasonal variation, we also abstracted data from the same period of the prior year (control). Hospital admissions for cardiovascular events (CVEs) including acute myocardial infarction, stroke and venous thromboembolism (VTE) were summated by zip codes, and compared by time period. There were 22,607 admissions analyzed, of which 6,705 (30%), 7,980 (35%), and 7,922 (35%) were during the pre-tornado, post-tornado, and control time frames, respectively. There were 344 CVE in the controls, 317 CVE in pre-tornado and 364 CVEs in post tornado periods. There was no difference in the prevalence of CVE during the post-tornado season compared with the control (PPR=1.05 95% CI: 0.91 to 1.21, p=0.50) or the pre-tornado season (PPR=0.96, 95% CI: 0.83 to 1.21, p=0.63). In conclusion, tornado outbreaks did not increase the prevalence of cardiovascular events. In contrast to the effect of hurricanes, implementation of a healthcare policy change directed toward the early treatment and prevention of cardiovascular events after tornadoes does not seem warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

2017-12-01

Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-01

Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-05

Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

Infrasonic Emissions From A Tornado

Science.gov (United States)

Petrin, Christopher; Elbing, Brian

2017-11-01

Tornadoes cause dozens of deaths and significant damage throughout the United States every year. Tornado-producing storm systems emit infrasound (sound at frequencies below human hearing) up to 2 hours before tornadogenesis. Weak atmospheric attenuation at these frequencies allows them to be detected hundreds of miles away. Hence, passive infrasonic monitoring may be used for long-range study of tornadogenesis. This requires characterization of infrasound during the life of a tornado and from other background sources. This is being accomplished as part of the Collaboration Leading Operational UAS Development for Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (CLOUD-MAP) project, a multi-university collaboration focused on the development and implementation of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and their integration with sensors for atmospheric measurement. This presentation will report findings from a fixed infrasonic microphone that has been continuously monitoring the atmosphere since September 2, 2016. Infrasound from a tornado that occurred 19 km from the microphone on May 11, 2017 will be presented as well as an overview of other infrasonic observations. This work was supported by NSF Grant 1539070.

Beyond Traditional Extreme Value Theory Through a Metastatistical Approach: Lessons Learned from Precipitation, Hurricanes, and Storm Surges

Science.gov (United States)

Marani, M.; Zorzetto, E.; Hosseini, S. R.; Miniussi, A.; Scaioni, M.

2017-12-01

The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is widely adopted irrespective of the properties of the stochastic process generating the extreme events. However, GEV presents several limitations, both theoretical (asymptotic validity for a large number of events/year or hypothesis of Poisson occurrences of Generalized Pareto events), and practical (fitting uses just yearly maxima or a few values above a high threshold). Here we describe the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD, Marani & Ignaccolo, 2015), which relaxes asymptotic or Poisson/GPD assumptions and makes use of all available observations. We then illustrate the flexibility of the MEVD by applying it to daily precipitation, hurricane intensity, and storm surge magnitude. Application to daily rainfall from a global raingauge network shows that MEVD estimates are 50% more accurate than those from GEV when the recurrence interval of interest is much greater than the observational period. This makes MEVD suited for application to satellite rainfall observations ( 20 yrs length). Use of MEVD on TRMM data yields extreme event patterns that are in better agreement with surface observations than corresponding GEV estimates.Applied to the HURDAT2 Atlantic hurricane intensity dataset, MEVD significantly outperforms GEV estimates of extreme hurricanes. Interestingly, the Generalized Pareto distribution used for "ordinary" hurricane intensity points to the existence of a maximum limit wind speed that is significantly smaller than corresponding physically-based estimates. Finally, we applied the MEVD approach to water levels generated by tidal fluctuations and storm surges at a set of coastal sites spanning different storm-surge regimes. MEVD yields accurate estimates of large quantiles and inferences on tail thickness (fat vs. thin) of the underlying distribution of "ordinary" surges. In summary, the MEVD approach presents a number of theoretical and practical advantages, and outperforms traditional

Radar observations of a tornado-spawning storm complex in Southeast Brazil and Meso-Eta forecasts of this extreme event

Science.gov (United States)

Held, Gerhard; Gomes, Jorge Luis; Gomes, Ana Maria

2014-05-01

During the early afternoon of 22 September 2013, severe storms, accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, heavy precipitation and intense lightning activity, devastated a region in the southeast State of São Paulo. Several extremely intense storm cells moved at up to 80 km/h east-southeastwards, ahead of a strong cold front approaching through Paraná, which created extremely unstable conditions that led to deep convection and overshooting towers up to 18 km. At least one of theses cells spawned a tornado when it reached the town of Taquarituba. The tornado traversed the town from south-southwest to north-northeast and was responsible for 63 people injured and two fatalities. Based on the damage reported, it was at least an F3 according to the Fujita scale. The objective of the present study is to characterize this severe thunderstorm event, using different types of data, and to evaluate the forecasts provided by the Meso-Eta model centered over Bauru. The pre-frontal and frontal convective cells were tracked throughout their life-time by IPMet's Doppler radars, which cover the western and central regions of the State São Paulo, as well as northern Paraná State. Radar volume scans, generated every 7,5 min, were processed with the TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting) Software, yielding the following preliminary results: as the storm complex traversed the Paranapanema River, which forms the border between the two states, the cells intensified drastically and shortly before reaching the town of Taquarituba, that particular cell displayed extremely strong radial shear just above the cloud base (about -20 to +35 m/s), which led to the formation of a deep meso-cyclone, from which the tornado spawned and touched down at around 14:30 LT (LT=UT-3h). Cell properties calculated by TITAN showed a drastic increase of VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid water content) from 13:52 LT (7,9 kg/m2) to a maximum of 61,8 kg/m2 at 14:15 LT. From 14

24 CFR 791.407 - Headquarters Reserve.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... needs resulting from natural and other disasters, including hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, high water, wind driven water, tidal waves, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, mudslides...

A Climatological Study of Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-01

extratropical cyclone by months in the Pacific basin. Most of the storms occur from October through March...hurricane force extratropical cyclone. Starting from left to right; the first column is the storm name, second column is the year, month, day, hour (UTC...2000 through 2007 illustrates that the number of hurricane-force extratropical cyclones is quite significant: approximately 500 storms , nearly evenly

On necessity of revaluation of nuclear power safety of Ukraine in the tornado hazardous areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skalozubov, V.I.; Gablaya, T.V.; Vasilchenko, S.V.; Kozlov, I.V.

2015-01-01

The article contains the main provisions regulating the tornado danger of objects of atomic energy, as well as analysis of the known results of evaluations of the impact of hurricanes on the safety of nuclear power plants of Ukraine, received in the ''before'' and ''post Fukushima'' periods. As a result of analysis is insufficient justification to the estimated frequency of passing tornadoes and exclusion from consideration emergency events with flooding of indus-trial sites under the influence of tornadoes not less than 2-th class intensity, defined a reassessment of NPP safety of Ukraine taking into account reasonably established performance tornado dangerous areas and lessons Fukushima accident

Tornado risk model for transmission line design

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Milford, RV

1997-11-01

Full Text Available is in combination with ice loading. The wind load used in most codes of practice and design recommendations for transmission line design have until recently been based almost exclusively on large-scale wind storms, which may include severe storms such as hurricanes...

Swamp tours in Louisiana post Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Dawn J. Schaffer; Craig A. Miller

2007-01-01

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita made landfall in southern Louisiana during August and September 2005. Prior to these storms, swamp tours were a growing sector of nature-based tourism that entertained visitors while teaching about local flora, fauna, and culture. This study determined post-hurricane operating status of tours, damage sustained, and repairs made. Differences...

Tornado: School Damage Tops $3 Million.

Science.gov (United States)

Story, Nancy

1999-01-01

Describes efforts by the publications staff of North Hall High School (Gainesville, Georgia) to cover a tornado and its aftermath. Notes that the first issue published after the storm focused in intrusion by the media. Suggests that an anniversary issues was more effective in achieving the emotional catharsis the school needed. (RS)

Hydrologic aspects of Hurricane Hugo in South Carolina, September 1989

Science.gov (United States)

Schuck-Kolben, R. E.; Cherry, R.N.

1995-01-01

Hurricane Hugo, with winds in excess of 135 miles per hour(mi/h), made landfall near Charleston, S.C., early on the morning of September 22, 1989. It was the most destructive hurricane ever experienced in South Carolina. The storm caused 35 deaths and $7 billion in property damage in South Carolina (Purvis, 1990).This report documents some hydrologic effects of Hurricane Hugo along the South Carolina coast. The report includes maps showing storm-tide stage and profiles of the maximum storm-tide stages along the outer coast. Storm-tide stage frequency information is presented and changes in beach morphology and water quality of coastal streams resulting from the storm are described.

Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kerry Milch

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Although the field has seen great advances in hurricane prediction and response, the economic toll from hurricanes on U.S. communities continues to rise. We present data from Hurricanes Earl (2010, Irene (2011, Isaac (2012, and Sandy (2012 to show that individual and household decisions contribute to this vulnerability. From phone surveys of residents in communities threatened by impending hurricanes, we identify five decision biases or obstacles that interfere with residents’ ability to protect themselves and minimize property damage: (1 temporal and spatial myopia, (2 poor mental models of storm risk, (3 gaps between objective and subjective probability estimates, (4 prior storm experience, and (5 social factors. We then discuss ways to encourage better decision making and reduce the economic and emotional impacts of hurricanes, using tools such as decision defaults (requiring residents to opt out of precautions rather than opt in and tailoring internet-based forecast information so that it is local, specific, and emphasizes impacts rather than probability.

A Coordinated USGS Science Response to Hurricane Sandy

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, S.; Buxton, H. T.; Andersen, M.; Dean, T.; Focazio, M. J.; Haines, J.; Hainly, R. A.

2013-12-01

In late October 2012, Hurricane Sandy came ashore during a spring high tide on the New Jersey coastline, delivering hurricane-force winds, storm tides exceeding 19 feet, driving rain, and plummeting temperatures. Hurricane Sandy resulted in 72 direct fatalities in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, and widespread and substantial physical, environmental, ecological, social, and economic impacts estimated at near $50 billion. Before the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, the USGS provided forecasts of potential coastal change; collected oblique aerial photography of pre-storm coastal morphology; deployed storm-surge sensors, rapid-deployment streamgages, wave sensors, and barometric pressure sensors; conducted Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) aerial topographic surveys of coastal areas; and issued a landslide alert for landslide prone areas. During the storm, Tidal Telemetry Networks provided real-time water-level information along the coast. Long-term networks and rapid-deployment real-time streamgages and water-quality monitors tracked river levels and changes in water quality. Immediately after the storm, the USGS serviced real-time instrumentation, retrieved data from over 140 storm-surge sensors, and collected other essential environmental data, including more than 830 high-water marks mapping the extent and elevation of the storm surge. Post-storm lidar surveys documented storm impacts to coastal barriers informing response and recovery and providing a new baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The USGS Hazard Data Distribution System served storm-related information from many agencies on the Internet on a daily basis. Immediately following Hurricane Sandy the USGS developed a science plan, 'Meeting the Science Needs of the Nation in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy-A U.S. Geological Survey Science Plan for Support of Restoration and Recovery'. The plan will ensure continuing coordination of internal USGS activities as well as

Physical Patterns Associated with 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Fernanda; Salem, Thomas

2012-02-01

The National Weather Service office in Memphis, Tennessee has aimed their efforts to improve severe tornado forecasting. Everything is not known about tornadogenesis, but one thing is: tornadoes tend to form within supercell thunderstorms. Hence, 27 April 2011 and 25 May 2011 were days when a Tornado Outbreak was expected to arise. Although 22 tornadoes struck the region on 27 April 2011, only 1 impacted the area on 25 May 2011. In order to understand both events, comparisons of their physical features were made. These parameters were studied using the Weather Event Simulator system and the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction database. This research concentrated on the Surface Frontal Analysis, NAM40 700mb Dew-Points, NAM80 250mb Wind Speed and NAM20 500mb Vorticity images as well as 0-6 km Shear, MUCAPE and VGP mesoscale patterns. As result of this research a Dry-Line ahead of a Cold Front, Dew-points 5C and higher, and high Vorticity values^ were synoptic patterns that influenced to the formation of supercell tornadoes. Finally, MUCAPE and VGP favored the possibility of tornadoes occurrence on 25 May 2011, but shear was the factor that made 27 April 2011 a day for a Tornado Outbreak weather event.

Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to Modeling Tornado Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, M.; Doe, R. K.

2017-12-01

Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to assess storm damage is a useful research tool. Benefits include their ability to access remote or impassable areas post-storm, identify unknown damages and assist with more detailed site investigations and rescue efforts. Technological advancement of UAVs mean that they can capture high resolution images often at an affordable price. These images can be used to create 3D environments to better interpret and delineate damages from large areas that would have been difficult in ground surveys. This research presents the results of a rapid response site investigation of the 29 April 2017 Canton, Texas, USA, tornado using low cost UAVs. This was a multiple, high impact tornado event measuring EF4 at maximum. Rural farmland was chosen as a challenging location to test both equipment and methodology. Such locations provide multiple impacts at a variety of scales including structural and vegetation damage and even animal fatalities. The 3D impact models allow for a more comprehensive study prior to clean-up. The results show previously unseen damages and better quantify damage impacts at the local level. 3D digital track swaths were created allowing for a more accurate track width determination. These results demonstrate how effective the use of low cost UAVs can be for rapid response storm damage assessments, the high quality of data they can achieve, and how they can help us better visualize tornado site investigations.

Hurricane Sandy science plan: impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Caskie, Sarah A.

2013-01-01

Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry • Impacts to coastal beaches and barriers

A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Vincent Y S; Arhonditsis, George B; Sills, David M L; Gough, William A; Auld, Heather

2015-03-25

Tornadoes represent one of nature's most hazardous phenomena that have been responsible for significant destruction and devastating fatalities. Here we present a Bayesian modelling approach for elucidating the spatiotemporal patterns of tornado activity in North America. Our analysis shows a significant increase in the Canadian Prairies and the Northern Great Plains during the summer, indicating a clear transition of tornado activity from the United States to Canada. The linkage between monthly-averaged atmospheric variables and likelihood of tornado events is characterized by distinct seasonality; the convective available potential energy is the predominant factor in the summer; vertical wind shear appears to have a strong signature primarily in the winter and secondarily in the summer; and storm relative environmental helicity is most influential in the spring. The present probabilistic mapping can be used to draw inference on the likelihood of tornado occurrence in any location in North America within a selected time period of the year.

Tornado intensity estimated from damage path dimensions.

Science.gov (United States)

Elsner, James B; Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, Ian J

2014-01-01

The Newcastle/Moore and El Reno tornadoes of May 2013 are recent reminders of the destructive power of tornadoes. A direct estimate of a tornado's power is difficult and dangerous to get. An indirect estimate on a categorical scale is available from a post-storm survery of the damage. Wind speed bounds are attached to the scale, but the scale is not adequate for analyzing trends in tornado intensity separate from trends in tornado frequency. Here tornado intensity on a continuum is estimated from damage path length and width, which are measured on continuous scales and correlated to the EF rating. The wind speeds on the EF scale are treated as interval censored data and regressed onto the path dimensions and fatalities. The regression model indicates a 25% increase in expected intensity over a threshold intensity of 29 m s(-1) for a 100 km increase in path length and a 17% increase in expected intensity for a one km increase in path width. The model shows a 43% increase in the expected intensity when fatalities are observed controlling for path dimensions. The estimated wind speeds correlate at a level of .77 (.34, .93) [95% confidence interval] with a small sample of wind speeds estimated independently from a doppler radar calibration. The estimated wind speeds allow analyses to be done on the tornado database that are not possible with the categorical scale. The modeled intensities can be used in climatology and in environmental and engineering applications. Research is needed to understand the upward trends in path length and width.

Tornado intensity estimated from damage path dimensions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James B Elsner

Full Text Available The Newcastle/Moore and El Reno tornadoes of May 2013 are recent reminders of the destructive power of tornadoes. A direct estimate of a tornado's power is difficult and dangerous to get. An indirect estimate on a categorical scale is available from a post-storm survery of the damage. Wind speed bounds are attached to the scale, but the scale is not adequate for analyzing trends in tornado intensity separate from trends in tornado frequency. Here tornado intensity on a continuum is estimated from damage path length and width, which are measured on continuous scales and correlated to the EF rating. The wind speeds on the EF scale are treated as interval censored data and regressed onto the path dimensions and fatalities. The regression model indicates a 25% increase in expected intensity over a threshold intensity of 29 m s(-1 for a 100 km increase in path length and a 17% increase in expected intensity for a one km increase in path width. The model shows a 43% increase in the expected intensity when fatalities are observed controlling for path dimensions. The estimated wind speeds correlate at a level of .77 (.34, .93 [95% confidence interval] with a small sample of wind speeds estimated independently from a doppler radar calibration. The estimated wind speeds allow analyses to be done on the tornado database that are not possible with the categorical scale. The modeled intensities can be used in climatology and in environmental and engineering applications. Research is needed to understand the upward trends in path length and width.

Residential tornado safe room from commodity wood products – impact and wind pressure testing

Science.gov (United States)

Robert H. Falk; James J. Bridwell; C. Adam Senalik; Marshall Begel

2018-01-01

A tornado safe room is a shelter designed to provide protection during a tornado and is specifically engineered to resist the high wind pressures and debris impact generated by these high wind events. The required performance criteria of these shelters has been established and is found in the International Code Council Standard for the Design and Construction of Storm...

Investigation and Characterization of Acoustic Emissions of Tornadoes Using Arrays of Infrasound Sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Frazier, W. G.; Talmadge, C. L.; Waxler, R.; Knupp, K. R.; Goudeau, B.; Hetzer, C. H.

2017-12-01

Working in co-ordination with the NOAA Vortex Southeast (Vortex SE) research program, 9 infrasound sensor arrays were deployed at fixed sites across North Alabama, South-central Tennessee, and Northwest Georgia during March and April of 2017, to investigate the emission and characterization of infrasonic acoustic energy from tornadoes and related phenomena. Each array consisted of seven broadband acoustic sensors with calibrated frequency response from 0.02 Hz to 200 Hz. The arrays were configured in a pattern such that accurate bearings to acoustic sources could be obtained over a broad range of frequencies (nominally from 1 Hz to 100 Hz). Data were collected synchronously at a rate of 1000 samples per second. On 22 April 2017 a line of strong storms passed directly through the area being monitored producing at least three verified tornadoes. Two of these were rated at EF0 and the other an EF1. Subsequent processing of the data from several of the arrays revealed acoustic emissions from the tornadic storms ranging in frequencies below 1 Hz to frequencies greater than 10 Hz. Accurate bearings to the storms have been calculated from distances greater than 60 km. Preliminary analysis has revealed that continuous emissions occurred prior to the estimated touchdown times, while the storms were on the ground, and for short periods after the tornadoes lifted; however, the strongest emissions appeared to occur while the storms were on the ground. One of the storms passed near two arrays simultaneously, and therefore accurate an accurate track of the storm as it moved has been obtained only using the infrasound measurements. Initial results from the analysis of the infrasound data will be presented. Under Vortex SE meteorological data was collected on a large suite of sensors. Correlations between the infrasound data and the meteorological data will be investigated and discussed.

The effects of hurricanes on birds, with special reference to Caribbean islands

Science.gov (United States)

Wiley, J.W.; Wunderle, J.M.

1993-01-01

Cyclonic storms, variously called typhoons, cyclones, or hurricanes (henceforth, hurricanes), are common in many parts of the world, where their frequent occurrence can have both direct and indirect effects on bird populations. Direct effects of hurricanes include mortality from exposure to hurricane winds, rains, and storm surges, and geographic displacement of individuals by storm winds. Indirect effects become apparent in the storm's aftermath and include loss of food supplies or foraging substrates; loss of nests and nest or roost sites; increased vulnerability to predation; microclimate changes; and increased conflict with humans. The short-term response of bird populations to hurricane damage, before changes in plant succession, includes shifts in diet, foraging sites or habitats, and reproductive changes. Bird populations may show long-term responses to changes in plant succession as second-growth vegetation increases in storm-damaged old-growth forests. The greatest stress of a hurricane to most upland terrestrial bird populations occurs after its passage rather than during its impact. The most important effect of a hurricane is the destruction of vegetation, which secondarily affects wildlife in the storm's aftermath. The most vulnerable terrestrial wildlife populations have a diet of nectar, fruit, or seeds; nest, roost, or forage on large old trees; require a closed forest canopy; have special microclimate requirements and/or live in a habitat in which vegetation has a slow recovery rate. Small populations with these traits are at greatest risk to hurricane-induced extinction, particularly if they exist in small isolated habitat fragments. Recovery of avian populations from hurricane effects is partially dependent on the extent and degree of vegetation damage as well as its rate of recovery. Also, the reproductive rate of the remnant local population and recruitment from undisturbed habitat patches influence the rate at which wildlife populations recover

Hurricane Isaac: observations and analysis of coastal change

Science.gov (United States)

Guy, Kristy K.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara S.; Morgan, Karen L.M.

2013-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical process of interest is sediment transport that is driven by waves, currents, and storm surge associated with storms. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to impact parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology reflects the coastal changes associated with extreme-storm processes. Relevant geomorphic variables that are observable before and after storms include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to quantify coastal change and are used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms (Stockdon and others, 2007). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH) project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/national-assessment/) provides hazard information to those concerned about the Nation’s coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. Extreme-storm research is a component of the NACCH project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/) that includes development of predictive understanding, vulnerability assessments using models, and updated observations in response to specific storm events. In particular, observations were made to determine morphological changes associated with Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in the United States first at Southwest Pass, at the mouth of the Mississippi River, at 0000 August 29, 2012 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) and again, 8 hours later, west of Port Fourchon, Louisiana (Berg, 2013). Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography

Tornadoes Strike Northern Wisconsin

Science.gov (United States)

2007-01-01

A series of tornadoes ripped through the Upper Midwest region of the United States in the evening of June 7, 2007. At least five different tornadoes touched down in Wisconsin, according to the Associated Press, one of which tore through the Bear Paw Resort in northern Wisconsin. Despite dropping as much as fifteen centimeters (six inches) of rain in some places and baseball-size hail in others, authorities were reporting no deaths attributable to the storm system, and only a smattering of injuries, but considerable property damage in some areas. When the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite observed the area on June 9, 2007, the track torn through the woods by one of the tornadoes stands out quite clearly. This photo-like image uses data collected by MODIS in the normal human vision range to give a familiar natural-looking appearance. The landscape is largely a checkerboard of farms, towns, roads, and cities. The pale land is predominantly farmland where crops have not fully grown in yet. Dark blue shows the winding path of rivers and lakes dotting the landscape. The large blue lake on the east (right) side of the image is Lake Michigan. Towns and cities, including the city of Green Bay, are gray. To the north side, farmland gives way to dark green as land use shifts from agriculture to the Menominee Indian Reservation and Nicolet National Forest. The diagonal slash through the dark green forested land shows the tornado track. Bare land was revealed where the tornado tore down trees or stripped vegetation off the branches. The high-resolution image provided above is at MODIS' full spatial resolution (level of detail) of 250 meters per pixel. The MODIS Rapid Response System provides this image at additional resolutions.

Tornadoes and Lightning and Floods, Oh My! Weather-Related Web Sites for K-12 Science Lessons.

Science.gov (United States)

Matkins, Juanita Jo; Murphy, Denise

1999-01-01

Reviews 30 weather-related Web sites, including readability level, under the subjects of air pressure, bad meteorology, clouds, droughts, floods, hurricanes, lightning, seasons, temperature, thunderstorms, tornadoes, water cycle, weather instruments, weather on other planets, and wind. (LRW)

Miami's Tequesta Site: Could It Be a Native American Study Site For Natural Periodicities Associated With Tornados, Hurricanes, or Earthquakes?

Science.gov (United States)

Mac Dougall, Jean S.; Mc Leod, David M.; Mc Leod, Roger D.

2002-10-01

Florida invested in preserving the Tequesta Indians' "Stonehenge-like" site along the Miami River. Direct observation, and telecast reports, show that a strong association exists between this area and Native American place names, hurricanes, tornados, a waterspout, and other nearby phenomena. Electromagnetic stimulation of human nervous systems in areas like these, discernable by appropriately sensitive individuals when these types of events occur, could plausibly account for some correct "predictions" of events like earthquakes. Various sensory modalities may be activated there. It may be important to understand other historic aspects associated with cultural artifacts like Miami's Tequesta remains. If it also generates instrumentally detectable signals that correlate with visual, "auditory," or nerve ending "tinglings" like those cited by the psychiatrist Arthur Guirdham in books like his Obsessions, applied physicists could partly vindicate the investment and also provide a net return. Society and comparative religious study may benefit.

Systematic Study of the Failure of a Light-Frame Wood Roof in a Tornado

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christine Standohar-Alfano

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Tornadoes are a particularly devastating natural hazard that affect communities across the United States, particularly the Midwest and South. They are unique from an engineering point-of-view due to their very low probability of occurrence but often highly destructive consequences. The 2011 season was particularly devastating to the Southeastern portion of the U.S. This paper presents a single case study of a 2012 tornado that struck a single large rural light-frame wood house with an unconventional roof system. A fragility methodology was used as a tool to probabilistically study the loss of the roof system, and bound an Enhanced Fujita (EF scale rating of the tornado. The tornado was initially rated as an EF3 tornado by the U.S. National Weather Service. However, following a detailed site inspection verified with numerical structural models, the tornado was downgraded to an EF2 tornado. As expected, the use of nail connections in a roof-to-wall connection resulted in a weaker link compared to a hurricane clip. The approach presented in this paper can be used as a supplement to the EF rating provided by U.S. National Weather Service meteorologists when unusual conditions in either the structure or surroundings exists.

Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

2016-12-01

The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

Spotter's Guide for Identifying and Reporting Severe Local Storms.

Science.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (DOC), Rockville, MD.

This guide is designed to assist personnel working in the National Weather Service's Severe Local Storm Spotter Networks in identifying and reporting severe local storms. Provided are pictures of cloud types for severe storms including tornadoes, hail, thunder, lightning, heavy rains, and waterspouts. Instructions for key indications to watch for…

Drivers of Complexity in Humanitarian Operations

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-04

shaking) Volcano Volcanic eruption General Flood Flash flood Mass movement wet Landslide Mudslide Extratropical cyclone (winter storm ) Local storm Blizzard...Type Rank Count Drought 1 4 Epidemic 2 0 Viral Infectious Diseases 3 2 Cold Wave 4 2 Heat Wave 5 7 Extratropical  Cyclone (Winter  Storm ) 6 1 Tropical...catastrophe (including any hurricane, tornado, storm , high water, wind-driven water, tidal wave, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, mudslide

Hurricane Ike: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

Science.gov (United States)

Doran, Kara S.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Serafin, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with the storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, and wave climate. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and large waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to those processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is equally important to the coastal change observed during extreme storm events. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes), strives to provide hazard information to those interested in the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure coastal changes associated with Hurricane Ike, which made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on September 13, 2008. Methods of observation included aerial photography and airborne topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline

Massive pediatric neurosurgical injuries and lessons learned following a tornado disaster in Alabama.

Science.gov (United States)

Chern, Joshua J; Miller, Joseph H; Tubbs, R Shane; Whisenhunt, Thomas R; Johnston, James M; Wellons, John C; Rozzelle, Curtis J; Blount, Jeffrey P; Oakes, W Jerry

2011-12-01

A large volume of patients presented to a Level I pediatric trauma center during and after a recent tornado disaster. Injuries of the central and peripheral nervous systems and the medical responses of a pediatric neurosurgical team are reviewed. The clinical courses of patients who suffered cranial, spinal, and peripheral nerve injuries due to the tornado storm are reported. The clinical actions taken by the neurosurgical team during and after the event are reviewed and the lessons learned are discussed. The tornado storm system moved through the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham metropolitan areas on the early evening hours of April 27, 2011. Twenty-four patients received care from the neurosurgical team. A total of 11 cranial (including placement of an external ventricular drain), 2 spine, and 2 peripheral procedures were performed for the victims. Nine procedures were performed within the first 12 hours of the event, and an additional 6 surgeries were performed in the following 24 hours. Injuries of the peripheral nervous system often presented in a delayed fashion. Several key components were identified that enabled adequate neurosurgical care for a large influx of acute patients. Massive casualties due to tornados are rare. A well-organized physician team working with the hospital administration may decrease the mortality and morbidity of such events.

A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY...

Worldwide historical hurricane tracks from 1848 through the previous hurricane season

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This Historical Hurricane Tracks web site provides visualizations of storm tracks derived from the 6-hourly (0000, 0600, 1200, 1800 UTC) center locations and...

A forensic re-analysis of one of the deadliest European tornadoes

Science.gov (United States)

Holzer, Alois M.; Schreiner, Thomas M. E.; Púčik, Tomáš

2018-06-01

Extremely rare events with high potential impact, such as violent tornadoes, are of strong interest for climatology and risk assessment. In order to obtain more knowledge about the most extreme events, it is vital to study historical cases. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to demonstrate how a windstorm catastrophe that happened 100 years ago, such as the Wiener Neustadt, Lower Austria, tornado on 10 July 1916, can be successfully re-analyzed using a forensic approach, and (2) to propose a repeatable working method for assessing damage and reconstructing the path and magnitude of local windstorm and tornado cases with sufficient historical sources. Based on the results of the forensic re-analyses, a chronology of the tornado impact is presented, followed by a description of the key tornado characteristics: a maximum intensity rating of F4, a damage path length of 20 km and a maximum visible tornado diameter of 1 km. Compared to a historical scientific study published soon after the event, additional new findings are presented, namely the existence of two predecessor tornadoes and a higher number of fatalities: at least 34 instead of 32. While the storm-scale meteorology could not be reconstructed, rich damage data sources for the urban area of Wiener Neustadt facilitated a detailed analysis of damage tracks and wind intensities within the tornado. The authors postulate the requirement for an International Fujita Scale to rate tornadoes globally in a consistent way, based on comparable damage indicators.

Biogeochemical Impact of Hurricane Harvey on Texas Coastal Lagoons

Science.gov (United States)

Montagna, P.; Hu, X.; Walker, L.; Wetz, M.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey made landfall Friday 25 August 2017 as a Category 4 hurricane, which is the strongest hurricane to hit the middle Texas coast since Carla in 1961. After the wind storm and storm surge, coastal flooding occurred due to the storm lingering over Texas for four more days, dumping as much as 50" of rain near Houston, producing 1:1000 year flood event. The Texas coast is characterized by lagoons behind barrier islands, and their ecology and biogeochemistry are strongly influenced by coastal hydrology. The ensuing inflow event replaced brackish water with fresh water that was high in inorganic an organic matter, significantly enhancing respiration of coastal blue carbon, and dissolved oxygen went to zero for a long period of time. Recovery will likely take months or nearly one year.

Deaths associated with Hurricane Sandy - October-November 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-24

On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the northeastern U.S. coastline. Sandy's tropical storm winds stretched over 900 miles (1,440 km), causing storm surges and destruction over a larger area than that affected by hurricanes with more intensity but narrower paths. Based on storm surge predictions, mandatory evacuations were ordered on October 28, including for New York City's Evacuation Zone A, the coastal zone at risk for flooding from any hurricane. By October 31, the region had 6-12 inches (15-30 cm) of precipitation, 7-8 million customers without power, approximately 20,000 persons in shelters, and news reports of numerous fatalities (Robert Neurath, CDC, personal communication, 2013). To characterize deaths related to Sandy, CDC analyzed data on 117 hurricane-related deaths captured by American Red Cross (Red Cross) mortality tracking during October 28-November 30, 2012. This report describes the results of that analysis, which found drowning was the most common cause of death related to Sandy, and 45% of drowning deaths occurred in flooded homes in Evacuation Zone A. Drowning is a leading cause of hurricane death but is preventable with advance warning systems and evacuation plans. Emergency plans should ensure that persons receive and comprehend evacuation messages and have the necessary resources to comply with them.

Axisymmetric Tornado Simulations with a Semi-Slip Boundary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian H. Fiedler

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The structure of natural tornadoes and simulated analogs are sensitive to the lower boundary condition for friction. Three-dimensional numerical simulations of storms require a choice for turbulence parameterizations and resolution of wind near the lower boundary. This article explores some of the consequences of choices of a surface drag coefficient on the structure of a mature simulated tornado, using a conventional axisymmetric model. The surface drag parameterization is explored over the range of the semi-slip condition, including the extremes of no-slip and free-slip. A moderate semi-slip condition allows for an extreme pressure deficit, but without the unrealistic vortex breakdown of the no-slip condition.

Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Modeling System Validation. Report 4: Intermediate Submission No. 2.0

Science.gov (United States)

2013-07-01

Hurricane Isabel, Hurricane Ernesto, and Extratropical Storm Ida. Model skill was accessed by quantitative comparison of model output to wind, wave...25. Extratropical Storm Nor’Ida maximum wind speeds. ......................................................... 41  Figure 26. Extratropical Storm ...Nor’Ida wind validation stations. ........................................................ 42  Figure 27. Comparisons of Extratropical Storm Nor’Ida wind

Has Anthropogenic Forcing Caused a Discernible Change in Atlantic Hurricane Activity?

Science.gov (United States)

Knutson, T. R.; Vecchi, G. A.

2007-12-01

There is currently evidence both for and against the existence of a discernible anthropogenic impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. Emanuel's (pers. comm. 2007) Power Dissipation Index shows unprecedented high values in recent decades in the context of the past 60 yr, and correlates remarkably well with low-frequency tropical Atlantic SST variations. The limited record length, partial basin coverage by aircraft in the pre-satellite era, and lack of reconciliation with models limit the usefulness of this result for identifying possible anthropogenic influences. Landsea (EOS, 2007) uses landfalling storm statistics to infer no significant increase in basin-wide tropical storm counts since 1900. Landsea's critical assumption of a constant landfalling fraction over time limits confidence in this assessment. Nonetheless, an important finding is that U.S. landfalling hurricane activity (frequency and PDI) show no increasing trend over the past century or so. Holland and Webster (Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2007) conclude that basin-wide tropical cyclone and hurricane counts have increased dramatically during the past century, related to the rise in tropical Atlantic SSTs. Their key assumption is that the existing HURDAT data reliably portrays basin-wide statistics for tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, at least back to ~1900, which requires further substantiation. We use historical Atlantic ship track and storm track data to estimate the expected number of missing tropical storms each year in the pre-satellite era (1878-1965). After adjustment, the storm counts covary with tropical SSTs on multi-decadal time scales, but their long-term trend (1878-2006) is weaker than the trend in similarly normalized SSTs (though both are nominally positive). The linear trend in adjusted storm counts for 1900-2006 is strongly positive (+4.2 storms/century) and highly significant even after accounting for serial correlation. However, this trend begins near a local minimum in

Four hospitals in the path of killer tornadoes--what happened before ... during ... after.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrick, Joanne

2012-01-01

In mid-and late-April, late May, and early June of 2011, tornadoes swept across states in the Midwest, South, Southeast, and even New England, killing hundreds, injuring thousands, destroying property in the billions in both rural and urban areas. Some hospitals in areas where the tornadoes struck did not escape damage and one was destroyed. This article describes what happened at four hospitals in cities hardest hit by the storms and the many roles played by security officers.

The recollective qualities of adolescents' and adults' narratives about a long-ago tornado.

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Patricia J; Stark, Emily N; Ackil, Jennifer K; Larkina, Marina; Merrill, Natalie; Fivush, Robyn

2017-03-01

The recollective qualities of autobiographical memory are thought to develop over the course of the first two decades of life. We used a 9-year follow-up test of recall of a devastating tornado and of non-tornado-related events from before and after the storm, to compare the recollective qualities of adolescents' (n = 20, ages 11 years, 11 months to 20 years, 8 months) and adults' (n = 14) autobiographical memories. At the time of the tornado, half of the adolescents had been younger than age 6. Nine years after the event, all participants provided evidence that they recall the event of the tornado. Adults also had high levels of recall of the non-tornado-related events. Adolescents recalled proportionally fewer non-tornado-related events; adolescents younger than 6 at the time of the events recalled the fewest non-tornado-related events. Relative to adolescents, adults produced longer narratives. With narrative length controlled, there were few differences in the recollective qualities of adolescents' and adults' narrative reports, especially in the case of the tornado; the recollective qualities were stronger among adolescents older at the time of the events. Overall, participants in both age groups provided evidence of the qualities of recollection that are characteristic of autobiographical memory.

Large-scale Vertical Motions, Intensity Change and Precipitation Associated with Land falling Hurricane Katrina over the Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, S. R.; Kwembe, T.; Zhang, Z.

2016-12-01

We investigated the possible relationship between the large- scale heat fluxes and intensity change associated with the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. After reaching the category 5 intensity on August 28th , 2005 over the central Gulf of Mexico, Katrina weekend to category 3 before making landfall (August 29th , 2005) on the Louisiana coast with the maximum sustained winds of over 110 knots. We also examined the vertical motions associated with the intensity change of the hurricane. The data for Convective Available Potential Energy for water vapor (CAPE), sea level pressure and wind speed were obtained from the Atmospheric Soundings, and NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC), respectively for the period August 24 to September 3, 2005. We also computed vertical motions using CAPE values. The study showed that the large-scale heat fluxes reached maximum (7960W/m2) with the central pressure 905mb. The Convective Available Potential Energy and the vertical motions peaked 3-5 days before landfall. The large atmospheric vertical motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorm, tornadoes, storm surge and floods Numerical model (WRF/ARW) with data assimilations have been used for this research to investigate the model's performances on hurricane tracks and intensities associated with the hurricane Katrina, which began to strengthen until reaching Category 5 on 28 August 2005. The model was run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 hr periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model output was compared with the observations and is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track associated with hurricane Katrina.

A forensic re-analysis of one of the deadliest European tornadoes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. M. Holzer

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Extremely rare events with high potential impact, such as violent tornadoes, are of strong interest for climatology and risk assessment. In order to obtain more knowledge about the most extreme events, it is vital to study historical cases. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1 to demonstrate how a windstorm catastrophe that happened 100 years ago, such as the Wiener Neustadt, Lower Austria, tornado on 10 July 1916, can be successfully re-analyzed using a forensic approach, and (2 to propose a repeatable working method for assessing damage and reconstructing the path and magnitude of local windstorm and tornado cases with sufficient historical sources. Based on the results of the forensic re-analyses, a chronology of the tornado impact is presented, followed by a description of the key tornado characteristics: a maximum intensity rating of F4, a damage path length of 20 km and a maximum visible tornado diameter of 1 km. Compared to a historical scientific study published soon after the event, additional new findings are presented, namely the existence of two predecessor tornadoes and a higher number of fatalities: at least 34 instead of 32. While the storm-scale meteorology could not be reconstructed, rich damage data sources for the urban area of Wiener Neustadt facilitated a detailed analysis of damage tracks and wind intensities within the tornado. The authors postulate the requirement for an International Fujita Scale to rate tornadoes globally in a consistent way, based on comparable damage indicators.

Investigation of long-term hurricane activity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nguyen, B.M.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a new approach of applying numerical methods to model storm processes. A storm empirical track technique is utilized to simulate the full tracks of hurricanes, starting with their initial points over the sea and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations. The

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer

Science.gov (United States)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Biswas, Sayak K.; James, Mark W.; Roberts, J. Brent; Jones, W. Linwood; Johnson, James; Farrar, Spencer; Sahawneh, Saleem; Ruf, Christopher S.; Morris, Mary;

Using recent hurricanes and associated event layers to evaluate regional storm impacts on estuarine-wetland systems

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, C. G.; Marot, M. E.; Osterman, L. E.; Adams, C. S.; Haller, C.; Jones, M.

2016-12-01

Tropical cyclones are a major driver of change in coastal and estuarine environments. Heightened waves and sea level associated with tropical cyclones act to erode sediment from one environment and redistribute it to adjacent environments. The fate and transport of this redistributed material is of great importance to the long-term sediment budget, which in turns affects the vulnerability of these coastal systems. The spatial variance in both storm impacts and sediment redistribution is large. At the regional-scale, difference in storm impacts can often be attributed to natural variability in geologic parameters (sediment availability/erodibility), coastal geomorphology (including fetch, shoreline tortuosity, back-barrier versus estuarine shoreline, etc.), storm characteristics (intensity, duration, track/approach), and ecology (vegetation type, gradient, density). To assess storm characteristics and coastal geomorphology on a regional-scale, cores were collected from seven Juncus marshes located in coastal regions of Alabama and Mississippi (i.e., Mobile Bay, Bon Secour Bay, Mississippi Sound, and Grand Bay) expected to have been impacted by Hurricane Frederic (1979). All cores were sectioned and processed for water content, organic matter (loss-on-ignition), and select cores analyzed for foraminiferal assemblages, stable isotopes and bulk metals to aid in the identification of storm events. Excess lead-210 and cesium-137 were used to develop chronologies for the cores and evaluate mass accumulation rates and sedimentation rates. Temporal variations in accumulation rates of inorganic and organic sediments were compared with shoreline and areal change rates derived from historic aerial imagery to evaluate potential changes in sediment exchange prior to, during, and following the storm. A combined geospatial and geologic approach will improve our understanding of coastal change in estuarine marsh environments, as well help refine the influence of storms on regional

Hurricane-induced failure of low salinity wetlands

Science.gov (United States)

Howes, Nick C.; FitzGerald, Duncan M.; Hughes, Zoe J.; Georgiou, Ioannis Y.; Kulp, Mark A.; Miner, Michael D.; Smith, Jane M.; Barras, John A.

