WorldWideScience

Sample records for hurricane damage risk

  1. Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning

    Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

  2. Post-hurricane forest damage assessment using satellite remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Wang; J.J. Qu; X. Hao; Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf

    2010-01-01

    This study developed a rapid assessment algorithm for post-hurricane forest damage estimation using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements. The performance of five commonly used vegetation indices as post-hurricane forest damage indicators was investigated through statistical analysis. The Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII) was...

  3. Hurricane Harvey Building Damage Assessment Using UAV Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeom, J.; Jung, J.; Chang, A.; Choi, I.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey which was extremely destructive major hurricane struck southern Texas, U.S.A on August 25, causing catastrophic flooding and storm damages. We visited Rockport suffered severe building destruction and conducted UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) surveying for building damage assessment. UAV provides very high resolution images compared with traditional remote sensing data. In addition, prompt and cost-effective damage assessment can be performed regardless of several limitations in other remote sensing platforms such as revisit interval of satellite platforms, complicated flight plan in aerial surveying, and cloud amounts. In this study, UAV flight and GPS surveying were conducted two weeks after hurricane damage to generate an orthomosaic image and a DEM (Digital Elevation Model). 3D region growing scheme has been proposed to quantitatively estimate building damages considering building debris' elevation change and spectral difference. The result showed that the proposed method can be used for high definition building damage assessment in a time- and cost-effective way.

  4. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Assessment of Risk of Cholera in Haiti following Hurricane Matthew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Rakib; Anwar, Rifat; Akanda, Shafqat; McDonald, Michael D; Huq, Anwar; Jutla, Antarpreet; Colwell, Rita

    2017-09-01

    Damage to the inferior and fragile water and sanitation infrastructure of Haiti after Hurricane Matthew has created an urgent public health emergency in terms of likelihood of cholera occurring in the human population. Using satellite-derived data on precipitation, gridded air temperature, and hurricane path and with information on water and sanitation (WASH) infrastructure, we tracked changing environmental conditions conducive for growth of pathogenic vibrios. Based on these data, we predicted and validated the likelihood of cholera cases occurring past hurricane. The risk of cholera in the southwestern part of Haiti remained relatively high since November 2016 to the present. Findings of this study provide a contemporary process for monitoring ground conditions that can guide public health intervention to control cholera in human population by providing access to vaccines, safe WASH facilities. Assuming current social and behavioral patterns remain constant, it is recommended that WASH infrastructure should be improved and considered a priority especially before 2017 rainy season.

  6. Hurricane Katrina winds damaged longleaf pine less than loblolly pine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt H. Johnsen; John R. Butnor; John S. Kush; Ronald C. Schmidtling; C. Dana. Nelson

    2009-01-01

    Some evidence suggests that longleaf pine might be more tolerant of high winds than either slash pine (Pinus elliotii Englem.) or loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.). We studied wind damage to these three pine species in a common garden experiment in southeast Mississippi following Hurricane Katrina,...

  7. Predicting hurricane wind damage by claim payout based on Hurricane Ike in Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Myong Kim

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasing occurrence of natural disasters and their related damage have led to a growing demand for models that predict financial loss. Although considerable research on the financial losses related to natural disasters has found significant predictors, there has been a lack of comprehensive study that addresses the relationship among vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and the economic losses of individual buildings. This study identifies the vulnerability indicators for hurricanes to establish a metric to predict the related financial loss. We classify hurricane-prone areas by highlighting the spatial distribution of losses and vulnerabilities. This study used a Geographical Information System (GIS to combine and produce spatial data and a multiple regression method to establish a wind damage prediction model. As the dependent variable, we used the value of the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA claim payout divided by the appraised values of the buildings to predict real economic loss. As independent variables, we selected a hurricane indicator and built environment vulnerability indicators. The model we developed can be used by government agencies and insurance companies to predict hurricane wind damage.

  8. Assessing Hurricane Katrina Vegetation Damage at Stennis Space Center using IKONOS Image Classification Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Ross, Kenton W.; Graham, William D.

    2007-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina hit southwestern Mississippi on August 29, 2005, at 9:45 a.m. CDT as a category 3 storm with surges up to approx. 9 m and sustained winds of approx. 120 mph. The hurricane's wind, rain, and flooding devastated several coastal towns, from New Orleans through Mobile. The storm also caused significant damage to infrastructure and vegetation of NASA's SSC (Stennis Space Center). Storm recovery at SSC involved not only repairs of critical infrastructure but also forest damage mitigation (via timber harvests and control burns to reduce fire risk). This presentation discusses an effort to use commercially available high spatial resolution multispectral IKONOS data for vegetation damage assessment, based on data collected over SSC on September 2, 2005.

  9. New Orleans Levees and Floodwalls: Hurricane Damage Protection

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Carter, Nicole T

    2005-01-01

    .... The breaches occurred at the Lake Pontchartrain and Vicinity Project being constructed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and maintained by local levee districts. Those observers questioning why infrastructure providing a greater level of hurricane protection was not available are countered by those arguing that structural protections carry their own risks. This report will be updated as needed to track significant developments.

  10. Hurricane risk management and climate information gatekeeping in southeast Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treuer, G.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical storms provide fresh water necessary for healthy economies and health ecosystems. Hurricanes, massive tropical storms, threaten catastrophic flooding and wind damage. Sea level rise exacerbates flooding risks from rain and storm surge for coastal communities. Climate change adaptation measures to manage this risk must be implemented locally, but actions at other levels of government and by neighboring communities impact the options available to local municipalities. When working on adaptation local decision makers must balance multiple types of risk: physical or scientifically described risks, legal risks, and political risks. Generating usable or actionable climate science is a goal of the academic climate community. To do this we need to expand our analysis to include types of risk that constrain the use of objective science. Integrating physical, legal, and political risks is difficult. Each requires specific expertise and uses unique language. An opportunity exists to study how local decision makers manage all three on a daily basis and how their risk management impacts climate resilience for communities and ecosystems. South Florida's particular vulnerabilities make it an excellent case study. Besides physical vulnerabilities (low elevation, intense coastal development, frequent hurricanes, compromised ecosystems) it also has unique legal and political challenges. Federal and state property rights protections create legal risks for government action that restricts land use to promote climate adaptation. Also, a lack of cases that deal with climate change creates uncertainty about the nature of these legal risks. Politically Florida is divided ideologically and geographically. The regions in the southeast which are most vulnerable are predominantly Hispanic and under-represented at the state level, where leadership on climate change is functionally nonexistent. It is conventional wisdom amongst water managers in Florida that little climate adaptation

  11. Water and erosion damage to coastal structures: South Carolina Coast, Hurricane Hugo, 1989

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Hsiang

    1990-01-01

    Hurricane Hugo hit U.S. Mainland on September 21, 1989 just north of Charleston, South Carolina. It was billed as the most costly hurricane on record. The loss on the mainland alone exceeded 7 billion dollars, more than 15,000 homes were destroyed and the loss of lives exceeded forty. This article documents one aspect of the multi-destructions caused by the hurricane - the water and erosion damage on water front or near water front properties. A general damage surve...

  12. Hurricane impacts on a pair of coastal forested watersheds: implications of selective hurricane damage to forest structure and streamflow dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayakaran, A. D.; Williams, T. M.; Ssegane, H.; Amatya, D. M.; Song, B.; Trettin, C. C.

    2014-03-01

    Hurricanes are infrequent but influential disruptors of ecosystem processes in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Every southeastern forested wetland has the potential to be struck by a tropical cyclone. We examined the impact of Hurricane Hugo on two paired coastal South Carolina watersheds in terms of streamflow and vegetation dynamics, both before and after the hurricane's passage in 1989. The study objectives were to quantify the magnitude and timing of changes including a reversal in relative streamflow difference between two paired watersheds, and to examine the selective impacts of a hurricane on the vegetative composition of the forest. We related these impacts to their potential contribution to change watershed hydrology through altered evapotranspiration processes. Using over 30 years of monthly rainfall and streamflow data we showed that there was a significant transformation in the hydrologic character of the two watersheds - a transformation that occurred soon after the hurricane's passage. We linked the change in the rainfall-runoff relationship to a catastrophic change in forest vegetation due to selective hurricane damage. While both watersheds were located in the path of the hurricane, extant forest structure varied between the two watersheds as a function of experimental forest management techniques on the treatment watershed. We showed that the primary damage was to older pines, and to some extent larger hardwood trees. We believe that lowered vegetative water use impacted both watersheds with increased outflows on both watersheds due to loss of trees following hurricane impact. However, one watershed was able to recover to pre hurricane levels of evapotranspiration at a quicker rate due to the greater abundance of pine seedlings and saplings in that watershed.

  13. Impact of Hurricane Iniki on native Hawaiian Acacia koa forests: damage and two-year recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin A. Harrington; James H. Fownes; Paul G. Scowcroft; Cheryl S. Vann

    1997-01-01

    Damage to Hawaiian Acacia koa forest by Hurricane Iniki was assessed by comparison with our previous measures of stand structure and leaf area index (LAI) at sites along a precipitation/elevation gradient on western Kauai. Reductions in LAI ranged from 29 to 80% and were correlated with pre-hurricane LAI and canopy height. The canopy damage...

  14. Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach

    OpenAIRE

    David Kelly; David Letson; Forest Nelson; David S. Nolan; Daniel Solis

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies how individuals update subjective risk perceptions in response to hurricane track forecast information, using a unique data set from an event market, the Hurricane Futures Market (HFM). We derive a theoretical Bayesian framework which predicts how traders update their perceptions of the probability of a hurricane making landfall in a certain range of coastline. Our results suggest that traders behave in a way consistent with Bayesian updating but this behavior is based on t...

  15. Geospatial relationships of tree species damage caused by Hurricane Katrina in south Mississippi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark W. Garrigues; Zhaofei Fan; David L. Evans; Scott D. Roberts; William H. Cooke III

    2012-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina generated substantial impacts on the forests and biological resources of the affected area in Mississippi. This study seeks to use classification tree analysis (CTA) to determine which variables are significant in predicting hurricane damage (shear or windthrow) in the Southeast Mississippi Institute for Forest Inventory District. Logistic regressions...

  16. Red-cockaded woodpecker cavity-tree damage by Hurricane Rita: an evaluation of contributing factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Bainbridge; Kristen A. Baum; Daniel Saenz; Cory K. Adams

    2011-01-01

    Picoides borealis (Red-cockaded Woodpecker) is an endangered species inhabiting pine savannas of the southeastern United States. Because the intensity of hurricanes striking the southeastern United States is likely to increase as global temperatures rise, it is important to identify factors contributing to hurricane damage to Red-cockaded Woodpecker cavity-trees. Our...

  17. Understanding household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information: evidence from survey responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Chiradip; Mozumder, Pallab

    2014-06-01

    Risk information is critical to adopting mitigation measures, and seeking risk information is influenced by a variety of factors. An essential component of the recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida is to provide homeowners with pertinent risk information to facilitate hurricane risk mitigation activities. We develop an analytical framework to understand household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information through allowing an intensive home inspection. An empirical analysis is used to identify major drivers of household preferences to receive personalized information regarding recommended hurricane risk mitigation measures. A variety of empirical specifications show that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow inspection to seek information. However, households with more members living in the home and households who live in manufactured/mobile homes are less likely to allow inspection. While findings imply MSFH program's ability to link incentives offered by private and public agencies in promoting mitigation, households that face a disproportionately higher level of risk can get priority to make the program more effective. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Hurricane Harvey: Infrastructure Damage Assessment of Texas' Central Gulf Coast Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, W. D.; Fovenyessy, S.; Patterson, S. F.

    2017-12-01

    We report a detailed ground-based damage survey for Hurricane Harvey, the first major hurricane to make landfall along the central Texas coast since the 1970 Category 3 Hurricane Celia. Harvey, a Category 4 storm, made landfall near Rockport, Texas on August 25th, 2017 at 10 PM local time. From September 2nd to 5th we visited Rockport and 22 nearby cities to assess the severity of the damage. Nearly all damage observed occurred as a direct result of the hurricane-force winds, rather than a storm surge. This observation is in contrast to the severe damage caused by both high winds and a significant storm surge, locally 3 to 5 m in height, in the 2013 Category 5 Hurricane Haiyan, that devastated the Philippines. We have adopted a damage scale and have given an average damage score for each of the areas investigated. Our damage contour map illustrates the areal variation in damage. The damage observed was widespread with a high degree of variability. Different types of damage included: (1) fallen fences and utility poles; (2) trees with branches broken or completely snapped in half; (3) business signs that were either partially or fully destroyed; (4) partially sunken or otherwise damaged boats; (5) and sheet metal sheds either completely or partially destroyed. There was also varying degrees of damage to both residential and commercial structures. Many homes had (6) roof damage, ranging from minor damage to complete destruction of the roof and second story, and (7) siding damage, where parts or whole sections of the homes siding had been removed. The area that had the lowest average damage score was Corpus Christi, and the areas that had the highest average damage score was both Fulton and Holiday Beach. There is no simple, uniform pattern of damage distribution. Rather, the damage was scattered, revealing hot spots of areas that received more damage than the surrounding area. However, when compared to the NOAA wind swath map, all of the damage was contained within

  19. Hurricane Risk Variability along the Gulf of Mexico Coastline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepanier, Jill C.; Ellis, Kelsey N.; Tucker, Clay S.

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran’s I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs. PMID:25767885

  20. Hurricane risk variability along the Gulf of Mexico coastline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepanier, Jill C; Ellis, Kelsey N; Tucker, Clay S

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran's I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs.

  1. Wind damage effects of Hurricane Andrew on mangrove communities along the southwest coast of Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, T.W.; Smith, T. J.; Robblee, M.B.

    1995-01-01

    On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew downed and defoliated an extensive swath of mangrove trees across the lower Florida peninsula. Permanent field sites were established to assess the extent of forest damage and to monitor the rate and process of forest recovery. Canopy trees suffered the highest mortality particularly for sites within and immediately north of the storm's eyewall. The type and extent of site damage, windthrow, branch loss, and defoliation generally decreased exponentially with increasing distance from the storm track. Forest damage was greater for sites in the storm's right quadrant than in the left quadrant tor the same given distance from the storm center. Stand exposure, both horizontally and vertically, increased the susceptibility and probability of forest damage and accounted for much of the local variability. Slight species differences were found. Laguncularia racemosa exceeded Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle in damage tendency under similar wind conditions. Azimuths of downed trees were strongly correlated with maximum wind speed and vector based on a hurricane simulation of the storm. Lateral branch loss and leaf defoliation on sites without windthrow damage indicated a degree of crown thinning and light penetration equivalent to treefall gaps under normally intact forest conditions. Mangrove species and forests are susceptible to catastrophic disturbance by hurricanes; the impacts of which are significant to changes in forest structure and function.

  2. Core damage risk indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to show a method for the fast recalculation of the PSA. To avoid the information loose, it is necessary to simplify the PSA models, or at least reorganize them. The method, introduced in this document, require that preparation, so we try to show, how to do that. This document is an introduction. This is the starting point of the work related to the development of the risk indicators. In the future, with the application of this method, we are going to show an everyday use of the PSA results to produce the indicators of the core damage risk. There are two different indicators of the plant safety performance, related to the core damage risk. The first is the core damage frequency indicator (CDFI), and the second is the core damage probability indicator (CDPI). Of course, we cannot describe all of the possible ways to use these indicators, rather we will try to introduce the requirements to establish such an indicator system and the calculation process

  3. Risk of nuclear damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kienzl, K.

    1997-01-01

    Following the opening and words of welcome by Mr. Fritz Unterpertinger (unit director at the Austrian Federal Ministry for the Environment, Youth and Family; BMUJF) Mrs Helga Kromp-Kolb (professor at the Institute for Meteorology and Physics of the University of Natural Resources Science Vienna) illustrated the risks of nuclear damage in Europe by means of a nuclear risk map. She explained that even from a scientific or technical point of view the assessment of risks arising from nuclear power stations was fraught with great uncertainties. Estimates about in how far MCAs (maximum credible accident) could still be controlled by safety systems vary widely and so do assessments of the probability of a core melt. But there is wide agreement in all risk assessments conducted so far that MCAs might occur within a - from a human point of view - conceivable number of years. In this connection one has to bear in mind that the occurrence of such a major accident - whatever its probability may be - could entail immense damage and the question arises whether or not it is at all justifiable to expose the general public to such a risk. Klaus Rennings (Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany) dealt with the economic aspects of nuclear risk assessment. He explained that there are already a number of studies available aiming to assess the risk of damage resulting from a core melt accident in economic terms. As to the probability of occurrence estimates vary widely between one incident in 3,333 and 250,000 year of reactor operation. It is assumed, however, that a nuclear accident involving a core melt in Germany would probably exceed the damage caused by the Chernobyl accident. The following speakers addressed the legal aspects of risks associated with nuclear installations. Mrs Monika Gimpel-Hinteregger (professor at the Institute for Civil Law in Graz) gave an overview on the applicable Austrian law concerning third party liability in the field of nuclear energy

  4. Hurricane Katrina: Fishing and Aquaculture Industries -- Damage and Recovery

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Buck, Eugene H

    2005-01-01

    ...% of the shrimp and 40% of the oysters consumed in the United States. Because of the damage wrought by Katrina, many areas of the Gulf Coast have been closed to fishing because of pollution-related contamination concerns...

  5. Hurricane Katrina: Fishing and Aquaculture Industries -- Damage and Recovery

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Buck, Eugene H

    2005-01-01

    .... In addition, inland areas account for much of the U.S. farmed catfish production. This report summarizes damage assessments and recovery efforts, with initial reports primarily anecdotal until more accurate assessments become available...

  6. Damage to offshore infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico by hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, A. M.; Krausmann, E.

    2009-04-01

    The damage inflicted by hurricanes Katrina and Rita to the Gulf-of-Mexico's (GoM) oil and gas production, both onshore and offshore, has shown the proneness of industry to Natech accidents (natural hazard-triggered hazardous-materials releases). In order to contribute towards a better understanding of Natech events, we assessed the damage to and hazardous-materials releases from offshore oil and natural-gas platforms and pipelines induced by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Data was obtained through a review of published literature and interviews with government officials and industry representatives from the affected region. We also reviewed over 60,000 records of reported hazardous-materials releases from the National Response Center's (NRC) database to identify and analyze the hazardous-materials releases directly attributed to offshore oil and gas platforms and pipelines affected by the two hurricanes. Our results show that hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed at least 113 platforms, and severely damaged at least 53 others. Sixty percent of the facilities destroyed were built 30 years ago or more prior to the adoption of the more stringent design standards that went into effect after 1977. The storms also destroyed 5 drilling rigs and severely damaged 19 mobile offshore drilling units (MODUs). Some 19 MODUs lost their moorings and became adrift during the storms which not only posed a danger to existing facilities but the dragging anchors also damaged pipelines and other infrastructure. Structural damage to platforms included toppling of sections, and tilting or leaning of platforms. Possible causes for failure of structural and non-structural components of platforms included loading caused by wave inundation of the deck. Failure of rigs attached to platforms was also observed resulting in significant damage to the platform or adjacent infrastructure, as well as damage to equipment, living quarters and helipads. The failures are attributable to tie-down components

  7. Predicting the hurricane damage ratio of commercial buildings by claim payout from Hurricane Ike

    OpenAIRE

    J. M. Kim; P. K. Woods; Y. J. Park; T. H. Kim; J. S. Choi; K. Son

    2013-01-01

    The increasing occurrence of natural disaster events and related damages have led to a growing demand for models that predict financial loss. Although considerable research has studied the financial losses related to natural disaster events, and has found significant predictors, there has not yet been a comprehensive study that addresses the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses of the individual buildings. This study...

  8. Assessing Hurricane Katrina Damage to the Mississippi Gulf Coast Using IKONOS Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; McKellip, Rodney

    2006-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina hit southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast as a Category 3 hurricane with storm surges as high as 9 m. Katrina devastated several coastal towns by destroying or severely damaging hundreds of homes. Several Federal agencies are assessing storm impacts and assisting recovery using high-spatial-resolution remotely sensed data from satellite and airborne platforms. High-quality IKONOS satellite imagery was collected on September 2, 2005, over southwestern Mississippi. Pan-sharpened IKONOS multispectral data and ERDAS IMAGINE software were used to classify post-storm land cover for coastal Hancock and Harrison Counties. This classification included a storm debris category of interest to FEMA for disaster mitigation. The classification resulted from combining traditional unsupervised and supervised classification techniques. Higher spatial resolution aerial and handheld photography were used as reference data. Results suggest that traditional classification techniques and IKONOS data can map wood-dominated storm debris in open areas if relevant training areas are used to develop the unsupervised classification signatures. IKONOS data also enabled other hurricane damage assessment, such as flood-deposited mud on lawns and vegetation foliage loss from the storm. IKONOS data has also aided regional Katrina vegetation damage surveys from multidate Land Remote Sensing Satellite and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data.

  9. Hurricane impacts on a pair of coastal forested watersheds: implications of selective hurricane damage to forest structure and streamflow dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    A. D. Jayakaran; T. M. Williams; H. Ssegane; D. M. Amatya; B. Song; C. C. Trettin

    2014-01-01

    Hurricanes are infrequent but influential disruptors of ecosystem processes in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Every southeastern forested wetland has the potential to be struck by a tropical cyclone. We examined the impact of Hurricane Hugo on two paired coastal watersheds in South Carolina in terms of stream flow and vegetation dynamics, both before and after the hurricane's passage in 1989. The study objectives were to quantify the magnitude and timing of changes including a rev...

  10. Hurricane impacts on a pair of coastal forested watersheds: implications of selective hurricane damage to forest structure and streamflow dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.D. Jayakaran; T.M. Williams; H. Ssegane; D.M. Amatya; B. Song; C.C. Trettin

    2014-01-01

    Hurricanes are infrequent but influential disruptors of ecosystem processes in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Every southeastern forested wetland has the potential to be struck by a tropical cyclone. We examined the impact of Hurricane Hugo on two paired coastal South Carolina watersheds in terms of streamflow and vegetation dynamics, both before and after...

  11. Quantifying the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Grossmann, Iris; Apt, Jay

    2012-02-28

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that if the United States is to generate 20% of its electricity from wind, over 50 GW will be required from shallow offshore turbines. Hurricanes are a potential risk to these turbines. Turbine tower buckling has been observed in typhoons, but no offshore wind turbines have yet been built in the United States. We present a probabilistic model to estimate the number of turbines that would be destroyed by hurricanes in an offshore wind farm. We apply this model to estimate the risk to offshore wind farms in four representative locations in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal waters of the United States. In the most vulnerable areas now being actively considered by developers, nearly half the turbines in a farm are likely to be destroyed in a 20-y period. Reasonable mitigation measures--increasing the design reference wind load, ensuring that the nacelle can be turned into rapidly changing winds, and building most wind plants in the areas with lower risk--can greatly enhance the probability that offshore wind can help to meet the United States' electricity needs.

  12. Modelling multi-hazard hurricane damages on an urbanized coast with a Bayesian Network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Verseveld, H.C.W.; Van Dongeren, A. R.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Jäger, W.S.; den Heijer, C.

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane flood impacts to residential buildings in coastal zones are caused by a number of hazards, such as inundation, overflow currents, erosion, and wave attack. However, traditional hurricane damage models typically make use of stage-damage functions, where the stage is related to flooding depth only. Moreover, these models are deterministic and do not consider the large amount of uncertainty associated with both the processes themselves and with the predictions. This uncertainty becomes increasingly important when multiple hazards (flooding, wave attack, erosion, etc.) are considered simultaneously. This paper focusses on establishing relationships between observed damage and multiple hazard indicators in order to make better probabilistic predictions. The concept consists of (1) determining Local Hazard Indicators (LHIs) from a hindcasted storm with use of a nearshore morphodynamic model, XBeach, and (2) coupling these LHIs and building characteristics to the observed damages. We chose a Bayesian Network approach in order to make this coupling and used the LHIs ‘Inundation depth’, ‘Flow velocity’, ‘Wave attack’, and ‘Scour depth’ to represent flooding, current, wave impacts, and erosion related hazards.The coupled hazard model was tested against four thousand damage observations from a case site at the Rockaway Peninsula, NY, that was impacted by Hurricane Sandy in late October, 2012. The model was able to accurately distinguish ‘Minor damage’ from all other outcomes 95% of the time and could distinguish areas that were affected by the storm, but not severely damaged, 68% of the time. For the most heavily damaged buildings (‘Major Damage’ and ‘Destroyed’), projections of the expected damage underestimated the observed damage. The model demonstrated that including multiple hazards doubled the prediction skill, with Log-Likelihood Ratio test (a measure of improved accuracy and reduction in uncertainty) scores between 0.02 and 0

  13. Safety and design impact of hurricane Andrew

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guey, Ching N.

    2004-01-01

    Turkey Point completed the IPE in June of 1991. Hurricane Andrew landed at Turkey Point on August 24, 1992. Although the safety related systems, components and structures were not damaged by the Hurricane Andrew, certain nonsafety related components and the neighboring fossil plant sustained noticeable damage. Among the major components that were nonsafety related but would affect the PRA of the plant included the service water pumps and the high tower. This paper discusses the safety and design impact of Hurricane Andrew on Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant. The risk of hurricanes on the interim and evolving plant configurations are briefly described. The risk of the plant from internal events as a result of damage incurred during Hurricane Andrew are discussed. The design change as the result of Hurricane Andrew and its impact on the PRA are presented. (author)

  14. An assessment of change in risk perception and optimistic bias for hurricanes among Gulf Coast residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbo, Craig; Meyer, Michelle A; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori; Morrissey, Bridget

    2014-06-01

    This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two-year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow-up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t-tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross-lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross-lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables' effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Kiju; Shavitt, Sharon; Viswanathan, Madhu; Hilbe, Joseph M

    2014-06-17

    Do people judge hurricane risks in the context of gender-based expectations? We use more than six decades of death rates from US hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes. Laboratory experiments indicate that this is because hurricane names lead to gender-based expectations about severity and this, in turn, guides respondents' preparedness to take protective action. This finding indicates an unfortunate and unintended consequence of the gendered naming of hurricanes, with important implications for policymakers, media practitioners, and the general public concerning hurricane communication and preparedness.

  16. Application of a regional hurricane wind risk forecasting model for wood-frame houses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Vineet Kumar; Davidson, Rachel Ann

    2007-02-01

    Hurricane wind risk in a region changes over time due to changes in the number, type, locations, vulnerability, and value of buildings. A model was developed to quantitatively estimate changes over time in hurricane wind risk to wood-frame houses (defined in terms of potential for direct economic loss), and to estimate how different factors, such as building code changes and population growth, contribute to that change. The model, which is implemented in a simulation, produces a probability distribution of direct economic losses for each census tract in the study region at each time step in the specified time horizon. By changing parameter values and rerunning the analysis, the effects of different changes in the built environment on the hurricane risk trends can be estimated and the relative effectiveness of hypothetical mitigation strategies can be evaluated. Using a case study application for wood-frame houses in selected counties in North Carolina from 2000 to 2020, this article demonstrates how the hurricane wind risk forecasting model can be used: (1) to provide insight into the dynamics of regional hurricane wind risk-the total change in risk over time and the relative contribution of different factors to that change, and (2) to support mitigation planning. Insights from the case study include, for example, that the many factors contributing to hurricane wind risk for wood-frame houses interact in a way that is difficult to predict a priori, and that in the case study, the reduction in hurricane losses due to vulnerability changes (e.g., building code changes) is approximately equal to the increase in losses due to building inventory growth. The potential for the model to support risk communication is also discussed.

  17. Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

  18. Earth, wind, and fire: Wildfire risk perceptions in a hurricane-prone environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soren M. Newman; Matthew S. Carroll; Pamela J. Jakes; Daniel R. Williams; Lorie L. Higgins

    2014-01-01

    Wildfire is one of several potential disturbances that could have extraordinary impacts on individuals and communities in fire-prone areas. In this article we describe disturbance risk perceptions from interviews with residents in three Florida communities that face significant wildfire and hurricane risk. Although they live in areas characterized by emergency managers...

  19. The main forest inventory characteristics of the stands damaged by hurricane winds in the southern taiga subzone (Kostroma Oblast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. N. Petukhov

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In June and July 2010 in Yaroslavl, Vologda and Kostroma regions, as a result of exposure to hurricane winds, recorded several violations of extensive forest cover in the form of windfalls and windbreaks (Krylov et al., 2012; Petukhov, Nemchinova, 2014. Retrospective analysis on the basis of remote sensing data for the period 1984–2011’s was conducted. It showed, that among the 21st dedicated mass windfall within the Kostroma region and border areas, windfall July 2010 is unique in the magnitude of the total area of disturbed forest cover. According to our estimates, derived from the analysis of remote sensing (RS, its area was more than 60 thousand Ha, which is four times the average annual area of clear felling, in particular, in the Kostroma region (Petukhov, Nemchinova, 2014. In addition to determining the areas of windfall violations of forest cover, based on forest inventory data and remote sensing data analyzed taxation characteristics of forest stands affected by the impact of the seven gale-force winds within the territory of the Kostroma region. The analysis revealed the following trends in hurricane-force winds damaged trees: for parameters such as completeness, forest type and site class is observed relatively uniform stands hurricane wind damage; I.e., we have not found an association between the degree (probability of forest stands damaged data and taxation values data. An exception is the age, height, and in some cases, the predominant species plantations. Plantations dominated by spruce in the stand proved to be somewhat less, but with a predominance of pine – more resistant to hurricane winds, compared to other tree species. Selectivity is also observed for breach of stands older than 40 years and a height of over 16 meters, which is possibly related to the morphological and physiological features of the trees of a given age and height.

  20. Land Use Adaptation to Climate Change: Economic Damages from Land-Falling Hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf States of the USA, 1900–2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asim Zia

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change, especially the phenomena of global warming, is expected to increase the intensity of land-falling hurricanes. Societal adaptation is needed to reduce vulnerability from increasingly intense hurricanes. This study quantifies the adaptation effects of potentially policy driven caps on housing densities and agricultural cover in coastal (and adjacent inland areas vulnerable to hurricane damages in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal regions of the U.S. Time series regressions, especially Prais-Winston and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA models, are estimated to forecast the economic impacts of hurricanes of varying intensity, given that various patterns of land use emerge in the Atlantic and Gulf coastal states of the U.S. The Prais-Winston and ARMA models use observed time series data from 1900 to 2005 for inflation adjusted hurricane damages and socio-economic and land-use data in the coastal or inland regions where hurricanes caused those damages. The results from this study provide evidence that increases in housing density and agricultural cover cause significant rise in the de-trended inflation-adjusted damages. Further, higher intensity and frequency of land-falling hurricanes also significantly increase the economic damages. The evidence from this study implies that a medium to long term land use adaptation in the form of capping housing density and agricultural cover in the coastal (and adjacent inland states can significantly reduce economic damages from intense hurricanes. Future studies must compare the benefits of such land use adaptation policies against the costs of development controls implied in housing density caps and agricultural land cover reductions.

  1. Changes in Patterns of Understory Leaf Phenology and Herbivory following Hurricane Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilar Angulo-Sandoval; H. Fernandez-Marin; J. K. Zimmerman; T. M. Aide

    2004-01-01

    Hurricanes are important disturbance events in many forested ecosystems. They can have strong effects on both forest structure and animal populations, and yet few studies have considered the impacts on plant–animal interactions. Reduction of canopy cover by severe winds increases light availability to understory plants, providing an opportunity for increased growth. An...

  2. REMOTE SENSING DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF CHEMICAL PLANTS AND REFINERIES FOLLOWING HURRICANES KATRINA AND RITA

    Science.gov (United States)

    The massive destruction brought by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita also impacted the many chemical plants and refineries in the region. The achievement of this rapid analysis capability highlights the advancement of this technology for air quality assessment and monitoring. Case st...

  3. Assessing Individual Weather Risk-Taking and Its Role in Modeling Likelihood of Hurricane Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, A. E.

    2017-12-01

    This research focuses upon measuring an individual's level of perceived risk of different severe and extreme weather conditions using a new self-report measure, the Weather Risk-Taking Scale (WRTS). For 32 severe and extreme situations in which people could perform an unsafe behavior (e. g., remaining outside with lightning striking close by, driving over roadways covered with water, not evacuating ahead of an approaching hurricane, etc.), people rated: 1.their likelihood of performing the behavior, 2. The perceived risk of performing the behavior, 3. the expected benefits of performing the behavior, and 4. whether the behavior has actually been performed in the past. Initial development research with the measure using 246 undergraduate students examined its psychometric properties and found that it was internally consistent (Cronbach's a ranged from .87 to .93 for the four scales) and that the scales possessed good temporal (test-retest) reliability (r's ranged from .84 to .91). A second regression study involving 86 undergraduate students found that taking weather risks was associated with having taken similar risks in one's past and with the personality trait of sensation-seeking. Being more attentive to the weather and perceiving its risks when it became extreme was associated with lower likelihoods of taking weather risks (overall regression model, R2adj = 0.60). A third study involving 334 people examined the contributions of weather risk perceptions and risk-taking in modeling the self-reported likelihood of complying with a recommended evacuation ahead of a hurricane. Here, higher perceptions of hurricane risks and lower perceived benefits of risk-taking along with fear of severe weather and hurricane personal self-efficacy ratings were all statistically significant contributors to the likelihood of evacuating ahead of a hurricane. Psychological rootedness and attachment to one's home also tend to predict lack of evacuation. This research highlights the

  4. Subclinical organ damage and cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Olsen, Michael H

    2010-01-01

    Traditional cardiovascular risk factors have poor prognostic value for individuals and screening for subclinical organ damage has been recommended in hypertension in recent guidelines. The aim of this review was to investigate the clinical impact of the additive prognostic information provided...... by measuring subclinical organ damage. We have (i) reviewed recent studies linking markers of subclinical organ damage in the heart, blood vessels and kidney to cardiovascular risk; (ii) discussed the evidence for improvement in cardiovascular risk prediction using markers of subclinical organ damage; (iii...

  5. Who evacuates when hurricanes approach? The role of risk, information, and location.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Robert M; Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo; Subramanian, Devika

    2010-01-01

    This article offers an expanded perspective on evacuation decision making during severe weather. In particular, this work focuses on uncovering determinants of individual evacuation decisions. We draw on a survey conducted in 2005 of residents in the eight-county Houston metropolitan area after Hurricane Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005. We find that evacuation decisions are influenced by a heterogeneous set of parameters, including perceived risk from wind, influence of media and neighbors, and awareness of evacuation zone, that are often at variance with one of the primary measures of risk used by public officials to order or recommend an evacuation (i.e., storm surge). We further find that perceived risk and its influence on evacuation behavior is a local phenomenon more readily communicated by and among individuals who share the same geography, as is the case with residents living inside and outside official risk areas. Who evacuates and why is partially dependent on where one lives because perceptions of risk are not uniformly shared across the area threatened by an approaching hurricane and the same sources and content of information do not have the same effect on evacuation behavior. Hence, efforts to persuade residential populations about risk and when, where, and how to evacuate or shelter in place should originate in the neighborhood rather than emanating from blanket statements from the media or public officials. Our findings also raise important policy questions (included in the discussion section) that require further study and consideration by those responsible with organizing and implementing evacuation plans.

  6. DNA Damage Signals and Space Radiation Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Space radiation is comprised of high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei and protons. The initial DNA damage from HZE nuclei is qualitatively different from X-rays or gamma rays due to the clustering of damage sites which increases their complexity. Clustering of DNA damage occurs on several scales. First there is clustering of single strand breaks (SSB), double strand breaks (DSB), and base damage within a few to several hundred base pairs (bp). A second form of damage clustering occurs on the scale of a few kbp where several DSB?s may be induced by single HZE nuclei. These forms of damage clusters do not occur at low to moderate doses of X-rays or gamma rays thus presenting new challenges to DNA repair systems. We review current knowledge of differences that occur in DNA repair pathways for different types of radiation and possible relationships to mutations, chromosomal aberrations and cancer risks.

  7. Sizing Up a Superstorm: Exploring the Role of Recalled Experience and Attribution of Responsibility in Judgments of Future Hurricane Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickard, Laura N; Yang, Z Janet; Schuldt, Jonathon P; Eosco, Gina M; Scherer, Clifford W; Daziano, Ricardo A

    2017-12-01

    Research suggests that hurricane-related risk perception is a critical predictor of behavioral response, such as evacuation. Less is known, however, about the precursors of these subjective risk judgments, especially when time has elapsed from a focal event. Drawing broadly from the risk communication, social psychology, and natural hazards literature, and specifically from concepts adapted from the risk information seeking and processing model and the protective action decision model, we examine how individuals' distant recollections, including attribution of responsibility for the effects of a storm, attitude toward relevant information, and past hurricane experience, relate to risk judgment for a future, similar event. The present study reports on a survey involving U.S. residents in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York (n = 619) impacted by Hurricane Sandy. While some results confirm past findings, such as that hurricane experience increases risk judgment, others suggest additional complexity, such as how various types of experience (e.g., having evacuated vs. having experienced losses) may heighten or attenuate individual-level judgments of responsibility. We suggest avenues for future research, as well as implications for federal agencies involved in severe weather/natural hazard forecasting and communication with public audiences. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Wildlife and habitat damage assessment from Hurricane Charley: recommendations for recovery of the J. N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge Complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, J. Michael; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Smith, Thomas J.; Pednault-Willett, Kendra

    2006-01-01

    • On 13 August 2004, the first of four hurricanes to strike Florida in Key waterbird nesting areas had >50% and sometimes 90% of their vegetation severely damaged (dead, broken tree stems, and tipped trees). The Shell Mound Trail area of JNDDNWR sustained catastrophic damage to its old growth mangrove forests. Direct storm mortality and injury to manatees in the area of the JNDDNWR Complex was probably slight as manatees may have several strategies to reduce storm mortality. Damage to seagrass beds, an important habitat for manatees, fishes and invertebrates, is believed to be limited to the breach at North Captiva Island. At this breach, refuge staff documented inundation of beds by sand and scarring by trees dragged by winds. • Because seagrass beads and manatee habitat extend beyond refuge boundaries (see p. 28), a regional approach with partner agencies to more thoroughly assess storm impacts and monitor recovery of seagrass and manatees is recommended. • Besides intensive monitoring of waterbirds and their nesting habitat (pre- and post-storm), the survey team recommends that the Mangrove Cuckoo be used as an indicator species for recovery of mangrove forests and also for monitoring songbirds at risk (this songbird is habitat-area sensitive). Black-whiskered Vireo may be another potential indicator species to monitor in mangrove forests. Monitoring for these species can be done by distance sampling on transects or by species presenceabsence from point counts. • Damaged vegetation should be monitored for recovery (permanent or long-term plots), especially where previous study plots have been established and with additional plots in mangrove forests of waterbird nesting islands and freshwater wetlands. • Potential loss of wetlands (and information for management) may be prevented by water level monitoring (3 permanent stations), locating the positions (GPS-GIS) and maintaining existing water control structures, creating a GIS map of the refuge with

  9. Longitudinal Impact of Attachment-Related Risk and Exposure to Trauma among Young Children after Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osofsky, Joy; Kronenberg, Mindy; Bocknek, Erika; Hansel, Tonya Cross

    2015-01-01

    Background: Research suggests that young childhood is a dynamic developmental phase during which risks to attachment figures as well as traumatic events may be particularly important. The loss and disruption associated with Hurricane Katrina highlighted the vulnerabilities and special needs of young children exposed to natural disaster. Objective:…

  10. Collision Risk and Damage after Collision

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Hansen, Peter Friis; Nielsen, Lars Peter

    1996-01-01

    The paper presents a new and complete procedure for calculation of ship-ship collision rates on specific routes and the hull damage caused by such collisions.The procedure is applied to analysis of collision risks for Ro-Ro pasenger vessels. Given a collision the spatial probability distribution ...

  11. Lead distributions and risks in New Orleans following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abel, Michael T; Cobb, George P; Presley, Steven M; Ray, Gary L; Rainwater, Thomas R; Austin, Galen P; Cox, Stephen B; Anderson, Todd A; Leftwich, Blair D; Kendall, Ronald J; Suedel, Burton C

    2010-07-01

    During the last four years, significant effort has been devoted to understanding the effects that Hurricanes Katrina and Rita had on contaminant distribution and redistribution in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, and the surrounding Gulf Coast area. Elevated concentrations were found for inorganic contaminants (including As, Fe, Pb, and V), several organic pollutants (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, pesticides, and volatiles) and high concentration of bioaerosols, particularly Aeromonas and Vibrio. Data from different research groups confirm that some contaminant concentrations are elevated, that existing concentrations are similar to historical data, and that contaminants such as Pb and As may pose human health risks. Two data sets have been compiled in this article to serve as the foundation for preliminary risk assessments within greater New Orleans. Research from the present study suggests that children in highly contaminated areas of New Orleans may experience Pb exposure from soil ranging from 1.37 microg/d to 102 microg/d. These data are critical in the evaluation of children's health. Copyright (c) 2010 SETAC.

  12. Estimating the spatial distribution of power outages during hurricanes in the Gulf coast region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, S.-R.; Guikema, Seth D.; Quiring, Steven M.; Lee, Kyung-Ho; Rosowsky, David; Davidson, Rachel A.

    2009-01-01

    Hurricanes have caused severe damage to the electric power system throughout the Gulf coast region of the US, and electric power is critical to post-hurricane disaster response as well as to long-term recovery for impacted areas. Managing power outage risk and preparing for post-storm recovery efforts requires accurate methods for estimating the number and location of power outages. This paper builds on past work on statistical power outage estimation models to develop, test, and demonstrate a statistical power outage risk estimation model for the Gulf Coast region of the US. Previous work used binary hurricane-indicator variables representing particular hurricanes in order to achieve a good fit to the past data. To use these models for predicting power outages during future hurricanes, one must implicitly assume that an approaching hurricane is similar to the average of the past hurricanes. The model developed in this paper replaces these indicator variables with physically measurable variables, enabling future predictions to be based on only well-understood characteristics of hurricanes. The models were developed using data about power outages during nine hurricanes in three states served by a large, investor-owned utility company in the Gulf Coast region

  13. Swamp tours in Louisiana post Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawn J. Schaffer; Craig A. Miller

    2007-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita made landfall in southern Louisiana during August and September 2005. Prior to these storms, swamp tours were a growing sector of nature-based tourism that entertained visitors while teaching about local flora, fauna, and culture. This study determined post-hurricane operating status of tours, damage sustained, and repairs made. Differences...

  14. Hurricane Katrina impacts on Mississippi forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonja N. Oswalt; Christopher Oswalt; Jeffery Turner

    2008-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina triggered public interest and concern for forests in Mississippi that required rapid responses from the scientific community. A uniform systematic sample of 3,590 ground plots were established and measured in 687 days immediately after the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast. The hurricane damaged an estimated 521 million trees with more...

  15. Geologic record of Hurricane impacts on the New Jersey coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikitina, Daria; Horton, Benjamin; Khan, Nicole; Clear, Jennifer; Shaw, Timothy; Enache, Mihaela; Frizzera, Dorina; Procopio, Nick; Potapova, Marina

    2016-04-01

    Hurricanes along the US Atlantic coast have caused significant damage and loss of human life over the last century. Recent studies suggest that intense-hurricane activity is closely related to changes of sea surface temperatures and therefore the risk of hurricane strikes may increase in the future. A clear understanding of the role of recent warming on tropical cyclone activity is limited by the shortness of the instrumental record. However, the sediment preserved beneath coastal wetlands is an archive of when hurricanes impacted the coast. We present two complimenting approaches that help to extend pre-historic record and assess frequency and intensity of hurricane landfalls along the New Jersey cost; dating overwash deposits and hurricane-induced salt-marsh erosion documented at multiple sites. The stratigraphic investigation of estuarine salt marshes in the southern New Jersey documented seven distinctive erosion events that correlate among different sites. Radiocarbon dates suggest the prehistoric events occurred in AD 558-673, AD 429-966, AD 558-673, Ad 1278-1438, AD 1526-1558 or AD 1630-1643 (Nikitina et al., 2014). Younger sequences correspond with historical land-falling hurricanes in AD 1903 and AD 1821 or AD 1788. Four events correlate well with barrier overwash deposits documented along the New Jersey coast (Donnelley et al., 2001 and 2004). The stratigraphic sequence of salt High resolution sedimentary-based reconstructions of past intense-hurricane landfalls indicate that significant variability in the frequency of intense hurricanes occurred over the last 2000 years.

  16. Risk Perceptions on Hurricanes: Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feria-Domínguez, José Manuel; Paneque, Pilar; Gil-Hurtado, María

    2017-06-05

    This article examines the market reaction of the main Property and Casualty (P & C) insurance companies listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to seven most recent hurricanes that hit the East Coast of the United States from 2005 to 2012. For this purpose, we run a standard short horizon event study in order to test the existence of abnormal returns around the landfalls. P & C companies are one of the most affected sectors by such events because of the huge losses to rebuild, help and compensate the inhabitants of the affected areas. From the financial investors' perception, this kind of events implies severe losses, which could influence the expected returns. Our research highlights the existence of significant cumulative abnormal returns around the landfall event window in most of the hurricanes analyzed, except for the Katrina and Sandy Hurricanes.

  17. A decision model for intergenerational life-cycle risk assessment of civil infrastructure exposed to hurricanes under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ji Yun; Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    2017-01-01

    Public awareness of civil infrastructure performance has increased considerably in recent years as a result of repeated natural disasters. Risks from natural hazards may increase dramatically in the future, given current patterns of urbanization and population growth in hazard-prone areas. Risk assessments for infrastructure with expected service periods of a century or more are highly uncertain, and there is compelling evidence that climatology will evolve over such intervals. Thus, current natural hazard and risk assessment models, which are based on a presumption of stationarity in hazard occurrence and intensity, may not be adequate to assess the potential risks from hazards occurring in the distant future. This paper addresses two significant intergenerational elements – the potential impact of non-stationarity in hazard due to climate change and intergenerational discounting practices – that are essential to provide an improved decision support framework that accommodates the needs and values of future generations. The framework so developed is tested through two benchmark problems involving buildings exposed to hurricanes. - Highlights: • Difficulties of conventional life-cycle engineering decision-making over multiple generations are clearly elaborated. • Two intergenerational elements are proposed to reflect equitable allocations of risk between generations. • A data-based approach to forecast future hurricanes is provided to bridge the gap between models at large and local scales. • The feasibility and practicability of a refined framework are examined through two lifecycle cost assessment examples. • The two intergenerational elements suggested in this study have a wide range of applicability.

  18. Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry Milch

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Although the field has seen great advances in hurricane prediction and response, the economic toll from hurricanes on U.S. communities continues to rise. We present data from Hurricanes Earl (2010, Irene (2011, Isaac (2012, and Sandy (2012 to show that individual and household decisions contribute to this vulnerability. From phone surveys of residents in communities threatened by impending hurricanes, we identify five decision biases or obstacles that interfere with residents’ ability to protect themselves and minimize property damage: (1 temporal and spatial myopia, (2 poor mental models of storm risk, (3 gaps between objective and subjective probability estimates, (4 prior storm experience, and (5 social factors. We then discuss ways to encourage better decision making and reduce the economic and emotional impacts of hurricanes, using tools such as decision defaults (requiring residents to opt out of precautions rather than opt in and tailoring internet-based forecast information so that it is local, specific, and emphasizes impacts rather than probability.

  19. The effects of hurricanes on birds, with special reference to Caribbean islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, J.W.; Wunderle, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    Cyclonic storms, variously called typhoons, cyclones, or hurricanes (henceforth, hurricanes), are common in many parts of the world, where their frequent occurrence can have both direct and indirect effects on bird populations. Direct effects of hurricanes include mortality from exposure to hurricane winds, rains, and storm surges, and geographic displacement of individuals by storm winds. Indirect effects become apparent in the storm's aftermath and include loss of food supplies or foraging substrates; loss of nests and nest or roost sites; increased vulnerability to predation; microclimate changes; and increased conflict with humans. The short-term response of bird populations to hurricane damage, before changes in plant succession, includes shifts in diet, foraging sites or habitats, and reproductive changes. Bird populations may show long-term responses to changes in plant succession as second-growth vegetation increases in storm-damaged old-growth forests. The greatest stress of a hurricane to most upland terrestrial bird populations occurs after its passage rather than during its impact. The most important effect of a hurricane is the destruction of vegetation, which secondarily affects wildlife in the storm's aftermath. The most vulnerable terrestrial wildlife populations have a diet of nectar, fruit, or seeds; nest, roost, or forage on large old trees; require a closed forest canopy; have special microclimate requirements and/or live in a habitat in which vegetation has a slow recovery rate. Small populations with these traits are at greatest risk to hurricane-induced extinction, particularly if they exist in small isolated habitat fragments. Recovery of avian populations from hurricane effects is partially dependent on the extent and degree of vegetation damage as well as its rate of recovery. Also, the reproductive rate of the remnant local population and recruitment from undisturbed habitat patches influence the rate at which wildlife populations recover

  20. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  1. Wildlife and habitat damage assessment from Hurricane Charley: recommendations for recovery of the J. N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge Complex. [Final report to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, J.M.; Langtimm, C.A.; Smith, T. J.; Pednault-Willett, K.

    2005-01-01

    On 13 August 2004, the first of four hurricanes to strike Florida in 50% and sometimes 90% of their vegetation severely damaged (dead, broken tree stems, and tipped trees). Shell Mound Trail of JNDDNWR sustained catastrophic damage to its old growth mangrove forests. Direct storm mortality and injury to manatees in the area was probably slight. Because seagrass beads and manatee habitat extend beyond refuge boundaries, we recommended a regional approach with partner agencies to more thoroughly assess storm impacts and monitor recovery of seagrass and manatees. Besides intensive monitoring of waterbirds and their nesting habitat (pre- and post-storm), we recommend that the Mangrove Cuckoo be used as an indicator species for recovery of mangrove forests and also for monitoring songbirds at risk. Black-whiskered Vireo may be another potential indicator species to monitor in mangrove forests. Damaged vegetation should be monitored for recovery (permanent or long-term plots), especially where previous study plots have been established and with additional plots in mangrove forests of waterbird nesting islands and freshwater wetlands. Potential loss of wetlands may be prevented by water level monitoring, locating the positions (GPS-GIS) and maintaining existing water control structures, creating a GIS map of refuge with accurate vertical data, and monitoring and eradicating invasive plants. Invasive species, including Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius) and air potato (Dioscorea bulbifora), were common in a very limited survey. As an important monitoring goal, we recommend that species presence-absence data analysis (with probability of detection) be used to determine changes in animal communities. This could be accomplished possibly with comparison to other storm-damaged and undamaged refuges in the Region. This information may be helpful to refuge managers when storms return in the future.

  2. Correlation between Hurricane Sandy damage along the New Jersey coast with land use, dunes and other local attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    The goal of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of sand dunes along New Jerseys Coast in reducing damage during Sandy. The study area included eight selected zones with different damage levels from Ocean County. A model to independently p...

  3. Mosquito fauna and arbovirus surveillance in a coastal Mississippi community after Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foppa, Ivo M; Evans, Christopher L; Wozniak, Arthur; Wills, William

    2007-06-01

    Hurricane Katrina caused massive destruction and flooding along the Gulf Coast in August 2005. We collected mosquitoes and tested them for arboviral infection in a severely hurricane-damaged community to determine species composition and to assess the risk of a mosquito-borne epidemic disease in that community about 6 wk after the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. Light-trap collections yielded 8,215 mosquitoes representing 19 species, while limited gravid-trap collections were not productive. The most abundant mosquito species was Culex nigripalpus, which constituted 73.6% of all specimens. No arboviruses were detected in any of the mosquitoes collected in this survey, which did not support the assertion that human risk for arboviral infection was increased in the coastal community 6 wk after the hurricane.

  4. Epidemic gasoline exposures following Hurricane Sandy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hong K; Takematsu, Mai; Biary, Rana; Williams, Nicholas; Hoffman, Robert S; Smith, Silas W

    2013-12-01

    Major adverse climatic events (MACEs) in heavily-populated areas can inflict severe damage to infrastructure, disrupting essential municipal and commercial services. Compromised health care delivery systems and limited utilities such as electricity, heating, potable water, sanitation, and housing, place populations in disaster areas at risk of toxic exposures. Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012 and caused severe infrastructure damage in heavily-populated areas. The prolonged electrical outage and damage to oil refineries caused a gasoline shortage and rationing unseen in the USA since the 1970s. This study explored gasoline exposures and clinical outcomes in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Prospectively collected, regional poison control center (PCC) data regarding gasoline exposure cases from October 29, 2012 (hurricane landfall) through November 28, 2012 were reviewed and compared to the previous four years. The trends of gasoline exposures, exposure type, severity of clinical outcome, and hospital referral rates were assessed. Two-hundred and eighty-three gasoline exposures were identified, representing an 18 to 283-fold increase over the previous four years. The leading exposure route was siphoning (53.4%). Men comprised 83.0% of exposures; 91.9% were older than 20 years of age. Of 273 home-based calls, 88.7% were managed on site. Asymptomatic exposures occurred in 61.5% of the cases. However, minor and moderate toxic effects occurred in 12.4% and 3.5% of cases, respectively. Gastrointestinal (24.4%) and pulmonary (8.4%) symptoms predominated. No major outcomes or deaths were reported. Hurricane Sandy significantly increased gasoline exposures. While the majority of exposures were managed at home with minimum clinical toxicity, some patients experienced more severe symptoms. Disaster plans should incorporate public health messaging and regional PCCs for public health promotion and toxicological surveillance.

  5. Hurricane risk assessment to rollback or ride out a cost versus loss decision making approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlman, Richard A.

    1992-01-01

    The potential exists that a hurricane striking the Kennedy Space Center while a Space Shuttle is on the pad. Winds in excess of 74.5 knots could cause the failure of the holddown bolts bringing about the catastrophic loss of the entire vehicle. Current plans call for the rollback of the shuttle when winds of that magnitude are forecast to strike the center. As this is costly, a new objective method for making rollback/rideout decisions based upon Bayesian Analysis and economic cost versus loss is presented.

  6. Risk based decision aid for damage control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meesters, J.L.; Keijer, W.; Gillis, M.P.W.

    2003-01-01

    The current trend in ship design is to reduce the crew. Special attention should be paid to damage control, which is a labour intensive task. Having less crew members implies that more tasks have to be automated. It also means a reduction of the available 'human sensors’, which leads to difficulties

  7. Restoration and recovery of hurricane-damaged mangroves using the knickpoint retreat effect and tides as dredging tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashan, Yoav; Moreno, Manuel; Salazar, Bernardo G; Alvarez, Leonardo

    2013-02-15

    In 2001, a hurricane moved a large sand dune, blocking the sole outlet channel of a mangrove. In the absence of daily tidal flow, the two ponds containing the mangrove vegetation evaporated, the secondary drainage channels were lost, and a salt crust formed on the bed of the ponds. The mangrove lost most of its trees and the remaining suffered from osmotic shock that led to defoliation. Restoration involved creating a knickpoint retreat (waterfall retreat effect) and tidal flow as a dredging mechanism to restore the outlet and form secondary channels in the ponds. During a very low tide, we deepened the mouth of the outlet channel by 1 m below high tide level to form a small waterfall when high tides receded. During successive tides, this one-step knickpoint deteriorated and formed a series of low rapids. With a steep gradient, the rapids retreated upstream into the ponds, first reopening the outlet channel and then carving new secondary channels in the pond mud flat. The excavation process of the outlet channel was repeated three times and was sufficient to effectively improve the hydrology of the entire pond system; allowing adequate flooding and draining of the mangrove ponds. Hydrology analysis tested by the Engelund-Hansen sediment transport formula established that the output of sediment from the ecosystem is greater than the input of sand into the mangroves. This is keeping the main channel continuously open. After eight years, tidal flow continues to keep the channels open; the salt crust has disappeared; the trees have recovered, and a large area of new vegetation has emerged. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. People with Increased Risk of Eye Damage from UV Light

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... With Increased Risk of Eye Damage from UV Light Leer en Español: Algunas Personas Están en Mayor Riesgo de Sufrir Daño Ocular por los Rayos UV Written By: Shirley Dang Apr. 30, 2014 Everyone of any age and any degree of skin pigmentation is susceptible to UV damage. Children are ...

