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Sample records for hurricane tornado flood

  1. Prevention of destructive tropical and extratropical storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms, and catastrophic floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Yu. Krasilnikov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in the instability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather a long time duration. Based on this hypothesis, a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease in an electric field, a sudden increase in precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method, based on the natural phenomenon, ensures the prevention of the intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It also ensures the suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates the development of dangerous thunderstorms and the possibility of the emergence and intensification of tornadoes.

  2. Power Scaling of the Size Distribution of Economic Loss and Fatalities due to Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Tornadoes, and Floods in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebbens, S. F.; Barton, C. C.; Scott, B. E.

    2016-12-01

    Traditionally, the size of natural disaster events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods is measured in terms of wind speed (m/sec), energy released (ergs), or discharge (m3/sec) rather than by economic loss or fatalities. Economic loss and fatalities from natural disasters result from the intersection of the human infrastructure and population with the size of the natural event. This study investigates the size versus cumulative number distribution of individual natural disaster events for several disaster types in the United States. Economic losses are adjusted for inflation to 2014 USD. The cumulative number divided by the time over which the data ranges for each disaster type is the basis for making probabilistic forecasts in terms of the number of events greater than a given size per year and, its inverse, return time. Such forecasts are of interest to insurers/re-insurers, meteorologists, seismologists, government planners, and response agencies. Plots of size versus cumulative number distributions per year for economic loss and fatalities are well fit by power scaling functions of the form p(x) = Cx-β; where, p(x) is the cumulative number of events with size equal to and greater than size x, C is a constant, the activity level, x is the event size, and β is the scaling exponent. Economic loss and fatalities due to hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods are well fit by power functions over one to five orders of magnitude in size. Economic losses for hurricanes and tornadoes have greater scaling exponents, β = 1.1 and 0.9 respectively, whereas earthquakes and floods have smaller scaling exponents, β = 0.4 and 0.6 respectively. Fatalities for tornadoes and floods have greater scaling exponents, β = 1.5 and 1.7 respectively, whereas hurricanes and earthquakes have smaller scaling exponents, β = 0.4 and 0.7 respectively. The scaling exponents can be used to make probabilistic forecasts for time windows ranging from 1 to 1000 years

  3. Genesis of tornadoes associated with hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentry, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    The climatological history of hurricane-tornadoes is brought up to date through 1982. Most of the tornadoes either form near the center of the hurricane, from the outer edge of the eyewall outward, or in an area between north and east-southeast of the hurricane center. The blackbody temperatures of the cloud tops which were analyzed for several hurricane-tornadoes that formed in the years 1974, 1975, and 1979, did not furnish strong precursor signals of tornado formation, but followed one of two patterns: either the temperatures were very low, or the tornado formed in areas of strong temperature gradients. Tornadoes with tropical cyclones most frequently occur at 1200-1800 LST, and although most are relatively weak, they can reach the F3 intensity level. Most form in association with the outer rainbands of the hurricane.

  4. Tornadoes and Lightning and Floods, Oh My! Weather-Related Web Sites for K-12 Science Lessons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matkins, Juanita Jo; Murphy, Denise

    1999-01-01

    Reviews 30 weather-related Web sites, including readability level, under the subjects of air pressure, bad meteorology, clouds, droughts, floods, hurricanes, lightning, seasons, temperature, thunderstorms, tornadoes, water cycle, weather instruments, weather on other planets, and wind. (LRW)

  5. Condensation-induced kinematics and dynamics of cyclones, hurricanes and tornadoes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makarieva, A.M.; Gorshkov, V.G.

    2009-01-01

    A universal equation is obtained for air pressure and wind velocity in cyclones, hurricanes and tornadoes as dependent on the distance from the center of the considered wind pattern driven by water vapor condensation. The obtained theoretical estimates of the horizontal profiles of air pressure and wind velocity, eye and wind wall radius in hurricanes and tornadoes and maximum values of the radial, tangential and vertical velocity components are in good agreement with empirical evidence.

  6. Daily variation in natural disaster casualties: information flows, safety, and opportunity costs in tornado versus hurricane strikes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahran, Sammy; Tavani, Daniele; Weiler, Stephan

    2013-07-01

    Casualties from natural disasters may depend on the day of the week they strike. With data from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS), daily variation in hurricane and tornado casualties from 5,043 tornado and 2,455 hurricane time/place events is analyzed. Hurricane forecasts provide at-risk populations with considerable lead time. Such lead time allows strategic behavior in choosing protective measures under hurricane threat; opportunity costs in terms of lost income are higher during weekdays than during weekends. On the other hand, the lead time provided by tornadoes is near zero; hence tornados generate no opportunity costs. Tornado casualties are related to risk information flows, which are higher during workdays than during leisure periods, and are related to sheltering-in-place opportunities, which are better in permanent buildings like businesses and schools. Consistent with theoretical expectations, random effects negative binomial regression results indicate that tornado events occurring on the workdays of Monday through Thursday are significantly less lethal than tornados that occur on weekends. In direct contrast, and also consistent with theory, the expected count of hurricane casualties increases significantly with weekday occurrences. The policy implications of observed daily variation in tornado and hurricane events are considered. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 1 - Reconstruction of Hurricane Harvey Flooding for Harris County, TX using a GPU-accelerated 2D flood model for post-flood hazard analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalyanapu, A. J.; Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey that made landfall in the southern Texas this August is one of the most destructive hurricanes during the 2017 hurricane season. During its active period, many areas in coastal Texas region received more than 40 inches of rain. This downpour caused significant flooding resulting in about 77 casualties, displacing more than 30,000 people, inundating hundreds of thousands homes and is currently estimated to have caused more than $70 billion in direct damage. One of the significantly affected areas is Harris County where the city of Houston, TX is located. Covering over two HUC-8 drainage basins ( 2702 mi2), this county experienced more than 80% of its annual average rainfall during this event. This study presents an effort to reconstruct flooding caused by extreme rainfall due to Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. This computationally intensive task was performed at a 30-m spatial resolution using a rapid flood model called Flood2D-GPU, a graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated model, on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) Titan Supercomputer. For this task, the hourly rainfall estimates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV Quantitative Precipitation Estimate were fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and Routing Application for Parallel computation of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to estimate flow hydrographs at 69 locations for Flood2D-GPU simulation. Preliminary results of the simulation including flood inundation extents, maps of flood depths and inundation duration will be presented. Future efforts will focus on calibrating and validating the simulation results and assessing the flood damage for better understanding the impacts made by Hurricane Harvey.

  8. Hurricane Agnes rainfall and floods, June-July 1972

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, James F.; Patterson, James Lee; Paulhus, Joseph Louis Hornore

    1975-01-01

    Hurricane Agnes originated in the Caribbean Sea region in mid-June. Circulation barely reached hurricane intensity for a brief period in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm crossed the Florida Panhandle coastline on June 19, 1972, and followed an unusually extended overland trajectory combining with an extratropical system to bring very heavy rain from the Carolinas northward to New York. This torrential rain followed the abnormally wet May weather in the Middle Atlantic States and set the stage for the subsequent major flooding. The record-breaking floods occurred in the Middle Atlantic States in late June and early July 1972. Many streams in the affected area experienced peak discharges several times the previous maxima of record. Estimated recurrence intervals of peak flows at many gaging stations on major rivers and their tributaries exceeded 100 years. The suspended-sediment concentration and load of most flooded streams were also unusually high. The widespread flooding from this storm caused Agnes to be called the most destructive hurricane in United States history, claiming 117 lives and causing damage estimated at $3.1 billion in 12 States. Damage was particularly high in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia. The detailed life history of Hurricane Agnes, including the tropical depression and tropical storm stages, is traced. Associated rainfalls are analyzed and compared with climatologic recurrence values. These are followed by a detailed description of the flood and streamflows of each affected basin. A summary of peak stages and discharges and comparison data for previous floods at 989 stations are presented. Deaths and flood damage estimates are compiled.

  9. Wind and tornado guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    The objective of the Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Project is to provide guidance and criteria for design of new facilities and for evaluation of existing ones subjected to extreme winds, earthquakes, and floods. This paper describes the treatment of wind and tornado hazards. Four facility-use categories are defined which represent increasing levels of risk to personnel or the environment in the event of a high wind event. Facilities are assigned to a particular category, depending on their mission, value, or toxic material content. The assigned facility-use category determines the design and evaluation criteria. The criteria are based on probabilistic hazard assessment. Performance goals are also specified for each facility-use category. A uniform approach to design wind loads, based on the ANSI A58.1-1982 standard, allows treatment of high winds and hurricane and tornado winds in a similar manner. Based on the wind hazard models, some sites must account for the possibility of tornadoes while others do not. Atmospheric pressure changes and missiles must be taken into account when considering tornadoes. The design and evaluation guidelines are designed to establish consistent levels of risk for different natural phenomena hazards and for facilities at different geographical locations

  10. On necessity of revaluation of nuclear power safety of Ukraine in the tornado hazardous areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skalozubov, V.I.; Gablaya, T.V.; Vasilchenko, S.V.; Kozlov, I.V.

    2015-01-01

    The article contains the main provisions regulating the tornado danger of objects of atomic energy, as well as analysis of the known results of evaluations of the impact of hurricanes on the safety of nuclear power plants of Ukraine, received in the ''before'' and ''post Fukushima'' periods. As a result of analysis is insufficient justification to the estimated frequency of passing tornadoes and exclusion from consideration emergency events with flooding of indus-trial sites under the influence of tornadoes not less than 2-th class intensity, defined a reassessment of NPP safety of Ukraine taking into account reasonably established performance tornado dangerous areas and lessons Fukushima accident

  11. Hurricane coastal flood analysis using multispectral spectral images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogashawara, I.; Ferreira, C.; Curtarelli, M. P.

    2013-12-01

    Flooding is one of the main hazards caused by extreme events such as hurricanes and tropical storms. Therefore, flood maps are a crucial tool to support policy makers, environmental managers and other government agencies for emergency management, disaster recovery and risk reduction planning. However traditional flood mapping methods rely heavily on the interpolation of hydrodynamic models results, and most recently, the extensive collection of field data. These methods are time-consuming, labor intensive, and costly. Efficient and fast response alternative methods should be developed in order to improve flood mapping, and remote sensing has been proved as a valuable tool for this application. Our goal in this paper is to introduce a novel technique based on spectral analysis in order to aggregate knowledge and information to map coastal flood areas. For this purpose we used the Normalized Diference Water Index (NDWI) which was derived from two the medium resolution LANDSAT/TM 5 surface reflectance product from the LANDSAT climate data record (CDR). This product is generated from specialized software called Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS). We used the surface reflectance products acquired before and after the passage of Hurricane Ike for East Texas in September of 2008. We used as end member a classification of estimated flooded area based on the United States Geological Survey (USGS) mobile storm surge network that was deployed for Hurricane Ike. We used a dataset which consisted of 59 water levels recording stations. The estimated flooded area was delineated interpolating the maximum surge in each location using a spline with barriers method with high tension and a 30 meter Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the National Elevation Dataset (NED). Our results showed that, in the flooded area, the NDWI values decreased after the hurricane landfall on average from 0.38 to 0.18 and the median value decreased from 0.36 to 0.2. However

  12. Monitoring and Mapping the Hurricane Harvey Flooding in Houston, Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaji Bhaskar, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Monitoring and Mapping the Hurricane Harvey Flooding in Houston, Texas.Urban flooding is a hazard that causes major destruction and loss of life. High intense precipitation events have increased significantly in Houston, Texas in recent years resulting in frequent river and bayou flooding. Many of the historical storm events such as Allison, Rita and Ike have caused several billion dollars in losses for the Houston-Galveston Region. A category 4 Hurricane Harvey made landfall on South Texas resulting in heavy precipitation from Aug 25 to 29 of 2017. About 1 trillion gallons of water fell across Harris County over a 4-day period. This amount of water covers Harris County's 1,800 square miles with an average of 33 inches of water. The long rain event resulted in an average 40inch rainfall across the area in several rain gauges and the maximum rainfall of 49.6 inches was recorded near Clear Creek. The objectives of our study are to 1) Process the Geographic Information System (GIS) and satellite data from the pre and post Hurricane Harvey event in Houston, Texas and 2) Analyze the satellite imagery to map the nature and pattern of the flooding in Houston-Galveston Region. The GIS data of the study area was downloaded and processed from the various publicly available resources such as Houston Galveston Area Council (HGAC), Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and Texas Natural Resource Information Systems (TNRIS). The satellite data collected soon after the Harvey flooding event were downloaded and processed using the ERDAS image processing software. The flood plain areas surrounding the Brazos River, Buffalo Bayou and the Addicks Barker reservoirs showed severe inundation. The different watershed areas affected by the catastrophic flooding in the wake of Hurricane Harvey were mapped and compared with the pre flooding event.

  13. Challenges in estimating the health impact of Hurricane Sandy using macro-level flood data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieberman-Cribbin, W.; Liu, B.; Schneider, S.; Schwartz, R.; Taioli, E.

    2016-12-01

    Background: Hurricane Sandy caused extensive physical and economic damage but the long-term health impacts are unknown. Flooding is a central component of hurricane exposure, influencing health through multiple pathways that unfold over months after flooding recedes. This study assesses concordance in Federal Emergency Management (FEMA) and self-reported flood exposure after Hurricane Sandy to elucidate discrepancies in flood exposure assessments. Methods: Three meter resolution New York State flood data was obtained from the FEMA Modeling Task Force Hurricane Sandy Impact Analysis. FEMA data was compared to self-reported flood data obtained through validated questionnaires from New York City and Long Island residents following Sandy. Flooding was defined as both dichotomous and continuous variables and analyses were performed in SAS v9.4 and ArcGIS 10.3.1. Results: There was a moderate agreement between FEMA and self-reported flooding (Kappa statistic 0.46) and continuous (Spearman's correlation coefficient 0.50) measures of flood exposure. Flooding was self-reported and recorded by FEMA in 23.6% of cases, while agreement between the two measures on no flooding was 51.1%. Flooding was self-reported but not recorded by FEMA in 8.5% of cases, while flooding was not self-reported but indicated by FEMA in 16.8% of cases. In this last instance, 84% of people (173/207; 83.6%) resided in an apartment (no flooding reported). Spatially, the most concordance resided in the interior of New York City / Long Island, while the greatest areas of discordance were concentrated in the Rockaway Peninsula and Long Beach, especially among those living in apartments. Conclusions: There were significant discrepancies between FEMA and self-reported flood data. While macro-level FEMA flood data is a relatively less expensive and faster way to provide exposure estimates spanning larger geographic areas affected by Hurricane Sandy than micro-level estimates from cohort studies, macro

  14. Rapid-response flood mapping during Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria by the Global Flood Partnership (GFP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S.; Alfieri, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Coughlan, E.; Galantowicz, J. F.; Hong, Y.; Kettner, A.; Nghiem, S. V.; Prados, A. I.; Rudari, R.; Salamon, P.; Trigg, M.; Weerts, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Global Flood Partnership (GFP; https://gfp.jrc.ec.europa.eu) is a multi-disciplinary group of scientists, operational agencies and flood risk managers focused on developing efficient and effective global flood management tools. Launched in 2014, its aim is to establish a partnership for global flood forecasting, monitoring and impact assessment to strengthen preparedness and response and to reduce global disaster losses. International organizations, the private sector, national authorities, universities and research agencies contribute to the GFP on a voluntary basis and benefit from a global network focused on flood risk reduction. At the onset of Hurricane Harvey, GFP was `activated' using email requests via its mailing service. Soon after, flood inundation maps, based on remote sensing analysis and modeling, were shared by different agencies, institutions, and individuals. These products were disseminated, to varying degrees of effectiveness, to federal, state and local agencies via emails and data-sharing services. This generated a broad data-sharing network which was utilized at the early stages of Hurricane Irma's impact, just two weeks after Harvey. In this presentation, we will describe the extent and chronology of the GFP response to both Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. We will assess the potential usefulness of this effort for event managers in various types of organizations and discuss future improvements to be implemented.

  15. Self-Reported and FEMA Flood Exposure Assessment after Hurricane Sandy: Association with Mental Health Outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wil Lieberman-Cribbin

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy caused extensive physical and economic damage; the long-term mental health consequences are unknown. Flooding is a central component of hurricane exposure, influencing mental health through multiple pathways that unfold over months after flooding recedes. Here we assess the concordance in self-reported and Federal Emergency Management (FEMA flood exposure after Hurricane Sandy and determine the associations between flooding and anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD. Self-reported flood data and mental health symptoms were obtained through validated questionnaires from New York City and Long Island residents (N = 1231 following Sandy. Self-reported flood data was compared to FEMA data obtained from the FEMA Modeling Task Force Hurricane Sandy Impact Analysis. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to determine the relationship between flooding exposure and mental health outcomes. There were significant discrepancies between self-reported and FEMA flood exposure data. Self-reported dichotomous flooding was positively associated with anxiety (ORadj: 1.5 [95% CI: 1.1-1.9], depression (ORadj: 1.7 [1.3-2.2], and PTSD (ORadj: 2.5 [1.8-3.4], while self-reported continuous flooding was associated with depression (ORadj: 1.1 [1.01-1.12] and PTSD (ORadj: 1.2 [1.1-1.2]. Models with FEMA dichotomous flooding (ORadj: 2.1 [1.5-2.8] or FEMA continuous flooding (ORadj: 1.1 [1.1-1.2] were only significantly associated with PTSD. Associations between mental health and flooding vary according to type of flood exposure measure utilized. Future hurricane preparedness and recovery efforts must integrate micro and macro-level flood exposures in order to accurately determine flood exposure risk during storms and realize the long-term importance of flooding on these three mental health symptoms.

  16. Using integrated modeling for generating watershed-scale dynamic flood maps for Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saksena, S.; Dey, S.; Merwade, V.; Singhofen, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey, which was categorized as a 1000-year return period event, produced unprecedented rainfall and flooding in Houston. Although the expected rainfall was forecasted much before the event, there was no way to identify which regions were at higher risk of flooding, the magnitude of flooding, and when the impacts of rainfall would be highest. The inability to predict the location, duration, and depth of flooding created uncertainty over evacuation planning and preparation. This catastrophic event highlighted that the conventional approach to managing flood risk using 100-year static flood inundation maps is inadequate because of its inability to predict flood duration and extents for 500-year or 1000-year return period events in real-time. The purpose of this study is to create models that can dynamically predict the impacts of rainfall and subsequent flooding, so that necessary evacuation and rescue efforts can be planned in advance. This study uses a 2D integrated surface water-groundwater model called ICPR (Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing) to simulate both the hydrology and hydrodynamics for Hurricane Harvey. The methodology involves using the NHD stream network to create a 2D model that incorporates rainfall, land use, vadose zone properties and topography to estimate streamflow and generate dynamic flood depths and extents. The results show that dynamic flood mapping captures the flood hydrodynamics more accurately and is able to predict the magnitude, extent and time of occurrence for extreme events such as Hurricane Harvey. Therefore, integrated modeling has the potential to identify regions that are more susceptible to flooding, which is especially useful for large-scale planning and allocation of resources for protection against future flood risk.

  17. Flood Inundation Mapping and Emergency Operations during Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, N. Z.; Cotter, J.; Gao, S.; Bedient, P. B.; Yung, A.; Penland, C.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey struck the Gulf Coast as Category 4 on August 25, 2017 with devastating and life-threatening floods in Texas. Harris County received up to 49 inches of rainfall over a 5-day period and experienced flooding level and impacts beyond any previous storm in Houston's history. The depth-duration-frequency analysis reveals that the areal average rainfall for Brays Bayou surpasses the 500-year rainfall in both 24 and 48 hours. To cope with this unprecedented event, the researchers at the University of Texas at Arlington and Rice University worked closely with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the National Weather Service (NWS), the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM), Walter P. Moore and Associates, Inc. and Halff Associates, to conduct a series of meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to delineate flood inundation maps. Up to eight major watersheds in Harris County were delineated based the available QPE data from WGRFC. The inundation map over Brays Bayou with their impacts from Hurricane Harvey was delineated in comparison with those of 100-, 500-year, and Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) design storms. This presentation will provide insights for both engineers and planners to re-evaluate the existing flood infrastructure and policy, which will help build Houston stronger for future extreme storms. The collaborative effort among the federal, academic, and private entities clearly demonstrates an effective approach for flood inundation mapping initiatives for the nation.

  18. Effects of salinity and flooding on post-hurricane regeneration potential in coastal wetland vegetation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A

    2016-08-01

    The nature of regeneration dynamics after hurricane flooding and salinity intrusion may play an important role in shaping coastal vegetation patterns. The regeneration potentials of coastal species, types and gradients (wetland types from seaward to landward) were studied on the Delmarva Peninsula after Hurricane Sandy using seed bank assays to examine responses to various water regimes (unflooded and flooded to 8 cm) and salinity levels (0, 1, and 5 ppt). Seed bank responses to treatments were compared using a generalized linear models approach. Species relationships to treatment and geographical variables were explored using nonmetric multidimensional scaling. Flooding and salinity treatments affected species richness even at low salinity levels (1 and 5 ppt). Maritime forest was especially intolerant of salinity intrusion so that species richness was much higher in unflooded and low salinity conditions, despite the proximity of maritime forest to saltmarsh along the coastal gradient. Other vegetation types were also affected, with potential regeneration of these species affected in various ways by flooding and salinity, suggesting relationships to post-hurricane environment and geographic position. Seed germination and subsequent seedling growth in coastal wetlands may in some cases be affected by salinity intrusion events even at low salinity levels (1 and 5 ppt). These results indicate that the potential is great for hurricanes to shift vegetation type in sensitive wetland types (e.g., maritime forest) if post-hurricane environments do not support the regeneration of extent vegetation. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. © Botanical Society of America (outside the USA) 2016.

  19. Monitoring storm tide and flooding from Hurricane Matthew along the Atlantic coast of the United States, October 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frantz, Eric R.; Byrne,, Michael L.; Caldwell, Andral W.; Harden, Stephen L.

    2017-11-02

    IntroductionHurricane Matthew moved adjacent to the coasts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The hurricane made landfall once near McClellanville, South Carolina, on October 8, 2016, as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of storm-tide sensors at 284 sites along the Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of hurricane storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Matthew. Storm tide, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is the water-level rise generated by a combination of storm surge and astronomical tide during a coastal storm.The deployment for Hurricane Matthew was the largest deployment of storm-tide sensors in USGS history and was completed as part of a coordinated Federal emergency response as outlined by the Stafford Act (Public Law 92–288, 42 U.S.C. 5121–5207) under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. In total, 543 high-water marks (HWMs) also were collected after Hurricane Matthew, and this was the second largest HWM recovery effort in USGS history after Hurricane Sandy in 2012.During the hurricane, real-time water-level data collected at temporary rapid deployment gages (RDGs) and long-term USGS streamgage stations were relayed immediately for display on the USGS Flood Event Viewer (https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/FEV/#MatthewOctober2016). These data provided emergency managers and responders with critical information for tracking flood-effected areas and directing assistance to effected communities. Data collected from this hurricane can be used to calibrate and evaluate the performance of storm-tide models for maximum and incremental water level and flood extent, and the site-specific effects of storm tide on natural and anthropogenic features of the environment.

  20. MAPPING THE EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF SEVER FLOODING INDUCED BY HURRICANE IRMA WITH MULTI-TEMPORAL SENTINEL-1 SAR AND INSAR OBSERVATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Zhang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available During Hurricane Irma’s passage over Florida in September 2017, many sections of the state experienced heavy rain and sequent flooding. In order to drain water out of potential flooding zones and assess property damage, it is important to map the extent and magnitude of the flooded areas at various stages of the storm. We use Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR and Interferometric SAR (InSAR observations, acquired by Sentinel-1 before, during and after the hurricane passage, which enable us to evaluate surface condition during different stages of the hurricane. This study uses multi-temporal images acquired under dry condition before the hurricane to constrain the background backscattering signature. Flooded areas are detected when the backscattering during the hurricane is statistically significantly different from the average dry conditions. The detected changes can be either an increase or decrease of the backscattering, which depends on the scattering characteristics of the surface. In addition, water level change information in Palmdale, South Florida is extracted from an interferogram with the aid of a local water gauge as the reference. The results of our flooding analysis revealed that the majority of the study area in South Florida was flooded during Hurricane Irma.

  1. Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

  2. Fiji's worst natural disaster: the 1931 hurricane and flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, Stephen W; Blong, Russell J

    2010-07-01

    At least 225 people in the Fiji Islands died as a result of the 1931 hurricane and flood, representing the largest loss of life from a natural disaster in Fiji's recent history. This paper explores the causes of disaster and the potential for recurrence. The disaster occurred because a rare event surprised hundreds of people-especially recently settled Indian farmers-occupying highly exposed floodplains in north-west Viti Levu island. The likelihood of a flood disaster of such proportions occurring today has been diminished by changed settlement patterns and building materials; however, a trend towards re-occupancy of floodplains, sometimes in fragile dwellings, is exposing new generations to flood risks. The contribution of this paper to the global hazards literature is set out in three sections: the ethnicity, gender and age of flood fatalities; the naturalness of disasters; and the merit of choice and constraint as explanations for patterns of vulnerability.

  3. Medium range forecasting of Hurricane Harvey flash flooding using ECMWF and social vulnerability data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillosu, F. M.; Jurlina, T.; Baugh, C.; Tsonevsky, I.; Hewson, T.; Prates, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Prudhomme, C.

    2017-12-01

    During hurricane Harvey the greater east Texas area was affected by extensive flash flooding. Their localised nature meant they were too small for conventional large scale flood forecasting systems to capture. We are testing the use of two real time forecast products from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in combination with local vulnerability information to provide flash flood forecasting tools at the medium range (up to 7 days ahead). Meteorological forecasts are the total precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI), a measure of how the ensemble forecast probability distribution differs from the model-climate distribution for the chosen location, time of year and forecast lead time; and the shift of tails (SOT) which complements the EFI by quantifying how extreme an event could potentially be. Both products give the likelihood of flash flood generating precipitation. For hurricane Harvey, 3-day EFI and SOT products for the period 26th - 29th August 2017 were used, generated from the twice daily, 18 km, 51 ensemble member ECMWF Integrated Forecast System. After regridding to 1 km resolution the forecasts were combined with vulnerable area data to produce a flash flood hazard risk area. The vulnerability data were floodplains (EU Joint Research Centre), road networks (Texas Department of Transport) and urban areas (Census Bureau geographic database), together reflecting the susceptibility to flash floods from the landscape. The flash flood hazard risk area forecasts were verified using a traditional approach against observed National Weather Service flash flood reports, a total of 153 reported flash floods have been detected in that period. Forecasts performed best for SOT = 5 (hit ratio = 65%, false alarm ratio = 44%) and EFI = 0.7 (hit ratio = 74%, false alarm ratio = 45%) at 72 h lead time. By including the vulnerable areas data, our verification results improved by 5-15%, demonstrating the value of vulnerability information within

  4. Mathematical modeling of tornadoes and squall storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Arsen’yev

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional mathematical modeling of a tornado with the fourth coordinate time multiplied by its characteristic velocity. Such a tornado can arise in a thunderstorm supercell filled with turbulent whirlwinds. A theory of the squall storms is proposed. The squall storm is modeled by running perturbation of the temperature inversion on the lower boundary of cloudiness. This perturbation is induced by the action of strong, hurricane winds in the upper and middle troposphere, and looks like a running solitary wave (soliton; which is developed also in a field of pressure and velocity of a wind. If a soliton of a squall storm gets into the thunderstorm supercell then this soliton is captured by supercell. It leads to additional pressure fall of air inside a storm supercell and stimulate amplification of wind velocity here. As a result, a cyclostrophic balance inside a storm supercell generates a tornado. Comparison of the radial distribution of wind velocity inside a tornado calculated by using the new formulas and equations with radar observations of the wind velocity inside Texas Tornado Dummit in 1995 and inside the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado shows good correspondence.

  5. Mapping the Extent and Magnitude of Severe Flooding Induced by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria with Sentinel-1 SAR and InSAR Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, B.; Koirala, R.; Oliver-Cabrera, T.; Wdowinski, S.; Osmanoglu, B.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes can cause winds, rainfall and storm surge, all of which could result in flooding. Between August and September 2017, Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria made landfall over Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico causing destruction and damages. Flood mapping is important for water management and to estimate risks and property damage. Though water gauges are able to monitor water levels, they are normally distributed sparsely. To map flooding products of these extreme events, we use Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) observations acquired by the European satellite constellation Sentinel-1. We obtained two acquisitions from before each flooding event, a single acquisition during the hurricane, and two after each event, a total of five acquisitions. We use both amplitude and phase observations to map extent and magnitude of flooding respectively. To map flooding extents, we use amplitude images from before, after and if possible during the hurricane pass. A calibration is used to convert the image raw data to backscatter coefficient, termed sigma nought. We generate a composite of the two image layers using red and green bands to show the change of sigma nought between acquisitions, which directly reflects the extent of flooding. Because inundation can result with either an increase or decrease of sigma nought values depending on the surface scattering characteristics, we map flooded areas in location where sigma nought changes were above a detection threshold. To study magnitude of flooding we study Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) phase changes. Changes in the water level can be detected by the radar when the signal is reflected away from water surface and bounces again by another object (e.g. trees and/or buildings) known as double bounce phase. To generate meaningful interferograms, we compare phase information with the nearest water gauge records to verify our results. Preliminary results show that the three hurricanes caused flooding condition over

  6. Race, Income Inequality, and Impervious Surfaces in Relation to Flooding Associated with Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sherbinin, A. M.; Mills, J.; Borkovska, O.

    2017-12-01

    Differential vulnerability is a concept that suggests that certain demographic groups - the poor, less educated, or minorities - are likely to be more impacted by climate extremes such as floods owing to their higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity. Differential exposure represents the concept that these same groups may be more highly exposed to flood events by virtue of their residing in less desirable, low-lying neighborhoods with higher percentages of impervious surface cover. This paper tests the hypothesis that poor communities of color were differentially exposed to flood risks in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, which struck Houston, Texas in August 2017. We explore the spatial relationship among census tracts with high percentages of low income communities of color, those with high percentages of impervious surface, and those most impacted by floods. We incorporat datasets disseminated by the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Application Center (SEDAC) - the Global Man-made Impervious Surface (GMIS) data set and the U.S. Census Grids 2010 - together with the American Community Survey (ACS) 2011-2015 and flood extent and depth data from FEMA. Preliminary analysis suggests that predominantly non-white neighborhoods have higher percentages of impervious surface cover, but that impervious surface cover is negatively correlated with flood risk. This paper will situate these findings in the context of a larger body of research exploring differential exposure to flood risks during Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, as well as differential exposure to extreme heat in urban environments in Houston and beyond.

  7. Meteorological and engineering approach to the regionalization of tornado wind criteria for nuclear power plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-01-01

    Data on general meteorological factors governing tornado frequency and intensity in various locations throughout the USA are revised. A climatological model of multiple outbreak and long track tornadoes and the relation between the speed of a hurricane and the frequency of tornado occurrence over land and sea are discussed. Data from a structural engineering assessment of tornado damage are summarized and applications of the data for the development of design criteria for buildings and nuclear power plants to minimize tornado damage are suggested. It was concluded that it is very difficult to predict tornado risk and alternate methods and areas of study are presented for consideration

  8. Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 2: Integration of Heterogeneous Earth Observation Data for Comparative Analysis with High-Resolution Inundation Boundaries Reconstructed from Flood2D-GPU Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, C.; Sava, E.; Cervone, G.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey has been noted as the wettest cyclone on record for the US as well as the most destructive (so far) for the 2017 hurricane season. An entire year worth of rainfall occurred over the course of a few days. The city of Houston was greatly impacted as the storm lingered over the city for five days, causing a record-breaking 50+ inches of rain as well as severe damage from flooding. Flood model simulations were performed to reconstruct the event in order to better understand, assess, and predict flooding dynamics for the future. Additionally, number of remote sensing platforms, and on ground instruments that provide near real-time data have also been used for flood identification, monitoring, and damage assessment. Although both flood models and remote sensing techniques are able to identify inundated areas, rapid and accurate flood prediction at a high spatio-temporal resolution remains a challenge. Thus a methodological approach which fuses the two techniques can help to better validate what is being modeled and observed. Recent advancements in data fusion techniques of remote sensing with near real time heterogeneous datasets have allowed emergency responders to more efficiently extract increasingly precise and relevant knowledge from the available information. In this work the use of multiple sources of contributed data, coupled with remotely sensed and open source geospatial datasets is demonstrated to generate an understanding of potential damage assessment for the floods after Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. The feasibility of integrating multiple sources at different temporal and spatial resolutions into hydrodynamic models for flood inundation simulations is assessed. Furthermore the contributed datasets are compared against a reconstructed flood extent generated from the Flood2D-GPU model.

  9. Automatic urban debris zone extraction from post-hurricane very high-resolution satellite and aerial imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shasha Jiang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Automated remote sensing methods have not gained widespread usage for damage assessment after hurricane events, especially for low-rise buildings, such as individual houses and small businesses. Hurricane wind, storm surge with waves, and inland flooding have unique damage signatures, further complicating the development of robust automated assessment methodologies. As a step toward realizing automated damage assessment for multi-hazard hurricane events, this paper presents a mono-temporal image classification methodology that quickly and accurately differentiates urban debris from non-debris areas using post-event images. Three classification approaches are presented: spectral, textural, and combined spectral–textural. The methodology is demonstrated for Gulfport, Mississippi, using IKONOS panchromatic satellite and NOAA aerial colour imagery collected after 2005 Hurricane Katrina. The results show that multivariate texture information significantly improves debris class detection performance by decreasing the confusion between debris and other land cover types, and the extracted debris zone accurately captures debris distribution. Additionally, the extracted debris boundary is approximately equivalent regardless of imagery type, demonstrating the flexibility and robustness of the debris mapping methodology. While the test case presents results for hurricane hazards, the proposed methodology is generally developed and expected to be effective in delineating debris zones for other natural hazards, including tsunamis, tornadoes, and earthquakes.

  10. Impact of tornadoes on hospital admissions for acute cardiovascular events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-Palacios, Federico; Casanegra, Ana Isabel; Shapiro, Alan; Phan, Minh; Hawkins, Beau; Li, Ji; Stoner, Julie; Tafur, Alfonso

    2015-11-01

    There is a paucity of data describing cardiovascular events after tornado outbreaks. We proposed to study the effects of tornadoes on the incidence of cardiovascular events at a tertiary care institution. Hospital admission records from a single center situated in a tornado-prone area three months before and after a 2013 tornado outbreak were abstracted. To control for seasonal variation, we also abstracted data from the same period of the prior year (control). Hospital admissions for cardiovascular events (CVEs) including acute myocardial infarction, stroke and venous thromboembolism (VTE) were summated by zip codes, and compared by time period. There were 22,607 admissions analyzed, of which 6,705 (30%), 7,980 (35%), and 7,922 (35%) were during the pre-tornado, post-tornado, and control time frames, respectively. There were 344 CVE in the controls, 317 CVE in pre-tornado and 364 CVEs in post tornado periods. There was no difference in the prevalence of CVE during the post-tornado season compared with the control (PPR=1.05 95% CI: 0.91 to 1.21, p=0.50) or the pre-tornado season (PPR=0.96, 95% CI: 0.83 to 1.21, p=0.63). In conclusion, tornado outbreaks did not increase the prevalence of cardiovascular events. In contrast to the effect of hurricanes, implementation of a healthcare policy change directed toward the early treatment and prevention of cardiovascular events after tornadoes does not seem warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Forecasted Flood Depth Grids Providing Early Situational Awareness to FEMA during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M.; Longenecker, H. E., III

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 hurricane season brought the unprecedented landfall of three Category 4 hurricanes (Harvey, Irma and Maria). FEMA is responsible for coordinating the federal response and recovery efforts for large disasters such as these. FEMA depends on timely and accurate depth grids to estimate hazard exposure, model damage assessments, plan flight paths for imagery acquisition, and prioritize response efforts. In order to produce riverine or coastal depth grids based on observed flooding, the methodology requires peak crest water levels at stream gauges, tide gauges, high water marks, and best-available elevation data. Because peak crest data isn't available until the apex of a flooding event and high water marks may take up to several weeks for field teams to collect for a large-scale flooding event, final observed depth grids are not available to FEMA until several days after a flood has begun to subside. Within the last decade NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) has implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS), a web-based suite of accurate forecast products that provide hydrograph forecasts at over 3,500 stream gauge locations across the United States. These forecasts have been newly implemented into an automated depth grid script tool, using predicted instead of observed water levels, allowing FEMA access to flood hazard information up to 3 days prior to a flooding event. Water depths are calculated from the AHPS predicted flood stages and are interpolated at 100m spacing along NHD hydrolines within the basin of interest. A water surface elevation raster is generated from these water depths using an Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation. Then, elevation (USGS NED 30m) is subtracted from the water surface elevation raster so that the remaining values represent the depth of predicted flooding above the ground surface. This automated process requires minimal user input and produced forecasted depth grids that were comparable to post

  12. Hydrodynamic models of the possibility of flooding Zaporizhya NPP site beyond the extreme earthquakes and hurricanes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skalozubov, V.I.; Gablaya, T.V.; Vashchenko, V.N.; Gerasimenko, T.V.; Kozlov, I.L.

    2014-01-01

    We propose a hydrodynamic model of possible flooding of the industrial site at Zaporozh'e NPP design basis earthquakes and hurricane. In contrast to the quasi-stationary approach of stress tests in the proposed model takes into account the dynamic nature of the processes of flooding, as well as a direct impact of external influences on extreme Kakhovske reservoir. As a result of hydrodynamic modeling, the possible conditions and criteria for the flooding of the industrial site at Zaporozhe extreme external influences

  13. Monitoring Inland Storm Surge and Flooding from Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

    2006-01-01

    Pressure transducers (sensors) and high-water marks were used to document the inland water levels related to storm surge generated by Hurricane Rita in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. On September 22-23, 2005, an experimental monitoring network of sensors was deployed at 33 sites over an area of about 4,000 square miles to record the timing, extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding. Sensors were programmed to record date and time, temperature, and barometric or water pressure. Water pressure was corrected for changes in barometric pressure and salinity. Elevation surveys using global-positioning systems and differential levels were used to relate all storm-surge water-level data, reference marks, benchmarks, sensor measuring points, and high-water marks to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). The resulting data indicated that storm-surge water levels over 14 feet above NAVD 88 occurred at three locations, and rates of water-level rise greater than 5 feet per hour occurred at three locations near the Louisiana coast.

  14. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma - High-Resolution Flood Mapping and Monitoring from Sentinel SAR with the Depolarization Reduction Algorithm for Global Observations of InundatioN (DRAGON)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, S. V.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Nguyen, D. T.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey inflicted historical catastrophic flooding across extensive regions around Houston and southeast Texas after making landfall on 25 August 2017. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requested urgent supports for flood mapping and monitoring in an emergency response to the extreme flood situation. An innovative satellite remote sensing method, called the Depolarization Reduction Algorithm for Global Observations of inundatioN (DRAGON), has been developed and implemented for use with Sentinel synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data at a resolution of 10 meters to identify, map, and monitor inundation including pre-existing water bodies and newly flooded areas. Results from this new method are hydrologically consistent and have been verified with known surface waters (e.g., coastal ocean, rivers, lakes, reservoirs, etc.), with clear-sky high-resolution WorldView images (where waves can be seen on surface water in inundated areas within a small spatial coverage), and with other flood maps from the consortium of Global Flood Partnership derived from multiple satellite datasets (including clear-sky Landsat and MODIS at lower resolutions). Figure 1 is a high-resolution (4K UHD) image of a composite inundation map for the region around Rosharon (in Brazoria County, south of Houston, Texas). This composite inundation map reveals extensive flooding on 29 August 2017 (four days after Hurricane Harvey made landfall), and the inundation was still persistent in most of the west and south of Rosharon one week later (5 September 2017) while flooding was reduced in the east of Rosharon. Hurricane Irma brought flooding to a number of areas in Florida. As of 10 September 2017, Sentinel SAR flood maps reveal inundation in the Florida Panhandle and over lowland surfaces on several islands in the Florida Keys. However, Sentinel SAR results indicate that flooding along the Florida coast was not extreme despite Irma was a Category-5 hurricane that might

  15. Miami's Tequesta Site: Could It Be a Native American Study Site For Natural Periodicities Associated With Tornados, Hurricanes, or Earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mac Dougall, Jean S.; Mc Leod, David M.; Mc Leod, Roger D.

    2002-10-01

    Florida invested in preserving the Tequesta Indians' "Stonehenge-like" site along the Miami River. Direct observation, and telecast reports, show that a strong association exists between this area and Native American place names, hurricanes, tornados, a waterspout, and other nearby phenomena. Electromagnetic stimulation of human nervous systems in areas like these, discernable by appropriately sensitive individuals when these types of events occur, could plausibly account for some correct "predictions" of events like earthquakes. Various sensory modalities may be activated there. It may be important to understand other historic aspects associated with cultural artifacts like Miami's Tequesta remains. If it also generates instrumentally detectable signals that correlate with visual, "auditory," or nerve ending "tinglings" like those cited by the psychiatrist Arthur Guirdham in books like his Obsessions, applied physicists could partly vindicate the investment and also provide a net return. Society and comparative religious study may benefit.

  16. Systematic Study of the Failure of a Light-Frame Wood Roof in a Tornado

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Standohar-Alfano

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Tornadoes are a particularly devastating natural hazard that affect communities across the United States, particularly the Midwest and South. They are unique from an engineering point-of-view due to their very low probability of occurrence but often highly destructive consequences. The 2011 season was particularly devastating to the Southeastern portion of the U.S. This paper presents a single case study of a 2012 tornado that struck a single large rural light-frame wood house with an unconventional roof system. A fragility methodology was used as a tool to probabilistically study the loss of the roof system, and bound an Enhanced Fujita (EF scale rating of the tornado. The tornado was initially rated as an EF3 tornado by the U.S. National Weather Service. However, following a detailed site inspection verified with numerical structural models, the tornado was downgraded to an EF2 tornado. As expected, the use of nail connections in a roof-to-wall connection resulted in a weaker link compared to a hurricane clip. The approach presented in this paper can be used as a supplement to the EF rating provided by U.S. National Weather Service meteorologists when unusual conditions in either the structure or surroundings exists.

  17. Mold prevention strategies and possible health effects in the aftermath of hurricanes and major floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Mary; Brown, Clive; Burkhart, Joe; Burton, Nancy; Cox-Ganser, Jean; Damon, Scott; Falk, Henry; Fridkin, Scott; Garbe, Paul; McGeehin, Mike; Morgan, Juliette; Page, Elena; Rao, Carol; Redd, Stephen; Sinks, Tom; Trout, Douglas; Wallingford, Kenneth; Warnock, David; Weissman, David

    2006-06-09

    Extensive water damage after major hurricanes and floods increases the likelihood of mold contamination in buildings. This report provides information on how to limit exposure to mold and how to identify and prevent mold-related health effects. Where uncertainties in scientific knowledge exist, practical applications designed to be protective of a person's health are presented. Evidence is included about assessing exposure, clean-up and prevention, personal protective equipment, health effects, and public health strategies and recommendations. The recommendations assume that, in the aftermath of major hurricanes or floods, buildings wet for health effects in susceptible persons regardless of the type of mold or the extent of contamination. For the majority of persons, undisturbed mold is not a substantial health hazard. Mold is a greater hazard for persons with conditions such as impaired host defenses or mold allergies. To prevent exposure that could result in adverse health effects from disturbed mold, persons should 1) avoid areas where mold contamination is obvious; 2) use environmental controls; 3) use personal protective equipment; and 4) keep hands, skin, and clothing clean and free from mold-contaminated dust. Clinical evaluation of suspected mold-related illness should follow conventional clinical guidelines. In addition, in the aftermath of extensive flooding, health-care providers should be watchful for unusual mold-related diseases. The development of a public health surveillance strategy among persons repopulating areas after extensive flooding is recommended to assess potential health effects and the effectiveness of prevention efforts. Such a surveillance program will help CDC and state and local public health officials refine the guidelines for exposure avoidance, personal protection, and clean-up and assist health departments to identify unrecognized hazards.

  18. National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... GIS International Weather Cooperative Observers Storm Spotters Tsunami Facts and Figures National Water Center WEATHER SAFETY NOAA Weather Radio StormReady Heat Lightning Hurricanes Thunderstorms Tornadoes Rip Currents Floods Winter Weather ...

  19. The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) Urban Radar Network: Enhancing Resilience in the Presence of Floods, Tornadoes, Hail and High Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra*, Chandrasekar V.; the full DFW Team

    2015-04-01

    Currently, the National Weather Service (NWS) Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) provides observations updated every five-six minutes across the United States. However, at the maximum NEXRAD operating range of 230 km, the 0.5 degree radar beam (lowest tilt) height is about 5.4 km above ground level (AGL) because of the effect of Earth curvature. Consequently, much of the lower atmosphere (1-3 km AGL) cannot be observed by the NEXRAD. To overcome the fundamental coverage limitations of today's weather surveillance radars, and improve the spatial and temporal resolution issues, at urban scale, the National Science Foundation Engineering Research Center (NSF-ERC) for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) has embarked the development of Dallas-Fort worth (DFW) urban remote sensing network to conduct high-resolution sensing in the lower atmosphere for a metropolitan environment, communicate high resolution observations and nowcasting of severe weather including flash floods, hail storms and high wind events. Being one of the largest inland metropolitan areas in the U.S., the DFW Metroplex is home to over 6.5 million people by 2012 according to the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG). It experiences a wide range of natural weather hazards, including urban flash flood, high wind, tornado, and hail, etc. Successful monitoring of the rapid changing meteorological conditions in such a region is necessary for emergency management and decision making. Therefore, it is an ideal location to investigate the impacts of hazardous weather phenomena, to enhance resilience in an urban setting and demonstrate the CASA concept in a densely populated urban environment. The DFW radar network consists of 8 dual-polarization X-band weather radars and standard NEXRAD S-band radar, covering the greater DFW metropolitan region. This paper will present high resolution observation of tornado, urban flood, hail storm and damaging wind event all within the

  20. Robust flood area detection using a L-band synthetic aperture radar: Preliminary application for Florida, the U.S. affected by Hurricane Irma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagai, H.; Ohki, M.; Abe, T.

    2017-12-01

    Urgent crisis response for a hurricane-induced flood needs urgent providing of a flood map covering a broad region. However, there is no standard threshold values for automatic flood identification from pre-and-post images obtained by satellite-based synthetic aperture radars (SARs). This problem could hamper prompt data providing for operational uses. Furthermore, one pre-flood SAR image does not always represent potential water surfaces and river flows especially in tropical flat lands which are greatly influenced by seasonal precipitation cycle. We are, therefore, developing a new method of flood mapping using PALSAR-2, an L-band SAR, which is less affected by temporal surface changes. Specifically, a mean-value image and a standard-deviation image are calculated from a series of pre-flood SAR images. It is combined with a post-flood SAR image to obtain normalized backscatter amplitude difference (NoBADi), with which a difference between a post-flood image and a mean-value image is divided by a standard-deviation image to emphasize anomalous water extents. Flooding areas are then automatically obtained from the NoBADi images as lower-value pixels avoiding potential water surfaces. We applied this method to PALSAR-2 images acquired on Sept. 8, 10, and 12, 2017, covering flooding areas in a central region of Dominican Republic and west Florida, the U.S. affected by Hurricane Irma. The output flooding outlines are validated with flooding areas manually delineated from high-resolution optical satellite images, resulting in higher consistency and less uncertainty than previous methods (i.e., a simple pre-and-post flood difference and pre-and-post coherence changes). The NoBADi method has a great potential to obtain a reliable flood map for future flood hazards, not hampered by cloud cover, seasonal surface changes, and "casual" thresholds in the flood identification process.

  1. USGS environmental characterization of flood sediments left in the New Orleans area after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2005--Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Meeker, Gregory P.; Lovelace, John K.; Rosenbauer, Robert J.; Lamothe, Paul J.; Furlong, Edward T.; Demas, Charles R.

    2006-01-01

    Introduction: The flooding in the greater New Orleans area that resulted from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in September, 2005, left behind accumulations of sediments up to many centimeters thick on streets, lawns, parking lots, and other flat surfaces. These flood sediment deposits have been the focus of extensive study by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality (LDEQ) due to concerns that the sediments may contain elevated levels of heavy metals, organic contaminants, and microbes. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is characterizing a limited number of flood sediment samples that were collected on September 15-16 and October 6-7, 2005, from the greater New Orleans area by personnel from the USGS Louisiana Water Science Center in Baton Rouge. Small samples (< 3 pints each) of wet to dry flood sediment were collected from 11 localities around downtown New Orleans on September 15, 2005, and two large samples (40 pints each) of wet flood sediment were collected from the Chalmette area on September 16. Twelve additional samples (8-10 pints each) were collected from New Orleans, Slidell, Rigolets, and Violet on October 6 and 7. The USGS characterization studies of these flood sediments are designed to produce data and interpretations regarding how the sediments and any contained contaminants may respond to environmental processes. This information will be of use to cleanup managers and DoI/USGS scientists assessing environmental impacts of the hurricanes and subsequent cleanup activities.

  2. Public Use of Online Hydrology Information for Harris County and Houston, Texas, during Hurricane Harvey and Suggested Improvement for Future Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilly, M. R.; Feditova, A.; Levine, K.; Giardino, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Harris County Flood Control District has an impressive amount of information available for the public related to flood management and response. During Hurricane Harvey, this information was used by the authors to help address daily questions from family and friends living in the Houston area. Common near-real-time reporting data included precipitation and water levels. Maps included locations of data stations, stream or bayou conditions (in bank, out of bank) and watershed or drainage boundaries. In general, the data station reporting and online information was updating well throughout the hurricane and post-flooding period. Only a few of the data reporting stations had problems with water level sensor measurements. The overall information was helpful to hydrologists and floodplain managers. The online information could not easily answer all common questions residents may have during a flood event. Some of the more common questions were how to use the water-level information to know the potential extent of flooding and relative location of flooding to the location of residents. To help address the questions raised during the flooding on how to use the available water level data, we used Google Earth to get lot and intersection locations to help show the relative differences between nearby water-level stations and residences of interest. The reported resolution of the Google Earth elevation data is 1-foot. To help confirm the use of this data, we compared Google Earth approximate elevations with reported Harris County Floodplain Reference Mark individual reports. This method helped verify we could use the Google Earth information for approximate comparisons. We also faced questions on what routes to take if evacuation was needed, and where to go to get to higher ground elevations. Google Earth again provided a helpful and easy to use interface to look at road and intersection elevations and develop suggested routes for family and friends to take to avoid low

  3. Brief communication "Hurricane Irene: a wake-up call for New York City?"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. J. H. Aerts

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The weakening of Irene from a Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm resulted in less damage in New York City (NYC than initially was anticipated. It is widely recognized that the storm surge and associated flooding could have been much more severe. In a recent study, we showed that a direct hit to the city from a hurricane may expose an enormous number of people to flooding. A major hurricane has the potential to cause large-scale damage in NYC. The city's resilience to flooding can be increased by improving and integrating flood insurance, flood zoning, and building code policies.

  4. Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods are common in the United States. Weather such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, hurricanes, or tsunamis can ... is breached, or when a dam breaks. Flash floods, which can develop quickly, often have a dangerous ...

  5. Statistics of severe tornadoes and severe tornado outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. D. Malamud

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The standard measures of the intensity of a tornado in the USA and many other countries are the Fujita and Enhanced Fujita scales. These scales are based on the damage that a tornado causes. Another measure of the strength of a tornado is its path length of touchdown, L. In this study we consider severe tornadoes, which we define as L≥10 km, in the continental USA (USA Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Database. We find that for the period 1982–2011, for individual severe tornadoes (L≥10 km: (i There is a strong linear scaling between the number of severe tornadoes in a year and their total path length in that year. (ii The cumulative frequency path length data suggests that, not taking into account any changing trends over time, we would expect in a given year (on average one severe tornado with a path length L≥115 km and in a decade (on average one severe tornado with a path length L≥215 km. (iii The noncumulative frequency-length statistics of severe tornado touchdown path lengths, 20<L<200 km, is well approximated by an inverse power-law relationship with exponent near 3. We then take the total path length of severe tornadoes in a convective day (12:00–12:00 UTC, LD, as a measure of the strength of a 24-h USA tornado outbreak. We find that: (i For 1982–2011, the number of severe tornadoes in a USA convective day outbreak has a strong power-law relationship (exponent 0.80 on the convective day total path length, LD. (ii For 1952–2011, the cumulative frequency path length data for severe tornado outbreaks suggests that we would expect in a given year (on average one daily severe tornado outbreak with total path length LD≥480 km and in a decade (on average one daily severe tornado outbreak with a total path length LD≥1200 km. (iii For 1982–2011, the noncumulative frequency-length statistics of tornado

  6. Performance of Oil Infrastructure during Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernier, C.; Kameshwar, S.; Padgett, J.

    2017-12-01

    Three major refining centers - Corpus Christi, Houston, and Beaumont/Port Arthur - were affected during Hurricane Harvey. Damage to oil infrastructure, especially aboveground storage tanks (ASTs), caused the release of more than a million gallons of hazardous chemicals in the environment. The objective of this presentation is to identify and gain a better understanding of the different damage mechanisms that occurred during Harvey in order to avoid similar failures during future hurricane events. First, a qualitative description of the damage suffered by ASTs during Hurricane Harvey is presented. Analysis of aerial imagery and incident reports indicate that almost all spills were caused by rainfall and the associated flooding. The largest spill was caused by two large ASTs that floated due to flooding in the Houston Ship Channel releasing 500,000 gallons of gasoline. The vulnerability of ASTs subjected to flooding was already well known and documented from previous storm events. In addition to flooding, Harvey also exposed the vulnerability of ASTs with external floating roof to extreme rainfall; more than 15 floating roofs sank or tilted due to rain water accumulation on them, releasing pollutants in the atmosphere. Secondly, recent fragility models developed by the authors are presented which allow structural vulnerability assessment of floating roofs during rainfall events and ASTs during flood events. The fragility models are then coupled with Harvey rainfall and flood empirical data to identify the conditions (i.e.: internal liquid height or density, drainage system design and efficiency, etc.) that could have led to the observed failures during Hurricane Harvey. Finally, the conditions causing tank failures are studied to propose mitigation measures to prevent future AST failures during severe storm, flood, or rainfall events.

  7. Tornado lift

    OpenAIRE

    Ivanchin, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    It is shown that one of the causes for tornado is Tornado Lift. At increasing vortex diameter its kinetic energy decreases to keep the moment of momentum constant. A kinetic energy gradient of such vortex is Tornado Lift. Evaluation shows that contribution of Tornado Lift in air lifting in a tornado is comparable to buoyancy according to the order of magnitude.

  8. Mold exposure and health effects following hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbeau, Deborah N; Grimsley, L Faye; White, LuAnn E; El-Dahr, Jane M; Lichtveld, Maureen

    2010-01-01

    The extensive flooding in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita created conditions ideal for indoor mold growth, raising concerns about the possible adverse health effects associated with indoor mold exposure. Studies evaluating the levels of indoor and outdoor molds in the months following the hurricanes found high levels of mold growth. Homes with greater flood damage, especially those with >3 feet of indoor flooding, demonstrated higher levels of mold growth compared with homes with little or no flooding. Water intrusion due to roof damage was also associated with mold growth. However, no increase in the occurrence of adverse health outcomes has been observed in published reports to date. This article considers reasons why studies of mold exposure after the hurricane do not show a greater health impact.

  9. Large-scale Vertical Motions, Intensity Change and Precipitation Associated with Land falling Hurricane Katrina over the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, S. R.; Kwembe, T.; Zhang, Z.

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the possible relationship between the large- scale heat fluxes and intensity change associated with the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. After reaching the category 5 intensity on August 28th , 2005 over the central Gulf of Mexico, Katrina weekend to category 3 before making landfall (August 29th , 2005) on the Louisiana coast with the maximum sustained winds of over 110 knots. We also examined the vertical motions associated with the intensity change of the hurricane. The data for Convective Available Potential Energy for water vapor (CAPE), sea level pressure and wind speed were obtained from the Atmospheric Soundings, and NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC), respectively for the period August 24 to September 3, 2005. We also computed vertical motions using CAPE values. The study showed that the large-scale heat fluxes reached maximum (7960W/m2) with the central pressure 905mb. The Convective Available Potential Energy and the vertical motions peaked 3-5 days before landfall. The large atmospheric vertical motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorm, tornadoes, storm surge and floods Numerical model (WRF/ARW) with data assimilations have been used for this research to investigate the model's performances on hurricane tracks and intensities associated with the hurricane Katrina, which began to strengthen until reaching Category 5 on 28 August 2005. The model was run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 hr periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model output was compared with the observations and is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track associated with hurricane Katrina.

  10. Introduction to Plate Boundaries and Natural Hazards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duarte, João C.; Schellart, Wouter P.

    2016-01-01

    A great variety of natural hazards occur on Earth, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, landslides, floods, fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, and avalanches. The most destructive of these hazards, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions, are mostly associated with tectonic plate

  11. Dynamic inundation mapping of Hurricane Harvey flooding in the Houston metro area using hyper-resolution modeling and quantitative image reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, S. J.; Lee, J. H.; Lee, S.; Zhang, Y.; Seo, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey was one of the most extreme weather events in Texas history and left significant damages in the Houston and adjoining coastal areas. To understand better the relative impact to urban flooding of extreme amount and spatial extent of rainfall, unique geography, land use and storm surge, high-resolution water modeling is necessary such that natural and man-made components are fully resolved. In this presentation, we reconstruct spatiotemporal evolution of inundation during Hurricane Harvey using hyper-resolution modeling and quantitative image reanalysis. The two-dimensional urban flood model used is based on dynamic wave approximation and 10 m-resolution terrain data, and is forced by the radar-based multisensor quantitative precipitation estimates. The model domain includes Buffalo, Brays, Greens and White Oak Bayous in Houston. The model is simulated using hybrid parallel computing. To evaluate dynamic inundation mapping, we combine various qualitative crowdsourced images and video footages with LiDAR-based terrain data.

