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Sample records for hurricane tornado storm

  1. Prevention of destructive tropical and extratropical storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms, and catastrophic floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Yu. Krasilnikov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in the instability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather a long time duration. Based on this hypothesis, a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease in an electric field, a sudden increase in precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method, based on the natural phenomenon, ensures the prevention of the intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It also ensures the suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates the development of dangerous thunderstorms and the possibility of the emergence and intensification of tornadoes.

  2. Mathematical modeling of tornadoes and squall storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Arsen’yev

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional mathematical modeling of a tornado with the fourth coordinate time multiplied by its characteristic velocity. Such a tornado can arise in a thunderstorm supercell filled with turbulent whirlwinds. A theory of the squall storms is proposed. The squall storm is modeled by running perturbation of the temperature inversion on the lower boundary of cloudiness. This perturbation is induced by the action of strong, hurricane winds in the upper and middle troposphere, and looks like a running solitary wave (soliton; which is developed also in a field of pressure and velocity of a wind. If a soliton of a squall storm gets into the thunderstorm supercell then this soliton is captured by supercell. It leads to additional pressure fall of air inside a storm supercell and stimulate amplification of wind velocity here. As a result, a cyclostrophic balance inside a storm supercell generates a tornado. Comparison of the radial distribution of wind velocity inside a tornado calculated by using the new formulas and equations with radar observations of the wind velocity inside Texas Tornado Dummit in 1995 and inside the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado shows good correspondence.

  3. Genesis of tornadoes associated with hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentry, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    The climatological history of hurricane-tornadoes is brought up to date through 1982. Most of the tornadoes either form near the center of the hurricane, from the outer edge of the eyewall outward, or in an area between north and east-southeast of the hurricane center. The blackbody temperatures of the cloud tops which were analyzed for several hurricane-tornadoes that formed in the years 1974, 1975, and 1979, did not furnish strong precursor signals of tornado formation, but followed one of two patterns: either the temperatures were very low, or the tornado formed in areas of strong temperature gradients. Tornadoes with tropical cyclones most frequently occur at 1200-1800 LST, and although most are relatively weak, they can reach the F3 intensity level. Most form in association with the outer rainbands of the hurricane.

  4. Weather Fundamentals: Hurricanes & Tornadoes. [Videotape].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998

    The videos in this educational series, for grades 4-7, help students understand the science behind weather phenomena through dramatic live-action footage, vivid animated graphics, detailed weather maps, and hands-on experiments. This episode (23 minutes) features information on the deadliest and most destructive storms on Earth. Through satellite…

  5. The 2008 Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak: Overview of the Tornadoes and their Parent Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knupp, Kevin R.; Coleman, Tim; Carey, Larry; Petersen, Walt

    2008-01-01

    The cold-season Tornado outbreak that occurred over the Southeast on 5-6 February 2008 was significant for the following reasons: about 84 tornadoes were documented over a 15 h period between late afternoon on 5 February and early morning on 6 February 2008; a wide variety of parent storms were associated with the tornadoes; a total of five EF-4 tornadoes occurred, with two forming over Alabama during the early morning hours prior to sunrise; there was a significant lull period between the initial convective and the early morning activity over Alabama 10 hours later; and, a wide spectrum of storm types, ranging from isolated supercell storms to QLCS bow echoes, accompanied the tornadoes. The goal of this paper is to provide a general description of the outbreak including the distribution of tornadoes and supercell storms over the region, a detailed map of the tornado tracks, time series of tornadoes and parent storms, and general characteristics of all parent tornado storms. The total number of major storms (duration greater than 3 h, at least three tornadoes produced) was seven. Several noteworthy storms are described: a long track (198 km long) tornado and its parent storm over Arkansas; a prolific supercell storm persisted for 7-8 hours and produced 16 tornadoes from north-central Mississippi to southern KY; and, bow echo storms (QLCS's) were simultaneous over KY and produced 16 tornadoes.

  6. Okla. Tornado Renews Debate on Storm Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Nirvi

    2013-01-01

    As soon as the winds that left seven students in Moore, Okla., dead last month had calmed, and more storms blew through the same area less than two weeks later, questions about the safety of schools in a region labeled Tornado Alley rose amid the rubble. While better design of new schools and thorough emergency training and practice may be in…

  7. Tornadoes & Hurricanes. The Natural Disaster Series. Grades 4-8.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deery, Ruth

    The topics of tornadoes and hurricanes are important to children but are often missing from elementary textbooks. This document is a part of "The Natural Disaster Series" and is an attempt to supplement elementary science and social studies programs with lessons and student activities. Reasoning skills are emphasized throughout the…

  8. Hurricane Hazel: Canada's storm of the century

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gifford, Jim

    2004-01-01

    ... For EleanorHurricane_Hazel_Interior.qxd 6/22/04 3:35 PM Page 3 HURRICANE HAZEL Canada's Storm of the Century Jim Gifford The dundurn Group Toronto * OxfordHurricane_Hazel_Interior.qxd 6/22/04 3:35...

  9. Why do Tornados and Hail Storms Rest on Weekends?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Daniel; Bell, Thomas L.

    2010-01-01

    When anthropogenic aerosols over the eastern USA during summertime are at their weekly mid-week peak, tornado and hail storm activity there is also near its weekly maximum. The weekly cycle in storm activity is statistically significant and unlikely to be due to natural variability. The pattern of variability supports the hypothesis that air pollution aerosols invigorate deep convective clouds in a moist, unstable atmosphere, to the extent of inducing production of large hailstones and tornados. This is caused by the effect of aerosols on cloud-drop nucleation, making cloud drops smaller, delaying precipitation-forming processes and their evaporation, and hence affecting cloud dynamics.

  10. Improved understanding of near-ground winds in hurricanes and tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karstens, Christopher Daniel

    Hurricanes and tornadoes contain the most destructive and life threatening winds on the planet. Combined, they are responsible for approximately $11 billion in damage in the U.S. annually. To compose a set of effective mitigation techniques, a comprehensive understanding of hurricane and tornado winds is needed. However, our understanding of these winds in the lowest 30 meters AGL, particularly their interaction with complex terrain, is lacking. This thesis includes two studies that address this issue. In the first study, a representative wind profile extracted from WRF simulations of hurricanes is used to initialize CFD modeled flow interaction with built structures using Fluent. The magnitude of structurally-induced modifications to the wind profile is presented. In the second study, recent tornado pressure and wind measurements are compared to laboratory and numerical simulations of tornado-like vortices. In addition, a comparative range of minimum pressures from a wide variety of tornadoes with different size and intensities is presented.

  11. Condensation-induced kinematics and dynamics of cyclones, hurricanes and tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarieva, A. M.; Gorshkov, V. G.

    2009-11-01

    A universal equation is obtained for air pressure and wind velocity in cyclones, hurricanes and tornadoes as dependent on the distance from the center of the considered wind pattern driven by water vapor condensation. The obtained theoretical estimates of the horizontal profiles of air pressure and wind velocity, eye and wind wall radius in hurricanes and tornadoes and maximum values of the radial, tangential and vertical velocity components are in good agreement with empirical evidence.

  12. Proposed characterization of tornadoes and hurricanes by area and intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, T. T.

    1971-01-01

    Results of the 1968 through 1970 Tornado Watch Experiment conducted jointly by NASA and NOAA suggested the necessity of characterizing individual tornadoes in order to improve the identity of tornado-producing nephsystems. An attempt was made, therefore, to categorize each tornado by its intensity and area. Fujita-scale wind and corresponding damage categories were devised to classify tornadoes as Gale (F0), Weak (F1), Strong (F2), Severe (F3), Devastating (F4), and Incredible (F5). Additionally, individual tornado areas were also categorized as Trace (TR), Decimicro (DM), Micro (MI), Meso (ME), Marco (MA), Giant (GI), and Decagiant (DG), thus permitting characterizing of a tornado by a combination of intensity and area, such as weak decimicro tornado, severe meso tornado, or incredible giant tornado. A test characterization of 156 Japanese tornadoes in 1950-69 was accomplished for comparison with 893 U.S. tornadoes in 1965. Unexpectedly, the percentage distribution of intensity and individual area of U.S. and Japanese tornadoes is very similar except for large and/or intense ones. Intensity distribution within the Dallas and Fargo tornadoes of 1957 was also studied in detail. It was also found that the F-scale variation along the paths of family tornadoes shows an intensity oscillation with a 45-min interval.

  13. Buoyancy and shear characteristics of hurricane-tornado environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccaul, Eugene W., Jr.

    1991-01-01

    This study presents detailed composite profiles of temperature, moisture, and wind constructed for tornado environments in tropical cyclones that affected the U.S. between 1948 and 1986. Winds are composited in components radial and tangential to the tropical cyclone center at observation time. Guided by observed patterns of tornado occurrence, composites are constructed for a variety of different stratifications of the data, including proximity to tornadoes, position relative to the cyclone center, time of day, time after cyclone landfall, cyclone translation speed, and landfall location. The composites are also compared to composite soundings from Great Plains tornado environments. A variety of sounding parameters are examined to see which are most closely related to the tornado distribution patterns. Lower-tropospheric vertical shears are found to be stronger in the tropical cyclone tornado environments than on the Great Plains. Buoyancy for the tropical cyclone tornado cases is much smaller than that seen with Great Plains tornado events and exhibits a weak negative correlation with tornado outbreak severity.

  14. Post-disaster climatology for hurricanes and tornadoes in the United States: 2000-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eakins, Benjamin James

    Natural disasters can be very devastating to the public during their impact phase. After a natural disaster impacts a region, the response and recovery phases begin immediately. Weather conditions may interrupt emergency response and recovery in the days following the disaster. This study analyzes the climatology of weather conditions during the response and recovery phases of hurricanes and tornadoes to understand how weather may impact both environment and societal needs. Using specific criteria, 66 tornadoes and 16 hurricane cases were defined. National Weather Service (NWS) recognized weather stations were used to provide temperature, precipitation, snowfall, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction data. Regional and temporal groups were defined for tornado cases, but only one group was defined for hurricanes. By applying statistical analysis to weather observations taken in the week following the disasters, a climatology was developed for the response and recovery phase. Tornado and hurricane post-disaster climate closely mimicked their synoptic climatology with cooler and drier weather prevailing in days 2-4 after a disaster until the next weather system arrived about 5 days later. Winter tornadoes trended to occur in the Southeast and were associated with more extreme temperature differences than in other regions and season. The results of this study may help governmental and non-governmental organizations prepare for weather conditions during the post-disaster phase.

  15. Daily variation in natural disaster casualties: information flows, safety, and opportunity costs in tornado versus hurricane strikes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahran, Sammy; Tavani, Daniele; Weiler, Stephan

    2013-07-01

    Casualties from natural disasters may depend on the day of the week they strike. With data from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS), daily variation in hurricane and tornado casualties from 5,043 tornado and 2,455 hurricane time/place events is analyzed. Hurricane forecasts provide at-risk populations with considerable lead time. Such lead time allows strategic behavior in choosing protective measures under hurricane threat; opportunity costs in terms of lost income are higher during weekdays than during weekends. On the other hand, the lead time provided by tornadoes is near zero; hence tornados generate no opportunity costs. Tornado casualties are related to risk information flows, which are higher during workdays than during leisure periods, and are related to sheltering-in-place opportunities, which are better in permanent buildings like businesses and schools. Consistent with theoretical expectations, random effects negative binomial regression results indicate that tornado events occurring on the workdays of Monday through Thursday are significantly less lethal than tornados that occur on weekends. In direct contrast, and also consistent with theory, the expected count of hurricane casualties increases significantly with weekday occurrences. The policy implications of observed daily variation in tornado and hurricane events are considered. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Insights into Tornadoes and Hurricanes from High-Resolution Numerical Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, G. H.; Cione, J.; Dahl, N.; Kalina, E.; Lundquist, J. K.; Nolan, D. S.; Rotunno, R.; Stern, D. P.; Worsnop, R.

    2016-12-01

    Comprehensive measurements of wind speed in tornadoes and hurricanes are rare because these phenomena are infrequent, turbulent, and (of course) very hazardous. However, detailed knowledge of the distribution of winds would be useful for a variety of applications such as structural engineering, societal awareness, and weather forecasting. To help fill in gaps in this knowledge, numerical model simulations can play a crucial role. The NCAR Yellowstone supercomputer has been used to conduct idealized simulations of tornadoes and hurricanes with grid spacing as small as 1 m. The simulations provide insight into the maximum wind speeds that may be possible in nature and provide guidance for interpreting present-day and future observational platforms. To this end, we have built code into a numerical model to produce "mock" observational datasets from hypothetical airplanes, dropsondes, and instrumented towers. Results are currently being used to help design offshore wind turbines, evaluate tornado intercept strategies, and develop flight paths for unmanned aerial systems.

  17. Mapping Hurricane Rita inland storm tide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berenbrock, Charles; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Blanchard, Stephen F.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

    2009-01-01

    Flood-inundation data are most useful for decision makers when presented in the context of maps of effected communities and (or) areas. But because the data are scarce and rarely cover the full extent of the flooding, interpolation and extrapolation of the information are needed. Many geographic information systems (GIS) provide various interpolation tools, but these tools often ignore the effects of the topographic and hydraulic features that influence flooding. A barrier mapping method was developed to improve maps of storm tide produced by Hurricane Rita. Maps were developed for the maximum storm tide and at 3-hour intervals from midnight (0000 hour) through noon (1200 hour) on September 24, 2005. The improved maps depict storm-tide elevations and the extent of flooding. The extent of storm-tide inundation from the improved maximum storm-tide map was compared to the extent of flood-inundation from a map prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The boundaries from these two maps generally compared quite well especially along the Calcasieu River. Also a cross-section profile that parallels the Louisiana coast was developed from the maximum storm-tide map and included FEMA high-water marks.

  18. Storm Data Publication

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 'Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena' is a monthly publication containing a chronological listing, by state, of hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail,...

  19. Mapping and Visualization of Storm-Surge Dynamics for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesch, Dean B.

    2009-01-01

    The damages caused by the storm surges from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were significant and occurred over broad areas. Storm-surge maps are among the most useful geospatial datasets for hurricane recovery, impact assessments, and mitigation planning for future storms. Surveyed high-water marks were used to generate a maximum storm-surge surface for Hurricane Katrina extending from eastern Louisiana to Mobile Bay, Alabama. The interpolated surface was intersected with high-resolution lidar elevation data covering the study area to produce a highly detailed digital storm-surge inundation map. The storm-surge dataset and related data are available for display and query in a Web-based viewer application. A unique water-level dataset from a network of portable pressure sensors deployed in the days just prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall captured the hurricane's storm surge. The recorded sensor data provided water-level measurements with a very high temporal resolution at surveyed point locations. The resulting dataset was used to generate a time series of storm-surge surfaces that documents the surge dynamics in a new, spatially explicit way. The temporal information contained in the multiple storm-surge surfaces can be visualized in a number of ways to portray how the surge interacted with and was affected by land surface features. Spatially explicit storm-surge products can be useful for a variety of hurricane impact assessments, especially studies of wetland and land changes where knowledge of the extent and magnitude of storm-surge flooding is critical.

  20. After the storm: personal experiences following an EF4 tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Olivia W; Bigham, Amy B

    2012-08-01

    In April of 2011, an EF4 tornado ripped through the city of Tuscaloosa, AL, leaving in its wake thousands of destroyed homes and businesses. In the hours and days that followed, the health care community of this city, as well as the entire state of Alabama and the southeastern United States, came together to provide care to hundreds of victims, recovery workers, and volunteers. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... spawn tornadoes and lead to flooding. The high winds and heavy rains can destroy buildings, roads and bridges, and knock down power lines and trees. In coastal areas, very high tides called storm ...

  2. The 2008 Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak: Synthetic Dual Doppler Analysis of Contrasting Tornadic Storm Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knupp, Kevin R.; Coleman, Timothy; Carey, Larry; Peterson, Walt; Elkins, Calvin

    2008-01-01

    During the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak on 5-6 February, a significant number of storms passed within about 40 km of WSR-88D radars. This distance, combined with the significant motion vector (from the southwest at 20-25 m per second) of relatively steady storms, is amenable to a synthetic dual Doppler analysis during the times when the storms passed the WSR-88D locations. Nine storms will be analyzed using the SDD technique. The following table provides their general characteristics and nearest approach to the 88D radars. For this data set, storm structure ranges from isolated supercell to QLCS. Each storm will be analyzed for a 40-60 min period during passage by the WSR-88D radar to determine general storm properties. Analysis of high-resolution single Doppler data around the time of passage (plus or minus 30 min), combined with 1-2 SDD analyses, will be used to examine the kinematic structure of low-level circulations (e.g., mesocyclone, downdraft) and the relation to the parent storm. This analysis may provide insights on the fundamental differences between cyclonic circulations in supercell storms and those within QCLS's.

  3. Risk Assessment of Hurricane Storm Surge for Tampa Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

    2011-12-01

    Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States and many other coastal areas around the world. Risk assessment of current and future hurricane storm surge provides the basis for risk mitigation and related decision making. This study investigates the hurricane surge risk for Tampa Bay, located on the central west coast of Florida. Although fewer storms have made landfall in the central west Florida than in regions farther west in the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of U.S., Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge due to its geophysical features. It is surrounded by low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. Also, edge waves trapped on the west Florida shelf can propagate along the coastline and affect the sea level outside the area of a forced storm surge; Tampa Bay may be affected by storms traversing some distance outside the Bay. Moreover, when the propagation speed of the edge wave is close to that of a storm moving parallel to the coast, resonance may occur and the water elevation in the Bay may be greatly enhanced. Therefore, Tampa Bay is vulnerable to storms with a broad spectrum of characteristics. We apply a model-based risk assessment method to carry out the investigation. To estimate the current surge risk, we apply a statistical/deterministic hurricane model to generate a set of 1500 storms for the Tampa area, under the observed current climate (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) estimated from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. To study the effect of climate change, we use four climate models, CNRM-CM3, ECHAM, GFDL-CM2.0, and MIROC3.2, respectively, to drive the hurricane model to generate four sets of 1500 Tampa storms under current climate conditions (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) and another four under future climate conditions of the IPCC-AR4 A1B emission scenario (represented by 2081-2100 statistics). Then, we apply two hydrodynamic models, the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model and the Sea

  4. Tornado Chasing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faidley, Warren

    1991-01-01

    Presents the rationale and purposes behind the phenomenon known as storm chasing, as well as the contributions that tornado chasers have made to both scientific knowledge and public safety. Provides statistical information on tornado frequencies and locations and contact addresses for storm chasers. (JJK)

  5. Rapid Response Measurements of Hurricane Waves and Storm Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravois, U.

    2010-12-01

    Andrew (1992), Katrina (2005), and Ike (2008) are recent examples of extensive damage that resulted from direct hurricane landfall. Some of the worst damages from these hurricanes are caused by wind driven waves and storm surge flooding. The potential for more hurricane disasters like these continues to increase as a result of population growth and real estate development in low elevation coastal regions. Observational measurements of hurricane waves and storm surge play an important role in future mitigation efforts, yet permanent wave buoy moorings and tide stations are more sparse than desired. This research has developed a rapid response method using helicopters to install temporary wave and surge gauges ahead of hurricane landfall. These temporary installations, with target depths from 10-15 m and 1-7 km offshore depending on the local shelf slope, increase the density of measurement points where the worst conditions are expected. The method has progressed to an operational state and has successfully responded to storms Ernesto (2006), Noel (2007), Fay (2008), Gustav (2008), Hanna (2008) and Ike (2008). The temporary gauges are pressure data loggers that measure at 1 Hz continuously for 12 days and are post-processed to extract surge and wave information. For the six storms studied, 45 out of 49 sensors were recovered by boat led scuba diver search teams, with 43 providing useful data for an 88 percent success rate. As part of the 20 sensor Hurricane Gustav response, sensors were also deployed in lakes and bays inLouisiana, east of the Mississippi river delta. Gustav was the largest deployment to date. Generally efforts were scaled back for storms that were not anticipated to be highly destructive. For example, the cumulative total of sensors deployed for Ernesto, Noel, Fay and Hanna was only 20. Measurement locations for Gustav spanned over 800 km of exposed coastline from Louisiana to Florida with sensors in close proximity to landfall near Cocodrie

  6. Weathering the storm: hurricanes and birth outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Janet; Rossin-Slater, Maya

    2013-05-01

    A growing literature suggests that stressful events in pregnancy can have negative effects on birth outcomes. Some of the estimates in this literature may be affected by small samples, omitted variables, endogenous mobility in response to disasters, and errors in the measurement of gestation, as well as by a mechanical correlation between longer gestation and the probability of having been exposed. We use millions of individual birth records to examine the effects of exposure to hurricanes during pregnancy, and the sensitivity of the estimates to these econometric problems. We find that exposure to a hurricane during pregnancy increases the probability of abnormal conditions of the newborn such as being on a ventilator more than 30min and meconium aspiration syndrome (MAS). Although we are able to reproduce previous estimates of effects on birth weight and gestation, our results suggest that measured effects of stressful events on these outcomes are sensitive to specification and it is preferable to use more sensitive indicators of newborn health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Monitoring Inland Storm Surge and Flooding from Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

    2006-01-01

    Pressure transducers (sensors) and high-water marks were used to document the inland water levels related to storm surge generated by Hurricane Rita in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. On September 22-23, 2005, an experimental monitoring network of sensors was deployed at 33 sites over an area of about 4,000 square miles to record the timing, extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding. Sensors were programmed to record date and time, temperature, and barometric or water pressure. Water pressure was corrected for changes in barometric pressure and salinity. Elevation surveys using global-positioning systems and differential levels were used to relate all storm-surge water-level data, reference marks, benchmarks, sensor measuring points, and high-water marks to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). The resulting data indicated that storm-surge water levels over 14 feet above NAVD 88 occurred at three locations, and rates of water-level rise greater than 5 feet per hour occurred at three locations near the Louisiana coast.

  8. Effect of hurricanes and violent storms on salt marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, N.; Ganju, N. K.; Fagherazzi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  9. Climatology of landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jauregui, E. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM), Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2003-10-01

    The potential for damage from hurricanes landfalling in Mexico is assessed. During the 1951-2000 period, Pacific hurricane hits were more frequent on coastal areas of the northwest of country (e.g., Sinaloa and the southern half of Baja California Peninsula) as well as in southern Mexico (Michoacan). On the Atlantic side, the Yucatan Peninsula and the northern state of Tamaulipas were most exposed to these storms. The hurricane season reaches maximum activity in September for both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the country. During the 50 year period, five intense hurricanes (category 5) made landfall on the Gulf/Caribbean coasts, while only one such intense hurricane made a land hit on the Pacific side. While hurricanes affecting Pacific coasts show a marked increase during the last decade, those of the Atlantic side exhibit a marked decrease since the 1970s. However, when considering the frequency of landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes impacting on both littorals of the country, their numbers have considerably increased during the 1990s. [Spanish] Se determino el potencial de dano de los huracanes que entran a tierra en Mexico. Durante el periodo 1951-2000 los impactos de los huracanes del Pacifico fueron mas frecuentes en las areas costeras del noroeste del pais, como Sinaloa y la mitad sur de la peninsula de Baja California, asi como en el sur de Mexico (Michoacan). En el lado del Atlantico la peninsula de Yucatan y el estado norteno de Tamaulipas fueron los mas expuestos a estas tormentas. Para las dos costas del pais, del Pacifico y del Atlantico, la temporada de huracanes alcanza su maxima actividad en septiembre. Durante los 50 anos del periodo de estudio cinco huracanes intensos (categoria 5) tocaron tierra en el lado del Atlantico y uno en el Pacifico. Mientras que los huracanes que afectan las costas del Pacifico muestran un incremento en numero durante la ultima decada, los del Atlantico exhiben una disminucion notable desde la decada de los

  10. Hurricane Isaac: A Longitudinal Analysis of Storm Characteristics and Power Outage Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D; Ferreira, Celso M; Quiring, Steven M

    2016-10-01

    In August 2012, Hurricane Isaac, a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, caused extensive power outages in Louisiana. The storm brought high winds, storm surge, and flooding to Louisiana, and power outages were widespread and prolonged. Hourly power outage data for the state of Louisiana were collected during the storm and analyzed. This analysis included correlation of hourly power outage figures by zip code with storm conditions including wind, rainfall, and storm surge using a nonparametric ensemble data mining approach. Results were analyzed to understand how correlation of power outages with storm conditions differed geographically within the state. This analysis provided insight on how rainfall and storm surge, along with wind, contribute to power outages in hurricanes. By conducting a longitudinal study of outages at the zip code level, we were able to gain insight into the causal drivers of power outages during hurricanes. Our analysis showed that the statistical importance of storm characteristic covariates to power outages varies geographically. For Hurricane Isaac, wind speed, precipitation, and previous outages generally had high importance, whereas storm surge had lower importance, even in zip codes that experienced significant surge. The results of this analysis can inform the development of power outage forecasting models, which often focus strictly on wind-related covariates. Our study of Hurricane Isaac indicates that inclusion of other covariates, particularly precipitation, may improve model accuracy and robustness across a range of storm conditions and geography.

  11. High Resolution Hurricane Storm Surge and Inundation Modeling (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luettich, R.; Westerink, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Coastal counties are home to nearly 60% of the U.S. population and industry that accounts for over 16 million jobs and 10% of the U.S. annual gross domestic product. However, these areas are susceptible to some of the most destructive forces in nature, including tsunamis, floods, and severe storm-related hazards. Since 1900, tropical cyclones making landfall on the US Gulf of Mexico Coast have caused more than 9,000 deaths; nearly 2,000 deaths have occurred during the past half century. Tropical cyclone-related adjusted, annualized losses in the US have risen from 1.3 billion from 1949-1989, to 10.1 billion from 1990-1995, and $35.8 billion per year for the period 2001-2005. The risk associated with living and doing business in the coastal areas that are most susceptible to tropical cyclones is exacerbated by rising sea level and changes in the characteristics of severe storms associated with global climate change. In the five years since hurricane Katrina devastated the northern Gulf of Mexico Coast, considerable progress has been made in the development and utilization of high resolution coupled storm surge and wave models. Recent progress will be presented with the ADCIRC + SWAN storm surge and wave models. These tightly coupled models use a common unstructured grid in the horizontal that is capable of covering large areas while also providing high resolution (i.e., base resolution down to 20m plus smaller subgrid scale features such as sea walls and levees) in areas that are subject to surge and inundation. Hydrodynamic friction and overland winds are adjusted to account for local land cover. The models scale extremely well on modern high performance computers allowing rapid turnaround on large numbers of compute cores. The models have been adopted for FEMA National Flood Insurance Program studies, hurricane protection system design and risk analysis, and quasi-operational forecast systems for several regions of the country. They are also being evaluated as

  12. Autism Prevalence Following Prenatal Exposure to Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, Dennis K.; Miller, Andrea M.; Crowley, David J.; Huang, Emerald; Gerber, Erika

    2008-01-01

    Hurricanes and tropical storms served as natural experiments for investigating whether autism is associated with exposure to stressful events during sensitive periods of gestation. Weather service data identified severe storms in Louisiana from 1980 to 1995 and parishes hit by storm centers during this period. Autism prevalences in different…

  13. Monitoring Hurricane Rita Inland Storm Surge: Chapter 7J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Goree, Burl B.

    2007-01-01

    Pressure transducers (sensors) are accurate, reliable, and cost-effective tools to measure and record the magnitude, extent, and timing of hurricane storm surge. Sensors record storm-surge peaks more accurately and reliably than do high-water marks. Data collected by sensors may be used in storm-surge models to estimate when, where, and to what degree stormsurge flooding will occur during future storm-surge events and to calibrate and verify stormsurge models, resulting in a better understanding of the dynamics of storm surge.

  14. The Impact of the Storm-Induced SST Cooling on Hurricane Intensity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The effects of storm-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling on hurricane intensity are investigated using a 5-day cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Two sensitivity simulations are performed in which the storm-induced cooling is either ignored or shifted close to the modeled storm track. Results show marked sensitivity of the model-simulated storm intensity to the magnitude and relative position with respect to the hurricane track. It is shown that incorporation of the storm-induced cooling, with an average value of 1.3℃, causes a 25-hPa weakening of the hurricane, which is about 20hPa per 1℃ change in SST. Shifting the SST cooling close to the storm track generates the weakest storm,accounting for about 47% reduction in the storm intensity. It is found that the storm intensity changes are well correlated with the air-sea temperature difference. The results have important implications for the use of coupled hurricane-ocean models for numerical prediction of tropical cyclones.

  15. Effect of hurricane paths on storm surge response at Tianjin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xingru; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou

    2012-06-01

    A hurricane induced storm surge simulation system was developed for Tianjin coast, which consists of a hurricane model and a storm surge model. The peak storm surge result of the simulation agreed well with that of the observation. Three observed paths (Rita, Mimie and WINNIE) and a hypothetical path (Rita2) were chosen as the selective hurricane paths according to their positions relative to Tianjin. The sensitivity of Tianjin storm surge to the four paths was investigated using the validated storm surge simulation system. Three groups of experiments were done. In group one, the models were forced by the wind field and air pressure; in group two and three the models were forced by the wind only and the air pressure only respectively. In the experiments, the hurricane moved with a fixed speed and an intensity of 50 year return period. The simulation results show that path of the type Rita2 is the easiest to cause storm surge disaster in Tianjin, and the effect of air pressure forcing is most evident for path of the type Rita in Tianjin storm surge process. The above conclusions were analyzed through the evolution of the wind fields and the air pressure distributions. Comparing the experiment results of Group one, two and three, it can be seen that the storm surge is mainly induced by the wind forcing and the nonlinear interaction between the effect of wind forcing and air pressure forcing on the storm surge tends to weaken the storm surge.

  16. Linkage of Rainfall-Runoff and Hurricane Storm Surge in Galveston Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deitz, R.; Christian, J.; Wright, G.; Fang, N.; Bedient, P.

    2012-12-01

    In conjunction with the SSPEED Center, large rainfall events in the upper Gulf of Mexico are being studied in an effort to help design a surge gate to protect the Houston Ship Channel during hurricane events. The ship channel is the world's second largest petrochemical complex and the Coast Guard estimates that a one-month closure would have a $60 billion dollar impact on the national economy. In this effort, statistical design storms, such as the 24-hour PMP, as well as historical storms, like Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Katrina, and Hurricane Rita, are being simulated in a hydrologic/hydraulic model using radar and rain gauge data. VfloTM, a distributed hydrologic model, is being used to quantify the effect that storm size, intensity, and location has on timing and peak flows in the in the upper drainage area. These hydrographs were input to a hydraulic model with various storm surges from Galveston Bay. Results indicate that there is a double peak phenomenon with flows from the west draining days earlier than flows from the north. With storm surge typically lasting 36-48 hours, this indicates the flows from the west are interacting with the storm surge, whereas flows from the north would arrive once the storm surge is receding. Gate operations were optimized in the model to account for the relative timing of upland runoff and hurricane surge, and to quantify the capability of the gate structure to protect the Ship Channel industry.

  17. Tropical storm and hurricane recovery and preparedness strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Bradford S; Donaho, John C

    2010-01-01

    The goal of this article is to present lessons learned from the devastating effects of two specific natural disasters in Texas: Tropical Storm Allison, which flooded Houston in June 2001, and Hurricane Ike, which caused severe damage in Galveston in September 2008. When a disaster is predictable, good predisaster planning can help to save animals lives. However, as disasters are usually not predictable and tend not to follow a script, that plan needs to be easily adaptable and flexible. It should address all aspects of the program and include an evacuation strategy for the animals, data backup, and identification of emergency equipment such as generators and communication systems. Media communication must also be considered as the general public may become emotional about animal-related issues; adverse attention and public scrutiny can be expected if animals die. The psychological impact of the disaster on the lives of those it directly affects may require attention and accommodation in the postdisaster recovery period. Following an overview of each disaster we describe plans for recovery, impacts on research, business continuity programs, and planning and preparation strategies developed against future natural disasters. Long-term planning includes building design as an important factor in protecting both the animals and the research equipment. Lessons learned include successful responses, evaluation for improvements, and preparedness plans and procedures to guard against future disaster-related destruction or loss of facilities, research programs, and animal lives.

  18. Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Butler, T.

    2012-07-01

    Accurate, real-time forecasting of coastal inundation due to hurricanes and tropical storms is a challenging computational problem requiring high-fidelity forward models of currents and water levels driven by hurricane-force winds. Despite best efforts in computational modeling there will always be uncertainty in storm surge forecasts. In recent years, there has been significant instrumentation located along the coastal United States for the purpose of collecting data—specifically wind, water levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the use of ensemble Kalman filters and the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model is described. The singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter has been shown to be effective at producing accurate results for ocean models using small ensemble sizes initialized by an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The SEIK filter is applied to the ADCIRC model to improve storm surge forecasting, particularly in capturing maximum water levels (high water marks) and the timing of the surge. Two test cases of data obtained from hindcast studies of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina are presented. It is shown that a modified SEIK filter with an inflation factor improves the accuracy of coarse-resolution forecasts of storm surge resulting from hurricanes. Furthermore, the SEIK filter requires only modest computational resources to obtain more accurate forecasts of storm surge in a constrained time window where forecasters must interact with emergency responders.

  19. A high resolution study of a hurricane storm surge and inundation in Veracruz, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz García, Ovel; Zavala Hidalgo, Jorge; Douillet, Pascal

    2014-05-01

    Veracruz is the most populated city along the Mexican shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and also is the country's largest commercial port. In recent years the city has been affected by hurricanes of medium intensity that have provoked human casualties, property damaged and economic loss. Two of the most recent events were hurricane Karl (2010), which caused a storm surge and severe flooding, and hurricane Ernesto (2012). The purpose of this work is to study, based on high-resolution numerical simulations, scenarios of storm surge flooding using state-of-the-art open source numerical models: the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF), and the coupled models ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) for weather and storm surge hindcast, respectively. We also use topography high resolution data from LIDAR and bathymetry from GEBCO 30", the Mexican Navy and nautical charts from Electrical Federal Commission. We present the validation of the models evaluating several statistical parameters against measurements from Acoustic Data Current Profilers, pressure sensors, tide gauge and meteorological stations for these events. In the case of hurricane Karl, it made landfall 15 km north of Veracruz City, reducing the maximum surge along the city shoreline. The hurricane Ernesto made landfall 200 km southeast of the city, too far to have a significant impact. We did some numerical experiments slightly changing the trajectory, reported by the best track data, for these two hurricanes with the purpose of evaluating storm surge scenarios. The results shows that the worst storm surge cases were when the tracks of this hurricanes made landfall south of the city in the range of 30 to 60 km.

  20. Power Scaling of the Size Distribution of Economic Loss and Fatalities due to Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Tornadoes, and Floods in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebbens, S. F.; Barton, C. C.; Scott, B. E.

    2016-12-01

    Traditionally, the size of natural disaster events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods is measured in terms of wind speed (m/sec), energy released (ergs), or discharge (m3/sec) rather than by economic loss or fatalities. Economic loss and fatalities from natural disasters result from the intersection of the human infrastructure and population with the size of the natural event. This study investigates the size versus cumulative number distribution of individual natural disaster events for several disaster types in the United States. Economic losses are adjusted for inflation to 2014 USD. The cumulative number divided by the time over which the data ranges for each disaster type is the basis for making probabilistic forecasts in terms of the number of events greater than a given size per year and, its inverse, return time. Such forecasts are of interest to insurers/re-insurers, meteorologists, seismologists, government planners, and response agencies. Plots of size versus cumulative number distributions per year for economic loss and fatalities are well fit by power scaling functions of the form p(x) = Cx-β; where, p(x) is the cumulative number of events with size equal to and greater than size x, C is a constant, the activity level, x is the event size, and β is the scaling exponent. Economic loss and fatalities due to hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods are well fit by power functions over one to five orders of magnitude in size. Economic losses for hurricanes and tornadoes have greater scaling exponents, β = 1.1 and 0.9 respectively, whereas earthquakes and floods have smaller scaling exponents, β = 0.4 and 0.6 respectively. Fatalities for tornadoes and floods have greater scaling exponents, β = 1.5 and 1.7 respectively, whereas hurricanes and earthquakes have smaller scaling exponents, β = 0.4 and 0.7 respectively. The scaling exponents can be used to make probabilistic forecasts for time windows ranging from 1 to 1000 years

  1. Cumulative impacts of hurricanes on Florida mangrove ecosystems: Sediment deposition, storm surges and vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, T. J.; Anderson, G.H.; Balentine, K.; Tiling, G.; Ward, G.A.; Whelan, K.R.T.

    2009-01-01

    Hurricanes have shaped the structure of mangrove forests in the Everglades via wind damage, storm surges and sediment deposition. Immediate effects include changes to stem size-frequency distributions and to species relative abundance and density. Long-term impacts to mangroves are poorly understood at present. We examine impacts of Hurricane Wilma on mangroves and compare the results to findings from three previous storms (Labor Day, Donna, Andrew). Surges during Wilma destroyed ??? 1,250 ha of mangroves and set back recovery that started following Andrew. Data from permanent plots affected by Andrew and Wilma showed no differences among species or between hurricanes for stem mortality or basal area lost. Hurricane damage was related to hydro-geomorphic type of forest. Basin mangroves suffered significantly more damage than riverine or island mangroves. The hurricane by forest type interaction was highly significant. Andrew did slightly more damage to island mangroves. Wilma did significantly more damage to basin forests. This is most likely a result of the larger and more spatially extensive storm surge produced by Wilma. Forest damage was not related to amount of sediment deposited. Analyses of reports from Donna and the Labor Day storm indicate that some sites have recovered following catastrophic disturbance. Other sites have been permanently converted into a different ecosystem, namely intertidal mudflats. Our results indicate that mangroves are not in a steady state as has been recently claimed. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

  2. Hurricane & Tropical Storm Impacts over the South Florida Metropolitan Area: Mortality & Government

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colon Pagan, I. C.

    2007-12-01

    Since 1985, the South Florida Metropolitan area (SFMA), which covers the counties of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, has been directly affected by 9 tropical cyclones: four tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. This continuous hurricane and tropical storm activity has awakened the conscience of the communities, government, and private sector, about the social vulnerability, in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, and others. Several factors have also been significant enough to affect the vulnerability of the South Florida Metropolitan area, like its geographic location which is at the western part of the Atlantic hurricane track, with a surface area of 6,137 square miles, and elevation of 15 feet. And second, from the 2006 Census estimate, this metropolitan area is the 7th most populous area in the United States supporting almost 1,571 individuals per square mile. Mortality levels due to hurricanes and tropical storms have fluctuated over the last 21 years without any signal of a complete reduction, a phenomenon that can be related to both physical characteristics of the storms and government actions. The average annual death count remains almost the same from 4.10 between 1985 and 1995 to 4 from 1996 to 2006. However, the probability of occurrence of a direct impact of an atmospheric disturbance has increase from 0.3 to 0.6, with an average of three hurricane or tropical storm direct impacts for every five. This analysis suggests an increasing problem with regard to atmospheric disturbances-related deaths in the South Florida Metropolitan area. In other words, despite substantial increases in population during the last 21 years, the number of tropical cyclone-related deaths is not declining; it's just being segregated among more storms. Gaps between each impact can be related to mortality levels. When that time increases in five years or more, such as Bob and Andrew or Irene and Katrina, or decreases in weeks or months, such as Harvey and Irene or Katrina and Wilma

  3. The value of wetlands in protecting southeast louisiana from hurricane storm surges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward B Barbier

    Full Text Available The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.

  4. A tale of two storms: Surges and sediment deposition from Hurricanes Andrew and Wilma in Florida’s southwest coast mangrove forests: Chapter 6G in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Thomas J.; Anderson, Gordon H.; Tiling, Ginger

    2007-01-01

    Hurricanes can be very different from each other. Here we examine the impacts that two hurricanes, Andrew and Wilma, had in terms of storm surge and sediment deposition on the southwest coast of Florida. Although Wilma was the weaker storm, it had the greater impact. Wilma had the higher storm surge over a larger area and deposited more sediment than did Andrew. This effect was most likely due to the size of Wilma's eye, which was four times larger than that of Andrew.

  5. Mitigation of hurricane storm surge impacts: Modeling scenarios over wide continental shelves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima Rego, Joao; Li, Chunyan

    2010-05-01

    The improvement of present understanding of surge dynamics over wide and shallow shelves is vital for the improvement of our ability to forecast storm surge impacts to coastal regions, particularly the low-lying land areas that are most vulnerable to hurricane flooding (e.g. the Northern Gulf of Mexico, coastal Bangladesh, the Southeast China sea). Given the increase of global sea-surface temperature, both the total number and proportion of intense tropical cyclones have increased notably since 1970 (Emanuel, 2005; Nature). Therefore, more intense hurricanes may hit densely populated coastal regions, and this problem may be aggravated by the prospect of accelerated sea-level rise in the 21st century. This presentation offers a review of recent work on hurricane-induced storm surge. The finite-volume coastal ocean model ("FVCOM", by Chen et al., 2003; J. Atmos. Ocean Tech.) was applied to the storm surge induced by Hurricanes Rita and Ike along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas in 2005 and 2008, respectively, to study coastal storm surge dynamics. The sensitivity analysis of Rego and Li (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett.) demonstrated how stronger, wider or faster tropical cyclones would affect coastal flooding. Li, Weeks and Rego (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett) looked into how hurricane flooding and receding dynamics differ, concluding that the overland flow in the latter stage is of considerable importance. Rego and Li (2010; J. Geophys. Res.) showed how extreme events may result of a combination of non-extreme factors, by studying the nonlinear interaction of tide and hurricane surge. The ability of models to reproduce these extreme events and to proactive plan for damage reduction is covered in Rego and Li's (2010; J. Marine Syst.) study of how barrier island systems protect coastal bays from offshore surge propagation. Here we combine these results for a wider perspective on how hurricane flooding could be mitigated under changing conditions.

  6. Dependency of U.S. Hurricane Economic Loss on Maximum Wind Speed and Storm Size

    CERN Document Server

    Zhai, Alice R

    2014-01-01

    Many empirical hurricane economic loss models consider only wind speed and neglect storm size. These models may be inadequate in accurately predicting the losses of super-sized storms, such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012. In this study, we examined the dependencies of normalized U.S. hurricane loss on both wind speed and storm size for 73 tropical cyclones that made landfall in the U.S. from 1988 to 2012. A multi-variate least squares regression is used to construct a hurricane loss model using both wind speed and size as predictors. Using maximum wind speed and size together captures more variance of losses than using wind speed or size alone. It is found that normalized hurricane loss (L) approximately follows a power law relation with maximum wind speed (Vmax) and size (R). Assuming L=10^c Vmax^a R^b, c being a scaling factor, the coefficients, a and b, generally range between 4-12 and 2-4, respectively. Both a and b tend to increase with stronger wind speed. For large losses, a weighted regression model, with...

  7. Impacts of land cover changes on hurricane storm surge in the lower Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denton, M.; Lawler, S.; Ferreira, C.

    2013-12-01

    The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States with more than 150 rivers draining into the bay's tidal wetlands. Coastal wetlands and vegetation play an important role in shaping the hydrodynamics of storm surge events by retaining water and slowing the propagation of storm surge. In this way coastal wetlands act as a natural barrier to inland flooding, particularly against less intense storms. Threats to wetlands come from both land development (residential or commercial/industrial) and sea level rise. The lower region of the Chesapeake Bay near its outlet is especially vulnerable to flooding from Atlantic storm surge brought in by hurricanes, tropical storms and nor'easters (e.g., hurricanes Isabel [2003] and Sandy [2012]). This region is also intensely developed with nearly 1.7 million residents within the greater Hampton Roads metropolitan area. Anthropogenic changes to land cover in the lower bay can directly impact basin drainage and storm surge propagation with impacts reaching beyond the immediate coastal zone to affect flooding in inland areas. While construction of seawall barriers around population centers may provide storm surge protection to a specifically defined area, these barriers deflect storm surge rather than attenuate it, underscoring the importance of wetlands. To analyze these impacts a framework was developed combining numerical simulations with a detailed hydrodynamic characterization of flow through coastal wetland areas. Storm surges were calculated using a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) coupled to a wave model (SWAN) forced by an asymmetric hurricane vortex model using the FEMA region 3 unstructured mesh (2.3 million nodes) under a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. Multiple model simulations were performed using historical hurricanes data and hypothetical storms to compare the predicted storm surge inundation with various levels of wetland reduction and/or beach hardening. These data were combined and overlaid

  8. Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike waves, forerunner, and storm surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hope, M.E.; Westerink, J.J.; Kennedy, A.B.; Kerr, P.C.; Dietrich, J.C.; Dawson, C.; Bender, C.J.; Smith, J.M.; Jensen, R.E.; Zijlema, M.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Luettich, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Cardone, V.J.; Cox, A.T.; Pourtaheri, H.; Roberts, H.J.; Atkinson, J.H.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, H.J.; Westerink, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana-Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied w

  9. Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike waves, forerunner, and storm surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hope, M.E.; Westerink, J.J.; Kennedy, A.B.; Kerr, P.C.; Dietrich, J.C.; Dawson, C.; Bender, C.J.; Smith, J.M.; Jensen, R.E.; Zijlema, M.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Luettich, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Cardone, V.J.; Cox, A.T.; Pourtaheri, H.; Roberts, H.J.; Atkinson, J.H.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, H.J.; Westerink, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana-Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied w

  10. Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike waves, forerunner, and storm surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hope, M.E.; Westerink, J.J.; Kennedy, A.B.; Kerr, P.C.; Dietrich, J.C.; Dawson, C.; Bender, C.J.; Smith, J.M.; Jensen, R.E.; Zijlema, M.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Luettich, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Cardone, V.J.; Cox, A.T.; Pourtaheri, H.; Roberts, H.J.; Atkinson, J.H.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, H.J.; Westerink, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana-Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied

  11. Weather Advisory: Tornados | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summer months carry the threat of severe storms and tornados in our area. Take a few moments to consider how well you are prepared in the event of a tornado warning. The time to prepare for a tornado is before it happens. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides information on how to prepare and what to do in the event of a tornado. Take a few moments to read the important safety information FEMA has assembled: http://www.ready.gov/tornadoes. Sign Up for Text Alerts from Frederick County You can also sign up for text alerts to your cell phone from Frederick County at http://www.frederickcountymd.gov/ALERT.

  12. Growth modelling indicates hurricanes and severe storms are linked to low coral recruitment in the Caribbean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C; Martinez, Edwin; Garcia, Christina; Chub, Juan; Castro, Leonardo; Guy, Jason

    2008-05-01

    This study set out to test the hypothesis that hurricanes and tropical storms limit the recruitment and subsequent survival of massive non-branching corals on the barrier reef off the coast of Belize in the Gulf of Honduras. Overall, the surface areas of 523 individual coral specimens were measured, and recruitment dates were then modelled. There was no significant difference in coral cover or coral biodiversity between any of the sites studied (p > 0.1). There were significant differences in non-branching coral recruitment in years when hurricanes impacted the area (p Caribbean, and suggests that marine park managers may need to assist coral recruitment in years where there are hurricanes or severe storms.

  13. Hurricanes Karl and Tropical Storm Matthew Structure Observed by HIWRAP During GRIP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heymsfield, G. M.; Guimond, S. R.; Tian, L.

    2012-12-01

    The dual-wavelength (Ku and Ka band) High-Altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP) flew for the first time on the Global Hawk during the 2010 Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP). HIWRAP is conical scanning and Doppler, and winds and reflectivity can be mapped within the swath below the Global Hawk. Two interesting cases from the HIWRAP flights were the rapid intensification of Hurricane Karl and the intensification of Tropical Storm Matthew. This presentation will highlight the precipitation and wind structure of these storms during their intensification as derived from the HIWRAP observations. If time permits and if available, highlights from HIWRAP observations from the Hurricane Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) field campaign in September 2012 will be presented.

  14. Deriving spatial and temporal patterns of coastal marsh aggradation from hurricane storm surge marker beds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodge, Joshua; Williams, Harry

    2016-12-01

    This study uses storm surge sediment beds deposited by Hurricanes Audrey (1957), Carla (1961), Rita (2005) and Ike (2008) to investigate spatial and temporal changes in marsh sedimentation on the McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge in Southeastern Texas. Fourteen sediment cores were collected along a transect extending 1230 m inland from the Gulf coast. Storm-surge-deposited sediment beds were identified by texture, organic content, carbonate content, the presence of marine microfossils and 137Cs dating. The hurricane-derived sediment beds facilitate assessment of changes in marsh sedimentation from nearshore to inland locations and over decadal to annual timescales. Spatial variation along the transect reflects varying contributions from three prevailing sediment sources: flooding, overwash and organic sedimentation from marsh plants. Over about the last decade, hurricane overwash has been the predominant sediment source for nearshore locations because of large sediment inputs from Hurricanes Rita and Ike. Farther inland, hurricane inputs diminish and sedimentation is dominated by deposition from flood waters and a larger organic component. Temporal variations in sedimentation reflect hurricane activity, changes in marsh surface elevation and degree of compaction of marsh sediments, which is time-dependent. There was little to no marsh sedimentation in the period 2008-2014, firstly because no hurricanes impacted the study area and secondly because overwash sedimentation prior to 2008 had increased nearshore marsh surface elevations by up to 0.68 m, reducing subsequent inputs from flooding. Marsh sedimentation rates were relatively high in the period 2005-2008, averaging 2.13 cm/year and possibly reflecting sediment contributions from Hurricanes Humberto and Gustav. However, these marsh sediments are highly organic and largely uncompacted. Older, deeper marsh deposits formed between 1961 and 2005 are less organic-rich, more compacted and have an average annual

  15. Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

    2010-01-01

    Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

  16. Science and the storms: The USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farris, G. S.; Smith, G.J.; Crane, M.P.; Demas, C.R.; Robbins, L.L.; Lavoie, D.L.

    2007-01-01

    This report is designed to give a view of the immediate response of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to four major hurricanes of 2005: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Some of this response took place days after the hurricanes; other responses included fieldwork and analysis through the spring. While hurricane science continues within the USGS, this overview of work following these hurricanes reveals how a Department of the Interior bureau quickly brought together a diverse array of its scientists and technologies to assess and analyze many hurricane effects. Topics vary from flooding and water quality to landscape and ecosystem impacts, from geotechnical reconnaissance to analyzing the collapse of bridges and estimating the volume of debris. Thus, the purpose of this report is to inform the American people of the USGS science that is available and ongoing in regard to hurricanes. It is the hope that such science will help inform the decisions of those citizens and officials tasked with coastal restoration and planning for future hurricanes. Chapter 1 is an essay establishing the need for science in building a resilient coast. The second chapter includes some hurricane facts that provide hurricane terminology, history, and maps of the four hurricanes’ paths. Chapters that follow give the scientific response of USGS to the storms. Both English and metric measurements are used in the articles in anticipation of both general and scientific audiences in the United States and elsewhere. Chapter 8 is a compilation of relevant ongoing and future hurricane work. The epilogue marks the 2-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. An index of authors follows the report to aid in finding articles that are cross-referenced within the report. In addition to performing the science needed to understand the effects of hurricanes, USGS employees helped in the rescue of citizens by boat and through technology by “geoaddressing” 911 calls after Katrina and Rita so that other

  17. Observations and analyses of upper ocean responses to tropical storms and hurricanes in the vicinity of Bermuda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, W. J.; Dickey, T. D.

    2008-08-01

    A circular region within a radius of 400 km of Bermuda has been struck by 188 tropical storms or hurricanes from 1851 through 2005 and by 20 since 1995. Here we describe new direct and remote sensing observations and analyses of recent events near the Bermuda Testbed Mooring including Hurricane Fabian (2003), Tropical Storm Harvey (2005) and Hurricane Nate (2005). The most impressive upper ocean response of the recent events was produced by Hurricane Fabian when SST cooling exceeded 3.5°C, vertical mixing occurred to a depth of greater than 130 m, and upper ocean currents reached 100 cm s-1. Fabian also triggered an ocean color event visible in SeaWiFS satellite images. Related implications include improved estimates of the roles of tropical cyclones in driving meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and testing of hypotheses concerning warming of the tropical oceans which could cause more intense tropical storms and hurricanes.

  18. Historical North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks - Major Storms with Landfall in the United States, 1851-2004 - Direct Download

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This Historical North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks file of major storms with landfall in the United States contains the six-hourly (0000, 0600, 1200, 1800 UTC) center...

  19. Enhancing evaluation of post-storm morphologic response using aerial orthoimagery from Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jacquelyn Rose; Long, Joseph W.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Birchler, Justin J.

    2015-01-01

    Improved identification of morphological responses to storms is necessary for developing and maintaining predictive models of coastal change. Morphological responses to Hurricane Sandy were measured using lidar and orthophotos taken before and after the storm. Changes to dune features measured from lidar were compared to the occurrence of overwash deposits measured using orthophotos. Thresholds on morphologic change (e.g. overwash volume and dune height change) were defined to optimize agreement between the classification of lidar and orthophoto-derived dune erosion and overwash. A linear regression showed that overwash volume can be calculated from orthophoto-derived overwash extent.

  20. Predicting the Storm Surge Threat of Hurricane Sandy with the National Weather Service SLOSH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Forbes

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulations of the storm tide that flooded the US Atlantic coastline during Hurricane Sandy (2012 are carried out using the National Weather Service (NWS Sea Lakes and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH storm surge prediction model to quantify its ability to replicate the height, timing, evolution and extent of the water that was driven ashore by this large, destructive storm. Recent upgrades to the numerical model, including the incorporation of astronomical tides, are described and simulations with and without these upgrades are contrasted to assess their contributions to the increase in forecast accuracy. It is shown, through comprehensive verifications of SLOSH simulation results against peak water surface elevations measured at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA tide gauge stations, by storm surge sensors deployed and hundreds of high water marks collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, that the SLOSH-simulated water levels at 71% (89% of the data measurement locations have less than 20% (30% relative error. The RMS error between observed and modeled peak water levels is 0.47 m. In addition, the model’s extreme computational efficiency enables it to run large, automated ensembles of predictions in real-time to account for the high variability that can occur in tropical cyclone forecasts, thus furnishing a range of values for the predicted storm surge and inundation threat.

  1. Integrating disparate lidar datasets for a regional storm tide inundation analysis of Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoker, J.M.; Tyler, D.J.; Turnipseed, D.P.; Van Wilson, Jr.; Oimoen, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina was one of the largest natural disasters in U.S. history. Due to the sheer size of the affected areas, an unprecedented regional analysis at very high resolution and accuracy was needed to properly quantify and understand the effects of the hurricane and the storm tide. Many disparate sources of lidar data were acquired and processed for varying environmental reasons by pre- and post-Katrina projects. The datasets were in several formats and projections and were processed to varying phases of completion, and as a result the task of producing a seamless digital elevation dataset required a high level of coordination, research, and revision. To create a seamless digital elevation dataset, many technical issues had to be resolved before producing the desired 1/9-arc-second (3meter) grid needed as the map base for projecting the Katrina peak storm tide throughout the affected coastal region. This report presents the methodology that was developed to construct seamless digital elevation datasets from multipurpose, multi-use, and disparate lidar datasets, and describes an easily accessible Web application for viewing the maximum storm tide caused by Hurricane Katrina in southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

  2. A Storm's Approach; Hurricane Shelter Training in a Digital Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyarsky, Andrew; Burden, David; Gronstedt, Anders; Jinman, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    New York City's Office of Emergency Management (OEM) originally ran hundreds of classroom based courses, where they brought together civil servants to learn how to run a Hurricane Shelter (HS). This approach was found to be costly, time consuming and lacked any sense of an impending disaster and need for emergency response. In partnership with the City of New York University School of Professional studies, Gronstedt Group and Daden Limited, the OEM wanted to create a simulation that overcame these issues, providing users with a more immersive and realistic approach at a lower cost. The HS simulation was built in the virtual world Second Life (SL). Virtual worlds are a genre of online communities that often take the form of a computer-based simulated environments, through which users can interact with one another and use or create objects. Using this technology allowed managers to apply their knowledge in both classroom and remote learning environments. The shelter simulation is operational 24/7, guiding users through a 4 1/2 hour narrative from start to finish. This paper will describe the rationale for the project, the technical approach taken - particularly the use of a web based authoring tool to create and manage the immersive simulation, and the results from operational use.

