WorldWideScience

Sample records for hurricane surge study

  1. A high resolution study of a hurricane storm surge and inundation in Veracruz, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz García, Ovel; Zavala Hidalgo, Jorge; Douillet, Pascal

    2014-05-01

    Veracruz is the most populated city along the Mexican shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and also is the country's largest commercial port. In recent years the city has been affected by hurricanes of medium intensity that have provoked human casualties, property damaged and economic loss. Two of the most recent events were hurricane Karl (2010), which caused a storm surge and severe flooding, and hurricane Ernesto (2012). The purpose of this work is to study, based on high-resolution numerical simulations, scenarios of storm surge flooding using state-of-the-art open source numerical models: the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF), and the coupled models ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) for weather and storm surge hindcast, respectively. We also use topography high resolution data from LIDAR and bathymetry from GEBCO 30", the Mexican Navy and nautical charts from Electrical Federal Commission. We present the validation of the models evaluating several statistical parameters against measurements from Acoustic Data Current Profilers, pressure sensors, tide gauge and meteorological stations for these events. In the case of hurricane Karl, it made landfall 15 km north of Veracruz City, reducing the maximum surge along the city shoreline. The hurricane Ernesto made landfall 200 km southeast of the city, too far to have a significant impact. We did some numerical experiments slightly changing the trajectory, reported by the best track data, for these two hurricanes with the purpose of evaluating storm surge scenarios. The results shows that the worst storm surge cases were when the tracks of this hurricanes made landfall south of the city in the range of 30 to 60 km.

  2. Mapping and Visualization of Storm-Surge Dynamics for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesch, Dean B.

    2009-01-01

    The damages caused by the storm surges from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were significant and occurred over broad areas. Storm-surge maps are among the most useful geospatial datasets for hurricane recovery, impact assessments, and mitigation planning for future storms. Surveyed high-water marks were used to generate a maximum storm-surge surface for Hurricane Katrina extending from eastern Louisiana to Mobile Bay, Alabama. The interpolated surface was intersected with high-resolution lidar elevation data covering the study area to produce a highly detailed digital storm-surge inundation map. The storm-surge dataset and related data are available for display and query in a Web-based viewer application. A unique water-level dataset from a network of portable pressure sensors deployed in the days just prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall captured the hurricane's storm surge. The recorded sensor data provided water-level measurements with a very high temporal resolution at surveyed point locations. The resulting dataset was used to generate a time series of storm-surge surfaces that documents the surge dynamics in a new, spatially explicit way. The temporal information contained in the multiple storm-surge surfaces can be visualized in a number of ways to portray how the surge interacted with and was affected by land surface features. Spatially explicit storm-surge products can be useful for a variety of hurricane impact assessments, especially studies of wetland and land changes where knowledge of the extent and magnitude of storm-surge flooding is critical.

  3. Risk Assessment of Hurricane Storm Surge for Tampa Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

    2011-12-01

    Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States and many other coastal areas around the world. Risk assessment of current and future hurricane storm surge provides the basis for risk mitigation and related decision making. This study investigates the hurricane surge risk for Tampa Bay, located on the central west coast of Florida. Although fewer storms have made landfall in the central west Florida than in regions farther west in the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of U.S., Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge due to its geophysical features. It is surrounded by low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. Also, edge waves trapped on the west Florida shelf can propagate along the coastline and affect the sea level outside the area of a forced storm surge; Tampa Bay may be affected by storms traversing some distance outside the Bay. Moreover, when the propagation speed of the edge wave is close to that of a storm moving parallel to the coast, resonance may occur and the water elevation in the Bay may be greatly enhanced. Therefore, Tampa Bay is vulnerable to storms with a broad spectrum of characteristics. We apply a model-based risk assessment method to carry out the investigation. To estimate the current surge risk, we apply a statistical/deterministic hurricane model to generate a set of 1500 storms for the Tampa area, under the observed current climate (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) estimated from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. To study the effect of climate change, we use four climate models, CNRM-CM3, ECHAM, GFDL-CM2.0, and MIROC3.2, respectively, to drive the hurricane model to generate four sets of 1500 Tampa storms under current climate conditions (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) and another four under future climate conditions of the IPCC-AR4 A1B emission scenario (represented by 2081-2100 statistics). Then, we apply two hydrodynamic models, the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model and the Sea

  4. Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; Yu, Xiaoyong; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rinke, Annette; Cui, Xuefeng; Kravitz, Ben; Lenton, Andrew; Watanabe, Shingo; Ji, Duoying

    2015-10-26

    Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase by a factor of 2-7 for each degree of increase in mean global temperature. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 8 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those in RCP4.5, but sulphate injection would have to double between 2020 and 2070 to balance RCP 4.5 to nearly 10 Tg SO2 yr-1, with consequent implications for damage to stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent Generalized Extreme Value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges from 1923 and observed temperatures. The numbers of storm surge events as big as the one that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this is only marginally statistically significant. However, when sea level rise differences at 2070 between RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored in to coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5 year events and perhaps halved for 50 year surges.

  5. Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, John C; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; Yu, Xiaoyong; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rinke, Annette; Cui, Xuefeng; Kravitz, Ben; Lenton, Andrew; Watanabe, Shingo; Ji, Duoying

    2015-11-10

    Devastating floods due to Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However, the frequency of the most intense storms is likely to increase with rises in sea surface temperatures. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane Main Development Region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may mitigate hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using eight earth system model simulations of climate under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those temperature increases in the RCP4.5. However, sulfate injection would have to double (to nearly 10 teragrams of SO2 per year) between 2020 and 2070 to balance the RCP4.5, approximately the equivalent of a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 2 y, with consequent implications for stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent generalized extreme value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges and observed temperatures since 1923. The number of storm surge events as big as the one caused by the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this reduction is only marginally statistically significant. Nevertheless, when sea level rise differences in 2070 between the RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored into coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5-y events and about halved for 50-y surges.

  6. Coupled modeling of storm surge and coastal inundation: A case study in New York City during Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Jie; Lin, Ning; Yu, Dapeng

    2016-11-01

    In this paper, we describe a new method of modeling coastal inundation arising from storm surge by coupling a widely used storm surge model (ADCIRC) and an urban flood inundation model (FloodMap). This is the first time the coupling of such models is implemented and tested using real events. The method offers a flexible and efficient procedure for applying detailed ADCIRC storm surge modeling results along the coastal boundary (with typical resolution of ˜100 m) to FloodMap for fine resolution inundation modeling (Hurricane Sandy was simulated at both the city (New York City) and subregional (lower Manhattan) scales with various resolutions. Results obtained from the ADCIRC and coupled ADCIRC-FloodMap simulations were compared with the recorded (high water marks) and derived (inundation extent based on the planar method) data from FEMA. At the city scale, coupled ADCIRC-FloodMap modeling demonstrates improved prediction over ADCIRC modeling alone for both the extent and depth of inundation. The advantage of the coupled model is further illustrated in the subregional modeling, using a mesh resolution of 3 m which is substantially finer than the inland mesh resolution used by ADCIRC (>70 m). In further testing, we explored the effects of mesh resolution and roughness specification. Results agree with previous studies that fine resolution is essential for capturing intricate flow paths and connectivity in urban topography. While the specification of roughness is more challenging for urban environments, it may be empirically optimized. The successful coupling of ADCIRC and FloodMap models for fine resolution coastal inundation modeling unlocks the potential for undertaking large numbers of probabilistically based synthetic surge events for street-level risk analysis.

  7. Rapid Response Measurements of Hurricane Waves and Storm Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravois, U.

    2010-12-01

    Andrew (1992), Katrina (2005), and Ike (2008) are recent examples of extensive damage that resulted from direct hurricane landfall. Some of the worst damages from these hurricanes are caused by wind driven waves and storm surge flooding. The potential for more hurricane disasters like these continues to increase as a result of population growth and real estate development in low elevation coastal regions. Observational measurements of hurricane waves and storm surge play an important role in future mitigation efforts, yet permanent wave buoy moorings and tide stations are more sparse than desired. This research has developed a rapid response method using helicopters to install temporary wave and surge gauges ahead of hurricane landfall. These temporary installations, with target depths from 10-15 m and 1-7 km offshore depending on the local shelf slope, increase the density of measurement points where the worst conditions are expected. The method has progressed to an operational state and has successfully responded to storms Ernesto (2006), Noel (2007), Fay (2008), Gustav (2008), Hanna (2008) and Ike (2008). The temporary gauges are pressure data loggers that measure at 1 Hz continuously for 12 days and are post-processed to extract surge and wave information. For the six storms studied, 45 out of 49 sensors were recovered by boat led scuba diver search teams, with 43 providing useful data for an 88 percent success rate. As part of the 20 sensor Hurricane Gustav response, sensors were also deployed in lakes and bays inLouisiana, east of the Mississippi river delta. Gustav was the largest deployment to date. Generally efforts were scaled back for storms that were not anticipated to be highly destructive. For example, the cumulative total of sensors deployed for Ernesto, Noel, Fay and Hanna was only 20. Measurement locations for Gustav spanned over 800 km of exposed coastline from Louisiana to Florida with sensors in close proximity to landfall near Cocodrie

  8. A geospatial dataset for U.S. hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise vulnerability: Development and case study applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan C. Maloney

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of future sea-level rise for coastal communities are a priority concern arising from anthropogenic climate change. Here, previously published methods are scaled up in order to undertake a first pass assessment of exposure to hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts. Sea-level rise scenarios ranging from +0.50 to +0.82 m by 2100 increased estimates of the area exposed to inundation by 4–13% and 7–20%, respectively, among different Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity categories. Potential applications of these hazard layers for vulnerability assessment are demonstrated with two contrasting case studies: potential exposure of current energy infrastructure in the U.S. Southeast and exposure of current and future housing along both the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Estimates of the number of Southeast electricity generation facilities potentially exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 69 to 291 for category 1 and category 5 storms, respectively. Sea-level rise increased the number of exposed facilities by 6–60%, depending on the sea-level rise scenario and the intensity of the hurricane under consideration. Meanwhile, estimates of the number of housing units currently exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 4.1 to 9.4 million for category 1 and category 4 storms, respectively, while exposure for category 5 storms was estimated at 7.1 million due to the absence of landfalling category 5 hurricanes in the New England region. Housing exposure was projected to increase 83–230% by 2100 among different sea-level rise and housing scenarios, with the majority of this increase attributed to future housing development. These case studies highlight the utility of geospatial hazard information for national-scale coastal exposure or vulnerability assessment as well as the importance of future socioeconomic development in the assessment of coastal vulnerability.

  9. Physical attributes of hurricane surges and their role in surge warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irish, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    In the last decade, the US has experienced some of its largest surges and hurricane-related damages on record. Effective evacuation in advance of a hurricane strike requires accurate estimation of the hurricane surge hazard that effectively conveys risk not only to government decision makers but also to the general public. Two primary challenges exist with the current structure for surge warning. First, existing computational methods for developing accurate, quantitative surge forecasts, namely surge height and inundation estimation, are limited by time and computational resources. Second, due primarily to the popularity and wide use of the Saffir-Simpson wind scale to convey the complete hurricane hazard, the public's perception of surge hazard is inaccurate. Here, we use dimensionless scaling and hydrodynamics arguments to quantify the influence of hurricane variables and regional geographic characteristics on the surge response. It will be shown that hurricane surge primarily scales with the hurricane's central pressure, and size and with continental shelf width at the landfall location (Irish et al. 2009, Nat. Haz.; Song et al. in press, Nat. Haz.). Secondary influences include the hurricane's forward speed and path. The developed physical scaling is applied in two ways: (1) as a means for expanding the utility of computational simulations for real-time surge height forecasting and (2) as a means to convey relative surge hazard via a readily evaluated algebraic surge scale. In the first application, the use of this physical scaling to develop surge response functions (SRF) enables instantaneous algebraic calculation of maximum surge height at any location of interest for any hurricane meteorological condition, without loss of accuracy gained via high-resolution computational simulation. When coupled with joint probability statistics, the use of SRFs enables rapid development of continuous probability density functions for probabilistic surge forecasting (Irish

  10. Linkage of Rainfall-Runoff and Hurricane Storm Surge in Galveston Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deitz, R.; Christian, J.; Wright, G.; Fang, N.; Bedient, P.

    2012-12-01

    In conjunction with the SSPEED Center, large rainfall events in the upper Gulf of Mexico are being studied in an effort to help design a surge gate to protect the Houston Ship Channel during hurricane events. The ship channel is the world's second largest petrochemical complex and the Coast Guard estimates that a one-month closure would have a $60 billion dollar impact on the national economy. In this effort, statistical design storms, such as the 24-hour PMP, as well as historical storms, like Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Katrina, and Hurricane Rita, are being simulated in a hydrologic/hydraulic model using radar and rain gauge data. VfloTM, a distributed hydrologic model, is being used to quantify the effect that storm size, intensity, and location has on timing and peak flows in the in the upper drainage area. These hydrographs were input to a hydraulic model with various storm surges from Galveston Bay. Results indicate that there is a double peak phenomenon with flows from the west draining days earlier than flows from the north. With storm surge typically lasting 36-48 hours, this indicates the flows from the west are interacting with the storm surge, whereas flows from the north would arrive once the storm surge is receding. Gate operations were optimized in the model to account for the relative timing of upland runoff and hurricane surge, and to quantify the capability of the gate structure to protect the Ship Channel industry.

  11. Mitigation of hurricane storm surge impacts: Modeling scenarios over wide continental shelves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima Rego, Joao; Li, Chunyan

    2010-05-01

    The improvement of present understanding of surge dynamics over wide and shallow shelves is vital for the improvement of our ability to forecast storm surge impacts to coastal regions, particularly the low-lying land areas that are most vulnerable to hurricane flooding (e.g. the Northern Gulf of Mexico, coastal Bangladesh, the Southeast China sea). Given the increase of global sea-surface temperature, both the total number and proportion of intense tropical cyclones have increased notably since 1970 (Emanuel, 2005; Nature). Therefore, more intense hurricanes may hit densely populated coastal regions, and this problem may be aggravated by the prospect of accelerated sea-level rise in the 21st century. This presentation offers a review of recent work on hurricane-induced storm surge. The finite-volume coastal ocean model ("FVCOM", by Chen et al., 2003; J. Atmos. Ocean Tech.) was applied to the storm surge induced by Hurricanes Rita and Ike along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas in 2005 and 2008, respectively, to study coastal storm surge dynamics. The sensitivity analysis of Rego and Li (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett.) demonstrated how stronger, wider or faster tropical cyclones would affect coastal flooding. Li, Weeks and Rego (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett) looked into how hurricane flooding and receding dynamics differ, concluding that the overland flow in the latter stage is of considerable importance. Rego and Li (2010; J. Geophys. Res.) showed how extreme events may result of a combination of non-extreme factors, by studying the nonlinear interaction of tide and hurricane surge. The ability of models to reproduce these extreme events and to proactive plan for damage reduction is covered in Rego and Li's (2010; J. Marine Syst.) study of how barrier island systems protect coastal bays from offshore surge propagation. Here we combine these results for a wider perspective on how hurricane flooding could be mitigated under changing conditions.

  12. The influence of coastal wetlands on hurricane surge in Corpus Christi, TX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, C.; Irish, J. L.; Olivera, F.

    2010-12-01

    The State of Texas has historically faced hurricane-related damage episodes, with Ike being the most recent example. It is expected that, in the future, hurricanes will intensify due to climate change causing greater surges, while the attenuating effect of wetlands on storm surges will also be modified due to sea level rise changes in wetland vegetation type and spatial location. Numerical analysis of storm surges is an important instrument to predict and simulate flooding extent and magnitude in coastal areas. Most operational surge models account for the influence of wetlands and other vegetation by momentum loss due to friction at the bottom and by reduction of imposed wind stress. A coupled hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) and wave model (SWAN) was employed, and wetlands were characterized using Manning’s n, surface canopy, and surface roughness. The wetlands parameters were developed from: 1) the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 1992 and 2001; 2) the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) 2001. The calibrated coupled model for two historical hurricanes, Bret and Beulah, was used to simulate the storm surge for each scenario. Preliminary results for the sensitivity analyses, for hurricane Bret, comparing the scenarios with parameters developed from NLCD and NWI datasets with four hypothetical scenarios considering very high and low Manning’s n and wind stress (surface canopy) values showed that, for areas inside Nueces Bay, the storm surge high could vary up to four times depending on the parameter selection, for areas inside Corpus Christi Bay, the storm surge high varied around three times and behind the barrier island the storm surge high variation was less than three times. This study is a first step for an evaluation of the impact that sea level rise, climate changed wetlands, wetlands restoration, land use change, and wetlands degradation have on hurricane related surge elevation and extent in the city of Corpus Christi.

  13. Reconnaissance level study Mississippi storm surge barrier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Ledden, M.; Lansen, A.J.; De Ridder, H.A.J.; Edge, B.

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports a reconnaissance level study of a storm surge barrier in the Mississippi River. Historical hurricanes have shown storm surge of several meters along the Mississippi River levees up to and upstream of New Orleans. Future changes due to sea level rise and subsidence will further

  14. Reconnaissance level study Mississippi storm surge barrier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Ledden, M.; Lansen, A.J.; De Ridder, H.A.J.; Edge, B.

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports a reconnaissance level study of a storm surge barrier in the Mississippi River. Historical hurricanes have shown storm surge of several meters along the Mississippi River levees up to and upstream of New Orleans. Future changes due to sea level rise and subsidence will further inc

  15. High Resolution Hurricane Storm Surge and Inundation Modeling (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luettich, R.; Westerink, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Coastal counties are home to nearly 60% of the U.S. population and industry that accounts for over 16 million jobs and 10% of the U.S. annual gross domestic product. However, these areas are susceptible to some of the most destructive forces in nature, including tsunamis, floods, and severe storm-related hazards. Since 1900, tropical cyclones making landfall on the US Gulf of Mexico Coast have caused more than 9,000 deaths; nearly 2,000 deaths have occurred during the past half century. Tropical cyclone-related adjusted, annualized losses in the US have risen from 1.3 billion from 1949-1989, to 10.1 billion from 1990-1995, and $35.8 billion per year for the period 2001-2005. The risk associated with living and doing business in the coastal areas that are most susceptible to tropical cyclones is exacerbated by rising sea level and changes in the characteristics of severe storms associated with global climate change. In the five years since hurricane Katrina devastated the northern Gulf of Mexico Coast, considerable progress has been made in the development and utilization of high resolution coupled storm surge and wave models. Recent progress will be presented with the ADCIRC + SWAN storm surge and wave models. These tightly coupled models use a common unstructured grid in the horizontal that is capable of covering large areas while also providing high resolution (i.e., base resolution down to 20m plus smaller subgrid scale features such as sea walls and levees) in areas that are subject to surge and inundation. Hydrodynamic friction and overland winds are adjusted to account for local land cover. The models scale extremely well on modern high performance computers allowing rapid turnaround on large numbers of compute cores. The models have been adopted for FEMA National Flood Insurance Program studies, hurricane protection system design and risk analysis, and quasi-operational forecast systems for several regions of the country. They are also being evaluated as

  16. Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Butler, T.

    2012-07-01

    Accurate, real-time forecasting of coastal inundation due to hurricanes and tropical storms is a challenging computational problem requiring high-fidelity forward models of currents and water levels driven by hurricane-force winds. Despite best efforts in computational modeling there will always be uncertainty in storm surge forecasts. In recent years, there has been significant instrumentation located along the coastal United States for the purpose of collecting data—specifically wind, water levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the use of ensemble Kalman filters and the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model is described. The singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter has been shown to be effective at producing accurate results for ocean models using small ensemble sizes initialized by an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The SEIK filter is applied to the ADCIRC model to improve storm surge forecasting, particularly in capturing maximum water levels (high water marks) and the timing of the surge. Two test cases of data obtained from hindcast studies of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina are presented. It is shown that a modified SEIK filter with an inflation factor improves the accuracy of coarse-resolution forecasts of storm surge resulting from hurricanes. Furthermore, the SEIK filter requires only modest computational resources to obtain more accurate forecasts of storm surge in a constrained time window where forecasters must interact with emergency responders.

  17. The value of wetlands in protecting southeast louisiana from hurricane storm surges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward B Barbier

    Full Text Available The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.

  18. Monitoring Inland Storm Surge and Flooding from Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

    2006-01-01

    Pressure transducers (sensors) and high-water marks were used to document the inland water levels related to storm surge generated by Hurricane Rita in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. On September 22-23, 2005, an experimental monitoring network of sensors was deployed at 33 sites over an area of about 4,000 square miles to record the timing, extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding. Sensors were programmed to record date and time, temperature, and barometric or water pressure. Water pressure was corrected for changes in barometric pressure and salinity. Elevation surveys using global-positioning systems and differential levels were used to relate all storm-surge water-level data, reference marks, benchmarks, sensor measuring points, and high-water marks to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). The resulting data indicated that storm-surge water levels over 14 feet above NAVD 88 occurred at three locations, and rates of water-level rise greater than 5 feet per hour occurred at three locations near the Louisiana coast.

  19. Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Inundation for Categories 2 and 4

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The file geodatabase (fgdb) contains the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Maximum of Maximums (MOM) model for hurricane categories 2 and 4. The...

  20. Assessment of Coastal Communities' Vulnerability to Hurricane Surge under Climate Change via Probabilistic Map - A Case Study of the Southwest Coast of Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, X.; Shen, S.

    2014-12-01

    The US coastline, over the past few years, has been overwhelmed by major storms including Hurricane Katrina (2005), Ike (2008), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). Supported by a growing and extensive body of evidence, a majority of research agrees hurricane activities have been enhanced due to climate change. However, the precise prediction of hurricane induced inundation remains a challenge. This study proposed a probabilistic inundation map based on a Statistically Modeled Storm Database (SMSD) to assess the probabilistic coastal inundation risk of Southwest Florida for near-future (20 years) scenario considering climate change. This map was processed through a Joint Probability Method with Optimal-Sampling (JPM-OS), developed by Condon and Sheng in 2012, and accompanied by a high resolution storm surge modeling system CH3D-SSMS. The probabilistic inundation map shows a 25.5-31.2% increase in spatially averaged inundation height compared to an inundation map of present-day scenario. To estimate climate change impacts on coastal communities, socioeconomic analyses were conducted using both the SMSD based probabilistic inundation map and the present-day inundation map. Combined with 2010 census data and 2012 parcel data from Florida Geographic Data Library, the differences of economic loss between the near-future and present day scenarios were used to generate an economic exposure map at census block group level to reflect coastal communities' exposure to climate change. The results show that climate change induced inundation increase has significant economic impacts. Moreover, the impacts are not equally distributed among different social groups considering their social vulnerability to hazards. Social vulnerability index at census block group level were obtained from Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute. The demographic and economic variables in the index represent a community's adaptability to hazards. Local Moran's I was calculated to identify the clusters

  1. Deriving spatial and temporal patterns of coastal marsh aggradation from hurricane storm surge marker beds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodge, Joshua; Williams, Harry

    2016-12-01

    This study uses storm surge sediment beds deposited by Hurricanes Audrey (1957), Carla (1961), Rita (2005) and Ike (2008) to investigate spatial and temporal changes in marsh sedimentation on the McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge in Southeastern Texas. Fourteen sediment cores were collected along a transect extending 1230 m inland from the Gulf coast. Storm-surge-deposited sediment beds were identified by texture, organic content, carbonate content, the presence of marine microfossils and 137Cs dating. The hurricane-derived sediment beds facilitate assessment of changes in marsh sedimentation from nearshore to inland locations and over decadal to annual timescales. Spatial variation along the transect reflects varying contributions from three prevailing sediment sources: flooding, overwash and organic sedimentation from marsh plants. Over about the last decade, hurricane overwash has been the predominant sediment source for nearshore locations because of large sediment inputs from Hurricanes Rita and Ike. Farther inland, hurricane inputs diminish and sedimentation is dominated by deposition from flood waters and a larger organic component. Temporal variations in sedimentation reflect hurricane activity, changes in marsh surface elevation and degree of compaction of marsh sediments, which is time-dependent. There was little to no marsh sedimentation in the period 2008-2014, firstly because no hurricanes impacted the study area and secondly because overwash sedimentation prior to 2008 had increased nearshore marsh surface elevations by up to 0.68 m, reducing subsequent inputs from flooding. Marsh sedimentation rates were relatively high in the period 2005-2008, averaging 2.13 cm/year and possibly reflecting sediment contributions from Hurricanes Humberto and Gustav. However, these marsh sediments are highly organic and largely uncompacted. Older, deeper marsh deposits formed between 1961 and 2005 are less organic-rich, more compacted and have an average annual

  2. Impacts of land cover changes on hurricane storm surge in the lower Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denton, M.; Lawler, S.; Ferreira, C.

    2013-12-01

    The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States with more than 150 rivers draining into the bay's tidal wetlands. Coastal wetlands and vegetation play an important role in shaping the hydrodynamics of storm surge events by retaining water and slowing the propagation of storm surge. In this way coastal wetlands act as a natural barrier to inland flooding, particularly against less intense storms. Threats to wetlands come from both land development (residential or commercial/industrial) and sea level rise. The lower region of the Chesapeake Bay near its outlet is especially vulnerable to flooding from Atlantic storm surge brought in by hurricanes, tropical storms and nor'easters (e.g., hurricanes Isabel [2003] and Sandy [2012]). This region is also intensely developed with nearly 1.7 million residents within the greater Hampton Roads metropolitan area. Anthropogenic changes to land cover in the lower bay can directly impact basin drainage and storm surge propagation with impacts reaching beyond the immediate coastal zone to affect flooding in inland areas. While construction of seawall barriers around population centers may provide storm surge protection to a specifically defined area, these barriers deflect storm surge rather than attenuate it, underscoring the importance of wetlands. To analyze these impacts a framework was developed combining numerical simulations with a detailed hydrodynamic characterization of flow through coastal wetland areas. Storm surges were calculated using a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) coupled to a wave model (SWAN) forced by an asymmetric hurricane vortex model using the FEMA region 3 unstructured mesh (2.3 million nodes) under a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. Multiple model simulations were performed using historical hurricanes data and hypothetical storms to compare the predicted storm surge inundation with various levels of wetland reduction and/or beach hardening. These data were combined and overlaid

  3. Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Inundation for Categories 2 and 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    The file geodatabase (fgdb) contains the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Maximum of Maximums (MOM) model for hurricane categories 2 and 4. The EPA Office of Research & Development (ORD) modified the original model from NOAA to fit the model parameters for the Buzzards Bay region. The models show storm surge extent for the Mattapoisett area and therefore the flooding area was reduced to the study area. Areas of flooding that were not connected to the main water body were removed. The files in the geodatabase are:Cat2_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 2 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 4 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR4_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Future Category 4 hurricane with 4 feet sea level riseThe features support the Weather Ready Mattapoisett story map, which can be accessed via the following link:https://epa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=1ff4f1d28a254cb689334799d94b74e2

  4. Past, Present, and Future Sea Level Change Assessments of Storm Surge: A Case Study Using Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclonic conditions. Further, it is generally agreed that global sea levels due to climate change will rise anywhere from 18 to 100 cm by the year 2100 (Donoghue, 2011, IPCC, 2007) with some projecting even higher. Further, it is recognized that coastal Mississippi is highly susceptible to a retreating shoreline from sea level rise coupled with predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms from an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (Trenberth, 2005, Webster, et al., 2005). A fully-validated, state-of-the-art ADCIRC+UnSWAN hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past and future sea level changes were simulated. A regression was performed at local tide gauges to estimate past and project future sea levels. Also, surface roughness (i.e. Manning's n and wind reduction factors) was adjusted to reflect past landcover conditions as well as estimate future landcover change. Here, past, present and future sea level scenarios are modeled using a dynamic approach, along with Hurricane Katrina, and compared to present dynamic responses to sea level rise. The dynamic results will be compared and contrasted with a simpler bathtub model (static) approach. It will be demonstrated that water levels do not change linearly with modeled sea level cases (i.e. a 50 cm rise in sea level will not result in an additional 50 cm of water level at a given location) and are highly variable to changes in local conditions (e.g. topography, bathymetry, and surface roughness). Further, nearshore wind-wave conditions are affected by changes in local sea level due to the changes in momentum transfer from the

  5. Effect of Coupling Wave and Flow Dynamics on Hurricane Surge and Inundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    impacted hurricanes - both by the wind fields as well as by the accompanying surge. Forecasting the extent of the inundation is critical for local...estimate local surge hazards; and in the other, ensemble model runs are used to determine surge values from a set of parameterized storms [Irish et...with the storm surge to create the storm tide. The extent of coastal inundation - flooding of inland surface that is not normally submerged, is

  6. Effect of hurricane paths on storm surge response at Tianjin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xingru; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou

    2012-06-01

    A hurricane induced storm surge simulation system was developed for Tianjin coast, which consists of a hurricane model and a storm surge model. The peak storm surge result of the simulation agreed well with that of the observation. Three observed paths (Rita, Mimie and WINNIE) and a hypothetical path (Rita2) were chosen as the selective hurricane paths according to their positions relative to Tianjin. The sensitivity of Tianjin storm surge to the four paths was investigated using the validated storm surge simulation system. Three groups of experiments were done. In group one, the models were forced by the wind field and air pressure; in group two and three the models were forced by the wind only and the air pressure only respectively. In the experiments, the hurricane moved with a fixed speed and an intensity of 50 year return period. The simulation results show that path of the type Rita2 is the easiest to cause storm surge disaster in Tianjin, and the effect of air pressure forcing is most evident for path of the type Rita in Tianjin storm surge process. The above conclusions were analyzed through the evolution of the wind fields and the air pressure distributions. Comparing the experiment results of Group one, two and three, it can be seen that the storm surge is mainly induced by the wind forcing and the nonlinear interaction between the effect of wind forcing and air pressure forcing on the storm surge tends to weaken the storm surge.

  7. A numerical study of the impact of hurricane-induced storm surge on the Herbert Hoover Dike at Lake Okeechobee, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuepeng; Teng, Yi-Cheng; Kelly, David M.; Zhang, Keqi

    2016-12-01

    Hurricanes Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma passed over Lake Okeechobee, Florida, in September 2004 and October 2005, respectively. Strong winds caused a large surface seiche on the lake during all three storms. These storms resulted in erosion damage to the Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD) on Lake Okeechobee. In this paper, we use the Fully Adaptive Storm Tide (FAST) model (Kelly et al. in Coast Eng J 57(4):1-30, 2015, Nat Hazards 83:53-74, 2016) to study the response of the lake (in terms of the water level fluctuations and induced currents) to hurricanes Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma. Comparisons of the modeled surface water level with the observations are in overall good agreement for all three hurricanes. The modeled results suggest that the strong currents induced by the storm winds may be the dominant factor controlling the dike erosion observed at the lake side. The locations of erosion damage to the dike are consistent with the modeled high velocity zones during these three storms. In addition, numerical experiments have been conducted with eight hypothetical category 5 hurricanes approaching from different directions to investigate the erosion-prone zones related to high velocities in the vicinity of the dike. The results of the study should help to provide insight into vulnerable reaches of the HHD and inform flood control in the Okeechobee region.

  8. Data and numerical analysis of astronomic tides, wind-waves, and hurricane storm surge along the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Cox, A. T.; Salisbury, M.; Coggin, D.

    2016-05-01

    The northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) is a unique geophysical setting for complex tropical storm-induced hydrodynamic processes that occur across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Each hurricane includes its own distinctive characteristics and can cause unique and devastating storm surge when it strikes within the intricate geometric setting of the NGOM. While a number of studies have explored hurricane storm surge in the NGOM, few have attempted to describe storm surge and coastal inundation using observed data in conjunction with a single large-domain high-resolution numerical model. To better understand the oceanic and nearshore response to these tropical cyclones, we provide a detailed assessment, based on field measurements and numerical simulation, of the evolution of wind waves, water levels, and currents for Hurricanes Ivan (2004), Dennis (2005), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012), with focus on Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle coasts. The developed NGOM3 computational model describes the hydraulic connectivity among the various inlet and bay systems, Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, coastal rivers and adjacent marsh, and built infrastructure along the coastal floodplain. The outcome is a better understanding of the storm surge generating mechanisms and interactions among hurricane characteristics and the NGOM's geophysical configuration. The numerical analysis and observed data explain the ˜2 m/s hurricane-induced geostrophic currents across the continental shelf, a 6 m/s outflow current during Ivan, the hurricane-induced coastal Kelvin wave along the shelf, and for the first time a wealth of measured data and a detailed numerical simulation was performed and was presented for Isaac.

  9. Reconnaissance Level Studies on a Storm Surge Barrier for Flood Risk Reduction in the Houston-Galveston Bay

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Mooyaart, L.F.; Van Ledden, M.; Stoeten, K.J.; De Vries, P.A.L.; Lendering, K.T.; Van der Toorn, A.; Willems, A.

    2014-01-01

    The Houston - Galveston area is at significant risk from hurricane induced storm surges. This paper summarizes ongoing studies on flood risk reduction for the region. Firstly, based on a simplified probabilistic hurricane surge model , the return periods of surges within the bay have been estimated.

  10. Estimating tsunami inundation from hurricane storm surge predictions along the U.S. gulf coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pampell-Manis, Alyssa; Horrillo, Juan; Figlus, Jens

    2016-08-01

    Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coasts have been included in the U.S. Tsunami Warning System since 2005. While the tsunami risk for the GOM is low, tsunamis generated by local submarine landslides pose the greatest potential threat, as evidenced by several large ancient submarine mass failures identified in the northern GOM basin. Given the lack of significant historical tsunami evidence in the GOM, the potential threat of landslide tsunamis in this region is assessed from a worst-case scenario perspective based on a set of events including the large ancient failures and most likely extreme events determined by a probabilistic approach. Since tsunamis are not well-understood along the Gulf Coast, we investigate tsunami inundation referenced to category-specific hurricane storm surge levels, which are relatively well established along the Gulf Coast, in order to provide information for assessing the potential threat of tsunamis which is more understandable and accessible to emergency managers. Based on tsunami inundation studies prepared for the communities of South Padre Island, TX, Galveston, TX, Mobile, AL, Panama City, FL, and Tampa, FL, we identify regional trends of tsunami inundation in terms of modeled storm surge inundation. The general trends indicate that tsunami inundation can well exceed the level of storm surge from major hurricanes in open beachfront and barrier island regions, while more interior areas are less threatened. Such information can be used to better prepare for tsunami events as well as provide a preliminary estimate of tsunami hazard in locations where detailed tsunami inundation studies have not been completed.

  11. Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Judi, David R.; Leung, L. Ruby

    2016-06-23

    Coastal populations in the global tropics and sub-tropics are vulnerable to the devastating impacts of hurricane storm surge and this risk is only expected to rise under climate change. In this study, we address this issue for the U.S. Gulf and Florida coasts. Using the framework of Potential Intensity, observations and output from coupled climate models, we show that the future large-scale thermodynamic environment may become more favorable for hurricane intensification. Under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario and for the peak hurricane season months of August–October, we show that the mean intensities of Atlantic hurricanes may increase by 1.8–4.2 % and their lifetime maximum intensities may increase by 2.7–5.3 % when comparing the last two decades of the 20th and 21st centuries. We then combine our estimates of hurricane intensity changes with projections of sea-level rise to understand their relative impacts on future storm surge using simulations with the National Weather Service’s SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model for five historical hurricanes that made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Considering uncertainty in hurricane intensity changes and sea-level rise, our results indicate a median increase in storm surge ranging between 25 and 47 %, with changes in hurricane intensity increasing future storm surge by about 10 % relative to the increase that may result from sea level rise alone, with highly non-linear response of population at risk.

  12. Directional analysis of the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy 2012, with applications to Charleston, New Orleans, and the Philippines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl Drews

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy in late October 2012 drove before it a storm surge that rose to 4.28 meters above mean lower low water at The Battery in lower Manhattan, and flooded the Hugh L. Carey automobile tunnel between Brooklyn and The Battery. This study examines the surge event in New York Harbor using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF atmospheric model and the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave- Sediment Transport/Regional Ocean Modeling System (COAWST/ROMS. We present a new technique using directional analysis to calculate and display maps of a coastline's potential for storm surge; these maps are constructed from wind fields blowing from eight fixed compass directions. This analysis approximates the surge observed during Hurricane Sandy. The directional analysis is then applied to surge events at Charleston, South Carolina, New Orleans, Louisiana, and Tacloban City, the Philippines. Emergency managers could use these directional maps to prepare their cities for an approaching storm, on planning horizons from days to years.

  13. Directional analysis of the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy 2012, with applications to Charleston, New Orleans, and the Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drews, Carl; Galarneau, Thomas J

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy in late October 2012 drove before it a storm surge that rose to 4.28 meters above mean lower low water at The Battery in lower Manhattan, and flooded the Hugh L. Carey automobile tunnel between Brooklyn and The Battery. This study examines the surge event in New York Harbor using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model and the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave- Sediment Transport/Regional Ocean Modeling System (COAWST/ROMS). We present a new technique using directional analysis to calculate and display maps of a coastline's potential for storm surge; these maps are constructed from wind fields blowing from eight fixed compass directions. This analysis approximates the surge observed during Hurricane Sandy. The directional analysis is then applied to surge events at Charleston, South Carolina, New Orleans, Louisiana, and Tacloban City, the Philippines. Emergency managers could use these directional maps to prepare their cities for an approaching storm, on planning horizons from days to years.

  14. Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike waves, forerunner, and storm surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hope, M.E.; Westerink, J.J.; Kennedy, A.B.; Kerr, P.C.; Dietrich, J.C.; Dawson, C.; Bender, C.J.; Smith, J.M.; Jensen, R.E.; Zijlema, M.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Luettich, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Cardone, V.J.; Cox, A.T.; Pourtaheri, H.; Roberts, H.J.; Atkinson, J.H.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, H.J.; Westerink, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana-Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied w

  15. Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike waves, forerunner, and storm surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hope, M.E.; Westerink, J.J.; Kennedy, A.B.; Kerr, P.C.; Dietrich, J.C.; Dawson, C.; Bender, C.J.; Smith, J.M.; Jensen, R.E.; Zijlema, M.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Luettich, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Cardone, V.J.; Cox, A.T.; Pourtaheri, H.; Roberts, H.J.; Atkinson, J.H.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, H.J.; Westerink, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana-Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied w

  16. Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike waves, forerunner, and storm surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hope, M.E.; Westerink, J.J.; Kennedy, A.B.; Kerr, P.C.; Dietrich, J.C.; Dawson, C.; Bender, C.J.; Smith, J.M.; Jensen, R.E.; Zijlema, M.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Luettich, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Cardone, V.J.; Cox, A.T.; Pourtaheri, H.; Roberts, H.J.; Atkinson, J.H.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, H.J.; Westerink, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana-Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied

  17. Cumulative impacts of hurricanes on Florida mangrove ecosystems: Sediment deposition, storm surges and vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, T. J.; Anderson, G.H.; Balentine, K.; Tiling, G.; Ward, G.A.; Whelan, K.R.T.

    2009-01-01

    Hurricanes have shaped the structure of mangrove forests in the Everglades via wind damage, storm surges and sediment deposition. Immediate effects include changes to stem size-frequency distributions and to species relative abundance and density. Long-term impacts to mangroves are poorly understood at present. We examine impacts of Hurricane Wilma on mangroves and compare the results to findings from three previous storms (Labor Day, Donna, Andrew). Surges during Wilma destroyed ??? 1,250 ha of mangroves and set back recovery that started following Andrew. Data from permanent plots affected by Andrew and Wilma showed no differences among species or between hurricanes for stem mortality or basal area lost. Hurricane damage was related to hydro-geomorphic type of forest. Basin mangroves suffered significantly more damage than riverine or island mangroves. The hurricane by forest type interaction was highly significant. Andrew did slightly more damage to island mangroves. Wilma did significantly more damage to basin forests. This is most likely a result of the larger and more spatially extensive storm surge produced by Wilma. Forest damage was not related to amount of sediment deposited. Analyses of reports from Donna and the Labor Day storm indicate that some sites have recovered following catastrophic disturbance. Other sites have been permanently converted into a different ecosystem, namely intertidal mudflats. Our results indicate that mangroves are not in a steady state as has been recently claimed. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

  18. Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

    2010-01-01

    Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

  19. Monitoring Hurricane Rita Inland Storm Surge: Chapter 7J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Goree, Burl B.

    2007-01-01

    Pressure transducers (sensors) are accurate, reliable, and cost-effective tools to measure and record the magnitude, extent, and timing of hurricane storm surge. Sensors record storm-surge peaks more accurately and reliably than do high-water marks. Data collected by sensors may be used in storm-surge models to estimate when, where, and to what degree stormsurge flooding will occur during future storm-surge events and to calibrate and verify stormsurge models, resulting in a better understanding of the dynamics of storm surge.

  20. Monitoring Inland Storm Surge and Flooding From Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana, September 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Goree, Burl B.; Tollett, Roland W.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

    2008-01-01

    On August 29-31, 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a mobile monitoring network consisting of 124 pressure transducers (sensors) (figs. 1, 2) at 80 sites over an area of about 4,200 square miles to record the timing, extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall in southeastern Louisiana on September 1. One-hundred twenty-one sensors from 61 sites (fig. 3) were recovered. Thirty-seven sites from which sensors were recovered were in the New Orleans area, and the remaining 24 sites were distributed throughout southeastern Louisiana. Sites were categorized as surge (21), riverine flooding (18), anthropogenic (affected by the operation of gates or pumps) (17), or mixed/uncertain on the basis of field observations and the appearance of the water-level data (5).

  1. Predicting the Storm Surge Threat of Hurricane Sandy with the National Weather Service SLOSH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Forbes

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulations of the storm tide that flooded the US Atlantic coastline during Hurricane Sandy (2012 are carried out using the National Weather Service (NWS Sea Lakes and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH storm surge prediction model to quantify its ability to replicate the height, timing, evolution and extent of the water that was driven ashore by this large, destructive storm. Recent upgrades to the numerical model, including the incorporation of astronomical tides, are described and simulations with and without these upgrades are contrasted to assess their contributions to the increase in forecast accuracy. It is shown, through comprehensive verifications of SLOSH simulation results against peak water surface elevations measured at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA tide gauge stations, by storm surge sensors deployed and hundreds of high water marks collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, that the SLOSH-simulated water levels at 71% (89% of the data measurement locations have less than 20% (30% relative error. The RMS error between observed and modeled peak water levels is 0.47 m. In addition, the model’s extreme computational efficiency enables it to run large, automated ensembles of predictions in real-time to account for the high variability that can occur in tropical cyclone forecasts, thus furnishing a range of values for the predicted storm surge and inundation threat.

  2. Monitoring Inland Storm Surge and Flooding from Hurricane Ike in Texas and Louisiana, September 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    East, Jeffery W.; Turco, Michael J.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of 117 pressure transducers (sensors) at 65 sites over an area of about 5,000 square miles to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Ike, which struck southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana September 12-13, 2008. Fifty-six sites were in Texas and nine were in Louisiana. Sites were categorized as surge, riverine, or beach/wave on the basis of proximity to the Gulf Coast. One-hundred five sensors from 59 sites (fig. 1) were recovered; 12 sensors from six sites either were lost during the storm or were not retrieved. All 59 sites (41 surge, 10 riverine, 8 beach/wave) had sensors to record water pressure (fig. 2), which is expressed as water level in feet above North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD88), and 46 sites had an additional sensor to record barometric pressure, expressed in pounds per square inch. Figure 3 shows an example of water level and barometric pressure over time recorded by sensors during the storm.

  3. A Tsunami Ball Approach to Storm Surge and Inundation: Application to Hurricane Katrina, 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven N. Ward

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Most analyses of storm surge and inundation solve equations of continuity and momentum on fixed finite-difference/finite-element meshes. I develop a completely new approach that uses a momentum equation to accelerate bits or balls of water over variable depth topography. The thickness of the water column at any point equals the volume density of balls there. In addition to being more intuitive than traditional methods, the tsunami ball approach has several advantages. (a By tracking water balls of fixed volume, the continuity equation is satisfied automatically and the advection term in the momentum equation becomes unnecessary. (b The procedure is meshless in the finite-difference/finite-element sense. (c Tsunami balls care little if they find themselves in the ocean or inundating land. (d Tsunami ball calculations of storm surge can be done on a laptop computer. I demonstrate and calibrate the method by simulating storm surge and inundation around New Orleans, Louisiana caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and by comparing model predictions with field observations. To illustrate the flexibility of the tsunami ball technique, I run two “What If” hurricane scenarios—Katrina over Savannah, Georgia and Katrina over Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

  4. Lake Borgne Surge Barrier Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    Savant , and Darla C. McVan September 2010 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ERDC/CHL TR-10-10 September 2010 Lake...Borgne Surge Barrier Study S. Keith Martin, Gaurav Savant , and Darla C. McVan Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory U.S. Army Engineer Research and...conducted by Keith Martin, Dr. Gaurav Savant , and Darla C. McVan. This work was conducted at the Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (CHL) of the

  5. Comparing hurricane and extratropical storm surge for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coast of the United States for 1979-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, J. F.; Rieder, H. E.; Kushnir, Y.

    2016-09-01

    This letter examines the magnitude, spatial footprint, and paths of hurricanes and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) that caused strong surge along the east coast of the US between 1979 and 2013. Lagrangian cyclone track information, for hurricanes and ETCs, is used to associate surge events with individual storms. First, hurricane influence is examined using ranked surged events per site. The fraction of hurricanes among storms associated with surge decreases from 20%-60% for the top 10 events to 10%-30% for the top 50 events, and a clear latitudinal gradient of hurricane influence emerges for larger sets of events. Secondly, surges on larger spatial domains are examined by focusing on storms that cause exceedance of the probabilistic 1-year surge return level at multiple stations. Results show that if the strongest events in terms of surge amplitude and spatial extent are considered, then hurricanes are most likely to create the hazards. However, when slightly less strong events that still impact multiple areas during the storm life cycle are considered, the relative importance of hurricanes shrinks as that of ETCs grows. Furthermore we find distinct paths for ETCs causing multi-site surge at individual segments of the US east coast.

  6. Importance of air-sea interaction on wind waves, storm surge and hurricane simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yingjian; Yu, Xiping

    2017-04-01

    It was reported from field observations that wind stress coefficient levels off and even decreases when the wind speed exceeds 30-40 m/s. We propose a wave boundary layer model (WBLM) based on the momentum and energy conservation equations. Taking into account the physical details of the air-sea interaction process as well as the energy dissipation due to the presence of sea spray, this model successfully predicts the decreasing tendency of wind stress coefficient. Then WBLM is embedded in the current-wave coupled model FVCOM-SWAVE to simulate surface waves and storm surge under the forcing of hurricane Katrina. Numerical results based on WBLM agree well with the observed data of NDBC buoys and tide gauges. Sensitivity analysis of different wind stress evaluation methods also shows that large anomalies of significant wave height and surge elevation are captured along the passage of hurricane core. The differences of the local wave height are up to 13 m, which is in accordance with the general knowledge that the ocean dynamic processes under storm conditions are very sensitive to the amount of momentum exchange at the air-sea interface. In the final part of the research, the reduced wind stress coefficient is tested in the numerical forecast of hurricane Katrina. A parabolic formula fitted to WBLM is employed in the atmosphere-ocean coupled model COAWST. Considering the joint effects of ocean cooling and reduced wind drag, the intensity metrics - the minimum sea level pressure and the maximum 10 m wind speed - are in good inconsistency with the best track result. Those methods, which predict the wind stress coefficient that increase or saturate in extreme wind condition, underestimate the hurricane intensity. As a whole, we unify the evaluation methods of wind stress in different numerical models and yield reasonable results. Although it is too early to conclude that WBLM is totally applicable or the drag coefficient does decrease for high wind speed, our current

  7. Hurricane Sandy science plan: impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caskie, Sarah A.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry • Impacts to coastal beaches and barriers

  8. A tale of two storms: Surges and sediment deposition from Hurricanes Andrew and Wilma in Florida’s southwest coast mangrove forests: Chapter 6G in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Thomas J.; Anderson, Gordon H.; Tiling, Ginger

    2007-01-01

    Hurricanes can be very different from each other. Here we examine the impacts that two hurricanes, Andrew and Wilma, had in terms of storm surge and sediment deposition on the southwest coast of Florida. Although Wilma was the weaker storm, it had the greater impact. Wilma had the higher storm surge over a larger area and deposited more sediment than did Andrew. This effect was most likely due to the size of Wilma's eye, which was four times larger than that of Andrew.

  9. Sensitivity of Hurricane Storm Surge to Land Cover and Topography Under Various Sea Level Rise Scenarios Along the Mississippi Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclone conditions. Literature suggests with 'very high confidence that global sea level will rise at least 0.2 m and no more than 2.0 m by 2011' (Donoghue, 2011; Parris et al., 2012). Further, it is recognized that the Mississippi barrier islands are highly susceptible to a westward migration and retreating shoreline. With predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms, rising sea levels, and a changing landscape, it is important to understand how these changes may affect inundation extent and flooding due to hurricane storm surge. A state-of-the-art SWAN+ADCIRC hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past (1960) and future (2050) sea level changes were simulated. In addition to altering the initial sea state, land use land cover (LULC) was modified for 1960 and 2050 based on historic data and future projections. LULC datasets are used to derive surface roughness characteristics, such as Manning's n, and wind reduction factors. The topography along the barrier islands and near the Pascagoula River, MS was also altered to reflect the 1960 landscape. Storm surge sensitivity to topographic change were addressed by comparing model results between two 1960 storm surge simulations; one with current topography and a second with changes to the barrier islands. In addition, model responses to changes in LULC are compared. The results will be used to gain insight into adapting present day storm surge models for future conditions. References Donoghue, J. (2011). Sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and sea level rise scenarios for the near future. Climatic Change, 107

  10. Cheap Textile Dam Protection of Seaport Cities against Hurricane Storm Surge Waves, Tsunamis, and Other Weather-Related Floods

    CERN Document Server

    Bolonkin, A

    2007-01-01

    Author offers to complete research on a new method and cheap applicatory design for land and sea textile dams. The offered method for the protection of the USA's major seaport cities against hurricane storm surge waves, tsunamis, and other weather-related inundations is the cheapest (to build and maintain of all extant anti-flood barriers) and it, therefore, has excellent prospective applications for defending coastal cities from natural weather-caused disasters. It may also be a very cheap method for producing a big amount of cyclical renewable hydropower, land reclamation from the ocean, lakes, riverbanks, as well as land transportation connection of islands, and islands to mainland, instead of very costly over-water bridges and underwater tunnels.

  11. Global Positioning System surveys of storm-surge sensors deployed during Hurricane Ike, Seadrift, Texas, to Lake Charles, Louisiana, 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Jason; Woodward, Brenda K.; Storm, John B.

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey installed a network of pressure sensors at 65 sites along the Gulf Coast from Seadrift, Texas, northeast to Lake Charles, Louisiana, to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of inland storm surge and coastal flooding caused by Hurricane Ike in September 2008. A Global Positioning System was used to obtain elevations of reference marks near each sensor. A combination of real-time kinematic (RTK) and static Global Positioning System surveys were done to obtain elevations of reference marks. Leveling relative to reference marks was done to obtain elevations of sensor orifices above the reference marks. This report summarizes the Global Positioning System data collected and processed to obtain reference mark and storm-sensor-orifice elevations for 59 storm-surge sensors recovered from the original 65 installed as a necessary prelude to computation of storm-surge elevations. National Geodetic Survey benchmarks were used for RTK surveying. Where National Geodetic Survey benchmarks were not within 12 kilometers of a sensor site, static surveying was done. Additional control points for static surveying were in the form of newly established benchmarks or reestablished existing benchmarks. RTK surveying was used to obtain positions and elevations of reference marks for 29 sensor sites. Static surveying was used to obtain positions and elevations of reference marks for 34 sensor sites; four sites were surveyed using both methods. Multiple quality checks on the RTK-survey and static-survey data were applied. The results of all quality checks indicate that the desired elevation accuracy for the surveys of this report, less than 0.1-meter error, was achieved.

  12. The Storm Surge and Sub-Grid Inundation Modeling in New York City during Hurricane Sandy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry V. Wang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy inflicted heavy damage in New York City and the New Jersey coast as the second costliest storm in history. A large-scale, unstructured grid storm tide model, Semi-implicit Eulerian Lagrangian Finite Element (SELFE, was used to hindcast water level variation during Hurricane Sandy in the mid-Atlantic portion of the U.S. East Coast. The model was forced by eight tidal constituents at the model’s open boundary, 1500 km away from the coast, and the wind and pressure fields from atmospheric model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS provided by Weatherflow Inc. The comparisons of the modeled storm tide with the NOAA gauge stations from Montauk, NY, Long Island Sound, encompassing New York Harbor, Atlantic City, NJ, to Duck, NC, were in good agreement, with an overall root mean square error and relative error in the order of 15–20 cm and 5%–7%, respectively. Furthermore, using large-scale model outputs as the boundary conditions, a separate sub-grid model that incorporates LIDAR data for the major portion of the New York City was also set up to investigate the detailed inundation process. The model results compared favorably with USGS’ Hurricane Sandy Mapper database in terms of its timing, local inundation area, and the depth of the flooding water. The street-level inundation with water bypassing the city building was created and the maximum extent of horizontal inundation was calculated, which was within 30 m of the data-derived estimate by USGS.

  13. Numerical Evaluation of Storm Surge Indices for Public Advisory Purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bass, B.; Bedient, P. B.; Dawson, C.; Proft, J.

    2016-12-01

    After the devastating hurricane season of 2005, shortcomings with the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale's (SSHS) ability to characterize a tropical cyclones potential to generate storm surge became widely apparent. As a result, several alternative surge indices were proposed to replace the SSHS, including Powell and Reinhold's Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) factor, Kantha's Hurricane Surge Index (HSI), and Irish and Resio's Surge Scale (SS). Of the previous, the IKE factor is the only surge index to-date that truly captures a tropical cyclones integrated intensity, size, and wind field distribution. However, since the IKE factor was proposed in 2007, an accurate assessment of this surge index has not been performed. This study provides the first quantitative evaluation of the IKEs ability to serve as a predictor of a tropical cyclones potential surge impacts as compared to other alternative surge indices. Using the tightly coupled ADvanced CIRCulation and Simulating WAves Nearshore models, the surge and wave responses of Hurricane Ike (2008) and 78 synthetic tropical cyclones were evaluated against the SSHS, IKE, HSI and SS. Results along the upper TX coast of the Gulf of Mexico demonstrate that the HSI performs best in capturing the peak surge response of a tropical cyclone, while the IKE accounting for winds greater than tropical storm intensity (IKETS) provides the most accurate estimate of a tropical cyclones regional surge impacts. These results demonstrate that the appropriate selection of a surge index ultimately depends on what information is of interest to be conveyed to the public and/or scientific community.

  14. The use of coastal altimetry to support storm surge studies in project eSurge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cipollini, P.; Harwood, P.; Snaith, H.; Vignudelli, S.; West, L.; Zecchetto, S.; Donlon, C.

    2012-04-01

    One of the most promising applications of the new field of coastal altimetry, i.e. the discipline aiming to recover meaningful estimates of geophysical parameters (sea level, significant wave height and wind speed) from satellite altimeter data in the coastal zone, is the study of storm surges. The understanding and realistic modelling of surges supports both preparation and mitigation activities and should eventually bring enormous societal benefits, especially to some of the world's poorest countries (like Bangladesh). Earth Observation data have an important role to play in storm surge monitoring and forecasting, but the full uptake of these data by users (such as environmental agencies and tidal prediction centres) must first be encouraged by showcasing their usefulness, and then supported by providing easy access. Having recognized the above needs, The European Space Agency has recently launched a Data User Element (DUE) project called eSurge. The main purposes of eSurge are a) to contribute to an integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting through Earth Observation, as part of a wider optimal strategy for building an improved forecast and early warning capability for coastal inundation; and b) to increase the use of the advanced capabilities of ESA and other satellite data for storm surge applications. The project is led by Logica UK, with NOC (UK), DMI (Denmark), CMRC (Ireland) and KNMI (Netherlands) as scientific partners. A very important component of eSurge is the development, validation and provision of dedicated coastal altimetry products, which is the focus of the present contribution. Coastal altimetry has a prominent role to play as it measures the total water level envelope directly, and this is one of the key quantities required by storm surge applications and services. But it can also provide important information on the wave field in the coastal strip, which helps the development of more realistic wave models that in

  15. Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, S. C.; Alizad, K.; Medeiros, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Needham, H. F.; Cox, A.

    2016-05-01

    This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static ("bathtub") modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

  16. Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, S.C.; Alizad, K.A.; Medeiros, S.C.; Passeri, Davina; Needham, H.F.; Cox, A.

    2016-01-01

    This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static (“bathtub”) modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

  17. Modeling Storm Surge and Inundation in Washington, DC, during Hurricane Isabel and the 1936 Potomac River Great Flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry V. Wang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Washington, DC, the capital of the U.S., is located along the Upper Tidal Potomac River, where a reliable operational model is needed for making predictions of storm surge and river-induced flooding. We set up a finite volume model using a semi-implicit, Eulerian-Lagrangian scheme on a base grid (200 m and a special feature of sub-grids (10 m, sourced with high-resolution LiDAR data and bathymetry surveys. The model domain starts at the fall line and extends 120 km downstream to Colonial Beach, VA. The model was used to simulate storm tides during the 2003 Hurricane Isabel. The water level measuring 3.1 m reached the upper tidal river in the vicinity of Washington during the peak of the storm, followed by second and third flood peaks two and four days later, resulting from river flooding coming downstream after heavy precipitation in the watershed. The modeled water level and timing were accurate in matching with the verified peak observations within 9 cm and 3 cm, and with R2 equal to 0.93 and 0.98 at the Wisconsin Avenue and Washington gauges, respectively. A simulation was also conducted for reconstructing the historical 1936 Potomac River Great Flood that inundated downtown. It was identified that the flood water, with a velocity exceeding 2.7 m/s in the downstream of Roosevelt Island, pinched through the bank northwest of East Potomac Park near DC. The modeled maximum inundation extents revealed a crescent-shaped flooding area, which was consistent with the historical surveyed flood map of the event.

  18. A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Kraucunas, Ian P.; Rice, Jennie S.; Preston, Benjamin; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2013-12-10

    The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks can be potentially exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise in the northern Gulf coast. An unstructured-grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase of semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a parameter “change of inundation depth” through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.

  19. Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Krien

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave–current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge – up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

  20. Guiding Surge Reduction Strategies via Characterization of Coastal Surge Propagation and Internal Surge Generation within a Complex Bay/Estuary System, Galveston Bay, TX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bass, B.; Torres, J.; Irza, N.; Bedient, P. B.; Dawson, C.; Proft, J.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, Hurricane Ike (2008) and a suite of synthetic storms are simulated in order to evaluate how different hurricane landfalls, wind intensities, and radius to maximum winds influence the surge response in complex semi-enclosed bays such as Galveston Bay, located along the Texas Gulf Coast. The Advanced CIRCulation and Simulating Waves Nearshore (ADCIRC+SWAN) models are employed to quantify surge in terms of its relative coastal contributions that propagate across barrier islands and tidal inlets and subsequently into Galveston Bay, the surge generated locally within the Bay itself, and the interaction between these coastal and local components of surge. Results from this research will further the current understanding of surge interactions in bay systems and guide coastal engineering surge reduction projects that need to consider multiple lines of defense to protect complex bay/estuary systems such as Galveston Bay, TX.

