Examining the value of global seasonal reference evapotranspiration forecasts tosupport FEWS NET's food insecurity outlooks

Science.gov (United States)

Shukla, S.; McEvoy, D.; Hobbins, M.; Husak, G. J.; Huntington, J. L.; Funk, C.; Verdin, J.; Macharia, D.

2017-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) team provides food insecurity outlooks for several developing countries in Africa, Central Asia, and Central America. Thus far in terms of agroclimatic conditions that influence food insecurity, FEWS NET's primary focus has been on the seasonal precipitation forecasts while not adequately accounting for the atmospheric evaporative demand, which is also directly related to agricultural production and hence food insecurity, and is most often estimated by reference evapotranspiration (ETo). This presentation reports on the development of a new global ETo seasonal reforecast and skill evaluation with a particular emphasis on the potential use of this dataset by the FEWS NET to support food insecurity early warning. The ETo reforecasts span the 1982-2009 period and are calculated following ASCE's formulation of Penman-Monteith method driven by seasonal climate forecasts of monthly mean temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation from NCEP's CFSv2 and NASA's GEOS-5 models. The skill evaluation using deterministic and probabilistic scores focuses on the December-February (DJF), March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and September-November (SON) seasons. The results indicate that ETo forecasts are a promising tool for early warning of drought and food insecurity. The FEWS NET regions with promising level of skill (correlation >0.35 at lead times of 3 months) include Northern Sub-Saharan Africa (DJF, dry season), Central America (DJF, dry season), parts of East Africa (JJA, wet Season), Southern Africa (JJA, dry season), and Central Asia (MAM, wet season). A case study over parts of East Africa for the JJA season shows that, in combination with the precipitation forecasts, ETo forecasts could have provided early warning of recent severe drought events (e.g., 2002, 2004, 2009) that contributed to substantial food insecurity in the region.

Petroleum product market outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-09-01

The influence of petroleum market disturbances on price increases was discussed with particular reference to Hurricane Katrina and the loss of refinery production and damage to oil infrastructure in the United States. The supply of petroleum products in Canada will be very tight heading into the winter of 2006, despite the fact that Canadian refineries are operating at full capacity to ensure an adequate supply of gasoline and diesel fuel for consumers. In addition to refinery production, petroleum supplies are also determined by the adequacy of inventories and the efficiency of the infrastructure in place to deliver products to where they are needed. The lack of spare capacity has reduced the flexibility of the North American refining system to respond to further disruptions. Refiners were asked to provide information on 4 areas of their operations in order for Natural Resources Canada to analyze the short-term outlook for petroleum products markets. The 4 areas included refinery utilization rates and capability to increase production; any planned refinery turnaround that would affect petroleum product supplies; inventory levels compared to levels in previous years; and, any logistical problems that could affect product distribution. A graph depicting the relationship between Canadian production of gasoline and domestic sales clearly illustrated the seasonal nature of gasoline consumption and that production in Canada is much higher than consumption. Canada exports large volumes of gasoline, primarily to the United States eastern seabord from refineries in Atlantic Canada. The trend is similar for diesel fuel. Demand for both gasoline and diesel is expected to continue to grow in 2005 as high prices have had a limited impact on demand growth. In general, the Ontario/Quebec region is short of gasoline and must import gasoline during the summer months to cover the shortfall. It was noted that motorists and homeowners who heat with oil will bear the burden of higher

Data and Geocomputation: Time Critical Mission Support for the 2017 Hurricane Season

Science.gov (United States)

Bhaduri, B. L.; Tuttle, M.; Rose, A.; Sanyal, J.; Thakur, G.; White, D.; Yang, H. H.; Laverdiere, M.; Whitehead, M.; Taylor, H.; Jacob, M.

2017-12-01

A strong spatial data infrastructure and geospatial analysis capabilities are nucleus to the decision-making process during emergency preparedness, response, and recovery operations. For over a decade, the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been developing critical data and analytical capabilities that provide the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the rest of the federal response community assess and evaluate impacts of natural hazards on population and critical infrastructures including the status of the national electricity and oil and natural gas networks. These capabilities range from identifying structures or buildings from very high-resolution satellite imagery, utilizing machine learning and high-performance computing, to daily assessment of electricity restoration highlighting changes in nighttime lights for the impacted region based on the analysis of NOAA JPSS VIIRS Day/Night Band (DNB) imagery. This presentation will highlight our time critical mission support efforts for the 2017 hurricane season that witnessed unprecedented devastation from hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. ORNL provided 90m resolution LandScan USA population distribution data for identifying vulnerable population as well as structure (buildings) data extracted from 1m imagery for damage assessment. Spatially accurate data for solid waste facilities were developed and delivered to the response community. Human activity signatures were assessed from large scale collection of open source social media data around points of interests (POI) to ascertain level of destruction. The electricity transmission system was monitored in real time from data integration from hundreds of utilities and electricity outage information were provided back to the response community via standardized web-services.

A review of multimodel superensemble forecasting for weather, seasonal climate, and hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, V.; Simon, A.; Bhardwaj, A.; Ghosh, T.; Ross, R.

2016-06-01

This review provides a summary of work in the area of ensemble forecasts for weather, climate, oceans, and hurricanes. This includes a combination of multiple forecast model results that does not dwell on the ensemble mean but uses a unique collective bias reduction procedure. A theoretical framework for this procedure is provided, utilizing a suite of models that is constructed from the well-known Lorenz low-order nonlinear system. A tutorial that includes a walk-through table and illustrates the inner workings of the multimodel superensemble's principle is provided. Systematic errors in a single deterministic model arise from a host of features that range from the model's initial state (data assimilation), resolution, representation of physics, dynamics, and ocean processes, local aspects of orography, water bodies, and details of the land surface. Models, in their diversity of representation of such features, end up leaving unique signatures of systematic errors. The multimodel superensemble utilizes as many as 10 million weights to take into account the bias errors arising from these diverse features of multimodels. The design of a single deterministic forecast models that utilizes multiple features from the use of the large volume of weights is provided here. This has led to a better understanding of the error growths and the collective bias reductions for several of the physical parameterizations within diverse models, such as cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer physics, and radiative transfer. A number of examples for weather, seasonal climate, hurricanes and sub surface oceanic forecast skills of member models, the ensemble mean, and the superensemble are provided.

Danger and dementia: caregiver experiences and shifting social roles during a highly active hurricane season.

Science.gov (United States)

Christensen, Janelle J; Castañeda, Heide

2014-01-01

This study examined disaster preparedness and decision-making by caregivers of community-dwelling persons diagnosed with Alzheimer's or a related dementia (ADRD). Interviews were conducted with 20 caregivers in South Florida. Twelve of these interviews include caregiving experiences during the highly active 2004-2005 hurricane seasons. Results indicate that persons in earlier stages of ADRD can, and often do, remain engaged in the disaster preparation and planning process. However, during the early stages, persons may also resist evacuation, even if the caregiver felt it was necessary. During later stages of the disease, caregivers reported less resistance to disaster-related decisions, however, with the tradeoff of less ability to assist with preparation.

Saharan Dust, Transport Processes, and Possible Impacts on Hurricane Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, K. M.

2010-01-01

In this paper, we present observational evidence of significant relationships between Saharan dust outbreak, and African Easterly wave activities and hurricane activities. We found two dominant paths of transport of Saharan dust: a northern path, centered at 25degN associated with eastward propagating 6-19 days waves over northern Africa, and a southern path centered at 15degN, associated with the AEW, and the Atlantic ITCZ. Seasons with stronger dust outbreak from the southern path are associated with a drier atmosphere over the Maximum Development Region (MDR) and reduction in tropical cyclone and hurricane activities in the MDR. Seasons with stronger outbreak from the northern path are associated with a cooler N. Atlantic, and suppressed hurricane in the western Atlantic basin.

Forecasted Flood Depth Grids Providing Early Situational Awareness to FEMA during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, M.; Longenecker, H. E., III

2017-12-01

The 2017 hurricane season brought the unprecedented landfall of three Category 4 hurricanes (Harvey, Irma and Maria). FEMA is responsible for coordinating the federal response and recovery efforts for large disasters such as these. FEMA depends on timely and accurate depth grids to estimate hazard exposure, model damage assessments, plan flight paths for imagery acquisition, and prioritize response efforts. In order to produce riverine or coastal depth grids based on observed flooding, the methodology requires peak crest water levels at stream gauges, tide gauges, high water marks, and best-available elevation data. Because peak crest data isn't available until the apex of a flooding event and high water marks may take up to several weeks for field teams to collect for a large-scale flooding event, final observed depth grids are not available to FEMA until several days after a flood has begun to subside. Within the last decade NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) has implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS), a web-based suite of accurate forecast products that provide hydrograph forecasts at over 3,500 stream gauge locations across the United States. These forecasts have been newly implemented into an automated depth grid script tool, using predicted instead of observed water levels, allowing FEMA access to flood hazard information up to 3 days prior to a flooding event. Water depths are calculated from the AHPS predicted flood stages and are interpolated at 100m spacing along NHD hydrolines within the basin of interest. A water surface elevation raster is generated from these water depths using an Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation. Then, elevation (USGS NED 30m) is subtracted from the water surface elevation raster so that the remaining values represent the depth of predicted flooding above the ground surface. This automated process requires minimal user input and produced forecasted depth grids that were comparable to post

A Look Inside Hurricane Alma

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific started off with a whimper late last month as Alma, a Category 2 hurricane, slowly made its way up the coast of Baja California, packing sustained winds of 110 miles per hour and gusts of 135 miles per hour. The above image of the hurricane was acquired on May 29, 2002, and displays the rainfall rates occurring within the storm. Click the image above to see an animated data visualization (3.8 MB) of the interior of Hurricane Alma. The images of the clouds seen at the beginning of the movie were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's (NOAA's) Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite (GOES) network. As the movie continues, the clouds are peeled away to reveal an image of rainfall levels in the hurricane. The rainfall data were obtained by the Precipitation Radar aboard NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The Precipitation Radar bounces radio waves off of clouds to retrieve a reading of the number of large, rain-sized droplets within the clouds. Using these data, scientists can tell how much precipitation is occurring within and beneath a hurricane. In the movie, yellow denotes areas where 0.5 inches of rain is falling per hour, green denotes 1 inch per hour, and red denotes over 2 inches per hour. (Please note that high resolution still images of Hurricane Alma are available in the NASA Visible Earth in TIFF format.) Image and animation courtesy Lori Perkins, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

Recent Atlantic Hurricanes, Pacific Super Typhoons, and Tropical Storm Awareness in Underdeveloped Island and Coastal Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Plondke, D. L.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. in 12 years. The next tropical storm in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was Hurricane Irma, a category 5 storm and the strongest storm to strike the U.S. mainland since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. These two storms were the third and fourth in a sequence of 10 consecutive storms to reach hurricane status in this season that ranks at least seventh among the most active seasons as measured by the Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. Assessment of damage from Harvey may prove it to be the costliest storm in U.S. history, approaching $190 billion. Irma was the first category 5 hurricane to hit the Leeward Islands, devastating island environments including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Barbuda, Saint Barthelemy, and Anguilla with sustained winds reaching at times 185 mph. Together with the two super typhoons of the 2017 Pacific season, Noru and Lan, the two Atlantic hurricanes rank among the strongest, longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record. How many more billions of dollars will be expended in recovery and reconstruction efforts following future mega-disasters comparable to those of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma? Particularly on Caribbean and tropical Pacific islands with specialized and underdeveloped economies, aging and substandard infrastructure often cannot even partially mitigate against the impacts of major hurricanes. The most frequently used measurements of storm impact are insufficient to assess the economic impact. Analysis of the storm tracks and periods of greatest storm intensity of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and Super Typhoons Lan and Noru, in spatial relationship with island and coastal administrative regions, shows that rainfall totals, flooded area estimates, and property/infrastructure damage dollar estimates are all quantitative indicators of storm impact, but do not measure the costs that result from lack of storm preparedness and education of residents

Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Kiju; Shavitt, Sharon; Viswanathan, Madhu; Hilbe, Joseph M

2014-06-17

Do people judge hurricane risks in the context of gender-based expectations? We use more than six decades of death rates from US hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes. Laboratory experiments indicate that this is because hurricane names lead to gender-based expectations about severity and this, in turn, guides respondents' preparedness to take protective action. This finding indicates an unfortunate and unintended consequence of the gendered naming of hurricanes, with important implications for policymakers, media practitioners, and the general public concerning hurricane communication and preparedness.

Hurricane Wind Vector Estimates from WindSat Polarimetric Radiometer

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Adams, Ian S; Hennon, Christopther C; Jones, W. L; Ahmad, Khalil

2005-01-01

.... In late 2004, the first preliminary oceanic wind vector results were released, and this paper presents the first evaluation of this product for several Atlantic hurricanes during the 2003 season...

Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, S. S.

2017-12-01

The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

An evaluation of soil water outlooks for winter wheat in south-eastern Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Western, A. W.; Dassanayake, K. B.; Perera, K. C.; Alves, O.; Young, G.; Argent, R.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Soil moisture is a key limiting resource for rain-fed cropping in Australian broad-acre cropping zones. Seasonal rainfall and temperature outlooks are standard operational services offered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and are routinely used to support agricultural decisions. This presentation examines the performance of proposed soil water seasonal outlooks in the context of wheat cropping in south-eastern Australia (autumn planting, late spring harvest). We used weather ensembles simulated by the Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), as input to the Agricultural Production Simulator (APSIM) to construct ensemble soil water "outlooks" at twenty sites. Hindcasts were made over a 33 year period using the 33 POAMA ensemble members. The overall modelling flow involved: 1. Downscaling of the daily weather series (rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, humidity, radiation) from the ~250km POAMA grid scale to a local weather station using quantile-quantile correction. This was based on a 33 year observation record extracted from the SILO data drill product. 2. Using APSIM to produce soil water ensembles from the downscaled weather ensembles. A warm up period of 5 years of observed weather was followed by a 9 month hindcast period based on each ensemble member. 3. The soil water ensembles were summarized by estimating the proportion of outlook ensembles in each climatological tercile, where the climatology was constructed using APSIM and observed weather from the 33 years of hindcasts at the relevant site. 4. The soil water outlooks were evaluated for different lead times and months using a "truth" run of APSIM based on observed weather. Outlooks generally have useful some forecast skill for lead times of up to two-three months, except late spring; in line with current useful lead times for rainfall outlooks. Better performance was found in summer and autumn when vegetation cover and water use is low.

Mangrove forest recovery in the Everglades following Hurricane Wilma

Science.gov (United States)

Sarmiento, Daniel; Barr, Jordan; Engel, Vic; Fuentes, Jose D.; Smith, Thomas J.; Zieman, Jay C.

2009-01-01

On October 24th, 2005, Hurricane Wilma made landfall on the south western shore of the Florida peninsula. This major disturbance destroyed approximately 30 percent of the mangrove forests in the area. However, the damage to the ecosystem following the hurricane provided researchers at the Florida Coastal Everglades (FCE) LTER site with the rare opportunity to track the recovery process of the mangroves as determined by carbon dioxide (CO2) and energy exchanges, measured along daily and seasonal time scales.

Climate Prediction Center - Forecasts & Outlook Maps, Graphs and Tables

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News list below The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is responsible for issuing seasonal climate outlook maps , and National Centers for Environmental Prediction). These weather and climate products comprise the

GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal

High Resolution Modeling of Hurricanes in a Climate Context

Science.gov (United States)

Knutson, T. R.

2007-12-01

Modeling of tropical cyclone activity in a climate context initially focused on simulation of relatively weak tropical storm-like disturbances as resolved by coarse grid (200 km) global models. As computing power has increased, multi-year simulations with global models of grid spacing 20-30 km have become feasible. Increased resolution also allowed for simulation storms of increasing intensity, and some global models generate storms of hurricane strength, depending on their resolution and other factors, although detailed hurricane structure is not simulated realistically. Results from some recent high resolution global model studies are reviewed. An alternative for hurricane simulation is regional downscaling. An early approach was to embed an operational (GFDL) hurricane prediction model within a global model solution, either for 5-day case studies of particular model storm cases, or for "idealized experiments" where an initial vortex is inserted into an idealized environments derived from global model statistics. Using this approach, hurricanes up to category five intensity can be simulated, owing to the model's relatively high resolution (9 km grid) and refined physics. Variants on this approach have been used to provide modeling support for theoretical predictions that greenhouse warming will increase the maximum intensities of hurricanes. These modeling studies also simulate increased hurricane rainfall rates in a warmer climate. The studies do not address hurricane frequency issues, and vertical shear is neglected in the idealized studies. A recent development is the use of regional model dynamical downscaling for extended (e.g., season-length) integrations of hurricane activity. In a study for the Atlantic basin, a non-hydrostatic model with grid spacing of 18km is run without convective parameterization, but with internal spectral nudging toward observed large-scale (basin wavenumbers 0-2) atmospheric conditions from reanalyses. Using this approach, our

Hurricane-induced failure of low salinity wetlands

Science.gov (United States)

Howes, Nick C.; FitzGerald, Duncan M.; Hughes, Zoe J.; Georgiou, Ioannis Y.; Kulp, Mark A.; Miner, Michael D.; Smith, Jane M.; Barras, John A.

2010-01-01

During the 2005 hurricane season, the storm surge and wave field associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita eroded 527 km2 of wetlands within the Louisiana coastal plain. Low salinity wetlands were preferentially eroded, while higher salinity wetlands remained robust and largely unchanged. Here we highlight geotechnical differences between the soil profiles of high and low salinity regimes, which are controlled by vegetation and result in differential erosion. In low salinity wetlands, a weak zone (shear strength 500–1450 Pa) was observed ∼30 cm below the marsh surface, coinciding with the base of rooting. High salinity wetlands had no such zone (shear strengths > 4500 Pa) and contained deeper rooting. Storm waves during Hurricane Katrina produced shear stresses between 425–3600 Pa, sufficient to cause widespread erosion of the low salinity wetlands. Vegetation in low salinity marshes is subject to shallower rooting and is susceptible to erosion during large magnitude storms; these conditions may be exacerbated by low inorganic sediment content and high nutrient inputs. The dramatic difference in resiliency of fresh versus more saline marshes suggests that the introduction of freshwater to marshes as part of restoration efforts may therefore weaken existing wetlands rendering them vulnerable to hurricanes. PMID:20660777

The Importance of Hurricane Research to Life, Property, the Economy, and National Security.

Science.gov (United States)

Busalacchi, A. J.

2017-12-01

The devastating 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has brought into stark relief how much hurricane forecasts have improved - and how important it is to make them even better. Whereas the error in 48-hour track forecasts has been reduced by more than half, according to the National Hurricane Center, intensity forecasts remain challenging, especially with storms such as Harvey that strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in less than three days. The unusually active season, with Hurricane Irma sustaining 185-mph winds for a record 36 hours and two Atlantic hurricanes reaching 150-mph winds simultaneously for the first time, also highlighted what we do, and do not, know about how tropical cyclones will change as the climate warms. The extraordinary toll of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria - which may ultimately be responsible for hundreds of deaths and an estimated $200 billion or more in damages - underscores why investments into improved forecasting must be a national priority. At NCAR and UCAR, scientists are working with their colleagues at federal agencies, the private sector, and the university community to advance our understanding of these deadly storms. Among their many projects, NCAR researchers are making experimental tropical cyclone forecasts using an innovative Earth system model that allows for variable resolution. We are working with NOAA to issue flooding, inundation, and streamflow forecasts for areas hit by hurricanes, and we have used extremely high-resolution regional models to simulate successfully the rapid hurricane intensification that has proved so difficult to predict. We are assessing ways to better predict the damage potential of tropical cyclones by looking beyond wind speed to consider such important factors as the size and forward motion of the storm. On the important question of climate change, scientists have experimented with running coupled climate models at a high enough resolution to spin up a hurricane

Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. H. Glantz

2008-04-01

Full Text Available By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time.

Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region.

The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1.

Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on

Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

Science.gov (United States)

Glantz, M. H.

2008-04-01

By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time. Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region. The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1). Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on the order of 20 feet or so. The Ninth Ward, heavily

Hurricane Impact on Seepage Water in Larga Cave, Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Vieten, Rolf; Warken, Sophie; Winter, Amos; Schröder-Ritzrau, Andrea; Scholz, Denis; Spötl, Christoph

2018-03-01

Hurricane-induced rainfall over Puerto Rico has characteristic δ18O values which are more negative than local rainfall events. Thus, hurricanes may be recorded in speleothems from Larga cave, Puerto Rico, as characteristic oxygen isotope excursions. Samples of 84 local rainfall events between 2012 and 2013 ranged from -6.2 to +0.3‰, whereas nine rainfall samples belonging to a rainband of hurricane Isaac (23-24 August 2012) ranged from -11.8 to -7.1‰. Cave monitoring covered the hurricane season of 2014 and investigated the impact of hurricane rainfall on drip water chemistry. δ18O values were measured in cumulative monthly rainwater samples above the cave. Inside the cave, δ18O values of instantaneous drip water samples were analyzed and drip rates were recorded at six drip sites. Most effective recharge appears to occur during the wet months (April-May and August-November). δ18O values of instantaneous drip water samples ranged from -3.5 to -2.4‰. In April 2014 and April 2015 some drip sites showed more negative δ18O values than the effective rainfall (-2.9‰), implying an influence of hurricane rainfall reaching the cave via stratified seepage flow months to years after the event. Speleothems from these drip sites in Larga cave have a high potential for paleotempestology studies.

Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes

OpenAIRE

Khare, Shree; Jewson, Stephen

2005-01-01

We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling hurricanes, and for intense hurricanes only. We find that the averaging lengths needed for optimal predictions of numbers of intense hurricanes are longer than those needed for optimal predictions of numbers of hurricanes of all strengths.

High Temporal Resolution Tropospheric Wind Profile Observations at NASA Kennedy Space Center During Hurricane Irma

Science.gov (United States)

Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.; Huddleston, Lisa; Brauer, Thomas; Wilfong, Timothy

2018-01-01

The NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) operates a 48-MHz Tropospheric/Stratospheric Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (TDRWP) on a continual basis generating wind profiles between 2-19 km in the support of space launch vehicle operations. A benefit of the continual operability of the system is the ability to provide unique observations of severe weather events such as hurricanes. Over the past two Atlantic Hurricane seasons the TDRWP has made high temporal resolution wind profile observations of Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Hurricane Irma was responsible for power outages to approximately 2/3 of Florida's population during its movement over the state(Stein,2017). An overview of the TDRWP system configuration, brief summary of Hurricanes Irma and Matthew storm track in proximity to KSC, characteristics of the tropospheric wind observations from the TDRWP during both events, and discussion of the dissemination of TDRWP data during the event will be presented.

Validation of a probabilistic model for hurricane insurance loss projections in Florida

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinelli, J.-P.; Gurley, K.R.; Subramanian, C.S.; Hamid, S.S.; Pita, G.L.

2008-01-01

The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model is one of the first public models accessible for scrutiny to the scientific community, incorporating state of the art techniques in hurricane and vulnerability modeling. The model was developed for Florida, and is applicable to other hurricane-prone regions where construction practice is similar. The 2004 hurricane season produced substantial losses in Florida, and provided the means to validate and calibrate this model against actual claim data. This paper presents the predicted losses for several insurance portfolios corresponding to hurricanes Andrew, Charley, and Frances. The predictions are validated against the actual claim data. Physical damage predictions for external building components are also compared to observed damage. The analyses show that the predictive capabilities of the model were substantially improved after the calibration against the 2004 data. The methodology also shows that the predictive capabilities of the model could be enhanced if insurance companies report more detailed information about the structures they insure and the types of damage they suffer. This model can be a powerful tool for the study of risk reduction strategies

Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate

Science.gov (United States)

National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site government Web resources and services. CFS Seasonal Climate Forecasts CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate discontinued after October 2012. This page displays seasonal climate anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast

Direct and indirect mortality in Florida during the 2004 hurricane season

Science.gov (United States)

McKinney, Nathan; Houser, Chris; Meyer-Arendt, Klaus

2011-07-01

Previous studies have shown that natural disasters, and hurricanes in particular, have led to more deaths than those usually documented in short post-storm surveys. Such indirect deaths, thought to be related to dietary, stress or pre-existing medical conditions, can exceed the number of direct deaths and may persist for weeks or even months beyond the event itself. In the present study, cumulative sum of deviations plots are used to quantify the number of direct and indirect deaths resulting from Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne that made landfall in Florida in 2004. Results suggest that there was an elevated mortality for up to 2 months following each storm, resulting in a total of 624 direct and indirect deaths attributable to the storm. Trauma-related deaths that can be associated directly with the storm account for only ˜4% of the total storm-related mortality, while indirect mortality accounts for most storm-related deaths. Specifically, a large percentage of the elevated mortality was associated with heart (34%) and cancer-related deaths (19%), while diabetes (5%) and accident-related deaths (9%) account for a smaller but still significant percentage of the elevated mortality. The results further suggest that the elevated mortality was the result of additional deaths that would not have otherwise occurred within that 5 month period, and not simply a clustering of deaths that were inevitable between 1 August and 31 December 2004. The elevated mortality identified in this study is significantly greater than the official count of 31 direct and 113 indirect deaths resulting from the four hurricanes combined. This suggests a need for improved mortality counts and surveillance in order to better evaluate and identify effective prevention policies, and to identify preventable deaths.

Disaster preparedness of dialysis patients for Hurricanes Gustav and Ike 2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Kleinpeter, Myra A

2009-01-01

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita resulted in massive devastation of the Gulf Coast at Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas during 2005. Because of those disasters, dialysis providers, nephrologists, and dialysis patients used disaster planning activities to work to mitigate the morbidity and mortality associated with the 2005 hurricane season for future events affecting dialysis patients. As Hurricane Gustav approached, anniversary events for Hurricane Katrina were postponed because of evacuation orders for nearly the entire Louisiana Gulf Coast. As part of the hurricane preparation, dialysis units reviewed the disaster plans of patients, and patients made preparation for evacuation. Upon evacuation, many patients returned to the dialysis units that had provided services during their exile from Hurricane Katrina; other patients went to other locations as part of their evacuation plan. Patients uniformly reported positive experiences with dialysis providers in their temporary evacuation communities, provided that those communities did not experience the effects of Hurricane Gustav. With the exception of evacuees to Baton Rouge, patients continued to receive their treatments uninterrupted. Because of extensive damage in the Baton Rouge area, resulting in widespread power losses and delayed restoration of power to hospitals and other health care facilities, some patients missed one treatment. However, as a result of compliance with disaster fluid and dietary recommendations, no adverse outcomes occurred. In most instances, patients were able to return to their home dialysis unit or a nearby unit to continue dialysis treatments within 4 - 5 days of Hurricane Gustav. Hurricane Ike struck the Texas Gulf Coast near Galveston, resulting in devastation of that area similar to the devastation seen in New Orleans after Katrina. The storm surge along the Louisiana Gulf Coast resulted in flooding that temporarily closed coastal dialysis units. Patients were prepared and experienced

World energy outlook 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-11-07

The World Energy Outlook 2006 sets out the IEA's latest projections of world energy supply and demand to 2030 for oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity, plus projections on energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions. The publication is in three parts. Part A: The reference scenario has chapters entitled: Key assumptions; Global Energy Trends; Oil market outlook; Gas market outlook; Coal market outlook; and Power sector outlook. Part B: The alternative policy scenario contains chapters on: Mapping a new energy future; Assessing the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies; Deepening the analysis results by sector; and Getting to and going beyond the alternative policy scenario. Part C: Focus on key topics contains: The impact of higher energy prices; Current trends in oil and gas investment; Prospects for nuclear power; The outlook for biofuels; Energy for coking in developing countries; and Focus on Brazil. 224 figs., 84 tabs., 5 annexes.

World energy outlook 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-11-07

The World Energy Outlook 2006 sets out the IEA's latest projections of world energy supply and demand to 2030 for oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity, plus projections on energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions. The publication is in three parts. Part A: The reference scenario has chapters entitled: Key assumptions; Global Energy Trends; Oil market outlook; Gas market outlook; Coal market outlook; and Power sector outlook. Part B: The alternative policy scenario contains chapters on: Mapping a new energy future; Assessing the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies; Deepening the analysis results by sector; and Getting to and going beyond the alternative policy scenario. Part C: Focus on key topics contains: The impact of higher energy prices; Current trends in oil and gas investment; Prospects for nuclear power; The outlook for biofuels; Energy for coking in developing countries; and Focus on Brazil. 224 figs., 84 tabs., 5 annexes.

A Space-Based Perspective of the 2017 Hurricane Season from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Skofronick Jackson, G.; Petersen, W. A.; Huffman, G. J.; Kirschbaum, D.; Wolff, D. B.; Tan, J.; Zavodsky, B.

2017-12-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission collected unique, near real time 3-D satellite-based views of hurricanes in 2017 together with estimated precipitation accumulation using merged satellite data for scientific studies and societal applications. Central to GPM is the NASA-JAXA GPM Core Observatory (CO). The GPM-CO carries an advanced dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and a well-calibrated, multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer that together serve as an on orbit reference for precipitation measurements made by the international GPM satellite constellation. GPM-CO overpasses of major Hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Ophelia revealed intense convective structures in DPR radar reflectivity together with deep ice-phase microphysics in both the eyewalls and outer rain bands. Of considerable scientific interest, and yet to be determined, will be DPR-diagnosed characteristics of the rain drop size distribution as a function of convective structure, intensity and microphysics. The GPM-CO active/passive suite also provided important decision support information. For example, the National Hurricane Center used GPM-CO observations as a tool to inform track and intensity estimates in their forecast briefings. Near-real-time rainfall accumulation from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) was also provided via the NASA SPoRT team to Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria when ground-based radar systems on the island failed. Comparisons between IMERG, NOAA Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor data, and rain gauge rainfall accumulations near Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey revealed spatial biases between ground and IMERG satellite estimates, and a general underestimation of IMERG rain accumulations associated with infrared observations, collectively illustrating the difficulty of measuring rainfall in hurricanes.GPM data continue to advance scientific research on tropical cyclone intensification and structure, and contribute to

Capabilities and Impact on Wind Analyses of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Timothy L.; Amarin, Ruba; Atlas, Robert; Bailey, M. C.; Black, Peter; Buckley, Courtney; James, Mark; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Christopher;

Hurricane Evacuation Routes

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Homeland Security — Hurricane Evacuation Routes in the United States A hurricane evacuation route is a designated route used to direct traffic inland in case of a hurricane threat. This...

Hurricane Resource Reel

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This Reel Includes the Following Sections TRT 50:10 Hurricane Overviews 1:02; Hurricane Arthur 15:07; Cyclone Pam 19:48; Typhoon Hagupit 21:27; Hurricane Bertha...

Soviet Union oil sector outlook grows bleaker still

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on the outlook for the U.S.S.R's oil sector which grows increasingly bleak and with it prospects for the Soviet economy. Plunging Soviet oil production and exports have analysts revising near term oil price outlooks, referring to the Soviet oil sector's self-destructing and Soviet oil production in a freefall. County NatWest, Washington, citing likely drops in Soviet oil production and exports (OGJ, Aug. 5, p. 16), has jumped its projected second half spot price for West Texas intermediate crude by about $2 to $22-23/bbl. Smith Barney, New York, forecasts WTI postings at $24-25/bbl this winter, largely because of seasonally strong world oil demand and the continued collapse in Soviet oil production. It estimates the call on oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries at more than 25 million b/d in first quarter 1992. That would be the highest level of demand for OPEC oil since 1980, Smith Barney noted

Assessment of Risk of Cholera in Haiti following Hurricane Matthew.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Rakib; Anwar, Rifat; Akanda, Shafqat; McDonald, Michael D; Huq, Anwar; Jutla, Antarpreet; Colwell, Rita

2017-09-01

Damage to the inferior and fragile water and sanitation infrastructure of Haiti after Hurricane Matthew has created an urgent public health emergency in terms of likelihood of cholera occurring in the human population. Using satellite-derived data on precipitation, gridded air temperature, and hurricane path and with information on water and sanitation (WASH) infrastructure, we tracked changing environmental conditions conducive for growth of pathogenic vibrios. Based on these data, we predicted and validated the likelihood of cholera cases occurring past hurricane. The risk of cholera in the southwestern part of Haiti remained relatively high since November 2016 to the present. Findings of this study provide a contemporary process for monitoring ground conditions that can guide public health intervention to control cholera in human population by providing access to vaccines, safe WASH facilities. Assuming current social and behavioral patterns remain constant, it is recommended that WASH infrastructure should be improved and considered a priority especially before 2017 rainy season.

NOAA's Strategy to Improve Operational Weather Prediction Outlooks at Subseasonal Time Range

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, T.; Toepfer, F.; Stajner, I.; DeWitt, D.

2017-12-01

NOAA is planning to extend operational global numerical weather prediction to sub-seasonal time range under the auspices of its Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) and Extended Range Outlook Programs. A unification of numerical prediction capabilities for weather and subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales is underway at NOAA using the Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) dynamical core as the basis for the emerging unified system. This presentation will overview NOAA's strategic planning and current activities to improve prediction at S2S time-scales that are ongoing in response to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, Section 201. Over the short-term, NOAA seeks to improve the operational capability through improvements to its ensemble forecast system to extend its range to 30 days using the new FV3 Global Forecast System model, and by using this system to provide reforecast and re-analyses. In parallel, work is ongoing to improve NOAA's operational product suite for 30 day outlooks for temperature, precipitation and extreme weather phenomena.

Hurricanes, climate change and the cholera epidemic in Puerto Rico of 1855-1856.

Science.gov (United States)

Christenson, Bernard

2008-01-01

Hurricanes and global climate changes may affect the environmental factors of cholera dynamics in warm coastal areas, vulnerable to seasonal or sporadic outbreaks. The cholera epidemic of Puerto Rico in 1855-1856 had a profound effect on the Puerto Rican society; but it was not influenced by any climatic events, such as preceding hurricanes or storms based on past documentary sources. Particularly, the environmental non-toxigenic strains of Vibrio Cholerae in Puerto Rican water sources can maintain their pathogenic potential for sporadic or erratic toxigenic cholera outbreaks--if a "perfect storm" ever occurs.

Tropical North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interactions synchronize forest carbon losses from hurricanes and Amazon fires

OpenAIRE

Chen, Y; Randerson, JT; Morton, DC

2015-01-01

©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. We describe a climate mode synchronizing forest carbon losses from North and South America by analyzing time series of tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), landfall hurricanes and tropical storms, and Amazon fires during 1995-2013. Years with anomalously high tropical North Atlantic SSTs during March-June were often followed by a more active hurricane season and a larger number of satellite-detected fires in the south...

Increasing magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the central-eastern Atlantic over the past 30 years

Science.gov (United States)

Leung, L. R.; Balaguru, K.; Foltz, G. R.

2017-12-01

During the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, several hurricanes underwent rapid intensification (RI) in the central-eastern Atlantic. This motivates an analysis of trends in the strength of hurricane RI during the 30-year post-satellite period of 1986-2015. Our results show that in the eastern tropical Atlantic, to the east of 60W, the mean RI magnitude averaged during 2001-2015 was 3.8 kt per 24 hr higher than during 1986-2000. However, in the western tropical Atlantic, to the west of 60W, changes in RI magnitude over the same period were not statistically significant. We examined the large-scale environment to understand the causes behind these changes in RI magnitude and found that various oceanic and atmospheric parameters that play an important role in RI changed favorably in the eastern tropical Atlantic. More specifically, changes in SST, Potential Intensity, upper-ocean heat content, wind shear, relative humidity and upper-level divergence enhanced the ability for hurricanes to undergo RI in the eastern tropical Atlantic. In contrast, changes in the same factors are inconsistent in the western tropical Atlantic. While changes in SST and Potential Intensity were positive, changes in upper-ocean heat content, wind shear and upper-level divergence were either insignificant or unfavorable for RI. Finally, we examined the potential role of various climate phenomena, which are well-known to impact Atlantic hurricane activity, in causing the changes in the large-scale environment. Our analysis reveals that changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation over the 30-year period are predominantly responsible. These results provide important aspects of the large-scale context to understand the Atlantic hurricane season of 2017.

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer

Science.gov (United States)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Biswas, Sayak K.; James, Mark W.; Roberts, J. Brent; Jones, W. Linwood; Johnson, James; Farrar, Spencer; Sahawneh, Saleem; Ruf, Christopher S.; Morris, Mary;

77 FR 64564 - Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-22

...-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Proposed interim...-ISG-024, ``Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles....221, ``Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants.'' DATES: Submit...

Development of a Seasonal Extratropical Cyclone Activity Outlook for the North Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaskan Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Shippee, N. J.; Atkinson, D. E.; Walsh, J. E.; Partain, J.; Gottschalck, J.; Marra, J. J.

2013-12-01

along with that of the NPI. For example, where the December through March NPI anomaly is negative, indicating a strong Aleutian Low, and PDO anomaly is positive, storminess is increased in the Aleutians and the Bering Sea and storms more rapidly exit the Gulf of Alaska. In similar fashion, when the phases of the NPI and PDO anomaly are switched, the storminess increases into the Gulf of Alaska with slower moving storms and longer residence time in the Gulf of Alaska. Methods used to develop the seasonal outlooks and the overall results of the will be overviewed in this presentation.

International energy outlook, 2010

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

This report presents international energy projections through 2035, : prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, including outlooks : for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions. The International Energy Outlook 2010 (...

HURRICANE AND SEVERE STORM SENTINEL (HS3) HURRICANE IMAGING RADIOMETER (HIRAD) V1

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) was collected by the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), which was a multi-band...

A Climatological Study of Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones

OpenAIRE

Laiyemo, Razaak O.

2012-01-01

Using data compiled by the National Weather Service Ocean Prediction Center, a hurricane force extratropical cyclone climatology is created for three cold seasons. Using the criteria of Sanders and Gyakum (1980), it is found that 75% of the 259 storms explosively deepened. The frequency maximum in the Atlantic basin is located to the southeast of Greenland. In the Pacific, two maxima to the east of Japan are identified. These results are in good agreement with previous studies, despite differ...

Frequent Disasters in Mexico: hurricanes Pauline and Manuel in Acapulco, Guerrero

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Manuel Rodríguez Esteves

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Hurricanes and other tropical storms are natural phenomena that attract the interest of people all over the world, especially when they affect coastal communities. Each year, especially during the hurricane season, it is common to read or see in the different media damage caused by tropical storms in several countries, especially in Latin America and Asia. In Mexico total economic losses associated with natural phenomena has been increasing. During the year 2000 were allocated 230 million US dollars for the reconstruction of the infrastructure affected by hydrometeorological phenomena, while in 2013 damage amounted to $ 4,476 million, peaking during 2010 were recorded when 7,208 million dollars in losses. On the other hand, the total of damage caused by natural phenomena, 92 % were associated with hydrometeorological phenomena, which include hurricanes and other phenomena (SEGOB, 2014. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impacts caused by disasters associated with the influence of hurricanes from a comparative perspective between two phenomena in particular, hurricane Pauline in 1997 and Manuel storm in 2013 events hydrometeorological which affected the Mexican state of Guerrero, but especially to the port of Acapulco. one of the main conclusions of this study refers to that no matter only the intensity of the natural phenomenon to generate damage on society, but the total of damages also refers to the contexts of vulnerability generated by a society with the course of the years.

Are recent hurricane (Harvey, Irma, Maria) disasters natural?

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, K. E.; Lijing, C.; Jacobs, P.; Abraham, J. P.

2017-12-01

Yes and no! Hurricanes are certainly natural, but human-caused climate change is supersizing them, and unbridled growth is exacerbating risk of major damages. The addition of heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere has led to observed increases in upper ocean heat content (OHC). This human-caused increase in OHC supports higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric moisture. These elevated temperatures and increased moisture availability fuel tropical storms, allowing them to grow larger, longer lasting, and more intense, and with widespread heavy rainfalls. Our preliminary analysis of OHC through the August of 2017 shows not only was it by far the highest on record globally, but it was also the highest on record in the Gulf of Mexico prior to hurricane Harvey occurring. The human influence on the climate is also evident in rising sea levels, which increases risks from storm surges. These climatic changes are taking place against a background of growing habitation along coasts, which further increases the risk storms pose to life and property. This combination of planning choice and climatic change illustrates the tragedy of global warming, as evidenced by Harvey in Houston, Irma in the Caribbean and Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico. However, future damages and loss of life can be mitigated, by stopping or slowing human-caused climate change, and through proactive planning (e.g., better building codes, increased-capacity drainage systems, shelters, and evacuation plans). We discuss the climatic and planning contexts of the unnatural disasters of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season, including novel indices of climate-hurricane influence.

Tropical North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interactions synchronize forest carbon losses from hurricanes and Amazon fires

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Morton, Douglas C.

2015-08-01

We describe a climate mode synchronizing forest carbon losses from North and South America by analyzing time series of tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), landfall hurricanes and tropical storms, and Amazon fires during 1995-2013. Years with anomalously high tropical North Atlantic SSTs during March-June were often followed by a more active hurricane season and a larger number of satellite-detected fires in the southern Amazon during June-November. The relationship between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and southern Amazon fires (r = 0.61, p forests.

Community And Stakeholder Engagement With A University-Based Storm Research Team And Program During Events: Progressive Awareness, Cooperation And Mutual Support.

Science.gov (United States)

Gayes, P. T.; Bao, S.; Yan, T.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Hallstrom, J.; Stirling, D.; Mullikin, T.; McClam, M.; Byrd, M.; Aucoin, K.; Marosites, B.

2017-12-01

HUGO: The HUrricane Genesis and Outlook program is a research initiative spanning new approaches to Atlantic tropical season outlooking to a storm event-related interactively coupled model system. In addition to supporting faculty and student academic research it has progressively been engaged by diverse regional interests in the public and private sector. The seasonal outlook incorporates 22 regional-to-global climate drivers developed from the historical storm database and has shown good skill related to historical storm seasons within the development of the model as well as the last several years in an outlook capacity. The event scale model is a based upon a fully interactively coupled model system incorporating ocean, atmosphere, wave and surge/flood models. The recent cluster of storms impacting the Southeast US provided an opportunity to test the model system and helped develop strong collaborative interests across diverse groups seeking to facilitate local capacity and access to additional storm-related information, observations and expertise. The SC State Guard has actively engaged the HUGO team in carrying out their charge in emergency responders planning and activities during several recent storms and flooding events. They were instrumental in developing support to expand observational systems aiding model validation and development as well as develop access pathways for deployment of new observational technology developed through NSF sponsored projects (Intelligent River and Hurricane-RAPID) with ISENSE at Florida Atlantic University to advance observational capability and density especially during or immediately following events. At the same time an increasing number of county-level emergency and environmental managers and private sector interests have similarly been working collaborately towards expanding observational systems contributing to the goals of the growing storm-oriented cooperative and as well as broader national MesoUS goals. Collectively

Significant Wave Height under Hurricane Irma derived from SAR Sentinel-1 Data

Science.gov (United States)

Lehner, S.; Pleskachevsky, A.; Soloviev, A.; Fujimura, A.

2017-12-01

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was with three major hurricanes a particular active one. The Category 4 hurricane Irma made landfall on the Florida Keys on September 10th 2017 and was imaged several times by ESAs Sentinel-1 satellites in C-band and the TerraSAR-X satellite in X-band. The high resolution TerraSAR-X imagery showed the footprint of individual tornadoes on the sea surface together with their turbulent wake imaged as a dark line due to increased turbulence. The water-cloud structures of the tornadoes are analyzed and their sea surface structure is compared to optical and IR cloud imagery. An estimate of the wind field using standard XMOD algorithms is provided, although saturating under the strong rain and high wind speed conditions. Imaging the hurricanes by space radar gives the opportunity to observe the sea surface and thus measure the wind field and the sea state under hurricane conditions through the clouds even in this severe weather, although rain features, which are usually not observed in SAR become visible due to damping effects. The Copernicus Sentinel-1 A and B satellites, which are operating in C-band provided several images of the sea surface under hurricane Irma, Jose and Maria. The data were acquired daily and converted into measurements of sea surface wind field u10 and significant wave height Hs over a swath width of 280km about 1000 km along the orbit. The wind field of the hurricanes as derived by CMOD is provided by NOAA operationally on their web server. In the hurricane cases though the wind speed saturates at 20 m/sec and is thus too low in the area of hurricane wind speed. The technique to derive significant wave height is new though and does not show any calibration issues. This technique provides for the first time measurements of the areal coverage and distribution of the ocean wave height as caused by a hurricane on SAR wide swath images. Wave heights up to 10 m were measured under the forward quadrant of the hurricane

Satellite Remote Sensing of Ocean Winds, Surface Waves and Surface Currents during the Hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, G.; Perrie, W. A.; Liu, G.; Zhang, L.

2017-12-01

, waves and currents in hurricanes can be useful for intensity prediction, which has had relatively few improvements in the past 25 years. In 2018 RADARSAT Constellation Mission will be launched, increasing SAR coverage by 10×, allowing increased observations during the next hurricane season.

Effects of Hurricane Georges on habitat use by captive-reared Hispaniolan Parrots (Amazona ventralis) released in the Dominican Republic

Science.gov (United States)

White, T.H.; Collazo, J.A.; Vilella, F.J.; Guerrero, S.A.

2005-01-01

We radio-tagged and released 49 captive-reared Hispaniolan Parrots (Amazona ventralis) in Parque Nacional del Este (PNE), Dominican Republic, during 1997 and 1998. Our primary objective was to develop a restoration program centered on using aviary-reared birds to further the recovery of the critically endangered Puerto Rican Parrot (A. vittata). Hurricane Georges made landfall over the release area on 22 September 1998 with sustained winds of 224 km/h, providing us with a unique opportunity to quantify responses of parrots to such disturbances. Quantitative data on such responses by any avian species are scarce, particularly for Amazona species, many of which are in peril and occur in hurricane-prone areas throughout the Caribbean. Mean home ranges of 18 parrots monitored both before and after the hurricane increased (P = 0.08) from 864 ha (CI = 689-1039 ha) pre-hurricane to 1690 ha (CI = 1003-2377 ha) post-hurricane. The total area traversed by all parrots increased > 300%, from 4884 ha pre-hurricane to 15,490 ha post-hurricane. Before Hurricane Georges, parrot activity was concentrated in coastal scrub, tall broadleaf forest, and abandoned agriculture (conucos). After the hurricane, parrots concentrated their activities in areas of tall broadleaf forest and abandoned conucos. Topographic relief, primarily in the form of large sinkholes, resulted in "resource refugia" where parrots and other frugivores foraged after the hurricane. Habitat use and movement patterns exhibited by released birds highlight the importance of carefully considering effects of season, topography, and overall size of release areas when planning psittacine restorations in hurricane-prone areas. ?? The Neotropical Ornithological Society.

