WorldWideScience

Sample records for hurricane intensity prediction

  1. Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes

    OpenAIRE

    Khare, Shree; Jewson, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling hurricanes, and for intense hurricanes only. We find that the averaging lengths needed for optimal predictions of numbers of intense hurricanes are longer than those needed for optimal predictions of numbers of hurricanes of all strengths.

  2. Probabilistic Predictions and Downscaling with an Analog Ensemble for Weather, Renewable Energy, Air Quality, and Hurricane Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delle Monache, L.

    2015-12-01

    The analog of a forecast for a given location and time is defined as the observation that corresponds to a past prediction matching selected features of the current forecast. The best analogs form the analog ensemble (AnEn). First AnEn skill is analyzed for predictions of 10-m wind speed and 2-m temperature. We show that AnEn produces accurate predictions and a reliable quantification of their uncertainty with similar or superior skill compared to cutting-edge methods, while requiring considerably less computational resources. A preliminary example of an application of AnEn in 3D will also be shown. Second, results for wind power predictions are presented, which confirm AnEn performance obtained for meteorological variables. Further improvements can be obtained by implementing analog-predictor weighting strategies, as will be shown. Third, AnEn is implemented for downscaling the wind speed and precipitation fields from a reanalysis data set. AnEn significantly reduces the systematic and random errors in the downscaled estimates, and simultaneously improves correlation between the downscaled time series and the measurements, over what is provided by a reanalysis field alone. The AnEn also provides a reliable quantification of uncertainties in the estimate, thereby permitting decision makers to objectively define confidence intervals to the estimated long-term energy yield. We inckude also a discussion of the implementation of AnEn in data-sparse regions, where in that case it can be used as a technique to drastically reduce the computational cost of NWP-based dynamical downscaling. We conclude we the latest novel inplementations of AnEn for air quality and hurricane intensity predictions.

  3. Hurricane damage assessment for residential construction considering the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Cao; LI Quanwang; PANG Long; ZOU Aming; ZHANG Long

    2016-01-01

    Natural hazards such as hurricanes may cause extensive economic losses and social disruption for civil structures and infrastructures in coastal areas, implying the importance of understanding the construction performance subjected to hurricanes and assessing the hurricane damages properly. The intensity and frequency of hurricanes have been reported to change with time due to the potential impact of climate change. In this paper, a probability-based model of hurricane damage assessment for coastal constructions is proposed taking into account the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency. The non-homogeneous Poisson process is employed to model the non-stationarity in hurricane occurrence while the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity is reflected by the time-variant statistical parameters (e.g., mean value and/or standard deviation), with which the mean value and variation of the cumulative hurricane damage are evaluated explicitly. The Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA, is chosen to illustrate the hurricane damage assessment method proposed in this paper. The role of non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and occurrence rate due to climate change in hurricane damage is investigated using some representative changing patterns of hurricane parameters.

  4. Dynamics and Predictability of Hurricane Dolly (2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, J.; Zhang, F.; Weng, Y.

    2008-12-01

    Through several cloud-resolving simulations with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model, this study examines the dynamics and predictability of Hurricane Dolly (2008) with an emphasis on its initial development (around the time being declared as a tropical storm) and subsequent rapid intensification entering into the Gulf of Mexico. These WRF simulations include three that are directly initialized with the operational NCEP GFS analyses at 06, 12 and 18Z 20 July 2008, respectively (EXP06, EXP12, EXP18) and another the same as EXP06 except that the airborne Doppler velocity observations by a NOAA P3 aircraft during 12-15Z are assimilated with an ensemble-Kalman filter (ENKF06). Among the four experiments, only EXP06 fails to capture the rapid intensification and fails to develop the tropical storm into a mature hurricane. Preliminary comparison between the simulated fields of EXP06 and the GFS analysis at 12Z (e.g., IC of EXP12) indicates that large scale features favorable to the tropical cyclogenesis cannot be properly simulated in EXP06. The initial disturbance is rather weak positioned too far south-west that is far away from the primary convective. However, after the airborne radar data during 12-15Z are assimilated into the model, (from EXP06 into ENKF06), the ENKF06 simulation is greatly improved in that a well-organized warm-core vortex appears at the low level right after radar assimilation, which subsequently developed into a hurricane consistent with timing, track and intensity of observations. Interestingly, there are significant differences in the initial vortex position, structure and evolution among the three simulations (EXP12, EXP18, ENKF06) that all eventually develop a mature hurricane along the observed track (before landfall) with right timing after enters into the Gulf of Mexico. At 18Z 20 July, there is no apparent initial low-level cyclonic vortex in EXP12 and EXP18 (that is assimilated into ENKF06 due to radar observations

  5. The Impact of the Storm-Induced SST Cooling on Hurricane Intensity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The effects of storm-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling on hurricane intensity are investigated using a 5-day cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Two sensitivity simulations are performed in which the storm-induced cooling is either ignored or shifted close to the modeled storm track. Results show marked sensitivity of the model-simulated storm intensity to the magnitude and relative position with respect to the hurricane track. It is shown that incorporation of the storm-induced cooling, with an average value of 1.3℃, causes a 25-hPa weakening of the hurricane, which is about 20hPa per 1℃ change in SST. Shifting the SST cooling close to the storm track generates the weakest storm,accounting for about 47% reduction in the storm intensity. It is found that the storm intensity changes are well correlated with the air-sea temperature difference. The results have important implications for the use of coupled hurricane-ocean models for numerical prediction of tropical cyclones.

  6. A metastatistical approach to modelling extreme hurricane intensities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Seyed Reza; Marani, Marco; Scaioni, Marco

    2017-04-01

    Estimating the probability of occurrence of extreme hurricane intensities is significant in a vast number of fields and plays a crucial role in hurricane risk assessment. The method typically employed for these analyses applies traditional Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to fit the Generalize Extreme Value Distribution (GEVD) to hurricane maximum wind speed. In this framework, an asymptotic regime or a Poisson occurrence process are assumed to derive the GEVD, which is fitted using values over a high threshold or yearly maxima. However, the relative rarity of hurricanes implies that the number of events per year is not nearly sufficient for this asymptotic hypothesis to be valid, and the selection of a subset of the events drastically reduces the amount of information used. To overcome this limitation, we apply an alternative approach based on the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD) to extreme hurricane intensity analyses. The derivation of the MEVD relaxes the limiting assumption of the traditional EVT, by taking into account the distribution of the entire range of recorded event magnitudes, rather than just the distributional tail. Taking advantage of this method, we can use the entire observational set, including hurricanes with relatively lower intensities, with clear statistical advantages. We comparatively assess the MEVD and the classical EVT quantile estimation uncertainties using the 130-year long Maximum Sustained Wind (MSW) speed time series for all hurricanes in the north Atlantic basin obtained from the National Hurricane Center (Atlantic HURDAT2). The parameters of the GEVD are estimated using a range of methods to ensure an optimal estimator is found. The MEVD is fitted assuming a Generalize Pareto Distribution (GPD) for the "ordinary" values of MSW over 5- to 10-year blocks using Probability Weighted Moments (PWM). The statistical tests are performed by dividing the dataset (of length L) into two distinct parts: S years for calibration and

  7. Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Tchounwou

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE obtained at the equilibrium level (EL, from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  8. Environmental modeling, technology, and communication for land falling tropical cyclone/hurricane prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuluri, Francis; Reddy, R Suseela; Anjaneyulu, Y; Colonias, John; Tchounwou, Paul

    2010-05-01

    Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (W(max)) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21-30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2-3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  9. Predicting hurricane wind damage by claim payout based on Hurricane Ike in Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Myong Kim

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasing occurrence of natural disasters and their related damage have led to a growing demand for models that predict financial loss. Although considerable research on the financial losses related to natural disasters has found significant predictors, there has been a lack of comprehensive study that addresses the relationship among vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and the economic losses of individual buildings. This study identifies the vulnerability indicators for hurricanes to establish a metric to predict the related financial loss. We classify hurricane-prone areas by highlighting the spatial distribution of losses and vulnerabilities. This study used a Geographical Information System (GIS to combine and produce spatial data and a multiple regression method to establish a wind damage prediction model. As the dependent variable, we used the value of the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA claim payout divided by the appraised values of the buildings to predict real economic loss. As independent variables, we selected a hurricane indicator and built environment vulnerability indicators. The model we developed can be used by government agencies and insurance companies to predict hurricane wind damage.

  10. Intensive longleaf pine management for hurricane recovery: fourth-year results

    Science.gov (United States)

    David S. Dyson; Dale G. Brockway

    2015-01-01

    The frequency and intensity of hurricanes affecting the United States has been projected to increase during coming decades, and this rising level of cyclonic storm activity is expected to substantially damage southeastern forests. Although hurricane damage to forests in this region is not new, recent emphasis on longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill...

  11. The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Intensity and Track of Hurricane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W. K.; Shi, J. J.; Chen, S. S.; Lang, S.; Lin, P.; Hong, S. Y.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Hou, A.

    2010-01-01

    During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. The WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. The WRF model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At Goddard, four different cloud microphysics schemes (warm rain only, two-class of ice, two three-class of ice with either graupel or hail) are implemented into the WRF. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics scheme options for an Atlantic hurricane case. In addition, a brief review and comparison on the previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and microphysical processes on intensity and track of hurricane will be presented. Generally, almost all modeling studies found that the microphysics schemes did not have major impacts on track forecast, but did have more effect on the intensity. All modeling studies found that the simulated hurricane has rapid deepening and/or intensification for the warm rain-only case. It is because all hydrometeors were very large raindrops, and they fell out quickly at and near the eye-wall region. This would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these modeling studies suggested that the simulated hurricane becomes unrealistically strong by removing the evaporative cooling of cloud droplets and melting of ice particles. This is due to the

  12. Probabilistic prediction of barrier-island response to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.

    2012-01-01

    Prediction of barrier-island response to hurricane attack is important for assessing the vulnerability of communities, infrastructure, habitat, and recreational assets to the impacts of storm surge, waves, and erosion. We have demonstrated that a conceptual model intended to make qualitative predictions of the type of beach response to storms (e.g., beach erosion, dune erosion, dune overwash, inundation) can be reformulated in a Bayesian network to make quantitative predictions of the morphologic response. In an application of this approach at Santa Rosa Island, FL, predicted dune-crest elevation changes in response to Hurricane Ivan explained about 20% to 30% of the observed variance. An extended Bayesian network based on the original conceptual model, which included dune elevations, storm surge, and swash, but with the addition of beach and dune widths as input variables, showed improved skill compared to the original model, explaining 70% of dune elevation change variance and about 60% of dune and shoreline position change variance. This probabilistic approach accurately represented prediction uncertainty (measured with the log likelihood ratio), and it outperformed the baseline prediction (i.e., the prior distribution based on the observations). Finally, sensitivity studies demonstrated that degrading the resolution of the Bayesian network or removing data from the calibration process reduced the skill of the predictions by 30% to 40%. The reduction in skill did not change conclusions regarding the relative importance of the input variables, and the extended model's skill always outperformed the original model.

  13. Hurricane destructive power predictions based on historical storm and sea surface temperature data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogen, Kenneth T; Jones, Edwin D; Fischer, Larry E

    2007-12-01

    Forecasting destructive hurricane potential is complicated by substantial, unexplained intraannual variation in storm-specific power dissipation index (PDI, or integrated third power of wind speed), and interannual variation in annual accumulated PDI (APDI). A growing controversy concerns the recent hypothesis that the clearly positive trend in North Atlantic Ocean (NAO) sea surface temperature (SST) since 1970 explains increased hurricane intensities over this period, and so implies ominous PDI and APDI growth as global warming continues. To test this "SST hypothesis" and examine its quantitative implications, a combination of statistical and probabilistic methods were applied to National Hurricane Center HURDAT best-track data on NAO hurricanes during 1880-2002, and corresponding National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Extended Reconstruction SST estimates. Notably, hurricane behavior was compared to corresponding hurricane-specific (i.e., spatiotemporally linked) SST; previous similar comparisons considered only SST averaged over large NAO regions. Contrary to the SST hypothesis, SST was found to vary in a monthly pattern inconsistent with that of corresponding PDI, and to be at best weakly associated with PDI or APDI despite strong correlation with corresponding mean latitude (R(2)= 0.55) or with combined mean location and a approximately 90-year periodic trend (R(2)= 0.70). Over the last century, the lower 75% of APDIs appear randomly sampled from a nearly uniform distribution, and the upper 25% of APDIs from a nearly lognormal distribution. From the latter distribution, a baseline (SST-independent) stochastic model was derived predicting that over the next half century, APDI will not likely exceed its maximum value over the last half century by more than a factor of 1.5. This factor increased to 2 using a baseline model modified to assume SST-dependence conditioned on an upper bound of the increasing NAO SST trend observed since 1970. An

  14. Dependence of Hurricane Intensity and Structures on Vertical Resolution and Time-Step Size

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Da-Lin ZHANG; Xiaoxue WANG

    2003-01-01

    In view of the growing interests in the explicit modeling of clouds and precipitation, the effects of varyingvertical resolution and time-step sizes on the 72-h explicit simulation of Hurricane Andrew (1992) arestudied using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR)mesoscale model (i.e., MMS) with the finest grid size of 6 km. It is shown that changing vertical resolutionand time-step size has significant effects on hurricane intensity and inner-core cloud/precipitation, butlittle impact on the hurricane track. In general, increasing vertical resolution tends to produce a deeperstorm with lower central pressure and stronger three-dimensional winds, and more precipitation. Similareffects, but to a less extent, occur when the time-step size is reduced. It is found that increasing thelow-level vertical resolution is more efficient in intensifying a hurricane, whereas changing the upper-levelvertical resolution has little impact on the hurricane intensity. Moreover, the use of a thicker surface layertends to produce higher maximum surface winds. It is concluded that the use of higher vertical resolution,a thin surface layer, and smaller time-step sizes, along with higher horizontal resolution, is desirable tomodel more realistically the intensity and inner-core structures and evolution of tropical storms as well asthe other convectively driven weather systems.

  15. A Numerical Study of the Effect of GOES Sounder Cloud-Cleared Brightness Temperatures on the Prediction of Hurricane Felix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Xiaolei; Xiao, Qingnong; Lipton, Alan E.; Modica, George D.

    2001-01-01

    The influence of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) brightness temperature data on the numerical simulations of Hurricane Felix is investigated. Satellite data are included as an augmentation to a bogus data assimilation (BDA) procedure using a mesoscale adjoint modeling system. The assimilation of satellite data modified not only the environmental flow but also the structure of the initial vortex, which is located over a region devoid of satellite data. This modification resulted in a reduction of the 12-h forecast errors verified by radiosonde data. Despite the fact that the forecast using only the bogus surface low at the initial time was very good, track and intensity forecasts beyond 2 days of model integration were shown to be improved further by including satellite data in the initialization procedure. Differences in the prediction of Hurricane Felix with and without satellite data were also found in the prediction of the upper-level jet, the cold temperature trough ahead of the hurricane, the size of the hurricane eye, and the location of the maximum hydrometeor. Although the focus of this study is to assess the effect of the direct use of satellite brightness temperature data on hurricane prediction, it is also noted that the BDA experiment including only the bogus data shows a positive effect of the BDA vortex on the environmental flow during the forecast period, as verified by satellite observations.

  16. Children, Learning and Chronic Natural Disasters: How Does the Government of Dominica Address Education during Low-Intensity Hurricanes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrant, Ted Donaldson

    2013-01-01

    By the time today's Grade K students graduate high school in the Commonwealth of Dominica, they will have experienced five major and many low-intensity hurricanes (LIH). Between August and November each year, each hurricane, major or low-intensity, represents a major threat to their safety and schooling. This mixed-method case study investigated…

  17. Using the QBO to predict the number of hurricanes hitting the U.S

    CERN Document Server

    Coughlin, Katie

    2007-01-01

    A simple study of the relationship between the QBO and the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, both in the Basin and hitting the U.S. coastline, demonstrates that the QBO is not a particularly useful index to help predict hurricane numbers on five-year time scales. It is shown that there is very little difference between the number of hurricanes following easterly winds in the equatorial stratosphere and the number that follow westerly winds. Given this it is reasonable one would make better predictions just using the mean number of hurricanes in lieu of using the QBO and this is also simply demonstrated here.

  18. Using CloudSat and MODIS for exploring a hurricane intensity estimation technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, R. J.

    2012-12-01

    Observing Tropical Cyclones (TC) using satellites is a common and successful endeavor. However, using satellites to accurately measure storm intensity is a more difficult and involved task. Our research aim to accurately measure hurricane intensity using only satellite obtained data. Modeling a hurricane as a balanced convectively neutral vortex, along with assumptions on the contributing factors to moist static energy, we explore techniques for estimating hurricane intensity. We used maximum sustained wind to characterize hurricane intensity. We calculated maximum sustained wind using the Wong and Emanuel expression for peak wind speed in a storm. CloudSat cloud profiling radar was used for obtaining cloud-top height and cloud composition information, and the MODIS instrument on-board Aqua was used to obtain cloud-top temperature. This technique requires eye or near eye overpass and simultaneous data collection and as a result have a limited sample size. We compare our results to the best track database and analyze the validity of our estimations.

  19. Climate forcing of unprecedented intense-hurricane activity in the last 2000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Hawkes, Andrea D.; Lane, Philip; MacDonald, Dana; Shuman, Bryan N.; Toomey, Michael R.; van Hengstum, Peter J.; Woodruff, Jonathan D.

    2015-02-01

    How climate controls hurricane variability has critical implications for society is not well understood. In part, our understanding is hampered by the short and incomplete observational hurricane record. Here we present a synthesis of intense-hurricane activity from the western North Atlantic over the past two millennia, which is supported by a new, exceptionally well-resolved record from Salt Pond, Massachusetts (USA). At Salt Pond, three coarse grained event beds deposited in the historical interval are consistent with severe hurricanes in 1991 (Bob), 1675, and 1635 C.E., and provide modern analogs for 32 other prehistoric event beds. Two intervals of heightened frequency of event bed deposition between 1400 and 1675 C.E. (10 events) and 150 and 1150 C.E. (23 events), represent the local expression of coherent regional patterns in intense-hurricane-induced event beds. Our synthesis indicates that much of the western North Atlantic appears to have been active between 250 and 1150 C.E., with high levels of activity persisting in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico until 1400 C.E. This interval was one with relatively warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the main development region (MDR). A shift in activity to the North American east coast occurred ca. 1400 C.E., with more frequent severe hurricane strikes recorded from The Bahamas to New England between 1400 and 1675 C.E. A warm SST anomaly along the western North Atlantic, rather than within the MDR, likely contributed to the later active interval being restricted to the east coast.

  20. Predicting the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association claim payout of commercial buildings from Hurricane Ike

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Kim

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there currently is no comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses associated with individual buildings. To address this lack of research, this study will identify vulnerabilities and hurricane indicators, develop metrics to measure the influence of economic losses from hurricanes, and visualize the spatial distribution of vulnerability to evaluate overall hurricane damage. This paper has utilized the Geographic Information System to facilitate collecting and managing data, and has combined vulnerability factors to assess the financial losses suffered by Texas coastal counties. A multiple linear regression method has been applied to develop hurricane economic damage predicting models. To reflect the pecuniary loss, insured loss payment was used as the dependent variable to predict the actual financial damage. Geographical vulnerability indicators, built environment vulnerability indicators, and hurricane indicators were all used as independent variables. Accordingly, the models and findings may possibly provide vital references for government agencies, emergency planners, and insurance companies hoping to predict hurricane damage.

  1. Proposed characterization of tornadoes and hurricanes by area and intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, T. T.

    1971-01-01

    Results of the 1968 through 1970 Tornado Watch Experiment conducted jointly by NASA and NOAA suggested the necessity of characterizing individual tornadoes in order to improve the identity of tornado-producing nephsystems. An attempt was made, therefore, to categorize each tornado by its intensity and area. Fujita-scale wind and corresponding damage categories were devised to classify tornadoes as Gale (F0), Weak (F1), Strong (F2), Severe (F3), Devastating (F4), and Incredible (F5). Additionally, individual tornado areas were also categorized as Trace (TR), Decimicro (DM), Micro (MI), Meso (ME), Marco (MA), Giant (GI), and Decagiant (DG), thus permitting characterizing of a tornado by a combination of intensity and area, such as weak decimicro tornado, severe meso tornado, or incredible giant tornado. A test characterization of 156 Japanese tornadoes in 1950-69 was accomplished for comparison with 893 U.S. tornadoes in 1965. Unexpectedly, the percentage distribution of intensity and individual area of U.S. and Japanese tornadoes is very similar except for large and/or intense ones. Intensity distribution within the Dallas and Fargo tornadoes of 1957 was also studied in detail. It was also found that the F-scale variation along the paths of family tornadoes shows an intensity oscillation with a 45-min interval.

  2. Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

  3. Evacuation of Intensive Care Units During Disaster: Learning From the Hurricane Sandy Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Mary A; Dorfman, Molly V; Einav, Sharon; Niven, Alex S; Kissoon, Niranjan; Grissom, Colin K

    2016-02-01

    Data on best practices for evacuating an intensive care unit (ICU) during a disaster are limited. The impact of Hurricane Sandy on New York City area hospitals provided a unique opportunity to learn from the experience of ICU providers about their preparedness, perspective, roles, and activities. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of nurses, respiratory therapists, and physicians who played direct roles during the Hurricane Sandy ICU evacuations. Sixty-eight health care professionals from 4 evacuating hospitals completed surveys (35% ICU nurses, 21% respiratory therapists, 25% physicians-in-training, and 13% attending physicians). Only 21% had participated in an ICU evacuation drill in the past 2 years and 28% had prior training or real-life experience. Processes were inconsistent for patient prioritization, tracking, transport medications, and transport care. Respondents identified communication (43%) as the key barrier to effective evacuation. The equipment considered most helpful included flashlights (24%), transport sleds (21%), and oxygen tanks and respiratory therapy supplies (19%). An evacuation wish list included walkie-talkies/phones (26%), lighting/electricity (18%), flashlights (10%), and portable ventilators and suction (16%). ICU providers who evacuated critically ill patients during Hurricane Sandy had little prior knowledge of evacuation processes or vertical evacuation experience. The weakest links in the patient evacuation process were communication and the availability of practical tools. Incorporating ICU providers into hospital evacuation planning and training, developing standard evacuation communication processes and tools, and collecting a uniform dataset among all evacuating hospitals could better inform critical care evacuation in the future.

  4. Large-scale Vertical Motions, Intensity Change and Precipitation Associated with Land falling Hurricane Katrina over the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, S. R.; Kwembe, T.; Zhang, Z.

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the possible relationship between the large- scale heat fluxes and intensity change associated with the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. After reaching the category 5 intensity on August 28th , 2005 over the central Gulf of Mexico, Katrina weekend to category 3 before making landfall (August 29th , 2005) on the Louisiana coast with the maximum sustained winds of over 110 knots. We also examined the vertical motions associated with the intensity change of the hurricane. The data for Convective Available Potential Energy for water vapor (CAPE), sea level pressure and wind speed were obtained from the Atmospheric Soundings, and NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC), respectively for the period August 24 to September 3, 2005. We also computed vertical motions using CAPE values. The study showed that the large-scale heat fluxes reached maximum (7960W/m2) with the central pressure 905mb. The Convective Available Potential Energy and the vertical motions peaked 3-5 days before landfall. The large atmospheric vertical motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorm, tornadoes, storm surge and floods Numerical model (WRF/ARW) with data assimilations have been used for this research to investigate the model's performances on hurricane tracks and intensities associated with the hurricane Katrina, which began to strengthen until reaching Category 5 on 28 August 2005. The model was run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 hr periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model output was compared with the observations and is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track associated with hurricane Katrina.

  5. Improving the predictive accuracy of hurricane power outage forecasts using generalized additive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Seung-Ryong; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

    2009-10-01

    Electric power is a critical infrastructure service after hurricanes, and rapid restoration of electric power is important in order to minimize losses in the impacted areas. However, rapid restoration of electric power after a hurricane depends on obtaining the necessary resources, primarily repair crews and materials, before the hurricane makes landfall and then appropriately deploying these resources as soon as possible after the hurricane. This, in turn, depends on having sound estimates of both the overall severity of the storm and the relative risk of power outages in different areas. Past studies have developed statistical, regression-based approaches for estimating the number of power outages in advance of an approaching hurricane. However, these approaches have either not been applicable for future events or have had lower predictive accuracy than desired. This article shows that a different type of regression model, a generalized additive model (GAM), can outperform the types of models used previously. This is done by developing and validating a GAM based on power outage data during past hurricanes in the Gulf Coast region and comparing the results from this model to the previously used generalized linear models.

  6. Impact of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, Thomas R.; Tuleya, Robert E.

    2004-09-01

    Previous studies have found that idealized hurricanes, simulated under warmer, high-CO2 conditions, are more intense and have higher precipitation rates than under present-day conditions. The present study explores the sensitivity of this result to the choice of climate model used to define the CO2-warmed environment and to the choice of convective parameterization used in the nested regional model that simulates the hurricanes. Approximately 1300 five-day idealized simulations are performed using a higher-resolution version of the GFDL hurricane prediction system (grid spacing as fine as 9 km, with 42 levels). All storms were embedded in a uniform 5 m s-1 easterly background flow. The large-scale thermodynamic boundary conditions for the experiments— atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles and SSTs—are derived from nine different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2+) climate models. The CO2-induced SST changes from the global climate models, based on 80-yr linear trends from +1% yr-1 CO2 increase experiments, range from about +0.8° to +2.4°C in the three tropical storm basins studied. Four different moist convection parameterizations are tested in the hurricane model, including the use of no convective parameterization in the highest resolution inner grid. Nearly all combinations of climate model boundary conditions and hurricane model convection schemes show a CO2-induced increase in both storm intensity and near-storm precipitation rates. The aggregate results, averaged across all experiments, indicate a 14% increase in central pressure fall, a 6% increase in maximum surface wind speed, and an 18% increase in average precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm center. The fractional change in precipitation is more sensitive to the choice of convective parameterization than is the fractional change of intensity. Current hurricane potential intensity theories, applied to the climate model environments, yield an average increase of intensity

  7. Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cevahir Kilic

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The influence of sea surface temperature (SST anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east, with increasing (decreasing SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

  8. Hurricane impacts on US forest carbon sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven G. McNulty

    2002-01-01

    Recent focus has been given to US forests as a sink for increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Current estimates of US Forest carbon sequestration average approximately 20 Tg (i.e. 1012 g) year. However, predictions of forest carbon sequestration often do not include the influence of hurricanes on forest carbon storage. Intense hurricanes...

  9. Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

    2011-12-01

    This article compares statistical methods for modeling power outage durations during hurricanes and examines the predictive accuracy of these methods. Being able to make accurate predictions of power outage durations is valuable because the information can be used by utility companies to plan their restoration efforts more efficiently. This information can also help inform customers and public agencies of the expected outage times, enabling better collective response planning, and coordination of restoration efforts for other critical infrastructures that depend on electricity. In the long run, outage duration estimates for future storm scenarios may help utilities and public agencies better allocate risk management resources to balance the disruption from hurricanes with the cost of hardening power systems. We compare the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of five distinct statistical models for estimating power outage duration times caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The methods compared include both regression models (accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models (Cox PH)) and data mining techniques (regression trees, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), and multivariate additive regression splines). We then validate our models against two other hurricanes. Our results indicate that BART yields the best prediction accuracy and that it is possible to predict outage durations with reasonable accuracy. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. The Impact of Microphysics on Intensity and Structure of Hurricanes and Mesoscale Convective Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn J.; Jou, Ben Jong-Dao; Lee, Wen-Chau; Lin, Pay-Liam; Chang, Mei-Yu

    2007-01-01

    During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models, e.g. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation mesoscale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options such as Purdue Lin et al. (1983), WSM 6-class and Thompson microphysics schemes. We have recently implemented three sophisticated cloud microphysics schemes into WRF. The cloud microphysics schemes have been extensively tested and applied for different mesoscale systems in different geographical locations. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics options. We are performing sensitivity tests in using WRF to examine the impact of six different cloud microphysical schemes on precipitation processes associated hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems developed at different geographic locations [Oklahoma (IHOP), Louisiana (Hurricane Katrina), Canada (C3VP - snow events), Washington (fire storm), India (Monsoon), Taiwan (TiMREX - terrain)]. We will determine the microphysical schemes for good simulated convective systems in these geographic locations. We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the physical processes (i.e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems.

  11. Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity using outgoing longwave radiation over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Li, Laifang

    2016-07-01

    Seasonal hurricane activity is a function of the amount of initial disturbances (e.g., easterly waves) and the background environment in which they develop into tropical storms (i.e., the main development region). Focusing on the former, a set of indices based solely upon the meridional structure of satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the African continent are shown to be capable of predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with very high rates of success. Predictions of named storms based on the July OLR field and trained only on the time period prior to the year being predicted yield a success rate of 87%, compared to the success rate of NOAA's August outlooks of 53% over the same period and with the same average uncertainty range (±2). The resulting OLR indices are statistically robust, highly detectable, physically linked to the predictand, and may account for longer-term observed trends.

  12. Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Judi, David R.; Leung, L. Ruby

    2016-06-23

    Coastal populations in the global tropics and sub-tropics are vulnerable to the devastating impacts of hurricane storm surge and this risk is only expected to rise under climate change. In this study, we address this issue for the U.S. Gulf and Florida coasts. Using the framework of Potential Intensity, observations and output from coupled climate models, we show that the future large-scale thermodynamic environment may become more favorable for hurricane intensification. Under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario and for the peak hurricane season months of August–October, we show that the mean intensities of Atlantic hurricanes may increase by 1.8–4.2 % and their lifetime maximum intensities may increase by 2.7–5.3 % when comparing the last two decades of the 20th and 21st centuries. We then combine our estimates of hurricane intensity changes with projections of sea-level rise to understand their relative impacts on future storm surge using simulations with the National Weather Service’s SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model for five historical hurricanes that made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Considering uncertainty in hurricane intensity changes and sea-level rise, our results indicate a median increase in storm surge ranging between 25 and 47 %, with changes in hurricane intensity increasing future storm surge by about 10 % relative to the increase that may result from sea level rise alone, with highly non-linear response of population at risk.

  13. GIS-BASED PREDICTION OF HURRICANE FLOOD INUNDATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    JUDI, DAVID [Los Alamos National Laboratory; KALYANAPU, ALFRED [Los Alamos National Laboratory; MCPHERSON, TIMOTHY [Los Alamos National Laboratory; BERSCHEID, ALAN [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2007-01-17

    A simulation environment is being developed for the prediction and analysis of the inundation consequences for infrastructure systems from extreme flood events. This decision support architecture includes a GIS-based environment for model input development, simulation integration tools for meteorological, hydrologic, and infrastructure system models and damage assessment tools for infrastructure systems. The GIS-based environment processes digital elevation models (30-m from the USGS), land use/cover (30-m NLCD), stream networks from the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) and soils data from the NRCS (STATSGO) to create stream network, subbasins, and cross-section shapefiles for drainage basins selected for analysis. Rainfall predictions are made by a numerical weather model and ingested in gridded format into the simulation environment. Runoff hydrographs are estimated using Green-Ampt infiltration excess runoff prediction and a 1D diffusive wave overland flow routing approach. The hydrographs are fed into the stream network and integrated in a dynamic wave routing module using the EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to predict flood depth. The flood depths are then transformed into inundation maps and exported for damage assessment. Hydrologic/hydraulic results are presented for Tropical Storm Allison.

  14. How study of hurricane swell can help to provide a better prediction of the tsunami wave propagation on Caribbean coasts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorville, Jean-François; Dondin, Frédéric; Cécé, Raphael; Bernard, Didier

    2014-05-01

    Prediction of tsunami wave propagation on a complex bathymetry can be fatal. Do a mistake on the location of the tsunami wave impact on the coast is highly dangerous. The destruction due to mechanical impact or submersion of the large area of the coast zone can be avoid with a good estimation (i.e.; height, location, duration) of the hazard. Features of the propagation are important in term of values but also in term of dynamic, an evacuation plan is directly base on the prediction of the sequence of events. The frequency of large tsunami is low, but the study of real case may help to have a complete comprehension of the process. We would be better prepare for a tsunami if we had more tsunami. Caribbean arc was generated by an intense tectonic motion and volcanic activity. The risk of tsunami is high in the area both generated by tectonic motion and volcanic landslide. The quality of a numerical propagation of tsunami is highly dependent of the quality of the DEM Caribbean coast are impact by large Hurricane wave. The study of those can be helpful in the tsunami study, particularly for the bathymetry effect on large wave. The shape of the both types of wave are not the same, we do not try to do a direct comparison, but used the information of the dispersion of large swell wave to applied it to the tsunami dispersion and fill the lack of information of the bathymetry. We focus on the comparative study of the propagation of tsunami wave generated by submarine volcano land slide and hurricane wave on a small scale bathymetry (10 m, Lito 3d). The case of Guadeloupe and Martinique island are detailed in this study, due to the available dataset. We used those two territories as reference area. The numerical propagation of the waves is done with FUNWAVE on two different bathymetry (10 m & 50 m). The tsunami wave was generated by VolcFlow in case of submarine volcano collapse and the swell determine by coupling of WaveWatchIII and SWAN in case of past Hurricane. The

  15. Predicting Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms in Children Following Hurricane Katrina: A Prospective Analysis of the Effect of Parental Distress and Parenting Practices*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Mary Lou; Self-Brown, Shannon; Le, Brenda; Bosson, Julia Vigna; Hernandez, Brittany C.; Gordon, Arlene T.

    2014-01-01

    Research exhibits a robust relation between child hurricane exposure, parent distress, and child posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This study explored parenting practices that could further explicate this association. Participants were 381 mothers and their children exposed to Hurricane Katrina. It was hypothesized that 3–7 months (T1) and 14–17 months (T2) post-Katrina: (a) hurricane exposure would predict child PTSD symptoms after controlling for history of violence exposure and (b) hurricane exposure would predict parent distress and negative parenting practices, which, in turn, would predict increased child PTSD symptoms. Hypotheses were partially supported. Hurricane exposure directly predicted child PTSD at T1 and indirectly at T2. Additionally, several significant paths emerged from hurricane exposure to parent distress and parenting practices, which were predictive of child PTSD. PMID:20925099

  16. Avifauna response to hurricanes: regional changes in community similarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Anna M. Pidgeon; Thomas P. Albright; Patrick D. Culbert; Murray K. Clayton; Curtis H. Flather; Chengquan Huang; Jeffrey G. Masek; Volker C. Radeloff

    2010-01-01

    Global climate models predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as hurricanes, which may abruptly alter ecological processes in forests and thus affect avian diversity. Developing appropriate conservation measures necessitates identifying patterns of avifauna response to hurricanes. We sought to answer two questions: (1) does...

  17. Impacts of cloud flare-ups on hurricane intensity resulting from departures from balance laws

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. N. Krishnamurti

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Cloud flare-ups along the inner eye wall of a hurricane lead to enhancement of cloud scale divergence, which in turn leads to a large local enhancement of the departure from balance laws and can lead to local supergradient winds. This scenario is tested using the results from a mesoscale microphysical model at horizontal resolution of 1.33 km for the simulation of hurricane Katrina. Rainwater mixing ratio tags growing cloud elements. The departure from balance laws includes terms such as the local, horizontal and vertical advections of divergence, divergence square and a term invoking the gradient of vertical velocity. It is noted that these terms collectively contribute to a substantial local enhancement of the departure from balance laws. Departures from balance laws are related to the radial gradient wind imbalances in a storm-centred coordinate. In this study, several examples, from the hurricane Katrina simulations, that display this scenario of rapid intensification are illustrated. Organisation of convection in the azimuthal direction seems important for the hurricane scale; cloud flare-ups away from such regions of azimuthal organisation fail to contribute to this scenario for the overall intensification of the hurricane.

  18. Predicting posttraumatic growth among Hurricane Katrina survivors living with HIV: the role of self-efficacy, social support, and PTSD symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieslak, Roman; Benight, Charles; Schmidt, Norine; Luszczynska, Aleksandra; Curtin, Erin; Clark, Rebecca A; Kissinger, Patricia

    2009-07-01

    The study tested the model of adaptation after trauma by Benight and Bandura (2004) indicating that posttraumatic recovery may be predicted directly by coping self-efficacy (CSE) and indirectly by social support. These relations were investigated in the context of posttraumatic growth (PTG) among Hurricane Katrina survivors living with HIV. Additionally, it was hypothesized that among individuals with more intensive Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) symptoms, those with strong CSE would experience the strongest PTG. Cross-sectional data were collected among 90 patients with HIV who reinitiated care at the HIV outpatient clinic. Questionnaires were administered approximately 14 months after the hurricane. Higher CSE was related to higher PTG among the survivors who suffered from more intensive PTSD symptoms. Received social support was directly related to only one index of PTG, relating to others. Furthermore, although there was a significant relationship between social support and CSE, the indirect conditional effect of received social support on PTG was not confirmed. Similar results were obtained across the indices of PTG, controlling for the level of exposure to hurricane-related trauma. Cross-sectional design and convenience character of the sample warrants replications.

  19. Hurricane Sandy and earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    MAVASHEV BORIS; MAVASHEV IGOR

    2013-01-01

    Submit for consideration the connection between formation of a hurricane Sandy and earthquakes. As a rule, weather anomalies precede and accompany earthquakes. The hurricane Sandy emerged 2 days prior to strong earthquakes that occurred in the area. And the trajectory of the hurricane Sandy matched the epicenter of the earthquakes. Possibility of early prediction of natural disasters will minimize the moral and material damage.

  20. Predicting the Storm Surge Threat of Hurricane Sandy with the National Weather Service SLOSH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Forbes

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulations of the storm tide that flooded the US Atlantic coastline during Hurricane Sandy (2012 are carried out using the National Weather Service (NWS Sea Lakes and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH storm surge prediction model to quantify its ability to replicate the height, timing, evolution and extent of the water that was driven ashore by this large, destructive storm. Recent upgrades to the numerical model, including the incorporation of astronomical tides, are described and simulations with and without these upgrades are contrasted to assess their contributions to the increase in forecast accuracy. It is shown, through comprehensive verifications of SLOSH simulation results against peak water surface elevations measured at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA tide gauge stations, by storm surge sensors deployed and hundreds of high water marks collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, that the SLOSH-simulated water levels at 71% (89% of the data measurement locations have less than 20% (30% relative error. The RMS error between observed and modeled peak water levels is 0.47 m. In addition, the model’s extreme computational efficiency enables it to run large, automated ensembles of predictions in real-time to account for the high variability that can occur in tropical cyclone forecasts, thus furnishing a range of values for the predicted storm surge and inundation threat.

  1. Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007). Part 2; Warm Core Formation, Precipitation Evolution, and Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, zhuo; Montgomery M. T.; Dunkerton, T. J.

    2010-01-01

    location of a tropical storm is largely controlled by the parent wave's critical layer, whereas the genesis time and intensity of the protovortex depend on the details of the mesoscale organization, which is less predictable. Some implications of the findings are discussed.

  2. Hurricane Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... English Hurricane Safety Checklist - Arabic Hurricane Safety Checklist - Chinese Hurricane Safety Checklist - French Hurricane Safety Checklist - Haitian ... Cross serves in the US, its territories and military installations around the world. Please try again. Your ...

  3. Improving Hurricane Power Outage Prediction Models Through the Inclusion of Local Environmental Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRoberts, D Brent; Quiring, Steven M; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-10-25

    Tropical cyclones can significantly damage the electrical power system, so an accurate spatiotemporal forecast of outages prior to landfall can help utilities to optimize the power restoration process. The purpose of this article is to enhance the predictive accuracy of the Spatially Generalized Hurricane Outage Prediction Model (SGHOPM) developed by Guikema et al. (2014). In this version of the SGHOPM, we introduce a new two-step prediction procedure and increase the number of predictor variables. The first model step predicts whether or not outages will occur in each location and the second step predicts the number of outages. The SGHOPM environmental variables of Guikema et al. (2014) were limited to the wind characteristics (speed and duration of strong winds) of the tropical cyclones. This version of the model adds elevation, land cover, soil, precipitation, and vegetation characteristics in each location. Our results demonstrate that the use of a new two-step outage prediction model and the inclusion of these additional environmental variables increase the overall accuracy of the SGHOPM by approximately 17%.

  4. Role of health in predicting moves to poor neighborhoods among Hurricane Katrina survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcaya, Mariana C; Subramanian, S V; Rhodes, Jean E; Waters, Mary C

    2014-11-18

    In contrast to a large literature investigating neighborhood effects on health, few studies have examined health as a determinant of neighborhood attainment. However, the sorting of individuals into neighborhoods by health status is a substantively important process for multiple policy sectors. We use prospectively collected data on 569 poor, predominantly African American Hurricane Katrina survivors to examine the extent to which health problems predicted subsequent neighborhood poverty. Our outcome of interest was participants' 2009-2010 census tract poverty rate. Participants were coded as having a health problem at baseline (2003-2004) if they self-reported a diagnosis of asthma, high blood pressure, diabetes, high cholesterol, heart problems, or any other physical health problems not listed, or complained of back pain, migraines, or digestive problems at baseline. Although health problems were not associated with neighborhood poverty at baseline, those with baseline health problems ended up living in higher poverty areas by 2009-2010. Differences persisted after adjustment for personal characteristics, baseline neighborhood poverty, hurricane exposure, and residence in the New Orleans metropolitan area, with baseline health problems predicting a 3.4 percentage point higher neighborhood poverty rate (95% confidence interval: 1.41, 5.47). Results suggest that better health was protective against later neighborhood deprivation in a highly mobile, socially vulnerable population. Researchers should consider reciprocal associations between health and neighborhoods when estimating and interpreting neighborhood effects on health. Understanding whether and how poor health impedes poverty deconcentration efforts may help inform programs and policies designed to help low-income families move to--and stay in--higher opportunity neighborhoods.

  5. Forecasting Hurricane by Satellite Image

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M. Y.

    Earth is an endanger planet. Severe weather, especially hurricanes, results in great disaster all the world. World Meteorology Organization and United Nations Environment Program established intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to offer warnings about the present and future disasters of the Earth. It is the mission for scientists to design warning system to predict the severe weather system and to reduce the damage of the Earth. Hurricanes invade all the world every year and made millions damage to all the people. Scientists in weather service applied satellite images and synoptic data to forecast the information for the next hours for warning purposes. Regularly, hurricane hits on Taiwan island directly will pass through her domain and neighbor within 10 hours. In this study, we are going to demonstrate a tricky hurricane NARI invaded Taiwan on September 16, 2000. She wandered in the neighborhood of the island more than 72 hours and brought heavy rainfall over the island. Her track is so tricky that scientists can not forecast her path using the regular method. Fortunately, all scientists in the Central Weather Bureau paid their best effort to fight against the tricky hurricane. Applying the new developed technique to analysis the satellite images with synoptic data and radar echo, scientists forecasted the track, intensity and rainfall excellently. Thus the damage of the severe weather reduced significantly.

  6. Predicting Mothers' Reports of Children's Mental Health Three Years after Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Sarah R.; Godoy, Leandra; Rhodes, Jean E.; Carter, Alice S.

    2013-01-01

    This study explored pathways through which hurricane-related stressors affected the psychological functioning of elementary school aged children who survived Hurricane Katrina. Participants included 184 mothers from the New Orleans area who completed assessments one year pre-disaster (Time 1), and one and three years post-disaster (Time 2 and Time…

  7. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY...

  8. Hurricane Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanuel, Kerry

    2012-10-01

    Hurricanes provide beautiful examples of many of the key physical processes important in geophysical systems. They are rare natural examples of nearly perfect Carnot heat engines with an interesting wrinkle: They recycle much of their waste heat into the front end of the engine, thereby achieving greater wind speeds than would otherwise be possible. They are driven by surface enthalpy fluxes made possible by the thermodynamic disequilibrium between the earth's surface and atmosphere, a characteristic of radiative equilibrium in the presence of greenhouse gases. Their evolution, structure, and intensity all depend on turbulence near the ocean surface and in the outflow layer of the storm, high up in the atmosphere. In the course of this banquet, I will briefly describe these and other interesting aspects of hurricane physics, and also describe the role these storms have played in human history.

  9. Evacuation of a neonatal intensive care unit in a disaster: lessons from Hurricane Sandy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espiritu, Michael; Patil, Uday; Cruz, Hannaise; Gupta, Arpit; Matterson, Heideh; Kim, Yang; Caprio, Martha; Mally, Pradeep

    2014-12-01

    NICU patients are among those potentially most vulnerable to the effects of natural or man-made disaster on a medical center. The published data on evacuations of NICU patients in the setting of disaster are sparse. In October of 2012, New York University Langone Medical Center was evacuated during Hurricane Sandy in the setting of a power outage secondary to a coastal surge. In this setting, 21 neonates were safely evacuated from the medical center's NICU to receiving hospitals within New York City in a span of 4.5 hours. Using data recorded during the evacuation and from staff debriefings, we describe the challenges faced and lessons learned during both the power outage and vertical evacuation. From our experience, we identify several elements that are important to the functioning of an NICU in a disaster or to an evacuation that may be incorporated into future NICU-focused disaster planning. These include a clear command structure, backups (personnel, communication, medical information, and equipment), establishing situational awareness, regional coordination, and flexibility as well as special attention to families and to the availability of neonatal transport resources.

  10. Prediction of cholera dynamics in Haiti following the passage of Hurricane Matthew

    OpenAIRE

    Camacho, A; Cohuet, S.; Grandesso, F.; Luquero, F; Lynch, E; D. Pasetto; Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Rinaldo, A.

    2016-01-01

    Following the landfall of Hurricane Matthew in Haiti on October 3, 2016, an increase of suspected cholera cases was reported in both the southern part of the island (with Grande-Anse and Le Sud departments reporting 1349 and 1533 cases respectively between 5 October and 6 November) and also in the capital, Port-au-Prince (438 cases reported over the same period). The hurricane caused the displacement of about 175,000 people, the vast majority of which remained in their department of origin; h...

  11. Spatial Analysis of Post-Hurricane Katrina Thermal Pattern and Intensity in Greater New Orleans: Implications for Urban Heat Island Phenomenon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lief, Aram Parrish

    In 2005, Hurricane Katrina's diverse impacts on the Greater New Orleans area included damaged and destroyed trees, and other despoiled vegetation, which also increased the exposure of artificial and bare surfaces, known factors that contribute to the climatic phenomenon known as the urban heat island (UHI). This is an investigation of UHI in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, which entails the analysis of pre and post-hurricane Katrina thermal imagery of the study area, including changes to surface heat patterns and vegetative cover. Imagery from Landsat TM was used to show changes to the pattern and intensity of the UHI effect, caused by an extreme weather event. Using remote sensing visualization methods, in situ data, and local knowledge, the author found there was a measurable change in the pattern and intensity of the New Orleans UHI effect, as well as concomitant changes to vegetative land cover. This finding may be relevant for urban planners and citizens, especially in the context of recovery from a large-scale disaster of a coastal city, regarding future weather events, and other natural and human impacts.

  12. Hurricane Matthew overwash extents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara; Long, Joseph W.; Birchler, Justin; Range, Ginger

    2017-01-01

    The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project exists to understand and predict storm impacts to our nation's coastlines. This data defines the alongshore extent of overwash deposits attributed to coastal processes during Hurricane Matthew.

  13. Geologic effects of hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coch, Nicholas K.

    1994-08-01

    Hurricanes are intense low pressure systems of tropical origin. Hurricane damage results from storm surge, wind, and inland flooding from heavy rainfall. Field observations and remote sensing of recent major hurricanes such as Hugo (1989), Andrew (1992) and Iniki (1992) are providing new insights into the mechanisms producing damage in these major storms. Velocities associated with hurricanes include the counterclockwise vortex winds flowing around the eye and the much slower regional winds that steer hurricane and move it forward. Vectorial addition of theseof these two winds on the higher effective wind speed than on the left side. Coast-parallel hurricane tracks keep the weaker left side of the storm against the coast, whereas coast-normal tracks produce a wide swath of destruction as the more powerful right side of the storm cuts a swath of destruction hundreds of kilometers inland. Storm surge is a function of the wind speed, central pressure, shelf slope, shoreline configuration, and anthropogenic alterations to the shoreline. Maximum surge heights are not under the eye of the hurricane, where the pressure is lowest, but on the right side of the eye at the radius of maximum winds, where the winds are strongest. Flood surge occurs as the hurricane approaches land and drives coastal waters, and superimposed waves, across the shore. Ebb surge occurs when impounded surface water flows seaward as the storm moves inland. Flood and ebb surge damage have been greatly increased in recent hurricanes as a result of anthropogenic changes along the shoreline. Hurricane wind damage occurs on three scales — megascale, mesoscale and microscale. Local wind damage is a function of wind speed, exposure and structural resistance to velocity pressure, wind drag and flying debris. Localized extreme damage is caused by gusts that can locally exceed sustained winds by a factor of two in areas where there is strong convective activity. Geologic changes occuring in hurricanes

  14. Hurricane Imaging Radiometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecil, Daniel J.; Biswas, Sayak K.; James, Mark W.; Roberts, J. Brent; Jones, W. Linwood; Johnson, James; Farrar, Spencer; Sahawneh, Saleem; Ruf, Christopher S.; Morris, Mary; hide

    2014-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a synthetic thinned array passive microwave radiometer designed to allow retrieval of surface wind speed in hurricanes, up through category five intensity. The retrieval technology follows the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which measures surface wind speed in hurricanes along a narrow strip beneath the aircraft. HIRAD maps wind speeds in a swath below the aircraft, about 50-60 km wide when flown in the lower stratosphere. HIRAD has flown in the NASA Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment in 2010 on a WB-57 aircraft, and on a Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) in 2012 and 2013 as part of NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) program. The GRIP program included flights over Hurricanes Earl and Karl (2010). The 2012 HS3 deployment did not include any hurricane flights for the UAS carrying HIRAD. The 2013 HS3 flights included one flight over the predecessor to TS Gabrielle, and one flight over Hurricane Ingrid. This presentation will describe the HIRAD instrument, its results from the 2010 and 2013 flights, and potential future developments.

  15. Atlantic Hurricane Activity: 1851-1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsea, C. W.

    2001-12-01

    This presentation reports on the second year's work of a three year project to re-analyze the North Atlantic hurricane database (or HURDAT). The original database of six-hourly positions and intensities were put together in the 1960s in support of the Apollo space program to help provide statistical track forecast guidance. In the intervening years, this database - which is now freely and easily accessible on the Internet from the National Hurricane Center's (NHC's) Webpage - has been utilized for a wide variety of uses: climatic change studies, seasonal forecasting, risk assessment for county emergency managers, analysis of potential losses for insurance and business interests, intensity forecasting techniques and verification of official and various model predictions of track and intensity. Unfortunately, HURDAT was not designed with all of these uses in mind when it was first put together and not all of them may be appropriate given its original motivation. One problem with HURDAT is that there are numerous systematic as sell as some random errors in the database which need correction. Additionally, analysis techniques have changed over the years at NHC as our understanding of tropical cyclones has developed, leading to biases in the historical database that have not been addressed. Another difficulty in applying the hurricane database to studies concerned with landfalling events is the lack exact location, time and intensity at hurricane landfall. Finally, recent efforts into uncovering undocumented historical hurricanes in the late 1800s and early 1900s led by Jose Fernandez-Partagas have greatly increased our knowledge of these past events, which are not yet incorporated into the HURDAT database. Because of all of these issues, a re-analysis of the Atlantic hurricane database is being attempted that will be completed in three years. As part of the re-analyses, three files will be made available: {* } The revised Atlantic HURDAT (with six hourly intensities

  16. Improved hurricane forecasting from a variational bogus and ozone data assimilation (BODA) scheme: case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yin; Zhang, Wei

    2016-12-01

    This study develops a proper way to incorporate Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) ozone data into the bogus data assimilation (BDA) initialization scheme for improving hurricane prediction. First, the observation operator at some model levels with the highest correlation coefficients is established to assimilate AIRS ozone data based on the correlation between total column ozone and potential vorticity (PV) ranging from 400 to 50 hPa level. Second, AIRS ozone data act as an augmentation to a BDA procedure using a four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system. Case studies of several hurricanes are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the bogus and ozone data assimilation (BODA) scheme. The statistical result indicates that assimilating AIRS ozone data at 4, 5, or 6 model levels can produce a significant improvement in hurricane track and intensity prediction, with reasonable computation time for the hurricane initialization. Moreover, a detailed analysis of how BODA scheme affects hurricane prediction is conducted for Hurricane Earl (2010). It is found that the new scheme developed in this study generates significant adjustments in the initial conditions (ICs) from the lower levels to the upper levels, compared with the BDA scheme. With the BODA scheme, hurricane development is found to be much more sensitive to the number of ozone data assimilation levels. In particular, the experiment with the assimilation of AIRS ozone data at proper number of model levels shows great capabilities in reproducing the intensity and intensity changes of Hurricane Earl, as well as improve the track prediction. These results suggest that AIRS ozone data convey valuable meteorological information in the upper troposphere, which can be assimilated into a numerical model to improve hurricane initialization when the low-level bogus data are included.

  17. Hurricane intensification along United States coast suppressed during active hurricane periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossin, James P

    2017-01-19

    The North Atlantic ocean/atmosphere environment exhibits pronounced interdecadal variability that is known to strongly modulate Atlantic hurricane activity. Variability in sea surface temperature (SST) is correlated with hurricane variability through its relationship with the genesis and thermodynamic potential intensity of hurricanes. Another key factor that governs the genesis and intensity of hurricanes is ambient environmental vertical wind shear (VWS). Warmer SSTs generally correlate with more frequent genesis and greater potential intensity, while VWS inhibits genesis and prevents any hurricanes that do form from reaching their potential intensity. When averaged over the main hurricane-development region in the Atlantic, SST and VWS co-vary inversely, so that the two factors act in concert to either enhance or inhibit basin-wide hurricane activity. Here I show, however, that conditions conducive to greater basin-wide Atlantic hurricane activity occur together with conditions for more probable weakening of hurricanes near the United States coast. Thus, the VWS and SST form a protective barrier along the United States coast during periods of heightened basin-wide hurricane activity. Conversely, during the most-recent period of basin-wide quiescence, hurricanes (and particularly major hurricanes) near the United States coast, although substantially less frequent, exhibited much greater variability in their rate of intensification, and were much more likely to intensify rapidly. Such heightened variability poses greater challenges to operational forecasting and, consequently, greater coastal risk during hurricane events.

  18. Hurricane intensification along United States coast suppressed during active hurricane periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossin, James P.

    2017-01-01

    The North Atlantic ocean/atmosphere environment exhibits pronounced interdecadal variability that is known to strongly modulate Atlantic hurricane activity. Variability in sea surface temperature (SST) is correlated with hurricane variability through its relationship with the genesis and thermodynamic potential intensity of hurricanes. Another key factor that governs the genesis and intensity of hurricanes is ambient environmental vertical wind shear (VWS). Warmer SSTs generally correlate with more frequent genesis and greater potential intensity, while VWS inhibits genesis and prevents any hurricanes that do form from reaching their potential intensity. When averaged over the main hurricane-development region in the Atlantic, SST and VWS co-vary inversely, so that the two factors act in concert to either enhance or inhibit basin-wide hurricane activity. Here I show, however, that conditions conducive to greater basin-wide Atlantic hurricane activity occur together with conditions for more probable weakening of hurricanes near the United States coast. Thus, the VWS and SST form a protective barrier along the United States coast during periods of heightened basin-wide hurricane activity. Conversely, during the most-recent period of basin-wide quiescence, hurricanes (and particularly major hurricanes) near the United States coast, although substantially less frequent, exhibited much greater variability in their rate of intensification, and were much more likely to intensify rapidly. Such heightened variability poses greater challenges to operational forecasting and, consequently, greater coastal risk during hurricane events.

  19. Estimating tsunami inundation from hurricane storm surge predictions along the U.S. gulf coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pampell-Manis, Alyssa; Horrillo, Juan; Figlus, Jens

    2016-08-01

    Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coasts have been included in the U.S. Tsunami Warning System since 2005. While the tsunami risk for the GOM is low, tsunamis generated by local submarine landslides pose the greatest potential threat, as evidenced by several large ancient submarine mass failures identified in the northern GOM basin. Given the lack of significant historical tsunami evidence in the GOM, the potential threat of landslide tsunamis in this region is assessed from a worst-case scenario perspective based on a set of events including the large ancient failures and most likely extreme events determined by a probabilistic approach. Since tsunamis are not well-understood along the Gulf Coast, we investigate tsunami inundation referenced to category-specific hurricane storm surge levels, which are relatively well established along the Gulf Coast, in order to provide information for assessing the potential threat of tsunamis which is more understandable and accessible to emergency managers. Based on tsunami inundation studies prepared for the communities of South Padre Island, TX, Galveston, TX, Mobile, AL, Panama City, FL, and Tampa, FL, we identify regional trends of tsunami inundation in terms of modeled storm surge inundation. The general trends indicate that tsunami inundation can well exceed the level of storm surge from major hurricanes in open beachfront and barrier island regions, while more interior areas are less threatened. Such information can be used to better prepare for tsunami events as well as provide a preliminary estimate of tsunami hazard in locations where detailed tsunami inundation studies have not been completed.

  20. Examination of Hurricane Sandy's (2012 structure and intensity evolution from full-field and anomaly-field analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Hong Qian

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available An anomaly-based field analysis approach and a set of simple beta-advection models (BAMs have been used to examine the structure evolution and unusual left turn of Hurricane Sandy (2012 before it made the landfall and caused severe damage along the eastern US coast. Results show that the anomaly-based analysis approach can clearly reveal Sandy's structure evolution, including its interaction with other synoptic-scale systems as well as the intensification and extratropical transition (ET processes. During its lifetime, Sandy experienced two consecutive periods of intensification caused by the merging of anomalous vortices on 27 and 29 October. The unusual left turn and the ET process prior to the landfall are respectively influenced by an anomalous anticyclone to the northeast and an anomalous cold vortex at the 300–850 hPa layer to the northwest, which is confirmed by the experiments using the generalised BAM.

  1. Ocean Observing Public-Private Collaboration to Improve Tropical Storm and Hurricane Predictions in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, R.; Leung, P.; McCall, W.; Martin, K. M.; Howden, S. D.; Vandermeulen, R. A.; Kim, H. S. S.; Kirkpatrick, B. A.; Watson, S.; Smith, W.

    2016-02-01

    In 2008, Shell partnered with NOAA to explore opportunities for improving storm predictions in the Gulf of Mexico. Since, the collaboration has grown to include partners from Shell, NOAA National Data Buoy Center and National Center for Environmental Information, National Center for Environmental Prediction, University of Southern Mississippi, and the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System. The partnership leverages complementary strengths of each collaborator to build a comprehensive and sustainable monitoring and data program to expand observing capacity and protect offshore assets and Gulf communities from storms and hurricanes. The program combines in situ and autonomous platforms with remote sensing and numerical modeling. Here we focus on profiling gliders and the benefits of a public-private partnership model for expanding regional ocean observing capacity. Shallow and deep gliders measure ocean temperature to derive ocean heat content (OHC), along with salinity, dissolved oxygen, fluorescence, and CDOM, in the central and eastern Gulf shelf and offshore. Since 2012, gliders have collected 4500+ vertical profiles and surveyed 5000+ nautical miles. Adaptive sampling and mission coordination with NCEP modelers provides specific datasets to assimilate into EMC's coupled HYCOM-HWRF model and 'connect-the-dots' between well-established Eulerian metocean measurements by obtaining (and validating) data between fixed stations (e.g. platform and buoy ADCPs) . Adaptive sampling combined with remote sensing provides satellite-derived OHC validation and the ability to sample productive coastal waters advected offshore by the Loop Current. Tracking coastal waters with remote sensing provides another verification of estimate Loop Current and eddy boundaries, as well as quantifying productivity and analyzing water quality on the Gulf coast, shelf break and offshore. Incorporating gliders demonstrates their value as tools to better protect offshore oil and gas assets

  2. Hurricane Season

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JENNIFER; JETT

    2008-01-01

    Three years after Katrina,the United States isdetermined not to repeatits mistakes This year has seen an unusually activeand deadly hurricane season, asstorms line up in the Atlantic Oceanto pummel the Caribbean and UnitedStates coastline.

  3. Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Wind Speed Retrieval Assessment with Dropsondes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecil, Daniel J.; Biswas, Sayak K.