  1. Electromagnetic computation methods for lightning surge protection studies

    CERN Document Server

    Baba, Yoshihiro

    2016-01-01

    This book is the first to consolidate current research and to examine the theories of electromagnetic computation methods in relation to lightning surge protection. The authors introduce and compare existing electromagnetic computation methods such as the method of moments (MOM), the partial element equivalent circuit (PEEC), the finite element method (FEM), the transmission-line modeling (TLM) method, and the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method. The application of FDTD method to lightning protection studies is a topic that has matured through many practical applications in the past decade, and the authors explain the derivation of Maxwell's equations required by the FDTD, and modeling of various electrical components needed in computing lightning electromagnetic fields and surges with the FDTD method. The book describes the application of FDTD method to current and emerging problems of lightning surge protection of continuously more complex installations, particularly in critical infrastructures of e...

  2. Demand surge following earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Anna H.

    2012-01-01

    Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon where repair costs for the same damage are higher after large- versus small-scale natural disasters. It has reportedly increased monetary losses by 20 to 50%. In previous work, a model for the increased costs of reconstruction labor and materials was developed for hurricanes in the Southeast United States. The model showed that labor cost increases, rather than the material component, drove the total repair cost increases, and this finding could be extended to earthquakes. A study of past large-scale disasters suggested that there may be additional explanations for demand surge. Two such explanations specific to earthquakes are the exclusion of insurance coverage for earthquake damage and possible concurrent causation of damage from an earthquake followed by fire or tsunami. Additional research into these aspects might provide a better explanation for increased monetary losses after large- vs. small-scale earthquakes.

  3. Hurricane Impacts on Small Island Communities: Case study of Hurricane Matthew on Great Exuma, The Bahamas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan Sealey, Kathleen; Bowleg, John

    2017-04-01

    Great Exuma has been a UNESCO Eco-hydrology Project Site with a focus on coastal restoration and flood management. Great Exuma and its largest settlement, George Town, support a population of just over 8.000 people on an island dominated by extensive coastal wetlands. The Victoria Pond Eco-Hydrology project restored flow and drainage to highly-altered coastal wetlands to reduce flooding of the built environment as well as regain ecological function. The project was designed to show the value of a protected wetland and coastal environment within a populated settlement; demonstrating that people can live alongside mangroves and value "green" infrastructure for flood protection. The restoration project was initiated after severe storm flooding in 2007 with Tropical Storm Noel. In 2016, the passing of Hurricane Matthew had unprecedented impacts on the coastal communities of Great Exuma, challenging past practices in restoration and flood prevention. This talk reviews the loss of natural capital (for example, fish populations, mangroves, salt water inundation) from Hurricane Matthew based on a rapid response survey of Great Exuma. The surprisingly find was the impact of storm surge on low-lying areas used primarily for personal farms and small-scale agriculture. Although women made up the overwhelming majority of people who attended Coastal Restoration workshops, women were most adversely impacted by the recent hurricane flooding with the loss of their small low-lying farms and gardens. Although increasing culverts in mangrove creeks in two areas did reduce building flood damage, the low-lying areas adjacent to mangroves, mostly ephemeral freshwater wetlands, were inundated with saltwater, and seasonal crops in these areas were destroyed. These ephemeral wetlands were designed as part of the wetland flooding system, it was not known how important these small areas were to artisanal farming on Great Exuma. The size and scope of Hurricane Matthew passing through the

  4. NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF WAVES AND TIDE-SURGE INTERACTION ON TIDE-SURGES IN THE BOHAI SEA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尹宝树; 侯一筠; 程明华; 苏京志; 林明祥; 李明悝; M.I.El-Sabh

    2001-01-01

    Abstract The author's combined numerical model consisting of a third generation shallow water wave model and a 3-D tide-surge model with wave-dependent surface wind stress were used to study the influence of waves on fide-surge motion. For the typical weather case, in this study, the magnitude and mechanism of the influence of waves on tide-surges in the Bohai Sea were revealed for the first time. The results showed that although consideration of the wave-dependent surface wind stresses raise slightly the traditional surface wind stress, due to the accumulated effects, the computed results are improved on the whole. Storm level maximum modulation can reach 0.4 m. The results computed by the combined model agreed well with the measured data.

  5. NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF WAVES AND TIDE- SURGE INTERACTION ON TIDE-SURGES IN THE BOHAI SEA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The author's combined numerical model consisting of a third generation shallow water wave model and a 3-D tide-surge model with wave-dependent surface wind stress were used to study the influence of waves on tide-surge motion. For the typical weather case, in this study, the magnitude and mechanism of the influence of waves on tide-surges in the Bohai Sea were revealed for the first time. The results showed that although consideration of the wave-dependent surface wind stresses raise slightly the traditional surface wind stress, due to the accumulated effects, the computed results are improved on the whole. Storm level maximum modulation can reach 0.4 m. The results computed by the combined model agreed well with the measured data.

  6. A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.; van Pelt, W. J. J.

    2015-01-01

    The climate sensitivity of Abrahamsenbreen, a 20 km long surge-type glacier in northern Spitsbergen, is studied with a simple glacier model. A scheme to describe the surges is included, which makes it possible to account for the effect of surges on the total mass budget of the glacier. A climate rec

  7. Geologic effects of hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coch, Nicholas K.

    1994-08-01

    Hurricanes are intense low pressure systems of tropical origin. Hurricane damage results from storm surge, wind, and inland flooding from heavy rainfall. Field observations and remote sensing of recent major hurricanes such as Hugo (1989), Andrew (1992) and Iniki (1992) are providing new insights into the mechanisms producing damage in these major storms. Velocities associated with hurricanes include the counterclockwise vortex winds flowing around the eye and the much slower regional winds that steer hurricane and move it forward. Vectorial addition of theseof these two winds on the higher effective wind speed than on the left side. Coast-parallel hurricane tracks keep the weaker left side of the storm against the coast, whereas coast-normal tracks produce a wide swath of destruction as the more powerful right side of the storm cuts a swath of destruction hundreds of kilometers inland. Storm surge is a function of the wind speed, central pressure, shelf slope, shoreline configuration, and anthropogenic alterations to the shoreline. Maximum surge heights are not under the eye of the hurricane, where the pressure is lowest, but on the right side of the eye at the radius of maximum winds, where the winds are strongest. Flood surge occurs as the hurricane approaches land and drives coastal waters, and superimposed waves, across the shore. Ebb surge occurs when impounded surface water flows seaward as the storm moves inland. Flood and ebb surge damage have been greatly increased in recent hurricanes as a result of anthropogenic changes along the shoreline. Hurricane wind damage occurs on three scales — megascale, mesoscale and microscale. Local wind damage is a function of wind speed, exposure and structural resistance to velocity pressure, wind drag and flying debris. Localized extreme damage is caused by gusts that can locally exceed sustained winds by a factor of two in areas where there is strong convective activity. Geologic changes occuring in hurricanes

  8. Extreme storm surges: a comparative study of frequency analysis approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hamdi

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In France, nuclear facilities were designed to very low probabilities of failure. Nevertheless, exceptional climatic events have given rise to surges much larger than observations (outliers and had clearly illustrated the potential to underestimate the extreme water levels calculated with the current statistical methods. The objective of the present work is to conduct a comparative study of three approaches including the Annual Maxima (AM, the Peaks-Over Threshold (POT and the r-Largest Order Statistics (r-LOS. These methods are illustrated in a real analysis case study. All the data sets were screened for outliers. Non-parametric tests for randomness, homogeneity and stationarity of time series were used. The shape and scale parameters stability plots, the mean excess residual life plot and the stability of the standard errors of return levels were used to select optimal thresholds and r values for the POT and r-LOS method, respectively. The comparison of methods was based on: (i the uncertainty degrees, (ii the adequacy criteria and tests and (iii the visual inspection. It was found that the r-LOS and POT methods have reduced the uncertainty on the distributions parameters and return level estimates and have systematically shown values of the 100 and 500 yr return levels smaller than those estimated with the AM method. Results have also shown that none of the compared methods has allowed a good fitting at the right tail of the distribution in the presence of outliers. As a perspective, the use of historical information was proposed in order to increase the representativity of outliers in data sets. Findings are of practical relevance not only to nuclear energy operators in France, for applications in storm surge hazard analysis and flood management, but also for the optimal planning and design of facilities to withstand extreme environmental conditions, with an appropriate level of risk.

  9. Extreme storm surges: a comparative study of frequency analysis approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

    2014-08-01

    In France, nuclear facilities were designed around very low probabilities of failure. Nevertheless, some extreme climatic events have given rise to exceptional observed surges (outliers) much larger than other observations, and have clearly illustrated the potential to underestimate the extreme water levels calculated with the current statistical methods. The objective of the present work is to conduct a comparative study of three approaches to extreme value analysis, including the annual maxima (AM), the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and the r-largest order statistics (r-LOS). These methods are illustrated in a real analysis case study. All data sets were screened for outliers. Non-parametric tests for randomness, homogeneity and stationarity of time series were used. The shape and scale parameter stability plots, the mean excess residual life plot and the stability of the standard errors of return levels were used to select optimal thresholds and r values for the POT and r-LOS method, respectively. The comparison of methods was based on (i) the uncertainty degrees, (ii) the adequacy criteria and tests, and (iii) the visual inspection. It was found that the r-LOS and POT methods have reduced the uncertainty on the distribution parameters and return level estimates and have systematically shown values of the 100 and 500-year return levels smaller than those estimated with the AM method. Results have also shown that none of the compared methods has allowed a good fit at the right tail of the distribution in the presence of outliers. As a perspective, the use of historical information was proposed in order to increase the representativeness of outliers in data sets. Findings are of practical relevance, not only to nuclear energy operators in France, for applications in storm surge hazard analysis and flood management, but also for the optimal planning and design of facilities to withstand extreme environmental conditions, with an appropriate level of risk.

  10. Hurricane Sandy: An Educational Bibliography of Key Research Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piotrowski, Chris

    2013-01-01

    There, undoubtedly, will be a flurry of research activity in the "Superstorm" Sandy impact area on a myriad of disaster-related topics, across academic disciplines. The purpose of this study was to review the disaster research related specifically to hurricanes in the educational and social sciences that would best serve as a compendium…

  11. A numerical study of vegetation impact on reducing storm surge by wetlands in a semi-enclosed estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelin, Hu; Qin, Chen; Wang, Hongqing

    2014-01-01

    Coastal wetlands play a unique role in extreme hurricane events. The impact of wetlands on storm surge depends on multiple factors including vegetation, landscape, and storm characteristics. The Delft3D model, in which vegetation effects on flow and turbulence are explicitly incorporated, was applied to the semi-enclosed Breton Sound (BS) estuary in coastal Louisiana to investigate the wetland impact. Guided by extensive field observations, a series of numerical experiments were conducted based on variations of actual vegetation properties and storm parameters from Hurricane Isaac in 2012. Both the vegetation-induced maximum surge reduction (MSR) and maximum surge reduction rate (MSRR) increased with stem height and stem density, and were more sensitive to stem height. The MSR and MSRR decreased significantly with increasing wind intensity. The MSRR was the highest with a fast-moving weak storm. It was also found that the MSRR varied proportionally to the expression involving the maximum bulk velocity and surge over the area of interest, and was more dependent on the maximum bulk surge. Both MSR and MSRR appeared to increase when the area of interest decreased from the whole BS estuary to the upper estuary. Within the range of the numerical experiments, the maximum simulated MSR and MSRR over the upper estuary were 0.7 m and 37%, respectively.

  12. Hurricane Isaac: A Longitudinal Analysis of Storm Characteristics and Power Outage Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D; Ferreira, Celso M; Quiring, Steven M

    2016-10-01

    In August 2012, Hurricane Isaac, a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, caused extensive power outages in Louisiana. The storm brought high winds, storm surge, and flooding to Louisiana, and power outages were widespread and prolonged. Hourly power outage data for the state of Louisiana were collected during the storm and analyzed. This analysis included correlation of hourly power outage figures by zip code with storm conditions including wind, rainfall, and storm surge using a nonparametric ensemble data mining approach. Results were analyzed to understand how correlation of power outages with storm conditions differed geographically within the state. This analysis provided insight on how rainfall and storm surge, along with wind, contribute to power outages in hurricanes. By conducting a longitudinal study of outages at the zip code level, we were able to gain insight into the causal drivers of power outages during hurricanes. Our analysis showed that the statistical importance of storm characteristic covariates to power outages varies geographically. For Hurricane Isaac, wind speed, precipitation, and previous outages generally had high importance, whereas storm surge had lower importance, even in zip codes that experienced significant surge. The results of this analysis can inform the development of power outage forecasting models, which often focus strictly on wind-related covariates. Our study of Hurricane Isaac indicates that inclusion of other covariates, particularly precipitation, may improve model accuracy and robustness across a range of storm conditions and geography.

  13. Study of a Novel Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tom, Nathan M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-01

    This study investigates the performance of an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) that utilizes adjustable geometry as a means of controlling the hydrodynamic coefficients, a concept originally proposed by [1]. The body of the device consists of a bottom-hinged solid rectangular frame with five horizontal flaps spanning the interior of the frame. The flaps can rotate independently about their center of rotation within the frame like a large window shutter. Changing the orientation of the flaps alters the hydrodynamic coefficients and natural frequency of the device as well as the ability to shed or absorb structural loads accordingly. This ability may allow the device to operate in a wider range of sea states than other current wave energy converter designs. This paper presents and compares the results of numerical simulations and experimental testing of the OSWEC's response to regular waves with all five of the horizontal fin configurations sharing the same orientation of 0 degrees (fully closed interior) and 90 degrees (fully open). The numerical simulations were performed using WAMIT, which calculates hydrodynamic coefficients using a boundary element method code to solve the linear potential flow problem, and WEC-Sim, a MATLAB-based tool that simulates multibody devices in the time domain by solving the governing equations of motion. A 1:14 scale model of the device was built for experimental evaluation in an 8-m-long, 1-m wide wave tank, which supports a water depth of 0.7 m. The OSWEC motion in different wave conditions was measured with displacement sensors while nonlinear wave-structure interaction effects like slamming and overtopping were captured using a high-speed camera and used to understand differences between the simulation and experiments.

  14. Study on the storm surges induced by cold waves in the Northern East China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Dongxue; Hou, Yijun; Li, Jian; Liu, Yahao

    2016-08-01

    Cold wave, a kind of severe weather system, can bring strong wind and induce significant sea level rise to the Northern East China Sea. Based on CFSR data, the study shows the monthly distributions of invaded days and the spatiotemporal distributions of cold-wave wind direction and wind speed. A three-dimensional numerical model (ROMS) was developed to study storm surges induced by cold waves. The role of wind direction, wind speed, wind duration, extratropical cyclone and tide-surge interaction is investigated by conducting different sensitivity experiments. The results indicate that storm surges mainly happen at the coasts perpendicular to the wind directions. Surge range and time lag are related to the geometry of the basin and the continental shelf. The response of the sea-level fluctuations to cold wave indicates that there is a positive correlation between crests and wind speed, a negative correlation between troughs and wind speed, but no obvious correlations to wind duration. Coupled weather cold waves, which yield a larger range and a multi-peak structure of surges, can be classified according to cold wave tracks and extratropical cyclones. The tide-surge interaction has an obvious and different effect on the magnitudes and phases of storm surges for different tidal stages.

  15. A preliminary study on the intensity of cold wave storm surges of Laizhou Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xue; Dong, Sheng

    2016-12-01

    Dike failure and marine losses are quite prominent in Laizhou Bay during the period of cold wave storm surges because of its open coastline to the north and flat topography. In order to evaluate the intensity of cold wave storm surge, the hindcast of marine elements induced by cold waves in Laizhou Bay from 1985 to 2004 is conducted using a cold wave storm surge-wave coupled model and the joint return period of extreme water level, concomitant wave height, and concomitant wind speed are calculated. A new criterion of cold wave storm surge intensity based on such studies is developed. Considering the frequency of cold wave, this paper introduces a Poisson trivariate compound reconstruction model to calculate the joint return period, which is closer to the reality. By using the newly defined cold wave storm surge intensity, the `cold wave grade' in meteorology can better describe the severity of cold wave storm surges and the warning level is well corresponding to different intensities of cold wave storm surges. Therefore, it provides a proper guidance to marine hydrological analysis, disaster prevention and marine structure design in Laizhou Bay.

  16. Probabilistic Storm Surge Hazard Assessment in Martinique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Sansorgne, Eliot; Roger, Jean; Zahibo, Narcisse; Roquelaure, Stevie

    2013-04-01

    Located at the center of the Lesser Antilles, Martinique is under the threat of hurricanes formed over the warm tropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. These events can be extremely costly in terms of human, property, and economic losses. Storm surge hazard studies are hence required to provide guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers. A few studies have been conducted so far in the French Lesser Antilles, but they mainly rely on scarce historical data of extreme sea levels or numerical models with coarse resolutions. Recent progress in statistical techniques for generating large number of synthetic hurricanes as well as availability of high-resolution topographic and bathymetric data (LIDAR) and improved numerical models enables us today to conduct storm surge hazard assessment studies with much more accuracy. Here we present a methodology to assess cyclonic surge hazard in Martinique both at regional and local scales. We first simulate the storm surges that would be induced by a large set of potential events generated by the statistical/deterministic models of Emanuel et al. [2006]. We use the ADCIRC-SWAN coupled models (Dietrich et al 2012) to simulate inundation inland with grid resolutions of up to 50-100m in the coastal area for the whole island.These models are validated against observations during past events such as hurricane Dean in 2007. The outputs can then be used in some specific sites to force higher resolution models for crisis management and local risk assessment studies. This work is supported by the INTERREG IV « Caribbean » program TSUNAHOULE.

  17. Multi-Output Artificial Neural Network for Storm Surge Prediction in North Carolina

    CERN Document Server

    Bezuglov, Anton; Santiago, Reinaldo

    2016-01-01

    During hurricane seasons, emergency managers and other decision makers need accurate and `on-time' information on potential storm surge impacts. Fully dynamical computer models, such as the ADCIRC tide, storm surge, and wind-wave model take several hours to complete a forecast when configured at high spatial resolution. Additionally, statically meaningful ensembles of high-resolution models (needed for uncertainty estimation) cannot easily be computed in near real-time. This paper discusses an artificial neural network model for storm surge prediction in North Carolina. The network model provides fast, real-time storm surge estimates at coastal locations in North Carolina. The paper studies the performance of the neural network model vs. other models on synthetic and real hurricane data.

  18. Postpartum mental health after Hurricane Katrina: A cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harville Emily W

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Natural disaster is often a cause of psychopathology, and women are vulnerable to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD and depression. Depression is also common after a woman gives birth. However, no research has addressed postpartum women's mental health after natural disaster. Methods Interviews were conducted in 2006–2007 with women who had been pregnant during or shortly after Hurricane Katrina. 292 New Orleans and Baton Rouge women were interviewed at delivery and 2 months postpartum. Depression was assessed using the Edinburgh Depression Scale and PTSD using the Post-Traumatic Stress Checklist. Women were asked about their experience of the hurricane with questions addressing threat, illness, loss, and damage. Chi-square tests and log-binomial/Poisson models were used to calculate associations and relative risks (RR. Results Black women and women with less education were more likely to have had a serious experience of the hurricane. 18% of the sample met the criteria for depression and 13% for PTSD at two months postpartum. Feeling that one's life was in danger was associated with depression and PTSD, as were injury to a family member and severe impact on property. Overall, two or more severe experiences of the storm was associated with an increased risk for both depression (relative risk (RR 1.77, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.08–2.89 and PTSD (RR 3.68, 95% CI 1.80–7.52. Conclusion Postpartum women who experience natural disaster severely are at increased risk for mental health problems, but overall rates of depression and PTSD do not seem to be higher than in studies of the general population.

  19. Studies on scaled models for gas entrainment in the surge tank of LMFBR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramdasu, D.; Shivakumar, N.S.; Padmakumar, G.; Anand Babu, C.; Vaidyanathan, G. [Fast Reactor Technology Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam (India); Rammohan, S.; Sreekala, S.K.; Manikandan, S.; Saseendran, S. [Fluid Control Research Institute, Palghat (India)

    2007-07-01

    This paper presents the studies carried out in the different scale models of Surge tank used in the secondary circuit of Liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR). Surge tank acquires importance because of its ability to take care of pressure surges in case of a sodium water reaction in Steam Generators (SG). The blanket of argon cover gas above the sodium free surface in the surge tank acts as a cushion for the surges. At the same time, argon gas is a source of entrainment into the sodium which is undesirable from the consideration of effective heat transfer in Inter mediate Heat Exchanger and SG, cavitation in pumps and operational problems of continuous feed and bleed of cover gas, thus leading to unfavourable reactor operating conditions. To investigate the phenomenon of gas entrainment in surge tank, hydraulic experiments were conducted in water using 1/38, 1/32, 1/22 and 1/12 scale models with Froude similarity. The minimum height of liquid column required to avoid gas entrainment was determined using different types of internal devices. Experiments were carried out in the 5/8 scale model to confirm the results of the smaller scale models. It was found that free surface height to avoid gas entrainment varies for different scale models. The combination of Pepper pot with ring plate was found to be the most effective in avoiding gas entrainment at H/D equals 1.28 where H is the height of liquid column in the tank from tank bottom and D is the inner diameter of surge tank.

  20. Assessment of surge arrester failure rate and application studies in Hellenic high voltage transmission lines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christodoulou, C.A.; Fotis, G.P.; Gonos, I.F.; Stathopulos, I.A. [National Technical University of Athens, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, High Voltage Laboratory, 9 Iroon Politechniou St., Zografou Campus, 157 80 Athens (Greece); Ekonomou, L. [A.S.PE.T.E. - School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, Department of Electrical Engineering Educators, N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece)

    2010-02-15

    The use of transmission line surge arresters to improve the lightning performance of transmission lines is becoming more common. Especially in areas with high soil resistivity and ground flash density, surge arresters constitute the most effective protection mean. In this paper a methodology for assessing the surge arrester failure rate based on the electrogeometrical model is presented. Critical currents that exceed arresters rated energy stress were estimated by the use of a simulation tool. The methodology is applied on operating Hellenic transmission lines of 150 kV. Several case studies are analyzed by installing surge arresters on different intervals, in relation to the region's tower footing resistance and the ground flash density. The obtained results are compared with real records of outage rate showing the effectiveness of the surge arresters in the reduction of the recorded failure rate. The presented methodology can be proved valuable to the studies of electric power systems designers intending in a more effective lightning protection, reducing the operational costs and providing continuity of service. (author)

  1. A High Density Storm Surge Monitoring Network: Evaluating the Ability of Wetland Vegetation to Reduce Storm Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawler, S.; Denton, M.; Ferreira, C.

    2013-12-01

    Recent tropical storm activity in the Chesapeake Bay and a potential increase in the predicted frequency and magnitude of weather systems have drawn increased attention to the need for improved tools for monitoring, modeling and predicting the magnitude of storm surge, coastal flooding and the respective damage to infrastructure and wetland ecosystems. Among other forms of flood protection, it is believed that coastal wetlands and vegetation can act as a natural barrier that slows hurricane flooding, helping to reduce the impact of storm surge. However, quantifying the relationship between the physical process of storm surge and its attenuation by wetland vegetation is an active area of research and the deployment of in-situ measuring devices is crucial to data collection efforts in this field. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) mobile storm-surge network has already successfully provided a framework for evaluating hurricane induced storm surge water levels on a regional scale through the use of in-situ devices installed in areas affected by storm surge during extreme events. Based on the success of the USGS efforts, in this study we adapted the monitoring network to cover relatively small areas of wetlands and coastal vegetation with an increased density of sensors. Groups of 6 to 10 water level sensors were installed in sites strategically selected in three locations on the Virginia coast of the lower Chesapeake Bay area to monitor different types of vegetation and the resulting hydrodynamic patterns (open coast and inland waters). Each group of sensors recorded time series data of water levels for both astronomical tide circulation and meteorological induced surge. Field campaigns were carried out to survey characteristics of vegetation contributing to flow resistance (i.e. height, diameter and stem density) and mapped using high precision GPS. A geodatabase containing data from field campaigns will support the development and calibration of

  2. Application of short-data methods on extreme surge levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, X.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical cyclone-induced storm surges are among the most destructive natural hazards that impact the United States. Unfortunately for academic research, the available time series for extreme surge analysis are very short. The limited data introduces uncertainty and affects the accuracy of statistical analyses of extreme surge levels. This study deals with techniques applicable to data sets less than 20 years, including simulation modelling and methods based on the parameters of the parent distribution. The verified water levels from water gauges spread along the Southwest and Southeast Florida Coast, as well as the Florida Keys, are used in this study. Methods to calculate extreme storm surges are described and reviewed, including 'classical' methods based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), and approaches designed specifically to deal with short data sets. Incorporating global-warming influence, the statistical analysis reveals enhanced extreme surge magnitudes and frequencies during warm years, while reduced levels of extreme surge activity are observed in the same study domain during cold years. Furthermore, a non-stationary GEV distribution is applied to predict the extreme surge levels with warming sea surface temperatures. The non-stationary GEV distribution indicates that with 1 Celsius degree warming in sea surface temperature from the baseline climate, the 100-year return surge level in Southwest and Southeast Florida will increase by up to 40 centimeters. The considered statistical approaches for extreme surge estimation based on short data sets will be valuable to coastal stakeholders, including urban planners, emergency managers, and the hurricane and storm surge forecasting and warning system.

  3. Numerical study of flow fluctuation attenuation performance of a surge tank

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭兰兰; 刘正刚; 耿介; 李东; 杜广生

    2013-01-01

    The surge tank plays an important role in ensuring the stability of a water flow standard device. To study the influence of the structure and the working conditions on the regulator performance of a surge tank, a three-dimensional model, including a surge tank, the pipeline and the water tank is built, and the VOF model in the Fluent software is used to simulate the two-phase pulsatile flow in the surge tank. The inlet flow pulsation is defined by the User Defined Functions (UDF), and the outlet flow is set to be a free jet. By calculating the flow fluctuation coefficient of the variation under different flow conditions, the influences of the pulse frequency, the initial water level height and the baffle plate structure on the flow stability are analyzed. It is shown that the surge tank has a good attenuation effect on high-frequency pulsations, there is an optimal initial water level to suppress the fluctuations, the round holes of the baffle should ensure a certain circulation area with the bore diameter small enough to have the necessary damping effect.

  4. Conveying Flood Hazard Risk Through Spatial Modeling: A Case Study for Hurricane Sandy-Affected Communities in Northern New Jersey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artigas, Francisco; Bosits, Stephanie; Kojak, Saleh; Elefante, Dominador; Pechmann, Ildiko

    2016-10-01

    The accurate forecast from Hurricane Sandy sea surge was the result of integrating the most sophisticated environmental monitoring technology available. This stands in contrast to the limited information and technology that exists at the community level to translate these forecasts into flood hazard levels on the ground at scales that are meaningful to property owners. Appropriately scaled maps with high levels of certainty can be effectively used to convey exposure to flood hazard at the community level. This paper explores the most basic analysis and data required to generate a relatively accurate flood hazard map to convey inundation risk due to sea surge. A Boolean overlay analysis of four input layers: elevation and slope derived from LiDAR data and distances from streams and catch basins derived from aerial photography and field reconnaissance were used to create a spatial model that explained 55 % of the extent and depth of the flood during Hurricane Sandy. When a ponding layer was added to the previous model to account for depressions that would fill and spill over to nearby areas, the new model explained almost 70 % of the extent and depth of the flood. The study concludes that fairly accurate maps can be created with readily available information and that it is possible to infer a great deal about risk of inundation at the property level, from flood hazard maps. The study goes on to conclude that local communities are encouraged to prepare for disasters, but in reality because of the existing Federal emergency management framework there is very little incentive to do so.

  5. Conveying Flood Hazard Risk Through Spatial Modeling: A Case Study for Hurricane Sandy-Affected Communities in Northern New Jersey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artigas, Francisco; Bosits, Stephanie; Kojak, Saleh; Elefante, Dominador; Pechmann, Ildiko

    2016-10-01

    The accurate forecast from Hurricane Sandy sea surge was the result of integrating the most sophisticated environmental monitoring technology available. This stands in contrast to the limited information and technology that exists at the community level to translate these forecasts into flood hazard levels on the ground at scales that are meaningful to property owners. Appropriately scaled maps with high levels of certainty can be effectively used to convey exposure to flood hazard at the community level. This paper explores the most basic analysis and data required to generate a relatively accurate flood hazard map to convey inundation risk due to sea surge. A Boolean overlay analysis of four input layers: elevation and slope derived from LiDAR data and distances from streams and catch basins derived from aerial photography and field reconnaissance were used to create a spatial model that explained 55 % of the extent and depth of the flood during Hurricane Sandy. When a ponding layer was added to the previous model to account for depressions that would fill and spill over to nearby areas, the new model explained almost 70 % of the extent and depth of the flood. The study concludes that fairly accurate maps can be created with readily available information and that it is possible to infer a great deal about risk of inundation at the property level, from flood hazard maps. The study goes on to conclude that local communities are encouraged to prepare for disasters, but in reality because of the existing Federal emergency management framework there is very little incentive to do so.

  6. Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the

  7. Experimental Study on Active Control of Surge in a Centrifugal Compression System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nie Chaoqun

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available An experimental study has been carried out on the active control of surge in a centrifugal compression system. With a computerized on-line control scheme, the surge phenomenon is suppressed and the stable operating range of the system is extended. In order to design the active control scheme and choose the desired parameters of the control system inputs, special emphases have been placed on the development of surge inception and the nonlinear interaction between the system and the actuator. By use of the method designed in the present work, the results of active control onsurge have been demonstrated for the different B parameters, different prescribed criteria and different control frequencies.

  8. A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Oerlemans

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The climate sensitivity of Abrahamsenbreen, a 20 km long surge-type glacier in northern Spitsbergen, is studied with a simple glacier model. A scheme to describe the surges is included, which makes it possible to account for the effect of surges on the total mass budget of the glacier. A climate reconstruction back to AD 1300, based on ice-core data from Lomonosovfonna and climate records from Longyearbyen, is used to drive the model. The model is calibrated by requesting that it produces the correct Little Ice Age maximum glacier length and simulates the observed magnitude of the 1978-surge. Abrahamsenbreen is strongly out of balance with the current climate. If climatic conditions will remain as they were for the period 1989–2010, the glacier will ultimately shrink to a length of about 4 km (but this will take hundreds of years. For a climate change scenario involving a 2 m yr−1 rise of the equilibrium line from now onwards, we predict that in the year 2100 Abrahamsenbreen will be about 12 km long. The main effect of a surge is to lower the mean surface elevation and to increase the ablation area, thereby causing a negative perturbation of the mass budget. We found that the occurrence of surges leads to a somewhat stronger retreat of the glacier in a warming climate. Because of the very small bed slope, Abrahamsenbreen is sensitive to small perturbations in the equilibrium-line altitude E. For a decrease of E of only 160 m, the glacier would steadily grow into the Woodfjorddalen until after 2000 years it would reach the Woodfjord and calving could slow down the advance.

  9. Hurricane-driven alteration in plankton community size structure in the Gulf of Mexico: A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gierach, Michelle M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Samuelsen, Annette; Ueyoshi, Kyozo

    2009-04-01

    This was the first study to analyze phytoplankton and zooplankton community size structure during hurricane passage. A three-dimensional biophysical model was used to assess ecosystem dynamics, plankton biomass, and plankton distribution in the Gulf of Mexico during Hurricane Katrina (2005). Model simulations revealed that large phytoplankton were most responsive to hurricane-induced turbulent mixing and nutrient injection, with increases in biomass along the hurricane track. Small phytoplankton, microzooplankton, and mesozooplankton biomass primarily shifted in location and increased in spatial extent as a result of Hurricane Katrina. Hurricane passage disrupted the distribution of plankton biomass associated with mesoscale eddies. Biomass minimums and maximums that resided in the center of warm- and cold-core eddies and along eddy peripheries prior to hurricane passage were displaced during Hurricane Katrina.

  10. Case Study of Hurricane Felix (2007) Rapid Intensification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colon-Pagan, I. C.; Davis, C. A.; Holland, G. J.

    2010-12-01

    The forecasting of tropical cyclones (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is one of the most challenging problems that the operational community experiences. Research advances leading to improvements in predicting this phenomenon would help government agencies make decisions that could reduce the impact on communities that are so often affected by these weather-related events. It has been proposed that TC RI is associated to various factors, including high sea-surface temperatures, weak vertical wind shear, and the ratio of inertial to static stability, which improves the conversion of diabatic heating into circulation. While a cyclone develops, the size of the region of high inertial stability (IS) decreases whereas the magnitude of IS increases. However, it’s unknown whether this is a favorable condition or a result of RI occurrences. The purpose of this research, therefore, is to determine if the IS follows, leads or changes in sync with the intensity change by studying Hurricane Felix (2007) RI phase. Results show a trend of increasing IS before the RI stage, followed by an expansion of the region of high IS. This episode is eventually followed by a decrease in both the intensity and region of positive IS, while the maximum wind speed intensity of the TC diminished. Therefore, we propose that monitoring the IS may provide a forecast tool to determine RI periods. Other parameters, such as static stability, tangential wind, and water vapor mixing ratio may help identify other features of the storm, such as circulation and eyewall formation. The inertial stability (IS) trend during the period of rapid intensification, which occurred between 00Z and 06Z of September 3rd. Maximum values of IS were calculated before and during this period of RI within a region located 30-45 km from the center. In fact, this region could represent the eye-wall of Hurricane Felix.

  11. Hurricane Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... English Hurricane Safety Checklist - Arabic Hurricane Safety Checklist - Chinese Hurricane Safety Checklist - French Hurricane Safety Checklist - Haitian ... Cross serves in the US, its territories and military installations around the world. Please try again. Your ...

  12. Improved hurricane forecasting from a variational bogus and ozone data assimilation (BODA) scheme: case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yin; Zhang, Wei

    2016-12-01

    This study develops a proper way to incorporate Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) ozone data into the bogus data assimilation (BDA) initialization scheme for improving hurricane prediction. First, the observation operator at some model levels with the highest correlation coefficients is established to assimilate AIRS ozone data based on the correlation between total column ozone and potential vorticity (PV) ranging from 400 to 50 hPa level. Second, AIRS ozone data act as an augmentation to a BDA procedure using a four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system. Case studies of several hurricanes are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the bogus and ozone data assimilation (BODA) scheme. The statistical result indicates that assimilating AIRS ozone data at 4, 5, or 6 model levels can produce a significant improvement in hurricane track and intensity prediction, with reasonable computation time for the hurricane initialization. Moreover, a detailed analysis of how BODA scheme affects hurricane prediction is conducted for Hurricane Earl (2010). It is found that the new scheme developed in this study generates significant adjustments in the initial conditions (ICs) from the lower levels to the upper levels, compared with the BDA scheme. With the BODA scheme, hurricane development is found to be much more sensitive to the number of ozone data assimilation levels. In particular, the experiment with the assimilation of AIRS ozone data at proper number of model levels shows great capabilities in reproducing the intensity and intensity changes of Hurricane Earl, as well as improve the track prediction. These results suggest that AIRS ozone data convey valuable meteorological information in the upper troposphere, which can be assimilated into a numerical model to improve hurricane initialization when the low-level bogus data are included.

  13. Case study on visualizing hurricanes using illustration-inspired techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Alark; Caban, Jesus; Rheingans, Penny; Sparling, Lynn

    2009-01-01

    The devastating power of hurricanes was evident during the 2005 hurricane season, the most active season on record. This has prompted increased efforts by researchers to understand the physical processes that underlie the genesis, intensification, and tracks of hurricanes. This research aims at facilitating an improved understanding into the structure of hurricanes with the aid of visualization techniques. Our approach was developed by a mixed team of visualization and domain experts. To better understand these systems, and to explore their representation in NWP models, we use a variety of illustration-inspired techniques to visualize their structure and time evolution. Illustration-inspired techniques aid in the identification of the amount of vertical wind shear in a hurricane, which can help meteorologists predict dissipation. Illustration-style visualization, in combination with standard visualization techniques, helped explore the vortex rollup phenomena and the mesovortices contained within. We evaluated the effectiveness of our visualization with the help of six hurricane experts. The expert evaluation showed that the illustration-inspired techniques were preferred over existing tools. Visualization of the evolution of structural features is a prelude to a deeper visual analysis of the underlying dynamics.

  14. Observing storm surges from satellite altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Guoqi

    2016-07-01

    Storm surges can cause catastrophic damage to properties and loss of life in coastal communities. Thus it is important to enhance our capabilities of observing and forecasting storm surges for mitigating damage and loss. In this presentation we show examples of observing storm surges around the world using nadir satellite altimetry, during Hurricane Sandy, Igor, and Isaac, as well as other cyclone events. The satellite observations are evaluated against tide-gauge observations and discussed for dynamic mechanisms. We also show the potential of a new wide-swath altimetry mission, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), for observing storm surges.

  15. Uncertainty and feasibility of dynamical downscaling for modeling tropical cyclones for storm surge simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Taraphdar, Sourav; Wang, Taiping; Ruby Leung, L.; Grear, Molly

    2016-08-22

    This paper presents a modeling study conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of a regional model in simulating hurricane wind and pressure fields, and the feasibility of driving coastal storm surge simulation using an ensemble of region model outputs produced by 18 combinations of three convection schemes and six microphysics parameterizations, using Hurricane Katrina as a test case. Simulated wind and pressure fields were compared to observed H*Wind data for Hurricane Katrina and simulated storm surge was compared to observed high-water marks on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The ensemble modeling analysis demonstrated that the regional model was able to reproduce the characteristics of Hurricane Katrina with reasonable accuracy and can be used to drive the coastal ocean model for simulating coastal storm surge. Results indicated that the regional model is sensitive to both convection and microphysics parameterizations that simulate moist processes closely linked to the tropical cyclone dynamics that influence hurricane development and intensification. The Zhang and McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme and the Lim and Hong (WDM6) microphysics parameterization are the most skillful in simulating Hurricane Katrina maximum wind speed and central pressure, among the three convection and the six microphysics parameterizations. Error statistics of simulated maximum water levels were calculated for a baseline simulation with H*Wind forcing and the 18 ensemble simulations driven by the regional model outputs. The storm surge model produced the overall best results in simulating the maximum water levels using wind and pressure fields generated with the ZM convection scheme and the WDM6 microphysics parameterization.

  16. Brief communication "Hurricane Irene: a wake-up call for New York City?"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. J. H. Aerts

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The weakening of Irene from a Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm resulted in less damage in New York City (NYC than initially was anticipated. It is widely recognized that the storm surge and associated flooding could have been much more severe. In a recent study, we showed that a direct hit to the city from a hurricane may expose an enormous number of people to flooding. A major hurricane has the potential to cause large-scale damage in NYC. The city's resilience to flooding can be increased by improving and integrating flood insurance, flood zoning, and building code policies.

  17. Urban Stormwater Temperature Surges: A Central US Watershed Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean J. Zeiger

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Impacts of urban land use can include increased stormwater runoff temperature (Tw leading to receiving water quality impairment. There is therefore a need to target and mitigate sources of thermal pollution in urban areas. However, complex relationships between urban development, stormwater runoff and stream water heating processes are poorly understood. A nested-scale experimental watershed study design was used to investigate stormwater runoff temperature impacts to receiving waters in a representative mixed-use urbanizing watershed of the central US. Daily maximum Tw exceeded 35.0 °C (threshold for potential mortality of warm-water biota at an urban monitoring site for a total of five days during the study period (2011–2013. Sudden increases of more than 1.0 °C within a 15 min time interval of Tw following summer thunderstorms were significantly correlated (CI = 95%; p < 0.01 to cumulative percent urban land use (r2 = 0.98; n = 29. Differences in mean Tw between monitoring sites were significantly correlated (CI = 95%; p = 0.02 to urban land use practices, stream distance and increasing discharge. The effects of the 2012 Midwest USA drought and land use on Tw were also observed with maximum Tw 4.0 °C higher at an urban monitoring site relative to a rural site for 10.5 h. The current work provides quantitative evidence of acute increases in Tw related to urban land use. Results better inform land managers wishing to create management strategies designed to preserve suitable thermal stream habitats in urbanizing watersheds.

  18. A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oerlemans, J.; van Pelt, W. J. J.

    2015-04-01

    The climate sensitivity of Abrahamsenbreen, a 20 km long surge-type glacier in northern Spitsbergen, is studied with a simple glacier model. A scheme to describe the surges is included, which makes it possible to account for the effect of surges on the total mass budget of the glacier. A climate reconstruction back to AD 1300, based on ice-core data from Lomonosovfonna and climate records from Longyearbyen, is used to drive the model. The model is calibrated by requesting that it produce the correct Little Ice Age maximum glacier length and simulate the observed magnitude of the 1978 surge. Abrahamsenbreen is strongly out of balance with the current climate. If climatic conditions remain as they were for the period 1989-2010, the glacier will ultimately shrink to a length of about 4 km (but this will take hundreds of years). For a climate change scenario involving a 2 m year-1 rise of the equilibrium line from now onwards, we predict that in the year 2100 Abrahamsenbreen will be about 12 km long. The main effect of a surge is to lower the mean surface elevation and thereby to increase the ablation area, causing a negative perturbation of the mass budget. We found that the occurrence of surges leads to a faster retreat of the glacier in a warming climate. Because of the very small bed slope, Abrahamsenbreen is sensitive to small perturbations in the equilibrium-line altitude. If the equilibrium line were lowered by only 160 m, the glacier would steadily grow into Woodfjorddalen until, after 2000 years, it would reach Woodfjord and calving would slow down the advance. The bed topography of Abrahamsenbreen is not known and was therefore inferred from the slope and length of the glacier. The value of the plasticity parameter needed to do this was varied by +20 and -20%. After recalibration the same climate change experiments were performed, showing that a thinner glacier (higher bedrock in this case) in a warming climate retreats somewhat faster.

  19. Study of the Electric Filed Around a Metal Oxide Surge Arrester: Measurement and Simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Christodoulou C A; Spanias C A; Kontargyri V T; Gonos I F; Stathopulos I A

    2013-01-01

    The study of the electric field around a surge arrester is useful for design procedures and diagnostic tests.The current work computes the electric field around a medium voltage gapless surge arrester using 2D and 3D representation of the arrester.The 2D simulation design,which is described in IEC 60099-4 Standard,cannot include the non symmetrical parts of the arrester geometry and the test arrangement.3D simulation procedures have the advantage that takes into account these asymmetries,giving more accurate results for each measurement position.In order to confirm the suitability of the created models,the simulation results of the electric field,using the 2D and 3D edition of PC Opera,are compared with recorded measurements,which are obtained in laboratory using appropriate calibrated field meters.

  20. Numerical modeling of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and potential future hurricanes on spatial patterns of salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongqing; Chen, Qin; Hu, Kelin; Snedden, Gregg A.; Hartig, Ellen K.; Couvillion, Brady R.; Johnson, Cody L.; Orton, Philip M.

    2017-03-29

    The salt marshes of Jamaica Bay, managed by the New York City Department of Parks & Recreation and the Gateway National Recreation Area of the National Park Service, serve as a recreational outlet for New York City residents, mitigate flooding, and provide habitat for critical wildlife species. Hurricanes and extra-tropical storms have been recognized as one of the critical drivers of coastal wetland morphology due to their effects on hydrodynamics and sediment transport, deposition, and erosion processes. However, the magnitude and mechanisms of hurricane effects on sediment dynamics and associated coastal wetland morphology in the northeastern United States are poorly understood. In this study, the depth-averaged version of the Delft3D modeling suite, integrated with field measurements, was utilized to examine the effects of Hurricane Sandy and future potential hurricanes on salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City. Hurricane Sandy-induced wind, waves, storm surge, water circulation, sediment transport, deposition, and erosion were simulated by using the modeling system in which vegetation effects on flow resistance, surge reduction, wave attenuation, and sedimentation were also incorporated. Observed marsh elevation change and accretion from a rod surface elevation table and feldspar marker horizons and cesium-137- and lead-210-derived long-term accretion rates were used to calibrate and validate the wind-waves-surge-sediment transport-morphology coupled model.The model results (storm surge, waves, and marsh deposition and erosion) agreed well with field measurements. The validated modeling system was then used to detect salt marsh morphological change due to Hurricane Sandy across the entire Jamaica Bay over the short-term (for example, 4 days and 1 year) and long-term (for example, 5 and 10 years). Because Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Irene (2011) were two large and destructive tropical cyclones which hit the northeast coast, the validated coupled

  1. A Simulation Study of Lightning Surge Characteristics of a Distribution Line Using the FDTD Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuura, Susumu; Tatematsu, Akiyoshi; Noda, Taku; Yokoyama, Shigeru

    Recently, numerical electromagnetic field computation methods, which solve Maxwell's equations, have become a practical choice for the lightning surge analysis of power systems. Studies of lightning surge response of a transmission tower and lightning-induced voltages on a distribution line have already been carried out using the numerical electromagnetic field computation methods. However, a direct lightning stroke to a distribution line has not yet been studied. The authors have previously carried out pulse tests using a reduced-scale distribution line model which simulate the direct lightning stroke to a distribution line. In this paper, first, the pulse test results are simulated using the FDTD (Finite Difference Time Domain) method which is one of the numerical electromagnetic field computation methods, and comparisons are shown to validate the application of the FDTD method. Secondly, we present lightning surge characteristics of an actual-scale distribution line obtained by the FDTD method. The FDTD simulation takes into account the following items: (i) detailed structure of the distribution line; (ii) resistivity of the ground soil; (iii) propagation speed of the lightning return stroke.

  2. Using a Geographic Information System to Assess the Risk of Hurricane Hazards on the Maya Civilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Sever, T.

    2014-12-01

    The extent of the Maya civilization spanned across portions of modern day Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Paleoclimatic studies suggest this region has been affected by strong hurricanes for the past six thousand years, reinforced by archeological evidence from Mayan records indicating they experienced strong storms. It is theorized hurricanes aided in the collapse of the Maya, damaging building structures, agriculture, and ceasing industry activities. Today, this region is known for its active tropical climatology, being hit by numerous strong storms including Hurricane Dean, Iris, Keith, and Mitch. This research uses a geographic information system (GIS) to model hurricane hazards, and assess the risk posed on the Maya civilization. GIS has the ability to handle various layer components making it optimal for combining parameters necessary for assessing the risk of experiencing hurricane related hazards. For this analysis, high winds, storm surge flooding, non-storm surge related flooding, and rainfall triggered landslides were selected as the primary hurricane hazards. Data sets used in this analysis include the National Climatic Data Center International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardships (IBTrACS) hurricane tracks, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model, WorldClim monthly accumulated precipitation, USGS HydroSHEDS river locations, Harmonized World Soil Database soil types, and known Maya site locations from the Electronic Atlas of Ancient Maya Sites. ArcGIS and ENVI software were utilized to process data and model hurricane hazards. To assess locations at risk of experiencing high winds, a model was created using ArcGIS Model Builder to map each storm's temporal wind profile, and adapted to simulate forward storm velocity, and storm frequency. Modeled results were then combined with physical land characteristics, meteorological, and hydrologic data to identify areas likely affected. Certain areas along the eastern

  3. THE STUDY OF ALLOCATION OF SURGE BUNKER IN MINE HAULAGE SYSTEM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王喜富; 张幼蒂; 张达贤

    1997-01-01

    Based on the function analysis of surge bunker in mine haulage system, the authors raise the calculation methods of the total output of a mine haulage system. Taking the maximum of system's total throughput as a objective, the method of determining the surge bunker's rational size is put forward. Also, the problems of rational position of surge bunker are analysesed.

  4. Improvements in the Scalability of the NASA Goddard Multiscale Modeling Framework for Hurricane Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiun-Dar

    2007-01-01

    Improving our understanding of hurricane inter-annual variability and the impact of climate change (e.g., doubling CO2 and/or global warming) on hurricanes brings both scientific and computational challenges to researchers. As hurricane dynamics involves multiscale interactions among synoptic-scale flows, mesoscale vortices, and small-scale cloud motions, an ideal numerical model suitable for hurricane studies should demonstrate its capabilities in simulating these interactions. The newly-developed multiscale modeling framework (MMF, Tao et al., 2007) and the substantial computing power by the NASA Columbia supercomputer show promise in pursuing the related studies, as the MMF inherits the advantages of two NASA state-of-the-art modeling components: the GEOS4/fvGCM and 2D GCEs. This article focuses on the computational issues and proposes a revised methodology to improve the MMF's performance and scalability. It is shown that this prototype implementation enables 12-fold performance improvements with 364 CPUs, thereby making it more feasible to study hurricane climate.

  5. An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  6. Sedimentology and hydrodynamic implications of a coarse-grained hurricane sequence in a carbonate reef setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiske, M.; Jaffe, B.E.

    2009-01-01

    Storms and associated surges are major coast-shaping processes. Nevertheless, no typical sequences for storm surge deposits in different coastal settings have been established. This study interprets a coarse-grained hurricane ridge deposit on the island of Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles. The sequence was deposited during Hurricane Lenny in November 1999. Insight is gained into the hydrodynamics of surge flow by interpreting textural trends, particle imbrication, and deposit geometry. Vertical textural variations, caused by time-dependent hydrodynamic changes, were used to subdivide the deposit into depositional units that correspond to different stages of the surge, such as setup, peak, and return flow. Particle size and imbrication trends and geometry of the units reflect landward bed-load transport of components during the setup, a nondirectional flow with sediment falling out of suspension during the peak, and a seaward bedload transport during the return flow. Formation of a ridge during setup affected the texture of the return flow unit. Changing angles of imbrication reflect alternating flow velocities during each phase. Normal grading during setup and inverse grading during return flow are caused by decelerating and accelerating flow, respectively. Hence, the interpreted deposit seems to represent the first described complete hurricane surge sequence from a carbonate environment. ?? 2009 Geological Society of America.

  7. THEORETICAL,NUMERICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF WATER HAMMER IN PIPE SYSTEM WITH COLUMN SURGE CHAMBER

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhou Ze-xuan; Tan Soon Keat

    2003-01-01

    A new kind of governing equations for water hammer based on the elastic column theory was proposed and adopted to analyse water hammer phenomenon in the pipe system with a vertical column surge chamber and water level fluctuation in the surge chamber during pressure transient. The wrongness existing in the classical governing equations for water hammer was analysed. A typical reservoir-valve pipe system was chosen as an example to verify the new governing equations numerically and experimentally. The finite difference method based on the method of characteristics was used to solve numerically the nonlinear characteristic equations. The temporal evolutions of transient volume flux and head and of water level fluctuation for various surge chamber configurations were worked out, assuming that the air in the surge chamber are compressible. The relevant experiment was conducted to verify the new governing equations and numerical method. The numerical and experimental results show that the new governing equations are valid and the conventional assumption that the pressure head at the base of a surge chamber equals that of the static head above it during pressure transient is not always valid. The surge chamber generally reises the period of transient pressure wave in pipe system, reduces the maximum pressure envelope and lifts the minimum envelope substantially. The water level fluctuation in the surge chamber was numerically and experimentally observed. Increasing the size of the surge chamber and/or decreasing the initial air pressure in the surge chamber enhance the effectiveness of the surge chamber in suppressing pressure wave.

  8. A numerical study on the impact of tidal waves on the storm surge in the north of Liaodong Bay

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KONG Xiangpeng

    2014-01-01

    A storm surge is an abnormal sharp rise or fall in the seawater level produced by the strong wind and low pressure field of an approaching storm system. A storm tide is a water level rise or fall caused by the com-bined effect of the storm surge and an astronomical tide. The storm surge depends on many factors, such as the tracks of typhoon movement, the intensity of typhoon, the topography of sea area, the amplitude of tidal wave, the period during which the storm surge couples with the tidal wave. When coupling with different parts of a tidal wave, the storm surges caused by a typhoon vary widely. The variation of the storm surges is studied. An once-in-a-century storm surge was caused by Typhoon 7203 at Huludao Port in the north of the Liaodong Bay from July 26th to 27th, 1972. The maximum storm surge is about 1.90 m. The wind field and pressure field used in numerical simulations in the research were derived from the historical data of the Typhoon 7203 from July 23rd to 28th, 1972. DHI Mike21 is used as the software tools. The whole Bohai Sea is defined as the computational domain. The numerical simulation models are forced with sea levels at water boundaries, that is the tide along the Bohai Straits from July 18th to 29th (2012). The tide wave and the storm tides caused by the wind field and pressure field mentioned above are calculated in the numerical simulations. The coupling processes of storm surges and tidal waves are simulated in the following way. The first simulation start date and time are 00:00 July 18th, 2012;the second simulation start date and time are 03:00 July 18th, 2012. There is a three-hour lag between the start date and time of the simulation and that of the former one, the last simulation start date and time are 00:00 July 25th, 2012. All the simulations have a same duration of 5 days, which is same as the time length of typhoon data. With the first day and the second day simulation output, which is affected by the initial field, being

  9. A prospective study of religiousness and psychological distress among female survivors of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Christian S; Rhodes, Jean E; Pérez, John E

    2012-03-01

    This prospective study examined the pathways by which religious involvement affected the post-disaster psychological functioning of women who survived Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The participants were 386 low-income, predominantly Black, single mothers. The women were enrolled in the study before the hurricane, providing a rare opportunity to document changes in mental health from before to after the storm, and to assess the protective role of religious involvement over time. Results of structural equation modeling indicated that, controlling for level of exposure to the hurricanes, pre-disaster physical health, age, and number of children, pre-disaster religiousness predicted higher levels of post-disaster (1) social resources and (2) optimism and sense of purpose. The latter, but not the former, was associated with better post-disaster psychological outcome. Mediation analysis confirmed the mediating role of optimism and sense of purpose.

  10. Adolescent Survivors of Hurricane Katrina: A Pilot Study of Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal Axis Functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfefferbaum, Betty; Tucker, Phebe; Nitiéma, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Background: The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis constitutes an important biological component of the stress response commonly studied through the measurement of cortisol. Limited research has examined HPA axis dysregulation in youth exposed to disasters. Objective: This study examined HPA axis activation in adolescent Hurricane Katrina…

  11. Vulnerability of Coastal Communities from Storm Surge and Flood Disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bathi, Jejal Reddy; Das, Himangshu S

    2016-02-19

    Disasters in the form of coastal storms and hurricanes can be very destructive. Preparing for anticipated effects of such disasters can help reduce the public health and economic burden. Identifying vulnerable population groups can help prioritize resources for the most needed communities. This paper presents a quantitative framework for vulnerability measurement that incorporates both socioeconomic and flood inundation vulnerability. The approach is demonstrated for three coastal communities in Mississippi with census tracts being the study unit. The vulnerability results are illustrated as thematic maps for easy usage by planners and emergency responders to assist in prioritizing their actions to vulnerable populations during storm surge and flood disasters.

  12. A Pilot Study of Pedestrians with Visual Impairments Detecting Traffic Gaps and Surges Containing Hybrid Vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emerson, Robert Wall; Naghshineh, Koorosh; Hapeman, Julie; Wiener, William

    2011-03-01

    The increasing number of hybrid and quiet internal combustion engine vehicles may impact the travel abilities of pedestrians who are blind. Pedestrians who rely on auditory cues for structuring their travel may face challenges in making crossing decisions in the presence of quiet vehicles. This article describes results of initial studies looking at the crossing decisions of pedestrians who are blind at an uncontrolled crossing (no traffic control) and a light controlled intersection. The presence of hybrid vehicles was a factor in each situation. At the uncontrolled crossing, Toyota hybrids were most difficult to detect but crossing decisions were made more often in small gaps ended by a Honda hybrid. These effects were seen only at speed under 20 mph. At the light controlled intersection, parallel surges of traffic were most difficult to detect when made up only of a Ford Escape hybrid. Results suggest that more controlled studies of vehicle characteristics impacting crossing decisions of pedestrians who are blind are warranted.

  13. Storm surge and wave simulations in the Gulf of Mexico using a consistent drag relation for atmospheric and storm surge models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Vatvani

    2012-07-01

    results obtained, we conclude that, for a good reproduction of the storm surges under hurricane conditions, Makin's new drag parameterization is favourable above the traditional Charnock relation. Furthermore, we are encouraged by these results to continue the studies and establish the effect of improved Makin's wind drag parameterization in the wave model.

    The results from this study will be used to evaluate the relevance of extending the present towards implementation of a similar wind drag parameterization in the SWAN wave model, in line with our aim to apply a consistent wind drag formulation throughout the entire storm surge modelling approach.

  14. Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

  15. An ensemble study of extreme North Sea storm surges in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like the Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. We find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  16. Monitoring Hurricane Effects on Aquifer Salinity Using ALSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedighi, A.; Starek, M. J.

    2005-12-01

    During the Atlantic hurricane season of 2004, the Florida Pan Handle, Gulf Coast region, was impacted directly by three major hurricanes within approximately a one-month time period. The short temporal span between impacts coupled with the severity of the storms resulted in drastic changes to the littoral zone geomorphology including extensive shoreline erosion and accretion that directly affected the subsurface hydrogeologic environment. The most important direct physical effects of a hurricane are the following: coastal erosion, shoreline inundation owing to higher than normal tide levels plus increased temporary surge levels during storms, and saltwater intrusion primarily into estuaries and groundwater aquifers. Erosion and deposition during the hurricane change the elevation, which causes change in the position of shoreline. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of sea level inundation due to the hurricanes on the near shore subsurface freshwater-saltwater interface. By utilizing high-resolution Airborne Laser Swath Mapping (ALSM) altimetry data acquired shortly before and after the three major hurricane landfalls, the change in shoreline topography was estimated to determine both small-scale and large-scale horizontal encroachment and volumetric change in shoreline. This information was used to develop a before and after variable density groundwater flow model to determine the impact of the hurricanes on the subsurface saltwater-freshwater interface. SEAWAT (Langevin 2001; Guo and Langevin 2002), which simulates three-dimensional, variable-density groundwater flow following a modular structure similar to MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh 1988), was selected to represent the saltwater-freshwater interface in this investigation.

  17. Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

    KAUST Repository

    Mandli, Kyle T.

    2014-03-01

    An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

  18. Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Storm Surge

    CERN Document Server

    Mandli, Kyle T

    2014-01-01

    An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the \\geoclaw framework and compared to \\adcirc for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run.

  19. STUDY ON SURGE ARRESTER PERFORMANCE DUE TO LIGHTNING STROKE IN 20 KV DISTRIBUTION LINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agung Warsito

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Electric energy has been transmiting from power station to end user with transmission and distribution lines.Lightning strokes are problems that occure in transmission and distribution lines and make them fault when theelectric energy were transmited. Surge Diverter or Lightning Arrester has been installing to reduce these faults.In this paper the simulation of lightning stroke and lightning arrester performance on distribution lines 20 kVwere done using EMTP (Electromagnetic Transient Program. Some parameters such us impuls voltage andincreasing voltage on distribution line was inverstigated. As case study in this simulation, Mojosongo 1 mainfeeder 20 kV three phase lines were used.The simulation results show that the lightning stroke 20 kA in By1-61-61E-84-9I on S phase at 0,1 ms, makevoltage on S phase was increased about 1,3054 MV. For R phase and T phase will increase of induced voltagewere 0.79539 MV and 0.80484 MV. We also show the performance of MOV Arrester (Metal Oxide Varistor inovercoming lightning stroke trouble, where arrester can decrease voltage up to 15.198 kV on S phase, while atR phase and T phase arrester can decrease voltage up to 11.375 kV and 13.616 kV.

  20. Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Openstreetmap Data after Natural Disasters: a Case Study of Haiti Under Hurricane Matthew

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, J.; Li, L.; Zhou, Q.