  9. Hurricane preparedness among elderly residents in South Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleier, Jo Ann; Krause, Deirdre; Ogilby, Terry

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe factors associated with hurricane preparation and to test a theoretical model of hurricane preparation decision process among a group of elderly residents living in a high-risk geographical area. This is a descriptive, correlational study. A convenience sample consisted of 188 English-speaking individuals who were aged 55 years or older. In addition to demographic information, two survey instruments were used. Theoretical constructs were operationalized through Moon's Hurricane Preparation Questionnaire. Hurricane preparedness was measured by self-reported responses to FEMA's inventory checklist, which addresses the recommended basic steps of preparation. The theoretical model of hurricane preparation decision process was supported. Main barriers to preparation are the need for cooperation from others and cost of preparation. Participants reported having taken many preparatory steps to shelter-in-place, but too few are prepared if their home were storm-damaged or they should have to evacuate. Findings are consistent with previous studies of samples drawn from similar populations. This report provides guidance as to how public health nurses can become involved with the population and develop interventions based on the constructs of the theoretical model. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Hurricane slams gulf operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that reports of damage by Hurricane Andrew escalated last week as operators stepped up inspections of oil and gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico. By midweek, companies operating in the gulf and South Louisiana were beginning to agree that earlier assessments of damage only scratched the surface. Damage reports included scores of lost, toppled, or crippled platforms, pipeline ruptures, and oil slicks. By midweek the U.S. coast Guard had received reports of 79 oil spills. Even platforms capable of resuming production in some instances were begin curtailed because of damaged pipelines. Offshore service companies the another 2-4 weeks could be needed to fully assess Andrew's wrath. Lack of personnel and equipment was slowing damage assessment and repair

  11. Reconstructing patterns of temperature, phenology, and frost damage over 124 years: spring damage risk is increasing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augspurger, Carol K

    2013-01-01

    Climate change, with both warmer spring temperatures and greater temperature fluctuations, has altered phenologies, possibly leading to greater risk of spring frost damage to temperate deciduous woody plants. Phenological observations of 20 woody species from 1993 to 2012 in Trelease Woods, Champaign County, Illinois, USA, were used to identify years with frost damage to vegetative and reproductive phases. Local temperature records were used in combination with the phenological observations to determine what combinations of the two were associated with damage. Finally, a long-term temperature record (1889-1992) was evaluated to determine if the frequency of frost damage has risen in recent decades. Frost Frost damage occurred in five years in the interior and in three additional years at only the forest edge. The degree of damage varied with species, life stage, tissue (vegetative or reproductive), and phenological phase. Common features associated with the occurrence of damage to interior plants were (1) a period of unusual warm temperatures in March, followed by (2) a frost event in April with a minimum temperature frost damage increased significantly, from 0.03 during 1889-1979 to 0.21 during 1980-2012. When the criteria were "softened" to frost damage events more common.

  12. Landscape and regional impacts of hurricanes in Puerto Rico

    OpenAIRE

    Boose, Emery Robert; Serrano, Mayra I.; Foster, David Russell

    2004-01-01

    Puerto Rico is subject to frequent and severe impacts from hurricanes, whose long-term ecological role must be assessed on a scale of centuries. In this study we applied a method for reconstructing hurricane disturbance regimes developed in an earlier study of hurricanes in New England. Patterns of actual wind damage from historical records were analyzed for 85 hurricanes since European settlement in 1508. A simple meteorological model (HURRECON) was used to reconstruct the impacts of 43 hurr...

  13. The Importance of Damage Potential for Avalanche Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiler, M.; Fuchs, S.

    2003-04-01

    Risk is normally expressed as a function of recurrence probability of a process and its related damage potential. Various physical and empirical models describing the process aspect of the risk formula exist in the field of avalanche risk management while studies on damage potential are rare. Due to the changes of the socio-economic structures in mountain regions (urban sprawl, population growth, increased mobility and tourism) these studies are mandatory. This study focuses on different possibilities to obtain obligatory input parameters for multitemporal studies in settlement areas. A conceptual method that records the damage potential (probability of presence, evaluation of buildings) was developed and applied in Tyrol, Austria. A second approach, working with real-time insurance values for buildings and population growth, was tested in Grison, Switzerland. The different developments of the damage potential in the two alpine study areas are highlighted; their influences on the risk formula are discussed. The results of both studies show the advantages and disadvantages of each method, such as precision, amount of time needed and possibilities of implementing in a GIS. The results serve to improve risk determination and point out an unnoticed increase of damage potential and risk in apparently safe settlement areas.

  14. WIND DAMAGE ON TREES FOLLOWING HURRICANE SANDY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CITY LANDSCAPING: GLEN RIDGE – MONTCLAIR TOWNS, NEW JERSEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FAITH JUSTUS

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Glen Ridge is a small municipality in the Northern New Jersey with a significant number of huge trees lining majority of its streets. The trees have been subject to a wide range of natural and artificial stresses, one being the strong wind associated with superstorm Sandy. On 29th October 2012, a windstorm of extreme intensity struck the Tristate region and brought havoc to the tree population including those in Glen Ridge. A survey was conducted immediately after the storm to collect quantitative information on fallen tree population. The study aimed at understanding the spatial extent of wind damage on trees with reference to location, trunk diameter and soil characteristics. A total of 51 fallen trees with a mean trunk diameter of 100.4 centimetres along streets in study area were surveyed. High damage was noted on trees in Glen Ridge (29 trees while streets transitioning to Montclair had 22 fallen trees. Majority of the surveyed trees were found on USBOO soils (49%, which are characterised as disturbed urban soils with Boonton substratum-Boonton complexes. BowrB soils had 27.5%, Boob 13.7%, BowrC 7.8% and USDUNB 2.0% of fallen trees. A need for city wide tree inventorying and species mapping is identified as a management implication to further enhance the historical value of the city. Other measures are discussed with a view of engaging appropriate local management partnerships and coordination frameworks to play a role in protecting the remaining large trees.

  15. World Health Organization cardiovascular risk stratification and target organ damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piskorz, D; Bongarzoni, L; Citta, L; Citta, N; Citta, P; Keller, L; Mata, L; Tommasi, A

    2016-01-01

    Prediction charts allow treatment to be targeted according to simple markers of cardiovascular risk; many algorithms do not recommend screening asymptomatic target organ damage which could change dramatically the assessment. To demonstrate that target organ damage is present in low cardiovascular risk hypertensive patients and it is more frequent and severe as global cardiovascular risk increases. Consecutive hypertensive patients treated at a single Latin American center. Cardiovascular risk stratified according to 2013 WHO/ISH risk prediction chart America B. Left ventricular mass assessed by Devereux method, left ventricular hypertrophy considered >95g/m(2) in women and >115g/m(2) in men. Transmitral diastolic peak early flow velocity to average septal/lateral peak early diastolic relaxation velocity (E/e' ratio) measured cut off value >13. Systolic function assessed by tissue Doppler average interventricular septum/lateral wall mitral annulus rate systolic excursion (s wave). A total of 292 patients were included of whom 159 patients (54.5%) had cardiovascular risk of 20%. Left ventricular hypertrophy was detected in 17.6% low risk patients, 27.8% in medium risk and 23.3% in high risk (p<0.05), abnormal E/e' ratio was found in 13.8%, 31.1% and 27.9%, respectively (p<0.05). Mean s wave was 8.03+8, 8.1+9 and 8.7+1cm/s for low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively (p<0.025). Target organ damage is more frequent and severe in high risk; one over four subjects was misclassified due to the presence of asymptomatic target organ damage. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. Validation of a probabilistic model for hurricane insurance loss projections in Florida

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinelli, J.-P.; Gurley, K.R.; Subramanian, C.S.; Hamid, S.S.; Pita, G.L.

    2008-01-01

    The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model is one of the first public models accessible for scrutiny to the scientific community, incorporating state of the art techniques in hurricane and vulnerability modeling. The model was developed for Florida, and is applicable to other hurricane-prone regions where construction practice is similar. The 2004 hurricane season produced substantial losses in Florida, and provided the means to validate and calibrate this model against actual claim data. This paper presents the predicted losses for several insurance portfolios corresponding to hurricanes Andrew, Charley, and Frances. The predictions are validated against the actual claim data. Physical damage predictions for external building components are also compared to observed damage. The analyses show that the predictive capabilities of the model were substantially improved after the calibration against the 2004 data. The methodology also shows that the predictive capabilities of the model could be enhanced if insurance companies report more detailed information about the structures they insure and the types of damage they suffer. This model can be a powerful tool for the study of risk reduction strategies

  17. Hurricane Resource Reel

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This Reel Includes the Following Sections TRT 50:10 Hurricane Overviews 1:02; Hurricane Arthur 15:07; Cyclone Pam 19:48; Typhoon Hagupit 21:27; Hurricane Bertha...

  18. Hurricane Evacuation Routes

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Hurricane Evacuation Routes in the United States A hurricane evacuation route is a designated route used to direct traffic inland in case of a hurricane threat. This...

  19. Maternal exposure to hurricane destruction and fetal mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahran, Sammy; Breunig, Ian M; Link, Bruce G; Snodgrass, Jeffrey G; Weiler, Stephan; Mielke, Howard W

    2014-08-01

    The majority of research documenting the public health impacts of natural disasters focuses on the well-being of adults and their living children. Negative effects may also occur in the unborn, exposed to disaster stressors when critical organ systems are developing and when the consequences of exposure are large. We exploit spatial and temporal variation in hurricane behaviour as a quasi-experimental design to assess whether fetal death is dose-responsive in the extent of hurricane damage. Data on births and fetal deaths are merged with Parish-level housing wreckage data. Fetal outcomes are regressed on housing wreckage adjusting for the maternal, fetal, placental and other risk factors. The average causal effect of maternal exposure to hurricane destruction is captured by difference-in-differences analyses. The adjusted odds of fetal death are 1.40 (1.07-1.83) and 2.37 (1.684-3.327) times higher in parishes suffering 10-50% and >50% wreckage to housing stock, respectively. For every 1% increase in the destruction of housing stock, we observe a 1.7% (1.1-2.4%) increase in fetal death. Of the 410 officially recorded fetal deaths in these parishes, between 117 and 205 may be attributable to hurricane destruction and postdisaster disorder. The estimated fetal death toll is 17.4-30.6% of the human death toll. The destruction caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita imposed significant measurable losses in terms of fetal death. Postdisaster migratory dynamics suggest that the reported effects of maternal exposure to hurricane destruction on fetal death may be conservative. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. Hurricane Katrina Wind Investigation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desjarlais, A. O.

    2007-08-15

    This investigation of roof damage caused by Hurricane Katrina is a joint effort of the Roofing Industry Committee on Weather Issues, Inc. (RICOWI) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory/U.S. Department of Energy (ORNL/DOE). The Wind Investigation Program (WIP) was initiated in 1996. Hurricane damage that met the criteria of a major windstorm event did not materialize until Hurricanes Charley and Ivan occurred in August 2004. Hurricane Katrina presented a third opportunity for a wind damage investigation in August 29, 2005. The major objectives of the WIP are as follows: (1) to investigate the field performance of roofing assemblies after major wind events; (2) to factually describe roofing assembly performance and modes of failure; and (3) to formally report results of the investigations and damage modes for substantial wind speeds The goal of the WIP is to perform unbiased, detailed investigations by credible personnel from the roofing industry, the insurance industry, and academia. Data from these investigations will, it is hoped, lead to overall improvement in roofing products, systems, roofing application, and durability and a reduction in losses, which may lead to lower overall costs to the public. This report documents the results of an extensive and well-planned investigative effort. The following program changes were implemented as a result of the lessons learned during the Hurricane Charley and Ivan investigations: (1) A logistics team was deployed to damage areas immediately following landfall; (2) Aerial surveillance--imperative to target wind damage areas--was conducted; (3) Investigation teams were in place within 8 days; (4) Teams collected more detailed data; and (5) Teams took improved photographs and completed more detailed photo logs. Participating associations reviewed the results and lessons learned from the previous investigations and many have taken the following actions: (1) Moved forward with recommendations for new installation procedures

  1. Prevention of damage and 'residual risk' in nuclear power laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greipl, C.

    1992-01-01

    The concept of prevention of damage within the framework of nuclear power laws includes averting danger for the protection of third parties and preventing risks for the partial protection of third parties with the proviso that still a desire to use the concept 'residual risk' in addition, it should be limited, on the grounds of what can be reasonably expected, to those risks which cannot be reduced any further by the government, i.e. to risks which the public in general and third parties ('actually') must accept. In the future, questions regarding safety systems should be taken into account exclusively withing the context of 'what is necessary for protection against damage in keeping with the latest developments in science and technology' and not at the discretion of the law in denying permission according to Article 7 Paragraph 2 Atomic Energy Law. (orig.) [de

  2. The effect of proximity to hurricanes Katrina and Rita on subsequent hurricane outlook and optimistic bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbo, Craig; Lueck, Michelle; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori

    2011-12-01

    This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was hypothesized that hurricane outlook and optimistic bias for hurricane risk would be associated positively with distance from the Katrina-Rita landfall (more optimism at greater distance), controlling for historically based hurricane risk and county population density, demographics, individual hurricane experience, and dispositional optimism. Data were collected in January 2006 through a mail survey sent to 1,375 households in 41 counties on the coast (n = 824, 60% response). The analysis used hierarchal regression to test hypotheses. Hurricane history and population density had no effect on outlook; individuals who were male, older, and with higher household incomes were associated with lower risk perception; individual hurricane experience and personal impacts from Katrina and Rita predicted greater risk perception; greater dispositional optimism predicted more optimistic outlook; distance had a small effect but predicted less optimistic outlook at greater distance (model R(2) = 0.21). The model for optimistic bias had fewer effects: age and community tenure were significant; dispositional optimism had a positive effect on optimistic bias; distance variables were not significant (model R(2) = 0.05). The study shows that an existing measure of hurricane outlook has utility, hurricane outlook appears to be a unique concept from hurricane optimistic bias, and proximity has at most small effects. Future extension of this research will include improved conceptualization and measurement of hurricane risk perception and will bring to focus several concepts involving risk communication. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. JLAB Hurricane recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A. Hutton; D. Arenius; J. Benesch; S. Chattopadhyay; E. F. Daly; O. Garza; R. Kazimi; R. Lauzi; L. Merminga; W. Merz; R. Nelson; W. Oren; M. Poelker; P. Powers; J. Preble; V. Ganni; C. R. Reece; R. Rimmer; M. Spata; S. Suhring

    2004-01-01

    Hurricane Isabel, originally a Category 5 storm, arrived at Jefferson Lab on September 18, 2003 with winds of only 75 mph, creating little direct damage to the infrastructure. However, electric power was lost for four days allowing the superconducting cryomodules to warm up and causing a total loss of the liquid helium. The subsequent recovery of the cryomodules and the impact of the considerable amount of opportunistic preventive maintenance provides important lessons for all accelerator complexes, not only those with superconducting elements. The details of how the recovery process was structured and the resulting improvement in accelerator availability will be discussed in detail

  4. Cancer risk and oxidative DNA damage in man

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loft, S; Poulsen, H E

    1996-01-01

    with a mechanistically based increased risk of cancer, including Fanconi anemia, chronic hepatitis, cystic fibrosis, and various autoimmune diseases, the biomarker studies indicate an increased rate of oxidative DNA damage or in some instances deficient repair. Human studies support the experimentally based notion...

  5. Hurricane feedback research may improve intensity forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Colin

    2012-06-01

    Forecasts of a hurricane's intensity are generally much less accurate than forecasts of its most likely path. Large-scale atmospheric patterns dictate where a hurricane will go and how quickly it will get there. The storm's intensity, however, depends on small-scale shifts in atmospheric stratification, upwelling rates, and other transient dynamics that are difficult to predict. Properly understanding the risk posed by an impending storm depends on having a firm grasp of all three properties: translational speed, intensity, and path. Drawing on 40 years of hurricane records representing 3090 different storms, Mei et al. propose that a hurricane's translational speed and intensity may be closely linked.

  6. The impact of Hurricane Sandy on the mental health of New York area residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Rebecca M; Sison, Cristina; Kerath, Samantha M; Murphy, Lisa; Breil, Trista; Sikavi, Daniel; Taioli, Emanuela

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate the long-term psychological impact of Hurricane Sandy on New York residents. Prospective, cross-sectional study. Community-based study. From October 2013 to February 2015, 669 adults in Long Island, Queens, and Staten Island completed a survey on their behavioral and psychological health, demographics, and hurricane impact (ie, exposure). Depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Using multivariable logistic regression models, the relationships between Hurricane Sandy exposure and depression, anxiety, and PTSD were examined. Participants experienced an average of 3.9 exposures to Hurricane Sandy, most of which were related to property damage/loss. Probable depression was reported in 33.4 percent of participants, probable anxiety in 46 percent, and probable PTSD in 21.1 percent. Increased exposure to Hurricane Sandy was significantly associated with a greater likelihood of depression (odds ratio [OR] = 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.14), anxiety (OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03-1.13), and probable PTSD (OR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.23-1.40), even after controlling for demographic factors known to increase susceptibility to mental health issues. Individuals affected by Hurricane Sandy reported high levels of mental health issues and were at an increased risk of depression, anxiety, and PTSD in the years following the storm. Recovery and prevention efforts should focus on mental health issues in affected populations.

  7. Evaluating the role of coastal habitats and sea-level rise in hurricane risk mitigation: An ecological economic assessment method and application to a business decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Sheila M W; Guannel, Gregory; Griffin, Robert; Faries, Joe; Boucher, Timothy; Thompson, Michael; Brenner, Jorge; Bernhardt, Joey; Verutes, Gregory; Wood, Spencer A; Silver, Jessica A; Toft, Jodie; Rogers, Anthony; Maas, Alexander; Guerry, Anne; Molnar, Jennifer; DiMuro, Johnathan L

    2016-04-01

    Businesses may be missing opportunities to account for ecosystem services in their decisions, because they do not have methods to quantify and value ecosystem services. We developed a method to quantify and value coastal protection and other ecosystem services in the context of a cost-benefit analysis of hurricane risk mitigation options for a business. We first analyze linked biophysical and economic models to examine the potential protection provided by marshes. We then applied this method to The Dow Chemical Company's Freeport, Texas facility to evaluate natural (marshes), built (levee), and hybrid (marshes and a levee designed for marshes) defenses against a 100-y hurricane. Model analysis shows that future sea-level rise decreases marsh area, increases flood heights, and increases the required levee height (12%) and cost (8%). In this context, marshes do not provide sufficient protection to the facility, located 12 km inland, to warrant a change in levee design for a 100-y hurricane. Marshes do provide some protection near shore and under smaller storm conditions, which may help maintain the coastline and levee performance in the face of sea-level rise. In sum, the net present value to the business of built defenses ($217 million [2010 US$]) is greater than natural defenses ($15 million [2010 US$]) and similar to the hybrid defense scenario ($229 million [2010 US$]). Examination of a sample of public benefits from the marshes shows they provide at least $117 million (2010 US$) in coastal protection, recreational value, and C sequestration to the public, while supporting 12 fisheries and more than 300 wildlife species. This study provides information on where natural defenses may be effective and a replicable approach that businesses can use to incorporate private, as well as public, ecosystem service values into hurricane risk management at other sites. © 2015 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc

  8. Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

    2014-07-01

    The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

  9. Terrorism cover in France for property damage including nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanislas, A.

    2004-01-01

    The obligation to include terrorism cover in all Property Damage policies issued on the French Market is ruled by an Act of 1986 and introduced under Section R 126-2 of the French Code of Insurance. This section stipulates that Property Damage policies must provide cover for damage resulting from acts of terrorism, with the same deductible and the same limit than that of the other damage covered in the policy. Soon after the dramatic events of September 11, 2001 in the United States and although reinsurers worldwide restricted their offer of capacities, French insurers recognized that they had to maintain this global cover for the benefit of their insurers. After difficult discussions between insurers, reinsurers, brokers, risk managers and representatives of the State, the creation of a new Pool, backed with a State guarantee, was decided in less than three months. Effective January 1, 2002 and called Gestion d'Assurance et de Reassurance des Risques Attentats et Actes de Terrorisme (GAREAT), the Pool offers a multiple layers stop-loss cover for Property Damage only, i.e. excluding TPL policies. Considering that nuclear risks should be treated in the same way as other industrial risks, it was decided that they would be covered by GAREAT as well. In the meantime, by a Decree of December 28, 2001 modifying Section R 126-2, a special provision, aiming at reducing the limit and thus the price of this cover, was introduced in the Code. The purpose of this paper is to expose the present situation applying through GAREAT and, after two years of operation to discuss future developments, including other sources of capacity for the coverage of acts of terrorism in nuclear risks insurance.(author)

  10. Features of risks, damage claims processing and damage prevention overseas. Pt. 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Splittgerber, E

    1981-01-01

    In opening up new raw material resources in remote locations and in the erection of industrial installations in overseas countries, manufacturers are often confronted with additional, unusual and hitherto unknown risks which can have considerable influence upon the orderly and timely execution of their projects. In Part I, various risk factors are considered from the experiences of Allianz as technical insurer in foreign damages connected with plant, civil and installation work insurance. The influence of climatic conditions upon damage events is illustrated with examples and the effects of storm, sand storm, flooding and earthquake discussed using a world map of natural dangers. The customs of people from culturally different nations and races, dictated as they often are by religion, must be taken into account by site managers and other staff on the building sites. The necessity for improvisations on building sites far from home and the limits of such improvisations are also discussed.

  11. Price Increases in the Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina: Authority to Limit Price Gouging

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Welborn, Angie A; Flynn, Aaron M

    2005-01-01

    .... Specifically, questions have arisen regarding increased prices in the areas affected by Hurricane Katrina and the effect that the damage caused by the hurricane will have on prices, specifically...

  12. Are recent hurricane (Harvey, Irma, Maria) disasters natural?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, K. E.; Lijing, C.; Jacobs, P.; Abraham, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Yes and no! Hurricanes are certainly natural, but human-caused climate change is supersizing them, and unbridled growth is exacerbating risk of major damages. The addition of heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere has led to observed increases in upper ocean heat content (OHC). This human-caused increase in OHC supports higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric moisture. These elevated temperatures and increased moisture availability fuel tropical storms, allowing them to grow larger, longer lasting, and more intense, and with widespread heavy rainfalls. Our preliminary analysis of OHC through the August of 2017 shows not only was it by far the highest on record globally, but it was also the highest on record in the Gulf of Mexico prior to hurricane Harvey occurring. The human influence on the climate is also evident in rising sea levels, which increases risks from storm surges. These climatic changes are taking place against a background of growing habitation along coasts, which further increases the risk storms pose to life and property. This combination of planning choice and climatic change illustrates the tragedy of global warming, as evidenced by Harvey in Houston, Irma in the Caribbean and Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico. However, future damages and loss of life can be mitigated, by stopping or slowing human-caused climate change, and through proactive planning (e.g., better building codes, increased-capacity drainage systems, shelters, and evacuation plans). We discuss the climatic and planning contexts of the unnatural disasters of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season, including novel indices of climate-hurricane influence.

  13. Estimation of embrittlement damage risk at neutron embrittled vessel constructions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staevski, K.; Madzharov, D.; Detistov, P.; Petrova, T.

    1998-01-01

    In this work a methodology based on Damage mechanics criteria is proposed. This methodology serves for probability assessment of the brittle damage risk for the neutron embrittled vessel elements. The developed methodology is realised in RISK code and has been verified on the base of tough reliability of the pressure vessel, 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2. This investigation has been carried out at the given parameters of the possible defects on the vessel's weld 4 taking into account requirements of the western and Russian standards. The obtained values for ductile to brittle transition temperatures, defining the equipment life-time in the presence of maximal defect, are in good consistence with the experimentally determined ones. The analyses of results show that the pressure vessel of 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2 has got a high level of reliability from brittle damage risk point of view and that the western standards give more conservative evaluation. On the bases of the results a conclusion is made that the developed methodology enables analysing the influence of possible defects in the neutron embrittled elements on their to reliability and their remained life-time

  14. Mapping potential carbon and timber losses from hurricanes using a decision tree and ecosystem services driver model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delphin, S; Escobedo, F J; Abd-Elrahman, A; Cropper, W

    2013-11-15

    Information on the effect of direct drivers such as hurricanes on ecosystem services is relevant to landowners and policy makers due to predicted effects from climate change. We identified forest damage risk zones due to hurricanes and estimated the potential loss of 2 key ecosystem services: aboveground carbon storage and timber volume. Using land cover, plot-level forest inventory data, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, and a decision tree-based framework; we determined potential damage to subtropical forests from hurricanes in the Lower Suwannee River (LS) and Pensacola Bay (PB) watersheds in Florida, US. We used biophysical factors identified in previous studies as being influential in forest damage in our decision tree and hurricane wind risk maps. Results show that 31% and 0.5% of the total aboveground carbon storage in the LS and PB, respectively was located in high forest damage risk (HR) zones. Overall 15% and 0.7% of the total timber net volume in the LS and PB, respectively, was in HR zones. This model can also be used for identifying timber salvage areas, developing ecosystem service provision and management scenarios, and assessing the effect of other drivers on ecosystem services and goods. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Automatic characterization of loose parts impact damage risk parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glass, S.W.; Phillips, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    Loose parts caught in the high-velocity flows of the reactor coolant fluid strike against nuclear steam supply system (NSSS) components and can cause significant damage. Loose parts monitor systems (LPMS) have been available for years to detect metal-to-metal impacts. Once detected, however, an assessment of the damage risk potential for leaving the part in the system versus shutting it down and removing the part must be made. The principal parameters used in the damage risk assessment are time delays between the first and subsequent sensor indications (used to assess the impact location) and a correlation between the waveform and the impact energy of the part (how hard the part impacted). These parameters are not well suited to simple automatic techniques. The task has historically been performed by loose parts diagnostic experts who base much of their evaluation on experience and subjective interpretation of impact data waveforms. Three of the principal goals in developing the Babcock and Wilcox (B and W) LPMS-III were (a) to develop an accurate automatic assessment for the time delays, (b) to develop an automatic estimate of the impact energy, and (c) to present the data in a meaningful manner to the operator

  16. Why near-miss events can decrease an individual's protective response to hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Robin L; Tinsley, Catherine H; Cronin, Matthew

    2011-03-01

    Prior research shows that when people perceive the risk of some hazardous event to be low, they are unlikely to engage in mitigation activities for the potential hazard. We believe one factor that can lower inappropriately (from a normative perspective) people's perception of the risk of a hazard is information about prior near-miss events. A near-miss occurs when an event (such as a hurricane), which had some nontrivial probability of ending in disaster (loss of life, property damage), does not because good fortune intervenes. People appear to mistake such good fortune as an indicator of resiliency. In our first study, people with near-miss information were less likely to purchase flood insurance, and this was shown for both participants from the general population and individuals with specific interests in risk and natural disasters. In our second study, we consider a different mitigation decision, that is, to evacuate from a hurricane, and vary the level of statistical probability of hurricane damage. We still found a strong effect for near-miss information. Our research thus shows how people who have experienced a similar situation but escape damage because of chance will make decisions consistent with a perception that the situation is less risky than those without the past experience. We end by discussing the implications for risk communication. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Hurricane Impacts to Tropical and Temperate Forest Landscapes

    OpenAIRE

    Boose, Emery Robert; Foster, David Russell; Fluet, Marcheterre

    1994-01-01

    Hurricanes represent an important natural disturbance process to tropical and temperate forests in many coastal areas of the world. The complex patterns of damage created in forests by hurricane winds result from the interaction of meteorological, physiographic, and biotic factors on a range of spatial scales. To improve our understanding of these factors and of the role of catastrophic hurricane wind as a disturbance process, we take an integrative approach. A simple meteorological model (HU...

  18. Sleep Quality Among Low-Income Young Women in Southeast Texas Predicts Changes in Perceived Stress Through Hurricane Ike.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhao Helen; Stevens, Richard G; Tennen, Howard; North, Carol S; Grady, James J; Holzer, Charles

    2015-07-01

    To document the time course of perceived stress among women through the period of a natural disaster, to determine the effect of sleep quality on this time course, and to identify risk factors that predict higher levels of perceived stress. Longitudinal study from 2006-2012. Community-based family planning clinics in southeast Texas. There were 296 women aged 18-31 y who experienced Hurricane Ike, September 2008. Cohen Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) was administered every 2 mo from 6 mo before to 12 mo after Hurricane Ike. Sleep quality was assessed 1 mo after Hurricane Ike using the Pittsburg Sleep Quality Index (PSQI). Good sleep was defined as a PSQI summary score sleep as a score ≥ 5. Hurricane Ike stressors (e.g., property damage, subjective stressors) and pre-Ike lifetime major life events and emotional health (e.g., emotional dysregulation, self-control) were also assessed. Over the entire period of 18 mo (6 mo before and 12 mo after the hurricane), perceived stress was significantly higher among poor sleepers compared to good sleepers, and only good sleepers showed a significant decrease in perceived stress after Hurricane Ike. In addition, a higher level of perceived stress was positively associated with greater Ike damage among poor sleepers, whereas this correlation was not observed among good sleepers. In the final multivariate longitudinal model, Ike-related subjective stressors as well as baseline major life events and emotional dysregulation among poor sleepers predicted higher levels of perceived stress over time; among good sleepers, additional factors such as lower levels of self-control and having a history of a psychiatric disorder also predicted higher levels of perceived stress. Sleep quality after Hurricane Ike, an intense natural disaster producing substantial damage, impacted changes in perceived stress over time. Our findings suggest the possibility that providing victims of disasters with effective interventions to improve sleep quality

  19. Coral bleaching, hurricane damage, and benthic cover on coral reefs in St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands: A comparison of surveys with the chain transect method and videography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, C.S.; Miller, J.

    2001-01-01

    The linear chain transect method and videography were used to quantify the percent cover by corals, macroalgae, gorgonians, other living organisms, and substrate along permanent transects on two fringing reefs off St. John. Both methods were used simultaneously on Lameshur reef in November 1998, and on Newfound reef in March and October 1998. Hurricane Georges passed over St. John in September 1998, and a severe coral bleaching episode began the same month. Both methods gave remarkably similar values for coral cover, while the video method gave consistently higher values for gorgonians and macroalgae. The most dramatic difference was in the quantification of bleaching. At Newfound, the chain method indicated 13.4% (SD = 14.1) of the coral tissues were bleached and the video method, 43.4% (SD = 13.0). Corresponding values at Lameshur were 18.1% (SD = 22.3) and 46.5% (SD = 13.3). Although hurricane damage was conspicuous at Newfound reef, neither method showed significant changes in coral cover or other categories as a result of the storm.

  20. Estimating hypothetical present-day insured losses for past intense hurricanes in the French Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, James; Desarthe, Jérémy; Naulin, Jean-Philippe; Garnier, Emmanuel; Liu, Ye; Moncoulon, David

    2015-04-01

    On the islands of the French Antilles, the period for which systematic meteorological measurements and historic event loss data are available is short relative to the recurrence intervals of very intense, damaging hurricanes. Additionally, the value of property at risk changes through time. As such, the recent past can only provide limited insight into potential losses from extreme storms in coming years. Here we present some research that seeks to overcome, as far as is possible, the limitations of record length in assessing the possible impacts of near-future hurricanes on insured properties. First, using the archives of the French overseas departments (which included administrative and weather reports, inventories of damage to houses, crops and trees, as well as some meteorological observations after 1950) we reconstructed the spatial patterns of hazard intensity associated with three historical events. They are: i) the 1928 Hurricane (Guadeloupe), ii) Hurricane Betsy (1956, Guadeloupe) and iii) Hurricane David (1979, Martinique). These events were selected because all were damaging, and the information available on each is rich. Then, using a recently developed catastrophe model for hurricanes affecting Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin, we simulated the hypothetical losses to insured properties that the reconstructed events might cause if they were to reoccur today. The model simulated damage due to wind, rainfall-induced flooding and storm surge flooding. These 'what if' scenarios provided an initial indication of the potential present-day exposure of the insurance industry to intense hurricanes. However, we acknowledge that historical events are unlikely to repeat exactly. We therefore extended the study by producing a stochastic event catalogue containing a large number of synthetic but plausible hurricane events. Instrumental data were used as a basis for event generation, but importantly the statistical methods we applied permit

  1. Hurricane Gustav Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Gustav poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Gustav having made landfall along the Louisiana coastline. Poster size is 36"x27"

  2. 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes poster features high quality satellite images of 15 hurricanes which formed in the Atlantic Basin (includes Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean...

  3. Hurricane Ike Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Ike poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-15 shows Hurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward Galveston Island, Texas. Poster size is 36"x27".

  4. 2004 Landfalling Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2004 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes poster is a special edition poster which contains two sets of images of Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, created...

  5. Hurricane Harvey Report : A fact-finding effort in the direct aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in the Greater Houston Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sebastian, A.G.; Lendering, K.T.; Kothuis, B.L.M.; Brand, A.D.; Jonkman, S.N.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Kolen, B.; Comes, M.; Lhermitte, S.L.M.; Meesters, K.J.M.G.; van de Walle, B.A.; Ebrahimi Fard, A.; Cunningham, S.; Khakzad Rostami, N.; Nespeca, V.

    2017-01-01

    On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of approximately 200 km/hour. Harvey caused severe damages in coastal Texas due to extreme winds and storm surge, but will go down in history for record-setting rainfall

  6. Longitudinal Impact of Hurricane Sandy Exposure on Mental Health Symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Rebecca M; Gillezeau, Christina N; Liu, Bian; Lieberman-Cribbin, Wil; Taioli, Emanuela

    2017-08-24

    Hurricane Sandy hit the eastern coast of the United States in October 2012, causing billions of dollars in damage and acute physical and mental health problems. The long-term mental health consequences of the storm and their predictors have not been studied. New York City and Long Island residents completed questionnaires regarding their initial Hurricane Sandy exposure and mental health symptoms at baseline and 1 year later (N = 130). There were statistically significant decreases in anxiety scores (mean difference = -0.33, p Hurricane Sandy has an impact on PTSD symptoms that persists over time. Given the likelihood of more frequent and intense hurricanes due to climate change, future hurricane recovery efforts must consider the long-term effects of hurricane exposure on mental health, especially on PTSD, when providing appropriate assistance and treatment.

  7. Endogenous DNA Damage and Risk of Testicular Germ Cell Tumors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, M B; Sigurdson, A J; Jones, I M; Thomas, C B; Graubard, B I; Korde, L; Greene, M H; McGlynn, K A

    2008-01-18

    Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) are comprised of two histologic groups, seminomas and nonseminomas. We postulated that the possible divergent pathogeneses of these histologies may be partially explained by variable endogenous DNA damage. To assess our hypothesis, we conducted a case-case analysis of seminomas and nonseminomas using the alkaline comet assay to quantify single-strand DNA breaks and alkali-labile sites. The Familial Testicular Cancer study and the U.S. Radiologic Technologists cohort provided 112 TGCT cases (51 seminomas & 61 nonseminomas). A lymphoblastoid cell line was cultured for each patient and the alkaline comet assay was used to determine four parameters: tail DNA, tail length, comet distributed moment (CDM) and Olive tail moment (OTM). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were estimated using logistic regression. Values for tail length, tail DNA, CDM and OTM were modeled as categorical variables using the 50th and 75th percentiles of the seminoma group. Tail DNA was significantly associated with nonseminoma compared to seminoma (OR{sub 50th percentile} = 3.31, 95%CI: 1.00, 10.98; OR{sub 75th percentile} = 3.71, 95%CI: 1.04, 13.20; p for trend=0.039). OTM exhibited similar, albeit statistically non-significant, risk estimates (OR{sub 50th percentile} = 2.27, 95%CI: 0.75, 6.87; OR{sub 75th percentile} = 2.40, 95%CI: 0.75, 7.71; p for trend=0.12) whereas tail length and CDM showed no association. In conclusion, the results for tail DNA and OTM indicate that endogenous DNA damage levels are higher in patients who develop nonseminoma compared with seminoma. This may partly explain the more aggressive biology and younger age-of-onset of this histologic subgroup compared with the relatively less aggressive, later-onset seminoma.

  8. Shear and Turbulence Estimates for Calculation of Wind Turbine Loads and Responses Under Hurricane Strength Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosovic, B.; Bryan, G. H.; Haupt, S. E.

    2012-12-01

    Schwartz et al. (2010) recently reported that the total gross energy-generating offshore wind resource in the United States in waters less than 30m deep is approximately 1000 GW. Estimated offshore generating capacity is thus equivalent to the current generating capacity in the United States. Offshore wind power can therefore play important role in electricity production in the United States. However, most of this resource is located along the East Coast of the United States and in the Gulf of Mexico, areas frequently affected by tropical cyclones including hurricanes. Hurricane strength winds, associated shear and turbulence can affect performance and structural integrity of wind turbines. In a recent study Rose et al. (2012) attempted to estimate the risk to offshore wind turbines from hurricane strength winds over a lifetime of a wind farm (i.e. 20 years). According to Rose et al. turbine tower buckling has been observed in typhoons. They concluded that there is "substantial risk that Category 3 and higher hurricanes can destroy half or more of the turbines at some locations." More robust designs including appropriate controls can mitigate the risk of wind turbine damage. To develop such designs good estimates of turbine loads under hurricane strength winds are essential. We use output from a large-eddy simulation of a hurricane to estimate shear and turbulence intensity over first couple of hundred meters above sea surface. We compute power spectra of three velocity components at several distances from the eye of the hurricane. Based on these spectra analytical spectral forms are developed and included in TurbSim, a stochastic inflow turbulence code developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL, http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/preprocessors/turbsim/). TurbSim provides a numerical simulation including bursts of coherent turbulence associated with organized turbulent structures. It can generate realistic flow conditions that an operating turbine

  9. Lessons from Hurricane Sandy for port resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    New York Harbor was directly in the path of the most damaging part of Hurricane Sandy causing significant impact on many of the : facilities of the Port of New York and New Jersey. The U.S. Coast Guard closed the entire Port to all traffic before the...

  10. Postpartum mental health after Hurricane Katrina: A cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harville Emily W

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Natural disaster is often a cause of psychopathology, and women are vulnerable to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD and depression. Depression is also common after a woman gives birth. However, no research has addressed postpartum women's mental health after natural disaster. Methods Interviews were conducted in 2006–2007 with women who had been pregnant during or shortly after Hurricane Katrina. 292 New Orleans and Baton Rouge women were interviewed at delivery and 2 months postpartum. Depression was assessed using the Edinburgh Depression Scale and PTSD using the Post-Traumatic Stress Checklist. Women were asked about their experience of the hurricane with questions addressing threat, illness, loss, and damage. Chi-square tests and log-binomial/Poisson models were used to calculate associations and relative risks (RR. Results Black women and women with less education were more likely to have had a serious experience of the hurricane. 18% of the sample met the criteria for depression and 13% for PTSD at two months postpartum. Feeling that one's life was in danger was associated with depression and PTSD, as were injury to a family member and severe impact on property. Overall, two or more severe experiences of the storm was associated with an increased risk for both depression (relative risk (RR 1.77, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.08–2.89 and PTSD (RR 3.68, 95% CI 1.80–7.52. Conclusion Postpartum women who experience natural disaster severely are at increased risk for mental health problems, but overall rates of depression and PTSD do not seem to be higher than in studies of the general population.

  11. Hurricane shuts down gulf activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koen, A.D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that producers in the Gulf of Mexico and plant operators in South Louisiana last week were checking for damage wrought by Hurricane Andrew. In its wake Andrew left evacuated rigs and platforms in the gulf and shuttered plants across a wide swath of the Gulf Coast. Operations were beginning to return to normal late last week. Not all gulf operators, especially in the central gulf, expected to return to offshore facilities. And even producers able to book helicopters did not expect to be able to fully assess damage to all offshore installations before the weekend. MMS officials in Washington estimated that 37,500 offshore workers were evacuated from 700 oil and gas installations on the gulf's Outer Continental Shelf. Gulf oil and gas wells account for about 800,000 b/d of oil and one fourth of total U.S. gas production. MMS was awaiting an assessment of hurricane damage before estimating how soon and how much gulf oil and gas production would be restored

  12. Using risk maps to link land value damage and risk as basis of flexible risk management for brownfield redevelopment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, I-chun; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2013-02-01

    Brownfield redevelopment involves numerous uncertain financial risks associated with market demand and land value. To reduce the uncertainty of the specific impact of land value and social costs, this study develops small-scale risk maps to determine the relationship between population risk (PR) and damaged land value (DLV) to facilitate flexible land reutilisation plans. This study used the spatial variability of exposure parameters in each village to develop the contaminated site-specific risk maps. In view of the combination of risk and cost, risk level that most affected land use was mainly 1.00×10(-6) to 1.00×10(-5) in this study area. Village 2 showed the potential for cost-effective conversion with contaminated land development. If the risk of remediation target was set at 5.00×10(-6), the DLV could be reduced by NT$15,005 million for the land developer. The land developer will consider the net benefit by quantifying the trade-off between the changes of land value and the cost of human health. In this study, small-scale risk maps can illuminate the economic incentive potential for contaminated site redevelopment through the adjustment of land value damage and human health risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Hygro thermal simulation to predict the risk of frost damage in masonry : effects of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Aarle, M.A.P.; Schellen, H.L.; van Schijndel, A.W.M.

    2015-01-01

    According to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) climate change will result in an increase of air temperature and rainfall intensities for the Netherlands in winter in future. In this paper we investigate the effect of the risk of frost damage to masonry. The risk of frost damage

  14. A method for assessing frost damage risk in sweet cherry orchards of South Patagonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cittadini, E.D.; Ridder, de N.; Peri, P.L.; Keulen, van H.

    2006-01-01

    Quantification of frost damage risk is important in planning the development of new orchard areas and for decision-making on design and installation of frost control systems. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive method to quantify frost damage risk in different sweet cherry

  15. Evaluating system reliability and targeted hardening strategies of power distribution systems subjected to hurricanes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salman, Abdullahi M.; Li, Yue; Stewart, Mark G.

    2015-01-01

    Over the years, power distribution systems have been vulnerable to extensive damage from hurricanes which can cause power outage resulting in millions of dollars of economic losses and restoration costs. Most of the outage is as a result of failure of distribution support structures. Over the years, various methods of strengthening distribution systems have been proposed and studied. Some of these methods, such as undergrounding of the system, have been shown to be unjustified from an economic point of view. A potential cost-effective strategy is targeted hardening of the system. This, however, requires a method of determining critical parts of a system that when strengthened, will have greater impact on reliability. This paper presents a framework for studying the effectiveness of targeted hardening strategies on power distribution systems subjected to hurricanes. The framework includes a methodology for evaluating system reliability that relates failure of poles and power delivery, determination of critical parts of a system, hurricane hazard analysis, and consideration of decay of distribution poles. The framework also incorporates cost analysis that considers economic losses due to power outage. A notional power distribution system is used to demonstrate the framework by evaluating and comparing the effectiveness of three hardening measures. - Highlight: • Risk assessment of power distribution systems subjected to hurricanes is carried out. • Framework for studying effectiveness of targeted hardening strategies is presented. • A system reliability method is proposed. • Targeted hardening is cost effective for existing systems. • Economic losses due to power outage should be considered for cost analysis.

  16. Hurricane Imaging Radiometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecil, Daniel J.; Biswas, Sayak K.; James, Mark W.; Roberts, J. Brent; Jones, W. Linwood; Johnson, James; Farrar, Spencer; Sahawneh, Saleem; Ruf, Christopher S.; Morris, Mary; hide

    2014-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a synthetic thinned array passive microwave radiometer designed to allow retrieval of surface wind speed in hurricanes, up through category five intensity. The retrieval technology follows the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which measures surface wind speed in hurricanes along a narrow strip beneath the aircraft. HIRAD maps wind speeds in a swath below the aircraft, about 50-60 km wide when flown in the lower stratosphere. HIRAD has flown in the NASA Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment in 2010 on a WB-57 aircraft, and on a Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) in 2012 and 2013 as part of NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) program. The GRIP program included flights over Hurricanes Earl and Karl (2010). The 2012 HS3 deployment did not include any hurricane flights for the UAS carrying HIRAD. The 2013 HS3 flights included one flight over the predecessor to TS Gabrielle, and one flight over Hurricane Ingrid. This presentation will describe the HIRAD instrument, its results from the 2010 and 2013 flights, and potential future developments.

  17. Physical aspects of Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scatena, F.N.; Larsen, Matthew C.

    1991-01-01

    On 18 September 1989 the western part ofHurricane Hugo crossed eastern Puerto Rico and the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF). Storm-facing slopes on the northeastern part of the island that were within 15 km of the eye and received greater than 200 mm of rain were most affected by the storm. In the LEF and nearby area, recurrence intervals associated with Hurricane Hugo were 50 yr for wind velocity, 10 to 31 yr for stream discharge, and 5 yr for rainfall intensity. To compare the magnitudes of the six hurricanes to pass over PuertoRico since 1899, 3 indices were developed using the standardized values of the product of: the maximum sustained wind speed at San Juan squared and storm duration; the square of the product of the maximum sustained wind velocity at San Juan and the ratio of the distance between the hurricane eye and San Juan to the distance between the eye and percentage of average annual rainfall delivered by the storm. Based on these indices, HurricaneHugo was of moderate intensity. However, because of the path of Hurricane Hugo, only one of these six storms (the 1932 storm) caused more damage to the LEF than Hurricane Hugo. Hurricanes of Hugo's magnitude are estimated to pass over the LEF once every 50-60 yr, on average. 

  18. Assessing Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Consequences of Damage to Critical Infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suski, N.; Wuest, C.

    2011-01-01

    Since the publication of 'Critical Foundations: Protecting America's Infrastructure,' there has been a keen understanding of the complexity, interdependencies, and shared responsibility required to protect the nation's most critical assets that are essential to our way of life. The original 5 sectors defined in 1997 have grown to 18 Critical Infrastructures and Key Resources (CIKR), which are discussed in the 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) and its supporting sector-specific plans. The NIPP provides the structure for a national program dedicated to enhanced protection and resiliency of the nation's infrastructure. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) provides in-depth, multi-disciplinary assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence across all 18 sectors at scales ranging from specific facilities to infrastructures spanning multi-state regions, such as the Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) sector. Like many of the CIKR sectors, the ONG sector is comprised of production, processing, distribution, and storage of highly valuable and potentially dangerous commodities. Furthermore, there are significant interdependencies with other sectors, including transportation, communication, finance, and government. Understanding the potentially devastating consequences and collateral damage resulting from a terrorist attack or natural event is an important element of LLNL's infrastructure security programs. Our work began in the energy sector in the late 1990s and quickly expanded other critical infrastructure sectors. We have performed over 600 physical assessments with a particular emphasis on those sectors that utilize, store, or ship potentially hazardous materials and for whom cyber security is important. The success of our approach is based on building awareness of vulnerabilities and risks and working directly with industry partners to collectively advance infrastructure protection. This approach consists of three phases: The Pre

  19. On the relationship between hurricane cost and the integrated wind profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Toumi, R.

    2016-11-01

    It is challenging to identify metrics that best capture hurricane destructive potential and costs. Although it has been found that the sea surface temperature and vertical wind shear can both make considerable changes to the hurricane destructive potential metrics, it is still unknown which plays a more important role. Here we present a new method to reconstruct the historical wind structure of hurricanes that allows us, for the first time, to calculate the correlation of damage with integrated power dissipation and integrated kinetic energy of all hurricanes at landfall since 1988. We find that those metrics, which include the horizontal wind structure, rather than just maximum intensity, are much better correlated with the hurricane cost. The vertical wind shear over the main development region of hurricanes plays a more dominant role than the sea surface temperature in controlling these metrics and therefore also ultimately the cost of hurricanes.

  20. Mangrove forest recovery in the Everglades following Hurricane Wilma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmiento, Daniel; Barr, Jordan; Engel, Vic; Fuentes, Jose D.; Smith, Thomas J.; Zieman, Jay C.

    2009-01-01

    On October 24th, 2005, Hurricane Wilma made landfall on the south western shore of the Florida peninsula. This major disturbance destroyed approximately 30 percent of the mangrove forests in the area. However, the damage to the ecosystem following the hurricane provided researchers at the Florida Coastal Everglades (FCE) LTER site with the rare opportunity to track the recovery process of the mangroves as determined by carbon dioxide (CO2) and energy exchanges, measured along daily and seasonal time scales.

  1. Cooperative Hurricane Network Obs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observations from the Cooperative Hurricane Reporting Network (CHURN), a special network of stations that provided observations when tropical cyclones approached the...

  2. Hurricane Katrina Sediment Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  3. Hurricane Katrina Water Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  4. Hurricane Katrina Soil Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  5. Sex and drug risk behavior pre- and post-emigration among Latino migrant men in post-Hurricane Katrina New Orleans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Jennifer; Burton, Nicole; Schmidt, Norine; Salinas, Oscar; Hembling, John; Aran, Alberto; Shedlin, Michele; Kissinger, Patricia

    2012-01-01

    High rates of sex and drug risk behaviors have been documented among Latino migrant men in the U.S. Whether these behaviors were established in the migrants’ home countries or were adopted in the U.S. has not been described and has implications for prevention strategies. Quarterly surveys were conducted to gather information on selected sex and drug risk practices of Latino migrant men who arrived in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina seeking work. Both kappa scores and McNemar’s tests were performed to determine if practice of these behaviors in home country was similar to practice post-emigration to the U.S. Female sex worker (FSW) patronage, same sex encounters (MSM), and crack cocaine use was more likely to occur post-rather than pre-emigration. Of those who ever engaged in these selected behaviors, most adopted the behavior in the U.S. (i.e. 75.8% of FSW patrons, 72.7% of MSM participants, and 85.7% of crack cocaine users), with the exception of binge drinking (26.8%). Men who were living with a family member were less likely to adopt FSW patronage OR=0.27, CI=0.10-0.76, whereas men who earned >$465 per week were more likely to adopt crack cocaine use OR=6.29 CI=1.29, 30.57. Interventions that facilitate the maintenance of family cohesion and provide strategies for financial management may be useful for reducing sex and drug risk among newly arrived migrants. PMID:22669638

  6. Self-Reported and FEMA Flood Exposure Assessment after Hurricane Sandy: Association with Mental Health Outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wil Lieberman-Cribbin

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy caused extensive physical and economic damage; the long-term mental health consequences are unknown. Flooding is a central component of hurricane exposure, influencing mental health through multiple pathways that unfold over months after flooding recedes. Here we assess the concordance in self-reported and Federal Emergency Management (FEMA flood exposure after Hurricane Sandy and determine the associations between flooding and anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD. Self-reported flood data and mental health symptoms were obtained through validated questionnaires from New York City and Long Island residents (N = 1231 following Sandy. Self-reported flood data was compared to FEMA data obtained from the FEMA Modeling Task Force Hurricane Sandy Impact Analysis. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to determine the relationship between flooding exposure and mental health outcomes. There were significant discrepancies between self-reported and FEMA flood exposure data. Self-reported dichotomous flooding was positively associated with anxiety (ORadj: 1.5 [95% CI: 1.1-1.9], depression (ORadj: 1.7 [1.3-2.2], and PTSD (ORadj: 2.5 [1.8-3.4], while self-reported continuous flooding was associated with depression (ORadj: 1.1 [1.01-1.12] and PTSD (ORadj: 1.2 [1.1-1.2]. Models with FEMA dichotomous flooding (ORadj: 2.1 [1.5-2.8] or FEMA continuous flooding (ORadj: 1.1 [1.1-1.2] were only significantly associated with PTSD. Associations between mental health and flooding vary according to type of flood exposure measure utilized. Future hurricane preparedness and recovery efforts must integrate micro and macro-level flood exposures in order to accurately determine flood exposure risk during storms and realize the long-term importance of flooding on these three mental health symptoms.

  7. A matter of scale: damage from Hurricane Hugo (1989) to U.S. Virgin Islands reefs at the colony, community and whole reef level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Caroline S.

    1993-01-01

    Studies at Buck Island Reef National Monument (St. Croix) and Virgin Islands National Park (St. John) by scientists in the U.S. National Park Service Coral Reef Assessment Program re- vealed the effects of Humcane Hugo on individual coral species, community parameters, and overall reef structure. Effects of the storm varied with depth, coral species, location relative to the storm path, character of the pre-storm communities, and ecological history. Live coral cover, initially less than 30% at all sites, dropped by 40 to 73%. Cover by the dominant species Montastrea annularis de- clined about 35% on the St. John reefs. At Buck Island, Acropora palmata cover, already reduced from 85% to 5% by white band disease and storms, fell to 0.8% after Hugo. Some areas on the south side of Buck Island were reduced to rubble pave- ment while other areas escaped serious damage. Data from cores at Buck Island reveal the influence of wave energy and storm frequency on overall reef character. Patchiness and variation in the responses of different species, zones, and entire reefs to the storm suggest that assessment of long-term trends in reef structure and composition requires analysis of changes at permanent study sites distributed over large areas.

  8. Mapping and Visualization of Storm-Surge Dynamics for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesch, Dean B.

    2009-01-01

    The damages caused by the storm surges from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were significant and occurred over broad areas. Storm-surge maps are among the most useful geospatial datasets for hurricane recovery, impact assessments, and mitigation planning for future storms. Surveyed high-water marks were used to generate a maximum storm-surge surface for Hurricane Katrina extending from eastern Louisiana to Mobile Bay, Alabama. The interpolated surface was intersected with high-resolution lidar elevation data covering the study area to produce a highly detailed digital storm-surge inundation map. The storm-surge dataset and related data are available for display and query in a Web-based viewer application. A unique water-level dataset from a network of portable pressure sensors deployed in the days just prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall captured the hurricane's storm surge. The recorded sensor data provided water-level measurements with a very high temporal resolution at surveyed point locations. The resulting dataset was used to generate a time series of storm-surge surfaces that documents the surge dynamics in a new, spatially explicit way. The temporal information contained in the multiple storm-surge surfaces can be visualized in a number of ways to portray how the surge interacted with and was affected by land surface features. Spatially explicit storm-surge products can be useful for a variety of hurricane impact assessments, especially studies of wetland and land changes where knowledge of the extent and magnitude of storm-surge flooding is critical.

  9. Predicting the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association claim payout of commercial buildings from Hurricane Ike

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. M.; Woods, P. K.; Park, Y. J.; Son, K.