    2017-01-01

    Map surface wind speed over wide swath (approximately 50-60 km, for aircraft greater than FL600) in hurricanes. Provide research data for understanding hurricane structure, and intensity change. Enable improved forecasts, warnings, and decision support.

  4. Nonlinear interaction of axisymmetric circulation and nonaxisymmetric disturbances in hurricanes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LUO Zhexian

    2004-01-01

    The nonlinear interaction of axisymmetric circulation and nonaxisymmetric disturbances in hurricanes is numerically studied with a quasigeostrophic barotropic model of a higher resolution. It is pointed out that the interaction may be divided into two categories. In the first category, nonaxisymmetric disturbances decay, the coordinate locus of maximum relative vorticity ζmax is seemingly unordered, and the central pressure of hurricane rises; while in the second one, nonaxisymmetric disturbances develop, the locus of ζmax shows an ordered limit cycle pattern, and the central pressure falls remarkably. A succinct criterion is given to judge which category the interaction belongs to, i.e. the vortex beta Rossby number at the initial time Rβ 1 to the developing one. Finally, practical applications of theoretical results of the rotational adaptation process presented by Zeng and numerical results in this paper to the hurricane intensity prediction in China are also discussed.

  5. The Challenge of Predicting the Occurrence of Intense Storms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Nandita Srivastava

    2006-06-01

    Geomagnetic super-storms of October and November 2003 are compared in order to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. Although these super-storms (DST < -300 nT) are associated with high speed CMEs, their DST indices show large variation. The most intense storm of November 20, 2003 (DST ∼ -472 nT) had its source in a comparatively small active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare, while the others had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. An attempt has been made to implement a logistic regression model for the prediction of the occurrence of intense/super-intense geomagnetic storms. The model parameters (regression coefficients) were estimated from a training data-set extracted from a data-set of 64 geo-effective CMEs observed during 1996–2002. The results indicate that logistic regression models can be effectively used for predicting the occurrence of major geomagnetic storms from a set of solar and interplanetary factors. The model validation shows that 100% of the intense storms (-200 nT < DST < -100 nT) and only 50% of the super-intense (DST < -200 nT) storms could be correctly predicted.

  6. Efficacy beliefs predict collaborative practice among intensive care unit nurses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Blanc, Pascale M.; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.; Salanova, Marisa; Llorens, Susana; Nap, Raoul E.

    2010-01-01

    P>Aim. This paper is a report of an investigation of whether intensive care nurses' efficacy beliefs predict future collaborative practice, and to test the potential mediating role of team commitment in this relationship. Background. Recent empirical studies in the field of work and organizational p

  7. Numerical modeling of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and potential future hurricanes on spatial patterns of salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongqing; Chen, Qin; Hu, Kelin; Snedden, Gregg A.; Hartig, Ellen K.; Couvillion, Brady R.; Johnson, Cody L.; Orton, Philip M.

    2017-03-29

    model was run to predict the effects of Sandy-like and Irene-like hurricanes with different storm tracks and wind intensities on wetland morphology in Jamaica Bay. Model results indicate that, in Jamaica Bay salt marshes, the morphological changes (greater than 5 millimeters [mm] determined by the long-term marsh accretion rate) caused by Hurricane Sandy were complex and spatially heterogeneous. Most of the erosion (5–40 mm) and deposition (5–30 mm) were mainly characterized by fine sand for channels and bay bottoms and by mud for marsh areas. Hurricane Sandy-generated deposition and erosion were generated locally. The storm-induced net sediment input through Rockaway Inlet was only about 1 percent of the total amount of the sediment reworked by the hurricane. Salt marshes inside the western part of the bay showed erosion overall while marshes inside the eastern part showed deposition from Hurricane Sandy. Model results indicated that most of the marshes could recover from Hurricane Sandy-induced erosion after 1 year and demonstrated continued marsh accretion after the hurricane over the course of long simulation periods although the effect (accretion) was diminished. Local waves and currents generated by Hurricane Sandy appeared to play a critical role in sediment transport and associated wetland morphological change in Jamaica Bay. Hypothetical hurricanes, depending on their track and intensity, cause variable responses in spatial patterns of sediment deposition and erosion compared to simulations without the hurricane. In general, hurricanes passing west of the Jamaica Bay estuary appear to be more destructive to the salt marshes than those passing the east. Consequently, marshes inside the western part of the bay were likely to be more vulnerable to hurricanes than marshes inside the eastern part of the bay. 

  8. Hurricane Footprints in Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco J. Tapiador

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the identification of hurricanes in low-resolution global climate models (GCM. As hurricanes are not fully resolvable at the coarse resolution of the GCMs (typically 2.5 × 2.5 deg, indirect methods such as analyzing the environmental conditions favoring hurricane formation have to be sought. Nonetheless, the dynamical cores of the models have limitations in simulating hurricane formation, which is a far from fully understood process. Here, it is shown that variations in the specific entropy rather than in dynamical variables can be used as a proxy of the hurricane intensity as estimated by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE. The main application of this research is to ascertain the changes in the hurricane frequency and intensity in future climates.

  9. Recent development of the earthquake strong motion-intensity catalog and intensity prediction equations for Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zare, Mehdi

    2016-12-01

    This study aims to develop a new earthquake strong motion-intensity catalog as well as intensity prediction equations for Iran based on the available data. For this purpose, all the sites which had both recorded strong motion and intensity values throughout the region were first searched. Then, the data belonging to the 306 identified sites were processed, and the results were compiled as a new strong motion-intensity catalog. Based on this new catalog, two empirical equations between the values of intensity and the ground motion parameters (GMPs) for the Iranian earthquakes were calculated. At the first step, earthquake "intensity" was considered as a function of five independent GMPs including "Log (PHA)," "moment magnitude (MW)," "distance to epicenter," "site type," and "duration," and a multiple stepwise regression was calculated. Regarding the correlations between the parameters and the effectiveness coefficients of the predictors, the Log (PHA) was recognized as the most effective parameter on the earthquake "intensity," while the parameter "site type" was removed from the equations since it was determines as the least significant variable. Then, at the second step, a simple ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was fitted only between the parameters intensity and the Log (PHA) which resulted in more over/underestimated intensity values comparing to the results of the multiple intensity-GMPs regression. However, for rapid response purposes, the simple OLS regression may be more useful comparing to the multiple regression due to its data availability and simplicity. In addition, according to 50 selected earthquakes, an empirical relation between the macroseismic intensity (I0) and MW was developed.

  10. Deaths associated with Hurricane Sandy - October-November 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-24

    On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the northeastern U.S. coastline. Sandy's tropical storm winds stretched over 900 miles (1,440 km), causing storm surges and destruction over a larger area than that affected by hurricanes with more intensity but narrower paths. Based on storm surge predictions, mandatory evacuations were ordered on October 28, including for New York City's Evacuation Zone A, the coastal zone at risk for flooding from any hurricane. By October 31, the region had 6-12 inches (15-30 cm) of precipitation, 7-8 million customers without power, approximately 20,000 persons in shelters, and news reports of numerous fatalities (Robert Neurath, CDC, personal communication, 2013). To characterize deaths related to Sandy, CDC analyzed data on 117 hurricane-related deaths captured by American Red Cross (Red Cross) mortality tracking during October 28-November 30, 2012. This report describes the results of that analysis, which found drowning was the most common cause of death related to Sandy, and 45% of drowning deaths occurred in flooded homes in Evacuation Zone A. Drowning is a leading cause of hurricane death but is preventable with advance warning systems and evacuation plans. Emergency plans should ensure that persons receive and comprehend evacuation messages and have the necessary resources to comply with them.

  11. Taming the Hurricane of Acquisition Cost Growth - Or at Least Predicting It

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    the Department of Defense. Despite myriad studies to uncover causes of this cost growth, few of the proposed remedies have made a meaningful impact...Acquisition Cost Growth - Or at Least Predicting It 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e...Nunn-McCurdy breach in a program a good indicator of future threshold breaches ? If we are able to hypothesize a relationship between these top-level

  12. Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Kiju; Shavitt, Sharon; Viswanathan, Madhu; Hilbe, Joseph M

    2014-06-17

    Do people judge hurricane risks in the context of gender-based expectations? We use more than six decades of death rates from US hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes. Laboratory experiments indicate that this is because hurricane names lead to gender-based expectations about severity and this, in turn, guides respondents' preparedness to take protective action. This finding indicates an unfortunate and unintended consequence of the gendered naming of hurricanes, with important implications for policymakers, media practitioners, and the general public concerning hurricane communication and preparedness.

  13. Community College Re-Enrollment after Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Sarah R.; Rhodes, Jean E.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we explored predictors of community college re-enrollment after Hurricane Katrina among a sample of low-income women (N = 221). It was predicted that participants' pre-hurricane educational optimism would predict community college re-enrollment a year after the hurricane. The influence of various demographic and additional resources…

  14. Tropical Cyclone Center Positions from Sequences of HDSS Sondes Deployed along High-Altitude Overpasses of Hurricane Joaquin in 2015, during the ONR Tropical Cyclone Intensity field program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creasey, R.; Elsberry, R. L.; Hendricks, E. A.

    2016-12-01

    A method is developed to calculate the zero wind center (ZWC) position from a sequence of Yankee High Density Sounding System (HDSS) dropwindsondes deployed during a high-altitude overpass of a tropical cyclone. The approach is similar to the Willoughby and Chelmow technique in that it utilizes the intersections of bearings normal to the wind directions across the center to locate the ZWC position. Average wind directions over 1 km layers are calculated from the highly accurate Global Positioning (GPS) lat./long. positions as the HDSS sonde falls from the 60,000 foot flight-level of the NASA WB57 to the ocean surface. An iterative procedure is used to also account for the storm translation, which is necessary to put these high-frequency HDSS observations into a storm-relative coordinate system. The Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI-15) mission into Hurricane Joaquin on 4 October 2015 is examined. The ZWC positions from two center overpasses indicate the vortex tilts from 1 km to 10 km elevation and rotates cyclonically.

  15. Predicting the distribution of intensive poultry farming in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Robinson, Timothy; D'Aietti, Laura; Gilbert, Marius

    2012-03-01

    Intensification of animal production can be an important factor in the emergence of infectious diseases because changes in production structure influence disease transmission patterns. In 2004 and 2005, Thailand was subject to two highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic waves and large surveys were conducted of the poultry sector, providing detailed spatial data on various poultry types. This study analysed these data with the aim of establishing the distributions of extensive and intensive poultry farms, based on the number of birds per holder. Once poultry data were disaggregated into these two production systems, they were analysed in relation to anthropogenic factors using simultaneous autoregressive models. Intensive chicken production was clustered around the capital city of Bangkok and close to the main consumption and export centres. Intensively-raised ducks, mainly free-grazing, showed a distinct pattern with the highest densities distributed in a large area located in the floodplain of the Chao Phraya River. Accessibility to Bangkok, the percentage of irrigated areas and human population density were the most important predictors explaining the geographical distribution of intensively-raised poultry. The distribution of extensive poultry showed a higher predictability. Extensive poultry farms were distributed more homogeneously across the country and their distribution was best predicted by human population density.

  16. Individual actual or perceived property flood risk: did it predict evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in North Carolina, 2003?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horney, Jennifer A; Macdonald, Pia D M; Van Willigen, Marieke; Berke, Philip R; Kaufman, Jay S

    2010-03-01

    Individual perception of risk has consistently been considered an important determinant of hurricane evacuation in published studies and reviews. Adequate risk assessment is informed by environmental and social cues, as well as evacuation intentions and past disaster experience. This cross-sectional study measured perceived flood risk of 570 residents of three coastal North Carolina counties, compared their perception with actual risk determined by updated flood plain maps, and determined if either was associated with evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Census blocks were stratified by flood zone and 30 census blocks were randomly selected from each flood zone. Seven interviews were conducted at random locations within selected blocks. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to produce crude and adjusted risk differences. Neither the designated flood zone of the parcel where the home was located nor the residents' perceived flood risk was associated with evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in the bivariate analysis. In the multivariable analysis, intention to evacuate and home type were important confounders of the association between actual risk and evacuation. The belief that one is at high risk of property damage or injury is important in evacuation decision making. However, in this study, while coastal residents' perceived risk of flooding was correlated with their actual flood risk, neither was associated with evacuation. These findings provide important opportunities for education and intervention by policymakers and authorities to improve hurricane evacuation rates and raise flood risk awareness.

  17. Hurricane Resource Reel

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This Reel Includes the Following Sections TRT 50:10 Hurricane Overviews 1:02; Hurricane Arthur 15:07; Cyclone Pam 19:48; Typhoon Hagupit 21:27; Hurricane Bertha...

  18. Hurricane Evacuation Routes

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Hurricane Evacuation Routes in the United States A hurricane evacuation route is a designated route used to direct traffic inland in case of a hurricane threat. This...

  19. Evaluation of Physically-based Model’s Predictive Skill for Hurricane-triggered Landslides: Case Study in North Carolina and Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Z.; Hong, Y.; Fukuoka, H.; Sassa, K.

    2009-12-01

    The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically-based, slope-stability models that simulate the dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrain. In the first study we quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal predictability of a Matlab version of TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis) in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Macon County, North Carolina where Hurricane Ivan triggered widespread landslides in September, 2004. A high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (6-meter LiDAR), USGS STATSGO soil database, and NOAA/NWS combined radar and gauge precipitation are used as inputs to the model. A local landslide inventory database from the North Carolina Department of Transportation is used to evaluate the model’s predictive skill for the landslide locations and timing over a 30-hour period of Hurricane Ivan’s passage. This study shows that TRIGRS demonstrates acceptable skill for landslide occurrences within a 120-meter radius. Real-time predictions with this model offer the potential to serve as a landslide warning system in areas where accurate rainfall forecasts and detailed field data are available. In the second study, a prototype early warning system has been developed to predict typhoon-induced shallow landslides over Java Island, Indonesia. The system utilizes a newly developed physically-based model that accounts for the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex catchments. geomorphological data are primarily based on a 30-meter ASTER DEM and 1-km soil maps, where precipitation forcing comes from satellite-based TRMM nowcasts and Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) forecasts. Model performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory, and it shows potential for predicting future typhoon-triggered landslides.

  20. An Integrated Ensemble-Based Operational Framework to Predict Urban Flooding: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, F.; Ramaswamy, V.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A. F.; Wang, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Advances in computational resources and modeling techniques are opening the path to effectively integrate existing complex models. In the context of flood prediction, recent extreme events have demonstrated the importance of integrating components of the hydrosystem to better represent the interactions amongst different physical processes and phenomena. As such, there is a pressing need to develop holistic and cross-disciplinary modeling frameworks that effectively integrate existing models and better represent the operative dynamics. This work presents a novel Hydrologic-Hydraulic-Hydrodynamic Ensemble (H3E) flood prediction framework that operationally integrates existing predictive models representing coastal (New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System, NYHOPS), hydrologic (US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Modeling System, HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (2-dimensional River Analysis System, HEC-RAS) components. The state-of-the-art framework is forced with 125 ensemble meteorological inputs from numerical weather prediction models including the Global Ensemble Forecast System, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) and the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM). The framework produces, within a 96-hour forecast horizon, on-the-fly Google Earth flood maps that provide critical information for decision makers and emergency preparedness managers. The utility of the framework was demonstrated by retrospectively forecasting an extreme flood event, hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack watersheds (New Jersey, USA). Hurricane Sandy caused significant damage to a number of critical facilities in this area including the New Jersey Transit's main storage and maintenance facility. The results of this work demonstrate that ensemble based frameworks provide improved flood predictions and useful information about associated uncertainties, thus

  1. Prediction of UV and ESI-MS signal intensities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauser, Harald; Roche, Olivier; Stahl, Martin; Müller, Stephan

    2005-01-01

    All major pharmaceutical companies maintain large collections of compounds that are used either for screening against biological targets or as synthetic precursors. The quality assessment of these compounds is typically done by liquid chromatography combined with mass spectroscopy (LC/MS) and UV purity control. To facilitate the analysis of the analytical data, we have built computational models to predict UV and MS signal intensities under experimental LC/MS conditions. The discriminant partial-least-squares technique was used for classifying compounds into those most likely to yield a MS signal and others where the signal is below the detection limit (94% and 88% correct predictions, respectively). In the case of UV prediction, we compared this statistical linear-regression technique to a knowledge-based approach. A combination of both techniques proved to be the most reliable (96/98% correct predictions of UV-active/ UV-inactive compounds). Both models have been incorporated into the automated compound integrity profiling at F. Hoffmann-La Roche.

  2. A comparison of HWRF, ARW and NMM models in Hurricane Katrina (2005) simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodla, Venkata B; Desamsetti, Srinivas; Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu

    2011-06-01

    The life cycle of Hurricane Katrina (2005) was simulated using three different modeling systems of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. These are, HWRF (Hurricane WRF) designed specifically for hurricane studies and WRF model with two different dynamic cores as the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The WRF model was developed and sourced from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), incorporating the advances in atmospheric simulation system suitable for a broad range of applications. The HWRF modeling system was developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) based on the NMM dynamic core and the physical parameterization schemes specially designed for tropics. A case study of Hurricane Katrina was chosen as it is one of the intense hurricanes that caused severe destruction along the Gulf Coast from central Florida to Texas. ARW, NMM and HWRF models were designed to have two-way interactive nested domains with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The three different models used in this study were integrated for three days starting from 0000 UTC of 27 August 2005 to capture the landfall of hurricane Katrina on 29 August. The initial and time varying lateral boundary conditions were taken from NCEP global FNL (final analysis) data available at 1 degree resolution for ARW and NMM models and from NCEP GFS data at 0.5 degree resolution for HWRF model. The results show that the models simulated the intensification of Hurricane Katrina and the landfall on 29 August 2005 agreeing with the observations. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over ARW and NMM models in predicting the track and intensification of Hurricane Katrina.

  3. A Comparison of HWRF, ARW and NMM Models in Hurricane Katrina (2005 Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anjaneyulu Yerramilli

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The life cycle of Hurricane Katrina (2005 was simulated using three different modeling systems of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF mesoscale model. These are, HWRF (Hurricane WRF designed specifically for hurricane studies and WRF model with two different dynamic cores as the Advanced Research WRF (ARW model and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM. The WRF model was developed and sourced from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, incorporating the advances in atmospheric simulation system suitable for a broad range of applications. The HWRF modeling system was developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP based on the NMM dynamic core and the physical parameterization schemes specially designed for tropics. A case study of Hurricane Katrina was chosen as it is one of the intense hurricanes that caused severe destruction along the Gulf Coast from central Florida to Texas. ARW, NMM and HWRF models were designed to have two-way interactive nested domains with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The three different models used in this study were integrated for three days starting from 0000 UTC of 27 August 2005 to capture the landfall of hurricane Katrina on 29 August. The initial and time varying lateral boundary conditions were taken from NCEP global FNL (final analysis data available at 1 degree resolution for ARW and NMM models and from NCEP GFS data at 0.5 degree resolution for HWRF model. The results show that the models simulated the intensification of Hurricane Katrina and the landfall on 29 August 2005 agreeing with the observations. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over ARW and NMM models in predicting the track and intensification of Hurricane Katrina.

  4. Identification of Caribbean basin hurricanes from Spanish documentary sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Herrera, R. [Depto. Fisica de la Tierra II, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Gimeno, L. [Universidad de Vigo, Ourense (Spain); Ribera, P.; Gonzalez, E.; Fernandez, G. [Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla (Spain); Hernandez, E. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (Spain)

    2007-07-15

    This paper analyses five hurricanes that occurred in the period 1600 to 1800. These examples were identified during a systematic search in the General Archive of the Indies (AGI) in Seville. The research combined the expertise of climatologists and historians in order to optimise the search and analysis strategies. Results demonstrate the potential of this archive for the assessment of hurricanes in this period and show some of the difficulties involved in the collection of evidence of hurricane activity. The documents provide detailed descriptions of a hurricane's impacts and allow us to identify previously unreported hurricanes, obtain more precise dates for hurricanes previously identified, better define the area affected by a given hurricane and, finally, better assess a hurricane's intensity.

  5. Genesis of tornadoes associated with hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentry, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    The climatological history of hurricane-tornadoes is brought up to date through 1982. Most of the tornadoes either form near the center of the hurricane, from the outer edge of the eyewall outward, or in an area between north and east-southeast of the hurricane center. The blackbody temperatures of the cloud tops which were analyzed for several hurricane-tornadoes that formed in the years 1974, 1975, and 1979, did not furnish strong precursor signals of tornado formation, but followed one of two patterns: either the temperatures were very low, or the tornado formed in areas of strong temperature gradients. Tornadoes with tropical cyclones most frequently occur at 1200-1800 LST, and although most are relatively weak, they can reach the F3 intensity level. Most form in association with the outer rainbands of the hurricane.

  6. The effect of proximity to hurricanes Katrina and Rita on subsequent hurricane outlook and optimistic bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbo, Craig; Lueck, Michelle; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori

    2011-12-01

    This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was hypothesized that hurricane outlook and optimistic bias for hurricane risk would be associated positively with distance from the Katrina-Rita landfall (more optimism at greater distance), controlling for historically based hurricane risk and county population density, demographics, individual hurricane experience, and dispositional optimism. Data were collected in January 2006 through a mail survey sent to 1,375 households in 41 counties on the coast (n = 824, 60% response). The analysis used hierarchal regression to test hypotheses. Hurricane history and population density had no effect on outlook; individuals who were male, older, and with higher household incomes were associated with lower risk perception; individual hurricane experience and personal impacts from Katrina and Rita predicted greater risk perception; greater dispositional optimism predicted more optimistic outlook; distance had a small effect but predicted less optimistic outlook at greater distance (model R(2) = 0.21). The model for optimistic bias had fewer effects: age and community tenure were significant; dispositional optimism had a positive effect on optimistic bias; distance variables were not significant (model R(2) = 0.05). The study shows that an existing measure of hurricane outlook has utility, hurricane outlook appears to be a unique concept from hurricane optimistic bias, and proximity has at most small effects. Future extension of this research will include improved conceptualization and measurement of hurricane risk perception and will bring to focus several concepts involving risk communication. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Atlantic hurricane response to geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, John; Grinsted, Aslak; Ji, Duoying; Yu, Xiaoyong; Guo, Xiaoran

    2015-04-01

    Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase - perhaps by a factor of 5 for a 2°C mean global warming. Geoengineering by sulphate aerosol injection preferentially cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 6 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. We find that although temperatures are ameliorated by geoengineering, the numbers of storm surge events as big as that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are only slightly reduced compared with no geoengineering. As higher levels of sulphate aerosol injection produce diminishing returns in terms of cooling, but cause undesirable effects in various regions, it seems that stratospheric aerosol geoengineering is not an effective method of controlling hurricane damage.

  8. Readmission to medical intensive care units: risk factors and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Yong Suk; Lee, Yeon Joo; Park, Jong Sun; Yoon, Ho Il; Lee, Jae Ho; Lee, Choon-Taek; Cho, Young-Jae

    2015-03-01

    The objectives of this study were to find factors related to medical intensive care unit (ICU) readmission and to develop a prediction index for determining patients who are likely to be readmitted to medical ICUs. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 343 consecutive patients who were admitted to the medical ICU of a single medical center from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2012. We analyzed a broad range of patients' characteristics on the day of admission, extubation, and discharge from the ICU. Of the 343 patients discharged from the ICU alive, 33 (9.6%) were readmitted to the ICU unexpectedly. Using logistic regression analysis, the verified factors associated with increased risk of ICU readmission were male sex [odds ratio (OR) 3.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-8.48], history of diabetes mellitus (OR 3.03, 95% CI 1.29-7.09), application of continuous renal replacement therapy during ICU stay (OR 2.78, 95% CI 0.85-9.09), white blood cell count on the day of extubation (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.21), and heart rate just before ICU discharge (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06). We established a prediction index for ICU readmission using the five verified risk factors (area under the curve, 0.76, 95% CI 0.66-0.86). By using specific risk factors associated with increased readmission to the ICU, a numerical index could be established as an estimation tool to predict the risk of ICU readmission.

  9. Achieving Superior Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts by Improving the Assimilation of High-Resolution Satellite Data into Mesoscale Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    Hurricane Sandy with 6-hourly assimilation of retrieved soundings (blue) and radiances (red). UCAR --PI Liu This past year, NCAR’s work was... UCAR is related to a NASA GNSS proposal: “Improving Tropical Prediction and Analysis using COSMIC Radio Occultation Observations and an Ensemble Data

  10. Forecasting OctoberNovember Caribbean hurricane days

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Philip J. Klotzbach

    2011-01-01

      Late season Caribbean hurricane activity is predictable ENSO and the AWP show skill as predictors for OctNov Caribbean activity OctoberNovember Caribbean activity can significantly impact the US...

  11. A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function

    CERN Document Server

    Ehrlich, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The data-driven model presented here carries stark implications for the large increased numbers of hurricanes which it predicts for a warmer world. Moreover, the rise in recent decades in the numbers of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but not the Pacific basin, is shown to have a simple explanation in terms of the specific form of H(z), which yields larger percentage increases when a fixed increase in sea surface temperature occurs at higher latitudes and lower temperatures.

  12. Simulation of hurricane response to suppression of warm rain by sub-micron aerosols

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rosenfeld, D; Khain, A; Lynn, B; Woodley, W. L

    2007-01-01

    ...). The possible impact of seeding of clouds with submicron cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) on hurricane structure and intensity as measured by nearly halving of the area covered by hurricane force winds was simulated by "turning...

  13. 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes poster features high quality satellite images of 15 hurricanes which formed in the Atlantic Basin (includes Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean...

  14. Hurricane Gustav Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Gustav poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Gustav having made landfall along the Louisiana coastline. Poster size is 36"x27"

  15. Hurricane Ike Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Ike poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-15 shows Hurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward Galveston Island, Texas. Poster size is 36"x27".

  16. 2004 Landfalling Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2004 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes poster is a special edition poster which contains two sets of images of Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, created...

  17. 三维变分同化机载雷达资料对飓风预报的影响研究--2012年Isaac试验%A Study of the Impact of Airborne Radar Data Assimilated by 3DVar on the Prediction of Hurricane-Isaac 2012

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陆续; 马旭林; 王旭光

    2015-01-01

    随着气旋内部资料(Inner core data)在热带气旋预报中的使用,其重要性逐渐受到人们越来越多的关注。为了研究该资料中尾部机载雷达(Tail Doppler Radar,TDR)资料在业务系统中的应用效果,本文利用2012年飓风等级热带气旋Isaac期间的TDR资料,采用业务HWRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model for Hurricane)数值模式与业务GSI(Grid-point Statistical Interpolation system)三维变分同化(Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation,3DVar)系统对TDR资料进行了同化,展开了一系列预报试验,并对其效果进行了分析和研究。结果表明与HWRF的业务预报相比,GSI系统同化TDR资料后对热带气旋的路径和强度预报有明显改进;但其同化效果同时也表明业务三维变分中的静态背景误差协方差在TDR资料的应用中仍需要进一步的改进。%Given the increasingly important role of inner-core data in tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, the present paper investigates the impact of assimilating Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data on the prediction of hurricanes. A series of experiments are conducted using the operational Weather Research and Forecasting model for Hurricane (HWRF) and grid-point statistical interpolation (GSI) 3D variational (3DVar) system for Hurricane Isaac (2012). It is found that the assimilation of TDR data can correct the storm center to a better position compared to without TDR assimilation. Furthermore, the better inner-core structures in the results of the experiments that assimilated the TDR data have a positive impact on the intensity forecasts. In general, the TDR data improve the TC track and intensity forecast compared to the official forecasts from the operational HWRF, and the forecasts without assimilating the TDR data. The study also suggests that further reducing the background error covariances to be consistent with the dynamical and thermodynamical structures of the

  18. Hurricane Activity and the Large-Scale Pattern of Spread of an Invasive Plant Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, Ganesh P.; Cronin, James T.

    2014-01-01

    Disturbances are a primary facilitator of the growth and spread of invasive species. However, the effects of large-scale disturbances, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, on the broad geographic patterns of invasive species growth and spread have not been investigated. We used historical aerial imagery to determine the growth rate of invasive Phragmites australis patches in wetlands along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These were relatively undisturbed wetlands where P. australis had room for unrestricted growth. Over the past several decades, invasive P. australis stands expanded in size by 6–35% per year. Based on tropical storm and hurricane activity over that same time period, we found that the frequency of hurricane-force winds explained 81% of the variation in P. australis growth over this broad geographic range. The expansion of P. australis stands was strongly and positively correlated with hurricane frequency. In light of the many climatic models that predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes over the next century, these results suggest a strong link between climate change and species invasion and a challenging future ahead for the management of invasive species. PMID:24878928

  19. Hurricane activity and the large-scale pattern of spread of an invasive plant species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, Ganesh P; Cronin, James T

    2014-01-01

    Disturbances are a primary facilitator of the growth and spread of invasive species. However, the effects of large-scale disturbances, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, on the broad geographic patterns of invasive species growth and spread have not been investigated. We used historical aerial imagery to determine the growth rate of invasive Phragmites australis patches in wetlands along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These were relatively undisturbed wetlands where P. australis had room for unrestricted growth. Over the past several decades, invasive P. australis stands expanded in size by 6-35% per year. Based on tropical storm and hurricane activity over that same time period, we found that the frequency of hurricane-force winds explained 81% of the variation in P. australis growth over this broad geographic range. The expansion of P. australis stands was strongly and positively correlated with hurricane frequency. In light of the many climatic models that predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes over the next century, these results suggest a strong link between climate change and species invasion and a challenging future ahead for the management of invasive species.

  20. Tsunamis and Hurricanes A Mathematical Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Cap, Ferdinand

    2006-01-01

    Tsunamis and hurricanes have had a devastating impact on the population living near the coast during the year 2005. The calculation of the power and intensity of tsunamis and hurricanes are of great importance not only for engineers and meteorologists but also for governments and insurance companies. This book presents new research on the mathematical description of tsunamis and hurricanes. A combination of old and new approaches allows to derive a nonlinear partial differential equation of fifth order describing the steepening up and the propagation of tsunamis. The description includes dissipative terms and does not contain singularities or two valued functions. The equivalence principle of solutions of nonlinear large gas dynamics waves and of solutions of water wave equations will be used. An extension of the continuity equation by a source term due to evaporation rates of salt seawater will help to understand hurricanes. Detailed formula, tables and results of the calculations are given.

  1. Fuel for cyclones: How the water vapor budget of a hurricane depends on its motion

    CERN Document Server

    Makarieva, Anastassia M; Nefiodov, Andrei V; Chikunov, Alexander V; Sheil, Douglas; Nobre, Antonio D; Li, Bai-Lian

    2016-01-01

    Tropical cyclones are fueled by water vapor. Here we estimate the oceanic evaporation within an Atlantic hurricane to be less than one sixth of the total moisture flux precipitating over the same area. So how does the hurricane get the remaining water vapor? Our analysis of TRMM rainfall, MERRA atmospheric moisture and hurricane translation velocities suggests that access to water vapor relies on the hurricane's motion -- as it moves through the atmosphere, the hurricane consumes the water vapor it encounters. This depletion of atmospheric moisture by the hurricane leaves a "dry footprint" of suppressed rainfall in its wake. The thermodynamic efficiency of hurricanes -- defined as kinetic energy production divided by total latent heat release associated with the atmospheric moisture supply -- remains several times lower than Carnot efficiency even in the most intense hurricanes. Thus, maximum observed hurricane power cannot be explained by the thermodynamic Carnot limit.

  2. Various scoring systems for predicting mortality in Intensive Care Unit

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-12-07

    Dec 7, 2015 ... characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine a cut‑off value for mortality and .... present study aimed to compare the third generation scoring systems .... Doganay Z. Scoring systems for intensive care unit. In: Şahinoğlu ...

  3. Recovery from PTSD following Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Katie A; Berglund, Patricia; Gruber, Michael J; Kessler, Ronald C; Sampson, Nancy A; Zaslavsky, Alan M

    2011-06-01

    We examined patterns and correlates of speed of recovery of estimated posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among people who developed PTSD in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. A probability sample of prehurricane residents of areas affected by Hurricane Katrina was administered a telephone survey 7-19 months following the hurricane and again 24-27 months posthurricane. The baseline survey assessed PTSD using a validated screening scale and assessed a number of hypothesized predictors of PTSD recovery that included sociodemographics, prehurricane history of psychopathology, hurricane-related stressors, social support, and social competence. Exposure to posthurricane stressors and course of estimated PTSD were assessed in a follow-up interview. An estimated 17.1% of respondents had a history of estimated hurricane-related PTSD at baseline and 29.2% by the follow-up survey. Of the respondents who developed estimated hurricane-related PTSD, 39.0% recovered by the time of the follow-up survey with a mean duration of 16.5 months. Predictors of slow recovery included exposure to a life-threatening situation, hurricane-related housing adversity, and high income. Other sociodemographics, history of psychopathology, social support, social competence, and posthurricane stressors were unrelated to recovery from estimated PTSD. The majority of adults who developed estimated PTSD after Hurricane Katrina did not recover within 18-27 months. Delayed onset was common. Findings document the importance of initial trauma exposure severity in predicting course of illness and suggest that pre- and posttrauma factors typically associated with course of estimated PTSD did not influence recovery following Hurricane Katrina. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  4. The science and politics of forest management in Northern Nicaragua after hurricane Felix (2007)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi Idarraga, Esteban

    This dissertation examines the ecological effects of hurricane Felix (2007) in Northern Nicaragua as well as the socio-political factors that influenced forest management efforts in hurricane impacted locations. Specifically, this research focused on the following questions: first, what were the regional damage patterns caused by hurricane Felix on the forests of Northern Nicaragua? Second, what stand and tree attributes explain observed post-hurricane damage patterns? And, third, why were post-hurricane management efforts unsuccessful? The first dissertation article characterizes the intensity and spatial distribution of forest damage after hurricane Felix using satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor and aerial photographs. Results indicated that Broadleaf forests experienced larger damage (>75% trees blown down) than Pine forest, and that Enhanced Vegetation Index data (EVI), obtained from the MODIS sensor, can adequately depict post-hurricane damage in tropical forests. The agreement between the obtained EVI damage map and the reference data set ranged from 91% in high-damage locations to 85% in low-damage locations, with 86% overall agreement. The second dissertation article describes the relationship between hurricane damage patterns and ecological variables at the local level. Specifically, it characterizes the relationship between tree-and-stand attributes (i.e. DBH, height, density, basal area) and wind damage, using field data. Findings indicate that tree attributes such as DBH and height strongly influenced the amount and type of wind damage and that stand attributes such as maximum canopy height and distance to the hurricane path were also predictive of the amount of damage. Observed differences in damage patterns among broadleaf and pine forests were strongly correlated with the height to diameter ratio (H/D). Field observations showed that while post-hurricane regeneration was abundant in broadleaf

  5. Efficient coordination of swarms of sensor-laden balloons for persistent, in situ, real-time measurement of hurricane development*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bewley, Thomas; Meneghello, Gianluca

    2016-10-01

    Accurate long-term forecasts of the path and intensity of severe hurricanes are imperative to protect property and save lives. Extensive real-time measurements within hurricanes, especially near their core, are essential for supplementing the limited relevant information accessible by satellites in order to improve such forecasts. Current operational methods for obtaining in situ information, such as dropsondes and repeated manned and unmanned aircraft flights over and within hurricanes, are both expensive and limited in duration. In the present work it is demonstrated by numerical experiments how a swarm of robust, inexpensive, buoyancy-controlled, sensor-laden balloons might be deployed and controlled in an energetically efficient, coordinated fashion, for days at a time, to continuously monitor relevant properties (pressure, humidity, temperature, and wind speed) of a hurricane as it develops. Rather than fighting its gale-force winds, the strong and predictable stratification of these winds is leveraged to efficiently disperse the balloons into a favorable time-evolving distribution. An iterative bootstrap approach is envisioned in which (a) sensor balloons are used to help improve the available computational estimate of the uncertain and underresolved flow field of the hurricane and (b) this (imprecise) estimate of the hurricane flow field is leveraged to improve the distribution of the sensor balloons, which then better facilitates (a), etc. The control approach envisioned in this ambitious effort is a combination of (centrally computed) model predictive control for coordination at the largest scales, which is the focus of the present paper, coupled with a feedback control strategy (decentrally computed, on the balloons themselves), for smaller-scale corrections. Our work indicates that, following such an approach, certain target orbits of interest within the hurricane can be continuously sampled by some balloons, while others make repeated sweeps between the

  6. Drag Coefficient and Foam in Hurricane Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golbraikh, E.; Shtemler, Y.

    2016-12-01

    he present study is motivated by recent findings of saturation and even decrease in the drag coefficient (capping) in hurricane conditions, which is accompanied by the production of a foam layer on the ocean surface. As it is difficult to expect at present a comprehensive numerical modeling of the drag coefficient saturation that is followed by wave breaking and foam production, there is no complete confidence and understanding of the saturation phenomenon. Our semi-empirical model is proposed for the estimation of the foam impact on the variation of the effective drag coefficient, Cd , with the reference wind speed U10 in stormy and hurricane conditions. The proposed model treats the efficient air-sea aerodynamic roughness length as a sum of two weighted aerodynamic roughness lengths for the foam-free and foam-covered conditions. On the available optical and radiometric measurements of the fractional foam coverage,αf, combined with direct wind speed measurements in hurricane conditions, which provide the minimum of the effective drag coefficient, Cd for the sea covered with foam. The present model yields Cd10 versus U10 in fair agreement with that evaluated from both open-ocean and laboratory measurements of the vertical variation of mean wind speed in the range of U10 from low to hurricane speeds. The present approach opens opportunities for drag coefficient modeling in hurricane conditions and hurricane intensity estimation by the foam-coverage value using optical and radiometric measurements.

  7. an intense nigerian stock exchange market prediction using logistic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    market for a profit making venture into the stock market [2]. ... and Support Vector Machines (SVM); all in an effort to improve the predictions, and thus, make reasonable indicial pronouncements that can guide the economic growth of a country [3]. .... destroyed the correlation relationship existing between the NSE index and.

  8. Numerical simulation of the rapid intensification of Hurricane Katrina (2005): Sensitivity to boundary layer parameterization schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianjun; Zhang, Feimin; Pu, Zhaoxia

    2017-04-01

    Accurate forecasting of the intensity changes of hurricanes is an important yet challenging problem in numerical weather prediction. The rapid intensification of Hurricane Katrina (2005) before its landfall in the southern US is studied with the Advanced Research version of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model. The sensitivity of numerical simulations to two popular planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and the Yonsei University (YSU) schemes, is investigated. It is found that, compared with the YSU simulation, the simulation with the MYJ scheme produces better track and intensity evolution, better vortex structure, and more accurate landfall time and location. Large discrepancies (e.g., over 10 hPa in simulated minimum sea level pressure) are found between the two simulations during the rapid intensification period. Further diagnosis indicates that stronger surface fluxes and vertical mixing in the PBL from the simulation with the MYJ scheme lead to enhanced air-sea interaction, which helps generate more realistic simulations of the rapid intensification process. Overall, the results from this study suggest that improved representation of surface fluxes and vertical mixing in the PBL is essential for accurate prediction of hurricane intensity changes.

  9. Evaluation of TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis)'s predictive skill for hurricane-triggered landslides: A case study in Macon County, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Z.; Hong, Y.; Kirschbaum, D.; Adler, R.F.; Gourley, J.J.; Wooten, R.

    2011-01-01

    The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically based slope-stability models that simulate the transient dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrains. TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis) is a USGS landslide prediction model, coded in Fortran, that accounts for the influences of hydrology, topography, and soil physics on slope stability. In this study, we quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal predictability of a Matlab version of TRIGRS (MaTRIGRS) in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Macon County, North Carolina where Hurricanes Ivan triggered widespread landslides in the 2004 hurricane season. High resolution digital elevation model (DEM) data (6-m LiDAR), USGS STATSGO soil database, and NOAA/NWS combined radar and gauge precipitation are used as inputs to the model. A local landslide inventory database from North Carolina Geological Survey is used to evaluate the MaTRIGRS' predictive skill for the landslide locations and timing, identifying predictions within a 120-m radius of observed landslides over the 30-h period of Hurricane Ivan's passage in September 2004. Results show that within a radius of 24 m from the landslide location about 67% of the landslide, observations could be successfully predicted but with a high false alarm ratio (90%). If the radius of observation is extended to 120 m, 98% of the landslides are detected with an 18% false alarm ratio. This study shows that MaTRIGRS demonstrates acceptable spatiotemporal predictive skill for landslide occurrences within a 120-m radius in space and a hurricane-event-duration (h) in time, offering the potential to serve as a landslide warning system in areas where accurate rainfall forecasts and detailed field data are available. The validation can be further improved with additional landslide information including the exact time of failure for each

  10. Recovering from Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Nadine

    2006-01-01

    The Gulf Coast region suffered an unusually severe hurricane season in 2005: Hurricane Katrina (August 28-29, 2005) devastated much of southern Mississippi and Louisiana. Approximately 2,700 licensed early care and education facilities in those states and in Alabama were affected by Katrina, in addition to an unknown number of family child care…

  11. Physical aspects of Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scatena, F.N.; Larsen, Matthew C.

    1991-01-01

    On 18 September 1989 the western part ofHurricane Hugo crossed eastern Puerto Rico and the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF). Storm-facing slopes on the northeastern part of the island that were within 15 km of the eye and received greater than 200 mm of rain were most affected by the storm. In the LEF and nearby area, recurrence intervals associated with Hurricane Hugo were 50 yr for wind velocity, 10 to 31 yr for stream discharge, and 5 yr for rainfall intensity. To compare the magnitudes of the six hurricanes to pass over PuertoRico since 1899, 3 indices were developed using the standardized values of the product of: the maximum sustained wind speed at San Juan squared and storm duration; the square of the product of the maximum sustained wind velocity at San Juan and the ratio of the distance between the hurricane eye and San Juan to the distance between the eye and percentage of average annual rainfall delivered by the storm. Based on these indices, HurricaneHugo was of moderate intensity. However, because of the path of Hurricane Hugo, only one of these six storms (the 1932 storm) caused more damage to the LEF than Hurricane Hugo. Hurricanes of Hugo's magnitude are estimated to pass over the LEF once every 50-60 yr, on average. 

  12. Predictive model for SEPSIS in the intensive care unit.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavoisier Morais de Medeiros

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to provide a probabilistic decision model for sepsis, early diagnosis. The data contained in the medical records of 100 individuals admitted to a general ICU in a public hospital in the inland of the State of Paraiba were analyzed, in the period from March to September, 2011. The studied variables were: age, gender, initial diagnosis, minimum and maximum axillary temperature, heart and breathing rate, oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressure, lactate serum levels, potassium, sodium, total count of leukocytes, bands and segs., among others. The binary logistic regression were used to determine the prediction model, and data were analyzed by SPSS software, version 19.0. 63% of the subjects were male, with a 62.5 year average age. as explanatory variables the following were considered: minimum axillary temperature, maximum axillary temperature, carbon dioxide partial pressure, lactate, white blood cell count and number of bands. Through ROC curve we identified the ideal cut-off point for classifying the subjects with regard to the presence or absence of disease, which has contributed to formulating the decision-making rule for sepsis early diagnosis. The concordance degree were compared between blood culture result regarded as gold standard for infection diagnosis and the model submitted in the study using Kappa coefficient, obtaining a 0.93 concordance percentage, regarded as outstanding. It was demonstrated being possible to carry out sepsis early detection adopting statistical models as the submitted one, however, new studies with populations from different ICUs must be performed in order to provide a better casuistry, making the found results reproducible in different clinical situations.

  13. Comparative Sediment Transport Between Exposed and Reef Protected Beaches Under Different Hurricane Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miret, D.; Enriquez, C.; Marino-Tapia, I.

    2016-12-01

    Many world coast regions are subjected to tropical cyclone activity, which can cause major damage to beaches and infrastructure on sediment dominated coasts. The Caribbean Sea has on average 4 hurricanes per year, some of them have caused major damage to coastal cities in the past 25 years. For example, Wilma, a major hurricane that hit SE Mexico in October 2005 generated strong erosion at an exposed beach (Cancun), while beach accretion was observed 28 km south at a fringing reef protected beach (Puerto Morelos). Hurricanes with similar intensity and trajectory but different moving speeds have been reported to cause a different morphological response. The present study analyses the morphodynamic response to the hydrodynamic conditions of exposed and reef protected beaches, generated by hurricanes with similar intensities but different trajectories and moving speeds. A non-stationary Delft3D Wave model is used to generate large scale wind swell conditions and local sea wind states and coupled with Delft3D Flow model to study the connection between the continental shelf and surf zones exchanges. The model is validated with hydrodynamic data gathered during Wilma, and morphological conditions measured before and after the event. Preliminary results show that erosion appears at the exposed beach and a predominant exchange between north and south dominates the shelf sediment transport (figure 1). Onshore driven flows over the reef crest input sediment in the reef protected beach. It is expected that for a same track but faster moving speed, southward sediment transport will have less time to develop and accretion at the reef protected site would be less evident or inexistent. The study can be used as a prediction tool for shelf scale sediment transport exchange driven by hurricanes.

  14. Gaining Control and Predictability of Software-Intensive Systems Development and Sustainment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-04

    this would be a major design driver for the software architect (Naegle & Petross, 2007). Primary Software Acquisition Problem Areas Addressed The...control and produces significantly more predictability in the program management realm. The research conclusions and recommendations are designed to...provide more control and predictability to software-intensive systems development. Due to the TOC and architectural design focus, system sustainability

  15. Can Muscle Soreness After Intensive Work-related Activities Be Predicted?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soer, Remko; Geertzen, Jan H. B.; van der Schans, Cees P.; Groothoff, Johan W.; Reneman, Michiel F.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: It is currently unknown whether specific determinants are predictive for developing delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) after heavy work-related activities. The aim of this study was to analyze whether personal characteristics and performance measures are predictive for onset, intensity

  16. Hurricane! Coping With Disaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lifland, Jonathan

    A new AGU book, Hurricane! Coping With Disaster, analyzes the progress made in hurricane science and recounts how advances in the field have affected the public's and the scientific community's understanding of these storms. The book explores the evolution of hurricane study, from the catastrophic strike in Galveston, Texas in 1900—still the worst natural disaster in United States history—to today's satellite and aircraft observations that track a storm's progress and monitor its strength. In this issue, Eos talks with Robert Simpson, the books' senior editor.Simpson has studied severe storms for more than 60 years, including conducting one of the first research flights through a hurricane in 1945. He was the founding director of the (U.S.) National Hurricane Research Project and has served as director of the National Hurricane Center. In collaboration with Herbert Saffir, Simpson helped design and implement the Saffir/Simpson damage potential scale that is widely used to identify potential damage from hurricanes.

  17. On the Impact Angle of Hurricane Sandy's New Jersey Landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Timothy M.; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy's track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record, one of the factors contributing to recordsetting peak-water levels in parts of New Jersey and New York. To estimate the occurrence rate of Sandy-like tracks, we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricanes. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long-term average climate conditions, a hurricane of Sandy's intensity or greater (category 1+) makes NJ landfall at an angle at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy's at an average annual rate of 0.0014 yr-1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 years (95% confidence range 435 to 1429).

  18. Geologic record of Hurricane impacts on the New Jersey coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikitina, Daria; Horton, Benjamin; Khan, Nicole; Clear, Jennifer; Shaw, Timothy; Enache, Mihaela; Frizzera, Dorina; Procopio, Nick; Potapova, Marina

    2016-04-01

    Hurricanes along the US Atlantic coast have caused significant damage and loss of human life over the last century. Recent studies suggest that intense-hurricane activity is closely related to changes of sea surface temperatures and therefore the risk of hurricane strikes may increase in the future. A clear understanding of the role of recent warming on tropical cyclone activity is limited by the shortness of the instrumental record. However, the sediment preserved beneath coastal wetlands is an archive of when hurricanes impacted the coast. We present two complimenting approaches that help to extend pre-historic record and assess frequency and intensity of hurricane landfalls along the New Jersey cost; dating overwash deposits and hurricane-induced salt-marsh erosion documented at multiple sites. The stratigraphic investigation of estuarine salt marshes in the southern New Jersey documented seven distinctive erosion events that correlate among different sites. Radiocarbon dates suggest the prehistoric events occurred in AD 558-673, AD 429-966, AD 558-673, Ad 1278-1438, AD 1526-1558 or AD 1630-1643 (Nikitina et al., 2014). Younger sequences correspond with historical land-falling hurricanes in AD 1903 and AD 1821 or AD 1788. Four events correlate well with barrier overwash deposits documented along the New Jersey coast (Donnelley et al., 2001 and 2004). The stratigraphic sequence of salt High resolution sedimentary-based reconstructions of past intense-hurricane landfalls indicate that significant variability in the frequency of intense hurricanes occurred over the last 2000 years.

  19. Analyzing Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Angelyn; Meyer, Stephan; Edwards, Becca

    2015-03-01

    Post-tropical Storm Sandy underwent extratropical transition shortly before making landfall in southern New Jersey October 29 2012. Data from this system was compared with data from Hurricane Ike (2008) which represents a classic hurricane with a clear eye wall and symmetry after landfall. Storm Sandy collided with a low pressure system coming in from the north as the hurricane made landfall on the US East coast. This contributed to Storm Sandy acting as a non-typical hurricane when it made landfall. Time histories of wind speed and wind direction were generated from data provided by Texas Tech's StickNet probes for both storms. The NOAA Weather and Climate program were used to generate radar loops of reflectivity during the landfall for both storms; these loops were compared with time histories for both Ike and Sandy to identify a relationship between time series data and storm-scale features identified on radar.

  20. Cooperative Hurricane Network Obs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observations from the Cooperative Hurricane Reporting Network (CHURN), a special network of stations that provided observations when tropical cyclones approached the...

  1. Hurricane Katrina disaster diplomacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelman, Ilan

    2007-09-01

    Hurricane Katrina struck the United States at the end of August 2005. The consequent devastation appeared to be beyond the US government's ability to cope with and aid was offered by several states in varying degrees of conflict with the US. Hurricane Katrina therefore became a potential case study for 'disaster diplomacy', which examines how disaster-related activities do and do not yield diplomatic gains. A review of past disaster diplomacy work is provided. The literature's case studies are then categorised using a new typology: propinquity, aid relationship, level and purpose. Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath are then placed in the context of the US government's foreign policy, the international response to the disaster and the US government's reaction to these responses. The evidence presented is used to discuss the potential implications of Hurricane Katrina disaster diplomacy, indicating that factors other than disaster-related activities generally dominate diplomatic relations and foreign policy.

  2. Hurricane Katrina Water Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked with FEMA and state and local agencies to respond to the emergencies throughout the Gulf.

  3. Hurricane Katrina Sediment Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked with FEMA and state and local agencies to respond to the emergencies throughout the Gulf.

  4. Hurricane Katrina Soil Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked with FEMA and state and local agencies to respond to the emergencies throughout the Gulf.

  5. Hurricane Katrina Water Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  6. Hurricane Katrina Soil Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  7. Hurricane Katrina Sediment Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  8. Late Holocene Hurricane Activity in the Gulf of Mexico from a Bayou Sediment Archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodysill, J. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Toomey, M.; Sullivan, R.; MacDonald, D.; Evans, R. L.; Ashton, A. D.

    2012-12-01

    Hurricanes pose a considerable threat to coastal communities along the Atlantic seaboard and in the Gulf of Mexico. The complex role of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in controlling storm frequency and intensity, and how these relationships could be affected by climate change, remains uncertain. To better predict how storms will impact coastal communities, it is vital to constrain their past behavior, in particular how storm frequency and intensity and the pattern of storm tracks have been influenced by past climate conditions. In an effort to characterize past storm behavior, our work contributes to the growing network of storm records along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts by reconstructing storm-induced deposits in the northern Gulf of Mexico during the Late Holocene. Previous work on the northern Gulf coast has shown considerable centennial-scale variability in the occurrence of intense hurricanes, much like the northern Atlantic coast and in the Caribbean Sea. The timing of active and quiet intervals during the last 1000 years amongst the Gulf Coast records appears to be anti-phased with stormy intervals along the North American east coast. The sparse spatial coverage of the existing intense hurricane reconstructions provides a limited view of the natural variability of intense hurricanes. A new, high resolution reconstruction of storms along the northern Gulf Coast would be beneficial in assembling the picture of the patterns of storminess during the Late Holocene. Our study site, Basin Bayou, is situated on the north side of Choctawhatchee Bay in northwest Florida. From 1851 to 2011, 68 storms have struck the coast within 75 miles of Basin Bayou, of which 10 were Category 3 or greater, making it a prime location to reconstruct intense hurricanes. Basin Bayou openly exchanges water with Choctawhatchee Bay through a narrow channel, which acts as a conduit for propagating storm surges, and potentially coarse-grained bay sediments, into the bayou. Our record is

  9. Using new satellite data would improve hurricane forecasts

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Schultz, Colin

    2013-01-01

    To track and forecast the development of dangerous tropical cyclones, the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction uses a model known as the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system...

  10. Nonbreaking wave-induced mixing in upper ocean during tropical cyclones using coupled hurricane-ocean-wave modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aijaz, S.; Ghantous, M.; Babanin, A. V.; Ginis, I.; Thomas, B.; Wake, G.

    2017-05-01

    The effects of turbulence generated by nonbreaking waves have been investigated by testing and evaluating a new nonbreaking wave parameterization in a coupled hurricane-ocean-wave model. The MPI version of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) with hurricane forcing is coupled with the WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) surface wave model. Hurricane Ivan is chosen as the test case due to its extreme intensity and availability of field data during its passage. The model results are validated against field observations of wave heights and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the National Data Buoy Centre (NDBC) during Hurricane Ivan and against limited in situ current and bottom temperature data. A series of numerical experiments is set up to examine the influence of the nonbreaking wave parameterization on the mixing of upper ocean. The SST response from the modeling experiments indicates that the nonbreaking wave-induced mixing leads to significant cooling of the SST and deepening of the mixed layer. It was found that the nondimensional constant b1 in the nonbreaking wave parameterization has different impacts on the weak and the strong sides of the storm track. A constant value of b1 leads to improved predictions on the strong side of the storm while a steepness-dependent b1 provides a better agreement with in situ observations on the weak side. A separate simulation of the intense tropical cyclone Olwyn in north-west Australia revealed the same trend for b1 on the strong side of the tropical cyclone.

  11. Mapping helminth co-infection and co-intensity: geostatistical prediction in ghana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo J Soares Magalhães

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Morbidity due to Schistosoma haematobium and hookworm infections is marked in those with intense co-infections by these parasites. The development of a spatial predictive decision-support tool is crucial for targeting the delivery of integrated mass drug administration (MDA to those most in need. We investigated the co-distribution of S. haematobium and hookworm infection, plus the spatial overlap of infection intensity of both parasites, in Ghana. The aim was to produce maps to assist the planning and evaluation of national parasitic disease control programs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A national cross-sectional school-based parasitological survey was conducted in Ghana in 2008, using standardized sampling and parasitological methods. Bayesian geostatistical models were built, including a multinomial regression model for S. haematobium and hookworm mono- and co-infections and zero-inflated Poisson regression models for S. haematobium and hookworm infection intensity as measured by egg counts in urine and stool respectively. The resulting infection intensity maps were overlaid to determine the extent of geographical overlap of S. haematobium and hookworm infection intensity. In Ghana, prevalence of S. haematobium mono-infection was 14.4%, hookworm mono-infection was 3.2%, and S. haematobium and hookworm co-infection was 0.7%. Distance to water bodies was negatively associated with S. haematobium and hookworm co-infections, hookworm mono-infections and S. haematobium infection intensity. Land surface temperature was positively associated with hookworm mono-infections and S. haematobium infection intensity. While high-risk (prevalence >10-20% of co-infection was predicted in an area around Lake Volta, co-intensity was predicted to be highest in foci within that area. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our approach, based on the combination of co-infection and co-intensity maps allows the identification of communities at increased risk of

  12. Mapping Helminth Co-Infection and Co-Intensity: Geostatistical Prediction in Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares Magalhães, Ricardo J.; Biritwum, Nana-Kwadwo; Gyapong, John O.; Brooker, Simon; Zhang, Yaobi; Blair, Lynsey; Fenwick, Alan; Clements, Archie C. A.

    2011-01-01

    Background Morbidity due to Schistosoma haematobium and hookworm infections is marked in those with intense co-infections by these parasites. The development of a spatial predictive decision-support tool is crucial for targeting the delivery of integrated mass drug administration (MDA) to those most in need. We investigated the co-distribution of S. haematobium and hookworm infection, plus the spatial overlap of infection intensity of both parasites, in Ghana. The aim was to produce maps to assist the planning and evaluation of national parasitic disease control programs. Methodology/Principal Findings A national cross-sectional school-based parasitological survey was conducted in Ghana in 2008, using standardized sampling and parasitological methods. Bayesian geostatistical models were built, including a multinomial regression model for S. haematobium and hookworm mono- and co-infections and zero-inflated Poisson regression models for S. haematobium and hookworm infection intensity as measured by egg counts in urine and stool respectively. The resulting infection intensity maps were overlaid to determine the extent of geographical overlap of S. haematobium and hookworm infection intensity. In Ghana, prevalence of S. haematobium mono-infection was 14.4%, hookworm mono-infection was 3.2%, and S. haematobium and hookworm co-infection was 0.7%. Distance to water bodies was negatively associated with S. haematobium and hookworm co-infections, hookworm mono-infections and S. haematobium infection intensity. Land surface temperature was positively associated with hookworm mono-infections and S. haematobium infection intensity. While high-risk (prevalence >10–20%) of co-infection was predicted in an area around Lake Volta, co-intensity was predicted to be highest in foci within that area. Conclusions/Significance Our approach, based on the combination of co-infection and co-intensity maps allows the identification of communities at increased risk of severe morbidity and

  13. Hurricane Katrina: addictive behavior trends and predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudoin, Christopher E

    2011-01-01

    Post-disaster trends in alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking, as well as their predictors, were identified. Methods. Data from cross-sectional and panel surveys of African American adults in New Orleans, Louisiana, were used from before (2004: n = 1,867; 2005: n = 879) and after (2006a: n = 500; 2006b: n = 500) Hurricane Katrina. Alcohol consumption increased significantly from pre- to post-Hurricane Katrina, while cigarette smoking remained constant. In 2006, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was associated with cigarette smoking, whereas "news attention" and "provided social support" were inversely associated with cigarette smoking. "News attention" was also inversely associated with cigarette smoking frequency, while "neighborliness" was associated with alcohol consumption. In addition, the effects of PTSD on alcohol consumption were moderated by "neighborliness." In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, there were complex predictive processes of addictive behaviors involving PTSD, news information, and social capital-related measures.

  14. Real-time seismic intensity prediction using frequency-dependent site amplification factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogiso, Masashi; Aoki, Shigeki; Hoshiba, Mitsuyuki

    2016-05-01

    A promising approach for the next generation of earthquake early warning system is based on predicting ground motion directly from observed ground motion, without any information of hypocenter. In this study, we predicted seismic intensity at the target stations from the observed ground motion at adjacent stations, employing two different methods of correction for site amplification factors. The first method was frequency-dependent correction prediction, in which we used a digital causal filter to correct the site amplification for the observed waveform in the time domain. The second method was scalar correction, in which we used average differences in seismic intensity between two stations for the site amplification correction. Results from thousands of station pairs that covered almost all of Japan showed that seismic intensity prediction with frequency-dependent correction prediction was more accurate than prediction with scalar correction. Frequency-dependent correction for site amplification in the time domain may lead to more accurate prediction of ground motion in real time.

  15. On the relationship between hurricane cost and the integrated wind profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Toumi, R.

    2016-11-01

    It is challenging to identify metrics that best capture hurricane destructive potential and costs. Although it has been found that the sea surface temperature and vertical wind shear can both make considerable changes to the hurricane destructive potential metrics, it is still unknown which plays a more important role. Here we present a new method to reconstruct the historical wind structure of hurricanes that allows us, for the first time, to calculate the correlation of damage with integrated power dissipation and integrated kinetic energy of all hurricanes at landfall since 1988. We find that those metrics, which include the horizontal wind structure, rather than just maximum intensity, are much better correlated with the hurricane cost. The vertical wind shear over the main development region of hurricanes plays a more dominant role than the sea surface temperature in controlling these metrics and therefore also ultimately the cost of hurricanes.

  16. Hurricane Modeling and Supercomputing: Can a global mesoscale model be useful in improving forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, B.; Tao, W.; Atlas, R.