Short-term energy outlook, annual supplement 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-08-01

The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (Supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts

Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1993-08-06

The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

Hurricane Gustav Poster

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Gustav poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Gustav having made landfall along the Louisiana coastline. Poster size is 36"x27"

Education Policy Outlook: Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Figueroa, Diana Toledo; Golden, Gillian; Giovinazzo, Manon; Peterka, Judith; Ullmann, Marie

2017-01-01

This policy profile on education in Austria is part of the "Education Policy Outlook" series, which presents comparative analysis of education policies and reforms across OECD countries. Building on the OECD's substantial comparative and sectoral knowledge base, the series offers a comparative outlook on education policy by providing…

Hurricane Ike Poster

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Ike poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-15 shows Hurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward Galveston Island, Texas. Poster size is 36"x27".

Facts and effects of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orlandi, Lisa

2005-01-01

This work resumes the facts and the effects involved by the two strongest hurricanes that recently hit the Gulf of Mexico producing strong reductions in oil and gas supply and a huge lack of refining capacity. Today, in spite of the partial recovery of activities and the price decrease, the way of the reconstruction is still long to achieve and chasing of the winter season could prompt a new rise of oil prices [it

Hurricane Impacts on Small Island Communities: Case study of Hurricane Matthew on Great Exuma, The Bahamas

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan Sealey, Kathleen; Bowleg, John

2017-04-01

Great Exuma has been a UNESCO Eco-hydrology Project Site with a focus on coastal restoration and flood management. Great Exuma and its largest settlement, George Town, support a population of just over 8.000 people on an island dominated by extensive coastal wetlands. The Victoria Pond Eco-Hydrology project restored flow and drainage to highly-altered coastal wetlands to reduce flooding of the built environment as well as regain ecological function. The project was designed to show the value of a protected wetland and coastal environment within a populated settlement; demonstrating that people can live alongside mangroves and value "green" infrastructure for flood protection. The restoration project was initiated after severe storm flooding in 2007 with Tropical Storm Noel. In 2016, the passing of Hurricane Matthew had unprecedented impacts on the coastal communities of Great Exuma, challenging past practices in restoration and flood prevention. This talk reviews the loss of natural capital (for example, fish populations, mangroves, salt water inundation) from Hurricane Matthew based on a rapid response survey of Great Exuma. The surprisingly find was the impact of storm surge on low-lying areas used primarily for personal farms and small-scale agriculture. Although women made up the overwhelming majority of people who attended Coastal Restoration workshops, women were most adversely impacted by the recent hurricane flooding with the loss of their small low-lying farms and gardens. Although increasing culverts in mangrove creeks in two areas did reduce building flood damage, the low-lying areas adjacent to mangroves, mostly ephemeral freshwater wetlands, were inundated with saltwater, and seasonal crops in these areas were destroyed. These ephemeral wetlands were designed as part of the wetland flooding system, it was not known how important these small areas were to artisanal farming on Great Exuma. The size and scope of Hurricane Matthew passing through the

An assessment of change in risk perception and optimistic bias for hurricanes among Gulf Coast residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Trumbo, Craig; Meyer, Michelle A; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori; Morrissey, Bridget

2014-06-01

This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two-year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow-up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t-tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross-lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross-lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables' effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Mapping and Visualization of Storm-Surge Dynamics for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Gesch, Dean B.

2009-01-01

The damages caused by the storm surges from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were significant and occurred over broad areas. Storm-surge maps are among the most useful geospatial datasets for hurricane recovery, impact assessments, and mitigation planning for future storms. Surveyed high-water marks were used to generate a maximum storm-surge surface for Hurricane Katrina extending from eastern Louisiana to Mobile Bay, Alabama. The interpolated surface was intersected with high-resolution lidar elevation data covering the study area to produce a highly detailed digital storm-surge inundation map. The storm-surge dataset and related data are available for display and query in a Web-based viewer application. A unique water-level dataset from a network of portable pressure sensors deployed in the days just prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall captured the hurricane's storm surge. The recorded sensor data provided water-level measurements with a very high temporal resolution at surveyed point locations. The resulting dataset was used to generate a time series of storm-surge surfaces that documents the surge dynamics in a new, spatially explicit way. The temporal information contained in the multiple storm-surge surfaces can be visualized in a number of ways to portray how the surge interacted with and was affected by land surface features. Spatially explicit storm-surge products can be useful for a variety of hurricane impact assessments, especially studies of wetland and land changes where knowledge of the extent and magnitude of storm-surge flooding is critical.

Swamp tours in Louisiana post Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Dawn J. Schaffer; Craig A. Miller

2007-01-01

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita made landfall in southern Louisiana during August and September 2005. Prior to these storms, swamp tours were a growing sector of nature-based tourism that entertained visitors while teaching about local flora, fauna, and culture. This study determined post-hurricane operating status of tours, damage sustained, and repairs made. Differences...

Conoco details energy outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that the U.S., government should adopt policies that encourage U.S. petroleum companies to diversify crude oil sources around the world, says Conoco Inc. That's the key them underlying Conoco's latest world energy outlook through 2000. In its 1989 outlook, Conoco called on the U.S. government to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Coastal Plain to exploration and development and provide a tax credit of $5/bbl of oil equivalent (BOE) for production from U.S. frontier areas as keys to reducing U.S. oil import dependence. Although Conoco included opening the ANWR Coastal Plain and more of the U.S. offshore among U.S. policy recommendations in its current outlook, the company placed the greatest emphasis on incentives for worldwide exploration

Hurricane Katrina: A Teachable Moment

Science.gov (United States)

Bertrand, Peggy

2009-01-01

This article presents suggestions for integrating the phenomenon of hurricanes into the teaching of high school fluid mechanics. Students come to understand core science concepts in the context of their impact upon both the environment and human populations. Suggestions for using information about hurricanes, particularly Hurricane Katrina, in a…

Climate Prediction Center - monthly Outlook

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Outlooks monthly Climate Outlooks Banner OFFICIAL Forecasts June 2018 [UPDATED MONTHLY FORECASTS SERVICE ) Canonical Correlation Analysis ECCA - Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis Optimal Climate Normals

Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 1 - Reconstruction of Hurricane Harvey Flooding for Harris County, TX using a GPU-accelerated 2D flood model for post-flood hazard analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kalyanapu, A. J.; Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey that made landfall in the southern Texas this August is one of the most destructive hurricanes during the 2017 hurricane season. During its active period, many areas in coastal Texas region received more than 40 inches of rain. This downpour caused significant flooding resulting in about 77 casualties, displacing more than 30,000 people, inundating hundreds of thousands homes and is currently estimated to have caused more than $70 billion in direct damage. One of the significantly affected areas is Harris County where the city of Houston, TX is located. Covering over two HUC-8 drainage basins ( 2702 mi2), this county experienced more than 80% of its annual average rainfall during this event. This study presents an effort to reconstruct flooding caused by extreme rainfall due to Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. This computationally intensive task was performed at a 30-m spatial resolution using a rapid flood model called Flood2D-GPU, a graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated model, on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) Titan Supercomputer. For this task, the hourly rainfall estimates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV Quantitative Precipitation Estimate were fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and Routing Application for Parallel computation of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to estimate flow hydrographs at 69 locations for Flood2D-GPU simulation. Preliminary results of the simulation including flood inundation extents, maps of flood depths and inundation duration will be presented. Future efforts will focus on calibrating and validating the simulation results and assessing the flood damage for better understanding the impacts made by Hurricane Harvey.

Application of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble to seasonal water supply forecasting in the Great Lakes basin through the use of the Great Lakes Seasonal Climate Forecast Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Gronewold, A.; Apps, D.; Fry, L. M.; Bolinger, R.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) contribution to the internationally coordinated 6-month forecast of Great Lakes water levels relies on several water supply models, including a regression model relating a coming month's water supply to past water supplies, previous months' precipitation and temperature, and forecasted precipitation and temperature. Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation and temperature depicted in the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlook maps are considered to be standard for use in operational forecasting for seasonal time horizons, and have provided the basis for computing a coming month's precipitation and temperature for use in the USACE water supply regression models. The CPC outlook maps are a useful forecast product offering insight into interpretation of climate models through the prognostic discussion and graphical forecasts. However, recent evolution of USACE forecast procedures to accommodate automated data transfer and manipulation offers a new opportunity for direct incorporation of ensemble climate forecast data into probabilistic outlooks of water supply using existing models that have previously been implemented in a deterministic fashion. We will present results from a study investigating the potential for applying data from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble to operational water supply forecasts. The use of NMME forecasts is facilitated by a new, publicly available, Great Lakes Seasonal Climate Forecast Tool that provides operational forecasts of monthly average temperatures and monthly total precipitation summarized for each lake basin.

Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Ning

Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

Rapid shelf-wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Seroka, Greg; Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

2017-06-01

Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead-of-eye-center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation-validated, high-resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid-Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)-with an inshore Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season-and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)-with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead-of-eye-center depth-averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead-of-eye-center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3-D coupled atmosphere-ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels.

Florida Department of Health Workers’ Response to 2004 Hurricanes: A Qualitative Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Herberman Mash, Holly B.; Fullerton, Carol S.; Kowalski-Trakofler, Kathleen; Reissman, Dori B.; Scharf, Ted; Shultz, James M.; Ursano, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Objective Examinations of the demands on public health workers after disaster exposure have been limited. Workers provide emergency care while simultaneously risking injury, damage to personal property, and threats to their own and their family’s safety. We examined the disaster management experiences of 4323 Florida Department of Health workers 9 months after their response to 4 hurricanes and 1 tropical storm during a 7-week period in August and September of 2004. Methods Participants completed a self-report questionnaire focused on work performance, mental and physical health, daily functioning, sleep disturbance, physiological arousal, and injury and work demand at the time of the hurricanes, and answered open-ended questions that described their experiences in more detail. Results A qualitative analysis conducted from the write-in data yielded 4 domains: (1) work/life balance; (2) training for disaster response role; (3) workplace support; and (4) recovery. Conclusions Study findings highlighted a number of concerns that are important to public health workers who provide emergency care after a disaster and, in particular, multiple disasters such as during the 2004 hurricane season. The findings also yielded important recommendations for emergency public health preparedness. PMID:24618166

Florida Department of Health workers' response to 2004 hurricanes: a qualitative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Herberman Mash, Holly B; Fullerton, Carol S; Kowalski-Trakofler, Kathleen; Reissman, Dori B; Scharf, Ted; Shultz, James M; Ursano, Robert J

2013-04-01

Examinations of the demands on public health workers after disaster exposure have been limited. Workers provide emergency care while simultaneously risking injury, damage to personal property, and threats to their own and their family's safety. We examined the disaster management experiences of 4323 Florida Department of Health workers 9 months after their response to 4 hurricanes and 1 tropical storm during a 7-week period in August and September of 2004. Participants completed a self-report questionnaire focused on work performance, mental and physical health, daily functioning, sleep disturbance, physiological arousal, and injury and work demand at the time of the hurricanes, and answered open-ended questions that described their experiences in more detail. A qualitative analysis conducted from the write-in data yielded 4 domains: (1) work/life balance; (2) training for disaster response role; (3) workplace support; and (4) recovery. Study findings highlighted a number of concerns that are important to public health workers who provide emergency care after a disaster and, in particular, multiple disasters such as during the 2004 hurricane season. The findings also yielded important recommendations for emergency public health preparedness.

2005 Atlantic Hurricanes Poster

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes poster features high quality satellite images of 15 hurricanes which formed in the Atlantic Basin (includes Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean...

2004 Landfalling Hurricanes Poster

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2004 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes poster is a special edition poster which contains two sets of images of Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, created...

Velocity Spectrum Variation in Central Gulf of Mexico: 9Case Studies for the 2005 Hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, F.; Li, C.

2012-12-01

Significant near inertial oscillation caused by hurricanes is common in the ocean. The details of the vertical and temporal variations of hurricane induced near inertial oscillation are usually complicated. We have done a case study of such vertical and temporal variations of velocity spectrum focusing around the inertial frequency for the 2005 hurricane season. Data were from a deep water mooring chain containing a series of current meters and 2 ADCPs from June to November 2005. The velocity spectrum is obtained with a 10-day sliding window at different depths for the 40-hour high-passed data to exclude the low frequency Loop Current variations. This gives a temporal variation of the spectrum at different depths. Such variations in velocity spectrum are resulted from the ocean dynamics influenced by the passage of hurricanes. Our preliminary analysis of the results show that (1) right before the center of the hurricane gets closest to the mooring site, there always exists a 2-peak feature of energy at almost all depths; while during the passage of the hurricane these two peaks will merge Into one peak which has a corresponding period of 30.3 to 25.6 hours, encompassing that corresponding to the inertial frequency in this latitude; (2) after the passage of the hurricane, the decay process of energy is also complicated. It is found that the whole profile can be at least divided into 3 layers: surface to 800m, 800m to 1500m, and 1500m to the bottom, which is consistent with the stratification of the water column. It is also found that shift in the peak frequency to either side of the inertial frequency is very common. The main peak of energy can break into several parts during the decay stage, with blue shift and red shift.; ;

Hurricane Katrina Poster (August 28, 2005)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Katrina poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-18 shows a very large Hurricane Katrina as a category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on August 28, 2005....

Hurricane Rita Poster (September 22, 2005)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Rita poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Rita as a category-4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on September 22, 2005. Poster size is...

Recovery from PTSD following Hurricane Katrina.

Science.gov (United States)

McLaughlin, Katie A; Berglund, Patricia; Gruber, Michael J; Kessler, Ronald C; Sampson, Nancy A; Zaslavsky, Alan M

2011-06-01

We examined patterns and correlates of speed of recovery of estimated posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among people who developed PTSD in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. A probability sample of prehurricane residents of areas affected by Hurricane Katrina was administered a telephone survey 7-19 months following the hurricane and again 24-27 months posthurricane. The baseline survey assessed PTSD using a validated screening scale and assessed a number of hypothesized predictors of PTSD recovery that included sociodemographics, prehurricane history of psychopathology, hurricane-related stressors, social support, and social competence. Exposure to posthurricane stressors and course of estimated PTSD were assessed in a follow-up interview. An estimated 17.1% of respondents had a history of estimated hurricane-related PTSD at baseline and 29.2% by the follow-up survey. Of the respondents who developed estimated hurricane-related PTSD, 39.0% recovered by the time of the follow-up survey with a mean duration of 16.5 months. Predictors of slow recovery included exposure to a life-threatening situation, hurricane-related housing adversity, and high income. Other sociodemographics, history of psychopathology, social support, social competence, and posthurricane stressors were unrelated to recovery from estimated PTSD. The majority of adults who developed estimated PTSD after Hurricane Katrina did not recover within 18-27 months. Delayed onset was common. Findings document the importance of initial trauma exposure severity in predicting course of illness and suggest that pre- and posttrauma factors typically associated with course of estimated PTSD did not influence recovery following Hurricane Katrina. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis 90-Day Seasonal Forecast of Precipitation

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA) precipitation forecast is a 90-day (seasonal) outlook of US surface precipitation anomalies. The ECCA uses...

48 CFR 1852.236-73 - Hurricane plan.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Hurricane plan. 1852.236-73... Hurricane plan. As prescribed in 1836.570(c), insert the following clause: Hurricane Plan (DEC 1988) In the event of a hurricane warning, the Contractor shall— (a) Inspect the area and place all materials...

The impact of onsite wastewater disposal systems on groundwater in areas inundated by Hurricane Sandy in New York and New Jersey

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Irene; Phillips, Patrick J.; Colella, Kaitlyn; Fisher, Shawn C.; Tagliaferri, Tristen N.; Foreman, William T.; Furlong, Edward T.

2016-01-01

Coastal onsite wastewater disposal systems (OWDS) were inundated by Hurricane Sandy's storm tide. This study compares the shallow groundwater quality (nutrients, pharmaceuticals, and hormones) downgradient of OWDS before and after Hurricane Sandy, where available, and establishes a baseline for wastewater influence on groundwater in coastal communities inundated by Hurricane Sandy. Nutrients and contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) were detected in shallow groundwater downgradient of OWDS in two settings along the New Jersey and New York coastlines: 1) a single, centralized OWDS in a park; and 2) multiple OWDS (cesspools) in low-density residential and mixed-use/medium density residential areas. The most frequently detected pharmaceuticals were lidocaine (40%), carbamazepine (36%), and fexofenadine, bupropion, desvenlafaxine, meprobamate, and tramadol (24–32%). Increases in the number and total concentration of pharmaceuticals after Hurricane Sandy may reflect other factors (seasonality, usage) besides inundation, and demonstrate the importance of analyzing for a wide variety of CECs in regional studies.

Multivariate Analysis of MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Aerosol Retrievals and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS Parameters for Atlantic Hurricanes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammed M. Kamal

2012-09-01

Full Text Available MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS aerosol retrievals over the North Atlantic spanning seven hurricane seasons are combined with the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS parameters. The difference between the current and future intensity changes were selected as response variables. For 24 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 and 5 between 2003 and 2009, eight lead time response variables were determined to be between 6 and 48 h. By combining MODIS and SHIPS data, 56 variables were compiled and selected as predictors for this study. Variable reduction from 56 to 31 was performed in two steps; the first step was via correlation coefficients (cc followed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA extraction techniques. The PCA reduced 31 variables to 20. Five categories were established based on the PCA group variables exhibiting similar physical phenomena. Average aerosol retrievals from MODIS Level 2 data in the vicinity of UTC 1,200 and 1,800 h were mapped to the SHIPS parameters to perform Multiple Linear Regression (MLR between each response variable against six sets of predictors of 31, 30, 28, 27, 23 and 20 variables. The deviation among the predictors Root Mean Square Error (RMSE varied between 0.01 through 0.05 and, therefore, implied that reducing the number of variables did not change the core physical information. Even when the parameters are reduced from 56 to 20, the correlation values exhibit a stronger relationship between the response and predictors. Therefore, the same phenomena can be explained by the reduction of variables.

Estimating cellular network performance during hurricanes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Booker, Graham; Torres, Jacob; Guikema, Seth; Sprintson, Alex; Brumbelow, Kelly

2010-01-01

Cellular networks serve a critical role during and immediately after a hurricane, allowing citizens to contact emergency services when land-line communication is lost and serving as a backup communication channel for emergency responders. However, due to their ubiquitous deployment and limited design for extreme loading events, basic network elements, such as cellular towers and antennas are prone to failures during adverse weather conditions such as hurricanes. Accordingly, a systematic and computationally feasible approach is required for assessing and improving the reliability of cellular networks during hurricanes. In this paper we develop a new multi-disciplinary approach to efficiently and accurately assess cellular network reliability during hurricanes. We show how the performance of a cellular network during and immediately after future hurricanes can be estimated based on a combination of hurricane wind field models, structural reliability analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and cellular network models and simulation tools. We then demonstrate the use of this approach for assessing the improvement in system reliability that can be achieved with discrete topological changes in the system. Our results suggest that adding redundancy, particularly through a mesh topology or through the addition of an optical fiber ring around the perimeter of the system can be an effective way to significantly increase the reliability of some cellular systems during hurricanes.

Development of a decision support tool for seasonal water supply management incorporating system uncertainties and operational constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, H.; Asefa, T.

2017-12-01

A real-time decision support tool (DST) for water supply system would consider system uncertainties, e.g., uncertain streamflow and demand, as well as operational constraints and infrastructure outage (e.g., pump station shutdown, an offline reservoir due to maintenance). Such DST is often used by water managers for resource allocation and delivery for customers. Although most seasonal DST used by water managers recognize those system uncertainties and operational constraints, most use only historical information or assume deterministic outlook of water supply systems. This study presents a seasonal DST that incorporates rainfall/streamflow uncertainties, seasonal demand outlook and system operational constraints. Large scale climate-information is captured through a rainfall simulator driven by a Bayesian non-homogeneous Markov Chain Monte Carlo model that allows non-stationary transition probabilities contingent on Nino 3.4 index. An ad-hoc seasonal demand forecasting model considers weather conditions explicitly and socio-economic factors implicitly. Latin Hypercube sampling is employed to effectively sample probability density functions of flow and demand. Seasonal system operation is modelled as a mixed-integer optimization problem that aims at minimizing operational costs. It embeds the flexibility of modifying operational rules at different components, e.g., surface water treatment plants, desalination facilities, and groundwater pumping stations. The proposed framework is illustrated at a wholesale water supplier in Southeastern United States, Tampa Bay Water. The use of the tool is demonstrated in proving operational guidance in a typical drawdown and refill cycle of a regional reservoir. The DST provided: 1) probabilistic outlook of reservoir storage and chance of a successful refill by the end of rainy season; 2) operational expectations for large infrastructures (e.g., high service pumps and booster stations) throughout the season. Other potential use

7 CFR 701.50 - 2005 hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false 2005 hurricanes. 701.50 Section 701.50 Agriculture... ADMINISTERED UNDER THIS PART § 701.50 2005 hurricanes. In addition benefits elsewhere allowed by this part, claims related to calendar year 2005 hurricane losses may be allowed to the extent provided for in §§ 701...

An Examination of Hurricane Emergency Preparedness Planning at Institutions of Higher Learning of the Gulf South Region Post Hurricane Katrina

Science.gov (United States)

Ventura, Caterina Gulli

2010-01-01

The purpose of the study was to examine hurricane emergency preparedness planning at institutions of higher learning of the Gulf South region following Hurricane Katrina. The problem addressed the impact of Hurricane Katrina on decision-making and policy planning processes. The focus was on individuals that administer the hurricane emergency…

Canadian natural gas winter 2005-06 outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-11-01

An outline of the Canadian natural gas commodity market was presented along with an outlook for Canadian natural gas supply and prices for the winter heating season of 2005-2006. In Canada, the level of natural gas production is much higher than domestic consumption. In 2004, Canadian natural gas production was 16.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), while domestic consumption was much lower at 8.2 Bcf/d. The United States, whose natural gas consumption is higher than production, imported about 16 per cent of its natural gas supply from Canada and 3 per cent from other countries via liquefied natural gas imports. Canadian natural gas exports to the United States in 2004 was 8.7 Bcf/d, representing 51 per cent of Canada's production. In Canada, the most important natural gas commodity markets that determine natural gas commodity prices include the intra-Alberta market and the market at the Dawn, Ontario natural gas hub. A well connected pipeline infrastructure connects the natural gas commodity markets in Canada and the United States, allowing supply and demand fundamentals to be transferred across all markets. As such, the integrated natural gas markets in both countries influence the demand, supply and price of natural gas. Canadian natural gas production doubled from 7 to 16.6 Bcf/d between 1986 and 2001. However, in the past 3 years, production from western Canada has leveled out despite record high drilling activity. This can be attributed to declining conventional reserves and the need to find new natural gas in smaller and lower-quality reservoirs. The combination of steady demand growth with slow supply growth has resulted in high natural gas prices since the beginning of 2004. In particular, hurricane damage in August 2005 disrupted natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico's offshore producing region, shutting-in nearly 9 Bcf/d at the height of damage. This paper summarized some of the key factors that influence natural gas market and prices, with

Development, Capabilities, and Impact on Wind Analyses of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, T.; Amarin, R.; Atlas, R.; Bailey, M.; Black, P.; Buckley, C.; Chen, S.; El-Nimri, S.; Hood, R.; James, M.;

Hurricane Katrina impacts on Mississippi forests

Science.gov (United States)

Sonja N. Oswalt; Christopher Oswalt; Jeffery Turner

2008-01-01

Hurricane Katrina triggered public interest and concern for forests in Mississippi that required rapid responses from the scientific community. A uniform systematic sample of 3,590 ground plots were established and measured in 687 days immediately after the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast. The hurricane damaged an estimated 521 million trees with more...

Genesis of tornadoes associated with hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Gentry, R. C.

1983-01-01

The climatological history of hurricane-tornadoes is brought up to date through 1982. Most of the tornadoes either form near the center of the hurricane, from the outer edge of the eyewall outward, or in an area between north and east-southeast of the hurricane center. The blackbody temperatures of the cloud tops which were analyzed for several hurricane-tornadoes that formed in the years 1974, 1975, and 1979, did not furnish strong precursor signals of tornado formation, but followed one of two patterns: either the temperatures were very low, or the tornado formed in areas of strong temperature gradients. Tornadoes with tropical cyclones most frequently occur at 1200-1800 LST, and although most are relatively weak, they can reach the F3 intensity level. Most form in association with the outer rainbands of the hurricane.

Safety and design impact of hurricane Andrew

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guey, Ching N.

2004-01-01

Turkey Point completed the IPE in June of 1991. Hurricane Andrew landed at Turkey Point on August 24, 1992. Although the safety related systems, components and structures were not damaged by the Hurricane Andrew, certain nonsafety related components and the neighboring fossil plant sustained noticeable damage. Among the major components that were nonsafety related but would affect the PRA of the plant included the service water pumps and the high tower. This paper discusses the safety and design impact of Hurricane Andrew on Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant. The risk of hurricanes on the interim and evolving plant configurations are briefly described. The risk of the plant from internal events as a result of damage incurred during Hurricane Andrew are discussed. The design change as the result of Hurricane Andrew and its impact on the PRA are presented. (author)

Depressive Symptom Severity and Community Collective Efficacy following the 2004 Florida Hurricanes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carol S Fullerton

Full Text Available There is a lack of research investigating community-level characteristics, such as community collective efficacy, mitigating the impact of disasters on psychological health, specifically depression. We examined the association of community collective efficacy with depressive symptom severity in Florida public health workers (n = 2249 exposed to the 2004 hurricane season using a multilevel approach. Cross-sectional anonymous questionnaires were distributed electronically to all Florida Department of Health (FDOH personnel that assessed depressive symptom severity and collective efficacy nine months after the 2004 hurricane season. Analyses were conducted at the individual level and community level using zip codes. The majority of participants were female (81.9%, and ages ranged from 20 to 78 years (median = 49 years. The majority of participants (73.4% were European American, 12.7% were African American, and 9.2% were Hispanic. Using multilevel analysis, our data indicate that higher community-level and individual-level collective efficacy were associated with significantly lower depressive symptom severity (b = -0.09 [95% CI: -0.13, -0.04] and b = -0.09 [95% CI: -0.12, -0.06], respectively even after adjusting for individual sociodemographic variables, community socioeconomic characteristics, individual injury/damage, and community storm damage. Lower levels of depressive symptom severity were associated with communities with high collective efficacy. Our study highlights the possible importance of programs that enrich community collective efficacy for disaster communities.

Continental United States Hurricane Strikes

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...

75 FR 54918 - Draft Regulatory Guide, DG-1247, “Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-09

.... This series was developed to describe and make available to the public such information as methods that... maximum hurricane windspeeds for hurricanes that originate in the Atlantic and make landfall along the... connected and provides an aerodynamic sail area on which the wind can act. An automobile hurricane missile...

Identification of Caribbean basin hurricanes from Spanish documentary sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia-Herrera, R. [Depto. Fisica de la Tierra II, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Gimeno, L. [Universidad de Vigo, Ourense (Spain); Ribera, P.; Gonzalez, E.; Fernandez, G. [Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla (Spain); Hernandez, E. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (Spain)

2007-07-15

This paper analyses five hurricanes that occurred in the period 1600 to 1800. These examples were identified during a systematic search in the General Archive of the Indies (AGI) in Seville. The research combined the expertise of climatologists and historians in order to optimise the search and analysis strategies. Results demonstrate the potential of this archive for the assessment of hurricanes in this period and show some of the difficulties involved in the collection of evidence of hurricane activity. The documents provide detailed descriptions of a hurricane's impacts and allow us to identify previously unreported hurricanes, obtain more precise dates for hurricanes previously identified, better define the area affected by a given hurricane and, finally, better assess a hurricane's intensity.

Predicting hurricane wind damage by claim payout based on Hurricane Ike in Texas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ji-Myong Kim

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The increasing occurrence of natural disasters and their related damage have led to a growing demand for models that predict financial loss. Although considerable research on the financial losses related to natural disasters has found significant predictors, there has been a lack of comprehensive study that addresses the relationship among vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and the economic losses of individual buildings. This study identifies the vulnerability indicators for hurricanes to establish a metric to predict the related financial loss. We classify hurricane-prone areas by highlighting the spatial distribution of losses and vulnerabilities. This study used a Geographical Information System (GIS to combine and produce spatial data and a multiple regression method to establish a wind damage prediction model. As the dependent variable, we used the value of the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA claim payout divided by the appraised values of the buildings to predict real economic loss. As independent variables, we selected a hurricane indicator and built environment vulnerability indicators. The model we developed can be used by government agencies and insurance companies to predict hurricane wind damage.

Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the second quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding

External factors impacting hospital evacuations caused by Hurricane Rita: the role of situational awareness.

Science.gov (United States)

Downey, Erin L; Andress, Knox; Schultz, Carl H

2013-06-01

The 2005 Gulf Coast hurricane season was one of the most costly and deadly in US history. Hurricane Rita stressed hospitals and led to multiple, simultaneous evacuations. This study systematically identified community factors associated with patient movement out of seven hospitals evacuated during Hurricane Rita. This study represents the second of two systematic, observational, and retrospective investigations of seven acute care hospitals that reported off-site evacuations due to Hurricane Rita. Participants from each hospital included decision makers that comprised the Incident Management Team (IMT). Investigators applied a standardized interview process designed to assess evacuation factors related to external situational awareness of community activities during facility evacuation due to hurricanes. The measured outcomes were responses to 95 questions within six sections of the survey instrument. Investigators identified two factors that significantly impacted hospital IMT decision making: (1) incident characteristics affecting a facility's internal resources and challenges; and (2) incident characteristics affecting a facility's external evacuation activities. This article summarizes the latter and reports the following critical decision making points: (1) Emergency Operations Plans (EOP) were activated an average of 85 hours (3 days, 13 hours) prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall; (2) the decision to evacuate the hospital was made an average of 30 hours (1 day, 6 hours) from activation of the EOP; and (3) the implementation of the evacuation process took an average of 22 hours. Coordination of patient evacuations was most complicated by transportation deficits (the most significant of the 11 identified problem areas) and a lack of situational awareness of community response activities. All evacuation activities and subsequent evacuation times were negatively impacted by an overall lack of understanding on the part of hospital staff and the IMT regarding how to

Global outlook for nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Southworth, F.H.

2010-01-01

'Full text:' The global nuclear power forecast, the North American outlook and the effect of nuclear power growth on greenhouse gas emissions in North America will be discussed. The construction of Generation III reactors will replace aging power plants and, further, add capacity that is environmentally sustainable. The outlook for Generation IV reactors also may significantly improve the environmental balance after 2030, both in electrical markets, waste reduction, and in non-traditional markets such as process heat. (author)

Hurricane Season Public Health Preparedness, Response, and Recovery Guidance for Health Care Providers, Response and Recovery Workers, and Affected Communities - CDC, 2017.

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-22

CDC and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) have guidance and technical materials available in both English and Spanish to help communities prepare for hurricanes and floods (Table 1). To help protect the health and safety of the public, responders, and clean-up workers during response and recovery operations from hurricanes and floods, CDC and ATSDR have developed public health guidance and other resources; many are available in both English and Spanish (Table 2).

A diary of hurricane Hugo.

Science.gov (United States)

Counts, C S

1989-12-01

Charleston, South Carolina was the recent victim of Hurricane Hugo. This article recalls the events that occurred before, during, and after the hurricane struck. The focus is on four outpatient dialysis units in that area. It is a story from which others may learn more about emergency preparedness.

Hurricane Frances Poster (September 5, 2004)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Frances poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Frances over central Florida on September 5, 2004. Poster dimension is approximately...

Examining Hurricane Track Length and Stage Duration Since 1980

Science.gov (United States)

Fandrich, K. M.; Pennington, D.

2017-12-01

Each year, tropical systems impact thousands of people worldwide. Current research shows a correlation between the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and the changing climate. However, little is known about other prominent hurricane features. This includes information about hurricane track length (the total distance traveled from tropical depression through a hurricane's final category assignment) and how this distance may have changed with time. Also unknown is the typical duration of a hurricane stage, such as tropical storm to category one, and if the time spent in each stage has changed in recent decades. This research aims to examine changes in hurricane stage duration and track lengths for the 319 storms in NOAA's National Ocean Service Hurricane Reanalysis dataset that reached Category 2 - 5 from 1980 - 2015. Based on evident ocean warming, it is hypothesized that a general increase in track length with time will be detected, thus modern hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than past hurricanes. It is also expected that stage durations are decreasing with time so that hurricanes mature faster than in past decades. For each storm, coordinates are acquired at 4-times daily intervals throughout its duration and track lengths are computed for each 6-hour period. Total track lengths are then computed and storms are analyzed graphically and statistically by category for temporal track length changes. The stage durations of each storm are calculated as the time difference between two consecutive stages. Results indicate that average track lengths for Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes are increasing through time. These findings show that these hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than earlier Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes. In contrast, average track lengths for Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes are decreasing through time, showing less distance traveled than earlier decades. Stage durations for all Cat 2, 4 and 5 storms decrease through the decades but Cat 3 storms show a

Fast-food Culture and Americans’Outlooks on Life

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

易婧

2014-01-01

Fast-food is always the one of the main culture in America just like it has been known. It is not only very important in Americans’lives, but can reflect some of their outlooks on life. This thesis gives an analysis of reflection of Americans ’out-looks on life in fast-food culture. Five types of Americans’outlooks on life have been surveyed:working hard and playing hard, optimism and open-mindedness, treating the time as the life, self-independence and believing the equality. Beginning with the introduction of the emergence and development of fast-food culture in America, the thesis brings why the fast-food can be pop-ularized among Americans to light. Consequently, we can find that some of the Americans ’outlooks on life can be consistent with their fast-food culture.This thesis will be divided into four parts. The first part is the introduction and the last conclusion. The focus of this thesis is laid on the two middle parts which first display the five types of Americans ’outlooks on life, then give the analysis of the reflection in fast-food culture. This thesis attempts to explore the Americans ’outlooks on life. Although by the thesis we can not learn about a nation completely, we still know some aspects of their outlooks on life from fast-food culture.

Hurricane Isabel Poster (September 18, 2003)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Isabel poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Isabel making landfall on the North Carolina Outer Banks on September 18, 2003. Poster...

Hurricane Sandy Poster (October 29, 2012)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Sandy poster. Multi-spectral image from Suomi-NPP shows Hurricane Sandy approaching the New Jersey Coast on October 29, 2012. Poster size is approximately...

Hurricane Charley Poster (August 13, 2004)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Charley poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows a small but powerful hurricane heading toward southern Florida on August 13, 2004. Poster dimension...

Hurricane Jeanne Poster (September 25, 2004)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Jeanne poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Jeanne near Grand Bahama Island on September 25, 2004. Poster size is 34"x30".

Hurricane impacts on a pair of coastal forested watersheds: implications of selective hurricane damage to forest structure and streamflow dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Jayakaran, A. D.; Williams, T. M.; Ssegane, H.; Amatya, D. M.; Song, B.; Trettin, C. C.

2014-03-01

Hurricanes are infrequent but influential disruptors of ecosystem processes in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Every southeastern forested wetland has the potential to be struck by a tropical cyclone. We examined the impact of Hurricane Hugo on two paired coastal South Carolina watersheds in terms of streamflow and vegetation dynamics, both before and after the hurricane's passage in 1989. The study objectives were to quantify the magnitude and timing of changes including a reversal in relative streamflow difference between two paired watersheds, and to examine the selective impacts of a hurricane on the vegetative composition of the forest. We related these impacts to their potential contribution to change watershed hydrology through altered evapotranspiration processes. Using over 30 years of monthly rainfall and streamflow data we showed that there was a significant transformation in the hydrologic character of the two watersheds - a transformation that occurred soon after the hurricane's passage. We linked the change in the rainfall-runoff relationship to a catastrophic change in forest vegetation due to selective hurricane damage. While both watersheds were located in the path of the hurricane, extant forest structure varied between the two watersheds as a function of experimental forest management techniques on the treatment watershed. We showed that the primary damage was to older pines, and to some extent larger hardwood trees. We believe that lowered vegetative water use impacted both watersheds with increased outflows on both watersheds due to loss of trees following hurricane impact. However, one watershed was able to recover to pre hurricane levels of evapotranspiration at a quicker rate due to the greater abundance of pine seedlings and saplings in that watershed.

Shelf sediment transport during hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Kehui; Mickey, Rangley C.; Chen, Qin; Harris, Courtney K.; Hetland, Robert D.; Hu, Kelin; Wang, Jiaze

2016-05-01

Hurricanes can greatly modify the sedimentary record, but our coastal scientific community has rather limited capability to predict hurricane-induced sediment deposition. A three-dimensional sediment transport model was developed in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to study seabed erosion and deposition on the Louisiana shelf in response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the year 2005. Sensitivity tests were performed on both erosional and depositional processes for a wide range of erosional rates and settling velocities, and uncertainty analysis was done on critical shear stresses using the polynomial chaos approximation method. A total of 22 model runs were performed in sensitivity and uncertainty tests. Estimated maximum erosional depths were sensitive to the inputs, but horizontal erosional patterns seemed to be controlled mainly by hurricane tracks, wave-current combined shear stresses, seabed grain sizes, and shelf bathymetry. During the passage of two hurricanes, local resuspension and deposition dominated the sediment transport mechanisms. Hurricane Katrina followed a shelf-perpendicular track before making landfall and its energy dissipated rapidly within about 48 h along the eastern Louisiana coast. In contrast, Hurricane Rita followed a more shelf-oblique track and disturbed the seabed extensively during its 84-h passage from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Louisiana-Texas border. Conditions to either side of Hurricane Rita's storm track differed substantially, with the region to the east having stronger winds, taller waves and thus deeper erosions. This study indicated that major hurricanes can disturb the shelf at centimeter to meter levels. Each of these two hurricanes suspended seabed sediment mass that far exceeded the annual sediment inputs from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers, but the net transport from shelves to estuaries is yet to be determined. Future studies should focus on the modeling of sediment exchange between

Hurricane Hugo Poster (September 21, 1989)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Hugo poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-11 captures Hurricane Hugo slamming into South Carolina coast on September 21, 1989. Poster size is 36"x36".

Hurricane Ivan Poster (September 15, 2004)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Ivan poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Ivan in the Gulf of Mexico on September 15, 2004. Poster size is 34"x30".

Hurricane feedback research may improve intensity forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Colin

2012-06-01

Forecasts of a hurricane's intensity are generally much less accurate than forecasts of its most likely path. Large-scale atmospheric patterns dictate where a hurricane will go and how quickly it will get there. The storm's intensity, however, depends on small-scale shifts in atmospheric stratification, upwelling rates, and other transient dynamics that are difficult to predict. Properly understanding the risk posed by an impending storm depends on having a firm grasp of all three properties: translational speed, intensity, and path. Drawing on 40 years of hurricane records representing 3090 different storms, Mei et al. propose that a hurricane's translational speed and intensity may be closely linked.

Responses of Two Litter-Based Invertebrate Communities to Changes in Canopy Cover in a Forest Subject to Hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Barbara Richardson; Michael Richardson; Grizelle González

2018-01-01

Tropical forests are subject to seasonal hurricanes resulting in cycles of canopy opening and deposition of litter, followed by periods of recovery and canopy closure. Herein, we review two studies of litter-based communities in Puerto Rico; (i) a survey of bromeliad invertebrates in three montane forest types along an elevational gradient in 1993–1997, during a period...

Hurricane Wilma Poster (October 24, 2005)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Wilma poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-18 shows Hurricane Wilma exiting Florida off the east Florida coast on October 24, 2005. Poster size is 34"x30".

Physical aspects of Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Scatena, F.N.; Larsen, Matthew C.

1991-01-01

On 18 September 1989 the western part ofHurricane Hugo crossed eastern Puerto Rico and the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF). Storm-facing slopes on the northeastern part of the island that were within 15 km of the eye and received greater than 200 mm of rain were most affected by the storm. In the LEF and nearby area, recurrence intervals associated with Hurricane Hugo were 50 yr for wind velocity, 10 to 31 yr for stream discharge, and 5 yr for rainfall intensity. To compare the magnitudes of the six hurricanes to pass over PuertoRico since 1899, 3 indices were developed using the standardized values of the product of: the maximum sustained wind speed at San Juan squared and storm duration; the square of the product of the maximum sustained wind velocity at San Juan and the ratio of the distance between the hurricane eye and San Juan to the distance between the eye and percentage of average annual rainfall delivered by the storm. Based on these indices, HurricaneHugo was of moderate intensity. However, because of the path of Hurricane Hugo, only one of these six storms (the 1932 storm) caused more damage to the LEF than Hurricane Hugo. Hurricanes of Hugo's magnitude are estimated to pass over the LEF once every 50-60 yr, on average. 

Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-08-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1992 through the fourth quarter of 1993. Values for the second quarter of 1992, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding

On the Influence of Global Warming on Atlantic Hurricane Frequency

Science.gov (United States)

Hosseini, S. R.; Scaioni, M.; Marani, M.

2018-04-01

In this paper, the possible connection between the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes to the climate change, mainly the variation in the Atlantic Ocean surface temperature has been investigated. The correlation between the observed hurricane frequency for different categories of hurricane's intensity and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been examined over the Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis Regions (ACR). The results suggest that in general, the frequency of hurricanes have a high correlation with SST. In particular, the frequency of extreme hurricanes with Category 5 intensity has the highest correlation coefficient (R = 0.82). In overall, the analyses in this work demonstrates the influence of the climate change condition on the Atlantic hurricanes and suggest a strong correlation between the frequency of extreme hurricanes and SST in the ACR.

Gulf of Mexico hurricane wave simulations using SWAN : Bulk formula-based drag coefficient sensitivity for Hurricane Ike

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huang, Y.; Weisberg, R.H.; Zheng, L.; Zijlema, M.

2013-01-01

The effects of wind input parameterizations on wave estimations under hurricane conditions are examined using the unstructured grid, third-generation wave model, Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). Experiments using Hurricane Ike wind forcing, which impacted the Gulf of Mexico in 2008, illustrate

Isentropic Analysis of a Simulated Hurricane

Science.gov (United States)

Mrowiec, Agnieszka A.; Pauluis, Olivier; Zhang, Fuqing

2016-01-01

Hurricanes, like many other atmospheric flows, are associated with turbulent motions over a wide range of scales. Here the authors adapt a new technique based on the isentropic analysis of convective motions to study the thermodynamic structure of the overturning circulation in hurricane simulations. This approach separates the vertical mass transport in terms of the equivalent potential temperature of air parcels. In doing so, one separates the rising air parcels at high entropy from the subsiding air at low entropy. This technique filters out oscillatory motions associated with gravity waves and separates convective overturning from the secondary circulation. This approach is applied here to study the flow of an idealized hurricane simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The isentropic circulation for a hurricane exhibits similar characteristics to that of moist convection, with a maximum mass transport near the surface associated with a shallow convection and entrainment. There are also important differences. For instance, ascent in the eyewall can be readily identified in the isentropic analysis as an upward mass flux of air with unusually high equivalent potential temperature. The isentropic circulation is further compared here to the Eulerian secondary circulation of the simulated hurricane to show that the mass transport in the isentropic circulation is much larger than the one in secondary circulation. This difference can be directly attributed to the mass transport by convection in the outer rainband and confirms that, even for a strongly organized flow like a hurricane, most of the atmospheric overturning is tied to the smaller scales.

MITI revises outlooks for energy and power demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1987-01-01

The Ministry of International Trade and Industry has revised downward its long-term outlook on energy supply and demand, lowering the estimated primary energy demand for fiscal 2000 from 600 million tons in oil equivalent to 540 MTOE, and reducing total power demand for fiscal 2000 from 899.1 billion kWh to 838 billion. In this content, the outlook for installed nuclear capacity has been revised downward from 62,000 MW to 53,500 MW. This revision of the power supply-demand outlook was reported on Oct. 1 to the supply and demand committee (Chairman - Yoshihiko Morozumi, Adviser to Nippon Schlum-berger) of the Electric Utility Industry Council; the energy supply-demand outlook was decided on Oct. 14 by the MITI Supply and Demand Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee for Energy and reported on Oct. 16 to the conference of ministers concerned with energy. (author)

Hurricane Resilient Wind Plant Concept Study Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dibra, Besart [Keystone Engineering Inc., Vonore, TN (United States); Finucane, Zachary [Keystone Engineering Inc., Vonore, TN (United States); Foley, Benjamin [Keystone Engineering Inc., Vonore, TN (United States); Hall, Rudy [Keystone Engineering Inc., Vonore, TN (United States); Damiani, Rick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Maples, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Parker, Zachary [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Robertson, Amy [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Scott, George [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Stehly, Tyler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wendt, Fabian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Andersen, Mads Boel Overgaard [Siemens Wind Power A/S, Brande (Denmark); Standish, Kevin [Siemens Wind Power A/S, Brande (Denmark); Lee, Ken [Wetzel Engineering Inc., Round Rock, TX (United States); Raina, Amool [Wetzel Engineering Inc., Round Rock, TX (United States); Wetzel, Kyle [Wetzel Engineering Inc., Round Rock, TX (United States); Musial, Walter [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Schreck, Scott [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-10-01

Hurricanes occur over much of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, from Long Island to the U.S.-Mexico border, encompassing much of the nation's primary offshore wind resource. Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall as far north as North Carolina, with Category 3 hurricanes reaching New York with some frequency. Along the US West coast, typhoons strike with similar frequency and severity. At present, offshore wind turbine design practices do not fully consider the severe operating conditions imposed by hurricanes. Although universally applied to most turbine designs, International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standards do not sufficiently address the duration, directionality, magnitude, or character of hurricanes. To assess advanced design features that could mitigate hurricane loading in various ways, this Hurricane-Resilient Wind Plant Concept Study considered a concept design study of a 500-megawatt (MW) wind power plant consisting of 10-MW wind turbines deployed in 25-meter (m) water depths in the Western Gulf of Mexico. This location was selected because hurricane frequency and severity provided a unique set of design challenges that would enable assessment of hurricane risk and projection of cost of energy (COE) changes, all in response to specific U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) objectives. Notably, the concept study pursued a holistic approach that incorporated multiple advanced system elements at the wind turbine and wind power plant levels to meet objectives for system performance and reduced COE. Principal turbine system elements included a 10-MW rotor with structurally efficient, low-solidity blades; a lightweight, permanent-magnet, direct-drive generator, and an innovative fixed substructure. At the wind power plant level, turbines were arrayed in a large-scale wind power plant in a manner aimed at balancing energy production against capital, installation, and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve significant overall reductions in

Controlling a hurricane by altering its internal climate

Science.gov (United States)

Mardhekar, D.