    2017-09-01

    Volunteered geographic information (VGI) has been widely adopted as an alternative for authoritative geographic information in disaster management considering its up-to-date data. OpenStreetMap, in particular, is now aiming at crisis mapping for humanitarian purpose. This paper illustrated that natural disaster played an essential role in updating OpenStreetMap data after Haiti was hit by Hurricane Matthew in October, 2016. Spatial-temporal analysis of updated OSM data was conducted in this paper. Correlation of features was also studied to figure out whether updates of data were coincidence or the results of the hurricane. Spatial pattern matched the damaged areas and temporal changes fitted the time when disaster occurred. High level of correlation values of features were recorded when hurricane occurred, suggesting that updates in data were led by the hurricane.

  1. Mechanisms for Secondary Eyewall Formation in Tropical Cyclones: A Case Study of Hurricane Katrina (2005)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Rivera, J. M.; Lin, Y.

    2013-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to simulate the last eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) of Hurricane Katrina (2005) just before it's landfall in the Louisiana coastline. In this study, we pursue a complete understanding of the physics behind the secondary eyewall formation (SEF) in tropical cyclones. The simulation results show the occurrence of the early stages of an ERC in the simulated storm just before landfall. This confirms that with the appropriate set of physics parameterization schemes, grid spacing and initial conditions, the numerical model is able to reproduce ERCs on certain tropical cyclones with no data assimilation or extra data inputs. Strong updrafts are observed to converge in a ring outside the primary eyewall of Hurricane Katrina (2005) suggesting SEF during that period. The increase of divergence outside the primary eyewall with an outer-ring of convergence forming above the boundary layer can be part of the mechanisms that lead to SEF. Also, potential vorticity (PV) field is analyzed for its possible relationship with the development of the secondary eyewall. This detailed study of the pre-ERC events in the inner-core of Hurricane Katrina can build the foundations for testing some of the existing hypotheses for the development of secondary eyewalls leading to new ideas behind their formation.

  2. Projecting the Current & Future Impact of Storm Surges on Coastal Flood Extent at Pigeon Point, South-West Tobago, through Hydrodynamic Modelling Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seenath, Avidesh; Wilson, Matthew; Miller, Keith

    2014-05-01

    Under climate change, sea levels will continue to rise and the intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes will amplify. Consequently, the incidence rate of high magnitude storm surges may increase which will enhance the probability of coastal flood events in low lying coastal communities. The purpose of this study is to determine the current and potential future areas that may be at risk of flooding from storm surges, of different magnitudes, for the low lying Pigeon Point area of south-west Tobago. The objective of this research is to develop an understanding of the extent of flooding that these events can ensue on low lying coastal areas that are widespread through the Caribbean under current and future sea level conditions. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood model was created for Pigeon Point using the model code LISFLOOD-FP by incorporating topographic data of the terrain and sea bed referenced to mean sea level together with tides. This was used to assess the impact of different storm surge levels on the study area. Storm surge scenarios were computed using information acquired from the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale which provides an estimate of storm surge height based on the category of hurricane, existing projections of global sea level rise and recorded values of high tide for Pigeon Point. Results indicate that the quantity of area likely to flood, in each surge scenario, increases significantly under future projected global sea level conditions compared to current conditions. The potential implications of this on the local population, island's economy and beach geomorphology are examined. Results obtained were incorporated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) to produce current and future flood maps indicating potential inundation extent based on storm surge height to guide coastal flood management programmes in south-west Tobago. We conclude that greater focus should be placed on implementing flood mitigation measures to protect our coasts and

  3. Hurricane! Coping With Disaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lifland, Jonathan

    A new AGU book, Hurricane! Coping With Disaster, analyzes the progress made in hurricane science and recounts how advances in the field have affected the public's and the scientific community's understanding of these storms. The book explores the evolution of hurricane study, from the catastrophic strike in Galveston, Texas in 1900—still the worst natural disaster in United States history—to today's satellite and aircraft observations that track a storm's progress and monitor its strength. In this issue, Eos talks with Robert Simpson, the books' senior editor.Simpson has studied severe storms for more than 60 years, including conducting one of the first research flights through a hurricane in 1945. He was the founding director of the (U.S.) National Hurricane Research Project and has served as director of the National Hurricane Center. In collaboration with Herbert Saffir, Simpson helped design and implement the Saffir/Simpson damage potential scale that is widely used to identify potential damage from hurricanes.

  4. The role of mangroves in attenuating storm surges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Keqi; Liu, Huiqing; Li, Yuepeng; Xu, Hongzhou; Shen, Jian; Rhome, Jamie; Smith, J.

    2012-01-01

    Field observations and numerical simulations indicate that the 6-to-30-km-wide mangrove forest along the Gulf Coast of South Florida effectively attenuated stormsurges from a Category 3 hurricane, Wilma, and protected the inland wetland by reducing an inundation area of 1800 km2 and restricting surge inundation inside the mangrove zone. The surge amplitude decreases at a rate of 40–50 cm/km across the mangrove forest and at a rate of 20 cm/km across the areas with a mixture of mangrove islands with open water. In contrast, the amplitudes of stormsurges at the front of the mangrove zone increase by about 10–30% because of the "blockage" of mangroves to surge water, which can cause greater impacts on structures at the front of mangroves than the case without mangroves. The mangrove forest can also protect the wetlands behind the mangrove zone against surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane with a fast forward speed of 11.2 m/s (25 mph). However, the forest cannot fully attenuate stormsurges from a Category 5 hurricane with a slow forward speed of 2.2 m/s (5 mph) and reduced surges can still affect the wetlands behind the mangrove zone. The effects of widths of mangrove zones on reducing surge amplitudes are nonlinear with large reduction rates (15–30%) for initial width increments and small rates (<5%) for subsequent width increments.

  5. Hurricane Katrina disaster diplomacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelman, Ilan

    2007-09-01

    Hurricane Katrina struck the United States at the end of August 2005. The consequent devastation appeared to be beyond the US government's ability to cope with and aid was offered by several states in varying degrees of conflict with the US. Hurricane Katrina therefore became a potential case study for 'disaster diplomacy', which examines how disaster-related activities do and do not yield diplomatic gains. A review of past disaster diplomacy work is provided. The literature's case studies are then categorised using a new typology: propinquity, aid relationship, level and purpose. Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath are then placed in the context of the US government's foreign policy, the international response to the disaster and the US government's reaction to these responses. The evidence presented is used to discuss the potential implications of Hurricane Katrina disaster diplomacy, indicating that factors other than disaster-related activities generally dominate diplomatic relations and foreign policy.

  6. Hurricane Effects on Mangrove Canopies Observed from MODIS and SPOT Imagery

    CERN Document Server

    Parenti, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The effects of four hurricanes on protected mangroves in southwest Florida (Katrina and Wilma) and the Yucatan Peninsula (Emily and Dean) were assessed using paired sets of 20m multispectral SPOT and 16-day 500m MODIS images. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were used to assess possible damage to and recovery of mangrove canopies associated with each storm event. The results revealed decreases in the NDVI and EVI of mangrove canopies consistent with storm effects, although the effects in South Florida and Sian Ka'an were highly variable. Hurricane Wilma produced a large decrease in NDVI and EVI although values recovered within a year, suggesting resilience to this storm. Rainfall associated with Hurricane Emily apparently increased mangrove photosynthetic activity owing to the location of landfall outside the study area, the small size of the wind field and the apparent lack of storm surge. MODIS NDVI time series revealed pronounced seasonality in mangrove ...

  7. Modelling hurricane exposure and wind speed on a mesoclimate scale: a case study from Cusuco NP, Honduras.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sven P Batke

    Full Text Available High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP, Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS's were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field. Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%.

  8. Modelling hurricane exposure and wind speed on a mesoclimate scale: a case study from Cusuco NP, Honduras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batke, Sven P; Jocque, Merlijn; Kelly, Daniel L

    2014-01-01

    High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP), Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS) through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS's were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction) explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field). Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%.

  9. Implementing Extreme Value Analysis in a Geospatial Workflow for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catelli, J.; Nong, S.

    2014-12-01

    Gridded data of 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) storm surge flood elevations for the United States, Gulf of Mexico, and East Coast are critical to understanding this natural hazard. Storm surge heights were calculated across the study area utilizing SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model data for thousands of synthetic US landfalling hurricanes. Based on the results derived from SLOSH, a series of interpolations were performed using spatial analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) at both the SLOSH basin and the synthetic event levels. The result was a single grid of maximum flood elevations for each synthetic event. This project addresses the need to utilize extreme value theory in a geospatial environment to analyze coincident cells across multiple synthetic events. The results are 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) values for each grid cell in the study area. This talk details a geospatial approach to move raster data to SciPy's NumPy Array structure using the Python programming language. The data are then connected through a Python library to an outside statistical package like R to fit cell values to extreme value theory distributions and return values for specified recurrence intervals. While this is not a new process, the value behind this work is the ability to keep this process in a single geospatial environment and be able to easily replicate this process for other natural hazard applications and extreme event modeling.

  10. Negotiating Uncertainty: Jamaican Small Farmers’ Adaptation and Coping Strategies, Before and After Hurricanes—A Case Study of Hurricane Dean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donovan Campbell

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, Jamaica has been seriously affected by a number of extreme meteorological events. The one discussed here, Hurricane Dean, passed along the south coast of the island in August 2007, damaging crops and disrupting livelihood activities for many small-scale farmers. This study is based on detailed ethnographic research in the southern coastal region of St. Elizabeth parish during the passage of Hurricane Dean, and explores the ways in which small farmers negotiate the stressors associated with hurricane events. The study employed a mix methods approach based on a survey of 282 farming households. The paper documents coping strategies employed by farmers in the immediate period of Hurricane Dean to reduce damage to their farming systems, and highlights the positive correlation between farmers’ perceptions of hurricanes and degree of damage to local farming systems. In addition, through an analysis of socio-economic and environmental data, the paper provides an understanding of the determinants of adaptive capacity and strategy among farmers in the area. The study indicated that despite high levels of vulnerability, farmers have achieved successful coping and adaptation at the farm level.

  11. Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes

    OpenAIRE

    Khare, Shree; Jewson, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling hurricanes, and for intense hurricanes only. We find that the averaging lengths needed for optimal predictions of numbers of intense hurricanes are longer than those needed for optimal predictions of numbers of hurricanes of all strengths.

  12. Atlantic hurricane response to geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, John; Grinsted, Aslak; Ji, Duoying; Yu, Xiaoyong; Guo, Xiaoran

    2015-04-01

    Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase - perhaps by a factor of 5 for a 2°C mean global warming. Geoengineering by sulphate aerosol injection preferentially cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 6 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. We find that although temperatures are ameliorated by geoengineering, the numbers of storm surge events as big as that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are only slightly reduced compared with no geoengineering. As higher levels of sulphate aerosol injection produce diminishing returns in terms of cooling, but cause undesirable effects in various regions, it seems that stratospheric aerosol geoengineering is not an effective method of controlling hurricane damage.

  13. A Numerical Study of the Effect of GOES Sounder Cloud-Cleared Brightness Temperatures on the Prediction of Hurricane Felix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Xiaolei; Xiao, Qingnong; Lipton, Alan E.; Modica, George D.

    2001-01-01

    The influence of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) brightness temperature data on the numerical simulations of Hurricane Felix is investigated. Satellite data are included as an augmentation to a bogus data assimilation (BDA) procedure using a mesoscale adjoint modeling system. The assimilation of satellite data modified not only the environmental flow but also the structure of the initial vortex, which is located over a region devoid of satellite data. This modification resulted in a reduction of the 12-h forecast errors verified by radiosonde data. Despite the fact that the forecast using only the bogus surface low at the initial time was very good, track and intensity forecasts beyond 2 days of model integration were shown to be improved further by including satellite data in the initialization procedure. Differences in the prediction of Hurricane Felix with and without satellite data were also found in the prediction of the upper-level jet, the cold temperature trough ahead of the hurricane, the size of the hurricane eye, and the location of the maximum hydrometeor. Although the focus of this study is to assess the effect of the direct use of satellite brightness temperature data on hurricane prediction, it is also noted that the BDA experiment including only the bogus data shows a positive effect of the BDA vortex on the environmental flow during the forecast period, as verified by satellite observations.

  14. Hurricane Season

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JENNIFER; JETT

    2008-01-01

    Three years after Katrina,the United States isdetermined not to repeatits mistakes This year has seen an unusually activeand deadly hurricane season, asstorms line up in the Atlantic Oceanto pummel the Caribbean and UnitedStates coastline.

  15. Application of High-Speed Infrared Imaging to Study Transient Joule Heating in Station Class Zinc Oxide Surge Arresters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dinwiddie, R. B.; Wang, H.; Johnnerfelt, B.

    2004-03-15

    Zinc Oxide based surge arresters are widely used to safeguard and improve reliability of the electrical power delivering and transmission systems. The primary application of surge arresters is to protect valuable components such as transformers from lightning strikes and switching transients in the transmission lines. Metal-oxide-varistor blocks (MOV, e.g. ZnO) are used in surge arrester assemblies. ORNL has developed an advanced infrared imaging technique to monitor the joule heating during transient heating of small varistors. In a recent short-term R&D effort, researchers from ABB and ORNL have expanded the use of IR imaging to larger station-class arrester blocks. An on-site visit to the ABB facility demonstrated that the use of IR imaging is not only feasible but also has the potential to improve arrester quality and reliability. The ASEA Brown Bower (ABB) Power and Technology & Development Company located at Greensburg PA having benefited from collaborative R&D cooperation with ORNL. ABB has decided a follow-on CRADA project is very important. While the previous efforts to study surge arresters included broader studies of IR imaging and computer modeling, ABB has recognized the potential of IR imaging, decided to focus on this particular area. ABB plans to use this technique to systematically study the possible defects in the arrester fabrication process. ORNL will improve the real-time monitoring capability and provide analysis of the infrared images. More importantly, the IR images will help us understand transient heating in a ceramic material from the scientific standpoint. With the improved IR imaging ABB and ORNL will employ the IR system to visualize manufacturing defects that could not be detected otherwise. The proposed on-site tests at ABB Power Technology & Development processing facility will identify the defects and also allow quick adjustments to be made since the resulting products can be inspected immediately. ABB matched the DOE $50K funding

  16. Contribution of recent hurricanes to wetland sedimentation in coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kam-biu; Bianchette, Thomas; Zou, Lei; Qiang, Yi; Lam, Nina

    2017-04-01

    Hurricanes are important agents of sediment deposition in the wetlands of coastal Louisiana. Since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005, coastal Louisiana has been impacted by Hurricanes Gustav (2008), Ike (2008), and Isaac (2012). By employing the principles and methods of paleotempestology we have identified the storm deposits attributed to the three most recent hurricanes in several coastal lakes and swamps in Louisiana. However, the spatial distribution and volume of these storm depositions cannot be easily inferred from stratigraphic data derived from a few locations. Here we report on results from a GIS study to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of storm deposition based on data extracted from the voluminous CRMS (Coastal Reference Monitoring System) database, which contains vertical accretion rate measurements obtained from 390 wetland sites over various time intervals during the past decade. Wetland accretion rates averaged about 2.89 cm/yr from stations sampled before Hurricane Isaac, 4.04 cm/yr during the 7-month period encompassing Isaac, and 2.38 cm/yr from sites established and sampled after Isaac. Generally, the wetland accretion rates attributable to the Isaac effects were 40% and 70% greater than before and after the event, respectively. Accretion rates associated with Isaac were highest at wetland sites along the Mississippi River and its tributaries instead of along the path of the hurricane, suggesting that freshwater flooding from fluvial channels, enhanced by the storm surge from the sea, is the main mechanism responsible for increased accretion in the wetlands. Our GIS work has recently been expanded to include other recent hurricanes. Preliminary results indicate that, for non-storm periods, the average wetland accretion rates between Katrina/Rita and Gustav/Ike was 2.58 cm/yr; that between Gustav/Ike and Isaac was 1.95 cm/yr; and that after Isaac was 2.37 cm/yr. In contrast, the accretion rates attributable to the effects of Gustav

  17. High resolution field monitoring in coastal wetlands of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic to support quantification of storm surge attenuation at the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquier, A. E.; Haddad, J.; Lawler, S.; Garzon Hervas, J. L.; Ferreira, C.

    2015-12-01

    Hurricane Sandy (2012) demonstrated the vulnerability of the US East Coast to extreme events, and motivated the exploration of resilient coastal defenses that incorporate both hard engineering and natural strategies such as the restoration, creation and enhancement of coastal wetlands and marshes. Past laboratory and numerical studies have indicated the potential of wetlands to attenuate storm surge, and have demonstrated the complexity of the surge hydrodynamic interactions with wetlands. Many factors control the propagation of surge in these natural systems including storm characteristics, storm-induced hydrodynamics, landscape complexity, vegetation biomechanical properties and the interactions of these different factors. While previous field studies have largely focused on the impact of vegetation characteristics on attenuation processes, few have been undertaken with holistic consideration of these factors and their interactions. To bridge this gap of in-situ field data and to support the calibration of storm surge and wave numerical models such that wetlands can be correctly parametrized on a regional scale, we are carrying out high resolution surveys of hydrodynamics (pressure, current intensity and direction), morphology (topo-bathymetry, micro-topography) and vegetation (e.g. stem density, height, vegetation frontal area) in 4 marshes along the Chesapeake Bay. These areas are representative of the ecosystems and morphodynamic functions present in this region, from the tidal Potomac marshes to the barrier-island back-bays of the Delmarva Peninsula. The field monitoring program supports the investigation of the influence of different types of vegetation on water level, swell and wind wave attenuation and morphological evolution during storm surges. This dataset is also used to calibrate and validate numerical simulations of hurricane storm surge propagation at regional and local scales and to support extreme weather coastal resilience planning in the region

  18. Substorm associated radar auroral surges: a statistical study and possible generation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. Shand

    Full Text Available Substorm-associated radar auroral surges (SARAS are a short lived (15–90 minutes and spatially localised (~5° of latitude perturbation of the plasma convection pattern observed within the auroral E-region. The understanding of such phenomena has important ramifications for the investigation of the larger scale plasma convection and ultimately the coupling of the solar wind, magnetosphere and ionosphere system. A statistical investigation is undertaken of SARAS, observed by the Sweden And Britain Radar Experiment (SABRE, in order to provide a more extensive examination of the local time occurrence and propagation characteristics of the events. The statistical analysis has determined a local time occurrence of observations between 1420 MLT and 2200 MLT with a maximum occurrence centred around 1700 MLT. The propagation velocity of the SARAS feature through the SABRE field of view was found to be predominately L-shell aligned with a velocity centred around 1750 m s–1 and within the range 500 m s–1 and 3500 m s–1. This comprehensive examination of the SARAS provides the opportunity to discuss, qualitatively, a possible generation mechanism for SARAS based on a proposed model for the production of a similar phenomenon referred to as sub-auroral ion drifts (SAIDs. The results of the comparison suggests that SARAS may result from a similar geophysical mechanism to that which produces SAID events, but probably occurs at a different time in the evolution of the event.

    Key words. Substorms · Auroral surges · Plasma con-vection · Sub-auroral ion drifts

  19. Improving Short-Range Ensemble Kalman Storm Surge Forecasting Using Robust Adaptive Inflation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad

    2013-08-01

    This paper presents a robust ensemble filtering methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, which has been implemented in the framework of the H∞ filter. By design, an H∞ filter is more robust than the common Kalman filter in the sense that the estimation error in the H∞ filter has, in general, a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation. The computational hydrodynamical model used in this study is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model. The authors assimilate data obtained from Hurricanes Katrina and Ike as test cases. The results clearly show that the H∞-based SEIK filter provides more accurate short-range forecasts of storm surge compared to recently reported data assimilation results resulting from the standard SEIK filter.

  20. Hurricane Impacts on Ecological Services and Economic Values of Coastal Urban Forest: A Case Study of Pensacola, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    As urbanized areas continue to grow and green spaces dwindle, the importance of urban forests increases for both ecologically derived health benefits and for their potential to mitigate climate change. This study examined pre- and post- hurricane conditions of Pensacola's urban f...

  1. Hurricane Impacts on Ecological Services and Economic Values of Coastal Urban Forest: A Case Study of Pensacola, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    As urbanized areas continue to grow and green spaces dwindle, the importance of urban forests increases for both ecologically derived health benefits and for their potential to mitigate climate change. This study examined pre- and post- hurricane conditions of Pensacola's urban f...

  2. Forecasting hurricane impact on coastal topography: Hurricane Ike

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Turco, Michael J.; East, Jeffery W.; Taylor, Arthur A.; Shaffer, Wilson A.

    2010-01-01

    Extreme storms can have a profound impact on coastal topography and thus on ecosystems and human-built structures within coastal regions. For instance, landfalls of several recent major hurricanes have caused significant changes to the U.S. coastline, particularly along the Gulf of Mexico. Some of these hurricanes (e.g., Ivan in 2004, Katrina and Rita in 2005, and Gustav and Ike in 2008) led to shoreline position changes of about 100 meters. Sand dunes, which protect the coast from waves and surge, eroded, losing several meters of elevation in the course of a single storm. Observations during these events raise the question of how storm-related changes affect the future vulnerability of a coast.

  3. Differences in impacts of Hurricane Sandy on freshwater swamps on the Delmarva Peninsula, Mid−Atlantic Coast, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane wind and surge may have different influences on the subsequent composition of forests. During Hurricane Sandy, while damaging winds were highest near landfall in New Jersey, inundation occurred along the entire eastern seaboard from Georgia to Maine. In this study, a comparison of damage from salinity intrusion vs. wind/surge was recorded in swamps of the Delmarva Peninsula along the Pocomoke (MD) and Nanticoke (DE) Rivers, south of the most intense wind damage. Hickory Point Cypress Swamp (Hickory) was closest to the Chesapeake Bay and may have been subjected to a salinity surge as evidenced by elevated salinity levels at a gage upstream of this swamp (storm salinity = 13.1 ppt at Nassawango Creek, Snow Hill, Maryland). After Hurricane Sandy, 8% of the standing trees died at Hickory including Acer rubrum, Amelanchier laevis, Ilex spp., and Taxodium distichum. In Plot 2 of Hickory, 25% of the standing trees were dead, and soil salinity levels were the highest recorded in the study. The most important variables related to structural tree damage were soil salinity and proximity to the Atlantic coast as based on Stepwise Regression and NMDS procedures. Wind damage was mostly restricted to broken branches although tipped−up trees were found at Hickory, Whiton and Porter (species: Liquidamabar styraciflua, Pinus taeda, Populus deltoides, Quercus pagoda and Ilex spp.). These trees fell mostly in an east or east−southeast direction (88o−107o) in keeping with the wind direction of Hurricane Sandy on the Delmarva Peninsula. Coastal restoration and management can be informed by the specific differences in hurricane damage to vegetation by salt versus wind.

  4. Study of strong interaction between atmosphere and solid Earth by using hurricane data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanimoto, Toshiro

    2016-04-01

    The original energy of seismic noise is in the atmosphere although the most well-known seismic noise (microseism) gets excited through the ocean, i.e. the atmosphere (winds) excites ocean waves that in turn generate seismic noise in the solid earth. The oceans work as an intermediary in this case. But there is some seismic noise that is directly caused by the atmosphere-solid earth interactions. An extreme example for such a direct interaction can be found in the case of hurricanes (tropical cyclones) when they landfall and move on land. If we had such data, we could study the process of atmosphere-solid earth interactions directly. The Earthscope TA (Transportable Array) provided a few examples of such landfallen hurricanes which moved through the TA that had both seismometers and barometers. This data set allows us to study how ground motions changed as surface pressure (i.e., the source strength) varied over time. Because effects of surface pressure show up at short distances more clearly, we first examine the correlation between pressure and ground motion for the same stations. Plots of vertical ground velocity PSD (Power Spectral Density) vs. surface pressure PSD show that there are no significant ground motions unless pressure PSD becomes larger than 10 (Pa^2/s). Above this threshold, ground motion increases as P**1.69 (P is pressure and 1.69 is close to 5/3). Horizontal ground motions are larger than vertical ground motions (in seismic data), approximately by a factor of 10-30. But we note that the variations of horizontal motions with pressure show a linear relationship. Considering the instrumental design of TA stations, this is more likely due to the tilt of the whole recording system as (lateral) strong winds apply horizontal force on it. This linear trend exists for the whole range of the observed pressure PSD data, extending to small pressure values. We interpret that tilt signals overwhelmed other seismic signals in horizontal seismograms for

  5. Probabilistic prediction of barrier-island response to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.

    2012-01-01

    Prediction of barrier-island response to hurricane attack is important for assessing the vulnerability of communities, infrastructure, habitat, and recreational assets to the impacts of storm surge, waves, and erosion. We have demonstrated that a conceptual model intended to make qualitative predictions of the type of beach response to storms (e.g., beach erosion, dune erosion, dune overwash, inundation) can be reformulated in a Bayesian network to make quantitative predictions of the morphologic response. In an application of this approach at Santa Rosa Island, FL, predicted dune-crest elevation changes in response to Hurricane Ivan explained about 20% to 30% of the observed variance. An extended Bayesian network based on the original conceptual model, which included dune elevations, storm surge, and swash, but with the addition of beach and dune widths as input variables, showed improved skill compared to the original model, explaining 70% of dune elevation change variance and about 60% of dune and shoreline position change variance. This probabilistic approach accurately represented prediction uncertainty (measured with the log likelihood ratio), and it outperformed the baseline prediction (i.e., the prior distribution based on the observations). Finally, sensitivity studies demonstrated that degrading the resolution of the Bayesian network or removing data from the calibration process reduced the skill of the predictions by 30% to 40%. The reduction in skill did not change conclusions regarding the relative importance of the input variables, and the extended model's skill always outperformed the original model.

  6. Hurricane wrack generates landscape-level heterogeneity in coastal pine savanna

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Wrack (vegetation debris) deposited by storm surges of major hurricanes along the northern Gulf of Mexico produces depressant eff ects that vary from partial to...

  7. Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Kiju; Shavitt, Sharon; Viswanathan, Madhu; Hilbe, Joseph M

    2014-06-17

    Do people judge hurricane risks in the context of gender-based expectations? We use more than six decades of death rates from US hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes. Laboratory experiments indicate that this is because hurricane names lead to gender-based expectations about severity and this, in turn, guides respondents' preparedness to take protective action. This finding indicates an unfortunate and unintended consequence of the gendered naming of hurricanes, with important implications for policymakers, media practitioners, and the general public concerning hurricane communication and preparedness.

  8. Evaluation of NYC's Coastal Vulnerability and Potential Adaptation Strategies in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, S. M.; Foti, R.; Montalto, F. A.

    2015-12-01

    New York City's coastlines are a mosaic of remnant natural habitat, man-made wetlands, manicured parkland, public beaches, housing, and industrial centers, all of which are extremely vulnerable to flooding, storm surge, and damaging wave action. Risks are projected to increase overtime as sea levels rise, population grows, and the frequency and severity of extreme events increases. In order to protect its citizens and infrastructure, New York City is planning to invest 20 billion into a coastal protection plan, including 200 million towards wetlands creation and restoration. Focusing on the role of wetlands and parkland in reducing damages during Hurricane Sandy, our study seeks to identify the primary causes of coastal vulnerability and to provide guidelines for the design of coastal protection measures. Our findings show that most of the small, fragmented NYC's wetlands did not provide significant protection from the violence of the hurricane. Large stretches of wetlands and parkland, on the other hand, were found to exacerbate storm surge along the coast, but did reduce surge penetration further inland. Much of the protection provided by wetlands and coastal green sites was in the form of cost avoidance. Wetlands existed in the most heavily hit areas and so averted damages that would have occurred if those areas had been developed. Our results suggest that, when positioned in the highest risk areas, coastal green infrastructure such as wetlands and parklands can reduce coastal flood risks associated with extreme events like Hurricane Sandy. Policy would ideally prioritize conservation, restoration, and enhancement of large contiguous areas of wetlands in the lowest elevation areas of the city. Where low-lying coastal development cannot be relocated, the risk of damage from storm surges is best reduced by elevating critical infrastructure.

  9. Development and Evaluation of Storm Surge Ensemble Forecasting for the Philippines Using JMA Storm Surge Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapidez, J. P. B.; Tablazon, J. P.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.; Suarez, J. K. B.; Santiago, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    The Philippines is one of the countries most vulnerable to storm surge. It is located in the North-western Pacific basin which is the most active basin in the planet. An average of 20 tropical cyclones enters the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) every year. The archipelagic nature of the country with regions having gently sloping coasts and shallow bays also contribute to the formation of extreme surges. Last November 2013, storm surge brought by super typhoon Haiyan severely damaged several coastal regions in the Visayan Islands. Haiyan left more than 6 300 casualties and damages amounting to more than $ 2 billion. Extreme storm surge events such as this highlight the need to establish a storm surge early warning system for the country. This study explores the development and evaluation of storm surge ensemble forecasting for the Philippines using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) storm surge model. 36-hour, 24-hour, and 12-hour tropical cyclone forecasts are used to generate an ensemble storm surge forecast to give the most probable storm surge height at a specific point brought by an incoming tropical cyclone. The result of the storm surge forecast is compared to tide gauge record to evaluate the accuracy. The total time of computation and dissemination of forecast result is also examined to assess the feasibility of using the JMA storm surge model for operational purposes.

  10. Cancellation of scheduled procedures as a mechanism to generate hospital bed surge capacity-a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soremekun, Olan A; Zane, Richard D; Walls, Andrew; Allen, Matthew B; Seefeld, Kimberly J; Pallin, Daniel J

    2011-06-01

    The ability to generate hospital beds in response to a mass-casualty incident is an essential component of public health preparedness. Although many acute care hospitals' emergency response plans include some provision for delaying or cancelling elective procedures in the event of an inpatient surge, no standardized method for implementing and quantifying the impact of this strategy exists in the literature. The aim of this study was to develop a methodology to prospectively emergency plan for implementing a strategy of delaying procedures and quantifying the potential impact of this strategy on creating hospital bed capacity. This is a pilot study. A categorization methodology was devised and applied retrospectively to all scheduled procedures during four one-week periods chosen by convenience. The categorization scheme grouped procedures into four categories: (A) procedures with no impact on inpatient capacity; (B) procedures that could be delayed indefinitely; (C) procedures that could be delayed by one week; and (D) procedures that could not be delayed. The categorization scheme was applied by two research assistants and an emergency medicine resident. All three raters categorized the first 100 cases to allow for calculation of inter-rater reliability. Maximal hospital bed capacity was defined as the 95th percentile weekday occupancy, as this is more representative of functional bed capacity than is the number of licensed beds. The main outcome was the number of hospital beds that could be created by postponing procedures in categories B and C. Maximal hospital bed capacity was 816 beds. Mean occupancy during weekdays was 759 versus 694 on weekends. By postponing Group B and C procedures, a mean of 60 beds (51 general medical/surgical and nine intensive care unit (ICU)) could be created on weekdays, and four beds (three general medical/surgical and one ICU) on weekends. This represents 7.3% and 0.49% of maximal hospital bed capacity and ICU capacity

  11. 海浪和潮汐风暴潮耦合过程的数值研究%Numerical Study of Wave-Tide-Surge Coupling Processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尹宝树; 莎日娜; 杨德周; 程明华

    2006-01-01

    @@ Risk assessment of storm surge and wave hazards in the Huanghe Delta coastal area of the Bohai Sea requires accurate prediction of storm surge and wave hazards. So this study is aimed at establishing a coastal high-resolution (2' × 2') two-way coupled wave-tide-surge model, including three main physical mechanisms. The model was used for comparisons and analysis of simulated and measured wave heights and sea level in two moderate storm cases in the Huanghe Delta coastal area. We show that the effects of different physical mechanisms on wave heights are mainly determined by wave-current interaction by radiation stress in the wave energy equation. Wave-age dependent surface wind stress and radiation stress mechanisms in the coupling wave-tide-surge interaction have positive impact on sea level, and wave-current interaction bottom stress mechanism show negative impact on sea level. The comprehensive effects of three main physical mechanisms show positive net impact on seal level and increase it by as much as 25 cm. We show that the wave heights and sea levels simulated by the coupled wave-tide-surge model agree better with the measured values compared to uncoupled model results, particularly for peak storm conditions.

  12. An Examination of Hurricane Emergency Preparedness Planning at Institutions of Higher Learning of the Gulf South Region Post Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura, Caterina Gulli

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine hurricane emergency preparedness planning at institutions of higher learning of the Gulf South region following Hurricane Katrina. The problem addressed the impact of Hurricane Katrina on decision-making and policy planning processes. The focus was on individuals that administer the hurricane emergency…

  13. An Examination of Hurricane Emergency Preparedness Planning at Institutions of Higher Learning of the Gulf South Region Post Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura, Caterina Gulli

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine hurricane emergency preparedness planning at institutions of higher learning of the Gulf South region following Hurricane Katrina. The problem addressed the impact of Hurricane Katrina on decision-making and policy planning processes. The focus was on individuals that administer the hurricane emergency…

  14. A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad

    2014-08-01

    This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

  15. Hurricane Katrina: Impact on Cardiac Surgery Case Volume and Outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Bakaeen, Faisal G.; Huh, Joseph; Chu, Danny; Coselli, Joseph S.; LeMaire, Scott A.; Mattox, Kenneth L.; Wall, Matthew J.; Wang, Xing Li; Shenaq, Salwa A.; Atluri, Prasad V.; Awad, Samir S.; Berger, David H.

    2008-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina produced a surge of patient referrals to our facility for cardiac surgery. We sought to determine the impact of this abrupt volume change on operative outcomes. Using our cardiac surgery database, which is part of the Department of Veterans Affairs' Continuous Improvement in Cardiac Surgery Program, we compared procedural outcomes for all cardiac operations that were performed in the year before the hurricane (Year A, 29 August 2004–28 August 2005) and the year after (Year B...

  16. A Study on EMTP-Analysis Model for Switch-Board SPD with Gap and Propagation Characteristics of Lightning Surge on Simple Indoor Distribution Line

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakamoto, Yoshiki; Miyazaki, Teru; Okabe, Shigemitsu

    The numbers of damages of home electric appliances due to lightning surges have recently increased. Installing Surge Protective Devices (SPDs) for indoor distribution line is one of countermeasures against the damages, and is also spreading after an amendment of the regulation on indoor wires in 2005. Past studies have showed that the SPDs installed on the switchboard are effective for protecting all the equipment supplied by indoor distribution lines against lightning strokes. However, it is difficult to evaluate the protective effects of the SPDs against lightning strikes when considering complex indoor wires in houses. Thus, a high-precision analysis method is required to clarify the lightning performance of the SPDs for interior wiring. In this research, experiments were conducted to grasp the protective effects of the SPDs installed on a switchboard against lightning surges invading into a house, and an analysis model by the EMTP was proposed. The calculated results relatively agreed with the experimental results.

  17. EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IVAN ON WATER QUALITY IN PENSACOLA BAY, FL USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pensacola Bay was in the strong NE quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004 as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, ...

  18. EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IVAN ON WATER QUALITY IN PENSACOLA BAY, FL USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pensacola Bay was in the strong NE quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004 as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, ...

  19. Hurricane Resource Reel

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This Reel Includes the Following Sections TRT 50:10 Hurricane Overviews 1:02; Hurricane Arthur 15:07; Cyclone Pam 19:48; Typhoon Hagupit 21:27; Hurricane Bertha...

  20. Hurricane Evacuation Routes

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Hurricane Evacuation Routes in the United States A hurricane evacuation route is a designated route used to direct traffic inland in case of a hurricane threat. This...

  1. Hurricane Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanuel, Kerry

    2012-10-01

    Hurricanes provide beautiful examples of many of the key physical processes important in geophysical systems. They are rare natural examples of nearly perfect Carnot heat engines with an interesting wrinkle: They recycle much of their waste heat into the front end of the engine, thereby achieving greater wind speeds than would otherwise be possible. They are driven by surface enthalpy fluxes made possible by the thermodynamic disequilibrium between the earth's surface and atmosphere, a characteristic of radiative equilibrium in the presence of greenhouse gases. Their evolution, structure, and intensity all depend on turbulence near the ocean surface and in the outflow layer of the storm, high up in the atmosphere. In the course of this banquet, I will briefly describe these and other interesting aspects of hurricane physics, and also describe the role these storms have played in human history.

  2. Influence of Surge on Extreme Roll Amplitudes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidic-Perunovic, Jelena; Rognebakke, Olav; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    2008-01-01

    Interference of the wave-induced ship surge motion with roll dynamics has been studied. The surge motion has been included in a previously derived hydrodynamic roll prediction model in order to account for the ship speed variation due to the longitudinal incident wave pressure force. Depending on...

  3. Probabilistic Storm Surge Hazard Assessment in the French West Indies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.; Arnaud, G.

    2016-12-01

    The French West Indies are prone to hurricanes formed over the warm tropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. These events can have great consequences in terms of human, property, and economic losses. Storm surge hazard assessment is therefore required to provide guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers. By combining statistical-deterministic approaches and wave-current coupled models, we assessed storm surge hazard in Guadeloupe and Martinique islands. We present here the methodology, the results, as well as the on-going work on the impact of climate change in the framework of the FEDER-funded project C3AF.

  4. NUMERICAL STUDY OF WATER LEVEL FLUCTUATION IN BULL-HORN SURGE CHAMBER IN PIPE SYSTEM DURING WATERHAMMER

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The method of characteristics was adopted to analyze water level fluctuation existing in Bull-Horn surge chamber in reservoir-valve pipe system during waterhammer caused by valve closure operation. The Finite Difference Method (FDM) based on the method of characteristics was used to solve numerically the nonlinear two-parameter characteristic equations governing waterhammer. The finite fixed mesh was applied to obtaining the discrete form of the governing equations and discrete flow-field. The temporal trends of the y-directional flow, water level, velocity of water level and head difference for different heights of water in surge chamber, diameters of cylinder, cutting angles of surge chamber, lengths of horizontal cylinder and lengths of inclined cylinder were obtained under the condition that the air in surge chamber is compressible. The conclusions on water level fluctuation in Bull-Horn surge chamber were given based on the analyses of the obtained transient numerical results. These conclusions can play a guiding role in designing pipe system and executing surge suppression.

  5. What Can Multiwave Studies Teach Us About Disaster Research: An Analysis of Low-Income Hurricane Katrina Survivors

    OpenAIRE

    Green, Gillian; Lowe, Sarah R.; Rhodes, Jean E.

    2012-01-01

    Previous research on natural disasters has been limited by a lack of predisaster data and statistical analyses that do not adequately predict change in psychological symptoms. In the current study, we addressed these limitations through analysis of 3 waves of data from a longitudinal investigation of 313 low-income, African American mothers who were exposed to Hurricane Katrina. Although postdisaster cross-sectional estimates of the impact of traumatic stress exposure and postdisaster social ...

  6. Utilizing Land:Water Isopleths for Storm Surge Model Development in Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siverd, C. G.; Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Braud, D.; Peele, H.; Twilley, R.

    2016-12-01

    In the Mississippi River Delta (MRD) Land:Water (L:W) isopleths (Gagliano et al., 1970, 1971) can be used to better understand coastal flood risk from hurricanes than simple estimates of land loss (Twilley et al., 2016). The major goal of this study is to develop a methodology that utilizes L:W isopleths to simplify a detailed present day storm surge model of coastal Louisiana. A secondary goal is to represent marsh fragmentation via L:W isopleths for modeling (for example) storm surge. Isopleths of L:W were derived for the year 2010 and include 1%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 99% (1% being mostly water and 99% being mostly land). Thirty-six models were developed via permutations of two isopleths selected with no repetition between 1% and 99%. The selected two isopleths result in three polygons which represent "open water/transition", "marsh", and "land". The ADvaced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) code (Luettich and Westerink, 2006) was used to perform storm surge simulations. Hydrologic basins, specifically Hydrologic Unit Code 12 (HUC12s), were used to quantify the water surface elevation, depth, volume, area and retention time across south Louisiana for each storm simulation and to provide a basin by basin comparison for the detailed model vs. simplified model results. This methodology aids in identifying the simplified model that most closely resembles the detailed model. It can also be used to develop comparable storm surge models for historical eras prior to the advent of modern remote sensing technology for the purpose of storm surge analysis throughout time.

  7. Trace element concentrations in surface estuarine and marine sediments along the Mississippi Gulf Coast following Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Crystal; Duzgoren-Aydin, Nurdan S; Weston, James; Willett, Kristine L

    2012-01-01

    Hurricanes are relatively frequent ecological disturbances that may cause potentially long-term impacts to the coastal environment. Hurricane Katrina hit the Mississippi Gulf Coast in August 2005, and caused a storm surge with the potential to change the trace element content of coastal surface sediments. In this study, surface estuarine and marine sediments were collected monthly following the storm from ten sites along the Mississippi Gulf Coast (Mobile Bay, Grand Bay Bayous Heron and Cumbest, Pascagoula, Ocean Springs, Biloxi Gulf, Back Biloxi Bay, Gulfport Gulf, Gulfport Courthouse Rd, and Gulfport Marina). Concentrations of V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Zn, As, Cd, and Pb were measured by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry to evaluate their temporal and spatial variations in the year following Hurricane Katrina. Sediments were characterized by pH, particle size distribution and total carbon and nitrogen content. Trace element contents of the sediments were determined in both Hurricane Katrina would not cause an adverse impact on resident organisms. Instead, the concentrations of trace elements were site-dependent, with specific contaminants relating to the use of the area prior to Hurricane Katrina.

  8. African Dust Influence on Atlantic Hurricane Activity and the Peculiar Behaviour of Category 5 Hurricanes

    CERN Document Server

    Herrera, Victor M Velasco; H., Graciela Velasco; Gonzalez, Laura Luna

    2010-01-01

    We study the specific influence of African dust on each one of the categories of Atlantic hurricanes. By applying wavelet analysis, we find a strong decadal modulation of African dust on Category 5 hurricanes and an annual modulation on all other categories of hurricanes. We identify the formation of Category 5 hurricanes occurring mainly around the decadal minimum variation of African dust and in deep water areas of the Atlantic Ocean, where hurricane eyes have the lowest pressure. According to our results, future tropical cyclones will not evolve to Category 5 until the next decadal minimum that is, by the year 2015 +/- 2.

  9. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a storm surge and wave model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastidas, Luis A.; Knighton, James; Kline, Shaun W.

    2016-09-01

    Development and simulation of synthetic hurricane tracks is a common methodology used to estimate hurricane hazards in the absence of empirical coastal surge and wave observations. Such methods typically rely on numerical models to translate stochastically generated hurricane wind and pressure forcing into coastal surge and wave estimates. The model output uncertainty associated with selection of appropriate model parameters must therefore be addressed. The computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates is exacerbated by the high dimensionality of numerical surge and wave models. We present a model parameter sensitivity analysis of the Delft3D model for the simulation of hazards posed by Hurricane Bob (1991) utilizing three theoretical wind distributions (NWS23, modified Rankine, and Holland). The sensitive model parameters (of 11 total considered) include wind drag, the depth-induced breaking γB, and the bottom roughness. Several parameters show no sensitivity (threshold depth, eddy viscosity, wave triad parameters, and depth-induced breaking αB) and can therefore be excluded to reduce the computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates. The sensitive model parameters also demonstrate a large number of interactions between parameters and a nonlinear model response. While model outputs showed sensitivity to several parameters, the ability of these parameters to act as tuning parameters for calibration is somewhat limited as proper model calibration is strongly reliant on accurate wind and pressure forcing data. A comparison of the model performance with forcings from the different wind models is also presented.

  10. Archiving Disaster: A Comparative Study of September 11, 2001 and Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivard, Courtney J.

    2012-01-01

    The first decade of the 21st Century in the United States witnessed two major events that have come to be understood as national disasters: September 11, 2001 and Hurricane Katrina. Numerous historical institutions quickly mobilized to collect material relating to the two events, prompting the creation of what is now referred to as "disaster…

  11. Analytical study on water hammer pressure in pressurized conduits with a throttled surge chamber for slow closure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong-liang ZHANG; Ming-fei MIAO; Ji-ming MA

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an analytical investigation of water hammer in a hydraulic pressurized pipe system with a throttled surge chamber located at the junction between a tunnel and a penstock,and a valve positioned at the downstream end of the penstock.Analytical formulas of maximum water hammer pressures at the downstream end of the tunnel and the valve were derived for a system subjected to linear and slow valve closure.The analytical results were then compared with numerical ones obtained using the method of characteristics.There is agreement between them.The formulas can be applied to estimating water hammer pressure at the valve and transmission of water hammer pressure through the surge chamber at the junction for a hydraulic pipe system with a surge chamber.

  12. Analytical study on water hammer pressure in pressurized conduits with a throttled surge chamber for slow closure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-liang ZHANG

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analytical investigation of water hammer in a hydraulic pressurized pipe system with a throttled surge chamber located at the junction between a tunnel and a penstock, and a valve positioned at the downstream end of the penstock. Analytical formulas of maximum water hammer pressures at the downstream end of the tunnel and the valve were derived for a system subjected to linear and slow valve closure. The analytical results were then compared with numerical ones obtained using the method of characteristics. There is agreement between them. The formulas can be applied to estimating water hammer pressure at the valve and transmission of water hammer pressure through the surge chamber at the junction for a hydraulic pipe system with a surge chamber.

  13. Large-scale Vertical Motions, Intensity Change and Precipitation Associated with Land falling Hurricane Katrina over the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, S. R.; Kwembe, T.; Zhang, Z.

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the possible relationship between the large- scale heat fluxes and intensity change associated with the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. After reaching the category 5 intensity on August 28th , 2005 over the central Gulf of Mexico, Katrina weekend to category 3 before making landfall (August 29th , 2005) on the Louisiana coast with the maximum sustained winds of over 110 knots. We also examined the vertical motions associated with the intensity change of the hurricane. The data for Convective Available Potential Energy for water vapor (CAPE), sea level pressure and wind speed were obtained from the Atmospheric Soundings, and NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC), respectively for the period August 24 to September 3, 2005. We also computed vertical motions using CAPE values. The study showed that the large-scale heat fluxes reached maximum (7960W/m2) with the central pressure 905mb. The Convective Available Potential Energy and the vertical motions peaked 3-5 days before landfall. The large atmospheric vertical motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorm, tornadoes, storm surge and floods Numerical model (WRF/ARW) with data assimilations have been used for this research to investigate the model's performances on hurricane tracks and intensities associated with the hurricane Katrina, which began to strengthen until reaching Category 5 on 28 August 2005. The model was run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 hr periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model output was compared with the observations and is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track associated with hurricane Katrina.

  14. Using Enabling Technologies to Facilitate the Comparison of Satellite Observations with the Model Forecasts for Hurricane Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, P.; Knosp, B.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Niamsuwan, N.; Johnson, M. P.; Shen, T. P. J.; Tanelli, S.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q. A.

    2014-12-01

    Due to their complexity and volume, the satellite data are underutilized in today's hurricane research and operations. To better utilize these data, we developed the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) - an Interactive Data Portal providing fusion between Near-Real-Time satellite observations and model forecasts to facilitate model evaluation and improvement. We have collected satellite observations and model forecasts in the Atlantic Basin and the East Pacific for the hurricane seasons since 2010 and supported the NASA Airborne Campaigns for Hurricane Study such as the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) in 2010 and the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) from 2012 to 2014. To enable the direct inter-comparisons of the satellite observations and the model forecasts, the TCIS was integrated with the NASA Earth Observing System Simulator Suite (NEOS3) to produce synthetic observations (e.g. simulated passive microwave brightness temperatures) from a number of operational hurricane forecast models (HWRF and GFS). An automated process was developed to trigger NEOS3 simulations via web services given the location and time of satellite observations, monitor the progress of the NEOS3 simulations, display the synthetic observation and ingest them into the TCIS database when they are done. In addition, three analysis tools, the joint PDF analysis of the brightness temperatures, ARCHER for finding the storm-center and the storm organization and the Wave Number Analysis tool for storm asymmetry and morphology analysis were integrated into TCIS to provide statistical and structural analysis on both observed and synthetic data. Interactive tools were built in the TCIS visualization system to allow the spatial and temporal selections of the datasets, the invocation of the tools with user specified parameters, and the display and the delivery of the results. In this presentation, we will describe the key enabling technologies behind the design of

  15. Challenges of nurses' deployment to other New York City hospitals in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanDevanter, Nancy; Kovner, Christine T; Raveis, Victoria H; McCollum, Meriel; Keller, Ronald

    2014-08-01

    On October 29, 2012, a 12-ft storm surge generated by Hurricane Sandy necessitated evacuation and temporary closure of three New York City hospitals including NYU Langone Medical Center (NYULMC). NYULMC nurses participated in the evacuation, and 71 % were subsequently deployed to area hospitals to address patient surge for periods from a few days up to 2 months when NYULMC reopened. This mixed methods study explored nurses' experience in the immediate disaster and the subsequent deployment. More than 50 % of deployed nurse participants reported the experience to be extremely or very stressful. Deployed nurses encountered practice challenges related to working in an unfamiliar environment, limited orientation, legal concerns about clinical assignments. They experienced psychosocial challenges associated with the intense experience of the evacuation, uncertainty about future employment, and the increased demands of managing the deployment. Findings provide data to inform national and regional policies to support nurses in future deployments.

  16. Geomorphic and ecological effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on coastal Louisiana marsh communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piazza, Sarai C.; Steyer, Gregory D.; Cretini, Kari F.; Sasser, Charles E.; Visser, Jenneke M.; Holm, Guerry O.; Sharp, Leigh A.; Evers, D. Elaine; Meriwether, John R.

    2011-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita made landfall in 2005, subjecting the coastal marsh communities of Louisiana to various degrees of exposure. We collected data after the storms at 30 sites within fresh (12), brackish/intermediate (12), and saline (6) marshes to document the effects of saltwater storm surge and sedimentation on marsh community dynamics. The 30 sites were comprised of 15 pairs. Most pairs contained one site where data collection occurred historically (that is, prestorms) and one Coastwide Reference Monitoring System site. Data were collected from spring 2006 to fall 2007 on vegetative species composition, percentage of vegetation cover, aboveground and belowground biomass, and canopy reflectance, along with discrete porewater salinity, hourly surface-water salinity, and water level. Where available, historical data acquired before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were used to compare conditions and changes in ecological trajectories before and after the hurricanes. Sites experiencing direct and indirect hurricane influences (referred to in this report as levels of influence) were also identified, and the effects of hurricane influence were tested on vegetation and porewater data. Within fresh marshes, porewater salinity was greater in directly impacted areas, and this heightened salinity was reflected in decreased aboveground and belowground biomass and increased cover of disturbance species in the directly impacted sites. At the brackish/intermediate marsh sites, vegetation variables and porewater salinity were similar in directly and indirectly impacted areas, but porewater salinity was higher than expected throughout the study. Interestingly, directly impacted saline marsh sites had lower porewater salinity than indirectly impacted sites, but aboveground biomass was greater at the directly impacted sites. Because of the variable and site-specific nature of hurricane influences, we present case studies to help define postdisturbance baseline conditions in

  17. Comparing and Contrasting the Benefits of Land Mass vs. Land Cover on Storm Surge Attenuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siverd, C. G.; Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Twilley, R.; Braud, D.; Peele, H.

    2015-12-01

    From 1930 through 2012 Louisiana lost approximately 1,880 sq mi (4,870 sq km) of coastal wetlands due to land subsidence, erosion, and sea level rise among other factors. Louisiana could potentially lose an additional 1,750 sq mi (4,530 sq km) of coastal wetlands by 2062 if no action is taken to prevent this land loss (CPRA, 2012). If risk is defined as probability multiplied by consequence (Vrijling, 2006), such land loss will significantly increase the risk of flooding in coastal communities and communities located farther inland. Vital coastal infrastructure will also be at a heightened risk of flood damage. This will be attributable to the increase in frequency of hurricane storm surge events featuring greater depths and farther inland extent. This risk can be described by contrasting the surface area of land and water along the Louisiana coast. Using aerial or satellite imagery, isopleths can be plotted along the coast that describe the land to water (L:W) ratio over time (e.g., Gagliano et al., 1970, 1971 plotted the calculated 50% L:W ratio isopleths for the years 1930, and 1970, with an estimated 2000 isopleth). Risk to coastal infrastructure and coastal communities increases as the L:W ratio is reduced. One possible way to reduce the depth and extent of storm surge is to increase the land area along the coast. A second way is to modify the land cover (i.e. vary the type and density of vegetation). The L:W ratio can be used to quantify storm surge attenuation and assess such contributing factors. For this study, storm surge is simulated along coastal Louisiana for various instances - with increased land area and separately with different land cover types and densities - to determine which of these factors most effectively reduce the depth and extent of storm surge. New metrics involving hydrologic basins for evaluating storm surge attenuation are also described. The results of this study should inform policy makers which factors contribute the most to storm

  18. The dynamics of surge in compression systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A N Vishwanatha Rao; O N Ramesh

    2007-02-01

    In air-compression systems, instabilities occur during operation close to their peak pressure-rise capability. However, the peak efficiency of a compression system lies close to this region of instability. A surge is a violent mode of instability where there is total breakdown of flow in the system and pressure-rise capability is lost drastically. Generally, all compression systems operate with a margin defined as the ‘surge margin’, and, consequently, system operational efficiency is lower. It is of interest to study compression-system surge to understand its dynamics in order to operate compression systems close to the instability for achieving high efficiency safely without encountering surge. Unsteady pressure data from a compression system, captured during surge oscillations, reveal many aspects of flow physics and are analysed to understand the surge dynamics of the system. A set of controlled experiments was conducted with a simple desktop experimental test set-up and essential aspects of surge dynamics have been characterised.

  19. Coastal flooding: impact of waves on storm surge during extremes - a case study for the German Bight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staneva, Joanna; Wahle, Kathrin; Koch, Wolfgang; Behrens, Arno; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Stanev, Emil V.

    2016-11-01

    This study addresses the impact of wind, waves, tidal forcing and baroclinicity on the sea level of the German Bight during extreme storm events. The role of wave-induced processes, tides and baroclinicity is quantified, and the results are compared with in situ measurements and satellite data. A coupled high-resolution modelling system is used to simulate wind waves, the water level and the three-dimensional hydrodynamics. The models used are the wave model WAM and the circulation model GETM. The two-way coupling is performed via the OASIS3-MCT coupler. The effects of wind waves on sea level variability are studied, accounting for wave-dependent stress, wave-breaking parameterization and wave-induced effects on vertical mixing. The analyses of the coupled model results reveal a closer match with observations than for the stand-alone circulation model, especially during the extreme storm Xaver in December 2013. The predicted surge of the coupled model is significantly enhanced during extreme storm events when considering wave-current interaction processes. This wave-dependent approach yields a contribution of more than 30 % in some coastal areas during extreme storm events. The contribution of a fully three-dimensional model compared with a two-dimensional barotropic model showed up to 20 % differences in the water level of the coastal areas of the German Bight during Xaver. The improved skill resulting from the new developments justifies further use of the coupled-wave and three-dimensional circulation models in coastal flooding predictions.

  20. Hurricane related flooding monitoring: a method to delineate potentially affected areas by using a GIS model in the Caribbean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melelli, L.; Taramelli, A.; Sorichetta, A.; Pasqui, M.

    2007-12-01

    This research integrates the concept that the subject of natural hazards and the use of existing remote sensing systems in the different phases of a disaster management for a specific hurricane hazard, is based on the applicability of GIS model for increasing preparedness and providing early warning. The modelling of an hurricane event in potentially affected areas by GIS has recently become a major topic of research. In this context the disastrous effects of hurricanes on coastal communities and surroundings areas are well known, but there is a need to better understand the causes and the hazards contributions of the different events related to an hurricane, like storm surge, flooding and high winds. This blend formed the basis of a semi- quantitative and promising approach in order to model the spatial distribution of the final hazard along the affected areas. The applied model determines a sudden onset zoning from a set of available parameters starting from topography based on Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data. From the Digital Elevation Model as a first step the river network is derived and then classified based on the Strahler order account as proportional to flooding area. Then we use a hydrologic model that uses the wetness index (a parameter of specific catchment area defined as upslope area per unit contour length) to better quantify the drainage area that contributes to the flooded events. Complementary data for the final model includes remote sensed density rain dataset for the hurricane events taking into account and existing hurricane tracks inventories together with hurricane structure model (different buffers related to wind speed hurricane parameters in a GIS environment). To assess the overall susceptibility, the hazard results were overlaid with population dataset and landcover. The approach, which made use of a number of available global data sets, was then validated on a regional basis using past experience on hurricane frequency

  1. Study of three-phase fluid dynamics in a surging production system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Rodolfo; Assuncao, Pablo Morelato; Ressel, Fabio de Assis [Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo, Sao Mateus, ES (Brazil)

    2010-07-01

    Among others factors, petroleum extraction is subordinate to the reservoir pressure and the required pressure to rise it to the surface production facilities. Reservoir deliverability equations tied production rate with reservoir driving force (Economides, 1994). The Inflow Performance Relationship (IPR) is obtained by measuring the production rates under various drawdown pressures, and is used to assess well performance by plotting the well production rate against the flowing bottonhole pressure. Others limiting rate of production factors are imposed by wellhead required pressure and the production tubing performance. The tubing performance is sensitive to several parameters among which we can highlight the production tubing geometry and the properties of the produced fluids (Guo, 2007). Therewith we can define the Tubing Performance Relationship (TPR) similarly to the IPR. Thus the present work aims the hydraulic performance analysis of a production system with a flowing well without artificial elevation methods. Furthermore the triphasic (water-oil-gas) flow studies, both in the production string and the production line, allowed the inspection of the main variables of the system, fluid properties, operation conditions and geometric parameters, on the head loss. In order obtain all these, several methods were developed, each one with specifics limitations to include all flow patterns. The most common biphasic horizontal flow patterns according to Brill and Beggs (1975) are: mist flow, bubble flow, plug flow, slug flow, stratified flow, wavy flow and annular flow. Yet according to Brill and Beggs (1975) the most common biphasic vertical flow patterns are: bubbly flow, slug flow, churn flow, and annular flow. Accordingly to these, another outbreak discussed is the pattern flow sensibility on the head loss. The methodology used in the present work is based on the discretization of the system in several discrete counterparts cells, in which was where it was applied

  2. Design and Characterization of a Centrifugal Compressor Surge Test Rig

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kin Tien Lim

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A detailed description of a new centrifugal compressor surge test rig is presented. The objective of the design and development of the rig is to study the surge phenomenon in centrifugal compression systems and to investigate a novel method of surge control by active magnetic bearing servo actuation of the impeller axial tip clearance. In this paper, we focus on the design, initial setup, and testing of the rig. The latter two include the commissioning of the rig and the experimental characterization of the compressor performance. The behavior of the compressor during surge is analyzed by driving the experimental setup into surge. Two fundamental frequencies, 21 Hz and 7 Hz, connected to the surge oscillation in the test rig are identified, and the observed instability is categorized according to the intensity of pressure fluctuations. Based on the test results, the excited pressure waves are clearly the result of surge and not stall. Also, they exhibit the characteristics of mild and classic surge instead of deep surge. Finally, the change in the compressor performance due to variation in the impeller tip clearance is experimentally examined, and the results support the potential of the tip clearance modulation for the control of compressor surge. This is the first such demonstration of the feasibility of surge control of a compressor using active magnetic bearings.

  3. Deep FIFO Surge Buffer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temple, Gerald; Siegel, Marc; Amitai, Zwie

    1991-01-01

    First-in/first-out (FIFO) temporarily stores short surges of data generated by data-acquisition system at excessively high rate and releases data at lower rate suitable for processing by computer. Size and complexity reduced while capacity enhanced by use of newly developed, sophisticated integrated circuits and by "byte-folding" scheme doubling effective depth and data rate.

