WorldWideScience

Sample records for human-caused climate warming

  1. Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun

    2016-07-01

    The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth's largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world's highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences.

  2. Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, John; Oreskes, Naomi; Doran, Peter T.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Verheggen, Bart; Maibach, Ed W.; Carlton, J. Stuart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Skuce, Andrew G.; Green, Sarah A.; Nuccitelli, Dana; Jacobs, Peter; Richardson, Mark; Winkler, Bärbel; Painting, Rob; Rice, Ken

    2016-04-01

    The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%-100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming (‘no position’) represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.

  3. A campaign to convey the scientific consensus about human-caused climate change: rationale, formative research, and campaign overview. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maibach, E.; Leiserowitz, A.; Gould, R.

    2013-12-01

    Large numbers of Americans mistakenly believe that there is disagreement among the experts about the reality of climate change. For example, in our nationally representative survey conducted in April 2013, only 42% of respondents reported 'most scientists think global warming is happening;' conversely, 33% reported 'there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening,' and an additional 20% responded they 'don't know enough to say.' Our research has also shown that this common misperception is highly consequential: people who misunderstand the scientific consensus are less convinced that climate change is occurring, is human-caused, serious, and solvable; they are also less likely to support societal responses to address the problem. In this paper, we will present the results of a series of randomized controlled message experiments conducted to determine the most effective means of conveying the extent of the scientific consensus about human-caused climate change. The variables tested include quantitative vs. qualitative consensus descriptions, more vs. less precise descriptions, contextualizing metaphors, graphical representations, and explanations regarding why people may have developed a misperception. The findings from this formative research are being used to create a communication campaign that will be launched in fall 2013 by a leading American scientific society prior to the AGU Annual Meeting. A full description of the campaign will be presented.

  4. Plant movements and climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Frenne, Pieter; Coomes, David A.; De Schrijver, An

    2014-01-01

    •Most range shift predictions focus on the dispersal phase of the colonization process. Because moving populations experience increasingly dissimilar nonclimatic environmental conditions as they track climate warming, it is also critical to test how individuals originating from contrasting therma...

  5. Debating about the climate warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Shaowu; LUO Yong; ZHAO Zongci; DONG Wenje; YANG Bao

    2006-01-01

    Debating about the climate warming is reviewed. Discussions have focused on the validity of the temperature reconstruction for the last millennium made by Mann et al. Arguments against and for the reconstruction are introduced. Temperature reconstructions by other authors are examined, including the one carried out by Wang et al. in 1996. It is concluded that: (1) Ability of reproducing temperature variability of time scale less than 10 a is limited, so no sufficient evidence proves that the 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 was the warmest year over the last millennium. (2) All ofthe temperature reconstructions by different authors demonstrate the occurrence of the MWP (Medieval Warm Period) and LIA (Little Ice Age) in low frequency band of temperature variations, though the peak in the MWP and trough in LIA varies from one reconstruction to the others. Therefore, terms of MWP and LIA can be used in studies of climate change. (3) The warming from 1975 to 2000 was significant, but we do not know if it was the strongest for the last millennium, which needs to be proved by more evidence.

  6. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming:Climate Sensitivity Rise With Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

    2016-01-01

    Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleoce...

  7. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming:Climate Sensitivity Rise With Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

    2016-01-01

    Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleoce...

  8. Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Michael E; Wang, George; Huey, Raymond B

    2010-10-07

    Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.

  9. Detecting Urban Warming Signals in Climate Records

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HE Yuting; JIA Gensuo; HU Yonghong; ZHOU Zijiang

    2013-01-01

    Determining whether air temperatures recorded at meteorological stations have been contaminated by the urbanization process is still a controversial issue at the global scale.With support of historical remote sensing data,this study examined the impacts of urban expansion on the trends of air temperature at 69 meteorological stations in Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei Province over the last three decades.There were significant positive relations between the two factors at all stations.Stronger warming was detected at the meteorological stations that experienced greater urbanization,i.e.,those with a higher urbanization rate.While the total urban area affects the absolute temperature values,the change of the urban area (urbanization rate) likely affects the temperature trend.Increases of approximately 10% in urban area around the meteorological stations likely contributed to the 0.13℃ rise in air temperature records in addition to regional climate warming.This study also provides a new approach to selecting reference stations based on remotely sensed urban fractions.Generally,the urbanization-induced warming contributed to approximately 44.1% of the overall warming trends in the plain region of study area during the past 30 years,and the regional climate warming was 0.30℃ (10 yr)-1 in the last three decades.

  10. Climate change: evidence of human causes and arguments for emissions reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Seth D; Haqq-Misra, Jacob D; Karmosky, Chris

    2012-06-01

    In a recent editorial, Raymond Spier expresses skepticism over claims that climate change is driven by human actions and that humanity should act to avoid climate change. This paper responds to this skepticism as part of a broader review of the science and ethics of climate change. While much remains uncertain about the climate, research indicates that observed temperature increases are human-driven. Although opinions vary regarding what should be done, prominent arguments against action are based on dubious factual and ethical positions. Thus, the skepticisms in the recent editorial are unwarranted. This does not diminish the general merits of skeptical intellectual inquiry.

  11. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming...... world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8Ma ago, a possible future...... indicates climate sensitivity increase with global warming....

  12. The public’s belief in climate change and its human cause are increasing over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milfont, Taciano L.; Wilson, Marc S.; Sibley, Chris G.

    2017-01-01

    Polls examining public opinion on the subject of climate change are now commonplace, and one-off public opinion polls provide a snapshot of citizen's opinions that can inform policy and communication strategies. However, cross-sectional polls do not track opinions over time, thus making it impossible to ascertain whether key climate change beliefs held by the same group of individuals are changing or not. Here we examine the extent to which individual's level of agreement with two key beliefs ("climate change is real" and "climate change is caused by humans") remain stable or increase/decrease over a six-year period in New Zealand using latent growth curve modelling (n = 10,436). Data were drawn from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study, a probabilistic national panel study, and indicated that levels of agreement to both beliefs have steadily increased over the 2009–2015 period. Given that climate change beliefs and concerns are key predictors of climate change action, our findings suggest that a combination of targeted endeavors, as well as serendipitous events, may successfully convey the emergency of the issue. PMID:28319190

  13. The public's belief in climate change and its human cause are increasing over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milfont, Taciano L; Wilson, Marc S; Sibley, Chris G

    2017-01-01

    Polls examining public opinion on the subject of climate change are now commonplace, and one-off public opinion polls provide a snapshot of citizen's opinions that can inform policy and communication strategies. However, cross-sectional polls do not track opinions over time, thus making it impossible to ascertain whether key climate change beliefs held by the same group of individuals are changing or not. Here we examine the extent to which individual's level of agreement with two key beliefs ("climate change is real" and "climate change is caused by humans") remain stable or increase/decrease over a six-year period in New Zealand using latent growth curve modelling (n = 10,436). Data were drawn from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study, a probabilistic national panel study, and indicated that levels of agreement to both beliefs have steadily increased over the 2009-2015 period. Given that climate change beliefs and concerns are key predictors of climate change action, our findings suggest that a combination of targeted endeavors, as well as serendipitous events, may successfully convey the emergency of the issue.

  14. Detecting Warming Hiatus Periods in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Tony W.; Noel C. Baker

    2016-01-01

    The observed slow-down in the global-mean surface temperature (GST) warming from 1998 to 2012 has been called a “warming hiatus.” Certain climate models, operating under experiments which simulate warming by increasing radiative forcing, have been shown to reproduce periods which resemble the observed hiatus. The present study provides a comprehensive analysis of 38 CMIP5 climate models to provide further evidence that models produce warming hiatus periods during warming experiments. GST rate...

  15. Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Liming

    2016-08-01

    Here I analyze the observed and projected surface temperature anomalies over land between 50°S-50°N for the period 1950–2099 by large-scale ecoregion and find strongest warming consistently and persistently seen over driest ecoregions such as the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula during various 30-year periods, pointing to desert amplification in a warming climate. This amplification enhances linearly with the global mean greenhouse gases(GHGs) radiative forcing and is attributable primarily to a stronger GHGs-enhanced downward longwave radiation forcing reaching the surface over drier ecoregions as a consequence of a warmer and thus moister atmosphere in response to increasing GHGs. These results indicate that desert amplification may represent a fundamental pattern of global warming associated with water vapor feedbacks over land in low- and mid- latitudes where surface warming rates depend inversely on ecosystem dryness. It is likely that desert amplification might involve two types of water vapor feedbacks that maximize respectively in the tropical upper troposphere and near the surface over deserts, with both being very dry and thus extremely sensitive to changes of water vapor.

  16. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto; Pepke Pedersen, Jens Olaf

    2016-06-01

    Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8 Ma ago, a possible future warming analogue. We obtain constrained estimates of CO2 and climate sensitivity before and during the PETM and of the PETM carbon input amount and nature. Sensitivity increased from 3.3-5.6 to 3.7-6.5 K (Kelvin) into the PETM. When taken together with Last Glacial Maximum and modern estimates, this result indicates climate sensitivity increase with global warming.

  17. Humboldtian science, Creole meteorology, and the discovery of human-caused climate change in South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushman, Gregory T

    2011-01-01

    The belief that human land use is capable of causing large-scale climatic change lies at the root of modern conservation thought and policy. The origins and popularization of this belief were deeply politicized. Alexander von Humboldt's treatment of the Lake Valencia basin in Venezuela and the desert coast of Peru as natural laboratories for observing the interaction between geophysical and cultural forces was central to this discovery, as was Humboldt's belief that European colonialism was especially destructive to the land. Humboldt's overt cultivation of disciples was critical to building the prestige of this discovery and popularizing the Humboldtian scientific program, which depended fundamentally on local observers, but willfully marginalized chorographic knowledge systems. In creating new, global forms of environmental understanding, Humboldtian science also generated new forms of ignorance.

  18. Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmendorf, S.C.; Henry, G.H.R.; Bjorkman, A.D.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this ap...

  19. The European climate under a 2 degrees C global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Vautard, R.; A. Gobiet; S. Sobolowski; Kjellström, E; Stegehuis, A.; Watkiss, P.; Mendlik, T.; Landgren, O.; Nikulin, G.; Teichmann, C.; D. Jacob

    2014-01-01

    A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresp...

  20. Cold months in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Räisänen, Jouni; Ylhäisi, Jussi S.

    2011-11-01

    The frequency of cold months in the 21st century is studied using the CMIP3 ensemble of climate model simulations, using month-, location- and model-specific threshold temperatures derived from the simulated 20th century climate. Unsurprisingly, cold months are projected to become less common, but not non-existent, under continued global warming. As a multi-model mean over the global land area excluding Antarctica and under the SRES A1B scenario, 14% of the months during the years 2011-2050 are simulated to be colder than the 20th century median for the same month, 1.3% colder than the 10th percentile, and 0.1% record cold. The geographic and seasonal variations in the frequency of cold months are strongly modulated by variations in the magnitude of interannual variability. Thus, for example, cold months are most infrequently simulated over the tropical oceans where the variability is smallest, not over the Arctic where the warming is largest.

  1. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  2. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto;

    2016-01-01

    Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warmin...

  3. Global genetic change tracks global climate warming in Drosophila subobscura.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balanyá, Joan; Oller, Josep M; Huey, Raymond B; Gilchrist, George W; Serra, Luis

    2006-09-22

    Comparisons of recent with historical samples of chromosome inversion frequencies provide opportunities to determine whether genetic change is tracking climate change in natural populations. We determined the magnitude and direction of shifts over time (24 years between samples on average) in chromosome inversion frequencies and in ambient temperature for populations of the fly Drosophila subobscura on three continents. In 22 of 26 populations, climates warmed over the intervals, and genotypes characteristic of low latitudes (warm climates) increased in frequency in 21 of those 22 populations. Thus, genetic change in this fly is tracking climate warming and is doing so globally.

  4. Arctic climate change: Greenhouse warming unleashed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauritsen, Thorsten

    2016-04-01

    Human activity alters the atmospheric composition, which leads to global warming. Model simulations suggest that reductions in emission of sulfur dioxide from Europe since the 1970s could have unveiled rapid Arctic greenhouse gas warming.

  5. Detecting Warming Hiatus Periods in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tony W. Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The observed slow-down in the global-mean surface temperature (GST warming from 1998 to 2012 has been called a “warming hiatus.” Certain climate models, operating under experiments which simulate warming by increasing radiative forcing, have been shown to reproduce periods which resemble the observed hiatus. The present study provides a comprehensive analysis of 38 CMIP5 climate models to provide further evidence that models produce warming hiatus periods during warming experiments. GST rates are simulated in each model for the 21st century using two experiments: a moderate warming scenario (RCP4.5 and high-end scenario (RCP8.5. Warming hiatus periods are identified in model simulations by detecting (1 ≥15-year periods lacking a statistically meaningful trend and (2 rapid changes in the GST rate which resemble the observed 1998–2012 hiatus. Under the RCP4.5 experiment, all tested models produce warming hiatus periods. However, once radiative forcing exceeds 5 W/m2—about 2°C GST increase—as simulated in the RCP8.5 experiment after 2050, nearly all models produce only positive warming trends. All models show evidence of rapid changes in the GST rate resembling the observed hiatus, showing that the climate variations associated with warming hiatus periods are still evident in the models, even under accelerated warming conditions.

  6. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  7. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  8. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurice Lineman

    Full Text Available The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV patterns for global warming (GW and Climate change (CC to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  9. The Climate Policy Narrative for a Dangerously Warming World

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanford, Todd [Union of Concerned Scientists; Frumhoff, Peter [Union of Concerned Scientists; Luers, Amy [Skoll Global Threats Fund; Gulledge, Jay [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    It is time to acknowledge that global average temperatures will likely rise above the 2 C policy target and consider how that deeply troubling prospect should affect priorities for communicating and managing the risks of a dangerously warming climate.

  10. Climate heterogeneity modulates impact of warming on tropical insects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Deutsch, Curtis A

    2012-03-01

    Evolutionary history and physiology mediate species responses to climate change. Tropical species that do not naturally experience high temperature variability have a narrow thermal tolerance compared to similar taxa at temperate latitudes and could therefore be most vulnerable to warming. However, the thermal adaptation of a species may also be influenced by spatial temperature variations over its geographical range. Spatial climate gradients, especially from topography, may also broaden thermal tolerance and therefore act to buffer warming impacts. Here we show that for low-seasonality environments, high spatial heterogeneity in temperature correlates significantly with greater warming tolerance in insects globally. Based on this relationship, we find that climate change projections of direct physiological impacts on insect fitness highlight the vulnerability of tropical lowland areas to future warming. Thus, in addition to seasonality, spatial heterogeneity may play a critical role in thermal adaptation and climate change impacts particularly in the tropics.

  11. Using Updated Climate Accounting to Slow Global Warming Before 2035

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, T.

    2015-12-01

    The current and projected worsening of climate impacts make clear the urgency of limiting the global mean temperature to 2°C over preindustrial levels. But while mitigation policy today may slow global warming at the end of the century, it will not keep global warming within these limits. This failure arises in large part from the climate accounting system used to inform this policy, which does not factor in several scientific findings from the last two decades, including: The urgent need to slow global warming before 2035. This can postpone the time the +1.5°C limit is passed, and is the only way to avoid the most serious long-term climate disruptions. That while it may mitigate warming by the end of the century, reducing emissions of CO2 alone, according to UNEP/WMO[1], will do "little to mitigate warming over the next 20-30 years," and "may temporarily enhance near-term warming as sulfate [cooling] is reduced." That the only emissions reductions that can slow warming before 2035 are focused on short-lived climate pollutants. A small increase in current mitigation funding could fund these projects, the most promising of which target emissions in regional climate "hot spots" like the Arctic and India.[2] To ensure policies can effectively slow global warming before 2035, a new climate accounting system is needed. Such an updated system is being standardized in the USA,[3] and has been proposed for use in ISO standards. The key features of this updated system are: consideration of all climate pollutants and their multi-faceted climate effects; use of time horizons which prioritize mitigation of near-term warming; a consistent and accurate accounting for "biogenic" CO2; protocols ensuring that new scientific findings are incorporated; and a distinct accounting for emissions affecting regional "hot spots". This accounting system also considers environmental impacts outside of climate change, a feature necessary to identify "win-win" projects with climate benefits

  12. Evaluating the dominant components of warming in Pliocene climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Hill

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 °C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with cloud albedo feedbacks enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with cloud albedo feedbacks in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that high latitude albedo feedbacks provide the most significant enhancements to Pliocene greenhouse warming.

  13. Robust cloud feedback over tropical land in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Ogura, Tomoo; Watanabe, Masahiro; Xie, Shang-Ping; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2016-03-01

    Cloud-related radiative perturbations over land in a warming climate are of importance for human health, ecosystem, agriculture, and industry via solar radiation availability and local warming amplification. However, robustness and physical mechanisms responsible for the land cloud feedback were not examined sufficiently because of the limited contribution to uncertainty in global climate sensitivity. Here we show that cloud feedback in general circulation models over tropical land is robust, positive, and is relevant to atmospheric circulation change and thermodynamic constraint associated with water vapor availability. In a warming climate, spatial variations in tropospheric warming associated with climatological circulation pattern result in a general weakening of tropical circulation and a dynamic reduction of land cloud during summer monsoon season. Limited increase in availability of water vapor also reduces the land cloud. The reduction of land cloud depends on global-scale oceanic warming and is not sensitive to regional warming patterns. The robust positive feedback can contribute to the warming amplification and drying over tropical land in the future.

  14. Cropping system innovation for coping with climatic warming in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aixing Deng

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available China is becoming the largest grain producing and carbon-emitting country in the world, with a steady increase in population and economic development. A review of Chinese experiences in ensuring food self-sufficiency and reducing carbon emission in the agricultural sector can provide a valuable reference for similar countries and regions. According to a comprehensive review of previous publications and recent field observations, China has experienced on average a larger and faster climatic warming trend than the global trend, and there are large uncertainties in precipitation change, which shows a non-significantly increasing trend. Existing evidence shows that the effects of climatic warming on major staple crop production in China could be markedly negative or positive, depending on the specific cropping region, season, and crop. However, historical data analysis and field warming experiments have shown that moderate warming, of less than 2.0 °C, could benefit crop production in China overall. During the most recent warming decades, China has made successful adaptations in cropping systems, such as new cultivar breeding, cropping region adjustment, and cropping practice optimization, to exploit the positive rather than to avoid the negative effects of climatic warming on crop growth. All of these successful adaptations have greatly increased crop yield, leading to higher resource use efficiency as well as greatly increased soil organic carbon content with reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Under the warming climate, China has not only achieved great successes in crop production but also realized a large advance in greenhouse gas emission mitigation. Chinese experiences in cropping system innovation for coping with climatic warming demonstrate that food security and climatic warming mitigation can be synergized through policy, knowledge, and technological innovation. With the increasingly critical status of food security and climatic warming

  15. Climate response: Strong warming at high emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frölicher, Thomas L.

    2016-09-01

    The ratio of global temperature change to cumulative emissions is relatively constant up to two trillion tonnes of carbon emissions. Now a new modelling study suggests that the concept of a constant ratio is even applicable to higher cumulative carbon emissions, with important implications for future warming.

  16. Geoengineering: Direct Mitigation of Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    For Frank Princiotta’s book, Global Climate Change—The Technology Challenge With the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) rising to levels unprecedented in the current glacial epoch, the earth’s climate system appears to be rapidly shifting into a warmer regime....

  17. Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today’s Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-01

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21st century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

  18. Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-11

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

  19. The Great Season Climatic Oscillation and the Global Warming

    CERN Document Server

    Boucenna, Ahmed

    2008-01-01

    The present earth warming up is often explained by the atmosphere gas greenhouse effect. This explanation is in contradiction with the thermodynamics second law. The warming up by greenhouse effect is quite improbable. It is cloud reflection that gives to the earth s ground its 15 degres C mean temperature. Since the reflection of the radiation by gases is negligible, the role of the atmosphere greenhouse gases in the earth warming up by earth radiation reflection loses its importance. We think that natural climatic oscillations contribute more to earth climatic disturbances. The oscillation that we hypothesize to exist has a long period (800 to 1000 years). The glacier melting and regeneration cycles lead to variations in the cold region ocean water density and thermal conductibility according to their salinity. These variations lead one to think about a macro climate oscillating between maximum hot and minimum cold temperatures. This oscillation is materialized by the passages of the planet through hot, mil...