    2007-12-01

    Hurricane modeling, along with guidance from observations, has been used to help construct hurricane theories since the 1960s. CISK (conditional instability of the second kind, Charney and Eliassen 1964; Ooyama 1964,1969) and WISHE (wind-induced surface heat exchange, Emanuel 1986) are among the well-known theories being used to understand hurricane intensification. For hurricane genesis, observations have indicated the importance of large-scale flows (e.g., the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO, Maloney and Hartmann, 2000) on the modulation of hurricane activity. Recent modeling studies have focused on the role of the MJO and Rossby waves (e.g., Ferreira and Schubert, 1996; Aivyer and Molinari, 2003) and/or the interaction of small-scale vortices (e.g., Holland 1995; Simpson et al. 1997; Hendrick et al. 2004), of which determinism could be also built by large-scale flows. The aforementioned studies suggest a unified view on hurricane formation, consisting of multiscale processes such as scale transition (e.g., from the MJO to Equatorial Rossby Waves and from waves to vortices), and scale interactions among vortices, convection, and surface heat and moisture fluxes. To depict the processes in the unified view, a high-resolution global model is needed. During the past several years, supercomputers have enabled the deployment of ultra-high resolution global models, obtaining remarkable forecasts of hurricane track and intensity (Atlas et al. 2005; Shen et al. 2006). In this work, hurricane genesis is investigated with the aid of a global mesoscale model on the NASA Columbia supercomputer by conducting numerical experiments on the genesis of six consecutive tropical cyclones (TCs) in May 2002. These TCs include two pairs of twin TCs in the Indian Ocean, Supertyphoon Hagibis in the West Pacific Ocean and Hurricane Alma in the East Pacific Ocean. It is found that the model is capable of predicting the genesis of five of these TCs about two to three days in advance. Our

  17. Can Muscle Soreness After Intensive Work-related Activities Be Predicted?

    OpenAIRE

    Soer, Remko; Jan H B Geertzen; van der Schans, Cees P; Johan W. Groothoff; Reneman, Michiel F

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: It is currently unknown whether specific determinants are predictive for developing delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) after heavy work-related activities. The aim of this study was to analyze whether personal characteristics and performance measures are predictive for onset, intensity, and duration of DOMS after performing work-related activities during a Functional Capacity Evaluation in healthy participants. Methods: Included in this study were 197 healthy participants (102 m...

  18. Rapid shelf-wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seroka, Greg; Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

    2017-06-01

    Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead-of-eye-center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation-validated, high-resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid-Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)—with an inshore Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season—and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)—with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead-of-eye-center depth-averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead-of-eye-center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3-D coupled atmosphere-ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels.

  19. Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead‐of‐eye‐center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation‐validated, high‐resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid‐Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)—with an inshore Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season—and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)—with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead‐of‐eye‐center depth‐averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead‐of‐eye‐center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3‐D coupled atmosphere‐ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels. PMID:28944132

  20. Rapid shelf-wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seroka, Greg; Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

    2017-06-01

    Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead-of-eye-center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation-validated, high-resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid-Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)-with an inshore Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season-and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)-with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead-of-eye-center depth-averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead-of-eye-center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3-D coupled atmosphere-ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels.

  1. Continental United States Hurricane Strikes

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...

  2. Mortality prediction models for pediatric intensive care : comparison of overall and subgroup specific performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Idse H. E.; Hazelzet, Jan A.; Albers, Marcel J. I. J.; Verlaat, Carin W. M.; Hogenbirk, Karin; van Woensel, Job B.; van Heerde, Marc; van Waardenburg, Dick A.; Jansen, Nicolaas J. G.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

    2013-01-01

    To validate paediatric index of mortality (PIM) and pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) models within the overall population as well as in specific subgroups in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Variants of PIM and PRISM prediction models were compared with respect to calibration (agreement be

  3. Mortality prediction models for pediatric intensive care : comparison of overall and subgroup specific performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Idse H. E.; Hazelzet, Jan A.; Albers, Marcel J. I. J.; Verlaat, Carin W. M.; Hogenbirk, Karin; van Woensel, Job B.; van Heerde, Marc; van Waardenburg, Dick A.; Jansen, Nicolaas J. G.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

    2013-01-01

    To validate paediatric index of mortality (PIM) and pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) models within the overall population as well as in specific subgroups in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Variants of PIM and PRISM prediction models were compared with respect to calibration (agreement be

  4. The impact of delirium on the prediction of in-hospital mortality in intensive care patients.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boogaard, M.H.W.A. van den; Peters, S.A.; Hoeven, J.G. van der; Dagnelie, P.C.; Leffers, P.; Pickkers, P.; Schoonhoven, L.J.

    2010-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Predictive models, such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE-II), are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) to estimate mortality. Although the presence of delirium is associated with a higher mortality in ICU patients, delirium is not part of the APACHE-II

  5. Extracting hurricane eye morphology from spaceborne SAR images using morphological analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Isabella K.; Shamsoddini, Ali; Li, Xiaofeng; Trinder, John C.; Li, Zeyu

    2016-07-01

    Hurricanes are among the most destructive global natural disasters. Thus recognizing and extracting their morphology is important for understanding their dynamics. Conventional optical sensors, due to cloud cover associated with hurricanes, cannot reveal the intense air-sea interaction occurring at the sea surface. In contrast, the unique capabilities of spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data for cloud penetration, and its backscattering signal characteristics enable the extraction of the sea surface roughness. Therefore, SAR images enable the measurement of the size and shape of hurricane eyes, which reveal their evolution and strength. In this study, using six SAR hurricane images, we have developed a mathematical morphology method for automatically extracting the hurricane eyes from C-band SAR data. Skeleton pruning based on discrete skeleton evolution (DSE) was used to ensure global and local preservation of the hurricane eye shape. This distance weighted algorithm applied in a hierarchical structure for extraction of the edges of the hurricane eyes, can effectively avoid segmentation errors by reducing redundant skeletons attributed to speckle noise along the edges of the hurricane eye. As a consequence, the skeleton pruning has been accomplished without deficiencies in the key hurricane eye skeletons. A morphology-based analyses of the subsequent reconstructions of the hurricane eyes shows a high degree of agreement with the hurricane eye areas derived from reference data based on NOAA manual work.

  6. Hurricane Katrina: A Teachable Moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, Peggy

    2009-01-01

    This article presents suggestions for integrating the phenomenon of hurricanes into the teaching of high school fluid mechanics. Students come to understand core science concepts in the context of their impact upon both the environment and human populations. Suggestions for using information about hurricanes, particularly Hurricane Katrina, in a…

  7. Hurricane Katrina: A Teachable Moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, Peggy

    2009-01-01

    This article presents suggestions for integrating the phenomenon of hurricanes into the teaching of high school fluid mechanics. Students come to understand core science concepts in the context of their impact upon both the environment and human populations. Suggestions for using information about hurricanes, particularly Hurricane Katrina, in a…

  8. Shelf sediment transport during hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kehui; Mickey, Rangley C.; Chen, Qin; Harris, Courtney K.; Hetland, Robert D.; Hu, Kelin; Wang, Jiaze

    2016-05-01

    Hurricanes can greatly modify the sedimentary record, but our coastal scientific community has rather limited capability to predict hurricane-induced sediment deposition. A three-dimensional sediment transport model was developed in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to study seabed erosion and deposition on the Louisiana shelf in response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the year 2005. Sensitivity tests were performed on both erosional and depositional processes for a wide range of erosional rates and settling velocities, and uncertainty analysis was done on critical shear stresses using the polynomial chaos approximation method. A total of 22 model runs were performed in sensitivity and uncertainty tests. Estimated maximum erosional depths were sensitive to the inputs, but horizontal erosional patterns seemed to be controlled mainly by hurricane tracks, wave-current combined shear stresses, seabed grain sizes, and shelf bathymetry. During the passage of two hurricanes, local resuspension and deposition dominated the sediment transport mechanisms. Hurricane Katrina followed a shelf-perpendicular track before making landfall and its energy dissipated rapidly within about 48 h along the eastern Louisiana coast. In contrast, Hurricane Rita followed a more shelf-oblique track and disturbed the seabed extensively during its 84-h passage from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Louisiana-Texas border. Conditions to either side of Hurricane Rita's storm track differed substantially, with the region to the east having stronger winds, taller waves and thus deeper erosions. This study indicated that major hurricanes can disturb the shelf at centimeter to meter levels. Each of these two hurricanes suspended seabed sediment mass that far exceeded the annual sediment inputs from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers, but the net transport from shelves to estuaries is yet to be determined. Future studies should focus on the modeling of sediment exchange between

  9. Hurricanes and coral reefs: The intermediate disturbance hypothesis revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, C. S.

    1993-11-01

    A review of research on the effects of hurricanes on coral reefs suggests that the intermediate disturbance hypothesis may be applicable to shallow reef zones dominated by branching or foliaceous coral species that are especially susceptible to mechanical damage from storms. Diversity ( H') increases because of an increase in evenness following destruction or removal of the species that was monopolizing the space. The intermediate disturbance hypothesis as presented by Connell focuses on changes in number of species, but should be expanded to include diversity ( H') and evenness. It should also be modified to incorporate changes in living cover and the time elapsed since disturbances of varying intensities. This hypothesis predicts that when cover is high, diversity will be low. However, research on coral reefs does not consistently demonstrate an inverse correlation of coral diversity, and coral cover. An increase in cover and decrease in diversity with depth would also be expected because deeper reef zones generally experience less disturbance. However, higher diversity (both H' and species richness) is often associated with deeper zones. The effects of hurricanes on coral reefs will depend on the temporal and spatial scales under consideration, the life history characteristics and morphology of the dominant species, the depth of the reef zone, the ecological history of the site, and the influence of any additional natural or human stresses.

  10. Sensitivity of hurricane track to cumulus parameterization schemes in the WRF model for three intense tropical cyclones: impact of convective asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Tristan J.; Walsh, Kevin J.

    2017-08-01

    This study investigates the effect of the choice of convective parameterization (CP) scheme on the simulated tracks of three intense tropical cyclones (TCs), using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We focus on diagnosing the competing influences of large-scale steering flow, beta drift and convectively induced changes in track, as represented by four different CP schemes (Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell-3D (G-3), and the Tiedtke (TD) scheme). The sensitivity of the results to initial conditions, model domain size and shallow convection is also tested. We employ a diagnostic technique by Chan et al. (J Atmos Sci 59:1317-1336, 2002) that separates the influence of the large-scale steering flow, beta drift and the modifications of the steering flow by the storm-scale convection. The combined effect of the steering flow and the beta drift causes TCs typically to move in the direction of the wavenumber-1 (WN-1) cyclonic potential vorticity tendency (PVT). In instances of asymmetrical TCs, the simulated TC motion does not necessarily match the motion expected from the WN-1 PVT due to changes in the convective pattern. In the present study, we test this concept in the WRF simulations and investigate whether if the diagnosed motion from the WN-1 PVT and the TC motion do not match, this can be related to the emerging evolution of changes in convective structure. Several systematic results are found across the three cyclone cases. The sensitivity of TC track to initial conditions (the initialisation time and model domain size) is less than the sensitivity of TC track to changing the CP scheme. The simulated track is not overly sensitive to shallow convection in the KF, BMJ, and TD schemes, compared to the track difference between CP schemes. The G3 scheme, however, is highly sensitive to shallow convection being used. Furthermore, while agreement between the simulated TC track direction and the WN-1 diagnostic is usually good, there are

  11. Sensitivity of hurricane track to cumulus parameterization schemes in the WRF model for three intense tropical cyclones: impact of convective asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Tristan J.; Walsh, Kevin J.

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the effect of the choice of convective parameterization (CP) scheme on the simulated tracks of three intense tropical cyclones (TCs), using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We focus on diagnosing the competing influences of large-scale steering flow, beta drift and convectively induced changes in track, as represented by four different CP schemes (Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell-3D (G-3), and the Tiedtke (TD) scheme). The sensitivity of the results to initial conditions, model domain size and shallow convection is also tested. We employ a diagnostic technique by Chan et al. (J Atmos Sci 59:1317-1336, 2002) that separates the influence of the large-scale steering flow, beta drift and the modifications of the steering flow by the storm-scale convection. The combined effect of the steering flow and the beta drift causes TCs typically to move in the direction of the wavenumber-1 (WN-1) cyclonic potential vorticity tendency (PVT). In instances of asymmetrical TCs, the simulated TC motion does not necessarily match the motion expected from the WN-1 PVT due to changes in the convective pattern. In the present study, we test this concept in the WRF simulations and investigate whether if the diagnosed motion from the WN-1 PVT and the TC motion do not match, this can be related to the emerging evolution of changes in convective structure. Several systematic results are found across the three cyclone cases. The sensitivity of TC track to initial conditions (the initialisation time and model domain size) is less than the sensitivity of TC track to changing the CP scheme. The simulated track is not overly sensitive to shallow convection in the KF, BMJ, and TD schemes, compared to the track difference between CP schemes. The G3 scheme, however, is highly sensitive to shallow convection being used. Furthermore, while agreement between the simulated TC track direction and the WN-1 diagnostic is usually good, there are

  12. Driving anger in Ukraine: Appraisals, not trait driving anger, predict anger intensity while driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, A N; Hill, T; Sullman, M J M

    2016-03-01

    Trait driving anger is often, but not always, found to predict both the intensity of anger while driving and subsequent crash-related behaviours. However, a number of studies have not found support for a direct relationship between one's tendency to become angry and anger reported while driving, suggesting that other factors may mediate this relationship. The present self-report study investigated whether, in anger provoking driving situations, the appraisals made by drivers influence the relationship between trait and state anger. A sample of 339 drivers from Ukraine completed the 33-item version of the Driver Anger Scale (DAS; Deffenbacher et al., 1994) and eight questions about their most recent experience of driving anger. A structural equation model found that the intensity of anger experienced was predicted by the negative evaluations of the situation, which was in turn predicted by trait driving anger. However, trait driving anger itself did not predict anger intensity; supporting the hypothesis that evaluations of the driving situation mediate the relationship between trait and state anger. Further, the unique structure of the DAS required to fit the data from the Ukrainian sample, may indicate that the anger inducing situations in Ukraine are different to those of a more developed country. Future research is needed to investigate driving anger in Ukraine in a broader sample and also to confirm the role of the appraisal process in the development of driving anger in both developed and undeveloped countries.

  13. Landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in Tegucigalpa, Honduras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harp, Edwin L.; Castaneda, Mario; Held, Matthew D.

    2002-01-01

    The arrival of Hurricane Mitch in Honduras in the latter part of the 1998 hurricane season produced effects that were unprecedented in their widespread nature throughout Central America. After winds from the storm had blown down more than 70 percent of the conifer forest on the Bay Island of Guanaja, the hurricane turned inland and stalled over the mainland of Honduras for 3 days. The resulting deluge of rainfall produced devastating flooding and landslides that resulted in more than 9,000 fatalities and 3 million people displaced. Although the eye of Hurricane Mitch passed through the northern part of Honduras, the greatest rainfall totals and intensities occurred in the southern part of the country near Choluteca. For the three days October 29-31, 1998, total rainfall at Choluteca exceeded 900 mm. Not surprisingly, it was in this area that the highest landslide concentrations occurred.

  14. Case Study of Hurricane Felix (2007) Rapid Intensification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colon-Pagan, I. C.; Davis, C. A.; Holland, G. J.

    2010-12-01

    The forecasting of tropical cyclones (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is one of the most challenging problems that the operational community experiences. Research advances leading to improvements in predicting this phenomenon would help government agencies make decisions that could reduce the impact on communities that are so often affected by these weather-related events. It has been proposed that TC RI is associated to various factors, including high sea-surface temperatures, weak vertical wind shear, and the ratio of inertial to static stability, which improves the conversion of diabatic heating into circulation. While a cyclone develops, the size of the region of high inertial stability (IS) decreases whereas the magnitude of IS increases. However, it’s unknown whether this is a favorable condition or a result of RI occurrences. The purpose of this research, therefore, is to determine if the IS follows, leads or changes in sync with the intensity change by studying Hurricane Felix (2007) RI phase. Results show a trend of increasing IS before the RI stage, followed by an expansion of the region of high IS. This episode is eventually followed by a decrease in both the intensity and region of positive IS, while the maximum wind speed intensity of the TC diminished. Therefore, we propose that monitoring the IS may provide a forecast tool to determine RI periods. Other parameters, such as static stability, tangential wind, and water vapor mixing ratio may help identify other features of the storm, such as circulation and eyewall formation. The inertial stability (IS) trend during the period of rapid intensification, which occurred between 00Z and 06Z of September 3rd. Maximum values of IS were calculated before and during this period of RI within a region located 30-45 km from the center. In fact, this region could represent the eye-wall of Hurricane Felix.

  15. Prediction of chronic critical illness in a general intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sérgio H. Loss

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess the incidence, costs, and mortality associated with chronic critical illness (CCI, and to identify clinical predictors of CCI in a general intensive care unit. METHODS: This was a prospective observational cohort study. All patients receiving supportive treatment for over 20 days were considered chronically critically ill and eligible for the study. After applying the exclusion criteria, 453 patients were analyzed. RESULTS: There was an 11% incidence of CCI. Total length of hospital stay, costs, and mortality were significantly higher among patients with CCI. Mechanical ventilation, sepsis, Glasgow score < 15, inadequate calorie intake, and higher body mass index were independent predictors for cci in the multivariate logistic regression model. CONCLUSIONS: CCI affects a distinctive population in intensive care units with higher mortality, costs, and prolonged hospitalization. Factors identifiable at the time of admission or during the first week in the intensive care unit can be used to predict CCI.

  16. Use of an intense microwave laser to dissociate a diatomic molecule: Theoretical prediction of dissociation dynamics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Amita Wadehra; B M Deb

    2012-01-01

    By employing an intense microwave laser of wavelength 116.65 m with intensities 1 × 1013 and 5 × 1018Wcm−2, respectively, the conclusion is reached theoretically and computationally that it is possible to dissociate the CO molecule, modelled as a Morse oscillator. It is predicted that for above-threshold dissociation (ATD), the molecule should absorb 1044 photons of the given wavelength in order to reach the lowest edge of the vibrational continuum. A consistent analysis of the predicted dissociation process is provided though the time-dependent probability density, dissociation probability, norm, potential function, HHG and ATD spectra, obtained by numerically solving the time-dependent vibrational Schödinger equation.

  17. Pain catastrophizing predicts pain intensity during a neurodynamic test for the median nerve in healthy participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beneciuk, Jason M; Bishop, Mark D; George, Steven Z

    2010-08-01

    Psychological factors within the Fear-Avoidance Model of Musculoskeletal Pain (FAM) predict clinical and experimental pain in both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Clinicians routinely examine individuals with provocative testing procedures that evoke symptoms. The purpose of this study was to investigate which FAM factors were associated with evoked pain intensity, non-painful symptom intensity, and range of motion during an upper-limb neurodynamic test. Healthy participants (n = 62) completed psychological questionnaires for pain catastrophizing, fear of pain, kinesiophobia, and anxiety prior to neurodynamic testing. Pain intensity, non-painful sensation intensity, and elbow range of motion (ROM) were collected during testing and served as dependent variables in separate simultaneous regression models. All the psychological predictors in the model accounted for 18% of the variance in evoked pain intensity (p = .02), with only pain catastrophizing (beta = .442, p neurodynamic testing for healthy subjects. Although these findings cannot be directly translated to clinical practice, the influence of pain catastrophizing on evoked pain responses should be considered during neurodynamic testing.

  18. An Organic Molecular Approach towards the Reconstruction of Past Hurricane Activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammers, J. M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/344765601; van Soelen, E.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304079766; Liebrand, D.; Donders, T.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290469872; Reichart, G. J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/165599081

    2009-01-01

    The relationship between global warming and hurricane activity is the focus of considerable interest and intensive research. The available instrumental record, however, is still too short to document and understand the long term climatic controls on hurricane generation. Only by extending the record

  19. An Organic Molecular Approach towards the Reconstruction of Past Hurricane Activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammers, J. M.; van Soelen, E.; Liebrand, D.; Donders, T.; Reichart, G. J.

    2009-01-01

    The relationship between global warming and hurricane activity is the focus of considerable interest and intensive research. The available instrumental record, however, is still too short to document and understand the long term climatic controls on hurricane generation. Only by extending the record

  20. An Organic Molecular Approach towards the Reconstruction of Past Hurricane Activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammers, J. M.; van Soelen, E.; Liebrand, D.; Donders, T.; Reichart, G. J.

    2009-01-01

    The relationship between global warming and hurricane activity is the focus of considerable interest and intensive research. The available instrumental record, however, is still too short to document and understand the long term climatic controls on hurricane generation. Only by extending the

  1. Signal intensity analysis of ecological defined habitat in soft tissue sarcomas to predict metastasis development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhidzadeh, Hamidreza; Chaudhury, Baishali; Scott, Jacob G.; Goldgof, Dmitry B.; Hall, Lawrence O.; Gatenby, Robert A.; Gillies, Robert J.; Raghavan, Meera

    2016-03-01

    Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is the standard of care in the clinic for diagnosis and follow up of Soft Tissue Sarcomas (STS) which presents an opportunity to explore the heterogeneity inherent in these rare tumors. Tumor heterogeneity is a challenging problem to quantify and has been shown to exist at many scales, from genomic to radiomic, existing both within an individual tumor, between tumors from the same primary in the same patient and across different patients. In this paper, we propose a method which focuses on spatially distinct sub-regions or habitats in the diagnostic MRI of patients with STS by using pixel signal intensity. Habitat characteristics likely represent areas of differing underlying biology within the tumor, and delineation of these differences could provide clinically relevant information to aid in selecting a therapeutic regimen (chemotherapy or radiation). To quantify tumor heterogeneity, first we assay intra-tumoral segmentations based on signal intensity and then build a spatial mapping scheme from various MRI modalities. Finally, we predict clinical outcomes, using in this paper the appearance of distant metastasis - the most clinically meaningful endpoint. After tumor segmentation into high and low signal intensities, a set of quantitative imaging features based on signal intensity is proposed to represent variation in habitat characteristics. This set of features is utilized to predict metastasis in a cohort of STS patients. We show that this framework, using only pre-therapy MRI, predicts the development of metastasis in STS patients with 72.41% accuracy, providing a starting point for a number of clinical hypotheses.

  2. Lagrangian mixing in an axisymmetric hurricane model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Rutherford

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the extension of established Lagrangian mixing measures to make them applicable to data extracted from a 2-D axisymmetric hurricane simulation. Because of the non-steady and unbounded characteristics of the simulation, the previous measures are extended to a moving frame approach to create time-dependent mixing rates that are dependent upon the initial time of particle integration, and are computed for nonlocal regions. The global measures of mixing derived from finite-time Lyapunov exponents, relative dispersion, and a measured mixing rate are applied to distinct regions representing different characteristic feautures within the model. It is shown that these time-dependent mixing rates exhibit correlations with maximal tangential winds during a quasi-steady state, establishing a connection between mixing and hurricane intensity.

  3. Hurricane Rita Poster (September 22, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Rita poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Rita as a category-4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on September 22, 2005. Poster size is...

  4. Hurricane Katrina Poster (August 28, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Katrina poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-18 shows a very large Hurricane Katrina as a category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on August 28, 2005....

  5. Beyond intensity: Spectral features effectively predict music-induced subjective arousal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingras, Bruno; Marin, Manuela M; Fitch, W Tecumseh

    2014-01-01

    Emotions in music are conveyed by a variety of acoustic cues. Notably, the positive association between sound intensity and arousal has particular biological relevance. However, although amplitude normalization is a common procedure used to control for intensity in music psychology research, direct comparisons between emotional ratings of original and amplitude-normalized musical excerpts are lacking. In this study, 30 nonmusicians retrospectively rated the subjective arousal and pleasantness induced by 84 six-second classical music excerpts, and an additional 30 nonmusicians rated the same excerpts normalized for amplitude. Following the cue-redundancy and Brunswik lens models of acoustic communication, we hypothesized that arousal and pleasantness ratings would be similar for both versions of the excerpts, and that arousal could be predicted effectively by other acoustic cues besides intensity. Although the difference in mean arousal and pleasantness ratings between original and amplitude-normalized excerpts correlated significantly with the amplitude adjustment, ratings for both sets of excerpts were highly correlated and shared a similar range of values, thus validating the use of amplitude normalization in music emotion research. Two acoustic parameters, spectral flux and spectral entropy, accounted for 65% of the variance in arousal ratings for both sets, indicating that spectral features can effectively predict arousal. Additionally, we confirmed that amplitude-normalized excerpts were adequately matched for loudness. Overall, the results corroborate our hypotheses and support the cue-redundancy and Brunswik lens models.

  6. Prediction of postnatal outcomes in congenital diaphragmatic hernia using MRI signal intensity of the fetal lung.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terui, K; Omoto, A; Osada, H; Hishiki, T; Saito, T; Sato, Y; Nakata, M; Komatsu, S; Ono, S; Yoshida, H

    2011-04-01

    Prognostic prediction in prenatally diagnosed congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) is needed. The aim of the study was to evaluate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) signal intensity of the fetal lung as a predictor of prognosis in CDH. The subjects consisted of 12 fetuses with prenatally diagnosed CDH, who were treated soon after the birth in our institution. They all underwent MRI at 29 to 37 weeks of gestation. The ratio of the lung signal intensity to the spinal fluid signal intensity (L/SF) was calculated using region-of-interest analysis of T2-weighted images. The relationship between L/SF and clinical data was then examined. L/SF were significantly larger in survivors compared with deaths (0.815 vs 0.614, P<0.05). In survivors, L/SF significantly correlated with duration of tracheal intubation (rs=-0.938, P<0.01). L/SF is a unique factor to predict the survival prognosis and likely to quantify the degree of pulmonary hypoplasia in CDH.

  7. Precursors to Forbush decreases in cosmic ray intensity and Space Weather predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badruddin, B.

    PRECURSORS TO FORBUSH DECREASES IN COSMIC RAY INTENSITY AND SPACE WEATHER PREDICTIONS Badruddin Department of Physics, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh-202002, India E-mail:badr_phys@redidfmail.com/Fax: +91-0571-701001 In this paper we examine the precursors to Forbush decreases by analyzing cosmic ray intensity recorded by ground based neutron detector. The precursors to Forbush decreases are examined in association with geomagnetic storms. Precursor to Forbush decreases of smaller amplitude ( 5 %) the precursor is an intensity deficitof cosmic rays (Sloss coneT type). Simultaneous analysis of solar wind, cosmic ray and geomagnetic data shows that precursors can be distinguished in terms of weaker and stronger interplanetary shocks responsible for Forbush decreases and geomagnetic storms. These precursors to Forbush decreases are of practical interest as possible predictors of Space Weather effects on earth several hours or even days before the passage of a major interplanetary shock. Our results show that such efforts may be useful input in Space Weather predictions.

  8. Use of a Modified Vector Model for Odor Intensity Prediction of Odorant Mixtures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luchun Yan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Odor intensity (OI indicates the perceived intensity of an odor by the human nose, and it is usually rated by specialized assessors. In order to avoid restrictions on assessor participation in OI evaluations, the Vector Model which calculates the OI of a mixture as the vector sum of its unmixed components’ odor intensities was modified. Based on a detected linear relation between the OI and the logarithm of odor activity value (OAV—a ratio between chemical concentration and odor threshold of individual odorants, OI of the unmixed component was replaced with its corresponding logarithm of OAV. The interaction coefficient (cosα which represented the degree of interaction between two constituents was also measured in a simplified way. Through a series of odor intensity matching tests for binary, ternary and quaternary odor mixtures, the modified Vector Model provided an effective way of relating the OI of an odor mixture with the lnOAV values of its constituents. Thus, OI of an odor mixture could be directly predicted by employing the modified Vector Model after usual quantitative analysis. Besides, it was considered that the modified Vector Model was applicable for odor mixtures which consisted of odorants with the same chemical functional groups and similar molecular structures.

  9. Survivors, not invaders, control forest development following simulated hurricane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plotkin, Audrey Barker; Foster, David; Carlson, Joel; Magill, Alison

    2013-02-01

    Wind disturbance profoundly shapes temperate forests but few studies have evaluated patterns and mechanisms of long-term forest dynamics following major windthrows. In 1990, we initiated a large hurricane simulation experiment in a 0.8-ha manipulation (pulldown) and 0.6-ha control area of a maturing Quercus rubra--Acer rubrum forest in New England. We toppled 276 trees in the pulldown, using a winch and cable, in the northwesterly direction of natural treefall from major hurricanes. Eighty percent of canopy trees and two-thirds of all trees > or = 5 cm dbh (diameter at breast height) suffered direct and indirect damage. We used 20 years of measurements to evaluate the trajectory and mechanisms of forest response after intense disturbance. Based on the patch size and disturbance magnitude, we expected pioneer tree and understory species to drive succession. The first decade of analyses emphasized tree seedling establishment and sprouting by damaged trees as the dominant mechanisms of forest recovery in this extensive damaged area. However, despite 80% canopy damage and 8000-m2 patch size, surviving overstory and advance regeneration controlled longer-term forest development. Residual oaks make up 42% of stand basal area after 20 years. The new cohort of trees, dominated by black birch advance regeneration, contributes 30% of stand basal area. There were shifts in understory vegetation composition and cover, but few species were gained or lost after 20 years. Stand productivity rebounded quickly (litterfall recovered to pre-disturbance levels in six years), but we predict that basal area in the pulldown will lag behind the control (which gained 6 m2/ha over 20 years) for decades to come. This controlled experiment showed that although the scale and intensity of damage were great, abundant advance regeneration, understory vegetation, and damaged trees remained, allowing the forest to resist changes in ecosystem processes and invasion by new species.

  10. Complex data modeling and computationally intensive methods for estimation and prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Secchi, Piercesare; Advances in Complex Data Modeling and Computational Methods in Statistics

    2015-01-01

    The book is addressed to statisticians working at the forefront of the statistical analysis of complex and high dimensional data and offers a wide variety of statistical models, computer intensive methods and applications: network inference from the analysis of high dimensional data; new developments for bootstrapping complex data; regression analysis for measuring the downsize reputational risk; statistical methods for research on the human genome dynamics; inference in non-euclidean settings and for shape data; Bayesian methods for reliability and the analysis of complex data; methodological issues in using administrative data for clinical and epidemiological research; regression models with differential regularization; geostatistical methods for mobility analysis through mobile phone data exploration. This volume is the result of a careful selection among the contributions presented at the conference "S.Co.2013: Complex data modeling and computationally intensive methods for estimation and prediction" held...

  11. Improving Our Understanding of Atlantic Hurricanes Through Knowledge of the Saharan Air Layer: Hope Or Hype?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Scott

    2009-01-01

    The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air frequently present over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. The nature of its impact on hurricanes remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts. Some investigators have assumed the validity of these proposed negative influences and have frequently used them to explain the failure of individual storms to intensify or to explain the relative inactivity of recent hurricane seasons. Multiple NASA satellite data sets and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to characterize the SAL's properties and evolution in relation to developing hurricanes. The results will shows that neither jet--induced vertical wind shear nor warm SAL air (high stability) produce significant negative impacts on Atlantic storms. Dry air appears to be a key mechanism for SAL influence, but the presence of dry SAL air is not always a good indicator of whether a storm will weaken since many examples of intensifying storms surrounded by such dry air can be found. Idealized simulations will be used to evaluate the role of dry air. Finally, two case studies of supposedly "prime examples" of SAL influence will show that the negative influences of the SAL are perhaps too readily ascribed to individual storms that fail to reach their maximum potential intensity.

  12. Predictive models for pressure ulcers from intensive care unit electronic health records using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaewprag, Pacharmon; Newton, Cheryl; Vermillion, Brenda; Hyun, Sookyung; Huang, Kun; Machiraju, Raghu

    2017-07-05

    We develop predictive models enabling clinicians to better understand and explore patient clinical data along with risk factors for pressure ulcers in intensive care unit patients from electronic health record data. Identifying accurate risk factors of pressure ulcers is essential to determining appropriate prevention strategies; in this work we examine medication, diagnosis, and traditional Braden pressure ulcer assessment scale measurements as patient features. In order to predict pressure ulcer incidence and better understand the structure of related risk factors, we construct Bayesian networks from patient features. Bayesian network nodes (features) and edges (conditional dependencies) are simplified with statistical network techniques. Upon reviewing a network visualization of our model, our clinician collaborators were able to identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. We present a three-stage framework for predictive analysis of patient clinical data: 1) Developing electronic health record feature extraction functions with assistance of clinicians, 2) simplifying features, and 3) building Bayesian network predictive models. We evaluate all combinations of Bayesian network models from different search algorithms, scoring functions, prior structure initializations, and sets of features. From the EHRs of 7,717 ICU patients, we construct Bayesian network predictive models from 86 medication, diagnosis, and Braden scale features. Our model not only identifies known and suspected high PU risk factors, but also substantially increases sensitivity of the prediction - nearly three times higher comparing to logistical regression models - without sacrificing the overall accuracy. We visualize a representative model with which our clinician collaborators identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. Given the strong adverse effect of pressure ulcers

  13. Evaluation of the predictive indices for candidemia in an adult intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Gambero Gaspar

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: To evaluate predictive indices for candidemia in an adult intensive care unit (ICU and to propose a new index. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted between January 2011 and December 2012. This study was performed in an ICU in a tertiary care hospital at a public university and included 114 patients staying in the adult ICU for at least 48 hours. The association of patient variables with candidemia was analyzed. RESULTS: There were 18 (15.8% proven cases of candidemia and 96 (84.2% cases without candidemia. Univariate analysis revealed the following risk factors: parenteral nutrition, severe sepsis, surgical procedure, dialysis, pancreatitis, acute renal failure, and an APACHE II score higher than 20. For the Candida score index, the odds ratio was 8.50 (95% CI, 2.57 to 28.09; the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.78, 0.71, 0.33, and 0.94, respectively. With respect to the clinical predictor index, the odds ratio was 9.45 (95%CI, 2.06 to 43.39; the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.89, 0.54, 0.27, and 0.96, respectively. The proposed candidemia index cutoff was 8.5; the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.77, 0.70, 0.33, and 0.94, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Candida score and clinical predictor index excluded candidemia satisfactorily. The effectiveness of the candidemia index was comparable to that of the Candida score.

  14. Simple tool for prediction of parotid gland sparing in intensity-modulated radiation therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gensheimer, Michael F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Washington Medical Center, Seattle, WA (United States); Hummel-Kramer, Sharon M., E-mail: sharonhummel@comcast.net [Department of Radiation Oncology, VA Puget Sound Health Care System, Seattle, WA (United States); Cain, David; Quang, Tony S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, VA Puget Sound Health Care System, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Sparing one or both parotid glands is a key goal when planning head and neck cancer radiation treatment. If the planning target volume (PTV) overlaps one or both parotid glands substantially, it may not be possible to achieve adequate gland sparing. This finding results in physicians revising their PTV contours after an intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plan has been run and reduces workflow efficiency. We devised a simple formula for predicting mean parotid gland dose from the overlap of the parotid gland and isotropically expanded PTV contours. We tested the tool using 44 patients from 2 institutions and found agreement between predicted and actual parotid gland doses (mean absolute error = 5.3 Gy). This simple method could increase treatment planning efficiency by improving the chance that the first plan presented to the physician will have optimal parotid gland sparing.

  15. Combination of Lidar Elevations, Bathymetric Data, and Urban Infrastructure in a Sub-Grid Model for Predicting Inundation in New York City during Hurricane Sandy

    CERN Document Server

    Loftis, Jon Derek; Hamilton, Stuart E; Forrest, David R

    2014-01-01

    We present the geospatial methods in conjunction with results of a newly developed storm surge and sub-grid inundation model which was applied in New York City during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Sub-grid modeling takes a novel approach for partial wetting and drying within grid cells, eschewing the conventional hydrodynamic modeling method by nesting a sub-grid containing high-resolution lidar topography and fine scale bathymetry within each computational grid cell. In doing so, the sub-grid modeling method is heavily dependent on building and street configuration provided by the DEM. The results of spatial comparisons between the sub-grid model and FEMA's maximum inundation extents in New York City yielded an unparalleled absolute mean distance difference of 38m and an average of 75% areal spatial match. An in-depth error analysis reveals that the modeled extent contour is well correlated with the FEMA extent contour in most areas, except in several distinct areas where differences in special features cause sig...

  16. TAMDAR Observation Assimilation in WRF 3D-Var and Its Impact on Hurricane Ike (2008) Forecast

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hong-Li WANG; Xiang-Yu HUANG

    2012-01-01

    This study evaluates the impact of atmospheric observations from the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) observing system on numerical weather prediction of hurricane Ike (2008) using three-dimensional data assimilation system for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model (WRF 3D-Var). The TAMDAR data assimilation capability is added to WRF 3D-Var by incorporating the TAMDAR observation operator and corresponding observation processing procedure. Two 6-h cycling data assimilation and forecast experiments are conducted. Track and intensity forecasts are verified against the best track data from the National Hurricane Center. The results show that, on average, assimilating TAMDAR observations has a positive impact on the forecasts of hurricane Ike. The TAMDAR data assimilation reduces the track errors by about 30 km for 72-h forecasts. Improvements in intensity forecasts are also seen after four 6-h data assimilation cycles. Diagnostics show that assimilation of TAMDAR data improves subtropical ridge and steering flow in regions along Ike's track, resulting in better forecasts.

  17. Case study on visualizing hurricanes using illustration-inspired techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Alark; Caban, Jesus; Rheingans, Penny; Sparling, Lynn

    2009-01-01

    The devastating power of hurricanes was evident during the 2005 hurricane season, the most active season on record. This has prompted increased efforts by researchers to understand the physical processes that underlie the genesis, intensification, and tracks of hurricanes. This research aims at facilitating an improved understanding into the structure of hurricanes with the aid of visualization techniques. Our approach was developed by a mixed team of visualization and domain experts. To better understand these systems, and to explore their representation in NWP models, we use a variety of illustration-inspired techniques to visualize their structure and time evolution. Illustration-inspired techniques aid in the identification of the amount of vertical wind shear in a hurricane, which can help meteorologists predict dissipation. Illustration-style visualization, in combination with standard visualization techniques, helped explore the vortex rollup phenomena and the mesovortices contained within. We evaluated the effectiveness of our visualization with the help of six hurricane experts. The expert evaluation showed that the illustration-inspired techniques were preferred over existing tools. Visualization of the evolution of structural features is a prelude to a deeper visual analysis of the underlying dynamics.

  18. Modeling and Predicting Tissue Movement and Deformation for High Intensity Focused Ultrasound Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Xiangyun; Yuan, Zhiyong; Lai, Qianfeng; Guo, Jiaxiang; Zheng, Qi; Yu, Sijiao; Tong, Qianqian; Si, Weixin; Sun, Mingui

    2015-01-01

    Purpose In ultrasound-guided High Intensity Focused Ultrasound (HIFU) therapy, the target tissue (such as a tumor) often moves and/or deforms in response to an external force. This problem creates difficulties in treating patients and can lead to the destruction of normal tissue. In order to solve this problem, we present a novel method to model and predict the movement and deformation of the target tissue during ultrasound-guided HIFU therapy. Methods Our method computationally predicts the position of the target tissue under external force. This prediction allows appropriate adjustments in the focal region during the application of HIFU so that the treatment head is kept aligned with the diseased tissue through the course of therapy. To accomplish this goal, we utilize the cow tissue as the experimental target tissue to collect spatial sequences of ultrasound images using the HIFU equipment. A Geodesic Localized Chan-Vese (GLCV) model is developed to segment the target tissue images. A 3D target tissue model is built based on the segmented results. A versatile particle framework is constructed based on Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) to model the movement and deformation of the target tissue. Further, an iterative parameter estimation algorithm is utilized to determine the essential parameters of the versatile particle framework. Finally, the versatile particle framework with the determined parameters is used to estimate the movement and deformation of the target tissue. Results To validate our method, we compare the predicted contours with the ground truth contours. We found that the lowest, highest and average Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) values between predicted and ground truth contours were, respectively, 0.9615, 0.9770 and 0.9697. Conclusion Our experimental result indicates that the proposed method can effectively predict the dynamic contours of the moving and deforming tissue during ultrasound-guided HIFU therapy. PMID:25993644

  19. A Statistical Cyclone Intensity Prediction (SCIP) model for the Bay of Bengal

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S D Kotal; S K Roy Bhowmik; P K Kundu; Ananda Kumar Das

    2008-04-01

    A statistical model for predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal has been proposed. The model is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. The model parameters are determined from the database of 62 cyclones that developed over the Bay of Bengal during the period 1981–2000. The parameters selected as predictors are: initial storm intensity, intensity changes during past 12 hours, storm motion speed, initial storm latitude position, vertical wind shear averaged along the storm track, vorticity at 850 hPa, Divergence at 200 hPa and sea surface temperature (SST). When the model is tested with the dependent samples of 62 cyclones, the forecast skill of the model for forecasts up to 72 hours is found to be reasonably good. The average absolute errors (AAE) are less than 10 knots for forecasts up to 36 hours and maximum forecast error of order 14 knots occurs at 60 hours and 72 hours. When the model is tested with the independent samples of 15 cyclones (during 2000 to 2007), the AAE is found to be less than 13 knots (ranging from 5.1 to 12.5 knots) for forecast up to 72 hours. The model is found to be superior to the empirical model proposed by Roy Bhowmik et al (2007) for the Bay of Bengal.

  20. Situational Motivation and Perceived Intensity: Their Interaction in Predicting Changes in Positive Affect from Physical Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Guérin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available There is evidence that affective experiences surrounding physical activity can contribute to the proper self-regulation of an active lifestyle. Motivation toward physical activity, as portrayed by self-determination theory, has been linked to positive affect, as has the intensity of physical activity, especially of a preferred nature. The purpose of this experimental study was to examine the interaction between situational motivation and intensity [i.e., ratings of perceived exertion (RPE] in predicting changes in positive affect following an acute bout of preferred physical activity, namely, running. Fourty-one female runners engaged in a 30-minute self-paced treadmill run in a laboratory context. Situational motivation for running, pre- and post-running positive affect, and RPE were assessed via validated self-report questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed a significant interaction effect between RPE and introjection (P<.05 but not between RPE and identified regulation or intrinsic motivation. At low levels of introjection, the influence of RPE on the change in positive affect was considerable, with higher RPE ratings being associated with greater increases in positive affect. The implications of the findings in light of SDT principles as well as the potential contingencies between the regulations and RPE in predicting positive affect among women are discussed.

  1. How Hurricanes Get Their Names

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张梅荐

    2000-01-01

    The first people who gave names to hurricanes were those who knew them best the people of Puerto Rico. The small island of Puerto Rico is in the West Indies, off the coast of Florida. This is where all the hurricanes begin that strike the east coast of the United States.

  2. Predicting changes in high-intensity intermittent running performance with acute responses to short jump rope workouts in children

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Buchheit, Martin; Rabbani, Alireza; Beigi, Hamid Taghi

    2014-01-01

    The aims of the present study were to 1) examine whether individual HR and RPE responses to a jump rope workout could be used to predict changes in high-intensity intermittent running performance in young athletes, and 2...

  3. Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; Yu, Xiaoyong; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rinke, Annette; Cui, Xuefeng; Kravitz, Ben; Lenton, Andrew; Watanabe, Shingo; Ji, Duoying

    2015-10-26

    Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase by a factor of 2-7 for each degree of increase in mean global temperature. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 8 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those in RCP4.5, but sulphate injection would have to double between 2020 and 2070 to balance RCP 4.5 to nearly 10 Tg SO2 yr-1, with consequent implications for damage to stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent Generalized Extreme Value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges from 1923 and observed temperatures. The numbers of storm surge events as big as the one that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this is only marginally statistically significant. However, when sea level rise differences at 2070 between RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored in to coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5 year events and perhaps halved for 50 year surges.

  4. Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, John C; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; Yu, Xiaoyong; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rinke, Annette; Cui, Xuefeng; Kravitz, Ben; Lenton, Andrew; Watanabe, Shingo; Ji, Duoying

    2015-11-10

    Devastating floods due to Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However, the frequency of the most intense storms is likely to increase with rises in sea surface temperatures. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane Main Development Region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may mitigate hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using eight earth system model simulations of climate under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those temperature increases in the RCP4.5. However, sulfate injection would have to double (to nearly 10 teragrams of SO2 per year) between 2020 and 2070 to balance the RCP4.5, approximately the equivalent of a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 2 y, with consequent implications for stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent generalized extreme value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges and observed temperatures since 1923. The number of storm surge events as big as the one caused by the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this reduction is only marginally statistically significant. Nevertheless, when sea level rise differences in 2070 between the RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored into coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5-y events and about halved for 50-y surges.

  5. 76 FR 63541 - Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-13

    ...-2010-0288] Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants AGENCY: Nuclear... Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants.'' This regulatory guide provides licensees and applicants with... hurricane and design-basis hurricane-generated missiles that a nuclear power plant should be designed...

  6. Cumulative Time Series Representation for Code Blue prediction in the Intensive Care Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salas-Boni, Rebeca; Bai, Yong; Hu, Xiao

    2015-01-01

    Patient monitors in hospitals generate a high number of false alarms that compromise patients care and burden clinicians. In our previous work, an attempt to alleviate this problem by finding combinations of monitor alarms and laboratory test that were predictive of code blue events, called SuperAlarms. Our current work consists of developing a novel time series representation that accounts for both cumulative effects and temporality was developed, and it is applied to code blue prediction in the intensive care unit (ICU). The health status of patients is represented both by a term frequency approach, TF, often used in natural language processing; and by our novel cumulative approach. We call this representation "weighted accumulated occurrence representation", or WAOR. These two representations are fed into a L1 regularized logistic regression classifier, and are used to predict code blue events. Our performance was assessed online in an independent set. We report the sensitivity of our algorithm at different time windows prior to the code blue event, as well as the work-up to detect ratio and the proportion of false code blue detections divided by the number of false monitor alarms. We obtained a better performance with our cumulative representation, retaining a sensitivity close to our previous work while improving the other metrics.

  7. Development of a CME-associated geomagnetic storm intensity prediction tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C. C.; DeHart, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    From 1995 to 2012, the Wind spacecraft recorded 168 magnetic cloud (MC) events. Among those events, 79 were found to have upstream shock waves and their source locations on the Sun were identified. Using a recipe of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz initial turning direction after shock (Wu et al., 1996, GRL), it is found that the north-south polarity of 66 (83.5%) out of the 79 events were accurately predicted. These events were tested and further analyzed, reaffirming that the Bz intial turning direction was accurate. The results also indicate that 37 of the 79 MCs originate from the north (of the Sun) averaged a Dst_min of -119 nT, whereas 42 of the MCs originating from the south (of the Sun) averaged -89 nT. In an effort to provide this research to others, a website was built that incorporated various tools and pictures to predict the intensity of the geomagnetic storms. The tool is capable of predicting geomagnetic storms with different ranges of Dst_min (from no-storm to gigantic storms). This work was supported by Naval Research Lab HBCU/MI Internship program and Chief of Naval Research.

  8. Evaluation of the CPTEC/AGCM wind forecasts during the hurricane Catarina occurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Santos

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In March 2004 occurred the first hurricane registered at South Atlantic Ocean. The system named Catarina begun as an extratropical cyclone and remained quasi-stationary some days over the South Atlantic Ocean. The system displaced westward, acquiring characteristics of a hurricane and hit the Brazilian State of Santa Catarina (SC between the 27 and the 28 March, causing destruction and deaths. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies, Atmospheric Global Circulation Model (CPTEC/AGCM forecast performance of some synoptic patterns associated with Catarina. The surface wind and reduced Sea Level Pressure (SLP were examined. Moreover, the implementation of 10-m wind forecast (V10m was evaluated. This variable was not available in the CPTEC/AGCM during the Catarina occurrence and in this study it was compared with the wind at first sigma-level of the AGCM. The CPTEC-Eta reanalyses were used to comparisons. According to reanalyses, more intense winds were observed in northeast, south and southwest edges of the cyclone. The system was not predicted by the CPTEC/AGCM forecasts longer than 24 h, then the analyses were carried out only for 24 h forecasts. In general, the first sigma-level wind forecasts underestimated the wind magnitude and the cyclone intensity. However, the Catarina formation and its displacement southeastward between the 20 and the 21 March were well represented by the model. The CPTEC/AGCM presents deficiencies to predict the system intensity, but in short-range forecasts it was possible to predict the system formation and its atypical trajectory. The wind results from the new implementation did not exhibit better performance compared with the wind at first sigma-level. These results will be better investigated in the future.

  9. How would peak rainfall intensity affect runoff predictions using conceptual water balance models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, B.

    2015-06-01

    Most hydrological models use continuous daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for streamflow estimation. With the projected increase in mean surface temperature, hydrological processes are set to intensify irrespective of the underlying changes to the mean precipitation. The effect of an increase in rainfall intensity on the long-term water balance is, however, not adequately accounted for in the commonly used hydrological models. This study follows from a previous comparative analysis of a non-stationary daily series of stream flow of a forested watershed (River Rimbaud) in the French Alps (area = 1.478 km2) (1966-2006). Non-stationarity in the recorded stream flow occurred as a result of a severe wild fire in 1990. Two daily models (AWBM and SimHyd) were initially calibrated for each of three distinct phases in relation to the well documented land disturbance. At the daily and monthly time scales, both models performed satisfactorily with the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) varying from 0.77 to 0.92. When aggregated to the annual time scale, both models underestimated the flow by about 22% with a reduced NSE at about 0.71. Exploratory data analysis was undertaken to relate daily peak hourly rainfall intensity to the discrepancy between the observed and modelled daily runoff amount. Preliminary results show that the effect of peak hourly rainfall intensity on runoff prediction is insignificant, and model performance is unlikely to improve when peak daily precipitation is included. Trend analysis indicated that the large decrease of precipitation when daily precipitation amount exceeded 10-20 mm may have contributed greatly to the decrease in stream flow of this forested watershed.

  10. Major vessel occlusion may predict subtherapeutic anticoagulation intensity and feasibility of administration of intravenous thrombolytics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jun Young; Jung, Seunguk; Park, Hyun

    2017-01-01

    Objective We investigated the association between the presence of major vessel occlusion (MVO) and the intensity of the International Normalized Ratio (INR) in cardioembolic high-risk patients taking warfarin. We also evaluated whether the presence of MVO could predict the subtherapeutic range of INR ≤1.7 ensuring safe administration of intravenous thrombolytics. Methods The medical records of 177 cardioembolic stroke patients who were taking warfarin between April, 2008 and March, 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression analysis was performed to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for the association between vessel occlusion and intensity of INR. To predict INR ≤1.7, decision tree analysis was performed. Results INR was inversely associated with MVO in an unadjusted model (OR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.17–0.76), and in a model adjusted for initial NIHSS score and time from symptom onset to arrival (OR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.11–0.73). Fifty-two of 58 (89.7%) patients with MVO had an INR ≤1.7, compared with 83 of 119 (69.7%) patients without MVO. Indication for anticoagulation agent use was dichotomized into NVAF and others, and applied to the subgroup of patients with MVO. All patients with NVAF (31/31, 100%) had INR ≤1.7, while 21 of 27 of the other patients (77.8%) had INR ≤1.7. Conclusions Low INR at presentation in cardioembolic stroke patients during anticoagulation treatment was associated with occurrence of major vessel occlusive stroke. Presence of MVO and indications for anticoagulation may be utilized to ensure the feasibility of administration of intravenous thrombolytics. PMID:28158211

  11. Predictive factors for the admission of a newborn in an intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Danielle Ribeiro Lages

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Analytical documentary and retrospective study aiming at determining association between predictive factors for admission of a newborn in a public Intensive Care Unit and maternal features. The study sample had 376 neonates admitted in 2009. Results showed: mothers aged between 19 and 25 years (43.4%, primary education (52.4%, living with a partner (66.2%. Prenatal care was done by 84.8% of them, and 62% presented gestational pathologies. Out of all neonates, 55.1% were male, 85.4% preterm, 83% underweight, 57.2% presented respiratory problems. The bivariate analysis showed a significant association between birth weight and growth (p = 0.04 between maternal age and Apgar in the 1st minute (p = 0.04 and maternal age and Apgar score in the 5th minute (p = 0.01. Maternal age and number of prenatal appointments influence on the admission of the neonates to the Intensive Care Unit because they are related to birth weight and Apgar scores.

  12. A Look Inside Hurricane Alma

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific started off with a whimper late last month as Alma, a Category 2 hurricane, slowly made its way up the coast of Baja California, packing sustained winds of 110 miles per hour and gusts of 135 miles per hour. The above image of the hurricane was acquired on May 29, 2002, and displays the rainfall rates occurring within the storm. Click the image above to see an animated data visualization (3.8 MB) of the interior of Hurricane Alma. The images of the clouds seen at the beginning of the movie were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's (NOAA's) Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite (GOES) network. As the movie continues, the clouds are peeled away to reveal an image of rainfall levels in the hurricane. The rainfall data were obtained by the Precipitation Radar aboard NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The Precipitation Radar bounces radio waves off of clouds to retrieve a reading of the number of large, rain-sized droplets within the clouds. Using these data, scientists can tell how much precipitation is occurring within and beneath a hurricane. In the movie, yellow denotes areas where 0.5 inches of rain is falling per hour, green denotes 1 inch per hour, and red denotes over 2 inches per hour. (Please note that high resolution still images of Hurricane Alma are available in the NASA Visible Earth in TIFF format.) Image and animation courtesy Lori Perkins, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

  13. Effects and outcomes of Caribbean hurricanes in a climate change scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lugo, A E

    2000-11-15

    Hurricanes are complex disturbance systems with significant effects on vegetation and built-up land. This paper summarizes research on the effects and outcomes of hurricanes on Caribbean forests. Twelve effects and outcome topics are presented: sudden and massive tree mortality; delayed patterns of tree mortality; alternative methods of forest regeneration; opportunities for a change in successional direction; high species turnover and opportunities for species change in forests; diversity of age classes; faster biomass and nutrient turnover; species substitutions and changes in turnover time of biomass and nutrients; lower aboveground biomass in mature vegetation; carbon sinks; selective pressure on organisms; and convergence of community structure and organization. Effects of hurricanes on urban systems are also discussed. While there is scientific uncertainty as to whether hurricane frequencies and intensity will change as a result of global climate change, available understanding on the effects and outcomes of hurricanes can be used to anticipate possible effects of either increasing or decreasing hurricane frequency and intensity. Proposed mitigation actions and research priorities can be effective and desirable even if the frequency and intensity of hurricanes remains unchanged.

  14. Cystatin C at Admission in the Intensive Care Unit Predicts Mortality among Elderly Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalboni, Maria Aparecida; Beraldo, Daniel de Oliveira; Quinto, Beata Marie Redublo; Blaya, Rosângela; Narciso, Roberto; Oliveira, Moacir; Monte, Júlio César Martins; Durão, Marcelino de Souza; Cendoroglo, Miguel; Pavão, Oscar Fernando; Batista, Marcelo Costa

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. Cystatin C has been used in the critical care setting to evaluate renal function. Nevertheless, it has also been found to correlate with mortality, but it is not clear whether this association is due to acute kidney injury (AKI) or to other mechanism. Objective. To evaluate whether serum cystatin C at intensive care unit (ICU) entry predicts AKI and mortality in elderly patients. Materials and Methods. It was a prospective study of ICU elderly patients without AKI at admission. We evaluated 400 patients based on normality for serum cystatin C at ICU entry, of whom 234 (58%) were selected and 45 (19%) developed AKI. Results. We observed that higher serum levels of cystatin C did not predict AKI (1.05 ± 0.48 versus 0.94 ± 0.36 mg/L; P = 0.1). However, it was an independent predictor of mortality, H.R. = 6.16 (95% CI 1.46-26.00; P = 0.01), in contrast with AKI, which was not associated with death. In the ROC curves, cystatin C also provided a moderate and significant area (0.67; P = 0.03) compared to AKI (0.47; P = 0.6) to detect death. Conclusion. We demonstrated that higher cystatin C levels are an independent predictor of mortality in ICU elderly patients and may be used as a marker of poor prognosis.

  15. Predictive monitoring for respiratory decompensation leading to urgent unplanned intubation in the neonatal intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Matthew T; Vergales, Brooke D; Paget-Brown, Alix O; Smoot, Terri J; Lake, Douglas E; Hudson, John L; Delos, John B; Kattwinkel, John; Moorman, J Randall

    2013-01-01

    Infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), and especially those born with very low birth weight (VLBW; endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation. Intubation and mechanical ventilation are associated with increased morbidity, particularly in urgent unplanned cases. We tested the hypothesis that the systemic response associated with respiratory decompensation can be detected from physiological monitoring and that statistical models of bedside monitoring data can identify infants at increased risk of urgent unplanned intubation. We studied 287 VLBW infants consecutively admitted to our NICU and found 96 events in 51 patients, excluding intubations occurring within 12 h of a previous extubation. In order of importance in a multivariable statistical model, we found that the characteristics of reduced O(2) saturation, especially as heart rate was falling; increased heart rate correlation with respiratory rate; and the amount of apnea were all significant independent predictors. The predictive model, validated internally by bootstrap, had a receiver-operating characteristic area of 0.84 ± 0.04. We propose that predictive monitoring in the NICU for urgent unplanned intubation may improve outcomes by allowing clinicians to intervene noninvasively before intubation is required.

  16. Hurricane Risk Variability along the Gulf of Mexico Coastline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepanier, Jill C.; Ellis, Kelsey N.; Tucker, Clay S.

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran’s I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs. PMID:25767885

  17. Hurricane risk variability along the Gulf of Mexico coastline.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill C Trepanier

    Full Text Available Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency, the scale or σ (range, and the shape or ξ (intensity of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant, suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran's I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs.

  18. Hurricane risk variability along the Gulf of Mexico coastline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepanier, Jill C; Ellis, Kelsey N; Tucker, Clay S

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran's I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs.

  19. Examining Pacific and Atlantic Hurricane Stage Duration and Length Since 1980

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wachtel, C. J.; Godek, M. L.

    2015-12-01

    Examining Pacific and Atlantic Hurricane Stage Duration and Length Since 1980Cassidy Wachtel and Melissa L. GodekDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, State University of New York College at Oneonta, New York 13820 Abstract:Each year hurricanes impact thousands of people and over time changes in hurricane characteristics, such as intensity and frequency, have been identified. This study aims to examine changes in hurricane stage duration and track length of West Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes between 1980 and 2013. Category 2 through 5 hurricanes are analyzed as they evolved through the full life cycle of a hurricane (tropical depression to tropical storm to category). The NOAA National Ocean Service hurricane reanalysis datasets are used to identify 286 storms which are statistically analyzed by category for 1) temporal changes in stage duration with time and 2) temporal changes in stage track lengths with time. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory daily mean composites of variables such as vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures are then examined to explain the temporal tendencies that may be related to climate change. Preliminary results indicate that category 2, 4 and 5 storms experienced an overall decrease in stage duration since 1980. For storms of these magnitudes, generally more rapid intensification to category has occurred over time. Contrarily, increased stage duration is detected for hurricanes that reached category 3 status, showing that these storms have strengthened more slowly with time. In all categories, a few unique cases occurred that exhibited stage durations greater than 1 standard deviation from the mean of the long term trend. These cases require further scrutiny for the environmental conditions that might explain the anomalous departures. Keywords: Hurricanes, West Atlantic Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, Storm Tracks, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression, Hurricane Stage

  20. Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.; Shugart, Herman H.