  4. Deep FIFO Surge Buffer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temple, Gerald; Siegel, Marc; Amitai, Zwie

    1991-01-01

    First-in/first-out (FIFO) temporarily stores short surges of data generated by data-acquisition system at excessively high rate and releases data at lower rate suitable for processing by computer. Size and complexity reduced while capacity enhanced by use of newly developed, sophisticated integrated circuits and by "byte-folding" scheme doubling effective depth and data rate.

  5. 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes poster features high quality satellite images of 15 hurricanes which formed in the Atlantic Basin (includes Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean...

  6. Hurricane Gustav Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Gustav poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Gustav having made landfall along the Louisiana coastline. Poster size is 36"x27"

  7. Hurricane Ike Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Ike poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-15 shows Hurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward Galveston Island, Texas. Poster size is 36"x27".

  8. 2004 Landfalling Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2004 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes poster is a special edition poster which contains two sets of images of Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, created...

  9. Hurricane Sandy and earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    MAVASHEV BORIS; MAVASHEV IGOR

    2013-01-01

    Submit for consideration the connection between formation of a hurricane Sandy and earthquakes. As a rule, weather anomalies precede and accompany earthquakes. The hurricane Sandy emerged 2 days prior to strong earthquakes that occurred in the area. And the trajectory of the hurricane Sandy matched the epicenter of the earthquakes. Possibility of early prediction of natural disasters will minimize the moral and material damage.

  10. Special needs hurricane shelters and the ageing population: development of a methodology and a case study application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horner, Mark W; Ozguven, Eren Erman; Marcelin, Jean Michael; Kocatepe, Ayberk

    2017-04-28

    Recent experience of hurricanes, particularly in the southeast United States, has heightened awareness of the multifaceted nature of and the challenges to effective disaster relief planning. One key element of this planning is providing adequate shelter at secure locations for people who evacuate. Some of these individuals will have 'special needs', yet there is little research on the relationship with shelter space. This study designed a geographic information systems-based network optimisation methodology for the siting of special needs hurricane relief shelters, with a focus on the transportation component. It sought to find new locations for shelters that maximise accessibility by vulnerable populations, given capacity constraints, concentrating on the ageing population. The framework was implemented in a medium-sized metropolitan statistical area in the state of Florida where data suggest a possible deficit in special needs shelter space. The study analysed options for increasing special needs shelter capacity, while considering potential uncertainties in transportation network availability. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  11. Variation in RGS2 is associated with suicidal ideation in an epidemiological study of adults exposed to the 2004 Florida hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstadter, Ananda B; Koenen, Karestan C; Ruggiero, Kenneth J; Acierno, Ron; Galea, Sandro; Kilpatrick, Dean G; Gelernter, Joel

    2009-01-01

    This study examined whether rs4606, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the translated region at the 3' end of RGS2, was related to suicidal ideation in an epidemiologic sample of adults living in areas affected by the 2004 Florida hurricanes. An epidemiologic sample of residents of Florida was recruited via random digit-dial procedures after the 2004 Florida hurricanes; participants were interviewed about suicidal ideation, hurricane exposure, and social support. Participants who returned buccal DNA samples via mail (n = 607) were included here. Rs4606 in RGS2 was associated with increased symptoms of current suicidal ideation (p < 0.01). Each "C" allele was associated with 5.59 times increased risk of having current ideation. No gene-by-environment interactions were found, perhaps due to low power. RGS2 rs4606 is related to risk of current suicidal ideation in stressor-exposed adults.

  12. Community College Re-Enrollment after Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Sarah R.; Rhodes, Jean E.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we explored predictors of community college re-enrollment after Hurricane Katrina among a sample of low-income women (N = 221). It was predicted that participants' pre-hurricane educational optimism would predict community college re-enrollment a year after the hurricane. The influence of various demographic and additional resources…

  13. Ocean-Wave Coupled Modeling in COAMPS-TC: A Study of Hurricane Ivan (2004)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-15

    Hurricane Ivan (2004) 0603207N 73-9270-01-5 Travis A. Smith, Sue Chen, Timothy Campbell, Paul Martin, W. Erick Rogers, Sasa Gabersek, David Wang, Suzanne...Timothy Campbell a, Paul Martin a, W. Erick Rogers a, Saša Gaberšek b, David Wang a, Suzanne Carroll c, Richard Allard a aNaval Research Laboratory...the shelf currents followed Ekman dynamics with overlapping surface and bottom layers during Ivan’s approach and transitioned to a dominant surface

  14. Surge-damping vacuum valve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bullock, Jack C.; Kelly, Benjamin E.

    1980-01-01

    A valve having a mechanism for damping out flow surges in a vacuum system which utilizes a slotted spring-loaded disk positioned adjacent the valve's vacuum port. Under flow surge conditions, the differential pressure forces the disk into sealing engagement with the vacuum port, thereby restricting the flow path to the slots in the disk damping out the flow surge.

  15. Svalbard surging glacier landsystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovell, Harold; Benn, Douglas; Lukas, Sven; Flink, Anne

    2014-05-01

    The percentage of Svalbard glaciers thought to be of surge-type is somewhere between 13-90% according to different sources variously based on statistical analysis and observations of diagnostic glaciological and geomorphological features, e.g. looped moraines. Developing a better understanding of which of these figures, if either, is most realistic is important in the context of glacier dynamics and related contributions of small glaciers and ice caps to sea level change in the immediate future. We present detailed geomorphological assessments of the margins of several known surge-type glaciers in Svalbard in order to update and improve the existing framework by which they are identified, and to provide a foundation for future reassessments of the surge-type glacier population based on distinct landform-sediment assemblages. Three landsystems are proposed: (1) Surges of small valley glaciers produce a prominent ice-cored latero-frontal moraine at their surge maximum and are characterised by an inner zone of ice stagnation terrain (hummocky topography, kettle lakes, debris flows) with no or only very few poorly-defined bedforms (crevasse squeeze ridges, eskers and flutes) and no recessional moraines. Many of these glaciers may have surged in the past but show no signs that they have the capability to do so again in the future. (2) Larger land-terminating glaciers, often with several tributaries, typically produce a push moraine complex which contains evidence for multiple advances, as identified from ridge-meltwater channel relationships. The inner zone often contains a large lagoon, partly dammed by the push moraine complex, and widespread ice stagnation terrain. Crevasse squeeze ridges, eskers and flutes are well-defined but small and limited in number and distribution. (3) Surges of large tidewater glaciers produce distinctive, often multi-generational, landform assemblages both in submarine and lateral terrestrial positions. The well-preserved submarine record

  16. The contribution of pre- and postdisaster social support to short- and long-term mental health after Hurricanes Katrina: A longitudinal study of low-income survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Christian S; Lowe, Sarah R; Weber, Elyssa; Rhodes, Jean E

    2015-08-01

    A previous study of Hurricane Katrina survivors found that higher levels of predisaster social support were associated with lower psychological distress one year after the storm, and that this pathway was mediated by lower exposure to hurricane-related stressors. As a follow-up, we examined the impact of pre- and postdisaster social support on longer-term of mental health-both psychological distress and posttraumatic stress. In this three-wave longitudinal study, 492 residents in the region affected by Hurricane Katrina reported levels of perceived social support and symptoms of psychological distress prior to the storm (Wave 1). Subsequently, one year after Hurricane Katrina (Wave 2), they reported levels of exposure, perceived social support, and symptoms of psychological distress and posttraumatic stress. The latter three variables were assessed again four years after the hurricane (Wave 3). Results of mediation analysis indicated that levels of exposure to hurricane-related stressors mediated the relationship between Wave 1 perceived social support and Wave 3 psychological distress as well as postdisaster posttraumatic stress. Results of regression analyses indicated that, controlling for Wave 1 psychological distress and disaster exposure, Wave 2 perceived social support was associated with Wave 2 and Wave 3 psychological distress but not posttraumatic stress. Our results confirmed the social causation processes of social support and suggest that posttraumatic stress might not stem directly from the lack of social support. Rather, preexisting deficits in social resources might indirectly affect longer-term posttraumatic stress and general psychological distress by increasing risk for disaster-related stressors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Climatic Controls on the Distribution of Surging Glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevestre, H.; Benn, D.

    2012-12-01

    Surge-type glaciers are scattered in a non-random fashion, gathered in clusters in some glaciated regions. One group of clusters forms an Arctic and Sub-Arctic 'crescent', spanning from Alaska-Yukon, through Arctic Canada, West and East Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya. Another cluster occurs in western High Asia, including the Karakoram Mountains. Although several studies have assessed the influence of environmental controls on surging, so far none has provided a satisfactory explanation for the geographical location of these clusters. The distribution of such glaciers undoubtedly holds the keys of a better understanding on the controls on surging behaviour. For this study, two glacier populations are considered. First, a global inventory of glacier surges has been compiled, based on published observations, field reports and remote sensing studies. This digital database is structured in three tables, respectively providing information on the location and geometry of each surge-type glacier, surge dates and magnitude, and methodology employed at the time of observation. This global dataset is compared to the population of "non-surge-type glaciers" based on the Randolph Glacier Inventory version 2.0 excluding the inventoried surging glaciers. In both populations, glaciers are classified depending on their geometry and thermal regime. Downscaled climatic datasets are used to identify climatic envelopes associated with clusters of surging glaciers. We identified which environments are most prone to be associated to glacier surging, and examined the influence of these parameters on the surge cycle duration and character. These results emphasize the importance of external controls on surging (as against individual surges), and promote the need to study this behaviour in the frame of an energy-balance budget.

  18. Forecasting Hurricane by Satellite Image

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M. Y.

    Earth is an endanger planet. Severe weather, especially hurricanes, results in great disaster all the world. World Meteorology Organization and United Nations Environment Program established intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to offer warnings about the present and future disasters of the Earth. It is the mission for scientists to design warning system to predict the severe weather system and to reduce the damage of the Earth. Hurricanes invade all the world every year and made millions damage to all the people. Scientists in weather service applied satellite images and synoptic data to forecast the information for the next hours for warning purposes. Regularly, hurricane hits on Taiwan island directly will pass through her domain and neighbor within 10 hours. In this study, we are going to demonstrate a tricky hurricane NARI invaded Taiwan on September 16, 2000. She wandered in the neighborhood of the island more than 72 hours and brought heavy rainfall over the island. Her track is so tricky that scientists can not forecast her path using the regular method. Fortunately, all scientists in the Central Weather Bureau paid their best effort to fight against the tricky hurricane. Applying the new developed technique to analysis the satellite images with synoptic data and radar echo, scientists forecasted the track, intensity and rainfall excellently. Thus the damage of the severe weather reduced significantly.

  19. Deaths associated with Hurricane Sandy - October-November 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-24

    On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the northeastern U.S. coastline. Sandy's tropical storm winds stretched over 900 miles (1,440 km), causing storm surges and destruction over a larger area than that affected by hurricanes with more intensity but narrower paths. Based on storm surge predictions, mandatory evacuations were ordered on October 28, including for New York City's Evacuation Zone A, the coastal zone at risk for flooding from any hurricane. By October 31, the region had 6-12 inches (15-30 cm) of precipitation, 7-8 million customers without power, approximately 20,000 persons in shelters, and news reports of numerous fatalities (Robert Neurath, CDC, personal communication, 2013). To characterize deaths related to Sandy, CDC analyzed data on 117 hurricane-related deaths captured by American Red Cross (Red Cross) mortality tracking during October 28-November 30, 2012. This report describes the results of that analysis, which found drowning was the most common cause of death related to Sandy, and 45% of drowning deaths occurred in flooded homes in Evacuation Zone A. Drowning is a leading cause of hurricane death but is preventable with advance warning systems and evacuation plans. Emergency plans should ensure that persons receive and comprehend evacuation messages and have the necessary resources to comply with them.

  20. The effect of proximity to hurricanes Katrina and Rita on subsequent hurricane outlook and optimistic bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbo, Craig; Lueck, Michelle; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori

    2011-12-01

    This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was hypothesized that hurricane outlook and optimistic bias for hurricane risk would be associated positively with distance from the Katrina-Rita landfall (more optimism at greater distance), controlling for historically based hurricane risk and county population density, demographics, individual hurricane experience, and dispositional optimism. Data were collected in January 2006 through a mail survey sent to 1,375 households in 41 counties on the coast (n = 824, 60% response). The analysis used hierarchal regression to test hypotheses. Hurricane history and population density had no effect on outlook; individuals who were male, older, and with higher household incomes were associated with lower risk perception; individual hurricane experience and personal impacts from Katrina and Rita predicted greater risk perception; greater dispositional optimism predicted more optimistic outlook; distance had a small effect but predicted less optimistic outlook at greater distance (model R(2) = 0.21). The model for optimistic bias had fewer effects: age and community tenure were significant; dispositional optimism had a positive effect on optimistic bias; distance variables were not significant (model R(2) = 0.05). The study shows that an existing measure of hurricane outlook has utility, hurricane outlook appears to be a unique concept from hurricane optimistic bias, and proximity has at most small effects. Future extension of this research will include improved conceptualization and measurement of hurricane risk perception and will bring to focus several concepts involving risk communication. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. How study of hurricane swell can help to provide a better prediction of the tsunami wave propagation on Caribbean coasts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorville, Jean-François; Dondin, Frédéric; Cécé, Raphael; Bernard, Didier

    2014-05-01

    Prediction of tsunami wave propagation on a complex bathymetry can be fatal. Do a mistake on the location of the tsunami wave impact on the coast is highly dangerous. The destruction due to mechanical impact or submersion of the large area of the coast zone can be avoid with a good estimation (i.e.; height, location, duration) of the hazard. Features of the propagation are important in term of values but also in term of dynamic, an evacuation plan is directly base on the prediction of the sequence of events. The frequency of large tsunami is low, but the study of real case may help to have a complete comprehension of the process. We would be better prepare for a tsunami if we had more tsunami. Caribbean arc was generated by an intense tectonic motion and volcanic activity. The risk of tsunami is high in the area both generated by tectonic motion and volcanic landslide. The quality of a numerical propagation of tsunami is highly dependent of the quality of the DEM Caribbean coast are impact by large Hurricane wave. The study of those can be helpful in the tsunami study, particularly for the bathymetry effect on large wave. The shape of the both types of wave are not the same, we do not try to do a direct comparison, but used the information of the dispersion of large swell wave to applied it to the tsunami dispersion and fill the lack of information of the bathymetry. We focus on the comparative study of the propagation of tsunami wave generated by submarine volcano land slide and hurricane wave on a small scale bathymetry (10 m, Lito 3d). The case of Guadeloupe and Martinique island are detailed in this study, due to the available dataset. We used those two territories as reference area. The numerical propagation of the waves is done with FUNWAVE on two different bathymetry (10 m & 50 m). The tsunami wave was generated by VolcFlow in case of submarine volcano collapse and the swell determine by coupling of WaveWatchIII and SWAN in case of past Hurricane. The

  2. Hurricane Ike: Field Investigation Survey (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, L.

    2009-12-01

    much of the storm surge, although there was some overtopping and debris was washed over Seawall Boulevard. In contrast, the geotextile tubes that were in used on Bolivar Peninsula and west Galveston were too low to provide an effective barrier to extreme storm surge or to prevent overtopping. Scour and wave erosion were noticeable for all structures, removing sand from the jetties at Rollover Pass, eroding backfill from the west end of the Galveston Seawall and dislocating toe stone and causing rotation of some geotextile tubes. Material for this presentation draw upon the forthcoming ASCE Report, A Report of Field Observations made 3 - 6 October 2008 and “Field investigation of Hurricane Ike impacts to the upper Texas coast” (Ewing et al. 2009) References ASCE Hurricane Ike Field Investigation Team (in production) A Report of Field Observations made 3 - 6 October 2008; sponsored by Coasts, Oceans, Ports and Rivers Institute and Geotechnical Institute of American Society of Civil Engineers. Ewing, Lesley., Donald K. Stauble, Paul A. Work, Billy L. Edge, Spencer M. Rogers, Mandy U. Loeffler, James M. Kaihatu, Margery Overton, Jeffery P. Waters, Kojiro Suzuki, Robert G. Dean, Marie H. Garrett, Eddie Wiggins, and Garry H. Gregory (2009) “Field Investigation of Hurricane Ike Impacts to the Upper Texas Coast” Shore & Beach, vol. 77(2) 9 - 23.

  3. Traumatic Loss and Natural Disaster: A Case Study of a School-Based Response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clettenberg, Stacey; Gentry, Judy; Held, Matthew; Mock, Lou Ann

    2011-01-01

    This article tracks the trajectory and impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on the communities of Houston/Harris County, Texas, USA, the schools, children, and families; along with the community partnerships that addressed the trauma and upheaval. Following the influx of individuals and families who were displaced by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita…

  4. Traumatic Loss and Natural Disaster: A Case Study of a School-Based Response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clettenberg, Stacey; Gentry, Judy; Held, Matthew; Mock, Lou Ann

    2011-01-01

    This article tracks the trajectory and impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on the communities of Houston/Harris County, Texas, USA, the schools, children, and families; along with the community partnerships that addressed the trauma and upheaval. Following the influx of individuals and families who were displaced by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita…

  5. Future Flood Inundation and Damages from Storm Surge in the Coast of Virginia and Maryland with Projected Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaie, A. M.; Ferreira, C.; Walls, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    The recurrent flood risks on coastal areas in the United States (US) due to hurricane wind and storm surge are likely to rise with warmer climate, frequent storms, and increasing coastal population. Recent studies suggested that the global financial losses from hurricanes will be doubled by 2100 due to combined impact of climate change, sea level rise (SLR) and intensified hurricanes. While the predicted average SLR for the Mid-Atlantic region of the US is 2.2 meter, some coastal areas in Virginia (VA) and Maryland (MD) are expected to experience a 0.7 to 1.6m and 0.6 to 1.7m SLR respectively. Nearly 80 percent of the total $5.3 billion property damage by Hurricane Isabel in 2003 was within VA and MD. In order to provide a quantitative assessment of the future flooding and associated damages for projected climate change and SLR scenarios, this study integrated state-of-the-art coastal numerical model ADCIRC with a careful economic valuation exercise of flood damages. The study area covers the entire coastal zone of VA and MD focusing on regions that are in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Ocean with high susceptibility to storm surge and flooding. Multiple climate change land cover scenarios generated by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) under a series of the IPCC's Emissions Scenarios are incorporated in the modeling approach to integrate climate change whereas local SLR projections are included to provide the regional aspects of future risks. Preliminary results for hurricane Isabel (2003) shows that a 2.3m rise in sea level can cause storm surges rising up to 3-4m in the coastal areas. While a 0.5m SLR makes the range 1-2.5m in the affected areas. It is also seen that higher increase in the sea level not only causes higher range of inundation but a greater extent of flood as well. The projected inland flooding extents are highest for the SRES A2 Scenario. Alongside an estimate of future loss and damage will be prepared to assist in

  6. Nexrad-In-Space - A Geostationary Satellite Doppler Weather Radar for Hurricane Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, E.; Chandrasekar, V.; Chen, S. S.; Holland, G. J.; Kakar, R.; Lewis, W. E.; Marks, F. D.; Smith, E. A.; Tanelli, S.; Tripoli, G. J.

    2007-12-01

    The Nexrad-In-Space (NIS) is a revolutionary atmospheric radar observation concept from the geostationary orbiting platform. It was developed over the last 4 years under the auspices of NASA's Earth Science Instrument Incubator Program (IIP). The NIS radar would provide Ka-band (35 GHz) reflectivity and line-of-sight Doppler velocity profiles over a circular Earth region of approximately 5200 km in diameter with a 12-km horizontal resolution, and a minimum detectable signal of 5 dBZ. The NIS radar achieves its superb sampling capabilities by use of a 35-m diameter, deployable antenna made from lightweight membrane material. The antenna has two transmit-receive array pairs that create a dual-beam, spiral-feed combined profile image of both reflectivity and Doppler velocity approximately every 60 minutes. This sampling time can be shortened even further by increasing the number of transmit-receive array pairs. It is generally recognized that the processes important in governing hurricane intensity and structure span a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The environmental forcing considerations require a large domain. The vortex response to the environmental forcing ultimately involves convection on small horizontal scales in the eyewall and rainband regions. Resolving this environment-vortex-convection feedback in a numerical model requires observations on the space and time scales necessary to unambiguously define these structures within and surrounding the tropical cyclone. Because the time and space scales of these processes are small, continuous 3-dimensional independent observations of the 3-dimensional wind and precipitation structures will be needed to initialize numerical models critical for this purpose. The proposed NIS Doppler radar would be the first instrument capable of accomplishing this feat at time scales less than hours, and would create the opportunity for hurricane science to enter a new era of understanding and improved prediction. This

  7. Heterogeneity in Karakoram glacier surges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quincey, Duncan J.; Glasser, Neil F.; Cook, Simon J.; Luckman, Adrian

    2015-07-01

    Many Karakoram glaciers periodically undergo surges during which large volumes of ice and debris are rapidly transported downglacier, usually at a rate of 1-2 orders of magnitude greater than during quiescence. Here we identify eight recent surges in the region and map their surface velocities using cross-correlation feature tracking on optical satellite imagery. In total, we present 44 surface velocity data sets, which show that Karakoram surges are generally short-lived, lasting between 3 and 5 years in most cases, and have rapid buildup and relaxation phases, often lasting less than a year. Peak velocities of up to 2 km a-1 are reached during summer months, and the surges tend to diminish during winter months. Otherwise, they do not follow a clearly identifiable pattern. In two of the surges, the peak velocity travels down-ice through time as a wave, which we interpret as a surge front. Three other surges are characterized by high velocities that occur simultaneously across the entire glacier surface, and acceleration and deceleration are close to monotonic. There is also no consistent seasonal control on surge initiation or termination. We suggest that the differing styles of surge can be partly accounted for by individual glacier configurations and that while some characteristics of Karakoram surges are akin to thermally controlled surges elsewhere (e.g., Svalbard), the dominant surge mechanism remains unclear. We thus propose that these surges represent a spectrum of flow instabilities and the processes controlling their evolution may vary on a glacier by glacier basis.

  8. Design and Characterization of a Centrifugal Compressor Surge Test Rig

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    A detailed description of a new centrifugal compressor surge test rig is presented. The objective of the design and development of the rig is to study the surge phenomenon in centrifugal compression systems and to investigate a novel method of surge control by active magnetic bearing servo actuation of the impeller axial tip clearance. In this paper, we focus on the design, initial setup, and testing of the rig. The latter two include the commissioning of the rig and the experimental characte...

  9. On the contribution of reconstruction labor wages and material prices to demand surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Anna H.; Porter, Keith A.

    2011-01-01

    Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon of large-scale natural disasters, most commonly explained by higher repair costs (after a large- versus small-scale disaster) resulting from higher material prices and labor wages. This study tests this explanation by developing quantitative models for the cost change of sets, or "baskets," of repairs to damage caused by Atlantic hurricanes making landfall on the mainland United States. We define six such baskets, representing the total repair cost, and material and labor components, each for a typical residential or commercial property. We collect cost data from the leading provider of these data to insurance claims adjusters in the United States, and we calculate the cost changes from July to January for nine Atlantic hurricane seasons at fifty-two cities on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The data show that: changes in labor costs drive the changes in total repair costs; cost changes can vary significantly by geographic region and year; and cost changes for the residential basket of repairs are more volatile than the cost changes for the commercial basket. We then propose a series of multilevel regression models to predict the cost changes by considering several combinations of the following explanatory variables: the largest gradient wind speed at a city in a hurricane season; the number of tropical storms in a hurricane season whose center passes within 200 km of a city; and cost changes in the first two quarters of the year. We also allow the coefficients of the regression model to be stochastic, varying across groups defined by region of the Southeastern United States and year. Our best models predict that, for any city on the Gulf or Atlantic Coasts in any hurricane season, the residential total repair cost changes vary from 0.01 to 0.25, depending on the wind speed and number of storms, with an uncertainty of 0.1 (two standard errors of prediction) given the wind speed and number of storms. The

  10. Hurricane risk management and climate information gatekeeping in southeast Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treuer, G.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical storms provide fresh water necessary for healthy economies and health ecosystems. Hurricanes, massive tropical storms, threaten catastrophic flooding and wind damage. Sea level rise exacerbates flooding risks from rain and storm surge for coastal communities. Climate change adaptation measures to manage this risk must be implemented locally, but actions at other levels of government and by neighboring communities impact the options available to local municipalities. When working on adaptation local decision makers must balance multiple types of risk: physical or scientifically described risks, legal risks, and political risks. Generating usable or actionable climate science is a goal of the academic climate community. To do this we need to expand our analysis to include types of risk that constrain the use of objective science. Integrating physical, legal, and political risks is difficult. Each requires specific expertise and uses unique language. An opportunity exists to study how local decision makers manage all three on a daily basis and how their risk management impacts climate resilience for communities and ecosystems. South Florida's particular vulnerabilities make it an excellent case study. Besides physical vulnerabilities (low elevation, intense coastal development, frequent hurricanes, compromised ecosystems) it also has unique legal and political challenges. Federal and state property rights protections create legal risks for government action that restricts land use to promote climate adaptation. Also, a lack of cases that deal with climate change creates uncertainty about the nature of these legal risks. Politically Florida is divided ideologically and geographically. The regions in the southeast which are most vulnerable are predominantly Hispanic and under-represented at the state level, where leadership on climate change is functionally nonexistent. It is conventional wisdom amongst water managers in Florida that little climate adaptation

  11. Change in distribution and composition of vegetated habitats on Horn Island, Mississippi, northern Gulf of Mexico, in the initial five years following Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, K. L.; Carter, G. A.

    2013-10-01

    In the northern Gulf of Mexico, sudden alterations to barrier islands occur relatively often as a result of hurricanes. Barrier island vegetation is affected by storm impacts, such as burial under sand overwash and direct removal by erosion, and also by wind-driven salt spray and flooding by saltwater tidal surge. This study utilized field surveys in conjunction with remotely-sensed data to evaluate changes in the composition and distribution of vegetation on Horn Island, Mississippi, U.S.A., in the initial five years after Hurricane Katrina. The majority of habitat change occurred closer to the shoreline and in areas of overwash. Habitat change was most often associated with an adjustment to higher-elevation plant communities at the expense of wetlands. In addition, substantial tree and shrub mortality as a result of wind, storm surge, salt-spray, and saltwater flooding reduced maritime forest and stable dune habitat, decreasing habitat stability and ecosystem maturity. The lag time in vegetation establishment and foredune development following the storm allowed for sediment transport into back-barrier habitats. Thus, postponing restoration efforts, such as dune plantings or fencing, until at least one full growing season has elapsed following a hurricane may provide back-barrier habitats with the sediment deposition needed to offset sea-level rise and subsidence.

  12. Over 400 previously undocumented Svalbard surge-type glaciers identified

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farnsworth, Wesley R.; Ingólfsson, Ólafur; Retelle, Michael; Schomacker, Anders

    2016-07-01

    Identifying glaciers that exhibit surge-type behavior is important when using evidence of ice front fluctuations as a proxy for reconstructing past climate oscillations. This study identifies previously undocumented surge-type glaciers in Svalbard, based on the presence of crevasse squeeze ridges in glacier forelands. Crevasse squeeze ridges are landforms suggested to be unique to surging glacier land systems. Estimates vary greatly as to the actual percentage of surge-type glaciers in Svalbard, and consequently their distribution pattern is poorly understood. A detailed survey of recent (2008-2012), high-resolution aerial imagery from TopoSvalbard, provided by the Norwegian Polar Institute, allowed for a survey of all the glacier forelands in Svalbard. Before our study, 277 individual glaciers in Svalbard have been documented to exhibit surge behavior. By using crevasse squeeze ridges as indicators of surge behavior, we have identified 431 additional glaciers that have surged. We suggest that this is a modest value as the unique surge landforms were not visible in approximately one-third of the forelands with documented surge histories. Limits to the crevasse squeeze ridge technique are presented and potential controlling factors for crevasse squeeze ridge formation/preservation are discussed.

  13. Storm surge variational assimilation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-li HUANG

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available To eliminate errors caused by uncertainty of parameters and further improve capability of storm surge forecasting, the variational data assimilation method is applied to the storm surge model based on unstructured grid with high spatial resolution. The method can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy of storm surge induced by typhoon through controlling wind drag force coefficient parameter. The model is first theoretically validated with synthetic data. Then, the real storm surge process induced by the TC 0515 typhoon is forecasted by the variational data assimilation model, and results show the feasibility of practical application.

  14. Hurricane Charley Exposure and Hazard of Preterm Delivery, Florida 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabich, Shannon C; Robinson, Whitney R; Engel, Stephanie M; Konrad, Charles E; Richardson, David B; Horney, Jennifer A

    2016-12-01

    Objective Hurricanes are powerful tropical storm systems with high winds which influence many health effects. Few studies have examined whether hurricane exposure is associated with preterm delivery. We aimed to estimate associations between maternal hurricane exposure and hazard of preterm delivery. Methods We used data on 342,942 singleton births from Florida Vital Statistics Records 2004-2005 to capture pregnancies at risk of delivery during the 2004 hurricane season. Maternal exposure to Hurricane Charley was assigned based on maximum wind speed in maternal county of residence. We estimated hazards of overall preterm delivery (<37 gestational weeks) and extremely preterm delivery (<32 gestational weeks) in Cox regression models, adjusting for maternal/pregnancy characteristics. To evaluate heterogeneity among racial/ethnic subgroups, we performed analyses stratified by race/ethnicity. Additional models investigated whether exposure to multiples hurricanes increased hazard relative to exposure to one hurricane. Results Exposure to wind speeds ≥39 mph from Hurricane Charley was associated with a 9 % (95 % CI 3, 16 %) increase in hazard of extremely preterm delivery, while exposure to wind speed ≥74 mph was associated with a 21 % (95 % CI 6, 38 %) increase. Associations appeared greater for Hispanic mothers compared to non-Hispanic white mothers. Hurricane exposure did not appear to be associated with hazard of overall preterm delivery. Exposure to multiple hurricanes did not appear more harmful than exposure to a single hurricane. Conclusions Hurricane exposure may increase hazard of extremely preterm delivery. As US coastal populations and hurricane severity increase, the associations between hurricane and preterm delivery should be further studied.

  15. From solitary wave to traveling surge

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宋礼庭

    1995-01-01

    The solution of kinetic Alfven wave under action of anomalous resistance has two branches: the slow wave, VPsurge and the fast wave VP>VA cosθ will be in a wave-broken state. Such traveling surge structure is a typical self-organization phenomenon and its wave form is determined by parameter β which represents the magnitude of resistance. High β leads to shock-like structure and low β to the appearance of some solitary waves in front of the shock. According to the study on solitary wave, shock wave and traveling surge in conjunction with self-organization of nonlinear dynamics, a general definition of wave can be given.

  16. Hurricane Sandy science plan: coastal impact assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stronko, Jakob M.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: coastal topography and bathymetry, impacts to coastal beaches and barriers, impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology, impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures, impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife. This fact sheet focuses assessing impacts to coastal beaches and barriers.

  17. National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards: Southeast Atlantic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Thompson, David M.; Sopkin, Kristin L.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2013-01-01

    Beaches serve as a natural barrier between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and natural resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During extreme storms, changes to beaches can be large, and the results are sometimes catastrophic. Lives may be lost, communities destroyed, and millions of dollars spent on rebuilding. During storms, large waves may erode beaches, and high storm surge shifts the erosive force of the waves higher on the beach. In some cases, the combined effects of waves and surge may cause overwash or flooding. Building and infrastructure on or near a dune can be undermined during wave attack and subsequent erosion. During Hurricane Ivan in 2004, a five-story condominium in Orange Beach, Alabama, collapsed after the sand dune supporting the foundation eroded. The September 1999 landfall of Hurricane Dennis caused erosion and undermining that destroyed roads, foundations, and septic systems. Waves overtopping a dune can transport sand inland, covering roads and blocking evacuation routes or emergency relief. If storm surge inundates barrier island dunes, currents flowing across the island can create a breach, or new inlet, completely severing evacuation routes. Waves and surge during the 2003 landfall of Hurricane Isabel left a 200-meter (m) wide breach that cut the only road to and from the village of Hatteras, N.C. Extreme coastal changes caused by hurricanes may increase the vulnerability of communities both during a storm and to future storms. For example, when sand dunes on a barrier island are eroded substantially, inland structures are exposed to storm surge and waves. Absent or low dunes also allow water to flow inland across the island, potentially increasing storm surge in the back bay, on the soundside of the barrier, and on the mainland. During Hurricane Isabel the protective sand dunes near the breach were completely eroded, increasing vulnerability to future

  18. Sedimentary record of storm deposits from Hurricane Ike, Galveston and San Luis Islands, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkes, A. D.; Horton, B. P.

    2012-10-01

    Prehistoric records of land-falling tropical cyclones further our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of tropical cyclone activity and its relationship with global climatic changes. Here, we describe deposit stratigraphy and sedimentology resulting from overwash during Hurricane Ike, which made landfall on September 13th 2008, to provide a much needed modern analogue for paleo-hurricane deposits and evaluate the hurricane's influence on barrier stability. We compared the volume, grain size distribution, organic content and foraminiferal assemblages of washover deposits at three sites from Galveston and San Luis Islands, Texas that were up to 50 km west of Ike's landfall. Storm surge heights varied between 3.7 and 2.7 m with inland inundation extents of 330 to 113 m. At each of the study sites, Hurricane Ike eroded the shoreline and re-deposited a landward-thinning sand sheet between 0.02 and 0.28 m thick over short-grass prairie/salt-marsh soil. Shoreline erosion estimates suggest that only between 10 and 30% of eroded beach sediment is deposited on land as washover (net gain to barrier elevation), while the remainder is re-deposited subtidally or offshore, a potential net loss to the coastal sediment budget. The washover sediment was readily identifiable by abrupt changes in grain size, organic content, and buried in situ grasses. Foraminiferal assemblages within washover and short-grass prairie/salt-marsh sediments (when present) have similar assemblages, which are dominated by Ammonia spp. and Elphidium spp. These species are common to bay and nearshore environments of the Gulf of Mexico. Foraminiferal species Bolivina subaenariensis, Quinqueloculina seminulum and planktonic species are restricted to the washover deposits, which may suggest sediment provenance from inner shelf environments.

  19. Recovering from Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Nadine

    2006-01-01

    The Gulf Coast region suffered an unusually severe hurricane season in 2005: Hurricane Katrina (August 28-29, 2005) devastated much of southern Mississippi and Louisiana. Approximately 2,700 licensed early care and education facilities in those states and in Alabama were affected by Katrina, in addition to an unknown number of family child care…

  20. Quantification of Storm Surge Using A Python-based ArcGIS Toolbox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, S.; Siverd, C. G.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Alizad, K.

    2016-12-01

    Geographic Information System (GIS) technology allows the organization, manipulation, analysis, and visualization of spatial data (Fischer, 2010). Although GIS provides some operations for spatial analysis, the methods are often only partially implemented and can be difficult to find and use effectively (Rigol-Sanchez et al., 2015). For coastal researchers, development of automated GIS tools is essential to efficiently analyze coastal flood risk from hurricanes. An adaptive GIS toolbox, Quantitative Surge Analysis Tool (QSAT), was developed and implements ArcGIS software and Python scripts to quantify attributes of hurricane storm surge (e.g., average water surface elevation). The python script provides a way to allow researchers to reduce the amount of time spent developing common solutions (Etherington, 2010) and repeating manual operations. The QSAT contains tools that run in the ArcGIS program. These tools compute average water surface elevation, average inundation depth, inundated area, total surge volume, percent of land inundated, and retention time for a given polygonal area. A new shapefile is created with a detail attribute table containing the various surge quantities. The toolbox is designed to directly read data files produced by an ADCIRC storm surge simulation as well as a polygon shapefile defining the areas of interest. The functionality of the QSAT toolbox was tested using Hydrologic Unit Code 12 (HUC 12) polygons of coastal Louisiana and ADCIRC model results from a simulation of Hurricane Gustav. The QSAT aids a streamlined transition of surge quantities across a local medium (i.e. HUC 12s) to better inform stakeholders and lead to improved regional and local decisions.

  1. Coastal Change During Hurricane Isabel 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Karen

    2009-01-01

    On September 18, 2003, Hurricane Isabel made landfall on the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina. At the U.S. Army Corps of Engineer's Field Research Facility in Duck, 125 km north of where the eyewall cut across Hatteras Island, the Category 2 storm generated record conditions for the 27 years of monitoring. The storm produced an 8.1 m high wave measured at a waverider buoy in 20 m of water and a 1.5 m storm surge. As part of a program to document and better understand the changes in vulnerability of the Nation's coasts to extreme storms, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), surveyed the impact zone of Hurricane Isabel. Methods included pre- and post-storm photography, videography, and lidar. Hurricane Isabel caused extensive erosion and overwash along the Outer Banks near Cape Hatteras, including the destruction of houses, the erosion of protective sand dunes, and the creation of island breaches. The storm eroded beaches and dunes in Frisco and Hatteras Village, southwest of the Cape. Overwash deposits covered roads and filled homes with sand. The most extensive beach changes were associated with the opening of a new breach about 500 m wide that divided into three separate channels that completely severed the island southwest of Cape Hatteras. The main breach, and a smaller one several kilometers to the south (not shown), occurred at minima in both island elevation and island width.

  2. Storm surges formation in the White and Barents Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobrolyubov, Sergey; Korablina, Anastasia; Myslenkov, Stanislav

    2016-04-01

    Investigation of storm surges in the Arctic seas are of high priority in Russia due to the active development of offshore oil and gas, construction of facilities in the coastal zone, as well as for the safety of navigation. It is important to study the variability of surges, to predict this phenomena and subsequent economic losses, thus including such information into the Russian Arctic Development Program 2020. Surges in the White and Barents Seas are caused mainly by deep cyclones of two types: "diving" from the north (88% of all cyclones) and western. The average height of the storm surges in the White Sea is 0.6-0.9 m. An average duration of storm surges is about 80 hours. Mathematical modeling is used to analyze the characteristics of storm surges formation in the Dvina Bay of the White Sea, and in the Varandey village on the Barents Sea coast. Calculating storm surge heights in the White and Barents seas is performed using the ADCIRC model on an unstructured grid with a step from 20 km in the Barents Sea to 100 m in the White Sea. Unstructured grids allowed keeping small features of the coastline of the White and Barents seas, small islands and shallow banks, and assessing their impact on the development and transformation of wind-generated waves. The ADCIRC model used data of wind field reanalysis CFSv2. The storm surges were simulated for the time period from 1979 to 2010 and included scenarios with / without direct atmospheric pressure forcing, waves and tides. Numerical experiments have revealed distribution of storm surges in channels of the Northern Dvina River delta. The storm surges spreads in the model from the north-north-west of the Dvina Bay. As storm surge moves from the wellhead to the seaside estuary of the Northern Dvina (district Solombala), its height increases from 0.5 to 2 m. We also found a non-linear interaction of the surge and tide during the phase of surge destruction. This phenomenon is the highest in the period of low water, and the

  3. Positive feedback stabilization of centrifugal compressor surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willems, Frank; Heemels, W.P.M.H.; de Jager, Bram; Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij

    2002-01-01

    Stable operation of axial and centrifugal compressors is limited towards low mass flows due to the occurrence of surge. The stable operating region can be enlarged by active control. In this study, we use a control valve which is fully closed in the desired operating point and only opens to stabiliz

  4. Positive feedback stabilization of centrifugal compressor surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willems, Frank; Heemels, W.P.M.H.; de Jager, Bram; Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij

    Stable operation of axial and centrifugal compressors is limited towards low mass flows due to the occurrence of surge. The stable operating region can be enlarged by active control. In this study, we use a control valve which is fully closed in the desired operating point and only opens to

  5. Scenario-based Storm Surge Vulnerability Assessment of Catanduanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, J. K. B.

    2015-12-01

    After the devastating storm surge effect of Typhoon Haiyan, the public recognized an improved communication about risks, vulnerabilities and what is threatened by storm surge. This can be provided by vulnerability maps which allow better visual presentations and understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities. Local implementers can direct the resources needed for protection of these areas. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are relevant in all phases of disaster management designed by the National Disaster Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC) - disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation and response and recovery and rehabilitation. This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability of Catanduanes, a coastal province in the Philippines, to storm surges in terms of four parameters: population, built environment, natural environment and agricultural production. The vulnerability study relies on the storm surge inundation maps based on the Department of Science and Technology Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards' (DOST-Project NOAH) proposed four Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) scenarios (1-2, 3, 4, and 5 meters) for predicting storm surge heights. To determine total percent affected for each parameter elements, an overlay analysis was performed in ArcGIS Desktop. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are generated as a final output and a tool for visualizing the impacts of storm surge event at different surge heights. The result of this study would help the selected province to know their present condition and adapt strategies to strengthen areas where they are found to be most vulnerable in order to prepare better for the future.

  6. Impact of Hurricane Exposure on Reproductive Health Outcomes, Florida, 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabich, Shannon C; Robinson, Whitney R; Konrad, Charles E; Horney, Jennifer A

    2017-08-01

    Prenatal hurricane exposure may be an increasingly important contributor to poor reproductive health outcomes. In the current literature, mixed associations have been suggested between hurricane exposure and reproductive health outcomes. This may be due, in part, to residual confounding. We assessed the association between hurricane exposure and reproductive health outcomes by using a difference-in-difference analysis technique to control for confounding in a cohort of Florida pregnancies. We implemented a difference-in-difference analysis to evaluate hurricane weather and reproductive health outcomes including low birth weight, fetal death, and birth rate. The study population for analysis included all Florida pregnancies conceived before or during the 2003 and 2004 hurricane season. Reproductive health data were extracted from vital statistics records from the Florida Department of Health. In 2004, 4 hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) made landfall in rapid succession; whereas in 2003, no hurricanes made landfall in Florida. Overall models using the difference-in-difference analysis showed no association between exposure to hurricane weather and reproductive health. The inconsistency of the literature on hurricane exposure and reproductive health may be in part due to biases inherent in pre-post or regression-based county-level comparisons. We found no associations between hurricane exposure and reproductive health. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:407-411).

  7. Lithium-bearing fluor-arfvedsonite from Hurricane Mountain, New Hampshire: A crystal-chemical study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawthorne, F.C.; Oberti, R.; Ottolini, L.; Foord, E.E.

    1996-01-01

    The structures of two crystals of Li-bearing fluor-arfvedsonite (1) (K0.32Na0.68)Na2(Li0.48Fe 2+2.83Mn2+0.10Zn 0.06Fe3+1.46Ti0.07) (Si7.88Al0.12)O22[Fu1.15(OH) 0.85] and (2) (K0.25Na0.75)Na2(Li0.48Fe 2+2.84Mn2+0.11Zn 0.05Fe3+1.45Ti0.07)(Si 7.89Al0.11)O22[F1.35(OH) 0.65] from a granitic pegmatite, Hurricane Mountain, New Hampshire, have been refined to R indices of 1.5(1.6)% based on 1380(1387) reflections measured with MoK?? X-radiation. The unit cell parameters are (1) a 9.838(4), b 17.991(6), c 5.315(2) A??, 103.78(3)??, V 913.7 A??3 and (2) a 9.832(3), b 17.990(7), c 5.316(3) A??, ?? 103.79(3)??, V 913.2 A??3. Site-scattering refinement shows Li to be completely ordered at the M(3) site in these crystals. The amphibole composition is intermediate between fluor-arfvedsonite and fluor-ferro-leakeite with a small component (???10%) of fluor-ferro-ferri-nybo??ite. These amphibole crystals project into miarolitic cavities in a pegmatitic phase of a riebeckite granite. The early-crystallizing amphibole is close to fluor-ferro-leakeite in composition, but becomes progressively depleted in Li and F as crystals project out into miarolitic cavities; the final amphibole to crystallize is a fibrous Li-poor riebeckite. Li plays a significant role in late-stage fractionation involving the crystallization of alkali amphibole in peralkaline granitic environments.

  8. Hurricane Imaging Radiometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecil, Daniel J.; Biswas, Sayak K.; James, Mark W.; Roberts, J. Brent; Jones, W. Linwood; Johnson, James; Farrar, Spencer; Sahawneh, Saleem; Ruf, Christopher S.; Morris, Mary; hide

    2014-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a synthetic thinned array passive microwave radiometer designed to allow retrieval of surface wind speed in hurricanes, up through category five intensity. The retrieval technology follows the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which measures surface wind speed in hurricanes along a narrow strip beneath the aircraft. HIRAD maps wind speeds in a swath below the aircraft, about 50-60 km wide when flown in the lower stratosphere. HIRAD has flown in the NASA Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment in 2010 on a WB-57 aircraft, and on a Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) in 2012 and 2013 as part of NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) program. The GRIP program included flights over Hurricanes Earl and Karl (2010). The 2012 HS3 deployment did not include any hurricane flights for the UAS carrying HIRAD. The 2013 HS3 flights included one flight over the predecessor to TS Gabrielle, and one flight over Hurricane Ingrid. This presentation will describe the HIRAD instrument, its results from the 2010 and 2013 flights, and potential future developments.

  9. Research Methods in Child Disaster Studies: A Review of Studies Generated by the September 11, 2001, Terrorist Attacks; the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami; and Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weems, Carl F.; Scott, Brandon G.; Nitiéma, Pascal; Noffsinger, Mary A.; Pfefferbaum, Rose L.; Varma, Vandana; Chakraburtty, Amarsha

    2013-01-01

    Background A comprehensive review of the design principles and methodological approaches that have been used to make inferences from the research on disasters in children is needed. Objective To identify the methodological approaches used to study children’s reactions to three recent major disasters—the September 11, 2001, attacks; the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami; and Hurricane Katrina. Methods This review was guided by a systematic literature search. Results A total of 165 unduplicated empirical reports were generated by the search and examined for this review. This included 83 references on September 11, 29 on the 2004 Tsunami, and 53 on Hurricane Katrina. Conclusions A diversity of methods has been brought to bear in understanding children’s reactions to disasters. While cross-sectional studies predominate, pre-event data for some investigations emerged from archival data and data from studies examining non-disaster topics. The nature and extent of the influence of risk and protective variables beyond disaster exposure are not fully understood due, in part, to limitations in the study designs used in the extant research. Advancing an understanding of the roles of exposure and various individual, family, and social factors depends upon the extent to which measures and assessment techniques are valid and reliable, as well as on data sources and data collection designs. Comprehensive assessments that extend beyond questionnaires and checklists to include interviews and cognitive and biological measures to elucidate the negative and positive effects of disasters on children also may improve the knowledge base. PMID:24443635

  10. Switching Surge Analysis of Vacuum Circuit Breaker using EMTP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ik Mo; Kim, Ji Hong [Hyundai Heavy Industry, Mechatronics Research Institute (Korea)

    2000-07-01

    The first objective of this study is to set up the switching surge analysis method in motor driving distribution system. The simplified model which can simulate the motor energization and circuit breaker re-ignitions, and each circuit element model is presented in this paper. The second objective is to calculate the quantity of surge over-voltage in real nuclear power station. And the surge suppressing measures are verified on the simulation basis. It is clarified that most cases are not satisfactory to meet the IEEE standard 522-1992 without using surge suppressing measures. In cases that the surge arrester are installed in distribution board at the load side of circuit breaker. The IEEE specification is fully met. (author). 6 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

  11. Investigation of Surge Behavior in a Micro Centrifugal Compressor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shimpei MIZUKI; Yuichiro ASAGA; Yushi ONO; Hoshio TSUJITA

    2006-01-01

    This paper reports the experimental and theoretical study of the surge occurred in prototyping an ultra micro centrifugal compressor. As the first step, the 10 times size model of an ultra micro centrifugal compressor having the 40 mm outer diameter was designed and manufactured. The detailed experimental investigations for the transient behavior of surge with several different values of B parameter were carried out. The experimental results during the surge were compared with those obtained by the non-linear lumped parameter theory in order to validate the effectiveness of the theoretical surge model for the micro centrifugal compressor. As a result, the quite different behavior of the surge appeared for the different values of B both in the experiment and in the analysis.

  12. What can multiwave studies teach us about disaster research: an analysis of low-income Hurricane Katrina survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Gillian; Lowe, Sarah R; Rhodes, Jean E

    2012-06-01

    Previous research on natural disasters has been limited by a lack of predisaster data and statistical analyses that do not adequately predict change in psychological symptoms. In the current study, we addressed these limitations through analysis of 3 waves of data from a longitudinal investigation of 313 low-income, African American mothers who were exposed to Hurricane Katrina. Although postdisaster cross-sectional estimates of the impact of traumatic stress exposure and postdisaster social support on postdisaster psychological distress were somewhat inflated, the general trends persisted when controlling for predisaster data (B = 0.88 and -0.33, vs. B = 0.81 and -0.27, respectively). Hierarchical linear modeling of the 3 waves of data revealed that lower predisaster social support was associated with higher psychological distress at the time of the disaster (β = -.16), and that higher traumatic stress exposure was associated with greater increases in psychological distress after the storm (β = .86). Based on the results, we suggest that the impact of traumatic stress on psychological trajectories cannot be accounted for solely by preexisting risk, and recommend more complex research designs to further illuminate the complex, dynamic relationships between psychological distress, traumatic stress exposure, and social support. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

  13. Control Effect of a Large Geological Discontinuity on the Seismic Response and Stability of Underground Rock Caverns: A Case Study of the Baihetan #1 Surge Chamber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Zhen; Sheng, Qian; Leng, Xianlun

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, the seismic stability of the #1 surge chamber of the Baihetan hydropower plant, which is influenced by a large dominating geological discontinuity [the interlayer shear weakness zone (ISWZ) C2)], is studied. An advanced, nonlinear, continuously yielding (CY) model was adopted to describe the complex mechanical properties of ISWZ C2. This model considers a power function type, normal stress dependent behavior and the progressive damage that occurred during shear tests. The applicability of the CY model is proved via a comparison with field test results and the theoretical solution. Verification work was conducted in 3DEC code to show that the 3DEC software is suitable for implementing this model. Three ground motion waveforms were utilized to conduct a seismic analysis of the #1 surge chamber after a special response spectrum matching process. The seismic analysis confirmed the control effect of ISWZ C2 on the seismic stability of the cavern. The majority of the cavern's seismic displacement consists of elastic body movement, while the plastic deformation is relatively limited. Further, most of the deformations were caused by the contact deformation of C2. For the contact deformation of C2, the magnitude of permanent shear deformation is larger than that of the normal deformation. The magnitude of permanent shear deformation is more notable along the strike direction of C2, and the permanent normal displacement n of C2 mainly occurs along the dip direction of C2. Finally, the seismic stability of the cavern is assessed via the overload method. The seismic safety factor of the cavern is approximately 2-3.

  14. Examining the aftereffects of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans: a qualitative study of faculty and staff perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnham, Joy J; Hooper, Lisa M

    2012-01-01

    Researchers have reported how Hurricane Katrina has affected teachers who work with Kindergarten to Grade 12 (K-12), yet little is known about how the natural disaster has affected other important K-12 faculty and staff (e.g., coaches, librarians, school counselors, and cafeteria workers). Missing from the literature is the impact that this natural disaster has had on these formal (school counselors) and informal (coaches, librarians) helpers of K-12 students. Using a focus group methodology, the authors examined the aftereffects of Hurricane Katrina on 12 school employees in New Orleans, Louisiana, 18 months after the hurricane. Informed by qualitative content analysis, three emergent themes were identified: emotion-focused aftereffects, positive coping, and worry and fear. The implications for future research and promoting hope in mental health counseling are discussed.

  15. Examining the Aftereffects of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans: A Qualitative Study of Faculty and Staff Perceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joy J. Burnham

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Researchers have reported how Hurricane Katrina has affected teachers who work with Kindergarten to Grade 12 (K-12, yet little is known about how the natural disaster has affected other important K-12 faculty and staff (e.g., coaches, librarians, school counselors, and cafeteria workers. Missing from the literature is the impact that this natural disaster has had on these formal (school counselors and informal (coaches, librarians helpers of K-12 students. Using a focus group methodology, the authors examined the aftereffects of Hurricane Katrina on 12 school employees in New Orleans, Louisiana, 18 months after the hurricane. Informed by qualitative content analysis, three emergent themes were identified: emotion-focused aftereffects, positive coping, and worry and fear. The implications for future research and promoting hope in mental health counseling are discussed.

  16. What Can Multiwave Studies Teach Us About Disaster Research: An Analysis of Low-Income Hurricane Katrina Survivors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Gillian; Lowe, Sarah R.; Rhodes, Jean E.

    2013-01-01

    Previous research on natural disasters has been limited by a lack of predisaster data and statistical analyses that do not adequately predict change in psychological symptoms. In the current study, we addressed these limitations through analysis of 3 waves of data from a longitudinal investigation of 313 low-income, African American mothers who were exposed to Hurricane Katrina. Although postdisaster cross-sectional estimates of the impact of traumatic stress exposure and postdisaster social support on postdisaster psychological distress were somewhat inflated, the general trends persisted when controlling for predisaster data (B = 0.88 and −0.33, vs. B = 0.81 and −0.27, respectively). Hierarchical linear modeling of the 3 waves of data revealed that lower predisaster social support was associated with higher psychological distress at the time of the disaster (β = −.16), and that higher traumatic stress exposure was associated with greater increases in psychological distress after the storm (β = .86). Based on the results, we suggest that the impact of traumatic stress on psychological trajectories cannot be accounted for solely by preexisting risk, and recommend more complex research designs to further illuminate the complex, dynamic relationships between psychological distress, traumatic stress exposure, and social support. PMID:22684676

  17. Recent Developments of the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cocke, S.; Shin, D. W.; Annane, B.

    2016-12-01

    Catastrophe models are used extensively by the insurance industry to estimate losses due to natural hazards such as hurricanes and earthquakes. In the state of Florida, primary insurers for hurricane damage to residential properties are required by law to use certified catastrophe models to establish their premiums and capital reserves. The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM) is one of only five certified catastrophe models in Florida, and the only non-commercial model certified. The FPHLM has been funded through the Florida Legislature and is overseen by the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR). The model was developed by a consortium of universities and private consultants primary located in Florida, but includes some partners outside of the state. The FPHLM has met Florida requirements since 2006 and has undergone continuous evolution to maintain state-of-the-art capabilities and changes in state requirements established by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology. Recently the model has been undergoing major enhancement to incorporate damage due to flooding, which not only includes hurricane floods but floods due to all potential natural hazards. This work is being done in anticipation of future changes in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) that will bring private insurers to the flood market. The model will incorporate a surge model as well as an inland flood model. We will present progress on these recent enhancements along with additional progress of the model.

  18. Attenuation of Storm Surge Flooding By Wetlands in the Chesapeake Bay: An Integrated Geospatial Framework Evaluating Impacts to Critical Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalid, A.; Haddad, J.; Lawler, S.; Ferreira, C.

    2014-12-01

    Areas along the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries are extremely vulnerable to hurricane flooding, as evidenced by the costly effects and severe impacts of recent storms along the Virginia coast, such as Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Coastal wetlands, in addition to their ecological importance, are expected to mitigate the impact of storm surge by acting as a natural protection against hurricane flooding. Quantifying such interactions helps to provide a sound scientific basis to support planning and decision making. Using storm surge flooding from various historical hurricanes, simulated using a coupled hydrodynamic wave model (ADCIRC-SWAN), we propose an integrated framework yielding a geospatial identification of the capacity of Chesapeake Bay wetlands to protect critical infrastructure. Spatial identification of Chesapeake Bay wetlands is derived from the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI), National Land Cover Database (NLCD), and the Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP). Inventories of population and critical infrastructure are extracted from US Census block data and FEMA's HAZUS-Multi Hazard geodatabase. Geospatial and statistical analyses are carried out to develop a relationship between wetland land cover, hurricane flooding, population and infrastructure vulnerability. These analyses result in the identification and quantification of populations and infrastructure in flooded areas that lie within a reasonable buffer surrounding the identified wetlands. Our analysis thus produces a spatial perspective on the potential for wetlands to attenuate hurricane flood impacts in critical areas. Statistical analysis will support hypothesis testing to evaluate the benefits of wetlands from a flooding and storm-surge attenuation perspective. Results from geospatial analysis are used to identify where interactions with critical infrastructure are relevant in the Chesapeake Bay.

  19. Drag Coefficient and Foam in Hurricane Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golbraikh, E.; Shtemler, Y.

    2016-12-01

    he present study is motivated by recent findings of saturation and even decrease in the drag coefficient (capping) in hurricane conditions, which is accompanied by the production of a foam layer on the ocean surface. As it is difficult to expect at present a comprehensive numerical modeling of the drag coefficient saturation that is followed by wave breaking and foam production, there is no complete confidence and understanding of the saturation phenomenon. Our semi-empirical model is proposed for the estimation of the foam impact on the variation of the effective drag coefficient, Cd , with the reference wind speed U10 in stormy and hurricane conditions. The proposed model treats the efficient air-sea aerodynamic roughness length as a sum of two weighted aerodynamic roughness lengths for the foam-free and foam-covered conditions. On the available optical and radiometric measurements of the fractional foam coverage,αf, combined with direct wind speed measurements in hurricane conditions, which provide the minimum of the effective drag coefficient, Cd for the sea covered with foam. The present model yields Cd10 versus U10 in fair agreement with that evaluated from both open-ocean and laboratory measurements of the vertical variation of mean wind speed in the range of U10 from low to hurricane speeds. The present approach opens opportunities for drag coefficient modeling in hurricane conditions and hurricane intensity estimation by the foam-coverage value using optical and radiometric measurements.

  20. Analysis of Hurricane Irene’s Wind Field Using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred M. Klausmann

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane Irene caused widespread and significant impacts along the U.S. east coast during 27–29 August 2011. During this period, the storm moved across eastern North Carolina and then tracked northward crossing into Long Island and western New England. Impacts included severe flooding from the mid-Atlantic states into eastern New York and western New England, widespread wind damage and power outages across a large portion of southern and central New England, and a major storm surge along portions of the Long Island coast. The objective of this study was to conduct retrospective simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW model in an effort to reconstruct the storm’s surface wind field during the period of 27–29 August 2011. The goal was to evaluate how to use the WRF modeling system as a tool for reconstructing the surface wind field from historical storm events to support storm surge studies. The results suggest that, with even modest data assimilation applied to these simulations, the model was able to resolve the detailed structure of the storm, the storm track, and the spatial surface wind field pattern very well. The WRF model shows real potential for being used as a tool to analyze historical storm events to support storm surge studies.

  1. Evolution of surge levels inside of the Seine Bay : interactions between tide and surge levels during Johanna and Xynthia storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laborie, Vanessya; Sergent, Philippe

    2015-04-01

    Within the Technical Commission for the Study and the Evaluation of Maritime Submersions in the Seine Estuary (CTeeSMES), which aim is to improve the collective knowledge on physical processes related to maritime surge levels, a numerical model of the Atlantic French Coast based on TELEMAC2D was used to study the evolution of surge levels from the ocean to the harbour area of Le Havre and evaluate the interactions between tide and surge levels in the Seine Bay. The numerical model was specifically calibrated on JOHANNA and XYNTHIA storm events, which respectively occurred in March 2008 and in February 2010. To calibrate the global signal (tide + surge levels), measurements available on 18 outputs of the Atlantic coast were used to optimize the coefficient for wind influence and for bottom friction. Maritime boundary conditions were provided by the North East Atlantic Atlas (LEGOS). Winds and pressure fields were CFSR data. Once the numerical model had been calibrated both for tide and surge levels, it has been possible to draw the evolution of surge levels from the ocean to Le Havre (quai Meunier) and then to compare the signal obtained at each point of the Seine Bay with that obtained without taking into consideration tide for each event. That also allowed to evaluate the contribution of interactions between tide and surge levels inside of the Seine Bay for Xynthia and Johanna events, but also for other events in the slice [1979-2010] and considering climate change towards 2100 with IPCC5 scenarios. It appears that instantaneous interactions between tide and surge levels nearly reach 50 % of the global surge levels and can sharply influence the evolution of surge levels in the Seine Bay depending of the moment (high tide or low water) at which the storm occurs.