2010-09-01

Atmospheric hazards, like the fury of a hurricane, can be controlled by altering its internal climate. The hurricane controlling technique suggested is eco-friendly, compatible with hurricane size, has a sound scientific base and is practically possible. The key factor is a large scale dilution of the hurricane fuel, vapour, in the eye wall and spiral rain bands where condensation causing vapor volume reduction (a new concept which can be explained by Avogadro's law) and latent heat release drive the storm. This can be achieved by installing multiple storage tanks containing dry liquefied air on the onshore and offshore coastal regions and islands, preferably underground, in the usual path of a hurricane. Each storage tank is designed to hold and release dry liquefied air of around 100,000 tons. Satellite tracking of hurricanes can locate the eye wall and the spiral rain bands. The installed storage tanks coming under these areas will rapidly inject dry air in huge quantities thereby diluting the vapour content of the vapour-rich air in the eye wall and in the spiral rain bands. This will result in reduced natural input of vapour-rich air, reduced release of latent heat, reduced formation of the low pressure zone due to condensation and volume reduction of the vapor, expansion of the artificially introduced dry air as it goes up occupying a larger space with the diluted fuel, absorption of energy from the system by low temperature of the artificially introduced air. It will effect considerable condensation of the vapor near the sea surface thus further starving the hurricane of its fuel in its engine. Seeding materials, or microscopic dust as suggested by Dr. Daniel Rosenfeld in large quantities may also be introduced via the flow of the injected dry air in order to enhance the hurricane controlling ability. All the above factors are in favour of retarding the hurricane's wind speed and power. The sudden weakening of hurricane Lili was found to be partially caused

Worldwide outlook clouded by market slump of late 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, R.J.

1994-01-01

Excess production and production capacity reasserted their influence in worldwide petroleum markets last year, pushing crude oil prices to their lowest levels since before the Persian Gulf crisis. The development ended the relative price stability that has characterized the period since the crisis ended in January 1991. One of the major questions now being asked is whether there has been a downward shift in the seasonal range of crude prices. In the near future, OPEC's degree of success in balancing the market will be a key to prices. Another is politics in the Middle East. If it were not for a United Nations embargo, the market would have another 2--3 million b/d of oil supply--from Iraq. The paper discusses worldwide demand, economic trends, the supply in 1993, the supply outlook, prices, and international drilling activities

Hurricane Recovery and Ecological Resilience: Measuring the Impacts of Wetland Alteration Post Hurricane Ike on the Upper TX Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Reja, Md Y.; Brody, Samuel D.; Highfield, Wesley E.; Newman, Galen D.

2017-12-01

Recovery after hurricane events encourages new development activities and allows reconstruction through the conversion of naturally occurring wetlands to other land uses. This research investigates the degree to which hurricane recovery activities in coastal communities are undermining the ability of these places to attenuate the impacts of future storm events. Specifically, it explores how and to what extent wetlands are being affected by the CWA Section 404 permitting program in the context of post-Hurricane Ike 2008 recovery. Wetland alteration patterns are examined by selecting a control group (Aransas and Brazoria counties with no hurricane impact) vs. study group (Chambers and Galveston counties with hurricane impact) research design with a pretest-posttest measurement analyzing the variables such as permit types, pre-post Ike permits, land cover classes, and within-outside the 100-year floodplain. Results show that permitting activities in study group have increased within the 100-year floodplain and palustrine wetlands continue to be lost compare to the control group. Simultaneously, post-Ike individual and nationwide permits increased in the Hurricane Ike impacted area. A binomial logistic regression model indicated that permits within the study group, undeveloped land cover class, and individual and nationwide permit type have a substantial effect on post-Ike permits, suggesting that post-Ike permits have significant impact on wetland losses. These findings indicate that recovery after the hurricane is compromising ecological resiliency in coastal communities. The study outcome may be applied to policy decisions in managing wetlands during a long-term recovery process to maintain natural function for future flood mitigation.

Posttraumatic stress disorder and community collective efficacy following the 2004 Florida hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ursano, Robert J; McKibben, Jodi B A; Reissman, Dori B; Liu, Xian; Wang, Leming; Sampson, Robert J; Fullerton, Carol S

2014-01-01

There is a paucity of research investigating the relationship of community-level characteristics such as collective efficacy and posttraumatic stress following disasters. We examine the association of collective efficacy with probable posttraumatic stress disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder symptom severity in Florida public health workers (n = 2249) exposed to the 2004 hurricane season using a multilevel approach. Anonymous questionnaires were distributed electronically to all Florida Department of Health personnel nine months after the 2004 hurricane season. The collected data were used to assess posttraumatic stress disorder and collective efficacy measured at both the individual and zip code levels. The majority of participants were female (80.42%), and ages ranged from 20 to 78 years (median = 49 years); 73.91% were European American, 13.25% were African American, and 8.65% were Hispanic. Using multi-level analysis, our data indicate that higher community-level and individual-level collective efficacy were associated with a lower likelihood of having posttraumatic stress disorder (OR = 0.93, CI = 0.88-0.98; and OR = 0.94, CI = 0.92-0.97, respectively), even after adjusting for individual sociodemographic variables, community socioeconomic characteristic variables, individual injury/damage, and community storm damage. Higher levels of community-level collective efficacy and individual-level collective efficacy were also associated with significantly lower posttraumatic stress disorder symptom severity (b = -0.22, pposttraumatic stress disorder are associated with communities with higher collective efficacy. Programs enhancing community collective efficacy may be an important part of prevention practices and possibly lead to a reduction in the rate of posttraumatic stress disorder post-disaster.

Tsunamis and Hurricanes A Mathematical Approach

CERN Document Server

Cap, Ferdinand

2006-01-01

Tsunamis and hurricanes have had a devastating impact on the population living near the coast during the year 2005. The calculation of the power and intensity of tsunamis and hurricanes are of great importance not only for engineers and meteorologists but also for governments and insurance companies. This book presents new research on the mathematical description of tsunamis and hurricanes. A combination of old and new approaches allows to derive a nonlinear partial differential equation of fifth order describing the steepening up and the propagation of tsunamis. The description includes dissipative terms and does not contain singularities or two valued functions. The equivalence principle of solutions of nonlinear large gas dynamics waves and of solutions of water wave equations will be used. An extension of the continuity equation by a source term due to evaporation rates of salt seawater will help to understand hurricanes. Detailed formula, tables and results of the calculations are given.

The new Met Office strategy for seasonal forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Hewson, T. D.

2012-04-01

In October 2011 the Met Office began issuing a new-format UK seasonal forecast, called "The 3-month Outlook". Government interest in a UK-relevant product had been heightened by infrastructure issues arising during the severe cold of previous winters. At the same time there was evidence that the Met Office's "GLOSEA4" long range forecasting system exhibited some hindcast skill for the UK, that was comparable to its hindcast skill for the larger (and therefore less useful) 'northern Europe' region. Also, the NAO- and AO- signals prevailing in the previous two winters had been highlighted by the GLOSEA4 model well in advance. This presentation will initially give a brief overview of GLOSEA4, describing key features such as evolving sea-ice, a well-resolved stratosphere, and the perturbation strategy. Skill measures will be shown, along with forecasts for the last 3 winters. The new structure 3-month outlook will then be described and presented. Previously, our seasonal forecasts had been based on a tercile approach. The new format outlook aims to substantially improve upon this by illustrating graphically, and with text, the full range of possible outcomes, and by placing those outcomes in the context of climatology. In one key component the forecast pdfs (probability density functions) are displayed alongside climatological pdfs. To generate the forecast pdf we take the bias-corrected GLOSEA4 output (42 members), and then incorporate, via expert team, all other relevant information. Firstly model forecasts from other centres are examined. Then external 'forcing factors', such as solar, and the state of the land-ocean-ice system, are referenced, assessing how well the models represent their influence, and bringing in statistical relationships where appropriate. The expert team thereby decides upon any changes to the GLOSEA4 data, employing an interactive tool to shift, expand or contract the forecast pdfs accordingly. The full modification process will be illustrated

IEA World Energy Outlook 2011—A comment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khatib, Hisham

2012-01-01

There are increasing numbers of annual and periodical energy studies that look into future energy demand and sustainability issues. Among these the World Energy Outlook stands out as the most important futuristic energy study and analysis. The 2011 Outlook is in four parts and gives a full update of energy demand and supply projections to 2035. It analyses the possible evolution of energy markets under three scenarios. The core scenarios rest on common assumptions about macroeconomic conditions and population growth, while their assumptions about government policy differ. This year's Outlook offers an in-depth analysis of prospects for energy supply and use in Russia. It also provides an expanded assessment of the prospects for coal. It reviewed the future of nuclear energy after Fukushima, as well as the strategic challenges of energy poverty. Last it dealt with the important aspect of energy subsidies. In spite of its extensiveness and in depth analysis some of the Outlook assumptions and conclusions need careful analysis and review.

Annual energy outlook 1993 with projections to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

The Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (AEO93) presents forecasts for energy prices, supply, demand, and imports over the period 1990 to 2010. These projections take into account existing legislation, including the Energy Policy Act of 1992. Even though the world oil market remains relatively tight, the long-term outlook for oil prices has been revised downward since the Annual Energy Outlook 1992 as expectations for both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC production potential have been revised upward. Domestic natural gas prices are also expected to be lower than projected last year, in part because of a more optimistic outlook for drilling technology. Finally, lower growth in the demand for electricity is expected because of the Energy Policy Act of 1992, which mandates efficiency standards for new energy-using equipment. These are the most striking differences between last year's EIA evaluation of long-term energy market trends and this year's evaluation

Revamping EAGLE-I and experiences during Hurricanes Harvey and Irma

Science.gov (United States)

Sanyal, J.; Chinthavali, S.; Myers, A.; Newby, S.; Redmon, D.

2017-12-01

EAGLE-I, the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information) is an operational system for the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE), Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration (ISER) division to provide near real-time situational awareness of the nation's energy sector. The system geospatially maps energy assets and systems in electricity, oil and natural gas, petroleum, and coal, and tie together a variety of data sources into one visualization platform. The system serves the needs of the ESF#12 (Emergency Support Function - Energy) community and has users from FEMA, USDA, DHS, and other federal and state emergency response agencies. During the hurricane season, the EAGLE-I team improved the coverage of electric customers in areas where the hurricanes were expected to make landfall, provided custom reports for Puerto Rico using whatever data was available, and supported various requests for data during the events. Various attempts were also made to establish a direct contact with utilities. Acute shortage of information was felt as utility systems went down, particularly in the territories, which led to considerations of using indirect mechanisms such as processing night lights imagery. As the EAGLE-I system undergoes a significant modernization, these experiences have helped understand and guide priorities in the modernization.

Landscape and regional impacts of hurricanes in Puerto Rico

OpenAIRE

Boose, Emery Robert; Serrano, Mayra I.; Foster, David Russell

2004-01-01

Puerto Rico is subject to frequent and severe impacts from hurricanes, whose long-term ecological role must be assessed on a scale of centuries. In this study we applied a method for reconstructing hurricane disturbance regimes developed in an earlier study of hurricanes in New England. Patterns of actual wind damage from historical records were analyzed for 85 hurricanes since European settlement in 1508. A simple meteorological model (HURRECON) was used to reconstruct the impacts of 43 hurr...

Positive Emotions and Your Health: Developing a Brighter Outlook

Science.gov (United States)

... Issues Subscribe August 2015 Print this issue Positive Emotions and Your Health Developing a Brighter Outlook En ... outlook doesn’t mean you never feel negative emotions, such as sadness or anger, says Dr. Barbara ...

International energy outlook, 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This report presents the current Energy Information Administration (EIA) assessment of the long-term outlook for international energy markets. The historic political and economic changes occurring in Easter Europe and the former Soviet Union will, no doubt, transform regional markets and world trade. This report pays particular attention to energy markets and resources in those countries that were once a part of the Centrally Planned Economies (CPE's) and how prospective changes in these countries might influence the energy outlook for the rest of the world. Several major EIA estimates determine, in large part, the resulting energy projections presented here. These include estimates of the energy intensity of economic activity; oil and natural gas production capacities; nuclear and hydroelectric generation capacities; international coal trade; and the rate of incremental energy requirements met by alternatives to oil

Outlook. Number 362

Science.gov (United States)

Council for American Private Education, 2011

2011-01-01

Council for American Private Education (CAPE) is a coalition of national associations serving private schools K-12. "Outlook" is published monthly by CAPE. This issue contains the following articles: (1) Boehner and Lieberman Introduce D.C. Choice Bill; (2) Research Demonstrates Benefits of School Choice; (3) NAEP [National Assessment …

2005 Significant U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Significant U.S. Hurricane Strikes poster is one of two special edition posters for the Atlantic Hurricanes. This beautiful poster contains two sets of...

Continental United States Hurricane Strikes 1950-2012

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...

Satellite sar detection of hurricane helene (2006)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ju, Lian; Cheng, Yongcun; Xu, Qing

2013-01-01

In this paper, the wind structure of hurricane Helene (2006) over the Atlantic Ocean is investigated from a C-band RADARSAT-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image acquired on 20 September 2006. First, the characteristics, e.g., the center, scale and area of the hurricane eye (HE) are determined. ...... observations from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) on NOAA P3 aircraft. All the results show the capability of hurricane monitoring by satellite SAR. Copyright © 2013 by the International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE)....

Short-term energy outlook, January 1999

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-01-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

Financial outlook for the Canadian gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friedenberg, B.

1995-01-01

The financial outlook for the Canadian gas industry depends on the outlook for gas prices at Canadian producing basins, the cost of producing in Canada and the volume of production of Canadian natural gas. Price, cost and volume determine the health of the Canadian industry. Industry's costs are the basis of the supply (volume) offered on the market and price is determined by the interaction of supply and demand. (author)

Hurricane Sandy: Shared Trauma and Therapist Self-Disclosure.

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, Nyapati; Mehra, Ashwin

2015-01-01

Hurricane Sandy was one of the most devastating storms to hit the United States in history. The impact of the hurricane included power outages, flooding in the New York City subway system and East River tunnels, disrupted communications, acute shortages of gasoline and food, and a death toll of 113 people. In addition, thousands of residences and businesses in New Jersey and New York were destroyed. This article chronicles the first author's personal and professional experiences as a survivor of the hurricane, more specifically in the dual roles of provider and trauma victim, involving informed self-disclosure with a patient who was also a victim of the hurricane. The general analytic framework of therapy is evaluated in the context of the shared trauma faced by patient and provider alike in the face of the hurricane, leading to important implications for future work on resilience and recovery for both the therapist and patient.

Hurricane impacts on a pair of coastal forested watersheds: implications of selective hurricane damage to forest structure and streamflow dynamics

OpenAIRE

A. D. Jayakaran; T. M. Williams; H. Ssegane; D. M. Amatya; B. Song; C. C. Trettin

2014-01-01

Hurricanes are infrequent but influential disruptors of ecosystem processes in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Every southeastern forested wetland has the potential to be struck by a tropical cyclone. We examined the impact of Hurricane Hugo on two paired coastal watersheds in South Carolina in terms of stream flow and vegetation dynamics, both before and after the hurricane's passage in 1989. The study objectives were to quantify the magnitude and timing of changes including a rev...

ON THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING ON ATLANTIC HURRICANE FREQUENCY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. R. Hosseini

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the possible connection between the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes to the climate change, mainly the variation in the Atlantic Ocean surface temperature has been investigated. The correlation between the observed hurricane frequency for different categories of hurricane’s intensity and Sea Surface Temperature (SST has been examined over the Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis Regions (ACR. The results suggest that in general, the frequency of hurricanes have a high correlation with SST. In particular, the frequency of extreme hurricanes with Category 5 intensity has the highest correlation coefficient (R = 0.82. In overall, the analyses in this work demonstrates the influence of the climate change condition on the Atlantic hurricanes and suggest a strong correlation between the frequency of extreme hurricanes and SST in the ACR.

Longitudinal Impact of Hurricane Sandy Exposure on Mental Health Symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Rebecca M; Gillezeau, Christina N; Liu, Bian; Lieberman-Cribbin, Wil; Taioli, Emanuela

2017-08-24

Hurricane Sandy hit the eastern coast of the United States in October 2012, causing billions of dollars in damage and acute physical and mental health problems. The long-term mental health consequences of the storm and their predictors have not been studied. New York City and Long Island residents completed questionnaires regarding their initial Hurricane Sandy exposure and mental health symptoms at baseline and 1 year later (N = 130). There were statistically significant decreases in anxiety scores (mean difference = -0.33, p Hurricane Sandy has an impact on PTSD symptoms that persists over time. Given the likelihood of more frequent and intense hurricanes due to climate change, future hurricane recovery efforts must consider the long-term effects of hurricane exposure on mental health, especially on PTSD, when providing appropriate assistance and treatment.

Outlook for the U.S. alkylation industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Felten, J.R.; Bradshaw, T.; McCarthy, K.

1994-01-01

Alkylation has long been recognized in the refining industry as one of the best options to convert refinery olefins into valuable, clean, high octane blending components. In fact, refinery alkylation is a preferred source of blending stocks for reformulated gasoline. However, the hydrofluoric acid (HF) alkylation process and, to a lesser extent, the sulfuric acid (SA) process have come under increasing pressure in the US due to safety and environmental concerns. This paper examines the current outlook for the US alkylation industry including: key trends and driving forces in the industry, the impact of environmental issues on both HF and SA alkylation, US alkylation supply/demand forecast including the outlook for oxygenates, how US refines will respond to the increased demand and restricted supply for alkylates, and the outlook for new solid acid alkylation (SAC) technology

Satellite Images and Aerial Photographs of the Effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on Coastal Louisiana

Science.gov (United States)

Barras, John A.

2007-01-01

Introduction Hurricane Katrina made landfall on the eastern coastline of Louisiana on August 29, 2005; Hurricane Rita made landfall on the western coastline of Louisiana on September 24, 2005. Comparison of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery acquired before and after the landfalls of Katrina and Rita and classified to identify land and water demonstrated that water area increased by 217 mi2 (562 km2) in coastal Louisiana as a result of the storms. Approximately 82 mi2 (212 km2) of new water areas were in areas primarily impacted by Hurricane Katrina (Mississippi River Delta basin, Breton Sound basin, Pontchartrain basin, and Pearl River basin), whereas 99 mi2 (256 km2) were in areas primarily impacted by Hurricane Rita (Calcasieu/Sabine basin, Mermentau basin, Teche/Vermilion basin, Atchafalaya basin, and Terrebonne basin). Barataria basin contained new water areas caused by both hurricanes, resulting in some 18 mi2 (46.6 km2) of new water areas. The fresh marsh and intermediate marsh communities' land areas decreased by 122 mi2 (316 km2) and 90 mi2 (233.1 km2), respectively, and the brackish marsh and saline marsh communities' land areas decreased by 33 mi2 (85.5 km2) and 28 mi2 (72.5 km2), respectively. These new water areas represent land losses caused by direct removal of wetlands. They also indicate transitory changes in water area caused by remnant flooding, removal of aquatic vegetation, scouring of marsh vegetation, and water-level variation attributed to normal tidal and meteorological variation between satellite images. Permanent losses cannot be estimated until several growing seasons have passed and the transitory impacts of the hurricanes are minimized. The purpose of this study was to provide preliminary information on water area changes in coastal Louisiana acquired shortly after the landfalls of both hurricanes (detectable with Landsat TM imagery) and to serve as a regional baseline for monitoring posthurricane wetland recovery. The land

Kaons Review and Outlook

CERN Document Server

Ceccucci, A

2006-01-01

This article presents a review of recent results and an outlook of kaon physics. After enjoying a renaissance, the discipline is now becoming and endangered species. Action will be needed to keep kaon physics at the heart of future FPCP meetings.

Numerical modeling of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and potential future hurricanes on spatial patterns of salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hongqing; Chen, Qin; Hu, Kelin; Snedden, Gregg A.; Hartig, Ellen K.; Couvillion, Brady R.; Johnson, Cody L.; Orton, Philip M.

2017-03-29

The salt marshes of Jamaica Bay, managed by the New York City Department of Parks & Recreation and the Gateway National Recreation Area of the National Park Service, serve as a recreational outlet for New York City residents, mitigate flooding, and provide habitat for critical wildlife species. Hurricanes and extra-tropical storms have been recognized as one of the critical drivers of coastal wetland morphology due to their effects on hydrodynamics and sediment transport, deposition, and erosion processes. However, the magnitude and mechanisms of hurricane effects on sediment dynamics and associated coastal wetland morphology in the northeastern United States are poorly understood. In this study, the depth-averaged version of the Delft3D modeling suite, integrated with field measurements, was utilized to examine the effects of Hurricane Sandy and future potential hurricanes on salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City. Hurricane Sandy-induced wind, waves, storm surge, water circulation, sediment transport, deposition, and erosion were simulated by using the modeling system in which vegetation effects on flow resistance, surge reduction, wave attenuation, and sedimentation were also incorporated. Observed marsh elevation change and accretion from a rod surface elevation table and feldspar marker horizons and cesium-137- and lead-210-derived long-term accretion rates were used to calibrate and validate the wind-waves-surge-sediment transport-morphology coupled model.The model results (storm surge, waves, and marsh deposition and erosion) agreed well with field measurements. The validated modeling system was then used to detect salt marsh morphological change due to Hurricane Sandy across the entire Jamaica Bay over the short-term (for example, 4 days and 1 year) and long-term (for example, 5 and 10 years). Because Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Irene (2011) were two large and destructive tropical cyclones which hit the northeast coast, the validated coupled

Hurricane Impacts to Tropical and Temperate Forest Landscapes

OpenAIRE

Boose, Emery Robert; Foster, David Russell; Fluet, Marcheterre

1994-01-01

Hurricanes represent an important natural disturbance process to tropical and temperate forests in many coastal areas of the world. The complex patterns of damage created in forests by hurricane winds result from the interaction of meteorological, physiographic, and biotic factors on a range of spatial scales. To improve our understanding of these factors and of the role of catastrophic hurricane wind as a disturbance process, we take an integrative approach. A simple meteorological model (HU...

Geologic record of Hurricane impacts on the New Jersey coast

Science.gov (United States)

Nikitina, Daria; Horton, Benjamin; Khan, Nicole; Clear, Jennifer; Shaw, Timothy; Enache, Mihaela; Frizzera, Dorina; Procopio, Nick; Potapova, Marina

2016-04-01

Hurricanes along the US Atlantic coast have caused significant damage and loss of human life over the last century. Recent studies suggest that intense-hurricane activity is closely related to changes of sea surface temperatures and therefore the risk of hurricane strikes may increase in the future. A clear understanding of the role of recent warming on tropical cyclone activity is limited by the shortness of the instrumental record. However, the sediment preserved beneath coastal wetlands is an archive of when hurricanes impacted the coast. We present two complimenting approaches that help to extend pre-historic record and assess frequency and intensity of hurricane landfalls along the New Jersey cost; dating overwash deposits and hurricane-induced salt-marsh erosion documented at multiple sites. The stratigraphic investigation of estuarine salt marshes in the southern New Jersey documented seven distinctive erosion events that correlate among different sites. Radiocarbon dates suggest the prehistoric events occurred in AD 558-673, AD 429-966, AD 558-673, Ad 1278-1438, AD 1526-1558 or AD 1630-1643 (Nikitina et al., 2014). Younger sequences correspond with historical land-falling hurricanes in AD 1903 and AD 1821 or AD 1788. Four events correlate well with barrier overwash deposits documented along the New Jersey coast (Donnelley et al., 2001 and 2004). The stratigraphic sequence of salt High resolution sedimentary-based reconstructions of past intense-hurricane landfalls indicate that significant variability in the frequency of intense hurricanes occurred over the last 2000 years.

Model Forecast Skill and Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in the Seasonal Sea Ice Outlook

Science.gov (United States)

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.; Cullather, R. I.; Wang, W.; Zhang, J.; Bitz, C. M.

2015-01-01

We explore the skill of predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent from dynamical models participating in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Forecasts submitted in August, at roughly 2 month lead times, are skillful. However, skill is lower in forecasts submitted to SIO, which began in 2008, than in hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the last few decades. The multimodel mean SIO predictions offer slightly higher skill than the single-model SIO predictions, but neither beats a damped persistence forecast at longer than 2 month lead times. The models are largely unsuccessful at predicting each other, indicating a large difference in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, we perform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four SIO models, applying a fixed -1 m perturbation to the initial sea ice thickness. The significant range of the response among the models suggests that different model physics make a significant contribution to forecast uncertainty.

Skill Assessment of Water Supply Outlooks in the Colorado River Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brent Harrison

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Water-supply outlooks that predict the April through July (snowmelt runoff and assist in estimating the total water-year runoff, are very important to users that rely on the major contributing watersheds of the Colorado River. This study reviewed the skill level of April through July forecasts at 28 forecast points within the Colorado River basin. All the forecasts were made after 1950, with considerable variation in time period covered. Evaluations of the forecasts were made using summary measures, correlation measures and categorical measures. The summary measure, a skill score for mean absolute error, indicated a steady increase in forecast skill through the forecast season of January to May. The width of the distribution for each monthly forecast over the 28 locations remained similar through the forecast season. The Nash-Sutcliffe score, a correlation measure, showed similar results, with the Nash-Sutcliffe median showing an increase from 0.4 to 0.8 during the forecast season. The categorical measures used a three-section partition of the April through July runoff. The Probability of Detection for low and high flows showed an increase in skill from approx. 0.4 to 0.8 during the forecast season. The same score for mid-flow years showed limited increase in skill. The low False Alarm Rate illustrated the under forecast of high-flow years. The Bias of the mid-runoff forecasts indicated over forecast early in the forecast season (January to March, with lower Bias later in the forecast season (April and May, ending the forecast season at 1.0, indicating no Bias. Forecasts for both low and high runoff were under forecast early in the season with a Bias near 0.5, improving to nearly 1.0 by the end of the forecast season. The Hit Rate measure illustrated the difficulty of mid-flow forecasts, starting at 0.5 in January and increasing to 0.75 in May due to the forecasting assumption of normal climatology for the remaining forecast period. There was no

On the relationship between hurricane cost and the integrated wind profile

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, S.; Toumi, R.

2016-11-01

It is challenging to identify metrics that best capture hurricane destructive potential and costs. Although it has been found that the sea surface temperature and vertical wind shear can both make considerable changes to the hurricane destructive potential metrics, it is still unknown which plays a more important role. Here we present a new method to reconstruct the historical wind structure of hurricanes that allows us, for the first time, to calculate the correlation of damage with integrated power dissipation and integrated kinetic energy of all hurricanes at landfall since 1988. We find that those metrics, which include the horizontal wind structure, rather than just maximum intensity, are much better correlated with the hurricane cost. The vertical wind shear over the main development region of hurricanes plays a more dominant role than the sea surface temperature in controlling these metrics and therefore also ultimately the cost of hurricanes.

Outlook 2001

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2000-01-01

ABARE's Executive Director, Brian Fisher in his address at the annual assembly of economists and commodity producers (Outlook 2001) indicated that the world economic growth, which is of critical importance to the direction of world commodity prices, is assumed to ease in 2001 but to strengthen in 2002. Yet despite the slower world economic growth he forecast that Australia's commodity exports would rise to be worth $86 billion in 2000-2001 and $89 billion in 2001 - 2002 reflecting a relatively low Australian dollar. The value of commodity exports is then forecast to trend downwards in real terms for the remainder of the outlook period to 2005-2006. In preparing commodity projections ABARE assumed world economic growth to moderate to around 3.4% in 2001, and then strengthen to 3.9%, in 2002 supported by lower interest rates in key economies. Activity in the Australian economy is assumed to remain reasonably firm in the short term. While growth in domestic demand is likely to moderate, export performance is expected to remain strong. There has been a remarkable improvement in Australia's trade performance during the last year. This improvement is expected to continue in the short term. For energy commodities, export earnings are forecast to increase from $18.4 billion in 1999-2000 to $25.1 billion in 2000-2001 before declining to $24.4 billion in 2001-2002

Effects of hurricanes and climate oscillations on annual variation in reproduction in wet forest, Puerto Rico.

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmerman, Jess K; Hogan, James Aaron; Nytch, Christopher J; Bithorn, John E

2018-06-01

Interannual changes in global climate and weather disturbances may influence reproduction in tropical forests. Phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to produce interannual variation in reproduction, as do severe storms such as hurricanes. Using stationary trap-based phenology data collected fortnightly from 1993 to 2014 from a hurricane-affected (1989 Hugo, 1998 Georges) subtropical wet forest in northeastern Puerto Rico, we conducted a time series analysis of flowering and seed production. We addressed (1) the degree to which interannual variation in flower and seed production was influenced by global climate drivers and time since hurricane disturbance, and (2) how long-term trends in reproduction varied with plant lifeform. The seasonally de-trended number of species in flower fluctuated over time while the number of species producing seed exhibited a declining trend, one that was particularly evident during the second half of the study period. Lagged El Niño indices and time series hurricane disturbance jointly influenced the trends in numbers of flowering and fruiting species, suggesting complex global influences on tropical forest reproduction with variable periodicities. Lag times affecting flowering tended to be longer than those affecting fruiting. Long-term patterns of reproduction in individual lifeforms paralleled the community-wide patterns, with most groups of lifeform exhibiting a long-term decline in seed but not flower production. Exceptions were found for hemiepiphytes, small trees, and lianas whose seed reproduction increased and then declined over time. There was no long-term increase in flower production as reported in other Neotropical sites. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

2017-01-01

Abstract Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead‐of‐eye‐center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation‐validated, high‐resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid‐Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)—with an inshore Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season—and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)—with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead‐of‐eye‐center depth‐averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead‐of‐eye‐center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3‐D coupled atmosphere‐ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels. PMID:28944132

Hurricane Harvey Report : A fact-finding effort in the direct aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in the Greater Houston Region

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sebastian, A.G.; Lendering, K.T.; Kothuis, B.L.M.; Brand, A.D.; Jonkman, S.N.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Kolen, B.; Comes, M.; Lhermitte, S.L.M.; Meesters, K.J.M.G.; van de Walle, B.A.; Ebrahimi Fard, A.; Cunningham, S.; Khakzad Rostami, N.; Nespeca, V.

2017-01-01

On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of approximately 200 km/hour. Harvey caused severe damages in coastal Texas due to extreme winds and storm surge, but will go down in history for record-setting rainfall

Tracks of Major Hurricanes of the Western Hemisphere

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This 36"x24" National Hurricane Center poster depicts the complete tracks of all major hurricanes in the north Atlantic and eastern north Pacific basins since as...

Waste management outlook for mountain regions: Sources and solutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Semernya, Larisa; Ramola, Aditi; Alfthan, Björn; Giacovelli, Claudia

2017-09-01

Following the release of the global waste management outlook in 2015, the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment), through its International Environmental Technology Centre, is elaborating a series of region-specific and thematic waste management outlooks that provide policy recommendations and solutions based on current practices in developing and developed countries. The Waste Management Outlook for Mountain Regions is the first report in this series. Mountain regions present unique challenges to waste management; while remoteness is often associated with costly and difficult transport of waste, the potential impact of waste pollutants is higher owing to the steep terrain and rivers transporting waste downstream. The Outlook shows that waste management in mountain regions is a cross-sectoral issue of global concern that deserves immediate attention. Noting that there is no 'one solution fits all', there is a need for a more landscape-type specific and regional research on waste management, the enhancement of policy and regulatory frameworks, and increased stakeholder engagement and awareness to achieve sustainable waste management in mountain areas. This short communication provides an overview of the key findings of the Outlook and highlights aspects that need further research. These are grouped per source of waste: Mountain communities, tourism, and mining. Issues such as waste crime, plastic pollution, and the linkages between exposure to natural disasters and waste are also presented.

Hurricanes accelerated the Florida-Bahamas lionfish invasion.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, Matthew W; Purkis, Sam J

2015-06-01

In this study, we demonstrate how perturbations to the Florida Current caused by hurricanes are relevant to the spread of invasive lionfish from Florida to the Bahamas. Without such perturbations, this current represents a potential barrier to the transport of planktonic lionfish eggs and larvae across the Straits of Florida. We further show that once lionfish became established in the Bahamas, hurricanes significantly hastened their spread through the island chain. We gain these insights through: (1) an analysis of the direction and velocity of simulated ocean currents during the passage of hurricanes through the Florida Straits and (2) the development of a biophysical model that incorporates the tolerances of lionfish to ocean climate, their reproductive strategy, and duration that the larvae remain viable in the water column. On the basis of this work, we identify 23 occasions between the years 1992 and 2006 in which lionfish were provided the opportunity to breach the Florida Current. We also find that hurricanes during this period increased the rate of spread of lionfish through the Bahamas by more than 45% and magnified its population by at least 15%. Beyond invasive lionfish, we suggest that extreme weather events such as hurricanes likely help to homogenize the gene pool for all Caribbean marine species susceptible to transport. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Short-term energy outlook, July 1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-07-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

Hurricane Katrina Wind Investigation Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Desjarlais, A. O.

2007-08-15

This investigation of roof damage caused by Hurricane Katrina is a joint effort of the Roofing Industry Committee on Weather Issues, Inc. (RICOWI) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory/U.S. Department of Energy (ORNL/DOE). The Wind Investigation Program (WIP) was initiated in 1996. Hurricane damage that met the criteria of a major windstorm event did not materialize until Hurricanes Charley and Ivan occurred in August 2004. Hurricane Katrina presented a third opportunity for a wind damage investigation in August 29, 2005. The major objectives of the WIP are as follows: (1) to investigate the field performance of roofing assemblies after major wind events; (2) to factually describe roofing assembly performance and modes of failure; and (3) to formally report results of the investigations and damage modes for substantial wind speeds The goal of the WIP is to perform unbiased, detailed investigations by credible personnel from the roofing industry, the insurance industry, and academia. Data from these investigations will, it is hoped, lead to overall improvement in roofing products, systems, roofing application, and durability and a reduction in losses, which may lead to lower overall costs to the public. This report documents the results of an extensive and well-planned investigative effort. The following program changes were implemented as a result of the lessons learned during the Hurricane Charley and Ivan investigations: (1) A logistics team was deployed to damage areas immediately following landfall; (2) Aerial surveillance--imperative to target wind damage areas--was conducted; (3) Investigation teams were in place within 8 days; (4) Teams collected more detailed data; and (5) Teams took improved photographs and completed more detailed photo logs. Participating associations reviewed the results and lessons learned from the previous investigations and many have taken the following actions: (1) Moved forward with recommendations for new installation procedures

Hurricane impacts on US forest carbon sequestration

Science.gov (United States)

Steven G. McNulty

2002-01-01

Recent focus has been given to US forests as a sink for increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Current estimates of US Forest carbon sequestration average approximately 20 Tg (i.e. 1012 g) year. However, predictions of forest carbon sequestration often do not include the influence of hurricanes on forest carbon storage. Intense hurricanes...

Spatial structure of directional wave spectra in hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Esquivel-Trava, Bernardo; Ocampo-Torres, Francisco J.; Osuna, Pedro

2015-01-01

The spatial structure of the wave field during hurricane conditions is studied using the National Data Buoy Center directional wave buoy data set from the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The buoy information, comprising the directional wave spectra during the passage of several hurricanes, was referenced to the center of the hurricane using the path of the hurricane, the propagation velocity, and the radius of the maximum winds. The directional wave spectra were partitioned into their main components to quantify the energy corresponding to the observed wave systems and to distinguish between wind-sea and swell. The findings are consistent with those found using remote sensing data (e.g., Scanning Radar Altimeter data). Based on the previous work, the highest waves are found in the right forward quadrant of the hurricane, where the spectral shape tends to become uni-modal, in the vicinity of the region of maximum winds. More complex spectral shapes are observed in distant regions at the front of and in the rear quadrants of the hurricane, where there is a tendency of the spectra to become bi- and tri-modal. The dominant waves generally propagate at significant angles to the wind direction, except in the regions next to the maximum winds of the right quadrants. Evidence of waves generated by concentric eyewalls associated with secondary maximum winds was also found. The frequency spectra display some of the characteristics of the JONSWAP spectrum adjusted by Young (J Geophys Res 111:8020, 2006); however, at the spectral peak, the similarity with the Pierson-Moskowitz spectrum is clear. These results establish the basis for the use in assessing the ability of numerical models to simulate the wave field in hurricanes.

Hurricane preparedness among elderly residents in South Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Kleier, Jo Ann; Krause, Deirdre; Ogilby, Terry

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to describe factors associated with hurricane preparation and to test a theoretical model of hurricane preparation decision process among a group of elderly residents living in a high-risk geographical area. This is a descriptive, correlational study. A convenience sample consisted of 188 English-speaking individuals who were aged 55 years or older. In addition to demographic information, two survey instruments were used. Theoretical constructs were operationalized through Moon's Hurricane Preparation Questionnaire. Hurricane preparedness was measured by self-reported responses to FEMA's inventory checklist, which addresses the recommended basic steps of preparation. The theoretical model of hurricane preparation decision process was supported. Main barriers to preparation are the need for cooperation from others and cost of preparation. Participants reported having taken many preparatory steps to shelter-in-place, but too few are prepared if their home were storm-damaged or they should have to evacuate. Findings are consistent with previous studies of samples drawn from similar populations. This report provides guidance as to how public health nurses can become involved with the population and develop interventions based on the constructs of the theoretical model. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

"Just-in-Time" Personal Preparedness: Downloads and Usage Patterns of the American Red Cross Hurricane Application During Hurricane Sandy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirsch, Thomas D; Circh, Ryan; Bissell, Richard A; Goldfeder, Matthew

2016-10-01

Personal preparedness is a core activity but has been found to be frequently inadequate. Smart phone applications have many uses for the public, including preparedness. In 2012 the American Red Cross began releasing "disaster" apps for family preparedness and recovery. The Hurricane App was widely used during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Patterns of download of the application were analyzed by using a download tracking tool by the American Red Cross and Google Analytics. Specific variables included date, time, and location of individual downloads; number of page visits and views; and average time spent on pages. As Hurricane Sandy approached in late October, daily downloads peaked at 152,258 on the day of landfall and by mid-November reached 697,585. Total page views began increasing on October 25 with over 4,000,000 page views during landfall compared to 3.7 million the first 3 weeks of October with a 43,980% increase in views of the "Right Before" page and a 76,275% increase in views of the "During" page. The Hurricane App offered a new type of "just-in-time" training that reached tens of thousands of families in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy. The app allowed these families to access real-time information before and after the storm to help them prepare and recover. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;page 1 of 6).

An Axisymmetric View of Concentric Eyewall Evolution in Hurricane Rita (2005)

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-01

of Hurricane Hugo (1989). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1237–1259. Martinez, Y., G. Brunet, and M. K. Yau, 2010: On the dynamics of two-dimensional hurricane ...An Axisymmetric View of Concentric Eyewall Evolution in Hurricane Rita (2005) MICHAEL M. BELL Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, and... Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida WEN-CHAU LEE National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado (Manuscript received 23 June 2011, in

Weathering the storm: challenges to nurses providing care to nursing home residents during hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Hyer, Kathryn; Brown, Lisa M; Christensen, Janelle J; Thomas, Kali S

2009-11-01

This article documents the experience of 291 Florida nursing homes during the 2004 hurricane season. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, the authors described and compared the challenges nurses encountered when evacuating residents with their experiences assisting residents of facilities that sheltered in place. The primary concerns for evacuating facilities were accessing appropriate evacuation sites for residents and having ambulance transportation contracts honored. The main issue for facilities that sheltered in place was the length of time it took for power to be restored. Barriers to maintaining resident health during disasters for those who evacuated or sheltered in place are identified.

Gas Storage in Europe, recent developments and outlook to 2035

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hureau, Geoffroy

2015-01-01

These slides present: the European gas storage market in 2014 (Review of 2014 trends, Current challenges, Role of storage); the Outlook to 2035 (Supply/Demand factors, Estimated Storage needs, Project backlog). In conclusion: an over capacity is expected until 2025.Supply and demand evolution, market liberalization and environmental constraints on coal will drive a new period of growth for UGS. Cedigaz estimates that European UGS capacity will increase by around 45 bcm by 2035. UGS projects represent 77 bcm Of which 22 bcm is under construction, there is a majority of salt-cavern projects (market liberalization), not so much new seasonal storage (security of supply?), not all planned storage will be built (Projects under competition for the same (regional) market, the situation is quite contrasted between NW Europe and South-Southeast Europe (and UK)). The challenges are the investment and the security of supply

Assessing Seasonal Climate Forecasts over Africa to Support Decision-Making : Bridging Science and Policy Implication for Managing Climate Extremes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wanders, Niko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Wood, Eric F.

2018-01-01

Recent drought events like in the 2011 Horn of Africa and the ongoing drought in California have an enormous impact on nature and society. Reliable seasonal weather outlooks are critical for drought management and other applications like, crop modelling, flood forecasting and planning of reservoir

Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-11-05

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

Near-real-time Forensic Disaster Analysis: experiences from hurricane Sandy

Science.gov (United States)

Kunz, Michael; Mühr, Bernhard; Schröter, Kai; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Daniell, James; Khazai, Bijan; Wenzel, Friedemann; Vannieuwenhuyse, Marjorie; Comes, Tina; Münzberg, Thomas; Elmer, Florian; Fohringer, Joachim; Lucas, Christian; Trieselmann, Werner; Zschau, Jochen

2013-04-01

Hurricane Sandy was the last tropical cyclone of the 2012 Northern Atlantic Hurricane season that made landfall. It moved on an unusual track from the Caribbean to the East Coast of the United States from 24 to 30 October as a Category 1 and 2 Hurricane according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Along its path, the severe storm event caused widespread damage including almost 200 fatalities. In the early hours of 30 October, Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. Sandy was an extraordinary event due to its multihazard nature and several cascading effects in the aftermath. From the hydro-meteorological perspective, most unusual was the very large spatial extent of up to 1,700 km. High wind speeds were associated with record breaking storm surges at the U.S. Mid- Atlantic and New England Coast during high (astronomical) tide, leading to widespread flooding. Though Sandy was not the most severe storm event in terms of wind speed and precipitation, the impact in the U.S. was enormous with total damage estimates of up to 90 billion US (own estimate from Dec. 2012). Although much better data emerge weeks after such an event, the Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) Task Force of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) made an effort to obtain a comprehensive and holistic overview of the causes, hazardous effects and consequences associated with Sandy immediately after landfall at the U.S. coast on 30 October 2012. This was done in an interdisciplinary way by collecting and compiling scattered and distributed information from available databases and sources via the Internet, by applying own methodologies and models for near-real time analyses developed in recent years, and by expert knowledge. This contribution gives an overview about the CEDIM-FDA analyses' results. It describes the situation that led to the extraordinary event, highlights the interaction of the tropical cyclone with other hydro-meteorological events, and examines the

Increased Sensitization to Mold Allergens Measured by Intradermal Skin Testing following Hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Saporta, Diego; Hurst, David

2017-01-01

Objective . To report on changes in sensitivity to mold allergens determined by changes in intradermal skin testing reactivity, after exposure to two severe hurricanes. Methods . A random, retrospective allergy charts review divided into 2 groups of 100 patients each: Group A, patients tested between 2003 and 2010 prior to hurricanes, and Group B, patients tested in 2014 and 2015 following hurricanes. Reactivity to eighteen molds was determined by intradermal skin testing. Test results, age, and respiratory symptoms were recorded. Chi-square test determined reactivity/sensitivity differences between groups. Results . Posthurricane patients had 34.6 times more positive results ( p hurricanes ( p hurricanes ( p hurricanes. This supports climatologists' hypothesis that environmental changes resulting from hurricanes can be a health risk as reflected in increased allergic sensitivities and symptoms and has significant implications for physicians treating patients from affected areas.

Nurses respond to Hurricane Hugo victims' disaster stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Weinrich, S; Hardin, S B; Johnson, M

1990-06-01

Hugo, a class IV hurricane, hit South Carolina September 22, 1989, and left behind a wake of terror and destruction. Sixty-one nursing students and five faculty were involved in disaster relief with families devastated by the hurricane. A review of the literature led these authors to propose a formulation of the concept of disaster stress, a synthesis of theories that explains response to disaster as a crisis response, a stress response, or as posttraumatic stress. With the concept of disaster stress serving as a theoretical foundation, the nurses observed, assessed, and intervened with one population of hurricane Hugo victims, noting their immediate psychosocial reactions and coping mechanisms. Victims' reactions to disaster stress included confusion, irritability, lethargy, withdrawal, and crying. The most frequently observed coping strategy of these hurricane Hugo victims was talking about their experiences; other coping tactics involved humor, religion, and altruism.

Hurricane Sandy, Disaster Preparedness, and the Recovery Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Pizzi, Michael A

2015-01-01

Hurricane Sandy was the second largest and costliest hurricane in U.S. history to affect multiple states and communities. This article describes the lived experiences of 24 occupational therapy students who lived through Hurricane Sandy using the Recovery Model to frame the research. Occupational therapy student narratives were collected and analyzed using qualitative methods and framed by the Recovery Model. Directed content and thematic analysis was performed using the 10 components of the Recovery Model. The 10 components of the Recovery Model were experienced by or had an impact on the occupational therapy students as they coped and recovered in the aftermath of the natural disaster. This study provides insight into the lived experiences and recovery perspectives of occupational therapy students who experienced Hurricane Sandy. Further research is indicated in applying the Recovery Model to people who survive disasters. Copyright © 2015 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

A demand/supply and price outlook for electricity in Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dalton, J.

2004-01-01

This paper presents the demand/supply and price outlook for electricity in Ontario. The paper examines the near term outlook, critical demand and supply issues, the projected Ontario demand/supply balances and finally concludes by looking at the challenges for Ontario's new market structure

Hurricane Katrina Sediment Sampling

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

Hurricane Katrina Water Sampling

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

Hurricane Katrina Soil Sampling

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

On the Impact Angle of Hurricane Sandy's New Jersey Landfall

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Timothy M.; Sobel, Adam H.

2013-01-01

Hurricane Sandy's track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record, one of the factors contributing to recordsetting peak-water levels in parts of New Jersey and New York. To estimate the occurrence rate of Sandy-like tracks, we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricanes. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long-term average climate conditions, a hurricane of Sandy's intensity or greater (category 1+) makes NJ landfall at an angle at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy's at an average annual rate of 0.0014 yr-1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 years (95% confidence range 435 to 1429).

Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach

OpenAIRE

David Kelly; David Letson; Forest Nelson; David S. Nolan; Daniel Solis

2009-01-01

This paper studies how individuals update subjective risk perceptions in response to hurricane track forecast information, using a unique data set from an event market, the Hurricane Futures Market (HFM). We derive a theoretical Bayesian framework which predicts how traders update their perceptions of the probability of a hurricane making landfall in a certain range of coastline. Our results suggest that traders behave in a way consistent with Bayesian updating but this behavior is based on t...

Developing Drought Outlook Forums in Support of a Regional Drought Early Warning Information System

Science.gov (United States)

Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.