2010-01-01

During the 2005 hurricane season, the storm surge and wave field associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita eroded 527 km2 of wetlands within the Louisiana coastal plain. Low salinity wetlands were preferentially eroded, while higher salinity wetlands remained robust and largely unchanged. Here we highlight geotechnical differences between the soil profiles of high and low salinity regimes, which are controlled by vegetation and result in differential erosion. In low salinity wetlands, a weak zone (shear strength 500–1450 Pa) was observed ∼30 cm below the marsh surface, coinciding with the base of rooting. High salinity wetlands had no such zone (shear strengths > 4500 Pa) and contained deeper rooting. Storm waves during Hurricane Katrina produced shear stresses between 425–3600 Pa, sufficient to cause widespread erosion of the low salinity wetlands. Vegetation in low salinity marshes is subject to shallower rooting and is susceptible to erosion during large magnitude storms; these conditions may be exacerbated by low inorganic sediment content and high nutrient inputs. The dramatic difference in resiliency of fresh versus more saline marshes suggests that the introduction of freshwater to marshes as part of restoration efforts may therefore weaken existing wetlands rendering them vulnerable to hurricanes. PMID:20660777

Hurricane Gustav: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

Science.gov (United States)

Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Guy, Kristy K.; Serafin, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, currents, and wave field. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and surface waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is also a significant aspect of the coastal change observed during extreme storms. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes) strives to provide hazard information to those concerned about the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure morphological changes associated with Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana, on September 1, 2008. Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography, airborne topographic surveys, and ground-based topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and

Children and Natural Disasters: A Primer for School Psychologists

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Linda; Oehler-Stinnett, Judy

2006-01-01

Worldwide children are impacted by natural disasters, including hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, earthquakes, wildfires, landslides and sandstorms, winter and severe storms, heat waves, volcanoes and tsunamis. School psychologists should understand natural disaster effects, such as economic loss, relocation and health concerns and mental health…

Storm and cloud dynamics

CERN Document Server

Cotton, William R

1992-01-01

This book focuses on the dynamics of clouds and of precipitating mesoscale meteorological systems. Clouds and precipitating mesoscale systems represent some of the most important and scientifically exciting weather systems in the world. These are the systems that produce torrential rains, severe winds including downburst and tornadoes, hail, thunder and lightning, and major snow storms. Forecasting such storms represents a major challenge since they are too small to be adequately resolved by conventional observing networks and numerical prediction models.Key Features* Key Highlight

Nonlinear terms in storm surge predictions: Effect of tide and shelf geometry with case study from Hurricane Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Rego, JoãO. L.; Li, Chunyan

2010-06-01

This study applied the finite volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM) to the storm surge induced by Hurricane Rita along the Louisiana-Texas coast. The model was calibrated for tides and validated with observed water levels. Peak water levels were shown to be lower than expected for a landfall at high tide. For low- and high-tide landfalls, nonlinear effects due to tide-surge coupling were constructive and destructive to total storm tide, respectively, and their magnitude reached up to 70% of the tidal amplitude in the Rita application. Tide-surge interaction was further examined using a standard hurricane under idealized scenarios to evaluate the effects of various shelf geometries, tides, and landfall timings (relative to tide). Nonlinearity was important between landfall position and locations within 2.5 × radius of maximum winds. On an idealized wide continental shelf, nonlinear effects reached up to 80% of the tidal amplitude with an S2 tide and up to 47% with a K1 tide. Increasing average depths by 4 m reduced nonlinear effects to 41% of the tidal amplitude; increasing the slope by a factor of 3 produced nonlinearities of just 26% of tide (both with a K1 tide). The nonlinear effect was greatest for landfalls at low tide, followed by landfalls at high tide and then by landfalls at midebb or midflood.

The effects of Hurricane Sandy on trauma center admissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Curran, T; Bogdanovski, D A; Hicks, A S; Bilaniuk, J W; Adams, J M; Siegel, B K; DiFazio, L T; Durling-Grover, R; Nemeth, Z H

2018-02-01

Hurricane Sandy was a particularly unusual storm with regard to both size and location of landfall. The storm landed in New Jersey, which is unusual for a tropical storm of such scale, and created hazardous conditions which caused injury to residents during the storm and in the months following. This study aims to describe differences in trauma center admissions and patterns of injury during this time period when compared to a period with no such storm. Data were collected for this study from patients who were admitted to the trauma center at Morristown Medical Center during Hurricane Sandy or the ensuing cleanup efforts (patients admitted between 29 October 2012 and 27 December 2012) as well as a control group consisting of all patients admitted to the trauma center between 29 October 2013 and 27 December 2013. Patient information was collected to compare the admissions of the trauma center during the period of the storm and cleanup to the control period. A total of 419 cases were identified in the storm and cleanup period. 427 were identified for the control. Striking injuries were more common in the storm and cleanup group by 266.7% (p = 0.0107); cuts were more common by 650.8% (p = 0.0044). Medical records indicate that many of these injuries were caused by Hurricane Sandy. Self-inflicted injuries were more common by 301.3% (p = 0.0294). There were no significant differences in the total number of patients, mortality, or injury severity score between the two cohorts. The data we have collected show that the conditions caused by Hurricane Sandy and the following cleanup had a significant effect on injury patterns, with more patients having been injured by being struck by falling or thrown objects, cut while using tools, or causing self-inflicted injuries. These changes, particularly during the cleanup period, are indicative of environmental changes following the storm which increase these risks of injury.

Tornado lift

OpenAIRE

Ivanchin, Alexander

2010-01-01

It is shown that one of the causes for tornado is Tornado Lift. At increasing vortex diameter its kinetic energy decreases to keep the moment of momentum constant. A kinetic energy gradient of such vortex is Tornado Lift. Evaluation shows that contribution of Tornado Lift in air lifting in a tornado is comparable to buoyancy according to the order of magnitude.

Initial estimates of hurricane Katrina impacts of Mississippi gulf coast forest resources

Science.gov (United States)

Patrick A. Glass; Sonja N. Oswalt

2007-01-01

Hurricane Katrina pummeled the Gulf Coast of Mississippi on August 29, 2005. The eye wall of the storm passed directly over Hancock and Pearl River Counties. Harrison, Jackson, Stone, and George Counties on the windward side of the hurricane's path sustained severe damage before the storm's strength dissipated as it moved farther inland (fig. 1).

Hurricane Harvey Report : A fact-finding effort in the direct aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in the Greater Houston Region

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sebastian, A.G.; Lendering, K.T.; Kothuis, B.L.M.; Brand, A.D.; Jonkman, S.N.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Kolen, B.; Comes, M.; Lhermitte, S.L.M.; Meesters, K.J.M.G.; van de Walle, B.A.; Ebrahimi Fard, A.; Cunningham, S.; Khakzad Rostami, N.; Nespeca, V.

2017-01-01

On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of approximately 200 km/hour. Harvey caused severe damages in coastal Texas due to extreme winds and storm surge, but will go down in history for record-setting rainfall

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.; Shugart, Herman H.

2017-01-01

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model -based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes, manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the

Declining Radial Growth Response of Coastal Forests to Hurricanes and Nor'easters

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, Arnold; Rollinson, Christine R.; Kearney, William S.; Dietze, Michael C.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2018-03-01

The Mid-Atlantic coastal forests in Virginia are stressed by episodic disturbance from hurricanes and nor'easters. Using annual tree ring data, we adopt a dendroclimatic and statistical modeling approach to understand the response and resilience of a coastal pine forest to extreme storm events, over the past few decades. Results indicate that radial growth of trees in the study area is influenced by age, regional climate trends, and individual tree effects but dominated periodically by growth disturbance due to storms. We evaluated seven local extreme storm events to understand the effect of nor'easters and hurricanes on radial growth. A general decline in radial growth was observed in the year of the extreme storm and 3 years following it, after which the radial growth started recovering. The decline in radial growth showed a statistically significant correlation with the magnitude of the extreme storm (storm surge height and wind speed). This study contributes to understanding declining tree growth response and resilience of coastal forests to past disturbances. Given the potential increase in hurricanes and storm surge severity in the region, this can help predict vegetation response patterns to similar disturbances in the future.

Observing Storm Surges from Space: A New Opportunity

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Guoqi; Ma, Zhimin; Chen, Dake; de Young, Brad; Chen, Nancy

2013-04-01

Coastal tide gauges can be used to monitor variations of a storm surge along the coast, but not in the cross-shelf direction. As a result, the cross-shelf structure of a storm surge has rarely been observed. In this study we focus on Hurricane Igor-induced storm surge off Newfoundland, Canada. Altimetric observations at about 2:30, September 22, 2010 UTC (hours after the passage of Hurricane Igor) reveal prominent cross-shelf variation of sea surface height during the storm passage, including a large nearshore slope and a mid-shelf depression. A significant coastal surge of 1 m derived from satellite altimetry is found to be consistent with tide-gauge measurements at nearby St. John's station. The post-storm sea level variations at St. John's and Argentia are argued to be associated with free equatorward-propagating continental shelf waves (with phase speeds of 11-13 m/s), generated along the northeast Newfoundland coast hours after the storm moved away from St. John's. The cross-shelf e-folding scale of the shelf wave was estimated to be ~100 km. We further show approximate agreement of altimetric and tide-gauge observations in the Gulf of Mexico during Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Isaac (2012). The study for the first time in the literature shows the robustness of satellite altimetry to observe storm surges, complementing tide-gauge observations for the analysis of storm surge characteristics and for the validation and improvement of storm surge models.

Numerical modeling of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and potential future hurricanes on spatial patterns of salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hongqing; Chen, Qin; Hu, Kelin; Snedden, Gregg A.; Hartig, Ellen K.; Couvillion, Brady R.; Johnson, Cody L.; Orton, Philip M.

2017-03-29

The salt marshes of Jamaica Bay, managed by the New York City Department of Parks & Recreation and the Gateway National Recreation Area of the National Park Service, serve as a recreational outlet for New York City residents, mitigate flooding, and provide habitat for critical wildlife species. Hurricanes and extra-tropical storms have been recognized as one of the critical drivers of coastal wetland morphology due to their effects on hydrodynamics and sediment transport, deposition, and erosion processes. However, the magnitude and mechanisms of hurricane effects on sediment dynamics and associated coastal wetland morphology in the northeastern United States are poorly understood. In this study, the depth-averaged version of the Delft3D modeling suite, integrated with field measurements, was utilized to examine the effects of Hurricane Sandy and future potential hurricanes on salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City. Hurricane Sandy-induced wind, waves, storm surge, water circulation, sediment transport, deposition, and erosion were simulated by using the modeling system in which vegetation effects on flow resistance, surge reduction, wave attenuation, and sedimentation were also incorporated. Observed marsh elevation change and accretion from a rod surface elevation table and feldspar marker horizons and cesium-137- and lead-210-derived long-term accretion rates were used to calibrate and validate the wind-waves-surge-sediment transport-morphology coupled model.The model results (storm surge, waves, and marsh deposition and erosion) agreed well with field measurements. The validated modeling system was then used to detect salt marsh morphological change due to Hurricane Sandy across the entire Jamaica Bay over the short-term (for example, 4 days and 1 year) and long-term (for example, 5 and 10 years). Because Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Irene (2011) were two large and destructive tropical cyclones which hit the northeast coast, the validated coupled

A Database of Tornado Events as Perceived by the USArray Transportable Array Network

Science.gov (United States)

Tytell, J. E.; Vernon, F.; Reyes, J. C.

2015-12-01

Over the course of the deployment of Earthscope's USArray Transportable Array (TA) network there have numerous tornado events that have occurred within the changing footprint of its network. The Array Network Facility based in San Diego, California, has compiled a database of these tornado events based on data provided by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The SPC data itself consists of parameters such as start-end point track data for each event, maximum EF intensities, and maximum track widths. Our database is Antelope driven and combines these data from the SPC with detailed station information from the TA network. We are now able to list all available TA stations during any specific tornado event date and also provide a single calculated "nearest" TA station per individual tornado event. We aim to provide this database as a starting resource for those with an interest in investigating tornado signatures within surface pressure and seismic response data. On a larger scale, the database may be of particular interest to the infrasound research community

Improved Satellite Techniques for Monitoring and Forecasting the Transition of Hurricanes to Extratropical Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Folmer, Michael; Halverson, Jeffrey; Berndt, Emily; Dunion, Jason; Goodman, Steve; Goldberg, Mitch

2014-01-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites R-Series (GOES-R) and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Satellite Proving Grounds have introduced multiple proxy and operational products into operations over the last few years. Some of these products have proven to be useful in current operations at various National Weather Service (NWS) offices and national centers as a first look at future satellite capabilities. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) field campaign have had access to a few of these products to assist in monitoring extratropical transitions of hurricanes. The red, green, blue (RGB) Air Mass product provides forecasters with an enhanced view of various air masses in one complete image to help differentiate between possible stratospheric/tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. As a compliment to this product, a new Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Ozone product was introduced in the past year to assist in diagnosing the dry air intrusions seen in the RGB Air Mass product. Finally, a lightning density product was introduced to forecasters as a precursor to the new Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will be housed on GOES-R, to monitor the most active regions of convection, which might indicate a disruption in the tropical environment and even signal the onset of extratropical transition. This presentation will focus on a few case studies that exhibit extratropical transition and point out the usefulness of these new satellite techniques in aiding forecasters forecast these challenging events.

Sounding-derived parameters associated with large hail and tornadoes in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groenemeijer, P.H.; van Delden, A.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/072670703

2007-01-01

A study is presented focusing on the potential value of parameters derived from radiosonde data or data from numerical atmospheric models for the forecasting of severe weather associated with convective storms. Parameters have been derived from soundings in the proximity of large hail, tornadoes

The Role of Porosity in the Formation of Coastal Boulder Deposits - Hurricane Versus Tsunami

Science.gov (United States)

Spiske, M.; Boeroecz, Z.; Bahlburg, H.

2007-12-01

Coastal boulder deposits are a consequence of high-energy wave impacts, such as storms, hurricanes or tsunami. Distinguishing parameters between storm, hurricane and tsunami origin are distance of a deposit from the coast, boulder weight and inferred wave height. Formulas to calculate minimum wave heights of both storm and tsunami waves depend on accurate determination of boulder dimensions and lithology from the respective deposits. At present however, boulder porosity appears to be commonly neglected, leading to significant errors in determined bulk density, especially when boulders consist of reef or coral limestone. This limits precise calculations of wave heights and hampers a clear distinction between storm, hurricane and tsunami origin. Our study uses Archimedean and optical 3D-profilometry measurements for the determination of porosities and bulk densities of reef and coral limestone boulders from the islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao (ABC Islands, Netherlands Antilles). Due to the high porosities (up to 68 %) of the enclosed coral species, the weights of the reef rock boulders are as low as 20 % of previously calculated values. Hence minimum calculated heights both for tsunami and hurricane waves are smaller than previously proposed. We show that hurricane action appears to be the likely depositional mechanism for boulders on the ABC Islands, since 1) our calculations result in tsunami wave heights which do not permit the overtopping of coastal platforms on the ABC Islands, 2) boulder fields lie on the windward (eastern) sides of the islands, 3) recent hurricanes transported boulders up to 35 m3 and 4) the scarcity of tsunami events affecting the coasts of the ABC Islands compared to frequent impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes.

The Importance of Hurricane Research to Life, Property, the Economy, and National Security.

Science.gov (United States)

Busalacchi, A. J.

2017-12-01

The devastating 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has brought into stark relief how much hurricane forecasts have improved - and how important it is to make them even better. Whereas the error in 48-hour track forecasts has been reduced by more than half, according to the National Hurricane Center, intensity forecasts remain challenging, especially with storms such as Harvey that strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in less than three days. The unusually active season, with Hurricane Irma sustaining 185-mph winds for a record 36 hours and two Atlantic hurricanes reaching 150-mph winds simultaneously for the first time, also highlighted what we do, and do not, know about how tropical cyclones will change as the climate warms. The extraordinary toll of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria - which may ultimately be responsible for hundreds of deaths and an estimated $200 billion or more in damages - underscores why investments into improved forecasting must be a national priority. At NCAR and UCAR, scientists are working with their colleagues at federal agencies, the private sector, and the university community to advance our understanding of these deadly storms. Among their many projects, NCAR researchers are making experimental tropical cyclone forecasts using an innovative Earth system model that allows for variable resolution. We are working with NOAA to issue flooding, inundation, and streamflow forecasts for areas hit by hurricanes, and we have used extremely high-resolution regional models to simulate successfully the rapid hurricane intensification that has proved so difficult to predict. We are assessing ways to better predict the damage potential of tropical cyclones by looking beyond wind speed to consider such important factors as the size and forward motion of the storm. On the important question of climate change, scientists have experimented with running coupled climate models at a high enough resolution to spin up a hurricane

High-Amplitude Atlantic Hurricanes Produce Disparate Mortality in Small, Low-Income Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Dresser, Caleb; Allison, Jeroan; Broach, John; Smith, Mary-Elise; Milsten, Andrew

2016-12-01

Hurricanes cause substantial mortality, especially in developing nations, and climate science predicts that powerful hurricanes will increase in frequency during the coming decades. This study examined the association of wind speed and national economic conditions with mortality in a large sample of hurricane events in small countries. Economic, meteorological, and fatality data for 149 hurricane events in 16 nations between 1958 and 2011 were analyzed. Mortality rate was modeled with negative binomial regression implemented by generalized estimating equations to account for variable population exposure, sequence of storm events, exposure of multiple islands to the same storm, and nonlinear associations. Low-amplitude storms caused little mortality regardless of economic status. Among high-amplitude storms (Saffir-Simpson category 4 or 5), expected mortality rate was 0.72 deaths per 100,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.16-1.28) for nations in the highest tertile of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) compared with 25.93 deaths per 100,000 people (95% CI: 13.30-38.55) for nations with low per capita GDP. Lower per capita GDP and higher wind speeds were associated with greater mortality rates in small countries. Excessive fatalities occurred when powerful storms struck resource-poor nations. Predictions of increasing storm amplitude over time suggest increasing disparity between death rates unless steps are taken to modify the risk profiles of poor nations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:832-837).

Tornado-related fatalities--five states, Southeastern United States, April 25-28, 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-20

During April 25-28, 2011, a massive storm system generated 351 tornadoes (including 15 registering 4 or 5 on the Enhanced Fujita [EF] scale*), killing 338 persons in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee. This was the third-deadliest tornado event in the United States, surpassing an April 1974 event that resulted in 315 fatalities. This event also was historic because of the record number of fatalities that occurred despite modern advances in tornado forecasting, advanced warning times, and media coverage. Risk factors for death and injury from tornadoes are sheltering in mobile homes, proximity to an EF-4 or EF-5 tornado, being an older adult (aged ≥65 years), lack of accessibility to safe rooms (e.g., basements or reinforced shelters), and a night-time tornado impact. To describe the fatalities by demographic characteristics, type of shelter used, cause of death, and tornado severity and location, CDC reviewed data from the American Red Cross (Red Cross), death certificates, and the National Weather Service (NWS). This report summarizes the results of that review. Among the 338 decedents, median age was 55.0 years (range: 4 days-97 years); approximately one third were older adults. On tornado impact, 46.7% of decedents were in single-family homes, and 26.6% were in mobile homes. The leading cause of death was traumatic injury, including 21.9% with head injuries. Half of the deadly tornadoes were rated EF-4 or EF-5 and were responsible for 89.5% of the deaths. To prevent tornado-related deaths, health messaging should encourage the public (especially older adults and residents of mobile/manufactured homes) to pre-identify an accessible safe room, prepare the room with personal protection items (e.g., blankets and helmets), and monitor local weather.

ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity

Science.gov (United States)

Lepore, Chiara; Tippett, Michael K.; Allen, John T.

2017-09-01

Extended logistic regression is used to predict March-May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December-February (DJF) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state.

Ocean Observing Public-Private Collaboration to Improve Tropical Storm and Hurricane Predictions in the Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, R.; Leung, P.; McCall, W.; Martin, K. M.; Howden, S. D.; Vandermeulen, R. A.; Kim, H. S. S.; Kirkpatrick, B. A.; Watson, S.; Smith, W.

2016-02-01

In 2008, Shell partnered with NOAA to explore opportunities for improving storm predictions in the Gulf of Mexico. Since, the collaboration has grown to include partners from Shell, NOAA National Data Buoy Center and National Center for Environmental Information, National Center for Environmental Prediction, University of Southern Mississippi, and the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System. The partnership leverages complementary strengths of each collaborator to build a comprehensive and sustainable monitoring and data program to expand observing capacity and protect offshore assets and Gulf communities from storms and hurricanes. The program combines in situ and autonomous platforms with remote sensing and numerical modeling. Here we focus on profiling gliders and the benefits of a public-private partnership model for expanding regional ocean observing capacity. Shallow and deep gliders measure ocean temperature to derive ocean heat content (OHC), along with salinity, dissolved oxygen, fluorescence, and CDOM, in the central and eastern Gulf shelf and offshore. Since 2012, gliders have collected 4500+ vertical profiles and surveyed 5000+ nautical miles. Adaptive sampling and mission coordination with NCEP modelers provides specific datasets to assimilate into EMC's coupled HYCOM-HWRF model and 'connect-the-dots' between well-established Eulerian metocean measurements by obtaining (and validating) data between fixed stations (e.g. platform and buoy ADCPs) . Adaptive sampling combined with remote sensing provides satellite-derived OHC validation and the ability to sample productive coastal waters advected offshore by the Loop Current. Tracking coastal waters with remote sensing provides another verification of estimate Loop Current and eddy boundaries, as well as quantifying productivity and analyzing water quality on the Gulf coast, shelf break and offshore. Incorporating gliders demonstrates their value as tools to better protect offshore oil and gas assets

Dual-Polarimetric Radar-Based Tornado Debris Paths Associated with EF-4 and EF-5 Tornadoes over Northern Alabama During the Historic Outbreak of 27 April 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Chrstopher J.; Schultz, Elise V.; Petersen, Walter A.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Knupp, Kevin R.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Darden, Christopher B.

2012-01-01

An historic tornado and severe weather outbreak devastated much of the southeastern United States between 25 and 28 April 2011. On 27 April 2011, northern Alabama was particularly hard hit by a large number of tornadoes, including several that reached EF-4 and EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita damage scale. In northern Alabama alone, there were approximately 100 fatalities and hundreds of more people who were injured or lost their homes during the havoc caused by these violent tornadic storms. Two long-track and violent (EF-4 and EF-5) tornadoes occurred within range of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band dual-polarimetric). A unique capability of dual-polarimetric radar is the near-real time identification of lofted debris associated with ongoing tornadoes on the ground. The focus of this paper is to analyze the dual-polarimetric radar-inferred tornado debris signatures and identify the associated debris paths of the long-track EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes near ARMOR. The relative locations of the debris and damage paths for each tornado will be ascertained by careful comparison of the ARMOR analysis with NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) satellite imagery of the tornado damage scenes and the National Weather Service tornado damage surveys. With the ongoing upgrade of the WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler) operational network to dual-polarimetry and a similar process having already taken place or ongoing for many private sector radars, dual-polarimetric radar signatures of tornado debris promise the potential to assist in the situational awareness of government and private sector forecasters and emergency managers during tornadic events. As such, a companion abstract (Schultz et al.) also submitted to this conference explores The use of dual-polarimetric tornadic debris

Coupling Between Doppler Radar Signatures and Tornado Damage Tracks

Science.gov (United States)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Carey, Lawrence; Carcione, Brian; Smith, Matthew; Schultz, Elise V.; Schultz, Christopher; Lafontaine, Frank

2011-01-01

On April 27, 2011, the southeastern United States was raked with several episodes of severe weather. Numerous tornadoes caused extensive damage, and tragically, the deaths of over 300 people. In Alabama alone, there were 61 confirmed tornados, 4 of them produced EF5 damage, and several were on the ground an hour or more with continuous damage tracks exceeding 80km. The use of Doppler radars covering the region provided reflectivity and velocity signatures that allowed forecasters to monitors the severe storms from beginning to end issuing hundreds of severe weather warnings throughout the day. Meteorologists from the the NWS performed extensive surveys to assess the intensity, duration, and ground track of tornadoes reported during the event. Survey activities included site visits to the affected locations, analysis of radar and satellite data, aerial surveys, and interviews with eyewitnesses. Satellite data from NASA's MODIS and ASTER instruments played a helpful role in determining the location of tornado damage paths and in the assessment. High resolution multispectral and temporal composites helped forecasters corroborate their damage assessments, determine starting and ending points for tornado touchdowns, and helped to provide forecasters with a better big-picture view of the damage region. The imagery also helped to separate damage from the April 27th tornados from severe weather that occurred earlier that month. In a post analysis of the outbreak, tornado damage path signatures observed in the NASA satellite data have been correlated to "debris ball" signatures in the NWS Doppler radars and a special ARMOR dual-polarization radar operated by the University of Alabama Huntsville during the event. The Doppler radar data indicates a circular enhanced reflectivity signal and rotational couplet in the radial velocity likely associated with the tornado that is spatially correlated with the damage tracks in the observed satellite data. An algorithm to detect and

Hurricane Mitch: Peak Discharge for Selected River Reachesin Honduras

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Mark E.; Phillips, Jeffrey V.; Spahr, Norman E.

2002-01-01

Hurricane Mitch began as a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea on 22 October 1998. By 26 October, Mitch had strengthened to a Category 5 storm as defined by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (National Climate Data Center, 1999a), and on 27 October was threatening the northern coast of Honduras (fig. 1). After making landfall 2 days later (29 October), the storm drifted south and west across Honduras, wreaking destruction throughout the country before reaching the Guatemalan border on 31 October. According to the National Climate Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (National Climate Data Center, 1999b), Hurricane Mitch ranks among the five strongest storms on record in the Atlantic Basin in terms of its sustained winds, barometric pressure, and duration. Hurricane Mitch also was one of the worst Atlantic storms in terms of loss of life and property. The regionwide death toll was estimated to be more than 9,000; thousands of people were reported missing. Economic losses in the region were more than $7.5 billion (U.S. Agency for International Development, 1999). Honduras suffered the most widespread devastation during the storm. More than 5,000 deaths, and economic losses of more than $4 billion, were reported by the Government of Honduras. Honduran officials estimated that Hurricane Mitch destroyed 50 years of economic development. In addition to the human and economic losses, intense flooding and landslides scarred the Honduran landscape - hydrologic and geomorphologic processes throughout the country likely will be affected for many years. As part of the U.S. Government's response to the disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted post-flood measurements of peak discharge at 16 river sites throughout Honduras (fig. 2). Such measurements, termed 'indirect' measurements, are used to determine peak flows when direct measurements (using current meters or dye studies, for example) cannot be made. Indirect measurements of

Twitter as a Potential Disaster Risk Reduction Tool. Part III: Evaluating Variables that Promoted Regional Twitter Use for At-risk Populations During the 2013 Hattiesburg F4 Tornado.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Burkle, Frederick M; Subbarao, Italo

2015-06-29

Study goals attempt to identify the variables most commonly associated with successful tweeted messages and determine which variables have the most influence in promoting exponential dissemination of information (viral spreading of the message) and trending (becoming popular) in the given disaster affected region. Part II describes the detailed extraction and triangulation filtration methodological approach to acquiring twitter data for the 2013 Hattiesburg Tornado. The data was then divided into two 48 hour windows before and after the tornado impact with a 2 hour pre-tornado buffer to capture tweets just prior to impact. Criteria-based analysis was completed for Tweets and users. The top 100 pre-Tornado and post-Tornado retweeted users were compared to establish the variability among the top retweeted users during the 4 day span.  Pre-Tornado variables that were correlated to higher retweeted rates include total user tweets (0.324), and total times message retweeted (0.530).  Post-Tornado variables that were correlated to higher retweeted rates include total hashtags in a retweet (0.538) and hashtags #Tornado (0.378) and #Hattiesburg (0.254). Overall hashtags usage significantly increased during the storm. Pre-storm there were 5,763 tweets with a hashtag and post-storm there was 13,598 using hashtags. Twitter's unique features allow it to be considered a unique social media tool applicable for emergency managers and public health officials for rapid and accurate two way communication.  Additionally, understanding how variables can be properly manipulated plays a key role in understanding how to use this social media platform for effective, accurate, and rapid mass information communication.

Environmental risk perception from visual cues: the psychophysics of tornado risk perception

Science.gov (United States)

Dewitt, Barry; Fischhoff, Baruch; Davis, Alexander; Broomell, Stephen B.

2015-12-01

Lay judgments of environmental risks are central to both immediate decisions (e.g., taking shelter from a storm) and long-term ones (e.g., building in locations subject to storm surges). Using methods from quantitative psychology, we provide a general approach to studying lay perceptions of environmental risks. As a first application of these methods, we investigate a setting where lay decisions have not taken full advantage of advances in natural science understanding: tornado forecasts in the US and Canada. Because official forecasts are imperfect, members of the public must often evaluate the risks on their own, by checking environmental cues (such as cloud formations) before deciding whether to take protective action. We study lay perceptions of cloud formations, demonstrating an approach that could be applied to other environmental judgments. We use signal detection theory to analyse how well people can distinguish tornadic from non-tornadic clouds, and multidimensional scaling to determine how people make these judgments. We find that participants (N = 400 recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk) have heuristics that generally serve them well, helping participants to separate tornadic from non-tornadic clouds, but which also lead them to misjudge the tornado risk of certain cloud types. The signal detection task revealed confusion regarding shelf clouds, mammatus clouds, and clouds with upper- and mid-level tornadic features, which the multidimensional scaling task suggested was the result of participants focusing on the darkness of the weather scene and the ease of discerning its features. We recommend procedures for training (e.g., for storm spotters) and communications (e.g., tornado warnings) that will reduce systematic misclassifications of tornadicity arising from observers’ reliance on otherwise useful heuristics.

Tame a Tornado

Science.gov (United States)

Cronin, Jim

2003-01-01

The author was looking for a demonstration that actually used wind shear forces to set up the tornado effect when he saw a video produced by The Tornado Project called "Secrets of the Tornado". This video not only shows dozens of actual tornadoes, but also gives construction techniques for several different styles of tornado boxes that are…

An Analysis of Operational Total Lightning Data During Long-Track Tornadoes

Science.gov (United States)

Carcione, Brian C.; Stano, Geoffrey T.

2012-01-01

The 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak brought three distinct waves of tornadic thunderstorms to portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia, striking the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama and southern Tennessee particularly hard. A total of 42 tornado paths were surveyed across the fourteen county area covered by the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office in Huntsville, Alabama. Ten of these tornadoes were on the ground for at least 20 miles, two had total path lengths over 130 miles, and six tornadoes were classified as violent (EF-4 or EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale). Many of these tornadoes occurred within the domain of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA), a ground-based total lightning detection network owned and operated by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Since 2003, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center has supplied data from NALMA in real time to NWS forecast offices in Huntsville, Knoxville/Tri-Cities, Birmingham, and Nashville. Previous research has documented the utility of total lightning information in predicting tornadogenesis, particularly when combined with other remote sensing tools. Basic warning decision-making during events such as 27 April is not the most difficult part of the process; instead, the focus of warning meteorologists shifts to looking for changes in intensity or possible particularly dangerous situations, since doppler radar velocity data often cannot distinguish between weak and strong tornadoes. To that end, this research attempts to determine if any correlation exists between flash densities of the longest-tracked tornadoes over time, and the surveyed wind speeds of the tornadoes. The long-track EF-5 tornado which struck the Hackleburg, Phil Campbell, and Tanner communities in north Alabama was the primary focus of this research due to its intensity and extended life cycle. However, not all tornadoes were available for total lightning analysis due to widespread

Lower survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees in years with intense coastal storms

Science.gov (United States)

Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.

2003-01-01

The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) inhabits the subtropical waters of the southeastern United States, where hurricanes are a regular occurrence. Using mark-resighting statistical models, we analyzed 19 years of photo-identification data and detected significant annual variation in adult survival for a subpopulation in northwest Florida where human impact is low. That variation coincided with years when intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and a major winter storm occurred in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mean survival probability during years with no or low intensity storms was 0.972 (approximate 95% confidence interval = 0.961-0.980) but dropped to 0.936 (0.864-0.971) in 1985 with Hurricanes Elena, Kate, and Juan; to 0.909 (0.837-0.951) in 1993 with the March "Storm of the Century"; and to 0.817 (0.735-0.878) in 1995 with Hurricanes Opal, Erin, and Allison. These drops in survival probability were not catastrophic in magnitude and were detected because of the use of state-of-the-art statistical techniques and the quality of the data. Because individuals of this small population range extensively along the north Gulf coast of Florida, it was possible to resolve storm effects on a regional scale rather than the site-specific local scale common to studies of more sedentary species. This is the first empirical evidence in support of storm effects on manatee survival and suggests a cause-effect relationship. The decreases in survival could be due to direct mortality, indirect mortality, and/or emigration from the region as a consequence of storms. Future impacts to the population by a single catastrophic hurricane, or series of smaller hurricanes, could increase the probability of extinction. With the advent in 1995 of a new 25- to 50-yr cycle of greater hurricane activity, and longer term change possible with global climate change, it becomes all the more important to reduce mortality and injury

After the storm: personal experiences following an EF4 tornado.

Science.gov (United States)

May, Olivia W; Bigham, Amy B

2012-08-01

In April of 2011, an EF4 tornado ripped through the city of Tuscaloosa, AL, leaving in its wake thousands of destroyed homes and businesses. In the hours and days that followed, the health care community of this city, as well as the entire state of Alabama and the southeastern United States, came together to provide care to hundreds of victims, recovery workers, and volunteers. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Satellite remote sensing and cloud modeling of St. Anthony, Minnesota storm clouds and dew point depression

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, R. J.; Tsao, Y. D.

1988-01-01

Rawinsonde data and geosynchronous satellite imagery were used to investigate the life cycles of St. Anthony, Minnesota's severe convective storms. It is found that the fully developed storm clouds, with overshooting cloud tops penetrating above the tropopause, collapsed about three minutes before the touchdown of the tornadoes. Results indicate that the probability of producing an outbreak of tornadoes causing greater damage increases when there are higher values of potential energy storage per unit area for overshooting cloud tops penetrating the tropopause. It is also found that there is less chance for clouds with a lower moisture content to be outgrown as a storm cloud than clouds with a higher moisture content.

Spectral Growth of Hurricane Generated Seas

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Finlayson, William

1997-01-01

The characteristics of a growing sea during hurricanes are significantly different from those observed in ordinary storms since the source of energy generating waves is moving and the rate of change...

Toward better assessment of tornado potential in typhoons: Significance of considering entrainment effects for CAPE

Science.gov (United States)

Sueki, Kenta; Niino, Hiroshi

2016-12-01

The characteristics of typhoons that spawned tornadoes (tornadic typhoons: TTs) in Japan from 1991 to 2013 were investigated by composite analysis using the Japanese 55 year Reanalysis and compared with those of typhoons that did not spawn tornadoes (nontornadic typhoons: NTs). We found that convective available potential energy (CAPE), which considers the effects of entrainment (entraining CAPE: E-CAPE), and storm-relative environmental helicity (SREH) are significantly large in the northeast quadrant of TTs where tornadoes frequently occur and that E-CAPE and SREH in that quadrant for TTs are larger than those for NTs. On the other hand, ordinary CAPE without entrainment does not account for the spatial distribution of tornado occurrences nor does it distinguish TTs from NTs. E-CAPE is sensitive to humidity in the midtroposphere; thus, it is effective for detecting a conditionally unstable layer up to about 550 hPa, which is distinctive of TTs.

Assessing Hurricane Katrina Damage to the Mississippi Gulf Coast Using IKONOS Imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Spruce, Joseph; McKellip, Rodney

2006-01-01

Hurricane Katrina hit southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast as a Category 3 hurricane with storm surges as high as 9 m. Katrina devastated several coastal towns by destroying or severely damaging hundreds of homes. Several Federal agencies are assessing storm impacts and assisting recovery using high-spatial-resolution remotely sensed data from satellite and airborne platforms. High-quality IKONOS satellite imagery was collected on September 2, 2005, over southwestern Mississippi. Pan-sharpened IKONOS multispectral data and ERDAS IMAGINE software were used to classify post-storm land cover for coastal Hancock and Harrison Counties. This classification included a storm debris category of interest to FEMA for disaster mitigation. The classification resulted from combining traditional unsupervised and supervised classification techniques. Higher spatial resolution aerial and handheld photography were used as reference data. Results suggest that traditional classification techniques and IKONOS data can map wood-dominated storm debris in open areas if relevant training areas are used to develop the unsupervised classification signatures. IKONOS data also enabled other hurricane damage assessment, such as flood-deposited mud on lawns and vegetation foliage loss from the storm. IKONOS data has also aided regional Katrina vegetation damage surveys from multidate Land Remote Sensing Satellite and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data.

Significant Wave Height under Hurricane Irma derived from SAR Sentinel-1 Data

Science.gov (United States)

Lehner, S.; Pleskachevsky, A.; Soloviev, A.; Fujimura, A.

2017-12-01

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was with three major hurricanes a particular active one. The Category 4 hurricane Irma made landfall on the Florida Keys on September 10th 2017 and was imaged several times by ESAs Sentinel-1 satellites in C-band and the TerraSAR-X satellite in X-band. The high resolution TerraSAR-X imagery showed the footprint of individual tornadoes on the sea surface together with their turbulent wake imaged as a dark line due to increased turbulence. The water-cloud structures of the tornadoes are analyzed and their sea surface structure is compared to optical and IR cloud imagery. An estimate of the wind field using standard XMOD algorithms is provided, although saturating under the strong rain and high wind speed conditions. Imaging the hurricanes by space radar gives the opportunity to observe the sea surface and thus measure the wind field and the sea state under hurricane conditions through the clouds even in this severe weather, although rain features, which are usually not observed in SAR become visible due to damping effects. The Copernicus Sentinel-1 A and B satellites, which are operating in C-band provided several images of the sea surface under hurricane Irma, Jose and Maria. The data were acquired daily and converted into measurements of sea surface wind field u10 and significant wave height Hs over a swath width of 280km about 1000 km along the orbit. The wind field of the hurricanes as derived by CMOD is provided by NOAA operationally on their web server. In the hurricane cases though the wind speed saturates at 20 m/sec and is thus too low in the area of hurricane wind speed. The technique to derive significant wave height is new though and does not show any calibration issues. This technique provides for the first time measurements of the areal coverage and distribution of the ocean wave height as caused by a hurricane on SAR wide swath images. Wave heights up to 10 m were measured under the forward quadrant of the hurricane

Skywatch: The Western Weather Guide.

Science.gov (United States)

Keen, Richard A.

The western United States is a region of mountains and valleys with the world's largest ocean next door. Its weather is unique. This book discusses how water, wind, and environmental conditions combine to create the climatic conditions of the region. Included are sections describing: fronts; cyclones; precipitation; storms; tornadoes; hurricanes;…

Using data envelopment analysis to evaluate the performance of post-hurricane electric power restoration activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reilly, Allison C.; Davidson, Rachel A.; Nozick, Linda K.; Chen, Thomas; Guikema, Seth D.

2016-01-01

Post-hurricane restoration of electric power is attracting increasing scrutiny as customers’ tolerance for even short power interruptions decreases. At the peak, 8.5 million customers were without power after Hurricane Sandy and over 1 million customers were without power more than a week after the storm made landfall. Currently, restoration processes are typically evaluated on a case-by-case basis by a regional public service commission or similar body and lack systematic comparisons to other restoration experiences. This paper introduces a framework using data envelopment analysis to help evaluate post-hurricane restorations through comparison with the experiences of other companies in similar storms. The method accounts for the variable severity of the hurricanes themselves, so that companies are not penalized for outages that are long only because the hurricane that caused them was particularly severe. The analysis is illustrated through an application comparing 27 recent post-hurricane restoration experiences across 13 different electric power companies in the United States. The results of the study show some consistency in performance among individual utilities after the hurricanes they experience. The method could be applied to other types of infrastructure systems and other extreme events as well. - Highlights: • A Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) framework is developed to compare post- hurricane power-outage restoration performance. • Hurricane severity is considered, so that utilities are not penalized for long outages caused by severe storms. • A case study using real data compares 27 recent post-hurricane restoration experiences. • The results of the study show utilities tend to perform consistently after the hurricanes they experience.

Teacher Guidelines for Helping Students after a Hurricane

Science.gov (United States)

National Child Traumatic Stress Network, 2013

2013-01-01

Being in a hurricane can be very frightening, and the days, weeks, and months following the storm can be very stressful. Most families recover over time, especially with the support of relatives, friends, and their community. But different families may have different experiences during and after a hurricane, and how long it takes them to recover…

Brief communication "Hurricane Irene: a wake-up call for New York City?"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. C. J. H. Aerts

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The weakening of Irene from a Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm resulted in less damage in New York City (NYC than initially was anticipated. It is widely recognized that the storm surge and associated flooding could have been much more severe. In a recent study, we showed that a direct hit to the city from a hurricane may expose an enormous number of people to flooding. A major hurricane has the potential to cause large-scale damage in NYC. The city's resilience to flooding can be increased by improving and integrating flood insurance, flood zoning, and building code policies.

Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, S.C.; Alizad, K.A.; Medeiros, S.C.; Passeri, Davina L.; Needham, H.F.; Cox, A.

2016-01-01

This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static (“bathtub”) modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

The Tornado.

Science.gov (United States)

Snow, John T.

1984-01-01

Although tornadoes have been one of the most elusive phenomena in meteorology, new observation techniques are now revealing how they are spawned by thunderstorms. Tornado structure and formation, thunderstorms, tornadic thunderstorms, and the evolution and structure of such thunderstorms are considered. Why the Midwest has frequent tornadoes is…

Documentation and hydrologic analysis of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, October 29–30, 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Suro, Thomas P.; Deetz, Anna; Hearn, Paul

2016-11-17

In 2012, a late season tropical depression developed into a tropical storm and later a hurricane. The hurricane, named “Hurricane Sandy,” gained strength to a Category 3 storm on October 25, 2012, and underwent several transitions on its approach to the mid-Atlantic region of the eastern coast of the United States. By October 28, 2012, Hurricane Sandy had strengthened into the largest hurricane ever recorded in the North Atlantic and was tracking parallel to the east coast of United States, heading toward New Jersey. On October 29, 2012, the storm turned west-northwest and made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. The high winds and wind-driven storm surge caused massive damage along the entire coastline of New Jersey. Millions of people were left without power or communication networks. Many homes were completely destroyed. Sand dunes were eroded, and the barrier island at Mantoloking was breached, connecting the ocean with Barnegat Bay.Several days before the storm made landfall in New Jersey, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) made a decision to deploy a temporary network of storm-tide sensors and barometric pressure sensors from Virginia to Maine to supplement the existing USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent tide monitoring stations. After the storm made landfall, the USGS conducted a sensor data recovery and high-water-mark collection campaign in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).Peak storm-tide elevations documented at USGS tide gages, tidal crest-stage gages, temporary storm sensor locations, and high-water-mark sites indicate the area from southern Monmouth County, N.J., north through Raritan Bay, N.J., had the highest peak storm-tide elevations during this storm. The USGS tide gages at Raritan River at South Amboy and Raritan Bay at Keansburg, part of the New Jersey Tide Telemetry System, each recorded peak storm-tide elevations of greater than 13 feet (ft)—more than 5 ft

Vulnerability of National Park Service beaches to inundation during a direct hurricane landfall: Fire Island National Seashore

Science.gov (United States)

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.