  2. Hurricane Sandy science plan: coastal topographic and bathymetric data to support hurricane impact assessment and response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stronko, Jakob M.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry • Impacts to coastal beaches and barriers • Impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology • Impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures • Impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife This fact sheet focuses on coastal topography and bathymetry. This fact sheet focuses on coastal topography and bathymetry.

  3. Analyzing Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Angelyn; Meyer, Stephan; Edwards, Becca

    2015-03-01

    Post-tropical Storm Sandy underwent extratropical transition shortly before making landfall in southern New Jersey October 29 2012. Data from this system was compared with data from Hurricane Ike (2008) which represents a classic hurricane with a clear eye wall and symmetry after landfall. Storm Sandy collided with a low pressure system coming in from the north as the hurricane made landfall on the US East coast. This contributed to Storm Sandy acting as a non-typical hurricane when it made landfall. Time histories of wind speed and wind direction were generated from data provided by Texas Tech's StickNet probes for both storms. The NOAA Weather and Climate program were used to generate radar loops of reflectivity during the landfall for both storms; these loops were compared with time histories for both Ike and Sandy to identify a relationship between time series data and storm-scale features identified on radar.

  4. Cooperative Hurricane Network Obs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observations from the Cooperative Hurricane Reporting Network (CHURN), a special network of stations that provided observations when tropical cyclones approached the...

  5. Hurricane Matthew overwash extents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara; Long, Joseph W.; Birchler, Justin; Range, Ginger

    2017-01-01

    The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project exists to understand and predict storm impacts to our nation's coastlines. This data defines the alongshore extent of overwash deposits attributed to coastal processes during Hurricane Matthew.

  6. Hurricane Katrina Water Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked with FEMA and state and local agencies to respond to the emergencies throughout the Gulf.

  7. Hurricane Katrina Sediment Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked with FEMA and state and local agencies to respond to the emergencies throughout the Gulf.

  8. Hurricane Katrina Soil Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked with FEMA and state and local agencies to respond to the emergencies throughout the Gulf.

  9. Hurricane Katrina Water Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  10. Hurricane Katrina Soil Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  11. Hurricane Katrina Sediment Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  12. Hurricane Excitation of Earth Eigenmodes

    OpenAIRE

    Peters, Randall D.

    2005-01-01

    A non-conventional vertical seismometer, with good low-frequency sensitivity, was used to study earth motions in Macon, Georgia USA during the time of hurricane Charley, August 2004. During its transitions between water and land, the powerful storm showed an interesting history of microseisms and also generated more than half-a-dozen surprisingly coherent oscillations, whose frequencies ranged from 0.9 to 3 mHz.

  13. The Department of Defense and Homeland Security relationship: Hurricane Katrina through Hurricane Irene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, John Michael

    2015-01-01

    This research explored federal intervention with the particular emphasis on examining how a collaborative relationship between Department of Defense (DOD) and Homeland Security (DHS) led to greater effectiveness between these two federal departments and their subordinates (United States Northern Command and Federal Emergency Management Agency, respectively) during the preparation and response phases of the disaster cycle regarding US continental-based hurricanes. Through the application of a two-phased, sequential mixed methods approach, this study determined how their relationship has led to longitudinal improvements in the years following Hurricane Katrina, focusing on hurricanes as the primary unit of analysis.

  14. 7 CFR 58.218 - Surge tanks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Surge tanks. 58.218 Section 58.218 Agriculture....218 Surge tanks. If surge tanks are used for hot milk, and temperatures of product including foam being held in the surge tank during processing, is not maintained at a minimum of 150 °F, then two...

  15. Analysis and simulation of propagule dispersal and salinity intrusion from storm surge on the movement of a marsh–mangrove ecotone in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Anderson, Gordon H.; Smith, Thomas J.

    2014-01-01

    Coastal mangrove–freshwater marsh ecotones of the Everglades represent transitions between marine salt-tolerant halophytic and freshwater salt-intolerant glycophytic communities. It is hypothesized here that a self-reinforcing feedback, termed a “vegetation switch,” between vegetation and soil salinity, helps maintain the sharp mangrove–marsh ecotone. A general theoretical implication of the switch mechanism is that the ecotone will be stable to small disturbances but vulnerable to rapid regime shifts from large disturbances, such as storm surges, which could cause large spatial displacements of the ecotone. We develop a simulation model to describe the vegetation switch mechanism. The model couples vegetation dynamics and hydrologic processes. The key factors in the model are the amount of salt-water intrusion into the freshwater wetland and the passive transport of mangrove (e.g., Rhizophora mangle) viviparous seeds or propagules. Results from the model simulations indicate that a regime shift from freshwater marsh to mangroves is sensitive to the duration of soil salinization through storm surge overwash and to the density of mangrove propagules or seedlings transported into the marsh. We parameterized our model with empirical hydrologic data collected from the period 2000–2010 at one mangrove–marsh ecotone location in southwestern Florida to forecast possible long-term effects of Hurricane Wilma (24 October 2005). The model indicated that the effects of that storm surge were too weak to trigger a regime shift at the sites we studied, 50 km south of the Hurricane Wilma eyewall, but simulations with more severe artificial disturbances were capable of causing substantial regime shifts.

  16. A probabilistic approach for assessing the vulnerability of transportation infrastructure to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, E. M.; Kirshen, P. H.; Bosma, K.; Watson, C.; Miller, S.; McArthur, K.

    2015-12-01

    There now exists a plethora of information attesting to the reality of our changing climate and its impacts on both human and natural systems. There also exists a growing literature linking climate change impacts and transportation infrastructure (highways, bridges, tunnels, railway, shipping ports, etc.) which largely agrees that the nation's transportation systems are vulnerable. To assess this vulnerability along the coast, flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge has most commonly been evaluated by simply increasing the water surface elevation and then estimating flood depth by comparing the new water surface elevation with the topographic elevations of the land surface. While this rudimentary "bathtub" approach may provide a first order identification of potential areas of vulnerability, accurate assessment requires a high resolution, physically-based hydrodynamic model that can simulate inundation due to the combined effects of sea level rise, storm surge, tides and wave action for site-specific locations. Furthermore, neither the "bathtub" approach nor other scenario-based approaches can quantify the probability of flooding due to these impacts. We developed a high resolution coupled ocean circulation-wave model (ADCIRC/SWAN) that utilizes a Monte Carlo approach for predicting the depths and associated exceedance probabilities of flooding due to both tropical (hurricanes) and extra-tropical storms under current and future climate conditions. This required the development of an entirely new database of meteorological forcing (e.g. pressure, wind speed, etc.) for historical Nor'easters in the North Atlantic basin. Flooding due to hurricanes and Nor'easters was simulated separately and then composite flood probability distributions were developed. Model results were used to assess the vulnerability of the Central Artery/Tunnel system in Boston, Massachusetts to coastal flooding now and in the future. Local and regional adaptation strategies were

  17. Disaster preparedness of dialysis patients for Hurricanes Gustav and Ike 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinpeter, Myra A

    2009-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita resulted in massive devastation of the Gulf Coast at Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas during 2005. Because of those disasters, dialysis providers, nephrologists, and dialysis patients used disaster planning activities to work to mitigate the morbidity and mortality associated with the 2005 hurricane season for future events affecting dialysis patients. As Hurricane Gustav approached, anniversary events for Hurricane Katrina were postponed because of evacuation orders for nearly the entire Louisiana Gulf Coast. As part of the hurricane preparation, dialysis units reviewed the disaster plans of patients, and patients made preparation for evacuation. Upon evacuation, many patients returned to the dialysis units that had provided services during their exile from Hurricane Katrina; other patients went to other locations as part of their evacuation plan. Patients uniformly reported positive experiences with dialysis providers in their temporary evacuation communities, provided that those communities did not experience the effects of Hurricane Gustav. With the exception of evacuees to Baton Rouge, patients continued to receive their treatments uninterrupted. Because of extensive damage in the Baton Rouge area, resulting in widespread power losses and delayed restoration of power to hospitals and other health care facilities, some patients missed one treatment. However, as a result of compliance with disaster fluid and dietary recommendations, no adverse outcomes occurred. In most instances, patients were able to return to their home dialysis unit or a nearby unit to continue dialysis treatments within 4 - 5 days of Hurricane Gustav. Hurricane Ike struck the Texas Gulf Coast near Galveston, resulting in devastation of that area similar to the devastation seen in New Orleans after Katrina. The storm surge along the Louisiana Gulf Coast resulted in flooding that temporarily closed coastal dialysis units. Patients were prepared and experienced

  18. Retention of Displaced Students after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coco, Joshua Christian

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to investigate the strategies that university leaders implemented to improve retention of displaced students in the aftermaths of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The universities that participated in this study admitted displaced students after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. This study utilized a qualitative…

  19. Protection of New York City Urban Fabric With Low-Cost Textile Storm Surge Barriers

    CERN Document Server

    Bolonkin, Alexander

    2007-01-01

    Textile storm surge barriers, sited at multiple locations, are literally extensions of the city world famous urban fabric - another manifestation of the dominance of the City over local Nature. Textile Storm Surge Barriers (TSSB) are intended to preserve the City from North Atlantic Ocean hurricanes that cause sea waves impacting the densely populated and high-value real estate, instigating catastrophic, and possibly long-term, infrastructure and monetary losses. Complicating TSSB installation macroproject planning is the presence of the Hudson and other rivers, several small tidal straits, future climate change and other factors. We conclude that TSSB installations made of homogeneous construction materials are worthwhile investigating because they may be less expensive to build, and more easily replaced following any failure, than concrete and steel storm surge barriers, which are also made of homogeneous materials. We suppose the best macroproject outcome will develop in the perfect Macro-engineering plann...

  20. Spatial Ecology of Puerto Rican Boas (Epicrates inornatus) in a Hurricane Impacted Forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph M. Wunderle Jr.; Javier E. Mercado Bernard Parresol Esteban Terranova 2

    2004-01-01

    Spatial ecology of Puerto Rican boas (Epicrates inornatus, Boidae) was studied with radiotelemetry in a subtropical wet forest recovering from a major hurricane (7–9 yr previous) when Hurricane Georges struck. Different boas were studied during three periods relative to Hurricane Georges: before only; before and after; and after only. Mean daily movement per month...

  1. How Unique was Hurricane Sandy? Sedimentary Reconstructions of Extreme Flooding from New York Harbor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon, Christine M.; Woodruff, Jonathan D.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Sullivan, Richard M.

    2014-12-01

    The magnitude of flooding in New York City by Hurricane Sandy is commonly believed to be extremely rare, with estimated return periods near or greater than 1000 years. However, the brevity of tide gauge records result in significant uncertainties when estimating the uniqueness of such an event. Here we compare resultant deposition by Hurricane Sandy to earlier storm-induced flood layers in order to extend records of flooding to the city beyond the instrumental dataset. Inversely modeled storm conditions from grain size trends show that a more compact yet more intense hurricane in 1821 CE probably resulted in a similar storm tide and a significantly larger storm surge. Our results indicate the occurrence of additional flood events like Hurricane Sandy in recent centuries, and highlight the inadequacies of the instrumental record in estimating current flood risk by such extreme events.

  2. Long-term response of Caribbean palm forests to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariel Lugo; J.L. Frangi

    2016-01-01

    We studied the response of Prestoea montana (Sierra Palm, hereafter Palm) brakes and a Palm floodplain forest to hurricanes in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Over a span of 78 years, 3 hurricanes passed over the study sites for which we have 64 years of measurements for Palm brakes and 20 years for the Palm floodplain forest. For each stand, species...

  3. Mass Media Use by College Students during Hurricane Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piotrowski, Chris

    2015-01-01

    There is a dearth of studies on how college students prepare for the threat of natural disasters. This study surveyed college students' preferences in mass media use prior to an approaching hurricane. The convenience sample (n = 76) were from a university located in the hurricane-prone area of the central Gulf of Mexico coast. Interestingly,…

  4. Experience of Hurricane Katrina and Reported Intimate Partner Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harville, Emily W.; Taylor, Catherine A.; Tesfai, Helen; Xiong, Xu; Buekens, Pierre

    2011-01-01

    Intimate partner violence (IPV) has been associated with stress, but few studies have examined the effect of natural disaster on IPV. In this study, the authors examine the relationship between experience of Hurricane Katrina and reported relationship aggression and violence in a cohort of 123 postpartum women. Hurricane experience is measured…

  5. Experience of Hurricane Katrina and Reported Intimate Partner Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harville, Emily W.; Taylor, Catherine A.; Tesfai, Helen; Xiong, Xu; Buekens, Pierre

    2011-01-01

    Intimate partner violence (IPV) has been associated with stress, but few studies have examined the effect of natural disaster on IPV. In this study, the authors examine the relationship between experience of Hurricane Katrina and reported relationship aggression and violence in a cohort of 123 postpartum women. Hurricane experience is measured…

  6. Continental United States Hurricane Strikes

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...

  7. Zika-Linked Birth Defects Surge in Colombia: CDC

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_162464.html Zika-Linked Birth Defects Surge in Colombia: CDC Study ... born with devastating birth defects linked to the Zika virus is no longer confined to Brazil, a ...

  8. Effects of 2010 Hurricane Earl amidst geologic evidence for greater overwash at Anegada, British Virgin Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwater, B. F.; Fuentes, Z.; Halley, R. B.; Ten Brink, U. S.; Tuttle, M. P.

    2014-03-01

    A post-hurricane survey of a Caribbean island affords comparisons with geologic evidence for greater overwash at the same place. This comparison, though of limited application to other places, helps calibrate coastal geology for assessment of earthquake and tsunami potential along the Antilles Subduction Zone. The surveyed island, Anegada, is 120 km south of the Puerto Rico Trench and is near the paths of hurricanes Donna (1960) and Earl (2010), which were at or near category 4 when at closest approach. The survey focused on Earl's geologic effects, related them to the surge from Hurricane Donna, and compared them further with erosional and depositional signs of southward overwash from the Atlantic Ocean that dates to 1200-1450 AD and to 1650-1800 AD. The main finding is that the geologic effects of these earlier events dwarf those of the recent hurricanes. Hurricane Earl's geologic effects at Anegada, observed mainly in 2011, were limited to wrack deposition along many of the island's shores and salt ponds, accretion of small washover (spillover) fans on the south shore, and the suspension and deposition of microbial material from interior salt ponds. Earl's most widespread deposit at Anegada, the microbial detritus, was abundantly juxtaposed with evidence for catastrophic overwash in prior centuries. The microbial detritus formed an extensive coating up to 2 cm thick that extended into breaches in beach-ridge plains of the island's north shore, onto playas that are underlain by a sand-and-shell sheet that extends as much as 1.5 km southward from the north shore, and among southward-strewn limestone boulders pendant to outcrops as much as 1 km inland. Earl's spillover fans also contrast with a sand-and-shell sheet, which was dated previously to 1650-1800, by being limited to the island's south shore and by extending inland a few tens of meters at most. These findings complement those reported in this issue by Michaela Spiske and Robert Halley (Spiske and Halley

  9. Late Holocene Hurricane Activity in the Gulf of Mexico from a Bayou Sediment Archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodysill, J. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Toomey, M.; Sullivan, R.; MacDonald, D.; Evans, R. L.; Ashton, A. D.

    2012-12-01

    Hurricanes pose a considerable threat to coastal communities along the Atlantic seaboard and in the Gulf of Mexico. The complex role of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in controlling storm frequency and intensity, and how these relationships could be affected by climate change, remains uncertain. To better predict how storms will impact coastal communities, it is vital to constrain their past behavior, in particular how storm frequency and intensity and the pattern of storm tracks have been influenced by past climate conditions. In an effort to characterize past storm behavior, our work contributes to the growing network of storm records along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts by reconstructing storm-induced deposits in the northern Gulf of Mexico during the Late Holocene. Previous work on the northern Gulf coast has shown considerable centennial-scale variability in the occurrence of intense hurricanes, much like the northern Atlantic coast and in the Caribbean Sea. The timing of active and quiet intervals during the last 1000 years amongst the Gulf Coast records appears to be anti-phased with stormy intervals along the North American east coast. The sparse spatial coverage of the existing intense hurricane reconstructions provides a limited view of the natural variability of intense hurricanes. A new, high resolution reconstruction of storms along the northern Gulf Coast would be beneficial in assembling the picture of the patterns of storminess during the Late Holocene. Our study site, Basin Bayou, is situated on the north side of Choctawhatchee Bay in northwest Florida. From 1851 to 2011, 68 storms have struck the coast within 75 miles of Basin Bayou, of which 10 were Category 3 or greater, making it a prime location to reconstruct intense hurricanes. Basin Bayou openly exchanges water with Choctawhatchee Bay through a narrow channel, which acts as a conduit for propagating storm surges, and potentially coarse-grained bay sediments, into the bayou. Our record is

  10. Hurricane Data Analysis Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana; Leptoukh, Gregory

    2011-01-01

    In order to facilitate Earth science data access, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC) has developed a web prototype, the Hurricane Data Analysis Tool (HDAT; URL: http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/HDAT), to allow users to conduct online visualization and analysis of several remote sensing and model datasets for educational activities and studies of tropical cyclones and other weather phenomena. With a web browser and few mouse clicks, users can have a full access to terabytes of data and generate 2-D or time-series plots and animation without downloading any software and data. HDAT includes data from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA Quick Scatterometer(QuikSCAT) and NECP Reanalysis, and the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N - 60 S) IR Dataset. The GES DISC archives TRMM data. The daily global rainfall product derived from the 3-hourly multi-satellite precipitation product (3B42 V6) is available in HDAT. The TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) sea surface temperature from the Remote Sensing Systems is in HDAT as well. The NASA QuikSCAT ocean surface wind and the NCEP Reanalysis provide ocean surface and atmospheric conditions, respectively. The global merged IR product, also known as, the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N -60 S) IR Dataset, is one of TRMM ancillary datasets. They are globally-merged pixel-resolution IR brightness temperature data (equivalent blackbody temperatures), merged from all available geostationary satellites (GOES-8/10, METEOSAT-7/5 & GMS). The GES DISC has collected over 10 years of the data beginning from February of 2000. This high temporal resolution (every 30 minutes) dataset not only provides additional background information to TRMM and other satellite missions, but also allows observing a wide range of meteorological phenomena from space, such as, hurricanes, typhoons, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convection system, etc. Basic functions include selection of area of

  11. Tide-surge historical assessment of extreme water levels for the St. Johns River: 1928-2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacopoulos, Peter

    2017-10-01

    An historical storm population is developed for the St. Johns River, located in northeast Florida-US east coast, via extreme value assessment of an 89-year-long record of hourly water-level data. Storm surge extrema and the corresponding (independent) storm systems are extracted from the historical record as well as the linear and nonlinear trends of mean sea level. Peaks-over-threshold analysis reveals the top 16 most-impactful (storm surge) systems in the general return-period range of 1-100 years. Hurricane Matthew (2016) broke the record with a new absolute maximum water level of 1.56 m, although the peak surge occurred during slack tide level (0.00 m). Hurricanes and tropical systems contribute to return periods of 10-100 years with water levels in the approximate range of 1.3-1.55 m. Extratropical systems and nor'easters contribute to the historical storm population (in the general return-period range of 1-10 years) and are capable of producing extreme storm surges (in the approximate range of 1.15-1.3 m) on par with those generated by hurricanes and tropical systems. The highest astronomical tide is 1.02 m, which by evaluation of the historical record can contribute as much as 94% to the total storm-tide water level. Statically, a hypothetical scenario of Hurricane Matthew's peak surge coinciding with the highest astronomical tide would yield an overall storm-tide water level of 2.58 m, corresponding to an approximate 1000-year return period by historical comparison. Sea-level trends (linear and nonlinear) impact water-level return periods and constitute additional risk hazard for coastal engineering designs.

  12. Hurricane Katrina: A Teachable Moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, Peggy

    2009-01-01

    This article presents suggestions for integrating the phenomenon of hurricanes into the teaching of high school fluid mechanics. Students come to understand core science concepts in the context of their impact upon both the environment and human populations. Suggestions for using information about hurricanes, particularly Hurricane Katrina, in a…

  13. Hurricane Katrina: A Teachable Moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, Peggy

    2009-01-01

    This article presents suggestions for integrating the phenomenon of hurricanes into the teaching of high school fluid mechanics. Students come to understand core science concepts in the context of their impact upon both the environment and human populations. Suggestions for using information about hurricanes, particularly Hurricane Katrina, in a…

  14. Initial management of hospital evacuations caused by Hurricane Rita: a systematic investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downey, Erin L; Andress, Knox; Schultz, Carl H

    2013-06-01

    Hurricanes remain a major threat to hospitals throughout the world. The authors attempted to identify the planning areas that impact hospital management of evacuations and the challenges faced when sheltering-in-place. This observational, retrospective cohort study examined acute care institutions from one hospital system impacted by Hurricane Rita in 2005. Investigators used a standardized survey instrument and interview process, previously used in the hospital evacuation context, to examine hospitals' initial internal situational awareness and subsequent decision making that resulted in evacuation due to Hurricane Rita. Participants from each hospital included representatives from senior leadership and clinical and nonclinical staff that comprised the Incident Management Team (IMT). The main measured outcomes were responses to 95 questions contained in the survey. Seven of ten eligible hospitals participated in the study. All facilities evacuated the sickest patients first. The most significant factors prompting evacuation were the issuing of mandatory evacuation orders, storm dynamics (category, projected path, storm surge), and loss of regional communications. Hospitals that sheltered-in-place experienced staff shortages, interruptions to electrical power, and loss of water supplies. Three fully-evacuated institutions experienced understaffing of 40%-60%, and four hospitals sustained depressed staffing levels for over four weeks. Five hospitals lost electricity for a mean of 4.8 days (range .5-11 days). All facilities continued to receive patients to their Emergency Departments (EDs) while conducting their own evacuation. Hospital EDs should plan for continuous patient arrival during evacuation. Emergency Operation Plans (EOPs) that anticipate challenges associated with evacuation will help to maximize initial decision making and management during a crisis situation. Hospitals that shelter-in-place face critical shortages and must provide independent patient

  15. Building and Analyzing SURGEDAT: The World's Most Comprehensive Storm Surge Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Needham, H.; Keim, B.

    2012-12-01

    SURGEDAT, the world's most comprehensive tropical storm surge database, has identified and mapped the location and height of hundreds of global storm surge events. This project originated with a study that identified more than 200 tropical surge events along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Spatial analysis of these data reveal that the central and western Gulf Coast observe more frequent and higher magnitude surges, whereas much of the eastern Gulf Coast, including the west coast of Florida, experiences less storm surge activity. Basin-wide return period analysis of these data estimate a 100-year return period of 8.20m, and a 10-year return period of 4.95m. Return period analysis of 10 sub-regions within the basin reveal that the highest surge levels occur in the Southeast Louisiana/ Mississippi zone, which includes the New Orleans metropolitan area. The 100-year surge level in this zone is estimated to be 7.67m. The Southeast Texas/ Southwest Louisiana zone, which includes the Houston metropolitan area, has the second highest surge levels, with a 100-year storm surge estimate of 6.30m. Surge levels are lower on the west coast of Florida, where the 100-year surge level is estimated between three and four meters. Expansion of this work includes mapping all high water marks for each surge event and the creation of a search-by-location web tool, which enables users to see the entire storm surge history for specific locations. In addition, the dataset has expanded internationally and now includes more than 500 surge events, as surges have now been identified in all the major ocean basins that experience tropical cyclones. International partnerships are sought to further expand this work, particularly in Australia, China, Japan, Philippines, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Mexico and various countries in Oceania and the Caribbean.; ;

  16. Who evacuates when hurricanes approach? The role of risk, information, and location.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Robert M; Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo; Subramanian, Devika

    2010-01-01

    This article offers an expanded perspective on evacuation decision making during severe weather. In particular, this work focuses on uncovering determinants of individual evacuation decisions. We draw on a survey conducted in 2005 of residents in the eight-county Houston metropolitan area after Hurricane Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005. We find that evacuation decisions are influenced by a heterogeneous set of parameters, including perceived risk from wind, influence of media and neighbors, and awareness of evacuation zone, that are often at variance with one of the primary measures of risk used by public officials to order or recommend an evacuation (i.e., storm surge). We further find that perceived risk and its influence on evacuation behavior is a local phenomenon more readily communicated by and among individuals who share the same geography, as is the case with residents living inside and outside official risk areas. Who evacuates and why is partially dependent on where one lives because perceptions of risk are not uniformly shared across the area threatened by an approaching hurricane and the same sources and content of information do not have the same effect on evacuation behavior. Hence, efforts to persuade residential populations about risk and when, where, and how to evacuate or shelter in place should originate in the neighborhood rather than emanating from blanket statements from the media or public officials. Our findings also raise important policy questions (included in the discussion section) that require further study and consideration by those responsible with organizing and implementing evacuation plans.

  17. Hypergravity induced prolactin surge in female rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megory, E.; Oyama, J.

    1985-01-01

    Acute initial exposure to hypergravity (HG) was previously found to induce prolonged diestrous in rats, which was followed by return to normal estrous cycling upon more prolonged exposure to continuous HG. Bromergocryptine was found to prevent this prolonged diestrous. In this study it is found that in female rats 20 h of 3.14 G exposure (D-1 1200 h until D-2 0800 h) can induce prolactin surge at D-2 1600 h. Shorter exposure time (8 h), or exposure during a different part of the estrous cycle (19 h: from D-1 0700 h until D-2 0200 h) could not elicit this prolactin surge. Similar exposure of male rats of HG did not alter significantly their prolactin levels. It is possible that the hypothalamus of male and female rats responds differently to stimulation by HG.

  18. Medvezhiy Glacier surge in 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Kotlyakov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents results of monitoring of the Medvezhiy Glacier state for the period from its surge of 2001 to the last pulsation of 2011. This monitoring is performed based on the photographing made from the Russian section of the International Space Station. Features, used for prediction of the glacier last movement, are pointed out. The earlier determined characteristic property of the Medvezhiy Glacier change from a phase of recovering to that of its fast movement has been substantiated. Mean period of the glacier pulsations, estimated from observations for the last century, is 13.5 years. A surge of the glacier left tributary is recognized.

  19. Sediment Quality in Near Coastal Waters of the Gulf of Mexico: Influence of Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    The results from this study represent a synoptic analysis of sediment quality in coastal waters of Lake Pontchartrain and Mississippi Sound two months after the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. Post-hurricane conditions were compared to pre-hurricane (2000-2004) conditions, for se...

  20. Post-hurricane forest damage assessment using satellite remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Wang; J.J. Qu; X. Hao; Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf

    2010-01-01

    This study developed a rapid assessment algorithm for post-hurricane forest damage estimation using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements. The performance of five commonly used vegetation indices as post-hurricane forest damage indicators was investigated through statistical analysis. The Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII) was...

  1. Two-dimensional time dependent hurricane overwash and erosion modeling at Santa Rosa Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, R.T.; Van Theil de Vries, J. S. M.; Plant, N.G.; Van Dongeren, A. R.; Roelvink, J.A.; Thompson, D.M.; Reniers, A.J.H.M.

    2010-01-01

    A 2DH numerical, model which is capable of computing nearshore circulation and morphodynamics, including dune erosion, breaching and overwash, is used to simulate overwash caused by Hurricane Ivan (2004) on a barrier island. The model is forced using parametric wave and surge time series based on field data and large-scale numerical model results. The model predicted beach face and dune erosion reasonably well as well as the development of washover fans. Furthermore, the model demonstrated considerable quantitative skill (upwards of 66% of variance explained, maximum bias - 0.21 m) in hindcasting the post-storm shape and elevation of the subaerial barrier island when a sheet flow sediment transport limiter was applied. The prediction skill ranged between 0.66 and 0.77 in a series of sensitivity tests in which several hydraulic forcing parameters were varied. The sensitivity studies showed that the variations in the incident wave height and wave period affected the entire simulated island morphology while variations in the surge level gradient between the ocean and back barrier bay affected the amount of deposition on the back barrier and in the back barrier bay. The model sensitivity to the sheet flow sediment transport limiter, which served as a proxy for unknown factors controlling the resistance to erosion, was significantly greater than the sensitivity to the hydraulic forcing parameters. If no limiter was applied the simulated morphological response of the barrier island was an order of magnitude greater than the measured morphological response.

  2. Field assessment of surge and continuous furrow irrigation methods in relation to tillage systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattar, Mohamed A.; El-Saadawy, Mohamed A.; Helmy, Mamdouh A.; Sorour, Hussien M.

    2017-04-01

    Surge flow irrigation is one of the irrigation techniques for controlling furrow irrigation. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of surge furrow irrigation on water management compared with continuous irrigation for different tillage systems. An experimental field was treated with various tillage systems (mouldboard plough, chisel plough and rotary plough) and water irrigation application methods (continuous flow, control) in which irrigation water was applied continuously, and surge flow (3-surges, 4-surges and 5-surges) in which irrigation water was applied intermittently until it reached the tail end of the furrow. The results showed that water savings obtained using the surge technique were 18.58, 11.84 and 18.93% lower water use than with continuous flow, for the mouldboard, chisel and rotary ploughs, respectively. The 3-surges treatment with the rotary plough reduced the advance time by 25.36% from that for continuous irrigation. The 4-surges treatment with the mouldboard plough had the highest water application efficiency (88.13%). The 3-surges treatment with the rotary plough had the highest distribution uniformity (85.01%). The rotary plough did not cause as much soil aeration around the root system as the other tillage systems. The field research provided information about surge flow, aimed at reducing advance times and increasing irrigation efficiency.

  3. Hurricane-induced failure of low salinity wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howes, Nick C.; FitzGerald, Duncan M.; Hughes, Zoe J.; Georgiou, Ioannis Y.; Kulp, Mark A.; Miner, Michael D.; Smith, Jane M.; Barras, John A.

    2010-01-01

    During the 2005 hurricane season, the storm surge and wave field associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita eroded 527 km2 of wetlands within the Louisiana coastal plain. Low salinity wetlands were preferentially eroded, while higher salinity wetlands remained robust and largely unchanged. Here we highlight geotechnical differences between the soil profiles of high and low salinity regimes, which are controlled by vegetation and result in differential erosion. In low salinity wetlands, a weak zone (shear strength 500–1450 Pa) was observed ∼30 cm below the marsh surface, coinciding with the base of rooting. High salinity wetlands had no such zone (shear strengths > 4500 Pa) and contained deeper rooting. Storm waves during Hurricane Katrina produced shear stresses between 425–3600 Pa, sufficient to cause widespread erosion of the low salinity wetlands. Vegetation in low salinity marshes is subject to shallower rooting and is susceptible to erosion during large magnitude storms; these conditions may be exacerbated by low inorganic sediment content and high nutrient inputs. The dramatic difference in resiliency of fresh versus more saline marshes suggests that the introduction of freshwater to marshes as part of restoration efforts may therefore weaken existing wetlands rendering them vulnerable to hurricanes. PMID:20660777

  4. A Coordinated USGS Science Response to Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, S.; Buxton, H. T.; Andersen, M.; Dean, T.; Focazio, M. J.; Haines, J.; Hainly, R. A.

    2013-12-01

    In late October 2012, Hurricane Sandy came ashore during a spring high tide on the New Jersey coastline, delivering hurricane-force winds, storm tides exceeding 19 feet, driving rain, and plummeting temperatures. Hurricane Sandy resulted in 72 direct fatalities in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, and widespread and substantial physical, environmental, ecological, social, and economic impacts estimated at near $50 billion. Before the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, the USGS provided forecasts of potential coastal change; collected oblique aerial photography of pre-storm coastal morphology; deployed storm-surge sensors, rapid-deployment streamgages, wave sensors, and barometric pressure sensors; conducted Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) aerial topographic surveys of coastal areas; and issued a landslide alert for landslide prone areas. During the storm, Tidal Telemetry Networks provided real-time water-level information along the coast. Long-term networks and rapid-deployment real-time streamgages and water-quality monitors tracked river levels and changes in water quality. Immediately after the storm, the USGS serviced real-time instrumentation, retrieved data from over 140 storm-surge sensors, and collected other essential environmental data, including more than 830 high-water marks mapping the extent and elevation of the storm surge. Post-storm lidar surveys documented storm impacts to coastal barriers informing response and recovery and providing a new baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The USGS Hazard Data Distribution System served storm-related information from many agencies on the Internet on a daily basis. Immediately following Hurricane Sandy the USGS developed a science plan, 'Meeting the Science Needs of the Nation in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy-A U.S. Geological Survey Science Plan for Support of Restoration and Recovery'. The plan will ensure continuing coordination of internal USGS activities as well as

  5. Hurricane Sandy's Impact on Coastal Sedimentation on Long Island's South Shore: Results from a 2013 Rapid Response Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, B. A.; Goff, J. A.; Flood, R. D.; Austin, J. A., Jr.; Browne, C. M.; Saustrup, S.

    2014-12-01

    To understand the impact of Hurricane Sandy on the NY coast, we conducted subsurface and multi-beam analyses, ground-truthed by grab samples, in 3 areas: the western end of Fire Island (FIW), eastern Fire Island (FIE) where a new inlet formed during the storm, and Long Beach (LB). Grab samples yielded sands and muds, a surprise given the shallow (10-25m) water depths. Muds rested on top of sands and were removed for additional analyses. Since percent mud could not be determined absolutely, sediments were washed through a 63 mm sieve, RoTapped for 10 minutes at ¼ Φ, and weight percent calculated for the coarse fraction. At FIW and FIE, fine sands dominate the shallowest depths studied, consistent with previous studies. At FIE, the sedimentary wedge extends to ~15m, with finest sands (peak 3-3.5 Φ) in shallowest waters surveyed (~10m). Slightly coarser (2.5Φ) sediments plus relict gravels are present in swales where the wedge shoals. This supports mapping results indicating sand ridges migrated to the SW. Medium to fine sand is present at the deepest extent of the wedge; the grain size distribution matches a sample taken in the swash zone on the eastern flank of the new breach. Sediments may have been transported shoreward and then reworked post-Sandy. Samples seaward of the new breach were capped by a mud layer, which in turn had a layer of fine sand resting on it, evidence of a nascent ebb tidal deposit. At FIW, sediments in the shallow NE swale are finer (3.5Φ) and better sorted. As the region is underlain by relict sediments, these fine sands may be relicts exposed by storm-driven bedform migration. Deeper water (~22m w.d.) samples at FIW are coarser and contain shell hash. Sand on the lee side of the sand ridge, which CHIRP profiles show did not migrate significantly and accumulated sands, are medium (1.5 Φ), and match the grain sizes found on Fire Island beach. Muds contain heavy metals in concentrations consistent with transport from adjacent estuaries.

  6. Dune erosion during storm surges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M.

    2009-01-01

    Large parts of The Netherlands are protected from flooding by a narrow strip of sandy beaches and dunes. The aim of this thesis is to extend the existing knowledge of dune erosion during storm surges as it occurs along the Dutch coast. The thesis discusses: • A large scale dune erosion experiment to

  7. National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards--Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Thompson, David M.; Sopkin, Kristin L.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Sallenger, Asbury H.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy beaches provide a natural barrier between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During a hurricane, these changes can be large and sometimes catastrophic. High waves and storm surge act together to erode beaches and inundate low-lying lands, putting inland communities at risk. A decade of USGS research on storm-driven coastal change hazards has provided the data and modeling capabilities to identify areas of our coastline that are likely to experience extreme and potentially hazardous erosion during a hurricane. This report defines hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards for sandy beaches along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastline. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respond to the direct landfall of category 1-5 hurricanes. Hurricane-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change: collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation. As new beach morphology observations and storm predictions become available, this analysis will be updated to describe how coastal vulnerability to storms will vary in the future.

  8. Surges in low voltage distribution networks: some of conducted studies; Surtos em redes de baixa tensao: alguns estudos realizados

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-04-01

    This article presents an experience conducted by the Brazilian CELESC - Centrais Electricas de Santa Catarina, by installing two low voltage Si C lightning rods, one near of a batch of distribution transformers, and the other in the protection and measurement cabinet. That installation considered the high number of damages in transformers and meters in a region where 118 days of storm are detected. For the study, two regions presented similar climate characteristics and high number of damaged equipment. The low voltage lightning rods were installed only in one of the regions.

  9. Modeling and control of surge and rotating stall in compressors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gravdahl, Jan Tommy

    1998-12-31

    Compressors are used in power generation and a variety of other applications. This thesis contains new results in the field of modeling and control of rotating stall and surge in compressors. A close coupled valve is included in the Moore-Greitzer compression system model and controllers for both surge and rotating stall is derived using backstepping. Disturbances, constant and time varying, are then taken into account, and non-linear controllers are derived. Stability results are given. Then, passivity is used to derive a simple surge control law for the closed coupled valve. This propositional control law is shown to stabilize the system even in the presence of time varying disturbances in mass flow and pressure. A novel model for an axial compression system with non-constant compressor speed is derived by extending the Moore-Greitzer model. Rotating stall and surge is studied in connection with acceleration of the compressor. Finally, a model for a centrifugal compression system with time varying compressor speed is derived. The variable speed compressor characteristic is derived based on energy losses in the compressor components. Active control of surge in connection with varying speed is studied. Semi-global exponential stability of the compression system with both surge and speed control is proven. 103 refs., 38 figs., 5 tabs.

  10. Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning; Kopp, Robert E.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

    2016-10-01

    Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ˜3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ˜4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ˜3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.

  11. The influence of climate during and after a glacial surge - A comparison of the last two surges of Fridtjovbreen, Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lønne, Ida

    2014-02-01

    Glacial surges are periods of fast flow, often limited in space and time, and driven by internal conditions which are not fully explained. The quantity and variety of documented case-studies and settings demonstrate that the critical variables are difficult to isolate. In an alternative approach, two surges from the same basin were compared at Fridtjovhamna; one of the few known sites where this is possible. Fridtjovbreen is a polythermal glacier that has been through two recent surges: the last event (1991-2002) occurred during an unusually warm period in the high Arctic, whereas the previous surge culminated in 1861, around the Little Ice Age when many Svalbard-glaciers had their maximum Holocene extent. Based on a multi-disciplinary study, processes and landforms from the two episodes were compared with respect to ice-front movement rates, formation and decay of ice-cored moraines and glacial meltwater drainage patterns. The study demonstrates that moraines and meltwater traces from the oldest surge, locally well preserved, provide excellent opportunities for reconstructing the behavior of the ice-mass. The last surge, however, took place during a period with ablation rates never seen at this latitude, and 10 years after the maximum extent, the deglaciated areas onshore hardly show traces from the event.

  12. Shelf sediment transport during hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kehui; Mickey, Rangley C.; Chen, Qin; Harris, Courtney K.; Hetland, Robert D.; Hu, Kelin; Wang, Jiaze

    2016-05-01

    Hurricanes can greatly modify the sedimentary record, but our coastal scientific community has rather limited capability to predict hurricane-induced sediment deposition. A three-dimensional sediment transport model was developed in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to study seabed erosion and deposition on the Louisiana shelf in response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the year 2005. Sensitivity tests were performed on both erosional and depositional processes for a wide range of erosional rates and settling velocities, and uncertainty analysis was done on critical shear stresses using the polynomial chaos approximation method. A total of 22 model runs were performed in sensitivity and uncertainty tests. Estimated maximum erosional depths were sensitive to the inputs, but horizontal erosional patterns seemed to be controlled mainly by hurricane tracks, wave-current combined shear stresses, seabed grain sizes, and shelf bathymetry. During the passage of two hurricanes, local resuspension and deposition dominated the sediment transport mechanisms. Hurricane Katrina followed a shelf-perpendicular track before making landfall and its energy dissipated rapidly within about 48 h along the eastern Louisiana coast. In contrast, Hurricane Rita followed a more shelf-oblique track and disturbed the seabed extensively during its 84-h passage from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Louisiana-Texas border. Conditions to either side of Hurricane Rita's storm track differed substantially, with the region to the east having stronger winds, taller waves and thus deeper erosions. This study indicated that major hurricanes can disturb the shelf at centimeter to meter levels. Each of these two hurricanes suspended seabed sediment mass that far exceeded the annual sediment inputs from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers, but the net transport from shelves to estuaries is yet to be determined. Future studies should focus on the modeling of sediment exchange between

  13. The perfect storm of information: combining traditional and non-traditional data sources for public health situational awareness during hurricane response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Kelly J; Olsen, Jennifer M; Harris, Sara; Mekaru, Sumiko; Livinski, Alicia A; Brownstein, John S

    2013-12-16

    Hurricane Isaac made landfall in southeastern Louisiana in late August 2012, resulting in extensive storm surge and inland flooding. As the lead federal agency responsible for medical and public health response and recovery coordination, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) must have situational awareness to prepare for and address state and local requests for assistance following hurricanes. Both traditional and non-traditional data have been used to improve situational awareness in fields like disease surveillance and seismology. This study investigated whether non-traditional data (i.e., tweets and news reports) fill a void in traditional data reporting during hurricane response, as well as whether non-traditional data improve the timeliness for reporting identified HHS Essential Elements of Information (EEI). HHS EEIs provided the information collection guidance, and when the information indicated there was a potential public health threat, an event was identified and categorized within the larger scope of overall Hurricane Issac situational awareness. Tweets, news reports, press releases, and federal situation reports during Hurricane Isaac response were analyzed for information about EEIs. Data that pertained to the same EEI were linked together and given a unique event identification number to enable more detailed analysis of source content. Reports of sixteen unique events were examined for types of data sources reporting on the event and timeliness of the reports. Of these sixteen unique events identified, six were reported by only a single data source, four were reported by two data sources, four were reported by three data sources, and two were reported by four or more data sources. For five of the events where news tweets were one of multiple sources of information about an event, the tweet occurred prior to the news report, press release, local government\\emergency management tweet, and federal situation report. In all circumstances where

  14. Comments on metal oxide surge arresters surges energy absorption capacity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez, M.L.B. [Escola Federal de Engenharia de Itajuba, Minas Gerais (Brazil); Zanetta, L.C. Jr. [E. Politecnica Univ. de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents an approach to determine the energy absorption capacity of metal oxide surge arrester resistors. The proposed approach deals with the discharge current peak versus discharge current time relation. A testing method and a statistical evaluation are proposed. After determining the discharge current withstanding limit of the tested metal oxide resistors, the prospective energy absorption capacity limit is computed. Finally, comments on the obtained results are presented.

  15. Recon Study Hurricane Agnes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1972-10-01

    River Foresters & NYSDEC Timber loss, vegetation loss Taughannock St. Pk., Chemung River NYSDEC Recreational impact and Schuyler Co. clearing of debris...and minor recrea- tional damage . Roanoke, Roanoke Co. Roanoke River Forest Supervisor Extreme erosion of roads Jefferson National and sedimentation

  16. Rapid assessment tool for tropical cyclone waves and storm surge hazards in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, Christian M.; Rosengaus, Michel; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Camacho-Magaña, Victor

    2017-04-01

    Mexico is under the constant threat of tropical cyclones generated in the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific oceans. While the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in both basins and providing watch and warning areas information for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, they are not responsible to issue waves and storm surge hazards. This work presents a quick assessment tool for waves and storm surge hazards developed under conditions that are common to developing countries: tight budget and time constraints, as well as limited numerical modeling capabilities. The system is based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

  17. A coral-rubble ridge as evidence for hurricane overwash, Anegada (British Virgin Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiske, M.; Halley, R. B.

    2014-01-01

    A coral-rubble ridge fringes part of the north shore of Anegada, a low-lying island in the northern Caribbean. Both historical reports and the geological record underline its vulnerability to tsunami and hurricanes. In this study we document the sedimentary characteristics of a coral-rubble ridge, which extends discontinuously along 1.5-1.8 km of chiefly north-facing shores at Soldier Wash. The ridge is less distinctive and appears only in patches along the west-facing shoreline at Windless Bight, where the wave regime is calmer. It is located ca. 8 m from the fair-weather shore, has a maximum width of 15 m and a maximum thickness of 0.8 m. The lower seaward-facing slope of the ridge is relatively flat, probably due to successive reworking, whereas the upper seaward slope is steep and partly displays avalanching faces. The landward flank is gently sloping and terminates abruptly. The ridge is mainly composed of well-rounded, encrusted and bored coral rubble (average diameter of 16 cm) that has been reworked in the shallow marine environment prior to transport. Only a few pieces of angular beach rock and karstified Pleistocene limestone are incorporated. The components build a clast-supported framework. No sand is present in the interstices. Imbrication of flat clasts indicates a deposition during landward bed load transport. The ridge morphology, composition and related hydrodynamic conditions during its emplacement are typical for coral-rubble ridges deposited by hurricane-induced storm surges. In comparison, nearby evidence for tsunami inundation is very different because the tsunami-transported coral boulders on Anegada are much bigger (2 m) than the biggest components in the ridge, they are deposited much farther inland (up to 1.5 km), and the corals seem to have been freshly broken out of the reef by the tsunami. The age of the ridge is difficult to estimate. The dark grey surface of the ridge is caused by bioweathering by endolithic organisms that takes tens

  18. Surge-type glaciers in the Tien Shan (Central Asia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Kriti; Bolch, Tobias

    2016-04-01

    Surge-type glaciers in High Mountain Asia are mostly observed in Karakoram and Pamir. However, few surge-type glaciers also exist in the Tien Shan, but have not comprehensively studied in detail in the recent literature. We identified surge-type glaciers in the Tien Shan either from available literature or by manual interpretation using available satellite images (such as Corona, Hexagon, Landsat, SPOT, IRS) for the period 1960 to 2014. We identified 39 possible surge-type glaciers, showing typical characteristics like looped moraines. Twenty-two of them rapidly advanced during different periods or a surge was clearly described in the literature. For the remaining possible surge-type glaciers either the advance, in terms of time and length, were not mentioned in detail in the literature, or the glaciers have remained either stable or retreated during the entire period of our study. Most of the surge-type glaciers cluster in the Inner Tien Shan (especially in the Ak-Shiirak rage) and the Central Tien Shan, are in size and are facing North, West or North West. Pronounced surge events were observed for North Inylchek and Samoilowitsch glaciers, both of which are located in the Central Tien Shan. Samoilowitsch Glacier retreated by more than 3 km between 1960 (length ~8.9 km) and 1992 (~5.8 km), advanced by almost 3 km until 2006 and slightly retreated thereafter. The most pronounced advance occurred between 2000 and 2002. DEM differencing (based on SRTM3 data and stereo Hexagon and Cartosat-1 data) revealed a significant thickening in the middle reaches (reservoir area) of the glacier between 1973 and 2000 while the surface significantly lowered in the middle and upper parts of the glacier between 2000 and 2006. Hence, the ice mass was transferred to the lower reaches (receiving area) and caused the advance with a maximum thickening of more than 80 m. The ~30 km long North Inylchek Glacier retreated since 1943 and showed a very rapid advance of ~3.5 km especially in

  19. The effects of hurricanes on birds, with special reference to Caribbean islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, J.W.; Wunderle, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    Cyclonic storms, variously called typhoons, cyclones, or hurricanes (henceforth, hurricanes), are common in many parts of the world, where their frequent occurrence can have both direct and indirect effects on bird populations. Direct effects of hurricanes include mortality from exposure to hurricane winds, rains, and storm surges, and geographic displacement of individuals by storm winds. Indirect effects become apparent in the storm's aftermath and include loss of food supplies or foraging substrates; loss of nests and nest or roost sites; increased vulnerability to predation; microclimate changes; and increased conflict with humans. The short-term response of bird populations to hurricane damage, before changes in plant succession, includes shifts in diet, foraging sites or habitats, and reproductive changes. Bird populations may show long-term responses to changes in plant succession as second-growth vegetation increases in storm-damaged old-growth forests. The greatest stress of a hurricane to most upland terrestrial bird populations occurs after its passage rather than during its impact. The most important effect of a hurricane is the destruction of vegetation, which secondarily affects wildlife in the storm's aftermath. The most vulnerable terrestrial wildlife populations have a diet of nectar, fruit, or seeds; nest, roost, or forage on large old trees; require a closed forest canopy; have special microclimate requirements and/or live in a habitat in which vegetation has a slow recovery rate. Small populations with these traits are at greatest risk to hurricane-induced extinction, particularly if they exist in small isolated habitat fragments. Recovery of avian populations from hurricane effects is partially dependent on the extent and degree of vegetation damage as well as its rate of recovery. Also, the reproductive rate of the remnant local population and recruitment from undisturbed habitat patches influence the rate at which wildlife populations recover

  20. Medvezhiy Glacier surge in 2011

    OpenAIRE

    V. M. Kotlyakov; L. V. Desinov

    2012-01-01

    The paper presents results of monitoring of the Medvezhiy Glacier state for the period from its surge of 2001 to the last pulsation of 2011. This monitoring is performed based on the photographing made from the Russian section of the International Space Station. Features, used for prediction of the glacier last movement, are pointed out. The earlier determined characteristic property of the Medvezhiy Glacier change from a phase of recovering to that of its fast movement has been substantiated...

  1. Hurricane Rita Poster (September 22, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Rita poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Rita as a category-4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on September 22, 2005. Poster size is...

  2. Hurricane Katrina Poster (August 28, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Katrina poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-18 shows a very large Hurricane Katrina as a category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on August 28, 2005....

  3. Application of a Coupled Vegetation Competition and Groundwater Simulation Model to Study Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges on Coastal Vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Yean Teh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.

  4. Application of a coupled vegetation competition and groundwater simulation model to study effects of sea level rise and storm surges on coastal vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Su Yean; Turtora, Michael; DeAngelis, Don; Jiang Jiang,; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Smith, Thomas; Koh, Hock Lye

    2015-01-01

    Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR) and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM) is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA) to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.

  5. Documentation and hydrologic analysis of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, October 29–30, 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suro, Thomas P.; Deetz, Anna; Hearn, Paul

    2016-11-17

    In 2012, a late season tropical depression developed into a tropical storm and later a hurricane. The hurricane, named “Hurricane Sandy,” gained strength to a Category 3 storm on October 25, 2012, and underwent several transitions on its approach to the mid-Atlantic region of the eastern coast of the United States. By October 28, 2012, Hurricane Sandy had strengthened into the largest hurricane ever recorded in the North Atlantic and was tracking parallel to the east coast of United States, heading toward New Jersey. On October 29, 2012, the storm turned west-northwest and made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. The high winds and wind-driven storm surge caused massive damage along the entire coastline of New Jersey. Millions of people were left without power or communication networks. Many homes were completely destroyed. Sand dunes were eroded, and the barrier island at Mantoloking was breached, connecting the ocean with Barnegat Bay.Several days before the storm made landfall in New Jersey, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) made a decision to deploy a temporary network of storm-tide sensors and barometric pressure sensors from Virginia to Maine to supplement the existing USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent tide monitoring stations. After the storm made landfall, the USGS conducted a sensor data recovery and high-water-mark collection campaign in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).Peak storm-tide elevations documented at USGS tide gages, tidal crest-stage gages, temporary storm sensor locations, and high-water-mark sites indicate the area from southern Monmouth County, N.J., north through Raritan Bay, N.J., had the highest peak storm-tide elevations during this storm. The USGS tide gages at Raritan River at South Amboy and Raritan Bay at Keansburg, part of the New Jersey Tide Telemetry System, each recorded peak storm-tide elevations of greater than 13 feet (ft)—more than 5 ft

  6. Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

    2012-04-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of

  7. The worst moment of superposed surge wave in upstream series double surge tanks of hydropower station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Y.; Yang, J. D.; Guo, W. C.; Chen, J. P.

    2016-11-01

    It is a consensus to consider the superposed working conditions when calculating the surge wave in surge tank of hydropower station with long diversion tunnel. For the hydropower station with single surge tank, the method of determining the worst superposed moment is mature. However, for the hydropower station with upstream series double surge tanks, research in this field is still blank. Based on an engineering project, this paper investigated the worst moments and the control superposed working conditions about the maximum surge level and the minimum surge level of upstream series double surge tanks using numerical simulation. In addition, the incidence relations between the worst moment of superposed surge wave and the different areal array and distance between the two surge tanks are also carried out. The results showed that: With the decrease of the distance between auxiliary surge tank and upstream reservoir, the maximum values of the highest surge levels in the two surge tanks always reach close to but a little earlier than the bigger one time when the inflowing discharges of the two surge tanks reach the maximum. It is similar to the minimum values of lowest surge levels in the two surge tanks which also reach close to but a little later than the bigger one time when the outflowing discharges of the two surges reach the maximum. Moreover, the closer the area of auxiliary surge tank to the area of main surge tank is, the closer the worst moment to the bigger one time when inflow or outflow of the two surges reach the maximum will become.

  8. Assessment of Spatial Distribution and Submerged Scope for Storm Surge in the Pearl River Delta Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Kuo; LI Guo-sheng

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the spatial distribution and submerged scope for storm surge in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region.Based on the data of storm surges in the PRD region in the past 30 years, the return periods of 12 tide-gauge stations for storm surges were calculated separately with the methods of Gumbel and Pearson-iii.The data of another six tide-gauge stations in Guangdong Coast was quoted to depict the overall features of storm surges in Guangdong.Using least-square method, the spatial distribution models of storm surges in different retum periods were established to reveal the distribution rule of the set-up values of storm surges.The spatial distribution curves of storm surges in different retum periods in the PRD Region were drawn up based on the models and the terrain of Guangdong Coast.According to the curves, the extreme set-up values of storm surges in 1 000,100, 10 a return periods were determined on each spot of Guangdong Coast.Applying the spatial analysis technology of ArcGIS, with the topography data of the PRD Region, the submerged scopes of flood caused by storm surge in 1 000, 100, 10 a return periods were drawn up.The loss caused by storm surges was estimated.Results showed that the storm surges and the topography of PRD region jointly led to the serious flood in the PRD region.This assessment would be useful for the planning and design department to make decision and provide government scientific basis for storm surge prediction, coastal engineering designing and the prevention of storm surge disaster.

  9. Surges of outlet glaciers from the Drangajökull ice cap, northwest Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brynjólfsson, Skafti; Schomacker, Anders; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Ingólfsson, Ólafur

    2016-09-01

    Surface elevation and volume changes of the Drangajökull surge-type glaciers, Reykjarfjarðarjökull and Leirufjarðarjökull, were studied by comparing digital elevation models that pre-date and post-date their most recent surges. Annual glacier-frontal measurements were used to estimate average ice velocities during the last surge of the glaciers. The observations show a distinct ice discharge, most of which was from the upper reservoir areas, down to the receiving areas during the surges. The surface draw-down in the reservoir areas was usually 10-30 m during the surges, while the thickening of the receiving areas was significantly more variable, on the order of 10-120 m. Despite a negative geodetic net mass balance derived from the digital elevation models, the reservoir areas have been gaining mass since the surge terminations. This surface thickening along with considerable ablation of the receiving areas will most likely return the glacier surface profiles to the pre-surge stage. Our results indicate that (a) greatest surface thinning in the upper reservoir areas of Drangajökull rather than proximal to the equilibrium line during Vatnajökull surges and (b) development of Drangajökull surges that resembles Svalbard surge-type glaciers rather than Vatnajökull surge-type glaciers. The contrasting surge characteristics could be explained by differences in glacier geometry, topography and substratum of the Drangajökull and Vatnajökull surge-type glaciers.

  10. Extracting hurricane eye morphology from spaceborne SAR images using morphological analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Isabella K.; Shamsoddini, Ali; Li, Xiaofeng; Trinder, John C.; Li, Zeyu

    2016-07-01

    Hurricanes are among the most destructive global natural disasters. Thus recognizing and extracting their morphology is important for understanding their dynamics. Conventional optical sensors, due to cloud cover associated with hurricanes, cannot reveal the intense air-sea interaction occurring at the sea surface. In contrast, the unique capabilities of spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data for cloud penetration, and its backscattering signal characteristics enable the extraction of the sea surface roughness. Therefore, SAR images enable the measurement of the size and shape of hurricane eyes, which reveal their evolution and strength. In this study, using six SAR hurricane images, we have developed a mathematical morphology method for automatically extracting the hurricane eyes from C-band SAR data. Skeleton pruning based on discrete skeleton evolution (DSE) was used to ensure global and local preservation of the hurricane eye shape. This distance weighted algorithm applied in a hierarchical structure for extraction of the edges of the hurricane eyes, can effectively avoid segmentation errors by reducing redundant skeletons attributed to speckle noise along the edges of the hurricane eye. As a consequence, the skeleton pruning has been accomplished without deficiencies in the key hurricane eye skeletons. A morphology-based analyses of the subsequent reconstructions of the hurricane eyes shows a high degree of agreement with the hurricane eye areas derived from reference data based on NOAA manual work.

  11. Cognitive and Psychosocial Consequences of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Among Middle-Aged, Older, and Oldest-Old Adults in the Louisiana Healthy Aging Study (LHAS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherry, Katie E; Su, L Joseph; Welsh, David A; Galea, Sandro; Jazwinski, S Michal; Silva, Jennifer L; Erwin, Marla J

    2010-10-01

    This study examined the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on cognitive and psychosocial functioning among middle-aged (45-64 years), older (65-89 years) and oldest-old adults (90 years and over) in the Louisiana Healthy Aging Study (LHAS). Analyses of pre- and post-disaster cognitive data showed storm-related decrements in working memory for the middle-aged and older adults, but not for the oldest-old adults. Regression analyses confirmed that measures of social engagement and storm-related disruption significantly predicted pre- to post-disaster differences in short-term and working memory performance for the middle-aged and older adults only. These results are consistent with a burden perspective on post-disaster psychological reactions. Implications for current views of disaster reactions are discussed.

  12. Study of accelerated aging of polymeric surge arresters and insulators used in high voltage lines; Estudo sobre o envelhecimento acelerado de para-raios e isoladores polimericos usados em linhas de alta tensao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira Junior, Joao B. de; Castro Junior, Joao B. de; Silva, Maria Elisa S.R. e; Freitas, Roberto F.S.; Sousa, Ricardo G. de [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Quimica. Lab. Ciencia e Tecnologia de Polimeros; Souza, Breno P.G. de [CEMIG Distribuicao S.A., Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)], e-mail: sousarg@ufmg.br

    2011-07-01

    The use of polymeric materials in the electrical system has dramatically increased in recent years, in quantity as well as in quality. However, the use of these materials has been very empirical, being necessary a more directed and well based study towards their application in energy sector, especially concerning their early deterioration. In this study, the behavior of some surge arresters and insulators, used in power lines, after suffering aging artificial weathering chamber, was investigated. The absorption spectra in the infrared (FTIR) was used as analytical technique for study of aging. Of the five samples tested, only one showed an oxidation process after 1500 hours of artificial weathering. (author)

  13. Evaluation of Physically-based Model’s Predictive Skill for Hurricane-triggered Landslides: Case Study in North Carolina and Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Z.; Hong, Y.; Fukuoka, H.; Sassa, K.