  3. Monitoring Inland Storm Surge and Flooding from Hurricane Ike in Texas and Louisiana, September 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    East, Jeffery W.; Turco, Michael J.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of 117 pressure transducers (sensors) at 65 sites over an area of about 5,000 square miles to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Ike, which struck southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana September 12-13, 2008. Fifty-six sites were in Texas and nine were in Louisiana. Sites were categorized as surge, riverine, or beach/wave on the basis of proximity to the Gulf Coast. One-hundred five sensors from 59 sites (fig. 1) were recovered; 12 sensors from six sites either were lost during the storm or were not retrieved. All 59 sites (41 surge, 10 riverine, 8 beach/wave) had sensors to record water pressure (fig. 2), which is expressed as water level in feet above North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD88), and 46 sites had an additional sensor to record barometric pressure, expressed in pounds per square inch. Figure 3 shows an example of water level and barometric pressure over time recorded by sensors during the storm.

  4. A Tsunami Ball Approach to Storm Surge and Inundation: Application to Hurricane Katrina, 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven N. Ward

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Most analyses of storm surge and inundation solve equations of continuity and momentum on fixed finite-difference/finite-element meshes. I develop a completely new approach that uses a momentum equation to accelerate bits or balls of water over variable depth topography. The thickness of the water column at any point equals the volume density of balls there. In addition to being more intuitive than traditional methods, the tsunami ball approach has several advantages. (a By tracking water balls of fixed volume, the continuity equation is satisfied automatically and the advection term in the momentum equation becomes unnecessary. (b The procedure is meshless in the finite-difference/finite-element sense. (c Tsunami balls care little if they find themselves in the ocean or inundating land. (d Tsunami ball calculations of storm surge can be done on a laptop computer. I demonstrate and calibrate the method by simulating storm surge and inundation around New Orleans, Louisiana caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and by comparing model predictions with field observations. To illustrate the flexibility of the tsunami ball technique, I run two “What If” hurricane scenarios—Katrina over Savannah, Georgia and Katrina over Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

  5. Monitoring Inland Storm Surge and Flooding From Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana, September 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Goree, Burl B.; Tollett, Roland W.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

    2008-01-01

    On August 29-31, 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a mobile monitoring network consisting of 124 pressure transducers (sensors) (figs. 1, 2) at 80 sites over an area of about 4,200 square miles to record the timing, extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall in southeastern Louisiana on September 1. One-hundred twenty-one sensors from 61 sites (fig. 3) were recovered. Thirty-seven sites from which sensors were recovered were in the New Orleans area, and the remaining 24 sites were distributed throughout southeastern Louisiana. Sites were categorized as surge (21), riverine flooding (18), anthropogenic (affected by the operation of gates or pumps) (17), or mixed/uncertain on the basis of field observations and the appearance of the water-level data (5).

  6. The major hurricanes of 2005: A few facts: Chapter 2B in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farris, Gaye S.

    2007-01-01

    The following is a compilation of storm terminology, categories, and names as well as the meteorological history, damage, and paths of Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. This information is taken, except where noted, from the Web site and archives of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service (NWS). Greater details are available at www.nhc.noaa.gov. These facts are presented here to provide the reader background for the articles in this volume describing the storm science of the U.S. Geological Survey, which works with the NWS during hurricanes by providing real-time river stage data used by NWS to forecast river floods.

  7. The Storm Surge and Sub-Grid Inundation Modeling in New York City during Hurricane Sandy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry V. Wang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy inflicted heavy damage in New York City and the New Jersey coast as the second costliest storm in history. A large-scale, unstructured grid storm tide model, Semi-implicit Eulerian Lagrangian Finite Element (SELFE, was used to hindcast water level variation during Hurricane Sandy in the mid-Atlantic portion of the U.S. East Coast. The model was forced by eight tidal constituents at the model’s open boundary, 1500 km away from the coast, and the wind and pressure fields from atmospheric model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS provided by Weatherflow Inc. The comparisons of the modeled storm tide with the NOAA gauge stations from Montauk, NY, Long Island Sound, encompassing New York Harbor, Atlantic City, NJ, to Duck, NC, were in good agreement, with an overall root mean square error and relative error in the order of 15–20 cm and 5%–7%, respectively. Furthermore, using large-scale model outputs as the boundary conditions, a separate sub-grid model that incorporates LIDAR data for the major portion of the New York City was also set up to investigate the detailed inundation process. The model results compared favorably with USGS’ Hurricane Sandy Mapper database in terms of its timing, local inundation area, and the depth of the flooding water. The street-level inundation with water bypassing the city building was created and the maximum extent of horizontal inundation was calculated, which was within 30 m of the data-derived estimate by USGS.

  8. Tornado lift

    CERN Document Server

    Ivanchin, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    It is shown that one of the causes for tornado is Tornado Lift. At increasing vortex diameter its kinetic energy decreases to keep the moment of momentum constant. A kinetic energy gradient of such vortex is Tornado Lift. Evaluation shows that contribution of Tornado Lift in air lifting in a tornado is comparable to buoyancy according to the order of magnitude.

  9. Hurricane destructive power predictions based on historical storm and sea surface temperature data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogen, Kenneth T; Jones, Edwin D; Fischer, Larry E

    2007-12-01

    Forecasting destructive hurricane potential is complicated by substantial, unexplained intraannual variation in storm-specific power dissipation index (PDI, or integrated third power of wind speed), and interannual variation in annual accumulated PDI (APDI). A growing controversy concerns the recent hypothesis that the clearly positive trend in North Atlantic Ocean (NAO) sea surface temperature (SST) since 1970 explains increased hurricane intensities over this period, and so implies ominous PDI and APDI growth as global warming continues. To test this "SST hypothesis" and examine its quantitative implications, a combination of statistical and probabilistic methods were applied to National Hurricane Center HURDAT best-track data on NAO hurricanes during 1880-2002, and corresponding National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Extended Reconstruction SST estimates. Notably, hurricane behavior was compared to corresponding hurricane-specific (i.e., spatiotemporally linked) SST; previous similar comparisons considered only SST averaged over large NAO regions. Contrary to the SST hypothesis, SST was found to vary in a monthly pattern inconsistent with that of corresponding PDI, and to be at best weakly associated with PDI or APDI despite strong correlation with corresponding mean latitude (R(2)= 0.55) or with combined mean location and a approximately 90-year periodic trend (R(2)= 0.70). Over the last century, the lower 75% of APDIs appear randomly sampled from a nearly uniform distribution, and the upper 25% of APDIs from a nearly lognormal distribution. From the latter distribution, a baseline (SST-independent) stochastic model was derived predicting that over the next half century, APDI will not likely exceed its maximum value over the last half century by more than a factor of 1.5. This factor increased to 2 using a baseline model modified to assume SST-dependence conditioned on an upper bound of the increasing NAO SST trend observed since 1970. An

  10. Data and numerical analysis of astronomic tides, wind-waves, and hurricane storm surge along the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Cox, A. T.; Salisbury, M.; Coggin, D.

    2016-05-01

    The northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) is a unique geophysical setting for complex tropical storm-induced hydrodynamic processes that occur across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Each hurricane includes its own distinctive characteristics and can cause unique and devastating storm surge when it strikes within the intricate geometric setting of the NGOM. While a number of studies have explored hurricane storm surge in the NGOM, few have attempted to describe storm surge and coastal inundation using observed data in conjunction with a single large-domain high-resolution numerical model. To better understand the oceanic and nearshore response to these tropical cyclones, we provide a detailed assessment, based on field measurements and numerical simulation, of the evolution of wind waves, water levels, and currents for Hurricanes Ivan (2004), Dennis (2005), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012), with focus on Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle coasts. The developed NGOM3 computational model describes the hydraulic connectivity among the various inlet and bay systems, Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, coastal rivers and adjacent marsh, and built infrastructure along the coastal floodplain. The outcome is a better understanding of the storm surge generating mechanisms and interactions among hurricane characteristics and the NGOM's geophysical configuration. The numerical analysis and observed data explain the ˜2 m/s hurricane-induced geostrophic currents across the continental shelf, a 6 m/s outflow current during Ivan, the hurricane-induced coastal Kelvin wave along the shelf, and for the first time a wealth of measured data and a detailed numerical simulation was performed and was presented for Isaac.

  11. Sedimentary record of storm deposits from Hurricane Ike, Galveston and San Luis Islands, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkes, A. D.; Horton, B. P.

    2012-10-01

    Prehistoric records of land-falling tropical cyclones further our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of tropical cyclone activity and its relationship with global climatic changes. Here, we describe deposit stratigraphy and sedimentology resulting from overwash during Hurricane Ike, which made landfall on September 13th 2008, to provide a much needed modern analogue for paleo-hurricane deposits and evaluate the hurricane's influence on barrier stability. We compared the volume, grain size distribution, organic content and foraminiferal assemblages of washover deposits at three sites from Galveston and San Luis Islands, Texas that were up to 50 km west of Ike's landfall. Storm surge heights varied between 3.7 and 2.7 m with inland inundation extents of 330 to 113 m. At each of the study sites, Hurricane Ike eroded the shoreline and re-deposited a landward-thinning sand sheet between 0.02 and 0.28 m thick over short-grass prairie/salt-marsh soil. Shoreline erosion estimates suggest that only between 10 and 30% of eroded beach sediment is deposited on land as washover (net gain to barrier elevation), while the remainder is re-deposited subtidally or offshore, a potential net loss to the coastal sediment budget. The washover sediment was readily identifiable by abrupt changes in grain size, organic content, and buried in situ grasses. Foraminiferal assemblages within washover and short-grass prairie/salt-marsh sediments (when present) have similar assemblages, which are dominated by Ammonia spp. and Elphidium spp. These species are common to bay and nearshore environments of the Gulf of Mexico. Foraminiferal species Bolivina subaenariensis, Quinqueloculina seminulum and planktonic species are restricted to the washover deposits, which may suggest sediment provenance from inner shelf environments.

  12. Estimating tsunami inundation from hurricane storm surge predictions along the U.S. gulf coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pampell-Manis, Alyssa; Horrillo, Juan; Figlus, Jens

    2016-08-01

    Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coasts have been included in the U.S. Tsunami Warning System since 2005. While the tsunami risk for the GOM is low, tsunamis generated by local submarine landslides pose the greatest potential threat, as evidenced by several large ancient submarine mass failures identified in the northern GOM basin. Given the lack of significant historical tsunami evidence in the GOM, the potential threat of landslide tsunamis in this region is assessed from a worst-case scenario perspective based on a set of events including the large ancient failures and most likely extreme events determined by a probabilistic approach. Since tsunamis are not well-understood along the Gulf Coast, we investigate tsunami inundation referenced to category-specific hurricane storm surge levels, which are relatively well established along the Gulf Coast, in order to provide information for assessing the potential threat of tsunamis which is more understandable and accessible to emergency managers. Based on tsunami inundation studies prepared for the communities of South Padre Island, TX, Galveston, TX, Mobile, AL, Panama City, FL, and Tampa, FL, we identify regional trends of tsunami inundation in terms of modeled storm surge inundation. The general trends indicate that tsunami inundation can well exceed the level of storm surge from major hurricanes in open beachfront and barrier island regions, while more interior areas are less threatened. Such information can be used to better prepare for tsunami events as well as provide a preliminary estimate of tsunami hazard in locations where detailed tsunami inundation studies have not been completed.

  13. Importance of air-sea interaction on wind waves, storm surge and hurricane simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yingjian; Yu, Xiping

    2017-04-01

    It was reported from field observations that wind stress coefficient levels off and even decreases when the wind speed exceeds 30-40 m/s. We propose a wave boundary layer model (WBLM) based on the momentum and energy conservation equations. Taking into account the physical details of the air-sea interaction process as well as the energy dissipation due to the presence of sea spray, this model successfully predicts the decreasing tendency of wind stress coefficient. Then WBLM is embedded in the current-wave coupled model FVCOM-SWAVE to simulate surface waves and storm surge under the forcing of hurricane Katrina. Numerical results based on WBLM agree well with the observed data of NDBC buoys and tide gauges. Sensitivity analysis of different wind stress evaluation methods also shows that large anomalies of significant wave height and surge elevation are captured along the passage of hurricane core. The differences of the local wave height are up to 13 m, which is in accordance with the general knowledge that the ocean dynamic processes under storm conditions are very sensitive to the amount of momentum exchange at the air-sea interface. In the final part of the research, the reduced wind stress coefficient is tested in the numerical forecast of hurricane Katrina. A parabolic formula fitted to WBLM is employed in the atmosphere-ocean coupled model COAWST. Considering the joint effects of ocean cooling and reduced wind drag, the intensity metrics - the minimum sea level pressure and the maximum 10 m wind speed - are in good inconsistency with the best track result. Those methods, which predict the wind stress coefficient that increase or saturate in extreme wind condition, underestimate the hurricane intensity. As a whole, we unify the evaluation methods of wind stress in different numerical models and yield reasonable results. Although it is too early to conclude that WBLM is totally applicable or the drag coefficient does decrease for high wind speed, our current

  14. Improved Satellite Techniques for Monitoring and Forecasting the Transition of Hurricanes to Extratropical Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folmer, Michael; Halverson, Jeffrey; Berndt, Emily; Dunion, Jason; Goodman, Steve; Goldberg, Mitch

    2014-01-01

    The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites R-Series (GOES-R) and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Satellite Proving Grounds have introduced multiple proxy and operational products into operations over the last few years. Some of these products have proven to be useful in current operations at various National Weather Service (NWS) offices and national centers as a first look at future satellite capabilities. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) field campaign have had access to a few of these products to assist in monitoring extratropical transitions of hurricanes. The red, green, blue (RGB) Air Mass product provides forecasters with an enhanced view of various air masses in one complete image to help differentiate between possible stratospheric/tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. As a compliment to this product, a new Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Ozone product was introduced in the past year to assist in diagnosing the dry air intrusions seen in the RGB Air Mass product. Finally, a lightning density product was introduced to forecasters as a precursor to the new Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will be housed on GOES-R, to monitor the most active regions of convection, which might indicate a disruption in the tropical environment and even signal the onset of extratropical transition. This presentation will focus on a few case studies that exhibit extratropical transition and point out the usefulness of these new satellite techniques in aiding forecasters forecast these challenging events.

  15. Hurricane impacts on coastal wetlands: A half-century record of storm-generated features from Southern Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, R.A.; Barras, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Temporally and spatially repeated patterns of wetland erosion, deformation, and deposition are observed on remotely sensed images and in the field after hurricanes cross the coast of Louisiana. The diagnostic morphological wetland features are products of the coupling of high-velocity wind and storm-surge water and their interaction with the underlying, variably resistant, wetland vegetation and soils. Erosional signatures include construction of orthogonal-elongate ponds and amorphous ponds, pond expansion, plucked marsh, marsh denudation, and shoreline erosion. Post-storm gravity reflux of floodwater draining from the wetlands forms dendritic incisions around the pond margins and locally integrates drainage pathways forming braided channels. Depositional signatures include emplacement of broad zones of organic wrack on topographic highs and inorganic deposits of variable thicknesses and lateral extents in the form of shore-parallel sandy washover terraces and interior-marsh mud blankets. Deformational signatures primarily involve laterally compressed marsh and displaced marsh mats and balls. Prolonged water impoundment and marsh salinization also are common impacts associated with wetland flooding by extreme storms. Many of the wetland features become legacies that record prior storm impacts and locally influence subsequent storm-induced morphological changes. Wetland losses caused by hurricane impacts depend directly on impact duration, which is controlled by the diameter of hurricane-force winds, forward speed of the storm, and wetland distance over which the storm passes. Distinguishing between wetland losses caused by storm impacts and losses associated with long-term delta-plain processes is critical for accurate modeling and prediction of future conversion of land to open water. ?? Coastal Education & Research Foundation 2011.

  16. Hurricane Sandy science plan: impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caskie, Sarah A.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry • Impacts to coastal beaches and barriers

  17. Monitoring storm tide and flooding from Hurricane Sandy along the Atlantic coast of the United States, October 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCallum, Brian E.; Wicklein, Shaun M.; Reiser, Robert G.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Morrison, Jonathan; Verdi, Richard J.; Painter, Jaime A.; Frantz, Eric R.; Gotvald, Anthony J.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of water-level and barometric pressure sensors at 224 locations along the Atlantic coast from Virginia to Maine to continuously record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of hurricane storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Sandy. These records were greatly supplemented by an extensive post-flood high-water mark (HWM) flagging and surveying campaign from November to December 2012 involving more than 950 HWMs. Both efforts were undertaken as part of a coordinated federal emergency response as outlined by the Stafford Act under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

  18. Excitation of seismic waves by a tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valovcin, A.; Tanimoto, T.; Twardzik, C.

    2016-12-01

    Tornadoes are among the most common natural disasters to occur in the United States. Various methods are currently used in tornado forecasting, including surface weather stations, weather balloons and satellite and Doppler radar. These methods work for detecting possible locations of tornadoes and funnel clouds, but knowing when a tornado has touched down still strongly relies on reports from spotters. Studying tornadoes seismically offers an opportunity to know when a tornado has touched down without requiring an eyewitness report. With the installation of Earthscope's Transportable Array (TA), there have been an increased number of tornadoes that have come within close range of seismometers. We have identified seismic signals corresponding to three tornadoes that occurred in 2011 in the central US. These signals were recorded by the TA station closest to each of the tornado tracks. For each tornado, the amplitudes of the seismic signals increase when the storm is in contact with the ground, and continue until the tornado lifts off some time later. This occurs at both high and low frequencies. In this study we will model the seismic signal generated by a tornado at low frequencies (below 0.1 Hz). We will begin by modeling the signal from the Joplin tornado, an EF5 rated tornado which occurred in Missouri on May 22, 2011. By approximating the tornado as a vertical force, we model the generated signal as the tornado moves along its track and changes in strength. By modeling the seismic waveform generated by a tornado, we can better understand the seismic-excitation process. It could also provide a way to quantitatively compare tornadoes. Additional tornadoes to model include the Calumet-El Reno-Piedmont-Guthrie (CEPG) and Chickasa-Blanchard-Newcastle (CBN) tornadoes, both of which occurred on May 24, 2011 in Oklahoma.

  19. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY...

  20. The Tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, John T.

    1984-01-01

    Although tornadoes have been one of the most elusive phenomena in meteorology, new observation techniques are now revealing how they are spawned by thunderstorms. Tornado structure and formation, thunderstorms, tornadic thunderstorms, and the evolution and structure of such thunderstorms are considered. Why the Midwest has frequent tornadoes is…

  1. Research on the impacts of past and future hurricanes on the endangered Florida manatee: Chapter 6J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langtimm, Catherine A.; Krohn, M. Dennis; Stith, Bradley M.; Reid, James P.; Beck, C.A.; Butler, Susan M.

    2007-01-01

    U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research on Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) from 1982 through 1998 identified lower apparent survival rates for adult manatees during years when Hurricane Elena (1985), the March "Storm of the Century"(1993), and Hurricane Opal (1995) hit the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Although our analysis showed that a significant number of our monitored individual manatees failed to return to their winter homes after these storms, their actual fate remains unknown. With the aid of new satellite technology to track manatees during storms and new statistical techniques to determine survival and emigration rates, researchers are working to understand how hurricanes impact the endangered species by studying manatees caught in the path of the destructive hurricanes of 2004 and 2005.

  2. Fleeing The Storm(s): An Examination of Evacuation Behavior During Florida’s 2004 Hurricane Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    SMITH, STANLEY K.; MCCARTY, CHRIS

    2009-01-01

    The 2004 hurricane season was the worst in Florida’s history, with four hurricanes causing at least 47 deaths and some $45 billion in damages. To collect information on the demographic impact of those hurricanes, we surveyed households throughout the state and in the local areas that sustained the greatest damage. We estimate that one-quarter of Florida’s population evacuated prior to at least one hurricane; in some areas, well over one-half of the residents evacuated at least once, and many evacuated several times. Most evacuees stayed with family or friends and were away from home for only a few days. Using logistic regression analysis, we found that the strength of the hurricane and the vulnerability of the housing unit had the greatest impact on evacuation behavior; additionally, several demographic variables had significant effects on the probability of evacuating and the choice of evacuation lodging (family/friends, public shelters, or hotels/motels). With continued population growth in coastal areas and the apparent increase in hurricane activity caused by global warming, threats posed by hurricanes are rising in the United States and throughout the world. We believe the present study will help government officials plan more effectively for future hurricane evacuations. PMID:19348112

  3. Tropical Storm Frances/ Hurricane Ivan Situation Report, September 10, 2014 (10:00 AM EDT)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2004-09-10

    The report provides highlights related to impacts of Hurricane Frances and Hurricane Ivan in the Florida area. Sections on electric information, oil and gas information, county outage data, and a table for restoration targets/status are provided.

  4. Tropical Storm Frances and Hurricane Ivan Situation Report, September 9, 2004 (10:00 PM EDT)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2004-09-09

    The report provides highlights related to impacts of Hurricane Frances and Hurricane Ivan in the Florida area. Sections on electric information, oil and gas information, and county outage data are provided.

  5. Comparing hurricane and extratropical storm surge for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coast of the United States for 1979-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, J. F.; Rieder, H. E.; Kushnir, Y.

    2016-09-01

    This letter examines the magnitude, spatial footprint, and paths of hurricanes and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) that caused strong surge along the east coast of the US between 1979 and 2013. Lagrangian cyclone track information, for hurricanes and ETCs, is used to associate surge events with individual storms. First, hurricane influence is examined using ranked surged events per site. The fraction of hurricanes among storms associated with surge decreases from 20%-60% for the top 10 events to 10%-30% for the top 50 events, and a clear latitudinal gradient of hurricane influence emerges for larger sets of events. Secondly, surges on larger spatial domains are examined by focusing on storms that cause exceedance of the probabilistic 1-year surge return level at multiple stations. Results show that if the strongest events in terms of surge amplitude and spatial extent are considered, then hurricanes are most likely to create the hazards. However, when slightly less strong events that still impact multiple areas during the storm life cycle are considered, the relative importance of hurricanes shrinks as that of ETCs grows. Furthermore we find distinct paths for ETCs causing multi-site surge at individual segments of the US east coast.

  6. The effect of Hurricane Katrina: births in the U.S. Gulf Coast region, before and after the storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Brady E; Sutton, Paul D; Mathews, T J; Martin, Joyce A; Ventura, Stephanie J

    2009-08-28

    This report presents birth data for the region affected by Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall along the Gulf Coast of the United States on August 29, 2005, comparing the 12-month periods before and after the storm according to a wide variety of characteristics. Data are presented for maternal demographic characteristics including age, race, Hispanic origin, marital status, and educational attainment; medical care utilization by pregnant women (prenatal care and method of delivery); and infant characteristics or birth outcomes (period of gestation and birthweight). Descriptive tabulations of data reported on the birth certificates of residents of the 91 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)-designated counties and parishes of Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi are presented for the 12-month periods before and after Hurricane Katrina struck, from August 29, 2004, through August 28, 2006. Detailed data are shown separately for 14 selected, FEMA-designated coastal counties and parishes within a 100-mile radius of the Hurricane Katrina storm path, the area hit very hard by the storm and subsequent flooding. These 14 selected coastal counties and parishes are a subset of the 91 FEMA-designated counties and parishes. The total number of births in the 14 selected FEMA-designated counties and parishes decreased 19 percent in the 12 months after Hurricane Katrina compared with the 12 months before, with births declining in the selected counties and parishes of Louisiana and Mississippi and rising in the counties of Alabama. The number of births to non-Hispanic black women in the selected parishes of Louisiana fell substantially after Hurricane Katrina; births declined for non-Hispanic white, Hispanic, and Asian or Pacific Islander women in these selected parishes as well. The percentage of births to women under age 20 years for the selected counties and parishes after the storm was essentially unchanged in Alabama and Mississippi, but decreased in Louisiana. The

  7. A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-05

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  8. A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  9. Radar observations of a tornado-spawning storm complex in Southeast Brazil and Meso-Eta forecasts of this extreme event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Held, Gerhard; Gomes, Jorge Luis; Gomes, Ana Maria

    2014-05-01

    During the early afternoon of 22 September 2013, severe storms, accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, heavy precipitation and intense lightning activity, devastated a region in the southeast State of São Paulo. Several extremely intense storm cells moved at up to 80 km/h east-southeastwards, ahead of a strong cold front approaching through Paraná, which created extremely unstable conditions that led to deep convection and overshooting towers up to 18 km. At least one of theses cells spawned a tornado when it reached the town of Taquarituba. The tornado traversed the town from south-southwest to north-northeast and was responsible for 63 people injured and two fatalities. Based on the damage reported, it was at least an F3 according to the Fujita scale. The objective of the present study is to characterize this severe thunderstorm event, using different types of data, and to evaluate the forecasts provided by the Meso-Eta model centered over Bauru. The pre-frontal and frontal convective cells were tracked throughout their life-time by IPMet's Doppler radars, which cover the western and central regions of the State São Paulo, as well as northern Paraná State. Radar volume scans, generated every 7,5 min, were processed with the TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting) Software, yielding the following preliminary results: as the storm complex traversed the Paranapanema River, which forms the border between the two states, the cells intensified drastically and shortly before reaching the town of Taquarituba, that particular cell displayed extremely strong radial shear just above the cloud base (about -20 to +35 m/s), which led to the formation of a deep meso-cyclone, from which the tornado spawned and touched down at around 14:30 LT (LT=UT-3h). Cell properties calculated by TITAN showed a drastic increase of VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid water content) from 13:52 LT (7,9 kg/m2) to a maximum of 61,8 kg/m2 at 14:15 LT. From 14

  10. Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Judi, David R.; Leung, L. Ruby

    2016-06-23

    Coastal populations in the global tropics and sub-tropics are vulnerable to the devastating impacts of hurricane storm surge and this risk is only expected to rise under climate change. In this study, we address this issue for the U.S. Gulf and Florida coasts. Using the framework of Potential Intensity, observations and output from coupled climate models, we show that the future large-scale thermodynamic environment may become more favorable for hurricane intensification. Under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario and for the peak hurricane season months of August–October, we show that the mean intensities of Atlantic hurricanes may increase by 1.8–4.2 % and their lifetime maximum intensities may increase by 2.7–5.3 % when comparing the last two decades of the 20th and 21st centuries. We then combine our estimates of hurricane intensity changes with projections of sea-level rise to understand their relative impacts on future storm surge using simulations with the National Weather Service’s SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model for five historical hurricanes that made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Considering uncertainty in hurricane intensity changes and sea-level rise, our results indicate a median increase in storm surge ranging between 25 and 47 %, with changes in hurricane intensity increasing future storm surge by about 10 % relative to the increase that may result from sea level rise alone, with highly non-linear response of population at risk.

  11. Sensitivity of Hurricane Storm Surge to Land Cover and Topography Under Various Sea Level Rise Scenarios Along the Mississippi Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclone conditions. Literature suggests with 'very high confidence that global sea level will rise at least 0.2 m and no more than 2.0 m by 2011' (Donoghue, 2011; Parris et al., 2012). Further, it is recognized that the Mississippi barrier islands are highly susceptible to a westward migration and retreating shoreline. With predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms, rising sea levels, and a changing landscape, it is important to understand how these changes may affect inundation extent and flooding due to hurricane storm surge. A state-of-the-art SWAN+ADCIRC hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past (1960) and future (2050) sea level changes were simulated. In addition to altering the initial sea state, land use land cover (LULC) was modified for 1960 and 2050 based on historic data and future projections. LULC datasets are used to derive surface roughness characteristics, such as Manning's n, and wind reduction factors. The topography along the barrier islands and near the Pascagoula River, MS was also altered to reflect the 1960 landscape. Storm surge sensitivity to topographic change were addressed by comparing model results between two 1960 storm surge simulations; one with current topography and a second with changes to the barrier islands. In addition, model responses to changes in LULC are compared. The results will be used to gain insight into adapting present day storm surge models for future conditions. References Donoghue, J. (2011). Sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and sea level rise scenarios for the near future. Climatic Change, 107

  12. The public health planners' perfect storm: Hurricane Matthew and Zika virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Qanta A; Memish, Ziad A

    Hurricane Matthew threatened to be one of the most powerful Hurricanes to hit the United States in a century. Fortunately, it avoided making landfall on Florida, the eye of the Hurricane remaining centered 40 miles off the Florida coast. Even so it has resulted in over $7 Billion USD in damage according to initial estimates with much of the damage ongoing in severe flooding. Response to and recovery from Hurricane Matthew challenged Florida's public health services and resources just as emergency Zika-specific congressional funding to combat Zika outbreaks in Florida had become available. Hurricanes can disrupt the urban environment in a way that increases the likelihood of vector-borne illnesses and their aftermath can severely strain the very infectious disease and infection control academe needed to combat vector-borne outbreaks. This commentary attempts to examine the challenges posed by Hurricane Matthew in Florida's efforts to contain Zika. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Directional analysis of the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy 2012, with applications to Charleston, New Orleans, and the Philippines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl Drews

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy in late October 2012 drove before it a storm surge that rose to 4.28 meters above mean lower low water at The Battery in lower Manhattan, and flooded the Hugh L. Carey automobile tunnel between Brooklyn and The Battery. This study examines the surge event in New York Harbor using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF atmospheric model and the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave- Sediment Transport/Regional Ocean Modeling System (COAWST/ROMS. We present a new technique using directional analysis to calculate and display maps of a coastline's potential for storm surge; these maps are constructed from wind fields blowing from eight fixed compass directions. This analysis approximates the surge observed during Hurricane Sandy. The directional analysis is then applied to surge events at Charleston, South Carolina, New Orleans, Louisiana, and Tacloban City, the Philippines. Emergency managers could use these directional maps to prepare their cities for an approaching storm, on planning horizons from days to years.

  14. Directional analysis of the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy 2012, with applications to Charleston, New Orleans, and the Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drews, Carl; Galarneau, Thomas J

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy in late October 2012 drove before it a storm surge that rose to 4.28 meters above mean lower low water at The Battery in lower Manhattan, and flooded the Hugh L. Carey automobile tunnel between Brooklyn and The Battery. This study examines the surge event in New York Harbor using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model and the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave- Sediment Transport/Regional Ocean Modeling System (COAWST/ROMS). We present a new technique using directional analysis to calculate and display maps of a coastline's potential for storm surge; these maps are constructed from wind fields blowing from eight fixed compass directions. This analysis approximates the surge observed during Hurricane Sandy. The directional analysis is then applied to surge events at Charleston, South Carolina, New Orleans, Louisiana, and Tacloban City, the Philippines. Emergency managers could use these directional maps to prepare their cities for an approaching storm, on planning horizons from days to years.

  15. Numerical Simulation of a Tornado Generating Supercell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proctor, Fred H.; Ahmad, Nashat N.; LimonDuparcmeur, Fanny M.

    2012-01-01

    The development of tornadoes from a tornado generating supercell is investigated with a large eddy simulation weather model. Numerical simulations are initialized with a sounding representing the environment of a tornado producing supercell that affected North Carolina and Virginia during the Spring of 2011. The structure of the simulated storm was very similar to that of a classic supercell, and compared favorably to the storm that affected the vicinity of Raleigh, North Carolina. The presence of mid-level moisture was found to be important in determining whether a supercell would generate tornadoes. The simulations generated multiple tornadoes, including cyclonic-anticyclonic pairs. The structure and the evolution of these tornadoes are examined during their lifecycle.

  16. Statistics of severe tornadoes and severe tornado outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. D. Malamud

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The standard measures of the intensity of a tornado in the USA and many other countries are the Fujita and Enhanced Fujita scales. These scales are based on the damage that a tornado causes. Another measure of the strength of a tornado is its path length of touchdown, L. In this study we consider severe tornadoes, which we define as L≥10 km, in the continental USA (USA Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Database. We find that for the period 1982–2011, for individual severe tornadoes (L≥10 km: (i There is a strong linear scaling between the number of severe tornadoes in a year and their total path length in that year. (ii The cumulative frequency path length data suggests that, not taking into account any changing trends over time, we would expect in a given year (on average one severe tornado with a path length L≥115 km and in a decade (on average one severe tornado with a path length L≥215 km. (iii The noncumulative frequency-length statistics of severe tornado touchdown path lengths, 20<L<200 km, is well approximated by an inverse power-law relationship with exponent near 3. We then take the total path length of severe tornadoes in a convective day (12:00–12:00 UTC, LD, as a measure of the strength of a 24-h USA tornado outbreak. We find that: (i For 1982–2011, the number of severe tornadoes in a USA convective day outbreak has a strong power-law relationship (exponent 0.80 on the convective day total path length, LD. (ii For 1952–2011, the cumulative frequency path length data for severe tornado outbreaks suggests that we would expect in a given year (on average one daily severe tornado outbreak with total path length LD≥480 km and in a decade (on average one daily severe tornado outbreak with a total path length LD≥1200 km. (iii For 1982–2011, the noncumulative frequency-length statistics of tornado

  17. A geospatial dataset for U.S. hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise vulnerability: Development and case study applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan C. Maloney

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of future sea-level rise for coastal communities are a priority concern arising from anthropogenic climate change. Here, previously published methods are scaled up in order to undertake a first pass assessment of exposure to hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts. Sea-level rise scenarios ranging from +0.50 to +0.82 m by 2100 increased estimates of the area exposed to inundation by 4–13% and 7–20%, respectively, among different Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity categories. Potential applications of these hazard layers for vulnerability assessment are demonstrated with two contrasting case studies: potential exposure of current energy infrastructure in the U.S. Southeast and exposure of current and future housing along both the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Estimates of the number of Southeast electricity generation facilities potentially exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 69 to 291 for category 1 and category 5 storms, respectively. Sea-level rise increased the number of exposed facilities by 6–60%, depending on the sea-level rise scenario and the intensity of the hurricane under consideration. Meanwhile, estimates of the number of housing units currently exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 4.1 to 9.4 million for category 1 and category 4 storms, respectively, while exposure for category 5 storms was estimated at 7.1 million due to the absence of landfalling category 5 hurricanes in the New England region. Housing exposure was projected to increase 83–230% by 2100 among different sea-level rise and housing scenarios, with the majority of this increase attributed to future housing development. These case studies highlight the utility of geospatial hazard information for national-scale coastal exposure or vulnerability assessment as well as the importance of future socioeconomic development in the assessment of coastal vulnerability.

  18. Statistics of severe tornadoes and severe tornado outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. D. Malamud

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The standard measures of the intensity of a tornado in the USA and many other countries are the Fujita and Enhanced Fujita scales. These scales are based on the damage that a tornado causes. Another measure of the strength of a tornado is its path length of touchdown, L. In this study we consider 4061 severe tornadoes (defined as L≥10 km in the continental USA for the time period 1981–2010 (USA Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Database. We find for individual severe tornadoes: (i The noncumulative frequency-length statistics of severe tornado touchdown path lengths, 20 < L < 200 km, is well approximated by an inverse power-law relationship with exponent near 3. (ii There is a strong linear scaling between the number of severe tornadoes in a year and their total path lengths in that year. We then take the total path length of severe tornadoes in a day, LD, as a measure of the strength of a 24-hour USA tornado outbreak. We find that: (i On average, the number of days per year with at least one continental USA severe tornado (path length L≥10 km has increased 16% in the 30-year period 1981–2010. (ii The daily numbers of severe tornadoes in a USA outbreak have a strong power-law relationship (exponent 0.87 on their daily total path lengths, LD, over the range 20 < LD < 1000 km dy−1. (iii The noncumulative frequency-length statistics of tornado outbreaks, 10 < LD < 1000 km dy−1, is well approximated by an inverse power-law relationship with exponent near 1.7. We believe that our robust scaling results provide evidence that touchdown path lengths can be used as quantitative measures of the systematic properties of severe tornadoes and severe tornado outbreaks.

  19. Tornado Mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    The Nimbus and other weather satellites are helping determine why and how tornadoes form their structure and dynamics and ultimately how they can be prevented or artificially dissipated. NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center is also planning a cooperative research program later this year with the University of Arkansas to investigate how tornado damage occurs, and to develop tornado resistant building designs. Hardware and field-data collection are funded by the Technology Utilization Office while data reduction is being performed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

  20. A numerical study of the impact of hurricane-induced storm surge on the Herbert Hoover Dike at Lake Okeechobee, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuepeng; Teng, Yi-Cheng; Kelly, David M.; Zhang, Keqi

    2016-12-01

    Hurricanes Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma passed over Lake Okeechobee, Florida, in September 2004 and October 2005, respectively. Strong winds caused a large surface seiche on the lake during all three storms. These storms resulted in erosion damage to the Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD) on Lake Okeechobee. In this paper, we use the Fully Adaptive Storm Tide (FAST) model (Kelly et al. in Coast Eng J 57(4):1-30, 2015, Nat Hazards 83:53-74, 2016) to study the response of the lake (in terms of the water level fluctuations and induced currents) to hurricanes Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma. Comparisons of the modeled surface water level with the observations are in overall good agreement for all three hurricanes. The modeled results suggest that the strong currents induced by the storm winds may be the dominant factor controlling the dike erosion observed at the lake side. The locations of erosion damage to the dike are consistent with the modeled high velocity zones during these three storms. In addition, numerical experiments have been conducted with eight hypothetical category 5 hurricanes approaching from different directions to investigate the erosion-prone zones related to high velocities in the vicinity of the dike. The results of the study should help to provide insight into vulnerable reaches of the HHD and inform flood control in the Okeechobee region.

  1. RELATIVE VULNERABILITY OF SELECTED CARIBBEAN STATES TO CHANGES IN FOOD SECURITY DUE TO TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlisle Pemberton

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the determination of the relative vulnerability of selected Caribbean states to changes in their food security status because of the incidence of tropical storms and hurricanes required the aggregation of a composite indicator of the stability of food security and a risk indicator. Linear aggregation was utilized to derive the composite indicator of the stability of food security and this approach and Pareto ranking were used to aggregate this composite indicator and the risk indicator (Annual Frequency of Hurricanes and Storms to assess relative vulnerability. The most vulnerable states were the small island developing states (SIDS: St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, Dominica, Grenada and Antigua and Barbuda, supporting the position that SIDS are in a most precarious position. The least vulnerable states were Belize, Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica. Pareto rankings and linear aggregation produced similar relative vulnerability orderings. However, Pareto rankings had the advantage of imposing fewer restrictions, such as the continuity and linearity of aggregation functions and they were able to show graphically that several countries may have the same relative vulnerability status because of the impact of different vulnerability factors, a situation that is lost in the numerical values of linear aggregation.

  2. Extreme changes to barrier islands along the central Gulf of Mexico coast during Hurricane Katrina: Chapter 5C in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallenger, Asbury; Wright, Wayne; Lillycrop, Jeff; Howd, Peter; Stockdon, Hilary; Guy, Kristy K.; Morgan, Karen

    2007-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina caused extreme changes to the barrier islands of the central Gulf of Mexico coast. Dauphin Island, Ala., migrated landward and stranded the remains of its oceanfront row homes in the sea. Chandeleur Islands, La., were completely stripped of their sand, leaving only marshy outcrops in the storm's wake.

  3. Cheap Textile Dam Protection of Seaport Cities against Hurricane Storm Surge Waves, Tsunamis, and Other Weather-Related Floods

    CERN Document Server

    Bolonkin, A

    2007-01-01

    Author offers to complete research on a new method and cheap applicatory design for land and sea textile dams. The offered method for the protection of the USA's major seaport cities against hurricane storm surge waves, tsunamis, and other weather-related inundations is the cheapest (to build and maintain of all extant anti-flood barriers) and it, therefore, has excellent prospective applications for defending coastal cities from natural weather-caused disasters. It may also be a very cheap method for producing a big amount of cyclical renewable hydropower, land reclamation from the ocean, lakes, riverbanks, as well as land transportation connection of islands, and islands to mainland, instead of very costly over-water bridges and underwater tunnels.

  4. Global Positioning System surveys of storm-surge sensors deployed during Hurricane Ike, Seadrift, Texas, to Lake Charles, Louisiana, 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Jason; Woodward, Brenda K.; Storm, John B.

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey installed a network of pressure sensors at 65 sites along the Gulf Coast from Seadrift, Texas, northeast to Lake Charles, Louisiana, to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of inland storm surge and coastal flooding caused by Hurricane Ike in September 2008. A Global Positioning System was used to obtain elevations of reference marks near each sensor. A combination of real-time kinematic (RTK) and static Global Positioning System surveys were done to obtain elevations of reference marks. Leveling relative to reference marks was done to obtain elevations of sensor orifices above the reference marks. This report summarizes the Global Positioning System data collected and processed to obtain reference mark and storm-sensor-orifice elevations for 59 storm-surge sensors recovered from the original 65 installed as a necessary prelude to computation of storm-surge elevations. National Geodetic Survey benchmarks were used for RTK surveying. Where National Geodetic Survey benchmarks were not within 12 kilometers of a sensor site, static surveying was done. Additional control points for static surveying were in the form of newly established benchmarks or reestablished existing benchmarks. RTK surveying was used to obtain positions and elevations of reference marks for 29 sensor sites. Static surveying was used to obtain positions and elevations of reference marks for 34 sensor sites; four sites were surveyed using both methods. Multiple quality checks on the RTK-survey and static-survey data were applied. The results of all quality checks indicate that the desired elevation accuracy for the surveys of this report, less than 0.1-meter error, was achieved.

  5. Touchable Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilhousen, David

    2004-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses a tornado-producing machine that he used in teacher-led, student assisted demonstrations in order to reinforce concepts learned during a unit on weather. The machine, or simulator, was powered by a hair dryer, fan, and cool-mist humidifier. The machine consists of a demonstration table containing a plenum box,…

  6. Ocean Observing Public-Private Collaboration to Improve Tropical Storm and Hurricane Predictions in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, R.; Leung, P.; McCall, W.; Martin, K. M.; Howden, S. D.; Vandermeulen, R. A.; Kim, H. S. S.; Kirkpatrick, B. A.; Watson, S.; Smith, W.

    2016-02-01

    In 2008, Shell partnered with NOAA to explore opportunities for improving storm predictions in the Gulf of Mexico. Since, the collaboration has grown to include partners from Shell, NOAA National Data Buoy Center and National Center for Environmental Information, National Center for Environmental Prediction, University of Southern Mississippi, and the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System. The partnership leverages complementary strengths of each collaborator to build a comprehensive and sustainable monitoring and data program to expand observing capacity and protect offshore assets and Gulf communities from storms and hurricanes. The program combines in situ and autonomous platforms with remote sensing and numerical modeling. Here we focus on profiling gliders and the benefits of a public-private partnership model for expanding regional ocean observing capacity. Shallow and deep gliders measure ocean temperature to derive ocean heat content (OHC), along with salinity, dissolved oxygen, fluorescence, and CDOM, in the central and eastern Gulf shelf and offshore. Since 2012, gliders have collected 4500+ vertical profiles and surveyed 5000+ nautical miles. Adaptive sampling and mission coordination with NCEP modelers provides specific datasets to assimilate into EMC's coupled HYCOM-HWRF model and 'connect-the-dots' between well-established Eulerian metocean measurements by obtaining (and validating) data between fixed stations (e.g. platform and buoy ADCPs) . Adaptive sampling combined with remote sensing provides satellite-derived OHC validation and the ability to sample productive coastal waters advected offshore by the Loop Current. Tracking coastal waters with remote sensing provides another verification of estimate Loop Current and eddy boundaries, as well as quantifying productivity and analyzing water quality on the Gulf coast, shelf break and offshore. Incorporating gliders demonstrates their value as tools to better protect offshore oil and gas assets

  7. Tame a Tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Jim

    2003-01-01

    The author was looking for a demonstration that actually used wind shear forces to set up the tornado effect when he saw a video produced by The Tornado Project called "Secrets of the Tornado". This video not only shows dozens of actual tornadoes, but also gives construction techniques for several different styles of tornado boxes that are…

  8. Coupled modeling of storm surge and coastal inundation: A case study in New York City during Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Jie; Lin, Ning; Yu, Dapeng

    2016-11-01

    In this paper, we describe a new method of modeling coastal inundation arising from storm surge by coupling a widely used storm surge model (ADCIRC) and an urban flood inundation model (FloodMap). This is the first time the coupling of such models is implemented and tested using real events. The method offers a flexible and efficient procedure for applying detailed ADCIRC storm surge modeling results along the coastal boundary (with typical resolution of ˜100 m) to FloodMap for fine resolution inundation modeling (Hurricane Sandy was simulated at both the city (New York City) and subregional (lower Manhattan) scales with various resolutions. Results obtained from the ADCIRC and coupled ADCIRC-FloodMap simulations were compared with the recorded (high water marks) and derived (inundation extent based on the planar method) data from FEMA. At the city scale, coupled ADCIRC-FloodMap modeling demonstrates improved prediction over ADCIRC modeling alone for both the extent and depth of inundation. The advantage of the coupled model is further illustrated in the subregional modeling, using a mesh resolution of 3 m which is substantially finer than the inland mesh resolution used by ADCIRC (>70 m). In further testing, we explored the effects of mesh resolution and roughness specification. Results agree with previous studies that fine resolution is essential for capturing intricate flow paths and connectivity in urban topography. While the specification of roughness is more challenging for urban environments, it may be empirically optimized. The successful coupling of ADCIRC and FloodMap models for fine resolution coastal inundation modeling unlocks the potential for undertaking large numbers of probabilistically based synthetic surge events for street-level risk analysis.

  9. Modeling Storm Surge and Inundation in Washington, DC, during Hurricane Isabel and the 1936 Potomac River Great Flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry V. Wang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Washington, DC, the capital of the U.S., is located along the Upper Tidal Potomac River, where a reliable operational model is needed for making predictions of storm surge and river-induced flooding. We set up a finite volume model using a semi-implicit, Eulerian-Lagrangian scheme on a base grid (200 m and a special feature of sub-grids (10 m, sourced with high-resolution LiDAR data and bathymetry surveys. The model domain starts at the fall line and extends 120 km downstream to Colonial Beach, VA. The model was used to simulate storm tides during the 2003 Hurricane Isabel. The water level measuring 3.1 m reached the upper tidal river in the vicinity of Washington during the peak of the storm, followed by second and third flood peaks two and four days later, resulting from river flooding coming downstream after heavy precipitation in the watershed. The modeled water level and timing were accurate in matching with the verified peak observations within 9 cm and 3 cm, and with R2 equal to 0.93 and 0.98 at the Wisconsin Avenue and Washington gauges, respectively. A simulation was also conducted for reconstructing the historical 1936 Potomac River Great Flood that inundated downtown. It was identified that the flood water, with a velocity exceeding 2.7 m/s in the downstream of Roosevelt Island, pinched through the bank northwest of East Potomac Park near DC. The modeled maximum inundation extents revealed a crescent-shaped flooding area, which was consistent with the historical surveyed flood map of the event.

  10. Prevention of child injuries during tornadoes: cases from the 2011 tornado outbreak in Alabama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Christine M; Baker, Mark D; Monroe, Kathy W

    2012-12-01

    Tornadoes and violent weather pose a hazard to children, yet little is known about the use of personal protective devices during storms. An outbreak of tornadoes on April 27, 2011, resulted in the deaths of 23 children in Alabama. Records from 60 patients seen in a pediatric emergency department for tornado-related injuries were reviewed to identify the use of injury prevention devices. Three children directly exposed to a violent tornado (Enhanced Fujita Scale 4) were using safety equipment, specifically, a helmet and infant car seats. These 3 children sustained only minor injuries. Personal protective devices may have played a role in preventing child injuries from tornadoes. To our knowledge, this is the first report in the medical literature on helmet and infant car seat use as child protective devices during tornadoes.

  11. Weathering the storm: challenges to nurses providing care to nursing home residents during hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, Kathryn; Brown, Lisa M; Christensen, Janelle J; Thomas, Kali S

    2009-11-01

    This article documents the experience of 291 Florida nursing homes during the 2004 hurricane season. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, the authors described and compared the challenges nurses encountered when evacuating residents with their experiences assisting residents of facilities that sheltered in place. The primary concerns for evacuating facilities were accessing appropriate evacuation sites for residents and having ambulance transportation contracts honored. The main issue for facilities that sheltered in place was the length of time it took for power to be restored. Barriers to maintaining resident health during disasters for those who evacuated or sheltered in place are identified.

  12. Storm and hurricane disturbances on phosphorus storage within an in-stream wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    The ability of wetlands to hold phosphorus (P) makes them and important landscape feature that help to protect water quality. However, their ability to retain P can be affected through hydrologic disturbances caused by both storms and flooding. An animal waste impacted in-stream wetland (ISW) locate...

  13. Past, Present, and Future Sea Level Change Assessments of Storm Surge: A Case Study Using Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclonic conditions. Further, it is generally agreed that global sea levels due to climate change will rise anywhere from 18 to 100 cm by the year 2100 (Donoghue, 2011, IPCC, 2007) with some projecting even higher. Further, it is recognized that coastal Mississippi is highly susceptible to a retreating shoreline from sea level rise coupled with predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms from an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (Trenberth, 2005, Webster, et al., 2005). A fully-validated, state-of-the-art ADCIRC+UnSWAN hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past and future sea level changes were simulated. A regression was performed at local tide gauges to estimate past and project future sea levels. Also, surface roughness (i.e. Manning's n and wind reduction factors) was adjusted to reflect past landcover conditions as well as estimate future landcover change. Here, past, present and future sea level scenarios are modeled using a dynamic approach, along with Hurricane Katrina, and compared to present dynamic responses to sea level rise. The dynamic results will be compared and contrasted with a simpler bathtub model (static) approach. It will be demonstrated that water levels do not change linearly with modeled sea level cases (i.e. a 50 cm rise in sea level will not result in an additional 50 cm of water level at a given location) and are highly variable to changes in local conditions (e.g. topography, bathymetry, and surface roughness). Further, nearshore wind-wave conditions are affected by changes in local sea level due to the changes in momentum transfer from the

  14. Impacts of Hurricane Katrina on floodplain forests of the Pearl River: Chapter 6A in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulkner, Stephen; Barrow, Wylie; Couvillion, Brady R.; Conner, William; Randall, Lori; Baldwin, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Floodplain forests are an important habitat for Neotropical migratory birds. Hurricane Katrina passed through the Pearl River flood plain shortly after making landfall. Field measurements on historical plots and remotely sensed data were used to assess the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the structure of floodplain forests of the Pearl River.

  15. Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Hanna's effects on the salinity of the coastal aquifer, Quintana Roo, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovacs, Shawn E.; Reinhardt, Eduard G.; Stastna, Marek; Coutino, Aaron; Werner, Christopher; Collins, Shawn V.; Devos, Fred; Le Maillot, Christophe

    2017-08-01

    There is a lack of information on aquifer dynamics in anchialine systems, especially in the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico. Most of our knowledge is based on ;spot; measurements of the aquifer with no long-term temporal monitoring. In this study spanning four years (2012-2016), sensors (water depth and conductivity (salinity)) were deployed and positioned (-9 and -10 m) in the meteoric Water Mass (WM) close to the transition with the marine WM (halocline) in 2 monitoring sites within the Yax Chen cave system to investigate precipitation effects on the salinity of the coastal aquifer. The results show variation in salinity (95 mm) such as Hurricane Ingrid (2013) and Tropical Storm Hanna (2014) shows meteoric water mass salinity rapidly increasing (approx. 6.39 to >8.6 ppt), but these perturbations have a shorter duration (weeks and days). Wavelet analysis of the salinity record indicates seasonal mixing effects in agreement with the wet and dry periods, but also seasonal effects of tidal mixing (meteoric and marine water masses) occurring on shorter time scales (diurnal and semi-diurnal). These results demonstrate that the salinity of the freshwater lens is influenced by precipitation and turbulent mixing with the marine WM. The salinity response is scaled with precipitation; larger more intense rainfall events (>95 mm) create a larger response in terms of the magnitude and duration of the salinity perturbation (>1 ppt). The balance of precipitation and its intensity controls the temporal and spatial patterning of meteoric WM salinity.

  16. Alfvenic tornadoes

    CERN Document Server

    Shukla, P K

    2012-01-01

    It is shown that a three-dimensional (3D) modified-kinetic Alfv\\'en waves (m-KAWs) can propagate in the form of Alfv\\'enic tornadoes characterized by plasma density whirls or magnetic flux ropes carrying orbital angular momentum (OAM). By using the two fluid model, together with Amp\\`ere's law, we derive the wave equation for a 3D m-KAWs in a magnetoplasma with $m_e/m_i \\ll \\beta \\ll 1$, where $m_e$ $(m_i)$ is the electron (ion) mass, $\\beta =4 \\pi n_0 k_B (T_e + T_i)/B_0^2$, $n_0$ the unperturbed plasma number density, $k_B$ the Boltzmann constant, $T_e (T_e)$ the electron (ion) temperature, and $B_0$ the strength of the ambient magnetic field. The 3D m-KAW equation admits solutions in the form of a Laguerre-Gauss (LG) Alfv\\'enic vortex beam or Alfv\\'enic tornadoes with plasma density whirls that support the dynamics of Alfv\\'en magnetic flux ropes.

  17. Teacher Guidelines for Helping Students after a Tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Child Traumatic Stress Network, 2013

    2013-01-01

    Being in a tornado can be very frightening, and the days, weeks, and months following the storm can be very stressful. Most families recover over time, especially with the support of relatives, friends, and their community. But different families may have different experiences during and after a tornado, and how long it takes them to recover will…

  18. Episodic Eolian Sand Deposition in the Past 4000 Years in Cape COD National Seashore, Massachusetts, USA in Response to Possible Hurricane/storm and Anthropogenic Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forman, Steven

    2015-02-01

    The eolian sand depositional record for a dune field within Cape Cod National Seashore, Massachusetts is posit as a sensitive indicator of environmental disturbances in the late Holocene from a combination of factors such as hurricane/storm and forest fire occurrence, and anthropogenic activity. Stratigraphic and sedimentologic observations, particularly the burial of spodosol-like soils, and associated 14C and OSL ages that are concordant indicate at least six eolian depositional events at ca. 3750, 2500, 1800, 960, 430 and dune migration and sand sheet accretion. The timing of eolian deposition, particularly the initiation age, corresponds to documented periods of increased storminess/hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean at ca. 2.0 to 1.6, and 1.0 ka and also a wetter coastal climate, which suppressed the occurrence of forest fire. Thus, local droughts are not associated with periods of dune movement in this mesic environment. Latest eolian activity on outer Cape Cod commenced in the past 300 to 500 years and may reflect multiple factors including broad-scale landscape disturbance with European colonization, an increased incidence of forest fires and heightened storminess. Eolian systems of Cape Cod appear to be sensitive to landscape disturbance and prior to European settlement may reflect predominantly hurricane/storm disturbance, despite generally mesic conditions in past 4 ka.