2007-01-01

Waves and storm surge associated with strong tropical storms are part of the natural process of barrier-island evolution and can cause extensive morphologic changes in coastal parks, leading to reduced visitor accessibility and enjoyment. Even at Fire Island National Seashore, a barrier-island coastal park in New York where extratropical storms (northeasters) dominate storm activity, the beaches are vulnerable to the powerful, sand-moving forces of hurricanes. The vulnerability of park beaches to inundation, and associated extreme coastal change, during a direct hurricane landfall can be assessed by comparing the elevations of storm-induced mean-water levels (storm surge) to the elevations of the crest of the sand dune that defines the beach system. Maps detailing the inundation potential for Category 1-4 hurricanes can be used by park managers to determine the relative vulnerability of various barrier-island parks and to assess which areas of a particular park are more susceptible to inundation and extreme coastal changes.

Tornado damage at the Grand Gulf, Mississippi nuclear power plant site: aerial and ground surveys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujita, T.T.; McDonald, J.R.

1978-05-01

A tornado struck the Grand Gulf nuclear power generating station, Port Gibson, Mississippi, about 11:30 p.m. on April 17, 1978. Storm damage investigators from the University of Chicago and Texas Tech University were dispatched to survey the damage. The meteorological situation that spawned the Grand Gulf tornado and seven others in the area is discussed. Aerial surveys of the entire damage path and detailed surveys of the plant site are presented. An engineering evaluation of the damage is also presented based primarily on information gained from detailed ground surveys

High Resolution Modeling of Hurricanes in a Climate Context

Science.gov (United States)

Knutson, T. R.

2007-12-01

Modeling of tropical cyclone activity in a climate context initially focused on simulation of relatively weak tropical storm-like disturbances as resolved by coarse grid (200 km) global models. As computing power has increased, multi-year simulations with global models of grid spacing 20-30 km have become feasible. Increased resolution also allowed for simulation storms of increasing intensity, and some global models generate storms of hurricane strength, depending on their resolution and other factors, although detailed hurricane structure is not simulated realistically. Results from some recent high resolution global model studies are reviewed. An alternative for hurricane simulation is regional downscaling. An early approach was to embed an operational (GFDL) hurricane prediction model within a global model solution, either for 5-day case studies of particular model storm cases, or for "idealized experiments" where an initial vortex is inserted into an idealized environments derived from global model statistics. Using this approach, hurricanes up to category five intensity can be simulated, owing to the model's relatively high resolution (9 km grid) and refined physics. Variants on this approach have been used to provide modeling support for theoretical predictions that greenhouse warming will increase the maximum intensities of hurricanes. These modeling studies also simulate increased hurricane rainfall rates in a warmer climate. The studies do not address hurricane frequency issues, and vertical shear is neglected in the idealized studies. A recent development is the use of regional model dynamical downscaling for extended (e.g., season-length) integrations of hurricane activity. In a study for the Atlantic basin, a non-hydrostatic model with grid spacing of 18km is run without convective parameterization, but with internal spectral nudging toward observed large-scale (basin wavenumbers 0-2) atmospheric conditions from reanalyses. Using this approach, our

Reconnaissance level study Mississippi storm surge barrier

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Ledden, M.; Lansen, A.J.; De Ridder, H.A.J.; Edge, B.

2012-01-01

This paper reports a reconnaissance level study of a storm surge barrier in the Mississippi River. Historical hurricanes have shown storm surge of several meters along the Mississippi River levees up to and upstream of New Orleans. Future changes due to sea level rise and subsidence will further

A study on the regionalization of tornadogenesis for the domestic largest scale of tornado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugimoto, Soichiro; Nohara, Daisuke; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

2014-01-01

A new regulatory guide has been issued by the Nuclear Regulation Authority of Japan since the last year. According to this guide, electric power companies have to assess the influence of tornadoes on their nuclear power plants for operation. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the likelihood of the occurrence of F3 tornadoes, which are the largest encountered in Japan, and to consider the possibility of the regionalization of the maximum wind speed. Then, mesoscale analysis with a numerical meteorological model and re-analysis data is performed along with synoptic scale analysis. Especially, tornado parameters such as SReH (Storm Relative Helicity) and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) are used for evaluating the potential tornadogenesis of F3 tornado. Both analyses indicate that favorable meteorological condition tends to occur in the coastal zones in the Pacific side west of Ibaraki and around Kyushu island. The frequency in these zones is different from the one in the other area in the order of 1 or 2, which is large enough for regionalization. (author)

Frequent Disasters in Mexico: hurricanes Pauline and Manuel in Acapulco, Guerrero

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Manuel Rodríguez Esteves

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Hurricanes and other tropical storms are natural phenomena that attract the interest of people all over the world, especially when they affect coastal communities. Each year, especially during the hurricane season, it is common to read or see in the different media damage caused by tropical storms in several countries, especially in Latin America and Asia. In Mexico total economic losses associated with natural phenomena has been increasing. During the year 2000 were allocated 230 million US dollars for the reconstruction of the infrastructure affected by hydrometeorological phenomena, while in 2013 damage amounted to $ 4,476 million, peaking during 2010 were recorded when 7,208 million dollars in losses. On the other hand, the total of damage caused by natural phenomena, 92 % were associated with hydrometeorological phenomena, which include hurricanes and other phenomena (SEGOB, 2014. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impacts caused by disasters associated with the influence of hurricanes from a comparative perspective between two phenomena in particular, hurricane Pauline in 1997 and Manuel storm in 2013 events hydrometeorological which affected the Mexican state of Guerrero, but especially to the port of Acapulco. one of the main conclusions of this study refers to that no matter only the intensity of the natural phenomenon to generate damage on society, but the total of damages also refers to the contexts of vulnerability generated by a society with the course of the years.

Are recent hurricane (Harvey, Irma, Maria) disasters natural?

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, K. E.; Lijing, C.; Jacobs, P.; Abraham, J. P.

2017-12-01

Yes and no! Hurricanes are certainly natural, but human-caused climate change is supersizing them, and unbridled growth is exacerbating risk of major damages. The addition of heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere has led to observed increases in upper ocean heat content (OHC). This human-caused increase in OHC supports higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric moisture. These elevated temperatures and increased moisture availability fuel tropical storms, allowing them to grow larger, longer lasting, and more intense, and with widespread heavy rainfalls. Our preliminary analysis of OHC through the August of 2017 shows not only was it by far the highest on record globally, but it was also the highest on record in the Gulf of Mexico prior to hurricane Harvey occurring. The human influence on the climate is also evident in rising sea levels, which increases risks from storm surges. These climatic changes are taking place against a background of growing habitation along coasts, which further increases the risk storms pose to life and property. This combination of planning choice and climatic change illustrates the tragedy of global warming, as evidenced by Harvey in Houston, Irma in the Caribbean and Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico. However, future damages and loss of life can be mitigated, by stopping or slowing human-caused climate change, and through proactive planning (e.g., better building codes, increased-capacity drainage systems, shelters, and evacuation plans). We discuss the climatic and planning contexts of the unnatural disasters of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season, including novel indices of climate-hurricane influence.

Hurricane Agnes rainfall and floods, June-July 1972

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, James F.; Patterson, James Lee; Paulhus, Joseph Louis Hornore

1975-01-01

Hurricane Agnes originated in the Caribbean Sea region in mid-June. Circulation barely reached hurricane intensity for a brief period in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm crossed the Florida Panhandle coastline on June 19, 1972, and followed an unusually extended overland trajectory combining with an extratropical system to bring very heavy rain from the Carolinas northward to New York. This torrential rain followed the abnormally wet May weather in the Middle Atlantic States and set the stage for the subsequent major flooding. The record-breaking floods occurred in the Middle Atlantic States in late June and early July 1972. Many streams in the affected area experienced peak discharges several times the previous maxima of record. Estimated recurrence intervals of peak flows at many gaging stations on major rivers and their tributaries exceeded 100 years. The suspended-sediment concentration and load of most flooded streams were also unusually high. The widespread flooding from this storm caused Agnes to be called the most destructive hurricane in United States history, claiming 117 lives and causing damage estimated at $3.1 billion in 12 States. Damage was particularly high in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia. The detailed life history of Hurricane Agnes, including the tropical depression and tropical storm stages, is traced. Associated rainfalls are analyzed and compared with climatologic recurrence values. These are followed by a detailed description of the flood and streamflows of each affected basin. A summary of peak stages and discharges and comparison data for previous floods at 989 stations are presented. Deaths and flood damage estimates are compiled.

Impact of dual-polarization radar technology and Twitter on the Hattiesburg, Mississippi tornado.

Science.gov (United States)

Cates, Alexis L; Arnold, Brent W; Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Stake, Josh; Ali, Mohammed; Calderone, Richard C; Wilkinson, James; Hsu, Edbert; Parrillo, Steven; Piper, Steven; Subbarao, Italo

2013-12-01

Dual-Polarization Radar and Twitter were analyzed to determine the impact on injuries sustained by the Hattiesburg EF-4 tornado. Tracking data provided from the Dual-Pol radar systems in National Weather Service Jackson were reviewed. Twitter data from four local Twitter handles were obtained. The change in tweets and followers for the day of the storm were compared to historical averages. A Student t-test was utilized in determining statistical significance (ptornado. An Injury Severity Score (ISS) was calculated for trauma records related to the tornado. Radar detection of the tornado gave approximately 30 minutes of advanced warning time. Statistical significance in follower growth was seen in all four Twitter handles. Out of 50 patients, the average ISS was 3.9 with a range of 1 to 29. There were zero fatalities. An ISS average of 3.9 was significantly less than two previous tornadoes of similar strength that occurred prior to increased usage of Dual-pol radar and Twitter as a means for communicating severe weather information. Early detection from Dual-pol radar improved warning time. Tweets informed citizens to seek appropriate shelter. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2013;7:585-592).

Episodic Eolian Sand Deposition in the Past 4000 Years in Cape COD National Seashore, Massachusetts, USA in Response to Possible Hurricane/storm and Anthropogenic Disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Forman, Steven

2015-02-01

The eolian sand depositional record for a dune field within Cape Cod National Seashore, Massachusetts is posit as a sensitive indicator of environmental disturbances in the late Holocene from a combination of factors such as hurricane/storm and forest fire occurrence, and anthropogenic activity. Stratigraphic and sedimentologic observations, particularly the burial of spodosol-like soils, and associated 14C and OSL ages that are concordant indicate at least six eolian depositional events at ca. 3750, 2500, 1800, 960, 430 and Atlantic Ocean at ca. 2.0 to 1.6, and 1.0 ka and also a wetter coastal climate, which suppressed the occurrence of forest fire. Thus, local droughts are not associated with periods of dune movement in this mesic environment. Latest eolian activity on outer Cape Cod commenced in the past 300 to 500 years and may reflect multiple factors including broad-scale landscape disturbance with European colonization, an increased incidence of forest fires and heightened storminess. Eolian systems of Cape Cod appear to be sensitive to landscape disturbance and prior to European settlement may reflect predominantly hurricane/storm disturbance, despite generally mesic conditions in past 4 ka.

Hurricanes and coral bleaching linked to changes in coral recruitment in Tobago.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallela, J; Crabbe, M J C

2009-10-01

Knowledge of coral recruitment patterns helps us understand how reefs react following major disturbances and provides us with an early warning system for predicting future reef health problems. We have reconstructed and interpreted historical and modern-day recruitment patterns, using a combination of growth modelling and in situ recruitment experiments, in order to understand how hurricanes, storms and bleaching events have influenced coral recruitment on the Caribbean coastline of Tobago. Whilst Tobago does not lie within the main hurricane belt results indicate that regional hurricane events negatively impact coral recruitment patterns in the Southern Caribbean. In years following hurricanes, tropical storms and bleaching events, coral recruitment was reduced when compared to normal years (p=0.016). Following Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and the 2005-2006 bleaching event, coral recruitment was markedly limited with only 2% (n=6) of colonies estimated to have recruited during 2006 and 2007. Our experimental results indicate that despite multiple large-scale disturbances corals are still recruiting on Tobago's marginal reef systems, albeit in low numbers.

Calculation of particulate dispersion in a design-basis tornadic storm from the Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pepper, D.W.

1980-10-01

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to calculate ground-level air concentration and deposition (due to precipitation scavenging) after a hypothetical tornado strike at the Battelle Memorial Institute at Columbus, Ohio. Plutonium particles less than 20 ..mu..m in diameter are assumed to be lifted into the tornadic storm cell by the vortex. The rotational characteristics of the tornadic storm are embedded within the larger mesoscale flow of the storm system. The design-basis translational wind value is based on probabilities associated with existing records of tornado strikes in the vicinity of the plant site. Turbulence exchange coefficients are based on empirical values deduced from experimental data in severe storms and from theoretical assumptions obtained from the literature. The method of moments is used to incorporate subgrid-scale resolution of the concentration within a grid cell volume.

Calculation of particulate dispersion in a design-basis tornadic storm from the Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pepper, D.W.

1980-10-01

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to calculate ground-level air concentration and deposition (due to precipitation scavenging) after a hypothetical tornado strike at the Battelle Memorial Institute at Columbus, Ohio. Plutonium particles less than 20 μm in diameter are assumed to be lifted into the tornadic storm cell by the vortex. The rotational characteristics of the tornadic storm are embedded within the larger mesoscale flow of the storm system. The design-basis translational wind value is based on probabilities associated with existing records of tornado strikes in the vicinity of the plant site. Turbulence exchange coefficients are based on empirical values deduced from experimental data in severe storms and from theoretical assumptions obtained from the literature. The method of moments is used to incorporate subgrid-scale resolution of the concentration within a grid cell volume

Coupling of ionosphere and troposphere during the occurrence of isolated tornadoes on November 20, 1973

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, R. J.; Phan, T.; Smith, R. E.

1979-01-01

The paper examines the coupling between the ionosphere and the troposphere during time periods with isolated tornadoes on the stormy day of November 20, 1973. Observations are made with a high-frequency CW Doppler array system, in which radio receivers located at a central site monitored signals transmitted from three independent remote sites on three sets of frequencies (4.0125, 4.759, 5.734 MHz) and reflected off the ionosphere approximately halfway between the transmitter and receiver sites. It is shown that the sources of the gravity waves associated with tornadoes are always on the squall lines and near the tornado touchdown locations, and that analyses of ionospheric Doppler sounder observations of medium-scale gravity waves can contribute to the understanding of the coupling between the ionosphere and the troposphere during periods of severe storm activity.

Weathering the storm: hurricanes and birth outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Currie, Janet; Rossin-Slater, Maya

2013-05-01

A growing literature suggests that stressful events in pregnancy can have negative effects on birth outcomes. Some of the estimates in this literature may be affected by small samples, omitted variables, endogenous mobility in response to disasters, and errors in the measurement of gestation, as well as by a mechanical correlation between longer gestation and the probability of having been exposed. We use millions of individual birth records to examine the effects of exposure to hurricanes during pregnancy, and the sensitivity of the estimates to these econometric problems. We find that exposure to a hurricane during pregnancy increases the probability of abnormal conditions of the newborn such as being on a ventilator more than 30min and meconium aspiration syndrome (MAS). Although we are able to reproduce previous estimates of effects on birth weight and gestation, our results suggest that measured effects of stressful events on these outcomes are sensitive to specification and it is preferable to use more sensitive indicators of newborn health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Perceptions of severe storms, climate change, ecological structures and resiliency three years post-hurricane Sandy in New Jersey.

Science.gov (United States)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

2017-12-01

Global warming is leading to increased frequency and severity of storms that are associated with flooding, increasing the risk to urban, coastal populations. This study examined perceptions of the relationship between severe storms, sea level rise, climate change and ecological barriers by a vulnerable environmental justice population in New Jersey. Patients using New Jersey's Federally Qualified Health Centers were interviewed after Hurricane [Superstorm] Sandy because it is essential to understand the perceptions of uninsured, underinsured, and economically challenged people to better develop a resiliency strategy for the most vulnerable people. Patients ( N = 355) using 6 centers were interviewed using a structured interview form. Patients were interviewed in the order they entered the reception area, in either English or Spanish. Respondents were asked to rate their agreement with environmental statements. Respondents 1) agreed with experts that "severe storms were due to climate change", "storms will come more often", and that "flooding was due to sea level rise", 2) did not agree as strongly that "climate change was due to human activity", 3) were neutral for statements that " Sandy damages were due to loss of dunes or salt marshes". 4) did not differ as a function of ethnic/racial categories, and 5) showed few gender differences. It is imperative that the public understand that climate change and sea level rise are occurring so that they support community programs (and funding) to prepare for increased frequency of storms and coastal flooding. The lack of high ratings for the role of dunes and marshes in preventing flooding indicates a lack of understanding that ecological structures protect coasts, and suggests a lack of support for management actions to restore dunes as part of a coastal preparedness strategy. Perceptions that do not support a public policy of coastal zone management to protect coastlines can lead to increased flooding, extensive property

EPISODIC EOLIAN SAND DEPOSITION IN THE PAST 4000 YEARS IN CAPE COD NATIONAL SEASHORE, MASSACHUSETTS, USA IN RESPONSE TO POSSIBLE HURRICANE/STORM AND ANTHROPOGENIC DISTURBANCES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven L. Forman

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The eolian sand depositional record for a dune field within Cape Cod National Seashore, Massachusetts is posit as a sensitive indicator of environmental disturbances in the late Holocene from a combination of factors such as hurricane/storm and forest fire occurrence, and anthropogenic activity. Stratigraphic and sedimentologic observations, particularly the burial of spodosol-like soils, and associated 14C and OSL ages that are concordant indicate at least six eolian depositional events at ca. 3750, 2500, 1800, 960, 430 and <250 years ago. The two oldest events are documented at just one locality and thus, the pervasiveness of this eolian activity is unknown. However, the four younger events are identified in three or more sites and show evidence for dune migration and sand sheet accretion. The timing of eolian deposition, particularly the initiation age, corresponds to documented periods of increased storminess/hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean at ca. 2.0 to 1.6, and 1.0 ka and also a wetter coastal climate, which suppressed the occurrence of forest fire. Thus, local droughts are not associated with periods of dune movement in this mesic environment. Latest eolian activity on outer Cape Cod commenced in the past 300 to 500 years and may reflect multiple factors including broad-scale landscape disturbance with European colonization, an increased incidence of forest fires and heightened storminess. Eolian systems of Cape Cod appear to be sensitive to landscape disturbance and prior to European settlement may reflect predominantly hurricane/storm disturbance, despite generally mesic conditions in past 4 ka.

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

Tippett, Michael K; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E

2016-12-16

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Long-term Impacts of Hurricane Wilma on Land Surface-Atmosphere Exchanges

Science.gov (United States)

Fuentes, J. D.; Dowell, K. K.; Engel, V. C.; Smith, T. J.

2008-05-01

In October 2005, Hurricane Wilma made landfall along the mangrove forests of western Everglades National Park, Florida, USA. Damage from the storm varied with distance from landfall and included widespread mortality and extensive defoliation. Large sediment deposition events were recorded in the interior marshes, with erosion taking place along the coastal margins. Wilma made landfall near a 30 m flux tower where eddy-covariance measurements of ecosystem-level carbon and energy fluxes started in 2003. Repairs to the structure were completed in 2006, enabling comparisons of surface fluxes before and after the storm. One year after the hurricane, both the average and daily integrated CO2 fluxes are consistently lower than the pre-storm values. The storm's impact on standing live biomass and the slow recovery of leaf area appear to have resulted in decreased photosynthetic uptake capacity. Nighttime respiratory CO2 fluxes above the canopy are unchanged from pre-storm values. During some periods, daily integrated fluxes show the forest as a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Soil CO2 fluxes are not measured directly, but daytime soil temperatures and vertical heat fluxes have shown consistently higher values after the storm. Nighttime soil temperatures values have been slightly lower. These stronger diurnal soil temperature fluctuations indicate enhanced radiative fluxes at the soil surface, possibly as a result of the reduced leaf area. The increases in daytime soil temperatures are presumably leading to higher below-ground respiration rates and, along with the reduced photosynthetic capacity, contributing to the lower net CO2 assimilation rates. This hypothesis is supported by nearby measurements of declining surface elevations of the organic soils which have been correlated with mangrove mortality in impacted areas. Both sensible and latent heat fluxes above the canopy are found to be reduced following the hurricane, and soil heat storage is higher. Together

A seasonal-scale climatological analysis correlating spring tornadic activity with antecedent fall-winter drought in the southeastern United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shepherd, Marshall; Mote, Thomas L; Niyogi, Dev

2009-01-01

Using rain gauge and satellite-based rainfall climatologies and the NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1952-2007), this study found a statistically significant tendency for fall-winter drought conditions to be correlated with below-normal tornado days the following spring in north Georgia (i.e. 93% of the years) and other regions of the Southeast. Non-drought years had nearly twice as many tornado days in the study area as drought years and were also five to six times more likely to have multiple tornado days. Individual tornadic events are largely a function of the convective-mesoscale thermodynamic and dynamic environments, thus the study does not attempt to overstate predictability. Yet, the results may provide seasonal guidance in an analogous manner to the well known Sahelian rainfall and Cape Verde hurricane activity relationships.

Circular Conditional Autoregressive Modeling of Vector Fields.

Science.gov (United States)

Modlin, Danny; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian

2012-02-01

As hurricanes approach landfall, there are several hazards for which coastal populations must be prepared. Damaging winds, torrential rains, and tornadoes play havoc with both the coast and inland areas; but, the biggest seaside menace to life and property is the storm surge. Wind fields are used as the primary forcing for the numerical forecasts of the coastal ocean response to hurricane force winds, such as the height of the storm surge and the degree of coastal flooding. Unfortunately, developments in deterministic modeling of these forcings have been hindered by computational expenses. In this paper, we present a multivariate spatial model for vector fields, that we apply to hurricane winds. We parameterize the wind vector at each site in polar coordinates and specify a circular conditional autoregressive (CCAR) model for the vector direction, and a spatial CAR model for speed. We apply our framework for vector fields to hurricane surface wind fields for Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and compare our CCAR model to prior methods that decompose wind speed and direction into its N-S and W-E cardinal components.

Morphological responses of the Wax Lake Delta, Louisiana, to Hurricanes Rita

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Xing

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study examines the morphodynamic response of a deltaic system to extreme weather events. The Wax Lake Delta (WLD in Louisiana, USA, is used to illustrate the impact of extreme events (hurricanes on a river-dominated deltaic system. Simulations using the open source Delft3D model reveal that Hurricane Rita, which made landfall 120 km to the west of WLD as a Category 3 storm in 2005, caused erosion on the right side and deposition on the left side of the hurricane eye track on the continental shelf line (water depth 10 m to 50 m. Erosion over a wide area occurred both on the continental shelf line and in coastal areas when the hurricane moved onshore, while deposition occurred along the Gulf coastline (water depth < 5 m when storm surge water moved back offshore. The numerical model estimated that Hurricane Rita’s storm surge reached 2.5 m, with maximum currents of 2.0 m s–1, and wave heights of 1.4 m on the WLD. The northwestern-directed flow and waves induced shear stresses, caused erosion on the eastern banks of the deltaic islands and deposition in channels located west of these islands. In total, Hurricane Rita eroded more than 500,000 m3 of sediments on the WLD area. Including waves in the analysis resulted in doubling the amount of erosion in the study area, comparing to the wave-excluding scenario. The exclusion of fluvial input caused minor changes in deltaic morphology during the event. Vegetation cover was represented as rigid rods in the model which add extra source terms for drag and turbulence to influence the momentum and turbulence equations. Vegetation slowed down the floodwater propagation and decreased flow velocity on the islands, leading to a 47% reduction in the total amount of erosion. Morphodynamic impact of the hurricane track relative to the delta was explored. Simulations indicate that the original track of Hurricane Rita (landfall 120 km west of the WLD produced twice as much erosion and deposition at the delta

Spatial-Temporal Clustering of Tornadoes

Science.gov (United States)

Malamud, Bruce D.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Brooks, Harold E.

2017-04-01

The standard measure of the intensity of a tornado is the Enhanced Fujita scale, which is based qualitatively on the damage caused by a tornado. An alternative measure of tornado intensity is the tornado path length, L. Here we examine the spatial-temporal clustering of severe tornadoes, which we define as having path lengths L ≥ 10 km. Of particular concern are tornado outbreaks, when a large number of severe tornadoes occur in a day in a restricted region. We apply a spatial-temporal clustering analysis developed for earthquakes. We take all pairs of severe tornadoes in observed and modelled outbreaks, and for each pair plot the spatial lag (distance between touchdown points) against the temporal lag (time between touchdown points). We apply our spatial-temporal lag methodology to the intense tornado outbreaks in the central United States on 26 and 27 April 2011, which resulted in over 300 fatalities and produced 109 severe (L ≥ 10 km) tornadoes. The patterns of spatial-temporal lag correlations that we obtain for the 2 days are strikingly different. On 26 April 2011, there were 45 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is dominated by a complex sequence of linear features. We associate the linear patterns with the tornadoes generated in either a single cell thunderstorm or a closely spaced cluster of single cell thunderstorms moving at a near-constant velocity. Our study of a derecho tornado outbreak of six severe tornadoes on 4 April 2011 along with modelled outbreak scenarios confirms this association. On 27 April 2011, there were 64 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is predominantly random with virtually no embedded linear patterns. We associate this pattern with a large number of interacting supercell thunderstorms generating tornadoes randomly in space and time. In order to better understand these associations, we also applied our approach to the Great Plains tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999. Careful studies by others have associated

Calculation of particulate dispersion in a design-basis tornadic storm from the Babcock and Wilcox Plant, Leechburg, Pennsylvania

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pepper, D.W.

1978-03-01

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to calculate ground-level air concentration and deposition (due to precipitation scavenging) after a hypothetical tornado strike at the Babcock and Wilcox Plutonium Fabrication Facility at Leechburg, Pennsylvania. Plutonium particles lss than 20 ..mu..m in diameter are assumed to be lifted into the tornadic storm cell by the vortex. The rotational characteristics of the tornadic storm are embedded within the larger mesoscale flow of the storm system. The design-basis translational wind values are based on probabilities associated with existing records of tornado strikes in the vicinity of the plant site. Turbulence exchange coefficients are based on empirical values deduced from experimental data in severe storms and from theoretical assumptions obtained from the literature. The quasi-Lagrangian method of moments is used to model the transport of concentration within a grid cell volume.

Calculation of particulate dispersion in a design-basis tornadic storm from the Babcock and Wilcox Plant, Leechburg, Pennsylvania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pepper, D.W.

1978-03-01

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to calculate ground-level air concentration and deposition (due to precipitation scavenging) after a hypothetical tornado strike at the Babcock and Wilcox Plutonium Fabrication Facility at Leechburg, Pennsylvania. Plutonium particles lss than 20 μm in diameter are assumed to be lifted into the tornadic storm cell by the vortex. The rotational characteristics of the tornadic storm are embedded within the larger mesoscale flow of the storm system. The design-basis translational wind values are based on probabilities associated with existing records of tornado strikes in the vicinity of the plant site. Turbulence exchange coefficients are based on empirical values deduced from experimental data in severe storms and from theoretical assumptions obtained from the literature. The quasi-Lagrangian method of moments is used to model the transport of concentration within a grid cell volume

Constraining Big Hurricanes: Remotely sensing Galveston Islands' changing coastal landscape from days to millennia

Science.gov (United States)

Dougherty, A. J.; Choi, J. H.; Heo, S.; Dosseto, A.

2017-12-01

Climate change models forecast increased storm intensity, which will drive coastal erosion as sea-level rise accelerates with global warming. Over the last five years the largest hurricanes ever recorded in the Pacific (Patricia) and the Atlantic (Irma) occurred as well as the devastation of Harvey. The preceding decade was marked with Super Storm Sandy, Katrina and Ike. A century prior, the deadliest natural disaster in North America occurred as a category 4 hurricane known as `The 1900 Storm' hit Galveston Island. This research aims to contextualize the impact of storms long before infrastructure and historical/scientific accounts documented erosion. Unlike the majority of barrier islands in the US, Galveston built seaward over the Holocene. As the beach prograded it preserved a history of storms and shoreline change over millennia to the present-day. These systems (called prograded barriers) were first studied over 50 years ago using topographic profiles, sediment cores and radiocarbon dating. This research revisits some of these benchmark study sites to augment existing data utilizing state-of-the-art Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) techniques. In 2016 GPR and OSL data were collected from Galveston Island, with the aim to combine GPR, OSL and LiDAR (GOaL) to extract a high-resolution geologic record spanning 6,000 years. The resulting millennia-scale coastal evolution can be used to contextualize the impact of historic hurricanes over the past century (`The 1900 Storm'), decade (Ike in 2008) and year (now with Harvey). Preliminary results reveal a recent change in shoreline behaviour, and data from Harvey are currently being accessed within the perspective of these initial findings. This dataset will be discussed with respect to the other two benchmark prograded barriers studied in North America: Nayarit Barrier (Mexico) that Hurricane Patricia passed directly over in 2013 and

Examining the effects of hurricanes Matthew and Irma on water quality in the intracoastal waterway, St. Augustine, FL.

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, N. D.; Osborne, T.; Dye, T.; Julian, P.

2017-12-01

The last several years have been marked by a high incidence of Atlantic tropical cyclones making landfall as powerful hurricanes or tropical storms. For example, in 2016 Hurricane Matthew devastated parts of the Caribbean and the southeastern United States. In 2017, this region was further battered by hurricanes Irma and Maria. Here, we present water quality data collected in the intracoastal waterway near the Whitney Lab for Marine Bioscience during hurricanes Matthew and Irma, a region that experienced flooding during both storms. YSI Exo 2 sondes were deployed to measure pH, salinity, temperature, dissolved O2, fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM), turbidity, and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) on a 15 minute interval. The Hurricane Matthew sonde deployment failed as soon as the storm hit, but revealed an interesting phenomenon leading up to the storm that was also observed during Irma. Salinity in the intracoastal waterway (off the Whitney Lab dock) typically varies from purely marine to 15-20 psu throughout the tidal cycle. However, several days before both storms approached the Florida coast (i.e. when they were near the Caribbean), the salinity signal became purely marine, overriding any tidal signal. Anecdotally, storm drains were already filled up to street level prior to the storm hitting, poising the region for immense flooding and storm surge. The opposite effect was observed after Irma moved past FL. Water became much fresher than normal for several days and it took almost a week to return to "normal" salinity tidal cycles. As both storms hit, turbidity increased by an order of magnitude for a several hour period. fDOM and O2 behaved similar to salinity during and after Irma, showing a mostly marine signal (e.g. higher O2, lower fDOM) in the lead up, and brief switch to more freshwater influence the week after the storm. Chl-a peaked several days after the storm, presumably due to mobilization of nutrient rich flood and waste waters and subsequent algae

Longitudinal Impact of Hurricane Sandy Exposure on Mental Health Symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Rebecca M; Gillezeau, Christina N; Liu, Bian; Lieberman-Cribbin, Wil; Taioli, Emanuela

2017-08-24

Hurricane Sandy hit the eastern coast of the United States in October 2012, causing billions of dollars in damage and acute physical and mental health problems. The long-term mental health consequences of the storm and their predictors have not been studied. New York City and Long Island residents completed questionnaires regarding their initial Hurricane Sandy exposure and mental health symptoms at baseline and 1 year later (N = 130). There were statistically significant decreases in anxiety scores (mean difference = -0.33, p Hurricane Sandy has an impact on PTSD symptoms that persists over time. Given the likelihood of more frequent and intense hurricanes due to climate change, future hurricane recovery efforts must consider the long-term effects of hurricane exposure on mental health, especially on PTSD, when providing appropriate assistance and treatment.

Hurricane Irene: a Wake Up Call for New York City?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Botzen, W.J.W.

2012-01-01

The weakening of Irene from a Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm resulted in less damage in New York City (NYC) than initially was anticipated. It is widely recognized that the storm surge and associated flooding could have been much more severe. In a recent study, we showed that a direct hit

EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IVAN ON WATER QUALITY IN PENSACOLA BAY, FL USA

Science.gov (United States)

Pensacola Bay was in the strong NE quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004 as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, ...

Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. H. Glantz

2008-04-01

Full Text Available By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time.

Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region.

The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1.

Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on

Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

Science.gov (United States)

Glantz, M. H.

2008-04-01

By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time. Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region. The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1). Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on the order of 20 feet or so. The Ninth Ward, heavily

The Seminole Serpent Warrior At Miramar, FL, Shows Settlement Locations Enabled Environmental Monitoring Reminiscent Of the Four-corners Kokopelli-like EMF Phenomena, and Related to Earthquakes, Tornados and Hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Balam Matagamon, Chan; Pawa Matagamon, Sagamo

2004-03-01

Certain Native Americans of the past seem to have correctly deduced that significant survival information for their tradition-respecting cultures resided in EMF-based phenomena that they were monitoring. This is based upon their myths and the place or cult-hero names they bequeathed us. The sites we have located in FL have been detectable by us visually, usually by faint blue light, or by the elicitation of pin-like prickings, by somewhat intense nervous-system response, by EMF interactions with aural electrochemical systems that can elicit tinitus, and other ways. In the northeast, Cautantowit served as a harbinger of Indian summer, and appears to be another alter ego of the EMF. The Miami, FL Tequesta site along the river clearly correlates with tornado, earthquake and hurricane locations. Sites like the Mohave Deserts giant man may have had similar significance.

Hurricane Harvey Report: A fact-finding effort in the direct aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in the Greater Houston Region

OpenAIRE

Sebastian, A.G.; Lendering, K.T.; Kothuis, B.L.M.; Brand, A.D.; Jonkman, S.N.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Kolen, B.; Comes, M.; Lhermitte, S.L.M.; Meesters, K.J.M.G.; van de Walle, B.A.; Ebrahimi Fard, A.; Cunningham, S.; Khakzad Rostami, N.; Nespeca, V.

2017-01-01

On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of approximately 200 km/hour. Harvey caused severe damages in coastal Texas due to extreme winds and storm surge, but will go down in history for record-setting rainfall totals and flood-related damages. Across large portions of southeast Texas, rainfall totals during the six-day period between August 25 and 31, 2017 were amongst the highest ever recorded, causing flo...

Tornado Mechanics

Science.gov (United States)

1976-01-01

The Nimbus and other weather satellites are helping determine why and how tornadoes form their structure and dynamics and ultimately how they can be prevented or artificially dissipated. NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center is also planning a cooperative research program later this year with the University of Arkansas to investigate how tornado damage occurs, and to develop tornado resistant building designs. Hardware and field-data collection are funded by the Technology Utilization Office while data reduction is being performed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurricane events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, James; Duenas-Osorio, Leonardo; Stein, Robert; Subramanian, Devika

2010-01-01

Large tropical cyclones cause severe damage to major cities along the United States Gulf Coast annually. A diverse collection of engineering and statistical models are currently used to estimate the geographical distribution of power outage probabilities stemming from these hurricanes to aid in storm preparedness and recovery efforts. Graph theoretic studies of power networks have separately attempted to link abstract network topology to transmission and distribution system reliability. However, few works have employed both techniques to unravel the intimate connection between network damage arising from storms, topology, and system reliability. This investigation presents a new methodology combining hurricane damage predictions and topological assessment to characterize the impact of hurricanes upon power system reliability. Component fragility models are applied to predict failure probability for individual transmission and distribution power network elements simultaneously. The damage model is calibrated using power network component failure data for Harris County, TX, USA caused by Hurricane Ike in September of 2008, resulting in a mean outage prediction error of 15.59% and low standard deviation. Simulated hurricane events are then applied to measure the hurricane reliability of three topologically distinct transmission networks. The rate of system performance decline is shown to depend on their topological structure. Reliability is found to correlate directly with topological features, such as network meshedness, centrality, and clustering, and the compact irregular ring mesh topology is identified as particularly favorable, which can influence regional lifeline policy for retrofit and hardening activities to withstand hurricane events.

Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

2016-07-01

Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

Observations and operational model simulations reveal the impact of Hurricane Matthew (2016) on the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level

Science.gov (United States)

Ezer, Tal; Atkinson, Larry P.; Tuleya, Robert

2017-12-01

In October 7-9, 2016, Hurricane Matthew moved along the southeastern coast of the U.S., causing major flooding and significant damage, even to locations farther north well away from the storm's winds. Various observations, such as tide gauge data, cable measurements of the Florida Current (FC) transport, satellite altimeter data and high-frequency radar data, were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the storm. The data show a dramatic decline in the FC flow and increased coastal sea level along the U.S. coast. Weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) downstream from the storm's area contributed to high coastal sea levels farther north. Analyses of simulations of an operational hurricane-ocean coupled model reveal the disruption that the hurricane caused to the GS flow, including a decline in transport of ∼20 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1). In comparison, the observed FC reached a maximum transport of ∼40 Sv before the storm on September 10 and a minimum of ∼20 Sv after the storm on October 12. The hurricane impacts both the geostrophic part of the GS and the wind-driven currents, generating inertial oscillations with velocities of up to ±1 m s-1. Analysis of the observed FC transport since 1982 indicated that the magnitude of the current weakening in October 2016 was quite rare (outside 3 standard deviations from the mean). Such a large FC weakening in the past occurred more often in October and November, but is extremely rare in June-August. Similar impacts on the FC from past tropical storms and hurricanes suggest that storms may contribute to seasonal and interannual variations in the FC. The results also demonstrated the extended range of coastal impacts that remote storms can cause through their influence on ocean currents.

Modeling hurricane effects on mangrove ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, Thomas W.

1997-01-01

Mangrove ecosystems are at their most northern limit along the coastline of Florida and in isolated areas of the gulf coast in Louisiana and Texas. Mangroves are marine-based forests that have adapted to colonize and persist in salty intertidal waters. Three species of mangrove trees are common to the United States, black mangrove (Avicennia germinans), white mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa), and red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle). Mangroves are highly productive ecosystems and provide valuable habitat for fisheries and shorebirds. They are susceptible to lightning and hurricane disturbance, both of which occur frequently in south Florida. Climate change studies predict that, while these storms may not become more frequent, they may become more intense with warming sea temperatures. Sea-level rise alone has the potential for increasing the severity of storm surge, particularly in areas where coastal habitats and barrier shorelines are rapidly deteriorating. Given this possibility, U.S. Geological Survey researchers modeled the impact of hurricanes on south Florida mangrove communities.

Hurricanes, climate change and the cholera epidemic in Puerto Rico of 1855-1856.

Science.gov (United States)

Christenson, Bernard

2008-01-01

Hurricanes and global climate changes may affect the environmental factors of cholera dynamics in warm coastal areas, vulnerable to seasonal or sporadic outbreaks. The cholera epidemic of Puerto Rico in 1855-1856 had a profound effect on the Puerto Rican society; but it was not influenced by any climatic events, such as preceding hurricanes or storms based on past documentary sources. Particularly, the environmental non-toxigenic strains of Vibrio Cholerae in Puerto Rican water sources can maintain their pathogenic potential for sporadic or erratic toxigenic cholera outbreaks--if a "perfect storm" ever occurs.

Numerical simulation of a low-lying barrier island's morphological response to Hurricane Katrina

Science.gov (United States)

Lindemer, C.A.; Plant, N.G.; Puleo, J.A.; Thompson, D.M.; Wamsley, T.V.

2010-01-01

Tropical cyclones that enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico generate storm surge and large waves that impact low-lying coastlines along the Gulf Coast. The Chandeleur Islands, located 161. km east of New Orleans, Louisiana, have endured numerous hurricanes that have passed nearby. Hurricane Katrina (landfall near Waveland MS, 29 Aug 2005) caused dramatic changes to the island elevation and shape. In this paper the predictability of hurricane-induced barrier island erosion and accretion is evaluated using a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model known as XBeach. Pre- and post-storm island topography was surveyed with an airborne lidar system. Numerical simulations utilized realistic surge and wave conditions determined from larger-scale hydrodynamic models. Simulations included model sensitivity tests with varying grid size and temporal resolutions. Model-predicted bathymetry/topography and post-storm survey data both showed similar patterns of island erosion, such as increased dissection by channels. However, the model under predicted the magnitude of erosion. Potential causes for under prediction include (1) errors in the initial conditions (the initial bathymetry/topography was measured three years prior to Katrina), (2) errors in the forcing conditions (a result of our omission of storms prior to Katrina and/or errors in Katrina storm conditions), and/or (3) physical processes that were omitted from the model (e.g., inclusion of sediment variations and bio-physical processes). ?? 2010.