    2013-08-01

    Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there currently is no comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses associated with individual buildings. To address this lack of research, this study will identify vulnerabilities and hurricane indicators, develop metrics to measure the influence of economic losses from hurricanes, and visualize the spatial distribution of vulnerability to evaluate overall hurricane damage. This paper has utilized the Geographic Information System to facilitate collecting and managing data, and has combined vulnerability factors to assess the financial losses suffered by Texas coastal counties. A multiple linear regression method has been applied to develop hurricane economic damage predicting models. To reflect the pecuniary loss, insured loss payment was used as the dependent variable to predict the actual financial damage. Geographical vulnerability indicators, built environment vulnerability indicators, and hurricane indicators were all used as independent variables. Accordingly, the models and findings may possibly provide vital references for government agencies, emergency planners, and insurance companies hoping to predict hurricane damage.

  10. Leisure noise exposure: participation trends, symptoms of hearing damage, and perception of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Elizabeth Francis; Gilliver, Megan; Williams, Warwick

    2013-02-01

    Leisure activities that emit high noise levels have the potential to expose participants to excessive noise exposure, which can result in hearing damage. This study investigated young people's participation in high-noise leisure activities and the relationship between their leisure noise exposure, symptoms of hearing damage, and perception of risk. Participants completed an online survey relating to participation in selected high-noise leisure activities, symptoms of hearing damage, and beliefs about the risk posed by these activities. One thousand 18- to 35-year-old Australian adults completed the survey. Annual noise exposure from the five leisure activities ranged from 0-6.77 times the acceptable noise exposure, with nightclubs posing the greatest risk. Those who attended one noisy activity were more likely to attend others, in particular nightclubs, pubs, and live music events. Noise exposure was correlated with early warning signs of hearing damage and perceived risk of damage. Active young adults who engage in noisy activities are showing early signs of hearing damage. Furthermore, they perceive the risk associated with their activities. The challenge for researchers and hearing health practitioners is to convert self-perceived risk into positive hearing health behaviours for long-term hearing health.

  11. Building infrastructure to prevent disasters like Hurricane Maria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandaragoda, C.; Phuong, J.; Mooney, S.; Stephens, K.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Pieper, K.; Rhoads, W.; Edwards, M.; Pruden, A.; Bales, J.; Clark, E.; Brazil, L.; Leon, M.; McDowell, W. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Tarboton, D. G.; Jones, A. S.; Hutton, E.; Tucker, G. E.; McCready, L.; Peckham, S. D.; Lenhardt, W. C.; Idaszak, R.

    2017-12-01

    2000 words Recovery efforts from natural disasters can be more efficient with data-driven information on current needs and future risks. We aim to advance open-source software infrastructure to support scientific investigation and data-driven decision making with a prototype system using a water quality assessment developed to investigate post-Hurricane Maria drinking water contamination in Puerto Rico. The widespread disruption of water treatment processes and uncertain drinking water quality within distribution systems in Puerto Rico poses risk to human health. However, there is no existing digital infrastructure to scientifically determine the impacts of the hurricane. After every natural disaster, it is difficult to answer elementary questions on how to provide high quality water supplies and health services. This project will archive and make accessible data on environmental variables unique to Puerto Rico, damage caused by Hurricane Maria, and will begin to address time sensitive needs of citizens. The initial focus is to work directly with public utilities to collect and archive samples of biological and inorganic drinking water quality. Our goal is to advance understanding of how the severity of a hazard to human health (e.g., no access to safe culinary water) is related to the sophistication, connectivity, and operations of the physical and related digital infrastructure systems. By rapidly collecting data in the early stages of recovery, we will test the design of an integrated cyberinfrastructure system to for usability of environmental and health data to understand the impacts from natural disasters. We will test and stress the CUAHSI HydroShare data publication mechanisms and capabilities to (1) assess the spatial and temporal presence of waterborne pathogens in public water systems impacted by a natural disaster, (2) demonstrate usability of HydroShare as a clearinghouse to centralize selected datasets related to Hurricane Maria, and (3) develop a

  12. Continental United States Hurricane Strikes

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...

  13. Characterization of Carbon Monoxide Exposure During Hurricane Sandy and Subsequent Nor'easter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnall, Amy; Law, Royal; Heinzerling, Amy; Sircar, Kanta; Damon, Scott; Yip, Fuyuen; Schier, Josh; Bayleyegn, Tesfaye; Wolkin, Amy

    2017-10-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) is an odorless, colorless gas produced by fossil fuel combustion. On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy moved ashore near Atlantic City, New Jersey, causing widespread morbidity and mortality, $30 to $50 billion in economic damage, and 8.5 million households to be without power. The combination of power outages and unusually low temperatures led people to use alternate power sources, placing many at risk for CO exposure. We examined Hurricane Sandy-related CO exposures from multiple perspectives to help identify risk factors and develop strategies to prevent future exposures. This report combined data from 3 separate sources (health departments, poison centers via the National Poison Data System, and state and local public information officers). Results indicated that the number of CO exposures in the wake of Hurricane Sandy was significantly greater than in previous years. The persons affected were mostly females and those in younger age categories and, despite messaging, most CO exposures occurred from improper generator use. Our findings emphasize the continued importance of CO-related communication and ongoing surveillance of CO exposures to support public health response and prevention during and after disasters. Additionally, regional poison centers can be a critical resource for potential on-site management, public health promotion, and disaster-related CO exposure surveillance. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:562-567).

  14. Hurricane Katrina: A Teachable Moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, Peggy

    2009-01-01

    This article presents suggestions for integrating the phenomenon of hurricanes into the teaching of high school fluid mechanics. Students come to understand core science concepts in the context of their impact upon both the environment and human populations. Suggestions for using information about hurricanes, particularly Hurricane Katrina, in a…

  15. Contrasting Hydrodynamic and Environmental Effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Ike in a Highly Industrialized Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiaghadi, A.; Rifai, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    It is commonly believed that storm surge is the most destructive aspect of hurricanes. However, massive rainfall with a return period of 100 years or more induced by hurricanes can cause more catastrophic damage than losses caused by storm surge as demonstrated recently by hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. In this study the hydrodynamics and environmental effects of hurricanes Ike and Harvey were compared and contrasted by linking hydrodynamic flow models with water quality models to simulate spills from storage tanks located in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC). Hurricane Ike with a maximum surge of 5.3 meters in Galveston Bay and Harvey with a maximum rainfall of 1.25 meters both struck the HSC region in Texas in 2008 and 2017, respectively. Both events resulted in numerous spills from municipal and industrial facilities, hazardous waste sites, superfund sites, and landfills. The Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) was coupled with the SWAN+ADCIRC hurricane simulation model to simulate Hurricane Ike and EFDC was coupled with USGS flow boundary conditions to model Hurricane Harvey. A conservative dye release was used to simulate a chemical release during each event. The results showed Hurricane Harvey caused higher water surface elevations within the HSC accompanied by longer and wider-spread land inundation. In contrast, higher water surface elevations were observed within the shallow side bays during Hurricane Ike that caused sediment resuspension and repartitioning of pollutants. Rapid spill mass transportation was observed for both hurricanes; 50% of total spill mass reached Galveston Bay in 20 and 22 hours after a spill event for Hurricane Harvey and Ike, respectively, and more than 90% of the spill mass reached the bay in 36 and 48 hours, respectively. Unlike Hurricane Harvey, the conservative tracer was spread almost 2.5 km upstream of the releasing point for Hurricane Ike due to surge. However, during Harvey, 35% more land was affected by the spilled

  16. High EDSS can predict risk for upper urinary tract damage in patients with multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ineichen, Benjamin V; Schneider, Marc P; Hlavica, Martin; Hagenbuch, Niels; Linnebank, Michael; Kessler, Thomas M

    2018-04-01

    Neurogenic lower urinary tract dysfunction (NLUTD) is very common in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), and it might jeopardize renal function and thereby increase mortality. Although there are well-known urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage, no clinical prediction parameters are available. We aimed to assess clinical parameters potentially predicting urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage. A consecutive series of 141 patients with MS referred from neurologists for primary neuro-urological work-up including urodynamics were prospectively evaluated. Clinical parameters taken into account were age, sex, duration, and clinical course of MS and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Multivariate modeling revealed EDSS as a clinical parameter significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.71, p = 0.02). Using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, an EDSS of 5.0 as cutoff showed a sensitivity of 86%-87% and a specificity of 52% for at least one urodynamic risk factor for upper urinary tract damage. High EDSS is significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage and allows a risk-dependent stratification in daily neurological clinical practice to identify MS patients requiring further neuro-urological assessment and treatment.

  17. A tool for rapid post-hurricane urban tree debris estimates using high resolution aerial imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoltan Szantoi; Sparkle L Malone; Francisco Escobedo; Orlando Misas; Scot Smith; Bon Dewitt

    2012-01-01

    Coastal communities in the southeast United States have regularly experienced severe hurricane impacts. To better facilitate recovery efforts in these communities following natural disasters, state and federal agencies must respond quickly with information regarding the extent and severity of hurricane damage and the amount of tree debris volume. A tool was developed...

  18. Predicting the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association claim payout of commercial buildings from Hurricane Ike

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, J. M.; Woods, P. K.; Park, Y. J.; Son, K.

    2013-01-01

    Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there currently is no comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses associated with individual bu...

  19. Lessons from Crisis Recovery in Schools: How Hurricanes Impacted Schools, Families and the Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howat, Holly; Curtis, Nikki; Landry, Shauna; Farmer, Kara; Kroll, Tobias; Douglass, Jill

    2012-01-01

    This article examines school and school district-level efforts to reopen schools after significant damage from hurricanes. Through an empirical, qualitative research design, four themes emerged as critical to the hurricane recovery process: the importance of communication, resolving tension, coordinating with other services and learning from the…

  20. Initial estimates of hurricane Katrina impacts of Mississippi gulf coast forest resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick A. Glass; Sonja N. Oswalt

    2007-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina pummeled the Gulf Coast of Mississippi on August 29, 2005. The eye wall of the storm passed directly over Hancock and Pearl River Counties. Harrison, Jackson, Stone, and George Counties on the windward side of the hurricane's path sustained severe damage before the storm's strength dissipated as it moved farther inland (fig. 1).

  1. Performance of Oil Infrastructure during Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernier, C.; Kameshwar, S.; Padgett, J.

    2017-12-01

    Three major refining centers - Corpus Christi, Houston, and Beaumont/Port Arthur - were affected during Hurricane Harvey. Damage to oil infrastructure, especially aboveground storage tanks (ASTs), caused the release of more than a million gallons of hazardous chemicals in the environment. The objective of this presentation is to identify and gain a better understanding of the different damage mechanisms that occurred during Harvey in order to avoid similar failures during future hurricane events. First, a qualitative description of the damage suffered by ASTs during Hurricane Harvey is presented. Analysis of aerial imagery and incident reports indicate that almost all spills were caused by rainfall and the associated flooding. The largest spill was caused by two large ASTs that floated due to flooding in the Houston Ship Channel releasing 500,000 gallons of gasoline. The vulnerability of ASTs subjected to flooding was already well known and documented from previous storm events. In addition to flooding, Harvey also exposed the vulnerability of ASTs with external floating roof to extreme rainfall; more than 15 floating roofs sank or tilted due to rain water accumulation on them, releasing pollutants in the atmosphere. Secondly, recent fragility models developed by the authors are presented which allow structural vulnerability assessment of floating roofs during rainfall events and ASTs during flood events. The fragility models are then coupled with Harvey rainfall and flood empirical data to identify the conditions (i.e.: internal liquid height or density, drainage system design and efficiency, etc.) that could have led to the observed failures during Hurricane Harvey. Finally, the conditions causing tank failures are studied to propose mitigation measures to prevent future AST failures during severe storm, flood, or rainfall events.

  2. Increased Sensitization to Mold Allergens Measured by Intradermal Skin Testing following Hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saporta, Diego; Hurst, David

    2017-01-01

    Objective . To report on changes in sensitivity to mold allergens determined by changes in intradermal skin testing reactivity, after exposure to two severe hurricanes. Methods . A random, retrospective allergy charts review divided into 2 groups of 100 patients each: Group A, patients tested between 2003 and 2010 prior to hurricanes, and Group B, patients tested in 2014 and 2015 following hurricanes. Reactivity to eighteen molds was determined by intradermal skin testing. Test results, age, and respiratory symptoms were recorded. Chi-square test determined reactivity/sensitivity differences between groups. Results . Posthurricane patients had 34.6 times more positive results ( p hurricanes ( p hurricanes ( p hurricanes. This supports climatologists' hypothesis that environmental changes resulting from hurricanes can be a health risk as reflected in increased allergic sensitivities and symptoms and has significant implications for physicians treating patients from affected areas.

  3. Adapting ecological risk valuation for natural resource damage assessment in water pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuzhen; Wu, Desheng

    2018-07-01

    Ecological risk assessment can address requirements of natural resource damage assessment by quantifying the magnitude of possible damages to the ecosystem. This paper investigates an approach to assess water damages from pollution incident on the basis of concentrations of contaminants. The baseline of water pollution is determined with not-to-exceed concentration of contaminants required by water quality standards. The values of damage cost to water quality are estimated through sewage treatment cost. To get a reliable estimate of treatment cost, DEA is employed to classify samples of sewage plants based on their efficiency of sewage treatment. And exponential fitting is adopted to determine the relation between treatment cost and the decrease of COCs. The range of damage costs is determined through the fitting curves respectively based on efficient and inefficient samples. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Risks and benefits of the interventions aimed at minimizing nuclear damage in the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossiello, L.A.; Failla, L.

    1997-01-01

    The damages that the absorption of ionizing radiation (i.r.) can cause to humans may be classified as 1) nonstochastic (somatic or deterministic) or 2) stochastic (probabilistic) , which result, for example, from high doses of i.r. absorbed after a serious nuclear accident. Though the Chernobyl case involved both kinds of damage, this paper deals only with stochastic damage risk, and confine our considerations to individuals who were directly Affected and received high i.r. doses. The purpose of this paper is to provide elements on which to base future decisions on the evacuation and return of populations affected by serious nuclear accidents. Unlike the abundant literature on the subject, and as a necessary complement thereto within the bounds of a strict synthesis, to identify the most significant parameters applicable to single individuals rather than to the population at large, and referring solely to risks of stochastic damage

  5. A risk assessment method for multi-site damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, Harry Russell, Jr.

    This research focused on developing probabilistic methods suitable for computing small probabilities of failure, e.g., 10sp{-6}, of structures subject to multi-site damage (MSD). MSD is defined as the simultaneous development of fatigue cracks at multiple sites in the same structural element such that the fatigue cracks may coalesce to form one large crack. MSD is modeled as an array of collinear cracks with random initial crack lengths with the centers of the initial cracks spaced uniformly apart. The data used was chosen to be representative of aluminum structures. The structure is considered failed whenever any two adjacent cracks link up. A fatigue computer model is developed that can accurately and efficiently grow a collinear array of arbitrary length cracks from initial size until failure. An algorithm is developed to compute the stress intensity factors of all cracks considering all interaction effects. The probability of failure of two to 100 cracks is studied. Lower bounds on the probability of failure are developed based upon the probability of the largest crack exceeding a critical crack size. The critical crack size is based on the initial crack size that will grow across the ligament when the neighboring crack has zero length. The probability is evaluated using extreme value theory. An upper bound is based on the probability of the maximum sum of initial cracks being greater than a critical crack size. A weakest link sampling approach is developed that can accurately and efficiently compute small probabilities of failure. This methodology is based on predicting the weakest link, i.e., the two cracks to link up first, for a realization of initial crack sizes, and computing the cycles-to-failure using these two cracks. Criteria to determine the weakest link are discussed. Probability results using the weakest link sampling method are compared to Monte Carlo-based benchmark results. The results indicate that very small probabilities can be computed

  6. Economic estimation of risk and compensation of damage from accidents in power engineering objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesnykh, V.V.

    1996-01-01

    Place and basic peculiarities of the task relative to compensation of damage due to accidents in the problem on technical-economical studies of the power engineering objects, including NPPs, are analyzed. Certain approaches in the task of the risk economical estimates and basic provisions of the economical damage compensation system are presented. Description of imitated and analytical approach in the task of estimating financial state is given and certain study results are presented. 11 refs., 8 figs

  7. Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

  8. Hurricane Harvey Report: A fact-finding effort in the direct aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in the Greater Houston Region

    OpenAIRE

    Sebastian, A.G.; Lendering, K.T.; Kothuis, B.L.M.; Brand, A.D.; Jonkman, S.N.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Kolen, B.; Comes, M.; Lhermitte, S.L.M.; Meesters, K.J.M.G.; van de Walle, B.A.; Ebrahimi Fard, A.; Cunningham, S.; Khakzad Rostami, N.; Nespeca, V.

    2017-01-01

    On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of approximately 200 km/hour. Harvey caused severe damages in coastal Texas due to extreme winds and storm surge, but will go down in history for record-setting rainfall totals and flood-related damages. Across large portions of southeast Texas, rainfall totals during the six-day period between August 25 and 31, 2017 were amongst the highest ever recorded, causing flo...

  9. Hurricane Katrina and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrara, Vincenzo

    2005-01-01

    Serious and widely reported scientific analyses and assessments have called attention to climate changes and to the additional risks the world now faces. Through science has not yet provided proof positive of a connection between the increased intensity of extreme weather events and climate change, there can be no valid reason for failing to hedge the risk with preventive action. The catastrophe that struck New Orleans had can been predicted since the 1990s. The 2050 Coast Plan for reducing the vulnerability of the Louisiana coast and preventing hurricane disasters had been approved by the local authorities but not the federal government. Partly because of its cost, it was never carried into effect [it

  10. Microseisms from Hurricane "Hilda".

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Bremaecker, J C

    1965-06-25

    As hurricane "Hilda" crossed the Gulf of Mexico the dominant period of the microseisms shifted from about 8 to 5 seconds as the eye reached water about 150 to 200 meters deep. The conversion of wind energy to microseismic energy is most efficient in water depths from 20 to 200 meters. There is no evidence that two periods, one twice the other, are present.

  11. Florida Department of Health Workers’ Response to 2004 Hurricanes: A Qualitative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herberman Mash, Holly B.; Fullerton, Carol S.; Kowalski-Trakofler, Kathleen; Reissman, Dori B.; Scharf, Ted; Shultz, James M.; Ursano, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Examinations of the demands on public health workers after disaster exposure have been limited. Workers provide emergency care while simultaneously risking injury, damage to personal property, and threats to their own and their family’s safety. We examined the disaster management experiences of 4323 Florida Department of Health workers 9 months after their response to 4 hurricanes and 1 tropical storm during a 7-week period in August and September of 2004. Methods Participants completed a self-report questionnaire focused on work performance, mental and physical health, daily functioning, sleep disturbance, physiological arousal, and injury and work demand at the time of the hurricanes, and answered open-ended questions that described their experiences in more detail. Results A qualitative analysis conducted from the write-in data yielded 4 domains: (1) work/life balance; (2) training for disaster response role; (3) workplace support; and (4) recovery. Conclusions Study findings highlighted a number of concerns that are important to public health workers who provide emergency care after a disaster and, in particular, multiple disasters such as during the 2004 hurricane season. The findings also yielded important recommendations for emergency public health preparedness. PMID:24618166

  12. Florida Department of Health workers' response to 2004 hurricanes: a qualitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herberman Mash, Holly B; Fullerton, Carol S; Kowalski-Trakofler, Kathleen; Reissman, Dori B; Scharf, Ted; Shultz, James M; Ursano, Robert J

    2013-04-01

    Examinations of the demands on public health workers after disaster exposure have been limited. Workers provide emergency care while simultaneously risking injury, damage to personal property, and threats to their own and their family's safety. We examined the disaster management experiences of 4323 Florida Department of Health workers 9 months after their response to 4 hurricanes and 1 tropical storm during a 7-week period in August and September of 2004. Participants completed a self-report questionnaire focused on work performance, mental and physical health, daily functioning, sleep disturbance, physiological arousal, and injury and work demand at the time of the hurricanes, and answered open-ended questions that described their experiences in more detail. A qualitative analysis conducted from the write-in data yielded 4 domains: (1) work/life balance; (2) training for disaster response role; (3) workplace support; and (4) recovery. Study findings highlighted a number of concerns that are important to public health workers who provide emergency care after a disaster and, in particular, multiple disasters such as during the 2004 hurricane season. The findings also yielded important recommendations for emergency public health preparedness.

  13. Mold exposure and health effects following hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbeau, Deborah N; Grimsley, L Faye; White, LuAnn E; El-Dahr, Jane M; Lichtveld, Maureen

    2010-01-01

    The extensive flooding in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita created conditions ideal for indoor mold growth, raising concerns about the possible adverse health effects associated with indoor mold exposure. Studies evaluating the levels of indoor and outdoor molds in the months following the hurricanes found high levels of mold growth. Homes with greater flood damage, especially those with >3 feet of indoor flooding, demonstrated higher levels of mold growth compared with homes with little or no flooding. Water intrusion due to roof damage was also associated with mold growth. However, no increase in the occurrence of adverse health outcomes has been observed in published reports to date. This article considers reasons why studies of mold exposure after the hurricane do not show a greater health impact.

  14. Hurricane Resilient Wind Plant Concept Study Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dibra, Besart [Keystone Engineering Inc., Vonore, TN (United States); Finucane, Zachary [Keystone Engineering Inc., Vonore, TN (United States); Foley, Benjamin [Keystone Engineering Inc., Vonore, TN (United States); Hall, Rudy [Keystone Engineering Inc., Vonore, TN (United States); Damiani, Rick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Maples, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Parker, Zachary [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Robertson, Amy [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Scott, George [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Stehly, Tyler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wendt, Fabian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Andersen, Mads Boel Overgaard [Siemens Wind Power A/S, Brande (Denmark); Standish, Kevin [Siemens Wind Power A/S, Brande (Denmark); Lee, Ken [Wetzel Engineering Inc., Round Rock, TX (United States); Raina, Amool [Wetzel Engineering Inc., Round Rock, TX (United States); Wetzel, Kyle [Wetzel Engineering Inc., Round Rock, TX (United States); Musial, Walter [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Schreck, Scott [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Hurricanes occur over much of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, from Long Island to the U.S.-Mexico border, encompassing much of the nation's primary offshore wind resource. Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall as far north as North Carolina, with Category 3 hurricanes reaching New York with some frequency. Along the US West coast, typhoons strike with similar frequency and severity. At present, offshore wind turbine design practices do not fully consider the severe operating conditions imposed by hurricanes. Although universally applied to most turbine designs, International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standards do not sufficiently address the duration, directionality, magnitude, or character of hurricanes. To assess advanced design features that could mitigate hurricane loading in various ways, this Hurricane-Resilient Wind Plant Concept Study considered a concept design study of a 500-megawatt (MW) wind power plant consisting of 10-MW wind turbines deployed in 25-meter (m) water depths in the Western Gulf of Mexico. This location was selected because hurricane frequency and severity provided a unique set of design challenges that would enable assessment of hurricane risk and projection of cost of energy (COE) changes, all in response to specific U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) objectives. Notably, the concept study pursued a holistic approach that incorporated multiple advanced system elements at the wind turbine and wind power plant levels to meet objectives for system performance and reduced COE. Principal turbine system elements included a 10-MW rotor with structurally efficient, low-solidity blades; a lightweight, permanent-magnet, direct-drive generator, and an innovative fixed substructure. At the wind power plant level, turbines were arrayed in a large-scale wind power plant in a manner aimed at balancing energy production against capital, installation, and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve significant overall reductions in

  15. Wind vs Water in Hurricanes: The Challenge of Multi-peril Hazard Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    With the advancing threat of Sea Level Rise much of the U. S. is in danger of falling into the "protection gap". Residential property flood risk is not yet covered by the insurance market. Many coastal properties are not paying into the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) at premiums commensurate with the risk. This is exasperated by the program being deep in debt, despite only covering a fraction of the potential loss, while windstorm insurance covers up to replacement value. This results in a battle that benefits nobody. Any significant hurricane will include both wind and storm surge perils at the same time and any coastal property has to contend with the risk of damage by both. If you have extensive flood damage your wind storm policy might deny your claim and your flood policy (if you even have one) will in most cases be constrained to a $250,000 limit. Bring on the litigators! Some homeowners will claim that the wind destroyed the home first and then it was carried away by flood waters or pulverized by waves. Insurers might respond that the storm surge did all the damage and deny the claim. We've seen this already following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and Hurricane Ike in 2008, with thousands of litigation claims and a cottage industry of scientists serving as expert witnesses on both sides of the aisle. Congress responded in 2012 with the Coastal Act, which provided an "unfunded mandate" directing NOAA to provide wind and water level data to FEMA for input to their "Coastal Formula" for attributing loss to wind and water. The results of the formula would then limit the amount paid by the NFIP by subtracting out the wind loss portion. The Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA) went further by assembling a panel of experts to recommend guidelines for how the state should respond to future hurricane impacting properties on the Texas coast. The expert panel report was released in April of 2016, and TWIA is currently developing a comprehensive

  16. Age and metabolic risk factors associated with oxidatively damaged DNA in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løhr, Mille; Jensen, Annie; Eriksen, Louise

    2015-01-01

    Aging is associated with oxidative stress-generated damage to DNA and this could be related to metabolic disturbances. This study investigated the association between levels of oxidatively damaged DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and metabolic risk factors in 1,019 subjects, aged...... 18-93 years. DNA damage was analyzed as strand breaks by the comet assay and levels of formamidopyrimidine (FPG-) and human 8-oxoguanine DNA glycosylase 1 (hOGG1)-sensitive sites There was an association between age and levels of FPG-sensitive sites for women, but not for men. The same tendency......, cholesterol and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c). In the group of men, there were significant positive associations between alcohol intake, HbA1c and FPG-sensitive sites in multivariate analysis. The levels of metabolic risk factors were positively associated with age, yet only few subjects fulfilled all...

  17. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  18. Hurricane Katrina Poster (August 28, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Katrina poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-18 shows a very large Hurricane Katrina as a category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on August 28, 2005....

  19. Hurricane Rita Poster (September 22, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Rita poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Rita as a category-4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on September 22, 2005. Poster size is...

  20. Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurricane events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, James; Duenas-Osorio, Leonardo; Stein, Robert; Subramanian, Devika

    2010-01-01

    Large tropical cyclones cause severe damage to major cities along the United States Gulf Coast annually. A diverse collection of engineering and statistical models are currently used to estimate the geographical distribution of power outage probabilities stemming from these hurricanes to aid in storm preparedness and recovery efforts. Graph theoretic studies of power networks have separately attempted to link abstract network topology to transmission and distribution system reliability. However, few works have employed both techniques to unravel the intimate connection between network damage arising from storms, topology, and system reliability. This investigation presents a new methodology combining hurricane damage predictions and topological assessment to characterize the impact of hurricanes upon power system reliability. Component fragility models are applied to predict failure probability for individual transmission and distribution power network elements simultaneously. The damage model is calibrated using power network component failure data for Harris County, TX, USA caused by Hurricane Ike in September of 2008, resulting in a mean outage prediction error of 15.59% and low standard deviation. Simulated hurricane events are then applied to measure the hurricane reliability of three topologically distinct transmission networks. The rate of system performance decline is shown to depend on their topological structure. Reliability is found to correlate directly with topological features, such as network meshedness, centrality, and clustering, and the compact irregular ring mesh topology is identified as particularly favorable, which can influence regional lifeline policy for retrofit and hardening activities to withstand hurricane events.

  1. Brief communication "Hurricane Irene: a wake-up call for New York City?"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. J. H. Aerts

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The weakening of Irene from a Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm resulted in less damage in New York City (NYC than initially was anticipated. It is widely recognized that the storm surge and associated flooding could have been much more severe. In a recent study, we showed that a direct hit to the city from a hurricane may expose an enormous number of people to flooding. A major hurricane has the potential to cause large-scale damage in NYC. The city's resilience to flooding can be increased by improving and integrating flood insurance, flood zoning, and building code policies.

  2. Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

    2017-04-01

    This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical

  3. Hurricane Irene: a Wake Up Call for New York City?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Botzen, W.J.W.

    2012-01-01

    The weakening of Irene from a Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm resulted in less damage in New York City (NYC) than initially was anticipated. It is widely recognized that the storm surge and associated flooding could have been much more severe. In a recent study, we showed that a direct hit

  4. Gusts and Shear in an Idealized LES-modeled Hurricane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worsnop, R.; Lundquist, J. K.; Bryan, G. H.; Damiani, R.; Musial, W.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical cyclone winds can cause extreme loading and damage to coastal structures such as buildings and energy infrastructure. Offshore wind energy development is underway along the US East Coast where hurricanes pose a substantial risk. Understanding wind gusts, gust factor, shear, and veer in the hurricane boundary layer (HBL) can help manufacturers assess risk and design wind turbines to better withstand these extreme wind conditions. Because of the paucity of observational data at low-levels (200 m and below), we use the Cloud Model Version I (CM1) large-eddy simulation numerical model to simulate high spatial- (10 m) and temporal- (0.1 s) resolution data. This unique dataset is used to answer the following questions: do severe mean wind speeds and gusts that exceed current design limits occur?; how does the gust factor vary with distance from the eye?; and lastly, how does wind direction vary horizontally and with height? We find that mean winds and gusts near the eyewall can exceed current turbine design thresholds of 50 m s-1 and 70 m s-1, respectively. Gust factors are greatest at the eye-eyewall interface just inward of the peak gust location and can exceed the 1.4 value used to convert a 50 m s-1 reference wind speed to a 50-year 3-second gust. Strong veer (15-30 degrees) across a 120 m-layer suggests that veer should be assessed against standard design prescriptions. Lastly, wind directions can shift 10-25 degrees in durations shorter than 10 minutes, which can challenge structures designed to endure winds from a consistent direction for periods longer than 10 minutes, including wind turbines.

  5. Patellofemoral Instability in Children: Correlation Between Risk Factors, Injury Patterns, and Severity of Cartilage Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hee Kyung; Shiraj, Sahar; Kang, Chang Ho; Anton, Christopher; Kim, Dong Hoon; Horn, Paul S

    2016-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare MRI findings between groups with and without patellofemoral instability and to correlate the MRI findings with the severity of patellar cartilage damage. Fifty-three children with patellofemoral instability and 53 age- and sex-matched children without patellofemoral instability (15.9 ± 2.4 years) were included. Knee MRI with T2-weighted mapping was performed. On MR images, femoral trochlear dysplasia, patellofemoral malalignment, medial retinaculum injury, and bone marrow edema were documented. The degree of patellar cartilage damage was evaluated on MR images by use of a morphologic grading scale (0-4) and on T2 maps with mean T2 values at the medial, central, and lateral facets. MRI findings were compared between the two groups. In cases of patellofemoral instability, MRI findings were correlated with the severity of cartilage damage at each region. Trochlear structure and alignment were significantly different between the two groups (Wilcoxon p patellofemoral instability, a high-riding patella was associated with central patellar cartilage damage with a higher morphologic grade and T2 value (Spearman p patellofemoral instability have significantly different trochlear structure and alignment than those who do not, and these differences are known risk factors for patellofemoral instability. However, the only risk factors or injury patterns that directly correlated with the severity of patellar cartilage damage were patella alta, medial stabilizer injury, and bone marrow edema.

  6. Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

    2014-05-01

    Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P

  7. Relationships between common forest metrics and realized impacts of Hurricane Katrina on forest resources in Mississippi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonja N. Oswalt; Christopher M. Oswalt

    2008-01-01

    This paper compares and contrasts hurricane-related damage recorded across the Mississippi landscape in the 2 years following Katrina with initial damage assessments based on modeled parameters by the USDA Forest Service. Logistic and multiple regressions are used to evaluate the influence of stand characteristics on tree damage probability. Specifically, this paper...

  8. Public Talks and Science Listens: A Community-Based Participatory Approach to Characterizing Environmental Health Risk Perceptions and Assessing Recovery Needs in the Wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, J.; Parras, B.; St. Marie, R.; Subra, W.; Petronella, S.; Gorenstein, J.; Fuchs-Young, R.; Santa, R.K.; Chavarria, A.; Ward, J.; Diamond, P.

    2009-01-01

    In response to the human health threats stemming from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, inter-disciplinary working groups representing P30-funded Centers of the National Institute Environmental Health Sciences were created to assess threats posed by mold, harmful alga blooms, chemical toxicants, and various infectious agents at selected sites throughout the hurricane impact zone. Because of proximity to impacted areas, UTMB NIEHS Center in Environmental Toxicology was charged with coordinating direct community outreach efforts, primarily in south Louisiana. In early October 2005, UTMB/NIEHS Center Community Outreach and Education Core, in collaboration with outreach counterparts at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center @ Smithville TX/Center for Research in Environmental Disease sent two groups into southern Louisiana. One group used Lafourche Parish as a base to deliver humanitarian aid and assess local needs for additional supplies during local recovery/reclamation. A second group, ranging through New Iberia, New Orleans, Chalmette, rural Terrebonne, Lafourche and Jefferson Parishes and Baton Rouge met with community environmental leaders, emergency personnel and local citizens to 1) sample public risk perceptions, 2) evaluate the scope and reach of ongoing risk communication efforts, and 3) determine how the NIEHS could best collaborate with local groups in environmental health research and local capacity building efforts. This scoping survey identified specific information gaps limiting efficacy of risk communication, produced a community “wish list” of potential collaborative research projects. The project provided useful heuristics for disaster response and management planning and a platform for future collaborative efforts in environmental health assessment and risk communication with local advocacy groups in south Terrebonne-Lafourche parishes. PMID:20508756

  9. Public Talks and Science Listens: A Community-Based Participatory Approach to Characterizing Environmental Health Risk Perceptions and Assessing Recovery needs in the Wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Sullivan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In response to the human health threats stemming from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, inter-disciplinary working groups representing P30-funded Centers of the National Institute Environmental Health Sciences were created to assess threats posed by mold, harmful alga blooms, chemical toxicants, and various infectious agents at selected sites throughout the hurricane impact zone. Because of proximity to impacted areas, UTMB NIEHS Center in Environmental Toxicology was charged with coordinating direct community outreach efforts, primarily in south Louisiana. In early October 2005, UTMB/NIEHS Center Community Outreach and Education Core, in collaboration with outreach counterparts at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center @ Smithville TX/Center for Research in Environmental Disease sent two groups into southern Louisiana. One group used Lafourche Parish as a base to deliver humanitarian aid and assess local needs for additional supplies during local recovery/reclamation. A second group, ranging through New Iberia, New Orleans, Chalmette, rural Terrebonne, Lafourche and Jefferson Parishes and Baton Rouge met with community environmental leaders, emergency personnel and local citizens to 1 sample public risk perceptions, 2 evaluate the scope and reach of ongoing risk communication efforts, and 3 determine how the NIEHS could best collaborate with local groups in environmental health research and local capacity building efforts. This scoping survey identified specific information gaps limiting efficacy of risk communication, produced a community “wish list” of potential collaborative research projects. The project provided useful heuristics for disaster response and management planning and a platform for future collaborative efforts in environmental health assessment and risk communication with local advocacy groups in south Terrebonne-Lafourche parishes.

  10. Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Glantz

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time.

    Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region.

    The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1.

    Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on

  11. Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glantz, M. H.

    2008-04-01

    By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time. Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region. The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1). Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on the order of 20 feet or so. The Ninth Ward, heavily

  12. Sun damage in ultraviolet photographs correlates with phenotypic melanoma risk factors in 12-year-old children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamble, Ryan G; Asdigian, Nancy L; Aalborg, Jenny; Gonzalez, Victoria; Box, Neil F; Huff, Laura S; Barón, Anna E; Morelli, Joseph G; Mokrohisky, Stefan T; Crane, Lori A; Dellavalle, Robert P

    2012-10-01

    Ultraviolet (UV) photography has been used to motivate sun safety in behavioral interventions. The relationship between sun damage shown in UV photographs and melanoma risk has not been systematically investigated. To examine the relationship between severity of sun damage in UV photographs and phenotypic melanoma risk factors in children. UV, standard visible and cross-polarized photographs were recorded for 585 children. Computer software quantified sun damage. Full-body nevus counts, skin color by colorimetry, facial freckling, hair and eye color were collected in skin examinations. Demographic data were collected in telephone interviews of parents. Among 12-year-old children, sun damage shown in UV photographs correlated with phenotypic melanoma risk factors. Sun damage was greatest for children who were non-Hispanic white and those who had red hair, blue eyes, increased facial freckling, light skin and greater number of nevi (all P values photographs. Freckling was the strongest predictor of sun damage in visible and UV photographs. All other phenotypic melanoma risk factors were also predictors for the UV photographs. Differences in software algorithms used to score the photographs could produce different results. UV photographs portray more sun damage in children with higher risk for melanoma based on phenotype. Therefore sun protection interventions targeting those with greater sun damage on UV photographs will target those at higher melanoma risk. This study establishes reference ranges dermatologists can use to assess sun damage in their pediatric patients. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A diary of hurricane Hugo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Counts, C S

    1989-12-01

    Charleston, South Carolina was the recent victim of Hurricane Hugo. This article recalls the events that occurred before, during, and after the hurricane struck. The focus is on four outpatient dialysis units in that area. It is a story from which others may learn more about emergency preparedness.

  14. Hurricane Season: Are You Ready?

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Hurricanes are one of Mother Nature’s most powerful forces. Host Bret Atkins talks with CDC’s National Center for Environmental Health Director Dr. Chris Portier about the main threats of a hurricane and how you can prepare.

  15. Review of the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment: internal events and core damage frequency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilberg, D.; Shiu, K.; Hanan, N.; Anavim, E.

    1985-11-01

    A review of the Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating its risks in relation to those identified in the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400). The scope of the review was limited to the ''front end'' part, i.e., to the evaluation of the frequencies of states in which core damage may occur. Furthermore, the review considered only internally generated accidents, consistent with the scope of the PRA. The review included an assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the Shoreham study. It also encompassed a reevaluation of the main results within the scope and general methodological framework of the Shoreham PRA, including both qualitative and quantitative analyses of accident initiators, data bases, and accident sequences which result in initiation of core damage. Specific comparisons are given between the Shoreham study, the results of the present review, and the WASH-1400 BWR, for the core damage frequency. The effect of modeling uncertainties was considered by a limited sensitivity study so as to show how the results would change if other assumptions were made. This review provides an independently assessed point value estimate of core damage frequency and describes the major contributors, by frontline systems and by accident sequences. 17 figs., 81 tabs

  16. Comparing vegetation cover in the Santee Experimental Forest, South Carolina (USA), before and after hurricane Hugo: 1989-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovanni R. Cosentino

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Hugo struck the coast of South Carolina on September 21, 1989 as a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Landsat Thematic mapper was utilized to determine the extent of damage experienced at the Santee Experimental Forest (SEF) (a part of Francis Marion National Forest) in South Carolina. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the...

  17. Hydrologic aspects of Hurricane Hugo in South Carolina, September 1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuck-Kolben, R. E.; Cherry, R.N.

    1995-01-01

    Hurricane Hugo, with winds in excess of 135 miles per hour(mi/h), made landfall near Charleston, S.C., early on the morning of September 22, 1989. It was the most destructive hurricane ever experienced in South Carolina. The storm caused 35 deaths and $7 billion in property damage in South Carolina (Purvis, 1990).This report documents some hydrologic effects of Hurricane Hugo along the South Carolina coast. The report includes maps showing storm-tide stage and profiles of the maximum storm-tide stages along the outer coast. Storm-tide stage frequency information is presented and changes in beach morphology and water quality of coastal streams resulting from the storm are described.

  18. Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

    2017-08-01

    Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Hurricane Sandy and Adaptation Pathways in New York: Lessons from a First-Responder City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William

    2014-01-01

    Two central issues of climate change have become increasingly evident: Climate change will significantly affect cities; and rapid global urbanization will increase dramatically the number of individuals, amount of critical infrastructure, and means of economic production that are exposed and vulnerable to dynamic climate risks. Simultaneously, cities in many settings have begun to emerge as early adopters of climate change action strategies including greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation. The objective of this paper is to examine and analyze how officials of one city - the City of New York - have integrated a flexible adaptation pathways approach into the municipality's climate action strategy. This approach has been connected with the City's ongoing response to Hurricane Sandy, which struck in the October 2012 and resulted in damages worth more than US$19 billion. A case study narrative methodology utilizing the Wise et al. conceptual framework (see this volume) is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the flexible adaptation pathways approach in New York City. The paper finds that Hurricane Sandy serves as a ''tipping point'' leading to transformative adaptation due to the explicit inclusion of increasing climate change risks in the rebuilding effort. The potential for transferability of the approach to cities varying in size and development stage is discussed, with elements useful across cities including the overall concept of flexible adaptation pathways, the inclusion of the full metropolitan region in the planning process, and the co-generation of climate-risk information by stakeholders and scientists.

  20. Dynamics of combined forest damage risks for 21st century (SRES A1B, B1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panferov, Oleg; Merklein, Johannes; Sogachev, Andrey; Junghans, Udo; Ahrends, Bernd

    2010-05-01

    of forest ecosystems, wind loading on trees and biotic damage for several tree species and typical soil types. The damage risks a certain forest stand at a given soil results from daily combinations of air and soil temperatures, soil water characteristics, static and gust wind loads on trees with dynamic LAI and of soil texture. Some damaged stands show higher vulnerability and thus - positive feedbacks to climate forcing (Vygodskaya et al., 2007). Therefore, changes of microclimate in remaining stands after changes in forest structure are taken into account. Model output is aggregated to 30-years periods and compared to "present conditions" of 1981-2010. The results show considerable increment of both biotic and abiotic risks towards 2100 relatively to "present" caused by weak changes in precipitation and wind patterns and strong increase of mean air temperature and soil temperatures. It is shown, e.g. that the wind- damage-induced changes of structure and microclimate provide a positive feedback i.e. - increase the probability of the next damage event. The study was financed by BMBF within the frames of joint project "Decision Support System - Forest and Climate Change" (DSS-WuK) and by Grant of Ministry for Science and Culture of Lower Saxony "KLIFF". We gratefully acknowledge this support.

  1. Longitudinal Impact of Hurricane Sandy Exposure on Mental Health Symptoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca M. Schwartz

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy hit the eastern coast of the United States in October 2012, causing billions of dollars in damage and acute physical and mental health problems. The long-term mental health consequences of the storm and their predictors have not been studied. New York City and Long Island residents completed questionnaires regarding their initial Hurricane Sandy exposure and mental health symptoms at baseline and 1 year later (N = 130. There were statistically significant decreases in anxiety scores (mean difference = −0.33, p < 0.01 and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD scores (mean difference = −1.98, p = 0.001 between baseline and follow-up. Experiencing a combination of personal and property damage was positively associated with long-term PTSD symptoms (ORadj 1.2, 95% CI [1.1–1.4] but not with anxiety or depression. Having anxiety, depression, or PTSD at baseline was a significant predictor of persistent anxiety (ORadj 2.8 95% CI [1.1–6.8], depression (ORadj 7.4 95% CI [2.3–24.1 and PTSD (ORadj 4.1 95% CI [1.1–14.6] at follow-up. Exposure to Hurricane Sandy has an impact on PTSD symptoms that persists over time. Given the likelihood of more frequent and intense hurricanes due to climate change, future hurricane recovery efforts must consider the long-term effects of hurricane exposure on mental health, especially on PTSD, when providing appropriate assistance and treatment.

  2. Near-real-time Forensic Disaster Analysis: experiences from hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, Michael; Mühr, Bernhard; Schröter, Kai; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Daniell, James; Khazai, Bijan; Wenzel, Friedemann; Vannieuwenhuyse, Marjorie; Comes, Tina; Münzberg, Thomas; Elmer, Florian; Fohringer, Joachim; Lucas, Christian; Trieselmann, Werner; Zschau, Jochen

    2013-04-01

    Hurricane Sandy was the last tropical cyclone of the 2012 Northern Atlantic Hurricane season that made landfall. It moved on an unusual track from the Caribbean to the East Coast of the United States from 24 to 30 October as a Category 1 and 2 Hurricane according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Along its path, the severe storm event caused widespread damage including almost 200 fatalities. In the early hours of 30 October, Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. Sandy was an extraordinary event due to its multihazard nature and several cascading effects in the aftermath. From the hydro-meteorological perspective, most unusual was the very large spatial extent of up to 1,700 km. High wind speeds were associated with record breaking storm surges at the U.S. Mid- Atlantic and New England Coast during high (astronomical) tide, leading to widespread flooding. Though Sandy was not the most severe storm event in terms of wind speed and precipitation, the impact in the U.S. was enormous with total damage estimates of up to 90 billion US (own estimate from Dec. 2012). Although much better data emerge weeks after such an event, the Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) Task Force of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) made an effort to obtain a comprehensive and holistic overview of the causes, hazardous effects and consequences associated with Sandy immediately after landfall at the U.S. coast on 30 October 2012. This was done in an interdisciplinary way by collecting and compiling scattered and distributed information from available databases and sources via the Internet, by applying own methodologies and models for near-real time analyses developed in recent years, and by expert knowledge. This contribution gives an overview about the CEDIM-FDA analyses' results. It describes the situation that led to the extraordinary event, highlights the interaction of the tropical cyclone with other hydro-meteorological events, and examines the

  3. A Risk-Based Approach to Shelter Resilience following Flood and Typhoon Damage in Rural Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria Stephenson

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Philippines is exposed to numerous typhoons every year, each of which poses a potential threat to livelihoods, shelter, and in some cases life. Flooding caused by such events leads to extensive damage to land and buildings, and the impact on rural communities can be severe. The global community is calling for action to address and achieve disaster risk reduction for communities and people exposed to such events. Achieving this requires an understanding of the nature of the risks that flooding and typhoons pose to these communities and their homes. This paper presents the findings from a field based case study assessment of three rural settlements in the Philippines, where typhoons and associated flooding in recent years has caused significant damage to houses and livelihoods, leading to the reconstruction of homes that more often than not reproduce similar structural vulnerabilities as were there before these hazards occurred. This work presents a methodology for risk assessment of such structures profiling the flood and wind hazards and measuring physical vulnerability and the experience of communities affected. The aim of the work is to demonstrate a method for identifying risks in these communities, and seeks to address the challenge faced by practitioners of assisting communities in rebuilding their homes in more resilient ways. The work set out here contributes to the discussion about how best to enable practitioners and communities to achieve the sought for risk reduction and especially highlights the role that geoscience and engineering can have in achieving this ambition.

  4. Disaster preparedness of dialysis patients for Hurricanes Gustav and Ike 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinpeter, Myra A

    2009-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita resulted in massive devastation of the Gulf Coast at Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas during 2005. Because of those disasters, dialysis providers, nephrologists, and dialysis patients used disaster planning activities to work to mitigate the morbidity and mortality associated with the 2005 hurricane season for future events affecting dialysis patients. As Hurricane Gustav approached, anniversary events for Hurricane Katrina were postponed because of evacuation orders for nearly the entire Louisiana Gulf Coast. As part of the hurricane preparation, dialysis units reviewed the disaster plans of patients, and patients made preparation for evacuation. Upon evacuation, many patients returned to the dialysis units that had provided services during their exile from Hurricane Katrina; other patients went to other locations as part of their evacuation plan. Patients uniformly reported positive experiences with dialysis providers in their temporary evacuation communities, provided that those communities did not experience the effects of Hurricane Gustav. With the exception of evacuees to Baton Rouge, patients continued to receive their treatments uninterrupted. Because of extensive damage in the Baton Rouge area, resulting in widespread power losses and delayed restoration of power to hospitals and other health care facilities, some patients missed one treatment. However, as a result of compliance with disaster fluid and dietary recommendations, no adverse outcomes occurred. In most instances, patients were able to return to their home dialysis unit or a nearby unit to continue dialysis treatments within 4 - 5 days of Hurricane Gustav. Hurricane Ike struck the Texas Gulf Coast near Galveston, resulting in devastation of that area similar to the devastation seen in New Orleans after Katrina. The storm surge along the Louisiana Gulf Coast resulted in flooding that temporarily closed coastal dialysis units. Patients were prepared and experienced

  5. What is DNA damage? Risk of double-strand break and its individual variation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanaoka, Fumio

    2011-01-01

    The author discusses about the title subject in an aspect of possible spreading of Fukushima radioactive substances mainly in eastern north area of Japan where carcinogenic incidence may be increased as the ionizing radiation injures the gene (DNA). At first, explained is that cancer is a disease of genes with infinitive proliferation of cells, there are systems to prevent it by repairing the damaged DNA and by other mechanisms like exclusion of cells damaged too much or killing cancer cells with immunity, and individual difference of the repairing capability exists. DNA is always damaged even under ordinary living conditions by sunlight UV ray, cosmic radiation and chemicals externally and by active oxygen species and thermal water movement internally. Concomitantly, DNA damaged by many mechanisms like deletion, dimmer formation, chemical modification of bases, single and double strand breaks is always repaired by concerned enzymes. Double-strand damage by high-energy radiation like gamma ray is quite risky because its repair sometimes accompanies error as concerned enzymes are from more multiple genes. There are many syndromes derived from gene deficit of those repairing enzymes. The diseases concerned with repair of the double-strand damage teach that fetus and infant are more sensitive to radiation than adult as their young body cells are more actively synthesizing DNA, during which, if DNA is injured by radiation, risk of repairing error is higher as the double strand break more frequently occurs. It cannot be simply said that a certain radiation dose limit is generally permissible. There is an individual difference of radiation sensitivity and a possible method to find out an individual weak to radiation is the lymphocyte screening in vitro using anticancer bleomycin which breaks the double strand. (T.T.)

  6. Tornado risk analysis at Savannah River Plant using windspeed damage thresholds and single building strike frequencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, D.H.; McDonald, J.R.; Twisdale, L.A.

    1985-01-01

    Tornado risk analysis at the Savannah River Plant has taken a two pronged approach: (1) developing a catalogue of damage thresholds as a function of windspeed for processing buildings and other representative site structures; (2) developing a method of estimating, for each building, the probability of a tornado exceeding each damage threshold. Wind resistance of building construction at SRP varies widely depending on the function of the structure. It was recognized that all tornadoes do not necessarily seriously damage buildings, but the damage thresholds were unknown. In order to evaluate the safety of existing structures and properly design new structures, an analysis of tornado resistance was conducted by J.R. McDonald on each process building at SRP and other buildings by type. Damage estimates were catalogued for each Fujita class windspeed interval and windspeeds were catalogued as a function of increased levels of damage. Tornado single point and structure specific strike probabilities for the SRP site were determined by L.A. Twisdale using the TORRISK computer code. To calculate the structure specific strike probability, a correction factor is determined from a set of curves using building area and aspect ratio (length/width relative to north) as parameters. The structure specific probability is then the product of the correction factor and the point probability. The correction factor increases as a function of building size and windspeed. For large buildings (10 5 ft 2 ) and very intense storms (250 mph), the correction factor is equal to or greater than 4. The cumulative probability of a tornado striking any building type (process, personnel, etc.) was also calculated

  7. Studying and Improving Human Response to Natural Hazards: Lessons from the Virtual Hurricane Lab

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, R.; Broad, K.; Orlove, B. S.

    2010-12-01

    One of the most critical challenges facing communities in areas prone to natural hazards is how to best encourage residents to invest in individual and collective actions that would reduce the damaging impact of low-probability, high-consequence, environmental events. Unfortunately, what makes this goal difficult to achieve is that the relative rarity natural hazards implies that many who face the risk of natural hazards have no previous experience to draw on when making preparation decisions, or have prior experience that provides misleading guidance on how best to prepare. For example, individuals who have experienced strings of minor earthquakes or near-misses from tropical cyclones may become overly complacent about the risks that extreme events actually pose. In this presentation we report the preliminary findings of a program of work that explores the use of realistic multi-media hazard simulations designed for two purposes: 1) to serve as a basic research tool for studying of how individuals make decisions to prepare for rare natural hazards in laboratory settings; and 2) to serve as an educational tool for giving people in hazard-prone areas virtual experience in hazard preparation. We demonstrate a prototype simulation in which participants experience the approach of a virtual hurricane, where they have the opportunity to invest in different kinds of action to protect their home from damage. As the hurricane approaches participants have access to an “information dashboard” in which they can gather information about the storm threat from a variety of natural sources, including mock television weather broadcasts, web sites, and conversations with neighbors. In response to this information they then have the opportunity to invest in different levels of protective actions. Some versions of the simulation are designed as games, where participants are rewarded based on their ability to make the optimal trade-off between under and over-preparing for the

  8. A Look Inside Hurricane Alma

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific started off with a whimper late last month as Alma, a Category 2 hurricane, slowly made its way up the coast of Baja California, packing sustained winds of 110 miles per hour and gusts of 135 miles per hour. The above image of the hurricane was acquired on May 29, 2002, and displays the rainfall rates occurring within the storm. Click the image above to see an animated data visualization (3.8 MB) of the interior of Hurricane Alma. The images of the clouds seen at the beginning of the movie were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's (NOAA's) Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite (GOES) network. As the movie continues, the clouds are peeled away to reveal an image of rainfall levels in the hurricane. The rainfall data were obtained by the Precipitation Radar aboard NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The Precipitation Radar bounces radio waves off of clouds to retrieve a reading of the number of large, rain-sized droplets within the clouds. Using these data, scientists can tell how much precipitation is occurring within and beneath a hurricane. In the movie, yellow denotes areas where 0.5 inches of rain is falling per hour, green denotes 1 inch per hour, and red denotes over 2 inches per hour. (Please note that high resolution still images of Hurricane Alma are available in the NASA Visible Earth in TIFF format.) Image and animation courtesy Lori Perkins, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

  9. HURRICANE AND SEVERE STORM SENTINEL (HS3) HURRICANE IMAGING RADIOMETER (HIRAD) V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) was collected by the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), which was a multi-band...

  10. Development of the Damage Potential resulting from Avalanche Risks, Case Study Galtür (Tyrol, Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiler, M.

    2003-04-01

    Reports on catastrophes with high damage caused by natural hazards seem to have increased in number recently. A new trend in dealing with these natural processes leads to the integration of risk into natural hazards evaluations and approaches of integral risk management. The risk resulting from natural hazards can be derived from the combination of parameters of physical processes (intensity and recurrence probability) and damage potential (probability of presence and expected damage value). Natural hazard research focuses mainly on the examination, modelling and estimation of individual geomorphological processes as well as on future developments caused by climate change. Even though damage potential has been taken into account more frequently, quantifying statements are still missing. Due to the changes of the socio-economic structures in mountain regions (urban sprawl, population growth, increased mobility and tourism) these studies are mandatory. This study presents a conceptual method that records the damage potential (probability of physical presence, evaluation of buildings) and shows the development of the damage potential resulting from avalanches since 1950. The study area is the community of Galtür, Austria. 36 percent of the existing buildings are found in officially declared avalanche hazard zones. The majority of these buildings are either agricultural or accommodation facilities. Additionally, the effects of physical planning and/or technical measures on the spatial development of the potential damage are illustrated. The results serve to improve risk determination and point out an unnoticed increase of damage potential and risk in apparently safe settlement areas.