  12. Hurricane Impacts on Small Island Communities: Case study of Hurricane Matthew on Great Exuma, The Bahamas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan Sealey, Kathleen; Bowleg, John

    2017-04-01

    Great Exuma has been a UNESCO Eco-hydrology Project Site with a focus on coastal restoration and flood management. Great Exuma and its largest settlement, George Town, support a population of just over 8.000 people on an island dominated by extensive coastal wetlands. The Victoria Pond Eco-Hydrology project restored flow and drainage to highly-altered coastal wetlands to reduce flooding of the built environment as well as regain ecological function. The project was designed to show the value of a protected wetland and coastal environment within a populated settlement; demonstrating that people can live alongside mangroves and value "green" infrastructure for flood protection. The restoration project was initiated after severe storm flooding in 2007 with Tropical Storm Noel. In 2016, the passing of Hurricane Matthew had unprecedented impacts on the coastal communities of Great Exuma, challenging past practices in restoration and flood prevention. This talk reviews the loss of natural capital (for example, fish populations, mangroves, salt water inundation) from Hurricane Matthew based on a rapid response survey of Great Exuma. The surprisingly find was the impact of storm surge on low-lying areas used primarily for personal farms and small-scale agriculture. Although women made up the overwhelming majority of people who attended Coastal Restoration workshops, women were most adversely impacted by the recent hurricane flooding with the loss of their small low-lying farms and gardens. Although increasing culverts in mangrove creeks in two areas did reduce building flood damage, the low-lying areas adjacent to mangroves, mostly ephemeral freshwater wetlands, were inundated with saltwater, and seasonal crops in these areas were destroyed. These ephemeral wetlands were designed as part of the wetland flooding system, it was not known how important these small areas were to artisanal farming on Great Exuma. The size and scope of Hurricane Matthew passing through the

  13. Characterization of peak streamflows and flood inundation at selected areas in North Carolina following Hurricane Matthew, October 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musser, Jonathan W.; Watson, Kara M.; Gotvald, Anthony J.

    2017-05-05

    The passage of Hurricane Matthew through central and eastern North Carolina during October 7–9, 2016, brought heavy rainfall, which resulted in major flooding. More than 15 inches of rain was recorded in some areas. More than 600 roads were closed, including Interstates 95 and 40, and nearly 99,000 structures were affected by floodwaters. Immediately following the flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey documented 267 high-water marks, of which 254 were surveyed. North Carolina Emergency Management documented and surveyed 353 high-water marks. Using a subset of these highwater marks, six flood-inundation maps were created for hard-hit communities. Digital datasets of the inundation areas, study reach boundary, and water-depth rasters are available for download. In addition, peak gage-height data, peak streamflow data, and annual exceedance probabilities (in percent) were determined for 24 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages located near the heavily flooded communities.

  14. 78 FR 54743 - National Preparedness Month, 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-06

    ... like hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods to shootings, cyber incidents, and even acts of terrorism. While... Preparedness Month. I encourage all Americans to recognize the importance of preparedness and work together to enhance our national security, resilience, and readiness. [[Page 54744

  15. Tame a Tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Jim

    2003-01-01

    The author was looking for a demonstration that actually used wind shear forces to set up the tornado effect when he saw a video produced by The Tornado Project called "Secrets of the Tornado". This video not only shows dozens of actual tornadoes, but also gives construction techniques for several different styles of tornado boxes that are…

  16. Flood Hazards - A National Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2006-01-01

    In the late summer of 2005, the remarkable flooding brought by Hurricane Katrina, which caused more than $200 billion in losses, constituted the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. However, even in typical years, flooding causes billions of dollars in damage and threatens lives and property in every State. Natural processes, such as hurricanes, weather systems, and snowmelt, can cause floods. Failure of levees and dams and inadequate drainage in urban areas can also result in flooding. On average, floods kill about 140 people each year and cause $6 billion in property damage. Although loss of life to floods during the past half-century has declined, mostly because of improved warning systems, economic losses have continued to rise due to increased urbanization and coastal development.

  17. Children and Natural Disasters: A Primer for School Psychologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Linda; Oehler-Stinnett, Judy

    2006-01-01

    Worldwide children are impacted by natural disasters, including hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, earthquakes, wildfires, landslides and sandstorms, winter and severe storms, heat waves, volcanoes and tsunamis. School psychologists should understand natural disaster effects, such as economic loss, relocation and health concerns and mental health…

  18. Significant Wave Height under Hurricane Irma derived from SAR Sentinel-1 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehner, S.; Pleskachevsky, A.; Soloviev, A.; Fujimura, A.

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was with three major hurricanes a particular active one. The Category 4 hurricane Irma made landfall on the Florida Keys on September 10th 2017 and was imaged several times by ESAs Sentinel-1 satellites in C-band and the TerraSAR-X satellite in X-band. The high resolution TerraSAR-X imagery showed the footprint of individual tornadoes on the sea surface together with their turbulent wake imaged as a dark line due to increased turbulence. The water-cloud structures of the tornadoes are analyzed and their sea surface structure is compared to optical and IR cloud imagery. An estimate of the wind field using standard XMOD algorithms is provided, although saturating under the strong rain and high wind speed conditions. Imaging the hurricanes by space radar gives the opportunity to observe the sea surface and thus measure the wind field and the sea state under hurricane conditions through the clouds even in this severe weather, although rain features, which are usually not observed in SAR become visible due to damping effects. The Copernicus Sentinel-1 A and B satellites, which are operating in C-band provided several images of the sea surface under hurricane Irma, Jose and Maria. The data were acquired daily and converted into measurements of sea surface wind field u10 and significant wave height Hs over a swath width of 280km about 1000 km along the orbit. The wind field of the hurricanes as derived by CMOD is provided by NOAA operationally on their web server. In the hurricane cases though the wind speed saturates at 20 m/sec and is thus too low in the area of hurricane wind speed. The technique to derive significant wave height is new though and does not show any calibration issues. This technique provides for the first time measurements of the areal coverage and distribution of the ocean wave height as caused by a hurricane on SAR wide swath images. Wave heights up to 10 m were measured under the forward quadrant of the hurricane

  19. Flood protection of Crystal River Unit 3 Nuclear Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noble, R.M.; Simpson, B.

    1975-01-01

    To satisfy U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) safety criteria, a required evaluation of the worst site-related flood is performed for the Crystal River Plant, located on the Gulf Coast of Florida, the probable maximum stillwater flood levels are likely to be a result of the probable maximum hurricane. Flood protection requirements for the Crystal River Plant are determined by considering the most severe combination of probable maximum hurricane parameters for the Gulf Coast Region. These parameters are used as input to a model of hurricane surge generation and attendant wave activity in order to determine the maximum flood levels at the Crystal River Plant. 4 refs

  20. The impact of local land subsidence and global sea level rise on flood severity in Houston-Galveston caused by Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, M. M.; Shirzaei, M.

    2017-12-01

    Category-4 Hurricane Harvey had devastating socioeconomic impacts to Houston, with flooding far past the 100-year flood zones published by FEMA. In recent decades, frequency and intensity of coastal flooding are escalating, correlated with sea level rise (SLR). Moreover, Local land subsidence (LLS) due to groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and natural compaction changes surface elevation and slope, potentially altering drainage patterns. GPS data show a mm broad co-cyclonic subsidence due to elastic loading from the water mass measured by GPS, which is inverted to solve for the total fluid volume of 2.73x1010 m3. We additionally investigate the joint impact of an SLR and pre-cyclonic LLS on the flooding of Houston-Galveston during Hurricane Harvey. We examine vertical land motion within North American Vertical Datum 2012 for the period 2007 until the cyclone by investigating SAR imaged acquired by ALOS and Sentinel-1A/B radar satellites combined with GPS data. We find patchy, LLS bowls resulting in sinks where floodwater can collect. We map the flooding extent by comparing amplitudes of Sentinal1-A/B pixels' backscattered radar signal from pre- and post-Harvey acquisitions and estimate 782 km2 are submerged within the area of 3478 km2 of pixels covered by Sentinel frame. Comparing with the LLS map, 89% of the flooded pixels exhibit -3 mm/yr or greater vertical motion. Flooding attributed to the storm surge is determined with high-resolution LiDAR digital elevation models (DEM) and a 0.75 m storm tide inundation model, which engulfs only 195 km2 and nearby the shorelines. We estimate future inundation hazard by combining LiDAR DEMs with our InSAR derived subsidence map, projecting LLS rates forward 100 years, and modeling projected SLR from 0.4 to 1.2 meters. Were subsidence to continue unabated, the total flooded area is 281 km2 with a 0.4 m and 394 km2 with a 1.2 m SLR. Next, we add a modest storm tide (0.752 m), which increases the flooded area to 389 - 480

  1. The Tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, John T.

    1984-01-01

    Although tornadoes have been one of the most elusive phenomena in meteorology, new observation techniques are now revealing how they are spawned by thunderstorms. Tornado structure and formation, thunderstorms, tornadic thunderstorms, and the evolution and structure of such thunderstorms are considered. Why the Midwest has frequent tornadoes is…

  2. Mapping the Recent US Hurricanes Triggered Flood Events in Near Real Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, X.; Lazin, R.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Brakenridge, G. R.

    2017-12-01

    Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) observations is the only reliable remote sensing data source to map flood inundation during severe weather events. Unfortunately, since state-of-art data processing algorithms cannot meet the automation and quality standard of a near-real-time (NRT) system, quality controlled inundation mapping by SAR currently depends heavily on manual processing, which limits our capability to quickly issue flood inundation maps at global scale. Specifically, most SAR-based inundation mapping algorithms are not fully automated, while those that are automated exhibit severe over- and/or under-detection errors that limit their potential. These detection errors are primarily caused by the strong overlap among the SAR backscattering probability density functions (PDF) of different land cover types. In this study, we tested a newly developed NRT SAR-based inundation mapping system, named Radar Produced Inundation Diary (RAPID), using Sentinel-1 dual polarized SAR data over recent flood events caused by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria (2017). The system consists of 1) self-optimized multi-threshold classification, 2) over-detection removal using land-cover information and change detection, 3) under-detection compensation, and 4) machine-learning based correction. Algorithm details are introduced in another poster, H53J-1603. Good agreements were obtained by comparing the result from RAPID with visual interpretation of SAR images and manual processing from Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) (See Figure 1). Specifically, the over- and under-detections that is typically noted in automated methods is significantly reduced to negligible levels. This performance indicates that RAPID can address the automation and accuracy issues of current state-of-art algorithms and has the potential to apply operationally on a number of satellite SAR missions, such as SWOT, ALOS, Sentinel etc. RAPID data can support many applications such as rapid assessment of damage

  3. Analysis of storm-tide impacts from Hurricane Sandy in New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Christopher E.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Hearn, Paul P.; Rahav, Ami N.; Behrens, Riley; Finkelstein, Jason S.; Monti, Jack; Simonson, Amy E.

    2015-07-21

    The hybrid cyclone-nor’easter known as Hurricane Sandy affected the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States during October 28-30, 2012, causing extensive coastal flooding. Prior to storm landfall, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network from Virginia to Maine to record the storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Sandy. This sensor network augmented USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent monitoring sites that also documented storm surge. Continuous data from these networks were supplemented by an extensive post-storm high-water-mark (HWM) flagging and surveying campaign. The sensor deployment and HWM campaign were conducted under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The need for hydrologic interpretation of monitoring data to assist in flood-damage analysis and future flood mitigation prompted the current analysis of Hurricane Sandy by the USGS under this FEMA mission assignment.

  4. An Integrated Ensemble-Based Operational Framework to Predict Urban Flooding: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, F.; Ramaswamy, V.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A. F.; Wang, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Advances in computational resources and modeling techniques are opening the path to effectively integrate existing complex models. In the context of flood prediction, recent extreme events have demonstrated the importance of integrating components of the hydrosystem to better represent the interactions amongst different physical processes and phenomena. As such, there is a pressing need to develop holistic and cross-disciplinary modeling frameworks that effectively integrate existing models and better represent the operative dynamics. This work presents a novel Hydrologic-Hydraulic-Hydrodynamic Ensemble (H3E) flood prediction framework that operationally integrates existing predictive models representing coastal (New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System, NYHOPS), hydrologic (US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Modeling System, HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (2-dimensional River Analysis System, HEC-RAS) components. The state-of-the-art framework is forced with 125 ensemble meteorological inputs from numerical weather prediction models including the Global Ensemble Forecast System, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) and the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM). The framework produces, within a 96-hour forecast horizon, on-the-fly Google Earth flood maps that provide critical information for decision makers and emergency preparedness managers. The utility of the framework was demonstrated by retrospectively forecasting an extreme flood event, hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack watersheds (New Jersey, USA). Hurricane Sandy caused significant damage to a number of critical facilities in this area including the New Jersey Transit's main storage and maintenance facility. The results of this work demonstrate that ensemble based frameworks provide improved flood predictions and useful information about associated uncertainties, thus

  5. Hurricane Mitch: Peak Discharge for Selected River Reachesin Honduras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Mark E.; Phillips, Jeffrey V.; Spahr, Norman E.

    2002-01-01

    Hurricane Mitch began as a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea on 22 October 1998. By 26 October, Mitch had strengthened to a Category 5 storm as defined by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (National Climate Data Center, 1999a), and on 27 October was threatening the northern coast of Honduras (fig. 1). After making landfall 2 days later (29 October), the storm drifted south and west across Honduras, wreaking destruction throughout the country before reaching the Guatemalan border on 31 October. According to the National Climate Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (National Climate Data Center, 1999b), Hurricane Mitch ranks among the five strongest storms on record in the Atlantic Basin in terms of its sustained winds, barometric pressure, and duration. Hurricane Mitch also was one of the worst Atlantic storms in terms of loss of life and property. The regionwide death toll was estimated to be more than 9,000; thousands of people were reported missing. Economic losses in the region were more than $7.5 billion (U.S. Agency for International Development, 1999). Honduras suffered the most widespread devastation during the storm. More than 5,000 deaths, and economic losses of more than $4 billion, were reported by the Government of Honduras. Honduran officials estimated that Hurricane Mitch destroyed 50 years of economic development. In addition to the human and economic losses, intense flooding and landslides scarred the Honduran landscape - hydrologic and geomorphologic processes throughout the country likely will be affected for many years. As part of the U.S. Government's response to the disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted post-flood measurements of peak discharge at 16 river sites throughout Honduras (fig. 2). Such measurements, termed 'indirect' measurements, are used to determine peak flows when direct measurements (using current meters or dye studies, for example) cannot be made. Indirect measurements of

  6. Rise in Tornadoes, Floods Poses Risk to Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Scott

    2008-01-01

    In June the U.S Climate Change Science Program, which is sponsored by 13 government agencies, released a report saying that extreme weather like heat waves, heavy downpours, and superpowered hurricanes would be more common in the future. The timing of the report--coming just as officials in Iowa were surveying the damage from the swollen Iowa…

  7. Proposing a tornado watch scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Jonathan Brock

    This thesis provides an overview of language used in tornado safety recommendations from various sources, along with developing a rubric for scaled tornado safety recommendations, and subsequent development and testing of a tornado watch scale. The rubric is used to evaluate tornado refuge/shelter adequacy responses of Tuscaloosa residents gathered following the April 27, 2011 Tuscaloosa, Alabama EF4 tornado. There was a significant difference in the counts of refuge adequacy for Tuscaloosa residents when holding the locations during the April 27th tornado constant and comparing adequacy ratings for weak (EF0-EF1), strong (EF2-EF3) and violent (EF4-EF5) tornadoes. There was also a significant difference when comparing future tornado refuge plans of those same participants to the adequacy ratings for weak, strong and violent tornadoes. The tornado refuge rubric is then revised into a six-class, hierarchical Tornado Watch Scale (TWS) from Level 0 to Level 5 based on the likelihood of high-impact or low-impact severe weather events containing weak, strong or violent tornadoes. These levels represent maximum expected tornado intensity and include tornado safety recommendations from the tornado refuge rubric. Audio recordings similar to those used in current National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather radio communications were developed to correspond to three levels of the TWS, a current Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tornado watch and a particularly dangerous situation (PDS) tornado watch. These were then used in interviews of Alabama residents to determine how changes to the information contained in the watch statements would affect each participant's tornado safety actions and perception of event danger. Results from interview participants (n=38) indicate a strong preference (97.37%) for the TWS when compared to current tornado watch and PDS tornado watch statements. Results also show the TWS elicits more adequate safety decisions from participants

  8. Low probability flood-risk modeling for New York City.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Lin, N.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Emanuel, K.; de Moel, H.

    2013-01-01

    The devastating impact by Hurricane Sandy (2012) again showed New York City (NYC) is one of the most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding around the globe. The low-lying areas in NYC can be flooded by nor'easter storms and North Atlantic hurricanes. The few studies that have estimated potential

  9. Biogeochemical Impact of Hurricane Harvey on Texas Coastal Lagoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montagna, P.; Hu, X.; Walker, L.; Wetz, M.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey made landfall Friday 25 August 2017 as a Category 4 hurricane, which is the strongest hurricane to hit the middle Texas coast since Carla in 1961. After the wind storm and storm surge, coastal flooding occurred due to the storm lingering over Texas for four more days, dumping as much as 50" of rain near Houston, producing 1:1000 year flood event. The Texas coast is characterized by lagoons behind barrier islands, and their ecology and biogeochemistry are strongly influenced by coastal hydrology. The ensuing inflow event replaced brackish water with fresh water that was high in inorganic an organic matter, significantly enhancing respiration of coastal blue carbon, and dissolved oxygen went to zero for a long period of time. Recovery will likely take months or nearly one year.

  10. Mapping Daily and Maximum Flood Extents at 90-m Resolution During Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Using Passive Microwave Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galantowicz, J. F.; Picton, J.; Root, B.

    2017-12-01

    Passive microwave remote sensing can provided a distinct perspective on flood events by virtue of wide sensor fields of view, frequent observations from multiple satellites, and sensitivity through clouds and vegetation. During Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, we used AMSR2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, JAXA) data to map flood extents starting from the first post-storm rain-free sensor passes. Our standard flood mapping algorithm (FloodScan) derives flooded fraction from 22-km microwave data (AMSR2 or NASA's GMI) in near real time and downscales it to 90-m resolution using a database built from topography, hydrology, and Global Surface Water Explorer data and normalized to microwave data footprint shapes. During Harvey and Irma we tested experimental versions of the algorithm designed to map the maximum post-storm flood extent rapidly and made a variety of map products available immediately for use in storm monitoring and response. The maps have several unique features including spanning the entire storm-affected area and providing multiple post-storm updates as flood water shifted and receded. From the daily maps we derived secondary products such as flood duration, maximum flood extent (Figure 1), and flood depth. In this presentation, we describe flood extent evolution, maximum extent, and local details as detected by the FloodScan algorithm in the wake of Harvey and Irma. We compare FloodScan results to other available flood mapping resources, note observed shortcomings, and describe improvements made in response. We also discuss how best-estimate maps could be updated in near real time by merging FloodScan products and data from other remote sensing systems and hydrological models.

  11. More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E

    2016-12-16

    Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  12. Deaths associated with Hurricane Sandy - October-November 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-24

    On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the northeastern U.S. coastline. Sandy's tropical storm winds stretched over 900 miles (1,440 km), causing storm surges and destruction over a larger area than that affected by hurricanes with more intensity but narrower paths. Based on storm surge predictions, mandatory evacuations were ordered on October 28, including for New York City's Evacuation Zone A, the coastal zone at risk for flooding from any hurricane. By October 31, the region had 6-12 inches (15-30 cm) of precipitation, 7-8 million customers without power, approximately 20,000 persons in shelters, and news reports of numerous fatalities (Robert Neurath, CDC, personal communication, 2013). To characterize deaths related to Sandy, CDC analyzed data on 117 hurricane-related deaths captured by American Red Cross (Red Cross) mortality tracking during October 28-November 30, 2012. This report describes the results of that analysis, which found drowning was the most common cause of death related to Sandy, and 45% of drowning deaths occurred in flooded homes in Evacuation Zone A. Drowning is a leading cause of hurricane death but is preventable with advance warning systems and evacuation plans. Emergency plans should ensure that persons receive and comprehend evacuation messages and have the necessary resources to comply with them.

  13. Spatial-Temporal Clustering of Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malamud, Bruce D.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Brooks, Harold E.

    2017-04-01

    The standard measure of the intensity of a tornado is the Enhanced Fujita scale, which is based qualitatively on the damage caused by a tornado. An alternative measure of tornado intensity is the tornado path length, L. Here we examine the spatial-temporal clustering of severe tornadoes, which we define as having path lengths L ≥ 10 km. Of particular concern are tornado outbreaks, when a large number of severe tornadoes occur in a day in a restricted region. We apply a spatial-temporal clustering analysis developed for earthquakes. We take all pairs of severe tornadoes in observed and modelled outbreaks, and for each pair plot the spatial lag (distance between touchdown points) against the temporal lag (time between touchdown points). We apply our spatial-temporal lag methodology to the intense tornado outbreaks in the central United States on 26 and 27 April 2011, which resulted in over 300 fatalities and produced 109 severe (L ≥ 10 km) tornadoes. The patterns of spatial-temporal lag correlations that we obtain for the 2 days are strikingly different. On 26 April 2011, there were 45 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is dominated by a complex sequence of linear features. We associate the linear patterns with the tornadoes generated in either a single cell thunderstorm or a closely spaced cluster of single cell thunderstorms moving at a near-constant velocity. Our study of a derecho tornado outbreak of six severe tornadoes on 4 April 2011 along with modelled outbreak scenarios confirms this association. On 27 April 2011, there were 64 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is predominantly random with virtually no embedded linear patterns. We associate this pattern with a large number of interacting supercell thunderstorms generating tornadoes randomly in space and time. In order to better understand these associations, we also applied our approach to the Great Plains tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999. Careful studies by others have associated

  14. Drivers of Complexity in Humanitarian Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-04

    shaking) Volcano Volcanic eruption General Flood Flash flood Mass movement wet Landslide Mudslide Extratropical cyclone (winter storm ) Local storm Blizzard...Type Rank Count Drought 1 4 Epidemic 2 0 Viral Infectious Diseases 3 2 Cold Wave 4 2 Heat Wave 5 7 Extratropical  Cyclone (Winter  Storm ) 6 1 Tropical...catastrophe (including any hurricane, tornado, storm , high water, wind-driven water, tidal wave, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, mudslide

  15. The Seminole Serpent Warrior At Miramar, FL, Shows Settlement Locations Enabled Environmental Monitoring Reminiscent Of the Four-corners Kokopelli-like EMF Phenomena, and Related to Earthquakes, Tornados and Hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balam Matagamon, Chan; Pawa Matagamon, Sagamo

    2004-03-01

    Certain Native Americans of the past seem to have correctly deduced that significant survival information for their tradition-respecting cultures resided in EMF-based phenomena that they were monitoring. This is based upon their myths and the place or cult-hero names they bequeathed us. The sites we have located in FL have been detectable by us visually, usually by faint blue light, or by the elicitation of pin-like prickings, by somewhat intense nervous-system response, by EMF interactions with aural electrochemical systems that can elicit tinitus, and other ways. In the northeast, Cautantowit served as a harbinger of Indian summer, and appears to be another alter ego of the EMF. The Miami, FL Tequesta site along the river clearly correlates with tornado, earthquake and hurricane locations. Sites like the Mohave Deserts giant man may have had similar significance.

  16. Storms over the Urban Forest: Planning, Responding, and Regreening-- A community Guide to Natural Disaster Relief

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa L. Burban; John W. Andresen

    1994-01-01

    Natural disasters which can occur in the United States include floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, and related high-velocity winds, as well as ice storms. Preparing for these natural disasters, which strike urban forests in large cities and small communities, should involve the cooperative effort of a wide array of municipal agencies, private arboricultural companies,...

  17. Tornado Mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    The Nimbus and other weather satellites are helping determine why and how tornadoes form their structure and dynamics and ultimately how they can be prevented or artificially dissipated. NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center is also planning a cooperative research program later this year with the University of Arkansas to investigate how tornado damage occurs, and to develop tornado resistant building designs. Hardware and field-data collection are funded by the Technology Utilization Office while data reduction is being performed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

  18. Hurricane Public Health Research Center at Louisiana State University a Case of Academia Being Prepared

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Heerden, I. L.

    2006-12-01

    and chemicals in these standing flood waters would set the stage for massive disease outbreaks and prolonged chemical exposure. Before Katrina, population evacuation behavior had been determined, computer models could be used to predict storm surge flooding, government databases and GIS technology allowed documentation of at-risk areas, probable chemical and sewerage release sites had been mapped, tropical disease experts and social scientists had determined possible public health impacts; that injured and displaced animal pets and wild animals would be a major problem had been identified; and, an interactive GIS database was available for utilization in all aspects of the assessment and remediation post landfall. The value of this project has been many-fold. First, before Katrina it had a positive impact on emergency preparedness in the state of Louisiana. Second, during the hurricane Katrina catastrophe the project offered a major service to the state as the various data sets and research outputs were extensively used throughout the flooding thus reducing deaths, disease, pain, and suffering. Third, the model of academia aiding in disaster science and management is being exported nationally and internationally. Finally, our research results are applicable to other complex disasters such as earthquakes, tornadoes, chemical spills or terrorism.

  19. Weather Advisory: Tornados | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summer months carry the threat of severe storms and tornados in our area. Take a few moments to consider how well you are prepared in the event of a tornado warning. The time to prepare for a tornado is before it happens. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides information on how to prepare and what to do in the event of a tornado. Take a few moments to read

  20. Dynamic Data Driven Applications Systems (DDDAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    response) – Earthquakes, hurricanes, tornados, wildfires, floods, landslides, tsunamis, … • Critical Infrastructure systems – Electric-powergrid...Multiphase Flow Weather and Climate Structural Mechanics Seismic Processing Aerodynamics Geophysical Fluids Quantum Chemistry Actinide Chemistry...Alloys • Approach and Objectives:  Consider porous SMAs:  similar macroscopic behavior but mass /weight is less, and thus attractive for

  1. Mapping and Visualization of Storm-Surge Dynamics for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesch, Dean B.

    2009-01-01

    The damages caused by the storm surges from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were significant and occurred over broad areas. Storm-surge maps are among the most useful geospatial datasets for hurricane recovery, impact assessments, and mitigation planning for future storms. Surveyed high-water marks were used to generate a maximum storm-surge surface for Hurricane Katrina extending from eastern Louisiana to Mobile Bay, Alabama. The interpolated surface was intersected with high-resolution lidar elevation data covering the study area to produce a highly detailed digital storm-surge inundation map. The storm-surge dataset and related data are available for display and query in a Web-based viewer application. A unique water-level dataset from a network of portable pressure sensors deployed in the days just prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall captured the hurricane's storm surge. The recorded sensor data provided water-level measurements with a very high temporal resolution at surveyed point locations. The resulting dataset was used to generate a time series of storm-surge surfaces that documents the surge dynamics in a new, spatially explicit way. The temporal information contained in the multiple storm-surge surfaces can be visualized in a number of ways to portray how the surge interacted with and was affected by land surface features. Spatially explicit storm-surge products can be useful for a variety of hurricane impact assessments, especially studies of wetland and land changes where knowledge of the extent and magnitude of storm-surge flooding is critical.

  2. Tornado Chasing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faidley, Warren

    1991-01-01

    Presents the rationale and purposes behind the phenomenon known as storm chasing, as well as the contributions that tornado chasers have made to both scientific knowledge and public safety. Provides statistical information on tornado frequencies and locations and contact addresses for storm chasers. (JJK)

  3. LABORATORY MODELING OF TORNADOES

    OpenAIRE

    文字, 信貴

    1982-01-01

    Laboratory modelings of the tornado vortices are overviewed. Modelings of the mesocyclone as theboundary conditions in the tornado simulations are found to have significant problems especially on thesource of thunderstorm and tornado rotation. A number of the problems related to the vortex structuresuch as the wind profiles or the role of turbulence are left unsolved. However, the simulated vortices arefound to have many common characteristics with the tornado vortices in nature, which sugges...

  4. Flood Risk Characterization for the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarini, G.; Smith, J. A.; Ntelekos, A. A.

    2009-04-01

    Tropical cyclones landfalling in the eastern United States pose a major risk for insured property and can lead to extensive damage through storm surge flooding, inland flooding or extreme windspeeds. Current hurricane cat-models do not include calculations of inland flooding from the outer rainfall bands of tropical cyclones but the issue is becoming increasingly important for commercial insurance risk assessment. The results of this study could be used to feed into the next generation of hurricane cat-models and assist in the calculation of damages from inland hurricane flood damage. Annual maximum peak discharge records from more than 400 stations in the eastern United States with at least 75 years of record to examine the role of landfalling tropical cyclones in controlling the upper tail of inland flood risk for the eastern United States. In addition to examining tropical cyclone inland flood risk at specific locations, the spatial extent of extreme flooding from lanfalling tropical cyclones is analyzed. Analyses of temporal trends and abrupt changes in the mean and variance of annual flood peaks are performed. Change-point analysis is performed using the non-parametric Pettitt test. Two non-parametric (Mann-Kendall and Spearman) tests and one parametric (Pearson) test are applied to detect the presence of temporal trends. Flood risk characterization centers on assessments of the spatial variation in "upper tail" properties of annual flood peak distributions. The modeling framework for flood frequency analysis is provided by the Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS).

  5. The Impact of “Hurricane Hugo” on the Purchase of Indirect Loss Coverage

    OpenAIRE

    Joe H. Murrey, Jr.; Robert L. Taylor; R. Keith Tudor; Kenneth W. Hollman

    1994-01-01

    This study examines the business community of Charleston, South Carolina following Hurricane Hugo. The objectives of this study are (1) to determine if, after experiencing an actual catastrophe, a significant number of firms either purchased or increased Business Interruption and/or Extra Expense insurance limits, and (2) to compare generally the responses from Charleston, South Carolina, with the earlier responses from previous studies of areas which experienced catastrophes such as tornados...

  6. Geologic hazards in the region of the Hurricane fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, W.R.

    1997-01-01

    Complex geology and variable topography along the 250-kilometer-long Hurricane fault in northwestern Arizona and southwestern Utah combine to create natural conditions that can present a potential danger to life and property. Geologic hazards are of particular concern in southwestern Utah, where the St. George Basin and Interstate-15 corridor north to Cedar City are one of Utah's fastest growing areas. Lying directly west of the Hurricane fault and within the Basin and Range - Colorado Plateau transition zone, this region exhibits geologic characteristics of both physiographic provinces. Long, potentially active, normal-slip faults displace a generally continuous stratigraphic section of mostly east-dipping late Paleozoic to Cretaceous sedimentary rocks unconformably overlain by Tertiary to Holocene sedimentary and igneous rocks and unconsolidated basin-fill deposits. Geologic hazards (exclusive of earthquake hazards) of principal concern in the region include problem soil and rock, landslides, shallow ground water, and flooding. Geologic materials susceptible to volumetric change, collapse, and subsidence in southwestern Utah include; expansive soil and rock, collapse-prone soil, gypsum and gypsiferous soil, soluble carbonate rocks, and soil and rock subject to piping and other ground collapse. Expansive soil and rock are widespread throughout the region. The Petrified Forest Member of the Chinle Formation is especially prone to large volume changes with variations in moisture content. Collapse-prone soils are common in areas of Cedar City underlain by alluvial-fan material derived from the Moenkopi and Chinle Formations in the nearby Hurricane Cliffs. Gypsiferous soil and rock are subject to dissolution which can damage foundations and create sinkholes. The principal formations in the region affected by dissolution of carbonate are the Kaibab and Toroweap Formations; both formations have developed sinkholes where crossed by perennial streams. Soil piping is

  7. Rhode Island Hurricane Evacuation Study Technical Data Report

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1995-01-01

    ... evacuation decision-making. To accomplish this, the study provides information on the extent and severity of potential flooding from hurricanes, the associated vulnerable population, capacities of existing public shelters...

  8. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWING HURRICANE KATRINA

    Science.gov (United States)

    On the morning of August 29, 2005 Hurricane Katrina struck the coast of Louisiana, between New Orleans and Biloxi, Mississippi, as a strong category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The massive winds and flooding had the potential for a tremendous environmental impac...

  9. Seismic detection of tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatom, F. B.

    1993-01-01

    Tornadoes represent the most violent of all forms of atmospheric storms, each year resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage and approximately one hundred fatalities. In recent years, considerable success has been achieved in detecting tornadic storms by means of Doppler radar. However, radar systems cannot determine when a tornado is actually in contact with the ground, expect possibly at extremely close range. At the present time, human observation is the only truly reliable way of knowing that a tornado is actually on the ground. However, considerable evidence exists indicating that a tornado in contact with the ground produces a significant seismic signal. If such signals are generated, the seismic detection and warning of an imminent tornado can become a distinct possibility. 

  10. A Participatory Modeling Application of a Distributed Hydrologic Model in Nuevo Leon, Mexico for the 2010 Hurricane Alex Flood Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baish, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Payan, J. G.; Robles-Morua, A.; Basile, G. M.

    2011-12-01

    A distributed hydrologic model can help bring consensus among diverse stakeholders in regional flood planning by producing quantifiable sets of alternative futures. This value is acute in areas with high uncertainties in hydrologic conditions and sparse observations. In this study, we conduct an application of the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) in the Santa Catarina basin of Nuevo Leon, Mexico, where Hurricane Alex in July 2010 led to catastrophic flooding of the capital city of Monterrey. Distributed model simulations utilize best-available information on the regional topography, land cover, and soils obtained from Mexican government agencies or analysis of remotely-sensed imagery from MODIS and ASTER. Furthermore, we developed meteorological forcing for the flood event based on multiple data sources, including three local gauge networks, satellite-based estimates from TRMM and PERSIANN, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Remotely-sensed data allowed us to quantify rainfall distributions in the upland, rural portions of the Santa Catarina that are sparsely populated and ungauged. Rural areas had significant contributions to the flood event and as a result were considered by stakeholders for flood control measures, including new reservoirs and upland vegetation management. Participatory modeling workshops with the stakeholders revealed a disconnect between urban and rural populations in regard to understanding the hydrologic conditions of the flood event and the effectiveness of existing and potential flood control measures. Despite these challenges, the use of the distributed flood forecasts developed within this participatory framework facilitated building consensus among diverse stakeholders and exploring alternative futures in the basin.

  11. Prevention of child injuries during tornadoes: cases from the 2011 tornado outbreak in Alabama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Christine M; Baker, Mark D; Monroe, Kathy W

    2012-12-01

    Tornadoes and violent weather pose a hazard to children, yet little is known about the use of personal protective devices during storms. An outbreak of tornadoes on April 27, 2011, resulted in the deaths of 23 children in Alabama. Records from 60 patients seen in a pediatric emergency department for tornado-related injuries were reviewed to identify the use of injury prevention devices. Three children directly exposed to a violent tornado (Enhanced Fujita Scale 4) were using safety equipment, specifically, a helmet and infant car seats. These 3 children sustained only minor injuries. Personal protective devices may have played a role in preventing child injuries from tornadoes. To our knowledge, this is the first report in the medical literature on helmet and infant car seat use as child protective devices during tornadoes.

  12. Condensational theory of stationary tornadoes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makarieva, A.M.; Gorshkov, V.G.; Nefiodov, A.V.

    2011-01-01

    Using the Bernoulli integral for air streamline with condensing water vapor a stationary axisymmetric tornado circulation is described. The obtained profiles of vertical, radial and tangential velocities are in agreement with observations for the Mulhall tornado, world's largest on record and longest-lived among the three tornadoes for which 3D velocity data are available. Maximum possible vortex velocities are estimated. -- Highlights: → Water vapor condensation causes a logarithmic drop of air pressure towards tornado center. → The first ever theoretical description of tornado velocities is obtained. → The maximum vortex velocity grows logarithmically with decreasing tornado eye radius. → Air motion with high velocities can only develop in sufficiently large condensation areas.

  13. "SOLAR MAGNETIZED ""TORNADOES:"" RELATION TO FILAMENTS"

    OpenAIRE

    Su, Yang; Wang, Tongjiang; Veronig, Astrid; Temmer, Manuela; Gan, Weiqun

    2012-01-01

    Solar magnetized "tornadoes", a phenomenon discovered in the solar atmosphere, appear as tornado-like structures in the corona but root in the photosphere. Like other solar phenomena, solar tornadoes are a feature of magnetized plasma and therefore differ distinctly from terrestrial tornadoes. Here we report the first analysis of solar "tornadoes" {Two papers which focused on different aspect of solar tornadoes were published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters (Li et al. 2012) and Nature (W...

  14. Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, A.; Jonkman, S. N.; Van Ledden, M.

    2015-01-01

    Since the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a flood risk analysis the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that - depending on the flood scenario - the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g., other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk to life of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Indicative effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation and discussion.

  15. Excitation of seismic waves by a tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valovcin, A.; Tanimoto, T.; Twardzik, C.

    2016-12-01

    Tornadoes are among the most common natural disasters to occur in the United States. Various methods are currently used in tornado forecasting, including surface weather stations, weather balloons and satellite and Doppler radar. These methods work for detecting possible locations of tornadoes and funnel clouds, but knowing when a tornado has touched down still strongly relies on reports from spotters. Studying tornadoes seismically offers an opportunity to know when a tornado has touched down without requiring an eyewitness report. With the installation of Earthscope's Transportable Array (TA), there have been an increased number of tornadoes that have come within close range of seismometers. We have identified seismic signals corresponding to three tornadoes that occurred in 2011 in the central US. These signals were recorded by the TA station closest to each of the tornado tracks. For each tornado, the amplitudes of the seismic signals increase when the storm is in contact with the ground, and continue until the tornado lifts off some time later. This occurs at both high and low frequencies. In this study we will model the seismic signal generated by a tornado at low frequencies (below 0.1 Hz). We will begin by modeling the signal from the Joplin tornado, an EF5 rated tornado which occurred in Missouri on May 22, 2011. By approximating the tornado as a vertical force, we model the generated signal as the tornado moves along its track and changes in strength. By modeling the seismic waveform generated by a tornado, we can better understand the seismic-excitation process. It could also provide a way to quantitatively compare tornadoes. Additional tornadoes to model include the Calumet-El Reno-Piedmont-Guthrie (CEPG) and Chickasa-Blanchard-Newcastle (CBN) tornadoes, both of which occurred on May 24, 2011 in Oklahoma.

  16. Hurricane Harvey Report: A fact-finding effort in the direct aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in the Greater Houston Region

    OpenAIRE

    Sebastian, A.G.; Lendering, K.T.; Kothuis, B.L.M.; Brand, A.D.; Jonkman, S.N.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Kolen, B.; Comes, M.; Lhermitte, S.L.M.; Meesters, K.J.M.G.; van de Walle, B.A.; Ebrahimi Fard, A.; Cunningham, S.; Khakzad Rostami, N.; Nespeca, V.

    2017-01-01

    On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of approximately 200 km/hour. Harvey caused severe damages in coastal Texas due to extreme winds and storm surge, but will go down in history for record-setting rainfall totals and flood-related damages. Across large portions of southeast Texas, rainfall totals during the six-day period between August 25 and 31, 2017 were amongst the highest ever recorded, causing flo...

  17. EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IVAN ON WATER QUALITY IN PENSACOLA BAY, FL USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pensacola Bay was in the strong NE quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004 as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, ...

  18. Tornado-Shaped Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Sol Sáez; de la Rosa, Félix Martínez; Rojas, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    In Advanced Calculus, our students wonder if it is possible to graphically represent a tornado by means of a three-dimensional curve. In this paper, we show it is possible by providing the parametric equations of such tornado-shaped curves.

  19. Tornado hazard model with the variation effects of tornado intensity along the path length

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirakuchi, Hiromaru; Nohara, Daisuke; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Hattori, Yasuo

    2015-01-01

    Most of Japanese tornados have been reported near the coast line, where all of Japanese nuclear power plants are located. It is necessary for Japanese electric power companies to assess tornado risks on the plants according to a new regulation in 2013. The new regulatory guide exemplifies a tornado hazard model, which cannot consider the variation of tornado intensity along the path length and consequently produces conservative risk estimates. The guide also recommends the long narrow strip area along the coast line with the width of 5-10 km as a region of interest, although the model tends to estimate inadequate wind speeds due to the limit of application. The purpose of this study is to propose a new tornado hazard model which can be apply to the long narrow strip area. The new model can also consider the variation of tornado intensity along the path length and across the path width. (author)

  20. Hurricane Sandy: Shared Trauma and Therapist Self-Disclosure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Nyapati; Mehra, Ashwin

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy was one of the most devastating storms to hit the United States in history. The impact of the hurricane included power outages, flooding in the New York City subway system and East River tunnels, disrupted communications, acute shortages of gasoline and food, and a death toll of 113 people. In addition, thousands of residences and businesses in New Jersey and New York were destroyed. This article chronicles the first author's personal and professional experiences as a survivor of the hurricane, more specifically in the dual roles of provider and trauma victim, involving informed self-disclosure with a patient who was also a victim of the hurricane. The general analytic framework of therapy is evaluated in the context of the shared trauma faced by patient and provider alike in the face of the hurricane, leading to important implications for future work on resilience and recovery for both the therapist and patient.

  1. Generation of missiles by tornadoes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1974-11-01

    Available data on tornado wind velocities and wind distribution are incorporated into a mathematical model of the tornado wind field. The mathematical model is then used to predict the time-history of motion of a potential missile in a tornado wind field. (U.S.)

  2. Pneumonia cases following an EF-5 tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forshee-Hakala, Beth A

    2015-07-01

    Infections following a natural disaster such as an EF-5 tornado can be atypical and difficult to treat. Studies have looked at illness following several natural disasters, but few have studied respiratory illness following a tornado. A review of patients with pneumonia admitted during the period from May 22, 2009, through May 21, 2012, was completed. The Tornado Zone Group included adult patients who lived or worked in the tornado zone during the year following the tornado. Data were isolated by number of pneumonia cases within and outside the tornado zone per month per year. An analysis of variance comparing the number of pneumonia cases from the tornado zone per month per year was significant at F2,38 = 12.93 and P Tornado Zone Group (P Tornado Zone patients to be younger than controls (t390 = 5.14; P Tornado Zone Group included uncommon pathogens not isolated during the 2 years prior. The number of pneumonia cases may increase following tornadoes. Although current guidelines recommend narrow-spectrum antibiotics for community-acquired pneumonia, results of this study suggest the possible need for broader antimicrobial coverage after tornadoes. Copyright © 2015 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. What's Left After a Tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence Inst. of Tech., Southfield, MI.

    Following recent tornadoes, terms of specially trained architectural and engineering faculty conducted onsite examinations and research of building damage. It was concluded that tornado damage to buildings is predictable. A trained architect or engineer can establish, before a tornado strikes, those portions of the building that will offer the…

  4. Multi-source data fusion and modeling to assess and communicate complex flood dynamics to support decision-making for downstream areas of dams: The 2011 hurricane irene and schoharie creek floods, NY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renschler, Chris S.; Wang, Zhihao

    2017-10-01

    In light of climate and land use change, stakeholders around the world are interested in assessing historic and likely future flood dynamics and flood extents for decision-making in watersheds with dams as well as limited availability of stream gages and costly technical resources. This research evaluates an assessment and communication approach of combining GIS, hydraulic modeling based on latest remote sensing and topographic imagery by comparing the results to an actual flood event and available stream gages. On August 28th 2011, floods caused by Hurricane Irene swept through a large rural area in New York State, leaving thousands of people homeless, devastating towns and cities. Damage was widespread though the estimated and actual floods inundation and associated return period were still unclear since the flooding was artificially increased by flood water release due to fear of a dam break. This research uses the stream section right below the dam between two stream gages North Blenheim and Breakabeen along Schoharie Creek as a case study site to validate the approach. The data fusion approach uses a GIS, commonly available data sources, the hydraulic model HEC-RAS as well as airborne LiDAR data that were collected two days after the flood event (Aug 30, 2011). The aerial imagery of the airborne survey depicts a low flow event as well as the evidence of the record flood such as debris and other signs of damage to validate the hydrologic simulation results with the available stream gauges. Model results were also compared to the official Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood scenarios to determine the actual flood return period of the event. The dynamic of the flood levels was then used to visualize the flood and the actual loss of the Old Blenheim Bridge using Google Sketchup. Integration of multi-source data, cross-validation and visualization provides new ways to utilize pre- and post-event remote sensing imagery and hydrologic models to better

  5. Necessity of countermeasures for hurricane, typhoon and cyclone in accordance with the progress of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narabayashi, Tadashi; Sugiyama, Kenichiro

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, according to the progress of global warming, hurricanes and typhoons getting bigger and bigger, about 20% increase per decade. Hurricanes and typhoons are given thermal energy from vaporizing steam from surface of sea water. Hurricane Sandy attacked New York on 22-29, Oct. 2012. Typhoon 26th attacked Ohshima, Oct. 2013, and Typhoon 30th attacked Philippine on Nov. 4-11. Tropical cyclone Phailin attacked India on Oct. 12, 2013. Its diameter was 2300km. They were all category 5. Human beings are now on the front of the natural disasters. We think the risk is higher than active faults that moves only several thousand years period. In the US, a nuclear power plant stopped its operation when a category 5 hurricane arrived nearby, which was monitored from a weather satellite. The countermeasures for tornado and tsunami will be effective for typhoon. NRA found the lack of description in the new regulatory guideline and they said the management plan should be considered by licensees. The Japan Society of Maintenology will start preparing the guideline for typhoon. (author)

  6. Climatological and regional characteristics of supercell tornado occurrence based on a long-term reanalysis of tornado parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, Soichiro; Nohara, Daisuke; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates tornado climatology in Japan in terms of the regionalization of tornado intensity. A 50-year reanalysis dataset (the horizontal resolution of 5 km and hourly interval), produced by downscaling using the WRF mesoscale model and ECMWF reanalysis datasets, is used to estimate tornado parameters such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and 3-km storm relative helicity (SReH). Energy helicity index (EHI) is also calculated as a composite parameter. Based on a long-term reanalysis data of tornado parameters, the number of times simultaneously exceeding threshold values is counted for SReH and CAPE parameters. The same procedure is done for EHI parameter. The thresholds are set from meteorological analysis of F3 tornadoes that are currently the most intense in Japan. Results indicate that the Pacific side of Japan along the south coast is the most favorable region for the occurrence of the most intense scale of tornado. This is consistent with the fact that the paths of most of all F3 tornadoes are include in this high-frequency region in exceeding thresholds. In other hand, approximately one-order smaller frequency in exceeding than the Pacific sides is evaluated in the Japan Sea side, which suggests topographic effects of blocking humid unstable air mass transported from the Pacific Ocean. The tornado intensity region evaluated by our approach is useful for a probabilistic hazard analysis of tornado wind speeds in the implementation of impact assessment of tornadoes for nuclear power plants. (author)

  7. Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Tchounwou

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE obtained at the equilibrium level (EL, from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  8. Annihilation and Reanimation of a Tornado in the Improved Tornado Tube

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarek, Stanislaw

    2016-01-01

    Some new experiments using an improved version of the "tornado tube" are described here. The improved tornado tube consists of two plastic transparent bottles whose openings are connected with a ball valve, available at most hardware stores. After being filled with fluid and inverting, this tube allows demonstration of the generation,…

  9. Composite Flood Risk for Virgin Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Composite Flood Risk layer combines flood hazard datasets from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood zones, NOAA's Shallow Coastal Flooding, and the National Hurricane Center SLOSH model for Storm Surge inundation for category 1, 2, and 3 hurricanes.Geographic areas are represented by a grid of 10 by 10 meter cells and each cell has a ranking based on variation in exposure to flooding hazards: Moderate, High and Extreme exposure. Geographic areas in each input layers are ranked based on their probability of flood risk exposure. The logic was such that areas exposed to flooding on a more frequent basis were given a higher ranking. Thus the ranking incorporates the probability of the area being flooded. For example, even though a Category 3 storm surge has higher flooding elevations, the likelihood of the occurrence is lower than a Category 1 storm surge and therefore the Category 3 flood area is given a lower exposure ranking. Extreme exposure areas are those areas that are exposed to relatively frequent flooding.The ranked input layers are then converted to a raster for the creation of the composite risk layer by using cell statistics in spatial analysis. The highest exposure ranking for a given cell in any of the three input layers is assigned to the corresponding cell in the composite layer.For example, if an area (a cell) is rank as medium in the FEMA layer, moderate in the SLOSH layer, but extreme in the SCF layer, the cell will be considere

  10. Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Inundation for Categories 2 and 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    The file geodatabase (fgdb) contains the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Maximum of Maximums (MOM) model for hurricane categories 2 and 4. The EPA Office of Research & Development (ORD) modified the original model from NOAA to fit the model parameters for the Buzzards Bay region. The models show storm surge extent for the Mattapoisett area and therefore the flooding area was reduced to the study area. Areas of flooding that were not connected to the main water body were removed. The files in the geodatabase are:Cat2_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 2 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 4 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR4_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Future Category 4 hurricane with 4 feet sea level riseThe features support the Weather Ready Mattapoisett story map, which can be accessed via the following link:https://epa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=1ff4f1d28a254cb689334799d94b74e2

  11. Latest climate changes in Romania :tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pop, Elena

    2014-05-01

    " that eat and spit out roofs, animals, trucks and concrete road poles. I have minutely searched with my students all the data of that tornado, the direction of wind gusts, we have calculated the force of the impact by studying the photos taken on that occasion. I have also done some research on other tornadoes that have taken place In Movilita and Brezoaele the past years. I have studied the increase of the centrifugal force and that of Coriolis in the context of repetition of such dangerous atmospheric phenomena that showed their apparition as ten per year in Romania. Therefore the average Coriolis parameter is 10-4 s-1, for a typical atmospheric speed of 10 m/s (22 mph) the radius is 100 km (62 mi), with a period of about 17 hours. The lowering of the air pressure occurring on such occasions has been one of my concerns as well the the speed of the cloud column rotation. All these phenomena are the effect of the climate change occurring all over our Planet due to pollution. As you can see the devastation produced by such extreme climate lead to spontaneous floods and later desertification on the south-eastern part of our country. References : 1. Craciun, Cristina, Bala, Bogdan, Tornadele din Romania, http://dezechilibrenaturale.blogspot.ro/2013/02/tornadele-din-romania.html 2. Bell, Aurora, Tornadele in Romania, http://vremea.meteoromania.ro/node/33 3. Lemon, R. Leslie, Stan-Sion, Aurora, Soci , Cornel, Corduneanu, Elena, A strong, long -track, Romanian tornado, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809503000632 Author : Mrs. Elena Pop, Science teacher at "Lucian Blaga" Secondary School, Ocna Mures, Romania

  12. Assessing a Tornado Climatology from Global Tornado Intensity Distributions

    OpenAIRE

    Feuerstein, B.; Dotzek, N.; Grieser, J.

    2005-01-01

    Recent work demonstrated that the shape of tornado intensity distributions from various regions worldwide is well described by Weibull functions. This statistical modeling revealed a strong correlation between the fit parameters c for shape and b for scale regardless of the data source. In the present work it is shown that the quality of the Weibull fits is optimized if only tornado reports of F1 and higher intensity are used and that the c–b correlation does indeed reflect a universal featur...

  13. Numerical Simulation of a Tornado Generating Supercell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proctor, Fred H.; Ahmad, Nashat N.; LimonDuparcmeur, Fanny M.

    2012-01-01

    The development of tornadoes from a tornado generating supercell is investigated with a large eddy simulation weather model. Numerical simulations are initialized with a sounding representing the environment of a tornado producing supercell that affected North Carolina and Virginia during the Spring of 2011. The structure of the simulated storm was very similar to that of a classic supercell, and compared favorably to the storm that affected the vicinity of Raleigh, North Carolina. The presence of mid-level moisture was found to be important in determining whether a supercell would generate tornadoes. The simulations generated multiple tornadoes, including cyclonic-anticyclonic pairs. The structure and the evolution of these tornadoes are examined during their lifecycle.

  14. The tornado risk in eastern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asmis, G.J.K.

    1980-01-01

    In the United States, a tornado design requirement was imposed on nuclear power plants in 1967. This requirement precipitated considerable study on the probability of toronado strikes and the consequent damage. As a data base, records of thousands of tornadoes which occurred in the U.S. in the last 50 years were available. Unfortunately, no such data base exists for tornadoes and other extreme atmospheric events in Canada. A theoretical study employing a Monte Carlo technique was used to simulate the tornado environment for a hypothetical site. This exercise concluded that a site the size of a large nuclear park such as Bruce can be traversed by a tornado every 500 years. The results are very preliminary since very little Canadian data or meteorological considerations have been involved. The results do, however, show that the frequency of a tornado strike is in the order of 10 -3 events/annum and is therefore of concern in the safety assessment of nuclear facilities. (auth)

  15. Tornado protection by venting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavanagh, C.A.

    1987-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the ability to protect a modern nuclear power plant from the effects of a tornado by the use of a system of venting in all safety-related structures outside of the containment. The paper demonstrates this by presenting a method of analysis and of equipment selection that fully complies with the intent and the letter of applicable federal regulatory guides. A report of an actual tornado in the City of Kalamazoo, Michigan, suggests that the concept of sealing a plant during a tornado may not always be applicable

  16. Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, R.C.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a summary of past and present accomplishments of the Natural Phenomena Hazards Program that has been ongoing at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory since 1975. The Natural Phenomena covered includes earthquake; winds, hurricanes, and tornadoes; flooding and precipitation; lightning; and volcanic events. The work is organized into four major areas (1) Policy, requirements, standards, and guidance, (2) Technical support, research and development, (3) Technology transfer, and (4) Oversight

  17. The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    growth over a number of years or requiring massive additional federal spending, or both. For exam- ple, the country could experience more-frequent severe...floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, and fires—as some models of climate change predict—or a single massive earth- quake, a nuclear meltdown that rendered...cumulative amount of surpluses remaining after paying down publicly held debt available for redemption . Debt does not reflect economic effects of the

  18. Mexico tornado climatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Macías Medrano

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available A brief introduction on some features of tornado database in Mexico is exposed showing its substantive criteria. We resent a brief analysis about main Mexican tornadoes´ characteristics, based on data collected between 2000 to 2010, talking about spatial and temporal expressions (historical, seasonal and horary in order to show the importance of it destruction capacity and also the people´s vulnerability in Mexico.

  19. New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina: An Unnatural Disaster?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, D.; Werner, B.; Kelso, A.

    2005-12-01

    Motivated by destruction in New Orleans following hurricane Katrina, we use a numerical model to explore how natural processes, economic development, hazard mitigation measures and policy decisions intertwine to produce long periods of quiescence punctuated by disasters of increasing magnitude. Physical, economic and policy dynamics are modeled on a grid representing the subsiding Mississippi Delta region surrounding New Orleans. Water flow and resulting sediment erosion and deposition are simulated in response to prescribed river floods and storms. Economic development operates on a limited number of commodities and services such as agricultural products, oil and chemical industries and port services, with investment and employment responding to both local conditions and global constraints. Development permitting, artificial levee construction and pumping are implemented by policy agents who weigh predicted economic benefits (tax revenue), mitigation costs and potential hazards. Economic risk is reduced by a combination of private insurance, federal flood insurance and disaster relief. With this model, we simulate the initiation and growth of New Orleans coupled with an increasing level of protection from a series of flooding events. Hazard mitigation filters out small magnitude events, but terrain and hydrological modifications amplify the impact of large events. In our model, "natural disasters" are the inevitable outcome of the mismatch between policy based on short-time-scale economic calculations and stochastic forcing by infrequent, high-magnitude flooding events. A comparison of the hazard mitigation response to river- and hurricane-induced flooding will be discussed. Supported by NSF Geology and Paleontology and the Andrew W Mellon Foundation.

  20. Hydrological Aspects of Weather Prediction and Flood Warnings: Report of the Ninth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Droegemeier, K.K.; Smith, J.D.; Businger, S.; Doswell, C.; Doyle, J.; Duffy, C.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Graziano, T.; James, L.D.; Krajewski, V.; LeMone, M.; Lettenmaier, D.; Mass, C.; Pielke, R.; Ray, P.; Rutledge, S.; Schaake, J.; Zipser, E.

    2000-01-01

    Among the many natural disasters that disrupt human and industrial activity in the United States each year, including tornadoes, hurricanes, extreme temperatures, and lightning, floods are among the most devastating and rank second in the loss of life. Indeed, the societal impact of floods has increased during the past few years and shows no sign of abating. Although the scientific questions associated with flooding and its accurate prediction are many and complex, an unprecedented opportunity now exists - in light of new observational and computing systems and infrastructures, a much improved understanding of small-scale meteorological and hydrological processes, and the availability of sophisticated numerical models and data assimilation systems - to attack the flood forecasting problem in a comprehensive manner that will yield significant new scientific insights and corresponding practical benefits. The authors present herein a set of recommendations for advancing our understanding of floods via the creation of natural laboratories situated in a variety of local meteorological and hydrological settings. Emphasis is given to floods caused by convection and cold season events, fronts and extratropical cyclones, orographic forcing, and hurricanes and tropical cyclones following landfall. Although the particular research strategies applied within each laboratory setting will necessarily vary, all will share the following principal elements: (a) exploitation of those couplings important to flooding that exist between meteorological and hydrological processes and models; (b) innovative use of operational radars, research radars, satellites, and rain gauges to provide detailed spatial characterizations of precipitation fields and rates, along with the use of this information in hydrological models and for improving and validating microphysical algorithms in meteorological models; (c) comparisons of quantitative precipitation estimation algorithms from both research

  1. A hurricane modification process, applying a new technology tested for warm cloud seeding to produce artificial rains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, T.; Martin, I.; Iha, K.

    A Hurricane Modification Process with application of a new clean technology attested for seeding warm clouds with collector pure water droplets of controlled size to produce artificial rains in warm clouds is proposed to modify the hurricanes in order to avoid their formation or to modify the trajectory or to weaken hurricanes in action The Process is based on the time-dependent effects of cloud droplets microphysical processes for the formation and growth of the natural water droplets inside the clouds releasing large volumes of Aeolian energy to form the strong rotative upside air movements A new Paradigm proposed explain the strong and rotative winds created with the water droplets formation and grow process releasing the rotative Aeolian Energy in Tornados and Hurricanes This theory receive the Gold Medal Award of the Water Science in the 7th International Water Symposium 2005 in France Artificial seeding in the Process studies condensing a specified percentage of the water vapor to liquid water droplets where we observe the release of larges intensity of the Aeolian energy creates the hurricanes producing appreciable perturbations With they rotating strong wind created by the water droplets releasing Aeolian energy The Amplitudes of these winds are comparable to natural disasters Once this natural thermal process is completely understood artificial process to modify the hurricanes become scientifically possible to avoid them to happen or to deviate their trajectory or to weaken the already formed hurricanes In this work

  2. Kinetic Energy of Tornadoes in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler Fricker

    Full Text Available Tornadoes can cause catastrophic destruction. Here total kinetic energy (TKE as a metric of destruction is computed from the fraction of the tornado path experiencing various damage levels and a characteristic wind speed for each level. The fraction of the path is obtained from a model developed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that combines theory with empirical data. TKE is validated as a useful metric by comparing it to other indexes and loss indicators. Half of all tornadoes have TKE exceeding 62.1 GJ and a quarter have TKE exceeding 383.2 GJ. One percent of the tornadoes have TKE exceeding 31.9 TJ. April has more energy than May with fewer tornadoes; March has more energy than June with half as many tornadoes. September has the least energy but November and December have the fewest tornadoes. Alabama ranks number one in terms of tornado energy with 2.48 PJ over the period 2007-2013. TKE can be used to help better understand the changing nature of tornado activity.