Modeling and simulation of storm surge on Staten Island to understand inundation mitigation strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Kress, Michael E.; Benimoff, Alan I.; Fritz, William J.; Thatcher, Cindy A.; Blanton, Brian O.; Dzedzits, Eugene

2016-01-01

Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012, near Brigantine, New Jersey, and had a transformative impact on Staten Island and the New York Metropolitan area. Of the 43 New York City fatalities, 23 occurred on Staten Island. The borough, with a population of approximately 500,000, experienced some of the most devastating impacts of the storm. Since Hurricane Sandy, protective dunes have been constructed on the southeast shore of Staten Island. ADCIRC+SWAN model simulations run on The City University of New York's Cray XE6M, housed at the College of Staten Island, using updated topographic data show that the coast of Staten Island is still susceptible to tidal surge similar to those generated by Hurricane Sandy. Sandy hindcast simulations of storm surges focusing on Staten Island are in good agreement with observed storm tide measurements. Model results calculated from fine-scaled and coarse-scaled computational grids demonstrate that finer grids better resolve small differences in the topography of critical hydraulic control structures, which affect storm surge inundation levels. The storm surge simulations, based on post-storm topography obtained from high-resolution lidar, provide much-needed information to understand Staten Island's changing vulnerability to storm surge inundation. The results of fine-scale storm surge simulations can be used to inform efforts to improve resiliency to future storms. For example, protective barriers contain planned gaps in the dunes to provide for beach access that may inadvertently increase the vulnerability of the area.

LABORATORY MODELING OF TORNADOES

OpenAIRE

文字, 信貴

1982-01-01

Laboratory modelings of the tornado vortices are overviewed. Modelings of the mesocyclone as theboundary conditions in the tornado simulations are found to have significant problems especially on thesource of thunderstorm and tornado rotation. A number of the problems related to the vortex structuresuch as the wind profiles or the role of turbulence are left unsolved. However, the simulated vortices arefound to have many common characteristics with the tornado vortices in nature, which sugges...

Short-term impacts of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on tropical stream chemistry as measured by in-situ sensors

Science.gov (United States)

McDowell, W. H.; Potter, J.; López-Lloreda, C.

2017-12-01

High intensity hurricanes have been shown to alter topical forest productivity and stream chemistry for years to decades in the montane rain forest of Puerto Rico, but much less is known about the immediate ecosystem response to these extreme events. Here we report the short-term impacts of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on the chemistry of Quebrada Sonadora immediately before and after the storms. We place the results from our 15-minute sensor record in the context of long-term weekly sampling that spans 34 years and includes two earlier major hurricanes (Hugo and Geoges). As expected, turbidity during Maria was the highest in our sensor record (> 1000 NTU). Contrary to our expectations, we found that solute-flow behavior changed with the advent of the storms. Specific conductance showed a dilution response to flow before the storms, but then changed to an enrichment response during and after Maria. This switch in system behavior is likely due to the deposition of marine aerosols during the hurricane. Nitrate concentrations showed very little response to discharge prior to the recent hurricanes, but large increase in concentration occurred at high flow both during and after the hurricanes. Baseflow nitrate concentrations decreased immediately after Irma to below the long-term background concentrations, which we attribute to the immobilization of N on organic debris choking the stream channel. Within three weeks of Hurricane Maria, baseflow nitrate concentrations began to rise. This is likely due to mineralization of N from decomposing canopy vegetation on the forest floor, and reduced N uptake by hurricane-damaged vegetation. The high frequency sensors are providing new insights into the response of this ecosystem in the days and weeks following two major disturbance events. The flipping of nitrate response to storms, from source limited to transport limited, suggests that these two severe hurricanes have fundamentally altered the nitrogen cycle at the site in ways

Genesis and maintenance of "Mediterranean hurricanes"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Emanuel

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Cyclonic storms that closely resemble tropical cyclones in satellite images occasionally form over the Mediterranean Sea. Synoptic and mesoscale analyses of such storms show small, warm-core structure and surface winds sometimes exceeding 25ms-1 over small areas. These analyses, together with numerical simulations, reveal that in their mature stages, such storms intensify and are maintained by a feedback between surface enthalpy fluxes and wind, and as such are isomorphic with tropical cyclones. In this paper, I demonstrate that a cold, upper low over the Mediterranean can produce strong cyclogenesis in an axisymmetric model, thereby showing that baroclinic instability is not necessary during the mature stages of Mediterranean hurricanes.

Satellite Images and Aerial Photographs of the Effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on Coastal Louisiana

Science.gov (United States)

Barras, John A.

2007-01-01

Introduction Hurricane Katrina made landfall on the eastern coastline of Louisiana on August 29, 2005; Hurricane Rita made landfall on the western coastline of Louisiana on September 24, 2005. Comparison of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery acquired before and after the landfalls of Katrina and Rita and classified to identify land and water demonstrated that water area increased by 217 mi2 (562 km2) in coastal Louisiana as a result of the storms. Approximately 82 mi2 (212 km2) of new water areas were in areas primarily impacted by Hurricane Katrina (Mississippi River Delta basin, Breton Sound basin, Pontchartrain basin, and Pearl River basin), whereas 99 mi2 (256 km2) were in areas primarily impacted by Hurricane Rita (Calcasieu/Sabine basin, Mermentau basin, Teche/Vermilion basin, Atchafalaya basin, and Terrebonne basin). Barataria basin contained new water areas caused by both hurricanes, resulting in some 18 mi2 (46.6 km2) of new water areas. The fresh marsh and intermediate marsh communities' land areas decreased by 122 mi2 (316 km2) and 90 mi2 (233.1 km2), respectively, and the brackish marsh and saline marsh communities' land areas decreased by 33 mi2 (85.5 km2) and 28 mi2 (72.5 km2), respectively. These new water areas represent land losses caused by direct removal of wetlands. They also indicate transitory changes in water area caused by remnant flooding, removal of aquatic vegetation, scouring of marsh vegetation, and water-level variation attributed to normal tidal and meteorological variation between satellite images. Permanent losses cannot be estimated until several growing seasons have passed and the transitory impacts of the hurricanes are minimized. The purpose of this study was to provide preliminary information on water area changes in coastal Louisiana acquired shortly after the landfalls of both hurricanes (detectable with Landsat TM imagery) and to serve as a regional baseline for monitoring posthurricane wetland recovery. The land

Tornadoes, Florida's Miami Tequesta Site, Memphremagog, America's Stonehenge, A.S., Mexico/Rumford ME, and Some Applied Physics.

Science.gov (United States)

Mc Leod, Edward M.; Mc Leod, David M.; Mc Leod, Roger D.

2002-04-01

Hay or dust devils, firestorm "twisters", waterspouts, and Fujita's entire range of F1 to F5 tornadoes have a completely explainable common source. These can exist only where the earth's electromagnetic field, EMF, makes loops, or their associated breaks and reorganizations, like those observable at sunspots. Fujita's F1 tornadoes require ionized air in modest thunderclouds with ordinary up- or downdrafts. The equivalent charge-velocity vector then is in "cross-product" with the "hypothesized," but detectable, "tubes" of magnetic field. This creates the familiar vortex that the ionic flow forms, which initially emerges somewhat horizontally from the thundercloud; this can work its way down the loop to touchdown. Fujita's F2 and F3 tornadoes may need the intersection of an ionized jet stream with a high-level EMF loop. The F4 and F5 variety possibly require the combined effects of vertical storm drafts and a jet stream to reach rotational speeds of 318 mph. We have been at EMF sites detectable by blue-light phenomena, A.S. and tornado sites visually qualify.

Use of Remote Sensing Data to Enhance NWS Storm Damage Toolkit

Science.gov (United States)

Jedlove, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; White, Kris; Burks, Jason; Stellman, Keith; Smith, Mathew

2012-01-01

In the wake of a natural disaster such as a tornado, the National Weather Service (NWS) is required to provide a very detailed and timely storm damage assessment to local, state and federal homeland security officials. The Post ]Storm Data Acquisition (PSDA) procedure involves the acquisition and assembly of highly perishable data necessary for accurate post ]event analysis and potential integration into a geographic information system (GIS) available to its end users and associated decision makers. Information gained from the process also enables the NWS to increase its knowledge of extreme events, learn how to better use existing equipment, improve NWS warning programs, and provide accurate storm intensity and damage information to the news media and academia. To help collect and manage all of this information, forecasters in NWS Southern Region are currently developing a Storm Damage Assessment Toolkit (SDAT), which incorporates GIS ]capable phones and laptops into the PSDA process by tagging damage photography, location, and storm damage details with GPS coordinates for aggregation within the GIS database. However, this tool alone does not fully integrate radar and ground based storm damage reports nor does it help to identify undetected storm damage regions. In many cases, information on storm damage location (beginning and ending points, swath width, etc.) from ground surveys is incomplete or difficult to obtain. Geographic factors (terrain and limited roads in rural areas), manpower limitations, and other logistical constraints often prevent the gathering of a comprehensive picture of tornado or hail damage, and may allow damage regions to go undetected. Molthan et al. (2011) have shown that high resolution satellite data can provide additional valuable information on storm damage tracks to augment this database. This paper presents initial development to integrate satellitederived damage track information into the SDAT for near real ]time use by forecasters

Hurricane Sandy: Shared Trauma and Therapist Self-Disclosure.

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, Nyapati; Mehra, Ashwin

2015-01-01

Hurricane Sandy was one of the most devastating storms to hit the United States in history. The impact of the hurricane included power outages, flooding in the New York City subway system and East River tunnels, disrupted communications, acute shortages of gasoline and food, and a death toll of 113 people. In addition, thousands of residences and businesses in New Jersey and New York were destroyed. This article chronicles the first author's personal and professional experiences as a survivor of the hurricane, more specifically in the dual roles of provider and trauma victim, involving informed self-disclosure with a patient who was also a victim of the hurricane. The general analytic framework of therapy is evaluated in the context of the shared trauma faced by patient and provider alike in the face of the hurricane, leading to important implications for future work on resilience and recovery for both the therapist and patient.

Direct and indirect mortality in Florida during the 2004 hurricane season

Science.gov (United States)

McKinney, Nathan; Houser, Chris; Meyer-Arendt, Klaus

2011-07-01

Previous studies have shown that natural disasters, and hurricanes in particular, have led to more deaths than those usually documented in short post-storm surveys. Such indirect deaths, thought to be related to dietary, stress or pre-existing medical conditions, can exceed the number of direct deaths and may persist for weeks or even months beyond the event itself. In the present study, cumulative sum of deviations plots are used to quantify the number of direct and indirect deaths resulting from Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne that made landfall in Florida in 2004. Results suggest that there was an elevated mortality for up to 2 months following each storm, resulting in a total of 624 direct and indirect deaths attributable to the storm. Trauma-related deaths that can be associated directly with the storm account for only ˜4% of the total storm-related mortality, while indirect mortality accounts for most storm-related deaths. Specifically, a large percentage of the elevated mortality was associated with heart (34%) and cancer-related deaths (19%), while diabetes (5%) and accident-related deaths (9%) account for a smaller but still significant percentage of the elevated mortality. The results further suggest that the elevated mortality was the result of additional deaths that would not have otherwise occurred within that 5 month period, and not simply a clustering of deaths that were inevitable between 1 August and 31 December 2004. The elevated mortality identified in this study is significantly greater than the official count of 31 direct and 113 indirect deaths resulting from the four hurricanes combined. This suggests a need for improved mortality counts and surveillance in order to better evaluate and identify effective prevention policies, and to identify preventable deaths.

The Impact of “Hurricane Hugo” on the Purchase of Indirect Loss Coverage

OpenAIRE

Joe H. Murrey, Jr.; Robert L. Taylor; R. Keith Tudor; Kenneth W. Hollman

1994-01-01

This study examines the business community of Charleston, South Carolina following Hurricane Hugo. The objectives of this study are (1) to determine if, after experiencing an actual catastrophe, a significant number of firms either purchased or increased Business Interruption and/or Extra Expense insurance limits, and (2) to compare generally the responses from Charleston, South Carolina, with the earlier responses from previous studies of areas which experienced catastrophes such as tornados...

Using High-Resolution Imagery to Characterize Disturbance from Hurricane Irma in South Florida Wetlands

Science.gov (United States)

Lagomasino, D.; Cook, B.; Fatoyinbo, T.; Morton, D. C.; Montesano, P.; Neigh, C. S. R.; Wooten, M.; Gaiser, E.; Troxler, T.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Irma, one of the strongest hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic, first made landfall in the Florida Keys before coming ashore in southwestern Florida near Everglades National Park (ENP) on September 9th and 10th of this year. Strong winds and storm surge impacted a 100+ km stretch of the southern Florida Gulf Coast, resulting in extensive damages to coastal and inland ecosystems. Impacts from previous catastrophic storms in the region have led to irreversible changes to vegetation communities and in some areas, ecosystem collapse. The processes that drive coastal wetland vulnerability and resilience are largely a function of the severity of the impact to forest structure and ground elevation. Remotely sensed imagery plays an important role in measuring changes to the landscape, particularly for extensive and inaccessible regions like the mangroves in ENP. We have estimated changes in coastal vegetation structure and soil elevation using a combination of repeat measurements from ground, airborne, and satellite platforms. At the ground level, we used before and after Structure-from-Motion models to capture the change in below canopy structure as result of stem breakage and fallen branches. Using airborne imagery collected before and after Hurricane Irma by Goddard's Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) Airborne Imager, we measured the change in forest structure and soil elevation. This unique data acquisition covered an area over 130,000 ha in regions most heavily impacted storm surge. Lastly, we also combined commercial and NASA satellite Earth observations to measure forest structural changes across the entire South Florida coast. An analysis of long-term observations from the Landsat data archive highlights the heterogeneity of hurricane and other environmental disturbances along the Florida coast. These findings captured coastal disturbance legacies that have the potential to influence the trajectory of mangrove resilience and vulnerability

A team approach to preparing for hurricanes and other disasters.

Science.gov (United States)

Kendig, Jim

2009-01-01

Applying lessons learned in Hurricane Floyd in 1999, a three-hospital system located on Florida's exposed Space Coast was able to better deal with the devastation caused by hurricanes in 2004 and make changes in its plans to better prepare for the named storms which hit its area in 2008. Each new disaster, the author points out, brings with it new challenges which have to be considered in disaster planning.

Assessing Hurricane Katrina Vegetation Damage at Stennis Space Center using IKONOS Image Classification Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Spruce, Joseph P.; Ross, Kenton W.; Graham, William D.

2007-01-01

Hurricane Katrina hit southwestern Mississippi on August 29, 2005, at 9:45 a.m. CDT as a category 3 storm with surges up to approx. 9 m and sustained winds of approx. 120 mph. The hurricane's wind, rain, and flooding devastated several coastal towns, from New Orleans through Mobile. The storm also caused significant damage to infrastructure and vegetation of NASA's SSC (Stennis Space Center). Storm recovery at SSC involved not only repairs of critical infrastructure but also forest damage mitigation (via timber harvests and control burns to reduce fire risk). This presentation discusses an effort to use commercially available high spatial resolution multispectral IKONOS data for vegetation damage assessment, based on data collected over SSC on September 2, 2005.

The perfect storm of information: combining traditional and non-traditional data sources for public health situational awareness during hurricane response.

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Kelly J; Olsen, Jennifer M; Harris, Sara; Mekaru, Sumiko; Livinski, Alicia A; Brownstein, John S

2013-12-16

Hurricane Isaac made landfall in southeastern Louisiana in late August 2012, resulting in extensive storm surge and inland flooding. As the lead federal agency responsible for medical and public health response and recovery coordination, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) must have situational awareness to prepare for and address state and local requests for assistance following hurricanes. Both traditional and non-traditional data have been used to improve situational awareness in fields like disease surveillance and seismology. This study investigated whether non-traditional data (i.e., tweets and news reports) fill a void in traditional data reporting during hurricane response, as well as whether non-traditional data improve the timeliness for reporting identified HHS Essential Elements of Information (EEI). HHS EEIs provided the information collection guidance, and when the information indicated there was a potential public health threat, an event was identified and categorized within the larger scope of overall Hurricane Issac situational awareness. Tweets, news reports, press releases, and federal situation reports during Hurricane Isaac response were analyzed for information about EEIs. Data that pertained to the same EEI were linked together and given a unique event identification number to enable more detailed analysis of source content. Reports of sixteen unique events were examined for types of data sources reporting on the event and timeliness of the reports. Of these sixteen unique events identified, six were reported by only a single data source, four were reported by two data sources, four were reported by three data sources, and two were reported by four or more data sources. For five of the events where news tweets were one of multiple sources of information about an event, the tweet occurred prior to the news report, press release, local government\\emergency management tweet, and federal situation report. In all circumstances where

A Look Inside Hurricane Alma

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific started off with a whimper late last month as Alma, a Category 2 hurricane, slowly made its way up the coast of Baja California, packing sustained winds of 110 miles per hour and gusts of 135 miles per hour. The above image of the hurricane was acquired on May 29, 2002, and displays the rainfall rates occurring within the storm. Click the image above to see an animated data visualization (3.8 MB) of the interior of Hurricane Alma. The images of the clouds seen at the beginning of the movie were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's (NOAA's) Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite (GOES) network. As the movie continues, the clouds are peeled away to reveal an image of rainfall levels in the hurricane. The rainfall data were obtained by the Precipitation Radar aboard NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The Precipitation Radar bounces radio waves off of clouds to retrieve a reading of the number of large, rain-sized droplets within the clouds. Using these data, scientists can tell how much precipitation is occurring within and beneath a hurricane. In the movie, yellow denotes areas where 0.5 inches of rain is falling per hour, green denotes 1 inch per hour, and red denotes over 2 inches per hour. (Please note that high resolution still images of Hurricane Alma are available in the NASA Visible Earth in TIFF format.) Image and animation courtesy Lori Perkins, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

Hindcasting of Storm Surges, Currents, and Waves at Lower Delaware Bay during Hurricane Isabel

Science.gov (United States)

Salehi, M.

2017-12-01

Hurricanes are a major threat to coastal communities and infrastructures including nuclear power plants located in low-lying coastal zones. In response, their sensitive elements should be protected by smart design to withstand against drastic impact of such natural phenomena. Accurate and reliable estimate of hurricane attributes is the first step to that effort. Numerical models have extensively grown over the past few years and are effective tools in modeling large scale natural events such as hurricane. The impact of low probability hurricanes on the lower Delaware Bay is investigated using dynamically coupled meteorological, hydrodynamic, and wave components of Delft3D software. Efforts are made to significantly reduce the computational overburden of performing such analysis for the industry, yet keeping the same level of accuracy at the area of study (AOS). The model is comprised of overall and nested domains. The overall model domain includes portion of Atlantic Ocean, Delaware, and Chesapeake bays. The nested model domain includes Delaware Bay, its floodplain, and portion of the continental shelf. This study is portion of a larger modeling effort to study the impact of low probability hurricanes on sensitive infrastructures located at the coastal zones prone to hurricane activity. The AOS is located on the east bank of Delaware Bay almost 16 miles upstream of its mouth. Model generated wind speed, significant wave height, water surface elevation, and current are calibrated for hurricane Isabel (2003). The model calibration results agreed reasonably well with field observations. Furthermore, sensitivity of surge and wave responses to various hurricane parameters was tested. In line with findings from other researchers, accuracy of wind field played a major role in hindcasting the hurricane attributes.

The effect of Hurricane Lili on the distribution of organic matter along the inner Louisiana shelf (Gulf of Mexico, USA)

Science.gov (United States)

Goñi, Miguel A.; Gordon, Elizabeth S.; Monacci, Natalie M.; Clinton, Rebecca; Gisewhite, Rachel; Allison, Mead A.; Kineke, Gail

2006-11-01

On October 3, 2002 Hurricane Lili made landfall on a previously studied region of the inner Louisiana shelf as a Category 2 storm with winds over 160 km/h. A week after the hurricane, major impacts of the storm were not evident in the water column except for the lower than expected inshore salinities (˜12 psu) for this time of year, which was characterized by low river discharge. Turbidity profiles were typical of those measured during previous investigations with suspended sediment concentrations >75 mg/L at inshore stations and <50 mg/L in surface waters and offshore. The implication is that the sediments resuspended during the hurricane settled soon after the storm passage. Water column particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations ranged from 0.1 to over 2.0 mg/L, with the highest concentrations measured near the seabed and in the inshore portions of the study area. Suspended particles were characterized by low organic matter content (%POC of 0.5-2 wt%), low chlorophyll:POC ratios (Chl:POC<4 mg/g) and moderately elevated POC:particulate nitrogen ratios (POC:PN of 10-14 mol/mol), all suggesting their source was locally resuspended seabed sediment rather than from algal biomass or land-derived vascular plant detritus. Post hurricane sediment deposition throughout the study area resulted in a storm layer that ranged from <0.5 to 20 cm in thickness. In most locations sediment accumulation ranged from 3 to 10 cm. The storm deposits were generally composed of silty clays with a coarser, somewhat sandy 1-2 cm basal layer. Surface sediments from the storm layer were characterized by relatively high mineral surface areas (SA of 30-50 m 2/g) and elevated OC contents (%OC of 1.0-2.0%). The dispersal of fine sediments following the hurricane resulted in marked changes in the SA and %OC values of surface sediments from offshore locations, which prior to the storm contained coarser, organic-poor particles (SA of 5-15 m 2/g and %OC of 0.2-0.6%). The OC:SA and OC:N ratios

Condensational theory of stationary tornadoes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makarieva, A.M.; Gorshkov, V.G.; Nefiodov, A.V.

2011-01-01

Using the Bernoulli integral for air streamline with condensing water vapor a stationary axisymmetric tornado circulation is described. The obtained profiles of vertical, radial and tangential velocities are in agreement with observations for the Mulhall tornado, world's largest on record and longest-lived among the three tornadoes for which 3D velocity data are available. Maximum possible vortex velocities are estimated. -- Highlights: → Water vapor condensation causes a logarithmic drop of air pressure towards tornado center. → The first ever theoretical description of tornado velocities is obtained. → The maximum vortex velocity grows logarithmically with decreasing tornado eye radius. → Air motion with high velocities can only develop in sufficiently large condensation areas.

"SOLAR MAGNETIZED ""TORNADOES:"" RELATION TO FILAMENTS"

OpenAIRE

Su, Yang; Wang, Tongjiang; Veronig, Astrid; Temmer, Manuela; Gan, Weiqun

2012-01-01

Solar magnetized "tornadoes", a phenomenon discovered in the solar atmosphere, appear as tornado-like structures in the corona but root in the photosphere. Like other solar phenomena, solar tornadoes are a feature of magnetized plasma and therefore differ distinctly from terrestrial tornadoes. Here we report the first analysis of solar "tornadoes" {Two papers which focused on different aspect of solar tornadoes were published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters (Li et al. 2012) and Nature (W...

Investigation of the relationship between hurricane waves and extreme runup

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, D. M.; Stockdon, H. F.

2006-12-01

In addition to storm surge, the elevation of wave-induced runup plays a significant role in forcing geomorphic change during extreme storms. Empirical formulations for extreme runup, defined as the 2% exceedence level, are dependent on some measure of significant offshore wave height. Accurate prediction of extreme runup, particularly during hurricanes when wave heights are large, depends on selecting the most appropriate measure of wave height that provides energy to the nearshore system. Using measurements from deep-water wave buoys results in an overprediction of runup elevation. Under storm forcing these large waves dissipate across the shelf through friction, whitecapping and depth-limited breaking before reaching the beach and forcing swash processes. The use of a local, shallow water wave height has been shown to provide a more accurate estimate of extreme runup elevation (Stockdon, et. al. 2006); however, a specific definition of this local wave height has yet to be defined. Using observations of nearshore waves from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Field Research Facility (FRF) in Duck, NC during Hurricane Isabel, the most relevant measure of wave height for use in empirical runup parameterizations was examined. Spatial and temporal variability of the hurricane wave field, which made landfall on September 18, 2003, were modeled using SWAN. Comparisons with wave data from FRF gages and deep-water buoys operated by NOAA's National Data Buoy Center were used for model calibration. Various measures of local wave height (breaking, dissipation-based, etc.) were extracted from the model domain and used as input to the runup parameterizations. Video based observations of runup collected at the FRF during the storm were used to ground truth modeled values. Assessment of the most appropriate measure of wave height can be extended over a large area through comparisons to observations of storm- induced geomorphic change.

Hurricane Impacts on Small Island Communities: Case study of Hurricane Matthew on Great Exuma, The Bahamas

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan Sealey, Kathleen; Bowleg, John

2017-04-01

Great Exuma has been a UNESCO Eco-hydrology Project Site with a focus on coastal restoration and flood management. Great Exuma and its largest settlement, George Town, support a population of just over 8.000 people on an island dominated by extensive coastal wetlands. The Victoria Pond Eco-Hydrology project restored flow and drainage to highly-altered coastal wetlands to reduce flooding of the built environment as well as regain ecological function. The project was designed to show the value of a protected wetland and coastal environment within a populated settlement; demonstrating that people can live alongside mangroves and value "green" infrastructure for flood protection. The restoration project was initiated after severe storm flooding in 2007 with Tropical Storm Noel. In 2016, the passing of Hurricane Matthew had unprecedented impacts on the coastal communities of Great Exuma, challenging past practices in restoration and flood prevention. This talk reviews the loss of natural capital (for example, fish populations, mangroves, salt water inundation) from Hurricane Matthew based on a rapid response survey of Great Exuma. The surprisingly find was the impact of storm surge on low-lying areas used primarily for personal farms and small-scale agriculture. Although women made up the overwhelming majority of people who attended Coastal Restoration workshops, women were most adversely impacted by the recent hurricane flooding with the loss of their small low-lying farms and gardens. Although increasing culverts in mangrove creeks in two areas did reduce building flood damage, the low-lying areas adjacent to mangroves, mostly ephemeral freshwater wetlands, were inundated with saltwater, and seasonal crops in these areas were destroyed. These ephemeral wetlands were designed as part of the wetland flooding system, it was not known how important these small areas were to artisanal farming on Great Exuma. The size and scope of Hurricane Matthew passing through the

Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970–2005

Science.gov (United States)

Logan, John R.; Issar, Sukriti; Xu, Zengwang

2016-01-01

Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970–2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal—a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm’s way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices. PMID:27531504

The political ecology of disaster: an analysis of factors influencing U.S. tornado fatalities and injuries, 1998-2000.

Science.gov (United States)

Donner, William R

2007-08-01

This study examines casualties from tornadoes in the United States between the years 1998 and 2000. A political model of human ecology (POET) was used to explore how the environment, technology, and social inequality influence rates of fatalities and injuries in two models. Data were drawn from four sources: John Hart's Severe Plot v2.0, National Weather Service (NWS) Warning Verification data, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) watch data, and tract-level census data. Negative binomial regression was used to analyze the causes of tornado fatalities and injuries. Independent variables (following POET) are classified in the following manner: population, organization, environment, and technology. Rural population, population density, and household size correspond to population; racial minorities and deprivation represent social organization; tornado area represents environment; and tornado watches and warnings, as well as mobile homes, correspond to technology. Findings suggest a strong relationship between the size of a tornado path and both fatalities and injuries, whereas other measures related to technology, population, and organization produce significant yet mixed results. Census tracts having larger populations of rural residents was, of the nonenvironmental factors, the most conclusive regarding its effects across the two models. The outcomes of analysis, although not entirely supportive of the model presented in this study, suggest to some degree that demographic and social factors play a role in vulnerability to tornadoes.

Modeling the Effects of Storm Surge from Hurricane Jeanne on Saltwater Intrusion into the Surficial Aquifer, East-Central Florida (USA)

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hall, C. R.

2017-12-01

Saltwater intrusion (SWI) that has been widely recognized as a detrimental issue causing the deterioration of coastal aquifer water quality and degradation of coastal ecosystems. While it is widely recognized that SWI is exacerbated worldwide due to global sea-level rise, we show that increased SWI from tropical cyclones under climate change is also a concern. In the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island Complex (CCBIC) located in east-central Florida, the salinity level of the surficial aquifer is of great importance to maintain a bio-diverse ecosystem and to support the survival of various vegetation species. Climate change induced SWI into the surficial aquifer can lead to reduction of freshwater storage and alteration of the distribution and productivity of vegetation communities. In this study, a three-dimensional variable-density SEAWAT model is developed and calibrated to investigate the spatial and temporal variation of salinity level in the surficial aquifer of CCBIC. We link the SEAWAT model to surge model data to examine the effects of storm surge from Hurricane Jeanne. Simulation results indicate that the surficial aquifer salinity level increases significantly right after the occurrence of storm surge because of high aquifer permeability and rapid infiltration and diffusion of the overtopping saltwater, while the surficial aquifer salinity level begins to decrease after the fresh groundwater recharge from the storm's rainfall. The tropical storm precipitation generates an effective hydraulic barrier further impeding SWI and providing seaward freshwater discharge for saltwater dilution and flushing. To counteract the catastrophic effects of storm surge, this natural remediation process may take at least 15-20 years or even several decades. These simulation results contribute to ongoing research focusing on forecasting regional vegetation community responses to climate change, and are expected to provide a useful reference for climate change adaptation planning

Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

Science.gov (United States)

Kettle, Anthony

2016-04-01

Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the

Barrier-island and estuarine-wetland physical-change assessment after Hurricane Sandy

Science.gov (United States)

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Smith, Kathryn E.L.; Passeri, Davina L.; Smith, Christopher G.; Bernier, Julie C.

2018-04-03

IntroductionThe Nation’s eastern coast is fringed by beaches, dunes, barrier islands, wetlands, and bluffs. These natural coastal barriers provide critical benefits and services, and can mitigate the impact of storms, erosion, and sea-level rise on our coastal communities. Waves and storm surge resulting from Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall along the New Jersey coast on October 29, 2012, impacted the U.S. coastline from North Carolina to Massachusetts, including Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia, and the Delmarva coastal system. The storm impacts included changes in topography, coastal morphology, geology, hydrology, environmental quality, and ecosystems.In the immediate aftermath of the storm, light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys from North Carolina to New York documented storm impacts to coastal barriers, providing a baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The focus of much of the existing coastal change assessment is along the ocean-facing coastline; however, much of the coastline affected by Hurricane Sandy includes the estuarine-facing coastlines of barrier-island systems. Specifically, the wetland and back-barrier shorelines experienced substantial change as a result of wave action and storm surge that occurred during Hurricane Sandy (see also USGS photograph, http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/sandy/photo-comparisons/virginia.php). Assessing physical shoreline and wetland change (land loss as well as land gains) can help to determine the resiliency of wetland systems that protect adjacent habitat, shorelines, and communities.To address storm impacts to wetlands, a vulnerability assessment should describe both long-term (for example, several decades) and short-term (for example, Sandy’s landfall) extent and character of the interior wetlands and the back-barrier-shoreline changes. The objective of this report is to describe several new wetland vulnerability assessments based on the detailed physical changes

Hurricane Activity and the Large-Scale Pattern of Spread of an Invasive Plant Species

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattarai, Ganesh P.; Cronin, James T.

2014-01-01

Disturbances are a primary facilitator of the growth and spread of invasive species. However, the effects of large-scale disturbances, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, on the broad geographic patterns of invasive species growth and spread have not been investigated. We used historical aerial imagery to determine the growth rate of invasive Phragmites australis patches in wetlands along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These were relatively undisturbed wetlands where P. australis had room for unrestricted growth. Over the past several decades, invasive P. australis stands expanded in size by 6–35% per year. Based on tropical storm and hurricane activity over that same time period, we found that the frequency of hurricane-force winds explained 81% of the variation in P. australis growth over this broad geographic range. The expansion of P. australis stands was strongly and positively correlated with hurricane frequency. In light of the many climatic models that predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes over the next century, these results suggest a strong link between climate change and species invasion and a challenging future ahead for the management of invasive species. PMID:24878928

Observations of Building Performance under Combined Wind and Surge Loading from Hurricane Harvey

Science.gov (United States)

Lombardo, F.; Roueche, D. B.; Krupar, R. J.; Smith, D. J.; Soto, M. G.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey struck the Texas coastline on August 25, 2017, as a Category 4 hurricane - the first major hurricane to reach the US in twelve years. Wind gusts over 130 mph and storm surge as high as 12.5 ft caused widespread damage to buildings and critical infrastructure in coastal communities including Rockport, Fulton, Port Aransas and Aransas Pass. This study presents the methodology and preliminary observations of a coordinated response effort to document residential building performance under wind and storm surge loading. Over a twelve day survey period the study team assessed the performance of more than 1,000 individual, geo-located residential buildings. Assessments were logged via a smartphone application to facilitate rapid collection and collation of geotagged photographs, building attributes and structural details, and structural damage observations. Detailed assessments were also made of hazard intensity, specifically storm surge heights and both wind speed and direction indicators. Preliminary observations and findings will be presented, showing strong gradients in damage between inland and coastal regions of the affected areas that may be due in part to enhanced individual loading effects of wind and storm surge and potentially joint-hazard loading effects. Contributing factors to the many cases of disproportionate damage observed in close proximity will also be discussed. Ongoing efforts to relate building damage to near-surface hazard measurements (e.g., radar, anemometry) in close proximity will also be described.

Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

2015-12-01

Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the

Tornado-Shaped Curves

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez, Sol Sáez; de la Rosa, Félix Martínez; Rojas, Sergio

2017-01-01

In Advanced Calculus, our students wonder if it is possible to graphically represent a tornado by means of a three-dimensional curve. In this paper, we show it is possible by providing the parametric equations of such tornado-shaped curves.

Tornado hazard model with the variation effects of tornado intensity along the path length

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirakuchi, Hiromaru; Nohara, Daisuke; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Hattori, Yasuo

2015-01-01

Most of Japanese tornados have been reported near the coast line, where all of Japanese nuclear power plants are located. It is necessary for Japanese electric power companies to assess tornado risks on the plants according to a new regulation in 2013. The new regulatory guide exemplifies a tornado hazard model, which cannot consider the variation of tornado intensity along the path length and consequently produces conservative risk estimates. The guide also recommends the long narrow strip area along the coast line with the width of 5-10 km as a region of interest, although the model tends to estimate inadequate wind speeds due to the limit of application. The purpose of this study is to propose a new tornado hazard model which can be apply to the long narrow strip area. The new model can also consider the variation of tornado intensity along the path length and across the path width. (author)

Coastal emergency managers' preferences for storm surge forecast communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Morrow, Betty Hearn; Lazo, Jeffrey K

2014-01-01

Storm surge, the most deadly hazard associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones, is the basis for most evacuation decisions by authorities. One factor believed to be associated with evacuation noncompliance is a lack of understanding of storm surge. To address this problem, federal agencies responsible for cyclone forecasts are seeking more effective ways of communicating storm surge threat. To inform this process, they are engaging various partners in the forecast and warning process.This project focuses on emergency managers. Fifty-three emergency managers (EMs) from the Gulf and lower Atlantic coasts were surveyed to elicit their experience with, sources of, and preferences for storm surge information. The emergency managers-who are well seasoned in hurricane response and generally rate the surge risk in their coastal areas above average or extremely high-listed storm surge as their major concern with respect to hurricanes. They reported a general lack of public awareness about surge. Overall they support new ways to convey the potential danger to the public, including the issuance of separate storm surge watches and warnings, and the expression of surge heights using feet above ground level. These EMs would like more maps, graphics, and visual materials for use in communicating with the public. An important concern is the timing of surge forecasts-whether they receive them early enough to be useful in their evacuation decisions.

Wind damage effects of Hurricane Andrew on mangrove communities along the southwest coast of Florida, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, T.W.; Smith, T. J.; Robblee, M.B.

1995-01-01

On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew downed and defoliated an extensive swath of mangrove trees across the lower Florida peninsula. Permanent field sites were established to assess the extent of forest damage and to monitor the rate and process of forest recovery. Canopy trees suffered the highest mortality particularly for sites within and immediately north of the storm's eyewall. The type and extent of site damage, windthrow, branch loss, and defoliation generally decreased exponentially with increasing distance from the storm track. Forest damage was greater for sites in the storm's right quadrant than in the left quadrant tor the same given distance from the storm center. Stand exposure, both horizontally and vertically, increased the susceptibility and probability of forest damage and accounted for much of the local variability. Slight species differences were found. Laguncularia racemosa exceeded Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle in damage tendency under similar wind conditions. Azimuths of downed trees were strongly correlated with maximum wind speed and vector based on a hurricane simulation of the storm. Lateral branch loss and leaf defoliation on sites without windthrow damage indicated a degree of crown thinning and light penetration equivalent to treefall gaps under normally intact forest conditions. Mangrove species and forests are susceptible to catastrophic disturbance by hurricanes; the impacts of which are significant to changes in forest structure and function.

Characterizing storm response and recovery using the beach change envelope: Fire Island, New York

Science.gov (United States)

Brenner, Owen T.; Lentz, Erika E.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Henderson, Rachel E.; Wilson, Kat E.; Nelson, Timothy R.

2018-01-01

Hurricane Sandy at Fire Island, New York presented unique challenges in the quantification of storm impacts using traditional metrics of coastal change, wherein measured changes (shoreline, dune crest, and volume change) did not fully reflect the substantial changes in sediment redistribution following the storm. We used a time series of beach profile data at Fire Island, New York to define a new contour-based morphologic change metric, the Beach Change Envelope (BCE). The BCE quantifies changes to the upper portion of the beach likely to sustain measurable impacts from storm waves and capture a variety of storm and post-storm beach states. We evaluated the ability of the BCE to characterize cycles of beach change by relating it to a conceptual beach recovery regime, and demonstrated that BCE width and BCE height from the profile time series correlate well with established stages of recovery. We also investigated additional applications of this metric to capture impacts from storms and human modification by applying it to several post-storm historical datasets in which impacts varied considerably; Nor'Ida (2009), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Sandy (2012), and a 2009 community replenishment. In each case, the BCE captured distinctive upper beach morphologic change characteristic of these different beach building and erosional events. Analysis of the beach state at multiple profile locations showed spatial trends in recovery consistent with recent morphologic island evolution, which other studies have linked with sediment availability and the geologic framework. Ultimately we demonstrate a new way of more effectively characterizing beach response and recovery cycles to evaluate change along sandy coasts.

Generation of missiles by tornadoes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1974-11-01

Available data on tornado wind velocities and wind distribution are incorporated into a mathematical model of the tornado wind field. The mathematical model is then used to predict the time-history of motion of a potential missile in a tornado wind field. (U.S.)

A look into hurricane Maria rapid intensification using Meteo-France's Arome-Antilles model.

Science.gov (United States)

Pilon, R.; Faure, G.; Dupont, T.; Chauvin, F.

2017-12-01

Category 5 Hurricane Maria created a string of humanitarian crises. It caused billions of dollars of damage over the Caribbean but is also one of the worst natural disaster in Dominica.The hurricane took approximately 29 hours to strengthen from a tropical storm to a major category 5 hurricane. Here we present real-time forecasts of high resolution (2.5 km) Arome-Antilles regional model forced by real-time ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System. The model was able to relatively represent well the rapid intensification of the hurricane whether it was in timing or in location of the eye and strength of its eye wall.We will present an outline of results.

Performance of Oil Infrastructure during Hurricane Harvey

Science.gov (United States)

Bernier, C.; Kameshwar, S.; Padgett, J.

2017-12-01

Three major refining centers - Corpus Christi, Houston, and Beaumont/Port Arthur - were affected during Hurricane Harvey. Damage to oil infrastructure, especially aboveground storage tanks (ASTs), caused the release of more than a million gallons of hazardous chemicals in the environment. The objective of this presentation is to identify and gain a better understanding of the different damage mechanisms that occurred during Harvey in order to avoid similar failures during future hurricane events. First, a qualitative description of the damage suffered by ASTs during Hurricane Harvey is presented. Analysis of aerial imagery and incident reports indicate that almost all spills were caused by rainfall and the associated flooding. The largest spill was caused by two large ASTs that floated due to flooding in the Houston Ship Channel releasing 500,000 gallons of gasoline. The vulnerability of ASTs subjected to flooding was already well known and documented from previous storm events. In addition to flooding, Harvey also exposed the vulnerability of ASTs with external floating roof to extreme rainfall; more than 15 floating roofs sank or tilted due to rain water accumulation on them, releasing pollutants in the atmosphere. Secondly, recent fragility models developed by the authors are presented which allow structural vulnerability assessment of floating roofs during rainfall events and ASTs during flood events. The fragility models are then coupled with Harvey rainfall and flood empirical data to identify the conditions (i.e.: internal liquid height or density, drainage system design and efficiency, etc.) that could have led to the observed failures during Hurricane Harvey. Finally, the conditions causing tank failures are studied to propose mitigation measures to prevent future AST failures during severe storm, flood, or rainfall events.

Quantifying human mobility perturbation and resilience in Hurricane Sandy.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qi Wang

Full Text Available Human mobility is influenced by environmental change and natural disasters. Researchers have used trip distance distribution, radius of gyration of movements, and individuals' visited locations to understand and capture human mobility patterns and trajectories. However, our knowledge of human movements during natural disasters is limited owing to both a lack of empirical data and the low precision of available data. Here, we studied human mobility using high-resolution movement data from individuals in New York City during and for several days after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. We found the human movements followed truncated power-law distributions during and after Hurricane Sandy, although the β value was noticeably larger during the first 24 hours after the storm struck. Also, we examined two parameters: the center of mass and the radius of gyration of each individual's movements. We found that their values during perturbation states and steady states are highly correlated, suggesting human mobility data obtained in steady states can possibly predict the perturbation state. Our results demonstrate that human movement trajectories experienced significant perturbations during hurricanes, but also exhibited high resilience. We expect the study will stimulate future research on the perturbation and inherent resilience of human mobility under the influence of hurricanes. For example, mobility patterns in coastal urban areas could be examined as hurricanes approach, gain or dissipate in strength, and as the path of the storm changes. Understanding nuances of human mobility under the influence of such disasters will enable more effective evacuation, emergency response planning and development of strategies and policies to reduce fatality, injury, and economic loss.

Pneumonia cases following an EF-5 tornado.