  20. Were sauropod dinosaurs responsible for the warm Mesozoic climate?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    A.J.(Tom); van; Loon

    2012-01-01

    It was recently postulated that methane production by the giant Mesozoic sauropod dinosaurs was larger than the present-day release of this greenhouse gas by nature and man-induced activities jointly, thus contributing to the warm Mesozoic climate. This conclusion was reached by correct calculations, but these calculations were based on unrealistic assumptions:the researchers who postulated this dinosaur-induced warm climate did take into account neither the biomass production required for the sauropods’ food, nor the constraints for the habitats in which the dinosaurs lived, thus neglecting the palaeogeographic conditions. This underlines the importance of palaeogeography for a good understanding of the Earth’s geological history.

  1. Lungs in a warming world: climate change and respiratory health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernstein, Aaron S; Rice, Mary B

    2013-05-01

    Climate change is a health threat no less consequential than cigarette smoking. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and especially CO₂, in the earth's atmosphere have already warmed the planet substantially, causing more severe and prolonged heat waves, temperature variability, air pollution, forest fires, droughts, and floods, all of which put respiratory health at risk. These changes in climate and air quality substantially increase respiratory morbidity and mortality for patients with common chronic lung diseases such as asthma and COPD and other serious lung diseases. Physicians have a vital role in addressing climate change, just as they did with tobacco, by communicating how climate change is a serious, but remediable, hazard to their patients.

  2. Climatic warming and the future of bison as grazers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craine, Joseph M.; Towne, E. Gene; Miller, Mary; Fierer, Noah

    2015-11-01

    Climatic warming is likely to exacerbate nutritional stress and reduce weight gain in large mammalian herbivores by reducing plant nutritional quality. Yet accurate predictions of the effects of climatic warming on herbivores are limited by a poor understanding of how herbivore diet varies along climate gradients. We utilized DNA metabarcoding to reconstruct seasonal variation in the diet of North American bison (Bison bison) in two grasslands that differ in mean annual temperature by 6 °C. Here, we show that associated with greater nutritional stress in warmer climates, bison consistently consumed fewer graminoids and more shrubs and forbs, i.e. eudicots. Bison in the warmer grassland consumed a lower proportion of C3 grass, but not a greater proportion of C4 grass. Instead, bison diet in the warmer grassland had a greater proportion of N2-fixing eudicots, regularly comprising >60% of their protein intake in spring and fall. Although bison have been considered strict grazers, as climatic warming reduces grass protein concentrations, bison may have to attempt to compensate by grazing less and browsing more. Promotion of high-protein, palatable eudicots or increasing the protein concentrations of grasses will be critical to minimizing warming-imposed nutritional stress for bison and perhaps other large mammalian herbivores.

  3. The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sévellec, F.; Sinha, B.; Skliris, N.

    2016-08-01

    The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade-long slowdown in surface warming, the so-called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and "surges" (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a "business as usual" scenario. For "CO2 stabilisation" scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability.

  4. Implications of climate change (global warming) for the healthcare system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffa, R B; Eltoukhy, N S; Raffa, K F

    2012-10-01

    Temperature-sensitive pathogenic species and their vectors and hosts are emerging in previously colder regions as a consequence of several factors, including global warming. As a result, an increasing number of people will be exposed to pathogens against which they have not previously needed defences. We illustrate this with a specific example of recent emergence of Cryptococcus gattii infections in more temperate climates. The outbreaks in more temperate climates of the highly virulent--but usually tropically restricted--C. gattii is illustrative of an anticipated growing challenge for the healthcare system. There is a need for preparedness by healthcare professionals in anticipation and for management of such outbreaks, including other infections whose recent increased prevalence in temperate climates can be at least partly associated with global warming. (Re)emergence of temperature-sensitive pathogenic species in more temperate climates will present new challenges for healthcare systems. Preparation for outbreaks should precede their occurrence. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  5. Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Vincent S.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Anderson, Whit G.; Winton, Michael; Alexander, Michael A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Rosati, Anthony; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Rong

    2016-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment of projected global and regional ocean temperature change is based on global climate models that have coarse (˜100 km) ocean and atmosphere resolutions. In the Northwest Atlantic, the ensemble of global climate models has a warm bias in sea surface temperature due to a misrepresentation of the Gulf Stream position; thus, existing climate change projections are based on unrealistic regional ocean circulation. Here we compare simulations and an atmospheric CO2 doubling response from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmosphere resolution. We find that the highest resolution climate model (˜10 km ocean, ˜50 km atmosphere) resolves Northwest Atlantic circulation and water mass distribution most accurately. The CO2 doubling response from this model shows that upper-ocean (0-300 m) temperature in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf warms at a rate nearly twice as fast as the coarser models and nearly three times faster than the global average. This enhanced warming is accompanied by an increase in salinity due to a change in water mass distribution that is related to a retreat of the Labrador Current and a northerly shift of the Gulf Stream. Both observations and the climate model demonstrate a robust relationship between a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and an increase in the proportion of Warm-Temperate Slope Water entering the Northwest Atlantic Shelf. Therefore, prior climate change projections for the Northwest Atlantic may be far too conservative. These results point to the need to improve simulations of basin and regional-scale ocean circulation.

  6. Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Curtis A; Tewksbury, Joshua J; Huey, Raymond B; Sheldon, Kimberly S; Ghalambor, Cameron K; Haak, David C; Martin, Paul R

    2008-05-06

    The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest.

  7. Climate Warming: Is There Evidence in Africa?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hector Carcel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We have examined the temperature time series across several locations in Africa. In particular, we focus on three countries, South Africa, Kenya, and Côte d’Ivoire, examining the monthly averaged temperatures from three weather stations at different locations in each country. We examine the presence of deterministic trends in the series in order to check if the hypothesis of warming trends for these countries holds; however, instead of using conventional approaches based on stationary I(0 errors, we allow for fractional integration, which seems to be a more plausible approach in this context. Our results indicate that temperatures have only significantly increased during the last 30 years for the case of Kenya.

  8. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  9. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  10. Arctic ecosystem responses to a warming climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Lars O.

    is frozen solid for the main part of the year. However, in recent decades, arctic temperatures have in-creased between two and three times that of the global averages, which have had a substantial impact on the physical environment of the arctic ecosystem, such as deglaciation of the Greenland inland ice......’ of ecosystem re-sponses to the future global climate change....

  11. Climate Warming Threatens Semi-arid Forests in Inner Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    WU, X.; Liu, H.; Qi, Z.; Li, X.

    2014-12-01

    A line of evidences reveal an increasing tree growth decline and tree mortality mainly attributable to climate warming and the warming-mediated changes in drought and other processes (such as fire and insect dynamics) in many parts of world tropical, temperate and boreal forests. However, the growth responses to climate change of the widely distributed semi-arid forests are unclear. Here, we synthetically investigate the tree growth patterns during past decades and its interannual response to climate variations in Inner Asia combining the ground truth field survey and samplings, remote sensing observations and climate data. We identified a pervasive tree growth decline since mid-1990s in semi-arid forests in Inner Asia. The widely observed tree growth decline is dominantly attributable to warming-induced water stress during pre- and early growing season. Tree growth of semi-arid forests in Inner Asia is particularly susceptible to spring warming and has been suffering a prolonged growth limitation in recent decades due to spring warming-mediated water conditions. Additionally, we identified a much slower growth rate in younger trees and a lack of tree regeneration in these semi-arid forests. The widely observed forest growth reduction and lack of tree regeneration over semi-arid forests in Inner Asia could predictably exert great effects on forest structure, regionally/globally biophysical and biochemical processes and the feedbacks between biosphere and atmosphere. Notably, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be reasonably expected, especially in context of the increase frequency and severity of high temperature and heat waves and changes in forest disturbances, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. Given the potential risks of climate induced forest dieback, increased management attention to adaptation options for enhancing forest resistance and resilience to projected climate stress can be expected

  12. Climate warming threatens semi-arid forests in Inner Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    WU, X.

    2015-12-01

    A line of evidences reveal an increasing tree growth decline and tree mortality mainly attributable to climate warming and the warming-mediated changes in drought and other processes in many parts of world tropical, temperate and boreal forests. However, the growth responses to climate change of the widely distributed semi-arid forests are unclear. Here, we synthetically investigate the tree growth patterns during past decades and its interannual response to climate variations in Inner Asia combining the ground truth field survey and samplings, remote sensing observations and climate data. We identified a pervasive tree growth decline since mid-1990s in semi-arid forests in Inner Asia. The widely observed tree growth decline is dominantly attributable to warming-induced water stress during pre- and early growing season. Tree growth of semi-arid forests in Inner Asia is particularly susceptible to spring warming and has been suffering a prolonged growth limitation in recent decades due to spring warming-mediated water conditions. Additionally, we identified a much slower growth rate in younger trees and a lack of tree regeneration in these semi-arid forests. The widely observed forest growth reduction and lack of tree regeneration over semi-arid forests in Inner Asia could predictably exert great effects on forest structure, regionally/globally biophysical and biochemical processes and the feedbacks between biosphere and atmosphere. Notably, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be reasonably expected, especially in context of the increase frequency and severity of high temperature and heat waves and changes in forest disturbances, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. Given the potential risks of climate induced forest dieback, increased management attention to adaptation options for enhancing forest resistance and resilience to projected climate stress can be expected. However, the functionally realistic

  13. Arctic ecosystem responses to a warming climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Lars O.

    is frozen solid for the main part of the year. However, in recent decades, arctic temperatures have in-creased between two and three times that of the global averages, which have had a substantial impact on the physical environment of the arctic ecosystem, such as deglaciation of the Greenland inland ice...... sheet, loss of multiannual sea-ice and significant advances in snowmelt days. The biotic components of the arctic ecosystem have also been affected by the rapid changes in climate, for instance resulting in the collapse of the collared lemming cycle, advances in spring flowering and changes in the intra...

  14. Analysing Atmospheric Processes and Climatic Drivers of Tree Defoliation to Determine Forest Vulnerability to Climate Warming

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, J; Grau, José; de la Cruz, Ana; Gil, Paula; Minaya, Mayte; Fernández-Cancio, Ángel

    ...) as a proxy of forest health. Climate warming and drought are assumed to be the major drivers of tree growth and crown defoliation, particularly in seasonally dry areas such as the Mediterranean Basin...

  15. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-27

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.

  16. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr — not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth’s climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates — except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.

  17. Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiuhua; Bye, John; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2017-04-01

    Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.

  18. Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilczek, Amity M.; Cooper, Martha D.; Korves, Tonia M.; Schmitt, Johanna

    2014-01-01

    If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species’ native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species’ native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation. PMID:24843140

  19. Quantifying Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to Global Warming Pattern Formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, X.; Zhang, G. J.; Cai, M.

    2013-12-01

    The ';';climate feedback-response analysis method'' (CFRAM) was applied to the NCAR CCSM3.0 simulation to analyze the strength and spatial distribution of climate feedbacks and to quantify their contributions to global and regional surface temperature changes in response to a doubling of CO2. Instead of analyzing the climate sensitivity, the CFRAM directly attributes the temperature change to individual radiative and non-radiative feedbacks. The radiative feedback decomposition is based on hourly model output rather than monthly mean data that are commonly used in climate feedback analysis. This gives a more accurate quantification of the cloud and albedo feedbacks. The process-based decomposition of non-radiative feedback enables us to understand the roles of GCM physical and dynamic processes in climate change. The pattern correlation, the centered root-mean-square (RMS) difference and the ratio of variations (represented by standard deviations) between the partial surface temperature change due to each feedback process and the total surface temperature change in CCSM3.0 simulation are examined to quantify the roles of each feedback process in the global warming pattern formation. The contributions of climate feedbacks to the regional warming are also discussed.

  20. Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Huang, Yao; Ciais, Philippe; Elliott, Joshua; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A; Li, Tao; Lian, Xu; Liu, Yongwen; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Peñuelas, Josep

    2016-12-19

    Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population(1-3). Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5.2 ± 1.4% K(-1). Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (-6.3 ± 0.4% K(-1)), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (-0.8 ± 0.3% and -2.4 ± 3.7% K(-1), respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1.3% to -9.3% K(-1)). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8.3 ± 1.4% K(-1)) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4.2 to -6.4% K(-1)) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios.

  1. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael A Magris

    Full Text Available Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST data, integrating both observed (1985-2009 and projected (2010-2099 time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.

  2. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magris, Rafael A; Heron, Scott F; Pressey, Robert L

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985-2009) and projected (2010-2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.

  3. Warming Experiments Underpredict Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolkovich, E. M.; Cook, B. I.; Allen, J. M.; Crimmins, T. M.; Betancourt, J. L.; Travers, S. E.; Pau, S.; Regetz, J.; Davies, T. J.; Kraft, N. J. B.; Ault, T. R.; Bolmgren, K.; Mazer, S. J.; McCabe, G. J.; McGill, B. J.; Parmesan, C.; Salamin, N.; Schwartz, M. D.; Cleland, E. E.

    2012-01-01

    Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

  4. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magris, Rafael A.; Heron, Scott F.; Pressey, Robert L.

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985–2009) and projected (2010–2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming. PMID:26535586

  5. Narrowing of the ITCZ in a warming climate: Physical mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Michael P.; Schneider, Tapio

    2016-11-01

    The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) narrows in response to global warming in both observations and climate models. However, a physical understanding of this narrowing is lacking. Here we show that the narrowing of the ITCZ in simulations of future climate is related to changes in the moist static energy (MSE) budget. MSE advection by the mean circulation and MSE divergence by transient eddies tend to narrow the ITCZ, while changes in net energy input to the atmosphere and the gross moist stability tend to widen the ITCZ. The narrowing tendency arises because the meridional MSE gradient strengthens with warming, whereas the largest widening tendency is due to increasing shortwave heating of the atmosphere. The magnitude of the ITCZ narrowing depends strongly on the gross moist stability and clouds, emphasizing the need to better understand these fundamental processes in the tropical atmosphere.

  6. CHARACTERISTICS OF CLIMATE WARMING AND IMPACT ON CLIMATE ZONES CHANGE IN GUANGDONG

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Xin-guang; QIAN Guang-ming; CHEN Te-gu; LI Chun-mei; YU Ke-fu

    2007-01-01

    Based on temperature data in Guangdong in the past 50years, statistical methods are used to analyze the characteristics of temperature in spatial and temporal variation. The results show that land surface temperature warms by 0.16 ℃/10a in Guangdong. The range of warming was lower than the average of nationwide and global land surface. Furthermore, the temperature has a larger increase tendency in winter and spring and coastal areas than in summer and autumn and inland areas. Climate zones move towards the north obviously. North tropical zone is expanding, south subtropical zone is reducing and central subtropical zone is relatively stable. Under the global climate warming, characteristics of climate warming in Guangdong were influenced by atmosphere general circulation, sea surface temperature and human activities etc.

  7. Fast-slow climate dynamics and peak global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2016-06-01

    The dynamics of a linear two-box energy balance climate model is analyzed as a fast-slow system, where the atmosphere, land, and near-surface ocean taken together respond within few years to external forcing whereas the deep-ocean responds much more slowly. Solutions to this system are approximated by estimating the system's time-constants using a first-order expansion of the system's eigenvalue problem in a perturbation parameter, which is the ratio of heat capacities of upper and lower boxes. The solution naturally admits an interpretation in terms of a fast response that depends approximately on radiative forcing and a slow response depending on integrals of radiative forcing with respect to time. The slow response is inversely proportional to the "damping-timescale", the timescale with which deep-ocean warming influences global warming. Applications of approximate solutions are discussed: conditions for a warming peak, effects of an individual pulse emission of carbon dioxide (CO2 ), and metrics for estimating and comparing contributions of different climate forcers to maximum global warming.

  8. Fast-slow climate dynamics and peak global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-04-01

    The dynamics of a linear two-box energy balance climate model is analyzed as a fast-slow system, where the atmosphere, land, and near-surface ocean taken together respond within few years to external forcing whereas the deep-ocean responds much more slowly. Solutions to this system are approximated by estimating the system's time-constants using a first-order expansion of the system's eigenvalue problem in a perturbation parameter, which is the ratio of heat capacities of upper and lower boxes. The solution naturally admits an interpretation in terms of a fast response that depends approximately on radiative forcing and a slow response depending on integrals of radiative forcing with respect to time. The slow response is inversely proportional to the "damping-timescale", the timescale with which deep-ocean warming influences global warming. Applications of approximate solutions are discussed: conditions for a warming peak, effects of an individual pulse emission of carbon dioxide (CO2), and metrics for estimating and comparing contributions of different climate forcers to maximum global warming.

  9. Trophic level responses differ as climate warms in Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, Alison; Yu, Rong; Liu, Lingling

    2015-08-01

    Effective ecosystem functioning relies on successful species interaction. However, this delicate balance may be disrupted if species do not respond to environmental change at a similar rate. Here we examine trends in the timing of spring phenophases of groups of species occupying three trophic levels as a potential indicator of ecosystem response to climate warming in Ireland. The data sets were of varying length (1976-2009) and from varying locations: (1) timing of leaf unfolding and May Shoot of a range of broadleaf and conifer tree species, (2) first appearance dates of a range of moth species, and (3) first arrival dates of a range of spring migrant birds. All three groups revealed a statistically significant ( Psupply and demand. These differing trophic level response rates demonstrate the potential for a mismatch in the timing of interdependent phenophases as temperatures rise. Even though these data were not specifically collected to examine climate warming impacts, we conclude that such data may be used as an early warning indicator and as a means to monitor the potential for future ecosystem disruption to occur as climate warms.

  10. Data of high performance precast external walls for warm climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baglivo, Cristina; Maria Congedo, Paolo

    2015-09-01

    The data given in the following paper are related to input and output information of the paper entitled Design method of high performance precast external walls for warm climate by multi-objective optimization analysis by Baglivo et al. [1]. Previous studies demonstrate that the superficial mass and the internal areal heat capacity are necessary to reach the best performances for the envelope of the Zero Energy Buildings located in a warm climate [2-4]. The results show that it is possible to achieve high performance precast walls also with light and ultra-thin solutions. A multi-criteria optimization has been performed in terms of steady and dynamic thermal behavior, eco sustainability score and costs. The modeFRONTIER optimization tool, with the use of computational procedures developed in Matlab, has been used to assess the thermal dynamics of building components. A large set of the best configurations of precast external walls for warm climate with their physical and thermal properties have been reported in the data article.

  11. Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, John P.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; John, Jasmin G.

    2013-06-01

    A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is a global-scale increase in absolute humidity. Under continued warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly severe limitations on human activity in tropical and mid-latitudes during peak months of heat stress. One heat-stress metric with broad occupational health applications is wet-bulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis and Earth System Model (ESM2M) projections with industrial and military guidelines for an acclimated individual's occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity)--here defined as a global population-weighted metric temporally fixed at the 2010 distribution. We estimate that environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90% in peak months over the past few decades. ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to 80% in peak months by 2050. Under the highest scenario considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to less than 40% by 2200 in peak months, with most tropical and mid-latitudes experiencing extreme climatological heat stress. Uncertainties and caveats associated with these projections include climate sensitivity, climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population distributions, and technological and societal change.

  12. Atlantic Warm Pool Trigger for the Younger Dryas Climate Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.; Teneva, L. T.

    2011-12-01

    There is growing evidence that variability in the size and heat content of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool impacts circum-North Atlantic climate via the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation mode (Wang et al., 2008). The Atlantic Warm Pool spans the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the western tropical North Atlantic. Barbados is located near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool and coupled ocean models suggest that Barbados remains near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool under varying wind stress simulations. Measurements of the oxygen isotope paleothermometer in Acropora palmata coral species recovered from cores offshore Barbados, show a 3oC monotonic decrease in sea surface temperature from 13106 ± 83 to 12744 ± 61 years before present (errors given as 2 sigma). This interval corresponds to a sea level rise from 71.4 meters to 67.1 meters below present levels at Barbados. The 3oC temperature decrease is captured in eight A. palmata specimens that are in stratigraphic sequence, 230Th/234U dated, and analyzed for oxygen isotopes. All measurements are replicated. We are confident that this is the warm pool equivalent of the Younger Dryas climate event. The initiation of this temperature drop in the Atlantic Warm Pool predates the Younger Dryas start in Greenland ice cores, reported to start at 12896 ± 138 years (relative to AD 2000) (Rasmussen et al., 2006), while few other Younger Dryas climate records are dated with similar accuracy to make the comparison. Rasmussen, S.O., Andersen, K.K., Svensson, A.M., Steffensen, J.P., Vinther, B.M., Clausen, H.B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.L., Johnsen, S.J., Larsen, L.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M.E., and Ruth, U., 2006, A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination: J. Geophys. Res., v. 111, p. D06102. Wang, C., Lee, S.-K., and Enfield, D.B., 2008, Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal

  13. Shifting suitability for malaria vectors across Africa with warming climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peterson A Townsend

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Climates are changing rapidly, producing warm climate conditions globally not previously observed in modern history. Malaria is of great concern as a cause of human mortality and morbidity, particularly across Africa, thanks in large part to the presence there of a particularly competent suite of mosquito vector species. Methods I derive spatially explicit estimates of human populations living in regions newly suitable climatically for populations of two key Anopheles gambiae vector complex species in Africa over the coming 50 years, based on ecological niche model projections over two global climate models, two scenarios of climate change, and detailed spatial summaries of human population distributions. Results For both species, under all scenarios, given the changing spatial distribution of appropriate conditions and the current population distribution, the models predict a reduction of 11.3–30.2% in the percentage of the overall population living in areas climatically suitable for these vector species in coming decades, but reductions and increases are focused in different regions: malaria vector suitability is likely to decrease in West Africa, but increase in eastern and southern Africa. Conclusion Climate change effects on African malaria vectors shift their distributional potential from west to east and south, which has implications for overall numbers of people exposed to these vector species. Although the total is reduced, malaria is likely to pose novel public health problems in areas where it has not previously been common.