  3. Kinetic Energy of Tornadoes in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricker, Tyler; Elsner, James B

    2015-01-01

    Tornadoes can cause catastrophic destruction. Here total kinetic energy (TKE) as a metric of destruction is computed from the fraction of the tornado path experiencing various damage levels and a characteristic wind speed for each level. The fraction of the path is obtained from a model developed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that combines theory with empirical data. TKE is validated as a useful metric by comparing it to other indexes and loss indicators. Half of all tornadoes have TKE exceeding 62.1 GJ and a quarter have TKE exceeding 383.2 GJ. One percent of the tornadoes have TKE exceeding 31.9 TJ. April has more energy than May with fewer tornadoes; March has more energy than June with half as many tornadoes. September has the least energy but November and December have the fewest tornadoes. Alabama ranks number one in terms of tornado energy with 2.48 PJ over the period 2007-2013. TKE can be used to help better understand the changing nature of tornado activity.

  4. Characteristics of tornado generated missiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, A.K.; Boritz, R.C.; Niyogi, P.K.

    1975-10-01

    The development of techniques designed to calculate tornado missile velocities is traced. It is shown that there is a need for a consistent method for obtaining missile velocities for a variety of tornado parameters. A consistent method for determination of trajectories and velocities of missiles generated by a tornado is described. The effects of plant layout upon missile impact velocity at a given building are discussed from the point of view of determining the necessary missile barrier characteristics. 19 references

  5. When high waters recede and the floodplain reemerges: Evaluating the lingering effects of extreme flooding on stream nitrogen cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neville, J.; Emanuel, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    In 2016 Hurricane Matthew brought immense flooding and devastation to the Lumbee (aka Lumber) River basin. Some impacts are obvious, such as deserted homes and businesses, but other impacts, including long-term environmental, are uncertain. Extreme flooding throughout the basin established temporary hydrologic connectivity between aquatic environments and upland sources of nutrients and other pollutants. Though 27% of the basin is covered by wetlands, hurricane-induced flooding was so intense that wetlands may have had no opportunity to mitigate delivery of nutrients into surface waters. As a result, how Hurricane Matthew impacted nitrate retention and uptake in the Lumbee River remains uncertain. The unknown magnitude of nitrate transported into the Lumbee River from surrounding sources may have lingering impacts on nitrogen cycling in this stream. With these potential impacts in mind, we conducted a Lagrangian water quality sampling campaign to assess the ability of the Lumbee River to retain and process nitrogen following Hurricane Matthew. We collected samples before and after flooding and compare first order nitrogen uptake kinetics of both periods. The analysis and comparisons allow us to evaluate the long-term impacts of Hurricane Matthew on nitrogen cycling after floodwaters recede.

  6. Hurricane Recovery and Ecological Resilience: Measuring the Impacts of Wetland Alteration Post Hurricane Ike on the Upper TX Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reja, Md Y.; Brody, Samuel D.; Highfield, Wesley E.; Newman, Galen D.

    2017-12-01

    Recovery after hurricane events encourages new development activities and allows reconstruction through the conversion of naturally occurring wetlands to other land uses. This research investigates the degree to which hurricane recovery activities in coastal communities are undermining the ability of these places to attenuate the impacts of future storm events. Specifically, it explores how and to what extent wetlands are being affected by the CWA Section 404 permitting program in the context of post-Hurricane Ike 2008 recovery. Wetland alteration patterns are examined by selecting a control group (Aransas and Brazoria counties with no hurricane impact) vs. study group (Chambers and Galveston counties with hurricane impact) research design with a pretest-posttest measurement analyzing the variables such as permit types, pre-post Ike permits, land cover classes, and within-outside the 100-year floodplain. Results show that permitting activities in study group have increased within the 100-year floodplain and palustrine wetlands continue to be lost compare to the control group. Simultaneously, post-Ike individual and nationwide permits increased in the Hurricane Ike impacted area. A binomial logistic regression model indicated that permits within the study group, undeveloped land cover class, and individual and nationwide permit type have a substantial effect on post-Ike permits, suggesting that post-Ike permits have significant impact on wetland losses. These findings indicate that recovery after the hurricane is compromising ecological resiliency in coastal communities. The study outcome may be applied to policy decisions in managing wetlands during a long-term recovery process to maintain natural function for future flood mitigation.

  7. Apparent Solar Tornado-Like Prominences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panasenco, Olga; Martin, Sara F.; Velli, Marco

    2014-02-01

    Recent high-resolution observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) have reawakened interest in the old and fascinating phenomenon of solar tornado-like prominences. This class of prominences was first introduced by Pettit ( Astrophys. J. 76, 9, 1932), who studied them over many years. Observations of tornado prominences similar to the ones seen by SDO had already been documented by Secchi ( Le Soleil, 1877). High-resolution and high-cadence multiwavelength data obtained by SDO reveal that the tornado-like appearance of these prominences is mainly an illusion due to projection effects. We discuss two different cases where prominences on the limb might appear to have a tornado-like behavior. One case of apparent vortical motions in prominence spines and barbs arises from the (mostly) 2D counterstreaming plasma motion along the prominence spine and barbs together with oscillations along individual threads. The other case of apparent rotational motion is observed in a prominence cavity and results from the 3D plasma motion along the writhed magnetic fields inside and along the prominence cavity as seen projected on the limb. Thus, the "tornado" impression results either from counterstreaming and oscillations or from the projection on the plane of the sky of plasma motion along magnetic-field lines, rather than from a true vortical motion around an (apparent) vertical or horizontal axis. We discuss the link between tornado-like prominences, filament barbs, and photospheric vortices at their base.

  8. Towards a Flood Severity Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettner, A.; Chong, A.; Prades, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Muir, S.; Amparore, A.; Slayback, D. A.; Poungprom, R.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide, affecting 21 million people every year. In the immediate moments following a flood event, humanitarian actors like the World Food Program need to make rapid decisions ( 72 hrs) on how to prioritize affected areas impacted by such an event. For other natural disasters like hurricanes/cyclones and earthquakes, there are industry-recognized standards on how the impacted areas are to be classified. Shake maps, quantifying peak ground motion, from for example the US Geological Survey are widely used for assessing earthquakes. Similarly, cyclones are tracked by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) who release storm nodes and tracks (forecasted and actual), with wind buffers and classify the event according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. For floods, the community is usually able to acquire unclassified data of the flood extent as identified from satellite imagery. Most often no water discharge hydrograph is available to classify the event into recurrence intervals simply because there is no gauging station, or the gauging station was unable to record the maximum discharge due to overtopping or flood damage. So, the question remains: How do we methodically turn a flooded area into classified areas of different gradations of impact? Here, we present a first approach towards developing a global applicable flood severity index. The flood severity index is set up such that it considers relatively easily obtainable physical parameters in a short period of time like: flood frequency (relating the current flood to historical events) and magnitude, as well as land cover, slope, and where available pre-event simulated flood depth. The scale includes categories ranging from very minor flooding to catastrophic flooding. We test and evaluate the postulated classification scheme against a set of past flood events. Once a severity category is determined, socio

  9. Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Van Der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, A.G.; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi

    2017-01-01

    During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return

  10. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, James B; Widen, Holly M

    2015-01-01

    Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA). A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  11. Wind vs Water in Hurricanes: The Challenge of Multi-peril Hazard Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    With the advancing threat of Sea Level Rise much of the U. S. is in danger of falling into the "protection gap". Residential property flood risk is not yet covered by the insurance market. Many coastal properties are not paying into the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) at premiums commensurate with the risk. This is exasperated by the program being deep in debt, despite only covering a fraction of the potential loss, while windstorm insurance covers up to replacement value. This results in a battle that benefits nobody. Any significant hurricane will include both wind and storm surge perils at the same time and any coastal property has to contend with the risk of damage by both. If you have extensive flood damage your wind storm policy might deny your claim and your flood policy (if you even have one) will in most cases be constrained to a $250,000 limit. Bring on the litigators! Some homeowners will claim that the wind destroyed the home first and then it was carried away by flood waters or pulverized by waves. Insurers might respond that the storm surge did all the damage and deny the claim. We've seen this already following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and Hurricane Ike in 2008, with thousands of litigation claims and a cottage industry of scientists serving as expert witnesses on both sides of the aisle. Congress responded in 2012 with the Coastal Act, which provided an "unfunded mandate" directing NOAA to provide wind and water level data to FEMA for input to their "Coastal Formula" for attributing loss to wind and water. The results of the formula would then limit the amount paid by the NFIP by subtracting out the wind loss portion. The Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA) went further by assembling a panel of experts to recommend guidelines for how the state should respond to future hurricane impacting properties on the Texas coast. The expert panel report was released in April of 2016, and TWIA is currently developing a comprehensive

  12. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H Jagger

    Full Text Available Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA. A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  13. Three scales of motions associated with tornadoes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forbes, G.S.

    1978-03-01

    This dissertation explores three scales of motion commonly associated with tornadoes, and the interaction of these scales: the tornado cyclone, the tornado, and the suction vortex. The goal of the research is to specify in detail the character and interaction of these scales of motion to explain tornadic phenomena

  14. Solar Magnetized Tornadoes: Rotational Motion in a Tornado-like Prominence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Yang; Gömöry, Peter; Veronig, Astrid; Temmer, Manuela; Wang, Tongjiang; Vanninathan, Kamalam; Gan, Weiqun; Li, YouPing

    2014-04-01

    Su et al. proposed a new explanation for filament formation and eruption, where filament barbs are rotating magnetic structures driven by underlying vortices on the surface. Such structures have been noticed as tornado-like prominences when they appear above the limb. They may play a key role as the source of plasma and twist in filaments. However, no observations have successfully distinguished rotational motion of the magnetic structures in tornado-like prominences from other motions such as oscillation and counter-streaming plasma flows. Here we report evidence of rotational motions in a tornado-like prominence. The spectroscopic observations in two coronal lines were obtained from a specifically designed Hinode/EIS observing program. The data revealed the existence of both cold and million-degree-hot plasma in the prominence leg, supporting the so-called prominence-corona transition region. The opposite velocities at the two sides of the prominence and their persistent time evolution, together with the periodic motions evident in SDO/AIA dark structures, indicate a rotational motion of both cold and hot plasma with a speed of ~5 km s-1.

  15. Mosquito fauna and arbovirus surveillance in a coastal Mississippi community after Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foppa, Ivo M; Evans, Christopher L; Wozniak, Arthur; Wills, William

    2007-06-01

    Hurricane Katrina caused massive destruction and flooding along the Gulf Coast in August 2005. We collected mosquitoes and tested them for arboviral infection in a severely hurricane-damaged community to determine species composition and to assess the risk of a mosquito-borne epidemic disease in that community about 6 wk after the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. Light-trap collections yielded 8,215 mosquitoes representing 19 species, while limited gravid-trap collections were not productive. The most abundant mosquito species was Culex nigripalpus, which constituted 73.6% of all specimens. No arboviruses were detected in any of the mosquitoes collected in this survey, which did not support the assertion that human risk for arboviral infection was increased in the coastal community 6 wk after the hurricane.

  16. SOLAR MAGNETIZED 'TORNADOES': RELATION TO FILAMENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Su Yang; Veronig, Astrid; Temmer, Manuela [IGAM-Kanzelhoehe Observatory, Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Universitaetsplatz 5, A-8010 Graz (Austria); Wang Tongjiang [Department of Physics, Catholic University of America, Washington, DC 20064 (United States); Gan Weiqun, E-mail: yang.su@uni-graz.at [Key Laboratory of Dark Matter and Space Astronomy, Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China)

    2012-09-10

    Solar magnetized 'tornadoes', a phenomenon discovered in the solar atmosphere, appear as tornado-like structures in the corona but are rooted in the photosphere. Like other solar phenomena, solar tornadoes are a feature of magnetized plasma and therefore differ distinctly from terrestrial tornadoes. Here we report the first analysis of solar 'tornadoes' (two papers which focused on different aspects of solar tornadoes were published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters and Nature, respectively, during the revision of this Letter). A detailed case study of two events indicates that they are rotating vertical magnetic structures probably driven by underlying vortex flows in the photosphere. They usually exist as a group and are related to filaments/prominences, another important solar phenomenon whose formation and eruption are still mysteries. Solar tornadoes may play a distinct role in the supply of mass and twists to filaments. These findings could lead to a new explanation of filament formation and eruption.

  17. Changing volatility of U.S. annual tornado reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.

    2014-10-01

    United States (U.S.) tornado activity results in substantial loss of life and property damage each year. A simple measure of the U.S. tornado climatology is the average number of tornadoes per year. However, even this statistic is elusive because of nonstationary behavior due in large part to changes in reporting practices. Differencing of the annual report data results in a quantity without mean trends and whose standard deviation we denote as volatility, since it is an indication of the likely year-to-year variation in the number of tornadoes reported. While volatility changes detected prior to 2000 can be associated with known reporting practice changes, an increase in volatility in the 2000s across intensity levels cannot. A volatility increase is also seen in a tornado environment index which measures the favorability of atmospheric conditions to tornado activity, providing evidence that the recent increase in tornado report volatility is related to the physical environment.

  18. Dispersion of small particles in a tornado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pepper, D.W.

    1975-05-01

    Based on 22 years of tornado statistics for South Carolina and Georgia, the probability of a tornado of Class F3 or greater striking a point at the Savannah River Plant is calculated to be approximately 14 x 10 -5 per year. These statistics show that Class F3 tornados (0.56-psi pressure drop and winds of 158 to 206 mph), are the most frequently occurring but cause only 23 percent of the damage compared with all classes of tornadoes. F4 tornadoes (1.10-psi pressure drop and winds of 207 to 260 mph) constitute only 20 percent of the total, but cause 63 percent of the damage. A Gaussian diffusion model is used to calculate the ground level concentration (ratio of concentration to source mass chi/Q) as a function of distance downwind should a tornado strike a point within the Savannah River Plant (SRP). The particles released to the atmosphere are assumed to be 1 to 3-μm diameter. For the calculations, two cases of possible small particle pickup are considered. In Case I a unit source of small particles is assumed to be injected into the tornado core and transported into the thunderstorm. In Case II, the cluster of particles is assumed to exit the side of the tornado core below the thunderstorm cloud. Several different stabilization heights within the thunderstorm, different horizontal wind speeds, and different turbulence dissipation rates are assumed for the calculations. (U.S.)

  19. ARE GIANT TORNADOES THE LEGS OF SOLAR PROMINENCES?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wedemeyer, Sven; Scullion, Eamon; Rouppe van der Voort, Luc; Bosnjak, Antonija [Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1029 Blindern, NO-0315 Oslo (Norway); Antolin, Patrick, E-mail: sven.wedemeyer@astro.uio.no [Centre for Mathematical Plasma Astrophysics, Department of Mathematics, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200B, bus 2400, B-3001 Leuven (Belgium)

    2013-09-10

    Observations in the 171 A channel of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly of the space-borne Solar Dynamics Observatory show tornado-like features in the atmosphere of the Sun. These giant tornadoes appear as dark, elongated, and apparently rotating structures in front of a brighter background. This phenomenon is thought to be produced by rotating magnetic field structures that extend throughout the atmosphere. We characterize giant tornadoes through a statistical analysis of properties such as spatial distribution, lifetimes, and sizes. A total number of 201 giant tornadoes are detected in a period of 25 days, suggesting that, on average, about 30 events are present across the whole Sun at a time close to solar maximum. Most tornadoes appear in groups and seem to form the legs of prominences, thus serving as plasma sources/sinks. Additional H{alpha} observations with the Swedish 1 m Solar Telescope imply that giant tornadoes rotate as a structure, although they clearly exhibit a thread-like structure. We observe tornado groups that grow prior to the eruption of the connected prominence. The rotation of the tornadoes may progressively twist the magnetic structure of the prominence until it becomes unstable and erupts. Finally, we investigate the potential relation of giant tornadoes to other phenomena, which may also be produced by rotating magnetic field structures. A comparison to cyclones, magnetic tornadoes, and spicules implies that such events are more abundant and short-lived the smaller they are. This comparison might help to construct a power law for the effective atmospheric heating contribution as a function of spatial scale.

  20. ARE GIANT TORNADOES THE LEGS OF SOLAR PROMINENCES?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wedemeyer, Sven; Scullion, Eamon; Rouppe van der Voort, Luc; Bosnjak, Antonija; Antolin, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    Observations in the 171 Å channel of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly of the space-borne Solar Dynamics Observatory show tornado-like features in the atmosphere of the Sun. These giant tornadoes appear as dark, elongated, and apparently rotating structures in front of a brighter background. This phenomenon is thought to be produced by rotating magnetic field structures that extend throughout the atmosphere. We characterize giant tornadoes through a statistical analysis of properties such as spatial distribution, lifetimes, and sizes. A total number of 201 giant tornadoes are detected in a period of 25 days, suggesting that, on average, about 30 events are present across the whole Sun at a time close to solar maximum. Most tornadoes appear in groups and seem to form the legs of prominences, thus serving as plasma sources/sinks. Additional Hα observations with the Swedish 1 m Solar Telescope imply that giant tornadoes rotate as a structure, although they clearly exhibit a thread-like structure. We observe tornado groups that grow prior to the eruption of the connected prominence. The rotation of the tornadoes may progressively twist the magnetic structure of the prominence until it becomes unstable and erupts. Finally, we investigate the potential relation of giant tornadoes to other phenomena, which may also be produced by rotating magnetic field structures. A comparison to cyclones, magnetic tornadoes, and spicules implies that such events are more abundant and short-lived the smaller they are. This comparison might help to construct a power law for the effective atmospheric heating contribution as a function of spatial scale

  1. Silver linings: a personal memoir about Hurricane Katrina and fungal volatiles

    OpenAIRE

    Bennett, Joan W.

    2015-01-01

    In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the levees protecting New Orleans, Louisiana failed. Because approximately 80% of the city was under sea level, widespread flooding ensued. As a resident of New Orleans who had evacuated before the storm and a life-long researcher on filamentous fungi, I had known what to expect. After the hurricane I traveled home with a suitcase full of Petri dishes and sampling equipment so as to study the fungi that were “eating my house.” Not only were surfaces cove...

  2. Methods for tornado frequency calculation of nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Haibin; Li Lin

    2012-01-01

    In order to take probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plant tornado attack event, a method to calculate tornado frequency of nuclear power plant is introduced based on HAD 101/10 and NUREG/CR-4839 references. This method can consider history tornado frequency of the plant area, construction dimension, intensity various along with tornado path and area distribution and so on and calculate the frequency of different scale tornado. (authors)

  3. Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Harold E; Carbin, Gregory W; Marsh, Patrick T

    2014-10-17

    Whether or not climate change has had an impact on the occurrence of tornadoes in the United States has become a question of high public and scientific interest, but changes in how tornadoes are reported have made it difficult to answer it convincingly. We show that, excluding the weakest tornadoes, the mean annual number of tornadoes has remained relatively constant, but their variability of occurrence has increased since the 1970s. This is due to a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes combined with an increase in days with many tornadoes, leading to greater variability on annual and monthly time scales and changes in the timing of the start of the tornado season. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  4. Risk factors for tornado injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidson, M; Lybarger, J A; Parsons, J E; MacCormack, J N; Freeman, J I

    1990-12-01

    Tornadoes in North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984 caused 252 people to be injured seriously enough to require hospitalization and 59 to be killed. To evaluate risk factors, we gathered information on 238 (94%) of those hospitalized and 46 (78%) of those killed. Those hospitalized or deceased had statistically significantly more deep cuts, concussions, unconsciousness and broken bones than those with them at the time of the tornado who were not hospitalized or killed. People living in mobile homes were more likely to be hospitalized or die than people occupying conventional houses. Other risk factors for hospitalization or death included advanced age (60+ years), no physical protection (not having been covered with a blanket or other object), having been struck by broken window glass or other falling objects, home lifted off its foundation, collapsed ceiling or floor, or walls blown away. More awareness of the tornado risk before it strikes and better adherence to tornado protection guidelines could reduce injuries and deaths in the future.

  5. Tornado Strikes Southern Maryland

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Evening light catches the tops of towering thunderheads over the Mid-Atlantic states on April 28, 2002. The powerful storms spawned several tornados, one of which was classified as an F4 tornado. The powerful tornado touched down in the southern Maryland town of La Plata, destroying most of the historic downtown. The twister-one of the strongest ever to hit the state-beat a 24-mile swath running west to east through the state and claimed at least three lives. The image above was taken by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) at 7:15 PM Eastern Daylight Savings Time. A large version of the animation shows more detail. (5.9 MB Quicktime) Image courtesy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the GOES Project Science Office. Animation by Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC.

  6. GIS-BASED PREDICTION OF HURRICANE FLOOD INUNDATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    JUDI, DAVID [Los Alamos National Laboratory; KALYANAPU, ALFRED [Los Alamos National Laboratory; MCPHERSON, TIMOTHY [Los Alamos National Laboratory; BERSCHEID, ALAN [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2007-01-17

    A simulation environment is being developed for the prediction and analysis of the inundation consequences for infrastructure systems from extreme flood events. This decision support architecture includes a GIS-based environment for model input development, simulation integration tools for meteorological, hydrologic, and infrastructure system models and damage assessment tools for infrastructure systems. The GIS-based environment processes digital elevation models (30-m from the USGS), land use/cover (30-m NLCD), stream networks from the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) and soils data from the NRCS (STATSGO) to create stream network, subbasins, and cross-section shapefiles for drainage basins selected for analysis. Rainfall predictions are made by a numerical weather model and ingested in gridded format into the simulation environment. Runoff hydrographs are estimated using Green-Ampt infiltration excess runoff prediction and a 1D diffusive wave overland flow routing approach. The hydrographs are fed into the stream network and integrated in a dynamic wave routing module using the EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to predict flood depth. The flood depths are then transformed into inundation maps and exported for damage assessment. Hydrologic/hydraulic results are presented for Tropical Storm Allison.

  7. Self-organization in the tornado: the new approach in the tornado description

    OpenAIRE

    Bystrai, G. P.; Lykov, I. A

    2012-01-01

    For the mathematical modeling of highly non-equilibrium and nonlinear processes in a tornado in this paper a new approach based on nonlinear equations of momentum transfer with function of sources and sinks is suggested. In constructing the model thermodynamic description is used, which is not entered before and allows discovering new principles of self-organization in a tornado. This approach gives fairly consistent physical results. This is an attempt to answer some fundamental questions co...

  8. Mapping Hurricane Rita inland storm tide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berenbrock, Charles; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Blanchard, Stephen F.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

    2009-01-01

    Flood-inundation data are most useful for decision makers when presented in the context of maps of effected communities and (or) areas. But because the data are scarce and rarely cover the full extent of the flooding, interpolation and extrapolation of the information are needed. Many geographic information systems (GIS) provide various interpolation tools, but these tools often ignore the effects of the topographic and hydraulic features that influence flooding. A barrier mapping method was developed to improve maps of storm tide produced by Hurricane Rita. Maps were developed for the maximum storm tide and at 3-hour intervals from midnight (0000 hour) through noon (1200 hour) on September 24, 2005. The improved maps depict storm-tide elevations and the extent of flooding. The extent of storm-tide inundation from the improved maximum storm-tide map was compared to the extent of flood-inundation from a map prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The boundaries from these two maps generally compared quite well especially along the Calcasieu River. Also a cross-section profile that parallels the Louisiana coast was developed from the maximum storm-tide map and included FEMA high-water marks.

  9. Documentation and hydrologic analysis of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, October 29–30, 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suro, Thomas P.; Deetz, Anna; Hearn, Paul

    2016-11-17

    higher than the previously recorded period-of-record maximum. A comparison of peak storm-tide elevations to preliminary FEMA Coastal Flood Insurance Study flood elevations indicated that these areas experienced the highest recurrence intervals along the coast of New Jersey. Analysis showed peak storm-tide elevations exceeded the 100-year FEMA flood elevations in many parts of Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, and Bergen Counties, and peak storm-tide elevations at many locations in Monmouth County exceeded the 500-year recurrence interval.A level 1 HAZUS (HAZards United States) analysis was done for the counties in New Jersey affected by flooding to estimate total building stock losses. The aggregated total building stock losses estimated by HAZUS for New Jersey, on the basis of the final inundation verified by USGS high-water marks, was almost $19 billion. A comparison of Hurricane Sandy with historic coastal storms showed that peak storm-tide elevations associated with Hurricane Sandy exceeded most of the previously documented elevations associated with the storms of December 1992, March 1962, September 1960, and September 1944 at many coastal communities in New Jersey. This scientific investigation report was prepared in cooperation with FEMA to document flood processes and flood damages resulting from this storm and to assist in future flood mitigation actions in New Jersey.

  10. Hurricane Season Public Health Preparedness, Response, and Recovery Guidance for Health Care Providers, Response and Recovery Workers, and Affected Communities - CDC, 2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-22

    CDC and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) have guidance and technical materials available in both English and Spanish to help communities prepare for hurricanes and floods (Table 1). To help protect the health and safety of the public, responders, and clean-up workers during response and recovery operations from hurricanes and floods, CDC and ATSDR have developed public health guidance and other resources; many are available in both English and Spanish (Table 2).

  11. Tornado-borne missile speeds. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simiu, E.; Cordes, M.

    1976-04-01

    An investigation of the question of tornado-borne missile speeds was carried out, with a view to identify pertinent areas of uncertainty and to estimate credible tornado-borne missile speeds - within the limitations inherent in the present state of the art. The investigation consists of two parts: (1) a study in which a rational model for the missile motion is proposed, and numerical experiments are carried out corresponding to various assumptions on the initial conditions of the missile motion, the structure of the tornado flow, and the aerodynamic properties of the missile; (2) a theoretical and experimental study of tornado-borne missile aerodynamics, conducted by Colorado State Univ. (CSU) to be covered in a separate report by CSU. In the present report, the factors affecting missile motion and their influence upon such motion are examined

  12. SOLAR MAGNETIZED TORNADOES: ROTATIONAL MOTION IN A TORNADO-LIKE PROMINENCE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Su, Yang; Veronig, Astrid; Temmer, Manuela; Vanninathan, Kamalam [IGAM-Kanzelhöhe Observatory, Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Universitätsplatz 5, A-8010 Graz (Austria); Gömöry, Peter [Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, SK-05960 Tatranská Lomnica (Slovakia); Wang, Tongjiang [Department of Physics, the Catholic University of America, Washington, DC 20064 (United States); Gan, Weiqun; Li, YouPing, E-mail: yang.su@uni-graz.at [Key Laboratory of Dark Matter and Space Astronomy, Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China)

    2014-04-10

    Su et al. proposed a new explanation for filament formation and eruption, where filament barbs are rotating magnetic structures driven by underlying vortices on the surface. Such structures have been noticed as tornado-like prominences when they appear above the limb. They may play a key role as the source of plasma and twist in filaments. However, no observations have successfully distinguished rotational motion of the magnetic structures in tornado-like prominences from other motions such as oscillation and counter-streaming plasma flows. Here we report evidence of rotational motions in a tornado-like prominence. The spectroscopic observations in two coronal lines were obtained from a specifically designed Hinode/EIS observing program. The data revealed the existence of both cold and million-degree-hot plasma in the prominence leg, supporting the so-called prominence-corona transition region. The opposite velocities at the two sides of the prominence and their persistent time evolution, together with the periodic motions evident in SDO/AIA dark structures, indicate a rotational motion of both cold and hot plasma with a speed of ∼5 km s{sup –1}.

  13. SOLAR MAGNETIZED TORNADOES: ROTATIONAL MOTION IN A TORNADO-LIKE PROMINENCE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su, Yang; Veronig, Astrid; Temmer, Manuela; Vanninathan, Kamalam; Gömöry, Peter; Wang, Tongjiang; Gan, Weiqun; Li, YouPing

    2014-01-01

    Su et al. proposed a new explanation for filament formation and eruption, where filament barbs are rotating magnetic structures driven by underlying vortices on the surface. Such structures have been noticed as tornado-like prominences when they appear above the limb. They may play a key role as the source of plasma and twist in filaments. However, no observations have successfully distinguished rotational motion of the magnetic structures in tornado-like prominences from other motions such as oscillation and counter-streaming plasma flows. Here we report evidence of rotational motions in a tornado-like prominence. The spectroscopic observations in two coronal lines were obtained from a specifically designed Hinode/EIS observing program. The data revealed the existence of both cold and million-degree-hot plasma in the prominence leg, supporting the so-called prominence-corona transition region. The opposite velocities at the two sides of the prominence and their persistent time evolution, together with the periodic motions evident in SDO/AIA dark structures, indicate a rotational motion of both cold and hot plasma with a speed of ∼5 km s –1

  14. Hurricane Harvey Building Damage Assessment Using UAV Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeom, J.; Jung, J.; Chang, A.; Choi, I.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey which was extremely destructive major hurricane struck southern Texas, U.S.A on August 25, causing catastrophic flooding and storm damages. We visited Rockport suffered severe building destruction and conducted UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) surveying for building damage assessment. UAV provides very high resolution images compared with traditional remote sensing data. In addition, prompt and cost-effective damage assessment can be performed regardless of several limitations in other remote sensing platforms such as revisit interval of satellite platforms, complicated flight plan in aerial surveying, and cloud amounts. In this study, UAV flight and GPS surveying were conducted two weeks after hurricane damage to generate an orthomosaic image and a DEM (Digital Elevation Model). 3D region growing scheme has been proposed to quantitatively estimate building damages considering building debris' elevation change and spectral difference. The result showed that the proposed method can be used for high definition building damage assessment in a time- and cost-effective way.

  15. Estimation of Damage Costs Associated with Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, T. A.; Wauthier, C.; Zipp, K.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the possibility of creating a mathematical function that enables the estimation of flood-damage costs. We begin by examining the costs associated with past flood events in the United States. The data on these tropical storms and hurricanes are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With the location, extent of flooding, and damage reparation costs identified, we analyze variables such as: number of inches rained, land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. We seek to identify the leading drivers of high flood-damage costs and understand which variables play a large role in the costliness of these weather events. Upon completion of our mathematical analysis, we turn out attention to the 2017 natural disaster of Texas. We divide the region, as we did above, by land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. Then, we overlay the number of inches rained in those regions onto the divided landscape and apply our function. We hope to use these findings to estimate the potential flood-damage costs of Hurricane Harvey. This information is then transformed into a hazard map that could provide citizens and businesses of flood-stricken zones additional resources for their insurance selection process.

  16. Some New Ideas About Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, Edwin P.

    1975-01-01

    Based on the assumption that if occupants of buildings knew which places in these buildings were relatively safe in disasters such as tornadoes, and if they had sufficient warning, architects and engineers feel there is a significant opportunity to advance the art of school (or building) design to provide tornado-protected areas. (EB)

  17. Modeling the Excitation of Seismic Waves by the Joplin Tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valovcin, Anne; Tanimoto, Toshiro

    2017-10-01

    Tornadoes generate seismic signals when they contact the ground. Here we examine the signals excited by the Joplin tornado, which passed within 2 km of a station in the Earthscope Transportable Array. We model the tornado-generated vertical seismic signal at low frequencies (0.01-0.03 Hz) and solve for the strength of the seismic source. The resulting source amplitude is largest when the tornado was reported to be strongest (EF 4-5), and the amplitude is smallest when the tornado was weak (EF 0-2). A further understanding of the relationship between source amplitude and tornado intensity could open up new ways to study tornadoes from the ground.

  18. Population and energy elasticity of tornado casualties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricker, Tyler; Elsner, James B.; Jagger, Thomas H.

    2017-04-01

    Tornadoes are capable of catastrophic destruction and mass casualties, but there are yet no estimates of how sensitive the number of casualties are to changes in the number of people in harm's way or to changes in tornado energy. Here the relationship between tornado casualties (deaths and injuries), population, and energy dissipation is quantified using the economic concept of "elasticity." Records of casualties from individual tornadoes over the period 2007-2015 are fit to a regression model. The coefficient on the population term (population elasticity) indicates that a doubling in population increases the casualty rate by 21% [(17, 24)%, 95% credible interval]. The coefficient on the energy term (energy elasticity) indicates that a doubling in energy dissipation leads to a 33% [(30, 35)%, 95% credible interval] increase in the casualty rate. The difference in elasticity values show that on average, changes in energy dissipation have been relatively more important in explaining tornado casualties than changes in population. Assuming no changes in warning effectiveness or mitigation efforts, these elasticity estimates can be used to project changes in casualties given the known population trends and possible trends in tornado activity.

  19. The probability of a tornado missile hitting a target

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodman, J.; Koch, J.E.

    1983-01-01

    It is shown that tornado missile transportation is a diffusion Markovian process. Therefore, the Green's function method is applied for the estimation of the probability of hitting a unit target area. This propability is expressed through a joint density of tornado intensity and path area, a probability of tornado missile injection and a tornado missile height distribution. (orig.)

  20. Infrasonic Emissions From A Tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrin, Christopher; Elbing, Brian

    2017-11-01

    Tornadoes cause dozens of deaths and significant damage throughout the United States every year. Tornado-producing storm systems emit infrasound (sound at frequencies below human hearing) up to 2 hours before tornadogenesis. Weak atmospheric attenuation at these frequencies allows them to be detected hundreds of miles away. Hence, passive infrasonic monitoring may be used for long-range study of tornadogenesis. This requires characterization of infrasound during the life of a tornado and from other background sources. This is being accomplished as part of the Collaboration Leading Operational UAS Development for Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (CLOUD-MAP) project, a multi-university collaboration focused on the development and implementation of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and their integration with sensors for atmospheric measurement. This presentation will report findings from a fixed infrasonic microphone that has been continuously monitoring the atmosphere since September 2, 2016. Infrasound from a tornado that occurred 19 km from the microphone on May 11, 2017 will be presented as well as an overview of other infrasonic observations. This work was supported by NSF Grant 1539070.

  1. Vorticity budget of a tornado-like vortex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sassa, Koji; Takemura, Saki, E-mail: sassa@kochi-u.ac.jp [Department of Applied Science, Kochi University (Japan)

    2011-12-22

    We evaluated the vorticity budget of a tornado-like vortex by measuring vertical and horizontal circulations of it. Though spiral horizontal vortices are clearly observed to converge and tilted into the tornado-like vortex, their circulation is quite small. The conversion of the vertical vorticity concentrated at the side of the spiral horizontal vortices was found to mainly contribute to the maintenance of the tornado-like vortex.

  2. Impact assessment of tornado against nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Daisuke

    2015-01-01

    The impact assessment of tornado against nuclear power plants conforms to the 'Assessment guide for tornado effect on nuclear power plants' stipulated by the Nuclear Regulation Authority. In face of the assessment, important items are the setting of the maximum wind speed considered in design, and the setting of a flying object evaluation model, on the basis of observation results. The Japan Society of Maintenology summarized the verification results of the concept on the setting of tornado design and flying object valuation model, the contents of which are explained here. The following are explained: (1) validity of the setting of tornado design in the Assessment Guide, (2) analysis of synoptic field, (3) study on the regional characteristics of tornado occurrence environmental field by means of the analysis of synoptic field and gust associated index, and (4) setting of tornado design based on the above (1)-(3). Next, on the flying object evaluation model, the authors picked up the Rankine vortex model and Fujita model, and verified the reproducibility of the models using the features of each and the actual state of tornado damage. (A.O.)

  3. Rationale for reduced tornado design bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutherford, P.D.; Ho, H.W.; Hartung, J.A.; Kastenberg, W.E.

    1985-01-01

    This paper provides a rationale for relaxing the present NRC tornado design requirements, which are based on a design basis tornado (DBT) whose frequency of exceedance is 10 -7 per year. It is proposed that a reduced DBT frequency of 10 -5 to 10 -6 per year is acceptable. This change in the tornado design bases for LMFBRs (and possibly all types of nuclear plants) is justified based on (1) existing NRC regulations and guidelines, (2) probabilistic arguments, (3) consistency with NRC trial safety goals, and (4) cost-benefit analysis

  4. Tornadoes Strike Northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    A series of tornadoes ripped through the Upper Midwest region of the United States in the evening of June 7, 2007. At least five different tornadoes touched down in Wisconsin, according to the Associated Press, one of which tore through the Bear Paw Resort in northern Wisconsin. Despite dropping as much as fifteen centimeters (six inches) of rain in some places and baseball-size hail in others, authorities were reporting no deaths attributable to the storm system, and only a smattering of injuries, but considerable property damage in some areas. When the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite observed the area on June 9, 2007, the track torn through the woods by one of the tornadoes stands out quite clearly. This photo-like image uses data collected by MODIS in the normal human vision range to give a familiar natural-looking appearance. The landscape is largely a checkerboard of farms, towns, roads, and cities. The pale land is predominantly farmland where crops have not fully grown in yet. Dark blue shows the winding path of rivers and lakes dotting the landscape. The large blue lake on the east (right) side of the image is Lake Michigan. Towns and cities, including the city of Green Bay, are gray. To the north side, farmland gives way to dark green as land use shifts from agriculture to the Menominee Indian Reservation and Nicolet National Forest. The diagonal slash through the dark green forested land shows the tornado track. Bare land was revealed where the tornado tore down trees or stripped vegetation off the branches. The high-resolution image provided above is at MODIS' full spatial resolution (level of detail) of 250 meters per pixel. The MODIS Rapid Response System provides this image at additional resolutions.

  5. Hazard Experience, Geophysical Vulnerability, and Flood Risk Perceptions in a Postdisaster City, the Case of New Orleans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gotham, Kevin Fox; Campanella, Richard; Lauve-Moon, Katie; Powers, Bradford

    2018-02-01

    This article investigates the determinants of flood risk perceptions in New Orleans, Louisiana (United States), a deltaic coastal city highly vulnerable to seasonal nuisance flooding and hurricane-induced deluges and storm surges. Few studies have investigated the influence of hazard experience, geophysical vulnerability (hazard proximity), and risk perceptions in cities undergoing postdisaster recovery and rebuilding. We use ordinal logistic regression techniques to analyze experiential, geophysical, and sociodemographic variables derived from a survey of 384 residents in seven neighborhoods. We find that residents living in neighborhoods that flooded during Hurricane Katrina exhibit higher levels of perceived risk than those residents living in neighborhoods that did not flood. In addition, findings suggest that flood risk perception is positively associated with female gender, lower income, and direct flood experiences. In conclusion, we discuss the implications of these findings for theoretical and empirical research on environmental risk, flood risk communication strategies, and flood hazards planning. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Magnetohydrodynamic Models of Molecular Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Au, Kelvin; Fiege, Jason D.

    2017-07-01

    Recent observations near the Galactic Center (GC) have found several molecular filaments displaying striking helically wound morphology that are collectively known as molecular tornadoes. We investigate the equilibrium structure of these molecular tornadoes by formulating a magnetohydrodynamic model of a rotating, helically magnetized filament. A special analytical solution is derived where centrifugal forces balance exactly with toroidal magnetic stress. From the physics of torsional Alfvén waves we derive a constraint that links the toroidal flux-to-mass ratio and the pitch angle of the helical field to the rotation laws, which we find to be an important component in describing the molecular tornado structure. The models are compared to the Ostriker solution for isothermal, nonmagnetic, nonrotating filaments. We find that neither the analytic model nor the Alfvén wave model suffer from the unphysical density inversions noted by other authors. A Monte Carlo exploration of our parameter space is constrained by observational measurements of the Pigtail Molecular Cloud, the Double Helix Nebula, and the GC Molecular Tornado. Observable properties such as the velocity dispersion, filament radius, linear mass, and surface pressure can be used to derive three dimensionless constraints for our dimensionless models of these three objects. A virial analysis of these constrained models is studied for these three molecular tornadoes. We find that self-gravity is relatively unimportant, whereas magnetic fields and external pressure play a dominant role in the confinement and equilibrium radial structure of these objects.

  7. Magnetohydrodynamic Models of Molecular Tornadoes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Au, Kelvin; Fiege, Jason D., E-mail: fiege@physics.umanitoba.ca [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manitoba Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2 (Canada)

    2017-07-10

    Recent observations near the Galactic Center (GC) have found several molecular filaments displaying striking helically wound morphology that are collectively known as molecular tornadoes. We investigate the equilibrium structure of these molecular tornadoes by formulating a magnetohydrodynamic model of a rotating, helically magnetized filament. A special analytical solution is derived where centrifugal forces balance exactly with toroidal magnetic stress. From the physics of torsional Alfvén waves we derive a constraint that links the toroidal flux-to-mass ratio and the pitch angle of the helical field to the rotation laws, which we find to be an important component in describing the molecular tornado structure. The models are compared to the Ostriker solution for isothermal, nonmagnetic, nonrotating filaments. We find that neither the analytic model nor the Alfvén wave model suffer from the unphysical density inversions noted by other authors. A Monte Carlo exploration of our parameter space is constrained by observational measurements of the Pigtail Molecular Cloud, the Double Helix Nebula, and the GC Molecular Tornado. Observable properties such as the velocity dispersion, filament radius, linear mass, and surface pressure can be used to derive three dimensionless constraints for our dimensionless models of these three objects. A virial analysis of these constrained models is studied for these three molecular tornadoes. We find that self-gravity is relatively unimportant, whereas magnetic fields and external pressure play a dominant role in the confinement and equilibrium radial structure of these objects.

  8. Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Kiju; Shavitt, Sharon; Viswanathan, Madhu; Hilbe, Joseph M

    2014-06-17

    Do people judge hurricane risks in the context of gender-based expectations? We use more than six decades of death rates from US hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes. Laboratory experiments indicate that this is because hurricane names lead to gender-based expectations about severity and this, in turn, guides respondents' preparedness to take protective action. This finding indicates an unfortunate and unintended consequence of the gendered naming of hurricanes, with important implications for policymakers, media practitioners, and the general public concerning hurricane communication and preparedness.

  9. The Effect of Hurricanes on Annual Precipitation in Maryland and the Connection to Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jackie; Liu, Zhong

    2015-01-01

    Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change

  10. Predictors of business return in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina S N Lam

    Full Text Available We analyzed the business reopening process in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, which hit the region on August 29, 2005, to better understand what the major predictors were and how their impacts changed through time. A telephone survey of businesses in New Orleans was conducted in October 2007, 26 months after Hurricane Katrina. The data were analyzed using a modified spatial probit regression model to evaluate the importance of each predictor variable through time. The results suggest that the two most important reopening predictors throughout all time periods were the flood depth at the business location and business size as represented by its wages in a logarithmic form. Flood depth was a significant negative predictor and had the largest marginal effects on the reopening probabilities. Smaller businesses had lower reopening probabilities than larger ones. However, the nonlinear response of business size to the reopening probability suggests that recovery aid would be most effective for smaller businesses than for larger ones. The spatial spillovers effect was a significant positive predictor but only for the first nine months. The findings show clearly that flood protection is the overarching issue for New Orleans. A flood protection plan that reduces the vulnerability and length of flooding would be the first and foremost step to mitigate the negative effects from climate-related hazards and enable speedy recovery. The findings cast doubt on the current coastal protection efforts and add to the current debate of whether coastal Louisiana will be sustainable or too costly to protect from further land loss and flooding given the threat of sea-level rise. Finally, a plan to help small businesses to return would also be an effective strategy for recovery, and the temporal window of opportunity that generates the greatest impacts would be the first 6∼9 months after the disaster.

  11. Predictors of business return in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Nina S N; Arenas, Helbert; Pace, Kelley; LeSage, James; Campanella, Richard

    2012-01-01

    We analyzed the business reopening process in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, which hit the region on August 29, 2005, to better understand what the major predictors were and how their impacts changed through time. A telephone survey of businesses in New Orleans was conducted in October 2007, 26 months after Hurricane Katrina. The data were analyzed using a modified spatial probit regression model to evaluate the importance of each predictor variable through time. The results suggest that the two most important reopening predictors throughout all time periods were the flood depth at the business location and business size as represented by its wages in a logarithmic form. Flood depth was a significant negative predictor and had the largest marginal effects on the reopening probabilities. Smaller businesses had lower reopening probabilities than larger ones. However, the nonlinear response of business size to the reopening probability suggests that recovery aid would be most effective for smaller businesses than for larger ones. The spatial spillovers effect was a significant positive predictor but only for the first nine months. The findings show clearly that flood protection is the overarching issue for New Orleans. A flood protection plan that reduces the vulnerability and length of flooding would be the first and foremost step to mitigate the negative effects from climate-related hazards and enable speedy recovery. The findings cast doubt on the current coastal protection efforts and add to the current debate of whether coastal Louisiana will be sustainable or too costly to protect from further land loss and flooding given the threat of sea-level rise. Finally, a plan to help small businesses to return would also be an effective strategy for recovery, and the temporal window of opportunity that generates the greatest impacts would be the first 6∼9 months after the disaster.

  12. DOE (Department of Energy) natural phenomena guidelines flood design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCann, M.W.; Savy, J.B.

    1989-01-01

    Design and evaluation guidelines for DOE (Department of Energy) facilities subjected to earthquake, wind/tornado, and flood have been developed and presented in UCRL-15910 (Ref.1). This paper summarizes Chapter 6 of UCRL-15910 describing the philosophy and procedures for the design or evaluation of facilities for flood. The flood design and evaluation guidelines seek to ensure that DOE facilities satisfy the performance goals described in UCRL-15910. The guidelines are applicable to new and existing construction; however, in the evaluation of existing facilities, fewer design options may be available to satisfy the performance goals. Evaluation of the flood design for a facility consists of: (1) defining the design basis flood (DBFL), (2) evaluating site conditions (e.g., facility location, location of openings and doorways), and (3) assessing flood design strategies (e.g., build above DBFL levels, harden the site)

  13. Science 101: What Causes Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Bill

    2016-01-01

    What causes severe thunderstorms and tornadoes? Tornadoes, often accompanied by severe thunderstorms and hail, form in pretty much the same way as severe thunderstorms. In the continental United States, tornadoes usually form in spring and summer, when warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico moves across the continent from southeast to northwest…

  14. Tornado intensity estimated from damage path dimensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsner, James B; Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, Ian J

    2014-01-01

    The Newcastle/Moore and El Reno tornadoes of May 2013 are recent reminders of the destructive power of tornadoes. A direct estimate of a tornado's power is difficult and dangerous to get. An indirect estimate on a categorical scale is available from a post-storm survery of the damage. Wind speed bounds are attached to the scale, but the scale is not adequate for analyzing trends in tornado intensity separate from trends in tornado frequency. Here tornado intensity on a continuum is estimated from damage path length and width, which are measured on continuous scales and correlated to the EF rating. The wind speeds on the EF scale are treated as interval censored data and regressed onto the path dimensions and fatalities. The regression model indicates a 25% increase in expected intensity over a threshold intensity of 29 m s(-1) for a 100 km increase in path length and a 17% increase in expected intensity for a one km increase in path width. The model shows a 43% increase in the expected intensity when fatalities are observed controlling for path dimensions. The estimated wind speeds correlate at a level of .77 (.34, .93) [95% confidence interval] with a small sample of wind speeds estimated independently from a doppler radar calibration. The estimated wind speeds allow analyses to be done on the tornado database that are not possible with the categorical scale. The modeled intensities can be used in climatology and in environmental and engineering applications. Research is needed to understand the upward trends in path length and width.

  15. Tornado intensity estimated from damage path dimensions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James B Elsner

    Full Text Available The Newcastle/Moore and El Reno tornadoes of May 2013 are recent reminders of the destructive power of tornadoes. A direct estimate of a tornado's power is difficult and dangerous to get. An indirect estimate on a categorical scale is available from a post-storm survery of the damage. Wind speed bounds are attached to the scale, but the scale is not adequate for analyzing trends in tornado intensity separate from trends in tornado frequency. Here tornado intensity on a continuum is estimated from damage path length and width, which are measured on continuous scales and correlated to the EF rating. The wind speeds on the EF scale are treated as interval censored data and regressed onto the path dimensions and fatalities. The regression model indicates a 25% increase in expected intensity over a threshold intensity of 29 m s(-1 for a 100 km increase in path length and a 17% increase in expected intensity for a one km increase in path width. The model shows a 43% increase in the expected intensity when fatalities are observed controlling for path dimensions. The estimated wind speeds correlate at a level of .77 (.34, .93 [95% confidence interval] with a small sample of wind speeds estimated independently from a doppler radar calibration. The estimated wind speeds allow analyses to be done on the tornado database that are not possible with the categorical scale. The modeled intensities can be used in climatology and in environmental and engineering applications. Research is needed to understand the upward trends in path length and width.

  16. Dual-Polarimetric Radar-Based Tornado Debris Signatures and Paths Associated with Tornadoes Over Northern Alabama During the Historic Outbreak of 27 April 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Christopher J.; Schultz, Elise V.; Petersen, Walter A.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Knupp, Kevin R.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Jedloved, Gary J.; Carcione, Brian C.; Darden, Christopher B.; hide

    2012-01-01

    A historic tornado and severe weather outbreak devastated much of the southeastern United States between 25 and 28 April 2011. On 27 April 2011, northern Alabama was particularly hard hit by 40 tornadoes, including 6 that reached EF-4 to EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita damage scale. In northern Alabama alone, there were approximately 100 fatalities and hundreds of people who were injured or lost their homes during the havoc caused by these violent tornadic storms. Many of these tornadoes occurred within range of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band dual-polarimetric). A unique capability of dual-polarimetric radar is the near-real time identification of lofted debris associated with ongoing tornadoes. The focus of this paper is to analyze the dual-polarimetric radar-inferred tornado debris signatures in 6 tornadoes in North Alabama on April 27, 2011. Several of these debris signatures were disseminated in real-time to the NWS Huntsville and local media to confirm storm spotter reports, confidence to enhance wording within warnings, and accurately pinpoint the locations of tornadoes for residents downstream of the storm. Also, the debris signature locations were used in post-event storm surveys to help locate areas of damage in regions where damage went unreported, or to help separate tornado tracks that were in close proximity to each other. Furthermore, the relative locations of the debris and damage paths for long track EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes will be ascertained by careful comparison of the ARMOR analysis with NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) satellite imagery of the tornado damage scenes and the National Weather Service tornado damage surveys.

  17. Review of worldwide occurrence of tornadoes

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Goliger, Adam M

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available of about 3]10~5/yr/km2. Tornado events were also reported in Holland, Spain, Switzerland and Malta. 6. Africa Tornado events have been recorded in several Southern African countries (Bot- swana, Swaziland and Namibia) and possibly over Liberia, Ivory Coast...

  18. Solar Tornadoes Triggered by Interaction between Filaments and EUV Jets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Huadong; Zhang, Jun; Ma, Suli [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Yan, Xiaoli [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011 (China); Xue, Jianchao, E-mail: hdchen@nao.cas.cn, E-mail: zjun@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory for Dark Matter and Space Science, Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China)

    2017-05-20

    We investigate the formations and evolutions of two successive solar tornadoes in/near AR 12297 during 2015 March 19–20. Recurrent EUV jets close to two filaments were detected along a large-scale coronal loop prior to the appearances of the tornadoes. Under the disturbances from the activities, the filaments continually ascended and finally interacted with the loops tracked by the jets. Subsequently, the structures of the filaments and the loop were merged together, probably via magnetic reconnections, and formed tornado-like structures with a long spiral arm. Our observations suggest that solar tornadoes can be triggered by the interaction between filaments and nearby coronal jets, which has rarely been reported before. At the earlier development phase of the first tornado, about 30 small-scale sub-jets appeared in the tornado’s arm, accompanied by local EUV brightenings. They have an ejection direction approximately vertical to the axis of the arm and a typical maximum speed of ∼280 km s{sup −1}. During the ruinations of the two tornadoes, fast plasma outflows from the strong EUV brightenings inside tornadoes are observed, in company with the untangling or unwinding of the highly twisted tornado structures. These observational features indicate that self reconnections probably occurred between the tangled magnetic fields of the tornadoes and resulted in the rapid disintegrations and disappearances of the tornadoes. According to the reconnection theory, we also derive the field strength of the tornado core to be ∼8 G.

  19. Solar Tornadoes Triggered by Interaction between Filaments and EUV Jets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Huadong; Zhang, Jun; Ma, Suli; Yan, Xiaoli; Xue, Jianchao

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the formations and evolutions of two successive solar tornadoes in/near AR 12297 during 2015 March 19–20. Recurrent EUV jets close to two filaments were detected along a large-scale coronal loop prior to the appearances of the tornadoes. Under the disturbances from the activities, the filaments continually ascended and finally interacted with the loops tracked by the jets. Subsequently, the structures of the filaments and the loop were merged together, probably via magnetic reconnections, and formed tornado-like structures with a long spiral arm. Our observations suggest that solar tornadoes can be triggered by the interaction between filaments and nearby coronal jets, which has rarely been reported before. At the earlier development phase of the first tornado, about 30 small-scale sub-jets appeared in the tornado’s arm, accompanied by local EUV brightenings. They have an ejection direction approximately vertical to the axis of the arm and a typical maximum speed of ∼280 km s −1 . During the ruinations of the two tornadoes, fast plasma outflows from the strong EUV brightenings inside tornadoes are observed, in company with the untangling or unwinding of the highly twisted tornado structures. These observational features indicate that self reconnections probably occurred between the tangled magnetic fields of the tornadoes and resulted in the rapid disintegrations and disappearances of the tornadoes. According to the reconnection theory, we also derive the field strength of the tornado core to be ∼8 G.

  20. Solar Tornadoes Triggered by Interaction between Filaments and EUV Jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huadong; Zhang, Jun; Ma, Suli; Yan, Xiaoli; Xue, Jianchao

    2017-05-01

    We investigate the formations and evolutions of two successive solar tornadoes in/near AR 12297 during 2015 March 19-20. Recurrent EUV jets close to two filaments were detected along a large-scale coronal loop prior to the appearances of the tornadoes. Under the disturbances from the activities, the filaments continually ascended and finally interacted with the loops tracked by the jets. Subsequently, the structures of the filaments and the loop were merged together, probably via magnetic reconnections, and formed tornado-like structures with a long spiral arm. Our observations suggest that solar tornadoes can be triggered by the interaction between filaments and nearby coronal jets, which has rarely been reported before. At the earlier development phase of the first tornado, about 30 small-scale sub-jets appeared in the tornado’s arm, accompanied by local EUV brightenings. They have an ejection direction approximately vertical to the axis of the arm and a typical maximum speed of ˜280 km s-1. During the ruinations of the two tornadoes, fast plasma outflows from the strong EUV brightenings inside tornadoes are observed, in company with the untangling or unwinding of the highly twisted tornado structures. These observational features indicate that self reconnections probably occurred between the tangled magnetic fields of the tornadoes and resulted in the rapid disintegrations and disappearances of the tornadoes. According to the reconnection theory, we also derive the field strength of the tornado core to be ˜8 G.

  1. Brief communication: Loss of life due to Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.; Godfroy, Maartje; Sebastian, Antonia; Kolen, Bas

    2018-04-01

    An analysis was made of the loss of life caused by Hurricane Harvey. Information was collected for 70 fatalities that occurred due to the event and were recovered within the first 2 weeks after landfall. Most fatalities occurred due to drowning (81 %), particularly in and around vehicles. Males (70 %) and people over 50 years old (56 %) were overrepresented in the dataset. More than half of the fatalities occurred in the greater Houston area (n = 37), where heavy rainfall and dam releases caused unprecedented urban flooding. The majority of fatalities were recovered outside the designated 100- and 500-year flood hazard areas.

  2. Hurricane Irene: a Wake Up Call for New York City?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Botzen, W.J.W.

    2012-01-01

    The weakening of Irene from a Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm resulted in less damage in New York City (NYC) than initially was anticipated. It is widely recognized that the storm surge and associated flooding could have been much more severe. In a recent study, we showed that a direct hit

  3. Channel Shallowing as Mitigation of Coastal Flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip M. Orton

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Here, we demonstrate that reductions in the depth of inlets or estuary channels can be used to reduce or prevent coastal flooding. A validated hydrodynamic model of Jamaica Bay, New York City (NYC, is used to test nature-based adaptation measures in ameliorating flooding for NYC's two largest historical coastal flood events. In addition to control runs with modern bathymetry, three altered landscape scenarios are tested: (1 increasing the area of wetlands to their 1879 footprint and bathymetry, but leaving deep shipping channels unaltered; (2 shallowing all areas deeper than 2 m in the bay to be 2 m below Mean Low Water; (3 shallowing only the narrowest part of the inlet to the bay. These three scenarios are deliberately extreme and designed to evaluate the leverage each approach exerts on water levels. They result in peak water level reductions of 0.3%, 15%, and 6.8% for Hurricane Sandy, and 2.4%, 46% and 30% for the Category-3 hurricane of 1821, respectively (bay-wide averages. These results suggest that shallowing can provide greater flood protection than wetland restoration, and it is particularly effective at reducing "fast-pulse" storm surges that rise and fall quickly over several hours, like that of the 1821 storm. Nonetheless, the goal of flood mitigation must be weighed against economic, navigation, and ecological needs, and practical concerns such as the availability of sediment.