  19. Alfvenic tornadoes

    OpenAIRE

    Shukla, P. K.

    2012-01-01

    It is shown that a three-dimensional (3D) modified-kinetic Alfv\\'en waves (m-KAWs) can propagate in the form of Alfv\\'enic tornadoes characterized by plasma density whirls or magnetic flux ropes carrying orbital angular momentum (OAM). By using the two fluid model, together with Amp\\`ere's law, we derive the wave equation for a 3D m-KAWs in a magnetoplasma with $m_e/m_i \\ll \\beta \\ll 1$, where $m_e$ $(m_i)$ is the electron (ion) mass, $\\beta =4 \\pi n_0 k_B (T_e + T_i)/B_0^2$, $n_0$ the unpert...

  20. Hurricane Sandy: Caught in the eye of the storm and a city's adaptation response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orton, P. M.; Horton, R. M.; Blumberg, A. F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.; Bader, D.

    2015-12-01

    The NOAA RISA program has funded the seven-institution Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN) for the past five years to serve stakeholder needs in assessing and managing risks from climate variability and change. When Hurricane Sandy struck, we were in an ideal position, making flood forecasts and communicating NOAA forecasts to the public with dozens of media placements, translating the poorly understood flood forecasts into human dimensions. In 2013 and 2015, by request of New York City (NYC), we worked through the NYC Panel on Climate Change to deliver updated climate risk assessment reports, to be used in the post-Sandy rebuilding and resiliency efforts. These utilized innovative methodologies for probabilistic local and regional sea level change projections, and contrasted methods of dynamic versus (the more common) static flood mapping. We participated in a federal-academic partnership that developed a Sea Level Tool for Sandy Recovery that integrates CCRUN sea level rise projections with policy-relevant FEMA flood maps, and now several updated flood maps and coastal flood mapping tools (NOAA, FEMA, and USACE) incorporate our projections. For the adaptation response, we helped develop NYC's $20 billion flood adaptation plan, and we were on a winning team under the Housing and Urban Development Rebuild By Design (RBD) competition, a few of the many opportunities that arose with negligible additional funding and which CCRUN funds supported. Our work at times disrupted standard lines of thinking, but NYC showed an openness to altering course. In one case we showed that an NYC plan of wetland restoration in Jamaica Bay would provide no reduction in flooding unless deep-dredged channels circumventing them were shallowed or narrowed. In another, the lead author's RBD team challenged the notion at one location that levees were the solution to accelerating sea level rise, developing a plan to use ecological breakwaters and layered components of

  1. Analyzing Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Angelyn; Meyer, Stephan; Edwards, Becca

    2015-03-01

    Post-tropical Storm Sandy underwent extratropical transition shortly before making landfall in southern New Jersey October 29 2012. Data from this system was compared with data from Hurricane Ike (2008) which represents a classic hurricane with a clear eye wall and symmetry after landfall. Storm Sandy collided with a low pressure system coming in from the north as the hurricane made landfall on the US East coast. This contributed to Storm Sandy acting as a non-typical hurricane when it made landfall. Time histories of wind speed and wind direction were generated from data provided by Texas Tech's StickNet probes for both storms. The NOAA Weather and Climate program were used to generate radar loops of reflectivity during the landfall for both storms; these loops were compared with time histories for both Ike and Sandy to identify a relationship between time series data and storm-scale features identified on radar.

  2. Potential consequences of saltwater intrusion associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Chapter 6C in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steyer, Gregory D.; Perez, Brian C.; Piazza, Sarai C.; Suir, Glenn

    2007-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita pushed salt water from the Gulf of Mexico well inland into freshwater marsh communities in coastal Louisiana. This paper describes the spatial extent of saltwater intrusion and provides an initial assessment of impacts (salt stress) to coastal marsh vegetation communities.

  3. The perfect storm of information: combining traditional and non-traditional data sources for public health situational awareness during hurricane response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Kelly J; Olsen, Jennifer M; Harris, Sara; Mekaru, Sumiko; Livinski, Alicia A; Brownstein, John S

    2013-12-16

    Hurricane Isaac made landfall in southeastern Louisiana in late August 2012, resulting in extensive storm surge and inland flooding. As the lead federal agency responsible for medical and public health response and recovery coordination, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) must have situational awareness to prepare for and address state and local requests for assistance following hurricanes. Both traditional and non-traditional data have been used to improve situational awareness in fields like disease surveillance and seismology. This study investigated whether non-traditional data (i.e., tweets and news reports) fill a void in traditional data reporting during hurricane response, as well as whether non-traditional data improve the timeliness for reporting identified HHS Essential Elements of Information (EEI). HHS EEIs provided the information collection guidance, and when the information indicated there was a potential public health threat, an event was identified and categorized within the larger scope of overall Hurricane Issac situational awareness. Tweets, news reports, press releases, and federal situation reports during Hurricane Isaac response were analyzed for information about EEIs. Data that pertained to the same EEI were linked together and given a unique event identification number to enable more detailed analysis of source content. Reports of sixteen unique events were examined for types of data sources reporting on the event and timeliness of the reports. Of these sixteen unique events identified, six were reported by only a single data source, four were reported by two data sources, four were reported by three data sources, and two were reported by four or more data sources. For five of the events where news tweets were one of multiple sources of information about an event, the tweet occurred prior to the news report, press release, local government\\emergency management tweet, and federal situation report. In all circumstances where

  4. EPISODIC EOLIAN SAND DEPOSITION IN THE PAST 4000 YEARS IN CAPE COD NATIONAL SEASHORE, MASSACHUSETTS, USA IN RESPONSE TO POSSIBLE HURRICANE/STORM AND ANTHROPOGENIC DISTURBANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven L. Forman

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The eolian sand depositional record for a dune field within Cape Cod National Seashore, Massachusetts is posit as a sensitive indicator of environmental disturbances in the late Holocene from a combination of factors such as hurricane/storm and forest fire occurrence, and anthropogenic activity. Stratigraphic and sedimentologic observations, particularly the burial of spodosol-like soils, and associated 14C and OSL ages that are concordant indicate at least six eolian depositional events at ca. 3750, 2500, 1800, 960, 430 and <250 years ago. The two oldest events are documented at just one locality and thus, the pervasiveness of this eolian activity is unknown. However, the four younger events are identified in three or more sites and show evidence for dune migration and sand sheet accretion. The timing of eolian deposition, particularly the initiation age, corresponds to documented periods of increased storminess/hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean at ca. 2.0 to 1.6, and 1.0 ka and also a wetter coastal climate, which suppressed the occurrence of forest fire. Thus, local droughts are not associated with periods of dune movement in this mesic environment. Latest eolian activity on outer Cape Cod commenced in the past 300 to 500 years and may reflect multiple factors including broad-scale landscape disturbance with European colonization, an increased incidence of forest fires and heightened storminess. Eolian systems of Cape Cod appear to be sensitive to landscape disturbance and prior to European settlement may reflect predominantly hurricane/storm disturbance, despite generally mesic conditions in past 4 ka.

  5. Tornado risk model for transmission line design

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Milford, RV

    1997-11-01

    Full Text Available is in combination with ice loading. The wind load used in most codes of practice and design recommendations for transmission line design have until recently been based almost exclusively on large-scale wind storms, which may include severe storms such as hurricanes...

  6. Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, S. C.; Alizad, K.; Medeiros, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Needham, H. F.; Cox, A.

    2016-05-01

    This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static ("bathtub") modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

  7. Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, S.C.; Alizad, K.A.; Medeiros, S.C.; Passeri, Davina; Needham, H.F.; Cox, A.

    2016-01-01

    This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static (“bathtub”) modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

  8. Hurricane Matthew overwash extents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara; Long, Joseph W.; Birchler, Justin; Range, Ginger

    2017-01-01

    The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project exists to understand and predict storm impacts to our nation's coastlines. This data defines the alongshore extent of overwash deposits attributed to coastal processes during Hurricane Matthew.

  9. Hurricane Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanuel, Kerry

    2012-10-01

    Hurricanes provide beautiful examples of many of the key physical processes important in geophysical systems. They are rare natural examples of nearly perfect Carnot heat engines with an interesting wrinkle: They recycle much of their waste heat into the front end of the engine, thereby achieving greater wind speeds than would otherwise be possible. They are driven by surface enthalpy fluxes made possible by the thermodynamic disequilibrium between the earth's surface and atmosphere, a characteristic of radiative equilibrium in the presence of greenhouse gases. Their evolution, structure, and intensity all depend on turbulence near the ocean surface and in the outflow layer of the storm, high up in the atmosphere. In the course of this banquet, I will briefly describe these and other interesting aspects of hurricane physics, and also describe the role these storms have played in human history.

  10. Bacteriological water quality in and around Lake Pontchartrain following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Chapter 7H in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demcheck, Dennis K.; Stoeckel, Donald M.; Bushon, Rebecca N.; Blehert, David S.; Hippe, Daniel J.

    2007-01-01

    Following the Louisiana landfalls of Katrina on August 29 and Rita on September 24, 2005, the local population and the American public were concerned about the effects the hurricanes might have on water quality in Lake Pontchartrain. The lake is a major recreational resource for the region and an important fishery. Contamination carried by the storm surge—along with runoff and water pumped from flooded areas of New Orleans—was considered a serious threat to the water body. The USGS, in collaboration with the LDEQ, monitored the sanitary quality of water at 22 sites in and around Lake Pontchartrain, La., for 3 consecutive weeks from September 13 to 29, 2005 (fig. 1). A subsequent multipleagency survey of 30 sites within Lake Pontchartrain was undertaken by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the USGS, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during the week of October 11–14, 2005, to evaluate the effects of the hurricanes and overall levels of fecal contamination on the water quality of the lake (see Heitmuller and Perez, this volume). In addition, the EPA monitored fecal-indicator concentrations at a variety of sites in New Orleans, surrounding areas, and the Mississippi River between September 3 and October 22, 2005 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2006). This article describes fecal-indicator bacteria concentration results collected by USGS in the context of other existing data.

  11. A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Vincent Y S; Arhonditsis, George B; Sills, David M L; Gough, William A; Auld, Heather

    2015-03-25

    Tornadoes represent one of nature's most hazardous phenomena that have been responsible for significant destruction and devastating fatalities. Here we present a Bayesian modelling approach for elucidating the spatiotemporal patterns of tornado activity in North America. Our analysis shows a significant increase in the Canadian Prairies and the Northern Great Plains during the summer, indicating a clear transition of tornado activity from the United States to Canada. The linkage between monthly-averaged atmospheric variables and likelihood of tornado events is characterized by distinct seasonality; the convective available potential energy is the predominant factor in the summer; vertical wind shear appears to have a strong signature primarily in the winter and secondarily in the summer; and storm relative environmental helicity is most influential in the spring. The present probabilistic mapping can be used to draw inference on the likelihood of tornado occurrence in any location in North America within a selected time period of the year.

  12. Tornadoes of china

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zixiu, Xu; Pengyun, Wang; Xuefang, Lin

    While the most important severe convective weather phenomenon in China is hail, the occasional tornadoes that do occur can inflict considerable damage. For example, on March 26, 1967, a family of 13 tornadoes occurred near Shanghai and North Zhejiang province. Along the path of this tornado outbreak, more than 10,000 homes were damaged. Several steel high-voltage power transmission towers, including some built to withstand Beaufort force 12 winds, were blown down or severely damaged.

  13. Impact of storm-induced cooling of sea surface temperature on large turbulent eddies and vertical turbulent transport in the atmospheric boundary layer of Hurricane Isaac

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Ping; Wang, Yuting; Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan; Gao, Cen

    2016-01-01

    Roll vortices in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) are important to oil operation and oil spill transport. This study investigates the impact of storm-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling on the roll vortices generated by the convective and dynamic instability in the ABL of Hurricane Isaac (2012) and the roll induced transport using hindcasting large eddy simulations (LESs) configured from the multiply nested Weather Research & Forecasting model. Two experiments are performed: one forced by the Unified Wave INterface - Coupled Model and the other with the SST replaced by the NCEP FNL analysis that does not include the storm-induced SST cooling. The simulations show that the roll vortices are the prevalent eddy circulations in the ABL of Isaac. The storm-induced SST cooling causes the ABL stability falls in a range that satisfies the empirical criterion of roll generation by dynamic instability, whereas the ABL stability without considering the storm-induced SST cooling meets the criterion of roll generation by convective instability. The ABL roll is skewed and the increase of convective instability enhances the skewness. Large convective instability leads to large vertical transport of heat and moisture; whereas the dominant dynamic instability results in large turbulent kinetic energy but relatively weak heat and moisture transport. This study suggests that failure to consider roll vortices or incorrect initiation of dynamic and convective instability of rolls in simulations may substantially affect the transport of momentum, energy, and pollutants in the ABL and the dispersion/advection of oil spill fume at the ocean surface.

  14. Tornado intensity estimated from damage path dimensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsner, James B; Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, Ian J

    2014-01-01

    The Newcastle/Moore and El Reno tornadoes of May 2013 are recent reminders of the destructive power of tornadoes. A direct estimate of a tornado's power is difficult and dangerous to get. An indirect estimate on a categorical scale is available from a post-storm survery of the damage. Wind speed bounds are attached to the scale, but the scale is not adequate for analyzing trends in tornado intensity separate from trends in tornado frequency. Here tornado intensity on a continuum is estimated from damage path length and width, which are measured on continuous scales and correlated to the EF rating. The wind speeds on the EF scale are treated as interval censored data and regressed onto the path dimensions and fatalities. The regression model indicates a 25% increase in expected intensity over a threshold intensity of 29 m s(-1) for a 100 km increase in path length and a 17% increase in expected intensity for a one km increase in path width. The model shows a 43% increase in the expected intensity when fatalities are observed controlling for path dimensions. The estimated wind speeds correlate at a level of .77 (.34, .93) [95% confidence interval] with a small sample of wind speeds estimated independently from a doppler radar calibration. The estimated wind speeds allow analyses to be done on the tornado database that are not possible with the categorical scale. The modeled intensities can be used in climatology and in environmental and engineering applications. Research is needed to understand the upward trends in path length and width.

  15. Geologic effects of hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coch, Nicholas K.

    1994-08-01

    Hurricanes are intense low pressure systems of tropical origin. Hurricane damage results from storm surge, wind, and inland flooding from heavy rainfall. Field observations and remote sensing of recent major hurricanes such as Hugo (1989), Andrew (1992) and Iniki (1992) are providing new insights into the mechanisms producing damage in these major storms. Velocities associated with hurricanes include the counterclockwise vortex winds flowing around the eye and the much slower regional winds that steer hurricane and move it forward. Vectorial addition of theseof these two winds on the higher effective wind speed than on the left side. Coast-parallel hurricane tracks keep the weaker left side of the storm against the coast, whereas coast-normal tracks produce a wide swath of destruction as the more powerful right side of the storm cuts a swath of destruction hundreds of kilometers inland. Storm surge is a function of the wind speed, central pressure, shelf slope, shoreline configuration, and anthropogenic alterations to the shoreline. Maximum surge heights are not under the eye of the hurricane, where the pressure is lowest, but on the right side of the eye at the radius of maximum winds, where the winds are strongest. Flood surge occurs as the hurricane approaches land and drives coastal waters, and superimposed waves, across the shore. Ebb surge occurs when impounded surface water flows seaward as the storm moves inland. Flood and ebb surge damage have been greatly increased in recent hurricanes as a result of anthropogenic changes along the shoreline. Hurricane wind damage occurs on three scales — megascale, mesoscale and microscale. Local wind damage is a function of wind speed, exposure and structural resistance to velocity pressure, wind drag and flying debris. Localized extreme damage is caused by gusts that can locally exceed sustained winds by a factor of two in areas where there is strong convective activity. Geologic changes occuring in hurricanes

  16. Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Tchounwou

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE obtained at the equilibrium level (EL, from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  17. Environmental modeling, technology, and communication for land falling tropical cyclone/hurricane prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuluri, Francis; Reddy, R Suseela; Anjaneyulu, Y; Colonias, John; Tchounwou, Paul

    2010-05-01

    Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (W(max)) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21-30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2-3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  18. The environment associated with significant tornadoes in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bikos, Dan; Finch, Jonathan; Case, Jonathan L.

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the environmental parameters favoring significant tornadoes in Bangladesh through a simulation of ten high-impact events. A climatological perspective is first presented on classifying significant tornadoes in Bangladesh, noting the challenges since reports of tornadoes are not documented in a formal manner. The statistical relationship between United States and Bangladesh tornado-related deaths suggests that significant tornadoes do occur in Bangladesh so this paper identifies the most significant tornadic events and analyzes the environmental conditions associated with these events. Given the scarcity of observational data to assess the near-storm environment in this region, high-resolution (3-km horizontal grid spacing) numerical weather prediction simulations are performed for events identified to be associated with a significant tornado. In comparison to similar events over the United States, significant tornado environments in Bangladesh are characterized by relatively high convective available potential energy, sufficient deep-layer vertical shear, and a propensity for deviant (i.e., well to the right of the mean flow) storm motion along a low-level convergence boundary.

  19. Tornado-Shaped Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Sol Sáez; de la Rosa, Félix Martínez; Rojas, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    In Advanced Calculus, our students wonder if it is possible to graphically represent a tornado by means of a three-dimensional curve. In this paper, we show it is possible by providing the parametric equations of such tornado-shaped curves.

  20. Dual-Polarimetric Radar-Based Tornado Debris Signatures and Paths Associated with Tornadoes Over Northern Alabama During the Historic Outbreak of 27 April 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Christopher J.; Schultz, Elise V.; Petersen, Walter A.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Knupp, Kevin R.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Jedloved, Gary J.; Carcione, Brian C.; Darden, Christopher B.; Crowe, Christina C.

    2012-01-01

    A historic tornado and severe weather outbreak devastated much of the southeastern United States between 25 and 28 April 2011. On 27 April 2011, northern Alabama was particularly hard hit by 40 tornadoes, including 6 that reached EF-4 to EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita damage scale. In northern Alabama alone, there were approximately 100 fatalities and hundreds of people who were injured or lost their homes during the havoc caused by these violent tornadic storms. Many of these tornadoes occurred within range of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band dual-polarimetric). A unique capability of dual-polarimetric radar is the near-real time identification of lofted debris associated with ongoing tornadoes. The focus of this paper is to analyze the dual-polarimetric radar-inferred tornado debris signatures in 6 tornadoes in North Alabama on April 27, 2011. Several of these debris signatures were disseminated in real-time to the NWS Huntsville and local media to confirm storm spotter reports, confidence to enhance wording within warnings, and accurately pinpoint the locations of tornadoes for residents downstream of the storm. Also, the debris signature locations were used in post-event storm surveys to help locate areas of damage in regions where damage went unreported, or to help separate tornado tracks that were in close proximity to each other. Furthermore, the relative locations of the debris and damage paths for long track EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes will be ascertained by careful comparison of the ARMOR analysis with NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) satellite imagery of the tornado damage scenes and the National Weather Service tornado damage surveys.

  1. Hurricane! Coping With Disaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lifland, Jonathan

    A new AGU book, Hurricane! Coping With Disaster, analyzes the progress made in hurricane science and recounts how advances in the field have affected the public's and the scientific community's understanding of these storms. The book explores the evolution of hurricane study, from the catastrophic strike in Galveston, Texas in 1900—still the worst natural disaster in United States history—to today's satellite and aircraft observations that track a storm's progress and monitor its strength. In this issue, Eos talks with Robert Simpson, the books' senior editor.Simpson has studied severe storms for more than 60 years, including conducting one of the first research flights through a hurricane in 1945. He was the founding director of the (U.S.) National Hurricane Research Project and has served as director of the National Hurricane Center. In collaboration with Herbert Saffir, Simpson helped design and implement the Saffir/Simpson damage potential scale that is widely used to identify potential damage from hurricanes.

  2. Optimism following a tornado disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suls, Jerry; Rose, Jason P; Windschitl, Paul D; Smith, Andrew R

    2013-05-01

    Effects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students, local residents contacted through random-digit dialing, and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. Students and community residents reported being less vulnerable than their peers at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after the disaster. In Studies 1 and 2, absolute risk estimates were more optimistic with time, whereas comparative vulnerability was stable. Residents of affected neighborhoods (Study 3), surprisingly, reported less comparative vulnerability and lower "gut-level" numerical likelihood estimates at 6 months, but later their estimates resembled the unaffected residents. Likelihood estimates (10%-12%), however, exceeded the 1% risk calculated by storm experts, and gut-level versus statistical-level estimates were more optimistic. Although people believed they had approximately a 1-in-10 chance of injury from future tornadoes (i.e., an overestimate), they thought their risk was lower than peers.

  3. Eye of the storm: analysis of shelter treatment records of evacuees to Acadiana from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caillouet, L Philip; Paul, P Joseph; Sabatier, Steven M; Caillouet, Kevin A

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to gain insight into the medical needs of disaster evacuees, through a review of experiential data collected in evacuation shelters in the days and weeks following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, to better prepare for similar events in the future. Armed with the information and insights provided herein, it is hoped that meaningful precautions and decisive actions can be taken by individuals, families, institutions, communities, and officials should the Louisiana Gulf Coast-or any other area with well-known vulnerabilities-be faced with a future emergency. Demographic and clinical data that were recorded on paper documents during triage and treatment in evacuation shelters were later transcribed into a computerized database management system, with cooperation of the Department of Health Information Management at The University of Louisiana at Lafayette. Analysis of those contemporaneously collected data was undertaken later by the Louisiana Center for Health Informatics. Evacuation shelters, Parish Health Units, and other locations including churches and community centers were the venue for ad hoc clinics in the Acadiana region of Louisiana. The evacuee-patients-3,329 of them-whose information is reflected in the subject dataset were among two geographically distinct but similarly distressed groups: 1) evacuees from Hurricane Katrina that devastated New Orleans and other locales near Louisiana and neighboring states in late August 2005 and 2) evacuees from Hurricane Rita that devastated Southwest Louisiana and neighboring areas of Texas in September 2005. Patient data were collected by physicians, nurses, and other volunteers associated with the Operation Minnesota Lifeline (OML) deployment during the weeks following the events. Volunteer clinicians from OML provided triage and treatment services and documented those services as paper medical records. As the focus of the OML "mission of mercy" was entirely on direct individually

  4. Mexico tornado climatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Macías Medrano

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available A brief introduction on some features of tornado database in Mexico is exposed showing its substantive criteria. We resent a brief analysis about main Mexican tornadoes´ characteristics, based on data collected between 2000 to 2010, talking about spatial and temporal expressions (historical, seasonal and horary in order to show the importance of it destruction capacity and also the people´s vulnerability in Mexico.

  5. Hurricane Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... English Hurricane Safety Checklist - Arabic Hurricane Safety Checklist - Chinese Hurricane Safety Checklist - French Hurricane Safety Checklist - Haitian ... Cross serves in the US, its territories and military installations around the world. Please try again. Your ...

  6. Effect of Hurricane Katrina on incidence of acute myocardial infarction in New Orleans three years after the storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Zhen; Kakoulides, Socrates V; Moscona, John; Whittier, Jabar; Srivastav, Sudesh; Delafontaine, Patrice; Irimpen, Anand

    2012-02-15

    To detect a long-term increase in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after Hurricane Katrina and to investigate the pertinent contributing factors, we conducted a single-center retrospective cohort observational study. The patients admitted with AMI to Tulane University Hospital in the 2 years before Katrina and the 3 years after the hospital reopened were identified from the hospital medical records. The pre- and post-Katrina groups were compared for prespecified demographic and clinical data. In the 3-year post-Katrina group, 418 admissions (2.0%) for AMI occurred of a total census of 21,092 patients compared to 150 (0.7%) of a census of 21,079 in the 2-year pre-Katrina group (p Katrina group had a greater prevalence of unemployment (p Katrina to 59 years after Katrina (p <0.05), and a significantly greater percentage of patients were men (p <0.05). No significant differences were found between the two groups in terms of race, substance abuse, and a history of hypertension or diabetes mellitus. Our data suggest that chronic stress after natural disasters may significantly affect cardiovascular risk factors such as tobacco abuse and increase medical noncompliance. In conclusion, our data is consistent with a significant change in the overall health of the population and support the need for additional study into the health effects of chronic stress after natural disasters. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Automatic urban debris zone extraction from post-hurricane very high-resolution satellite and aerial imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shasha Jiang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Automated remote sensing methods have not gained widespread usage for damage assessment after hurricane events, especially for low-rise buildings, such as individual houses and small businesses. Hurricane wind, storm surge with waves, and inland flooding have unique damage signatures, further complicating the development of robust automated assessment methodologies. As a step toward realizing automated damage assessment for multi-hazard hurricane events, this paper presents a mono-temporal image classification methodology that quickly and accurately differentiates urban debris from non-debris areas using post-event images. Three classification approaches are presented: spectral, textural, and combined spectral–textural. The methodology is demonstrated for Gulfport, Mississippi, using IKONOS panchromatic satellite and NOAA aerial colour imagery collected after 2005 Hurricane Katrina. The results show that multivariate texture information significantly improves debris class detection performance by decreasing the confusion between debris and other land cover types, and the extracted debris zone accurately captures debris distribution. Additionally, the extracted debris boundary is approximately equivalent regardless of imagery type, demonstrating the flexibility and robustness of the debris mapping methodology. While the test case presents results for hurricane hazards, the proposed methodology is generally developed and expected to be effective in delineating debris zones for other natural hazards, including tsunamis, tornadoes, and earthquakes.

  8. Structures of Mesocirculations Producing Tornadoes Associated with Tropical Cyclone Frances (1998)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Gandikota V.; Scheck, Joshua W.; Edwards, Roger; Schaefer, Joseph T.

    2005-08-01

    Radar structures of one mesocyclone and one mesocirculation (the term mesocirculation refers to a class of rotating updrafts, which may or may not be as spatially and temporally large as a typical mesocyclone) that developed a total of four tornadoes in association with Tropical Cyclone (TC) Frances 1998 are presented. One tornado developed within an inner rainband near the time of landfall while three of the other tornadoes developed within an outer rainband nearly 24 hours after the landfall. Radar reflectivities of the tornadic circulations averaged upwards of 40 dBZ while Doppler radar wind components directed toward the radar averaged 11 m s-1. It is realized that although TC Frances was a minimal hurricane it spawned several tornadoes (four of which were studied) causing damage exceeding 2 million. These tornadoes were not all located close to the TC center, serving as a caution to forecasters and emergency personnel that the immediate landfalling area is not the only place to watch.

  9. Condensational theory of stationary tornadoes

    CERN Document Server

    Makarieva, Anastassia M; Nefiodov, Andrei V; 10.1016/j.physleta.2011.04.023

    2012-01-01

    Using the Bernoulli integral for air streamline with condensing water vapor a stationary axisymmetric tornado circulation is described. The obtained profiles of vertical, radial and tangential velocities are in agreement with observations for the Mulhall tornado, world's largest on record and longest-lived among the three tornadoes for which 3D velocity data are available. Maximum possible vortex velocities are estimated.

  10. What's Left After a Tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence Inst. of Tech., Southfield, MI.

    Following recent tornadoes, terms of specially trained architectural and engineering faculty conducted onsite examinations and research of building damage. It was concluded that tornado damage to buildings is predictable. A trained architect or engineer can establish, before a tornado strikes, those portions of the building that will offer the…

  11. 3 CFR 8386 - Proclamation 8386 of May 26, 2009. National Hurricane Preparedness Week, 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... coastal and inland communities. These powerful storms can cause heavy rainfall, high winds, tornadoes, and storm surges, which can in turn bring severe flooding, power outages, damage to homes and...

  12. Coupling Between Doppler Radar Signatures and Tornado Damage Tracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Carey, Lawrence; Carcione, Brian; Smith, Matthew; Schultz, Elise V.; Schultz, Christopher; Lafontaine, Frank

    2011-01-01

    On April 27, 2011, the southeastern United States was raked with several episodes of severe weather. Numerous tornadoes caused extensive damage, and tragically, the deaths of over 300 people. In Alabama alone, there were 61 confirmed tornados, 4 of them produced EF5 damage, and several were on the ground an hour or more with continuous damage tracks exceeding 80km. The use of Doppler radars covering the region provided reflectivity and velocity signatures that allowed forecasters to monitors the severe storms from beginning to end issuing hundreds of severe weather warnings throughout the day. Meteorologists from the the NWS performed extensive surveys to assess the intensity, duration, and ground track of tornadoes reported during the event. Survey activities included site visits to the affected locations, analysis of radar and satellite data, aerial surveys, and interviews with eyewitnesses. Satellite data from NASA's MODIS and ASTER instruments played a helpful role in determining the location of tornado damage paths and in the assessment. High resolution multispectral and temporal composites helped forecasters corroborate their damage assessments, determine starting and ending points for tornado touchdowns, and helped to provide forecasters with a better big-picture view of the damage region. The imagery also helped to separate damage from the April 27th tornados from severe weather that occurred earlier that month. In a post analysis of the outbreak, tornado damage path signatures observed in the NASA satellite data have been correlated to "debris ball" signatures in the NWS Doppler radars and a special ARMOR dual-polarization radar operated by the University of Alabama Huntsville during the event. The Doppler radar data indicates a circular enhanced reflectivity signal and rotational couplet in the radial velocity likely associated with the tornado that is spatially correlated with the damage tracks in the observed satellite data. An algorithm to detect and

  13. Tornado from Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vail, Kathleen

    1996-01-01

    Santa Fe School Superintendent Yvonne Gonzales, the "Texas Tornado," was hired to fix a 40% student-dropout rate and a white/Hispanic gap in achievement test scores. Gonzales is an avid integrationist; relies on humor, appeasement, and persuasion tactics; and has alienated some school employees by increasing central office…

  14. Cheniere forest as stopover habitat for migrant landbirds: Immediate effects of Hurricane Rita: Chapter 6D in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrow, Wylie; Chadwick, Paul; Couvillion, Brady R.; Doyle, Thomas; Faulkner, Stephen; Jeske, Clint; Michot, Tommy; Randall, Lori; Wells, Chris; Wilson, Scott

    2007-01-01

    It is not known whether en route fall migratory birds (August-October) are likely to suffer more from direct or secondary effects of hurricanes. On September 24, 2005, Hurricane Rita wreaked havoc on Louisiana's coast by toppling trees over vast areas and by stripping away microhabitats that harbor the invertebrates and produce the fruits upon which migrant landbirds depend (e.g., canopy foliage, vine tangles, epiphytes, leaf litter, and thickets of perennial plant species). Such transient effects of a hurricane on wildlife food resources are poorly understood, but these effects may have longterm consequences for some wildlife species.

  15. Subtropical Storm Andrea

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    The circling clouds of an intense low-pressure system sat off the southeast coast of the United States on May 8, 2007, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this image. By the following morning, the storm developed enough to be classified as a subtropical storm, a storm that forms outside of the tropics, but has many of the characteristics--hurricane-force winds, driving rains, low pressure, and sometimes an eye--of a tropical storm. Although it arrived several weeks shy of the official start of the hurricane season (June 1), Subtropical Storm Andrea became the first named storm of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm has the circular shape of a tropical cyclone in this image, but lacks the tight organization seen in more powerful storms. By May 9, the storm's winds reached 75 kilometers per hour (45 miles per hour), and the storm was not predicted to get any stronger, said the National Hurricane Center. Though Subtropical Storm Andrea was expected to remain offshore, its strong winds and high waves pummeled coastal states, prompting a tropical storm watch. The winds fueled wild fires (marked with red boxes) in Georgia and Florida. The wind-driven flames generated thick plumes of smoke that concentrated in a gray-brown mass over Tampa Bay, Florida. Unfortunately for Georgia and Florida, which are experiencing moderate to severe drought, Subtropical Storm Andrea was not predicted to bring significant rain to the region right away, according to reports on the Washington Post Website.

  16. Large-scale Vertical Motions, Intensity Change and Precipitation Associated with Land falling Hurricane Katrina over the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, S. R.; Kwembe, T.; Zhang, Z.

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the possible relationship between the large- scale heat fluxes and intensity change associated with the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. After reaching the category 5 intensity on August 28th , 2005 over the central Gulf of Mexico, Katrina weekend to category 3 before making landfall (August 29th , 2005) on the Louisiana coast with the maximum sustained winds of over 110 knots. We also examined the vertical motions associated with the intensity change of the hurricane. The data for Convective Available Potential Energy for water vapor (CAPE), sea level pressure and wind speed were obtained from the Atmospheric Soundings, and NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC), respectively for the period August 24 to September 3, 2005. We also computed vertical motions using CAPE values. The study showed that the large-scale heat fluxes reached maximum (7960W/m2) with the central pressure 905mb. The Convective Available Potential Energy and the vertical motions peaked 3-5 days before landfall. The large atmospheric vertical motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorm, tornadoes, storm surge and floods Numerical model (WRF/ARW) with data assimilations have been used for this research to investigate the model's performances on hurricane tracks and intensities associated with the hurricane Katrina, which began to strengthen until reaching Category 5 on 28 August 2005. The model was run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 hr periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model output was compared with the observations and is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track associated with hurricane Katrina.

  17. Hurricane Imaging Radiometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecil, Daniel J.; Biswas, Sayak K.; James, Mark W.; Roberts, J. Brent; Jones, W. Linwood; Johnson, James; Farrar, Spencer; Sahawneh, Saleem; Ruf, Christopher S.; Morris, Mary; hide

    2014-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a synthetic thinned array passive microwave radiometer designed to allow retrieval of surface wind speed in hurricanes, up through category five intensity. The retrieval technology follows the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which measures surface wind speed in hurricanes along a narrow strip beneath the aircraft. HIRAD maps wind speeds in a swath below the aircraft, about 50-60 km wide when flown in the lower stratosphere. HIRAD has flown in the NASA Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment in 2010 on a WB-57 aircraft, and on a Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) in 2012 and 2013 as part of NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) program. The GRIP program included flights over Hurricanes Earl and Karl (2010). The 2012 HS3 deployment did not include any hurricane flights for the UAS carrying HIRAD. The 2013 HS3 flights included one flight over the predecessor to TS Gabrielle, and one flight over Hurricane Ingrid. This presentation will describe the HIRAD instrument, its results from the 2010 and 2013 flights, and potential future developments.

  18. Doppler-radar wind-speed measurements in tornadoes: A comparison of real and simulated spectra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bluestein, H.B.; LaDue, J.G.; Stein, H.; Speheger, D. (Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK (United States)); Unruh, W.P. (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States))

    1993-01-01

    Bluestein and Unruh have discussed the advantages of using a portable doppler radar to map the wind field in tornadoes. during the spring of 1991 a storm-intercept team from the University of Oklahoma (OU) collected data near five supercell tornadoes in Oklahoma and Kansas. Details about the 1-W, 3-cm, 5-deg half-power beamwidth, CW/FM-CW Doppler radar we used and the methods of data collection and analysis are found in Bluestein and Unruh and Bluestein et al. Using the portable radar, we approximately doubled in only one year the number of tornado spectra that had been collected over a period of almost 20 years by NSSL's fixed-site Doppler radar. In this paper we will compare observed tornado wind spectra with simulated wind spectra (Zmic and Doviak 1975) in order to learn more about tornado structure.

  19. Chaotic Financial Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakimowicz, Aleksander

    In contemporary economies classic business cycles are increasingly changing their form undergoing a transformation into phenomena that have been nicknamed financial tornados. A generalization of the Lotka-Volterra model can be used to describe these fast-changing processes. Economically speaking, the most useful are such dynamical systems in which wormholes appear. This article features application of a model with one population of prey and two populations of predators in order to explain the global financial crisis and the consequent phenomena.

  20. Dual-Polarimetric Radar-Based Tornado Debris Paths Associated with EF-4 and EF-5 Tornadoes over Northern Alabama During the Historic Outbreak of 27 April 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Chrstopher J.; Schultz, Elise V.; Petersen, Walter A.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Knupp, Kevin R.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Darden, Christopher B.

    2012-01-01

    An historic tornado and severe weather outbreak devastated much of the southeastern United States between 25 and 28 April 2011. On 27 April 2011, northern Alabama was particularly hard hit by a large number of tornadoes, including several that reached EF-4 and EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita damage scale. In northern Alabama alone, there were approximately 100 fatalities and hundreds of more people who were injured or lost their homes during the havoc caused by these violent tornadic storms. Two long-track and violent (EF-4 and EF-5) tornadoes occurred within range of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band dual-polarimetric). A unique capability of dual-polarimetric radar is the near-real time identification of lofted debris associated with ongoing tornadoes on the ground. The focus of this paper is to analyze the dual-polarimetric radar-inferred tornado debris signatures and identify the associated debris paths of the long-track EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes near ARMOR. The relative locations of the debris and damage paths for each tornado will be ascertained by careful comparison of the ARMOR analysis with NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) satellite imagery of the tornado damage scenes and the National Weather Service tornado damage surveys. With the ongoing upgrade of the WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler) operational network to dual-polarimetry and a similar process having already taken place or ongoing for many private sector radars, dual-polarimetric radar signatures of tornado debris promise the potential to assist in the situational awareness of government and private sector forecasters and emergency managers during tornadic events. As such, a companion abstract (Schultz et al.) also submitted to this conference explores The use of dual-polarimetric tornadic debris

  1. Systematic Study of the Failure of a Light-Frame Wood Roof in a Tornado

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Standohar-Alfano

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Tornadoes are a particularly devastating natural hazard that affect communities across the United States, particularly the Midwest and South. They are unique from an engineering point-of-view due to their very low probability of occurrence but often highly destructive consequences. The 2011 season was particularly devastating to the Southeastern portion of the U.S. This paper presents a single case study of a 2012 tornado that struck a single large rural light-frame wood house with an unconventional roof system. A fragility methodology was used as a tool to probabilistically study the loss of the roof system, and bound an Enhanced Fujita (EF scale rating of the tornado. The tornado was initially rated as an EF3 tornado by the U.S. National Weather Service. However, following a detailed site inspection verified with numerical structural models, the tornado was downgraded to an EF2 tornado. As expected, the use of nail connections in a roof-to-wall connection resulted in a weaker link compared to a hurricane clip. The approach presented in this paper can be used as a supplement to the EF rating provided by U.S. National Weather Service meteorologists when unusual conditions in either the structure or surroundings exists.

  2. The recollective qualities of adolescents' and adults' narratives about a long-ago tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Patricia J; Stark, Emily N; Ackil, Jennifer K; Larkina, Marina; Merrill, Natalie; Fivush, Robyn

    2017-03-01

    The recollective qualities of autobiographical memory are thought to develop over the course of the first two decades of life. We used a 9-year follow-up test of recall of a devastating tornado and of non-tornado-related events from before and after the storm, to compare the recollective qualities of adolescents' (n = 20, ages 11 years, 11 months to 20 years, 8 months) and adults' (n = 14) autobiographical memories. At the time of the tornado, half of the adolescents had been younger than age 6. Nine years after the event, all participants provided evidence that they recall the event of the tornado. Adults also had high levels of recall of the non-tornado-related events. Adolescents recalled proportionally fewer non-tornado-related events; adolescents younger than 6 at the time of the events recalled the fewest non-tornado-related events. Relative to adolescents, adults produced longer narratives. With narrative length controlled, there were few differences in the recollective qualities of adolescents' and adults' narrative reports, especially in the case of the tornado; the recollective qualities were stronger among adolescents older at the time of the events. Overall, participants in both age groups provided evidence of the qualities of recollection that are characteristic of autobiographical memory.

  3. Tornado-related fatalities--five states, Southeastern United States, April 25-28, 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-20

    During April 25-28, 2011, a massive storm system generated 351 tornadoes (including 15 registering 4 or 5 on the Enhanced Fujita [EF] scale*), killing 338 persons in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee. This was the third-deadliest tornado event in the United States, surpassing an April 1974 event that resulted in 315 fatalities. This event also was historic because of the record number of fatalities that occurred despite modern advances in tornado forecasting, advanced warning times, and media coverage. Risk factors for death and injury from tornadoes are sheltering in mobile homes, proximity to an EF-4 or EF-5 tornado, being an older adult (aged ≥65 years), lack of accessibility to safe rooms (e.g., basements or reinforced shelters), and a night-time tornado impact. To describe the fatalities by demographic characteristics, type of shelter used, cause of death, and tornado severity and location, CDC reviewed data from the American Red Cross (Red Cross), death certificates, and the National Weather Service (NWS). This report summarizes the results of that review. Among the 338 decedents, median age was 55.0 years (range: 4 days-97 years); approximately one third were older adults. On tornado impact, 46.7% of decedents were in single-family homes, and 26.6% were in mobile homes. The leading cause of death was traumatic injury, including 21.9% with head injuries. Half of the deadly tornadoes were rated EF-4 or EF-5 and were responsible for 89.5% of the deaths. To prevent tornado-related deaths, health messaging should encourage the public (especially older adults and residents of mobile/manufactured homes) to pre-identify an accessible safe room, prepare the room with personal protection items (e.g., blankets and helmets), and monitor local weather.

  4. Storm and cloud dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Cotton, William R

    1992-01-01

    This book focuses on the dynamics of clouds and of precipitating mesoscale meteorological systems. Clouds and precipitating mesoscale systems represent some of the most important and scientifically exciting weather systems in the world. These are the systems that produce torrential rains, severe winds including downburst and tornadoes, hail, thunder and lightning, and major snow storms. Forecasting such storms represents a major challenge since they are too small to be adequately resolved by conventional observing networks and numerical prediction models.Key Features* Key Highlight

  5. Toward better assessment of tornado potential in typhoons: Significance of considering entrainment effects for CAPE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sueki, Kenta; Niino, Hiroshi

    2016-12-01

    The characteristics of typhoons that spawned tornadoes (tornadic typhoons: TTs) in Japan from 1991 to 2013 were investigated by composite analysis using the Japanese 55 year Reanalysis and compared with those of typhoons that did not spawn tornadoes (nontornadic typhoons: NTs). We found that convective available potential energy (CAPE), which considers the effects of entrainment (entraining CAPE: E-CAPE), and storm-relative environmental helicity (SREH) are significantly large in the northeast quadrant of TTs where tornadoes frequently occur and that E-CAPE and SREH in that quadrant for TTs are larger than those for NTs. On the other hand, ordinary CAPE without entrainment does not account for the spatial distribution of tornado occurrences nor does it distinguish TTs from NTs. E-CAPE is sensitive to humidity in the midtroposphere; thus, it is effective for detecting a conditionally unstable layer up to about 550 hPa, which is distinctive of TTs.

  6. Physically based modeling and animation of tornado

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Shi-guang; WANG Zhang-ye; GONG Zheng; CHEN Fei-fei; PENG Qun-sheng

    2006-01-01

    Realistic modeling and rendering of dynamic tornado scene is recognized as a challenging task for researchers of computer graphics. In this paper a new physically based method for simulating and animating tornado scene is presented. We first propose a Two-Fluid model based on the physical theory of tornado, then we simulate the flow of tornado and its interaction with surrounding objects such as debris, etc. Taking the scattering and absorption of light by the participating media into account, the illumination effects of the tornado scene can be generated realistically. With the support of graphics hardware, various kinds of dynamic tornado scenes can be rendered at interactive rates.

  7. Worldwide historical hurricane tracks from 1848 through the previous hurricane season

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This Historical Hurricane Tracks web site provides visualizations of storm tracks derived from the 6-hourly (0000, 0600, 1200, 1800 UTC) center locations and...

  8. Investigation of long-term hurricane activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, B.M.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach of applying numerical methods to model storm processes. A storm empirical track technique is utilized to simulate the full tracks of hurricanes, starting with their initial points over the sea and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations. The

  9. Investigation of long-term hurricane activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, B.M.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach of applying numerical methods to model storm processes. A storm empirical track technique is utilized to simulate the full tracks of hurricanes, starting with their initial points over the sea and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations. The theo

  10. Tornado type wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Cheng-Ting

    1984-01-01

    A tornado type wind turbine has a vertically disposed wind collecting tower with spaced apart inner and outer walls and a central bore. The upper end of the tower is open while the lower end of the structure is in communication with a wind intake chamber. An opening in the wind chamber is positioned over a turbine which is in driving communication with an electrical generator. An opening between the inner and outer walls at the lower end of the tower permits radially flowing air to enter the space between the inner and outer walls while a vertically disposed opening in the wind collecting tower permits tangentially flowing air to enter the central bore. A porous portion of the inner wall permits the radially flowing air to interact with the tangentially flowing air so as to create an intensified vortex flow which exits out of the top opening of the tower so as to create a low pressure core and thus draw air through the opening of the wind intake chamber so as to drive the turbine.

  11. Sounding-derived parameters associated with large hail and tornadoes in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenemeijer, P.H.; van Delden, A.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/072670703

    2007-01-01

    A study is presented focusing on the potential value of parameters derived from radiosonde data or data from numerical atmospheric models for the forecasting of severe weather associated with convective storms. Parameters have been derived from soundings in the proximity of large hail, tornadoes (in

  12. A long-lived tornado on 7 December 2010 in mainland Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belo-Pereira, Margarida; Andrade, Cristina; Pinto, Paulo

    2017-03-01

    On 7 December 2010 a long lived convective storm formed southwest of Lisbon in an instability line that developed in a very moist and unstable airmass, in the circulation of an extra-tropical cyclone propagating north-eastwards. This storm crossed the Lisbon district and spawned an F3 tornado a few dozens of kilometers to the northeast. Several parameters evaluating buoyancy, available moisture and vertical wind shear, were derived from Lisbon rawinsonde and ECMWF analyses, highlighting an environment that is favourable for tornadic development. The tornado touchdown occurred by 14:15 UTC, lasting for about 45 min and producing an exceptionally long damage path of around 54 km, according to the damage survey. It caused about 18 million Euros damage, > 40 injured people, but no fatalities. This storm had a very long lifetime of at least 5 h, intensified inland, sustained strong updrafts during, at least, 1 h and hold large hail cores as observed on radar. Exhibiting several supercell like features, it also produced intense lightning, with a predominance of cloud-to-ground flashes before the tornado touchdown and intra-cloud flashes during the tornado lifetime. Furthermore, in high resolution visible satellite imagery, a pattern of feeder clouds was identified one hour before tornadogenesis. This pattern has been associated to storm intensification and the onset of severe weather.

  13. Sounding-derived parameters associated with large hail and tornadoes in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenemeijer, P.H.; van Delden, A.J.

    2007-01-01

    A study is presented focusing on the potential value of parameters derived from radiosonde data or data from numerical atmospheric models for the forecasting of severe weather associated with convective storms. Parameters have been derived from soundings in the proximity of large hail, tornadoes (in

  14. Forecasting hurricane impact on coastal topography: Hurricane Ike

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Turco, Michael J.; East, Jeffery W.; Taylor, Arthur A.; Shaffer, Wilson A.

    2010-01-01

    Extreme storms can have a profound impact on coastal topography and thus on ecosystems and human-built structures within coastal regions. For instance, landfalls of several recent major hurricanes have caused significant changes to the U.S. coastline, particularly along the Gulf of Mexico. Some of these hurricanes (e.g., Ivan in 2004, Katrina and Rita in 2005, and Gustav and Ike in 2008) led to shoreline position changes of about 100 meters. Sand dunes, which protect the coast from waves and surge, eroded, losing several meters of elevation in the course of a single storm. Observations during these events raise the question of how storm-related changes affect the future vulnerability of a coast.

  15. Magnetohydrodynamic Models of Molecular Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Au, Kelvin; Fiege, Jason D.

    2017-07-01

    Recent observations near the Galactic Center (GC) have found several molecular filaments displaying striking helically wound morphology that are collectively known as molecular tornadoes. We investigate the equilibrium structure of these molecular tornadoes by formulating a magnetohydrodynamic model of a rotating, helically magnetized filament. A special analytical solution is derived where centrifugal forces balance exactly with toroidal magnetic stress. From the physics of torsional Alfvén waves we derive a constraint that links the toroidal flux-to-mass ratio and the pitch angle of the helical field to the rotation laws, which we find to be an important component in describing the molecular tornado structure. The models are compared to the Ostriker solution for isothermal, nonmagnetic, nonrotating filaments. We find that neither the analytic model nor the Alfvén wave model suffer from the unphysical density inversions noted by other authors. A Monte Carlo exploration of our parameter space is constrained by observational measurements of the Pigtail Molecular Cloud, the Double Helix Nebula, and the GC Molecular Tornado. Observable properties such as the velocity dispersion, filament radius, linear mass, and surface pressure can be used to derive three dimensionless constraints for our dimensionless models of these three objects. A virial analysis of these constrained models is studied for these three molecular tornadoes. We find that self-gravity is relatively unimportant, whereas magnetic fields and external pressure play a dominant role in the confinement and equilibrium radial structure of these objects.

  16. A Look Inside Hurricane Alma

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific started off with a whimper late last month as Alma, a Category 2 hurricane, slowly made its way up the coast of Baja California, packing sustained winds of 110 miles per hour and gusts of 135 miles per hour. The above image of the hurricane was acquired on May 29, 2002, and displays the rainfall rates occurring within the storm. Click the image above to see an animated data visualization (3.8 MB) of the interior of Hurricane Alma. The images of the clouds seen at the beginning of the movie were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's (NOAA's) Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite (GOES) network. As the movie continues, the clouds are peeled away to reveal an image of rainfall levels in the hurricane. The rainfall data were obtained by the Precipitation Radar aboard NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The Precipitation Radar bounces radio waves off of clouds to retrieve a reading of the number of large, rain-sized droplets within the clouds. Using these data, scientists can tell how much precipitation is occurring within and beneath a hurricane. In the movie, yellow denotes areas where 0.5 inches of rain is falling per hour, green denotes 1 inch per hour, and red denotes over 2 inches per hour. (Please note that high resolution still images of Hurricane Alma are available in the NASA Visible Earth in TIFF format.) Image and animation courtesy Lori Perkins, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

  17. Physical aspects of Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scatena, F.N.; Larsen, Matthew C.

    1991-01-01

    On 18 September 1989 the western part ofHurricane Hugo crossed eastern Puerto Rico and the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF). Storm-facing slopes on the northeastern part of the island that were within 15 km of the eye and received greater than 200 mm of rain were most affected by the storm. In the LEF and nearby area, recurrence intervals associated with Hurricane Hugo were 50 yr for wind velocity, 10 to 31 yr for stream discharge, and 5 yr for rainfall intensity. To compare the magnitudes of the six hurricanes to pass over PuertoRico since 1899, 3 indices were developed using the standardized values of the product of: the maximum sustained wind speed at San Juan squared and storm duration; the square of the product of the maximum sustained wind velocity at San Juan and the ratio of the distance between the hurricane eye and San Juan to the distance between the eye and percentage of average annual rainfall delivered by the storm. Based on these indices, HurricaneHugo was of moderate intensity. However, because of the path of Hurricane Hugo, only one of these six storms (the 1932 storm) caused more damage to the LEF than Hurricane Hugo. Hurricanes of Hugo's magnitude are estimated to pass over the LEF once every 50-60 yr, on average. 

  18. Pneumonia cases following an EF-5 tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forshee-Hakala, Beth A

    2015-07-01

    Infections following a natural disaster such as an EF-5 tornado can be atypical and difficult to treat. Studies have looked at illness following several natural disasters, but few have studied respiratory illness following a tornado. A review of patients with pneumonia admitted during the period from May 22, 2009, through May 21, 2012, was completed. The Tornado Zone Group included adult patients who lived or worked in the tornado zone during the year following the tornado. Data were isolated by number of pneumonia cases within and outside the tornado zone per month per year. An analysis of variance comparing the number of pneumonia cases from the tornado zone per month per year was significant at F2,38 = 12.93 and P Tornado Zone Group (P Tornado Zone patients to be younger than controls (t390 = 5.14; P Tornado Zone Group included uncommon pathogens not isolated during the 2 years prior. The number of pneumonia cases may increase following tornadoes. Although current guidelines recommend narrow-spectrum antibiotics for community-acquired pneumonia, results of this study suggest the possible need for broader antimicrobial coverage after tornadoes. Copyright © 2015 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Spatial-temporal clustering of tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malamud, Bruce D.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Brooks, Harold E.

    2016-12-01

    The standard measure of the intensity of a tornado is the Enhanced Fujita scale, which is based qualitatively on the damage caused by a tornado. An alternative measure of tornado intensity is the tornado path length, L. Here we examine the spatial-temporal clustering of severe tornadoes, which we define as having path lengths L ≥ 10 km. Of particular concern are tornado outbreaks, when a large number of severe tornadoes occur in a day in a restricted region. We apply a spatial-temporal clustering analysis developed for earthquakes. We take all pairs of severe tornadoes in observed and modelled outbreaks, and for each pair plot the spatial lag (distance between touchdown points) against the temporal lag (time between touchdown points). We apply our spatial-temporal lag methodology to the intense tornado outbreaks in the central United States on 26 and 27 April 2011, which resulted in over 300 fatalities and produced 109 severe (L ≥ 10 km) tornadoes. The patterns of spatial-temporal lag correlations that we obtain for the 2 days are strikingly different. On 26 April 2011, there were 45 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is dominated by a complex sequence of linear features. We associate the linear patterns with the tornadoes generated in either a single cell thunderstorm or a closely spaced cluster of single cell thunderstorms moving at a near-constant velocity. Our study of a derecho tornado outbreak of six severe tornadoes on 4 April 2011 along with modelled outbreak scenarios confirms this association. On 27 April 2011, there were 64 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is predominantly random with virtually no embedded linear patterns. We associate this pattern with a large number of interacting supercell thunderstorms generating tornadoes randomly in space and time. In order to better understand these associations, we also applied our approach to the Great Plains tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999. Careful studies by others have associated

  20. Spatial-Temporal Clustering of Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malamud, Bruce D.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Brooks, Harold E.

    2017-04-01

    The standard measure of the intensity of a tornado is the Enhanced Fujita scale, which is based qualitatively on the damage caused by a tornado. An alternative measure of tornado intensity is the tornado path length, L. Here we examine the spatial-temporal clustering of severe tornadoes, which we define as having path lengths L ≥ 10 km. Of particular concern are tornado outbreaks, when a large number of severe tornadoes occur in a day in a restricted region. We apply a spatial-temporal clustering analysis developed for earthquakes. We take all pairs of severe tornadoes in observed and modelled outbreaks, and for each pair plot the spatial lag (distance between touchdown points) against the temporal lag (time between touchdown points). We apply our spatial-temporal lag methodology to the intense tornado outbreaks in the central United States on 26 and 27 April 2011, which resulted in over 300 fatalities and produced 109 severe (L ≥ 10 km) tornadoes. The patterns of spatial-temporal lag correlations that we obtain for the 2 days are strikingly different. On 26 April 2011, there were 45 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is dominated by a complex sequence of linear features. We associate the linear patterns with the tornadoes generated in either a single cell thunderstorm or a closely spaced cluster of single cell thunderstorms moving at a near-constant velocity. Our study of a derecho tornado outbreak of six severe tornadoes on 4 April 2011 along with modelled outbreak scenarios confirms this association. On 27 April 2011, there were 64 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is predominantly random with virtually no embedded linear patterns. We associate this pattern with a large number of interacting supercell thunderstorms generating tornadoes randomly in space and time. In order to better understand these associations, we also applied our approach to the Great Plains tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999. Careful studies by others have associated

  1. PRACTICAL ALGORITHMS FOR TORNADO CODES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Tornado codes have been used in the error control of data transmission in IP network. The efficiency of this erasure codes is critically affected by the short cycles in its bipartite graph. To remove this effect,two algorithms are introduced: (1) while generating the graph, the cycle eliminating algorithm is used to reduce the number of the short cycles in it; (2) in the decoding algorithm, cycles that are inevitably in the graph are used to remove decoding efficiency degradation. The simulation results show that they have a better performance than that of general tornado codes.