  14. THE CLIMATIC JUMP OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL AND ITS CLIMATIC EFFECTS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵永平; 吴爱明; 陈永利; 胡敦欣

    2003-01-01

    The climatic jump of the western Pacific warm pool and its climatic effects were analyzed using the SST (COADS, NCEP) datasets. The results show that the warm pool has significant interdecadal variability with periods of 10 to 20 years and four major climatic jumps with periods of 40 to 50 years for a time dating back for more than 100 years, which happened in the 1910's, 1930's, 1950's and 1980's. The warm pool jumps have important climatic effects. After the jumps,the SST increases by about 0.5(C in central and eastern tropical Pacific; the Pacific subtropical high at 500 hPa strengthens and goes southwestward, the precipitation bands tend to be in southern China. The results also show that El Ni?oevent will happen more often than the La Ni?a event when the warm pool anomalously develops, and the La Ni?a event will happen more often than the El Ni?o event when the warm pool anomalously declines. Over the recent 40-to-50 year period,the warm pool is still in its strengthening stage and it is possible that the drought in northern China will continue in the first decade of 21st century.

  15. How to preserve the tundra in a warming climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Käyhkö, Jukka

    2014-05-01

    The warming climate of the polar regions may change much of the current arctic-alpine tundra to forest or dense scrubland. This modification requires adaptation by traditional livelihoods such as reindeer herding, which relies on diverse, seasonal pasturelands. Vegetation change may also trigger positive warming feedbacks, where more abundant forest-scrub vegetation will decrease the global albedo. NCoE Tundra team investigates the complex climate-animal-plant interaction of the tundra ecosystem and aim to unravel the capability of herbivorous mammals to control the expansion of woody vegetation. Our interdisciplinary approach involves several work packages, whose results will be summarised in the presentation. In the ecological WPs, we study the dynamics of the natural food chains involving small herbivorous and the impacts of reindeer on the vegetation and the population dynamics of those arctic-alpine plants, which are most likely to become threatened in a warmer climate. Our study demonstrates the potential of a relatively sparse reindeer stocks (2-5 heads per km2) together with natural populations of arvicoline rodents to prevent the expansion of erect woody plants at the arctic-alpine timberline. In the climatic WPs we study the impact of grazing-dependent vegetation differences on the fraction of solar energy converted to heat. In the socio-economic WPs, we study the conditions for maintaining the economic and cultural viability of reindeer herding while managing the land use so that the arctic-alpine biota would be preserved.

  16. Accelerated phenology of blacklegged ticks under climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Taal; Keesing, Felicia; Oggenfuss, Kelly; Ostfeld, Richard S

    2015-04-01

    The phenology of tick emergence has important implications for the transmission of tick-borne pathogens. A long lag between the emergence of tick nymphs in spring and larvae in summer should increase transmission of persistent pathogens by allowing infected nymphs to inoculate the population of naive hosts that can subsequently transmit the pathogen to larvae to complete the transmission cycle. In contrast, greater synchrony between nymphs and larvae should facilitate transmission of pathogens that do not produce long-lasting infections in hosts. Here, we use 19 years of data on blacklegged ticks attached to small-mammal hosts to quantify the relationship between climate warming and tick phenology. Warmer years through May and August were associated with a nearly three-week advance in the phenology of nymphal and larval ticks relative to colder years, with little evidence of increased synchrony. Warmer Octobers were associated with fewer larvae feeding concurrently with nymphs during the following spring. Projected warming by the 2050s is expected to advance the timing of average nymph and larva activity by 8-11 and 10-14 days, respectively. If these trends continue, climate warming should maintain or increase transmission of persistent pathogens, while it might inhibit pathogens that do not produce long-lasting infections.

  17. Accelerated phenology of blacklegged ticks under climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Taal; Keesing, Felicia; Oggenfuss, Kelly; Ostfeld, Richard S.

    2015-01-01

    The phenology of tick emergence has important implications for the transmission of tick-borne pathogens. A long lag between the emergence of tick nymphs in spring and larvae in summer should increase transmission of persistent pathogens by allowing infected nymphs to inoculate the population of naive hosts that can subsequently transmit the pathogen to larvae to complete the transmission cycle. In contrast, greater synchrony between nymphs and larvae should facilitate transmission of pathogens that do not produce long-lasting infections in hosts. Here, we use 19 years of data on blacklegged ticks attached to small-mammal hosts to quantify the relationship between climate warming and tick phenology. Warmer years through May and August were associated with a nearly three-week advance in the phenology of nymphal and larval ticks relative to colder years, with little evidence of increased synchrony. Warmer Octobers were associated with fewer larvae feeding concurrently with nymphs during the following spring. Projected warming by the 2050s is expected to advance the timing of average nymph and larva activity by 8–11 and 10–14 days, respectively. If these trends continue, climate warming should maintain or increase transmission of persistent pathogens, while it might inhibit pathogens that do not produce long-lasting infections. PMID:25688016

  18. Modelling middle pliocene warm climates of the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, A.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Sellwood, B.W.; Kaplan, J.O.; Dowsett, H.J.

    2001-01-01

    The middle Pliocene warm period represents a unique time slice in which to model and understand climatic processes operating under a warm climatic regime. Palaeoclimatic model simulations, focussed on the United States of America (USA), for the middle Pliocene (ca 3 Ma) were generated using the USGS PRISM2 2?? ?? 2?? data set of boundary conditions and the UK Meteorological Office's HadAMS General Circulation Model (GCM). Model results suggest that conditions in the USA during the middle Pliocene can be characterised as annually warmer (by 2?? to 4??C), less seasonal, wetter (by a maximum of 4 to 8 mm/day) and with an absence of freezing winters over the central and southern Great Plains. A sensitivity experiment suggests that the main forcing mechanisms for surface temperature changes in near coastal areas are the imposed Pliocene sea surface temperatures (SST's). In interior regions, reduced Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ice, combined with less snow cover and a reduction in the elevation of the western cordillera of North America, generate atmospheric circulation changes and positive albedo feedbacks that raise surface temperatures. A complex set of climatic feedback mechanisms cause an enhancement of the hydrological cycle magnifying the moisture bearing westerly wind belt during the winter season (Dec., Jan., Feb.). Predictions produced by the model are in broad agreement with available geological evidence. However, the GCM appears to underestimate precipitation levels in the interior and central regions of the southern USA. Copyright: Palaeontological Association, 22 June 2001.

  19. Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, James J.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Schmidt, Travis S.; Walters, David M.

    2017-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

  20. Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, Patrick L.; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies. PMID:26495037

  1. Vascular plants promote ancient peatland carbon loss with climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Tom N; Garnett, Mark H; Ward, Susan E; Oakley, Simon; Bardgett, Richard D; Ostle, Nicholas J

    2016-05-01

    Northern peatlands have accumulated one third of the Earth's soil carbon stock since the last Ice Age. Rapid warming across northern biomes threatens to accelerate rates of peatland ecosystem respiration. Despite compensatory increases in net primary production, greater ecosystem respiration could signal the release of ancient, century- to millennia-old carbon from the peatland organic matter stock. Warming has already been shown to promote ancient peatland carbon release, but, despite the key role of vegetation in carbon dynamics, little is known about how plants influence the source of peatland ecosystem respiration. Here, we address this issue using in situ (14)C measurements of ecosystem respiration on an established peatland warming and vegetation manipulation experiment. Results show that warming of approximately 1 °C promotes respiration of ancient peatland carbon (up to 2100 years old) when dwarf-shrubs or graminoids are present, an effect not observed when only bryophytes are present. We demonstrate that warming likely promotes ancient peatland carbon release via its control over organic inputs from vascular plants. Our findings suggest that dwarf-shrubs and graminoids prime microbial decomposition of previously 'locked-up' organic matter from potentially deep in the peat profile, facilitating liberation of ancient carbon as CO2. Furthermore, such plant-induced peat respiration could contribute up to 40% of ecosystem CO2 emissions. If consistent across other subarctic and arctic ecosystems, this represents a considerable fraction of ecosystem respiration that is currently not acknowledged by global carbon cycle models. Ultimately, greater contribution of ancient carbon to ecosystem respiration may signal the loss of a previously stable peatland carbon pool, creating potential feedbacks to future climate change.

  2. Measure Guideline: Supplemental Dehumidification in Warm-Humid Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rudd, Armin [Building Science Corporation, Somerville, MA (United States)

    2014-10-01

    This document covers a description of the need and applied solutions for supplemental dehumidification in warm-humid climates, especially for energy efficient homes where the sensible cooling load has been dramatically reduced. Cooling loads are typically high and cooling equipment runs a lot to cool the air in older homes in warm-humid climates. The cooling process also removes indoor moisture, reducing indoor relative humidity. However, at current residential code levels, and especially for above-code programs, sensible cooling loads have been so dramatically reduced that the cooling system does not run a lot to cool the air, resulting in much less moisture being removed. In these new homes, cooling equipment is off for much longer periods of time especially during spring/fall seasons, summer shoulder months, rainy periods, some summer nights, and winter days. In warm-humid climates, those long-off periods allow indoor humidity to become elevated due to internally generated moisture and ventilation air change. Elevated indoor relative humidity impacts comfort, indoor air quality, and building material durability. Industry is responding with supplemental dehumidification options, but that effort is really in its infancy regarding year-round humidity control in low-energy homes. Available supplemental humidity control options are discussed. Some options are less expensive but may not control indoor humidity as well as more expensive and comprehensive options. The best performing option is one that avoids overcooling and adding unnecessary heat to the space by using waste heat from the cooling system to reheat the cooled and dehumidified air to room-neutral temperature.

  3. Measure Guideline: Supplemental Dehumidification in Warm-Humid Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rudd, A.

    2014-10-01

    This document covers a description of the need and applied solutions for supplemental dehumidification in warm-humid climates, especially for energy efficient homes where the sensible cooling load has been dramatically reduced. In older homes in warm-humid climates, cooling loads are typically high and cooling equipment runs a lot to cool the air. The cooling process also removes indoor moisture, reducing indoor relative humidity. However, at current residential code levels, and especially for above-code programs, sensible cooling loads have been so dramatically reduced that the cooling system does not run a lot to cool the air, resulting in much less moisture being removed. In these new homes, cooling equipment is off for much longer periods of time especially during spring/fall seasons, summer shoulder months, rainy periods, some summer nights, and some winter days. In warm-humid climates, those long off periods allow indoor humidity to become elevated due to internally generated moisture and ventilation air change. Elevated indoor relative humidity impacts comfort, indoor air quality, and building material durability. Industry is responding with supplemental dehumidification options, but that effort is really in its infancy regarding year-round humidity control in low-energy homes. Available supplemental humidity control options are discussed. Some options are less expensive but may not control indoor humidity as well as more expensive and comprehensive options. The best performing option is one that avoids overcooling and avoids adding unnecessary heat to the space by using waste heat from the cooling system to reheat the cooled and dehumidified air to room-neutral temperature.

  4. The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J T; Liu, H; Flanner, M G; Chambers, S D; Jin, Y; Hess, P G; Pfister, G; Mack, M C; Treseder, K K; Welp, L R; Chapin, F S; Harden, J W; Goulden, M L; Lyons, E; Neff, J C; Schuur, E A G; Zender, C S

    2006-11-17

    We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 +/- 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 +/- 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

  5. Effects of in situ climate warming on monarch caterpillar (Danaus plexippus) development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemoine, Nathan P; Capdevielle, Jillian N; Parker, John D

    2015-01-01

    Climate warming will fundamentally alter basic life history strategies of many ectothermic insects. In the lab, rising temperatures increase growth rates of lepidopteran larvae but also reduce final pupal mass and increase mortality. Using in situ field warming experiments on their natural host plants, we assessed the impact of climate warming on development of monarch (Danaus plexippus) larvae. Monarchs were reared on Asclepias tuberosa grown under 'Ambient' and 'Warmed' conditions. We quantified time to pupation, final pupal mass, and survivorship. Warming significantly decreased time to pupation, such that an increase of 1 °C corresponded to a 0.5 day decrease in pupation time. In contrast, survivorship and pupal mass were not affected by warming. Our results indicate that climate warming will speed the developmental rate of monarchs, influencing their ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, the effects of climate warming on larval development in other monarch populations and at different times of year should be investigated.

  6. Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Robert G. Björk; Anne D. Bjorkman; Terry V. Callaghan; [and others] NO-VALUE; William Gould; Joel Mercado

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty...

  7. Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

    2017-04-01

    The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

  8. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

  9. Are Sierran Lakes Warming as a Result of Climate Change? The Effects of Climate Warming and Variation in Precipitation on Water Temperature in a Snowmelt-Dominated Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadro, S.; Melack, J. M.; Sickman, J. O.; Skeen, K.

    2016-12-01

    Water temperature regulates a broad range of fundamental ecosystem processes in lakes. While climate can be an important factor regulating lake temperatures, heterogeneity in the warming response of lakes is large, and variation in precipitation is rarely considered. We analyzed three decades of climate and water temperature data from a high-elevation catchment in the southern Sierra Nevada of California to illustrate the magnitude of warming taking place during different seasons and the role of precipitation in regulating lake temperatures. Significant climate warming trends were evident during all seasons except spring. Nighttime rates of climate warming were approximately 25% higher than daytime rates. Spatial patterns in warming were elevation dependent, with rates of temperature increase higher at sites above 2800 m.a.s.l. than below. Although interannual variation in snow deposition was high, the frequency and severity of recent droughts has contributed to a significant 3.4 mm year -1 decline in snow water equivalent over the last century. Snow accumulation, more than any other climate factor, regulated lake temperature; 94% of variation in summer lake temperature was regulated by precipitation as snow. For every 100 mm decrease in snow water equivalent there was a 0.62 ° increase in lake temperature. Drought years amplify warming in lakes by reducing the role of cold spring meltwaters in lake energy budgets and prolonging the ice-free period during which lakes warm. The combination of declining winter snowpack and warming air temperatures has the capacity to amplify the effect of climate warming on lake temperatures during drought years. Interactions among climatic factors need to be considered when evaluating ecosystem level effects, especially in mountain regions. For mountain lakes already affected by drought, continued climate warming during spring and autumn has the greatest potential to impact mean lake temperatures.

  10. California golden trout and climate change: Is their stream habitat vulnerable to climate warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathleen R. Matthews

    2010-01-01

    The California golden trout (CGT) Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita is one of the few native high-elevation fish in the Sierra Nevada. They are already in trouble because of exotic trout, genetic introgression, and degraded habitat, and now face further stress from climate warming. Their native habitat on the Kern Plateau meadows mostly in the Golden...

  11. Estimating the potential for adaptation of corals to climate warming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaus B M Császár

    Full Text Available The persistence of tropical coral reefs is threatened by rapidly increasing climate warming, causing a functional breakdown of the obligate symbiosis between corals and their algal photosymbionts (Symbiodinium through a process known as coral bleaching. Yet the potential of the coral-algal symbiosis to genetically adapt in an evolutionary sense to warming oceans is unknown. Using a quantitative genetics approach, we estimated the proportion of the variance in thermal tolerance traits that has a genetic basis (i.e. heritability as a proxy for their adaptive potential in the widespread Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora. We chose two physiologically different populations that associate respectively with one thermo-tolerant (Symbiodinium clade D and one less tolerant symbiont type (Symbiodinium C2. In both symbiont types, pulse amplitude modulated (PAM fluorometry and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC analysis revealed significant heritabilities for traits related to both photosynthesis and photoprotective pigment profile. However, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR assays showed a lack of heritability in both coral host populations for their own expression of fundamental stress genes. Coral colony growth, contributed to by both symbiotic partners, displayed heritability. High heritabilities for functional key traits of algal symbionts, along with their short clonal generation time and high population sizes allow for their rapid thermal adaptation. However, the low overall heritability of coral host traits, along with the corals' long generation time, raise concern about the timely adaptation of the coral-algal symbiosis in the face of continued rapid climate warming.

  12. Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piontek, Franziska; Mueller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; deJesusColonGonzalez, Felipe; Floerke, Martina; Folberth, Christian; Franssen, Wietse; Frieler, Katja; Friend, Andrew D.; Gosling, Simon N.; Hemming, Deborah; Khabarov, Nikolay; Kim, Hyungjun; Lomas, Mark R.; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Mengel, Matthias; Morse, Andrew; Neumann, Kathleen; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Ruane, Alex C.

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

  13. Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piontek, Franziska; Müller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Colón González, Felipe de Jesus; Flörke, Martina; Folberth, Christian; Franssen, Wietse; Frieler, Katja; Friend, Andrew D.; Gosling, Simon N.; Hemming, Deborah; Khabarov, Nikolay; Kim, Hyungjun; Lomas, Mark R.; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Mengel, Matthias; Morse, Andrew; Neumann, Kathleen; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Ruane, Alex C.; Schewe, Jacob; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Tessler, Zachary D.; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Warszawski, Lila; Wisser, Dominik; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 °C above the 1980–2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 °C. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty. PMID:24344270

  14. Changes in tropical circulation in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, C.

    2013-12-01

    Precipitation is experiencing a great change under global warming. Two major processes induced changes in precipitation are thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. The former is related to changes in water vapor and the latter is associated with changes in vertical velocity. Since water vapor increases almost everywhere, the thermodynamic contribution is determined by the corresponding mean vertical motion: positive for ascents and negative for descents, which creates a 'wet-get-wetter and dry-get-drier' tendency. The dynamic contribution, on the other hand, is much more complicated, especially on a regional basis. For a global average, all climate models in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 show a robust weakening of tropical circulation, while observed changes in tropical circulation are inconsistent among data sets. A fundamental explanation for changes in tropical circulation is related to atmospheric stability. In a warmer climate, the upper troposphere warms up faster than the lower troposphere, so dry static stability increases. Thus, the atmosphere should become more stable and the corresponding tropical circulation weakens. However, a more physically-sound index, moist static stability, shows very scattering changes in global-warming simulations. In other words, the atmosphere can become either more stable or more unstable if considering the effect of water vapor. Here we introduce a new effect associated with convection depth by proposing another index, gross moist stability, to measure changes in atmospheric stability under global warming. The gross moist stability, an effective static stability, is vertical integral of the vertical gradient of moist static energy weighted by pressure velocity. It depends not only on the vertical gradient of dry static energy, which is equivalent to dry static stability, but also on moisture vertical distribution and convection depth. The effects of dry static energy and convection depth stabilize the atmosphere, while the moisture

  15. Amblyomma ticks and future climate: Range contraction due to climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Stefan Vilges de; Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Martins, Thiago Fernandes; Santos, Janduhy Pereira Dos; Labruna, Marcelo B; Gazeta, Gilberto Salles; Escobar, Luis E; Gurgel-Gonçalves, Rodrigo

    2017-09-01

    Ticks of the Amblyomma cajennense species complex are important vectors of spotted fever in Latin America. Environmental conditions determine the geographic distribution of ticks, such that climate change could influence the distribution of tick-borne diseases. This study aimed to analyze the potential geographic distribution of A. cajennense complex ticks in a Brazil region under present-day and future climate models, assuming dispersal limitations and non-evolutionary adaptation of these tick populations to climate warming. Records of A. cajennense sensu stricto (s.s.) and Amblyomma sculptum were analyzed. Niche models were calibrated using Maxent considering climate variables for 1950-2000 and projecting models to conditions anticipated for 2050 and 2070 under two models of future climate (CCSM4 and HadGEM2-AO). Broad suitable areas for A. cajennense s.s. and A. sculptum were found in present-day climate models, but suitability was reduced when models were projected to future conditions. Our exploration of future climates showed that broad areas had novel climates not existing currently in the study region, including novel extremely high temperatures. Indeed, predicted suitability in these novel conditions would lead to biologically unrealistic results and therefore incorrect forecasts of future tick-distribution. Previous studies anticipating expansions of vectors populations due to climate change should be considered with caution as they assume that model extrapolation anticipates that species would evolve rapidly for adaptation to novel climatic conditions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Warming effects on the urban hydrology in cold climate regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Järvi, L; Grimmond, C S B; McFadden, J P; Christen, A; Strachan, I B; Taka, M; Warsta, L; Heimann, M

    2017-07-19

    While approximately 338 million people in the Northern hemisphere live in regions that are regularly snow covered in winter, there is little hydro-climatologic knowledge in the cities impacted by snow. Using observations and modelling we have evaluated the energy and water exchanges of four cities that are exposed to wintertime snow. We show that the presence of snow critically changes the impact that city design has on the local-scale hydrology and climate. After snow melt, the cities return to being strongly controlled by the proportion of built and vegetated surfaces. However in winter, the presence of snow masks the influence of the built and vegetated fractions. We show how inter-year variability of wintertime temperature can modify this effect of snow. With increasing temperatures, these cities could be pushed towards very different partitioning between runoff and evapotranspiration. We derive the dependency of wintertime runoff on this warming effect in combination with the effect of urban densification.