  4. Two Categories of Apparent Tornado-like Prominences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Sara F.; Venkataramanasastry, Aparna

    2014-06-01

    Two categories of solar prominences have been described in the literature as having a pattern of mass motions and/or a shape similar to terrestrial tornados. We first identify the two categories associated with prominences in the historic literature and then show that counterparts do exist for both in recent literature but one has not been called a tornado prominence. One category described as being similar to tornados is associated with the barbs of quiescent filaments but barbs appear to have rotational motion only under special conditions. H alpha Doppler observations from Helio Research confirm that this category is an illusion in our mind’s eye resulting from counterstreaming in the large barbs of quiescent filaments. The second category is a special case of rotational motion occurring during the early stages of some erupting prominences, in recent years called the roll effect in erupting prominences. In these cases, the eruption begins with the sideways rolling of the top of a prominence. As the eruption proceeds the rolling motion propagates down one leg or both legs of an erupting prominence depending on whether the eruption is asymmetric or symmetric respectively. As an asymmetric eruption proceeds, the longer lasting leg becomes nearly vertical and has true rotational motion. If only this phase of the eruption was observed, as in the historic cases, it was called a tornado prominence and spectra recorded in these cases provide proof of the rotational motion. When one observes an entire eruption which exhibits the rolling motion, as accomplished at Helio Research, the similarity to a tornado is lost because the event as a whole has quite a different nature and the analogy to a terrestrial tornado not longer appears suitable or helpful in understanding the observed and deduced physical processes. Our conclusion is that there are no solar prominences with motions that are usefully described as tornado or tornado-like events aside from the fun of observing

  5. Florida's model of nursing home Medicaid reimbursement for disaster-related expenses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kali S; Hyer, Kathryn; Brown, Lisa M; Polivka-West, LuMarie; Branch, Laurence G

    2010-04-01

    This study describes Florida's model of Medicaid nursing home (NH) reimbursement to compensate NHs for disaster-related expenses incurred as a result of 8 hurricanes within a 2-year period. This Florida model can serve as a demonstration for a national model for disaster-related reimbursement. Florida reimburses NHs for approved disaster-related costs through hurricane interim rate requests (IRRs). The state developed its unique Medicaid per diem rate temporary add-on by adapting its standard rate-setting reimbursement methodology. To understand the payment mechanisms and the costs that facilities incurred as a result of natural disasters, we examined the IRRs and cost reports for facilities requesting and receiving reimbursement. Cost reports and IRR applications indicated that Florida Medicaid spent close to $16 million to pay for hurricane-related costs to NHs. Without Florida's Hurricane IRR program, many facilities would have not been reimbursed for their hurricane-related costs. Florida's model is one that Medicare and other states should consider adopting to ensure that NHs receive adequate reimbursement for disaster-related expenses, including tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, blizzards, and other catastrophic events.

  6. Circular Conditional Autoregressive Modeling of Vector Fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modlin, Danny; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian

    2012-02-01

    As hurricanes approach landfall, there are several hazards for which coastal populations must be prepared. Damaging winds, torrential rains, and tornadoes play havoc with both the coast and inland areas; but, the biggest seaside menace to life and property is the storm surge. Wind fields are used as the primary forcing for the numerical forecasts of the coastal ocean response to hurricane force winds, such as the height of the storm surge and the degree of coastal flooding. Unfortunately, developments in deterministic modeling of these forcings have been hindered by computational expenses. In this paper, we present a multivariate spatial model for vector fields, that we apply to hurricane winds. We parameterize the wind vector at each site in polar coordinates and specify a circular conditional autoregressive (CCAR) model for the vector direction, and a spatial CAR model for speed. We apply our framework for vector fields to hurricane surface wind fields for Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and compare our CCAR model to prior methods that decompose wind speed and direction into its N-S and W-E cardinal components.

  7. Modern tornado design of nuclear and other potentially hazardous facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevenson, J.D.; Zhao, Y.

    1996-01-01

    Tornado wind loads and other tornado phenomena, including tornado missiles and differential pressure effects, have not usually been considered in the design of conventional industrial, commercial, or residential facilities in the United States; however, tornado resistance has often become a design requirement for certain hazardous facilities, such as large nuclear power plants and nuclear materials and waste storage facilities, as well as large liquefied natural gas storage facilities. This article provides a review of current procedures for the design of hazardous industrial facilities to resist tornado effects. 23 refs., 19 figs., 13 tabs

  8. Cold-Season Tornadoes: Climatological, Meteorological, and Social Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Childs, Samuel J.

    Tornadoes that occur during the cold season, defined here as November-February (NDJF), pose many unique societal risks. For example, people can be caught off-guard because in general one does not expect severe weather and tornadoes during winter months. The public can also be unsuspecting of significant weather due to the bustle of major holidays like Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's, when most people are concerned with family activities and not thinking about the weather. Cold-season tornadoes also have a propensity to be nocturnal and occur most frequently in the South and Southeastern U.S., where variable terrain, inadequate resources, and a relatively high mobile home density add additional social vulnerabilities. Over the period 1953-2015 within a study domain of (25-42.5°N, 75-100°W), some 937 people lost their lives as a result of NDJF tornadoes. Despite this enhanced societal risk of cold-season tornadoes in the South, very little attention has been given to their meteorological characteristics and climate patterns, and public awareness of their potential impacts is lacking. This thesis aims to greatly advance the current state of knowledge of NDJF tornadoes by providing an in-depth investigation from three different science perspectives. First, a climatology of all (E)F1-(E)F5 NDJF tornadoes is developed, spanning the period 1953-2015 within a domain of (25-42.5°N, 75-100°W), in order to assess frequency and spatial changes over time. A large increasing trend in cold-season tornado occurrence is found across much of the Southeastern U.S., with the greatest uptick in Tennessee, while a decreasing trend is found across eastern Oklahoma. Spectral analysis reveals a cyclic pattern of enhanced NDJF counts every 3-7 years, coincident with the known period for ENSO. Indeed, La Nina episodes are found to be correlated with NDJF tornado counts, although a stronger teleconnection correlation exists with the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which explains 25% of

  9. Family emergency preparedness plans in severe tornadoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong, Zhen; Liang, Daan; Luo, Jianjun

    2014-01-01

    Tornadoes, with warnings usually issued just minutes before their touchdowns, pose great threats to properties and people's physical and mental health. Few studies have empirically investigated the association of family emergency preparedness planning and observed protective behaviors in the context of tornadoes. The purpose of this study was to examine predictors for the action of taking shelter at the time of tornadoes. Specifically, this study investigated whether having a family emergency preparedness plan was associated with higher likelihood of taking shelter upon receiving tornado warnings. This study also examined the effects of socioeconomic status and functional limitations on taking such actions. A telephone survey based on random sampling was conducted in 2012 with residents in Tuscaloosa AL and Joplin MO. Each city experienced considerable damages, injuries, and casualties after severe tornadoes (EF-4 and EF-5) in 2011. The working sample included 892 respondents. Analysis was conducted in early 2013. Logistic regression identified emergency preparedness planning as the only shared factor that increased the likelihood of taking shelter in both cities and the only significant factor in Joplin. In Tuscaloosa, being female and white also increased the likelihood of taking shelter. Disability was not found to have an effect. This study provided empirical evidence on the importance of having a family emergency preparedness plan in mitigating the risk of tornadoes. The findings could be applied to other rapid-onset disasters. © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine Published by American Journal of Preventive Medicine All rights reserved.

  10. Re-interpreting Prominences Classified as Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Sara F.; Venkataramanasastry, Aparna

    2015-04-01

    Some papers in the recent literature identify tornado prominences with barbs of quiescent prominences while papers in the much older historic literature include a second category of tornado prominence that does not correspond to a barb of a quiescent prominence. The latter are described as prominence mass rotating around a nearly vertical axis prior to its eruption and the rotation was verified by spectral measurements. From H alpha Doppler-shifted mass motions recorded at Helio Research or the Dutch Open Telescope, we illustrate how the apparent tornado-like motions, identified with barbs, are illusions in our mind’s eye resulting from poorly resolved counterstreaming threads of mass in the barbs of quiescent prominences. In contrast, we confirm the second category of rotational motion in prominences shortly before and during eruption. In addition, we identify this second category as part of the late phase of a phenomenon called the roll effect in erupting prominences. In these cases, the eruption begins with the sideways rolling of the top of a prominence. As the eruption proceeds the rolling motion propagates down one leg or both legs of the prominence depending on whether the eruption is asymmetric or symmetric respectively. As an asymmetric eruption continues, the longer lasting leg becomes nearly vertical and its rotational motion also continues. If only this phase of the eruption was observed, as in some historic cases, it was called a tornado prominence. However, when we now observe entire eruptions in time-lapse sequences, the similarity to terrestrial tornadoes is lost. We conclude that neither prominence barbs, that give the illusion of rotation, nor the cases of true rotational motion, in the legs of erupting prominences, are usefully described as tornado prominences when the complete prominence structure or complete erupting event is observed.

  11. Brief communication: Post-event analysis of loss of life due to hurricane Harvey

    OpenAIRE

    Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.; Godfroy, Maartje; Sebastian, Antonia; Kolen, Bas

    2018-01-01

    An analysis was made of the loss of life directly caused by hurricane Harvey. Information was collected for 70 fatalities that occurred directly due to the event. Most of the fatalities occurred in the greater Houston area, which was most severely affected by extreme rainfall and heavy flooding. The majority of fatalities in this area were recovered outside the designated 100 and 500 year flood zones. Most fatalities occurred due to drowning (81 %), particularly in and around vehicles...

  12. US tornadoes. Part 1: 70-year statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, T. T.

    1987-01-01

    If tornadoes were counted as the Gross National Product, no other country on the surface of the earth could come even close to the United States. During the recent 70 year period, the United States produced 31,054 tornadoes which left behind a cumulative path of 132,005 miles (212,396 km) which would circle the world 5.3 times along the equator. In completing the book, staff members of the Satellite and Mesometeorlogy Research Project (1961 to the present) played an important role in collecting, evaluating, and archiving the historical tornado data.

  13. A Qualitative Case Study of Hurricane Katrina and University Presidential Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeely, Stanton Francis, III

    2013-01-01

    Leaders of many institutions of higher education are not equipped to manage a major crisis or disaster, and presidential leadership during a disaster is essential, as university presidents are ultimately accountable for the well-being of their institutions. Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2005, flooding 80% of the city for many weeks…

  14. A digital simulation of message traffic for natural disaster warning communications satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, G. F.; Stevenson, S. M.

    1972-01-01

    Various types of weather communications are required to alert industries and the general public about the impending occurrence of tornados, hurricanes, snowstorms, floods, etc. A natural disaster warning satellite system has been proposed for meeting the communications requirements of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Message traffic for a communications satellite was simulated with a digital computer in order to determine the number of communications channels to meet system requirements. Poisson inputs are used for arrivals and an exponential distribution is used for service.

  15. Predictors of compliance with tornado warnings issued in Joplin, Missouri, in 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Bimal Kanti; Stimers, Mitchel; Caldas, Marcellus

    2015-01-01

    Joplin, a city in the southwest corner of Missouri, United States, suffered an EF-5 tornado in the late afternoon of 22 May 2011. This event, which claimed the lives of 162 people, represents the deadliest single tornado to strike the US since modern record-keeping began in 1950. This study examines the factors associated with responses to tornado warnings. Based on a post-tornado survey of survivors in Joplin, it reveals that tornado warnings were adequate and timely. Multivariate logistic regression identified four statistically significant determinants of compliance with tornado warnings: number of warning sources, whether respondents were at home when the tornado struck, past tornado experience, and gender. The findings suggest several recommendations, the implementation of which will further improve responses to tornado warnings. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  16. Physical Patterns Associated with 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Fernanda; Salem, Thomas

    2012-02-01

    The National Weather Service office in Memphis, Tennessee has aimed their efforts to improve severe tornado forecasting. Everything is not known about tornadogenesis, but one thing is: tornadoes tend to form within supercell thunderstorms. Hence, 27 April 2011 and 25 May 2011 were days when a Tornado Outbreak was expected to arise. Although 22 tornadoes struck the region on 27 April 2011, only 1 impacted the area on 25 May 2011. In order to understand both events, comparisons of their physical features were made. These parameters were studied using the Weather Event Simulator system and the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction database. This research concentrated on the Surface Frontal Analysis, NAM40 700mb Dew-Points, NAM80 250mb Wind Speed and NAM20 500mb Vorticity images as well as 0-6 km Shear, MUCAPE and VGP mesoscale patterns. As result of this research a Dry-Line ahead of a Cold Front, Dew-points 5C and higher, and high Vorticity values^ were synoptic patterns that influenced to the formation of supercell tornadoes. Finally, MUCAPE and VGP favored the possibility of tornadoes occurrence on 25 May 2011, but shear was the factor that made 27 April 2011 a day for a Tornado Outbreak weather event.

  17. Bleeding Mud: The Testimonial Poetry of Hurricane Mitch in Nicaragua

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin S Finzer

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Beginning with Rubén Darío, Nicaragua has long prided itself in being a country of poets. During the Sandinista Revolution, popular poetry workshops dispatched by Minister of Culture Ernesto Cardenal taught peasants and soldiers to write poetry about everyday life and to use poetry as a way to work through trauma from the civil war. When Hurricane Mitch--one of the first superstorms that heralded climate change--brought extreme flooding to Nicaragua in 1998, poetry again served as a way for victims to process the devastation. Examining testimonial poetry from Hurricane Mitch, this article shows how the mud and despair of this environmental disaster function as palimpsests of conquest and imperial oppression.

  18. Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsner, James B; Jagger, Thomas H; Fricker, Tyler

    2016-01-01

    This paper estimates regional tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over time. Results provide a long-term view of risk that delineates the main tornado corridors in the United States where the expected annual rate exceeds two tornadoes per 10,000 square km. A few counties in the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas have annual rates that exceed four tornadoes per 10,000 square km. Refitting the model after removing the least damaging tornadoes from the data (EF0) produces a similar map but with the greatest tornado risk shifted south and eastward. Second, a space-time model is fit to the counts aggregated in raster cells with terms that control for changes in climate factors. Results provide a short-term view of risk. The short-term view identifies a shift of tornado activity away from the Ohio Valley under El Niño conditions and away from the Southeast under positive North Atlantic oscillation conditions. The combined predictor effects on the local rates is quantified by fitting the model after leaving out the year to be predicted from the data. The models provide state-of-the-art views of tornado risk that can be used by government agencies, the insurance industry, and the general public.

  19. Integration of Ground, Buoys, Satellite and Model data to map the Changes in Meteorological Parameters Associated with Harvey Hurricane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauhan, A.; Sarkar, S.; Singh, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    The coastal areas have dense onshore and marine observation network and are also routinely monitored by constellation of satellites. The monitoring of ocean, land and atmosphere through a range of meteorological parameters, provides information about the land and ocean surface. Satellite data also provide information at different pressure levels that help to access the development of tropical storms and formation of hurricanes at different categories. Integration of ground, buoys, satellite and model data showing the changes in meteorological parameters during the landfall stages of hurricane Harvey will be discussed. Hurricane Harvey was one of the deadliest hurricanes at the Gulf coast which caused intense flooding from the precipitation. The various observation networks helped city administrators to evacuate the coastal areas, that minimized the loss of lives compared to the Galveston hurricane of 1900 which took 10,000 lives. Comparison of meteorological parameters derived from buoys, ground stations and satellites associated with Harvey and 2005 Katrina hurricane present some of the interesting features of the two hurricanes.

  20. l tornado che colpì la laguna di Venezia I ' l l Settembre 1970 Qualche considerazione intorno alla teoria elettrica dei tornado

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. JANESELLI

    1972-06-01

    Full Text Available After a short description of the disastrous effects of the
    tornado which struck the Venice lagoon on September 11, 1970, the principal
    theories which in the centuries tried to account for the origin of such
    terrible vortexes, are reviewed. In particular, some remarks are given about
    the electrical theory of the tornadoes. It seems to the author that some features
    would be explained in a simple way by considering the tornado as a
    convectivo cell with electric currents of high intensity. Finally, after recalling
    the meteorological conditions preceding the tornado of September 11,
    its chief features are described.

  1. Impacts of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on the microbial landscape of the New Orleans area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinigalliano, C D; Gidley, M L; Shibata, T; Whitman, D; Dixon, T H; Laws, E; Hou, A; Bachoon, D; Brand, L; Amaral-Zettler, L; Gast, R J; Steward, G F; Nigro, O D; Fujioka, R; Betancourt, W Q; Vithanage, G; Mathews, J; Fleming, L E; Solo-Gabriele, H M

    2007-05-22

    Floodwaters in New Orleans from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were observed to contain high levels of fecal indicator bacteria and microbial pathogens, generating concern about long-term impacts of these floodwaters on the sediment and water quality of the New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. We show here that fecal indicator microbe concentrations in offshore waters from Lake Pontchartrain returned to prehurricane concentrations within 2 months of the flooding induced by these hurricanes. Vibrio and Legionella species within the lake were more abundant in samples collected shortly after the floodwaters had receded compared with samples taken within the subsequent 3 months; no evidence of a long-term hurricane-induced algal bloom was observed. Giardia and Cryptosporidium were detected in canal waters. Elevated levels of fecal indicator bacteria observed in sediment could not be solely attributed to impacts from floodwaters, as both flooded and nonflooded areas exhibited elevated levels of fecal indicator bacteria. Evidence from measurements of Bifidobacterium and bacterial diversity analysis suggest that the fecal indicator bacteria observed in the sediment were from human fecal sources. Epidemiologic studies are highly recommended to evaluate the human health effects of the sediments deposited by the floodwaters.

  2. Disaster preparedness of dialysis patients for Hurricanes Gustav and Ike 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinpeter, Myra A

    2009-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita resulted in massive devastation of the Gulf Coast at Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas during 2005. Because of those disasters, dialysis providers, nephrologists, and dialysis patients used disaster planning activities to work to mitigate the morbidity and mortality associated with the 2005 hurricane season for future events affecting dialysis patients. As Hurricane Gustav approached, anniversary events for Hurricane Katrina were postponed because of evacuation orders for nearly the entire Louisiana Gulf Coast. As part of the hurricane preparation, dialysis units reviewed the disaster plans of patients, and patients made preparation for evacuation. Upon evacuation, many patients returned to the dialysis units that had provided services during their exile from Hurricane Katrina; other patients went to other locations as part of their evacuation plan. Patients uniformly reported positive experiences with dialysis providers in their temporary evacuation communities, provided that those communities did not experience the effects of Hurricane Gustav. With the exception of evacuees to Baton Rouge, patients continued to receive their treatments uninterrupted. Because of extensive damage in the Baton Rouge area, resulting in widespread power losses and delayed restoration of power to hospitals and other health care facilities, some patients missed one treatment. However, as a result of compliance with disaster fluid and dietary recommendations, no adverse outcomes occurred. In most instances, patients were able to return to their home dialysis unit or a nearby unit to continue dialysis treatments within 4 - 5 days of Hurricane Gustav. Hurricane Ike struck the Texas Gulf Coast near Galveston, resulting in devastation of that area similar to the devastation seen in New Orleans after Katrina. The storm surge along the Louisiana Gulf Coast resulted in flooding that temporarily closed coastal dialysis units. Patients were prepared and experienced

  3. 7 CFR 457.107 - Florida citrus fruit crop insurance provisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... hurricane, tornado or other excess wind storms that results in the fruit not meeting the standards for... designated as Citrus I through IX. Excess wind. A natural movement of air that has sustained speeds exceeding... grove; (2) Freeze; (3) Hail; (4) Hurricane; (5) Tornado; (6) Excess wind, but only if it causes the...

  4. Dynamical analysis and visualization of tornadoes time series.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    António M Lopes

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.

  5. Acoustic detection, tracking, and characterization of three tornadoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, William Garth; Talmadge, Carrick; Park, Joseph; Waxler, Roger; Assink, Jelle

    2014-04-01

    Acoustic data recorded at 1000 samples per second by two sensor arrays located at ranges of 1-113 km from three tornadoes that occurred on 24 May 2011 in Oklahoma are analyzed. Accurate bearings to the tornadoes have been obtained using beamforming methods applied to the data at infrasonic frequencies. Beamforming was not viable at audio frequencies, but the data demonstrate the ability to detect significant changes in the shape of the estimated power spectral density in the band encompassing 10 Hz to approximately 100 Hz at distances of practical value from the sensors. This suggests that arrays of more closely spaced sensors might provide better bearing accuracy at practically useful distances from a tornado. Additionally, a mathematical model, based on established relationships of aeroacoustic turbulence, is demonstrated to provide good agreement to the estimated power spectra produced by the tornadoes at different times and distances from the sensors. The results of this analysis indicate that, qualitatively, an inverse relationship appears to exist between the frequency of an observed peak of the power spectral density and the reported tornado intensity.

  6. Dynamical analysis and visualization of tornadoes time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, António M; Tenreiro Machado, J A

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.

  7. Tornado missile impact study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    UCRL-15910 specifies wind and tornado missiles for moderate- and high-hazard DOE facilities. Wall-barrier specimens have been tested at the Tornado Missile Impact Facility at Texas Tech University. The facility has an air-activated tornado missile cannon capable of firing 2x4 timber planks weighing 12 lb at speeds up to 150 mph and 3-in-diameter steel pipes weighing 75 lb at speeds to 7 5 mph. Wall barriers tested to date include reinforced concrete walls from 4-in. to 10-in. thick; 8-in. and 12-in. walls of reinforced concrete masonry units (CMU); two other masonry wall configurations consisting of an 8-in. CMU with a 4-in. clay-brick veneer and a 10-in. composite wall with two wythes of 4-in. clay brick. The impact test series is designed to determine the impact speed that will produce backface spall of each wall barrier. A set of 15 wall sections has been constructed and tested at this time. Preliminary finding suggest that all cells of CMU walls must be grouted to prevent missile penetration. Walls recommended in the workshop on UCRL-15910 provide acceptable protection if cracking can be accepted

  8. Tornado missiles protections taken at the Ikata NPP of SEPCO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikeda, Kazutoyo; Takagi, Toshimitsu; Inoue, Haruhisa; Yoshida, Hisao; Moriuchi, Takehiro

    2014-01-01

    On July 8, 2013, the new regulatory requirements for commercial power reactors got in force. Based on a concept of 'Defense-in-depth', essential importance was placed on the third and fourth layers of defense and prevention of simultaneous loss of all safety functions due to common causes. In this regards, the previous assumptions on the impact of earthquakes, tsunamis and other external events such as volcanic eruptions, tornadoes and forest fires were re-evaluated, and countermeasures for nuclear safety against these external events were decided to be enhanced. For tornado, Nuclear Regulation Authority promulgated the 'Assessment Guide for Tornado Effect on Nuclear Power Plants' to evaluate the effect of tornadoes. This paper will introduce the outline of evaluation cases of tornado effect, and tornado missiles protections taken at the Ikata Unit 3 Nuclear Power Plant (for actual case studies). (author)

  9. Examining social, physical, and environmental dimensions of tornado vulnerability in Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebeneck, Laura

    2016-01-01

    To develop a vulnerability model that captures the social, physical, and environmental dimensions of tornado vulnerability of Texas counties. Guided by previous research and methodologies proposed in the hazards and emergency management literature, a principle components analysis is used to create a tornado vulnerability index. Data were gathered from open source information available through the US Census Bureau, American Community Surveys, and the Texas Natural Resources Information System. Texas counties. The results of the model yielded three indices that highlight geographic variability of social vulnerability, built environment vulnerability, and tornado hazard throughout Texas. Further analyses suggest that counties with the highest tornado vulnerability include those with high population densities and high tornado risk. This article demonstrates one method for assessing statewide tornado vulnerability and presents how the results of this type of analysis can be applied by emergency managers towards the reduction of tornado vulnerability in their communities.

  10. Determining tropical cyclone inland flooding loss on a large scale through a new flood peak ratio-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Villarini, Gabriele; Smith, James A

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, the United States has been severely affected by numerous tropical cyclones (TCs) which have caused massive damages. While media attention mainly focuses on coastal losses from storm surge, these TCs have inflicted significant devastation inland as well. Yet, little is known about the relationship between TC-related inland flooding and economic losses. Here we introduce a novel methodology that first successfully characterizes the spatial extent of inland flooding, and then quantifies its relationship with flood insurance claims. Hurricane Ivan in 2004 is used as illustration. We empirically demonstrate in a number of ways that our quantified inland flood magnitude produces a very good representation of the number of inland flood insurance claims experienced. These results highlight the new technological capabilities that can lead to a better risk assessment of inland TC flood. This new capacity will be of tremendous value to a number of public and private sector stakeholders dealing with disaster preparedness. (letter)

  11. Theoretical tornado vortex model for nuclear plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, C.N.; Barnett, R.O.; Burdette, E.G.

    1977-01-01

    A simplified tornado vortex model is defined using fluid dynamics theory. Beginning with the Navier-Stokes equations of motion for an incompressible fluid and simpifying in a way consistent with a tornado wind field, develops the well-known cyclostrophic wind equation referred to by Hoecker and another equation which defines the tangential velocity profile. Together, they define a simplified tornado vertex model of which the Rankine and Hoecker vortices are special cases. Practical implications of the results obtained are discussed. (Auth.)

  12. Spatial Distributions of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes by Intensity and Size Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd W. Moore

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones that make landfall often spawn tornadoes. Previous studies have shown that these tornadoes are not uniformly distributed in the United States or in the tropical cyclone environment. They show that tornadoes tend to occur relatively close to the coastline and that they tend to cluster to the east-of-center in the tropical cyclone environment, particularly in the northeast and east-of-center quadrants. This study contributes to these studies by analyzing the spatial distributions of tropical cyclone tornadoes by intensity, path length, path width, and the damage potential index. The analyses confirm that most tornadoes occur relatively close to the coastline, but show that stronger tornadoes with larger paths are disproportionately common farther inland. They also confirm that the highest amount of activity is located within the northeast and east-of-center quadrants and show that the most potentially damaging tornadoes cluster in a sub region near the intersection of these two quadrants.

  13. Disaster recovery: mitigating loss through documentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisvert, Sue

    2011-01-01

    Flood, fire, tornado, hurricane. Whatever the cause, natural or man-made, the result on an organization can be devastating. Planning and preparation for disaster must include significant attention to disaster recovery. The ability to produce documentation of what existed, what was damaged, recovery costs and income losses will be essential to the claims adjustment process. This article discusses strategies for creating a historical record, leveraging contemporaneous incident command documentation and working with contractors to identify and record disaster-related expenses. © 2011 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  14. Brief communication: Loss of life due to Hurricane Harvey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Jonkman

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available An analysis was made of the loss of life caused by Hurricane Harvey. Information was collected for 70 fatalities that occurred due to the event and were recovered within the first 2 weeks after landfall. Most fatalities occurred due to drowning (81 %, particularly in and around vehicles. Males (70 % and people over 50 years old (56 % were overrepresented in the dataset. More than half of the fatalities occurred in the greater Houston area (n  =  37, where heavy rainfall and dam releases caused unprecedented urban flooding. The majority of fatalities were recovered outside the designated 100- and 500-year flood hazard areas.

  15. A Coupled Community-Level Assessment of Social and Physical Vulnerability to Hurricane Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. H.; Sutley, E. J.; Chowdhury, A. G.; Hamideh, S.

    2017-12-01

    A significant portion of the U.S. building inventory exists in hurricane- and flood-prone regions. The accompanying storm surge and rising water levels often result in the inundation of residential homes, particularly those occupied by low income households and forcing displacement. In order to mitigate potential damages, a popular design technique is to elevate the structure using piers or piles to above the base flood elevation. This is observed for single-family and multi-family homes, including manufactured homes and post-disaster temporary housing, albeit at lower elevations. Although this design alleviates potential flood damage, it affects the wind-structure interaction by subjecting the structure to higher wind speeds due to its increased height and also having a path for the wind to pass underneath the structure potentially creating new vulnerabilities to wind loading. The current ASCE 7 Standard (2016) does not include a methodology for addressing the modified aerodynamics and estimating wind loads for elevated structures, and thus the potential vulnerability during high wind events is unaccounted for in design. Using experimentally measured wind pressures on elevated and non-elevated residential building models, tax data, and census data, a coupled vulnerability assessment is performed at the community-level. Galveston, Texas is selected as the case study community. Using the coupled assessment model, a hindcast of 2008 Hurricane Ike is used for predicting physical damage and household dislocation. The predicted results are compared with the actual outcomes of the 2008 hurricane disaster. Recommendations are made (1) for code adoption based on the experimentally measured wind loads, and (2) for mitigation actions and policies that would could decrease population dislocation and promote recovery.

  16. A New Approach to Monitoring Coastal Marshes for Persistent Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalcic, M. T.; Undersood, Lauren W.; Fletcher, Rose

    2012-01-01

    Many areas in coastal Louisiana are below sea level and protected from flooding by a system of natural and man-made levees. Flooding is common when the levees are overtopped by storm surge or rising rivers. Many levees in this region are further stressed by erosion and subsidence. The floodwaters can become constricted by levees and trapped, causing prolonged inundation. Vegetative communities in coastal regions, from fresh swamp forest to saline marsh, can be negatively affected by inundation and changes in salinity. As saltwater persists, it can have a toxic effect upon marsh vegetation causing die off and conversion to open water types, destroying valuable species habitats. The length of time the water persists and the average annual salinity are important variables in modeling habitat switching (cover type change). Marsh type habitat switching affects fish, shellfish, and wildlife inhabitants, and can affect the regional ecosystem and economy. There are numerous restoration and revitalization projects underway in the coastal region, and their effects on the entire ecosystem need to be understood. For these reasons, monitoring persistent saltwater intrusion and inundation is important. For this study, persistent flooding in Louisiana coastal marshes was mapped using MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) time series of a Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). The time series data were derived for 2000 through 2009, including flooding due to Hurricane Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Ike in 2008. Using the NDWI, duration and extent of flooding can be inferred. The Time Series Product Tool (TSPT), developed at NASA SSC, is a suite of software developed in MATLAB(R) that enables improved-quality time series images to be computed using advanced temporal processing techniques. This software has been used to compute time series for monitoring temporal changes in environmental phenomena, (e.g. NDVI times series from MODIS), and was modified and used to

  17. Tornadoes: Nature's Most Violent Storms. A Preparedness Guide Including Safety Information for Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    American National Red Cross, Washington, DC.

    This preparedness guide explains and describes tornadoes, and includes safety information for schools. A tornado is defined as a violently rotating column of air extending from a thunderstorm to the ground. The guide explains the cause of tornadoes, provides diagrams of how they form, describes variations of tornadoes, and classifies tornadoes by…

  18. Resolution Enhancement of MODIS-Derived Water Indices for Studying Persistent Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, L. W.; Kalcic, Maria; Fletcher, Rose

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring coastal marshes for persistent flooding and salinity stress is a high priority issue in Louisiana. Remote sensing can identify environmental variables that can be indicators of marsh habitat conditions, and offer timely and relatively accurate information for aiding wetland vegetation management. Monitoring activity accuracy is often limited by mixed pixels which occur when areas represented by the pixel encompasses more than one cover type. Mixtures of marsh grasses and open water in 250m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data can impede flood area estimation. Flood mapping of such mixtures requires finer spatial resolution data to better represent the cover type composition within 250m MODIS pixel. Fusion of MODIS and Landsat can improve both spectral and temporal resolution of time series products to resolve rapid changes from forcing mechanisms like hurricane winds and storm surge. For this study, using a method for estimating sub-pixel values from a MODIS time series of a Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), using temporal weighting, was implemented to map persistent flooding in Louisiana coastal marshes. Ordinarily NDWI computed from daily 250m MODIS pixels represents a mixture of fragmented marshes and water. Here, sub-pixel NDWI values were derived for MODIS data using Landsat 30-m data. Each MODIS pixel was disaggregated into a mixture of the eight cover types according to the classified image pixels falling inside the MODIS pixel. The Landsat pixel means for each cover type inside a MODIS pixel were computed for the Landsat data preceding the MODIS image in time and for the Landsat data succeeding the MODIS image. The Landsat data were then weighted exponentially according to closeness in date to the MODIS data. The reconstructed MODIS data were produced by summing the product of fractional cover type with estimated NDWI values within each cover type. A new daily time series was produced using both the reconstructed 250

  19. Design of convolutional tornado code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Hui; Yang, Yao; Gao, Hongmin; Tan, Lu

    2017-09-01

    As a linear block code, the traditional tornado (tTN) code is inefficient in burst-erasure environment and its multi-level structure may lead to high encoding/decoding complexity. This paper presents a convolutional tornado (cTN) code which is able to improve the burst-erasure protection capability by applying the convolution property to the tTN code, and reduce computational complexity by abrogating the multi-level structure. The simulation results show that cTN code can provide a better packet loss protection performance with lower computation complexity than tTN code.

  20. Tornadoes and related damage costs: statistical modeling with a semi-Markov approach

    OpenAIRE

    Corini, Chiara; D'Amico, Guglielmo; Petroni, Filippo; Prattico, Flavio; Manca, Raimondo

    2015-01-01

    We propose a statistical approach to tornadoes modeling for predicting and simulating occurrences of tornadoes and accumulated cost distributions over a time interval. This is achieved by modeling the tornadoes intensity, measured with the Fujita scale, as a stochastic process. Since the Fujita scale divides tornadoes intensity into six states, it is possible to model the tornadoes intensity by using Markov and semi-Markov models. We demonstrate that the semi-Markov approach is able to reprod...

  1. Touchable Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilhousen, David

    2004-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses a tornado-producing machine that he used in teacher-led, student assisted demonstrations in order to reinforce concepts learned during a unit on weather. The machine, or simulator, was powered by a hair dryer, fan, and cool-mist humidifier. The machine consists of a demonstration table containing a plenum box,…

  2. A forensic re-analysis of one of the deadliest European tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, Alois M.; Schreiner, Thomas M. E.; Púčik, Tomáš

    2018-06-01

    Extremely rare events with high potential impact, such as violent tornadoes, are of strong interest for climatology and risk assessment. In order to obtain more knowledge about the most extreme events, it is vital to study historical cases. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to demonstrate how a windstorm catastrophe that happened 100 years ago, such as the Wiener Neustadt, Lower Austria, tornado on 10 July 1916, can be successfully re-analyzed using a forensic approach, and (2) to propose a repeatable working method for assessing damage and reconstructing the path and magnitude of local windstorm and tornado cases with sufficient historical sources. Based on the results of the forensic re-analyses, a chronology of the tornado impact is presented, followed by a description of the key tornado characteristics: a maximum intensity rating of F4, a damage path length of 20 km and a maximum visible tornado diameter of 1 km. Compared to a historical scientific study published soon after the event, additional new findings are presented, namely the existence of two predecessor tornadoes and a higher number of fatalities: at least 34 instead of 32. While the storm-scale meteorology could not be reconstructed, rich damage data sources for the urban area of Wiener Neustadt facilitated a detailed analysis of damage tracks and wind intensities within the tornado. The authors postulate the requirement for an International Fujita Scale to rate tornadoes globally in a consistent way, based on comparable damage indicators.

  3. Two Solar Tornadoes Observed with the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zihao; Tian, Hui; Peter, Hardi; Su, Yang; Samanta, Tanmoy; Zhang, Jingwen; Chen, Yajie

    2018-01-01

    The barbs or legs of some prominences show an apparent motion of rotation, which are often termed solar tornadoes. It is under debate whether the apparent motion is a real rotating motion, or caused by oscillations or counter-streaming flows. We present analysis results from spectroscopic observations of two tornadoes by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph. Each tornado was observed for more than 2.5 hr. Doppler velocities are derived through a single Gaussian fit to the Mg II k 2796 Å and Si IV 1393 Å line profiles. We find coherent and stable redshifts and blueshifts adjacent to each other across the tornado axes, which appears to favor the interpretation of these tornadoes as rotating cool plasmas with temperatures of 104 K–105 K. This interpretation is further supported by simultaneous observations of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, which reveal periodic motions of dark structures in the tornadoes. Our results demonstrate that spectroscopic observations can provide key information to disentangle different physical processes in solar prominences.

  4. Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Huan [University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Tang, Qiuhong [Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Kirschbaum, Dalia B. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Ward, Philip [Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

    2016-01-01

    Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards, and society’s vulnerability to them, differs between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, and increase propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

  5. Estimating dispersion from a tornado vortex and mesocyclone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, A.H.; Hunter, C.H.

    1996-06-01

    Atmospheric dispersion modeling is required to ensure that a postulated breach in radionuclide storage containers at the Savannah River Site (SRS) from a tornado strike of Fujita-scale intensity F2 or higher will not result in an unacceptable dose to individuals. Fujita-scale tornado descriptions are included in Appendix A of this report. Dispersion models previously used at SRS for estimating dispersion following a tornado strike were developed by D.W. Pepper in 1975 (DP-1387, Dispersion of Small Particles) and H.R. Haynes and D.W. Taylor in 1983 (DPST-82-982, Estimating Doses from Tornado Winds). Research conducted in 1983 on the formation and evolution of tornadic thunderstorms has lead to a more complete understanding of the tornado vortex and associated persistent updraft and downdraft regions within the parent thunderstorm. To ensure that appropriate, contemporary methods are used for safety analysis, the Pepper model and the Haynes and Taylor model were evaluated with respect to current knowledge of circulations within tornadic thunderstorms. Pepper's model is complex numerically but contains most of the desired physical parameterizations. Haynes and Taylor's model is used with the Puff-Plume model (an emergency response model on the Weather INformation and Display System at SRS) and has provisions for radionuclide deposition and rainout. Haynes and Taylor assumed heavy rain following the tornado for a period of ten minutes, followed by a lighter rain for another ten minutes, then no rain for the period when the material is transported to 100 km downwind. However, neither model incorporates the effects of a nearby thunderstorm downdraft

  6. A solar tornado triggered by flares?

    OpenAIRE

    Panesar, N. K.; Innes, D. E.; Tiwari, S. K.; Low, B. C.

    2013-01-01

    Context. Solar tornados are dynamical, conspicuously helical magnetic structures that are mainly observed as a prominence activity. Aims. We investigate and propose a triggering mechanism for the solar tornado observed in a prominence cavity by SDO/AIA on September 25, 2011. Methods. High-cadence EUV images from the SDO/AIA and the Ahead spacecraft of STEREO/EUVI are used to correlate three flares in the neighbouring active-region (NOAA 11303) and their EUV waves with the dynamical de...

  7. How Investment in #GovTech Tools Helped with USGS Disaster Response During Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, S.; Pearson, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey was an unprecedented storm event that not only included a challenge to decision-makers, but also the scientific community to provide clear and rapid dissemination of changing streamflow conditions and potential flooding concerns. Of primary importance to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Texas Water Science Center was to focus on the availability of accessible data and scientific communication of rapidly changing water conditions across Texas with regards to heavy rainfall rates, rising rivers, streams, and lake elevations where USGS has monitoring stations. Infrastructure modernization leading to advanced GovTech practices and data visualization was key to the USGS role in providing data during Hurricane Harvey. In the last two years, USGS has released two web applications, "Texas Water Dashboard" and "Water-On-The-Go", which were heavily utilized by partners, local media, and municipal government officials. These tools provided the backbone for data distribution through both desktop and mobile applications as decision support during flood events. The combination of Texas Water Science Center web tools and the USGS National Water Information System handled more than 5-million data requests over the course of the storm. On the ground local information near Buffalo Bayou and Addicks/Barker Dams, as well as statewide support of USGS real-time scientific data, were delivered to the National Weather Service, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, FEMA, Harris County Flood Control District, the general public, and others. This presentation will provide an overview of GovTech solutions used during Hurricane Harvey, including the history of USGS tool development, discussion on the public response, and future applications for helping provide scientific communications to the public.

  8. A forensic re-analysis of one of the deadliest European tornadoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Holzer

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Extremely rare events with high potential impact, such as violent tornadoes, are of strong interest for climatology and risk assessment. In order to obtain more knowledge about the most extreme events, it is vital to study historical cases. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1 to demonstrate how a windstorm catastrophe that happened 100 years ago, such as the Wiener Neustadt, Lower Austria, tornado on 10 July 1916, can be successfully re-analyzed using a forensic approach, and (2 to propose a repeatable working method for assessing damage and reconstructing the path and magnitude of local windstorm and tornado cases with sufficient historical sources. Based on the results of the forensic re-analyses, a chronology of the tornado impact is presented, followed by a description of the key tornado characteristics: a maximum intensity rating of F4, a damage path length of 20 km and a maximum visible tornado diameter of 1 km. Compared to a historical scientific study published soon after the event, additional new findings are presented, namely the existence of two predecessor tornadoes and a higher number of fatalities: at least 34 instead of 32. While the storm-scale meteorology could not be reconstructed, rich damage data sources for the urban area of Wiener Neustadt facilitated a detailed analysis of damage tracks and wind intensities within the tornado. The authors postulate the requirement for an International Fujita Scale to rate tornadoes globally in a consistent way, based on comparable damage indicators.

  9. Better Data Help Make Better Decisions: Disseminating Information During Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, K.; Lindner, J.; Moore, M.

    2017-12-01

    During large scale natural disasters, like hurricane Harvey, time-critical decisions are made on a constant basis. From evacuation orders, allocation of emergency resources, or allowing people to return home, decisions are only as good as the information upon which they are based. Better real-time data lead to better decisions which ultimately leads to improved disaster response and recovery. In 2015 Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) in Houston, TX began upgrading their automatic flood warning system (FWS) that dates back to the 1980s. The HCFCD network consists of 154 remote stations that report precipitation intensities and stream levels in near real time. Since the upgrades were completed in 2016 the Houston area has experienced multiple 100+ rain events, the most recent being Hurricane Harvey. The FWS generated accurate, reliable, real-time data throughout the entirety of the record breaking, four-day event. This information was disseminated to state, local and federal agencies, news outlets and the public via web sites and social media. Without this quality of data, disaster management decisions could not have been made effectively, ultimately leading to greater destruction of property and loss of life.

  10. Effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita on Louisiana black bear habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Joseph D.; Murrow, Jennifer L.

    2012-01-01

    The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) is comprised of 3 subpopulations, each being small, geographically isolated, and vulnerable to extinction. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita struck the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts in 2005, potentially altering habitat occupied by this federally threatened subspecies. We used data collected on radio-telemetered bears from 1993 to 1995 and pre-hurricane landscape data to develop a habitat model based on the Mahalanobis distance (D2) statistic. We then applied that model to post-hurricane landscape data where the telemetry data were collected (i.e., occupied study area) and where bear range expansion might occur (i.e., unoccupied study area) to quantify habitat loss or gain. The D2 model indicated that quality bear habitat was associated with areas of high mast-producing forest density, low water body density, and moderate forest patchiness. Cross-validation and testing on an independent data set in central Louisiana indicated that prediction and transferability of the model were good. Suitable bear habitat decreased from 348 to 345 km2 (0.9%) within the occupied study area and decreased from 34,383 to 33,891 km2 (1.4%) in the unoccupied study area following the hurricanes. Our analysis indicated that bear habitat was not significantly degraded by the hurricanes, although changes that could have occurred on a microhabitat level would be more difficult to detect at the resolution we used. We suggest that managers continue to monitor the possible long-term effects of these hurricanes (e.g., vegetation changes from flooding, introduction of toxic chemicals, or water quality changes).

  11. Mortality from a tornado outbreak, Alabama, April 27, 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Cindy H; Schnall, Amy H; Mertzlufft, Caitlin E; Noe, Rebecca S; Wolkin, Amy F; Spears, Jeanne; Casey-Lockyer, Mary; Vagi, Sara J

    2013-08-01

    We describe the demographics of the decedents from the tornado outbreak in Alabama on April 27, 2011; examine the circumstances of death surrounding these fatalities; and identify measures to prevent future tornado-related fatalities. We collected information about the decedents from death certificates, disaster-related mortality surveillance, and interview data collected by American Red Cross volunteers from the decedent's families. We describe demographic characteristics, circumstances and causes of death, and sheltering behaviors before death. Of the 247 fatalities, females and older adults were at highest risk for tornado-related deaths. Most deaths were directly related to the tornadoes, on scene, and trauma-related. The majority of the deceased were indoors in single-family homes. Word of mouth was the most common warning mechanism. This tornado event was the third deadliest in recent US history. Our findings support the need for local community shelters, enhanced messaging to inform the public of shelter locations, and encouragement of word-of-mouth warnings and personal and family preparedness planning, with a special focus on assisting vulnerable individuals in taking shelter.

  12. School interventions after the Joplin tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanter, Robert K; Abramson, David

    2014-04-01

    To qualitatively describe interventions by schools to meet children's needs after the May 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Qualitative exploratory study conducted six months after the tornado. Key informant interviews with school staff (teachers, psychologists, guidance counselor, nurse, principal), public health official, and physicians. After the tornado, school staff immediately worked to contact every enrolled child to provide assistance and coordinate recovery services. Despite severe damage to half of the city's schools, the decision was made to reopen schools at the earliest possible time to provide a safe, reassuring environment and additional services. An expanded summer school session emphasized child safety and emotional wellbeing. The 2011-2012 school year began on time, less than three months after the disaster, using temporary facilities. Displaced children were bused to their usual schools regardless of their new temporary residence locations. In just-in-time training sessions, teachers developed strategies to support students and staff experiencing anxiety or depression. Certified counselors conducted school-based, small-group counseling for students. Selective referrals were made to community mental health providers for children with greatest needs. Evidence from Joplin adds to a small body of empirical experience demonstrating the important contribution of schools to postdisaster community recovery. Despite timely and proactive services, many families and children struggled after the tornado. Improvements in the effectiveness of postdisaster interventions at schools will follow from future scientific evidence on optimal approaches.

  13. Dual-Polarimetric Radar-Based Tornado Debris Paths Associated with EF-4 and EF-5 Tornadoes over Northern Alabama During the Historic Outbreak of 27 April 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Chrstopher J.; Schultz, Elise V.; Petersen, Walter A.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Knupp, Kevin R.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Darden, Christopher B.

    2012-01-01

    An historic tornado and severe weather outbreak devastated much of the southeastern United States between 25 and 28 April 2011. On 27 April 2011, northern Alabama was particularly hard hit by a large number of tornadoes, including several that reached EF-4 and EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita damage scale. In northern Alabama alone, there were approximately 100 fatalities and hundreds of more people who were injured or lost their homes during the havoc caused by these violent tornadic storms. Two long-track and violent (EF-4 and EF-5) tornadoes occurred within range of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band dual-polarimetric). A unique capability of dual-polarimetric radar is the near-real time identification of lofted debris associated with ongoing tornadoes on the ground. The focus of this paper is to analyze the dual-polarimetric radar-inferred tornado debris signatures and identify the associated debris paths of the long-track EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes near ARMOR. The relative locations of the debris and damage paths for each tornado will be ascertained by careful comparison of the ARMOR analysis with NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) satellite imagery of the tornado damage scenes and the National Weather Service tornado damage surveys. With the ongoing upgrade of the WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler) operational network to dual-polarimetry and a similar process having already taken place or ongoing for many private sector radars, dual-polarimetric radar signatures of tornado debris promise the potential to assist in the situational awareness of government and private sector forecasters and emergency managers during tornadic events. As such, a companion abstract (Schultz et al.) also submitted to this conference explores The use of dual-polarimetric tornadic debris

  14. Coupling Between Doppler Radar Signatures and Tornado Damage Tracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Carey, Lawrence; Carcione, Brian; Smith, Matthew; Schultz, Elise V.; Schultz, Christopher; Lafontaine, Frank

    2011-01-01

    On April 27, 2011, the southeastern United States was raked with several episodes of severe weather. Numerous tornadoes caused extensive damage, and tragically, the deaths of over 300 people. In Alabama alone, there were 61 confirmed tornados, 4 of them produced EF5 damage, and several were on the ground an hour or more with continuous damage tracks exceeding 80km. The use of Doppler radars covering the region provided reflectivity and velocity signatures that allowed forecasters to monitors the severe storms from beginning to end issuing hundreds of severe weather warnings throughout the day. Meteorologists from the the NWS performed extensive surveys to assess the intensity, duration, and ground track of tornadoes reported during the event. Survey activities included site visits to the affected locations, analysis of radar and satellite data, aerial surveys, and interviews with eyewitnesses. Satellite data from NASA's MODIS and ASTER instruments played a helpful role in determining the location of tornado damage paths and in the assessment. High resolution multispectral and temporal composites helped forecasters corroborate their damage assessments, determine starting and ending points for tornado touchdowns, and helped to provide forecasters with a better big-picture view of the damage region. The imagery also helped to separate damage from the April 27th tornados from severe weather that occurred earlier that month. In a post analysis of the outbreak, tornado damage path signatures observed in the NASA satellite data have been correlated to "debris ball" signatures in the NWS Doppler radars and a special ARMOR dual-polarization radar operated by the University of Alabama Huntsville during the event. The Doppler radar data indicates a circular enhanced reflectivity signal and rotational couplet in the radial velocity likely associated with the tornado that is spatially correlated with the damage tracks in the observed satellite data. An algorithm to detect and

  15. Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes

    OpenAIRE

    Khare, Shree; Jewson, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling hurricanes, and for intense hurricanes only. We find that the averaging lengths needed for optimal predictions of numbers of intense hurricanes are longer than those needed for optimal predictions of numbers of hurricanes of all strengths.

  16. A rational method to evaluate tornado-borne missile speed in nuclear power plants. Validation of a numerical code based on Fujita's tornado model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eguchi, Yuzuru; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Hattori, Yasuo; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

    2015-01-01

    Explanation is given about a rational method to evaluate tornado-borne missile speed, flight distance and flight height to be used for safety design of a nuclear power plant. In the method, the authors employed Fujita's DBT-77 model as a tornado wind model to take the near-ground tornado wind profile into account. A liftoff model of an object on the ground was developed by conservatively modeling the lift force due to ground effect. The wind field model and the liftoff model have been compiled together with a conventional flight model into a computer code, named TONBOS. In this study, especially, the code is verified for one- and two-dimensional free-fall problems as well as a case of 1957 Dallas tornado wind field model, whose solutions are theoretically or numerically known. Finally, the code is validated by typical car behaviors characterized by tornado wind speeds of the enhanced Fujita scale, as well as by an actual event where a truck was blown away by a tornado which struck a part of the town of Saroma, Hokkaido in November, 2006. (author)

  17. Tornado-resistance design for the nuclear safety structure of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xia Zufeng.

    1987-01-01

    The primary design consideration of anti-tornado of the nuclear safety structure of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant is briefly presented. It mainly includes estimating the probability of tornado arising in the site, ascertaining the design requirments of the anti-tornado structures and deciding the tornado load acted on the structures

  18. Magnetic traps with a sperical separatrix: Tornado traps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peregood, B.P.; Lehnert, B.

    1979-11-01

    A review is given on the features of magnetic traps with a spherical separatrix, with special emphesis on Tornado spiral coil configurations. The confinement and heating of static plasmas in Tornado traps is treated, including the topology of the magnetic field structure, the magneto-mechanical properties of the magnetic coil system, as well as the particle orbits and plasma behaviour in these traps. In additio, the mode of rotating plasma operation by crossed electric and magnetic fields is being described. The results of experiments on static and rotating plasmas are summarized, and conclusions are drawn about future possibilities of Tornado traps for the creation and containment of hot plasmas. (author)

  19. Magnetic traps with a spherical separatrix: Tornado traps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peregood, B.P.; Lehnert, B.

    1981-01-01

    A review is given on the features of magnetic traps with a spherical separatrix, with special emphasis on Tornado spiral coil configurations. The confinement and heating of static plasms in Tornado traps is treated, including the topology of the magnetic field structure, the magneto-mechanical properties of the magnetic coil system, as well as the particle orbits and plasma behaviour in these traps. In addition, the mode of rotating plasma operation by crossed electric and magnetic fields is described. The results of experiments on static and rotating plasmas are summarized, and conclusions are drawn about future possibilities of Tornado traps in the creation and containment of hot plasmas. (orig.)

  20. Community Post-Tornado Support Groups: Intervention and Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCammon, Susan; And Others

    Post-tornado support groups were organized by the Greene County, North Carolina disaster coordinators and the Pitt County outreach workers from the Community Mental Health Center sponsored tornado follow-up project. The most significant intervention used was the emphasis on creating a climate of group support by establishing a forum for…

  1. Monitoring Hurricane Rita Inland Storm Surge: Chapter 7J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Goree, Burl B.

    2007-01-01

    Pressure transducers (sensors) are accurate, reliable, and cost-effective tools to measure and record the magnitude, extent, and timing of hurricane storm surge. Sensors record storm-surge peaks more accurately and reliably than do high-water marks. Data collected by sensors may be used in storm-surge models to estimate when, where, and to what degree stormsurge flooding will occur during future storm-surge events and to calibrate and verify stormsurge models, resulting in a better understanding of the dynamics of storm surge.

  2. Tornado from Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vail, Kathleen

    1996-01-01

    Santa Fe School Superintendent Yvonne Gonzales, the "Texas Tornado," was hired to fix a 40% student-dropout rate and a white/Hispanic gap in achievement test scores. Gonzales is an avid integrationist; relies on humor, appeasement, and persuasion tactics; and has alienated some school employees by increasing central office…

  3. Tornadoes: A Center Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christman-Rothlein, Liz; Meinbach, Anita M.

    1981-01-01

    Information is given on how to put together a learning center. Discusses information and activity packets for a complete learning center on tornadoes including objectives, directions, materials, photographs of physical arrangements, and posttest. (DC)

  4. A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Vincent Y S; Arhonditsis, George B; Sills, David M L; Gough, William A; Auld, Heather

    2015-03-25

    Tornadoes represent one of nature's most hazardous phenomena that have been responsible for significant destruction and devastating fatalities. Here we present a Bayesian modelling approach for elucidating the spatiotemporal patterns of tornado activity in North America. Our analysis shows a significant increase in the Canadian Prairies and the Northern Great Plains during the summer, indicating a clear transition of tornado activity from the United States to Canada. The linkage between monthly-averaged atmospheric variables and likelihood of tornado events is characterized by distinct seasonality; the convective available potential energy is the predominant factor in the summer; vertical wind shear appears to have a strong signature primarily in the winter and secondarily in the summer; and storm relative environmental helicity is most influential in the spring. The present probabilistic mapping can be used to draw inference on the likelihood of tornado occurrence in any location in North America within a selected time period of the year.

  5. Preliminar calculation of tornado risk in the site of Ipero

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pacheco, Rafael R.; Costa, Saulo Barros, E-mail: rafael.rade@ctmsp.mar.mil.br, E-mail: saulo.costa@ctmsp.mar.mil.br [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Andrade, Delvonei A., E-mail: delvonei@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    General Design Criterion (GDC) 2 to 10 CFR 50 requires that 'structures, systems, and components that are important to safety shall be designed to withstand the effects of natural phenomena, such as tornadoes, without loss of capability to perform their safety functions'. According to Regulatory Guide 1.76, the design-basis intensity of a tornado for a nuclear power plant shall not exceed the intensity of the strongest tornado that occurs with the frequency of 10-7/years. Reinforcing the plant to achieve this goal represents a high increase in the costs of the project, and correspondently increase in the time required to have it commissioned. This way, the right definition of tornado risk in a site would represent savings in money for the project and in time for the licensing of a nuclear power plants. This works aims to establish a preliminary calculation of the tornado risk in the site of Ipero, where will work LABGENE from Brazilian Navy, and RMB from CNEN. (author)

  6. The assessment of tornado missile hazard to nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodman, J.; Koch, J.E.

    1983-01-01

    Numerical methods and computer codes for assessing tornado missile hazards to nuclear power plants are developed. Due to the uncertainty and randomness of tornado and tornado-generated missiles' characteristics, the damage probability of targets has a highly spread distribution. The proposed method is useful for assessing the risk of not providing protection to some nonsafety-related targets whose failure can create a hazard to the safe operation of nuclear power plants

  7. An Analysis of Operational Total Lightning Data During Long-Track Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carcione, Brian C.; Stano, Geoffrey T.

    2012-01-01

    The 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak brought three distinct waves of tornadic thunderstorms to portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia, striking the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama and southern Tennessee particularly hard. A total of 42 tornado paths were surveyed across the fourteen county area covered by the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office in Huntsville, Alabama. Ten of these tornadoes were on the ground for at least 20 miles, two had total path lengths over 130 miles, and six tornadoes were classified as violent (EF-4 or EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale). Many of these tornadoes occurred within the domain of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA), a ground-based total lightning detection network owned and operated by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Since 2003, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center has supplied data from NALMA in real time to NWS forecast offices in Huntsville, Knoxville/Tri-Cities, Birmingham, and Nashville. Previous research has documented the utility of total lightning information in predicting tornadogenesis, particularly when combined with other remote sensing tools. Basic warning decision-making during events such as 27 April is not the most difficult part of the process; instead, the focus of warning meteorologists shifts to looking for changes in intensity or possible particularly dangerous situations, since doppler radar velocity data often cannot distinguish between weak and strong tornadoes. To that end, this research attempts to determine if any correlation exists between flash densities of the longest-tracked tornadoes over time, and the surveyed wind speeds of the tornadoes. The long-track EF-5 tornado which struck the Hackleburg, Phil Campbell, and Tanner communities in north Alabama was the primary focus of this research due to its intensity and extended life cycle. However, not all tornadoes were available for total lightning analysis due to widespread

  8. Tornadoes and related damage costs: statistical modelling with a semi-Markov approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guglielmo D’Amico

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We propose a statistical approach to modelling for predicting and simulating occurrences of tornadoes and accumulated cost distributions over a time interval. This is achieved by modelling the tornado intensity, measured with the Fujita scale, as a stochastic process. Since the Fujita scale divides tornado intensity into six states, it is possible to model the tornado intensity by using Markov and semi-Markov models. We demonstrate that the semi-Markov approach is able to reproduce the duration effect that is detected in tornado occurrence. The superiority of the semi-Markov model as compared to the Markov chain model is also affirmed by means of a statistical test of hypothesis. As an application, we compute the expected value and the variance of the costs generated by the tornadoes over a given time interval in a given area. The paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that semi-Markov models represent an effective tool for physical analysis of tornadoes as well as for the estimation of the economic damages to human things.

  9. 2 Dimensional Hydrodynamic Flood Routing Analysis on Flood Forecasting Modelling for Kelantan River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azad Wan Hazdy

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster occurs quite frequently in Malaysia and has been categorized as the most threatening natural disaster compared to landslides, hurricanes, tsunami, haze and others. A study by Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID show that 9% of land areas in Malaysia are prone to flood which may affect approximately 4.9 million of the population. 2 Dimensional floods routing modelling demonstrate is turning out to be broadly utilized for flood plain display and is an extremely viable device for evaluating flood. Flood propagations can be better understood by simulating the flow and water level by using hydrodynamic modelling. The hydrodynamic flood routing can be recognized by the spatial complexity of the schematization such as 1D model and 2D model. It was found that most of available hydrological models for flood forecasting are more focus on short duration as compared to long duration hydrological model using the Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM. The aim of this paper is to discuss preliminary findings on development of flood forecasting model using Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM for Kelantan river basin. Among the findings discuss in this paper includes preliminary calibrated PDM model, which performed reasonably for the Dec 2014, but underestimated the peak flows. Apart from that, this paper also discusses findings on Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD and flood plain analysis. Flood forecasting is the complex process that begins with an understanding of the geographical makeup of the catchment and knowledge of the preferential regions of heavy rainfall and flood behaviour for the area of responsibility. Therefore, to decreases the uncertainty in the model output, so it is important to increase the complexity of the model.