Science.gov (United States)

Forshee-Hakala, Beth A

2015-07-01

Infections following a natural disaster such as an EF-5 tornado can be atypical and difficult to treat. Studies have looked at illness following several natural disasters, but few have studied respiratory illness following a tornado. A review of patients with pneumonia admitted during the period from May 22, 2009, through May 21, 2012, was completed. The Tornado Zone Group included adult patients who lived or worked in the tornado zone during the year following the tornado. Data were isolated by number of pneumonia cases within and outside the tornado zone per month per year. An analysis of variance comparing the number of pneumonia cases from the tornado zone per month per year was significant at F2,38 = 12.93 and P Tornado Zone Group (P Tornado Zone patients to be younger than controls (t390 = 5.14; P Tornado Zone Group included uncommon pathogens not isolated during the 2 years prior. The number of pneumonia cases may increase following tornadoes. Although current guidelines recommend narrow-spectrum antibiotics for community-acquired pneumonia, results of this study suggest the possible need for broader antimicrobial coverage after tornadoes. Copyright © 2015 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The short-term effect on carbonate parameters from hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

Science.gov (United States)

Jonsson, B. F.; Salisbury, J., II; Melendez Oyola, M.

2017-12-01

Tropical storms and hurricanes are events with potentially extreme impacts on ocean conditions. Strong winds generating vigorous vertical mixing and extensive precipitation affect both temperature and salinity in the mixed layer. The surface temperature, for example, decreased several degrees C in the wake of both hurricanes Irma and Maria. While it is clear that the physical state of the surface ocean is affected by hurricanes, how such storms affect carbonate system variability is still an open question. Changes in temperature and salinity combined with extreme winds create the potential for changes in solubility of pCO2, and large net fluxes of CO2 across the air-sea interface. A deepening of the mixed layer from wind-driven mixing may further affect the carbonate system, as sub-surface waters rich in dissolved inorganic carbon and nutrients are entrained to the surface. To examine these process, we evaluate simulated fields of temperature and salinity (from a 1/12° global data assimilated General Circulation Model), satellite ocean color and wind speed data within the context of a conceptual box model. Our model is compared to observed pCO2, wind speed, temperature and salinity data from buoyed assets that survived the storms. We address total CO2 fluxes, the relative effects temperature, salinity and biology on the carbonate system, and the time scales over which the system is "restored" to its initial state. We explore the connection between the magnitude of perturbation and the length of time it takes for the system to recover, and observe recovery over time scales lasting from days to weeks depending on the storm. Although not observed in these data, we speculate that depending on the buoyancy frequency, recovery elsewhere could take place over monthly time scales, raising the potential that hurricanes could exacerbate or alleviate environmental stresses on calcifying marine organisms.

Contrasting Hydrodynamic and Environmental Effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Ike in a Highly Industrialized Estuary

Science.gov (United States)

Kiaghadi, A.; Rifai, H. S.

2017-12-01

It is commonly believed that storm surge is the most destructive aspect of hurricanes. However, massive rainfall with a return period of 100 years or more induced by hurricanes can cause more catastrophic damage than losses caused by storm surge as demonstrated recently by hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. In this study the hydrodynamics and environmental effects of hurricanes Ike and Harvey were compared and contrasted by linking hydrodynamic flow models with water quality models to simulate spills from storage tanks located in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC). Hurricane Ike with a maximum surge of 5.3 meters in Galveston Bay and Harvey with a maximum rainfall of 1.25 meters both struck the HSC region in Texas in 2008 and 2017, respectively. Both events resulted in numerous spills from municipal and industrial facilities, hazardous waste sites, superfund sites, and landfills. The Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) was coupled with the SWAN+ADCIRC hurricane simulation model to simulate Hurricane Ike and EFDC was coupled with USGS flow boundary conditions to model Hurricane Harvey. A conservative dye release was used to simulate a chemical release during each event. The results showed Hurricane Harvey caused higher water surface elevations within the HSC accompanied by longer and wider-spread land inundation. In contrast, higher water surface elevations were observed within the shallow side bays during Hurricane Ike that caused sediment resuspension and repartitioning of pollutants. Rapid spill mass transportation was observed for both hurricanes; 50% of total spill mass reached Galveston Bay in 20 and 22 hours after a spill event for Hurricane Harvey and Ike, respectively, and more than 90% of the spill mass reached the bay in 36 and 48 hours, respectively. Unlike Hurricane Harvey, the conservative tracer was spread almost 2.5 km upstream of the releasing point for Hurricane Ike due to surge. However, during Harvey, 35% more land was affected by the spilled

What's Left After a Tornado.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence Inst. of Tech., Southfield, MI.

Following recent tornadoes, terms of specially trained architectural and engineering faculty conducted onsite examinations and research of building damage. It was concluded that tornado damage to buildings is predictable. A trained architect or engineer can establish, before a tornado strikes, those portions of the building that will offer the…

Tornado risk analysis at Savannah River Plant using windspeed damage thresholds and single building strike frequencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, D.H.; McDonald, J.R.; Twisdale, L.A.

1985-01-01

Tornado risk analysis at the Savannah River Plant has taken a two pronged approach: (1) developing a catalogue of damage thresholds as a function of windspeed for processing buildings and other representative site structures; (2) developing a method of estimating, for each building, the probability of a tornado exceeding each damage threshold. Wind resistance of building construction at SRP varies widely depending on the function of the structure. It was recognized that all tornadoes do not necessarily seriously damage buildings, but the damage thresholds were unknown. In order to evaluate the safety of existing structures and properly design new structures, an analysis of tornado resistance was conducted by J.R. McDonald on each process building at SRP and other buildings by type. Damage estimates were catalogued for each Fujita class windspeed interval and windspeeds were catalogued as a function of increased levels of damage. Tornado single point and structure specific strike probabilities for the SRP site were determined by L.A. Twisdale using the TORRISK computer code. To calculate the structure specific strike probability, a correction factor is determined from a set of curves using building area and aspect ratio (length/width relative to north) as parameters. The structure specific probability is then the product of the correction factor and the point probability. The correction factor increases as a function of building size and windspeed. For large buildings (10 5 ft 2 ) and very intense storms (250 mph), the correction factor is equal to or greater than 4. The cumulative probability of a tornado striking any building type (process, personnel, etc.) was also calculated

Calculation of particulate dispersion in a design-basis tornadic storm from Westinghouse PFDL, Cheswick, Pennsylvania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pepper, D.W.

1978-07-01

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to calculate ground-level air concentration and deposition (due to precipitation scavenging) after a hypothetical tornado strike at the Westinghouse Plutonium Fuel Development Laboratory (PFDL) at Cheswick, Pennsylvania. Plutonium particles less than 20 μm in diameter are assumed to be lifted into the tornadic storm cell by the vortex. The rotational characteristics of the tornadic storm are embedded within the larger mesoscale flow of the storm system. The design-basis translational wind values are based on probabilities associated with existing records of tornado strikes in the vicinity of the plant site. Turbulence exchange coefficients are based on empirical values deduced from experimental data in severe storms and from theoretical assumptions obtained from the literature. The method of moments is used to incorporate subgrid-scale resolution of the concentration within a grid cell volume. This method is a quasi-Lagrangian scheme which minimizes numerical error associated with advection. In all case studies, the effects of updrafts and downdrafts, coupled with scavenging of the particulates by precipitation, account for most of the material being deposited within 20-45 km downwind of the plant site. Ground-level isopleths in the x-y plane show that most of the material is deposited behind and slightly to the left of the centerline trajectory of the storm. Approximately 5% of the material is dispersed into the stratosphere and anvil section of the storm

Necessity of countermeasures for hurricane, typhoon and cyclone in accordance with the progress of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narabayashi, Tadashi; Sugiyama, Kenichiro

2014-01-01

In recent years, according to the progress of global warming, hurricanes and typhoons getting bigger and bigger, about 20% increase per decade. Hurricanes and typhoons are given thermal energy from vaporizing steam from surface of sea water. Hurricane Sandy attacked New York on 22-29, Oct. 2012. Typhoon 26th attacked Ohshima, Oct. 2013, and Typhoon 30th attacked Philippine on Nov. 4-11. Tropical cyclone Phailin attacked India on Oct. 12, 2013. Its diameter was 2300km. They were all category 5. Human beings are now on the front of the natural disasters. We think the risk is higher than active faults that moves only several thousand years period. In the US, a nuclear power plant stopped its operation when a category 5 hurricane arrived nearby, which was monitored from a weather satellite. The countermeasures for tornado and tsunami will be effective for typhoon. NRA found the lack of description in the new regulatory guideline and they said the management plan should be considered by licensees. The Japan Society of Maintenology will start preparing the guideline for typhoon. (author)

Using Satellite Remote Sensing to Assist the National Weather Service (NWS) in Storm Damage Surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Lori A.; Molthan, Andrew; McGrath, Kevin; Bell, Jordan; Cole, Tony; Burks, Jason

2016-01-01

In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) is charged with performing damage assessments when storm or tornado damage is suspected after a severe weather event. This has led to the development of the Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT), an application for smartphones, tablets and web browsers that allows for the collection, geolocation, and aggregation of various damage indicators collected during storm surveys.

Meeting the Science Needs of the Nation in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy-- A U.S. Geological Survey Science Plan for Support of Restoration and Recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Buxton, Herbert T.; Andersen, Matthew E.; Focazio, Michael J.; Haines, John W.; Hainly, Robert A.; Hippe, Daniel J.; Sugarbaker, Larry J.

2013-01-01

n late October 2012, Hurricane Sandy came ashore during a spring high tide on the New Jersey coastline, delivering hurricane-force winds, storm tides exceeding 19 feet, driving rain, and plummeting temperatures. Hurricane Sandy resulted in 72 direct fatalities in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, and widespread and substantial physical, environmental, ecological, social, and economic impacts estimated at near $50 billion. Before the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, the USGS provided forecasts of potential coastal change; collected oblique aerial photography of pre-storm coastal morphology; deployed storm-surge sensors, rapid-deployment streamgages, wave sensors, and barometric pressure sensors; conducted Light Detection And Ranging (lidar) aerial topographic surveys of coastal areas; and issued a landslide alert for landslide prone areas. During the storm, Tidal Telemetry Networks provided real-time water-level information along the coast. Long-term network and rapid-deployment real-time streamgages and water-quality monitors reported on river levels and changes in water quality. Immediately after the storm, the USGS serviced real-time instrumentation, retrieved data from over 140 storm-surge sensors, and collected other essential environmental data, including more than 830 high-water marks mapping the extent and elevation of the storm surge. Post-storm lidar surveys documented storm impacts to coastal barriers informing response and recovery and providing a new baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The USGS Hazard Data Distribution System served storm related information from many agencies on the Internet on a daily basis. This science plan was developed immediately following Hurricane Sandy to coordinate continuing USGS activities with other agencies and to guide continued data collection and analysis to ensure support for recovery and restoration efforts. The data, information, and tools that are produced by implementing this

Hurricane Harvey: Infrastructure Damage Assessment of Texas' Central Gulf Coast Region

Science.gov (United States)

Mooney, W. D.; Fovenyessy, S.; Patterson, S. F.

2017-12-01

We report a detailed ground-based damage survey for Hurricane Harvey, the first major hurricane to make landfall along the central Texas coast since the 1970 Category 3 Hurricane Celia. Harvey, a Category 4 storm, made landfall near Rockport, Texas on August 25th, 2017 at 10 PM local time. From September 2nd to 5th we visited Rockport and 22 nearby cities to assess the severity of the damage. Nearly all damage observed occurred as a direct result of the hurricane-force winds, rather than a storm surge. This observation is in contrast to the severe damage caused by both high winds and a significant storm surge, locally 3 to 5 m in height, in the 2013 Category 5 Hurricane Haiyan, that devastated the Philippines. We have adopted a damage scale and have given an average damage score for each of the areas investigated. Our damage contour map illustrates the areal variation in damage. The damage observed was widespread with a high degree of variability. Different types of damage included: (1) fallen fences and utility poles; (2) trees with branches broken or completely snapped in half; (3) business signs that were either partially or fully destroyed; (4) partially sunken or otherwise damaged boats; (5) and sheet metal sheds either completely or partially destroyed. There was also varying degrees of damage to both residential and commercial structures. Many homes had (6) roof damage, ranging from minor damage to complete destruction of the roof and second story, and (7) siding damage, where parts or whole sections of the homes siding had been removed. The area that had the lowest average damage score was Corpus Christi, and the areas that had the highest average damage score was both Fulton and Holiday Beach. There is no simple, uniform pattern of damage distribution. Rather, the damage was scattered, revealing hot spots of areas that received more damage than the surrounding area. However, when compared to the NOAA wind swath map, all of the damage was contained within

Subinertial response of the Gulf Stream System to Hurricane Fran of 1996

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Lian; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.; Zhang, Chen

The evidence of subinertial-frequency (with periods from 2 days to 2 weeks) oceanic response to Hurricane Fran of 1996 is documented. Hurricane Fran traveled northward across the Gulf Stream and then over a cool-core trough, known as the Charleston Trough, due east of Charleston, SC and in the lee of the Charleston Bump during the period 4-5 September, 1996. During the passage of the storm, the trough closed into a gyre to form an intense cool-core cyclonic eddy. This cool-core eddy had an initial size of approximately 130 km by 170 km and drifted northeastward along the Gulf Stream front at a speed of 13 to 15 km/day as a subinertial baroclinic wave. Superimposed on this subinertial-frequency wave were near-inertial frequency, internal inertia-gravity waves formed in the stratified mixed-layer base after the passage of the storm. The results from a three-dimensional numerical ocean model confirm the existence of both near-inertial and subinertial-frequency waves in the Gulf Stream system during and after the passage of Hurricane Fran. Model results also showed that hurricane-forced oceanic response can modify Gulf Stream variability at both near-inertial and subinertial frequencies.

A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Vanessa C. C.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Hapke, Cheryl J.

2018-06-01

Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-barrier bay and water level variations within the bay. To accomplish this goal, a high resolution hurricane wind field is used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models over a series of grids with the finest resolution in GSB. The processes that control water levels in the back-barrier bay are investigated by comparing the results of four cases that include: (i) tides only; (ii) tides, winds and waves with no overwash over Fire Island allowed; (iii) tides, winds, waves and limited overwash at the east end of the island; (iv) tides, winds, waves and extensive overwash along the island. The results indicate that strong local wind-driven storm surge along the bay axis had the largest influence on the total water level fluctuations during the hurricane. However, the simulations allowing for overwash have higher correlation with water level observations in GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to eastern GSB during the storm. The computations indicate that overwash of 7500-10,000 m3s-1 was approximately the same as the inflow from the ocean through the major existing inlet. Overall, the model results indicate the complex variability in total water levels driven by tides, ocean storm surge, surge from local winds, and overwash that had a significant impact on the circulation in Great South Bay during Hurricane Sandy.

Understanding the Relationships Between Lightning, Cloud Microphysics, and Airborne Radar-derived Storm Structure During Hurricane Karl (2010)

Science.gov (United States)

Reinhart, Brad; Fuelberg, Henry; Blakeslee, Richard; Mach, Douglas; Heymsfield, Andrew; Bansemer, Aaron; Durden, Stephen L.; Tanelli, Simone; Heymsfield, Gerald; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn

2013-01-01

This study explores relationships between lightning, cloud microphysics, and tropical cyclone (TC) storm structure in Hurricane Karl (16 September 2010) using data collected by the NASA DC-8 and Global Hawk (GH) aircraft during NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment. The research capitalizes on the unique opportunity provided by GRIP to synthesize multiple datasets from two aircraft and analyze the microphysical and kinematic properties of an electrified TC. Five coordinated flight legs through Karl by the DC-8 and GH are investigated, focusing on the inner-core region (within 50km of the storm center) where the lightning was concentrated and the aircraft were well coordinated. GRIP datasets are used to compare properties of electrified and nonelectrified inner-core regions that are related to the noninductive charging mechanism, which is widely accepted to explain the observed electric fields within thunderstorms. Three common characteristics of Karl's electrified regions are identified: 1) strong updrafts of 10-20ms21, 2) deep mixed-phase layers indicated by reflectivities.30 dBZ extending several kilometers above the freezing level, and 3) microphysical environments consisting of graupel, very small ice particles, and the inferred presence of supercooled water. These characteristics describe an environment favorable for in situ noninductive charging and, hence, TC electrification. The electrified regions in Karl's inner core are attributable to a microphysical environment that was conducive to electrification because of occasional, strong convective updrafts in the eyewall.

Hurricane preparedness among elderly residents in South Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Kleier, Jo Ann; Krause, Deirdre; Ogilby, Terry

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to describe factors associated with hurricane preparation and to test a theoretical model of hurricane preparation decision process among a group of elderly residents living in a high-risk geographical area. This is a descriptive, correlational study. A convenience sample consisted of 188 English-speaking individuals who were aged 55 years or older. In addition to demographic information, two survey instruments were used. Theoretical constructs were operationalized through Moon's Hurricane Preparation Questionnaire. Hurricane preparedness was measured by self-reported responses to FEMA's inventory checklist, which addresses the recommended basic steps of preparation. The theoretical model of hurricane preparation decision process was supported. Main barriers to preparation are the need for cooperation from others and cost of preparation. Participants reported having taken many preparatory steps to shelter-in-place, but too few are prepared if their home were storm-damaged or they should have to evacuate. Findings are consistent with previous studies of samples drawn from similar populations. This report provides guidance as to how public health nurses can become involved with the population and develop interventions based on the constructs of the theoretical model. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Next-generation storm tracking for minimizing service interruption

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sznaider, R. [Meteorlogix, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

2002-08-01

Several technological changes have taken place in the field of weather radar since its discovery during World War II. A wide variety of industries have benefited over the years from conventional weather radar displays, providing assistance in forecasting and estimating the potential severity of storms. The characteristics of individual storm cells can now be derived from the next-generation of weather radar systems (NEXRAD). The determination of which storm cells possess distinct features such as large hail or developing tornadoes was made possible through the fusing of various pieces of information with radar pictures. To exactly determine when and where a storm will hit, this data can be combined and overlaid into a display that includes the geographical physical landmarks of a specific region. Combining Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and storm tracking provides a more complete, timely and accurate forecast, which clearly benefits the electric utilities industries. The generation and production of energy are dependent on how hot or cold it will be today and tomorrow. The author described each major feature of this next-generation weather radar system. 9 figs.

Annihilation and Reanimation of a Tornado in the Improved Tornado Tube

Science.gov (United States)

Bednarek, Stanislaw

2016-01-01

Some new experiments using an improved version of the "tornado tube" are described here. The improved tornado tube consists of two plastic transparent bottles whose openings are connected with a ball valve, available at most hardware stores. After being filled with fluid and inverting, this tube allows demonstration of the generation,…

Estimating the human influence on Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria

Science.gov (United States)

Wehner, M. F.; Patricola, C. M.; Risser, M. D.

2017-12-01

Attribution of the human-induced climate change influence on the physical characteristics of individual extreme weather events has become an advanced science over the past decade. However, it is only recently that such quantification of anthropogenic influences on event magnitudes and probability of occurrence could be applied to very extreme storms such as hurricanes. We present results from two different classes of attribution studies for the impactful Atlantic hurricanes of 2017. The first is an analysis of the record rainfall amounts during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas area. We analyzed observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of ENSO. We found that human-induced climate change likely increased Hurricane Harvey's total rainfall by at least 19%, and likely increased the chances of the observed rainfall by a factor of at least 3.5. This suggests that changes exceeded Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, motivating attribution studies using dynamical climate models. The second analysis consists of two sets of hindcast simulations of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at 4.5 km resolution. The first uses realistic boundary and initial conditions and present-day greenhouse gas forcings while the second uses perturbed conditions and pre-industrial greenhouse has forcings to simulate counterfactual storms without anthropogenic influences. These simulations quantify the fraction of Harvey's precipitation attributable to human activities and test the super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling suggested by the observational analysis. We will further quantify the human influence on intensity for Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

Satellite Assessment of Bio-Optical Properties of Northern Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

OpenAIRE

Lohrenz, Steven E.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Chen, Xiaogang; Tuel, Merritt

2008-01-01

The impacts of major tropical storms events on coastal waters include sediment resuspension, intense water column mixing, and increased delivery of terrestrial materials into coastal waters. We examined satellite imagery acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ocean color sensor aboard the Aqua spacecraft following two major hurricane events: Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall on 29 August 2005, and Hurricane Rita, which made landfall on 24 September. MODIS A...

Assessing a Tornado Climatology from Global Tornado Intensity Distributions

OpenAIRE

Feuerstein, B.; Dotzek, N.; Grieser, J.

2005-01-01

Recent work demonstrated that the shape of tornado intensity distributions from various regions worldwide is well described by Weibull functions. This statistical modeling revealed a strong correlation between the fit parameters c for shape and b for scale regardless of the data source. In the present work it is shown that the quality of the Weibull fits is optimized if only tornado reports of F1 and higher intensity are used and that the c–b correlation does indeed reflect a universal featur...

Hurricane Sandy science plan: coastal topographic and bathymetric data to support hurricane impact assessment and response

Science.gov (United States)

Stronko, Jakob M.

2013-01-01

Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry • Impacts to coastal beaches and barriers • Impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology • Impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures • Impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife This fact sheet focuses on coastal topography and bathymetry. This fact sheet focuses on coastal topography and bathymetry.

Optimism following a tornado disaster.

Science.gov (United States)

Suls, Jerry; Rose, Jason P; Windschitl, Paul D; Smith, Andrew R

2013-05-01

Effects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students, local residents contacted through random-digit dialing, and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. Students and community residents reported being less vulnerable than their peers at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after the disaster. In Studies 1 and 2, absolute risk estimates were more optimistic with time, whereas comparative vulnerability was stable. Residents of affected neighborhoods (Study 3), surprisingly, reported less comparative vulnerability and lower "gut-level" numerical likelihood estimates at 6 months, but later their estimates resembled the unaffected residents. Likelihood estimates (10%-12%), however, exceeded the 1% risk calculated by storm experts, and gut-level versus statistical-level estimates were more optimistic. Although people believed they had approximately a 1-in-10 chance of injury from future tornadoes (i.e., an overestimate), they thought their risk was lower than peers.

Hurricane Recovery and Ecological Resilience: Measuring the Impacts of Wetland Alteration Post Hurricane Ike on the Upper TX Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Reja, Md Y.; Brody, Samuel D.; Highfield, Wesley E.; Newman, Galen D.

2017-12-01

Recovery after hurricane events encourages new development activities and allows reconstruction through the conversion of naturally occurring wetlands to other land uses. This research investigates the degree to which hurricane recovery activities in coastal communities are undermining the ability of these places to attenuate the impacts of future storm events. Specifically, it explores how and to what extent wetlands are being affected by the CWA Section 404 permitting program in the context of post-Hurricane Ike 2008 recovery. Wetland alteration patterns are examined by selecting a control group (Aransas and Brazoria counties with no hurricane impact) vs. study group (Chambers and Galveston counties with hurricane impact) research design with a pretest-posttest measurement analyzing the variables such as permit types, pre-post Ike permits, land cover classes, and within-outside the 100-year floodplain. Results show that permitting activities in study group have increased within the 100-year floodplain and palustrine wetlands continue to be lost compare to the control group. Simultaneously, post-Ike individual and nationwide permits increased in the Hurricane Ike impacted area. A binomial logistic regression model indicated that permits within the study group, undeveloped land cover class, and individual and nationwide permit type have a substantial effect on post-Ike permits, suggesting that post-Ike permits have significant impact on wetland losses. These findings indicate that recovery after the hurricane is compromising ecological resiliency in coastal communities. The study outcome may be applied to policy decisions in managing wetlands during a long-term recovery process to maintain natural function for future flood mitigation.

Seamless Modeling for Research & Predictability of Severe Tropical Storms from Weather-to-Climate Timescales

Science.gov (United States)

Ramaswamy, V.; Chen, J. H.; Delworth, T. L.; Knutson, T. R.; Lin, S. J.; Murakami, H.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Damages from catastrophic tropical storms such as the 2017 destructive hurricanes compel an acceleration of scientific advancements to understand the genesis, underlying mechanisms, frequency, track, intensity, and landfall of these storms. The advances are crucial to provide improved early information for planners and responders. We discuss the development and utilization of a global modeling capability based on a novel atmospheric dynamical core ("Finite-Volume Cubed Sphere or FV3") which captures the realism of the recent tropical storms and is a part of the NOAA Next-Generation Global Prediction System. This capability is also part of an emerging seamless modeling system at NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for simulating the frequency of storms on seasonal and longer timescales with high fidelity e.g., Atlantic hurricane frequency over the past decades. In addition, the same modeling system has also been employed to evaluate the nature of projected storms on the multi-decadal scales under the influence of anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The seamless modeling system thus facilitates research into and the predictability of severe tropical storms across diverse timescales of practical interest to several societal sectors.

Using Satellite Imagery to Identify Tornado Damage Tracks and Recovery from the April 27, 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Tony A.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Bell, Jordan R.

2014-01-01

Emergency response to natural disasters requires coordination between multiple local, state, and federal agencies. Single, relatively weak tornado events may require comparatively simple response efforts; but larger "outbreak" events with multiple strong, long-track tornadoes can benefit from additional tools to help expedite these efforts. Meteorologists from NOAA's National Weather Service conduct field surveys to map tornado tracks, assess damage, and determine the tornado intensity following each event. Moderate and high resolution satellite imagery can support these surveys by providing a high-level view of the affected areas. Satellite imagery could then be used to target areas for immediate survey or to corroborate the results of the survey after it is completed. In this study, the feasibility of using satellite imagery to identify tornado damage tracks was determined by comparing the characteristics of tracks observed from low-earth orbit to tracks assessed during the official NWS storm survey process. Of the 68 NWS confirmed centerlines, 24 tracks (35.3%) could be distinguished from other surface features using satellite imagery. Within each EF category, 0% of EF-0, 3% of EF-1, 50% of EF-2, 77.7% of EF-3, 87.5% of EF-4 and 100% of EF-5 tornadoes were detected. It was shown that satellite data can be used to identify tornado damage tracks in MODIS and ASTER NDVI imagery, where damage to vegetation creates a sharp drop in values though the minimum EF-category which can be detected is dependent upon the type of sensor used and underlying vegetation. Near-real time data from moderate resolution sensors compare favorably to field surveys after the event and suggest that the data can provide some value in the assessment process.

Rapid shelf-wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Seroka, Greg; Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

2017-06-01

Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead-of-eye-center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation-validated, high-resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid-Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)-with an inshore Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season-and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)-with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead-of-eye-center depth-averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead-of-eye-center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3-D coupled atmosphere-ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels.

Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

2017-01-01

Abstract Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead‐of‐eye‐center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation‐validated, high‐resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid‐Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)—with an inshore Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season—and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)—with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead‐of‐eye‐center depth‐averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead‐of‐eye‐center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3‐D coupled atmosphere‐ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels. PMID:28944132

JLAB Hurricane recovery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A. Hutton; D. Arenius; J. Benesch; S. Chattopadhyay; E. F. Daly; O. Garza; R. Kazimi; R. Lauzi; L. Merminga; W. Merz; R. Nelson; W. Oren; M. Poelker; P. Powers; J. Preble; V. Ganni; C. R. Reece; R. Rimmer; M. Spata; S. Suhring

2004-01-01

Hurricane Isabel, originally a Category 5 storm, arrived at Jefferson Lab on September 18, 2003 with winds of only 75 mph, creating little direct damage to the infrastructure. However, electric power was lost for four days allowing the superconducting cryomodules to warm up and causing a total loss of the liquid helium. The subsequent recovery of the cryomodules and the impact of the considerable amount of opportunistic preventive maintenance provides important lessons for all accelerator complexes, not only those with superconducting elements. The details of how the recovery process was structured and the resulting improvement in accelerator availability will be discussed in detail

Shelf sediment transport during hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Kehui; Mickey, Rangley C.; Chen, Qin; Harris, Courtney K.; Hetland, Robert D.; Hu, Kelin; Wang, Jiaze

2016-05-01

Hurricanes can greatly modify the sedimentary record, but our coastal scientific community has rather limited capability to predict hurricane-induced sediment deposition. A three-dimensional sediment transport model was developed in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to study seabed erosion and deposition on the Louisiana shelf in response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the year 2005. Sensitivity tests were performed on both erosional and depositional processes for a wide range of erosional rates and settling velocities, and uncertainty analysis was done on critical shear stresses using the polynomial chaos approximation method. A total of 22 model runs were performed in sensitivity and uncertainty tests. Estimated maximum erosional depths were sensitive to the inputs, but horizontal erosional patterns seemed to be controlled mainly by hurricane tracks, wave-current combined shear stresses, seabed grain sizes, and shelf bathymetry. During the passage of two hurricanes, local resuspension and deposition dominated the sediment transport mechanisms. Hurricane Katrina followed a shelf-perpendicular track before making landfall and its energy dissipated rapidly within about 48 h along the eastern Louisiana coast. In contrast, Hurricane Rita followed a more shelf-oblique track and disturbed the seabed extensively during its 84-h passage from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Louisiana-Texas border. Conditions to either side of Hurricane Rita's storm track differed substantially, with the region to the east having stronger winds, taller waves and thus deeper erosions. This study indicated that major hurricanes can disturb the shelf at centimeter to meter levels. Each of these two hurricanes suspended seabed sediment mass that far exceeded the annual sediment inputs from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers, but the net transport from shelves to estuaries is yet to be determined. Future studies should focus on the modeling of sediment exchange between

Numerical modeling of salt marsh morphological change induced by Hurricane Sandy

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Kelin; Chen, Qin; Wang, Hongqing; Hartig, Ellen K.; Orton, Philip M.

2018-01-01

The salt marshes of Jamaica Bay serve as a recreational outlet for New York City residents, mitigate wave impacts during coastal storms, and provide habitat for critical wildlife species. Hurricanes have been recognized as one of the critical drivers of coastal wetland morphology due to their effects on hydrodynamics and sediment transport, deposition, and erosion processes. In this study, the Delft3D modeling suite was utilized to examine the effects of Hurricane Sandy (2012) on salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay. Observed marsh elevation change and accretion from rod Surface Elevation Tables and feldspar Marker Horizons (SET-MH) and hydrodynamic measurements during Hurricane Sandy were used to calibrate and validate the wind-waves-surge-sediment transport-morphology coupled model. The model results agreed well with in situ field measurements. The validated model was then used to detect salt marsh morphological change due to Sandy across Jamaica Bay. Model results indicate that the island-wide morphological changes in the bay's salt marshes due to Sandy were in the range of −30 mm (erosion) to +15 mm (deposition), and spatially complex and heterogeneous. The storm generated paired deposition and erosion patches at local scales. Salt marshes inside the west section of the bay showed erosion overall while marshes inside the east section showed deposition from Sandy. The net sediment amount that Sandy brought into the bay is only about 1% of the total amount of reworked sediment within the bay during the storm. Numerical experiments show that waves and vegetation played a critical role in sediment transport and associated wetland morphological change in Jamaica Bay. Furthermore, without the protection of vegetation, the marsh islands of Jamaica Bay would experience both more erosion and less accretion in coastal storms.

Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

Science.gov (United States)

Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

2011-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

30 CFR 250.192 - What reports and statistics must I submit relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural occurrence? 250.192 Section 250.192 Mineral Resources... statistics must I submit relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural occurrence? (a) You must... tropical storm, or an earthquake. Statistics include facilities and rigs evacuated and the amount of...

A Simulation Tool for Hurricane Evacuation Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel J. Fonseca

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Atlantic hurricanes and severe tropical storms are a serious threat for the communities in the Gulf of Mexico region. Such storms are violent and destructive. In response to these dangers, coastal evacuation may be ordered. This paper describes the development of a simulation model to analyze the movement of vehicles through I-65, a major US Interstate highway that runs north off the coastal City of Mobile, Alabama, towards the State of Tennessee, during a massive evacuation originated by a disastrous event such a hurricane. The constructed simulation platform consists of a primary and two secondary models. The primary model is based on the entry of vehicles from the 20 on-ramps to I-65. The two secondary models assist the primary model with related traffic events such as car breakdowns and accidents, traffic control measures, interarrival signaling, and unforeseen emergency incidents, among others. Statistical testing was performed on the data generated by the simulation model to indentify variation in relevant traffic variables affecting the timely flow of vehicles travelling north. The performed statistical analysis focused on the closing of alternative on-ramps throughout the Interstate.

Hurricane Sandy science plan: coastal impact assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Stronko, Jakob M.

2013-01-01

Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: coastal topography and bathymetry, impacts to coastal beaches and barriers, impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology, impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures, impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife. This fact sheet focuses assessing impacts to coastal beaches and barriers.

Silver linings: a personal memoir about Hurricane Katrina and fungal volatiles

OpenAIRE

Bennett, Joan W.

2015-01-01

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the levees protecting New Orleans, Louisiana failed. Because approximately 80% of the city was under sea level, widespread flooding ensued. As a resident of New Orleans who had evacuated before the storm and a life-long researcher on filamentous fungi, I had known what to expect. After the hurricane I traveled home with a suitcase full of Petri dishes and sampling equipment so as to study the fungi that were “eating my house.” Not only were surfaces cove...

The tornado risk in eastern Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asmis, G.J.K.

1980-01-01

In the United States, a tornado design requirement was imposed on nuclear power plants in 1967. This requirement precipitated considerable study on the probability of toronado strikes and the consequent damage. As a data base, records of thousands of tornadoes which occurred in the U.S. in the last 50 years were available. Unfortunately, no such data base exists for tornadoes and other extreme atmospheric events in Canada. A theoretical study employing a Monte Carlo technique was used to simulate the tornado environment for a hypothetical site. This exercise concluded that a site the size of a large nuclear park such as Bruce can be traversed by a tornado every 500 years. The results are very preliminary since very little Canadian data or meteorological considerations have been involved. The results do, however, show that the frequency of a tornado strike is in the order of 10 -3 events/annum and is therefore of concern in the safety assessment of nuclear facilities. (auth)

Calculation of particulate dispersion in a design-basis tornadic storm from the Exxon Nuclear Company, Richland, Washington

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pepper, D.W.

1978-07-01

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to calculate ground-level air concentration and deposition (due to precipitation scavenging) after a hypothetical tornado strike at the Exxon Nuclear Company at Richland, Washington. Plutonium particles less than 20 ..mu..m in diameter are assumed to be lifted into the tornadic storm cell by the vortex. The rotational characteristics of the tornadic storm are embedded within the larger mesoscale flow of the storm system. The design-basis translational wind values are based on probabilities associated with existing records of tornado strikes in the vicinity of the plant site. Turbulence exchange coefficients are based on empirical values deduced from experimental data in severe storms and from theoretical assumptions obtained from the literature. The method of moments is used to incorporate subgrid-scale resolution of the concentration within a grid cell volume. This method is a quasi-Lagrangian scheme which minimizes numerical error associated with advection. In all case studies, the effects of updrafts and downdrafts, coupled with scavenging of the particulates by precipitation, account for most of the material being deposited within 20 to 45 km downwind of the plant site. Ground-level isopleths in the x-y plane show that most of the material is deposited behind and slightly to the left of the centerline trajectory of the storm. Approximately 5% of the material is dispersed into the stratosphere and anvil section of the storm.

Calculation of particulate dispersion in a design-basis tornadic storm from the Exxon Nuclear Company, Richland, Washington

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pepper, D.W.

1978-07-01

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to calculate ground-level air concentration and deposition (due to precipitation scavenging) after a hypothetical tornado strike at the Exxon Nuclear Company at Richland, Washington. Plutonium particles less than 20 μm in diameter are assumed to be lifted into the tornadic storm cell by the vortex. The rotational characteristics of the tornadic storm are embedded within the larger mesoscale flow of the storm system. The design-basis translational wind values are based on probabilities associated with existing records of tornado strikes in the vicinity of the plant site. Turbulence exchange coefficients are based on empirical values deduced from experimental data in severe storms and from theoretical assumptions obtained from the literature. The method of moments is used to incorporate subgrid-scale resolution of the concentration within a grid cell volume. This method is a quasi-Lagrangian scheme which minimizes numerical error associated with advection. In all case studies, the effects of updrafts and downdrafts, coupled with scavenging of the particulates by precipitation, account for most of the material being deposited within 20 to 45 km downwind of the plant site. Ground-level isopleths in the x-y plane show that most of the material is deposited behind and slightly to the left of the centerline trajectory of the storm. Approximately 5% of the material is dispersed into the stratosphere and anvil section of the storm

Tornado protection by venting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cavanagh, C.A.

1987-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the ability to protect a modern nuclear power plant from the effects of a tornado by the use of a system of venting in all safety-related structures outside of the containment. The paper demonstrates this by presenting a method of analysis and of equipment selection that fully complies with the intent and the letter of applicable federal regulatory guides. A report of an actual tornado in the City of Kalamazoo, Michigan, suggests that the concept of sealing a plant during a tornado may not always be applicable

Petroleum and hazardous material releases from industrial facilities associated with Hurricane Katrina.

Science.gov (United States)

Santella, Nicholas; Steinberg, Laura J; Sengul, Hatice

2010-04-01

Hurricane Katrina struck an area dense with industry, causing numerous releases of petroleum and hazardous materials. This study integrates information from a number of sources to describe the frequency, causes, and effects of these releases in order to inform analysis of risk from future hurricanes. Over 200 onshore releases of hazardous chemicals, petroleum, or natural gas were reported. Storm surge was responsible for the majority of petroleum releases and failure of storage tanks was the most common mechanism of release. Of the smaller number of hazardous chemical releases reported, many were associated with flaring from plant startup, shutdown, or process upset. In areas impacted by storm surge, 10% of the facilities within the Risk Management Plan (RMP) and Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) databases and 28% of SIC 1311 facilities experienced accidental releases. In areas subject only to hurricane strength winds, a lower fraction (1% of RMP and TRI and 10% of SIC 1311 facilities) experienced a release while 1% of all facility types reported a release in areas that experienced tropical storm strength winds. Of industrial facilities surveyed, more experienced indirect disruptions such as displacement of workers, loss of electricity and communication systems, and difficulty acquiring supplies and contractors for operations or reconstruction (55%), than experienced releases. To reduce the risk of hazardous material releases and speed the return to normal operations under these difficult conditions, greater attention should be devoted to risk-based facility design and improved prevention and response planning.

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Wind Speed Retrievals and Assessment Using Dropsondes

Science.gov (United States)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Biswas, Sayak K.

2018-01-01

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an experimental C-band passive microwave radiometer designed to map the horizontal structure of surface wind speed fields in hurricanes. New data processing and customized retrieval approaches were developed after the 2015 Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment, which featured flights over Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, Marty, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Erika. These new approaches produced maps of surface wind speed that looked more realistic than those from previous campaigns. Dropsondes from the High Definition Sounding System (HDSS) that was flown with HIRAD on a WB-57 high altitude aircraft in TCI were used to assess the quality of the HIRAD wind speed retrievals. The root mean square difference between HIRAD-retrieved surface wind speeds and dropsonde-estimated surface wind speeds was 6.0 meters per second. The largest differences between HIRAD and dropsonde winds were from data points where storm motion during dropsonde descent compromised the validity of the comparisons. Accounting for this and for uncertainty in the dropsonde measurements themselves, we estimate the root mean square error for the HIRAD retrievals as around 4.7 meters per second. Prior to the 2015 TCI experiment, HIRAD had previously flown on the WB-57 for missions across Hurricanes Gonzalo (2014), Earl (2010), and Karl (2010). Configuration of the instrument was not identical to the 2015 flights, but the methods devised after the 2015 flights may be applied to that previous data in an attempt to improve retrievals from those cases.

Effect of Hurricane Andrew on the Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station from August 20--30, 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hebdon, F.J.

1993-03-01

On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew, a Category 4 hurricane, struck the Turkey Point Electrical Generating Station with sustained winds of 145 mph (233 km/h). This is the report of the team that the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) jointly sponsored (1) to review the damage that the hurricane caused the nuclear units and the utility's actions to prepare for the storm and recover from it, and (2) to compile lessons that might benefit other nuclear reactor facilities

Mexico tornado climatology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Macías Medrano

2013-07-01

Full Text Available A brief introduction on some features of tornado database in Mexico is exposed showing its substantive criteria. We resent a brief analysis about main Mexican tornadoes´ characteristics, based on data collected between 2000 to 2010, talking about spatial and temporal expressions (historical, seasonal and horary in order to show the importance of it destruction capacity and also the people´s vulnerability in Mexico.

"Just-in-Time" Personal Preparedness: Downloads and Usage Patterns of the American Red Cross Hurricane Application During Hurricane Sandy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirsch, Thomas D; Circh, Ryan; Bissell, Richard A; Goldfeder, Matthew

2016-10-01

Personal preparedness is a core activity but has been found to be frequently inadequate. Smart phone applications have many uses for the public, including preparedness. In 2012 the American Red Cross began releasing "disaster" apps for family preparedness and recovery. The Hurricane App was widely used during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Patterns of download of the application were analyzed by using a download tracking tool by the American Red Cross and Google Analytics. Specific variables included date, time, and location of individual downloads; number of page visits and views; and average time spent on pages. As Hurricane Sandy approached in late October, daily downloads peaked at 152,258 on the day of landfall and by mid-November reached 697,585. Total page views began increasing on October 25 with over 4,000,000 page views during landfall compared to 3.7 million the first 3 weeks of October with a 43,980% increase in views of the "Right Before" page and a 76,275% increase in views of the "During" page. The Hurricane App offered a new type of "just-in-time" training that reached tens of thousands of families in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy. The app allowed these families to access real-time information before and after the storm to help them prepare and recover. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;page 1 of 6).

The effects of Hurricane Hugo on suspended-sediment loads, Lago Loiza Basin, Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Gellis, A.

1993-01-01

In the two main tributaries that enter Lago Loiza, Rio Grande de Loiza and Rio Gurabo, 99 600 tonnes of suspended sediment was transported by 58.2??106 m3 of runoff in a 48 h period. The storm-average suspended-sediment concentration in the Rio Grande de Loiza for Hurricane Hugo was 2290 mgl-1, the second lowest for the 12 storms that have been monitored at this site. In Rio Gurabo the storm-average suspended-sediment concentration was 1420 mg l -1, the sixth lowest recorded out of 15 monitored storms. In Quebrada Salvatierra, a small tributary to Rio Grande de Loiza, suspended-sediment concentrations were as low as 33 mg l-1 during peak runoff of 20m3s-1. Normally the suspended-sediment concentrations at this discharge are 300 mg l-1. Hurricane force winds seem to be the most important factor contributing to the lower than expected suspended-sediment loads. High winds caused vegetation and debris to be dislodged and displaced. Debris accumulated on hillslopes and in small channels, blocked bridges and formed debris dams. These dams caused local backwater effects that reduced stream velocities and decreased suspended-sediment loads. -from Author

A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Vanessa C. C.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Hapke, Cheryl J.