    2017-02-01

    Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model-based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes, manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the

  1. Nova Scotia Power response to Hurricane Juan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-10-01

    Hurricane Juan hit the Halifax Regional Municipality on September 28, 2003, creating the largest outage in Nova Scotia Power's history. This detailed report documents the extensive damage that Hurricane Juan caused to the power transmission and distribution system in Nova Scotia. It also reviews the massive power restoration effort, with reference to numerous interviews, computer records and data logs which offer a wide range of observations, statistics and insights into the preparation and performance of Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) and the efforts of other key organizations following the storm. NSPI organized a recovery effort that matched the intensity of the hurricane. A fire in the Scotia Square Office Tower caused the evacuation of the company's call centre. The Tufts Cove station in Dartmouth, which generates 400 megawatts of power, was forced to shut down. Excess electricity was moved into New Brunswick and other jurisdictions to maintain system stability. The main priority was to restore customers back to service. Within 5 days of the hurricane, 95 per cent of those who lost power had service restored. Hurricane Juan caused the most damage to the transmission and distribution system in NSPI's history. Three out of five high capacity transmission lines were put out of service. Three 120-foot high transmission towers fell, and 17 main transmission lines were damaged and put out of service. Forty-five major substations were affected and 145 distribution feeders were damaged or tripped off, including 106 in the Halifax Regional Municipality. Large portions of 4,500 kilometres of local distribution lines in the Halifax Regional Municipality were damaged, including thousands of kilometers across the Northeast. The power crew, consisting of 2,000 individuals from the region and neighbouring utilities in New Brunswick and Maine, worked for 15 consecutive days to replace 275 transformers, 760 power poles, and 125,000 metres of conductor wire. NSPI

  2. Scoring Systems for Outcome Prediction in a Cardiac Surgical Intensive Care Unit: A Comparative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exarchopoulos, Themistocles; Charitidou, Efstratia; Dedeilias, Panagiotis; Charitos, Christos; Routsi, Christina

    2015-07-01

    Most scoring systems used to predict clinical outcome in critical care were not designed for application in cardiac surgery patients. To compare the predictive ability of the most widely used scoring systems (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation [APACHE] II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS] II, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA]) and of 2 specialized systems (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation [EuroSCORE] II and the cardiac surgery score [CASUS]) for clinical outcome in patients after cardiac surgery. Consecutive patients admitted to a cardiac surgical intensive care unit (CSICU) were prospectively studied. Data on the preoperative condition, intraoperative parameters, and postoperative course were collected. EuroSCORE II, CASUS, and scores from 3 general severity-scoring systems (APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA) were calculated on the first postoperative day. Clinical outcome was defined as 30-day mortality and in-hospital morbidity. A total of 150 patients were included. Thirty-day mortality was 6%. CASUS was superior in outcome prediction, both in relation to discrimination (area under curve, 0.89) and calibration (Brier score = 0.043, χ(2) = 2.2, P = .89), followed by EuroSCORE II for 30-day mortality (area under curve, 0.87) and SOFA for morbidity (Spearman ρ= 0.37 and 0.35 for the CSICU length of stay and duration of mechanical ventilation, respectively; Wilcoxon W = 367.5, P = .03 for probability of readmission to CSICU). CASUS can be recommended as the most reliable and beneficial option for benchmarking and risk stratification in cardiac surgery patients. ©2015 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.

  3. Diagnostics comparing sea surface temperature feedbacks from operational hurricane forecasts to observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian D. Lloyd

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the ability of recent versions of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Operational Hurricane Forecast Model (GHM to reproduce the observed relationship between hurricane intensity and hurricane-induced Sea Surface Temperature (SST cooling. The analysis was performed by taking a Lagrangian composite of all hurricanes in the North Atlantic from 1998–2009 in observations and 2005–2009 for the GHM. A marked improvement in the intensity-SST relationship for the GHM compared to observations was found between the years 2005 and 2006–2009 due to the introduction of warm-core eddies, a representation of the loop current, and changes to the drag coefficient parameterization for bulk turbulent flux computation. A Conceptual Hurricane Intensity Model illustrates the essential steady-state characteristics of the intensity-SST relationship and is explained by two coupled equations for the atmosphere and ocean. The conceptual model qualitatively matches observations and the 2006–2009 period in the GHM, and presents supporting evidence for the conclusion that weaker upper oceanic thermal stratification in the Gulf of Mexico, caused by the introduction of the loop current and warm core eddies, is crucial to explaining the observed SST-intensity pattern. The diagnostics proposed by the conceptual model offer an independent set of metrics for comparing operational hurricane forecast models to observations.

  4. Hurricane Imaging Radiometer Wind Speed and Rain Rate Retrievals during the 2010 GRIP Flight Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahawneh, Saleem; Farrar, Spencer; Johnson, James; Jones, W. Linwood; Roberts, Jason; Biswas, Sayak; Cecil, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Microwave remote sensing observations of hurricanes, from NOAA and USAF hurricane surveillance aircraft, provide vital data for hurricane research and operations, for forecasting the intensity and track of tropical storms. The current operational standard for hurricane wind speed and rain rate measurements is the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a nadir viewing passive microwave airborne remote sensor. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer, HIRAD, will extend the nadir viewing SFMR capability to provide wide swath images of wind speed and rain rate, while flying on a high altitude aircraft. HIRAD was first flown in the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes, GRIP, NASA hurricane field experiment in 2010. This paper reports on geophysical retrieval results and provides hurricane images from GRIP flights. An overview of the HIRAD instrument and the radiative transfer theory based, wind speed/rain rate retrieval algorithm is included. Results are presented for hurricane wind speed and rain rate for Earl and Karl, with comparison to collocated SFMR retrievals and WP3D Fuselage Radar images for validation purposes.

  5. Predictability of bone density at posterior mandibular implant sites using cone-beam computed tomography intensity values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkhader, Mustafa; Hudieb, Malik; Khader, Yousef

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the predictability of bone density at posterior mandibular implant sites using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) intensity values. CBCT cross-sectional images for 436 posterior mandibular implant sites were selected for the study. Using Invivo software (Anatomage, San Jose, California, USA), two observers classified the bone density into three categories: low, intermediate, and high, and CBCT intensity values were generated. Based on the consensus of the two observers, 15.6% of sites were of low bone density, 47.9% were of intermediate density, and 36.5% were of high density. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis showed that CBCT intensity values had a high predictive power for predicting high density sites (area under the curve [AUC] =0.94, P density sites (AUC = 0.81, P density sites was 218 (sensitivity = 0.77 and specificity = 0.76) and the best cut-off value for intensity to predict high density sites was 403 (sensitivity = 0.93 and specificity = 0.77). CBCT intensity values are considered useful for predicting bone density at posterior mandibular implant sites.

  6. Importance of air-sea interaction on wind waves, storm surge and hurricane simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yingjian; Yu, Xiping

    2017-04-01

    It was reported from field observations that wind stress coefficient levels off and even decreases when the wind speed exceeds 30-40 m/s. We propose a wave boundary layer model (WBLM) based on the momentum and energy conservation equations. Taking into account the physical details of the air-sea interaction process as well as the energy dissipation due to the presence of sea spray, this model successfully predicts the decreasing tendency of wind stress coefficient. Then WBLM is embedded in the current-wave coupled model FVCOM-SWAVE to simulate surface waves and storm surge under the forcing of hurricane Katrina. Numerical results based on WBLM agree well with the observed data of NDBC buoys and tide gauges. Sensitivity analysis of different wind stress evaluation methods also shows that large anomalies of significant wave height and surge elevation are captured along the passage of hurricane core. The differences of the local wave height are up to 13 m, which is in accordance with the general knowledge that the ocean dynamic processes under storm conditions are very sensitive to the amount of momentum exchange at the air-sea interface. In the final part of the research, the reduced wind stress coefficient is tested in the numerical forecast of hurricane Katrina. A parabolic formula fitted to WBLM is employed in the atmosphere-ocean coupled model COAWST. Considering the joint effects of ocean cooling and reduced wind drag, the intensity metrics - the minimum sea level pressure and the maximum 10 m wind speed - are in good inconsistency with the best track result. Those methods, which predict the wind stress coefficient that increase or saturate in extreme wind condition, underestimate the hurricane intensity. As a whole, we unify the evaluation methods of wind stress in different numerical models and yield reasonable results. Although it is too early to conclude that WBLM is totally applicable or the drag coefficient does decrease for high wind speed, our current

  7. Household Adjustments to Hurricane Katrina

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Meri Davlasheridze; Qin Fan

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines household adjustments to Hurricane Katrina by estimating the effects of Katrina-induced damages on changes in household demographics and income distributions in the Orleans Parish...

  8. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  9. Impact of bogus vortex for track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclone

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Randhir Singh; P K Pal; C M Kishtawal; P C Joshi

    2005-08-01

    The initialization scheme designed to improve the representation of a tropical cyclone in the initial condition is tested during Orissa super cyclone (1999) over Bay of Bengal using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University — National Center for Atmospheric Research (Penn State — NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). A series of numerical experiments are conducted to generate initial vortices by assimilating the bogus wind information into MM5. Wind speed and location of the tropical cyclone obtained from best track data are used to define maximum wind speed, and centre of the storm respectively, in the initial vortex. The initialization scheme produced an initial vortex that was well adapted to the forecast model and was much more realistic in size and intensity than the storm structure obtained from the NCEP analysis. Using this scheme, the 24-h, 48-h, and 72-h forecast errors for this case was 63, 58, and 46 km, respectively, compared with 120, 335, and 550km for the non-vortex initialized case starting from the NCEP global analysis. When bogus vortices are introduced into initial conditions, the significant improvements in the storm intensity predictions are also seen. The impact of the vortex size on the structure of the initial vortex is also evaluated. We found that when the radius of maximum wind (RMW) of the specified vortex is smaller than that of which can be resolved by the model, the specified vortex is not well adapted by the model. In contrast, when the vortex is sufficiently large for it to be resolved on horizontal grid, but not so large to be unrealistic, more accurate storm structure is obtained.

  10. Recovery Migration After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Spatial Concentration and Intensification in the Migration System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Katherine J; Fussell, Elizabeth; DeWaard, Jack

    2015-08-01

    Changes in the human migration systems of the Gulf of Mexico coastline counties affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita provide an example of how climate change may affect coastal populations. Crude climate change models predict a mass migration of "climate refugees," but an emerging literature on environmental migration suggests that most migration will be short-distance and short-duration within existing migration systems, with implications for the population recovery of disaster-stricken places. In this research, we derive a series of hypotheses on recovery migration predicting how the migration system of hurricane-affected coastline counties in the Gulf of Mexico was likely to have changed between the pre-disaster and the recovery periods. We test these hypotheses using data from the Internal Revenue Service on annual county-level migration flows, comparing the recovery period migration system (2007-2009) with the pre-disaster period (1999-2004). By observing county-to-county ties and flows, we find that recovery migration was strong: the migration system of the disaster-affected coastline counties became more spatially concentrated, while flows within it intensified and became more urbanized. Our analysis demonstrates how migration systems are likely to be affected by the more intense and frequent storms anticipated by climate change scenarios, with implications for the population recovery of disaster-affected places.

  11. Recovery Migration after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Spatial Concentration and Intensification in the Migration System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fussell, Elizabeth; DeWaard, Jack

    2015-01-01

    Changes in the human migration systems of Hurricane Katrina- and Rita-affected Gulf of Mexico coastline counties provide an example of how climate change may affect coastal populations. Crude climate change models predict a mass migration of “climate refugees,” but an emerging literature on environmental migration suggests most migration will be short-distance and short-duration within existing migration systems, with implications for the population recovery of disaster-struck places. In this research, we derive a series of hypotheses on recovery migration predicting how the migration system of hurricane-affected coastline counties in the Gulf of Mexico was likely to have changed between the pre-disaster and the recovery periods. We test these hypotheses using data from the Internal Revenue Service on annual county-level migration flows, comparing the recovery period migration system (2007–2009) to the pre-disaster period (1999–2004). By observing county-to-county ties and flows we find that recovery migration was strong, as the migration system of the disaster-affected coastline counties became more spatially concentrated while flows within it intensified and became more urbanized. Our analysis demonstrates how migration systems are likely to be affected by the more intense and frequent storms anticipated by climate change scenarios with implications for the population recovery of disaster-affected places. PMID:26084982

  12. The Hurricane and Its Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burpee, Robert W.

    Recent population increases in coastal regions of the tropics and subtropics have greatly enhanced man's vulnerability to tropical cyclones. Thus, this book on hurricanes by Robert H. Simpson and Herbert Riehl, two of the leading contributors to hurricane research during the last 35 years, comes along when people of differing backgrounds want to learn more about hurricanes. In the 20 years since Dunn and Miller published Atlantic Hurricanes, technical advances in weather satellites, computer modeling and data processing, and research aircraft have substantially increased the tropical meteorologist's understanding of hurricane structure and dynamics. During this same time, field experiments have led to detailed knowledge of the atmospheric environment within which tropical cyclones are initiated. The authors have attempted to describe many aspects of hurricanes for readers that range from students of meteorology to those concerned with planning for natural hazards in the coastal zone. Because Simpson and Riehl have addressed such a wide audience, many readers with a knowledge of atmospheric science will find that the book is overly descriptive, while readers without some background in physics will find it is too technical.

  13. Donor chimerism early after reduced-intensity conditioning hematopoietic stem cell transplantation predicts relapse and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koreth, John; Kim, Haesook T; Nikiforow, Sarah; Milford, Edgar L; Armand, Philippe; Cutler, Corey; Glotzbecker, Brett; Ho, Vincent T; Antin, Joseph H; Soiffer, Robert J; Ritz, Jerome; Alyea, Edwin P

    2014-10-01

    The impact of early donor cell chimerism on outcomes of T cell-replete reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is ill defined. We evaluated day 30 (D30) and 100 (D100) total donor cell chimerism after RIC HSCT undertaken between 2002 and 2010 at our institution, excluding patients who died or relapsed before D30. When available, donor T cell chimerism was also assessed. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Secondary outcomes included progression-free survival (PFS), relapse, and nonrelapse mortality (NRM). We evaluated 688 patients with hematologic malignancies (48% myeloid and 52% lymphoid) and a median age of 57 years (range, 18 to 74) undergoing RIC HSCT with T cell-replete donor grafts (97% peripheral blood; 92% HLA-matched), with a median follow-up of 58.2 months (range, 12.6 to 120.7). In multivariable analysis, total donor cell and T cell chimerism at D30 and D100 each predicted RIC HSCT outcomes, with D100 total donor cell chimerism most predictive. D100 total donor cell chimerism D100 total donor cell chimerism or T cell chimerism. Low donor chimerism early after RIC HSCT is an independent risk factor for relapse and impaired survival. Donor chimerism assessment early after RIC HSCT can prognosticate for long-term outcomes and help identify high-risk patient cohorts who may benefit from additional therapeutic interventions. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. 2D dynamic studies combined with the surface curvature analysis to predict Arias Intensity amplification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torgoev, Almaz; Havenith, Hans-Balder

    2016-07-01

    A 2D elasto-dynamic modelling of the pure topographic seismic response is performed for six models with a total length of around 23.0 km. These models are reconstructed from the real topographic settings of the landslide-prone slopes situated in the Mailuu-Suu River Valley, Southern Kyrgyzstan. The main studied parameter is the Arias Intensity (Ia, m/sec), which is applied in the GIS-based Newmark method to regionally map the seismically-induced landslide susceptibility. This method maps the Ia values via empirical attenuation laws and our studies investigate a potential to include topographic input into them. Numerical studies analyse several signals with varying shape and changing central frequency values. All tests demonstrate that the spectral amplification patterns directly affect the amplification of the Ia values. These results let to link the 2D distribution of the topographically amplified Ia values with the parameter called as smoothed curvature. The amplification values for the low-frequency signals are better correlated with the curvature smoothed over larger spatial extent, while those values for the high-frequency signals are more linked to the curvature with smaller smoothing extent. The best predictions are provided by the curvature smoothed over the extent calculated according to Geli's law. The sample equations predicting the Ia amplification based on the smoothed curvature are presented for the sinusoid-shape input signals. These laws cannot be directly implemented in the regional Newmark method, as 3D amplification of the Ia values addresses more problem complexities which are not studied here. Nevertheless, our 2D results prepare the theoretical framework which can potentially be applied to the 3D domain and, therefore, represent a robust basis for these future research targets.

  15. The impact of pet loss on the perceived social support and psychological distress of hurricane survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Sarah R; Rhodes, Jean E; Zwiebach, Liza; Chan, Christian S

    2009-06-01

    Associations between pet loss and posthurricane perceived social support and psychological distress were explored. Participants (N = 365) were primarily low-income African American single mothers who were initially part of an educational intervention study. All participants were exposed to Hurricane Katrina, and 47% experienced Hurricane Rita. Three waves of survey data, two from before the hurricanes, were included. Sixty-three participants (17.3%) reported losing a pet due to the hurricanes and their aftermath. Pet loss significantly predicted postdisaster distress, above and beyond demographic variables, pre- and postdisaster perceived social support, predisaster distress, hurricane-related stressors, and human bereavement, an association that was stronger for younger participants. Pet loss was not a significant predictor of postdisaster perceived social support, but the impact of pet loss on perceived social support was significantly greater for participants with low levels of predisaster support.

  16. Persistent influence of tropical North Atlantic wintertime sea surface temperature on the subsequent Atlantic hurricane season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xidong; Liu, Hailong; Foltz, Gregory R.

    2017-08-01

    This study explores the seasonally lagged impact of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) in the Atlantic main development region (MDR) on the subsequent Atlantic hurricane season. It is found that wintertime SST anomalies in the MDR can persist into the summer, explaining 42% of the variance in the subsequent hurricane season's SST during 1951-2010. An anomalously warm wintertime in the MDR is usually followed by an anomalously active hurricane season. Analysis shows an important constraint on the seasonal evolution of the MDR SST by the water vapor feedback process, in addition to the well-known wind-evaporation-SST and cloud-SST feedback mechanisms over the tropical North Atlantic. The water vapor feedback influences the seasonal evolution of MDR SST by modulating seasonal variations of downward longwave radiation. This wintertime thermal control of hurricane activity has significant implications for seasonal predictions and long-term projections of hurricane activity over the North Atlantic.

  17. Diagnosing United States hurricane landfall risk: An alternative to count-based methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staehling, Erica M.; Truchelut, Ryan E.

    2016-08-01

    Assessing hurricane landfall risk is of immense public utility, yet extant methods of diagnosing annual tropical cyclone (TC) activity demonstrate no skill in diagnosing U.S. hurricane landfalls. Atlantic TC count itself has limited skill, explaining less than 20% of interannual variance in landfall incidence. Using extended landfall activity and reanalysis data sets, we employed empirical Poisson modeling to produce a landfall diagnostic index (LDI), incorporating spatially and temporally averaged upper level divergence, relative sea surface temperature, meridional wind, and zonal shear vorticity. LDI captures 31% of interannual variability of U.S. hurricane landfalls and offers physical insight into why indices that successfully capture TC activity fail to diagnose landfalls: there is inherent tension between conditions likely to steer hurricanes toward the U.S. and conditions favorable for TC development. Given this tension, attempting to diagnose, predict, or understand TC count is inadequate for quantifying societal impacts due to landfalling hurricanes.

  18. Quantitative Vapor-phase IR Intensities and DFT Computations to Predict Absolute IR Spectra based on Molecular Structure: I. Alkanes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Stephen D.; Johnson, Timothy J.; Sharpe, Steven W.; Yavelak, Veronica; Oats, R. P.; Brauer, Carolyn S.

    2013-11-13

    Recently recorded quantitative IR spectra of a variety of gas-phase alkanes are shown to have integrated intensities in both the C-H stretching and C-H bending regions that depend linearly on the molecular size, i.e. the number of C-H bonds. This result is well predicted from CH4 to C15H32 by DFT computations of IR spectra at the B3LYP/6-31+G(d,p) level of DFT theory. A simple model predicting the absolute IR band intensities of alkanes based only on structural formula is proposed: For the C-H stretching band near 2930 cm-1 this is given by (in km/mol): CH¬_str = (34±3)*CH – (41±60) where CH is number of C-H bonds in the alkane. The linearity is explained in terms of coordinated motion of methylene groups rather than the summed intensities of autonomous -CH2- units. The effect of alkyl chain length on the intensity of a C-H bending mode is explored and interpreted in terms of conformer distribution. The relative intensity contribution of a methyl mode compared to the total C-H stretch intensity is shown to be linear in the number of terminal methyl groups in the alkane, and can be used to predict quantitative spectra a priori based on structure alone.

  19. Quantitative vapor-phase IR intensities and DFT computations to predict absolute IR spectra based on molecular structure: I. Alkanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Stephen D.; Johnson, Timothy J.; Sharpe, Steven W.; Yavelak, Veronica; Oates, R. P.; Brauer, Carolyn S.

    2013-11-01

    Recently recorded quantitative IR spectra of a variety of gas-phase alkanes are shown to have integrated intensities in both the C3H stretching and C3H bending regions that depend linearly on the molecular size, i.e. the number of C3H bonds. This result is well predicted from CH4 to C15H32 by density functional theory (DFT) computations of IR spectra using Becke's three parameter functional (B3LYP/6-31+G(d,p)). Using the experimental data, a simple model predicting the absolute IR band intensities of alkanes based only on structural formula is proposed: For the C3H stretching band envelope centered near 2930 cm-1 this is given by (km/mol) CH_str=(34±1)×CH-(41±23) where CH is number of C3H bonds in the alkane. The linearity is explained in terms of coordinated motion of methylene groups rather than the summed intensities of autonomous -CH2-units. The effect of alkyl chain length on the intensity of a C3H bending mode is explored and interpreted in terms of conformer distribution. The relative intensity contribution of a methyl mode compared to the total C3H stretch intensity is shown to be linear in the number of methyl groups in the alkane, and can be used to predict quantitative spectra a priori based on structure alone.

  20. Assessing a 1500-year record of Atlantic hurricane activity from South Andros Island, the Bahamas, using modeled hurricane climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, E. J.; Donnelly, J. P.; Emanuel, K.; Wiman, C.; van Hengstum, P. J.; Sullivan, R.; Winkler, T. S.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical cyclones can cause substantial loss of life and economic resources in coastal areas. In the current changing climate, it is of critical importance for society to understand any links between hurricane activity and climactic conditions. Unfortunately, historical tropical cyclone records are too short and incomplete to constrain how climate controls cyclone activity or to accurately quantify the risk of such storms to local human populations. Hurricane-induced deposits preserved in sediment cores can offer records of past hurricane activity stretching over thousands of years. Here we present a 1500 year annually resolved record of the frequency of intense hurricane events in a blue hole (AM4) on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This carbonate island in the western North Atlantic Ocean is positioned along the trackway of many storms originating in the Caribbean and Atlantic basins. The record is corroborated by cores collected from three other blue holes near AM4. Over the past 1500 years, there have been periods of elevated hurricane activity from 750 to 950 CE, 1150 to 1300 CE and 1550 to 1850 CE. The statistical significance of this sedimentary record is assessed utilizing a set of synthetic storms generated from a previously published statistical deterministic hurricane model. The model simulates climatological conditions from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, and the CMIP5 MPI model for the 20th century calibration (1850-2005 CE), and the millennial simulation (850-1849 CE). The average reoccurrence rates of hurricanes passing within 100 km of AM4 under each simulation are 1.06, 0.62, and 0.61 storms per year respectively. Using each climatology, thousands of hurricane induced deposits for the site are generated based on a random draw of these storms, a wind speed threshold for deposit, and a temporal resolution given the sedimentation rate of approximately 1 cm/yr at the site. Overall, the results of this study offer information on changes

  1. Personalized metabolomics for predicting glucose tolerance changes in sedentary women after high-intensity interval training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuehnbaum, Naomi L; Gillen, Jenna B; Gibala, Martin J; Britz-McKibbin, Philip

    2014-08-28

    High-intensity interval training (HIIT) offers a practical approach for enhancing cardiorespiratory fitness, however its role in improving glucose regulation among sedentary yet normoglycemic women remains unclear. Herein, multi-segment injection capillary electrophoresis-mass spectrometry is used as a high-throughput platform in metabolomics to assess dynamic responses of overweight/obese women (BMI > 25, n = 11) to standardized oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) performed before and after a 6-week HIIT intervention. Various statistical methods were used to classify plasma metabolic signatures associated with post-prandial glucose and/or training status when using a repeated measures/cross-over study design. Branched-chain/aromatic amino acids and other intermediates of urea cycle and carnitine metabolism decreased over time in plasma after oral glucose loading. Adaptive exercise-induced changes to plasma thiol redox and orthinine status were measured for trained subjects while at rest in a fasting state. A multi-linear regression model was developed to predict changes in glucose tolerance based on a panel of plasma metabolites measured for naïve subjects in their untrained state. Since treatment outcomes to physical activity are variable between-subjects, prognostic markers offer a novel approach to screen for potential negative responders while designing lifestyle modifications that maximize the salutary benefits of exercise for diabetes prevention on an individual level.

  2. Hamster Weight Patterns Predict the Intensity and Course of Schistosoma haematobium Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Thien-Linh P; Boyett, Deborah M; Hurley-Novatny, Amelia; Hsieh, Michael H

    2015-10-01

    Although Syrian golden hamsters are widely used as hosts for experimental infection by Schistosoma haematobium , surprisingly little is known about the course of infection and associated intensity (as defined by measures of parasite burden). As such, we sought to define inexpensive, simple, noninvasive, and accurate methods for assessing and predicting the severity of disease in S. haematobium -infected hamsters in order to prevent premature hamster sacrifice and unexpected morbidity and mortality. Through monitoring the weight and behavior of infected hamsters, we determined that the weight-loss patterns of infected hamsters are highly correlated with commonly used measures of the severity of infection (i.e., numbers of eggs passed in the stool, worm burdens, and total egg yields). In contrast, we found no significant correlation between hamster weight-loss patterns and egg yields from liver and intestinal tissues. Our findings suggest that a more complex relationship exists among worm burden, fecundity, and egg passage in the feces than previously appreciated. Regardless, our data may be useful for workers seeking to optimize harvests of S. haematobium eggs and worms from infected hamsters for downstream applications.

  3. Longitudinal Impact of Hurricane Sandy Exposure on Mental Health Symptoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca M. Schwartz

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy hit the eastern coast of the United States in October 2012, causing billions of dollars in damage and acute physical and mental health problems. The long-term mental health consequences of the storm and their predictors have not been studied. New York City and Long Island residents completed questionnaires regarding their initial Hurricane Sandy exposure and mental health symptoms at baseline and 1 year later (N = 130. There were statistically significant decreases in anxiety scores (mean difference = −0.33, p < 0.01 and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD scores (mean difference = −1.98, p = 0.001 between baseline and follow-up. Experiencing a combination of personal and property damage was positively associated with long-term PTSD symptoms (ORadj 1.2, 95% CI [1.1–1.4] but not with anxiety or depression. Having anxiety, depression, or PTSD at baseline was a significant predictor of persistent anxiety (ORadj 2.8 95% CI [1.1–6.8], depression (ORadj 7.4 95% CI [2.3–24.1 and PTSD (ORadj 4.1 95% CI [1.1–14.6] at follow-up. Exposure to Hurricane Sandy has an impact on PTSD symptoms that persists over time. Given the likelihood of more frequent and intense hurricanes due to climate change, future hurricane recovery efforts must consider the long-term effects of hurricane exposure on mental health, especially on PTSD, when providing appropriate assistance and treatment.

  4. Simulation of hurricane response to suppression of warm rain by sub-micron aerosols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Rosenfeld

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The feasibility of hurricane modification was investigated for hurricane Katrina using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF. The possible impact of seeding of clouds with submicron cloud condensation nuclei (CCN on hurricane structure and intensity as measured by nearly halving of the area covered by hurricane force winds was simulated by "turning–off" warm rain formation in the clouds at Katrina's periphery (where wind speeds were less than 22 m s−1. This simplification of the simulation of aerosol effects is aimed at evaluating the largest possible response. This resulted in the weakening of the hurricane surface winds compared to the "non-seeded" simulated storm during the first 24 h within the entire tropical cyclone (TC area compared to a control simulation without warm rain suppression. Later, the seeding-induced evaporative cooling at the TC periphery led to a shrinking of the eye and hence to some increase in the wind within the small central area of the TC. Yet, the overall strength of the hurricane, as defined by the area covered by hurricane force winds, decreased in response to the suppressed warm rain at the periphery, as measured by a 25% reduction in the radius of hurricane force winds. In a simulation with warm rain suppression throughout the hurricane, the radius of the hurricane force winds was reduced by more than 42%, and although the diameter of the eye shrunk even further the maximum winds weakened. This shows that the main mechanism by which suppressing warm rain weakens the TC is the low level evaporative cooling of the un-precipitated cloud drops and the added cooling due to melting of precipitation that falls from above.

  5. Hurricane Data Analysis Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana; Leptoukh, Gregory

    2011-01-01

    In order to facilitate Earth science data access, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC) has developed a web prototype, the Hurricane Data Analysis Tool (HDAT; URL: http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/HDAT), to allow users to conduct online visualization and analysis of several remote sensing and model datasets for educational activities and studies of tropical cyclones and other weather phenomena. With a web browser and few mouse clicks, users can have a full access to terabytes of data and generate 2-D or time-series plots and animation without downloading any software and data. HDAT includes data from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA Quick Scatterometer(QuikSCAT) and NECP Reanalysis, and the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N - 60 S) IR Dataset. The GES DISC archives TRMM data. The daily global rainfall product derived from the 3-hourly multi-satellite precipitation product (3B42 V6) is available in HDAT. The TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) sea surface temperature from the Remote Sensing Systems is in HDAT as well. The NASA QuikSCAT ocean surface wind and the NCEP Reanalysis provide ocean surface and atmospheric conditions, respectively. The global merged IR product, also known as, the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N -60 S) IR Dataset, is one of TRMM ancillary datasets. They are globally-merged pixel-resolution IR brightness temperature data (equivalent blackbody temperatures), merged from all available geostationary satellites (GOES-8/10, METEOSAT-7/5 & GMS). The GES DISC has collected over 10 years of the data beginning from February of 2000. This high temporal resolution (every 30 minutes) dataset not only provides additional background information to TRMM and other satellite missions, but also allows observing a wide range of meteorological phenomena from space, such as, hurricanes, typhoons, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convection system, etc. Basic functions include selection of area of

  6. Impacts of land cover changes on hurricane storm surge in the lower Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denton, M.; Lawler, S.; Ferreira, C.

    2013-12-01

    The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States with more than 150 rivers draining into the bay's tidal wetlands. Coastal wetlands and vegetation play an important role in shaping the hydrodynamics of storm surge events by retaining water and slowing the propagation of storm surge. In this way coastal wetlands act as a natural barrier to inland flooding, particularly against less intense storms. Threats to wetlands come from both land development (residential or commercial/industrial) and sea level rise. The lower region of the Chesapeake Bay near its outlet is especially vulnerable to flooding from Atlantic storm surge brought in by hurricanes, tropical storms and nor'easters (e.g., hurricanes Isabel [2003] and Sandy [2012]). This region is also intensely developed with nearly 1.7 million residents within the greater Hampton Roads metropolitan area. Anthropogenic changes to land cover in the lower bay can directly impact basin drainage and storm surge propagation with impacts reaching beyond the immediate coastal zone to affect flooding in inland areas. While construction of seawall barriers around population centers may provide storm surge protection to a specifically defined area, these barriers deflect storm surge rather than attenuate it, underscoring the importance of wetlands. To analyze these impacts a framework was developed combining numerical simulations with a detailed hydrodynamic characterization of flow through coastal wetland areas. Storm surges were calculated using a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) coupled to a wave model (SWAN) forced by an asymmetric hurricane vortex model using the FEMA region 3 unstructured mesh (2.3 million nodes) under a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. Multiple model simulations were performed using historical hurricanes data and hypothetical storms to compare the predicted storm surge inundation with various levels of wetland reduction and/or beach hardening. These data were combined and overlaid

  7. Hurricane Wilma Poster (October 24, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Wilma poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-18 shows Hurricane Wilma exiting Florida off the east Florida coast on October 24, 2005. Poster size is 34"x30".

  8. Hurricane Hugo Poster (September 21, 1989)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Hugo poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-11 captures Hurricane Hugo slamming into South Carolina coast on September 21, 1989. Poster size is 36"x36".

  9. Hurricane Sandy Poster (October 29, 2012)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Sandy poster. Multi-spectral image from Suomi-NPP shows Hurricane Sandy approaching the New Jersey Coast on October 29, 2012. Poster size is approximately...

  10. Hurricane Jeanne Poster (September 25, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Jeanne poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Jeanne near Grand Bahama Island on September 25, 2004. Poster size is 34"x30".

  11. Hurricane Charley Poster (August 13, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Charley poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows a small but powerful hurricane heading toward southern Florida on August 13, 2004. Poster dimension...

  12. Hurricane Isabel Poster (September 18, 2003)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Isabel poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Isabel making landfall on the North Carolina Outer Banks on September 18, 2003. Poster...

  13. Hurricane Frances Poster (September 5, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Frances poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Frances over central Florida on September 5, 2004. Poster dimension is approximately...

  14. Hurricane Ivan Poster (September 15, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Ivan poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Ivan in the Gulf of Mexico on September 15, 2004. Poster size is 34"x30".

  15. Predicted avian responses to bioenergy development scenarios in an intensive agricultural landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; McCoy, Tim D.; Guan, Qingfeng

    2015-01-01

    Conversion of native prairie to agriculture has increased food and bioenergy production but decreased wildlife habitat. However, enrollment of highly erodible cropland in conservation programs has compensated for some grassland loss. In the future, climate change and production of second-generation perennial biofuel crops could further transform agricultural landscapes and increase or decrease grassland area. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is an alternative biofuel feedstock that may be economically and environmentally superior to maize (Zea mays) grain for ethanol production on marginally productive lands. Switchgrass could benefit farmers economically and increase grassland area, but there is uncertainty as to how conversions between rowcrops, switchgrass monocultures and conservation grasslands might occur and affect wildlife. To explore potential impacts on grassland birds, we developed four agricultural land-use change scenarios for an intensively cultivated landscape, each driven by potential future climatic changes and ensuing irrigation limitations, ethanol demand, commodity prices, and continuation of a conservation program. For each scenario, we calculated changes in area for landcover classes and predicted changes in grassland bird abundances. Overall, birds responded positively to the replacement of rowcrops with switchgrass and negatively to the conversion of conservation grasslands to switchgrass or rowcrops. Landscape context and interactions between climate, crop water use, and irrigation availability could influence future land-use, and subsequently, avian habitat quality and quantity. Switchgrass is likely to provide higher quality avian habitat than rowcrops but lower quality habitat than conservation grasslands, and therefore, may most benefit birds in heavily cultivated, irrigation dependent landscapes under warmer and drier conditions, where economic profitability may also encourage conversions to drought tolerant bioenergy feedstocks.

  16. Cardiac Risk Assessment, Morbidity Prediction, and Outcome in the Vascular Intensive Care Unit.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Dover, Mary

    2013-09-17

    Objectives: The aim of this study is to examine the predictive value of the Lee revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) for a standard vascular intensive care unit (ICU) population as well as assessing the utility of transthoracic echocardiography and the impact of prior coronary artery disease (CAD) and coronary revascularization on patient outcome. Design: This is a retrospective review of prospectively maintained Vascubase and prospectively collected ICU data. Materials and Methods: Data from 363 consecutive vascular ICU admissions were collected. Findings were used to calculate the RCRI, which was then correlated with patient outcomes. All patients were on optimal medical therapy (OMT) in the form of cardioselective β-blocker, aspirin, statin, and folic acid. Results: There was no relationship found between a reduced ejection fraction and patient outcome. Mortality was significantly increased for patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) as identified on echo (14.9% vs 6.5%, P = .028). The overall complication rates were significantly elevated for patients with valvular dysfunction. Discrimination for the RCRI on receiver-operating characteristic analysis was poor, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of .621. Model calibration was reasonable with an Hosmer-Lemeshow Ĉ statistic of 2.726 (P = .256). Of those with known CAD, 41.22% of the patients receiving best medical treatment developed acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared to 35.3% of those who previously underwent percutaneous cardiac intervention and 23.5% of those who had undergone coronary artery bypass grafting. There was 3-fold increase in major adverse clinical events in patients with troponin rise and LVH. Conclusions: The RCRI\\'s discriminatory capacity is low, and this raises difficulties in assessing cardiac risk in patients undergoing vascular intervention. The AMI is highest in the OMT group without prior cardiac intervention, which mandates protocols to

  17. Can we predict intensive care relatives at risk for posttraumatic stress disorder?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pillai Lalitha

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: To identify the relatives of the intensive care unit (ICU patients at risk for developing symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorders. Setting: A multidisciplinary hospital ICU. Design: Prospective single center observational study. Material and Methods: Relatives of patients admitted in the ICU (May06-Nov06 who consented to answer the questionnaire participated in the study. Anxiety was assessed by using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HAD and vulnerability to posttraumatic disorder (PTSD by using the Impact of Event Scale Revised (IES-R which was administered on the fifth day of admission and at two months following discharge or death. Results: During admission, 48% of the relatives had a HAD score >11 and 72% showed IES-R score >26. There was no association of HAD with gender, patient outcome, working status, age of the patient, or mode of payment of the bills. There was significant association of IES-R >26 with trauma admission, HAD score >11 and mode of payment with the relatives of insured being more stressed as compared to those who settled their bills personally. A total of 35% relatives showed symptoms of posttraumatic stress reaction consistent with a high risk of PTSD after two months. Death in the hospital resulted in elevated HAD and IES-R score during admission and at the two month follow-up. Persistence of stress symptoms was more in school drop outs, working relatives, parents and those with initial anxiety score >11. Conclusions: HAD score greater than 11 was the only factor at admission which could statistically predict a higher PTSD score on follow-up. Adequate counseling of this group of relatives may prevent lasting psychological sequelae of an ICU admission in the relatives of critically ill.

  18. Hurricane Katrina experience and the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder and depression among pregnant women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xu; Harville, Emily W; Mattison, Donald R; Elkind-Hirsch, Karen; Pridjian, Gabriella; Buekens, Pierre

    2010-01-01

    Little is known about the effects of disaster exposure and intensity on the development of mental disorders among pregnant women. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of exposure to Hurricane Katrina on mental health in pregnant women. Prospective cohort epidemiological study. Tertiary hospitals in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, U.S.A. Women who were pregnant during Hurricane Katrina or became pregnant immediately after the hurricane. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. The frequency of PTSD was higher in women with high hurricane exposure (13.8 percent) than women without high hurricane exposure (1.3 percent), with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 16.8 (95% confidence interval: 2.6-106.6) after adjustment for maternal race, age, education, smoking and alcohol use, family income, parity, and other confounders. The frequency of depression was higher in women with high hurricane exposure (32.3 percent) than women without high hurricane exposure (12.3 percent), with an aOR of 3.3 (1.6-7.1). Moreover, the risk of PTSD and depression increased with an increasing number of severe experiences of the hurricane. Pregnant women who had severe hurricane experiences were at a significantly increased risk for PTSD and depression. This information should be useful for screening pregnant women who are at higher risk of developing mental disorders after a disaster.

  19. Personalized metabolomics for predicting glucose tolerance changes in sedentary women after high-intensity interval training

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kuehnbaum, Naomi L; Gillen, Jenna B; Gibala, Martin J; Britz-McKibbin, Philip

    2014-01-01

    High-intensity interval training (HIIT) offers a practical approach for enhancing cardiorespiratory fitness, however its role in improving glucose regulation among sedentary yet normoglycemic women remains unclear...

  20. Happily Ever After? Pre-and-Post Disaster Determinants of Happiness Among Survivors of Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, Rocío; Arcaya, Mariana; Baum, Christopher F.; Lowe, Sarah R.; Waters, Mary C.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated pre- to post-disaster changes in happiness of 491 women affected by Hurricane Katrina, and identified factors that were associated with the survivors’ happiness after the storm. Participants completed surveys approximately 1 year before and 1 and 4 years after the storm. The surveys collected information on the women’s happiness, social support, household characteristics, and hurricane exposure. We found that happiness significantly decreased from pre-disaster to 1 year post-disaster but there were no significant differences in happiness between the pre-disaster and 4 years post-disaster assessments. An exception were 38 women who continued to have lower levels of happiness 4 years post-disaster than at pre-disaster. These women were more likely to be living on their own after the storm and reported consistently lower levels of perceived social support from the community both before and after the storm than the other women of the sample. Factors associated with the survivor’s happiness after the storm included exposure to hurricane stressors and losing a loved one to the hurricane. These were predictive of lower happiness 1 year post-disaster. Four years after the hurricane only exposure to hurricane stressors was predictive of lower levels of happiness. In contrast, pre-disaster happiness and post-disaster social support were protective against the negative effect of the hurricane on survivors’ happiness. PMID:26078701

  1. Analysis of the variation of Hurricane frequency over Atlantic region during 1851-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Dhruba; Bondyopadhaya, Ramaprosad

    Analysis of the variation of Hurricane frequency over Atlantic region during 1851-2010 The variation of number of Hurricane over Atlantic and East Caribbean region during more than 150 years (1851-2010) have been analyzed. The general observations regarding characteristics are (ref{GrindEQ__1_}) the frequency increases monotonically, (ref{GrindEQ__2_}) the monthly variation of the frequencies also exists and the frequency of Hurricanes are much more during August to October, September being the month of maximum hurricane nearly 3.2 per year. Reverse is the situation during December to June. If we note the 30 years variation of Hurricane frequency we find 1941-1970 and 1971-2000 are two spans of years when total Hurricane number over Atlantic region was maximum. When we analyze these rates of increase we find this rate is monotonically increasing from 1851upto1910 but after that it begins to drop slowly. The maximum rate was 1.22 per yr.(roughly).In recent decade during 1971-2010, actually decadal analysis shows that it was less than 10 before1991 but more than 10 after that time and during 2001-10 it was 13.3. Another very important observation is that while the average frequency of hurricane over the period 1851-2010 is 8.8, the average frequency during solar maxima years is 8.3but the said frequency during solar minima is 9.53.This is very significant. Because this implies that solar influence must have negative effect on Hurricane formation. We may note that similar situation prevail for the formation of tropical cyclone like 1957. In fact, in many solar maximum years Hurricane does not form over Atlantic and East Caribbean region. On the contrary many deadliest hurricanes over USA occurred in solar minima years or in the neighborhood. Finally it is outlined the possible mechanism due to which solar activities may decrease the formation of hurricane. It may be worth noting that the nature variation of solar phase/cycle is more predictable than the hurricane

  2. 7 CFR 701.50 - 2005 hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false 2005 hurricanes. 701.50 Section 701.50 Agriculture... ADMINISTERED UNDER THIS PART § 701.50 2005 hurricanes. In addition benefits elsewhere allowed by this part, claims related to calendar year 2005 hurricane losses may be allowed to the extent provided for in §§ 701...

  3. Hurricane Katrina impacts on Mississippi forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonja N. Oswalt; Christopher Oswalt; Jeffery Turner

    2008-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina triggered public interest and concern for forests in Mississippi that required rapid responses from the scientific community. A uniform systematic sample of 3,590 ground plots were established and measured in 687 days immediately after the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast. The hurricane damaged an estimated 521 million trees with more...

  4. Hurricane Hazel: Canada's storm of the century

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gifford, Jim

    2004-01-01

    ... For EleanorHurricane_Hazel_Interior.qxd 6/22/04 3:35 PM Page 3 HURRICANE HAZEL Canada's Storm of the Century Jim Gifford The dundurn Group Toronto * OxfordHurricane_Hazel_Interior.qxd 6/22/04 3:35...

  5. Lumbar facet joint synovial cysts: does T2 signal intensity predict outcomes after percutaneous rupture?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cambron, S C; McIntyre, J J; Guerin, S J; Li, Z; Pastel, D A

    2013-08-01

    Lumbar facet synovial cysts are a cause of back pain and radiculopathy with facet joint degeneration, the most common cause for cyst formation. Typically, LFSCs are T2 hyperintense on MR imaging, but the signal intensity is variable. Treatment options include percutaneous rupture and surgical resection. This study evaluates the relationship between LFSC signal intensity on MR imaging and outcomes as it relates to percutaneous rupture success and need for subsequent surgery. A retrospective review of 110 patients who underwent CT fluoroscopic-guided rupture of symptomatic LFSCs was performed. The LFSCs were characterized by their T2 signal intensity on MR imaging and divided into 3 groups: high, intermediate, and low T2 signal intensity. The rates of successful cyst rupture and need for subsequent surgery were recorded. Percutaneous LFSC rupture was technically successful in 87% of all cases. Cyst rupture was successful in 89% and 90% of high and intermediate signal intensity cysts, respectively, and in 65% of low signal intensity cysts (P = .017, .030). High signal intensity cysts had lower postprocedural surgical rates (29%) when compared with intermediate and low signal cyst as a group (P = .045). T2 hyperintense and intermediate signal intensity LFSCs are easier to rupture, perhaps because the cysts contain a higher proportion of fluid and are less gelatinous or calcified than T2 hypointense cysts. Patients with T2 hyperintense LFSCs are less likely to need surgery.

  6. explICU: A web-based visualization and predictive modeling toolkit for mortality in intensive care patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Robert; Kumar, Vikas; Fitch, Natalie; Jagadish, Jitesh; Lifan Zhang; Dunn, William; Duen Horng Chau

    2015-01-01

    Preventing mortality in intensive care units (ICUs) has been a top priority in American hospitals. Predictive modeling has been shown to be effective in prediction of mortality based upon data from patients' past medical histories from electronic health records (EHRs). Furthermore, visualization of timeline events is imperative in the ICU setting in order to quickly identify trends in patient histories that may lead to mortality. With the increasing adoption of EHRs, a wealth of medical data is becoming increasingly available for secondary uses such as data exploration and predictive modeling. While data exploration and predictive modeling are useful for finding risk factors in ICU patients, the process is time consuming and requires a high level of computer programming ability. We propose explICU, a web service that hosts EHR data, displays timelines of patient events based upon user-specified preferences, performs predictive modeling in the back end, and displays results to the user via intuitive, interactive visualizations.

  7. Hurricane Katrina-induced forest damage in relation to ecological factors at landscape scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fugui; Xu, Y Jun

    2009-09-01

    Forest stand stability to strong winds such as hurricanes has been found to be associated with a number of forest, soil and topography factors. In this study, through applying geographic information system (GIS) and logit regression, we assessed effects of forest characteristics and site conditions on pattern, severity and probability of Hurricane Katrina disturbance to forests in the Lower Pearl River Valley, USA. The factors included forest type, forest coverage, stand density, soil great group, elevation, slope, aspect, and stream buffer zone. Results showed that Hurricane Katrina damaged 60% of the total forested land in the region. The distribution and intensity of the hurricane disturbance varied across the landscape, with the bottomland hardwood forests on river floodplains most severely affected. All these factors had a variety of effects on vulnerability of the forests to the hurricane disturbance and thereby spatial patterns of the disturbance. Soil groups and stand factors including forest types, forest coverage and stand density contributed to 85% of accuracy in modeling the probability of the hurricane disturbance to forests in this region. Besides assessment of Katrina's damage, this study elucidates the great usefulness of remote sensing and GIS techniques combined with statistics modeling in assessment of large-scale risks of hurricane damage to coastal forests.

  8. Generic Hurricane Extreme Seas State

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wehmeyer, Christof; Skourup, Jesper; Frigaard, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Extreme sea states, which the IEC 61400-3 (2008) standard requires for the ultimate limit state (ULS) analysis of offshore wind turbines are derived to establish the design basis for the conceptual layout of deep water floating offshore wind turbine foundations in hurricane affected areas...... data is required for a type specific conceptual design. ULS conditions for different return periods are developed, which can subsequently be applied in siteindependent analysis and conceptual design. Recordings provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), of hurricanes along...... for hurricane generates seas by Young (1998, 2003, and 2006), requiring maximum wind speeds, forward velocity and radius to maximum wind speed. An averaged radius to maximum sustained wind speeds, according to Hsu et al. (1998) and averaged forward speed of cyclonic storms are applied in the initial state...

  9. Climatology of landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jauregui, E. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM), Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2003-10-01

    The potential for damage from hurricanes landfalling in Mexico is assessed. During the 1951-2000 period, Pacific hurricane hits were more frequent on coastal areas of the northwest of country (e.g., Sinaloa and the southern half of Baja California Peninsula) as well as in southern Mexico (Michoacan). On the Atlantic side, the Yucatan Peninsula and the northern state of Tamaulipas were most exposed to these storms. The hurricane season reaches maximum activity in September for both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the country. During the 50 year period, five intense hurricanes (category 5) made landfall on the Gulf/Caribbean coasts, while only one such intense hurricane made a land hit on the Pacific side. While hurricanes affecting Pacific coasts show a marked increase during the last decade, those of the Atlantic side exhibit a marked decrease since the 1970s. However, when considering the frequency of landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes impacting on both littorals of the country, their numbers have considerably increased during the 1990s. [Spanish] Se determino el potencial de dano de los huracanes que entran a tierra en Mexico. Durante el periodo 1951-2000 los impactos de los huracanes del Pacifico fueron mas frecuentes en las areas costeras del noroeste del pais, como Sinaloa y la mitad sur de la peninsula de Baja California, asi como en el sur de Mexico (Michoacan). En el lado del Atlantico la peninsula de Yucatan y el estado norteno de Tamaulipas fueron los mas expuestos a estas tormentas. Para las dos costas del pais, del Pacifico y del Atlantico, la temporada de huracanes alcanza su maxima actividad en septiembre. Durante los 50 anos del periodo de estudio cinco huracanes intensos (categoria 5) tocaron tierra en el lado del Atlantico y uno en el Pacifico. Mientras que los huracanes que afectan las costas del Pacifico muestran un incremento en numero durante la ultima decada, los del Atlantico exhiben una disminucion notable desde la decada de los

  10. Predicting the macroseismic intensity from early radiated P wave energy for on-site earthquake early warning in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brondi, P.; Picozzi, M.; Emolo, A.; Zollo, A.; Mucciarelli, M.

    2015-10-01

    Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are potentially effective tools for risk mitigation in active seismic regions. The present study explores the possibility of predicting the macroseismic intensity within EEW timeframes using the squared velocity integral (IV2) measured on the early P wave signals, a proxy for the P wave radiated energy of earthquakes. This study shows that IV2 correlates better than the peak displacement measured on P waves with both the peak ground velocity and the Housner Intensity, with the latter being recognized by engineers as a reliable proxy for damage assessment. Therefore, using the strong motion recordings of the Italian Accelerometric Archive, a novel relationship between the parameter IV2 and the macroseismic intensity (IM) has been derived. The validity of this relationship has been assessed using the strong motion recordings of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Strong Motion Data and Osservatorio Sismico delle Strutture databases, as well as, in the case of the MW 6, 29 May 2012 Emilia earthquake (Italy), comparing the predicted intensities with the ones observed after a macroseismic survey. Our results indicate that P wave IV2 can become a key parameter for the design of on-site EEWS, capable of proving real-time predictions of the IM at target sites.

  11. The dynamics of hurricane balls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, W. L.; Werner, Steven

    2015-09-01

    We examine the theory of the hurricane balls toy. This toy consists of two steel balls, welded together that are sent spinning on a horizontal surface somewhat like a top. Unlike a top, at high frequency the symmetry axis approaches a limiting inclination that is not perpendicular to the surface. We calculate (and experimentally verify) the limiting inclinations for three toy geometries. We find that at high frequencies, hurricane balls provide an easily realized and testable example of the Poinsot theory of freely rotating symmetrical bodies.

  12. Hurricane Season: Are You Ready?

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-09-24

    Hurricanes are one of Mother Nature’s most powerful forces. Host Bret Atkins talks with CDC’s National Center for Environmental Health Director Dr. Chris Portier about the main threats of a hurricane and how you can prepare.  Created: 9/24/2012 by Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (OPHPR), National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH), and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR).   Date Released: 9/24/2012.

  13. Hurricane Risk Variability along the Gulf of Mexico Coastline

    OpenAIRE

    Jill C Trepanier; Ellis, Kelsey N.; Clay S Tucker

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locatio...

  14. How Unique was Hurricane Sandy? Sedimentary Reconstructions of Extreme Flooding from New York Harbor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon, Christine M.; Woodruff, Jonathan D.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Sullivan, Richard M.

    2014-12-01

    The magnitude of flooding in New York City by Hurricane Sandy is commonly believed to be extremely rare, with estimated return periods near or greater than 1000 years. However, the brevity of tide gauge records result in significant uncertainties when estimating the uniqueness of such an event. Here we compare resultant deposition by Hurricane Sandy to earlier storm-induced flood layers in order to extend records of flooding to the city beyond the instrumental dataset. Inversely modeled storm conditions from grain size trends show that a more compact yet more intense hurricane in 1821 CE probably resulted in a similar storm tide and a significantly larger storm surge. Our results indicate the occurrence of additional flood events like Hurricane Sandy in recent centuries, and highlight the inadequacies of the instrumental record in estimating current flood risk by such extreme events.

  15. Determination of intensity functions for predicting subsidence from coal mining, potash mining, and groundwater withdrawal using the influence function technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Triplett, T.; Yurchak, D. [Twin Cities Research Center, Bureau of Mines, US Dept. of the Interior, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents research, conducted by the Bureau of Mines, on modifying the influence function method to predict subsidence. According to theory, this technique must incorporate an intensity function to represent the relative significance of the causes of subsidence. This paper shows that the inclusion of a reasonable intensity function increases the accuracy of the technique, then presents the required functions for case studies of longwall coal mining subsidence in Illinois, USA, potash mining subsidence in new Mexico, USA, and subsidence produced by ground water withdrawal in California, USA. Finally, the paper discusses a method to predict the resultant strain from a simply measured site constant and ground curvatures calculated by the technique. (orig.)

  16. Observations and analyses of upper ocean responses to tropical storms and hurricanes in the vicinity of Bermuda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, W. J.; Dickey, T. D.

    2008-08-01

    A circular region within a radius of 400 km of Bermuda has been struck by 188 tropical storms or hurricanes from 1851 through 2005 and by 20 since 1995. Here we describe new direct and remote sensing observations and analyses of recent events near the Bermuda Testbed Mooring including Hurricane Fabian (2003), Tropical Storm Harvey (2005) and Hurricane Nate (2005). The most impressive upper ocean response of the recent events was produced by Hurricane Fabian when SST cooling exceeded 3.5°C, vertical mixing occurred to a depth of greater than 130 m, and upper ocean currents reached 100 cm s-1. Fabian also triggered an ocean color event visible in SeaWiFS satellite images. Related implications include improved estimates of the roles of tropical cyclones in driving meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and testing of hypotheses concerning warming of the tropical oceans which could cause more intense tropical storms and hurricanes.

  17. Establishment of a scoring system for predicting the difficulty level of high-intensity focussed ultrasound ablation of uterine fibroids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhongqiong; Gong, Chunmei; Liu, Yunchang; Zhang, Lian

    2017-05-19

    To establish a scoring system that predicts the difficulty level of high-intensity focussed ultrasound (HIFU) ablation of uterine fibroids. Four hundred and twenty-two patients with fibroids were enrolled. The energy efficiency factor (EEF) and sonication time were set as dependent variables, with factors possibly affecting EEF and sonication time including age, body mass index (BMI), the volume of fibroids, the location of the uterus, the type of fibroids, the signal intensity on the T2-weighted imaging (T2WI), the enhancement type, the thickness of the rectus abdominis and the subcutaneous fat layer, the distance from the anterior/posterior surface of the fibroid to the skin, and the abdominal wall scars were set as predictors for building optimal scaling regression models. The volume of the fibroids, the location of the uterus, the signal intensity on T2WI, enhancement type, rectus abdominis thickness, subcutaneous fat thickness, and distance from the anterior surface of fibroid to the skin were related to EEF. Signal intensity on T2WI, the volume of fibroids, distance from the posterior surface of fibroid to the skin, and enhancement type were related to sonication time. Models that can predict the difficulty level of HIFU for fibroids have been established: for EEF, y ' = 0.338X '1 - 0.231X '2+0.156X '3+0.167X '4 ; for sonication time, y = 0.227X1+0.321X2+0.157X3+0.194X4. A scoring system for predicting the difficulty level of HIFU treatment for uterine fibroids has been established and it can be used to help select patients and to predict the sonication time for a given fibroid.

  18. Failure to Validate a Multivariable Clinical Prediction Model to Identify Pediatric Intensive Care Unit Patients at High Risk for Candidemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Brian T; Ross, Rachael K; Roilides, Emmanuel; Palazzi, Debra L; Abzug, Mark J; Hoffman, Jill A; Berman, David M; Prasad, Priya A; Localio, A Russell; Steinbach, William J; Vogiatzi, Lambrini; Dutta, Ankhi; Zaoutis, Theoklis E

    2016-12-01

    We attempted to validate a previously derived clinical prediction rule for candidemia in the pediatric intensive care unit. This multicenter case control study did not identify significant association of candidemia with most of the previously identified predictors. Additional study in larger cohorts with other predictor variables is needed. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Predicting the infrared transition intensities in the Ar-HF complex: the key role of the dipole moment surface accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jankowski, Piotr; Ziółkowski, Marcin

    2008-01-21

    The method proposed earlier for the generation of the full-dimensional energy surface for van der Waals complexes [P. Jankowski, J. Chem. Phys. 121, 1655 (2004)] is used to obtain a fulldimensional dipole moment surface for the atom-diatom complex in calculations based on the coupled-cluster with single, double, and noniterative triple excitation approach and the aug-cc-pVQZ basis sets. This surface has been employed to calculate transition intensities of the infrared spectra of Ar-HF. Special attention has been paid to study the problem of relative intensities of the different bands which have not been properly predicted within the long-range models of the dipole moment [A. E. Thornley and J. M. Hutson, J. Chem. Phys. 101, 5578 (1994)]. The intensities calculated with the present dipole moment surface agree very well with the experimental data, which indicate that the short-range interactions significantly affect the dipole moment surface and the calculated intensities. To investigate the role of the accuracy of the dipole moment surface on infrared transition intensities in atom-diatom complexes, four models of increasing complexity are studied. Their performance is shown to strongly depend on the region of the interaction energy surface probed by the initial and final states of the individual transitions.

  20. Factors that predict outcome of intensive care treatment in very elderly patients : a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Rooij, Sophia E; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Levi, Marcel; de Jonge, Evert

    2005-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Advanced age is thought to be associated with increased mortality in critically ill patients. This report reviews available data on factors that determine outcome, on the value of prognostic models, and on preferences regarding life-sustaining treatments in (very) elderly intensive car

  1. Computerized prediction of intensive care unit discharge after cardiac surgery: development and validation of a Gaussian processes model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyfroidt, Geert; Güiza, Fabian; Cottem, Dominiek; De Becker, Wilfried; Van Loon, Kristien; Aerts, Jean-Marie; Berckmans, Daniël; Ramon, Jan; Bruynooghe, Maurice; Van den Berghe, Greet

    2011-10-25

    The intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS) of patients undergoing cardiac surgery may vary considerably, and is often difficult to predict within the first hours after admission. The early clinical evolution of a cardiac surgery patient might be predictive for his LOS. The purpose of the present study was to develop a predictive model for ICU discharge after non-emergency cardiac surgery, by analyzing the first 4 hours of data in the computerized medical record of these patients with Gaussian processes (GP), a machine learning technique. Non-interventional study. Predictive modeling, separate development (n = 461) and validation (n = 499) cohort. GP models were developed to predict the probability of ICU discharge the day after surgery (classification task), and to predict the day of ICU discharge as a discrete variable (regression task). GP predictions were compared with predictions by EuroSCORE, nurses and physicians. The classification task was evaluated using aROC for discrimination, and Brier Score, Brier Score Scaled, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test for calibration. The regression task was evaluated by comparing median actual and predicted discharge, loss penalty function (LPF) ((actual-predicted)/actual) and calculating root mean squared relative errors (RMSRE). Median (P25-P75) ICU length of stay was 3 (2-5) days. For classification, the GP model showed an aROC of 0.758 which was significantly higher than the predictions by nurses, but not better than EuroSCORE and physicians. The GP had the best calibration, with a Brier Score of 0.179 and Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value of 0.382. For regression, GP had the highest proportion of patients with a correctly predicted day of discharge (40%), which was significantly better than the EuroSCORE (p nurses (p = 0.044) but equivalent to physicians. GP had the lowest RMSRE (0.408) of all predictive models. A GP model that uses PDMS data of the first 4 hours after admission in the ICU of scheduled adult cardiac surgery

  2. 77 FR 64564 - Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-22

    ... COMMISSION Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles AGENCY....221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles.'' The purpose of this ISG is to supplement the guidance regarding the application of Regulatory Guide 1.221, ``Design-Basis Hurricane and...