  2. Thyroid storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyrotoxic storm; Hyperthyroid storm; Accelerated hyperthyroidism; Thyroid crisis; Thyrotoxicosis - thyroid storm ... Thyroid storm occurs due to a major stress such as trauma, heart attack , or infection. In rare ...

  3. Average velocity field of the air flow over the water surface in a laboratory modeling of storm and hurricane conditions in the ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandaurov, A. A.; Troitskaya, Yu. I.; Sergeev, D. A.; Vdovin, M. I.; Baidakov, G. A.

    2014-07-01

    Laboratory experiments on studying the structure of the turbulent air boundary layer over waves were carried out at the Wind-Wave Channel of the Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS), in conditions modeling the near-water boundary layer of the atmosphere under strong and hurricane winds and the equivalent wind velocities from 10 to 48 m/s at the standard height of 10 m. A modified technique of Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) was used to obtain turbulent pulsation averaged velocity fields of the air flow over the water surface curved by a wave and average profiles of the wind velocity. The measurements showed that the logarithmic part of the velocity profile of the air flow in the channel was observed in the immediate vicinity from the water surface (at a distance of 30 mm) and could be detected only using remote methods (PIV). According to the measured velocity profiles, dependences of aerodynamic drag factors of the water surface on the wind velocity at a height of 10 m were retrieved; they were compared with results of contact measurements carried out earlier on the same setup. It is shown that they agree with an accuracy of up to 20%; at moderate and strong wind velocities the coincidence falls within the experimental accuracy.

  4. Economics and societal impacts of tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bluestein, Howard B.

    2011-08-01

    During the spring of 2011, there were a record number of unusually strong and devastating tornadoes in the United States, which killed more than 500 people, the most in the country since 1953. Tornadoes are responsible for more than $1 billion annually (adjusted to 2007 U.S. dollars) in property damage and for disrupting thousands of lives and businesses. The most notable tornado this past spring devastated Joplin, Mo.; tornadoes also struck such diverse locations as Springfield, Mass.; Tuscaloosa, Ala.; Raleigh, N. C.; communities near Oklahoma City, Okla.; Minneapolis, Minn.; central and east Texas; Philadelphia, Pa.; and St. Louis, Mo. It is therefore timely to assess the economic and societal impacts of tornadoes. In this book the authors use various statistical techniques to evaluate the cost of tornadoes to society. They begin by reviewing the methodologies of formulating a tornado climatology across diverse regions according to tornado intensity, deaths, injuries, and property damage, and they then provide a history of the U.S. National Weather Service's (NWS) public warning efforts, describe tornado shelters and how the public responds to warnings, and suggest ways to reduce tornado risk.

  5. Hurricane Season

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JENNIFER; JETT

    2008-01-01

    Three years after Katrina,the United States isdetermined not to repeatits mistakes This year has seen an unusually activeand deadly hurricane season, asstorms line up in the Atlantic Oceanto pummel the Caribbean and UnitedStates coastline.

  6. Generic Hurricane Extreme Seas State

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wehmeyer, Christof; Skourup, Jesper; Frigaard, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Extreme sea states, which the IEC 61400-3 (2008) standard requires for the ultimate limit state (ULS) analysis of offshore wind turbines are derived to establish the design basis for the conceptual layout of deep water floating offshore wind turbine foundations in hurricane affected areas...... data is required for a type specific conceptual design. ULS conditions for different return periods are developed, which can subsequently be applied in siteindependent analysis and conceptual design. Recordings provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), of hurricanes along...... for hurricane generates seas by Young (1998, 2003, and 2006), requiring maximum wind speeds, forward velocity and radius to maximum wind speed. An averaged radius to maximum sustained wind speeds, according to Hsu et al. (1998) and averaged forward speed of cyclonic storms are applied in the initial state...

  7. Teacher Guidelines for Helping Students after a Hurricane

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Child Traumatic Stress Network, 2013

    2013-01-01

    Being in a hurricane can be very frightening, and the days, weeks, and months following the storm can be very stressful. Most families recover over time, especially with the support of relatives, friends, and their community. But different families may have different experiences during and after a hurricane, and how long it takes them to recover…

  8. Teacher Guidelines for Helping Students after a Hurricane

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Child Traumatic Stress Network, 2013

    2013-01-01

    Being in a hurricane can be very frightening, and the days, weeks, and months following the storm can be very stressful. Most families recover over time, especially with the support of relatives, friends, and their community. But different families may have different experiences during and after a hurricane, and how long it takes them to recover…

  9. Hurricane Excitation of Earth Eigenmodes

    OpenAIRE

    Peters, Randall D.

    2005-01-01

    A non-conventional vertical seismometer, with good low-frequency sensitivity, was used to study earth motions in Macon, Georgia USA during the time of hurricane Charley, August 2004. During its transitions between water and land, the powerful storm showed an interesting history of microseisms and also generated more than half-a-dozen surprisingly coherent oscillations, whose frequencies ranged from 0.9 to 3 mHz.

  10. An Analysis of Operational Total Lightning Data During Long-Track Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carcione, Brian C.; Stano, Geoffrey T.

    2012-01-01

    The 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak brought three distinct waves of tornadic thunderstorms to portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia, striking the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama and southern Tennessee particularly hard. A total of 42 tornado paths were surveyed across the fourteen county area covered by the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office in Huntsville, Alabama. Ten of these tornadoes were on the ground for at least 20 miles, two had total path lengths over 130 miles, and six tornadoes were classified as violent (EF-4 or EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale). Many of these tornadoes occurred within the domain of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA), a ground-based total lightning detection network owned and operated by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Since 2003, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center has supplied data from NALMA in real time to NWS forecast offices in Huntsville, Knoxville/Tri-Cities, Birmingham, and Nashville. Previous research has documented the utility of total lightning information in predicting tornadogenesis, particularly when combined with other remote sensing tools. Basic warning decision-making during events such as 27 April is not the most difficult part of the process; instead, the focus of warning meteorologists shifts to looking for changes in intensity or possible particularly dangerous situations, since doppler radar velocity data often cannot distinguish between weak and strong tornadoes. To that end, this research attempts to determine if any correlation exists between flash densities of the longest-tracked tornadoes over time, and the surveyed wind speeds of the tornadoes. The long-track EF-5 tornado which struck the Hackleburg, Phil Campbell, and Tanner communities in north Alabama was the primary focus of this research due to its intensity and extended life cycle. However, not all tornadoes were available for total lightning analysis due to widespread

  11. Massive pediatric neurosurgical injuries and lessons learned following a tornado disaster in Alabama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chern, Joshua J; Miller, Joseph H; Tubbs, R Shane; Whisenhunt, Thomas R; Johnston, James M; Wellons, John C; Rozzelle, Curtis J; Blount, Jeffrey P; Oakes, W Jerry

    2011-12-01

    A large volume of patients presented to a Level I pediatric trauma center during and after a recent tornado disaster. Injuries of the central and peripheral nervous systems and the medical responses of a pediatric neurosurgical team are reviewed. The clinical courses of patients who suffered cranial, spinal, and peripheral nerve injuries due to the tornado storm are reported. The clinical actions taken by the neurosurgical team during and after the event are reviewed and the lessons learned are discussed. The tornado storm system moved through the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham metropolitan areas on the early evening hours of April 27, 2011. Twenty-four patients received care from the neurosurgical team. A total of 11 cranial (including placement of an external ventricular drain), 2 spine, and 2 peripheral procedures were performed for the victims. Nine procedures were performed within the first 12 hours of the event, and an additional 6 surgeries were performed in the following 24 hours. Injuries of the peripheral nervous system often presented in a delayed fashion. Several key components were identified that enabled adequate neurosurgical care for a large influx of acute patients. Massive casualties due to tornados are rare. A well-organized physician team working with the hospital administration may decrease the mortality and morbidity of such events.

  12. Reconnaissance level study Mississippi storm surge barrier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Ledden, M.; Lansen, A.J.; De Ridder, H.A.J.; Edge, B.

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports a reconnaissance level study of a storm surge barrier in the Mississippi River. Historical hurricanes have shown storm surge of several meters along the Mississippi River levees up to and upstream of New Orleans. Future changes due to sea level rise and subsidence will further

  13. Reconnaissance level study Mississippi storm surge barrier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Ledden, M.; Lansen, A.J.; De Ridder, H.A.J.; Edge, B.

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports a reconnaissance level study of a storm surge barrier in the Mississippi River. Historical hurricanes have shown storm surge of several meters along the Mississippi River levees up to and upstream of New Orleans. Future changes due to sea level rise and subsidence will further inc

  14. Atlantic hurricane response to geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, John; Grinsted, Aslak; Ji, Duoying; Yu, Xiaoyong; Guo, Xiaoran

    2015-04-01

    Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase - perhaps by a factor of 5 for a 2°C mean global warming. Geoengineering by sulphate aerosol injection preferentially cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 6 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. We find that although temperatures are ameliorated by geoengineering, the numbers of storm surge events as big as that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are only slightly reduced compared with no geoengineering. As higher levels of sulphate aerosol injection produce diminishing returns in terms of cooling, but cause undesirable effects in various regions, it seems that stratospheric aerosol geoengineering is not an effective method of controlling hurricane damage.

  15. Spectrum of infrasound radiation from supercell storms

    CERN Document Server

    Akhalkatsi, Mariam

    2010-01-01

    We consider the generation of acoustic waves by turbulent convection and perform spectral analysis of a monopole source of sound related to the heat production by condensation of moisture. A quantitative explanation of the correlation between intensity of infrasound generated by supercell storms and later tornado formation is given. It is shown that low lifting condensation level (LCL) and high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE), which are known to favor significant tornadoes, also lead to a strong enhancement of supercell's low frequency acoustic radiation.

  16. Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Kiju; Shavitt, Sharon; Viswanathan, Madhu; Hilbe, Joseph M

    2014-06-17

    Do people judge hurricane risks in the context of gender-based expectations? We use more than six decades of death rates from US hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes. Laboratory experiments indicate that this is because hurricane names lead to gender-based expectations about severity and this, in turn, guides respondents' preparedness to take protective action. This finding indicates an unfortunate and unintended consequence of the gendered naming of hurricanes, with important implications for policymakers, media practitioners, and the general public concerning hurricane communication and preparedness.

  17. A solar tornado triggered by flares?

    CERN Document Server

    Panesar, N K; Tiwari, S K; Low, B C

    2012-01-01

    Solar tornados are dynamical, conspicuously helical magnetic structures mainly observed as a prominence activity. We investigate and propose a triggering mechanism for the solar tornado observed in a prominence cavity by SDO/AIA on September 25, 2011. High-cadence EUV images from the SDO/AIA and the Ahead spacecraft of STEREO/EUVI are used to correlate three flares in the neighbouring active-region (NOAA 11303), and their EUV waves, with the dynamical developments of the tornado. The timings of the flares and EUV waves observed on-disk in 195\\AA\\ are analyzed in relation to the tornado activities observed at the limb in 171\\AA. Each of the three flares and its related EUV wave occurred within 10 hours of the onset of the tornado. They have an observed causal relationship with the commencement of activity in the prominence where the tornado develops. Tornado-like rotations along the side of the prominence start after the second flare. The prominence cavity expands with acceleration of tornado motion after the ...

  18. Coastal Change During Hurricane Isabel 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Karen

    2009-01-01

    On September 18, 2003, Hurricane Isabel made landfall on the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina. At the U.S. Army Corps of Engineer's Field Research Facility in Duck, 125 km north of where the eyewall cut across Hatteras Island, the Category 2 storm generated record conditions for the 27 years of monitoring. The storm produced an 8.1 m high wave measured at a waverider buoy in 20 m of water and a 1.5 m storm surge. As part of a program to document and better understand the changes in vulnerability of the Nation's coasts to extreme storms, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), surveyed the impact zone of Hurricane Isabel. Methods included pre- and post-storm photography, videography, and lidar. Hurricane Isabel caused extensive erosion and overwash along the Outer Banks near Cape Hatteras, including the destruction of houses, the erosion of protective sand dunes, and the creation of island breaches. The storm eroded beaches and dunes in Frisco and Hatteras Village, southwest of the Cape. Overwash deposits covered roads and filled homes with sand. The most extensive beach changes were associated with the opening of a new breach about 500 m wide that divided into three separate channels that completely severed the island southwest of Cape Hatteras. The main breach, and a smaller one several kilometers to the south (not shown), occurred at minima in both island elevation and island width.

  19. Role of Central American biomass burning smoke in increasing tornado severity in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saide, P. E.; Spak, S.; Pierce, R.; Otkin, J.; Rabin, R.; Schaack, T.; Heidinger, A. K.; da Silva, A.; Kacenelenbogen, M. S.; Redemann, J.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2013-12-01

    Violent tornadoes in the Southeast and Central US during spring are often accompanied by smoke from biomass burning in Central America. We analyzed the effect of smoke on a historic severe weather outbreak that occurred 27 April 2011 using a coupled aerosol, chemistry and weather model (WRF-Chem) and a suite of satellite and ground-based observations. Smoke from Central American biomass burning was present in the boundary layer and lower free troposphere before and during the storm outbreak. Simulations show that adding smoke to the environment already conducive to severe thunderstorm development increases the likelihood of significant tornado occurrence, which is assessed by analyzing effects of smoke on meteorological conditions (tornado parameters) used by prediction centers to forecast tornado occurrence and severity. Smoke effects generate slightly lower rain rates and cloud top heights, indicating no evidence of storm invigoration for these storms and instead pointing towards convection inhibition. Further analysis shows that there are two mechanisms responsible for the parameter intensification: First, through indirect effects, stratiform clouds present during and before the outbreak became optically thicker, which reduced the amount of solar radiation reaching the ground and produced more stable conditions and higher low-level shear in the mixed layer. Second, through semi-direct effects, soot contained in the smoke heated the aerosol layer stabilizing the atmosphere and enhancing cloud cover below the aerosol layer, producing a more stable boundary layer and conditions leading to higher probability of violent tornadoes. The inclusion of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in weather forecasts may help improve the predictability of these extreme events, which can improve the timeliness and accuracy of severe weather alerts within future operational forecast systems. Left panel: Back trajectories from the beginning of violent tornado tracks, with circles

  20. Hurricane Resource Reel

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This Reel Includes the Following Sections TRT 50:10 Hurricane Overviews 1:02; Hurricane Arthur 15:07; Cyclone Pam 19:48; Typhoon Hagupit 21:27; Hurricane Bertha...

  1. Hurricane Evacuation Routes

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Hurricane Evacuation Routes in the United States A hurricane evacuation route is a designated route used to direct traffic inland in case of a hurricane threat. This...

  2. Tornado

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dorine; Houston

    1998-01-01

    Dear Xiao Lan, As you know, we Americans are very busy these days ; Jews are celebrating theirgreat feast of Passover, and Christians are observing the most solemn Good Fridaytoday, with the joyful Easter to come on Sunday. In the midst of these busy days offestival preparations, nature has gone crazy and ravaged entire towns in two southern

  3. Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants Power Outages Pandemic Radiological Dispersion Device Severe Weather Snowstorms & Extreme ... Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants Power Outages Pandemic Radiological Dispersion Device Severe Weather Snowstorms & Extreme ...

  4. Hurricane damaged fixed platforms and wellhead structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shuttleworth, E.P.; Frieze, P.A.

    1998-03-01

    The objective of this study was to review data on damages to offshore platforms with a view to determining their suitability for further exploitation and analysis through a preliminary assessment of trends in the data when viewed from a risk standpoint. To realise this objective, a database on hurricane and other storm related damages was generated and past design practice, particularly concerning environmental load levels, was established. Information was gathered on extreme wave heights, damages, platform details, pushover analyses and structural frame load tests. The information was obtained through: a literature survey of journals, conference proceedings, design codes and guidelines; approaches to organisations in the offshore industry with significant experience of hurricanes, storm-damaged structures and pushover analyses; and interrogation of three major databases on offshore storm and other damages - PMB, MMS and WOAD. (author)

  5. Examining Pacific and Atlantic Hurricane Stage Duration and Length Since 1980

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wachtel, C. J.; Godek, M. L.

    2015-12-01

    Examining Pacific and Atlantic Hurricane Stage Duration and Length Since 1980Cassidy Wachtel and Melissa L. GodekDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, State University of New York College at Oneonta, New York 13820 Abstract:Each year hurricanes impact thousands of people and over time changes in hurricane characteristics, such as intensity and frequency, have been identified. This study aims to examine changes in hurricane stage duration and track length of West Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes between 1980 and 2013. Category 2 through 5 hurricanes are analyzed as they evolved through the full life cycle of a hurricane (tropical depression to tropical storm to category). The NOAA National Ocean Service hurricane reanalysis datasets are used to identify 286 storms which are statistically analyzed by category for 1) temporal changes in stage duration with time and 2) temporal changes in stage track lengths with time. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory daily mean composites of variables such as vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures are then examined to explain the temporal tendencies that may be related to climate change. Preliminary results indicate that category 2, 4 and 5 storms experienced an overall decrease in stage duration since 1980. For storms of these magnitudes, generally more rapid intensification to category has occurred over time. Contrarily, increased stage duration is detected for hurricanes that reached category 3 status, showing that these storms have strengthened more slowly with time. In all categories, a few unique cases occurred that exhibited stage durations greater than 1 standard deviation from the mean of the long term trend. These cases require further scrutiny for the environmental conditions that might explain the anomalous departures. Keywords: Hurricanes, West Atlantic Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, Storm Tracks, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression, Hurricane Stage

  6. Impact of dual-polarization radar technology and Twitter on the Hattiesburg, Mississippi tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cates, Alexis L; Arnold, Brent W; Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Stake, Josh; Ali, Mohammed; Calderone, Richard C; Wilkinson, James; Hsu, Edbert; Parrillo, Steven; Piper, Steven; Subbarao, Italo

    2013-12-01

    Dual-Polarization Radar and Twitter were analyzed to determine the impact on injuries sustained by the Hattiesburg EF-4 tornado. Tracking data provided from the Dual-Pol radar systems in National Weather Service Jackson were reviewed. Twitter data from four local Twitter handles were obtained. The change in tweets and followers for the day of the storm were compared to historical averages. A Student t-test was utilized in determining statistical significance (ptornado. An Injury Severity Score (ISS) was calculated for trauma records related to the tornado. Radar detection of the tornado gave approximately 30 minutes of advanced warning time. Statistical significance in follower growth was seen in all four Twitter handles. Out of 50 patients, the average ISS was 3.9 with a range of 1 to 29. There were zero fatalities. An ISS average of 3.9 was significantly less than two previous tornadoes of similar strength that occurred prior to increased usage of Dual-pol radar and Twitter as a means for communicating severe weather information. Early detection from Dual-pol radar improved warning time. Tweets informed citizens to seek appropriate shelter. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2013;7:585-592).

  7. Hurricane Charley Exposure and Hazard of Preterm Delivery, Florida 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabich, Shannon C; Robinson, Whitney R; Engel, Stephanie M; Konrad, Charles E; Richardson, David B; Horney, Jennifer A

    2016-12-01

    Objective Hurricanes are powerful tropical storm systems with high winds which influence many health effects. Few studies have examined whether hurricane exposure is associated with preterm delivery. We aimed to estimate associations between maternal hurricane exposure and hazard of preterm delivery. Methods We used data on 342,942 singleton births from Florida Vital Statistics Records 2004-2005 to capture pregnancies at risk of delivery during the 2004 hurricane season. Maternal exposure to Hurricane Charley was assigned based on maximum wind speed in maternal county of residence. We estimated hazards of overall preterm delivery (<37 gestational weeks) and extremely preterm delivery (<32 gestational weeks) in Cox regression models, adjusting for maternal/pregnancy characteristics. To evaluate heterogeneity among racial/ethnic subgroups, we performed analyses stratified by race/ethnicity. Additional models investigated whether exposure to multiples hurricanes increased hazard relative to exposure to one hurricane. Results Exposure to wind speeds ≥39 mph from Hurricane Charley was associated with a 9 % (95 % CI 3, 16 %) increase in hazard of extremely preterm delivery, while exposure to wind speed ≥74 mph was associated with a 21 % (95 % CI 6, 38 %) increase. Associations appeared greater for Hispanic mothers compared to non-Hispanic white mothers. Hurricane exposure did not appear to be associated with hazard of overall preterm delivery. Exposure to multiple hurricanes did not appear more harmful than exposure to a single hurricane. Conclusions Hurricane exposure may increase hazard of extremely preterm delivery. As US coastal populations and hurricane severity increase, the associations between hurricane and preterm delivery should be further studied.

  8. 44 CFR 208.2 - Definitions of terms used in this part.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... and Rescue (US&R), and other specialists combined to provide operations, planning, logistics, finance... (including any hurricane, tornado, storm, high water, wind driven water, tidal wave, tsunami,...

  9. Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettle, Anthony

    2016-04-01

    Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the

  10. Exploring links between biomass burning smoke and tornado likelihood: From regional to large-eddy scale simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saide, P. E.; Thompson, G.; Eidhammer, T.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Pierce, R. B.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2015-12-01

    Biomass burning smoke from Central America can have the potential to enhance the likelihood of tornado occurrence and intensity in the SE US by changing the environment where tornadic storms form (Saide et al., GRL 2015). In this presentation we build over this study to further our understanding of these interactions on multiple dimensions: 1) Biomass burning smoke emissions are constrained using an inverse modeling technique to improve the representation of smoke loads and its impacts, 2) The representation of these smoke-tornado interactions are assessed when using a simplified aerosol scheme with the intent of introducing these feedbacks into numerical weather prediction in the future, 3) The occurrence of these interactions is investigated for other tornado outbreaks on the record to learn about their frequency and under what conditions they occur, and 4) Multi-scale simulations are performed from regional to tornado-resolving scales to assess the impact of smoke on the number of tornadoes formed and their EF intensity. Future steps will also be discussed. The image below shows MODIS-Aqua satellite products for 27 April 2011 over the southeast US, Central America and the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), along with tornado tracks (red solid lines, thickness indicates the magnitude of the tornado reports , thickest=5, thinnest=1) for the period from April 26-28. The background is a true color image of the surface, clouds, and smoke, with yellow markers indicating fire detections and an iridescent overlay showing aerosol optical depth (AOD). Red, green and purple colors show high (1.0), medium (0.6) and low (0.1) AOD values. The article by Saide et al. (2015) shows that the increase in aerosol loads in the GoM is produced by fires in Central America, and this smoke is further transported to the southeast US where it can interact with clouds and radiation producing environmental conditions more favorable to significant tornado occurrence for the historical outbreak on 27

  11. Annihilation and Reanimation of a Tornado in the Improved Tornado Tube

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarek, Stanislaw

    2016-01-01

    Some new experiments using an improved version of the "tornado tube" are described here. The improved tornado tube consists of two plastic transparent bottles whose openings are connected with a ball valve, available at most hardware stores. After being filled with fluid and inverting, this tube allows demonstration of the generation,…

  12. Annihilation and Reanimation of a Tornado in the Improved Tornado Tube

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarek, Stanislaw

    2016-01-01

    Some new experiments using an improved version of the "tornado tube" are described here. The improved tornado tube consists of two plastic transparent bottles whose openings are connected with a ball valve, available at most hardware stores. After being filled with fluid and inverting, this tube allows demonstration of the generation,…

  13. Observing storm surges from satellite altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Guoqi

    2016-07-01

    Storm surges can cause catastrophic damage to properties and loss of life in coastal communities. Thus it is important to enhance our capabilities of observing and forecasting storm surges for mitigating damage and loss. In this presentation we show examples of observing storm surges around the world using nadir satellite altimetry, during Hurricane Sandy, Igor, and Isaac, as well as other cyclone events. The satellite observations are evaluated against tide-gauge observations and discussed for dynamic mechanisms. We also show the potential of a new wide-swath altimetry mission, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), for observing storm surges.

  14. Using a Geographic Information System to Assess the Risk of Hurricane Hazards on the Maya Civilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Sever, T.

    2014-12-01

    The extent of the Maya civilization spanned across portions of modern day Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Paleoclimatic studies suggest this region has been affected by strong hurricanes for the past six thousand years, reinforced by archeological evidence from Mayan records indicating they experienced strong storms. It is theorized hurricanes aided in the collapse of the Maya, damaging building structures, agriculture, and ceasing industry activities. Today, this region is known for its active tropical climatology, being hit by numerous strong storms including Hurricane Dean, Iris, Keith, and Mitch. This research uses a geographic information system (GIS) to model hurricane hazards, and assess the risk posed on the Maya civilization. GIS has the ability to handle various layer components making it optimal for combining parameters necessary for assessing the risk of experiencing hurricane related hazards. For this analysis, high winds, storm surge flooding, non-storm surge related flooding, and rainfall triggered landslides were selected as the primary hurricane hazards. Data sets used in this analysis include the National Climatic Data Center International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardships (IBTrACS) hurricane tracks, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model, WorldClim monthly accumulated precipitation, USGS HydroSHEDS river locations, Harmonized World Soil Database soil types, and known Maya site locations from the Electronic Atlas of Ancient Maya Sites. ArcGIS and ENVI software were utilized to process data and model hurricane hazards. To assess locations at risk of experiencing high winds, a model was created using ArcGIS Model Builder to map each storm's temporal wind profile, and adapted to simulate forward storm velocity, and storm frequency. Modeled results were then combined with physical land characteristics, meteorological, and hydrologic data to identify areas likely affected. Certain areas along the eastern

  15. More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E.

    2016-12-01

    Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming.

  16. Using Satellite Imagery to Identify Tornado Damage Tracks and Recovery from the April 27, 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Tony A.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Bell, Jordan R.

    2014-01-01

    Emergency response to natural disasters requires coordination between multiple local, state, and federal agencies. Single, relatively weak tornado events may require comparatively simple response efforts; but larger "outbreak" events with multiple strong, long-track tornadoes can benefit from additional tools to help expedite these efforts. Meteorologists from NOAA's National Weather Service conduct field surveys to map tornado tracks, assess damage, and determine the tornado intensity following each event. Moderate and high resolution satellite imagery can support these surveys by providing a high-level view of the affected areas. Satellite imagery could then be used to target areas for immediate survey or to corroborate the results of the survey after it is completed. In this study, the feasibility of using satellite imagery to identify tornado damage tracks was determined by comparing the characteristics of tracks observed from low-earth orbit to tracks assessed during the official NWS storm survey process. Of the 68 NWS confirmed centerlines, 24 tracks (35.3%) could be distinguished from other surface features using satellite imagery. Within each EF category, 0% of EF-0, 3% of EF-1, 50% of EF-2, 77.7% of EF-3, 87.5% of EF-4 and 100% of EF-5 tornadoes were detected. It was shown that satellite data can be used to identify tornado damage tracks in MODIS and ASTER NDVI imagery, where damage to vegetation creates a sharp drop in values though the minimum EF-category which can be detected is dependent upon the type of sensor used and underlying vegetation. Near-real time data from moderate resolution sensors compare favorably to field surveys after the event and suggest that the data can provide some value in the assessment process.

  17. FEMA Database Requirements Assessment and Resource Directory Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-05-01

    hurricane waves; storm waves; seismic sea waves; tsunami; seiche; storm surges ; storm tides b. Tornadoes or cyclones; typhoons; water spouts; gale winds...P. U 10. Geologic (Land-Related) Natural Disasters , - a. Volcanic eruptions; lava; ashfalls or ashflows; pyroclastic b. Subsidence; sinkholes...earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, floods, tornadoes and tsunamis (water surges produced by submarine earthquakes). Geophysical predictions can

  18. A team approach to preparing for hurricanes and other disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendig, Jim

    2009-01-01

    Applying lessons learned in Hurricane Floyd in 1999, a three-hospital system located on Florida's exposed Space Coast was able to better deal with the devastation caused by hurricanes in 2004 and make changes in its plans to better prepare for the named storms which hit its area in 2008. Each new disaster, the author points out, brings with it new challenges which have to be considered in disaster planning.

  19. Storm Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tammy; Kier, Meredith; Phillips, Kelsey

    2016-01-01

    To show students how engineering design practices reduce the impacts of a natural hazard, the authors--two science educators and an elementary teacher--taught a three-day 5E lesson that focused on hurricanes. They specifically focused on hurricanes because their students are located near a coastal area and are familiar with the effects of this…

  20. The Storm in The Storm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王颖

    2015-01-01

    The Storm tells a story about sexual issues that two former lovers met in a stormy day and spent a short period of happy time together. In this story, the storm plays an important part,which is just like the thread that joins the plots together, both in natural storm and in feeling storm. It is the driving force behind the story and the affair. As the storm begins climaxes and ends so do the affair and the story. From the appearance, the storm has no harm. Actually, the storm in feeling is bad for the marriage, even in current times, so the story make people speculate the loyalty to the marriage.

  1. Hurricane Ike: Field Investigation Survey (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, L.

    2009-12-01

    Hurricane Ike made landfall at 2:10 a.m. on September 13, 2008, as a Category 2 hurricane. The eye of the hurricane crossed over the eastern end of Galveston Island and a large region of the Texas and Louisiana coast experienced extreme winds, waves and water levels, resulting in large impacts from overtopping, overwash, wind and wave forces and flooding. Major damage stretched from Freeport to the southwest and to Port Arthur to the northeast. The effects of the hurricane force winds were felt well inland in Texas and Louisiana and the storm continued to the interior of the US, causing more damage and loss of life. Through the support of the Coasts, Oceans, Ports and Rivers Institute (COPRI) of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) a team of 14 coastal scientists and engineers inspected the upper Texas coast in early October 2008. The COPRI team surveyed Hurricane Ike’s effects on coastal landforms, structures, marinas, shore protection systems, and other infrastructure. Damages ranges from very minor to complete destruction, depending upon location and elevation. Bolivar Peninsula, to the right of the hurricane path, experienced severe damage and three peninsula communities were completely destroyed. Significant flood and wave damage also was observed in Galveston Island and Brazoria County that were both on the left side of the hurricane path. Beach erosion and prominent overwash fans were observed throughout much of the field investigation area. The post-storm damage survey served to confirm expected performance under extreme conditions, as well as to evaluate recent development trends and conditions unique to each storm. Hurricane Ike confirmed many previously reported observations. One of the main conclusions from the inspection of buildings was that elevation was a key determinant for survival. Elevation is also a major factor in the stability and effectiveness of shore protection. The Galveston Seawall was high enough to provide protection from

  2. Cold wake of Hurricane Frances

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Asaro, Eric A.; Sanford, Thomas B.; Niiler, P. Peter; Terrill, Eric J.

    2007-08-01

    An array of instruments air-deployed ahead of Hurricane Frances measured the three-dimensional, time dependent response of the ocean to this strong (60 ms-1) storm. Sea surface temperature cooled by up to 2.2°C with the greatest cooling occurring in a 50-km-wide band centered 60-85 km to the right of the track. The cooling was almost entirely due to vertical mixing, not air-sea heat fluxes. Currents of up to 1.6 ms-1 and thermocline displacements of up to 50 m dispersed as near-inertial internal waves. The heat in excess of 26°C, decreased behind the storm due primarily to horizontal advection of heat away from the storm track, with a small contribution from mixing across the 26°C isotherm. SST cooling under the storm core (0.4°C) produced a 16% decrease in air-sea heat flux implying an approximately 5 ms-1 reduction in peak winds

  3. Dynamic Hurricane Data Analysis Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knosp, Brian W.; Li, Peggy; Vu, Quoc A.

    2009-01-01

    A dynamic hurricane data analysis tool allows users of the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) to analyze data over a Web medium. The TCIS software is described in the previous article, Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) (NPO-45748). This tool interfaces with the TCIS database to pull in data from several different atmospheric and oceanic data sets, both observed by instruments. Users can use this information to generate histograms, maps, and profile plots for specific storms. The tool also displays statistical values for the user-selected parameter for the mean, standard deviation, median, minimum, and maximum values. There is little wait time, allowing for fast data plots over date and spatial ranges. Users may also zoom-in for a closer look at a particular spatial range. This is version 1 of the software. Researchers will use the data and tools on the TCIS to understand hurricane processes, improve hurricane forecast models and identify what types of measurements the next generation of instruments will need to collect.

  4. Hurricane Sandy: Shared Trauma and Therapist Self-Disclosure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Nyapati; Mehra, Ashwin

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy was one of the most devastating storms to hit the United States in history. The impact of the hurricane included power outages, flooding in the New York City subway system and East River tunnels, disrupted communications, acute shortages of gasoline and food, and a death toll of 113 people. In addition, thousands of residences and businesses in New Jersey and New York were destroyed. This article chronicles the first author's personal and professional experiences as a survivor of the hurricane, more specifically in the dual roles of provider and trauma victim, involving informed self-disclosure with a patient who was also a victim of the hurricane. The general analytic framework of therapy is evaluated in the context of the shared trauma faced by patient and provider alike in the face of the hurricane, leading to important implications for future work on resilience and recovery for both the therapist and patient.

  5. How Unique was Hurricane Sandy? Sedimentary Reconstructions of Extreme Flooding from New York Harbor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon, Christine M.; Woodruff, Jonathan D.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Sullivan, Richard M.

    2014-12-01

    The magnitude of flooding in New York City by Hurricane Sandy is commonly believed to be extremely rare, with estimated return periods near or greater than 1000 years. However, the brevity of tide gauge records result in significant uncertainties when estimating the uniqueness of such an event. Here we compare resultant deposition by Hurricane Sandy to earlier storm-induced flood layers in order to extend records of flooding to the city beyond the instrumental dataset. Inversely modeled storm conditions from grain size trends show that a more compact yet more intense hurricane in 1821 CE probably resulted in a similar storm tide and a significantly larger storm surge. Our results indicate the occurrence of additional flood events like Hurricane Sandy in recent centuries, and highlight the inadequacies of the instrumental record in estimating current flood risk by such extreme events.

  6. Hurricane wrack generates landscape-level heterogeneity in coastal pine savanna

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Wrack (vegetation debris) deposited by storm surges of major hurricanes along the northern Gulf of Mexico produces depressant eff ects that vary from partial to...

  7. NOAA/National Hurricane Center Preliminary Best Track Tropical Cyclone Tracks WMS/WFS (Dynamic Filtering)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Prototype Web Map Service and Web Feature Service containing NOAA National Hurricane Center preliminary 'best track' information for past storms for the Atlantic and...

  8. Self-organization in the tornado: the new approach in the tornado description

    CERN Document Server

    Bystrai, G P

    2012-01-01

    For the mathematical modeling of highly non-equilibrium and nonlinear processes in a tornado in this paper a new approach based on nonlinear equations of momentum transfer with function of sources and sinks is suggested. In constructing the model thermodynamic description is used, which is not entered before and allows discovering new principles of self-organization in a tornado. This approach gives fairly consistent physical results. This is an attempt to answer some fundamental questions concerning the existence of a tornado based on the created model and numerical results.

  9. Tornado structure interaction: a numerical simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, T.

    1977-05-20

    The effects of tornadoes on buildings are examined to determine the wind forces on structures. The American National Standards Institute (ANSI) has developed guidelines for building code requirements for the minimum wind loads a building must be designed to withstand. The conservatism or nonconservatism on the ANSI approach is evaluated by simulating tornado-structure interaction numerically with a two-dimensional fluid dynamics computer code and a vortex model. Only external pressures are considered. The computer calculations yield the following percentages of the ANSI design pressures: rigid frame, 50 to 90%; individual wall panels, 75 to 200%; and wall corners, 50 to 75%.

  10. Intensive longleaf pine management for hurricane recovery: fourth-year results

    Science.gov (United States)

    David S. Dyson; Dale G. Brockway

    2015-01-01

    The frequency and intensity of hurricanes affecting the United States has been projected to increase during coming decades, and this rising level of cyclonic storm activity is expected to substantially damage southeastern forests. Although hurricane damage to forests in this region is not new, recent emphasis on longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill...

  11. EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IVAN ON WATER QUALITY IN PENSACOLA BAY, FL USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pensacola Bay was in the strong NE quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004 as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, ...

  12. EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IVAN ON WATER QUALITY IN PENSACOLA BAY, FL USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pensacola Bay was in the strong NE quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004 as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, ...

  13. Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, John C; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; Yu, Xiaoyong; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rinke, Annette; Cui, Xuefeng; Kravitz, Ben; Lenton, Andrew; Watanabe, Shingo; Ji, Duoying

    2015-11-10

    Devastating floods due to Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However, the frequency of the most intense storms is likely to increase with rises in sea surface temperatures. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane Main Development Region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may mitigate hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using eight earth system model simulations of climate under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those temperature increases in the RCP4.5. However, sulfate injection would have to double (to nearly 10 teragrams of SO2 per year) between 2020 and 2070 to balance the RCP4.5, approximately the equivalent of a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 2 y, with consequent implications for stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent generalized extreme value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges and observed temperatures since 1923. The number of storm surge events as big as the one caused by the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this reduction is only marginally statistically significant. Nevertheless, when sea level rise differences in 2070 between the RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored into coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5-y events and about halved for 50-y surges.

  14. Happily Ever After? Pre-and-Post Disaster Determinants of Happiness Among Survivors of Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, Rocío; Arcaya, Mariana; Baum, Christopher F.; Lowe, Sarah R.; Waters, Mary C.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated pre- to post-disaster changes in happiness of 491 women affected by Hurricane Katrina, and identified factors that were associated with the survivors’ happiness after the storm. Participants completed surveys approximately 1 year before and 1 and 4 years after the storm. The surveys collected information on the women’s happiness, social support, household characteristics, and hurricane exposure. We found that happiness significantly decreased from pre-disaster to 1 year post-disaster but there were no significant differences in happiness between the pre-disaster and 4 years post-disaster assessments. An exception were 38 women who continued to have lower levels of happiness 4 years post-disaster than at pre-disaster. These women were more likely to be living on their own after the storm and reported consistently lower levels of perceived social support from the community both before and after the storm than the other women of the sample. Factors associated with the survivor’s happiness after the storm included exposure to hurricane stressors and losing a loved one to the hurricane. These were predictive of lower happiness 1 year post-disaster. Four years after the hurricane only exposure to hurricane stressors was predictive of lower levels of happiness. In contrast, pre-disaster happiness and post-disaster social support were protective against the negative effect of the hurricane on survivors’ happiness. PMID:26078701

  15. 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes poster features high quality satellite images of 15 hurricanes which formed in the Atlantic Basin (includes Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean...

  16. Hurricane Gustav Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Gustav poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Gustav having made landfall along the Louisiana coastline. Poster size is 36"x27"

  17. Hurricane Ike Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Ike poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-15 shows Hurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward Galveston Island, Texas. Poster size is 36"x27".

  18. 2004 Landfalling Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2004 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes poster is a special edition poster which contains two sets of images of Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, created...

  19. Environmental risk perception from visual cues: the psychophysics of tornado risk perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewitt, Barry; Fischhoff, Baruch; Davis, Alexander; Broomell, Stephen B.

    2015-12-01

    Lay judgments of environmental risks are central to both immediate decisions (e.g., taking shelter from a storm) and long-term ones (e.g., building in locations subject to storm surges). Using methods from quantitative psychology, we provide a general approach to studying lay perceptions of environmental risks. As a first application of these methods, we investigate a setting where lay decisions have not taken full advantage of advances in natural science understanding: tornado forecasts in the US and Canada. Because official forecasts are imperfect, members of the public must often evaluate the risks on their own, by checking environmental cues (such as cloud formations) before deciding whether to take protective action. We study lay perceptions of cloud formations, demonstrating an approach that could be applied to other environmental judgments. We use signal detection theory to analyse how well people can distinguish tornadic from non-tornadic clouds, and multidimensional scaling to determine how people make these judgments. We find that participants (N = 400 recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk) have heuristics that generally serve them well, helping participants to separate tornadic from non-tornadic clouds, but which also lead them to misjudge the tornado risk of certain cloud types. The signal detection task revealed confusion regarding shelf clouds, mammatus clouds, and clouds with upper- and mid-level tornadic features, which the multidimensional scaling task suggested was the result of participants focusing on the darkness of the weather scene and the ease of discerning its features. We recommend procedures for training (e.g., for storm spotters) and communications (e.g., tornado warnings) that will reduce systematic misclassifications of tornadicity arising from observers’ reliance on otherwise useful heuristics.

  20. Twitter as a Potential Disaster Risk Reduction Tool. Part III: Evaluating Variables that Promoted Regional Twitter Use for At-risk Populations During the 2013 Hattiesburg F4 Tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Burkle, Frederick M; Subbarao, Italo

    2015-06-29

    Study goals attempt to identify the variables most commonly associated with successful tweeted messages and determine which variables have the most influence in promoting exponential dissemination of information (viral spreading of the message) and trending (becoming popular) in the given disaster affected region. Part II describes the detailed extraction and triangulation filtration methodological approach to acquiring twitter data for the 2013 Hattiesburg Tornado. The data was then divided into two 48 hour windows before and after the tornado impact with a 2 hour pre-tornado buffer to capture tweets just prior to impact. Criteria-based analysis was completed for Tweets and users. The top 100 pre-Tornado and post-Tornado retweeted users were compared to establish the variability among the top retweeted users during the 4 day span.  Pre-Tornado variables that were correlated to higher retweeted rates include total user tweets (0.324), and total times message retweeted (0.530).  Post-Tornado variables that were correlated to higher retweeted rates include total hashtags in a retweet (0.538) and hashtags #Tornado (0.378) and #Hattiesburg (0.254). Overall hashtags usage significantly increased during the storm. Pre-storm there were 5,763 tweets with a hashtag and post-storm there was 13,598 using hashtags. Twitter's unique features allow it to be considered a unique social media tool applicable for emergency managers and public health officials for rapid and accurate two way communication.  Additionally, understanding how variables can be properly manipulated plays a key role in understanding how to use this social media platform for effective, accurate, and rapid mass information communication.

  1. Learning Storm

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Ankit

    2014-01-01

    If you are a Java developer who wants to enter into the world of real-time stream processing applications using Apache Storm, then this book is for you. No previous experience in Storm is required as this book starts from the basics. After finishing this book, you will be able to develop not-so-complex Storm applications.

  2. Hurricane Sandy and earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    MAVASHEV BORIS; MAVASHEV IGOR

    2013-01-01

    Submit for consideration the connection between formation of a hurricane Sandy and earthquakes. As a rule, weather anomalies precede and accompany earthquakes. The hurricane Sandy emerged 2 days prior to strong earthquakes that occurred in the area. And the trajectory of the hurricane Sandy matched the epicenter of the earthquakes. Possibility of early prediction of natural disasters will minimize the moral and material damage.

  3. Solar Tornadoes Triggered by Interaction between Filaments and EUV Jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huadong; Zhang, Jun; Ma, Suli; Yan, Xiaoli; Xue, Jianchao

    2017-05-01

    We investigate the formations and evolutions of two successive solar tornadoes in/near AR 12297 during 2015 March 19-20. Recurrent EUV jets close to two filaments were detected along a large-scale coronal loop prior to the appearances of the tornadoes. Under the disturbances from the activities, the filaments continually ascended and finally interacted with the loops tracked by the jets. Subsequently, the structures of the filaments and the loop were merged together, probably via magnetic reconnections, and formed tornado-like structures with a long spiral arm. Our observations suggest that solar tornadoes can be triggered by the interaction between filaments and nearby coronal jets, which has rarely been reported before. At the earlier development phase of the first tornado, about 30 small-scale sub-jets appeared in the tornado’s arm, accompanied by local EUV brightenings. They have an ejection direction approximately vertical to the axis of the arm and a typical maximum speed of ˜280 km s-1. During the ruinations of the two tornadoes, fast plasma outflows from the strong EUV brightenings inside tornadoes are observed, in company with the untangling or unwinding of the highly twisted tornado structures. These observational features indicate that self reconnections probably occurred between the tangled magnetic fields of the tornadoes and resulted in the rapid disintegrations and disappearances of the tornadoes. According to the reconnection theory, we also derive the field strength of the tornado core to be ˜8 G.

  4. Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Harold E; Carbin, Gregory W; Marsh, Patrick T

    2014-10-17

    Whether or not climate change has had an impact on the occurrence of tornadoes in the United States has become a question of high public and scientific interest, but changes in how tornadoes are reported have made it difficult to answer it convincingly. We show that, excluding the weakest tornadoes, the mean annual number of tornadoes has remained relatively constant, but their variability of occurrence has increased since the 1970s. This is due to a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes combined with an increase in days with many tornadoes, leading to greater variability on annual and monthly time scales and changes in the timing of the start of the tornado season. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  5. Tornado Emergency Readiness Planning for Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisconsin State Dept. of Public Instruction, Madison.

    A place of safe refuge in the event of violent natural forces or a tornado should be included in the design of all new school buildings. Existing a school buildings should be analyzed by the architect, contractor, or engineer to determine if a safe place exists or if one can be readily adapted. Most criteria for fallout shelters are the same for…

  6. School interventions after the Joplin tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanter, Robert K; Abramson, David

    2014-04-01

    To qualitatively describe interventions by schools to meet children's needs after the May 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Qualitative exploratory study conducted six months after the tornado. Key informant interviews with school staff (teachers, psychologists, guidance counselor, nurse, principal), public health official, and physicians. After the tornado, school staff immediately worked to contact every enrolled child to provide assistance and coordinate recovery services. Despite severe damage to half of the city's schools, the decision was made to reopen schools at the earliest possible time to provide a safe, reassuring environment and additional services. An expanded summer school session emphasized child safety and emotional wellbeing. The 2011-2012 school year began on time, less than three months after the disaster, using temporary facilities. Displaced children were bused to their usual schools regardless of their new temporary residence locations. In just-in-time training sessions, teachers developed strategies to support students and staff experiencing anxiety or depression. Certified counselors conducted school-based, small-group counseling for students. Selective referrals were made to community mental health providers for children with greatest needs. Evidence from Joplin adds to a small body of empirical experience demonstrating the important contribution of schools to postdisaster community recovery. Despite timely and proactive services, many families and children struggled after the tornado. Improvements in the effectiveness of postdisaster interventions at schools will follow from future scientific evidence on optimal approaches.

  7. Utilizing Tornado Data for Classroom Exercises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Fred

    Exercises were developed using tornado statistics to provide students with a better understanding of the spatial and temporal characteristics of these phenomena in the United States. Four categories of exercises were considered beginning with the simplest and progressing to the more complex. The first set of exercises required students to…

  8. The effects of hurricanes on birds, with special reference to Caribbean islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, J.W.; Wunderle, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    Cyclonic storms, variously called typhoons, cyclones, or hurricanes (henceforth, hurricanes), are common in many parts of the world, where their frequent occurrence can have both direct and indirect effects on bird populations. Direct effects of hurricanes include mortality from exposure to hurricane winds, rains, and storm surges, and geographic displacement of individuals by storm winds. Indirect effects become apparent in the storm's aftermath and include loss of food supplies or foraging substrates; loss of nests and nest or roost sites; increased vulnerability to predation; microclimate changes; and increased conflict with humans. The short-term response of bird populations to hurricane damage, before changes in plant succession, includes shifts in diet, foraging sites or habitats, and reproductive changes. Bird populations may show long-term responses to changes in plant succession as second-growth vegetation increases in storm-damaged old-growth forests. The greatest stress of a hurricane to most upland terrestrial bird populations occurs after its passage rather than during its impact. The most important effect of a hurricane is the destruction of vegetation, which secondarily affects wildlife in the storm's aftermath. The most vulnerable terrestrial wildlife populations have a diet of nectar, fruit, or seeds; nest, roost, or forage on large old trees; require a closed forest canopy; have special microclimate requirements and/or live in a habitat in which vegetation has a slow recovery rate. Small populations with these traits are at greatest risk to hurricane-induced extinction, particularly if they exist in small isolated habitat fragments. Recovery of avian populations from hurricane effects is partially dependent on the extent and degree of vegetation damage as well as its rate of recovery. Also, the reproductive rate of the remnant local population and recruitment from undisturbed habitat patches influence the rate at which wildlife populations recover

  9. Earthquake Airbags, New Devices to Save Lives in Earthquakes, Tornados and Similar Disasters Resulting from Building Crashes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Hashem Shahidi Bonjar

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake Airbag (EA is a new terminology being introduced for the earthquake literature of the world. According to literature surveys, this terminology has not been used previously. Based on many scientific reports, fatality rates are lower in vehicles equipped with airbags than unequipped ones. Accordingly, it was postulated that similar structures can be adopted in buildings to protect people and lower human casualties in building crashes. The data collected from simulation of collision-impact on fragile objects revealed that the safety advantage of airbags is that they can reduce impact injuries upon indoor people from falling debris in earthquakes and building crashes resulting from tornados, hurricanes or similar disasters.

  10. Brief communication "Hurricane Irene: a wake-up call for New York City?"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. J. H. Aerts

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The weakening of Irene from a Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm resulted in less damage in New York City (NYC than initially was anticipated. It is widely recognized that the storm surge and associated flooding could have been much more severe. In a recent study, we showed that a direct hit to the city from a hurricane may expose an enormous number of people to flooding. A major hurricane has the potential to cause large-scale damage in NYC. The city's resilience to flooding can be increased by improving and integrating flood insurance, flood zoning, and building code policies.

  11. Deaths associated with Hurricane Sandy - October-November 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-24

    On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the northeastern U.S. coastline. Sandy's tropical storm winds stretched over 900 miles (1,440 km), causing storm surges and destruction over a larger area than that affected by hurricanes with more intensity but narrower paths. Based on storm surge predictions, mandatory evacuations were ordered on October 28, including for New York City's Evacuation Zone A, the coastal zone at risk for flooding from any hurricane. By October 31, the region had 6-12 inches (15-30 cm) of precipitation, 7-8 million customers without power, approximately 20,000 persons in shelters, and news reports of numerous fatalities (Robert Neurath, CDC, personal communication, 2013). To characterize deaths related to Sandy, CDC analyzed data on 117 hurricane-related deaths captured by American Red Cross (Red Cross) mortality tracking during October 28-November 30, 2012. This report describes the results of that analysis, which found drowning was the most common cause of death related to Sandy, and 45% of drowning deaths occurred in flooded homes in Evacuation Zone A. Drowning is a leading cause of hurricane death but is preventable with advance warning systems and evacuation plans. Emergency plans should ensure that persons receive and comprehend evacuation messages and have the necessary resources to comply with them.

  12. EDs in the Midwest and South activate disaster plans as deadly tornadoes sweep through the region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Hospitals in the Midwest and South activated their disaster plans in early March to deal with a phalanx of powerful tornadoes that leveled several small towns and killed at least two dozen people. Some hospitals had to activate plans for both internal and external disasters as their own facilities were threatened. One small critical-access hospital in West Liberty, KY, sustained significant damage and had to evacuate its patients to another facility. All the hospitals credit their disaster plans and practice drills with helping them to manage the crisis as efficiently as possible. Morgan County ARH Hospital in West Liberty, KY, went for several days without an operational lab or radiology department, but staff kept the ED open for absolute emergencies. Margaret Mary Community Hospital (MMCH) in Batesville, IN, received six tornado victims, but it was prepared for many more. Administrators credit advanced warning of the storms with helping them to prepare effectively, as well as to coordinate their response with other hospitals in the area. As a level 1 trauma center, the University of Louisville Hospital in Louisville, KY, received all the most seriously injured patients in the region, even while the facility itself was under a tornado warning. Staff had to route families away from the glassed-in waiting room to the basement until the tornado warning had passed. At one point during the crisis, there were 90 patients in the hospital's ED even though the department is only equipped with 29 beds. Administrators at Huntsville Hospital in Huntsville, AL, encouraged colleagues to take advantage of smaller-scale emergencies to activate parts of their disaster plans, and to focus disaster preparation drills on their hospital's top hazard vulnerabilities.

  13. Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; Yu, Xiaoyong; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rinke, Annette; Cui, Xuefeng; Kravitz, Ben; Lenton, Andrew; Watanabe, Shingo; Ji, Duoying

    2015-10-26

    Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase by a factor of 2-7 for each degree of increase in mean global temperature. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 8 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those in RCP4.5, but sulphate injection would have to double between 2020 and 2070 to balance RCP 4.5 to nearly 10 Tg SO2 yr-1, with consequent implications for damage to stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent Generalized Extreme Value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges from 1923 and observed temperatures. The numbers of storm surge events as big as the one that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this is only marginally statistically significant. However, when sea level rise differences at 2070 between RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored in to coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5 year events and perhaps halved for 50 year surges.

  14. Hurricane Katrina sediment slowed elevation loss in subsiding brackish marshes of the Mississippi River delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, K.L.; Cherry, J.A.

    2009-01-01

    Although hurricanes can damage or destroy coastal wetlands, they may play a beneficial role in reinvigorating marshes by delivering sediments that raise soil elevations and stimulate organic matter production. Hurricane Katrina altered elevation dynamics of two subsiding brackish marshes in the Mississippi River deltaic plain by adding 3 to 8 cm of sediment to the soil surface in August 2005. Soil elevations at both sites subsequently declined due to continued subsidence, but net elevation gain was still positive at both Pearl River (+1.7 cm) and Big Branch (+0.7 cm) marshes two years after the hurricane. At Big Branch where storm sediments had higher organic matter and water contents, post-storm elevation loss was more rapid due to initial compaction of the storm layer in combination with root-zone collapse. In contrast, elevation loss was slower at Pearl River where the storm deposit (high sand content) did not compact and the root zone did not collapse. Vegetation at both sites fully recovered within one year, and accumulation of root matter at Big Branch increased 10-fold from 2005 to 2006, suggesting that the hurricane stimulated belowground productivity. Results of this study imply that hurricane sediment may benefit subsiding marshes by slowing elevation loss. However, long-term effects of hurricane sediment on elevation dynamics will depend not only on the amount of sediment deposited, but on sediment texture and resistance to compaction as well as on changes in organic matter accumulation in the years following the hurricane.

  15. Hurricane Public Health Research Center at Louisiana State University a Case of Academia Being Prepared

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Heerden, I. L.

    2006-12-01

    and chemicals in these standing flood waters would set the stage for massive disease outbreaks and prolonged chemical exposure. Before Katrina, population evacuation behavior had been determined, computer models could be used to predict storm surge flooding, government databases and GIS technology allowed documentation of at-risk areas, probable chemical and sewerage release sites had been mapped, tropical disease experts and social scientists had determined possible public health impacts; that injured and displaced animal pets and wild animals would be a major problem had been identified; and, an interactive GIS database was available for utilization in all aspects of the assessment and remediation post landfall. The value of this project has been many-fold. First, before Katrina it had a positive impact on emergency preparedness in the state of Louisiana. Second, during the hurricane Katrina catastrophe the project offered a major service to the state as the various data sets and research outputs were extensively used throughout the flooding thus reducing deaths, disease, pain, and suffering. Third, the model of academia aiding in disaster science and management is being exported nationally and internationally. Finally, our research results are applicable to other complex disasters such as earthquakes, tornadoes, chemical spills or terrorism.