2018-01-01

Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-barrier bay and water level variations within the bay. To accomplish this goal, a high resolution hurricane wind field is used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models over a series of grids with the finest resolution in GSB. The processes that control water levels in the back-barrier bay are investigated by comparing the results of four cases that include: (i) tides only; (ii) tides, winds and waves with no overwash over Fire Island allowed; (iii) tides, winds, waves and limited overwash at the east end of the island; (iv) tides, winds, waves and extensive overwash along the island. The results indicate that strong local wind-driven storm surge along the bay axis had the largest influence on the total water level fluctuations during the hurricane. However, the simulations allowing for overwash have higher correlation with water level observations in GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to eastern GSB during the storm. The computations indicate that overwash of 7500–10,000 m3s−1 was approximately the same as the inflow from the ocean through the major existing inlet. Overall, the model results indicate the complex variability in total water levels driven by tides, ocean storm surge, surge from local winds, and overwash that had a significant impact on the circulation in Great South Bay during Hurricane Sandy.

A hurricane modification process, applying a new technology tested for warm cloud seeding to produce artificial rains

Science.gov (United States)

Imai, T.; Martin, I.; Iha, K.

A Hurricane Modification Process with application of a new clean technology attested for seeding warm clouds with collector pure water droplets of controlled size to produce artificial rains in warm clouds is proposed to modify the hurricanes in order to avoid their formation or to modify the trajectory or to weaken hurricanes in action The Process is based on the time-dependent effects of cloud droplets microphysical processes for the formation and growth of the natural water droplets inside the clouds releasing large volumes of Aeolian energy to form the strong rotative upside air movements A new Paradigm proposed explain the strong and rotative winds created with the water droplets formation and grow process releasing the rotative Aeolian Energy in Tornados and Hurricanes This theory receive the Gold Medal Award of the Water Science in the 7th International Water Symposium 2005 in France Artificial seeding in the Process studies condensing a specified percentage of the water vapor to liquid water droplets where we observe the release of larges intensity of the Aeolian energy creates the hurricanes producing appreciable perturbations With they rotating strong wind created by the water droplets releasing Aeolian energy The Amplitudes of these winds are comparable to natural disasters Once this natural thermal process is completely understood artificial process to modify the hurricanes become scientifically possible to avoid them to happen or to deviate their trajectory or to weaken the already formed hurricanes In this work

Dynamics of the chemical composition of rainwater throughout Hurricane Irene

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. M. Mullaugh

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Sequential sampling of rainwater from Hurricane Irene was carried out in Wilmington, NC, USA on 26 and 27 August 2011. Eleven samples were analyzed for pH, major ions (Cl−, NO3−, SO42−, Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, NH4+, dissolved organic carbon (DOC and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2. Hurricane Irene contributed 16% of the total rainwater and 18% of the total chloride wet deposition received in Wilmington NC during all of 2011. This work highlights the main physical factors influencing the chemical composition of tropical storm rainwater: wind speed, wind direction, back trajectory and vertical mixing, time of day and total rain volume. Samples collected early in the storm, when winds blew out of the east, contained dissolved components indicative of marine sources (salts from sea spray and low DOC. The sea-salt components in the samples had two maxima in concentration during the storm the first of which occurred before the volume of rain had sufficiently washed out sea salt from the atmosphere and the second when back trajectories showed large volumes of marine surface air were lifted. As the storm progressed and winds shifted to a westerly direction, the chemical composition of the rainwater became characteristic of terrestrial storms (high DOC and NH4+ and low sea salt. This work demonstrates that tropical storms are not only responsible for significant wet deposition of marine components to land, but terrestrial components can also become entrained in rainwater, which can then be delivered to coastal waters via wet deposition. This study also underscores why analysis of one composite sample can lead to an incomplete interpretation of the factors that influence the chemically divergent analytes in rainwater during extreme weather events.

Kinetic Energy of Tornadoes in the United States.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tyler Fricker

Full Text Available Tornadoes can cause catastrophic destruction. Here total kinetic energy (TKE as a metric of destruction is computed from the fraction of the tornado path experiencing various damage levels and a characteristic wind speed for each level. The fraction of the path is obtained from a model developed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that combines theory with empirical data. TKE is validated as a useful metric by comparing it to other indexes and loss indicators. Half of all tornadoes have TKE exceeding 62.1 GJ and a quarter have TKE exceeding 383.2 GJ. One percent of the tornadoes have TKE exceeding 31.9 TJ. April has more energy than May with fewer tornadoes; March has more energy than June with half as many tornadoes. September has the least energy but November and December have the fewest tornadoes. Alabama ranks number one in terms of tornado energy with 2.48 PJ over the period 2007-2013. TKE can be used to help better understand the changing nature of tornado activity.

Kinetic Energy of Tornadoes in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Fricker, Tyler; Elsner, James B

2015-01-01

Tornadoes can cause catastrophic destruction. Here total kinetic energy (TKE) as a metric of destruction is computed from the fraction of the tornado path experiencing various damage levels and a characteristic wind speed for each level. The fraction of the path is obtained from a model developed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that combines theory with empirical data. TKE is validated as a useful metric by comparing it to other indexes and loss indicators. Half of all tornadoes have TKE exceeding 62.1 GJ and a quarter have TKE exceeding 383.2 GJ. One percent of the tornadoes have TKE exceeding 31.9 TJ. April has more energy than May with fewer tornadoes; March has more energy than June with half as many tornadoes. September has the least energy but November and December have the fewest tornadoes. Alabama ranks number one in terms of tornado energy with 2.48 PJ over the period 2007-2013. TKE can be used to help better understand the changing nature of tornado activity.

Estimating the spatial distribution of power outages during hurricanes in the Gulf coast region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, S.-R.; Guikema, Seth D.; Quiring, Steven M.; Lee, Kyung-Ho; Rosowsky, David; Davidson, Rachel A.

2009-01-01

Hurricanes have caused severe damage to the electric power system throughout the Gulf coast region of the US, and electric power is critical to post-hurricane disaster response as well as to long-term recovery for impacted areas. Managing power outage risk and preparing for post-storm recovery efforts requires accurate methods for estimating the number and location of power outages. This paper builds on past work on statistical power outage estimation models to develop, test, and demonstrate a statistical power outage risk estimation model for the Gulf Coast region of the US. Previous work used binary hurricane-indicator variables representing particular hurricanes in order to achieve a good fit to the past data. To use these models for predicting power outages during future hurricanes, one must implicitly assume that an approaching hurricane is similar to the average of the past hurricanes. The model developed in this paper replaces these indicator variables with physically measurable variables, enabling future predictions to be based on only well-understood characteristics of hurricanes. The models were developed using data about power outages during nine hurricanes in three states served by a large, investor-owned utility company in the Gulf Coast region

The Historical Context of the 2017 Hurricane Season's Ocean Warmth

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, P.; Akella, S.; Trenberth, K. E.; Lijing, C.; Abraham, J. P.

2017-12-01

Public discussion of the unusually active 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season quickly focused on the role of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic. Some meteorologists characterized them as near-normal, while climate-focused voices tended to characterize them as warmer than average, placing them in the context of anthropogenic warming. Much of this divergence in views can be explained by the relatively recent, relatively warm baseline (1981-2010) used for daily SST information, such as provided by OISSTv2. Longer term records of SSTs, such as HadISST, HadSST, and ERSST only attempt to provide monthly averages, while tropical cyclones have lifetimes on the timescale of days. Further, hurricanes create a cold wake which can impact storm movement and intensity, as well as subsequent storms, but is gradually wiped out by the sun. This process is further complicated by the role of ocean heat content (OHC), an increase in which can mitigate the impact of upwelled water. Here we examine the statistical characteristics of daily SSTs and OHC during the satellite record, including their temporal autocorrelation, and use this information in conjunction with longer term monthly records to bound what we can and cannot confidently say about the longer term historical context of the storms Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

Characteristics of tornado generated missiles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharyya, A.K.; Boritz, R.C.; Niyogi, P.K.

1975-10-01

The development of techniques designed to calculate tornado missile velocities is traced. It is shown that there is a need for a consistent method for obtaining missile velocities for a variety of tornado parameters. A consistent method for determination of trajectories and velocities of missiles generated by a tornado is described. The effects of plant layout upon missile impact velocity at a given building are discussed from the point of view of determining the necessary missile barrier characteristics. 19 references

Early Dialysis and Adverse Outcomes After Hurricane Sandy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lurie, Nicole; Finne, Kristen; Worrall, Chris; Jauregui, Maria; Thaweethai, Tanayott; Margolis, Gregg; Kelman, Jeffrey

2015-09-01

Hemodialysis patients have historically experienced diminished access to care and increased adverse outcomes after natural disasters. Although "early dialysis" in advance of a storm is promoted as a best practice, evidence for its effectiveness as a protective measure is lacking. Building on prior work, we examined the relationship between the receipt of dialysis ahead of schedule before the storm (also known as early dialysis) and adverse outcomes of patients with end-stage renal disease in the areas most affected by Hurricane Sandy. Retrospective cohort analysis, using claims data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Datalink Project. Patients receiving long-term hemodialysis in New York City and the state of New Jersey, the areas most affected by Hurricane Sandy. Receipt of early dialysis compared to their usual treatment pattern in the week prior to the storm. Emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and 30-day mortality following the storm. Of 13,836 study patients, 8,256 (60%) received early dialysis. In unadjusted logistic regression models, patients who received early dialysis were found to have lower odds of ED visits (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.63-0.89; P=0.001) and hospitalizations (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.65-0.92; P=0.004) in the week of the storm and similar odds of 30-day mortality (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.58-1.09; P=0.2). In adjusted multivariable logistic regression models, receipt of early dialysis was associated with lower odds of ED visits (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67-0.96; P=0.01) and hospitalizations (OR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.66-0.94; P=0.01) in the week of the storm and 30-day mortality (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52-0.997; P=0.048). Inability to determine which patients were offered early dialysis and declined and whether important unmeasured patient characteristics are associated with receipt of early dialysis. Patients who received early dialysis had significantly lower odds of having an ED visit and hospitalization in the week of the storm and of

Hurricane Harvey Building Damage Assessment Using UAV Data

Science.gov (United States)

Yeom, J.; Jung, J.; Chang, A.; Choi, I.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey which was extremely destructive major hurricane struck southern Texas, U.S.A on August 25, causing catastrophic flooding and storm damages. We visited Rockport suffered severe building destruction and conducted UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) surveying for building damage assessment. UAV provides very high resolution images compared with traditional remote sensing data. In addition, prompt and cost-effective damage assessment can be performed regardless of several limitations in other remote sensing platforms such as revisit interval of satellite platforms, complicated flight plan in aerial surveying, and cloud amounts. In this study, UAV flight and GPS surveying were conducted two weeks after hurricane damage to generate an orthomosaic image and a DEM (Digital Elevation Model). 3D region growing scheme has been proposed to quantitatively estimate building damages considering building debris' elevation change and spectral difference. The result showed that the proposed method can be used for high definition building damage assessment in a time- and cost-effective way.

Satellite Assessment of Bio-Optical Properties of Northern Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Science.gov (United States)

Lohrenz, Steven E; Cai, Wei-Jun; Chen, Xiaogang; Tuel, Merritt

2008-07-10

The impacts of major tropical storms events on coastal waters include sediment resuspension, intense water column mixing, and increased delivery of terrestrial materials into coastal waters. We examined satellite imagery acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ocean color sensor aboard the Aqua spacecraft following two major hurricane events: Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall on 29 August 2005, and Hurricane Rita, which made landfall on 24 September. MODIS Aqua true color imagery revealed high turbidity levels in shelf waters immediately following the storms indicative of intense resuspension. However, imagery following the landfall of Katrina showed relatively rapid return of shelf water mass properties to pre-storm conditions. Indeed, MODIS Aqua-derived estimates of diffuse attenuation at 490 nm (K_490) and chlorophyll (chlor_a) from mid-August prior to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina were comparable to those observed in mid-September following the storm. Regions of elevated K_490 and chlor_a were evident in offshore waters and appeared to be associated with cyclonic circulation (cold-core eddies) identified on the basis of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA). Imagery acquired shortly after Hurricane Rita made landfall showed increased water column turbidity extending over a large area of the shelf off Louisiana and Texas, consistent with intense resuspension and sediment disturbance. An interannual comparison of satellite-derived estimates of K_490 for late September and early October revealed relatively lower levels in 2005, compared to the mean for the prior three years, in the vicinity of the Mississippi River birdfoot delta. In contrast, levels above the previous three year mean were observed off Texas and Louisiana 7-10 d after the passage of Rita. The lower values of K_490 near the delta could be attributed to relatively low river discharge during the preceding months of the 2005 season. The elevated levels off Texas and

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer Wind Speed and Rain Rate Retrievals during the 2010 GRIP Flight Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Sahawneh, Saleem; Farrar, Spencer; Johnson, James; Jones, W. Linwood; Roberts, Jason; Biswas, Sayak; Cecil, Daniel

2014-01-01

Microwave remote sensing observations of hurricanes, from NOAA and USAF hurricane surveillance aircraft, provide vital data for hurricane research and operations, for forecasting the intensity and track of tropical storms. The current operational standard for hurricane wind speed and rain rate measurements is the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a nadir viewing passive microwave airborne remote sensor. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer, HIRAD, will extend the nadir viewing SFMR capability to provide wide swath images of wind speed and rain rate, while flying on a high altitude aircraft. HIRAD was first flown in the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes, GRIP, NASA hurricane field experiment in 2010. This paper reports on geophysical retrieval results and provides hurricane images from GRIP flights. An overview of the HIRAD instrument and the radiative transfer theory based, wind speed/rain rate retrieval algorithm is included. Results are presented for hurricane wind speed and rain rate for Earl and Karl, with comparison to collocated SFMR retrievals and WP3D Fuselage Radar images for validation purposes.

The Effect of Hurricane Lili on the Distribution of Organic Matter in the Inner Louisiana Shelf (Gulf of Mexico, USA)

Science.gov (United States)

Clinton, R.; Goni, M. A.; Gisewhite, R.; Monacci, N.; Gordon, E.; Allison, M.; Kineke, G.

2004-12-01

Suspended particles and surface sediments were collected from the inner shelf of the Louisiana central coast following the passage of Hurricane Lili. The elemental and stable isotopic data of these samples were compared to those determined prior to the hurricane. A week after the storm passage, turbidity levels and total suspended sediment concentrations were not that different from pre-storm values, suggesting most of the suspended sediments must have settled soon after the storm passage. Particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations ranged from 0.1 mg/L to over 2.0 mg/L, with the highest concentrations measured near the seabed and in the inshore portions of the study area. In these locations, suspended particles displayed high POC/Chlorophyll ratios (POC/Chl of 400 to 4,000) and relatively elevated POC/particulate nitrogen ratios (POC/PN of 10 to 14) that indicated their source was locally resuspended seabed sediments. Relatively low POC/Chl (~200) and POC:PN (~7) ratios consistent with significant contributions from phytoplankton were measured only in the surface waters of the most offshore locations. Post hurricane sediment deposition resulted in a storm layer that ranged from 0.5 to 19 cm in thickness. The storm layer was generally composed of silty clays with a coarser, somewhat sandy 1-2 cm basal layer. These storm deposits were characterized by relatively high SA and OC contents. Similarities in the characteristics of the organic matter before and after reinforce the hypothesis that the source of the storm deposits was the finer fraction of locally resuspended seabed sediments, with little evidence for allochthonous land-derived inputs.

Cloud Spirals and Outflow in Tropical Storm Katrina

Science.gov (United States)

2005-01-01

On Tuesday, August 30, 2005, NASA's Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer retrieved cloud-top heights and cloud-tracked wind velocities for Tropical Storm Katrina, as the center of the storm was situated over the Tennessee valley. At this time Katrina was weakening and no longer classified as a hurricane, and would soon become an extratropical depression. Measurements such as these can help atmospheric scientists compare results of computer-generated hurricane simulations with observed conditions, ultimately allowing them to better represent and understand physical processes occurring in hurricanes. Because air currents are influenced by the Coriolis force (caused by the rotation of the Earth), Northern Hemisphere hurricanes are characterized by an inward counterclockwise (cyclonic) rotation towards the center. It is less widely known that, at high altitudes, outward-spreading bands of cloud rotate in a clockwise (anticyclonic) direction. The image on the left shows the retrieved cloud-tracked winds as red arrows superimposed across the natural color view from MISR's nadir (vertical-viewing) camera. Both the counter-clockwise motion for the lower-level storm clouds and the clockwise motion for the upper clouds are apparent in these images. The speeds for the clockwise upper level winds have typical values between 40 and 45 m/s (144-162 km/hr). The low level counterclockwise winds have typical values between 7 and 24 m/s (25-86 km/hr), weakening with distance from the storm center. The image on the right displays the cloud-top height retrievals. Areas where cloud heights could not be retrieved are shown in dark gray. Both the wind velocity vectors and the cloud-top height field were produced by automated computer recognition of displacements in spatial features within successive MISR images acquired at different view angles and at slightly different times. The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer observes the daylit Earth continuously, viewing the entire globe

Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

KAUST Repository

Mandli, Kyle T.; Dawson, Clint N.

2014-01-01

An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

KAUST Repository

Mandli, Kyle T.

2014-03-01

An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Apparent Solar Tornado-Like Prominences

Science.gov (United States)

Panasenco, Olga; Martin, Sara F.; Velli, Marco

2014-02-01

Recent high-resolution observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) have reawakened interest in the old and fascinating phenomenon of solar tornado-like prominences. This class of prominences was first introduced by Pettit ( Astrophys. J. 76, 9, 1932), who studied them over many years. Observations of tornado prominences similar to the ones seen by SDO had already been documented by Secchi ( Le Soleil, 1877). High-resolution and high-cadence multiwavelength data obtained by SDO reveal that the tornado-like appearance of these prominences is mainly an illusion due to projection effects. We discuss two different cases where prominences on the limb might appear to have a tornado-like behavior. One case of apparent vortical motions in prominence spines and barbs arises from the (mostly) 2D counterstreaming plasma motion along the prominence spine and barbs together with oscillations along individual threads. The other case of apparent rotational motion is observed in a prominence cavity and results from the 3D plasma motion along the writhed magnetic fields inside and along the prominence cavity as seen projected on the limb. Thus, the "tornado" impression results either from counterstreaming and oscillations or from the projection on the plane of the sky of plasma motion along magnetic-field lines, rather than from a true vortical motion around an (apparent) vertical or horizontal axis. We discuss the link between tornado-like prominences, filament barbs, and photospheric vortices at their base.

Calculation of particulate dispersion in a design-basis tornadic storm from the General Electric Vallecitos Nuclear Center, Vallecitos, California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pepper, D.W.

1979-11-01

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to calculate ground-level air concentration and deposition (due to precipitation scavenging) after a hypothetical tornado strike at the General Electric Vallecitos Nuclear Center at Vallecitos, California. Plutonium particles less than 20 μm in diameter are assumed to be lifted into the tornadic storm cell by the vortex. The rotational characteristics of the tornadic storm are embedded within the larger mesoscale flow of the storm system. The design-basis translational wind values are based on probabilities associated with existing records of tornado strikes in the vicinity of the plant site. Turbulence exchange coefficients are based on empirical values deduced from experimental data in severe storms and from theoretical assumptions obtained from the literature. The method of moments is used to incorporate subgrid-scale resolution of the concentration within a grid cell volume. This method is a quasi-Lagrangian scheme which minimizes numerical error associated with advection. In all case studies, the effects of updrafts and downdrafts, coupled with scavenging of the particulates by precipitation, account for most of the material being deposited within 20 to 45 km downwind of the plant site. Ground-level isopleths in the x-y plane show that most of the material is deposited behind and slightly to the left of the centerline trajectory of the storm. Approximately 5% of the material is dispersed into the stratosphere and anvil section of the storm

Calculation of particulate dispersion in a design-basis tornadic storm from the General Electric Vallecitos Nuclear Center, Vallecitos, California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pepper, D.W.

1979-11-01

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to calculate ground-level air concentration and deposition (due to precipitation scavenging) after a hypothetical tornado strike at the General Electric Vallecitos Nuclear Center at Vallecitos, California. Plutonium particles less than 20 ..mu..m in diameter are assumed to be lifted into the tornadic storm cell by the vortex. The rotational characteristics of the tornadic storm are embedded within the larger mesoscale flow of the storm system. The design-basis translational wind values are based on probabilities associated with existing records of tornado strikes in the vicinity of the plant site. Turbulence exchange coefficients are based on empirical values deduced from experimental data in severe storms and from theoretical assumptions obtained from the literature. The method of moments is used to incorporate subgrid-scale resolution of the concentration within a grid cell volume. This method is a quasi-Lagrangian scheme which minimizes numerical error associated with advection. In all case studies, the effects of updrafts and downdrafts, coupled with scavenging of the particulates by precipitation, account for most of the material being deposited within 20 to 45 km downwind of the plant site. Ground-level isopleths in the x-y plane show that most of the material is deposited behind and slightly to the left of the centerline trajectory of the storm. Approximately 5% of the material is dispersed into the stratosphere and anvil section of the storm.

A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, James B; Widen, Holly M

2015-01-01

Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA). A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

Derecho Hazards in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Ashley, Walker S.; Mote, Thomas L.

2005-11-01

Convectively generated wind-storms occur over broad temporal and spatial scales; however, the more widespread and longer lived of these windstorms have been given the name "derecho." Utilizing an integrated derecho database, including 377 events from 1986 to 2003, this investigation reveals the amount of insured property losses, fatalities, and injuries associated with these windstorms in the United States. Individual derechos have been responsible for up to 8 fatalities, 204 injuries, forest blow-downs affecting over 3,000 km2 of timber, and estimated insured losses of nearly a $500 million. Findings illustrate that derecho fatalities occur more frequently in vehicles or while boating, while injuries are more likely to happen in vehicles or mobile homes. Both fatalities and injuries are most common outside the region with the highest derecho frequency. An underlying synthesis of both physical and social vulnerabilities is suggested as the cause of the unexpected casualty distribution. In addition, casualty statistics and damage estimates from hurricanes and tornadoes are contrasted with those from derechos to emphasize that derechos can be as hazardous as many tornadoes and hurricanes.

Real-Time Tracking of the Extreme Rainfall of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria using UCI CHRS's iRain System

Science.gov (United States)

Shearer, E. J.; Nguyen, P.; Ombadi, M.; Palacios, T.; Huynh, P.; Furman, D.; Tran, H.; Braithwaite, D.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.; Logan, W. S.

2017-12-01

During the 2017 hurricane season, three major hurricanes-Harvey, Irma, and Maria-devastated the Atlantic coast of the US and the Caribbean Islands. Harvey set the record for the rainiest storm in continental US history, Irma was the longest-lived powerful hurricane ever observed, and Maria was the costliest storm in Puerto Rican history. The recorded maximum precipitation totals for these storms were 65, 16, and 20 inches respectively. These events provided the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) an opportunity to test its global real-time satellite precipitation observation system, iRain, for extreme storm events. The iRain system has been under development through a collaboration between CHRS at the University of California, Irvine (UCI) and UNESCO's International Hydrological Program (IHP). iRain provides near real-time high resolution (0.04°, approx. 4km) global (60°N - 60°S) satellite precipitation data estimated by the PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) algorithm developed by the scientists at CHRS. The user-interactive and web-accessible iRain system allows users to visualize and download real-time global satellite precipitation estimates and track the development and path of the current 50 largest storms globally from data generated by the PERSIANN-CCS algorithm. iRain continuously proves to be an effective tool for measuring real-time precipitation amounts of extreme storms-especially in locations that do not have extensive rain gauge or radar coverage. Such areas include large portions of the world's oceans and over continents such as Africa and Asia. CHRS also created a mobile app version of the system named "iRain UCI", available for iOS and Android devices. During these storms, real-time rainfall data generated by PERSIANN-CCS was consistently comparable to radar and rain gauge data. This presentation evaluates iRain's efficiency as a tool for extreme precipitation monitoring and provides an evaluation of the

Damage to offshore infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico by hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Cruz, A. M.; Krausmann, E.

2009-04-01

The damage inflicted by hurricanes Katrina and Rita to the Gulf-of-Mexico's (GoM) oil and gas production, both onshore and offshore, has shown the proneness of industry to Natech accidents (natural hazard-triggered hazardous-materials releases). In order to contribute towards a better understanding of Natech events, we assessed the damage to and hazardous-materials releases from offshore oil and natural-gas platforms and pipelines induced by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Data was obtained through a review of published literature and interviews with government officials and industry representatives from the affected region. We also reviewed over 60,000 records of reported hazardous-materials releases from the National Response Center's (NRC) database to identify and analyze the hazardous-materials releases directly attributed to offshore oil and gas platforms and pipelines affected by the two hurricanes. Our results show that hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed at least 113 platforms, and severely damaged at least 53 others. Sixty percent of the facilities destroyed were built 30 years ago or more prior to the adoption of the more stringent design standards that went into effect after 1977. The storms also destroyed 5 drilling rigs and severely damaged 19 mobile offshore drilling units (MODUs). Some 19 MODUs lost their moorings and became adrift during the storms which not only posed a danger to existing facilities but the dragging anchors also damaged pipelines and other infrastructure. Structural damage to platforms included toppling of sections, and tilting or leaning of platforms. Possible causes for failure of structural and non-structural components of platforms included loading caused by wave inundation of the deck. Failure of rigs attached to platforms was also observed resulting in significant damage to the platform or adjacent infrastructure, as well as damage to equipment, living quarters and helipads. The failures are attributable to tie-down components

Hurricane Ike Deposits on the Bolivar Peninsula, Galveston Bay, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Cynthia A.; Wilkinson, M. J.; Eppler, Dean

2011-01-01

In September 2008, Hurricane Ike made landfall on Galveston Bay, close to the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). The storm flooded much of the area with a storm surge ranging from 11 -20 feet. The Bolivar peninsula, the southeastern coast of Galveston Bay, experienced the brunt of the surge. Several agencies collected excellent imagery baselines before the storm and complementary data a few days afterward that helped define the impacts of the storm. In April of 2011, a team of scientists and astronauts from JSC conducted field mapping exercises along the Bolivar Peninsula, the section of the Galveston Bay coast most impacted by the storm. Astronauts routinely observe and document coastal changes from orbit aboard the International Space Station. As part of their basic Earth Science training, scientists at the Johnson Space Center take astronauts out for field mapping exercises so that they can better recognize and understand features and processes that they will later observe from the International Space Station. Using pre -storm baseline images of the Bolivar Peninsula near Rollover Pass and Gilchrist (NOAA/Google Earth Imagery and USGS aerial imagery and lidar data), the astronauts mapped current coastline positions at defined locations, and related their findings to specific coastal characteristics, including channel, jetties, and other developments. In addition to mapping, we dug trenches along both the Gulf of Mexico coast as well as the Galveston Bay coast of the Bolivar peninsula to determine the depth of the scouring from the storm on the Gulf side, and the amount of deposition of the storm surge deposits on the Bay side of the peninsula. The storm signature was easy to identify by sharp sediment transitions and, in the case of storm deposits, a layer of storm debris (roof shingles, PVC pipes, etc) and black, organic rich layers containing buried sea grasses in areas that were marshes before the storm. The amount of deposition was generally about 20 -25 cm

Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model. Pt. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bengtsson, L.; Botzet, M.; Esch, M.

1994-01-01

A very high resolution atmospheric general circulation model, T106-L19, has been used for the simulation of hurricanes in a multi-year numerical experiment. Individual storms as well as their geographical and seasonal distribution agree remarkably well with observations. In spite of the fact that only the thermal and dynamical structure of the storms have been used as criteria of their identification, practically all of them occur in areas where the sea surface temperature is higher or equal to 26 C. There are some variations from year to year in the number of storms in spite of the fact that there are no interannual variations in the SST pattern. It is found that the number of storms in particular areas depend on the intensity of the Hadley-Walker cell. The result is clearly resolution dependant. At lower horizonal resolution, T42, for example, the intensity of the storms is significantly reduced and their overall structure is less realistic, including their vertical form and extention. (orig.)

High Temporal Resolution Tropospheric Wind Profile Observations at NASA Kennedy Space Center During Hurricane Irma

Science.gov (United States)

Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.; Huddleston, Lisa; Brauer, Thomas; Wilfong, Timothy

2018-01-01

The NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) operates a 48-MHz Tropospheric/Stratospheric Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (TDRWP) on a continual basis generating wind profiles between 2-19 km in the support of space launch vehicle operations. A benefit of the continual operability of the system is the ability to provide unique observations of severe weather events such as hurricanes. Over the past two Atlantic Hurricane seasons the TDRWP has made high temporal resolution wind profile observations of Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Hurricane Irma was responsible for power outages to approximately 2/3 of Florida's population during its movement over the state(Stein,2017). An overview of the TDRWP system configuration, brief summary of Hurricanes Irma and Matthew storm track in proximity to KSC, characteristics of the tropospheric wind observations from the TDRWP during both events, and discussion of the dissemination of TDRWP data during the event will be presented.

A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas H Jagger

Full Text Available Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA. A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

Three scales of motions associated with tornadoes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forbes, G.S.

1978-03-01

This dissertation explores three scales of motion commonly associated with tornadoes, and the interaction of these scales: the tornado cyclone, the tornado, and the suction vortex. The goal of the research is to specify in detail the character and interaction of these scales of motion to explain tornadic phenomena

Solar Magnetized Tornadoes: Rotational Motion in a Tornado-like Prominence

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Yang; Gömöry, Peter; Veronig, Astrid; Temmer, Manuela; Wang, Tongjiang; Vanninathan, Kamalam; Gan, Weiqun; Li, YouPing

2014-04-01

Su et al. proposed a new explanation for filament formation and eruption, where filament barbs are rotating magnetic structures driven by underlying vortices on the surface. Such structures have been noticed as tornado-like prominences when they appear above the limb. They may play a key role as the source of plasma and twist in filaments. However, no observations have successfully distinguished rotational motion of the magnetic structures in tornado-like prominences from other motions such as oscillation and counter-streaming plasma flows. Here we report evidence of rotational motions in a tornado-like prominence. The spectroscopic observations in two coronal lines were obtained from a specifically designed Hinode/EIS observing program. The data revealed the existence of both cold and million-degree-hot plasma in the prominence leg, supporting the so-called prominence-corona transition region. The opposite velocities at the two sides of the prominence and their persistent time evolution, together with the periodic motions evident in SDO/AIA dark structures, indicate a rotational motion of both cold and hot plasma with a speed of ~5 km s-1.

Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Fita

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Tropical-like storms on the Mediterranean Sea are occasionally observed on satellite images, often with a clear eye surrounded by an axysimmetric cloud structure. These storms sometimes attain hurricane intensity and can severely affect coastal lands. A deep, cut-off, cold-core low is usually observed at mid-upper tropospheric levels in association with the development of these tropical-like systems. In this study we attempt to apply some tools previously used in studies of tropical hurricanes to characterise the environments in which seven known Mediterranean events developed. In particular, an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model is applied to simulate the tropical-like storm genesis and evolution. Results are compared to surface observations when landfall occurred and with satellite microwave derived wind speed measurements over the sea. Finally, sensitivities of the numerical simulations to different factors (e.g. sea surface temperature, vertical humidity profile and size of the initial precursor of the storm are examined.

SOLAR MAGNETIZED 'TORNADOES': RELATION TO FILAMENTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Su Yang; Veronig, Astrid; Temmer, Manuela [IGAM-Kanzelhoehe Observatory, Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Universitaetsplatz 5, A-8010 Graz (Austria); Wang Tongjiang [Department of Physics, Catholic University of America, Washington, DC 20064 (United States); Gan Weiqun, E-mail: yang.su@uni-graz.at [Key Laboratory of Dark Matter and Space Astronomy, Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China)

2012-09-10

Solar magnetized 'tornadoes', a phenomenon discovered in the solar atmosphere, appear as tornado-like structures in the corona but are rooted in the photosphere. Like other solar phenomena, solar tornadoes are a feature of magnetized plasma and therefore differ distinctly from terrestrial tornadoes. Here we report the first analysis of solar 'tornadoes' (two papers which focused on different aspects of solar tornadoes were published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters and Nature, respectively, during the revision of this Letter). A detailed case study of two events indicates that they are rotating vertical magnetic structures probably driven by underlying vortex flows in the photosphere. They usually exist as a group and are related to filaments/prominences, another important solar phenomenon whose formation and eruption are still mysteries. Solar tornadoes may play a distinct role in the supply of mass and twists to filaments. These findings could lead to a new explanation of filament formation and eruption.

Changing volatility of U.S. annual tornado reports

Science.gov (United States)

Tippett, Michael K.

2014-10-01

United States (U.S.) tornado activity results in substantial loss of life and property damage each year. A simple measure of the U.S. tornado climatology is the average number of tornadoes per year. However, even this statistic is elusive because of nonstationary behavior due in large part to changes in reporting practices. Differencing of the annual report data results in a quantity without mean trends and whose standard deviation we denote as volatility, since it is an indication of the likely year-to-year variation in the number of tornadoes reported. While volatility changes detected prior to 2000 can be associated with known reporting practice changes, an increase in volatility in the 2000s across intensity levels cannot. A volatility increase is also seen in a tornado environment index which measures the favorability of atmospheric conditions to tornado activity, providing evidence that the recent increase in tornado report volatility is related to the physical environment.

Dispersion of small particles in a tornado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pepper, D.W.

1975-05-01

Based on 22 years of tornado statistics for South Carolina and Georgia, the probability of a tornado of Class F3 or greater striking a point at the Savannah River Plant is calculated to be approximately 14 x 10 -5 per year. These statistics show that Class F3 tornados (0.56-psi pressure drop and winds of 158 to 206 mph), are the most frequently occurring but cause only 23 percent of the damage compared with all classes of tornadoes. F4 tornadoes (1.10-psi pressure drop and winds of 207 to 260 mph) constitute only 20 percent of the total, but cause 63 percent of the damage. A Gaussian diffusion model is used to calculate the ground level concentration (ratio of concentration to source mass chi/Q) as a function of distance downwind should a tornado strike a point within the Savannah River Plant (SRP). The particles released to the atmosphere are assumed to be 1 to 3-μm diameter. For the calculations, two cases of possible small particle pickup are considered. In Case I a unit source of small particles is assumed to be injected into the tornado core and transported into the thunderstorm. In Case II, the cluster of particles is assumed to exit the side of the tornado core below the thunderstorm cloud. Several different stabilization heights within the thunderstorm, different horizontal wind speeds, and different turbulence dissipation rates are assumed for the calculations. (U.S.)

Coastal Sediment Distribution Patterns Following Category 5 Hurricanes (Irma and Maria): Pre and Post Hurricane High Resolution Multibeam Surveys of Eastern St. John, US Virgin Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Browning, T. N.; Sawyer, D. E.; Russell, P.

2017-12-01

In August of 2017 we collected high resolution multibeam data of the seafloor in a large embayment in eastern St. John, US Virgin Islands (USVI). One month later, the eyewall of Category 5 Hurricane Irma directly hit St. John as one of the largest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic Ocean. A week later, Category 5 Hurricane Maria passed over St. John. While the full extent of the impacts are still being assessed, the island experienced a severe loss of vegetation, infrastructure, buildings, roads, and boats. We mobilized less than two months afterward to conduct a repeat survey of the same area on St. John. We then compared these data to document and quantify the sediment influx and movement that occurred in coastal embayments as a result of Hurricanes Irma and Maria. The preliminary result of the intense rain, wind, and storm surge likely yields an event deposit that can be mapped and volumetrically quantified in the bays of eastern St. John. The results of this study allow for a detailed understanding of the post-hurricane pulse of sediment that enters the marine environment, the sediment flux seaward, and the morphological changes to the bay floor.

ARE GIANT TORNADOES THE LEGS OF SOLAR PROMINENCES?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wedemeyer, Sven; Scullion, Eamon; Rouppe van der Voort, Luc; Bosnjak, Antonija [Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1029 Blindern, NO-0315 Oslo (Norway); Antolin, Patrick, E-mail: sven.wedemeyer@astro.uio.no [Centre for Mathematical Plasma Astrophysics, Department of Mathematics, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200B, bus 2400, B-3001 Leuven (Belgium)

2013-09-10

Observations in the 171 A channel of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly of the space-borne Solar Dynamics Observatory show tornado-like features in the atmosphere of the Sun. These giant tornadoes appear as dark, elongated, and apparently rotating structures in front of a brighter background. This phenomenon is thought to be produced by rotating magnetic field structures that extend throughout the atmosphere. We characterize giant tornadoes through a statistical analysis of properties such as spatial distribution, lifetimes, and sizes. A total number of 201 giant tornadoes are detected in a period of 25 days, suggesting that, on average, about 30 events are present across the whole Sun at a time close to solar maximum. Most tornadoes appear in groups and seem to form the legs of prominences, thus serving as plasma sources/sinks. Additional H{alpha} observations with the Swedish 1 m Solar Telescope imply that giant tornadoes rotate as a structure, although they clearly exhibit a thread-like structure. We observe tornado groups that grow prior to the eruption of the connected prominence. The rotation of the tornadoes may progressively twist the magnetic structure of the prominence until it becomes unstable and erupts. Finally, we investigate the potential relation of giant tornadoes to other phenomena, which may also be produced by rotating magnetic field structures. A comparison to cyclones, magnetic tornadoes, and spicules implies that such events are more abundant and short-lived the smaller they are. This comparison might help to construct a power law for the effective atmospheric heating contribution as a function of spatial scale.

ARE GIANT TORNADOES THE LEGS OF SOLAR PROMINENCES?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wedemeyer, Sven; Scullion, Eamon; Rouppe van der Voort, Luc; Bosnjak, Antonija; Antolin, Patrick

2013-01-01

Observations in the 171 Å channel of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly of the space-borne Solar Dynamics Observatory show tornado-like features in the atmosphere of the Sun. These giant tornadoes appear as dark, elongated, and apparently rotating structures in front of a brighter background. This phenomenon is thought to be produced by rotating magnetic field structures that extend throughout the atmosphere. We characterize giant tornadoes through a statistical analysis of properties such as spatial distribution, lifetimes, and sizes. A total number of 201 giant tornadoes are detected in a period of 25 days, suggesting that, on average, about 30 events are present across the whole Sun at a time close to solar maximum. Most tornadoes appear in groups and seem to form the legs of prominences, thus serving as plasma sources/sinks. Additional Hα observations with the Swedish 1 m Solar Telescope imply that giant tornadoes rotate as a structure, although they clearly exhibit a thread-like structure. We observe tornado groups that grow prior to the eruption of the connected prominence. The rotation of the tornadoes may progressively twist the magnetic structure of the prominence until it becomes unstable and erupts. Finally, we investigate the potential relation of giant tornadoes to other phenomena, which may also be produced by rotating magnetic field structures. A comparison to cyclones, magnetic tornadoes, and spicules implies that such events are more abundant and short-lived the smaller they are. This comparison might help to construct a power law for the effective atmospheric heating contribution as a function of spatial scale

Methods for tornado frequency calculation of nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Haibin; Li Lin

2012-01-01

In order to take probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plant tornado attack event, a method to calculate tornado frequency of nuclear power plant is introduced based on HAD 101/10 and NUREG/CR-4839 references. This method can consider history tornado frequency of the plant area, construction dimension, intensity various along with tornado path and area distribution and so on and calculate the frequency of different scale tornado. (authors)

Hurricane Public Health Research Center at Louisiana State University a Case of Academia Being Prepared

Science.gov (United States)

van Heerden, I. L.

2006-12-01

and chemicals in these standing flood waters would set the stage for massive disease outbreaks and prolonged chemical exposure. Before Katrina, population evacuation behavior had been determined, computer models could be used to predict storm surge flooding, government databases and GIS technology allowed documentation of at-risk areas, probable chemical and sewerage release sites had been mapped, tropical disease experts and social scientists had determined possible public health impacts; that injured and displaced animal pets and wild animals would be a major problem had been identified; and, an interactive GIS database was available for utilization in all aspects of the assessment and remediation post landfall. The value of this project has been many-fold. First, before Katrina it had a positive impact on emergency preparedness in the state of Louisiana. Second, during the hurricane Katrina catastrophe the project offered a major service to the state as the various data sets and research outputs were extensively used throughout the flooding thus reducing deaths, disease, pain, and suffering. Third, the model of academia aiding in disaster science and management is being exported nationally and internationally. Finally, our research results are applicable to other complex disasters such as earthquakes, tornadoes, chemical spills or terrorism.

Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, Harold E; Carbin, Gregory W; Marsh, Patrick T

2014-10-17

Whether or not climate change has had an impact on the occurrence of tornadoes in the United States has become a question of high public and scientific interest, but changes in how tornadoes are reported have made it difficult to answer it convincingly. We show that, excluding the weakest tornadoes, the mean annual number of tornadoes has remained relatively constant, but their variability of occurrence has increased since the 1970s. This is due to a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes combined with an increase in days with many tornadoes, leading to greater variability on annual and monthly time scales and changes in the timing of the start of the tornado season. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Simulating Storm Surge Impacts with a Coupled Atmosphere-Inundation Model with Varying Meteorological Forcing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandra N. Ramos Valle

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Storm surge events have the potential to cause devastating damage to coastal communities. The magnitude of their impacts highlights the need for increased accuracy and real-time forecasting and predictability of storm surge. In this study, we assess two meteorological forcing configurations to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy, and ultimately support the improvement of storm surge forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is coupled to the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC to determine water elevations. We perform four coupled simulations and compare storm surge estimates resulting from the use of a parametric vortex model and a full-physics atmospheric model. One simulation is forced with track-based meteorological data calculated from WRF, while three simulations are forced with the full wind and pressure field outputs from WRF simulations of varying resolutions. Experiments were compared to an ADCIRC simulation forced by National Hurricane Center best track data, as well as to station observations. Our results indicated that given accurate meteorological best track data, a parametric vortex model can accurately forecast maximum water elevations, improving upon the use of a full-physics coupled atmospheric-surge model. In the absence of a best track, atmospheric forcing in the form of full wind and pressure field from a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation prove reliable for storm surge forecasting.