  3. Hurricane Katrina Wind Investigation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desjarlais, A. O.

    2007-08-15

    This investigation of roof damage caused by Hurricane Katrina is a joint effort of the Roofing Industry Committee on Weather Issues, Inc. (RICOWI) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory/U.S. Department of Energy (ORNL/DOE). The Wind Investigation Program (WIP) was initiated in 1996. Hurricane damage that met the criteria of a major windstorm event did not materialize until Hurricanes Charley and Ivan occurred in August 2004. Hurricane Katrina presented a third opportunity for a wind damage investigation in August 29, 2005. The major objectives of the WIP are as follows: (1) to investigate the field performance of roofing assemblies after major wind events; (2) to factually describe roofing assembly performance and modes of failure; and (3) to formally report results of the investigations and damage modes for substantial wind speeds The goal of the WIP is to perform unbiased, detailed investigations by credible personnel from the roofing industry, the insurance industry, and academia. Data from these investigations will, it is hoped, lead to overall improvement in roofing products, systems, roofing application, and durability and a reduction in losses, which may lead to lower overall costs to the public. This report documents the results of an extensive and well-planned investigative effort. The following program changes were implemented as a result of the lessons learned during the Hurricane Charley and Ivan investigations: (1) A logistics team was deployed to damage areas immediately following landfall; (2) Aerial surveillance--imperative to target wind damage areas--was conducted; (3) Investigation teams were in place within 8 days; (4) Teams collected more detailed data; and (5) Teams took improved photographs and completed more detailed photo logs. Participating associations reviewed the results and lessons learned from the previous investigations and many have taken the following actions: (1) Moved forward with recommendations for new installation procedures

  4. Hurricane Katrina Wind Investigation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desjarlais, A. O.

    2007-08-15

    This investigation of roof damage caused by Hurricane Katrina is a joint effort of the Roofing Industry Committee on Weather Issues, Inc. (RICOWI) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory/U.S. Department of Energy (ORNL/DOE). The Wind Investigation Program (WIP) was initiated in 1996. Hurricane damage that met the criteria of a major windstorm event did not materialize until Hurricanes Charley and Ivan occurred in August 2004. Hurricane Katrina presented a third opportunity for a wind damage investigation in August 29, 2005. The major objectives of the WIP are as follows: (1) to investigate the field performance of roofing assemblies after major wind events; (2) to factually describe roofing assembly performance and modes of failure; and (3) to formally report results of the investigations and damage modes for substantial wind speeds The goal of the WIP is to perform unbiased, detailed investigations by credible personnel from the roofing industry, the insurance industry, and academia. Data from these investigations will, it is hoped, lead to overall improvement in roofing products, systems, roofing application, and durability and a reduction in losses, which may lead to lower overall costs to the public. This report documents the results of an extensive and well-planned investigative effort. The following program changes were implemented as a result of the lessons learned during the Hurricane Charley and Ivan investigations: (1) A logistics team was deployed to damage areas immediately following landfall; (2) Aerial surveillance--imperative to target wind damage areas--was conducted; (3) Investigation teams were in place within 8 days; (4) Teams collected more detailed data; and (5) Teams took improved photographs and completed more detailed photo logs. Participating associations reviewed the results and lessons learned from the previous investigations and many have taken the following actions: (1) Moved forward with recommendations for new installation procedures

  5. The development of a quality prediction system for aluminum laser welding to measure plasma intensity using photodiodes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Ji Young [Technical Research Center, Hyundai Steel Company, Dangjin (Korea, Republic of); Sohn, Yong Ho [Dept. of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando (United States); Park, Young Whan; Kwak, Jae Seob [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Pukyong National University, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Lightweight metals have been used to manufacture the body panels of cars to reduce the weight of car bodies. Typically, aluminum sheets are welded together, with a focus on weld quality assurance. A weld quality prediction system for the laser welding of aluminum was developed in this research to maximize welding production. The behavior of the plasma was also analyzed, dependent on various welding conditions. The light intensity of the plasma was altered with heat input and wire feed rate conditions, and the strength of the weld and sensor signals correlated closely for this heat input condition. Using these characteristics, a new algorithm and program were developed to evaluate the weld quality. The design involves a combinatory algorithm using a neural network model for the prediction of tensile strength from measured signals and a fuzzy multi-feature pattern recognition algorithm for the weld quality classification to improve predictability of the system.

  6. Hurricane Matthew Overwash Extents

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project exists to understand and predict storm impacts to our nation's coastlines. This geospatial dataset defines...

  7. Forecasting hurricane impact on coastal topography: Hurricane Ike

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Turco, Michael J.; East, Jeffery W.; Taylor, Arthur A.; Shaffer, Wilson A.

    2010-01-01

    Extreme storms can have a profound impact on coastal topography and thus on ecosystems and human-built structures within coastal regions. For instance, landfalls of several recent major hurricanes have caused significant changes to the U.S. coastline, particularly along the Gulf of Mexico. Some of these hurricanes (e.g., Ivan in 2004, Katrina and Rita in 2005, and Gustav and Ike in 2008) led to shoreline position changes of about 100 meters. Sand dunes, which protect the coast from waves and surge, eroded, losing several meters of elevation in the course of a single storm. Observations during these events raise the question of how storm-related changes affect the future vulnerability of a coast.

  8. The Repopulation of New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    Stryker, “Economic Impacts of the Loma Prieta Earthquake: A Focus on Small Business,” Berkeley Planning Journal, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1990, pp. 39 58...M. Dahlhamer, “Predicting Long-Term Business Recovery from Disaster: A Comparison of the Loma Prieta Earthquake and Hurricane Andrew,” Newark, Del...analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore

  9. Personalized Metabolomics for Predicting Glucose Tolerance Changes in Sedentary Women After High-Intensity Interval Training

    OpenAIRE

    Kuehnbaum, Naomi L.; Gillen, Jenna B.; Gibala, Martin J.; Britz-McKibbin, Philip

    2014-01-01

    High-intensity interval training (HIIT) offers a practical approach for enhancing cardiorespiratory fitness, however its role in improving glucose regulation among sedentary yet normoglycemic women remains unclear. Herein, multi-segment injection capillary electrophoresis-mass spectrometry is used as a high-throughput platform in metabolomics to assess dynamic responses of overweight/obese women (BMI > 25, n = 11) to standardized oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) performed before and after...

  10. Data mining predictive models for pervasive intelligent decision support in intensive care medicine

    OpenAIRE

    Portela, Filipe; Pinto, Filipe; Santos, Manuel Filipe

    2012-01-01

    The introduction of an Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) in a critical area like the Intensive Medicine is a complex and difficult process. In this area, their professionals don’t have much time to document the cases, because the patient direct care is always first. With the objective to reduce significantly the manual records and, enabling, at the same time, the possibility of developing an IDSS which can help in the decision making process, all data acquisition process ...

  11. Quantifying human mobility perturbation and resilience in Hurricane Sandy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qi; Taylor, John E

    2014-01-01

    Human mobility is influenced by environmental change and natural disasters. Researchers have used trip distance distribution, radius of gyration of movements, and individuals' visited locations to understand and capture human mobility patterns and trajectories. However, our knowledge of human movements during natural disasters is limited owing to both a lack of empirical data and the low precision of available data. Here, we studied human mobility using high-resolution movement data from individuals in New York City during and for several days after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. We found the human movements followed truncated power-law distributions during and after Hurricane Sandy, although the β value was noticeably larger during the first 24 hours after the storm struck. Also, we examined two parameters: the center of mass and the radius of gyration of each individual's movements. We found that their values during perturbation states and steady states are highly correlated, suggesting human mobility data obtained in steady states can possibly predict the perturbation state. Our results demonstrate that human movement trajectories experienced significant perturbations during hurricanes, but also exhibited high resilience. We expect the study will stimulate future research on the perturbation and inherent resilience of human mobility under the influence of hurricanes. For example, mobility patterns in coastal urban areas could be examined as hurricanes approach, gain or dissipate in strength, and as the path of the storm changes. Understanding nuances of human mobility under the influence of such disasters will enable more effective evacuation, emergency response planning and development of strategies and policies to reduce fatality, injury, and economic loss.

  12. Lightning and radar observations of hurricane Rita landfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henderson, Bradley G [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Suszcynsky, David M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hamlin, Timothy E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Jeffery, C A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Wiens, Kyle C [TEXAS TECH U.; Orville, R E [TEXAS A& M

    2009-01-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) owns and operates an array of Very-Low Frequency (VLF) sensors that measure the Radio-Frequency (RF) waveforms emitted by Cloud-to-Ground (CG) and InCloud (IC) lightning. This array, the Los Alamos Sferic Array (LASA), has approximately 15 sensors concentrated in the Great Plains and Florida, which detect electric field changes in a bandwidth from 200 Hz to 500 kHz (Smith et al., 2002). Recently, LANL has begun development of a new dual-band RF sensor array that includes the Very-High Frequency (VHF) band as well as the VLF. Whereas VLF lightning emissions can be used to deduce physical parameters such as lightning type and peak current, VHF emissions can be used to perform precise 3d mapping of individual radiation sources, which can number in the thousands for a typical CG flash. These new dual-band sensors will be used to monitor lightning activity in hurricanes in an effort to better predict intensification cycles. Although the new LANL dual-band array is not yet operational, we have begun initial work utilizing both VLF and VHF lightning data to monitor hurricane evolution. In this paper, we present the temporal evolution of Rita's landfall using VLF and VHF lightning data, and also WSR-88D radar. At landfall, Rita's northern eyewall experienced strong updrafts and significant lightning activity that appear to mark a transition between oceanic hurricane dynamics and continental thunderstorm dynamics. In section 2, we give a brief overview of Hurricane Rita, including its development as a hurricane and its lightning history. In the following section, we present WSR-88D data of Rita's landfall, including reflectivity images and temporal variation. In section 4, we present both VHF and VLF lightning data, overplotted on radar reflectivity images. Finally, we discuss our observations, including a comparison to previous studies and a brief conclusion.

  13. Quantifying human mobility perturbation and resilience in Hurricane Sandy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Wang

    Full Text Available Human mobility is influenced by environmental change and natural disasters. Researchers have used trip distance distribution, radius of gyration of movements, and individuals' visited locations to understand and capture human mobility patterns and trajectories. However, our knowledge of human movements during natural disasters is limited owing to both a lack of empirical data and the low precision of available data. Here, we studied human mobility using high-resolution movement data from individuals in New York City during and for several days after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. We found the human movements followed truncated power-law distributions during and after Hurricane Sandy, although the β value was noticeably larger during the first 24 hours after the storm struck. Also, we examined two parameters: the center of mass and the radius of gyration of each individual's movements. We found that their values during perturbation states and steady states are highly correlated, suggesting human mobility data obtained in steady states can possibly predict the perturbation state. Our results demonstrate that human movement trajectories experienced significant perturbations during hurricanes, but also exhibited high resilience. We expect the study will stimulate future research on the perturbation and inherent resilience of human mobility under the influence of hurricanes. For example, mobility patterns in coastal urban areas could be examined as hurricanes approach, gain or dissipate in strength, and as the path of the storm changes. Understanding nuances of human mobility under the influence of such disasters will enable more effective evacuation, emergency response planning and development of strategies and policies to reduce fatality, injury, and economic loss.

  14. Use of Windbreaks for Hurricane Protection of Critical Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyater-Adams, Sinone; DeYoung, Russell J.

    2012-01-01

    The protection of NASA Langley Research Center from future hurricanes is important in order to allow the center to fulfill its mission. The impact of the center is not only great within NASA but the economy as well. The infrastructure of the Center is under potential risk in the future because of more intense hurricanes with higher speed winds and flooding. A potential method of protecting the Center s facilities is the placement of a windbreak barrier composed of indigenous trees. The New Town program that is now in progress creates a more condensed area of focus for protection. A potential design for an efficient tree windbreak barrier for Langley Research center is proposed.

  15. Predicting changes in high-intensity intermittent running performance with acute responses to short jump rope workouts in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchheit, Martin; Rabbani, Alireza; Beigi, Hamid Taghi

    2014-09-01

    The aims of the present study were to 1) examine whether individual HR and RPE responses to a jump rope workout could be used to predict changes in high-intensity intermittent running performance in young athletes, and 2) examine the effect of using different methods to determine a smallest worthwhile change (SWC) on the interpretation of group-average and individual changes in the variables. Before and after an 8-week high-intensity training program, 13 children athletes (10.6 ± 0.9 yr) performed a high-intensity running test (30-15 Intermittent Fitness Test, VIFT) and three jump rope workouts, where HR and RPE were collected. The SWC was defined as either 1/5(th) of the between-subjects standard deviation or the variable typical error (CV). After training, the large ~9% improvement in VIFT was very likely, irrespective of the SWC. Standardized changes were greater for RPE (very likely-to-almost certain, ~30-60% changes, ~4-16 times >SWC) than for HR (likely-to-very likely, ~2-6% changes, ~1-6 times >SWC) responses. Using the CV as the SWC lead to the smallest and greatest changes for HR and RPE, respectively. The predictive value for individual performance changes tended to be better for HR (74-92%) than RPE (69%), and greater when using the CV as the SWC. The predictive value for no-performance change was low for both measures (jump rope workouts can predict substantial improvements in high-intensity running performance at the individual level. Using the CV of test measures as the SWC might be the better option. Key pointsDecreased HR and RPE responses to short jump rope workouts can be confidently used to track improvements in high-intensity intermittent running performance in children familiarized with this exercise mode. Rope jumping is a particularly convenient exercise, since it can be performed in a restricted space and allows the testing of a large number of athletes simultaneously.We recommend using the CV of the measures (i.e., 3 and 4% for HR and RPE

  16. Improving Post-Hurricane Katrina Forest Management with MODIS Time Series Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Mark David; Spruce, Joseph; Evans, David; Anderson, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Hurricane damage to forests can be severe, causing millions of dollars of timber damage and loss. To help mitigate loss, state agencies require information on location, intensity, and extent of damaged forests. NASA's MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series data products offers a potential means for state agencies to monitor hurricane-induced forest damage and recovery across a broad region. In response, a project was conducted to produce and assess 250 meter forest disturbance and recovery maps for areas in southern Mississippi impacted by Hurricane Katrina. The products and capabilities from the project were compiled to aid work of the Mississippi Institute for Forest Inventory (MIFI). A series of NDVI change detection products were computed to assess hurricane induced damage and recovery. Hurricane-induced forest damage maps were derived by computing percent change between MODIS MOD13 16-day composited NDVI pre-hurricane "baseline" products (2003 and 2004) and post-hurricane NDVI products (2005). Recovery products were then computed in which post storm 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 NDVI data was each singularly compared to the historical baseline NDVI. All percent NDVI change considered the 16-day composite period of August 29 to September 13 for each year in the study. This provided percent change in the maximum NDVI for the 2 week period just after the hurricane event and for each subsequent anniversary through 2009, resulting in forest disturbance products for 2005 and recovery products for the following 4 years. These disturbance and recovery products were produced for the Mississippi Institute for Forest Inventory's (MIFI) Southeast Inventory District and also for the entire hurricane impact zone. MIFI forest inventory products were used as ground truth information for the project. Each NDVI percent change product was classified into 6 categories of forest disturbance intensity. Stand age

  17. The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Mental and Physical Health of Low-Income Parents in New Orleans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Jean; Chan, Christian; Paxson, Christina; Rouse, Cecilia Elena; Waters, Mary; Fussell, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to document changes in mental and physical health among 392 low-income parents exposed to Hurricane Katrina and to explore how hurricane-related stressors and loss relate to post-Katrina well being. The prevalence of probable serious mental illness doubled, and nearly half of the respondents exhibited probable PTSD. Higher levels of hurricane-related loss and stressors were generally associated with worse health outcomes, controlling for baseline socio-demographic and health measures. Higher baseline resources predicted fewer hurricane-associated stressors, but the consequences of stressors and loss were similar regardless of baseline resources. Adverse health consequences of Hurricane Katrina persisted for a year or more, and were most severe for those experiencing the most stressors and loss. Long-term health and mental health services are needed for low-income disaster survivors, especially those who experience disaster-related stressors and loss. PMID:20553517

  18. Unique and related predictors of major depressive disorder, posttraumatic stress disorder, and their comorbidity after Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nillni, Yael I; Nosen, Elizabeth; Williams, Patrick A; Tracy, Melissa; Coffey, Scott F; Galea, Sandro

    2013-10-01

    The current study examined demographic and psychosocial factors that predict major depressive disorder (MDD) and comorbid MDD/posttraumatic stress disorder (MDD/PTSD) diagnostic status after Hurricane Katrina, one of the deadliest and costliest hurricanes in the history of the United States. This study expanded on the findings published in the article by Galea, Tracy, Norris, and Coffey (J Trauma Stress 21:357-368, 2008), which examined the same predictors for PTSD, to better understand related and unique predictors of MDD, PTSD, and MDD/PTSD comorbidity. A total of 810 individuals representative of adult residents living in the 23 southernmost counties of Mississippi before Hurricane Katrina were interviewed. Ongoing hurricane-related stressors, low social support, and hurricane-related financial loss were common predictors of MDD, PTSD, and MDD/PTSD, whereas educational and marital status emerged as unique predictors of MDD. Implications for postdisaster relief efforts that address the risk for both MDD and PTSD are discussed.

  19. The impact of hurricane Katrina on the mental and physical health of low-income parents in New Orleans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Jean; Chan, Christian; Paxson, Christina; Rouse, Cecilia Elena; Waters, Mary; Fussell, Elizabeth

    2010-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to document changes in mental and physical health among 392 low-income parents exposed to Hurricane Katrina and to explore how hurricane-related stressors and loss relate to post-Katrina well-being. The prevalence of probable serious mental illness doubled, and nearly half of the respondents exhibited probable posttraumatic stress disorder. Higher levels of hurricane-related loss and stressors were generally associated with worse health outcomes, controlling for baseline sociodemographic and health measures. Higher baseline resources predicted fewer hurricane-associated stressors, but the consequences of stressors and loss were similar regardless of baseline resources. Adverse health consequences of Hurricane Katrina persisted for a year or more and were most severe for those experiencing the most stressors and loss. Long-term health and mental health services are needed for low-income disaster survivors, especially those who experience disaster-related stressors and loss.

  20. Predicting job-seeking intensity and job-seeking intention in the sample of unemployed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marić Zorica

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study Ajzen' theory (1991 of planned behavior was used to predict job - seek intention and behavior among unemployed people (N = 650. In addition to theory of planned behavior variables (job - seek attitude, subjective norm, self - efficacy and controllability of job seek process we used several other psychological (financial pressure, self - mastery, self - esteem and depression and demographic (gender, age, education, marriage and lent of unemployment variables to build a model of predictors for both criterion variables. Financial pressure, intention to seek employment, job seek - self - efficacy, job - seek controllability, marriage and job - seek attitude predicted job - seeking behavior, while attitude toward job - seeking, subjective norm, job - seek self - efficacy and financial pressure predicted job seek - intention. Results are discussed in light of theory of planned behavior, current research of job - seeking behavior and recommendations are made for practice.

  1. Validation of a probabilistic model for hurricane insurance loss projections in Florida

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinelli, J.-P. [Florida Tech, Melbourne, Florida (United States)], E-mail: pinelli@fit.edu; Gurley, K.R. [University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida (United States); Subramanian, C.S. [Florida Tech, Melbourne, Florida (United States); Hamid, S.S. [Florida International University, Miami, Florida (United States); Pita, G.L. [Florida Tech, Melbourne, Florida (United States)

    2008-12-15

    The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model is one of the first public models accessible for scrutiny to the scientific community, incorporating state of the art techniques in hurricane and vulnerability modeling. The model was developed for Florida, and is applicable to other hurricane-prone regions where construction practice is similar. The 2004 hurricane season produced substantial losses in Florida, and provided the means to validate and calibrate this model against actual claim data. This paper presents the predicted losses for several insurance portfolios corresponding to hurricanes Andrew, Charley, and Frances. The predictions are validated against the actual claim data. Physical damage predictions for external building components are also compared to observed damage. The analyses show that the predictive capabilities of the model were substantially improved after the calibration against the 2004 data. The methodology also shows that the predictive capabilities of the model could be enhanced if insurance companies report more detailed information about the structures they insure and the types of damage they suffer. This model can be a powerful tool for the study of risk reduction strategies.

  2. Predicting Calcium Values for Gastrointestinal Bleeding Patients in Intensive Care Unit Using Clinical Variables and Fuzzy Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G Khalili-Zadeh-Mahani

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Reducing unnecessary laboratory tests is an essential issue in the Intensive Care Unit. One solution for this issue is to predict the value of a laboratory test to specify the necessity of ordering the tests. The aim of this paper was to propose a clinical decision support system for predicting laboratory tests values. Calcium laboratory tests of three categories of patients, including upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding, and unspecified hemorrhage of gastrointestinal tract, have been selected as the case studies for this research. Method: In this research, the data have been collected from MIMIC-II database. For predicting calcium laboratory values, a Fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno model is used and the input variables of the model are heart rate and previous value of calcium laboratory test. Results: The results showed that the values of calcium laboratory test for the understudy patients were predictable with an acceptable accuracy. In average, the mean absolute errors of the system for the three categories of the patients are 0.27, 0.29, and 0.28, respectively. Conclusion: In this research, using fuzzy modeling and two variables of heart rate and previous calcium laboratory values, a clinical decision support system was proposed for predicting laboratory values of three categories of patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Using these two clinical values as input variables, the obtained results were acceptable and showed the capability of the proposed system in predicting calcium laboratory values. For achieving better results, the impact of more input variables should be studied. Since, the proposed system predicts the laboratory values instead of just predicting the necessity of the laboratory tests; it was more generalized than previous studies. So, the proposed method let the specialists make the decision depending on the condition of each patient.

  3. The great Louisiana hurricane of August 1812

    OpenAIRE

    Mock, Cary J.; Chenoweth, Michael; Altamirano, Isabel; Rodgers, Matthew D.; García Herrera, Ricardo

    2010-01-01

    Major hurricanes are prominent meteorological hazards of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts. However, the official modern record of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones starts at 1851, and it does not provide a comprehensive measure of the frequency and magnitude of major hurricanes. Vast amounts of documentary weather data extend back several centuries, but many of these have not yet been fully utilized for hurricane reconstruction. These sources include weather diaries, ship logbooks, ship prote...

  4. Hurricane Excitation of Earth Eigenmodes

    OpenAIRE

    Peters, Randall D.

    2005-01-01

    A non-conventional vertical seismometer, with good low-frequency sensitivity, was used to study earth motions in Macon, Georgia USA during the time of hurricane Charley, August 2004. During its transitions between water and land, the powerful storm showed an interesting history of microseisms and also generated more than half-a-dozen surprisingly coherent oscillations, whose frequencies ranged from 0.9 to 3 mHz.

  5. Hurricane Boundary-Layer Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    2501. Kundu PK. 1990. Fluid Mechanics . Academic Press: San Diego, USA. Kuo HL. 1982. Vortex boundary layer under quadratic surface stress. Boundary...identification of two mechanisms for the spin-up of the mean tangential circulation of a hurricane. The first involves convergence of absolute angular...momentum above the boundary layer, where this quantity is approximately conserved. This mechanism acts to spin up the outer circulation at radii

  6. Lessons Learnt From Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akundi, Murty

    2008-03-01

    Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and its suburbs on Monday August 29^th, 2005. The previous Friday morning, August 26, the National Hurricane Center indicated that Katrina was a Category One Hurricane, which was expected to hit Florida. By Friday afternoon, it had changed its course, and neither the city nor Xavier University was prepared for this unexpected turn in the hurricane's path. The university had 6 to 7 ft of water in every building and Xavier was closed for four months. Students and university personnel that were unable to evacuate were trapped on campus and transportation out of the city became a logistical nightmare. Email and all electronic systems were unavailable for at least a month, and all cell phones with a 504 area code stopped working. For the Department, the most immediate problem was locating faculty and students. Xavier created a list of faculty and their new email addresses and began coordinating with faculty. Xavier created a web page with advice for students, and the chair of the department created a separate blog with contact information for students. The early lack of a clear method of communication made worse the confusion and dismay among the faculty on such issues as when the university would reopen, whether the faculty would be retained, whether they should seek temporary (or permanent) employment elsewhere, etc. With the vision and determination of President Dr. Francis, Xavier was able to reopen the university in January and ran a full academic year from January through August. Since Katrina, the university has asked every department and unit to prepare emergency preparedness plans. Each department has been asked to collect e-mail addresses (non-Xavier), cell phone numbers and out of town contact information. The University also established an emergency website to communicate. All faculty have been asked to prepare to teach classes electronically via Black board or the web. Questions remain about the longer term issues of

  7. Hurricane Wind Speed Estimation Using WindSat 6 and 10 GHz Brightness Temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The realistic and accurate estimation of hurricane intensity is highly desired in many scientific and operational applications. With the advance of passive microwave polarimetry, an alternative opportunity for retrieving wind speed in hurricanes has become available. A wind speed retrieval algorithm for wind speeds above 20 m/s in hurricanes has been developed by using the 6.8 and 10.7 GHz vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperatures of WindSat. The WindSat measurements for 15 category 4 and category 5 hurricanes from 2003 to 2010 and the corresponding H*wind analysis data are used to develop and validate the retrieval model. In addition, the retrieved wind speeds are also compared to the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS global all-weather product and stepped-frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR measurements. The statistical results show that the mean bias and the overall root-mean-square (RMS difference of the retrieved wind speeds with respect to the H*wind analysis data are 0.04 and 2.75 m/s, respectively, which provides an encouraging result for retrieving hurricane wind speeds over the ocean surface. The retrieved wind speeds show good agreement with the SFMR measurements. Two case studies demonstrate that the mean bias and RMS difference are 0.79 m/s and 1.79 m/s for hurricane Rita-1 and 0.63 m/s and 2.38 m/s for hurricane Rita-2, respectively. In general, the wind speed retrieval accuracy of the new model in hurricanes ranges from 2.0 m/s in light rain to 3.9 m/s in heavy rain.

  8. Simulation of hurricane response to suppression of warm rain by sub-micron aerosols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Rosenfeld

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available The feasibility of hurricane modification was investigated for hurricane Katrina using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF. The possible impact of seeding of clouds with submicron cloud condensation nuclei (CCN on hurricane structure and intensity as measured by nearly halving of the area covered by hurricane force winds was simulated by "turning–off" warm rain formation in the clouds at Katrina's periphery (where wind speeds were less than 22 m s−1. This simplification of the simulation of aerosol effects is aimed at evaluating the largest possible response. This resulted in the weakening of the hurricane surface winds compared to the "non-seeded" simulated storm during the first 24 h within the entire tropical cyclone (TC area compared to a control simulation without warm rain suppression. Later, the seeding-induced evaporative cooling at the TC periphery led to a shrinking of the eye and hence to some increase in the wind within the small central area of the TC. Yet, the overall strength of the hurricane decreased in response to the suppressed warm rain at the periphery, as measured by a 25% reduction in the radius of hurricane force winds. In a simulation with warm rain suppression throughout the hurricane, the relative weakening compared to the control continued throughout the simulations and the eye shrunk even further. This shows that the main mechanism by which suppressing warm rain weakens the TC is the low level evaporative cooling of the un-precipitated cloud drops and the added cooling due to melting of precipitation that falls from above.

  9. Post-Hurricane Successional Dynamics in Abundance and Diversity of Canopy Arthropods in a Tropical Rainforest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schowalter, T D; Willig, M R; Presley, S J

    2017-02-01

    We quantified long-term successional trajectories of canopy arthropods on six tree species in a tropical rainforest ecosystem in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico that experienced repeated hurricane-induced disturbances during the 19-yr study (1991-2009). We expected: 1) differential performances of arthropod species to result in taxon- or guild-specific responses; 2) differences in initial conditions to result in distinct successional responses to each hurricane; and 3) the legacy of hurricane-created gaps to persist despite subsequent disturbances. At least one significant effect of gap, time after hurricane, or their interaction occurred for 53 of 116 analyses of taxon abundance, 31 of 84 analyses of guild abundance, and 21 of 60 analyses of biodiversity (e.g., richness, evenness, dominance, and rarity). Significant responses were ∼60% more common for time after hurricane than for gap creation, indicating that temporal changes in habitat during recovery were of primary importance. Both increases and decreases in abundance or diversity occurred in response to each factor. Guild-level responses were probably driven by changes in the abundance of resources on which they rely. For example, detritivores were most abundant soon after hurricanes when litter resources were elevated, whereas sap-suckers were most abundant in gaps where new foliage growth was the greatest. The legacy of canopy gaps created by Hurricane Hugo persisted for at least 19 yr, despite droughts and other hurricanes of various intensities that caused forest damage. This reinforces the need to consider historical legacies when seeking to understand responses to disturbance. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

  11. Dynamic Hurricane Data Analysis Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knosp, Brian W.; Li, Peggy; Vu, Quoc A.

    2009-01-01

    A dynamic hurricane data analysis tool allows users of the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) to analyze data over a Web medium. The TCIS software is described in the previous article, Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) (NPO-45748). This tool interfaces with the TCIS database to pull in data from several different atmospheric and oceanic data sets, both observed by instruments. Users can use this information to generate histograms, maps, and profile plots for specific storms. The tool also displays statistical values for the user-selected parameter for the mean, standard deviation, median, minimum, and maximum values. There is little wait time, allowing for fast data plots over date and spatial ranges. Users may also zoom-in for a closer look at a particular spatial range. This is version 1 of the software. Researchers will use the data and tools on the TCIS to understand hurricane processes, improve hurricane forecast models and identify what types of measurements the next generation of instruments will need to collect.

  12. Intensity of territorial marking predicts wolf reproduction: implications for wolf monitoring.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Llaneza

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The implementation of intensive and complex approaches to monitor large carnivores is resource demanding, restricted to endangered species, small populations, or small distribution ranges. Wolf monitoring over large spatial scales is difficult, but the management of such contentious species requires regular estimations of abundance to guide decision-makers. The integration of wolf marking behaviour with simple sign counts may offer a cost-effective alternative to monitor the status of wolf populations over large spatial scales. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a multi-sampling approach, based on the collection of visual and scent wolf marks (faeces and ground scratching and the assessment of wolf reproduction using howling and observation points, to test whether the intensity of marking behaviour around the pup-rearing period (summer-autumn could reflect wolf reproduction. Between 1994 and 2007 we collected 1,964 wolf marks in a total of 1,877 km surveyed and we searched for the pups' presence (1,497 howling and 307 observations points in 42 sampling sites with a regular presence of wolves (120 sampling sites/year. The number of wolf marks was ca. 3 times higher in sites with a confirmed presence of pups (20.3 vs. 7.2 marks. We found a significant relationship between the number of wolf marks (mean and maximum relative abundance index and the probability of wolf reproduction. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This research establishes a real-time relationship between the intensity of wolf marking behaviour and wolf reproduction. We suggest a conservative cutting point of 0.60 for the probability of wolf reproduction to monitor wolves on a regional scale combined with the use of the mean relative abundance index of wolf marks in a given area. We show how the integration of wolf behaviour with simple sampling procedures permit rapid, real-time, and cost-effective assessments of the breeding status of wolf packs with substantial

  13. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE: We sought to investigate whether preadmission quality of life could act as a predictor of mortality among patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a prospective observational study of all patients above the age of 18 years admitted to the ICU...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....... with a length of stay longer than 24 hours. Short form 36 (SF-36) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) were used. Mortality was assessed during ICU admission, 30, and 90 days hereafter. RESULTS: We included 318 patients. No patients were lost to follow-up. Using the physical...

  14. The predictability of bleeding by prothrombin times sensitive or insensitive to PIVKA during intensive oral anticoagulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnesen, H; Smith, P

    1991-02-01

    To evaluate the effect of PIVKA (Proteins Induced by Vitamin K Absence or Antagonism) on the bleeding tendency during oral anticoagulation, we studied consecutive patients intensively treated with warfarin (INR greater than 4.8). The level of anticoagulation was measured with the PIVKA-insensitive Normotest (NT) as well as with the PIVKA-sensitive Thrombotest (TT), and the results are expressed as per cent coagulant activity. The NT/TT ratio was determined. Twenty patients with bleeding episodes had a mean NT/TT ratio of 2.06 as compared to 2.20 in 143 patients without bleeding episodes (p = 0.08). As the NT/TT ratio was not higher in patients with bleedings, we conclude that PIVKA are of no importance for bleeding during anticoagulation with vitamin K antagonists.

  15. Physical activity of relatively high intensity in mid-pregnancy predicts lower glucose tolerance levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medek, Helga; Halldorsson, Thorhallur; Gunnarsdottir, Ingibjörg; Geirsson, Reynir T

    2016-09-01

    Physical activity (PA) is recommended as part of therapy for patients with impaired glucose tolerance. Whether such recommendations are also justified for pregnant women is less well established. We investigated the association between PA and glucose tolerance in pregnancy. A non-selective sample of 217 pregnant women was recruited at a routine 20 week ultrasound examination. Participants answered the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) about frequency, intensity and duration of daily physical activity in the past 7 days and underwent oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT) between 24 and 28 weeks. A subset of 72 overweight/obese pregnant women wore a pedometer for 1 week with assessment of IPAQ score and pedometric correlations to this. Of the sample, 177 attended for OGTT; 51% were overweight or obese. The mean (SD) fasting glucose was 4.5 (0.4) mmol/L, and 12% had gestational diabetes mellitus. Only one-third engaged in vigorous PA. After adjustment for pre-pregnancy BMI, age and parity, those engaging in vigorous PA had significantly lower fasting glucose levels (by 0.15 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.03-0.27) compared with those not vigorously active. This decrease was similar in both normal and overweight/obese women. There were fewer cases of gestational diabetes (p = 0.03) among the vigorously active women (3/56; 5%) than among those who were not active (19/121; 16%). No association with glucose tolerance was observed for physical activity of moderate intensity. Only vigorous physical activity appears beneficial with respect to maternal glucose tolerance, both among normal, overweight and obese women. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  16. African Dust Influence on Atlantic Hurricane Activity and the Peculiar Behaviour of Category 5 Hurricanes

    CERN Document Server

    Herrera, Victor M Velasco; H., Graciela Velasco; Gonzalez, Laura Luna

    2010-01-01

    We study the specific influence of African dust on each one of the categories of Atlantic hurricanes. By applying wavelet analysis, we find a strong decadal modulation of African dust on Category 5 hurricanes and an annual modulation on all other categories of hurricanes. We identify the formation of Category 5 hurricanes occurring mainly around the decadal minimum variation of African dust and in deep water areas of the Atlantic Ocean, where hurricane eyes have the lowest pressure. According to our results, future tropical cyclones will not evolve to Category 5 until the next decadal minimum that is, by the year 2015 +/- 2.

  17. Mitigation of hurricane storm surge impacts: Modeling scenarios over wide continental shelves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima Rego, Joao; Li, Chunyan

    2010-05-01

    The improvement of present understanding of surge dynamics over wide and shallow shelves is vital for the improvement of our ability to forecast storm surge impacts to coastal regions, particularly the low-lying land areas that are most vulnerable to hurricane flooding (e.g. the Northern Gulf of Mexico, coastal Bangladesh, the Southeast China sea). Given the increase of global sea-surface temperature, both the total number and proportion of intense tropical cyclones have increased notably since 1970 (Emanuel, 2005; Nature). Therefore, more intense hurricanes may hit densely populated coastal regions, and this problem may be aggravated by the prospect of accelerated sea-level rise in the 21st century. This presentation offers a review of recent work on hurricane-induced storm surge. The finite-volume coastal ocean model ("FVCOM", by Chen et al., 2003; J. Atmos. Ocean Tech.) was applied to the storm surge induced by Hurricanes Rita and Ike along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas in 2005 and 2008, respectively, to study coastal storm surge dynamics. The sensitivity analysis of Rego and Li (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett.) demonstrated how stronger, wider or faster tropical cyclones would affect coastal flooding. Li, Weeks and Rego (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett) looked into how hurricane flooding and receding dynamics differ, concluding that the overland flow in the latter stage is of considerable importance. Rego and Li (2010; J. Geophys. Res.) showed how extreme events may result of a combination of non-extreme factors, by studying the nonlinear interaction of tide and hurricane surge. The ability of models to reproduce these extreme events and to proactive plan for damage reduction is covered in Rego and Li's (2010; J. Marine Syst.) study of how barrier island systems protect coastal bays from offshore surge propagation. Here we combine these results for a wider perspective on how hurricane flooding could be mitigated under changing conditions.

  18. Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Ranganathan, Meghana; L'Heureux, Michelle; Barnston, Anthony G.; DelSole, Timothy

    2017-05-01

    Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability forecasts (1982-2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. Three-category forecasts are typical and provide probabilities for the ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña or neutral). Additional forecast categories indicate the likelihood of ENSO conditions being weak, moderate or strong. The level of skill observed for differing numbers of forecast categories can help to determine the appropriate degree of forecast precision. However, the dependence of the skill score itself on the number of forecast categories must be taken into account. For reliable forecasts with same quality, the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) is fairly insensitive to the number of categories, while the logarithmic skill score (LSS) is an information measure and increases as categories are added. The ignorance skill score decreases to zero as forecast categories are added, regardless of skill level. For all models, forecast formats and skill scores, the northern spring predictability barrier explains much of the dependence of skill on target month and forecast lead. RPSS values for monthly ENSO forecasts show little dependence on the number of categories. However, the LSS of multimodel ensemble forecasts with five and seven categories show statistically significant advantages over the three-category forecasts for the targets and leads that are least affected by the spring predictability barrier. These findings indicate that current prediction systems are capable of providing more detailed probabilistic forecasts of ENSO phase and amplitude than are typically provided.

  19. The Ocean Boundary Layer beneath Hurricane Frances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasaro, E. A.; Sanford, T. B.; Terrill, E.; Price, J.

    2006-12-01

    The upper ocean beneath the peak winds of Hurricane Frances (57 m/s) was measured using several varieties of air-deployed floats as part of CBLAST. A multilayer structure was observed as the boundary layer deepened from 20m to 120m in about 12 hours. Bubbles generated by breaking waves create a 10m thick surface layer with a density anomaly, due to the bubbles, of about 1 kg/m3. This acts to lubricate the near surface layer. A turbulent boundary layer extends beneath this to about 40 m depth. This is characterized by large turbulent eddies spanning the boundary layer. A stratified boundary layer grows beneath this reaching 120m depth. This is characterized by a gradient Richardson number of 1/4, which is maintained by strong inertial currents generated by the hurricane, and smaller turbulent eddies driven by the shear instead of the wind and waves. There is little evidence of mixing beneath this layer. Heat budgets reveal the boundary layer to be nearly one dimensional through much of the deepening, with horizontal and vertical heat advection becoming important only after the storm had passed. Turbulent kinetic energy measurements support the idea of reduced surface drag at high wind speeds. The PWP model correctly predicts the degree of mixed layer deepening if the surface drag is reduced at high wind speed. Overall, the greatest uncertainty in understanding the ocean boundary layer at these extreme wind speeds is a characterization of the near- surface processes which govern the air-sea fluxes and surface wave properties.

  20. The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum: Forecasting Hurricane Effects at Landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negri, A.; Golden, J. H.; Updike, R.

    2004-01-01

    Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones strike Central American, Caribbean, Southeast Asian and Pacific Island nations even more frequently than the U.S. The global losses of life and property from the floods, landslides and debris flows caused by cyclonic storms are staggering. One of the keys to reducing these losses, both in the U.S. and internationally, is to have better forecasts of what is about to happen from several hours to days before the event. Particularly in developing nations where science, technology and communication are limited, advance-warning systems can have great impact. In developing countries, warnings of even a few hours or days can mitigate or reduce catastrophic losses of life. With the foregoing needs in mind, we propose an initial project of three years total duration that will aim to develop and transfer a warning system for a prototype region in the Central Caribbean, specifically the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum will include satellite observations to track and nowcast dangerous levels of precipitation, atmospheric and hydrological models to predict near-future runoff, and streamflow changes in affected regions, and landslide models to warn when and where landslides and debris flows are imminent. Since surface communications are likely to be interrupted during these crises, the project also includes the capability to communicate disaster information via satellite to vital government officials in Puerto Rico, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.

  1. Nexrad-In-Space - A Geostationary Satellite Doppler Weather Radar for Hurricane Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, E.; Chandrasekar, V.; Chen, S. S.; Holland, G. J.; Kakar, R.; Lewis, W. E.; Marks, F. D.; Smith, E. A.; Tanelli, S.; Tripoli, G. J.

    2007-12-01

    The Nexrad-In-Space (NIS) is a revolutionary atmospheric radar observation concept from the geostationary orbiting platform. It was developed over the last 4 years under the auspices of NASA's Earth Science Instrument Incubator Program (IIP). The NIS radar would provide Ka-band (35 GHz) reflectivity and line-of-sight Doppler velocity profiles over a circular Earth region of approximately 5200 km in diameter with a 12-km horizontal resolution, and a minimum detectable signal of 5 dBZ. The NIS radar achieves its superb sampling capabilities by use of a 35-m diameter, deployable antenna made from lightweight membrane material. The antenna has two transmit-receive array pairs that create a dual-beam, spiral-feed combined profile image of both reflectivity and Doppler velocity approximately every 60 minutes. This sampling time can be shortened even further by increasing the number of transmit-receive array pairs. It is generally recognized that the processes important in governing hurricane intensity and structure span a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The environmental forcing considerations require a large domain. The vortex response to the environmental forcing ultimately involves convection on small horizontal scales in the eyewall and rainband regions. Resolving this environment-vortex-convection feedback in a numerical model requires observations on the space and time scales necessary to unambiguously define these structures within and surrounding the tropical cyclone. Because the time and space scales of these processes are small, continuous 3-dimensional independent observations of the 3-dimensional wind and precipitation structures will be needed to initialize numerical models critical for this purpose. The proposed NIS Doppler radar would be the first instrument capable of accomplishing this feat at time scales less than hours, and would create the opportunity for hurricane science to enter a new era of understanding and improved prediction. This

  2. Personality diatheses and Hurricane Sandy: effects on post-disaster depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopala-Sibley, D. C.; Kotov, R.; Bromet, E. J.; Carlson, G. A.; Danzig, A. P.; Black, S. R.; Klein, D. N.

    2015-01-01

    Background According to diathesis–stress models, personality traits, such as negative emotionality (NE) and positive emotionality (PE), may moderate the effects of stressors on the development of depression. However, relatively little empirical research has directly examined whether NE and PE act as diatheses in the presence of stressful life events, and no research has examined whether they moderate the effect of disaster exposure on depressive symptoms. Hurricane Sandy, the second costliest hurricane in US history, offers a unique opportunity to address these gaps. Method A total of 318 women completed measures of NE and PE 5 years prior to Hurricane Sandy. They were also assessed for lifetime depressive disorders on two occasions, the latter occurring an average of 1 year before the hurricane. Approximately 8 weeks after the disaster (mean = 8.40, s.d. = 1.48 weeks), participants completed a hurricane stress exposure questionnaire and a measure of current depressive symptoms. Results Adjusting for lifetime history of depressive disorders, higher levels of stress from Hurricane Sandy predicted elevated levels of depressive symptoms, but only in participants with high levels of NE or low levels of PE. Conclusions These findings support the role of personality in the development of depression and suggest that personality traits can be useful in identifying those most vulnerable to major stressors, including natural disasters. PMID:26619902

  3. Trematode communities in snails can indicate impact and recovery from hurricanes in a tropical coastal lagoon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre-Macedo, María Leopoldina; Vidal-Martínez, Victor M; Lafferty, Kevin D

    2011-11-01

    In September 2002, Hurricane Isidore devastated the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. To understand its effects on the parasites of aquatic organisms, we analyzed long-term monthly population data of the horn snail Cerithidea pliculosa and its trematode communities in Celestún, Yucatán, Mexico before and after the hurricane (February 2001 to December 2009). Five trematode species occurred in the snail population: Mesostephanus appendiculatoides, Euhaplorchis californiensis, two species of the genus Renicola and one Heterophyidae gen. sp. Because these parasites use snails as first intermediate hosts, fishes as second intermediate hosts and birds as final hosts, their presence in snails depends on food webs. No snails were present at the sampled sites for 6 months after the hurricane. After snails recolonised the site, no trematodes were found in snails until 14 months after the hurricane. It took several years for snail and trematode populations to recover. Our results suggest that the increase in the occurrence of hurricanes predicted due to climate change can impact upon parasites with complex life cycles. However, both the snail populations and their parasite communities eventually reached numbers of individuals and species similar to those before the hurricane. Thus, the trematode parasites of snails can be useful indicators of coastal lagoon ecosystem degradation and recovery.

  4. Trematode communities in snails can indicate impact and recovery from hurricanes in a tropical coastal lagoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre-Macedo, Maria Leopoldina; Vidal-Martinez, Victor M.; Lafferty, Kevin D.

    2011-01-01

    In September 2002, Hurricane Isidore devastated the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. To understand its effects on the parasites of aquatic organisms, we analyzed long-term monthly population data of the horn snail Cerithidea pliculosa and its trematode communities in Celestún, Yucatán, Mexico before and after the hurricane (February 2001 to December 2009). Five trematode species occurred in the snail population: Mesostephanus appendiculatoides, Euhaplorchis californiensis, two species of the genus Renicola and one Heterophyidae gen. sp. Because these parasites use snails as first intermediate hosts, fishes as second intermediate hosts and birds as final hosts, their presence in snails depends on food webs. No snails were present at the sampled sites for 6 months after the hurricane. After snails recolonised the site, no trematodes were found in snails until 14 months after the hurricane. It took several years for snail and trematode populations to recover. Our results suggest that the increase in the occurrence of hurricanes predicted due to climate change can impact upon parasites with complex life cycles. However, both the snail populations and their parasite communities eventually reached numbers of individuals and species similar to those before the hurricane. Thus, the trematode parasites of snails can be useful indicators of coastal lagoon ecosystem degradation and recovery.

  5. Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) Simulated with a Global Mesoscale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; DeMaria, Mark; Li, J.-L. F.; Cheung, S.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22-26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16-18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21-23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation.

  6. Models of experimental competitive intensities predict home and away differences in invasive impact and the effects of an endophytic mutualist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Sa; Callaway, Ragan M; Newcombe, George; Aschehoug, Erik T

    2012-12-01

    Understanding the role of competition in the organization of communities is limited in part by the difficulty of extrapolating the outcomes of small-scale experiments to how such outcomes might affect the distribution and abundance of species. We modeled the community-level outcomes of competition, using experimentally derived competitive effects and responses between an exotic invasive plant, Centaurea stoebe, and species from both its native and nonnative ranges and using changes in these effects and responses elicited by experimentally establishing symbioses between C. stoebe and fungal endophytes. Using relative interaction intensities (RIIs) and holding other life-history factors constant, individual-based and spatially explicit models predicted competitive exclusion of all but one North American species but none of the European species, regardless of the endophyte status of C. stoebe. Concomitantly, C. stoebe was eliminated from the models with European natives but was codominant in models with North American natives. Endophyte symbiosis predicted increased dominance of C. stoebe in North American communities but not in European communities. However, when experimental variation was included, some of the model outcomes changed slightly. Our results are consistent with the idea that the effects of competitive intensity and mutualisms measured at small scales have the potential to play important roles in determining the larger-scale outcomes of invasion and that the stabilizing indirect effects of competition may promote species coexistence.

  7. Severe acidosis does not predict fatal outcomes in intensive care unit patients: a retrospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz, Yoav; Zegerman, Alexander; Sorkine, Patrick; Matot, Idit

    2014-04-01

    Severe acidosis is a potentially life-threatening acid-base imbalance. The outcome of patients with severe acidosis has only been anecdotally described. We therefore assessed the discharge rate of such patients from the intensive care unit (ICU) and survival time after the event. A retrospective evaluation of medical records of patients admitted to the ICU of Tel Aviv Medical Center between 2005 and 2010, in whom arterial blood pH less than 6.8 was documented during their ICU stay, was performed. Twenty-eight patients were suitable for study entry. Septic shock was the most common underlying medical condition (33%). Nine (32.1%) patients were either discharged alive or survived for at least 30 days in the ICU after their arterial blood pH measurement was less than 6.8. More than a quarter of the patients with life-threatening acidosis (n = 8; 28.6%) were discharged home and returned to their prehospitalization daily activity. Mean follow-up period for these patients was 132 ± 111 weeks. Multivariate analysis identified hyperkalemia, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, and Glasgow Coma Scale as determinants for ICU death after severe acidosis. A significant number of patients can outlast severe acidosis and return to their prehospitalization status. Larger studies are needed to define the patient population most likely to benefit from aggressive resuscitation efforts during severe acidosis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Serodiagnostic markers for the prediction of the outcome of intensive phase tuberculosis therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, Ralf; Kaempfer, Susanne; Chegou, Novel N; Nene, Nonhlanhla F; Veenstra, Hanne; Spallek, Ralf; Bolliger, Chris T; Lukey, Pauline T; van Helden, Paul D; Singh, Mahavir; Walzl, Gerhard

    2013-03-01

    Treatment failure and relapse may affect many tuberculosis (TB) patients who undergo standard anti-TB therapy. Several independent studies suggested unsuccessful sputum culture conversion at month 2 of treatment (slow response) as risk factor for treatment failure and relapse. However, earlier than month 2 identification of patients with a high risk for poor treatment outcome would offer significant clinical trial and individual patient care benefits. The sensitivity and specificity of serological IgG and IgA responses against four recombinant mycobacterial antigens (ABC transporter PstS3, secreted l-alanine dehydrogenase, culture filtrate protein Tpx and 6 kDa early secretory antigenic target esxa (ESAT-6)) were evaluated separately in a blinded fashion in 21 smear-positive pulmonary TB patient sera taken at diagnosis before commencement of directly observed anti-TB treatment short course comprising 13 slow responder and eight fast responder subjects. We observed a general pattern of higher antibody levels in sera of slow responders. Most pronounced were high levels of anti-alanine dehydrogenase IgG, anti-Tpx IgG, anti-ESAT-6 IgG and anti-ESAT-6 IgA antibodies at diagnosis being associated with slow response with 100% specificity each and 46.2, 53.8, 53.8 or 53.8% sensitivity, respectively, when compared to fast response (P = 0.020, 0.021, 0.040 and 0.011, respectively). Discriminant analysis showed that the combined use of anti-Tpx IgG and anti-ESAT-6 IgA antibody titers before treatment predicted slow responders with 90.5% accuracy. These preliminary results suggest that combinations of serodiagnostic markers measured prior to initiation of treatment may be suitable for the prediction of early treatment response. This approach holds promise and requires further evaluation for its utility in the prediction of treatment failure and relapse, the evaluation of new TB therapeutics, as well as in the care of individual patients.

  9. The use of a sweetener substitution method to predict dietary exposures for the intense sweetener rebaudioside A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renwick, A G

    2008-07-01

    There are more published dietary exposure data for intense sweeteners than for any other group of food additives. Data are available for countries with different patterns of sweetener approvals and also for population groups with high potential intakes, such as children and diabetic subjects. These data provide a secure basis for predicting the potential intakes of a novel intense sweetener by adjustment of the reported intakes of different sweeteners in mg/kg body weight by their relative sweetness intensities. This approach allows the possibility that a novel sweetener attains the same pattern and extent of use as the existing sweeteners. The intakes by high consumers of other sweeteners allows for possible brand loyalty to the novel sweetener. Using this method, the estimated dietary exposures for rebaudioside A in average and high consumers are predicted to be 1.3 and 3.4mg/kg body weight per day for the general population, 2.1 and 5.0mg/kg body weight per day for children and 3.4 and 4.5mg/kg body weight per day for children with diabetes. The temporary ADI defined by the JECFA for steviol glycosides [JECFA, 2005. Steviol glycosides. In: 63rd Meeting of the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives. World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzerland, WHO Technical Report Series 928, pp. 34-39] was set at 0-2mg/kg body weight (expressed as steviol equivalents); after correction for the difference in molecular weights, these estimated intakes of rebaudioside A are equivalent to daily steviol intakes of less than 2mg/kg. In consequence, this analysis shows that the intakes of rebaudioside A would not exceed the JECFA temporary ADI set for steviol glycosides.

  10. Prediction of the Bandgap of a Core-Shell Microsphere via Light Intensity Fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moon Kyu Choi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available It has been experimentally observed that in the case of microspheres irradiated by light, the absorption wavelength shift occurs, known as the blueshift, with changing shell materials (i.e., by decreasing the refractive index of the shell. In the present investigation, we want to demonstrate it numerically by using the boundary element method. The material used for the simulation is a core-shell (SiO2 and another material of a larger refractive index microsphere and it is irradiated by unpolarized monochromatic light wave. This paper intends to demonstrate that it is possible to predict the bandgap of a core-shell microsphere resulting from two different bandgap materials and that the numerical simulation employed produces the blueshift.

  11. A Bayesian Approach for Parameter Estimation and Prediction using a Computationally Intensive Model

    CERN Document Server

    Higdon, Dave; Schunck, Nicolas; Sarich, Jason; Wild, Stefan M

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model $\\eta(\\theta)$ where $\\theta$ denotes the uncertain, best input setting. Hence the statistical model is of the form $y = \\eta(\\theta) + \\epsilon$, where $\\epsilon$ accounts for measurement, and possibly other error sources. When non-linearity is present in $\\eta(\\cdot)$, the resulting posterior distribution for the unknown parameters in the Bayesian formulation is typically complex and non-standard, requiring computationally demanding computational approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to produce multivariate draws from the posterior. While quite generally applicable, MCMC requires thousands, or even millions of evaluations of the physics model $\\eta(\\cdot)$. This is problematic if the model takes hours or days to evaluate. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we pr...

  12. Early changes of procalcitonin predict bacteremia in patients with intensive care unit-acquired new fever

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Yan; DU Bin; XU Ying-chun; RUI Xi; DU Wei; WANG Yao

    2013-01-01

    Background Rapid detection of bacteremia is important for critically ill patients.Procalcitonin (PCT) has emerged as a marker of sepsis,but its characterization for predicting bacteremia is still unclear.This study aimed to investigate the role of change of PCT within 6 to 12 hours after new fever in predicting bacteremia.Methods An observational study was conducted in the ICU of our hospital from January 2009 to March 2010.Adult patients with new fever were included and grouped as bacteremia and non bacteremia group.Serum PCT concentration was measured at admission and within 6 to12 hours after new fever (designated PCT0 and PCT1).Other results of laboratory tests and therapeutic interventions were recorded.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors of bacteremia.The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was constructed to evaluate the discriminative power of variables to predict bacteremia.Results Totally 106 patients were enrolled,60 of whom had bacteremia and 46 did not have bacteremia,.The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores were 13.1±7.8 and 5.0±2.2 at admission,respectively.There was no significant difference in PCT0 between the bacteremia group and nonbacteremia group; 1.27μg/L (range,0.10-33.3) vs.0.98μg/L (range,0.08-25.7),(P=-0.157).However,the PCT1 and the rate of change of PCT were significantly higher in bacteremia group; PCT1 was 6.73μg/L (1.13-120.10)vs.1.17μg/L (0.10-12.10) (P=0.001),and the rate of change was 5.62 times (1.05-120.6) vs.0.07 times (-0.03-0.18)(P<0.001).The area under the ROC curve (AUC; 95% confidence interval) of the rate of change of PCT was better for predicting bacteremia than that of PCT1; 0.864 (range,0.801-0.927) vs.0.715 (range,0.628-0.801),(P<0.05).The AUCs of PCT0 and other parameters (such as WBC count,granulocyte percentage and temperature) were not significantly different (all P>0

  13. Increased Accuracy in Statistical Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nateghi, R.; Quiring, S. M.; Guikema, S. D.

    2012-12-01

    Hurricanes are among the costliest and most destructive natural hazards in the U.S. Accurate hurricane forecasts are crucial to optimal preparedness and mitigation decisions in the U.S. where 50 percent of the population lives within 50 miles of the coast. We developed a flexible statistical approach to forecast annual number of hurricanes in the Atlantic region during the hurricane season. Our model is based on the method of Random Forest and captures the complex relationship between hurricane activity and climatic conditions through careful variable selection, model testing and validation. We used the National Hurricane Center's Best Track hurricane data from 1949-2011 and sixty-one candidate climate descriptors to develop our model. The model includes information prior to the hurricane season, i.e., from the last three months of the previous year (Oct. through Dec.) and the first five months of the current year (January through May). Our forecast errors are substantially lower than other leading forecasts such as that of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

  14. Gulf Coast Hurricanes Situation Report #39

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2005-11-09

    There are 49,300 customers without power in Florida as of 7:00 AM EST 11/9 due to Hurricane Wilma, down from a peak of about 3.6 million customers. Currently, less than 1 percent of the customers are without power in the state. This is the last report we will due on outages due to Hurricane Wilma.

  15. Satellite sar detection of hurricane helene (2006)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ju, Lian; Cheng, Yongcun; Xu, Qing;

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, the wind structure of hurricane Helene (2006) over the Atlantic Ocean is investigated from a C-band RADARSAT-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image acquired on 20 September 2006. First, the characteristics, e.g., the center, scale and area of the hurricane eye (HE) are determined...

  16. Quantifying And Predicting Wood Quality Of Loblolly And Slash Pine Under Intensive Forest Management Final Technical Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richard F. Daniels; Alexander Clark III

    2006-05-04

    The forest industry will increasingly rely on fast-growing intensively managed southern pine plantations to furnish wood and fiber. Intensive silvicultural practices, including competition control, stand density control, fertilization, and genetic improvement are yielding tremendous gains in the quantity of wood production from commercial forest land. How these technologies affect wood properties was heretofore unknown, although there is concern about the suitability of fast-grown wood for traditional forest products. A four year study was undertaken to examine the effects of these intensive practices on the properties of loblolly and slash pine wood by applying a common sampling method over 10 existing field experiments. Early weed control gets young pines off to a rapid start, often with dramatically increased growth rates. This response is all in juvenile wood however, which is low in density and strength. Similar results are found with early Nitrogen fertilization at the time of planting. These treatments increase the proportion of juvenile wood in the tree. Later, mid-rotation fertilization with Nitrogen and Phosphorus can have long term (4-8 year) growth gains. Slight reductions in wood density are short-lived (1-2 years) and occur while the tree is producing dense, stiff mature wood. Impacts of mid-rotation fertilization on wood properties for manufacturing are estimated to be minimal. Genetic differences are evident in wood density and other properties. Single family plantings showed somewhat more uniform properties than bulk improved or unimproved seedlots. Selection of genetic sources with optimal wood properties may counter some of the negative impacts of intensive weed control and fertilization. This work will allow forest managers to better predict the effects of their practices on the quality of their final product.