  16. Contribution of recent hurricanes to wetland sedimentation in coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kam-biu; Bianchette, Thomas; Zou, Lei; Qiang, Yi; Lam, Nina

    2017-04-01

    Hurricanes are important agents of sediment deposition in the wetlands of coastal Louisiana. Since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005, coastal Louisiana has been impacted by Hurricanes Gustav (2008), Ike (2008), and Isaac (2012). By employing the principles and methods of paleotempestology we have identified the storm deposits attributed to the three most recent hurricanes in several coastal lakes and swamps in Louisiana. However, the spatial distribution and volume of these storm depositions cannot be easily inferred from stratigraphic data derived from a few locations. Here we report on results from a GIS study to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of storm deposition based on data extracted from the voluminous CRMS (Coastal Reference Monitoring System) database, which contains vertical accretion rate measurements obtained from 390 wetland sites over various time intervals during the past decade. Wetland accretion rates averaged about 2.89 cm/yr from stations sampled before Hurricane Isaac, 4.04 cm/yr during the 7-month period encompassing Isaac, and 2.38 cm/yr from sites established and sampled after Isaac. Generally, the wetland accretion rates attributable to the Isaac effects were 40% and 70% greater than before and after the event, respectively. Accretion rates associated with Isaac were highest at wetland sites along the Mississippi River and its tributaries instead of along the path of the hurricane, suggesting that freshwater flooding from fluvial channels, enhanced by the storm surge from the sea, is the main mechanism responsible for increased accretion in the wetlands. Our GIS work has recently been expanded to include other recent hurricanes. Preliminary results indicate that, for non-storm periods, the average wetland accretion rates between Katrina/Rita and Gustav/Ike was 2.58 cm/yr; that between Gustav/Ike and Isaac was 1.95 cm/yr; and that after Isaac was 2.37 cm/yr. In contrast, the accretion rates attributable to the effects of Gustav

  17. Gone with the Wind? Integrity and Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Frances; Katz, Brit

    2011-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina slammed into 80 miles of Mississippi shoreline on August 29, 2005. It was the nation's worst natural disaster, a perfect storm. One hundred sixty miles-per-hour winds sent 55-foot-tall waves and a 30-foot wall of water across the shore and miles inland. It displaced 400,000 residents along the coast of the Mississippi, and…

  18. Genesis and maintenance of "Mediterranean hurricanes"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Emanuel

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Cyclonic storms that closely resemble tropical cyclones in satellite images occasionally form over the Mediterranean Sea. Synoptic and mesoscale analyses of such storms show small, warm-core structure and surface winds sometimes exceeding 25ms-1 over small areas. These analyses, together with numerical simulations, reveal that in their mature stages, such storms intensify and are maintained by a feedback between surface enthalpy fluxes and wind, and as such are isomorphic with tropical cyclones. In this paper, I demonstrate that a cold, upper low over the Mediterranean can produce strong cyclogenesis in an axisymmetric model, thereby showing that baroclinic instability is not necessary during the mature stages of Mediterranean hurricanes.

  19. Study of the tornado event in Greece on March 25, 2009: Synoptic analysis and numerical modeling using modified topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsangouras, I. T.; Nastos, P. T.; Pytharoulis, I.

    2016-03-01

    Recent research revealed that western Greece and NW Peloponnese are regions that favor prefrontal tornadic incidence. On March 25, 2009 a tornado developed approximately at 10:30 UTC near Varda village (NW Peloponnese). Tornado intensity was T4-T5 (TORRO scale) and consequently caused an economic impact of 350,000 € over the local society. The goals of this study are: (i) to analyze synoptic and remote sensing features regarding the tornado event over NW Peloponnese and (ii) to investigate the role of topography in tornadogenesis triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over that area. Synoptic analysis was based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data sets. The analysis of daily anomaly of synoptic conditions with respect to 30 years' climatology (1981-2010), was based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis data sets. In addition, numerous remote sensing data sets were derived by the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) weather station network in order to better interpret the examined tornado event. Finally, numerical modeling was performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized by ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso-scale. The two numerical experiments were performed on the basis of: (a) the presence and (b) the absence of topography (landscape), so as to determine whether the occurrence of a tornado - identified by diagnostic instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The energy helicity index (EHI), the bulk Richardson number (BRN) shear, the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH), and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcels with maximum θe) were considered as principal diagnostic instability variables and

  20. Assessing a 1500-year record of Atlantic hurricane activity from South Andros Island, the Bahamas, using modeled hurricane climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, E. J.; Donnelly, J. P.; Emanuel, K.; Wiman, C.; van Hengstum, P. J.; Sullivan, R.; Winkler, T. S.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical cyclones can cause substantial loss of life and economic resources in coastal areas. In the current changing climate, it is of critical importance for society to understand any links between hurricane activity and climactic conditions. Unfortunately, historical tropical cyclone records are too short and incomplete to constrain how climate controls cyclone activity or to accurately quantify the risk of such storms to local human populations. Hurricane-induced deposits preserved in sediment cores can offer records of past hurricane activity stretching over thousands of years. Here we present a 1500 year annually resolved record of the frequency of intense hurricane events in a blue hole (AM4) on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This carbonate island in the western North Atlantic Ocean is positioned along the trackway of many storms originating in the Caribbean and Atlantic basins. The record is corroborated by cores collected from three other blue holes near AM4. Over the past 1500 years, there have been periods of elevated hurricane activity from 750 to 950 CE, 1150 to 1300 CE and 1550 to 1850 CE. The statistical significance of this sedimentary record is assessed utilizing a set of synthetic storms generated from a previously published statistical deterministic hurricane model. The model simulates climatological conditions from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, and the CMIP5 MPI model for the 20th century calibration (1850-2005 CE), and the millennial simulation (850-1849 CE). The average reoccurrence rates of hurricanes passing within 100 km of AM4 under each simulation are 1.06, 0.62, and 0.61 storms per year respectively. Using each climatology, thousands of hurricane induced deposits for the site are generated based on a random draw of these storms, a wind speed threshold for deposit, and a temporal resolution given the sedimentation rate of approximately 1 cm/yr at the site. Overall, the results of this study offer information on changes

  1. Latest climate changes in Romania :tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pop, Elena

    2014-05-01

    Latest climate changes in Romania :tornadoes As climate change has been considered a research priority in the European Strategy for enduring development , I have done a detailed research with my students of the new climate change that has been going on in Romania for the past decade. More precisely I have studied together with my students the phenomenon of tornadoes that have seriously affected on some occasions some our our country's locations, such as Facaeni, in the county of Ialomita, in August 2002. A quite unusual phenomenon occurred on that location situated at 44.56 degrees northern latitude and at 27.89 degrees eastern longitude, that caused severe damage to the local environment and three persons lost their lives in the process, as well as other thirty people suffering from bad injuries. The magnitude of that strong phenomenon rose on the Fujita scale at level F3 which implied wing gusts between 252-300 km/ hour . A main cause of occurrence of such a severe weather was the difference in temperature of two huge air masses, one of Polar origin, and other coming from tropical latitudes . Their crossroads was on that precise territory of Romania. The duration of the worst part of the tornado path lasted only for two minutes, but the consequences of its passage were colossal : total destruction of 33 households, and other 395 were partially damaged, 1,000 people afflicted by the devastation and 100 acres of acacia tree forest ripped off the ground. The first ever recorded tornado phenomenon in Romania was around 1894-1896, considered at that time " a freak of nature" was seen as a cloud formation abnormality , an uncontrolled force of nature that had a huge impact , and at the same time, it vanished into "thin air " fast. The most affected areas in Romania by tornadoes are the south-eastern planes where the cloud formations can create fast columns of air rotating up to 500 km/hour. The local people compared the cloud funnels created on the planes to "serpents

  2. Torsional wave propagation in solar tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasheghani Farahani, S.; Ghanbari, E.; Ghaffari, G.; Safari, H.

    2017-03-01

    Aims: We investigate the propagation of torsional waves in coronal structures together with their collimation effects in the context of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) theory. The interplay of the equilibrium twist and rotation of the structure, e.g. jet or tornado, together with the density contrast of its internal and external media is studied to shed light on the nature of torsional waves. Methods: We consider a rotating magnetic cylinder embedded in a plasma with a straight magnetic field. This resembles a solar tornado. In order to express the dispersion relations and phase speeds of the axisymmetric magnetohydrodynamic waves, the second-order thin flux tube approximation is implemented for the internal medium and the ideal MHD equations are implemented for the external medium. Results: The explicit expressions for the phase speed of the torsional wave show the modification of the torsional wave speed due to the equilibrium twist, rotation, and density contrast of the tornado. The speeds could be either sub-Alfvénic or ultra-Alfvénic depending on whether the equilibrium twist or rotation is dominant. The equilibrium twist increases the phase speed while the equilibrium rotation decreases it. The good agreement between the explicit versions for the phase speed and that obtained numerically proves adequate for the robustness of the model and method. The density ratio of the internal and external media also play a significant role in the speed and dispersion. Conclusions: The dispersion of the torsional wave is an indication of the compressibility of the oscillations. When the cylinder is rotating or twisted, in contrast to when it only possesses a straight magnetic field, the torsional wave is a collective mode. In this case its phase speed is determined by the Alfvén waves inside and outside the tornado.

  3. Landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in Tegucigalpa, Honduras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harp, Edwin L.; Castaneda, Mario; Held, Matthew D.

    2002-01-01

    The arrival of Hurricane Mitch in Honduras in the latter part of the 1998 hurricane season produced effects that were unprecedented in their widespread nature throughout Central America. After winds from the storm had blown down more than 70 percent of the conifer forest on the Bay Island of Guanaja, the hurricane turned inland and stalled over the mainland of Honduras for 3 days. The resulting deluge of rainfall produced devastating flooding and landslides that resulted in more than 9,000 fatalities and 3 million people displaced. Although the eye of Hurricane Mitch passed through the northern part of Honduras, the greatest rainfall totals and intensities occurred in the southern part of the country near Choluteca. For the three days October 29-31, 1998, total rainfall at Choluteca exceeded 900 mm. Not surprisingly, it was in this area that the highest landslide concentrations occurred.

  4. Level 1 Tornado PRA for the High Flux Beam Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bozoki, G.E.; Conrad, C.S.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes a risk analysis primarily directed at providing an estimate for the frequency of tornado induced damage to the core of the High Flux Beam Reactor (HFBR), and thus it constitutes a Level 1 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) covering tornado induced accident sequences. The basic methodology of the risk analysis was to develop a ``tornado specific`` plant logic model that integrates the internal random hardware failures with failures caused externally by the tornado strike and includes operator errors worsened by the tornado modified environment. The tornado hazard frequency, as well as earlier prepared structural and equipment fragility data, were used as input data to the model. To keep modeling/calculational complexity as simple as reasonable a ``bounding`` type, slightly conservative, approach was applied. By a thorough screening process a single dominant initiating event was selected as a representative initiator, defined as: ``Tornado Induced Loss of Offsite Power.`` The frequency of this initiator was determined to be 6.37E-5/year. The safety response of the HFBR facility resulted in a total Conditional Core Damage Probability of .621. Thus, the point estimate of the HFBR`s Tornado Induced Core Damage Frequency (CDF) was found to be: (CDF){sub Tornado} = 3.96E-5/year. This value represents only 7.8% of the internal CDF and thus is considered to be a small contribution to the overall facility risk expressed in terms of total Core Damage Frequency. In addition to providing the estimate of (CDF){sub Tornado}, the report documents, the relative importance of various tornado induced system, component, and operator failures that contribute most to (CDF){sub Tornado}.

  5. Shelf sediment transport during hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kehui; Mickey, Rangley C.; Chen, Qin; Harris, Courtney K.; Hetland, Robert D.; Hu, Kelin; Wang, Jiaze

    2016-05-01

    Hurricanes can greatly modify the sedimentary record, but our coastal scientific community has rather limited capability to predict hurricane-induced sediment deposition. A three-dimensional sediment transport model was developed in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to study seabed erosion and deposition on the Louisiana shelf in response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the year 2005. Sensitivity tests were performed on both erosional and depositional processes for a wide range of erosional rates and settling velocities, and uncertainty analysis was done on critical shear stresses using the polynomial chaos approximation method. A total of 22 model runs were performed in sensitivity and uncertainty tests. Estimated maximum erosional depths were sensitive to the inputs, but horizontal erosional patterns seemed to be controlled mainly by hurricane tracks, wave-current combined shear stresses, seabed grain sizes, and shelf bathymetry. During the passage of two hurricanes, local resuspension and deposition dominated the sediment transport mechanisms. Hurricane Katrina followed a shelf-perpendicular track before making landfall and its energy dissipated rapidly within about 48 h along the eastern Louisiana coast. In contrast, Hurricane Rita followed a more shelf-oblique track and disturbed the seabed extensively during its 84-h passage from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Louisiana-Texas border. Conditions to either side of Hurricane Rita's storm track differed substantially, with the region to the east having stronger winds, taller waves and thus deeper erosions. This study indicated that major hurricanes can disturb the shelf at centimeter to meter levels. Each of these two hurricanes suspended seabed sediment mass that far exceeded the annual sediment inputs from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers, but the net transport from shelves to estuaries is yet to be determined. Future studies should focus on the modeling of sediment exchange between

  6. Hurricanes in an Aquaplanet World: Implications of the Impacts of External Forcing and Model Horizontal Resolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Fuyu; Collins, William D.; Wehner, Michael F.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-06-02

    High-resolution climate models have been shown to improve the statistics of tropical storms and hurricanes compared to low-resolution models. The impact of increasing horizontal resolution in the tropical storm simulation is investigated exclusively using a series of Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) runs with idealized aquaplanet steady-state boundary conditions and a fixed operational storm-tracking algorithm. The results show that increasing horizontal resolution helps to detect more hurricanes, simulate stronger extreme rainfall, and emulate better storm structures in the models. However, increasing model resolution does not necessarily produce stronger hurricanes in terms of maximum wind speed, minimum sea level pressure, and mean precipitation, as the increased number of storms simulated by high-resolution models is mainly associated with weaker storms. The spatial scale at which the analyses are conducted appears to have more important control on these meteorological statistics compared to horizontal resolution of the model grid. When the simulations are analyzed on common low-resolution grids, the statistics of the hurricanes, particularly the hurricane counts, show reduced sensitivity to the horizontal grid resolution and signs of scale invariant.

  7. Kinetic Energy of Tornadoes in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricker, Tyler; Elsner, James B

    2015-01-01

    Tornadoes can cause catastrophic destruction. Here total kinetic energy (TKE) as a metric of destruction is computed from the fraction of the tornado path experiencing various damage levels and a characteristic wind speed for each level. The fraction of the path is obtained from a model developed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that combines theory with empirical data. TKE is validated as a useful metric by comparing it to other indexes and loss indicators. Half of all tornadoes have TKE exceeding 62.1 GJ and a quarter have TKE exceeding 383.2 GJ. One percent of the tornadoes have TKE exceeding 31.9 TJ. April has more energy than May with fewer tornadoes; March has more energy than June with half as many tornadoes. September has the least energy but November and December have the fewest tornadoes. Alabama ranks number one in terms of tornado energy with 2.48 PJ over the period 2007-2013. TKE can be used to help better understand the changing nature of tornado activity.

  8. Dynamics and thermodynamics of a tornado: Rotation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-Amots, N.

    2016-09-01

    This paper investigates the relevant processes in the tornado including the dynamics of rotation and thermodynamics as well as condensation. The main novelty of this paper is the explanation of the phenomena occurring in the central downflow. The reduced pressure in the tornado's funnel sucks air and water vapor from the cloud above the tornado. The latent heat of condensation is released in the funnel. The centrifugal force drives the generated water drops out of the funnel. The latent heat of condensation released is also transferred out of the funnel, and supplies the helically ascending air flow surrounding the tornado with additional buoyancy energy. This process gives the tornado increased strength compared to the dust devil type of flow, thus explaining why tornadoes occur always under a cloud, and why the tornado pipe can reach a height of a kilometer and more. To sustain a tornado, the temperature of water vapor at the cloud's base should be higher than the surroundings by a certain minimal value. Remote infrared temperature measurements of clouds' bases may provide indications of the probability that a cloud can spawn a tornado, which may increase the lead time.

  9. Divine Wind - The History and Science of Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanuel, Kerry

    2005-09-01

    Imagine standing at the center of a Roman coliseum that is 20 miles across, with walls that soar 10 miles into the sky, towering walls with cascades of ice crystals falling along its brilliantly white surface. That's what it's like to stand in the eye of a hurricane. In Divine Wind , Kerry Emanuel, one of the world's leading authorities on hurricanes, gives us an engaging account of these awe-inspiring meteorological events, revealing how hurricanes and typhoons have literally altered human history, thwarting military incursions and changing the course of explorations. Offering an account of the physics of the tropical atmosphere, the author explains how such benign climates give rise to the most powerful storms in the world and tells what modern science has learned about them. Interwoven with this scientific account are descriptions of some of the most important hurricanes in history and relevant works of art and literature. For instance, he describes the 17th-century hurricane that likely inspired Shakespeare's The Tempest and that led to the British colonization of Bermuda. We also read about the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, by far the worst natural calamity in U.S. history, with a death toll between 8,000 and 12,000 that exceeded the San Francisco earthquake, the Johnstown Flood, and the Okeechobee Hurricane combined. Boasting more than one hundred color illustrations, from ultra-modern Doppler imagery to classic paintings by Winslow Homer, Divine Wind captures the profound effects that hurricanes have had on humanity. Its fascinating blend of history, science, and art will appeal to weather junkies, science buffs, and everyone who read Isaac's Storm .

  10. Hurricane Effects on Mangrove Canopies Observed from MODIS and SPOT Imagery

    CERN Document Server

    Parenti, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The effects of four hurricanes on protected mangroves in southwest Florida (Katrina and Wilma) and the Yucatan Peninsula (Emily and Dean) were assessed using paired sets of 20m multispectral SPOT and 16-day 500m MODIS images. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were used to assess possible damage to and recovery of mangrove canopies associated with each storm event. The results revealed decreases in the NDVI and EVI of mangrove canopies consistent with storm effects, although the effects in South Florida and Sian Ka'an were highly variable. Hurricane Wilma produced a large decrease in NDVI and EVI although values recovered within a year, suggesting resilience to this storm. Rainfall associated with Hurricane Emily apparently increased mangrove photosynthetic activity owing to the location of landfall outside the study area, the small size of the wind field and the apparent lack of storm surge. MODIS NDVI time series revealed pronounced seasonality in mangrove ...

  11. A Coordinated USGS Science Response to Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, S.; Buxton, H. T.; Andersen, M.; Dean, T.; Focazio, M. J.; Haines, J.; Hainly, R. A.

    2013-12-01

    In late October 2012, Hurricane Sandy came ashore during a spring high tide on the New Jersey coastline, delivering hurricane-force winds, storm tides exceeding 19 feet, driving rain, and plummeting temperatures. Hurricane Sandy resulted in 72 direct fatalities in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, and widespread and substantial physical, environmental, ecological, social, and economic impacts estimated at near $50 billion. Before the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, the USGS provided forecasts of potential coastal change; collected oblique aerial photography of pre-storm coastal morphology; deployed storm-surge sensors, rapid-deployment streamgages, wave sensors, and barometric pressure sensors; conducted Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) aerial topographic surveys of coastal areas; and issued a landslide alert for landslide prone areas. During the storm, Tidal Telemetry Networks provided real-time water-level information along the coast. Long-term networks and rapid-deployment real-time streamgages and water-quality monitors tracked river levels and changes in water quality. Immediately after the storm, the USGS serviced real-time instrumentation, retrieved data from over 140 storm-surge sensors, and collected other essential environmental data, including more than 830 high-water marks mapping the extent and elevation of the storm surge. Post-storm lidar surveys documented storm impacts to coastal barriers informing response and recovery and providing a new baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The USGS Hazard Data Distribution System served storm-related information from many agencies on the Internet on a daily basis. Immediately following Hurricane Sandy the USGS developed a science plan, 'Meeting the Science Needs of the Nation in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy-A U.S. Geological Survey Science Plan for Support of Restoration and Recovery'. The plan will ensure continuing coordination of internal USGS activities as well as

  12. Effect of Coupling Wave and Flow Dynamics on Hurricane Surge and Inundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    impacted hurricanes - both by the wind fields as well as by the accompanying surge. Forecasting the extent of the inundation is critical for local...estimate local surge hazards; and in the other, ensemble model runs are used to determine surge values from a set of parameterized storms [Irish et...with the storm surge to create the storm tide. The extent of coastal inundation - flooding of inland surface that is not normally submerged, is

  13. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, James B; Widen, Holly M

    2015-01-01

    Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA). A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  14. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H Jagger

    Full Text Available Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA. A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  15. Hurricane Katrina deaths, Louisiana, 2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunkard, Joan; Namulanda, Gonza; Ratard, Raoult

    2008-12-01

    Hurricane Katrina struck the US Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005, causing unprecedented damage to numerous communities in Louisiana and Mississippi. Our objectives were to verify, document, and characterize Katrina-related mortality in Louisiana and help identify strategies to reduce mortality in future disasters. We assessed Hurricane Katrina mortality data sources received in 2007, including Louisiana and out-of-state death certificates for deaths occurring from August 27 to October 31, 2005, and the Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Team's confirmed victims' database. We calculated age-, race-, and sex-specific mortality rates for Orleans, St Bernard, and Jefferson Parishes, where 95% of Katrina victims resided and conducted stratified analyses by parish of residence to compare differences between observed proportions of victim demographic characteristics and expected values based on 2000 US Census data, using Pearson chi square and Fisher exact tests. We identified 971 Katrina-related deaths in Louisiana and 15 deaths among Katrina evacuees in other states. Drowning (40%), injury and trauma (25%), and heart conditions (11%) were the major causes of death among Louisiana victims. Forty-nine percent of victims were people 75 years old and older. Fifty-three percent of victims were men; 51% were black; and 42% were white. In Orleans Parish, the mortality rate among blacks was 1.7 to 4 times higher than that among whites for all people 18 years old and older. People 75 years old and older were significantly more likely to be storm victims (P Hurricane Katrina was the deadliest hurricane to strike the US Gulf Coast since 1928. Drowning was the major cause of death and people 75 years old and older were the most affected population cohort. Future disaster preparedness efforts must focus on evacuating and caring for vulnerable populations, including those in hospitals, long-term care facilities, and personal residences. Improving mortality reporting timeliness will

  16. Recovering from Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Nadine

    2006-01-01

    The Gulf Coast region suffered an unusually severe hurricane season in 2005: Hurricane Katrina (August 28-29, 2005) devastated much of southern Mississippi and Louisiana. Approximately 2,700 licensed early care and education facilities in those states and in Alabama were affected by Katrina, in addition to an unknown number of family child care…

  17. Asymmetric oceanic response to a hurricane: Deep water observations during Hurricane Isaac

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Laura J.; DiMarco, Steven F.; Wang, Zhankun; Kuehl, Joseph J.; Brooks, David A.

    2016-10-01

    The eye of Hurricane Isaac passed through the center of an array of six deep water water-column current meter moorings deployed in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The trajectory of the hurricane provided for a unique opportunity to quantify differences in the full water-column oceanic response to a hurricane to the left and right of the hurricane trajectory. Prior to the storm passage, relative vorticity on the right side of the hurricane was strongly negative, while on the left, relative vorticity was positive. This resulted in an asymmetry in the near-inertial frequencies oceanic response at depth and horizontally. A shift in the response to a slightly larger inertial frequencies ˜1.11f was observed and verified by theory. Additionally, the storm passage coincided with an asymmetric change in relative vorticity in the upper 1000 m, which persisted for ˜15 inertial periods. Vertical propagation of inertial energy was estimated at 29 m/d, while horizontal propagation at this frequency was approximately 5.7 km/d. Wavelet analysis showed two distinct subinertial responses, one with a period of 2-5 days and another with a period of 5-12 days. Analysis of the subinertial bands reveals that the spatial and temporal scales are shorter and less persistent than the near-inertial variance. As the array is geographically located near the site of the Deep Water Horizon oil spill, the spatial and temporal scales of response have significant implications for the fate, transport, and distribution of hydrocarbons following a deep water spill event.

  18. Numerical modeling of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and potential future hurricanes on spatial patterns of salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongqing; Chen, Qin; Hu, Kelin; Snedden, Gregg A.; Hartig, Ellen K.; Couvillion, Brady R.; Johnson, Cody L.; Orton, Philip M.

    2017-03-29

    The salt marshes of Jamaica Bay, managed by the New York City Department of Parks & Recreation and the Gateway National Recreation Area of the National Park Service, serve as a recreational outlet for New York City residents, mitigate flooding, and provide habitat for critical wildlife species. Hurricanes and extra-tropical storms have been recognized as one of the critical drivers of coastal wetland morphology due to their effects on hydrodynamics and sediment transport, deposition, and erosion processes. However, the magnitude and mechanisms of hurricane effects on sediment dynamics and associated coastal wetland morphology in the northeastern United States are poorly understood. In this study, the depth-averaged version of the Delft3D modeling suite, integrated with field measurements, was utilized to examine the effects of Hurricane Sandy and future potential hurricanes on salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City. Hurricane Sandy-induced wind, waves, storm surge, water circulation, sediment transport, deposition, and erosion were simulated by using the modeling system in which vegetation effects on flow resistance, surge reduction, wave attenuation, and sedimentation were also incorporated. Observed marsh elevation change and accretion from a rod surface elevation table and feldspar marker horizons and cesium-137- and lead-210-derived long-term accretion rates were used to calibrate and validate the wind-waves-surge-sediment transport-morphology coupled model.The model results (storm surge, waves, and marsh deposition and erosion) agreed well with field measurements. The validated modeling system was then used to detect salt marsh morphological change due to Hurricane Sandy across the entire Jamaica Bay over the short-term (for example, 4 days and 1 year) and long-term (for example, 5 and 10 years). Because Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Irene (2011) were two large and destructive tropical cyclones which hit the northeast coast, the validated coupled

  19. Community Post-Tornado Support Groups: Intervention and Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCammon, Susan; And Others

    Post-tornado support groups were organized by the Greene County, North Carolina disaster coordinators and the Pitt County outreach workers from the Community Mental Health Center sponsored tornado follow-up project. The most significant intervention used was the emphasis on creating a climate of group support by establishing a forum for…

  20. Apophysomyces trapeziformis infection associated with a tornado-related injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weddle, Gina; Gandy, Kimberly; Bratcher, Denise; Pahud, Barbara; Jackson, Mary Anne

    2012-06-01

    This report defines the role of Apophysomyces as an aggressive fungal pathogen seen after a tornado injury. Clinical and laboratory manifestations of infections after environmentally contaminated wounds incurred during a tornado are outlined, emphasizing mechanism of injury, comorbidities, and diagnostic and treatment challenges. Therapy with systemic antifungal therapy and aggressive serial tissue debridement was successful in achieving cure.

  1. Exploring the Experiences of Special Educators Following the Joplin Tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Allyson

    2013-01-01

    On May 22, 2011, an EF5 tornado ripped through Joplin, MO, leaving many residents without homes and destroying or damaging several school buildings. The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore how special education teachers responded to the needs of their students with disabilities following the Joplin tornado. Purposeful sampling was…

  2. Hurricane-induced failure of low salinity wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howes, Nick C.; FitzGerald, Duncan M.; Hughes, Zoe J.; Georgiou, Ioannis Y.; Kulp, Mark A.; Miner, Michael D.; Smith, Jane M.; Barras, John A.

    2010-01-01

    During the 2005 hurricane season, the storm surge and wave field associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita eroded 527 km2 of wetlands within the Louisiana coastal plain. Low salinity wetlands were preferentially eroded, while higher salinity wetlands remained robust and largely unchanged. Here we highlight geotechnical differences between the soil profiles of high and low salinity regimes, which are controlled by vegetation and result in differential erosion. In low salinity wetlands, a weak zone (shear strength 500–1450 Pa) was observed ∼30 cm below the marsh surface, coinciding with the base of rooting. High salinity wetlands had no such zone (shear strengths > 4500 Pa) and contained deeper rooting. Storm waves during Hurricane Katrina produced shear stresses between 425–3600 Pa, sufficient to cause widespread erosion of the low salinity wetlands. Vegetation in low salinity marshes is subject to shallower rooting and is susceptible to erosion during large magnitude storms; these conditions may be exacerbated by low inorganic sediment content and high nutrient inputs. The dramatic difference in resiliency of fresh versus more saline marshes suggests that the introduction of freshwater to marshes as part of restoration efforts may therefore weaken existing wetlands rendering them vulnerable to hurricanes. PMID:20660777

  3. National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards: Southeast Atlantic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Thompson, David M.; Sopkin, Kristin L.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2013-01-01

    Beaches serve as a natural barrier between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and natural resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During extreme storms, changes to beaches can be large, and the results are sometimes catastrophic. Lives may be lost, communities destroyed, and millions of dollars spent on rebuilding. During storms, large waves may erode beaches, and high storm surge shifts the erosive force of the waves higher on the beach. In some cases, the combined effects of waves and surge may cause overwash or flooding. Building and infrastructure on or near a dune can be undermined during wave attack and subsequent erosion. During Hurricane Ivan in 2004, a five-story condominium in Orange Beach, Alabama, collapsed after the sand dune supporting the foundation eroded. The September 1999 landfall of Hurricane Dennis caused erosion and undermining that destroyed roads, foundations, and septic systems. Waves overtopping a dune can transport sand inland, covering roads and blocking evacuation routes or emergency relief. If storm surge inundates barrier island dunes, currents flowing across the island can create a breach, or new inlet, completely severing evacuation routes. Waves and surge during the 2003 landfall of Hurricane Isabel left a 200-meter (m) wide breach that cut the only road to and from the village of Hatteras, N.C. Extreme coastal changes caused by hurricanes may increase the vulnerability of communities both during a storm and to future storms. For example, when sand dunes on a barrier island are eroded substantially, inland structures are exposed to storm surge and waves. Absent or low dunes also allow water to flow inland across the island, potentially increasing storm surge in the back bay, on the soundside of the barrier, and on the mainland. During Hurricane Isabel the protective sand dunes near the breach were completely eroded, increasing vulnerability to future

  4. Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

  5. National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards--Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Thompson, David M.; Sopkin, Kristin L.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Sallenger, Asbury H.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy beaches provide a natural barrier between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During a hurricane, these changes can be large and sometimes catastrophic. High waves and storm surge act together to erode beaches and inundate low-lying lands, putting inland communities at risk. A decade of USGS research on storm-driven coastal change hazards has provided the data and modeling capabilities to identify areas of our coastline that are likely to experience extreme and potentially hazardous erosion during a hurricane. This report defines hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards for sandy beaches along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastline. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respond to the direct landfall of category 1-5 hurricanes. Hurricane-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change: collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation. As new beach morphology observations and storm predictions become available, this analysis will be updated to describe how coastal vulnerability to storms will vary in the future.

  6. Review of worldwide occurrence of tornadoes

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Goliger, Adam M

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available USSR (Baltic Republics, Ukraine, White Russia and part of the Russian Republic). As the information on the geographical distribution given in Ref. [16] is very limited, only an approximate analysis of the mean rates of occurrence for various republics... was possible. This analysis revealed rates of occurrence of between 2 and 4]10~6/yr/km2 for Ukraine, White Russia and Moldavia. 5.7. Other countries Tornadoes have been reported in Scandinavia and several Swedish events have been documented. Although...

  7. Monitoring Hurricane Effects on Aquifer Salinity Using ALSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedighi, A.; Starek, M. J.

    2005-12-01

    During the Atlantic hurricane season of 2004, the Florida Pan Handle, Gulf Coast region, was impacted directly by three major hurricanes within approximately a one-month time period. The short temporal span between impacts coupled with the severity of the storms resulted in drastic changes to the littoral zone geomorphology including extensive shoreline erosion and accretion that directly affected the subsurface hydrogeologic environment. The most important direct physical effects of a hurricane are the following: coastal erosion, shoreline inundation owing to higher than normal tide levels plus increased temporary surge levels during storms, and saltwater intrusion primarily into estuaries and groundwater aquifers. Erosion and deposition during the hurricane change the elevation, which causes change in the position of shoreline. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of sea level inundation due to the hurricanes on the near shore subsurface freshwater-saltwater interface. By utilizing high-resolution Airborne Laser Swath Mapping (ALSM) altimetry data acquired shortly before and after the three major hurricane landfalls, the change in shoreline topography was estimated to determine both small-scale and large-scale horizontal encroachment and volumetric change in shoreline. This information was used to develop a before and after variable density groundwater flow model to determine the impact of the hurricanes on the subsurface saltwater-freshwater interface. SEAWAT (Langevin 2001; Guo and Langevin 2002), which simulates three-dimensional, variable-density groundwater flow following a modular structure similar to MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh 1988), was selected to represent the saltwater-freshwater interface in this investigation.

  8. Carbon monoxide exposures after hurricane Ike - Texas, September 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-14

    During power outages after hurricanes, survivors can be at risk for carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning if they use portable generators improperly. On September 13, 2008, Hurricane Ike struck the coast of Texas, leaving approximately 2.3 million households in the southeastern portion of the state without electricity. Six days later, 1.3 million homes were still without electrical power. To assess the impact of storm-related CO exposures and to enhance prevention efforts, CDC analyzed data from five disparate surveillance sources on CO exposures reported during September 13--26 in counties of southeast Texas that were declared disaster areas by the federal government. This report describes the results of that analysis, which indicated that one data source, Texas poison centers, received reports of 54 persons with storm-related CO exposures during the surveillance period. Another data source, the Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society (UHMS) hyperbaric oxygen treatment database, reported that 15 persons received hyperbaric oxygen treatment for storm-related CO poisoning. Medical examiners, public health officials, and hospitals in Texas reported that seven persons died from storm-related CO poisoning. Among the data sources, the percentage of reported storm-related CO exposures caused by improper generator use ranged from 82% to 87%. These findings underscore the need for effective prevention messages during storm preparation, warnings, and response periods regarding the correct use of generators and the installation and maintenance of battery-powered CO detectors.

  9. Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

    KAUST Repository

    Mandli, Kyle T.

    2014-03-01

    An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Storm Surge

    CERN Document Server

    Mandli, Kyle T

    2014-01-01

    An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the \\geoclaw framework and compared to \\adcirc for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run.

  11. Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.; Shugart, Herman H.

    2017-02-01

    Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model-based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes, manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the

  12. Coastal storm monitoring in Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicklein, Shaun M.; Bennett, Mark

    2014-01-01

    Coastal communities in Virginia are prone to flooding, particularly during hurricanes, nor’easters, and other coastal low-pressure systems. These weather systems affect public safety, personal and public property, and valuable infrastructure, such as transportation, water and sewer, and electric-supply networks. Local emergency managers, utility operators, and the public are tasked with making difficult decisions regarding evacuations, road closures, and post-storm recovery efforts as a result of coastal flooding. In coastal Virginia these decisions often are made on the basis of anecdotal knowledge from past events or predictions based on data from monitoring sites located far away from the affected area that may not reflect local conditions. Preventing flood hazards, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, from becoming human disasters requires an understanding of the relative risks that flooding poses to specific communities. The risk to life and property can be very high if decisions about evacuations and road closures are made too late or not at all.

  13. Giant tornadoes as rotating legs of solar prominences

    CERN Document Server

    Wedemeyer, Sven; van der Voort, Luc Rouppe; Bosnjak, Antonija; Antolin, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    Observations in the 171 AA channel of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly of the space-borne Solar Dynamics Observatory show tornadoes-like features in the atmosphere of the Sun. These giant tornadoes appear as dark, elongated and apparently rotating structures in front of a brighter background. This phenomenon is thought to be produced by rotating magnetic field structures that extend throughout the atmosphere. We characterize giant tornadoes through a statistical analysis of properties like spatial distribution, lifetimes, and sizes. A total number of 201 giant tornadoes are detected in a period of 25 days, suggesting that on average about 30 events are present across the whole Sun at a time close to solar maximum. Most tornadoes appear in groups and seem to form the legs of prominences, thus serving as plasma sources/sinks. Additional Halpha observations with the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope imply that giant tornadoes rotate as a structure although clearly exhibiting a thread-like structure. We observe tornado...

  14. Cooperative Hurricane Network Obs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observations from the Cooperative Hurricane Reporting Network (CHURN), a special network of stations that provided observations when tropical cyclones approached the...

  15. Hurricane Katrina disaster diplomacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelman, Ilan

    2007-09-01

    Hurricane Katrina struck the United States at the end of August 2005. The consequent devastation appeared to be beyond the US government's ability to cope with and aid was offered by several states in varying degrees of conflict with the US. Hurricane Katrina therefore became a potential case study for 'disaster diplomacy', which examines how disaster-related activities do and do not yield diplomatic gains. A review of past disaster diplomacy work is provided. The literature's case studies are then categorised using a new typology: propinquity, aid relationship, level and purpose. Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath are then placed in the context of the US government's foreign policy, the international response to the disaster and the US government's reaction to these responses. The evidence presented is used to discuss the potential implications of Hurricane Katrina disaster diplomacy, indicating that factors other than disaster-related activities generally dominate diplomatic relations and foreign policy.

  16. Hurricane Katrina Water Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked with FEMA and state and local agencies to respond to the emergencies throughout the Gulf.

  17. Hurricane Katrina Sediment Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked with FEMA and state and local agencies to respond to the emergencies throughout the Gulf.

  18. Hurricane Katrina Soil Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked with FEMA and state and local agencies to respond to the emergencies throughout the Gulf.

  19. Hurricane Katrina Water Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  20. Hurricane Katrina Soil Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  1. Hurricane Katrina Sediment Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  2. Hurricane Ike Deposits on the Bolivar Peninsula, Galveston Bay, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Cynthia A.; Wilkinson, M. J.; Eppler, Dean

    2011-01-01

    In September 2008, Hurricane Ike made landfall on Galveston Bay, close to the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). The storm flooded much of the area with a storm surge ranging from 11 -20 feet. The Bolivar peninsula, the southeastern coast of Galveston Bay, experienced the brunt of the surge. Several agencies collected excellent imagery baselines before the storm and complementary data a few days afterward that helped define the impacts of the storm. In April of 2011, a team of scientists and astronauts from JSC conducted field mapping exercises along the Bolivar Peninsula, the section of the Galveston Bay coast most impacted by the storm. Astronauts routinely observe and document coastal changes from orbit aboard the International Space Station. As part of their basic Earth Science training, scientists at the Johnson Space Center take astronauts out for field mapping exercises so that they can better recognize and understand features and processes that they will later observe from the International Space Station. Using pre -storm baseline images of the Bolivar Peninsula near Rollover Pass and Gilchrist (NOAA/Google Earth Imagery and USGS aerial imagery and lidar data), the astronauts mapped current coastline positions at defined locations, and related their findings to specific coastal characteristics, including channel, jetties, and other developments. In addition to mapping, we dug trenches along both the Gulf of Mexico coast as well as the Galveston Bay coast of the Bolivar peninsula to determine the depth of the scouring from the storm on the Gulf side, and the amount of deposition of the storm surge deposits on the Bay side of the peninsula. The storm signature was easy to identify by sharp sediment transitions and, in the case of storm deposits, a layer of storm debris (roof shingles, PVC pipes, etc) and black, organic rich layers containing buried sea grasses in areas that were marshes before the storm. The amount of deposition was generally about 20 -25 cm

  3. User perception and interpretation of tornado probabilistic hazard information: Comparison of four graphical designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miran, Seyed M; Ling, Chen; James, Joseph J; Gerard, Alan; Rothfusz, Lans

    2017-11-01

    Effective design for presenting severe weather information is important to reduce devastating consequences of severe weather. The Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) system for severe weather is being developed by NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) to communicate probabilistic hazardous weather information. This study investigates the effects of four PHI graphical designs for tornado threat, namely, "four-color"," red-scale", "grayscale" and "contour", on users' perception, interpretation, and reaction to threat information. PHI is presented on either a map background or a radar background. Analysis showed that the accuracy was significantly higher and response time faster when PHI was displayed on map background as compared to radar background due to better contrast. When displayed on a radar background, "grayscale" design resulted in a higher accuracy of responses. Possibly due to familiarity, participants reported four-color design as their favorite design, which also resulted in the fastest recognition of probability levels on both backgrounds. Our study shows the importance of using intuitive color-coding and sufficient contrast in conveying probabilistic threat information via graphical design. We also found that users follows a rational perceiving-judging-feeling-and acting approach in processing probabilistic hazard information for tornado. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Prepare to protect: Operating and maintaining a tornado safe room.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herseth, Andrew; Goldsmith-Grinspoon, Jennifer; Scott, Pataya

    2017-06-01

    Operating and maintaining a tornado safe room can be critical to the effective continuity of business operations because a firm's most valuable asset is its people. This paper describes aspects of operations and maintenance (O&M) for existing tornado safe rooms as well as a few planning and design aspects that affect the ultimate operation of a safe room for situations where a safe room is planned, but not yet constructed. The information is based on several Federal Emergency Management Agency safe room publications that provide guidance on emergency management and operations, as well as the design and construction of tornado safe rooms.

  5. Potential of MODIS EVI in Identifying Hurricane Disturbance to Coastal Vegetation in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fugui Wang

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Frequent hurricane landfalls along the northern Gulf of Mexico, in addition to causing immediate damage to vegetation, also have long term effects on coastal ecosystem structure and function. This study investigated the utility of using time series enhanced vegetation index (EVI imagery composited in MODIS product MOD13Q1 for assessing hurricane damage to vegetation and its recovery. Vegetation in four US coastal states disturbed by five hurricanes between 2002 and 2008 were explored by change imagery derived from pre- and post-hurricane EVI data. Interpretation of the EVI changes within months and between years distinguished a clear disturbance pattern caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, and a recovering trend of the vegetation between 2005 and 2008, particularly within the 100 km coastal zone. However, for Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Lili, the disturbance pattern which varied by the change imagery were not noticeable in some images due to lighter vegetation damage. The EVI pre- and post-hurricane differences between two adjacent years and around one month after hurricane disturbance provided the most likely damage area and patterns. The study also revealed that as hurricanes damaged vegetation in some coastal areas, strong precipitation associated with these storms may benefit growth of vegetation in other areas. Overall, the study illustrated that the MODIS product could be employed to detect severe hurricane damage to vegetation, monitor vegetation recovery dynamics, and assess benefits of hurricanes to vegetation.

  6. Variability of tornado occurrence over the continental United States since 1950

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Li; Wang, Kaicun; Bluestein, Howard B.

    2016-06-01

    The United States experiences the most tornadoes of any country in the world. Given the catastrophic impact of tornadoes, concern has arisen regarding the variation in climatology of U.S. tornadoes under the changing climate. A recent study claimed that the temporal variability of tornado occurrence over the continental U.S. has increased since the 1970s. However, that study ignored the highly regionalized climatology of U.S. tornadoes. To address this issue, we examined the long-term trend of tornado temporal variability in each continental U.S. state. Based on the 64 year tornado records (1950-2013), we found that the trends in tornado temporal variability varied across the U.S., with only one third of the continental area or three out of 10 contiguous states (mostly from the Great Plains and Southeast, but where the frequency of occurrence of tornadoes is greater) displaying a significantly increasing trend. The other two-thirds area, where 60% of the U.S. tornadoes were reported (but the frequency of occurrence of tornadoes is less), however, showed a decreasing or a near-zero trend in tornado temporal variability. Furthermore, unlike the temporal variability alone, the combined spatial-temporal variability of U.S. tornado occurrence has remained nearly constant since 1950. Such detailed information on the climatological variability of U.S. tornadoes refines the claim of previous study and can be helpful for local mitigation efforts toward future tornado risks.

  7. Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glantz, M. H.

    2008-04-01

    By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time. Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region. The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1). Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on the order of 20 feet or so. The Ninth Ward, heavily

  8. Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Glantz

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time.

    Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region.

    The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1.

    Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on

  9. Water level response in back-barrier bays unchanged following Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Butman, Bradford; Ganju, Neil K.

    2014-01-01

    On 28–30 October 2012, Hurricane Sandy caused severe flooding along portions of the northeast coast of the United States and cut new inlets across barrier islands in New Jersey and New York. About 30% of the 20 highest daily maximum water levels observed between 2007 and 2013 in Barnegat and Great South Bay occurred in 5 months following Hurricane Sandy. Hurricane Sandy provided a rare opportunity to determine whether extreme events alter systems protected by barrier islands, leaving the mainland more vulnerable to flooding. Comparisons between water levels before and after Hurricane Sandy at bay stations and an offshore station show no significant differences in the transfer of sea level fluctuations from offshore to either bay following Sandy. The post-Hurricane Sandy bay high water levels reflected offshore sea levels caused by winter storms, not by barrier island breaching or geomorphic changes within the bays.

  10. Did Hurricane Sandy influence the 2012 US presidential election?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Joshua

    2014-07-01

    Despite drawing on a common pool of data, observers of the 2012 presidential campaign came to different conclusions about whether, how, and to what extent "October surprise" Hurricane Sandy influenced the election. The present study used a mixed correlational and experimental design to assess the relation between, and effect of, the salience of Hurricane Sandy on attitudes and voting intentions regarding President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in a large sample of voting-aged adults. Results suggest that immediately following positive news coverage of Obama's handling of the storm's aftermath, Sandy's salience positively influenced attitudes toward Obama, but that by election day, reminders of the hurricane became a drag instead of a boon for the President. In addition to theoretical implications, this study provides an example of how to combine methodological approaches to help answer questions about the impact of unpredictable, large-scale events as they unfold.

  11. Unique Meteorological Data During Hurricane Ike's Passage Over Houston

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schade, Gunnar; Rappenglück, Bernhard

    2009-06-01

    Hurricane Ike passed over the Houston, Tex., metropolitan area during the early morning of 13 September 2008. Although Ike had been rated only a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale at landfall near Galveston, Tex., the storm's widespread damage to urban trees, many lacking proper trimming, knocked out the area's power distribution system; for some customers, power was only restored a month later. The hurricane's path after landfall (Figure 1a) went north through Galveston Bay and Baytown. The city of Houston—with its economically important ship channel—experienced the less severe western eye wall, the tight circulation with maximum wind speeds around the hurricane'ps center. The eye's passage was recorded between 3:00 and 4:30 A.M. Central Standard Time (CST; Figures 1a and 1c). It had maintained its unusually large diameter of 35-40 kilometers in its first hours after landfall.

  12. Anomalous Gulf Heating and Hurricane Katrinas Rapid Intensification

    CERN Document Server

    Kafatos, M; Gautam, R; Sun, Z B D; Cervone, Guido; Gautam, Ritesh; Kafatos, Menas; Sun, Zafer Boybeyi & Donglian

    2005-01-01

    Global warming due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases has become a great concern and has been linked to increased hurricane activity associated with higher sea surface temperatures with conflicting views. Our observational results based on long term trends of sea surface temperatures reveal that the anomaly reached a record 0.8 C in the Gulf of Mexico in August 2005 as compared to previous years and may have been responsible for the intensification of the devastating Hurricane Katrina into a category 5 hurricane that hit the Southern coast of United States severely impacting the low lying city of New Orleans and the surrounding areas. In most intensifying storms, air-sea interaction is the major contributing factor and here we show how air-sea interactions might have affected Katrinas rapid intensification in the Gulf.

  13. Reconnaissance Level Studies on a Storm Surge Barrier for Flood Risk Reduction in the Houston-Galveston Bay

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Mooyaart, L.F.; Van Ledden, M.; Stoeten, K.J.; De Vries, P.A.L.; Lendering, K.T.; Van der Toorn, A.; Willems, A.

    2014-01-01

    The Houston - Galveston area is at significant risk from hurricane induced storm surges. This paper summarizes ongoing studies on flood risk reduction for the region. Firstly, based on a simplified probabilistic hurricane surge model , the return periods of surges within the bay have been estimated.

  14. Hurricane Sandy science plan: coastal impact assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stronko, Jakob M.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: coastal topography and bathymetry, impacts to coastal beaches and barriers, impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology, impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures, impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife. This fact sheet focuses assessing impacts to coastal beaches and barriers.

  15. A Simulation Tool for Hurricane Evacuation Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J. Fonseca

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Atlantic hurricanes and severe tropical storms are a serious threat for the communities in the Gulf of Mexico region. Such storms are violent and destructive. In response to these dangers, coastal evacuation may be ordered. This paper describes the development of a simulation model to analyze the movement of vehicles through I-65, a major US Interstate highway that runs north off the coastal City of Mobile, Alabama, towards the State of Tennessee, during a massive evacuation originated by a disastrous event such a hurricane. The constructed simulation platform consists of a primary and two secondary models. The primary model is based on the entry of vehicles from the 20 on-ramps to I-65. The two secondary models assist the primary model with related traffic events such as car breakdowns and accidents, traffic control measures, interarrival signaling, and unforeseen emergency incidents, among others. Statistical testing was performed on the data generated by the simulation model to indentify variation in relevant traffic variables affecting the timely flow of vehicles travelling north. The performed statistical analysis focused on the closing of alternative on-ramps throughout the Interstate.

  16. Adverse respiratory symptoms and environmental exposures among children and adolescents following Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rath, Barbara; Young, Elizabeth A; Harris, Amy; Perrin, Keith; Bronfin, Daniel R; Ratard, Raoult; Vandyke, Russell; Goldshore, Matthew; Magnus, Manya

    2011-01-01

    Children and adolescents are especially vulnerable to environmental exposures and their respiratory effects. Following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, residents experienced multiple adverse environmental exposures. We characterized the association between upper respiratory symptoms (URS) and lower respiratory symptoms (LRS) and environmental exposures among children and adolescents affected by Hurricane Katrina. We conducted a cross-sectional study following the return of the population to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina (October 2005 and February 2006) among a convenience sample of children and adolescents attending New Orleans health facilities. We used uni-, bi-, and multivariable analyses to describe participants, exposures, and associations with URS/LRS. Of 1,243 participants, 47% were Caucasian, 50% were male, and 72% were younger than 11 years of age. Multiple environmental exposures were identified during and after the storm and at current residences: roof/glass/storm damage (50%), outside mold (22%), dust (18%), and flood damage (15%). Self-reported URS and LRS (76% and 36%, respectively) were higher after the hurricane than before the hurricane (22% and 9%, respectively, pHurricane Katrina experienced environmental exposures associated with increased prevalence of reported URS and LRS. Additional research is needed to investigate the long-term health impacts of Hurricane Katrina.

  17. Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of Greek complex topography on tornado genesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. T. Matsangouras

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Tornadoes have been reported in Greece over the last decades in specific sub-geographical areas and have been associated with strong synoptic forcing. It is well known that meteorological conditions over Greece are affected at various scales by the significant variability of topography, the Ionian Sea at the west and the Aegean Sea at the east. However, there is still uncertainty regarding topography's importance on tornadic generation and development. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of topography in significant tornado genesis events that were triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over Greece. Three tornado events that occurred over the last years in Thiva (Boeotia, 17 November 2007, Vrastema (Chalkidiki, 12 February 2010 and Vlychos (Lefkada, 20 September 2011 have been selected for numerical experiments. These events were associated with synoptic scale forcing, while their intensity was T4–T5 (Torro scale and caused significant damage. The simulations were performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF, initialized with ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso scale. In the experiments the topography of the inner grid was modified by: (a 0% (actual topography and (b −100% (without topography. The aim was to determine whether the occurrence of tornadoes – mainly identified by various severe weather instability indices – could be indicated by modifying topography. The main utilized instability variables concerned the Bulk Richardson number shear (BRN, the energy helicity index (EHI, the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcel with maximum theta-e. Additional a verification of model was conducted for every sensitivity experiment accompanied with analysis absolute vorticity budget

  18. Hurricanes, climate change and the cholera epidemic in Puerto Rico of 1855-1856.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christenson, Bernard

    2008-01-01

    Hurricanes and global climate changes may affect the environmental factors of cholera dynamics in warm coastal areas, vulnerable to seasonal or sporadic outbreaks. The cholera epidemic of Puerto Rico in 1855-1856 had a profound effect on the Puerto Rican society; but it was not influenced by any climatic events, such as preceding hurricanes or storms based on past documentary sources. Particularly, the environmental non-toxigenic strains of Vibrio Cholerae in Puerto Rican water sources can maintain their pathogenic potential for sporadic or erratic toxigenic cholera outbreaks--if a "perfect storm" ever occurs.

  19. Hurricane Paloma’s effects on seagrasses along Jardines de la Reina archipelago, Cuba

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    Seagrasses are one of the most important coastal ecosystems since they promote organic matter flow, nutrient cycling, food availability and refuge. Until now, reports on damages caused by storms and hurricanes on seagrass beds are uncommon and highly variable. The seagrass meadows of the East end of Jardines de la Reina archipelago were surveyed from Nov. 29th to Dec. 5th of 2008, in order to determinate the effects from the passing of Hurricane Paloma: a category three storm on the Saffir-Si...

  20. United States Tornado Touchdown Points 1950-2004 - Direct Download

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This map layer shows tornado touchdown points in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, from 1950 to 2004. Statistical data were obtained from...

  1. Hurricane interaction with the upper ocean in the Amazon-Orinoco plume region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Androulidakis, Yannis; Kourafalou, Vassiliki; Halliwell, George; Le Hénaff, Matthieu; Kang, Heesook; Mehari, Michael; Atlas, Robert

    2016-12-01

    The evolution of three successive hurricanes (Katia, Maria, and Ophelia) is investigated over the river plume area formed by the Amazon and Orinoco river outflows during September of 2011. The study focuses on hurricane impacts on the ocean structure and the ocean feedback influencing hurricane intensification. High-resolution (1/25° × 1/25° horizontal grid) numerical simulations of the circulation in the extended Atlantic Hurricane Region (Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Northwest Atlantic Ocean) were used to investigate the upper ocean response during the three hurricane-plume interaction cases. The three hurricanes revealed different evolution and intensification characteristics over an area covered by brackish surface waters. The upper ocean response to the hurricane passages over the plume affected region showed high variability due to the interaction of oceanic and atmospheric processes. The existence of a barrier layer (BL), formed by the offshore spreading of brackish waters, probably facilitated intensification of the first storm (Hurricane Katia) because the river-induced BL enhanced the resistance of the upper ocean to cooling. This effect was missing in the subsequent two hurricanes (Maria and Ophelia) as the eroded BL (due to Katia passage) allowed the upper ocean cooling to be increased. As a consequence, the amount of ocean thermal energy provided to these storms was greatly reduced, which acted to limit intensification. Numerical experiments and analyses, in tandem with observational support, lead to the conclusion that the presence of a river plume-induced BL is a strong factor in the ocean conditions influencing hurricane intensification.

  2. Monitoring poison control center data to detect health hazards during hurricane season--Florida, 2003-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-04-21

    Eight hurricanes made landfall in Florida from August 13, 2004, through October 24, 2005. Each hurricane caused flooding and widespread power outages. In the fall of 2004, the Florida Department of Health (FDOH) began retrospectively reviewing data collected by the Florida Poison Information Center Network (FPICN) during the 2004 hurricane season. During the 2005 hurricane season, FDOH, in consultation with FPICN, initiated daily monitoring of FPICN records of exposures that might reflect storm-related health hazards. Analysis of these data determined that 28 carbon monoxide (CO) exposures were reported to FPICN in the 2 days after Hurricane Katrina made its August 25, 2005, landfall in Florida, en route to a second landfall on the Gulf Coast. Data on CO and other exposures were used to develop and distribute public health prevention messages to Florida communities affected by hurricanes.

  3. Late Holocene Hurricane Activity in the Gulf of Mexico from a Bayou Sediment Archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodysill, J. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Toomey, M.; Sullivan, R.; MacDonald, D.; Evans, R. L.; Ashton, A. D.