  10. A multi-scale ensemble-based framework for forecasting compound coastal-riverine flooding: The Hackensack-Passaic watershed and Newark Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, F.; Ramaswamy, V.; Wang, Y.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A.; Pullen, J.

    2017-12-01

    Estuarine regions can experience compound impacts from coastal storm surge and riverine flooding. The challenges in forecasting flooding in such areas are multi-faceted due to uncertainties associated with meteorological drivers and interactions between hydrological and coastal processes. The objective of this work is to evaluate how uncertainties from meteorological predictions propagate through an ensemble-based flood prediction framework and translate into uncertainties in simulated inundation extents. A multi-scale framework, consisting of hydrologic, coastal and hydrodynamic models, was used to simulate two extreme flood events at the confluence of the Passaic and Hackensack rivers and Newark Bay. The events were Hurricane Irene (2011), a combination of inland flooding and coastal storm surge, and Hurricane Sandy (2012) where coastal storm surge was the dominant component. The hydrodynamic component of the framework was first forced with measured streamflow and ocean water level data to establish baseline inundation extents with the best available forcing data. The coastal and hydrologic models were then forced with meteorological predictions from 21 ensemble members of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) to retrospectively represent potential future conditions up to 96 hours prior to the events. Inundation extents produced by the hydrodynamic model, forced with the 95th percentile of the ensemble-based coastal and hydrologic boundary conditions, were in good agreement with baseline conditions for both events. The USGS reanalysis of Hurricane Sandy inundation extents was encapsulated between the 50th and 95th percentile of the forecasted inundation extents, and that of Hurricane Irene was similar but with caveats associated with data availability and reliability. This work highlights the importance of accounting for meteorological uncertainty to represent a range of possible future inundation extents at high resolution (∼m).

  11. Electrical Characteristics of Simulated Tornadoes and Dust Devils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Michael I.; Farrell, William M.; Barth, E. L.; Lewellen, W. S.; Perlongo, N. J.; Jackson, T. L.

    2012-01-01

    It is well known that tornadoes and dust devils have the ability to accumulate significant, visible clouds of debris. Collisions between sand-like debris species produce different electric charges on different types of grains, which convect along different trajectories around the vortex. Thus, significant charge separations and electric currents are possible, which as the vortex fluctuates over time are thought to produce ULF radiation signatures that have been measured in the field. These electric and magnetic fields may contain valuable information about tornado structure and genesis, and may be critical in driving electrochemical processes within dust devils on Mars. In the present work, existing large eddy simulations of debris-laden tornadoes performed at West Virginia University are coupled with a new debris-charging and advection code developed at Goddard Space Flight Center to investigate the detailed (meter-resolution) fluid-dynamic origins of electromagnetic fields within terrestrial vortices. First results are presented, including simulations of the electric and magnetic fields that would be observed by a near-surface, instrument-laden probe during a direct encounter with a tornado.

  12. Vulnerability Assessment of the nuclear power plant Vandellos II before a tornado; Evaluacion de vulnerabilidad de C.N. Vandellos II ante tornado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernandez, A.; Encabo, J.; Vaz-Romero, A.; Moran, M. A.; Roch, M.; Nicolas, P.; Barrera, N.

    2010-07-01

    The purpose of this work was the study of vulnerability to tornado event Vandellos II NPP. To do this, we have evaluated all structures (buildings), security systems and components to the installation of wind stresses, depression and impact of projectiles, generated by a tornado on the site.

  13. Assessment guide for tornado effect on Nuclear Power Plants (draft) with its commentaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Hiroto; Fukunishi, Shiro; Suzuki, Tetsuo

    2013-10-01

    In the context of a severe accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS) operated by the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) due to the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami, Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) was established on September 19, 2012 under the relevant law. After that NRA organized a task force for studying new regulatory standards for nuclear power plants (NPPs) in consideration of lessons learned from the severe accident at Fukushima. In the task force open meeting, through discussing about design basis external natural events which should be considered in the new regulatory standards, tornado was newly introduced into new regulatory standards as an external natural event. Based on the decision that tornado was newly introduced into new regulatory standards, the Secretariat of the Nuclear Regulation Authority (SNRA) commissioned the Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization (JNES) to study an assessment guide for tornado effect on NPPs intended to be used for an official safety review for a NPP construction. JNES organized Sectional Committee for Tornado Effect Assessment Guide consisting of experts in meteorology and wind engineering fields, discussing about assessment methods for tornado effect on NPPs, draft version of the assessment guide for tornado effect on NPPs was completed on April 4, 2013, and JNES submitted the draft guide to SNRA on the same date. After that NRA called for public comments for the draft version of the assessment guide, the draft version of the assessment guide was partly amended taking posted public comments account, and tornado effect assessment guide was officially released on June 19, 2013. Contents in this paper are as follows, assessment guide for tornado effect on NPPs (Draft version on April 4, 2013), supplementary documents, calculation examples, and future tasks for further improved reliability of tornado effect assessment on NPPs. This draft guide consists of six chapters

  14. Assessment guide for tornado effect on Nuclear Power Plants (draft) with its commentaries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inoue, Hiroto; Fukunishi, Shiro; Suzuki, Tetsuo [Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization, Seismic Safety Department, Tokyo (Japan)

    2013-10-15

    In the context of a severe accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS) operated by the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) due to the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami, Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) was established on September 19, 2012 under the relevant law. After that NRA organized a task force for studying new regulatory standards for nuclear power plants (NPPs) in consideration of lessons learned from the severe accident at Fukushima. In the task force open meeting, through discussing about design basis external natural events which should be considered in the new regulatory standards, tornado was newly introduced into new regulatory standards as an external natural event. Based on the decision that tornado was newly introduced into new regulatory standards, the Secretariat of the Nuclear Regulation Authority (SNRA) commissioned the Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization (JNES) to study an assessment guide for tornado effect on NPPs intended to be used for an official safety review for a NPP construction. JNES organized Sectional Committee for Tornado Effect Assessment Guide consisting of experts in meteorology and wind engineering fields, discussing about assessment methods for tornado effect on NPPs, draft version of the assessment guide for tornado effect on NPPs was completed on April 4, 2013, and JNES submitted the draft guide to SNRA on the same date. After that NRA called for public comments for the draft version of the assessment guide, the draft version of the assessment guide was partly amended taking posted public comments account, and tornado effect assessment guide was officially released on June 19, 2013. Contents in this paper are as follows, assessment guide for tornado effect on NPPs (Draft version on April 4, 2013), supplementary documents, calculation examples, and future tasks for further improved reliability of tornado effect assessment on NPPs. This draft guide consists of six chapters

  15. Tornado-related fatalities--five states, Southeastern United States, April 25-28, 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-20

    During April 25-28, 2011, a massive storm system generated 351 tornadoes (including 15 registering 4 or 5 on the Enhanced Fujita [EF] scale*), killing 338 persons in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee. This was the third-deadliest tornado event in the United States, surpassing an April 1974 event that resulted in 315 fatalities. This event also was historic because of the record number of fatalities that occurred despite modern advances in tornado forecasting, advanced warning times, and media coverage. Risk factors for death and injury from tornadoes are sheltering in mobile homes, proximity to an EF-4 or EF-5 tornado, being an older adult (aged ≥65 years), lack of accessibility to safe rooms (e.g., basements or reinforced shelters), and a night-time tornado impact. To describe the fatalities by demographic characteristics, type of shelter used, cause of death, and tornado severity and location, CDC reviewed data from the American Red Cross (Red Cross), death certificates, and the National Weather Service (NWS). This report summarizes the results of that review. Among the 338 decedents, median age was 55.0 years (range: 4 days-97 years); approximately one third were older adults. On tornado impact, 46.7% of decedents were in single-family homes, and 26.6% were in mobile homes. The leading cause of death was traumatic injury, including 21.9% with head injuries. Half of the deadly tornadoes were rated EF-4 or EF-5 and were responsible for 89.5% of the deaths. To prevent tornado-related deaths, health messaging should encourage the public (especially older adults and residents of mobile/manufactured homes) to pre-identify an accessible safe room, prepare the room with personal protection items (e.g., blankets and helmets), and monitor local weather.

  16. The occurrence of a tornado in Serbia on 31 march 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavlovic-Berdon Nada

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Tornado occurs very rarely in the territory of Serbia. The occurrence of a tornado above Torda (Vojvodina, Serbia on 31 March 2013 indicted the importance of monitoring such a dangerous weather phenomenon, knowing its characteristics and forecasting it. This paper analyzes the synoptic conditions and vertical structure of the atmosphere that prevailed during the development of a supercell with a tornado. Changes in temperature and air pressure are presented on mesoscale maps. The analysis was performed by using the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM. The tornado occurrence was monitored via satellite images and radar characteristics of a supercell. The cause of tornadogenesis has been ascertained. According to the EF scale, the tornado reached F0 intensity. Damages to roofs, power lines, trees and cars caused by the wind (>35ms-1 are also presented.

  17. Estimating hypothetical present-day insured losses for past intense hurricanes in the French Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, James; Desarthe, Jérémy; Naulin, Jean-Philippe; Garnier, Emmanuel; Liu, Ye; Moncoulon, David

    2015-04-01

    On the islands of the French Antilles, the period for which systematic meteorological measurements and historic event loss data are available is short relative to the recurrence intervals of very intense, damaging hurricanes. Additionally, the value of property at risk changes through time. As such, the recent past can only provide limited insight into potential losses from extreme storms in coming years. Here we present some research that seeks to overcome, as far as is possible, the limitations of record length in assessing the possible impacts of near-future hurricanes on insured properties. First, using the archives of the French overseas departments (which included administrative and weather reports, inventories of damage to houses, crops and trees, as well as some meteorological observations after 1950) we reconstructed the spatial patterns of hazard intensity associated with three historical events. They are: i) the 1928 Hurricane (Guadeloupe), ii) Hurricane Betsy (1956, Guadeloupe) and iii) Hurricane David (1979, Martinique). These events were selected because all were damaging, and the information available on each is rich. Then, using a recently developed catastrophe model for hurricanes affecting Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin, we simulated the hypothetical losses to insured properties that the reconstructed events might cause if they were to reoccur today. The model simulated damage due to wind, rainfall-induced flooding and storm surge flooding. These 'what if' scenarios provided an initial indication of the potential present-day exposure of the insurance industry to intense hurricanes. However, we acknowledge that historical events are unlikely to repeat exactly. We therefore extended the study by producing a stochastic event catalogue containing a large number of synthetic but plausible hurricane events. Instrumental data were used as a basis for event generation, but importantly the statistical methods we applied permit

  18. Teacher Guidelines for Helping Students after a Tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Child Traumatic Stress Network, 2013

    2013-01-01

    Being in a tornado can be very frightening, and the days, weeks, and months following the storm can be very stressful. Most families recover over time, especially with the support of relatives, friends, and their community. But different families may have different experiences during and after a tornado, and how long it takes them to recover will…

  19. Tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (1950-2009)

    OpenAIRE

    Gayà, M.; Llasat Botija, María del Carmen; Arús Dumenjó, Joan

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a preliminary climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). A database spanning 60 yr (1950–2009) has been developed on the basis of information collected from various sources such as weather reports, insurance companies, newspapers and damage surveys. This database has been subjected to a rigorous validation process, and the climatology describes its main features: timing, spatial pattern, and trends in the tornado and wat...

  20. A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe/Weather/Flash Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallozzi, Kyle J.

    Classical forms of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging convective wind gusts, and large hail, as well as flash flooding events, all have potentially large societal impacts. This impact is further magnified when these hazards occur simultaneously in time and space. A major challenge for operational forecasters is how to accurately predict the occurrence of combined storm hazards, and how to communicate the associated multiple threat hazards to the public. A seven-year climatology (2009-2015) of combined severe weather/flash flooding (SVR/FF) events across the contiguous United States was developed in attempt to study the combined SVR/FF event hazards further. A total of 211 total cases were identified and sub-divided into seven subcategories based on their convective morphology and meteorological characteristics. Heatmaps of event report frequency were created to extract spatial, seasonal and interannual patterns in SVR/FF event activity. Diurnal trends were examined from time series plots of tornado, hail, wind and flash flood/flood reports. Event-centered composites of environmental variables were created for each subcategory from 13 km RUC/RAP analyses. Representative cases studies were conducted for each subcategory. A "ring of fire" with the highest levels of SVR/FF event activity was noted across the central United States. SVR/FF events were least common in the Southeast, High Plains, and Northern Plains. Enhanced SVR/FF activity reflected contributions from synoptic events during the cool and shoulder seasons over the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee Valleys, and MCS activity during the warm season over the lower Great Plains, and the Upper Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Results from the composite analyses indicated that relatively high values of CAPE, surface-500 hPa shear and precipitable water were observed for all subcategories. Case studies show that many high-end SVR/FF events featured slow-moving, or quasi

  1. An experimental investigation of wind pressures on square pillars in tornado-like vortices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwatani, Yoshiharu; Maruta, Eizou; Kanda, Makoto; Hattori, Yousuke; Hamano, Naoki; Matsuura, Takeshi

    1992-01-01

    This report describes a laboratory simulation of tornado-like vortices and laboratory measurements of steady wind loads on model structures in tornado-like vortices. The variations of wind direction and wind speed of tornado-like vortices and ground surface pressure under tornado-like vortices with the swirl ratio, Reynolds number and the surface roughness were investigated. Wind pressure distributions on square pillars were measured in tornado-like vortices. It was observed in the experiment that the negative pressures on the roof faces of square pillars were high and distributed rather uniformly but these on the side faces differed greatly from place to place and locally became high. The high pressure regions on the side faces were close to ground surface in the case where the model structures stood in the center of tornado-like vortex, and became higher as the increase of distance between the model structures and the center of tornado-like vortices. (author)

  2. AM05-13-009 Experimental simulation of non-supercell tornadoes

    OpenAIRE

    佐々, 浩司; Koji, Sassa; 高知大理; Kochi Univ.

    2005-01-01

    The non-supercell tornadoes was experimentally simulated by the combination of the gust made of dry ice and the updraft fan. Three typical patterns of tornadoes were observed in relation to the change of updraft velocity. These patterns are a laminar vortex, a turbulent vortex and a spiral vortex. The resultant tornadoes were found to move with the updraft fan. They broke down when the moving velocity was larger than the mean velocity in the shear line.

  3. Hurricane Havoc - Mapping the Mayhem with NOAA's National Water Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggett, G. R.; Stone, M.

    2017-12-01

    With Hurricane Irene as an example, this work demonstrates the versatility of NOAA's new National Water Model (NWM) as a tool for analyzing hydrologic hazards before, during, and after events. Hurricane Irene made landfall on the coast of North Carolina on August 27, 2011, and made its way up the East Coast over the next 3 days. This storm caused widespread flooding across the Northeast, where rain totals over 20" and wind speeds of 100mph were recorded, causing loss of life and significant damage to infrastructure. Large portions of New York and Vermont were some of the hardest hit areas. This poster will present a suite of post-processed products, derived from NWM output, that are currently being developed at NOAA's National Water Center in Tuscaloosa, AL. The National Water Model is allowing NOAA to expand its water prediction services to the approximately 2.7 million stream reaches across the U.S. The series of forecasted and real-time analysis products presented in this poster will demonstrate the strides NOAA is taking to increase preparedness and aid response to severe hydrologic events, like Hurricane Irene.

  4. Radar-based Flood Warning System for Houston, Texas and Its Performance Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, N.; Bedient, P.

    2009-12-01

    Houston has a long history of flooding problems as a serious nature. For instance, Houstonians suffered from severe flood inundation during Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and Hurricane Ike in 2008. Radar-based flood warning systems as non-structural tools to provide accurate and timely warnings to the public and private entities are greatly needed for urban areas prone to flash floods. Fortunately, the advent of GIS, radar-based rainfall estimation using NEXRAD, and real-time delivery systems on the internet have allowed flood alert systems to provide important advanced warning of impending flood conditions. Thus, emergency personnel can take proper steps to mitigate against catastrophic losses. The Rice and Texas Medical Center (TMC) Flood Alert System (FAS2) has been delivering warning information with 2 to 3 hours of lead time to facility personnel in a readily understood format for more than 40 events since 1997. The system performed well during these major rainfall events with R square value of 93%. The current system has been improved by incorporating a new hydraulic prediction tool - FloodPlain Map Library (FPML). The FPML module aims to provide visualized information such as floodplain maps and water surface elevations instead of just showing hydrographs in real time based on NEXRAD radar rainfall data. During Hurricane Ike (September, 2008), FAS2 successfully provided precise and timely flood warning information to TMC with the peak flow difference of 3.6% and the volume difference of 5.6%; timing was excellent for this double-peaked event. With the funding from the Texas Department of Transportation, a similar flood warning system has been developed at a critical transportation pass along Highway 288 in Houston, Texas. In order to enable emergency personnel to begin flood preparation with as much lead time as possible, FAS2 is being used as a prototype to develop warning system for other flood-prone areas such as City of Sugar Land.

  5. Numerical modeling of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and potential future hurricanes on spatial patterns of salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongqing; Chen, Qin; Hu, Kelin; Snedden, Gregg A.; Hartig, Ellen K.; Couvillion, Brady R.; Johnson, Cody L.; Orton, Philip M.

    2017-03-29

    The salt marshes of Jamaica Bay, managed by the New York City Department of Parks & Recreation and the Gateway National Recreation Area of the National Park Service, serve as a recreational outlet for New York City residents, mitigate flooding, and provide habitat for critical wildlife species. Hurricanes and extra-tropical storms have been recognized as one of the critical drivers of coastal wetland morphology due to their effects on hydrodynamics and sediment transport, deposition, and erosion processes. However, the magnitude and mechanisms of hurricane effects on sediment dynamics and associated coastal wetland morphology in the northeastern United States are poorly understood. In this study, the depth-averaged version of the Delft3D modeling suite, integrated with field measurements, was utilized to examine the effects of Hurricane Sandy and future potential hurricanes on salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City. Hurricane Sandy-induced wind, waves, storm surge, water circulation, sediment transport, deposition, and erosion were simulated by using the modeling system in which vegetation effects on flow resistance, surge reduction, wave attenuation, and sedimentation were also incorporated. Observed marsh elevation change and accretion from a rod surface elevation table and feldspar marker horizons and cesium-137- and lead-210-derived long-term accretion rates were used to calibrate and validate the wind-waves-surge-sediment transport-morphology coupled model.The model results (storm surge, waves, and marsh deposition and erosion) agreed well with field measurements. The validated modeling system was then used to detect salt marsh morphological change due to Hurricane Sandy across the entire Jamaica Bay over the short-term (for example, 4 days and 1 year) and long-term (for example, 5 and 10 years). Because Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Irene (2011) were two large and destructive tropical cyclones which hit the northeast coast, the validated coupled

  6. Tornadoes in Canada for the period 1950 to 1979

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newark, M.J.

    1981-06-01

    This report has attempted to arrive at a set of quantitative conclusions concerning the physical characteristics of tornadoes from what is basically a set of qualitative data. The task was composed of a number of steps: a) finding the data in the first place, b) defining the terms and equations to be used in the study, c) devising a method of dealing with the errors and inconsistencies in the data, d) encoding it into a quantitative form, e) computerizing the encoded data for ease of sorting and calculation, and f) analyzing the result. The results of the study give details concerning the physical dimensions of tornado damage; national maps of tornado incidence and risk; probability of tornado damage in selected cities; diurnal and seasonal frequencies as well as frequencies of travel direction and F-scale number; length of tornado season. An analysis has been made of the distribution of damage length, width and area in order to find whether or not correlations exist among them, and whether or not they can be described in a mathematical fashion. No correlations were found, and although the distributions of these dimensions superficially resembled a log normal curve, this result failed to be statistically significant

  7. Dam-Break Flood Analysis Upper Hurricane Reservoir, Hartford, Vermont

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Acone, Scott

    1995-01-01

    .... Various dam break flood conditions were modeled and inundation maps developed. Based on this analysis the dam is rated a Class 2 or significant hazard category in terms of its potential to cause downstream damage...

  8. Tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (1950–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gayà

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a preliminary climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula. A database spanning 60 yr (1950–2009 has been developed on the basis of information collected from various sources such as weather reports, insurance companies, newspapers and damage surveys. This database has been subjected to a rigorous validation process, and the climatology describes its main features: timing, spatial pattern, and trends in the tornado and waterspout distribution. Results show the highest concentration of tornadoes from August to October, the highest density in the heavily populated coastal areas and a growing positive trend that is likely more closely linked to an increase in observation and perception rather than a real climatic trend.

  9. Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

    OpenAIRE

    Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Van Der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, A.G.; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi

    2017-01-01

    During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1)...

  10. Examining the effects of hurricanes Matthew and Irma on water quality in the intracoastal waterway, St. Augustine, FL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, N. D.; Osborne, T.; Dye, T.; Julian, P.

    2017-12-01

    The last several years have been marked by a high incidence of Atlantic tropical cyclones making landfall as powerful hurricanes or tropical storms. For example, in 2016 Hurricane Matthew devastated parts of the Caribbean and the southeastern United States. In 2017, this region was further battered by hurricanes Irma and Maria. Here, we present water quality data collected in the intracoastal waterway near the Whitney Lab for Marine Bioscience during hurricanes Matthew and Irma, a region that experienced flooding during both storms. YSI Exo 2 sondes were deployed to measure pH, salinity, temperature, dissolved O2, fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM), turbidity, and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) on a 15 minute interval. The Hurricane Matthew sonde deployment failed as soon as the storm hit, but revealed an interesting phenomenon leading up to the storm that was also observed during Irma. Salinity in the intracoastal waterway (off the Whitney Lab dock) typically varies from purely marine to 15-20 psu throughout the tidal cycle. However, several days before both storms approached the Florida coast (i.e. when they were near the Caribbean), the salinity signal became purely marine, overriding any tidal signal. Anecdotally, storm drains were already filled up to street level prior to the storm hitting, poising the region for immense flooding and storm surge. The opposite effect was observed after Irma moved past FL. Water became much fresher than normal for several days and it took almost a week to return to "normal" salinity tidal cycles. As both storms hit, turbidity increased by an order of magnitude for a several hour period. fDOM and O2 behaved similar to salinity during and after Irma, showing a mostly marine signal (e.g. higher O2, lower fDOM) in the lead up, and brief switch to more freshwater influence the week after the storm. Chl-a peaked several days after the storm, presumably due to mobilization of nutrient rich flood and waste waters and subsequent algae

  11. The recollective qualities of adolescents' and adults' narratives about a long-ago tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Patricia J; Stark, Emily N; Ackil, Jennifer K; Larkina, Marina; Merrill, Natalie; Fivush, Robyn

    2017-03-01

    The recollective qualities of autobiographical memory are thought to develop over the course of the first two decades of life. We used a 9-year follow-up test of recall of a devastating tornado and of non-tornado-related events from before and after the storm, to compare the recollective qualities of adolescents' (n = 20, ages 11 years, 11 months to 20 years, 8 months) and adults' (n = 14) autobiographical memories. At the time of the tornado, half of the adolescents had been younger than age 6. Nine years after the event, all participants provided evidence that they recall the event of the tornado. Adults also had high levels of recall of the non-tornado-related events. Adolescents recalled proportionally fewer non-tornado-related events; adolescents younger than 6 at the time of the events recalled the fewest non-tornado-related events. Relative to adolescents, adults produced longer narratives. With narrative length controlled, there were few differences in the recollective qualities of adolescents' and adults' narrative reports, especially in the case of the tornado; the recollective qualities were stronger among adolescents older at the time of the events. Overall, participants in both age groups provided evidence of the qualities of recollection that are characteristic of autobiographical memory.

  12. Assessment of the bases for selecting criteria for protection against tornado-entrained debris

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Read, J.B.J.; Bell, L.W.

    1977-05-01

    The probabilities and consequences of the acceleration of solid objects by air motion within a tornado are discussed, in order to assess the risks of damage from tornado missiles. Design criteria for protection against tornado missile risks are suggested

  13. Wind pressure testing of tornado safe room components made from wood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Falk; Deepak Shrestha

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate the ability of a wood tornado safe room to resist wind pressures produced by a tornado, two safe room com-ponents were tested for wind pressure strength. A tornado safe room ceiling panel and door were static-pressure-tested according to ASTM E 330 using a vacuum test system. Re-sults indicate that the panels had load capacities from 2.4 to 3.5 times that...

  14. Hurricane Evacuation Routes

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Hurricane Evacuation Routes in the United States A hurricane evacuation route is a designated route used to direct traffic inland in case of a hurricane threat. This...

  15. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  16. Hurricane Resource Reel

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This Reel Includes the Following Sections TRT 50:10 Hurricane Overviews 1:02; Hurricane Arthur 15:07; Cyclone Pam 19:48; Typhoon Hagupit 21:27; Hurricane Bertha...

  17. Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

  18. Data on rotating plasma operation in Tornado traps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehnert, B.

    1976-01-01

    Rotating plasma operation in spiral coil 'Tornado' traps provides a unique combination of confinement and heating properties. Such a system consists of a closed and compact magnetic bottle to which the crossed-field technique can be applied, in absence of end insulators and their critical velocity limitation effect. This should make possible the generation and heating of fully ionized plasmas by simple means, within a large range of ion densities, temperatures, and rotational velocities. Provided that stable operation becomes possible at high temperatures, it is likely that Tornado traps can be used as strong neutron sources of moderately large dimensions and technically realizable parameter values. Some detailed data and operation ranges are given for the 'Tornado 650' device in Leningrad, and for a somewhat larger device to be operated as neutron source. (Auth.)

  19. Full-scale tornado-missile impact tests. Interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephenson, A.E.

    1976-04-01

    Seven completed initial tests are described with 4 types of hypothetical tornado-borne missiles (impacting reinforced concrete panels that are typical of walls in nuclear power facilities). The missiles were rocket propelled to velocities currently postulated as being attainable by debris in tornadoes. (1500-pound 35-foot long utility pole; 8-pound 1-inch Grade 60 reinforcing bar; 78-pound 3-inch Schedule 40 pipe; and 743-pound 12-inch Schedule 40 pipe;) The results show that a minimum thickness of 24 inches is sufficient to prevent backface scabbing from normal impacts of currently postulated tornado missiles and that existing power plant walls are adequate for the most severe conditions currently postulated by regulatory agencies. This report gives selected detailed data on the tests completed thus far, including strain, panel velocity, and reaction histories

  20. Residential tornado safe room from commodity wood products – design and development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert H. Falk; James J. Bridwell

    2018-01-01

    In the United States, tornadoes cause significant damage and result in many injuries and deaths. Although the development and use of tornado safe rooms have helped decrease the human toll associated with these events, the cost of these structures is often too high for many that could benefit from their use. The development of a nonproprietary residential tornado safe...

  1. Science and the storms: The USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farris, G. S.; Smith, G.J.; Crane, M.P.; Demas, C.R.; Robbins, L.L.; Lavoie, D.L.

    2007-01-01

    This report is designed to give a view of the immediate response of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to four major hurricanes of 2005: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Some of this response took place days after the hurricanes; other responses included fieldwork and analysis through the spring. While hurricane science continues within the USGS, this overview of work following these hurricanes reveals how a Department of the Interior bureau quickly brought together a diverse array of its scientists and technologies to assess and analyze many hurricane effects. Topics vary from flooding and water quality to landscape and ecosystem impacts, from geotechnical reconnaissance to analyzing the collapse of bridges and estimating the volume of debris. Thus, the purpose of this report is to inform the American people of the USGS science that is available and ongoing in regard to hurricanes. It is the hope that such science will help inform the decisions of those citizens and officials tasked with coastal restoration and planning for future hurricanes. Chapter 1 is an essay establishing the need for science in building a resilient coast. The second chapter includes some hurricane facts that provide hurricane terminology, history, and maps of the four hurricanes’ paths. Chapters that follow give the scientific response of USGS to the storms. Both English and metric measurements are used in the articles in anticipation of both general and scientific audiences in the United States and elsewhere. Chapter 8 is a compilation of relevant ongoing and future hurricane work. The epilogue marks the 2-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. An index of authors follows the report to aid in finding articles that are cross-referenced within the report. In addition to performing the science needed to understand the effects of hurricanes, USGS employees helped in the rescue of citizens by boat and through technology by “geoaddressing” 911 calls after Katrina and Rita so that other

  2. Assessing the tree health impacts of salt water flooding in coastal cities: A case study in New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard Hallett; Michelle L. Johnson; Nancy F. Sonti

    2018-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy was the second costliest hurricane in United States (U.S.) history. The category 2 storm hit New York City (NYC) on the evening of October 29, 2012, causing major flooding, wind damage, and loss of life. The New York City Department of Parks & Recreation (NYC Parks) documented over 20,000 fallen street trees due to the physical impact of wind...

  3. Deflecting Hurakan: Enhancing DOD and DOS Interagency Hurricane Response Operations in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    a large-scale, extended response disaster such as massive floods and landslides produced from hurricanes, it may be necessary for the USAID/OFDA...national power to synergistically leverage their independent capabilities to counter the devastating first, second, and third order effects produced by...humanitarian assistance abroad. The first disaster occurred in March when Costa Rica endured an eruption of the Irazú volcano resulting in

  4. Modelling multi-hazard hurricane damages on an urbanized coast with a Bayesian Network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Verseveld, H.C.W.; Van Dongeren, A. R.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Jäger, W.S.; den Heijer, C.

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane flood impacts to residential buildings in coastal zones are caused by a number of hazards, such as inundation, overflow currents, erosion, and wave attack. However, traditional hurricane damage models typically make use of stage-damage functions, where the stage is related to flooding depth only. Moreover, these models are deterministic and do not consider the large amount of uncertainty associated with both the processes themselves and with the predictions. This uncertainty becomes increasingly important when multiple hazards (flooding, wave attack, erosion, etc.) are considered simultaneously. This paper focusses on establishing relationships between observed damage and multiple hazard indicators in order to make better probabilistic predictions. The concept consists of (1) determining Local Hazard Indicators (LHIs) from a hindcasted storm with use of a nearshore morphodynamic model, XBeach, and (2) coupling these LHIs and building characteristics to the observed damages. We chose a Bayesian Network approach in order to make this coupling and used the LHIs ‘Inundation depth’, ‘Flow velocity’, ‘Wave attack’, and ‘Scour depth’ to represent flooding, current, wave impacts, and erosion related hazards.The coupled hazard model was tested against four thousand damage observations from a case site at the Rockaway Peninsula, NY, that was impacted by Hurricane Sandy in late October, 2012. The model was able to accurately distinguish ‘Minor damage’ from all other outcomes 95% of the time and could distinguish areas that were affected by the storm, but not severely damaged, 68% of the time. For the most heavily damaged buildings (‘Major Damage’ and ‘Destroyed’), projections of the expected damage underestimated the observed damage. The model demonstrated that including multiple hazards doubled the prediction skill, with Log-Likelihood Ratio test (a measure of improved accuracy and reduction in uncertainty) scores between 0.02 and 0

  5. Flood safety in the Netherlands: the Dutch political response to hurricane Katrina

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wesselink, A.

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, I discuss why the Dutch culture, although highly technological, remains vulnerable to flooding, with no apparent choice except to continue with its historically developed system for flood risk management. I show that this vulnerability is socially constructed. It has arisen as a

  6. An experimental investigation of flow around a vehicle passing through a tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Masahiro; Obara, Kouhei; Okura, Nobuyuki

    2016-03-01

    Flow around a vehicle running through a tornado was investigated experimentally. A tornado simulator was developed to generate a tornado-like swirl flow. PIV study confirmed that the simulator generates two-celled vortices which are observed in the natural tornadoes. A moving test rig was developed to run a 1/40 scaled train-shaped model vehicle under the tornado simulator. The car contained pressure sensors, a data logger with an AD converter to measure unsteady surface pressures during its run through the swirling flow. Aerodynamic forces acting on the vehicle were estimated from the pressure data. The results show that the aerodynamic forces change its magnitude and direction depending on the position of the car in the swirling flow. The asymmetry of the forces about the vortex centre suggests the vehicle itself may deform the flow field.

  7. An experimental investigation of flow around a vehicle passing through a tornado

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzuki Masahiro

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flow around a vehicle running through a tornado was investigated experimentally. A tornado simulator was developed to generate a tornado-like swirl flow. PIV study confirmed that the simulator generates two-celled vortices which are observed in the natural tornadoes. A moving test rig was developed to run a 1/40 scaled train-shaped model vehicle under the tornado simulator. The car contained pressure sensors, a data logger with an AD converter to measure unsteady surface pressures during its run through the swirling flow. Aerodynamic forces acting on the vehicle were estimated from the pressure data. The results show that the aerodynamic forces change its magnitude and direction depending on the position of the car in the swirling flow. The asymmetry of the forces about the vortex centre suggests the vehicle itself may deform the flow field.

  8. Numerical simulation of tornado-borne missile impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tu, D.K.; Murray, R.C.

    1977-01-01

    The feasibility of using a finite element procedure to examine the impact phenomenon of a tornado-borne missile impinging on a reinforced concrete barrier was assessed. The major emphasis of this study was to simulate the impact of a nondeformable missile. Several series of simulations were run, using an 8-in.-dia steel slug as the impacting missile. The numerical results were then compared with experimental field tests and empirical formulas. The work is in support of tornado design practices for fuel reprocessing and fuel fabrication plants

  9. DYNAMICS OF A SOLAR PROMINENCE TORNADO OBSERVED BY SDO/AIA ON 2012 NOVEMBER 7–8

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mghebrishvili, Irakli; Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V.; Kukhianidze, Vasil; Ramishvili, Giorgi [Abastumani Astrophysical Observatory at Ilia State University, University St. 2, Tbilisi, Georgia (United States); Shergelashvili, Bidzina [Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Schmiedlstrasse 6, A-8042 Graz (Austria); Veronig, Astrid [IGAM-Kanzelhöhe Observatory, Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Universitätsplatz 5, A-8010 Graz (Austria); Poedts, Stefaan, E-mail: teimuraz.zaqarashvili@oeaw.ac.at [Centre for Mathematical Plasma Astrophysics, Celestijnenlaan 200B, B-3001 Leuven (Belgium)

    2015-09-10

    We study the detailed dynamics of a solar prominence tornado using time series of 171, 304, 193, and 211 Å spectral lines obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly during 2012 November 7–8. The tornado first appeared at 08:00 UT, November 07, near the surface, gradually rose upwards with the mean speed of ∼1.5 km s{sup −1} and persisted over 30 hr. Time–distance plots show two patterns of quasi-periodic transverse displacements of the tornado axis with periods of 40 and 50 minutes at different phases of the tornado evolution. The first pattern occurred during the rising phase and can be explained by the upward motion of the twisted tornado. The second pattern occurred during the later stage of evolution when the tornado already stopped rising and could be caused either by MHD kink waves in the tornado or by the rotation of two tornado threads around a common axis. The later hypothesis is supported by the fact that the tornado sometimes showed a double structure during the quasi-periodic phase. 211 and 193 Å spectral lines show a coronal cavity above the prominence/tornado, which started expansion at ∼13:00 UT and continuously rose above the solar limb. The tornado finally became unstable and erupted together with the corresponding prominence as coronal mass ejection (CME) at 15:00 UT, November 08. The final stage of the evolution of the cavity and the tornado-related prominence resembles the magnetic breakout model. On the other hand, the kink instability may destabilize the twisted tornado, and consequently prominence tornadoes can be used as precursors for CMEs.

  10. Beyond the Floodplain: Drivers of Flood Risk in Coastal Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, B.; McPhearson, T.; Rosi, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    While the catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Katrina increased awareness of coastal flood risk, conventional approaches to flood risk assessment do not adequately represent the drivers of flood risk in the unique, highly engineered landscape of dense cities. We review the recent (1996-2016) history of flooding events and current regional climate change projection for 4 diverse coastal cities in the United States: San Juan, Miami, Baltimore and New York. Our review suggests that while all 4 of these cities face increased risk from direct coastal flooding with climate change, pluvial flooding will be an additional, important driver of risk that is currently poorly quantified. Unlike other types of flooding, pluvial flood risk is not limited to a contiguous riverine or coastal floodplain, but is instead driven by interactions between spatially variable geophysical drivers (intense rainfall, shallow groundwater, and influent tidal water), social drivers (patterns of land use) and technical drivers (urban stormwater and coastal infrastructure). We discuss approaches for quantitative assessment of pluvial flood risk, the challenges presented by the lack of data on geophysical flooding drivers in dense cities, and opportunities for integrated research to provide the scientific information needed by practitioners.

  11. Tornado Protection: Selecting and Designing Safe Areas in Buildings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abernethy, James J.

    Tornadoes and extreme winds cause heavy loss of life and property damage throughout the United States. Most buildings offer significant protection from this danger, and building administrators should know the areas where this protection is available. This booklet presents a review of three schools, all of which were struck by tornadoes on April 3,…

  12. Impacts of Extreme Flooding on Hydrologic Connectivity and Water Quality in the Atlantic Coastal Plain and Implications for Vulnerable Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riveros-Iregui, D. A.; Moser, H. A.; Christenson, E. C.; Gray, J.; Hedgespeth, M. L.; Jass, T. L.; Lowry, D. S.; Martin, K.; Nichols, E. G.; Stewart, J. R.; Emanuel, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    In October 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought extreme flooding to eastern North Carolina, including record regional flooding along the Lumber River and its tributaries in the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Situated in a region dominated by large-scale crop-cultivation and containing some of the highest densities of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) and animal processing operations in the U.S., the Lumber River watershed is also home to the Lumbee Tribe of American Indians. Most of the tribe's 60,000+ members live within or immediately adjacent to the 3,000 km2 watershed where they maintain deep cultural and historical connections. The region, however, also suffers from high rates of poverty and large disparities in healthcare, education, and infrastructure, conditions exacerbated by Hurricane Matthew. We summarize ongoing efforts to characterize the short- and long-term impacts of extreme flooding on water quality in (1) low gradient streams and riverine wetlands of the watershed; (2) surficial aquifers, which provide water resources for the local communities, and (3) public drinking water supplies, which derive from deeper, confined aquifers but whose infrastructure suffered widespread damage following Hurricane Matthew. Our results provide mechanistic understanding of flood-related connectivity across multiple hydrologic compartments, and provide important implications for how hydrological natural hazards combine with land use to drive water quality impacts and affect vulnerable populations.

  13. Doppler Radar and Lightning Network Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis E.; Goodman, Steven J.; Cammarata, Michael

    2004-01-01

    Data from a single Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak, including three tornadoes that reached F3 intensity, within Tropical Storm Beryl s remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 h. spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 h. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes longer than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) tornado event. This event is easily the most intense TC tornado outbreak yet documented with WSR-88Ds. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined in Beryl s remnants. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, their flash rates were only weak to moderate, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. There is evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during the tornadoes, compared to 30-min periods before the tornadoes. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Contrary to the findings for flash rates, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl's nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones.

  14. Comprehensive analysis of tornado statistics in comparison to earthquakes: intensity and temporal behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Schielicke

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Tornadoes and earthquakes are characterised by a high variability in their properties concerning intensity, geometric properties and temporal behaviour. Earthquakes are known for power-law behaviour in their intensity (Gutenberg–Richter law and temporal statistics (e.g. Omori law and interevent waiting times. The observed similarity of high variability of these two phenomena motivated us to compare the statistical behaviour of tornadoes using seismological methods and quest for power-law behaviour. In general, the statistics of tornadoes show power-law behaviour partly coextensive with characteristic scales when the temporal resolution is high (10 to 60 min. These characteristic scales match with the typical diurnal behaviour of tornadoes, which is characterised by a maximum of tornado occurrences in the late afternoon hours. Furthermore, the distributions support the observation that tornadoes cluster in time. Finally, we shortly discuss a possible similar underlying structure composed of heterogeneous, coupled, interactive threshold oscillators that possibly explains the observed behaviour.

  15. Spatial Distributions of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes by Intensity and Size Characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Todd W. Moore; Nicholas J. Sokol; Robert A. Blume

    2017-01-01

    Tropical cyclones that make landfall often spawn tornadoes. Previous studies have shown that these tornadoes are not uniformly distributed in the United States or in the tropical cyclone environment. They show that tornadoes tend to occur relatively close to the coastline and that they tend to cluster to the east-of-center in the tropical cyclone environment, particularly in the northeast and east-of-center quadrants. This study contributes to these studies by analyzing the spatial distributi...

  16. Polarimetric Radar Retrievals in Southeast Texas During Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, D. B.; Petersen, W. A.; Tokay, A.; Marks, D. A.; Pippitt, J. L.; Kirstetter, P. E.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on August 25, 2017 before exiting the state as a tropical storm on September 1, 2017. In its wake, it left a flood of historic proportions, with some areas measuring 60 inches of rain over a five-day period. Although the storm center stayed west of the immediate Houston area training bands of precipitation impacted the Houston area for five full days. The National Weather Service (NWS) WSR88D dual-polarimetric radar (KHGX), located southeast of Houston, maintained operations for the entirety of the event. The Harris County Flood Warning System (HCFWS) had 150 rain gauges deployed in its network and seven NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) rain gauges are also located in the area. In this study, we used the full radar data set to retrieve daily and event-total precipitation estimates within 120 km of the KHGX radar for the period August 25-29, 2017. These estimates were then compared to the HCFWS and ASOS gauges. Three different polarimetric hybrid rainfall retrievals were used: Ciffeli et al. 2011; Bringi et al. 2004; and, Chen et al. 2017. Each of these hybrid retrievals have demonstrated robust performance in the past. However, both daily and event-total comparisons from each of these retrievals compared to those of HCFWS and ASOS rain gauge networks resulted in significant underestimates by the radar retrievals. These radar underestimates are concerning. Sources of error and variance will be investigated to understand the source of radar-gauge disagreement. One current hypothesis is that due to the large number of small drops often found in hurricanes, the differential reflectivity and specific differential phase are relatively small so that the hybrid algorithms use only the reflectivity/rain rate procedure (so called Z-R relationships), and hence rarely invoke the ZDR or KDP procedures. Thus, an alternative Z-R relationship must be invoked to retrieve accurate rain rate estimates.

  17. Apophysomyces trapeziformis infection associated with a tornado-related injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weddle, Gina; Gandy, Kimberly; Bratcher, Denise; Pahud, Barbara; Jackson, Mary Anne

    2012-06-01

    This report defines the role of Apophysomyces as an aggressive fungal pathogen seen after a tornado injury. Clinical and laboratory manifestations of infections after environmentally contaminated wounds incurred during a tornado are outlined, emphasizing mechanism of injury, comorbidities, and diagnostic and treatment challenges. Therapy with systemic antifungal therapy and aggressive serial tissue debridement was successful in achieving cure.

  18. The Importance of Hurricane Research to Life, Property, the Economy, and National Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busalacchi, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    The devastating 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has brought into stark relief how much hurricane forecasts have improved - and how important it is to make them even better. Whereas the error in 48-hour track forecasts has been reduced by more than half, according to the National Hurricane Center, intensity forecasts remain challenging, especially with storms such as Harvey that strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in less than three days. The unusually active season, with Hurricane Irma sustaining 185-mph winds for a record 36 hours and two Atlantic hurricanes reaching 150-mph winds simultaneously for the first time, also highlighted what we do, and do not, know about how tropical cyclones will change as the climate warms. The extraordinary toll of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria - which may ultimately be responsible for hundreds of deaths and an estimated $200 billion or more in damages - underscores why investments into improved forecasting must be a national priority. At NCAR and UCAR, scientists are working with their colleagues at federal agencies, the private sector, and the university community to advance our understanding of these deadly storms. Among their many projects, NCAR researchers are making experimental tropical cyclone forecasts using an innovative Earth system model that allows for variable resolution. We are working with NOAA to issue flooding, inundation, and streamflow forecasts for areas hit by hurricanes, and we have used extremely high-resolution regional models to simulate successfully the rapid hurricane intensification that has proved so difficult to predict. We are assessing ways to better predict the damage potential of tropical cyclones by looking beyond wind speed to consider such important factors as the size and forward motion of the storm. On the important question of climate change, scientists have experimented with running coupled climate models at a high enough resolution to spin up a hurricane

  19. Spatial analysis of landfills in respect to flood events and sea-level rise using ArcGIS Pro

    OpenAIRE

    Taylor, Benjamin S; Fei, Songlin

    2017-01-01

    "Recently in the news, media coverage of flood events has garnered attention due to tropical storms like Hurricane Harvey and the costly damages that resulted. Under climate change, events like sea-level rise (SLR) and flooding are projected to increase which threaten infrastructure, making it necessary for proper planning before, during, and after installation of landfills to mitigate risk. Studies in Austria and the UK have revealed that many landfills are located in flood zones in addition...

  20. An evaluation method for tornado missile strike probability with stochastic correction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eguchi, Yuzuru; Murakami, Takahiro; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Hattori, Yasuo [Nuclear Risk Research Center (External Natural Event Research Team), Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko (Japan)

    2017-03-15

    An efficient evaluation method for the probability of a tornado missile strike without using the Monte Carlo method is proposed in this paper. A major part of the proposed probability evaluation is based on numerical results computed using an in-house code, Tornado-borne missile analysis code, which enables us to evaluate the liftoff and flight behaviors of unconstrained objects on the ground driven by a tornado. Using the Tornado-borne missile analysis code, we can obtain a stochastic correlation between local wind speed and flight distance of each object, and this stochastic correlation is used to evaluate the conditional strike probability, QV(r), of a missile located at position r, where the local wind speed is V. In contrast, the annual exceedance probability of local wind speed, which can be computed using a tornado hazard analysis code, is used to derive the probability density function, p(V). Then, we finally obtain the annual probability of tornado missile strike on a structure with the convolutional integration of product of QV(r) and p(V) over V. The evaluation method is applied to a simple problem to qualitatively confirm the validity, and to quantitatively verify the results for two extreme cases in which an object is located just in the vicinity of or far away from the structure.

  1. An evaluation method for tornado missile strike probability with stochastic correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eguchi, Yuzuru; Murakami, Takahiro; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Hattori, Yasuo

    2017-01-01

    An efficient evaluation method for the probability of a tornado missile strike without using the Monte Carlo method is proposed in this paper. A major part of the proposed probability evaluation is based on numerical results computed using an in-house code, Tornado-borne missile analysis code, which enables us to evaluate the liftoff and flight behaviors of unconstrained objects on the ground driven by a tornado. Using the Tornado-borne missile analysis code, we can obtain a stochastic correlation between local wind speed and flight distance of each object, and this stochastic correlation is used to evaluate the conditional strike probability, QV(r), of a missile located at position r, where the local wind speed is V. In contrast, the annual exceedance probability of local wind speed, which can be computed using a tornado hazard analysis code, is used to derive the probability density function, p(V). Then, we finally obtain the annual probability of tornado missile strike on a structure with the convolutional integration of product of QV(r) and p(V) over V. The evaluation method is applied to a simple problem to qualitatively confirm the validity, and to quantitatively verify the results for two extreme cases in which an object is located just in the vicinity of or far away from the structure

  2. Prepare to protect: Operating and maintaining a tornado safe room.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herseth, Andrew; Goldsmith-Grinspoon, Jennifer; Scott, Pataya

    2017-06-01

    Operating and maintaining a tornado safe room can be critical to the effective continuity of business operations because a firm's most valuable asset is its people. This paper describes aspects of operations and maintenance (O&M) for existing tornado safe rooms as well as a few planning and design aspects that affect the ultimate operation of a safe room for situations where a safe room is planned, but not yet constructed. The information is based on several Federal Emergency Management Agency safe room publications that provide guidance on emergency management and operations, as well as the design and construction of tornado safe rooms.

  3. Millimeter-wave molecular line observations of the Tornado nebula

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakai, D.; Oka, T.; Tanaka, K.; Matsumura, S.; Miura, K.; Takekawa, S.

    2014-01-01

    We report the results of millimeter-wave molecular line observations of the Tornado Nebula (G357.7-0.1), which is a bright radio source behind the Galactic center region. A 15' × 15' area was mapped in the J = 1-0 lines of CO, 13 CO, and HCO + with the Nobeyama Radio Observatory 45 m telescope. The Very Large Array archival data of OH at 1720 MHz were also reanalyzed. We found two molecular clouds with separate velocities, V LSR = –14 km s –1 and +5 km s –1 . These clouds show rough spatial anti-correlation. Both clouds are associated with OH 1720 MHz emissions in the area overlapping with the Tornado Nebula. The spatial and velocity coincidence indicates violent interaction between the clouds and the Tornado Nebula. Modestly excited gas prefers the position of the Tornado 'head' in the –14 km s –1 cloud, also suggesting the interaction. Virial analysis shows that the +5 km s –1 cloud is more tightly bound by self-gravity than the –14 km s –1 cloud. We propose a formation scenario for the Tornado Nebula; the +5 km s –1 cloud collided into the –14 km s –1 cloud, generating a high-density layer behind the shock front, which activates a putative compact object by Bondi-Hoyle-Lyttleton accretion to eject a pair of bipolar jets.

  4. From drought to flooding in less than a week over South Carolina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan L. Case

    Full Text Available A deep tropical moisture connection to Hurricane Joaquin led to historic rainfall and flooding over South Carolina from 3 to 5 October 2015, erasing the prevailing moderate to severe meteorological and agricultural drought that had developed from May through September. NASA’s Global Precipitation Mission constellation of satellites and a real-time implementation of the NASA Land Information System highlight the precipitation and land surface response of this event. Keywords: Extreme precipitation, Flooding, NASA, Land surface modeling, Soil moisture

  5. Annual and seasonal tornado activity in the United States and the global wind oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Todd W.

    2018-06-01

    Previous studies have searched for relationships between tornado activity and atmospheric teleconnections to provide insight on the relationship between tornadoes, their environments, and larger scale patterns in the climate system. Knowledge of these relationships is practical because it can improve seasonal and sub-seasonal predictions of tornado probability and, therefore, help mitigate tornado-related losses. This study explores the relationships between the annual and seasonal tornado activity in the United States and the Global Wind Oscillation. Time series herein show that phases of the Global Wind Oscillation, and atmospheric angular momentum anomalies, vary over a period of roughly 20-25 years. Rank correlations indicate that tornado activity is weakly correlated with phases 2, 3, and 4 (positive) and 6, 7, and 8 (negative) of the Global Wind Oscillation in winter, spring, and fall. The correlation is not as clear in summer or at the annual scale. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney U tests indicate that winters and springs with more phase 2, 3, and 4 and fewer phase 6, 7, and 8 days tend to have more tornadoes. Lastly, logistic regression models indicate that winters and springs with more phase 2, 3, and 4 days have greater likelihoods of having more than normal tornado activity. Combined, these analyses suggest that seasons with more low atmospheric angular momentum days, or phase 2, 3, and 4 days, tend to have greater tornado activity than those with fewer days, and that this relationship is most evident in winter and spring.

  6. Annual and seasonal tornado activity in the United States and the global wind oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Todd W.

    2017-08-01

    Previous studies have searched for relationships between tornado activity and atmospheric teleconnections to provide insight on the relationship between tornadoes, their environments, and larger scale patterns in the climate system. Knowledge of these relationships is practical because it can improve seasonal and sub-seasonal predictions of tornado probability and, therefore, help mitigate tornado-related losses. This study explores the relationships between the annual and seasonal tornado activity in the United States and the Global Wind Oscillation. Time series herein show that phases of the Global Wind Oscillation, and atmospheric angular momentum anomalies, vary over a period of roughly 20-25 years. Rank correlations indicate that tornado activity is weakly correlated with phases 2, 3, and 4 (positive) and 6, 7, and 8 (negative) of the Global Wind Oscillation in winter, spring, and fall. The correlation is not as clear in summer or at the annual scale. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney U tests indicate that winters and springs with more phase 2, 3, and 4 and fewer phase 6, 7, and 8 days tend to have more tornadoes. Lastly, logistic regression models indicate that winters and springs with more phase 2, 3, and 4 days have greater likelihoods of having more than normal tornado activity. Combined, these analyses suggest that seasons with more low atmospheric angular momentum days, or phase 2, 3, and 4 days, tend to have greater tornado activity than those with fewer days, and that this relationship is most evident in winter and spring.

  7. Tornado frequency in the USA - meteorological and non-meteorological factors of a downward trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihajlović Jovan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Citing numerical simulations, climate alarmists believe that global warming will lead to more frequent and more intensive tornadoes. Considering temperature increase data in the contiguous USA, this study has investigated the trend of strong tornadoes in F3+ category in the 1954-2012 period. Statistically significant decrease of tornadoes per year at an average rate of 0.44 has been recorded, that is, 4.4 tornadoes per decade. Tornado increase has been recorded with F0 and F1 categories and the cause of this increase lies in meteorological and non-meteorological factors. By using upper and lower standard deviation values, the stages of tornado activity have been singled out. The 1957-1974 period may be considered as an active stage and the 1978-2009 period as an inactive stage. Upward trend of air temperature increase does not correspond with the downward trend of the number of F3+ tornado category, while the correlation coefficient between these two variables is R = −0.14. This fact does not correspond with the simulation results and output data of various numerical models anticipating an increase in the number and intensity of tornado events in the conditions of surface air temperature growth.

  8. Investigation of obstacles against effective crisis management in earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmood Nekoei-Moghadam

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Floods, hurricanes, landslides, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes are events that a large group of people on earth are affected. In December 2003, the residents of Bam, Iran experienced an earthquake that measured 6.6 on the Richter scale and destroyed more than 90% of the city. The purpose of this study was to investigate obstacles against effective crisis management with considering service received by individuals in the Bam earthquake. In this study, domestic journals, foreign dissertations in Persian bases such as Google scholar, Magiran, IranMedex, SID and in English bases such as PubMed, Web of Science, Google scholar were used. The results of this study showed that there were many problems in various aspects of planning including: lack of coherent programs, lack of attention to the needs of health care, poor coordination between agencies and organizations and lack of appropriate training of volunteers and people.

  9. Hurricane Imaging Radiometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecil, Daniel J.; Biswas, Sayak K.; James, Mark W.; Roberts, J. Brent; Jones, W. Linwood; Johnson, James; Farrar, Spencer; Sahawneh, Saleem; Ruf, Christopher S.; Morris, Mary; hide

    2014-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a synthetic thinned array passive microwave radiometer designed to allow retrieval of surface wind speed in hurricanes, up through category five intensity. The retrieval technology follows the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which measures surface wind speed in hurricanes along a narrow strip beneath the aircraft. HIRAD maps wind speeds in a swath below the aircraft, about 50-60 km wide when flown in the lower stratosphere. HIRAD has flown in the NASA Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment in 2010 on a WB-57 aircraft, and on a Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) in 2012 and 2013 as part of NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) program. The GRIP program included flights over Hurricanes Earl and Karl (2010). The 2012 HS3 deployment did not include any hurricane flights for the UAS carrying HIRAD. The 2013 HS3 flights included one flight over the predecessor to TS Gabrielle, and one flight over Hurricane Ingrid. This presentation will describe the HIRAD instrument, its results from the 2010 and 2013 flights, and potential future developments.

  10. Flood of September 22, 1998, in Arecibo and Utuado, Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Sierra, Heriberto

    2002-01-01

    Hurricane Georges made landfall on the southeastern part of Puerto Rico during September 21, 1998. Georges, with maximum sustained winds of 185 kilometers per hour and gusts to 240 kilometers per hour, produced 24-hour total rainfall amounts of 770 millimeters on the island's mountainous interior. Severe flooding affected almost half of the island's 78 municipios during September 21-22, 1998. The most affected municipios were Adjuntas, Aguada, Aguadilla, A?asco, Arecibo, Cayey, Ciales, Comerio, Barceloneta, Dorado, Jayuya, Manati, Mayaguez, Morovis, Orocovis, Patillas, Toa Alta, Toa Baja, and Utuado. The combination of strong winds, intense rainfall and severe flooding caused widespread property damages. More than 20,000 houses were destroyed and more than 100,000 houses sustained damage. Floodwaters and landslides destroyed or damaged many bridges and roads throughout the island. Records indicate that Hurricane Georges induced flood discharges in the Rio Grande de Arecibo Basin that were the largest on record. Floodwaters inundated urban and rural areas, affecting urban subdivisions, businesses, vehicles, bridges, roads, and high-tension electric power lines. To define the extent and depth of inundation, more than 280 high-water marks were identified and surveyed in Arecibo and Utuado. In addition estimates of flood magnitude and frequency were made at selected gaging stations, and flood profiles were developed for certain stream reaches. Flooding was most severe in the towns of Arecibo and Utuado. In Arecibo, the most affected communities were the rural area of San Francisco, the urban subdivisions of Martell, Nolla, and Arecibo Gardens, and the low-lying areas of downtown Arecibo. In these areas, the water depths ranged from 0.6 to 1.8 meters. In Utuado, floodwaters from the Rio Vivi and the Rio Grande de Arecibo inundated the downtown area affecting homes, public facilities, and businesses. In the urban subdivision of Jesus Maria Lago, the depth of flooding

  11. ASSESSMENT OF TORNADOS WITH THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. NUCUŢĂ

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of tornadoes with the Enhanced Fujita Scale in Romania. An analysis of the damage caused by a tornado, in order to determine the maximum wind speed that was reached, is important both in terms of documenting the phenomenon and to make improvements to the evaluation method which is used, especially if this method is not specific for the analyzed territory. An overview of the way the tornado from Silivaşu de Câmpie, on the 26th of May 2010, was termed EF2 is done to summarize the difficulties that arise in the assessment of tornadoes occurring in Romania with the Enhanced Fujita scale. The lack of correlation between damage indicators, different construction styles and building materials between those in the United States and those selected in this case study are the main issues addressed. Solutions for these issues are discussed as a starting point for the adjustment of Enhanced Fujita scale for Romania.

  12. Schools in Kansas with Tornado Protection. Shawnee Mission Public Schools--District No. 512.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Delbert B.

    Kansas and nearby Missouri are among the half-dozen states in America having the greatest frequency of tornadoes of any region in the world. This booklet describes a districtwide approach of designing and constructing tornado-resistant shelters as integrated parts of the school facilities. The design criteria for tornado protection also resulted…

  13. Assessing Hurricane Katrina Vegetation Damage at Stennis Space Center using IKONOS Image Classification Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Ross, Kenton W.; Graham, William D.