  11. Improving Post-Hurricane Katrina Forest Management with MODIS Time Series Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Mark David; Spruce, Joseph; Evans, David; Anderson, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Hurricane damage to forests can be severe, causing millions of dollars of timber damage and loss. To help mitigate loss, state agencies require information on location, intensity, and extent of damaged forests. NASA's MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series data products offers a potential means for state agencies to monitor hurricane-induced forest damage and recovery across a broad region. In response, a project was conducted to produce and assess 250 meter forest disturbance and recovery maps for areas in southern Mississippi impacted by Hurricane Katrina. The products and capabilities from the project were compiled to aid work of the Mississippi Institute for Forest Inventory (MIFI). A series of NDVI change detection products were computed to assess hurricane induced damage and recovery. Hurricane-induced forest damage maps were derived by computing percent change between MODIS MOD13 16-day composited NDVI pre-hurricane "baseline" products (2003 and 2004) and post-hurricane NDVI products (2005). Recovery products were then computed in which post storm 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 NDVI data was each singularly compared to the historical baseline NDVI. All percent NDVI change considered the 16-day composite period of August 29 to September 13 for each year in the study. This provided percent change in the maximum NDVI for the 2 week period just after the hurricane event and for each subsequent anniversary through 2009, resulting in forest disturbance products for 2005 and recovery products for the following 4 years. These disturbance and recovery products were produced for the Mississippi Institute for Forest Inventory's (MIFI) Southeast Inventory District and also for the entire hurricane impact zone. MIFI forest inventory products were used as ground truth information for the project. Each NDVI percent change product was classified into 6 categories of forest disturbance intensity. Stand age

  12. Risk-informed optimal routing of ships considering different damage scenarios and operational conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decò, Alberto; Frangopol, Dan M.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is the development of a risk-informed decision tool for the optimal mission-oriented routing of ships. The strength of the hull is investigated by modeling the midship section with finite elements and by analyzing different damage levels depending on the propagation of plastification throughout the section. Vertical and horizontal flexural interaction is investigated. Uncertainties associated with geometry and material properties are accounted for by means of the implementation of the response surface method. Load effects are evaluated using strip theory. Reliability analysis is performed for several ship operational conditions and considering four different limit states. Then, risk is assessed by including the direct losses associated with five investigated damage states. The effects of corrosion on aged ships are included in the proposed approach. Polar representation of load effects, reliability, and direct risk are presented for a large spectrum of operational conditions. Finally, the optimal routing of ships is obtained by minimizing both the estimated time of arrival and the expected direct risk, which are clearly conflicting objectives. The optimization process provides feasible solutions belonging to the Pareto front. The proposed approach is applied to a Joint High Speed Sealift

  13. Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model

  14. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies to reduce non-structural damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa Oliveira, Carlos; Lopes, Mário; Mota de Sá, Francisco; Amaral Ferreia, Mónica; Candeias, Paulo; Campos Costa, Alfredo; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Meroni, Fabrizio; Azzaro, Raffaele; D'Amico, Salvatore; Langer, Horst; Musacchio, Gemma; Sousa Silva, Delta; Falsaperla, Susanna; Scarfì, Luciano; Tusa, Giuseppina; Tuvé, Tiziana

    2016-04-01

    The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. Non-structural components of a building include all those components that are not part of the structural system, more specifically the architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems, as well as furniture, fixtures, equipment, and contents. Windows, partitions, granite veneer, piping, ceilings, air conditioning ducts and equipment, elevators, computer and hospital equipment, file cabinets, and retail merchandise are all examples of non-structural components that are vulnerable to earthquake damage. We will use the experience gained during past earthquakes, which struck in particular Iceland, Italy and Portugal (Azores). Securing the non-structural elements improves the safety during an earthquake and saves lives. This paper aims at identifying non-structural seismic protection measures in the pilot areas and to develop a portfolio of good practices for the most common and serious non-structural vulnerabilities. This systematic identification and the portfolio will be achieved through a "cross-knowledge" strategy based on previous researches, evidence of non-structural damage in past earthquakes. Shake table tests of a group of non-structural elements will be performed. These tests will be filmed and, jointly with portfolio, will serve as didactic supporting tools to be used in workshops with building construction stakeholders and in risk communication activities. A Practical Guide for non-structural risk reduction will be specifically prepared for citizens on the basis of the outputs of the project, taking into account the local culture and needs of each participating country.

  15. Estimating young Australian adults' risk of hearing damage from selected leisure activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Elizabeth; Williams, Warwick; Gilliver, Megan

    2013-01-01

    Several previous studies have attempted to estimate the risk of noise-induced hearing loss from loud leisure noise. Some of these studies may have overestimated the risk because they used noise estimates taken from the higher end of reported levels. The aim of the present study was to provide a realistic estimate of the number of young Australian adults who may be at risk of hearing damage and eventual hearing loss from leisure-noise exposure. Average noise levels at five high-noise leisure activities, (1) nightclubs; (2) pubs, bars, and registered clubs; (3) fitness classes; (4) live sporting events; (5) concerts and live music venues, were calculated using 108 measurements taken from a large database of leisure noise measurements. In addition, an online survey was administered to a convenience sample of 1000 young adults aged 18 to 35 years, who reported the time spent at these leisure activities and the frequency with which they undertook the activities. They also answered questions about tinnitus and their perceived risk of hearing damage. Although the survey data cannot be considered representative of the population of young Australian adults, it was weighted to this population in respect of age, gender, education, and location. The survey data and the average noise levels were used to estimate each individual's annual noise exposure, and in turn, estimate those at risk of hearing damage from leisure-noise exposure. For the majority of participants (n = 868), the accumulated leisure noise level was within the acceptable workplace limit. However, 132 participants or 14.1% (population weighted) were exposed to an annual noise dose greater than the acceptable workplace noise limit. By far, the main source of high-risk leisure noise was from nightclubs. Those with more leisure-noise exposure experienced more tinnitus and perceived themselves to be more at risk than those with lower noise exposures. It is recommended that nightclub operators reduce noise levels

  16. Efficient prevention and compensation of catastrophic risks. The example of damage by nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanden Borre, T.

    2001-01-01

    This book deals with the liability for damage due to catastrophic risks. The nuclear liability law serves as an example of such a catastrophic risk. The question that we tried to answer is what an efficient compensation scheme for catastrophic risks should look like. This question is dealt with both from a law and an economic point of view and from a comparative point of view. The main element in comparing the laws in different countries is the comparison between Belgian and Dutch civil (nuclear) liability law. But also American nuclear liability law is part of the analysis (the Price-Anderson Act). The book consists of four parts: (nuclear) civil liability law, legal and economic approach, analysis of other compensation systems and conclusions. The big themes in this book are therefore civil (nuclear) liability law, insurance law and environmental liability law [nl

  17. Risk prediction is improved by adding markers of subclinical organ damage to SCORE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W

    2010-01-01

    cardiovascular, anti-diabetic, or lipid-lowering treatment, aged 41, 51, 61, or 71 years, we measured traditional cardiovascular risk factors, left ventricular (LV) mass index, atherosclerotic plaques in the carotid arteries, carotid/femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR......) and followed them for a median of 12.8 years. Eighty-one subjects died because of cardiovascular causes. Risk of cardiovascular death was independently of SCORE associated with LV hypertrophy [hazard ratio (HR) 2.2 (95% CI 1.2-4.0)], plaques [HR 2.5 (1.6-4.0)], UACR > or = 90th percentile [HR 3.3 (1.......07). CONCLUSION: Subclinical organ damage predicted cardiovascular death independently of SCORE and the combination may improve risk prediction....

  18. The Effect of Hurricanes on Annual Precipitation in Maryland and the Connection to Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jackie; Liu, Zhong

    2015-01-01

    Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change

  19. Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) Microwave (MW)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) from Microwave (MW) observations of tropical cyclones worldwide data consist of raw satellite observations. The data derive from the...

  20. Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall

    OpenAIRE

    Emanuel, Kerry

    2017-01-01

    Significance Natural disasters such as the recent Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria highlight the need for quantitative estimates of the risk of such disasters. Statistically based risk assessment suffers from short records of often poor quality, and in the case of meteorological hazards, from the fact that the underlying climate is changing. This study shows how a recently developed physics-based risk assessment method can be applied to assessing the probabilities of extreme hurricane rainf...

  1. Flood hazards and masonry constructions: a probabilistic framework for damage, risk and resilience at urban scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mebarki

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the failure risk of masonry constructions under the effect of floods. It is developed within a probabilistic framework, with loads and resistances considered as random variables. Two complementary approaches have been investigated for this purpose:

    – a global approach based on combined effects of several governing parameters with individual weighted contribution (material quality and geometry, presence and distance between columns, beams, openings, resistance of the soil and its slope. . .,
    – and a reliability method using the failure mechanism of masonry walls standing out-plane pressure.

    The evolution of the probability of failure of masonry constructions according to the flood water level is analysed.

    The analysis of different failure probability scenarios for masonry walls is conducted to calibrate the influence of each "vulnerability governing parameter" in the global approach that is widely used in risk assessment at the urban or regional scale.

    The global methodology is implemented in a GIS that provides the spatial distribution of damage risk for different flood scenarios. A real case is considered for the simulations, i.e. Cheffes sur Sarthe (France, for which the observed river discharge, the hydraulic load according to the Digital Terrain Model, and the structural resistance are considered as random variables. The damage probability values provided by both approaches are compared. Discussions are also developed about reduction and mitigation of the flood disaster at various scales (set of structures, city, region as well as resilience.

  2. Disentangling factors that control the vulnerability of forests to catastrophic wind damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dracup, E.; Taylor, A.; MacLean, D.; Boulanger, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Wind is an important driver of forest dynamics along North America's north-eastern coastal forests, but also damages many commercially managed forests which society relies as an important source of wood fiber. Although the influence of wind on north-eastern forests is well recognized, knowledge of factors predisposing trees to wind damage is less known, especially in the context of large, powerful wind storm events. This is of particular concern as climate change is expected to alter the frequency and severity of strong wind storms affecting this region. On 29 September 2003, Hurricane Juan made landfall over Nova Scotia, Canada as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 158 km/h, and gusts of up to 185 km/h. Hurricane Juan variously damaged a swath of over 600,000 ha of forest. The damaged forest area was surveyed using aerial photography and LandSAT imagery and categorized according to level of wind damage sustained (none, low, moderate, severe) at a resolution of 15 x 15 m square cells. We used Random Forest to analyze and compare level of wind damage in each cell with a myriad of abiotic (exposure, depth to water table, soil composition, etc.) and biotic (tree species composition, canopy closure, canopy height, etc.) factors known or expected to predispose trees to windthrow. From our analysis, we identified topographic exposure, precipitation, and maximum gust speed as the top predictors of windthrow during Hurricane Juan. To our surprise, forest stand factors, such as tree species composition and height, had minimal effects on level of windthrow. These results can be used to construct predictive risk maps which can help society to assess the vulnerability of forests to future wind storm events.

  3. Reducing the Risk of Damage to Power Transformers of 110 kV and Above Accompanying Internal Short Circuits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    L’vova, M. M. [JSC “R& D Center at Federal Grid Company of the Unified Power System” (Russian Federation); L’vov, S. Yu. [Presselektro LLC (Russian Federation); Komarov, V. B. [IPCE RAS (Russian Federation); Lyut’ko, E. O. [JSC “R& D Center at Federal Grid Company of the Unified Power System” (Russian Federation); Vdoviko, V. P. [EMA Ltd. (Russian Federation); Demchenko, V. V. [JSC “Boguchanskaya HPP” (Russian Federation); Belyaev, S. G. [PKF Konif Ltd. (Russian Federation); Savel’ev, V. A. [Ivanovo State Power University (Russian Federation); L’vov, M. Yu., E-mail: timashova@nte-power.ru; L’vov, Yu. N. [JSC “R& D Center at Federal Grid Company of the Unified Power System” (Russian Federation)

    2015-03-15

    Methods of increasing the operating reliability of power transformers, autotransformers and shunting reactors in order to reduce the risk of damage, which accompany internal short circuits and equipment fires and explosions, are considered.

  4. Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970–2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, John R.; Issar, Sukriti; Xu, Zengwang

    2016-01-01

    Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970–2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal—a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm’s way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices. PMID:27531504

  5. Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Rossi, Lauro; Trasforini, Eva; Rudari, Roberto; Ferraris, Luca; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Castelli, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    Flood risk mitigation usually requires a significant investment of public resources and cost-effectiveness should be ensured. The assessment of the benefits of hydraulic works requires the quantification of (i) flood risk in absence of measures, (ii) risk in presence of mitigation works, (iii) investments to achieve acceptable residual risk. In this work a building-scale is adopted to estimate direct tangible flood losses to several building classes (e.g. residential, industrial, commercial, etc.) and respective contents, exploiting various sources of public open data in a GIS environment. The impact simulations for assigned flood hazard scenarios are computed through the RASOR platform which allows for an extensive characterization of the properties and their vulnerability through libraries of stage-damage curves. Recovery and replacement costs are estimated based on insurance data, market values and socio-economic proxies. The methodology is applied to the case study of Florence (Italy) where a system of retention basins upstream of the city is under construction to reduce flood risk. Current flood risk in the study area (70 km 2 ) is about 170 Mio euros per year without accounting for people, infrastructures, cultural heritage and vehicles at risk. The monetary investment in the retention basins is paid off in about 5 years. However, the results show that although hydraulic works are cost-effective, a significant residual risk has to be managed and the achievement of the desired level of acceptable risk would require about 1 billion euros of investments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Frequent Disasters in Mexico: hurricanes Pauline and Manuel in Acapulco, Guerrero

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Manuel Rodríguez Esteves

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Hurricanes and other tropical storms are natural phenomena that attract the interest of people all over the world, especially when they affect coastal communities. Each year, especially during the hurricane season, it is common to read or see in the different media damage caused by tropical storms in several countries, especially in Latin America and Asia. In Mexico total economic losses associated with natural phenomena has been increasing. During the year 2000 were allocated 230 million US dollars for the reconstruction of the infrastructure affected by hydrometeorological phenomena, while in 2013 damage amounted to $ 4,476 million, peaking during 2010 were recorded when 7,208 million dollars in losses. On the other hand, the total of damage caused by natural phenomena, 92 % were associated with hydrometeorological phenomena, which include hurricanes and other phenomena (SEGOB, 2014. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impacts caused by disasters associated with the influence of hurricanes from a comparative perspective between two phenomena in particular, hurricane Pauline in 1997 and Manuel storm in 2013 events hydrometeorological which affected the Mexican state of Guerrero, but especially to the port of Acapulco. one of the main conclusions of this study refers to that no matter only the intensity of the natural phenomenon to generate damage on society, but the total of damages also refers to the contexts of vulnerability generated by a society with the course of the years.

  7. Cerebral Damage May Be the Primary Risk Factor for Visual Impairment in Preschool Children Born Extremely Premature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slidsborg, Carina; Bangsgaard, Regitze; Fledelius, Hans Callø

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To investigate the importance of cerebral damage and retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) for visual impairment in preschool children born extremely premature and to determine the primary risk factor of the two. METHODS A clinical follow-up study of a Danish national cohort of children born......, 3.0-25.2; P visual impairment in children born extremely premature, and cerebral damage may be the primary risk...... participants were identified through the National Birth Register and invited to participate in a clinical examination. The children were evaluated with regard to visual acuity, foveal sequelae, and maximum ROP stage and the presence of global developmental deficits (an indicator for cerebral damage...

  8. Deaths associated with Hurricane Sandy - October-November 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-24

    On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the northeastern U.S. coastline. Sandy's tropical storm winds stretched over 900 miles (1,440 km), causing storm surges and destruction over a larger area than that affected by hurricanes with more intensity but narrower paths. Based on storm surge predictions, mandatory evacuations were ordered on October 28, including for New York City's Evacuation Zone A, the coastal zone at risk for flooding from any hurricane. By October 31, the region had 6-12 inches (15-30 cm) of precipitation, 7-8 million customers without power, approximately 20,000 persons in shelters, and news reports of numerous fatalities (Robert Neurath, CDC, personal communication, 2013). To characterize deaths related to Sandy, CDC analyzed data on 117 hurricane-related deaths captured by American Red Cross (Red Cross) mortality tracking during October 28-November 30, 2012. This report describes the results of that analysis, which found drowning was the most common cause of death related to Sandy, and 45% of drowning deaths occurred in flooded homes in Evacuation Zone A. Drowning is a leading cause of hurricane death but is preventable with advance warning systems and evacuation plans. Emergency plans should ensure that persons receive and comprehend evacuation messages and have the necessary resources to comply with them.

  9. Home care during the aftermath of Hurricane Hugo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chubon, S J

    1992-06-01

    During the course of field observations for an ethnographic study of home care nurses' job stress, Hurricane Hugo struck the community, causing extensive damage. The nurses' office building was heavily damaged by wind and water, and their office was not habitable for almost a week. The author had observed the nurses' work practices over 10 weeks before the hurricane. In the aftermath of the storm, the nurses were simultaneously disaster victims and caregivers for other victims. They experienced grief, anger, and frustration about their losses, as well as conflict between their family- and work-related responsibilities. Their experiences and behaviors were consistent with those described in prior disaster research literature, lending further support to the earlier studies. A major asset for these nurses was their open, supportive work environment. They were able to accept and affirm one another's negative feelings and to provide support to each other as they dealt with their losses.

  10. Electricity and risk of public health center had measles vaccine damage in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anggita Bunga Anggraini

    2016-03-01

    related to PHC hadmeasles damage vaccines.Methods: The analysis used a part of the data of Research Health Facilities (Rifaskes in 2011. The Rifaskeswas conducted in all health centers in all (33 provinces in Indonesia. Furthermore, this analysis uses dataonly health center in the province who have measles immunization coverage the national prevalence rate(81.6% or more, and health centers that have measles prevalence rate above the national prevalence rate(1.18% or more. Statistical data analysis performed using logistic regression analysis to determine someof the risk factors related to the health center had has measles vaccine damaged.Results: A number of 7 provinces (Riau, Jakarta, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, CentralSulawesi, South Sulawesi, Gorontalo with 1259 PHC met the inclusion criteria. Health centers locatedin rural areas compared with urban areas had 3.4-fold risk of a PHC that had measles damage vaccines[adjusted odds ratio (ORa = 3.37; 95% confidence interval (CI = 1.34 - 8.26]. Furthermore, the healthcenter with the availability of the electricity for less than 24 hours compared with available 24 hours had2.1-fold risk of PHC that had measles damage vaccines (ORa = 2.10; 95% CI = 1.02 - 4.33.Conclusion: Public health center in rural areas, or did not have not have commercial electric power, ordid not have the availability of day-to-day electricity less than 24 hours had more risk of a PHC that hadmeasles damage vaccines. (Health Science Journal of Indonesia 2015;6:116-20Keywords: measles, public health center, vaccine

  11. Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tugnoli, Alessandro; Cozzani, Valerio; Di Padova, Annamaria; Barbaresi, Tiziana; Tallone, Fabrizio

    2012-01-01

    Passive fire protection by the application of fireproofing materials is a crucial safety barrier in the prevention of the escalation of fire scenarios. Fireproofing improves the capacity of process items and of support structures to maintain their structural integrity during a fire, preventing or at least delaying the collapse of structural elements. Maintenance and cost issues require, however, to apply such protection only where an actual risk of severe fire scenarios is present. Available methodologies for fireproofing application in on-shore installation do not consider the effect of jet-fires. In the present study, a risk-based methodology aimed at the protection from both pool fire and jet fire escalation was developed. The procedure addresses both the prevention of domino effect and the mitigation of asset damage due to the primary fire scenario. The method is mainly oriented to early design application, allowing the identification of fireproofing zones in the initial phases of lay-out definition.

  12. The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krupnick, A.J.; Markandya, A.; Nickell, E.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report

  13. The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krupnick, A J; Markandya, A; Nickell, E

    1994-07-01

    This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report.

  14. Assessing frost damages using dynamic models in walnut trees: exposure rather than vulnerability controls frost risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume, Charrier; Isabelle, Chuine; Marc, Bonhomme; Thierry, Améglio

    2018-05-01

    Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod, were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, J. regia × nigra 'Early' and 'Late'). The photothermal model predicted more accurate values for all genotypes (efficiency = 0.879; Root Mean Standard Error Predicted (RMSEP) = 2.55 °C) than the thermal model (efficiency = 0.801; RMSEP = 3.24 °C). Predicted frost damages were strongly correlated to minimum temperature of the freezing events (ρ = -0.983) rather than actual frost hardiness (ρ = -0.515), or ratio of phenological stage completion (ρ = 0.336). Higher frost risks are consequently predicted during winter, at high elevation, whereas spring is only risky at low elevation in early genotypes exhibiting faster dehardening rate. However, early frost damages, although of lower value, may negatively affect fruit production the subsequent year (R 2  = 0.381, P = 0.057). These results highlight the interacting pattern between frost exposure and vulnerability at different scales and the necessity of intra-organ studies to understand the time course of frost vulnerability in flower buds along the winter. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Risk in Nuclear Industry. Liability for Nuclear Damage. Status of the Problem in the Russian Federation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovalevich, Oleg M.; Gavrilov, Sergey D.; Voronov, Dmitry B.

    2001-01-01

    Russia is one of a few nuclear power states obtaining the whole number of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) components - from mining of uranium and on-site electricity production, from NPP spent nuclear fuel processing and extracted fissile materials and radionuclides, which are available in industry, in medicine and in other relevant areas, to radioactive waste processing and disposal. For this reason it is very important to solve the problem of nuclear fuel cycle safety as it is a single system task with an adequate approach for all cycle components. The problem is that NFC facilities are technologically various and refer to different industries (mining, machinery engineering, power engineering, chemistry, etc.). Besides, the above facilities need the development of various scientific bases. The most NFC facilities is directly connected with peaceful use of nuclear energy and with military nuclear industry, as the defense orders stimulated the development of NFC. The specific attention to safety problems at the beginning of nuclear complex foundation adversely affected the state attitude towards the risk in nuclear industry, it has left the traces at present. In our paper we touch upon the problems of risk and the liability for nuclear damage for the third persons. The problems of nuclear damage compensation for nuclear facilities personnel and for the owners (operating organizations) are beyond our subject

  16. Oxytetracycline induces DNA damage and epigenetic changes: a possible risk for human and animal health?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallo, Adriana; Landi, Rosaria; Rubino, Valentina; Di Cerbo, Alessandro; Giovazzino, Angela; Palatucci, Anna Teresa; Centenaro, Sara; Guidetti, Gianandrea; Canello, Sergio; Cortese, Laura; Ruggiero, Giuseppina; Alessandrini, Andrea; Terrazzano, Giuseppe

    2017-01-01

    Oxytetracycline (OTC), which is largely employed in zootechnical and veterinary practices to ensure wellness of farmed animals, is partially absorbed within the gastrointestinal tract depositing in several tissues. Therefore, the potential OTC toxicity is relevant when considering the putative risk derived by the entry and accumulation of such drug in human and pet food chain supply. Despite scientific literature highlights several OTC-dependent toxic effects on human and animal health, the molecular mechanisms of such toxicity are still poorly understood. Here, we evaluated DNA damages and epigenetic alterations by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, quantitative polymerase chain reaction, chromatin immuno-precipitation and Western blot analysis. We observed that human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) expressed DNA damage features (activation of ATM and p53, phosphorylation of H2AX and modifications of histone H3 methylation of lysine K4 in the chromatin) after the in vitro exposure to OTC. These changes are linked to a robust inflammatory response indicated by an increased expression of Interferon (IFN)- γ and type 1 superoxide dismutase (SOD1). Our data reveal an unexpected biological in vitro activity of OTC able to modify DNA and chromatin in cultured human PBMC. In this regard, OTC presence in foods of animal origin could represent a potential risk for both the human and animal health.

  17. Longleaf pine regeneration following Hurricane Ivan utilizing the RLGS plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    John C. Gilbert; John S. Kush

    2013-01-01

    On September 16, 2004, Hurricane Ivan hit the Alabama coast and severely impacted numerous plots in the U.S. Forest Service’s Regional Longleaf Growth Study (RLGS). The Escambia Experimental Forest (EEF) has 201 of the 325 RLGS plots. Nearly one-third of the EEF was impacted. Nine plots with pole-sized trees were entirely lost. Another 54 plots had some type of damage...

  18. Hurricane Data Analysis Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana; Leptoukh, Gregory

    2011-01-01

    In order to facilitate Earth science data access, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC) has developed a web prototype, the Hurricane Data Analysis Tool (HDAT; URL: http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/HDAT), to allow users to conduct online visualization and analysis of several remote sensing and model datasets for educational activities and studies of tropical cyclones and other weather phenomena. With a web browser and few mouse clicks, users can have a full access to terabytes of data and generate 2-D or time-series plots and animation without downloading any software and data. HDAT includes data from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA Quick Scatterometer(QuikSCAT) and NECP Reanalysis, and the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N - 60 S) IR Dataset. The GES DISC archives TRMM data. The daily global rainfall product derived from the 3-hourly multi-satellite precipitation product (3B42 V6) is available in HDAT. The TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) sea surface temperature from the Remote Sensing Systems is in HDAT as well. The NASA QuikSCAT ocean surface wind and the NCEP Reanalysis provide ocean surface and atmospheric conditions, respectively. The global merged IR product, also known as, the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N -60 S) IR Dataset, is one of TRMM ancillary datasets. They are globally-merged pixel-resolution IR brightness temperature data (equivalent blackbody temperatures), merged from all available geostationary satellites (GOES-8/10, METEOSAT-7/5 & GMS). The GES DISC has collected over 10 years of the data beginning from February of 2000. This high temporal resolution (every 30 minutes) dataset not only provides additional background information to TRMM and other satellite missions, but also allows observing a wide range of meteorological phenomena from space, such as, hurricanes, typhoons, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convection system, etc. Basic functions include selection of area of

  19. Development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation model for the New Orleans area : [technical summary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    When hurricanes threaten coastal cities, the most eff ective strategy to mitigate mortality is to evacuate the population : at risk. However, public offi cials face several transportation challenges when managing evacuations from a large city : like ...

  20. 77 FR 64564 - Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-22

    ...-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Proposed interim...-ISG-024, ``Implementation of Regulatory Guide 1.221 on Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles....221, ``Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power Plants.'' DATES: Submit...

  1. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Direct Economic Flood Damages: the FloodRisk Free and Open-Source Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Mancusi, L.; Cantisani, A.; Perrone, A.

    2017-12-01

    The considerable increase of flood damages in the the past decades has shifted in Europe the attention from protection against floods to managing flood risks. In this context, the expected damages assessment represents a crucial information within the overall flood risk management process. The present paper proposes an open source software, called FloodRisk, that is able to operatively support stakeholders in the decision making processes with a what-if approach by carrying out the rapid assessment of the flood consequences, in terms of direct economic damage and loss of human lives. The evaluation of the damage scenarios, trough the use of the GIS software proposed here, is essential for cost-benefit or multi-criteria analysis of risk mitigation alternatives. However, considering that quantitative assessment of flood damages scenarios is characterized by intrinsic uncertainty, a scheme has been developed to identify and quantify the role of the input parameters in the total uncertainty of flood loss model application in urban areas with mild terrain and complex topography. By the concept of parallel models, the contribution of different module and input parameters to the total uncertainty is quantified. The results of the present case study have exhibited a high epistemic uncertainty on the damage estimation module and, in particular, on the type and form of the utilized damage functions, which have been adapted and transferred from different geographic and socio-economic contexts because there aren't depth-damage functions that are specifically developed for Italy. Considering that uncertainty and sensitivity depend considerably on local characteristics, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimate is reduced by introducing additional information into the risk analysis. In the light of the obtained results, it is evident the need to produce and disseminate (open) data to develop micro-scale vulnerability curves. Moreover, the urgent need to push

  2. Mother and Child Reports of Hurricane Related Stressors: Data from a Sample of Families Exposed to Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Betty S.; Beaulieu, Brooke; Ogokeh, Constance E.; Self-Brown, Shannon; Kelley, Mary Lou

    2015-01-01

    Background: Families exposed to disasters such as Hurricane Katrina are at risk for numerous adverse outcomes. While previous literature suggests that the degree of disaster exposure corresponds with experiencing negative outcomes, it is unclear if parents and children report similar levels of disaster exposure. Objective: The purpose of this…

  3. Hurricane Hugo Poster (September 21, 1989)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Hugo poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-11 captures Hurricane Hugo slamming into South Carolina coast on September 21, 1989. Poster size is 36"x36".

  4. Hurricane Isabel Poster (September 18, 2003)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Isabel poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Isabel making landfall on the North Carolina Outer Banks on September 18, 2003. Poster...

  5. Hurricane Wilma Poster (October 24, 2005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Wilma poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-18 shows Hurricane Wilma exiting Florida off the east Florida coast on October 24, 2005. Poster size is 34"x30".

  6. Hurricane Sandy Poster (October 29, 2012)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Sandy poster. Multi-spectral image from Suomi-NPP shows Hurricane Sandy approaching the New Jersey Coast on October 29, 2012. Poster size is approximately...

  7. Hurricane Frances Poster (September 5, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Frances poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Frances over central Florida on September 5, 2004. Poster dimension is approximately...

  8. Hurricane Ivan Poster (September 15, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Ivan poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Ivan in the Gulf of Mexico on September 15, 2004. Poster size is 34"x30".

  9. Hurricane Charley Poster (August 13, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Charley poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows a small but powerful hurricane heading toward southern Florida on August 13, 2004. Poster dimension...

  10. Hurricane Jeanne Poster (September 25, 2004)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Jeanne poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-16 shows Hurricane Jeanne near Grand Bahama Island on September 25, 2004. Poster size is 34"x30".

  11. NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

    Science.gov (United States)

    (discussion) El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion National Hurricane Preparedness Week in both English and Spanish, featuring NOAA hurricane experts and the FEMA administrator at

  12. Elevated endogenous erythropoietin concentrations are associated with increased risk of brain damage in extremely preterm neonates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven J Korzeniewski

    Full Text Available We sought to determine, in very preterm infants, whether elevated perinatal erythropoietin (EPO concentrations are associated with increased risks of indicators of brain damage, and whether this risk differs by the co-occurrence or absence of intermittent or sustained systemic inflammation (ISSI.Protein concentrations were measured in blood collected from 786 infants born before the 28th week of gestation. EPO was measured on postnatal day 14, and 25 inflammation-related proteins were measured weekly during the first 2 postnatal weeks. We defined ISSI as a concentration in the top quartile of each of 25 inflammation-related proteins on two separate days a week apart. Hypererythropoietinemia (hyperEPO was defined as the highest quartile for gestational age on postnatal day 14. Using logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression models, we compared risks of brain damage among neonates with hyperEPO only, ISSI only, and hyperEPO+ISSI, to those who had neither hyperEPO nor ISSI, adjusting for gestational age.Newborns with hyperEPO, regardless of ISSI, were more than twice as likely as those without to have very low (< 55 Mental (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.5-3.5 and/or Psychomotor (OR 2.4; 95% CI 1.6-3.7 Development Indices (MDI, PDI, and microcephaly at age two years (OR 2.4; 95%CI 1.5-3.8. Newborns with both hyperEPO and ISSI had significantly increased risks of ventriculomegaly, hemiparetic cerebral palsy, microcephaly, and MDI and PDI < 55 (ORs ranged from 2.2-6.3, but not hypoechoic lesions or other forms of cerebral palsy, relative to newborns with neither hyperEPO nor ISSI.hyperEPO, regardless of ISSI, is associated with elevated risks of very low MDI and PDI, and microcephaly, but not with any form of cerebral palsy. Children with both hyperEPO and ISSI are at higher risk than others of very low MDI and PDI, ventriculomegaly, hemiparetic cerebral palsy, and microcephaly.

  13. Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng; Wang, Xue

    2017-01-01

    As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor. (paper)

  14. Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes

    OpenAIRE

    Khare, Shree; Jewson, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling hurricanes, and for intense hurricanes only. We find that the averaging lengths needed for optimal predictions of numbers of intense hurricanes are longer than those needed for optimal predictions of numbers of hurricanes of all strengths.

  15. 7 CFR 701.50 - 2005 hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false 2005 hurricanes. 701.50 Section 701.50 Agriculture... ADMINISTERED UNDER THIS PART § 701.50 2005 hurricanes. In addition benefits elsewhere allowed by this part, claims related to calendar year 2005 hurricane losses may be allowed to the extent provided for in §§ 701...

  16. Mapping the Extent and Magnitude of Severe Flooding Induced by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria with Sentinel-1 SAR and InSAR Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, B.; Koirala, R.; Oliver-Cabrera, T.; Wdowinski, S.; Osmanoglu, B.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes can cause winds, rainfall and storm surge, all of which could result in flooding. Between August and September 2017, Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria made landfall over Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico causing destruction and damages. Flood mapping is important for water management and to estimate risks and property damage. Though water gauges are able to monitor water levels, they are normally distributed sparsely. To map flooding products of these extreme events, we use Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) observations acquired by the European satellite constellation Sentinel-1. We obtained two acquisitions from before each flooding event, a single acquisition during the hurricane, and two after each event, a total of five acquisitions. We use both amplitude and phase observations to map extent and magnitude of flooding respectively. To map flooding extents, we use amplitude images from before, after and if possible during the hurricane pass. A calibration is used to convert the image raw data to backscatter coefficient, termed sigma nought. We generate a composite of the two image layers using red and green bands to show the change of sigma nought between acquisitions, which directly reflects the extent of flooding. Because inundation can result with either an increase or decrease of sigma nought values depending on the surface scattering characteristics, we map flooded areas in location where sigma nought changes were above a detection threshold. To study magnitude of flooding we study Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) phase changes. Changes in the water level can be detected by the radar when the signal is reflected away from water surface and bounces again by another object (e.g. trees and/or buildings) known as double bounce phase. To generate meaningful interferograms, we compare phase information with the nearest water gauge records to verify our results. Preliminary results show that the three hurricanes caused flooding condition over

  17. Estimating hurricane hazards using a GIS system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Taramelli

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to the Multi-Hazard model method, with reference to hurricanes. This approach has three components: data integration, hazard assessment and score calculation to estimate elements at risk such as affected area and affected population. First, spatial data integration issues within a GIS environment, such as geographical scales and data models, are addressed. Particularly, the integration of physical parameters and population data is achieved linking remotely sensed data with a high resolution population distribution in GIS. In order to assess the number of affected people, involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is basic. Second, specific multi-hazard tasks, such as hazard behaviour simulation and elements at risk assessment, are composed in order to understand complex hazard and provide support for decision making. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach herein presented can be used to assist emergency management of hurricane consequences, in theory and in practice.

  18. A look into hurricane Maria rapid intensification using Meteo-France's Arome-Antilles model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilon, R.; Faure, G.; Dupont, T.; Chauvin, F.

    2017-12-01

    Category 5 Hurricane Maria created a string of humanitarian crises. It caused billions of dollars of damage over the Caribbean but is also one of the worst natural disaster in Dominica.The hurricane took approximately 29 hours to strengthen from a tropical storm to a major category 5 hurricane. Here we present real-time forecasts of high resolution (2.5 km) Arome-Antilles regional model forced by real-time ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System. The model was able to relatively represent well the rapid intensification of the hurricane whether it was in timing or in location of the eye and strength of its eye wall.We will present an outline of results.

  19. Hurricane Harvey, Houston's Petrochemical Industry, and US Chemical Safety Policy: Impacts to Environmental Justice Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Johnson, C.; Gutierrez, A.; Declet-Barreto, J.; Berman, E.; Bergman, A.

    2017-12-01

    When Hurricane Harvey made landfall outside Houston, Texas, the storm's wind speeds and unprecedented precipitation caused significant damage to the region's petrochemical infrastructure. Most notably, the company Arkema's Crosby facility suffered a power failure that led to explosions and incineration of six of its peroxide tanks. Chemicals released into the air from the explosions sent 15 emergency responders to the hospital with severe respiratory conditions and led to the evacuation of hundreds of surrounding households. Other petrochemical facilities faced other damages that resulted in unsafe and acute chemical releases into the air and water. What impacts did such chemical disasters have on the surrounding communities and emergency responders during Harvey's aftermath? What steps might companies have taken to prevent such chemical releases? And what chemical safety policies might have ensured that such disaster risks were mitigated? In this talk we will report on a survey of the extent of damage to Houston's oil and gas infrastructure and related chemical releases and discuss the role of federal chemical safety policy in preventing and mitigating the potential for such risks for future storms and other extreme weather and climate events. We will also discuss how these chemical disasters created acute toxics exposures on environmental justice communities already overburdened with chronic exposures from the petrochemical industry.

  20. Health Risk Assessment and DNA Damage of Volatile Organic Compounds in Car Painting Houses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patpida Siripongpokin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Car painters who work near volatile organic compounds (VOCs sources, including paints, solvents and painting processes may be exposed to highly elevated VOCs levels. This study investigates air samples from car painting houses in Thailand to evaluate the health risks following inhalation exposure. Personal air samplings were obtained at nine garages in Phitsanulok, Thailand from June to September 2012. The concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes, and styrene in the air workplaces were significantly higher than in a control group of office workers (p < 0.05. Toluene, xylene and ethylbenzene were the most abundant species. However, all VOCs in these air samples were lower than TWA limit of Thailand and the OSHA standard. The lifetime cancer and non-cancer risks for the workers exposed to VOCs were also assessed. The average lifetime cancer risk was 41.0 (38.2-47.2 per million, which is in the acceptable risk. The average lifetime non-cancer risk, the HI, was 0.962 (0.643-1.397, which is well below the reference hazard level. Urine samples, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed for VOCs metabolites, including t,t muconic acid, hippuric acid, mandelic acid and m-hippuric acid, demonstrate that the average levels of metabolites in car painters and in controls were close. All VOCs metabolites in urine samples were lower than BEI of ACGIH standard. Blood samples, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed by single cell gel electrophoresis (comet assay. The DNA damage, assessed by tail moment, demonstrates that the average of tail moment in car painters were significantly higher than in the controls (p < 0.05.

  1. A canopy trimming experiment in Puerto Rico: the response of litter invertebrate communities to canopy loss and debris deposition in a tropical forest subject to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbara A. Richardson; Michael J. Richardson; Grizelle Gonzalez; Aaron B. Shiels; Diane S. Srivastava

    2010-01-01

    Hurricanes cause canopy removal and deposition of pulses of litter to the forest floor. A Canopy Trimming Experiment (CTE) was designed to decouple these two factors, and to investigate the separate abiotic and biotic consequences of hurricane-type damage and monitor recovery processes. As part of this experiment, effects on forest floor invertebrate communities were...

  2. Partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of incident radiographic osteoarthritis and worsening cartilage damage in the following year

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roemer, Frank W. [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Department of Radiology, Erlangen (Germany); Kwoh, C.K. [University of Arizona Arthritis Center and University of Arizona College of Medicine, Tucson, AZ (United States); Hannon, Michael J.; Grago, Jason [University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Division of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Hunter, David J. [University of Sydney, Department of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital and Kolling Institute, St Leonards (Australia); Eckstein, Felix [Paracelsus Medical University, Institute of Anatomy, Salzburg (Austria); Boudreau, Robert M. [University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Englund, Martin [Lund University, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Orthopaedics, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund (Sweden); Guermazi, Ali [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

    2017-01-15

    To assess whether partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) and worsening cartilage damage in the following year. We studied 355 knees from the Osteoarthritis Initiative that developed ROA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2), which were matched with control knees. The MR images were assessed using the semi-quantitative MOAKS system. Conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate risk of incident ROA. Logistic regression was used to assess the risk of worsening cartilage damage in knees with partial meniscectomy that developed ROA. In the group with incident ROA, 4.4 % underwent partial meniscectomy during the year prior to the case-defining visit, compared with none of the knees that did not develop ROA. All (n = 31) knees that had partial meniscectomy and 58.9 % (n = 165) of the knees with prevalent meniscal damage developed ROA (OR = 2.51, 95 % CI [1.73, 3.64]). In knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with an increased risk of worsening cartilage damage (OR = 4.51, 95 % CI [1.53, 13.33]). The probability of having had partial meniscectomy was higher in knees that developed ROA. When looking only at knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with greater risk of worsening cartilage damage. (orig.)

  3. Hurricane Agnes rainfall and floods, June-July 1972

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, James F.; Patterson, James Lee; Paulhus, Joseph Louis Hornore

    1975-01-01

    Hurricane Agnes originated in the Caribbean Sea region in mid-June. Circulation barely reached hurricane intensity for a brief period in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm crossed the Florida Panhandle coastline on June 19, 1972, and followed an unusually extended overland trajectory combining with an extratropical system to bring very heavy rain from the Carolinas northward to New York. This torrential rain followed the abnormally wet May weather in the Middle Atlantic States and set the stage for the subsequent major flooding. The record-breaking floods occurred in the Middle Atlantic States in late June and early July 1972. Many streams in the affected area experienced peak discharges several times the previous maxima of record. Estimated recurrence intervals of peak flows at many gaging stations on major rivers and their tributaries exceeded 100 years. The suspended-sediment concentration and load of most flooded streams were also unusually high. The widespread flooding from this storm caused Agnes to be called the most destructive hurricane in United States history, claiming 117 lives and causing damage estimated at $3.1 billion in 12 States. Damage was particularly high in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia. The detailed life history of Hurricane Agnes, including the tropical depression and tropical storm stages, is traced. Associated rainfalls are analyzed and compared with climatologic recurrence values. These are followed by a detailed description of the flood and streamflows of each affected basin. A summary of peak stages and discharges and comparison data for previous floods at 989 stations are presented. Deaths and flood damage estimates are compiled.

  4. Review of the Oconee-3 probabilistic risk assessment: external events, core damage frequency. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanan, N.A.; Ilberg, D.; Xue, D.; Youngblood, R.; Reed, J.W.; McCann, M.; Talwani, T.; Wreathall, J.; Kurth, P.D.; Bandyopadhyay, K.

    1986-03-01

    A review of the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (OPRA) was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating qualitatively and quantitatively (as much as possible) the OPRA assessment of the important sequences that are ''externally'' generated and lead to core damage. The review included a technical assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the OPRA within its stated objective and with the limited information available. Within this scope, BNL performed a detailed reevaluation of the accident sequences generated by internal floods and earthquakes and a less detailed review (in some cases a scoping review) for the accident sequences generated by fires, tornadoes, external floods, and aircraft impact. 12 refs., 24 figs., 31 tabs.

  5. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change...... adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost...... of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift...

  6. Review of the Oconee-3 probabilistic risk assessment: external events, core damage frequency. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanan, N.A.; Ilberg, D.; Xue, D.

    1986-03-01

    A review of the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (OPRA) was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating qualitatively and quantitatively (as much as possible) the OPRA assessment of the important sequences that are ''externally'' generated and lead to core damage. The review included a technical assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the OPRA within its stated objective and with the limited information available. Within this scope, BNL performed a detailed reevaluation of the accident sequences generated by internal floods and earthquakes and a less detailed review (in some cases a scoping review) for the accident sequences generated by fires, tornadoes, external floods, and aircraft impact. 12 refs., 24 figs., 31 tabs

  7. TREES OF DAMAGES AS A MODEL OF RISKS ASSESSMENT FOR AVAILABILITY LOSSES AFTER CHANGES IN FINANCIAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Arustamov

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the methodology for risks assessment of availability losses in financial information systems after changes made in them by using trees of damages. A description of damages tree generation for each identified possible event is presented that potentially can lead to the system availability loss. An example is given, illustrating the methodology application that gives the possibility to choose the optimal software testing strategy.

  8. Cumulative Effects of Several Target Organ Damages in Risk Assessment in Hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbaoui, Brahim; Courand, Pierre-Yves; Defforges, Alice; Khettab, Fouad; Milon, Hugues; Girerd, Nicolas; Lantelme, Pierre

    2016-02-01

    The prognostic value of screening multiple target organ damages (TODs) in hypertensive subjects has not been extensively studied. We estimated the prognostic value of considering 3 TODs in estimating the 10-year survival in hypertensive subjects. At baseline 1,848 out of a cohort of 1,963 hypertensive patients had a previous cardiovascular disease (CVD) or assessments of 3 TODs: Modification in Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) 300mg/day, Sokolow index >3.5 mV, and advanced hypertensive retinopathy (grades 3 and 4 of Keith-Wagener-Barker classification). The cohort was divided into 5 groups: 0 TOD (N = 978), 1 TOD (N = 308), 2 TODs (N = 94), 3 TODs (N = 30), and previous CVD (N = 438). After 10 years of follow-up, we observed 418 deaths of which 254 from cardiovascular cause. The adjusted hazard ratios for the major cardiovascular risk factors showed a progressive risk associated with the number of TODs. For all-cause death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] vs. 0 TOD of the other 4 groups were 1.91 [1.39-2.63], 1.99 [1.28-3.10], 4.33 [2.42-7.72], and 3.09 [2.35-4.05], respectively. For cardiovascular death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] were of the same order of magnitude: 2.14 [1.38-3.32], 2.12 [1.15-3.89], 4.22 [1.83-9.72], and 4.24 [2.95-6.11], respectively. Our results indicate that hypertensive patients with several TODs had a worst outcome. Thus, it seems important to screen for multiple TODs in hypertension; especially check for severe hypertensive retinopathy in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and renal damage. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Hurricane Season: Are You Ready?

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-09-24

    Hurricanes are one of Mother Nature’s most powerful forces. Host Bret Atkins talks with CDC’s National Center for Environmental Health Director Dr. Chris Portier about the main threats of a hurricane and how you can prepare.  Created: 9/24/2012 by Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (OPHPR), National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH), and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR).   Date Released: 9/24/2012.

  10. Family and Individual Factors Associated with Substance Involvement and PTS Symptoms among Adolescents in Greater New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Cynthia L.; La Greca, Annette M.; Alexandersson, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Objective: This study examined the influence of hurricane impact as well as family and individual risk factors on posttraumatic stress (PTS) symptoms and substance involvement among clinically referred adolescents affected by Hurricane Katrina. Method: A total of 80 adolescents (87% male; 13-17 years old; mean age = 15.6 years; 38% minorities) and…

  11. Hurricane-related emergency department visits in an inland area: an analysis of the public health impact of Hurricane Hugo in North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, R D; Morris, P D; Cole, T B

    1994-04-01

    To evaluate the public health impact of a hurricane on an inland area. Descriptive study. Seven hospital emergency departments. Patients who were treated from September 22 to October 6, 1989, for an injury or illness related to Hurricane Hugo. None. Over the two-week study period, 2,090 patients were treated for injuries or illnesses related to the hurricane. Of these, 1,833 (88%) were treated for injuries. Insect stings and wounds accounted for almost half of the total cases. A substantial proportion (26%) of the patients suffering from stings had a generalized reaction (eg, hives, wheezing, or both). Nearly one-third of the wounds were caused by chain saws. Hurricanes can lead to substantial morbidity in an inland area. Disaster plans should address risks associated with stinging insects and hazardous equipment and should address ways to improve case reporting.

  12. Emergency Response Imagery Related to Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worthem, A. V.; Madore, B.; Imahori, G.; Woolard, J.; Sellars, J.; Halbach, A.; Helmricks, D.; Quarrick, J.

    2017-12-01

    NOAA's National Geodetic Survey (NGS) and Remote Sensing Division acquired and rapidly disseminated emergency response imagery related to the three recent hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Aerial imagery was collected using a Trimble Digital Sensor System, a high-resolution digital camera, by means of NOAA's King Air 350ER and DeHavilland Twin Otter (DHC-6) Aircraft. The emergency response images are used to assess the before and after effects of the hurricanes' damage. The imagery aids emergency responders, such as FEMA, Coast Guard, and other state and local governments, in developing recovery strategies and efforts by prioritizing areas most affected and distributing appropriate resources. Collected imagery is also used to provide damage assessment for use in long-term recovery and rebuilding efforts. Additionally, the imagery allows for those evacuated persons to see images of their homes and neighborhoods remotely. Each of the individual images are processed through ortho-rectification and merged into a uniform mosaic image. These remotely sensed datasets are publically available, and often used by web-based map servers as well as, federal, state, and local government agencies. This poster will show the imagery collected for these three hurricanes and the processes involved in getting data quickly into the hands of those that need it most.

  13. Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

  14. Flood Risk Characterization for the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarini, G.; Smith, J. A.; Ntelekos, A. A.

    2009-04-01

    Tropical cyclones landfalling in the eastern United States pose a major risk for insured property and can lead to extensive damage through storm surge flooding, inland flooding or extreme windspeeds. Current hurricane cat-models do not include calculations of inland flooding from the outer rainfall bands of tropical cyclones but the issue is becoming increasingly important for commercial insurance risk assessment. The results of this study could be used to feed into the next generation of hurricane cat-models and assist in the calculation of damages from inland hurricane flood damage. Annual maximum peak discharge records from more than 400 stations in the eastern United States with at least 75 years of record to examine the role of landfalling tropical cyclones in controlling the upper tail of inland flood risk for the eastern United States. In addition to examining tropical cyclone inland flood risk at specific locations, the spatial extent of extreme flooding from lanfalling tropical cyclones is analyzed. Analyses of temporal trends and abrupt changes in the mean and variance of annual flood peaks are performed. Change-point analysis is performed using the non-parametric Pettitt test. Two non-parametric (Mann-Kendall and Spearman) tests and one parametric (Pearson) test are applied to detect the presence of temporal trends. Flood risk characterization centers on assessments of the spatial variation in "upper tail" properties of annual flood peak distributions. The modeling framework for flood frequency analysis is provided by the Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS).

  15. Effectiveness of FDA's new over-the-counter acetaminophen warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyal, R K; Rajan, S S; Essien, E J; Sansgiry, S S

    2012-12-01

    The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued new organ-specific warning label requirements for over-the-counter (OTC) analgesic products in order to make consumers aware of the risk of liver damage when using acetaminophen. However, awareness of a health risk alone cannot ensure consumers' engagement in safe and preventive behaviour. In this study, we attempted to: (i) measure consumer risk perception of liver damage due to the OTC acetaminophen products and (ii) analyse the effectiveness of the new organ-specific warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage and intention to perform protective behaviours while using OTC acetaminophen products. This within-subject experimental study used a convenience sample of English-speaking adults visiting OTC segments of selected pharmacy stores in Houston. Participants were randomly exposed to the old and new warning labels and their respective risk perception (measured on a visual analogue scale, 0%, no risk, to 100%, extreme risk) and behavioural intention (measured on a 7-point Likert scale) were recorded using a validated, self-administered questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were performed using sas statistical software (v 9.2) at a priori significance level of 0.05. Majority of participants (74.4%) were not aware of the new warnings; however, majority (67.8%) had prior knowledge of the risk. The mean risk perception score for the new warning label was found to be significantly higher (72.2% vs. 65.9%, P risk perception of potential liver damage and may encourage protective behaviour. However, future studies are essential to assess the impact of the new label on actual changes in consumer behaviour and subsequent reduction in acetaminophen-related morbidity and mortality. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  16. Recent Atlantic Hurricanes, Pacific Super Typhoons, and Tropical Storm Awareness in Underdeveloped Island and Coastal Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plondke, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. in 12 years. The next tropical storm in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was Hurricane Irma, a category 5 storm and the strongest storm to strike the U.S. mainland since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. These two storms were the third and fourth in a sequence of 10 consecutive storms to reach hurricane status in this season that ranks at least seventh among the most active seasons as measured by the Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. Assessment of damage from Harvey may prove it to be the costliest storm in U.S. history, approaching $190 billion. Irma was the first category 5 hurricane to hit the Leeward Islands, devastating island environments including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Barbuda, Saint Barthelemy, and Anguilla with sustained winds reaching at times 185 mph. Together with the two super typhoons of the 2017 Pacific season, Noru and Lan, the two Atlantic hurricanes rank among the strongest, longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record. How many more billions of dollars will be expended in recovery and reconstruction efforts following future mega-disasters comparable to those of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma? Particularly on Caribbean and tropical Pacific islands with specialized and underdeveloped economies, aging and substandard infrastructure often cannot even partially mitigate against the impacts of major hurricanes. The most frequently used measurements of storm impact are insufficient to assess the economic impact. Analysis of the storm tracks and periods of greatest storm intensity of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and Super Typhoons Lan and Noru, in spatial relationship with island and coastal administrative regions, shows that rainfall totals, flooded area estimates, and property/infrastructure damage dollar estimates are all quantitative indicators of storm impact, but do not measure the costs that result from lack of storm preparedness and education of residents

  17. Application of crowdsourced hail data and damage information for hail risk assessment in the province of Styria, Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tani, Satyanarayana; Rechberger, Andreas; Süsser Rechberger, Barbara; Teschl, Reinhard; Paulitsch, Helmut

    2017-04-01

    Hail storm damage is a major concern to the farmers in the province of Styria, Austria. Each year severe hail storms are causing damages to crops, resulting in losses of millions of euros. High spatial and timely ground truth information of the hail event and crop damage measurements are essential for better hail risk assessment. Usually, hail pad networks and visual damage surveys are used to collect the hail data and corresponding damage information. However, these hail pad networks are expensive and need laborious maintenance. The traditional crop damage assessment approaches are very labour-intensive and time-consuming. The advancements in information and communication technology (ICT) and the power of citizen based crowdsourcing data, will help to overcome these problems and ultimately provide a platform for data collection. A user-friendly and bilingual web interface was developed to collect hail data and crop damage information in the province of Styria, Austria. The dynamic web interface was developed using HTML5, JavaScript, and PHP7 combined with a MySQL database back-end. OpenStreetMap was integrated into the web interface and tile server optimised for an easy identification of geolocation information. The user needs an internet connection to transfer the data through smartphone or computer. Crowdsourced data will be quality tested and evaluated with 3D single polarisation C-band weather radar data to remove potential false reports. Further, the relationship between the reported hail events and radar-based hail detection algorithms (Waldvogel and Auer) and derived hail signature information intended for crop hail risk assessment will be investigated. The details about the web interface tool, application and verification methods to collect, analyse, and integrate different data sets are given. Further, the high spatial risk assessment information is communicated to support risk management policy.

  18. Petroleum industry assists hurricane relief

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the petroleum industry is aiding victims of last month's Hurricane Andrew with cash, clothing, food, water, and other supplies. Cash contributions announced as of last week totaled more than $2.7 million for distribution in South Florida and South Louisiana. Petroleum industry employees were collecting relief items such as bottled water and diapers for distribution in those areas

  19. Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.; Shugart, Herman H.

    2017-01-01

    Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model -based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes, manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the

  20. Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, Cameron; Gutmann, Ethan; Jones, Russell; Rissing, Matthew; Mizukami, Naoki; Lorie, Mark; Mahoney, Hardee; Wood, Andrew W.; Mills, David; Martinich, Jeremy

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year) flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

  1. Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wobus

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS. We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars, suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods. Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

  2. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Skovgård Olsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift in the damage costs as a function of the return period. The shift occurs approximately at the 10 year return period and can perhaps be related to the design criteria for sewer systems. Further, it was tested if the EAD estimation could be simplified by assuming a single unit cost per flooded area. The results indicate that within each catchment this may be a feasible approach. However the unit costs varies substantially between different case study areas. Hence it is not feasible to develop unit costs that can be used to calculate EAD, most likely because the urban landscape is too heterogeneous.