    2012-12-01

    Hurricanes pose a considerable threat to coastal communities along the Atlantic seaboard and in the Gulf of Mexico. The complex role of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in controlling storm frequency and intensity, and how these relationships could be affected by climate change, remains uncertain. To better predict how storms will impact coastal communities, it is vital to constrain their past behavior, in particular how storm frequency and intensity and the pattern of storm tracks have been influenced by past climate conditions. In an effort to characterize past storm behavior, our work contributes to the growing network of storm records along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts by reconstructing storm-induced deposits in the northern Gulf of Mexico during the Late Holocene. Previous work on the northern Gulf coast has shown considerable centennial-scale variability in the occurrence of intense hurricanes, much like the northern Atlantic coast and in the Caribbean Sea. The timing of active and quiet intervals during the last 1000 years amongst the Gulf Coast records appears to be anti-phased with stormy intervals along the North American east coast. The sparse spatial coverage of the existing intense hurricane reconstructions provides a limited view of the natural variability of intense hurricanes. A new, high resolution reconstruction of storms along the northern Gulf Coast would be beneficial in assembling the picture of the patterns of storminess during the Late Holocene. Our study site, Basin Bayou, is situated on the north side of Choctawhatchee Bay in northwest Florida. From 1851 to 2011, 68 storms have struck the coast within 75 miles of Basin Bayou, of which 10 were Category 3 or greater, making it a prime location to reconstruct intense hurricanes. Basin Bayou openly exchanges water with Choctawhatchee Bay through a narrow channel, which acts as a conduit for propagating storm surges, and potentially coarse-grained bay sediments, into the bayou. Our record is

  4. A complex adaptive system approach to forecasting hurricane tracks

    OpenAIRE

    Lear, Matthew R.

    2005-01-01

    , for the life of the storm, perform the best in terms of the distance between forecast and best-track positions. A TAF forecast is developed using a linear combination of the highest weighted predictors. When applied to the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, the TAF system with a requirement to contain a minimum of three predictors, consistently outperformed, although not statistically significant, the CONU forecast at 72 and 96 hours for a homogeneous data set. At 120 hours, the TAF system s...

  5. Documentation and hydrologic analysis of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, October 29–30, 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suro, Thomas P.; Deetz, Anna; Hearn, Paul

    2016-11-17

    In 2012, a late season tropical depression developed into a tropical storm and later a hurricane. The hurricane, named “Hurricane Sandy,” gained strength to a Category 3 storm on October 25, 2012, and underwent several transitions on its approach to the mid-Atlantic region of the eastern coast of the United States. By October 28, 2012, Hurricane Sandy had strengthened into the largest hurricane ever recorded in the North Atlantic and was tracking parallel to the east coast of United States, heading toward New Jersey. On October 29, 2012, the storm turned west-northwest and made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. The high winds and wind-driven storm surge caused massive damage along the entire coastline of New Jersey. Millions of people were left without power or communication networks. Many homes were completely destroyed. Sand dunes were eroded, and the barrier island at Mantoloking was breached, connecting the ocean with Barnegat Bay.Several days before the storm made landfall in New Jersey, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) made a decision to deploy a temporary network of storm-tide sensors and barometric pressure sensors from Virginia to Maine to supplement the existing USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent tide monitoring stations. After the storm made landfall, the USGS conducted a sensor data recovery and high-water-mark collection campaign in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).Peak storm-tide elevations documented at USGS tide gages, tidal crest-stage gages, temporary storm sensor locations, and high-water-mark sites indicate the area from southern Monmouth County, N.J., north through Raritan Bay, N.J., had the highest peak storm-tide elevations during this storm. The USGS tide gages at Raritan River at South Amboy and Raritan Bay at Keansburg, part of the New Jersey Tide Telemetry System, each recorded peak storm-tide elevations of greater than 13 feet (ft)—more than 5 ft

  6. Continental United States Hurricane Strikes

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...

  7. Predictors of compliance with tornado warnings issued in Joplin, Missouri, in 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Bimal Kanti; Stimers, Mitchel; Caldas, Marcellus

    2015-01-01

    Joplin, a city in the southwest corner of Missouri, United States, suffered an EF-5 tornado in the late afternoon of 22 May 2011. This event, which claimed the lives of 162 people, represents the deadliest single tornado to strike the US since modern record-keeping began in 1950. This study examines the factors associated with responses to tornado warnings. Based on a post-tornado survey of survivors in Joplin, it reveals that tornado warnings were adequate and timely. Multivariate logistic regression identified four statistically significant determinants of compliance with tornado warnings: number of warning sources, whether respondents were at home when the tornado struck, past tornado experience, and gender. The findings suggest several recommendations, the implementation of which will further improve responses to tornado warnings. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  8. Impact of Hurricanes and Nor'easters on a Migrating Inlet System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, J.; Elgar, S.; Raubenheimer, B.

    2016-12-01

    After breaching in 2007, Katama Inlet, connecting Katama Bay to the Atlantic Ocean on the south shore of Martha's Vineyard, MA, migrated 2 km until it closed in 2015. Bathymetric surveys before and after Hurricanes Irene (2011) and Sandy (2012) indicate the strong waves and currents associated with these storms caused 2 m of erosion and deposition around the inlet mouth. The waves, currents, and bathymetric change observed during the hurricanes were used to validate the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic components of a Delft3D numerical model of the Martha's Vineyard coastline for storm (> 3 m wave heights) conditions. When driven with observed bathymetry and offshore waves, as well as simulated (WaveWatch3) winds and barometric pressures, the model reproduces the pattern and range of bathymetric change observed around the inlet. Model simulations of realistic (i.e., Irene and Sandy) and idealized storm conditions with a range of durations and wave conditions are used to test the relative importance of short-duration, high-intensity storms (hurricanes) and longer-duration, lower-intensity storms (nor'easters) on inlet migration. The simulations suggest that longer-duration, lower-intensity storms cause a higher range and variance in bathymetric change around the inlet than shorter-duration, higher-intensity storms. However, the simulations also suggest that the storm-induced migration of the inlet depends more on the wave direction at the peak of the storm than on the duration of the storm peak. The effect of storms on inlet migration over yearly time scales will be discussed. Funded by NSF, NOAA, ONR, and ASD(R&E).

  9. Hurricane Katrina: A Teachable Moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, Peggy

    2009-01-01

    This article presents suggestions for integrating the phenomenon of hurricanes into the teaching of high school fluid mechanics. Students come to understand core science concepts in the context of their impact upon both the environment and human populations. Suggestions for using information about hurricanes, particularly Hurricane Katrina, in a…

  10. Hurricane Katrina: A Teachable Moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, Peggy

    2009-01-01

    This article presents suggestions for integrating the phenomenon of hurricanes into the teaching of high school fluid mechanics. Students come to understand core science concepts in the context of their impact upon both the environment and human populations. Suggestions for using information about hurricanes, particularly Hurricane Katrina, in a…

  11. Hurricane Risk Variability along the Gulf of Mexico Coastline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepanier, Jill C.; Ellis, Kelsey N.; Tucker, Clay S.

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran’s I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs. PMID:25767885

  12. Hurricane risk variability along the Gulf of Mexico coastline.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill C Trepanier

    Full Text Available Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency, the scale or σ (range, and the shape or ξ (intensity of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant, suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran's I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs.

  13. Hurricane risk variability along the Gulf of Mexico coastline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepanier, Jill C; Ellis, Kelsey N; Tucker, Clay S

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran's I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs.

  14. North Atlantic Ocean OSSE system development: Nature Run evaluation and application to hurricane interaction with the Gulf Stream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourafalou, Vassiliki H.; Androulidakis, Yannis S.; Halliwell, George R.; Kang, HeeSook; Mehari, Michael M.; Le Hénaff, Matthieu; Atlas, Robert; Lumpkin, Rick

    2016-11-01

    A high resolution, free-running model has been developed for the hurricane region of the North Atlantic Ocean. The model is evaluated with a variety of observations to ensure that it adequately represents both the ocean climatology and variability over this region, with a focus on processes relevant to hurricane-ocean interactions. As such, it can be used as the "Nature Run" (NR) model within the framework of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), designed specifically to improve the ocean component of coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane forecast models. The OSSE methodology provides quantitative assessment of the impact of specific observations on the skill of forecast models and enables the comprehensive design of future observational platforms and the optimization of existing ones. Ocean OSSEs require a state-of-the-art, high-resolution free-running model simulation that represents the true ocean (the NR). This study concentrates on the development and data based evaluation of the NR model component, which leads to a reliable model simulation that has a dual purpose: (a) to provide the basis for future hurricane related OSSEs; (b) to explore process oriented studies of hurricane-ocean interactions. A specific example is presented, where the impact of Hurricane Bill (2009) on the eastward extension and transport of the Gulf Stream is analyzed. The hurricane induced cold wake is shown in both NR simulation and observations. Interaction of storm-forced currents with the Gulf Stream produced a temporary large reduction in eastward transport downstream from Cape Hatteras and had a marked influence on frontal displacement in the upper ocean. The kinetic energy due to ageostrophic currents showed a significant increase as the storm passed, and then decreased to pre-storm levels within 8 days after the hurricane advanced further north. This is a unique result of direct hurricane impact on a western boundary current, with possible implications on the ocean

  15. Hurricane Imaging Radiometer Wind Speed and Rain Rate Retrievals during the 2010 GRIP Flight Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahawneh, Saleem; Farrar, Spencer; Johnson, James; Jones, W. Linwood; Roberts, Jason; Biswas, Sayak; Cecil, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Microwave remote sensing observations of hurricanes, from NOAA and USAF hurricane surveillance aircraft, provide vital data for hurricane research and operations, for forecasting the intensity and track of tropical storms. The current operational standard for hurricane wind speed and rain rate measurements is the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a nadir viewing passive microwave airborne remote sensor. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer, HIRAD, will extend the nadir viewing SFMR capability to provide wide swath images of wind speed and rain rate, while flying on a high altitude aircraft. HIRAD was first flown in the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes, GRIP, NASA hurricane field experiment in 2010. This paper reports on geophysical retrieval results and provides hurricane images from GRIP flights. An overview of the HIRAD instrument and the radiative transfer theory based, wind speed/rain rate retrieval algorithm is included. Results are presented for hurricane wind speed and rain rate for Earl and Karl, with comparison to collocated SFMR retrievals and WP3D Fuselage Radar images for validation purposes.

  16. Serious emotional disturbance among youths exposed to Hurricane Katrina 2 years postdisaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Katie A; Fairbank, John A; Gruber, Michael J; Jones, Russell T; Lakoma, Matthew D; Pfefferbaum, Betty; Sampson, Nancy A; Kessler, Ronald C

    2009-11-01

    To estimate the prevalence of serious emotional disturbance (SED) among children and adolescents exposed to Hurricane Katrina along with the associations of SED with hurricane-related stressors, sociodemographics, and family factors 18 to 27 months after the hurricane. A probability sample of prehurricane residents of areas affected by Hurricane Katrina was administered a telephone survey. Respondents provided information on up to two of their children (n = 797) aged 4 to 17 years. The survey assessed hurricane-related stressors and lifetime history of psychopathology in respondents, screened for 12-month SED in respondents' children using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, and determined whether children's emotional and behavioral problems were attributable to Hurricane Katrina. The estimated prevalence of SED was 14.9%, and 9.3% of the youths were estimated to have SED that is directly attributable to Hurricane Katrina. Stress exposure was associated strongly with SED, and 20.3% of the youths with high stress exposure had hurricane-attributable SED. Death of a loved one had the strongest association with SED among prehurricane residents of New Orleans, whereas exposure to physical adversity had the strongest association in the remainder of the sample. Among children with stress exposure, parental psychopathology and poverty were associated with SED. The prevalence of SED among youths exposed to Hurricane Katrina remains high 18 to 27 months after the storm, suggesting a substantial need for mental health treatment resources in the hurricane-affected areas. The youths who were exposed to hurricane-related stressors, have a family history of psychopathology, and have lower family incomes are at greatest risk for long-term psychiatric impairment.

  17. Disaster preparedness of dialysis patients for Hurricanes Gustav and Ike 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinpeter, Myra A

    2009-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita resulted in massive devastation of the Gulf Coast at Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas during 2005. Because of those disasters, dialysis providers, nephrologists, and dialysis patients used disaster planning activities to work to mitigate the morbidity and mortality associated with the 2005 hurricane season for future events affecting dialysis patients. As Hurricane Gustav approached, anniversary events for Hurricane Katrina were postponed because of evacuation orders for nearly the entire Louisiana Gulf Coast. As part of the hurricane preparation, dialysis units reviewed the disaster plans of patients, and patients made preparation for evacuation. Upon evacuation, many patients returned to the dialysis units that had provided services during their exile from Hurricane Katrina; other patients went to other locations as part of their evacuation plan. Patients uniformly reported positive experiences with dialysis providers in their temporary evacuation communities, provided that those communities did not experience the effects of Hurricane Gustav. With the exception of evacuees to Baton Rouge, patients continued to receive their treatments uninterrupted. Because of extensive damage in the Baton Rouge area, resulting in widespread power losses and delayed restoration of power to hospitals and other health care facilities, some patients missed one treatment. However, as a result of compliance with disaster fluid and dietary recommendations, no adverse outcomes occurred. In most instances, patients were able to return to their home dialysis unit or a nearby unit to continue dialysis treatments within 4 - 5 days of Hurricane Gustav. Hurricane Ike struck the Texas Gulf Coast near Galveston, resulting in devastation of that area similar to the devastation seen in New Orleans after Katrina. The storm surge along the Louisiana Gulf Coast resulted in flooding that temporarily closed coastal dialysis units. Patients were prepared and experienced

  18. The influence of coastal wetlands on hurricane surge in Corpus Christi, TX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, C.; Irish, J. L.; Olivera, F.

    2010-12-01

    The State of Texas has historically faced hurricane-related damage episodes, with Ike being the most recent example. It is expected that, in the future, hurricanes will intensify due to climate change causing greater surges, while the attenuating effect of wetlands on storm surges will also be modified due to sea level rise changes in wetland vegetation type and spatial location. Numerical analysis of storm surges is an important instrument to predict and simulate flooding extent and magnitude in coastal areas. Most operational surge models account for the influence of wetlands and other vegetation by momentum loss due to friction at the bottom and by reduction of imposed wind stress. A coupled hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) and wave model (SWAN) was employed, and wetlands were characterized using Manning’s n, surface canopy, and surface roughness. The wetlands parameters were developed from: 1) the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 1992 and 2001; 2) the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) 2001. The calibrated coupled model for two historical hurricanes, Bret and Beulah, was used to simulate the storm surge for each scenario. Preliminary results for the sensitivity analyses, for hurricane Bret, comparing the scenarios with parameters developed from NLCD and NWI datasets with four hypothetical scenarios considering very high and low Manning’s n and wind stress (surface canopy) values showed that, for areas inside Nueces Bay, the storm surge high could vary up to four times depending on the parameter selection, for areas inside Corpus Christi Bay, the storm surge high varied around three times and behind the barrier island the storm surge high variation was less than three times. This study is a first step for an evaluation of the impact that sea level rise, climate changed wetlands, wetlands restoration, land use change, and wetlands degradation have on hurricane related surge elevation and extent in the city of Corpus Christi.

  19. Force Analysis of Space Truss Subjected to Tornado Loads%龙卷风作用下空间桁架的受力分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    白俊峰; 鞠彦忠; 曾聪

    2011-01-01

    Tornado is a striking destructive and complex storm. The numerical wind field model of tornado is established by summing up the previous theory including the vortex movement theory, statistical analysis of measured data, degree of risk and an actual event. A new load method of space truss Subjecting to tornado has been put forward. Force Analysis is given that transmission tower as a kind of typical space truss subjected to Tornado Loads. The calculation results show that the response of transmission tower which subjected to tornado loads is similar to natural wind loads.%龙卷风是一种破坏力巨大、风场结构复杂的暴风。本文从涡运动理论、实测数据统计分析、半经验公式和龙卷风风险度模型等几方面解析龙卷风风场结构,并结合实例建立龙卷风的风场数值模型。挺出在龙卷风作角下桁架结构的樯载处理方法和加载方法,以输电塔为例分析在龙卷风作用下的受力情况,结果显示龙卷风作用下桁架结构的响应同相同风速自然风作用下的响应很相近。

  20. Frequent Disasters in Mexico: hurricanes Pauline and Manuel in Acapulco, Guerrero

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Manuel Rodríguez Esteves

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Hurricanes and other tropical storms are natural phenomena that attract the interest of people all over the world, especially when they affect coastal communities. Each year, especially during the hurricane season, it is common to read or see in the different media damage caused by tropical storms in several countries, especially in Latin America and Asia. In Mexico total economic losses associated with natural phenomena has been increasing. During the year 2000 were allocated 230 million US dollars for the reconstruction of the infrastructure affected by hydrometeorological phenomena, while in 2013 damage amounted to $ 4,476 million, peaking during 2010 were recorded when 7,208 million dollars in losses. On the other hand, the total of damage caused by natural phenomena, 92 % were associated with hydrometeorological phenomena, which include hurricanes and other phenomena (SEGOB, 2014. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impacts caused by disasters associated with the influence of hurricanes from a comparative perspective between two phenomena in particular, hurricane Pauline in 1997 and Manuel storm in 2013 events hydrometeorological which affected the Mexican state of Guerrero, but especially to the port of Acapulco. one of the main conclusions of this study refers to that no matter only the intensity of the natural phenomenon to generate damage on society, but the total of damages also refers to the contexts of vulnerability generated by a society with the course of the years.

  1. Hα Doppler shifts in a tornado in the solar corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmieder, B.; Mein, P.; Mein, N.; Levens, P. J.; Labrosse, N.; Ofman, L.

    2017-01-01

    Context. High resolution movies in 193 Å from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) show apparent rotation in the leg of a prominence observed during a coordinated campaign. Such structures are commonly referred to as tornadoes. Time-distance intensity diagrams of the AIA data show the existence of oscillations suggesting that the structure is rotating. Aims: The aim of this paper is to understand if the cool plasma at chromospheric temperatures inside the tornado is rotating around its central axis. Methods: The tornado was also observed in Hα with a cadence of 30 s by the MSDP spectrograph, operating at the Solar Tower in Meudon. The MSDP provides sequences of simultaneous spectra in a 2D field of view from which a cube of Doppler velocity maps is retrieved. Results: The Hα Doppler maps show a pattern with alternatively blueshifted and redshifted areas of 5 to 10'' wide. Over time the blueshifted areas become redshifted and vice versa, with a quasi-periodicity of 40 to 60 min. Weaker amplitude oscillations with periods of 4 to 6 min are superimposed onto these large period oscillations. Conclusions: The Doppler pattern observed in Hα cannot be interpreted as rotation of the cool plasma inside the tornado. The Hα velocity observations give strong constraints on the possible interpretations of the AIA tornado.

  2. Mortality from a tornado outbreak, Alabama, April 27, 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Cindy H; Schnall, Amy H; Mertzlufft, Caitlin E; Noe, Rebecca S; Wolkin, Amy F; Spears, Jeanne; Casey-Lockyer, Mary; Vagi, Sara J

    2013-08-01

    We describe the demographics of the decedents from the tornado outbreak in Alabama on April 27, 2011; examine the circumstances of death surrounding these fatalities; and identify measures to prevent future tornado-related fatalities. We collected information about the decedents from death certificates, disaster-related mortality surveillance, and interview data collected by American Red Cross volunteers from the decedent's families. We describe demographic characteristics, circumstances and causes of death, and sheltering behaviors before death. Of the 247 fatalities, females and older adults were at highest risk for tornado-related deaths. Most deaths were directly related to the tornadoes, on scene, and trauma-related. The majority of the deceased were indoors in single-family homes. Word of mouth was the most common warning mechanism. This tornado event was the third deadliest in recent US history. Our findings support the need for local community shelters, enhanced messaging to inform the public of shelter locations, and encouragement of word-of-mouth warnings and personal and family preparedness planning, with a special focus on assisting vulnerable individuals in taking shelter.

  3. Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Tornado Warning Polygons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindell, M. K.; Huang, S. K.; Wei, H. L.; Samuelson, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    To provide people with more specific information about tornado threats, the National Weather Service has replaced its county-wide warnings with smaller warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area. However, tornado warning polygons do not have a standardized definition regarding tornado strike probabilities (ps) so it is unclear how warning recipients interpret them. To better understand this issue, 155 participants responded to 15 hypothetical warning polygons. After viewing each polygon, they rated the likelihood of a tornado striking their location and the likelihood that they would take nine different response actions ranging from continuing normal activities to getting in a car and driving somewhere safer. The results showed participants inferred that the ps was highest at the polygon's centroid, lower just inside the edges of the polygon, still lower (but not zero) just outside the edges of the polygon, and lowest in locations beyond that. Moreover, higher ps values were associated with lower expectations of continuing normal activities and higher expectations of seeking information from social sources (but not environmental cues) and higher expectations of seeking shelter (but not evacuating in their cars). These results indicate that most people make some errors in their ps judgments but are likely to respond appropriately to the ps they infer from the warning polygons. Overall, the findings from this study and other research can help meteorologists to better understand how people interpret the uncertainty associated with warning polygons and, thus, improve tornado warning systems.

  4. Hurricane Impacts on Small Island Communities: Case study of Hurricane Matthew on Great Exuma, The Bahamas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan Sealey, Kathleen; Bowleg, John

    2017-04-01

    Great Exuma has been a UNESCO Eco-hydrology Project Site with a focus on coastal restoration and flood management. Great Exuma and its largest settlement, George Town, support a population of just over 8.000 people on an island dominated by extensive coastal wetlands. The Victoria Pond Eco-Hydrology project restored flow and drainage to highly-altered coastal wetlands to reduce flooding of the built environment as well as regain ecological function. The project was designed to show the value of a protected wetland and coastal environment within a populated settlement; demonstrating that people can live alongside mangroves and value "green" infrastructure for flood protection. The restoration project was initiated after severe storm flooding in 2007 with Tropical Storm Noel. In 2016, the passing of Hurricane Matthew had unprecedented impacts on the coastal communities of Great Exuma, challenging past practices in restoration and flood prevention. This talk reviews the loss of natural capital (for example, fish populations, mangroves, salt water inundation) from Hurricane Matthew based on a rapid response survey of Great Exuma. The surprisingly find was the impact of storm surge on low-lying areas used primarily for personal farms and small-scale agriculture. Although women made up the overwhelming majority of people who attended Coastal Restoration workshops, women were most adversely impacted by the recent hurricane flooding with the loss of their small low-lying farms and gardens. Although increasing culverts in mangrove creeks in two areas did reduce building flood damage, the low-lying areas adjacent to mangroves, mostly ephemeral freshwater wetlands, were inundated with saltwater, and seasonal crops in these areas were destroyed. These ephemeral wetlands were designed as part of the wetland flooding system, it was not known how important these small areas were to artisanal farming on Great Exuma. The size and scope of Hurricane Matthew passing through the

  5. Quantifying human mobility perturbation and resilience in Hurricane Sandy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qi; Taylor, John E

    2014-01-01

    Human mobility is influenced by environmental change and natural disasters. Researchers have used trip distance distribution, radius of gyration of movements, and individuals' visited locations to understand and capture human mobility patterns and trajectories. However, our knowledge of human movements during natural disasters is limited owing to both a lack of empirical data and the low precision of available data. Here, we studied human mobility using high-resolution movement data from individuals in New York City during and for several days after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. We found the human movements followed truncated power-law distributions during and after Hurricane Sandy, although the β value was noticeably larger during the first 24 hours after the storm struck. Also, we examined two parameters: the center of mass and the radius of gyration of each individual's movements. We found that their values during perturbation states and steady states are highly correlated, suggesting human mobility data obtained in steady states can possibly predict the perturbation state. Our results demonstrate that human movement trajectories experienced significant perturbations during hurricanes, but also exhibited high resilience. We expect the study will stimulate future research on the perturbation and inherent resilience of human mobility under the influence of hurricanes. For example, mobility patterns in coastal urban areas could be examined as hurricanes approach, gain or dissipate in strength, and as the path of the storm changes. Understanding nuances of human mobility under the influence of such disasters will enable more effective evacuation, emergency response planning and development of strategies and policies to reduce fatality, injury, and economic loss.

  6. Quantifying human mobility perturbation and resilience in Hurricane Sandy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Wang

    Full Text Available Human mobility is influenced by environmental change and natural disasters. Researchers have used trip distance distribution, radius of gyration of movements, and individuals' visited locations to understand and capture human mobility patterns and trajectories. However, our knowledge of human movements during natural disasters is limited owing to both a lack of empirical data and the low precision of available data. Here, we studied human mobility using high-resolution movement data from individuals in New York City during and for several days after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. We found the human movements followed truncated power-law distributions during and after Hurricane Sandy, although the β value was noticeably larger during the first 24 hours after the storm struck. Also, we examined two parameters: the center of mass and the radius of gyration of each individual's movements. We found that their values during perturbation states and steady states are highly correlated, suggesting human mobility data obtained in steady states can possibly predict the perturbation state. Our results demonstrate that human movement trajectories experienced significant perturbations during hurricanes, but also exhibited high resilience. We expect the study will stimulate future research on the perturbation and inherent resilience of human mobility under the influence of hurricanes. For example, mobility patterns in coastal urban areas could be examined as hurricanes approach, gain or dissipate in strength, and as the path of the storm changes. Understanding nuances of human mobility under the influence of such disasters will enable more effective evacuation, emergency response planning and development of strategies and policies to reduce fatality, injury, and economic loss.

  7. Hurricane Sandy science plan: coastal topographic and bathymetric data to support hurricane impact assessment and response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stronko, Jakob M.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry • Impacts to coastal beaches and barriers • Impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology • Impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures • Impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife This fact sheet focuses on coastal topography and bathymetry. This fact sheet focuses on coastal topography and bathymetry.

  8. Nova Scotia Power response to Hurricane Juan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-10-01

    Hurricane Juan hit the Halifax Regional Municipality on September 28, 2003, creating the largest outage in Nova Scotia Power's history. This detailed report documents the extensive damage that Hurricane Juan caused to the power transmission and distribution system in Nova Scotia. It also reviews the massive power restoration effort, with reference to numerous interviews, computer records and data logs which offer a wide range of observations, statistics and insights into the preparation and performance of Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) and the efforts of other key organizations following the storm. NSPI organized a recovery effort that matched the intensity of the hurricane. A fire in the Scotia Square Office Tower caused the evacuation of the company's call centre. The Tufts Cove station in Dartmouth, which generates 400 megawatts of power, was forced to shut down. Excess electricity was moved into New Brunswick and other jurisdictions to maintain system stability. The main priority was to restore customers back to service. Within 5 days of the hurricane, 95 per cent of those who lost power had service restored. Hurricane Juan caused the most damage to the transmission and distribution system in NSPI's history. Three out of five high capacity transmission lines were put out of service. Three 120-foot high transmission towers fell, and 17 main transmission lines were damaged and put out of service. Forty-five major substations were affected and 145 distribution feeders were damaged or tripped off, including 106 in the Halifax Regional Municipality. Large portions of 4,500 kilometres of local distribution lines in the Halifax Regional Municipality were damaged, including thousands of kilometers across the Northeast. The power crew, consisting of 2,000 individuals from the region and neighbouring utilities in New Brunswick and Maine, worked for 15 consecutive days to replace 275 transformers, 760 power poles, and 125,000 metres of conductor wire. NSPI

  9. 7 CFR 1945.6 - Definitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ..., tornado, storm, flood, high water, wind-driven water, tidal wave, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption... States which, in the determination of the President, causes damage of sufficient severity and magnitude... hurricane, tornado, storm, flood, high water, wind-driven water, tidal wave, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic...

  10. EDs credit drills, community engagement with helping them manage casualties from tornado crises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-01

    Emergency department leaders at DCH Regional Medical Center in Tuscaloosa, AL, and Cullman Regional Medical Center in Cullman, AL, credit their regular practice drills with helping them deal with unprecedented demand when deadly tornadoes swept through the South this past April. Both facilities used the hospital instant command structure (HICS) to mobilize the resources needed to care for the surge in patients, and say the approach worked well in helping them meet the needs of their communities. However, the crises also showcased opportunities for improvement. The ED at DCH Regional Medical Center saw more than 600 patients on the day of the storm, a three-fold increase in the hospital's typical volume. CRMC treated 99 patients in the seven hours immediately following the storm when it usually treats 114 patients per day. In addition to a big surge in patients, both hospitals dealt with power outages that limited access to some services such as radiology. Triage proved particularly challenging at DCH Regional Medical Center, as patients flowed into the hospital from numerous access points. The hospital plans to assign coordinators to each area of the hospital to better manage the influx in the future. When reviewing emergency operations plans, Joint Commission reviewers often find deficiencies in hazard vulnerability analyses as well as the processes used to determine the emergency credentials of licensed independent practitioners.

  11. Shorelines_Oct2012_Sep2016.shp: Fire Island, NY pre and post storm shoreline data from October 2012 to September 2016

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Hurricane Sandy made U.S. landfall, coincident with astronomical high tides, near Atlantic City, New Jersey, on October 29, 2012. The storm, the largest on...

  12. Secondary Eyewall Formation in Two Idealized, Full-Physics Modeled Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-26

    28C. The upper boundary is closed, but includes a Rayleigh ‘‘ sponge ’’ layer exclusively in the stratosphere (uppermost six levels) to strongly damp...A. (2002), A cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991): Storm structure and eyewall buoyancy, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 1573–1592. Braun, S

  13. National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards—Gulf of Mexico update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Birchler, Justin; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Overbeck, Jacquelyn R.

    2016-01-01

    These data sets contain information on the probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) for each 1-km section of the Gulf of Mexico coast for category 1-5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respond to the direct landfall of category 1-5 hurricanes. Hurricane-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change: collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation. Data on dune morphology (dune crest and toe elevation) and hydrodynamics (storm surge, wave setup and runup) are also included in this data set. As new beach morphology observations and storm predictions become available, this analysis will be updated to describe how coastal vulnerability to storms will vary in the future. The data presented here include the dune morphology observations, as derived from lidar surveys. For further information regarding data collection and/or processing methods refer to USGS Open-File Report 2012–1084 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1084/).

  14. The Off-Season Operations of the Air Force Hurricane Office 1947-1948

    Science.gov (United States)

    1948-07-01

    report from the SS ABAKAKA, Storm George WAS next reported 500 miles east of Guadeloupe ft noon on 11 September by a reconncissanee plane. The...Mitohcll, C, H» - Hurricanes nf tho Atlantic? 4 Gulf Status 1379-1928, U. S. Department of Agriculture , "’oo.ther Bureau." Mr.o Doujall, G. H

  15. Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning; Kopp, Robert E.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

    2016-10-01

    Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ˜3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ˜4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ˜3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.

  16. Geomagnetic Storm Sudden Commencements

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Sudden Commencements (ssc) 1868 to present: STORM1 and STORM2 Lists: (Some text here is taken from the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy...

  17. ANALYSES OF THE ANNUAL FREQUENCY ANOMALIES OF TYPHOONS AND HURRICANES IN 1998

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李曾中; 程明虎; 杨振斌; 孙除荣; 薛建军

    2004-01-01

    In 1998, the annual frequency of typhoon (including tropical storms) genesis created a minimum value - 14, far lower than the minimum of 20 in 1950 over North-West Pacific, while in the Atlantic Ocean, the annual frequency of hurricanes (including the tropical storm) created a maximum value - 14, far higher than the average number - 9.2. In this paper, an analysis on the relationship between the generation of Typhoon, Hurricane and the Cross-Equatorial Flow was done by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 1979 - 1995. It is pointed out that the anomalies of the CEF over the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean is the main cause for the 1998 annual frequency anomalies of Typhoon and Hurricane, respectively.

  18. Evidence for delayed mortality in hurricane-damaged Jamaican staghorn corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowlton, Nancy; Lang, Judith C.; Christine Rooney, M.; Clifford, Patricia

    1981-11-01

    Severe tropical storms can cause widespread mortality in reef corals1,2. The Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis, although dependent on fragmentation for asexual propagation3-5, is particularly vulnerable to hurricane damage6,7. The most important agents of post-hurricane mortality are assumed to be high wave energy6 and change in salinity8, factors which typically soon diminish in intensity. We report here that there was substantial delayed tissue and colony death in A. cervicornis on a Jamaican reef damaged by Hurricane Alien. This previously undocumented degree of secondary mortality, sustained for 5 months and unrelated to emersion9, was over one order of magnitude more severe than that caused by the immediate effects of the storm. The elimination of >98% of the original survivors suggests potentially complex responses to catastrophes, involving disease10,11 and predation, which may explain the widely variable rates of reef recovery previously reported12-15.

  19. Comparative Analysis of Two Tornado Events over Northern Anhui Province%皖北两次龙卷过程对比分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王德育; 张学贤

    2012-01-01

    An analysis is made of two tornado events in Lingbi and Sixian counties, Anhui Province, by means of the conventional data, NCEP data, intensive observations, and Doppler radar data. The results show: the tornadoes occurred on the left of the low level jet at the intersection point of high-humidity center and vapor convergence center; before tornadoes appeared, the low level vertical wind shear was strong; the tornadoes occurred in the areas where the ground convergence was the strongest; there were clear vortex features and a mid-level cyclone in 10 to 20 minutes before tornado occurred; the Lingbi tornado appeared in the south of the storm with strong radar echoes under 3 km; the Sixian tornado appeared at the center of the banded radar echoes with strong splited and protruded echoes, and the mesocyclone top descended.%利用常规资料、NCEP再分析资料、高密度地面自动站资料、多普勒天气雷达资料,对安徽省灵璧县和泗县发生的两次龙卷过程进行对比分析.结果表明:龙卷风发生在低空急流的北端左侧以及高湿中心和水汽辐合中心的交汇处;龙卷风发生前低层垂直风切变强烈;龙卷风发生在地面辐合最强的地方,为判断龙卷风可能发生的区域提供了线索;龙卷风发生前10~20 min均有龙卷涡旋特征报警,同时有中等强度中气旋配合;灵璧龙卷风出现在母体风暴的南端,强回波在3 km以下;泗县龙卷风发生在带状回波的中部,中气旋由弱发展为中等强度后一个体扫龙卷出现,龙卷风发生时强回波有断裂和突前以及中气旋顶高下降的特征.

  20. Schools in Kansas with Tornado Protection. Shawnee Mission Public Schools--District No. 512.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Delbert B.

    Kansas and nearby Missouri are among the half-dozen states in America having the greatest frequency of tornadoes of any region in the world. This booklet describes a districtwide approach of designing and constructing tornado-resistant shelters as integrated parts of the school facilities. The design criteria for tornado protection also resulted…

  1. Conceptions of Tornado Wind Speed and Land Surface Interactions among Undergraduate Students in Nebraska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Den Broeke, Matthew S.; Arthurs, Leilani

    2015-01-01

    To ascertain novice conceptions of tornado wind speed and the influence of surface characteristics on tornado occurrence, 613 undergraduate students enrolled in introductory science courses at a large state university in Nebraska were surveyed. Our findings show that students lack understanding of the fundamental concepts that (1) tornadoes are…

  2. 76 FR 70971 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Societal Response to Tornado Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-16

    ... Response to Tornado Warnings AGENCY: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). ACTION: Notice... examine the societal impacts of tornado warnings, specifically the methods of receipt, response, and the... Following a particularly deadly year of tornadoes in the United States despite the existence of adequate...

  3. On the magnetism and dynamics of prominence legs hosting tornadoes

    CERN Document Server

    Gonzalez, M J Martinez; Arregui, I; Collados, M; Beck, C; Rodriguez, J de la Cruz

    2016-01-01

    Solar tornadoes are dark vertical filamentary structures observed in the extreme ultraviolet associated with prominence legs and filament barbs. Their true nature and relationship to prominences requires understanding their magnetic structure and dynamic properties. Recently, a controversy has arisen: is the magnetic field organized forming vertical, helical structures or is it dominantly horizontal? And concerning their dynamics, are tornadoes really rotating or is it just a visual illusion? Here, we analyze four consecutive spectropolarimetric scans of a prominence hosting tornadoes on its legs which help us shed some light on their magnetic and dynamical properties. We show that the magnetic field is very smooth in all the prominence, probably an intrinsic property of the coronal field. The prominence legs have vertical helical fields that show slow temporal variation probably related to the motion of the fibrils. Concerning the dynamics, we argue that 1) if rotation exists, it is intermittent, lasting no ...

  4. Tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (1950–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gayà

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a preliminary climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula. A database spanning 60 yr (1950–2009 has been developed on the basis of information collected from various sources such as weather reports, insurance companies, newspapers and damage surveys. This database has been subjected to a rigorous validation process, and the climatology describes its main features: timing, spatial pattern, and trends in the tornado and waterspout distribution. Results show the highest concentration of tornadoes from August to October, the highest density in the heavily populated coastal areas and a growing positive trend that is likely more closely linked to an increase in observation and perception rather than a real climatic trend.

  5. Dynamics of the chemical composition of rainwater throughout Hurricane Irene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Mullaugh

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Sequential sampling of rainwater from Hurricane Irene was carried out in Wilmington, NC, USA on 26 and 27 August 2011. Eleven samples were analyzed for pH, major ions (Cl−, NO3−, SO42−, Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, NH4+, dissolved organic carbon (DOC and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2. Hurricane Irene contributed 16% of the total rainwater and 18% of the total chloride wet deposition received in Wilmington NC during all of 2011. This work highlights the main physical factors influencing the chemical composition of tropical storm rainwater: wind speed, wind direction, back trajectory and vertical mixing, time of day and total rain volume. Samples collected early in the storm, when winds blew out of the east, contained dissolved components indicative of marine sources (salts from sea spray and low DOC. The sea-salt components in the samples had two maxima in concentration during the storm the first of which occurred before the volume of rain had sufficiently washed out sea salt from the atmosphere and the second when back trajectories showed large volumes of marine surface air were lifted. As the storm progressed and winds shifted to a westerly direction, the chemical composition of the rainwater became characteristic of terrestrial storms (high DOC and NH4+ and low sea salt. This work demonstrates that tropical storms are not only responsible for significant wet deposition of marine components to land, but terrestrial components can also become entrained in rainwater, which can then be delivered to coastal waters via wet deposition. This study also underscores why analysis of one composite sample can lead to an incomplete interpretation of the factors that influence the chemically divergent analytes in rainwater during extreme weather events.

  6. Hurricane Matthew Overwash Extents

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project exists to understand and predict storm impacts to our nation's coastlines. This geospatial dataset defines...

  7. Controlling a hurricane by altering its internal climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardhekar, D.

    2010-09-01

    Atmospheric hazards, like the fury of a hurricane, can be controlled by altering its internal climate. The hurricane controlling technique suggested is eco-friendly, compatible with hurricane size, has a sound scientific base and is practically possible. The key factor is a large scale dilution of the hurricane fuel, vapour, in the eye wall and spiral rain bands where condensation causing vapor volume reduction (a new concept which can be explained by Avogadro's law) and latent heat release drive the storm. This can be achieved by installing multiple storage tanks containing dry liquefied air on the onshore and offshore coastal regions and islands, preferably underground, in the usual path of a hurricane. Each storage tank is designed to hold and release dry liquefied air of around 100,000 tons. Satellite tracking of hurricanes can locate the eye wall and the spiral rain bands. The installed storage tanks coming under these areas will rapidly inject dry air in huge quantities thereby diluting the vapour content of the vapour-rich air in the eye wall and in the spiral rain bands. This will result in reduced natural input of vapour-rich air, reduced release of latent heat, reduced formation of the low pressure zone due to condensation and volume reduction of the vapor, expansion of the artificially introduced dry air as it goes up occupying a larger space with the diluted fuel, absorption of energy from the system by low temperature of the artificially introduced air. It will effect considerable condensation of the vapor near the sea surface thus further starving the hurricane of its fuel in its engine. Seeding materials, or microscopic dust as suggested by Dr. Daniel Rosenfeld in large quantities may also be introduced via the flow of the injected dry air in order to enhance the hurricane controlling ability. All the above factors are in favour of retarding the hurricane's wind speed and power. The sudden weakening of hurricane Lili was found to be partially caused

  8. Hurricane Rita Poster (September 22, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Rita poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Rita as a category-4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on September 22, 2005. Poster size is...

  9. Hurricane Katrina Poster (August 28, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Katrina poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-18 shows a very large Hurricane Katrina as a category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on August 28, 2005....

  10. Simulating Turbulent Wind Fields for Offshore Turbines in Hurricane-Prone Regions (Poster)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Y.; Damiani, R.; Musial, W.

    2014-04-01

    Extreme wind load cases are one of the most important external conditions in the design of offshore wind turbines in hurricane prone regions. Furthermore, in these areas, the increase in load with storm return-period is higher than in extra-tropical regions. However, current standards have limited information on the appropriate models to simulate wind loads from hurricanes. This study investigates turbulent wind models for load analysis of offshore wind turbines subjected to hurricane conditions. Suggested extreme wind models in IEC 61400-3 and API/ABS (a widely-used standard in oil and gas industry) are investigated. The present study further examines the wind turbine response subjected to Hurricane wind loads. Three-dimensional wind simulator, TurbSim, is modified to include the API wind model. Wind fields simulated using IEC and API wind models are used for an offshore wind turbine model established in FAST to calculate turbine loads and response.

  11. Correlating simulated surface marks with near-surface tornado structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Michael I.

    Tornadoes often leave behind patterns of debris deposition, or "surface marks", which provide a direct signature of their near surface winds. The intent of this thesis is to investigate what can be learned about near-surface tornado structure and intensity through the properties of surface marks generated by simulated, debris-laden tornadoes. Earlier work showed through numerical simulations that the tornado's structure and intensity is highly sensitive to properties of the near-surface flow and can change rapidly in time for some conditions. The strongest winds often occur within tens of meters of the surface where the threat to human life and property is highest, and factors such as massive debris loadings and asymmetry of the main vortex have proven to be critical complications in some regimes. However, studying this portion of the flow in the field is problematic; while Doppler radar provides the best tornado wind field measurements, it cannot probe below about 20 m, and interpretation of Doppler data requires assumptions about tornado symmetry, steadiness in time, and correlation between scatterer and air velocities that are more uncertain near the surface. As early as 1967, Fujita proposed estimating tornado wind speeds from analysis of aerial photography and ground documentation of surface marks. A handful of studies followed but were limited by difficulties in interpreting physical origins of the marks, and little scientific attention has been paid to them since. Here, Fujita's original idea is revisited in the context of three-dimensional, large-eddy simulations of tornadoes with fully-coupled debris. In this thesis, the origins of the most prominent simulated marks are determined and compared with historical interpretations of real marks. The earlier hypothesis that cycloidal surface marks were directly correlated with the paths of individual vortices (either the main vortex or its secondary vortices, when present) is unsupported by the simulation results

  12. Longitudinal Impact of Hurricane Sandy Exposure on Mental Health Symptoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca M. Schwartz

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy hit the eastern coast of the United States in October 2012, causing billions of dollars in damage and acute physical and mental health problems. The long-term mental health consequences of the storm and their predictors have not been studied. New York City and Long Island residents completed questionnaires regarding their initial Hurricane Sandy exposure and mental health symptoms at baseline and 1 year later (N = 130. There were statistically significant decreases in anxiety scores (mean difference = −0.33, p < 0.01 and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD scores (mean difference = −1.98, p = 0.001 between baseline and follow-up. Experiencing a combination of personal and property damage was positively associated with long-term PTSD symptoms (ORadj 1.2, 95% CI [1.1–1.4] but not with anxiety or depression. Having anxiety, depression, or PTSD at baseline was a significant predictor of persistent anxiety (ORadj 2.8 95% CI [1.1–6.8], depression (ORadj 7.4 95% CI [2.3–24.1 and PTSD (ORadj 4.1 95% CI [1.1–14.6] at follow-up. Exposure to Hurricane Sandy has an impact on PTSD symptoms that persists over time. Given the likelihood of more frequent and intense hurricanes due to climate change, future hurricane recovery efforts must consider the long-term effects of hurricane exposure on mental health, especially on PTSD, when providing appropriate assistance and treatment.

  13. Simulation of hurricane response to suppression of warm rain by sub-micron aerosols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Rosenfeld

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The feasibility of hurricane modification was investigated for hurricane Katrina using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF. The possible impact of seeding of clouds with submicron cloud condensation nuclei (CCN on hurricane structure and intensity as measured by nearly halving of the area covered by hurricane force winds was simulated by "turning–off" warm rain formation in the clouds at Katrina's periphery (where wind speeds were less than 22 m s−1. This simplification of the simulation of aerosol effects is aimed at evaluating the largest possible response. This resulted in the weakening of the hurricane surface winds compared to the "non-seeded" simulated storm during the first 24 h within the entire tropical cyclone (TC area compared to a control simulation without warm rain suppression. Later, the seeding-induced evaporative cooling at the TC periphery led to a shrinking of the eye and hence to some increase in the wind within the small central area of the TC. Yet, the overall strength of the hurricane, as defined by the area covered by hurricane force winds, decreased in response to the suppressed warm rain at the periphery, as measured by a 25% reduction in the radius of hurricane force winds. In a simulation with warm rain suppression throughout the hurricane, the radius of the hurricane force winds was reduced by more than 42%, and although the diameter of the eye shrunk even further the maximum winds weakened. This shows that the main mechanism by which suppressing warm rain weakens the TC is the low level evaporative cooling of the un-precipitated cloud drops and the added cooling due to melting of precipitation that falls from above.

  14. Applications of Earth Remote Sensing for Identifying Tornado and Severe Weather Damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burks, J. E.; Molthan, A.; Schultz, L. A.; McGrath, K.; Bell, J. R.; Cole, T.; Angle, K.

    2015-12-01

    In 2014, collaborations between the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, the National Weather Service (NWS), and the USGS led to the incorporation of Earth remote sensing imagery within the NOAA/NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT). The DAT is a smartphone, tablet, and web-based application that allows NWS meteorologists to acquire, quality control, and manage various storm damage indicators following a severe weather event, such as a tornado, occurrence of widespread damaging winds, or significant hail. Earth remote sensing supports the damage assessment process by providing a broad overview of how various acquired damage indicators relate to scarring visible from space, ranging from high spatial resolution commercial imagery (~1-4m) acquired via USGS and in collaboration with other federal and private sector partners, to moderate resolution imaging from NASA sensors (~15-30m) such as those aboard Landsat 7 and 8 and Terra's ASTER, to lower resolution but routine imaging from NASA's Terra and Aqua MODIS, or the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument. In several cases, the acquisition and delivery of imagery in the days after a severe weather event has proven helpful in confirming or in some cases adjusting the preliminary damage track acquired during a ground survey. For example, limited road networks and access to private property may make it difficult to observe the entire length of a tornado track, while satellite imagery can fill in observation gaps to complete a more detailed damage track assessment. This presentation will highlight successful applications of Earth remote sensing for the improvement of damage surveys, discuss remaining challenges, and provide direction on future efforts that will improve the delivery of remote sensing data and use through new automation processes and training opportunities.

  15. Probabilistic Storm Surge Hazard Assessment in Martinique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Sansorgne, Eliot; Roger, Jean; Zahibo, Narcisse; Roquelaure, Stevie

    2013-04-01

    Located at the center of the Lesser Antilles, Martinique is under the threat of hurricanes formed over the warm tropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. These events can be extremely costly in terms of human, property, and economic losses. Storm surge hazard studies are hence required to provide guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers. A few studies have been conducted so far in the French Lesser Antilles, but they mainly rely on scarce historical data of extreme sea levels or numerical models with coarse resolutions. Recent progress in statistical techniques for generating large number of synthetic hurricanes as well as availability of high-resolution topographic and bathymetric data (LIDAR) and improved numerical models enables us today to conduct storm surge hazard assessment studies with much more accuracy. Here we present a methodology to assess cyclonic surge hazard in Martinique both at regional and local scales. We first simulate the storm surges that would be induced by a large set of potential events generated by the statistical/deterministic models of Emanuel et al. [2006]. We use the ADCIRC-SWAN coupled models (Dietrich et al 2012) to simulate inundation inland with grid resolutions of up to 50-100m in the coastal area for the whole island.These models are validated against observations during past events such as hurricane Dean in 2007. The outputs can then be used in some specific sites to force higher resolution models for crisis management and local risk assessment studies. This work is supported by the INTERREG IV « Caribbean » program TSUNAHOULE.

  16. Structural and Environmental Characteristics of Extratropical Cyclones that Cause Tornado Outbreaks in the Warm Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tochimoto, Eigo; Niino, Hiroshi

    2016-04-01

    The differences in structural and environmental characteristics of extratropical cyclones (hereafter, ECs) that cause tornado outbreaks and those that do not were examined through composite analyses of the newly-released Japanese reanalysis data (JRA-55) and idealized numerical experiments. ECs that developed in the United States in April and May between 1995 and 2012 are categorized into two groups: ECs accompanied by 15 or more tornadoes (hereafter, outbreak cyclones (OCs)) and ECs accompanied by 5 or less tornadoes (non-outbreak cyclones (NOCs)). 55 OCs and 41 NOCs that are of similar strength as OCs are selected in this study. The composite analyses show significant differences in convective environmental parameters between OCs and NOCs. For OCs, convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative environmental helicity (SREH) are larger and the areas in which these parameters have significant values are wider in the warm sector. The larger CAPE in OCs is due to larger amount of low-level water vapor, while the larger SREH in OCs due to stronger southerly wind at low levels. A piecewise potential vorticity (PV) diagnostics (Davis and Emanuel, 1991) indicates that low- to mid-level PV anomalies mainly contribute to the difference in the low-level winds between OCs and NOCs. On the other hand, the low-level winds associated with upper-level PV anomalies are not the major contributor to the difference. The results of the idealized numerical experiments for OCs and NOCs (hereafter, referred to as OC-CTL and NOC-CTL, respectively) using WRF ver. 3.4 show that the characteristics of the low-level wind fields and SREH distributions for the simulated ECs in OC-CTL and NOC-CTL are similar to those for OCs and NOCs, respectively. In OC-CTL, SREH and low-level winds in the east-southeast region of the EC center is larger than those in NOC-CTL, respectively. It is suggested that these differences are due to the structures of jetstream. The structure of

  17. Diabetes Care Provided to Children Displaced by Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quast, Troy; Mortensen, Karoline

    2015-10-01

    Although previous studies have examined the impact of Hurricane Katrina on adults with diabetes, less is known about the effects on children with diabetes and on those displaced by the storm. We analyzed individual-level enrollment and utilization data of children with diabetes who were displaced from Louisiana and were enrolled in the Texas Medicaid Hurricane Katrina emergency waiver (TexKat). We compared the utilization and outcomes of children displaced from Louisiana with those of children who lived in areas less affected by Hurricane Katrina. Data from both before and after the storm were used to calculate difference-in-difference estimates of the effects of displacement on the children. We analyzed 4 diabetes management procedures (glycated hemoglobin [HbA1C] tests, eye exams, microalbumin tests, and thyroid tests) and a complication from poor diabetes management (diabetic ketoacidosis). Children enrolled in the waiver generally did not experience a decrease in care relative to the control group while the waiver program was in effect. After the waiver ended, however, we observed a drop in care and an increase in complications relative to the control group. Although the waiver appeared to have been largely successful immediately following Katrina, future waivers may be improved by ensuring that enrollees continue to receive care after the waivers expire.

  18. Gaussian and Lognormal Models of Hurricane Gust Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merceret, Frank

    2009-01-01

    A document describes a tool that predicts the likelihood of land-falling tropical storms and hurricanes exceeding specified peak speeds, given the mean wind speed at various heights of up to 500 feet (150 meters) above ground level. Empirical models to calculate mean and standard deviation of the gust factor as a function of height and mean wind speed were developed in Excel based on data from previous hurricanes. Separate models were developed for Gaussian and offset lognormal distributions for the gust factor. Rather than forecasting a single, specific peak wind speed, this tool provides a probability of exceeding a specified value. This probability is provided as a function of height, allowing it to be applied at a height appropriate for tall structures. The user inputs the mean wind speed, height, and operational threshold. The tool produces the probability from each model that the given threshold will be exceeded. This application does have its limits. They were tested only in tropical storm conditions associated with the periphery of hurricanes. Winds of similar speed produced by non-tropical system may have different turbulence dynamics and stability, which may change those winds statistical characteristics. These models were developed along the Central Florida seacoast, and their results may not accurately extrapolate to inland areas, or even to coastal sites that are different from those used to build the models. Although this tool cannot be generalized for use in different environments, its methodology could be applied to those locations to develop a similar tool tuned to local conditions.

  19. Effect of Hurricane Andrew on the Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station from August 20--30, 1992. [Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hebdon, F.J. [Institute of Nuclear Power Operations, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    1993-03-01

    On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew, a Category 4 hurricane, struck the Turkey Point Electrical Generating Station with sustained winds of 145 mph (233 km/h). This is the report of the team that the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) jointly sponsored (1) to review the damage that the hurricane caused the nuclear units and the utility`s actions to prepare for the storm and recover from it, and (2) to compile lessons that might benefit other nuclear reactor facilities.

  20. Physically and sexually violent experiences of reproductive-aged women displaced by Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picardo, Carla W; Burton, Shirley; Naponick, John

    2010-01-01

    Measure the frequency of physical and sexual abuse in a sample of reproductive aged women displaced by Hurricane Katrina, and compare those experiences to the year before Hurricane Katrina. Sixty-six English-speaking women aged 18-49 years residing in Louisiana Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) housing were screened for physical and sexual abuse seven to nine months after Hurricane Katrina, using modified 30x7 cluster sampling methodology. Twenty-three percent (95% confidence interval [CI], 14, 34%) of women reported being hit or verbally threatened since Hurricane Katrina. Abuse had increased for 33% (95% CI, 13, 63%) and decreased for 13% (95% CI, 4, 37%) of women. Twenty percent (95% CI, 6, 51%) of abused women were with a new partner, while 13% (95% CI, 4, 39%) reported new abuse with the same partner. Four women reported sexual abuse since Hurricane Katrina. Compared to before the storm, the frequency of sexual abuse was the same for two women, and one reported new abuse with the same partner. Physical abuse was not uncommon among displaced women following Hurricane Katrina. Increasing and new abuse were the most commonly reported experiences. Violence against women should not be overlooked as a continued, and perhaps escalating, occurrence requiring attention following displacement after disasters of such magnitude as Hurricane Katrina.

  1. Numerical simulation of a low-lying barrier island's morphological response to Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindemer, C.A.; Plant, N.G.; Puleo, J.A.; Thompson, D.M.; Wamsley, T.V.

    2010-01-01

    Tropical cyclones that enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico generate storm surge and large waves that impact low-lying coastlines along the Gulf Coast. The Chandeleur Islands, located 161. km east of New Orleans, Louisiana, have endured numerous hurricanes that have passed nearby. Hurricane Katrina (landfall near Waveland MS, 29 Aug 2005) caused dramatic changes to the island elevation and shape. In this paper the predictability of hurricane-induced barrier island erosion and accretion is evaluated using a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model known as XBeach. Pre- and post-storm island topography was surveyed with an airborne lidar system. Numerical simulations utilized realistic surge and wave conditions determined from larger-scale hydrodynamic models. Simulations included model sensitivity tests with varying grid size and temporal resolutions. Model-predicted bathymetry/topography and post-storm survey data both showed similar patterns of island erosion, such as increased dissection by channels. However, the model under predicted the magnitude of erosion. Potential causes for under prediction include (1) errors in the initial conditions (the initial bathymetry/topography was measured three years prior to Katrina), (2) errors in the forcing conditions (a result of our omission of storms prior to Katrina and/or errors in Katrina storm conditions), and/or (3) physical processes that were omitted from the model (e.g., inclusion of sediment variations and bio-physical processes). ?? 2010.