    2009-12-01

    The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically-based, slope-stability models that simulate the dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrain. In the first study we quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal predictability of a Matlab version of TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis) in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Macon County, North Carolina where Hurricane Ivan triggered widespread landslides in September, 2004. A high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (6-meter LiDAR), USGS STATSGO soil database, and NOAA/NWS combined radar and gauge precipitation are used as inputs to the model. A local landslide inventory database from the North Carolina Department of Transportation is used to evaluate the model’s predictive skill for the landslide locations and timing over a 30-hour period of Hurricane Ivan’s passage. This study shows that TRIGRS demonstrates acceptable skill for landslide occurrences within a 120-meter radius. Real-time predictions with this model offer the potential to serve as a landslide warning system in areas where accurate rainfall forecasts and detailed field data are available. In the second study, a prototype early warning system has been developed to predict typhoon-induced shallow landslides over Java Island, Indonesia. The system utilizes a newly developed physically-based model that accounts for the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex catchments. geomorphological data are primarily based on a 30-meter ASTER DEM and 1-km soil maps, where precipitation forcing comes from satellite-based TRMM nowcasts and Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) forecasts. Model performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory, and it shows potential for predicting future typhoon-triggered landslides.

  14. Geologic record of Hurricane impacts on the New Jersey coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikitina, Daria; Horton, Benjamin; Khan, Nicole; Clear, Jennifer; Shaw, Timothy; Enache, Mihaela; Frizzera, Dorina; Procopio, Nick; Potapova, Marina

    2016-04-01

    Hurricanes along the US Atlantic coast have caused significant damage and loss of human life over the last century. Recent studies suggest that intense-hurricane activity is closely related to changes of sea surface temperatures and therefore the risk of hurricane strikes may increase in the future. A clear understanding of the role of recent warming on tropical cyclone activity is limited by the shortness of the instrumental record. However, the sediment preserved beneath coastal wetlands is an archive of when hurricanes impacted the coast. We present two complimenting approaches that help to extend pre-historic record and assess frequency and intensity of hurricane landfalls along the New Jersey cost; dating overwash deposits and hurricane-induced salt-marsh erosion documented at multiple sites. The stratigraphic investigation of estuarine salt marshes in the southern New Jersey documented seven distinctive erosion events that correlate among different sites. Radiocarbon dates suggest the prehistoric events occurred in AD 558-673, AD 429-966, AD 558-673, Ad 1278-1438, AD 1526-1558 or AD 1630-1643 (Nikitina et al., 2014). Younger sequences correspond with historical land-falling hurricanes in AD 1903 and AD 1821 or AD 1788. Four events correlate well with barrier overwash deposits documented along the New Jersey coast (Donnelley et al., 2001 and 2004). The stratigraphic sequence of salt High resolution sedimentary-based reconstructions of past intense-hurricane landfalls indicate that significant variability in the frequency of intense hurricanes occurred over the last 2000 years.

  15. Atlantic Hurricane Activity: 1851-1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsea, C. W.

    2001-12-01

    This presentation reports on the second year's work of a three year project to re-analyze the North Atlantic hurricane database (or HURDAT). The original database of six-hourly positions and intensities were put together in the 1960s in support of the Apollo space program to help provide statistical track forecast guidance. In the intervening years, this database - which is now freely and easily accessible on the Internet from the National Hurricane Center's (NHC's) Webpage - has been utilized for a wide variety of uses: climatic change studies, seasonal forecasting, risk assessment for county emergency managers, analysis of potential losses for insurance and business interests, intensity forecasting techniques and verification of official and various model predictions of track and intensity. Unfortunately, HURDAT was not designed with all of these uses in mind when it was first put together and not all of them may be appropriate given its original motivation. One problem with HURDAT is that there are numerous systematic as sell as some random errors in the database which need correction. Additionally, analysis techniques have changed over the years at NHC as our understanding of tropical cyclones has developed, leading to biases in the historical database that have not been addressed. Another difficulty in applying the hurricane database to studies concerned with landfalling events is the lack exact location, time and intensity at hurricane landfall. Finally, recent efforts into uncovering undocumented historical hurricanes in the late 1800s and early 1900s led by Jose Fernandez-Partagas have greatly increased our knowledge of these past events, which are not yet incorporated into the HURDAT database. Because of all of these issues, a re-analysis of the Atlantic hurricane database is being attempted that will be completed in three years. As part of the re-analyses, three files will be made available: {* } The revised Atlantic HURDAT (with six hourly intensities

  16. National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards—Gulf of Mexico update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Birchler, Justin; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Overbeck, Jacquelyn R.

    2016-01-01

    These data sets contain information on the probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) for each 1-km section of the Gulf of Mexico coast for category 1-5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respond to the direct landfall of category 1-5 hurricanes. Hurricane-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change: collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation. Data on dune morphology (dune crest and toe elevation) and hydrodynamics (storm surge, wave setup and runup) are also included in this data set. As new beach morphology observations and storm predictions become available, this analysis will be updated to describe how coastal vulnerability to storms will vary in the future. The data presented here include the dune morphology observations, as derived from lidar surveys. For further information regarding data collection and/or processing methods refer to USGS Open-File Report 2012–1084 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1084/).

  17. Localized Modeling of Storm Surge Effects on Civil Infrastructure using ADCIRC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, J. S.; Baugh, J.

    2010-12-01

    The increase in water levels in coastal areas due to hurricanes, or storm surge, has a large impact on coastal communities. This is primarily in the form of flooding and the associated loss of use of, and damages to, civil infrastructure such as roads and bridges. In an effort to better prepare coastal communities for hurricanes, highly sophisticated models can be used to simulate the effectiveness of protective civil infrastructure during both historical and hypothetical hurricane events. To find scenarios that can be considered optimized for a given set of constraints and objectives, the different decisions in question must first be modeled for a suite of hurricane events and their results represented quantitatively. Modeling of storm surge is often done on a large spatial scale. Simulation domains often cover the length of the eastern coast of the United States and Canada, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. This is made necessary by the fact that these simulations are driven by wind fields that demand such a scale. Our goal is to limit our simulation space to a smaller geographical region of interest without sacrificing the quality of the model. This is done by imposing initial and boundary conditions obtained from a single large scale run to the smaller domain. This approach allows us to evaluate various local topographical changes under the stress of different hurricane events, e.g. improvements in design, layout and arrangement of levee structures as well as potential failures of those and other landforms, and to make this evaluation with a significantly reduced computational load. This introduced efficiency of simulating different topographical decisions enables decision-support systems for engineering design and resilience that are informed by the underlying physics of storm surge and wave loadings. ADCIRC is a parallel code written in Fortran that uses the Boussinesq approximations to solve the equations of motion for fluids, accounting for the

  18. Surge protective device response to steep front transient in low voltage circuit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marcuz, J.; Binczak, S.; Bilbault, J.M. [Universite de Bourgogne, Dijon (France)], Emails: jerome.marcuz@ laposte.net, stbinc@u-bourgogne.fr, bilbault@u-bourgogne.fr; Girard, F. [ADEE Electronic, Pont de Pany (France)

    2007-07-01

    Surge propagation on cables of electrical or data lines leads to a major protection problem as the number of equipment based on solid-state circuits or microprocessors increases. Sub-microsecond components of real surge waveform has to be taken into account for a proper protection even in the case of surges caused by indirect lightning effects. The response of a model of transient voltage suppressor diode based surge protection device (SPD) to fast front transient is analytically studied, then compared to simulations, including the lines connected to the SPD and to the protected equipment. (author)

  19. How Hurricanes Get Their Names

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张梅荐

    2000-01-01

    The first people who gave names to hurricanes were those who knew them best the people of Puerto Rico. The small island of Puerto Rico is in the West Indies, off the coast of Florida. This is where all the hurricanes begin that strike the east coast of the United States.

  20. Surge-type glaciers: controls, processes and distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Sevestre, Heïdi

    2015-01-01

    Glacier surging is an internally triggered instability. Surge-type glaciers periodically alternate between long periods of slow flow (the quiescent phase) and short periods of fast flow (the surge phase). Surging yields down-glacier transport of mass and often results in large and sudden glacier advances.The surging phenomenon has always challenged the notion of normality in glacier flow dynamics. The mechanisms of surging remain poorly understood. Observation of different surge behaviors acr...

  1. Vulnerability assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Li

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Being bordered by the South China Sea and with long coastline, the coastal zone of Guangdong Province is often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of a few regions in China which is seriously threatened by storm surges. This article systematically analyzes the vulnerability factors of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong (from Yangjing to Shanwei. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index, and disaster-bearing capability index. Then storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general mode about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved, and the vulnerability evolution model of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong is constructed. Using ArcGIS, the vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the study region is drawn. Results show that there is the highest degree of storm surge vulnerability in Zhuhai, Panyu, and Taishan; second in Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huiyang, and Haifeng; third in Jiangmen, Shanwei, Yangjiang, and Yangdong; fourth in Baoan, Kaiping, and Enping; and lowest in Guangzhou, Shunde, Shenzhen, and Longgang. This study on the risk of storm surges in these coastal cities can guide the land use of coastal cities in the future, and provide scientific advice for the government to prevent and mitigate the storm surge disasters. It has important theoretical and practical significance.

  2. Cold surge: a sudden and spatially varying threat to health?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tse-Chuan; Wu, Pei-Chih; Chen, Vivian Yi-Ju; Su, Huey-Jen

    2009-05-01

    While cold surge is one of the most conspicuous features of the winter monsoon in East Asia, its impact on human health remains underexplored. Based on the definition by the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan, we identified four cold surges between 2000 and 2003 and collected the cardiovascular disease mortality data 2 weeks before and 2 weeks after these events. We attempted to answer the following research questions: 1) whether the cold surges impose an adverse and immediate effect on cardiovascular mortality; 2) whether the people living in temperate zones have a higher tolerance of extreme temperature drop than those in the subtropics. With geographic weighting techniques, we not only found that the cardiovascular disease mortality rates increased significantly after the cold surges, but also discovered a spatially varying pattern of tolerance to cold surges. Even within a small study area such as Taiwan, human reaction to severe weather drop differs across space. Needless to say, in the U.S., these findings should be considered in redirecting policy to address populations living in warm places when extreme temperature drops occur.

  3. Hurricane impacts on a pair of coastal forested watersheds: implications of selective hurricane damage to forest structure and streamflow dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Jayakaran

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Hurricanes are infrequent but influential disruptors of ecosystem processes in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Every southeastern forested wetland has the potential to be struck by a tropical cyclone. We examined the impact of Hurricane Hugo on two paired coastal watersheds in South Carolina in terms of stream flow and vegetation dynamics, both before and after the hurricane's passage in 1989. The study objectives were to quantify the magnitude and timing of changes including a reversal in relative streamflow-difference between two paired watersheds, and to examine the selective impacts of a hurricane on the vegetative composition of the forest. We related these impacts to their potential contribution to change watershed hydrology through altered evapotranspiration processes. Using over thirty years of monthly rainfall and streamflow data we showed that there was a significant transformation in the hydrologic character of the two watersheds – a transformation that occurred soon after the hurricane's passage. We linked the change in the rainfall-runoff relationship to a catastrophic shift in forest vegetation due to selective hurricane damage. While both watersheds were located in the path of the hurricane, extant forest structure varied between the two watersheds as a function of experimental forest management techniques on the treatment watershed. We showed that the primary damage was to older pines, and to some extent larger hardwood trees. We believe that lowered vegetative water use impacted both watersheds with increased outflows on both watersheds due to loss of trees following hurricane impact. However, one watershed was able to recover to pre hurricane levels of canopy transpiration at a quicker rate due to the greater abundance of pine seedlings and saplings in that watershed.

  4. 76 FR 63541 - Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-13

    ...-2010-0288] Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants AGENCY: Nuclear... Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants.'' This regulatory guide provides licensees and applicants with... hurricane and design-basis hurricane-generated missiles that a nuclear power plant should be designed...

  5. Storm surges in the Western Black Sea. Operational forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. MUNGOV

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The frequency of the storm surges in the Black Sea is lower than that in other regions of the World Ocean but they cause significant damages as the magnitude of the sea level set-up is up to 7-8 times greater than that of other sea level variations. New methods and systems for storm surge forecasting and studying their statistical characteristics are absolutely necessary for the purposes of the coastal zone management. The operational forecasting storm surge model of Meteo-France was adopted for the Black Sea in accordance with the bilateral agreement between Meteo-France and NINMH. The model was verified using tide-gauge observations for the strongest storms observed along the Bulgarian coast over the last 10 years.

  6. Wave-Tide-Surge Coupled Simulation for Typhoon Maemi

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Byung Ho Choi; Byung Il Min; Kyeong Ok Kim; Jin Hee Yuk

    2013-01-01

    The main task of this study focuses on studying the effect of wave-current interaction on currents,storm surge and wind wave as well as effects of current induced wave refraction and current on waves by using numerical models which consider the bottom boundary layer and sea surface roughness parameter for shallow and smooth bed area around Korean Peninsula.The coupled system (unstructured-mesh SWAN wave and ADCIRC) run on the same unstructured mesh.This identical and homogeneous mesh allows the physics of wave-circulation interactions to be correctly resolved in both models.The unstructured mesh can be applied to a large domain allowing all energy from deep to shallow waters to be seamlessly followed.There is no nesting or overlapping of structured wave meshes,and no interpolation is required.In response to typhoon Maemi (2003),all model components were validated independently,and shown to provide a faithful representation of the system's response to this storm.The waves and storm surge were allowed to develop on the continental shelf and interact with the complex nearshore environment.The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for prediction of the typhoon surge.The result show that it is important to incorporate the wave-current interaction effect into coastal area in the wave-tide-surge coupled model.At the same time,it should consider effects of depth-induced wave breaking,wind field,currents and sea surface elevation in prediction of waves.Specially,we found that:(1) wave radiation stress enhanced the current and surge elevation otherwise wave enhanced nonlinear bottom boundary layer decreased that,(2) wind wave was significantly controlled by sea surface roughness thus we cautiously took the experimental expression.The resulting modeling system can be used for hindcasting (prediction) the wave-tide-surge coupled environments at complex coastline,shallow water and fine sediment area like areas around Korean Peninsula.

  7. Geological Controls on Glacier Surging?: Statistics and Speculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flowers, G. E.; Crompton, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    Glacier surging represents an end-member behavior in the spectrum of ice dynamics, involving marked acceleration and high flow speeds due to abrupt changes in basal mechanics. Though much effort has been devoted to understanding the role of basal hydrology and thermal regime in fast glacier flow, fewer studies have addressed the potential role of the geologic substrate. One interesting observation is that surge-type glaciers appear almost universally associated with unconsolidated (till) beds, and several large-scale statistical studies have revealed correlations between glacier surging and bedrock properties. We revisit this relationship using field measurements. We selected 20 individual glaciers for sampling in a 40x40 km region of the St. Elias Mountains of Yukon, Canada. Eleven of these glaciers are known to surge and nine are not. The 20 study glaciers are underlain by lithologies that we have broadly classified into two types: metasedimentary only and mixed metasedimentary-granodiorite. We characterized geological and geotechnical properties of the bedrock in each basin, and analyzed the hydrochemistry and mineralogy and grain size distribution (GSD) of the suspended sediments in the proglacial streams. Here we focus on some intriguing results of the GSD analysis. Using statistical techniques, including significance testing and principal component analysis, we find that: (1) lithology determines GSD for non-surge-type glaciers, with metasedimentary basins associated with finer mean grain sizes and mixed-lithology basins with coarser mean grain sizes, but (2) the GSDs associated with surge-type glaciers are intermediate between the distributions described above, and are statistically indistinguishable between metasedimentary and mixed lithology basins. The latter suggests either that surge-type glaciers in our study area occur preferentially in basins where various processes conspire to produce a characteristic GSD, or that the surge cycle itself exerts an

  8. Purple Pitcher Plant (Sarracenia rosea) Dieback and Partial Community Disassembly following Experimental Storm Surge in a Coastal Pitcher Plant Bog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Matthew J.; Battaglia, Loretta L.

    2015-01-01

    Sea-level rise and frequent intense hurricanes associated with climate change will result in recurrent flooding of inland systems such as Gulf Coastal pitcher plant bogs by storm surges. These surges can transport salt water and sediment to freshwater bogs, greatly affecting their biological integrity. Purple pitcher plants (Sarracenia rosea) are Gulf Coast pitcher plant bog inhabitants that could be at a disadvantage under this scenario because their pitcher morphology may leave them prone to collection of saline water and sediment after a surge. We investigated the effects of storm surge water salinity and sediment type on S. rosea vitality, plant community structure, and bog soil-water conductivity. Plots (containing ≥1 ramet of S. rosea) were experimentally flooded with fresh or saline water crossed with one of three sediment types (local, foreign, or no sediment). There were no treatment effects on soil-water conductivity; nevertheless, direct exposure to saline water resulted in significantly lower S. rosea cover until the following season when a prescribed fire and regional drought contributed to the decline of all the S. rosea to near zero percent cover. There were also significant differences in plant community structure between treatments over time, reflecting how numerous species increased in abundance and a few species decreased in abundance. However, in contrast to S. rosea, most of the other species in the community appeared resilient to the effects of storm surge. Thus, although the community may be somewhat affected by storm surge, those few species that are particularly sensitive to the storm surge disturbance will likely drop out of the community and be replaced by more resilient species. Depending on the longevity of these biological legacies, Gulf Coastal pitcher plant bogs may be incapable of fully recovering if they become exposed to storm surge more frequently due to climate change. PMID:25874369

  9. VFTO仿真计算中避雷器模型研究%Study on Surge Arrester Model in the Simulation and Calculation of VFTO

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钟笑拳; 周力行; 赵宪; 邓慧都; 刘涛; 彭杰

    2014-01-01

    With the wide use of the all closed gas insulate substation (GIS), the very fast transient overvoltage ( VFTO) caused by the operations of disconnectors has triggered more and more accidents. The metal oxide arrest-er has been widely applied in terms of limiting over voltage. This paper summarizes the current application of the four types of surge arrester model, and builds the corresponding electromagnetic transient program ATP-EMTP sim-ulation models using. Taking a 1000kV GIS in China as a research backgroudne, the very fast transient overvoltage caused by the operations of disconnectors by the action of the four surge arrester model is simulated, acquire the o-ver voltage waveform in the time domain is acquired, amplitude-freequency charateristic diagram is then transfor-ming the time domain waveform using MATLAB. The inhibitory effects of the four types of surge arrester model on VFTO are compared. The results show that the fourth model is more accurate, it can better suppress the amplitude and frequency of the overvoltage.%随着全封闭式气体绝缘变电站( GIS)的广泛引用,由隔离开关操作引起的特快速暂态过电压( VFTO)造成的事故频发。金属氧化物避雷器在限制过电压方面应用广泛,总结了目前应用的4种避雷器模型,运用电磁暂态程序ATP-EMTP分别建立仿真模型,以国内某1000 kVGIS电站为研究背景,分别模拟了在这4种避雷器模型作用下由隔离开关分闸操作引起特快速暂态过电压,得到了过电压的时域波形图,再运用MATLAB对时域波形进行变换得到VFTO的幅频特性图。对比了4种避雷器模型对VFTO的抑制效果,其中第4种模型更加精确,对过电压幅值、频率抑制效果最好。

  10. Hurricane Sandy, Disaster Preparedness, and the Recovery Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzi, Michael A

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy was the second largest and costliest hurricane in U.S. history to affect multiple states and communities. This article describes the lived experiences of 24 occupational therapy students who lived through Hurricane Sandy using the Recovery Model to frame the research. Occupational therapy student narratives were collected and analyzed using qualitative methods and framed by the Recovery Model. Directed content and thematic analysis was performed using the 10 components of the Recovery Model. The 10 components of the Recovery Model were experienced by or had an impact on the occupational therapy students as they coped and recovered in the aftermath of the natural disaster. This study provides insight into the lived experiences and recovery perspectives of occupational therapy students who experienced Hurricane Sandy. Further research is indicated in applying the Recovery Model to people who survive disasters. Copyright © 2015 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

  11. Dependence between sea surge, river flow and precipitation in south and west Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Svensson

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Estuaries around Great Britain may be at heightened risk of flooding because of the simultaneous occurrence of extreme sea surge and river flow, both of which may be caused by mid-latitude cyclones. A measure especially suited for extremes was employed to estimate dependence between river flow and sea surge. To assist in the interpretation of why flow-surge dependence occurs in some areas and not in others, the dependence between precipitation and surge and between precipitation and river flow was also studied. Case studies of the meteorological situations leading to high surges and/or river flows were also carried out. The present study concerns catchments draining to the south and west coasts of Great Britain. Statistically significant dependence between river flow and daily maximum sea surge may be found at catchments spread along most of this coastline. However, higher dependence is generally found in catchments in hilly areas with a southerly to westerly aspect. Here, precipitation in south-westerly airflow, which is generally the quadrant of prevailing winds, will be enhanced orographically as the first higher ground is encountered. The sloping catchments may respond quickly to the abundant rainfall and the flow peak may arrive in the estuary on the same day as a large sea surge is produced by the winds and low atmospheric pressure associated with the cyclone. There are three regions where flow-surge dependence is strong: the western part of the English south coast, southern Wales and around the Solway Firth. To reduce the influence of tide-surge interaction on the dependence analysis, the dependence between river flow and daily maximum surge occurring at high tide was estimated. The general pattern of areas with higher dependence is similar to that using the daily maximum surge. The dependence between river flow and daily maximum sea surge is often strongest when surge and flow occur on the same day. The west coast from Wales and

  12. A Look Inside Hurricane Alma

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific started off with a whimper late last month as Alma, a Category 2 hurricane, slowly made its way up the coast of Baja California, packing sustained winds of 110 miles per hour and gusts of 135 miles per hour. The above image of the hurricane was acquired on May 29, 2002, and displays the rainfall rates occurring within the storm. Click the image above to see an animated data visualization (3.8 MB) of the interior of Hurricane Alma. The images of the clouds seen at the beginning of the movie were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's (NOAA's) Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite (GOES) network. As the movie continues, the clouds are peeled away to reveal an image of rainfall levels in the hurricane. The rainfall data were obtained by the Precipitation Radar aboard NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The Precipitation Radar bounces radio waves off of clouds to retrieve a reading of the number of large, rain-sized droplets within the clouds. Using these data, scientists can tell how much precipitation is occurring within and beneath a hurricane. In the movie, yellow denotes areas where 0.5 inches of rain is falling per hour, green denotes 1 inch per hour, and red denotes over 2 inches per hour. (Please note that high resolution still images of Hurricane Alma are available in the NASA Visible Earth in TIFF format.) Image and animation courtesy Lori Perkins, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

  13. Compression station anti-surge system considerations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurz, Rainer; White, Robert C. [Solar Turbines Incorporated, Houston, TX (United States)

    2005-07-01

    Centrifugal compressor surge and its prevention have drawn significant attention in the literature. An important aspect of surge avoidance lies in the design of the compressor station and, in particular, the piping upstream and downstream of the compressor. Most anti-surge systems are perfectly capable of avoiding surge during normal operating conditions. However, unplanned emergency shutdowns present a significant challenge, and surge avoidance in these cases depends to a large degree on the station layout. Furthermore, the concepts used in the anti surge system (valves, piping, coolers) also impact the start-up of the station, or of individual units of the station. In this paper a simplified surge control system model is presented and used to develop simpler rules that help with proper sizing of upstream and downstream piping systems, as well as the necessary control element. Since the design of the surge control and recycle system also affects the start-up of units and stations, start-up considerations for stations with and without cooled recycle loops are discussed. (author)

  14. Luminescence dating of storm-surge sediment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cunningham, A.C.

    2011-01-01

    Geological evidence of storm surges has the potential to provide vital information on storm-surge risk. Sediment from the coastal dunes of the Netherlands contains evidence of extreme floods that occurred before reliable measurements of water level began. For these sediments to be useful in flood-ri

  15. Study on the stability of waterpower-speed control system for hydropower station with upstream and downstream surge chambers based on regulation modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J. P.; Yang, J. D.; Guo, W. C.; Teng, Y.

    2014-03-01

    In allusion to the hydropower station with upstream and downstream surge chambers, a complete mathematical model of waterpower-speed control system that includes pipeline system and turbine regulation system is established under the premise of the breakthrough of Thoma assumption in this paper. The comprehensive transfer functions and free movement equations that characterize the dynamic characteristics of system are derived when the mode of governor is respectively frequency regulation and power regulation. Then according to Routh- Hurwitz theorem, the stability domain that describes the good or bad of stability is drawn in the coordinate system with the relative areas of upstream and downstream surge chambers as abscissa and ordinate respectively. Finally, the effects of Thoma assumption, flow inertia, regulation modes, and governor parameters on the stability of waterpower-speed control system are analyzed by means of stability domain. The following conclusions have been come to: Thoma assumption made the stability worse. The flow inertia Tw has unfavorable effect on the stability of the two regulation modes. The stability of power regulation mode is obviously superior to frequency regulation mode under the same condition, but the parametric variation sensibility of the former is inferior to the latter. For the governor parameters, the stability continually gets better with the increase of temporary droop bt and damping device time constant Td, while the stability of frequency regulation would get worse with the increase of temporary droop bt when the damping device time constant Td takes small value. As the increase of permanent droop bp, the stability of power regulation mode gets worse.

  16. Conductive surge testing of circuits and systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richman, P.

    1980-01-01

    Techniques are given for conductive surge testing of powered electronic equipment. The correct definitions of common and normal mode are presented. Testing requires not only spike-surge generators with a suitable range of open-circuit voltage and short-circuit current waveshapes, but also appropriate means, termed couplers, for connecting test surges to the equipment under test. Key among coupler design considerations is minimization of fail positives resulting from reduction in delivered surge energy due to the coupler. Back-filters and the lines on which they are necessary, are considered as well as ground-fault and ground potential rise. A method for monitoring delivered and resulting surge waves is mentioned.

  17. Predicting hurricane wind damage by claim payout based on Hurricane Ike in Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Myong Kim

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasing occurrence of natural disasters and their related damage have led to a growing demand for models that predict financial loss. Although considerable research on the financial losses related to natural disasters has found significant predictors, there has been a lack of comprehensive study that addresses the relationship among vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and the economic losses of individual buildings. This study identifies the vulnerability indicators for hurricanes to establish a metric to predict the related financial loss. We classify hurricane-prone areas by highlighting the spatial distribution of losses and vulnerabilities. This study used a Geographical Information System (GIS to combine and produce spatial data and a multiple regression method to establish a wind damage prediction model. As the dependent variable, we used the value of the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA claim payout divided by the appraised values of the buildings to predict real economic loss. As independent variables, we selected a hurricane indicator and built environment vulnerability indicators. The model we developed can be used by government agencies and insurance companies to predict hurricane wind damage.

  18. Analysis of the Risk and Vulnerability of the Cancun Beach System-Wilma Hurricane Case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, R.; Ruiz, G.; Escalante, E.

    2007-05-01

    In the last decade, many researchers have been focused on the growth in risk associated with global warming and its implications; such as rising sea levels, increasing cyclone frequency and intensity, among others. However, in some cases, for an adequate understanding of the processes, it is also important to incorporate short time analysis of anthropogenic modifications that induce increased vulnerability, for example the effects of Hurricane Wilma (2005) at Cancun, Mexico. Cancun is located on the Mexican Caribbean Sea (latitude 21º05' N, longitude 86º46' W) and is the most important tourist destination in Mexico. For this research several studies have been carried out integrating previous reports, historical photo analysis, field work and the application of several numerical models (wave, currents, storm surge, sediment transport, etc.) for the characterization of the system for normal and extreme conditions. The measurements of wave conditions during the passing of Hurricane Wilma in front of Cancun show maximum wave heights of around 18 m, mean wave periods of 16 s, surface and bottom currents of 2 m/s. Incredibly, more than 7 million cubic meters of sand were moved from the Cancun beach system to other coast cells thus leaving the resort with no beach. The data presented concerning modifications on the barrier island demonstrates that these extreme meteorological events were responsible for the littoral changes, due to the loss of system flexibility in the biological dynamics and physical equilibrium of the systems, with social, environmental and economic implications. The main conclusion of this work is that local anthropogenic modifications have induced more vulnerability and risk to Cancun beach than those associated with global warming.

  19. Household Adjustments to Hurricane Katrina

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Meri Davlasheridze; Qin Fan

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines household adjustments to Hurricane Katrina by estimating the effects of Katrina-induced damages on changes in household demographics and income distributions in the Orleans Parish...

  20. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  1. Modelling the response of Placentia Bay to hurricanes Igor and Leslie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Zhimin; Han, Guoqi; de Young, Brad

    2017-04-01

    A three-dimensional, baroclinic, finite-volume ocean model (FVCOM) is used to examine hurricane induced responses in Placentia Bay, Newfoundland. Hurricane Igor (2010) and Hurricane Leslie (2012) made landfall within 100 km of the mouth of the bay, with the former to the eastern side and the latter on the western side. The model results have reasonable agreement with field observations on sea level, near-surface currents and sea surface temperature (SST). During landfall the two hurricanes cause the opposite shifts in inner bay circulation. Hurricane Igor overwhelms the mean inflow into the inner bay and shifts the currents to outflow. Hurricane Leslie reinforces the inflow into the inner bay. The peak storm surge is significantly influenced by local wind and air pressure during Leslie, accounting for 34% and 62% at the Argentia and St. Lawrence tide-gauge stations respectively, but predominately due to remote forcing entering the upstream eastern open boundary during Igor. There is a strong near-surface near-inertial response during Leslie, but a weak one during Igor. Stratification plays an important role in both generation and dissipation of near-inertial oscillation. A strong pre-storm stratification during Leslie favours the generation of near-inertia oscillation. Strong turbulent mixing induced on the right side of Leslie generates large vertical movement of the thermocline and thus contributes to strong near-inertia oscillation inside the mixed layer. The barotropic simulation results in a significant underestimation of near-surface currents and near-inertial oscillation. The baroclinic simulation shows a large increase of the current gradient in the vertical, as the first baroclinic mode in response to the hurricane forcing.

  2. Potential of MODIS EVI in Identifying Hurricane Disturbance to Coastal Vegetation in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fugui Wang

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Frequent hurricane landfalls along the northern Gulf of Mexico, in addition to causing immediate damage to vegetation, also have long term effects on coastal ecosystem structure and function. This study investigated the utility of using time series enhanced vegetation index (EVI imagery composited in MODIS product MOD13Q1 for assessing hurricane damage to vegetation and its recovery. Vegetation in four US coastal states disturbed by five hurricanes between 2002 and 2008 were explored by change imagery derived from pre- and post-hurricane EVI data. Interpretation of the EVI changes within months and between years distinguished a clear disturbance pattern caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, and a recovering trend of the vegetation between 2005 and 2008, particularly within the 100 km coastal zone. However, for Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Lili, the disturbance pattern which varied by the change imagery were not noticeable in some images due to lighter vegetation damage. The EVI pre- and post-hurricane differences between two adjacent years and around one month after hurricane disturbance provided the most likely damage area and patterns. The study also revealed that as hurricanes damaged vegetation in some coastal areas, strong precipitation associated with these storms may benefit growth of vegetation in other areas. Overall, the study illustrated that the MODIS product could be employed to detect severe hurricane damage to vegetation, monitor vegetation recovery dynamics, and assess benefits of hurricanes to vegetation.

  3. The Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network of the U.S. Geological Survey—Past and future implementation of storm-response monitoring, data collection, and data delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdi, Richard J.; Lotspeich, R. Russell; Robbins, Jeanne C.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Mullaney, John R.; Massey, Andrew J.; Banks, William S.; Roland, Mark A.; Jenter, Harry L.; Peppler, Marie C.; Suro, Thomas P.; Schubert, Christopher E.; Nardi, Mark R.

    2017-06-20

    After Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the northeastern Atlantic coast of the United States on October 29, 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) carried out scientific investigations to assist with protecting coastal communities and resources from future flooding. The work included development and implementation of the Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network consisting of more than 900 monitoring stations. The SWaTH network was designed to greatly improve the collection and timely dissemination of information related to storm surge and coastal flooding. The network provides a significant enhancement to USGS data-collection capabilities in the region impacted by Hurricane Sandy and represents a new strategy for observing and monitoring coastal storms, which should result in improved understanding, prediction, and warning of storm-surge impacts and lead to more resilient coastal communities.As innovative as it is, SWaTH evolved from previous USGS efforts to collect storm-surge data needed by others to improve storm-surge modeling, warning, and mitigation. This report discusses the development and implementation of the SWaTH network, and some of the regional stories associated with the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, as well as some previous events that informed the SWaTH development effort. Additional discussions on the mechanics of inundation and how the USGS is working with partners to help protect coastal communities from future storm impacts are also included.

  4. Hurricane damaged fixed platforms and wellhead structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shuttleworth, E.P.; Frieze, P.A.

    1998-03-01

    The objective of this study was to review data on damages to offshore platforms with a view to determining their suitability for further exploitation and analysis through a preliminary assessment of trends in the data when viewed from a risk standpoint. To realise this objective, a database on hurricane and other storm related damages was generated and past design practice, particularly concerning environmental load levels, was established. Information was gathered on extreme wave heights, damages, platform details, pushover analyses and structural frame load tests. The information was obtained through: a literature survey of journals, conference proceedings, design codes and guidelines; approaches to organisations in the offshore industry with significant experience of hurricanes, storm-damaged structures and pushover analyses; and interrogation of three major databases on offshore storm and other damages - PMB, MMS and WOAD. (author)

  5. The Hurricane and Its Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burpee, Robert W.

    Recent population increases in coastal regions of the tropics and subtropics have greatly enhanced man's vulnerability to tropical cyclones. Thus, this book on hurricanes by Robert H. Simpson and Herbert Riehl, two of the leading contributors to hurricane research during the last 35 years, comes along when people of differing backgrounds want to learn more about hurricanes. In the 20 years since Dunn and Miller published Atlantic Hurricanes, technical advances in weather satellites, computer modeling and data processing, and research aircraft have substantially increased the tropical meteorologist's understanding of hurricane structure and dynamics. During this same time, field experiments have led to detailed knowledge of the atmospheric environment within which tropical cyclones are initiated. The authors have attempted to describe many aspects of hurricanes for readers that range from students of meteorology to those concerned with planning for natural hazards in the coastal zone. Because Simpson and Riehl have addressed such a wide audience, many readers with a knowledge of atmospheric science will find that the book is overly descriptive, while readers without some background in physics will find it is too technical.

  6. Using the QBO to predict the number of hurricanes hitting the U.S

    CERN Document Server

    Coughlin, Katie

    2007-01-01

    A simple study of the relationship between the QBO and the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, both in the Basin and hitting the U.S. coastline, demonstrates that the QBO is not a particularly useful index to help predict hurricane numbers on five-year time scales. It is shown that there is very little difference between the number of hurricanes following easterly winds in the equatorial stratosphere and the number that follow westerly winds. Given this it is reasonable one would make better predictions just using the mean number of hurricanes in lieu of using the QBO and this is also simply demonstrated here.

  7. Storm surge and tidal range energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Matthew; Angeloudis, Athanasios; Robins, Peter; Evans, Paul; Neill, Simon

    2017-04-01

    The need to reduce carbon-based energy sources whilst increasing renewable energy forms has led to concerns of intermittency within a national electricity supply strategy. The regular rise and fall of the tide makes prediction almost entirely deterministic compared to other stochastic renewable energy forms; therefore, tidal range energy is often stated as a predictable and firm renewable energy source. Storm surge is the term used for the non-astronomical forcing of tidal elevation, and is synonymous with coastal flooding because positive storm surges can elevate water-levels above the height of coastal flood defences. We hypothesis storm surges will affect the reliability of the tidal range energy resource; with negative surge events reducing the tidal range, and conversely, positive surge events increasing the available resource. Moreover, tide-surge interaction, which results in positive storm surges more likely to occur on a flooding tide, will reduce the annual tidal range energy resource estimate. Water-level data (2000-2012) at nine UK tide gauges, where the mean tidal amplitude is above 2.5m and thus suitable for tidal-range energy development (e.g. Bristol Channel), were used to predict tidal range power with a 0D modelling approach. Storm surge affected the annual resource estimate by between -5% to +3%, due to inter-annual variability. Instantaneous power output were significantly affected (Normalised Root Mean Squared Error: 3%-8%, Scatter Index: 15%-41%) with spatial variability and variability due to operational strategy. We therefore find a storm surge affects the theoretical reliability of tidal range power, such that a prediction system may be required for any future electricity generation scenario that includes large amounts of tidal-range energy; however, annual resource estimation from astronomical tides alone appears sufficient for resource estimation. Future work should investigate water-level uncertainties on the reliability and

  8. Directional Storm Surge in Enclosed Seas: The Red Sea, the Adriatic, and Venice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl Drews

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Storm surge is dependent on wind direction, with maximum surge heights occurring when strong winds blow onshore. It is less obvious what happens when a port city is situated at the end of a long narrow gulf, like Venice at the northwestern end of the Adriatic Sea. Does the narrow marine approach to the port city limit the dangerous wind direction to a span of only a few degrees? This modeling study shows that the response in surge height to wind direction is a sinusoidal curve for port cities at the end of a long inlet, as well as for cities exposed along a straight coastline. Surge height depends on the cosine of the angle between the wind direction and the major axis of the narrow gulf. There is no special protection from storm surge afforded by a narrow ocean-going approach to a port city.

  9. Quantification of Sediment Transport During Glacier Surges and its Impact on Landform Architecture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Kurt H.; Schomacker, Anders; Korsgaard, Niels Jákup

    Eos Trans. AGU, 89(53), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C23A-0580 Multi-temporal DEMs (Digital Elevation Models) of glaciers and ice streams have successfully been used for extraction of changes in ice volume over time. In this study, we analysed DEMs of the Brúarjökull glacier forefield (Iceland......) for 1945, prior to the last surge in 1964, and for 2003 in order to assess the effect of the surge on the sediment architecture in the forefield. The pre- and post-surge DEMs allow direct quantification of the sediment volumes that were re-distributed in the forefield by the surging ice mass in 1964...... margin, where the impact of four surges is evident. Thus, the landscape at Brúarjökull is a product of multiple generations of superimposed landforms associated with extensive sediment transport through subglacial deformation....

  10. Identifying surging glaciers in the Central Karakoram for improved climate change impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Frank; Bolch, Tobias; Mölg, Nico; Rastner, Philipp

    2015-04-01

    Several recent studies have investigated glacier changes in the Karakoram mountain range, a region where glaciers behave differently (mass gain and advancing tongues) compared to most other regions in the world. Attribution of this behaviour to climate change is challenging, as many glaciers in the Karakoram are of surge type and have actively surged in the recent past. The measured changes in length, area, volume or velocity in this region are thus depending on the time-period analysed and include non-climatic components. Hence, a proper analysis of climate change impacts on glaciers in this region requires a separation of the surging from the non-surging glaciers. This is challenging as the former often lack the typical surface characteristics such as looped moraines (e.g. when they are steep and small) and/or they merge (during a surge) with a larger non-surging glacier and create looped moraines on its surface. By analysing time series of satellite images that are available since 1961, the heterogeneous behaviour of glaciers in the Karakoram can be revealed. In this study, we have analysed changes in glacier terminus positions in the Karakoram over different time periods from 1961 to 2014 for several hundred glaciers using Corona KH-4 and KH-4B, Hexagon KH-9, Terra ASTER, and Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and OLI satellite data. For the last 15 years, high-speed animations of image time-series reveal details of glacier flow and surge dynamics that are otherwise difficult to detect. For example, several of the larger glaciers with surging tributaries (e.g. Panmah, Sarpo Laggo, Skamri, K2 glacier) are stationary and downwasting despite the mass contributions from the surging glaciers. The analysis of the entire time series reveals a complex pattern of changes through time with retreating, advancing, surging and stationary glaciers that are partly regionally clustered. While most of the non-surging glaciers show only small changes in terminus position (±100 m or less

  11. Visualizing uncertainties in a storm surge ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas

    2015-01-15

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables the interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations and estimates of the sea surface height and other model variables that are used for storm surge prediction. Coastal inundation, caused by hurricanes and tropical storms, poses large risks for today\\'s societies. High-fidelity numerical models of water levels driven by hurricane-force winds are required to predict these events, posing a challenging computational problem, and even though computational models continue to improve, uncertainties in storm surge forecasts are inevitable. Today, this uncertainty is often exposed to the user by running the simulation many times with different parameters or inputs following a Monte-Carlo framework in which uncertainties are represented as stochastic quantities. This results in multidimensional, multivariate and multivalued data, so-called ensemble data. While the resulting datasets are very comprehensive, they are also huge in size and thus hard to visualize and interpret. In this paper, we tackle this problem by means of an interactive and integrated visual analysis system. By harnessing the power of modern graphics processing units for visualization as well as computation, our system allows the user to browse through the simulation ensembles in real time, view specific parameter settings or simulation models and move between different spatial and temporal regions without delay. In addition, our system provides advanced visualizations to highlight the uncertainty or show the complete distribution of the simulations at user-defined positions over the complete time series of the prediction. We highlight the benefits of our system by presenting its application in a real-world scenario using a simulation of Hurricane Ike.

  12. Hurricane Rita Track Radar Image with Topographic Overlay

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Animation About the animation: This simulated view of the potential effects of storm surge flooding on Galveston and portions of south Houston was generated with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Although it is protected by a 17-foot sea wall against storm surges, flooding due to storm surges caused by major hurricanes remains a concern. The animation shows regions that, if unprotected, would be inundated with water. The animation depicts flooding in one-meter increments. About the image: The Gulf Coast from the Mississippi Delta through the Texas coast is shown in this satellite image from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) overlain with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and the predicted storm track for Hurricane Rita. The prediction from the National Weather Service was published Sept. 22 at 4 p.m. Central Time, and shows the expected track center in black with the lighter shaded area indicating the range of potential tracks the storm could take. Low-lying terrain along the coast has been highlighted using the SRTM elevation data, with areas within 15 feet of sea level shown in red, and within 30 feet in yellow. These areas are more at risk for flooding and the destructive effects of storm surge and high waves. Data used in this image were acquired by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour, launched on Feb. 11, 2000. SRTM used the same radar instrument that comprised the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) that flew twice on the Space Shuttle Endeavour in 1994. SRTM was designed to collect 3-D measurements of the Earth's surface. To collect the 3-D data, engineers added a 60-meter (approximately 200-foot) mast, installed additional C-band and X-band antennas, and improved tracking and navigation devices. The mission is a cooperative project between NASA, the National Geospatial

  13. A comparison between EDA-EnVar and ETKF-EnVar data assimilation techniques using radar observations at convective scales through a case study of Hurricane Ike (2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Feifei; Xu, Dongmei; Xue, Ming; Min, Jinzhong

    2017-07-01

    This study examines the impacts of assimilating radar radial velocity (Vr) data for the simulation of hurricane Ike (2008) with two different ensemble generation techniques in the framework of the hybrid ensemble-variational (EnVar) data assimilation system of Weather Research and Forecasting model. For the generation of ensemble perturbations we apply two techniques, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) and the ensemble of data assimilation (EDA). For the ETKF-EnVar, the forecast ensemble perturbations are updated by the ETKF, while for the EDA-EnVar, the hybrid is employed to update each ensemble member with perturbed observations. The ensemble mean is analyzed by the hybrid method with flow-dependent ensemble covariance for both EnVar. The sensitivity of analyses and forecasts to the two applied ensemble generation techniques is investigated in our current study. It is found that the EnVar system is rather stable with different ensemble update techniques in terms of its skill on improving the analyses and forecasts. The EDA-EnVar-based ensemble perturbations are likely to include slightly less organized spatial structures than those in ETKF-EnVar, and the perturbations of the latter are constructed more dynamically. Detailed diagnostics reveal that both of the EnVar schemes not only produce positive temperature increments around the hurricane center but also systematically adjust the hurricane location with the hurricane-specific error covariance. On average, the analysis and forecast from the ETKF-EnVar have slightly smaller errors than that from the EDA-EnVar in terms of track, intensity, and precipitation forecast. Moreover, ETKF-EnVar yields better forecasts when verified against conventional observations.

  14. Complicated grief associated with hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shear, M Katherine; McLaughlin, Katie A; Ghesquiere, Angela; Gruber, Michael J; Sampson, Nancy A; Kessler, Ronald C

    2011-08-01

    Although losses are important consequences of disasters, few epidemiological studies of disasters have assessed complicated grief (CG) and none assessed CG associated with losses other than death of loved one. Data come from the baseline survey of the Hurricane Katrina Community Advisory Group, a representative sample of 3,088 residents of the areas directly affected by Hurricane Katrina. A brief screen for CG was included containing four items consistent with the proposed DSM-V criteria for a diagnosis of bereavement-related adjustment disorder. Fifty-eight and half percent of respondents reported a significant hurricane-related loss: Most-severe losses were 29.0% tangible, 9.5% interpersonal, 8.1% intangible, 4.2% work/financial, and 3.7% death of loved one. Twenty-six point one percent respondents with significant loss had possible CG and 7.0% moderate-to-severe CG. Death of loved one was associated with the highest conditional probability of moderate-to-severe CG (18.5%, compared to 1.1-10.5% conditional probabilities for other losses), but accounted for only 16.5% of moderate-to-severe CG due to its comparatively low prevalence. Most moderate-to-severe CG was due to tangible (52.9%) or interpersonal (24.0%) losses. Significant predictors of CG were mostly unique to either bereavement (racial-ethnic minority status, social support) or other losses (prehurricane history of psychopathology, social competence.). Nonbereavement losses accounted for the vast majority of hurricane-related possible CG despite risk of CG being much higher in response to bereavement than to other losses. This result argues for expansion of research on CG beyond bereavement and alerts clinicians to the need to address postdisaster grief associated with a wide range of losses. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  15. Global reconstructed daily surge levels from the 20th Century Reanalysis (1871-2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cid, Alba; Camus, Paula; Castanedo, Sonia; Méndez, Fernando J.; Medina, Raúl

    2017-01-01

    Studying the effect of global patterns of wind and pressure gradients on the sea level variation (storm surge) is a key issue in understanding the recent climate change effect on the dynamical state of the ocean. The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges from observations is a difficult task to accomplish since observations are not homogeneous in time, scarce in space, and moreover, their temporal coverage is limited. A recent global surge database developed by AVISO (DAC, Dynamic Atmospheric Correction) fulfilled the lack of data in terms of spatial coverage, but not regarding time extent, since it only includes the last two decades (1992-2014). In this work, we use the 20th Century Reanalysis V2 (20CR), which spans the years 1871 to 2010, to statistically reconstruct daily maximum surge levels at a global scale. A multivariate linear regression model is fitted between daily mean ERA-interim sea level pressure fields and daily maximum surge levels from DAC. Following, the statistical model is used to reconstruct daily surges using mean sea level pressure fields from 20CR. The verification of the statistical model shows good agreements between DAC levels and the reconstructed surge levels from the 20CR. The validation of the reconstructed surge with tide gauges, distributed throughout the domain, shows good accuracy both in terms of high correlations and small errors. A time series comparison is also depicted at specific tide gauges for the beginning of the 20th century, showing a high concordance. Therefore, this work provides to the scientific community, a daily database of maximum surge levels; which correspond to an extension of the DAC database, from 1871 to 2010. This database can be used to improve the knowledge on historical storm surge conditions, allowing the study of their temporal and spatial variability.

  16. Spatial distribution of erosion and deposition during a glacier surge: Brúarjökull, Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korsgaard, Niels J.; Schomacker, Anders; Benediktsson, Ívar Örn; Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Ingólfsson, Ólafur; Kjær, Kurt H.

    2015-12-01

    Time-series of digital elevation models (DEMs) of the forefield of the Brúarjökull surge-type glacier in Iceland were used to quantify the volume of material that was mobilized by the 1963-1964 surge. The DEMs were produced by stereophotogrammetry on aerial photographs from before the surge (1961) and after (1988 and 2003). The analysis was performed on two DEMs of Difference (DoDs), i.e., a 1961-2003 DoD documenting the impact of the surge and a 1988-2003 DoD documenting the post-surge modification of the juvenile surging glacier landsystem. Combined with a digital geomorphological map, the DoDs allow us to quantify the impact of the surge on a landsystem scale down to individual landforms. A total of 34.2 ± 11.3 × 106 m3 of material was mobilized in the 30.7-km2 study area as a result of the most recent surge event. Of these, 17.4 ± 6.6 × 106 m3 of the material were eroded and 16.8 ± 4.7 × 106 m3 were deposited. More than half of the deposited volume was ice-cored landforms. This study demonstrates that although the total mobilized mass volume is high, the net volume gain of ice and sediment deposited as landforms in the forefield caused by the surge is low. Furthermore, deposition of new dead-ice from the 1963-1964 surge constitutes as much as 64% of the volume gain in the forefield. The 1988-2003 DoD is used to quantify the melt-out of this dead-ice and other paraglacial modification of the recently deglaciated forefield of Brúarjökull.

  17. A new dynamical index for classification of cold surge types over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Tae-Won; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Heo, Jin-Woo; Deng, Yi

    2015-11-01

    The cold surges over East Asia can be classified into wave-train type and blocking type according to their dynamic origins. In the present study, two dynamic indices are proposed to objectively identify cold surge types using potential temperature ( θ) on the dynamic tropopause at 2-potential vorticity units (2-PVU) surface. The two indices are designed to represent primary characteristics of the two types of cold surge. The wave-train index ( WI) is defined as a difference of anomalous θ on the 2-PVU surface between the western North Pacific and northeast China, which captures a southward (northward) intrusion of cold (warm) air mass related to the trough-ridge pattern. The blocking index ( BI) is defined as a difference of anomalous θ between the subarctic region and northeast China, which indicates air mass overturning related to a reversal of the usual meridional θ gradient commonly observed in the occurrence of blocking type cold surge. Composite analyses based on the distribution of the WI and BI clearly demonstrate the dynamic evolutions of corresponding cold surge types. The wave-train cold surge is associated with a southeastward expansion of the Siberian High and northerly wind near surface, which is caused by growing baroclinic waves. During the blocking cold surge, a geopotential height dipole indicating the subarctic blocking and deepening of East Asian coastal trough induces a southward expansion of the Siberian High and northeasterly wind. Compared to the wave-train type, the blocking cold surge exhibits a longer duration and stronger intensity. In the new framework of these dynamic indices, we can detect a third type of cold surge when both the wave-train and the blocking occur together. In addition, we can exclude the events that do not have the essential features of the upper tropospheric disturbances or the subarctic anticyclonic circulation, which are responsible for cold surge occurrence, using the new indices.

  18. Numerical simulation of a low-lying barrier island's morphological response to Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindemer, C.A.; Plant, N.G.; Puleo, J.A.; Thompson, D.M.; Wamsley, T.V.

    2010-01-01

    Tropical cyclones that enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico generate storm surge and large waves that impact low-lying coastlines along the Gulf Coast. The Chandeleur Islands, located 161. km east of New Orleans, Louisiana, have endured numerous hurricanes that have passed nearby. Hurricane Katrina (landfall near Waveland MS, 29 Aug 2005) caused dramatic changes to the island elevation and shape. In this paper the predictability of hurricane-induced barrier island erosion and accretion is evaluated using a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model known as XBeach. Pre- and post-storm island topography was surveyed with an airborne lidar system. Numerical simulations utilized realistic surge and wave conditions determined from larger-scale hydrodynamic models. Simulations included model sensitivity tests with varying grid size and temporal resolutions. Model-predicted bathymetry/topography and post-storm survey data both showed similar patterns of island erosion, such as increased dissection by channels. However, the model under predicted the magnitude of erosion. Potential causes for under prediction include (1) errors in the initial conditions (the initial bathymetry/topography was measured three years prior to Katrina), (2) errors in the forcing conditions (a result of our omission of storms prior to Katrina and/or errors in Katrina storm conditions), and/or (3) physical processes that were omitted from the model (e.g., inclusion of sediment variations and bio-physical processes). ?? 2010.

  19. Coastal-change impacts during hurricane katrina: an overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallenger, Asbury; Wright, C. Wayne; Lillycrop, Jeff

    2007-01-01

    As part of an ongoing cooperative effort between USGS, NASA and USACE, the barrier islands within the right-front quadrant of Hurricane Katrina were surveyed with airborne lidar both before and after landfall. Dauphin Island, AL was located the farthest from landfall and wave runup intermittently overtopped its central and western sections. The Gulf-side of the island experienced severe erosion, leaving the first row of houses in the sea, while the bayside accreted. In contrast, the Chandeleur Islands, LA did not experience, this classic `rollover'. Rather, the island chain was completely stripped of sand, transforming a 40-km-long sandy island chain into a discontinuous series of muddy marsh islets. Models indicate that storm surge likely submerged the entire Chandeleur Island chain, at least during the latter part of the storm. The net result was destructive coastal change for the Chandeleur Islands, while Dauphin Island tended to maintain its form through landward migration.

  20. Emergency department surge capacity: recommendations of the Australasian Surge Strategy Working Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradt, David A; Aitken, Peter; Fitzgerald, Gerry; Swift, Roger; O'Reilly, Gerard; Bartley, Bruce

    2009-12-01

    For more than a decade, emergency medicine (EM) organizations have produced guidelines, training, and leadership for disaster management. However, to date there have been limited guidelines for emergency physicians (EPs) needing to provide a rapid response to a surge in demand. The aim of this project was to identify strategies that may guide surge management in the emergency department (ED). A working group of individuals experienced in disaster medicine from the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine Disaster Medicine Subcommittee (the Australasian Surge Strategy Working Group) was established to undertake this work. The Working Group used a modified Delphi technique to examine response actions in surge situations and identified underlying assumptions from disaster epidemiology and clinical practice. The group then characterized surge strategies from their corpus of experience; examined them through available relevant published literature; and collated these within domains of space, staff, supplies, and system operations. These recommendations detail 22 potential actions available to an EP working in the context of surge, along with detailed guidance on surge recognition, triage, patient flow through the ED, and clinical goals and practices. The article also identifies areas that merit future research, including the measurement of surge capacity, constraints to strategy implementation, validation of surge strategies, and measurement of strategy impacts on throughput, cost, and quality of care.

  1. Glacier surge mechanism: 1982-1983 surge of variegated glacier, alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamb, B; Raymond, C F; Harrison, W D; Engelhardt, H; Echelmeyer, K A; Humphrey, N; Brugman, M M; Pfeffer, T

    1985-02-01

    The hundredfold speedup in glacier motion in a surge of the kind the kind that took place in Variegated Glacier in 1982-1983 is caused by the buildup of high water pressure in the basal passageway system, which is made possible by a fundamental and pervasive change in the geometry and water-transport characteristics of this system. The behavior of the glacier in surge has many remarkable features, which can provide clues to a detailed theory of the surging process. The surge mechanism is akin to a proposed mechanism of overthrust faulting.

  2. Hurricane Wilma Poster (October 24, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Wilma poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-18 shows Hurricane Wilma exiting Florida off the east Florida coast on October 24, 2005. Poster size is 34"x30".

  3. Hurricane Hugo Poster (September 21, 1989)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Hugo poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-11 captures Hurricane Hugo slamming into South Carolina coast on September 21, 1989. Poster size is 36"x36".

  4. Hurricane Sandy Poster (October 29, 2012)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Sandy poster. Multi-spectral image from Suomi-NPP shows Hurricane Sandy approaching the New Jersey Coast on October 29, 2012. Poster size is approximately...

  5. Hurricane Jeanne Poster (September 25, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Jeanne poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Jeanne near Grand Bahama Island on September 25, 2004. Poster size is 34"x30".

  6. Hurricane Charley Poster (August 13, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Charley poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows a small but powerful hurricane heading toward southern Florida on August 13, 2004. Poster dimension...

  7. Hurricane Isabel Poster (September 18, 2003)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Isabel poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Isabel making landfall on the North Carolina Outer Banks on September 18, 2003. Poster...

  8. Hurricane Frances Poster (September 5, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Frances poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Frances over central Florida on September 5, 2004. Poster dimension is approximately...

  9. Hurricane Ivan Poster (September 15, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Ivan poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Ivan in the Gulf of Mexico on September 15, 2004. Poster size is 34"x30".

  10. Five years later: recovery from post traumatic stress and psychological distress among low-income mothers affected by Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxson, Christina; Fussell, Elizabeth; Rhodes, Jean; Waters, Mary

    2012-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina, which struck the Gulf Coast of the United States in August 2005, exposed area residents to trauma and extensive property loss. However, little is known about the long-run effects of the hurricane on the mental health of those who were exposed. This study documents long-run changes in mental health among a particularly vulnerable group-low income mothers-from before to after the hurricane, and identifies factors that are associated with different recovery trajectories. Longitudinal surveys of 532 low-income mothers from New Orleans were conducted approximately one year before, 7-19 months after, and 43-54 months after Hurricane Katrina. The surveys collected information on mental health, social support, earnings and hurricane experiences. We document changes in post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS), as measured by the Impact of Event Scale-Revised, and symptoms of psychological distress (PD), as measured by the K6 scale. We find that although PTSS has declined over time after the hurricane, it remained high 43-54 months later. PD also declined, but did not return to pre-hurricane levels. At both time periods, psychological distress before the hurricane, hurricane-related home damage, and exposure to traumatic events were associated with PTSS that co-occurred with PD. Hurricane-related home damage and traumatic events were associated with PTSS without PD. Home damage was an especially important predictor of chronic PTSS, with and without PD. Most hurricane stressors did not have strong associations with PD alone over the short or long run. Over the long run, higher earnings were protective against PD, and greater social support was protective against PTSS. These results indicate that mental health problems, particularly PTSS alone or in co-occurrence with PD, among Hurricane Katrina survivors remain a concern, especially for those who experienced hurricane-related trauma and had poor mental health or low socioeconomic status before the hurricane

  11. 涌泉根灌多点源交汇入渗湿润体试验研究%Experimental Study on Soil Wetted Volume of Multiple Point Sources from Surge Root Irrigation Interference Infiltration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黎朋红; 汪有科; 马理辉; 赵颖娜; 黎朋军

    2011-01-01

    在米脂山地微灌枣树示范基地进行原状土涌泉根灌入渗试验,研究了多点源交汇入渗条件下涌泉根灌湿润体特征值的变化规律.结果表明,涌泉根灌多点源交汇入渗孔洞处和交汇面处的湿润锋运移距离与入渗时间均符合幂函数关系,交汇面处的湿润锋运移速度比孔洞处的快,最终交汇入渗湿润土体沿孔洞布置方向的剖面形状近似带状;在孔洞底部周围的中间区域土壤含水率等值线分布相对复杂,等值线的分布类似于地形图上的"鞍部";涌泉根灌双点源灌溉比单点源、四点源灌溉效果好.%Undisturbed soil surge root irrigation infiltration experiment was carried out at mountain microirrigation demonstration base for jujube at Mizhi, and the variation of eigenvalues of wetted soil is studied under the condition of multi-point source interference infiltration. Results show: the infiltration distance of soil wetted front were good power functional relation with infiltration time on the intersection surface side and the holes surface side under surge root irrigation, and the wetting front migration velocity at the intersection surface was faster than that at the hole, and that is, finally the profile shape of wetting soil under interference infiltration in the direction of hole arrangement would nearly become a ribbon. In the middle area around the hole bottom, the soil water content contour distribution was relatively complicated and the contour distribution was similar to the“saddle” on the topography. The double point sources irrigation got the best irrigation effect under surge root irrigation.