  3. The Importance of Hurricane Research to Life, Property, the Economy, and National Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busalacchi, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    The devastating 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has brought into stark relief how much hurricane forecasts have improved - and how important it is to make them even better. Whereas the error in 48-hour track forecasts has been reduced by more than half, according to the National Hurricane Center, intensity forecasts remain challenging, especially with storms such as Harvey that strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in less than three days. The unusually active season, with Hurricane Irma sustaining 185-mph winds for a record 36 hours and two Atlantic hurricanes reaching 150-mph winds simultaneously for the first time, also highlighted what we do, and do not, know about how tropical cyclones will change as the climate warms. The extraordinary toll of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria - which may ultimately be responsible for hundreds of deaths and an estimated $200 billion or more in damages - underscores why investments into improved forecasting must be a national priority. At NCAR and UCAR, scientists are working with their colleagues at federal agencies, the private sector, and the university community to advance our understanding of these deadly storms. Among their many projects, NCAR researchers are making experimental tropical cyclone forecasts using an innovative Earth system model that allows for variable resolution. We are working with NOAA to issue flooding, inundation, and streamflow forecasts for areas hit by hurricanes, and we have used extremely high-resolution regional models to simulate successfully the rapid hurricane intensification that has proved so difficult to predict. We are assessing ways to better predict the damage potential of tropical cyclones by looking beyond wind speed to consider such important factors as the size and forward motion of the storm. On the important question of climate change, scientists have experimented with running coupled climate models at a high enough resolution to spin up a hurricane

  4. Climate Risk Modelling of Balsam Woolly Adelgid Damage Severity in Subalpine Fir Stands of Western North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrinkevich, Kathryn H; Progar, Robert A; Shaw, David C

    2016-01-01

    The balsam woolly adelgid (Adelges piceae (Ratzeburg) (Homoptera: Adelgidae)) (BWA) is a nonnative, invasive insect that threatens Abies species throughout North America. It is well established in the Pacific Northwest, but continues to move eastward through Idaho and into Montana and potentially threatens subalpine fir to the south in the central and southern Rocky Mountains. We developed a climatic risk model and map that predicts BWA impacts to subalpine fir using a two-step process. Using 30-year monthly climate normals from sites with quantitatively derived BWA damage severity index values, we built a regression model that significantly explained insect damage. The sites were grouped into two distinct damage categories (high damage and mortality versus little or no mortality and low damage) and the model estimates for each group were used to designate distinct value ranges for four climatic risk categories: minimal, low, moderate, and high. We then calculated model estimates for each cell of a 4-kilometer resolution climate raster and mapped the risk categories over the entire range of subalpine fir in the western United States. The spatial variation of risk classes indicates a gradient of climatic susceptibility generally decreasing from the Olympic Peninsula in Washington and the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington moving eastward, with the exception of some high risk areas in northern Idaho and western Montana. There is also a pattern of decreasing climatic susceptibility from north to south in the Rocky Mountains. Our study provides an initial step for modeling the relationship between climate and BWA damage severity across the range of subalpine fir. We showed that September minimum temperature and a metric calculated as the maximum May temperature divided by total May precipitation were the best climatic predictors of BWA severity. Although winter cold temperatures and summer heat have been shown to influence BWA impacts in other locations, these

  5. Effect of Hurricane Andrew on the Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station from August 20--30, 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hebdon, F.J.

    1993-03-01

    On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew, a Category 4 hurricane, struck the Turkey Point Electrical Generating Station with sustained winds of 145 mph (233 km/h). This is the report of the team that the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) jointly sponsored (1) to review the damage that the hurricane caused the nuclear units and the utility's actions to prepare for the storm and recover from it, and (2) to compile lessons that might benefit other nuclear reactor facilities

  6. Effect of Hurricane Andrew on the Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station from August 20--30, 1992. [Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hebdon, F.J. [Institute of Nuclear Power Operations, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    1993-03-01

    On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew, a Category 4 hurricane, struck the Turkey Point Electrical Generating Station with sustained winds of 145 mph (233 km/h). This is the report of the team that the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) jointly sponsored (1) to review the damage that the hurricane caused the nuclear units and the utility`s actions to prepare for the storm and recover from it, and (2) to compile lessons that might benefit other nuclear reactor facilities.

  7. Ultraviolet Radiation-Induced Cytogenetic Damage in White, Hispanic and Black Skin Melanocytes: A Risk for Cutaneous Melanoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dasgupta, Amrita [Hampton University Skin of Color Research Institute, Hampton, VA 23668 (United States); Katdare, Meena, E-mail: mkatdare@gmail.com [Hampton University Skin of Color Research Institute, Hampton, VA 23668 (United States); Department of Dermatology, Eastern Virginia Medical School, Norfolk, VA 23507 (United States)

    2015-08-14

    Cutaneous Melanoma (CM) is a leading cause of cancer deaths, with reports indicating a rising trend in the incidence rate of melanoma among Hispanics in certain U.S. states. The level of melanin pigmentation in the skin is suggested to render photoprotection from the DNA-damaging effects of Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR). UVR-induced DNA damage leads to cytogenetic defects visualized as the formation of micronuclei, multinuclei and polymorphic nuclei in cells, and a hallmark of cancer risk. The causative relationship between Sun exposure and CM is controversial, especially in Hispanics and needs further evaluation. This study was initiated with melanocytes from White, Hispanic and Black neonatal foreskins which were exposed to UVR to assess their susceptibility to UVR-induced modulation of cellular growth, cytogenetic damage, intracellular and released melanin. Our results show that White and Hispanic skin melanocytes with similar levels of constitutive melanin are susceptible to UVR-induced cytogenetic damage, whereas Black skin melanocytes are not. Our data suggest that the risk of developing UVR-induced CM in a skin type is correlated with the level of cutaneous pigmentation and its ethnic background. This study provides a benchmark for further investigation on the damaging effects of UVR as risk for CM in Hispanics.

  8. Ultraviolet Radiation-Induced Cytogenetic Damage in White, Hispanic and Black Skin Melanocytes: A Risk for Cutaneous Melanoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dasgupta, Amrita; Katdare, Meena

    2015-01-01

    Cutaneous Melanoma (CM) is a leading cause of cancer deaths, with reports indicating a rising trend in the incidence rate of melanoma among Hispanics in certain U.S. states. The level of melanin pigmentation in the skin is suggested to render photoprotection from the DNA-damaging effects of Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR). UVR-induced DNA damage leads to cytogenetic defects visualized as the formation of micronuclei, multinuclei and polymorphic nuclei in cells, and a hallmark of cancer risk. The causative relationship between Sun exposure and CM is controversial, especially in Hispanics and needs further evaluation. This study was initiated with melanocytes from White, Hispanic and Black neonatal foreskins which were exposed to UVR to assess their susceptibility to UVR-induced modulation of cellular growth, cytogenetic damage, intracellular and released melanin. Our results show that White and Hispanic skin melanocytes with similar levels of constitutive melanin are susceptible to UVR-induced cytogenetic damage, whereas Black skin melanocytes are not. Our data suggest that the risk of developing UVR-induced CM in a skin type is correlated with the level of cutaneous pigmentation and its ethnic background. This study provides a benchmark for further investigation on the damaging effects of UVR as risk for CM in Hispanics

  9. Quantifying the severity of hurricanes on extinction probabilities of a primate population: Insights into "Island" extirpations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ameca y Juárez, Eric I; Ellis, Edward A; Rodríguez-Luna, Ernesto

    2015-07-01

    Long-term studies quantifying impacts of hurricane activity on growth and trajectory of primate populations are rare. Using a 14-year monitored population of Alouatta palliata mexicana as a study system, we developed a modeling framework to assess the relative contribution of hurricane disturbance and two types of human impacts, habitat loss, and hunting, on quasi-extinction risk. We found that the scenario with the highest level of disturbance generated a 21% increase in quasi-extinction risk by 40 years compared to scenarios of intermediate disturbance, and around 67% increase relative to that found in low disturbance scenarios. We also found that the probability of reaching quasi-extinction due to human disturbance alone was below 1% by 40 years, although such scenarios reduced population size by 70%, whereas the risk of quasi-extinction ranged between 3% and 65% for different scenarios of hurricane severity alone, in absence of human impacts. Our analysis moreover found that the quasi-extinction risk driven by hunting and hurricane disturbance was significantly lower than the quasi-extinction risk posed by human-driven habitat loss and hurricane disturbance. These models suggest that hurricane disturbance has the potential to exceed the risk posed by human impacts, and, in particular, to substantially increase the speed of the extinction vortex driven by habitat loss relative to that driven by hunting. Early mitigation of habitat loss constituted the best method for reducing quasi-extinction risk: the earlier habitat loss is halted, the less vulnerable the population becomes to hurricane disturbance. By using a well-studied population of A. p. mexicana, we help understand the demographic impacts that extreme environmental disturbance can trigger on isolated populations of taxa already endangered in other systems where long-term demographic data are not available. For those experiencing heavy anthropogenic pressure and lacking sufficiently evolved coping

  10. Hurricane Isabel gives accelerators a severe test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swapan Chattopadhyay

    2004-01-01

    Hurricane Isabel was at category five--the most violent on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane strength--when it began threatening the central Atlantic seaboard of the US. Over the course of several days, precautions against the extreme weather conditions were taken across the Jefferson Lab site in south-east Virginia. On 18 September 2003, when Isabel struck North Carolina's Outer Banks and moved northward, directly across the region around the laboratory, the storm was still quite destructive, albeit considerably reduced in strength. The flood surge and trees felled by wind substantially damaged or even devastated buildings and homes, including many belonging to Jefferson Lab staff members. For the laboratory itself, Isabel delivered an unplanned and severe challenge in another form: a power outage that lasted nearly three-and-a-half days, and which severely tested the robustness of Jefferson Lab's two superconducting machines, the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) and the superconducting radiofrequency ''driver'' accelerator of the laboratory's free-electron laser. Robustness matters greatly for science at a time when microwave superconducting linear accelerators (linacs) are not only being considered, but in some cases already being built for projects such as neutron sources, rare-isotope accelerators, innovative light sources and TeV-scale electron-positron linear colliders. Hurricane Isabel interrupted a several-week-long maintenance shutdown of CEBAF, which serves nuclear and particle physics and represents the world's pioneering large-scale implementation of superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) technology. The racetrack-shaped machine is actually a pair of 500-600 MeV SRF linacs interconnected by recirculation arc beamlines. CEBAF delivers simultaneous beams at up to 6 GeV to three experimental halls. An imminent upgrade will double the energy to 12 GeV and add an extra hall for ''quark confinement'' studies. On a smaller scale

  11. Daily MODIS Data Trends of Hurricane-Induced Forest Impact and Early Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsey, Elijah, III; Spruce, Joseph; Rangoonwala, Amina; Suzuoki, Yukihiro; Smoot, James; Gasser, Jerry; Bannister, Terri

    2011-01-01

    We studied the use of daily satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors to assess wetland forest damage and recovery from Hurricane Katrina (29 August 2005 landfall). Processed MODIS daily vegetation index (VI) trends were consistent with previously determined impact and recovery patterns provided by the "snapshot" 25 m Landsat Thematic Mapper optical and RADARSAT-1 synthetic aperture radar satellite data. Phenological trends showed high 2004 and 2005 pre-hurricane temporal correspondence within bottomland hardwood forest communities, except during spring green-up, and temporal dissimilarity between these hardwoods and nearby cypress-tupelo swamp forests (Taxodium distichum [baldcypress] and Nyssa aquatica [water tupelo]). MODIS VI trend analyses established that one year after impact, cypress-tupelo and lightly impacted hardwood forests had recovered to near prehurricane conditions. In contrast, canopy recovery lagged in the moderately and severely damaged hardwood forests, possibly reflecting regeneration of pre-hurricane species and stand-level replacement by invasive trees.

  12. Mental health outcomes among adults in Galveston and Chambers counties after Hurricane Ike.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggiero, Kenneth J; Gros, Kirstin; McCauley, Jenna L; Resnick, Heidi S; Morgan, Mark; Kilpatrick, Dean G; Muzzy, Wendy; Acierno, Ron

    2012-03-01

      To examine the mental health effects of Hurricane Ike, the third costliest hurricane in US history, which devastated the upper Texas coast in September 2008.   Structured telephone interviews assessing immediate effects of Hurricane Ike (damage, loss, displacement) and mental health diagnoses were administered via random digit-dial methods to a household probability sample of 255 Hurricane Ike-affected adults in Galveston and Chambers counties.   Three-fourths of respondents evacuated the area because of Hurricane Ike and nearly 40% were displaced for at least one week. Postdisaster mental health prevalence estimates were 5.9% for posttraumatic stress disorder, 4.5% for major depressive episode, and 9.3% for generalized anxiety disorder. Bivariate analyses suggested that peritraumatic indicators of hurricane exposure severity-such as lack of adequate clean clothing, electricity, food, money, transportation, or water for at least one week-were most consistently associated with mental health problems.   The significant contribution of factors such as loss of housing, financial means, clothing, food, and water to the development and/or maintenance of negative mental health consequences highlights the importance of systemic postdisaster intervention resources targeted to meet basic needs in the postdisaster period.

  13. Hurricane Impacts on Small Island Communities: Case study of Hurricane Matthew on Great Exuma, The Bahamas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan Sealey, Kathleen; Bowleg, John

    2017-04-01

    Great Exuma has been a UNESCO Eco-hydrology Project Site with a focus on coastal restoration and flood management. Great Exuma and its largest settlement, George Town, support a population of just over 8.000 people on an island dominated by extensive coastal wetlands. The Victoria Pond Eco-Hydrology project restored flow and drainage to highly-altered coastal wetlands to reduce flooding of the built environment as well as regain ecological function. The project was designed to show the value of a protected wetland and coastal environment within a populated settlement; demonstrating that people can live alongside mangroves and value "green" infrastructure for flood protection. The restoration project was initiated after severe storm flooding in 2007 with Tropical Storm Noel. In 2016, the passing of Hurricane Matthew had unprecedented impacts on the coastal communities of Great Exuma, challenging past practices in restoration and flood prevention. This talk reviews the loss of natural capital (for example, fish populations, mangroves, salt water inundation) from Hurricane Matthew based on a rapid response survey of Great Exuma. The surprisingly find was the impact of storm surge on low-lying areas used primarily for personal farms and small-scale agriculture. Although women made up the overwhelming majority of people who attended Coastal Restoration workshops, women were most adversely impacted by the recent hurricane flooding with the loss of their small low-lying farms and gardens. Although increasing culverts in mangrove creeks in two areas did reduce building flood damage, the low-lying areas adjacent to mangroves, mostly ephemeral freshwater wetlands, were inundated with saltwater, and seasonal crops in these areas were destroyed. These ephemeral wetlands were designed as part of the wetland flooding system, it was not known how important these small areas were to artisanal farming on Great Exuma. The size and scope of Hurricane Matthew passing through the

  14. Effects of track and threat information on judgments of hurricane strike probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hao-Che; Lindell, Michael K; Prater, Carla S; Samuelson, Charles D

    2014-06-01

    Although evacuation is one of the best strategies for protecting citizens from hurricane threat, the ways that local elected officials use hurricane data in deciding whether to issue hurricane evacuation orders is not well understood. To begin to address this problem, we examined the effects of hurricane track and intensity information in a laboratory setting where participants judged the probability that hypothetical hurricanes with a constant bearing (i.e., straight line forecast track) would make landfall in each of eight 45 degree sectors around the Gulf of Mexico. The results from 162 participants in a student sample showed that the judged strike probability distributions over the eight sectors within each scenario were, unsurprisingly, unimodal and centered on the sector toward which the forecast track pointed. More significantly, although strike probability judgments for the sector in the direction of the forecast track were generally higher than the corresponding judgments for the other sectors, the latter were not zero. Most significantly, there were no appreciable differences in the patterns of strike probability judgments for hurricane tracks represented by a forecast track only, an uncertainty cone only, or forecast track with an uncertainty cone-a result consistent with a recent survey of coastal residents threatened by Hurricane Charley. The study results suggest that people are able to correctly process basic information about hurricane tracks but they do make some errors. More research is needed to understand the sources of these errors and to identify better methods of displaying uncertainty about hurricane parameters. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Coordinating ecological risk assessment with natural resource damage assessment: A panel discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Brenda; Ammann, Mike; Hoff, Rebecca; Huston, Mark; Jenkins, Kenneth; Palagyi, Tony; Pelto, Karen; Rettig, Todd; Wagner, Anne

    2016-10-01

    Contaminated sites in the United States undergo remediation and restoration through regulatory programs that lead the 2 processes through independent but often parallel pathways with different objectives. The objective of remediation is to reduce risk to human health and the environment, whereas that of restoration is to restore injured resources and compensate the public for lost use of the services that natural resources provide. More complex sites, such as those associated with large river systems and urban waterways, have resulted in increasingly larger-scale ecological risk assessments (ERAs) and natural resource damage assessments (NRDAs) that take many years and involve diverse practitioners including scientists, economists, and engineers. Substantial levels of effort are now frequently required, creating a need for more efficient and cost-effective approaches to data collection, analyses, and assessments. Because there are commonalities in the data needs between ERAs and NRDAs, coordination of the design and implementation of site-specific studies that meet the needs of both programs could result in increased efficiency and lower costs. The Association for Environmental Health and Sciences Foundation convened a panel of environmental practitioners from industry, consulting, and regulatory bodies to examine the benefits and challenges associated with coordinating ERA and NRDA activities in the context of a broad range of regulatory programs. This brief communication presents the opinions and conclusions of the panelists on these issues and reports 2 case studies for which coordinated ERA and NRDA activities produced a positive outcome. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:616-621. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

  16. Post-Hurricane Successional Dynamics in Abundance and Diversity of Canopy Arthropods in a Tropical Rainforest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schowalter, T D; Willig, M R; Presley, S J

    2017-02-01

    We quantified long-term successional trajectories of canopy arthropods on six tree species in a tropical rainforest ecosystem in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico that experienced repeated hurricane-induced disturbances during the 19-yr study (1991-2009). We expected: 1) differential performances of arthropod species to result in taxon- or guild-specific responses; 2) differences in initial conditions to result in distinct successional responses to each hurricane; and 3) the legacy of hurricane-created gaps to persist despite subsequent disturbances. At least one significant effect of gap, time after hurricane, or their interaction occurred for 53 of 116 analyses of taxon abundance, 31 of 84 analyses of guild abundance, and 21 of 60 analyses of biodiversity (e.g., richness, evenness, dominance, and rarity). Significant responses were ∼60% more common for time after hurricane than for gap creation, indicating that temporal changes in habitat during recovery were of primary importance. Both increases and decreases in abundance or diversity occurred in response to each factor. Guild-level responses were probably driven by changes in the abundance of resources on which they rely. For example, detritivores were most abundant soon after hurricanes when litter resources were elevated, whereas sap-suckers were most abundant in gaps where new foliage growth was the greatest. The legacy of canopy gaps created by Hurricane Hugo persisted for at least 19 yr, despite droughts and other hurricanes of various intensities that caused forest damage. This reinforces the need to consider historical legacies when seeking to understand responses to disturbance. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Integrity management of Brazil-Bolivia gas pipeline to reduce risks due third party damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcellos, Carlos Renato Aragonez de; Monte, Oswaldo [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Colen, Eustaquio; Cunha, Roberto de Souza; Oliveira, Hudson Regis de [Transportadora Brasileira Gasoduto Bolivia-Brasil, S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Lima, Rogerio de Souza [RSL Consultoria Geoprojetos (Brazil); Schultz Neto, Walter [Milton Braga Assessoria Tecnica (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    The Bolivia-Brazil Natural Gas Pipeline has 2.600 kilometers from Rio Grande City in Bolivia to Canoas City, in the south of Brazil. The right-of-way crosses a lot of types of topography and areas subjected to various kinds of anthropological actions, like areas in class locations 3, locals under agricultural activities, forests and minerals explorations, and near constructions of highway and railway, industrial constructions, new pipelines in the same right-of -way, channels, dams, that requires special projects to avoid that the gas pipeline could be subject to strengths that were not consider in the original design. The aim of this paper is to present the jobs developed by TBG during seven years of gas pipeline operations, as public awareness program, procedures to design, construct and inspect specials constructions along and near the right-of -way, control of mineral and forest explorations, monitoring and controlling of excavations on the right-of-way to install new pipelines and optical cables, to reduce risks of gas pipeline damage due third party, as a component of TBG' Managing Integrity Gas Pipeline Program. (author)

  18. The Impact of Hurricane Maria on the Vegetation of Dominica and Puerto Rico Using Multispectral Remote Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tangao Hu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available As the worst natural disaster on record in Dominica and Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria in September 2017 had a large impact on the vegetation of these islands. In this paper, multitemporal Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 data are used to investigate vegetation damage on Dominica and Puerto Rico by Hurricane Maria, and related influencing factors are analyzed. Moreover, the changes in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI in the year 2017 are compared to reference years (2015 and 2016. The results show that (1 there is a sudden drop in NDVI values after Hurricane Maria’s landfall (decreased about 0.2 which returns to near normal vegetation after 1.5 months; (2 different land cover types have different sensitivities to Hurricane Maria, whereby forest is the most sensitive type, then followed by wetland, built-up, and natural grassland; and (3 for Puerto Rico, the vegetation damage is highly correlated with distance from the storm center and elevation. For Dominica, where the whole island is within Hurricane Maria’s radius of maximum wind, the vegetation damage has no obvious relationship to elevation or distance. The study provides insight into the sensitivity and recovery of vegetation after a major land-falling hurricane, and may lead to improved vegetation protection strategies.

  19. Urban seismic risk assessment: statistical repair cost data and probable structural losses based on damage scenario—correlation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eleftheriadou, Anastasia K.; Baltzopoulou, Aikaterini D.; Karabinis, Athanasios I.

    2016-06-01

    The current seismic risk assessment is based on two discrete approaches, actual and probable, validating afterwards the produced results. In the first part of this research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the 7/9/1999 Parnitha (Athens) earthquake. The actual evaluated seismic risk is afterwards compared to the estimated probable structural losses, which is presented in the second part of the paper, based on a damage scenario in the referring earthquake. The applied damage scenario is based on recently developed damage probability matrices (DPMs) from Athens (Greece) damage database. The seismic risk estimation refers to 750,085 buildings situated in the extended urban region of Athens. The building exposure is categorized in five typical structural types and represents 18.80 % of the entire building stock in Greece. The last information is provided by the National Statistics Service of Greece (NSSG) according to the 2000-2001 census. The seismic input is characterized by the ratio, a g/ a o, where a g is the regional peak ground acceleration (PGA) which is evaluated from the earlier estimated research macroseismic intensities, and a o is the PGA according to the hazard map of the 2003 Greek Seismic Code. Finally, the collected investigated financial data derived from different National Services responsible for the post-earthquake crisis management concerning the repair/strengthening or replacement costs or other categories of costs for the rehabilitation of earthquake victims (construction and function of settlements for earthquake homeless, rent supports, demolitions, shorings) are used to determine the final total seismic risk factor.

  20. From the incident command center oil spills from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guidry, R.J. [Lousiana Oil Spill Coordinator' s Office, Baton Rouge, LA (United States)

    2006-07-01

    Approximately 30.2 million litres of oil were discharged during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. A total of 230 incidents were reported to the state's spill response community, including ruptured pipelines, damaged and moved storage tanks, refineries, and sunken vessels. By January 2006, industry had reported the recovery of 14.7 million litres of oil. After Hurricane Rita, a further 234 off- and onshore incidents were reported. This paper presented a chronology from August 26 2005 through to June 2006 of clean-up activities for both hurricanes, with specific reference to logistic and communications issues associated with working in environments that are difficult to access due to damaged transportation infrastructure. An outline of the Louisiana Oil Spill Coordinator's Office's role in the incidents was presented, as well as an overview of the Louisiana State Contingency Plan. It was noted that the lack of communications systems caused considerable difficulties for responders. It was concluded that responses to hurricanes can be made more effective by having all response communities incident command structure (ICS)-trained with a thorough knowledge of the National Response Plan as it relates to the National Contingency Plan. Ensuring that plans are operational, having clear lines of authority on all hurricane-related issues, and having a robust communications plan were recommended, as well as the ability to respond without communications.

  1. From the incident command center oil spills from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guidry, R.J.

    2006-01-01

    Approximately 30.2 million litres of oil were discharged during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. A total of 230 incidents were reported to the state's spill response community, including ruptured pipelines, damaged and moved storage tanks, refineries, and sunken vessels. By January 2006, industry had reported the recovery of 14.7 million litres of oil. After Hurricane Rita, a further 234 off- and onshore incidents were reported. This paper presented a chronology from August 26 2005 through to June 2006 of clean-up activities for both hurricanes, with specific reference to logistic and communications issues associated with working in environments that are difficult to access due to damaged transportation infrastructure. An outline of the Louisiana Oil Spill Coordinator's Office's role in the incidents was presented, as well as an overview of the Louisiana State Contingency Plan. It was noted that the lack of communications systems caused considerable difficulties for responders. It was concluded that responses to hurricanes can be made more effective by having all response communities incident command structure (ICS)-trained with a thorough knowledge of the National Response Plan as it relates to the National Contingency Plan. Ensuring that plans are operational, having clear lines of authority on all hurricane-related issues, and having a robust communications plan were recommended, as well as the ability to respond without communications

  2. Generic Hurricane Extreme Seas State

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wehmeyer, Christof; Skourup, Jesper; Frigaard, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Extreme sea states, which the IEC 61400-3 (2008) standard requires for the ultimate limit state (ULS) analysis of offshore wind turbines are derived to establish the design basis for the conceptual layout of deep water floating offshore wind turbine foundations in hurricane affected areas....... Especially in the initial phase of floating foundation concept development, site specific metocean data are usually not available. As the areas of interest are furthermore not covered by any design standard, in terms of design sea states, generic and in engineering terms applicable environmental background...... data is required for a type specific conceptual design. ULS conditions for different return periods are developed, which can subsequently be applied in siteindependent analysis and conceptual design. Recordings provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), of hurricanes along...

  3. 33 CFR 203.49 - Rehabilitation of Hurricane and Shore Protection Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Protection Projects. (a) Authority. The Chief of Engineers is authorized to rehabilitate any Federally authorized hurricane or shore protection structure damaged or destroyed by wind, wave, or water action of an... (exclusive of dredge mobilization and demobilization costs) exceeds $1 million and is greater than two...

  4. Integrating UAV and orbital remote sensing for spatiotemporal assessment of coastal vegetation health following hurricane events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardes, S.; Madden, M.; Jordan, T.; Knight, A.; Aragon, A.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane impacts often include the total or partial removal of vegetation due to strong winds (e.g., uprooted trees and broken trunks and limbs). Those impacts can usually be quickly assessed following hurricanes, by using established field and remote sensing methods. Conversely, impacts on vegetation health may present challenges for identification and assessment, as they are disconnected in time from the hurricane event and may be less evident. For instance, hurricanes may promote drastic increases in salinity of water available to roots and may increase exposure of aerial parts to salt spray. Derived stress conditions can negatively impact biological processes and may lead to plant decline and death. Large areas along the coast of the United States have been affected by hurricanes and show such damage (vegetation browning). Those areas may continue to be impacted, as climate projections indicate that hurricanes may become more frequent and intense, resulting from the warming of ocean waters. This work uses remote sensing tools and techniques to record and assess impacts resulting from recent hurricanes at Sapelo Island, a barrier island off the coast of the State of Georgia, United States. Analyses included change detection at the island using time series of co-registered Sentinel 2 and Landsat images. A field campaign was conducted in September 2017, which included flying three UAVs over the island and collecting high-overlap 20-megapixel RGB images at two spatial resolutions (1 and 2 inches/pixel). A five-band MicaSense RedEdge camera, a downwelling radiation sensor and calibration panel were used to collect calibrated multispectral images of multiple vegetation types, including healthy vegetation and vegetation affected by browning. Drone images covering over 600 acres were then analyzed for vegetation status and damage, with emphasis to vegetation removal and browning resulting from salinity alterations and salt spray. Results from images acquired by drones

  5. Lessons Learnt From Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akundi, Murty

    2008-03-01

    Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and its suburbs on Monday August 29^th, 2005. The previous Friday morning, August 26, the National Hurricane Center indicated that Katrina was a Category One Hurricane, which was expected to hit Florida. By Friday afternoon, it had changed its course, and neither the city nor Xavier University was prepared for this unexpected turn in the hurricane's path. The university had 6 to 7 ft of water in every building and Xavier was closed for four months. Students and university personnel that were unable to evacuate were trapped on campus and transportation out of the city became a logistical nightmare. Email and all electronic systems were unavailable for at least a month, and all cell phones with a 504 area code stopped working. For the Department, the most immediate problem was locating faculty and students. Xavier created a list of faculty and their new email addresses and began coordinating with faculty. Xavier created a web page with advice for students, and the chair of the department created a separate blog with contact information for students. The early lack of a clear method of communication made worse the confusion and dismay among the faculty on such issues as when the university would reopen, whether the faculty would be retained, whether they should seek temporary (or permanent) employment elsewhere, etc. With the vision and determination of President Dr. Francis, Xavier was able to reopen the university in January and ran a full academic year from January through August. Since Katrina, the university has asked every department and unit to prepare emergency preparedness plans. Each department has been asked to collect e-mail addresses (non-Xavier), cell phone numbers and out of town contact information. The University also established an emergency website to communicate. All faculty have been asked to prepare to teach classes electronically via Black board or the web. Questions remain about the longer term issues of

  6. Hurricane Havoc - Mapping the Mayhem with NOAA's National Water Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggett, G. R.; Stone, M.

    2017-12-01

    With Hurricane Irene as an example, this work demonstrates the versatility of NOAA's new National Water Model (NWM) as a tool for analyzing hydrologic hazards before, during, and after events. Hurricane Irene made landfall on the coast of North Carolina on August 27, 2011, and made its way up the East Coast over the next 3 days. This storm caused widespread flooding across the Northeast, where rain totals over 20" and wind speeds of 100mph were recorded, causing loss of life and significant damage to infrastructure. Large portions of New York and Vermont were some of the hardest hit areas. This poster will present a suite of post-processed products, derived from NWM output, that are currently being developed at NOAA's National Water Center in Tuscaloosa, AL. The National Water Model is allowing NOAA to expand its water prediction services to the approximately 2.7 million stream reaches across the U.S. The series of forecasted and real-time analysis products presented in this poster will demonstrate the strides NOAA is taking to increase preparedness and aid response to severe hydrologic events, like Hurricane Irene.

  7. Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Assess Impacts of Hurricanes Andrew and Irma on Mangrove Forests in Biscayne Bay National Park, FL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, A.; Weber, S.; Remillard, C.; Escobar Pardo, M. L.; Hashemi Tonekaboni, N.; Cameron, C.; Linton, S.; Rickless, D.; Rivero, R.; Madden, M.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, pose major threats to coastal communities around the globe. However, mangrove forests along coastlines act as barriers and subdue the impacts associated with these catastrophic events. The Biscayne Bay National Park mangrove forest located near the city of Miami Beach was recently affected by the category four hurricane Irma in September of 2017. This study analyzed the impact of Hurricane Irma on Biscayne Bay National Park mangroves. Several remote sensing datasets including Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel 2-Multi Spectral Imager (MSI), PlanetScope, and aerial imagery were utilized to assess pre-and post-hurricane conditions. The high-resolution aerial imagery and PlanetScope data were used to map damaged areas within the national park. Additionally, Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI data were utilized to estimate changes in biophysical parameters, including gross primary productivity (GPP), before and after Hurricane Irma. This project also examined damages associated with Hurricane Andrew (1992) using historical Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data. These results were compared to GPP estimates following Hurricane Irma and suggested that Hurricane Andrew's impact was greater than that of Irma in Biscayne Bay National Park. The results of this study will help to enhance the mangrove health monitoring and shoreline management programs led by officials at the City of Miami Beach Public Works Department.

  8. Risk assessment of cadmium-contaminated soil on plant DNA damage using RAPD and physiological indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Wan; Yang, Y.S.; Li, P.J.; Zhou, Q.X.; Xie, L.J.; Han, Y.P.

    2009-01-01

    Impact assessment of contaminants in soil is an important issue in environmental quality study and remediation of contaminated land. A random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) 'fingerprinting' technique was exhibited to detect genotoxin-induced DNA damage of plants from heavy metal contaminated soil. This study compared the effects occurring at molecular and population levels in barley seedlings exposed to cadmium (Cd) contamination in soil. Results indicate that reduction of root growth and increase of total soluble protein level in the root tips of barley seedlings occurred with the ascending Cd concentrations. For the RAPD analyses, nine 10-base pair (bp) random RAPD primers (decamers) with 60-70% GC content were found to produce unique polymorphic band patterns and subsequently were used to produce a total of 129 RAPD fragments of 144-2639 base pair in molecular size in the root tips of control seedlings. Results produced from nine primers indicate that the changes occurring in RAPD profiles of the root tips following Cd treatment included alterations in band intensity as well as gain or loss of bands compared with the control seedlings. New amplified fragments at molecular size from approximately 154 to 2245 bp appeared almost for 10, 20 and 40 mg L -1 Cd with 9 primers (one-four new polymerase chain reaction, (PCR) products), and the number of missing bands enhanced with the increasing Cd concentration for nine primers. These results suggest that genomic template stability reflecting changes in RAPD profiles were significantly affected and it compared favourably with the traditional indices such as growth and soluble protein level at the above Cd concentrations. The DNA polymorphisms detected by RAPD can be applied as a suitable biomarker assay for detection of the genotoxic effects of Cd stress in soil on plants. As a tool in risk assessment the RAPD assay can be used in characterisation of Cd hazard in soil

  9. Hurricane Gustav: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Guy, Kristy K.; Serafin, Katherine A.

    2009-01-01

    Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, currents, and wave field. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and surface waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is also a significant aspect of the coastal change observed during extreme storms. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes) strives to provide hazard information to those concerned about the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure morphological changes associated with Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana, on September 1, 2008. Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography, airborne topographic surveys, and ground-based topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and

  10. Hurricane Ike: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara S.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Serafin, Katherine A.

    2009-01-01

    Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with the storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, and wave climate. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and large waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to those processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is equally important to the coastal change observed during extreme storm events. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes), strives to provide hazard information to those interested in the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure coastal changes associated with Hurricane Ike, which made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on September 13, 2008. Methods of observation included aerial photography and airborne topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline

  11. Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

    2013-01-01

    A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage mecha......- and without monitoring. Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is used to estimate the probabilities and the tower of an onshore NREL 5MW wind turbine is given as a calculation case......A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage...

  12. The value of wetlands in protecting southeast louisiana from hurricane storm surges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbier, Edward B; Georgiou, Ioannis Y; Enchelmeyer, Brian; Reed, Denise J

    2013-01-01

    The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.

  13. Hurricane impacts on US forest carbon sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven G. McNulty

    2002-01-01

    Recent focus has been given to US forests as a sink for increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Current estimates of US Forest carbon sequestration average approximately 20 Tg (i.e. 1012 g) year. However, predictions of forest carbon sequestration often do not include the influence of hurricanes on forest carbon storage. Intense hurricanes...

  14. An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1-Decision Support System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Rachel A; Nozick, Linda K; Wachtendorf, Tricia; Blanton, Brian; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randall L; DeYoung, Sarah; Dresback, Kendra M; Yi, Wenqi; Yang, Kun; Leonardo, Nicholas

    2018-03-30

    This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. SPATIAL-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF OPENSTREETMAP DATA AFTER NATURAL DISASTERS: A CASE STUDY OF HAITI UNDER HURRICANE MATTHEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Xu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Volunteered geographic information (VGI has been widely adopted as an alternative for authoritative geographic information in disaster management considering its up-to-date data. OpenStreetMap, in particular, is now aiming at crisis mapping for humanitarian purpose. This paper illustrated that natural disaster played an essential role in updating OpenStreetMap data after Haiti was hit by Hurricane Matthew in October, 2016. Spatial-temporal analysis of updated OSM data was conducted in this paper. Correlation of features was also studied to figure out whether updates of data were coincidence or the results of the hurricane. Spatial pattern matched the damaged areas and temporal changes fitted the time when disaster occurred. High level of correlation values of features were recorded when hurricane occurred, suggesting that updates in data were led by the hurricane.

  16. Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Openstreetmap Data after Natural Disasters: a Case Study of Haiti Under Hurricane Matthew

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, J.; Li, L.; Zhou, Q.

    2017-09-01

    Volunteered geographic information (VGI) has been widely adopted as an alternative for authoritative geographic information in disaster management considering its up-to-date data. OpenStreetMap, in particular, is now aiming at crisis mapping for humanitarian purpose. This paper illustrated that natural disaster played an essential role in updating OpenStreetMap data after Haiti was hit by Hurricane Matthew in October, 2016. Spatial-temporal analysis of updated OSM data was conducted in this paper. Correlation of features was also studied to figure out whether updates of data were coincidence or the results of the hurricane. Spatial pattern matched the damaged areas and temporal changes fitted the time when disaster occurred. High level of correlation values of features were recorded when hurricane occurred, suggesting that updates in data were led by the hurricane.

  17. Metal concentrations in schoolyard soils from New Orleans, Louisiana before and after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presley, Steven M; Abel, Michael T; Austin, Galen P; Rainwater, Thomas R; Brown, Ray W; McDaniel, Les N; Marsland, Eric J; Fornerette, Ashley M; Dillard, Melvin L; Rigdon, Richard W; Kendall, Ronald J; Cobb, George P

    2010-06-01

    The long-term environmental impact and potential human health hazards resulting from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita throughout much of the United States Gulf Coast, particularly in the New Orleans, Louisiana, USA area are still being assessed and realized after more than four years. Numerous government agencies and private entities have collected environmental samples from throughout New Orleans and found concentrations of contaminants exceeding human health screening values as established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for air, soil, and water. To further assess risks of exposure to toxic concentrations of soil contaminants for citizens, particularly children, returning to live in New Orleans following the storms, soils collected from schoolyards prior to Hurricane Katrina and after Hurricane Rita were screened for 26 metals. Concentrations exceeding USEPA Regional Screening Levels (USEPA-RSL), total exposure, non-cancer endpoints, for residential soils for arsenic (As), iron (Fe), lead (Pb), and thallium (Tl) were detected in soil samples collected from schoolyards both prior to Hurricane Katrina and after Hurricane Rita. Approximately 43% (9/21) of schoolyard soils collected prior to Hurricane Katrina contained Pb concentrations greater than 400mgkg(-1), and samples from four schoolyards collected after Hurricane Rita contained detectable Pb concentrations, with two exceeding 1700mgkg(-1). Thallium concentrations exceeded USEPA-RSL in samples collected from five schoolyards after Hurricane Rita. Based upon these findings and the known increased susceptibility of children to the effects of Pb exposure, a more extensive assessment of the soils in schoolyards, public parks and other residential areas of New Orleans for metal contaminants is warranted. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Genesis of tornadoes associated with hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentry, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    The climatological history of hurricane-tornadoes is brought up to date through 1982. Most of the tornadoes either form near the center of the hurricane, from the outer edge of the eyewall outward, or in an area between north and east-southeast of the hurricane center. The blackbody temperatures of the cloud tops which were analyzed for several hurricane-tornadoes that formed in the years 1974, 1975, and 1979, did not furnish strong precursor signals of tornado formation, but followed one of two patterns: either the temperatures were very low, or the tornado formed in areas of strong temperature gradients. Tornadoes with tropical cyclones most frequently occur at 1200-1800 LST, and although most are relatively weak, they can reach the F3 intensity level. Most form in association with the outer rainbands of the hurricane.

  19. Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

    2011-12-01

    In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

  20. Analysis of storm-tide impacts from Hurricane Sandy in New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Christopher E.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Hearn, Paul P.; Rahav, Ami N.; Behrens, Riley; Finkelstein, Jason S.; Monti, Jack; Simonson, Amy E.

    2015-07-21

    The hybrid cyclone-nor’easter known as Hurricane Sandy affected the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States during October 28-30, 2012, causing extensive coastal flooding. Prior to storm landfall, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network from Virginia to Maine to record the storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Sandy. This sensor network augmented USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent monitoring sites that also documented storm surge. Continuous data from these networks were supplemented by an extensive post-storm high-water-mark (HWM) flagging and surveying campaign. The sensor deployment and HWM campaign were conducted under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The need for hydrologic interpretation of monitoring data to assist in flood-damage analysis and future flood mitigation prompted the current analysis of Hurricane Sandy by the USGS under this FEMA mission assignment.

  1. Short-term impacts of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on tropical stream chemistry as measured by in-situ sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, W. H.; Potter, J.; López-Lloreda, C.

    2017-12-01

    High intensity hurricanes have been shown to alter topical forest productivity and stream chemistry for years to decades in the montane rain forest of Puerto Rico, but much less is known about the immediate ecosystem response to these extreme events. Here we report the short-term impacts of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on the chemistry of Quebrada Sonadora immediately before and after the storms. We place the results from our 15-minute sensor record in the context of long-term weekly sampling that spans 34 years and includes two earlier major hurricanes (Hugo and Geoges). As expected, turbidity during Maria was the highest in our sensor record (> 1000 NTU). Contrary to our expectations, we found that solute-flow behavior changed with the advent of the storms. Specific conductance showed a dilution response to flow before the storms, but then changed to an enrichment response during and after Maria. This switch in system behavior is likely due to the deposition of marine aerosols during the hurricane. Nitrate concentrations showed very little response to discharge prior to the recent hurricanes, but large increase in concentration occurred at high flow both during and after the hurricanes. Baseflow nitrate concentrations decreased immediately after Irma to below the long-term background concentrations, which we attribute to the immobilization of N on organic debris choking the stream channel. Within three weeks of Hurricane Maria, baseflow nitrate concentrations began to rise. This is likely due to mineralization of N from decomposing canopy vegetation on the forest floor, and reduced N uptake by hurricane-damaged vegetation. The high frequency sensors are providing new insights into the response of this ecosystem in the days and weeks following two major disturbance events. The flipping of nitrate response to storms, from source limited to transport limited, suggests that these two severe hurricanes have fundamentally altered the nitrogen cycle at the site in ways

  2. Vietnamese Hurricane Response Fact Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Các tờ dữ kiện được cung cấp nơi đây mô tả vai trò của EPA trong việc đáp ứng với bão và cách các chương trình cụ thể cung cấp sự hỗ trợ. The Vietnamese fact sheets provided here describe EPA's role in a hurricane response.

  3. The impact of climate change on catastrophe risk models : implications for catastrophe risk markets in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Seo, John; Mahul, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, i...

  4. 48 CFR 1852.236-73 - Hurricane plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Hurricane plan. 1852.236-73... Hurricane plan. As prescribed in 1836.570(c), insert the following clause: Hurricane Plan (DEC 1988) In the event of a hurricane warning, the Contractor shall— (a) Inspect the area and place all materials...

  5. An Examination of Hurricane Emergency Preparedness Planning at Institutions of Higher Learning of the Gulf South Region Post Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura, Caterina Gulli

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine hurricane emergency preparedness planning at institutions of higher learning of the Gulf South region following Hurricane Katrina. The problem addressed the impact of Hurricane Katrina on decision-making and policy planning processes. The focus was on individuals that administer the hurricane emergency…

  6. Observations of Building Performance under Combined Wind and Surge Loading from Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardo, F.; Roueche, D. B.; Krupar, R. J.; Smith, D. J.; Soto, M. G.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey struck the Texas coastline on August 25, 2017, as a Category 4 hurricane - the first major hurricane to reach the US in twelve years. Wind gusts over 130 mph and storm surge as high as 12.5 ft caused widespread damage to buildings and critical infrastructure in coastal communities including Rockport, Fulton, Port Aransas and Aransas Pass. This study presents the methodology and preliminary observations of a coordinated response effort to document residential building performance under wind and storm surge loading. Over a twelve day survey period the study team assessed the performance of more than 1,000 individual, geo-located residential buildings. Assessments were logged via a smartphone application to facilitate rapid collection and collation of geotagged photographs, building attributes and structural details, and structural damage observations. Detailed assessments were also made of hazard intensity, specifically storm surge heights and both wind speed and direction indicators. Preliminary observations and findings will be presented, showing strong gradients in damage between inland and coastal regions of the affected areas that may be due in part to enhanced individual loading effects of wind and storm surge and potentially joint-hazard loading effects. Contributing factors to the many cases of disproportionate damage observed in close proximity will also be discussed. Ongoing efforts to relate building damage to near-surface hazard measurements (e.g., radar, anemometry) in close proximity will also be described.

  7. Oxidative DNA damage in bone marrow cells of patients with low-risk myelodysplastic syndrome

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Novotná, Božena; Bagryantseva, Yana; Šišková, M.; Neuwirtová, R.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 2 (2009), s. 340-343 ISSN 0145-2126 R&D Projects: GA MZd NR8265 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50390512 Keywords : Myelodysplastic syndrome * Refractory anemia * Oxidative DNA damage Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 2.358, year: 2009

  8. [Sound levels of the Piezosurgery. Risk of permanent damage to hearing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blakenburg, J.J.; Both, C.J.; Borstlap, W.A.; Damme, P.A. van

    2007-01-01

    In the past, research has regularly been carried out concerning the sound levels of various drilling devices and the impact these have on those who regularly use these devices. The present research is concerned with the possible permanent damage to hearing which can occur during the use of a newly

  9. Automatic urban debris zone extraction from post-hurricane very high-resolution satellite and aerial imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shasha Jiang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Automated remote sensing methods have not gained widespread usage for damage assessment after hurricane events, especially for low-rise buildings, such as individual houses and small businesses. Hurricane wind, storm surge with waves, and inland flooding have unique damage signatures, further complicating the development of robust automated assessment methodologies. As a step toward realizing automated damage assessment for multi-hazard hurricane events, this paper presents a mono-temporal image classification methodology that quickly and accurately differentiates urban debris from non-debris areas using post-event images. Three classification approaches are presented: spectral, textural, and combined spectral–textural. The methodology is demonstrated for Gulfport, Mississippi, using IKONOS panchromatic satellite and NOAA aerial colour imagery collected after 2005 Hurricane Katrina. The results show that multivariate texture information significantly improves debris class detection performance by decreasing the confusion between debris and other land cover types, and the extracted debris zone accurately captures debris distribution. Additionally, the extracted debris boundary is approximately equivalent regardless of imagery type, demonstrating the flexibility and robustness of the debris mapping methodology. While the test case presents results for hurricane hazards, the proposed methodology is generally developed and expected to be effective in delineating debris zones for other natural hazards, including tsunamis, tornadoes, and earthquakes.

  10. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  11. Effect of severe hurricanes on biorock coral reef restoration projects in Grand Turk, Turks and Caicos Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Lucy; Perez, Fernando; Hibbert, Marlon; Clerveaux, Luc; Johnson, Jodi; Goreau, Thomas J

    2010-10-01

    Artificial reefs are often discouraged in shallow waters over concerns of storm damage to structures and surrounding habitat. Biorock coral reef restoration projects were initiated in waters around 5 m deep in Grand Turk, at Oasis (October 2006) and at Governor's Beach (November 2007). Hemi-cylindrical steel modules, 6m long were used, four modules at Oasis and six at Governor's Beach. Each project has over 1200 corals transplanted from sites with high sedimentation damage, and are regularly monitored for coral growth, mortality and fish populations. Corals show immediate growth over wires used to attach corals. Growth has been measured from photographs using a software program and is faster at Governor's Beach. After hurricanes Hanna and Ike (September 2008) the Governor's Beach structure was fully standing since the waves passed straight through with little damage, the Oasis structures which were tie-wired rather than welded had one module collapse (since been replaced with a new, welded structure). Hurricane Ike was the strongest hurricane on record to hit Grand Turk. Most cables were replaced following the hurricanes due to damage from debris and high wave action. The projects lost about a third of the corals due to hurricanes. Most of those lost had only been wired a few days before and had not yet attached themselves firmly. These projects have regenerated corals and fish populations in areas of barren sand or bedrock and are now attractive to snorkelers. High coral survival and low structural damage after hurricanes indicate that Biorock reef restoration can be effective in storm-impacted areas.

  12. Effect of severe hurricanes on Biorock Coral Reef Restoration Projects in Grand Turk, Turks and Caicos Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucy Wells

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Artificial reefs are often discouraged in shallow waters over concerns of storm damage to structures and surrounding habitat. Biorock coral reef restoration projects were initiated in waters around 5m deep in Grand Turk, at Oasis (October 2006 and at Governor’s Beach (November 2007. Hemi-cylindrical steel modules, 6m long were used, four modules at Oasis and six at Governor’s Beach. Each project has over 1200 corals transplanted from sites with high sedimentation damage, and are regularly monitored for coral growth, mortality and fish populations. Corals show immediate growth over wires used to attach corals. Growth has been measured from photographs using a software program and is faster at Governor’s Beach. After hurricanes Hanna and Ike (September 2008 the Governor’s Beach structure was fully standing since the waves passed straight through with little damage, the Oasis structures which were tie-wired rather than welded had one module collapse (since been replaced with a new, welded structure. Hurricane Ike was the strongest hurricane on record to hit Grand Turk. Most cables were replaced following the hurricanes due to damage from debris and high wave action. The projects lost about a third of the corals due to hurricanes. Most of those lost had only been wired a few days before and had not yet attached themselves firmly. These projects have regenerated corals and fish populations in areas of barren sand or bedrock and are now attractive to snorkelers. High coral survival and low structural damage after hurricanes indicate that Biorock reef restoration can be effective in storm-impacted areas. Rev. Biol. Trop. 58 (Suppl. 3: 141-149. Epub 2010 October 01.

  13. Towards a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Based Approach for Safety Risk Analysis of Tunnel-Induced Pipeline Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Qin, Yawei; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J; Liu, Wenli

    2016-02-01

    Tunneling excavation is bound to produce significant disturbances to surrounding environments, and the tunnel-induced damage to adjacent underground buried pipelines is of considerable importance for geotechnical practice. A fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBNs) based approach for safety risk analysis is developed in this article with detailed step-by-step procedures, consisting of risk mechanism analysis, the FBN model establishment, fuzzification, FBN-based inference, defuzzification, and decision making. In accordance with the failure mechanism analysis, a tunnel-induced pipeline damage model is proposed to reveal the cause-effect relationships between the pipeline damage and its influential variables. In terms of the fuzzification process, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to reveal the reliability of the data when determining the fuzzy probability of occurrence of basic events, with both the judgment ability level and the subjectivity reliability level taken into account. By means of the fuzzy Bayesian inference, the approach proposed in this article is capable of calculating the probability distribution of potential safety risks and identifying the most likely potential causes of accidents under both prior knowledge and given evidence circumstances. A case concerning the safety analysis of underground buried pipelines adjacent to the construction of the Wuhan Yangtze River Tunnel is presented. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed FBN approach and its application potential. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety assurance and management in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex project environment. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Estimating cellular network performance during hurricanes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booker, Graham; Torres, Jacob; Guikema, Seth; Sprintson, Alex; Brumbelow, Kelly

    2010-01-01

    Cellular networks serve a critical role during and immediately after a hurricane, allowing citizens to contact emergency services when land-line communication is lost and serving as a backup communication channel for emergency responders. However, due to their ubiquitous deployment and limited design for extreme loading events, basic network elements, such as cellular towers and antennas are prone to failures during adverse weather conditions such as hurricanes. Accordingly, a systematic and computationally feasible approach is required for assessing and improving the reliability of cellular networks during hurricanes. In this paper we develop a new multi-disciplinary approach to efficiently and accurately assess cellular network reliability during hurricanes. We show how the performance of a cellular network during and immediately after future hurricanes can be estimated based on a combination of hurricane wind field models, structural reliability analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and cellular network models and simulation tools. We then demonstrate the use of this approach for assessing the improvement in system reliability that can be achieved with discrete topological changes in the system. Our results suggest that adding redundancy, particularly through a mesh topology or through the addition of an optical fiber ring around the perimeter of the system can be an effective way to significantly increase the reliability of some cellular systems during hurricanes.

  15. Geologic hazards in the region of the Hurricane fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, W.R.

    1997-01-01

    Complex geology and variable topography along the 250-kilometer-long Hurricane fault in northwestern Arizona and southwestern Utah combine to create natural conditions that can present a potential danger to life and property. Geologic hazards are of particular concern in southwestern Utah, where the St. George Basin and Interstate-15 corridor north to Cedar City are one of Utah's fastest growing areas. Lying directly west of the Hurricane fault and within the Basin and Range - Colorado Plateau transition zone, this region exhibits geologic characteristics of both physiographic provinces. Long, potentially active, normal-slip faults displace a generally continuous stratigraphic section of mostly east-dipping late Paleozoic to Cretaceous sedimentary rocks unconformably overlain by Tertiary to Holocene sedimentary and igneous rocks and unconsolidated basin-fill deposits. Geologic hazards (exclusive of earthquake hazards) of principal concern in the region include problem soil and rock, landslides, shallow ground water, and flooding. Geologic materials susceptible to volumetric change, collapse, and subsidence in southwestern Utah include; expansive soil and rock, collapse-prone soil, gypsum and gypsiferous soil, soluble carbonate rocks, and soil and rock subject to piping and other ground collapse. Expansive soil and rock are widespread throughout the region. The Petrified Forest Member of the Chinle Formation is especially prone to large volume changes with variations in moisture content. Collapse-prone soils are common in areas of Cedar City underlain by alluvial-fan material derived from the Moenkopi and Chinle Formations in the nearby Hurricane Cliffs. Gypsiferous soil and rock are subject to dissolution which can damage foundations and create sinkholes. The principal formations in the region affected by dissolution of carbonate are the Kaibab and Toroweap Formations; both formations have developed sinkholes where crossed by perennial streams. Soil piping is

  16. Recovery from PTSD following Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Katie A; Berglund, Patricia; Gruber, Michael J; Kessler, Ronald C; Sampson, Nancy A; Zaslavsky, Alan M

    2011-06-01

    We examined patterns and correlates of speed of recovery of estimated posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among people who developed PTSD in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. A probability sample of prehurricane residents of areas affected by Hurricane Katrina was administered a telephone survey 7-19 months following the hurricane and again 24-27 months posthurricane. The baseline survey assessed PTSD using a validated screening scale and assessed a number of hypothesized predictors of PTSD recovery that included sociodemographics, prehurricane history of psychopathology, hurricane-related stressors, social support, and social competence. Exposure to posthurricane stressors and course of estimated PTSD were assessed in a follow-up interview. An estimated 17.1% of respondents had a history of estimated hurricane-related PTSD at baseline and 29.2% by the follow-up survey. Of the respondents who developed estimated hurricane-related PTSD, 39.0% recovered by the time of the follow-up survey with a mean duration of 16.5 months. Predictors of slow recovery included exposure to a life-threatening situation, hurricane-related housing adversity, and high income. Other sociodemographics, history of psychopathology, social support, social competence, and posthurricane stressors were unrelated to recovery from estimated PTSD. The majority of adults who developed estimated PTSD after Hurricane Katrina did not recover within 18-27 months. Delayed onset was common. Findings document the importance of initial trauma exposure severity in predicting course of illness and suggest that pre- and posttrauma factors typically associated with course of estimated PTSD did not influence recovery following Hurricane Katrina. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  17. Impact of Hurricane Andrew on FPL generation facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brannen, W.F.; Adams, R.L.