  2. State of the Climate Monthly Overview - Hurricanes & Tropical Storms

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  3. Consumer's Guide to Food Safety: Severe Storms and Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... considerable. OTHER Casseroles — pasta, rice based Refreeze Discard Flour, cornmeal, nuts Refreeze Refreeze Breakfast items — waffles, pancakes, bagels Refreeze Refreeze Frozen meal, entree, specialty items (pizza, sausage and biscuit, meat pie, convenience foods) Refreeze Discard Got Food Safety ...

  4. Mental health outcomes at the Jersey Shore after Hurricane Sandy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boscarino, Joseph A; Hoffman, Stuart N; Kirchner, H Lester; Erlich, Porat M; Adams, Richard E; Figley, Charles R; Solhkhah, Ramon

    2013-01-01

    On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy made landfall in the most densely populated region in the US. In New Jersey, thousands of families were made homeless and entire communities were destroyed in the worst disaster in the history of the state. The economic impact of Sandy was huge, comparable to Hurricane Katrina. The areas that sustained the most damage were the small- to medium-sized beach communities along New Jersey's Atlantic coastline. Six months following the hurricane, we conducted a random telephone survey of 200 adults residing in 18 beach communities located in Monmouth County. We found that 14.5% (95% CI = 9.9-20.2) of these residents screened positive for PTSD and 6.0% (95% CI = 3.1-10.2) met criteria for major depression. Altogether 13.5% (95% CI = 9.1-19.0) received mental health counseling and 20.5% (95% CI = 15.1-26.8) sought some type of mental health support in person or online, rates similar to those reported in New York after the World Trade Center disaster In multivariate analyses, the best predictors of mental health status and service use were having high hurricane exposure levels, having physical health limitations, and having environmental health concerns. Research is needed to assess the mental health status and service use of Jersey Shore residents over time, to evaluate environmental health concerns, and to better understand the storm's impact among those with physical health limitations.

  5. Hurricane Sandy Washover Deposits on Southern Long Beach Island, NJ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, J. M.; Richmond, B. M.; Kane, H. H.; Lunghino, B.

    2015-12-01

    Hurricane Sandy washover deposits were investigated at Forsyth National Wildlife Refuge (FNWR) on Southern Long Beach Island, New Jersey in order to map deposit thickness and characterize the sedimentary deposits. FNWR was chosen as a field area because there has been relatively little anthropogenic shoreline modification since washover deposition from Hurricane Sandy. Sediment, elevation, and geophysical data were collected during the April 2015 field campaign, approximately two and a half years after the storm. Sediment deposit data included trenches, stratigraphic descriptions, bulk sediment samples, push cores, Russian cores, and photos. Computed tomography (CT) scanning was conducted on push cores in order to acquire high resolution imaging of density, grain size, and sedimentary structure. Profiles of washover elevation were measured using Differential GPS with Real Time Kinematic processing. Ground Penetrating Radar data was collected to image the depth of the deposit and identify sedimentary structures. These data sets are compared to pre- and post -Sandy lidar surveys in order to determine post-Sandy modification in the two and a half years following the hurricane. We compare sediment thickness and sedimentary characteristics to hurricane Sandy deposits elsewhere along the U.S. eastern seaboard and to tsunami deposits.

  6. A simple model for the spatially-variable coastal response to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, H.F.; Sallenger, A.H.; Holman, R.A.; Howd, P.A.

    2007-01-01

    The vulnerability of a beach to extreme coastal change during a hurricane can be estimated by comparing the relative elevations of storm-induced water levels to those of the dune or berm. A simple model that defines the coastal response based on these elevations was used to hindcast the potential impact regime along a 50-km stretch of the North Carolina coast to the landfalls of Hurricane Bonnie on August 27, 1998, and Hurricane Floyd on September 16, 1999. Maximum total water levels at the shoreline were calculated as the sum of modeled storm surge, astronomical tide, and wave runup, estimated from offshore wave conditions and the local beach slope using an empirical parameterization. Storm surge and wave runup each accounted for ∼ 48% of the signal (the remaining 4% is attributed to astronomical tides), indicating that wave-driven process are a significant contributor to hurricane-induced water levels. Expected water levels and lidar-derived measures of pre-storm dune and berm elevation were used to predict the spatially-varying storm-impact regime: swash, collision, or overwash. Predictions were compared to the observed response quantified using a lidar topography survey collected following hurricane landfall. The storm-averaged mean accuracy of the model in predicting the observed impact regime was 55.4%, a significant improvement over the 33.3% accuracy associated with random chance. Model sensitivity varied between regimes and was highest within the overwash regime where the accuracies were 84.2% and 89.7% for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd, respectively. The model not only allows for prediction of the general coastal response to storms, but also provides a framework for examining the longshore-variable magnitudes of observed coastal change. For Hurricane Bonnie, shoreline and beach volume changes within locations that experienced overwash or dune erosion were two times greater than locations where wave runup was confined to the foreshore (swash regime

  7. CyberStorm III

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luiijf, H.A.M.; et al

    2010-01-01

    Projectteam Cyber Storm III - De Verenigde Staten organiseerden de afgelopen jaren een reeks grootschalige ICT-crisisoefeningen met de naam Cyber Storm. Cyber Storm III is de derde oefening in de reeks. Het scenario van Cyber Storm III staat in het teken van grootschalige ICT-verstoringen, waarbij n

  8. Tornado outbreak variability follows Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K; Cohen, Joel E

    2016-02-29

    Tornadoes cause loss of life and damage to property each year in the United States and around the world. The largest impacts come from 'outbreaks' consisting of multiple tornadoes closely spaced in time. Here we find an upward trend in the annual mean number of tornadoes per US tornado outbreak for the period 1954-2014. Moreover, the variance of this quantity is increasing more than four times as fast as the mean. The mean and variance of the number of tornadoes per outbreak vary according to Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling (TL), with parameters that are consistent with multiplicative growth. Tornado-related atmospheric proxies show similar power-law scaling and multiplicative growth. Path-length-integrated tornado outbreak intensity also follows TL, but with parameters consistent with sampling variability. The observed TL power-law scaling of outbreak severity means that extreme outbreaks are more frequent than would be expected if mean and variance were independent or linearly related.

  9. Carbon Monoxide (CO) Poisoning Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir When power outages occur after severe weather (such as winter storms, hurricanes or tornadoes), using alternative sources of power can cause carbon monoxide (CO) to build up in a ...

  10. Electrical Characteristics of Simulated Tornadoes and Dust Devils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Michael I.; Farrell, William M.; Barth, E. L.; Lewellen, W. S.; Perlongo, N. J.; Jackson, T. L.

    2012-01-01

    It is well known that tornadoes and dust devils have the ability to accumulate significant, visible clouds of debris. Collisions between sand-like debris species produce different electric charges on different types of grains, which convect along different trajectories around the vortex. Thus, significant charge separations and electric currents are possible, which as the vortex fluctuates over time are thought to produce ULF radiation signatures that have been measured in the field. These electric and magnetic fields may contain valuable information about tornado structure and genesis, and may be critical in driving electrochemical processes within dust devils on Mars. In the present work, existing large eddy simulations of debris-laden tornadoes performed at West Virginia University are coupled with a new debris-charging and advection code developed at Goddard Space Flight Center to investigate the detailed (meter-resolution) fluid-dynamic origins of electromagnetic fields within terrestrial vortices. First results are presented, including simulations of the electric and magnetic fields that would be observed by a near-surface, instrument-laden probe during a direct encounter with a tornado.

  11. Prominence and tornado dynamics observed with IRIS and THEMIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmieder, Brigitte; Levens, Peter; Labrosse, Nicolas; Mein, Pierre; Lopez Ariste, Arturo; Zapior, Maciek

    2017-08-01

    Several prominences were observed during campaigns in September 2013 and July 2014 with the IRIS spectrometer and the vector magnetograph THEMIS (Tenerife). SDO/AIA and IRIS provided images and spectra of prominences and tornadoes corresponding to different physical conditions of the transition region between the cool plasma and the corona. The vector magnetic field was derived from THEMIS observations by using the He D3 depolarisation due to the magnetic field. The inversion code (PCA) takes into account the Hanle and Zeeman effects and allows us to compute the strength and the inclination of the magnetic field which is shown to be mostly horizontal in prominences as well as in tornadoes. Movies from SDO/AIA in 304 A and Hinode/SOT in Ca II show the highly dynamic nature of the fine structures. From spectra in Mg II and Si IV lines provided by IRIS and H-alpha observed by the Multi-channel Subtractive Double Pass (MSDP) spectrograph in the Meudon Solar Tower we derived the Doppler shifts of the fine structures and reconstructed the 3D structure of tornadoes. We conclude that the apparent rotation of AIA tornadoes is due to large-scale quasi-periodic oscillations of the plasma along more or less horizontal magnetic structures.

  12. Emotional Reactions of Rescue Workers Following a Tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCammon, Susan L.; And Others

    Rescue and medical workers may be at risk for negative emotional experience following intervention efforts in disaster situations. To examine this possibility, 120 rescue and hospital personnel responded to a survey of their emotional reactions and coping behaviors 3 months after a devastating tornado. Twenty-eight subjects had been involved in…

  13. The February 21, 1993 tornadoes of East Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fricke, K.E.; Kornegay, F.C. [Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1993-08-11

    A series of tornadoes struck the east Tennessee area on Sunday afternoon, February 21, 1993 around Knoxville, Lenoir City, and Oak Ridge causing millions of dollars worth of damage to both homes and businesses in the area, killing one, injuring a number of persons, and leaving a large area without power for many hours or even days due to damage to the local TVA transmission line network. One tornado touched down in the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation near the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant, continued through the Union Valley business district located just east of the plant, through the adjacent University of Tennessee Arboretum and then continued into the communities of Claxton and Powell. The path length of the tornado was approximately 13 miles. Damage to the Y-12 Plant was minimal, but the Union Valley business district was seriously damaged, including the Fusion Energy Design Center (FEDC) which houses a number of DOE related projects. The preliminary cost estimate of the damage to DOE facilities (both at Y-12 and at the FEDC) was around $520,000. This paper describes the local meteorological data, the tornado that struck near the Y-12 plant, the resulting damage both to the DOE facilities and to the surrounding communities, the plant emergency response and recovery activities, and the current hazard analyses being undertaken at the plant.

  14. Creativity...The Flowering Tornado, Art by Ginny Ruffner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Mark M.

    2003-01-01

    Presents background information on the artist Ginny Ruffner who was a "flameworker." Includes information on the exhibition entitled "Creativity: The Flowering Tornado, Art by Ginny Ruffner" and the accompanying art pop-up book. Provides photographs of some of her artwork. (CMK)

  15. Solar noise storms

    CERN Document Server

    Elgaroy, E O

    2013-01-01

    Solar Noise Storms examines the properties and features of solar noise storm phenomenon. The book also presents some theories that can be used to gain a better understanding of the phenomenon. The coverage of the text includes topics that cover the features and behavior of noise storms, such as the observable features of noise storms; the relationship between noise storms and the observable features on the sun; and ordered behavior of storm bursts in the time-frequency plane. The book also covers the spectrum, polarization, and directivity of noise storms. The text will be of great use to astr

  16. The 2016 North Atlantic hurricane season: A season of extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Jennifer M.; Roache, David R.

    2017-05-01

    The 2016 North Atlantic hurricane season had an early start with a rare and powerful storm for January impacting the Azores at hurricane force. Likewise, the end of season heralded Otto which was record breaking in location and intensity being a high-end Category 2 storm at landfall over southern central America in late November. We show that high precipitable water, positive relative vorticity, and low sea level pressure allowed for conducive conditions. During the season, few storms occurred in the main development region. While some environmental conditions were conducive for formation there (such as precipitable water, relative vorticity, and shear), the midlevel relative humidity was too low there for most of the season, presenting very dry conditions in that level of the atmosphere. We further find that the October peak in the accumulated cyclone energy was related to environmentally conducive conditions with positive relative humidity, precipitable water, relative humidity, and low values of sea level pressure. Overall 2016 was notable for a series of extremes, some rarely, and a few never before observed in the Atlantic basin, a potential harbinger of seasons to come in the face of ongoing global climate change.

  17. Probabilistic prediction of barrier-island response to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.

    2012-01-01

    Prediction of barrier-island response to hurricane attack is important for assessing the vulnerability of communities, infrastructure, habitat, and recreational assets to the impacts of storm surge, waves, and erosion. We have demonstrated that a conceptual model intended to make qualitative predictions of the type of beach response to storms (e.g., beach erosion, dune erosion, dune overwash, inundation) can be reformulated in a Bayesian network to make quantitative predictions of the morphologic response. In an application of this approach at Santa Rosa Island, FL, predicted dune-crest elevation changes in response to Hurricane Ivan explained about 20% to 30% of the observed variance. An extended Bayesian network based on the original conceptual model, which included dune elevations, storm surge, and swash, but with the addition of beach and dune widths as input variables, showed improved skill compared to the original model, explaining 70% of dune elevation change variance and about 60% of dune and shoreline position change variance. This probabilistic approach accurately represented prediction uncertainty (measured with the log likelihood ratio), and it outperformed the baseline prediction (i.e., the prior distribution based on the observations). Finally, sensitivity studies demonstrated that degrading the resolution of the Bayesian network or removing data from the calibration process reduced the skill of the predictions by 30% to 40%. The reduction in skill did not change conclusions regarding the relative importance of the input variables, and the extended model's skill always outperformed the original model.

  18. Hurricane Influences on Vegetation Community Change in Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steyer, Gregory D.; Cretini, Kari Foster; Piazza, Sarai C.; Sharp, Leigh A.; Snedden, Gregg A.; Sapkota, Sijan

    2010-01-01

    The impacts of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 on wetland vegetation were investigated in Louisiana coastal marshes. Vegetation cover, pore-water salinity, and nutrients data from 100 marsh sites covering the entire Louisiana coast were sampled for two consecutive growing seasons after the storms. A mixed-model nested ANOVA with Tukey's HSD test for post-ANOVA multiple comparisons was used to analyze the data. Significantly (p<0.05) lower vegetation cover was observed within brackish and fresh marshes in the west as compared to the east and central regions throughout 2006, but considerable increase in vegetation cover was noticed in fall 2007 data. Marshes in the west were stressed by prolonged saltwater logging and increased sulfide content. High salinity levels persisted throughout the study period for all marsh types, especially in the west. The marshes of coastal Louisiana are still recovering after the hurricanes; however, changes in the species composition have increased in these marshes.

  19. Number of warning information sources and decision making during tornadoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jianjun; Cong, Zhen; Liang, Daan

    2015-03-01

    Taking proper protective action upon receiving tornado warnings is critical to reducing casualties. With more warning information sources becoming available, how the number of such information sources affects decision making should be quantitatively investigated. To examine how the number of warning information sources affected individuals' decisions to take protective action during tornadoes. A telephone survey using random sampling was conducted in 2012 with residents in Tuscaloosa AL and Joplin MO, resulting in a working sample of 782 respondents. Both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (Enhanced Fujita Scale [EF]4 and EF5) in 2011. The analysis was conducted in 2013. Logistic regression analysis showed that relative to having only one warning information source, having two and three or more warning information sources significantly increased the odds of taking protective action in Joplin but not in Tuscaloosa; having three or more sources had a significantly stronger effect on taking protective action in Joplin than in Tuscaloosa. Having an emergency preparation plan in both cities and being white in Tuscaloosa significantly increased the odds of taking protective action, whereas being divorced in Joplin reduced these odds. Receiving warnings from more warning information sources might be more beneficial in places with less previous exposure to tornadoes and for populations with lower awareness of a potential tornado and higher probability of receiving no warnings. Emergency management agencies and public health officials should give priority to these places and populations when formulating disaster mitigation decisions and policies. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Millimeter-wave molecular line observations of the Tornado nebula

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sakai, D. [Department of Astronomy, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Oka, T.; Tanaka, K.; Matsumura, S.; Miura, K.; Takekawa, S., E-mail: sakai.daisuke@nao.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Institute of Science and Technology, Keio University, 3-14-1 Hiyoshi, Yokohama, Kanagawa 223-8522 (Japan)

    2014-08-10

    We report the results of millimeter-wave molecular line observations of the Tornado Nebula (G357.7-0.1), which is a bright radio source behind the Galactic center region. A 15' × 15' area was mapped in the J = 1-0 lines of CO, {sup 13}CO, and HCO{sup +} with the Nobeyama Radio Observatory 45 m telescope. The Very Large Array archival data of OH at 1720 MHz were also reanalyzed. We found two molecular clouds with separate velocities, V{sub LSR} = –14 km s{sup –1} and +5 km s{sup –1}. These clouds show rough spatial anti-correlation. Both clouds are associated with OH 1720 MHz emissions in the area overlapping with the Tornado Nebula. The spatial and velocity coincidence indicates violent interaction between the clouds and the Tornado Nebula. Modestly excited gas prefers the position of the Tornado 'head' in the –14 km s{sup –1} cloud, also suggesting the interaction. Virial analysis shows that the +5 km s{sup –1} cloud is more tightly bound by self-gravity than the –14 km s{sup –1} cloud. We propose a formation scenario for the Tornado Nebula; the +5 km s{sup –1} cloud collided into the –14 km s{sup –1} cloud, generating a high-density layer behind the shock front, which activates a putative compact object by Bondi-Hoyle-Lyttleton accretion to eject a pair of bipolar jets.

  1. Dynamics and Predictability of Hurricane Dolly (2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, J.; Zhang, F.; Weng, Y.

    2008-12-01

    Through several cloud-resolving simulations with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model, this study examines the dynamics and predictability of Hurricane Dolly (2008) with an emphasis on its initial development (around the time being declared as a tropical storm) and subsequent rapid intensification entering into the Gulf of Mexico. These WRF simulations include three that are directly initialized with the operational NCEP GFS analyses at 06, 12 and 18Z 20 July 2008, respectively (EXP06, EXP12, EXP18) and another the same as EXP06 except that the airborne Doppler velocity observations by a NOAA P3 aircraft during 12-15Z are assimilated with an ensemble-Kalman filter (ENKF06). Among the four experiments, only EXP06 fails to capture the rapid intensification and fails to develop the tropical storm into a mature hurricane. Preliminary comparison between the simulated fields of EXP06 and the GFS analysis at 12Z (e.g., IC of EXP12) indicates that large scale features favorable to the tropical cyclogenesis cannot be properly simulated in EXP06. The initial disturbance is rather weak positioned too far south-west that is far away from the primary convective. However, after the airborne radar data during 12-15Z are assimilated into the model, (from EXP06 into ENKF06), the ENKF06 simulation is greatly improved in that a well-organized warm-core vortex appears at the low level right after radar assimilation, which subsequently developed into a hurricane consistent with timing, track and intensity of observations. Interestingly, there are significant differences in the initial vortex position, structure and evolution among the three simulations (EXP12, EXP18, ENKF06) that all eventually develop a mature hurricane along the observed track (before landfall) with right timing after enters into the Gulf of Mexico. At 18Z 20 July, there is no apparent initial low-level cyclonic vortex in EXP12 and EXP18 (that is assimilated into ENKF06 due to radar observations

  2. How Hurricanes Get Their Names

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张梅荐

    2000-01-01

    The first people who gave names to hurricanes were those who knew them best the people of Puerto Rico. The small island of Puerto Rico is in the West Indies, off the coast of Florida. This is where all the hurricanes begin that strike the east coast of the United States.

  3. Vulnerability of Coastal Communities from Storm Surge and Flood Disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bathi, Jejal Reddy; Das, Himangshu S

    2016-02-19

    Disasters in the form of coastal storms and hurricanes can be very destructive. Preparing for anticipated effects of such disasters can help reduce the public health and economic burden. Identifying vulnerable population groups can help prioritize resources for the most needed communities. This paper presents a quantitative framework for vulnerability measurement that incorporates both socioeconomic and flood inundation vulnerability. The approach is demonstrated for three coastal communities in Mississippi with census tracts being the study unit. The vulnerability results are illustrated as thematic maps for easy usage by planners and emergency responders to assist in prioritizing their actions to vulnerable populations during storm surge and flood disasters.

  4. Probabilistic Storm Surge Hazard Assessment in the French West Indies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.; Arnaud, G.

    2016-12-01

    The French West Indies are prone to hurricanes formed over the warm tropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. These events can have great consequences in terms of human, property, and economic losses. Storm surge hazard assessment is therefore required to provide guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers. By combining statistical-deterministic approaches and wave-current coupled models, we assessed storm surge hazard in Guadeloupe and Martinique islands. We present here the methodology, the results, as well as the on-going work on the impact of climate change in the framework of the FEDER-funded project C3AF.

  5. Multi-Output Artificial Neural Network for Storm Surge Prediction in North Carolina

    CERN Document Server

    Bezuglov, Anton; Santiago, Reinaldo

    2016-01-01

    During hurricane seasons, emergency managers and other decision makers need accurate and `on-time' information on potential storm surge impacts. Fully dynamical computer models, such as the ADCIRC tide, storm surge, and wind-wave model take several hours to complete a forecast when configured at high spatial resolution. Additionally, statically meaningful ensembles of high-resolution models (needed for uncertainty estimation) cannot easily be computed in near real-time. This paper discusses an artificial neural network model for storm surge prediction in North Carolina. The network model provides fast, real-time storm surge estimates at coastal locations in North Carolina. The paper studies the performance of the neural network model vs. other models on synthetic and real hurricane data.

  6. 76 FR 63541 - Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-13

    ...-2010-0288] Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants AGENCY: Nuclear... Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants.'' This regulatory guide provides licensees and applicants with... hurricane and design-basis hurricane-generated missiles that a nuclear power plant should be designed...

  7. Hurricanes and coral bleaching linked to changes in coral recruitment in Tobago.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallela, J; Crabbe, M J C

    2009-10-01

    Knowledge of coral recruitment patterns helps us understand how reefs react following major disturbances and provides us with an early warning system for predicting future reef health problems. We have reconstructed and interpreted historical and modern-day recruitment patterns, using a combination of growth modelling and in situ recruitment experiments, in order to understand how hurricanes, storms and bleaching events have influenced coral recruitment on the Caribbean coastline of Tobago. Whilst Tobago does not lie within the main hurricane belt results indicate that regional hurricane events negatively impact coral recruitment patterns in the Southern Caribbean. In years following hurricanes, tropical storms and bleaching events, coral recruitment was reduced when compared to normal years (p=0.016). Following Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and the 2005-2006 bleaching event, coral recruitment was markedly limited with only 2% (n=6) of colonies estimated to have recruited during 2006 and 2007. Our experimental results indicate that despite multiple large-scale disturbances corals are still recruiting on Tobago's marginal reef systems, albeit in low numbers.

  8. Hurricane Activity and the Large-Scale Pattern of Spread of an Invasive Plant Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, Ganesh P.; Cronin, James T.

    2014-01-01

    Disturbances are a primary facilitator of the growth and spread of invasive species. However, the effects of large-scale disturbances, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, on the broad geographic patterns of invasive species growth and spread have not been investigated. We used historical aerial imagery to determine the growth rate of invasive Phragmites australis patches in wetlands along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These were relatively undisturbed wetlands where P. australis had room for unrestricted growth. Over the past several decades, invasive P. australis stands expanded in size by 6–35% per year. Based on tropical storm and hurricane activity over that same time period, we found that the frequency of hurricane-force winds explained 81% of the variation in P. australis growth over this broad geographic range. The expansion of P. australis stands was strongly and positively correlated with hurricane frequency. In light of the many climatic models that predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes over the next century, these results suggest a strong link between climate change and species invasion and a challenging future ahead for the management of invasive species. PMID:24878928

  9. Hurricane activity and the large-scale pattern of spread of an invasive plant species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, Ganesh P; Cronin, James T

    2014-01-01

    Disturbances are a primary facilitator of the growth and spread of invasive species. However, the effects of large-scale disturbances, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, on the broad geographic patterns of invasive species growth and spread have not been investigated. We used historical aerial imagery to determine the growth rate of invasive Phragmites australis patches in wetlands along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These were relatively undisturbed wetlands where P. australis had room for unrestricted growth. Over the past several decades, invasive P. australis stands expanded in size by 6-35% per year. Based on tropical storm and hurricane activity over that same time period, we found that the frequency of hurricane-force winds explained 81% of the variation in P. australis growth over this broad geographic range. The expansion of P. australis stands was strongly and positively correlated with hurricane frequency. In light of the many climatic models that predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes over the next century, these results suggest a strong link between climate change and species invasion and a challenging future ahead for the management of invasive species.

  10. Landscape analysis and pattern of hurricane impact and circulation on mangrove forests of the everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, T.W.; Krauss, K.W.; Wells, C.J.

    2009-01-01

    The Everglades ecosystem contains the largest contiguous tract of mangrove forest outside the tropics that were also coincidentally intersected by a major Category 5 hurricane. Airborne videography was flown to capture the landscape pattern and process of forest damage in relation to storm trajectory and circulation. Two aerial video transects, representing different topographic positions, were used to quantify forest damage from video frame analysis in relation to prevailing wind force, treefall direction, and forest height. A hurricane simulation model was applied to reconstruct wind fields corresponding to the ground location of each video frame and to correlate observed treefall and destruction patterns with wind speed and direction. Mangrove forests within the storm's eyepath and in the right-side (forewind) quadrants suffered whole or partial blowdowns, while left-side (backwind) sites south of the eyewall zone incurred moderate canopy reduction and defoliation. Sites along the coastal transect sustained substantially more storm damage than sites along the inland transect which may be attributed to differences in stand exposure and/or stature. Observed treefall directions were shown to be non-random and associated with hurricane trajectory and simulated forewind azimuths. Wide-area sampling using airborne videography provided an efficient adjunct to limited ground observations and improved our spatial understanding of how hurricanes imprint landscape-scale patterns of disturbance. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

  11. Numerical Evaluation of Storm Surge Indices for Public Advisory Purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bass, B.; Bedient, P. B.; Dawson, C.; Proft, J.

    2016-12-01

    After the devastating hurricane season of 2005, shortcomings with the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale's (SSHS) ability to characterize a tropical cyclones potential to generate storm surge became widely apparent. As a result, several alternative surge indices were proposed to replace the SSHS, including Powell and Reinhold's Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) factor, Kantha's Hurricane Surge Index (HSI), and Irish and Resio's Surge Scale (SS). Of the previous, the IKE factor is the only surge index to-date that truly captures a tropical cyclones integrated intensity, size, and wind field distribution. However, since the IKE factor was proposed in 2007, an accurate assessment of this surge index has not been performed. This study provides the first quantitative evaluation of the IKEs ability to serve as a predictor of a tropical cyclones potential surge impacts as compared to other alternative surge indices. Using the tightly coupled ADvanced CIRCulation and Simulating WAves Nearshore models, the surge and wave responses of Hurricane Ike (2008) and 78 synthetic tropical cyclones were evaluated against the SSHS, IKE, HSI and SS. Results along the upper TX coast of the Gulf of Mexico demonstrate that the HSI performs best in capturing the peak surge response of a tropical cyclone, while the IKE accounting for winds greater than tropical storm intensity (IKETS) provides the most accurate estimate of a tropical cyclones regional surge impacts. These results demonstrate that the appropriate selection of a surge index ultimately depends on what information is of interest to be conveyed to the public and/or scientific community.

  12. Fuel for cyclones: The water vapor budget of a hurricane as dependent on its movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarieva, Anastassia M.; Gorshkov, Victor G.; Nefiodov, Andrei V.; Chikunov, Alexander V.; Sheil, Douglas; Nobre, Antonio Donato; Li, Bai-Lian

    2017-09-01

    Despite the dangers associated with tropical cyclones and their rainfall, the origin of the moisture in these storms, which include destructive hurricanes and typhoons, remains surprisingly uncertain. Existing studies have focused on the region 40-400 km from a cyclone's center. It is known that the rainfall within this area cannot be explained by local processes alone but requires imported moisture. Nonetheless, the dynamics of this imported moisture appears unknown. Here, considering a region up to three thousand kilometers from cyclone center, we analyze precipitation, atmospheric moisture and movement velocities for severe tropical cyclones - North Atlantic hurricanes. Our findings indicate that even over such large areas a hurricane's rainfall cannot be accounted for by concurrent evaporation. We propose instead that a hurricane consumes pre-existing atmospheric water vapor as it moves. The propagation velocity of the cyclone, i.e. the difference between its movement velocity and the mean velocity of the surrounding air (steering flow), determines the water vapor budget. Water vapor available to the hurricane through its movement makes the hurricane self-sufficient at about 700 km from the hurricane center obviating the need to concentrate moisture from greater distances. Such hurricanes leave a dry wake, whereby rainfall is suppressed by up to 40% compared to the local long-term mean. The inner radius of this dry footprint approximately coincides with the hurricane's radius of water self-sufficiency. We discuss how Carnot efficiency considerations do not constrain the power of such open systems. Our findings emphasize the incompletely understood role and importance of atmospheric moisture stocks and dynamics in the behavior of severe tropical cyclones.

  13. Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, Mark A; Lea, Adam S

    2008-01-31

    Atlantic hurricane activity has increased significantly since 1995 (refs 1-4), but the underlying causes of this increase remain uncertain. It is widely thought that rising Atlantic sea surface temperatures have had a role in this, but the magnitude of this contribution is not known. Here we quantify this contribution for storms that formed in the tropical North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico; these regions together account for most of the hurricanes that make landfall in the United States. We show that a statistical model based on two environmental variables--local sea surface temperature and an atmospheric wind field--can replicate a large proportion of the variance in tropical Atlantic hurricane frequency and activity between 1965 and 2005. We then remove the influence of the atmospheric wind field to assess the contribution of sea surface temperature. Our results indicate that the sensitivity of tropical Atlantic hurricane activity to August-September sea surface temperature over the period we consider is such that a 0.5 degrees C increase in sea surface temperature is associated with a approximately 40% increase in hurricane frequency and activity. The results also indicate that local sea surface warming was responsible for approximately 40% of the increase in hurricane activity relative to the 1950-2000 average between 1996 and 2005. Our analysis does not identify whether warming induced by greenhouse gases contributed to the increase in hurricane activity, but the ability of climate models to reproduce the observed relationship between hurricanes and sea surface temperature will serve as a useful means of assessing whether they are likely to provide reliable projections of future changes in Atlantic hurricane activity.

  14. Resilience after Hurricane Katrina among pregnant and postpartum women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harville, Emily W.; Xiong, Xu; Buekens, Pierre; Pridjian, Gabriella; Elkind-Hirsch, Karen

    2010-01-01

    Background Although disaster causes distress, many disaster victims do not develop long-term psychopathology. Others report benefits after traumatic experiences (post-traumatic growth). The objective of this study was to examine demographic and hurricane-related predictors of resilience and post-traumatic growth. Methods 222 pregnant southern Louisiana women were interviewed, and 292 postpartum women completed interviews at delivery and eight weeks later. Resilience was measured by scores lower than a non-affected population, using the Edinburgh Depression Scale and the Post-Traumatic Stress Checklist (PCL). Post-traumatic growth was measured by questions about perceived benefits of the storm. Women were asked about their experience of the hurricane, addressing danger, illness/injury, and damage. Chi-square tests and log-Poisson models were used to calculate associations and relative risks (RR) for demographics, hurricane experience, and mental health resilience and perceived benefit. Findings 35% of pregnant and 34% of the postpartum women were resilient from depression, while 56% and 49% were resilient from post-traumatic stress disorder. Resilience was most likely among white women, older women, and women who had a partner. A greater experience of the storm, particularly injury/illness or danger, was associated with lower resilience. Experiencing damage due to the storm was associated with increased report of some perceived benefits. Conclusions Many pregnant and postpartum women are resilient from the mental health consequences of disaster, and perceive benefits after a traumatic experience. Certain aspects of experiencing disaster reduce resilience, but may increase perceived benefit. PMID:20123173

  15. The trauma signature of 2016 Hurricane Matthew and the psychosocial impact on Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M.; Cela, Toni; Marcelin, Louis Herns; Espinola, Maria; Heitmann, Ilva; Sanchez, Claudia; Jean Pierre, Arielle; Foo, Cheryl YunnShee; Thompson, Kip; Klotzbach, Philip; Espinel, Zelde; Rechkemmer, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background. Hurricane Matthew was the most powerful tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Basin season, bringing severe impacts to multiple nations including direct landfalls in Cuba, Haiti, Bahamas, and the United States. However, Haiti experienced the greatest loss of life and population disruption. Methods. An established trauma signature (TSIG) methodology was used to examine the psychological consequences of Hurricane Matthew in relation to the distinguishing features of this event. TSIG analyses described the exposures of Haitian citizens to the unique constellation of hazards associated with this tropical cyclone. A hazard profile, a matrix of psychological stressors, and a “trauma signature” summary for the affected population of Haiti - in terms of exposures to hazard, loss, and change - were created specifically for this natural ecological disaster. Results. Hazard characteristics of this event included: deluging rains that triggered mudslides along steep, deforested terrain; battering hurricane winds (Category 4 winds in the “eye-wall” at landfall) that dismantled the built environment and launched projectile debris; flooding “storm surge” that moved ashore and submerged villages on the Tiburon peninsula; and pummeling wave action that destroyed infrastructure along the coastline. Many coastal residents were left defenseless to face the ravages of the storm. Hurricane Matthew's slow forward progress as it remained over super-heated ocean waters added to the duration and degree of the devastation. Added to the havoc of the storm itself, the risks for infectious disease spread, particularly in relation to ongoing epidemics of cholera and Zika, were exacerbated. Conclusions. Hurricane Matthew was a ferocious tropical cyclone whose meteorological characteristics amplified the system's destructive force during the storm's encounter with Haiti, leading to significant mortality, injury, and psychological trauma.

  16. The trauma signature of 2016 Hurricane Matthew and the psychosocial impact on Haiti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M; Cela, Toni; Marcelin, Louis Herns; Espinola, Maria; Heitmann, Ilva; Sanchez, Claudia; Jean Pierre, Arielle; Foo, Cheryl YunnShee; Thompson, Kip; Klotzbach, Philip; Espinel, Zelde; Rechkemmer, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    Background. Hurricane Matthew was the most powerful tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Basin season, bringing severe impacts to multiple nations including direct landfalls in Cuba, Haiti, Bahamas, and the United States. However, Haiti experienced the greatest loss of life and population disruption. Methods. An established trauma signature (TSIG) methodology was used to examine the psychological consequences of Hurricane Matthew in relation to the distinguishing features of this event. TSIG analyses described the exposures of Haitian citizens to the unique constellation of hazards associated with this tropical cyclone. A hazard profile, a matrix of psychological stressors, and a "trauma signature" summary for the affected population of Haiti - in terms of exposures to hazard, loss, and change - were created specifically for this natural ecological disaster. Results. Hazard characteristics of this event included: deluging rains that triggered mudslides along steep, deforested terrain; battering hurricane winds (Category 4 winds in the "eye-wall" at landfall) that dismantled the built environment and launched projectile debris; flooding "storm surge" that moved ashore and submerged villages on the Tiburon peninsula; and pummeling wave action that destroyed infrastructure along the coastline. Many coastal residents were left defenseless to face the ravages of the storm. Hurricane Matthew's slow forward progress as it remained over super-heated ocean waters added to the duration and degree of the devastation. Added to the havoc of the storm itself, the risks for infectious disease spread, particularly in relation to ongoing epidemics of cholera and Zika, were exacerbated. Conclusions. Hurricane Matthew was a ferocious tropical cyclone whose meteorological characteristics amplified the system's destructive force during the storm's encounter with Haiti, leading to significant mortality, injury, and psychological trauma.

  17. On the temporal and spatial characteristics of tornado days in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Todd W.

    2017-02-01

    More tornadoes are produced per year in the United States than in any other country, and these tornadoes have produced tremendous losses of life and property. Understanding how tornado activity will respond to climate change is important if we wish to prepare for future changes. Trends in various tornado and tornado day characteristics, including their annual frequencies, their temporal variability, and their spatial distributions, have been reported in the past few years. This study contributes to this body of literature by further analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of tornado days in the United States. The analyses performed in this study support previously reported findings in addition to providing new perspectives, including that the temporal trends are observed only in low-frequency and high-frequency tornado days and that the eastward shift in tornado activity is produced, in part, by the increasing number of high-frequency tornado days, which tend to occur to the east of the traditionally depicted tornado alley in the Great Plains.

  18. Vulnerability Assessment of the nuclear power plant Vandellos II before a tornado; Evaluacion de vulnerabilidad de C.N. Vandellos II ante tornado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernandez, A.; Encabo, J.; Vaz-Romero, A.; Moran, M. A.; Roch, M.; Nicolas, P.; Barrera, N.

    2010-07-01

    The purpose of this work was the study of vulnerability to tornado event Vandellos II NPP. To do this, we have evaluated all structures (buildings), security systems and components to the installation of wind stresses, depression and impact of projectiles, generated by a tornado on the site.

  19. Some wind and instability parameters associated with strong and violent tornadoes: 2. Variations in the combinations of wind and instability parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johns, Robert H.; Davies, Jonathan M.; Leftwich, Preston W.

    Meteorologists have long known that both potential buoyant energy and the strength and vertical profile of the tropospheric wind fields are important in the process of tornado development [e.g., Miller, 1972]. Further, operational experience suggests that the combinations of wind parameters and instability parameters vary considerably from one tornado situation to another. Numerical models suggest that the type of storm that develops in a given situation (e.g., an isolated supercell) is related to both the vertical wind profile and the potential buoyant energy of the air in the updraft entrainment layer [Weisman and Klemp, 1982, 1986]. Observational studies by Rasmussen and Wilhelmson [1983] and Leftwich and Wu [1988] have examined the wind shear/potential buoyant energy relationship in association with tornado development. These studies involved limited data sets and were concerned with the wind shear in a relatively deep layer of the troposphere (0-4-km above ground level (AGL)). Recently, interest has focused on the nature of the wind fields in shallower layers of the lower troposphere, layers that more nearly correspond to the updraft entrainment region [Davies, 1989; Davies-Jones et al., 1990]. Utilizing a large comprehensive data set, Johns et al [1990] (hereafter referred to as JDL) examined the relationship between 0-2-km AGL "positive" wind shear (PWS) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) [Moncrieff and Green, 1972] in association with strong and violent tornado development. In this paper (part 2) the authors review the initial work of JDL and examine additional wind and potential buoyant energy parameter relationships associated with the data set compiled by JDL.

  20. Modelling the response of Placentia Bay to hurricanes Igor and Leslie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Zhimin; Han, Guoqi; de Young, Brad

    2017-04-01

    A three-dimensional, baroclinic, finite-volume ocean model (FVCOM) is used to examine hurricane induced responses in Placentia Bay, Newfoundland. Hurricane Igor (2010) and Hurricane Leslie (2012) made landfall within 100 km of the mouth of the bay, with the former to the eastern side and the latter on the western side. The model results have reasonable agreement with field observations on sea level, near-surface currents and sea surface temperature (SST). During landfall the two hurricanes cause the opposite shifts in inner bay circulation. Hurricane Igor overwhelms the mean inflow into the inner bay and shifts the currents to outflow. Hurricane Leslie reinforces the inflow into the inner bay. The peak storm surge is significantly influenced by local wind and air pressure during Leslie, accounting for 34% and 62% at the Argentia and St. Lawrence tide-gauge stations respectively, but predominately due to remote forcing entering the upstream eastern open boundary during Igor. There is a strong near-surface near-inertial response during Leslie, but a weak one during Igor. Stratification plays an important role in both generation and dissipation of near-inertial oscillation. A strong pre-storm stratification during Leslie favours the generation of near-inertia oscillation. Strong turbulent mixing induced on the right side of Leslie generates large vertical movement of the thermocline and thus contributes to strong near-inertia oscillation inside the mixed layer. The barotropic simulation results in a significant underestimation of near-surface currents and near-inertial oscillation. The baroclinic simulation shows a large increase of the current gradient in the vertical, as the first baroclinic mode in response to the hurricane forcing.

  1. Immediate Impact of Hurricane Sandy on People Who Inject Drugs in New York City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouget, Enrique R; Sandoval, Milagros; Nikolopoulos, Georgios K; Friedman, Samuel R

    2015-01-01

    Over the eight months following Hurricane Sandy, of October 2012, we interviewed 300 people who inject drugs in New York City. During the week after the storm, 28% rescued others or volunteered with aid groups; 60% experienced withdrawal; 27% shared drug injection or preparation equipment, or injected with people they normally would not inject with; 70% of those on opioid maintenance therapy could not obtain sufficient doses; and 43% of HIV-positive participants missed HIV medication doses. Although relatively brief, a hurricane can be viewed as a Big Event that can alter drug environments and behaviors, and may have lasting impact. The study's limitations are noted and future needed research is suggested.

  2. Lime-mud layers in high-energy tidal channels: a record of hurricane deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinn, E.A.; Steinen, R.P.; Dill, R.F.; Major, R.

    1993-01-01

    During or immediately following the transit of Hurricane Andrew (August 23-24, 1992) across the northern part of the Great Bahama Bank, thin laminated beds of carbonate mud were deposited in high-energy subtidal channels (4 m depth) through the ooid shoals of south Cat Cay and Joulters Cays. Thicker, more cohesive (and therefore older) mud beds and angular mud fragments associated with ooids from Joulters Cays have similar characteristics but lack fresh plant fragments. We infer that these older beds were similarly deposited and thus record the passage of previous hurricanes or tropical storms. -from Authors

  3. The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array: Recent severe storm observations and future prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, S. J.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.; Koshak, W.; Bailey, J.; Hall, J.; McCaul, E.; Buechler, D.; Darden, C.; Burks, J.; Bradshaw, T.; Gatlin, P.

    2005-07-01

    The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array became operational in November 2001 as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technology into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather, principally within nearby National Weather Service forecast offices. Since the installation of the LMA, it has measured the total lightning activity of a large number of severe weather events, including three supercell tornado outbreaks, two supercell hailstorm events, and numerous microburst-producing storms and ordinary non-severe thunderstorms. The key components of evolving storm morphology examined are the time rate-of-change (temporal trending) of storm convective and precipitation characteristics that can be diagnosed in real-time using NEXRAD WSR-88D Doppler radar (echo growth and decay, precipitation structures and velocity features, outflow boundaries), LMA (total lightning flash rate and its trend) and National Lightning Detection Network (cloud-to-ground lightning, its polarity and trends). For example, in a transitional season supercell tornado outbreak, peak total flash rates for typical supercells in Tennessee reached 70-100 min -1 and increases in the total flash rate occurred during storm intensification as much as 20-25 min prior to at least some of the tornadoes. The most intense total flash rate measured during this outbreak (over 800 flashes min -1) occurred in a storm in Alabama. In the case of a severe summertime pulse thunderstorm in North Alabama, the peak total flash rate reached 300 min -1, with a strong increase in total lightning evident some 9 min before damaging winds were observed at the surface. In this paper, we provide a sampling of LMA observations and products during severe weather events to illustrate the capability of the system, and discuss the prospects for improving the short-term forecasting of convective weather using total lightning data.

  4. The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum: Forecasting Hurricane Effects at Landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negri, A.; Golden, J. H.; Updike, R.

    2004-01-01

    Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones strike Central American, Caribbean, Southeast Asian and Pacific Island nations even more frequently than the U.S. The global losses of life and property from the floods, landslides and debris flows caused by cyclonic storms are staggering. One of the keys to reducing these losses, both in the U.S. and internationally, is to have better forecasts of what is about to happen from several hours to days before the event. Particularly in developing nations where science, technology and communication are limited, advance-warning systems can have great impact. In developing countries, warnings of even a few hours or days can mitigate or reduce catastrophic losses of life. With the foregoing needs in mind, we propose an initial project of three years total duration that will aim to develop and transfer a warning system for a prototype region in the Central Caribbean, specifically the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum will include satellite observations to track and nowcast dangerous levels of precipitation, atmospheric and hydrological models to predict near-future runoff, and streamflow changes in affected regions, and landslide models to warn when and where landslides and debris flows are imminent. Since surface communications are likely to be interrupted during these crises, the project also includes the capability to communicate disaster information via satellite to vital government officials in Puerto Rico, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.

  5. Improving Our Understanding of Atlantic Hurricanes Through Knowledge of the Saharan Air Layer: Hope Or Hype?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Scott

    2009-01-01

    The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air frequently present over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. The nature of its impact on hurricanes remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts. Some investigators have assumed the validity of these proposed negative influences and have frequently used them to explain the failure of individual storms to intensify or to explain the relative inactivity of recent hurricane seasons. Multiple NASA satellite data sets and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to characterize the SAL's properties and evolution in relation to developing hurricanes. The results will shows that neither jet--induced vertical wind shear nor warm SAL air (high stability) produce significant negative impacts on Atlantic storms. Dry air appears to be a key mechanism for SAL influence, but the presence of dry SAL air is not always a good indicator of whether a storm will weaken since many examples of intensifying storms surrounded by such dry air can be found. Idealized simulations will be used to evaluate the role of dry air. Finally, two case studies of supposedly "prime examples" of SAL influence will show that the negative influences of the SAL are perhaps too readily ascribed to individual storms that fail to reach their maximum potential intensity.

  6. Delayed tree mortality in the Atchafalaya Basin of Southern Louisiana following Hurricane Andrew

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeland, B.D.; Gorham, L.E.

    2009-01-01

    Hurricanes can damage trees in forested wetlands, and the potential for mortality related to these storms exists due to the effects of tree damage over time. In August 1992, Hurricane Andrew passed through the forested wetlands of southern Louisiana with winds in excess of 225 kph. Although more than 78 of the basal area was destroyed in some areas, most trees greater than 2.5 cm dbh were alive and resprouting prolifically the following year (98.8). Survival of most tree species was similarly high two years after the hurricane, but mortality rates of some species increased dramatically. For example, Populus heterophylla (swamp cottonwood) mortality increased from 7.8 to 59.2 (n 76) and Salix interior (sandbar willow) mortality increased from 4.5 to 57.1 (n 21). Stem sprouts on many up-rooted hardwood trees of other species were still alive in 1998, 6 years after the hurricane. Due to the understory tree species composition, regeneration, and high levels of resprouting, there was little change in species composition or perhaps a slight shift toward more shade and flood tolerant species six years following the hurricane event. Triadica sebifera (Chinese tallow) was found on some of the sites heavily disturbed by Hurricane Andrew, and may proliferate at the expense of native tree species. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

  7. Improving the predictive accuracy of hurricane power outage forecasts using generalized additive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Seung-Ryong; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

    2009-10-01

    Electric power is a critical infrastructure service after hurricanes, and rapid restoration of electric power is important in order to minimize losses in the impacted areas. However, rapid restoration of electric power after a hurricane depends on obtaining the necessary resources, primarily repair crews and materials, before the hurricane makes landfall and then appropriately deploying these resources as soon as possible after the hurricane. This, in turn, depends on having sound estimates of both the overall severity of the storm and the relative risk of power outages in different areas. Past studies have developed statistical, regression-based approaches for estimating the number of power outages in advance of an approaching hurricane. However, these approaches have either not been applicable for future events or have had lower predictive accuracy than desired. This article shows that a different type of regression model, a generalized additive model (GAM), can outperform the types of models used previously. This is done by developing and validating a GAM based on power outage data during past hurricanes in the Gulf Coast region and comparing the results from this model to the previously used generalized linear models.

  8. The impact of Hurricane Sandy on the mental health of New York area residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Rebecca M; Sison, Cristina; Kerath, Samantha M; Murphy, Lisa; Breil, Trista; Sikavi, Daniel; Taioli, Emanuela

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate the long-term psychological impact of Hurricane Sandy on New York residents. Prospective, cross-sectional study. Community-based study. From October 2013 to February 2015, 669 adults in Long Island, Queens, and Staten Island completed a survey on their behavioral and psychological health, demographics, and hurricane impact (ie, exposure). Depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Using multivariable logistic regression models, the relationships between Hurricane Sandy exposure and depression, anxiety, and PTSD were examined. Participants experienced an average of 3.9 exposures to Hurricane Sandy, most of which were related to property damage/loss. Probable depression was reported in 33.4 percent of participants, probable anxiety in 46 percent, and probable PTSD in 21.1 percent. Increased exposure to Hurricane Sandy was significantly associated with a greater likelihood of depression (odds ratio [OR] = 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.14), anxiety (OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03-1.13), and probable PTSD (OR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.23-1.40), even after controlling for demographic factors known to increase susceptibility to mental health issues. Individuals affected by Hurricane Sandy reported high levels of mental health issues and were at an increased risk of depression, anxiety, and PTSD in the years following the storm. Recovery and prevention efforts should focus on mental health issues in affected populations.

  9. Coastal-change impacts during hurricane katrina: an overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallenger, Asbury; Wright, C. Wayne; Lillycrop, Jeff

    2007-01-01

    As part of an ongoing cooperative effort between USGS, NASA and USACE, the barrier islands within the right-front quadrant of Hurricane Katrina were surveyed with airborne lidar both before and after landfall. Dauphin Island, AL was located the farthest from landfall and wave runup intermittently overtopped its central and western sections. The Gulf-side of the island experienced severe erosion, leaving the first row of houses in the sea, while the bayside accreted. In contrast, the Chandeleur Islands, LA did not experience, this classic `rollover'. Rather, the island chain was completely stripped of sand, transforming a 40-km-long sandy island chain into a discontinuous series of muddy marsh islets. Models indicate that storm surge likely submerged the entire Chandeleur Island chain, at least during the latter part of the storm. The net result was destructive coastal change for the Chandeleur Islands, while Dauphin Island tended to maintain its form through landward migration.

  10. Comprehensive analysis of tornado statistics in comparison to earthquakes: intensity and temporal behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Schielicke

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Tornadoes and earthquakes are characterised by a high variability in their properties concerning intensity, geometric properties and temporal behaviour. Earthquakes are known for power-law behaviour in their intensity (Gutenberg–Richter law and temporal statistics (e.g. Omori law and interevent waiting times. The observed similarity of high variability of these two phenomena motivated us to compare the statistical behaviour of tornadoes using seismological methods and quest for power-law behaviour. In general, the statistics of tornadoes show power-law behaviour partly coextensive with characteristic scales when the temporal resolution is high (10 to 60 min. These characteristic scales match with the typical diurnal behaviour of tornadoes, which is characterised by a maximum of tornado occurrences in the late afternoon hours. Furthermore, the distributions support the observation that tornadoes cluster in time. Finally, we shortly discuss a possible similar underlying structure composed of heterogeneous, coupled, interactive threshold oscillators that possibly explains the observed behaviour.

  11. NCDC Storm Events Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Data is provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) and contain statistics on personal injuries and damage estimates. Storm Data covers the United States of...

  12. Climatología de tornados en México

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús Manuel Macías Medrano

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Se presenta una introducción a las características de la base de datos de tornados México, mostrando los crite- rios sustantivos de su construcción, así como los elementos de su estructura. Se ofrece un análisis de las características de los tornados, con base en los datos reunidos del periodo del 2000 al 2012, discurriendo sobre sus expresiones espa- ciales y temporales (históricas, estacionales y horarias, para mostrar la importancia de sus capacidades de destrucción y al mismo tiempo de la vulnerabilidad a la que están sujetos los habitantes del país frente a esos fenómenos.

  13. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems for Disaster Relief: Tornado Alley

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBusk, Wesley M.

    2009-01-01

    Unmanned aerial vehicle systems are currently in limited use for public service missions worldwide. Development of civil unmanned technology in the United States currently lags behind military unmanned technology development in part because of unresolved regulatory and technological issues. Civil unmanned aerial vehicle systems have potential to augment disaster relief and emergency response efforts. Optimal design of aerial systems for such applications will lead to unmanned vehicles which provide maximum potentiality for relief and emergency response while accounting for public safety concerns and regulatory requirements. A case study is presented that demonstrates application of a civil unmanned system to a disaster relief mission with the intent on saving lives. The concept utilizes unmanned aircraft to obtain advanced warning and damage assessments for tornados and severe thunderstorms. Overview of a tornado watch mission architecture as well as commentary on risk, cost, need for, and design tradeoffs for unmanned aerial systems are provided.

  14. Thermodynamics of nonequilibrium processes in a tornado: synergistic approach

    CERN Document Server

    Bystrai, G P; Okhotnikov, S A

    2011-01-01

    In the mathematical modeling of strongly nonequilibrium and nonlinear processes in a tornado approach based on the momentum transfer equations with a model function of sources and sinks is used, which puts this approach to the sharpening problems, where the maximum velocity distribution over the space of indefinitely growing for a limited time. Nonlinear momentum source in the medium leads to a blow-up regime, and the development of the regime, itself generated by a nonlinear medium, leads to self-organization, which is described by numerical methods. In this case, the competition between processes of the increasing due to nonlinear source and pulse propagation taking into account the viscosity of the medium leads to the appearance of new medium characteristic - some linear size - the spatial diameter of the tornado, on which these processes "balance" each other. The approach allows to obtain equations that describe the physical effects observed and explain nonlinear transfer mechanisms of layering momentum i...

  15. Magnetic field in atypical prominence structures: Bubble, tornado and eruption

    CERN Document Server

    Levens, P J; Ariste, A López; Labrosse, N; Dalmasse, K; Gelly, B

    2016-01-01

    Spectropolarimetric observations of prominences have been obtained with the THEMIS telescope during four years of coordinated campaigns. Our aim is now to understand the conditions of the cool plasma and magnetism in `atypical' prominences, namely when the measured inclination of the magnetic field departs, to some extent, from the predominantly horizontal field found in `typical' prominences. What is the role of the magnetic field in these prominence types? Are plasma dynamics more important in these cases than the magnetic support? We focus our study on three types of `atypical' prominences (tornadoes, bubbles and jet-like prominence eruptions) that have all been observed by THEMIS in the He I D_3 line, from which the Stokes parameters can be derived. The magnetic field strength, inclination and azimuth in each pixel are obtained by using the Principal Component Analysis inversion method on a model of single scattering in the presence of the Hanle effect. The magnetic field in tornadoes is found to be more ...

  16. The influence of hurricanes upon the quiet depositional conditions in the Lower Emsian La Vid shales of Colle (NW Spain)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stel, Jan H.

    1976-01-01

    The author supposes that the fossil content of thin carbonate units in the Upper La Vid shales (Lower Devonian) of Colle was influenced by heavy storms like hurricanes. Apart from microplankton (Cramer, 1964) no fossils are found in the shales. Together with the very well developed fissility of the

  17. Gulf Coast Hurricanes: Lessons Learned for Protecting and Educating Children. Briefing for Congressional Staff. GAO-06-680R

    Science.gov (United States)

    Government Accountability Office, 2006

    2006-01-01

    In August and September 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused devastating damage to states along the Gulf Coast. In the aftermath of the storms, many questions were raised about the status of the thousands of children living in the affected areas. The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) prepared this preliminary information under the…

  18. A High Density Storm Surge Monitoring Network: Evaluating the Ability of Wetland Vegetation to Reduce Storm Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawler, S.; Denton, M.; Ferreira, C.