    2007-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina hit southwestern Mississippi on August 29, 2005, at 9:45 a.m. CDT as a category 3 storm with surges up to approx. 9 m and sustained winds of approx. 120 mph. The hurricane's wind, rain, and flooding devastated several coastal towns, from New Orleans through Mobile. The storm also caused significant damage to infrastructure and vegetation of NASA's SSC (Stennis Space Center). Storm recovery at SSC involved not only repairs of critical infrastructure but also forest damage mitigation (via timber harvests and control burns to reduce fire risk). This presentation discusses an effort to use commercially available high spatial resolution multispectral IKONOS data for vegetation damage assessment, based on data collected over SSC on September 2, 2005.

  14. Differential pressures on building walls during tornados

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeh, G.C.K.

    1975-01-01

    In the United States, containment structures and some auxiliary structures (control building, auxiliary building, spent fuel building, etc.) in nuclear power plants are required to be designed to withstand the effects of the design basis tornado. In addition to velocity pressures and missile impact a tornado also gives rise to a rapid change in atmospheric pressure, which can, in cases of closed or partially vented structures, produce direct differential pressure loading. In this paper a digital computer program is described which applies a tornado-induced, time-dependent atmospheric pressure change to a building and calculates the differential pressure histories across the interior and exterior walls of the building. Laws for quasi-steady, one-dimensional motion of an ideal compressible gas are used to calculate the pressures due to the flow of air through ports, doors and windows in the building. Numerical examples show that for each assumed atmospheric pressure change history a vent area to compartment volume ratio may be specified as the criterion for a building to be considered fully vented. (orig.) [de

  15. Hurricane Katrina Wind Investigation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desjarlais, A. O.

    2007-08-15

    ; (2) Updated and improved application guidelines and manuals from associations and manufacturers; (3) Launched certified product installer programs; and (4) Submitted building code changes to improve product installation. Estimated wind speeds at the damage locations came from simulated hurricane models prepared by Applied Research Associates of Raleigh, North Carolina. A dynamic hurricane wind field model was calibrated to actual wind speeds measured at 12 inland and offshore stations. The maximum estimated peak gust wind speeds in Katrina were in the 120-130 mph range. Hurricane Katrina made landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana, and traveled almost due north across the city of New Orleans. Hurricane winds hammered the coastline from Houma, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida. The severe flooding problems in New Orleans made it almost impossible for the investigating teams to function inside the city. Thus the WIP investigations were all conducted in areas east of the city. The six teams covered the coastal areas from Bay Saint Louis, Mississippi, on the west to Pascagoula, Mississippi, on the east. Six teams involving a total of 25 persons documented damage to both low slope and steep slope roofing systems. The teams collected specific information on each building examined, including type of structure (use or occupancy), wall construction, roof type, roof slope, building dimensions, roof deck, insulation, construction, and method of roof attachment. In addition, the teams noted terrain exposure and the estimated wind speeds at the building site from the Katrina wind speed map. With each team member assigned a specific duty, they described the damage in detail and illustrated important features with numerous color photos. Where possible, the points of damage initiation were identified and damage propagation described. Because the wind speeds in Katrina at landfall, where the investigations took place, were less than code-specified design speeds, one would expect roof

  16. Tornado missile simulation and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Chu, J.

    1978-01-01

    Mathematical models of the contributing events to the tornado missile hazard at nuclear power plants have been developed in which the major sources of uncertainty have been considered in a probabilistic framework. These models have been structured into a sequential event formalism which permits the treatment of both single and multiple missile generation events. A simulation computer code utilizing these models has been developed to obtain estimates of tornado missile event likelihoods. Two case studies have been analyzed; the results indicate that the probability of a single missile from the sampling population impacting any of the plant's targets is less then about 10 -7 per reactor-year. Additional work is needed for verification and sensitivity study

  17. Data on rotating plasma operation in Tornado traps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehnert, B.

    1977-01-01

    Rotating plasma operation in spiral coil 'Tornado' traps provides a unique combination of confinement and heating properties. Such a system consists of a closed and compact magnetic bottle to which the crossed-field technique can be applied, in absence of end insulators and their critical velocity limitation effect. This is expected to lead to the generation and heating of fully ionized plasmas within a large range of ion densities, temperatures, and rotational velocities. Provided that stable operation becomes possible at high temperatures and the effects due to the asymmetries of the spiral coil structure can be neglected, it is likely that Tornado traps can be used as strong neutron sources of moderately large dimensions and technically realizable parameter values. Some detailed data and operation ranges are outlined for the 'Tornado 650' device in Leningrad, and for a somewhat larger device which may be operated as a neutron source. (Auth.)

  18. 77 FR 64564 - Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-22

    ...-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Proposed interim...-ISG-024, ``Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles....221, ``Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants.'' DATES: Submit...

  19. Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Glantz

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time.

    Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region.

    The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1.

    Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on

  20. Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glantz, M. H.

    2008-04-01

    By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time. Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region. The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1). Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on the order of 20 feet or so. The Ninth Ward, heavily

  1. Tornado outbreak variability follows Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K; Cohen, Joel E

    2016-02-29

    Tornadoes cause loss of life and damage to property each year in the United States and around the world. The largest impacts come from 'outbreaks' consisting of multiple tornadoes closely spaced in time. Here we find an upward trend in the annual mean number of tornadoes per US tornado outbreak for the period 1954-2014. Moreover, the variance of this quantity is increasing more than four times as fast as the mean. The mean and variance of the number of tornadoes per outbreak vary according to Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling (TL), with parameters that are consistent with multiplicative growth. Tornado-related atmospheric proxies show similar power-law scaling and multiplicative growth. Path-length-integrated tornado outbreak intensity also follows TL, but with parameters consistent with sampling variability. The observed TL power-law scaling of outbreak severity means that extreme outbreaks are more frequent than would be expected if mean and variance were independent or linearly related.

  2. Tornado outbreak variability follows Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Cohen, Joel E.

    2016-01-01

    Tornadoes cause loss of life and damage to property each year in the United States and around the world. The largest impacts come from ‘outbreaks' consisting of multiple tornadoes closely spaced in time. Here we find an upward trend in the annual mean number of tornadoes per US tornado outbreak for the period 1954–2014. Moreover, the variance of this quantity is increasing more than four times as fast as the mean. The mean and variance of the number of tornadoes per outbreak vary according to Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling (TL), with parameters that are consistent with multiplicative growth. Tornado-related atmospheric proxies show similar power-law scaling and multiplicative growth. Path-length-integrated tornado outbreak intensity also follows TL, but with parameters consistent with sampling variability. The observed TL power-law scaling of outbreak severity means that extreme outbreaks are more frequent than would be expected if mean and variance were independent or linearly related. PMID:26923210

  3. Assessing the environmental justice consequences of flood risk: a case study in Miami, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Marilyn C.; Chakraborty, Jayajit

    2015-09-01

    Recent environmental justice (EJ) research has emphasized the need to analyze social inequities in the distribution of natural hazards such as hurricanes and floods, and examine intra-ethnic diversity in patterns of EJ. This study contributes to the emerging EJ scholarship on exposure to flooding and ethnic heterogeneity by analyzing the racial/ethnic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population residing within coastal and inland flood risk zones in the Miami Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), Florida—one of the most ethnically diverse MSAs in the U.S. and one of the most hurricane-prone areas in the world. We examine coastal and inland flood zones separately because of differences in amenities such as water views and beach access. Instead of treating the Hispanic population as a homogenous group, we disaggregate the Hispanic category into relevant country-of-origin subgroups. Inequities in flood risk exposure are statistically analyzed using socio-demographic variables derived from the 2010 U.S. Census and 2007-2011 American Community Survey estimates, and 100-year flood risk zones from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Social vulnerability is represented with two neighborhood deprivation indices called economic insecurity and instability. We also analyze the presence of seasonal/vacation homes and proximity to public beach access sites as water-related amenity variables. Logistic regression modeling is utilized to estimate the odds of neighborhood-level exposure to coastal and inland 100-year flood risks. Results indicate that neighborhoods with greater percentages of non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics, and Hispanic subgroups of Colombians and Puerto Ricans are exposed to inland flood risks in areas without water-related amenities, while Mexicans are inequitably exposed to coastal flood risks. Our findings demonstrate the importance of treating coastal and inland flood risks separately while controlling for water-related amenities, and

  4. An analysis of the synoptic and dynamical characteristics of hurricane Sandy (2012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varlas, George; Papadopoulos, Anastasios; Katsafados, Petros

    2018-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy affected the Caribbean Islands and the Northeastern United States in October 2012 and caused 233 fatalities, severe rainfalls, floods, electricity blackouts, and 75 billion U.S. dollars in damages. In this study, the synoptic and dynamical characteristics that led to the formation of the hurricane are investigated. The system was driven by the interaction between the polar jet displacement and the subtropical jet stream. In particular, Sandy was initially formed as a tropical depression system over the Caribbean Sea and the unusually warm sea drove its intensification. The interaction between a rapidly approaching trough from the northwest and the stagnant ridge over the Atlantic Ocean drove Sandy to the northeast coast of United States. To better understand the dynamical characteristics and the mechanisms that triggered Sandy, a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model has been used. Model results indicate that the surface heat fluxes and the moisture advection enhanced the convective available potential energy, increased the low-level convective instability, and finally deepened the hurricane. Moreover, the upper air conditions triggered the low-level frontogenesis and increased the asymmetry of the system which finally affected its trajectory.

  5. The February 21, 1993 tornadoes of East Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fricke, K.E.; Kornegay, F.C. [Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1993-08-11

    A series of tornadoes struck the east Tennessee area on Sunday afternoon, February 21, 1993 around Knoxville, Lenoir City, and Oak Ridge causing millions of dollars worth of damage to both homes and businesses in the area, killing one, injuring a number of persons, and leaving a large area without power for many hours or even days due to damage to the local TVA transmission line network. One tornado touched down in the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation near the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant, continued through the Union Valley business district located just east of the plant, through the adjacent University of Tennessee Arboretum and then continued into the communities of Claxton and Powell. The path length of the tornado was approximately 13 miles. Damage to the Y-12 Plant was minimal, but the Union Valley business district was seriously damaged, including the Fusion Energy Design Center (FEDC) which houses a number of DOE related projects. The preliminary cost estimate of the damage to DOE facilities (both at Y-12 and at the FEDC) was around $520,000. This paper describes the local meteorological data, the tornado that struck near the Y-12 plant, the resulting damage both to the DOE facilities and to the surrounding communities, the plant emergency response and recovery activities, and the current hazard analyses being undertaken at the plant.

  6. Two-phase flows in the formed tornado funnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinkevich, O. A.; Bortsova, A. A.

    2017-10-01

    At present, it is obvious that the problem of the tornado is important not only for our planetЮ to determine the conditions for the formation of a tornado, it is required to take into account a number of hydrodynamic and plasma processes [1 - 6]. Along to prediction of a tornado generation conditions [1 - 3] it is necessary to evaluate the characteristics of its quasi-stationary motion in a formed funnel: the mass of the moving moist air involved in the funnel and the size and form of the funnel. For a complete description of the phenomena, it is necessary to involve numerical calculations. We note that even for numerical calculations using powerful computers, the problem is very difficult because of the need to calculate multiphase turbulent flows with free, self-organizing boundaries [1, 6]. However, “strict” numerical calculations, it is impossible to do without the use of many, often mutually exclusive, models. For example, how to choice an adequate model of turbulence (algebraic, k-ε model, etc.) or the use of additional, often not accepted, hypotheses about certain processes used in calculations (mechanisms on the nature of moisture condensation, etc.). Therefore, along with numerical calculations of such flows, modeling problems that allow an exact solution and allow to determine the most important and observed characteristics of a tornado.

  7. Why do tornados and hailstorms rest on weekends?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Daniel; Bell, Thomas L.

    2011-10-01

    This study shows for the first time statistical evidence that when anthropogenic aerosols over the eastern United States during summertime are at their weekly mid-week peak, tornado and hailstorm activity there is also near its weekly maximum. The weekly cycle in summertime storm activity for 1995-2009 was found to be statistically significant and unlikely to be due to natural variability. It correlates well with previously observed weekly cycles of other measures of storm activity. The pattern of variability supports the hypothesis that air pollution aerosols invigorate deep convective clouds in a moist, unstable atmosphere, to the extent of inducing production of large hailstones and tornados. This is caused by the effect of aerosols on cloud drop nucleation, making cloud drops smaller and hydrometeors larger. According to simulations, the larger ice hydrometeors contribute to more hail. The reduced evaporation from the larger hydrometeors produces weaker cold pools. Simulations have shown that too cold and fast-expanding pools inhibit the formation of tornados. The statistical observations suggest that this might be the mechanism by which the weekly modulation in pollution aerosols is causing the weekly cycle in severe convective storms during summer over the eastern United States. Although we focus here on the role of aerosols, they are not a primary atmospheric driver of tornados and hailstorms but rather modulate them in certain conditions.

  8. The February 21, 1993 tornadoes of East Tennessee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fricke, K.E.; Kornegay, F.C.

    1993-01-01

    A series of tornadoes struck the east Tennessee area on Sunday afternoon, February 21, 1993 around Knoxville, Lenoir City, and Oak Ridge causing millions of dollars worth of damage to both homes and businesses in the area, killing one, injuring a number of persons, and leaving a large area without power for many hours or even days due to damage to the local TVA transmission line network. One tornado touched down in the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation near the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant, continued through the Union Valley business district located just east of the plant, through the adjacent University of Tennessee Arboretum and then continued into the communities of Claxton and Powell. The path length of the tornado was approximately 13 miles. Damage to the Y-12 Plant was minimal, but the Union Valley business district was seriously damaged, including the Fusion Energy Design Center (FEDC) which houses a number of DOE related projects. The preliminary cost estimate of the damage to DOE facilities (both at Y-12 and at the FEDC) was around $520,000. This paper describes the local meteorological data, the tornado that struck near the Y-12 plant, the resulting damage both to the DOE facilities and to the surrounding communities, the plant emergency response and recovery activities, and the current hazard analyses being undertaken at the plant

  9. Millimeter-wave molecular line observations of the Tornado nebula

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sakai, D. [Department of Astronomy, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Oka, T.; Tanaka, K.; Matsumura, S.; Miura, K.; Takekawa, S., E-mail: sakai.daisuke@nao.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Institute of Science and Technology, Keio University, 3-14-1 Hiyoshi, Yokohama, Kanagawa 223-8522 (Japan)

    2014-08-10

    We report the results of millimeter-wave molecular line observations of the Tornado Nebula (G357.7-0.1), which is a bright radio source behind the Galactic center region. A 15' × 15' area was mapped in the J = 1-0 lines of CO, {sup 13}CO, and HCO{sup +} with the Nobeyama Radio Observatory 45 m telescope. The Very Large Array archival data of OH at 1720 MHz were also reanalyzed. We found two molecular clouds with separate velocities, V{sub LSR} = –14 km s{sup –1} and +5 km s{sup –1}. These clouds show rough spatial anti-correlation. Both clouds are associated with OH 1720 MHz emissions in the area overlapping with the Tornado Nebula. The spatial and velocity coincidence indicates violent interaction between the clouds and the Tornado Nebula. Modestly excited gas prefers the position of the Tornado 'head' in the –14 km s{sup –1} cloud, also suggesting the interaction. Virial analysis shows that the +5 km s{sup –1} cloud is more tightly bound by self-gravity than the –14 km s{sup –1} cloud. We propose a formation scenario for the Tornado Nebula; the +5 km s{sup –1} cloud collided into the –14 km s{sup –1} cloud, generating a high-density layer behind the shock front, which activates a putative compact object by Bondi-Hoyle-Lyttleton accretion to eject a pair of bipolar jets.

  10. Pre-Post Tornado Effects on Aggressive Children's Psychological and Behavioral Adjustment Through One-Year Postdisaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lochman, John E; Vernberg, Eric; Powell, Nicole P; Boxmeyer, Caroline L; Jarrett, Matthew; McDonald, Kristina; Qu, Lixin; Hendrickson, Michelle; Kassing, Francesca

    2017-01-01

    Using a risk-resilience framework, this study examined how varying levels of exposure to a natural disaster (EF-4 tornado) and children's characteristics (sex; anxiety) influenced the behavioral and psychological adjustment of children who shared a common risk factor predisaster (elevated aggression) prior to exposure through 1-year postdisaster. Participants included 360 children in Grades 4-6 (65% male; 78% African American) and their parents from predominantly low-income households who were already participating in a longitudinal study of indicated prevention effects for externalizing outcomes when the tornado occurred in 2011. Fourth-grade children who were screened for overt aggressive behavior were recruited in 3 annual cohorts (120 per year, beginning in 2009). Parent-rated aggression and internalizing problems were assessed prior to the tornado (Wave 1), within a half-year after the tornado (Wave 2), and at a 1-year follow-up (Wave 3). Children and parents rated their exposure to aspects of tornado-related traumatic experiences at Wave 3. Children displayed less reduction on aggression and internalizing problems if the children had experienced distress after the tornado or fears for their life, in combination with their pre-tornado level of anxiety. Higher levels of children's and parents' exposure to the tornado interacted with children's lower baseline child anxiety to predict less reduction in aggression and internalizing problems 1 year after the tornado. Higher levels of disaster exposure negatively affected at-risk children's level of improvement in aggression and internalizing problems, when life threat (parent- and child-reported) and child-reported distress after the tornado were moderated by baseline anxiety.

  11. Tornadoes and Other Big Winds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markle, Sandra

    1983-01-01

    Information is presented for teaching about the formation of tornadoes and their effects. Ideas for relevant class discussion topics, writing assignments, and experiments to illustrate how temperature and air pressure changes involved in the storms work are also given. (PP)

  12. Supercell and tornado roles

    Science.gov (United States)

    as a consequence of the up- and down-motions. This also was considered a central idea by Lemon and herein. The definition of a tornado has been problematic (as discussed at some length here) but the basic definition of a vortex is problematic (Lugt 1979). The source of difficulty with defining a vortex is the

  13. Exploring the Experiences of Special Educators Following the Joplin Tornado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Allyson

    2013-01-01

    On May 22, 2011, an EF5 tornado ripped through Joplin, MO, leaving many residents without homes and destroying or damaging several school buildings. The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore how special education teachers responded to the needs of their students with disabilities following the Joplin tornado. Purposeful sampling was…

  14. Hurricane Rita Track Radar Image with Topographic Overlay

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Animation About the animation: This simulated view of the potential effects of storm surge flooding on Galveston and portions of south Houston was generated with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Although it is protected by a 17-foot sea wall against storm surges, flooding due to storm surges caused by major hurricanes remains a concern. The animation shows regions that, if unprotected, would be inundated with water. The animation depicts flooding in one-meter increments. About the image: The Gulf Coast from the Mississippi Delta through the Texas coast is shown in this satellite image from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) overlain with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and the predicted storm track for Hurricane Rita. The prediction from the National Weather Service was published Sept. 22 at 4 p.m. Central Time, and shows the expected track center in black with the lighter shaded area indicating the range of potential tracks the storm could take. Low-lying terrain along the coast has been highlighted using the SRTM elevation data, with areas within 15 feet of sea level shown in red, and within 30 feet in yellow. These areas are more at risk for flooding and the destructive effects of storm surge and high waves. Data used in this image were acquired by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour, launched on Feb. 11, 2000. SRTM used the same radar instrument that comprised the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) that flew twice on the Space Shuttle Endeavour in 1994. SRTM was designed to collect 3-D measurements of the Earth's surface. To collect the 3-D data, engineers added a 60-meter (approximately 200-foot) mast, installed additional C-band and X-band antennas, and improved tracking and navigation devices. The mission is a cooperative project between NASA, the National Geospatial

  15. Residential Tornado Safe Rooms from Commodity Wood Products: Wall Development and Impact Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert H. Falk; James J. Bridwell; John C. Hermanson

    2015-01-01

    In the United States, tornadoes cause significant damage and result in many injuries and deaths. Although the development and use of tornado safe rooms and shelters have helped reduce the human toll associated with these events, the cost of these structures is often too high for many that could benefit from their use. The development of a residential tornado safe room...

  16. Near-ground tornado-like vortex structure resolved by particle image velocimetry (PIV)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Wei [Iowa State University, Aerospace Engineering Department, Ames, IA (United States); University of Minnesota, Saint Anthony Falls Laboratory, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Sarkar, Partha P. [Iowa State University, Aerospace Engineering Department, Ames, IA (United States)

    2012-02-15

    The near-ground flow structure of tornadoes is of utmost interest because it determines how and to what extent civil structures could get damaged in tornado events. We simulated tornado-like vortex flow at the swirl ratios of S = 0.03-0.3 (vane angle {theta}{sub v} = 15 -60 ), using a laboratory tornado simulator and investigated the near-ground-vortex structure by particle imaging velocimetry. Complicated near-ground flow was measured in two orthogonal views: horizontal planes at various elevations (z = 11, 26 and 53 mm above the ground) and the meridian plane. We observed two distinct vortex structures: a single-celled vortex at the lowest swirl ratio (S = 0.03, {theta}{sub v} = 15 ) and multiple suction vortices rotating around the primary vortex (two-celled vortex) at higher swirl ratios (S = 0.1-0.3, {theta}{sub v} = 30 -60 ). We quantified the effects of vortex wandering on the mean flow and found that vortex wandering was important and should be taken into account in the low swirl ratio case. The tangential velocity, as the dominant velocity component, has the peak value about three times that of the maximum radial velocity regardless of the swirl ratio. The maximum velocity variance is about twice at the high swirl ratio ({theta}{sub v} = 45 ) that at the low swirl ratio ({theta}{sub v} = 15 ), which is contributed significantly by the multiple small-scale secondary vortices. Here, the results show that not only the intensified mean flow but greatly enhanced turbulence occurs near the surface in the tornado-like vortex flow. The intensified mean flow and enhanced turbulence at the ground level, correlated with the ground-vortex interaction, may cause dramatic damage of the civil structures in tornadoes. This work provides detailed characterization of the tornado-like vortex structure, which has not been fully revealed in previous field studies and laboratory simulations. It would be helpful in improving the understanding of the interaction between the

  17. Conceptions of Tornado Wind Speed and Land Surface Interactions among Undergraduate Students in Nebraska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Den Broeke, Matthew S.; Arthurs, Leilani

    2015-01-01

    To ascertain novice conceptions of tornado wind speed and the influence of surface characteristics on tornado occurrence, 613 undergraduate students enrolled in introductory science courses at a large state university in Nebraska were surveyed. Our findings show that students lack understanding of the fundamental concepts that (1) tornadoes are…

  18. Geotechnical Impacts of Hurricane Harvey Along the Texas, USA Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smallegan, S. M.; Stark, N.; Jafari, N.; Ravichandran, N.; Shafii, I.; Bassal, P.; Figlus, J.

    2017-12-01

    As part of the NSF-funded Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance (GEER) Association response to Hurricane Harvey, a team of engineers and scientists mobilized to the coastal cities of Texas, USA from 1 to 5 September 2017. Damage to coastal and riverine structures due to erosion by storm surge, waves, and coastal and riverine flooding was assessed in a wide coastal zone between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Making initial landfall near Rockport, Texas on 26 August 2017, Hurricane Harvey was classified as a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale with wind speeds exceeding 130 mph and an atmospheric pressure of 938 mbar. The storm stalled over the Houston area, pouring 40 inches of rain on an area encompassing more than 3,000 square miles. Hurricane Harvey, which remained a named storm for 117 hours after initial landfall, slowly moved east into the Gulf of Mexico and made final landfall near Cameron, Louisiana on 30 August. The GEER team surveyed sixteen main sites, extending from Mustang Island in the southwest to Galveston in the northeast and as far inland as Rosenburg. In Port Aransas, beach erosion and undercutting along a beach access road near Aransas Pass were observed. Due to several tide gauge failures in this area, the nearest NOAA tide gauge (#8775870 near Corpus Christi) was used to estimate water levels of 1.35 m, approximately 1.0 m above the predicted tide. In Holiday Beach, anchored retaining walls were inundated, causing backside scour along the entire length and exposing the sheetpile wall anchors. Along the Colorado River at the Highway 35 bridge near Bay City, active riverbank failure was observed and a sheet pile wall was found collapsed. Significant sediment deposits lined the vegetated riverbanks. A USGS stream gage recorded gage heights greater than 45 ft, exceeding the flood stage of 44 ft. Fronting a rubblemound seawall in Surfside Beach, a runnel and ridge formation was observed. Nearby at San Luis Pass, infilled scour

  19. The weight of a storm: what observations of Earth surface deformation can tell us about Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borsa, A. A.; Mencin, D.; van Dam, T. M.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to impact the USA in over a decade, making landfall southwest of Houston, TX on August 26, 2017. Although Harvey was downgraded to a tropical storm shortly after landfall, it dropped a record amount of rain and was responsible for epic flooding across much of southeast Texas. While precipitation from a large storm like Harvey can be estimated from in-situ rain gages and Doppler radar, the accompanying surface water changes that lead to flooding are imperfectly observed due to the limited coverage of existing stream and lake level gages and because floodwaters inundate areas that are typically unmonitored. Earth's response to changes in surface loading provides an opportunity to observe the local hydrological response to Hurricane Harvey, specifically the dramatic changes in water storage coincident with and following the storm. Continuous GPS stations in southeastern Texas observed an average drop in land surface elevations of 1.8 cm following Harvey's landfall, followed by a gradual recovery to pre-storm levels over the following month. We interpret this surface motion as Earth's elastic response to the weight of cumulative rainfall during the storm, followed by rebound as that weight was removed by runoff and evapotranspiration (ET). Using observations of surface displacements from GPS stations in the HoustonNET and Plate Boundary Observatory networks, we model the daily water storage changes across Texas and Louisiana associated with Harvey. Because Harvey's barometric pressure low caused surface uplift at the cm level which temporarily obscured the subsidence signal due to precipitation, we model and remove the effect of atmospheric loading from the GPS data prior to our analysis. We also consider the effect on GPS position time series of non-tidal ocean loading due to the hurricane storm surge, which at the coast was an order of magnitude larger than loads due to precipitation alone. Finally, we use our results to

  20. HURRICANE AND SEVERE STORM SENTINEL (HS3) HURRICANE IMAGING RADIOMETER (HIRAD) V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) was collected by the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), which was a multi-band...

  1. Tornado-like transport in a magnetized plasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulos, Matthew; van Compernolle, Bart; Morales, George

    2017-10-01

    Recent heat transport experiments conducted in the LAPD device at UCLA in which avalanche events have been previously documented have also lead to the identification of a new tornado-like transport phenomenon. These tornados occur much earlier than the avalanches events, essentially in the interval following the application of the bias voltage that causes the injection of an electron beam from a ring-shaped LaB6 cathode into the afterglow of a cold, magnetized plasma. The tornados exhibit a low-frequency (4 kHz) (much lower than drift-waves), spiraling, global eigenmode whose transient behavior is responsible for significant radial transport well outside the heated region. Detailed experimental observations are compared with a Braginskii transport code that includes the effects of ExB convection induced by the spiraling global eigenmode. New insights are gained into the necessary modifications of classical transport to accurately simulate the spiraling effects and the possible interaction with avalanches. This work is supported by the NSF/DOE partnership in basic plasma science and engineering, Grant Number 1619505, and is performed at the Basic Plasma Science Facility, sponsored jointly by DOE and NSF. Sponsored by DOE/NSF at BaPSF and NSF 1619505.

  2. Community emergency department utilization following a natural disaster (the Goderich Tornado).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appavoo, Samuel D; Khemlin, Alexander; Appavoo, Donna M; Flynn, Candi J

    2016-01-01

    On 21 August 2011 an F3 tornado hit the Canadian town of Goderich, Ontario, leaving 40 people injured and one dead. Specific medium-term changes in utilization of health care following a disaster have not been analyzed in medical literature. Documenting the emergency department utilization through this subacute period would be helpful to enable institutions and healthcare practitioners to be better prepared for future events. A medical chart review was conducted at the Alexandra Marine and General Hospital in Goderich. All emergency department visits made during the 30 days after the Tornado in 2011 (intervention group), 30 days prior to the tornado in 2011 (primary control group), and during the similar calendar period of 30 days after the tornado in 2010 (seasonal control group) were reviewed. Medical diagnoses of all patients who presented at the emergency department were collected and compared. Fewer people presented to the emergency department following the tornado than during the control periods, and those who did were significantly older than those who presented in the control periods (pptornado in a rural Ontario community. This information serves to inform the medical community and other hospitals how to increase their level of preparedness should a comparable disaster occur again in the future.

  3. Prominence and tornado dynamics observed with IRIS and THEMIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmieder, Brigitte; Levens, Peter; Labrosse, Nicolas; Mein, Pierre; Lopez Ariste, Arturo; Zapior, Maciek

    2017-08-01

    Several prominences were observed during campaigns in September 2013 and July 2014 with the IRIS spectrometer and the vector magnetograph THEMIS (Tenerife). SDO/AIA and IRIS provided images and spectra of prominences and tornadoes corresponding to different physical conditions of the transition region between the cool plasma and the corona. The vector magnetic field was derived from THEMIS observations by using the He D3 depolarisation due to the magnetic field. The inversion code (PCA) takes into account the Hanle and Zeeman effects and allows us to compute the strength and the inclination of the magnetic field which is shown to be mostly horizontal in prominences as well as in tornadoes. Movies from SDO/AIA in 304 A and Hinode/SOT in Ca II show the highly dynamic nature of the fine structures. From spectra in Mg II and Si IV lines provided by IRIS and H-alpha observed by the Multi-channel Subtractive Double Pass (MSDP) spectrograph in the Meudon Solar Tower we derived the Doppler shifts of the fine structures and reconstructed the 3D structure of tornadoes. We conclude that the apparent rotation of AIA tornadoes is due to large-scale quasi-periodic oscillations of the plasma along more or less horizontal magnetic structures.

  4. Finite Element Analysis of Saferooms Subjected to Tornado Impact Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parfilko, Y.; Amaral de Arruda, F.; Varela, B.

    2017-10-01

    A Tornado is one of the most dreadful and unpredictable events in nature. Unfortunately, weather and geographic conditions make a large portion of the United States prone to this phenomenon. Tornado saferooms are monolithic reinforced concrete protective structures engineered to guard against these natural disasters. Saferooms must withstand impacts and wind loads from EF-5 tornadoes - where the wind speed reaches up to 150 m/s (300 mph) and airborne projectiles can reach up to 50 m/s (100 mph). The objective of this work is to evaluate the performance of a saferoom under impact from tornado-generated debris and tornado-dragged vehicles. Numerical simulations were performed to model the impact problem using explicit dynamics and energy methods. Finite element models of the saferoom, windborne debris, and vehicle models were studied using the LS-DYNA software. RHT concrete material was used to model the saferoom and vehicle models from NCAC were used to characterize damage from impacts at various speeds. Simulation results indicate good performance of the saferoom structure at vehicle impact speeds up to 25 meters per second. Damage is more significant and increases nonlinearly starting at impact velocities of 35 m/s (78 mph). Results of this study give valuable insight into the dynamic response of saferooms subjected to projectile impacts, and provide design considerations for civilian protective structures. Further work is being done to validate the models with experimental measurements.

  5. Characteristics of Tornado-Like Vortices Simulated in a Large-Scale Ward-Type Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zhuo; Feng, Changda; Wu, Liang; Zuo, Delong; James, Darryl L.

    2018-02-01

    Tornado-like vortices are simulated in a large-scale Ward-type simulator to further advance the understanding of such flows, and to facilitate future studies of tornado wind loading on structures. Measurements of the velocity fields near the simulator floor and the resulting floor surface pressures are interpreted to reveal the mean and fluctuating characteristics of the flow as well as the characteristics of the static-pressure deficit. We focus on the manner in which the swirl ratio and the radial Reynolds number affect these characteristics. The transition of the tornado-like flow from a single-celled vortex to a dual-celled vortex with increasing swirl ratio and the impact of this transition on the flow field and the surface-pressure deficit are closely examined. The mean characteristics of the surface-pressure deficit caused by tornado-like vortices simulated at a number of swirl ratios compare well with the corresponding characteristics recorded during full-scale tornadoes.

  6. Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

  7. An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1-Decision Support System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Rachel A; Nozick, Linda K; Wachtendorf, Tricia; Blanton, Brian; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randall L; DeYoung, Sarah; Dresback, Kendra M; Yi, Wenqi; Yang, Kun; Leonardo, Nicholas

    2018-03-30

    This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Recent Atlantic Hurricanes, Pacific Super Typhoons, and Tropical Storm Awareness in Underdeveloped Island and Coastal Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plondke, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. in 12 years. The next tropical storm in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was Hurricane Irma, a category 5 storm and the strongest storm to strike the U.S. mainland since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. These two storms were the third and fourth in a sequence of 10 consecutive storms to reach hurricane status in this season that ranks at least seventh among the most active seasons as measured by the Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. Assessment of damage from Harvey may prove it to be the costliest storm in U.S. history, approaching $190 billion. Irma was the first category 5 hurricane to hit the Leeward Islands, devastating island environments including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Barbuda, Saint Barthelemy, and Anguilla with sustained winds reaching at times 185 mph. Together with the two super typhoons of the 2017 Pacific season, Noru and Lan, the two Atlantic hurricanes rank among the strongest, longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record. How many more billions of dollars will be expended in recovery and reconstruction efforts following future mega-disasters comparable to those of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma? Particularly on Caribbean and tropical Pacific islands with specialized and underdeveloped economies, aging and substandard infrastructure often cannot even partially mitigate against the impacts of major hurricanes. The most frequently used measurements of storm impact are insufficient to assess the economic impact. Analysis of the storm tracks and periods of greatest storm intensity of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and Super Typhoons Lan and Noru, in spatial relationship with island and coastal administrative regions, shows that rainfall totals, flooded area estimates, and property/infrastructure damage dollar estimates are all quantitative indicators of storm impact, but do not measure the costs that result from lack of storm preparedness and education of residents

  9. Windfield and trajectory models for tornado-propelled objects. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redmann, G.H.; Radbill, J.R.; Marte, J.E.; Dergarabedian, P.; Fendell, F.E.

    1983-03-01

    This is the final report of a three-phased research project to develop a six-degree-of-freedom mathematical model to predict the trajectories of tornado-propelled objects. The model is based on the meteorological, aerodynamic, and dynamic processes that govern the trajectories of missiles in a tornadic windfield. The aerodynamic coefficients for the postulated missiles were obtained from full-scale wind tunnel tests on a 12-inch pipe and car and from drop tests. Rocket sled tests were run whereby the 12-inch pipe and car were injected into a worst-case tornado windfield in order to verify the trajectory model. To simplify and facilitate the use of the trajectory model for design applications without having to run the computer program, this report gives the trajectory data for NRC-postulated missiles in tables based on given variables of initial conditions of injection and tornado windfield. Complete descriptions of the tornado windfield and trajectory models are presented. The trajectory model computer program is also included for those desiring to perform trajectory or sensitivity analyses beyond those included in the report or for those wishing to examine other missiles and use other variables

  10. Meteorological environment of a tornado outbreak in Southern Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. C. Oprea

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available On 7 May 2005, a squall line with an embedded bow echo formed over Southern Romania causing severe wind damage. The length of the wind damage was around 150 km. Three tornadoes have been reported, two of them being recorded by video camera. One of the tornadoes occurred in Buftea (near Bucharest, the second in Ciobanu village (near Medgidia radar site and the third in Movilita village, 40 km to the northeast of Bucharest. The site surveys confirmed wind damage associated with these tornadoes. Based on damage, the Movilita village tornado was classified as an F1 type on the Fujita scale, and the Buftea and Ciobanu village tornadoes were classified as F0. Large scale forcing was provided by a vigorous upper level trough. The squall line developed in the warm sector of a low, ahead of the cold front. The Bucharest EEC-DWSR-2500C Doppler velocity depicted cyclonically rotational structures associated with the left end of the bow echo. In two hours this squall line traversed the southern part of the country. The northern end of the line preserved the bowed structures and high reflectivity gradient in front of them. The dry air associated with the descending rear inflow jet was evident as rear inflow notches in the reflectivity field of the Bucharest C-band radar and the Medgidia S-band WSR-98 D radar. The synoptic and mesoscale environment associated with 7 May 2005 bow echo had many similarities to the "dynamic" pattern described by John and Hirt (1987. Herein are analyzed the combined effects of synoptic and mesoscale circulations, together with the data provided by C-band EEC-DWSR-2500C and S-band WSR-98D radars, and the ECMWF and ALADIN model output data. Some operational aspects of the warning process are also discussed.

  11. Leveraging Social Media Data to Understand Disaster Resilience: A Case Study of Hurricane Isaac

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, L.; Lam, N.; Cai, H.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal communities are facing multiple threats from natural hazards, such as hurricanes, flooding, and storm surge, and show uneven response and recovery behaviors. To build a sustainable coast, it is critical to understand how coastal hazards affect humans and how to enhance disaster resilience. However, understanding community resilience remains challenging, due to the lack of real-time data describing community's response and recovery behaviors during disasters. Public discussion through social media platforms provides an opportunity to understand these behaviors by categorizing real-time social media data into three main phases of emergency management - preparedness, response, and recovery. This study analyzes the spatial-temporal patterns of Twitter use and content during Hurricane Isaac, which struck coastal Louisiana on August 29, 2012. The study area includes counties affected by Hurricane Isaac in Louisiana and Mississippi. The objectives are three-fold. First, we will compute a set of Twitter indices to quantify the Twitter activities during Hurricane Issac and the results will be compared with those of Hurricane Sandy to gain a better understanding of human response in extreme events. Second, county-level disaster resilience in the affected region will be computed and evaluated using the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) model. Third, we will examine the relationship between the geographical and social disparities in Twitter use and the disparities in disaster resilience and evaluate the role of Twitter use in disaster resilience. Knowledge gained from this study could provide valuable insights into strategies for utilizing social media data to increase resilience to disasters.

  12. What Happened to Our Environment and Mental Health as a Result of Hurricane Sandy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shao; Lu, Yi; Justino, John; Dong, Guanghui; Lauper, Ursula

    2016-06-01

    This study describes findings of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on environmental factors including power outages, air quality, water quality, and weather factors and how these affected mental health during the hurricane. An ecological study was conducted at the county level to describe changes in environmental factors-especially power outages-and their relationships to emergency department (ED) visits for mental health problems by use of a Poisson regression model. We found that many environmental hazards occurred as co-exposures during Hurricane Sandy in addition to flooding. Mental health ED visits corresponded with the peak of maximum daily power blackouts, with a 3-day lag, and were positively associated with power blackouts in Bronx (prevalence ratio [PR]: 8.82, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.27-61.42) and Queens (PR: 2.47, 95% CI: 1.05-5.82) counties. A possible dose-response relationship was found between the quantile of maximum blackout percentage and the risk of mental health in the Bronx. We found that multiple co-environmental hazards occurred during Hurricane Sandy, especially power blackouts that mediated this disaster's impacts. The effects of power outage on mental health had large geographic variations and were substantial, especially in communities with low sociodemographic status. These findings may provide new insights for future disaster response and preparedness efforts. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:314-319).

  13. Number of warning information sources and decision making during tornadoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jianjun; Cong, Zhen; Liang, Daan

    2015-03-01

    Taking proper protective action upon receiving tornado warnings is critical to reducing casualties. With more warning information sources becoming available, how the number of such information sources affects decision making should be quantitatively investigated. To examine how the number of warning information sources affected individuals' decisions to take protective action during tornadoes. A telephone survey using random sampling was conducted in 2012 with residents in Tuscaloosa AL and Joplin MO, resulting in a working sample of 782 respondents. Both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (Enhanced Fujita Scale [EF]4 and EF5) in 2011. The analysis was conducted in 2013. Logistic regression analysis showed that relative to having only one warning information source, having two and three or more warning information sources significantly increased the odds of taking protective action in Joplin but not in Tuscaloosa; having three or more sources had a significantly stronger effect on taking protective action in Joplin than in Tuscaloosa. Having an emergency preparation plan in both cities and being white in Tuscaloosa significantly increased the odds of taking protective action, whereas being divorced in Joplin reduced these odds. Receiving warnings from more warning information sources might be more beneficial in places with less previous exposure to tornadoes and for populations with lower awareness of a potential tornado and higher probability of receiving no warnings. Emergency management agencies and public health officials should give priority to these places and populations when formulating disaster mitigation decisions and policies. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Chaotic Financial Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakimowicz, Aleksander

    In contemporary economies classic business cycles are increasingly changing their form undergoing a transformation into phenomena that have been nicknamed financial tornados. A generalization of the Lotka-Volterra model can be used to describe these fast-changing processes. Economically speaking, the most useful are such dynamical systems in which wormholes appear. This article features application of a model with one population of prey and two populations of predators in order to explain the global financial crisis and the consequent phenomena.

  15. Vulnerability of Coastal Communities from Storm Surge and Flood Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bathi, Jejal Reddy; Das, Himangshu S.

    2016-01-01

    Disasters in the form of coastal storms and hurricanes can be very destructive. Preparing for anticipated effects of such disasters can help reduce the public health and economic burden. Identifying vulnerable population groups can help prioritize resources for the most needed communities. This paper presents a quantitative framework for vulnerability measurement that incorporates both socioeconomic and flood inundation vulnerability. The approach is demonstrated for three coastal communities in Mississippi with census tracts being the study unit. The vulnerability results are illustrated as thematic maps for easy usage by planners and emergency responders to assist in prioritizing their actions to vulnerable populations during storm surge and flood disasters. PMID:26907313

  16. Pre-Post Tornado Effects on Aggressive Children’s Psychological and Behavioral Adjustment Through One-Year Postdisaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lochman, John E.; Vernberg, Eric; Powell, Nicole P.; Boxmeyer, Caroline L.; Jarrett, Matthew; McDonald, Kristina; Qu, Lixin; Hendrickson, Michelle; Kassing, Francesca

    2017-01-01

    Objective Using a risk-resilience framework, this study examined how varying levels of exposure to a natural disaster (EF-4 tornado) and children’s characteristics (sex; anxiety) influenced the behavioral and psychological adjustment of children who shared a common risk factor predisaster (elevated aggression) prior to exposure through one-year postdisaster. Method Participants included 360 children in 4th–6th grades (65% male; 78% African American) and their parents from predominantly low-income households who were already participating in a longitudinal study of indicated prevention effects for externalizing outcomes when the tornado occurred in 2011. Fourth-grade children who were screened for overt aggressive behavior were recruited in three annual cohorts (120 per year, beginning in 2009). Parent-rated aggression and internalizing problems were assessed prior to the tornado (Wave 1), within a half-year after the tornado (Wave 2), and at a one-year follow-up (Wave 3). Children and parents rated their exposure to aspects of tornado-related traumatic experiences at Wave 3. Results Children displayed less reduction on aggression and internalizing problems if the children had experienced distress after the tornado or fears for their life, in combination with their pre-tornado level of anxiety. Higher levels of children’s and parents’ exposure to the tornado interacted with children’s lower baseline child anxiety to predict less reduction in aggression and internalizing problems one year after the tornado. Conclusion Higher levels of disaster exposure negatively affected at-risk children’s level of improvement in aggression and internalizing problems, when life threat (parent- and child-reported) and child-reported distress after the tornado were moderated by baseline anxiety. PMID:27841691

  17. Comparing residential contamination in a Houston environmental justice neighborhood before and after Hurricane Harvey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horney, Jennifer A; Casillas, Gaston A; Baker, Erin; Stone, Kahler W; Kirsch, Katie R; Camargo, Krisa; Wade, Terry L; McDonald, Thomas J

    2018-01-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are complex environmental toxicants. Exposure to them has been linked to adverse health outcomes including cancer, as well as diseases of the skin, liver, and immune system. Based on an ongoing community engagement partnership with stakeholder groups and residents, we conducted a small longitudinal study to assess domestic exposure to PAHs among residents of Manchester, an environmental justice neighborhood located in the East End of Houston, TX. In December, 2016, we used fiber wipes to collect samples of household dust from 25 homes in Manchester. Following Hurricane Harvey, in September 2017, we revisited 24 of the 25 homes to collect soil samples from the front yards of the same homes. Wipes and soil were analyzed for the presence of PAHs using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) methods. Principal component analysis plots, heatmaps, and PAH ratios were used to compare pre- and post-Hurricane Harvey samples. While direct comparison is not possible, we present three methods for comparing PAHs found in pre-hurricane fiber wipes and post-hurricane soil samples. The methods demonstrate that the PAHs found before and after Hurricane Harvey are likely from similar sources and that those sources are most likely to be associated with combustion. We also found evidence of redistribution of PAHs due to extreme flooding associated with Hurricane Harvey. Residents of the Manchester neighborhood of Houston, TX, are exposed to a range of PAHs in household dust and outdoor soil. While it was not possible to compare directly, we were able to use several methods to assess detected concentrations, changes in site-specific PAH allocations, and PAH origination. Additional research is needed to identify specific sources of domestic PAH exposure in these communities and continued work involving community members and policy makers should aim to develop interventions to reduce domestic exposure to and prevent negative health outcomes

  18. Assessing Hurricane Katrina Damage to the Mississippi Gulf Coast Using IKONOS Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; McKellip, Rodney

    2006-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina hit southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast as a Category 3 hurricane with storm surges as high as 9 m. Katrina devastated several coastal towns by destroying or severely damaging hundreds of homes. Several Federal agencies are assessing storm impacts and assisting recovery using high-spatial-resolution remotely sensed data from satellite and airborne platforms. High-quality IKONOS satellite imagery was collected on September 2, 2005, over southwestern Mississippi. Pan-sharpened IKONOS multispectral data and ERDAS IMAGINE software were used to classify post-storm land cover for coastal Hancock and Harrison Counties. This classification included a storm debris category of interest to FEMA for disaster mitigation. The classification resulted from combining traditional unsupervised and supervised classification techniques. Higher spatial resolution aerial and handheld photography were used as reference data. Results suggest that traditional classification techniques and IKONOS data can map wood-dominated storm debris in open areas if relevant training areas are used to develop the unsupervised classification signatures. IKONOS data also enabled other hurricane damage assessment, such as flood-deposited mud on lawns and vegetation foliage loss from the storm. IKONOS data has also aided regional Katrina vegetation damage surveys from multidate Land Remote Sensing Satellite and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data.

  19. Development of a Probabilistic Tornado Wind Hazard Model for the Continental United States Volume I: Main Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boissonnade, A; Hossain, Q; Kimball, J

    2000-01-01

    Since the mid-l980's, assessment of the wind and tornado risks at the Department of Energy (DOE) high and moderate hazard facilities has been based on the straight wind/tornado hazard curves given in UCRL-53526 (Coats, 1985). These curves were developed using a methodology that utilized a model, developed by McDonald, for severe winds at sub-tornado wind speeds and a separate model, developed by Fujita, for tornado wind speeds. For DOE sites not covered in UCRL-53526, wind and tornado hazard assessments are based on the criteria outlined in DOE-STD-1023-95 (DOE, 1996), utilizing the methodology in UCRL-53526; Subsequent to the publication of UCRL53526, in a study sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the Pacific Northwest Laboratory developed tornado wind hazard curves for the contiguous United States, NUREG/CR-4461 (Ramsdell, 1986). Because of the different modeling assumptions and underlying data used to develop the tornado wind information, the wind speeds at specified exceedance levels, at a given location, based on the methodology in UCRL-53526, are different than those based on the methodology in NUREG/CR-4461. In 1997, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) was funded by the DOE to review the current methodologies for characterizing tornado wind hazards and to develop a state-of-the-art wind/tornado characterization methodology based on probabilistic hazard assessment techniques and current historical wind data. This report describes the process of developing the methodology and the database of relevant tornado information needed to implement the methodology. It also presents the tornado wind hazard curves obtained from the application of the method to DOE sites throughout the contiguous United States

  20. A Database of Tornado Events as Perceived by the USArray Transportable Array Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tytell, J. E.; Vernon, F.; Reyes, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    Over the course of the deployment of Earthscope's USArray Transportable Array (TA) network there have numerous tornado events that have occurred within the changing footprint of its network. The Array Network Facility based in San Diego, California, has compiled a database of these tornado events based on data provided by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The SPC data itself consists of parameters such as start-end point track data for each event, maximum EF intensities, and maximum track widths. Our database is Antelope driven and combines these data from the SPC with detailed station information from the TA network. We are now able to list all available TA stations during any specific tornado event date and also provide a single calculated "nearest" TA station per individual tornado event. We aim to provide this database as a starting resource for those with an interest in investigating tornado signatures within surface pressure and seismic response data. On a larger scale, the database may be of particular interest to the infrasound research community

  1. Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the

  2. The Effect of Coastal Development on Storm Surge Flooding in Biscayne Bay, Florida, USA (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K.; Liu, H.; Li, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Barrier islands and associated bays along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are a favorite place for both living and visiting. Many of them are vulnerable to storm surge flooding because of low elevations and constantly being subjected to the impacts of storms. The population increase and urban development along the barrier coast have altered the shoreline configuration, resulting in a dramatic change in the coastal flooding pattern in some areas. Here we present such a case based on numerical simulations of storm surge flooding caused by the1926 hurricane in the densely populated area surrounding Biscayne Bay in Miami, Florida. The construction of harbor and navigation channels, and the development of real estate and the roads connecting islands along Biscayne Bay have changed the geometry of Biscayne Bay since 1910s. Storm surge simulations show that the Port of Miami and Dodge Island constructed by human after 1950 play an important role in changing storm surge inundation pattern along Biscayne Bay. Dodge Island enhances storm surge and increases inundation in the area south of the island, especially at the mouth of Miami River (Downtown of Miami), and reduces storm surge flooding in the area north of the island, especially in Miami Beach. If the Hurricane Miami of 1926 happened today, the flooding area would be reduced by 55% and 20% in the Miami Beach and North Miami areas, respectively. Consequently, it would prevent 400 million of property and 10 thousand people from surge flooding according to 2010 U.S census and 2007 property tax data. Meanwhile, storm water would penetrate further inland south of Dodge Island and increase the flooding area by 25% in the Miami River and Downtown Miami areas. As a result, 200 million of property and five thousand people would be impacted by storm surge.

  3. Plasma-liquid system with reverse vortex flow of 'tornado' type (TORNADO-LE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nedybalyuk, O.A.; Chernyak, V.Ya.; Olszewski, S.V.

    2010-01-01

    The results of experimental investigations of the plasma in plasma-liquid system with reverse vortex flow of 'tornado' type are presented. Volt-ampere characteristic of discharge in the current range from 200 to 400 mA were measured. Emission spectra of plasma in range from 200 to 1100 nm were measured. Excitation temperatures (electronic T e * , vibrational T v * and rotational T r * ) were obtained. Emission spectra of hydroxyl OH were calculated.

  4. Hurricane Gustav Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Gustav poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Gustav having made landfall along the Louisiana coastline. Poster size is 36"x27"

  5. Social response to technological disaster: the accident at Three Mile Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, B.B.

    1984-01-01

    Until recently the sociological study of man environment relations under extreme circumstances has been restricted to natural hazards (e.g., floods, hurricanes, tornadoes). Technological disasters are becoming more commonplace (e.g., Times Beach, MO, Love Canal, TMI-2) and are growing as potential sources of impact upon human populations. However, theory regarding the social impact of such disasters has not been developed. While research on natural disasters is in part applicable to technological disasters, theory adapted from environmental sociology and psychology are also utilized to develop a theory of social response to extreme environmental events produced by technology. Hypotheses are developed in the form of an empirically testable model based on the literature reviewed

  6. Prioritization of natural phenomena hazards evaluations for CHG facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GRAVES, C.E.

    2001-01-01

    Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature that pose a threat or danger to workers, the public or to the environment by potential damage to structures, systems and components (SSCs). Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado), flood, volcanic eruption, lightning strike, or extreme cold or heat are examples of NPH. This document outlines the method used to prioritize buildings for inspection following an NPH event and contains the priority list for CH2M HILL Hanford Group, Inc. (CHG) buildings. Once an NPH event occurs and the Hanford Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated, this document will be used by the EOC to assign building inspections for the trained evaluators, barring any information from the field

  7. Prioritization of natural phenomena hazards evaluations for CHG facilities

    CERN Document Server

    Graves, C E

    2001-01-01

    Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature that pose a threat or danger to workers, the public or to the environment by potential damage to structures, systems and components (SSCs). Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado), flood, volcanic eruption, lightning strike, or extreme cold or heat are examples of NPH. This document outlines the method used to prioritize buildings for inspection following an NPH event and contains the priority list for CH2M HILL Hanford Group, Inc. (CHG) buildings. Once an NPH event occurs and the Hanford Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated, this document will be used by the EOC to assign building inspections for the trained evaluators, barring any information from the field.

  8. The effect of proximity to hurricanes Katrina and Rita on subsequent hurricane outlook and optimistic bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbo, Craig; Lueck, Michelle; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori

    2011-12-01

    This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was hypothesized that hurricane outlook and optimistic bias for hurricane risk would be associated positively with distance from the Katrina-Rita landfall (more optimism at greater distance), controlling for historically based hurricane risk and county population density, demographics, individual hurricane experience, and dispositional optimism. Data were collected in January 2006 through a mail survey sent to 1,375 households in 41 counties on the coast (n = 824, 60% response). The analysis used hierarchal regression to test hypotheses. Hurricane history and population density had no effect on outlook; individuals who were male, older, and with higher household incomes were associated with lower risk perception; individual hurricane experience and personal impacts from Katrina and Rita predicted greater risk perception; greater dispositional optimism predicted more optimistic outlook; distance had a small effect but predicted less optimistic outlook at greater distance (model R(2) = 0.21). The model for optimistic bias had fewer effects: age and community tenure were significant; dispositional optimism had a positive effect on optimistic bias; distance variables were not significant (model R(2) = 0.05). The study shows that an existing measure of hurricane outlook has utility, hurricane outlook appears to be a unique concept from hurricane optimistic bias, and proximity has at most small effects. Future extension of this research will include improved conceptualization and measurement of hurricane risk perception and will bring to focus several concepts involving risk communication. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Surrogate modeling of joint flood risk across coastal watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bass, Benjamin; Bedient, Philip

    2018-03-01

    This study discusses the development and performance of a rapid prediction system capable of representing the joint rainfall-runoff and storm surge flood response of tropical cyclones (TCs) for probabilistic risk analysis. Due to the computational demand required for accurately representing storm surge with the high-fidelity ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model and its coupling with additional numerical models to represent rainfall-runoff, a surrogate or statistical model was trained to represent the relationship between hurricane wind- and pressure-field characteristics and their peak joint flood response typically determined from physics based numerical models. This builds upon past studies that have only evaluated surrogate models for predicting peak surge, and provides the first system capable of probabilistically representing joint flood levels from TCs. The utility of this joint flood prediction system is then demonstrated by improving upon probabilistic TC flood risk products, which currently account for storm surge but do not take into account TC associated rainfall-runoff. Results demonstrate the source apportionment of rainfall-runoff versus storm surge and highlight that slight increases in flood risk levels may occur due to the interaction between rainfall-runoff and storm surge as compared to the Federal Emergency Management Association's (FEMAs) current practices.

  10. Hurricane risk management and climate information gatekeeping in southeast Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treuer, G.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical storms provide fresh water necessary for healthy economies and health ecosystems. Hurricanes, massive tropical storms, threaten catastrophic flooding and wind damage. Sea level rise exacerbates flooding risks from rain and storm surge for coastal communities. Climate change adaptation measures to manage this risk must be implemented locally, but actions at other levels of government and by neighboring communities impact the options available to local municipalities. When working on adaptation local decision makers must balance multiple types of risk: physical or scientifically described risks, legal risks, and political risks. Generating usable or actionable climate science is a goal of the academic climate community. To do this we need to expand our analysis to include types of risk that constrain the use of objective science. Integrating physical, legal, and political risks is difficult. Each requires specific expertise and uses unique language. An opportunity exists to study how local decision makers manage all three on a daily basis and how their risk management impacts climate resilience for communities and ecosystems. South Florida's particular vulnerabilities make it an excellent case study. Besides physical vulnerabilities (low elevation, intense coastal development, frequent hurricanes, compromised ecosystems) it also has unique legal and political challenges. Federal and state property rights protections create legal risks for government action that restricts land use to promote climate adaptation. Also, a lack of cases that deal with climate change creates uncertainty about the nature of these legal risks. Politically Florida is divided ideologically and geographically. The regions in the southeast which are most vulnerable are predominantly Hispanic and under-represented at the state level, where leadership on climate change is functionally nonexistent. It is conventional wisdom amongst water managers in Florida that little climate adaptation

  11. Solar Tornado Prominences: Plasma Motions Along Filament Barbs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panasenco, Olga; Velli, Marco; Martin, Sara F.; Rappazzo, Franco

    2013-03-01

    Recent high-resolution observations from the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) have reawakened interest in the old and fascinating phenomenon of solar tornado prominences. This class of prominences was first introduced by E. Pettit in 1932, who studied them over many years up to 1950. High resolution and high cadence multi-wavelength data obtained by SDO reveal that the tornado-like properties of these prominences are mainly an illusion due to projection effects. We show that counterstreaming plasma motions with projected velocities up to +/- 45 km/sec along the prominence spine and barbs create a tornado-like impression when viewed at the limb. We demonstrate that barbs are often rooted at the intersection between 4-5 supergranular cells. We discuss the observed oscillations along the vertical parts of barbs and whether they may be related to vortex flows coming from the convection downdrafts at the intersection of supergranules (and possibly smaller convective cells) in the photosphere and their entrained magnetic field. The unwinding of magnetic threads near the photosphere via reconnection might be a source of the waves which are observed as oscillations in prominence barbs.

  12. Hurricane Ike Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Ike poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-15 shows Hurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward Galveston Island, Texas. Poster size is 36"x27".

  13. Climatology, storm morphologies, and environments of tornadoes in the British Isles: 1980–2012

    OpenAIRE

    Mulder, Kelsey J.; Schultz, David M.

    2015-01-01

    A climatology is developed for tornadoes during 1980–2012 in the British Isles, defined in this article as England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Channel Islands, and the Isle of Man. The climatology includes parent storm type, interannual variability, annual and diurnal cycles, intensities, oc- currence of outbreaks (defined as three or more tornadoes in the same day), geographic distribution, and environmental conditions derived from proximity soundings of tornadoe...

  14. iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system

  15. Floods of June-July 1957 in Indiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoppenhorst, Charles E.

    1958-01-01

    The floods of June-July 1957 exceeded those previously known on some of the tributaries of the Wabash and White Rivers in central Indiana. Six lives were lost, 1,282 dwellings were damaged, and 125 business places were flooded. Heavy rains of June 27 and 28 resulted from remnants of Hurricane Audrey meeting a front that lay across central Indiana. Heaviest rainfall reported for the storm period at a U.S. Weather Bureau station was 10.15 inches at Rockville. Previous maximum stages during the period of record were exceeded at 12 gaging stations. The peak stage on Raccoon Creek at Mansfield exceeded the previous maximum known stage, which occurred in 1875. One of the notable rates of discharge recorded was 245 cfs per square mile from a drainage area of 440 square miles on Raccoon Creek at Coxville.