    1993-01-01

    In the pre-dawn hours of August 25, 1992, Hurricane Andrew made landfall in southern Dade County, Florida. The storm approached directly from the east and moved rapidly across the State and into the Gulf of Mexico. Andrew's intense winds caused unprecedented devastation to structures and facilities in its path. Not surprisingly, Florida Power and Light's (FPL) generation, transmission and distribution facilities in south Florida also suffered extensive damage. Two of FPL's electrical generating sites were located in the direct path of the storm and received its full brunt. This paper presents a review of the damage sustained by those plants, an overview of the unique recovery challenges encountered and a summary of the lessons learned from this experience

  18. Knowledge-Based Energy Damage Model for Evaluating Industrialised Building Systems (IBS Occupational Health and Safety (OHS Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abas Nor Haslinda

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia’s construction industry has been long considered hazardous, owing to its poor health and safety record. It is proposed that one of the ways to improve safety and health in the construction industry is through the implementation of ‘off-site’ systems, commonly termed ‘industrialised building systems (IBS’ in Malaysia. This is deemed safer based on the risk concept of reduced exposure, brought about by the reduction in onsite workers; however, no method yet exists for determining the relative safety of various construction methods, including IBS. This study presents a comparative evaluation of the occupational health and safety (OHS risk presented by different construction approaches, namely IBS and traditional methods. The evaluation involved developing a model based on the concept of ‘argumentation theory’, which helps construction designers integrate the management of OHS risk into the design process. In addition, an ‘energy damage model’ was used as an underpinning framework. Development of the model was achieved through three phases, namely Phase I – knowledge acquisitaion, Phase II – argument trees mapping, and Phase III – validation of the model. The research revealed that different approaches/methods of construction projects carried a different level of energy damage, depending on how the activities were carried out. A study of the way in which the risks change from one construction process to another shows that there is a difference in the profile of OHS risk between IBS construction and traditional methods.Therefore, whether the option is an IBS or traditional approach, the fundamental idea of the model is to motivate construction designers or decision-makers to address safety in the design process and encourage them to examine carefully the probable OHS risk variables surrounding an action, thus preventing accidents in construction.

  19. Satellite sar detection of hurricane helene (2006)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ju, Lian; Cheng, Yongcun; Xu, Qing

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, the wind structure of hurricane Helene (2006) over the Atlantic Ocean is investigated from a C-band RADARSAT-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image acquired on 20 September 2006. First, the characteristics, e.g., the center, scale and area of the hurricane eye (HE) are determined. ...... observations from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) on NOAA P3 aircraft. All the results show the capability of hurricane monitoring by satellite SAR. Copyright © 2013 by the International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE)....

  20. The Role of Peers in the Relation between Hurricane Exposure and Ataques de Nervios among Puerto Rican Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubens, Sonia L; Felix, Erika D; Vernberg, Eric M; Canino, Glorisa

    2014-11-01

    Although a relation between disaster exposure and ataques de nervios ( ataques ) has been established in adult samples, little is known about this among youth, including factors that may moderate this relation. This study examined the role of the peer context in the relation between exposure to Hurricane Georges and experiencing a past year and lifetime ataques among a representative community sample of 905 youth (N = 476 boys and 429 girls; ages 11-18) residing in Puerto Rico. Data were gathered from 1999-2000 in Puerto Rico, 12-27 months following Hurricane Georges. Logistic regression analyses found that peer violence significantly predicted experiencing an ataque in the past year. Hurricane exposure and peer violence were both significant predictors of a lifetime experience of an ataque . An interaction was found between hurricane exposure and peer violence, indicating that hurricane exposure was significantly related to a lifetime experience of an ataque among adolescents who do not report associating with violent peers. For participants reporting high levels of peer violence, hurricane exposure did not add additional risk for a lifetime experience of an ataque . Understanding the influence of peers in the relation between hurricane exposure and experiencing an ataque may assist in planning developmentally and culturally sensitive response plans.

  1. Quantification of Interbasin Transfers into the Addicks Reservoir during Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, A.; Juan, A.; Gori, A.; Maulsby, F.; Bedient, P. B.

    2017-12-01

    Between August 25 and 30, Hurricane Harvey dropped unprecedented rainfall over southeast Texas causing widespread flooding in the City of Houston. Water levels in the Addicks and Barker reservoirs, built in the 1940s to protect downtown Houston, exceeded previous records by approximately 2 meters. Concerns regarding structural integrity of the dams and damage to neighbourhoods in within the reservoir pool resulted in controlled releases into Buffalo Bayou, flooding an estimated 4,000 additional structures downstream of the dams. In 2016, during the Tax Day it became apparent that overflows from Cypress Creek in northern Harris County substantially contribute to water levels in Addicks. Prior to this event, little was known about the hydrodynamics of this overflow area or about the additional stress placed on Addicks and Barker reservoirs due to the volume of overflow. However, this information is critical for determining flood risk in Addicks Watershed, and ultimately Buffalo Bayou. In this study, we utilize the recently developed HEC-RAS 2D model the interbasin transfer that occurs between Cypress Creek Watershed and Addicks Reservoir to quantify the volume and rate at which water from Cypress enters the reservoir during extreme events. Ultimately, the results of this study will help inform the official hydrologic models used by HCFCD to determine reservoir operation during future storm events and better inform residents living in or above the reservoir pool about their potential flood risk.

  2. Common variants in mismatch repair genes associated with increased risk of sperm DNA damage and male infertility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Guixiang

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The mismatch repair (MMR pathway plays an important role in the maintenance of the genome integrity, meiotic recombination and gametogenesis. This study investigated whether genetic variations in MMR genes are associated with an increased risk of sperm DNA damage and male infertility. Methods We selected and genotyped 21 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in five MMR genes (MLH1, MLH3, PMS2, MSH4 and MSH5 using the SNPstream 12-plex platform in a case-control study of 1,292 idiopathic infertility patients and 480 fertile controls in a Chinese population. Sperm DNA damage levels were detected with the Tdt-mediated dUTP nick end labelling (TUNEL assay in 450 cases. Fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET and co-immunoprecipitation techniques were employed to determine the effects of functional variants. Results One intronic SNP in MLH1 (rs4647269 and two non-synonymous SNPs in PMS2 (rs1059060, Ser775Asn and MSH5 (rs2075789, Pro29Ser seem to be risk factors for the development of azoospermia or oligozoospermia. Meanwhile, we also identified a possible contribution of PMS2 rs1059060 to the risk of male infertility with normal sperm count. Among patients with normal sperm count, MLH1 rs4647269 and PMS2 rs1059060 were associated with increased sperm DNA damage. Functional analysis revealed that the PMS2 rs1059060 can affect the interactions between MLH1 and PMS2. Conclusions Our results provide evidence supporting the involvement of genetic polymorphisms in MMR genes in the aetiology of male infertility.

  3. THE RISK OF INJURY AND VEHICLE DAMAGE SEVERITY IN VEHICLE MISMATCHED SIDE IMPACT CRASHES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ediriweera DESAPRIYA

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available As occupant protection offered by new passenger vehicles has improved, there has been growing concern about the harm that some vehicle designs may inflict on occupants of other vehicles with which they collide. Preceding analyses of crash statistics have clearly demonstrated the incompatibility between passenger sedan cars (PS and pick-up trucks (PU involved in side impact crashes in British Columbia. A comparison of light truck and passenger car crashes in previous literature reveals that light truck vehicles inflict greater harm than passenger cars for a number of reasons including their greater weight, stiffer structure, and higher ride height. These features place occupants of passenger cars at a disadvantage should they be involved in a collision with a light truck vehicle. The injury risk for passenger sedan car occupants is greater than the risk for pick-up truck occupants in two-vehicle crashes (Odds Ratio (OR 1.87; 95% Confidence Interval (CI 1.38-2.52. In addition, the risk of vehicle damage severity was increased for passenger cars compared with pick-up trucks (write off vehicle-OR 5.35; 95% CI 3.75-7.63, severely damaged vehicles-OR 5.87; 95% CI 4.79–7.19, moderately damaged vehicles-OR 2.86; 95% CI 2.44–3.36. There is strong justification for injury prevention experts and policy makers to step up motor vehicle crash injury prevention advocacy by implementing evidence-based policies to reduce rates of injury as a result of passenger sedan cars and pick-up trucks involved in side impact crashes in the province of British Columbia.

  4. Risk assessment of maize damage by wireworms (Coleoptera: Elateridae) as the first step in implementing IPM and in reducing the environmental impact of soil insecticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlan, L; Contiero, B; Chiarini, F; Colauzzi, M; Sartori, E; Benvegnù, I; Fracasso, F; Giandon, P

    2017-01-01

    A survey of maize fields was conducted in northeast Italy from 1986 to 2014, resulting in a dataset of 1296 records including information on wireworm damage to maize, plant-attacking species, agronomic characteristics, landscape and climate. Three wireworm species, Agriotes brevis Candeze, A. sordidus Illiger and A. ustulatus Schäller, were identified as the dominant pest species in maize fields. Over the 29-year period surveyed, no yield reduction was observed when wireworm plant damage was below 15 % of the stand. A preliminary univariate analysis of risk assessment was applied to identify the main factors influencing the occurrence of damage. A multifactorial model was then applied by using the significant factors identified. This model allowed the research to highlight the strongest factors and to analyse how the main factors together influenced damage risk. The strongest factors were: A. brevis as prevalent damaging species, soil organic matter content >5 %, rotation including meadows and/or double crops, A. sordidus as prevalent damaging species, and surrounding landscape mainly meadows, uncultivated grass and double crops. The multifactorial model also showed how the simultaneous occurrence of two or more of the aforementioned risk factors can conspicuously increase the risk of wireworm damage to maize crops, while the probability of damage to a field with no-risk factors is always low (<1 %). These results make it possible to draw risk maps to identify low-risk and high-risk areas, a first step in implementing bespoke IPM procedures in an attempt to reduce the impact of soil insecticides significantly.

  5. Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and Practices Treatments That Work Screening and Assessment Psychological First Aid and SPR Core Curriculum on Childhood Trauma Trauma- ... Measure Reviews All Measure Reviews Usage and Glossary Psychological First Aid and SPR About PFA About SPR NCTSN Resources ...

  6. Cancer risk in humans predicted by increased levels of chromosomal aberrations in lymphocytes: Nordic study group on the health risk of chromosome damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagmar, L; Brøgger, A; Hansteen, I L

    1994-01-01

    Cytogenetic assays in peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL) have been used extensively to survey the exposure of humans to genotoxic agents. The conceptual basis for this has been the hypothesis that the extent of genetic damage in PBL reflects critical events for carcinogenic processes in target...... tissues. Until now, no follow-up studies have been performed to assess the predictive value of these methods for subsequent cancer risk. In an ongoing Nordic cohort study of cancer incidence, 3182 subjects were examined between 1970 and 1988 for chromosomal aberrations (CA), sister chromatid exchange.......0009) in CA strata with regard to subsequent cancer risk. The point estimates of the standardized incidence ratio in the three CA strata were 0.9, 0.7, and 2.1, respectively. Thus, an increased level of chromosome breakage appears to be a relevant biomarker of future cancer risk....

  7. Disaster imminent--Hurricane Hugo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guynn, J B

    1990-04-01

    Response to a disaster situation depends upon the type of circumstances presented. In situations where the disaster is the type that affects the hospital as well as a wide surrounding area directly, the hospital and pharmacy itself may be called upon to continue functioning for some period of time without outside assistance. The ability to function for prolonged periods of time requires the staff to focus on the job at hand and the administrative staff to provide security, compassion, and flexibility. Plans for a disaster of the nature of a hurricane require that attention be paid to staffing, medication inventories, supplies, and services being rendered. Recognition of the singular position occupied by a hospital in the community and the expectations of the local population require that hospitals and the pharmacy department have the ability to respond appropriately.

  8. Daily variation in natural disaster casualties: information flows, safety, and opportunity costs in tornado versus hurricane strikes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahran, Sammy; Tavani, Daniele; Weiler, Stephan

    2013-07-01

    Casualties from natural disasters may depend on the day of the week they strike. With data from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS), daily variation in hurricane and tornado casualties from 5,043 tornado and 2,455 hurricane time/place events is analyzed. Hurricane forecasts provide at-risk populations with considerable lead time. Such lead time allows strategic behavior in choosing protective measures under hurricane threat; opportunity costs in terms of lost income are higher during weekdays than during weekends. On the other hand, the lead time provided by tornadoes is near zero; hence tornados generate no opportunity costs. Tornado casualties are related to risk information flows, which are higher during workdays than during leisure periods, and are related to sheltering-in-place opportunities, which are better in permanent buildings like businesses and schools. Consistent with theoretical expectations, random effects negative binomial regression results indicate that tornado events occurring on the workdays of Monday through Thursday are significantly less lethal than tornados that occur on weekends. In direct contrast, and also consistent with theory, the expected count of hurricane casualties increases significantly with weekday occurrences. The policy implications of observed daily variation in tornado and hurricane events are considered. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. GRIP HURRICANE IMAGING RADIOMETER (HIRAD) V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The GRIP Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) V1 dataset contains measurements of brightness temperature taken at 4, 5, 6 and 6.6 GHz, as well as MERRA 2 m wind...

  10. Bottom Scour Observed Under Hurricane Ivan

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Teague, William J; Jarosz, Eva; Keen, Timothy R; Wang, David W; Hulbert, Mark S

    2006-01-01

    Observations that extensive bottom scour along the outer continental shelf under Hurricane Ivan resulted in the displacement of more than 100 million cubic meters of sediment from a 35x15 km region...

  11. Hurricane Irene Poster (August 27, 2011)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Irene poster. Color composite GOES image shows Irene moving through the North Carolina Outer Banks on August 27, 2011. Poster size is 36"x27"

  12. Spectral Growth of Hurricane Generated Seas

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Finlayson, William

    1997-01-01

    The characteristics of a growing sea during hurricanes are significantly different from those observed in ordinary storms since the source of energy generating waves is moving and the rate of change...

  13. Evacuation Shelters - MDC_HurricaneShelter

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — A label feature class of Miami-Dade County Hurricane Evacuation Shelters (HEC) including Special Need Evacuation Centers (SNEC) and Medical Management Facilities...

  14. Tsunamis and Hurricanes A Mathematical Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Cap, Ferdinand

    2006-01-01

    Tsunamis and hurricanes have had a devastating impact on the population living near the coast during the year 2005. The calculation of the power and intensity of tsunamis and hurricanes are of great importance not only for engineers and meteorologists but also for governments and insurance companies. This book presents new research on the mathematical description of tsunamis and hurricanes. A combination of old and new approaches allows to derive a nonlinear partial differential equation of fifth order describing the steepening up and the propagation of tsunamis. The description includes dissipative terms and does not contain singularities or two valued functions. The equivalence principle of solutions of nonlinear large gas dynamics waves and of solutions of water wave equations will be used. An extension of the continuity equation by a source term due to evaporation rates of salt seawater will help to understand hurricanes. Detailed formula, tables and results of the calculations are given.

  15. Hurricane Katrina - Murphy Oil Spill Boundary

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  16. Spatial grids for hurricane climate research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elsner, James B.; Hodges, Robert E.; Jagger, Thomas H. [Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2012-07-15

    The authors demonstrate a spatial framework for studying hurricane climatology. The framework consists of a spatial tessellation of the hurricane basin using equal-area hexagons. The hexagons are efficient at covering hurricane tracks and provide a scaffolding to combine attribute data from tropical cyclones with spatial climate data. The framework's utility is demonstrated using examples from recent hurricane seasons. Seasons that have similar tracks are quantitatively assessed and grouped. Regional cyclone frequency and intensity variations are mapped. A geographically-weighted regression of cyclone intensity on sea-surface temperature emphasizes the importance of a warm ocean in the intensification of cyclones over regions where the heat content is greatest. The largest differences between model predictions and observations occur near the coast. The authors suggest the framework is ideally suited for comparing tropical cyclones generated from different numerical simulations. (orig.)

  17. Isentropic Analysis of a Simulated Hurricane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mrowiec, Agnieszka A.; Pauluis, Olivier; Zhang, Fuqing

    2016-01-01

    Hurricanes, like many other atmospheric flows, are associated with turbulent motions over a wide range of scales. Here the authors adapt a new technique based on the isentropic analysis of convective motions to study the thermodynamic structure of the overturning circulation in hurricane simulations. This approach separates the vertical mass transport in terms of the equivalent potential temperature of air parcels. In doing so, one separates the rising air parcels at high entropy from the subsiding air at low entropy. This technique filters out oscillatory motions associated with gravity waves and separates convective overturning from the secondary circulation. This approach is applied here to study the flow of an idealized hurricane simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The isentropic circulation for a hurricane exhibits similar characteristics to that of moist convection, with a maximum mass transport near the surface associated with a shallow convection and entrainment. There are also important differences. For instance, ascent in the eyewall can be readily identified in the isentropic analysis as an upward mass flux of air with unusually high equivalent potential temperature. The isentropic circulation is further compared here to the Eulerian secondary circulation of the simulated hurricane to show that the mass transport in the isentropic circulation is much larger than the one in secondary circulation. This difference can be directly attributed to the mass transport by convection in the outer rainband and confirms that, even for a strongly organized flow like a hurricane, most of the atmospheric overturning is tied to the smaller scales.

  18. Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humer, Günter; Reithofer, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria Considering the increase in flash flood events causing massive damage during the last years in urban but also rural areas [1-4], the requirement for hydrodynamic calculation of flash flood prone areas and possible countermeasures has arisen to many municipalities and local governments. Besides the German based URBAS project [1], also the EU-funded FP7 research project "SWITCH-ON" [5] addresses the damage risk caused by flash floods in the sub-project "FFRM" (Flash Flood Risk Map Upper Austria) by calculating damage risk for buildings and vulnerable infrastructure like schools and hospitals caused by flash-flood driven inundation. While danger zones in riverine flooding are established as an integral part of spatial planning, flash floods caused by overland runoff from extreme rain events have been for long an underrated safety hazard not only for buildings and infrastructure, but man and animals as well. Based on the widespread 2D-model "hydro_as-2D", an extension was developed, which calculates the runoff formation from a spatially and temporally variable precipitation and determines two dimensionally the land surface area runoff and its concentration. The conception of the model is to preprocess the precipitation data and calculate the effective runoff-volume for a short time step of e.g. five minutes. This volume is applied to the nodes of the 2D-model and the calculation of the hydrodynamic model is started. At the end of each time step, the model run is stopped, the preprocessing step is repeated and the hydraulic model calculation is continued. In view of the later use for the whole of Upper Austria (12.000 km²) a model grid of 25x25 m² was established using digital elevation data. Model parameters could be estimated for the small catchment of river Ach, which was hit by an intense rain event with up to 109 mm per hour

  19. Vulnerability and social resilience: comparison of two neighborhoods in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leroy Jeanne

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available On August 29th of 2005, Hurricane Katrina hit the gulf coast of the United States leading to one of the most powerful disasters in history. Damage costs reached more than 100 billion dollars, as well as 150,000 flooded houses and 1,330 deaths. 10 years later, the damage remains visible in the city of New Orleans, and the rate of recovery is highly varied throughout different neighborhoods in the city. A popular idea is to associate this to the neighborhood social class, i.e. the poorer an area is, the more difficult the recovery process is. However the reality is more complex. This study looks at two economically similar and highly damaged neighborhoods, with two deeply different recoveries. The Lower 9th Ward, an isolated, and poor neighborhood surrounded by water with the Mississippi River and the industrial canal, has experienced an extremely slow recovery. However, in the isolated and relatively poor neighborhood known as Village de l’Est, located on former marshes at the edge of the city between Lake Pontchartrain and the Bayou Bienvenue, the Vietnamese community ties and cohesion have brought the neighborhood back to fruition faster than anyone would have expected. Despite many common features weakening their technical resilience, such as relatively modern and fast urbanization on former natural and low lands protected mostly by levees, their radically different reaction following Katrina points out the key role of social resilience. This communication will aim to present decisive social aspects of resilience aside from geophysical and physical features such as risk awareness, social link and community culture.

  20. Modelling hurricane exposure and wind speed on a mesoclimate scale: a case study from Cusuco NP, Honduras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batke, Sven P; Jocque, Merlijn; Kelly, Daniel L

    2014-01-01

    High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP), Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS) through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS's were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction) explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field). Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%.

  1. Liver Damage Risk Assessment Study in Workers Occupationally Exposed to E-waste in Benin City, South-South Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osaretin God Igaro Igaro

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available    Large volumes of mostly irreparable electronic waste (e-waste are shipped to Africa on a monthly basis, of which Nigeria receives the largest share. E-waste management practices in Nigeria have remained completely primitive until date; and e-waste workers have little or no occupational safety knowledge and devices. The thousands of chemicals in e-waste have been reported to be toxic to human health in any degree of exposure. The present study has assessed the risk of liver damage in workers occupationally exposed to e-waste in Benin City, South-south Nigeria in 2014. Serum activities of liver enzymes [alanine aminotransferase (ALT, aspartate aminotransferase (AST, gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT and alkaline phosphatase (ALP]; and levels albumin (ALB, total bilirubin (T/Bil and conjugated bilirubin (C/Bil were determined using standard colorimetric methods. Serum Alpha fetoprotein (AFP was determined using ELISA in Nigerian e-waste workers (n=63 and in age-matched unexposed participants (n=41 in Benin City. The results showed significantly raised activities of enzymatic biomarkers of liver damage (ALT, AST, ALP and GGT in the e-waste group compared with the unexposed participants. There was no significant difference in the levels of ALB, T/Bil and C/Bil between exposed and unexposed participants. AFP levels in e-waste workers (3.56 ± 0.34 ng/mL were significantly different compared with the unexposed group (2.14 ± 0.80 ng/mL (P< 0.045. The significantly elevated cancer risk biomarker (AFP and the enzymatic biomarkers of liver damage observed in the Nigerian e-waste workers studied may be associated with occupational exposure to known carcinogens and hepatotoxic metals in e-waste. 

  2. Differences in impacts of Hurricane Sandy on freshwater swamps on the Delmarva Peninsula, Mid−Atlantic Coast, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane wind and surge may have different influences on the subsequent composition of forests. During Hurricane Sandy, while damaging winds were highest near landfall in New Jersey, inundation occurred along the entire eastern seaboard from Georgia to Maine. In this study, a comparison of damage from salinity intrusion vs. wind/surge was recorded in swamps of the Delmarva Peninsula along the Pocomoke (MD) and Nanticoke (DE) Rivers, south of the most intense wind damage. Hickory Point Cypress Swamp (Hickory) was closest to the Chesapeake Bay and may have been subjected to a salinity surge as evidenced by elevated salinity levels at a gage upstream of this swamp (storm salinity = 13.1 ppt at Nassawango Creek, Snow Hill, Maryland). After Hurricane Sandy, 8% of the standing trees died at Hickory including Acer rubrum, Amelanchier laevis, Ilex spp., and Taxodium distichum. In Plot 2 of Hickory, 25% of the standing trees were dead, and soil salinity levels were the highest recorded in the study. The most important variables related to structural tree damage were soil salinity and proximity to the Atlantic coast as based on Stepwise Regression and NMDS procedures. Wind damage was mostly restricted to broken branches although tipped−up trees were found at Hickory, Whiton and Porter (species: Liquidamabar styraciflua, Pinus taeda, Populus deltoides, Quercus pagoda and Ilex spp.). These trees fell mostly in an east or east−southeast direction (88o−107o) in keeping with the wind direction of Hurricane Sandy on the Delmarva Peninsula. Coastal restoration and management can be informed by the specific differences in hurricane damage to vegetation by salt versus wind.

  3. First-year growth for two oak species and three planting stocks planted on areas disturbed by Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew Dowdy; Andrew W. Ezell; Emily B. Schultz; John D. Hodges; Andrew B. Self

    2014-01-01

    Bottomland hardwood forests were damaged by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 when it made landfall along the Gulf Coast. Regenerating these areas, which can be difficult without planning and artificial regeneration, has often been problematic when using 1-0 bare-root seedlings because of inconsistencies with the seedling quality. Some growers have begun producing...

  4. Measuring and Comparing Hospital Accessibility for Palm Beach County's Elderly and Nonelderly Populations During a Hurricane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Shivangi

    2017-09-18

    To determine whether, during a hurricane, geographic accessibility to hospitals with emergency care is compromised disproportionately for the elderly than for the nonelderly. The locations of hospitals with emergency health care and a subset of those hospitals functional during a hurricane were compared with the distribution of the elderly population at the block group level in Palm Beach County, Florida. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) proximity analysis (minimum distance to closest hospital) and cumulative distribution functions were used to measure and compare hospital accessibility during normal and hurricane conditions for the elderly and nonelderly populations. Accessibility to closest functional hospital during a hurricane was compromised disproportionately for the elderly. Geographic accessibility to emergency health care is compromised disproportionately for the elderly in Palm Beach County. Compounding the risk is the likelihood of the elderly experiencing a greater health care need during a hurricane. This poses a community public health crisis and calls for effective and collaborative planning between health professionals and disaster planners to address the health care needs of the elderly. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;page 1 of 5).

  5. How many holes is too many? A prototype tool for estimating mosquito entry risk into damaged bed nets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutcliffe, James; Ji, Xin; Yin, Shaoman

    2017-08-01

    Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) have played an integral role in malaria reduction but how insecticide depletion and accumulating physical damage affect ITN performance is poorly understood. More accurate methods are needed to assess damage to bed nets so that they can be designed, deployed and replaced optimally. Video recordings of female Anopheles gambiae in near approach (1-½ cm) to occupied untreated rectangular bed nets in a laboratory study were used to quantify the amount of mosquito activity (appearances over time) around different parts of the net, the per-appearance probability of a mosquito coming close to holes of different sizes (hole encounter) and the per-encounter probability of mosquitoes passing through holes of different sizes (hole passage). Appearance frequency on different parts of the net reflected previously reported patterns: the area of the net under greatest mosquito pressure was the roof, followed by the bottom 30 cm of the sides, followed by the 30 cm area immediately above this, followed by the upper two-thirds of the sides. The ratio of activity in these areas was (respectively) 250:33:5:1. Per-appearance probability of hole encounter on all parts of the net was strongly predicted by a factor combining hole perimeter and area. Per-encounter probability of hole passage, in turn, was strongly predicted by hole width. For a given width, there was a 20% greater risk of passage through holes on the roof than holes on the sides. Appearance, encounter and passage predictors correspond to various mosquito behaviours that have previously been described and are combined into a prototype mosquito entry risk tool that predicts mosquito entry rates for nets with various amounts of damage. Scenarios that use the entry risk tool to test the recommendations of the WHOPES proportionate hole index (pHI) suggest that the pHI hole size categories and failure to account for hole location likely sometimes lead to incorrect conclusions about net

  6. Blood pressure variability predicts cardiovascular events independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and target organ damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vishram, Julie K K; Dahlöf, Björn; Devereux, Richard B

    2015-01-01

    ). METHODS: In 8505 patients randomized to losartan vs. atenolol-based treatment in the LIFE study, we tested whether BP variability assessed as SD and range for BP6-24months measured at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months of treatment was associated with target organ damage (TOD) defined by LVH on ECG and urine albumin......BACKGROUND: Assessment of antihypertensive treatment is normally based on the mean value of a number of blood pressure (BP) measurements. However, it is uncertain whether high in-treatment visit-to-visit BP variability may be harmful in hypertensive patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH.......05), but MI was not. CONCLUSION: In LIFE patients, higher in-treatment BP6-24months variability was independently of mean BP6-24months associated with later CEP and stroke, but not with MI or TOD after 24 months....

  7. Indirect assessment of economic damages from the Prestige oil spill: consequences for liability and risk prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garza, María Dolores; Prada, Albino; Varela, Manuel; Rodríguez, María Xosé Vázquez

    2009-03-01

    The social losses arising from the Prestige oil spill exceed the compensation granted under the IOPC (International Oil Pollution Compensation) system, with losses estimated at 15 times more than the applicable limit of compensations. This is far above the level of costs for which those responsible for hydrocarbons spills are liable. The highest market losses correspond to sectors of extraction, elaboration and commercialisation of seafood. However, damages to non-commercial natural resources could constitute an outstanding group of losses for which further primary data are needed: these losses would only be compensable under the current system by means of a refund for cleaning and restoration costs. Results show that, in Europe, the responsibility for oil spills in maritime transport is limited and unclear. The consequence of this is net social losses from recurrent oil spills and internationally accepted incentives for risky strategies in the marine transport of hydrocarbons.

  8. Calcific aortic valve damage as a risk factor for cardiovascular events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasilewski, Jarosław; Mirota, Kryspin; Wilczek, Krzysztof; Głowacki, Jan; Poloński, Lech

    2012-01-01

    Aortic valve calcification (AVC) is a common disease of the elderly. It is a progressive disease ranging from mild valve thickening to severe calcification with aortic valve stenosis. Risk factors for AVC are similar to those for atherosclerosis: age, gender, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, hypertension, smoking and renal failure. AVC shares many similarities to atherosclerosis, including inflammatory cells and calcium deposits, and correlates with coronary plaque burden. Presence of AVC is associated with increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events. The objective for this review is to discuss the clinical features, natural history and prognostic significance of aortic valve calcifications, including mechanical and hemodynamic factors of flow distribution

  9. Comparative Sediment Transport Between Exposed and Reef Protected Beaches Under Different Hurricane Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miret, D.; Enriquez, C.; Marino-Tapia, I.

    2016-12-01

    Many world coast regions are subjected to tropical cyclone activity, which can cause major damage to beaches and infrastructure on sediment dominated coasts. The Caribbean Sea has on average 4 hurricanes per year, some of them have caused major damage to coastal cities in the past 25 years. For example, Wilma, a major hurricane that hit SE Mexico in October 2005 generated strong erosion at an exposed beach (Cancun), while beach accretion was observed 28 km south at a fringing reef protected beach (Puerto Morelos). Hurricanes with similar intensity and trajectory but different moving speeds have been reported to cause a different morphological response. The present study analyses the morphodynamic response to the hydrodynamic conditions of exposed and reef protected beaches, generated by hurricanes with similar intensities but different trajectories and moving speeds. A non-stationary Delft3D Wave model is used to generate large scale wind swell conditions and local sea wind states and coupled with Delft3D Flow model to study the connection between the continental shelf and surf zones exchanges. The model is validated with hydrodynamic data gathered during Wilma, and morphological conditions measured before and after the event. Preliminary results show that erosion appears at the exposed beach and a predominant exchange between north and south dominates the shelf sediment transport (figure 1). Onshore driven flows over the reef crest input sediment in the reef protected beach. It is expected that for a same track but faster moving speed, southward sediment transport will have less time to develop and accretion at the reef protected site would be less evident or inexistent. The study can be used as a prediction tool for shelf scale sediment transport exchange driven by hurricanes.

  10. Parametric Adjustments to the Rankine Vortex Wind Model for Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-01

    2012 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Parametric Adjustments to the Rankine Vortex Wind Model for Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT ...may be used to construct spatially varying wind fields for the GOM region (e.g., Thompson and Cardone [12]), but this requires using a complicated...Storm Damage Reduc- tion, and Dredging Operations and Environmental Research (DOER). The USACE Headquarters granted permission to publish this paper

  11. Nuclear risks and insurance against damage to persons from atomic and other power sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avdonin, Eh.K.; Gavrilov, S.D.; Kovalevich, O.M.

    2001-01-01

    A factor of potential risk which influence on choice of strategic direct of the power engineering development was considered. Now this factor has vital importance in Russia, Belarus and other countries of East Europe because of accumulated depreciation of power engineering

  12. Parent Perceptions of Children's Leisure and the Risk of Damaging Noise Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Lyndal; Black, Deborah; Bundy, Anita; Williams, Warwick

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to survey the attitudes of parents of adolescent children (with, and without, hearing impairment), with the following objectives: (1) compare perceptions of the parent groups regarding the risk of leisure-noise-related hearing injury; and (2) investigate how comfortable parents felt endorsing their child's…

  13. FACTORS THAT MAY DETERMINE THE RECOVERY RATE OF FINANCIAL RISK DAMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Diana Rosioru

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The information about the performance of a company, especially about its profitability, are useful to the consideration of potential changes of the economic resources, which the company might further control and the forecast of the ability to generate treasury flows by the existent resources. Also, based on the performance, judgments are expressed, aiming the efficiency whereof the company may use new resources. The performance of company may be influenced by its financial risk. The financial risk is defined as “variability of result indicators, under the incidence of financial structure of the company” . It is established by “the financing policy of the company, by equity or loans”. The financial risk results by the structure of the company shareholding or by the use method of financial instruments. The financial risks result by different sources, including changes of the interest rate, currency trades, expansions of lending operations, issuance of shares, as well as the use of derived financial instruments (IFD.

  14. Antioxidant vitamins and cancer risk: is oxidative damage to DNA a relevant biomarker?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loft, Steffen; Møller, Peter; Cooke, Marcus S

    2008-01-01

    -dihydroguanine (8-oxodG) are increasingly being regarded as reliable biomarkers of oxidative stress and they may have a predictive value of cancer risk, although this needs to be established independently in several cohort studies. A survey of intervention studies of the ingestion of antioxidant-containing foods...

  15. Geotechnical Impacts of Hurricane Harvey Along the Texas, USA Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smallegan, S. M.; Stark, N.; Jafari, N.; Ravichandran, N.; Shafii, I.; Bassal, P.; Figlus, J.

    2017-12-01

    As part of the NSF-funded Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance (GEER) Association response to Hurricane Harvey, a team of engineers and scientists mobilized to the coastal cities of Texas, USA from 1 to 5 September 2017. Damage to coastal and riverine structures due to erosion by storm surge, waves, and coastal and riverine flooding was assessed in a wide coastal zone between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Making initial landfall near Rockport, Texas on 26 August 2017, Hurricane Harvey was classified as a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale with wind speeds exceeding 130 mph and an atmospheric pressure of 938 mbar. The storm stalled over the Houston area, pouring 40 inches of rain on an area encompassing more than 3,000 square miles. Hurricane Harvey, which remained a named storm for 117 hours after initial landfall, slowly moved east into the Gulf of Mexico and made final landfall near Cameron, Louisiana on 30 August. The GEER team surveyed sixteen main sites, extending from Mustang Island in the southwest to Galveston in the northeast and as far inland as Rosenburg. In Port Aransas, beach erosion and undercutting along a beach access road near Aransas Pass were observed. Due to several tide gauge failures in this area, the nearest NOAA tide gauge (#8775870 near Corpus Christi) was used to estimate water levels of 1.35 m, approximately 1.0 m above the predicted tide. In Holiday Beach, anchored retaining walls were inundated, causing backside scour along the entire length and exposing the sheetpile wall anchors. Along the Colorado River at the Highway 35 bridge near Bay City, active riverbank failure was observed and a sheet pile wall was found collapsed. Significant sediment deposits lined the vegetated riverbanks. A USGS stream gage recorded gage heights greater than 45 ft, exceeding the flood stage of 44 ft. Fronting a rubblemound seawall in Surfside Beach, a runnel and ridge formation was observed. Nearby at San Luis Pass, infilled scour

  16. [Hurricane Paloma's effects on seagrasses along Jardines de la Reina Archipelago, Cuba].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarais, Mayrene; Zúñiga, Adán; Pina, Fabián; Matos, Felipe

    2013-09-01

    Seagrasses are one of the most important coastal ecosystems since they promote organic matter flow, nutrient cycling, food availability and refuge. Until now, reports on damages caused by storms and hurricanes on seagrass beds are uncommon and highly variable. The seagrass meadows of the East end of Jardines de la Reina archipelago were surveyed from Nov. 29th to Dec. 5th of 2008, in order to determinate the effects from the passing of Hurricane Paloma: a category three storm on the Saffir-Simpsom scale. A rapid field assessment of the affected areas was carried out using the manta tow technique. In six sites, seagrass was quantitatively evaluated using a 15cm diameter core (four sampling units per site) and shoot density was calculated. Remote sensing techniques were used to estimate seagrass cover. To estimate the percentage of affected areas, a Region of Interest (ROI) was first created over a Landsat image. The percentage of seagrass affected within the ROI was estimated through direct georeferentiation of the contours of the damaged area and with a comparison to the total seagrass extension. To find possible explanations for damages, a false colour image was created using the near infrared band, to highlight the differences between emerged and submerged zones. The direction of winds was estimated using ArcGis 9.2 creating circular buffers, from the centre of the hurricane and generating lines tangent to the buffers. Seagrass in the region was dominated by the angiosperm Thalassia testudinum. Regional mean density was 1 321 +/- 721 shoots/m2, a value regarded as high for the Caribbean area. Seagrass meadows were partly affected by sediment accumulation on the shoots of T. testudinum and uprooting rhizomes. The 7.6 km2 disturbed area represented 1% of the total seagrass area. Other sites, closer to the centre of the hurricane, did not show any damages on the marine vegetation. The keys location with respect to the hurricane track was the most likely cause of the

  17. A Community-Led Medical Response Effort in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraushar, Matthew L; Rosenberg, Rebecca E

    2015-08-01

    On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy made landfall in the neighborhood of Red Hook in Brooklyn, New York. The massive tidal surge generated by the storm submerged the coastal area, home to a population over 11,000 individuals, including the largest public housing development in Brooklyn. The infrastructure devastation was profound: the storm rendered electricity, heat, water, Internet, and phone services inoperative, whereas local ambulatory medical services including clinics, pharmacies, home health agencies, and other resources were damaged beyond functionality. Lacking these services or lines of communication, medically fragile individuals became isolated from the hospital and 911-emergency systems without a preexisting mechanism to identify or treat them. Medically fragile individuals primarily included those with chronic medical conditions dependent on frequent and consistent monitoring and treatments. In response, the Red Hook community established an ad hoc volunteer medical relief effort in the wake of the storm, filling a major gap that continues to exist in disaster medicine for low-income urban environments. Here we describe this effort, including an analysis of the medically vulnerable in this community, and recommend disaster risk reduction strategies and resilience measures for future disaster events.

  18. Tracks of Major Hurricanes of the Western Hemisphere

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This 36"x24" National Hurricane Center poster depicts the complete tracks of all major hurricanes in the north Atlantic and eastern north Pacific basins since as...

  19. Continental United States Hurricane Strikes 1950-2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...

  20. Identification of Caribbean basin hurricanes from Spanish documentary sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Herrera, R. [Depto. Fisica de la Tierra II, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Gimeno, L. [Universidad de Vigo, Ourense (Spain); Ribera, P.; Gonzalez, E.; Fernandez, G. [Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla (Spain); Hernandez, E. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (Spain)

    2007-07-15

    This paper analyses five hurricanes that occurred in the period 1600 to 1800. These examples were identified during a systematic search in the General Archive of the Indies (AGI) in Seville. The research combined the expertise of climatologists and historians in order to optimise the search and analysis strategies. Results demonstrate the potential of this archive for the assessment of hurricanes in this period and show some of the difficulties involved in the collection of evidence of hurricane activity. The documents provide detailed descriptions of a hurricane's impacts and allow us to identify previously unreported hurricanes, obtain more precise dates for hurricanes previously identified, better define the area affected by a given hurricane and, finally, better assess a hurricane's intensity.

  1. 2005 Significant U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Significant U.S. Hurricane Strikes poster is one of two special edition posters for the Atlantic Hurricanes. This beautiful poster contains two sets of...

  2. Is damage to the common bile duct during laparoscopic cholecystectomy an inherent risk of the operation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Josef E

    2009-06-01

    Laparoscopic cholocystectomy has been practiced for close to 20 years. The rate of common duct injury remains somewhere between 0.4 to 0.7 percent and is approximately the same around the world. Recent papers have stressed ways in which laparoscopic common duct injury can be avoided, but none of the methods mentioned is foolproof. In addition, this complication can occur to even the most experienced laparoscopic surgeon. The author believes that injury to the common duct during laparoscopic cholocystectomy is not a result of the practice below the standard, but an inherent risk of the operation. This injury needs to be emphasized by the surgical community as an inherent risk of the operation, and patients should be fully informed of this potential complication.

  3. FACTORS THAT MAY DETERMINE THE RECOVERY RATE OF FINANCIAL RISK DAMAGES

    OpenAIRE

    Nicoleta Diana Rosioru

    2015-01-01

    The information about the performance of a company, especially about its profitability, are useful to the consideration of potential changes of the economic resources, which the company might further control and the forecast of the ability to generate treasury flows by the existent resources. Also, based on the performance, judgments are expressed, aiming the efficiency whereof the company may use new resources. The performance of company may be influenced by its financial risk. The financial...

  4. Alcohol's Collateral Damage: Childhood Exposure to Problem Drinkers and Subsequent Adult Mortality Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Richard G; Lawrence, Elizabeth M; Montez, Jennifer Karas

    2016-12-07

    The importance of childhood circumstances, broadly defined, for shaping adult health and longevity is well-established. But the significance of one of the most prevalent childhood adversities-exposure to problem drinkers-has been understudied from a sociological perspective and remains poorly understood. We address this gap by drawing on cumulative inequality theory, using data from the 1988-2011 National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files, and estimating Cox proportional hazards models to examine the relationship between exposure to problem drinkers in childhood and adult mortality risk. Childhood exposure to problem drinkers is common (nearly 1 in 5 individuals were exposed) and elevates adult overall and cause-specific mortality risk. Compared to individuals who had not lived with a problem drinker during childhood, those who had done so suffered 17 percent higher risk of death (prisk. Favorable socioeconomic status in adulthood does not ameliorate the consequences of childhood exposure to problem drinkers. The primary intervening mechanisms are risky behaviors, including adult drinking and smoking. The findings-which reveal that the influence of problem drinking is far-reaching and long-term-should inform policies to improve childhood circumstances, reduce detrimental effects of problem drinking, and increase life expectancy.

  5. Femoral nerve damage (image)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The femoral nerve is located in the leg and supplies the muscles that assist help straighten the leg. It supplies sensation ... leg. One risk of damage to the femoral nerve is pelvic fracture. Symptoms of femoral nerve damage ...

  6. THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE BETA ON THE FORESTS OF PROVIDENCIA ISLAND, COLOMBIA, SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruiz Jorge

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the consequences of global warming in the Caribbean is an increase in thefrequency and intensity of hurricanes. Little is known on the impact of this naturalphenomenon on forests, particularly for dry tropical forests. Understanding this impactin terms of structure and species richness is important for forest management. Slowmoving Hurricane Beta, a category 1, struck Old Providence island, Colombia, inOctober 29, 2005. Before Beta woody vegetation was characterized by 88 2 x 50 mplots (0.01 ha established throughout the island following the protocol by Gentry(1982; 59 plots were studied fi ve years earlier and 29 plots four to fi ve monthsearlier. The impact of hurricane Beta was assessed within 11 plots located in the DryTropical Forests of Old Providence, six months after the hurricane. The These plotswere measured in species composition, diameter at breast height (DBH, and heightwere measured within these plots. There was a considerable reduction in the numberof individuals, stems, height, basal areas, and there was no signifi cant differencebetween DBH. Height damage was positively associated with increasing DHB class.Furthermore, based on the results of species richness, even after controlling for thedifferent number of individuals, through rarefaction, there was no major differencebefore and after Beta.

  7. Hurricanes, coral reefs and rainforests: resistance, ruin and recovery in the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lugo, Ariel E.; Rogers, Caroline S.; Nixon, Scott W.

    2000-01-01

    The coexistence of hurricanes, coral reefs, and rainforests in the Caribbean demonstrates that highly structured ecosystems with great diversity can flourish in spite of recurring exposure to intense destructive energy. Coral reefs develop in response to wave energy and resist hurricanes largely by virtue of their structural strength. Limited fetch also protects some reefs from fully developed hurricane waves. While storms may produce dramatic local reef damage, they appear to have little impact on the ability of coral reefs to provide food or habitat for fish and other animals. Rainforests experience an enormous increase in wind energy during hurricanes with dramatic structural changes in the vegetation. The resulting changes in forest microclimate are larger than those on reefs and the loss of fruit, leaves, cover, and microclimate has a great impact on animal populations. Recovery of many aspects of rainforest structure and function is rapid, though there may be long-term changes in species composition. While resistance and repair have maintained reefs and rainforests in the past, human impacts may threaten their ability to survive.

  8. Age-related mechanical strength evolution of trabecular bone under fatigue damage for both genders: Fracture risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Kahla, Rabeb; Barkaoui, Abdelwahed; Merzouki, Tarek

    2018-05-04

    Bone tissue is a living composite material, providing mechanical and homeostatic functions, and able to constantly adapt its microstructure to changes in long term loading. This adaptation is conducted by a physiological process, known as "bone remodeling". This latter is manifested by interactions between osteoclasts and osteoblasts, and can be influenced by many local factors, via effects on bone cell differentiation and proliferation. In the current work, age and gender effects on damage rate evolution, throughout life, have been investigated using a mechanobiological finite element modeling. To achieve the aim, a mathematical model has been developed, coupling both cell activities and mechanical behavior of trabecular bone, under cyclic loadings. A series of computational simulations (ABAQUS/UMAT) has been performed on a 3D human proximal femur, allowing to investigate the effects of mechanical and biological parameters on mechanical strength of trabecular bone, in order to evaluate the fracture risk resulting from fatigue damage. The obtained results revealed that mechanical stimulus amplitude affects bone resorption and formation rates, and indicated that age and gender are major factors in bone response to the applied loadings. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Decision-making system for registration and prioritisation of potentially polluted sites adaptable for management of war damage risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanczos, T.; Pedersen, K. E.

    2002-01-01

    We would like to present a decision-support system developed for identification and storing data concerning with potentially polluted sites and their prioritising. This system could also be adapted for reviewing and evaluation of the war damages. The operation of the system comprises of three procedures: data collection, data handling and the prioritisation of the sites. The relevant data could be collected from different sources, represented mainly by administrative institutions, by sending questionnaires to site owners/operators and by site visits. The collected data should be handled by appropriate database. For this purpose the Contaminated Land Module of the GeoEnviron database application was developed. This application is also designed for providing the preliminary risk assessment scores, which results are used for the site prioritisation. As an example implementation of this system, we shortly present our experiences from testing the system in Slovakia

  10. Projecting the risk of damage to reef-lined coasts due to intensified tropical cyclones and sea level rise in Palau to 2100

    OpenAIRE

    Hongo, Chuki; Kurihara, Haruko; Golbuu, Yimnang

    2017-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs), sea level rise (SLR), and storm surges cause major problems including beach erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and damage to infrastructure in coastal areas. The magnitude and extent of damage is predicted to increase as a consequence of future climate change and local factors. Upward reef growth has attracted attention for its role as a natural breakwater able to reduce the risks of natural disasters to coastal communities. However, projections of change ...

  11. Hurricane Val in American Samoa: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weaver, D.A.; Henderson, H.

    1993-01-01

    On Monday, December 9, 1991, Hurricane Val hit American Samoa. Along with the many homes and buildings that had been destroyed, nine abandoned fishing vessels were torn from their mooring and washed up onto the reef in Pago Pago Harbor. Several hundred gallons of diesel fuel were released into the water; about 12,000 gallons remained onboard the vessels. The efforts of the US Coast Guard (USCG), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Samoa Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA), and local contractors helped mitigate the damage. The USCG Pacific Strike Team (PST) was tasked with monitoring, removing, and disposing of the petroleum products that remained onboard the vessels. The strike team also investigated reports of chemical spills throughout the island

  12. Hazards of neoliberalism: delayed electric power restoration after Hurricane Ike.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Lee M; Antonio, Robert J; Bonanno, Alessandro

    2011-09-01

    This case study explores how neoliberal policies shape the impacts of a natural disaster. We investigate the reactions to major damages to the electric power system and the restoration of power in the wake of Hurricane Ike, which devastated the Houston, Texas, metropolitan area in September 2008. We argue that the neoliberal policy agenda insured a minimalist approach to the crisis and generated dissatisfaction among many residents. The short-term profitability imperative shifted reconstruction costs to consumers, and prevented efforts to upgrade the electric power infrastructure to prepare for future disasters. We illustrate the serious obstacles for disaster mitigation and recovery posed by neoliberal policies that privatize public goods and socialize private costs. Neoliberalism neither addresses the needs of a highly stratified public nor their long-term interests and safety. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2011.

  13. Quantification of flash flood economic risk using ultra-detailed stage-damage functions and 2-D hydraulic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrote, J.; Alvarenga, F. M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

    2016-10-01

    The village of Pajares de Pedraza (Segovia, Spain) is located in the floodplain of the Cega River, a left bank tributary of the Douro River. Repeated flash flood events occur in this small village because of its upstream catchment area, mountainous character and impermeable lithology, which reduce concentration time to just a few hours. River overbank flow has frequently caused flooding and property damage to homes and rural properties, most notably in 1927, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2013 and 2014. Consequently, a detailed analysis was carried out to quantify the economic risk of flash floods in peri-urban and rural areas. Magnitudes and exceedance probabilities were obtained from a flood frequency analysis of maximum discharges. To determine the extent and characteristics of the flooded area, we performed 2D hydraulic modeling (Iber 2.0 software) based on LIDAR (1 m) topography and considering three different scenarios associated with the initial construction (1997) and subsequent extension (2013) of a linear defense structure (rockfill dike or levee) to protect the population. Specific stage-damage functions were expressly developed using in situ data collection for exposed elements, with special emphasis on urban-type categories. The average number of elements and their unit value were established. The relationship between water depth and the height at which electric outlets, furniture, household goods, etc. were located was analyzed; due to its effect on the form of the function. Other nonspecific magnitude-damage functions were used in order to compare both economic estimates. The results indicate that the use of non-specific magnitude-damage functions leads to a significant overestimation of economic losses, partly linked to the use of general economic cost data. Furthermore, a detailed classification and financial assessment of exposed assets is the most important step to ensure a correct estimate of financial losses. In both cases, this should include a

  14. Seismic risk assessment of building based on damaged database of 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake; Hyogoken nanbu jishin no hisai database wo mochiita kenchikubutsu no jishin risk hyoka ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suwa, H.; Nobata, A.; Seki, M. [Obayashi Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    2000-01-10

    The objective of this paper is to evaluate a vulnerability function and a repair cost in terms of each structural damage level based on the damaged database of the 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe is calculated through the analytical results. As a result, the following are verified : 1. The expectation of vulnerability function, in which peak ground acceleration is taken for seismic intensity, is about 550 cm/s{sup 2} for minor damage, about 700 cm/s{sup 2} for moderate damage, and about 950 cm/s{sup 2} for major damage respectively. However, the coefficient of variation (C. O. V. ) is about 0.5 for all damage levels. 2. The expectation of repair cost per square meter is about 29000 yen for minor damage, about 60000 yen for moderate damage, and about 64000 yen for major damage respectively. However, the variation is very large, for example, the C. O. V. for repair cost varies from 1.2 to 1.6. 3. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe, that is normalized by new construction cost, is about three percent on condition that the design lifetime is assumed to be 50 years. (author)

  15. The risk of PCI damage to 8x8 fuel rods during limit cycle instability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schrire, D.; Oguma, R.; Malen, K.

    1994-12-31

    A BWR reactor core may experience thermal-hydraulic instability under certain operating conditions. Generally, the instability results in neutron flux (i e generated neutronic power) and coolant flow and pressure oscillations, which reach a maximum `limit cycle` amplitude. The cladding response to power transients has been studied using noise analysis. These results have been compared to results from code calculations using the fuel code TOODEE 2. From these results the risk for fuel rod failure due to pellet-clad mechanical interaction and possible failure due to stress corrosion cracking (PCI) has been estimated. It turns out that for the oscillation frequencies of interest (0,3-0,5 Hz) the fuel response amplitude reduction makes PCI-failure improbable. 17 refs.

  16. Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Michael; Fuhrer, Jürg; Holzkämper, Annelie

    2018-01-01

    Late spring frost is a severe risk during early plant development. It may cause important economic damage to grapevine production. In a warming climate, late frost risk either could decline due to the reduction in frost days and an advancement of the last day of frost or increase due to a more pronounced shift forward of the start of the active growing period of the plants. These possibilities were analyzed in a case study for two locations in the lower Swiss Rhone Valley (Sion, Aigle) where viticulture is an important part of agriculture. Twelve phenology models were calibrated for the developmental stage BBCH09 (bud burst) using measured or reconstructed temperature data for two vineyards in Changins (1958 to 2012) and Leytron (1977 to 2014) together with observed phenological data. The day of year (DOY) for BBCH09 was then modelled for the years 1951 to 2050 using the best performing phenology model in combination with ten downscaled and bias-corrected climate scenarios. A 100-day period starting with BBCH09 was defined, during which daily mean and minimum temperatures were used to calculate three frost risk indices in each year. These indices were compared between the periods 1961-1990 (reference) and 2021-2050 (climate change scenario). Based on the average of the ensemble of climate model chains, BBCH09 advanced by 9 (range 7-11) (Aigle) and 7 (range 5-8) (Sion) days between the two time periods, similar to the shift in the last day of frost. The separate results of the different model chains suggest that, in the near future, late spring frost risk may increase or decrease, depending on location and climate change projections. While for the reference, the risk is larger at the warmer site (Sion) compared to that at the cooler site (Aigle), for the period 2021-2050, small shifts in both phenology and occurrence of frost (i.e., days with daily minimum temperature below 0 °C) lead to a small decrease in frost risk at the warmer but an increase at the cooler

  17. Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Michael; Fuhrer, Jürg; Holzkämper, Annelie

    2018-06-01

    Late spring frost is a severe risk during early plant development. It may cause important economic damage to grapevine production. In a warming climate, late frost risk either could decline due to the reduction in frost days and an advancement of the last day of frost or increase due to a more pronounced shift forward of the start of the active growing period of the plants. These possibilities were analyzed in a case study for two locations in the lower Swiss Rhone Valley (Sion, Aigle) where viticulture is an important part of agriculture. Twelve phenology models were calibrated for the developmental stage BBCH09 (bud burst) using measured or reconstructed temperature data for two vineyards in Changins (1958 to 2012) and Leytron (1977 to 2014) together with observed phenological data. The day of year (DOY) for BBCH09 was then modelled for the years 1951 to 2050 using the best performing phenology model in combination with ten downscaled and bias-corrected climate scenarios. A 100-day period starting with BBCH09 was defined, during which daily mean and minimum temperatures were used to calculate three frost risk indices in each year. These indices were compared between the periods 1961-1990 (reference) and 2021-2050 (climate change scenario). Based on the average of the ensemble of climate model chains, BBCH09 advanced by 9 (range 7-11) (Aigle) and 7 (range 5-8) (Sion) days between the two time periods, similar to the shift in the last day of frost. The separate results of the different model chains suggest that, in the near future, late spring frost risk may increase or decrease, depending on location and climate change projections. While for the reference, the risk is larger at the warmer site (Sion) compared to that at the cooler site (Aigle), for the period 2021-2050, small shifts in both phenology and occurrence of frost (i.e., days with daily minimum temperature below 0 °C) lead to a small decrease in frost risk at the warmer but an increase at the cooler

  18. 75 FR 54918 - Draft Regulatory Guide, DG-1247, “Design-Basis Hurricane and Hurricane Missiles for Nuclear Power...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-09

    .... This series was developed to describe and make available to the public such information as methods that... maximum hurricane windspeeds for hurricanes that originate in the Atlantic and make landfall along the... connected and provides an aerodynamic sail area on which the wind can act. An automobile hurricane missile...