Risk factors for tornado injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Eidson, M; Lybarger, J A; Parsons, J E; MacCormack, J N; Freeman, J I

1990-12-01

Tornadoes in North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984 caused 252 people to be injured seriously enough to require hospitalization and 59 to be killed. To evaluate risk factors, we gathered information on 238 (94%) of those hospitalized and 46 (78%) of those killed. Those hospitalized or deceased had statistically significantly more deep cuts, concussions, unconsciousness and broken bones than those with them at the time of the tornado who were not hospitalized or killed. People living in mobile homes were more likely to be hospitalized or die than people occupying conventional houses. Other risk factors for hospitalization or death included advanced age (60+ years), no physical protection (not having been covered with a blanket or other object), having been struck by broken window glass or other falling objects, home lifted off its foundation, collapsed ceiling or floor, or walls blown away. More awareness of the tornado risk before it strikes and better adherence to tornado protection guidelines could reduce injuries and deaths in the future.

Impact of Hurricane Andrew on FPL generation facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brannen, W.F.; Adams, R.L.

1993-01-01

In the pre-dawn hours of August 25, 1992, Hurricane Andrew made landfall in southern Dade County, Florida. The storm approached directly from the east and moved rapidly across the State and into the Gulf of Mexico. Andrew's intense winds caused unprecedented devastation to structures and facilities in its path. Not surprisingly, Florida Power and Light's (FPL) generation, transmission and distribution facilities in south Florida also suffered extensive damage. Two of FPL's electrical generating sites were located in the direct path of the storm and received its full brunt. This paper presents a review of the damage sustained by those plants, an overview of the unique recovery challenges encountered and a summary of the lessons learned from this experience

Integration of coastal inundation modeling from storm tides to individual waves

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ning; Roeber, Volker; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Heitmann, Troy W.; Bai, Yefei; Cheung, Kwok Fai

2014-11-01

Modeling of storm-induced coastal inundation has primarily focused on the surge generated by atmospheric pressure and surface winds with phase-averaged effects of the waves as setup. Through an interoperable model package, we investigate the role of phase-resolving wave processes in simulation of coastal flood hazards. A spectral ocean wave model describes generation and propagation of storm waves from deep to intermediate water, while a non-hydrostatic storm-tide model has the option to couple with a spectral coastal wave model for computation of phase-averaged processes in a near-shore region. The ocean wave and storm-tide models can alternatively provide the wave spectrum and the surface elevation as the boundary and initial conditions for a nested Boussinesq model. Additional surface-gradient terms in the Boussinesq equations maintain the quasi-steady, non-uniform storm tide for modeling of phase-resolving surf and swash-zone processes as well as combined tide, surge, and wave inundation. The two nesting schemes are demonstrated through a case study of Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1992. With input from a parametric hurricane model and global reanalysis and tidal datasets, the two approaches produce comparable significant wave heights and phase-averaged surface elevations in the surf zone. The nesting of the Boussinesq model provides a seamless approach to augment the inundation due to the individual waves in matching the recorded debris line along the coast.

Short-term hurricane impacts on a neotropical community of marked birds and implications for early-stage community resilience.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Andrew B; Winker, Kevin

2010-11-30

Populations in fragmented ecosystems risk extirpation through natural disasters, which must be endured rather than avoided. Managing communities for resilience is thus critical, but details are sketchy about the capacity for resilience and its associated properties in vertebrate communities. We studied short-term resilience in a community of individually marked birds, following this community through the catastrophic destruction of its forest habitat by Hurricane Iris in Belize, Central America. We sampled for 58 d immediately before the storm, 28 d beginning 11 d after Hurricane Iris, and for 69 d approximately one year later. Our data showed that the initial capacity for resilience was strong. Many banded individuals remained after the storm, although lower post-hurricane recapture rates revealed increased turnover among individuals. Changes occurred in community dynamics and in abundances among species and guilds. Survivors and immigrants both were critical components of resilience, but in a heterogeneous, species-specific manner. Delayed effects, including higher fat storage and increased species losses, were evident one year later.

Tropical North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interactions synchronize forest carbon losses from hurricanes and Amazon fires

OpenAIRE

Chen, Y; Randerson, JT; Morton, DC

2015-01-01

©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. We describe a climate mode synchronizing forest carbon losses from North and South America by analyzing time series of tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), landfall hurricanes and tropical storms, and Amazon fires during 1995-2013. Years with anomalously high tropical North Atlantic SSTs during March-June were often followed by a more active hurricane season and a larger number of satellite-detected fires in the south...

Geomorphic and ecological effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on coastal Louisiana marsh communities

Science.gov (United States)

Piazza, Sarai C.; Steyer, Gregory D.; Cretini, Kari F.; Sasser, Charles E.; Visser, Jenneke M.; Holm, Guerry O.; Sharp, Leigh A.; Evers, D. Elaine; Meriwether, John R.

2011-01-01

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita made landfall in 2005, subjecting the coastal marsh communities of Louisiana to various degrees of exposure. We collected data after the storms at 30 sites within fresh (12), brackish/intermediate (12), and saline (6) marshes to document the effects of saltwater storm surge and sedimentation on marsh community dynamics. The 30 sites were comprised of 15 pairs. Most pairs contained one site where data collection occurred historically (that is, prestorms) and one Coastwide Reference Monitoring System site. Data were collected from spring 2006 to fall 2007 on vegetative species composition, percentage of vegetation cover, aboveground and belowground biomass, and canopy reflectance, along with discrete porewater salinity, hourly surface-water salinity, and water level. Where available, historical data acquired before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were used to compare conditions and changes in ecological trajectories before and after the hurricanes. Sites experiencing direct and indirect hurricane influences (referred to in this report as levels of influence) were also identified, and the effects of hurricane influence were tested on vegetation and porewater data. Within fresh marshes, porewater salinity was greater in directly impacted areas, and this heightened salinity was reflected in decreased aboveground and belowground biomass and increased cover of disturbance species in the directly impacted sites. At the brackish/intermediate marsh sites, vegetation variables and porewater salinity were similar in directly and indirectly impacted areas, but porewater salinity was higher than expected throughout the study. Interestingly, directly impacted saline marsh sites had lower porewater salinity than indirectly impacted sites, but aboveground biomass was greater at the directly impacted sites. Because of the variable and site-specific nature of hurricane influences, we present case studies to help define postdisturbance baseline conditions in

Effect of Hurricane Andrew on the Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station from August 20--30, 1992. [Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hebdon, F.J. [Institute of Nuclear Power Operations, Atlanta, GA (United States)

1993-03-01

On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew, a Category 4 hurricane, struck the Turkey Point Electrical Generating Station with sustained winds of 145 mph (233 km/h). This is the report of the team that the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) jointly sponsored (1) to review the damage that the hurricane caused the nuclear units and the utility`s actions to prepare for the storm and recover from it, and (2) to compile lessons that might benefit other nuclear reactor facilities.

Flood Inundation Mapping and Emergency Operations during Hurricane Harvey

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, N. Z.; Cotter, J.; Gao, S.; Bedient, P. B.; Yung, A.; Penland, C.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey struck the Gulf Coast as Category 4 on August 25, 2017 with devastating and life-threatening floods in Texas. Harris County received up to 49 inches of rainfall over a 5-day period and experienced flooding level and impacts beyond any previous storm in Houston's history. The depth-duration-frequency analysis reveals that the areal average rainfall for Brays Bayou surpasses the 500-year rainfall in both 24 and 48 hours. To cope with this unprecedented event, the researchers at the University of Texas at Arlington and Rice University worked closely with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the National Weather Service (NWS), the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM), Walter P. Moore and Associates, Inc. and Halff Associates, to conduct a series of meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to delineate flood inundation maps. Up to eight major watersheds in Harris County were delineated based the available QPE data from WGRFC. The inundation map over Brays Bayou with their impacts from Hurricane Harvey was delineated in comparison with those of 100-, 500-year, and Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) design storms. This presentation will provide insights for both engineers and planners to re-evaluate the existing flood infrastructure and policy, which will help build Houston stronger for future extreme storms. The collaborative effort among the federal, academic, and private entities clearly demonstrates an effective approach for flood inundation mapping initiatives for the nation.

Self-organization in the tornado: the new approach in the tornado description

OpenAIRE

Bystrai, G. P.; Lykov, I. A

2012-01-01

For the mathematical modeling of highly non-equilibrium and nonlinear processes in a tornado in this paper a new approach based on nonlinear equations of momentum transfer with function of sources and sinks is suggested. In constructing the model thermodynamic description is used, which is not entered before and allows discovering new principles of self-organization in a tornado. This approach gives fairly consistent physical results. This is an attempt to answer some fundamental questions co...

Hurricane disturbance benefits nesting American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus)

Science.gov (United States)

Simons, Theodore R.; Schulte, Shiloh A.

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems are under increasing pressure from human activity, introduced species, sea level rise, and storm activity. Hurricanes are a powerful destructive force, but can also renew coastal habitats. In 2003, Hurricane Isabel altered the barrier islands of North Carolina, flattening dunes and creating sand flats. American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) are large shorebirds that inhabit the coastal zone throughout the year. Alternative survival models were evaluated for 699 American Oystercatcher nests on North Core Banks and South Core Banks, North Carolina, USA, from 1999–2007. Nest survival on North Core Banks increased from 0.170 (SE = 0.002) to 0.772 (SE = 0.090) after the hurricane, with a carry-over effect lasting 2 years. A simple year effects model described nest survival on South Core Banks. Habitat had no effect on survival except when the overall rate of nest survival was at intermediate levels (0.300–0.600), when nests on open flats survived at a higher rate (0.600; SE = 0.112) than nests in dune habitat (0.243; SE = 0.094). Predator activity declined on North Core Banks after the hurricane and corresponded with an increase in nest survival. Periodic years with elevated nest survival may offset low annual productivity and contribute to the stability of American Oystercatcher populations.

Calculation of particulate dispersion in a design-basis tornadic storm from the Atomics International Nuclear Material Development Facility, Santa Susana, California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pepper, D.W.

1980-07-01

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to calculate ground-level air concentration and deposition (due to precipitation scavenging) after a hypothetical tornado strike at the Atomics International Nuclear Material Development Facility at Santa Susana, California. Plutonium particles less than 20 ..mu..m in diameter are assumed to be lifted into the tornadic storm cell by the vortex. The rotational characteristics of the tornadic storm are embedded within the larger mesoscale flow of the storm system. The design-basis translational wind values are based on probabilities associated with existing records of tornado strikes in the vicinity of the plant site. Turbulence exchange coefficients are based on empirical values deduced from experimental data in severe storms and from theoretical assumptions obtained from the literature. The method of moments is used to incorporate subgrid-scale resolution of the concentration within a grid cell volume. This method is a quasi-Lagrangian scheme which minimizes numerical error associated with advection. In all case studies, the effects of updrafts and downdrafts, coupled with scavenging of the particulates by precipitation, account for most of the material being deposited within 50 km downwind of the plant site. Ground-level isopleths in the x-y plane show that most of the material is deposited behind and slightly to the left of the centerline trajectory of the storm. Approximately 5% of the material is dispersed into the stratosphere and anvil section of the storm.

Calculation of particulate dispersion in a design-basis tornadic storm from the Atomics International Nuclear Material Development Facility, Santa Susana, California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pepper, D.W.

1980-07-01

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to calculate ground-level air concentration and deposition (due to precipitation scavenging) after a hypothetical tornado strike at the Atomics International Nuclear Material Development Facility at Santa Susana, California. Plutonium particles less than 20 μm in diameter are assumed to be lifted into the tornadic storm cell by the vortex. The rotational characteristics of the tornadic storm are embedded within the larger mesoscale flow of the storm system. The design-basis translational wind values are based on probabilities associated with existing records of tornado strikes in the vicinity of the plant site. Turbulence exchange coefficients are based on empirical values deduced from experimental data in severe storms and from theoretical assumptions obtained from the literature. The method of moments is used to incorporate subgrid-scale resolution of the concentration within a grid cell volume. This method is a quasi-Lagrangian scheme which minimizes numerical error associated with advection. In all case studies, the effects of updrafts and downdrafts, coupled with scavenging of the particulates by precipitation, account for most of the material being deposited within 50 km downwind of the plant site. Ground-level isopleths in the x-y plane show that most of the material is deposited behind and slightly to the left of the centerline trajectory of the storm. Approximately 5% of the material is dispersed into the stratosphere and anvil section of the storm

Effect of severe hurricanes on biorock coral reef restoration projects in Grand Turk, Turks and Caicos Islands.

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Lucy; Perez, Fernando; Hibbert, Marlon; Clerveaux, Luc; Johnson, Jodi; Goreau, Thomas J

2010-10-01

Artificial reefs are often discouraged in shallow waters over concerns of storm damage to structures and surrounding habitat. Biorock coral reef restoration projects were initiated in waters around 5 m deep in Grand Turk, at Oasis (October 2006) and at Governor's Beach (November 2007). Hemi-cylindrical steel modules, 6m long were used, four modules at Oasis and six at Governor's Beach. Each project has over 1200 corals transplanted from sites with high sedimentation damage, and are regularly monitored for coral growth, mortality and fish populations. Corals show immediate growth over wires used to attach corals. Growth has been measured from photographs using a software program and is faster at Governor's Beach. After hurricanes Hanna and Ike (September 2008) the Governor's Beach structure was fully standing since the waves passed straight through with little damage, the Oasis structures which were tie-wired rather than welded had one module collapse (since been replaced with a new, welded structure). Hurricane Ike was the strongest hurricane on record to hit Grand Turk. Most cables were replaced following the hurricanes due to damage from debris and high wave action. The projects lost about a third of the corals due to hurricanes. Most of those lost had only been wired a few days before and had not yet attached themselves firmly. These projects have regenerated corals and fish populations in areas of barren sand or bedrock and are now attractive to snorkelers. High coral survival and low structural damage after hurricanes indicate that Biorock reef restoration can be effective in storm-impacted areas.

Sedimentary and Vegetative Impacts of Hurricane Irma to Coastal Wetland Ecosystems across Southwest Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Moyer, R. P.; Khan, N.; Radabaugh, K.; Engelhart, S. E.; Smoak, J. M.; Horton, B.; Rosenheim, B. E.; Kemp, A.; Chappel, A. R.; Schafer, C.; Jacobs, J. A.; Dontis, E. E.; Lynch, J.; Joyse, K.; Walker, J. S.; Halavik, B. T.; Bownik, M.

2017-12-01

Since 2014, our collaborative group has been working in coastal marshes and mangroves across Southwest Florida, including Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, Ten Thousand Islands, Biscayne Bay, and the lower Florida Keys. All existing field sites were located within 50 km of Hurricane Irma's eye path, with a few sites in the Lower Florida Keys and Naples/Ten Thousand Islands region suffering direct eyewall hits. As a result, we have been conducting storm-impact and damage assessments at these locations with the primary goal of understanding how major hurricanes contribute to and/or modify the sedimentary record of mangroves and salt marshes. We have also assessed changes to the vegetative structure of the mangrove forests at each site. Preliminary findings indicate a reduction in mangrove canopy cover from 70-90% pre-storm, to 30-50% post-Irma, and a reduction in tree height of approximately 1.2 m. Sedimentary deposits consisting of fine carbonate mud up to 12 cm thick were imported into the mangroves of the lower Florida Keys, Biscayne Bay, and the Ten Thousand Islands. Import of siliciclastic mud up to 5 cm thick was observed in Charlotte Harbor. In addition to fine mud, all sites had imported tidal wrack consisting of a mixed seagrass and mangrove leaf litter, with some deposits as thick as 6 cm. In areas with newly opened canopy, a microbial layer was coating the surface of the imported wrack layer. Overwash and shoreline erosion were also documented at two sites in the lower Keys and Biscayne Bay, and will be monitored for change and recovery over the next few years. Because active research was being conducted, a wealth of pre-storm data exists, thus these locations are uniquely positioned to quantify hurricane impacts to the sedimentary record and standing biomass across a wide geographic area. Due to changes in intensity along the storm path, direct comparisons of damage metrics can be made to environmental setting, wind speed, storm surge, and distance to eyewall.

Tornado-borne missile speeds. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simiu, E.; Cordes, M.

1976-04-01

An investigation of the question of tornado-borne missile speeds was carried out, with a view to identify pertinent areas of uncertainty and to estimate credible tornado-borne missile speeds - within the limitations inherent in the present state of the art. The investigation consists of two parts: (1) a study in which a rational model for the missile motion is proposed, and numerical experiments are carried out corresponding to various assumptions on the initial conditions of the missile motion, the structure of the tornado flow, and the aerodynamic properties of the missile; (2) a theoretical and experimental study of tornado-borne missile aerodynamics, conducted by Colorado State Univ. (CSU) to be covered in a separate report by CSU. In the present report, the factors affecting missile motion and their influence upon such motion are examined

Satellite Assessment of Bio-Optical Properties of Northern Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Merritt Tuel

2008-07-01

Full Text Available The impacts of major tropical storms events on coastal waters include sediment resuspension, intense water column mixing, and increased delivery of terrestrial materials into coastal waters. We examined satellite imagery acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS ocean color sensor aboard the Aqua spacecraft following two major hurricane events: Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall on 29 August 2005, and Hurricane Rita, which made landfall on 24 September. MODIS Aqua true color imagery revealed high turbidity levels in shelf waters immediately following the storms indicative of intense resuspension. However, imagery following the landfall of Katrina showed relatively rapid return of shelf water mass properties to pre-storm conditions. Indeed, MODIS Aqua-derived estimates of diffuse attenuation at 490 nm (K_490 and chlorophyll (chlor_a from mid-August prior to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina were comparable to those observed in mid-September following the storm. Regions of elevated K_490 and chlor_a were evident in offshore waters and appeared to be associated with cyclonic circulation (cold-core eddies identified on the basis of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA. Imagery acquired shortly after Hurricane Rita made landfall showed increased water column turbidity extending over a large area of the shelf off Louisiana and Texas, consistent with intense resuspension and sediment disturbance. An interannual comparison of satellite-derived estimates of K_490 for late September and early October revealed relatively lower levels in 2005, compared to the mean for the prior three years, in the vicinity of the Mississippi River birdfoot delta. In contrast, levels above the previous three year mean were observed off Texas and Louisiana 7-10 d after the passage of Rita. The lower values of K_490 near the delta could be attributed to relatively low river discharge during the preceding months of the 2005 season. The elevated levels

SOLAR MAGNETIZED TORNADOES: ROTATIONAL MOTION IN A TORNADO-LIKE PROMINENCE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Su, Yang; Veronig, Astrid; Temmer, Manuela; Vanninathan, Kamalam [IGAM-Kanzelhöhe Observatory, Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Universitätsplatz 5, A-8010 Graz (Austria); Gömöry, Peter [Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, SK-05960 Tatranská Lomnica (Slovakia); Wang, Tongjiang [Department of Physics, the Catholic University of America, Washington, DC 20064 (United States); Gan, Weiqun; Li, YouPing, E-mail: yang.su@uni-graz.at [Key Laboratory of Dark Matter and Space Astronomy, Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China)

2014-04-10

Su et al. proposed a new explanation for filament formation and eruption, where filament barbs are rotating magnetic structures driven by underlying vortices on the surface. Such structures have been noticed as tornado-like prominences when they appear above the limb. They may play a key role as the source of plasma and twist in filaments. However, no observations have successfully distinguished rotational motion of the magnetic structures in tornado-like prominences from other motions such as oscillation and counter-streaming plasma flows. Here we report evidence of rotational motions in a tornado-like prominence. The spectroscopic observations in two coronal lines were obtained from a specifically designed Hinode/EIS observing program. The data revealed the existence of both cold and million-degree-hot plasma in the prominence leg, supporting the so-called prominence-corona transition region. The opposite velocities at the two sides of the prominence and their persistent time evolution, together with the periodic motions evident in SDO/AIA dark structures, indicate a rotational motion of both cold and hot plasma with a speed of ∼5 km s{sup –1}.

SOLAR MAGNETIZED TORNADOES: ROTATIONAL MOTION IN A TORNADO-LIKE PROMINENCE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Su, Yang; Veronig, Astrid; Temmer, Manuela; Vanninathan, Kamalam; Gömöry, Peter; Wang, Tongjiang; Gan, Weiqun; Li, YouPing

2014-01-01

Su et al. proposed a new explanation for filament formation and eruption, where filament barbs are rotating magnetic structures driven by underlying vortices on the surface. Such structures have been noticed as tornado-like prominences when they appear above the limb. They may play a key role as the source of plasma and twist in filaments. However, no observations have successfully distinguished rotational motion of the magnetic structures in tornado-like prominences from other motions such as oscillation and counter-streaming plasma flows. Here we report evidence of rotational motions in a tornado-like prominence. The spectroscopic observations in two coronal lines were obtained from a specifically designed Hinode/EIS observing program. The data revealed the existence of both cold and million-degree-hot plasma in the prominence leg, supporting the so-called prominence-corona transition region. The opposite velocities at the two sides of the prominence and their persistent time evolution, together with the periodic motions evident in SDO/AIA dark structures, indicate a rotational motion of both cold and hot plasma with a speed of ∼5 km s –1

Some New Ideas About Tornadoes

Science.gov (United States)

Weigel, Edwin P.

1975-01-01

Based on the assumption that if occupants of buildings knew which places in these buildings were relatively safe in disasters such as tornadoes, and if they had sufficient warning, architects and engineers feel there is a significant opportunity to advance the art of school (or building) design to provide tornado-protected areas. (EB)

Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

2015-12-01

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

Inter-comparison of Rainfall Estimation from Radar and Satellite During 2016 June 23 Yancheng Tornado Event over Eastern China

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, C.; Chen, S.; Liang, Z.; Hu, B.

2017-12-01

ABSTRACT: On the afternoon of June 23, 2016, Yancheng city in eastern China was hit by a severe thunderstorm that produced a devastating tornado. This tornado was ranked as an EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita scale by China Meteorological Administration, and killed at least 99 people and injured 846 others (152 seriously). This study evaluates rainfall estimates from ground radar network and four satellite algorithms with a relatively dense rain gauge network over eastern China including Jiangsu province and its adjacent regions for the Yancheng June 23 Tornado extreme convective storm in different spatiotemporal scales (from 0.04° to 0.1° and hourly to event total accumulation). The radar network is composed of about 6 S-band Doppler weather radars. Satellite precipitation products include Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMap). Relative Bias (RB), Root-Mean-Squared Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CC), Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and Critical Success Index (CSI) are used to quantify the performance of these precipitation products.

Modeling the Excitation of Seismic Waves by the Joplin Tornado

Science.gov (United States)

Valovcin, Anne; Tanimoto, Toshiro

2017-10-01

Tornadoes generate seismic signals when they contact the ground. Here we examine the signals excited by the Joplin tornado, which passed within 2 km of a station in the Earthscope Transportable Array. We model the tornado-generated vertical seismic signal at low frequencies (0.01-0.03 Hz) and solve for the strength of the seismic source. The resulting source amplitude is largest when the tornado was reported to be strongest (EF 4-5), and the amplitude is smallest when the tornado was weak (EF 0-2). A further understanding of the relationship between source amplitude and tornado intensity could open up new ways to study tornadoes from the ground.

Population and energy elasticity of tornado casualties

Science.gov (United States)

Fricker, Tyler; Elsner, James B.; Jagger, Thomas H.

2017-04-01

Tornadoes are capable of catastrophic destruction and mass casualties, but there are yet no estimates of how sensitive the number of casualties are to changes in the number of people in harm's way or to changes in tornado energy. Here the relationship between tornado casualties (deaths and injuries), population, and energy dissipation is quantified using the economic concept of "elasticity." Records of casualties from individual tornadoes over the period 2007-2015 are fit to a regression model. The coefficient on the population term (population elasticity) indicates that a doubling in population increases the casualty rate by 21% [(17, 24)%, 95% credible interval]. The coefficient on the energy term (energy elasticity) indicates that a doubling in energy dissipation leads to a 33% [(30, 35)%, 95% credible interval] increase in the casualty rate. The difference in elasticity values show that on average, changes in energy dissipation have been relatively more important in explaining tornado casualties than changes in population. Assuming no changes in warning effectiveness or mitigation efforts, these elasticity estimates can be used to project changes in casualties given the known population trends and possible trends in tornado activity.

The probability of a tornado missile hitting a target

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodman, J.; Koch, J.E.

1983-01-01

It is shown that tornado missile transportation is a diffusion Markovian process. Therefore, the Green's function method is applied for the estimation of the probability of hitting a unit target area. This propability is expressed through a joint density of tornado intensity and path area, a probability of tornado missile injection and a tornado missile height distribution. (orig.)

Numerical Evaluation of Storm Surge Indices for Public Advisory Purposes

Science.gov (United States)

Bass, B.; Bedient, P. B.; Dawson, C.; Proft, J.

2016-12-01

After the devastating hurricane season of 2005, shortcomings with the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale's (SSHS) ability to characterize a tropical cyclones potential to generate storm surge became widely apparent. As a result, several alternative surge indices were proposed to replace the SSHS, including Powell and Reinhold's Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) factor, Kantha's Hurricane Surge Index (HSI), and Irish and Resio's Surge Scale (SS). Of the previous, the IKE factor is the only surge index to-date that truly captures a tropical cyclones integrated intensity, size, and wind field distribution. However, since the IKE factor was proposed in 2007, an accurate assessment of this surge index has not been performed. This study provides the first quantitative evaluation of the IKEs ability to serve as a predictor of a tropical cyclones potential surge impacts as compared to other alternative surge indices. Using the tightly coupled ADvanced CIRCulation and Simulating WAves Nearshore models, the surge and wave responses of Hurricane Ike (2008) and 78 synthetic tropical cyclones were evaluated against the SSHS, IKE, HSI and SS. Results along the upper TX coast of the Gulf of Mexico demonstrate that the HSI performs best in capturing the peak surge response of a tropical cyclone, while the IKE accounting for winds greater than tropical storm intensity (IKETS) provides the most accurate estimate of a tropical cyclones regional surge impacts. These results demonstrate that the appropriate selection of a surge index ultimately depends on what information is of interest to be conveyed to the public and/or scientific community.

Vorticity budget of a tornado-like vortex

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sassa, Koji; Takemura, Saki, E-mail: sassa@kochi-u.ac.jp [Department of Applied Science, Kochi University (Japan)

2011-12-22

We evaluated the vorticity budget of a tornado-like vortex by measuring vertical and horizontal circulations of it. Though spiral horizontal vortices are clearly observed to converge and tilted into the tornado-like vortex, their circulation is quite small. The conversion of the vertical vorticity concentrated at the side of the spiral horizontal vortices was found to mainly contribute to the maintenance of the tornado-like vortex.

Impact assessment of tornado against nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Daisuke

2015-01-01

The impact assessment of tornado against nuclear power plants conforms to the 'Assessment guide for tornado effect on nuclear power plants' stipulated by the Nuclear Regulation Authority. In face of the assessment, important items are the setting of the maximum wind speed considered in design, and the setting of a flying object evaluation model, on the basis of observation results. The Japan Society of Maintenology summarized the verification results of the concept on the setting of tornado design and flying object valuation model, the contents of which are explained here. The following are explained: (1) validity of the setting of tornado design in the Assessment Guide, (2) analysis of synoptic field, (3) study on the regional characteristics of tornado occurrence environmental field by means of the analysis of synoptic field and gust associated index, and (4) setting of tornado design based on the above (1)-(3). Next, on the flying object evaluation model, the authors picked up the Rankine vortex model and Fujita model, and verified the reproducibility of the models using the features of each and the actual state of tornado damage. (A.O.)

Giant boulders and Last Interglacial storm intensity in the North Atlantic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rovere, A.; Casella, E.; Harris, D.L.; Lorscheid, T; Nandasena, N.A.K.; Dyer, B.; Sandstrom, M.R.; Stocchi, P.; D’Andrea, W.J.; Raymo, M.E.

2017-01-01

As global climate warms and sea level rises, coastal areas will be subject to more frequent extreme flooding and hurricanes. Geologic evidence for extreme coastal storms during past warm periods has the potential to provide fundamental insights into their future intensity. Recent studies argue that

Effect of Hurricane Hugo on molluscan skeletal distributions,Salt River Bay, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Arnold I.; Llewellyn, Ghislaine; Parsons, Karla M.; Cummins, Hays; Boardman, Mark R.; Greenstein, Benjamin J.; Jacobs, David K.

1992-01-01

Just prior to the passage of Hurricane Hugo over St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, 35 molluscan skeletal samples were collected at 30 m intervals along a sampling transect in Salt River Bay, on the north-central coast. Three months after the hurricane, the transect was resampled to permit direct assessment of storm effects on skeletal distributions. Results indicate that spatial zonation of molluscan accumulations, associated with environmental transitions along the transect, was maintained in the wake of the hurricane. However, limited transport was diagnosed by comparing the compositions of prestorm and poststorm samples from the deepest, mud-rich subenvironment on the transect. In aggregate, the species richness of samples from the southern half of this zone increased from 16 to 40, and the abundance of species that were not among the characteristic molluscs of this subenvironment increased from 11% to 26%. These storm effects could probably not have been recognized, and attributed directly to Hugo, had there been no prestorm samples with which to compare directly the poststorm samples.

Rationale for reduced tornado design bases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rutherford, P.D.; Ho, H.W.; Hartung, J.A.; Kastenberg, W.E.

1985-01-01

This paper provides a rationale for relaxing the present NRC tornado design requirements, which are based on a design basis tornado (DBT) whose frequency of exceedance is 10 -7 per year. It is proposed that a reduced DBT frequency of 10 -5 to 10 -6 per year is acceptable. This change in the tornado design bases for LMFBRs (and possibly all types of nuclear plants) is justified based on (1) existing NRC regulations and guidelines, (2) probabilistic arguments, (3) consistency with NRC trial safety goals, and (4) cost-benefit analysis

The Impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on Louisiana School Nurses

Science.gov (United States)

Broussard, Lisa; Myers, Rachel; Meaux, Julie

2008-01-01

In the fall of 2005, the coast of Louisiana was devastated by two hurricanes, Katrina and Rita. Not only did these natural disasters have detrimental effects for those directly in their path, the storms had an impact on the lives of everyone in Louisiana. The professional practice of many Louisiana school nurses was affected by several factors,…

Magnetohydrodynamic Models of Molecular Tornadoes

Science.gov (United States)

Au, Kelvin; Fiege, Jason D.

2017-07-01

Recent observations near the Galactic Center (GC) have found several molecular filaments displaying striking helically wound morphology that are collectively known as molecular tornadoes. We investigate the equilibrium structure of these molecular tornadoes by formulating a magnetohydrodynamic model of a rotating, helically magnetized filament. A special analytical solution is derived where centrifugal forces balance exactly with toroidal magnetic stress. From the physics of torsional Alfvén waves we derive a constraint that links the toroidal flux-to-mass ratio and the pitch angle of the helical field to the rotation laws, which we find to be an important component in describing the molecular tornado structure. The models are compared to the Ostriker solution for isothermal, nonmagnetic, nonrotating filaments. We find that neither the analytic model nor the Alfvén wave model suffer from the unphysical density inversions noted by other authors. A Monte Carlo exploration of our parameter space is constrained by observational measurements of the Pigtail Molecular Cloud, the Double Helix Nebula, and the GC Molecular Tornado. Observable properties such as the velocity dispersion, filament radius, linear mass, and surface pressure can be used to derive three dimensionless constraints for our dimensionless models of these three objects. A virial analysis of these constrained models is studied for these three molecular tornadoes. We find that self-gravity is relatively unimportant, whereas magnetic fields and external pressure play a dominant role in the confinement and equilibrium radial structure of these objects.

Magnetohydrodynamic Models of Molecular Tornadoes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Au, Kelvin; Fiege, Jason D., E-mail: fiege@physics.umanitoba.ca [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manitoba Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2 (Canada)

2017-07-10

Recent observations near the Galactic Center (GC) have found several molecular filaments displaying striking helically wound morphology that are collectively known as molecular tornadoes. We investigate the equilibrium structure of these molecular tornadoes by formulating a magnetohydrodynamic model of a rotating, helically magnetized filament. A special analytical solution is derived where centrifugal forces balance exactly with toroidal magnetic stress. From the physics of torsional Alfvén waves we derive a constraint that links the toroidal flux-to-mass ratio and the pitch angle of the helical field to the rotation laws, which we find to be an important component in describing the molecular tornado structure. The models are compared to the Ostriker solution for isothermal, nonmagnetic, nonrotating filaments. We find that neither the analytic model nor the Alfvén wave model suffer from the unphysical density inversions noted by other authors. A Monte Carlo exploration of our parameter space is constrained by observational measurements of the Pigtail Molecular Cloud, the Double Helix Nebula, and the GC Molecular Tornado. Observable properties such as the velocity dispersion, filament radius, linear mass, and surface pressure can be used to derive three dimensionless constraints for our dimensionless models of these three objects. A virial analysis of these constrained models is studied for these three molecular tornadoes. We find that self-gravity is relatively unimportant, whereas magnetic fields and external pressure play a dominant role in the confinement and equilibrium radial structure of these objects.

Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Kiju; Shavitt, Sharon; Viswanathan, Madhu; Hilbe, Joseph M

2014-06-17

Do people judge hurricane risks in the context of gender-based expectations? We use more than six decades of death rates from US hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes. Laboratory experiments indicate that this is because hurricane names lead to gender-based expectations about severity and this, in turn, guides respondents' preparedness to take protective action. This finding indicates an unfortunate and unintended consequence of the gendered naming of hurricanes, with important implications for policymakers, media practitioners, and the general public concerning hurricane communication and preparedness.

Longitudinal Impact of Hurricane Sandy Exposure on Mental Health Symptoms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebecca M. Schwartz

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy hit the eastern coast of the United States in October 2012, causing billions of dollars in damage and acute physical and mental health problems. The long-term mental health consequences of the storm and their predictors have not been studied. New York City and Long Island residents completed questionnaires regarding their initial Hurricane Sandy exposure and mental health symptoms at baseline and 1 year later (N = 130. There were statistically significant decreases in anxiety scores (mean difference = −0.33, p < 0.01 and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD scores (mean difference = −1.98, p = 0.001 between baseline and follow-up. Experiencing a combination of personal and property damage was positively associated with long-term PTSD symptoms (ORadj 1.2, 95% CI [1.1–1.4] but not with anxiety or depression. Having anxiety, depression, or PTSD at baseline was a significant predictor of persistent anxiety (ORadj 2.8 95% CI [1.1–6.8], depression (ORadj 7.4 95% CI [2.3–24.1 and PTSD (ORadj 4.1 95% CI [1.1–14.6] at follow-up. Exposure to Hurricane Sandy has an impact on PTSD symptoms that persists over time. Given the likelihood of more frequent and intense hurricanes due to climate change, future hurricane recovery efforts must consider the long-term effects of hurricane exposure on mental health, especially on PTSD, when providing appropriate assistance and treatment.

Numerical Modeling of Coastal Inundation and Sedimentation by Storm Surge, Tides, and Waves at Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-01

hurricanes (tropical) with a 50-year and a 100-year return period, and one winter storm ( extratropical ) occurred in October 1982. There are a total of 15...under the 0-m and 2-m SLR scenarios, respectively. • Tropical and extratropical storms induce extensive coastal inundation around the military...1 NUMERICAL MODELING OF COASTAL INUNDATION AND SEDIMENTATION BY STORM SURGE, TIDES, AND WAVES AT NORFOLK, VIRGINIA, USA Honghai Li 1 , Lihwa Lin 1

Integration of Ground, Buoys, Satellite and Model data to map the Changes in Meteorological Parameters Associated with Harvey Hurricane

Science.gov (United States)

Chauhan, A.; Sarkar, S.; Singh, R. P.

2017-12-01

The coastal areas have dense onshore and marine observation network and are also routinely monitored by constellation of satellites. The monitoring of ocean, land and atmosphere through a range of meteorological parameters, provides information about the land and ocean surface. Satellite data also provide information at different pressure levels that help to access the development of tropical storms and formation of hurricanes at different categories. Integration of ground, buoys, satellite and model data showing the changes in meteorological parameters during the landfall stages of hurricane Harvey will be discussed. Hurricane Harvey was one of the deadliest hurricanes at the Gulf coast which caused intense flooding from the precipitation. The various observation networks helped city administrators to evacuate the coastal areas, that minimized the loss of lives compared to the Galveston hurricane of 1900 which took 10,000 lives. Comparison of meteorological parameters derived from buoys, ground stations and satellites associated with Harvey and 2005 Katrina hurricane present some of the interesting features of the two hurricanes.

Extraction of lidar-based dune-crest elevations for use in examining the vulnerability of beaches to inundation during hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Stockdon, H.F.; Doran, K.S.; Sallenger, A.H.

2009-01-01

The morphology of coastal sand dunes plays an important role in determining how a beach will respond to a hurricane. Accurate measurements of dune height and position are essential for assessing the vulnerability of beaches to extreme coastal change during future landfalls. Lidar topographic surveys provide rapid, accurate, high-resolution datasets for identifying the location, position, and morphology of coastal sand dunes over large stretches of coast. An algorithm has been developed for identification of the crest of the most seaward sand dune that defines the landward limit of the beach system. Based on changes in beach slope along cross-shore transects of lidar data, dune elevation and location can automatically be extracted every few meters along the coastline. Dune elevations in conjunction with storm-induced water levels can be used to predict the type of coastal response (e.g., beach erosion, dune erosion, overwash, or inundation) that may be expected during hurricane landfall. The vulnerability of the beach system at Fire Island National Seashore in New York to the most extreme of these changes, inundation, is assessed by comparing lidar-derived dune elevations to modeled wave setup and storm surge height. The vulnerability of the beach system to inundation during landfall of a Category 3 hurricane is shown to be spatially variable because of longshore variations in dune height (mean elevation 5.44 m, standard deviation 1.32 m). Hurricane-induced mean water levels exceed dune elevations along 70 of the coastal park, making these locations more vulnerable to inundation during a Category 3 storm. ?? 2009 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

The intertropical convergence zone modulates intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin.

Science.gov (United States)

van Hengstum, Peter J; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Fall, Patricia L; Toomey, Michael R; Albury, Nancy A; Kakuk, Brian

2016-02-24

Most Atlantic hurricanes form in the Main Development Region between 9°N to 20°N along the northern edge of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Previous research has suggested that meridional shifts in the ITCZ position on geologic timescales can modulate hurricane activity, but continuous and long-term storm records are needed from multiple sites to assess this hypothesis. Here we present a 3000 year record of intense hurricane strikes in the northern Bahamas (Abaco Island) based on overwash deposits in a coastal sinkhole, which indicates that the ITCZ has likely helped modulate intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin on millennial to centennial-scales. The new reconstruction closely matches a previous reconstruction from Puerto Rico, and documents a period of elevated intense hurricane activity on the western North Atlantic margin from 2500 to 1000 years ago when paleo precipitation proxies suggest that the ITCZ occupied a more northern position. Considering that anthropogenic warming is predicted to be focused in the northern hemisphere in the coming century, these results provide a prehistoric analog that an attendant northern ITCZ shift in the future may again return the western North Atlantic margin to an active hurricane interval.

Science 101: What Causes Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes?

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Bill

2016-01-01

What causes severe thunderstorms and tornadoes? Tornadoes, often accompanied by severe thunderstorms and hail, form in pretty much the same way as severe thunderstorms. In the continental United States, tornadoes usually form in spring and summer, when warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico moves across the continent from southeast to northwest…

Effect of severe hurricanes on Biorock Coral Reef Restoration Projects in Grand Turk, Turks and Caicos Islands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucy Wells

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Artificial reefs are often discouraged in shallow waters over concerns of storm damage to structures and surrounding habitat. Biorock coral reef restoration projects were initiated in waters around 5m deep in Grand Turk, at Oasis (October 2006 and at Governor’s Beach (November 2007. Hemi-cylindrical steel modules, 6m long were used, four modules at Oasis and six at Governor’s Beach. Each project has over 1200 corals transplanted from sites with high sedimentation damage, and are regularly monitored for coral growth, mortality and fish populations. Corals show immediate growth over wires used to attach corals. Growth has been measured from photographs using a software program and is faster at Governor’s Beach. After hurricanes Hanna and Ike (September 2008 the Governor’s Beach structure was fully standing since the waves passed straight through with little damage, the Oasis structures which were tie-wired rather than welded had one module collapse (since been replaced with a new, welded structure. Hurricane Ike was the strongest hurricane on record to hit Grand Turk. Most cables were replaced following the hurricanes due to damage from debris and high wave action. The projects lost about a third of the corals due to hurricanes. Most of those lost had only been wired a few days before and had not yet attached themselves firmly. These projects have regenerated corals and fish populations in areas of barren sand or bedrock and are now attractive to snorkelers. High coral survival and low structural damage after hurricanes indicate that Biorock reef restoration can be effective in storm-impacted areas. Rev. Biol. Trop. 58 (Suppl. 3: 141-149. Epub 2010 October 01.

Applications of Earth Remote Sensing for Identifying Tornado and Severe Weather Damage

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Lori; Molthan, Andrew; Burks, Jason E.; Bell, Jordan; McGrath, Kevin; Cole, Tony

2016-01-01

NASA SPoRT (Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center) provided MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) imagery to WFOs (Weather Forecast Offices) in Alabama to support April 27th, 2011 damage assessments across the state. SPoRT was awarded a NASA Applied Science: Disasters Feasibility award to investigate the applicability of including remote sensing imagery and derived products into the NOAA/NWS (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather System) Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT). Proposal team was awarded the 3-year proposal to implement a web mapping service and associate data feeds from the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) to provide satellite imagery and derived products directly to the NWS thru the DAT. In the United States, NOAA/NWS is charged with performing damage assessments when storm or tornado damage is suspected after a severe weather event. This has led to the development of the Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT), an application for smartphones, tablets and web browsers that allows for the collection, geo-location, and aggregation of various damage indicators collected during storm surveys.