  16. Problems and proposed solution in evaluating tornado-borne missile speed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eguchi, Yuzuru; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Hattori, Yasuo; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

    2014-01-01

    Large variation was found among the design values of tornado missile speed shown in current standards and guides in Japan and U.S. It was also found that the design missile speed indicated in the Guide issued by the Nuclear Regulation Authority of Japan is the most restrictive among them. The primary reason is due to the evaluation method where all the objects are unconditionally assumed to be placed in air as high as 40 m, even if the object should be on the ground. In order to solve this problem, the authors have adopted the tornado engineering model DBT-77 proposed by Dr. Fujita as a wind field model, and developed a numerical analysis code TONBOS with adding an object liftoff model. The effectiveness of the numerical analysis code was demonstrated by simulating liftoff and flight of a truck struck by an F3 tornado in Saroma. (author)

  17. The 100-year flood seems to be changing. Can we really tell?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceres, R. L., Jr.; Forest, C. E.; Keller, K.

    2017-12-01

    Widespread flooding from Hurricane Harvey greatly exceeded the Federal Emergency Management Agency's 100-year flood levels. In the US, this flood level is often used as an important line of demarcation where areas above this level are considered safe, while areas below the line are at risk and require additional flood risk mitigation. In the wake of Harvey's damage, the US media has highlighted at least two important questions. First, has the 100-year flood level changed? Second, is the 100-year flood level a good metric for determining flood risk? To address the first question, we use an Observation System Simulation Experiment of storm surge flood levels and find that gradual changes to the 100-year storm surge level may not be reliably detected over the long lifespans expected of major flood risk mitigation strategies. Additionally, we find that common extreme value analysis models lead to biased results and additional uncertainty when incorrect assumptions are used for the underlying statistical model. These incorrect assumptions can lead to examples of negative learning. Addressing the second question, these findings further challenge the validity of using simple return levels such as the 100-year flood as a decision tool for assessing flood risk. These results indicate risk management strategies must account for such uncertainties to build resilient and robust planning tools that stakeholders desperately need.

  18. Evaluation of atmospheric-pressure change in tornado using Fujita model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimizu, Juntaro; Ohtsubo, Shunsuke

    2017-01-01

    Evaluation of the atmospheric-pressure change (APC) in a tornado is necessary to assess the integrity of nuclear-related facilities. The Rankine model has been most frequently used to theoretically calculate the APC in a tornado. The result, however, is considered to be overly conservative because the Rankine model wind speed at the ground is larger than that in reality. On the other hand, the wind speed of the Fujita model is closer to that of actual tornadoes but is expressed by more complicated algebraic equations than that in the Rankine model. Also, because it is impossible to analytically derive the APC equation using the Fujita model, numerical computation is required. A previous study employed the finite element method (FEM) for such a purpose. However, a general-purpose FEM code often requires complicated input parameters. In order to conduct parametric studies to evaluate the integrity of facilities in various cases of tornadoes, the finite-difference method code “TORPEC”, which is specialized to analyze the APC, was developed as a convenient design tool. TORPEC is based on Poisson’s equation derived from the Navier-Stokes equation. It also runs on widely available technical calculation software such as Microsoft"® Excel VBA or MATLAB"®. Taking advantage of such convenience, various calculations have been conducted to reveal the characteristics of APC as functions of the maximum tangential wind speed, axial position and tornado radius. TORPEC is used as a benchmark in the existing paper. The case study results obtained by TORPEC show a constant ratio of the pressure drop of the Fujita model against the Rankine model. This factor can be used to derive the Fujita model result from the Rankine model result without FEM analysis. (author)

  19. Explicating Experience: Development of a Valid Scale of Past Hazard Experience for Tornadoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demuth, Julie L

    2018-03-23

    People's past experiences with a hazard theoretically influence how they approach future risks. Yet, past hazard experience has been conceptualized and measured in wide-ranging, often simplistic, ways, resulting in mixed findings about its relationship with risk perception. This study develops a scale of past hazard experiences, in the context of tornadoes, that is content and construct valid. A conceptual definition was developed, a set of items were created to measure one's most memorable and multiple tornado experiences, and the measures were evaluated through two surveys of the public who reside in tornado-prone areas. Four dimensions emerged of people's most memorable experience, reflecting their awareness of the tornado risk that day, their personalization of the risk, the intrusive impacts on them personally, and impacts experienced vicariously through others. Two dimensions emerged of people's multiple experiences, reflecting common types of communication received and negative emotional responses. These six dimensions are novel in that they capture people's experience across the timeline of a hazard as well as intangible experiences that are both direct and indirect. The six tornado experience dimensions were correlated with tornado risk perceptions measured as cognitive-affective and as perceived probability of consequences. The varied experience-risk perception results suggest that it is important to understand the nuances of these concepts and their relationships. This study provides a foundation for future work to continue explicating past hazard experience, across different risk contexts, and for understanding its effect on risk assessment and responses. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Why near-miss events can decrease an individual's protective response to hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Robin L; Tinsley, Catherine H; Cronin, Matthew

    2011-03-01

    Prior research shows that when people perceive the risk of some hazardous event to be low, they are unlikely to engage in mitigation activities for the potential hazard. We believe one factor that can lower inappropriately (from a normative perspective) people's perception of the risk of a hazard is information about prior near-miss events. A near-miss occurs when an event (such as a hurricane), which had some nontrivial probability of ending in disaster (loss of life, property damage), does not because good fortune intervenes. People appear to mistake such good fortune as an indicator of resiliency. In our first study, people with near-miss information were less likely to purchase flood insurance, and this was shown for both participants from the general population and individuals with specific interests in risk and natural disasters. In our second study, we consider a different mitigation decision, that is, to evacuate from a hurricane, and vary the level of statistical probability of hurricane damage. We still found a strong effect for near-miss information. Our research thus shows how people who have experienced a similar situation but escape damage because of chance will make decisions consistent with a perception that the situation is less risky than those without the past experience. We end by discussing the implications for risk communication. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. The value of wetlands in protecting southeast louisiana from hurricane storm surges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbier, Edward B; Georgiou, Ioannis Y; Enchelmeyer, Brian; Reed, Denise J

    2013-01-01

    The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.

  2. Axisymmetric Tornado Simulations with a Semi-Slip Boundary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian H. Fiedler

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The structure of natural tornadoes and simulated analogs are sensitive to the lower boundary condition for friction. Three-dimensional numerical simulations of storms require a choice for turbulence parameterizations and resolution of wind near the lower boundary. This article explores some of the consequences of choices of a surface drag coefficient on the structure of a mature simulated tornado, using a conventional axisymmetric model. The surface drag parameterization is explored over the range of the semi-slip condition, including the extremes of no-slip and free-slip. A moderate semi-slip condition allows for an extreme pressure deficit, but without the unrealistic vortex breakdown of the no-slip condition.

  3. Predicting floods with Flickr tags.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkachenko, Nataliya; Jarvis, Stephen; Procter, Rob

    2017-01-01

    Increasingly, user generated content (UGC) in social media postings and their associated metadata such as time and location stamps are being used to provide useful operational information during natural hazard events such as hurricanes, storms and floods. The main advantage of these new sources of data are twofold. First, in a purely additive sense, they can provide much denser geographical coverage of the hazard as compared to traditional sensor networks. Second, they provide what physical sensors are not able to do: By documenting personal observations and experiences, they directly record the impact of a hazard on the human environment. For this reason interpretation of the content (e.g., hashtags, images, text, emojis, etc) and metadata (e.g., keywords, tags, geolocation) have been a focus of much research into social media analytics. However, as choices of semantic tags in the current methods are usually reduced to the exact name or type of the event (e.g., hashtags '#Sandy' or '#flooding'), the main limitation of such approaches remains their mere nowcasting capacity. In this study we make use of polysemous tags of images posted during several recent flood events and demonstrate how such volunteered geographic data can be used to provide early warning of an event before its outbreak.

  4. Casualty Risk From Tornadoes in the United States is Highest in Urbanized Areas Across the Mid South

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricker, T.; Elsner, J.

    2017-12-01

    Risk factors for tornado casualties are well known. Less understood is how and to what degree these determinants, after controlling for strength and urban density, vary spatially and temporally. Here we fit models to casualty counts from all casualty-producing tornadoes since 1995 in order to quantify the interactions between urbanization and energy on casualty rates. Results from the models show that the more urbanized areas of the Mid South are substantively and significantly more vulnerable to casualties from tornadoes than elsewhere in the country. Casualty rates are significantly higher on the weekend for tornadoes in this region. Night and day casualty rates are similar regardless of where they occur. Higher vulnerability to casualties from tornadoes occurring in more urbanized areas correspond significantly with greater percentages of elderly people. Many of the micro cities in the Mid South are threatened by tornadoes annually and this threat might potentially be exacerbated by climate change.

  5. Swamp tours in Louisiana post Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawn J. Schaffer; Craig A. Miller

    2007-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita made landfall in southern Louisiana during August and September 2005. Prior to these storms, swamp tours were a growing sector of nature-based tourism that entertained visitors while teaching about local flora, fauna, and culture. This study determined post-hurricane operating status of tours, damage sustained, and repairs made. Differences...

  6. Development of a tornado wind speed hazard model for limited area (TOWLA) for nuclear power plants at a coastline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirakuchi, Hiromaru; Nohara, Daisuke; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Hattori, Yasuo

    2016-01-01

    It is necessary for Japanese electric power companies to assess tornado risks on the nuclear power plants according to a new regulation in 2013. The new regulatory guide recommends to select a long narrow strip area along a coast line with the width of 5 km to the seaward and landward sides as a target area of tornado risk assessment, because most of Japanese tornados have been reported near the coast line, where all of Japanese nuclear power plants are located. However, it is very difficult to evaluate a tornado hazard along a coast line, because there is no available information of F-scale and damage length/width on tornadic waterspouts. The purpose of this study is to propose a new tornado wind hazard model for limited area (TOWLA), which can be apply to a long narrow strip area along a coastline. In order to consider tornadic waterspouts moved inland, we evaluate the number of waterspouts entering/passing the targeting area, and add them to the total number of the tornado occurred in the area. A characteristic of the model is to use 'segment lengths' instead of damage lengths. The segment length is a part of the tornado foot print in the long narrow strip area. We show two methods for segment length computation. One is based on tornado records; latitude and longitude of tornado genesis and dissipation locations. The other is to compute the expected segment length based on the geometrical relationship among the damage length, area width, and directional characteristics of tornado movement. The new model can also consider the variation of tornado intensity along the path length and across the path width. (author)

  7. Hurricane Katrina: A Teachable Moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, Peggy

    2009-01-01

    This article presents suggestions for integrating the phenomenon of hurricanes into the teaching of high school fluid mechanics. Students come to understand core science concepts in the context of their impact upon both the environment and human populations. Suggestions for using information about hurricanes, particularly Hurricane Katrina, in a…

  8. Comparing residential contamination in a Houston environmental justice neighborhood before and after Hurricane Harvey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer A Horney

    Full Text Available Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs are complex environmental toxicants. Exposure to them has been linked to adverse health outcomes including cancer, as well as diseases of the skin, liver, and immune system. Based on an ongoing community engagement partnership with stakeholder groups and residents, we conducted a small longitudinal study to assess domestic exposure to PAHs among residents of Manchester, an environmental justice neighborhood located in the East End of Houston, TX.In December, 2016, we used fiber wipes to collect samples of household dust from 25 homes in Manchester. Following Hurricane Harvey, in September 2017, we revisited 24 of the 25 homes to collect soil samples from the front yards of the same homes. Wipes and soil were analyzed for the presence of PAHs using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS methods. Principal component analysis plots, heatmaps, and PAH ratios were used to compare pre- and post-Hurricane Harvey samples.While direct comparison is not possible, we present three methods for comparing PAHs found in pre-hurricane fiber wipes and post-hurricane soil samples. The methods demonstrate that the PAHs found before and after Hurricane Harvey are likely from similar sources and that those sources are most likely to be associated with combustion. We also found evidence of redistribution of PAHs due to extreme flooding associated with Hurricane Harvey.Residents of the Manchester neighborhood of Houston, TX, are exposed to a range of PAHs in household dust and outdoor soil. While it was not possible to compare directly, we were able to use several methods to assess detected concentrations, changes in site-specific PAH allocations, and PAH origination. Additional research is needed to identify specific sources of domestic PAH exposure in these communities and continued work involving community members and policy makers should aim to develop interventions to reduce domestic exposure to and prevent negative

  9. Temporal Vulnerability and the Post-Disaster ‘Window of Opportunity to Woo' : A Case Study of an African-American Floodplain Neighborhood after Hurricane Floyd in North Carolina

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, D.H.

    After major flooding associated with Hurricane Floyd (1999) in North Carolina, mitigation managers seized upon the “window of opportunity” to woo residents to accept residential buyout offers despite sizable community resistance. I present a theoretical explanation of how post-crisis periods turn

  10. Utilizing Tornado Data for Classroom Exercises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Fred

    Exercises were developed using tornado statistics to provide students with a better understanding of the spatial and temporal characteristics of these phenomena in the United States. Four categories of exercises were considered beginning with the simplest and progressing to the more complex. The first set of exercises required students to…

  11. Hydrology and hydraulics of Cypress Creek watershed, Texas during Hurricane Harvey and Impact of Potential Mitigation Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Hassan, A.; Fares, A.; Risch, E.

    2017-12-01

    Rain resulting from Hurricane Harvey stated to spread into Harris County late in August 25 and continued until August 31 2017. This high intensity rainfall caused catastrophic flooding across the Greater Houston Area and south Texas. The objectives of this study are to use the USACE Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis model (GSSHA) to: i) simulate the hydrology and hydraulics of Cypress Creek watershed and quantify the impact of hurricane Harvey on it; and ii) test potential mitigation measures, e.g., construction of a third surface reservoir on the flooding and hydrology of this watershed. Cypress Creek watershed area is 733 km2. Simulations were conducted using precipitation from two sources a) the Multisensory Precipitation Estimator radar products (MPE) and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system. Streamflow was downloaded from the USGS gauge at the outlet of the watershed. The models performance using both precipitation data was very reasonable. The construction of an 8 m high embankment at the south central part of the watershed resulted in over 22% reduction of the peak flow of the stream and also reduction of the depth of inundation across the east part of the watershed. These and other mitigation scenarios will be further discussed in details during the presentation.

  12. Tornado missile simulation and design methodology. Volume 2: model verification and data base updates. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.

    1981-08-01

    A probabilistic methodology has been developed to predict the probabilities of tornado-propelled missiles impacting and damaging nuclear power plant structures. Mathematical models of each event in the tornado missile hazard have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated, time-history simulation methodology. The models are data based where feasible. The data include documented records of tornado occurrence, field observations of missile transport, results of wind tunnel experiments, and missile impact tests. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the risk probabilities. The methodology has been encoded in the TORMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific tornado missile probability assessments

  13. Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning

    Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

  14. NASA Earth Science Disasters Program Response Activities During Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, J. R.; Schultz, L. A.; Molthan, A.; Kirschbaum, D.; Roman, M.; Yun, S. H.; Meyer, F. J.; Hogenson, K.; Gens, R.; Goodman, H. M.; Owen, S. E.; Lou, Y.; Amini, R.; Glasscoe, M. T.; Brentzel, K. W.; Stefanov, W. L.; Green, D. S.; Murray, J. J.; Seepersad, J.; Struve, J. C.; Thompson, V.

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season included a series of storms that impacted the United States, and the Caribbean breaking a 12-year drought of landfalls in the mainland United States (Harvey and Irma), with additional impacts from the combination of Irma and Maria felt in the Caribbean. These storms caused widespread devastation resulting in a significant need to support federal partners in response to these destructive weather events. The NASA Earth Science Disasters Program provided support to federal partners including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Guard Bureau (NGB) by leveraging remote sensing and other expertise through NASA Centers and partners in academia throughout the country. The NASA Earth Science Disasters Program leveraged NASA mission products from the GPM mission to monitor cyclone intensity, assist with cyclone center tracking, and quantifying precipitation. Multispectral imagery from the NASA-NOAA Suomi-NPP mission and the VIIRS Day-Night Band proved useful for monitoring power outages and recovery. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellites operated by the European Space Agency were used to create flood inundation and damage assessment maps that were useful for damage density mapping. Using additional datasets made available through the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System and the activation of the International Charter: Space and Major Disasters, the NASA Earth Science Disasters Program created additional flood products from optical and radar remote sensing platforms, along with PI-led efforts to derive products from other international partner assets such as the COSMO-SkyMed system. Given the significant flooding impacts from Harvey in the Houston area, NASA provided airborne L-band SAR collections from the UAVSAR system which captured the daily evolution of record flooding, helping to guide response and mitigation decisions for critical infrastructure and public safety. We

  15. RURAL FLASH-FLOOD BEHAVIOR IN GOUYAVE WATERSHED, GRENADA, CARIBBEAN ISLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahmat Aris Pratomo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Flash-flood is considered as one of the most common natural disasters in Grenada, a tropical small state island in Caribbean Island. Grenada has several areas which are susceptible to flooding. One of them is Gouyave town which is located in the north-west of Grenada. Its land-use types are highly dominated by green areas, especially in the upper-part of the region. The built-up areas can only be found in the lower-part of Gouyave watershed, near the coastal area. However, there were many land conversions from natural land-use types into built-up areas in the upper-part region. They affected the decrease of water infiltration and the increase of potential run-off, making these areas susceptible to flash-flood. In addition, it is also influenced by the phenomenon of climate change. Changes in extreme temperature increase higher potential of hurricanes or wind-storm, directly related to the potential escalation of flash-flood. To develop effective mitigation strategies, understanding the behavior of flash-flood is required. The purpose of this paper was to observe the behavior of flash-flood in Gouyave watershed in various return periods using OpenLISEM software. It was used to develop and analyse the flash-flood characteristics. The result showed that the climatic condition (rainfall intensity and land-use are influential to the flash-flood event. Flash-flood occurs in 35 and 100 years return period. Flash-flood inundates Gouyave’s area in long duration, with below 1 m flood depth. The flood propagation time is slow. This condition is also influenced by the narrower and longer of Gouyave basin shape. To develop flash-flood reduction strategies, the overall understanding of flash-flood behavior is important. If the mitigation strategy is adapted to their behavior, the implementation will be more optimum.

  16. Tornado: School Damage Tops $3 Million.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Story, Nancy

    1999-01-01

    Describes efforts by the publications staff of North Hall High School (Gainesville, Georgia) to cover a tornado and its aftermath. Notes that the first issue published after the storm focused in intrusion by the media. Suggests that an anniversary issues was more effective in achieving the emotional catharsis the school needed. (RS)

  17. Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey

    OpenAIRE

    Risser, MD; Wehner, MF

    2017-01-01

    ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increase...

  18. 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes poster features high quality satellite images of 15 hurricanes which formed in the Atlantic Basin (includes Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean...

  19. Floods of 2005 in the State of Veracruz Book Presentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejeda, A.; Ochoa, C.

    2007-05-01

    During October of 2005, when hurricane Stan caused destruction to the center and south of the state of Veracruz, a book was elaborated. The book's called Floods of 2005 in the state of Veracruz and contains twenty chapters. The first three chapters conform a panoramic of the book and two historical and archaeological contributions. One second part takes care of the natural phenomena of floods: meteorological, hydrological aspects, and biodiversity. Economic and social aspects are the largest contents of the volume, which concludes with reflections towards the future: the possible consequences of global climatic change, the chemical component that's not considered in the evaluation and prevention of risks by hidrometeorogical phenomena, and the duty of political prevention of disasters. The frame reference for the book is through a discussion of all kind of contributions. Which means that this book presentation is for the geophysicists community of Mexico. Keywords: Floods, state of Veracruz, risks and disasters.

  20. Laboratory Study of Topographic Effects on the Near-surface Tornado Flow Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, Alireza; Sarkar, Partha P.

    2018-03-01

    To study topographic effects on the near-surface tornado flow field, the Iowa State University tornado simulator was used to simulate a translating tornado passing over three different two-dimensional topographies: a ridge, an escarpment and a valley. The effect of the translation speed on maximum horizontal wind speeds is observed for translation speeds of 0.15 and 0.50 m s^{-1} , with the lower value resulting in a larger maximum horizontal wind speed. The tornado translation over the three topographies with respect to flat terrain is assessed for changes in: (a) the maximum horizontal wind speeds in terms of the flow-amplification factor; (b) the maximum aerodynamic drag in terms of the tornado speed-up ratio; (c) the maximum duration of exposure at any location to high wind speeds of a specific range in terms of the exposure amplification factor. Results show that both the maximum wind amplification factor of 14%, as well as the maximum speed-up ratio of 14%, occur on the ridge. For all topographies, the increase in aerodynamic drag is observed to be maximized for low-rise buildings, which illustrates the importance of the vertical profiles of the horizontal wind speed near the ground. The maximum exposure amplification factors, estimated for the range of wind speeds corresponding to the EF2 (50-60 m s^{-1} ) and EF3 (61-75 m s^{-1}) scales, are 86 and 110% for the ridge, 4 and 60% for the escarpment and - 6 and 47% for the valley, respectively.

  1. Working after a tornado: a survey of hospital personnel in Joplin, Missouri.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charney, Rachel; Rebmann, Terri; Flood, Robert G

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, an EF5 tornado hit Joplin, MO, requiring complete evacuation of 1 hospital and a patient surge to another. We sought to assess the resilience of healthcare workers in these hospitals as measured by number reporting to work, willingness to work, personal disaster preparedness, and childcare responsibilities following the disaster. In May 2013, a survey was distributed to healthcare workers at both Joplin hospitals that asked them to report their willingness to work and personal disaster preparedness following various disaster scenarios. For those with childcare responsibilities, scheduling, costs, and impact of hypothetical alternative childcare programs were considered in the analyses. A total of 1,234 healthcare workers completed the survey (response rate: 23.4%). Most (87.8%) worked the week following the Joplin tornado. Healthcare workers report more willingness to work during a future earthquake or tornado compared to their pre-Joplin tornado attitudes (86.2 vs 88.4%, t=-4.3, ptornado personal disaster preparedness, but only preevent preparedness was a significant predictor of postevent preparedness. Nearly half (48.5%, n=598) had childcare responsibilities; 61% (n=366) had childcare needs the week of the tornado, and 54% (n=198) required the use of alternative childcare. If their hospital had provided alternative childcare, 51% would have used it and 42% felt they would have been more willing to report to work. Most healthcare workers reported to work following this disaster, demonstrating true resilience. Disaster planners should be aware of these perceptions as they formulate their own emergency operation plans.

  2. 2004 Landfalling Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2004 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes poster is a special edition poster which contains two sets of images of Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, created...

  3. Doppler Radar and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis; Cammarata, Michael; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 12 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Time-height analyses of the three strongest supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and evolution. These Beryl mini-supercells were comparable in radar-observed intensity but much more persistent than other tropical cyclone-spawned tornadic cells documented thus far with Doppler radars. Cloud-to-ground lightning data are also examined for all the tornadic cells in this severe swarm-type tornado outbreak. These data show many of the characteristics of previously reported heavy-precipitation supercells. Lightning rates were weak to moderate, even in the more intense supercells, and in all the storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. No lightning at all was detected in some of the single-tornado storms. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that lightning rates can decrease during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final cloud-to-ground lightning flashes. These findings suggest possible benefits from implementation of observing systems capable of monitoring intracloud as well as cloud-to-ground lightning activity.

  4. Quantification of Interbasin Transfers into the Addicks Reservoir during Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, A.; Juan, A.; Gori, A.; Maulsby, F.; Bedient, P. B.

    2017-12-01

    Between August 25 and 30, Hurricane Harvey dropped unprecedented rainfall over southeast Texas causing widespread flooding in the City of Houston. Water levels in the Addicks and Barker reservoirs, built in the 1940s to protect downtown Houston, exceeded previous records by approximately 2 meters. Concerns regarding structural integrity of the dams and damage to neighbourhoods in within the reservoir pool resulted in controlled releases into Buffalo Bayou, flooding an estimated 4,000 additional structures downstream of the dams. In 2016, during the Tax Day it became apparent that overflows from Cypress Creek in northern Harris County substantially contribute to water levels in Addicks. Prior to this event, little was known about the hydrodynamics of this overflow area or about the additional stress placed on Addicks and Barker reservoirs due to the volume of overflow. However, this information is critical for determining flood risk in Addicks Watershed, and ultimately Buffalo Bayou. In this study, we utilize the recently developed HEC-RAS 2D model the interbasin transfer that occurs between Cypress Creek Watershed and Addicks Reservoir to quantify the volume and rate at which water from Cypress enters the reservoir during extreme events. Ultimately, the results of this study will help inform the official hydrologic models used by HCFCD to determine reservoir operation during future storm events and better inform residents living in or above the reservoir pool about their potential flood risk.

  5. Hurricane Katrina Poster (August 28, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Katrina poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-18 shows a very large Hurricane Katrina as a category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on August 28, 2005....

  6. Hurricane Rita Poster (September 22, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Rita poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Rita as a category-4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on September 22, 2005. Poster size is...

  7. ON THE MAGNETISM AND DYNAMICS OF PROMINENCE LEGS HOSTING TORNADOES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martínez González, M. J.; Ramos, A. Asensio; Arregui, I.; Collados, M.; Beck, C.; Rodríguez, J. de la Cruz

    2016-01-01

    Solar tornadoes are dark vertical filamentary structures observed in the extreme ultraviolet associated with prominence legs and filament barbs. Their true nature and relationship to prominences requires an understanding of their magnetic structure and dynamic properties. Recently, a controversy has arisen: is the magnetic field organized forming vertical, helical structures or is it dominantly horizontal? And concerning their dynamics, are tornadoes really rotating or is it just a visual illusion? Here we analyze four consecutive spectro-polarimetric scans of a prominence hosting tornadoes on its legs, which helps us shed some light on their magnetic and dynamical properties. We show that the magnetic field is very smooth in all the prominence, which is probably an intrinsic property of the coronal field. The prominence legs have vertical helical fields that show slow temporal variation that is probably related to the motion of the fibrils. Concerning the dynamics, we argue that (1) if rotation exists, it is intermittent, lasting no more than one hour, and (2) the observed velocity pattern is also consistent with an oscillatory velocity pattern (waves).

  8. ON THE MAGNETISM AND DYNAMICS OF PROMINENCE LEGS HOSTING TORNADOES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martínez González, M. J.; Ramos, A. Asensio; Arregui, I.; Collados, M. [Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, Vía Láctea s/n, E-38205 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Beck, C. [National Solar Observatory, Sacramento Peak P.O. Box 62, Sunspot, NM 88349 (United States); Rodríguez, J. de la Cruz [Institute for Solar Physics, Department of Astronomy, Stockholm University, Albanova University Center, SE-10691 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2016-07-10

    Solar tornadoes are dark vertical filamentary structures observed in the extreme ultraviolet associated with prominence legs and filament barbs. Their true nature and relationship to prominences requires an understanding of their magnetic structure and dynamic properties. Recently, a controversy has arisen: is the magnetic field organized forming vertical, helical structures or is it dominantly horizontal? And concerning their dynamics, are tornadoes really rotating or is it just a visual illusion? Here we analyze four consecutive spectro-polarimetric scans of a prominence hosting tornadoes on its legs, which helps us shed some light on their magnetic and dynamical properties. We show that the magnetic field is very smooth in all the prominence, which is probably an intrinsic property of the coronal field. The prominence legs have vertical helical fields that show slow temporal variation that is probably related to the motion of the fibrils. Concerning the dynamics, we argue that (1) if rotation exists, it is intermittent, lasting no more than one hour, and (2) the observed velocity pattern is also consistent with an oscillatory velocity pattern (waves).

  9. Late Holocene flood probabilities in the Black Hills, South Dakota with emphasis on the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, James E.; Driscoll, Daniel G.

    2015-01-01

    A stratigraphic record of 35 large paleofloods and four large historical floods during the last 2000 years for four basins in the Black Hills of South Dakota reveals three long-term flooding episodes, identified using probability distributions, at A.D.: 120–395, 900–1290, and 1410 to present. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~ A.D. 900–1300) the four basins collectively experienced 13 large floods compared to nine large floods in the previous 800 years, including the largest floods of the last 2000 years for two of the four basins. This high concentration of extreme floods is likely caused by one or more of the following: 1) instability of air masses caused by stronger than normal westerlies; 2) larger or more frequent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean; and/or 3) reduced land covering vegetation or increased forest fires caused by persistent regional drought.

  10. Nekton density patterns and hurricane recovery in submerged aquatic vegetation, and along non-vegetated natural and created edge habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Peyre, M.K.; Gordon, J.

    2012-01-01

    We compared nekton habitat value of submerged aquatic vegetation, flooded non-vegetated natural and man-made edge habitats in mesohaline interior marsh areas in southwest Louisiana using a 1-m 2 throw trap and 3-mm bag seine. When present, SAV habitats supported close to 4 times greater densities and higher species richness of nekton as compared to either natural or man-made edge habitats, which supported similar densities to one another. Three species of concern (bayou killifish, diamond killifish, chain pipefish) were targeted in the analysis, and two of the three were collected almost entirely in SAV habitat. During the course of the study, Hurricanes Ike and Gustav passed directly over the study sites in September 2008. Subsequent analyses indicated significant reductions in resident nekton density 1-mo post hurricanes, and only limited recovery 13-mo post-hurricane. Possible alteration of environmental characteristics such as scouring of SAV habitat, deposition of sediment over SAV, edge erosion and marsh loss, and extended high salinities may explain these lasting impacts. ?? 2011.

  11. A probabilistic approach for assessing the vulnerability of transportation infrastructure to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, E. M.; Kirshen, P. H.; Bosma, K.; Watson, C.; Miller, S.; McArthur, K.

    2015-12-01

    There now exists a plethora of information attesting to the reality of our changing climate and its impacts on both human and natural systems. There also exists a growing literature linking climate change impacts and transportation infrastructure (highways, bridges, tunnels, railway, shipping ports, etc.) which largely agrees that the nation's transportation systems are vulnerable. To assess this vulnerability along the coast, flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge has most commonly been evaluated by simply increasing the water surface elevation and then estimating flood depth by comparing the new water surface elevation with the topographic elevations of the land surface. While this rudimentary "bathtub" approach may provide a first order identification of potential areas of vulnerability, accurate assessment requires a high resolution, physically-based hydrodynamic model that can simulate inundation due to the combined effects of sea level rise, storm surge, tides and wave action for site-specific locations. Furthermore, neither the "bathtub" approach nor other scenario-based approaches can quantify the probability of flooding due to these impacts. We developed a high resolution coupled ocean circulation-wave model (ADCIRC/SWAN) that utilizes a Monte Carlo approach for predicting the depths and associated exceedance probabilities of flooding due to both tropical (hurricanes) and extra-tropical storms under current and future climate conditions. This required the development of an entirely new database of meteorological forcing (e.g. pressure, wind speed, etc.) for historical Nor'easters in the North Atlantic basin. Flooding due to hurricanes and Nor'easters was simulated separately and then composite flood probability distributions were developed. Model results were used to assess the vulnerability of the Central Artery/Tunnel system in Boston, Massachusetts to coastal flooding now and in the future. Local and regional adaptation strategies were

  12. Characterization of the wind loads and flow fields around a gable-roof building model in tornado-like winds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Hui; Yang, Zifeng; Sarkar, Partha [Iowa State University, Department of Aerospace Engineering, Ames, IA (United States); Haan, Fred [Iowa State University, Department of Aerospace Engineering, Ames, IA (United States); Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Terre Haute, IN (United States)

    2011-09-15

    An experimental study was conducted to quantify the characteristics of a tornado-like vortex and to reveal the dynamics of the flow-structure interactions between a low-rise, gable-roof building model and swirling, turbulent tornado-like winds. The experimental work was conducted by using a large-scale tornado simulator located in the Aerospace Engineering Department of Iowa State University. In addition to measuring the pressure distributions and resultant wind loads acting on the building model, a digital Particle Image Velocimetry system was used to conduct detailed flow field measurements to quantify the evolution of the unsteady vortices and turbulent flow structures around the gable-roof building model in tornado-like winds. The effects of important parameters, such as the distance between the centers of the tornado-like vortex and the test model and the orientation angles of the building model related to the tornado-like vortex, on the evolutions of the wake vortices and turbulent flow structures around the gable-roof building model as well as the wind loads induced by the tornado-like vortex were assessed quantitatively. The detailed flow field measurements were correlated with the surface pressure and wind load measurements to elucidate the underlying physics to gain further insight into flow-structure interactions between the gable-roof building model and tornado-like winds in order to provide more accurate prediction of wind damage potential to built structures. (orig.)

  13. Mapping Pollution Plumes in Areas Impacted by Hurricane Katrina With Imaging Spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swayze, G. A.; Furlong, E. T.; Livo, K. E.

    2007-12-01

    New Orleans endured flooding on a massive scale subsequent to Hurricane Katrina in August of 2005. Contaminant plumes were noticeable in satellite images of the city in the days following flooding. Many of these plumes were caused by oil, gasoline, and diesel that leaked from inundated vehicles, gas stations, and refineries. News reports also suggested that the flood waters were contaminated with sewage from breached pipes. Effluent plumes such as these pose a potential health hazard to humans and wildlife in the aftermath of hurricanes and potentially from other catastrophic events (e.g., earthquakes, shipping accidents, chemical spills, and terrorist attacks). While the extent of effluent plumes can be gauged with synthetic aperture radar and broad- band visible-infrared images (Rykhus, 2005) (e.g., Radarsat and Landsat ETM+) the composition of the plumes could not be determined. These instruments lack the spectral resolution necessary to do chemical identification. Imaging spectroscopy may help solve this problem. Over 60 flight lines of NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data were collected over New Orleans, the Mississippi Delta, and the Gulf Coast from one to two weeks after Katrina while the contaminated water was being pumped out of flooded areas. These data provide a unique opportunity to test if imaging spectrometer data can be used to identify the chemistry of these flood-related plumes. Many chemicals have unique spectral signatures in the ultraviolet to near-infrared range (0.2 - 2.5 microns) that can be used as fingerprints for their identification. We are particularly interested in detecting thin films of oil, gasoline, diesel, and raw sewage suspended on or in water. If these materials can be successfully differentiated in the lab then we will use spectral-shape matching algorithms to look for their spectral signatures in the AVIRIS data collected over New Orleans and other areas impacted by Katrina. If imaging spectroscopy

  14. Tornado Damage Assessment: Reconstructing the Wind Through Debris Tracking and Treefall Pattern Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godfrey, C. M.; Peterson, C. J.; Lombardo, F.

    2017-12-01

    Efforts to enhance the resilience of communities to tornadoes requires an understanding of the interconnected nature of debris and damage propagation in both the built and natural environment. A first step toward characterizing the interconnectedness of these elements within a given community involves detailed post-event surveys of tornado damage. Such damage surveys immediately followed the 22 January 2017 EF3 tornadoes in the southern Georgia towns of Nashville and Albany. After assigning EF-scale ratings to impacted structures, the authors geotagged hundreds of pieces of debris scattered around selected residential structures and outbuildings in each neighborhood and paired each piece of debris with its source structure. Detailed information on trees in the vicinity of the structures supplements the debris data, including the species, dimensions, location, fall direction, and level of damage. High-resolution satellite imagery helps to identify the location and fall direction of hundreds of additional forest trees. These debris and treefall patterns allow an estimation of the near-surface wind field using a Rankine vortex model coupled with both a tree stability model and an infrastructure fragility model that simulates debris flight. Comparisons between the modeled damage and the actual treefall and debris field show remarkable similarities for a selected set of vortex parameters, indicating the viability of this approach for estimating enhanced Fujita scale levels, determining the near-surface wind field of a tornado during its passage through a neighborhood, and identifying how debris may contribute to the overall risk from tornadoes.

  15. Impacts of a large array of offshore wind farms on precipitation during hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Y.; Archer, C. L.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey brought to the Texas coast possibly the heaviest rain ever recorded in U.S. history, which then caused flooding at unprecedented levels. Previous studies have shown that large arrays of offshore wind farms can extract kinetic energy from a hurricane and thus reduce the wind and storm surge. This study will quantitatively test weather the offshore turbines may also affect precipitation patterns. The Weather Research Forecast model is employed to model Harvey and the offshore wind farms are parameterized as elevated drag and turbulence kinetic energy sources. The turbines (7.8 MW Enercon-126 with rotor diameter D=127 m) are placed along the coast of Texas and Louisiana within 100 km from the shore, where the water depth is below 200 meters. Three spacing between turbines are considered (with the number of turbines in parenthesis): 7D×7D (149,936), 9D×9D (84,339), and 11D×11D (56,226). A fourth case (9D×9D) with a smaller area and thus less turbines (33,363) is added to the simulations to emphasize the impacts of offshore turbines installed specifically to protect the city of Houston, which was flooded heavily during hurricane Harvey. The model is integrated for 24 hours from 00UTC Aug 26th, 2017 to 00UTC Aug 27th, 2017. Model results indicate that the offshore wind farms have a strong impact on the distribution of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, with an obvious decrease onshore, downstream of the wind farms, and an increase in the offshore areas, upstream of or within the wind farms. A sector covering the metro-Houston area is chosen to study the sensitivity of the four different wind farm layouts. The spatial-average 24-hour accumulated precipitation is decreased by 37%, 28%, 20% and 25% respectively for the four cases. Compared with the control case with no wind turbines, increased horizontal wind divergence and lower vertical velocity are found where the precipitation is reduced onshore, whereas increased horizontal wind convergence and

  16. ARE TORNADO-LIKE MAGNETIC STRUCTURES ABLE TO SUPPORT SOLAR PROMINENCE PLASMA?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luna, M.; Moreno-Insertis, F. [Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, E-38200 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Priest, E. [Mathematics Institute, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9SS (United Kingdom)

    2015-07-20

    Recent high-resolution and high-cadence observations have surprisingly suggested that prominence barbs exhibit apparent rotating motions suggestive of a tornado-like structure. Additional evidence has been provided by Doppler measurements. The observations reveal opposite velocities for both hot and cool plasma on the two sides of a prominence barb. This motion is persistent for several hours and has been interpreted in terms of rotational motion of prominence feet. Several authors suggest that such barb motions are rotating helical structures around a vertical axis similar to tornadoes on Earth. One of the difficulties of such a proposal is how to support cool prominence plasma in almost-vertical structures against gravity. In this work we model analytically a tornado-like structure and try to determine possible mechanisms to support the prominence plasma. We have found that the Lorentz force can indeed support the barb plasma provided the magnetic structure is sufficiently twisted and/or significant poloidal flows are present.

  17. Facebook and Twitter, communication and shelter, and the 2011 Tuscaloosa tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokes, Courtney; Senkbeil, Jason C

    2017-01-01

    This paper represents one of the first attempts to analyse the many ways in which Facebook and Twitter were used during a tornado disaster. Comparisons between five randomly selected campus samples and a city of Tuscaloosa, Alabama, sample revealed that campus samples used Facebook and Twitter significantly more both before and after the tornado, but Facebook usage was not significantly different after the event. Furthermore, differences in social media usage and other forms of communication before the tornado were found for age, education, and years lived in Tuscaloosa. Generally, age and education were inversely proportionate to social media usage. Influences on shelter-seeking actions varied between social media users and three random samples of non-social media users; however, it appears that social media respondents were likely to be using a smartphone simultaneously to access warning polygon information, to receive text message alerts, and to listen or respond to environmental cues. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  18. ARE TORNADO-LIKE MAGNETIC STRUCTURES ABLE TO SUPPORT SOLAR PROMINENCE PLASMA?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luna, M.; Moreno-Insertis, F.; Priest, E.

    2015-01-01

    Recent high-resolution and high-cadence observations have surprisingly suggested that prominence barbs exhibit apparent rotating motions suggestive of a tornado-like structure. Additional evidence has been provided by Doppler measurements. The observations reveal opposite velocities for both hot and cool plasma on the two sides of a prominence barb. This motion is persistent for several hours and has been interpreted in terms of rotational motion of prominence feet. Several authors suggest that such barb motions are rotating helical structures around a vertical axis similar to tornadoes on Earth. One of the difficulties of such a proposal is how to support cool prominence plasma in almost-vertical structures against gravity. In this work we model analytically a tornado-like structure and try to determine possible mechanisms to support the prominence plasma. We have found that the Lorentz force can indeed support the barb plasma provided the magnetic structure is sufficiently twisted and/or significant poloidal flows are present

  19. Are Tornado-Like Magnetic Structures Able to Support Solar Prominence Plasma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogunjo, S. T.; Luna Bennasar, M.; Moreno-Insertis, F.; Priest, E. R.

    2015-12-01

    Recent high-resolution and high-cadence observations have surprisingly suggested that prominence barbs exhibit apparent rotating motions suggestive of a tornado-like structure. Additional evidence has been provided by Doppler measurements. The observations reveal opposite velocities for both hot and cool plasma on the two sides of a prominence barb. This motion is persistent for several hours and has been interpreted in terms of rotational motion of prominence feet. Several authors suggest that such barb motions are rotating helical structures around a vertical axis similar to tornadoes on Earth. One of the difficulties of such a proposal is how to support cool prominence plasma in almost-vertical structures against gravity. In this work we model analytically a tornado-like structure and try to determine possible mechanisms to support the prominence plasma. We have found that the Lorentz force can indeed support the barb plasma provided the magnetic structure is sufficiently twisted and/or significant poloidal flows are present.

  20. Recovery from PTSD following Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Katie A; Berglund, Patricia; Gruber, Michael J; Kessler, Ronald C; Sampson, Nancy A; Zaslavsky, Alan M

    2011-06-01

    We examined patterns and correlates of speed of recovery of estimated posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among people who developed PTSD in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. A probability sample of prehurricane residents of areas affected by Hurricane Katrina was administered a telephone survey 7-19 months following the hurricane and again 24-27 months posthurricane. The baseline survey assessed PTSD using a validated screening scale and assessed a number of hypothesized predictors of PTSD recovery that included sociodemographics, prehurricane history of psychopathology, hurricane-related stressors, social support, and social competence. Exposure to posthurricane stressors and course of estimated PTSD were assessed in a follow-up interview. An estimated 17.1% of respondents had a history of estimated hurricane-related PTSD at baseline and 29.2% by the follow-up survey. Of the respondents who developed estimated hurricane-related PTSD, 39.0% recovered by the time of the follow-up survey with a mean duration of 16.5 months. Predictors of slow recovery included exposure to a life-threatening situation, hurricane-related housing adversity, and high income. Other sociodemographics, history of psychopathology, social support, social competence, and posthurricane stressors were unrelated to recovery from estimated PTSD. The majority of adults who developed estimated PTSD after Hurricane Katrina did not recover within 18-27 months. Delayed onset was common. Findings document the importance of initial trauma exposure severity in predicting course of illness and suggest that pre- and posttrauma factors typically associated with course of estimated PTSD did not influence recovery following Hurricane Katrina. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  1. 48 CFR 1852.236-73 - Hurricane plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Hurricane plan. 1852.236-73... Hurricane plan. As prescribed in 1836.570(c), insert the following clause: Hurricane Plan (DEC 1988) In the event of a hurricane warning, the Contractor shall— (a) Inspect the area and place all materials...

  2. Wetland Accretion Rates Along Coastal Louisiana: Spatial and Temporal Variability in Light of Hurricane Isaac’s Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas A. Bianchette

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The wetlands of the southern Louisiana coast are disappearing due to a host of environmental stressors. Thus, it is imperative to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of wetland vertical accretion rates. A key question in accretion concerns the role of landfalling hurricanes as a land-building agent, due to their propensity to deposit significant volumes of inorganic sediments. Since 1996, thousands of accretion measurements have been made at 390 sites across coastal Louisiana as a result of a regional monitoring network, called the Coastal Reference Monitoring System (CRMS. We utilized this dataset to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of accretion by mapping rates during time periods before, around, and after the landfall of Hurricane Isaac (2012. This analysis is vital for quantifying the role of hurricanes as a land-building agent and for understanding the main mechanism causing heightened wetland accretion. The results show that accretion rates averaged about 2.89 cm/year from stations sampled before Isaac, 4.04 cm/year during the period encompassing Isaac, and 2.38 cm/year from sites established and sampled after Isaac. Accretion rates attributable to Isaac’s effects were therefore 40% and 70% greater than before and after the event, respectively, indicating the event’s importance toward coastal land-building. Accretion associated with Isaac was highest at sites located 70 kilometers from the storm track, particularly those near the Mississippi River and its adjacent distributaries and lakes. This spatial pattern of elevated accretion rates indicates that freshwater flooding from fluvial channels, rather than storm surge from the sea per se, is the main mechanism responsible for increased wetland accretion. This significance of riverine flooding has implications toward future coastal restoration policies and practices.

  3. TORNADO-LIKE EVOLUTION OF A KINK-UNSTABLE SOLAR PROMINENCE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Wensi; Liu, Rui; Wang, Yuming, E-mail: rliu@ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2017-01-01

    We report on the tornado-like evolution of a quiescent prominence on 2014 November 1. The eastern section of the prominence first rose slowly, transforming into an arch-shaped structure as high as ∼150 Mm above the limb; the arch then writhed moderately in a left-handed sense, while the original dark prominence material emitted in the Fe ix 171 Å passband, and a braided structure appeared at the eastern edge of the warped arch. The unraveling of the braided structure was associated with a transient brightening in the EUV and apparently contributed to the formation of a curtain-like structure (CLS). The CLS consisted of myriad thread-like loops rotating counterclockwise about the vertical if viewed from above. Heated prominence material was observed to slide along these loops and land outside the filament channel. The tornado eventually disintegrated and the remaining material flew along a left-handed helical path constituting approximately a full turn, as corroborated through stereoscopic reconstruction, into the cavity of the stable, western section of the prominence. We suggest that the tornado-like evolution of the prominence was governed by the helical kink instability, and that the CLS formed through magnetic reconnections between the prominence field and the overlying coronal field.

  4. Modeling of Flood Risk for the Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.

    2011-12-01

    The science of catastrophic risk modeling helps people to understand the physical and financial implications of natural catastrophes (hurricanes, flood, earthquakes, etc.), terrorism, and the risks associated with changes in life expectancy. As such it depends on simulation techniques that integrate multiple disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology, structural engineering, statistics, computer science, financial engineering, actuarial science, and more in virtually every field of technology. In this talk we will explain the techniques and underlying assumptions of building the RMS US flood risk model. We especially will pay attention to correlation (spatial and temporal), simulation and uncertainty in each of the various components in the development process. Recent extreme floods (e.g. US Midwest flood 2008, US Northeast flood, 2010) have increased the concern of flood risk. Consequently, there are growing needs to adequately assess the flood risk. The RMS flood hazard model is mainly comprised of three major components. (1) Stochastic precipitation simulation module based on a Monte-Carlo analogue technique, which is capable of producing correlated rainfall events for the continental US. (2) Rainfall-runoff and routing module. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to properly assess the antecedent conditions, determine the saturation area and runoff. The runoff is further routed downstream along the rivers by a routing model. Combined with the precipitation model, it allows us to correlate the streamflow and hence flooding from different rivers, as well as low and high return-periods across the continental US. (3) Flood inundation module. It transforms the discharge (output from the flow routing) into water level, which is further combined with a two-dimensional off-floodplain inundation model to produce comprehensive flood hazard map. The performance of the model is demonstrated by comparing to the observation and published data. Output from

  5. Tornado Emergency Readiness Planning for Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisconsin State Dept. of Public Instruction, Madison.

    A place of safe refuge in the event of violent natural forces or a tornado should be included in the design of all new school buildings. Existing a school buildings should be analyzed by the architect, contractor, or engineer to determine if a safe place exists or if one can be readily adapted. Most criteria for fallout shelters are the same for…

  6. 24 CFR 791.407 - Headquarters Reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... needs resulting from natural and other disasters, including hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, high water, wind driven water, tidal waves, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, mudslides...

  7. Flooding Simulation of Extreme Event on Barnegat Bay by High-Resolution Two Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Ramaswamy, V.; Saleh, F.

    2017-12-01

    Barnegat Bay located on the east coast of New Jersey, United States and is separated from the Atlantic Ocean by the narrow Barnegat Peninsula which acts as a barrier island. The bay is fed by several rivers which empty through small estuaries along the inner shore. In terms of vulnerability from flooding, the Barnegat Peninsula is under the influence of both coastal storm surge and riverine flooding. Barnegat Bay was hit by Hurricane Sandy causing flood damages with extensive cross-island flow at many streets perpendicular to the shoreline. The objective of this work is to identify and quantify the sources of flooding using a two dimensional inland hydrodynamic model. The hydrodynamic model was forced by three observed coastal boundary conditions, and one hydrologic boundary condition from United States Geological Survey (USGS). The model reliability was evaluated with both FEMA spatial flooding extend and USGS High water marks. Simulated flooding extent showed good agreement with the reanalysis spatial inundation extents. Results offered important perspectives on the flow of the water into the bay, the velocity and the depth of the inundated areas. Using such information can enable emergency managers and decision makers identify evacuation and deploy flood defenses.

  8. Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry Milch

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Although the field has seen great advances in hurricane prediction and response, the economic toll from hurricanes on U.S. communities continues to rise. We present data from Hurricanes Earl (2010, Irene (2011, Isaac (2012, and Sandy (2012 to show that individual and household decisions contribute to this vulnerability. From phone surveys of residents in communities threatened by impending hurricanes, we identify five decision biases or obstacles that interfere with residents’ ability to protect themselves and minimize property damage: (1 temporal and spatial myopia, (2 poor mental models of storm risk, (3 gaps between objective and subjective probability estimates, (4 prior storm experience, and (5 social factors. We then discuss ways to encourage better decision making and reduce the economic and emotional impacts of hurricanes, using tools such as decision defaults (requiring residents to opt out of precautions rather than opt in and tailoring internet-based forecast information so that it is local, specific, and emphasizes impacts rather than probability.

  9. Toward better assessment of tornado potential in typhoons: Significance of considering entrainment effects for CAPE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sueki, Kenta; Niino, Hiroshi

    2016-12-01

    The characteristics of typhoons that spawned tornadoes (tornadic typhoons: TTs) in Japan from 1991 to 2013 were investigated by composite analysis using the Japanese 55 year Reanalysis and compared with those of typhoons that did not spawn tornadoes (nontornadic typhoons: NTs). We found that convective available potential energy (CAPE), which considers the effects of entrainment (entraining CAPE: E-CAPE), and storm-relative environmental helicity (SREH) are significantly large in the northeast quadrant of TTs where tornadoes frequently occur and that E-CAPE and SREH in that quadrant for TTs are larger than those for NTs. On the other hand, ordinary CAPE without entrainment does not account for the spatial distribution of tornado occurrences nor does it distinguish TTs from NTs. E-CAPE is sensitive to humidity in the midtroposphere; thus, it is effective for detecting a conditionally unstable layer up to about 550 hPa, which is distinctive of TTs.

  10. Impact of dual-polarization radar technology and Twitter on the Hattiesburg, Mississippi tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cates, Alexis L; Arnold, Brent W; Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Stake, Josh; Ali, Mohammed; Calderone, Richard C; Wilkinson, James; Hsu, Edbert; Parrillo, Steven; Piper, Steven; Subbarao, Italo

    2013-12-01

    Dual-Polarization Radar and Twitter were analyzed to determine the impact on injuries sustained by the Hattiesburg EF-4 tornado. Tracking data provided from the Dual-Pol radar systems in National Weather Service Jackson were reviewed. Twitter data from four local Twitter handles were obtained. The change in tweets and followers for the day of the storm were compared to historical averages. A Student t-test was utilized in determining statistical significance (ptornado. An Injury Severity Score (ISS) was calculated for trauma records related to the tornado. Radar detection of the tornado gave approximately 30 minutes of advanced warning time. Statistical significance in follower growth was seen in all four Twitter handles. Out of 50 patients, the average ISS was 3.9 with a range of 1 to 29. There were zero fatalities. An ISS average of 3.9 was significantly less than two previous tornadoes of similar strength that occurred prior to increased usage of Dual-pol radar and Twitter as a means for communicating severe weather information. Early detection from Dual-pol radar improved warning time. Tweets informed citizens to seek appropriate shelter. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2013;7:585-592).

  11. A Look Inside Hurricane Alma

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific started off with a whimper late last month as Alma, a Category 2 hurricane, slowly made its way up the coast of Baja California, packing sustained winds of 110 miles per hour and gusts of 135 miles per hour. The above image of the hurricane was acquired on May 29, 2002, and displays the rainfall rates occurring within the storm. Click the image above to see an animated data visualization (3.8 MB) of the interior of Hurricane Alma. The images of the clouds seen at the beginning of the movie were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's (NOAA's) Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite (GOES) network. As the movie continues, the clouds are peeled away to reveal an image of rainfall levels in the hurricane. The rainfall data were obtained by the Precipitation Radar aboard NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The Precipitation Radar bounces radio waves off of clouds to retrieve a reading of the number of large, rain-sized droplets within the clouds. Using these data, scientists can tell how much precipitation is occurring within and beneath a hurricane. In the movie, yellow denotes areas where 0.5 inches of rain is falling per hour, green denotes 1 inch per hour, and red denotes over 2 inches per hour. (Please note that high resolution still images of Hurricane Alma are available in the NASA Visible Earth in TIFF format.) Image and animation courtesy Lori Perkins, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

  12. Tornado Warning Perception and Response: Integrating the Roles of Visual Design, Demographics, and Hazard Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Ronald L; Ash, Kevin D; Bowser, Gregg C

    2018-02-01

    Recent advancements in severe weather detection and warning dissemination technologies have reduced, but not eliminated, large-casualty tornado hazards in the United States. Research on warning cognition and behavioral response by the public has the potential to further reduce tornado-related deaths and injuries; however, less research has been conducted in this area compared to tornado research in the physical sciences. Extant research in this vein tends to bifurcate. One branch of studies derives from classic risk perception, which investigates cognitive, affective, and sociocultural factors in relation to concern and preparation for uncertain risks. Another branch focuses on psychological, social, and cultural factors implicated in warning response for rapid onset hazards, with attention paid to previous experience and message design. Few studies link risk perceptions with cognition and response as elicited by specific examples of warnings. The present study unites risk perception, cognition, and response approaches by testing the contributions of hypothesized warning response drivers in one set of path models. Warning response is approximated by perceived fear and intended protective action as reported by survey respondents when exposed to hypothetical tornado warning scenarios. This study considers the roles of hazard knowledge acquisition, information-seeking behaviors, previous experience, and sociodemographic factors while controlling for the effects of the visual warning graphic. Findings from the study indicate the primacy of a user's visual interpretation of a warning graphic in shaping tornado warning response. Results also suggest that information-seeking habits, previous tornado experience, and local disaster culture play strong influencing roles in warning response. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. High Resolution Hurricane Storm Surge and Inundation Modeling (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luettich, R.; Westerink, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Coastal counties are home to nearly 60% of the U.S. population and industry that accounts for over 16 million jobs and 10% of the U.S. annual gross domestic product. However, these areas are susceptible to some of the most destructive forces in nature, including tsunamis, floods, and severe storm-related hazards. Since 1900, tropical cyclones making landfall on the US Gulf of Mexico Coast have caused more than 9,000 deaths; nearly 2,000 deaths have occurred during the past half century. Tropical cyclone-related adjusted, annualized losses in the US have risen from 1.3 billion from 1949-1989, to 10.1 billion from 1990-1995, and $35.8 billion per year for the period 2001-2005. The risk associated with living and doing business in the coastal areas that are most susceptible to tropical cyclones is exacerbated by rising sea level and changes in the characteristics of severe storms associated with global climate change. In the five years since hurricane Katrina devastated the northern Gulf of Mexico Coast, considerable progress has been made in the development and utilization of high resolution coupled storm surge and wave models. Recent progress will be presented with the ADCIRC + SWAN storm surge and wave models. These tightly coupled models use a common unstructured grid in the horizontal that is capable of covering large areas while also providing high resolution (i.e., base resolution down to 20m plus smaller subgrid scale features such as sea walls and levees) in areas that are subject to surge and inundation. Hydrodynamic friction and overland winds are adjusted to account for local land cover. The models scale extremely well on modern high performance computers allowing rapid turnaround on large numbers of compute cores. The models have been adopted for FEMA National Flood Insurance Program studies, hurricane protection system design and risk analysis, and quasi-operational forecast systems for several regions of the country. They are also being evaluated as

  14. Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, Antonia; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi

    2017-12-01

    During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%-19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5-5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston’s flood protection system.

  15. A Space-Based Perspective of the 2017 Hurricane Season from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skofronick Jackson, G.; Petersen, W. A.; Huffman, G. J.; Kirschbaum, D.; Wolff, D. B.; Tan, J.; Zavodsky, B.

    2017-12-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission collected unique, near real time 3-D satellite-based views of hurricanes in 2017 together with estimated precipitation accumulation using merged satellite data for scientific studies and societal applications. Central to GPM is the NASA-JAXA GPM Core Observatory (CO). The GPM-CO carries an advanced dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and a well-calibrated, multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer that together serve as an on orbit reference for precipitation measurements made by the international GPM satellite constellation. GPM-CO overpasses of major Hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Ophelia revealed intense convective structures in DPR radar reflectivity together with deep ice-phase microphysics in both the eyewalls and outer rain bands. Of considerable scientific interest, and yet to be determined, will be DPR-diagnosed characteristics of the rain drop size distribution as a function of convective structure, intensity and microphysics. The GPM-CO active/passive suite also provided important decision support information. For example, the National Hurricane Center used GPM-CO observations as a tool to inform track and intensity estimates in their forecast briefings. Near-real-time rainfall accumulation from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) was also provided via the NASA SPoRT team to Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria when ground-based radar systems on the island failed. Comparisons between IMERG, NOAA Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor data, and rain gauge rainfall accumulations near Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey revealed spatial biases between ground and IMERG satellite estimates, and a general underestimation of IMERG rain accumulations associated with infrared observations, collectively illustrating the difficulty of measuring rainfall in hurricanes.GPM data continue to advance scientific research on tropical cyclone intensification and structure, and contribute to

  16. Estimating cellular network performance during hurricanes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booker, Graham; Torres, Jacob; Guikema, Seth; Sprintson, Alex; Brumbelow, Kelly

    2010-01-01

    Cellular networks serve a critical role during and immediately after a hurricane, allowing citizens to contact emergency services when land-line communication is lost and serving as a backup communication channel for emergency responders. However, due to their ubiquitous deployment and limited design for extreme loading events, basic network elements, such as cellular towers and antennas are prone to failures during adverse weather conditions such as hurricanes. Accordingly, a systematic and computationally feasible approach is required for assessing and improving the reliability of cellular networks during hurricanes. In this paper we develop a new multi-disciplinary approach to efficiently and accurately assess cellular network reliability during hurricanes. We show how the performance of a cellular network during and immediately after future hurricanes can be estimated based on a combination of hurricane wind field models, structural reliability analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and cellular network models and simulation tools. We then demonstrate the use of this approach for assessing the improvement in system reliability that can be achieved with discrete topological changes in the system. Our results suggest that adding redundancy, particularly through a mesh topology or through the addition of an optical fiber ring around the perimeter of the system can be an effective way to significantly increase the reliability of some cellular systems during hurricanes.