2011-12-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process

Deaths associated with Hurricane Sandy - October-November 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-24

On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the northeastern U.S. coastline. Sandy's tropical storm winds stretched over 900 miles (1,440 km), causing storm surges and destruction over a larger area than that affected by hurricanes with more intensity but narrower paths. Based on storm surge predictions, mandatory evacuations were ordered on October 28, including for New York City's Evacuation Zone A, the coastal zone at risk for flooding from any hurricane. By October 31, the region had 6-12 inches (15-30 cm) of precipitation, 7-8 million customers without power, approximately 20,000 persons in shelters, and news reports of numerous fatalities (Robert Neurath, CDC, personal communication, 2013). To characterize deaths related to Sandy, CDC analyzed data on 117 hurricane-related deaths captured by American Red Cross (Red Cross) mortality tracking during October 28-November 30, 2012. This report describes the results of that analysis, which found drowning was the most common cause of death related to Sandy, and 45% of drowning deaths occurred in flooded homes in Evacuation Zone A. Drowning is a leading cause of hurricane death but is preventable with advance warning systems and evacuation plans. Emergency plans should ensure that persons receive and comprehend evacuation messages and have the necessary resources to comply with them.

Cooperative Hurricane Network Obs

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observations from the Cooperative Hurricane Reporting Network (CHURN), a special network of stations that provided observations when tropical cyclones approached the...

Not so close but still extremely loud: recollection of the World Trade Center terror attack and previous hurricanes moderates the association between exposure to hurricane Sandy and posttraumatic stress symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Palgi, Yuval; Shrira, Amit; Hamama-Raz, Yaira; Palgi, Sharon; Goodwin, Robin; Ben-Ezra, Menachem

2014-05-01

The present study examined whether recollections of the World Trade Center (WTC) terror attack and previous hurricanes moderated the relationship between exposure to Hurricane Sandy and related posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. An online sample of 1000 participants from affected areas completed self-report questionnaires a month after Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States. Participants reported their exposure to Hurricane Sandy, their PTSD symptoms, and recollections of the WTC terror attack and previous hurricanes elicited due to Hurricane Sandy. Exposure to Hurricane Sandy was related to PTSD symptoms among those with high level of recollections of the WTC terror attack and past hurricanes, but not among those with low level of recollections. The aftermath of exposure to Hurricane Sandy is related not only to exposure, but also to its interaction with recollections of past traumas. These findings have theoretical and practical implications for practitioners and health policy makers in evaluating and interpreting the impact of past memories on future natural disasters. This may help in intervention plans of social and psychological services. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hurricane-related emergency department visits in an inland area: an analysis of the public health impact of Hurricane Hugo in North Carolina.

Science.gov (United States)

Brewer, R D; Morris, P D; Cole, T B

1994-04-01

To evaluate the public health impact of a hurricane on an inland area. Descriptive study. Seven hospital emergency departments. Patients who were treated from September 22 to October 6, 1989, for an injury or illness related to Hurricane Hugo. None. Over the two-week study period, 2,090 patients were treated for injuries or illnesses related to the hurricane. Of these, 1,833 (88%) were treated for injuries. Insect stings and wounds accounted for almost half of the total cases. A substantial proportion (26%) of the patients suffering from stings had a generalized reaction (eg, hives, wheezing, or both). Nearly one-third of the wounds were caused by chain saws. Hurricanes can lead to substantial morbidity in an inland area. Disaster plans should address risks associated with stinging insects and hazardous equipment and should address ways to improve case reporting.

International energy outlook 1999

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-03-01

This report presents international energy projections through 2020, prepared by the Energy Information Administration. The outlooks for major energy fuels are discussed, along with electricity, transportation, and environmental issues. The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand. The historical time frame begins with data from 1970 and extends to 1996, providing readers with a 26-year historical view of energy demand. The IEO99 projections covers a 24-year period. The next part of the report is organized by energy source. Regional consumption projections for oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and renewable energy (hydroelectricity, geothermal, wind, solar, and other renewables) are presented in the five fuel chapters, along with a review of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. The third part of the report looks at energy consumption in the end-use sectors, beginning with a chapter on energy use for electricity generation. New to this year`s outlook are chapters on energy use in the transportation sector and on environmental issues related to energy consumption. 104 figs., 87 tabs.

Observations and operational model simulations reveal the impact of Hurricane Matthew (2016) on the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level

Science.gov (United States)

Ezer, Tal; Atkinson, Larry P.; Tuleya, Robert

2017-12-01

In October 7-9, 2016, Hurricane Matthew moved along the southeastern coast of the U.S., causing major flooding and significant damage, even to locations farther north well away from the storm's winds. Various observations, such as tide gauge data, cable measurements of the Florida Current (FC) transport, satellite altimeter data and high-frequency radar data, were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the storm. The data show a dramatic decline in the FC flow and increased coastal sea level along the U.S. coast. Weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) downstream from the storm's area contributed to high coastal sea levels farther north. Analyses of simulations of an operational hurricane-ocean coupled model reveal the disruption that the hurricane caused to the GS flow, including a decline in transport of ∼20 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1). In comparison, the observed FC reached a maximum transport of ∼40 Sv before the storm on September 10 and a minimum of ∼20 Sv after the storm on October 12. The hurricane impacts both the geostrophic part of the GS and the wind-driven currents, generating inertial oscillations with velocities of up to ±1 m s-1. Analysis of the observed FC transport since 1982 indicated that the magnitude of the current weakening in October 2016 was quite rare (outside 3 standard deviations from the mean). Such a large FC weakening in the past occurred more often in October and November, but is extremely rare in June-August. Similar impacts on the FC from past tropical storms and hurricanes suggest that storms may contribute to seasonal and interannual variations in the FC. The results also demonstrated the extended range of coastal impacts that remote storms can cause through their influence on ocean currents.

Canada's energy outlook : the reference case 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Labib, H.; Casaubon, R.; Peluso, T.

2006-10-01

This long-term projection of energy supply, demand, consumption, production and greenhouse gas emissions from now until 2020 identified pressure points and emerging issues in Canadian energy markets. It contributed to public discussions on energy and related economic and environmental issues in Canada and provided a reference scenario from which new energy and climate change policies can be evaluated. Energy projections were developed based on the relationships between energy production, consumption and prices, as well as economic, technological and policy factors. The report included government implemented initiatives that promote energy efficiency or increase the use of alternative energy. This Outlook to 2020 is sensitive to key assumptions about economic growth, oil sands development and the electricity generation mix. It is based on a specific set of assumptions regarding oil price and economic growth. This outlook assumes crude oil prices to be nearly twice that of the last outlook in 1999 and natural gas prices are assumed to be three times higher. The outlook also assumes that the Mackenzie Delta gas pipeline will be in service by 2011. Other principal assumptions used to develop this outlook were that population will grow by 0.7 percent annually and that all but two of Canada's nuclear power plants will stay in service for at least eight more years. The outlook revealed that total energy demand is projected to grow by 1.3 percent per year. The fuel mix will not change much over this period because the prices of different energy sources will remain the same. Energy intensity is expected to improve by about 0.25 per cent annually in the residential and commercial sectors due to stock turn over and appliance regulations. Total energy demand will increase by 1 per cent per year for the residential sector, and at 2.4 percent per year for the commercial sector. Transportation demand is expected to grow by 1.6 per cent per year, while industrial energy intensity

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, first quarter 1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-02-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the fourth quarter of 1994, however, are preliminary EIA estimates or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the first quarter 1995 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. The EIA model is available on computer tape from the National Technical Information Service

Hurricane impacts on a pair of coastal forested watersheds: implications of selective hurricane damage to forest structure and streamflow dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

A.D. Jayakaran; T.M. Williams; H. Ssegane; D.M. Amatya; B. Song; C.C. Trettin

2014-01-01

Hurricanes are infrequent but influential disruptors of ecosystem processes in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Every southeastern forested wetland has the potential to be struck by a tropical cyclone. We examined the impact of Hurricane Hugo on two paired coastal South Carolina watersheds in terms of streamflow and vegetation dynamics, both before and after...

EarthLabs - Investigating Hurricanes: Earth's Meteorological Monsters

Science.gov (United States)

McDaris, J. R.; Dahlman, L.; Barstow, D.

2007-12-01

Earth science is one of the most important tools that the global community needs to address the pressing environmental, social, and economic issues of our time. While, at times considered a second-rate science at the high school level, it is currently undergoing a major revolution in the depth of content and pedagogical vitality. As part of this revolution, labs in Earth science courses need to shift their focus from cookbook-like activities with known outcomes to open-ended investigations that challenge students to think, explore and apply their learning. We need to establish a new model for Earth science as a rigorous lab science in policy, perception, and reality. As a concerted response to this need, five states, a coalition of scientists and educators, and an experienced curriculum team are creating a national model for a lab-based high school Earth science course named EarthLabs. This lab course will comply with the National Science Education Standards as well as the states' curriculum frameworks. The content will focus on Earth system science and environmental literacy. The lab experiences will feature a combination of field work, classroom experiments, and computer access to data and visualizations, and demonstrate the rigor and depth of a true lab course. The effort is being funded by NOAA's Environmental Literacy program. One of the prototype units of the course is Investigating Hurricanes. Hurricanes are phenomena which have tremendous impact on humanity and the resources we use. They are also the result of complex interacting Earth systems, making them perfect objects for rigorous investigation of many concepts commonly covered in Earth science courses, such as meteorology, climate, and global wind circulation. Students are able to use the same data sets, analysis tools, and research techniques that scientists employ in their research, yielding truly authentic learning opportunities. This month-long integrated unit uses hurricanes as the story line by

Numerical study of sediment dynamics during hurricane Gustav

Science.gov (United States)

Zang, Zhengchen; Xue, Z. George; Bao, Shaowu; Chen, Qin; Walker, Nan D.; Haag, Alaric S.; Ge, Qian; Yao, Zhigang

2018-06-01

In this study, the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-and-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was employed to explore sediment dynamics in the northern Gulf of Mexico during hurricane Gustav in 2008. The performance of the model was evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively against in-situ and remote sensing measurements, respectively. After Gustav's landfall in coastal Louisiana, the maximum significant wave heights reached more than 8 m offshore and they decreased quickly as it moved toward the inner shelf, where the vertical stratification was largely destroyed. Alongshore currents were dominant westward on the eastern sector of the hurricane track, and offshoreward currents prevailed on the western sector. High suspended sediment concentrations (>1000 mg/l) were confined to the inner shelf at surface layers and the simulated high concentrations at the bottom layer extended to the 200 m isobaths. The stratification was restored one week after landfall, although not fully. The asymmetric hurricane winds induced stronger hydrodynamics in the eastern sector, which led to severe erosion. The calculated suspended sediment flux (SSF) was convergent to the hurricane center and the maximum SSF was simulated near the south and southeast of the Mississippi river delta. The averaged post-hurricane deposition over the Louisiana shelf was 4.0 cm, which was 3.2-26 times higher than the annual accumulation rate under normal weather conditions.

Land area change analysis following hurricane impacts in Delacroix, Louisiana, 2004--2009

Science.gov (United States)

Palaseanu-Lovejoy, Monica; Kranenburg, Christine J.; Brock, John C.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this project is to provide improved estimates of Louisiana wetland land loss due to hurricane impacts between 2004 and 2009 based upon a change detection mapping analysis that incorporates pre- and post-landfall (Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and Ike) fractional water classification of a combination of high resolution (QuickBird, IKONOS and Geoeye-1) and medium resolution (Landsat) satellite imagery. This second dataset focuses on Hurricanes Katrina and Gustav, which made landfall on August 29, 2005, and September 1, 2008, respectively. The study area is an approximately 1208-square-kilometer region surrounding Delacroix, Louisiana, in the eastern Delta Plain. Overall, 77 percent of the area remained unchanged between 2004 and 2009, and over 11 percent of the area was changed permanently by Hurricane Katrina (including both land gain and loss). Less than 3 percent was affected, either temporarily or permanently, by Hurricane Gustav. A related dataset (SIM 3141) focused on Hurricane Rita, which made landfall on the Louisiana/Texas border on September 24, 2005, as a Category 3 hurricane.

National Energy Outlook Modelling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Volkers, C.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

2013-12-15

For over 20 years, the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) has been developing the National Energy Outlook Modelling System (NEOMS) for Energy projections and policy evaluations. NEOMS enables 12 energy models of ECN to exchange data and produce consistent and detailed results.

Oceanic control of Northeast Pacific hurricane activity at interannual timescales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balaguru, Karthik; Ruby Leung, L; Yoon, Jin-ho

2013-01-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) is not the only oceanic parameter that can play a key role in the interannual variability of Northeast Pacific hurricane activity. Using several observational data sets and the statistical technique of multiple linear regression analysis, we show that, along with SST, the thermocline depth (TD) plays an important role in hurricane activity at interannual timescales in this basin. Based on the parameter that dominates, the ocean basin can be divided into two sub-regions. In the Southern sub-region, which includes the hurricane main development area, interannual variability of the upper-ocean heat content (OHC) is primarily controlled by TD variations. Consequently, the interannual variability in the hurricane power dissipation index (PDI), which is a measure of the intensity of hurricane activity, is driven by that of the TD. On the other hand, in the Northern sub-region, SST exerts the major control over the OHC variability and, in turn, the PDI. Our study suggests that both SST and TD have a significant influence on the Northeast Pacific hurricane activity at interannual timescales and that their respective roles are more clearly delineated when sub-regions along an approximate north–south demarcation are considered rather than the basin as a whole. (letter)

It Takes Two: NASA and NOAA's Shared Path of Hurricane Science Flights with the Global Hawk. Time for the Research To Operations (R2O) Transition?

Science.gov (United States)

Emory, A. E.; Wick, G. A.; Dunion, J. P.; McLinden, M.; Schreier, M. M.; Black, P.; Hood, R. E.; Sippel, J.; Tallapragada, V.

2017-12-01

The impacts of Harvey, Irma, and Maria during the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season re-emphasized the critical need for accurate operational forecasts. The combined NASA East Pacific Origins and Characteristics of Hurricanes (EPOCH) and NOAA UAS field campaign during August 2017 was the fourth campaign in a series of dual agency partnerships between NASA and NOAA to improve forecasting accuracy in tropical cyclogenesis and rapid intensification. A brief history of Global Hawk (GH) hurricane field campaigns, including GRIP (2010), HS3 (2012-2014), NOAA-SHOUT (2015-2016) and EPOCH (2017), will show the incremental steps taken over the last eight years to bring the GH from a research platform to a candidate for operational hurricane reconnaissance. GH dropsondes were assimilated into the ECMWF and HWRF forecast models during the 2015-2016 NOAA SHOUT campaigns. EPOCH marked the first time that GH dropsondes were assimilated in real-time into NOAA's GFS forecast model. Early results show that assimilating dropsonde data significantly increases skill in predicting intensity change, which is game changing since the National Hurricane Center intensity error trend has remained virtually unchanged, particularly at 24 hours, over the last 25 years. The results from the past few years suggest that a paradigm shift of sampling the environment with a high-altitude, long-duration UAS like the GH that is capable of deploying up to 90 dropsondes ahead of and over the top of a developing or strengthening tropical cyclone could produce the best return on hurricane forecast predictions in subsequent years. Recommendations for the future, including lessons learned and the potential for R2O transition will be discussed.

IEA World Energy Outlook 2010-A comment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khatib, Hisham

2011-01-01

The World Energy Outlook 2010 is a comprehensive energy report issued by the IEA. It is rewritten annually to reflect the world's changing energy and economy realities; it also introduces new issues relevant to the energy sector. This year it dealt with Caspian Energy, Energy Poverty and Energy Subsidies. WEO is controversial in few aspects; it still promotes a 450 Scenario which has become out of reach. This year however it introduced a more realistic New Policies Scenario which will need a lot of good will and investments to accomplish. Governmental policies are going to chart future energy sector performance; increasingly this is becoming decided by non-OECD countries. A more pragmatic future energy outlook is needed to reflect developing countries priorities for growth and utilization of local resources and how to accommodate this with abatement priorities through energy efficiency measures and technologies. - Research highlights: → We critically review the findings of the IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010. → The main '450 Scenario' is no longer realistic. → Some of the other indicators like the Energy Development Index are also critically reviewed and improvements proposed.

Short-term energy outlook, April 1999

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-04-01

The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from April 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the first quarter 1999, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the April 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 25 figs., 19 tabs.

International energy outlook 1995, May 1995

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-06-01

The International Energy Outlook 1995 (IEO95) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the international energy market outlook through 2010. The report is an extension of the EIA`s Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (AEO95), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). US projections appearing in the IEO95 are consistent with those published in the AEO95. IEO95 is provided as a statistical service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projects are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 295(c). The IEO95 projections are based on US and foreign government policies in effect on October 1, 1994. IEO95 displays projections according to six basic country groupings. The regionalization has changed since last year`s report. Mexico has been added to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and a more detailed regionalization has been incorporated for the remainder of the world, including the following subgroups: non-OECD Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Central and South America. China is included in non-OECD Asia. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are combined in the EE/FSU subgroup.

Maternal exposure to hurricane destruction and fetal mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Zahran, Sammy; Breunig, Ian M; Link, Bruce G; Snodgrass, Jeffrey G; Weiler, Stephan; Mielke, Howard W

2014-08-01

The majority of research documenting the public health impacts of natural disasters focuses on the well-being of adults and their living children. Negative effects may also occur in the unborn, exposed to disaster stressors when critical organ systems are developing and when the consequences of exposure are large. We exploit spatial and temporal variation in hurricane behaviour as a quasi-experimental design to assess whether fetal death is dose-responsive in the extent of hurricane damage. Data on births and fetal deaths are merged with Parish-level housing wreckage data. Fetal outcomes are regressed on housing wreckage adjusting for the maternal, fetal, placental and other risk factors. The average causal effect of maternal exposure to hurricane destruction is captured by difference-in-differences analyses. The adjusted odds of fetal death are 1.40 (1.07-1.83) and 2.37 (1.684-3.327) times higher in parishes suffering 10-50% and >50% wreckage to housing stock, respectively. For every 1% increase in the destruction of housing stock, we observe a 1.7% (1.1-2.4%) increase in fetal death. Of the 410 officially recorded fetal deaths in these parishes, between 117 and 205 may be attributable to hurricane destruction and postdisaster disorder. The estimated fetal death toll is 17.4-30.6% of the human death toll. The destruction caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita imposed significant measurable losses in terms of fetal death. Postdisaster migratory dynamics suggest that the reported effects of maternal exposure to hurricane destruction on fetal death may be conservative. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Sleep disturbance and its relationship to psychiatric morbidity after Hurricane Andrew.

Science.gov (United States)

Mellman, T A; David, D; Kulick-Bell, R; Hebding, J; Nolan, B

1995-11-01

Sleep disturbance is an important dimension of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), but most of the limited available data were obtained years after the original traumatic event. This study provides information on sleep disturbance and its relationship to posttraumatic morbidity from evaluations done within a year after the trauma. Sleep and psychiatric symptoms of 54 victims (12 men and 42 women) of Hurricane Andrew who had no psychiatric illness in the 6 months before the hurricane were evaluated. A subset of hurricane victims with active psychiatric morbidity (N = 10) and nine comparison subjects who were unaffected by the hurricane were examined in a sleep laboratory. A broad range of sleep-related complaints were rated as being greater after the hurricane, and psychiatric morbidity (which was most commonly PTSD, followed by depression) had a significant effect on most of the subjective sleep measures. In addition, subjects with active morbidity endorsed greater frequencies of "bad dreams" and general sleep disturbances before the hurricane. Polysomnographic results for the hurricane victims revealed a greater number of arousals and entries into stage 1 sleep. REM density correlated positively with both the PTSD symptom of reexperiencing trauma and global distress. Subjects affected by Hurricane Andrew reported sleep disturbances, particularly those subjects with psychiatric morbidity. Tendencies to experience bad dreams and interrupted sleep before a trauma appear to mark vulnerability to posttraumatic morbidity. Results of sleep laboratory evaluations suggested brief shifts toward higher arousal levels during sleep for PTSD subjects and a relationship of REM phasic activity and symptom severity.

Remarks - Global energy outlook and externalities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gray, J.E.

1994-01-01

The author presents a global energy outlook, for the period 1990-2010. Then, he presents some views on the subject of externalities, some regulations and proscriptions about internalization of costs are detailed. (TEC)

Longwave emission trends over Africa and implications for Atlantic hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Lei; Rechtman, Thomas; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Li, Laifang; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Kossin, James P.

2017-09-01

The latitudinal gradient of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Africa is a skillful and physically based predictor of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. The African OLR gradient is observed to have strengthened during the satellite era, as predicted by state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Prior to the satellite era and the U.S. and European clean air acts, the African OLR gradient weakened due to aerosol forcing of the opposite sign. GCMs predict a continuation of the increasing OLR gradient in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Assuming a steady linear relationship between African easterly waves and tropical cyclogenesis, this result suggests a future increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency by 10% (20%) at the end of the 21st century under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) forcing scenario.

Low ionospheric reactions on tropical depressions prior hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Nina, Aleksandra; Radovanović, Milan; Milovanović, Boško; Kovačević, Andjelka; Bajčetić, Jovan; Popović, Luka Č.

2017-10-01

We study the reactions of the low ionosphere during tropical depressions (TDs) which have been detected before the hurricane appearances in the Atlantic Ocean. We explore 41 TD events using very low frequency (VLF) radio signals emitted by NAA transmitter located in the USA and recorded by VLF receiver located in Belgrade (Serbia). We found VLF signal deviations (caused ionospheric turbulence) in the case of 36 out of 41 TD events (88%). Additionally, we explore 27 TDs which have not been developed in hurricanes and found similar low ionospheric reactions. However, in the sample of 41 TDs which are followed by hurricanes the typical low ionosphere perturbations seem to be more frequent than other TDs.

Effects of track and threat information on judgments of hurricane strike probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Hao-Che; Lindell, Michael K; Prater, Carla S; Samuelson, Charles D

2014-06-01

Although evacuation is one of the best strategies for protecting citizens from hurricane threat, the ways that local elected officials use hurricane data in deciding whether to issue hurricane evacuation orders is not well understood. To begin to address this problem, we examined the effects of hurricane track and intensity information in a laboratory setting where participants judged the probability that hypothetical hurricanes with a constant bearing (i.e., straight line forecast track) would make landfall in each of eight 45 degree sectors around the Gulf of Mexico. The results from 162 participants in a student sample showed that the judged strike probability distributions over the eight sectors within each scenario were, unsurprisingly, unimodal and centered on the sector toward which the forecast track pointed. More significantly, although strike probability judgments for the sector in the direction of the forecast track were generally higher than the corresponding judgments for the other sectors, the latter were not zero. Most significantly, there were no appreciable differences in the patterns of strike probability judgments for hurricane tracks represented by a forecast track only, an uncertainty cone only, or forecast track with an uncertainty cone-a result consistent with a recent survey of coastal residents threatened by Hurricane Charley. The study results suggest that people are able to correctly process basic information about hurricane tracks but they do make some errors. More research is needed to understand the sources of these errors and to identify better methods of displaying uncertainty about hurricane parameters. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Teacher Guidelines for Helping Students after a Hurricane

Science.gov (United States)

National Child Traumatic Stress Network, 2013

2013-01-01

Being in a hurricane can be very frightening, and the days, weeks, and months following the storm can be very stressful. Most families recover over time, especially with the support of relatives, friends, and their community. But different families may have different experiences during and after a hurricane, and how long it takes them to recover…

Morphological responses of the Wax Lake Delta, Louisiana, to Hurricanes Rita

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Xing

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study examines the morphodynamic response of a deltaic system to extreme weather events. The Wax Lake Delta (WLD in Louisiana, USA, is used to illustrate the impact of extreme events (hurricanes on a river-dominated deltaic system. Simulations using the open source Delft3D model reveal that Hurricane Rita, which made landfall 120 km to the west of WLD as a Category 3 storm in 2005, caused erosion on the right side and deposition on the left side of the hurricane eye track on the continental shelf line (water depth 10 m to 50 m. Erosion over a wide area occurred both on the continental shelf line and in coastal areas when the hurricane moved onshore, while deposition occurred along the Gulf coastline (water depth < 5 m when storm surge water moved back offshore. The numerical model estimated that Hurricane Rita’s storm surge reached 2.5 m, with maximum currents of 2.0 m s–1, and wave heights of 1.4 m on the WLD. The northwestern-directed flow and waves induced shear stresses, caused erosion on the eastern banks of the deltaic islands and deposition in channels located west of these islands. In total, Hurricane Rita eroded more than 500,000 m3 of sediments on the WLD area. Including waves in the analysis resulted in doubling the amount of erosion in the study area, comparing to the wave-excluding scenario. The exclusion of fluvial input caused minor changes in deltaic morphology during the event. Vegetation cover was represented as rigid rods in the model which add extra source terms for drag and turbulence to influence the momentum and turbulence equations. Vegetation slowed down the floodwater propagation and decreased flow velocity on the islands, leading to a 47% reduction in the total amount of erosion. Morphodynamic impact of the hurricane track relative to the delta was explored. Simulations indicate that the original track of Hurricane Rita (landfall 120 km west of the WLD produced twice as much erosion and deposition at the delta

Radial profiles of velocity and pressure for condensation-induced hurricanes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makarieva, A.M.; Gorshkov, V.G.

2011-01-01

The Bernoulli integral in the form of an algebraic equation is obtained for the hurricane air flow as the sum of the kinetic energy of wind and the condensational potential energy. With an account for the eye rotation energy and the decrease of angular momentum towards the hurricane center it is shown that the theoretical profiles of pressure and velocity agree well with observations for intense hurricanes. The previous order of magnitude estimates obtained in pole approximation are confirmed.

Radial profiles of velocity and pressure for condensation-induced hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Makarieva, A. M.; Gorshkov, V. G.

2011-02-01

The Bernoulli integral in the form of an algebraic equation is obtained for the hurricane air flow as the sum of the kinetic energy of wind and the condensational potential energy. With an account for the eye rotation energy and the decrease of angular momentum towards the hurricane center it is shown that the theoretical profiles of pressure and velocity agree well with observations for intense hurricanes. The previous order of magnitude estimates obtained in pole approximation are confirmed.

Radial profiles of velocity and pressure for condensation-induced hurricanes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makarieva, A.M., E-mail: ammakarieva@gmail.co [Theoretical Physics Division, Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, Gatchina, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Gorshkov, V.G. [Theoretical Physics Division, Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, Gatchina, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

2011-02-14

The Bernoulli integral in the form of an algebraic equation is obtained for the hurricane air flow as the sum of the kinetic energy of wind and the condensational potential energy. With an account for the eye rotation energy and the decrease of angular momentum towards the hurricane center it is shown that the theoretical profiles of pressure and velocity agree well with observations for intense hurricanes. The previous order of magnitude estimates obtained in pole approximation are confirmed.

Changes in trace metals in Thalassia testudinum after hurricane impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Whelan, T; Van Tussenbroek, B I; Santos, M G Barba

2011-12-01

Major hurricanes Emily and Wilma hit the Mexican Caribbean in 2005. Changes in trace metals in the seagrass Thalassia testudinum prior to (May 2004, 2005) and following passage of these hurricanes (May, June 2006) were determined at four locations along a ≈ 130 km long stretch of coast. Before the hurricanes, essential metals were likely limiting and concentrations of potentially toxic Pb were high in a contaminated lagoon (27.5 μg g(-1)) and near submarine springs (6.10 μg g(-1)); the likely sources were inland sewage disposal or excessive boat traffic. After the hurricanes, Pb decreased to 2.0 μg g(-1) in the contaminated lagoon probably through flushing. At the northern sites, essential Fe increased >2-fold (from 26.8 to 68.3 μg g(-1) on average), possibly from remobilization of anoxic sediments or upwelling of deep seawater during Wilma. Thus, hurricanes can be beneficial to seagrass beds in flushing toxic metals and replenishing essential elements. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dependence of US hurricane economic loss on maximum wind speed and storm size

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhai, Alice R; Jiang, Jonathan H

2014-01-01

Many empirical hurricane economic loss models consider only wind speed and neglect storm size. These models may be inadequate in accurately predicting the losses of super-sized storms, such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012. In this study, we examined the dependences of normalized US hurricane loss on both wind speed and storm size for 73 tropical cyclones that made landfall in the US from 1988 through 2012. A multi-variate least squares regression is used to construct a hurricane loss model using both wind speed and size as predictors. Using maximum wind speed and size together captures more variance of losses than using wind speed or size alone. It is found that normalized hurricane loss (L) approximately follows a power law relation with maximum wind speed (V max ) and size (R), L = 10 c V max a R b , with c determining an overall scaling factor and the exponents a and b generally ranging between 4–12 and 2–4 respectively. Both a and b tend to increase with stronger wind speed. Hurricane Sandy’s size was about three times of the average size of all hurricanes analyzed. Based on the bi-variate regression model that explains the most variance for hurricanes, Hurricane Sandy’s loss would be approximately 20 times smaller if its size were of the average size with maximum wind speed unchanged. It is important to revise conventional empirical hurricane loss models that are only dependent on maximum wind speed to include both maximum wind speed and size as predictors. (letters)

RSM Outlook Autumn 2005 : Branding

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G. Kemp (Gail); R. Morris (Rebecca)

2005-01-01

markdownabstract#### Contents The inaugural issue of RSM Outlook from autumn 2005 includes the opening of the new T-building, and how RSM celebrated its 35th birthday with a wine-tasting session. There are also articles on Professor Cees van Riel and reputation management, the re-branding of the

Developing Local Scale, High Resolution, Data to Interface with Numerical Hurricane Models

Science.gov (United States)

Witkop, R.; Becker, A.

2017-12-01

In 2017, the University of Rhode Island's (URI's) Graduate School of Oceanography (GSO) developed hurricane models that specify wind speed, inundation, and erosion around Rhode Island with enough precision to incorporate impacts on individual facilities. At the same time, URI's Marine Affairs Visualization Lab (MAVL) developed a way to realistically visualize these impacts in 3-D. Since climate change visualizations and water resource simulations have been shown to promote resiliency action (Sheppard, 2015) and increase credibility (White et al., 2010) when local knowledge is incorporated, URI's hurricane models and visualizations may also more effectively enable hurricane resilience actions if they include Facility Manager (FM) and Emergency Manager (EM) perceived hurricane impacts. This study determines how FM's and EM's perceive their assets as being vulnerable to quantifiable hurricane-related forces at the individual facility scale while exploring methods to elicit this information from FMs and EMs in a format usable for incorporation into URI GSO's hurricane models.

Estimating the spatial distribution of power outages during hurricanes in the Gulf coast region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, S.-R.; Guikema, Seth D.; Quiring, Steven M.; Lee, Kyung-Ho; Rosowsky, David; Davidson, Rachel A.

2009-01-01

Hurricanes have caused severe damage to the electric power system throughout the Gulf coast region of the US, and electric power is critical to post-hurricane disaster response as well as to long-term recovery for impacted areas. Managing power outage risk and preparing for post-storm recovery efforts requires accurate methods for estimating the number and location of power outages. This paper builds on past work on statistical power outage estimation models to develop, test, and demonstrate a statistical power outage risk estimation model for the Gulf Coast region of the US. Previous work used binary hurricane-indicator variables representing particular hurricanes in order to achieve a good fit to the past data. To use these models for predicting power outages during future hurricanes, one must implicitly assume that an approaching hurricane is similar to the average of the past hurricanes. The model developed in this paper replaces these indicator variables with physically measurable variables, enabling future predictions to be based on only well-understood characteristics of hurricanes. The models were developed using data about power outages during nine hurricanes in three states served by a large, investor-owned utility company in the Gulf Coast region

International energy outlook, 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

This report presents the current Energy Information Administration (EIA) assessment of the long-term outlook for international energy markets. This and other EIA reports are provided as a statistical service for use by managers and international energy analysts, not as a Government energy plan. Current US Government policies and foreign government policies are assumed to hold over the projection interval, which extends to the year 2010

Science and the storms: The USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Farris, G. S.; Smith, G.J.; Crane, M.P.; Demas, C.R.; Robbins, L.L.; Lavoie, D.L.

2007-01-01

This report is designed to give a view of the immediate response of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to four major hurricanes of 2005: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Some of this response took place days after the hurricanes; other responses included fieldwork and analysis through the spring. While hurricane science continues within the USGS, this overview of work following these hurricanes reveals how a Department of the Interior bureau quickly brought together a diverse array of its scientists and technologies to assess and analyze many hurricane effects. Topics vary from flooding and water quality to landscape and ecosystem impacts, from geotechnical reconnaissance to analyzing the collapse of bridges and estimating the volume of debris. Thus, the purpose of this report is to inform the American people of the USGS science that is available and ongoing in regard to hurricanes. It is the hope that such science will help inform the decisions of those citizens and officials tasked with coastal restoration and planning for future hurricanes. Chapter 1 is an essay establishing the need for science in building a resilient coast. The second chapter includes some hurricane facts that provide hurricane terminology, history, and maps of the four hurricanes’ paths. Chapters that follow give the scientific response of USGS to the storms. Both English and metric measurements are used in the articles in anticipation of both general and scientific audiences in the United States and elsewhere. Chapter 8 is a compilation of relevant ongoing and future hurricane work. The epilogue marks the 2-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. An index of authors follows the report to aid in finding articles that are cross-referenced within the report. In addition to performing the science needed to understand the effects of hurricanes, USGS employees helped in the rescue of citizens by boat and through technology by “geoaddressing” 911 calls after Katrina and Rita so that other

Post-hurricane forest damage assessment using satellite remote sensing

Science.gov (United States)

W. Wang; J.J. Qu; X. Hao; Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf

2010-01-01

This study developed a rapid assessment algorithm for post-hurricane forest damage estimation using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements. The performance of five commonly used vegetation indices as post-hurricane forest damage indicators was investigated through statistical analysis. The Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII) was...

A Climatological Study of Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-01

extratropical cyclone by months in the Pacific basin. Most of the storms occur from October through March...hurricane force extratropical cyclone. Starting from left to right; the first column is the storm name, second column is the year, month, day, hour (UTC...2000 through 2007 illustrates that the number of hurricane-force extratropical cyclones is quite significant: approximately 500 storms , nearly evenly

Evacuation Shelters - MDC_HurricaneShelter

Data.gov (United States)

NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — A label feature class of Miami-Dade County Hurricane Evacuation Shelters (HEC) including Special Need Evacuation Centers (SNEC) and Medical Management Facilities...

Psychological distress of adolescents exposed to Hurricane Hugo.

Science.gov (United States)

Hardin, S B; Weinrich, M; Weinrich, S; Hardin, T L; Garrison, C

1994-07-01

To ascertain the effects of a natural disaster on adolescents, 1482 South Carolina high school students who were exposed to Hurricane Hugo were surveyed 1 year after the disaster. Subjects completed a self-administered questionnaire measuring Hugo exposure, nonviolent and violent life events, social support, self-efficacy, and psychological distress. Results showed that the students reported minimal exposure to the hurricane and psychological distress variables approximated national norms. As exposure increased, adolescents reported increased symptoms of psychological distress; i.e., anger, depression, anxiety, and global mental distress. Females and white students experienced higher levels of distress. In most cases, other stressful life events were at least as strong a predictor of psychological distress as was exposure to the hurricane. Self-efficacy and social support were protective.

An Observational Study of Tropical Cyclone Spin-Up in Supertyphoon Jangmi and Hurricane Georges

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-01

Marks et al. (2008) flight level and radar observations from Hurricane Hugo shown in Figure 9 (their Figure 3) and Hurricane Isabel (Montgomery et al...Figure 3c and Figure 6c) and Persing and Montgomery (2003, their Figures 8, 9, and 12). For the case of Hurricane Hugo , a cross-section of the... Hurricane Hugo (1989). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1237–1259. McTaggart-Cowan, R., L. F. Bosart, J. R. Gyakum, and E. H. Atallah, 2007: Hurricane Katrina

Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurricane events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, James; Duenas-Osorio, Leonardo; Stein, Robert; Subramanian, Devika

2010-01-01

Large tropical cyclones cause severe damage to major cities along the United States Gulf Coast annually. A diverse collection of engineering and statistical models are currently used to estimate the geographical distribution of power outage probabilities stemming from these hurricanes to aid in storm preparedness and recovery efforts. Graph theoretic studies of power networks have separately attempted to link abstract network topology to transmission and distribution system reliability. However, few works have employed both techniques to unravel the intimate connection between network damage arising from storms, topology, and system reliability. This investigation presents a new methodology combining hurricane damage predictions and topological assessment to characterize the impact of hurricanes upon power system reliability. Component fragility models are applied to predict failure probability for individual transmission and distribution power network elements simultaneously. The damage model is calibrated using power network component failure data for Harris County, TX, USA caused by Hurricane Ike in September of 2008, resulting in a mean outage prediction error of 15.59% and low standard deviation. Simulated hurricane events are then applied to measure the hurricane reliability of three topologically distinct transmission networks. The rate of system performance decline is shown to depend on their topological structure. Reliability is found to correlate directly with topological features, such as network meshedness, centrality, and clustering, and the compact irregular ring mesh topology is identified as particularly favorable, which can influence regional lifeline policy for retrofit and hardening activities to withstand hurricane events.

Retention of Displaced Students after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Coco, Joshua Christian

2017-01-01

The purpose of the study was to investigate the strategies that university leaders implemented to improve retention of displaced students in the aftermaths of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The universities that participated in this study admitted displaced students after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. This study utilized a qualitative…

Resilience of Professional Counselors Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, Simone F.; Lawson, Gerard

2013-01-01

Professional counselors who provided services to those affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita completed the K6+ (screen for severe mental illness), the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory, and the Professional Quality of Life Scale. Results indicated that participants who survived the hurricanes had higher levels of posttraumatic growth than…

Litterfall Production Prior to and during Hurricanes Irma and Maria in Four Puerto Rican Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xianbin Liu

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Hurricanes Irma and Maria struck Puerto Rico on the 6th and 20th of September 2017, respectively. These two powerful Cat 5 hurricanes severely defoliated forest canopy and deposited massive amounts of litterfall in the forests across the island. We established a 1-ha research plot in each of four forests (Guánica State Forest, Río Abajo State Forest, Guayama Research Area and Luquillo Experiment Forest before September 2016, and had collected one full year data of litterfall production prior to the arrival of Hurricanes Irma and Maria. Hurricane-induced litterfall was collected within one week after Hurricane Irma, and within two weeks after Hurricane Maria. Each litterfall sample was sorted into leaves, wood (branches and barks, reproductive organs (flowers, fruits and seeds and miscellaneous materials (mostly dead animal bodies or feces after oven-drying to constant weight. Annual litterfall production prior to the arrival of Hurricanes Irma and Maria varied from 4.68 to 25.41 Mg/ha/year among the four forests, and annual litterfall consisted of 50–81% leaffall, 16–44% woodfall and 3–6% fallen reproductive organs. Hurricane Irma severely defoliated the Luquillo Experimental Forest, but had little effect on the other three forests, whereas Hurricane Maria defoliated all four forests. Total hurricane-induced litterfall from Hurricanes Irma and Maria amounted to 95–171% of the annual litterfall production, with leaffall and woodfall from hurricanes amounting to 63–88% and 122–763% of their corresponding annual leaffall and woodfall, respectively. Hurricane-induced litterfall consisted of 30–45% leaves and 55–70% wood. Our data showed that Hurricanes Irma and Maria deposited a pulse of litter deposition equivalent to or more than the total annual litterfall input with at least a doubled fraction of woody materials. This pulse of hurricane-induced debris and elevated proportion of woody component may trigger changes in

Calculations of the hurricane eye motion based on singularity propagation theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir Danilov

2002-02-01

Full Text Available We discuss the possibility of using calculating singularities to forecast the dynamics of hurricanes. Our basic model is the shallow-water system. By treating the hurricane eye as a vortex type singularity and truncating the corresponding sequence of Hugoniot type conditions, we carry out many numerical experiments. The comparison of our results with the tracks of three actual hurricanes shows that our approach is rather fruitful.

Frozen heat: Global outlook on methane gas hydrates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beaudoin, Yannick; Solgaard, Anne

2010-09-15

The United Nations Environment Programme via its collaborating center in Norway, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, is undertaking an assessment of the state of the knowledge of methane gas hydrates. The Global Outlook on Methane Gas Hydrates seeks to bridge the gap between the science, research and development activities related to this potential large scale unconventional source of natural gas and the needs of decision makers and the general public to understand the underlying societal and environmental drivers and impacts. The Outlook aims to provide credible and unbiased information sourced from stakeholders representing the environment, government, industry and society.

Eogenetic karst hydrology: insights from the 2004 hurricanes, peninsular Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Florea, Lee J; Vacher, H L

2007-01-01

Eogenetic karst lies geographically and temporally close to the depositional environment of limestone in warm marine water at low latitude, in areas marked by midafternoon thunderstorms during a summer rainy season. Spring hydrographs from such an environment in north-central Florida are characterized by smooth, months-long, seasonal maxima. The passage of Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in September 2004 over three field locations shows how the eogenetic karst of the Upper Floridan Aquifer responds to unequivocal recharge events. Hydrographs at wells in the High Springs area, Rainbow Springs, and at Morris, Briar, and Bat Caves all responded promptly with a similar drawn-out rise to a maximum that extended long into the winter dry season. The timing indicates that the typical hydrograph of eogenetic karst is not the short-term fluctuations of springs in epigenic, telogenetic karst, or the smoothed response to all the summer thunderstorms, but rather the protracted response of the system to rainfall that exceeds a threshold. The similarity of cave and noncave hydrographs indicates distributed autogenic recharge and a free communication between secondary porosity and permeable matrix-both of which differ from the hydrology of epigenic, telogenetic karst. At Briar Cave, drip rates lagged behind the water table rise, suggesting that recharge was delivered by fractures, which control the cave's morphology. At High Springs, hydrographs at the Santa Fe River and a submerged conduit apparently connected to it show sharp maxima after the storms, unlike the other cave hydrographs. Our interpretation is that the caves, in general, are discontinuous.

New mine projects, positive outlook

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

M. Cremer

2006-12-15

Speaking on the first day at the Mining 2006 Resources Convention the Deputy Director General, Mining and Petroleum gave an optimistic outlook for mining in 2007 based on the number of new projects under consideration or construction. The convention was held in early November in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. 3 figs., 1 photo.

Race differences in depression vulnerability following Hurricane Katrina.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, Jeanelle S; Farrell, Amy S; Alexander, Adam C; Forde, David R; Stockton, Michelle; Ward, Kenneth D

2017-05-01

This study investigated whether racial disparities in depression were present after Hurricane Katrina. Data were gathered from 932 New Orleans residents who were present when Hurricane Katrina struck, and who returned to New Orleans the following year. Multiple logistic regression models evaluated racial differences in screening positive for depression (a score ≥16 on the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale), and explored whether differential vulnerability (prehurricane physical and mental health functioning and education level), differential exposure to hurricane-related stressors, and loss of social support moderated and/or reduced the association of race with depression. A univariate logistic regression analysis showed the odds for screening positive for depression were 86% higher for African Americans than for Caucasians (odds ratio [OR] = 1.86 [1.28-2.71], p = .0012). However, after controlling simultaneously for sociodemographic characteristics, preexisting vulnerabilities, social support, and trauma-specific factors, race was no longer a significant correlate for screening positive for depression (OR = 1.54 [0.95-2.48], p = .0771). The racial disparity in postdisaster depression seems to be confounded by sociodemographic characteristics, preexisting vulnerabilities, social support, and trauma-specific factors. Nonetheless, even after adjusting for these factors, there was a nonsignificant trend effect for race, which could suggest race played an important role in depression outcomes following Hurricane Katrina. Future studies should examine these associations prospectively, using stronger assessments for depression, and incorporate measures for discrimination and segregation, to further understand possible racial disparities in depression after Hurricane Katrina. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

The effects of hurricanes on birds, with special reference to Caribbean islands

Science.gov (United States)

Wiley, J.W.; Wunderle, J.M.

1993-01-01

Cyclonic storms, variously called typhoons, cyclones, or hurricanes (henceforth, hurricanes), are common in many parts of the world, where their frequent occurrence can have both direct and indirect effects on bird populations. Direct effects of hurricanes include mortality from exposure to hurricane winds, rains, and storm surges, and geographic displacement of individuals by storm winds. Indirect effects become apparent in the storm's aftermath and include loss of food supplies or foraging substrates; loss of nests and nest or roost sites; increased vulnerability to predation; microclimate changes; and increased conflict with humans. The short-term response of bird populations to hurricane damage, before changes in plant succession, includes shifts in diet, foraging sites or habitats, and reproductive changes. Bird populations may show long-term responses to changes in plant succession as second-growth vegetation increases in storm-damaged old-growth forests. The greatest stress of a hurricane to most upland terrestrial bird populations occurs after its passage rather than during its impact. The most important effect of a hurricane is the destruction of vegetation, which secondarily affects wildlife in the storm's aftermath. The most vulnerable terrestrial wildlife populations have a diet of nectar, fruit, or seeds; nest, roost, or forage on large old trees; require a closed forest canopy; have special microclimate requirements and/or live in a habitat in which vegetation has a slow recovery rate. Small populations with these traits are at greatest risk to hurricane-induced extinction, particularly if they exist in small isolated habitat fragments. Recovery of avian populations from hurricane effects is partially dependent on the extent and degree of vegetation damage as well as its rate of recovery. Also, the reproductive rate of the remnant local population and recruitment from undisturbed habitat patches influence the rate at which wildlife populations recover

Avifauna response to hurricanes: regional changes in community similarity

Science.gov (United States)

Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Anna M. Pidgeon; Thomas P. Albright; Patrick D. Culbert; Murray K. Clayton; Curtis H. Flather; Chengquan Huang; Jeffrey G. Masek; Volker C. Radeloff

2010-01-01

Global climate models predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as hurricanes, which may abruptly alter ecological processes in forests and thus affect avian diversity. Developing appropriate conservation measures necessitates identifying patterns of avifauna response to hurricanes. We sought to answer two questions: (1) does...

On the molecular dynamics in the hurricane interactions with its environment

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Gabriel; Vitiello, Giuseppe

2018-06-01

By resorting to the Burgers model for hurricanes, we study the molecular motion involved in the hurricane dynamics. We show that the Lagrangian canonical formalism requires the inclusion of the environment degrees of freedom. This also allows the description of the motion of charged particles. In view of the role played by moist convection, cumulus and cloud water droplets in the hurricane dynamics, we discuss on the basis of symmetry considerations the role played by the molecular electrical dipoles and the formation of topologically non-trivial structures. The mechanism of energy storage and dissipation, the non-stationary time dependent Ginzburg-Landau equation and the vortex equation are studied. Finally, we discuss the fractal self-similarity properties of hurricanes.