  19. Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

    2011-12-01

    This article compares statistical methods for modeling power outage durations during hurricanes and examines the predictive accuracy of these methods. Being able to make accurate predictions of power outage durations is valuable because the information can be used by utility companies to plan their restoration efforts more efficiently. This information can also help inform customers and public agencies of the expected outage times, enabling better collective response planning, and coordination of restoration efforts for other critical infrastructures that depend on electricity. In the long run, outage duration estimates for future storm scenarios may help utilities and public agencies better allocate risk management resources to balance the disruption from hurricanes with the cost of hardening power systems. We compare the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of five distinct statistical models for estimating power outage duration times caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The methods compared include both regression models (accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models (Cox PH)) and data mining techniques (regression trees, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), and multivariate additive regression splines). We then validate our models against two other hurricanes. Our results indicate that BART yields the best prediction accuracy and that it is possible to predict outage durations with reasonable accuracy. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Urban sprawl and body mass index among displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcaya, Mariana; James, Peter; Rhodes, Jean E; Waters, Mary C; Subramanian, S V

    2014-08-01

    Existing research suggests that walkable environments are protective against weight gain, while sprawling neighborhoods may pose health risks. Using prospective data on displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors, we provide the first natural experimental data on sprawl and body mass index (BMI). The analysis uses prospectively collected pre- (2003-2005) and post-hurricane (2006-2007) data from the Resilience in Survivors of Katrina (RISK) project on 280 displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors who had little control over their neighborhood placement immediately after the disaster. The county sprawl index, a standardized measure of built environment, was used to predict BMI at follow-up, adjusted for baseline BMI and sprawl; hurricane-related trauma; and demographic and economic characteristics. Respondents from 8 New Orleans-area counties were dispersed to 76 counties post-Katrina. Sprawl increased by an average of 1.5 standard deviations (30 points) on the county sprawl index. Each one point increase in sprawl was associated with approximately .05kg/m(2) higher BMI in unadjusted models (95%CI: .01-.08), and the relationship was not attenuated after covariate adjustment. We find a robust association between residence in a sprawling county and higher BMI unlikely to be caused by self-selection into neighborhoods, suggesting that the built environment may foster changes in weight. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Simulating the effects of social networks on a population's hurricane evacuation participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widener, Michael J.; Horner, Mark W.; Metcalf, Sara S.

    2013-04-01

    Scientists have noted that recent shifts in the earth's climate have resulted in more extreme weather events, like stronger hurricanes. Such powerful storms disrupt societal function and result in a tremendous number of casualties, as demonstrated by recent hurricane experience in the US Planning for and facilitating evacuations of populations forecast to be impacted by hurricanes is perhaps the most effective strategy for reducing risk. A potentially important yet relatively unexplored facet of people's evacuation decision-making involves the interpersonal communication processes that affect whether at-risk residents decide to evacuate. While previous research has suggested that word-of-mouth effects are limited, data supporting these assertions were collected prior to the widespread adoption of digital social media technologies. This paper argues that the influence of social network effects on evacuation decisions should be revisited given the potential of new social media for impacting and augmenting information dispersion through real-time interpersonal communication. Using geographic data within an agent-based model of hurricane evacuation in Bay County, Florida, we examine how various types of social networks influence participation in evacuation. It is found that strategies for encouraging evacuation should consider the social networks influencing individuals during extreme events, as it can be used to increase the number of evacuating residents.

  2. Experimental Shock Damage Risk Assessment for New Generation TAS-B Plasmic Propulsion Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnier, J.; De Fruytier, C.

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents the methodology and the results of the shock test campaign conducted by TAS-B to qualify the PPU Mk2 unit in regards of increased shock levels.This unit supplies and controls two Plasma Thrusters used for satellite orbit keeping and attitude control. The PPU Mk2 unit mechanical design is based on a modular architecture. The different modules are mounted on a baseplate insuring thermal spreading and improved equipment flatness. The unit dimensions are 390 x 190 x 190 mm3 for a total mass of 11.5 kg.The PPU Mk2 contains several components sensitive to shock like specific inductors, transformers and relays. Due to an increasing of the shock specification in regards of the previous generation of PPU, it has been proposed to assess the good withstanding of these components and in order to mitigate the risks on the Qualification Model, a preliminary shock test has been performed on a Structural Model. This model is fully representative of the flight equipment in terms of mechanical interfaces and has been designed to have the same mechanical behaviour (same mass and main modes). Critical components have been embedded in this structural model in order to test their shock withstanding. Preliminary to this Structural Model, qualification at sensitive components levels has been performed through vibrations, shocks (half-sine) and thermal cycling. Evolution of the electrical main parameters has been followed to detect any degradation of the performance during this test campaigns.Then, the structural model has been instrumented to acquire the global behaviour of the equipment. Success criteria have been defined concerning mechanical behaviour before and after shocks, admissible electrical variations, visual inspections.After calibration phasis of the test bench, the shock test of the PPU Mk2 SM has been successfully conducted. The good test results allowed applying these shock levels confidently on the PPU Mk2 EQM model.

  3. The effects of Hurricane Sandy on trauma center admissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, T; Bogdanovski, D A; Hicks, A S; Bilaniuk, J W; Adams, J M; Siegel, B K; DiFazio, L T; Durling-Grover, R; Nemeth, Z H

    2018-02-01

    Hurricane Sandy was a particularly unusual storm with regard to both size and location of landfall. The storm landed in New Jersey, which is unusual for a tropical storm of such scale, and created hazardous conditions which caused injury to residents during the storm and in the months following. This study aims to describe differences in trauma center admissions and patterns of injury during this time period when compared to a period with no such storm. Data were collected for this study from patients who were admitted to the trauma center at Morristown Medical Center during Hurricane Sandy or the ensuing cleanup efforts (patients admitted between 29 October 2012 and 27 December 2012) as well as a control group consisting of all patients admitted to the trauma center between 29 October 2013 and 27 December 2013. Patient information was collected to compare the admissions of the trauma center during the period of the storm and cleanup to the control period. A total of 419 cases were identified in the storm and cleanup period. 427 were identified for the control. Striking injuries were more common in the storm and cleanup group by 266.7% (p = 0.0107); cuts were more common by 650.8% (p = 0.0044). Medical records indicate that many of these injuries were caused by Hurricane Sandy. Self-inflicted injuries were more common by 301.3% (p = 0.0294). There were no significant differences in the total number of patients, mortality, or injury severity score between the two cohorts. The data we have collected show that the conditions caused by Hurricane Sandy and the following cleanup had a significant effect on injury patterns, with more patients having been injured by being struck by falling or thrown objects, cut while using tools, or causing self-inflicted injuries. These changes, particularly during the cleanup period, are indicative of environmental changes following the storm which increase these risks of injury.

  4. Worldwide historical hurricane tracks from 1848 through the previous hurricane season

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This Historical Hurricane Tracks web site provides visualizations of storm tracks derived from the 6-hourly (0000, 0600, 1200, 1800 UTC) center locations and...

  5. Statistical model for assessing the risk of hail damage to any ground installation. Technical report, June 1978-March 1979

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, M; Armstrong, P R

    1979-09-01

    This report describes a statistical model which has been developed to determine the risk of damage by large hail to any ground installation (such as a solar flat plate collector). The model is based on data for the number of haildays per year, hailstone size distribution, and storm severity (expressed in number of hailstones per square meter per storm). Other than parameters derived from the raw meteorological data available, the parameters of the model are the number of years of surface exposure and the exposure area size. The end result is the probability of a hailstone of a given size striking a given surface area in a given number of years. The maximum probable hailstone size is used as a convenient index of hail risk. The data upon which to base a prediction model are sparse at this time, covering few geographic locations; much of the information available is deficient in sampling consistency and/or sample size. For this reason, this report fully documents the derivation and use of the model for future applications, when more and better data are collected. The FORTRAN source code to calculate the risk model digitally is included in APPENDIX D. This model improves on previous work in: (1) the use of more thorough statistical procedures and a more rigorous accounting of storm severity; (2) a more thorough investigation into the two probability density distributions commonly used (Poisson and negative binomial) to describe hailday frequencies, and (3) an attempt to define more rigorously the distribution of hailstone sizes. A sensitivity analysis was performed and conclusions are drawn from the results.

  6. On the Influence of Global Warming on Atlantic Hurricane Frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, S. R.; Scaioni, M.; Marani, M.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, the possible connection between the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes to the climate change, mainly the variation in the Atlantic Ocean surface temperature has been investigated. The correlation between the observed hurricane frequency for different categories of hurricane's intensity and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been examined over the Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis Regions (ACR). The results suggest that in general, the frequency of hurricanes have a high correlation with SST. In particular, the frequency of extreme hurricanes with Category 5 intensity has the highest correlation coefficient (R = 0.82). In overall, the analyses in this work demonstrates the influence of the climate change condition on the Atlantic hurricanes and suggest a strong correlation between the frequency of extreme hurricanes and SST in the ACR.

  7. Urbanization may reduce the risk of frost damage to spring flowers: A case study of two shrub species in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gim, Hyeon-Ju; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Jinwon; Lee, Eun Ju

    2018-01-01

    Regional warming, owing to urbanization, leads to earlier spring phenological events and may expose plants to hard freeze damage. This study examined the influence of urbanization on the risk of frost damage to spring flowers in South Korea from 1973 to 2015. For the analysis period, we categorized 25 cities into two groups: those showing rapid population growth (rPG) ≥ 200,000, including 13 cities, and those showing no or decreased population growth (nPG), including 12 cities. We then investigated the time from the last frost dates (LFDs) in spring to the first flowering dates (FFDs) for each group. The rPG group experienced significant spring warming of 0.47°C per decade, resulting in earlier LFDs and FFDs. For this group, the advancement of LFD was more rapid than that of FFD, and the days between these two dates increased from 0.42 to 0.47 days per decade, implying a reduced risk of frost damage. Spring warming and the advancement of FFDs and LFDs were relatively small for the nPG group, and the LFDs were rather delayed. Consequently, the days between LFDs and FFDs were reduced from -1.05 to -1.67 days per decade, indicating an increased risk of frost damage. The contrasting changes in the frost-damage risk between the two city groups can be attributed to distinct urban warming at night, which makes the LFDs substantially earlier in the rPG group. Therefore, this study suggests that the warming associated with urbanization may lessen the risk of spring frost damage to plants in rapidly growing urban areas.

  8. Hurricane modification and adaptation in Miami-Dade County, Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, Kelly; Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry; Morgan, M Granger; Grossmann, Iris

    2012-01-17

    We investigate tropical cyclone wind and storm surge damage reduction for five areas along the Miami-Dade County coastline either by hardening buildings or by the hypothetical application of wind-wave pumps to modify storms. We calculate surge height and wind speed as functions of return period and sea surface temperature reduction by wind-wave pumps. We then estimate costs and economic losses with the FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model and census data on property at risk. All areas experience more surge damages for short return periods, and more wind damages for long periods. The return period at which the dominating hazard component switches depends on location. We also calculate the seasonal expected fraction of control damage for different scenarios to reduce damages. Surge damages are best reduced through a surge barrier. Wind damages are best reduced by a portfolio of techniques that, assuming they work and are correctly deployed, include wind-wave pumps.

  9. Assessment of mean annual flood damage using simple hydraulic modeling and Monte Carlo simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oubennaceur, K.; Agili, H.; Chokmani, K.; Poulin, J.; Marceau, P.

    2016-12-01

    Floods are the most frequent and the most damaging natural disaster in Canada. The issue of assessing and managing the risk related to this disaster has become increasingly crucial for both local and national authorities. Brigham, a municipality located in southern Quebec Province, is one of the heavily affected regions by this disaster because of frequent overflows of the Yamaska River reaching two to three times per year. Since Irene Hurricane which struck the region in 2011, causing considerable socio-economic damage, the implementation of mitigation measures has become a major priority for this municipality. To do this, a preliminary study to evaluate the risk to which this region is exposed is essential. Conventionally, approaches only based on the characterization of the hazard (e.g. floodplains extensive, flood depth) are generally adopted to study the risk of flooding. In order to improve the knowledge of this risk, a Monte Carlo simulation approach combining information on the hazard with vulnerability-related aspects has been developed. This approach integrates three main components: (1) hydrologic modelling aiming to establish a probability-discharge function which associate each measured discharge to its probability of occurrence (2) hydraulic modeling that aims to establish the relationship between the discharge and the water stage at each building (3) damage study that aims to assess the buildings damage using damage functions. The damage is estimated according to the water depth defined as the difference between the water level and the elevation of the building's first floor. The application of the proposed approach allows estimating the annual average cost of damage caused by floods on buildings. The obtained results will be useful for authorities to support their decisions on risk management and prevention against this disaster.

  10. Projecting the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests (1851-2100)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.

    2009-12-01

    In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Estimates of the carbon emissions resulting from single storms range as high as ~100 Tg C, an amount equivalent to the annual U.S. carbon sink in forest trees. Recent studies have estimated the historic regional carbon emissions from hurricane activity using an empirically based approach. Here, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by maps of mortality and damage based on historic hurricane tracks and future scenarios to predict the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests. Model estimates compare well to previous empirically based estimates, with mean annual biomass loss of 26 Tg C yr-1 (range 0 to ~225 Tg C yr-1) resulting from hurricanes during the period 1851-2000. Using the mechanistic model, we are able to include the effects of both disturbance and recovery on the net carbon flux. We find a regional carbon sink throughout much of the 20th century resulting from forest recovery following a peak in hurricane activity during the late 19th century exceeding biomass loss. Recent increased hurricane activity has resulted in the region becoming a net carbon source. For the future, several recent studies have linked increased sea surface temperatures expected with climate change to increased hurricane activity. Based on these relationships, we investigate a range of scenarios of future hurricane activity and find the potential for substantial increases in emissions from hurricane mortality and reductions in regional carbon stocks. In our scenario with the largest increase in hurricane activity, we find a 35% increase in area disturbed by 2100, but due to the reduction of standing biomass, only a 20% increase in biomass loss per year. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and

  11. New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina: An Unnatural Disaster?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, D.; Werner, B.; Kelso, A.

    2005-12-01

    Motivated by destruction in New Orleans following hurricane Katrina, we use a numerical model to explore how natural processes, economic development, hazard mitigation measures and policy decisions intertwine to produce long periods of quiescence punctuated by disasters of increasing magnitude. Physical, economic and policy dynamics are modeled on a grid representing the subsiding Mississippi Delta region surrounding New Orleans. Water flow and resulting sediment erosion and deposition are simulated in response to prescribed river floods and storms. Economic development operates on a limited number of commodities and services such as agricultural products, oil and chemical industries and port services, with investment and employment responding to both local conditions and global constraints. Development permitting, artificial levee construction and pumping are implemented by policy agents who weigh predicted economic benefits (tax revenue), mitigation costs and potential hazards. Economic risk is reduced by a combination of private insurance, federal flood insurance and disaster relief. With this model, we simulate the initiation and growth of New Orleans coupled with an increasing level of protection from a series of flooding events. Hazard mitigation filters out small magnitude events, but terrain and hydrological modifications amplify the impact of large events. In our model, "natural disasters" are the inevitable outcome of the mismatch between policy based on short-time-scale economic calculations and stochastic forcing by infrequent, high-magnitude flooding events. A comparison of the hazard mitigation response to river- and hurricane-induced flooding will be discussed. Supported by NSF Geology and Paleontology and the Andrew W Mellon Foundation.

  12. Effect of hurricanes and violent storms on salt marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, N.; Ganju, N. K.; Fagherazzi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  13. Preparing for a Hurricane: Prescription Medications

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2006-08-10

    What you should do to protect yourself and your family from a hurricane. As you evacuate, remember to take your prescription medicines with you.  Created: 8/10/2006 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 7/17/2008.

  14. Investigation of long-term hurricane activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, B.M.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach of applying numerical methods to model storm processes. A storm empirical track technique is utilized to simulate the full tracks of hurricanes, starting with their initial points over the sea and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations. The

  15. Wind and waves in extreme hurricanes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holthuijsen, L.H.; Powell, M.D.; Pietrzak, J.D.

    2012-01-01

    Waves breaking at the ocean surface are important to the dynamical, chemical and biological processes at the air-sea interface. The traditional view is that the white capping and aero-dynamical surface roughness increase with wind speed up to a limiting value. This view is fundamental to hurricane

  16. Fire management ramifications of Hurricane Hugo

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. M. Saveland; D. D. Wade

    1991-01-01

    Hurricane Hugo passed over the Francis Marion National Forest on September 22, 1989, removing almost 75 percent of the overstory. The radically altered fuel bed presented new and formidable challenges to fire managers. Tractor-plows, the mainstay of fire suppression, were rendered ineffective. The specter of wind-driven escaped burns with no effective means of ground...

  17. Hurricane Ike versus an Atomic Bomb

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Earl F.

    2013-01-01

    The destructive potential of one of nature's most destructive forces, the hurricane, is compared to one of human's most destructive devices, an atomic bomb. Both can create near absolute devastation at "ground zero". However, how do they really compare in terms of destructive energy? This discussion compares the energy, the…

  18. Climate Prediction Center - Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News ; Seasonal Climate Summary Archive The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The outlook is

  19. Transportation during and after Hurricane Sandy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-01

    "Hurricane Sandy demonstrated the strengths and limits of the transportation infrastructure in New York City and the surrounding region. As a result of the timely and thorough preparations by New York City and the MTA, along with the actions of city ...

  20. Evacuating the Area of a Hurricane

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2006-08-10

    If a hurricane warning is issued for your area, or authorities tell you to evacuate, take only essential items. If you have time, turn off gas, electricity, and water and disconnect appliances.  Created: 8/10/2006 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 10/10/2007.

  1. Economic impacts of hurricanes on forest owners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2010-01-01

    We present a conceptual model of the economic impacts of hurricanes on timber producers and consumers, offer a framework indicating how welfare impacts can be estimated using econometric estimates of timber price dynamics, and illustrate the advantages of using a welfare theoretic model, which includes (1) welfare estimates that are consistent with neo-classical...

  2. Elements of extreme wind modeling for hurricanes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Søren Ejling; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans; Kelly, Mark C.

    The report summarizes characteristics of the winds associated with Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes, Typhoons). It has been conducted by the authors across several years, from 2012-2015, to identify the processes and aspects that one should consider when building at useful computer support system...

  3. Hurricane Sandy Economic Impacts Assessment: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2017-08-07

    Economists use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to assess how economies react and self-organize after changes in policies, technology, and other exogenous shocks. CGE models are equation-based, empirically calibrated, and inspired by Neoclassical economic theory. The focus of this work was to validate the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) CGE model and apply it to the problem of assessing the economic impacts of severe events. We used the 2012 Hurricane Sandy event as our validation case. In particular, this work first introduces the model and then describes the validation approach and the empirical data available for studying the event of focus. Shocks to the model are then formalized and applied. Finally, model results and limitations are presented and discussed, pointing out both the model degree of accuracy and the assessed total damage caused by Hurricane Sandy.

  4. Diet-Induced Weight Loss Reduces DNA Damage and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Overweight/Obese Women with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Nayara Pereira; Santos, Ana Celly Souza dos; Costa, Eduardo Caldas; Azevedo, George Dantas; Damasceno, Débora Cristina; Fayh, Ana Paula Trussardi; Lemos, Telma Maria Araújo Moura

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to investigate the impact of following a diet to induce weight loss (500 kcal deficit per day) over DNA damage and cardiometabolic risk factors in women with overweight/obesity diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A study was conducted in Natal, RN, Brazil selecting overweight/obese (body mass index ≥25 and weight loss, decreased sexual hormone and cardiometabolic markers such as insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were verified In the multivariate regression analysis, quantitative insulin sensitivity check index and progesterone were responsible for the variation markers in DNA damage before the diet, losing its influence upon diet. DNA damage and the impact of cardiometabolic risk factors decreased after the intervention in women with PCOS, indicating the relevance of a nutritional approach in this group of patients. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  5. A Statistical Approach For Modeling Tropical Cyclones. Synthetic Hurricanes Generator Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-11

    This manuscript brie y describes a statistical ap- proach to generate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks to be used in risk evaluations. The Synthetic Hur- ricane Generator (SynHurG) model allows model- ing hurricane risk in the United States supporting decision makers and implementations of adaptation strategies to extreme weather. In the literature there are mainly two approaches to model hurricane hazard for risk prediction: deterministic-statistical approaches, where the storm key physical parameters are calculated using physi- cal complex climate models and the tracks are usually determined statistically from historical data; and sta- tistical approaches, where both variables and tracks are estimated stochastically using historical records. SynHurG falls in the second category adopting a pure stochastic approach.

  6. Oxidative damage markers are significantly associated with the carotid artery intima-media thickness after controlling for conventional risk factors of atherosclerosis in men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Ha Yoon

    Full Text Available This study aimed to assess the association between oxidative damage markers and carotid artery intima-media thickness (CIMT after controlling for conventional risk factors of atherosclerosis in multiple logistic regression models.Fifty-one case male participants (CIMT ≥ 0.9 mm were enrolled during their visits to Korean Genomic Rural Cohort Study of Wonju centers between May 1 and August 31, 2011, along with 51 control participants (CIMT < 0.9 mm selected using frequency matching by age group. The levels of oxidative damage markers, 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyquuanosine (8-OHdG, malondialdehyde (MDA, and 8-iso-prostaglandin F2α (Isoprostane, were measured. Conditional logistic regression models were used to evaluate relative relationships between the oxidative damage markers and the risk of high CIMT.The markers of oxidative lipid (Isoprostane and MDA and DNA (8-OHdG damage were associated with CIMT after controlling for the conventional risk factors, including age, low density lipoprotein, body mass index, smoking history, alcohol consumption, and metabolic syndrome (ORs [95% CI] for Isoprostane: 3rd tertile, 8.47 [2.59-27.67]; for MDA: 3rd tertile, 8.47 [2.59-27.67]; for 8-OHdG: 3rd tertile, 5.58 [1.79-17.33]. When all the oxidative damage markers were incorporated in the same logistic regression model, only Isoprostane was significantly related to CIMT (OR [95% CI]: 4.22 [1.31-13.53] in 2nd tertile and 14.21 [3.34-60.56] in 3rd tertile.In this nested case-control study, the oxidative damage markers of lipid and DNA were associated with CIMT even after controlling for the conventional risk factors of cardiovascular diseases.

  7. Risk of Damage to the Somatic Innervation of the Penis during the AdVanceProcedure: An Anatomical Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogewoning, Cornelis R C; Elzevier, Henk W; Pelger, Rob C M; Bekker, Milou D; DeRuiter, Marco C

    2015-08-01

    One of the methods to treat post radical prostatectomy stress urinary incontinence is the AdVance (American Medical Systems, Minnetonka, MN, USA) male sling procedure. During this procedure, the somatic innervation of the penis may be at risk for injury. Six AdVance procedures were performed in six donated bodies at the Anatomy and Embryology Department of the Leiden University Medical Centre. The pelves were dissected and the shortest distance between the sling and the dorsal nerve of the penis (DNP) was documented. The aim of this study was to describe the anatomical relation between the AdVance male sling and penile nerves based on the dissection of six adult male pelves. The AdVance male sling procedure was conducted in six donated male bodies. After placement, the pelves were dissected and the shortest distance between sling and the DNP was documented. The main outcome measure was the distance between the AdVance male sling and the DNP. The mean distance of the sling to the DNP was 4.1 mm and was found situated directly next to the nerve (distance 0 mm) in 4 out of 12 (33%) hemipelves. The distance of the sling to the obturator neurovascular bundle was 30 mm or more in all six bodies. Damage to the DNP caused by the AdVance male sling procedure appears to be an extremely rare complication, which has not been described in current literature. The proximity of the AdVance to the DNP could, however, pose a risk that should be taken into consideration by physicians and patients when opting for surgery. © 2015 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  8. Vasopressor use after initial damage control laparotomy increases risk for anastomotic disruption in the management of destructive colon injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Peter E; Nunn, Andrew M; Wormer, Blair A; Christmas, A Britton; Gibeault, Lindsay A; Green, John M; Sing, Ronald F

    2013-12-01

    Management of destructive colon injuries during damage control (DC) laparotomy is debated. The authors reviewed a single institution's experience with destructive colon injuries to identify risk factors for anastomotic failure after colon reconstruction. The authors identified all trauma patients sustaining destructive colon injuries between 2002 and 2011 from their medical center's trauma registry. Anastomotic leak was defined as suture or staple line disruption or enteral fistula formation. Of 171 identified patients, 68 had DC procedures, 41 (60%) had subsequent anastomoses performed during the same hospitalization, and 27 (40%) were diverted. The colon anastomotic leak rate in patients who underwent DC laparotomy was higher than in patients who were reconstructed at the primary operation in a non-DC setting (17% vs 6%, P = .09). The use of vasopressors after the initial DC operation more than quadrupled the leak rate to 50% (P = .02). Colonic anastomotic disruptions yield deadly consequences, and diversion rather than anastomosis should be used in patients who require vasopressor support after the initial DC procedure. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Necessity of countermeasures for hurricane, typhoon and cyclone in accordance with the progress of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narabayashi, Tadashi; Sugiyama, Kenichiro

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, according to the progress of global warming, hurricanes and typhoons getting bigger and bigger, about 20% increase per decade. Hurricanes and typhoons are given thermal energy from vaporizing steam from surface of sea water. Hurricane Sandy attacked New York on 22-29, Oct. 2012. Typhoon 26th attacked Ohshima, Oct. 2013, and Typhoon 30th attacked Philippine on Nov. 4-11. Tropical cyclone Phailin attacked India on Oct. 12, 2013. Its diameter was 2300km. They were all category 5. Human beings are now on the front of the natural disasters. We think the risk is higher than active faults that moves only several thousand years period. In the US, a nuclear power plant stopped its operation when a category 5 hurricane arrived nearby, which was monitored from a weather satellite. The countermeasures for tornado and tsunami will be effective for typhoon. NRA found the lack of description in the new regulatory guideline and they said the management plan should be considered by licensees. The Japan Society of Maintenology will start preparing the guideline for typhoon. (author)

  10. Use of outpatient mental health services by homeless veterans after hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Lisa M; Barnett, Scott; Hickling, Edward; Frahm, Kathryn; Campbell, Robert R; Olney, Ronald; Schinka, John A; Casey, Roger

    2013-05-01

    Little is known about the impact of hurricanes on people who are homeless at the time a disaster occurs. Although researchers have extensively studied the psychosocial consequences of disaster produced homelessness on the general population, efforts focused on understanding how homeless people fare have been limited to a few media reports and the gray literature. In the event of a hurricane, homeless veterans may be at increased risk for negative outcomes because of their cumulative vulnerabilities. Health care statistics consistently document that homeless veterans experience higher rates of medical, emotional, substance abuse, legal, and financial problems compared with the general population. This study used the 2004 to 2006 Veterans Health Administration (VHA) Outpatient Medical Dataset to examine the effects of hurricanes on use of outpatient mental health services by homeless veterans. Homeless veterans residing in hurricane-affected counties were significantly more likely to participate in group psychotherapy (32.4% vs. 13.4%, p < .002), but less likely to participate in individual 30-40-min sessions with medical evaluations (3.5% vs. 17.3%, p < .001). The study findings have implications for homeless programs and the provision of VHA mental health services to homeless veterans postdisaster. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  11. High-Amplitude Atlantic Hurricanes Produce Disparate Mortality in Small, Low-Income Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dresser, Caleb; Allison, Jeroan; Broach, John; Smith, Mary-Elise; Milsten, Andrew

    2016-12-01

    Hurricanes cause substantial mortality, especially in developing nations, and climate science predicts that powerful hurricanes will increase in frequency during the coming decades. This study examined the association of wind speed and national economic conditions with mortality in a large sample of hurricane events in small countries. Economic, meteorological, and fatality data for 149 hurricane events in 16 nations between 1958 and 2011 were analyzed. Mortality rate was modeled with negative binomial regression implemented by generalized estimating equations to account for variable population exposure, sequence of storm events, exposure of multiple islands to the same storm, and nonlinear associations. Low-amplitude storms caused little mortality regardless of economic status. Among high-amplitude storms (Saffir-Simpson category 4 or 5), expected mortality rate was 0.72 deaths per 100,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.16-1.28) for nations in the highest tertile of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) compared with 25.93 deaths per 100,000 people (95% CI: 13.30-38.55) for nations with low per capita GDP. Lower per capita GDP and higher wind speeds were associated with greater mortality rates in small countries. Excessive fatalities occurred when powerful storms struck resource-poor nations. Predictions of increasing storm amplitude over time suggest increasing disparity between death rates unless steps are taken to modify the risk profiles of poor nations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:832-837).

  12. What Happened to Our Environment and Mental Health as a Result of Hurricane Sandy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shao; Lu, Yi; Justino, John; Dong, Guanghui; Lauper, Ursula

    2016-06-01

    This study describes findings of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on environmental factors including power outages, air quality, water quality, and weather factors and how these affected mental health during the hurricane. An ecological study was conducted at the county level to describe changes in environmental factors-especially power outages-and their relationships to emergency department (ED) visits for mental health problems by use of a Poisson regression model. We found that many environmental hazards occurred as co-exposures during Hurricane Sandy in addition to flooding. Mental health ED visits corresponded with the peak of maximum daily power blackouts, with a 3-day lag, and were positively associated with power blackouts in Bronx (prevalence ratio [PR]: 8.82, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.27-61.42) and Queens (PR: 2.47, 95% CI: 1.05-5.82) counties. A possible dose-response relationship was found between the quantile of maximum blackout percentage and the risk of mental health in the Bronx. We found that multiple co-environmental hazards occurred during Hurricane Sandy, especially power blackouts that mediated this disaster's impacts. The effects of power outage on mental health had large geographic variations and were substantial, especially in communities with low sociodemographic status. These findings may provide new insights for future disaster response and preparedness efforts. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:314-319).

  13. MAPPING THE EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF SEVER FLOODING INDUCED BY HURRICANE IRMA WITH MULTI-TEMPORAL SENTINEL-1 SAR AND INSAR OBSERVATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Zhang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available During Hurricane Irma’s passage over Florida in September 2017, many sections of the state experienced heavy rain and sequent flooding. In order to drain water out of potential flooding zones and assess property damage, it is important to map the extent and magnitude of the flooded areas at various stages of the storm. We use Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR and Interferometric SAR (InSAR observations, acquired by Sentinel-1 before, during and after the hurricane passage, which enable us to evaluate surface condition during different stages of the hurricane. This study uses multi-temporal images acquired under dry condition before the hurricane to constrain the background backscattering signature. Flooded areas are detected when the backscattering during the hurricane is statistically significantly different from the average dry conditions. The detected changes can be either an increase or decrease of the backscattering, which depends on the scattering characteristics of the surface. In addition, water level change information in Palmdale, South Florida is extracted from an interferogram with the aid of a local water gauge as the reference. The results of our flooding analysis revealed that the majority of the study area in South Florida was flooded during Hurricane Irma.

  14. Homocysteine and the C677T Gene Polymorphism of Its Key Metabolic Enzyme MTHFR Are Risk Factors of Early Renal Damage in Hypertension in a Chinese Han Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Lin; Xu, Rui; Li, Guohua; Yao, Yucai; Li, Jiamin; Cong, Dehong; Xu, Xingshun; Zhang, Lihua

    2015-12-01

    The combined hyperhomocysteinemia condition is a feature of the Chinese hypertensive population. This study used the case-control method to investigate the association between plasma homocysteine and the C677T gene polymorphism of its key metabolic enzyme, 5, 10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR), and early renal damage in a hypertensive Chinese Han population.A total of 379 adult essential hypertensive patients were selected as the study subjects. The personal information, clinical indicators, and the C677T gene polymorphism of MTHFR were texted. This study used the urine microalbumin/urine creatinine ratio (UACR) as a grouping basis: the hypertension without renal damage group (NRD group) and the hypertension combined with early renal damage group (ERD group).Early renal damage in the Chinese hypertensive population was associated with body weight, systolic pressure, diastolic pressure, urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, cystatin C, uric acid, aldosterone, and glomerular filtration rate. The homocysteine level and the UACR in the TT genotype group were higher than those in the CC genotype group. The binary logistic regression analysis results showed that after sex and age were adjusted, the MTHFR C677T gene polymorphism was correlated with early renal damage in hypertension in both the recessive model and in the additive model.Plasma homocysteine and the C677T gene polymorphism of its key metabolic enzyme MTHFR might be independent risk factors of early renal damage in the hypertensive Chinese Han population.

  15. Oil spills and other issues in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita : an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, D.W.

    2006-01-01

    The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina revealed weaknesses in the command, control, communications, and information dissemination functions within a variety of emergency response systems. This paper gave an outline of clean-up procedures involving hazardous materials. To date, clean-up crews have disposed of 8.0 million tonnes of an estimated 22.0 million tonnes of debris. The clean-up involved more than 1.3 million containerized hazardous materials; more than 230,000 damaged white goods; and nearly 43,000 damaged electronic goods. More than 3,400 samples of water, soil and air have been collected. Nearly 75 chemistry laboratories in schools have been inspected, and an additional 1500 emergency assessments of potential chemical releases were investigated. The floodwaters carried nearly 4.1 million litres of oil from a Chalmette refinery. Between September and the end of 2005, the Louisiana Oil Spill Coordinator's Office logged in 81 spill events in southwest Louisiana involving 22,000 bbls of crude. Six major, 3 medium and 131 minor events have occurred in southeast Louisiana. More than 3000 offshore platforms were shut down or damaged during the 2005 hurricane season. At least 115 platforms were destroyed and 52 were damaged. Onshore spills of concern included incidents at Murphy Oil Refinery; Bass Enterprise Production Company; Chevron at Port Fourchon; Venice Energy Services Company; Shell Pipeline; and Sundown Energy. It was concluded work done by the spill community will result in the development of more effective response plans. 23 refs

  16. Petroleum and hazardous material releases from industrial facilities associated with Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santella, Nicholas; Steinberg, Laura J; Sengul, Hatice

    2010-04-01

    Hurricane Katrina struck an area dense with industry, causing numerous releases of petroleum and hazardous materials. This study integrates information from a number of sources to describe the frequency, causes, and effects of these releases in order to inform analysis of risk from future hurricanes. Over 200 onshore releases of hazardous chemicals, petroleum, or natural gas were reported. Storm surge was responsible for the majority of petroleum releases and failure of storage tanks was the most common mechanism of release. Of the smaller number of hazardous chemical releases reported, many were associated with flaring from plant startup, shutdown, or process upset. In areas impacted by storm surge, 10% of the facilities within the Risk Management Plan (RMP) and Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) databases and 28% of SIC 1311 facilities experienced accidental releases. In areas subject only to hurricane strength winds, a lower fraction (1% of RMP and TRI and 10% of SIC 1311 facilities) experienced a release while 1% of all facility types reported a release in areas that experienced tropical storm strength winds. Of industrial facilities surveyed, more experienced indirect disruptions such as displacement of workers, loss of electricity and communication systems, and difficulty acquiring supplies and contractors for operations or reconstruction (55%), than experienced releases. To reduce the risk of hazardous material releases and speed the return to normal operations under these difficult conditions, greater attention should be devoted to risk-based facility design and improved prevention and response planning.

  17. Hurricane coastal flood analysis using multispectral spectral images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogashawara, I.; Ferreira, C.; Curtarelli, M. P.

    2013-12-01

    Flooding is one of the main hazards caused by extreme events such as hurricanes and tropical storms. Therefore, flood maps are a crucial tool to support policy makers, environmental managers and other government agencies for emergency management, disaster recovery and risk reduction planning. However traditional flood mapping methods rely heavily on the interpolation of hydrodynamic models results, and most recently, the extensive collection of field data. These methods are time-consuming, labor intensive, and costly. Efficient and fast response alternative methods should be developed in order to improve flood mapping, and remote sensing has been proved as a valuable tool for this application. Our goal in this paper is to introduce a novel technique based on spectral analysis in order to aggregate knowledge and information to map coastal flood areas. For this purpose we used the Normalized Diference Water Index (NDWI) which was derived from two the medium resolution LANDSAT/TM 5 surface reflectance product from the LANDSAT climate data record (CDR). This product is generated from specialized software called Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS). We used the surface reflectance products acquired before and after the passage of Hurricane Ike for East Texas in September of 2008. We used as end member a classification of estimated flooded area based on the United States Geological Survey (USGS) mobile storm surge network that was deployed for Hurricane Ike. We used a dataset which consisted of 59 water levels recording stations. The estimated flooded area was delineated interpolating the maximum surge in each location using a spline with barriers method with high tension and a 30 meter Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the National Elevation Dataset (NED). Our results showed that, in the flooded area, the NDWI values decreased after the hurricane landfall on average from 0.38 to 0.18 and the median value decreased from 0.36 to 0.2. However

  18. ON THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING ON ATLANTIC HURRICANE FREQUENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Hosseini

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the possible connection between the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes to the climate change, mainly the variation in the Atlantic Ocean surface temperature has been investigated. The correlation between the observed hurricane frequency for different categories of hurricane’s intensity and Sea Surface Temperature (SST has been examined over the Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis Regions (ACR. The results suggest that in general, the frequency of hurricanes have a high correlation with SST. In particular, the frequency of extreme hurricanes with Category 5 intensity has the highest correlation coefficient (R = 0.82. In overall, the analyses in this work demonstrates the influence of the climate change condition on the Atlantic hurricanes and suggest a strong correlation between the frequency of extreme hurricanes and SST in the ACR.

  19. Data Gap Analysis and Damage Case Studies: Risk Analyses from Construction and Demolition Debris Landfills and Recycling Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report presents an evaluation of construction and demolition (C&D) debris management in the US to update and expand upon the previous set of data to include information on more recent cases of damage and potential impacts and expand the breadth of damages beyond groundwater a...

  20. Fiji's worst natural disaster: the 1931 hurricane and flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, Stephen W; Blong, Russell J

    2010-07-01

    At least 225 people in the Fiji Islands died as a result of the 1931 hurricane and flood, representing the largest loss of life from a natural disaster in Fiji's recent history. This paper explores the causes of disaster and the potential for recurrence. The disaster occurred because a rare event surprised hundreds of people-especially recently settled Indian farmers-occupying highly exposed floodplains in north-west Viti Levu island. The likelihood of a flood disaster of such proportions occurring today has been diminished by changed settlement patterns and building materials; however, a trend towards re-occupancy of floodplains, sometimes in fragile dwellings, is exposing new generations to flood risks. The contribution of this paper to the global hazards literature is set out in three sections: the ethnicity, gender and age of flood fatalities; the naturalness of disasters; and the merit of choice and constraint as explanations for patterns of vulnerability.

  1. Dying to play video games: carbon monoxide poisoning from electrical generators used after hurricane Ike.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fife, Caroline E; Smith, Latisha A; Maus, Erik A; McCarthy, James J; Koehler, Michelle Z; Hawkins, Trina; Hampson, Neil B

    2009-06-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is common after major storms because of loss of electrical power and use of alternate fuel sources for heat and electricity. In past epidemics of hurricane-related CO poisoning, the source has typically been gasoline-powered electrical generators. Although it is typically believed that generators were used to power air conditioning and refrigeration, this report demonstrates an unsuspected reason for their use. After Hurricane Ike's landfall in September 2008, major power outages were associated with an epidemic of CO poisoning from electrical generators, as expected. Staff at Memorial Hermann Hospital-Texas Medical Center treated or telephone-triaged cases from the Houston area. A review of the details of those cases forms the basis of this report. Memorial Hermann Hospital-Texas Medical Center staff treated or triaged 37 individuals exposed to CO from gasoline-powered electrical generators in 13 incidents in the first 36 hours after landfall of the hurricane. Notably, 54% (20 of 37) of the patients were under the age of 18 years. Symptoms ranged from mild to severe, with 1 child dying at the scene. Eleven patients were treated with hyperbaric oxygen. Among 9 incidents in which the reason for generator use was determined, 5 were due to generators powering video games or televisions to watch movies or programs. These 5 incidents in which video games were being powered accounted for 75% (15 of 20) of the pediatric poisonings. Generator-related CO poisoning is indeed common during power outages after hurricanes. However, generators are commonly being used to provide electricity to power entertainment devices for children, such as video games. Additional public education about CO risk is needed, perhaps directed at older children and teenagers through the schools in regions susceptible to hurricanes.

  2. Rebuilding Emergency Care After Hurricane Sandy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, David C; Smith, Silas W; McStay, Christopher M; Portelli, Ian; Goldfrank, Lewis R; Husk, Gregg; Shah, Nirav R

    2014-04-09

    A freestanding, 911-receiving emergency department was implemented at Bellevue Hospital Center during the recovery efforts after Hurricane Sandy to compensate for the increased volume experienced at nearby hospitals. Because inpatient services at several hospitals remained closed for months, emergency volume increased significantly. Thus, in collaboration with the New York State Department of Health and other partners, the Health and Hospitals Corporation and Bellevue Hospital Center opened a freestanding emergency department without on-site inpatient care. The successful operation of this facility hinged on key partnerships with emergency medical services and nearby hospitals. Also essential was the establishment of an emergency critical care ward and a system to monitor emergency department utilization at affected hospitals. The results of this experience, we believe, can provide a model for future efforts to rebuild emergency care capacity after a natural disaster such as Hurricane Sandy. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;0:1-4).

  3. Modeling hurricane effects on mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.

    1997-01-01

    Mangrove ecosystems are at their most northern limit along the coastline of Florida and in isolated areas of the gulf coast in Louisiana and Texas. Mangroves are marine-based forests that have adapted to colonize and persist in salty intertidal waters. Three species of mangrove trees are common to the United States, black mangrove (Avicennia germinans), white mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa), and red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle). Mangroves are highly productive ecosystems and provide valuable habitat for fisheries and shorebirds. They are susceptible to lightning and hurricane disturbance, both of which occur frequently in south Florida. Climate change studies predict that, while these storms may not become more frequent, they may become more intense with warming sea temperatures. Sea-level rise alone has the potential for increasing the severity of storm surge, particularly in areas where coastal habitats and barrier shorelines are rapidly deteriorating. Given this possibility, U.S. Geological Survey researchers modeled the impact of hurricanes on south Florida mangrove communities.

  4. Safety and effectiveness of a polyvinyl alcohol barrier in reducing risks of vascular tissue damage during anterior spinal revision surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffords, Paul; Li, Jinsheng; Panchal, Deepal; Denoziere, Guilhem; Fetterolf, Donald

    2012-05-01

    This study was conducted as a controlled, prospective investigation to show the safety and efficacy of a polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) device in a sheep model. To evaluate the ability of a permanent PVA hydrogel barrier to reduce the risk of potential vessel damage during anterior vertebral revision surgery, to provide a nonadhesive barrier at the surgical site, and to create a surgical revision plane of dissection. The development of scar tissue and adhesions presents a significant postoperative problem in spine surgery, where adhesion involvement of overlying structures can cause pain, neurovascular complications, and present a difficult surgical environment during revisions. The devices were implanted onto the ventral surface of exposed lumbar intervertebral discs using an anterolateral approach. One disc separated from the study site was also exposed to serve as a control. Three sheep each were then evaluated with an explant procedure at 30 and 90 days. Extensive sampling was undertaken to evaluate gross anatomic, micropathologic, and biochemical environments and properties of the device. The structural properties and appearance of the device remained intact at both 30 and 90 days. The material remained flexible, hydrophilic, and soft, without visible resorption or decomposition. The material was well tolerated by the animal, with minimal histologic signs of inflammation or rejection. Tissue planes were easily able to be localized by the surgeon attempting to locate the prior surgical site at the time of resection. The PVA vessel shield effectively protected the structures overlying the sheep spine during revision, providing a clear dissection plane for resection at repeat surgery. The overlying structures separated from the previous surgical site with no adhesion, and allowed safe separation of adjacent tissues without the use of sharp dissection.

  5. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Temporary Emergency Impact Aid Provided Education Support for Displaced Students. Report to the Congressional Requesters. GAO-11-839

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, George A.

    2011-01-01

    In August and September 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated large portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast, resulting in nearly 2,000 deaths and severe damage to 305,000 houses and apartments. Thousands of families relocated to communities throughout the United States and enrolled their children in local public or private schools. Some families…

  6. Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 1 - Reconstruction of Hurricane Harvey Flooding for Harris County, TX using a GPU-accelerated 2D flood model for post-flood hazard analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalyanapu, A. J.; Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey that made landfall in the southern Texas this August is one of the most destructive hurricanes during the 2017 hurricane season. During its active period, many areas in coastal Texas region received more than 40 inches of rain. This downpour caused significant flooding resulting in about 77 casualties, displacing more than 30,000 people, inundating hundreds of thousands homes and is currently estimated to have caused more than $70 billion in direct damage. One of the significantly affected areas is Harris County where the city of Houston, TX is located. Covering over two HUC-8 drainage basins ( 2702 mi2), this county experienced more than 80% of its annual average rainfall during this event. This study presents an effort to reconstruct flooding caused by extreme rainfall due to Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. This computationally intensive task was performed at a 30-m spatial resolution using a rapid flood model called Flood2D-GPU, a graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated model, on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) Titan Supercomputer. For this task, the hourly rainfall estimates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV Quantitative Precipitation Estimate were fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and Routing Application for Parallel computation of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to estimate flow hydrographs at 69 locations for Flood2D-GPU simulation. Preliminary results of the simulation including flood inundation extents, maps of flood depths and inundation duration will be presented. Future efforts will focus on calibrating and validating the simulation results and assessing the flood damage for better understanding the impacts made by Hurricane Harvey.

  7. Family and peer social support and their links to psychological distress among hurricane-exposed minority youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Donice M; Weems, Carl F

    2014-07-01

    Experiencing a disaster such as a hurricane places youth at a heightened risk for psychological distress such as symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression. Social support may contribute to resilience following disasters, but the interrelations of different types of support, level of exposure, and different symptoms among youth is not well understood. This study examined associations among family and peer social support, level of hurricane exposure, and their links to psychological distress using both a large single-time assessment sample (N = 1,098) as well as a longitudinal sample followed over a 6-month period (n = 192). Higher levels of hurricane exposure were related to lower levels of social support from family and peers. Higher levels of family and peer social support demonstrated both concurrent and longitudinal associations with lower levels of psychological distress, with associations varying by social support source and psychological distress outcome. Findings also suggested that the protective effects of high peer social support may be diminished by high hurricane exposure. The results of this study further our understanding of the role of social support in hurricane-exposed youths' emotional functioning and point to the potential importance of efforts to bolster social support following disasters.

  8. Impact of climate change, seedling type and provenance on the risk of damage to Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) seedlings in Sweden due to early summer frosts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langvall, Ola (Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Unit for Field-based Forest Research, Asa Forest Research Station, Lammhult (Sweden))

    2011-04-15

    A model including site-specific microclimate-affecting properties of a forest regeneration area together with seedling characteristics was used to evaluate the accumulated risk of frost damage to Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) seedlings. Climate change in Sweden was simulated on the basis of the regional climate model RCA3. The daily average temperature, the driving factor for bud burst in the model, was adjusted using the difference between the mean of the climate model data for the years 1961-1990 and 2036-2065. The model was run for a highly frost prone, clear-cut site in which bare-rooted Norway spruce seedlings of mid-Swedish provenance were planted. Alternate runs were conducted with data for containerized seedlings and seedlings of Belarusian origin. The study showed that bud burst will occur at earlier dates throughout Sweden in the period 2036-2065 if the climate changes according to either of the climate scenarios examined, compared to the reference period 1961-1990. Furthermore, the risk of damage to Norway spruce seedlings as a result of frost events during summer will increase in southern Sweden and be unaffected or decrease in northern Sweden. The risk of frost damage was exacerbated in containerized seedlings, while the risk was lower for the seedlings of Belarusian provenance when compared with bare-rooted seedlings or seedlings of mid-Swedish origin

  9. Challenges in estimating the health impact of Hurricane Sandy using macro-level flood data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieberman-Cribbin, W.; Liu, B.; Schneider, S.; Schwartz, R.; Taioli, E.

    2016-12-01

    Background: Hurricane Sandy caused extensive physical and economic damage but the long-term health impacts are unknown. Flooding is a central component of hurricane exposure, influencing health through multiple pathways that unfold over months after flooding recedes. This study assesses concordance in Federal Emergency Management (FEMA) and self-reported flood exposure after Hurricane Sandy to elucidate discrepancies in flood exposure assessments. Methods: Three meter resolution New York State flood data was obtained from the FEMA Modeling Task Force Hurricane Sandy Impact Analysis. FEMA data was compared to self-reported flood data obtained through validated questionnaires from New York City and Long Island residents following Sandy. Flooding was defined as both dichotomous and continuous variables and analyses were performed in SAS v9.4 and ArcGIS 10.3.1. Results: There was a moderate agreement between FEMA and self-reported flooding (Kappa statistic 0.46) and continuous (Spearman's correlation coefficient 0.50) measures of flood exposure. Flooding was self-reported and recorded by FEMA in 23.6% of cases, while agreement between the two measures on no flooding was 51.1%. Flooding was self-reported but not recorded by FEMA in 8.5% of cases, while flooding was not self-reported but indicated by FEMA in 16.8% of cases. In this last instance, 84% of people (173/207; 83.6%) resided in an apartment (no flooding reported). Spatially, the most concordance resided in the interior of New York City / Long Island, while the greatest areas of discordance were concentrated in the Rockaway Peninsula and Long Beach, especially among those living in apartments. Conclusions: There were significant discrepancies between FEMA and self-reported flood data. While macro-level FEMA flood data is a relatively less expensive and faster way to provide exposure estimates spanning larger geographic areas affected by Hurricane Sandy than micro-level estimates from cohort studies, macro

  10. Positive Traits versus Previous Trauma: Racially Different Correlates with PTSD Symptoms among Hurricane Katrina-Rita Volunteers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ai, Amy L.; Plummer, Carol; Kanno, Hanae; Heo, Grace; Appel, Hoa B.; Simon, Cassandra E.; Spigner, Clarence

    2011-01-01

    This study compared risks and protective factors for acquiring symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) between African-American (n = 299) and European-American (n = 206) student volunteers 3 months after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (H-KR). Respondents retrospectively provided information on peritraumatic emotional reactions and previous…

  11. An analysis of the synoptic and dynamical characteristics of hurricane Sandy (2012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varlas, George; Papadopoulos, Anastasios; Katsafados, Petros

    2018-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy affected the Caribbean Islands and the Northeastern United States in October 2012 and caused 233 fatalities, severe rainfalls, floods, electricity blackouts, and 75 billion U.S. dollars in damages. In this study, the synoptic and dynamical characteristics that led to the formation of the hurricane are investigated. The system was driven by the interaction between the polar jet displacement and the subtropical jet stream. In particular, Sandy was initially formed as a tropical depression system over the Caribbean Sea and the unusually warm sea drove its intensification. The interaction between a rapidly approaching trough from the northwest and the stagnant ridge over the Atlantic Ocean drove Sandy to the northeast coast of United States. To better understand the dynamical characteristics and the mechanisms that triggered Sandy, a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model has been used. Model results indicate that the surface heat fluxes and the moisture advection enhanced the convective available potential energy, increased the low-level convective instability, and finally deepened the hurricane. Moreover, the upper air conditions triggered the low-level frontogenesis and increased the asymmetry of the system which finally affected its trajectory.

  12. Nephrologic Impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in Areas Not Directly Affected.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossabhoy, Neville R; Qadri, Mashood; Beal, Lauren M

    2015-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita resulted in enormous loss of life and disrupted the delivery of health care in areas affected by them. In causing mass movements of patients, natural disasters can overwhelm the resources of nephrology communities in areas not suffering direct damage. The following largely personal account evaluates the impact these hurricanes had upon the nephrology community, patients and health care providers alike, in areas not directly affected by the storms. Mass evacuation of hundreds of dialysis patients to surrounding areas overwhelmed the capacity of local hemodialysis centers. Non-availability of medical records in patients arriving without a supply of their routine medications led to confusion and sub-optimal treatment of conditions such as hypertension and congestive heart failure. Availability of cadaveric organs for transplantation was reduced in the surrounding areas, as the usual lines of communication and transportation were severed for several weeks. All of these issues led to prolong waiting times for patients on the transplant list. The hurricanes severely disrupted usual supply lines of medications to hospitals; certain rare conditions may be seen in higher numbers as a result of the shortages induced. We present the interesting surge in cases of acute kidney injury secondary to use of intravenous immune globulin.

  13. Geomorphic and ecological effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on coastal Louisiana marsh communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piazza, Sarai C.; Steyer, Gregory D.; Cretini, Kari F.; Sasser, Charles E.; Visser, Jenneke M.; Holm, Guerry O.; Sharp, Leigh A.; Evers, D. Elaine; Meriwether, John R.

    2011-01-01

    fresh, brackish/ intermediate, and saline marshes. In fresh marshes, the mechanism of hurricane influence varied across the landscape. In the western region, saltwater storm surge inundated freshwater marshes and remained for weeks, effectively causing damage that reset the vegetation community. This is in contrast to the direct physical disturbance of the storm surge in the eastern region, which flipped and relocated marsh mats, thereby stressing the vegetation communities and providing an opportunity for disturbance species to colonize. In the brackish/intermediate marsh, disturbance species took advantage of the opportunity provided by shifting species composition caused by physical and saltwater-induced perturbations, although this shift is likely to be short lived. Saline marsh sites were not negatively impacted to a severe degree by the hurricanes. Species composition of vegetation in saline marshes was not affected, and sediment deposition appeared to increase vegetative productivity. The coastal landscape of Louisiana is experiencing high rates of land loss resulting from natural and anthropogenic causes and is experiencing subsidence rates greater than 10.0 millimeters per year (mm yr-1); therefore, it is important to understand how hurricanes influence sedimentation and soil properties. We document long-term vertical accretion rates and accumulation rates of organic matter, bulk density, carbon and nitrogen. Analyses using caesium-137 to calculate long-term vertical accretion rates suggest that accretion under impounded conditions is less than in nonimpounded conditions in the brackish marsh of the chenier plain. Our data also support previous studies indicating that accumulation rates of organic matter explain much of the variability associated with vertical accretion in brackish/intermediate and saline marshes. In fresh marshes, more of the variability associated with vertical accretion was explained by mineral accumulation than in the other mars

  14. Possible effects of the hurricane Gudrun on the regional Swedish forest energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjoerheden, Rolf

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a snapshot speculative analysis of some possible effects of the massive windthrow in south Sweden on January 8-9, 2005. Hurricane Gudrun damaged buildings and blocked roads, making large areas inaccessible except by helicopter. Electricity and telecommunications were shambolic. Around 70 million cubic metres were windthrown, equalling a 'normal' Swedish annual felling-a gross value exceeding EUR20,000,000,000. The paper presents the subsequent restoration work that has placed a special focus on the forest sector. In south Sweden, logging work will last for a couple of years. The roundwood market will be severely strained. For individual forest owners, the economic effects of the storm are often disastrous. To ensure that forest owners will retrieve at least part of the pre-storm forest value, restoration aims at the salvaging of maximum value. Sawmills try to store the most valuable timber for years to come, decreasing the risk of painful capacity adjustments and protecting export opportunities. Forest fuel value is low compared to sawlogs and pulpwood. Thus, the forest energy sector has received little attention. Forest chippers normally contribute important marginal quantities of wood fuels, but since no logging residues will be harvested from the windthrown forests for a period of 2-3 years, they are put out of business and may disappear from the market. Heating and power plants will receive an abundance of industrial by-products in the coming 2-3 years, followed by a period of expected shortage of woody biomass for energy production. With few forest chippers left, the situation will be troublesome. (author)

  15. Terrestrial Lidar Datasets of New Orleans, Louisiana, Levee Failures from Hurricane Katrina, August 29, 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Brian D.; Kayen, Robert; Minasian, Diane L.; Reiss, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina made landfall with the northern Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005, as one of the strongest hurricanes on record. The storm damage incurred in Louisiana included a number of levee failures that led to the inundation of approximately 85 percent of the metropolitan New Orleans area. Whereas extreme levels of storm damage were expected from such an event, the catastrophic failure of the New Orleans levees prompted a quick mobilization of engineering experts to assess why and how particular levees failed. As part of this mobilization, civil engineering members of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) performed terrestrial lidar topographic surveys at major levee failures in the New Orleans area. The focus of the terrestrial lidar effort was to obtain precise measurements of the ground surface to map soil displacements at each levee site, the nonuniformity of levee height freeboard, depth of erosion where scour occurred, and distress in structures at incipient failure. In total, we investigated eight sites in the New Orleans region, including both earth and concrete floodwall levee breaks. The datasets extend from the 17th Street Canal in the Orleans East Bank area to the intersection of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) with the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO) in the New Orleans East area. The lidar scan data consists of electronic files containing millions of surveyed points. These points characterize the topography of each levee's postfailure or incipient condition and are available for download through online hyperlinks. The data serve as a permanent archive of the catastrophic damage of Hurricane Katrina on the levee systems of New Orleans. Complete details of the data collection, processing, and georeferencing methodologies are provided in this report to assist in the visualization and analysis of the data by future users.