  17. Autonomic Function Predicts Fitness Response to Short-Term High-Intensity Interval Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiviniemi, A M; Tulppo, M P; Eskelinen, J J; Savolainen, A M; Kapanen, J; Heinonen, I H A; Hautala, A J; Hannukainen, J C; Kalliokoski, K K

    2015-11-01

    We tested the hypothesis that baseline cardiac autonomic function and its acute response to all-out interval exercise explains individual fitness responses to high-intensity interval training (HIT). Healthy middle-aged sedentary men performed HIT (n=12, 4-6×30 s of all-out cycling efforts with 4-min recovery) or aerobic training (AET, n=9, 40-60 min at 60% of peak workload in exercise test [Loadpeak]), comprising 6 sessions within 2 weeks. Low (LF) and high frequency (HF) power of R-R interval oscillation were analyzed from data recorded at supine and standing position (5+5 min) every morning during the intervention. A significant training effect (ptraining*group interaction, was observed in Loadpeak and peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak). Pre-training supine LF/HF ratio, an estimate of sympathovagal balance, correlated with training outcome in Loadpeak (Spearman's rho [rs]=-0.74, p=0.006) and VO2peak (rs=- 0.59, p=0.042) in the HIT but not the AET group. Also, the mean change in the standing LF/HF ratio in the morning after an acute HIT exercise during the 1(st) week of intervention correlated with training response in Loadpeak (rs=- 0.68, p=0.014) and VO2peak (rs=-0.60, p=0.039) with HIT but not with AET. In conclusion, pre-training cardiac sympathovagal balance and its initial alterations in response to acute HIT exercise were related to fitness responses to short-term HIT. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  18. Multivariate analysis of factors predicting prostate dose in intensity-modulated radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomita, Tsuneyuki; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro; Hirose, Yoshinori; Kitsuda, Kenji; Notogawa, Takuya; Miki, Katsuhito; Nakamura, Kiyonao; Ishigaki, Takashi

    2014-01-01

    We conducted a multivariate analysis to determine relationships between prostate radiation dose and the state of surrounding organs, including organ volumes and the internal angle of the levator ani muscle (LAM), based on cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) images after bone matching. We analyzed 270 CBCT data sets from 30 consecutive patients receiving intensity-modulated radiation therapy for prostate cancer. With patients in the supine position on a couch with the HipFix system, data for center of mass (COM) displacement of the prostate and the state of individual organs were acquired and compared between planning CT and CBCT scans. Dose distributions were then recalculated based on CBCT images. The relative effects of factors on the variance in COM, dose covering 95% of the prostate volume (D95%), and percentage of prostate volume covered by the 100% isodose line (V100%) were evaluated by a backward stepwise multiple regression analysis. COM displacement in the anterior-posterior direction (COMAP) correlated significantly with the rectum volume (δVr) and the internal LAM angle (δθ; R = 0.63). Weak correlations were seen for COM in the left-right (R = 0.18) and superior-inferior directions (R = 0.31). Strong correlations between COMAP and prostate D95% and V100% were observed (R ≥ 0.69). Additionally, the change ratios in δVr and δθ remained as predictors of prostate D95% and V100%. This study shows statistically that maintaining the same rectum volume and LAM state for both the planning CT simulation and treatment is important to ensure the correct prostate dose in the supine position with bone matching. Copyright © 2014 American Association of Medical Dosimetrists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Pulmonary embolism in intensive care unit: Predictive factors, clinical manifestations and outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahloul Mabrouk

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective : To determine predictive factors, clinical and demographics characteristics of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE in ICU, and to identify factors associated with poor outcome in the hospital and in the ICU. Methods : During a four-year prospective study, a medical committee of six ICU physicians prospectively examined all available data for each patient in order to classify patients according to the level of clinical suspicion of pulmonary thromboembolism. During the study periods, all patients admitted to our ICU were classified into four groups. The first group includes all patients with confirmed PE; the second group includes some patients without clinical manifestations of PE; the third group includes patients with suspected and not confirmed PE and the fourth group includes all patients with only deep vein thromboses (DVTs without suspicion of PE. The diagnosis of PE was confirmed either by a high-probability ventilation/perfusion (V/Q scan or by a spiral computed tomography (CT scan showing one or more filling defects in the pulmonary artery or in its branches. The diagnosis was also confirmed by echocardiography when a thrombus in the pulmonary artery was observed. Results : During the study periods, 4408 patients were admitted in our ICU. The diagnosis of PE was confirmed in 87 patients (1.9%. The mean delay of development of PE was 7.8 ± 9.5 days. On the day of PE diagnosis, clinical examination showed that 50 patients (57.5% were hypotensive, 63 (72.4% have SIRS, 15 (17.2% have clinical manifestations of DVT and 71 (81.6% have respiratory distress requiring mechanical ventilation. In our study, intravenous unfractionated heparin was used in 81 cases (93.1% and low molecular weight heparins were used in 4 cases (4.6%. The mean ICU stay was 20.2 ± 25.3 days and the mean hospital stay was 25.5 ± 25 days. The mortality rate in ICU was 47.1% and the in-hospital mortality rate was 52.9%. Multivariate analysis showed that

  20. Predictive value of T2 relative signal intensity for response to somatostatin analogs in newly diagnosed acromegaly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Ming; Zhang, Qilin [Fudan University, Department of Neurosurgery, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China); Shanghai Pituitary Tumor Center, Shanghai (China); Liu, Wenjuan; Li, Yiming; Zhang, Zhaoyun; Ye, Hongying; He, Min; Lu, Bin; Yang, Yeping [Shanghai Pituitary Tumor Center, Shanghai (China); Fudan University, Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China); Wang, Meng [Fudan University, Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China); Soochow University, Division of Endocrinology, the Second Affiliated Hospital, Suzhou (China); Zhu, Jingjing [Shanghai Pituitary Tumor Center, Shanghai (China); Fudan University, Department of Neuropathology, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China); Ma, Zengyi; He, Wenqiang; Li, Shiqi; Shou, Xuefei; Qiao, Nidan; Ye, Zhao; Zhang, Yichao; Zhao, Yao; Wang, Yongfei [Fudan University, Department of Neurosurgery, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China); Shanghai Pituitary Tumor Center, Shanghai (China); Yao, Zhenwei [Shanghai Pituitary Tumor Center, Shanghai (China); Fudan University, Department of Radiology, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China); Lu, Yun [Fudan University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Huashan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai (China)

    2016-11-15

    The difficulty of predicting the efficacy of somatostatin analogs (SSA) is not fully resolved. Here, we quantitatively evaluated the predictive value of relative signal intensity (rSI) on T1- and T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the short-term efficacy (3 months) of SSA therapy in patients with active acromegaly and assessed the correlation between MRI rSI and expression of somatostatin receptors (SSTR). This was a retrospective review of prospectively recorded data. Ninety-two newly diagnosed patients (37 males and 55 females) with active acromegaly were recruited. All patients were treated with pre-surgical SSA, followed by reassessment and transspenoidal surgery. rSI values were generated by calculating the ratio of SI in the tumor to the SI of normal frontal white matter. The Youden indices were calculated to determine the optimal cutoff of rSI to determine the efficacy of SSA. The correlation between rSI and expression of SSTR2/5 was analyzed by the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. T2 rSI was strongly correlated with biochemical sensitivity to SSA. The cutoff value of T2 rSI to distinguish biochemical sensitivity was 1.205, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 81.5 % and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 77.3 %. No correlation was found between MRI and tumor size sensitivity. Moreover, T2 rSI was negatively correlated with the expression of SSTR5. T2 rSI correlates with the expression of SSTR5 and quantitatively predicts the biochemical efficacy of SSA in acromegaly. (orig.)

  1. Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike waves, forerunner, and storm surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hope, M.E.; Westerink, J.J.; Kennedy, A.B.; Kerr, P.C.; Dietrich, J.C.; Dawson, C.; Bender, C.J.; Smith, J.M.; Jensen, R.E.; Zijlema, M.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Luettich, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Cardone, V.J.; Cox, A.T.; Pourtaheri, H.; Roberts, H.J.; Atkinson, J.H.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, H.J.; Westerink, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana-Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied w

  2. Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike waves, forerunner, and storm surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hope, M.E.; Westerink, J.J.; Kennedy, A.B.; Kerr, P.C.; Dietrich, J.C.; Dawson, C.; Bender, C.J.; Smith, J.M.; Jensen, R.E.; Zijlema, M.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Luettich, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Cardone, V.J.; Cox, A.T.; Pourtaheri, H.; Roberts, H.J.; Atkinson, J.H.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, H.J.; Westerink, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana-Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied w

  3. Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike waves, forerunner, and storm surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hope, M.E.; Westerink, J.J.; Kennedy, A.B.; Kerr, P.C.; Dietrich, J.C.; Dawson, C.; Bender, C.J.; Smith, J.M.; Jensen, R.E.; Zijlema, M.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Luettich, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Cardone, V.J.; Cox, A.T.; Pourtaheri, H.; Roberts, H.J.; Atkinson, J.H.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, H.J.; Westerink, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana-Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied

  4. An artificial intelligence tool to predict fluid requirement in the intensive care unit: a proof-of-concept study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celi, Leo Anthony; Hinske, L Christian; Alterovitz, Gil; Szolovits, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Introduction The goal of personalised medicine in the intensive care unit (ICU) is to predict which diagnostic tests, monitoring interventions and treatments translate to improved outcomes given the variation between patients. Unfortunately, processes such as gene transcription and drug metabolism are dynamic in the critically ill; that is, information obtained during static non-diseased conditions may have limited applicability. We propose an alternative way of personalising medicine in the ICU on a real-time basis using information derived from the application of artificial intelligence on a high-resolution database. Calculation of maintenance fluid requirement at the height of systemic inflammatory response was selected to investigate the feasibility of this approach. Methods The Multi-parameter Intelligent Monitoring for Intensive Care II (MIMIC II) is a database of patients admitted to the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center ICU in Boston. Patients who were on vasopressors for more than six hours during the first 24 hours of admission were identified from the database. Demographic and physiological variables that might affect fluid requirement or reflect the intravascular volume during the first 24 hours in the ICU were extracted from the database. The outcome to be predicted is the total amount of fluid given during the second 24 hours in the ICU, including all the fluid boluses administered. Results We represented the variables by learning a Bayesian network from the underlying data. Using 10-fold cross-validation repeated 100 times, the accuracy of the model in predicting the outcome is 77.8%. The network generated has a threshold Bayes factor of seven representing the posterior probability of the model given the observed data. This Bayes factor translates into p < 0.05 assuming a Gaussian distribution of the variables. Conclusions Based on the model, the probability that a patient would require a certain range of fluid on day two can be predicted. In the

  5. An artificial intelligence tool to predict fluid requirement in the intensive care unit: a proof-of-concept study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celi, Leo Anthony; Hinske, L Christian; Alterovitz, Gil; Szolovits, Peter

    2008-01-01

    The goal of personalised medicine in the intensive care unit (ICU) is to predict which diagnostic tests, monitoring interventions and treatments translate to improved outcomes given the variation between patients. Unfortunately, processes such as gene transcription and drug metabolism are dynamic in the critically ill; that is, information obtained during static non-diseased conditions may have limited applicability. We propose an alternative way of personalising medicine in the ICU on a real-time basis using information derived from the application of artificial intelligence on a high-resolution database. Calculation of maintenance fluid requirement at the height of systemic inflammatory response was selected to investigate the feasibility of this approach. The Multi-parameter Intelligent Monitoring for Intensive Care II (MIMIC II) is a database of patients admitted to the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center ICU in Boston. Patients who were on vasopressors for more than six hours during the first 24 hours of admission were identified from the database. Demographic and physiological variables that might affect fluid requirement or reflect the intravascular volume during the first 24 hours in the ICU were extracted from the database. The outcome to be predicted is the total amount of fluid given during the second 24 hours in the ICU, including all the fluid boluses administered. We represented the variables by learning a Bayesian network from the underlying data. Using 10-fold cross-validation repeated 100 times, the accuracy of the model in predicting the outcome is 77.8%. The network generated has a threshold Bayes factor of seven representing the posterior probability of the model given the observed data. This Bayes factor translates into p < 0.05 assuming a Gaussian distribution of the variables. Based on the model, the probability that a patient would require a certain range of fluid on day two can be predicted. In the presence of a larger database, analysis

  6. Hurricane Katrina deaths, Louisiana, 2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunkard, Joan; Namulanda, Gonza; Ratard, Raoult

    2008-12-01

    Hurricane Katrina struck the US Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005, causing unprecedented damage to numerous communities in Louisiana and Mississippi. Our objectives were to verify, document, and characterize Katrina-related mortality in Louisiana and help identify strategies to reduce mortality in future disasters. We assessed Hurricane Katrina mortality data sources received in 2007, including Louisiana and out-of-state death certificates for deaths occurring from August 27 to October 31, 2005, and the Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Team's confirmed victims' database. We calculated age-, race-, and sex-specific mortality rates for Orleans, St Bernard, and Jefferson Parishes, where 95% of Katrina victims resided and conducted stratified analyses by parish of residence to compare differences between observed proportions of victim demographic characteristics and expected values based on 2000 US Census data, using Pearson chi square and Fisher exact tests. We identified 971 Katrina-related deaths in Louisiana and 15 deaths among Katrina evacuees in other states. Drowning (40%), injury and trauma (25%), and heart conditions (11%) were the major causes of death among Louisiana victims. Forty-nine percent of victims were people 75 years old and older. Fifty-three percent of victims were men; 51% were black; and 42% were white. In Orleans Parish, the mortality rate among blacks was 1.7 to 4 times higher than that among whites for all people 18 years old and older. People 75 years old and older were significantly more likely to be storm victims (P Hurricane Katrina was the deadliest hurricane to strike the US Gulf Coast since 1928. Drowning was the major cause of death and people 75 years old and older were the most affected population cohort. Future disaster preparedness efforts must focus on evacuating and caring for vulnerable populations, including those in hospitals, long-term care facilities, and personal residences. Improving mortality reporting timeliness will

  7. A LEPS approach to the predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterranean basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Federico

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates a method for best member selection of a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS with the goal to increase quantitative precipitation forecast. A case study that occurred between 22-24 May 2002 over Calabria, southern Italy, is discussed.

    Mediterranean storms often develop under upper level disturbances which are usually associated with high values of potential vorticity. Anomalously high values of potential vorticity can be identified by the METEOSAT water vapor channel centered around 6.3 μm because they are associated with dark band on the METEOSAT image. This signature offers a chance to identify the upper level disturbance that can be exploited in data void countries as Calabria.

    The working hypothesis is that the uncertainty in the representation of the upper-level disturbance has a major impact on the precipitation forecast. This issue is utilized in an ensemble forecast where member forecasts are compatible with the analysis and forecast errors. These members are grouped in five clusters by a hierarchical clustering technique which utilizes the height of the dynamical tropopause to compute distances between members. Therefore the members of a cluster have a similar representation of the upper level disturbance. For each cluster a representative member is selected and its pseudo water vapor image is compared with the corresponding METEOSAT 7 water vapor image at a specific time, antecedent to the rain occurrence over Calabria. The subjective evaluation of the comparison allows to gain physical insight in the storm evolution and to select representative members which are more in agreement with the METEOSAT image.

    Results, even if for a case study, show the feasibility of the methodology that, if confirmed by further investigations, could be valuable in data void countries as the central Mediterranean basin.

  8. Prediction of rainfall intensity measurement errors using commercial microwave communication links

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Zinevich

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Commercial microwave radio links forming cellular communication networks are known to be a valuable instrument for measuring near-surface rainfall. However, operational communication links are more uncertain relatively to the dedicated installations since their geometry and frequencies are optimized for high communication performance rather than observing rainfall. Quantification of the uncertainties for measurements that are non-optimal in the first place is essential to assure usability of the data.

    In this work we address modeling of instrumental impairments, i.e. signal variability due to antenna wetting, baseline attenuation uncertainty and digital quantization, as well as environmental ones, i.e. variability of drop size distribution along a link affecting accuracy of path-averaged rainfall measurement and spatial variability of rainfall in the link's neighborhood affecting the accuracy of rainfall estimation out of the link path. Expressions for root mean squared error (RMSE for estimates of path-averaged and point rainfall have been derived. To verify the RMSE expressions quantitatively, path-averaged measurements from 21 operational communication links in 12 different locations have been compared to records of five nearby rain gauges over three rainstorm events.

    The experiments show that the prediction accuracy is above 90% for temporal accumulation less than 30 min and lowers for longer accumulation intervals. Spatial variability in the vicinity of the link, baseline attenuation uncertainty and, possibly, suboptimality of wet antenna attenuation model are the major sources of link-gauge discrepancies. In addition, the dependence of the optimal coefficients of a conventional wet antenna attenuation model on spatial rainfall variability and, accordingly, link length has been shown.

    The expressions for RMSE of the path-averaged rainfall estimates can be useful for integration of measurements from multiple

  9. Disaster prevention design criteria for the estuarine cities:New Orleans and Shanghai The lesson from Hurricane Katrina

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Defu; SHI Hongda; PANG Liang

    2006-01-01

    The accurate prediction of the typhoon (hurricane) induced extreme sea environments is very important for the coastal structure design in areas influenced by typhoon (hurricane). In 2005 Hurricane Katrina brought a severe catastrophe in New Orleans by combined effects of hurricane induced extreme sea environments and upper flood of the Mississippi River. Like the New Orleans City, Shanghai is located at the estuarine area of the Changjiang River and the combined effect of typhoon induced extreme sea environments, flood peak runoff from the Changjiang River coupled with the spring tide is the dominate factor for disaster prevention design criteria. The Poisson-nested logistic trivariate compound extreme value distribution (PNLTCEVD) is a new type of joint probability model which is proposed by compounding a discrete distribution (typhoon occurring frequency) into a continuous multivariate joint distribution (typhoon induced extreme events). The new model gives more reasonable predicted results for New Orleans and Shanghai disaster prevention design criteria.

  10. Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Banglin; Lindzen, Richard S.; Tallapragada, Vijay; Weng, Fuzhong; Liu, Qingfu; Sippel, Jason A.; Ma, Zaizhong; Bender, Morris A.

    2016-10-01

    The atmosphere-ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels.

  11. Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Banglin; Lindzen, Richard S; Tallapragada, Vijay; Weng, Fuzhong; Liu, Qingfu; Sippel, Jason A; Ma, Zaizhong; Bender, Morris A

    2016-10-18

    The atmosphere-ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels.

  12. Observing Natural Hazards: Tsunami, Hurricane, and El Niño Observations from the NDBC Ocean Observing System of Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neil, K.; Bouchard, R.; Burnett, W. H.; Aldrich, C.

    2009-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) operates and maintains the NDBC Ocean Observing Systems of Systems (NOOSS), comprised of 3 networks that provide critical information before and during and after extreme hazards events, such as tsunamis, hurricanes, and El Niños. While each system has its own mission, they have in common the requirement to remain on station in remote areas of the ocean to provide reliable and accurate observations. After the 2004 Sumatran Tsunami, NOAA expanded its network of tsunameters from six in the Pacific Ocean to a vast network of 39 stations providing information to Tsunami Warning Centers to enable faster and more accurate tsunami warnings for coastal communities in the Pacific, Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. The tsunameter measurements are used to detect the amplitude and period of the tsunamis, and the data can be assimilated into models for the prediction and impact of the tsunamis to coastal communities. The network has been used for the detection of tsunamis generated by earthquakes, including the 2006 and 2007 Kuril Islands, 2007 Peru, and Solomon Islands, and most recently for the 2009 Dusky Sound, New Zealand earthquake. In August 2009, the NOAA adjusted its 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlooks from above normal to near or below normal activity, primarily due to a strengthening El Niño. A key component in the detection of that El Niño was the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO) operated by NDBC. TAO provides real-time data for improved detection, understanding, and prediction of El Niño and La Niña. The 55-buoy TAO array spans the central and eastern equatorial Pacific providing real-time and post-deployment recovery data to support climate analysis and forecasts. Although, in this case, the El Niño benefits the tropical Atlantic, the alternate manifestation, La Niña typically enhances hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The various phases of

  13. Gaussian and Lognormal Models of Hurricane Gust Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merceret, Frank

    2009-01-01

    A document describes a tool that predicts the likelihood of land-falling tropical storms and hurricanes exceeding specified peak speeds, given the mean wind speed at various heights of up to 500 feet (150 meters) above ground level. Empirical models to calculate mean and standard deviation of the gust factor as a function of height and mean wind speed were developed in Excel based on data from previous hurricanes. Separate models were developed for Gaussian and offset lognormal distributions for the gust factor. Rather than forecasting a single, specific peak wind speed, this tool provides a probability of exceeding a specified value. This probability is provided as a function of height, allowing it to be applied at a height appropriate for tall structures. The user inputs the mean wind speed, height, and operational threshold. The tool produces the probability from each model that the given threshold will be exceeded. This application does have its limits. They were tested only in tropical storm conditions associated with the periphery of hurricanes. Winds of similar speed produced by non-tropical system may have different turbulence dynamics and stability, which may change those winds statistical characteristics. These models were developed along the Central Florida seacoast, and their results may not accurately extrapolate to inland areas, or even to coastal sites that are different from those used to build the models. Although this tool cannot be generalized for use in different environments, its methodology could be applied to those locations to develop a similar tool tuned to local conditions.

  14. An Examination of Hurricane Emergency Preparedness Planning at Institutions of Higher Learning of the Gulf South Region Post Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura, Caterina Gulli

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine hurricane emergency preparedness planning at institutions of higher learning of the Gulf South region following Hurricane Katrina. The problem addressed the impact of Hurricane Katrina on decision-making and policy planning processes. The focus was on individuals that administer the hurricane emergency…

  15. An Examination of Hurricane Emergency Preparedness Planning at Institutions of Higher Learning of the Gulf South Region Post Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura, Caterina Gulli

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine hurricane emergency preparedness planning at institutions of higher learning of the Gulf South region following Hurricane Katrina. The problem addressed the impact of Hurricane Katrina on decision-making and policy planning processes. The focus was on individuals that administer the hurricane emergency…

  16. 78 FR 31614 - Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-24

    ....221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION... guidance regarding the application of Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.221, ``Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane... ML13015A688 Interim Staff Guidance-024 on Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis...

  17. Predicting outcome of rethoracotomy for suspected pericardial tamponade following cardio-thoracic surgery in the intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beishuizen Albertus

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objectives Pericardial tamponade after cardiac surgery is difficult to diagnose, thereby rendering timing of rethoracotomy hard. We aimed at identifying factors predicting the outcome of surgery for suspected tamponade after cardio-thoracic surgery, in the intensive care unit (ICU. Methods Twenty-one consecutive patients undergoing rethoracotomy for suspected pericardial tamponade in the ICU, admitted after primary cardio-thoracic surgery, were identified for this retrospective study. We compared patients with or without a decrease in severe haemodynamic compromise after rethoracotomy, according to the cardiovascular component of the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA score. Results A favourable haemodynamic response to rethoracotomy was observed in 11 (52% of patients and characterized by an increase in cardiac output, and less fluid and norepinephrine requirements. Prior to surgery, the absence of treatment by heparin, a minimum cardiac index 2 and a positive fluid balance (> 4,683 mL were predictive of a beneficial haemodynamic response. During surgery, the evacuation of clots and > 500 mL of pericardial fluid was associated with a beneficial haemodynamic response. Echocardiographic parameters were of limited help in predicting the postoperative course, even though 9 of 13 pericardial clots found at surgery were detected preoperatively. Conclusion Clots and fluids in the pericardial space causing regional tamponade and responding to surgical evacuation after primary cardio-thoracic surgery, are difficult to diagnose preoperatively, by clinical, haemodynamic and even echocardiographic evaluation in the ICU. Only absence of heparin treatment, a large positive fluid balance and low cardiac index predicted a favourable haemodynamic response to rethoracotomy. These data might help in deciding and timing of reinterventions after primary cardio-thoracic surgery.

  18. Predicting outcome of rethoracotomy for suspected pericardial tamponade following cardio-thoracic surgery in the intensive care unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Objectives Pericardial tamponade after cardiac surgery is difficult to diagnose, thereby rendering timing of rethoracotomy hard. We aimed at identifying factors predicting the outcome of surgery for suspected tamponade after cardio-thoracic surgery, in the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods Twenty-one consecutive patients undergoing rethoracotomy for suspected pericardial tamponade in the ICU, admitted after primary cardio-thoracic surgery, were identified for this retrospective study. We compared patients with or without a decrease in severe haemodynamic compromise after rethoracotomy, according to the cardiovascular component of the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score. Results A favourable haemodynamic response to rethoracotomy was observed in 11 (52%) of patients and characterized by an increase in cardiac output, and less fluid and norepinephrine requirements. Prior to surgery, the absence of treatment by heparin, a minimum cardiac index 4,683 mL) were predictive of a beneficial haemodynamic response. During surgery, the evacuation of clots and > 500 mL of pericardial fluid was associated with a beneficial haemodynamic response. Echocardiographic parameters were of limited help in predicting the postoperative course, even though 9 of 13 pericardial clots found at surgery were detected preoperatively. Conclusion Clots and fluids in the pericardial space causing regional tamponade and responding to surgical evacuation after primary cardio-thoracic surgery, are difficult to diagnose preoperatively, by clinical, haemodynamic and even echocardiographic evaluation in the ICU. Only absence of heparin treatment, a large positive fluid balance and low cardiac index predicted a favourable haemodynamic response to rethoracotomy. These data might help in deciding and timing of reinterventions after primary cardio-thoracic surgery. PMID:21624108

  19. Hurricanes vs. Humans: Their Comparative Long-Term Effects on Tropical Landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lugo, A. E.

    2002-12-01

    Puerto Rico experiences about 50 hurricanes per century. These large-scale events last for hours, but have significant short, medium, and long-term effects on vegetation and landscape processes as shown in studies in the Long-Term Ecological Research program. Forest canopy characteristics, tree mortality rates, life history characteristics of both plants and animals, successional rates, landslide occurrence, and sediment erosion and transport are examples of ecological and landscape attributes that exhibit strong responses to hurricane frequency and intensity. However, Puerto Rico has also undergone dramatic land cover change due to human activity. The island as a whole has experienced a cycle of deforestation, agricultural use, land abandonment, forest recovery, and urbanization. These anthropogenic events leave a long-term legacy on both individual ecosystems and the landscape as a whole. Species composition, structure, and age of forests are significantly influenced by human activity, as are rates of sediment erosion and transport, and frequency and size of landslides. I will present comparative data on the effects of hurricanes and human activity on Puerto Rico's forests and landscape. I address the following questions: which of these two forces that jointly shape the island's biota and landscape has a greater influence on functioning at the ecosystem level and what are the management implications? It appears that human impact on sediment erosion and transport events is greater than that of hurricanes and that humans change species composition of forests more than do hurricanes. However, regardless of the nature of the new ecosystems formed due to human activity, these systems must cope with the forces (rain and winds) of hurricanes in order to persist on the landscape. Regardless of the power of hurricanes, they don't appear to reset the human legacy on the island's landscape.

  20. A high resolution study of a hurricane storm surge and inundation in Veracruz, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz García, Ovel; Zavala Hidalgo, Jorge; Douillet, Pascal

    2014-05-01

    Veracruz is the most populated city along the Mexican shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and also is the country's largest commercial port. In recent years the city has been affected by hurricanes of medium intensity that have provoked human casualties, property damaged and economic loss. Two of the most recent events were hurricane Karl (2010), which caused a storm surge and severe flooding, and hurricane Ernesto (2012). The purpose of this work is to study, based on high-resolution numerical simulations, scenarios of storm surge flooding using state-of-the-art open source numerical models: the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF), and the coupled models ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) for weather and storm surge hindcast, respectively. We also use topography high resolution data from LIDAR and bathymetry from GEBCO 30", the Mexican Navy and nautical charts from Electrical Federal Commission. We present the validation of the models evaluating several statistical parameters against measurements from Acoustic Data Current Profilers, pressure sensors, tide gauge and meteorological stations for these events. In the case of hurricane Karl, it made landfall 15 km north of Veracruz City, reducing the maximum surge along the city shoreline. The hurricane Ernesto made landfall 200 km southeast of the city, too far to have a significant impact. We did some numerical experiments slightly changing the trajectory, reported by the best track data, for these two hurricanes with the purpose of evaluating storm surge scenarios. The results shows that the worst storm surge cases were when the tracks of this hurricanes made landfall south of the city in the range of 30 to 60 km.

  1. Improvement of a clinical prediction rule for clinical trials on prophylaxis for invasive candidiasis in the intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostrosky-Zeichner, Luis; Pappas, Peter G; Shoham, Shmuel; Reboli, Annette; Barron, Michelle A; Sims, Charles; Wood, Craig; Sobel, Jack D

    2011-01-01

    We created a clinical prediction rule to identify patients at risk of invasive candidiasis (IC) in the intensive care unit (ICU) (Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis 2007; 26:271). The rule applies to <10% of patients in ICUs. We sought to create a more inclusive rule for clinical trials. Retrospective review of patients admitted to ICU ≥ 4 days, collecting risk factors and outcomes. Variations of the rule based on introduction of mechanical ventilation and risk factors were assessed. We reviewed 597 patients with a mean APACHE II score of 14.4, mean ICU stay of 12.5 days and mean ventilation time of 10.7 days. A variation of the rule requiring mechanical ventilation AND central venous catheter AND broad spectrum antibiotics on days 1-3 AND an additional risk factor applied to 18% of patients, maintaining the incidence of IC at 10%. Modification of our original rule resulted in a more inclusive rule for studies.

  2. Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn A.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

    2017-02-01

    Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach where results are often only applicable to the specific region where data were collected. Here, we present a new, fully predictive approach that utilizes rainfall, hydrologic response, and readily available geospatial data to predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned locations in the western United States. Unlike the traditional approach to defining regional thresholds from historical data, the proposed methodology permits the direct calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for areas where no such data exist. The thresholds calculated by this method are demonstrated to provide predictions that are of similar accuracy, and in some cases outperform, previously published regional intensity-duration thresholds. The method also provides improved predictions of debris-flow likelihood, which can be incorporated into existing approaches for post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment. Our results also provide guidance for the operational expansion of post-fire debris-flow early warning systems in areas where empirically defined regional rainfall intensity-duration thresholds do not currently exist.

  3. Hurricane Katrina and perinatal health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harville, Emily W; Xiong, Xu; Buekens, Pierre

    2009-12-01

    We review the literature on the effects of Hurricane Katrina on perinatal health, and providing data from our own research on pregnant and postpartum women. After Katrina, obstetric, prenatal, and neonatal care was compromised in the short term, but increases in adverse birth outcomes such as preterm birth, low birthweight, and maternal complications were mostly limited to highly exposed women. Both pregnant and postpartum women had rates of post-traumatic stress disorder similar to, or lower than, others exposed to Katrina, and rates of depression similar to other pregnant and postpartum populations. Health behaviors, such as smoking and breastfeeding, may have been somewhat negatively affected by the disaster, whereas effects on nutrition were likely associated with limited time, money, and food choices, and indicated by both weight gain and loss. We conclude that, with a few specific exceptions, postdisaster concerns and health outcomes for pregnant and postpartum women were similar to those of other people exposed to Hurricane Katrina. In such situations, disaster planners and researchers should focus on providing care and support for the normal concerns of the peripartum period, such as breastfeeding, depression, and smoking cessation. Contraception needs to be available for those who do not want to become pregnant. Although additional physical and mental health care needs to be provided for the most severely exposed women and their babies, many women are capable of surviving and thriving in postdisaster environments.

  4. Dual-Polarization, Multi-Frequency Antenna Array for use with Hurricane Imaging Radiometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, John

    2013-01-01

    Advancements in common aperture antenna technology were employed to utilize its proprietary genetic algorithmbased modeling tools in an effort to develop, build, and test a dual-polarization array for Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) applications. Final program results demonstrate the ability to achieve a lightweight, thin, higher-gain aperture that covers the desired spectral band. NASA employs various passive microwave and millimeter-wave instruments, such as spectral radiometers, for a range of remote sensing applications, from measurements of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, to cosmic background emission. These instruments such as the HIRAD, SFMR (Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer), and LRR (Lightweight Rainfall Radiometer), provide unique data accumulation capabilities for observing sea surface wind, temperature, and rainfall, and significantly enhance the understanding and predictability of hurricane intensity. These microwave instruments require extremely efficient wideband or multiband antennas in order to conserve space on the airborne platform. In addition, the thickness and weight of the antenna arrays is of paramount importance in reducing platform drag, permitting greater time on station. Current sensors are often heavy, single- polarization, or limited in frequency coverage. The ideal wideband antenna will have reduced size, weight, and profile (a conformal construct) without sacrificing optimum performance. The technology applied to this new HIRAD array will allow NASA, NOAA, and other users to gather information related to hurricanes and other tropical storms more cost effectively without sacrificing sensor performance or the aircraft time on station. The results of the initial analysis and numerical design indicated strong potential for an antenna array that would satisfy all of the design requirements for a replacement HIRAD array. Multiple common aperture antenna methodologies were employed to achieve exceptional gain over the entire

  5. National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards--Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Thompson, David M.; Sopkin, Kristin L.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Sallenger, Asbury H.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy beaches provide a natural barrier between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During a hurricane, these changes can be large and sometimes catastrophic. High waves and storm surge act together to erode beaches and inundate low-lying lands, putting inland communities at risk. A decade of USGS research on storm-driven coastal change hazards has provided the data and modeling capabilities to identify areas of our coastline that are likely to experience extreme and potentially hazardous erosion during a hurricane. This report defines hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards for sandy beaches along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastline. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respond to the direct landfall of category 1-5 hurricanes. Hurricane-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change: collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation. As new beach morphology observations and storm predictions become available, this analysis will be updated to describe how coastal vulnerability to storms will vary in the future.

  6. Sensitivity of Hurricane Storm Surge to Land Cover and Topography Under Various Sea Level Rise Scenarios Along the Mississippi Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclone conditions. Literature suggests with 'very high confidence that global sea level will rise at least 0.2 m and no more than 2.0 m by 2011' (Donoghue, 2011; Parris et al., 2012). Further, it is recognized that the Mississippi barrier islands are highly susceptible to a westward migration and retreating shoreline. With predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms, rising sea levels, and a changing landscape, it is important to understand how these changes may affect inundation extent and flooding due to hurricane storm surge. A state-of-the-art SWAN+ADCIRC hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past (1960) and future (2050) sea level changes were simulated. In addition to altering the initial sea state, land use land cover (LULC) was modified for 1960 and 2050 based on historic data and future projections. LULC datasets are used to derive surface roughness characteristics, such as Manning's n, and wind reduction factors. The topography along the barrier islands and near the Pascagoula River, MS was also altered to reflect the 1960 landscape. Storm surge sensitivity to topographic change were addressed by comparing model results between two 1960 storm surge simulations; one with current topography and a second with changes to the barrier islands. In addition, model responses to changes in LULC are compared. The results will be used to gain insight into adapting present day storm surge models for future conditions. References Donoghue, J. (2011). Sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and sea level rise scenarios for the near future. Climatic Change, 107

  7. Improved understanding of near-ground winds in hurricanes and tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karstens, Christopher Daniel

    Hurricanes and tornadoes contain the most destructive and life threatening winds on the planet. Combined, they are responsible for approximately $11 billion in damage in the U.S. annually. To compose a set of effective mitigation techniques, a comprehensive understanding of hurricane and tornado winds is needed. However, our understanding of these winds in the lowest 30 meters AGL, particularly their interaction with complex terrain, is lacking. This thesis includes two studies that address this issue. In the first study, a representative wind profile extracted from WRF simulations of hurricanes is used to initialize CFD modeled flow interaction with built structures using Fluent. The magnitude of structurally-induced modifications to the wind profile is presented. In the second study, recent tornado pressure and wind measurements are compared to laboratory and numerical simulations of tornado-like vortices. In addition, a comparative range of minimum pressures from a wide variety of tornadoes with different size and intensities is presented.

  8. Evidence for delayed mortality in hurricane-damaged Jamaican staghorn corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowlton, Nancy; Lang, Judith C.; Christine Rooney, M.; Clifford, Patricia

    1981-11-01

    Severe tropical storms can cause widespread mortality in reef corals1,2. The Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis, although dependent on fragmentation for asexual propagation3-5, is particularly vulnerable to hurricane damage6,7. The most important agents of post-hurricane mortality are assumed to be high wave energy6 and change in salinity8, factors which typically soon diminish in intensity. We report here that there was substantial delayed tissue and colony death in A. cervicornis on a Jamaican reef damaged by Hurricane Alien. This previously undocumented degree of secondary mortality, sustained for 5 months and unrelated to emersion9, was over one order of magnitude more severe than that caused by the immediate effects of the storm. The elimination of >98% of the original survivors suggests potentially complex responses to catastrophes, involving disease10,11 and predation, which may explain the widely variable rates of reef recovery previously reported12-15.

  9. Linkage of Rainfall-Runoff and Hurricane Storm Surge in Galveston Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deitz, R.; Christian, J.; Wright, G.; Fang, N.; Bedient, P.

    2012-12-01

    In conjunction with the SSPEED Center, large rainfall events in the upper Gulf of Mexico are being studied in an effort to help design a surge gate to protect the Houston Ship Channel during hurricane events. The ship channel is the world's second largest petrochemical complex and the Coast Guard estimates that a one-month closure would have a $60 billion dollar impact on the national economy. In this effort, statistical design storms, such as the 24-hour PMP, as well as historical storms, like Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Katrina, and Hurricane Rita, are being simulated in a hydrologic/hydraulic model using radar and rain gauge data. VfloTM, a distributed hydrologic model, is being used to quantify the effect that storm size, intensity, and location has on timing and peak flows in the in the upper drainage area. These hydrographs were input to a hydraulic model with various storm surges from Galveston Bay. Results indicate that there is a double peak phenomenon with flows from the west draining days earlier than flows from the north. With storm surge typically lasting 36-48 hours, this indicates the flows from the west are interacting with the storm surge, whereas flows from the north would arrive once the storm surge is receding. Gate operations were optimized in the model to account for the relative timing of upland runoff and hurricane surge, and to quantify the capability of the gate structure to protect the Ship Channel industry.

  10. Frequent Disasters in Mexico: hurricanes Pauline and Manuel in Acapulco, Guerrero

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Manuel Rodríguez Esteves

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Hurricanes and other tropical storms are natural phenomena that attract the interest of people all over the world, especially when they affect coastal communities. Each year, especially during the hurricane season, it is common to read or see in the different media damage caused by tropical storms in several countries, especially in Latin America and Asia. In Mexico total economic losses associated with natural phenomena has been increasing. During the year 2000 were allocated 230 million US dollars for the reconstruction of the infrastructure affected by hydrometeorological phenomena, while in 2013 damage amounted to $ 4,476 million, peaking during 2010 were recorded when 7,208 million dollars in losses. On the other hand, the total of damage caused by natural phenomena, 92 % were associated with hydrometeorological phenomena, which include hurricanes and other phenomena (SEGOB, 2014. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impacts caused by disasters associated with the influence of hurricanes from a comparative perspective between two phenomena in particular, hurricane Pauline in 1997 and Manuel storm in 2013 events hydrometeorological which affected the Mexican state of Guerrero, but especially to the port of Acapulco. one of the main conclusions of this study refers to that no matter only the intensity of the natural phenomenon to generate damage on society, but the total of damages also refers to the contexts of vulnerability generated by a society with the course of the years.

  11. Multicenter retrospective development and validation of a clinical prediction rule for nosocomial invasive candidiasis in the intensive care setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostrosky-Zeichner, L; Sable, C; Sobel, J; Alexander, B D; Donowitz, G; Kan, V; Kauffman, C A; Kett, D; Larsen, R A; Morrison, V; Nucci, M; Pappas, P G; Bradley, M E; Major, S; Zimmer, L; Wallace, D; Dismukes, W E; Rex, J H

    2007-04-01

    The study presented here was performed in order to create a rule that identifies subjects at high risk for invasive candidiasis in the intensive care setting. Retrospective review and statistical modelling were carried out on 2,890 patients who stayed at least 4 days in nine hospitals in the USA and Brazil; the overall incidence of invasive candidiasis in this group was 3% (88 cases). The best performing rule was as follows: Any systemic antibiotic (days 1-3) OR presence of a central venous catheter (days 1-3) AND at least TWO of the following-total parenteral nutrition (days 1-3), any dialysis (days 1-3), any major surgery (days -7-0), pancreatitis (days -7-0), any use of steroids (days -7-3), or use of other immunosuppressive agents (days -7-0). The rate of invasive candidiasis among patients meeting the rule was 9.9%, capturing 34% of cases in the units, with the following performance: relative risk 4.36, sensitivity 0.34, specificity 0.90, positive predictive value 0.01, and negative predictive value 0.97. The rule may identify patients at high risk of invasive candidiasis.

  12. Predictive validity and reliability of the Braden scale for risk assessment of pressure ulcers in an intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima-Serrano, M; González-Méndez, M I; Martín-Castaño, C; Alonso-Araujo, I; Lima-Rodríguez, J S

    2017-02-15

    Contribution to validation of the Braden scale in patients admitted to the ICU, based on an analysis of its reliability and predictive validity. An analytical, observational, longitudinal prospective study was carried out. Intensive Care Unit, Hospital Virgen del Rocío, Seville (Spain). Patients aged 18years or older and admitted for over 24hours to the ICU were included. Patients with pressure ulcers upon admission were excluded. A total of 335 patients were enrolled in two study periods of one month each. None. The presence of gradei-iv pressure ulcers was regarded as the main or dependent variable. Three categories were considered (demographic, clinical and prognostic) for the remaining variables. The incidence of patients who developed pressure ulcers was 8.1%. The proportion of gradei andii pressure ulcer was 40.6% and 59.4% respectively, highlighting the sacrum as the most frequently affected location. Cronbach's alpha coefficient in the assessments considered indicated good to moderate reliability. In the three evaluations made, a cutoff point of 12 was presented as optimal in the assessment of the first and second days of admission. In relation to the assessment of the day with minimum score, the optimal cutoff point was 10. The Braden scale shows insufficient predictive validity and poor precision for cutoff points of both 18 and 16, which are those accepted in the different clinical scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

  13. Prototype of an Integrated Hurricane Information System for Research: Design and Implementation of the Database and Web Portal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, P. P.; Knosp, B.; Vu, Q. A.; Hristova-Veleva, S.; Chao, Y.; Vane, D.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Su, H.; Dang, V.; Fovell, R.; Willis, J.; Tanelli, S.; Fishbein, E.; Ao, C. O.; Poulsen, W. L.; Park, K. J.; Fetzer, E.; Vazquez, J.; Callahan, P. S.; Marcus, S.; Garay, M.; Kahn, R.; Haddad, Z.

    2007-12-01

    Many hurricane websites provide historical hurricane information and real-time storm tracking. These sites often include images from various remote-sensing satellite sensors with such atmospheric and oceanic quantities as wind, temperature, rain, and water vapor. However, it has been determined that the hurricane analysis community is lacking a web portal that provides researchers a comprehensive set of observed hurricane parameters (both graphics and data) together with large-scale and convection-resolving model output. We have developed a prototype of an integrated hurricane information system of high-resolution satellite and in- situ observations along with model outputs pertaining to: i) the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of storms; ii) the air-sea interaction processes; iii) the larger-scale environment as depicted by quantities such as SST, ocean heat content and the aerosol loading of the environment. Our goal is to provide a one-stop place to access all the available information of a specific hurricane for researchers to advance the understanding, modeling and predication of hurricane genesis and intensity changes. Our hurricane information system prototype consists of high-resolution satellite data measuring three- dimensional atmospheric and oceanic parameters that includes observations from AIRS, MISR, MODIS, CloudSAT, AMSR-E, TRMM, GOES, MLS, QuikSCAT, SeaWiFS, and COSMIC GPS, in-situ observations such as ARGO floats, large scale data assimilation products from NCEP, and high resolution hurricane model output from WRF. High-resolution satellite data are sub-setted within 2000-kilometer-square area centered at the closest storm location and large-scale environmental datasets are divided into 6 predefined geographical regions. When accessing this hurricane portal, users may browse through data by year, region, category, and hurricane. At the front page, we show the hurricane track using Google Map. Users may pan and zoom, or click on the track

  14. Impact of dust aerosols on Hurricane Helene's early development through the deliquescent heterogeneous freezing mode

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Zhang

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available An ice nucleation parameterization accounting for the deliquescent heterogeneous freezing (DHF mode was implemented into the Weather Research Forecast (WRF model. The DHF mode refers to the freezing process for internally mixed aerosols with soluble and insoluble species that can serve as both cloud condensation nuclei (CCN and ice nuclei (IN, such as dust. A modified version of WRF was used to examine the effect of Saharan dust on the early development of Hurricane Helene (2006 via acting as CCN and IN. The WRF simulations showed the tendency of DHF mode to promote ice formation at lower altitudes in strong updraft cores, increase the local latent heat release, and produce more low clouds and less high clouds. The inclusion of dust acting as CCN and IN through the DHF mode modified the storm intensity, track, hydrometeor distribution, cloud top temperature (hence the storm radiative energy budget, and precipitation and latent heat distribution. However, changes in storm intensity, latent heating rate, and total precipitation exhibit nonlinear dependence on the dust concentration. Improvement in the representation of atmospheric aerosols and cloud microphysics has the potential to contribute to better prediction of tropical cyclone development.

  15. Predictive value of SAPS II and APACHE II scoring systems for patient outcome in a medical intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amina Godinjak

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim is to determine SAPS II and APACHE II scores in medical intensive care unit (MICU patients, to compare them for prediction of patient outcome, and to compare with actual hospital mortality rates for different subgroups of patients. Methods. One hundred and seventy-four patients were included in this analysis over a oneyear period in the MICU, Clinical Center, University of Sarajevo. The following patient data were obtained: demographics, admission diagnosis, SAPS II, APACHE II scores and final outcome. Results. Out of 174 patients, 70 patients (40.2% died. Mean SAPS II and APACHE II scores in all patients were 48.4±17.0 and 21.6±10.3 respectively, and they were significantly different between survivors and non-survivors. SAPS II >50.5 and APACHE II >27.5 can predict the risk of mortality in these patients. There was no statistically significant difference in the clinical values of SAPS II vs APACHE II (p=0.501. A statistically significant positive correlation was established between the values of SAPS II and APACHE II (r=0.708; p=0.001. Patients with an admission diagnosis of sepsis/septic shock had the highest values of both SAPS II and APACHE II scores, and also the highest hospital mortality rate of 55.1%. Conclusion. Both APACHE II and SAPS II had an excellent ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors. There was no significant difference in the clinical values of SAPS II and APACHE II. A positive correlation was established between them. Sepsis/septic shock patients had the highest predicted and observed hospital mortality rate.

  16. Estimation of Phytoplankton Responses to Hurricane Gonu over the Arabian Sea Based on Ocean Color Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Zhao

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study the authors investigated phytoplankton variations in the Arabian Sea associated with Hurricane Gonu using remote-sensing data of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a, sea surface temperature (SST and winds. Additional data sets used for the study included the hurricane and Conductivity-Temperature-Depth data. Hurricane Gonu, presenting extremely powerful wind intensity, originated over the central Arabian Sea (near 67.7ºE, 15.1ºN on June 2, 2007; it traveled along a northwestward direction and made landfall in Iran around June 7. Before Hurricane Gonu, Chl-a data indicated relatively low phytoplankton biomass (0.05-0.2 mg m-3, along with generally high SST (>28.5 ºC and weak wind (<10 m s-1 in the Arabian Sea. Shortly after Gonu’s passage, two phytoplankton blooms were observed northeast of Oman (Chl-a of 3.5 mg m-3 and in the eastern central Arabian Sea (Chl-a of 0.4 mg m-3, with up to 10-fold increase in surface Chl-a concentrations, respectively. The Chl-a in the two post-hurricane blooms were 46% and 42% larger than those in June of other years, respectively. The two blooms may be attributed to the storm-induced nutrient uptake, since hurricane can influence intensively both dynamical and biological processes through vertical mixing and Ekman Pumping.

  17. Past, Present, and Future Sea Level Change Assessments of Storm Surge: A Case Study Using Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclonic conditions. Further, it is generally agreed that global sea levels due to climate change will rise anywhere from 18 to 100 cm by the year 2100 (Donoghue, 2011, IPCC, 2007) with some projecting even higher. Further, it is recognized that coastal Mississippi is highly susceptible to a retreating shoreline from sea level rise coupled with predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms from an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (Trenberth, 2005, Webster, et al., 2005). A fully-validated, state-of-the-art ADCIRC+UnSWAN hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past and future sea level changes were simulated. A regression was performed at local tide gauges to estimate past and project future sea levels. Also, surface roughness (i.e. Manning's n and wind reduction factors) was adjusted to reflect past landcover conditions as well as estimate future landcover change. Here, past, present and future sea level scenarios are modeled using a dynamic approach, along with Hurricane Katrina, and compared to present dynamic responses to sea level rise. The dynamic results will be compared and contrasted with a simpler bathtub model (static) approach. It will be demonstrated that water levels do not change linearly with modeled sea level cases (i.e. a 50 cm rise in sea level will not result in an additional 50 cm of water level at a given location) and are highly variable to changes in local conditions (e.g. topography, bathymetry, and surface roughness). Further, nearshore wind-wave conditions are affected by changes in local sea level due to the changes in momentum transfer from the

  18. Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... spawn tornadoes and lead to flooding. The high winds and heavy rains can destroy buildings, roads and bridges, and knock down power lines and trees. In coastal areas, very high tides called storm ...

  19. Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Awareness Human Trafficking Awareness Month Holiday Stress Homeless Youth Awareness Month Bullying Prevention Domestic Violence Awareness Month Suicide Prevention Month/World Suicide Day Sept. 11th National ...

  20. Hurricane Katrina - Murphy Oil Spill Boundary

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  1. Hurricane Sandy science plan: New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransom, Clarice N.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. More than one-half of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of a coast, and this number is increasing. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is one of the largest providers of geologic and hydrologic information in the world. Federal, State, and local partners depend on the USGS science to know how to prepare for hurricane hazards and reduce losses from future hurricanes. The USGS works closely with other bureaus within the Department of the Interior, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Environmental Protection Agency, and many State and local agencies to identify their information needs before, during, and after hurricanes.

  2. Evacuation Shelters - MDC_HurricaneShelter

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — A label feature class of Miami-Dade County Hurricane Evacuation Shelters (HEC) including Special Need Evacuation Centers (SNEC) and Medical Management Facilities...

  3. Final Gulf Coast Hurricanes Situation Report #46

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2006-01-26

    According to Entergy New Orleans, electricity has been restored to the vast majority of residents and businesses in the city, except in a few isolated areas that sustained severe devastation from Hurricane Katrina.

  4. Hurricane Irene Poster (August 27, 2011)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Irene poster. Color composite GOES image shows Irene moving through the North Carolina Outer Banks on August 27, 2011. Poster size is 36"x27"

  5. Hurricane Katrina - Murphy Oil Spill Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked with FEMA and state and local agencies to respond to the emergencies throughout the Gulf.

  6. Hurricane Matthew Takes Aim At Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... plan for adequate supplies in case you lose power and water for several days and you are not able to leave due to flooding or blocked roads. Hurricane winds can cause trees and branches to fall, so trim or remove ...

  7. Evacuation Shelters - MDC_HurricaneShelter

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — A label feature class of Miami-Dade County Hurricane Evacuation Shelters (HEC) including Special Need Evacuation Centers (SNEC) and Medical Management Facilities...

  8. Satellite sar detection of hurricane helene (2006)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ju, Lian; Cheng, Yongcun; Xu, Qing

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, the wind structure of hurricane Helene (2006) over the Atlantic Ocean is investigated from a C-band RADARSAT-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image acquired on 20 September 2006. First, the characteristics, e.g., the center, scale and area of the hurricane eye (HE) are determined....... There is a good agreement between the SAR-estimated HE center location and the best track data from the National Hurricane Center. The wind speeds at 10 m above the ocean surface are also retrieved from the SAR data using the geophysical model function (GMF), CMOD5, and compared with in situ wind speed...... observations from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) on NOAA P3 aircraft. All the results show the capability of hurricane monitoring by satellite SAR. Copyright © 2013 by the International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE)....

  9. Development of AN Intensity Based Fiber Optic Sensor and Predictive Models for in Situ Void Detection during Polymer Composite Cure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klosterman, Donald A.

    The use of an optic fiber as an in situ sensor for void detection in polymer composites has been investigated. The sensor is prepared from standard multimode optic fiber by removing a 1-cm length of coating and cladding to expose the core. The sensor was designed to detect entrapped bubbles of water and solvents produced during a cure cycle, or interlaminar pockets of air that have been trapped during the layup process. The sensor signal is the total transmitted light intensity through the optic fiber and is affected by the refractive index of the resin and the amount of voids that contact the exposed core. The measured void content corresponds to the fractional area of the exposed core covered with voids. A mathematical model was developed to predict the sensor signal given the inputs of resin refractive index and void content. Experiments were performed in neat resin to verify the model. Initially, the model was tuned to changes in the resin refractive index by heating in a noncuring resin with a void content of zero. Tuning was accomplished by adjusting the distribution of power among optical modes, an internal model parameter. The tuned model was then verified for the condition of a changing void content and constant refractive index. An experiment with neat resin and water droplets was used to verify the model for simultaneous changes in resin refractive index and void content. It was determined that the sensor signal is affected by the overall void content; the model was used to predict that the signal varies only 1% for different void distributions of the same overall void content. The sensor signal was collected for the void-free cure of neat Hercules 3501-6 epoxy resin. To verify the model for the cure of 3501-6 resin, it was necessary to measure the resin refractive index as a function of temperature and degree of cure. Two methods were used to obtain this calibration: ellipsometry and a direct method using the sensor model and acquired sensor signal. The

  10. Development of a mortality prediction formula due to sepsis/severe sepsis in a medical intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anant Mohan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Although sepsis is one of the leading causes of mortality in hospitalized patients, information regarding early predictive factors for mortality and morbidity is limited. Materials and Methods: Patients fulfilling the Infectious Disease Society of America criteria of sepsis within the medical intensive care unit (ICU were included over two years. Apart from baseline hematological, biochemical, and metabolic parameters, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and III (SAPS II and SAPS III, and Sequential Organ Function Assessment (SOFA scores were calculated on day 1 of admission. Patients were followed till death or discharge from the ICU. Results: One hundred patients were enrolled over two years (54% males. The overall mortality was 53%, (69.5% in females, 38.8% in males (P < 0.01. Mortality was 65.7%, 55.7%, and 33.3% in patients with septic shock, severe sepsis, and sepsis, respectively. Patients who died were significantly older than the survivors (mean age, 57.37 ± 20.42 years and 44.29 ± 15.53 years respectively, P < 0.01. Nonsurvivors were significantly more anemic and had higher APACHE II, SAPS II, SAPS III, and SOFA scores. The presence of acute respiratory distress syndrome and renal dysfunction were associated with higher mortality (75% and 70.2%, respectively. There was no significant difference in the duration of mechanical ventilation or ICU stay between survivors and nonsurvivors. On multivariate analysis, significant predictors of mortality with odds ratio greater than 2 included the presence of anemia, SAPS II score greater than 35, SAPS III score greater than 47, and SOFA score greater than 6 at day 1 of admission. Conclusion: Several demographic and laboratory parameters as well as composite critical illness scoring systems are reliable early predictors of mortality in sepsis. A sepsis mortality prediction formula (AIIMS Sepsis Score based on SAPS II

  11. A comparative analysis of predictive models of morbidity in intensive care unit after cardiac surgery – Part I: model planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biagioli Bonizella

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Different methods have recently been proposed for predicting morbidity in intensive care units (ICU. The aim of the present study was to critically review a number of approaches for developing models capable of estimating the probability of morbidity in ICU after heart surgery. The study is divided into two parts. In this first part, popular models used to estimate the probability of class membership are grouped into distinct categories according to their underlying mathematical principles. Modelling techniques and intrinsic strengths and weaknesses of each model are analysed and discussed from a theoretical point of view, in consideration of clinical applications. Methods Models based on Bayes rule, k-nearest neighbour algorithm, logistic regression, scoring systems and artificial neural networks are investigated. Key issues for model design are described. The mathematical treatment of some aspects of model structure is also included for readers interested in developing models, though a full understanding of mathematical relationships is not necessary if the reader is only interested in perceiving the practical meaning of model assumptions, weaknesses and strengths from a user point of view. Results Scoring systems are very attractive due to their simplicity of use, although this may undermine their predictive capacity. Logistic regression models are trustworthy tools, although they suffer from the principal limitations of most regression procedures. Bayesian models seem to be a good compromise between complexity and predictive performance, but model recalibration is generally necessary. k-nearest neighbour may be a valid non parametric technique, though computational cost and the need for large data storage are major weaknesses of this approach. Artificial neural networks have intrinsic advantages with respect to common statistical models, though the training process may be problematical. Conclusion Knowledge of model

  12. The Moderating Effects of Maternal Psychopathology on Children's Adjustment Post-Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spell, Annie W.; Kelley, Mary Lou; Wang, Jing; Self-Brown, Shannon; Davidson, Karen L.; Pellegrin, Angie; Palcic, Jeannette L.; Meyer, Kara; Paasch, Valerie; Baumeister, Audrey

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated the role of maternal psychopathology in predicting children's psychological distress in a disaster-exposed sample. Participants consisted of 260 children (ages 8-16) recruited from public schools and their mothers. These families were displaced from New Orleans because of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Assessment took place 3…

  13. Dependency of U.S. Hurricane Economic Loss on Maximum Wind Speed and Storm Size

    CERN Document Server

    Zhai, Alice R

    2014-01-01

    Many empirical hurricane economic loss models consider only wind speed and neglect storm size. These models may be inadequate in accurately predicting the losses of super-sized storms, such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012. In this study, we examined the dependencies of normalized U.S. hurricane loss on both wind speed and storm size for 73 tropical cyclones that made landfall in the U.S. from 1988 to 2012. A multi-variate least squares regression is used to construct a hurricane loss model using both wind speed and size as predictors. Using maximum wind speed and size together captures more variance of losses than using wind speed or size alone. It is found that normalized hurricane loss (L) approximately follows a power law relation with maximum wind speed (Vmax) and size (R). Assuming L=10^c Vmax^a R^b, c being a scaling factor, the coefficients, a and b, generally range between 4-12 and 2-4, respectively. Both a and b tend to increase with stronger wind speed. For large losses, a weighted regression model, with...

  14. Hurricanes and coral bleaching linked to changes in coral recruitment in Tobago.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallela, J; Crabbe, M J C

    2009-10-01

    Knowledge of coral recruitment patterns helps us understand how reefs react following major disturbances and provides us with an early warning system for predicting future reef health problems. We have reconstructed and interpreted historical and modern-day recruitment patterns, using a combination of growth modelling and in situ recruitment experiments, in order to understand how hurricanes, storms and bleaching events have influenced coral recruitment on the Caribbean coastline of Tobago. Whilst Tobago does not lie within the main hurricane belt results indicate that regional hurricane events negatively impact coral recruitment patterns in the Southern Caribbean. In years following hurricanes, tropical storms and bleaching events, coral recruitment was reduced when compared to normal years (p=0.016). Following Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and the 2005-2006 bleaching event, coral recruitment was markedly limited with only 2% (n=6) of colonies estimated to have recruited during 2006 and 2007. Our experimental results indicate that despite multiple large-scale disturbances corals are still recruiting on Tobago's marginal reef systems, albeit in low numbers.

  15. Posttraumatic stress and posttraumatic growth among low-income mothers who survived Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Sarah R; Manove, Emily E; Rhodes, Jean E

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of the study was to explore the relationship between posttraumatic stress (PTS) and posttraumatic growth (PTG) after Hurricane Katrina, and the role of demographics, predisaster psychological distress, hurricane-related stressors, and psychological resources (optimism and purpose) in predicting each. Participants were 334 low-income mothers (82.0% non-Hispanic Black) living in the New Orleans area prior to Hurricane Katrina, who completed surveys in the year prior to the hurricane (T1 [Time 1]) and 1 and 3 years thereafter (T2 and T3). Higher T2 and T3 PTS full-scale and symptom cluster subscales (Intrusion, Avoidance, and Hyperarousal) were significantly associated with higher T3 PTG, and participants who surpassed the clinical cutoff for probable posttraumatic stress disorder at both T2 and T3 had significantly higher PTG than those who never surpassed the clinical cutoff. Older and non-Hispanic Black participants, as well as those who experienced a greater number of hurricane-related stressors and bereavement, reported significantly greater T3 PTS and PTG. Participants with lower T2 optimism reported significantly greater T3 intrusive symptoms, whereas those with higher T1 and T2 purpose reported significantly greater T3 PTG. Based on the results, we suggest practices and policies with which to identify disaster survivors at greater risk for PTS, as well as longitudinal investigations of reciprocal and mediational relationships between psychological resources, PTS, and PTG. (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  16. The role of parental perceptions of tic frequency and intensity in predicting tic-related functional impairment in youth with chronic tic disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espil, Flint M; Capriotti, Matthew R; Conelea, Christine A; Woods, Douglas W

    2014-12-01

    Tic severity is composed of several dimensions. Tic frequency and intensity are two such dimensions, but little empirical data exist regarding their relative contributions to functional impairment in those with chronic tic disorders (CTD). The present study examined the relative contributions of these dimensions in predicting tic-related impairment across several psychosocial domains. Using data collected from parents of youth with CTD, multivariate regression analyses revealed that both tic frequency and intensity predicted tic-related impairment in several areas; including family and peer relationships, school interference, and social endeavors, even when controlling for the presence of comorbid anxiety symptoms and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder diagnostic status. Results showed that tic intensity predicted more variance across more domains than tic frequency.

  17. Land Use Adaptation to Climate Change: Economic Damages from Land-Falling Hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf States of the USA, 1900–2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asim Zia

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change, especially the phenomena of global warming, is expected to increase the intensity of land-falling hurricanes. Societal adaptation is needed to reduce vulnerability from increasingly intense hurricanes. This study quantifies the adaptation effects of potentially policy driven caps on housing densities and agricultural cover in coastal (and adjacent inland areas vulnerable to hurricane damages in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal regions of the U.S. Time series regressions, especially Prais-Winston and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA models, are estimated to forecast the economic impacts of hurricanes of varying intensity, given that various patterns of land use emerge in the Atlantic and Gulf coastal states of the U.S. The Prais-Winston and ARMA models use observed time series data from 1900 to 2005 for inflation adjusted hurricane damages and socio-economic and land-use data in the coastal or inland regions where hurricanes caused those damages. The results from this study provide evidence that increases in housing density and agricultural cover cause significant rise in the de-trended inflation-adjusted damages. Further, higher intensity and frequency of land-falling hurricanes also significantly increase the economic damages. The evidence from this study implies that a medium to long term land use adaptation in the form of capping housing density and agricultural cover in the coastal (and adjacent inland states can significantly reduce economic damages from intense hurricanes. Future studies must compare the benefits of such land use adaptation policies against the costs of development controls implied in housing density caps and agricultural land cover reductions.