Longitudinal Impact of Hurricane Sandy Exposure on Mental Health Symptoms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebecca M. Schwartz

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy hit the eastern coast of the United States in October 2012, causing billions of dollars in damage and acute physical and mental health problems. The long-term mental health consequences of the storm and their predictors have not been studied. New York City and Long Island residents completed questionnaires regarding their initial Hurricane Sandy exposure and mental health symptoms at baseline and 1 year later (N = 130. There were statistically significant decreases in anxiety scores (mean difference = −0.33, p < 0.01 and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD scores (mean difference = −1.98, p = 0.001 between baseline and follow-up. Experiencing a combination of personal and property damage was positively associated with long-term PTSD symptoms (ORadj 1.2, 95% CI [1.1–1.4] but not with anxiety or depression. Having anxiety, depression, or PTSD at baseline was a significant predictor of persistent anxiety (ORadj 2.8 95% CI [1.1–6.8], depression (ORadj 7.4 95% CI [2.3–24.1 and PTSD (ORadj 4.1 95% CI [1.1–14.6] at follow-up. Exposure to Hurricane Sandy has an impact on PTSD symptoms that persists over time. Given the likelihood of more frequent and intense hurricanes due to climate change, future hurricane recovery efforts must consider the long-term effects of hurricane exposure on mental health, especially on PTSD, when providing appropriate assistance and treatment.

Improving Post-Hurricane Katrina Forest Management with MODIS Time Series Products

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Mark David; Spruce, Joseph; Evans, David; Anderson, Daniel

2012-01-01

Hurricane damage to forests can be severe, causing millions of dollars of timber damage and loss. To help mitigate loss, state agencies require information on location, intensity, and extent of damaged forests. NASA's MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series data products offers a potential means for state agencies to monitor hurricane-induced forest damage and recovery across a broad region. In response, a project was conducted to produce and assess 250 meter forest disturbance and recovery maps for areas in southern Mississippi impacted by Hurricane Katrina. The products and capabilities from the project were compiled to aid work of the Mississippi Institute for Forest Inventory (MIFI). A series of NDVI change detection products were computed to assess hurricane induced damage and recovery. Hurricane-induced forest damage maps were derived by computing percent change between MODIS MOD13 16-day composited NDVI pre-hurricane "baseline" products (2003 and 2004) and post-hurricane NDVI products (2005). Recovery products were then computed in which post storm 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 NDVI data was each singularly compared to the historical baseline NDVI. All percent NDVI change considered the 16-day composite period of August 29 to September 13 for each year in the study. This provided percent change in the maximum NDVI for the 2 week period just after the hurricane event and for each subsequent anniversary through 2009, resulting in forest disturbance products for 2005 and recovery products for the following 4 years. These disturbance and recovery products were produced for the Mississippi Institute for Forest Inventory's (MIFI) Southeast Inventory District and also for the entire hurricane impact zone. MIFI forest inventory products were used as ground truth information for the project. Each NDVI percent change product was classified into 6 categories of forest disturbance intensity. Stand age

Hurricane Harvey Report: A fact-finding effort in the direct aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in the Greater Houston Region

OpenAIRE

Sebastian, A.G.; Lendering, K.T.; Kothuis, B.L.M.; Brand, A.D.; Jonkman, S.N.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Kolen, B.; Comes, M.; Lhermitte, S.L.M.; Meesters, K.J.M.G.; van de Walle, B.A.; Ebrahimi Fard, A.; Cunningham, S.; Khakzad Rostami, N.; Nespeca, V.

2017-01-01

On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of approximately 200 km/hour. Harvey caused severe damages in coastal Texas due to extreme winds and storm surge, but will go down in history for record-setting rainfall totals and flood-related damages. Across large portions of southeast Texas, rainfall totals during the six-day period between August 25 and 31, 2017 were amongst the highest ever recorded, causing flo...

Interim report on the long-term outlook of energy demands and supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

The supply/demand committee on Overall Energy Council has long deliberated on the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and finalized its report, assuming a yearly economic growth of about 5% in 1980s and utmost efforts by both the people and the government: the background and basic ideas to decide the outlook, the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and conclusions. The energy demand for fiscal 1990 is put at 590 million kl (crude oil equivalent) and for fiscal 2000 at 770 million kl with energy saving ratios 15.5% and 25%, respectively. The energy supply by nuclear power for fiscal 1990 is then put at 46,000 MW with 11.3% of the total. In the energy supply outlook for fiscal 1990, the aspects of the economy and stability as well as the quantity of respective energy sources are considered, overall to reduce the reliance on petroleum. (Mori, K.)

CERN Technical Training 2004: New Short Courses (SC) on Microsoft Outlook

CERN Multimedia

Monique Duval

2004-01-01

The CERN Technical Training programme is now proposing a new format for courses on Microsoft Outlook. Three two-hours Short Courses (SC) will cover basic and advanced functionalities of the recommended mail client for email at CERN. Each module can be followed independently. The next scheduled sessions will take place as follows: Outlook (SC I): E-mail. Next session: 22.10.2004 (9h00-11h00) Outlook (SC II): Calendar, Tasks and Notes. Next session: 22.10.2004 (14h00-16h00) Outlook (SC III): Meetings and Delegation. Next session: 9.11.2004 (14h00-16h00) In particular, SC I will cover how to open, create and send email, work with attachments, use stationery, organise mail, and work with the address book, SC II will show how to work with the calendar, tasks and notes, and SC III will cover how to organise and manage meetings, work with meeting requests, share tasks, and use email and calendar delegation. The number of participants to each session is limited to 8. The instructor is English-French bilingual, and...

Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) Microwave (MW)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) from Microwave (MW) observations of tropical cyclones worldwide data consist of raw satellite observations. The data derive from the...

Contrasting Hydrodynamic and Environmental Effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Ike in a Highly Industrialized Estuary

Science.gov (United States)

Kiaghadi, A.; Rifai, H. S.

2017-12-01

It is commonly believed that storm surge is the most destructive aspect of hurricanes. However, massive rainfall with a return period of 100 years or more induced by hurricanes can cause more catastrophic damage than losses caused by storm surge as demonstrated recently by hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. In this study the hydrodynamics and environmental effects of hurricanes Ike and Harvey were compared and contrasted by linking hydrodynamic flow models with water quality models to simulate spills from storage tanks located in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC). Hurricane Ike with a maximum surge of 5.3 meters in Galveston Bay and Harvey with a maximum rainfall of 1.25 meters both struck the HSC region in Texas in 2008 and 2017, respectively. Both events resulted in numerous spills from municipal and industrial facilities, hazardous waste sites, superfund sites, and landfills. The Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) was coupled with the SWAN+ADCIRC hurricane simulation model to simulate Hurricane Ike and EFDC was coupled with USGS flow boundary conditions to model Hurricane Harvey. A conservative dye release was used to simulate a chemical release during each event. The results showed Hurricane Harvey caused higher water surface elevations within the HSC accompanied by longer and wider-spread land inundation. In contrast, higher water surface elevations were observed within the shallow side bays during Hurricane Ike that caused sediment resuspension and repartitioning of pollutants. Rapid spill mass transportation was observed for both hurricanes; 50% of total spill mass reached Galveston Bay in 20 and 22 hours after a spill event for Hurricane Harvey and Ike, respectively, and more than 90% of the spill mass reached the bay in 36 and 48 hours, respectively. Unlike Hurricane Harvey, the conservative tracer was spread almost 2.5 km upstream of the releasing point for Hurricane Ike due to surge. However, during Harvey, 35% more land was affected by the spilled

The Device-Independent Outlook On Quantum Physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scarani, V.

2012-01-01

This text is an introduction to an operational outlook on Bell inequalities, which has been very fruitful in the past few years. It has lead to the recognition that Bell tests have their own place in applied quantum technologies, because they quantify non-classicality in a device-independent way, that is, without any need to describe the degrees of freedom under study and the measurements that are performed. At the more fundamental level, the same device-independent outlook has allowed the falsification of several other alternative models that could hope to reproduce the observed statistics while keeping some classical features that quantum theory denies; and it has shed new light on the long-standing quest for deriving quantum theory from physical principles. (author)

Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1993 is a companion document to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (AEO). Supplement tables provide the regional projections underlying the national data and projections in the AEO. The domestic coal, electric power, commercial nuclear power, end-use consumption, and end-use price tables present AEO forecasts at the 10 Federal Region level. World coal tables provide data and projections on international flows of steam coal and metallurgical coal, and the oil and gas tables provide the AEO oil and gas supply forecasts by Oil and Gas Supply Regions and by source of supply. All tables refer to cases presented in the AEO, which provides a range of projections for energy markets through 2010

Predicting the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association claim payout of commercial buildings from Hurricane Ike

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, J. M.; Woods, P. K.; Park, Y. J.; Son, K.

2013-08-01

Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there currently is no comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses associated with individual buildings. To address this lack of research, this study will identify vulnerabilities and hurricane indicators, develop metrics to measure the influence of economic losses from hurricanes, and visualize the spatial distribution of vulnerability to evaluate overall hurricane damage. This paper has utilized the Geographic Information System to facilitate collecting and managing data, and has combined vulnerability factors to assess the financial losses suffered by Texas coastal counties. A multiple linear regression method has been applied to develop hurricane economic damage predicting models. To reflect the pecuniary loss, insured loss payment was used as the dependent variable to predict the actual financial damage. Geographical vulnerability indicators, built environment vulnerability indicators, and hurricane indicators were all used as independent variables. Accordingly, the models and findings may possibly provide vital references for government agencies, emergency planners, and insurance companies hoping to predict hurricane damage.

International energy outlook 1998

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-04-01

The International Energy Outlook 1998 (IEO98) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2020. Projections in IEO98 are displaced according to six basic country groupings. The industrialized region includes projections for four individual countries -- the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Japan -- along with the subgroups Western Europe and Australasia (defined as Australia, New Zealand, and the US Territories). The developing countries are represented by four separate regional subgroups: developing Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Central and South America. China and India are represented in developing Asia. New to this year's report, country-level projections are provided for Brazil -- which is represented in Central and South America. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU) are considered as a separate country grouping. The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand. Regional consumption projections for oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and renewable energy (hydroelectricity, geothermal, wind, solar, and other renewables) are presented in five fuel chapters, with a review of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. Summary tables of the IEO98 projections for world energy consumption, carbon emissions, oil production, and nuclear power generating capacity are provided in Appendix A. 88 figs., 77 tabs

Death Attitudes and Changes in Existential Outlook in Parents of Vulnerable Newborns.

Science.gov (United States)

Barr, Peter

2015-01-01

This study is an Actor-Partner Interdependence Model analysis of the relation of death attitudes with changes in outlook in 59 parent couples of neonatal intensive care newborns. Death attitudes effects with changes in outlook were mostly intrapersonal and they mainly occurred in fathers, though between gender differences were not usually significant. Death avoidance and neutral death acquiescence were positive predictors of positive changes in outlook, and fear of death and neutral death acquiescence were respective positive and inverse predictors of negative changes. Multidimensional measures of death attitudes and personal change should be used when studying these domains of psychological functioning.

Energy outlooks of young members of parliament

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tolonen, P.

1999-01-01

Pekka Tolonen Energy outlooks of young members of parliament The main theme is 'youth and nuclear energy'. This article presents opinions of young opinion leaders over energy policy and nuclear energy

Read your mail and more with Outlook 2007 - (IT3T/2007/4)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2007-01-01

IT3T/2007/4 - Lisez vos emails, et plus encore, avec Outlook 2007 Cette presentation vous expliquera, non seulement, comment utiliser Outlook 2007 pour envoyer et recevoir vos messages, mais aussi comment gérer un agenda, partager une boite aux lettres entre plusieurs personnes, conserver vos courriers dans votre ordinateur portable, utiliser la messagerie instantanée et configurer diverses options avancées comme le filtre anti-spam. IT3T/2007/4 - Read your mail and more with Outlook 2007 The presentation will explain how to use Outlook 2007 not only for sending and receiving messages but also for managing a personal calendar, sharing a mailbox between several people, keeping mails in a portable computer, using instant messaging and configuring various options including the anti-spam filter.

Lessons Learnt From Hurricane Katrina.

Science.gov (United States)

Akundi, Murty

2008-03-01

Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and its suburbs on Monday August 29^th, 2005. The previous Friday morning, August 26, the National Hurricane Center indicated that Katrina was a Category One Hurricane, which was expected to hit Florida. By Friday afternoon, it had changed its course, and neither the city nor Xavier University was prepared for this unexpected turn in the hurricane's path. The university had 6 to 7 ft of water in every building and Xavier was closed for four months. Students and university personnel that were unable to evacuate were trapped on campus and transportation out of the city became a logistical nightmare. Email and all electronic systems were unavailable for at least a month, and all cell phones with a 504 area code stopped working. For the Department, the most immediate problem was locating faculty and students. Xavier created a list of faculty and their new email addresses and began coordinating with faculty. Xavier created a web page with advice for students, and the chair of the department created a separate blog with contact information for students. The early lack of a clear method of communication made worse the confusion and dismay among the faculty on such issues as when the university would reopen, whether the faculty would be retained, whether they should seek temporary (or permanent) employment elsewhere, etc. With the vision and determination of President Dr. Francis, Xavier was able to reopen the university in January and ran a full academic year from January through August. Since Katrina, the university has asked every department and unit to prepare emergency preparedness plans. Each department has been asked to collect e-mail addresses (non-Xavier), cell phone numbers and out of town contact information. The University also established an emergency website to communicate. All faculty have been asked to prepare to teach classes electronically via Black board or the web. Questions remain about the longer term issues of

Hurricane disturbance benefits nesting American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus)

Science.gov (United States)

Simons, Theodore R.; Schulte, Shiloh A.

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems are under increasing pressure from human activity, introduced species, sea level rise, and storm activity. Hurricanes are a powerful destructive force, but can also renew coastal habitats. In 2003, Hurricane Isabel altered the barrier islands of North Carolina, flattening dunes and creating sand flats. American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) are large shorebirds that inhabit the coastal zone throughout the year. Alternative survival models were evaluated for 699 American Oystercatcher nests on North Core Banks and South Core Banks, North Carolina, USA, from 1999–2007. Nest survival on North Core Banks increased from 0.170 (SE = 0.002) to 0.772 (SE = 0.090) after the hurricane, with a carry-over effect lasting 2 years. A simple year effects model described nest survival on South Core Banks. Habitat had no effect on survival except when the overall rate of nest survival was at intermediate levels (0.300–0.600), when nests on open flats survived at a higher rate (0.600; SE = 0.112) than nests in dune habitat (0.243; SE = 0.094). Predator activity declined on North Core Banks after the hurricane and corresponded with an increase in nest survival. Periodic years with elevated nest survival may offset low annual productivity and contribute to the stability of American Oystercatcher populations.

Mass Media Use by College Students during Hurricane Threat

Science.gov (United States)

Piotrowski, Chris

2015-01-01

There is a dearth of studies on how college students prepare for the threat of natural disasters. This study surveyed college students' preferences in mass media use prior to an approaching hurricane. The convenience sample (n = 76) were from a university located in the hurricane-prone area of the central Gulf of Mexico coast. Interestingly,…

Generic Hurricane Extreme Seas State

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wehmeyer, Christof; Skourup, Jesper; Frigaard, Peter

2012-01-01

Extreme sea states, which the IEC 61400-3 (2008) standard requires for the ultimate limit state (ULS) analysis of offshore wind turbines are derived to establish the design basis for the conceptual layout of deep water floating offshore wind turbine foundations in hurricane affected areas....... Especially in the initial phase of floating foundation concept development, site specific metocean data are usually not available. As the areas of interest are furthermore not covered by any design standard, in terms of design sea states, generic and in engineering terms applicable environmental background...... data is required for a type specific conceptual design. ULS conditions for different return periods are developed, which can subsequently be applied in siteindependent analysis and conceptual design. Recordings provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), of hurricanes along...

World Energy Outlook Special Report 2012: Iraq Energy Outlook

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

Iraq is already the world’s third largest oil exporter. It has the resources and intention to increase its oil production vastly. Contracts are already in place. Will Iraq’s ambitions be realised? And what would the implications be for Iraq’s economy and for world oil markets? The obstacles are formidable: political, logistical, legal, regulatory, financial, lack of security and sufficient skilled labour. One example: in 2011 grid electricity could meet only 55% of demand. The International Energy Agency has studied these issues with the support and close cooperation of the government of Iraq and many other leading officials, commentators, industry representatives and international experts. This special report, in the World Energy Outlook series, presents the findings.

Satellite Assessment of Bio-Optical Properties of Northern Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Science.gov (United States)

Lohrenz, Steven E; Cai, Wei-Jun; Chen, Xiaogang; Tuel, Merritt

2008-07-10

The impacts of major tropical storms events on coastal waters include sediment resuspension, intense water column mixing, and increased delivery of terrestrial materials into coastal waters. We examined satellite imagery acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ocean color sensor aboard the Aqua spacecraft following two major hurricane events: Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall on 29 August 2005, and Hurricane Rita, which made landfall on 24 September. MODIS Aqua true color imagery revealed high turbidity levels in shelf waters immediately following the storms indicative of intense resuspension. However, imagery following the landfall of Katrina showed relatively rapid return of shelf water mass properties to pre-storm conditions. Indeed, MODIS Aqua-derived estimates of diffuse attenuation at 490 nm (K_490) and chlorophyll (chlor_a) from mid-August prior to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina were comparable to those observed in mid-September following the storm. Regions of elevated K_490 and chlor_a were evident in offshore waters and appeared to be associated with cyclonic circulation (cold-core eddies) identified on the basis of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA). Imagery acquired shortly after Hurricane Rita made landfall showed increased water column turbidity extending over a large area of the shelf off Louisiana and Texas, consistent with intense resuspension and sediment disturbance. An interannual comparison of satellite-derived estimates of K_490 for late September and early October revealed relatively lower levels in 2005, compared to the mean for the prior three years, in the vicinity of the Mississippi River birdfoot delta. In contrast, levels above the previous three year mean were observed off Texas and Louisiana 7-10 d after the passage of Rita. The lower values of K_490 near the delta could be attributed to relatively low river discharge during the preceding months of the 2005 season. The elevated levels off Texas and

Nonlinear analysis of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Rojo-Garibaldi

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Hurricanes are complex systems that carry large amounts of energy. Their impact often produces natural disasters involving the loss of human lives and materials, such as infrastructure, valued at billions of US dollars. However, not everything about hurricanes is negative, as hurricanes are the main source of rainwater for the regions where they develop. This study shows a nonlinear analysis of the time series of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea obtained from 1749 to 2012. The construction of the hurricane time series was carried out based on the hurricane database of the North Atlantic basin hurricane database (HURDAT and the published historical information. The hurricane time series provides a unique historical record on information about ocean–atmosphere interactions. The Lyapunov exponent indicated that the system presented chaotic dynamics, and the spectral analysis and nonlinear analyses of the time series of the hurricanes showed chaotic edge behavior. One possible explanation for this chaotic edge is the individual chaotic behavior of hurricanes, either by category or individually regardless of their category and their behavior on a regular basis.

Nonlinear analysis of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Rojo-Garibaldi, Berenice; Salas-de-León, David Alberto; Adela Monreal-Gómez, María; Sánchez-Santillán, Norma Leticia; Salas-Monreal, David

2018-04-01

Hurricanes are complex systems that carry large amounts of energy. Their impact often produces natural disasters involving the loss of human lives and materials, such as infrastructure, valued at billions of US dollars. However, not everything about hurricanes is negative, as hurricanes are the main source of rainwater for the regions where they develop. This study shows a nonlinear analysis of the time series of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea obtained from 1749 to 2012. The construction of the hurricane time series was carried out based on the hurricane database of the North Atlantic basin hurricane database (HURDAT) and the published historical information. The hurricane time series provides a unique historical record on information about ocean-atmosphere interactions. The Lyapunov exponent indicated that the system presented chaotic dynamics, and the spectral analysis and nonlinear analyses of the time series of the hurricanes showed chaotic edge behavior. One possible explanation for this chaotic edge is the individual chaotic behavior of hurricanes, either by category or individually regardless of their category and their behavior on a regular basis.

Using data envelopment analysis to evaluate the performance of post-hurricane electric power restoration activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reilly, Allison C.; Davidson, Rachel A.; Nozick, Linda K.; Chen, Thomas; Guikema, Seth D.

2016-01-01

Post-hurricane restoration of electric power is attracting increasing scrutiny as customers’ tolerance for even short power interruptions decreases. At the peak, 8.5 million customers were without power after Hurricane Sandy and over 1 million customers were without power more than a week after the storm made landfall. Currently, restoration processes are typically evaluated on a case-by-case basis by a regional public service commission or similar body and lack systematic comparisons to other restoration experiences. This paper introduces a framework using data envelopment analysis to help evaluate post-hurricane restorations through comparison with the experiences of other companies in similar storms. The method accounts for the variable severity of the hurricanes themselves, so that companies are not penalized for outages that are long only because the hurricane that caused them was particularly severe. The analysis is illustrated through an application comparing 27 recent post-hurricane restoration experiences across 13 different electric power companies in the United States. The results of the study show some consistency in performance among individual utilities after the hurricanes they experience. The method could be applied to other types of infrastructure systems and other extreme events as well. - Highlights: • A Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) framework is developed to compare post- hurricane power-outage restoration performance. • Hurricane severity is considered, so that utilities are not penalized for long outages caused by severe storms. • A case study using real data compares 27 recent post-hurricane restoration experiences. • The results of the study show utilities tend to perform consistently after the hurricanes they experience.

Retrieving hurricane wind speeds using cross-polarization C-band measurements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Zadelhoff, G.J.; Stoffelen, A.; Vachon, P.W.; Wolfe, J.; Horstmann, J.; Belmonte Rivas, M.

2014-01-01

Hurricane-force wind speeds can have a large societal impact and in this paper microwave C-band cross-polarized (VH) signals are investigated to assess if they can be used to derive extreme wind-speed conditions. European satellite scatterometers have excellent hurricane penetration capability at

Hurricane Loss Analysis Based on the Population-Weighted Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grzegorz Kakareko

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses different measures for quantifying regional hurricane loss. The main measures used in the past are normalized percentage loss and dollar value loss. In this research, we show that these measures are useful but may not properly reflect the size of the population influenced by hurricanes. A new loss measure is proposed that reflects the hurricane impact on people occupying the structure. For demonstrating the differences among these metrics, regional loss analysis was conducted for Florida. The regional analysis was composed of three modules: the hazard module stochastically modeled the wind occurrence in the region; the vulnerability module utilized vulnerability functions developed in this research to calculate the loss; and the financial module quantified the hurricane loss. In the financial module, we calculated three loss metrics for certain region. The first metric is the average annual loss (AAL which represents the expected loss per year in percentage. The second is the average annual dollar loss which represents the expected dollar amount loss per year. The third is the average annual population-weighted loss (AAPL—a new measure proposed in this research. Compared with the AAL, the AAPL reflects the number of people influenced by the hurricane. The advantages of the AAPL are illustrated using three different analysis examples: (1 conventional regional loss analysis, (2 mitigation potential analysis, and (3 forecasted future loss analysis due to the change in population.

HURRICANE AND SEVERE STORM SENTINEL (HS3) FLIGHT REPORTS V1

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Flight Reports provide information about flights flown by the WB-57 and Global Hawk aircrafts during the Hurricane and...

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer Wind Speed and Rain Rate Retrievals during the 2010 GRIP Flight Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Sahawneh, Saleem; Farrar, Spencer; Johnson, James; Jones, W. Linwood; Roberts, Jason; Biswas, Sayak; Cecil, Daniel

2014-01-01

Microwave remote sensing observations of hurricanes, from NOAA and USAF hurricane surveillance aircraft, provide vital data for hurricane research and operations, for forecasting the intensity and track of tropical storms. The current operational standard for hurricane wind speed and rain rate measurements is the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a nadir viewing passive microwave airborne remote sensor. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer, HIRAD, will extend the nadir viewing SFMR capability to provide wide swath images of wind speed and rain rate, while flying on a high altitude aircraft. HIRAD was first flown in the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes, GRIP, NASA hurricane field experiment in 2010. This paper reports on geophysical retrieval results and provides hurricane images from GRIP flights. An overview of the HIRAD instrument and the radiative transfer theory based, wind speed/rain rate retrieval algorithm is included. Results are presented for hurricane wind speed and rain rate for Earl and Karl, with comparison to collocated SFMR retrievals and WP3D Fuselage Radar images for validation purposes.

Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, S.C.; Alizad, K.A.; Medeiros, S.C.; Passeri, Davina L.; Needham, H.F.; Cox, A.

2016-01-01

This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static (“bathtub”) modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

Analyzing after-action reports from Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina: repeated, modified, and newly created recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Knox, Claire Connolly

2013-01-01

Thirteen years after Hurricane Andrew struck Homestead, FL, Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, Alabama, and southeastern Louisiana. Along with all its destruction, the term "catastrophic" was redefined. This article extends the literature on these hurricanes by providing a macrolevel analysis of The Governor's Disaster Planning and Response Review Committee Final Report from Hurricane Andrew and three federal after-action reports from Hurricane Katrina, as well as a cursory review of relevant literature. Results provide evidence that previous lessons have not been learned or institutionalized with many recommendations being repeated or modified. This article concludes with a discussion of these lessons, as well as new issues arising during Hurricane Katrina.

Algal, coral, and other data collected by ROV and scuba diver videography from M.V. FLING and M.V. SPREE for Post-Hurricane Assessment of Sensitive Habitats of the Flower Garden Banks Vicinity project from November 13, 2005 to June 23, 2007 (NCEI Accession 0061208)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The most active hurricane season on record in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico occurred in 2005, fueled by higher than normal sea-surface temperatures. Eleven...

Coastal Sediment Distribution Patterns Following Category 5 Hurricanes (Irma and Maria): Pre and Post Hurricane High Resolution Multibeam Surveys of Eastern St. John, US Virgin Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Browning, T. N.; Sawyer, D. E.; Russell, P.

2017-12-01

In August of 2017 we collected high resolution multibeam data of the seafloor in a large embayment in eastern St. John, US Virgin Islands (USVI). One month later, the eyewall of Category 5 Hurricane Irma directly hit St. John as one of the largest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic Ocean. A week later, Category 5 Hurricane Maria passed over St. John. While the full extent of the impacts are still being assessed, the island experienced a severe loss of vegetation, infrastructure, buildings, roads, and boats. We mobilized less than two months afterward to conduct a repeat survey of the same area on St. John. We then compared these data to document and quantify the sediment influx and movement that occurred in coastal embayments as a result of Hurricanes Irma and Maria. The preliminary result of the intense rain, wind, and storm surge likely yields an event deposit that can be mapped and volumetrically quantified in the bays of eastern St. John. The results of this study allow for a detailed understanding of the post-hurricane pulse of sediment that enters the marine environment, the sediment flux seaward, and the morphological changes to the bay floor.

A Coordinated USGS Science Response to Hurricane Sandy

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, S.; Buxton, H. T.; Andersen, M.; Dean, T.; Focazio, M. J.; Haines, J.; Hainly, R. A.

2013-12-01

In late October 2012, Hurricane Sandy came ashore during a spring high tide on the New Jersey coastline, delivering hurricane-force winds, storm tides exceeding 19 feet, driving rain, and plummeting temperatures. Hurricane Sandy resulted in 72 direct fatalities in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, and widespread and substantial physical, environmental, ecological, social, and economic impacts estimated at near $50 billion. Before the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, the USGS provided forecasts of potential coastal change; collected oblique aerial photography of pre-storm coastal morphology; deployed storm-surge sensors, rapid-deployment streamgages, wave sensors, and barometric pressure sensors; conducted Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) aerial topographic surveys of coastal areas; and issued a landslide alert for landslide prone areas. During the storm, Tidal Telemetry Networks provided real-time water-level information along the coast. Long-term networks and rapid-deployment real-time streamgages and water-quality monitors tracked river levels and changes in water quality. Immediately after the storm, the USGS serviced real-time instrumentation, retrieved data from over 140 storm-surge sensors, and collected other essential environmental data, including more than 830 high-water marks mapping the extent and elevation of the storm surge. Post-storm lidar surveys documented storm impacts to coastal barriers informing response and recovery and providing a new baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The USGS Hazard Data Distribution System served storm-related information from many agencies on the Internet on a daily basis. Immediately following Hurricane Sandy the USGS developed a science plan, 'Meeting the Science Needs of the Nation in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy-A U.S. Geological Survey Science Plan for Support of Restoration and Recovery'. The plan will ensure continuing coordination of internal USGS activities as well as

World LNG outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maisonnier, G.

1999-01-01

CEDIGAZ proposes this new survey about LNG in view of the main changes which have occurred on this market during the past few years. Several projects under construction or planned three years ago are now commissioned (Qatargas) or on the verge of starting to export this year (Trinidad LNG, RasGas, Nigeria LNG) or next years (Oman LNG). The Asian crisis, which had major impacts on both short-term demand in Asia and LNG prices, has brought about new uncertainties to the long-term prospects. At the same time, it now seems more and more certain that firstly India and then China will import LNG in the next decade. It remains to be seen at what level and when this will occur. LNG growth in Europe has now become a reality, and new potential markets, for example in South America (Brazil), are also being considered as real opportunities in the near future. Considering these 'new' trends, an updated study about LNG appeared necessary. This survey 'World LNG Outlook - 99 Edition' is organised as the previous one: a historical record since 1964 (Chapter 1) followed by a description of the infrastructures existing in 1998 (Chapter 2). The analysis continues with world trade prospects by the year 2010 (Chapters 3 to 5). Chapter 6 describes the future LNG chain and the last Chapter (7) focuses on economic matters (LNG price trends, cost reductions). The study 'World LNG Outlook - 99 Edition' offers hence a comprehensive panorama of this sector from a short and long-term point of view. (author)

Emotional outlook on life predicts increases in physical activity among initially inactive men.

Science.gov (United States)

Baruth, Meghan; Lee, Duck-Chul; Sui, Xuemei; Church, Timothy S; Marcus, Bess H; Wilcox, Sara; Blair, Steven N

2011-04-01

This study examined the relationship between emotional outlook on life and change in physical activity among inactive adults in the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study. A total of 2,132 sedentary adults completed a baseline medical examination and returned for a follow-up examination at least 6 months later. Participants self-reported physical activity level and emotional outlook on life. Emotional outlook on life was significantly and positively related to physical activity participation at the follow-up visit in men but not women. Men who were usually very happy and optimistic at baseline had significantly greater increases in physical activity compared to men who were not happy. Men with a more positive outlook on life (e.g., happier) may be more likely to increase physical activity levels. Physical activity interventions targeting men may be more successful if they first increase happiness.

A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

2017-03-21

A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

Epidemic gasoline exposures following Hurricane Sandy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hong K; Takematsu, Mai; Biary, Rana; Williams, Nicholas; Hoffman, Robert S; Smith, Silas W

2013-12-01

Major adverse climatic events (MACEs) in heavily-populated areas can inflict severe damage to infrastructure, disrupting essential municipal and commercial services. Compromised health care delivery systems and limited utilities such as electricity, heating, potable water, sanitation, and housing, place populations in disaster areas at risk of toxic exposures. Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012 and caused severe infrastructure damage in heavily-populated areas. The prolonged electrical outage and damage to oil refineries caused a gasoline shortage and rationing unseen in the USA since the 1970s. This study explored gasoline exposures and clinical outcomes in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Prospectively collected, regional poison control center (PCC) data regarding gasoline exposure cases from October 29, 2012 (hurricane landfall) through November 28, 2012 were reviewed and compared to the previous four years. The trends of gasoline exposures, exposure type, severity of clinical outcome, and hospital referral rates were assessed. Two-hundred and eighty-three gasoline exposures were identified, representing an 18 to 283-fold increase over the previous four years. The leading exposure route was siphoning (53.4%). Men comprised 83.0% of exposures; 91.9% were older than 20 years of age. Of 273 home-based calls, 88.7% were managed on site. Asymptomatic exposures occurred in 61.5% of the cases. However, minor and moderate toxic effects occurred in 12.4% and 3.5% of cases, respectively. Gastrointestinal (24.4%) and pulmonary (8.4%) symptoms predominated. No major outcomes or deaths were reported. Hurricane Sandy significantly increased gasoline exposures. While the majority of exposures were managed at home with minimum clinical toxicity, some patients experienced more severe symptoms. Disaster plans should incorporate public health messaging and regional PCCs for public health promotion and toxicological surveillance.

Hurricane Sandy beach response and recovery at Fire Island, New York: Shoreline and beach profile data, October 2012 to October 2014

Science.gov (United States)

Hehre Henderson, Rachel E.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Brenner, Owen T.; Reynolds, Billy J.

2015-04-30

In response to the forecasted impact of Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall on October 29, 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a substantial data-collection effort to assess the morphological impacts to the beach and dune system at Fire Island, New York. Global positioning system (GPS) field surveys of the beach and dunes were conducted just prior to and after landfall and these data were used to quantify change in several focus areas. In order to quantify morphologic change along the entire length of the island, pre-storm (May 2012) and post-storm (November 2012) lidar and aerial photography were used to assess changes to the shoreline and beach.As part of the USGS Hurricane Sandy Supplemental Fire Island Study, the beach is monitored periodically to enable better understanding of post-Sandy recovery. The alongshore state of the beach is recorded using a differential global positioning system (DGPS) to collect data around the mean high water (MHW; 0.46 meter North American Vertical Datum of 1988) to derive a shoreline, and the cross-shore response and recovery are measured along a series of 10 profiles.Overall, Hurricane Sandy substantially altered the morphology of Fire Island. However, the coastal system rapidly began to recover after the 2012­–13 winter storm season and continues to recover in the form of volume gains and shoreline adjustment.

Long-term response of Caribbean palm forests to hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Ariel Lugo; J.L. Frangi

2016-01-01

We studied the response of Prestoea montana (Sierra Palm, hereafter Palm) brakes and a Palm floodplain forest to hurricanes in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Over a span of 78 years, 3 hurricanes passed over the study sites for which we have 64 years of measurements for Palm brakes and 20 years for the Palm floodplain forest. For each stand, species...

CERN Technical Training 2004: New Short Courses (SC) on Microsoft Outlook

CERN Multimedia

Monique Duval

2004-01-01

The CERN Technical Training programme is now proposing a new format for courses on Microsoft Outlook. Three two-hours Short Courses (SC) will cover basic and advanced functionalities of the recommended mail client for email at CERN. Each module can be followed independently. The next scheduled sessions will take place as follows: Outlook (SC I): E-mail. Next session: 31.8.2004 (9h00-11h00) Outlook (SC II): Calendar, Tasks and Notes. Next session: 31.8.2004 (14h00-16h00) Outlook (SC III): Meetings and Delegation. Next session: 7.9.2004 (14h00-16h00) In particular, SC I will cover how to open, create and send email, work with attachments, use stationery, organise mail, and work with the address book, SC II will show how to work with the calendar, tasks and notes, and SC III will cover how to organise and manage meetings, work with meeting requests, share tasks, and use email and calendar delegation. The number of participants to each session is limited to 8. The instructor is English-French bilingual, and she...

Outlook: The Next Twenty Years

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murayama, Hitoshi

2003-12-07

I present an outlook for the next twenty years in particle physics. I start with the big questions in our field, broken down into four categories: horizontal, vertical, heaven, and hell. Then I discuss how we attack the bigquestions in each category during the next twenty years. I argue for a synergy between many different approaches taken in our field.

Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, 2nd quarter 1994

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-05-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1994 through the fourth quarter of 1995. Values for the first quarter of 1994, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available. The historical energy data, compiled into the second quarter 1994 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the STIFS. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. The EIA model is available on computer tape from the National Technical Information Service.

Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model. Pt. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bengtsson, L.; Botzet, M.; Esch, M.

1994-01-01

A very high resolution atmospheric general circulation model, T106-L19, has been used for the simulation of hurricanes in a multi-year numerical experiment. Individual storms as well as their geographical and seasonal distribution agree remarkably well with observations. In spite of the fact that only the thermal and dynamical structure of the storms have been used as criteria of their identification, practically all of them occur in areas where the sea surface temperature is higher or equal to 26 C. There are some variations from year to year in the number of storms in spite of the fact that there are no interannual variations in the SST pattern. It is found that the number of storms in particular areas depend on the intensity of the Hadley-Walker cell. The result is clearly resolution dependant. At lower horizonal resolution, T42, for example, the intensity of the storms is significantly reduced and their overall structure is less realistic, including their vertical form and extention. (orig.)

Spatial Ecology of Puerto Rican Boas (Epicrates inornatus) in a Hurricane Impacted Forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph M. Wunderle Jr.; Javier E. Mercado Bernard Parresol Esteban Terranova 2

2004-01-01

Spatial ecology of Puerto Rican boas (Epicrates inornatus, Boidae) was studied with radiotelemetry in a subtropical wet forest recovering from a major hurricane (7–9 yr previous) when Hurricane Georges struck. Different boas were studied during three periods relative to Hurricane Georges: before only; before and after; and after only. Mean daily movement per month...

International energy outlook 1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-04-01

The International Energy Outlook 1998 (IEO98) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2020. Projections in IEO98 are displaced according to six basic country groupings. The industrialized region includes projections for four individual countries -- the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Japan -- along with the subgroups Western Europe and Australasia (defined as Australia, New Zealand, and the US Territories). The developing countries are represented by four separate regional subgroups: developing Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Central and South America. China and India are represented in developing Asia. New to this year`s report, country-level projections are provided for Brazil -- which is represented in Central and South America. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU) are considered as a separate country grouping. The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand. Regional consumption projections for oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and renewable energy (hydroelectricity, geothermal, wind, solar, and other renewables) are presented in five fuel chapters, with a review of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. Summary tables of the IEO98 projections for world energy consumption, carbon emissions, oil production, and nuclear power generating capacity are provided in Appendix A. 88 figs., 77 tabs.

An interim report on the outlook of long-term energy supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

An interim report was presented by the supply/demand committee in Over-all Energy Council concerning the energy demand and supply outlook for fiscal 1990 as compared with fiscal 1980. The background for deciding the outlook of energy supply and demand and basic ideas for energy policy, and the outlook for energy supply and demand are outlined. The outlook was prepared, assuming yearly economic growth of about 5 % in 1980s and the utmost efforts by people in energy situation. The energy situation both domestic and abroad is largely changing, including energy saving efforts and petroleum price. The aggregate energy demand for fiscal 1990 was put at about 590 million kl in terms of crude oil. Then, concerning nuclear power generation, the power supply by nuclear energy in fiscal 1990 was estimated at 46 million kw accounting for 11.3 % of the total power supply. (Mori, K.)

Hurricane Risk Variability along the Gulf of Mexico Coastline

Science.gov (United States)

Trepanier, Jill C.; Ellis, Kelsey N.; Tucker, Clay S.

2015-01-01

Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran’s I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs. PMID:25767885

Hurricane risk variability along the Gulf of Mexico coastline.

Science.gov (United States)

Trepanier, Jill C; Ellis, Kelsey N; Tucker, Clay S

2015-01-01

Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran's I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs.

Infrasonic ray tracing applied to mesoscale atmospheric structures: refraction by hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Bedard, Alfred J; Jones, R Michael

2013-11-01

A ray-tracing program is used to estimate the refraction of infrasound by the temperature structure of the atmosphere and by hurricanes represented by a Rankine-combined vortex wind plus a temperature perturbation. Refraction by the hurricane winds is significant, giving rise to regions of focusing, defocusing, and virtual sources. The refraction of infrasound by the temperature anomaly associated with a hurricane is small, probably no larger than that from uncertainties in the wind field. The results are pertinent to interpreting ocean wave generated infrasound in the vicinities of tropical cyclones.

Hurricane Mitch: Peak Discharge for Selected River Reachesin Honduras

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Mark E.; Phillips, Jeffrey V.; Spahr, Norman E.

2002-01-01

Hurricane Mitch began as a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea on 22 October 1998. By 26 October, Mitch had strengthened to a Category 5 storm as defined by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (National Climate Data Center, 1999a), and on 27 October was threatening the northern coast of Honduras (fig. 1). After making landfall 2 days later (29 October), the storm drifted south and west across Honduras, wreaking destruction throughout the country before reaching the Guatemalan border on 31 October. According to the National Climate Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (National Climate Data Center, 1999b), Hurricane Mitch ranks among the five strongest storms on record in the Atlantic Basin in terms of its sustained winds, barometric pressure, and duration. Hurricane Mitch also was one of the worst Atlantic storms in terms of loss of life and property. The regionwide death toll was estimated to be more than 9,000; thousands of people were reported missing. Economic losses in the region were more than $7.5 billion (U.S. Agency for International Development, 1999). Honduras suffered the most widespread devastation during the storm. More than 5,000 deaths, and economic losses of more than $4 billion, were reported by the Government of Honduras. Honduran officials estimated that Hurricane Mitch destroyed 50 years of economic development. In addition to the human and economic losses, intense flooding and landslides scarred the Honduran landscape - hydrologic and geomorphologic processes throughout the country likely will be affected for many years. As part of the U.S. Government's response to the disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted post-flood measurements of peak discharge at 16 river sites throughout Honduras (fig. 2). Such measurements, termed 'indirect' measurements, are used to determine peak flows when direct measurements (using current meters or dye studies, for example) cannot be made. Indirect measurements of

Effects of Hurricane Hugo: Mental Health Workers and Community Members.

Science.gov (United States)

Muzekari, Louis H.; And Others

This paper reports the effects of Hurricane Hugo on mental health workers and indigenous community members. The response and perceptions of mental health staff from the South Carolina Department of Mental Health (Go Teams) from areas unaffected by the hurricane were compared and contrasted with those of a subsequent Hugo Outreach Support Team…

Hurricane Katrina - Murphy Oil Spill Boundary

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

OECD environmental outlook to 2030

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

2008-01-01

... achievable and that they are affordable. But we need to act now, while it is still relatively inexpensive, particularly in the rapidly emerging economies. One scenario in this Outlook found that if we are willing to accept a 98% increase in global GDP from now to 2030 - rather than the 99% in our Baseline - we could achieve significant improvements in air and water quali...

Biogeochemical Impact of Hurricane Harvey on Texas Coastal Lagoons

Science.gov (United States)

Montagna, P.; Hu, X.; Walker, L.; Wetz, M.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey made landfall Friday 25 August 2017 as a Category 4 hurricane, which is the strongest hurricane to hit the middle Texas coast since Carla in 1961. After the wind storm and storm surge, coastal flooding occurred due to the storm lingering over Texas for four more days, dumping as much as 50" of rain near Houston, producing 1:1000 year flood event. The Texas coast is characterized by lagoons behind barrier islands, and their ecology and biogeochemistry are strongly influenced by coastal hydrology. The ensuing inflow event replaced brackish water with fresh water that was high in inorganic an organic matter, significantly enhancing respiration of coastal blue carbon, and dissolved oxygen went to zero for a long period of time. Recovery will likely take months or nearly one year.

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.; Shugart, Herman H.

2017-01-01

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model -based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes, manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the

Hurricane Harvey Building Damage Assessment Using UAV Data

Science.gov (United States)

Yeom, J.; Jung, J.; Chang, A.; Choi, I.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey which was extremely destructive major hurricane struck southern Texas, U.S.A on August 25, causing catastrophic flooding and storm damages. We visited Rockport suffered severe building destruction and conducted UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) surveying for building damage assessment. UAV provides very high resolution images compared with traditional remote sensing data. In addition, prompt and cost-effective damage assessment can be performed regardless of several limitations in other remote sensing platforms such as revisit interval of satellite platforms, complicated flight plan in aerial surveying, and cloud amounts. In this study, UAV flight and GPS surveying were conducted two weeks after hurricane damage to generate an orthomosaic image and a DEM (Digital Elevation Model). 3D region growing scheme has been proposed to quantitatively estimate building damages considering building debris' elevation change and spectral difference. The result showed that the proposed method can be used for high definition building damage assessment in a time- and cost-effective way.

Hurricane Arthur and its effect on the short-term variability of pCO2 on the Scotian Shelf, NW Atlantic

Science.gov (United States)

Lemay, Jonathan; Thomas, Helmuth; Craig, Susanne E.; Burt, William J.; Fennel, Katja; Greenan, Blair J. W.

2018-04-01

The understanding of the seasonal variability of carbon cycling on the Scotian Shelf in the NW Atlantic Ocean has improved in recent years; however, very little information is available regarding its short-term variability. In order to shed light on this aspect of carbon cycling on the Scotian Shelf we investigate the effects of Hurricane Arthur, which passed the region on 5 July 2014. The hurricane caused a substantial decline in the surface water partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2), even though the Scotian Shelf possesses CO2-rich deep waters. High-temporal-resolution data of moored autonomous instruments demonstrate that there is a distinct layer of relatively cold water with low dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) slightly above the thermocline, presumably due to a sustained population of phytoplankton. Strong storm-related wind mixing caused this cold intermediate layer with high phytoplankton biomass to be entrained into the surface mixed layer. At the surface, phytoplankton begin to grow more rapidly due to increased light. The combination of growth and the mixing of low DIC water led to a short-term reduction in the partial pressure of CO2 until wind speeds relaxed and allowed for the restratification of the upper water column. These hurricane-related processes caused a (net) CO2 uptake by the Scotian Shelf region that is comparable to the spring bloom, thus exerting a major impact on the annual CO2 flux budget.

Hindcasting of Storm Surges, Currents, and Waves at Lower Delaware Bay during Hurricane Isabel

Science.gov (United States)

Salehi, M.

2017-12-01

Hurricanes are a major threat to coastal communities and infrastructures including nuclear power plants located in low-lying coastal zones. In response, their sensitive elements should be protected by smart design to withstand against drastic impact of such natural phenomena. Accurate and reliable estimate of hurricane attributes is the first step to that effort. Numerical models have extensively grown over the past few years and are effective tools in modeling large scale natural events such as hurricane. The impact of low probability hurricanes on the lower Delaware Bay is investigated using dynamically coupled meteorological, hydrodynamic, and wave components of Delft3D software. Efforts are made to significantly reduce the computational overburden of performing such analysis for the industry, yet keeping the same level of accuracy at the area of study (AOS). The model is comprised of overall and nested domains. The overall model domain includes portion of Atlantic Ocean, Delaware, and Chesapeake bays. The nested model domain includes Delaware Bay, its floodplain, and portion of the continental shelf. This study is portion of a larger modeling effort to study the impact of low probability hurricanes on sensitive infrastructures located at the coastal zones prone to hurricane activity. The AOS is located on the east bank of Delaware Bay almost 16 miles upstream of its mouth. Model generated wind speed, significant wave height, water surface elevation, and current are calibrated for hurricane Isabel (2003). The model calibration results agreed reasonably well with field observations. Furthermore, sensitivity of surge and wave responses to various hurricane parameters was tested. In line with findings from other researchers, accuracy of wind field played a major role in hindcasting the hurricane attributes.