  12. Aftermath of Hurricane Ike along Texas Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Three weeks after Hurricane Ike came ashore near Galveston, TX, residents returned to find their houses in ruins. From the coast to over 15 km inland, salt water saturated the soil as a result of the 7m storm surge pushed ashore by the force of the hurricane. The right image was acquired on September 28; the left image was acquired August 15, 2006. Vegetation is displayed in red, and inundated areas are in blue-green. Within the inundated area are several small 'red islands' of high ground where salt domes raised the level of the land, and protected the vegetation. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet. ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18, 1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products. The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER provides scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats; monitoring potentially active volcanoes; identifying crop stress; determining cloud morphology and physical properties; wetlands evaluation; thermal pollution monitoring; coral reef degradation; surface temperature mapping of soils and geology; and measuring surface heat balance. The U.S. science team is located at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. The Terra mission is part of NASA's Science Mission Directorate. Size: 37 by 49.5 kilometers (22.8 by 30.6 miles) Location: 29.8 degrees North latitude, 94.4 degrees West longitude Orientation: North at top Image Data: ASTER Bands 3, 2, and

  13. Aftermath of Hurricane Ike along Texas Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Three weeks after Hurricane Ike came ashore near Galveston, TX, residents returned to find their houses in ruins. From the coast to over 15 km inland, salt water saturated the soil as a result of the 7m storm surge pushed ashore by the force of the hurricane. The right image was acquired on September 28; the left image was acquired August 15, 2006. Vegetation is displayed in red, and inundated areas are in blue-green. Within the inundated area are several small 'red islands' of high ground where salt domes raised the level of the land, and protected the vegetation. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet. ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18, 1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products. The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER provides scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats; monitoring potentially active volcanoes; identifying crop stress; determining cloud morphology and physical properties; wetlands evaluation; thermal pollution monitoring; coral reef degradation; surface temperature mapping of soils and geology; and measuring surface heat balance. The U.S. science team is located at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. The Terra mission is part of NASA's Science Mission Directorate. Size: 37 by 49.5 kilometers (22.8 by 30.6 miles) Location: 29.8 degrees North latitude, 94.4 degrees West longitude Orientation: North at top Image Data: ASTER Bands 3, 2, and

  14. Validation of a surge model by full scale testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slot, H.J.; Meulendijks, D.; Smeulers, J.P.M.

    2009-01-01

    Surge of turbo compressors can cause large stepwise changes in flow and pressure, which can potentially damage the compressor and any equipment that is in direct connection with the compressor. Surge is usually avoided by an anti surge controller (ASC). However, in spite of the ASC surge cycles may

  15. Validation of a surge model by full scale testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smeulers, J.P.M.; Slot, H.J.; Meulendijks, D.

    2011-01-01

    Surge of turbo compressors can cause large stepwise changes in flow and pressure, which can potentially damage the compressor and any equipment that is in direct connection with the compressor. Surge is usually avoided by an anti surge controller (ASC). However, in spite of the ASC surge cycles may

  16. Spatial structure of directional wave spectra in hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esquivel-Trava, Bernardo; Ocampo-Torres, Francisco J.; Osuna, Pedro

    2015-01-01

    The spatial structure of the wave field during hurricane conditions is studied using the National Data Buoy Center directional wave buoy data set from the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The buoy information, comprising the directional wave spectra during the passage of several hurricanes, was referenced to the center of the hurricane using the path of the hurricane, the propagation velocity, and the radius of the maximum winds. The directional wave spectra were partitioned into their main components to quantify the energy corresponding to the observed wave systems and to distinguish between wind-sea and swell. The findings are consistent with those found using remote sensing data (e.g., Scanning Radar Altimeter data). Based on the previous work, the highest waves are found in the right forward quadrant of the hurricane, where the spectral shape tends to become uni-modal, in the vicinity of the region of maximum winds. More complex spectral shapes are observed in distant regions at the front of and in the rear quadrants of the hurricane, where there is a tendency of the spectra to become bi- and tri-modal. The dominant waves generally propagate at significant angles to the wind direction, except in the regions next to the maximum winds of the right quadrants. Evidence of waves generated by concentric eyewalls associated with secondary maximum winds was also found. The frequency spectra display some of the characteristics of the JONSWAP spectrum adjusted by Young (J Geophys Res 111:8020, 2006); however, at the spectral peak, the similarity with the Pierson-Moskowitz spectrum is clear. These results establish the basis for the use in assessing the ability of numerical models to simulate the wave field in hurricanes.

  17. Increases in gonorrhea among high school students following hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nsuami, M J; Taylor, S N; Smith, B S; Martin, D H

    2009-06-01

    To determine the prevalence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae in a student population before hurricane Katrina and after their residential neighbourhoods were devastated in the wake of the hurricane. Students in a New Orleans public high school were offered urine screening for N gonorrhoeae and Chlamydia trachomatis using nucleic acid amplification tests before (n = 346) and after (n = 333) hurricane Katrina. Based on studies showing gonorrhea clustering in physically deteriorated neighbourhoods, it was hypothesised that the post-Katrina gonorrhea prevalence would be higher among students whose neighbourhoods still showed signs of deterioration in the aftermath of the hurricane. Before and after hurricane Katrina, the prevalence of gonorrhea increased from 2.3% (8/346, 95% CI 1.3% to 4.6%) to 5.1% (17/333, 95% CI 3.1% to 8.2%), respectively (one-sided p = 0.027). In logistic regression of gonorrhea controlling for gender, age, chlamydia infection and exposure to hurricane-affected residential neighbourhood conditions, gonorrhea was significantly associated with female gender (odds ratio (OR) 2.6, 95% CI 1.0 to 6.3; p = 0.04) and with chlamydia infection (OR 9.2, 95% CI 3.9 to 21.7; phurricane (OR 2.2, 95% CI 0.9 to 5.4; p = 0.09). The analysis indicates that the odds of testing positive for gonorrhea more than doubled among students after the hurricane, indicating that surveillance activities should be restored to monitor sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among at-risk populations. Redoubled efforts should be put into STI screening programmes as soon as possible following natural disasters to prevent resurgent STI incidence rates.

  18. Manmade vulnerability of the Cancun Beach system: the case of hurricane Wilma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casarin, Rodolfo Silva; Baldwin, Edgar Mendoza [Instituto de Ingenieria, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico (Mexico); Martinez, Gabriel Ruiz; Marino-Tapia, Ismael [Laboratorio de Procesos Costeros, Centro de Investigacion y Estudios Avanzados del Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Merida (Mexico); Vanegas, Gregorio Posada [Instituto EPOMEX, Universidad Autonoma de Campeche (Mexico); Mancera, Edgar Escalante [Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnologia, Universidad Autonoma de Mexico, Unidad Academica Puerto Morelos (Mexico)

    2012-09-15

    Climate change and resultant coastal erosion and flooding have been the focus of many recent analyses. Often these studies overlook the effects of manmade modifications to the coastline which have reduced its resilience to storm events. In this investigation, we integrate previous reports, historical photo analysis, field work, and the application of numerical models to better understand the effects of Wilma, the most destructive hurricane to affect Cancun, Mexico. Huge waves (of significant height, >12 m), long mean wave periods (>12 s), devastating winds (>250 km/h), and powerful currents (>2 m/s) removed >7 million cubic meters of sand from the Cancun beach system, leaving 68% of the sub-aerial beach as bedrock, and the rest considerably eroded. Numerical simulations show that the modifications to the barrier island imposed by tourist infrastructure have considerably increased the rigidity of the system, increasing the potential erosion of the beach under extreme conditions. If there were no structural barriers, a series of breaches could occur along the beach, allowing exchange of water and alleviating storm surge on other sections of the beach. If the effects caused by anthropogenic changes to Cancun are ignored, the analysis is inaccurate and misleading. (Copyright copyright 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  19. 7 CFR 701.50 - 2005 hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false 2005 hurricanes. 701.50 Section 701.50 Agriculture... ADMINISTERED UNDER THIS PART § 701.50 2005 hurricanes. In addition benefits elsewhere allowed by this part, claims related to calendar year 2005 hurricane losses may be allowed to the extent provided for in §§ 701...

  20. Hurricane Katrina impacts on Mississippi forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonja N. Oswalt; Christopher Oswalt; Jeffery Turner

    2008-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina triggered public interest and concern for forests in Mississippi that required rapid responses from the scientific community. A uniform systematic sample of 3,590 ground plots were established and measured in 687 days immediately after the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast. The hurricane damaged an estimated 521 million trees with more...

  1. Hurricane Hazel: Canada's storm of the century

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gifford, Jim

    2004-01-01

    ... For EleanorHurricane_Hazel_Interior.qxd 6/22/04 3:35 PM Page 3 HURRICANE HAZEL Canada's Storm of the Century Jim Gifford The dundurn Group Toronto * OxfordHurricane_Hazel_Interior.qxd 6/22/04 3:35...

  2. Surge Capacity of Hospitals in Emergencies and Disasters With a Preparedness Approach: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheikhbardsiri, Hojjat; Raeisi, Ahmad Reza; Nekoei-Moghadam, Mahmood; Rezaei, Fatemeh

    2017-03-07

    Surge capacity is one of the most important components of hospital preparedness for responding to emergencies and disasters. The ability to provide health and medical care during a sudden increase in the number of patients or victims of disasters is a main concern of hospitals. We aimed to perform a systematic review of hospital surge capacity in emergencies and disasters with a preparedness approach. A systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The key words "surge," "surge capacity," "preparedness," "hospital emergency department," "hospital," "surge capability," "emergency," "hazard," "disaster," "catastrophe," "crisis," and "tragedy" were used in combination with the Boolean operators OR and AND. The Google Scholar, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, PubMed, Scopus, Ovid, Pro Quest, and Wiley databases were searched. A total of 1008 articles were extracted and 17 articles were selected for final review of surge capacity based on the objective of the study. Seventeen studies (1 randomized controlled trial, 2 qualitative studies, and 14 cross-sectional studies) investigated the surge capacity of hospitals in emergencies and disasters to evaluate the best evidence to date. The results of selected articles indicated that there are various ways to increase the capacity of hospitals in 4 domains: staff, stuff, structure, and system. Surge capacity is a basic element of disaster preparedness programs. Results of the current study could help health field managers in hospitals to prepare for capacity-building based on surge capacity components to improve and promote hospital preparedness programs. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;page 1 of 9).

  3. Quantification of Sediment Transport During Glacier Surges and its Impact on Landform Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjaer, K. H.; Schomacker, A.; Korsgaard, N. J.; Benediktsson, I. O.

    2008-12-01

    Multi-temporal DEMs (Digital Elevation Models) of glaciers and ice streams have successfully been used for extraction of changes in ice volume over time. In this study, we analysed DEMs of the Brúarjökull glacier forefield (Iceland) for 1945, prior to the last surge in 1964, and for 2003 in order to assess the effect of the surge on the sediment architecture in the forefield. The pre- and post-surge DEMs allow direct quantification of the sediment volumes that were re-distributed in the forefield by the surging ice mass in 1964. The surge-type glacier Brúarjökull has experienced six surges during the last four centuries; these are the largest surges known to have occurred in Iceland. During the most recent surge in 1963-64, the glacier advanced 8 km over a period of c. 3 months with a maximum ice flow velocity of 5 m/hr, and 700 km3 of ice were moved downglacier. The continued recession of Brúarjökull since the 1963-64 surge reveals a young landscape consisting of widely spaced and elongated bedrock hills interspaced with shallow sedimentary basins. The majority of the forefield is covered with a basal till sheet or glaciofluvial outwash fans. Mapping of the sediment thickness in the glacier forefield shows higher accumulation along ice marginal positions related to wedge formation during extremely rapid ice flow. Fast flow was sustained by overpressurized water causing sediment-bedrock decoupling beneath a thick sediment sequence that was coupled to the glacier. Elevation differences between the terrain surface in 1945 and 2003 confirm this scenario as huge quantities of sediment was eroded, deformed and transported during the last surge event. On the scale of individual landforms, it appears for a drumlin surface that is has been lowered 20 m from 1945-2003. Dead-ice melting can explain roughly 8 m of this lowering. Thus, the drumlin must have experienced 12 m of subglacial erosion during the 1964 surge. The imprint of at least four landform generations is

  4. How Disasters Affect Local Labor Markets: The Effects of Hurricanes in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belasen, Ariel R.; Polachek, Solomon W.

    2009-01-01

    This study improves upon the Difference in Difference approach by examining exogenous shocks using a Generalized Difference in Difference (GDD) technique that identifies economic effects of hurricanes. Based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, worker earnings in Florida counties hit by a hurricane increase up to 4 percent,…

  5. Reactive Aggression and Posttraumatic Stress in Adolescents Affected by Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsee, Monica A.

    2008-01-01

    The current study tests a theoretical model illustrating a potential pathway to reactive aggression through exposure to a traumatic event (Hurricane Katrina) in 166 adolescents (61% female, 63% Caucasian) recruited from high schools on the Gulf Coast of Mississippi. Results support an association between exposure to Hurricane Katrina and reactive…

  6. Predicting Mothers' Reports of Children's Mental Health Three Years after Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Sarah R.; Godoy, Leandra; Rhodes, Jean E.; Carter, Alice S.

    2013-01-01

    This study explored pathways through which hurricane-related stressors affected the psychological functioning of elementary school aged children who survived Hurricane Katrina. Participants included 184 mothers from the New Orleans area who completed assessments one year pre-disaster (Time 1), and one and three years post-disaster (Time 2 and Time…

  7. A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function

    CERN Document Server

    Ehrlich, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The data-driven model presented here carries stark implications for the large increased numbers of hurricanes which it predicts for a warmer world. Moreover, the rise in recent decades in the numbers of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but not the Pacific basin, is shown to have a simple explanation in terms of the specific form of H(z), which yields larger percentage increases when a fixed increase in sea surface temperature occurs at higher latitudes and lower temperatures.

  8. Generic Hurricane Extreme Seas State

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wehmeyer, Christof; Skourup, Jesper; Frigaard, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Extreme sea states, which the IEC 61400-3 (2008) standard requires for the ultimate limit state (ULS) analysis of offshore wind turbines are derived to establish the design basis for the conceptual layout of deep water floating offshore wind turbine foundations in hurricane affected areas...... data is required for a type specific conceptual design. ULS conditions for different return periods are developed, which can subsequently be applied in siteindependent analysis and conceptual design. Recordings provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), of hurricanes along...... for hurricane generates seas by Young (1998, 2003, and 2006), requiring maximum wind speeds, forward velocity and radius to maximum wind speed. An averaged radius to maximum sustained wind speeds, according to Hsu et al. (1998) and averaged forward speed of cyclonic storms are applied in the initial state...

  9. Model simulation of storm surge potential for Andaman islands

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kumar, V.S.; RameshBabu, V.; Babu, M.T.; Dhinakaran, G.; Rajamanickam, G.V.

    ) for storm surge forecasting at the eastern coast of India. Flather (1994) has applied another analytical model of Holland (1980) for wind and pressure fields in the case of surge simulation, forced by April 1991 Bangladesh storm. The basic atmospheric... parameters remain the same in all the parameterization schemes of storm wind field. Storm Surge Model Storm surge operational models are in use for a long time for forecasting and warning of storm surge disasters bordering the coasts in the parts of northern...

  10. Examining Pacific and Atlantic Hurricane Stage Duration and Length Since 1980

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wachtel, C. J.; Godek, M. L.

    2015-12-01

    Examining Pacific and Atlantic Hurricane Stage Duration and Length Since 1980Cassidy Wachtel and Melissa L. GodekDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, State University of New York College at Oneonta, New York 13820 Abstract:Each year hurricanes impact thousands of people and over time changes in hurricane characteristics, such as intensity and frequency, have been identified. This study aims to examine changes in hurricane stage duration and track length of West Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes between 1980 and 2013. Category 2 through 5 hurricanes are analyzed as they evolved through the full life cycle of a hurricane (tropical depression to tropical storm to category). The NOAA National Ocean Service hurricane reanalysis datasets are used to identify 286 storms which are statistically analyzed by category for 1) temporal changes in stage duration with time and 2) temporal changes in stage track lengths with time. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory daily mean composites of variables such as vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures are then examined to explain the temporal tendencies that may be related to climate change. Preliminary results indicate that category 2, 4 and 5 storms experienced an overall decrease in stage duration since 1980. For storms of these magnitudes, generally more rapid intensification to category has occurred over time. Contrarily, increased stage duration is detected for hurricanes that reached category 3 status, showing that these storms have strengthened more slowly with time. In all categories, a few unique cases occurred that exhibited stage durations greater than 1 standard deviation from the mean of the long term trend. These cases require further scrutiny for the environmental conditions that might explain the anomalous departures. Keywords: Hurricanes, West Atlantic Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, Storm Tracks, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression, Hurricane Stage

  11. The evolution of a submarine landform record following recent and multiple surges of Tunabreen glacier, Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flink, Anne Elina; Noormets, Riko; Kirchner, Nina; Benn, Douglas I.; Luckman, Adrian; Lovell, Harold

    2015-01-01

    This study focuses on the glacial landform record associated with recent surge events of Tunabreen - a calving tidewater glacier in Tempelfjorden, Spitsbergen. Submarine geomorphology and recent terminal fluctuations of Tunabreen's glacier front were studied using high-resolution multibeam-bathymetric data and a range of published and remote-sensing sources, including topographic maps, satellite images and aerial photographs. The retreat moraines in the inner part of Tempelfjorden have been correlated with glacier terminus positions during retreat from the 2004 surge maximum. Glacier surface velocity and ice-front positions derived from high-resolution TerraSAR-X satellite data show ice movements at the glacier front during minor advances of the front in winter when calving is suppressed. This suggests that the moraines have formed annually during quiescent phase winter advances. Tunabreen has experienced three surges since the Little Ice Age (LIA). This is in contrast with most Svalbard surging glaciers which have long quiescent phases and have typically only undergone one or two surges during this time. The landform record in Tempelfjorden is distinguished from previously studied glacier-surge landsystems by four, well-preserved sets of landform assemblages generated by the LIA advance and three subsequent surges, all of which partly modify earlier landform records. Based on the unique landform record in Tempelfjorden, a new conceptual landsystem model for frequently surging glaciers has been put forward improving our understanding of the dynamics of the surging glaciers and, most importantly, how they can be distinguished from the climatically-controlled glaciers in the geological record.

  12. Child mortality after Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanter, Robert K

    2010-03-01

    Age-specific pediatric health consequences of community disruption after Hurricane Katrina have not been analyzed. Post-Katrina vital statistics are unavailable. The objectives of this study were to validate an alternative method to estimate child mortality rates in the greater New Orleans area and compare pre-Katrina and post-Katrina mortality rates. Pre-Katrina 2004 child mortality was estimated from death reports in the local daily newspaper and validated by comparison with pre-Katrina data from the Louisiana Department of Health. Post-Katrina child mortality rates were analyzed as a measure of health consequences. Newspaper-derived estimates of mortality rates appear to be valid except for possible underreporting of neonatal rates. Pre-Katrina and post-Katrina mortality rates were similar for all age groups except infants. Post-Katrina, a 92% decline in mortality rate occurred for neonates (Katrina decline in infant mortality rate exceeds the pre-Katrina discrepancy between newspaper-derived and Department of Health-reported rates. A declining infant mortality rate raises questions about persistent displacement of high-risk infants out of the region. Otherwise, there is no evidence of long-lasting post-Katrina excess child mortality. Further investigation of demographic changes would be of interest to local decision makers and planners for recovery after public health emergencies in other regions.

  13. The dynamics of hurricane balls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, W. L.; Werner, Steven

    2015-09-01

    We examine the theory of the hurricane balls toy. This toy consists of two steel balls, welded together that are sent spinning on a horizontal surface somewhat like a top. Unlike a top, at high frequency the symmetry axis approaches a limiting inclination that is not perpendicular to the surface. We calculate (and experimentally verify) the limiting inclinations for three toy geometries. We find that at high frequencies, hurricane balls provide an easily realized and testable example of the Poinsot theory of freely rotating symmetrical bodies.

  14. Hurricane Season: Are You Ready?

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-09-24

    Hurricanes are one of Mother Nature’s most powerful forces. Host Bret Atkins talks with CDC’s National Center for Environmental Health Director Dr. Chris Portier about the main threats of a hurricane and how you can prepare.  Created: 9/24/2012 by Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (OPHPR), National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH), and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR).   Date Released: 9/24/2012.

  15. An Investigation of Hurricane-Induced Forerunner Surge in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-09-01

    Isabel tide gauge station which is sheltered by South Padre Island .................. ... 72 30 Computed barotropic height anomaly field (meters) for...approximately 370 km south of Puerto Rico . The next minimum of 899 mb was measured at 1742 GMT 7 August when the eye just passed through the strait. Allen...20 to Port Isabel Tide Gauge Station 26 9e 50 4t 0 3 20 1o’ 97 Fig. 29. Location of Port Isabel t.de 3auge station which is sheltered by south Padre

  16. Hurricanes accelerated the Florida-Bahamas lionfish invasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Matthew W; Purkis, Sam J

    2015-06-01

    In this study, we demonstrate how perturbations to the Florida Current caused by hurricanes are relevant to the spread of invasive lionfish from Florida to the Bahamas. Without such perturbations, this current represents a potential barrier to the transport of planktonic lionfish eggs and larvae across the Straits of Florida. We further show that once lionfish became established in the Bahamas, hurricanes significantly hastened their spread through the island chain. We gain these insights through: (1) an analysis of the direction and velocity of simulated ocean currents during the passage of hurricanes through the Florida Straits and (2) the development of a biophysical model that incorporates the tolerances of lionfish to ocean climate, their reproductive strategy, and duration that the larvae remain viable in the water column. On the basis of this work, we identify 23 occasions between the years 1992 and 2006 in which lionfish were provided the opportunity to breach the Florida Current. We also find that hurricanes during this period increased the rate of spread of lionfish through the Bahamas by more than 45% and magnified its population by at least 15%. Beyond invasive lionfish, we suggest that extreme weather events such as hurricanes likely help to homogenize the gene pool for all Caribbean marine species susceptible to transport. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Ocean Surface Wind Speed of Hurricane Helene Observed by SAR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Qing; Cheng, Yongcun; Li, Xiaofeng

    2011-01-01

    The hurricanes can be detected by many remote sensors, but synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can yield high-resolution (sub-kilometer) and low-level wind information that cannot be seen below the cloud by other sensors. In this paper, an assessment of SAR capability of monitoring high-resolution hur......The hurricanes can be detected by many remote sensors, but synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can yield high-resolution (sub-kilometer) and low-level wind information that cannot be seen below the cloud by other sensors. In this paper, an assessment of SAR capability of monitoring high......-resolution hurricane was conducted. A case study was carried out to retrieve ocean surface wind field from C-band RADARSAT-1 SAR image which captured the structure of hurricane Helene over the Atlantic Ocean on 20 September, 2006. With wind direction from the outputs of U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric...... CIWRAP models have been tested to extract wind speed from SAR data. The SAR retrieved ocean surface winds were compared to the aircraft wind speed observations from stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR). The results show the capability of hurricane wind monitoring by SAR....

  18. Impact of Low-Level Southerly Surges on Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves over the Central Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukutomi, Y.

    2014-12-01

    This study examines dynamical impacts of lower-tropospheric southerly wind surges originating in midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) on the development of mixed Rossby gravity (MRG) waves over the central Pacific during June-August 1979-2012, through the statistical analysis of the JRA-55 products and NOAA outgoing long wave radiation data. The central Pacific MRG waves are identified by an extended EOF (EEOF) analysis on 2-8-day filtered daily 850-hPa meridional wind anomalies during June-August 1979-2012. Composite analysis based on the leading EEOF time coefficients is able to capture the development of the MRG waves associated with a southerly surge originating in the SH extratropics. As a weak clockwise gyre as a part of an off-equatorial easterly wavetrain moves eastward and southeastward from the off-equatorial eastern Pacific into the equatorial central Pacific, the southerly surge penetrates into the equatorial tropics at around 150W. Then, the clockwise gyre develops into a MRG-type gyre over the central Pacific. A transition from an easterly wave-type gyre into a MRG-type gyre occurs associated with the southerly surge. The southerly surge forms a cross-equatorial flow on the western flank of the MRG-type gyre. The gyre is amplified when the southerly surge reaches the equatorial tropics. At the same time, convection coupled with the MRG-type gyre is enhanced. The southerly surges are originated in the midlatitude South Pacific, and they are induced by synoptic-scale baroclinic disturbances propagating along the SH midlatitude westerly jet. An eddy vorticity budget analysis indicates that the southerly surge plays an important role in spinning up the MRG-type gyre through transient advection of absolute vorticiy. A case study of a MRG-wave event in mid-July 2006 also illustrates development of a MRG wave associated with the southerly surge and an easterly wave-to-MRG wave transition.

  19. Predicting the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association claim payout of commercial buildings from Hurricane Ike

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Kim

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there currently is no comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses associated with individual buildings. To address this lack of research, this study will identify vulnerabilities and hurricane indicators, develop metrics to measure the influence of economic losses from hurricanes, and visualize the spatial distribution of vulnerability to evaluate overall hurricane damage. This paper has utilized the Geographic Information System to facilitate collecting and managing data, and has combined vulnerability factors to assess the financial losses suffered by Texas coastal counties. A multiple linear regression method has been applied to develop hurricane economic damage predicting models. To reflect the pecuniary loss, insured loss payment was used as the dependent variable to predict the actual financial damage. Geographical vulnerability indicators, built environment vulnerability indicators, and hurricane indicators were all used as independent variables. Accordingly, the models and findings may possibly provide vital references for government agencies, emergency planners, and insurance companies hoping to predict hurricane damage.

  20. The observed analysis on the wave spectra of Hurricane Juan (2003)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Fumin; BUI THI Thuy Duyen; PERRIE Will

    2014-01-01

    Hurricane Juan provides an excellent opportunity to probe into the detailed wave spectral patterns and spectral parameters of a hurricane system, with enough wave spectral observations around Juan’s track in the deep ocean and shallow coastal water. In this study, Hurricane Juan and wave observation stations around Juan’s track are introduced. Variations of wave composition are discussed and analyzed based on time series of one-dimensional frequency spectra, as well as wave steepness around Juan’s track:before, dur-ing, and after Juan’s passing. Wave spectral involvement is studied based on the observed one-dimensional spectra and two-dimensional spectra during the hurricane. The standardization method of the observed wave spectra during Hurricane Juan is discussed, and the standardized spectra show relatively conservative behavior, in spite of the huge variation in wave spectral energy, spectral peak, and peak frequency during this hurricane. Spectral widths’ variation during Hurricane Juan are calculated and analyzed. A two-layer nesting WW3 model simulation is applied to simulate the one-dimensional and two-dimensional wave spectra, in order to examine WW3’s ability in simulating detailed wave structure during Hurricane Juan.

  1. Hurricane Sandy science plan: impacts of environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caskie, Sarah A.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry

  2. Hurricane Sandy science plan: impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Warren H.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry

  3. Did Hurricane Sandy influence the 2012 US presidential election?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Joshua

    2014-07-01

    Despite drawing on a common pool of data, observers of the 2012 presidential campaign came to different conclusions about whether, how, and to what extent "October surprise" Hurricane Sandy influenced the election. The present study used a mixed correlational and experimental design to assess the relation between, and effect of, the salience of Hurricane Sandy on attitudes and voting intentions regarding President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in a large sample of voting-aged adults. Results suggest that immediately following positive news coverage of Obama's handling of the storm's aftermath, Sandy's salience positively influenced attitudes toward Obama, but that by election day, reminders of the hurricane became a drag instead of a boon for the President. In addition to theoretical implications, this study provides an example of how to combine methodological approaches to help answer questions about the impact of unpredictable, large-scale events as they unfold.

  4. Mold exposure and health effects following hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbeau, Deborah N; Grimsley, L Faye; White, LuAnn E; El-Dahr, Jane M; Lichtveld, Maureen

    2010-01-01

    The extensive flooding in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita created conditions ideal for indoor mold growth, raising concerns about the possible adverse health effects associated with indoor mold exposure. Studies evaluating the levels of indoor and outdoor molds in the months following the hurricanes found high levels of mold growth. Homes with greater flood damage, especially those with >3 feet of indoor flooding, demonstrated higher levels of mold growth compared with homes with little or no flooding. Water intrusion due to roof damage was also associated with mold growth. However, no increase in the occurrence of adverse health outcomes has been observed in published reports to date. This article considers reasons why studies of mold exposure after the hurricane do not show a greater health impact.

  5. Hospitals Capability in Response to Disasters Considering Surge Capacity Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholamreza Khademipour

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The man-made and natural disasters have adverse effects with sound, apparent, and unknown consequences. Among various components of disaster management in health sector, the most important role is performed by health-treatment systems, especially hospitals. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the surge capacity of hospitals of Kerman Province in disaster in 2015. Materials and Methods: This is a quantitative study, conducted on private, military, and medical sciences hospitals of Kerman Province. The sampling method was total count and data collection for the research was done by questionnaire. The first section of the questionnaire included demographic information of the studied hospitals and second part examined the hospital capacity in response to disasters in 4 fields of equipment, physical space, human resources, and applied programs. The extracted data were analyzed by descriptive statistics. Results: The mean capability of implementing the surge capacity programs by hospitals of Kerman Province in disasters and in 4 fields of equipment, physical space, human resources, and applied programs was evaluated as 7.33% (weak. The surge capacity capability of state hospitals in disasters was computed as 8% and compared to private hospitals (6.07% had a more suitable condition. Conclusion: Based on the results of study and significance of preparedness of hospitals in response to disasters, it is proposed that managers of studied hospitals take measures to promote the hospital response capacity to disasters based on 4 components of increasing hospital capacity.

  6. A global record of large storm surges and loss of life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwer, Laurens; Jonkman, Sebastiaan

    2017-04-01

    Storm surges can cause very high numbers of loss of life (fatalities) in single events, and these events are expected to increase due to sea-level rise and increasing population in coastal zones. However, compared to fatalities from fresh water flooding, for storm surges these fatality numbers are not consistently recorded, and often neglected in scientific assessments. In order to assess the impacts of major coastal storm surge events at the global level, we have developed a record of these events and associated loss of life. Information was compiled from the EM-DAT database for the period 1900-2013, using the two key categories of "Tropical cyclone" and "Storm surge/coastal flood", complemented with other databases and sources of information, and records of observed surge levels. We find that globally, each year on average about 8,500 people are killed and 1.3 million people are affected by storm surges. The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10,000 persons) from single events has decreased over time, which is in contrast with the slight increasing trends in fatalities observed for fresh water flooding. Also, there is a consistent and strong decrease in event mortality, which is the fraction of the people exposed to surges that lose their life, for all global regions, except South-East Asia. Thus, reduction in vulnerability to loss of life over time plays a significant role in storm surge impacts. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality appears to have decreased over time, showing the robustness of this finding. This quantified decline can be attributed to risk reduction efforts over the last decades, including improved forecasting, early warning and evacuation, but also improved coastal protection. These results have important implications for assessment studies on current and projected future coastal flood risk, as historical mortality fractions may not be valid to assess impacts from future events.

  7. Assessing a 1500-year record of Atlantic hurricane activity from South Andros Island, the Bahamas, using modeled hurricane climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, E. J.; Donnelly, J. P.; Emanuel, K.; Wiman, C.; van Hengstum, P. J.; Sullivan, R.; Winkler, T. S.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical cyclones can cause substantial loss of life and economic resources in coastal areas. In the current changing climate, it is of critical importance for society to understand any links between hurricane activity and climactic conditions. Unfortunately, historical tropical cyclone records are too short and incomplete to constrain how climate controls cyclone activity or to accurately quantify the risk of such storms to local human populations. Hurricane-induced deposits preserved in sediment cores can offer records of past hurricane activity stretching over thousands of years. Here we present a 1500 year annually resolved record of the frequency of intense hurricane events in a blue hole (AM4) on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This carbonate island in the western North Atlantic Ocean is positioned along the trackway of many storms originating in the Caribbean and Atlantic basins. The record is corroborated by cores collected from three other blue holes near AM4. Over the past 1500 years, there have been periods of elevated hurricane activity from 750 to 950 CE, 1150 to 1300 CE and 1550 to 1850 CE. The statistical significance of this sedimentary record is assessed utilizing a set of synthetic storms generated from a previously published statistical deterministic hurricane model. The model simulates climatological conditions from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, and the CMIP5 MPI model for the 20th century calibration (1850-2005 CE), and the millennial simulation (850-1849 CE). The average reoccurrence rates of hurricanes passing within 100 km of AM4 under each simulation are 1.06, 0.62, and 0.61 storms per year respectively. Using each climatology, thousands of hurricane induced deposits for the site are generated based on a random draw of these storms, a wind speed threshold for deposit, and a temporal resolution given the sedimentation rate of approximately 1 cm/yr at the site. Overall, the results of this study offer information on changes

  8. Controlling near shore nonlinear surging waves through bottom boundary conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Mukherjee, Abhik; Kundu, Anjan

    2016-01-01

    Instead of taking the usual passive view for warning of near shore surging waves including extreme waves like tsunamis, we aim to study the possibility of intervening and controlling nonlinear surface waves through the feedback boundary effect at the bottom. It has been shown through analytic result that the controlled leakage at the bottom may regulate the surface solitary wave amplitude opposing the hazardous variable depth effect. The theoretical results are applied to a real coastal bathymetry in India.

  9. Hurricane Ike Deposits on the Bolivar Peninsula, Galveston Bay, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Cynthia A.; Wilkinson, M. J.; Eppler, Dean

    2011-01-01

    In September 2008, Hurricane Ike made landfall on Galveston Bay, close to the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). The storm flooded much of the area with a storm surge ranging from 11 -20 feet. The Bolivar peninsula, the southeastern coast of Galveston Bay, experienced the brunt of the surge. Several agencies collected excellent imagery baselines before the storm and complementary data a few days afterward that helped define the impacts of the storm. In April of 2011, a team of scientists and astronauts from JSC conducted field mapping exercises along the Bolivar Peninsula, the section of the Galveston Bay coast most impacted by the storm. Astronauts routinely observe and document coastal changes from orbit aboard the International Space Station. As part of their basic Earth Science training, scientists at the Johnson Space Center take astronauts out for field mapping exercises so that they can better recognize and understand features and processes that they will later observe from the International Space Station. Using pre -storm baseline images of the Bolivar Peninsula near Rollover Pass and Gilchrist (NOAA/Google Earth Imagery and USGS aerial imagery and lidar data), the astronauts mapped current coastline positions at defined locations, and related their findings to specific coastal characteristics, including channel, jetties, and other developments. In addition to mapping, we dug trenches along both the Gulf of Mexico coast as well as the Galveston Bay coast of the Bolivar peninsula to determine the depth of the scouring from the storm on the Gulf side, and the amount of deposition of the storm surge deposits on the Bay side of the peninsula. The storm signature was easy to identify by sharp sediment transitions and, in the case of storm deposits, a layer of storm debris (roof shingles, PVC pipes, etc) and black, organic rich layers containing buried sea grasses in areas that were marshes before the storm. The amount of deposition was generally about 20 -25 cm

  10. Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

    2016-01-01

    Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100. PMID:27790992

  11. The impact of pet loss on the perceived social support and psychological distress of hurricane survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Sarah R; Rhodes, Jean E; Zwiebach, Liza; Chan, Christian S

    2009-06-01

    Associations between pet loss and posthurricane perceived social support and psychological distress were explored. Participants (N = 365) were primarily low-income African American single mothers who were initially part of an educational intervention study. All participants were exposed to Hurricane Katrina, and 47% experienced Hurricane Rita. Three waves of survey data, two from before the hurricanes, were included. Sixty-three participants (17.3%) reported losing a pet due to the hurricanes and their aftermath. Pet loss significantly predicted postdisaster distress, above and beyond demographic variables, pre- and postdisaster perceived social support, predisaster distress, hurricane-related stressors, and human bereavement, an association that was stronger for younger participants. Pet loss was not a significant predictor of postdisaster perceived social support, but the impact of pet loss on perceived social support was significantly greater for participants with low levels of predisaster support.

  12. Persistent influence of tropical North Atlantic wintertime sea surface temperature on the subsequent Atlantic hurricane season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xidong; Liu, Hailong; Foltz, Gregory R.

    2017-08-01

    This study explores the seasonally lagged impact of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) in the Atlantic main development region (MDR) on the subsequent Atlantic hurricane season. It is found that wintertime SST anomalies in the MDR can persist into the summer, explaining 42% of the variance in the subsequent hurricane season's SST during 1951-2010. An anomalously warm wintertime in the MDR is usually followed by an anomalously active hurricane season. Analysis shows an important constraint on the seasonal evolution of the MDR SST by the water vapor feedback process, in addition to the well-known wind-evaporation-SST and cloud-SST feedback mechanisms over the tropical North Atlantic. The water vapor feedback influences the seasonal evolution of MDR SST by modulating seasonal variations of downward longwave radiation. This wintertime thermal control of hurricane activity has significant implications for seasonal predictions and long-term projections of hurricane activity over the North Atlantic.

  13. Nonlinear interaction of axisymmetric circulation and nonaxisymmetric disturbances in hurricanes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LUO Zhexian

    2004-01-01

    The nonlinear interaction of axisymmetric circulation and nonaxisymmetric disturbances in hurricanes is numerically studied with a quasigeostrophic barotropic model of a higher resolution. It is pointed out that the interaction may be divided into two categories. In the first category, nonaxisymmetric disturbances decay, the coordinate locus of maximum relative vorticity ζmax is seemingly unordered, and the central pressure of hurricane rises; while in the second one, nonaxisymmetric disturbances develop, the locus of ζmax shows an ordered limit cycle pattern, and the central pressure falls remarkably. A succinct criterion is given to judge which category the interaction belongs to, i.e. the vortex beta Rossby number at the initial time Rβ 1 to the developing one. Finally, practical applications of theoretical results of the rotational adaptation process presented by Zeng and numerical results in this paper to the hurricane intensity prediction in China are also discussed.

  14. Analysis on Lightning Surge Propagation in Wind Farm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasuda, Yoh; Hara, Takehisa; Funabashi, Toshihisa

    Wind power generation is expected to become more important in the future distribution system. Although several prospective reports such as IEC 61400-24 and NREL SR-500-31115 indicate on insulation scheme and grounding design for lightning protection, it still seems that there are not many investigations on the problems. This paper therefore discusses lightning surge analysis using wind farm model with 2 or 10 ideal wind turbines. Changing parameters such as grounding resistance and lightning strike points, several cases were studied. As the result of the analysis using digital simulator ARENE, it is clear that the surge tends to propagate toward the end of a distribution line in a wind farm and there is possibility of insulation accidents at the other wind turbines when lightning attacks a wind turbine.

  15. Source of a Prominent Poleward Surge During Solar Cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Yeates, A R; van Driel-Gesztelyi, L

    2015-01-01

    As an observational case study, we consider the origin of a prominent poleward surge of leading polarity, visible in the magnetic butterfly diagram during Solar Cycle 24. A new technique is developed for assimilating individual regions of strong magnetic flux into a surface flux transport model. By isolating the contribution of each of these regions, the model shows the surge to originate primarily in a single high-latitude activity group consisting of a bipolar active region present in Carrington Rotations 2104-05 (November 2010-January 2011) and a multipolar active region in Rotations 2107-08 (February-April 2011). This group had a strong axial dipole moment opposed to Joy's law. On the other hand, the modelling suggests that the transient influence of this group on the butterfly diagram will not be matched by a large long-term contribution to the polar field, because of its location at high latitude. This is in accordance with previous flux transport models.

  16. Association between the rate of the morning surge in blood pressure and cardiovascular events and stroke

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LUO Yu; WANG Yan-li; WU Ying-biao; XU Yao; Geoffrey A.Head; Macgrathy Barry; LIANG Yu-lu

    2013-01-01

    Background The exaggerated surge in morning blood pressure (BP) that many patients experience upon awakening may be closely related to target organ damage and may be a predictor of cardiovascular complications.However,no previous studies have evaluated the rate of this surge independently of the evening period.It remains unclear whether the rate of increase experienced during the surge is a significant or independent determinant of cardiovascular events.Methods We randomly selected 340 ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) patients.All subjects without type 2 diabetes mellitus were divided into two groups:hypertensive group (n=170) and normotensive group (n=170).We analyzed ambulatory blood pressure recordings using a double logistic curve-fitting procedure to determine whether the magnitude of the surge in BP and heart rate (HR) in the morning is related to the level of BP in hypertensive individuals.We evaluated the association between the rate of the morning surge in systolic BP (SBP) and the incidence of myocardial infarction and stroke in normotensive and hypertensive subjects.Results Comparisons between hypertensive and normotensive subjects showed that the rates of the morning surges in SBP,mean BP (MBP),and diastolic BP (DBP) were greater in the hypertensive group (P <0.05) than in the normotensive group.The rate of morning surge in BP was found to be correlated with the daytime SBP (r=0.236,P <0.01),the difference between the day and night plateau (r=0.249,P <0.01),and the night SBP (r=-0.160,P <0.05),respectively.After controlling for age,sex,and mean systolic pressure within 24 hours (24 h SBP),the rate of morning surge in SBP was closely correlated with daytime SBP (r=0.463,P <0.001),night SBP (r=-0.173,P <0.05),and the difference between the day and night plateau (r=0.267,P <0.001).Logistic regression analysis revealed that the rate of morning surge in SBP was an independent determinant of myocardial infarction (OR=1.266,95% CI=1.153-1.389,P

  17. Computer-assisted mapping of pyroclastic surges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, M C; Sheridan, M F

    1982-08-13

    Volcanic hazard maps of surge boundaries and deposit thickness can be created by using a simplified eruption model based on an "energy line" concept of pyroclastic surge and flow emplacement. Computer image-processing techniques may be used to combine three-dimensional representations of the energy relations of pyroclasts moving under the influence of gravity (defined by an "energy cone") with digital topographic models of volcanoes to generate theoretical hazard maps. The deposit boundary and thickness calculated for the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens are qualitatively similar to those actually observed.

  18. Storm surge and river interaction in etuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskell, J.

    2012-04-01

    In coastal areas, particularly in regions developed on estuaries, extreme river flow can combine with storm surges to present a combined hazard. This combined risk is likely to be more prominent in estuaries where fluvial fresh water input comes from catchments in hilly regions where the dependence of extreme river discharge and sea level elevation can be most statistically significant (Svensson and Jones, 2004). The risk associated with these combined coastal hazards could increase due to climate change if there were an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. The global (IPCC, 2007) and local (Woodworth et al., 2009) rise in mean sea-level will increase the magnitude of extreme sea levels and surges will act on a higher coastal sea level and therefore increase the risk to coastal property and infrastructure. This may be associated with an increase in precipitation during extreme storm events which will have a large impact on river flooding. Therefore, the need for accurate operational forecasting of storm events will increase with the focus shifting to changes in the extreme 'tail end' of the distribution of storm events. Ideally an operational model that integrates storm surge, wave and fluvial forecasting with inundation and simulates their combined influence would be most effective for planning with respect to flood plain development, evacuation and flood defence. Current operational storm surge models are typically based on two-dimensional depth-averaged shallow water equations (Flather, 2000). Inundation models often use an approximation of the original shallow water equations which neglect the inertial terms (Prestininzi et al., 2011). These 2D flood plain inundation models are often coupled with a 1D model of the main channel of a river or estuary which permits the exchange of mass but assumes a limited exchange of momentum (Bates et al., 2005). A finite volume model (FVCOM) is used to investigate the combined influence of storm surge and river

  19. Automatic urban debris zone extraction from post-hurricane very high-resolution satellite and aerial imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shasha Jiang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Automated remote sensing methods have not gained widespread usage for damage assessment after hurricane events, especially for low-rise buildings, such as individual houses and small businesses. Hurricane wind, storm surge with waves, and inland flooding have unique damage signatures, further complicating the development of robust automated assessment methodologies. As a step toward realizing automated damage assessment for multi-hazard hurricane events, this paper presents a mono-temporal image classification methodology that quickly and accurately differentiates urban debris from non-debris areas using post-event images. Three classification approaches are presented: spectral, textural, and combined spectral–textural. The methodology is demonstrated for Gulfport, Mississippi, using IKONOS panchromatic satellite and NOAA aerial colour imagery collected after 2005 Hurricane Katrina. The results show that multivariate texture information significantly improves debris class detection performance by decreasing the confusion between debris and other land cover types, and the extracted debris zone accurately captures debris distribution. Additionally, the extracted debris boundary is approximately equivalent regardless of imagery type, demonstrating the flexibility and robustness of the debris mapping methodology. While the test case presents results for hurricane hazards, the proposed methodology is generally developed and expected to be effective in delineating debris zones for other natural hazards, including tsunamis, tornadoes, and earthquakes.

  20. Hurricane intensification along United States coast suppressed during active hurricane periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossin, James P

    2017-01-19

    The North Atlantic ocean/atmosphere environment exhibits pronounced interdecadal variability that is known to strongly modulate Atlantic hurricane activity. Variability in sea surface temperature (SST) is correlated with hurricane variability through its relationship with the genesis and thermodynamic potential intensity of hurricanes. Another key factor that governs the genesis and intensity of hurricanes is ambient environmental vertical wind shear (VWS). Warmer SSTs generally correlate with more frequent genesis and greater potential intensity, while VWS inhibits genesis and prevents any hurricanes that do form from reaching their potential intensity. When averaged over the main hurricane-development region in the Atlantic, SST and VWS co-vary inversely, so that the two factors act in concert to either enhance or inhibit basin-wide hurricane activity. Here I show, however, that conditions conducive to greater basin-wide Atlantic hurricane activity occur together with conditions for more probable weakening of hurricanes near the United States coast. Thus, the VWS and SST form a protective barrier along the United States coast during periods of heightened basin-wide hurricane activity. Conversely, during the most-recent period of basin-wide quiescence, hurricanes (and particularly major hurricanes) near the United States coast, although substantially less frequent, exhibited much greater variability in their rate of intensification, and were much more likely to intensify rapidly. Such heightened variability poses greater challenges to operational forecasting and, consequently, greater coastal risk during hurricane events.

  1. Hurricane damage assessment for residential construction considering the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Cao; LI Quanwang; PANG Long; ZOU Aming; ZHANG Long

    2016-01-01

    Natural hazards such as hurricanes may cause extensive economic losses and social disruption for civil structures and infrastructures in coastal areas, implying the importance of understanding the construction performance subjected to hurricanes and assessing the hurricane damages properly. The intensity and frequency of hurricanes have been reported to change with time due to the potential impact of climate change. In this paper, a probability-based model of hurricane damage assessment for coastal constructions is proposed taking into account the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency. The non-homogeneous Poisson process is employed to model the non-stationarity in hurricane occurrence while the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity is reflected by the time-variant statistical parameters (e.g., mean value and/or standard deviation), with which the mean value and variation of the cumulative hurricane damage are evaluated explicitly. The Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA, is chosen to illustrate the hurricane damage assessment method proposed in this paper. The role of non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and occurrence rate due to climate change in hurricane damage is investigated using some representative changing patterns of hurricane parameters.

  2. Hurricane intensification along United States coast suppressed during active hurricane periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossin, James P.

    2017-01-01

    The North Atlantic ocean/atmosphere environment exhibits pronounced interdecadal variability that is known to strongly modulate Atlantic hurricane activity. Variability in sea surface temperature (SST) is correlated with hurricane variability through its relationship with the genesis and thermodynamic potential intensity of hurricanes. Another key factor that governs the genesis and intensity of hurricanes is ambient environmental vertical wind shear (VWS). Warmer SSTs generally correlate with more frequent genesis and greater potential intensity, while VWS inhibits genesis and prevents any hurricanes that do form from reaching their potential intensity. When averaged over the main hurricane-development region in the Atlantic, SST and VWS co-vary inversely, so that the two factors act in concert to either enhance or inhibit basin-wide hurricane activity. Here I show, however, that conditions conducive to greater basin-wide Atlantic hurricane activity occur together with conditions for more probable weakening of hurricanes near the United States coast. Thus, the VWS and SST form a protective barrier along the United States coast during periods of heightened basin-wide hurricane activity. Conversely, during the most-recent period of basin-wide quiescence, hurricanes (and particularly major hurricanes) near the United States coast, although substantially less frequent, exhibited much greater variability in their rate of intensification, and were much more likely to intensify rapidly. Such heightened variability poses greater challenges to operational forecasting and, consequently, greater coastal risk during hurricane events.

  3. 77 FR 64564 - Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-22

    ... COMMISSION Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles AGENCY....221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles.'' The purpose of this ISG is to supplement the guidance regarding the application of Regulatory Guide 1.221, ``Design-Basis Hurricane and...

  4. Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

    2013-04-01

    use of historical information (to the Brest tide gauge located in the French Atlantic coast). In addition, the present work contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. Historical data are generally imprecise, and their inaccuracy should be properly accounted for in the analysis. However, as several authors believe, even with substantial uncertainty in the data, the use of historical information is a viable mean to improve estimates of rare events related to extreme environmental conditions. The preliminary results of this study suggest that the use of historical information increases the representativity of an outlier in the systematic data. It is also shown that the use of historical information, specifically the perception sea water level, can be considered as a reliable solution for the optimal planning and design of facilities to withstand extreme environmental conditions, which will occur during its lifetime, with an appropriate optimum of risk level. Findings are of practical relevance for applications in storm surge risk analysis and flood management.

  5. Longitudinal Impact of Hurricane Sandy Exposure on Mental Health Symptoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca M. Schwartz

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy hit the eastern coast of the United States in October 2012, causing billions of dollars in damage and acute physical and mental health problems. The long-term mental health consequences of the storm and their predictors have not been studied. New York City and Long Island residents completed questionnaires regarding their initial Hurricane Sandy exposure and mental health symptoms at baseline and 1 year later (N = 130. There were statistically significant decreases in anxiety scores (mean difference = −0.33, p < 0.01 and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD scores (mean difference = −1.98, p = 0.001 between baseline and follow-up. Experiencing a combination of personal and property damage was positively associated with long-term PTSD symptoms (ORadj 1.2, 95% CI [1.1–1.4] but not with anxiety or depression. Having anxiety, depression, or PTSD at baseline was a significant predictor of persistent anxiety (ORadj 2.8 95% CI [1.1–6.8], depression (ORadj 7.4 95% CI [2.3–24.1 and PTSD (ORadj 4.1 95% CI [1.1–14.6] at follow-up. Exposure to Hurricane Sandy has an impact on PTSD symptoms that persists over time. Given the likelihood of more frequent and intense hurricanes due to climate change, future hurricane recovery efforts must consider the long-term effects of hurricane exposure on mental health, especially on PTSD, when providing appropriate assistance and treatment.

  6. Hurricane interaction with the upper ocean in the Amazon-Orinoco plume region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Androulidakis, Yannis; Kourafalou, Vassiliki; Halliwell, George; Le Hénaff, Matthieu; Kang, Heesook; Mehari, Michael; Atlas, Robert

    2016-12-01

    The evolution of three successive hurricanes (Katia, Maria, and Ophelia) is investigated over the river plume area formed by the Amazon and Orinoco river outflows during September of 2011. The study focuses on hurricane impacts on the ocean structure and the ocean feedback influencing hurricane intensification. High-resolution (1/25° × 1/25° horizontal grid) numerical simulations of the circulation in the extended Atlantic Hurricane Region (Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Northwest Atlantic Ocean) were used to investigate the upper ocean response during the three hurricane-plume interaction cases. The three hurricanes revealed different evolution and intensification characteristics over an area covered by brackish surface waters. The upper ocean response to the hurricane passages over the plume affected region showed high variability due to the interaction of oceanic and atmospheric processes. The existence of a barrier layer (BL), formed by the offshore spreading of brackish waters, probably facilitated intensification of the first storm (Hurricane Katia) because the river-induced BL enhanced the resistance of the upper ocean to cooling. This effect was missing in the subsequent two hurricanes (Maria and Ophelia) as the eroded BL (due to Katia passage) allowed the upper ocean cooling to be increased. As a consequence, the amount of ocean thermal energy provided to these storms was greatly reduced, which acted to limit intensification. Numerical experiments and analyses, in tandem with observational support, lead to the conclusion that the presence of a river plume-induced BL is a strong factor in the ocean conditions influencing hurricane intensification.

  7. Population vulnerability to storm surge flooding in coastal Virginia, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hua; Behr, Joshua G; Diaz, Rafael

    2016-07-01

    This study aims to assess the vulnerability of populations to storm surge flooding in 12 coastal localities of Virginia, USA. Population vulnerability is assessed by way of 3 physical factors (elevation, slope, and storm surge category), 3 built-up components (road availability, access to hospitals, and access to shelters), and 3 household conditions (storm preparedness, financial constraints to recovering from severe weather events, and health fragility). Fuzzy analysis is used to generate maps illustrating variation in several types of population vulnerability across the region. When considering physical factors and household conditions, the most vulnerable neighborhoods to sea level rise and storm surge flooding are largely found in urban areas. However, when considering access to critical infrastructure, we find rural residents to be more vulnerable than nonrural residents. These detailed assessments can inform both local and state governments in catastrophic planning. In addition, the methodology may be generalized to assess vulnerability in other coastal corridors and communities. The originality is highlighted by evaluating socioeconomic conditions at refined scale, incorporating a broader range of human perceptions and predispositions, and employing a geoinformatics approach combining physical, built-up, and socioeconomic conditions for population vulnerability assessment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:500-509. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

  8. Stress and Support in Family Relationships after Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Megan; Reczek, Corinne

    2011-01-01

    In this article, the authors merge the study of support, strain, and ambivalence in family relationships with the study of stress to explore the ways family members provide support or contribute to strain in the disaster recovery process. The authors analyze interviews with 71 displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors, and identify three family…

  9. Hurricane Katrina Wind Investigation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desjarlais, A. O.

    2007-08-15

    This investigation of roof damage caused by Hurricane Katrina is a joint effort of the Roofing Industry Committee on Weather Issues, Inc. (RICOWI) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory/U.S. Department of Energy (ORNL/DOE). The Wind Investigation Program (WIP) was initiated in 1996. Hurricane damage that met the criteria of a major windstorm event did not materialize until Hurricanes Charley and Ivan occurred in August 2004. Hurricane Katrina presented a third opportunity for a wind damage investigation in August 29, 2005. The major objectives of the WIP are as follows: (1) to investigate the field performance of roofing assemblies after major wind events; (2) to factually describe roofing assembly performance and modes of failure; and (3) to formally report results of the investigations and damage modes for substantial wind speeds The goal of the WIP is to perform unbiased, detailed investigations by credible personnel from the roofing industry, the insurance industry, and academia. Data from these investigations will, it is hoped, lead to overall improvement in roofing products, systems, roofing application, and durability and a reduction in losses, which may lead to lower overall costs to the public. This report documents the results of an extensive and well-planned investigative effort. The following program changes were implemented as a result of the lessons learned during the Hurricane Charley and Ivan investigations: (1) A logistics team was deployed to damage areas immediately following landfall; (2) Aerial surveillance--imperative to target wind damage areas--was conducted; (3) Investigation teams were in place within 8 days; (4) Teams collected more detailed data; and (5) Teams took improved photographs and completed more detailed photo logs. Participating associations reviewed the results and lessons learned from the previous investigations and many have taken the following actions: (1) Moved forward with recommendations for new installation procedures

  10. Hurricane Katrina Wind Investigation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desjarlais, A. O.

    2007-08-15

    This investigation of roof damage caused by Hurricane Katrina is a joint effort of the Roofing Industry Committee on Weather Issues, Inc. (RICOWI) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory/U.S. Department of Energy (ORNL/DOE). The Wind Investigation Program (WIP) was initiated in 1996. Hurricane damage that met the criteria of a major windstorm event did not materialize until Hurricanes Charley and Ivan occurred in August 2004. Hurricane Katrina presented a third opportunity for a wind damage investigation in August 29, 2005. The major objectives of the WIP are as follows: (1) to investigate the field performance of roofing assemblies after major wind events; (2) to factually describe roofing assembly performance and modes of failure; and (3) to formally report results of the investigations and damage modes for substantial wind speeds The goal of the WIP is to perform unbiased, detailed investigations by credible personnel from the roofing industry, the insurance industry, and academia. Data from these investigations will, it is hoped, lead to overall improvement in roofing products, systems, roofing application, and durability and a reduction in losses, which may lead to lower overall costs to the public. This report documents the results of an extensive and well-planned investigative effort. The following program changes were implemented as a result of the lessons learned during the Hurricane Charley and Ivan investigations: (1) A logistics team was deployed to damage areas immediately following landfall; (2) Aerial surveillance--imperative to target wind damage areas--was conducted; (3) Investigation teams were in place within 8 days; (4) Teams collected more detailed data; and (5) Teams took improved photographs and completed more detailed photo logs. Participating associations reviewed the results and lessons learned from the previous investigations and many have taken the following actions: (1) Moved forward with recommendations for new installation procedures

  11. Impact of Hurricane Ivan on the regional longleaf pine growth study: is there a relation to site or stand conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    John S. Kush; John C. Gilbert

    2010-01-01

    The US Forest Service Regional Longleaf Pine Growth Study (RLGS) began its eighth re-measurement (40th year) during 2004 autumn. The study has 305 plots of which 171 plots are located on the Escambia Experimental Forest (EEF) in Brewton AL. EEF is operated by the U.S. Forest Service in cooperation with the T.R. Miller Mill Company. The RLGS has plots distributed across...

  12. Global reconstructed daily storm surge levels from the 20th century reanalysis (1871-2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cid, Alba; Camus, Paula; Castanedo, Sonia; Mendez, Fernando; Medina, Raul

    2015-04-01

    The study of global patterns of wind and pressure gradients, and more specifically, their effect on the sea level variation (storm surge), is a key issue in the understanding of recent climate changes. The local effect of storm surges on coastal areas (zones particularly vulnerable to climate variability and changes in sea level), is also of great interest in, for instance, flooding risk assessment. Studying the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges from observations is a difficult task to accomplish since observations are not homogeneous in time and scarce in space, and moreover, their temporal coverage is limited. The development of a global storm surge database (DAC, Dynamic Atmospheric Correction by Aviso, Carrère and Lyard, 2003) fulfils the lack of data in terms of spatial coverage, but not regarding time extent since it only includes last couple of decades (1992-2014). In this work, we propose the use of the 20CR ensemble (Compo et al., 2011) which spans from 1871 to 2010 to statistically reconstruct storm surge at a global scale and for a long period of time. Therefore, the temporal and spatial variability of storm surges can be fully studied and with much less effort than performing a dynamical downscaling. The statistical method chosen to carry out the reconstruction is based on multiple linear regression between an atmospheric predictor and the storm surge level at daily scale (Camus et al., 2014). The linear regression model is calibrated and validated using daily mean sea level pressure fields (and gradients) from the ERA-interim reanalysis and daily maxima surges from DAC. The obtained daily database of maximum daily surges has allowed us to estimate global trends at a centennial scale and analyse the effect of the changing climate on storm surges during the 20th century. Hence, this work improves the knowledge on historical storm-surge conditions and provides helpful information to the community concern on marine climate evolution and

  13. Evaluation of TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis)'s predictive skill for hurricane-triggered landslides: A case study in Macon County, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Z.; Hong, Y.; Kirschbaum, D.; Adler, R.F.; Gourley, J.J.; Wooten, R.

    2011-01-01

    The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically based slope-stability models that simulate the transient dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrains. TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis) is a USGS landslide prediction model, coded in Fortran, that accounts for the influences of hydrology, topography, and soil physics on slope stability. In this study, we quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal predictability of a Matlab version of TRIGRS (MaTRIGRS) in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Macon County, North Carolina where Hurricanes Ivan triggered widespread landslides in the 2004 hurricane season. High resolution digital elevation model (DEM) data (6-m LiDAR), USGS STATSGO soil database, and NOAA/NWS combined radar and gauge precipitation are used as inputs to the model. A local landslide inventory database from North Carolina Geological Survey is used to evaluate the MaTRIGRS' predictive skill for the landslide locations and timing, identifying predictions within a 120-m radius of observed landslides over the 30-h period of Hurricane Ivan's passage in September 2004. Results show that within a radius of 24 m from the landslide location about 67% of the landslide, observations could be successfully predicted but with a high false alarm ratio (90%). If the radius of observation is extended to 120 m, 98% of the landslides are detected with an 18% false alarm ratio. This study shows that MaTRIGRS demonstrates acceptable spatiotemporal predictive skill for landslide occurrences within a 120-m radius in space and a hurricane-event-duration (h) in time, offering the potential to serve as a landslide warning system in areas where accurate rainfall forecasts and detailed field data are available. The validation can be further improved with additional landslide information including the exact time of failure for each

  14. The Utility of Vulnerability and Social Capital Theories in Studying the Impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Elderly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durant, Thomas J., Jr.