  18. A prospective study of religiousness and psychological distress among female survivors of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Christian S; Rhodes, Jean E; Pérez, John E

    2012-03-01

    This prospective study examined the pathways by which religious involvement affected the post-disaster psychological functioning of women who survived Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The participants were 386 low-income, predominantly Black, single mothers. The women were enrolled in the study before the hurricane, providing a rare opportunity to document changes in mental health from before to after the storm, and to assess the protective role of religious involvement over time. Results of structural equation modeling indicated that, controlling for level of exposure to the hurricanes, pre-disaster physical health, age, and number of children, pre-disaster religiousness predicted higher levels of post-disaster (1) social resources and (2) optimism and sense of purpose. The latter, but not the former, was associated with better post-disaster psychological outcome. Mediation analysis confirmed the mediating role of optimism and sense of purpose.

  19. Assessment of pipeline stability in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricanes using dynamic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinghui Tian

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Pipelines are the critical link between major offshore oil and gas developments and the mainland. Any inadequate on-bottom stability design could result in disruption and failure, having a devastating impact on the economy and environment. Predicting the stability behavior of offshore pipelines in hurricanes is therefore vital to the assessment of both new design and existing assets. The Gulf of Mexico has a very dense network of pipeline systems constructed on the seabed. During the last two decades, the Gulf of Mexico has experienced a series of strong hurricanes, which have destroyed, disrupted and destabilized many pipelines. This paper first reviews some of these engineering cases. Following that, three case studies are retrospectively simulated using an in-house developed program. The study utilizes the offshore pipeline and hurricane details to conduct a Dynamic Lateral Stability analysis, with the results providing evidence as to the accuracy of the modeling techniques developed.

  20. Use of ultrasonic back-reflection intensity for predicting the onset of crack growth due to low-cycle fatigue in stainless steel under block loading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Md Nurul; Arai, Yoshio; Araki, Wakako

    2015-02-01

    The present study proposes the use of ultrasonic back-reflected waves for evaluating low cycle fatigue crack growth from persistent slip bands (PSBs) of stainless steel under block loading. Fatigue under high-low block loading changes the back-reflected intensity of the ultrasonic wave that emanates from the surface. Measuring the change in ultrasonic intensity can predict the start of crack growth with reasonable accuracy. The present study also proposes a modified constant cumulative plastic strain method and a PSB damage evolution model to predict the onset of crack growth under block loads.

  1. Admission cell free DNA levels predict 28-day mortality in patients with severe sepsis in intensive care.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avital Avriel

    Full Text Available The aim of the current study is to assess the mortality prediction accuracy of circulating cell-free DNA (CFD level at admission measured by a new simplified method.CFD levels were measured by a direct fluorescence assay in severe sepsis patients on intensive care unit (ICU admission. In-hospital and/or twenty eight day all-cause mortality was the primary outcome.Out of 108 patients with median APACHE II of 20, 32.4% have died in hospital/or at 28-day. CFD levels were higher in decedents: median 3469.0 vs. 1659 ng/ml, p<0.001. In multivariable model APACHE II score and CFD (quartiles were significantly associated with the mortality: odds ratio of 1.05, p = 0.049 and 2.57, p<0.001 per quartile respectively. C-statistics for the models was 0.79 for CFD and 0.68 for APACHE II. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI analyses showed that CFD and CFD+APACHE II score models had better discriminatory ability than APACHE II score alone.CFD level assessed by a new, simple fluorometric-assay is an accurate predictor of acute mortality among ICU patients with severe sepsis. Comparison of CFD to APACHE II score and Procalcitonin (PCT, suggests that CFD has the potential to improve clinical decision making.

  2. Prediction of radiographic progression in synovitis-positive joints on maximum intensity projection of magnetic resonance imaging in rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akai, Takanori; Taniguchi, Daigo; Oda, Ryo; Asada, Maki; Toyama, Shogo; Tokunaga, Daisaku; Seno, Takahiro; Kawahito, Yutaka; Fujii, Yosuke; Ito, Hirotoshi; Fujiwara, Hiroyoshi; Kubo, Toshikazu

    2016-04-01

    Contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging with maximum intensity projection (MRI-MIP) is an easy, useful imaging method to evaluate synovitis in rheumatoid hands. However, the prognosis of synovitis-positive joints on MRI-MIP has not been clarified. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between synovitis visualized by MRI-MIP and joint destruction on X-rays in rheumatoid hands. The wrists, metacarpophalangeal (MP) joints, and proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joints of both hands (500 joints in total) were evaluated in 25 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Synovitis was scored from grade 0 to 2 on the MRI-MIP images. The Sharp/van der Heijde score and Larsen grade were used for radiographic evaluation. The relationships between the MIP score and the progression of radiographic scores and between the MIP score and bone marrow edema on MRI were analyzed using the trend test. As the MIP score increased, the Sharp/van der Heijde score and Larsen grade progressed severely. The rate of bone marrow edema-positive joints also increased with higher MIP scores. MRI-MIP imaging of RA hands is a clinically useful method that allows semi-quantitative evaluation of synovitis with ease and can be used to predict joint destruction.

  3. Hurricane Katrina-related maternal stress, maternal mental health, and early infant temperament.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tees, Michael T; Harville, Emily W; Xiong, Xu; Buekens, Pierre; Pridjian, Gabriella; Elkind-Hirsch, Karen

    2010-07-01

    To investigate temperament in infants whose mothers were exposed to Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath, and to determine if high hurricane exposure is associated with difficult infant temperament. A prospective cohort study of women giving birth in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, LA (n = 288) in 2006-2007 was conducted. Questionnaires and interviews assessed the mother's experiences during the hurricane, living conditions, and psychological symptoms, 2 months and 12 months postpartum. Infant temperament characteristics were reported by the mother using the activity, adaptability, approach, intensity, and mood scales of the Early Infant and Toddler Temperament Questionnaires, and "difficult temperament" was defined as scoring in the top quartile for three or more of the scales. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between hurricane experience, mental health, and infant temperament. Serious experiences of the hurricane did not strongly increase the risk of difficult infant temperament (association with three or more serious experiences of the hurricane: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-3.58 at 2 months; 0.58, 0.15-2.28 at 12 months). Maternal mental health was associated with report of difficult infant temperament, with women more likely to report having a difficult infant temperament at 1 year if they had screened positive for PTSD (aOR 1.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-5.41), depression, (aOR 3.16, 95% CI 1.22-8.20) or hostility (aOR 2.17, 95% CI 0.81-5.82) at 2 months. Large associations between maternal stress due to a natural disaster and infant temperament were not seen, but maternal mental health was associated with reporting difficult temperament. Further research is needed to determine the effects of maternal exposure to disasters on child temperament, but in order to help babies born in the aftermath of disaster, the focus may need to be on the mother's mental health.

  4. Predictive factors for successful clinical outcome 1 year after an intensive combined physical and psychological programme for chronic low back pain

    OpenAIRE

    van Hooff, Miranda L; Spruit, Maarten; O’Dowd, John K.; van Lankveld, Wim; Fairbank, Jeremy C.T.; Van Limbeek, Jacques

    2013-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this longitudinal study is to determine the factors which predict a successful 1-year outcome from an intensive combined physical and psychological (CPP) programme in chronic low back pain (CLBP) patients. Methods A prospective cohort of 524 selected consecutive CLBP patients was followed. Potential predictive factors included demographic characteristics, disability, pain and cognitive behavioural factors as measured at pre-treatment assessment. The primary outcome measure ...

  5. Impact of the hurricanes Gustav and Ike in the karst areas of the Vi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farfàn Gonzalez, H.; Corvea Porras, J. L.; Martinez Maquiera, Y.; Diaz Guanche, C.; Aldana Vilas, C.; de Bustamante, I.; Parise, M.

    2009-04-01

    Among the many natural hazards affecting the island of Cuba, the hydro-meteorological hazards include extreme rainstorms, tropical cyclones and hurricanes. At Cuba, as in the rest of the Caribbean Islands, the cyclonic period generally starts at the beginning of June and ends in late November; during this time period, hurricanes represent the most powerful expression of the tropical cyclones. As shown by historical data, the effects of hurricanes interest the whole island, with a particular focus at its western regions. Intensity of these events causes severe damage to the environment and the society. Hurricanes are classified into five categories according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, essentially on the basis of the velocity reached by the winds. In this scale, category I is the less intense, and V the highest. In 2008, two strong hurricanes affected the province of Pinar del Rio, in western Cuba, during August and September, with a 10-days interval between the two events. Many effects were produced by the passage of the hurricanes, especially in the karst areas of the Viñales National Park. The first hurricane (named Gustavo) was registered on August 30, 2008. Classified as category IV, it hit the area with wind velocities over 250 km/h, gusts over 300 km/h, and a total rainfall of approximately 100 mm. The hurricane affected the southern slope of the area of mogotes, that is the isolated cone or tower left by intense development of karst processes in tropical climate conditions. The vegetation cover was strongly hit, and largely stripped away, thus exposing several situations of hazards in karst that were previously undetected. Local flooding was also recorded, generally in the lowest topographic areas, and with short duration, due to bedrock characteristics. Ten days after Gustavo, the second hurricane (named Ike) affected the whole Cuba on September 9, 2008. Even though classified as category I, it caused severe damage to the man-made environment

  6. The intensity of 18FDG uptake does not predict tumor growth in patients with metastatic differentiated thyroid cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terroir, Marie; Dercle, Laurent; Lumbroso, Jean; Baudin, Eric; Berdelou, Amandine; Deandreis, Desiree; Schlumberger, Martin; Leboulleux, Sophie [Gustave Roussy and Universite Paris Saclay, Department of Nuclear Medicine and Endocrine Oncology, Villejuif (France); Borget, Isabelle [University Paris Sud, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Gustave Roussy, Villejuif (France); Bidault, Francois [Gustave Roussy, Department of Radiology, Villejuif (France); Ricard, Marcel [Gustave Roussy, Department of Physic, Villejuif (France); Deschamps, Frederic; Tselikas, Lambros [Department of Interventional Radiology, Villejuif (France); Hartl, Dana [Gustave Roussy, Department of Surgery, Villejuif (France)

    2017-04-15

    In patients with metastatic differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC), fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake as well as age, tumor size and radioactive iodine (RAI) uptake are prognostic factors for survival. High FDG uptake is a poor prognostic factor and lesions with high FDG uptake are often considered aggressive, but the predictive value of FDG uptake for morphological progression is unknown. The principal aim of this retrospective single center study was to determine whether the intensity of FDG uptake was correlated on a per lesion analysis with tumor growth rate (TGR) expressed as the percentage of increase in tumor size during 1 year (1-year TGR). Fifty five patients with DTC were included between July 2012 and May 2014 with the following criteria: (i) at least one distant metastasis measuring ≥ 1 cm in diameter on CT scan (ii) evaluation by FDG-positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) performed at our center (iii) at least one CT or another FDG-PET/CT performed 3 to 12 months after the reference FDG-PET/CT in the absence of systemic or local treatment between the two imaging procedures. One hundred and fifty-six metastatic lesions located in lungs (63), neck lymph nodes (28), chest lymph nodes (42), bone (11), liver (2) and other sites (12) were studied. The median size was 16 mm, median SUVmax/lesion: 8.7; median metabolic tumor volume/lesion (Metab.TV/lesion): 3.7 cm{sup 3}. The median 1-year TGR was 40.68 %. SUVmax and Metab.TV/lesion were not correlated to their 1-year TGR (p = 0.38 and p = 0.74 respectively). Among single patients with multiple lesions, the lesions with the highest SUVmax/lesion or the highest Metab.TV/lesion did not disclose the higher 1-year TGR. The intensity of FDG uptake on a per lesion analysis is not correlated to its 1-year TGR and cannot be used as a surrogate marker of tumour progression. (orig.)

  7. 2005 Significant U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Significant U.S. Hurricane Strikes poster is one of two special edition posters for the Atlantic Hurricanes. This beautiful poster contains two sets of...

  8. Tracks of Major Hurricanes of the Western Hemisphere

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This 36"x24" National Hurricane Center poster depicts the complete tracks of all major hurricanes in the north Atlantic and eastern north Pacific basins since as...

  9. Continental United States Hurricane Strikes 1950-2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...

  10. Role of Principal Component Analysis in Predicting Toxicity in Prostate Cancer Patients Treated With Hypofractionated Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesprini, Danny [Department of Radiation Oncology, Sunnybrook Odette Cancer Center, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, University Health Network, and Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Sia, Michael [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, University Health Network, and Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Lockwood, Gina [Department of Clinical Study Co-ordination and Biostatistics, Princess Margaret Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Moseley, Douglas; Rosewall, Tara; Bayley, Andrew; Bristow, Robert; Chung, Peter; Menard, Cynthia; Milosevic, Michael; Warde, Padraig [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, University Health Network, and Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Catton, Charles, E-mail: charles.catton@rmp.uhn.on.ca [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, University Health Network, and Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: To determine if principal component analysis (PCA) and standard parameters of rectal and bladder wall dose-volume histograms (DVHs) of prostate cancer patients treated with hypofractionated image-guided intensity-modulated radiotherapy (hypo-IMRT) can predict acute and late gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity. Methods and Materials: One hundred twenty-one patients underwent hypo-IMRT at 3 Gy/fraction, 5 days/week to either 60 Gy or 66 Gy, with daily online image guidance. Acute and late GI and genitourinary (GU) toxicity were recorded weekly during treatment and at each follow-up. All Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) criteria toxicity scores were dichotomized as <2 and {>=}2. Standard dosimetric parameters and the first five to six principal components (PCs) of bladder and rectal wall DVHs were tested for association with the dichotomized toxicity outcomes, using logistic regression. Results: Median follow-up of all patients was 47 months (60 Gy cohort= 52 months; 66 Gy cohort= 31 months). The incidence rates of {>=}2 acute GI and GU toxicity were 14% and 29%, respectively, with no Grade {>=}3 acute GU toxicity. Late GI and GU toxicity scores {>=}2 were 16% and 15%, respectively. There was a significant difference in late GI toxicity {>=}2 when comparing the 66 Gy to the 60 Gy cohort (38% vs. 8%, respectively, p = 0.0003). The first PC of the rectal DVH was associated with late GI toxicity (odds ratio [OR], 6.91; p < 0.001), though it was not significantly stronger than standard DVH parameters such as Dmax (OR, 6.9; p < 0.001) or percentage of the organ receiving a 50% dose (V50) (OR, 5.95; p = 0 .001). Conclusions: Hypofractionated treatment with 60 Gy in 3 Gy fractions is well tolerated. There is a steep dose response curve between 60 Gy and 66 Gy for RTOG Grade {>=}2 GI effects with the dose constraints employed. Although PCA can predict late GI toxicity for patients treated with hypo-IMRT for prostate cancer, it provides no additional information

  11. Predicting dynamic range and intensity discrimination for electrical pulse-train stimuli using a stochastic auditory nerve model: the effects of stimulus noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yifang; Collins, Leslie M

    2005-06-01

    This work investigates dynamic range and intensity discrimination for electrical pulse-train stimuli that are modulated by noise using a stochastic auditory nerve model. Based on a hypothesized monotonic relationship between loudness and the number of spikes elicited by a stimulus, theoretical prediction of the uncomfortable level has previously been determined by comparing spike counts to a fixed threshold, Nucl. However, no specific rule for determining Nucl has been suggested. Our work determines the uncomfortable level based on the excitation pattern of the neural response in a normal ear. The number of fibers corresponding to the portion of the basilar membrane driven by a stimulus at an uncomfortable level in a normal ear is related to Nucl at an uncomfortable level of the electrical stimulus. Intensity discrimination limens are predicted using signal detection theory via the probability mass function of the neural response and via experimental simulations. The results show that the uncomfortable level for pulse-train stimuli increases slightly as noise level increases. Combining this with our previous threshold predictions, we hypothesize that the dynamic range for noise-modulated pulse-train stimuli should increase with additive noise. However, since our predictions indicate that intensity discrimination under noise degrades, overall intensity coding performance may not improve significantly.

  12. Child mortality after Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanter, Robert K

    2010-03-01

    Age-specific pediatric health consequences of community disruption after Hurricane Katrina have not been analyzed. Post-Katrina vital statistics are unavailable. The objectives of this study were to validate an alternative method to estimate child mortality rates in the greater New Orleans area and compare pre-Katrina and post-Katrina mortality rates. Pre-Katrina 2004 child mortality was estimated from death reports in the local daily newspaper and validated by comparison with pre-Katrina data from the Louisiana Department of Health. Post-Katrina child mortality rates were analyzed as a measure of health consequences. Newspaper-derived estimates of mortality rates appear to be valid except for possible underreporting of neonatal rates. Pre-Katrina and post-Katrina mortality rates were similar for all age groups except infants. Post-Katrina, a 92% decline in mortality rate occurred for neonates (Katrina decline in infant mortality rate exceeds the pre-Katrina discrepancy between newspaper-derived and Department of Health-reported rates. A declining infant mortality rate raises questions about persistent displacement of high-risk infants out of the region. Otherwise, there is no evidence of long-lasting post-Katrina excess child mortality. Further investigation of demographic changes would be of interest to local decision makers and planners for recovery after public health emergencies in other regions.

  13. Cold wake of Hurricane Frances

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Asaro, Eric A.; Sanford, Thomas B.; Niiler, P. Peter; Terrill, Eric J.

    2007-08-01

    An array of instruments air-deployed ahead of Hurricane Frances measured the three-dimensional, time dependent response of the ocean to this strong (60 ms-1) storm. Sea surface temperature cooled by up to 2.2°C with the greatest cooling occurring in a 50-km-wide band centered 60-85 km to the right of the track. The cooling was almost entirely due to vertical mixing, not air-sea heat fluxes. Currents of up to 1.6 ms-1 and thermocline displacements of up to 50 m dispersed as near-inertial internal waves. The heat in excess of 26°C, decreased behind the storm due primarily to horizontal advection of heat away from the storm track, with a small contribution from mixing across the 26°C isotherm. SST cooling under the storm core (0.4°C) produced a 16% decrease in air-sea heat flux implying an approximately 5 ms-1 reduction in peak winds

  14. Risk Assessment of Hurricane Storm Surge for Tampa Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

    2011-12-01

    , Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model with grids of various resolutions to simulate the surges induced by the synthetic storms. The surge risk under each of the climate scenarios is depicted by a surge return level curve (exceedance probability curve). For the city of Tampa, the heights of the 100-year, 500-year, and 1000-year surges under the current climate are estimated to be 3.85, 5.66, and 6.31 m, respectively. Two of the four climate models predict that surge return periods will be significantly shortened in the future climates due to the change of storm climatology; the current 100-year surge may happen every 50 years or less, the 500-year surge every 200 years or less, and the 1000-year surge every 300 years or less. The other two climate models predict that the surge return periods will become moderately shorter or remain almost unchanged in the future climates. Extreme surges up to 12 m at Tampa appear in our simulations. Although occurring with very small probabilities, these extreme surges would have a devastating impact on the Tampa Bay area. By examining the generated synthetic surge database, we study the characteristics of the extreme storms at Tampa Bay, especially for the storms that may interact with edge waves along the Florida west coast.

  15. Hurricane risk management and climate information gatekeeping in southeast Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treuer, G.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical storms provide fresh water necessary for healthy economies and health ecosystems. Hurricanes, massive tropical storms, threaten catastrophic flooding and wind damage. Sea level rise exacerbates flooding risks from rain and storm surge for coastal communities. Climate change adaptation measures to manage this risk must be implemented locally, but actions at other levels of government and by neighboring communities impact the options available to local municipalities. When working on adaptation local decision makers must balance multiple types of risk: physical or scientifically described risks, legal risks, and political risks. Generating usable or actionable climate science is a goal of the academic climate community. To do this we need to expand our analysis to include types of risk that constrain the use of objective science. Integrating physical, legal, and political risks is difficult. Each requires specific expertise and uses unique language. An opportunity exists to study how local decision makers manage all three on a daily basis and how their risk management impacts climate resilience for communities and ecosystems. South Florida's particular vulnerabilities make it an excellent case study. Besides physical vulnerabilities (low elevation, intense coastal development, frequent hurricanes, compromised ecosystems) it also has unique legal and political challenges. Federal and state property rights protections create legal risks for government action that restricts land use to promote climate adaptation. Also, a lack of cases that deal with climate change creates uncertainty about the nature of these legal risks. Politically Florida is divided ideologically and geographically. The regions in the southeast which are most vulnerable are predominantly Hispanic and under-represented at the state level, where leadership on climate change is functionally nonexistent. It is conventional wisdom amongst water managers in Florida that little climate adaptation

  16. The 2016 North Atlantic hurricane season: A season of extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Jennifer M.; Roache, David R.

    2017-05-01

    The 2016 North Atlantic hurricane season had an early start with a rare and powerful storm for January impacting the Azores at hurricane force. Likewise, the end of season heralded Otto which was record breaking in location and intensity being a high-end Category 2 storm at landfall over southern central America in late November. We show that high precipitable water, positive relative vorticity, and low sea level pressure allowed for conducive conditions. During the season, few storms occurred in the main development region. While some environmental conditions were conducive for formation there (such as precipitable water, relative vorticity, and shear), the midlevel relative humidity was too low there for most of the season, presenting very dry conditions in that level of the atmosphere. We further find that the October peak in the accumulated cyclone energy was related to environmentally conducive conditions with positive relative humidity, precipitable water, relative humidity, and low values of sea level pressure. Overall 2016 was notable for a series of extremes, some rarely, and a few never before observed in the Atlantic basin, a potential harbinger of seasons to come in the face of ongoing global climate change.

  17. 77 FR 74341 - Establishing the Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-14

    ... the Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force By the authority vested in me as President by the.... Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012, resulting in major flooding, extensive structural damage... assist the affected region. A disaster of Hurricane Sandy's magnitude merits a comprehensive...

  18. Increase in West Nile neuroinvasive disease after Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caillouët, Kevin A; Michaels, Sarah R; Xiong, Xu; Foppa, Ivo; Wesson, Dawn M

    2008-05-01

    After Hurricane Katrina, the number of reported cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) sharply increased in the hurricane-affected regions of Louisiana and Mississippi. In 2006, a >2-fold increase in WNND incidence was observed in the hurricane-affected areas than in previous years.

  19. Increase in West Nile Neuroinvasive Disease after Hurricane Katrina

    OpenAIRE

    Caillou?t, Kevin A.; Michaels, Sarah R.; Xiong, Xu; Foppa, Ivo; Wesson, Dawn M.

    2008-01-01

    After Hurricane Katrina, the number of reported cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) sharply increased in the hurricane-affected regions of Louisiana and Mississippi. In 2006, a >2-fold increase in WNND incidence was observed in the hurricane-affected areas than in previous years.

  20. Geologic hazards in the region of the Hurricane fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, W.R.

    1997-01-01

    common in southwestern Utah where it has damaged roads, canal embankments, and water-retention structures. Several unexplained sinkholes near the town of Hurricane possibly are the result of collapse of subsurface volcanic features. Geologic formations associated with slope failures along or near the Hurricane fault include rocks of both Mesozoic and Tertiary age. Numerous landslides are present in these materials along the Hurricane Cliffs, and the Petrified Forest Member of the Chinle Formation is commonly associated with slope failures where it crops out in the St. George Basin. Steep slopes and numerous areas of exposed bedrock make rock fall a hazard in the St. George Basin. Debris flows and debris floods in narrow canyons and on alluvial fans often accompany intense summer cloudburst thunderstorms. Flooded basements and foundation problems associated with shallow ground water are common on benches north of the Santa Clara River in the city of Santa Clara. Stream flooding is the most frequently occurring and destructive geologic hazard in southwestern Utah. Since the 1850s, there have been three major riverine (regional) floods and more than 300 damaging flash floods. Although a variety of flood control measures have been implemented, continued rapid growth in the region is again increasing vulnerability to flood hazards. Site-specific studies to evaluate geologic hazards and identify hazard-reduction measures are recommended prior to construction to reduce the need for costly repair, maintenance, or replacement of improperly placed or protected facilities.

  1. National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards—Gulf of Mexico update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Birchler, Justin; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Overbeck, Jacquelyn R.

    2016-01-01

    These data sets contain information on the probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) for each 1-km section of the Gulf of Mexico coast for category 1-5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respond to the direct landfall of category 1-5 hurricanes. Hurricane-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change: collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation. Data on dune morphology (dune crest and toe elevation) and hydrodynamics (storm surge, wave setup and runup) are also included in this data set. As new beach morphology observations and storm predictions become available, this analysis will be updated to describe how coastal vulnerability to storms will vary in the future. The data presented here include the dune morphology observations, as derived from lidar surveys. For further information regarding data collection and/or processing methods refer to USGS Open-File Report 2012–1084 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1084/).

  2. Evaluation of power outages in Connecticut during hypothetical future Hurricane Sandy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanik, D. W.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Yang, J.

    2015-12-01

    Reliable electric power is a staple of our modern society.The purpose of this work was to evaluate the occurrence of power outages under more intense, future Hurricane Sandy simulations in Connecticut. In addition, we also evaluated how many crews would be necessary to restore power in 7 days, and how different vegetation scenarios might contribute to a decrease in outages. We trained five pairwise models on each current Sandy runs (2012) as training using the random forest model (each validated using 10-fold cross-validation), and used each future Sandy run as an independent test. We predict that a future Sandy would have 2.5x as many outages as current Sandy, which would require 3.23x as many crews as current Sandy to restore power in 7 days. We also found that increased vegetation management might decrease outages, which has implications for both fair-weather and storm days of all types (i.e. blizzards, thunderstorms, ice storms). Although we have only evaluated outages for electric distribution networks, there are many other types (water supply, wastewater, telecommunications) that would likely benefit from an analysis of this type. In addition, given that we have the weather simulations already processed within our 2-km weather simulation domain, we would like to expand our vulnerability analyses to surrounding utilities in New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New Hampshire to facilitate regional coordination among electric distribution networks.

  3. The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negri, Andrew J.; Burkardt, Nina; Golden, Joseph H.; Halverson, Jeffrey B.; Huffman, George J.; Larsen, Matthew C.; McGinley, John A.; Updike, Randall G.; Verdin, James P.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.

    2005-01-01

    In August 2004, representatives from NOAA, NASA, the USGS, and other government agencies convened in San Juan, Puerto Rim for a workshop to discuss a proposed research project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum (HFLC). The essence of the HFLC is to develop and integrate tools across disciplines to enable the issuance of regional guidance products for floods and landslides associated with major tropical rain systems, with sufficient lead time that local emergency managers can protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure. All three lead agencies are independently developing precipitation-flood-debris flow forecasting technologies, and all have a history of work on natural hazards both domestically and overseas. NOM has the capability to provide tracking and prediction of storm rainfall, trajectory and landfall and is developing flood probability and magnTtude capabilities. The USGS has the capability to evaluate the ambient stability of natural and man-made landforms, to assess landslide susceptibilities for those landforms, and to establish probabilities for initiation of landslides and debris flows. Additionally, the USGS has well-developed operational capacity for real-time monitoring and reporting of streamflow across distributed networks of automated gaging stations (http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/). NASA has the capability to provide sophisticated algorithms for satellite remote sensing of precipitation, land use, and in the future, soil moisture. The Workshop sought to initiate discussion among three agencies regarding their specific and highly complimentary capabilities. The fundamental goal of the Workshop was to establish a framework that will leverage the strengths of each agency. Once a prototype system is developed for example, in relatively data-rich Puerto Rim, it could be adapted for use in data-poor, low-infrastructure regions such as the Dominican Republic or Haiti. This paper provides an overview of the Workshop s goals

  4. The Department of Defense and Homeland Security relationship: Hurricane Katrina through Hurricane Irene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, John Michael

    2015-01-01

    This research explored federal intervention with the particular emphasis on examining how a collaborative relationship between Department of Defense (DOD) and Homeland Security (DHS) led to greater effectiveness between these two federal departments and their subordinates (United States Northern Command and Federal Emergency Management Agency, respectively) during the preparation and response phases of the disaster cycle regarding US continental-based hurricanes. Through the application of a two-phased, sequential mixed methods approach, this study determined how their relationship has led to longitudinal improvements in the years following Hurricane Katrina, focusing on hurricanes as the primary unit of analysis.

  5. THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE BETA ON THE FORESTS OF PROVIDENCIA ISLAND, COLOMBIA, SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruiz Jorge

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the consequences of global warming in the Caribbean is an increase in thefrequency and intensity of hurricanes. Little is known on the impact of this naturalphenomenon on forests, particularly for dry tropical forests. Understanding this impactin terms of structure and species richness is important for forest management. Slowmoving Hurricane Beta, a category 1, struck Old Providence island, Colombia, inOctober 29, 2005. Before Beta woody vegetation was characterized by 88 2 x 50 mplots (0.01 ha established throughout the island following the protocol by Gentry(1982; 59 plots were studied fi ve years earlier and 29 plots four to fi ve monthsearlier. The impact of hurricane Beta was assessed within 11 plots located in the DryTropical Forests of Old Providence, six months after the hurricane. The These plotswere measured in species composition, diameter at breast height (DBH, and heightwere measured within these plots. There was a considerable reduction in the numberof individuals, stems, height, basal areas, and there was no signifi cant differencebetween DBH. Height damage was positively associated with increasing DHB class.Furthermore, based on the results of species richness, even after controlling for thedifferent number of individuals, through rarefaction, there was no major differencebefore and after Beta.

  6. Effect of hurricane paths on storm surge response at Tianjin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xingru; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou

    2012-06-01

    A hurricane induced storm surge simulation system was developed for Tianjin coast, which consists of a hurricane model and a storm surge model. The peak storm surge result of the simulation agreed well with that of the observation. Three observed paths (Rita, Mimie and WINNIE) and a hypothetical path (Rita2) were chosen as the selective hurricane paths according to their positions relative to Tianjin. The sensitivity of Tianjin storm surge to the four paths was investigated using the validated storm surge simulation system. Three groups of experiments were done. In group one, the models were forced by the wind field and air pressure; in group two and three the models were forced by the wind only and the air pressure only respectively. In the experiments, the hurricane moved with a fixed speed and an intensity of 50 year return period. The simulation results show that path of the type Rita2 is the easiest to cause storm surge disaster in Tianjin, and the effect of air pressure forcing is most evident for path of the type Rita in Tianjin storm surge process. The above conclusions were analyzed through the evolution of the wind fields and the air pressure distributions. Comparing the experiment results of Group one, two and three, it can be seen that the storm surge is mainly induced by the wind forcing and the nonlinear interaction between the effect of wind forcing and air pressure forcing on the storm surge tends to weaken the storm surge.

  7. Hurricanes, coral reefs and rainforests: resistance, ruin and recovery in the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    The coexistence of hurricanes, coral reefs, and rainforests in the Caribbean demonstrates that highly structured ecosystems with great diversity can flourish in spite of recurring exposure to intense destructive energy. Coral reefs develop in response to wave energy and resist hurricanes largely by virtue of their structural strength. Limited fetch also protects some reefs from fully developed hurricane waves. While storms may produce dramatic local reef damage, they appear to have little impact on the ability of coral reefs to provide food or habitat for fish and other animals. Rainforests experience an enormous increase in wind energy during hurricanes with dramatic structural changes in the vegetation. The resulting changes in forest microclimate are larger than those on reefs and the loss of fruit, leaves, cover, and microclimate has a great impact on animal populations. Recovery of many aspects of rainforest structure and function is rapid, though there may be long-term changes in species composition. While resistance and repair have maintained reefs and rainforests in the past, human impacts may threaten their ability to survive.

  8. Landslides triggered by Hurricane Hugo in eastern Puerto Rico, September 1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Matthew C.; Torres-Sanchez, Angel J.

    1992-01-01

    On the morning of September 18, 1989, a category-four hurricane struck eastern Puerto Rico with a sustained wind speed in excess of 46 m/s. The 24-h rainfall accumulation from the hurricane ranged from 100 to 339 mm. Average rainfall intensities ranging from 34 to 39 mm/h were calculated for 4 and 6 h periods, respectively, at a rain gage equipped with satellite telemetry, and at an observer station. The hurricane rainfall triggered more than 400 landslides in the steeply sloping, highly dissected mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. Of these landslides, 285 were mapped from aerial photography which covered 6474 ha. Many of the mapped landslides were on northeast- and northwest-facing slopes at the eastern terminus of the mountains, nearest the hurricane path. The surface area of individual landslides ranged from 18 m2 to 4500 m2, with a median size of 148 m2. The 285 landslides disturbed 0.11% of the land surface in the area covered by aerial photographs. An approximate denudation rate of 164 mm/1000 y was calculated from the volume of material eroded by landsliding and the 10-y rainfall recurrence interval.

  9. A simple model for the spatially-variable coastal response to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, H.F.; Sallenger, A.H.; Holman, R.A.; Howd, P.A.

    2007-01-01

    The vulnerability of a beach to extreme coastal change during a hurricane can be estimated by comparing the relative elevations of storm-induced water levels to those of the dune or berm. A simple model that defines the coastal response based on these elevations was used to hindcast the potential impact regime along a 50-km stretch of the North Carolina coast to the landfalls of Hurricane Bonnie on August 27, 1998, and Hurricane Floyd on September 16, 1999. Maximum total water levels at the shoreline were calculated as the sum of modeled storm surge, astronomical tide, and wave runup, estimated from offshore wave conditions and the local beach slope using an empirical parameterization. Storm surge and wave runup each accounted for ∼ 48% of the signal (the remaining 4% is attributed to astronomical tides), indicating that wave-driven process are a significant contributor to hurricane-induced water levels. Expected water levels and lidar-derived measures of pre-storm dune and berm elevation were used to predict the spatially-varying storm-impact regime: swash, collision, or overwash. Predictions were compared to the observed response quantified using a lidar topography survey collected following hurricane landfall. The storm-averaged mean accuracy of the model in predicting the observed impact regime was 55.4%, a significant improvement over the 33.3% accuracy associated with random chance. Model sensitivity varied between regimes and was highest within the overwash regime where the accuracies were 84.2% and 89.7% for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd, respectively. The model not only allows for prediction of the general coastal response to storms, but also provides a framework for examining the longshore-variable magnitudes of observed coastal change. For Hurricane Bonnie, shoreline and beach volume changes within locations that experienced overwash or dune erosion were two times greater than locations where wave runup was confined to the foreshore (swash regime

  10. Influence of hurricane wind field in the structure of directional wave spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esquivel-Trava, Bernardo; Ocampo-Torres, Francisco J.; Osuna, Pedro

    2015-04-01

    Extensive field measurements of wind waves in deep waters in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, have been analyzed to describe the spatial structure of directional wave spectra during hurricane conditions. Following Esquivel-Trava et al. (2015) this analysis was made for minor hurricanes (categories 1 and 2) and major hurricanes (categories 3, 4 and 5). In both cases the directionality of the energy wave spectrum is similar in all quadrants. Some differences are observed however, and they are associated with the presence and the shape of swell energy in each quadrant. Three numerical experiments using the spectral wave prediction model SWAN were carried out to gain insight into the mechanism that controls the directional and frequency distributions of hurricane wave energy. The aim of the experiments is to evaluate the effect of the translation speed of the hurricane and the presence of concentric eye walls, on both the wave growth process and the shape of the directional wave spectrum. The HRD wind field of Hurricane Dean on August 20 at 7:30 was propagated at two different velocities (5 and 10 m/s). An idealized concentric eye wall (a Gaussian function that evolve in time along a path in the form of an Archimedean spiral) was imposed to the wind field. The white-capping formulation of Westhuysen et al. (2007) was selected. The wave model represents fairly well the directionality of the energy and the shape of the directional spectra in the hurricane domain. The model results indicate that the forward movement of the storm influences the development of the waves, consistent with field observations. This work has been supported by CONACYT scholarship 164510 and projects RugDisMar (155793), CB-2011-01-168173 and the Department of Physical Oceanography of CICESE. References Esquivel-Trava, B., Ocampo-Torres, F. J., & Osuna, P. (2015). Spatial structure of directional wave spectra in hurricanes. Ocean Dynam., 65(1), 65-76. doi:10.1007/s10236-014-0791-9 Van der

  11. Observations of C-Band Brightness Temperature and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate in Hurricanes Earl And Karl (2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Timothy; James, Mark; Roberts, Brent J.; Biswax, Sayak; Uhlhorn, Eric; Black, Peter; Linwood Jones, W.; Johnson, Jimmy; Farrar, Spencer; Sahawneh, Saleem

    2012-01-01

    Ocean surface emission is affected by: a) Sea surface temperature. b) Wind speed (foam fraction). c) Salinity After production of calibrated Tb fields, geophysical fields wind speed and rain rate (or column) are retrieved. HIRAD utilizes NASA Instrument Incubator Technology: a) Provides unique observations of sea surface wind, temp and rain b) Advances understanding & prediction of hurricane intensity c) Expands Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer capabilities d) Uses synthetic thinned array and RFI mitigation technology of Lightweight Rain Radiometer (NASA Instrument Incubator) Passive Microwave C-Band Radiometer with Freq: 4, 5, 6 & 6.6 GHz: a) Version 1: H-pol for ocean wind speed, b) Version 2: dual ]pol for ocean wind vectors. Performance Characteristics: a) Earth Incidence angle: 0deg - 60deg, b) Spatial Resolution: 2-5 km, c) Swath: approx.70 km for 20 km altitude. Observational Goals: WS 10 - >85 m/s RR 5 - > 100 mm/hr.

  12. Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staley, Dennis; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason

    2016-04-01

    burned areas. Our approach synthesizes the two methods by incorporating measured rainfall intensity into each model variable (based on measures of topographic steepness, burn severity and surface properties) within the logistic regression equation. This approach provides a more realistic representation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood, as likelihood values asymptotically approach zero when rainfall intensity approaches 0 mm/h, and increase with more intense rainfall. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predictions to several existing regional thresholds. The model, based upon training data collected in southern California, USA, has proven to accurately predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for other areas in the western United States not included in the original training dataset. In addition, the improved logistic regression model shows promise for emergency planning purposes and real-time, site-specific early warning. With further validation, this model may permit the prediction of spatially-explicit intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in areas where empirically derived regional thresholds do not exist. This improvement would permit the expansion of the early-warning system into other regions susceptible to post-fire debris flow.

  13. Hurricane Ike: Field Investigation Survey (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, L.

    2009-12-01

    Hurricane Ike made landfall at 2:10 a.m. on September 13, 2008, as a Category 2 hurricane. The eye of the hurricane crossed over the eastern end of Galveston Island and a large region of the Texas and Louisiana coast experienced extreme winds, waves and water levels, resulting in large impacts from overtopping, overwash, wind and wave forces and flooding. Major damage stretched from Freeport to the southwest and to Port Arthur to the northeast. The effects of the hurricane force winds were felt well inland in Texas and Louisiana and the storm continued to the interior of the US, causing more damage and loss of life. Through the support of the Coasts, Oceans, Ports and Rivers Institute (COPRI) of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) a team of 14 coastal scientists and engineers inspected the upper Texas coast in early October 2008. The COPRI team surveyed Hurricane Ike’s effects on coastal landforms, structures, marinas, shore protection systems, and other infrastructure. Damages ranges from very minor to complete destruction, depending upon location and elevation. Bolivar Peninsula, to the right of the hurricane path, experienced severe damage and three peninsula communities were completely destroyed. Significant flood and wave damage also was observed in Galveston Island and Brazoria County that were both on the left side of the hurricane path. Beach erosion and prominent overwash fans were observed throughout much of the field investigation area. The post-storm damage survey served to confirm expected performance under extreme conditions, as well as to evaluate recent development trends and conditions unique to each storm. Hurricane Ike confirmed many previously reported observations. One of the main conclusions from the inspection of buildings was that elevation was a key determinant for survival. Elevation is also a major factor in the stability and effectiveness of shore protection. The Galveston Seawall was high enough to provide protection from

  14. Worldwide historical hurricane tracks from 1848 through the previous hurricane season

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This Historical Hurricane Tracks web site provides visualizations of storm tracks derived from the 6-hourly (0000, 0600, 1200, 1800 UTC) center locations and...

  15. New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina: An Unnatural Disaster?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, D.; Werner, B.; Kelso, A.

    2005-12-01

    Motivated by destruction in New Orleans following hurricane Katrina, we use a numerical model to explore how natural processes, economic development, hazard mitigation measures and policy decisions intertwine to produce long periods of quiescence punctuated by disasters of increasing magnitude. Physical, economic and policy dynamics are modeled on a grid representing the subsiding Mississippi Delta region surrounding New Orleans. Water flow and resulting sediment erosion and deposition are simulated in response to prescribed river floods and storms. Economic development operates on a limited number of commodities and services such as agricultural products, oil and chemical industries and port services, with investment and employment responding to both local conditions and global constraints. Development permitting, artificial levee construction and pumping are implemented by policy agents who weigh predicted economic benefits (tax revenue), mitigation costs and potential hazards. Economic risk is reduced by a combination of private insurance, federal flood insurance and disaster relief. With this model, we simulate the initiation and growth of New Orleans coupled with an increasing level of protection from a series of flooding events. Hazard mitigation filters out small magnitude events, but terrain and hydrological modifications amplify the impact of large events. In our model, "natural disasters" are the inevitable outcome of the mismatch between policy based on short-time-scale economic calculations and stochastic forcing by infrequent, high-magnitude flooding events. A comparison of the hazard mitigation response to river- and hurricane-induced flooding will be discussed. Supported by NSF Geology and Paleontology and the Andrew W Mellon Foundation.

  16. Effect of hurricanes and violent storms on salt marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, N.; Ganju, N. K.; Fagherazzi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  17. Hurricane Charley Exposure and Hazard of Preterm Delivery, Florida 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabich, Shannon C; Robinson, Whitney R; Engel, Stephanie M; Konrad, Charles E; Richardson, David B; Horney, Jennifer A

    2016-12-01

    Objective Hurricanes are powerful tropical storm systems with high winds which influence many health effects. Few studies have examined whether hurricane exposure is associated with preterm delivery. We aimed to estimate associations between maternal hurricane exposure and hazard of preterm delivery. Methods We used data on 342,942 singleton births from Florida Vital Statistics Records 2004-2005 to capture pregnancies at risk of delivery during the 2004 hurricane season. Maternal exposure to Hurricane Charley was assigned based on maximum wind speed in maternal county of residence. We estimated hazards of overall preterm delivery (<37 gestational weeks) and extremely preterm delivery (<32 gestational weeks) in Cox regression models, adjusting for maternal/pregnancy characteristics. To evaluate heterogeneity among racial/ethnic subgroups, we performed analyses stratified by race/ethnicity. Additional models investigated whether exposure to multiples hurricanes increased hazard relative to exposure to one hurricane. Results Exposure to wind speeds ≥39 mph from Hurricane Charley was associated with a 9 % (95 % CI 3, 16 %) increase in hazard of extremely preterm delivery, while exposure to wind speed ≥74 mph was associated with a 21 % (95 % CI 6, 38 %) increase. Associations appeared greater for Hispanic mothers compared to non-Hispanic white mothers. Hurricane exposure did not appear to be associated with hazard of overall preterm delivery. Exposure to multiple hurricanes did not appear more harmful than exposure to a single hurricane. Conclusions Hurricane exposure may increase hazard of extremely preterm delivery. As US coastal populations and hurricane severity increase, the associations between hurricane and preterm delivery should be further studied.

  18. Development of a daily mortality probability prediction model from Intensive Care Unit patients using a discrete-time event history analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ying Che; Chang, Kuang Yi; Lin, Shih Pin; Chen, Kung; Chan, Kwok Hon; Chang, Polun

    2013-08-01

    As studies have pointed out, severity scores are imperfect at predicting individual clinical chance of survival. The clinical condition and pathophysiological status of these patients in the Intensive Care Unit might differ from or be more complicated than most predictive models account for. In addition, as the pathophysiological status changes over time, the likelihood of survival day by day will vary. Actually, it would decrease over time and a single prediction value cannot address this truth. Clearly, alternative models and refinements are warranted. In this study, we used discrete-time-event models with the changes of clinical variables, including blood cell counts, to predict daily probability of mortality in individual patients from day 3 to day 28 post Intensive Care Unit admission. Both models we built exhibited good discrimination in the training (overall area under ROC curve: 0.80 and 0.79, respectively) and validation cohorts (overall area under ROC curve: 0.78 and 0.76, respectively) to predict daily ICU mortality. The paper describes the methodology, the development process and the content of the models, and discusses the possibility of them to serve as the foundation of a new bedside advisory or alarm system.

  19. Hurricane names: A bunch of hot air?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Smith

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available It has been argued that female-named hurricanes are deadlier because people do not take them seriously. However, this conclusion is based on a questionable statistical analysis of a narrowly defined data set. The reported relationship is not robust in that it is not confirmed by a straightforward analysis of more inclusive data or different data.

  20. Wind and waves in extreme hurricanes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holthuijsen, L.H.; Powell, M.D.; Pietrzak, J.D.

    2012-01-01

    Waves breaking at the ocean surface are important to the dynamical, chemical and biological processes at the air-sea interface. The traditional view is that the white capping and aero-dynamical surface roughness increase with wind speed up to a limiting value. This view is fundamental to hurricane

  1. Economic impacts of hurricanes on forest owners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2010-01-01

    We present a conceptual model of the economic impacts of hurricanes on timber producers and consumers, offer a framework indicating how welfare impacts can be estimated using econometric estimates of timber price dynamics, and illustrate the advantages of using a welfare theoretic model, which includes (1) welfare estimates that are consistent with neo-classical...

  2. Investigation of long-term hurricane activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, B.M.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach of applying numerical methods to model storm processes. A storm empirical track technique is utilized to simulate the full tracks of hurricanes, starting with their initial points over the sea and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations. The

  3. Hurricane Ike versus an Atomic Bomb

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Earl F.

    2013-01-01

    The destructive potential of one of nature's most destructive forces, the hurricane, is compared to one of human's most destructive devices, an atomic bomb. Both can create near absolute devastation at "ground zero". However, how do they really compare in terms of destructive energy? This discussion compares the energy, the…

  4. Rapid mapping of hurricane damage to forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erik M. Nielsen

    2009-01-01

    The prospects for producing rapid, accurate delineations of the spatial extent of forest wind damage were evaluated using Hurricane Katrina as a test case. A damage map covering the full spatial extent of Katrina?s impact was produced from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery using higher resolution training data. Forest damage...

  5. The economics and ethics of Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockwell, Llewellyn H; Block, Walter E

    2010-01-01

    How might free enterprise have dealt with Hurricane Katrina and her aftermath. This article probes this question at increasing levels of radicalization, starting with the privatization of several government “services” and ending with the privatization of all of them.

  6. Gulf Coast Hurricanes Situation Report #40

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2005-11-14

    On 11/12 Florida Power & Light (FPL) announced that crews had essentially completed Hurricane Wilma restoration efforts to all 3.2 million customers in South Florida who had been without power. Electricity restoration efforts are now essentially complete in Florida.

  7. Hurricanes as Heat Engines: Two Undergraduate Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyykko, Pekka

    2007-01-01

    Hurricanes can be regarded as Carnot heat engines. One reason that they can be so violent is that thermodynamically, they demonstrate large efficiency, [epsilon] = (T[subscript h] - T[subscript c]) / T[subscript h], which is of the order of 0.3. Evaporation of water vapor from the ocean and its subsequent condensation is the main heat transfer…

  8. Evacuating the Area of a Hurricane

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2006-08-10

    If a hurricane warning is issued for your area, or authorities tell you to evacuate, take only essential items. If you have time, turn off gas, electricity, and water and disconnect appliances.  Created: 8/10/2006 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 10/10/2007.

  9. Wind and waves in extreme hurricanes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holthuijsen, L.H.; Powell, M.D.; Pietrzak, J.D.

    2012-01-01

    Waves breaking at the ocean surface are important to the dynamical, chemical and biological processes at the air-sea interface. The traditional view is that the white capping and aero-dynamical surface roughness increase with wind speed up to a limiting value. This view is fundamental to hurricane f

  10. Wind and waves in extreme hurricanes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holthuijsen, L.H.; Powell, M.D.; Pietrzak, J.D.

    2012-01-01

    Waves breaking at the ocean surface are important to the dynamical, chemical and biological processes at the air-sea interface. The traditional view is that the white capping and aero-dynamical surface roughness increase with wind speed up to a limiting value. This view is fundamental to hurricane f

  11. Investigation of long-term hurricane activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, B.M.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach of applying numerical methods to model storm processes. A storm empirical track technique is utilized to simulate the full tracks of hurricanes, starting with their initial points over the sea and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations. The theo

  12. Preparing for a Hurricane: Prescription Medications

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2006-08-10

    What you should do to protect yourself and your family from a hurricane. As you evacuate, remember to take your prescription medicines with you.  Created: 8/10/2006 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 7/17/2008.

  13. Hurricane Ike versus an Atomic Bomb

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Earl F.

    2013-01-01

    The destructive potential of one of nature's most destructive forces, the hurricane, is compared to one of human's most destructive devices, an atomic bomb. Both can create near absolute devastation at "ground zero". However, how do they really compare in terms of destructive energy? This discussion compares the energy, the…

  14. Elements of extreme wind modeling for hurricanes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Søren Ejling; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans; Kelly, Mark C.;

    The report summarizes characteristics of the winds associated with Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes, Typhoons). It has been conducted by the authors across several years, from 2012-2015, to identify the processes and aspects that one should consider when building at useful computer support system...

  15. The Impact of Lightning on Hurricane Rapid Intensification Forecasts Using the HWRF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosado, K.; Tallapragada, V.; Jenkins, G. S.

    2016-12-01

    In 2010, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) created the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) with the main goal of improving the tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasts by 50% in ten years. One of the focus areas is the improvement of the tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) forecasts. In order to contribute to this task, the role of lightning during the life cycle of a tropical cyclone using the NCEP operational HWRF hurricane model has been investigated. We ask two key research questions: (1) What is the functional relationship between atmospheric moisture content, lightning, and intensity in the HWRF model? and (2) How well does the HWRF model forecast the spatial distributions of lightning before, during, and after tropical cyclone intensification, especially for RI events? In order to address those questions, a lightning parameterization scheme called the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) was implemented into the HWRF model. The selected study cases to test the LPI implementation on the 2015 HWRF (operational version) are: Earl and Joaquin (North Atlantic), Haiyan (Western North Pacific), and Patricia (Eastern North Pacific). Five-day forecasts was executed on each case study with emphasis on rapid intensification periods. An extensive analysis between observed "best track" intensity, model intensity forecast, and potential for lightning forecast was performed. Preliminary results show that: (1) strong correlation between lightning and intensity changes does exists; and (2) the potential for lightning increases to its maximum peak a few hours prior to the peak intensity of the tropical cyclone. LPI peak values could potentially serve as indicator for future rapid intensification periods. Results from this investigation are giving us a better understanding of the mechanism behind lightning as a proxy for tropical cyclone steady state intensification and tropical cyclone rapid intensification processes. Improvement of

  16. Hurricane Frances as Observed by NASA's Spaceborne Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and SeaWinds

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    This image shows Hurricane Frances as captured by instruments onboard two different satellites: the AIRS infrared instrument onboard Aqua, and the SeaWinds scatterometer onboard QuikSCAT. Both are JPL-managed instruments. AIRS data are used to create global three-dimensional maps of temperature, humidity and clouds, while scatterometers measure surface wind speed and direction over the ocean. The red vectors in the image show Frances' surface winds as measured by SeaWinds on QuikSCAT. The background colors show the temperature of clouds and surface as viewed in the infrared by AIRS, with cooler areas pushing to purple and warmer areas are pushing to red. The color scale on the right gives the temperatures in degrees Kelvin. (The top of the scale, 320 degrees Kelvin, corresponds to 117 degrees Fahrenheit, and the bottom, 180 degrees K is -135 degrees F.) The powerful circulation of this storm is evident from the combined data as well as the development of a clearly-defined central 'eye'. The infrared signal does not penetrate through clouds, so the light blue areas reveal the cold clouds tops associated with strong thunderstorms embedded within the storm. In cloud-free areas the infrared signal comes from Earth's surface, revealing warmer temperatures. The power of the SeaWinds scatterometer data set lies in its ability to generate global maps of wind speed and direction, giving us a snapshot of how the atmosphere is circulating. Weather prediction centers, including the Tropical Prediction Center - a branch of NOAA that monitors the creation of ocean-born storms, use scatterometer data to help it 'see' where these storms are brewing so that warnings can be issued and the storms, with often erratic motions, can be tracked. While the SeaWinds instrument isn't designed to gather hurricane data, having difficulty seeing the surface in heavy rain, it's data can be used in combination with other data sets to give us an insight into these storms. In this combination image

  17. Prediction of outcome from intensive care: a prospective cohort study comparing Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and III prognostic systems in a United Kingdom intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, D H; Taylor, B L; Millar, B; Smith, G B

    1997-01-01

    To evaluate the ability of two prognostic systems to predict hospital mortality in adult intensive care patients. Prospective cohort study. A mixed medical and surgical intensive care unit (ICU) in the United Kingdom. A total of 1,144 patients consecutively admitted to the study. None. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and III prognostic systems were applied to assess probabilities of hospital mortality, which were compared with the actual outcome. The overall goodness-of-fit of both models was assessed. Hospital death rates were higher than those predicted by each system. Risk estimates showed a strong positive correlation between both systems (nonsurvivors r2 = 0.756, p best overall total correct classification rate was 80.6% for APACHE III and 77.9% for APACHE II (both for a decision criterion of 40%). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.806 and 0.847 for APACHE II and III, respectively, confirming the better discrimination of APACHE III. When patients were classified by diagnostic categories, risk predictions did not fit uniformly across the spectrum of disease groups. For both models, mortality ratios were highest for trauma patients and lowest for the group with respiratory disease. APACHE II predictions for patients with gastrointestinal disease were significantly better. Risk estimates for surgical admissions were superior with APACHE II (MR = 1.27) compared with APACHE III (MR = 1.56), but were similar for medical patients (1.22 vs. 1.28 for APACHE II and III, respectively). Bias induced by factors reflecting the clinical practice in an individual ICU (e.g., admission criteria, treatment before admission) may have considerable impact on risk estimates. The identification of such factors appears to be a prerequisite for the meaningful interpretation of observed and predicted death rates on the individual ICU level. Both predictive models demonstrated a similar degree of overall goodness-of-fit. APACHE

  18. Urban sprawl and body mass index among displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcaya, Mariana; James, Peter; Rhodes, Jean E; Waters, Mary C; Subramanian, S V

    2014-08-01

    Existing research suggests that walkable environments are protective against weight gain, while sprawling neighborhoods may pose health risks. Using prospective data on displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors, we provide the first natural experimental data on sprawl and body mass index (BMI). The analysis uses prospectively collected pre- (2003-2005) and post-hurricane (2006-2007) data from the Resilience in Survivors of Katrina (RISK) project on 280 displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors who had little control over their neighborhood placement immediately after the disaster. The county sprawl index, a standardized measure of built environment, was used to predict BMI at follow-up, adjusted for baseline BMI and sprawl; hurricane-related trauma; and demographic and economic characteristics. Respondents from 8 New Orleans-area counties were dispersed to 76 counties post-Katrina. Sprawl increased by an average of 1.5 standard deviations (30 points) on the county sprawl index. Each one point increase in sprawl was associated with approximately .05kg/m(2) higher BMI in unadjusted models (95%CI: .01-.08), and the relationship was not attenuated after covariate adjustment. We find a robust association between residence in a sprawling county and higher BMI unlikely to be caused by self-selection into neighborhoods, suggesting that the built environment may foster changes in weight. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Nutrient enrichment intensifies hurricane impact in scrub mangrove ecosystems in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feller, Ilka C; Dangremond, Emily M; Devlin, Donna J; Lovelock, Catherine E; Proffitt, C Edward; Rodriguez, Wilfrid

    2015-11-01

    Mangroves are an ecological assemblage of trees and shrubs adapted to grow in intertidal environments along tropical, subtropical, and warm temperate coasts. Despite repeated demonstrations of their ecologic and economic value, multiple stressors including nutrient over-enrichment threaten these and other coastal wetlands globally. These ecosystems will be further stressed if tropical storm intensity and frequency increase in response to global climate changes. These stressors will likely interact, but the outcome of that interaction is uncertain. Here, we examined potential interaction between nutrient over-enrichment and the September 2004 hurricanes. Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne made landfall along Florida's Indian River Lagoon and caused extensive damage to a long-term fertilization experiment in a mangrove forest, which previously revealed that productivity was nitrogen (N) limited across the forest and, in particular, that N enrichment dramatically increased growth rates and aboveground biomass of stunted Avicennia germinans trees in the interior scrub zone. During the hurricanes, these trees experienced significant defoliation with three to four times greater reduction in leaf area index (LAI) than control trees. Over the long-term, the +N scrub trees took four years to recover compared to two years for controls. In the adjacent fringe and transition zones, LAI was reduced by > 70%, but with no differences based on zone or fertilization treatment. Despite continued delayed mortality for at least five years after the storms, LAI in the fringe and transition returned to pre-hurricane conditions in two years. Thus, nutrient over-enrichment of the coastal zone will increase the productivity of scrub mangroves, which dominate much of the mangrove landscape in Florida and the Caribbean; however, that benefit is offset by a decrease in their resistance and resilience to hurricane damage that has the potential to destabilize the system.

  20. The performance of customised APACHE II and SAPS II in predicting mortality of mixed critically ill patients in a Thai medical intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khwannimit, B; Bhurayanontachai, R

    2009-09-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the performance of customised Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation HII (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score HII (SAPS II) in predicting hospital mortality of mixed critically ill Thai patients in a medical intensive care unit. A prospective cohort study was conducted over a four-year period. The subjects were randomly divided into calibration and validation groups. Logistic regression analysis was used for customisation. The performance of the scores was evaluated by the discrimination, calibration and overall fit in the overall group and across subgroups in the validation group. Two thousand and forty consecutive intensive care unit admissions during the study period were split into two groups. Both customised models showed excellent discrimination. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the customised APACHE II was greater than the customised SAPS II (0.925 and 0.892, P APACHE II in overall populations and various subgroups but insufficient calibration for the customised SAPS II. The customised SAPS II showed good calibration in only the younger, postoperative and sepsis patients subgroups. The overall performance of the customised APACHE II was better than the customised SAPS II (Brier score 0.089 and 0.109, respectively). Our results indicate that the customised APACHE II shows better performance than the customised SAPS II in predicting hospital mortality and could be used to predict mortality and quality assessment in our unit or other intensive care units with a similar case mix.

  1. SU-E-T-802: Verification of Implanted Cardiac Pacemaker Doses in Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy: Dose Prediction Accuracy and Reduction Effect of a Lead Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, J [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Konkuk University Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Chung, J [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: To verify delivered doses on the implanted cardiac pacemaker, predicted doses with and without dose reduction method were verified using the MOSFET detectors in terms of beam delivery and dose calculation techniques in intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). Methods: The pacemaker doses for a patient with a tongue cancer were predicted according to the beam delivery methods [step-and-shoot (SS) and sliding window (SW)], intensity levels for dose optimization, and dose calculation algorithms. Dosimetric effects on the pacemaker were calculated three dose engines: pencil-beam convolution (PBC), analytical anisotropic algorithm (AAA), and Acuros-XB. A lead shield of 2 mm thickness was designed for minimizing irradiated doses to the pacemaker. Dose variations affected by the heterogeneous material properties of the pacemaker and effectiveness of the lead shield were predicted by the Acuros-XB. Dose prediction accuracy and the feasibility of the dose reduction strategy were verified based on the measured skin doses right above the pacemaker using mosfet detectors during the radiation treatment. Results: The Acuros-XB showed underestimated skin doses and overestimated doses by the lead-shield effect, even though the lower dose disagreement was observed. It led to improved dose prediction with higher intensity level of dose optimization in IMRT. The dedicated tertiary lead sheet effectively achieved reduction of pacemaker dose up to 60%. Conclusion: The current SS technique could deliver lower scattered doses than recommendation criteria, however, use of the lead sheet contributed to reduce scattered doses.Thin lead plate can be a useful tertiary shielder and it could not acuse malfunction or electrical damage of the implanted pacemaker in IMRT. It is required to estimate more accurate scattered doses of the patient with medical device to design proper dose reduction strategy.

  2. Numerical simulation of a low-lying barrier island's morphological response to Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindemer, C.A.; Plant, N.G.; Puleo, J.A.; Thompson, D.M.; Wamsley, T.V.