Hurricane Wind Speed Estimation Using WindSat 6 and 10 GHz Brightness Temperatures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Zhang

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The realistic and accurate estimation of hurricane intensity is highly desired in many scientific and operational applications. With the advance of passive microwave polarimetry, an alternative opportunity for retrieving wind speed in hurricanes has become available. A wind speed retrieval algorithm for wind speeds above 20 m/s in hurricanes has been developed by using the 6.8 and 10.7 GHz vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperatures of WindSat. The WindSat measurements for 15 category 4 and category 5 hurricanes from 2003 to 2010 and the corresponding H*wind analysis data are used to develop and validate the retrieval model. In addition, the retrieved wind speeds are also compared to the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS global all-weather product and stepped-frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR measurements. The statistical results show that the mean bias and the overall root-mean-square (RMS difference of the retrieved wind speeds with respect to the H*wind analysis data are 0.04 and 2.75 m/s, respectively, which provides an encouraging result for retrieving hurricane wind speeds over the ocean surface. The retrieved wind speeds show good agreement with the SFMR measurements. Two case studies demonstrate that the mean bias and RMS difference are 0.79 m/s and 1.79 m/s for hurricane Rita-1 and 0.63 m/s and 2.38 m/s for hurricane Rita-2, respectively. In general, the wind speed retrieval accuracy of the new model in hurricanes ranges from 2.0 m/s in light rain to 3.9 m/s in heavy rain.

An Organic Molecular Approach towards the Reconstruction of Past Hurricane Activity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lammers, J. M.; van Soelen, E.; Liebrand, D.; Donders, T.; Reichart, G. J.

2009-01-01

The relationship between global warming and hurricane activity is the focus of considerable interest and intensive research. The available instrumental record, however, is still too short to document and understand the long term climatic controls on hurricane generation. Only by extending the

Mental health outcomes among adults in Galveston and Chambers counties after Hurricane Ike.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruggiero, Kenneth J; Gros, Kirstin; McCauley, Jenna L; Resnick, Heidi S; Morgan, Mark; Kilpatrick, Dean G; Muzzy, Wendy; Acierno, Ron

2012-03-01

  To examine the mental health effects of Hurricane Ike, the third costliest hurricane in US history, which devastated the upper Texas coast in September 2008.   Structured telephone interviews assessing immediate effects of Hurricane Ike (damage, loss, displacement) and mental health diagnoses were administered via random digit-dial methods to a household probability sample of 255 Hurricane Ike-affected adults in Galveston and Chambers counties.   Three-fourths of respondents evacuated the area because of Hurricane Ike and nearly 40% were displaced for at least one week. Postdisaster mental health prevalence estimates were 5.9% for posttraumatic stress disorder, 4.5% for major depressive episode, and 9.3% for generalized anxiety disorder. Bivariate analyses suggested that peritraumatic indicators of hurricane exposure severity-such as lack of adequate clean clothing, electricity, food, money, transportation, or water for at least one week-were most consistently associated with mental health problems.   The significant contribution of factors such as loss of housing, financial means, clothing, food, and water to the development and/or maintenance of negative mental health consequences highlights the importance of systemic postdisaster intervention resources targeted to meet basic needs in the postdisaster period.

Hurricanes and coral bleaching linked to changes in coral recruitment in Tobago.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallela, J; Crabbe, M J C

2009-10-01

Knowledge of coral recruitment patterns helps us understand how reefs react following major disturbances and provides us with an early warning system for predicting future reef health problems. We have reconstructed and interpreted historical and modern-day recruitment patterns, using a combination of growth modelling and in situ recruitment experiments, in order to understand how hurricanes, storms and bleaching events have influenced coral recruitment on the Caribbean coastline of Tobago. Whilst Tobago does not lie within the main hurricane belt results indicate that regional hurricane events negatively impact coral recruitment patterns in the Southern Caribbean. In years following hurricanes, tropical storms and bleaching events, coral recruitment was reduced when compared to normal years (p=0.016). Following Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and the 2005-2006 bleaching event, coral recruitment was markedly limited with only 2% (n=6) of colonies estimated to have recruited during 2006 and 2007. Our experimental results indicate that despite multiple large-scale disturbances corals are still recruiting on Tobago's marginal reef systems, albeit in low numbers.

A look into hurricane Maria rapid intensification using Meteo-France's Arome-Antilles model.

Science.gov (United States)

Pilon, R.; Faure, G.; Dupont, T.; Chauvin, F.

2017-12-01

Category 5 Hurricane Maria created a string of humanitarian crises. It caused billions of dollars of damage over the Caribbean but is also one of the worst natural disaster in Dominica.The hurricane took approximately 29 hours to strengthen from a tropical storm to a major category 5 hurricane. Here we present real-time forecasts of high resolution (2.5 km) Arome-Antilles regional model forced by real-time ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System. The model was able to relatively represent well the rapid intensification of the hurricane whether it was in timing or in location of the eye and strength of its eye wall.We will present an outline of results.

Hydrologic aspects of Hurricane Hugo in South Carolina, September 1989

Science.gov (United States)

Schuck-Kolben, R. E.; Cherry, R.N.

1995-01-01

Hurricane Hugo, with winds in excess of 135 miles per hour(mi/h), made landfall near Charleston, S.C., early on the morning of September 22, 1989. It was the most destructive hurricane ever experienced in South Carolina. The storm caused 35 deaths and $7 billion in property damage in South Carolina (Purvis, 1990).This report documents some hydrologic effects of Hurricane Hugo along the South Carolina coast. The report includes maps showing storm-tide stage and profiles of the maximum storm-tide stages along the outer coast. Storm-tide stage frequency information is presented and changes in beach morphology and water quality of coastal streams resulting from the storm are described.

Spectral Growth of Hurricane Generated Seas

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Finlayson, William

1997-01-01

The characteristics of a growing sea during hurricanes are significantly different from those observed in ordinary storms since the source of energy generating waves is moving and the rate of change...

Effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita on Louisiana black bear habitat

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Joseph D.; Murrow, Jennifer L.

2012-01-01

The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) is comprised of 3 subpopulations, each being small, geographically isolated, and vulnerable to extinction. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita struck the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts in 2005, potentially altering habitat occupied by this federally threatened subspecies. We used data collected on radio-telemetered bears from 1993 to 1995 and pre-hurricane landscape data to develop a habitat model based on the Mahalanobis distance (D2) statistic. We then applied that model to post-hurricane landscape data where the telemetry data were collected (i.e., occupied study area) and where bear range expansion might occur (i.e., unoccupied study area) to quantify habitat loss or gain. The D2 model indicated that quality bear habitat was associated with areas of high mast-producing forest density, low water body density, and moderate forest patchiness. Cross-validation and testing on an independent data set in central Louisiana indicated that prediction and transferability of the model were good. Suitable bear habitat decreased from 348 to 345 km2 (0.9%) within the occupied study area and decreased from 34,383 to 33,891 km2 (1.4%) in the unoccupied study area following the hurricanes. Our analysis indicated that bear habitat was not significantly degraded by the hurricanes, although changes that could have occurred on a microhabitat level would be more difficult to detect at the resolution we used. We suggest that managers continue to monitor the possible long-term effects of these hurricanes (e.g., vegetation changes from flooding, introduction of toxic chemicals, or water quality changes).

Diagnostics comparing sea surface temperature feedbacks from operational hurricane forecasts to observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ian D. Lloyd

2011-11-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the ability of recent versions of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Operational Hurricane Forecast Model (GHM to reproduce the observed relationship between hurricane intensity and hurricane-induced Sea Surface Temperature (SST cooling. The analysis was performed by taking a Lagrangian composite of all hurricanes in the North Atlantic from 1998–2009 in observations and 2005–2009 for the GHM. A marked improvement in the intensity-SST relationship for the GHM compared to observations was found between the years 2005 and 2006–2009 due to the introduction of warm-core eddies, a representation of the loop current, and changes to the drag coefficient parameterization for bulk turbulent flux computation. A Conceptual Hurricane Intensity Model illustrates the essential steady-state characteristics of the intensity-SST relationship and is explained by two coupled equations for the atmosphere and ocean. The conceptual model qualitatively matches observations and the 2006–2009 period in the GHM, and presents supporting evidence for the conclusion that weaker upper oceanic thermal stratification in the Gulf of Mexico, caused by the introduction of the loop current and warm core eddies, is crucial to explaining the observed SST-intensity pattern. The diagnostics proposed by the conceptual model offer an independent set of metrics for comparing operational hurricane forecast models to observations.

Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Tchounwou

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE obtained at the equilibrium level (EL, from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

Performance of Oil Infrastructure during Hurricane Harvey

Science.gov (United States)

Bernier, C.; Kameshwar, S.; Padgett, J.

2017-12-01

Three major refining centers - Corpus Christi, Houston, and Beaumont/Port Arthur - were affected during Hurricane Harvey. Damage to oil infrastructure, especially aboveground storage tanks (ASTs), caused the release of more than a million gallons of hazardous chemicals in the environment. The objective of this presentation is to identify and gain a better understanding of the different damage mechanisms that occurred during Harvey in order to avoid similar failures during future hurricane events. First, a qualitative description of the damage suffered by ASTs during Hurricane Harvey is presented. Analysis of aerial imagery and incident reports indicate that almost all spills were caused by rainfall and the associated flooding. The largest spill was caused by two large ASTs that floated due to flooding in the Houston Ship Channel releasing 500,000 gallons of gasoline. The vulnerability of ASTs subjected to flooding was already well known and documented from previous storm events. In addition to flooding, Harvey also exposed the vulnerability of ASTs with external floating roof to extreme rainfall; more than 15 floating roofs sank or tilted due to rain water accumulation on them, releasing pollutants in the atmosphere. Secondly, recent fragility models developed by the authors are presented which allow structural vulnerability assessment of floating roofs during rainfall events and ASTs during flood events. The fragility models are then coupled with Harvey rainfall and flood empirical data to identify the conditions (i.e.: internal liquid height or density, drainage system design and efficiency, etc.) that could have led to the observed failures during Hurricane Harvey. Finally, the conditions causing tank failures are studied to propose mitigation measures to prevent future AST failures during severe storm, flood, or rainfall events.

Quantifying human mobility perturbation and resilience in Hurricane Sandy.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qi Wang

Full Text Available Human mobility is influenced by environmental change and natural disasters. Researchers have used trip distance distribution, radius of gyration of movements, and individuals' visited locations to understand and capture human mobility patterns and trajectories. However, our knowledge of human movements during natural disasters is limited owing to both a lack of empirical data and the low precision of available data. Here, we studied human mobility using high-resolution movement data from individuals in New York City during and for several days after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. We found the human movements followed truncated power-law distributions during and after Hurricane Sandy, although the β value was noticeably larger during the first 24 hours after the storm struck. Also, we examined two parameters: the center of mass and the radius of gyration of each individual's movements. We found that their values during perturbation states and steady states are highly correlated, suggesting human mobility data obtained in steady states can possibly predict the perturbation state. Our results demonstrate that human movement trajectories experienced significant perturbations during hurricanes, but also exhibited high resilience. We expect the study will stimulate future research on the perturbation and inherent resilience of human mobility under the influence of hurricanes. For example, mobility patterns in coastal urban areas could be examined as hurricanes approach, gain or dissipate in strength, and as the path of the storm changes. Understanding nuances of human mobility under the influence of such disasters will enable more effective evacuation, emergency response planning and development of strategies and policies to reduce fatality, injury, and economic loss.

Tropical Atlantic Hurricanes, Easterly Waves, and West African Mesoscale Convective Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yves K. Kouadio

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The relationship between tropical Atlantic hurricanes (Hs, atmospheric easterly waves (AEWs, and West African mesoscale convective systems (MCSs is investigated. It points out atmospheric conditions over West Africa before hurricane formation. The analysis was performed for two periods, June–November in 2004 and 2005, during which 12 hurricanes (seven in 2004, five in 2005 were selected. Using the AEW signature in the 700 hPa vorticity, a backward trajectory was performed to the African coast, starting from the date and position of each hurricane, when and where it was catalogued as a tropical depression. At this step, using the Meteosat-7 satellite dataset, we selected all the MCSs around this time and region, and tracked them from their initiation until their dissipation. This procedure allowed us to relate each of the selected Hs with AEWs and a succession of MCSs that occurred a few times over West Africa before initiation of the hurricane. Finally, a dipole in sea surface temperature (SST was observed with a positive SST anomaly within the region of H generation and a negative SST anomaly within the Gulf of Guinea. This SST anomaly dipole could contribute to enhance the continental convergence associated with the monsoon that impacts on the West African MCSs formation.

Documentation and hydrologic analysis of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, October 29–30, 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Suro, Thomas P.; Deetz, Anna; Hearn, Paul

2016-11-17

In 2012, a late season tropical depression developed into a tropical storm and later a hurricane. The hurricane, named “Hurricane Sandy,” gained strength to a Category 3 storm on October 25, 2012, and underwent several transitions on its approach to the mid-Atlantic region of the eastern coast of the United States. By October 28, 2012, Hurricane Sandy had strengthened into the largest hurricane ever recorded in the North Atlantic and was tracking parallel to the east coast of United States, heading toward New Jersey. On October 29, 2012, the storm turned west-northwest and made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. The high winds and wind-driven storm surge caused massive damage along the entire coastline of New Jersey. Millions of people were left without power or communication networks. Many homes were completely destroyed. Sand dunes were eroded, and the barrier island at Mantoloking was breached, connecting the ocean with Barnegat Bay.Several days before the storm made landfall in New Jersey, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) made a decision to deploy a temporary network of storm-tide sensors and barometric pressure sensors from Virginia to Maine to supplement the existing USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent tide monitoring stations. After the storm made landfall, the USGS conducted a sensor data recovery and high-water-mark collection campaign in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).Peak storm-tide elevations documented at USGS tide gages, tidal crest-stage gages, temporary storm sensor locations, and high-water-mark sites indicate the area from southern Monmouth County, N.J., north through Raritan Bay, N.J., had the highest peak storm-tide elevations during this storm. The USGS tide gages at Raritan River at South Amboy and Raritan Bay at Keansburg, part of the New Jersey Tide Telemetry System, each recorded peak storm-tide elevations of greater than 13 feet (ft)—more than 5 ft

Nordic Energy Outlook 2012. Proceedings; Energiutblick 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-11-01

Conference arenas: Effective energy use, Energy and market, Future energy, Technology for growth, as well as Open arena. The Open arena gives other actors in the energy sector the opportunity to host their own activities as a side event to Nordic Energy Outlook.

Bottom Scour Observed Under Hurricane Ivan

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Teague, William J; Jarosz, Eva; Keen, Timothy R; Wang, David W; Hulbert, Mark S

2006-01-01

Observations that extensive bottom scour along the outer continental shelf under Hurricane Ivan resulted in the displacement of more than 100 million cubic meters of sediment from a 35x15 km region...

Supplement to the annual energy outlook 1995

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1995-02-01

This section of the Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 present the major assumptions of the modeling system used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (AEO95). In this context, assumptions include general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports listed in Appendix B. A synopsis of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented. The NEMS is developed and maintained by the office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projection of domestic energy-economy markets in the midterm time period and perform policy analyses requested by various government agencies and the private sector.

A Comparison of HWRF, ARW and NMM Models in Hurricane Katrina (2005 Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anjaneyulu Yerramilli

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The life cycle of Hurricane Katrina (2005 was simulated using three different modeling systems of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF mesoscale model. These are, HWRF (Hurricane WRF designed specifically for hurricane studies and WRF model with two different dynamic cores as the Advanced Research WRF (ARW model and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM. The WRF model was developed and sourced from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, incorporating the advances in atmospheric simulation system suitable for a broad range of applications. The HWRF modeling system was developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP based on the NMM dynamic core and the physical parameterization schemes specially designed for tropics. A case study of Hurricane Katrina was chosen as it is one of the intense hurricanes that caused severe destruction along the Gulf Coast from central Florida to Texas. ARW, NMM and HWRF models were designed to have two-way interactive nested domains with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The three different models used in this study were integrated for three days starting from 0000 UTC of 27 August 2005 to capture the landfall of hurricane Katrina on 29 August. The initial and time varying lateral boundary conditions were taken from NCEP global FNL (final analysis data available at 1 degree resolution for ARW and NMM models and from NCEP GFS data at 0.5 degree resolution for HWRF model. The results show that the models simulated the intensification of Hurricane Katrina and the landfall on 29 August 2005 agreeing with the observations. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over ARW and NMM models in predicting the track and intensification of Hurricane Katrina.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Hazards Outlook

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center releases a US Hazards Outlook daily, Monday through Friday. The product highlights regions of anticipated hazardous weather during the...

Dissolved and colloidal trace elements in the Mississippi River delta outflow after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Shim, Moo-Joon; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Shiller, Alan M.

2012-07-01

The Mississippi River delta outflow region is periodically disturbed by tropical weather systems including major hurricanes, which can terminate seasonal bottom water hypoxia and cause the resuspension of shelf bottom sediments which could result in the injection of trace elements into the water column. In the summer of 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita passed over the Louisiana Shelf within a month of each other. Three weeks after Rita, we collected water samples in the Mississippi River delta outflow, examining the distributions of trace elements to study the effect of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. We observed limited stratification on the shelf and bottom waters that were no longer hypoxic. This resulted, for instance, in bottom water dissolved Mn being lower than is typically observed during hypoxia, but with concentrations still compatible with Mn-O2 trends previously reported. Interestingly, for no element were we able to identify an obvious effect of sediment resuspension on its distribution. In general, elemental distributions were compatible with previous observations in the Mississippi outflow system. Co and Re, which have not been reported for this system previously, showed behavior consistent with other systems: input for Co likely from desorption and conservative mixing for Re. For Cs, an element for which there is little information regarding its estuarine behavior, conservative mixing was also observed. Our filtration method, which allowed us to distinguish the dissolved (<0.02 μm) from colloidal (0.02-0.45 μm) phase, revealed significant colloidal fractions for Fe and Zn, only. For Fe, the colloidal phase was the dominant fraction and was rapidly removed at low salinity. Dissolved Fe, in contrast, persisted out to mid-salinities, being removed in a similar fashion to nitrate. This ability to distinguish the smaller Fe (likely dominantly organically complexed) from larger colloidal suspensates may be useful in better interpreting the bioavailablity

Impacts of Hurricane Rita on the beaches of western Louisiana: Chapter 5D in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Fauver, Laura A.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Wright, C. Wayne

2007-01-01

Hurricane Rita made landfall as a category 3 storm in western Louisiana in late September 2005, 1 month following Hurricane Katrina's devastating landfall in the eastern part of the State. Large waves and storm surge inundated the lowelevation coastline, destroying many communities and causing extensive coastal change including beach, dune, and marsh erosion.

Lightning and radar observations of hurricane Rita landfall

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Henderson, Bradley G [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Suszcynsky, David M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hamlin, Timothy E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Jeffery, C A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Wiens, Kyle C [TEXAS TECH U.; Orville, R E [TEXAS A& M

2009-01-01

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) owns and operates an array of Very-Low Frequency (VLF) sensors that measure the Radio-Frequency (RF) waveforms emitted by Cloud-to-Ground (CG) and InCloud (IC) lightning. This array, the Los Alamos Sferic Array (LASA), has approximately 15 sensors concentrated in the Great Plains and Florida, which detect electric field changes in a bandwidth from 200 Hz to 500 kHz (Smith et al., 2002). Recently, LANL has begun development of a new dual-band RF sensor array that includes the Very-High Frequency (VHF) band as well as the VLF. Whereas VLF lightning emissions can be used to deduce physical parameters such as lightning type and peak current, VHF emissions can be used to perform precise 3d mapping of individual radiation sources, which can number in the thousands for a typical CG flash. These new dual-band sensors will be used to monitor lightning activity in hurricanes in an effort to better predict intensification cycles. Although the new LANL dual-band array is not yet operational, we have begun initial work utilizing both VLF and VHF lightning data to monitor hurricane evolution. In this paper, we present the temporal evolution of Rita's landfall using VLF and VHF lightning data, and also WSR-88D radar. At landfall, Rita's northern eyewall experienced strong updrafts and significant lightning activity that appear to mark a transition between oceanic hurricane dynamics and continental thunderstorm dynamics. In section 2, we give a brief overview of Hurricane Rita, including its development as a hurricane and its lightning history. In the following section, we present WSR-88D data of Rita's landfall, including reflectivity images and temporal variation. In section 4, we present both VHF and VLF lightning data, overplotted on radar reflectivity images. Finally, we discuss our observations, including a comparison to previous studies and a brief conclusion.

Satellite Assessment of Bio-Optical Properties of Northern Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Merritt Tuel

2008-07-01

Full Text Available The impacts of major tropical storms events on coastal waters include sediment resuspension, intense water column mixing, and increased delivery of terrestrial materials into coastal waters. We examined satellite imagery acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS ocean color sensor aboard the Aqua spacecraft following two major hurricane events: Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall on 29 August 2005, and Hurricane Rita, which made landfall on 24 September. MODIS Aqua true color imagery revealed high turbidity levels in shelf waters immediately following the storms indicative of intense resuspension. However, imagery following the landfall of Katrina showed relatively rapid return of shelf water mass properties to pre-storm conditions. Indeed, MODIS Aqua-derived estimates of diffuse attenuation at 490 nm (K_490 and chlorophyll (chlor_a from mid-August prior to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina were comparable to those observed in mid-September following the storm. Regions of elevated K_490 and chlor_a were evident in offshore waters and appeared to be associated with cyclonic circulation (cold-core eddies identified on the basis of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA. Imagery acquired shortly after Hurricane Rita made landfall showed increased water column turbidity extending over a large area of the shelf off Louisiana and Texas, consistent with intense resuspension and sediment disturbance. An interannual comparison of satellite-derived estimates of K_490 for late September and early October revealed relatively lower levels in 2005, compared to the mean for the prior three years, in the vicinity of the Mississippi River birdfoot delta. In contrast, levels above the previous three year mean were observed off Texas and Louisiana 7-10 d after the passage of Rita. The lower values of K_490 near the delta could be attributed to relatively low river discharge during the preceding months of the 2005 season. The elevated levels

Hurricane Irene Poster (August 27, 2011)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Irene poster. Color composite GOES image shows Irene moving through the North Carolina Outer Banks on August 27, 2011. Poster size is 36"x27"

Canadian natural gas : review of 2003 and outlook to 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-12-01

This presentation provides a summary of natural gas industry trends in Canada and the United States and also reviews Canadian natural gas exports in order to initiate dialogue with the industry and obtain feedback on Natural Resources Canada's interpretations of natural gas issues. The objective of this report is to provide an understanding of the overall North American natural gas picture, largely excluding Mexico, in a graphical format. This document examines market fundamentals in 2003, in 2004 and early 2005, and the long-term to 2020. The presentation first takes a review of 2003 by examining natural gas demand, supply, resources and reserves, storage, prices, and Canadian exports, imports and domestic sales. It then presents its short-term outlook. It concludes with the outlook to 2020 including demand, supply, prices, and Canadian exports and domestic sales. The document also contains appendices on coalbed methane in Canada, liquefied natural gas in Canada, as well as a five year review and outlook of North American natural gas pipelines. 28 refs., 15 tabs., 59 figs., 3 appendices

Identification of Caribbean basin hurricanes from Spanish documentary sources

OpenAIRE

García Herrera, Ricardo; Gimeno, Luis; Ribera, Pedro; Hernández, Emiliano; González, Ester; Fernández, Guadalupe

2007-01-01

This paper analyses five hurricanes that occurred in the period 1600 to 1800. These examples were identified during a systematic search in the General Archive of the Indies (AGI) in Seville. The research combined the expertise of climatologists and historians in order to optimise the search and analysis strategies. Results demonstrate the potential of this archive for the assessment of hurricanes in this period and show some of the difficulties involved in the collection of evidence of hurric...

Price Increases in the Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina: Authority to Limit Price Gouging

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Welborn, Angie A; Flynn, Aaron M

2005-01-01

.... Specifically, questions have arisen regarding increased prices in the areas affected by Hurricane Katrina and the effect that the damage caused by the hurricane will have on prices, specifically...

Long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-01-01

An interim report on the long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies in Japan as prepared by an ad hoc committee, Advisory Committee for Energy was given for the period up to the year 2000. As the energy demands in terms of crude oil, the following figures are set: 460 million kl for 1990, 530 million kl for 1995, and 600 million kl for 2000. In Japan, without domestic energy resources, over 80% of the primary energy has been imported; the reliance on Middle East where political situation is unstable, for petroleum is very large. The following things are described. Background and policy; energy demands in industries, transports, and people's livelihood; energy supplies by coal, nuclear energy, petroleum, etc.; energy demand/supply outlook for 2000. (Mori, K.)

Life course transitions and natural disaster: marriage, birth, and divorce following Hurricane Hugo.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohan, Catherine L; Cole, Steve W

2002-03-01

Change in marriage, birth, and divorce rates following Hurricane Hugo in 1989 were examined prospectively from 1975 to 1997 for all counties in South Carolina. Stress research and research on economic circumstances suggested that marriages and births would decline and divorces would increase in affected counties after the hurricane. Attachment theory suggested that marriages and births would increase and divorces would decline after the hurricane. Time-series analysis indicated that the year following the hurricane, marriage, birth, and divorce rates increased in the 24 counties declared disaster areas compared with the 22 other counties in the state. Taken together, the results suggested that a life-threatening event motivated people to take significant action in their close relationships that altered their life course.

Mosquito fauna and arbovirus surveillance in a coastal Mississippi community after Hurricane Katrina.

Science.gov (United States)

Foppa, Ivo M; Evans, Christopher L; Wozniak, Arthur; Wills, William

2007-06-01

Hurricane Katrina caused massive destruction and flooding along the Gulf Coast in August 2005. We collected mosquitoes and tested them for arboviral infection in a severely hurricane-damaged community to determine species composition and to assess the risk of a mosquito-borne epidemic disease in that community about 6 wk after the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. Light-trap collections yielded 8,215 mosquitoes representing 19 species, while limited gravid-trap collections were not productive. The most abundant mosquito species was Culex nigripalpus, which constituted 73.6% of all specimens. No arboviruses were detected in any of the mosquitoes collected in this survey, which did not support the assertion that human risk for arboviral infection was increased in the coastal community 6 wk after the hurricane.

Modeling lost production from destroyed platforms in the 2004-2005 Gulf of Mexico hurricane seasons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaiser, Mark J.; Yu, Yunke; Jablonowski, Christopher J.

2009-01-01

Hurricanes Ivan, Katrina, and Rita passed through the Gulf of Mexico during 2004 and 2005 and resulted in the largest number of destroyed and damaged offshore oil and gas structures in the history of Gulf operations. In the final official government assessment, a total of 126 platforms were destroyed and over 183 structures were identified as having extensive damage. Production associated with wells and structures that are not redeveloped are classified as lost. The purpose of this paper is to derive functional relations that describe the likely contribution the collection of destroyed assets would have made to future production in the Gulf of Mexico. We estimate that the total remaining reserves from the set of destroyed structures range in value between 1.3 and 4.5 billion depending on the assumptions employed. We summarize the impact of the storms on the Gulf of Mexico oil and gas infrastructure and discuss the main issues involved in redevelopment decision making. A meta-model analytic framework is applied to perform sensitivity analysis and to explore the interactions of assumptions on model output. A discussion of the limitations of the analysis is presented. (author)

Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

2013-12-01

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

The intertropical convergence zone modulates intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin.

Science.gov (United States)

van Hengstum, Peter J; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Fall, Patricia L; Toomey, Michael R; Albury, Nancy A; Kakuk, Brian

2016-02-24

Most Atlantic hurricanes form in the Main Development Region between 9°N to 20°N along the northern edge of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Previous research has suggested that meridional shifts in the ITCZ position on geologic timescales can modulate hurricane activity, but continuous and long-term storm records are needed from multiple sites to assess this hypothesis. Here we present a 3000 year record of intense hurricane strikes in the northern Bahamas (Abaco Island) based on overwash deposits in a coastal sinkhole, which indicates that the ITCZ has likely helped modulate intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin on millennial to centennial-scales. The new reconstruction closely matches a previous reconstruction from Puerto Rico, and documents a period of elevated intense hurricane activity on the western North Atlantic margin from 2500 to 1000 years ago when paleo precipitation proxies suggest that the ITCZ occupied a more northern position. Considering that anthropogenic warming is predicted to be focused in the northern hemisphere in the coming century, these results provide a prehistoric analog that an attendant northern ITCZ shift in the future may again return the western North Atlantic margin to an active hurricane interval.

Hurricane Agnes rainfall and floods, June-July 1972

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, James F.; Patterson, James Lee; Paulhus, Joseph Louis Hornore

1975-01-01

Hurricane Agnes originated in the Caribbean Sea region in mid-June. Circulation barely reached hurricane intensity for a brief period in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm crossed the Florida Panhandle coastline on June 19, 1972, and followed an unusually extended overland trajectory combining with an extratropical system to bring very heavy rain from the Carolinas northward to New York. This torrential rain followed the abnormally wet May weather in the Middle Atlantic States and set the stage for the subsequent major flooding. The record-breaking floods occurred in the Middle Atlantic States in late June and early July 1972. Many streams in the affected area experienced peak discharges several times the previous maxima of record. Estimated recurrence intervals of peak flows at many gaging stations on major rivers and their tributaries exceeded 100 years. The suspended-sediment concentration and load of most flooded streams were also unusually high. The widespread flooding from this storm caused Agnes to be called the most destructive hurricane in United States history, claiming 117 lives and causing damage estimated at $3.1 billion in 12 States. Damage was particularly high in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia. The detailed life history of Hurricane Agnes, including the tropical depression and tropical storm stages, is traced. Associated rainfalls are analyzed and compared with climatologic recurrence values. These are followed by a detailed description of the flood and streamflows of each affected basin. A summary of peak stages and discharges and comparison data for previous floods at 989 stations are presented. Deaths and flood damage estimates are compiled.

Coal in India: current status and outlook - Panorama 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The world cannot do without coal. This energy source covers more than one-quarter (28.4% in 2006) of all primary energy consumption and is used to generate nearly 40% of all electricity consumed worldwide. All scenarios and forecasts agree that coal consumption will be growing substantially, driven mostly by China and India. According to the IEA reference scenario (World Energy Outlook 2007), these two countries are expected to account for 82% of the increase in global coal demand by 2030. The outlook for India gives cause for concern: despite a strong domestic coal industry, it could eventually become a major importer. If so, what will the economic, industrial and environmental consequences be?

Influence of hurricane wind field in the structure of directional wave spectra

Science.gov (United States)

Esquivel-Trava, Bernardo; Ocampo-Torres, Francisco J.; Osuna, Pedro

2015-04-01

Extensive field measurements of wind waves in deep waters in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, have been analyzed to describe the spatial structure of directional wave spectra during hurricane conditions. Following Esquivel-Trava et al. (2015) this analysis was made for minor hurricanes (categories 1 and 2) and major hurricanes (categories 3, 4 and 5). In both cases the directionality of the energy wave spectrum is similar in all quadrants. Some differences are observed however, and they are associated with the presence and the shape of swell energy in each quadrant. Three numerical experiments using the spectral wave prediction model SWAN were carried out to gain insight into the mechanism that controls the directional and frequency distributions of hurricane wave energy. The aim of the experiments is to evaluate the effect of the translation speed of the hurricane and the presence of concentric eye walls, on both the wave growth process and the shape of the directional wave spectrum. The HRD wind field of Hurricane Dean on August 20 at 7:30 was propagated at two different velocities (5 and 10 m/s). An idealized concentric eye wall (a Gaussian function that evolve in time along a path in the form of an Archimedean spiral) was imposed to the wind field. The white-capping formulation of Westhuysen et al. (2007) was selected. The wave model represents fairly well the directionality of the energy and the shape of the directional spectra in the hurricane domain. The model results indicate that the forward movement of the storm influences the development of the waves, consistent with field observations. This work has been supported by CONACYT scholarship 164510 and projects RugDisMar (155793), CB-2011-01-168173 and the Department of Physical Oceanography of CICESE. References Esquivel-Trava, B., Ocampo-Torres, F. J., & Osuna, P. (2015). Spatial structure of directional wave spectra in hurricanes. Ocean Dynam., 65(1), 65-76. doi:10.1007/s10236-014-0791-9 Van der

Observational Estimates of the Horizontal Eddy Diffusivity and Mixing Length in the Low-Level Region of Intense Hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-01

flight-level data collected by research aircraft that penetrated the eyewalls of Category 5 Hurricane Hugo (1989), Category 4 Hurricane Allen (1980) and...data collected by research aircraft that penetrated the eyewalls of Category 5 Hurricane Hugo 42 (1989), Category 4 Hurricane Allen (1980) and Category...understood. 87 Using the data from the periods of eyewall penetrations in the intense Hurricanes Hugo 88 (1989) and Allen (1980), Zhang et al. (2011a

Microseisms from Hurricane "Hilda".

Science.gov (United States)

De Bremaecker, J C

1965-06-25

As hurricane "Hilda" crossed the Gulf of Mexico the dominant period of the microseisms shifted from about 8 to 5 seconds as the eye reached water about 150 to 200 meters deep. The conversion of wind energy to microseismic energy is most efficient in water depths from 20 to 200 meters. There is no evidence that two periods, one twice the other, are present.

Mold exposure and health effects following hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Science.gov (United States)

Barbeau, Deborah N; Grimsley, L Faye; White, LuAnn E; El-Dahr, Jane M; Lichtveld, Maureen

2010-01-01

The extensive flooding in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita created conditions ideal for indoor mold growth, raising concerns about the possible adverse health effects associated with indoor mold exposure. Studies evaluating the levels of indoor and outdoor molds in the months following the hurricanes found high levels of mold growth. Homes with greater flood damage, especially those with >3 feet of indoor flooding, demonstrated higher levels of mold growth compared with homes with little or no flooding. Water intrusion due to roof damage was also associated with mold growth. However, no increase in the occurrence of adverse health outcomes has been observed in published reports to date. This article considers reasons why studies of mold exposure after the hurricane do not show a greater health impact.

2012-2013 Post-Hurricane Sandy EAARL-B Submerged Topography - Barnegat Bay, New Jersey

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Binary point-cloud data for part of Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, post-Hurricane Sandy (October 2012 hurricane), were produced from remotely sensed, geographically...

Has Anthropogenic Forcing Caused a Discernible Change in Atlantic Hurricane Activity?

Science.gov (United States)

Knutson, T. R.; Vecchi, G. A.

2007-12-01

There is currently evidence both for and against the existence of a discernible anthropogenic impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. Emanuel's (pers. comm. 2007) Power Dissipation Index shows unprecedented high values in recent decades in the context of the past 60 yr, and correlates remarkably well with low-frequency tropical Atlantic SST variations. The limited record length, partial basin coverage by aircraft in the pre-satellite era, and lack of reconciliation with models limit the usefulness of this result for identifying possible anthropogenic influences. Landsea (EOS, 2007) uses landfalling storm statistics to infer no significant increase in basin-wide tropical storm counts since 1900. Landsea's critical assumption of a constant landfalling fraction over time limits confidence in this assessment. Nonetheless, an important finding is that U.S. landfalling hurricane activity (frequency and PDI) show no increasing trend over the past century or so. Holland and Webster (Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2007) conclude that basin-wide tropical cyclone and hurricane counts have increased dramatically during the past century, related to the rise in tropical Atlantic SSTs. Their key assumption is that the existing HURDAT data reliably portrays basin-wide statistics for tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, at least back to ~1900, which requires further substantiation. We use historical Atlantic ship track and storm track data to estimate the expected number of missing tropical storms each year in the pre-satellite era (1878-1965). After adjustment, the storm counts covary with tropical SSTs on multi-decadal time scales, but their long-term trend (1878-2006) is weaker than the trend in similarly normalized SSTs (though both are nominally positive). The linear trend in adjusted storm counts for 1900-2006 is strongly positive (+4.2 storms/century) and highly significant even after accounting for serial correlation. However, this trend begins near a local minimum in

Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, first quarter 1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-01-01

The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1998 through the fourth quarter of 1999. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the first quarter 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 24 figs., 19 tabs.

Hazardous substances releases associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in industrial settings, Louisiana and Texas.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruckart, Perri Zeitz; Orr, Maureen F; Lanier, Kenneth; Koehler, Allison

2008-11-15

The scientific literature concerning the public health response to the unprecedented hurricanes striking the Gulf Coast in August and September 2005 has focused mainly on assessing health-related needs and surveillance of injuries, infectious diseases, and other illnesses. However, the hurricanes also resulted in unintended hazardous substances releases in the affected states. Data from two states (Louisiana and Texas) participating in the Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance (HSEES) system were analyzed to describe the characteristics of hazardous substances releases in industrial settings associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. HSEES is an active multi-state Web-based surveillance system maintained by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR). In 2005, 166 hurricane-related hazardous substances events in industrial settings in Louisiana and Texas were reported. Most (72.3%) releases were due to emergency shut downs in preparation for the hurricanes and start-ups after the hurricanes. Emphasis is given to the contributing causal factors, hazardous substances released, and event scenarios. Recommendations are made to prevent or minimize acute releases of hazardous substances during future hurricanes, including installing backup power generation, securing equipment and piping to withstand high winds, establishing procedures to shutdown process operations safely, following established and up-to-date start-up procedures and checklists, and carefully performing pre-start-up safety reviews.

Hazardous substances releases associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in industrial settings, Louisiana and Texas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruckart, Perri Zeitz; Orr, Maureen F.; Lanier, Kenneth; Koehler, Allison

2008-01-01

The scientific literature concerning the public health response to the unprecedented hurricanes striking the Gulf Coast in August and September 2005 has focused mainly on assessing health-related needs and surveillance of injuries, infectious diseases, and other illnesses. However, the hurricanes also resulted in unintended hazardous substances releases in the affected states. Data from two states (Louisiana and Texas) participating in the Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance (HSEES) system were analyzed to describe the characteristics of hazardous substances releases in industrial settings associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. HSEES is an active multi-state Web-based surveillance system maintained by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR). In 2005, 166 hurricane-related hazardous substances events in industrial settings in Louisiana and Texas were reported. Most (72.3%) releases were due to emergency shut downs in preparation for the hurricanes and start-ups after the hurricanes. Emphasis is given to the contributing causal factors, hazardous substances released, and event scenarios. Recommendations are made to prevent or minimize acute releases of hazardous substances during future hurricanes, including installing backup power generation, securing equipment and piping to withstand high winds, establishing procedures to shutdown process operations safely, following established and up-to-date start-up procedures and checklists, and carefully performing pre-start-up safety reviews

Hazardous substances releases associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in industrial settings, Louisiana and Texas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruckart, Perri Zeitz [Division of Health Studies, Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, Atlanta, GA (United States)], E-mail: afp4@cdc.gov; Orr, Maureen F. [Division of Health Studies, Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, Atlanta, GA (United States); Lanier, Kenneth; Koehler, Allison [Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals, Office of Public Health, New Orleans, LA (United States)

2008-11-15

The scientific literature concerning the public health response to the unprecedented hurricanes striking the Gulf Coast in August and September 2005 has focused mainly on assessing health-related needs and surveillance of injuries, infectious diseases, and other illnesses. However, the hurricanes also resulted in unintended hazardous substances releases in the affected states. Data from two states (Louisiana and Texas) participating in the Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance (HSEES) system were analyzed to describe the characteristics of hazardous substances releases in industrial settings associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. HSEES is an active multi-state Web-based surveillance system maintained by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR). In 2005, 166 hurricane-related hazardous substances events in industrial settings in Louisiana and Texas were reported. Most (72.3%) releases were due to emergency shut downs in preparation for the hurricanes and start-ups after the hurricanes. Emphasis is given to the contributing causal factors, hazardous substances released, and event scenarios. Recommendations are made to prevent or minimize acute releases of hazardous substances during future hurricanes, including installing backup power generation, securing equipment and piping to withstand high winds, establishing procedures to shutdown process operations safely, following established and up-to-date start-up procedures and checklists, and carefully performing pre-start-up safety reviews.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A CPC forecaster (from a rotating schedule of 5 as of August 2013) creates the Monthly Drought Outlook map and narratives. The map, produced using GIS, shows where...

Hurricane Arthur and its effect on the short-term variability of pCO2 on the Scotian Shelf, NW Atlantic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Lemay

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The understanding of the seasonal variability of carbon cycling on the Scotian Shelf in the NW Atlantic Ocean has improved in recent years; however, very little information is available regarding its short-term variability. In order to shed light on this aspect of carbon cycling on the Scotian Shelf we investigate the effects of Hurricane Arthur, which passed the region on 5 July 2014. The hurricane caused a substantial decline in the surface water partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2, even though the Scotian Shelf possesses CO2-rich deep waters. High-temporal-resolution data of moored autonomous instruments demonstrate that there is a distinct layer of relatively cold water with low dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC slightly above the thermocline, presumably due to a sustained population of phytoplankton. Strong storm-related wind mixing caused this cold intermediate layer with high phytoplankton biomass to be entrained into the surface mixed layer. At the surface, phytoplankton begin to grow more rapidly due to increased light. The combination of growth and the mixing of low DIC water led to a short-term reduction in the partial pressure of CO2 until wind speeds relaxed and allowed for the restratification of the upper water column. These hurricane-related processes caused a (net CO2 uptake by the Scotian Shelf region that is comparable to the spring bloom, thus exerting a major impact on the annual CO2 flux budget.

Online Media Use and Adoption by Hurricane Sandy Affected Fire and Police Departments

OpenAIRE

Chauhan, Apoorva

2014-01-01

In this thesis work, I examine the use and adoption of online communication media by 840 fire and police departments that were affected by the 2012 Hurricane Sandy. I began by exploring how and why these fire and police departments used (or did not use) online media to communicate with the public during Hurricane Sandy. Results show that fire and police departments used online media during Hurricane Sandy to give timely and relevant information to the public about things such as evacuations, ...

Water and erosion damage to coastal structures: South Carolina Coast, Hurricane Hugo, 1989

OpenAIRE

Wang, Hsiang

1990-01-01

Hurricane Hugo hit U.S. Mainland on September 21, 1989 just north of Charleston, South Carolina. It was billed as the most costly hurricane on record. The loss on the mainland alone exceeded 7 billion dollars, more than 15,000 homes were destroyed and the loss of lives exceeded forty. This article documents one aspect of the multi-destructions caused by the hurricane - the water and erosion damage on water front or near water front properties. A general damage surve...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWING HURRICANE KATRINA

Science.gov (United States)

On the morning of August 29, 2005 Hurricane Katrina struck the coast of Louisiana, between New Orleans and Biloxi, Mississippi, as a strong category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The massive winds and flooding had the potential for a tremendous environmental impac...

Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

2016-07-01

Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

A team approach to preparing for hurricanes and other disasters.

Science.gov (United States)

Kendig, Jim

2009-01-01

Applying lessons learned in Hurricane Floyd in 1999, a three-hospital system located on Florida's exposed Space Coast was able to better deal with the devastation caused by hurricanes in 2004 and make changes in its plans to better prepare for the named storms which hit its area in 2008. Each new disaster, the author points out, brings with it new challenges which have to be considered in disaster planning.

Predicting Heat Stress to Inform Reef Management: NOAA Coral Reef Watch's 4-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gang Liu

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW operates a global 4-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook system for shallow-water coral reefs in collaboration with NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP. The Outlooks are generated by applying the algorithm used in CRW's operational satellite coral bleaching heat stress monitoring, with slight modifications, to the sea surface temperature (SST predictions from NCEP's operational Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2. Once a week, the probability of heat stress capable of causing mass coral bleaching is predicted for 4-months in advance. Each day, CFSv2 generates an ensemble of 16 forecasts, with nine runs out to 45-days, three runs out to 3-months, and four runs out to 9-months. This results in 28–112 ensemble members produced each week. A composite for each predicted week is derived from daily predictions within each ensemble member. The probability of each of four heat stress ranges (Watch and higher, Warning and higher, Alert Level 1 and higher, and Alert Level 2 is determined from all the available ensemble members for the week to form the weekly probabilistic Outlook. The probabilistic 4-Month Outlook is the highest weekly probability predicted among all the weekly Outlooks during a 4-month period for each of the stress ranges. An initial qualitative skill analysis of the Outlooks for 2011–2015, compared with CRW's satellite-based coral bleaching heat stress products, indicated the Outlook has performed well with high hit rates and low miss rates for most coral reef areas. Regions identified with high false alarm rates will guide future improvements. This Outlook system, as the first and only freely available global coral bleaching prediction system, has been providing critical early warning to marine resource managers, scientists, and decision makers around the world to guide management, protection, and monitoring of coral reefs

On the Existence of the Logarithmic Surface Layer in the Inner Core of Hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

characteristics of eyewall boundary layer of Hurricane Hugo (1989). Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1447-1462. Zhang, JA, Montgomery MT. 2012 Observational...the inner core of hurricanes Roger K. Smitha ∗and Michael T. Montgomeryb a Meteorological Institute, University of Munich, Munich, Germany b Dept. of...logarithmic surface layer”, or log layer, in the boundary layer of the rapidly-rotating core of a hurricane . One such study argues that boundary-layer

Preparing for a Hurricane: Prescription Medications

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2006-08-10

What you should do to protect yourself and your family from a hurricane. As you evacuate, remember to take your prescription medicines with you.  Created: 8/10/2006 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 7/17/2008.

Transportation during and after Hurricane Sandy.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-11-01

"Hurricane Sandy demonstrated the strengths and limits of the transportation infrastructure in New York City and the surrounding region. As a result of the timely and thorough preparations by New York City and the MTA, along with the actions of city ...

Estimating the human influence on Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria

Science.gov (United States)

Wehner, M. F.; Patricola, C. M.; Risser, M. D.

2017-12-01

Attribution of the human-induced climate change influence on the physical characteristics of individual extreme weather events has become an advanced science over the past decade. However, it is only recently that such quantification of anthropogenic influences on event magnitudes and probability of occurrence could be applied to very extreme storms such as hurricanes. We present results from two different classes of attribution studies for the impactful Atlantic hurricanes of 2017. The first is an analysis of the record rainfall amounts during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas area. We analyzed observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of ENSO. We found that human-induced climate change likely increased Hurricane Harvey's total rainfall by at least 19%, and likely increased the chances of the observed rainfall by a factor of at least 3.5. This suggests that changes exceeded Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, motivating attribution studies using dynamical climate models. The second analysis consists of two sets of hindcast simulations of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at 4.5 km resolution. The first uses realistic boundary and initial conditions and present-day greenhouse gas forcings while the second uses perturbed conditions and pre-industrial greenhouse has forcings to simulate counterfactual storms without anthropogenic influences. These simulations quantify the fraction of Harvey's precipitation attributable to human activities and test the super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling suggested by the observational analysis. We will further quantify the human influence on intensity for Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

Caribbean Brain coral tracks the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Past Hurricane Intensity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hetzinger, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Dullo, W.-C.; Keenlyside, N.; Latif, M.; Zinke, J.