  17. Unexpected response of high Alpine Lake waters to climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thies, Hansjörg; Nickus, Ulrike; Mair, Volkmar; Tessadri, Richard; Tait, Danilo; Thaler, Bertha; Psenner, Roland

    2007-11-01

    Over the past two decades, we have observed a substantial rise in solute concentration at two remote high mountain lakes in catchments of metamorphic rocks in the European Alps. At Rasass See, the electrical conductivity increased 18-fold. Unexpectedly high nickel concentrations at Rasass See, which exceeded the limit in drinking water by more than 1 order of magnitude, cannot be related to catchment geology. We attribute these changes in lake water quality to solute release from the ice of an active rock glacier in the catchment as a response to climate warming. Similar processes occurred at the higher elevation lake Schwarzsee ob Sölden, where electrical conductivity has risen 3-fold during the past two decades.

  18. Thermal tolerance and climate warming sensitivity in tropical snails.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, David J; Rezende, Enrico L; Baharuddin, Nursalwa; Choi, Francis; Helmuth, Brian

    2015-12-01

    Tropical ectotherms are predicted to be especially vulnerable to climate change because their thermal tolerance limits generally lie close to current maximum air temperatures. This prediction derives primarily from studies on insects and lizards and remains untested for other taxa with contrasting ecologies. We studied the HCT (heat coma temperatures) and ULT (upper lethal temperatures) of 40 species of tropical eulittoral snails (Littorinidae and Neritidae) inhabiting exposed rocky shores and shaded mangrove forests in Oceania, Africa, Asia and North America. We also estimated extremes in animal body temperature at each site using a simple heat budget model and historical (20 years) air temperature and solar radiation data. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that HCT and ULT exhibit limited adaptive variation across habitats (mangroves vs. rocky shores) or geographic locations despite their contrasting thermal regimes. Instead, the elevated heat tolerance of these species (HCT = 44.5 ± 1.8°C and ULT = 52.1 ± 2.2°C) seems to reflect the extreme temperature variability of intertidal systems. Sensitivity to climate warming, which was quantified as the difference between HCT or ULT and maximum body temperature, differed greatly between snails from sunny (rocky shore; Thermal Safety Margin, TSM = -14.8 ± 3.3°C and -6.2 ± 4.4°C for HCT and ULT, respectively) and shaded (mangrove) habitats (TSM = 5.1 ± 3.6°C and 12.5 ± 3.6°C). Negative TSMs in rocky shore animals suggest that mortality is likely ameliorated during extreme climatic events by behavioral thermoregulation. Given the low variability in heat tolerance across species, habitat and geographic location account for most of the variation in TSM and may adequately predict the vulnerability to climate change. These findings caution against generalizations on the impact of global warming across ectothermic taxa and highlight how the consideration of nonmodel animals, ecological transitions

  19. Defining the Sudden Stratospheric Warming in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Son, S. W.; Gerber, E. P.; Park, H. S.

    2016-12-01

    A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as zonal-mean zonal wind reversal at 10 hPa and 60°N, associated with a reversal of the climatological temperature gradient at this elevation. This wind criterion in particular has been applied to reanalysis data and climate model output during the last few decades. In the present study, it is shown that the application of this definition to models can be affected by model mean biases; i.e., more frequent SSW appears to occur in models with a weaker climatological polar vortex. In order to overcome this deficiency, a tendency-based definition, which is not sensitive to the model mean bias, is proposed and applied to the multi-model data sets archived for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection phase 5 (CMIP5). In this definition, SSW-like events are defined by sufficiently strong vortex deceleration. This approach removes a linear relationship between the SSW frequency and intensity of climatological polar vortex for both the low-top and high-top CMIP5 models. Instead, the resulting SSW frequency is strongly correlated with wave activity at 100 hPa. The two definitions detect quantitatively different SSW in terms of lower stratospheric wave activity and downward propagation of stratospheric anomalies to the troposphere. However, in both definitions, the high-top models generally exhibit more frequent SSW than the low-top models. Moreover, a hint of more frequent SSW in a warm climate is commonly found.

  20. Potential trends in snowmelt-generated peak streamflows in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rui; Kumar, Mukesh; Link, Timothy E.

    2016-05-01

    Previously reported impacts of climate warming on streamflow peaks are varied, and the controls on the variations remain unclear. Using physically based linked snowpack and watershed hydrological models, we evaluated the potential changes in seasonal snowmelt-generated streamflow peak (Qmax) due to warming in a small semiarid mountain watershed. Results suggest that the trend in Qmax with warming is strongly governed by the conversion of precipitation phase, accumulated snow amount prior to the melt season, and snowmelt rate during the ablation period. Under a warming climate, the trend in Qmax is expected to be decreasing for relatively warm regions but increasing for cold regions. Climate regimes that are most susceptible to dominant precipitation phase transitions from snow to rain are likely to experience larger decreases in Qmax with warming. This study serves as a first step toward assessing the varied impacts on Qmax due to warming vis-a-vis the specific catchment hydroclimatology.

  1. Climate model and proxy data constraints on ocean warming across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dunkley Jones, T.; Lunt, D.J.; Schmidt, D.N.; Ridgwell, A.; Sluijs, A.; Valdes, P.J.; Maslin, M.

    2013-01-01

    Constraining the greenhouse gas forcing, climatic warming and estimates of climate sensitivity across ancient large transient warming events is a major challenge to the palaeoclimate research community. Here we provide a new compilation and synthesis of the available marine proxy temperature data ac

  2. THE CLIMATE FEATURES OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WARM POOL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    There exists a warm pool in the South China Sea (SCS). The temporal and spatial distribution and evolution of SCS warm pool is investigated using water temperatures at a depth of 20 m in the sea. The formation of the warm pool is discussed by combining water temperatures with geostrophic currents and simulated oceanic circulation. It is found that there are significant seasonal and interannual changes in the warm pool and in association with the general circulation of the atmosphere. The development of SCS warm pool is also closely related to the gyre activities in the sea and imported warm water from Indian Ocean (Java Sea) besides radiative warming.

  3. Changes in the Tsushima Warm Current and the Impact under a Global Warming Scenario in Coupled Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A-Ra Choi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigated changes in the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC under the global warming scenario RCP 4.5 by analysing the results from the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5. Among the four models that had been employed to analyse the Tsushima Warm Current during the 20th Century, in the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and HadGEM2-CC models the transports of the Tsushima Warm Current were 2.8 Sv and 2.1 Sv, respectively, and comparable to observed transport, which is between 2.4 and 2.77 Sv. In the other two models the transports were much greater or smaller than the observed estimates. Using the two models that properly reproduced the transport of the Tsushima Warm Current we investigated the response of the current under the global warming scenario. In both models the volume transports and the temperature were greater in the future climate scenario. Warm advection into the East Sea was intensified to raise the temperature and consequently the heat loss to the air.

  4. Radiative forcing and feedback by forests in warm climates - a sensitivity study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Port, Ulrike; Claussen, Martin; Brovkin, Victor

    2016-07-01

    We evaluate the radiative forcing of forests and the feedbacks triggered by forests in a warm, basically ice-free climate and in a cool climate with permanent high-latitude ice cover using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model. As a paradigm for a warm climate, we choose the early Eocene, some 54 to 52 million years ago, and for the cool climate, the pre-industrial climate, respectively. To isolate first-order effects, we compare idealised simulations in which all continents are covered either by dense forests or by deserts with either bright or dark soil. In comparison with desert continents covered by bright soil, forested continents warm the planet for the early Eocene climate and for pre-industrial conditions. The warming can be attributed to different feedback processes, though. The lapse-rate and water-vapour feedback is stronger for the early Eocene climate than for the pre-industrial climate, but strong and negative cloud-related feedbacks nearly outweigh the positive lapse-rate and water-vapour feedback for the early Eocene climate. Subsequently, global mean warming by forests is weaker for the early Eocene climate than for pre-industrial conditions. Sea-ice related feedbacks are weak for the almost ice-free climate of the early Eocene, thereby leading to a weaker high-latitude warming by forests than for pre-industrial conditions. When the land is covered with dark soils, and hence, albedo differences between forests and soil are small, forests cool the early Eocene climate more than the pre-industrial climate because the lapse-rate and water-vapour feedbacks are stronger for the early Eocene climate. Cloud-related feedbacks are equally strong in both climates. We conclude that radiative forcing by forests varies little with the climate state, while most subsequent feedbacks depend on the climate state.

  5. Enhanced MJO and transition to superrotation in warm climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2016-03-01

    Using the NCAR CAM3 model in aquaplanet configuration, we perform a suite of simulations spanning a broad range of warm climates. The simulations show a spontaneous transition to superrotation, i.e., westerly winds at upper levels above the equator. The momentum convergence leading to superrotation is driven by eastward-propagating equatorial waves with structure similar to the modern Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), whose amplitude increases strongly with temperature. We analyze the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the model's MJO to identify mechanisms leading to its enhanced amplitude. Two such mechanisms are identified: a rapid increase of mean low-level MSE with rising temperature, as found in previous work, and reduced damping of the MJO by synoptic-scale eddies. Both effects imply a reduced gross moist stability and enhanced MJO amplitude. The reduced eddy damping is caused by the transition to superrotation, which allows a greater penetration of extratropical eddies into the equatorial zone; the dominant effect of this greater penetration is to flatten the meridional gradient zonal-mean MSE, which effectively impedes the generation of anomalous MSE divergence by MJO-modulated eddies. This mechanism implies a positive feedback between superrotation and the MJO which may hasten the transition into a strongly superrotating state.

  6. Ocean Global Warming Impacts on the South America Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Da-Silva, Renato

    2016-03-01

    The global Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model (OLAM) model was used to estimate the impacts of the global oceanic warming on the climate projections for the 21st Century focusing on the South America region. This new model is able to represent simultaneously the global and regional scales using a refining grid approach for the region of interest. First, the model was run for a 31-year control period consisting on the years 1960-1990 using the monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) data as a driver for the ocean fluxes. Then, the model was run for the period 2010-2100 using the monthly projected SST from the Hadley Center model (HadCM3) as a driver for the oceanic changes. The model was set up with an icosahedral triangular global grid having about 250 km of grid spacing and with a refining grid resolution with the cells reaching about 32 km over the South America region. The results show an overall temperature increase mainly over the center of the Amazon basin caused by the increase of the greenhouse effect of the water vapor; a decrease on precipitation mainly over the northeast Brazil and an increase in the south and over the western Amazon region; and a major increase on the near surface wind speed. These results are similar to the global coupled models; however, OLAM has a novel type of grid that can provide the interaction between the global and regional scales simultaneously.

  7. Ocean Global Warming Impacts on the South America Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato eRamos-Da-Silva

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The global Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model (OLAM model was used to estimate the impacts of the global oceanic warming on the climate projections for the 21st Century focusing on the South America region. This new model is able to represent simultaneously the global and regional scales using a refining grid approach for the region of interest. First, the model was run for a 31-year control period consisting on the years 1960-1990 using the monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP data as a driver for the ocean fluxes. Then, the model was run for the period 2010-2100 using the monthly projected SST from the Hadley Center model (HadCM3 as a driver for the oceanic changes. The model was set up with an icosahedral triangular global grid having about 250 km of grid spacing and with a refining grid resolution with the cells reaching about 32 km over the South America region. The results show an overall temperature increase mainly over the center of the Amazon basin caused by the increase of the greenhouse effect of the water vapor; a decrease on precipitation mainly over the northeast Brazil and an increase in the south and over the western Amazon region; and a major increase on the near surface wind speed. These results are similar to the global coupled models; however, OLAM has a novel type of grid that can provide the interaction between the global and regional scales simultaneously.

  8. Temperature adaptation of soil bacterial communities along an Antarctic climate gradient: predicting responses to climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinnan, Riikka; Rousk, Johannes; Yergeau, Etienne;

    2009-01-01

    the leucine incorporation technique, in order to predict future changes in temperature sensitivity of resident soil bacterial communities. Soil samples were collected along a climate gradient consisting of locations on the Antarctic Peninsula (Anchorage Island, 67 °34'S, 68 °08'W), Signy Island (60 °43'S, 45......Soil microorganisms, the central drivers of terrestrial Antarctic ecosystems, are being confronted with increasing temperatures as parts of the continent experience considerable warming. Here we determined short-term temperature dependencies of Antarctic soil bacterial community growth rates, using...... °38'W) and the Falkland Islands (51 °76'S 59 °03'W). At each location, experimental plots were subjected to warming by open top chambers (OTCs) and paired with control plots on vegetated and fell-field habitats. The bacterial communities were adapted to the mean annual temperature of their environment...

  9. Using Long-Term Experimental Warming To Distinguish Vegetation Responses To Warming From Other Environmental Drivers Related To Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, W. A.; Welker, J. M.; Mercado-Díaz, J. A.; Anderson, A.; Menken, M.

    2010-12-01

    Long term studies of vegetation change throughout the tundra biome show increases in the height, canopy extent and dominance of vascular vegetation versus bryophytes and lichens, with mixed responses of the dominant shrub and graminoid growth forms. Increases in vascular vegetation are recorded for sites with and without measurable climatic warming over recent decades, but with other potential drivers, i.e., increased summer precipitation. Experimental warming of tundra vegetation at Toolik Lake, Alaska shows a clear increase in shrub abundance relative to graminoids, with correlated higher NDVI values, increasing canopy heights, and thaw depths. Responses were similar between moist and dry tundra vegetation, with greater responses in moist vegetation. NDVI, with its ability to distinguish shrub from graminoid vegetation, may be a tool to distinguish fine scale differences in the response of tundra vegetation to climatic change, i.e., shifting balances of shrub and graminoid relative abundances that may be related to distinct climatic change drivers.

  10. The Impact of Global Warming on the Global Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Abdulnaser S. Alseni

    2017-01-01

    Global warming is the gradual rise in environmental temperature due to depletion of the Ozone layer. The increase in the environmental temperatures is due to amplified rate of industrial development. In this case, most industries have contributed to the dangers associated with warming. The paper seeks to discuss global warming from various perspectives. It commences with an introduction highlighting the general information about the topic. The second part focuses on both natural and artificia...

  11. Increasing climate extremes under global warming - What is the driving force?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2017-04-01

    More climate extreme events have occurred in recent years, including the continual development of extreme drought in California, the severe cold winters in the eastern U.S. since 2014, 2015 Washington drought, and excessive wildfire events over Alaska in 2015. These have been casually attributed to global warming. However, a need for further understanding of mechanisms responsible for climate extremes is growing. In this presentation, we'll use sets of climate model simulation that designed to identify the role of the oceanic feedback in increasing climate extremes under global warming. One is with a fully coupled climate model forced by 1% ramping CO2, and the other is with an atmosphere only model forced by the same CO2 forcing. By contrasting these two, an importance of the oceanic feedback in increasing climate extremes under global warming can be diagnosed.

  12. Testing paradigms of ecosystem change under climate warming in Antarctica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Melbourne-Thomas

    Full Text Available Antarctic marine ecosystems have undergone significant changes as a result of human activities in the past and are now responding in varied and often complicated ways to climate change impacts. Recent years have seen the emergence of large-scale mechanistic explanations-or "paradigms of change"-that attempt to synthesize our understanding of past and current changes. In many cases, these paradigms are based on observations that are spatially and temporally patchy. The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP, one of Earth's most rapidly changing regions, has been an area of particular research focus. A recently proposed mechanistic explanation for observed changes in the WAP region relates changes in penguin populations to variability in krill biomass and regional warming. While this scheme is attractive for its simplicity and chronology, it may not account for complex spatio-temporal processes that drive ecosystem dynamics in the region. It might also be difficult to apply to other Antarctic regions that are experiencing some, though not all, of the changes documented for the WAP. We use qualitative network models of differing levels of complexity to test paradigms of change for the WAP ecosystem. Importantly, our approach captures the emergent effects of feedback processes in complex ecological networks and provides a means to identify and incorporate uncertain linkages between network elements. Our findings highlight key areas of uncertainty in the drivers of documented trends, and suggest that a greater level of model complexity is needed in devising explanations for ecosystem change in the Southern Ocean. We suggest that our network approach to evaluating a recent and widely cited paradigm of change for the Antarctic region could be broadly applied in hypothesis testing for other regions and research fields.

  13. Physiological constraints to climate warming in fish follow principles of plastic floors and concrete ceilings

    OpenAIRE

    Sandblom, Erik; Clark, Timothy; Gräns, Albin; Ekström, Andreas; Brijs, Jeroen; Sundström, Fredrik; Odelström, Anne; Adill, Anders; Teija, Aho; Jutfelt, Fredrik

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the resilience of aquatic ectothermic animals to climate warming has been hindered by the absence of experimental systems experiencing warming across relevant timescales (for example, decades). Here, we examine European perch (Perca fluviatilis, L.) from the Biotest enclosure, a unique coastal ecosystem that maintains natural thermal fluctuations but has been warmed by 5-10 degrees C by a nuclear power plant for over three decades. We show that Biotest perch grow faster and disp...

  14. Global warming: Design of a flow-through shallow lake mesocosm climate experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2005-01-01

    design details, operating characteristics, and background information on a currently operating experimental flow-through mesocosm system that allows investigation of the interactions between simulated climate warming and eutrophication and their impacts on biological structure and ecosystem processes...

  15. Plant movements and climate warming: intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frenne, De P.; Coomes, D.; Schrijver, De A.; Staelens, J.; Alexander, J.M.; Bernhardt-Romermann, M.; Brunet, J.; Chabrerie, O.; Chiarucci, A.; Ouden, den J.

    2014-01-01

    Most range shift predictions focus on the dispersal phase of the colonization process. Because moving populations experience increasingly dissimilar nonclimatic environmental conditions as they track climate warming, it is also critical to test how individuals originating from contrasting thermal en

  16. Global warming: Design of a flow-through shallow lake mesocosm climate experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2005-01-01

    design details, operating characteristics, and background information on a currently operating experimental flow-through mesocosm system that allows investigation of the interactions between simulated climate warming and eutrophication and their impacts on biological structure and ecosystem processes...

  17. Astrochronology of extreme global warming events during the early Eocene greenhouse climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauretano, V.

    2016-01-01

    The early Eocene represents an ideal case study to analyse the impact of enhanced global warming on the ocean-atmosphere system and the relationship between carbon cycling and climate. During this time interval, the Earth’s surface experienced a long-term warming trend that culminated in a period of

  18. CLIMATE WARMING IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE AND ITS INFLUENCES ON AGRICULTURE AND COUNTER MEASURES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杜尧东; 宋丽莉; 毛慧琴; 汤海燕; 徐安高

    2004-01-01

    Climate changes in Guangdong are studied based on temperature data of 86 meteorological stations in Guangdong Province during 1961 - 2000, temperature data in Guangzhou during 1908 - 2002, and sea level data in the South China Sea during 1958 - 2001. Significant climate warming and sea level rise in Guangdong is demonstrated. Possible influences of climate warming on agriculture in Guangdong are discussed in terms of thermal resources, crop and breed layout, crop yield, diseases, insect pests and weeds as well as agrometeorological disasters, etc. In the final part, agricultural strategies of mitigating and adapting to the climate changes are given.

  19. Climate Warming and Seasonal Precipitation Change Interact to Limit Species Distribution Shifts across Western North America

    OpenAIRE

    Melanie A Harsch; Janneke HilleRisLambers

    2016-01-01

    Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations)-despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was sig...