    2013-12-01

    Recent tropical storm activity in the Chesapeake Bay and a potential increase in the predicted frequency and magnitude of weather systems have drawn increased attention to the need for improved tools for monitoring, modeling and predicting the magnitude of storm surge, coastal flooding and the respective damage to infrastructure and wetland ecosystems. Among other forms of flood protection, it is believed that coastal wetlands and vegetation can act as a natural barrier that slows hurricane flooding, helping to reduce the impact of storm surge. However, quantifying the relationship between the physical process of storm surge and its attenuation by wetland vegetation is an active area of research and the deployment of in-situ measuring devices is crucial to data collection efforts in this field. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) mobile storm-surge network has already successfully provided a framework for evaluating hurricane induced storm surge water levels on a regional scale through the use of in-situ devices installed in areas affected by storm surge during extreme events. Based on the success of the USGS efforts, in this study we adapted the monitoring network to cover relatively small areas of wetlands and coastal vegetation with an increased density of sensors. Groups of 6 to 10 water level sensors were installed in sites strategically selected in three locations on the Virginia coast of the lower Chesapeake Bay area to monitor different types of vegetation and the resulting hydrodynamic patterns (open coast and inland waters). Each group of sensors recorded time series data of water levels for both astronomical tide circulation and meteorological induced surge. Field campaigns were carried out to survey characteristics of vegetation contributing to flow resistance (i.e. height, diameter and stem density) and mapped using high precision GPS. A geodatabase containing data from field campaigns will support the development and calibration of

  19. Storm-Generated Sediment Distribution Along the Northwest Florida Inner Continental Shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-04

    as the wave-induced return flows through the troughs seaward causes ridge crest aggradation . Ridge detachment from the shoreface occurred during...depositional events following hurricanes and major storm events. Sand is typically deposited or aggraded onto sand ridges as a result of long-shore

  20. Expert System for the Tornado Ground-Based Check-Out System,

    Science.gov (United States)

    demonstrator, supporting the TORNADO check-out system, has been developed and tested. The expert system , called TORRES (TORNADO Radar Readiness Expert ...flight. The expert system is also able to exclude errors, that were generated by other systems capable of changing the state of the radar system and... System ), supports debriefing staff with various levels of experience. The scope of the error detection encompasses the TORNADO Terrain Following and

  1. Comparison of wastewater-associated contaminants in the bed sediment of Hempstead Bay, New York, before and after Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Shawn C.; Phillips, Patrick; Brownawell, Bruce J.; Browne, James

    2016-01-01

    Changes in bed sediment chemistry of Hempstead Bay (HB) have been evaluated in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, which resulted in the release of billions of liters of poorly-treated sewage into tributaries and channels throughout the bay. Surficial grab samples (top 5 cm) collected before and (or) after Hurricane Sandy from sixteen sites in HB were analyzed for 74 wastewater tracers and steroid hormones, and total organic carbon. Data from pre- and post-storm comparisons of the most frequently detected wastewater tracers and ratios of steroid hormone and of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations indicate an increased sewage signal near outfalls and downstream of where raw sewage was discharged. Median concentration of wastewater tracers decreased after the storm at sites further from outfalls. Overall, changes in sediment quality probably resulted from a combination of additional sewage inputs, sediment redistribution, and stormwater runoff in the days to weeks following Hurricane Sandy.

  2. The Ocean Boundary Layer beneath Hurricane Frances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasaro, E. A.; Sanford, T. B.; Terrill, E.; Price, J.

    2006-12-01

    The upper ocean beneath the peak winds of Hurricane Frances (57 m/s) was measured using several varieties of air-deployed floats as part of CBLAST. A multilayer structure was observed as the boundary layer deepened from 20m to 120m in about 12 hours. Bubbles generated by breaking waves create a 10m thick surface layer with a density anomaly, due to the bubbles, of about 1 kg/m3. This acts to lubricate the near surface layer. A turbulent boundary layer extends beneath this to about 40 m depth. This is characterized by large turbulent eddies spanning the boundary layer. A stratified boundary layer grows beneath this reaching 120m depth. This is characterized by a gradient Richardson number of 1/4, which is maintained by strong inertial currents generated by the hurricane, and smaller turbulent eddies driven by the shear instead of the wind and waves. There is little evidence of mixing beneath this layer. Heat budgets reveal the boundary layer to be nearly one dimensional through much of the deepening, with horizontal and vertical heat advection becoming important only after the storm had passed. Turbulent kinetic energy measurements support the idea of reduced surface drag at high wind speeds. The PWP model correctly predicts the degree of mixed layer deepening if the surface drag is reduced at high wind speed. Overall, the greatest uncertainty in understanding the ocean boundary layer at these extreme wind speeds is a characterization of the near- surface processes which govern the air-sea fluxes and surface wave properties.

  3. Household Adjustments to Hurricane Katrina

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Meri Davlasheridze; Qin Fan

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines household adjustments to Hurricane Katrina by estimating the effects of Katrina-induced damages on changes in household demographics and income distributions in the Orleans Parish...

  4. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  5. Annual and seasonal tornado activity in the United States and the global wind oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Todd W.

    2017-08-01

    Previous studies have searched for relationships between tornado activity and atmospheric teleconnections to provide insight on the relationship between tornadoes, their environments, and larger scale patterns in the climate system. Knowledge of these relationships is practical because it can improve seasonal and sub-seasonal predictions of tornado probability and, therefore, help mitigate tornado-related losses. This study explores the relationships between the annual and seasonal tornado activity in the United States and the Global Wind Oscillation. Time series herein show that phases of the Global Wind Oscillation, and atmospheric angular momentum anomalies, vary over a period of roughly 20-25 years. Rank correlations indicate that tornado activity is weakly correlated with phases 2, 3, and 4 (positive) and 6, 7, and 8 (negative) of the Global Wind Oscillation in winter, spring, and fall. The correlation is not as clear in summer or at the annual scale. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney U tests indicate that winters and springs with more phase 2, 3, and 4 and fewer phase 6, 7, and 8 days tend to have more tornadoes. Lastly, logistic regression models indicate that winters and springs with more phase 2, 3, and 4 days have greater likelihoods of having more than normal tornado activity. Combined, these analyses suggest that seasons with more low atmospheric angular momentum days, or phase 2, 3, and 4 days, tend to have greater tornado activity than those with fewer days, and that this relationship is most evident in winter and spring.

  6. Metal concentrations in schoolyard soils from New Orleans, Louisiana before and after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presley, Steven M; Abel, Michael T; Austin, Galen P; Rainwater, Thomas R; Brown, Ray W; McDaniel, Les N; Marsland, Eric J; Fornerette, Ashley M; Dillard, Melvin L; Rigdon, Richard W; Kendall, Ronald J; Cobb, George P

    2010-06-01

    The long-term environmental impact and potential human health hazards resulting from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita throughout much of the United States Gulf Coast, particularly in the New Orleans, Louisiana, USA area are still being assessed and realized after more than four years. Numerous government agencies and private entities have collected environmental samples from throughout New Orleans and found concentrations of contaminants exceeding human health screening values as established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for air, soil, and water. To further assess risks of exposure to toxic concentrations of soil contaminants for citizens, particularly children, returning to live in New Orleans following the storms, soils collected from schoolyards prior to Hurricane Katrina and after Hurricane Rita were screened for 26 metals. Concentrations exceeding USEPA Regional Screening Levels (USEPA-RSL), total exposure, non-cancer endpoints, for residential soils for arsenic (As), iron (Fe), lead (Pb), and thallium (Tl) were detected in soil samples collected from schoolyards both prior to Hurricane Katrina and after Hurricane Rita. Approximately 43% (9/21) of schoolyard soils collected prior to Hurricane Katrina contained Pb concentrations greater than 400mgkg(-1), and samples from four schoolyards collected after Hurricane Rita contained detectable Pb concentrations, with two exceeding 1700mgkg(-1). Thallium concentrations exceeded USEPA-RSL in samples collected from five schoolyards after Hurricane Rita. Based upon these findings and the known increased susceptibility of children to the effects of Pb exposure, a more extensive assessment of the soils in schoolyards, public parks and other residential areas of New Orleans for metal contaminants is warranted. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Simulation of hurricane response to suppression of warm rain by sub-micron aerosols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Rosenfeld

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available The feasibility of hurricane modification was investigated for hurricane Katrina using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF. The possible impact of seeding of clouds with submicron cloud condensation nuclei (CCN on hurricane structure and intensity as measured by nearly halving of the area covered by hurricane force winds was simulated by "turning–off" warm rain formation in the clouds at Katrina's periphery (where wind speeds were less than 22 m s−1. This simplification of the simulation of aerosol effects is aimed at evaluating the largest possible response. This resulted in the weakening of the hurricane surface winds compared to the "non-seeded" simulated storm during the first 24 h within the entire tropical cyclone (TC area compared to a control simulation without warm rain suppression. Later, the seeding-induced evaporative cooling at the TC periphery led to a shrinking of the eye and hence to some increase in the wind within the small central area of the TC. Yet, the overall strength of the hurricane decreased in response to the suppressed warm rain at the periphery, as measured by a 25% reduction in the radius of hurricane force winds. In a simulation with warm rain suppression throughout the hurricane, the relative weakening compared to the control continued throughout the simulations and the eye shrunk even further. This shows that the main mechanism by which suppressing warm rain weakens the TC is the low level evaporative cooling of the un-precipitated cloud drops and the added cooling due to melting of precipitation that falls from above.

  8. Uncertainty and feasibility of dynamical downscaling for modeling tropical cyclones for storm surge simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Taraphdar, Sourav; Wang, Taiping; Ruby Leung, L.; Grear, Molly

    2016-08-22

    This paper presents a modeling study conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of a regional model in simulating hurricane wind and pressure fields, and the feasibility of driving coastal storm surge simulation using an ensemble of region model outputs produced by 18 combinations of three convection schemes and six microphysics parameterizations, using Hurricane Katrina as a test case. Simulated wind and pressure fields were compared to observed H*Wind data for Hurricane Katrina and simulated storm surge was compared to observed high-water marks on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The ensemble modeling analysis demonstrated that the regional model was able to reproduce the characteristics of Hurricane Katrina with reasonable accuracy and can be used to drive the coastal ocean model for simulating coastal storm surge. Results indicated that the regional model is sensitive to both convection and microphysics parameterizations that simulate moist processes closely linked to the tropical cyclone dynamics that influence hurricane development and intensification. The Zhang and McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme and the Lim and Hong (WDM6) microphysics parameterization are the most skillful in simulating Hurricane Katrina maximum wind speed and central pressure, among the three convection and the six microphysics parameterizations. Error statistics of simulated maximum water levels were calculated for a baseline simulation with H*Wind forcing and the 18 ensemble simulations driven by the regional model outputs. The storm surge model produced the overall best results in simulating the maximum water levels using wind and pressure fields generated with the ZM convection scheme and the WDM6 microphysics parameterization.

  9. The Hurricane and Its Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burpee, Robert W.

    Recent population increases in coastal regions of the tropics and subtropics have greatly enhanced man's vulnerability to tropical cyclones. Thus, this book on hurricanes by Robert H. Simpson and Herbert Riehl, two of the leading contributors to hurricane research during the last 35 years, comes along when people of differing backgrounds want to learn more about hurricanes. In the 20 years since Dunn and Miller published Atlantic Hurricanes, technical advances in weather satellites, computer modeling and data processing, and research aircraft have substantially increased the tropical meteorologist's understanding of hurricane structure and dynamics. During this same time, field experiments have led to detailed knowledge of the atmospheric environment within which tropical cyclones are initiated. The authors have attempted to describe many aspects of hurricanes for readers that range from students of meteorology to those concerned with planning for natural hazards in the coastal zone. Because Simpson and Riehl have addressed such a wide audience, many readers with a knowledge of atmospheric science will find that the book is overly descriptive, while readers without some background in physics will find it is too technical.

  10. Hurricane Sandy washover deposits on Fire Island, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Selle, SeanPaul M.; Lunghino, Brent D.; Jaffe, Bruce E.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Costa, Pedro J.M.

    2017-02-16

    Washover deposits on Fire Island, New York, from Hurricane Sandy in 2012 were investigated a year after the storm to document the sedimentary characteristics of hurricane washover features. Sediment data collected in the field includes stratigraphic descriptions and photos from trenches, bulk sediment samples, U-channels, and gouge and push cores. Samples and push cores were further analyzed in the laboratory for grain size, density variations using x-ray computed tomography (CT), and surface microtexture using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). Elevation profiles of washover features were measured using Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) with Real Time Kinematic processing. The DGPS elevations were compared to lidar (light detection and ranging) data from pre- and post-Sandy surveys to assess the degree to which washover deposit thicknesses changed within the year following deposition. Hurricane Sandy washover deposits as much as 1 meter thick were observed in trenches. Initial results show that the upper parts of the deposits have been reworked significantly in some places by wind, but there are still areas where the deposits are almost entirely intact. Where mostly intact, the washover deposits consist of massive or weakly laminated sand near the base, overlain by more strongly laminated sands.

  11. A prospective study of religiousness and psychological distress among female survivors of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Christian S; Rhodes, Jean E; Pérez, John E

    2012-03-01

    This prospective study examined the pathways by which religious involvement affected the post-disaster psychological functioning of women who survived Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The participants were 386 low-income, predominantly Black, single mothers. The women were enrolled in the study before the hurricane, providing a rare opportunity to document changes in mental health from before to after the storm, and to assess the protective role of religious involvement over time. Results of structural equation modeling indicated that, controlling for level of exposure to the hurricanes, pre-disaster physical health, age, and number of children, pre-disaster religiousness predicted higher levels of post-disaster (1) social resources and (2) optimism and sense of purpose. The latter, but not the former, was associated with better post-disaster psychological outcome. Mediation analysis confirmed the mediating role of optimism and sense of purpose.

  12. Disrupted by disaster: shared experiences of student registered nurse anesthetists affected by hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geisz-Everson, Marjorie A; Bennett, Marsha J; Dodd-McCue, Diane; Biddle, Chuck

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this focused ethnography was to describe the shared experiences of student registered nurse anesthetists (SRNAs) whose senior year of education and training was disrupted by Hurricane Katrina, as well as to determine the storm's psychosocial impact on them. A convenience sample of 10 former SRNAs participated in focus groups that were audiorecorded, transcribed, and qualitatively analyzed. Three major themes emerged from the study: Seriousness of Urgency, Managing Uncertainty, and Stability Equaled Relief. The themes represented how the SRNAs appraised and coped with the stressful events surrounding Hurricane Katrina. The psychosocial impact of Hurricane Katrina on the SRNAs resulted mainly in temporary increased alcohol consumption and short-term anxiety. One person started smoking. The results of this study should serve as a guide to formulate policies regarding the education of SRNAs during and immediately after a disaster and to provide a framework for future disaster studies regarding SRNAs. Copyright 2012, SLACK Incorporated.

  13. Hurricane risk management and climate information gatekeeping in southeast Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treuer, G.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical storms provide fresh water necessary for healthy economies and health ecosystems. Hurricanes, massive tropical storms, threaten catastrophic flooding and wind damage. Sea level rise exacerbates flooding risks from rain and storm surge for coastal communities. Climate change adaptation measures to manage this risk must be implemented locally, but actions at other levels of government and by neighboring communities impact the options available to local municipalities. When working on adaptation local decision makers must balance multiple types of risk: physical or scientifically described risks, legal risks, and political risks. Generating usable or actionable climate science is a goal of the academic climate community. To do this we need to expand our analysis to include types of risk that constrain the use of objective science. Integrating physical, legal, and political risks is difficult. Each requires specific expertise and uses unique language. An opportunity exists to study how local decision makers manage all three on a daily basis and how their risk management impacts climate resilience for communities and ecosystems. South Florida's particular vulnerabilities make it an excellent case study. Besides physical vulnerabilities (low elevation, intense coastal development, frequent hurricanes, compromised ecosystems) it also has unique legal and political challenges. Federal and state property rights protections create legal risks for government action that restricts land use to promote climate adaptation. Also, a lack of cases that deal with climate change creates uncertainty about the nature of these legal risks. Politically Florida is divided ideologically and geographically. The regions in the southeast which are most vulnerable are predominantly Hispanic and under-represented at the state level, where leadership on climate change is functionally nonexistent. It is conventional wisdom amongst water managers in Florida that little climate adaptation

  14. Analysis of Typhoon-Tornado Weather Background and Radar Echo Structure%台风龙卷的环境背景和雷达回波结构分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑媛媛; 张备; 王啸华; 孙康远; 慕瑞琪; 夏文梅

    2015-01-01

    Based on NCER reanalysis data,conventional observations data,surface dense observation data and Doppler radar data,the environmental background of 10 tornadoes which occurred within spiral rain belt of typhoon and the evolution characteristics of echo structure of the tornadoes in F2 class and above were studied in detail.The results show that,firsthy typhoon-tornadoes occur in an environment with the weak convective available potential energy (200 -1000 J·kg-1 )and strong low-level vertical wind shear where the vertical wind shear between 0 and 1 km more than 10 -2 s-1 .The storm relative helicity is very great and the typhoon tornado environment average bulk Richardson number is small,averagely below 40. Typhoon-tornadoes mostly occur on the right sides of the moving-paths of the typhoons where the 0-1 km vertical wind shear and storm relative helicity are greater.Typhoon-tornadoes are mainly generated in the spiral rainbands in the outside-region of the typhoons.Before tornadoes come into being the convergence of wind direction and speed appears near the surface,but the temperature gradient is small.Secondly,the storms which produce typhoon-tornadoes are mini supercell storms,with cell centroid being about 2 km and stretching height about 5-7 km,accompanying the mesocyclones in horizontal scales about 2-4 km. The positive vertical vorticity is limited to below 4 km.%提利用 NCER 再分析资料、常规观测和地面加密观测资料及多普勒雷达资料,对10次台风龙卷过程的环境背景和其中 F2~F3级以上龙卷过程的回波结构演变特征进行了详细分析,主要结果如下:(1)台风龙卷所处环境基本为弱对流有效位能(200~1000 J·kg-1)和风随高度强烈顺转的强低空风的垂直切变环境,0~1 km 风的垂直切变超过10-2 s-1,风暴的相对螺旋度很大,台前龙卷环境的粗理查孙数很小,平均在40以下。台风龙卷大多数出现在台风前

  15. Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the

  16. Paleotempestological Record of Intense Storms for the Northern Gulf of Mexico, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bregy, J. C.; Wallace, D. J.

    2016-12-01

    Hurricanes Camille (1969) and Katrina (2005) are two intense hurricanes that made landfall in nearly the same location in Mississippi. Fully understanding the risks associated with hurricane impacts is challenging due to a short instrumental record. Paleotempestology can be used to extend the hurricane record significantly. An advective settling model can be used to back-calculate storm surge heights as a function of sediment transport distance, particle settling velocity, and gravity. We collected cores in a pond and an adjacent beach in coastal Mississippi. Loss-on-ignition and grain-size analyses were performed on these cores, and a Bayesian statistical age-depth model using 137Cs and 14C dating was employed to determine core chronology. Camille and Katrina were used to calibrate the inverse sediment transport model, and similar coarse-grained deposits at depth were identified. Calculated paleosurge intensities from the model indicate values similar in magnitude to Camille over the 2500-yr record. However, given that the shoreline was likely further seaward from its modern location approximately 700 yr BP, these estimates are conservative. Intense hurricane impacts have not varied over multi-millennial time periods, as evidenced by our average annual direct landfall probability (0.48%) closely matching previously published studies from the Gulf of Mexico. However, over shorter timescales, intense hurricanes occurred between 900 to 600 and 2200 to 1900 yr BP, while a period of quiescent storm activity occurred between 1900 to 900 yr BP. The reduction in hurricane activity around 600 yr BP is corroborated by previously published records of sites in the Gulf of Mexico. A known southerly shift in the Loop Current occurred circa 600 yr BP, suggesting that local-scale climate processes are more important in controlling hurricane variability observed between paleotempestological sites from the area rather than larger-scale climate phenomena.

  17. Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity using outgoing longwave radiation over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Li, Laifang

    2016-07-01

    Seasonal hurricane activity is a function of the amount of initial disturbances (e.g., easterly waves) and the background environment in which they develop into tropical storms (i.e., the main development region). Focusing on the former, a set of indices based solely upon the meridional structure of satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the African continent are shown to be capable of predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with very high rates of success. Predictions of named storms based on the July OLR field and trained only on the time period prior to the year being predicted yield a success rate of 87%, compared to the success rate of NOAA's August outlooks of 53% over the same period and with the same average uncertainty range (±2). The resulting OLR indices are statistically robust, highly detectable, physically linked to the predictand, and may account for longer-term observed trends.

  18. Prototype of an Integrated Hurricane Information System for Research: Design and Implementation of the Database and Web Portal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, P. P.; Knosp, B.; Vu, Q. A.; Hristova-Veleva, S.; Chao, Y.; Vane, D.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Su, H.; Dang, V.; Fovell, R.; Willis, J.; Tanelli, S.; Fishbein, E.; Ao, C. O.; Poulsen, W. L.; Park, K. J.; Fetzer, E.; Vazquez, J.; Callahan, P. S.; Marcus, S.; Garay, M.; Kahn, R.; Haddad, Z.

    2007-12-01

    Many hurricane websites provide historical hurricane information and real-time storm tracking. These sites often include images from various remote-sensing satellite sensors with such atmospheric and oceanic quantities as wind, temperature, rain, and water vapor. However, it has been determined that the hurricane analysis community is lacking a web portal that provides researchers a comprehensive set of observed hurricane parameters (both graphics and data) together with large-scale and convection-resolving model output. We have developed a prototype of an integrated hurricane information system of high-resolution satellite and in- situ observations along with model outputs pertaining to: i) the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of storms; ii) the air-sea interaction processes; iii) the larger-scale environment as depicted by quantities such as SST, ocean heat content and the aerosol loading of the environment. Our goal is to provide a one-stop place to access all the available information of a specific hurricane for researchers to advance the understanding, modeling and predication of hurricane genesis and intensity changes. Our hurricane information system prototype consists of high-resolution satellite data measuring three- dimensional atmospheric and oceanic parameters that includes observations from AIRS, MISR, MODIS, CloudSAT, AMSR-E, TRMM, GOES, MLS, QuikSCAT, SeaWiFS, and COSMIC GPS, in-situ observations such as ARGO floats, large scale data assimilation products from NCEP, and high resolution hurricane model output from WRF. High-resolution satellite data are sub-setted within 2000-kilometer-square area centered at the closest storm location and large-scale environmental datasets are divided into 6 predefined geographical regions. When accessing this hurricane portal, users may browse through data by year, region, category, and hurricane. At the front page, we show the hurricane track using Google Map. Users may pan and zoom, or click on the track

  19. The Evolution and Role of the Saharan Air Layer During Hurricane Helene (2006)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Scott A.; Sippel, Jason A.; Shie, Chung-Lin; Boller, Ryan A.

    2013-01-01

    The Saharan air layer (SAL) has received considerable attention in recent years as a potential negative influence on the formation and development of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Observations of substantial Saharan dust in the near environment of Hurricane Helene (2006) during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities (AMMA) Experiment (NAMMA) field campaign led to suggestions about the suppressing influence of the SAL in this case. In this study, a suite of satellite remote sensing data, global meteorological analyses, and airborne data are used to characterize the evolution of the SAL in the environment of Helene and assess its possible impact on the intensity of the storm. The influence of the SAL on Helene appears to be limited to the earliest stages of development, although the magnitude of that impact is difficult to determine observationally. Saharan dust was observed on the periphery of the storm during the first two days of development after genesis when intensification was slow. Much of the dust was observed to move well westward of the storm thereafter, with little SAL air present during the remainder of the storm's lifetime and with the storm gradually becoming a category-3 strength storm four days later. Dry air observed to wrap around the periphery of Helene was diagnosed to be primarily non-Saharan in origin (the result of subsidence) and appeared to have little impact on storm intensity. The eventual weakening of the storm is suggested to result from an eyewall replacement cycle and substantial reduction of the sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane as its forward motion decreased.

  20. Using CloudSat and MODIS for exploring a hurricane intensity estimation technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, R. J.

    2012-12-01

    Observing Tropical Cyclones (TC) using satellites is a common and successful endeavor. However, using satellites to accurately measure storm intensity is a more difficult and involved task. Our research aim to accurately measure hurricane intensity using only satellite obtained data. Modeling a hurricane as a balanced convectively neutral vortex, along with assumptions on the contributing factors to moist static energy, we explore techniques for estimating hurricane intensity. We used maximum sustained wind to characterize hurricane intensity. We calculated maximum sustained wind using the Wong and Emanuel expression for peak wind speed in a storm. CloudSat cloud profiling radar was used for obtaining cloud-top height and cloud composition information, and the MODIS instrument on-board Aqua was used to obtain cloud-top temperature. This technique requires eye or near eye overpass and simultaneous data collection and as a result have a limited sample size. We compare our results to the best track database and analyze the validity of our estimations.

  1. Disasters as Learning Experiences or Disasters as Policy Opportunities? Examining Flood Insurance Purchases after Hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kousky, Carolyn

    2017-03-01

    Flood insurance is a critical risk management strategy, contributing to greater resilience of individuals and communities. The occurrence of disasters has been observed to alter risk management choices, including the decision to insure. This has previously been explained by learning and behavioral biases. When it comes to flood insurance, however, federal disaster aid policy could also play a role since recipients of aid are required to maintain insurance. Using a database of flood insurance policies for all states on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States between 2001 and 2010, this article uses fixed effects models to examine how take-up rates respond to the occurrence of hurricanes and tropical storms, as well as disaster declarations and aid requirements. Being hit by at least one hurricane in the previous year increases net flood insurance purchases by 7.2%. This effect dies out by three years after the storm. A presidential disaster declaration for floods increases take-up rates by 6.7%. When disaster aid grants are made available to households, take-up rates increase by 5%; this accounts for the majority of the increase in policies after occurrence of a hurricane. When the models are estimated taking into account which policies are required by disaster aid, hurricanes are estimated to lead to only a 1.5% increase in voluntary purchases. This overlooked federal policy that disaster aid recipients insure is responsible for a majority of insurance purchases postdisaster. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Comments on the Hurricane Juan report to the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tedesco, R.R.

    2004-05-14

    Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) has responded to several recommendations made by an independent consultant regarding its emergency response to Hurricane Juan which hit the Halifax Regional Municipality on September 28, 2003. NSPI is in agreement with most of the recommendations and is enhancing its preparedness for use in disaster scenarios similar to Hurricane Juan. Several recommendations have already been implemented by the power company including, improvements to call centre technology and processes, and better coordination with the electricity market operator and municipal responders. Lessons learned from Hurricane Juan were applied during a snow storm in February 2004, particularly in terms of communications. NSPI strongly disagrees with the consultant's recommendation to bring in hundreds of line crews from outside the region in advance of a major storm. NSPI argues that doing so, would have tripled or quadrupled Hurricane Juan costs to $40 or $50 million with little or no improvement on restoration times. Nova Scotia Power Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Emera (EMA-TSX). The utility provides more than 97 per cent of electric generation, transmission, and distribution to more than 460,000 customers across Nova Scotia. NSPI is committed to supporting Nova Scotian communities by providing safe, reliable power.

  3. Hurricane Data Analysis Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana; Leptoukh, Gregory

    2011-01-01

    In order to facilitate Earth science data access, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC) has developed a web prototype, the Hurricane Data Analysis Tool (HDAT; URL: http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/HDAT), to allow users to conduct online visualization and analysis of several remote sensing and model datasets for educational activities and studies of tropical cyclones and other weather phenomena. With a web browser and few mouse clicks, users can have a full access to terabytes of data and generate 2-D or time-series plots and animation without downloading any software and data. HDAT includes data from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA Quick Scatterometer(QuikSCAT) and NECP Reanalysis, and the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N - 60 S) IR Dataset. The GES DISC archives TRMM data. The daily global rainfall product derived from the 3-hourly multi-satellite precipitation product (3B42 V6) is available in HDAT. The TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) sea surface temperature from the Remote Sensing Systems is in HDAT as well. The NASA QuikSCAT ocean surface wind and the NCEP Reanalysis provide ocean surface and atmospheric conditions, respectively. The global merged IR product, also known as, the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N -60 S) IR Dataset, is one of TRMM ancillary datasets. They are globally-merged pixel-resolution IR brightness temperature data (equivalent blackbody temperatures), merged from all available geostationary satellites (GOES-8/10, METEOSAT-7/5 & GMS). The GES DISC has collected over 10 years of the data beginning from February of 2000. This high temporal resolution (every 30 minutes) dataset not only provides additional background information to TRMM and other satellite missions, but also allows observing a wide range of meteorological phenomena from space, such as, hurricanes, typhoons, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convection system, etc. Basic functions include selection of area of

  4. Hurricane Rita Track Radar Image with Topographic Overlay

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Animation About the animation: This simulated view of the potential effects of storm surge flooding on Galveston and portions of south Houston was generated with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Although it is protected by a 17-foot sea wall against storm surges, flooding due to storm surges caused by major hurricanes remains a concern. The animation shows regions that, if unprotected, would be inundated with water. The animation depicts flooding in one-meter increments. About the image: The Gulf Coast from the Mississippi Delta through the Texas coast is shown in this satellite image from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) overlain with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and the predicted storm track for Hurricane Rita. The prediction from the National Weather Service was published Sept. 22 at 4 p.m. Central Time, and shows the expected track center in black with the lighter shaded area indicating the range of potential tracks the storm could take. Low-lying terrain along the coast has been highlighted using the SRTM elevation data, with areas within 15 feet of sea level shown in red, and within 30 feet in yellow. These areas are more at risk for flooding and the destructive effects of storm surge and high waves. Data used in this image were acquired by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour, launched on Feb. 11, 2000. SRTM used the same radar instrument that comprised the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) that flew twice on the Space Shuttle Endeavour in 1994. SRTM was designed to collect 3-D measurements of the Earth's surface. To collect the 3-D data, engineers added a 60-meter (approximately 200-foot) mast, installed additional C-band and X-band antennas, and improved tracking and navigation devices. The mission is a cooperative project between NASA, the National Geospatial

  5. Hurricane Wilma Poster (October 24, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Wilma poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-18 shows Hurricane Wilma exiting Florida off the east Florida coast on October 24, 2005. Poster size is 34"x30".

  6. Hurricane Hugo Poster (September 21, 1989)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Hugo poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-11 captures Hurricane Hugo slamming into South Carolina coast on September 21, 1989. Poster size is 36"x36".

  7. Hurricane Sandy Poster (October 29, 2012)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Sandy poster. Multi-spectral image from Suomi-NPP shows Hurricane Sandy approaching the New Jersey Coast on October 29, 2012. Poster size is approximately...

  8. Hurricane Jeanne Poster (September 25, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Jeanne poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Jeanne near Grand Bahama Island on September 25, 2004. Poster size is 34"x30".

  9. Hurricane Charley Poster (August 13, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Charley poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows a small but powerful hurricane heading toward southern Florida on August 13, 2004. Poster dimension...

  10. Hurricane Isabel Poster (September 18, 2003)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Isabel poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Isabel making landfall on the North Carolina Outer Banks on September 18, 2003. Poster...

  11. Hurricane Frances Poster (September 5, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Frances poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Frances over central Florida on September 5, 2004. Poster dimension is approximately...

  12. Hurricane Ivan Poster (September 15, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Ivan poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Ivan in the Gulf of Mexico on September 15, 2004. Poster size is 34"x30".

  13. Understanding Impacts of Coastal Storms From 2007-08 in National Parks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrelli, M.; Beavers, R.

    2008-12-01

    The United States National Park Service (NPS) is assessing the storm vulnerability of resources in coastal parks. After the active 2004-2005 hurricane seasons a project was initiated to better understand how storms affect the morphology of these areas. Landforms such as barrier islands and spits, open ocean and bayside beaches as well as backbarrier ecosystems such as tidal flats and salt marshes are being examined. Impacts from tropical and extratropical cyclones from 2007-08 will be looked at in detail. An extratropical cyclone in the northeastern United States in April 2007 caused significant changes to several parks. A new inlet formed through a barrier spit within the boundaries of Cape Cod National Seashore in Massachusetts. The new inlet has captured a significant portion of the tidal prism and will likely become the primary inlet. Seasonal homes and park structures were lost due to the subsequent inlet widening and erosion. Along the southern shore of Long Island, New York coastal dune erosion >12m was documented during the same storm at Fire Island National Seashore. This storm, though not extraordinarily powerful, illustrates the role extratropical cyclones play as primary drivers of coastal change along the northeast coast. Tropical cyclones play a similar role in the coastal morphodynamics along the southeastern Atlantic coast, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Gustav was a Category 2 storm at landfall in September 2008 and produced significant change to coastal areas in Louisiana and Mississippi. The recovery seen at some barrier islands since Hurricane Katrina was lost during this event, demonstrating how barrier islands recovering from previous storms are more vulnerable to less intense events. At Gulf Islands National Seashore, West Ship Island, which lost considerable subaerial volume during the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons, was completely inundated during Hurricane Gustav and Jean Lafitte National Historical Park and Preserve in Louisiana

  14. Tornadoes and related damage costs: statistical modeling with a semi-Markov approach

    CERN Document Server

    Corini, Chiara; Petroni, Filippo; Prattico, Flavio; Manca, Raimondo

    2015-01-01

    We propose a statistical approach to tornadoes modeling for predicting and simulating occurrences of tornadoes and accumulated cost distributions over a time interval. This is achieved by modeling the tornadoes intensity, measured with the Fujita scale, as a stochastic process. Since the Fujita scale divides tornadoes intensity into six states, it is possible to model the tornadoes intensity by using Markov and semi-Markov models. We demonstrate that the semi-Markov approach is able to reproduce the duration effect that is detected in tornadoes occurrence. The superiority of the semi-Markov model as compared to the Markov chain model is also affirmed by means of a statistical test of hypothesis. As an application we compute the expected value and the variance of the costs generated by the tornadoes over a given time interval in a given area. he paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that semi-Markov models represent an effective tool for physical analysis of tornadoes as well as for the estimati...

  15. Numerical study of the effects of rotating forced downdraft in reproducing tornado-like vortices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jinwei; Cao, Shuyang; Tamura, Tetsuro; Tokyo Institute of Technology Collaboration; Tongji Univ Collaboration

    2016-11-01

    Appropriate physical modeling of a tornado-like vortex is a prerequisite to studying near-surface tornado structure and tornado-induced wind loads on structures. Ward-type tornado simulator modeled tornado-like flow by mounting guide vanes around the test area to provide angular momentum to converging flow. Iowa State University, USA modified the Ward-type simulator by locating guide vanes at a high position to allow vertical circulation of flow that creates a rotating forced downdraft in the process of generating a tornado. However, the characteristics of the generated vortices have not been sufficiently investigated till now. In this study, large-eddy simulations were conducted to compare the dynamic vortex structure generated with/without the effect of rotating forced downdraft. The results were also compared with other CFD and experimental results. Particular attention was devoted to the behavior of vortex wander of generated tornado-like vortices. The present study shows that the vortex center wanders more significantly when the rotating forced downdraft is introduced into the flow. The rotating forced downdraft is advantageous for modeling the rear flank downdraft phenomenon of a real tornado.

  16. Structure and Prevalence of PTSD Symptomology in Children Who Have Experienced a Severe Tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Linda Garner; Oehler-Stinnett, Judy

    2006-01-01

    Children served by school psychologists are frequently impacted by natural disasters. In the United States, tornadoes are a particular threat but have been studied very little. The current investigation developed a scale for assessing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in children in Kindergarten to Grade 6 impacted by a severe tornado. Six…

  17. Structure and Prevalence of PTSD Symptomology in Children Who Have Experienced a Severe Tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Linda Garner; Oehler-Stinnett, Judy

    2006-01-01

    Children served by school psychologists are frequently impacted by natural disasters. In the United States, tornadoes are a particular threat but have been studied very little. The current investigation developed a scale for assessing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in children in Kindergarten to Grade 6 impacted by a severe tornado. Six…

  18. Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views

    CERN Document Server

    Elsner, James B; Fricker, Tyler

    2016-01-01

    This paper estimates local tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over time. Results provide a long-term view of risk that delineates the main tornado corridors in the United States where the expected annual rate exceeds two tornadoes per 10,000 square km. A few counties in the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas have annual rates that exceed four tornadoes per 10,000 square km. Refitting the model after removing the least damaging tornadoes from the data (EF0) produces a similar map but with the greatest tornado risk shifted south and eastward. Second, a space-time model is fit to the counts aggregated in raster cells with terms that control for changes in climate factors. Results provide a short-term view of risk. The short-term view identifies the shift of tornado activity away from the Ohio Valley under El Ni\\~no conditions and away from the S...

  19. Attenuation of Storm Surge Flooding By Wetlands in the Chesapeake Bay: An Integrated Geospatial Framework Evaluating Impacts to Critical Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalid, A.; Haddad, J.; Lawler, S.; Ferreira, C.

    2014-12-01

    Areas along the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries are extremely vulnerable to hurricane flooding, as evidenced by the costly effects and severe impacts of recent storms along the Virginia coast, such as Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Coastal wetlands, in addition to their ecological importance, are expected to mitigate the impact of storm surge by acting as a natural protection against hurricane flooding. Quantifying such interactions helps to provide a sound scientific basis to support planning and decision making. Using storm surge flooding from various historical hurricanes, simulated using a coupled hydrodynamic wave model (ADCIRC-SWAN), we propose an integrated framework yielding a geospatial identification of the capacity of Chesapeake Bay wetlands to protect critical infrastructure. Spatial identification of Chesapeake Bay wetlands is derived from the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI), National Land Cover Database (NLCD), and the Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP). Inventories of population and critical infrastructure are extracted from US Census block data and FEMA's HAZUS-Multi Hazard geodatabase. Geospatial and statistical analyses are carried out to develop a relationship between wetland land cover, hurricane flooding, population and infrastructure vulnerability. These analyses result in the identification and quantification of populations and infrastructure in flooded areas that lie within a reasonable buffer surrounding the identified wetlands. Our analysis thus produces a spatial perspective on the potential for wetlands to attenuate hurricane flood impacts in critical areas. Statistical analysis will support hypothesis testing to evaluate the benefits of wetlands from a flooding and storm-surge attenuation perspective. Results from geospatial analysis are used to identify where interactions with critical infrastructure are relevant in the Chesapeake Bay.

  20. Characterizing Extreme Ionospheric Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, L.; Komjathy, A.; Altshuler, E.

    2011-12-01

    Ionospheric storms consist of disturbances of the upper atmosphere that generate regions of enhanced electron density typically lasting several hours. Depending upon the storm magnitude, gradients in electron density can sometimes become large and highly localized. The existence of such localized, dense irregularities is a major source of positioning error for users of the Global Positioning System (GPS). Consequently, satellite-based augmentation systems have been implemented to improve the accuracy and to ensure the integrity of user position estimates derived from GPS measurements. Large-scale irregularities generally do not pose a serious threat to estimate integrity as they can be readily detected by such systems. Of greater concern, however, are highly localized irregularities that interfere with the propagation of a signal detected by a user measurement but are poorly sampled by the receivers in the system network. The most challenging conditions have been found to arise following disturbances of large magnitude that occur only rarely over the course of a solar cycle. These extremely disturbed conditions exhibit behavior distinct from moderately disturbed conditions and, hence, have been designated "extreme storms". In this paper we examine and compare the behavior of the extreme ionospheric storms of solar cycle 23 (or, more precisely, extreme storms occurring between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2008), as represented in maps of vertical total electron content. To identify these storms, we present a robust means of quantifying the regional magnitude of an ionospheric storm. Ionospheric storms are observed frequently to occur in conjunction with magnetic storms, i.e., periods of geophysical activity as measured by magnetometers. While various geomagnetic indices, such as the disturbance storm time (Dst) and the planetary Kp index, have long been used to rank the magnitudes of distinct magnetic storms, no comparable, generally recognized index exists for

  1. Evaluation of GPM candidate algorithms on hurricane observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, M.; Chandrasekar, C. V.

    2012-12-01

    storms and hurricanes. In this paper, the performance of GPM candidate algorithms [2][3] to perform profile classification, melting region detection as well as drop size distribution retrieval for hurricane Earl will be presented. This analysis will be compared with other storm observations that are not tropical storms. The philosophy of the algorithm is based on the vertical characteristic of measured dual-frequency ratio (DFRm), defined as the difference in measured radar reflectivities at the two frequencies. It helps our understanding of how hurricanes such as Earl form and intensify rapidly. Reference [1] T. Iguchi, R. Oki, A. Eric and Y. Furuhama, "Global precipitation measurement program and the development of dual-frequency precipitation radar," J. Commun. Res. Lab. (Japan), 49, 37-45.2002. [2] M. Le and V. Chandrasekar, Recent updates on precipitation classification and hydrometeor identification algorithm for GPM-DPR, Geoscience science and remote sensing symposium, IGARSS'2012, IEEE International, Munich, Germany. [3] M. Le ,V. Chandrasekar and S. Lim, Microphysical retrieval from dual-frequency precipitation radar board GPM, Geoscience science and remote sensing symposium, IGARSS'2010, IEEE International, Honolulu, USA.

  2. North Atlantic Storm Activity During the Younger Dryas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toomey, M.

    2015-12-01

    The risks posed to cities along the Eastern Seaboard by a potential intensification of tropical cyclone activity over the coming decades remain poorly constrained, in part, due to a lack of available storm proxy records that extend beyond the relatively stable climates of the late Holocene. Previous work in the Bahamas shows that coarse-grained, high-energy event layers in carbonate bank margin sediments: (1) closely track recent historic hurricane events and (2) that the sensitivity of this proxy may be less affected by the deglacial changes in sea level that have limited our ability to reconstruct past hurricane activity using overwash records from back-barrier beach settings. Here we present a record of storm triggered turbidite deposition from a suite of well dated (e.g. Lynch-Stieglitz et al., 2011, Paleoceanography) jumbo piston cores taken offbank (300-500 mbsl) the Dry Tortugas, Florida, that spans abrupt transitions in North Atlantic sea surface temperature and thermohaline circulation during the Younger Dryas (12.9 - 11.5 kyr BP). This record, along with General Circulation Model output (TraCE: NCAR-CGD), indicates strong hurricane activity may have occurred along Southeastern US coasts through this interval despite considerably colder North Atlantic SSTs.

  3. l tornado che colpì la laguna di Venezia I ' l l Settembre 1970 Qualche considerazione intorno alla teoria elettrica dei tornado

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. JANESELLI

    1972-06-01

    Full Text Available After a short description of the disastrous effects of the
    tornado which struck the Venice lagoon on September 11, 1970, the principal
    theories which in the centuries tried to account for the origin of such
    terrible vortexes, are reviewed. In particular, some remarks are given about
    the electrical theory of the tornadoes. It seems to the author that some features
    would be explained in a simple way by considering the tornado as a
    convectivo cell with electric currents of high intensity. Finally, after recalling
    the meteorological conditions preceding the tornado of September 11,
    its chief features are described.

  4. Forecasting Hurricane by Satellite Image

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M. Y.

    Earth is an endanger planet. Severe weather, especially hurricanes, results in great disaster all the world. World Meteorology Organization and United Nations Environment Program established intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to offer warnings about the present and future disasters of the Earth. It is the mission for scientists to design warning system to predict the severe weather system and to reduce the damage of the Earth. Hurricanes invade all the world every year and made millions damage to all the people. Scientists in weather service applied satellite images and synoptic data to forecast the information for the next hours for warning purposes. Regularly, hurricane hits on Taiwan island directly will pass through her domain and neighbor within 10 hours. In this study, we are going to demonstrate a tricky hurricane NARI invaded Taiwan on September 16, 2000. She wandered in the neighborhood of the island more than 72 hours and brought heavy rainfall over the island. Her track is so tricky that scientists can not forecast her path using the regular method. Fortunately, all scientists in the Central Weather Bureau paid their best effort to fight against the tricky hurricane. Applying the new developed technique to analysis the satellite images with synoptic data and radar echo, scientists forecasted the track, intensity and rainfall excellently. Thus the damage of the severe weather reduced significantly.

  5. Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes

    OpenAIRE

    Khare, Shree; Jewson, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling hurricanes, and for intense hurricanes only. We find that the averaging lengths needed for optimal predictions of numbers of intense hurricanes are longer than those needed for optimal predictions of numbers of hurricanes of all strengths.

  6. Making hurricane track data accessible

    OpenAIRE

    Slingsby, A.; Strachan, J.; Vidale, P.; Dykes, J.; Wood, J.

    2010-01-01

    Our interactive tool allows the exploration, validation and presentation of hundreds of years of dynamically simulated storm tracks. The tracks were generated as part of a research project to improve the risk assessment of tropical storm damage by the insurance industry. The main impact of the tool is that exploratory interactive visualisation is now being used by the storm track modellers to (a) validate and improve model outputs, (b) discuss outputs with their peers (c) obtain a better unde...

  7. The occurrence of a tornado in Serbia on 31 march 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavlovic-Berdon Nada

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Tornado occurs very rarely in the territory of Serbia. The occurrence of a tornado above Torda (Vojvodina, Serbia on 31 March 2013 indicted the importance of monitoring such a dangerous weather phenomenon, knowing its characteristics and forecasting it. This paper analyzes the synoptic conditions and vertical structure of the atmosphere that prevailed during the development of a supercell with a tornado. Changes in temperature and air pressure are presented on mesoscale maps. The analysis was performed by using the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM. The tornado occurrence was monitored via satellite images and radar characteristics of a supercell. The cause of tornadogenesis has been ascertained. According to the EF scale, the tornado reached F0 intensity. Damages to roofs, power lines, trees and cars caused by the wind (>35ms-1 are also presented.

  8. Wind Field of a Nonmesocyclone Anticyclonic Tornado Crossing the Hong Kong International Airport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen A. Kosiba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A nonmesocyclone tornado traversed the Hong Kong International Airport on September 6, 2004 directly impacting a surface weather station. This allowed for 1-second 10-meter above ground level (AGL wind observations through the core of the tornado. Integration of these 10-meter AGL wind data with Ground-Based Velocity Track (GBVTD wind retrievals derived from LIDAR data provided a time history of the three-dimensional wind field of the tornado. These data indicate a progressive decrease in radial inflow with time and little to no radial inflow near the time the tornado crosses the surface weather station. Anemometer observations suggest that the tangential winds approximate a modified-Rankine vortex outside the radius of maximum winds, suggesting that frictionally induced radial inflow was confined below 10 m AGL. The radial-height distribution of angular momentum depicts an increase in low-level angular momentum just prior to the tornado reaching its maximum intensity.

  9. An experimental investigation of flow around a vehicle passing through a tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Masahiro; Obara, Kouhei; Okura, Nobuyuki

    2016-03-01

    Flow around a vehicle running through a tornado was investigated experimentally. A tornado simulator was developed to generate a tornado-like swirl flow. PIV study confirmed that the simulator generates two-celled vortices which are observed in the natural tornadoes. A moving test rig was developed to run a 1/40 scaled train-shaped model vehicle under the tornado simulator. The car contained pressure sensors, a data logger with an AD converter to measure unsteady surface pressures during its run through the swirling flow. Aerodynamic forces acting on the vehicle were estimated from the pressure data. The results show that the aerodynamic forces change its magnitude and direction depending on the position of the car in the swirling flow. The asymmetry of the forces about the vortex centre suggests the vehicle itself may deform the flow field.

  10. 7 CFR 701.50 - 2005 hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false 2005 hurricanes. 701.50 Section 701.50 Agriculture... ADMINISTERED UNDER THIS PART § 701.50 2005 hurricanes. In addition benefits elsewhere allowed by this part, claims related to calendar year 2005 hurricane losses may be allowed to the extent provided for in §§ 701...

  11. Hurricane Katrina impacts on Mississippi forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonja N. Oswalt; Christopher Oswalt; Jeffery Turner

    2008-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina triggered public interest and concern for forests in Mississippi that required rapid responses from the scientific community. A uniform systematic sample of 3,590 ground plots were established and measured in 687 days immediately after the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast. The hurricane damaged an estimated 521 million trees with more...

  12. Numerical Modelling of Electromagnetic Field in a Tornado

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Fiala

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This study deals with the numerical model of both the physical and the chemical processes in the tornado. Within the paper, a basic theoretical model and a numerical solution are presented. We prepared numerical models based on the combined finite element method (FEM and the finite volume method (FVM. The model joins the magnetic, electric and current fields, the flow field and a chemical nonlinear ion model. The results were obtained by means of the FEM/FVM as a main application in ANSYS software.

  13. Coral-gravel storm ridges: examples from the tropical Pacific and Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Bruce M.; Morton, Robert A.

    2007-01-01

    Extreme storms in reef environments have long been recognized as a mechanism for depositing ridges of reef-derived coarse clastic sediment. This study revisits the storm ridges formed by Tropical Cyclone Bebe on Funafuti, Tuvalu and Tropical Cyclone Ofa on Upolu, Western Samoa in the South Pacific, and Hurricane Lenny on Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles in the Caribbean. Ridge characteristics produced by these storms include: heights of 1–4 m, widths of 8–50 m, and lengths up to 18 km. The ridges tend to be higher and steeper on their landward margins than on their seaward margins and are composed mostly of re-worked coral rubble derived from reef front settings with smaller amounts of fresh broken coral (5–30%). Characteristics of these modern gravel storm ridges can be used to help identify ancient storm deposits and to differentiate between other coarse-grained deposits such as those created by tsunamis.

  14. Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Inundation for Categories 2 and 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    The file geodatabase (fgdb) contains the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Maximum of Maximums (MOM) model for hurricane categories 2 and 4. The EPA Office of Research & Development (ORD) modified the original model from NOAA to fit the model parameters for the Buzzards Bay region. The models show storm surge extent for the Mattapoisett area and therefore the flooding area was reduced to the study area. Areas of flooding that were not connected to the main water body were removed. The files in the geodatabase are:Cat2_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 2 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 4 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR4_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Future Category 4 hurricane with 4 feet sea level riseThe features support the Weather Ready Mattapoisett story map, which can be accessed via the following link:https://epa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=1ff4f1d28a254cb689334799d94b74e2

  15. Impacts of cloud flare-ups on hurricane intensity resulting from departures from balance laws

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. N. Krishnamurti

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Cloud flare-ups along the inner eye wall of a hurricane lead to enhancement of cloud scale divergence, which in turn leads to a large local enhancement of the departure from balance laws and can lead to local supergradient winds. This scenario is tested using the results from a mesoscale microphysical model at horizontal resolution of 1.33 km for the simulation of hurricane Katrina. Rainwater mixing ratio tags growing cloud elements. The departure from balance laws includes terms such as the local, horizontal and vertical advections of divergence, divergence square and a term invoking the gradient of vertical velocity. It is noted that these terms collectively contribute to a substantial local enhancement of the departure from balance laws. Departures from balance laws are related to the radial gradient wind imbalances in a storm-centred coordinate. In this study, several examples, from the hurricane Katrina simulations, that display this scenario of rapid intensification are illustrated. Organisation of convection in the azimuthal direction seems important for the hurricane scale; cloud flare-ups away from such regions of azimuthal organisation fail to contribute to this scenario for the overall intensification of the hurricane.

  16. Dependence of Hurricane Intensity and Structures on Vertical Resolution and Time-Step Size

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Da-Lin ZHANG; Xiaoxue WANG

    2003-01-01

    In view of the growing interests in the explicit modeling of clouds and precipitation, the effects of varyingvertical resolution and time-step sizes on the 72-h explicit simulation of Hurricane Andrew (1992) arestudied using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR)mesoscale model (i.e., MMS) with the finest grid size of 6 km. It is shown that changing vertical resolutionand time-step size has significant effects on hurricane intensity and inner-core cloud/precipitation, butlittle impact on the hurricane track. In general, increasing vertical resolution tends to produce a deeperstorm with lower central pressure and stronger three-dimensional winds, and more precipitation. Similareffects, but to a less extent, occur when the time-step size is reduced. It is found that increasing thelow-level vertical resolution is more efficient in intensifying a hurricane, whereas changing the upper-levelvertical resolution has little impact on the hurricane intensity. Moreover, the use of a thicker surface layertends to produce higher maximum surface winds. It is concluded that the use of higher vertical resolution,a thin surface layer, and smaller time-step sizes, along with higher horizontal resolution, is desirable tomodel more realistically the intensity and inner-core structures and evolution of tropical storms as well asthe other convectively driven weather systems.

  17. A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function

    CERN Document Server

    Ehrlich, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The data-driven model presented here carries stark implications for the large increased numbers of hurricanes which it predicts for a warmer world. Moreover, the rise in recent decades in the numbers of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but not the Pacific basin, is shown to have a simple explanation in terms of the specific form of H(z), which yields larger percentage increases when a fixed increase in sea surface temperature occurs at higher latitudes and lower temperatures.

  18. Trace element concentrations in surface estuarine and marine sediments along the Mississippi Gulf Coast following Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Crystal; Duzgoren-Aydin, Nurdan S; Weston, James; Willett, Kristine L

    2012-01-01

    Hurricanes are relatively frequent ecological disturbances that may cause potentially long-term impacts to the coastal environment. Hurricane Katrina hit the Mississippi Gulf Coast in August 2005, and caused a storm surge with the potential to change the trace element content of coastal surface sediments. In this study, surface estuarine and marine sediments were collected monthly following the storm from ten sites along the Mississippi Gulf Coast (Mobile Bay, Grand Bay Bayous Heron and Cumbest, Pascagoula, Ocean Springs, Biloxi Gulf, Back Biloxi Bay, Gulfport Gulf, Gulfport Courthouse Rd, and Gulfport Marina). Concentrations of V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Zn, As, Cd, and Pb were measured by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry to evaluate their temporal and spatial variations in the year following Hurricane Katrina. Sediments were characterized by pH, particle size distribution and total carbon and nitrogen content. Trace element contents of the sediments were determined in both Hurricane Katrina would not cause an adverse impact on resident organisms. Instead, the concentrations of trace elements were site-dependent, with specific contaminants relating to the use of the area prior to Hurricane Katrina.

  19. Post-traumatic stress disorder in an emergency department population one year after Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Lisa D; Mills, Trevor J; Macht, Marlow; Levitan, Rachel; De Wulf, Annelies; Afonso, Natasha S

    2012-07-01

    Hurricane Katrina resulted in a significant amount of injury, death, and destruction. To determine the prevalence of, and risk factors for, symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in an emergency department (ED) population, 1 year after hurricane Katrina. Survey data including the Primary Care PTSD (PC-PTSD) screening instrument, demographic data, and questions regarding health care needs and personal loss were collected and analyzed. Seven hundred forty-seven subjects completed the survey. The PC-PTSD screen was positive in 38%. In the single variate analysis, there was a correlation with a positive PC-PTSD screen and the following: staying in New Orleans during the storm (odds ratio [OR] 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-2.34), having material losses (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.03-2.60), experiencing the death of a loved one (OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.35-1.87), needing health care during the storm (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.48-2.73), and not having health care needs met during the storm (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.26-3.18) or after returning to New Orleans (OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.40-3.73). In the multivariate analysis, the death of a loved one (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.26-2.78), being in New Orleans during the storm (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.22-2.33), and seeking health care during the storm (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.22-2.35) were associated with positive PC-PTSD screens. There was a high prevalence of PTSD in this ED population surveyed 1 year after hurricane Katrina. By targeting high-risk patients, disaster relief teams may be able to reduce the impact of PTSD in similar populations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  20. The dynamics of hurricane balls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, W. L.; Werner, Steven

    2015-09-01

    We examine the theory of the hurricane balls toy. This toy consists of two steel balls, welded together that are sent spinning on a horizontal surface somewhat like a top. Unlike a top, at high frequency the symmetry axis approaches a limiting inclination that is not perpendicular to the surface. We calculate (and experimentally verify) the limiting inclinations for three toy geometries. We find that at high frequencies, hurricane balls provide an easily realized and testable example of the Poinsot theory of freely rotating symmetrical bodies.