2008-01-01

It is highly debated whether global warming contributed to the strong hurricane activity observed during the last decade. The crux of the recent debate is the limited length of the reliable instrumental record that exacerbates the detection of possible long-term changes in hurricane activity, which

Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970–2005

Science.gov (United States)

Logan, John R.; Issar, Sukriti; Xu, Zengwang

2016-01-01

Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970–2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal—a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm’s way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices. PMID:27531504

Technical Training: CERN Technical Training 2004 - New Short Courses (SC) on Microsoft Outlook

CERN Multimedia

Monique Duval

2004-01-01

The CERN Technical Training programme is now proposing a new format for courses on Microsoft Outlook. Three two-hours Short Courses (SC) will cover basic and advanced functionalities of the recommended mail client for email at CERN. Each module can be followed independently. The next scheduled sessions will take place as follows: Outlook (SC I): E-mail. Next session: 31.8.2004 (9h00-11h00) Outlook (SC II): Calendar, Tasks and Notes. Next session: 31.8.2004 (14h00-16h00) Outlook (SC III): Meetings and Delegation. Next session: 7.9.2004 (14h00-16h00) In particular, SC I will cover how to open, create and send email, work with attachments, use stationery, organise mail, and work with the address book, SC II will show how to work with the calendar, tasks and notes, and SC III will cover how to organise and manage meetings, work with meeting requests, share tasks, and use email and calendar delegation. The number of participants to each session is limited to 8. The instructor is English-French bilingual, and s...

Condensation-induced kinematics and dynamics of cyclones, hurricanes and tornadoes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makarieva, A.M.; Gorshkov, V.G.

2009-01-01

A universal equation is obtained for air pressure and wind velocity in cyclones, hurricanes and tornadoes as dependent on the distance from the center of the considered wind pattern driven by water vapor condensation. The obtained theoretical estimates of the horizontal profiles of air pressure and wind velocity, eye and wind wall radius in hurricanes and tornadoes and maximum values of the radial, tangential and vertical velocity components are in good agreement with empirical evidence.

Optimization of Evacuation Warnings Prior to a Hurricane Disaster

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dian Sun

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The key purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that optimization of evacuation warnings by time period and impacted zone is crucial for efficient evacuation of an area impacted by a hurricane. We assume that people behave in a manner consistent with the warnings they receive. By optimizing the issuance of hurricane evacuation warnings, one can control the number of evacuees at different time intervals to avoid congestion in the process of evacuation. The warning optimization model is applied to a case study of Hurricane Sandy using the study region of Brooklyn. We first develop a model for shelter assignment and then use this outcome to model hurricane evacuation warning optimization, which prescribes an evacuation plan that maximizes the number of evacuees. A significant technical contribution is the development of an iterative greedy heuristic procedure for the nonlinear formulation, which is shown to be optimal for the case of a single evacuation zone with a single evacuee type case, while it does not guarantee optimality for multiple zones under unusual circumstances. A significant applied contribution is the demonstration of an interface of the evacuation warning method with a public transportation scheme to facilitate evacuation of a car-less population. This heuristic we employ can be readily adapted to the case where response rate is a function of evacuation number in prior periods and other variable factors. This element is also explored in the context of our experiment.

Hurricane shuts down gulf activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koen, A.D.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that producers in the Gulf of Mexico and plant operators in South Louisiana last week were checking for damage wrought by Hurricane Andrew. In its wake Andrew left evacuated rigs and platforms in the gulf and shuttered plants across a wide swath of the Gulf Coast. Operations were beginning to return to normal late last week. Not all gulf operators, especially in the central gulf, expected to return to offshore facilities. And even producers able to book helicopters did not expect to be able to fully assess damage to all offshore installations before the weekend. MMS officials in Washington estimated that 37,500 offshore workers were evacuated from 700 oil and gas installations on the gulf's Outer Continental Shelf. Gulf oil and gas wells account for about 800,000 b/d of oil and one fourth of total U.S. gas production. MMS was awaiting an assessment of hurricane damage before estimating how soon and how much gulf oil and gas production would be restored

Reprocessing: experience and future outlooks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rapin, M.

1981-01-01

It is shown that reprocessing is the best way to cope with irradiated fuels since it provides an optimized waste conditioning for long term storage, the possibility to recycle fissile material and the reduction of Pu diversion risk. The reprocessing constraints are discussed from political, technical, safety, public acceptance, and economical points of view. The French reprocessing programme (thermal reactor fuel fast breeder fuels) is presented together with a short review of the reprocessing experience and outlooks out of France [fr

EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IVAN ON WATER QUALITY IN PENSACOLA BAY, FL USA

Science.gov (United States)

Pensacola Bay was in the strong NE quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004 as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, ...

Application of a regional hurricane wind risk forecasting model for wood-frame houses.

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Vineet Kumar; Davidson, Rachel Ann

2007-02-01

Hurricane wind risk in a region changes over time due to changes in the number, type, locations, vulnerability, and value of buildings. A model was developed to quantitatively estimate changes over time in hurricane wind risk to wood-frame houses (defined in terms of potential for direct economic loss), and to estimate how different factors, such as building code changes and population growth, contribute to that change. The model, which is implemented in a simulation, produces a probability distribution of direct economic losses for each census tract in the study region at each time step in the specified time horizon. By changing parameter values and rerunning the analysis, the effects of different changes in the built environment on the hurricane risk trends can be estimated and the relative effectiveness of hypothetical mitigation strategies can be evaluated. Using a case study application for wood-frame houses in selected counties in North Carolina from 2000 to 2020, this article demonstrates how the hurricane wind risk forecasting model can be used: (1) to provide insight into the dynamics of regional hurricane wind risk-the total change in risk over time and the relative contribution of different factors to that change, and (2) to support mitigation planning. Insights from the case study include, for example, that the many factors contributing to hurricane wind risk for wood-frame houses interact in a way that is difficult to predict a priori, and that in the case study, the reduction in hurricane losses due to vulnerability changes (e.g., building code changes) is approximately equal to the increase in losses due to building inventory growth. The potential for the model to support risk communication is also discussed.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) One Month Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a probabilistic one-month precipitation outlook for the United States twice a month. CPC issues an initial monthly outlook...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) One Month Probabilistic Temperature Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a probabilistic one-month temperature outlook for the United States twice a month. CPC issues an initial monthly outlook...

Changes in microbial community structure in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Science.gov (United States)

Amaral-Zettler, Linda A; Rocca, Jennifer D; Lamontagne, Michael G; Dennett, Mark R; Gast, Rebecca J

2008-12-15

Hurricanes have the potential to alter the structures of coastal ecosystems and generate pathogen-laden floodwaters thatthreaten public health. To examine the impact of hurricanes on urban systems, we compared microbial community structures in samples collected after Hurricane Katrina and before and after Hurricane Rita. We extracted environmental DNA and sequenced small-subunit rRNA (SSU rRNA) gene clone libraries to survey microbial communities in floodwater, water, and sediment samples collected from Lake Charles, Lake Pontchartrain, the 17th Street and Industrial Canals in New Orleans, and raw sewage. Correspondence analysis showed that microbial communities associated with sediments formed one cluster while communities associated with lake and Industrial Canal water formed a second. Communities associated with water from the 17th Street Canal and floodwaters collected in New Orleans showed similarity to communities in raw sewage and contained a number of sequences associated with possible pathogenic microbes. This suggests that a distinct microbial community developed in floodwaters following Hurricane Katrina and that microbial community structures as a whole might be sensitive indicators of ecosystem health and serve as "sentinels" of water quality in the environment.

Rebuilding Emergency Care After Hurricane Sandy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, David C; Smith, Silas W; McStay, Christopher M; Portelli, Ian; Goldfrank, Lewis R; Husk, Gregg; Shah, Nirav R

2014-04-09

A freestanding, 911-receiving emergency department was implemented at Bellevue Hospital Center during the recovery efforts after Hurricane Sandy to compensate for the increased volume experienced at nearby hospitals. Because inpatient services at several hospitals remained closed for months, emergency volume increased significantly. Thus, in collaboration with the New York State Department of Health and other partners, the Health and Hospitals Corporation and Bellevue Hospital Center opened a freestanding emergency department without on-site inpatient care. The successful operation of this facility hinged on key partnerships with emergency medical services and nearby hospitals. Also essential was the establishment of an emergency critical care ward and a system to monitor emergency department utilization at affected hospitals. The results of this experience, we believe, can provide a model for future efforts to rebuild emergency care capacity after a natural disaster such as Hurricane Sandy. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;0:1-4).

Gusts and shear within hurricane eyewalls can exceed offshore wind turbine design standards

Science.gov (United States)

Worsnop, Rochelle P.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Bryan, George H.; Damiani, Rick; Musial, Walt

2017-06-01

Offshore wind energy development is underway in the U.S., with proposed sites located in hurricane-prone regions. Turbine design criteria outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission do not encompass the extreme wind speeds and directional shifts of hurricanes stronger than category 2. We examine a hurricane's turbulent eyewall using large-eddy simulations with Cloud Model 1. Gusts and mean wind speeds near the eyewall of a category 5 hurricane exceed the current Class I turbine design threshold of 50 m s-1 mean wind and 70 m s-1 gusts. Largest gust factors occur at the eye-eyewall interface. Further, shifts in wind direction suggest that turbines must rotate or yaw faster than current practice. Although current design standards omit mention of wind direction change across the rotor layer, large values (15-50°) suggest that veer should be considered.

Digital inventory of landslides and related deposits in Honduras triggered by Hurricane Mitch

Science.gov (United States)

Harp, Edwin L.; Hagaman, Kirk W.; Held, Matthew D.; McKenna, Jonathan P.

2002-01-01

Intense rainfall from Hurricane Mitch from October 27-31, 1998, exceeded 900 mm in places in Honduras and triggered in excess of 500,000 landslides throughout the country. Landslides damaged an estimated 70% of the road network in Honduras based on estimates by the U. S Army Corps of Engineers. Numbers of fatalities due to landslides are not accurately known due to the fact that numerous small villages throughout Honduras lost residents to landslides without an official count being recorded. A conservative estimate would place the number at near 1,000. Debris flows accounted for over 95% of the landslides and ranged in thickness from 1 to 15 m. Flow path lengths of these failures ranged from several meters to 7.5 km. The highest concentrations of debris flows occurred in the mountains near the town of Choluteca where over 900 mm of rain fell in three days. Although landslides other than debris flows were few, several deep-seated landslides in the city of Tegucigalpa severely impacted people and property. The 'El Berrinche' rotational slump/earth flow of approximately six million cubic meters volume destroyed the entire neighborhood of Colonia Soto near the center of the city. The landslide also dammed the Rio Choluteca and created a lagoon behind the landslide dam, which immediately posed a health problem for the city, because raw, untreated sewage was emptying into the Rio Choluteca. Several areas of highly concentrated landslides have been responsible for much of the flooding problem as well. Huge sediment influxes from landslide source areas near La Ceiba, La Libertad, Marale, and in several arms of El Cajon Reservoir have reduced stream capacities to practically nothing and have exacerbated flooding conditions in even the moderate rainfall seasons since Hurricane Mitch. The ongoing hazard to communities from landslides triggered during Hurricane Mitch are being analyzed using aerial photography taken by the U.S. Air Force and by supplemental photography taken

Brief communication "Hurricane Irene: a wake-up call for New York City?"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. C. J. H. Aerts

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The weakening of Irene from a Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm resulted in less damage in New York City (NYC than initially was anticipated. It is widely recognized that the storm surge and associated flooding could have been much more severe. In a recent study, we showed that a direct hit to the city from a hurricane may expose an enormous number of people to flooding. A major hurricane has the potential to cause large-scale damage in NYC. The city's resilience to flooding can be increased by improving and integrating flood insurance, flood zoning, and building code policies.

Predicting Mothers' Reports of Children's Mental Health Three Years after Hurricane Katrina

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, Sarah R.; Godoy, Leandra; Rhodes, Jean E.; Carter, Alice S.

2013-01-01

This study explored pathways through which hurricane-related stressors affected the psychological functioning of elementary school aged children who survived Hurricane Katrina. Participants included 184 mothers from the New Orleans area who completed assessments one year pre-disaster (Time 1), and one and three years post-disaster (Time 2 and Time…

Landslides triggered by Hurricane Hugo in eastern Puerto Rico, September 1989

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Matthew C.; Torres-Sanchez, Angel J.

1992-01-01

On the morning of September 18, 1989, a category-four hurricane struck eastern Puerto Rico with a sustained wind speed in excess of 46 m/s. The 24-h rainfall accumulation from the hurricane ranged from 100 to 339 mm. Average rainfall intensities ranging from 34 to 39 mm/h were calculated for 4 and 6 h periods, respectively, at a rain gage equipped with satellite telemetry, and at an observer station. The hurricane rainfall triggered more than 400 landslides in the steeply sloping, highly dissected mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. Of these landslides, 285 were mapped from aerial photography which covered 6474 ha. Many of the mapped landslides were on northeast- and northwest-facing slopes at the eastern terminus of the mountains, nearest the hurricane path. The surface area of individual landslides ranged from 18 m2 to 4500 m2, with a median size of 148 m2. The 285 landslides disturbed 0.11% of the land surface in the area covered by aerial photographs. An approximate denudation rate of 164 mm/1000 y was calculated from the volume of material eroded by landsliding and the 10-y rainfall recurrence interval.

Oil spills and other issues in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita : an overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, D.W.

2006-01-01

The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina revealed weaknesses in the command, control, communications, and information dissemination functions within a variety of emergency response systems. This paper gave an outline of clean-up procedures involving hazardous materials. To date, clean-up crews have disposed of 8.0 million tonnes of an estimated 22.0 million tonnes of debris. The clean-up involved more than 1.3 million containerized hazardous materials; more than 230,000 damaged white goods; and nearly 43,000 damaged electronic goods. More than 3,400 samples of water, soil and air have been collected. Nearly 75 chemistry laboratories in schools have been inspected, and an additional 1500 emergency assessments of potential chemical releases were investigated. The floodwaters carried nearly 4.1 million litres of oil from a Chalmette refinery. Between September and the end of 2005, the Louisiana Oil Spill Coordinator's Office logged in 81 spill events in southwest Louisiana involving 22,000 bbls of crude. Six major, 3 medium and 131 minor events have occurred in southeast Louisiana. More than 3000 offshore platforms were shut down or damaged during the 2005 hurricane season. At least 115 platforms were destroyed and 52 were damaged. Onshore spills of concern included incidents at Murphy Oil Refinery; Bass Enterprise Production Company; Chevron at Port Fourchon; Venice Energy Services Company; Shell Pipeline; and Sundown Energy. It was concluded work done by the spill community will result in the development of more effective response plans. 23 refs

Oil spills and other issues in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita : an overview

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davis, D.W. [Lousiana Applied and Educational Research and Development Program, Baton Rouge, LA (United States)

2006-07-01

The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina revealed weaknesses in the command, control, communications, and information dissemination functions within a variety of emergency response systems. This paper gave an outline of clean-up procedures involving hazardous materials. To date, clean-up crews have disposed of 8.0 million tonnes of an estimated 22.0 million tonnes of debris. The clean-up involved more than 1.3 million containerized hazardous materials; more than 230,000 damaged white goods; and nearly 43,000 damaged electronic goods. More than 3,400 samples of water, soil and air have been collected. Nearly 75 chemistry laboratories in schools have been inspected, and an additional 1500 emergency assessments of potential chemical releases were investigated. The floodwaters carried nearly 4.1 million litres of oil from a Chalmette refinery. Between September and the end of 2005, the Louisiana Oil Spill Coordinator's Office logged in 81 spill events in southwest Louisiana involving 22,000 bbls of crude. Six major, 3 medium and 131 minor events have occurred in southeast Louisiana. More than 3000 offshore platforms were shut down or damaged during the 2005 hurricane season. At least 115 platforms were destroyed and 52 were damaged. Onshore spills of concern included incidents at Murphy Oil Refinery; Bass Enterprise Production Company; Chevron at Port Fourchon; Venice Energy Services Company; Shell Pipeline; and Sundown Energy. It was concluded work done by the spill community will result in the development of more effective response plans. 23 refs.

From the incident command center oil spills from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guidry, R.J. [Lousiana Oil Spill Coordinator' s Office, Baton Rouge, LA (United States)

2006-07-01

Approximately 30.2 million litres of oil were discharged during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. A total of 230 incidents were reported to the state's spill response community, including ruptured pipelines, damaged and moved storage tanks, refineries, and sunken vessels. By January 2006, industry had reported the recovery of 14.7 million litres of oil. After Hurricane Rita, a further 234 off- and onshore incidents were reported. This paper presented a chronology from August 26 2005 through to June 2006 of clean-up activities for both hurricanes, with specific reference to logistic and communications issues associated with working in environments that are difficult to access due to damaged transportation infrastructure. An outline of the Louisiana Oil Spill Coordinator's Office's role in the incidents was presented, as well as an overview of the Louisiana State Contingency Plan. It was noted that the lack of communications systems caused considerable difficulties for responders. It was concluded that responses to hurricanes can be made more effective by having all response communities incident command structure (ICS)-trained with a thorough knowledge of the National Response Plan as it relates to the National Contingency Plan. Ensuring that plans are operational, having clear lines of authority on all hurricane-related issues, and having a robust communications plan were recommended, as well as the ability to respond without communications.

From the incident command center oil spills from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guidry, R.J.

2006-01-01

Approximately 30.2 million litres of oil were discharged during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. A total of 230 incidents were reported to the state's spill response community, including ruptured pipelines, damaged and moved storage tanks, refineries, and sunken vessels. By January 2006, industry had reported the recovery of 14.7 million litres of oil. After Hurricane Rita, a further 234 off- and onshore incidents were reported. This paper presented a chronology from August 26 2005 through to June 2006 of clean-up activities for both hurricanes, with specific reference to logistic and communications issues associated with working in environments that are difficult to access due to damaged transportation infrastructure. An outline of the Louisiana Oil Spill Coordinator's Office's role in the incidents was presented, as well as an overview of the Louisiana State Contingency Plan. It was noted that the lack of communications systems caused considerable difficulties for responders. It was concluded that responses to hurricanes can be made more effective by having all response communities incident command structure (ICS)-trained with a thorough knowledge of the National Response Plan as it relates to the National Contingency Plan. Ensuring that plans are operational, having clear lines of authority on all hurricane-related issues, and having a robust communications plan were recommended, as well as the ability to respond without communications

World economic outlook for the 1990S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Temple, O.J. du; Webster, L.

1989-01-01

This work is related to the world economic outlook for the 1990S. It is discussed here: the new global economy, financial relations, output and income trades in industrial countries structure of imports and exports of developing countries, international policy issues, exchange rates, debt crisis, international trade and international economic environment. (A.C.A.S.)

The impact of Saharan Dust on the genesis and evolution of Hurricane Earl (2010)

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, B.; Wang, Y.; Hsieh, J. S.; Lin, Y.; Hu, J.; Zhang, R.

2017-12-01

Dust, one of the most abundant natural aerosols, can exert substantial radiative and microphysical effects on the regional climate and has potential impacts on the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). A Weather Research and Forecasting Model and the Regional Oceanic Modeling System coupled model (WRF-ROMS) is used to simulate the evolution of Hurricane Earl (2010), of which Earl was interfered by Saharan dust at the TC genesis stage. A new dust module has been implemented to the TAMU two-moment microphysics scheme in the WRF model. It accounts for both dust as Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) and Ice Nuclei (IN). The hurricane track, intensity and precipitation have been compared to the best track data and TRMM precipitation, respectively. The influences of Saharan dust on Hurricane Earl are investigated with dust-CCN, dust-IN, and dust-free scenarios. The analysis shows that Saharan dust changes the latent heat and moisture distribution, invigorates the convections in the hurricane's eyewall, and suppresses the development of Earl. This finding addresses the importance of accounting dust microphysics effect on hurricane predictions.

Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Inundation for Categories 2 and 4

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The file geodatabase (fgdb) contains the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Maximum of Maximums (MOM) model for hurricane categories 2 and 4. The...

World Copper Market Outlook: 2003-2014

OpenAIRE

Florela Stoian

2015-01-01

This paper presents synthetically the copper market outlook (demand, supply, and prices) during 2003-2014, highlighting the impact of economic crisis of 2008-2009 on the world copper market. During the crisis, the decline in demand caused increases in excess supply of metal, as the supply has followed an upward trend, contributing to the imbalances of the copper market and putting pressure on stock prices at LME London Metal Exchange.

How Disasters Affect Local Labor Markets: The Effects of Hurricanes in Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Belasen, Ariel R.; Polachek, Solomon W.

2009-01-01

This study improves upon the Difference in Difference approach by examining exogenous shocks using a Generalized Difference in Difference (GDD) technique that identifies economic effects of hurricanes. Based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, worker earnings in Florida counties hit by a hurricane increase up to 4 percent,…

Hurricanes, Coral Reefs and Rainforests: Resistance, Ruin and Recovery in the Caribbean

Science.gov (United States)

A. E. Lugo; C. S. Rogers; S. W Nixon

2000-01-01

The coexistence of hurricanes, coral reefs, and rainforests in the Caribbean demonstrates that highly structured ecosystems with great diversity can flourish in spite of recurring exposure to intense destructive energy. Coral reefs develop in response to wave energy and resist hurricanes largely by virtue of their structural strength. Limited fetch also protects some...

Just-in-Time Training: The Lessons of Hurricane Katrina, 10 Years Later

Science.gov (United States)

Boerner, Heather

2016-01-01

Hurricane Katrina reshaped college workforce development programs as thoroughly as it did the coastline--but in this case, the changes were for the good of students, employers and the community. This article discusses the effects and changes made by 4 community colleges who were effected by Hurricane Katrina: (1) Louisiana Community and Technical…

The impact of Hurricane Sandy on the mental health of New York area residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Rebecca M; Sison, Cristina; Kerath, Samantha M; Murphy, Lisa; Breil, Trista; Sikavi, Daniel; Taioli, Emanuela

2015-01-01

To evaluate the long-term psychological impact of Hurricane Sandy on New York residents. Prospective, cross-sectional study. Community-based study. From October 2013 to February 2015, 669 adults in Long Island, Queens, and Staten Island completed a survey on their behavioral and psychological health, demographics, and hurricane impact (ie, exposure). Depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Using multivariable logistic regression models, the relationships between Hurricane Sandy exposure and depression, anxiety, and PTSD were examined. Participants experienced an average of 3.9 exposures to Hurricane Sandy, most of which were related to property damage/loss. Probable depression was reported in 33.4 percent of participants, probable anxiety in 46 percent, and probable PTSD in 21.1 percent. Increased exposure to Hurricane Sandy was significantly associated with a greater likelihood of depression (odds ratio [OR] = 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.14), anxiety (OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03-1.13), and probable PTSD (OR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.23-1.40), even after controlling for demographic factors known to increase susceptibility to mental health issues. Individuals affected by Hurricane Sandy reported high levels of mental health issues and were at an increased risk of depression, anxiety, and PTSD in the years following the storm. Recovery and prevention efforts should focus on mental health issues in affected populations.

Monitoring storm tide and flooding from Hurricane Matthew along the Atlantic coast of the United States, October 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Frantz, Eric R.; Byrne,, Michael L.; Caldwell, Andral W.; Harden, Stephen L.

2017-11-02

IntroductionHurricane Matthew moved adjacent to the coasts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The hurricane made landfall once near McClellanville, South Carolina, on October 8, 2016, as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of storm-tide sensors at 284 sites along the Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of hurricane storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Matthew. Storm tide, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is the water-level rise generated by a combination of storm surge and astronomical tide during a coastal storm.The deployment for Hurricane Matthew was the largest deployment of storm-tide sensors in USGS history and was completed as part of a coordinated Federal emergency response as outlined by the Stafford Act (Public Law 92–288, 42 U.S.C. 5121–5207) under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. In total, 543 high-water marks (HWMs) also were collected after Hurricane Matthew, and this was the second largest HWM recovery effort in USGS history after Hurricane Sandy in 2012.During the hurricane, real-time water-level data collected at temporary rapid deployment gages (RDGs) and long-term USGS streamgage stations were relayed immediately for display on the USGS Flood Event Viewer (https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/FEV/#MatthewOctober2016). These data provided emergency managers and responders with critical information for tracking flood-effected areas and directing assistance to effected communities. Data collected from this hurricane can be used to calibrate and evaluate the performance of storm-tide models for maximum and incremental water level and flood extent, and the site-specific effects of storm tide on natural and anthropogenic features of the environment.

The Role of Porosity in the Formation of Coastal Boulder Deposits - Hurricane Versus Tsunami

Science.gov (United States)

Spiske, M.; Boeroecz, Z.; Bahlburg, H.

2007-12-01

Coastal boulder deposits are a consequence of high-energy wave impacts, such as storms, hurricanes or tsunami. Distinguishing parameters between storm, hurricane and tsunami origin are distance of a deposit from the coast, boulder weight and inferred wave height. Formulas to calculate minimum wave heights of both storm and tsunami waves depend on accurate determination of boulder dimensions and lithology from the respective deposits. At present however, boulder porosity appears to be commonly neglected, leading to significant errors in determined bulk density, especially when boulders consist of reef or coral limestone. This limits precise calculations of wave heights and hampers a clear distinction between storm, hurricane and tsunami origin. Our study uses Archimedean and optical 3D-profilometry measurements for the determination of porosities and bulk densities of reef and coral limestone boulders from the islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao (ABC Islands, Netherlands Antilles). Due to the high porosities (up to 68 %) of the enclosed coral species, the weights of the reef rock boulders are as low as 20 % of previously calculated values. Hence minimum calculated heights both for tsunami and hurricane waves are smaller than previously proposed. We show that hurricane action appears to be the likely depositional mechanism for boulders on the ABC Islands, since 1) our calculations result in tsunami wave heights which do not permit the overtopping of coastal platforms on the ABC Islands, 2) boulder fields lie on the windward (eastern) sides of the islands, 3) recent hurricanes transported boulders up to 35 m3 and 4) the scarcity of tsunami events affecting the coasts of the ABC Islands compared to frequent impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

Science.gov (United States)

Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

2011-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

The 2008-18 Job Outlook in Brief

Science.gov (United States)

Occupational Outlook Quarterly, 2010

2010-01-01

Some occupations will fare better than others over the 2008-18 decade. Although it's impossible to predict the future, one can gain insight into job outlook by analyzing trends in population growth, technological advances, and business practices. This insight is helpful in planning a career. Every 2 years, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)…

Investigation of long-term hurricane activity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nguyen, B.M.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a new approach of applying numerical methods to model storm processes. A storm empirical track technique is utilized to simulate the full tracks of hurricanes, starting with their initial points over the sea and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations. The

Hurricane-induced Sediment Transport and Morphological Change in Jamaica Bay, New York

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, K.; Chen, Q. J.

2016-02-01

Jamaica Bay is located in Brooklyn and Queens, New York on the western end of the south shore of the Long Island land mass. It experienced a conversion of more than 60% of the vegetated salt-marsh islands to intertidal and subtidal mudflats. Hurricanes and nor'easters are among the important driving forces that reshape coastal landscape quickly and affect wetland sustainability. Wetland protection and restoration need a better understanding of hydrodynamics and sediment transport in this area, especially under extreme weather conditions. Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall along east coast on October 30, 2012, provides a critical opportunity for studying the impacts of hurricanes on sedimentation, erosion and morphological changes in Jamaica Bay and salt marsh islands. The Delft3D model suit was applied to model hydrodynamics and sediment transport in Jamaica Bay and salt marsh islands. Three domains were set up for nesting computation. The local domain covering the bay and salt marshes has a resolution of 10 m. The wave module was online coupled with the flow module. Vegetation effects were considered as a large number of rigid cylinders by a sub-module in Delft3D. Parameters in sediment transport and morphological change were carefully chosen and calibrated. Prior- and post-Sandy Surface Elevation Table (SET)/accretion data including mark horizon (short-term) and 137Cs and 210Pb (long-term) at salt marsh islands in Jamaica Bay were used for model validation. Model results indicate that waves played an important role in hurricane-induced morphological change in Jamaica Bay and wetlands. In addition, numerical experiments were carried out to investigate the impacts of hypothetic hurricanes. This study has been supported by the U.S. Geological Survey Hurricane Sandy Disaster Recovery Act Funds.

Non-arborescent vegetation trajectories following repeated hurricane disturbance: ephemeral versus enduring responses

Science.gov (United States)

Alejandro A. Royo; Tamara Heartsill-Scalley; Samuel Moya; Fred N. Scatena

2011-01-01

Hurricanes strongly influence short-term patterns of plant community structure, composition, and abundance and are a major contributor to the maintenance of plant diversity in many forests. Although much research has focused on the immediate and long-term effects of hurricane disturbance on tree diversity, far less attention has been devoted to the non-arborescent...

Initial estimates of hurricane Katrina impacts of Mississippi gulf coast forest resources

Science.gov (United States)

Patrick A. Glass; Sonja N. Oswalt

2007-01-01

Hurricane Katrina pummeled the Gulf Coast of Mississippi on August 29, 2005. The eye wall of the storm passed directly over Hancock and Pearl River Counties. Harrison, Jackson, Stone, and George Counties on the windward side of the hurricane's path sustained severe damage before the storm's strength dissipated as it moved farther inland (fig. 1).

Hurricane Ike: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

Science.gov (United States)

Doran, Kara S.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Serafin, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with the storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, and wave climate. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and large waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to those processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is equally important to the coastal change observed during extreme storm events. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes), strives to provide hazard information to those interested in the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure coastal changes associated with Hurricane Ike, which made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on September 13, 2008. Methods of observation included aerial photography and airborne topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline

Modeling hurricane effects on mangrove ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, Thomas W.

1997-01-01

Mangrove ecosystems are at their most northern limit along the coastline of Florida and in isolated areas of the gulf coast in Louisiana and Texas. Mangroves are marine-based forests that have adapted to colonize and persist in salty intertidal waters. Three species of mangrove trees are common to the United States, black mangrove (Avicennia germinans), white mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa), and red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle). Mangroves are highly productive ecosystems and provide valuable habitat for fisheries and shorebirds. They are susceptible to lightning and hurricane disturbance, both of which occur frequently in south Florida. Climate change studies predict that, while these storms may not become more frequent, they may become more intense with warming sea temperatures. Sea-level rise alone has the potential for increasing the severity of storm surge, particularly in areas where coastal habitats and barrier shorelines are rapidly deteriorating. Given this possibility, U.S. Geological Survey researchers modeled the impact of hurricanes on south Florida mangrove communities.

Hurricanes, coral reefs and rainforests: resistance, ruin and recovery in the Caribbean

Science.gov (United States)

Lugo, Ariel E.; Rogers, Caroline S.; Nixon, Scott W.

2000-01-01

The coexistence of hurricanes, coral reefs, and rainforests in the Caribbean demonstrates that highly structured ecosystems with great diversity can flourish in spite of recurring exposure to intense destructive energy. Coral reefs develop in response to wave energy and resist hurricanes largely by virtue of their structural strength. Limited fetch also protects some reefs from fully developed hurricane waves. While storms may produce dramatic local reef damage, they appear to have little impact on the ability of coral reefs to provide food or habitat for fish and other animals. Rainforests experience an enormous increase in wind energy during hurricanes with dramatic structural changes in the vegetation. The resulting changes in forest microclimate are larger than those on reefs and the loss of fruit, leaves, cover, and microclimate has a great impact on animal populations. Recovery of many aspects of rainforest structure and function is rapid, though there may be long-term changes in species composition. While resistance and repair have maintained reefs and rainforests in the past, human impacts may threaten their ability to survive.

Post-Hurricane Successional Dynamics in Abundance and Diversity of Canopy Arthropods in a Tropical Rainforest.

Science.gov (United States)

Schowalter, T D; Willig, M R; Presley, S J

2017-02-01

We quantified long-term successional trajectories of canopy arthropods on six tree species in a tropical rainforest ecosystem in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico that experienced repeated hurricane-induced disturbances during the 19-yr study (1991-2009). We expected: 1) differential performances of arthropod species to result in taxon- or guild-specific responses; 2) differences in initial conditions to result in distinct successional responses to each hurricane; and 3) the legacy of hurricane-created gaps to persist despite subsequent disturbances. At least one significant effect of gap, time after hurricane, or their interaction occurred for 53 of 116 analyses of taxon abundance, 31 of 84 analyses of guild abundance, and 21 of 60 analyses of biodiversity (e.g., richness, evenness, dominance, and rarity). Significant responses were ∼60% more common for time after hurricane than for gap creation, indicating that temporal changes in habitat during recovery were of primary importance. Both increases and decreases in abundance or diversity occurred in response to each factor. Guild-level responses were probably driven by changes in the abundance of resources on which they rely. For example, detritivores were most abundant soon after hurricanes when litter resources were elevated, whereas sap-suckers were most abundant in gaps where new foliage growth was the greatest. The legacy of canopy gaps created by Hurricane Hugo persisted for at least 19 yr, despite droughts and other hurricanes of various intensities that caused forest damage. This reinforces the need to consider historical legacies when seeking to understand responses to disturbance. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Petroleum industry assists hurricane relief

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that the petroleum industry is aiding victims of last month's Hurricane Andrew with cash, clothing, food, water, and other supplies. Cash contributions announced as of last week totaled more than $2.7 million for distribution in South Florida and South Louisiana. Petroleum industry employees were collecting relief items such as bottled water and diapers for distribution in those areas

GRIP HURRICANE IMAGING RADIOMETER (HIRAD) V1

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The GRIP Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) V1 dataset contains measurements of brightness temperature taken at 4, 5, 6 and 6.6 GHz, as well as MERRA 2 m wind...

Using Large-Eddy Simulations to Define Spectral and Coherence Characteristics of the Hurricane Boundary Layer for Wind-Energy Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Worsnop, Rochelle P.; Bryan, George H.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Zhang, Jun A.

2017-10-01

Offshore wind-energy development is planned for regions where hurricanes commonly occur, such as the USA Atlantic Coast. Even the most robust wind-turbine design (IEC Class I) may be unable to withstand a Category-2 hurricane (hub-height wind speeds >50 m s^{-1}). Characteristics of the hurricane boundary layer that affect the structural integrity of turbines, especially in major hurricanes, are poorly understood, primarily due to a lack of adequate observations that span typical turbine heights (wind profiles of an idealized Category-5 hurricane at high spatial (10 m) and temporal (0.1 s) resolution. By comparison with unique flight-level observations from a field project, we find that a relatively simple configuration of the Cloud Model I model accurately represents the properties of Hurricane Isabel (2003) in terms of mean wind speeds, wind-speed variances, and power spectra. Comparisons of power spectra and coherence curves derived from our hurricane simulations to those used in current turbine design standards suggest that adjustments to these standards may be needed to capture characteristics of turbulence seen within the simulated hurricane boundary layer. To enable improved design standards for wind turbines to withstand hurricanes, we suggest modifications to account for shifts in peak power to higher frequencies and greater spectral coherence at large separations.

2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Nordic Schools A Horizon Project Regional Report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2017-01-01

research effort between the New Media Consortium (NMC) and the Norwegian Centre for ICT in Education to inform Nordic school leaders and decision-makers about significant developments in technologies supporting teaching, learning, and creative inquiry in primary and secondary education across Denmark......Adams Becker, S., Cummins, M., Freeman, A., and Rose, K. (2017). 2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Nordic Schools: A Horizon Project Regional Report. Austin, Texas: The New Media Consortium. The 2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Nordic Schools: A Horizon Project Regional Report reflects a collaborative...

The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-01

growth over a number of years or requiring massive additional federal spending, or both. For exam- ple, the country could experience more-frequent severe...floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, and fires—as some models of climate change predict—or a single massive earth- quake, a nuclear meltdown that rendered...cumulative amount of surpluses remaining after paying down publicly held debt available for redemption . Debt does not reflect economic effects of the

Wind and waves in extreme hurricanes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Holthuijsen, L.H.; Powell, M.D.; Pietrzak, J.D.

2012-01-01

Waves breaking at the ocean surface are important to the dynamical, chemical and biological processes at the air-sea interface. The traditional view is that the white capping and aero-dynamical surface roughness increase with wind speed up to a limiting value. This view is fundamental to hurricane

Evacuating the Area of a Hurricane

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2006-08-10

If a hurricane warning is issued for your area, or authorities tell you to evacuate, take only essential items. If you have time, turn off gas, electricity, and water and disconnect appliances.  Created: 8/10/2006 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 10/10/2007.

Nuclear power: status and outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.H.; Langlois, L.M.; McDonald, A.

2002-01-01

Current state of the world nuclear energetics is reviewed; data on operating and nuclear power blocks under construction in different countries, data on electric power output, practice of operation are presented. New plans of energetic reactors, capitalized costs for their construction, operating cost and period of construction are treated. Problems of nuclear safety, spent fuel and radioactive waste management, non-proliferation policy are discussed. Outlook for the development of the nuclear energetics is directed and importance of the Bonn agreement in connection with economic reasons for NPP operation is noted [ru

Dissolved and colloidal trace elements in the Mississippi River Delta outflow after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Shim, Moo-Joon; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Shiller, Alan M.

2012-01-01

The Mississippi River delta outflow region is periodically disturbed by tropical weather systems including major hurricanes, which can terminate seasonal bottom water hypoxia and cause the resuspension of shelf bottom sediments which could result in the injection of trace elements into the water column. In the summer of 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita passed over the Louisiana Shelf within a month of each other. Three weeks after Rita, we collected water samples in the Mississippi River delta outflow, examining the distributions of trace elements to study the effect of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. We observed limited stratification on the shelf and bottom waters that were no longer hypoxic. This resulted, for instance, in bottom water dissolved Mn being lower than is typically observed during hypoxia, but with concentrations still compatible with Mn–O2 trends previously reported. Interestingly, for no element were we able to identify an obvious effect of sediment resuspension on its distribution. In general, elemental distributions were compatible with previous observations in the Mississippi outflow system. Co and Re, which have not been reported for this system previously, showed behavior consistent with other systems: input for Co likely from desorption and conservative mixing for Re. For Cs, an element for which there is little information regarding its estuarine behavior, conservative mixing was also observed. Our filtration method, which allowed us to distinguish the dissolved (<0.02 μm) from colloidal (0.02–0.45 μm) phase, revealed significant colloidal fractions for Fe and Zn, only. For Fe, the colloidal phase was the dominant fraction and was rapidly removed at low salinity. Dissolved Fe, in contrast, persisted out to mid-salinities, being removed in a similar fashion to nitrate. This ability to distinguish the smaller Fe (likely dominantly organically complexed) from larger colloidal suspensates may be useful in better interpreting the

Hurricane & Tropical Storm Impacts over the South Florida Metropolitan Area: Mortality & Government

Science.gov (United States)

Colon Pagan, I. C.

2007-12-01

Since 1985, the South Florida Metropolitan area (SFMA), which covers the counties of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, has been directly affected by 9 tropical cyclones: four tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. This continuous hurricane and tropical storm activity has awakened the conscience of the communities, government, and private sector, about the social vulnerability, in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, and others. Several factors have also been significant enough to affect the vulnerability of the South Florida Metropolitan area, like its geographic location which is at the western part of the Atlantic hurricane track, with a surface area of 6,137 square miles, and elevation of 15 feet. And second, from the 2006 Census estimate, this metropolitan area is the 7th most populous area in the United States supporting almost 1,571 individuals per square mile. Mortality levels due to hurricanes and tropical storms have fluctuated over the last 21 years without any signal of a complete reduction, a phenomenon that can be related to both physical characteristics of the storms and government actions. The average annual death count remains almost the same from 4.10 between 1985 and 1995 to 4 from 1996 to 2006. However, the probability of occurrence of a direct impact of an atmospheric disturbance has increase from 0.3 to 0.6, with an average of three hurricane or tropical storm direct impacts for every five. This analysis suggests an increasing problem with regard to atmospheric disturbances-related deaths in the South Florida Metropolitan area. In other words, despite substantial increases in population during the last 21 years, the number of tropical cyclone-related deaths is not declining; it's just being segregated among more storms. Gaps between each impact can be related to mortality levels. When that time increases in five years or more, such as Bob and Andrew or Irene and Katrina, or decreases in weeks or months, such as Harvey and Irene or Katrina and Wilma

JLAB Hurricane recovery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A. Hutton; D. Arenius; J. Benesch; S. Chattopadhyay; E. F. Daly; O. Garza; R. Kazimi; R. Lauzi; L. Merminga; W. Merz; R. Nelson; W. Oren; M. Poelker; P. Powers; J. Preble; V. Ganni; C. R. Reece; R. Rimmer; M. Spata; S. Suhring

2004-01-01

Hurricane Isabel, originally a Category 5 storm, arrived at Jefferson Lab on September 18, 2003 with winds of only 75 mph, creating little direct damage to the infrastructure. However, electric power was lost for four days allowing the superconducting cryomodules to warm up and causing a total loss of the liquid helium. The subsequent recovery of the cryomodules and the impact of the considerable amount of opportunistic preventive maintenance provides important lessons for all accelerator complexes, not only those with superconducting elements. The details of how the recovery process was structured and the resulting improvement in accelerator availability will be discussed in detail

Hurricane Isaac: observations and analysis of coastal change

Science.gov (United States)

Guy, Kristy K.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara S.; Morgan, Karen L.M.

2013-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical process of interest is sediment transport that is driven by waves, currents, and storm surge associated with storms. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to impact parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology reflects the coastal changes associated with extreme-storm processes. Relevant geomorphic variables that are observable before and after storms include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to quantify coastal change and are used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms (Stockdon and others, 2007). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH) project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/national-assessment/) provides hazard information to those concerned about the Nation’s coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. Extreme-storm research is a component of the NACCH project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/) that includes development of predictive understanding, vulnerability assessments using models, and updated observations in response to specific storm events. In particular, observations were made to determine morphological changes associated with Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in the United States first at Southwest Pass, at the mouth of the Mississippi River, at 0000 August 29, 2012 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) and again, 8 hours later, west of Port Fourchon, Louisiana (Berg, 2013). Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography

Forecasting Hurricane Tracks Using a Complex Adaptive System

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lear, Matthew R

2005-01-01

Forecast hurricane tracks using a multi-model ensemble that consists of linearly combining the individual model forecasts have greatly reduced the average forecast errors when compared to individual...

Use of outpatient mental health services by homeless veterans after hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Lisa M; Barnett, Scott; Hickling, Edward; Frahm, Kathryn; Campbell, Robert R; Olney, Ronald; Schinka, John A; Casey, Roger

2013-05-01

Little is known about the impact of hurricanes on people who are homeless at the time a disaster occurs. Although researchers have extensively studied the psychosocial consequences of disaster produced homelessness on the general population, efforts focused on understanding how homeless people fare have been limited to a few media reports and the gray literature. In the event of a hurricane, homeless veterans may be at increased risk for negative outcomes because of their cumulative vulnerabilities. Health care statistics consistently document that homeless veterans experience higher rates of medical, emotional, substance abuse, legal, and financial problems compared with the general population. This study used the 2004 to 2006 Veterans Health Administration (VHA) Outpatient Medical Dataset to examine the effects of hurricanes on use of outpatient mental health services by homeless veterans. Homeless veterans residing in hurricane-affected counties were significantly more likely to participate in group psychotherapy (32.4% vs. 13.4%, p < .002), but less likely to participate in individual 30-40-min sessions with medical evaluations (3.5% vs. 17.3%, p < .001). The study findings have implications for homeless programs and the provision of VHA mental health services to homeless veterans postdisaster. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Inundation for Categories 2 and 4

Science.gov (United States)

The file geodatabase (fgdb) contains the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Maximum of Maximums (MOM) model for hurricane categories 2 and 4. The EPA Office of Research & Development (ORD) modified the original model from NOAA to fit the model parameters for the Buzzards Bay region. The models show storm surge extent for the Mattapoisett area and therefore the flooding area was reduced to the study area. Areas of flooding that were not connected to the main water body were removed. The files in the geodatabase are:Cat2_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 2 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 4 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR4_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Future Category 4 hurricane with 4 feet sea level riseThe features support the Weather Ready Mattapoisett story map, which can be accessed via the following link:https://epa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=1ff4f1d28a254cb689334799d94b74e2

Hurricane Activity and the Large-Scale Pattern of Spread of an Invasive Plant Species

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattarai, Ganesh P.; Cronin, James T.

2014-01-01

Disturbances are a primary facilitator of the growth and spread of invasive species. However, the effects of large-scale disturbances, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, on the broad geographic patterns of invasive species growth and spread have not been investigated. We used historical aerial imagery to determine the growth rate of invasive Phragmites australis patches in wetlands along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These were relatively undisturbed wetlands where P. australis had room for unrestricted growth. Over the past several decades, invasive P. australis stands expanded in size by 6–35% per year. Based on tropical storm and hurricane activity over that same time period, we found that the frequency of hurricane-force winds explained 81% of the variation in P. australis growth over this broad geographic range. The expansion of P. australis stands was strongly and positively correlated with hurricane frequency. In light of the many climatic models that predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes over the next century, these results suggest a strong link between climate change and species invasion and a challenging future ahead for the management of invasive species. PMID:24878928

Impacts of cloud flare-ups on hurricane intensity resulting from departures from balance laws

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. N. Krishnamurti

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Cloud flare-ups along the inner eye wall of a hurricane lead to enhancement of cloud scale divergence, which in turn leads to a large local enhancement of the departure from balance laws and can lead to local supergradient winds. This scenario is tested using the results from a mesoscale microphysical model at horizontal resolution of 1.33 km for the simulation of hurricane Katrina. Rainwater mixing ratio tags growing cloud elements. The departure from balance laws includes terms such as the local, horizontal and vertical advections of divergence, divergence square and a term invoking the gradient of vertical velocity. It is noted that these terms collectively contribute to a substantial local enhancement of the departure from balance laws. Departures from balance laws are related to the radial gradient wind imbalances in a storm-centred coordinate. In this study, several examples, from the hurricane Katrina simulations, that display this scenario of rapid intensification are illustrated. Organisation of convection in the azimuthal direction seems important for the hurricane scale; cloud flare-ups away from such regions of azimuthal organisation fail to contribute to this scenario for the overall intensification of the hurricane.

Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-10-14

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

Real-Time Tracking of the Extreme Rainfall of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria using UCI CHRS's iRain System

Science.gov (United States)

Shearer, E. J.; Nguyen, P.; Ombadi, M.; Palacios, T.; Huynh, P.; Furman, D.; Tran, H.; Braithwaite, D.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.; Logan, W. S.