  20. Are natural climate forcings able to counteract the projected anthropogenic global warming?

    OpenAIRE

    Bertrand, C.; van Ypersele, J.P.; Berger, A.

    2002-01-01

    A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assess the climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over th...

  1. Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Anmin; Xiao, Zhixiang

    2015-09-02

    The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998-2013 (0.25 °C decade(-1)), compared with that during 1980-1997 (0.21 °C decade(-1)). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud-radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud-radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau.

  2. Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Anmin; Xiao, Zhixiang

    2015-01-01

    The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998–2013 (0.25 °C decade−1), compared with that during 1980–1997 (0.21 °C decade−1). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud–radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud–radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau. PMID:26329678

  3. The Impact of Global Warming on the Global Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulnaser S. Alseni

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is the gradual rise in environmental temperature due to depletion of the Ozone layer. The increase in the environmental temperatures is due to amplified rate of industrial development. In this case, most industries have contributed to the dangers associated with warming. The paper seeks to discuss global warming from various perspectives. It commences with an introduction highlighting the general information about the topic. The second part focuses on both natural and artificial causes while the last part discusses the effects on both humans and atmosphere

  4. Invited review: Are adaptations present to support dairy cattle productivity in warm climates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, A

    2011-05-01

    Environmental heat stress, present during warm seasons and warm episodes, severely impairs dairy cattle performance, particularly in warmer climates. It is widely viewed that warm climate breeds (Zebu and Sanga cattle) are adapted to the climate in which they evolved. Such adaptations might be exploited for increasing cattle productivity in warm climates and decrease the effect of warm periods in cooler climates. The literature was reviewed for presence of such adaptations. Evidence is clear for resistance to ticks and tick-transmitted diseases in Zebu and Sanga breeds as well as for a possible development of resistance to ticks in additional breeds. Development of resistance to ticks demands time; hence, it needs to be balanced with potential use of insecticides or vaccination. The presumption of higher sweating rates in Zebu-derived breeds, based upon morphological differences in sweat glands between breeds, has not been substantiated. Relatively few studies have examined hair coat characteristics and their responses to seasonal heat, particularly in temperate climate breeds. Recently, a gene for slick hair coat has been observed that improved heat tolerance when introduced into temperate climate breeds. No solid evidence exists that hair coat in these lines is lighter than in well-fed warm climate-adapted Holsteins. Warm climate breeds and their F1 crosses share as dominant characteristics lower maintenance requirements and milk yields, and limited response to improved feeding and management. These characteristics are not adaptations to a feed-limited environment but are constitutive and useful in serving survival when feed is scarce and seasonal and high temperatures prevail. The negative relationship between milk yield and fertility present in temperate climates breeds also prevails in Zebu cattle. Fertility impairment by warm conditions might be counteracted in advanced farming systems by extra corporeal early embryo culture. In general, adaptations found in

  5. Allocation trade-off under climate warming in experimental amphibian populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xu; Jin, Changnan; Camargo, Arley; Li, Yiming

    2015-01-01

    Climate change could either directly or indirectly cause population declines via altered temperature, rainfall regimes, food availability or phenological responses. However few studies have focused on allocation trade-offs between growth and reproduction under marginal resources, such as food scarce that may be caused by climate warming. Such critical changes may have an unpredicted impact on amphibian life-history parameters and even population dynamics. Here, we report an allocation strategy of adult anuran individuals involving a reproductive stage under experimental warming. Using outdoor mesocosm experiments we simulated a warming scenario likely to occur at the end of this century. We examined the effects of temperature (ambient vs. pre-/post-hibernation warming) and food availability (normal vs. low) on reproduction and growth parameters of pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus). We found that temperature was the major factor influencing reproductive time of female pond frogs, which showed a significant advancing under post-hibernation warming treatment. While feeding rate was the major factor influencing reproductive status of females, clutch size, and variation of body size for females, showed significant positive correlations between feeding rate and reproductive status, clutch size, or variation of body size. Our results suggested that reproduction and body size of amphibians might be modulated by climate warming or food availability variation. We believe this study provides some new evidence on allocation strategies suggesting that amphibians could adjust their reproductive output to cope with climate warming.

  6. Allocation trade-off under climate warming in experimental amphibian populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xu; Jin, Changnan; Camargo, Arley

    2015-01-01

    Climate change could either directly or indirectly cause population declines via altered temperature, rainfall regimes, food availability or phenological responses. However few studies have focused on allocation trade-offs between growth and reproduction under marginal resources, such as food scarce that may be caused by climate warming. Such critical changes may have an unpredicted impact on amphibian life-history parameters and even population dynamics. Here, we report an allocation strategy of adult anuran individuals involving a reproductive stage under experimental warming. Using outdoor mesocosm experiments we simulated a warming scenario likely to occur at the end of this century. We examined the effects of temperature (ambient vs. pre-/post-hibernation warming) and food availability (normal vs. low) on reproduction and growth parameters of pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus). We found that temperature was the major factor influencing reproductive time of female pond frogs, which showed a significant advancing under post-hibernation warming treatment. While feeding rate was the major factor influencing reproductive status of females, clutch size, and variation of body size for females, showed significant positive correlations between feeding rate and reproductive status, clutch size, or variation of body size. Our results suggested that reproduction and body size of amphibians might be modulated by climate warming or food availability variation. We believe this study provides some new evidence on allocation strategies suggesting that amphibians could adjust their reproductive output to cope with climate warming. PMID:26500832

  7. Effects of in situ climate warming on monarch caterpillar (Danaus plexippus) development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capdevielle, Jillian N.; Parker, John D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate warming will fundamentally alter basic life history strategies of many ectothermic insects. In the lab, rising temperatures increase growth rates of lepidopteran larvae but also reduce final pupal mass and increase mortality. Using in situ field warming experiments on their natural host plants, we assessed the impact of climate warming on development of monarch (Danaus plexippus) larvae. Monarchs were reared on Asclepias tuberosa grown under ‘Ambient’ and ‘Warmed’ conditions. We quantified time to pupation, final pupal mass, and survivorship. Warming significantly decreased time to pupation, such that an increase of 1 °C corresponded to a 0.5 day decrease in pupation time. In contrast, survivorship and pupal mass were not affected by warming. Our results indicate that climate warming will speed the developmental rate of monarchs, influencing their ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, the effects of climate warming on larval development in other monarch populations and at different times of year should be investigated. PMID:26528403

  8. Biomass production in experimental grasslands of different species richness during three years of climate warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. J. De Boeck

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated, while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated. Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (−29% and belowground (−25%, as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Increased resource partitioning, likely mostly through spatial complementarity, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.

  9. CLIMATIC FEATURES OF SUMMER TEMPERATURE IN NORTHEAST CHINA UNDER WARMING BACKGROUND

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Ji; GONG Qiang; ZHAO Lian-wei

    2005-01-01

    By using, summer temperature data in 26 stations from 1951 to 2003, the variation characteristics of summer temperature in Northeast China (NET) were analyzed based on the background of climate warming. The results showed that the warming in summer was 0.15℃/10a in Northeast China, which was higher than that on the global, Northern Hemisphere or Northeast Asia scale in the recent 50 years. The responses of NET to global warming were shown in 3 aspects mainly. Firstly, it became warm and the average temperature increased in summer;secondly,the temperature variability increased, which displayed the increase of climatic instability;thirdly, the disaster of low temperature decreased and high temperature damage increased obviously, but the disaster of low temperature still existed in some areas under global warming background, which would be worthy of notice further.

  10. Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.

    2015-12-01

    Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.

  11. The Greenland ice sheet in a warming climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Angelen, J.H.

    2013-01-01

    In this thesis we assess multiple aspects of the Greenland climate, including the surface energy and mass balance of the ice sheet for the contemporary and near future climate. For these purposes we used output of the extensively and well-evaluated regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2. The rela

  12. Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shongwe, M.E.

    2010-01-01

    Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate extremes. The fitted statistical properties are often

  13. Medical Providers as Global Warming and Climate Change Health Educators: A Health Literacy Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villagran, Melinda; Weathers, Melinda; Keefe, Brian; Sparks, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to wildlife and the environment, but it also one of the most pervasive threats to human health. The goal of this study was to examine the relationships among dimensions of health literacy, patient education about global warming and climate change (GWCC), and health behaviors. Results reveal that patients who have higher…

  14. Enhancing Primary School Students' Knowledge about Global Warming and Environmental Attitude Using Climate Change Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Bin Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir

    2015-01-01

    Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that…

  15. Medical Providers as Global Warming and Climate Change Health Educators: A Health Literacy Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villagran, Melinda; Weathers, Melinda; Keefe, Brian; Sparks, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to wildlife and the environment, but it also one of the most pervasive threats to human health. The goal of this study was to examine the relationships among dimensions of health literacy, patient education about global warming and climate change (GWCC), and health behaviors. Results reveal that patients who have higher…

  16. Enhancing Primary School Students' Knowledge about Global Warming and Environmental Attitude Using Climate Change Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Bin Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir

    2015-01-01

    Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that…

  17. Areas of potential suitability and survival of Dendroctonus valens in China under extreme climate warming scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, S Y; Ge, X Z; Wang, T; Wen, J B; Zong, S X

    2015-08-01

    The areas in China with climates suitable for the potential distribution of the pest species red turpentine beetle (RTB) Dendroctonus valens LeConte (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were predicted by CLIMEX based on historical climate data and future climate data with warming estimated. The model used a historical climate data set (1971-2000) and a simulated climate data set (2010-2039) provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change (TYN SC 2.0). Based on the historical climate data, a wide area was available in China with a suitable climate for the beetle in which every province might contain suitable habitats for this pest, particularly all of the southern provinces. The northern limit of the distribution of the beetle was predicted to reach Yakeshi and Elunchun in Inner Mongolia, and the western boundary would reach to Keerkezi in Xinjiang Province. Based on a global-warming scenario, the area with a potential climate suited to RTB in the next 30 years (2010-2039) may extend further to the northeast. The northern limit of the distribution could reach most parts of south Heilongjiang Province, whereas the western limit would remain unchanged. Combined with the tendency for RTB to spread, the variation in suitable habitats within the scenario of extreme climate warming and the multiple geographical elements of China led us to assume that, within the next 30 years, RTB would spread towards the northeast, northwest, and central regions of China and could be a potentially serious problem for the forests of China.

  18. Global warming and contemporary climatic changes in Poland; Globalne ocieplenie a wspolczesne zmiany klimatyczne w Polsce

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1993-12-31

    The conference on global warming took place in Szczecin, Poland, on May 31 to Jun 1, 1993, organized by the national committee of IGBP Global Change, the Szczecin University and the Szczecin Academy of Agriculture. Twenty papers were published. Topics covered climatic changes in geological history, microclimates in Poland, contributions of natural changes to recent global warming, scenarios for climatic change in Poland, sensitivity of the water balance to climatic change, effects of global warming on surface water temperatures, evapotranspiration in the Balkans, droughts in the Eastern Mediterranean and in Poland, precipitation patterns in Poland, temperatures and salinity in the Baltic Sea, changes in water supply of the Baltic sea, the atmospheric circulation over the Baltic sea and in Poland, cold and heat waves in Poznan during 1911-1990 and climatic changes observed in Southern Poland.

  19. Doubled volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under simulated climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faubert, Patrick; Tiiva, Paivi; Rinnan, Åsmund

    2010-01-01

    • Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from arctic ecosystems are important in view of their role in global atmospheric chemistry and unknown feedbacks to global warming. These cold ecosystems are hotspots of climate warming, which will be more severe here than averaged over...... of a focus on BVOC emissions during climate change. The observed changes have implications for ecological interactions and feedback effects on climate change via impacts on aerosol formation and indirect greenhouse effects....... the globe. We assess the effects of climatic warming on non-methane BVOC emissions from a subarctic heath. • We performed ecosystem-based chamber measurements and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of the BVOCs collected on adsorbent over two growing seasons at a wet subarctic tundra...

  20. Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldey, S. H.

    2016-12-01

    On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

  1. SOME ADVANCES IN CLIMATE WARMING IMPACT RESEARCH IN CHINA SINCE 1990

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王馥棠

    2001-01-01

    Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will strengthen the natural greenhouse effect, which could lead to global climate warming and more other changes. China is a largely agricultural country with a large size of population and the relative shortages of farming lands and water resources, thus increasing the importance of climate warming for national economy development. Therefore. Chinese government and scientists have paid great attention to the impact-assessment of climate warming on national economy in China, especially during the past 10 years. This presentation will briefly describe some major issues of climate warming impact research on national vegetation, agriculture, forest, water resources, energy use and regional sea level for China, etc.As a result, all climate change scenarios derived by GCMs suggest a substantial change in thecharacteristic natural vegetation types. It is also shown that comparing with the distributionsimulated under thenormal time period 1951-1980 as the present climate, by 2050 large changesin cropping systems would occur almost everywhere in China. Climate warming would lead toincrease cropping diversification and multiplication. Unfortunately, the possible net balancebetween precipitation and evapotranspiration would be negativeand it would lead to reduce thegrain production in China significantly due to enhanced moisture stress in soil. The most evidentinfluence of climate warming on water resources would happen in Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe Basin andthe water supply-demand deficit would be substantially enhanced in this area. And also, a warmerclimate for China will alter the energy requirement for domestic heating and cooling, that is,reduce energy use for heating in northern China and increase energy consumption for cooling insouthern China.

  2. Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Björk, Robert G; Bjorkman, Anne D; Callaghan, Terry V; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Day, Thomas A; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Grétarsdóttir, Járngerður; Harte, John; Hermanutz, Luise; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jarrad, Frith; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Keuper, Frida; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lang, Simone I; Loewen, Val; May, Jeremy L; Mercado, Joel; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Pieper, Sara; Post, Eric; Rixen, Christian; Robinson, Clare H; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Orjan; Troxler, Tiffany; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Webber, Patrick J; Welker, Jeffery M; Wookey, Philip A

    2012-02-01

    Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date.

  3. Climate-change impact potentials as an alternative to global warming potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Miko U. F.

    2014-03-01

    For policy applications, such as for the Kyoto Protocol, the climate-change contributions of different greenhouse gases are usually quantified through their global warming potentials. They are calculated based on the cumulative radiative forcing resulting from a pulse emission of a gas over a specified time period. However, these calculations are not explicitly linked to an assessment of ultimate climate-change impacts. A new metric, the climate-change impact potential (CCIP), is presented here that is based on explicitly defining the climate-change perturbations that lead to three different kinds of climate-change impacts. These kinds of impacts are: (1) those related directly to temperature increases; (2) those related to the rate of warming; and (3) those related to cumulative warming. From those definitions, a quantitative assessment of the importance of pulse emissions of each gas is developed, with each kind of impact assigned equal weight for an overall impact assessment. Total impacts are calculated under the RCP6 concentration pathway as a base case. The relevant climate-change impact potentials are then calculated as the marginal increase of those impacts over 100 years through the emission of an additional unit of each gas in 2010. These calculations are demonstrated for CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. Compared with global warming potentials, climate-change impact potentials would increase the importance of pulse emissions of long-lived nitrous oxide and reduce the importance of short-lived methane.

  4. Abrupt climate warming in East Antarctica during the early Holocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cremer, H.; Heiri, O.; Wagner, B.; Wagner-Cremer, F.

    2007-01-01

    We report a centennial-scale warming event between 8600 and 8400 cal BP from Amery Oasis, East Antarctica, that is documented by the geochemical record in a lacustrine sediment sequence. The organic carbon content, the C/S ratio, and the sedimentation rate in this core have distinctly elevated value

  5. Teaching about Climate Change: Cool Schools Tackle Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Tim, Ed.; Littlejohn, Gail, Ed.

    Within the last couple of decades, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased significantly due to human activities. Today climate change is an important issue for humankind. This book provides a starting point for educators to teach about climate change, although there are obstacles caused by the industrialized…

  6. Teaching about Climate Change: Cool Schools Tackle Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Tim, Ed.; Littlejohn, Gail, Ed.

    Within the last couple of decades, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased significantly due to human activities. Today climate change is an important issue for humankind. This book provides a starting point for educators to teach about climate change, although there are obstacles caused by the industrialized…

  7. Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pointek, F.; Müller, C.; Pugh, T.A.M.; Clark, D.B.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Colón-González, F.J.; Flörke, M.; Folberth, C.; Neumann, K.

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impact

  8. Constant diurnal temperature regime alters the impact of simulated climate warming on a tropical pseudoscorpion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeh, Jeanne A.; Bonilla, Melvin M.; Su, Eleanor J.; Padua, Michael V.; Anderson, Rachel V.; Zeh, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Recent theory suggests that global warming may be catastrophic for tropical ectotherms. Although most studies addressing temperature effects in ectotherms utilize constant temperatures, Jensen's inequality and thermal stress considerations predict that this approach will underestimate warming effects on species experiencing daily temperature fluctuations in nature. Here, we tested this prediction in a neotropical pseudoscorpion. Nymphs were reared in control and high-temperature treatments under a constant daily temperature regime, and results compared to a companion fluctuating-temperature study. At constant temperature, pseudoscorpions outperformed their fluctuating-temperature counterparts. Individuals were larger, developed faster, and males produced more sperm, and females more embryos. The greatest impact of temperature regime involved short-term, adult exposure, with constant temperature mitigating high-temperature effects on reproductive traits. Our findings demonstrate the importance of realistic temperature regimes in climate warming studies, and suggest that exploitation of microhabitats that dampen temperature oscillations may be critical in avoiding extinction as tropical climates warm. PMID:24424082

  9. Physiological constraints to climate warming in fish follow principles of plastic floors and concrete ceilings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandblom, Erik; Clark, Timothy D; Gräns, Albin; Ekström, Andreas; Brijs, Jeroen; Sundström, L Fredrik; Odelström, Anne; Adill, Anders; Aho, Teija; Jutfelt, Fredrik

    2016-05-17

    Understanding the resilience of aquatic ectothermic animals to climate warming has been hindered by the absence of experimental systems experiencing warming across relevant timescales (for example, decades). Here, we examine European perch (Perca fluviatilis, L.) from the Biotest enclosure, a unique coastal ecosystem that maintains natural thermal fluctuations but has been warmed by 5-10 °C by a nuclear power plant for over three decades. We show that Biotest perch grow faster and display thermally compensated resting cardiorespiratory functions compared with reference perch living at natural temperatures in adjacent waters. However, maximum cardiorespiratory capacities and heat tolerance limits exhibit limited or no thermal compensation when compared with acutely heated reference perch. We propose that while basal energy requirements and resting cardiorespiratory functions (floors) are thermally plastic, maximum capacities and upper critical heat limits (ceilings) are much less flexible and thus will limit the adaptive capacity of fishes in a warming climate.

  10. Physiological constraints to climate warming in fish follow principles of plastic floors and concrete ceilings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandblom, Erik; Clark, Timothy D.; Gräns, Albin; Ekström, Andreas; Brijs, Jeroen; Sundström, L. Fredrik; Odelström, Anne; Adill, Anders; Aho, Teija; Jutfelt, Fredrik

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the resilience of aquatic ectothermic animals to climate warming has been hindered by the absence of experimental systems experiencing warming across relevant timescales (for example, decades). Here, we examine European perch (Perca fluviatilis, L.) from the Biotest enclosure, a unique coastal ecosystem that maintains natural thermal fluctuations but has been warmed by 5–10 °C by a nuclear power plant for over three decades. We show that Biotest perch grow faster and display thermally compensated resting cardiorespiratory functions compared with reference perch living at natural temperatures in adjacent waters. However, maximum cardiorespiratory capacities and heat tolerance limits exhibit limited or no thermal compensation when compared with acutely heated reference perch. We propose that while basal energy requirements and resting cardiorespiratory functions (floors) are thermally plastic, maximum capacities and upper critical heat limits (ceilings) are much less flexible and thus will limit the adaptive capacity of fishes in a warming climate. PMID:27186890

  11. Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Melanie A; Hulme, Philip E; McGlone, Matt S; Duncan, Richard P

    2009-10-01

    Treelines are temperature sensitive transition zones that are expected to respond to climate warming by advancing beyond their current position. Response to climate warming over the last century, however, has been mixed, with some treelines showing evidence of recruitment at higher altitudes and/or latitudes (advance) whereas others reveal no marked change in the upper limit of tree establishment. To explore this variation, we analysed a global dataset of 166 sites for which treeline dynamics had been recorded since 1900 AD. Advance was recorded at 52% of sites with only 1% reporting treeline recession. Treelines that experienced strong winter warming were more likely to have advanced, and treelines with a diffuse form were more likely to have advanced than those with an abrupt or krummholz form. Diffuse treelines may be more responsive to warming because they are more strongly growth limited, whereas other treeline forms may be subject to additional constraints.