Review of worldwide occurrence of tornadoes

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Goliger, Adam M

1998-01-01

Full Text Available of about 3]10~5/yr/km2. Tornado events were also reported in Holland, Spain, Switzerland and Malta. 6. Africa Tornado events have been recorded in several Southern African countries (Bot- swana, Swaziland and Namibia) and possibly over Liberia, Ivory Coast...

Storm surge modeling of Superstorm Sandy in the New York City Metropolitan area

Science.gov (United States)

Benimoff, A. I.; Blanton, B. O.; Dzedzits, E.; Fritz, W. J.; Kress, M.; Muzio, P.; Sela, L.

2013-12-01

Even though the New York/New Jersey area does not lie within the typical 'hurricane belt', recent events and the historical record indicate that large infrequent tropical storms have had direct hits on the region, with impacts being amplified due to the nearly right angle bend in the coastline. The recent plan unveiled by New York City's Mayor Bloomberg lays out mitigation strategies to protect the region's communities, infrastructure, and assets from future storms, and numerical simulation of storm surge and wave hazards driven by potential hurricanes plays a central role in developing and evaluating these strategies. To assist in local planning, recovery, and decision-making, we have used the tide, storm surge, and wind wave model ADCIRC+SWAN to simulate storm surge in one of the most populated areas of the United States: the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area. We have generated a new high-resolution triangular finite-element model grid for the region from recent USGS data as well as recent city topographic maps at 2-foot (0.6m) contour intervals, nautical charts, and details of shipping channels. Our hindcast simulations are compared against Superstorm Sandy. We used the City University of New York High Performance Computing Center's Cray XE6tm at the College of Staten Island for these simulations. Hindcasting and analysis of the Superstorm Sandy storm surge and waves indicates that our simulations produce a reasonable representation of actual events. The grid will be used in an ADCIRC-based forecasting system implementation for the region.

Solar Tornadoes Triggered by Interaction between Filaments and EUV Jets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Huadong; Zhang, Jun; Ma, Suli [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Yan, Xiaoli [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011 (China); Xue, Jianchao, E-mail: hdchen@nao.cas.cn, E-mail: zjun@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory for Dark Matter and Space Science, Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China)

2017-05-20

We investigate the formations and evolutions of two successive solar tornadoes in/near AR 12297 during 2015 March 19–20. Recurrent EUV jets close to two filaments were detected along a large-scale coronal loop prior to the appearances of the tornadoes. Under the disturbances from the activities, the filaments continually ascended and finally interacted with the loops tracked by the jets. Subsequently, the structures of the filaments and the loop were merged together, probably via magnetic reconnections, and formed tornado-like structures with a long spiral arm. Our observations suggest that solar tornadoes can be triggered by the interaction between filaments and nearby coronal jets, which has rarely been reported before. At the earlier development phase of the first tornado, about 30 small-scale sub-jets appeared in the tornado’s arm, accompanied by local EUV brightenings. They have an ejection direction approximately vertical to the axis of the arm and a typical maximum speed of ∼280 km s{sup −1}. During the ruinations of the two tornadoes, fast plasma outflows from the strong EUV brightenings inside tornadoes are observed, in company with the untangling or unwinding of the highly twisted tornado structures. These observational features indicate that self reconnections probably occurred between the tangled magnetic fields of the tornadoes and resulted in the rapid disintegrations and disappearances of the tornadoes. According to the reconnection theory, we also derive the field strength of the tornado core to be ∼8 G.

Solar Tornadoes Triggered by Interaction between Filaments and EUV Jets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Huadong; Zhang, Jun; Ma, Suli; Yan, Xiaoli; Xue, Jianchao

2017-01-01

We investigate the formations and evolutions of two successive solar tornadoes in/near AR 12297 during 2015 March 19–20. Recurrent EUV jets close to two filaments were detected along a large-scale coronal loop prior to the appearances of the tornadoes. Under the disturbances from the activities, the filaments continually ascended and finally interacted with the loops tracked by the jets. Subsequently, the structures of the filaments and the loop were merged together, probably via magnetic reconnections, and formed tornado-like structures with a long spiral arm. Our observations suggest that solar tornadoes can be triggered by the interaction between filaments and nearby coronal jets, which has rarely been reported before. At the earlier development phase of the first tornado, about 30 small-scale sub-jets appeared in the tornado’s arm, accompanied by local EUV brightenings. They have an ejection direction approximately vertical to the axis of the arm and a typical maximum speed of ∼280 km s −1 . During the ruinations of the two tornadoes, fast plasma outflows from the strong EUV brightenings inside tornadoes are observed, in company with the untangling or unwinding of the highly twisted tornado structures. These observational features indicate that self reconnections probably occurred between the tangled magnetic fields of the tornadoes and resulted in the rapid disintegrations and disappearances of the tornadoes. According to the reconnection theory, we also derive the field strength of the tornado core to be ∼8 G.

Solar Tornadoes Triggered by Interaction between Filaments and EUV Jets

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Huadong; Zhang, Jun; Ma, Suli; Yan, Xiaoli; Xue, Jianchao

2017-05-01

We investigate the formations and evolutions of two successive solar tornadoes in/near AR 12297 during 2015 March 19-20. Recurrent EUV jets close to two filaments were detected along a large-scale coronal loop prior to the appearances of the tornadoes. Under the disturbances from the activities, the filaments continually ascended and finally interacted with the loops tracked by the jets. Subsequently, the structures of the filaments and the loop were merged together, probably via magnetic reconnections, and formed tornado-like structures with a long spiral arm. Our observations suggest that solar tornadoes can be triggered by the interaction between filaments and nearby coronal jets, which has rarely been reported before. At the earlier development phase of the first tornado, about 30 small-scale sub-jets appeared in the tornado’s arm, accompanied by local EUV brightenings. They have an ejection direction approximately vertical to the axis of the arm and a typical maximum speed of ˜280 km s-1. During the ruinations of the two tornadoes, fast plasma outflows from the strong EUV brightenings inside tornadoes are observed, in company with the untangling or unwinding of the highly twisted tornado structures. These observational features indicate that self reconnections probably occurred between the tangled magnetic fields of the tornadoes and resulted in the rapid disintegrations and disappearances of the tornadoes. According to the reconnection theory, we also derive the field strength of the tornado core to be ˜8 G.

Hurricane coastal flood analysis using multispectral spectral images

Science.gov (United States)

Ogashawara, I.; Ferreira, C.; Curtarelli, M. P.

2013-12-01

Flooding is one of the main hazards caused by extreme events such as hurricanes and tropical storms. Therefore, flood maps are a crucial tool to support policy makers, environmental managers and other government agencies for emergency management, disaster recovery and risk reduction planning. However traditional flood mapping methods rely heavily on the interpolation of hydrodynamic models results, and most recently, the extensive collection of field data. These methods are time-consuming, labor intensive, and costly. Efficient and fast response alternative methods should be developed in order to improve flood mapping, and remote sensing has been proved as a valuable tool for this application. Our goal in this paper is to introduce a novel technique based on spectral analysis in order to aggregate knowledge and information to map coastal flood areas. For this purpose we used the Normalized Diference Water Index (NDWI) which was derived from two the medium resolution LANDSAT/TM 5 surface reflectance product from the LANDSAT climate data record (CDR). This product is generated from specialized software called Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS). We used the surface reflectance products acquired before and after the passage of Hurricane Ike for East Texas in September of 2008. We used as end member a classification of estimated flooded area based on the United States Geological Survey (USGS) mobile storm surge network that was deployed for Hurricane Ike. We used a dataset which consisted of 59 water levels recording stations. The estimated flooded area was delineated interpolating the maximum surge in each location using a spline with barriers method with high tension and a 30 meter Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the National Elevation Dataset (NED). Our results showed that, in the flooded area, the NDWI values decreased after the hurricane landfall on average from 0.38 to 0.18 and the median value decreased from 0.36 to 0.2. However

A Climatological Study of Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones

OpenAIRE

Laiyemo, Razaak O.

2012-01-01

Using data compiled by the National Weather Service Ocean Prediction Center, a hurricane force extratropical cyclone climatology is created for three cold seasons. Using the criteria of Sanders and Gyakum (1980), it is found that 75% of the 259 storms explosively deepened. The frequency maximum in the Atlantic basin is located to the southeast of Greenland. In the Pacific, two maxima to the east of Japan are identified. These results are in good agreement with previous studies, despite differ...

Hurricane Wilma's impact on overall soil elevation and zones within the soil profile in a mangrove forest

Science.gov (United States)

Whelan, K.R.T.; Smith, T. J.; Anderson, G.H.; Ouellette, M.L.

2009-01-01

Soil elevation affects tidal inundation period, inundation frequency, and overall hydroperiod, all of which are important ecological factors affecting species recruitment, composition, and survival in wetlands. Hurricanes can dramatically affect a site's soil elevation. We assessed the impact of Hurricane Wilma (2005) on soil elevation at a mangrove forest location along the Shark River in Everglades National Park, Florida, USA. Using multiple depth surface elevation tables (SETs) and marker horizons we measured soil accretion, erosion, and soil elevation. We partitioned the effect of Hurricane Wilma's storm deposit into four constituent soil zones: surface (accretion) zone, shallow zone (0–0.35 m), middle zone (0.35–4 m), and deep zone (4–6 m). We report expansion and contraction of each soil zone. Hurricane Wilma deposited 37.0 (± 3.0 SE) mm of material; however, the absolute soil elevation change was + 42.8 mm due to expansion in the shallow soil zone. One year post-hurricane, the soil profile had lost 10.0 mm in soil elevation, with 8.5 mm of the loss due to erosion. The remaining soil elevation loss was due to compaction from shallow subsidence. We found prolific growth of new fine rootlets (209 ± 34 SE g m−2) in the storm deposited material suggesting that deposits may become more stable in the near future (i.e., erosion rate will decrease). Surficial erosion and belowground processes both played an important role in determining the overall soil elevation. Expansion and contraction in the shallow soil zone may be due to hydrology, and in the middle and bottom soil zones due to shallow subsidence. Findings thus far indicate that soil elevation has made substantial gains compared to site specific relative sea-level rise, but data trends suggest that belowground processes, which differ by soil zone, may come to dominate the long term ecological impact of storm deposit.

Hurricanes, coral reefs and rainforests: resistance, ruin and recovery in the Caribbean

Science.gov (United States)

Lugo, Ariel E.; Rogers, Caroline S.; Nixon, Scott W.

2000-01-01

The coexistence of hurricanes, coral reefs, and rainforests in the Caribbean demonstrates that highly structured ecosystems with great diversity can flourish in spite of recurring exposure to intense destructive energy. Coral reefs develop in response to wave energy and resist hurricanes largely by virtue of their structural strength. Limited fetch also protects some reefs from fully developed hurricane waves. While storms may produce dramatic local reef damage, they appear to have little impact on the ability of coral reefs to provide food or habitat for fish and other animals. Rainforests experience an enormous increase in wind energy during hurricanes with dramatic structural changes in the vegetation. The resulting changes in forest microclimate are larger than those on reefs and the loss of fruit, leaves, cover, and microclimate has a great impact on animal populations. Recovery of many aspects of rainforest structure and function is rapid, though there may be long-term changes in species composition. While resistance and repair have maintained reefs and rainforests in the past, human impacts may threaten their ability to survive.

Hurricane Rita Track Radar Image with Topographic Overlay

Science.gov (United States)

2005-01-01

[figure removed for brevity, see original site] Animation About the animation: This simulated view of the potential effects of storm surge flooding on Galveston and portions of south Houston was generated with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Although it is protected by a 17-foot sea wall against storm surges, flooding due to storm surges caused by major hurricanes remains a concern. The animation shows regions that, if unprotected, would be inundated with water. The animation depicts flooding in one-meter increments. About the image: The Gulf Coast from the Mississippi Delta through the Texas coast is shown in this satellite image from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) overlain with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and the predicted storm track for Hurricane Rita. The prediction from the National Weather Service was published Sept. 22 at 4 p.m. Central Time, and shows the expected track center in black with the lighter shaded area indicating the range of potential tracks the storm could take. Low-lying terrain along the coast has been highlighted using the SRTM elevation data, with areas within 15 feet of sea level shown in red, and within 30 feet in yellow. These areas are more at risk for flooding and the destructive effects of storm surge and high waves. Data used in this image were acquired by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour, launched on Feb. 11, 2000. SRTM used the same radar instrument that comprised the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) that flew twice on the Space Shuttle Endeavour in 1994. SRTM was designed to collect 3-D measurements of the Earth's surface. To collect the 3-D data, engineers added a 60-meter (approximately 200-foot) mast, installed additional C-band and X-band antennas, and improved tracking and navigation devices. The mission is a cooperative project between NASA, the National Geospatial

Homogenizing an urban habitat mosaic: arthropod diversity declines in New York City parks after Super Storm Sandy.

Science.gov (United States)

Savage, Amy M; Youngsteadt, Elsa; Ernst, Andrew F; Powers, Shelby A; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

2018-01-01

The frequency and intensity of hurricanes are increasing globally, and anthropogenic modifications in cities have created systems that may be particularly vulnerable to their negative effects. Organisms living in cities are exposed to variable levels of chronic environmental stress. However, whether chronic stress ameliorates or exacerbates the negative effects of hurricanes remains an open question. Here, we consider two hypotheses about the simultaneous consequences of acute disturbances from hurricanes and chronic stress from urbanization for the structure of urban arthropod communities. The tipping point hypothesis posits that organisms living in high stress habitats are less resilient than those in low stress habitats because they are living near the limits of their environmental tolerances; while the disturbance tolerance hypothesis posits that high stress habitats host organisms pre-adapted for coping with disturbance, making them more resilient to the effects of storms. We used a before-after-control-impact design in the street medians and city parks of Manhattan (New York City, New York, USA) to compare arthropod communities before and after Super Storm Sandy in sites that were flooded and unflooded during the storm. Our evidence supported the disturbance tolerance hypothesis. Significant compositional differences between street medians and city parks before the storm disappeared after the storm; similarly, unflooded city parks had significantly different arthropod composition while flooded sites were indistinguishable. These differences were driven by reduced occurrences and abundances of arthropods in city parks. Finally, those arthropod groups that were most tolerant to urban stress were also the most tolerant to flooding. Our results suggest that the species that survive in high stress environments are likely to be the ones that thrive in response to acute disturbance. As storms become increasingly common and extreme, this juxtaposition in responses to

Assessment of the Temporal Evolution of Storm Surge via Land to Water Isopleths in Coastal Louisiana

Science.gov (United States)

Siverd, C. G.; Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Braud, D.; Gao, S.; Peele, H.; Twilley, R.

2017-12-01

The low-lying coastal Louisiana deltaic landscape features an intricate system of fragmented wetlands, natural ridges, man-made navigation canals and flood protection infrastructure. Since 1900 and prior to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Louisiana lost approximately 480,000 ha (1,850 sq mi) of coastal wetlands and an additional 20,000 ha (77 sq mi) due to Katrina. This resulted in a total wetland storm protection value loss of USD 28.3 billion and USD 1.1 billion, respectively (Costanza 2008). To investigate the response of hurricane storm surge (e.g. peak water levels, inundation time and extent) through time due to land loss, hydrodynamic models that represent historical eras of the Louisiana coastal landscape were developed. Land:Water (L:W) isopleths (Gagliano 1970, 1971, Twilley 2016) have been calculated along the coast from the Sabine River to the Pearl River. These isopleths were utilized to create a simplified coastal landscape (bathymetry, topography, bottom roughness) representing circa 2010. Similar methodologies are employed with the objective of developing storm surge models that represent the coastal landscape for past eras. The goal is to temporally examine the evolution of storm surge along coastal Louisiana. The isopleths determined to best represent the Louisiana coast as a result of the methodology devised to develop the simple storm surge model for c.2010 are applied in the development of surge models for historical eras c.1930 and c.1970. The ADvaced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) code (Luettich 2004) is used to perform storm surge simulations with a predetermined suite of hurricane wind and pressure forcings. Hydrologic Unit Code 12 (HUC12) sub-watersheds provide geographical bounds to quantify mean maximum water surface elevations (WSEs), volume of inundation, and area of inundation. HUC12 sub-watersheds also provide a means to compare/contrast these quantified surge parameters on a HUC12-by-HUC12 basis for the c.1930, c.1970 and c.2010

Impacts of a Destructive and Well-Observed Cross-Country Winter Storm.

Science.gov (United States)

Martner, Brooks E.; Rauber, Robert M.; Ramamurthy, Mohan K.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Prater, Erwin T.

1992-02-01

A winter storm that crossed the continental United States in mid-February 1990 produced hazardous weather across a vast area of the nation. A wide range of severe weather was reported, including heavy snowfall; freezing rain and drizzle; thunderstorms with destructive winds, lightning, large hail, and tornadoes; prolonged heavy rain with subsequent flooding; frost damage to citrus orchards; and sustained destructive winds not associated with thunderstorms. Low-end preliminary estimates of impacts included 9 deaths, 27 injuries, and $120 million of property damage. At least 35 states and southeastern Canada were adversely affected. The storm occurred during the field operations of four independent atmospheric research projects that obtained special, detailed observations of it from the Rocky Mountains to the eastern great Lakes.

Near-real-time Forensic Disaster Analysis: experiences from hurricane Sandy

Science.gov (United States)

Kunz, Michael; Mühr, Bernhard; Schröter, Kai; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Daniell, James; Khazai, Bijan; Wenzel, Friedemann; Vannieuwenhuyse, Marjorie; Comes, Tina; Münzberg, Thomas; Elmer, Florian; Fohringer, Joachim; Lucas, Christian; Trieselmann, Werner; Zschau, Jochen

2013-04-01

Hurricane Sandy was the last tropical cyclone of the 2012 Northern Atlantic Hurricane season that made landfall. It moved on an unusual track from the Caribbean to the East Coast of the United States from 24 to 30 October as a Category 1 and 2 Hurricane according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Along its path, the severe storm event caused widespread damage including almost 200 fatalities. In the early hours of 30 October, Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. Sandy was an extraordinary event due to its multihazard nature and several cascading effects in the aftermath. From the hydro-meteorological perspective, most unusual was the very large spatial extent of up to 1,700 km. High wind speeds were associated with record breaking storm surges at the U.S. Mid- Atlantic and New England Coast during high (astronomical) tide, leading to widespread flooding. Though Sandy was not the most severe storm event in terms of wind speed and precipitation, the impact in the U.S. was enormous with total damage estimates of up to 90 billion US (own estimate from Dec. 2012). Although much better data emerge weeks after such an event, the Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) Task Force of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) made an effort to obtain a comprehensive and holistic overview of the causes, hazardous effects and consequences associated with Sandy immediately after landfall at the U.S. coast on 30 October 2012. This was done in an interdisciplinary way by collecting and compiling scattered and distributed information from available databases and sources via the Internet, by applying own methodologies and models for near-real time analyses developed in recent years, and by expert knowledge. This contribution gives an overview about the CEDIM-FDA analyses' results. It describes the situation that led to the extraordinary event, highlights the interaction of the tropical cyclone with other hydro-meteorological events, and examines the

Geotechnical Impacts of Hurricane Harvey Along the Texas, USA Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Smallegan, S. M.; Stark, N.; Jafari, N.; Ravichandran, N.; Shafii, I.; Bassal, P.; Figlus, J.

2017-12-01

As part of the NSF-funded Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance (GEER) Association response to Hurricane Harvey, a team of engineers and scientists mobilized to the coastal cities of Texas, USA from 1 to 5 September 2017. Damage to coastal and riverine structures due to erosion by storm surge, waves, and coastal and riverine flooding was assessed in a wide coastal zone between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Making initial landfall near Rockport, Texas on 26 August 2017, Hurricane Harvey was classified as a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale with wind speeds exceeding 130 mph and an atmospheric pressure of 938 mbar. The storm stalled over the Houston area, pouring 40 inches of rain on an area encompassing more than 3,000 square miles. Hurricane Harvey, which remained a named storm for 117 hours after initial landfall, slowly moved east into the Gulf of Mexico and made final landfall near Cameron, Louisiana on 30 August. The GEER team surveyed sixteen main sites, extending from Mustang Island in the southwest to Galveston in the northeast and as far inland as Rosenburg. In Port Aransas, beach erosion and undercutting along a beach access road near Aransas Pass were observed. Due to several tide gauge failures in this area, the nearest NOAA tide gauge (#8775870 near Corpus Christi) was used to estimate water levels of 1.35 m, approximately 1.0 m above the predicted tide. In Holiday Beach, anchored retaining walls were inundated, causing backside scour along the entire length and exposing the sheetpile wall anchors. Along the Colorado River at the Highway 35 bridge near Bay City, active riverbank failure was observed and a sheet pile wall was found collapsed. Significant sediment deposits lined the vegetated riverbanks. A USGS stream gage recorded gage heights greater than 45 ft, exceeding the flood stage of 44 ft. Fronting a rubblemound seawall in Surfside Beach, a runnel and ridge formation was observed. Nearby at San Luis Pass, infilled scour

Disaster preparedness of dialysis patients for Hurricanes Gustav and Ike 2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Kleinpeter, Myra A

2009-01-01

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita resulted in massive devastation of the Gulf Coast at Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas during 2005. Because of those disasters, dialysis providers, nephrologists, and dialysis patients used disaster planning activities to work to mitigate the morbidity and mortality associated with the 2005 hurricane season for future events affecting dialysis patients. As Hurricane Gustav approached, anniversary events for Hurricane Katrina were postponed because of evacuation orders for nearly the entire Louisiana Gulf Coast. As part of the hurricane preparation, dialysis units reviewed the disaster plans of patients, and patients made preparation for evacuation. Upon evacuation, many patients returned to the dialysis units that had provided services during their exile from Hurricane Katrina; other patients went to other locations as part of their evacuation plan. Patients uniformly reported positive experiences with dialysis providers in their temporary evacuation communities, provided that those communities did not experience the effects of Hurricane Gustav. With the exception of evacuees to Baton Rouge, patients continued to receive their treatments uninterrupted. Because of extensive damage in the Baton Rouge area, resulting in widespread power losses and delayed restoration of power to hospitals and other health care facilities, some patients missed one treatment. However, as a result of compliance with disaster fluid and dietary recommendations, no adverse outcomes occurred. In most instances, patients were able to return to their home dialysis unit or a nearby unit to continue dialysis treatments within 4 - 5 days of Hurricane Gustav. Hurricane Ike struck the Texas Gulf Coast near Galveston, resulting in devastation of that area similar to the devastation seen in New Orleans after Katrina. The storm surge along the Louisiana Gulf Coast resulted in flooding that temporarily closed coastal dialysis units. Patients were prepared and experienced

Two Categories of Apparent Tornado-like Prominences

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Sara F.; Venkataramanasastry, Aparna

2014-06-01

Two categories of solar prominences have been described in the literature as having a pattern of mass motions and/or a shape similar to terrestrial tornados. We first identify the two categories associated with prominences in the historic literature and then show that counterparts do exist for both in recent literature but one has not been called a tornado prominence. One category described as being similar to tornados is associated with the barbs of quiescent filaments but barbs appear to have rotational motion only under special conditions. H alpha Doppler observations from Helio Research confirm that this category is an illusion in our mind’s eye resulting from counterstreaming in the large barbs of quiescent filaments. The second category is a special case of rotational motion occurring during the early stages of some erupting prominences, in recent years called the roll effect in erupting prominences. In these cases, the eruption begins with the sideways rolling of the top of a prominence. As the eruption proceeds the rolling motion propagates down one leg or both legs of an erupting prominence depending on whether the eruption is asymmetric or symmetric respectively. As an asymmetric eruption proceeds, the longer lasting leg becomes nearly vertical and has true rotational motion. If only this phase of the eruption was observed, as in the historic cases, it was called a tornado prominence and spectra recorded in these cases provide proof of the rotational motion. When one observes an entire eruption which exhibits the rolling motion, as accomplished at Helio Research, the similarity to a tornado is lost because the event as a whole has quite a different nature and the analogy to a terrestrial tornado not longer appears suitable or helpful in understanding the observed and deduced physical processes. Our conclusion is that there are no solar prominences with motions that are usefully described as tornado or tornado-like events aside from the fun of observing

Tropical North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interactions synchronize forest carbon losses from hurricanes and Amazon fires

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Morton, Douglas C.

2015-08-01

We describe a climate mode synchronizing forest carbon losses from North and South America by analyzing time series of tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), landfall hurricanes and tropical storms, and Amazon fires during 1995-2013. Years with anomalously high tropical North Atlantic SSTs during March-June were often followed by a more active hurricane season and a larger number of satellite-detected fires in the southern Amazon during June-November. The relationship between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and southern Amazon fires (r = 0.61, p forests.

Wind vs Water in Hurricanes: The Challenge of Multi-peril Hazard Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, M. D.

2017-12-01

With the advancing threat of Sea Level Rise much of the U. S. is in danger of falling into the "protection gap". Residential property flood risk is not yet covered by the insurance market. Many coastal properties are not paying into the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) at premiums commensurate with the risk. This is exasperated by the program being deep in debt, despite only covering a fraction of the potential loss, while windstorm insurance covers up to replacement value. This results in a battle that benefits nobody. Any significant hurricane will include both wind and storm surge perils at the same time and any coastal property has to contend with the risk of damage by both. If you have extensive flood damage your wind storm policy might deny your claim and your flood policy (if you even have one) will in most cases be constrained to a $250,000 limit. Bring on the litigators! Some homeowners will claim that the wind destroyed the home first and then it was carried away by flood waters or pulverized by waves. Insurers might respond that the storm surge did all the damage and deny the claim. We've seen this already following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and Hurricane Ike in 2008, with thousands of litigation claims and a cottage industry of scientists serving as expert witnesses on both sides of the aisle. Congress responded in 2012 with the Coastal Act, which provided an "unfunded mandate" directing NOAA to provide wind and water level data to FEMA for input to their "Coastal Formula" for attributing loss to wind and water. The results of the formula would then limit the amount paid by the NFIP by subtracting out the wind loss portion. The Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA) went further by assembling a panel of experts to recommend guidelines for how the state should respond to future hurricane impacting properties on the Texas coast. The expert panel report was released in April of 2016, and TWIA is currently developing a comprehensive

Superstorm Sweeps Over England

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

A large, low-pressure system swept across the United Kingdom on Monday, spawning at least three tornadoes there before continuing on toward Scandanavia. This image, acquired on October 30, by the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), shows the storm after it brought torrential rain and hurricane-strength winds to Britain in perhaps the worst storm to hit the country since 1987. High seas nearing 23 feet (7 meters) and winds gusting up to 109 mph wreaked havoc on sea traffic, causing delays or cancelled ferries across the English Channel and necessitating the rescue of crews from stranded ships, including a Norwegian freighter and an Italian cargo ship. Image provided by the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

Impact of Hurricane Irma in the post-recovery of Matthew in South Carolina, the South Atlantic Bight (Western Atlantic)

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, M. S.; Levine, N. S.; Jaume, S. C.; Hendricks, J. K.; Rubin, N. D.; Hernandez, J. L.

2017-12-01

The impacts on the Southeastern United States (SEUS, Western Atlantic) from Hurricane Irma in Sept 2017 were felt primarily on the active coastline with the third highest inland storm surge in Charleston and Savannah since the 19th Century. Coastal geometry, waves, and wind duration had a strong influence on the storm surge and coastal erosion impacts regionally. To the North and immediate South, impacts were much less. A full year after the 2016 hurricane season (Hurricane Matthew), the lack of regional recovery reduced protection against Irma. The most devastating impacts of Irma in the SAB occurred from 300 to 500 km away from the eye, on the opposite side of the Floridian peninsula. As Irma devastated the Caribbean, winds started to increases off the SAB on September 8 in the early morning, continuing for the next 3 days and blowing directly towards the SC and GA coasts. Tide gauges started to respond the night of September 8, while waves started arriving in the SEUS around Sept 6. Coastal erosion pre- and post-Irma has been calculated for Central SC using vertical and oblique aerial photos. Citizen Science initiatives through the Charleston Resilience Network have provided on-the-ground data during storms when transportation infrastructures were closed, and allow for ground-truth post-storm of surge and impacts. Said information was collected through Facebook, Google, and other social media. Pictures with timestamps and water heights were collected and are validating inundation flood maps generated for the Charleston SC region. The maps have 1-m horizontal and 7- to 15-cm vertical accuracy. Inundation surfaces were generated at MHHW up to a maximum surge in 6 inch increments. The flood extents of the modeled surge and the photographic evidence show a high correspondence. Storm surge measurements from RTK-GPS provide regional coverage of surge elevations from the coast, inland, and allow for testing of modeled results and model tuning. With Hurricane Irma

Modern tornado design of nuclear and other potentially hazardous facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stevenson, J.D.; Zhao, Y.

1996-01-01

Tornado wind loads and other tornado phenomena, including tornado missiles and differential pressure effects, have not usually been considered in the design of conventional industrial, commercial, or residential facilities in the United States; however, tornado resistance has often become a design requirement for certain hazardous facilities, such as large nuclear power plants and nuclear materials and waste storage facilities, as well as large liquefied natural gas storage facilities. This article provides a review of current procedures for the design of hazardous industrial facilities to resist tornado effects. 23 refs., 19 figs., 13 tabs

Estimating Areas of Vulnerability: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Hazards in the National Parks

Science.gov (United States)

Caffrey, M.; Beavers, R. L.; Slayton, I. A.

2013-12-01

The University of Colorado Boulder in collaboration with the National Park Service has undertaken the task of compiling sea level change and storm surge data for 105 coastal parks. The aim of our research is to highlight areas of the park system that are at increased risk of rapid inundation as well as periodic flooding due to sea level rise and storms. This research will assist park managers and planners in adapting to climate change. The National Park Service incorporates climate change data into many of their planning documents and is willing to implement innovative coastal adaptation strategies. Events such as Hurricane Sandy highlight how impacts of coastal hazards will continue to challenge management of natural and cultural resources and infrastructure along our coastlines. This poster will discuss the current status of this project. We discuss the impacts of Hurricane Sandy as well as the latest sea level rise and storm surge modeling being employed in this project. In addition to evaluating various drivers of relative sea-level change, we discuss how park planners and managers also need to consider projected storm surge values added to sea-level rise magnitudes, which could further complicate the management of coastal lands. Storm surges occurring at coastal parks will continue to change the land and seascapes of these areas, with the potential to completely submerge them. The likelihood of increased storm intensity added to increasing rates of sea-level rise make predicting the reach of future storm surges essential for planning and adaptation purposes. The National Park Service plays a leading role in developing innovative strategies for coastal parks to adapt to sea-level rise and storm surge, whilst coastal storms are opportunities to apply highly focused responses.

The Effect of Coastal Development on Storm Surge Flooding in Biscayne Bay, Florida, USA (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, K.; Liu, H.; Li, Y.

2013-12-01

Barrier islands and associated bays along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are a favorite place for both living and visiting. Many of them are vulnerable to storm surge flooding because of low elevations and constantly being subjected to the impacts of storms. The population increase and urban development along the barrier coast have altered the shoreline configuration, resulting in a dramatic change in the coastal flooding pattern in some areas. Here we present such a case based on numerical simulations of storm surge flooding caused by the1926 hurricane in the densely populated area surrounding Biscayne Bay in Miami, Florida. The construction of harbor and navigation channels, and the development of real estate and the roads connecting islands along Biscayne Bay have changed the geometry of Biscayne Bay since 1910s. Storm surge simulations show that the Port of Miami and Dodge Island constructed by human after 1950 play an important role in changing storm surge inundation pattern along Biscayne Bay. Dodge Island enhances storm surge and increases inundation in the area south of the island, especially at the mouth of Miami River (Downtown of Miami), and reduces storm surge flooding in the area north of the island, especially in Miami Beach. If the Hurricane Miami of 1926 happened today, the flooding area would be reduced by 55% and 20% in the Miami Beach and North Miami areas, respectively. Consequently, it would prevent 400 million of property and 10 thousand people from surge flooding according to 2010 U.S census and 2007 property tax data. Meanwhile, storm water would penetrate further inland south of Dodge Island and increase the flooding area by 25% in the Miami River and Downtown Miami areas. As a result, 200 million of property and five thousand people would be impacted by storm surge.

Evaluation of Deep Learning Representations of Spatial Storm Data

Science.gov (United States)

Gagne, D. J., II; Haupt, S. E.; Nychka, D. W.

2017-12-01

The spatial structure of a severe thunderstorm and its surrounding environment provide useful information about the potential for severe weather hazards, including tornadoes, hail, and high winds. Statistics computed over the area of a storm or from the pre-storm environment can provide descriptive information but fail to capture structural information. Because the storm environment is a complex, high-dimensional space, identifying methods to encode important spatial storm information in a low-dimensional form should aid analysis and prediction of storms by statistical and machine learning models. Principal component analysis (PCA), a more traditional approach, transforms high-dimensional data into a set of linearly uncorrelated, orthogonal components ordered by the amount of variance explained by each component. The burgeoning field of deep learning offers two potential approaches to this problem. Convolutional Neural Networks are a supervised learning method for transforming spatial data into a hierarchical set of feature maps that correspond with relevant combinations of spatial structures in the data. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are an unsupervised deep learning model that uses two neural networks trained against each other to produce encoded representations of spatial data. These different spatial encoding methods were evaluated on the prediction of severe hail for a large set of storm patches extracted from the NCAR convection-allowing ensemble. Each storm patch contains information about storm structure and the near-storm environment. Logistic regression and random forest models were trained using the PCA and GAN encodings of the storm data and were compared against the predictions from a convolutional neural network. All methods showed skill over climatology at predicting the probability of severe hail. However, the verification scores among the methods were very similar and the predictions were highly correlated. Further evaluations are being

Cold-Season Tornadoes: Climatological, Meteorological, and Social Perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Childs, Samuel J.

Tornadoes that occur during the cold season, defined here as November-February (NDJF), pose many unique societal risks. For example, people can be caught off-guard because in general one does not expect severe weather and tornadoes during winter months. The public can also be unsuspecting of significant weather due to the bustle of major holidays like Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's, when most people are concerned with family activities and not thinking about the weather. Cold-season tornadoes also have a propensity to be nocturnal and occur most frequently in the South and Southeastern U.S., where variable terrain, inadequate resources, and a relatively high mobile home density add additional social vulnerabilities. Over the period 1953-2015 within a study domain of (25-42.5°N, 75-100°W), some 937 people lost their lives as a result of NDJF tornadoes. Despite this enhanced societal risk of cold-season tornadoes in the South, very little attention has been given to their meteorological characteristics and climate patterns, and public awareness of their potential impacts is lacking. This thesis aims to greatly advance the current state of knowledge of NDJF tornadoes by providing an in-depth investigation from three different science perspectives. First, a climatology of all (E)F1-(E)F5 NDJF tornadoes is developed, spanning the period 1953-2015 within a domain of (25-42.5°N, 75-100°W), in order to assess frequency and spatial changes over time. A large increasing trend in cold-season tornado occurrence is found across much of the Southeastern U.S., with the greatest uptick in Tennessee, while a decreasing trend is found across eastern Oklahoma. Spectral analysis reveals a cyclic pattern of enhanced NDJF counts every 3-7 years, coincident with the known period for ENSO. Indeed, La Nina episodes are found to be correlated with NDJF tornado counts, although a stronger teleconnection correlation exists with the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which explains 25% of

Leveraging Twitter to gauge evacuation compliance: Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane Matthew.

Science.gov (United States)

Martín, Yago; Li, Zhenlong; Cutter, Susan L

2017-01-01

Hurricane Matthew was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Katrina in 2005 and prompted one of the largest recent hurricane evacuations along the Southeastern coast of the United States. The storm and its projected landfall triggered a massive social media reaction. Using Twitter data, this paper examines the spatiotemporal variability in social media response and develops a novel approach to leverage geotagged tweets to assess the evacuation responses of residents. The approach involves the retrieval of tweets from the Twitter Stream, the creation and filtering of different datasets, and the statistical and spatial processing and treatment to extract, plot and map the results. As expected, peak Twitter response was reached during the pre-impact and preparedness phase, and decreased abruptly after the passage of the storm. A comparison between two time periods-pre-evacuation (October 2th-4th) and post-evacuation (October 7th-9th)-indicates that 54% of Twitter users moved away from the coast to a safer location, with observed differences by state on the timing of the evacuation. A specific sub-state analysis of South Carolina illustrated overall compliance with evacuation orders and detailed information on the timing of departure from the coast as well as the destination location. These findings advance the use of big data and citizen-as-sensor approaches for public safety issues, providing an effective and near real-time alternative for measuring compliance with evacuation orders.

Leveraging Twitter to gauge evacuation compliance: Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane Matthew.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yago Martín

Full Text Available Hurricane Matthew was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Katrina in 2005 and prompted one of the largest recent hurricane evacuations along the Southeastern coast of the United States. The storm and its projected landfall triggered a massive social media reaction. Using Twitter data, this paper examines the spatiotemporal variability in social media response and develops a novel approach to leverage geotagged tweets to assess the evacuation responses of residents. The approach involves the retrieval of tweets from the Twitter Stream, the creation and filtering of different datasets, and the statistical and spatial processing and treatment to extract, plot and map the results. As expected, peak Twitter response was reached during the pre-impact and preparedness phase, and decreased abruptly after the passage of the storm. A comparison between two time periods-pre-evacuation (October 2th-4th and post-evacuation (October 7th-9th-indicates that 54% of Twitter users moved away from the coast to a safer location, with observed differences by state on the timing of the evacuation. A specific sub-state analysis of South Carolina illustrated overall compliance with evacuation orders and detailed information on the timing of departure from the coast as well as the destination location. These findings advance the use of big data and citizen-as-sensor approaches for public safety issues, providing an effective and near real-time alternative for measuring compliance with evacuation orders.

Family emergency preparedness plans in severe tornadoes.

Science.gov (United States)

Cong, Zhen; Liang, Daan; Luo, Jianjun

2014-01-01

Tornadoes, with warnings usually issued just minutes before their touchdowns, pose great threats to properties and people's physical and mental health. Few studies have empirically investigated the association of family emergency preparedness planning and observed protective behaviors in the context of tornadoes. The purpose of this study was to examine predictors for the action of taking shelter at the time of tornadoes. Specifically, this study investigated whether having a family emergency preparedness plan was associated with higher likelihood of taking shelter upon receiving tornado warnings. This study also examined the effects of socioeconomic status and functional limitations on taking such actions. A telephone survey based on random sampling was conducted in 2012 with residents in Tuscaloosa AL and Joplin MO. Each city experienced considerable damages, injuries, and casualties after severe tornadoes (EF-4 and EF-5) in 2011. The working sample included 892 respondents. Analysis was conducted in early 2013. Logistic regression identified emergency preparedness planning as the only shared factor that increased the likelihood of taking shelter in both cities and the only significant factor in Joplin. In Tuscaloosa, being female and white also increased the likelihood of taking shelter. Disability was not found to have an effect. This study provided empirical evidence on the importance of having a family emergency preparedness plan in mitigating the risk of tornadoes. The findings could be applied to other rapid-onset disasters. © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine Published by American Journal of Preventive Medicine All rights reserved.

Re-interpreting Prominences Classified as Tornadoes

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Sara F.; Venkataramanasastry, Aparna

2015-04-01

Some papers in the recent literature identify tornado prominences with barbs of quiescent prominences while papers in the much older historic literature include a second category of tornado prominence that does not correspond to a barb of a quiescent prominence. The latter are described as prominence mass rotating around a nearly vertical axis prior to its eruption and the rotation was verified by spectral measurements. From H alpha Doppler-shifted mass motions recorded at Helio Research or the Dutch Open Telescope, we illustrate how the apparent tornado-like motions, identified with barbs, are illusions in our mind’s eye resulting from poorly resolved counterstreaming threads of mass in the barbs of quiescent prominences. In contrast, we confirm the second category of rotational motion in prominences shortly before and during eruption. In addition, we identify this second category as part of the late phase of a phenomenon called the roll effect in erupting prominences. In these cases, the eruption begins with the sideways rolling of the top of a prominence. As the eruption proceeds the rolling motion propagates down one leg or both legs of the prominence depending on whether the eruption is asymmetric or symmetric respectively. As an asymmetric eruption continues, the longer lasting leg becomes nearly vertical and its rotational motion also continues. If only this phase of the eruption was observed, as in some historic cases, it was called a tornado prominence. However, when we now observe entire eruptions in time-lapse sequences, the similarity to terrestrial tornadoes is lost. We conclude that neither prominence barbs, that give the illusion of rotation, nor the cases of true rotational motion, in the legs of erupting prominences, are usefully described as tornado prominences when the complete prominence structure or complete erupting event is observed.

Developing Local Scale, High Resolution, Data to Interface with Numerical Storm Models

Science.gov (United States)

Witkop, R.; Becker, A.; Stempel, P.

2017-12-01

High resolution, physical storm models that can rapidly predict storm surge, inundation, rainfall, wind velocity and wave height at the intra-facility scale for any storm affecting Rhode Island have been developed by Researchers at the University of Rhode Island's (URI's) Graduate School of Oceanography (GSO) (Ginis et al., 2017). At the same time, URI's Marine Affairs Department has developed methods that inhere individual geographic points into GSO's models and enable the models to accurately incorporate local scale, high resolution data (Stempel et al., 2017). This combination allows URI's storm models to predict any storm's impacts on individual Rhode Island facilities in near real time. The research presented here determines how a coastal Rhode Island town's critical facility managers (FMs) perceive their assets as being vulnerable to quantifiable hurricane-related forces at the individual facility scale and explores methods to elicit this information from FMs in a format usable for incorporation into URI's storm models.

The Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network of the U.S. Geological Survey—Past and future implementation of storm-response monitoring, data collection, and data delivery