2017-12-01

During the 2017 hurricane season, three major hurricanes-Harvey, Irma, and Maria-devastated the Atlantic coast of the US and the Caribbean Islands. Harvey set the record for the rainiest storm in continental US history, Irma was the longest-lived powerful hurricane ever observed, and Maria was the costliest storm in Puerto Rican history. The recorded maximum precipitation totals for these storms were 65, 16, and 20 inches respectively. These events provided the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) an opportunity to test its global real-time satellite precipitation observation system, iRain, for extreme storm events. The iRain system has been under development through a collaboration between CHRS at the University of California, Irvine (UCI) and UNESCO's International Hydrological Program (IHP). iRain provides near real-time high resolution (0.04°, approx. 4km) global (60°N - 60°S) satellite precipitation data estimated by the PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) algorithm developed by the scientists at CHRS. The user-interactive and web-accessible iRain system allows users to visualize and download real-time global satellite precipitation estimates and track the development and path of the current 50 largest storms globally from data generated by the PERSIANN-CCS algorithm. iRain continuously proves to be an effective tool for measuring real-time precipitation amounts of extreme storms-especially in locations that do not have extensive rain gauge or radar coverage. Such areas include large portions of the world's oceans and over continents such as Africa and Asia. CHRS also created a mobile app version of the system named "iRain UCI", available for iOS and Android devices. During these storms, real-time rainfall data generated by PERSIANN-CCS was consistently comparable to radar and rain gauge data. This presentation evaluates iRain's efficiency as a tool for extreme precipitation monitoring and provides an evaluation of the

Modelling dune erosion, overwash and breaching at Fire Island (NY) during hurricane Sandy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Vet, P.L.M.; McCall, R.T.; Den Bieman, J.P.; Stive, M.J.F.; Van Ormondt, M.

2015-01-01

In 2012, Hurricane Sandy caused a breach at Fire Island (NY, USA), near Pelican Island. This paper aims at modelling dune erosion, overwash and breaching processes that occured during the hurricane event at this stretch of coast with the numerical model XBeach. By using the default settings, the

The Future of the Global Environment: A Model-based Analysis Supporting UNEP's First Global Environment Outlook

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakkes JA; Woerden JW van; Alcamo J; Berk MM; Bol P; Born GJ van den; Brink BJE ten; Hettelingh JP; Langeweg F; Niessen LW; Swart RJ; United Nations Environment; MNV

1997-01-01

This report documents the scenario analysis in UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook, published at the same time as the scenario analysis. This Outlook provides a pilot assessment of developments in the environment, both global and regional, between now and 2015, with a further projection to

Risk Perceptions on Hurricanes: Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market.

Science.gov (United States)

Feria-Domínguez, José Manuel; Paneque, Pilar; Gil-Hurtado, María

2017-06-05

This article examines the market reaction of the main Property and Casualty (P & C) insurance companies listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to seven most recent hurricanes that hit the East Coast of the United States from 2005 to 2012. For this purpose, we run a standard short horizon event study in order to test the existence of abnormal returns around the landfalls. P & C companies are one of the most affected sectors by such events because of the huge losses to rebuild, help and compensate the inhabitants of the affected areas. From the financial investors' perception, this kind of events implies severe losses, which could influence the expected returns. Our research highlights the existence of significant cumulative abnormal returns around the landfall event window in most of the hurricanes analyzed, except for the Katrina and Sandy Hurricanes.

The messages of the world energy outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cozzi, L.

2001-01-01

This article provides an overview of the International Energy Agency's 2000 edition of the World Energy Outlook, Global and regional energy demand, supply and CO 2 emissions to the year 2020 are discussed under the Reference Scenario assumption. Main challenges that actors of global energy scene will be asked to cope with in the next two decade are derived [it

Metal concentrations in schoolyard soils from New Orleans, Louisiana before and after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Science.gov (United States)

Presley, Steven M; Abel, Michael T; Austin, Galen P; Rainwater, Thomas R; Brown, Ray W; McDaniel, Les N; Marsland, Eric J; Fornerette, Ashley M; Dillard, Melvin L; Rigdon, Richard W; Kendall, Ronald J; Cobb, George P

2010-06-01

The long-term environmental impact and potential human health hazards resulting from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita throughout much of the United States Gulf Coast, particularly in the New Orleans, Louisiana, USA area are still being assessed and realized after more than four years. Numerous government agencies and private entities have collected environmental samples from throughout New Orleans and found concentrations of contaminants exceeding human health screening values as established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for air, soil, and water. To further assess risks of exposure to toxic concentrations of soil contaminants for citizens, particularly children, returning to live in New Orleans following the storms, soils collected from schoolyards prior to Hurricane Katrina and after Hurricane Rita were screened for 26 metals. Concentrations exceeding USEPA Regional Screening Levels (USEPA-RSL), total exposure, non-cancer endpoints, for residential soils for arsenic (As), iron (Fe), lead (Pb), and thallium (Tl) were detected in soil samples collected from schoolyards both prior to Hurricane Katrina and after Hurricane Rita. Approximately 43% (9/21) of schoolyard soils collected prior to Hurricane Katrina contained Pb concentrations greater than 400mgkg(-1), and samples from four schoolyards collected after Hurricane Rita contained detectable Pb concentrations, with two exceeding 1700mgkg(-1). Thallium concentrations exceeded USEPA-RSL in samples collected from five schoolyards after Hurricane Rita. Based upon these findings and the known increased susceptibility of children to the effects of Pb exposure, a more extensive assessment of the soils in schoolyards, public parks and other residential areas of New Orleans for metal contaminants is warranted. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration of Ground, Buoys, Satellite and Model data to map the Changes in Meteorological Parameters Associated with Harvey Hurricane

Science.gov (United States)

Chauhan, A.; Sarkar, S.; Singh, R. P.

2017-12-01

The coastal areas have dense onshore and marine observation network and are also routinely monitored by constellation of satellites. The monitoring of ocean, land and atmosphere through a range of meteorological parameters, provides information about the land and ocean surface. Satellite data also provide information at different pressure levels that help to access the development of tropical storms and formation of hurricanes at different categories. Integration of ground, buoys, satellite and model data showing the changes in meteorological parameters during the landfall stages of hurricane Harvey will be discussed. Hurricane Harvey was one of the deadliest hurricanes at the Gulf coast which caused intense flooding from the precipitation. The various observation networks helped city administrators to evacuate the coastal areas, that minimized the loss of lives compared to the Galveston hurricane of 1900 which took 10,000 lives. Comparison of meteorological parameters derived from buoys, ground stations and satellites associated with Harvey and 2005 Katrina hurricane present some of the interesting features of the two hurricanes.

Rhode Island Hurricane Evacuation Study Technical Data Report

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

1995-01-01

... evacuation decision-making. To accomplish this, the study provides information on the extent and severity of potential flooding from hurricanes, the associated vulnerable population, capacities of existing public shelters...

Rhode Island Hurricane Evacuation Study Technical Data Report

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

1995-01-01

.... The purpose of the study is to provide the Rhode Island Emergency Management Agency and Rhode Island coastal communities with realistic data quantifying the major factors involved in hurricane...

Hurricane Effects on a Shallow Lake Ecosystem and Its Response to a Controlled Manipulation of Water Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karl E. Havens

2001-01-01

Full Text Available In order to reverse the damage to aquatic plant communities caused by multiple years of high water levels in Lake Okeechobee, Florida (U.S., the Governing Board of the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD authorized a "managed recession" to substantially lower the surface elevation of the lake in spring 2000. The operation was intended to achieve lower water levels for at least 8 weeks during the summer growing season, and was predicted to result in a large-scale recovery of submerged vascular plants. We treated this operation as a whole ecosystem experiment, and assessed ecological responses using data from an existing network of water quality and submerged plant monitoring sites. As a result of large-scale discharges of water from the lake, coupled with losses to evaporation and to water supply deliveries to agriculture and other regional users, the lake surface elevation receded by approximately 1 m between April and June. Water depths in shoreline areas that historically supported submerged plant communities declined from near 1.5 m to below 0.5 m. Low water levels persisted for the entire summer. Despite shallow depths, the initial response (in June 2000 of submerged plants was very limited and water remained highly turbid (due at first to abiotic seston and later to phytoplankton blooms. Turbidity decreased in July and the biomass of plants increased. However, submerged plant biomass did not exceed levels observed during summer 1999 (when water depths were greater until August. Furthermore, a vascular plant-dominated assemblage (Vallisnera, Potamogeton, and Hydrilla that occurred in 1999 was replaced with a community of nearly 98% Chara spp. (a macro-alga in 2000. Hence, the lake’s submerged plant community appeared to revert to an earlier successional stage despite what appeared to be better conditions for growth. To explain this unexpected response, we evaluated the impacts that Hurricane Irene may have had on the lake in the

Hurricane effects on a shallow lake ecosystem and its response to a controlled manipulation of water level.

Science.gov (United States)

Havens, K E; Jin, K R; Rodusky, A J; Sharfstein, B; Brady, M A; East, T L; Iricanin, N; James, R T; Harwell, M C; Steinman, A D

2001-04-04

In order to reverse the damage to aquatic plant communities caused by multiple years of high water levels in Lake Okeechobee, Florida (U.S.), the Governing Board of the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) authorized a "managed recession" to substantially lower the surface elevation of the lake in spring 2000. The operation was intended to achieve lower water levels for at least 8 weeks during the summer growing season, and was predicted to result in a large-scale recovery of submerged vascular plants. We treated this operation as a whole ecosystem experiment, and assessed ecological responses using data from an existing network of water quality and submerged plant monitoring sites. As a result of large-scale discharges of water from the lake, coupled with losses to evaporation and to water supply deliveries to agriculture and other regional users, the lake surface elevation receded by approximately 1 m between April and June. Water depths in shoreline areas that historically supported submerged plant communities declined from near 1.5 m to below 0.5 m. Low water levels persisted for the entire summer. Despite shallow depths, the initial response (in June 2000) of submerged plants was very limited and water remained highly turbid (due at first to abiotic seston and later to phytoplankton blooms). Turbidity decreased in July and the biomass of plants increased. However, submerged plant biomass did not exceed levels observed during summer 1999 (when water depths were greater) until August. Furthermore, a vascular plant-dominated assemblage (Vallisneria, Potamogeton, and Hydrilla) that occurred in 1999 was replaced with a community of nearly 98% Chara spp. (a macro-alga) in 2000. Hence, the lake"s submerged plant community appeared to revert to an earlier successional stage despite what appeared to be better conditions for growth. To explain this unexpected response, we evaluated the impacts that Hurricane Irene may have had on the lake in the previous

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall

OpenAIRE

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-01-01

Significance Natural disasters such as the recent Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria highlight the need for quantitative estimates of the risk of such disasters. Statistically based risk assessment suffers from short records of often poor quality, and in the case of meteorological hazards, from the fact that the underlying climate is changing. This study shows how a recently developed physics-based risk assessment method can be applied to assessing the probabilities of extreme hurricane rainf...

Short-term energy outlook, October 1998. Quarterly projections, 1998 4. quarter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-10-01

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the Internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from October 1998 through December 1999. Values for third quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the October 1998 version of the Short-term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding.

Geospatial relationships of tree species damage caused by Hurricane Katrina in south Mississippi

Science.gov (United States)

Mark W. Garrigues; Zhaofei Fan; David L. Evans; Scott D. Roberts; William H. Cooke III

2012-01-01

Hurricane Katrina generated substantial impacts on the forests and biological resources of the affected area in Mississippi. This study seeks to use classification tree analysis (CTA) to determine which variables are significant in predicting hurricane damage (shear or windthrow) in the Southeast Mississippi Institute for Forest Inventory District. Logistic regressions...

First Spaceborne GNSS-Reflectometry Observations of Hurricanes From the UK TechDemoSat-1 Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Foti, Giuseppe; Gommenginger, Christine; Srokosz, Meric

2017-12-01

We present the first examples of Global Navigation Satellite Systems-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) observations of hurricanes using spaceborne data from the UK TechDemoSat-1 (TDS-1) mission. We confirm that GNSS-R signals can detect ocean condition changes in very high near-surface ocean wind associated with hurricanes. TDS-1 GNSS-R reflections were collocated with International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) hurricane data, MetOp ASCAT A/B scatterometer winds, and two reanalysis products. Clear variations of GNSS-R reflected power (σ0) are observed as reflections travel through hurricanes, in some cases up to and through the eye wall. The GNSS-R reflected power is tentatively inverted to estimate wind speed using the TDS-1 baseline wind retrieval algorithm developed for low to moderate winds. Despite this, TDS-1 GNSS-R winds through the hurricanes show closer agreement with IBTrACS estimates than winds provided by scatterometers and reanalyses. GNSS-R wind profiles show realistic spatial patterns and sharp gradients that are consistent with expected structures around the eye of tropical cyclones.

A Near-Annual Record of Hurricane Activity From the Little Bahama Bank Over the Last 700 Years

Science.gov (United States)

Winkler, T. S.; van Hengstum, P. J.; Donnelly, J. P.; Sullivan, R.; Albury, N. A.

2016-12-01

Long-term and high-resolution records of hurricane activity that extend past the short observational record (8m vibracores collected with a Rossfelder P-3. The previous core analyzed (TPBH-C1, Continental Shelf Research, 2014) was likely obtained from the cave-area of the bluehole, and previous radiocarbon-dated bivalves deeper in the core were likely impacted by an old-carbon effect, casting doubt on the veracity of the previous age-model at this site. Recent overwash beds from Hurricane Jeanne (2004) and Hurricane Floyd (1999) are present at all coretops, and additional radiocarbon dating that includes terrestrial organic matter fragments indicates a near-annual sedimentation rate in the bluehole (>1cm yr-1), with the record spanning the last 700 years. Since 1866 CE, 12 hurricanes with wind speeds exceeding Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale (wind speeds 154-177 km hr-1) have passed within a 50 km radius of TPBH, many of which can be associated with coarse-grained overwash deposits in the top 200 cm of TPBH-C3. It appears from this high-resolution record that 1500-1650 CE and 1750-1800 CE were active intervals for hurricanes near Abaco, which were previously identified in a lower-resolution (multi-decadal) hurricane reconstruction from Abaco (Blackwood Sinkhole). Additionally, these active intervals coincide with evidence of regional storminess from multiple reconstructions based on historical archives (e.g.: Archivo General de Indias, newspapers, ships' logbooks, meteorological journals), and the 1500-1650 CE active interval falls within a previously identified 1400-1675 CE active interval of intense hurricane strikes on the Northeastern United States. Once the age-model is finalized, further comparison of this record to other regional oceanographic and high-resolution hurricane reconstructions may provide further insight into the drivers of hurricane activity during the last millennium.

A Future with Hope :China Agriculture Outlook 2007

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2007-01-01

@@ China's macro economy has remained in a good and stable condition overall, experiencing an annual GDP growth of over 10% for several consecutive years. Under this basic condition,the main focus of the Outlook was China's current grain and oil supply, and the demand market with its probable future prices.

The photovoltaic: channels, markets and outlooks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jourde, P.

2005-01-01

The photovoltaic market is in expansion with a good energy, political and environmental context. It needs meanwhile to realize developments in the storage domain and in the cost of connexion to the network. To illustrate these conclusions this paper discusses the following chapters: the solar energy, the principle and the channels of the photovoltaic, the applications (autonomous electrification and houses connected to the network) and the markets, a state of the art and the outlooks. (A.L.B.)

Development and Application of Syndromic Surveillance for Severe Weather Events Following Hurricane Sandy.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Stella; Hamby, Teresa; Chu, Alvin; Gleason, Jessie A; Goodrow, Gabrielle M; Gu, Hui; Lifshitz, Edward; Fagliano, Jerald A

2016-06-01

Following Hurricane Superstorm Sandy, the New Jersey Department of Health (NJDOH) developed indicators to enhance syndromic surveillance for extreme weather events in EpiCenter, an online system that collects and analyzes real-time chief complaint emergency department (ED) data and classifies each visit by indicator or syndrome. These severe weather indicators were finalized by using 2 steps: (1) key word inclusion by review of chief complaints from cases where diagnostic codes met selection criteria and (2) key word exclusion by evaluating cases with key words of interest that lacked selected diagnostic codes. Graphs compared 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods of 8 Hurricane Sandy-related severe weather event indicators against the same period in the following year. Spikes in overall ED visits were observed immediately after the hurricane for carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning, the 3 disrupted outpatient medical care indicators, asthma, and methadone-related substance use. Zip code level scan statistics indicated clusters of CO poisoning and increased medicine refill needs during the 2 weeks after Hurricane Sandy. CO poisoning clusters were identified in areas with power outages of 4 days or longer. This endeavor gave the NJDOH a clearer picture of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and yielded valuable state preparation information to monitor the effects of future severe weather events. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:463-471).

Understanding household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information: evidence from survey responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Chiradip; Mozumder, Pallab

2014-06-01

Risk information is critical to adopting mitigation measures, and seeking risk information is influenced by a variety of factors. An essential component of the recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida is to provide homeowners with pertinent risk information to facilitate hurricane risk mitigation activities. We develop an analytical framework to understand household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information through allowing an intensive home inspection. An empirical analysis is used to identify major drivers of household preferences to receive personalized information regarding recommended hurricane risk mitigation measures. A variety of empirical specifications show that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow inspection to seek information. However, households with more members living in the home and households who live in manufactured/mobile homes are less likely to allow inspection. While findings imply MSFH program's ability to link incentives offered by private and public agencies in promoting mitigation, households that face a disproportionately higher level of risk can get priority to make the program more effective. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

What role do hurricanes play in sediment delivery to subsiding river deltas?

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, James E.; Bentley, Samuel J.; Snedden, Gregg; White, Crawford

2015-01-01

The Mississippi River Delta (MRD) has undergone tremendous land loss over the past century due to natural and anthropogenic influences, a fate shared by many river deltas globally. A globally unprecedented effort to restore and sustain the remaining subaerial portions of the delta is now underway, an endeavor that is expected to cost $50–100B over the next 50 yr. Success of this effort requires a thorough understanding of natural and anthropogenic controls on sediment supply and delta geomorphology. In the MRD, hurricanes have been paradoxically identified as both substantial agents of widespread land loss, and vertical marsh sediment accretion. We present the first multi-decadal chronostratigraphic assessment of sediment supply for a major coastal basin of the MRD that assesses both fluvial and hurricane-induced contributions to sediment accumulation in deltaic wetlands. Our findings indicate that over multidecadal timescales, hurricane-induced sediment delivery may be an important contributor for deltaic wetland vertical accretion, but the contribution from hurricanes to long-term sediment accumulation is substantially less than sediment delivery supplied by existing and planned river-sediment diversions at present-day river-sediment loads.

What Role do Hurricanes Play in Sediment Delivery to Subsiding River Deltas?

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, James E; Bentley, Samuel J; Snedden, Gregg A; White, Crawford

2015-12-02

The Mississippi River Delta (MRD) has undergone tremendous land loss over the past century due to natural and anthropogenic influences, a fate shared by many river deltas globally. A globally unprecedented effort to restore and sustain the remaining subaerial portions of the delta is now underway, an endeavor that is expected to cost $50-100B over the next 50 yr. Success of this effort requires a thorough understanding of natural and anthropogenic controls on sediment supply and delta geomorphology. In the MRD, hurricanes have been paradoxically identified as both substantial agents of widespread land loss, and vertical marsh sediment accretion. We present the first multi-decadal chronostratigraphic assessment of sediment supply for a major coastal basin of the MRD that assesses both fluvial and hurricane-induced contributions to sediment accumulation in deltaic wetlands. Our findings indicate that over multidecadal timescales, hurricane-induced sediment delivery may be an important contributor for deltaic wetland vertical accretion, but the contribution from hurricanes to long-term sediment accumulation is substantially less than sediment delivery supplied by existing and planned river-sediment diversions at present-day river-sediment loads.

A chronology of hurricane landfalls at Little Sippewissett Marsh, Massachusetts, USA, using optical dating

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Anni Tindahl; Duller, G.A.T.; Donnelly, J.P.

2009-01-01

Optical dating has been applied to sediments preserved in Little Sippewissett Marsh, Massachusetts, USA, which are associated with overwashing of the beach barrier during hurricane strikes on the coast. The aims were to determine the hurricane landfall frequency, and make comparisons with indepen...

Divergent responses of leaf herbivory to simulated hurricane effects in a rainforest understory

Science.gov (United States)

Chelse Prather

2014-01-01

Hurricanes are major disturbances in many forests, but studies showing effects of natural hurricanes on herbivory rates have yielded mixed results. Forest managers could benefit from a better understanding of the effects of disturbances on herbivory to manage for particular recovery or restoration goals after anthropogenic or natural disturbances, such as logging and...

Are species photosynthetic characteristics good predictors of seedling post-hurricane demographic patterns and species spatiotemporal distribution in a hurricane impacted wet montane forest?

Science.gov (United States)

Luke, Denneko; McLaren, Kurt

2018-05-01

In situ measurements of leaf level photosynthetic response to light were collected from seedlings of ten tree species from a tropical montane wet forest, the John Crow Mountains, Jamaica. A model-based recursive partitioning ('mob') algorithm was then used to identify species associations based on their fitted photosynthetic response curves. Leaf area dark respiration (RD) and light saturated maximum photosynthetic (Amax) rates were also used as 'mob' partitioning variables, to identify species associations based on seedling demographic patterns (from June 2007 to May 2010) following a hurricane (Aug. 2007) and the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of stems in 2006 and 2012. RD and Amax rates ranged from 1.14 to 2.02 μmol (CO2) m-2s-1 and 2.97-5.87 μmol (CO2) m-2s-1, respectively, placing the ten species in the range of intermediate shade tolerance. Several parsimonious species 'mob' groups were formed based on 1) interspecific differences among species response curves, 2) variations in post-hurricane seedling demographic trends and 3) RD rates and species spatiotemporal distribution patterns at aspects that are more or less exposed to hurricanes. The composition of parsimonious groupings based on photosynthetic curves was not concordant with the groups based on demographic trends but was partially concordant with the RD - species spatiotemporal distribution groups. Our results indicated that the influence of photosynthetic characteristics on demographic traits and species distributions was not straightforward. Rather, there was a complex pattern of interaction between ecophysiological and demographic traits, which determined species successional status, post-hurricane response and ultimately, species distribution at our study site.

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : testing the gravity and intervening opportunity models as models of destination choice in hurricane evacuation.

Science.gov (United States)

2006-09-01

The test was conducted by estimating the models on a portion of evacuation data from South Carolina following Hurricane Floyd, and then observing how well the models reproduced destination choice at the county level on the remaining data. The tests s...

An Analysis of the Observed Low-level Structure of Rapidly Intensifying and Mature Hurricane Earl (2010)

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

structure. J. Atmos. Sci. 49: 919–942. Marks FD, Black PG, Montgomery MT, Burpee RW. 2008. Structure of the eye and eyewall of hurricane Hugo (1989...structure of rapidly intensifying and mature hurricane Earl (2010) Michael T. Montgomery,a* Jun A. Zhangb and Roger K. Smithc aDepartment of Meteorology...Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA bNOAA Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL, USA cMeteorological Institute, Ludwig Maximilians, University

ASTER and USGS EROS emergency imaging for hurricane disasters: Chapter 4D in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Duda, Kenneth A.; Abrams, Michael

2007-01-01

Satellite images have been extremely useful in a variety of emergency response activities, including hurricane disasters. This article discusses the collaborative efforts of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Joint United States-Japan Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Science Team, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in responding to crisis situations by tasking the ASTER instrument and rapidly providing information to initial responders. Insight is provided on the characteristics of the ASTER systems, and specific details are presented regarding Hurricane Katrina support.

Racial Differences in Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Vulnerability Following Hurricane Katrina Among a Sample of Adult Cigarette Smokers from New Orleans.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Adam C; Ali, Jeanelle; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan E; Forde, David R; Stockton, Michelle; Read, Mary; Ward, Kenneth D

2017-02-01

Although blacks are more likely than whites to experience posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after a natural disaster, the reasons for this disparity are unclear. This study explores whether race is associated with PTSD after adjusting for differences in preexisting vulnerabilities, exposure to stressors, and loss of social support due to Hurricane Katrina using a representative sample of 279 black and white adult current and past smokers who were present when Hurricane Katrina struck, and identified it as the most traumatic event in their lifetime. Multiple logistic regression models evaluated whether differential vulnerability (pre-hurricane physical and mental health functioning, and education level), differential exposure to hurricane-related stressors, and loss of social support deterioration reduced the association of race with PTSD. Blacks were more likely than whites to screen positive for PTSD (49 vs. 39 %, respectively, p = 0.030). Although blacks reported greater pre-hurricane vulnerability (worse mental health functioning and lower educational attainment) and hurricane-related stressor exposure and had less social support after the hurricane, only pre-hurricane mental health functioning attenuated the association of race with screening positive for PTSD. Thus, racial differences in pre-hurricane functioning, particularly poorer mental health, may partially explain racial disparities in PTSD after natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina. Future studies should examine these associations prospectively using representative cohorts of black and whites and include measures of residential segregation and discrimination, which may further our understanding of racial disparities in PTSD after a natural disaster.

A chronology of hurricane landfalls at Little Sippewissett Marsh, Massachusetts, USA, using optical dating

Science.gov (United States)

Madsen, A. T.; Duller, G. A. T.; Donnelly, J. P.; Roberts, H. M.; Wintle, A. G.

2009-08-01

Optical dating has been applied to sediments preserved in Little Sippewissett Marsh, Massachusetts, USA, which are associated with overwashing of the beach barrier during hurricane strikes on the coast. The aims were to determine the hurricane landfall frequency, and make comparisons with independent age control and the historical record. Written sources of hurricane activity along the American east coast are only considered reliable back to the mid 19th century, but the sedimentary record is potentially much longer. Optical dating was applied to quartz grains extracted from thirteen samples within a sediment core from the salt-marsh. Variability in the luminescence characteristics between aliquots was observed and ~ 33% of the measured aliquots were discarded based upon the ratio of the fast component to the medium component. The majority of the samples gave normal dose distributions implying homogeneous resetting of the luminescence signal at the time of deposition, but three of the samples required application of the minimum age model (MAM). Ages ranging between 20 ± 2 and 594 ± 38 years were obtained and are broadly in agreement with independent chronologies, thus demonstrating the potential of optical dating in this setting. The hurricane record based upon optical dating extends approximately 300 years further back in time than the official National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) record. The localised nature of hurricane landfalls means that it will be necessary to collect multiple cores from a number of different sites in order to build up a complete hurricane record for this part of the coast.

Telehealth at the US Department of Veterans Affairs after Hurricane Sandy.

Science.gov (United States)

Der-Martirosian, Claudia; Griffin, Anne R; Chu, Karen; Dobalian, Aram

2018-01-01

Background Like other integrated health systems, the US Department of Veterans Affairs has widely implemented telehealth during the past decade to improve access to care for its patient population. During major crises, the US Department of Veterans Affairs has the potential to transition healthcare delivery from traditional care to telecare. This paper identifies the types of Veterans Affairs telehealth services used during Hurricane Sandy (2012), and examines the patient characteristics of those users. Methods This study conducted both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Veterans Affairs administrative and clinical data files were used to illustrate the use of telehealth services 12 months pre- and 12 months post- Hurricane Sandy. In-person interviews with 31 key informants at the Manhattan Veterans Affairs Medical Center three-months post- Hurricane Sandy were used to identify major themes related to telecare. Results During the seven-month period of hospital closure at the Manhattan Veterans Affairs Medical Center after Hurricane Sandy, in-person patient visits decreased dramatically while telehealth visits increased substantially, suggesting that telecare was used in lieu of in-person care for some vulnerable patients. The most commonly used types of Veterans Affairs telehealth services included primary care, triage, mental health, home health, and ancillary services. Using qualitative analyses, three themes emerged from the interviews regarding the use of Veterans Affairs telecare post- Hurricane Sandy: patient safety, provision of telecare, and patient outreach. Conclusion Telehealth offers the potential to improve post-disaster access to and coordination of care. More information is needed to better understand how telehealth can change the processes and outcomes during disasters. Future studies should also evaluate key elements, such as adequate resources, regulatory and technology issues, workflow integration, provider resistance, diagnostic fidelity and

Elements of extreme wind modeling for hurricanes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Søren Ejling; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans; Kelly, Mark C.

The report summarizes characteristics of the winds associated with Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes, Typhoons). It has been conducted by the authors across several years, from 2012-2015, to identify the processes and aspects that one should consider when building at useful computer support system...

Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2009-03-01

The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009), prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030, based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). EIA published an “early release” version of the AEO2009 reference case in December 2008.

Delta lobe degradation and hurricane impacts governing large-scale coastal behavior, South-central Louisiana, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Miner, M.D.; Kulp, M.A.; FitzGerald, D.M.; Flocks, J.G.; Weathers, H.D.

2009-01-01

A large deficit in the coastal sediment budget, high rates of relative sea-level rise (???0.9 cm/year), and storm-induced current and wave erosion are forcing barrier shoreface retreat along the periphery of the Mississippi River delta plain. Additionally, conversion of interior wetlands to open water has increased the bay tidal prism, resulting in degradation of barrier islands due to inlet widening, formation of new inlets, and sediment sequestration at ebb-tidal deltas. Single-beam bathymetric surveys along a 165-km stretch of south-central Louisiana barrier coast, from Raccoon Point in Terrebonne Parish to Sandy Point in Plaquemines Parish, were conducted in 2006. These data, combined with historical bathymetry from three time periods (dating to the 1880s), provide a series of digital elevation models that were used to calculate sediment volumetric changes and determine long-term erosional-depositional trends. Dominant patterns during the 125-year period include (1) erosion of ???1.6????????109 m3 from the shoreface, forcing up to 3 km of shoreface retreat, (2) sediment deposition in coastal bights and at ebb-tidal deltas, and (3) a combined increase in tidal inlet cross-sectional area from ???41,400 m2 to ???139,500 m 2. Bathymetric and shoreline change datasets separated by shorter time periods (sub-annual) demonstrate that these long-term trends are driven by processes associated with major hurricane impacts, and that rates of shoreface erosion are an order of magnitude greater during active hurricane seasons compared to long-term trends. ?? 2009 Springer-Verlag.

Hurricane Ike versus an Atomic Bomb

Science.gov (United States)

Pearson, Earl F.

2013-01-01

The destructive potential of one of nature's most destructive forces, the hurricane, is compared to one of human's most destructive devices, an atomic bomb. Both can create near absolute devastation at "ground zero". However, how do they really compare in terms of destructive energy? This discussion compares the energy, the…

Effects of Hurricane-Felled Tree Trunks on Soil Carbon, Nitrogen, Microbial Biomass, and Root Length in a Wet Tropical Forest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Jean Lodge

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Decaying coarse woody debris can affect the underlying soil either by augmenting nutrients that can be exploited by tree roots, or by diminishing nutrient availability through stimulation of microbial nutrient immobilization. We analyzed C, N, microbial biomass C and root length in closely paired soil samples taken under versus 20–50 cm away from large trunks of two species felled by Hugo (1989 and Georges (1998 three times during wet and dry seasons over the two years following the study conducted by Georges. Soil microbial biomass, % C and % N were significantly higher under than away from logs felled by both hurricanes (i.e., 1989 and 1998, at all sampling times and at both depths (0–10 and 10–20 cm. Frass from wood boring beetles may contribute to early effects. Root length was greater away from logs during the dry season, and under logs in the wet season. Root length was correlated with microbial biomass C, soil N and soil moisture (R = 0.36, 0.18, and 0.27, respectively; all p values < 0.05. Microbial biomass C varied significantly among seasons but differences between positions (under vs. away were only suggestive. Microbial C was correlated with soil N (R = 0.35. Surface soil on the upslope side of the logs had significantly more N and microbial biomass, likely from accumulation of leaf litter above the logs on steep slopes. We conclude that decaying wood can provide ephemeral resources that are exploited by tree roots during some seasons.

The carbon cycle and hurricanes in the United States between 1900 and 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Dahal, Devendra; Liu, Shuguang; Oeding, Jennifer

2014-06-06

Hurricanes cause severe impacts on forest ecosystems in the United States. These events can substantially alter the carbon biogeochemical cycle at local to regional scales. We selected all tropical storms and more severe events that made U.S. landfall between 1900 and 2011 and used hurricane best track database, a meteorological model (HURRECON), National Land Cover Database (NLCD), U. S. Department of Agirculture Forest Service biomass dataset, and pre- and post-MODIS data to quantify individual event and annual biomass mortality. Our estimates show an average of 18.2 TgC/yr of live biomass mortality for 1900-2011 in the US with strong spatial and inter-annual variability. Results show Hurricane Camille in 1969 caused the highest aboveground biomass mortality with 59.5 TgC. Similarly 1954 had the highest annual mortality with 68.4 TgC attributed to landfalling hurricanes. The results presented are deemed useful to further investigate historical events, and the methods outlined are potentially beneficial to quantify biomass loss in future events.

Urban sprawl and body mass index among displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Arcaya, Mariana; James, Peter; Rhodes, Jean E; Waters, Mary C; Subramanian, S V

2014-08-01

Existing research suggests that walkable environments are protective against weight gain, while sprawling neighborhoods may pose health risks. Using prospective data on displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors, we provide the first natural experimental data on sprawl and body mass index (BMI). The analysis uses prospectively collected pre- (2003-2005) and post-hurricane (2006-2007) data from the Resilience in Survivors of Katrina (RISK) project on 280 displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors who had little control over their neighborhood placement immediately after the disaster. The county sprawl index, a standardized measure of built environment, was used to predict BMI at follow-up, adjusted for baseline BMI and sprawl; hurricane-related trauma; and demographic and economic characteristics. Respondents from 8 New Orleans-area counties were dispersed to 76 counties post-Katrina. Sprawl increased by an average of 1.5 standard deviations (30 points) on the county sprawl index. Each one point increase in sprawl was associated with approximately .05kg/m(2) higher BMI in unadjusted models (95%CI: .01-.08), and the relationship was not attenuated after covariate adjustment. We find a robust association between residence in a sprawling county and higher BMI unlikely to be caused by self-selection into neighborhoods, suggesting that the built environment may foster changes in weight. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) with AIRS data

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Liguang; Braun, Scott A.; Qu, John J.; Hao, Xianjun

2006-02-01

Using the AIRS retrieved temperature and humidity profiles, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) influence on the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) is simulated numerically with the MM5 model. The warmth and dryness of the SAL (the thermodynamic effect) is assimilated by use of the nudging technique, which enables the model thermodynamic state to be relaxed to the profiles of the AIRS retrieved data for the regions without cloud contamination. By incorporating the AIRS data, MM5 better simulates the large-scale flow patterns and the timing and location of the formation of Hurricane Isabel and its subsequent track. By comparing with an experiment without nudging of the AIRS data, it is shown that the SAL may have delayed the formation of Hurricane Isabel and inhibited the development of another tropical disturbance to the east. This case study confirms the argument by Dunion and Velden (2004) that the SAL can suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity by increasing the vertical wind shear, reducing the mean relative humidity, and stabilizing the environment at lower levels.

Hurricane Gustav: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

Science.gov (United States)

Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Guy, Kristy K.; Serafin, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, currents, and wave field. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and surface waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is also a significant aspect of the coastal change observed during extreme storms. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes) strives to provide hazard information to those concerned about the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure morphological changes associated with Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana, on September 1, 2008. Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography, airborne topographic surveys, and ground-based topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and

Mother and Child Reports of Hurricane Related Stressors: Data from a Sample of Families Exposed to Hurricane Katrina

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Betty S.; Beaulieu, Brooke; Ogokeh, Constance E.; Self-Brown, Shannon; Kelley, Mary Lou

2015-01-01

Background: Families exposed to disasters such as Hurricane Katrina are at risk for numerous adverse outcomes. While previous literature suggests that the degree of disaster exposure corresponds with experiencing negative outcomes, it is unclear if parents and children report similar levels of disaster exposure. Objective: The purpose of this…

Lessons from Crisis Recovery in Schools: How Hurricanes Impacted Schools, Families and the Community

Science.gov (United States)

Howat, Holly; Curtis, Nikki; Landry, Shauna; Farmer, Kara; Kroll, Tobias; Douglass, Jill

2012-01-01

This article examines school and school district-level efforts to reopen schools after significant damage from hurricanes. Through an empirical, qualitative research design, four themes emerged as critical to the hurricane recovery process: the importance of communication, resolving tension, coordinating with other services and learning from the…

Hurricane Sandy Exposure Alters the Development of Neural Reactivity to Negative Stimuli in Children.

Science.gov (United States)

Kessel, Ellen M; Nelson, Brady D; Kujawa, Autumn; Hajcak, Greg; Kotov, Roman; Bromet, Evelyn J; Carlson, Gabrielle A; Klein, Daniel N

2018-03-01

This study examined whether exposure to Hurricane Sandy-related stressors altered children's brain response to emotional information. An average of 8 months (M age  = 9.19) before and 9 months after (M age  = 10.95) Hurricane Sandy, 77 children experiencing high (n = 37) and low (n = 40) levels of hurricane-related stress exposure completed a task in which the late positive potential, a neural index of emotional reactivity, was measured in response to pleasant and unpleasant, compared to neutral, images. From pre- to post-Hurricane Sandy, children with high stress exposure failed to show the same decrease in emotional reactivity to unpleasant versus neutral stimuli as those with low stress exposure. Results provide compelling evidence that exposure to natural disaster-related stressors alters neural emotional reactivity to negatively valenced information. © 2016 The Authors. Child Development © 2016 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Fire management ramifications of Hurricane Hugo

Science.gov (United States)

J. M. Saveland; D. D. Wade

1991-01-01

Hurricane Hugo passed over the Francis Marion National Forest on September 22, 1989, removing almost 75 percent of the overstory. The radically altered fuel bed presented new and formidable challenges to fire managers. Tractor-plows, the mainstay of fire suppression, were rendered ineffective. The specter of wind-driven escaped burns with no effective means of ground...

Projecting the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests (1851-2100)

Science.gov (United States)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.

2009-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Estimates of the carbon emissions resulting from single storms range as high as ~100 Tg C, an amount equivalent to the annual U.S. carbon sink in forest trees. Recent studies have estimated the historic regional carbon emissions from hurricane activity using an empirically based approach. Here, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by maps of mortality and damage based on historic hurricane tracks and future scenarios to predict the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests. Model estimates compare well to previous empirically based estimates, with mean annual biomass loss of 26 Tg C yr-1 (range 0 to ~225 Tg C yr-1) resulting from hurricanes during the period 1851-2000. Using the mechanistic model, we are able to include the effects of both disturbance and recovery on the net carbon flux. We find a regional carbon sink throughout much of the 20th century resulting from forest recovery following a peak in hurricane activity during the late 19th century exceeding biomass loss. Recent increased hurricane activity has resulted in the region becoming a net carbon source. For the future, several recent studies have linked increased sea surface temperatures expected with climate change to increased hurricane activity. Based on these relationships, we investigate a range of scenarios of future hurricane activity and find the potential for substantial increases in emissions from hurricane mortality and reductions in regional carbon stocks. In our scenario with the largest increase in hurricane activity, we find a 35% increase in area disturbed by 2100, but due to the reduction of standing biomass, only a 20% increase in biomass loss per year. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and

The Role of Peers in the Relation between Hurricane Exposure and Ataques de Nervios among Puerto Rican Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Rubens, Sonia L; Felix, Erika D; Vernberg, Eric M; Canino, Glorisa

2014-11-01

Although a relation between disaster exposure and ataques de nervios ( ataques ) has been established in adult samples, little is known about this among youth, including factors that may moderate this relation. This study examined the role of the peer context in the relation between exposure to Hurricane Georges and experiencing a past year and lifetime ataques among a representative community sample of 905 youth (N = 476 boys and 429 girls; ages 11-18) residing in Puerto Rico. Data were gathered from 1999-2000 in Puerto Rico, 12-27 months following Hurricane Georges. Logistic regression analyses found that peer violence significantly predicted experiencing an ataque in the past year. Hurricane exposure and peer violence were both significant predictors of a lifetime experience of an ataque . An interaction was found between hurricane exposure and peer violence, indicating that hurricane exposure was significantly related to a lifetime experience of an ataque among adolescents who do not report associating with violent peers. For participants reporting high levels of peer violence, hurricane exposure did not add additional risk for a lifetime experience of an ataque . Understanding the influence of peers in the relation between hurricane exposure and experiencing an ataque may assist in planning developmentally and culturally sensitive response plans.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6 to 10 Day Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues 6 to 10 day probabilistic precipitation outlooks for the United States. The 6-10 day Outlook gives the confidence that a...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 Day Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues 8 to 14 day probabilistic precipitation outlooks for the United States. The 8-14 day Outlook gives the confidence that a...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6 to 10 Day Probabilistic Temperature Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues 6 to 10 day probabilistic temperature outlooks for the United States. The 6-10 day Outlook gives the confidence that a...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 Day Probabilistic Temperature Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues 8 to 14 day probabilistic temperature outlooks for the United States. The 8-14 day Outlook gives the confidence that a...

An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Robert M.

2009-01-01

An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the combined high-activity intervals (1950-1965 and 1995-2008) give the central 50% intervals to be 9-14, 5-8, and 2-4, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a 23.4% chance of exceeding 14 tropical cyclones, a 28% chance of exceeding 8 hurricanes, and a 31.9% chance of exceeding 4 major hurricanes. Based strictly on the statistics of the current high-activity interval (1995-2008), the central 50% intervals for the numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12-18, 6-10, and 3-5, respectively, with only a 5% chance of exceeding 23, 13, or 7 storms, respectively. Also examined are the first differences in 10-yr moving averages and the effects of global warming and decadal-length oscillations on the frequencies of occurrence for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In particular, temperature now appears to be the principal driver of increased activity and storm strength during the current high-activity interval, with near-record values possible during the 2009 season.

Analysis of storm-tide impacts from Hurricane Sandy in New York

Science.gov (United States)

Schubert, Christopher E.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Hearn, Paul P.; Rahav, Ami N.; Behrens, Riley; Finkelstein, Jason S.; Monti, Jack; Simonson, Amy E.

2015-07-21

The hybrid cyclone-nor’easter known as Hurricane Sandy affected the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States during October 28-30, 2012, causing extensive coastal flooding. Prior to storm landfall, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network from Virginia to Maine to record the storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Sandy. This sensor network augmented USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent monitoring sites that also documented storm surge. Continuous data from these networks were supplemented by an extensive post-storm high-water-mark (HWM) flagging and surveying campaign. The sensor deployment and HWM campaign were conducted under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The need for hydrologic interpretation of monitoring data to assist in flood-damage analysis and future flood mitigation prompted the current analysis of Hurricane Sandy by the USGS under this FEMA mission assignment.

World energy outlook 2014

CERN Document Server

International Energy Agency. Paris

2014-01-01

The global energy landscape is evolving at a rapid pace, reshaping long-held expectations for our energy future. The 2014 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) will incorporate all the latest data and developments to produce a comprehensive and authoritative analysis of medium- and longer-term energy trends. It will complement a full set of energy projections – which extend from today through, for the first time, the year 2040 – with strategic insights into their meaning for energy security, the economy and the environment. Oil, natural gas, coal, renewables and energy efficiency will be covered, along with updates on trends in energy-related CO2 emissions, fossil-fuel and renewable energy subsidies, and universal access to modern energy services.

World energy outlook 2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

The World Energy Outlook is the most complete and authoritative energy publication and has received several prestigious awards from government and industry in recognition of its analytical excellence. The new edition offers: - Analysis: Over 550 pages of detailed analysis with 150 graphs and tables. - Projections: Supply and demand projections to 2030 for oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity, plus projections of energy related CO 2 emissions. -World Alternative Policy Scenario:A detailed assessment of the impact of possible climate change policies and energy efficient technologies. -Russia: An in-depth study of the 'most important energy country'. - Energy and Development: An analysis of energy's role in overcoming world poverty. - Reserves: A detailed analysis of world oil and gas reserves and of the problems involved in measuring them

Innovative algorithms and tools summary and outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fine, V.E.; Naumann, N.A.

2003-01-01

This contribution provides a summary of the 'Session IV: Innovative Algorithms and Tools'. The 'tools' portion of the session IV comprised three oral sessions, 12 talks by seven speakers, and three posters. The algorithmic part was covered by 15 talks and three poster presentations. We will try to give a summary of the main development directions, and state our personal views and interpretation on it as well as an outlook

RSM Outlook Winter 2013: Growing Tomorrow's Entrepreneurs

OpenAIRE

Whittern, Justine; Schreiner, Dorine

2013-01-01

markdownabstract#### Innovation and the path to value (Russell Gilbert) At the RSM Leadership Summit in October, Frans van Houten, CEO of Royal Philips (pictured), gave a uniquely insightful presentation about the benefits of organisational transformation, innovation, and the importance of keeping abreast of technological and societal changes. In an exclusive interview, Mr Van Houten discusses these issues with Russell Gilbert, Managing Editor of RSM Outlook. #### Ready for lift off!! (Bennet...

Transformative experiences for Hurricanes Katrina and Rita disaster volunteers.

Science.gov (United States)

Clukey, Lory

2010-07-01

The massive destruction caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 provided an opportunity for many volunteers to be involved with disaster relief work. Exposure to devastation and personal trauma can have long-lasting and sometimes detrimental effects on people providing help. This qualitative study explored the experience of volunteer relief workers who provided disaster relief services after the hurricanes. Three major themes emerged: emotional reactions that included feelings of shock, fatigue, anger and grief as well as sleep disturbances; frustration with leadership; and life-changing personal transformation. Stress reactions were noted but appeared to be mitigated by feelings of compassion for the victims and personal satisfaction in being able to provide assistance. Suggestions are provided for further research.

Quantifying the Digital Traces of Hurricane Sandy on Flickr

Science.gov (United States)

Preis, Tobias; Moat, Helen Susannah; Bishop, Steven R.; Treleaven, Philip; Stanley, H. Eugene

2013-11-01

Society's increasing interactions with technology are creating extensive ``digital traces'' of our collective human behavior. These new data sources are fuelling the rapid development of the new field of computational social science. To investigate user attention to the Hurricane Sandy disaster in 2012, we analyze data from Flickr, a popular website for sharing personal photographs. In this case study, we find that the number of photos taken and subsequently uploaded to Flickr with titles, descriptions or tags related to Hurricane Sandy bears a striking correlation to the atmospheric pressure in the US state New Jersey during this period. Appropriate leverage of such information could be useful to policy makers and others charged with emergency crisis management.

Lessons from Hurricane Sandy for port resilience.

Science.gov (United States)