  12. New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Myles R.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.; Reisinger, Andy; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Forster, Piers M.

    2016-08-01

    Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of `cumulative climate pollutants' such as carbon dioxide versus `short-lived climate pollutants' (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20-40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century, which may be necessary to limit warming to ``well below 2 °C'' (ref. ). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

  13. Metagenomics-Enabled Understanding of Soil Microbial Feedbacks to Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, J.; Wu, L.; Zhili, H.; Kostas, K.; Luo, Y.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Cole, J. R.; Tiedje, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the response of biological communities to climate warming is a central issue in ecology and global change biology, but it is poorly understood microbial communities. To advance system-level predictive understanding of the feedbacks of belowground microbial communities to multiple climate change factors and their impacts on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling processes, we have used integrated metagenomic technologies (e.g., target gene and shotgun metagenome sequencing, GeoChip, and isotope) to analyze soil microbial communities from experimental warming sites in Alaska (AK) and Oklahoma (OK), and long-term laboratory incubation. Rapid feedbacks of microbial communities to warming were observed in the AK site. Consistent with the changes in soil temperature, moisture and ecosystem respiration, microbial functional community structure was shifted after only 1.5-year warming, indicating rapid responses and high sensitivity of this permafrost ecosystem to climate warming. Also, warming stimulated not only functional genes involved in aerobic respiration of both labile and recalcitrant C, contributing to an observed 24% increase in 2010 growing season and 56% increase of decomposition of a standard substrate, but also functional genes for anaerobic processes (e.g., denitrification, sulfate reduction, methanogenesis). Further comparisons by shotgun sequencing showed significant differences of microbial community structure between AK and OK sites. The OK site was enriched in genes annotated for cellulose degradation, CO2 production, denitrification, sporulation, heat shock response, and cellular surface structures (e.g., trans-membrane transporters for glucosides), while the AK warmed plots were enriched in metabolic pathways related to labile C decomposition. Together, our results demonstrate the vulnerability of permafrost ecosystem C to climate warming and the importance of microbial feedbacks in mediating such vulnerability.

  14. Impact of Climate Warming on Passive Night Cooling Potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Artmann, Nikolai; Gyalistras, D.; Manz, H.;

    2008-01-01

    Night-time ventilation is often seen as a promising passive cooling concept. However, as it requires a sufficiently high temperature difference between ambient air and the building structure, this technique is highly sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. In order to quantify the impact...... temperature (Tmin). CCP was computed for present conditions (1961-90) using measured Tmin data from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) database. Possible time-dependent changes in CCP were assessed for 1990-2100, with particular emphasis on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 'A2' and 'B2...

  15. Thermal variability alters the impact of climate warming on consumer-resource systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fey, Samuel B; Vasseur, David A

    2016-07-01

    Thermal variation through space and time are prominent features of ecosystems that influence processes at multiple levels of biological organization. Yet, it remains unclear how populations embedded within biological communities will respond to climate warming in thermally variable environments, particularly as climate change alters existing patterns of thermal spatial and temporal variability. As environmental temperatures increase above historical ranges, organisms may increasingly rely on extreme habitats to effectively thermoregulate. Such locations desirable in their thermal attributes (e.g., thermal refugia) are often suboptimal for resource acquisition (e.g., underground tunnels). Thus, via the expected increase in both mean temperatures and diel thermal variation, climate warming may heighten the trade-off for consumers between behaviors maximizing thermal performance and those maximizing resource acquisition. Here, we integrate behavioral, physiological, and trophic ecology to provide a general framework for understanding how temporal thermal variation, mediated by access to a thermal refugium, alters the response of consumer-resource systems to warming. We use this framework to predict how temporal variation and access to thermal refugia affect the persistence of consumers and resources during climate warming, how the quality of thermal refugia impact consumer-resource systems, and how consumer-resource systems with fast vs. slow ecological dynamics respond to warming. Our results show that the spatial thermal variability provided by refugia can elevate consumer biomass at warmer temperatures despite reducing the fraction of time consumers spend foraging, that temporal variability detrimentally impacts consumers at high environmental temperatures, and that consumer-resource systems with fast ecological dynamics are most vulnerable to climate warming. Thus, incorporating both estimates of thermal variability and species interactions may be necessary to

  16. Hydrologic response and watershed sensitivity to climate warming in California's Sierra Nevada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Null, Sarah E; Viers, Joshua H; Mount, Jeffrey F

    2010-04-01

    This study focuses on the differential hydrologic response of individual watersheds to climate warming within the Sierra Nevada mountain region of California. We describe climate warming models for 15 west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds in California under unimpaired conditions using WEAP21, a weekly one-dimensional rainfall-runoff model. Incremental climate warming alternatives increase air temperature uniformly by 2 degrees, 4 degrees, and 6 degrees C, but leave other climatic variables unchanged from observed values. Results are analyzed for changes in mean annual flow, peak runoff timing, and duration of low flow conditions to highlight which watersheds are most resilient to climate warming within a region, and how individual watersheds may be affected by changes to runoff quantity and timing. Results are compared with current water resources development and ecosystem services in each watershed to gain insight into how regional climate warming may affect water supply, hydropower generation, and montane ecosystems. Overall, watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada are most vulnerable to decreased mean annual flow, southern-central watersheds are most susceptible to runoff timing changes, and the central portion of the range is most affected by longer periods with low flow conditions. Modeling results suggest the American and Mokelumne Rivers are most vulnerable to all three metrics, and the Kern River is the most resilient, in part from the high elevations of the watershed. Our research seeks to bridge information gaps between climate change modeling and regional management planning, helping to incorporate climate change into the development of regional adaptation strategies for Sierra Nevada watersheds.

  17. Hydrologic response and watershed sensitivity to climate warming in California's Sierra Nevada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah E Null

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the differential hydrologic response of individual watersheds to climate warming within the Sierra Nevada mountain region of California. We describe climate warming models for 15 west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds in California under unimpaired conditions using WEAP21, a weekly one-dimensional rainfall-runoff model. Incremental climate warming alternatives increase air temperature uniformly by 2 degrees, 4 degrees, and 6 degrees C, but leave other climatic variables unchanged from observed values. Results are analyzed for changes in mean annual flow, peak runoff timing, and duration of low flow conditions to highlight which watersheds are most resilient to climate warming within a region, and how individual watersheds may be affected by changes to runoff quantity and timing. Results are compared with current water resources development and ecosystem services in each watershed to gain insight into how regional climate warming may affect water supply, hydropower generation, and montane ecosystems. Overall, watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada are most vulnerable to decreased mean annual flow, southern-central watersheds are most susceptible to runoff timing changes, and the central portion of the range is most affected by longer periods with low flow conditions. Modeling results suggest the American and Mokelumne Rivers are most vulnerable to all three metrics, and the Kern River is the most resilient, in part from the high elevations of the watershed. Our research seeks to bridge information gaps between climate change modeling and regional management planning, helping to incorporate climate change into the development of regional adaptation strategies for Sierra Nevada watersheds.

  18. Extension of the PMV model to non-air-conditioned building in warm climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

    2002-01-01

    The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

  19. Prediction of thermal sensation in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

    2002-01-01

    The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

  20. A remarkable climate warming hiatus over Northeast China since 1998

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiubao; Ren, Guoyu; Ren, Yuyu; Fang, Yihe; Liu, Yulian; Xue, Xiaoying; Zhang, Panfeng

    2017-07-01

    Characteristics and causes of global warming hiatus (GWH) phenomenon have received much attention in recent years. Monthly mean data of land surface air maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and mean temperature (Tmean) of 118 national stations since 1951 in Northeast China are used in this paper to analyze the changes of land surface air temperature in recent 64 years with an emphasis on the GWH period. The results show that (1) from 1951 to 2014, the warming trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are 0.20, 0.42, and 0.34 °C/decade respectively for the whole area, with the warming rate of Tmin about two times of Tmax, and the upward trend of Tmean obviously higher than mainland China and global averages; (2) in the period 1998-2014, the annual mean temperature consistently exhibits a cooling phenomenon in Northeast China, and the trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are -0.36, -0.14, and -0.28 °C/decade respectively; (3) in the GWH period, seasonal mean cooling mainly occurs in northern winter (DJF) and spring (MAM), but northern summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) still experience a warming, implying that the annual mean temperature decrease is controlled by the remarkable cooling of winter and spring; (4) compared to the global and mainland China averages, the hiatus phenomenon is more evident in Northeast China, and the cooling trends are more obvious in the cold season; (5) the Northeast China cooling trend occurs under the circulation background of the negative phase Arctic Oscillation (AO), and it is also closely related to strengthening of the Siberia High (SH) and the East Asian Trough (EAT), and the stronger East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the GWH period.

  1. Future of West African Monsoon in A Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raj, Jerry; Kunhu Bangalath, Hamza; Stenchikov, Georgiy

    2016-04-01

    West Africa is the home of more than 300 million people whose agriculture based economy highly relies on West African Monsoon (WAM), which produces a mean annual rainfall of 150 - 2,500 mm and variability and change of which have devastating impact on the local population. The observed widespread drought in West Africa during the 1970s and 1980s was the most significant drought at regional scale during the twentieth century. In this study, a high resolution AGCM, High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), is used to study the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on WAM. HiRAM is developed at GFDL based on AM2 and employs a cubed-sphere finite volume dynamical core and uses shallow convective scheme (for moist convection and stratiform cloudiness) instead of deep convective parameterization. Future projections are done using two representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 2007 to 2050 at C360 (~25 km) resolution. Both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios predict warming over West Africa during boreal summer, especially over Western Sahara. Also, both scenarios predict southward shift in WAM rainfall pattern and drying over Southern Sahara, while RCP 8.5 predicts enhanced rainfall over Gulf of Guinea. The intensification of rainfall over tropical latitudes is caused by increased low level winds due to warm SST over Gulf of Guinea.

  2. Climatic warming increases winter wheat yield but reduces grain nitrogen concentration in east China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunlu Tian

    Full Text Available Climatic warming is often predicted to reduce wheat yield and grain quality in China. However, direct evidence is still lacking. We conducted a three-year experiment with a Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI facility to examine the responses of winter wheat growth and plant N accumulation to a moderate temperature increase of 1.5°C predicted to prevail by 2050 in East China. Three warming treatments (AW: all-day warming; DW: daytime warming; NW: nighttime warming were applied for an entire growth period. Consistent warming effects on wheat plant were recorded across the experimental years. An increase of ca. 1.5°C in daily, daytime and nighttime mean temperatures shortened the length of pre-anthesis period averagely by 12.7, 8.3 and 10.7 d (P<0.05, respectively, but had no significant impact on the length of the post-anthesis period. Warming did not significantly alter the aboveground biomass production, but the grain yield was 16.3, 18.1 and 19.6% (P<0.05 higher in the AW, DW and NW plots than the non-warmed plot, respectively. Warming also significantly increased plant N uptake and total biomass N accumulation. However, warming significantly reduced grain N concentrations while increased N concentrations in the leaves and stems. Together, our results demonstrate differential impacts of warming on the depositions of grain starch and protein, highlighting the needs to further understand the mechanisms that underlie warming impacts on plant C and N metabolism in wheat.

  3. Europe's forest management did not mitigate climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naudts, Kim; Chen, Yiying; McGrath, Matthew J; Ryder, James; Valade, Aude; Otto, Juliane; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

    2016-02-01

    Afforestation and forest management are considered to be key instruments in mitigating climate change. Here we show that since 1750, in spite of considerable afforestation, wood extraction has led to Europe's forests accumulating a carbon debt of 3.1 petagrams of carbon. We found that afforestation is responsible for an increase of 0.12 watts per square meter in the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere, whereas an increase of 0.12 kelvin in summertime atmospheric boundary layer temperature was mainly caused by species conversion. Thus, two and a half centuries of forest management in Europe have not cooled the climate. The political imperative to mitigate climate change through afforestation and forest management therefore risks failure, unless it is recognized that not all forestry contributes to climate change mitigation.

  4. Global warming: China’s contribution to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use in China have grown dramatically in the past few decades, yet it emerges that the country's relative contribution to global climate change has remained surprisingly constant. See Letter p.357

  5. Does physiological acclimation to climate warming stabilize the ratio of canopy respiration to photosynthesis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, John E; Tjoelker, Mark G; Aspinwall, Michael J; Reich, Peter B; Barton, Craig V M; Medlyn, Belinda E; Duursma, Remko A

    2016-08-01

    Given the contrasting short-term temperature dependences of gross primary production (GPP) and autotrophic respiration, the fraction of GPP respired by trees is predicted to increase with warming, providing a positive feedback to climate change. However, physiological acclimation may dampen or eliminate this response. We measured the fluxes of aboveground respiration (Ra ), GPP and their ratio (Ra /GPP) in large, field-grown Eucalyptus tereticornis trees exposed to ambient or warmed air temperatures (+3°C). We report continuous measurements of whole-canopy CO2 exchange, direct temperature response curves of leaf and canopy respiration, leaf and branch wood respiration, and diurnal photosynthetic measurements. Warming reduced photosynthesis, whereas physiological acclimation prevented a coincident increase in Ra . Ambient and warmed trees had a common nonlinear relationship between the fraction of GPP that was respired above ground (Ra /GPP) and the mean daily temperature. Thus, warming significantly increased Ra /GPP by moving plants to higher positions on the shared Ra /GPP vs daily temperature relationship, but this effect was modest and only notable during hot conditions. Despite the physiological acclimation of autotrophic respiration to warming, increases in temperature and the frequency of heat waves may modestly increase tree Ra /GPP, contributing to a positive feedback between climate warming and atmospheric CO2 accumulation.

  6. The capacity to cope with climate warming declines from temperate to tropical latitudes in two widely distributed Eucalyptus species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, John E; Aspinwall, Michael J; Pfautsch, Sebastian; Rymer, Paul D; Reich, Peter B; Smith, Renee A; Crous, Kristine Y; Tissue, David T; Ghannoum, Oula; Tjoelker, Mark G

    2015-01-01

    As rapid climate warming creates a mismatch between forest trees and their home environment, the ability of trees to cope with warming depends on their capacity to physiologically adjust to higher temperatures. In widespread species, individual trees in cooler home climates are hypothesized to more successfully acclimate to warming than their counterparts in warmer climates that may approach thermal limits. We tested this prediction with a climate-shift experiment in widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis using provenances originating along a ~2500 km latitudinal transect (15.5-38.0°S) in eastern Australia. We grew 21 provenances in conditions approximating summer temperatures at seed origin and warmed temperatures (+3.5 °C) using a series of climate-controlled glasshouse bays. The effects of +3.5 °C warming strongly depended on home climate. Cool-origin provenances responded to warming through an increase in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to enhanced growth of 20-60%. Warm-origin provenances, however, responded to warming through a reduction in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to reduced growth of approximately 10%. These results suggest that there is predictable intraspecific variation in the capacity of trees to respond to warming; cool-origin taxa are likely to benefit from warming, while warm-origin taxa may be negatively affected.

  7. Climate change damage functions in LCA – (1) from global warming potential to natural environment damages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Callesen, Ingeborg; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    Energy use often is the most significant contributor to the impact category ‘global warming’ in life cycle impact assessment. However, the potential global warming effects on the climate at regional level and consequential effects on the natural environment are not thoroughly described within LCA...... methodology. The current scientific understanding of the extent of climate change impacts is limited due to the immense complexity of the multi-factorial environmental changes and unknown adaptive capacities at process, species and ecosystem level. In the presentation we argue that the global warming impacts...

  8. Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

    2014-01-01

    Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature – collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate – particularly precipitation and water availability – is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate

  9. Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

    2014-09-01

    Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature - collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate - particularly precipitation and water availability - is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate

  10. Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Tom H; Gillings, Simon; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Brereton, Tom; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Duffield, Simon J; Morecroft, Michael D; Roy, David B

    2017-06-01

    Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Non-linear responses of glaciated prairie wetlands to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, W. Carter; Werner, Brett; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

    2016-01-01

    The response of ecosystems to climate warming is likely to include threshold events when small changes in key environmental drivers produce large changes in an ecosystem. Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are especially sensitive to climate variability, yet the possibility that functional changes may occur more rapidly with warming than expected has not been examined or modeled. The productivity and biodiversity of these wetlands are strongly controlled by the speed and completeness of a vegetation cover cycle driven by the wet and dry extremes of climate. Two thresholds involving duration and depth of standing water must be exceeded every few decades or so to complete the cycle and to produce highly functional wetlands. Model experiments at 19 weather stations employing incremental warming scenarios determined that wetland function across most of the PPR would be diminished beyond a climate warming of about 1.5–2.0 °C, a critical temperature threshold range identified in other climate change studies.

  12. Experimental warming decreases arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization in prairie plants along a Mediterranean climate gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Hannah; Johnson, Bart R; Bohannan, Brendan; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Mueller, Rebecca; Bridgham, Scott D

    2016-01-01

    Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) provide numerous services to their plant symbionts. Understanding climate change effects on AMF, and the resulting plant responses, is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses at regional and global scales. We investigated how the effects of climate change on AMF-plant symbioses are mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics. We used a combination of a greenhouse experiment and a manipulative climate change experiment embedded within a Mediterranean climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA to examine this question. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to determine the direct and indirect effects of experimental warming on AMF colonization. Warming directly decreased AMF colonization across plant species and across the climate gradient of the study region. Other positive and negative indirect effects of warming, mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics, canceled each other out. A warming-induced decrease in AMF colonization would likely have substantial consequences for plant communities and ecosystem function. Moreover, predicted increases in more intense droughts and heavier rains for this region could shift the balance among indirect causal pathways, and either exacerbate or mitigate the negative, direct effect of increased temperature on AMF colonization.

  13. Experimental warming decreases arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization in prairie plants along a Mediterranean climate gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Bart R.; Bohannan, Brendan; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Mueller, Rebecca; Bridgham, Scott D.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) provide numerous services to their plant symbionts. Understanding climate change effects on AMF, and the resulting plant responses, is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses at regional and global scales. We investigated how the effects of climate change on AMF-plant symbioses are mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics. Methods: We used a combination of a greenhouse experiment and a manipulative climate change experiment embedded within a Mediterranean climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA to examine this question. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to determine the direct and indirect effects of experimental warming on AMF colonization. Results: Warming directly decreased AMF colonization across plant species and across the climate gradient of the study region. Other positive and negative indirect effects of warming, mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics, canceled each other out. Discussion: A warming-induced decrease in AMF colonization would likely have substantial consequences for plant communities and ecosystem function. Moreover, predicted increases in more intense droughts and heavier rains for this region could shift the balance among indirect causal pathways, and either exacerbate or mitigate the negative, direct effect of increased temperature on AMF colonization. PMID:27280074

  14. Experimental warming decreases arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization in prairie plants along a Mediterranean climate gradient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Wilson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF provide numerous services to their plant symbionts. Understanding climate change effects on AMF, and the resulting plant responses, is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses at regional and global scales. We investigated how the effects of climate change on AMF-plant symbioses are mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics. Methods: We used a combination of a greenhouse experiment and a manipulative climate change experiment embedded within a Mediterranean climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA to examine this question. Structural equation modeling (SEM was used to determine the direct and indirect effects of experimental warming on AMF colonization. Results: Warming directly decreased AMF colonization across plant species and across the climate gradient of the study region. Other positive and negative indirect effects of warming, mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics, canceled each other out. Discussion: A warming-induced decrease in AMF colonization would likely have substantial consequences for plant communities and ecosystem function. Moreover, predicted increases in more intense droughts and heavier rains for this region could shift the balance among indirect causal pathways, and either exacerbate or mitigate the negative, direct effect of increased temperature on AMF colonization.

  15. Biomass production in experimental grasslands of different species richness during three years of climate warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. J. De Boeck

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated, while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated. Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (–29% and belowground (–25%, as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Complementarity effects, likely mostly through both increased aboveground spatial complementarity and facilitative effects of legumes, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.

  16. Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

    2015-01-01

    As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

  17. Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuezhen Ge

    Full Text Available As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier (Coleoptera: Curculionidae has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010 and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040 provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0. Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

  18. Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

    2015-01-01

    As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981–2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011–2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas. PMID:26496438

  19. Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities Related to Spatial Scales, Extreme Events, and the Warming 'Hiatus'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.

    2013-12-01

    Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision

  20. Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Araújo, Miguel B.; Thuiller, W.; Pearson, R. G.