  17. A study on the regionalization of tornadogenesis for the domestic largest scale of tornado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, Soichiro; Nohara, Daisuke; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

    2014-01-01

    A new regulatory guide has been issued by the Nuclear Regulation Authority of Japan since the last year. According to this guide, electric power companies have to assess the influence of tornadoes on their nuclear power plants for operation. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the likelihood of the occurrence of F3 tornadoes, which are the largest encountered in Japan, and to consider the possibility of the regionalization of the maximum wind speed. Then, mesoscale analysis with a numerical meteorological model and re-analysis data is performed along with synoptic scale analysis. Especially, tornado parameters such as SReH (Storm Relative Helicity) and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) are used for evaluating the potential tornadogenesis of F3 tornado. Both analyses indicate that favorable meteorological condition tends to occur in the coastal zones in the Pacific side west of Ibaraki and around Kyushu island. The frequency in these zones is different from the one in the other area in the order of 1 or 2, which is large enough for regionalization. (author)

  18. Effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on the chemistry of bottom sediments in Lake Pontchartrain, La.: Chapter 7F in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Metre, Peter C.; Horowitz, Arthur J.; Mahler, Barbara J.; Foreman, William T.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Burkhardt, Mark R.; Elrick, Kent A.; Furlong, Edward T.; Skrobialowski, Stanley C.; Smith, James J.; Wilson, Jennifer T.; Zaugg, Stephen D.

    2007-01-01

    Concerns about the effect of pumping contaminated flood waters into Lake Pontchartrain following the hurricanes of 2005 prompted the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to sample street mud, canal-suspended sediment, and bottom sediment in Lake Pontchartain. The samples were analyzed for a wide variety of potential inorganic and organic contaminants. Results indicate that contamination of lake sediment relative to other urban lakes and to accepted sedimentquality guidelines was limited to a relatively small area offshore from the Metairie Outfall Canal (popularly known as the 17th Street Canal) and that this contamination is probably transient.

  19. 7 CFR 701.50 - 2005 hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false 2005 hurricanes. 701.50 Section 701.50 Agriculture... ADMINISTERED UNDER THIS PART § 701.50 2005 hurricanes. In addition benefits elsewhere allowed by this part, claims related to calendar year 2005 hurricane losses may be allowed to the extent provided for in §§ 701...

  20. An Examination of Hurricane Emergency Preparedness Planning at Institutions of Higher Learning of the Gulf South Region Post Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura, Caterina Gulli

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine hurricane emergency preparedness planning at institutions of higher learning of the Gulf South region following Hurricane Katrina. The problem addressed the impact of Hurricane Katrina on decision-making and policy planning processes. The focus was on individuals that administer the hurricane emergency…

  1. Assessment of the Public Health Risks and Impact of a Tornado in Funing, China, 23 June 2016: A Retrospective Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kaiwen; Zhong, Shuang; Wang, Xiaoye; Wang, Zhe; Yang, Lianping; Wang, Qiong; Wang, Suhan; Sheng, Rongrong; Ma, Rui; Lin, Shao; Liu, Wenyu; Zu, Rongqiang; Huang, Cunrui

    2017-10-10

    (1) Background: Tornadoes are one of the deadliest disasters but their health impacts in China are poorly investigated. This study aimed to assess the public health risks and impact of an EF-4 tornado outbreak in Funing, China; (2) Methods: A retrospective analysis on the characteristics of tornado-related deaths and injuries was conducted based on the database from the Funing's Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Funing People's Hospital. A change-point time-series analysis of weekly incidence for the period January 2010 to September 2016 was used to identify sensitive infectious diseases to the tornado; (3) Results: The 75 to 84 years old group was at the highest risk of both death (RR = 82.16; 95% CIs = 19.66, 343.33) and injury (RR = 31.80; 95% CI = 17.26, 58.61), and females were at 53% higher risk of death than males (RR = 1.53; 95% CIs = 1.02, 2.29). Of the 337 injuries, 274 injuries (81%) were minor. Most deaths occurred indoors (87%) and the head (74%) was the most frequent site of trauma during the tornado. Five diseases showed downward change-points; (4) Conclusions: The experience of the Funing tornado underscores the relative danger of being indoors during a tornado and is successful in avoiding epidemics post-tornado. Current international safety guidelines need modification when generalized to China.

  2. Assessment of the Public Health Risks and Impact of a Tornado in Funing, China, 23 June 2016: A Retrospective Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaiwen Wang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available (1 Background: Tornadoes are one of the deadliest disasters but their health impacts in China are poorly investigated. This study aimed to assess the public health risks and impact of an EF-4 tornado outbreak in Funing, China; (2 Methods: A retrospective analysis on the characteristics of tornado-related deaths and injuries was conducted based on the database from the Funing’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC and Funing People’s Hospital. A change-point time-series analysis of weekly incidence for the period January 2010 to September 2016 was used to identify sensitive infectious diseases to the tornado; (3 Results: The 75 to 84 years old group was at the highest risk of both death (RR = 82.16; 95% CIs = 19.66, 343.33 and injury (RR = 31.80; 95% CI = 17.26, 58.61, and females were at 53% higher risk of death than males (RR = 1.53; 95% CIs = 1.02, 2.29. Of the 337 injuries, 274 injuries (81% were minor. Most deaths occurred indoors (87% and the head (74% was the most frequent site of trauma during the tornado. Five diseases showed downward change-points; (4 Conclusions: The experience of the Funing tornado underscores the relative danger of being indoors during a tornado and is successful in avoiding epidemics post-tornado. Current international safety guidelines need modification when generalized to China.

  3. Residential tornado safe room from commodity wood products – impact and wind pressure testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert H. Falk; James J. Bridwell; C. Adam Senalik; Marshall Begel

    2018-01-01

    A tornado safe room is a shelter designed to provide protection during a tornado and is specifically engineered to resist the high wind pressures and debris impact generated by these high wind events. The required performance criteria of these shelters has been established and is found in the International Code Council Standard for the Design and Construction of Storm...

  4. Space geodesy: subsidence and flooding in New Orleans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Timothy H; Amelung, Falk; Ferretti, Alessandro; Novali, Fabrizio; Rocca, Fabio; Dokka, Roy; Sella, Giovanni; Kim, Sang-Wan; Wdowinski, Shimon; Whitman, Dean

    2006-06-01

    It has long been recognized that New Orleans is subsiding and is therefore susceptible to catastrophic flooding. Here we present a new subsidence map for the city, generated from space-based synthetic-aperture radar measurements, which reveals that parts of New Orleans underwent rapid subsidence in the three years before Hurricane Katrina struck in August 2005. One such area is next to the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MRGO) canal, where levees failed during the peak storm surge: the map indicates that this weakness could be explained by subsidence of a metre or more since their construction.

  5. Tornado detection data reduction and analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davisson, L. D.

    1977-01-01

    Data processing and analysis was provided in support of tornado detection by analysis of radio frequency interference in various frequency bands. Sea state determination data from short pulse radar measurements were also processed and analyzed. A backscatter simulation was implemented to predict radar performance as a function of wind velocity. Computer programs were developed for the various data processing and analysis goals of the effort.

  6. Hurricane Katrina impacts on Mississippi forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonja N. Oswalt; Christopher Oswalt; Jeffery Turner

    2008-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina triggered public interest and concern for forests in Mississippi that required rapid responses from the scientific community. A uniform systematic sample of 3,590 ground plots were established and measured in 687 days immediately after the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast. The hurricane damaged an estimated 521 million trees with more...

  7. Ventilation systems analysis during tornado conditions. Progress report, January--June 1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, G.A.; Gregory, W.S.; Smith, P.R.

    1975-11-01

    The principal concern of this investigation is to develop the capability to simulate the dynamic effects of a tornado depressurization on a ventilation system. The basic formulation and solution of the two-zone series model ventilation subsystem is based on lumped parameter component response equations, the isothermal compression of air, and the conservation of mass. Solutions based on these assumptions are also presented for the two-zone series model with natural bypass, the two-zone series model with recirculation, and the natural branching model. A parameter study is presented comparing the effects of changes in system resistance, system capacitance, and variable tornado depressurization rates. The adaptability of the basic formulation to adiabatic compression of air and the addition of duct resistance is examined. A quasi-steady formulation is introduced and preliminary considerations of the importance of inertia are presented. Preliminary conclusions in this area indicate that inertial effects can be neglected. For relatively long ducts slow shock development appears possible. Work on the effect of tornado depressurization rates as related to shock development and on the importance of inertia effects is continuing

  8. Digital inventory of landslides and related deposits in Honduras triggered by Hurricane Mitch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harp, Edwin L.; Hagaman, Kirk W.; Held, Matthew D.; McKenna, Jonathan P.

    2002-01-01

    Intense rainfall from Hurricane Mitch from October 27-31, 1998, exceeded 900 mm in places in Honduras and triggered in excess of 500,000 landslides throughout the country. Landslides damaged an estimated 70% of the road network in Honduras based on estimates by the U. S Army Corps of Engineers. Numbers of fatalities due to landslides are not accurately known due to the fact that numerous small villages throughout Honduras lost residents to landslides without an official count being recorded. A conservative estimate would place the number at near 1,000. Debris flows accounted for over 95% of the landslides and ranged in thickness from 1 to 15 m. Flow path lengths of these failures ranged from several meters to 7.5 km. The highest concentrations of debris flows occurred in the mountains near the town of Choluteca where over 900 mm of rain fell in three days. Although landslides other than debris flows were few, several deep-seated landslides in the city of Tegucigalpa severely impacted people and property. The 'El Berrinche' rotational slump/earth flow of approximately six million cubic meters volume destroyed the entire neighborhood of Colonia Soto near the center of the city. The landslide also dammed the Rio Choluteca and created a lagoon behind the landslide dam, which immediately posed a health problem for the city, because raw, untreated sewage was emptying into the Rio Choluteca. Several areas of highly concentrated landslides have been responsible for much of the flooding problem as well. Huge sediment influxes from landslide source areas near La Ceiba, La Libertad, Marale, and in several arms of El Cajon Reservoir have reduced stream capacities to practically nothing and have exacerbated flooding conditions in even the moderate rainfall seasons since Hurricane Mitch. The ongoing hazard to communities from landslides triggered during Hurricane Mitch are being analyzed using aerial photography taken by the U.S. Air Force and by supplemental photography taken

  9. Safety and design impact of hurricane Andrew

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guey, Ching N.

    2004-01-01

    Turkey Point completed the IPE in June of 1991. Hurricane Andrew landed at Turkey Point on August 24, 1992. Although the safety related systems, components and structures were not damaged by the Hurricane Andrew, certain nonsafety related components and the neighboring fossil plant sustained noticeable damage. Among the major components that were nonsafety related but would affect the PRA of the plant included the service water pumps and the high tower. This paper discusses the safety and design impact of Hurricane Andrew on Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant. The risk of hurricanes on the interim and evolving plant configurations are briefly described. The risk of the plant from internal events as a result of damage incurred during Hurricane Andrew are discussed. The design change as the result of Hurricane Andrew and its impact on the PRA are presented. (author)

  10. Continental United States Hurricane Strikes

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...

  11. Massive pediatric neurosurgical injuries and lessons learned following a tornado disaster in Alabama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chern, Joshua J; Miller, Joseph H; Tubbs, R Shane; Whisenhunt, Thomas R; Johnston, James M; Wellons, John C; Rozzelle, Curtis J; Blount, Jeffrey P; Oakes, W Jerry

    2011-12-01

    A large volume of patients presented to a Level I pediatric trauma center during and after a recent tornado disaster. Injuries of the central and peripheral nervous systems and the medical responses of a pediatric neurosurgical team are reviewed. The clinical courses of patients who suffered cranial, spinal, and peripheral nerve injuries due to the tornado storm are reported. The clinical actions taken by the neurosurgical team during and after the event are reviewed and the lessons learned are discussed. The tornado storm system moved through the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham metropolitan areas on the early evening hours of April 27, 2011. Twenty-four patients received care from the neurosurgical team. A total of 11 cranial (including placement of an external ventricular drain), 2 spine, and 2 peripheral procedures were performed for the victims. Nine procedures were performed within the first 12 hours of the event, and an additional 6 surgeries were performed in the following 24 hours. Injuries of the peripheral nervous system often presented in a delayed fashion. Several key components were identified that enabled adequate neurosurgical care for a large influx of acute patients. Massive casualties due to tornados are rare. A well-organized physician team working with the hospital administration may decrease the mortality and morbidity of such events.

  12. 75 FR 54918 - Draft Regulatory Guide, DG-1247, “Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-09

    .... This series was developed to describe and make available to the public such information as methods that... maximum hurricane windspeeds for hurricanes that originate in the Atlantic and make landfall along the... connected and provides an aerodynamic sail area on which the wind can act. An automobile hurricane missile...

  13. Identification of Caribbean basin hurricanes from Spanish documentary sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Herrera, R. [Depto. Fisica de la Tierra II, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Gimeno, L. [Universidad de Vigo, Ourense (Spain); Ribera, P.; Gonzalez, E.; Fernandez, G. [Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla (Spain); Hernandez, E. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (Spain)

    2007-07-15

    This paper analyses five hurricanes that occurred in the period 1600 to 1800. These examples were identified during a systematic search in the General Archive of the Indies (AGI) in Seville. The research combined the expertise of climatologists and historians in order to optimise the search and analysis strategies. Results demonstrate the potential of this archive for the assessment of hurricanes in this period and show some of the difficulties involved in the collection of evidence of hurricane activity. The documents provide detailed descriptions of a hurricane's impacts and allow us to identify previously unreported hurricanes, obtain more precise dates for hurricanes previously identified, better define the area affected by a given hurricane and, finally, better assess a hurricane's intensity.

  14. Ecohydrological Responses to Hurricane Harvey across South-Central Texas a Multidisciplinary Approach of the Texas Water Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaimes, A.; Gaur, N.; Aparecido, L. M. T.; Everett, M. E.; Knappett, P.; Lawing, M.; Majumder, S.; Miller, G. R.; Moore, G. W.; Morgan, C.; Mitra, B.; Noormets, A.; Mohanty, B.

    2017-12-01

    The unprecedented destructive hurricane Harvey struck eastern Texas from August 25th to 29th, 2017. As the hurricane moved through the region, it dropped the equivalent of one year of precipitation within a five-day period, with peak accumulations near 165 cm. Rainfall intensity and distribution varied across the region but Harris County and portions of the lower Brazos River Basin experienced devastating flooding due to high run-off and water accumulation in the built-up area. In this study, we use a multidisciplinary approach to quantify the dynamics of carbon and water flux at different spatiotemporal resolution across land types both in and outside of the path of hurricane Harvey using a combination of remote sensing and fixed monitoring platforms of the Texas Water Observatory (TWO). We used LANDSAT imagery to compute Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and Normalized Difference Moisture Index. MODIS ET, GPP, and sap flow data were used in combination with eddy covariance and meteorological data from seven sites of the TWO representative of biomes ranging from low tidal salt marsh of the Gulf Coastal Plain, Shrubland, Improved Pasture, Mixed and Native Prairies, and Crop sites. We hypothesize alteration in ecohydrological characteristics across land types, which were in the path of hurricane due to changes in vegetation structure. Specifically we used trend analysis to detect structural changes in temporal dynamics of sap flow, ET, and carbon to pulse response. In addition, we monitored trace metal concentration of soil and water pores before and immediately after the hurricane in order to predict the potential of any of the toxic metal (loid)s being mobilized in the natural water resources as a function of the changes in the redox gradient. Preliminary results indicated that tree water use was reduced on average 30% below normal days. Porewater concentration of some of the metal (loid) concentration increased (Fe, Mn, Co, As, Sb, Pb

  15. Tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... How to Guides to Protect Your Property or Business from High Winds (PDF) American Red Cross (link) Related Active Shooter Avalanche Bioterrorism Chemical Emergencies Cybersecurity Drought Earthquakes Emergency Alerts Explosions Extreme Heat Floods ...

  16. Volatile organic compounds emitted by filamentous fungi isolated from flooded homes after Hurricane Sandy show toxicity in a Drosophila bioassay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, G; Yin, G; Inamdar, A A; Luo, J; Zhang, N; Yang, I; Buckley, B; Bennett, J W

    2017-05-01

    Superstorm Sandy provided an opportunity to study filamentous fungi (molds) associated with winter storm damage. We collected 36 morphologically distinct fungal isolates from flooded buildings. By combining traditional morphological and cultural characters with an analysis of ITS sequences (the fungal DNA barcode), we identified 24 fungal species that belong to eight genera: Penicillium (11 species), Fusarium (four species), Aspergillus (three species), Trichoderma (two species), and one species each of Metarhizium, Mucor, Pestalotiopsis, and Umbelopsis. Then, we used a Drosophila larval assay to assess possible toxicity of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted by these molds. When cultured in a shared atmosphere with growing cultures of molds isolated after Hurricane Sandy, larval toxicity ranged from 15 to 80%. VOCs from Aspergillus niger 129B were the most toxic yielding 80% mortality to Drosophila after 12 days. The VOCs from Trichoderma longibrachiatum 117, Mucor racemosus 138a, and Metarhizium anisopliae 124 were relatively non-toxigenic. A preliminary analysis of VOCs was conducted using solid-phase microextraction-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry from two of the most toxic, two of the least toxic, and two species of intermediate toxicity. The more toxic molds produced higher concentrations of 1-octen-3-ol, 3-octanone, 3-octanol, 2-octen-1-ol, and 2-nonanone; while the less toxic molds produced more 3-methyl-1-butanol and 2-methyl-1-propanol, or an overall lower amount of volatiles. Our data support the hypothesis that at certain concentrations, some VOCs emitted by indoor molds are toxigenic. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Predicting hurricane wind damage by claim payout based on Hurricane Ike in Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Myong Kim

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasing occurrence of natural disasters and their related damage have led to a growing demand for models that predict financial loss. Although considerable research on the financial losses related to natural disasters has found significant predictors, there has been a lack of comprehensive study that addresses the relationship among vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and the economic losses of individual buildings. This study identifies the vulnerability indicators for hurricanes to establish a metric to predict the related financial loss. We classify hurricane-prone areas by highlighting the spatial distribution of losses and vulnerabilities. This study used a Geographical Information System (GIS to combine and produce spatial data and a multiple regression method to establish a wind damage prediction model. As the dependent variable, we used the value of the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA claim payout divided by the appraised values of the buildings to predict real economic loss. As independent variables, we selected a hurricane indicator and built environment vulnerability indicators. The model we developed can be used by government agencies and insurance companies to predict hurricane wind damage.

  18. Regeneration of coastal marsh vegetation impacted by hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, B.A.

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of plant regeneration via seed and vegetative spread in coastal wetlands dictate the nature of community reassembly that takes place after hurricanes or sea level rise. The objectives of my project were to evaluate the potential effects of saltwater intrusion and flooding of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on seedling regeneration in coastal wetlands of the Gulf Coast. Specifically I tested hypotheses to determine for species in fresh, brackish and salt marshes of the Gulf Coast if 1) the pattern of seed germination and seedling recruitment differed with distance from the shoreline, and 2) seed germination and seedling recruitment for various species were reduced in higher levels of water depth and salinity. Regarding Hypothesis 1, seedling densities increased with distance from the shoreline in fresh and brackish water marshes while decreasing with distance from the shoreline in salt marshes. Also to test Hypothesis 1, I used a greenhouse seed bank assay to examine seed germination from seed banks collected at distances from the shoreline in response to various water depths and salinity levels using a nested factorial design. For all marsh types, the influence of water level and salinity on seed germination shifted with distance from the shoreline (i.e., three way interaction of the main effects of distance nested within site, water depth, and salinity). Data from the seed bank assay were also used to test Hypothesis 2. The regeneration of species from fresh, brackish, and salt marshes were reduced in conditions of high salinity and/or water, so that following hurricanes or sea level rise, seedling regeneration could be reduced. Among the species of these coastal marshes, there was some flexibility of response, so that at least some species were able to germinate in either high or low salinity. Salt marshes had a few fresher marsh species in the seed bank that would not germinate without a period of fresh water input (e.g., Sagittaria lancifolia) as well

  19. Estimating flood discharge using witness movies in post-flood hydrological surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Coz, Jérôme; Hauet, Alexandre; Le Boursicaud, Raphaël; Pénard, Lionel; Bonnifait, Laurent; Dramais, Guillaume; Thollet, Fabien; Braud, Isabelle

    2015-04-01

    surveys were achieved. Identifying fixed GCPs is more difficult in rural environments than in urban areas. Image processing was performed using free software only, especially Fudaa-LSPIV (Le Coz et al., 2014) was used for steps (v), (vi), and (vii). The results illustrate the typical issues and advantages of flood home movies taken by witnesses for improving post-flood discharge estimation. In spite of the non-ideal conditions related to such movies, the LSPIV technique was successfully applied. Corrections for lens distortion and limited camera movements (shake) are not difficult to achieve. Locating precisely the video viewpoint is often easy whereas precise timing may be not, especially when the author cannot be contacted or when the camera clock is false. Based on sensitivity analysis, the determination of the water level appears to be the main source of uncertainty in the results. Nevertheless, the information content of the results remains highly valuable for post-flood studies, in particular for improving the high-flow extrapolation of hydrometric rating curves. This kind of application opens interesting avenues for participative research in flood hydrology, as well as the study of other extreme geophysical events. Typically, as part of the FloodScale ANR research project (2012-2015), specific communication actions have been focused on the determination of flood discharges within the Ardèche river catchement (France) using home movies shared by observers and volunteers. Safety instructions and a simplified field procedure were shared through local media and were made available in French and English on the project website. This way, simple flood observers or even some enthusiastic flood chasers can contribute to participative hydrological science in the same way the so-called storm chasers have significantly contributed to meteorological science since the Tornado Intercept Project (1972). Website : http

  20. Full-scale impact test data for tornado-missile design of nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephenson, A.E.; Sliter, G.E.

    1977-01-01

    It is standard practice to consider the effects of low-probability impacts of tornado-borne debris (''tornado missiles'' such as utility poles and steel pipes) in the structural design of nuclear power plants in the United States. To provide data that can be used directly in the design procedure, a series of full-scale tornado-missile impact tests was performed. This paper is a brief summary of the results and conclusions from these tests. The tests consisted of reinforced concrete panels impacted by poles, pipes, and rods propelled by a rocket sled. The panels were constructed to current minimum standards and had thicknesses typical of auxiliary buildings of nuclear power plants. A specific objective was the determination of the impact velocities below which the panels do not experience backface scabbing. Another objective was to assess the adequacy of (1) conventional design formulae for penetration and scabbing and (2) conventional design methods for overall structural response. Test missiles and velocities represented those in current design standards. Missiles included utility poles, steel pipes, and steel bars. It is important to interpret the data in this paper in recognition that the test conditions represent conservative assumptions regarding maximum wind speeds, injection of the missile into the wind stream, aerodynamic trajectory, and orientation of missile at impact. Even with the severe assumptions made, the full-scale tests described demonstrate the ability of prototypical nuclear plant walls and roofs to provide adequate protection against postulated tornado-missile impact

  1. Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F.

    2017-12-01

    Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%), which is larger than the 6-7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. In a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.

  2. Hurricane Isabel gives accelerators a severe test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swapan Chattopadhyay

    2004-01-01

    Hurricane Isabel was at category five--the most violent on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane strength--when it began threatening the central Atlantic seaboard of the US. Over the course of several days, precautions against the extreme weather conditions were taken across the Jefferson Lab site in south-east Virginia. On 18 September 2003, when Isabel struck North Carolina's Outer Banks and moved northward, directly across the region around the laboratory, the storm was still quite destructive, albeit considerably reduced in strength. The flood surge and trees felled by wind substantially damaged or even devastated buildings and homes, including many belonging to Jefferson Lab staff members. For the laboratory itself, Isabel delivered an unplanned and severe challenge in another form: a power outage that lasted nearly three-and-a-half days, and which severely tested the robustness of Jefferson Lab's two superconducting machines, the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) and the superconducting radiofrequency ''driver'' accelerator of the laboratory's free-electron laser. Robustness matters greatly for science at a time when microwave superconducting linear accelerators (linacs) are not only being considered, but in some cases already being built for projects such as neutron sources, rare-isotope accelerators, innovative light sources and TeV-scale electron-positron linear colliders. Hurricane Isabel interrupted a several-week-long maintenance shutdown of CEBAF, which serves nuclear and particle physics and represents the world's pioneering large-scale implementation of superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) technology. The racetrack-shaped machine is actually a pair of 500-600 MeV SRF linacs interconnected by recirculation arc beamlines. CEBAF delivers simultaneous beams at up to 6 GeV to three experimental halls. An imminent upgrade will double the energy to 12 GeV and add an extra hall for ''quark confinement'' studies. On a smaller scale

  3. Four hospitals in the path of killer tornadoes--what happened before ... during ... after.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrick, Joanne

    2012-01-01

    In mid-and late-April, late May, and early June of 2011, tornadoes swept across states in the Midwest, South, Southeast, and even New England, killing hundreds, injuring thousands, destroying property in the billions in both rural and urban areas. Some hospitals in areas where the tornadoes struck did not escape damage and one was destroyed. This article describes what happened at four hospitals in cities hardest hit by the storms and the many roles played by security officers.

  4. Hurricane Season: Are You Ready?

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Hurricanes are one of Mother Nature’s most powerful forces. Host Bret Atkins talks with CDC’s National Center for Environmental Health Director Dr. Chris Portier about the main threats of a hurricane and how you can prepare.

  5. Social justice in the context of adaptation to climate change – reflecting on different policy approaches to distribute and allocate flood risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven; Priest, Sally J.; Doorn, Neelke

    2018-01-01

    Editorial to a special edition of the journal. Consequences of extreme hydrological events, such as those recently experienced in United States (e.g. Hurricane Harvey or Irma in 2017), floods in South Asia in 2017, or the Central European floods in 2013 and 2016, have again focused the attention of society, policy makers and academic scholars on questions of how to reduce vulnerability to such events, especially when faced with the dual challenges of climate and societal change. Not only is t...

  6. Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to Modeling Tornado Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, M.; Doe, R. K.

    2017-12-01

    Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to assess storm damage is a useful research tool. Benefits include their ability to access remote or impassable areas post-storm, identify unknown damages and assist with more detailed site investigations and rescue efforts. Technological advancement of UAVs mean that they can capture high resolution images often at an affordable price. These images can be used to create 3D environments to better interpret and delineate damages from large areas that would have been difficult in ground surveys. This research presents the results of a rapid response site investigation of the 29 April 2017 Canton, Texas, USA, tornado using low cost UAVs. This was a multiple, high impact tornado event measuring EF4 at maximum. Rural farmland was chosen as a challenging location to test both equipment and methodology. Such locations provide multiple impacts at a variety of scales including structural and vegetation damage and even animal fatalities. The 3D impact models allow for a more comprehensive study prior to clean-up. The results show previously unseen damages and better quantify damage impacts at the local level. 3D digital track swaths were created allowing for a more accurate track width determination. These results demonstrate how effective the use of low cost UAVs can be for rapid response storm damage assessments, the high quality of data they can achieve, and how they can help us better visualize tornado site investigations.

  7. The effects of the April 2011 tornado outbreak on personal preparedness in Jefferson County, Alabama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Lisa C; Pevear, Jesse; Rucks, Andrew C; Ginter, Peter M

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of a tornado disaster on the personal preparedness of local residents to determine (1) to what extent the tornado outbreak experience had altered preparedness awareness, willingness to act, and levels of personal preparedness of residents as measured by possession of a preparedness kit; and (2) what effect this experience had on the variables associated with having a complete disaster preparedness kit. Two random digit-dialed surveys were completed following the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System protocols. The pre-tornado survey was conducted between October and December 2010 and the post-tornado survey was conducted between January and March 2012. After the April 2011 tornado outbreak, 86.08% of the respondents (n = 1364) reported that they had thought more about personal or family preparedness and 59.65% (n = 907) reported that they had taken actions to increase their level of preparedness. Overall, general awareness of preparedness media campaigns increased significantly (almost 24%; P < .0001), as did the percentage of those having a complete disaster preparedness kit (a 66% increase, not quite doubled from 2010 to 2012; P < .0001). Findings of the study indicate that the disaster had a significant impact on the local residents' (1) awareness of preparedness campaigns, (2) awareness of the need to be prepared, (3) willingness to become better prepared, and (4) possession of a disaster and emergency preparedness kit and its associated items.

  8. The political ecology of disaster: an analysis of factors influencing U.S. tornado fatalities and injuries, 1998-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, William R

    2007-08-01

    This study examines casualties from tornadoes in the United States between the years 1998 and 2000. A political model of human ecology (POET) was used to explore how the environment, technology, and social inequality influence rates of fatalities and injuries in two models. Data were drawn from four sources: John Hart's Severe Plot v2.0, National Weather Service (NWS) Warning Verification data, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) watch data, and tract-level census data. Negative binomial regression was used to analyze the causes of tornado fatalities and injuries. Independent variables (following POET) are classified in the following manner: population, organization, environment, and technology. Rural population, population density, and household size correspond to population; racial minorities and deprivation represent social organization; tornado area represents environment; and tornado watches and warnings, as well as mobile homes, correspond to technology. Findings suggest a strong relationship between the size of a tornado path and both fatalities and injuries, whereas other measures related to technology, population, and organization produce significant yet mixed results. Census tracts having larger populations of rural residents was, of the nonenvironmental factors, the most conclusive regarding its effects across the two models. The outcomes of analysis, although not entirely supportive of the model presented in this study, suggest to some degree that demographic and social factors play a role in vulnerability to tornadoes.

  9. Tornado risk analysis at Savannah River Plant using windspeed damage thresholds and single building strike frequencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, D.H.; McDonald, J.R.; Twisdale, L.A.

    1985-01-01

    Tornado risk analysis at the Savannah River Plant has taken a two pronged approach: (1) developing a catalogue of damage thresholds as a function of windspeed for processing buildings and other representative site structures; (2) developing a method of estimating, for each building, the probability of a tornado exceeding each damage threshold. Wind resistance of building construction at SRP varies widely depending on the function of the structure. It was recognized that all tornadoes do not necessarily seriously damage buildings, but the damage thresholds were unknown. In order to evaluate the safety of existing structures and properly design new structures, an analysis of tornado resistance was conducted by J.R. McDonald on each process building at SRP and other buildings by type. Damage estimates were catalogued for each Fujita class windspeed interval and windspeeds were catalogued as a function of increased levels of damage. Tornado single point and structure specific strike probabilities for the SRP site were determined by L.A. Twisdale using the TORRISK computer code. To calculate the structure specific strike probability, a correction factor is determined from a set of curves using building area and aspect ratio (length/width relative to north) as parameters. The structure specific probability is then the product of the correction factor and the point probability. The correction factor increases as a function of building size and windspeed. For large buildings (10 5 ft 2 ) and very intense storms (250 mph), the correction factor is equal to or greater than 4. The cumulative probability of a tornado striking any building type (process, personnel, etc.) was also calculated

  10. Okla. Tornado Renews Debate on Storm Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Nirvi

    2013-01-01

    As soon as the winds that left seven students in Moore, Okla., dead last month had calmed, and more storms blew through the same area less than two weeks later, questions about the safety of schools in a region labeled Tornado Alley rose amid the rubble. While better design of new schools and thorough emergency training and practice may be in…

  11. Investigation into the Formation, Structure, and Evolution of an EF4 Tornado in East China Using a High-Resolution Numerical Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Dan; Xue, Haile; Yin, Jinfang; Sun, Jisong; Liang, Xudong; Guo, Jianping

    2018-04-01

    Devastating tornadoes in China have received growing attention in recent years, but little is known about their formation, structure, and evolution on the tornadic scale. Most of these tornadoes develop within the East Asian monsoon regime, in an environment quite different from tornadoes in the U.S. In this study, we used an idealized, highresolution (25-m grid spacing) numerical simulation to investigate the deadly EF4 (Enhanced Fujita scale category 4) tornado that occurred on 23 June 2016 and claimed 99 lives in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province. A tornadic supercell developed in the simulation that had striking similarities to radar observations. The violent tornado in Funing County was reproduced, exceeding EF4 (74 m s-1), consistent with the on-site damage survey. It was accompanied by a funnel cloud that extended to the surface, and exhibited a double-helix vorticity structure. The signal of tornado genesis was found first at the cloud base in the pressure perturbation field, and then developed both upward and downward in terms of maximum vertical velocity overlapping with the intense vertical vorticity centers. The tornado's demise was found to accompany strong downdrafts overlapping with the intense vorticity centers. One of the interesting findings of this work is that a violent surface vortex was able to be generated and maintained, even though the simulation employed a free-slip lower boundary condition. The success of this simulation, despite using an idealized numerical approach, provides a means to investigate more historical tornadoes in China.

  12. Development of a design basis tornado and structural design criteria for Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's Site 300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, J.R.; Minor, J.E.; Mehta, K.C.

    1975-11-01

    Criteria are prescribed and guidance is provided for professional personnel who are involved with the evaluation of existing buildings and facilities at Site 300 near Livermore, California to resist the possible effects of extreme winds and tornadoes. The development of parameters for the effects of tornadoes and extreme winds and guidelines for evaluation and design of structures are presented. The investigations conducted are summarized and the techniques used for arriving at the combined tornado and extreme wind risk model are discussed. The guidelines for structural design methods for calculating pressure distributions on walls and roofs of structures and methods for accommodating impact loads from missiles are also presented

  13. Coastal and Riverine Flood Forecast Model powered by ADCIRC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalid, A.; Ferreira, C.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal flooding is becoming a major threat to increased population in the coastal areas. To protect coastal communities from tropical storms & hurricane damages, early warning systems are being developed. These systems have the capability of real time flood forecasting to identify hazardous coastal areas and aid coastal communities in rescue operations. State of the art hydrodynamic models forced by atmospheric forcing have given modelers the ability to forecast storm surge, water levels and currents. This helps to identify the areas threatened by intense storms. Study on Chesapeake Bay area has gained national importance because of its combined riverine and coastal phenomenon, which leads to greater uncertainty in flood predictions. This study presents an automated flood forecast system developed by following Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Surge Guidance System (ASGS) guidelines and tailored to take in riverine and coastal boundary forcing, thus includes all the hydrodynamic processes to forecast total water in the Potomac River. As studies on tidal and riverine flow interaction are very scarce in number, our forecast system would be a scientific tool to examine such area and fill the gaps with precise prediction for Potomac River. Real-time observations from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and field measurements have been used as model boundary feeding. The model performance has been validated by using major historical riverine and coastal flooding events. Hydrodynamic model ADCIRC produced promising predictions for flood inundation areas. As better forecasts can be achieved by using coupled models, this system is developed to take boundary conditions from Global WaveWatchIII for the research purposes. Wave and swell propagation will be fed through Global WavewatchIII model to take into account the effects of swells and currents. This automated forecast system is currently undergoing rigorous testing to include any missing parameters which

  14. Tornado missile simulation and design methodology. Volume 1: simulation methodology, design applications, and TORMIS computer code. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.

    1981-08-01

    A probabilistic methodology has been developed to predict the probabilities of tornado-propelled missiles impacting and damaging nuclear power plant structures. Mathematical models of each event in the tornado missile hazard have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated, time-history simulation methodology. The models are data based where feasible. The data include documented records of tornado occurrence, field observations of missile transport, results of wind tunnel experiments, and missile impact tests. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the risk probabilities. The methodology has been encoded in the TORMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific tornado missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and risk has been assessed for a hypothetical nuclear power plant design case study

  15. Emotional Reactions of Rescue Workers Following a Tornado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCammon, Susan L.; And Others

    Rescue and medical workers may be at risk for negative emotional experience following intervention efforts in disaster situations. To examine this possibility, 120 rescue and hospital personnel responded to a survey of their emotional reactions and coping behaviors 3 months after a devastating tornado. Twenty-eight subjects had been involved in…

  16. Storm Data Publication

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 'Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena' is a monthly publication containing a chronological listing, by state, of hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail,...

  17. Satellite Images and Aerial Photographs of the Effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barras, John A.

    2007-01-01

    Introduction Hurricane Katrina made landfall on the eastern coastline of Louisiana on August 29, 2005; Hurricane Rita made landfall on the western coastline of Louisiana on September 24, 2005. Comparison of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery acquired before and after the landfalls of Katrina and Rita and classified to identify land and water demonstrated that water area increased by 217 mi2 (562 km2) in coastal Louisiana as a result of the storms. Approximately 82 mi2 (212 km2) of new water areas were in areas primarily impacted by Hurricane Katrina (Mississippi River Delta basin, Breton Sound basin, Pontchartrain basin, and Pearl River basin), whereas 99 mi2 (256 km2) were in areas primarily impacted by Hurricane Rita (Calcasieu/Sabine basin, Mermentau basin, Teche/Vermilion basin, Atchafalaya basin, and Terrebonne basin). Barataria basin contained new water areas caused by both hurricanes, resulting in some 18 mi2 (46.6 km2) of new water areas. The fresh marsh and intermediate marsh communities' land areas decreased by 122 mi2 (316 km2) and 90 mi2 (233.1 km2), respectively, and the brackish marsh and saline marsh communities' land areas decreased by 33 mi2 (85.5 km2) and 28 mi2 (72.5 km2), respectively. These new water areas represent land losses caused by direct removal of wetlands. They also indicate transitory changes in water area caused by remnant flooding, removal of aquatic vegetation, scouring of marsh vegetation, and water-level variation attributed to normal tidal and meteorological variation between satellite images. Permanent losses cannot be estimated until several growing seasons have passed and the transitory impacts of the hurricanes are minimized. The purpose of this study was to provide preliminary information on water area changes in coastal Louisiana acquired shortly after the landfalls of both hurricanes (detectable with Landsat TM imagery) and to serve as a regional baseline for monitoring posthurricane wetland recovery. The land

  18. A diary of hurricane Hugo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Counts, C S

    1989-12-01

    Charleston, South Carolina was the recent victim of Hurricane Hugo. This article recalls the events that occurred before, during, and after the hurricane struck. The focus is on four outpatient dialysis units in that area. It is a story from which others may learn more about emergency preparedness.

  19. Elevated in-home sediment contaminant concentrations - the consequence of a particle settling-winnowing process from Hurricane Katrina floodwaters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashley, Nicholas A; Valsaraj, Kalliat T; Thibodeaux, Louis J

    2008-01-01

    Sediment samples were collected from two homes which were flooded in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in August 2005. The samples were analyzed for trace metals and semi-volatile organic compounds using techniques based on established EPA methods. The data showed higher concentrations of some metals and semi-volatile organic pollutants than reported in previous outdoor sampling events of soils and sediments. The Lake Pontchartrain sediments became resuspended during the hurricane, and this material subsequently was found in the residential areas of New Orleans following levee breaches. The clay and silt particles appear to be selectively deposited inside homes, and sediment contaminant concentrations are usually greatest within this fraction. Re-entry advisories based on outdoor sample concentration results may have under-predicted the exposure levels to homeowners and first responders. All contaminants found in the sediment sampled in this study have their origin in the sediments of Lake Pontchartrain and other localized sources.

  20. Hurricane Frances Poster (September 5, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Frances poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Frances over central Florida on September 5, 2004. Poster dimension is approximately...

  1. Assessment and control of an invasive aquaculture species: An update on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) in coastal Mississippi after Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schofield, Pamela J.; Slack, W. Todd; Peterson, Mark S.; Gregoire, Denise R.

    2007-01-01

    We provide information about the effects of Hurricane Katrina on populations of an invasive fish, the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) in southern Mississippi. By resampling areas surveyed before the storm, we attempted to determine whether the species expanded its range by moving with storm-related floods. Additionally, we used rotenone to eradicate individuals of this species at a hurricane-damaged aquaculture facility on the Mississippi coast. Although our survey was limited geographically, we did not find the species to occur beyond the aquaculture facility, other than in an adjacent bayou. Our rotenone treatment of the facility appeared effective with only a single O. niloticus being collected six weeks after the treatment. To reduce the spread of O. niloticus in the southeastern U.S., it is important to continue to control feral populations, work to eliminate vectors for dispersal, and continue monitoring their distribution.

  2. Land area change and fractional water maps in the Chenier Plain, Louisiana, following hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palaseanu-Lovejoy, M.; Kranenburg, C.; Brock, J. C.

    2009-12-01

    The objective of this study is to develop a fractional water map at 30-m resolution scale using QuickBird and/or IKONOS high-resolution imagery as dependent variable to investigate the impact of hurricane Rita in the Chenier Plain, Louisiana. Eleven different indices were tested to obtain a high-resolution land / water classification on QuickBird (acquired on 05/23/2003) and IKONOS (acquired on 03/25/2006) images. The percent area covered by water in the high resolution images varied from 22 to 26% depending on the index used , with the simple ratio index (red band / NIR band) accounting for the lowest percent and the blue ratio index (blue band / sum(all bands)) for the highest percent. Using the ERDAS NLCD (National Land Cover Data) Mapping tool module, 100, 000 stratified random sample points with minimum 1000 points per stratum were selected from the high resolution dependent variable as training information for the independent variable layers. The rules for the regression tree were created using the data mining software Rulequest Cubist v. 2.05. This information was used to generate a fractional water map for the entire Landsat scene. The increase in water areas of about 10 - 15% between 2003 to 2006, as well as temporary changes in the water - land configurations are attributed to remnant flooding and removal of aquatic vegetation caused by hurricane Rita, and water level variations caused by tidal and / or meteorological variations between the acquisition dates of the satellite images. This analysis can assist in monitoring post-hurricane wetland recovery and assess trends in land loss due to extreme storm events, although estimation of permanent land loss cannot be made until wetland areas have the opportunity to recover from hurricane impacts.

  3. Examining Hurricane Track Length and Stage Duration Since 1980

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fandrich, K. M.; Pennington, D.

    2017-12-01

    Each year, tropical systems impact thousands of people worldwide. Current research shows a correlation between the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and the changing climate. However, little is known about other prominent hurricane features. This includes information about hurricane track length (the total distance traveled from tropical depression through a hurricane's final category assignment) and how this distance may have changed with time. Also unknown is the typical duration of a hurricane stage, such as tropical storm to category one, and if the time spent in each stage has changed in recent decades. This research aims to examine changes in hurricane stage duration and track lengths for the 319 storms in NOAA's National Ocean Service Hurricane Reanalysis dataset that reached Category 2 - 5 from 1980 - 2015. Based on evident ocean warming, it is hypothesized that a general increase in track length with time will be detected, thus modern hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than past hurricanes. It is also expected that stage durations are decreasing with time so that hurricanes mature faster than in past decades. For each storm, coordinates are acquired at 4-times daily intervals throughout its duration and track lengths are computed for each 6-hour period. Total track lengths are then computed and storms are analyzed graphically and statistically by category for temporal track length changes. The stage durations of each storm are calculated as the time difference between two consecutive stages. Results indicate that average track lengths for Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes are increasing through time. These findings show that these hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than earlier Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes. In contrast, average track lengths for Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes are decreasing through time, showing less distance traveled than earlier decades. Stage durations for all Cat 2, 4 and 5 storms decrease through the decades but Cat 3 storms show a

  4. Necrotizing cutaneous mucormycosis after a tornado in Joplin, Missouri, in 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neblett Fanfair, Robyn; Benedict, Kaitlin; Bos, John; Bennett, Sarah D; Lo, Yi-Chun; Adebanjo, Tolu; Etienne, Kizee; Deak, Eszter; Derado, Gordana; Shieh, Wun-Ju; Drew, Clifton; Zaki, Sherif; Sugerman, David; Gade, Lalitha; Thompson, Elizabeth H; Sutton, Deanna A; Engelthaler, David M; Schupp, James M; Brandt, Mary E; Harris, Julie R; Lockhart, Shawn R; Turabelidze, George; Park, Benjamin J

    2012-12-06

    Mucormycosis is a fungal infection caused by environmentally acquired molds. We investigated a cluster of cases of cutaneous mucormycosis among persons injured during the May 22, 2011, tornado in Joplin, Missouri. We defined a case as a soft-tissue infection in a person injured during the tornado, with evidence of a mucormycete on culture or immunohistochemical testing plus DNA sequencing. We conducted a case-control study by reviewing medical records and conducting interviews with case patients and hospitalized controls. DNA sequencing and whole-genome sequencing were performed on clinical specimens to identify species and assess strain-level differences, respectively. A total of 13 case patients were identified, 5 of whom (38%) died. The patients had a median of 5 wounds (range, 1 to 7); 11 patients (85%) had at least one fracture, 9 (69%) had blunt trauma, and 5 (38%) had penetrating trauma. All case patients had been located in the zone that sustained the most severe damage during the tornado. On multivariate analysis, infection was associated with penetrating trauma (adjusted odds ratio for case patients vs. controls, 8.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1 to 69.2) and an increased number of wounds (adjusted odds ratio, 2.0 for each additional wound; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.2). Sequencing of the D1-D2 region of the 28S ribosomal DNA yielded Apophysomyces trapeziformis in all 13 case patients. Whole-genome sequencing showed that the apophysomyces isolates were four separate strains. We report a cluster of cases of cutaneous mucormycosis among Joplin tornado survivors that were associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Increased awareness of fungi as a cause of necrotizing soft-tissue infections after a natural disaster is warranted.

  5. Hurricane Isabel Poster (September 18, 2003)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Isabel poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Isabel making landfall on the North Carolina Outer Banks on September 18, 2003. Poster...

  6. Hurricane Sandy Poster (October 29, 2012)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Sandy poster. Multi-spectral image from Suomi-NPP shows Hurricane Sandy approaching the New Jersey Coast on October 29, 2012. Poster size is approximately...

  7. Hurricane Charley Poster (August 13, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Charley poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows a small but powerful hurricane heading toward southern Florida on August 13, 2004. Poster dimension...

  8. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems for Disaster Relief: Tornado Alley

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBusk, Wesley M.

    2009-01-01

    Unmanned aerial vehicle systems are currently in limited use for public service missions worldwide. Development of civil unmanned technology in the United States currently lags behind military unmanned technology development in part because of unresolved regulatory and technological issues. Civil unmanned aerial vehicle systems have potential to augment disaster relief and emergency response efforts. Optimal design of aerial systems for such applications will lead to unmanned vehicles which provide maximum potentiality for relief and emergency response while accounting for public safety concerns and regulatory requirements. A case study is presented that demonstrates application of a civil unmanned system to a disaster relief mission with the intent on saving lives. The concept utilizes unmanned aircraft to obtain advanced warning and damage assessments for tornados and severe thunderstorms. Overview of a tornado watch mission architecture as well as commentary on risk, cost, need for, and design tradeoffs for unmanned aerial systems are provided.

  9. Using Satellite Imagery to Identify Tornado Damage Tracks and Recovery from the April 27, 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Tony A.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Bell, Jordan R.

    2014-01-01

    Emergency response to natural disasters requires coordination between multiple local, state, and federal agencies. Single, relatively weak tornado events may require comparatively simple response efforts; but larger "outbreak" events with multiple strong, long-track tornadoes can benefit from additional tools to help expedite these efforts. Meteorologists from NOAA's National Weather Service conduct field surveys to map tornado tracks, assess damage, and determine the tornado intensity following each event. Moderate and high resolution satellite imagery can support these surveys by providing a high-level view of the affected areas. Satellite imagery could then be used to target areas for immediate survey or to corroborate the results of the survey after it is completed. In this study, the feasibility of using satellite imagery to identify tornado damage tracks was determined by comparing the characteristics of tracks observed from low-earth orbit to tracks assessed during the official NWS storm survey process. Of the 68 NWS confirmed centerlines, 24 tracks (35.3%) could be distinguished from other surface features using satellite imagery. Within each EF category, 0% of EF-0, 3% of EF-1, 50% of EF-2, 77.7% of EF-3, 87.5% of EF-4 and 100% of EF-5 tornadoes were detected. It was shown that satellite data can be used to identify tornado damage tracks in MODIS and ASTER NDVI imagery, where damage to vegetation creates a sharp drop in values though the minimum EF-category which can be detected is dependent upon the type of sensor used and underlying vegetation. Near-real time data from moderate resolution sensors compare favorably to field surveys after the event and suggest that the data can provide some value in the assessment process.

  10. Protecting Coastal Areas from Flooding by Injecting Solids into the Subsurface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germanovich, L. N.; Murdoch, L.

    2008-12-01

    Subsidence and sea level rise conspire to increase the risk of flooding in coastal cities throughout the world, and these processes were key contributors to the devastation of New Orleans by hurricane Katrina. Constructing levees and placing fill to raise ground elevations are currently the main options for reducing flooding risks in coastal areas, and both of these options have drawbacks. We suggest that hydromechanical injection of solid compounds suspended in liquid can be used to lift the ground surface and thereby expand the options for protecting such coastal cities as New Orleans, Venice, and Shanghai from flooding. These techniques are broadly related to hydraulic fracturing and compensation grouting, where solid compounds are injected as slurries and cause upward displacements at the ground surface. The equipment and logistics required for hydromechanical solid injection and ground lifting are readily available from current geotechnical and petroleum operations. Hydraulic fractures are routinely created in the upper tens of meters of sediments, where they are filled with a wide range of different proppants for environmental applications. At shallow depths, many of these fractures are sub-parallel to the ground surface and lift their overburden by a few mm to cm, although lifting is not the objective of these fractures. Much larger, vertical displacements, of the order of several meters, could be created in low-cohesion sediments over areas as large as square kilometers. This would be achieved as a result of multiple injections. Injecting solid particulates provides the benefits of a permanent displacement supported by the solids. We have demonstrated that hydraulic fractures will lift the ground surface at shallow depths in Texas near the Sabine River, where the geological setting is generally similar to that of New Orleans (and where, incidentally, hurricane Rita landed in 2005). In these regions, the soft surficial sediments are underlain by relatively

  11. Alabama Disasters: Leveraging NASA EOS to Explore the Environmental and Economic Impact of the April 27 Tornado Outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herdy, Claire; Luvall, Jeff

    2012-01-01

    The disastrous tornado outbreak in Alabama on April 27, 2011 greatly impacted the economy of the state. On record, the tornado outbreak was the second deadliest tornado outbreak in U.S. When considering the agricultural and value-added activities such as food and timber processing, farm inputs, manufacturing, transportation, and retail sales, the dollar value of Alabama agribusiness annually exceeds $40 billion (NASS, 2011). This research aims to examine how the timber and agriculture damage affected the state economy of Alabama and will be used to aid in long-term economic recovery. ASTER imagery was used along with ground-truthed NASS (National Agriculture Statistics Service) crop location records to verify the economic impact tornadoes had on the agricultural economy of the state. This swath damage can be calculated by correlating tornado path with NASS statistics on crop yield, precisely showing the fields affected and dollars lost to this disaster. Not only can this be executed manually using ENVI and ArcGIS, but also through the use of Python, a programming language that has the ability to automate the process, creating a product for initial damage assessment.

  12. 77 FR 4389 - In the Matter of Tornado Gold International Corp., Twin Faces East Entertainment Corp., Universal...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-27

    ... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [File No. 500-1] In the Matter of Tornado Gold International Corp., Twin Faces East Entertainment Corp., Universal Ice Blast, Inc., US Farms, Inc., US Microbics... concerning the securities of Tornado Gold International Corp. because it has not filed any periodic reports...

  13. Temporal Vulnerability and the Post-Disaster 'Window of Opportunity to Woo:' a Case Study of an African-American Floodplain Neighborhood after Hurricane Floyd in North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Daniel H

    2017-01-01

    After major flooding associated with Hurricane Floyd (1999) in North Carolina, mitigation managers seized upon the "window of opportunity" to woo residents to accept residential buyout offers despite sizable community resistance. I present a theoretical explanation of how post-crisis periods turn into "opportunities" based on a temporal referential theory that complements alternative explanations based on temporal coincidence, panarchy, and shock-doctrine theories. Results from fieldwork conducted from 2002 to 2004 illustrate how several temporal influences compromised collective calibration of "normalcy" in local cultural models, leading to an especially heightened vulnerability to collective surprise. Four factors particularly influenced this temporal vulnerability: 1) epistemological uncertainty of floodplain dynamics due to colonization; 2) cultural practices that maintained a casual amnesia; 3) meaning attributed to stochastic timing of floods; and 4) competitive impact of referential flood baseline attractors.

  14. Hurricane Jeanne Poster (September 25, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Jeanne poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Jeanne near Grand Bahama Island on September 25, 2004. Poster size is 34"x30".

  15. Development of a tornado safe room door from wood Products: door design and impact testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert H. Falk; James J. Bridwell

    2016-01-01

    In this study, a tornado safe room door built from wood products and steel sheeting was developed and impact-tested according to tornado safe room standards. Results indicate that an door constructed from as few as two sheets of 23/32-in. (18.26-mm) construction-grade plywood and overlaid with 18-gauge (0.05-in.- (1.27- mm-) thick) steel can pass the required impact...

  16. Full-scale Tornado-missile impact tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-04-01

    Initial tests with four types of hypothetical tornado-borne missiles impacting reinforced concrete panels have been completed. Panel thicknesses are typical of walls in nuclear power facilities. In the seven tests, the missiles were rocket propelled to velocities currently postulated as being attainable by debris in tornadoes. The objective of the 18-test program is to ascertain the vulnerability of test panels to penetration and backface scabbing. The four missile types being tested are: a 1500-pound 35-foot long utility pole, an 8-pound 1-inch Grade 60 reinforcing bar, a 78-pound 3-inch Schedule 40 pipe, and a 743-pound 12-inch Schedule 40 pipe. The test panels are 12, 18, and 24 inches thick with 15 by 15 foot free spans. They were constructed to current minimum ACI standards: 3000 psi design strength (actual strength about 3600 psi) and 0.2 percent reinforcing steel area each way, each face (actual area is about 0.27 percent with bars on 12-inch centers). The 12-inch pipe has been identified as the critical missile for design of nuclear facility walls under currently specified impact conditions. The utility poles splintered upon impact causing virtually no impact damage, and the 3-inch pipe and 1-inch rebar were comparatively ineffectual because of their light weight

  17. Hurricane impacts on a pair of coastal forested watersheds: implications of selective hurricane damage to forest structure and streamflow dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayakaran, A. D.; Williams, T. M.; Ssegane, H.; Amatya, D. M.; Song, B.; Trettin, C. C.

    2014-03-01

    Hurricanes are infrequent but influential disruptors of ecosystem processes in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Every southeastern forested wetland has the potential to be struck by a tropical cyclone. We examined the impact of Hurricane Hugo on two paired coastal South Carolina watersheds in terms of streamflow and vegetation dynamics, both before and after the hurricane's passage in 1989. The study objectives were to quantify the magnitude and timing of changes including a reversal in relative streamflow difference between two paired watersheds, and to examine the selective impacts of a hurricane on the vegetative composition of the forest. We related these impacts to their potential contribution to change watershed hydrology through altered evapotranspiration processes. Using over 30 years of monthly rainfall and streamflow data we showed that there was a significant transformation in the hydrologic character of the two watersheds - a transformation that occurred soon after the hurricane's passage. We linked the change in the rainfall-runoff relationship to a catastrophic change in forest vegetation due to selective hurricane damage. While both watersheds were located in the path of the hurricane, extant forest structure varied between the two watersheds as a function of experimental forest management techniques on the treatment watershed. We showed that the primary damage was to older pines, and to some extent larger hardwood trees. We believe that lowered vegetative water use impacted both watersheds with increased outflows on both watersheds due to loss of trees following hurricane impact. However, one watershed was able to recover to pre hurricane levels of evapotranspiration at a quicker rate due to the greater abundance of pine seedlings and saplings in that watershed.

  18. Shelf sediment transport during hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kehui; Mickey, Rangley C.; Chen, Qin; Harris, Courtney K.; Hetland, Robert D.; Hu, Kelin; Wang, Jiaze

    2016-05-01

    Hurricanes can greatly modify the sedimentary record, but our coastal scientific community has rather limited capability to predict hurricane-induced sediment deposition. A three-dimensional sediment transport model was developed in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to study seabed erosion and deposition on the Louisiana shelf in response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the year 2005. Sensitivity tests were performed on both erosional and depositional processes for a wide range of erosional rates and settling velocities, and uncertainty analysis was done on critical shear stresses using the polynomial chaos approximation method. A total of 22 model runs were performed in sensitivity and uncertainty tests. Estimated maximum erosional depths were sensitive to the inputs, but horizontal erosional patterns seemed to be controlled mainly by hurricane tracks, wave-current combined shear stresses, seabed grain sizes, and shelf bathymetry. During the passage of two hurricanes, local resuspension and deposition dominated the sediment transport mechanisms. Hurricane Katrina followed a shelf-perpendicular track before making landfall and its energy dissipated rapidly within about 48 h along the eastern Louisiana coast. In contrast, Hurricane Rita followed a more shelf-oblique track and disturbed the seabed extensively during its 84-h passage from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Louisiana-Texas border. Conditions to either side of Hurricane Rita's storm track differed substantially, with the region to the east having stronger winds, taller waves and thus deeper erosions. This study indicated that major hurricanes can disturb the shelf at centimeter to meter levels. Each of these two hurricanes suspended seabed sediment mass that far exceeded the annual sediment inputs from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers, but the net transport from shelves to estuaries is yet to be determined. Future studies should focus on the modeling of sediment exchange between

  19. Hurricane Hugo Poster (September 21, 1989)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Hugo poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-11 captures Hurricane Hugo slamming into South Carolina coast on September 21, 1989. Poster size is 36"x36".

  20. Hurricane Ivan Poster (September 15, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Ivan poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Ivan in the Gulf of Mexico on September 15, 2004. Poster size is 34"x30".