    2010-01-01

    Tropical cyclones that enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico generate storm surge and large waves that impact low-lying coastlines along the Gulf Coast. The Chandeleur Islands, located 161. km east of New Orleans, Louisiana, have endured numerous hurricanes that have passed nearby. Hurricane Katrina (landfall near Waveland MS, 29 Aug 2005) caused dramatic changes to the island elevation and shape. In this paper the predictability of hurricane-induced barrier island erosion and accretion is evaluated using a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model known as XBeach. Pre- and post-storm island topography was surveyed with an airborne lidar system. Numerical simulations utilized realistic surge and wave conditions determined from larger-scale hydrodynamic models. Simulations included model sensitivity tests with varying grid size and temporal resolutions. Model-predicted bathymetry/topography and post-storm survey data both showed similar patterns of island erosion, such as increased dissection by channels. However, the model under predicted the magnitude of erosion. Potential causes for under prediction include (1) errors in the initial conditions (the initial bathymetry/topography was measured three years prior to Katrina), (2) errors in the forcing conditions (a result of our omission of storms prior to Katrina and/or errors in Katrina storm conditions), and/or (3) physical processes that were omitted from the model (e.g., inclusion of sediment variations and bio-physical processes). ?? 2010.

  3. Modelling hurricane exposure and wind speed on a mesoclimate scale: a case study from Cusuco NP, Honduras.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sven P Batke

    Full Text Available High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP, Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS's were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field. Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%.

  4. Modelling hurricane exposure and wind speed on a mesoclimate scale: a case study from Cusuco NP, Honduras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batke, Sven P; Jocque, Merlijn; Kelly, Daniel L

    2014-01-01

    High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP), Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS) through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS's were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction) explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field). Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%.

  5. Predicting dropout from intensive outpatient cognitive behavioural therapy for binge eating disorder using pre-treatment characteristics: A naturalistic study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vroling, M.S.; Wiersma, F.E.; Lammers, M.W.; Noorthoorn, E.O.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Dropout rates in binge eating disorder (BED) treatment are high (17-30%), and predictors of dropout are unknown. Method: Participants were 376 patients following an intensive outpatient cognitive behavioural therapy programme for BED, 82 of whom (21.8%) dropped out of treatment. An explo

  6. Predicting dropout from intensive outpatient cognitive behavioural therapy for binge eating disorder using pre-treatment characteristics: A naturalistic study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vroling, M.S.; Wiersma, F.E.; Lammers, M.W.; Noorthoorn, E.O.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Dropout rates in binge eating disorder (BED) treatment are high (17-30%), and predictors of dropout are unknown. Method: Participants were 376 patients following an intensive outpatient cognitive behavioural therapy programme for BED, 82 of whom (21.8%) dropped out of treatment. An

  7. Impact of Hurricane Exposure on Reproductive Health Outcomes, Florida, 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabich, Shannon C; Robinson, Whitney R; Konrad, Charles E; Horney, Jennifer A

    2017-08-01

    Prenatal hurricane exposure may be an increasingly important contributor to poor reproductive health outcomes. In the current literature, mixed associations have been suggested between hurricane exposure and reproductive health outcomes. This may be due, in part, to residual confounding. We assessed the association between hurricane exposure and reproductive health outcomes by using a difference-in-difference analysis technique to control for confounding in a cohort of Florida pregnancies. We implemented a difference-in-difference analysis to evaluate hurricane weather and reproductive health outcomes including low birth weight, fetal death, and birth rate. The study population for analysis included all Florida pregnancies conceived before or during the 2003 and 2004 hurricane season. Reproductive health data were extracted from vital statistics records from the Florida Department of Health. In 2004, 4 hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) made landfall in rapid succession; whereas in 2003, no hurricanes made landfall in Florida. Overall models using the difference-in-difference analysis showed no association between exposure to hurricane weather and reproductive health. The inconsistency of the literature on hurricane exposure and reproductive health may be in part due to biases inherent in pre-post or regression-based county-level comparisons. We found no associations between hurricane exposure and reproductive health. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:407-411).

  8. Acid sphingomyelinase serum activity predicts mortality in intensive care unit patients after systemic inflammation: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Kott

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Acid sphingomyelinase is involved in lipid signalling pathways and regulation of apoptosis by the generation of ceramide and plays an important role during the host response to infectious stimuli. It thus has the potential to be used as a novel diagnostic marker in the management of critically ill patients. The objective of our study was to evaluate acid sphingomyelinase serum activity (ASM as a diagnostic and prognostic marker in a mixed intensive care unit population before, during, and after systemic inflammation. METHODS: 40 patients admitted to the intensive care unit at risk for developing systemic inflammation (defined as systemic inflammatory response syndrome plus a significant procalcitonin [PCT] increase were included. ASM was analysed on ICU admission, before (PCT before, during (PCT peak and after (PCT low onset of SIRS. Patients undergoing elective surgery served as control (N = 8. Receiver-operating characteristics curves were computed. RESULTS: ASM significantly increased after surgery in the eight control patients. Patients from the intensive care unit had significantly higher ASM on admission than control patients after surgery. 19 out of 40 patients admitted to the intensive care unit developed systemic inflammation and 21 did not, with no differences in ASM between these two groups on admission. In patients with SIRS and PCT peak, ASM between admission and PCT before was not different, but further increased at PCT peak in non-survivors and was significantly higher at PCT low compared to survivors. Survivors exhibited decreased ASM at PCT peak and PCT low. Receiver operating curve analysis on discrimination of ICU mortality showed an area under the curve of 0.79 for ASM at PCT low. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, ASM was generally higher in patients admitted to the intensive care unit compared to patients undergoing uncomplicated surgery. ASM did not indicate onset of systemic inflammation. In contrast to PCT however

  9. Children's predisaster functioning as a predictor of posttraumatic stress following Hurricane Andrew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Greca, A M; Silverman, W K; Wasserstein, S B

    1998-12-01

    This study examined (a) children's predisaster behavioral and academic functioning as a predictor of posttraumatic stress (PTS) following Hurricane Andrew and (b) whether children who were exposed to the disaster would display a worsening of prior functioning. Fifteen months before the disaster, 92 4th through 6th graders provided self-reports of anxiety; peers and teachers rated behavior problems (anxiety, inattention, and conduct) and academic skills. Measures were repeated 3 months postdisaster; children also reported PTS symptoms and hurricane-related experiences (i.e., exposure). PTS symptoms were again assessed 7 months postdisaster. At 3 months postdisaster, children's exposure to the disaster, as well as predisaster ratings of anxiety, inattention, and academic skills, predicted PTS symptoms. By 7 months, only exposure, African American ethnicity, and predisaster anxiety predicted PTS. Prior anxiety levels also worsened as a result of exposure to the disaster. The findings have implications for identifying and treating children at risk for stress reactions following a catastrophic disaster.

  10. Mapping and Visualization of Storm-Surge Dynamics for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesch, Dean B.

    2009-01-01

    The damages caused by the storm surges from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were significant and occurred over broad areas. Storm-surge maps are among the most useful geospatial datasets for hurricane recovery, impact assessments, and mitigation planning for future storms. Surveyed high-water marks were used to generate a maximum storm-surge surface for Hurricane Katrina extending from eastern Louisiana to Mobile Bay, Alabama. The interpolated surface was intersected with high-resolution lidar elevation data covering the study area to produce a highly detailed digital storm-surge inundation map. The storm-surge dataset and related data are available for display and query in a Web-based viewer application. A unique water-level dataset from a network of portable pressure sensors deployed in the days just prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall captured the hurricane's storm surge. The recorded sensor data provided water-level measurements with a very high temporal resolution at surveyed point locations. The resulting dataset was used to generate a time series of storm-surge surfaces that documents the surge dynamics in a new, spatially explicit way. The temporal information contained in the multiple storm-surge surfaces can be visualized in a number of ways to portray how the surge interacted with and was affected by land surface features. Spatially explicit storm-surge products can be useful for a variety of hurricane impact assessments, especially studies of wetland and land changes where knowledge of the extent and magnitude of storm-surge flooding is critical.

  11. Evaluation of the impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall and hurricanes in Central and South America and the Atlantic Ocean using ICI-RAFT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannettone, J. P.

    2013-12-01

    Based on the method of Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) and L-moments (Hosking & Wallis, 1997), a tool was developed to estimate the frequency/intensity of a rainfall event of a particular duration using ground-based rainfall observations. Some of the code used to develop this tool was taken from the FORTRAN code provided by Hosking & Wallis and rewritten in Visual Basic 2010. This tool was developed at the International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management (ICIWaRM) and is referred to as the ICIWaRM Regional Analysis of Frequency Tool (ICI-RAFT) (Giovannettone & Wright, 2012). In order to study the effectiveness of ICI-RAFT, three case studies were selected for the analysis. The studies take place in selected regions within Argentina, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Rainfall data were provided at locations throughout each country; total rainfall for specific periods were computed and analyzed with respect to several global climate indices using lag times ranging from 1 to 6 months. Each analysis attempts to identify a global climate index capable of predicting above or below average rainfall several months in advance, qualitatively and using an equation that is developed. The index that had the greatest impact was the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), which is the focus of the current study. The MJO is considered the largest element of intra-seasonal (30 - 90 days) variability in the tropical atmosphere and, unlike other indices, is characterized by the eastward propagation of large areas of convective anomalies near the equator, propagating from the Indian Ocean east into the Pacific Ocean. The anomalies are monitored globally using ten different indices located on lines of longitude near the equator, with seven in the eastern hemisphere and three in the western hemisphere. It has been found in previous studies that the MJO is linked to summer rainfall in Southeast China (Zhang et al., 2009) and southern Africa (Pohl et al., 2007) and to rainfall patterns

  12. Clinical Effectiveness of Modified SOFA (MSOFA scoring system for predicting mortality and length of stay in patients hospitalized in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Babamohamadi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: The ability to recognize the severity of the disease in those who their survival depend entirely on admission to the intensive care unit, is very valuable clinically. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of MSOFA scale to predict mortality and length of stay in ICU patients respectively. Methods: This was a retrospective cross-sectional study conducted on hospital records of patients admitted to the intensive care unit of Kowsar Hospital of Semnan. The data collection tool was a demographic questionnaire and MSOFA scale. Finally, data were analyzed using SPSS version 16 by logistic regression and ROC curve. Results: The study of 105 patients' records of the intensive care unit in 2015 showed that 45/7% of patients were died, 15/2% and 39% were discharged and moved to other wards respectively. The results of logistic regression analysis and ROC curve showed that this criterion had moderate sensitivity and specificity for prediction of mortality and length of stay in ICU patients (Area=0/635, CI= 0/527-0/743( and each unit increase in MSOFA score is accompanied by increasing 32 percent chance of death (OR=1.325; 95% CI:1.129,1.555; P=0.001(. Also each unit increase in MSOFA score accompanied by increasing 19% length of stay in ICU (OR=1.191; 95% CI: 1.034, 1.371; P=0.015(. Conclusion: The results of this study showed that the MSOFA scale is not useful tool to predict the length of stay and mortality of patients admitted to the intensive care unit.

  13. A space-time statistical climate model for hurricane intensification in the North Atlantic basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraza, Erik; Elsner, James B.; Jagger, Thomas H.

    2016-08-01

    Climate influences on hurricane intensification are investigated by averaging hourly intensification rates over the period 1975-2014 in 8° × 8° latitude-longitude grid cells. The statistical effects of hurricane intensity and sea-surface temperature (SST), along with the climatic effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are quantified using a Bayesian hierarchical model fit to the averaged data. As expected, stronger hurricanes tend to have higher intensification rates, especially over the warmest waters. Of the three climate variables considered, the NAO has the largest effect on intensification rates after controlling for intensity and SST. The model shows an average increase in intensification rates of 0.18 [0.06, 0.31] m s-1 h-1 (95 % credible interval) for every 1 standard deviation decrease in the NAO index. Weak trade winds associated with the negative phase of the NAO might result in less vertical wind shear and thus higher mean intensification rates.

  14. Development and evolution of convective bursts in WRF simulations of hurricanes Dean (2007) and Bill (2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazelton, Andrew Todd

    Understanding and predicting the inner-core structure and intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs) remains one of the biggest challenges in tropical meteorology. This study addresses this challenge by investigating the formation, structure, and intensity changes resulting from localized strong updrafts in TCs known as convective bursts (CBs). The evolution of CBs are analyzed in high-resolution simulations of two hurricanes (Dean 2007 and Bill 2009) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The simulations are able to capture the observed track and peak intensity of the TCs. With Dean, there is a slight lag between the simulated intensification and actual intensification, and the extreme rate of RI is not fully captured. However, the cycle of intensification, weakening, and re-intensification observed in both TCs is captured in the simulations, and appears to be due to a combination of internal dynamics and the surrounding environmental conditions. CBs are identified based on the 99th percentile of eyewall vertical velocity (over the layer from z = 6-12 km) in each simulation (8.4 m s-1 for Dean, 5.4 m s-1 for Bill). The highest density of CBs is found in the downshear-left quadrant, consistent with prior studies. The structure of the CBs is analyzed by comparing r-z composites of azimuths with CBs and azimuths without CBs, using composite figures and statistical comparisons. The CB composites show stronger radial inflow in the lowest 0-2 km, and stronger radial outflow from the eye to the eyewall in the 2-4 km layer. The CB composites also have stronger low-level vorticity than the non-CBs, potentially due to eyewall mesovortices. The analysis of individual CBs also confirms the importance of the eye-eyewall exchange in CB development, potentially by providing buoyancy, as parcel trajectories show that many parcels are flung outward from the eye and rapidly ascend in the CBs, with as much as 500 J/kg of CAPE along the parcel path. In addition, the

  15. The weight of flash chromatography: A tool to predict its mass intensity from thin-layer chromatography

    OpenAIRE

    Freddy Pessel; Jacques Augé; Isabelle Billault; Marie-Christine Scherrmann

    2016-01-01

    Purification by flash chromatography strongly impacts the greenness of a process. Unfortunately, due to the lack of the relevant literature data, very often this impact cannot be assessed thus preventing the comparison of the environmental factors affecting the syntheses. We developed a simple mathematical approach to evaluate the minimum mass intensity of flash chromatography from the retention factor values determined by thin-layer chromatography.

  16. Using the braden and glasgow scales to predict pressure ulcer risk in patients hospitalized at intensive care units

    OpenAIRE

    Luciana Magnani Fernandes; Maria Helena Larcher Caliri

    2008-01-01

    Pressure ulcers remain a major health issue for critical patients. The purpose of this descriptive and exploratory study was to analyze the risk factors for the development of pressure ulcers in patients hospitalized at an intensive care unit of a university hospital. Patients were assessed through the Braden scale to determine the risk for the development of pressure ulcers and to identify individual risks, and the Glasgow scale was used to assess their consciousness. It was found that the r...

  17. The weight of flash chromatography: A tool to predict its mass intensity from thin-layer chromatography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freddy Pessel

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Purification by flash chromatography strongly impacts the greenness of a process. Unfortunately, due to the lack of the relevant literature data, very often this impact cannot be assessed thus preventing the comparison of the environmental factors affecting the syntheses. We developed a simple mathematical approach to evaluate the minimum mass intensity of flash chromatography from the retention factor values determined by thin-layer chromatography.

  18. The influence of coastal wetlands on hurricane surge in Corpus Christi, TX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, C.; Irish, J. L.; Olivera, F.

    2010-12-01

    The State of Texas has historically faced hurricane-related damage episodes, with Ike being the most recent example. It is expected that, in the future, hurricanes will intensify due to climate change causing greater surges, while the attenuating effect of wetlands on storm surges will also be modified due to sea level rise changes in wetland vegetation type and spatial location. Numerical analysis of storm surges is an important instrument to predict and simulate flooding extent and magnitude in coastal areas. Most operational surge models account for the influence of wetlands and other vegetation by momentum loss due to friction at the bottom and by reduction of imposed wind stress. A coupled hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) and wave model (SWAN) was employed, and wetlands were characterized using Manning’s n, surface canopy, and surface roughness. The wetlands parameters were developed from: 1) the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 1992 and 2001; 2) the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) 2001. The calibrated coupled model for two historical hurricanes, Bret and Beulah, was used to simulate the storm surge for each scenario. Preliminary results for the sensitivity analyses, for hurricane Bret, comparing the scenarios with parameters developed from NLCD and NWI datasets with four hypothetical scenarios considering very high and low Manning’s n and wind stress (surface canopy) values showed that, for areas inside Nueces Bay, the storm surge high could vary up to four times depending on the parameter selection, for areas inside Corpus Christi Bay, the storm surge high varied around three times and behind the barrier island the storm surge high variation was less than three times. This study is a first step for an evaluation of the impact that sea level rise, climate changed wetlands, wetlands restoration, land use change, and wetlands degradation have on hurricane related surge elevation and extent in the city of Corpus Christi.

  19. 78 FR 32296 - Second Allocation of Public Transportation Emergency Relief Funds in Response to Hurricane Sandy...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-29

    ... Response to Hurricane Sandy: Response, Recovery & Resiliency AGENCY: Federal Transit Administration (FTA... recipients most severely affected by Hurricane Sandy: the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, New Jersey... Federal Register notice, bringing the total amount of Hurricane Sandy Emergency Relief funds allocated...

  20. Social and psychological resources associated with health status in a representative sample of adults affected by the 2004 Florida hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggiero, Kenneth J; Amstadter, Ananda B; Acierno, Ron; Kilpatrick, Dean G; Resnick, Heidi S; Tracy, Melissa; Galea, Sandro

    2009-01-01

    Overall health status after a disaster may be associated with long-term physical morbidity and mortality. Little is known about factors associated with overall health status in the aftermath of disasters. We examined self-rated health in relation to disaster characteristics, social resources, and post-disaster outcomes in a sample of adults who experienced the 2004 Florida hurricanes. We interviewed a representative sample of 1,452 adults aged 18 years and older residing in the 33 Florida counties that were in the direct path of at least one of the 2004 hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne). Overall health status was assessed using a self-rating format known to be predictive of mortality. Poor self-rated health was endorsed by 14.6% of the sample. Final multivariable models showed that poor self-rated health was associated with older age (p hurricane (p = 0.03), low social support (p = 0.03), and depression (p = 0.003) since the hurricane. Self-rated health following the Florida hurricanes was strongly associated with two variables (social support and depression) that potentially can be mitigated through targeted interventions after disasters. Future work should evaluate secondary prevention strategies that can address general health-related concerns in the wake of a disaster.

  1. The impact of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike on offshore oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaiser, Mark J.; Yu, Yunke [Center for Energy Studies, Louisiana State University, Energy Coast and Environment Building, Nicholson Extension Drive, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 (United States)

    2010-01-15

    During August and September 2008, Hurricanes Gustav and Ike passed through the Gulf of Mexico and damaged and destroyed a number of offshore oil and gas structures. In the final official government assessment, a total of 60 platforms were destroyed and 31 structures were identified as having extensive damage. The destroyed platforms were responsible for about 1.6% of the oil and 2.5% of the gas produced daily in the Gulf of Mexico and represented approximately 234 million BOE of reserves valued between 4.6 and 10.9 billion. Although the number of structures destroyed by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike was half the total destruction from the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons, we estimate that the reserves at risk are approximately three times more valuable. Each destroyed structure is unique in its production capacity and damages incurred and are a candidate for redevelopment. We review pre-hurricane production and revenue characteristics for the collection of destroyed structures and estimate production at risk. Gas structures are expected to present better economics and redevelopment potential than oil structures, and we predict that 198 million BOE, or nearly 95% of reserves-in-place, are likely to be redeveloped. Shut-in production statistics are compared against recent hurricane events and general comments on the factors involved in decision making are presented. (author)

  2. Investigation of Renal Cell Carcinoma by Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound- Predictive Value of Time Intensity Curve Analysis in Establishing Local Tumor Invasion and Stage: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamas-Szora, Attila; Socaciu, Mihai; Crișan, Nicolae; Dobrotă, Florentin; Prunduș, Paul; Bungărdean, Cătălina; Buruian, Mircea; Coman, Ioan; Opincariu, Iulian; Badea, Radu

    2015-07-01

    Contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) allows for real-time examination of signal intensity changes in a region of interest (ROI) and quantification of contrast agent kinetics. This study assessed the predictive ability of time-intensity curve (TIC) parameters for local tumor invasion and T stage of renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Renal tumors in 41 patients were examined by CEUS. Thirty-two met the inclusion criteria, with a total of 33 tumors (27 clear cell, 4 chromophobe, and 2 papillary type I). Nineteen (57.6%) tumors were included in group A (stages pT1 and pT2) and 14 (42.4%) in group B (stage pT3). ROIs were established as: whole tumor (TuW); tumor area with the highest signal intensity (TuMAX) and renal cortex (Ref). The TIC param­eters for each ROI were calculated as below: peak signal intensity, time to peak (TTP), rise time (RT), and mean transit time (MTT). They were analyzed as a whole value for each ROI and as a ratio between the different ROIs. There were significant differences between the tumors invading and not invading the renal sinus fat for TTP (TuW/Ref) [0.98 (0.67-1.25) vs. 1.18 (1.08-1.3), P 0.91. TIC parameters were predictors of locally noninvasive and invasive RCC.

  3. Can Sarcopenia Quantified by Ultrasound of the Rectus Femoris Muscle Predict Adverse Outcome of Surgical Intensive Care Unit Patients as well as Frailty? A Prospective, Observational Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Noomi; Murthy, Sushila; Tainter, Christopher R; Lee, Jarone; Riddell, Kathleen; Fintelmann, Florian J; Grabitz, Stephanie D; Timm, Fanny P; Levi, Benjamin; Kurth, Tobias; Eikermann, Matthias

    2016-12-01

    To compare sarcopenia and frailty for outcome prediction in surgical intensive care unit (SICU) patients. Frailty has been associated with adverse outcomes and describes a status of muscle weakness and decreased physiological reserve leading to increased vulnerability to stressors. However, frailty assessment depends on patient cooperation. Sarcopenia can be quantified by ultrasound and the predictive value of sarcopenia at SICU admission for adverse outcome has not been defined. We conducted a prospective, observational study of SICU patients. Sarcopenia was diagnosed by ultrasound measurement of rectus femoris cross-sectional area. Frailty was diagnosed by the Frailty Index Questionnaire based on 50 variables. Relationship between variables and outcomes was assessed by multivariable regression analysis NCT02270502. Sarcopenia and frailty were quantified in 102 patients and observed in 43.1% and 38.2%, respectively. Sarcopenia predicted adverse discharge disposition (discharge to nursing facility or in-hospital mortality, odds ratio 7.49; 95% confidence interval 1.47-38.24; P = 0.015) independent of important clinical covariates, as did frailty (odds ratio 8.01; 95% confidence interval 1.82-35.27; P = 0.006); predictive ability did not differ between sarcopenia and frailty prediction model, reflected by χ values of 21.74 versus 23.44, respectively, and a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of -0.02 (P = 0.87). Sarcopenia and frailty predicted hospital length of stay and the frailty model had a moderately better predictive accuracy for this outcome. Bedside diagnosis of sarcopenia by ultrasound predicts adverse discharge disposition in SICU patients equally well as frailty. Sarcopenia assessed by ultrasound may be utilized as rapid beside modality for risk stratification of critically ill patients.

  4. Rediscovering community--reflections after Hurricane Sandy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    See, Sharon

    2013-01-01

    Hoboken, New Jersey, is a town of 50,000 residents located across the Hudson River from New York City. Most of Hoboken's infrastructure was compromised during Hurricane Sandy as a result of flooding and power outages that rendered many businesses inoperable, including all of the pharmacies in town. Despite a focus on emergency preparedness since Hurricane Katrina and 9/11, there were no contingencies in place to facilitate and assess the medication needs of the community in the event of a natural disaster. This essay describes how the author rediscovered the meaning of community, and through working with colleagues in other health care disciplines and non-health care volunteers, provided care to patients in suboptimal circumstances.

  5. Hurricane damaged fixed platforms and wellhead structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shuttleworth, E.P.; Frieze, P.A.

    1998-03-01

    The objective of this study was to review data on damages to offshore platforms with a view to determining their suitability for further exploitation and analysis through a preliminary assessment of trends in the data when viewed from a risk standpoint. To realise this objective, a database on hurricane and other storm related damages was generated and past design practice, particularly concerning environmental load levels, was established. Information was gathered on extreme wave heights, damages, platform details, pushover analyses and structural frame load tests. The information was obtained through: a literature survey of journals, conference proceedings, design codes and guidelines; approaches to organisations in the offshore industry with significant experience of hurricanes, storm-damaged structures and pushover analyses; and interrogation of three major databases on offshore storm and other damages - PMB, MMS and WOAD. (author)

  6. THE EFFECT OF INTENSIVE GLYCEMIC CONTROL ON THE FACTORS DETERMINING PREDICTION COMPLICATIONS OF ACUTE MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION IN PATIENTS WITH TYPE 2 DIABETES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Fedotova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To determine predictors of complications of myocardial infarction (MI in patients with type 2 diabetes (2TDM and it’s value of intensive glycemic control during insulin infusion.Methods. The study included 112 patients with MI and 2TDM at first day of hospital admission with blood glucose level above 7.8 mmol/l. Prognosis of combined study endpoint included the death and ma-jor complications of MI for the hospital and long-term (6-month stages. The statistical analysis was per-formed (Statistica 6.0 for Windows. The predictive value was assessed with ROC-curves analysis meth-od.Results. Intensive glycemic control with insulin infusion reduced the activity of lipid peroxidation and improve prediction of study endpoint. Predictors of adverse hospital prognosis of MI in association with type 2 diabetes were hyperglycemia on admission above 10 mmol/l, and increase of C-peptide. The in-crease of C-peptide in the 1st and 7th day, hs-CRP on day 1, diene conjugates on the 7th day and glucose level on admission above 8.9 mmol/l (patients without 2TDM and 14.3 mmol/l (patients with 2TDM had the 6-month predictive value.Conclusion. The strict achievement of the target level of glucose in acute MI improves it’s prognosis at the hospital and at a 6-month prospective study.

  7. Mapping the spatial patterns of field traffic and traffic intensity to predict soil compaction risks at the field scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duttmann, Rainer; Kuhwald, Michael; Nolde, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Soil compaction is one of the main threats to cropland soils in present days. In contrast to easily visible phenomena of soil degradation, soil compaction, however, is obscured by other signals such as reduced crop yield, delayed crop growth, and the ponding of water, which makes it difficult to recognize and locate areas impacted by soil compaction directly. Although it is known that trafficking intensity is a key factor for soil compaction, until today only modest work has been concerned with the mapping of the spatially distributed patterns of field traffic and with the visual representation of the loads and pressures applied by farm traffic within single fields. A promising method for for spatial detection and mapping of soil compaction risks of individual fields is to process dGPS data, collected from vehicle-mounted GPS receivers and to compare the soil stress induced by farm machinery to the load bearing capacity derived from given soil map data. The application of position-based machinery data enables the mapping of vehicle movements over time as well as the assessment of trafficking intensity. It also facilitates the calculation of the trafficked area and the modeling of the loads and pressures applied to soil by individual vehicles. This paper focuses on the modeling and mapping of the spatial patterns of traffic intensity in silage maize fields during harvest, considering the spatio-temporal changes in wheel load and ground contact pressure along the loading sections. In addition to scenarios calculated for varying mechanical soil strengths, an example for visualizing the three-dimensional stress propagation inside the soil will be given, using the Visualization Toolkit (VTK) to construct 2D or 3D maps supporting to decision making due to sustainable field traffic management.

  8. Complicated grief associated with hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shear, M Katherine; McLaughlin, Katie A; Ghesquiere, Angela; Gruber, Michael J; Sampson, Nancy A; Kessler, Ronald C

    2011-08-01

    Although losses are important consequences of disasters, few epidemiological studies of disasters have assessed complicated grief (CG) and none assessed CG associated with losses other than death of loved one. Data come from the baseline survey of the Hurricane Katrina Community Advisory Group, a representative sample of 3,088 residents of the areas directly affected by Hurricane Katrina. A brief screen for CG was included containing four items consistent with the proposed DSM-V criteria for a diagnosis of bereavement-related adjustment disorder. Fifty-eight and half percent of respondents reported a significant hurricane-related loss: Most-severe losses were 29.0% tangible, 9.5% interpersonal, 8.1% intangible, 4.2% work/financial, and 3.7% death of loved one. Twenty-six point one percent respondents with significant loss had possible CG and 7.0% moderate-to-severe CG. Death of loved one was associated with the highest conditional probability of moderate-to-severe CG (18.5%, compared to 1.1-10.5% conditional probabilities for other losses), but accounted for only 16.5% of moderate-to-severe CG due to its comparatively low prevalence. Most moderate-to-severe CG was due to tangible (52.9%) or interpersonal (24.0%) losses. Significant predictors of CG were mostly unique to either bereavement (racial-ethnic minority status, social support) or other losses (prehurricane history of psychopathology, social competence.). Nonbereavement losses accounted for the vast majority of hurricane-related possible CG despite risk of CG being much higher in response to bereavement than to other losses. This result argues for expansion of research on CG beyond bereavement and alerts clinicians to the need to address postdisaster grief associated with a wide range of losses. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  9. Accurate Predictions of Mean Geomagnetic Dipole Excursion and Reversal Frequencies, Mean Paleomagnetic Field Intensity, and the Radius of Earth's Core Using McLeod's Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voorhies, Coerte V.; Conrad, Joy

    1996-01-01

    The geomagnetic spatial power spectrum R(sub n)(r) is the mean square magnetic induction represented by degree n spherical harmonic coefficients of the internal scalar potential averaged over the geocentric sphere of radius r. McLeod's Rule for the magnetic field generated by Earth's core geodynamo says that the expected core surface power spectrum (R(sub nc)(c)) is inversely proportional to (2n + 1) for 1 less than n less than or equal to N(sub E). McLeod's Rule is verified by locating Earth's core with main field models of Magsat data; the estimated core radius of 3485 kn is close to the seismologic value for c of 3480 km. McLeod's Rule and similar forms are then calibrated with the model values of R(sub n) for 3 less than or = n less than or = 12. Extrapolation to the degree 1 dipole predicts the expectation value of Earth's dipole moment to be about 5.89 x 10(exp 22) Am(exp 2)rms (74.5% of the 1980 value) and the expected geomagnetic intensity to be about 35.6 (mu)T rms at Earth's surface. Archeo- and paleomagnetic field intensity data show these and related predictions to be reasonably accurate. The probability distribution chi(exp 2) with 2n+1 degrees of freedom is assigned to (2n + 1)R(sub nc)/(R(sub nc). Extending this to the dipole implies that an exceptionally weak absolute dipole moment (less than or = 20% of the 1980 value) will exist during 2.5% of geologic time. The mean duration for such major geomagnetic dipole power excursions, one quarter of which feature durable axial dipole reversal, is estimated from the modern dipole power time-scale and the statistical model of excursions. The resulting mean excursion duration of 2767 years forces us to predict an average of 9.04 excursions per million years, 2.26 axial dipole reversals per million years, and a mean reversal duration of 5533 years. Paleomagnetic data show these predictions to be quite accurate. McLeod's Rule led to accurate predictions of Earth's core radius, mean paleomagnetic field

  10. Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glantz, M. H.

    2008-04-01

    By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time. Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region. The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1). Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on the order of 20 feet or so. The Ninth Ward, heavily

  11. Coastal Change During Hurricane Isabel 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Karen

    2009-01-01

    On September 18, 2003, Hurricane Isabel made landfall on the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina. At the U.S. Army Corps of Engineer's Field Research Facility in Duck, 125 km north of where the eyewall cut across Hatteras Island, the Category 2 storm generated record conditions for the 27 years of monitoring. The storm produced an 8.1 m high wave measured at a waverider buoy in 20 m of water and a 1.5 m storm surge. As part of a program to document and better understand the changes in vulnerability of the Nation's coasts to extreme storms, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), surveyed the impact zone of Hurricane Isabel. Methods included pre- and post-storm photography, videography, and lidar. Hurricane Isabel caused extensive erosion and overwash along the Outer Banks near Cape Hatteras, including the destruction of houses, the erosion of protective sand dunes, and the creation of island breaches. The storm eroded beaches and dunes in Frisco and Hatteras Village, southwest of the Cape. Overwash deposits covered roads and filled homes with sand. The most extensive beach changes were associated with the opening of a new breach about 500 m wide that divided into three separate channels that completely severed the island southwest of Cape Hatteras. The main breach, and a smaller one several kilometers to the south (not shown), occurred at minima in both island elevation and island width.

  12. Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Glantz

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time.

    Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region.

    The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1.

    Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on

  13. 14NH_3 Line Positions and Intensities in the Far-Infrared Comparison of Ft-Ir Measurements to Empirical Hamiltonian Model Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Keeyoon; Yu, Shanshan; Pearson, John; Pirali, Olivier; Kwabia Tchana, F.; Manceron, Laurent

    2016-06-01

    We have analyzed multiple spectra of high purity (99.5%) normal ammonia sample recorded at room temperatures using the FT-IR and AILES beamline at Synchrotron SOLEIL, France. More than 2830 line positions and intensities are measured for the inversion-rotation and rovibrational transitions in the 50 - 660 wn region. Quantum assignments were made for 2047 transitions from eight bands including four inversion-rotation bands (gs(a-s), νb{2}(a-s), 2νb{2}(a-s), and νb{4}(a-s)) and four ro-vibrational bands (νb{2} - gs, 2νb{2} - gs, νb{4} - νb{2}, and 2νb{2} -νb{4}), as well as covering more than 300 lines of ΔK = 3 forbidden transitions. Out of the eight bands, we note that 2νb{2} - νb{4} has not been listed in the HITRAN 2012 database. The measured line positions for the assigned transitions are in an excellent agreement (typically better than 0.001 wn) with the predictions from the empirical Hamiltonian model [S. Yu, J.C. Pearson, B.J. Drouin, et al.(2010)] in a wide range of J and K for all the eight bands. The comparison with the HITRAN 2012 database is also satisfactory, although systematic offsets are seen for transitions with high J and K and those from weak bands. However, differences of 20% or so are seen in line intensities for allowed transitions between the measurements and the model predictions, depending on the bands. We have also noticed that most of the intensity outliers in the Hamiltonian model predictions belong to transitions from gs(a-s) band. We present the final results of the FT-IR measurements of line positions and intensities, and their comparisons to the model predictions and the HITRAN 2012 database. Research described in this paper was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and California Institute of Technology, under contracts and cooperative agreements with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

  14. Predictive validity and reliability of the Turkish version of the risk assessment pressure sore scale in intensive care patients: results of a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Günes, Ülkü Yapucu; Efteli, Elçin

    2015-04-01

    Multiple pressure ulcer (PU) risk assessment instruments have been developed and tested, but there is no general consensus on which instrument to use for specific patient populations and care settings. The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability and predictive validity of the Turkish version of the Risk Assessment Pressure Sore (RAPS) instrument, which includes 12 variables--5 from the modified Norton Scale, 3 from the Braden Scale, and 3 from other research results--for use in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The English version of the RAPS instrument was translated into Turkish and tested for internal consistency and predictive validity (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value) using a convenience sample of 122 patients consecutively admitted to an ICU unit in Turkey. The patients were assessed within 24 hours of admission, and after that, once a week until the development of a PU or discharge from the unit. The incidence of PUs in this population was 23%. The majority of ulcers that developed were Stage I. Internal consistency of the RAPS tool was adequate (Cronbach's α = 0.81). The best balance between sensitivity and specificity for ICU patients was reached at a cut-off point of ≤ 27 (ie, sensitivity = 74.2%, specificity = 31.8%, positive predictive value = 38.7%, and negative predictive value 91.3%). This is lower than the cut-off point reported in other studies of the RAPS scale. In this population of ICU patients, the RAPS scale was found to have acceptable reliability and poor validity. Additional studies to evaluate the predictive validity and reliability of the RAPS scale in other patient populations and care settings are needed.

  15. Intensive serial biomarker profiling for the prediction of neutropenic fever in patients with hematologic malignancies undergoing chemotherapy: a pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven M. Chan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Neutropenic fever (NF is a life-threatening complication of myelosuppressive chemotherapy in patients with hematologic malignancies and triggers the administration of broad-spectrum antimicrobials. The ability to accurately predict NF would permit initiation of antimicrobials earlier in the course of infection with the goal of decreasing morbid complications and progression to septic shock and death. Changes in the blood level of inflammatory biomarkers may precede the occurrence of NF. To identify potential biomarkers for the prediction of NF, we performed serial meas- urements of nine biomarkers [C-reactive protein (CRP, protein C, interleukin (IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-1β, tumor necrosis factor-α, monocyte chemotactic protein-1, and intercellular adhesion molecule-1] using a multiplex ELISA array platform every 6-8 hours in patients undergoing myelosuppressive chemotherapy for hematologic malignancies. We found that the blood levels of IL-6 and CRP increased significantly 24 to 48 hours prior to the onset of fever. In addition, we showed that frequent biomarker monitoring is feasible using a bedside micro sample test device. The results of this pilot study suggest that serial monitoring of IL-6 and CRP levels using a bedside device may be useful in the prediction of NF. Prospective studies involving a larger cohort of patients to validate this observation are warranted. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01144793.

  16. Development of an Open-Heart Intraoperative Risk Scoring Model for Predicting a Prolonged Intensive Care Unit Stay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sirirat Tribuddharat

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Based on a pilot study with 34 patients, applying the modified sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA score intraoperatively could predict a prolonged ICU stay, albeit with only 4 risk factors. Our objective was to develop a practicable intraoperative model for predicting prolonged ICU stay which included more relevant risk factors. Methods. An extensive literature review identified 6 other intraoperative risk factors affecting prolonged ICU stay. Another 168 patients were then recruited for whom all 10 risk factors were extracted and analyzed by logistic regression to form the new prognostic model. Results. The multivariate logistic regression analysis retained only 6 significant risk factors in the model: age ≥ 60 years, PaO2/FiO2 ratio ≤ 200 mmHg, platelet count ≤ 120,000/mm3, requirement for inotrope/vasopressor ≥ 2 drugs, serum potassium ≤ 3.2 mEq/L, and atrial fibrillation grading ≥2. This model was then simplified into the Open-Heart Intraoperative Risk (OHIR score, comprising the same 6 risk factors for a total score of 7—a score of ≥3 indicating a likely prolonged ICU stay (AUC for ROC of 0.746. Conclusions. We developed a new, easy to calculate OHIR scoring system for predicting prolonged ICU stay as early as 3 hours after CPB. It comprises 6 risk factors, 5 of which can be manipulated intraoperatively.

  17. Model-based scaling and prediction of the streamwise energy intensity in high-Reynolds number turbulent channels

    CERN Document Server

    Moarref, Rashad; Tropp, Joel A; McKeon, Beverley J

    2013-01-01

    We study the Reynolds number scaling of a gain-based, low-rank approximation to turbulent channel flows, determined by the resolvent formulation of McKeon & Sharma (2010), in order to obtain a description of the streamwise turbulence intensity from direct consideration of the Navier-Stokes equations. Under this formulation, the velocity field is decomposed into propagating waves (with single streamwise and spanwise wavelengths and wave speed) whose wall-normal shapes are determined from the principal singular function of the corresponding resolvent operator. We establish that the resolvent formulation admits three classes of wave parameters that induce universal behavior with Reynolds number on the low-rank model, and which are consistent with scalings proposed throughout the wall turbulence literature. For the rank-1 model subject to broadband forcing, the integrated streamwise energy density takes a universal form which is consistent with the dominant near-wall turbulent motions. When the shape of the f...

  18. Predictive Performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and the Initial Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) Score in Acutely Ill Intensive Care Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Granholm, Anders; Møller, Morten Hylander; Kragh, Mette

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Severity scores including the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score are used in intensive care units (ICUs) to assess disease severity, predict mortality and in research. We aimed to assess the predictive performance of SAPS II...... compared the discrimination of SAPS II and initial SOFA scores, compared the discrimination of SAPS II in our cohort with the original cohort, assessed the calibration of SAPS II customised to our cohort, and compared the discrimination for 90-day mortality vs. in-hospital mortality for both scores....... Discrimination was evaluated using areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROC). Calibration was evaluated using Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness-of-fit Ĉ-statistic. RESULTS: AUROC for in-hospital mortality was 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77-0.83) for SAPS II and 0.73 (95% CI 0...

  19. Hurricane Katrina-related maternal stress, maternal mental health, and early infant temperament

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tees, Michael T.; Xiong, Xu; Buekens, Pierre; Pridjian, Gabriella; Elkind-Hirsch, Karen

    2012-01-01

    To investigate temperament in infants whose mothers were exposed to Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath, and to determine if high hurricane exposure is associated with difficult infant temperament. A prospective cohort study of women giving birth in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, LA (n=288) in 2006–2007 was conducted. Questionnaires and interviews assessed the mother’s experiences during the hurricane, living conditions, and psychological symptoms, two months and 12 months postpartum. Infant temperament characteristics were reported by the mother using the activity, adaptability, approach, intensity, and mood scales of the Early Infant and Toddler Temperament Questionnaires, and “difficult temperament” was defined as scoring in the top quartile for three or more of the scales. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between hurricane experience, mental health, and infant temperament. Serious experiences of the hurricane did not strongly increase the risk of difficult infant temperament (association with 3 or more serious experiences of the hurricane: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63–3.58 at 2 months; 0.58, 0.15–2.28 at 12 months). Maternal mental health was associated with report of difficult infant temperament, with women more likely to report having a difficult infant temperament at one year if they had screened positive for PTSD (aOR 1.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61–5.41), depression, (aOR 3.16, 95% CI 1.22–8.20) or hostility (aOR 2.17, 95% CI 0.81–5.82) at 2 months. Large associations between maternal stress due to a natural disaster and infant temperament were not seen, but maternal mental health was associated with reporting difficult temperament. Further research is needed to determine the effects of maternal exposure to disasters on child temperament, but in order to help babies born in the aftermath of disaster, the focus may need to be on the mother’s mental health. PMID:19554438

  20. Impact of Hurricanes and Nor'easters on a Migrating Inlet System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, J.; Elgar, S.; Raubenheimer, B.

    2016-12-01

    After breaching in 2007, Katama Inlet, connecting Katama Bay to the Atlantic Ocean on the south shore of Martha's Vineyard, MA, migrated 2 km until it closed in 2015. Bathymetric surveys before and after Hurricanes Irene (2011) and Sandy (2012) indicate the strong waves and currents associated with these storms caused 2 m of erosion and deposition around the inlet mouth. The waves, currents, and bathymetric change observed during the hurricanes were used to validate the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic components of a Delft3D numerical model of the Martha's Vineyard coastline for storm (> 3 m wave heights) conditions. When driven with observed bathymetry and offshore waves, as well as simulated (WaveWatch3) winds and barometric pressures, the model reproduces the pattern and range of bathymetric change observed around the inlet. Model simulations of realistic (i.e., Irene and Sandy) and idealized storm conditions with a range of durations and wave conditions are used to test the relative importance of short-duration, high-intensity storms (hurricanes) and longer-duration, lower-intensity storms (nor'easters) on inlet migration. The simulations suggest that longer-duration, lower-intensity storms cause a higher range and variance in bathymetric change around the inlet than shorter-duration, higher-intensity storms. However, the simulations also suggest that the storm-induced migration of the inlet depends more on the wave direction at the peak of the storm than on the duration of the storm peak. The effect of storms on inlet migration over yearly time scales will be discussed. Funded by NSF, NOAA, ONR, and ASD(R&E).

  1. A Statistical Approach For Modeling Tropical Cyclones. Synthetic Hurricanes Generator Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-11

    This manuscript brie y describes a statistical ap- proach to generate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks to be used in risk evaluations. The Synthetic Hur- ricane Generator (SynHurG) model allows model- ing hurricane risk in the United States supporting decision makers and implementations of adaptation strategies to extreme weather. In the literature there are mainly two approaches to model hurricane hazard for risk prediction: deterministic-statistical approaches, where the storm key physical parameters are calculated using physi- cal complex climate models and the tracks are usually determined statistically from historical data; and sta- tistical approaches, where both variables and tracks are estimated stochastically using historical records. SynHurG falls in the second category adopting a pure stochastic approach.

  2. Effects of the Representation of Convection on the Modelling of Hurricane Tomas (2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene Marras

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The cumulus parameterization is widely recognised as a crucial factor in tropical meteorology: this paper intends to shed further light on the effects of convection parameterization on tropical cyclones’ numerical predictions in the “grey zone” (10–1 km grid spacing. Ten experiments are devised by combining five different convection treatments over the innermost, 5 km grid spacing, domain, and two different global circulation model datasets (IFS and ERA-Interim. All ten experiments are finally analysed and compared to observations provided by the National Hurricane Center’s best track record and multisatellite rainfall measurements. Results manifestly point to the superiority of employing no convective parameterization at the scale of 5 km versus the usage of any of those provided by WRF to reproduce the case study of Hurricane Tomas, which hit the Lesser Antilles and Greater Antilles in late October and early November 2010.

  3. Change in self-esteem predicts depressive symptoms at follow-up after intensive multimodal psychotherapy for major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinger, Ulrike; Ehrenthal, Johannes C; Nikendei, Christoph; Schauenburg, Henning

    2017-01-08

    Reduced self-esteem is a core symptom of depression, but few studies have investigated within-treatment change of self-esteem as a predictor of long-term outcome in depression. This study investigated change in self-esteem during 8 weeks of multimodal, psychodynamically oriented psychotherapy for 40 depressed patients and tested whether it would predict outcome 6 months after termination. Data was drawn from a randomized clinical pilot trial on day-clinic versus inpatient psychotherapy for depression. Findings supported the association between change in self-esteem and follow-up depression severity, even when controlling for within-treatment symptom change. Change in self-esteem was not related to overall symptoms and interpersonal problems at follow-up. Thus, change in self-esteem may be an important variable in preventing relapse for depression. Self-esteem is related to depressive symptoms and interpersonal problems. Improvement of self-esteem during psychotherapy correlates with improvements of symptoms and interpersonal problems. Change of self-esteem during psychotherapy predicts depressive symptoms 6 months after termination of therapy. When treating depressed patients, psychotherapists should work towards an improvement of self-esteem in order to prevent relapse. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Higher Precision of Heart Rate Compared with VO2 to Predict Exercise Intensity in Endurance-Trained Runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, Victor M; den Tillaar, Roland Van; Marques, Mario C

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to assess the precision of oxygen uptake with heart rate regression during track running in highly-trained runners. Twelve national and international level male long-distance road runners (age 30.7 ± 5.5 yrs, height 1.71 ± 0.04 m and mass 61.2 ± 5.8 kg) with a personal best on the half marathon of 62 min 37 s ± 1 min 22 s participated in the study. Each participant performed, in an all-weather synthetic track five, six min bouts at constant velocity with each bout at an increased running velocity. The starting velocity was 3.33 m·s(-1) with a 0.56 m·s(-1) increase on each subsequent bout. VO2 and heart rate were measured during the runs and blood lactate was assessed immediately after each run. Mean peak VO2 and mean peak heart rate were, respectively, 76.2 ± 9.7 mL·kg(-1)·min(-1) and 181 ± 13 beats·min(-1). The linearity of the regressions between heart rate, running velocity and VO2 were all very high (r > 0.99) with small standard errors of regression (i.e. Sy.x heart rate, running velocity and VO2 found in this study show that, in highly trained runners, it is possible to have heart rate as an accurate indicator of energy demand and of the running speed. Therefore, in this subject cohort it may be unnecessary to use VO2 to track changes in the subjects' running economy during training periods. Key pointsHeart rate is used in the control of exercise intensity in endurance sports.However, few studies have quantified the precision of its relationship with oxygen uptake in highly trained runners.We evaluated twelve elite half-marathon runners during track running at various intensities and established three regressions: oxygen uptake / heart rate; heart rate / running velocity and oxygen uptake / running velocity.The three regressions presented, respectively, imprecision of 4,2%, 2,75% and 4,5% at the velocity associated with the 4 mmol·L(-1) threshold.The results of the present study show that, in highly trained runners

  5. “梅花”台风路径与强度的集合预报%Ensemble prediction of typhoon Muifa’s track and intensity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王晨稀

    2014-01-01

    for typhoon Muifa (1109) in 2011. Three kinds of ensemble schemes are designed for the experiments. Every scheme has six ensemble members, which reflect the uncertainty of the model. The method of multiple physics (MP) is used to form the members of scheme 1. The method of stochastic total tendency perturbation (STTP) is used to form the members of scheme 3. Both the MP method and the STTP method are used to form the members of scheme 2. Thirty-six experiments are made and the integration time is 72 h. The experiment results are as follows. In the three ensemble schemes, the track prediction of scheme 3 is the best, that of scheme 2 is the second, and that of scheme 1 is the worst. The intensity prediction of scheme 1 is close to that of scheme 2. They are both much better than that of scheme 3. The track and intensity predictions of scheme 2 and scheme 3 are better than those of their control experiments. The track prediction of scheme 1 is better than that of its most members. The intensity prediction of scheme 1 is better than that of all of its members. The track dispersions of the three schemes are all small. In the three schemes, the track dispersion of scheme 3 is the smallest and that of scheme 2 is the second. They are both very small. The intensity dispersion of scheme 3 is also too small and is the smallest in the three schemes. In the early integration, the intensity dispersions of scheme 1 and scheme 2 are obviously small. In the late part of the integration, they are overall a little large. The intensity dispersion of scheme 2 is larger than that of scheme 1. Compared with the predictions of the eight domestic and abroad operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the track prediction of scheme 1 is better than that of five operational models, and the track predictions of scheme 2 and scheme 3 are better than that of seven operational models (not including the ECMWF). The intensity predictions of scheme 1 and scheme 2 are better than that of

  6. Nasal colonization of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA does not predict subsequent infection in the intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fisseha Ghidey

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Hospital acquired infections with Staphylococcus aureus; especially methicillin resistant S. aureus (MRSA is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. The aim of this study was compare the rates of MRSA infections between MRSA colonized and not-colonized patients. A retrospective, electronic and paper chart review of all adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU from 2007 to 2010 was screened for MRSA. Endpoints were pyogenic pneumonia, sepsis, endocarditis, skin and soft tissue infections, osteomyelitis and septic arthritis. Patients who were not screened for MRSA were excluded from the study. A total of 1203 patients were admitted and screened for MRSA colonization on admission to the ICU from 2007 to 2010. Two main groups were made for between colonized and not-colonized based on MRSA screening. Fifty-seven (57 positive colonized and 122 not-colonized patients' charts were randomly selected. The mean age of the study population was 61.7 ± 18.4 (range, 19–94; there were 80 (44.69% males and 99 (55.31% females. The occurrence of infection with MRSA with either lower respiratory tract infection or blood stream infection identified on the time of ICU admission was similar for patients with and without MRSA nasal colonization 3.51% vs. 2.46%; p = 0.459. There was no observed difference in the rates of MRSA infection between those who tested colonized and not-colonized.

  7. Lessons from Hurricane Sandy: a community response in Brooklyn, New York.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmeltz, Michael T; González, Sonia K; Fuentes, Liza; Kwan, Amy; Ortega-Williams, Anna; Cowan, Lisa Pilar

    2013-10-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased in recent decades; one example is Hurricane Sandy. If the frequency and severity continue or increase, adaptation and mitigation efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations and improve daily life under changed weather conditions. This field report examines the devastation due to Hurricane Sandy experienced in Red Hook, Brooklyn, New York, a neighborhood consisting of geographically isolated low-lying commercial and residential units, with a concentration of low-income housing, and disproportionate rates of poverty and poor health outcomes largely experienced by Black and Latino residents. Multiple sources of data were reviewed, including street canvasses, governmental reports, community flyers, and meeting transcripts, as well as firsthand observations by a local nonprofit Red Hook Initiative (RHI) and community members, and social media accounts of the effects of Sandy and the response to daily needs. These data are considered within existing theory, evidence, and practice on protecting public health during extreme weather events. Firsthand observations show that a community-based organization in Red Hook, RHI, was at the center of the response to disaster relief, despite the lack of staff training in response to events such as Hurricane Sandy. Review of these data underscores that adaptation and response to climate change and likely resultant extreme weather is a dynamic process requiring an official coordinated governmental response along with on-the-ground volunteer community responders.

  8. Impact of a major hurricane on surgical services in a university hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norcross, E D; Elliott, B M; Adams, D B; Crawford, F A

    1993-01-01

    Hurricane Hugo struck Charleston, South Carolina, on September 21, 1989. This report analyzes the impact this storm had upon surgical care at a university medical center. Although disaster planning began on September 17, hurricane damage by high winds and an 8.7-foot tidal surge led to loss of emergency power and water. Consequently, system failures occurred in air conditioning, vacuum suction, steam and ethylene oxide sterilization, plumbing, central paging, lighting, and refrigeration. The following surgical support services were affected. In the blood bank, lack of refrigeration meant no platelet packs for 2 days. In radiology, loss of electrical power damaged CT/MRI scanners and flooding ruined patient files, resulting in lost information. In the intensive care unit, loss of electricity meant no monitors and hand ventilation was used for 4 hours. In the operating room, lack of temperature and humidity control (steam, water, and suction supply) halted elective surgery until October 2. Ground and air transportation were limited by unsafe landing sites, impassable roads, and personnel exhaustion. Surgical planning for a major hurricane should include: 1) a fail-safe source of electrical power, 2) evacuation of as many critically ill patients as possible before the storm, 3) cancellation of all elective surgery, and 4) augmented ancillary service staffing with some, although limited, physician support.

  9. Gender differences in psychological reactions to Hurricane Sandy among New York Metropolitan Area residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamama-Raz, Yaira; Palgi, Yuval; Shrira, Amit; Goodwin, Robin; Kaniasty, Krzysztof; Ben-Ezra, Menachem

    2015-06-01

    Hurricane Sandy was a natural disaster of large proportions--a category 3 storm at its peak intensity that struck New York Metropolitan Area on October, 2012. The death and destruction caused by a hurricane can rise numerous of mental health vulnerabilities such as, acute stress disorder, posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety. Gender has been identified as one critical variable that can impact vulnerability to adverse effects of trauma, as well as how these reactions are managed. The present research provides an evaluation of gender differences regarding posttraumatic stress symptoms, recollections of national disasters and fears of future negative life events. It also aims to explore information seeking and sources of assistance that were utilized during Hurricane Sandy. An online survey sample of 1,000 people from New York Metropolitan Area completed a battery of self-report questionnaires four weeks after the storm. Results revealed that recollections of national disaster and fear of future events were found to be significantly different among women compared to men. Additionally, women were more inclined toward information seeking through Facebook than men, although no gender differences emerged when examining sources of support. The results indicate that disaster practitioners should tailor gender sensitive interventions.

  10. What controls early or late onset of tropical North Atlantic hurricane season?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, Heng; Li, Tim; Liu, Jia; Peng, Melinda

    2016-06-01

    The occurrence of first hurricane in early summer signifies the onset of an active Atlantic hurricane season. The interannual variation of this hurricane onset date is examined for the period 1979-2013. It is found that the onset date has a marked interannual variation. The standard deviation of the interannual variation of the onset day is 17.5 days, with the climatological mean onset happening on July 23. A diagnosis of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis potential index (GPI) indicates that the major difference between an early and a late onset group lies in the maximum potential intensity (MPI). A further diagnosis of the MPI shows that it is primarily controlled by the local SST anomaly (SSTA). Besides the SSTA, vertical shear and mid-tropospheric relative humidity anomalies also contribute significantly to the GPI difference between the early and late onset groups. It is found that the anomalous warm (cold) SST over the tropical Atlantic, while uncorrelated with the Niño3 index, persists from the preceding winter to concurrent summer in the early (late) onset group. The net surface heat flux anomaly always tends to damp the SSTA, which suggests that ocean dynamics may play a role in maintaining the SSTA in the tropical Atlantic. The SSTA pattern with a maximum center in northeastern tropical Atlantic appears responsible for generating the observed wind and moisture anomalies over the main TC development region. A further study is needed to understand the initiation mechanism of the SSTA in the Atlantic.

  11. Use of integrated analogue and numerical modelling to predict tridimensional fracture intensity in fault-related-folds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzati, Mattia; Cavozzi, Cristian; Magistroni, Corrado; Storti, Fabrizio

    2016-04-01

    Fracture density pattern predictions with low uncertainty is a fundamental issue for constraining fluid flow pathways in thrust-related anticlines in the frontal parts of thrust-and-fold belts and accretionary prisms, which can also provide plays for hydrocarbon exploration and development. Among the drivers that concur to determine the distribution of fractures in fold-and-thrust-belts, the complex kinematic pathways of folded structures play a key role. In areas with scarce and not reliable underground information, analogue modelling can provide effective support for developing and validating reliable hypotheses on structural architectures and their evolution. In this contribution, we propose a working method that combines analogue and numerical modelling. We deformed a sand-silicone multilayer to eventually produce a non-cylindrical thrust-related anticline at the wedge toe, which was our test geological structure at the reservoir scale. We cut 60 serial cross-sections through the central part of the deformed model to analyze faults and folds geometry using dedicated software (3D Move). The cross-sections were also used to reconstruct the 3D geometry of reference surfaces that compose the mechanical stratigraphy thanks to the use of the software GoCad. From the 3D model of the experimental anticline, by using 3D Move it was possible to calculate the cumulative stress and strain underwent by the deformed reference layers at the end of the deformation and also in incremental steps of fold growth. Based on these model outputs it was also possible to predict the orientation of three main fractures sets (joints and conjugate shear fractures) and their occurrence and density on model surfaces. The next step was the upscaling of the fracture network to the entire digital model volume, to create DFNs.

  12. Long-term response of Caribbean palm forests to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariel Lugo; J.L. Frangi

    2016-01-01

    We studied the response of Prestoea montana (Sierra Palm, hereafter Palm) brakes and a Palm floodplain forest to hurricanes in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Over a span of 78 years, 3 hurricanes passed over the study sites for which we have 64 years of measurements for Palm brakes and 20 years for the Palm floodplain forest. For each stand, species...

  13. Resilience of Professional Counselors Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Simone F.; Lawson, Gerard

    2013-01-01

    Professional counselors who provided services to those affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita completed the K6+ (screen for severe mental illness), the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory, and the Professional Quality of Life Scale. Results indicated that participants who survived the hurricanes had higher levels of posttraumatic growth than…

  14. The Business of Intimacy: Hurricanes and Howling Wolves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paley, Vivian

    2006-01-01

    The date is September 9, 2005. This article is set in a rural Wisconsin community, a thousand miles north of New Orleans, where Hurricane Katrina is about to make landfall. The four- and five- year- olds in Mrs. Olson's classroom have never experienced a hurricane or seen flood waters rise to cover the farms and houses they know, but they cannot…

  15. Resilience of Professional Counselors Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Simone F.; Lawson, Gerard

    2013-01-01

    Professional counselors who provided services to those affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita completed the K6+ (screen for severe mental illness), the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory, and the Professional Quality of Life Scale. Results indicated that participants who survived the hurricanes had higher levels of posttraumatic growth than…

  16. Teacher Guidelines for Helping Students after a Hurricane

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Child Traumatic Stress Network, 2013

    2013-01-01

    Being in a hurricane can be very frightening, and the days, weeks, and months following the storm can be very stressful. Most families recover over time, especially with the support of relatives, friends, and their community. But different families may have different experiences during and after a hurricane, and how long it takes them to recover…

  17. Post-hurricane forest damage assessment using satellite remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Wang; J.J. Qu; X. Hao; Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf

    2010-01-01

    This study developed a rapid assessment algorithm for post-hurricane forest damage estimation using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements. The performance of five commonly used vegetation indices as post-hurricane forest damage indicators was investigated through statistical analysis. The Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII) was...

  18. Mass Media Use by College Students during Hurricane Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piotrowski, Chris

    2015-01-01

    There is a dearth of studies on how college students prepare for the threat of natural disasters. This study surveyed college students' preferences in mass media use prior to an approaching hurricane. The convenience sample (n = 76) were from a university located in the hurricane-prone area of the central Gulf of Mexico coast. Interestingly,…

  19. Experience of Hurricane Katrina and Reported Intimate Partner Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harville, Emily W.; Taylor, Catherine A.; Tesfai, Helen; Xiong, Xu; Buekens, Pierre

    2011-01-01

    Intimate partner violence (IPV) has been associated with stress, but few studies have examined the effect of natural disaster on IPV. In this study, the authors examine the relationship between experience of Hurricane Katrina and reported relationship aggression and violence in a cohort of 123 postpartum women. Hurricane experience is measured…

  20. Retention of Displaced Students after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coco, Joshua Christian

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to investigate the strategies that university leaders implemented to improve retention of displaced students in the aftermaths of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The universities that participated in this study admitted displaced students after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. This study utilized a qualitative…