    2006-01-01

    Aim We explore the relationship between current European distributions of amphibian and reptile species and observed climate, and project species potential distributions into the future. Potential impacts of climate warming are assessed by quantifying the magnitude and direction of modelled...... distributional shifts for every species. In particular we ask, first, what proportion of amphibian and reptile species are projected to lose and gain suitable climate space in the future? Secondly, do species projections vary according to taxonomic, spatial or environmental properties? And thirdly, what climate...... of forecasts is then used to group linearly covarying projections into clusters with reduced inter-model variability. Results We show that a great proportion of amphibian and reptile species are projected to expand distributions if dispersal is unlimited. This is because warming in the cooler northern ranges...

  1. Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amano, Tatsuya; Freckleton, Robert P.; Queenborough, Simon A.; Doxford, Simon W.; Smithers, Richard J.; Sparks, Tim H.; Sutherland, William J.

    2014-01-01

    To generate realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species’s climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology. PMID:24478304

  2. Global and regional surface cooling in a warming climate: a multi-model analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Drange, Helge

    2016-06-01

    Instrumental temperature records show that the global climate may experience decadal-scale periods without warming despite a long-term warming trend. We analysed 17 global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), identifying the likelihood and duration of periods without warming in the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, together with the preindustrial control and historical simulations. We find that non-warming periods may last 10, 15 and 30 years for RCP8.5, RCP6.0 and RCP4.5, respectively. In the models, anomalous ocean heat uptake and storage are the main factors explaining the decadal-scale surface temperature hiatus periods. The low-latitude East Pacific Ocean is a key region for these variations, acting in tandem with basin-scale anomalies in the sea level pressure. During anomalously cold decades, roughly 35-50 % of the heat anomalies in the upper 700 m of the ocean are located in the Pacific Ocean, and 25 % in the Atlantic Ocean. Decadal-scale ocean heat anomalies, integrated over the upper 700 m, have a magnitude of about 7.5 × 1021 J. This is comparable to the ocean heat uptake needed to maintain a 10 year period without increasing surface temperature under global warming. On sub-decadal time scales the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Oceans all have the ability to store large amounts of heat, contributing to variations in global surface temperature. The likelihood of decadal-scale non-warming periods decrease with global warming, firstly at the low latitude region stretching eastward from the tropical Atlantic towards the western Pacific. The North Atlantic and Southern Oceans have largest likelihood of non-warming decades in a warming world.

  3. Climate warming, plant invasions and plant-enemy interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engelkes, T.

    2010-01-01

    The climate is changing and temperatures are predicted to further increase in the future. Species respond to these changes by either adapting to the local warmer conditions and/or range shifting to higher latitudes. Some of these successful range shifting plants can become invasive in their new rang

  4. Travelling through a warming world: climate change and migratory species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinson, A.; Crick, H.Q.P.; Learmonth, J.A.; Maclean, I.M.D.; Thomas, C.D.; Bairlein, F.; Forchhammer, M.C.; Francis, C.M.; Gill, J.A.; Godley, B.J.; Harwood, J.; Hays, G.C.; Huntley, B.; Hutson, A.M.; Pierce, G.J.; Rehfisch, M.M.; Sims, D.W.; Vieira dos Santos, M.C.; Sparks, T.H.; Stroud, D.; Visser, M.E.

    2009-01-01

    Long-distance migrations are among the wonders of the natural world, but this multi-taxon review shows that the characteristics of species that undertake such movements appear to make them particularly vulnerable to detrimental impacts of climate change. Migrants are key components of biological

  5. Climate warming, plant invasions and plant-enemy interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engelkes, T.

    2010-01-01

    The climate is changing and temperatures are predicted to further increase in the future. Species respond to these changes by either adapting to the local warmer conditions and/or range shifting to higher latitudes. Some of these successful range shifting plants can become invasive in their new

  6. Travelling through a warming world: climate change and migratory species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinson, A.; Crick, H.Q.P.; Learmonth, J.A.; Maclean, I.M.D.; Thomas, C.D.; Bairlein, F.; Forchhammer, M.C.; Francis, C.M.; Gill, J.A.; Godley, B.J.; Harwood, J.; Hays, G.C.; Huntley, B.; Hutson, A.M.; Pierce, G.J.; Rehfisch, M.M.; Sims, D.W.; Vieira dos Santos, M.C.; Sparks, T.H.; Stroud, D.; Visser, M.E.

    2009-01-01

    Long-distance migrations are among the wonders of the natural world, but this multi-taxon review shows that the characteristics of species that undertake such movements appear to make them particularly vulnerable to detrimental impacts of climate change. Migrants are key components of biological sys

  7. Common metrics. Comparing the warming effect of climate forcers in climate policy; Common metrics. Laempenemiseen vaikuttavien paeaestoejen yhteismitallistaminen ilmastopolitiikassa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindroos, T. J.; Ekholm, T.; Savolainen, I.

    2012-11-15

    Climate policy needs a relatively simple method to compare the warming effect of different greenhouse gases (GHGs). Otherwise it would be necessary to negotiate a different reduction target for each gas. At the moment, Global Warming Potential (GWP) concept is used to compare different GHGs. Numerical values of GWP factors have been updated alongside with scientific understanding and majority seems content to the GWP. From 2005 onwards there have been many proposals of optional metrics. The most well known is Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) concept which measures the change of temperature as does global climate policies. The decision between metrics is a multicriteria decision which should include at least the coherence with climate policy and cost efficiency. The GWP concept may be a little more difficult to understand than the GTP but it is more cost efficient. Alongside with new metrics, scientists and politicians have started to discuss of new emission which have an effect on warming. These Short Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) have either warming or cooling effect. Their effect can be presented with GWP and GTP but the uncertainties in the emission factors are large. In total, SLCFs reduce overall emissions of EU approximately 1% in year 2000. NO{sub x}, SO{sub x} (cooling) and black carbon (warming) emissions were the biggest factors. EU is planning to reduce the SLCF emissions to achieve health and environmental benefits, but at the same time this reduces the effect of EU's climate policies by approximately 10%. Uncertainties in the estimates are large. (orig.)

  8. Responses of Plants’ Phenology to Climate Warming in the Desert Area in Northwestern China

    OpenAIRE

    Zhaofeng Chang; Shujuan Zhu; Fugui Han; Shengnian Zhong; Qiangqiang Wang

    2013-01-01

    With climate warming, plants’ spring phenology has advanced while autumn phenology has delayed. How does the phenology of desert plants respond to climatic variation? To reveal it, this study analyzed the phenological data of 22 desert species growing in the Minqin Desert Plants Botanical Garden located in the typical desert area in northwest China. The data was observed during the year 1974-2009. Results revealed that comparing with the literatures available, the temperature in the study are...

  9. Large impacts of climatic warming on growth of boreal forests since 1960.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauppi, Pekka E; Posch, Maximilian; Pirinen, Pentti

    2014-01-01

    Boreal forests are sensitive to climatic warming, because low temperatures hold back ecosystem processes, such as the mobilization of nitrogen in soils. A greening of the boreal landscape has been observed using remote sensing, and the seasonal amplitude of CO2 in the northern hemisphere has increased, indicating warming effects on ecosystem productivity. However, field observations on responses of ecosystem productivity have been lacking on a large sub-biome scale. Here we report a significant increase in the annual growth of boreal forests in Finland in response to climatic warming, especially since 1990. This finding is obtained by linking meteorological records and forest inventory data on an area between 60° and 70° northern latitude. An additional increase in growth has occurred in response to changes in other drivers, such as forest management, nitrogen deposition and/or CO2 concentration. A similar warming impact can be expected in the entire boreal zone, where warming takes place. Given the large size of the boreal biome - more than ten million km2- important climate feedbacks are at stake, such as the future carbon balance, transpiration and albedo.

  10. Warming patterns in regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez-Navarro, J.J.; Montavez, J.P.; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.; Jerez, S. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Garcia-Valero, J.A. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Delegacion Territorial en Murcia (ES). Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera

    2010-06-15

    A set of four regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula has been performed. Simulations were driven by two General Circulation Models (consisting of two versions of the same atmospheric model coupled to two different ocean models) under two different SRES scenario. The XXI century has been simulated following a full-transient approach with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOF) is applied to the monthly mean series of daily maximum and minimum 2-metre temperature to extract the warming signal. The first EOF is able to capture the spatial structure of the warming. The obtained warming patterns are fairly dependent on the month, but hardly change with the tested scenarios and GCM versions. Their shapes are related to geographical parameters, such as distance to the sea and orography. The main differences among simulations mostly concern the temporal evolution of the warming. The temperature trend is stronger for maximum temperatures and depends on the scenario and the driving GCM. This asymmetry, as well as the different warming rates in summer and winter, leads to a continentalization of the climate over the IP. (orig.)

  11. Responses of community-level plant-insect interactions to climate warming in a meadow steppe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hui; Zou, Xuehui; Wang, Deli; Wan, Shiqiang; Wang, Ling; Guo, Jixun

    2015-12-21

    Climate warming may disrupt trophic interactions, consequently influencing ecosystem functioning. Most studies have concentrated on the temperature-effects on plant-insect interactions at individual and population levels, with a particular emphasis on changes in phenology and distribution. Nevertheless, the available evidence from the community level is limited. A 3-year field manipulative experiment was performed to test potential responses of plant and insect communities, and plant-insect interactions, to elevated temperature in a meadow steppe. Warming increased the biomass of plant community and forbs, and decreased grass biomass, indicating a shift from grass-dominant to grass-forb mixed plant community. Reduced abundance of the insect community under warming, particularly the herbivorous insects, was attributed to lower abundance of Euchorthippus unicolor and a Cicadellidae species resulting from lower food availability and higher defensive herbivory. Lower herbivore abundance caused lower predator species richness because of reduced prey resources and contributed to an overall decrease in insect species richness. Interestingly, warming enhanced the positive relationship between insect and plant species richness, implying that the strength of the plant-insect interactions was altered by warming. Our results suggest that alterations to plant-insect interactions at a community level under climate warming in grasslands may be more important and complex than previously thought.

  12. Responses of community-level plant-insect interactions to climate warming in a meadow steppe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hui; Zou, Xuehui; Wang, Deli; Wan, Shiqiang; Wang, Ling; Guo, Jixun

    2015-01-01

    Climate warming may disrupt trophic interactions, consequently influencing ecosystem functioning. Most studies have concentrated on the temperature-effects on plant-insect interactions at individual and population levels, with a particular emphasis on changes in phenology and distribution. Nevertheless, the available evidence from the community level is limited. A 3-year field manipulative experiment was performed to test potential responses of plant and insect communities, and plant-insect interactions, to elevated temperature in a meadow steppe. Warming increased the biomass of plant community and forbs, and decreased grass biomass, indicating a shift from grass-dominant to grass-forb mixed plant community. Reduced abundance of the insect community under warming, particularly the herbivorous insects, was attributed to lower abundance of Euchorthippus unicolor and a Cicadellidae species resulting from lower food availability and higher defensive herbivory. Lower herbivore abundance caused lower predator species richness because of reduced prey resources and contributed to an overall decrease in insect species richness. Interestingly, warming enhanced the positive relationship between insect and plant species richness, implying that the strength of the plant-insect interactions was altered by warming. Our results suggest that alterations to plant-insect interactions at a community level under climate warming in grasslands may be more important and complex than previously thought. PMID:26686758

  13. Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowlands, Daniel J.; Frame, David J.; Ackerley, Duncan; Aina, Tolu; Booth, Ben B. B.; Christensen, Carl; Collins, Matthew; Faull, Nicholas; Forest, Chris E.; Grandey, Benjamin S.; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Highwood, Eleanor J.; Ingram, William J.; Knight, Sylvia; Lopez, Ana; Massey, Neil; McNamara, Frances; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Piani, Claudio; Rosier, Suzanne M.; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Smith, Leonard A.; Stone, Dáithí A.; Thurston, Milo; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Hiro Yamazaki, Y.; Allen, Myles R.

    2012-04-01

    Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system--equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing--and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first century. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far relied on scaling approaches, large ensembles of simplified climate models, or small ensembles of complex coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models which under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties derived from independent sources. Here we present results from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble of transient coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4-3K by 2050, relative to 1961-1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, but extends towards larger warming than observed in ensembles-of-opportunity typically used for climate impact assessments. From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range `no mitigation' scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions.

  14. Climate warming and Bergmann's rule through time: is there any evidence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teplitsky, Celine; Millien, Virginie

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is expected to induce many ecological and evolutionary changes. Among these is the hypothesis that climate warming will cause a reduction in body size. This hypothesis stems from Bergmann's rule, a trend whereby species exhibit a smaller body size in warmer climates, and larger body size under colder conditions in endotherms. The mechanisms behind this rule are still debated, and it is not clear whether Bergmann's rule can be extended to predict the effects of climate change through time. We reviewed the primary literature for evidence (i) of a decrease in body size in response to climate warming, (ii) that changing body size is an adaptive response and (iii) that these responses are evolutionary or plastic. We found weak evidence for changes in body size through time as predicted by Bergmann's rule. Only three studies investigated the adaptive nature of these size decreases. Of these, none reported evidence of selection for smaller size or of a genetic basis for the size change, suggesting that size decreases could be due to nonadaptive plasticity in response to changing environmental conditions. More studies are needed before firm conclusions can be drawn about the underlying causes of these changes in body size in response to a warming climate. PMID:24454554

  15. Sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to cloud changes in warm climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2016-04-01

    Climates of the deep past have posed the longstanding challenge to understand which mechanisms maintained very warm climates. Warm climates have been hard to simulate without very high CO2 concentrations compared to estimates from proxy data. Large climate sensitivity implies a route to warm temperatures without very high concentrations of CO2. In at least one model cloud feedbacks play a central role in increasing climate sensitivity with temperature. However, it is hard to evaluate cloud feedbacks using proxies. On the other hand, there are proxies that provide information about the hydrologic cycle for example through estimating aridity and isotope analysis of leaf wax. Cloud feedbacks could influence the hydrologic cycle through a change in the shortwave radiative flux at the surface that causes a change in latent heat flux and thereby a change in precipitation. We study the impact of clouds in a general circulation model for a broad range of temperatures. One set of simulations with variable clouds is compared to a set of simulations where clouds are represented by a climatology. Our aim to provide a constraint for cloud feedbacks based on hydrology proves elusive. Precipitation change with temperature is very similar regardless of cloud treatment and there is no saturation effect in precipitation as seen in idealized models. However, there is a large change in shortwave absorption by atmospheric water vapor. Our results indicate that the hydrologic cycle is not sensitive to cloud representation in Eocene-like climates but correct representation of shortwave absorption is essential.

  16. Overestimating climate warming-induced methane gas escape from the seafloor by neglecting multiphase flow dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stranne, C.; O'Regan, M.; Jakobsson, M.

    2016-08-01

    Continental margins host large quantities of methane stored partly as hydrates in sediments. Release of methane through hydrate dissociation is implicated as a possible feedback mechanism to climate change. Large-scale estimates of future warming-induced methane release are commonly based on a hydrate stability approach that omits dynamic processes. Here we use the multiphase flow model TOUGH + hydrate (T + H) to quantitatively investigate how dynamic processes affect dissociation rates and methane release. The simulations involve shallow, 20-100 m thick hydrate deposits, forced by a bottom water temperature increase of 0.03°C yr-1 over 100 years. We show that on a centennial time scale, the hydrate stability approach can overestimate gas escape quantities by orders of magnitude. Our results indicate a time lag of > 40 years between the onset of warming and gas escape, meaning that recent climate warming may soon be manifested as widespread gas seepages along the world's continental margins.

  17. Innovation in a warming world. Research tackling Europe's grand challenge of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Usanov, A.; Gehem, M.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is arguably the largest environmental challenge facing humankind. Though the impact will be gradual and difficult to predict, we slowly start to understand how this process will affect our planet. The study "Innovation in a Warming World" spells out these effects, specifically for Eur

  18. Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.;

    2005-01-01

    Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the onl...

  19. Role of Western Hemisphere Warm Pool in Rapid Climate Changes over the Western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Jae-Heung; An, Soon-Il

    2017-04-01

    Oceanic states over the western North Pacific (WNP), which is surrounded by heavily populated countries, are closely tied to the lives of the people in East Asia in regards to both climate and socioeconomics. As global warming continues, remarkable increases in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) have been observed in the WNP in recent decades. Here, we show that the SST increase in the western hemisphere warm pool (WHWP), which is the second largest warm pool on the globe, has contributed considerably to the rapid surface warming and sea level rise in the WNP via its remote teleconnection along the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). State-of-the-art climate models strongly support the role of the WHWP not only on interannual time sales but also in long-term climate projections. We expect that understanding the processes initiated by the WHWP-SST could permit better forecasts of western North Pacific climate and the further development of the socioeconomics of East Asia.

  20. Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a climatic warming: a model study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1982-01-01

    It is generally believed that the increasing C02 content of the atmosphere will lead to a substantial climatic warming in the polar regions. In this study the effect of consequent changes in the ice accumulation rate over the Antarctic Ice Sheet is investigated by means of a numerical ice flow model

  1. An Alternative View of the Climate Warming Mitigation Potential of U.S. Temperate Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many U.S. federal and non-governmental agencies promote forestation as a means to mitigate climate warming because of the carbon sequestration potential of forests. This biogeochemical-oriented carbon sequestration policy is somewhat inconsistent with a decade or more of researc...

  2. Global negative vegetation feedback to climate warming responses of leaf litter decomposition rates in cold biomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornelissen, Johannes H C; van Bodegom, Peter M; Aerts, Rien; Callaghan, Terry V; van Logtestijn, Richard S P; Alatalo, Juha; Chapin, F Stuart; Gerdol, Renato; Gudmundsson, Jon; Gwynn-Jones, Dylan; Hartley, Anne E; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S; Karlsson, Staffan; Klein, Julia A; Laundre, Jim; Magnusson, Borgthor; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Onipchenko, Vladimir G; Quested, Helen M; Sandvik, Sylvi M; Schmidt, Inger K; Shaver, Gus R; Solheim, Bjørn; Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Ørjan; Wada, Naoya; Welker, Jeffrey M; Zhao, Xinquan

    2007-07-01

    Whether climate change will turn cold biomes from large long-term carbon sinks into sources is hotly debated because of the great potential for ecosystem-mediated feedbacks to global climate. Critical are the direction, magnitude and generality of climate responses of plant litter decomposition. Here, we present the first quantitative analysis of the major climate-change-related drivers of litter decomposition rates in cold northern biomes worldwide. Leaf litters collected from the predominant species in 33 global change manipulation experiments in circum-arctic-alpine ecosystems were incubated simultaneously in two contrasting arctic life zones. We demonstrate that longer-term, large-scale changes to leaf litter decomposition will be driven primarily by both direct warming effects and concomitant shifts in plant growth form composition, with a much smaller role for changes in litter quality within species. Specifically, the ongoing warming-induced expansion of shrubs with recalcitrant leaf litter across cold biomes would constitute a negative feedback to global warming. Depending on the strength of other (previously reported) positive feedbacks of shrub expansion on soil carbon turnover, this may partly counteract direct warming enhancement of litter decomposition.

  3. CLIMATIC FEATURES OF SEA TEMPERATURE OF WARM POOL AND RELATIONSHIP WITH SST OF ITS ADJACENT REGIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    任小波; 周秀骥; 陈隆勋

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, climatic features of sea temperature of western Pacific warm pool and the relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) of its adjacent regions are analyzed based on the observed sea temperature on vertical cross section along 137°E in western Pacific, the monthly mean SST of Xisha Station in South China Sea and the global monthly mean SST with resolution of 1°× 1° (U. K./GISST2.2). The results indicate that (1) in a sense of correlation, SST of western Pacific warm pool can represent its sea subsurface temperature from surface to 200 m-depth level in winter, and it can only represent sea temperature from surface to 70 m depth in summer. The sea subsurface temperature anomaly of warm pool may be more suitable for representing thermal regime of western Pacific warm pool. The sea subsurface temperature of warm pool has a characteristic of quasi-biennial oscillation. (2) Warm pool and Kuroshio current are subject to different ocean current systems. (3) Furthermore, the relationship between SST of Xisha Station and SST of warm pool has a characteristic of negative correlation in winter and positive correlation in summer, and a better lag negative correlation of SST of Xisha Station with sea subsurface temperature of warm pool exists. (4) Additionally, oscillation structure of sea temperature like "a seesaw" exists in between warm pool and Regions Nino3 and Nino4. January (June) maximum(minimum) sea subsurface temperature anomaly of warm pool may serve as a strong signal that indicates maturity phase (development phase) of La Nina (El Nino) event, it also acts as a strong signal which reveals variations of SST of Regions Nino3 and Nino4.