  16. A Coupled Community-Level Assessment of Social and Physical Vulnerability to Hurricane Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. H.; Sutley, E. J.; Chowdhury, A. G.; Hamideh, S.

    2017-12-01

    A significant portion of the U.S. building inventory exists in hurricane- and flood-prone regions. The accompanying storm surge and rising water levels often result in the inundation of residential homes, particularly those occupied by low income households and forcing displacement. In order to mitigate potential damages, a popular design technique is to elevate the structure using piers or piles to above the base flood elevation. This is observed for single-family and multi-family homes, including manufactured homes and post-disaster temporary housing, albeit at lower elevations. Although this design alleviates potential flood damage, it affects the wind-structure interaction by subjecting the structure to higher wind speeds due to its increased height and also having a path for the wind to pass underneath the structure potentially creating new vulnerabilities to wind loading. The current ASCE 7 Standard (2016) does not include a methodology for addressing the modified aerodynamics and estimating wind loads for elevated structures, and thus the potential vulnerability during high wind events is unaccounted for in design. Using experimentally measured wind pressures on elevated and non-elevated residential building models, tax data, and census data, a coupled vulnerability assessment is performed at the community-level. Galveston, Texas is selected as the case study community. Using the coupled assessment model, a hindcast of 2008 Hurricane Ike is used for predicting physical damage and household dislocation. The predicted results are compared with the actual outcomes of the 2008 hurricane disaster. Recommendations are made (1) for code adoption based on the experimentally measured wind loads, and (2) for mitigation actions and policies that would could decrease population dislocation and promote recovery.

  17. Ionizing radiation-induced DNA damage and repair as a potential biomarker in biodosimetry, cancer risk analysis and for prediction of radiotherapy induced toxicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satish Rao, B.S.

    2017-01-01

    Lymphocytes isolated from peripheral blood from 100 healthy individuals, 232 cancer patients (cervical, breast cancer and head and neck cancer) irradiated in vitro or in vivo were used for measuring DNA damage and repair. The microscopic method of the γ-H2AX assay was adopted to elucidate the significance of DSB in biodosimetry, cancer risk susceptibility, and normal tissue toxicity prediction. We validated the use of H2AX assay in early triage biodosimetry by using lymphocytes from cervical cancer patients exposed to radiotherapy. Further, the basal and residual damage was significantly higher in cancer individuals compared to the healthy individuals. In cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy, we could able to show the increase in normal tissue toxicity with decreased DSB repair capacity. In conclusion this study indicates the DSB estimation by γ-H2AX foci analysis can serve as a tool to understand the triage of radiation exposed individuals, identifying individuals at cancer risk and normal tissue toxicity

  18. Examining Hurricane Track Length and Stage Duration Since 1980

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fandrich, K. M.; Pennington, D.

    2017-12-01

    Each year, tropical systems impact thousands of people worldwide. Current research shows a correlation between the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and the changing climate. However, little is known about other prominent hurricane features. This includes information about hurricane track length (the total distance traveled from tropical depression through a hurricane's final category assignment) and how this distance may have changed with time. Also unknown is the typical duration of a hurricane stage, such as tropical storm to category one, and if the time spent in each stage has changed in recent decades. This research aims to examine changes in hurricane stage duration and track lengths for the 319 storms in NOAA's National Ocean Service Hurricane Reanalysis dataset that reached Category 2 - 5 from 1980 - 2015. Based on evident ocean warming, it is hypothesized that a general increase in track length with time will be detected, thus modern hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than past hurricanes. It is also expected that stage durations are decreasing with time so that hurricanes mature faster than in past decades. For each storm, coordinates are acquired at 4-times daily intervals throughout its duration and track lengths are computed for each 6-hour period. Total track lengths are then computed and storms are analyzed graphically and statistically by category for temporal track length changes. The stage durations of each storm are calculated as the time difference between two consecutive stages. Results indicate that average track lengths for Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes are increasing through time. These findings show that these hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than earlier Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes. In contrast, average track lengths for Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes are decreasing through time, showing less distance traveled than earlier decades. Stage durations for all Cat 2, 4 and 5 storms decrease through the decades but Cat 3 storms show a

  19. Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms in Noncoding Regions of Rad51C Do Not Change the Risk of Unselected Breast Cancer but They Modulate the Level of Oxidative Stress and the DNA Damage Characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gresner, Peter; Gromadzinska, Jolanta; Jablonska, Ewa

    2014-01-01

    affect the unselected BrC risk. Contrary to this, carriers of rs12946522, rs16943176, rs12946397 and rs17222691 rare-alleles were found to present significantly increased level of blood plasma TBARS compared to respective wild-type homozygotes (p... decreased fraction of oxidatively generated DNA damage (34% of total damaged DNA) in favor of DNA strand breakage, with no effect on total DNA damage, unlike respective wild-types, among which more evenly distributed proportions between oxidatively damaged DNA (48% of total DNA damage) and DNA strand...

  20. Risk-averse decision-making for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability, high-consequence events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Eun Jeong; Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative analysis and assessment of risk to civil infrastructure has two components: probability of a potentially damaging event and consequence of damage, measured in terms of financial or human losses. Decision models that have been utilized during the past three decades take into account the probabilistic component rationally, but address decision-maker attitudes toward consequences and risk only to a limited degree. The application of models reflecting these attitudes to decisions involving low-probability, high-consequence events that may impact civil infrastructure requires a fundamental understanding of risk acceptance attitudes and how they affect individual and group choices. In particular, the phenomenon of risk aversion may be a significant factor in decisions for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability events with severe consequences, such as earthquakes, hurricanes or floods. This paper utilizes cumulative prospect theory to investigate the role and characteristics of risk-aversion in assurance of structural safety.

  1. The SAFRR tsunami scenario-physical damage in California: Chapter E in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Byers, William; Dykstra, David; Lim, Amy; Lynett, Patrick; Ratliff, Jaime; Scawthorn, Charles; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick

    2013-01-01

    his chapter attempts to depict a single realistic outcome of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario in terms of physical damage to and recovery of various aspects of the built environment in California. As described elsewhere in this report, the tsunami is generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake seaward of the Alaska Peninsula on the Semidi Sector of the Alaska–Aleutian Subduction Zone, 495 miles southwest of Anchorage, at 11:50 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) on Thursday March 27, 2014, and arriving at the California coast between 4:00 and 5:40 p.m. (depending on location) the same day. Although other tsunamis could have locally greater impact, this source represents a substantial threat to the state as a whole. One purpose of this chapter is to help operators and users of coastal assets throughout California to develop emergency plans to respond to a real tsunami. Another is to identify ways that operators or owners of these assets can think through options for reducing damage before a future tsunami. A third is to inform the economic analyses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario. And a fourth is to identify research needs to better understand the possible consequences of a tsunami on these assets. The asset classes considered here include the following: Piers, cargo, buildings, and other assets at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Large vessels in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Marinas and small craft Coastal buildings Roads and roadway bridges Rail, railway bridges, and rolling stock Agriculture Fire following tsunami Each asset class is examined in a subsection of this chapter. In each subsection, we generally attempt to offer a historical review of damage. We characterize and quantify the assets exposed to loss and describe the modes of damage that have been observed in past tsunamis or are otherwise deemed likely to occur in the SAFRR tsunami scenario. Where practical, we offer a mathematical model of the

  2. Avifauna response to hurricanes: regional changes in community similarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Anna M. Pidgeon; Thomas P. Albright; Patrick D. Culbert; Murray K. Clayton; Curtis H. Flather; Chengquan Huang; Jeffrey G. Masek; Volker C. Radeloff

    2010-01-01

    Global climate models predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as hurricanes, which may abruptly alter ecological processes in forests and thus affect avian diversity. Developing appropriate conservation measures necessitates identifying patterns of avifauna response to hurricanes. We sought to answer two questions: (1) does...

  3. Long-term response of Caribbean palm forests to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariel Lugo; J.L. Frangi

    2016-01-01

    We studied the response of Prestoea montana (Sierra Palm, hereafter Palm) brakes and a Palm floodplain forest to hurricanes in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Over a span of 78 years, 3 hurricanes passed over the study sites for which we have 64 years of measurements for Palm brakes and 20 years for the Palm floodplain forest. For each stand, species...

  4. Effects of Hurricane Hugo: Mental Health Workers and Community Members.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzekari, Louis H.; And Others

    This paper reports the effects of Hurricane Hugo on mental health workers and indigenous community members. The response and perceptions of mental health staff from the South Carolina Department of Mental Health (Go Teams) from areas unaffected by the hurricane were compared and contrasted with those of a subsequent Hugo Outreach Support Team…

  5. Retention of Displaced Students after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coco, Joshua Christian

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to investigate the strategies that university leaders implemented to improve retention of displaced students in the aftermaths of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The universities that participated in this study admitted displaced students after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. This study utilized a qualitative…

  6. Resilience of Professional Counselors Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Simone F.; Lawson, Gerard

    2013-01-01

    Professional counselors who provided services to those affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita completed the K6+ (screen for severe mental illness), the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory, and the Professional Quality of Life Scale. Results indicated that participants who survived the hurricanes had higher levels of posttraumatic growth than…

  7. Mass Media Use by College Students during Hurricane Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piotrowski, Chris

    2015-01-01

    There is a dearth of studies on how college students prepare for the threat of natural disasters. This study surveyed college students' preferences in mass media use prior to an approaching hurricane. The convenience sample (n = 76) were from a university located in the hurricane-prone area of the central Gulf of Mexico coast. Interestingly,…

  8. A Climatological Study of Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    extratropical cyclone by months in the Pacific basin. Most of the storms occur from October through March...hurricane force extratropical cyclone. Starting from left to right; the first column is the storm name, second column is the year, month, day, hour (UTC...2000 through 2007 illustrates that the number of hurricane-force extratropical cyclones is quite significant: approximately 500 storms , nearly evenly

  9. Teacher Guidelines for Helping Students after a Hurricane

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Child Traumatic Stress Network, 2013

    2013-01-01

    Being in a hurricane can be very frightening, and the days, weeks, and months following the storm can be very stressful. Most families recover over time, especially with the support of relatives, friends, and their community. But different families may have different experiences during and after a hurricane, and how long it takes them to recover…

  10. Changes in subclinical organ damage vs. in Framingham risk score for assessing cardiovascular risk reduction during continued antihypertensive treatment: a LIFE substudy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Michael H; Wachtell, Kristian; Ibsen, Hans

    2011-01-01

    To investigate whether in-treatment measurements of subclinical organ damage (SOD) assessed by elevated urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) or electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy improved the prediction of the composite cardiovascular endpoint of cardiovascular death, nonfatal...

  11. Hurricane Sandy: Shared Trauma and Therapist Self-Disclosure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Nyapati; Mehra, Ashwin

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy was one of the most devastating storms to hit the United States in history. The impact of the hurricane included power outages, flooding in the New York City subway system and East River tunnels, disrupted communications, acute shortages of gasoline and food, and a death toll of 113 people. In addition, thousands of residences and businesses in New Jersey and New York were destroyed. This article chronicles the first author's personal and professional experiences as a survivor of the hurricane, more specifically in the dual roles of provider and trauma victim, involving informed self-disclosure with a patient who was also a victim of the hurricane. The general analytic framework of therapy is evaluated in the context of the shared trauma faced by patient and provider alike in the face of the hurricane, leading to important implications for future work on resilience and recovery for both the therapist and patient.

  12. On the Impact Angle of Hurricane Sandy's New Jersey Landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Timothy M.; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy's track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record, one of the factors contributing to recordsetting peak-water levels in parts of New Jersey and New York. To estimate the occurrence rate of Sandy-like tracks, we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricanes. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long-term average climate conditions, a hurricane of Sandy's intensity or greater (category 1+) makes NJ landfall at an angle at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy's at an average annual rate of 0.0014 yr-1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 years (95% confidence range 435 to 1429).

  13. An Integrated Ensemble-Based Operational Framework to Predict Urban Flooding: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, F.; Ramaswamy, V.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A. F.; Wang, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Advances in computational resources and modeling techniques are opening the path to effectively integrate existing complex models. In the context of flood prediction, recent extreme events have demonstrated the importance of integrating components of the hydrosystem to better represent the interactions amongst different physical processes and phenomena. As such, there is a pressing need to develop holistic and cross-disciplinary modeling frameworks that effectively integrate existing models and better represent the operative dynamics. This work presents a novel Hydrologic-Hydraulic-Hydrodynamic Ensemble (H3E) flood prediction framework that operationally integrates existing predictive models representing coastal (New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System, NYHOPS), hydrologic (US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Modeling System, HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (2-dimensional River Analysis System, HEC-RAS) components. The state-of-the-art framework is forced with 125 ensemble meteorological inputs from numerical weather prediction models including the Global Ensemble Forecast System, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) and the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM). The framework produces, within a 96-hour forecast horizon, on-the-fly Google Earth flood maps that provide critical information for decision makers and emergency preparedness managers. The utility of the framework was demonstrated by retrospectively forecasting an extreme flood event, hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack watersheds (New Jersey, USA). Hurricane Sandy caused significant damage to a number of critical facilities in this area including the New Jersey Transit's main storage and maintenance facility. The results of this work demonstrate that ensemble based frameworks provide improved flood predictions and useful information about associated uncertainties, thus

  14. Shelf sediment transport during hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kehui; Mickey, Rangley C.; Chen, Qin; Harris, Courtney K.; Hetland, Robert D.; Hu, Kelin; Wang, Jiaze

    2016-05-01

    Hurricanes can greatly modify the sedimentary record, but our coastal scientific community has rather limited capability to predict hurricane-induced sediment deposition. A three-dimensional sediment transport model was developed in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to study seabed erosion and deposition on the Louisiana shelf in response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the year 2005. Sensitivity tests were performed on both erosional and depositional processes for a wide range of erosional rates and settling velocities, and uncertainty analysis was done on critical shear stresses using the polynomial chaos approximation method. A total of 22 model runs were performed in sensitivity and uncertainty tests. Estimated maximum erosional depths were sensitive to the inputs, but horizontal erosional patterns seemed to be controlled mainly by hurricane tracks, wave-current combined shear stresses, seabed grain sizes, and shelf bathymetry. During the passage of two hurricanes, local resuspension and deposition dominated the sediment transport mechanisms. Hurricane Katrina followed a shelf-perpendicular track before making landfall and its energy dissipated rapidly within about 48 h along the eastern Louisiana coast. In contrast, Hurricane Rita followed a more shelf-oblique track and disturbed the seabed extensively during its 84-h passage from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Louisiana-Texas border. Conditions to either side of Hurricane Rita's storm track differed substantially, with the region to the east having stronger winds, taller waves and thus deeper erosions. This study indicated that major hurricanes can disturb the shelf at centimeter to meter levels. Each of these two hurricanes suspended seabed sediment mass that far exceeded the annual sediment inputs from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers, but the net transport from shelves to estuaries is yet to be determined. Future studies should focus on the modeling of sediment exchange between

  15. Gulf of Mexico hurricane wave simulations using SWAN : Bulk formula-based drag coefficient sensitivity for Hurricane Ike

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Y.; Weisberg, R.H.; Zheng, L.; Zijlema, M.

    2013-01-01

    The effects of wind input parameterizations on wave estimations under hurricane conditions are examined using the unstructured grid, third-generation wave model, Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). Experiments using Hurricane Ike wind forcing, which impacted the Gulf of Mexico in 2008, illustrate

  16. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer: Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Timothy L.; James, M. W.; Roberts, J. B.; Biswas, S. K.; Cecil, D.; Jones, W. L.; Johnson, J.; Farrar, S.; Sahawneh, S.; Ruf, C. S.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an airborne passive microwave radiometer designed to provide high resolution, wide swath imagery of surface wind speed in tropical cyclones from a low profile planar antenna with no mechanical scanning. Wind speed and rain rate images from HIRAD's first field campaign (GRIP, 2010) are presented here followed, by a discussion on the performance of the newly installed thermal control system during the 2012 HS3 campaign. The paper ends with a discussion on the next generation dual polarization HIRAD antenna (already designed) for a future system capable of measuring wind direction as well as wind speed.

  17. Assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among adult patients with primary hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital, Kenya: a criteria-based clinical audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwita, Clifford Chacha; Akello, Walter; Sisenda, Gloria; Ogoti, Evans; Tivey, David; Munn, Zachary; Mbogo, David

    2013-06-01

    Appropriate management of hypertension reduces the risk of death from stroke and cardiac disease and includes routine assessment for target organ damage and estimation of cardiovascular risk. However, implementation of evidence-based hypertension management guidelines is unsatisfactory. We explore the use of audit and feedback as a quality improvement (QI) strategy for reducing the knowledge practice gap in hypertension care in a resource poor setting. The aim of this study is to determine the level of compliance to evidence-based guidelines on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among patients with hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital in central Kenya and to implement best practice with regard to evidence utilisation among clinicians in the hospital. A retrospective clinical audit done in three phases spread over 5 months. Phase one involved identifying five audit criteria on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage in patients with hypertension and conducting a baseline audit in which compliance to audit criteria, blood pressure control and drug prescription practices were assessed. Phase two involved identifying barriers to compliance to audit criteria and strategies to overcoming these barriers. The third phase was a follow-up audit. There was no use of a cardiovascular risk assessment tool in both audits (0% vs. 0%; P = 1.00). Testing urine for haematuria and proteinuria reduced from 13% to 8% (P = 0.230) while taking a blood sample for measuring blood glucose, electrolytes and creatinine levels improved from 11% to 17% (P = 0.401). Performance of fundoscopy and electrocardiography remained unchanged at 2% and 8%, respectively (P = 0.886 and P = 0.898). High patient load was identified as the biggest barrier to implementation of best practice. Blood pressure control improved from 33% to 70% (P ≤ 0.001), whereas the proportion of patients on two or more recommended antihypertensive drugs rose

  18. Perceptions of severe storms, climate change, ecological structures and resiliency three years post-hurricane Sandy in New Jersey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

    2017-12-01

    Global warming is leading to increased frequency and severity of storms that are associated with flooding, increasing the risk to urban, coastal populations. This study examined perceptions of the relationship between severe storms, sea level rise, climate change and ecological barriers by a vulnerable environmental justice population in New Jersey. Patients using New Jersey's Federally Qualified Health Centers were interviewed after Hurricane [Superstorm] Sandy because it is essential to understand the perceptions of uninsured, underinsured, and economically challenged people to better develop a resiliency strategy for the most vulnerable people. Patients ( N = 355) using 6 centers were interviewed using a structured interview form. Patients were interviewed in the order they entered the reception area, in either English or Spanish. Respondents were asked to rate their agreement with environmental statements. Respondents 1) agreed with experts that "severe storms were due to climate change", "storms will come more often", and that "flooding was due to sea level rise", 2) did not agree as strongly that "climate change was due to human activity", 3) were neutral for statements that " Sandy damages were due to loss of dunes or salt marshes". 4) did not differ as a function of ethnic/racial categories, and 5) showed few gender differences. It is imperative that the public understand that climate change and sea level rise are occurring so that they support community programs (and funding) to prepare for increased frequency of storms and coastal flooding. The lack of high ratings for the role of dunes and marshes in preventing flooding indicates a lack of understanding that ecological structures protect coasts, and suggests a lack of support for management actions to restore dunes as part of a coastal preparedness strategy. Perceptions that do not support a public policy of coastal zone management to protect coastlines can lead to increased flooding, extensive property

  19. Neuronal damage biomarkers in the identification of patients at risk of long-term postoperative cognitive dysfunction after cardiac surgery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, W F; Koerts, Janneke; Tucha, O; Scheeren, T W L; Absalom, A R

    Biomarkers of neurological injury can potentially predict postoperative cognitive dysfunction. We aimed to identify whether classical neuronal damage-specific biomarkers, including brain fatty acid-binding protein, neuron-specific enolase and S100 calcium-binding protein β, as well as plasma-free

  20. A proposed method to assess the damage risk of future climate change to museum objects in historic buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbregts, Z.; Kramer, R.P.; Martens, M.H.J.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.

    2012-01-01

    Future climate change is expected to have a critical effect on valuable museum collections that are housed in historic buildings. Changes of the indoor environment in the building affect the microclimate around the museum objects and may cause damage to the collection. In this study, a method is

  1. Documentation and hydrologic analysis of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, October 29–30, 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suro, Thomas P.; Deetz, Anna; Hearn, Paul

    2016-11-17

    In 2012, a late season tropical depression developed into a tropical storm and later a hurricane. The hurricane, named “Hurricane Sandy,” gained strength to a Category 3 storm on October 25, 2012, and underwent several transitions on its approach to the mid-Atlantic region of the eastern coast of the United States. By October 28, 2012, Hurricane Sandy had strengthened into the largest hurricane ever recorded in the North Atlantic and was tracking parallel to the east coast of United States, heading toward New Jersey. On October 29, 2012, the storm turned west-northwest and made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. The high winds and wind-driven storm surge caused massive damage along the entire coastline of New Jersey. Millions of people were left without power or communication networks. Many homes were completely destroyed. Sand dunes were eroded, and the barrier island at Mantoloking was breached, connecting the ocean with Barnegat Bay.Several days before the storm made landfall in New Jersey, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) made a decision to deploy a temporary network of storm-tide sensors and barometric pressure sensors from Virginia to Maine to supplement the existing USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent tide monitoring stations. After the storm made landfall, the USGS conducted a sensor data recovery and high-water-mark collection campaign in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).Peak storm-tide elevations documented at USGS tide gages, tidal crest-stage gages, temporary storm sensor locations, and high-water-mark sites indicate the area from southern Monmouth County, N.J., north through Raritan Bay, N.J., had the highest peak storm-tide elevations during this storm. The USGS tide gages at Raritan River at South Amboy and Raritan Bay at Keansburg, part of the New Jersey Tide Telemetry System, each recorded peak storm-tide elevations of greater than 13 feet (ft)—more than 5 ft

  2. Spatial distribution of damages from winter 2014 coastal storms in the northern coast of Spain: hazard, vulnerability and elements at risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Garmendia Pedraja

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The succession of storms events that hit the Galician-Cantabrian coast during the winter of 2014 caused considerable damages, in both the natural environment and the infrastructures and equipment, whose restoration was worth around 70 million € . Taking in mind the sensibility of beaches to erosion, these types of environments focused much of the analysis. The results show that the spatial distribution of those damages keep a closer relationship with the greater appreciation of these spaces by the population rather than the magnitude of the natural phenomenon or the geomorphological background. That idea confirms that the consequences of the extreme climatic events do not depend exclusively on the process hazardousness but also on the vulnerability (natural and social of the geographical area affected and the quantity and value of the elements at risk.

  3. Observations and operational model simulations reveal the impact of Hurricane Matthew (2016) on the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezer, Tal; Atkinson, Larry P.; Tuleya, Robert

    2017-12-01

    In October 7-9, 2016, Hurricane Matthew moved along the southeastern coast of the U.S., causing major flooding and significant damage, even to locations farther north well away from the storm's winds. Various observations, such as tide gauge data, cable measurements of the Florida Current (FC) transport, satellite altimeter data and high-frequency radar data, were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the storm. The data show a dramatic decline in the FC flow and increased coastal sea level along the U.S. coast. Weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) downstream from the storm's area contributed to high coastal sea levels farther north. Analyses of simulations of an operational hurricane-ocean coupled model reveal the disruption that the hurricane caused to the GS flow, including a decline in transport of ∼20 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1). In comparison, the observed FC reached a maximum transport of ∼40 Sv before the storm on September 10 and a minimum of ∼20 Sv after the storm on October 12. The hurricane impacts both the geostrophic part of the GS and the wind-driven currents, generating inertial oscillations with velocities of up to ±1 m s-1. Analysis of the observed FC transport since 1982 indicated that the magnitude of the current weakening in October 2016 was quite rare (outside 3 standard deviations from the mean). Such a large FC weakening in the past occurred more often in October and November, but is extremely rare in June-August. Similar impacts on the FC from past tropical storms and hurricanes suggest that storms may contribute to seasonal and interannual variations in the FC. The results also demonstrated the extended range of coastal impacts that remote storms can cause through their influence on ocean currents.

  4. A Simulation Tool for Hurricane Evacuation Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J. Fonseca

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Atlantic hurricanes and severe tropical storms are a serious threat for the communities in the Gulf of Mexico region. Such storms are violent and destructive. In response to these dangers, coastal evacuation may be ordered. This paper describes the development of a simulation model to analyze the movement of vehicles through I-65, a major US Interstate highway that runs north off the coastal City of Mobile, Alabama, towards the State of Tennessee, during a massive evacuation originated by a disastrous event such a hurricane. The constructed simulation platform consists of a primary and two secondary models. The primary model is based on the entry of vehicles from the 20 on-ramps to I-65. The two secondary models assist the primary model with related traffic events such as car breakdowns and accidents, traffic control measures, interarrival signaling, and unforeseen emergency incidents, among others. Statistical testing was performed on the data generated by the simulation model to indentify variation in relevant traffic variables affecting the timely flow of vehicles travelling north. The performed statistical analysis focused on the closing of alternative on-ramps throughout the Interstate.

  5. Weathering the storm: hurricanes and birth outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Janet; Rossin-Slater, Maya

    2013-05-01

    A growing literature suggests that stressful events in pregnancy can have negative effects on birth outcomes. Some of the estimates in this literature may be affected by small samples, omitted variables, endogenous mobility in response to disasters, and errors in the measurement of gestation, as well as by a mechanical correlation between longer gestation and the probability of having been exposed. We use millions of individual birth records to examine the effects of exposure to hurricanes during pregnancy, and the sensitivity of the estimates to these econometric problems. We find that exposure to a hurricane during pregnancy increases the probability of abnormal conditions of the newborn such as being on a ventilator more than 30min and meconium aspiration syndrome (MAS). Although we are able to reproduce previous estimates of effects on birth weight and gestation, our results suggest that measured effects of stressful events on these outcomes are sensitive to specification and it is preferable to use more sensitive indicators of newborn health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Hurricane Sandy science plan: coastal impact assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stronko, Jakob M.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: coastal topography and bathymetry, impacts to coastal beaches and barriers, impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology, impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures, impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife. This fact sheet focuses assessing impacts to coastal beaches and barriers.

  7. Using High-Resolution Imagery to Characterize Disturbance from Hurricane Irma in South Florida Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagomasino, D.; Cook, B.; Fatoyinbo, T.; Morton, D. C.; Montesano, P.; Neigh, C. S. R.; Wooten, M.; Gaiser, E.; Troxler, T.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Irma, one of the strongest hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic, first made landfall in the Florida Keys before coming ashore in southwestern Florida near Everglades National Park (ENP) on September 9th and 10th of this year. Strong winds and storm surge impacted a 100+ km stretch of the southern Florida Gulf Coast, resulting in extensive damages to coastal and inland ecosystems. Impacts from previous catastrophic storms in the region have led to irreversible changes to vegetation communities and in some areas, ecosystem collapse. The processes that drive coastal wetland vulnerability and resilience are largely a function of the severity of the impact to forest structure and ground elevation. Remotely sensed imagery plays an important role in measuring changes to the landscape, particularly for extensive and inaccessible regions like the mangroves in ENP. We have estimated changes in coastal vegetation structure and soil elevation using a combination of repeat measurements from ground, airborne, and satellite platforms. At the ground level, we used before and after Structure-from-Motion models to capture the change in below canopy structure as result of stem breakage and fallen branches. Using airborne imagery collected before and after Hurricane Irma by Goddard's Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) Airborne Imager, we measured the change in forest structure and soil elevation. This unique data acquisition covered an area over 130,000 ha in regions most heavily impacted storm surge. Lastly, we also combined commercial and NASA satellite Earth observations to measure forest structural changes across the entire South Florida coast. An analysis of long-term observations from the Landsat data archive highlights the heterogeneity of hurricane and other environmental disturbances along the Florida coast. These findings captured coastal disturbance legacies that have the potential to influence the trajectory of mangrove resilience and vulnerability

  8. Depressive Symptom Severity and Community Collective Efficacy following the 2004 Florida Hurricanes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carol S Fullerton

    Full Text Available There is a lack of research investigating community-level characteristics, such as community collective efficacy, mitigating the impact of disasters on psychological health, specifically depression. We examined the association of community collective efficacy with depressive symptom severity in Florida public health workers (n = 2249 exposed to the 2004 hurricane season using a multilevel approach. Cross-sectional anonymous questionnaires were distributed electronically to all Florida Department of Health (FDOH personnel that assessed depressive symptom severity and collective efficacy nine months after the 2004 hurricane season. Analyses were conducted at the individual level and community level using zip codes. The majority of participants were female (81.9%, and ages ranged from 20 to 78 years (median = 49 years. The majority of participants (73.4% were European American, 12.7% were African American, and 9.2% were Hispanic. Using multilevel analysis, our data indicate that higher community-level and individual-level collective efficacy were associated with significantly lower depressive symptom severity (b = -0.09 [95% CI: -0.13, -0.04] and b = -0.09 [95% CI: -0.12, -0.06], respectively even after adjusting for individual sociodemographic variables, community socioeconomic characteristics, individual injury/damage, and community storm damage. Lower levels of depressive symptom severity were associated with communities with high collective efficacy. Our study highlights the possible importance of programs that enrich community collective efficacy for disaster communities.

  9. Assessing damage cost estimation of urban pluvial flood risk as a mean of improving climate change adaptations investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how it will be affected by climate change and how much can be gained by implementing adaptation...... measures. This study investigates three different methods for estimating the EAD based on a loglinear relation between the damage costs and the return periods, one of which has been used in previous studies. The results show with the increased amount of data points there appears to be a shift in the log......-linear relation which could be contributed by the Danish design standards for drainage systems. Three different methods for estimating the EAD were tested and the choice of method is less important than accounting for the log-linear shift. This then also means that the statistical approximation of the EAD used...

  10. Application of the Integrated Safety Assessment methodology to safety margins. Dynamic Event Trees, Damage Domains and Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibánez, L.; Hortal, J.; Queral, C.; Gómez-Magán, J.; Sánchez-Perea, M.; Fernández, I.; Meléndez, E.; Expósito, A.; Izquierdo, J.M.; Gil, J.; Marrao, H.; Villalba-Jabonero, E.

    2016-01-01

    The Integrated Safety Assessment (ISA) methodology, developed by the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, has been applied to an analysis of Zion NPP for sequences with Loss of the Component Cooling Water System (CCWS). The ISA methodology proposal starts from the unfolding of the Dynamic Event Tree (DET). Results from this first step allow assessing the sequence delineation of standard Probabilistic Safety Analysis results. For some sequences of interest of the outlined DET, ISA then identifies the Damage Domain (DD). This is the region of uncertain times and/or parameters where a safety limit is exceeded, which indicates the occurrence of certain damage situation. This paper illustrates application of this concept obtained simulating sequences with MAAP and with TRACE. From information of simulation results of sequence transients belonging to the DD and the time-density probability distributions of the manual actions and of occurrence of stochastic phenomena, ISA integrates the dynamic reliability equations proposed to obtain the sequence contribution to the global Damage Exceedance Frequency (DEF). Reported results show a slight increase in the DEF for sequences investigated following a power uprate from 100% to 110%. This demonstrates the potential use of the method to help in the assessment of design modifications. - Highlights: • This paper illustrates an application of the ISA methodology to safety margins. • Dynamic Event Trees are useful tool for verifying the standard PSA Event Trees. • The ISA methodology takes into account the uncertainties in human action times. • The ISA methodology shows the Damage Exceedance Frequency increase in power uprates.

  11. Is There an Inherent Risk to Damage the Popliteus Tendon by Femoral Component With Inbuilt External Rotation? A Pilot Study in Indian Knees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chouhan, Dervendra Kumar; Dhillon, Mandeep S

    2016-02-01

    Femoral components with inbuilt rotation require thicker flexion resection of the lateral femoral condyle and could have a potential risk of damaging the popliteus tendon, especially in the smaller Asian knees. We prospectively evaluated 10 patients with bilateral varus osteoarthritis knee to size the cuts and their location in relation to the popliteus tendon. Two different types of implant were used on either side; one side requires resection in 3° external rotation (group A) and the other side requires a femoral component with inbuilt external rotation (group B). We observed the incidence of injury to the popliteus tendon and distance between flexion cut to its attachment over the lateral femoral condyle between both groups. We had popliteus tendon injury in 3 knees all from group B. Risk of damaging the popliteus tendon was found higher in group B, as the distance between flexion cut to popliteus tendon attachment was significantly low. Femoral component with inbuilt external rotation has more risk of injuring the popliteus tendon because flexion cut takes out more bone from the lateral femoral condyle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk of obstructive sleep apnea with daytime sleepiness is associated with liver damage in non-morbidly obese patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edoardo Alessandro Pulixi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A high prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS has been reported in severely obese patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, but few studies have evaluated OSAS in non-morbidly obese NAFLD patients. AIMS: To determine the prevalence of risk for OSAS with or without daytime sleepiness in non-morbidly obese patients with NAFLD and evaluate the association with the severity of liver damage. METHODS: We considered 159 consecutive patients with histological NAFLD and body mass index (BMI 1; 9/13, 69% vs. 39/146, 27%; p = 0.003. At multivariate logistic regression analysis, OSAS with sleepiness was strongly associated with NASH and fibrosis>1 independently of known clinical risk factors such as age, gender, BMI, diabetes, and ALT levels (OR 7.1, 95% c.i. 1.7-51, p = 0.005 and OR 14.0, 95% c.i. 3.5-70, p = 0.0002, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A proportion of NAFLD patients without severe obesity is at risk for OSAS with daytime sleepiness, which is associated with the severity of liver damage independently of body mass and other cofactors.

  13. Comparative study between Poland and South Africa: Wind climates, the related damage and implications of adopting the Eurocode for wind action on buildings

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Goliger, Adam M

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available and Hatheway [27] report an analysis of the damage caused by Hurricane Opal in the USA, where less than 1% of structures conforming with structural standards was damaged. Cook [7] suggests that the actual damage to the built environment in the UK starts...

  14. Evaluation of the risk of liver damage from the use of 5-aminolevulinic acid for intra-operative identification and resection in patients with malignant gliomas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Offersen, Cecilie Mørck; Skjoeth-Rasmussen, Jane

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The clinical efficacy of 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA) for fluorescence-guided surgery of malignant gliomas is evident from several studies; however, as post-operative elevations of liver enzymes have been seen, there is a potential risk of liver damage upon administration. The aim...... (September 2012-September 2014) at the University Hospital of Copenhagen, Rigshospitalet, was conducted. All patients received a pre-operative dose of 20 mg/kg bodyweight 5-ALA. The pre- and post-operative enzyme levels of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma glutamyltransferase...

  15. High Resolution Hurricane Storm Surge and Inundation Modeling (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luettich, R.; Westerink, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Coastal counties are home to nearly 60% of the U.S. population and industry that accounts for over 16 million jobs and 10% of the U.S. annual gross domestic product. However, these areas are susceptible to some of the most destructive forces in nature, including tsunamis, floods, and severe storm-related hazards. Since 1900, tropical cyclones making landfall on the US Gulf of Mexico Coast have caused more than 9,000 deaths; nearly 2,000 deaths have occurred during the past half century. Tropical cyclone-related adjusted, annualized losses in the US have risen from 1.3 billion from 1949-1989, to 10.1 billion from 1990-1995, and $35.8 billion per year for the period 2001-2005. The risk associated with living and doing business in the coastal areas that are most susceptible to tropical cyclones is exacerbated by rising sea level and changes in the characteristics of severe storms associated with global climate change. In the five years since hurricane Katrina devastated the northern Gulf of Mexico Coast, considerable progress has been made in the development and utilization of high resolution coupled storm surge and wave models. Recent progress will be presented with the ADCIRC + SWAN storm surge and wave models. These tightly coupled models use a common unstructured grid in the horizontal that is capable of covering large areas while also providing high resolution (i.e., base resolution down to 20m plus smaller subgrid scale features such as sea walls and levees) in areas that are subject to surge and inundation. Hydrodynamic friction and overland winds are adjusted to account for local land cover. The models scale extremely well on modern high performance computers allowing rapid turnaround on large numbers of compute cores. The models have been adopted for FEMA National Flood Insurance Program studies, hurricane protection system design and risk analysis, and quasi-operational forecast systems for several regions of the country. They are also being evaluated as

  16. Variation in RGS2 is associated with suicidal ideation in an epidemiological study of adults exposed to the 2004 Florida hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstadter, Ananda B; Koenen, Karestan C; Ruggiero, Kenneth J; Acierno, Ron; Galea, Sandro; Kilpatrick, Dean G; Gelernter, Joel

    2009-01-01

    This study examined whether rs4606, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the translated region at the 3' end of RGS2, was related to suicidal ideation in an epidemiologic sample of adults living in areas affected by the 2004 Florida hurricanes. An epidemiologic sample of residents of Florida was recruited via random digit-dial procedures after the 2004 Florida hurricanes; participants were interviewed about suicidal ideation, hurricane exposure, and social support. Participants who returned buccal DNA samples via mail (n = 607) were included here. Rs4606 in RGS2 was associated with increased symptoms of current suicidal ideation (p < 0.01). Each "C" allele was associated with 5.59 times increased risk of having current ideation. No gene-by-environment interactions were found, perhaps due to low power. RGS2 rs4606 is related to risk of current suicidal ideation in stressor-exposed adults.

  17. How prepared were the Puerto Rico Seismic Network sites for the arrival of Hurricane Maria? Lessons learned on communications, power and infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanacore, E. A.; Lopez, A. M.; Huerfano, V.; Lugo, J.; Baez-Sanchez, G.

    2017-12-01

    For exactly 85 years the island of Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean was spared from catastrophic category 4 hurricane winds. Then Hurricane Maria arrived on September 20, 2017 with maximum sustained winds of up to 155 mph. The eye of the hurricane crossed the island from southeast to northwest in eight hours leaving almost a meter of rainfall on its path. Sustained winds, gusts and precipitation were most certainly going to affect the seismic and geodetic equipment the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) use for locating earthquakes in the region. PRSN relies on 35 seismic stations (velocity and strong-motion) to characterize the seismic behavior of the island and 15 geodetic (GNSS) stations to determine crustal deformation of the Puerto Rico - Virgin Islands microplate. PRSN stations have been designed to withstand earthquakes. However, the equipment suffered considerable damage due to the strong winds especially station communication towers. This coupled with catastrophic damage to the telecommunication and power grids of the island had severe effects on the network. Additionally, the level of devastation was such that it hampered the ability of PRSN staff to visit the sites for assessment and repair. Here we present the effects of category 4 hurricane had on our seismic and geodetic sites, examine the susceptibility of the PRSN stations' power and communications, and discuss future plans to recuperate and improve station resiliency for future catastrophic events. These lessons learned hopefully will help harden sites of networks, agencies and/or institutions that rely on similar infrastructure.

  18. Oil spills and other issues in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita : an overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, D.W. [Lousiana Applied and Educational Research and Development Program, Baton Rouge, LA (United States)

    2006-07-01

    The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina revealed weaknesses in the command, control, communications, and information dissemination functions within a variety of emergency response systems. This paper gave an outline of clean-up procedures involving hazardous materials. To date, clean-up crews have disposed of 8.0 million tonnes of an estimated 22.0 million tonnes of debris. The clean-up involved more than 1.3 million containerized hazardous materials; more than 230,000 damaged white goods; and nearly 43,000 damaged electronic goods. More than 3,400 samples of water, soil and air have been collected. Nearly 75 chemistry laboratories in schools have been inspected, and an additional 1500 emergency assessments of potential chemical releases were investigated. The floodwaters carried nearly 4.1 million litres of oil from a Chalmette refinery. Between September and the end of 2005, the Louisiana Oil Spill Coordinator's Office logged in 81 spill events in southwest Louisiana involving 22,000 bbls of crude. Six major, 3 medium and 131 minor events have occurred in southeast Louisiana. More than 3000 offshore platforms were shut down or damaged during the 2005 hurricane season. At least 115 platforms were destroyed and 52 were damaged. Onshore spills of concern included incidents at Murphy Oil Refinery; Bass Enterprise Production Company; Chevron at Port Fourchon; Venice Energy Services Company; Shell Pipeline; and Sundown Energy. It was concluded work done by the spill community will result in the development of more effective response plans. 23 refs.

  19. Genesis and maintenance of "Mediterranean hurricanes"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Emanuel

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Cyclonic storms that closely resemble tropical cyclones in satellite images occasionally form over the Mediterranean Sea. Synoptic and mesoscale analyses of such storms show small, warm-core structure and surface winds sometimes exceeding 25ms-1 over small areas. These analyses, together with numerical simulations, reveal that in their mature stages, such storms intensify and are maintained by a feedback between surface enthalpy fluxes and wind, and as such are isomorphic with tropical cyclones. In this paper, I demonstrate that a cold, upper low over the Mediterranean can produce strong cyclogenesis in an axisymmetric model, thereby showing that baroclinic instability is not necessary during the mature stages of Mediterranean hurricanes.

  20. Using remotely sensed data and elementary analytical techniques in post-katrina mississippi to examine storm damage modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis A. Collins; David L. Evans; Keith L. Belli; Patrick A. Glass

    2010-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina’s passage through south Mississippi on August 29, 2005, which damaged or destroyed thousands of hectares of forest land, was followed by massive salvage, cleanup, and assessment efforts. An initial assessment by the Mississippi Forestry Commission estimated that over $1 billion in raw wood material was downed by the storm, with county-level damage...

  1. Forecasting Hurricane Tracks Using a Complex Adaptive System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lear, Matthew R

    2005-01-01

    Forecast hurricane tracks using a multi-model ensemble that consists of linearly combining the individual model forecasts have greatly reduced the average forecast errors when compared to individual...

  2. Rhode Island Hurricane Evacuation Study Technical Data Report

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1995-01-01

    ... evacuation decision-making. To accomplish this, the study provides information on the extent and severity of potential flooding from hurricanes, the associated vulnerable population, capacities of existing public shelters...

  3. A Complex Adaptive System Approach to Forecasting Hurricane Tracks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lear, Matthew R

    2005-01-01

    Forecast hurricane tracks using a multi-model ensemble that consists of linearly combining the individual model forecasts have greatly reduced the average forecast errors when compared to individual...

  4. Hurricane Inner-Core Structure as Revealed by GPS Dropwindsondes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Leejoice, Robert

    2000-01-01

    New high-resolution information of the vertical thermodynamic and kinematic structure of the hurricane inner-core is now available from aircraft released Global Positioning System (GPS) dropwindsondes...

  5. Hurricane Wind Vector Estimates from WindSat Polarimetric Radiometer

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Adams, Ian S; Hennon, Christopther C; Jones, W. L; Ahmad, Khalil

    2005-01-01

    .... In late 2004, the first preliminary oceanic wind vector results were released, and this paper presents the first evaluation of this product for several Atlantic hurricanes during the 2003 season...

  6. Extreme Hurricane-Generated Waves in Gulf of Mexico

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alberto, Carlos; Fernandes, Santos

    2005-01-01

    .... Although WaveWatchIII (WW3) is used by many operational forecasting centers around the world, there is a lack of field studies to evaluate its accuracy in regional applications and under extreme conditions, such as Hurricanes...

  7. The Repopulation of New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McCarthy, Kevin; Peterson, D. J; Sastry, Narayan; Pollard, Michael

    2006-01-01

    What the future size and composition of the population of New Orleans will be in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina is a topic of intense interest and discussion among current and displaced residents of the city...

  8. Hurricane Sandy: Rapid Response Imagery of the Surrounding Regions

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The imagery posted on this site is of Hurricane Sandy. The aerial photography missions were conducted by the NOAA Remote Sensing Division. The images were acquired...

  9. Nurses respond to Hurricane Hugo victims' disaster stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinrich, S; Hardin, S B; Johnson, M

    1990-06-01

    Hugo, a class IV hurricane, hit South Carolina September 22, 1989, and left behind a wake of terror and destruction. Sixty-one nursing students and five faculty were involved in disaster relief with families devastated by the hurricane. A review of the literature led these authors to propose a formulation of the concept of disaster stress, a synthesis of theories that explains response to disaster as a crisis response, a stress response, or as posttraumatic stress. With the concept of disaster stress serving as a theoretical foundation, the nurses observed, assessed, and intervened with one population of hurricane Hugo victims, noting their immediate psychosocial reactions and coping mechanisms. Victims' reactions to disaster stress included confusion, irritability, lethargy, withdrawal, and crying. The most frequently observed coping strategy of these hurricane Hugo victims was talking about their experiences; other coping tactics involved humor, religion, and altruism.

  10. Rhode Island Hurricane Evacuation Study Technical Data Report

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1995-01-01

    .... The purpose of the study is to provide the Rhode Island Emergency Management Agency and Rhode Island coastal communities with realistic data quantifying the major factors involved in hurricane...

  11. Hurricane Sandy, Disaster Preparedness, and the Recovery Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzi, Michael A

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy was the second largest and costliest hurricane in U.S. history to affect multiple states and communities. This article describes the lived experiences of 24 occupational therapy students who lived through Hurricane Sandy using the Recovery Model to frame the research. Occupational therapy student narratives were collected and analyzed using qualitative methods and framed by the Recovery Model. Directed content and thematic analysis was performed using the 10 components of the Recovery Model. The 10 components of the Recovery Model were experienced by or had an impact on the occupational therapy students as they coped and recovered in the aftermath of the natural disaster. This study provides insight into the lived experiences and recovery perspectives of occupational therapy students who experienced Hurricane Sandy. Further research is indicated in applying the Recovery Model to people who survive disasters. Copyright © 2015 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

  12. Hurricane Andrew causes major oil spill at Florida Power ampersand Light Company's Turkey Point Power Plant, Homestead, Florida

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.A.; Butts, R.L.; Lindsay, J.R.; McCully, B.S.; Pickering, T.H.

    1993-01-01

    On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew slammed into South Florida with wind gusts in excess of 160 mph. At 4:00 a.m. that day, the eye of this category four storm passed over Florida Power ampersand Light Company's Turkey Point power plant, south of Miami. Although the plant's two nuclear units escaped any significant damage, the storm caused extensive destruction to buildings and transmission facilities, and damaged two 400 foot tall emission stacks associated with the site's two fossil fuel generating units. In addition, a 90,000 to 110,000 gallon spill of No. 6 fuel oil resulted when a piece of wind-blown debris punctured the steel of the unit One 12,000 barrel fuel oil metering tank approximately 30 feet up from the tank bottom. Despite the presence of a secondary containment structure around the tank, the intense wind blew oil throughout the plant site. The damage to the metering tank apparently occurred during the first half hour of the hurricane. As the tank's oil level fell due to the puncture, transfer pumps from the bulk oil storage tanks received a low level alarm which automatically began transferring oil to the damaged metering tank. To prevent the further discharge of oil, plant personnel entered the power block and secured the pumps during the passage of the hurricane eye. Immediately following the storm, facility personnel deployed booms across the barge canal and the Units 1 and 2 intake canal to contain the oil which had entered the water. The response strategy and implementation is described in detail. The remediation costs were approximately $14/gallon spilled, including 54,000 gallons recovered for electricity generation

  13. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  14. A team approach to preparing for hurricanes and other disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendig, Jim

    2009-01-01

    Applying lessons learned in Hurricane Floyd in 1999, a three-hospital system located on Florida's exposed Space Coast was able to better deal with the devastation caused by hurricanes in 2004 and make changes in its plans to better prepare for the named storms which hit its area in 2008. Each new disaster, the author points out, brings with it new challenges which have to be considered in disaster planning.

  15. Identification of Caribbean basin hurricanes from Spanish documentary sources

    OpenAIRE

    García Herrera, Ricardo; Gimeno, Luis; Ribera, Pedro; Hernández, Emiliano; González, Ester; Fernández, Guadalupe

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyses five hurricanes that occurred in the period 1600 to 1800. These examples were identified during a systematic search in the General Archive of the Indies (AGI) in Seville. The research combined the expertise of climatologists and historians in order to optimise the search and analysis strategies. Results demonstrate the potential of this archive for the assessment of hurricanes in this period and show some of the difficulties involved in the collection of evidence of hurric...

  16. Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, Antonia; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi

    2017-12-01

    During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%-19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5-5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston’s flood protection system.

  17. Hurricane Rita Track Radar Image with Topographic Overlay

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Animation About the animation: This simulated view of the potential effects of storm surge flooding on Galveston and portions of south Houston was generated with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Although it is protected by a 17-foot sea wall against storm surges, flooding due to storm surges caused by major hurricanes remains a concern. The animation shows regions that, if unprotected, would be inundated with water. The animation depicts flooding in one-meter increments. About the image: The Gulf Coast from the Mississippi Delta through the Texas coast is shown in this satellite image from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) overlain with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and the predicted storm track for Hurricane Rita. The prediction from the National Weather Service was published Sept. 22 at 4 p.m. Central Time, and shows the expected track center in black with the lighter shaded area indicating the range of potential tracks the storm could take. Low-lying terrain along the coast has been highlighted using the SRTM elevation data, with areas within 15 feet of sea level shown in red, and within 30 feet in yellow. These areas are more at risk for flooding and the destructive effects of storm surge and high waves. Data used in this image were acquired by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour, launched on Feb. 11, 2000. SRTM used the same radar instrument that comprised the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) that flew twice on the Space Shuttle Endeavour in 1994. SRTM was designed to collect 3-D measurements of the Earth's surface. To collect the 3-D data, engineers added a 60-meter (approximately 200-foot) mast, installed additional C-band and X-band antennas, and improved tracking and navigation devices. The mission is a cooperative project between NASA, the National Geospatial

  18. Hurricane Impact on Seepage Water in Larga Cave, Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieten, Rolf; Warken, Sophie; Winter, Amos; Schröder-Ritzrau, Andrea; Scholz, Denis; Spötl, Christoph

    2018-03-01

    Hurricane-induced rainfall over Puerto Rico has characteristic δ18O values which are more negative than local rainfall events. Thus, hurricanes may be recorded in speleothems from Larga cave, Puerto Rico, as characteristic oxygen isotope excursions. Samples of 84 local rainfall events between 2012 and 2013 ranged from -6.2 to +0.3‰, whereas nine rainfall samples belonging to a rainband of hurricane Isaac (23-24 August 2012) ranged from -11.8 to -7.1‰. Cave monitoring covered the hurricane season of 2014 and investigated the impact of hurricane rainfall on drip water chemistry. δ18O values were measured in cumulative monthly rainwater samples above the cave. Inside the cave, δ18O values of instantaneous drip water samples were analyzed and drip rates were recorded at six drip sites. Most effective recharge appears to occur during the wet months (April-May and August-November). δ18O values of instantaneous drip water samples ranged from -3.5 to -2.4‰. In April 2014 and April 2015 some drip sites showed more negative δ18O values than the effective rainfall (-2.9‰), implying an influence of hurricane rainfall reaching the cave via stratified seepage flow months to years after the event. Speleothems from these drip sites in Larga cave have a high potential for paleotempestology studies.

  19. Oceanic control of Northeast Pacific hurricane activity at interannual timescales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Ruby Leung, L; Yoon, Jin-ho

    2013-01-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is not the only oceanic parameter that can play a key role in the interannual variability of Northeast Pacific hurricane activity. Using several observational data sets and the statistical technique of multiple linear regression analysis, we show that, along with SST, the thermocline depth (TD) plays an important role in hurricane activity at interannual timescales in this basin. Based on the parameter that dominates, the ocean basin can be divided into two sub-regions. In the Southern sub-region, which includes the hurricane main development area, interannual variability of the upper-ocean heat content (OHC) is primarily controlled by TD variations. Consequently, the interannual variability in the hurricane power dissipation index (PDI), which is a measure of the intensity of hurricane activity, is driven by that of the TD. On the other hand, in the Northern sub-region, SST exerts the major control over the OHC variability and, in turn, the PDI. Our study suggests that both SST and TD have a significant influence on the Northeast Pacific hurricane activity at interannual timescales and that their respective roles are more clearly delineated when sub-regions along an approximate north–south demarcation are considered rather than the basin as a whole. (letter)

  20. Ligamentous Injuries and the Risk of Associated Tissue Damage in Acute Ankle Sprains in Athletes: A Cross-sectional MRI Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roemer, Frank W; Jomaah, Nabil; Niu, Jingbo; Almusa, Emad; Roger, Bernard; D'Hooghe, Pieter; Geertsema, Celeste; Tol, Johannes L; Khan, Karim; Guermazi, Ali

    2014-07-01

    Ankle joint injuries are extremely common sports injuries, with the anterior talofibular ligament involved in the majority of ankle sprains. There have been only a few large magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies on associated structural injuries after ankle sprains. To describe the injury pattern in athletes who were referred to MRI for the assessment of an acute ankle sprain and to assess the risk of associated traumatic tissue damage including lateral and syndesmotic ligament involvement. Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. A total of 261 ankle MRI scans of athletes with acute ankle sprains were evaluated for: lateral and syndesmotic ligament injury; concomitant injuries to the deltoid and spring ligaments and sinus tarsi; peroneal, flexor, and extensor retinacula and tendons; traumatic and nontraumatic osteochondral and osseous changes; and joint effusion. Patients were on average 22.5 years old, and the average time from injury to MRI was 5.7 days. Six exclusive injury patterns were defined based on lateral and syndesmotic ligament involvement. The risk for associated injuries was assessed by logistic regression using ankles with no or only low-grade lateral ligament injuries and no syndesmotic ligament damage as the reference. With regard to the injury pattern, there were 103 ankles (39.5%) with complete anterior talofibular ligament disruption and no syndesmotic injury, and 53 ankles (20.3%) had a syndesmotic injury with or without lateral ligament damage. Acute osteochondral lesions of the lateral talar dome were seen in 20 ankles (7.7%). The percentage of chronic lateral osteochondral lesions was 1.1%. The risk for talar bone contusions increased more than 3-fold for ankles with complete lateral ligament ruptures (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.43; 95% CI, 1.72-6.85) but not for ankles with syndesmotic involvement. The risk for associated deltoid ligament injuries increased for ankles with complete lateral ligament injuries (aOR, 4.04; 95% CI, 1