    2011-01-01

    The definition of a disaster is followed by an explanation of vulnerability and social capital theories. The importance of using a sound theoretical framework and the utility and efficacy of vulnerability and social capital theories in studying the impact of natural disasters on the elderly population are emphasized and discussed. The conclusion…

  15. The Utility of Vulnerability and Social Capital Theories in Studying the Impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Elderly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durant, Thomas J., Jr.

    2011-01-01

    The definition of a disaster is followed by an explanation of vulnerability and social capital theories. The importance of using a sound theoretical framework and the utility and efficacy of vulnerability and social capital theories in studying the impact of natural disasters on the elderly population are emphasized and discussed. The conclusion…

  16. On the 'real' mass loss of some surging glaciers in the central Karakoram

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Several assessments of the mass changes of surging glaciers in the central Karakoram (and elsewhere) have shown near-zero changes over the typically decadal-long observation periods. This is in line with the theory that during a surge mass from a reservoir area is moved down-glacier to a receiving area with limited overall change. The resulting elevation changes of the glacier surface as determined by differencing DEMs from two points in time show a typical pattern (decreasing at higher, increasing at lower elevations) with a possible strong frontal advance (km scale) of the terminus. However, this is only half of the story as the observed mass gain at lower elevations is ultimately also a loss. This loss can only be determined when it is calculated separately and when sufficiently precise DEMs from the beginning and the end of a surge are available for each individual glacier. As the latter are hard to obtain, this study presents a simplified geomorphometric approach to approximate a potential maximum surge volume for 20 glaciers with a channel-like glacier fore field. By assuming a semi-elliptical cross-section of the channels, simple measurements of their average width, height and length in Google Earth provide the volume. Further glacier-specific parameters are taken from a recently compiled glacier inventory (area, slope) and Google Earth (minimum length and highest/lowest elevations) to obtain characteristics such as elevation ranges and volume. The average annual specific volume loss for each glacier is then determined by dividing the calculated surge volumes by the respective glacier area and the duration of a full surge cycle (obtained in a previous study). Which glacier area (minimum?) and surge duration (only the active phase?) have to be taken for this calculation is likely a matter of debate. With surge distances between about 1 and 5 km and channel widths (heights) between 300 and 700 (50 and 125) m, the surge volumes vary between 15 and 250 (mean 80

  17. A simple model for the spatially-variable coastal response to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, H.F.; Sallenger, A.H.; Holman, R.A.; Howd, P.A.

    2007-01-01

    The vulnerability of a beach to extreme coastal change during a hurricane can be estimated by comparing the relative elevations of storm-induced water levels to those of the dune or berm. A simple model that defines the coastal response based on these elevations was used to hindcast the potential impact regime along a 50-km stretch of the North Carolina coast to the landfalls of Hurricane Bonnie on August 27, 1998, and Hurricane Floyd on September 16, 1999. Maximum total water levels at the shoreline were calculated as the sum of modeled storm surge, astronomical tide, and wave runup, estimated from offshore wave conditions and the local beach slope using an empirical parameterization. Storm surge and wave runup each accounted for ∼ 48% of the signal (the remaining 4% is attributed to astronomical tides), indicating that wave-driven process are a significant contributor to hurricane-induced water levels. Expected water levels and lidar-derived measures of pre-storm dune and berm elevation were used to predict the spatially-varying storm-impact regime: swash, collision, or overwash. Predictions were compared to the observed response quantified using a lidar topography survey collected following hurricane landfall. The storm-averaged mean accuracy of the model in predicting the observed impact regime was 55.4%, a significant improvement over the 33.3% accuracy associated with random chance. Model sensitivity varied between regimes and was highest within the overwash regime where the accuracies were 84.2% and 89.7% for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd, respectively. The model not only allows for prediction of the general coastal response to storms, but also provides a framework for examining the longshore-variable magnitudes of observed coastal change. For Hurricane Bonnie, shoreline and beach volume changes within locations that experienced overwash or dune erosion were two times greater than locations where wave runup was confined to the foreshore (swash regime

  18. Synthetic Fentanyl Fueling Surge in Overdose Deaths: CDC

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_160618.html Synthetic Fentanyl Fueling Surge in Overdose Deaths: CDC U.S. Surgeon ... News) -- Deaths from overdoses of the synthetic narcotic fentanyl have surged in recent years, U.S. health officials ...

  19. Hurricane Footprints in Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco J. Tapiador

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the identification of hurricanes in low-resolution global climate models (GCM. As hurricanes are not fully resolvable at the coarse resolution of the GCMs (typically 2.5 × 2.5 deg, indirect methods such as analyzing the environmental conditions favoring hurricane formation have to be sought. Nonetheless, the dynamical cores of the models have limitations in simulating hurricane formation, which is a far from fully understood process. Here, it is shown that variations in the specific entropy rather than in dynamical variables can be used as a proxy of the hurricane intensity as estimated by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE. The main application of this research is to ascertain the changes in the hurricane frequency and intensity in future climates.

  20. Meta-Leadership in a Mega Disaster: A Case Study of Governor Haley Barbour’s Leadership During Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    ashore.99 As the storm moved southwest across the tip of the Florida peninsula, Katrina’s winds decreased slightly. The storm caused two deaths and...highway from the tip to Maine to the southern end of California. However, the debris had to be completely removed from property and properly disposed of...it does so by extrapolating only the good qualities from the leaders studied. This creates the sense that there can be a “ bionic ” meta-leader in

  1. Hurricane Katrina experience and the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder and depression among pregnant women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xu; Harville, Emily W; Mattison, Donald R; Elkind-Hirsch, Karen; Pridjian, Gabriella; Buekens, Pierre

    2010-01-01

    Little is known about the effects of disaster exposure and intensity on the development of mental disorders among pregnant women. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of exposure to Hurricane Katrina on mental health in pregnant women. Prospective cohort epidemiological study. Tertiary hospitals in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, U.S.A. Women who were pregnant during Hurricane Katrina or became pregnant immediately after the hurricane. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. The frequency of PTSD was higher in women with high hurricane exposure (13.8 percent) than women without high hurricane exposure (1.3 percent), with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 16.8 (95% confidence interval: 2.6-106.6) after adjustment for maternal race, age, education, smoking and alcohol use, family income, parity, and other confounders. The frequency of depression was higher in women with high hurricane exposure (32.3 percent) than women without high hurricane exposure (12.3 percent), with an aOR of 3.3 (1.6-7.1). Moreover, the risk of PTSD and depression increased with an increasing number of severe experiences of the hurricane. Pregnant women who had severe hurricane experiences were at a significantly increased risk for PTSD and depression. This information should be useful for screening pregnant women who are at higher risk of developing mental disorders after a disaster.

  2. The insulation coordination and surge arrester design for HTS cable system in Icheon substation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Hansang, E-mail: Hansang80@korea.ac.kr [School of Railway and Electrical Engineering, Kyungil University, Hayang-eup, Gyeongsan-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do 712-701 (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Dong-Hee [Department of New and Renewable Energy, Kyungil University, Hayang-eup, Gyeongsan-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do 712-701 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung-Ryul [Korea Electrotechnology Research Institute, Naeson-dong, Uiwang-si, Gyeonggi-do 437-080 (Korea, Republic of); Yang, Byeong-Mo [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Munji-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-760 (Korea, Republic of); Jang, Gilsoo, E-mail: gjang@korea.ac.kr [School of Electrical Engineering, Korea University, Anam-dong 5-ga, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 136-713 (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-01-15

    Highlights: ► It is necessary to study lightning response of the HTS cable. ► The analytic model has been developed for the HTS cable in the Icheon substation. ► Well-designed surge arrester has been verified through PSCAD/EMTDC simulations. -- Abstract: This paper proposes an insulation coordination and surge arrester design for HTS (High-Temperature Superconducting) cable system in Icheon substation in Korea. In the aspect of the economic analysis, since the HTS cable is very expensive, the insulation coordination to prevent the dielectric breakdown caused by the lightning surge should be considered carefully. Also, in the aspect of the power system reliability, since the HTS cable has much more capacity compared than conventional power cables and the ripple effect from the HTS cable failure may lead to the wide area blackout, an intensive study for insulation coordination from lightning surge is one of the most important considerations. In this paper, the insulation coordination for lightning surge is verified using HTS cable and power equipment models and the design of the proper surge arrester is proposed.

  3. Not so close but still extremely loud: recollection of the World Trade Center terror attack and previous hurricanes moderates the association between exposure to hurricane Sandy and posttraumatic stress symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palgi, Yuval; Shrira, Amit; Hamama-Raz, Yaira; Palgi, Sharon; Goodwin, Robin; Ben-Ezra, Menachem

    2014-05-01

    The present study examined whether recollections of the World Trade Center (WTC) terror attack and previous hurricanes moderated the relationship between exposure to Hurricane Sandy and related posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. An online sample of 1000 participants from affected areas completed self-report questionnaires a month after Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States. Participants reported their exposure to Hurricane Sandy, their PTSD symptoms, and recollections of the WTC terror attack and previous hurricanes elicited due to Hurricane Sandy. Exposure to Hurricane Sandy was related to PTSD symptoms among those with high level of recollections of the WTC terror attack and past hurricanes, but not among those with low level of recollections. The aftermath of exposure to Hurricane Sandy is related not only to exposure, but also to its interaction with recollections of past traumas. These findings have theoretical and practical implications for practitioners and health policy makers in evaluating and interpreting the impact of past memories on future natural disasters. This may help in intervention plans of social and psychological services. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Hurricane Force Winds in Explosive Maritime Extratropical Cyclones: A Modeling and Observational Study of Their Evolution and Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albright, Benjamin Scott

    Extratropical cyclones can be as powerful as tropical cyclones with winds reaching 33 m s-1 or even stronger. They can also be very large in scale, and impact life and property on the oceans as well as over the land if the storms make a landfall. Two conceptual models exist that attempt to explain how the extreme winds in the bent-back frontal zone of these cyclones occur. The first is a jet associated with the cold conveyor belt and the second is through a phenomenon known as a sting jet. Some of the objectives this thesis will address are: (1) The role of gradient wind is during the life-cycle of the cyclone, (2) how model results compare to actual observations, and (3) if the sting jet or cold conveyor belt jet are the only causes for high winds within the bent-back frontal zone, among others. This thesis will examine two case studies of extreme, extratropical cyclones that occurred over the North Atlantic Ocean. Extensive observations including dropsondes, Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) measurements from a NOAA WP-3D aircraft and satellite scatterometer measurements are used to compare with modeled results of the two case studies. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Version 3.4.1 and the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) NMM-B Launcher are used to model the two case studies and for high resolution and sensitivity testing. Trajectories calculated by the Read/Interpolate/Plot program and cross sections are additional tools used in the study. Some of the major conclusions included identifying sting jets in each storm but they were found not to be the major cause of the highest winds within the bent-back frontal zone. A secondary stream of air that accelerates from the west of the rapidly intensifying cyclone into a low-level jet located within a larger pressure gradient force and thermal gradient was found to be the major source of the high winds. It is suggested that the findings and conclusions based on the results of this

  5. The great Louisiana hurricane of August 1812

    OpenAIRE

    Mock, Cary J.; Chenoweth, Michael; Altamirano, Isabel; Rodgers, Matthew D.; García Herrera, Ricardo

    2010-01-01

    Major hurricanes are prominent meteorological hazards of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts. However, the official modern record of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones starts at 1851, and it does not provide a comprehensive measure of the frequency and magnitude of major hurricanes. Vast amounts of documentary weather data extend back several centuries, but many of these have not yet been fully utilized for hurricane reconstruction. These sources include weather diaries, ship logbooks, ship prote...

  6. The trauma signature of 2016 Hurricane Matthew and the psychosocial impact on Haiti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M; Cela, Toni; Marcelin, Louis Herns; Espinola, Maria; Heitmann, Ilva; Sanchez, Claudia; Jean Pierre, Arielle; Foo, Cheryl YunnShee; Thompson, Kip; Klotzbach, Philip; Espinel, Zelde; Rechkemmer, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    Background. Hurricane Matthew was the most powerful tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Basin season, bringing severe impacts to multiple nations including direct landfalls in Cuba, Haiti, Bahamas, and the United States. However, Haiti experienced the greatest loss of life and population disruption. Methods. An established trauma signature (TSIG) methodology was used to examine the psychological consequences of Hurricane Matthew in relation to the distinguishing features of this event. TSIG analyses described the exposures of Haitian citizens to the unique constellation of hazards associated with this tropical cyclone. A hazard profile, a matrix of psychological stressors, and a "trauma signature" summary for the affected population of Haiti - in terms of exposures to hazard, loss, and change - were created specifically for this natural ecological disaster. Results. Hazard characteristics of this event included: deluging rains that triggered mudslides along steep, deforested terrain; battering hurricane winds (Category 4 winds in the "eye-wall" at landfall) that dismantled the built environment and launched projectile debris; flooding "storm surge" that moved ashore and submerged villages on the Tiburon peninsula; and pummeling wave action that destroyed infrastructure along the coastline. Many coastal residents were left defenseless to face the ravages of the storm. Hurricane Matthew's slow forward progress as it remained over super-heated ocean waters added to the duration and degree of the devastation. Added to the havoc of the storm itself, the risks for infectious disease spread, particularly in relation to ongoing epidemics of cholera and Zika, were exacerbated. Conclusions. Hurricane Matthew was a ferocious tropical cyclone whose meteorological characteristics amplified the system's destructive force during the storm's encounter with Haiti, leading to significant mortality, injury, and psychological trauma.

  7. Tornadoes & Hurricanes. The Natural Disaster Series. Grades 4-8.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deery, Ruth

    The topics of tornadoes and hurricanes are important to children but are often missing from elementary textbooks. This document is a part of "The Natural Disaster Series" and is an attempt to supplement elementary science and social studies programs with lessons and student activities. Reasoning skills are emphasized throughout the…

  8. Hurricane Katrina winds damaged longleaf pine less than loblolly pine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt H. Johnsen; John R. Butnor; John S. Kush; Ronald C. Schmidtling; C. Dana. Nelson

    2009-01-01

    Some evidence suggests that longleaf pine might be more tolerant of high winds than either slash pine (Pinus elliotii Englem.) or loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.). We studied wind damage to these three pine species in a common garden experiment in southeast Mississippi following Hurricane Katrina,...

  9. Socioecological disparities in New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshua A. Lewis; Wayne C. Zipperer; Henrik Ernstson; Brittany Bernik; Rebecca Hazen; Thomas Elmqvist; Michael J. Blum

    2017-01-01

    Despite growing interest in urban resilience, remarkably little is known about vegetation dynamics in the aftermath of disasters. In this study, we examined the composition and structure of plant communities across New Orleans (Louisiana, USA) following catastrophic flooding triggered by levee failures during Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Focusing on eight...

  10. 30 CFR 77.209 - Surge and storage piles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Surge and storage piles. 77.209 Section 77.209... Installations § 77.209 Surge and storage piles. No person shall be permitted to walk or stand immediately above a reclaiming area or in any other area at or near a surge or storage pile where the...

  11. Validation of a surge model by full scale testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smeulers, J.P.M.; Gonzalez Díez, N.; Slot, H.J.

    2012-01-01

    Surge of turbo compressors can cause large almost step like changes in flow and pressure, which can potentially damage the compressor and any equipment that is in direct connection with the compressor. In spite of an anti-surge controller (ASC), at extreme events surge cycles may occur. In order to

  12. Science and the storms: The USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farris, G. S.; Smith, G.J.; Crane, M.P.; Demas, C.R.; Robbins, L.L.; Lavoie, D.L.

    2007-01-01

    rescuers could find persons trapped in attics and porches. They also delivered food and water to residents stranded along the lower Mississippi River for several days. That work is reported in chapter 3 of this volume. A great number of scientists contributed to this peer-reviewed report designed for a general audience. Because they work for USGS—an unbiased, multidisciplinary science organization that focuses on biology, geography, geology, geospatial information, and water—they are dedicated to the timely, relevant, and impartial study of the landscape and natural resources of the Nation, as well as natural hazards, like hurricanes, that threaten the Nation. To learn more about their work, visit the USGS Web site (www.usgs.gov).

  13. Hurricane Boundary-Layer Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    2501. Kundu PK. 1990. Fluid Mechanics . Academic Press: San Diego, USA. Kuo HL. 1982. Vortex boundary layer under quadratic surface stress. Boundary...identification of two mechanisms for the spin-up of the mean tangential circulation of a hurricane. The first involves convergence of absolute angular...momentum above the boundary layer, where this quantity is approximately conserved. This mechanism acts to spin up the outer circulation at radii

  14. Lessons Learnt From Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akundi, Murty

    2008-03-01

    Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and its suburbs on Monday August 29^th, 2005. The previous Friday morning, August 26, the National Hurricane Center indicated that Katrina was a Category One Hurricane, which was expected to hit Florida. By Friday afternoon, it had changed its course, and neither the city nor Xavier University was prepared for this unexpected turn in the hurricane's path. The university had 6 to 7 ft of water in every building and Xavier was closed for four months. Students and university personnel that were unable to evacuate were trapped on campus and transportation out of the city became a logistical nightmare. Email and all electronic systems were unavailable for at least a month, and all cell phones with a 504 area code stopped working. For the Department, the most immediate problem was locating faculty and students. Xavier created a list of faculty and their new email addresses and began coordinating with faculty. Xavier created a web page with advice for students, and the chair of the department created a separate blog with contact information for students. The early lack of a clear method of communication made worse the confusion and dismay among the faculty on such issues as when the university would reopen, whether the faculty would be retained, whether they should seek temporary (or permanent) employment elsewhere, etc. With the vision and determination of President Dr. Francis, Xavier was able to reopen the university in January and ran a full academic year from January through August. Since Katrina, the university has asked every department and unit to prepare emergency preparedness plans. Each department has been asked to collect e-mail addresses (non-Xavier), cell phone numbers and out of town contact information. The University also established an emergency website to communicate. All faculty have been asked to prepare to teach classes electronically via Black board or the web. Questions remain about the longer term issues of

  15. Cold basal conditions during surges control flow of fringing Arctic ice caps in Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Samuel; Christoffersen, Poul; Todd, Joe; Palmer, Steven

    2017-04-01

    Fringing ice caps separated from larger ice sheets are rarely studied, yet they are an important part of earth's cryosphere, which has become the largest source of global sea-level rise. Understanding marginal ice caps is crucial for being able to predict sea-level change as they are responsible for up to 20% of Greenland's mass loss for 2003-2008. Studies of fringing ice caps can furthermore provide useful insights into processes operating on glaciers that surge. Surging has been the focus of much recent glaciological work, especially with reference to thermal evolution of polythermal glaciers in High Mountain Asia and the High Arctic. This has shown that the classic divide between hydrologically-controlled surges ('hard-bed') in Alaska and thermally-regulated ('soft-bed') surges elsewhere is less stark than previously assumed. Studying marginal ice caps can therefore be valuable in several ways. The largest fringing ice cap in Greenland is Flade Isblink. Previous work has established that this ice cap is showing a range of dynamic behaviour, including subglacial lake drainage and varied patterns of mass-balance change. In particular, a substantial surge, assumed to be caused by a version of the thermally-regulated mechanism, occurred between 1996 and 2000, making the ice cap a useful case study for investigating this process. Here we investigate the surge on Flade Isblink using the open-source, Full-Stokes model Elmer/Ice to invert for basal conditions and englacial temperatures using the adjoint method. We specifically study steady-state conditions representative of the active surge phase in 2000, and the subsequent quiescent phase, using patterns of surface velocity observed in 2000, 2005, 2008 and 2015. Under constant geometry, temperature and geothermal heat, it is shown that surging increases basal freezing rates by over 60% across an area that is twice as large as the area over which the bed freezes in the quiescent phase. The process responsible for this

  16. Storm surge evolution and its relationship to climate oscillations at Duck, NC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munroe, Robert; Curtis, Scott

    2017-07-01

    Coastal communities experience increased vulnerability during storm surge events through the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, erosion/deposition, and the endangerment of human life. Policy and planning measures attempt to avoid or mitigate storm surge consequences through building codes and setbacks, beach stabilization, insurance rates, and coastal zoning. The coastal emergency management community and public react and respond on shorter time scales, through temporary protection, emergency stockpiling, and evacuation. This study utilizes time series analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Pearson's correlation, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem to make the connection between climate oscillation indices and storm surge characteristics intra-seasonally to inter-annually. Results indicate that an El Niño (+ENSO), negative phase of the NAO, and positive phase of the PNA pattern all support longer duration and hence more powerful surge events, especially in winter. Increased surge duration increases the likelihood of extensive erosion, inland inundation, among other undesirable effects of the surge hazard.

  17. 3D Simulation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Scenario Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王晓玲; 孙小沛; 张胜利; 孙蕊蕊; 李瑞金; 朱泽彪

    2016-01-01

    The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario (floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite ef-fects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ωand k-εmodels in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ωmodel coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity (100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.

  18. Effect of Hydraulic Accumulator on Pressure Surge of a Hydrostatic Transmission System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Ajit; Das, Jayanta; Dasgupta, Kabir; Barnwal, Manish Kumar

    2017-05-01

    Hydraulic power system is generally used in off-road vehicles for power transmission such as Heavy Earth Moving Machineries (HEMM). Their energy efficiency and unsubstantial failure becomes an extensive subject of analysis. Various arrangements in the system are compassed along with the utilization of some appropriate components. Application of a hydraulic accumulator is one among them. Benefits of accumulator is its multi-purpose usages like energy saving and pressure surge damping. This paper deals with the control of pressure surges in the hydraulic system and energy saving from the surges by using accumulator. For this purpose, the simulation of the hydraulic system is done in MATLAB/SimulinkR environment and an external disturbance is introduced to generate the pressure surge. The surge absorptivity of the accumulator is studied for different sizes at different pre-charged conditions of the accumulator. The discharge characteristics of different sized accumulators are also analyzed in this paper. It is observed that the ability to absorb the surge and stabilize the system is high in the smaller capacity accumulator. However the energy delivery time of larger sized accumulator is high.

  19. Reduction of the morning blood pressure surge treated with olmesartan in Chinese patients with mild to moderate essential hypertension--a multicenter, open-label, single treatment group clinical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Yuan; Ke, Yuannan; Sun, Ningling; Wang, Jiguang; Deng, Wude; Zhu, Junren

    2012-05-01

    To investigate the morning blood pressure surge (MBPS) in Chinese patients with mild to moderate essential hypertension treated with long-term administration of olmesartan, an angiotensin II receptor antagonist according to ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM). In a multi-center, prospective study, we investigated the long-term efficacy of olmesartan by ABPM in 18-75 years-old Chinese patients with mild to moderate hypertension (clinic diastolic blood pressure [DBP] 90-109 mm Hg and systolic blood pressure [SBP] olmesartan 20 mg once daily in the morning for 24 weeks. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring was conducted at baseline and at the end of 24 weeks. At baseline, patients with an MBPS > or = 23 mmHg were classified as the MBPS group (n = 41), and all other patients were classified as the non-MBPS group (n = 46). The mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures (SBP/DBP) over 24 hours were reduced from 141.78 +/- 12.8/91.17 +/- 7.34 to 128.35 +/- 15.86/83.58 +/- 9.53 mmHg (p olmesartan were significantly different between the two groups (p Olmesartan effectively reduces blood pressure in patients with essential hypertension, and olmesartan especially reduces the MBPS in MBPS-prone patients.

  20. Dynamic Hurricane Data Analysis Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knosp, Brian W.; Li, Peggy; Vu, Quoc A.

    2009-01-01

    A dynamic hurricane data analysis tool allows users of the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) to analyze data over a Web medium. The TCIS software is described in the previous article, Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) (NPO-45748). This tool interfaces with the TCIS database to pull in data from several different atmospheric and oceanic data sets, both observed by instruments. Users can use this information to generate histograms, maps, and profile plots for specific storms. The tool also displays statistical values for the user-selected parameter for the mean, standard deviation, median, minimum, and maximum values. There is little wait time, allowing for fast data plots over date and spatial ranges. Users may also zoom-in for a closer look at a particular spatial range. This is version 1 of the software. Researchers will use the data and tools on the TCIS to understand hurricane processes, improve hurricane forecast models and identify what types of measurements the next generation of instruments will need to collect.

  1. Hurricane Katrina-induced forest damage in relation to ecological factors at landscape scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fugui; Xu, Y Jun

    2009-09-01

    Forest stand stability to strong winds such as hurricanes has been found to be associated with a number of forest, soil and topography factors. In this study, through applying geographic information system (GIS) and logit regression, we assessed effects of forest characteristics and site conditions on pattern, severity and probability of Hurricane Katrina disturbance to forests in the Lower Pearl River Valley, USA. The factors included forest type, forest coverage, stand density, soil great group, elevation, slope, aspect, and stream buffer zone. Results showed that Hurricane Katrina damaged 60% of the total forested land in the region. The distribution and intensity of the hurricane disturbance varied across the landscape, with the bottomland hardwood forests on river floodplains most severely affected. All these factors had a variety of effects on vulnerability of the forests to the hurricane disturbance and thereby spatial patterns of the disturbance. Soil groups and stand factors including forest types, forest coverage and stand density contributed to 85% of accuracy in modeling the probability of the hurricane disturbance to forests in this region. Besides assessment of Katrina's damage, this study elucidates the great usefulness of remote sensing and GIS techniques combined with statistics modeling in assessment of large-scale risks of hurricane damage to coastal forests.

  2. A Case History Study of the Recycling Efforts from the United States Army Corps of Engineers Hurricane Katrina Debris Removal Mission in Mississippi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Leroy Brandon

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In support of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE managed the removal of Hurricane Katrina storm debris in several states. This paper focuses on the debris removal practices in 16 southern Mississippi counties and the recycling efforts. Debris was removed from public and private property. The debris included vegetation, construction material, electronic waste, vehicles, and vessels. The scope of the USACE mission was expanded several times. The scope within the respective counties varied from vegetation only to the removal of every eligible form of debris. The recommendations proposed should enhance recycling efforts during future debris removal missions.

  3. Earth Observation in aid of surge monitoring and forecasting: ESA's eSurge Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwood, Phillip; Cipollini, Paolo; Snaith, Helen; Høyer, Jacob; Dwyer, Ned; Dunne, Declan; Stoffelen, Ad; Donlon, Craig

    2013-04-01

    The understanding and realistic modelling of surges supports both preparation and mitigation activities and should eventually bring enormous societal benefits, especially to some of the world's poorest countries. Earth Observation data from satellites have an important role to play in storm surge monitoring and forecasting, but the full uptake of these data by the users (such as environmental agencies and tidal prediction centres) must be first encouraged by showcasing their usefulness, and then supported by providing easy access. The European Space Agency has recognized the above needs and, through its Data User Element (DUE) programme, has initiated in 2011 the eSurge project, whose aims are: a) to contribute through Earth Observation to an integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting as part of a wider optimal strategy for building an improved forecast and warning capability for coastal inundation; and b) to increase the use of the advanced capabilities of ESA and other satellite data for storm surge applications. The project is led by Logica UK, with NOC (UK), DMI (Denmark), CMRC (Ireland) and KNMI (Netherlands) as scientific partners. eSurge aims to provide easy access to a wide range of relevant data for a range of historical surge events, as well as performing a series of experiments to demonstrate the value of this data, and running workshops and training courses to help users make use of the available data. The eSurge database of Earth Observation and in situ measurements for past surge events is now publicly available. In 2013 the project moves into its service demonstration phase, adding more data and events, including a demonstration near real time service. The project works closely with its users in order to meet their needs and to maximise the return of this data. A novel dataset provided by eSurge is coastal altimetry. Coastal altimetry has a prominent role to play as it measures directly the total water level envelope

  4. Happily Ever After? Pre-and-Post Disaster Determinants of Happiness Among Survivors of Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, Rocío; Arcaya, Mariana; Baum, Christopher F.; Lowe, Sarah R.; Waters, Mary C.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated pre- to post-disaster changes in happiness of 491 women affected by Hurricane Katrina, and identified factors that were associated with the survivors’ happiness after the storm. Participants completed surveys approximately 1 year before and 1 and 4 years after the storm. The surveys collected information on the women’s happiness, social support, household characteristics, and hurricane exposure. We found that happiness significantly decreased from pre-disaster to 1 year post-disaster but there were no significant differences in happiness between the pre-disaster and 4 years post-disaster assessments. An exception were 38 women who continued to have lower levels of happiness 4 years post-disaster than at pre-disaster. These women were more likely to be living on their own after the storm and reported consistently lower levels of perceived social support from the community both before and after the storm than the other women of the sample. Factors associated with the survivor’s happiness after the storm included exposure to hurricane stressors and losing a loved one to the hurricane. These were predictive of lower happiness 1 year post-disaster. Four years after the hurricane only exposure to hurricane stressors was predictive of lower levels of happiness. In contrast, pre-disaster happiness and post-disaster social support were protective against the negative effect of the hurricane on survivors’ happiness. PMID:26078701

  5. Adverse respiratory symptoms and environmental exposures among children and adolescents following Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rath, Barbara; Young, Elizabeth A; Harris, Amy; Perrin, Keith; Bronfin, Daniel R; Ratard, Raoult; Vandyke, Russell; Goldshore, Matthew; Magnus, Manya

    2011-01-01

    Children and adolescents are especially vulnerable to environmental exposures and their respiratory effects. Following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, residents experienced multiple adverse environmental exposures. We characterized the association between upper respiratory symptoms (URS) and lower respiratory symptoms (LRS) and environmental exposures among children and adolescents affected by Hurricane Katrina. We conducted a cross-sectional study following the return of the population to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina (October 2005 and February 2006) among a convenience sample of children and adolescents attending New Orleans health facilities. We used uni-, bi-, and multivariable analyses to describe participants, exposures, and associations with URS/LRS. Of 1,243 participants, 47% were Caucasian, 50% were male, and 72% were younger than 11 years of age. Multiple environmental exposures were identified during and after the storm and at current residences: roof/glass/storm damage (50%), outside mold (22%), dust (18%), and flood damage (15%). Self-reported URS and LRS (76% and 36%, respectively) were higher after the hurricane than before the hurricane (22% and 9%, respectively, pHurricane Katrina experienced environmental exposures associated with increased prevalence of reported URS and LRS. Additional research is needed to investigate the long-term health impacts of Hurricane Katrina.

  6. Hurricane Katrina sediment slowed elevation loss in subsiding brackish marshes of the Mississippi River delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, K.L.; Cherry, J.A.

    2009-01-01

    Although hurricanes can damage or destroy coastal wetlands, they may play a beneficial role in reinvigorating marshes by delivering sediments that raise soil elevations and stimulate organic matter production. Hurricane Katrina altered elevation dynamics of two subsiding brackish marshes in the Mississippi River deltaic plain by adding 3 to 8 cm of sediment to the soil surface in August 2005. Soil elevations at both sites subsequently declined due to continued subsidence, but net elevation gain was still positive at both Pearl River (+1.7 cm) and Big Branch (+0.7 cm) marshes two years after the hurricane. At Big Branch where storm sediments had higher organic matter and water contents, post-storm elevation loss was more rapid due to initial compaction of the storm layer in combination with root-zone collapse. In contrast, elevation loss was slower at Pearl River where the storm deposit (high sand content) did not compact and the root zone did not collapse. Vegetation at both sites fully recovered within one year, and accumulation of root matter at Big Branch increased 10-fold from 2005 to 2006, suggesting that the hurricane stimulated belowground productivity. Results of this study imply that hurricane sediment may benefit subsiding marshes by slowing elevation loss. However, long-term effects of hurricane sediment on elevation dynamics will depend not only on the amount of sediment deposited, but on sediment texture and resistance to compaction as well as on changes in organic matter accumulation in the years following the hurricane.

  7. Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Siek

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.

  8. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk.

  9. Dynamics and Predictability of Hurricane Dolly (2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, J.; Zhang, F.; Weng, Y.

    2008-12-01

    Through several cloud-resolving simulations with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model, this study examines the dynamics and predictability of Hurricane Dolly (2008) with an emphasis on its initial development (around the time being declared as a tropical storm) and subsequent rapid intensification entering into the Gulf of Mexico. These WRF simulations include three that are directly initialized with the operational NCEP GFS analyses at 06, 12 and 18Z 20 July 2008, respectively (EXP06, EXP12, EXP18) and another the same as EXP06 except that the airborne Doppler velocity observations by a NOAA P3 aircraft during 12-15Z are assimilated with an ensemble-Kalman filter (ENKF06). Among the four experiments, only EXP06 fails to capture the rapid intensification and fails to develop the tropical storm into a mature hurricane. Preliminary comparison between the simulated fields of EXP06 and the GFS analysis at 12Z (e.g., IC of EXP12) indicates that large scale features favorable to the tropical cyclogenesis cannot be properly simulated in EXP06. The initial disturbance is rather weak positioned too far south-west that is far away from the primary convective. However, after the airborne radar data during 12-15Z are assimilated into the model, (from EXP06 into ENKF06), the ENKF06 simulation is greatly improved in that a well-organized warm-core vortex appears at the low level right after radar assimilation, which subsequently developed into a hurricane consistent with timing, track and intensity of observations. Interestingly, there are significant differences in the initial vortex position, structure and evolution among the three simulations (EXP12, EXP18, ENKF06) that all eventually develop a mature hurricane along the observed track (before landfall) with right timing after enters into the Gulf of Mexico. At 18Z 20 July, there is no apparent initial low-level cyclonic vortex in EXP12 and EXP18 (that is assimilated into ENKF06 due to radar observations

  10. Fuel for cyclones: The water vapor budget of a hurricane as dependent on its movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarieva, Anastassia M.; Gorshkov, Victor G.; Nefiodov, Andrei V.; Chikunov, Alexander V.; Sheil, Douglas; Nobre, Antonio Donato; Li, Bai-Lian

    2017-09-01

    Despite the dangers associated with tropical cyclones and their rainfall, the origin of the moisture in these storms, which include destructive hurricanes and typhoons, remains surprisingly uncertain. Existing studies have focused on the region 40-400 km from a cyclone's center. It is known that the rainfall within this area cannot be explained by local processes alone but requires imported moisture. Nonetheless, the dynamics of this imported moisture appears unknown. Here, considering a region up to three thousand kilometers from cyclone center, we analyze precipitation, atmospheric moisture and movement velocities for severe tropical cyclones - North Atlantic hurricanes. Our findings indicate that even over such large areas a hurricane's rainfall cannot be accounted for by concurrent evaporation. We propose instead that a hurricane consumes pre-existing atmospheric water vapor as it moves. The propagation velocity of the cyclone, i.e. the difference between its movement velocity and the mean velocity of the surrounding air (steering flow), determines the water vapor budget. Water vapor available to the hurricane through its movement makes the hurricane self-sufficient at about 700 km from the hurricane center obviating the need to concentrate moisture from greater distances. Such hurricanes leave a dry wake, whereby rainfall is suppressed by up to 40% compared to the local long-term mean. The inner radius of this dry footprint approximately coincides with the hurricane's radius of water self-sufficiency. We discuss how Carnot efficiency considerations do not constrain the power of such open systems. Our findings emphasize the incompletely understood role and importance of atmospheric moisture stocks and dynamics in the behavior of severe tropical cyclones.

  11. Towards Developing Science of Survival (SOS) Pamphlets for "Typhoon, Flashflood, Storm Surge and Tsunami" and for "Earthquakes and Their Aftermath": A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nivera, Gladys; Camacho, Vic Marie; Sia, Shila Rose; Avilla, Ruel; Butron, Benilda; Fernandez, Eisha Vienna; Pastor, Crist John; Reyes, Allan; Palomar, Brando

    2017-01-01

    The catastrophic devastation from recent natural calamities in the Philippines such as Typhoon Yolanda and Central Visayas earthquake in 2013 had made disaster preparedness a primary concern in the country. Prompted by the critical need to use science to save lives, this study developed Science of Survival (SOS) pamphlets titled "When the…

  12. 基于GIS技术的台风风暴潮灾害风险评估——以台州市为例%Typhoon storm surge risk assessment based on GIS——A case study of Taizhou

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郜志超; 于淼; 丁照东

    2012-01-01

    In the paper, the analysis of the characteristic and affect of the typhoon storm surge in the Taizhou was done. According to geography, meteorology and hydrology, economic, cultural and other characteristics in the coastal areas Taizhou, and in the support of the numerical model of typhoon storm surge, the risk assessment of typhoon storm surge of Taizbou based on Grid and GIS was realized. After modeling the typhoon storm surge risk assessment, the research on the typhoon storm surge disaster risk, vulnerability and capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation in the coastal area of Taizhou was made. In support of GIS technology and using the flood analysis, overlay analysis and grid computing, got the typhoon storm surge disaster risk zoning map of Taizhou with the high resolution on the remote sensing image. To wish this result could provide the help to reduce the loss of storm surge in China.%分析了台州市台风风暴潮灾害特征,根据台州市沿海区域的地理、水文、社会经济等特点,在台风风暴潮数值模型模拟基础上,实现了基于格网和GIS技术的台风风暴潮灾害风险评价.通过构建台风风暴潮灾害风险评价模型,对台州市区沿海地区的台风风暴潮灾害危险度、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力进行了分析,在GIS平台上进行淹没分析、叠置分析、以及格网拟合计算,最后绘制出了台州市台风风暴潮灾害高分辨率风险区划图,以期为我国风暴潮防灾减灾工作提供科学参考.

  13. Quantifying human mobility perturbation and resilience in Hurricane Sandy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qi; Taylor, John E

    2014-01-01

    Human mobility is influenced by environmental change and natural disasters. Researchers have used trip distance distribution, radius of gyration of movements, and individuals' visited locations to understand and capture human mobility patterns and trajectories. However, our knowledge of human movements during natural disasters is limited owing to both a lack of empirical data and the low precision of available data. Here, we studied human mobility using high-resolution movement data from individuals in New York City during and for several days after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. We found the human movements followed truncated power-law distributions during and after Hurricane Sandy, although the β value was noticeably larger during the first 24 hours after the storm struck. Also, we examined two parameters: the center of mass and the radius of gyration of each individual's movements. We found that their values during perturbation states and steady states are highly correlated, suggesting human mobility data obtained in steady states can possibly predict the perturbation state. Our results demonstrate that human movement trajectories experienced significant perturbations during hurricanes, but also exhibited high resilience. We expect the study will stimulate future research on the perturbation and inherent resilience of human mobility under the influence of hurricanes. For example, mobility patterns in coastal urban areas could be examined as hurricanes approach, gain or dissipate in strength, and as the path of the storm changes. Understanding nuances of human mobility under the influence of such disasters will enable more effective evacuation, emergency response planning and development of strategies and policies to reduce fatality, injury, and economic loss.

  14. Quantifying human mobility perturbation and resilience in Hurricane Sandy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Wang

    Full Text Available Human mobility is influenced by environmental change and natural disasters. Researchers have used trip distance distribution, radius of gyration of movements, and individuals' visited locations to understand and capture human mobility patterns and trajectories. However, our knowledge of human movements during natural disasters is limited owing to both a lack of empirical data and the low precision of available data. Here, we studied human mobility using high-resolution movement data from individuals in New York City during and for several days after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. We found the human movements followed truncated power-law distributions during and after Hurricane Sandy, although the β value was noticeably larger during the first 24 hours after the storm struck. Also, we examined two parameters: the center of mass and the radius of gyration of each individual's movements. We found that their values during perturbation states and steady states are highly correlated, suggesting human mobility data obtained in steady states can possibly predict the perturbation state. Our results demonstrate that human movement trajectories experienced significant perturbations during hurricanes, but also exhibited high resilience. We expect the study will stimulate future research on the perturbation and inherent resilience of human mobility under the influence of hurricanes. For example, mobility patterns in coastal urban areas could be examined as hurricanes approach, gain or dissipate in strength, and as the path of the storm changes. Understanding nuances of human mobility under the influence of such disasters will enable more effective evacuation, emergency response planning and development of strategies and policies to reduce fatality, injury, and economic loss.

  15. Increased Accuracy in Statistical Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nateghi, R.; Quiring, S. M.; Guikema, S. D.

    2012-12-01

    Hurricanes are among the costliest and most destructive natural hazards in the U.S. Accurate hurricane forecasts are crucial to optimal preparedness and mitigation decisions in the U.S. where 50 percent of the population lives within 50 miles of the coast. We developed a flexible statistical approach to forecast annual number of hurricanes in the Atlantic region during the hurricane season. Our model is based on the method of Random Forest and captures the complex relationship between hurricane activity and climatic conditions through careful variable selection, model testing and validation. We used the National Hurricane Center's Best Track hurricane data from 1949-2011 and sixty-one candidate climate descriptors to develop our model. The model includes information prior to the hurricane season, i.e., from the last three months of the previous year (Oct. through Dec.) and the first five months of the current year (January through May). Our forecast errors are substantially lower than other leading forecasts such as that of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

  16. Gulf Coast Hurricanes Situation Report #39

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2005-11-09

    There are 49,300 customers without power in Florida as of 7:00 AM EST 11/9 due to Hurricane Wilma, down from a peak of about 3.6 million customers. Currently, less than 1 percent of the customers are without power in the state. This is the last report we will due on outages due to Hurricane Wilma.

  17. Satellite sar detection of hurricane helene (2006)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ju, Lian; Cheng, Yongcun; Xu, Qing;

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, the wind structure of hurricane Helene (2006) over the Atlantic Ocean is investigated from a C-band RADARSAT-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image acquired on 20 September 2006. First, the characteristics, e.g., the center, scale and area of the hurricane eye (HE) are determined...

  18. Hurricane impacts on US forest carbon sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven G. McNulty

    2002-01-01

    Recent focus has been given to US forests as a sink for increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Current estimates of US Forest carbon sequestration average approximately 20 Tg (i.e. 1012 g) year. However, predictions of forest carbon sequestration often do not include the influence of hurricanes on forest carbon storage. Intense hurricanes...

  19. Combined effects of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Gustav on the mental health of mothers of small children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harville, E W; Xiong, X; Smith, B W; Pridjian, G; Elkind-Hirsch, K; Buekens, P

    2011-05-01

    Few studies have assessed the results of multiple exposures to disaster. Our objective was to examine the effect of experiencing Hurricane Gustav on mental health of women previously exposed to Hurricane Katrina. A total of 102 women from Southern Louisiana were interviewed by telephone. Experience of the hurricanes was assessed with questions about injury, danger and damage, while depression was assessed with the Edinburgh Depression Scale and post-traumatic stress disorder using the Post-Traumatic Checklist. Minor stressors, social support, trait resilience and perceived benefit had been measured previously. Mental health was examined with linear and log-linear models. Women who had a severe experience of both Gustav and Katrina scored higher on the mental health scales, but finding new ways to cope after Katrina or feeling more prepared was not protective. About half the population had better mental health scores after Gustav than at previous measures. Improvement was more likely among those who reported high social support or low levels of minor stressors, or were younger. Trait resilience mitigated the effect of hurricane exposure. Multiple disaster experiences are associated with worse mental health overall, although many women are resilient. Perceiving benefit after the first disaster was not protective. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing.

  20. Combined effects of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Gustav on the mental health of mothers of small children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harville, Emily W.; Xiong, Xu; Smith, Bruce W.; Pridjian, Gabriella; Elkind-Hirsch, Karen; Buekens, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    Few studies assessed the results of multiple exposures to disaster. Our objective was to examine the effect of experiencing Hurricane Gustav on mental health of women previously exposed to Hurricane Katrina. 102 women from Southern Louisiana were interviewed by telephone. Experience of the hurricanes was assessed with questions about injury, danger, and damage, while depression was assessed with the Edinburgh Depression Scale and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) using the Post-traumatic Checklist. Minor stressors, social support, trait resilience, and perceived benefit had been measured previously. Mental health was examined with linear and log-linear models. Women who had a severe experience of both Gustav and Katrina scored higher on the mental health scales, but finding new ways to cope after Katrina or feeling more prepared was not protective. About half the population had better mental health scores after Gustav than at previous measures. Improvement was more likely among those who reported high social support or low levels of minor stressors, or were younger. Trait resilience mitigated the effect of hurricane exposure. Multiple disaster experiences are associated with worse mental health overall, though many women are resilient. Perceiving benefit after the first disaster was not protective. PMID:21418428

  1. Learning from traffic data collected before, during and after a hurricane

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Archibald

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Hurricanes harm people and damage property through extreme wind speeds and flooding associated with heavy rains and storm surge. One of the most effective and widely used tactics to protect people from hurricanes is evacuation. Improved knowledge of the behavior of communities before, during and after an evacuation can better support emergency planning and operations, and thus help make evacuations safer and more efficient. The objective of this work is to identify ways to use traffic data to better understand evacuation behavior and to explore ways to integrate traffic data into evacuation planning and response. Traffic data collected in Delaware before, during and after Hurricane Irene in August 2011 using automated traffic recorders are assembled and analyzed. The analysis shows that a significant number of residents and visitors evacuated from the beach communities and the evacuation patterns are very similar to the traffic patterns experienced on summer weekends. These insights suggest that this type of analysis may also be of value for other events in other communities.

  2. Nephrologic Impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in Areas Not Directly Affected.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossabhoy, Neville R; Qadri, Mashood; Beal, Lauren M

    2015-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita resulted in enormous loss of life and disrupted the delivery of health care in areas affected by them. In causing mass movements of patients, natural disasters can overwhelm the resources of nephrology communities in areas not suffering direct damage. The following largely personal account evaluates the impact these hurricanes had upon the nephrology community, patients and health care providers alike, in areas not directly affected by the storms. Mass evacuation of hundreds of dialysis patients to surrounding areas overwhelmed the capacity of local hemodialysis centers. Non-availability of medical records in patients arriving without a supply of their routine medications led to confusion and sub-optimal treatment of conditions such as hypertension and congestive heart failure. Availability of cadaveric organs for transplantation was reduced in the surrounding areas, as the usual lines of communication and transportation were severed for several weeks. All of these issues led to prolong waiting times for patients on the transplant list. The hurricanes severely disrupted usual supply lines of medications to hospitals; certain rare conditions may be seen in higher numbers as a result of the shortages induced. We present the interesting surge in cases of acute kidney injury secondary to use of intravenous immune globulin.

  3. Impact of a major hurricane on surgical services in a university hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norcross, E D; Elliott, B M; Adams, D B; Crawford, F A

    1993-01-01

    Hurricane Hugo struck Charleston, South Carolina, on September 21, 1989. This report analyzes the impact this storm had upon surgical care at a university medical center. Although disaster planning began on September 17, hurricane damage by high winds and an 8.7-foot tidal surge led to loss of emergency power and water. Consequently, system failures occurred in air conditioning, vacuum suction, steam and ethylene oxide sterilization, plumbing, central paging, lighting, and refrigeration. The following surgical support services were affected. In the blood bank, lack of refrigeration meant no platelet packs for 2 days. In radiology, loss of electrical power damaged CT/MRI scanners and flooding ruined patient files, resulting in lost information. In the intensive care unit, loss of electricity meant no monitors and hand ventilation was used for 4 hours. In the operating room, lack of temperature and humidity control (steam, water, and suction supply) halted elective surgery until October 2. Ground and air transportation were limited by unsafe landing sites, impassable roads, and personnel exhaustion. Surgical planning for a major hurricane should include: 1) a fail-safe source of electrical power, 2) evacuation of as many critically ill patients as possible before the storm, 3) cancellation of all elective surgery, and 4) augmented ancillary service staffing with some, although limited, physician support.

  4. Children, Learning and Chronic Natural Disasters: How Does the Government of Dominica Address Education during Low-Intensity Hurricanes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrant, Ted Donaldson

    2013-01-01

    By the time today's Grade K students graduate high school in the Commonwealth of Dominica, they will have experienced five major and many low-intensity hurricanes (LIH). Between August and November each year, each hurricane, major or low-intensity, represents a major threat to their safety and schooling. This mixed-method case study investigated…

  5. The Impact of Child-Related Stressors on the Psychological Functioning of Lower-Income Mothers after Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Sarah R.; Chan, Christian S.; Rhodes, Jean E.

    2011-01-01

    In the present study, the authors examined the role of child-related stressors in the psychological adjustment of lower-income, primarily unmarried and African American, mothers (N = 386). All participants lived in areas affected by Hurricane Katrina, and about a third were also exposed to Hurricane Rita (30.3%, n = 117). Lacking knowledge of a…

  6. Effects of post-hurricane fertilization and debris removal on earthworm abundance and biomass in subtropical forests in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grizelle Gonzalez; Y. Li; X. Zou

    2007-01-01

    Hurricanes are a common disturbance in the Caribbean, striking the island of Puerto Rico on average every 21 years. Hurricane Hugo (1989) distributed the canopy litter onto the forest floor changing the chemistry and quantity of litter inputs to the soil. In this study, we determined the effect of inorganic fertilization on earthworm abundance, biomass, and species...

  7. The Impact of Child-Related Stressors on the Psychological Functioning of Lower-Income Mothers after Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Sarah R.; Chan, Christian S.; Rhodes, Jean E.

    2011-01-01

    In the present study, the authors examined the role of child-related stressors in the psychological adjustment of lower-income, primarily unmarried and African American, mothers (N = 386). All participants lived in areas affected by Hurricane Katrina, and about a third were also exposed to Hurricane Rita (30.3%, n = 117). Lacking knowledge of a…

  8. Motivational Factors Underlying College Students' Decisions to Resume Their Educational Pursuits in the Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Theresa M.; Herlihy, Barbara

    2009-01-01

    This study explored college student persistence at a historically Black university affected by Hurricane Katrina. Predictor variables including sex, residence status, Pell Grant status, campus housing status, college grade point average, attendance before Hurricane Katrina, and attendance at the university by parents or another close relative were…

  9. Genesis of tornadoes associated with hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentry, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    The climatological history of hurricane-tornadoes is brought up to date through 1982. Most of the tornadoes either form near the center of the hurricane, from the outer edge of the eyewall outward, or in an area between north and east-southeast of the hurricane center. The blackbody temperatures of the cloud tops which were analyzed for several hurricane-tornadoes that formed in the years 1974, 1975, and 1979, did not furnish strong precursor signals of tornado formation, but followed one of two patterns: either the temperatures were very low, or the tornado formed in areas of strong temperature gradients. Tornadoes with tropical cyclones most frequently occur at 1200-1800 LST, and although most are relatively weak, they can reach the F3 intensity level. Most form in association with the outer rainbands of the hurricane.

  10. A Perspective on Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge from Southern and Eastern Africa: A Case Study Near Durban, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek D. Stretch

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent coastal storms in southern Africa have highlighted the need for more proactive management of the coastline. Within the southern and eastern African region the availability of coastal information is poor. The greatest gap in information is the likely effects of a combination of severe sea storms and future sea level rise (SLR on the shoreline. This lack of information creates a barrier to informed decision making. This research outlines a practical localized approach to this problem, which can be applied as a first order assessment within the region. In so doing it provides a cost effective and simple decision support tool for the built environment and disaster professionals in development and disaster assessments. In a South African context the newly promulgated Integrated Coastal Management Act requires that all proposed coastal developments take into consideration future SLR, however such information currently does not exist, despite it being vital for informed planning in the coastal zone. This practical approach has been applied to the coastline of Durban, South Africa as a case study. The outputs are presented in a Geographic Information System (GIS based freeware viewer tool enabling ease of access to both professionals and laypersons. This demonstrates that a simple approach can provide valuable information about the current and future risk of flooding and coastal erosion under climate change to buildings, infrastructure as well as natural features along the coast.

  11. The Associations between Loss and Posttraumatic Stress and Depressive Symptoms Following Hurricane Ike

    OpenAIRE

    Paul, Lisa A.; Price, Matthew; Gros, Daniel F.; Gros, Kirstin Stauffacher; McCauley, Jenna L.; Resnick, Heidi S.; Acierno, Ron; Ruggiero, Kenneth J.

    2013-01-01

    Disasters can have wide-ranging effects on individuals and their communities. Loss of specific resources (e.g., household contents, job) following a disaster has not been well studied, despite the implications for preparedness efforts and post-disaster interventions. The present study used random-digit-dial methodology to recruit hurricane-affected adults from Galveston and Chambers, TX, counties one year after Hurricane Ike. Data from 1,249 survivors were analyzed to identify predictors of d...

  12. Lightning and radar observations of hurricane Rita landfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henderson, Bradley G [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Suszcynsky, David M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hamlin, Timothy E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Jeffery, C A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Wiens, Kyle C [TEXAS TECH U.; Orville, R E [TEXAS A& M

    2009-01-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) owns and operates an array of Very-Low Frequency (VLF) sensors that measure the Radio-Frequency (RF) waveforms emitted by Cloud-to-Ground (CG) and InCloud (IC) lightning. This array, the Los Alamos Sferic Array (LASA), has approximately 15 sensors concentrated in the Great Plains and Florida, which detect electric field changes in a bandwidth from 200 Hz to 500 kHz (Smith et al., 2002). Recently, LANL has begun development of a new dual-band RF sensor array that includes the Very-High Frequency (VHF) band as well as the VLF. Whereas VLF lightning emissions can be used to deduce physical parameters such as lightning type and peak current, VHF emissions can be used to perform precise 3d mapping of individual radiation sources, which can number in the thousands for a typical CG flash. These new dual-band sensors will be used to monitor lightning activity in hurricanes in an effort to better predict intensification cycles. Although the new LANL dual-band array is not yet operational, we have begun initial work utilizing both VLF and VHF lightning data to monitor hurricane evolution. In this paper, we present the temporal evolution of Rita's landfall using VLF and VHF lightning data, and also WSR-88D radar. At landfall, Rita's northern eyewall experienced strong updrafts and significant lightning activity that appear to mark a transition between oceanic hurricane dynamics and continental thunderstorm dynamics. In section 2, we give a brief overview of Hurricane Rita, including its development as a hurricane and its lightning history. In the following section, we present WSR-88D data of Rita's landfall, including reflectivity images and temporal variation. In section 4, we present both VHF and VLF lightning data, overplotted on radar reflectivity images. Finally, we discuss our observations, including a comparison to previous studies and a brief conclusion.

  13. 基于情景的上海台风风暴潮淹没模拟研究%Flood Simulation Study of Typhoon Storm Surge Based on Scenarios in Shanghai

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    殷杰; 尹占娥; 于大鹏; 许世远

    2013-01-01

    Storm surges from tropical cyclones, as one of the most devastating natural hazards in Shanghai, have caused considerable personal injury and property damage in the history. A scenario-based study that investigated the storm induced flood potentials in Shanghai coastal area was conducted. Based on the probability analysis for several gauge stations, the findings show that due to the high standard seawall, it is less likely to occur overtopping inundation in the short term. Therefore, two vulnerable sections of seawall and six kinds of storm surge barrier bursts scenarios were built. Comparing the local land elevation with the flood levels of different return periods, flood scenarios with return periods of 20, 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000 years were designed to cover the probable situations. The shape of the flow hydrographs at the boundary gauging stations for various return periods was derived based on 9711 typhoon induced flood event where hourly flow boundary conditions were available. To reduce the computational costs of the simulation, the design flood scenarios were represented with 20 hours tidal hydrographs, which include two rising phases and two falling limbs. The topographic contours (0.5 m intervals) of Shanghai were interpolated to generate a DEM with a grid cell resolution of 50 m. These provided the flow and topographic boundary conditions for the model simulations. A well-established 2D flood numerical model (FloodMap) was used to predict the flood dynamics and inundation process. Subsequent analysis using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) was employed to illustrate the spatial and temporal distribution of flood-prone areas under different scenarios. The results indicated that, 1) maximum inundation depths were reached in all simulations at approximately the second to third hour, decreasing afterwards as the stage recedes. 2) Inundation area for each scenario increased throughout the simulation, even during the receding limb of the hydrograph. 3

  14. Hurricane Katrina deaths, Louisiana, 2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunkard, Joan; Namulanda, Gonza; Ratard, Raoult

    2008-12-01

    Hurricane Katrina struck the US Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005, causing unprecedented damage to numerous communities in Louisiana and Mississippi. Our objectives were to verify, document, and characterize Katrina-related mortality in Louisiana and help identify strategies to reduce mortality in future disasters. We assessed Hurricane Katrina mortality data sources received in 2007, including Louisiana and out-of-state death certificates for deaths occurring from August 27 to October 31, 2005, and the Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Team's confirmed victims' database. We calculated age-, race-, and sex-specific mortality rates for Orleans, St Bernard, and Jefferson Parishes, where 95% of Katrina victims resided and conducted stratified analyses by parish of residence to compare differences between observed proportions of victim demographic characteristics and expected values based on 2000 US Census data, using Pearson chi square and Fisher exact tests. We identified 971 Katrina-related deaths in Louisiana and 15 deaths among Katrina evacuees in other states. Drowning (40%), injury and trauma (25%), and heart conditions (11%) were the major causes of death among Louisiana victims. Forty-nine percent of victims were people 75 years old and older. Fifty-three percent of victims were men; 51% were black; and 42% were white. In Orleans Parish, the mortality rate among blacks was 1.7 to 4 times higher than that among whites for all people 18 years old and older. People 75 years old and older were significantly more likely to be storm victims (P Hurricane Katrina was the deadliest hurricane to strike the US Gulf Coast since 1928. Drowning was the major cause of death and people 75 years old and older were the most affected population cohort. Future disaster preparedness efforts must focus on evacuating and caring for vulnerable populations, including those in hospitals, long-term care facilities, and personal residences. Improving mortality reporting timeliness will

  15. Probabilistic modelling of sea surges in coastal urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiadis, Stylianos; Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Hjalte; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Nielsen, Bo Friis

    2016-04-01

    Urban floods are a major issue for coastal cities with severe impacts on economy, society and environment. A main cause for floods are sea surges stemming from extreme weather conditions. In the context of urban flooding, certain standards have to be met by critical infrastructures in order to protect them from floods. These standards can be so strict that no empirical data is available. For instance, protection plans for sub-surface railways against floods are established with 10,000 years return levels. Furthermore, the long technical lifetime of such infrastructures is a critical issue that should be considered, along with the associated climate change effects in this lifetime. We present a case study of Copenhagen where the metro system is being expanded at present with several stations close to the sea. The current critical sea levels for the metro have never been exceeded and Copenhagen has only been severely flooded from pluvial events in the time where measurements have been conducted. However, due to the very high return period that the metro has to be able to withstand and due to the expectations to sea-level rise due to climate change, reliable estimates of the occurrence rate and magnitude of sea surges have to be established as the current protection is expected to be insufficient at some point within the technical lifetime of the metro. The objective of this study is to probabilistically model sea level in Copenhagen as opposed to extrapolating the extreme statistics as is the practice often used. A better understanding and more realistic description of the phenomena leading to sea surges can then be given. The application of hidden Markov models to high-resolution data of sea level for different meteorological stations in and around Copenhagen is an effective tool to address uncertainty. For sea surge studies, the hidden states of the model may reflect the hydrological processes that contribute to coastal floods. Also, the states of the hidden Markov

  16. Simulating Turbulent Wind Fields for Offshore Turbines in Hurricane-Prone Regions (Poster)