  4. Experimental climate warming decreases photosynthetic efficiency of lichens in an arid South African ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maphangwa, Khumbudzo Walter; Musil, Charles F; Raitt, Lincoln; Zedda, Luciana

    2012-05-01

    Elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts accompanying climate warming in arid ecosystems are expected to have adverse effects on the photosynthesis of lichen species sensitive to elevated temperature and/or water limitation. This premise was tested by artificially elevating temperatures (increase 2.1-3.8°C) and reducing the amounts of fog and dew precipitation (decrease 30.1-31.9%), in an approximation of future climate warming scenarios, using transparent hexagonal open-top warming chambers placed around natural populations of four lichen species (Xanthoparmelia austroafricana, X. hyporhytida , Xanthoparmelia. sp., Xanthomaculina hottentotta) at a dry inland site and two lichen species (Teloschistes capensis and Ramalina sp.) at a humid coastal site in the arid South African Succulent Karoo Biome. Effective photosynthetic quantum yields ([Formula: see text]) were measured hourly throughout the day at monthly intervals in pre-hydrated lichens present in the open-top warming chambers and in controls which comprised demarcated plots of equivalent open-top warming chamber dimensions constructed from 5-cm-diameter mesh steel fencing. The cumulative effects of the elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts in the open-top warming chambers resulted in significant decreases in lichen [Formula: see text]. The decreases were more pronounced in lichens from the dry inland site (decline 34.1-46.1%) than in those from the humid coastal site (decline 11.3-13.7%), most frequent and prominent in lichens at both sites during the dry summer season, and generally of greatest magnitude at or after the solar noon in all seasons. Based on these results, we conclude that climate warming interacting with reduced precipitation will negatively affect carbon balances in endemic lichens by increasing desiccation damage and reducing photosynthetic activity time, leading to increased incidences of mortality.

  5. Human Caused Fire and Acres

    Data.gov (United States)

    Bureau of Land Management, Department of the Interior — Number of wildland fires and acres burned as a result of human causes, from 2001 through 2008 (updated annually). Displayed by the eleven Geographic Areas used by...

  6. Potential change in forest types and stand heights in central Siberia in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Korets, M. A.; Conard, S. G.

    2016-03-01

    Previous regional studies in Siberia have demonstrated climate warming and associated changes in distribution of vegetation and forest types, starting at the end of the 20th century. In this study we used two regional bioclimatic envelope models to simulate potential changes in forest types distribution and developed new regression models to simulate changes in stand height in tablelands and southern mountains of central Siberia under warming 21st century climate. Stand height models were based on forest inventory data (2850 plots). The forest type and stand height maps were superimposed to identify how heights would change in different forest types in future climates. Climate projections from the general circulation model Hadley HadCM3 for emission scenarios B1 and A2 for 2080s were paired with the regional bioclimatic models. Under the harsh A2 scenario, simulated changes included: a 80%-90% decrease in forest-tundra and tundra, a 30% decrease in forest area, a ˜400% increase in forest-steppe, and a 2200% increase in steppe, forest-steppe and steppe would cover 55% of central Siberia. Under sufficiently moist conditions, the southern and middle taiga were simulated to benefit from 21st century climate warming. Habitats suitable for highly-productive forests (≥30-40 m stand height) were simulated to increase at the expense of less productive forests (10-20 m). In response to the more extreme A2 climate the area of these highly-productive forests would increase 10%-25%. Stand height increases of 10 m were simulated over 35%-50% of the current forest area in central Siberia. In the extremely warm A2 climate scenario, the tall trees (25-30 m) would occur over 8%-12% of area in all forest types except forest-tundra by the end of the century. In forest-steppe, trees of 30-40 m may cover some 15% of the area under sufficient moisture.

  7. Climate warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Wit, Heleen A; Bryn, Anders; Hofgaard, Annika; Karstensen, Jonas; Kvalevåg, Maria M; Peters, Glen P

    2014-07-01

    Expanding high-elevation and high-latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south-central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land-use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow-covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high-latitude and high-elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts.

  8. Impacts on regional climate of an afforestation scenario under a +2°C global warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strada, Susanna; Noblet-Ducoudré Nathalie, de; Marc, Stéfanon

    2017-04-01

    Through surface-atmosphere interactions (SAI), land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) alter atmospheric conditions with effects on climate at different scales, from local/regional (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global scales (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Focusing on the regional scale, in the context of climate change, LULCCs may either enhance or dampen climate impacts via changes in SAI they may initiate. Those LULCC-driven atmospheric impacts could in turn influence e.g. the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences on mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite LULCC impacts on regional climate are largely discussed in the literature, in Europe information is missing on LULCC impacts under future climate conditions on a country scale (Galos et al., 2015). The latest COPs have urged the scientific community to explore the impacts of reduced global warming (1.5°C to a +2°C) on the Earth system. LULCCs will be one major tool to achieve such targets. In this framework, we investigate impacts on regional climate of a modified landscape under a +2°C climatic scenario. To this purpose, we performed sensitivity studies over western Europe with a fully coupled land-atmosphere regional climate model, WRF-ORCHIDEE (Drobinski et al., 2012, Stefanon et al., 2014). A +2°C scenario was selected among those proposed by the "Impact2C" project (Vautard et al., 2014), and the afforested land-cover scenario proposed in the RCP4.5 is prescribed. We have chosen the maximum extent of forest RCP4.5 simulates for Europe at the end of the 21st century. WRF-ORCHIDEE is fed with boundary atmospheric conditions from the global climate model LMDZ for PD (1971-2000) and the +2°C warming period for the LMDZ model (2028-2057). Preliminary results over the target domain show that, under a +2°C global warming scenario, afforestation contributes by 2% to the total warming due to both climate change and LULCCs. During summer, the

  9. The Effect of Urban Heat Island on Climate Warming in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Qunfang; Lu, Yuqi

    2015-07-27

    The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic development since 1978 and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) has been one of the three largest urban agglomerations in China. We present evidence of a significant urban heat island (UHI) effect on climate warming based on an analysis of the impacts of the urbanization rate, urban population, and land use changes on the warming rate of the daily average, minimal (nighttime) and maximal (daytime) air temperature in the YRDUA using 41 meteorological stations observation data. The effect of the UHI on climate warming shows a large spatial variability. The average warming rates of average air temperature of huge cities, megalopolises, large cities, medium-sized cities, and small cities are 0.483, 0.314 ± 0.030, 0.282 ± 0.042, 0.225 ± 0.044 and 0.179 ± 0.046 °C/decade during the period of 1957-2013, respectively. The average warming rates of huge cities and megalopolises are significantly higher than those of medium-sized cities and small cities, indicating that the UHI has a significant effect on climate warming (t-test, p warming rate of average air temperature (p warming rate of average air temperature attributable to urbanization is 0.124 ± 0.074 °C/decade in the YRDUA. Urbanization has a measurable effect on the observed climate warming in the YRD aggravating the global climate warming.

  10. Climate and tourism in the Black Forest during the warm season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2011-03-01

    Climate, climate change and tourism all interact. Part of the public discussion about climate change focusses on the tourism sector, with direct and indirect impacts being of equally high relevance. Climate and tourism are closely linked. Thus, climate is a very decisive factor in choices both of destination and of type of journey (active holidays, wellness, and city tours) in the tourism sector. However, whether choices about destinations or types of trip will alter with climate change is difficult to predict. Future climates can be simulated and projected, and the tendencies of climate parameters can be estimated using global and regional climate models. In this paper, the focus is on climate change in the mountainous regions of southwest Germany - the Black Forest. The Black Forest is one of the low mountain ranges where both winter and summer tourism are vulnerable to climate change due to its southern location; the strongest climatic changes are expected in areas covering the south and southwest of Germany. Moreover, as the choice of destination is highly dependent on good weather, a climatic assessment for tourism is essential. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate climatic changes in mountainous regions during summer, especially for tourism and recreation. The assessment method was based on human-biometeorology as well as tourism-climatologic approaches. Regional climate simulations based on the regional climate model REMO were used for tourism-related climatic analyses. Emission scenarios A1B and B1 were considered for the time period 2021 to 2050, compared to the 30-year base period of 1971-2000, particularly for the warm period of the year, defined here as the months of March-November. In this study, we quantified the frequency, but not the means, of climate parameters. The study results show that global and regional warming is reflected in an increase in annual mean air temperature, especially in autumn. Changes in the spring show a slight negative

  11. Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

    2014-12-01

    Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature

  12. Climate warming, marine protected areas and the ocean-scale integrity of coral reef ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Graham, N. A. J.; Mcclanahan, T.R.; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Wilson, Shaun K.; Polunin, Nicholas; Jennings, Simon; Chabanet, Pascale; Clark, Susan; Spalding, Mark; Letourneur, Yves; Bigot, Lionel; Galzin, René; Öhman, Marcus C; Garpe, Kajsa C.; Edwards, Alasdair J.

    2008-01-01

    Coral reefs have emerged as one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate variation and change. While the contribution\\ud of a warming climate to the loss of live coral cover has been well documented across large spatial and temporal scales, the\\ud associated effects on fish have not. Here, we respond to recent and repeated calls to assess the importance of local\\ud management in conserving coral reefs in the context of global climate change. Such information is important, as coral reef\\ud...

  13. The phenotypic characterization of yeast strains to stresses inherent to wine fermentation in warm climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, M; Greetham, D; Wimalasena, T T; Phister, T G; Cabellos, J M; Arroyo, T

    2016-07-01

    Climate change is exerting an increasingly profound effect on grape composition, microbiology, chemistry and the sensory aspects of wine. Identification of autochthonous yeasts tolerant to stress could help to alleviate this effect. Tolerance to osmotic pressure, ethanol and pH of 94 Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains and 29 strains non-Saccharomyces from the warm climate region DO 'Vinos de Madrid' (Spain) using phenotypic microarray and their fermentative behaviour were studied. The screening highlighted 12 strains of S. cerevisiae isolated from organic cellars with improved tolerance to osmotic stress, high ethanol concentrations and suitable fermentative properties. Screening of non-Saccharomyces spp. such as Lanchacea thermotolerans, Torulaspora delbrueckii, Schizosaccharomyces pombe and Mestchnikowia pulcherrima also highlighted tolerance to these stress conditions. This study confirmed the adaptation of native strains to the climatic conditions in each area of production and correlated these adaptations with good fermentation properties. Screening has revealed that identifying yeast strains adapted to fermentation stresses is an important approach for making quality wines in very warm areas. The results have special relevance because it is a pioneering study that has approached the problem of climate change for wines from a microbiological aspect and has analysed the situation in situ in wineries from a warm climate zone. Resistant strains were found with good biological properties; studying these strains for their stress response mechanisms during fermentation will be of interest to the wine making industry. © 2016 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  14. Estimating present climate in a warming world: a model-based approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raeisaenen, J.; Ruokolainen, L. [University of Helsinki (Finland). Division of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysics

    2008-09-30

    Weather services base their operational definitions of 'present' climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period such as 1961-1990 or 1971-2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a 'delta change' method, in which model-simulated climate changes and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991-2002, the method works well for temperature, with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the observations for 1961-1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica, 8-9 months per year and 8-9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971-2000. Along with the overall warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature is expected.

  15. Is This Global Warming? Communicating the Intangibles of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, L.; Henson, R.

    2004-05-01

    Unlike weather, which is immediate, tangible, and relevant on a daily basis, climate change is long-term, slow to evolve, and often difficult to relate to the public's daily concerns. By explaining global-change research to wide and diverse audiences through a variety of vehicles, including publications, exhibits, Web sites, and television B-roll, UCAR has gained experience and perspective on the challenges involved. This talk will explore some of the lessons learned and some of the key difficulties that face global-change communicators, including: --The lack of definitive findings on regional effects of global change -- The long time frame in which global change plays out, versus the short attention span of media, the public, and policy makers --The use of weather events as news pegs (they pique interest, but they may not be good exemplars of global change and are difficult to relate directly to changes in greenhouse-gas emissions) --The perils of the traditional journalistic technique of point-counterpoint in discussing climate change --The presence of strong personal/political convictions among various interest groups and how these affect the message(s) conveyed

  16. Prediction of abundance of beetles according to climate warming in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae-Sung Kwon

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available To identify the change in distribution of insects in climate warming, changes in abundance of beetles were predicted using data from 366 survey sites (forests in South Korea. Abundance along temperature gradients showed patterns (linear or hump-shaped of normal distribution for 18 candidate species. Mean abundance in temperature zones of these species was used to predict the change in abundance. Temperature change was based on climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and abundance of the two periods from 2011 to 2015 and 2056 to 2065 were predicted. Of the 18 species analyzed, six were predicted to increase in abundance and 12 were predicted to decrease. Using a high relationship between abundance change and temperature of collected sites, a qualitative prediction was conducted on non-candidate species with ≥ 1% occurrence. This prediction also shows that more beetle species in South Korea will decrease rather than increase as climate warms.

  17. Prediction of abundance of forest spiders according to climate warming in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae-Sung Kwon

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Distribution of spiders will be changed as climate warms. Abundance of spider species was predicted nationwide in South Korea. Abundance of spiders was projected using temperature species distribution model based on a nationwide data (366 forest sites according to climate change scenario RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The model predicts that 9 out of 17 species will increase in abundance while 8 species will decrease. Based on this finding, a qualitative prediction (increase or decrease was conducted on the species with more than 1% occurrence: 68 species are expected to decrease, 9 to increase, and 8 to change a little. In pooled estimation, 76 species (75% are expected to decrease, 18 species (18% to increase, and by 8 species (8% to have little change. The projection indicates that majority of spider species will decrease, but minority of species will increase as climate warms, suggesting great increase of remained species in lowlands.

  18. Climate warming increases biological control agent impact on a non-target species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinmin; Siemann, Evan; He, Minyan; Wei, Hui; Shao, Xu; Ding, Jianqing

    2015-01-01

    Climate change may shift interactions of invasive plants, herbivorous insects and native plants, potentially affecting biological control efficacy and non-target effects on native species. Here, we show how climate warming affects impacts of a multivoltine introduced biocontrol beetle on the non-target native plant Alternanthera sessilis in China. In field surveys across a latitudinal gradient covering their full distributions, we found beetle damage on A. sessilis increased with rising temperature and plant life history changed from perennial to annual. Experiments showed that elevated temperature changed plant life history and increased insect overwintering, damage and impacts on seedling recruitment. These results suggest that warming can shift phenologies, increase non-target effect magnitude and increase non-target effect occurrence by beetle range expansion to additional areas where A. sessilis occurs. This study highlights the importance of understanding how climate change affects species interactions for future biological control of invasive species and conservation of native species.

  19. Climate warming increases biological control agent impact on a non-target species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinmin; Siemann, Evan; He, Minyan; Wei, Hui; Shao, Xu; Ding, Jianqing

    2015-01-01

    Climate change may shift interactions of invasive plants, herbivorous insects and native plants, potentially affecting biological control efficacy and non-target effects on native species. Here, we show how climate warming affects impacts of a multivoltine introduced biocontrol beetle on the non-target native plant Alternanthera sessilis in China. In field surveys across a latitudinal gradient covering their full distributions, we found beetle damage on A. sessilis increased with rising temperature and plant life history changed from perennial to annual. Experiments showed that elevated temperature changed plant life history and increased insect overwintering, damage and impacts on seedling recruitment. These results suggest that warming can shift phenologies, increase non-target effect magnitude and increase non-target effect occurrence by beetle range expansion to additional areas where A. sessilis occurs. This study highlights the importance of understanding how climate change affects species interactions for future biological control of invasive species and conservation of native species. PMID:25376303

  20. "Global warming, continental drying? Interpreting projected aridity changes over land under climate change"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, a number of studies have suggested that, as climate warms, the land surface will globally become more arid. Such results usually rely on drought or aridity diagnostics, such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the Aridity Index (ratio of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration, PET), applied to climate model projections of surface climate. From a global perspective, the projected widespread drying of the land surface is generally interpreted as the result of the dominant, ubiquitous warming-induced PET increase, which overwhelms the slight overall precipitation increase projected over land. However, several lines of evidence, based on (paleo)observations and climate model projections, raise questions regarding this interpretation of terrestrial climate change. In this talk, I will review elements of the literature supporting these different perspectives, and will present recent results based on CMIP5 climate model projections regarding changes in aridity over land that shed some light on this discussion. Central to the interpretation of projected land aridity changes is the understanding of projected PET trends over land and their link with changes in other variables of the terrestrial water cycle (ET, soil moisture) and surface climate in the context of the coupled land-atmosphere system.

  1. The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer "cold-blooded" animals against climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearney, Michael; Shine, Richard; Porter, Warren P

    2009-03-10

    Increasing concern about the impacts of global warming on biodiversity has stimulated extensive discussion, but methods to translate broad-scale shifts in climate into direct impacts on living animals remain simplistic. A key missing element from models of climatic change impacts on animals is the buffering influence of behavioral thermoregulation. Here, we show how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate, topography, and vegetation to predict impacts of increased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity). We show that for most "cold-blooded" terrestrial animals, the primary thermal challenge is not to attain high body temperatures (although this is important in temperate environments) but to stay cool (particularly in tropical and desert areas, where ectotherm biodiversity is greatest). The impact of climate warming on thermoregulating ectotherms will depend critically on how changes in vegetation cover alter the availability of shade as well as the animals' capacities to alter their seasonal timing of activity and reproduction. Warmer environments also may increase maintenance energy costs while simultaneously constraining activity time, putting pressure on mass and energy budgets. Energy- and mass-balance models provide a general method to integrate the complexity of these direct interactions between organisms and climate into spatial predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity. This methodology allows quantitative organism- and habitat-specific assessments of climate change impacts.

  2. Different sensitivities of snowpacks to warming in Mediterranean climate mountain areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Moreno, J. I.; Gascoin, S.; Herrero, J.; Sproles, E. A.; Pons, M.; Alonso-González, E.; Hanich, L.; Boudhar, A.; Musselman, K. N.; Molotch, N. P.; Sickman, J.; Pomeroy, J.

    2017-07-01

    In this study we quantified the sensitivity of snow to climate warming in selected mountain sites having a Mediterranean climate, including the Pyrenees in Spain and Andorra, the Sierra Nevada in Spain and California (USA), the Atlas in Morocco, and the Andes in Chile. Meteorological observations from high elevations were used to simulate the snow energy and mass balance (SEMB) and calculate its sensitivity to climate. Very different climate sensitivities were evident amongst the various sites. For example, reductions of 9%-19% and 6-28 days in the mean snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow duration, respectively, were found per °C increase. Simulated changes in precipitation (±20%) did not affect the sensitivities. The Andes and Atlas Mountains have a shallow and cold snowpack, and net radiation dominates the SEMB; and explains their relatively low sensitivity to climate warming. The Pyrenees and USA Sierra Nevada have a deeper and warmer snowpack, and sensible heat flux is more important in the SEMB; this explains the much greater sensitivities of these regions. Differences in sensitivity help explain why, in regions where climate models project relatively greater temperature increases and drier conditions by 2050 (such as the Spanish Sierra Nevada and the Moroccan Atlas Mountains), the decline in snow accumulation and duration is similar to other sites (such as the Pyrenees and the USA Sierra Nevada), where models project stable precipitation and more attenuated warming. The snowpack in the Andes (Chile) exhibited the lowest sensitivity to warming, and is expected to undergo only moderate change (a decrease of <12% in mean SWE, and a reduction of < 7 days in snow duration under RCP 4.5). Snow accumulation and duration in the other regions are projected to decrease substantially (a minimum of 40% in mean SWE and 15 days in snow duration) by 2050.

  3. Climate Model Dependency and Understanding the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Warm Late Pliocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, Aisling; de Boer, Bas; Bernales, Jorge; Hunter, Stephen; Haywood, Alan

    2016-04-01

    In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals of Earth history is fundamentally important. A warm period in the Late Pliocene (3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions and geological evidence. Following a five year international project PLISMIP (Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project) we present the final set of results which quantify uncertainty in climate model-based predictions of the Antarctic ice sheet. In this study we use an ensemble of climate model forcings within a multi-ice sheet model framework to assess the climate (model) dependency of large scale features of the Antarctic ice sheet. Seven coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models are used to derive surface temperature, precipitation and oceanic forcing that drive three ice sheet models (over the grounded and floating domain). Similar to results presented over Greenland, we show that the reconstruction of the Antarctic ice sheet is sensitive to which climate model is used to provide the forcing field. Key areas of uncertainty include West Antarctica, the large subglacial basins of East Antarctica and the overall thickness of the continental interior of East Antarctica. We relate the results back to geological proxy data, such as those relating to exposure rates which provide information on potential ice sheet thickness. Finally we discuss as to whether the choice of modelling framework (i.e. climate model and ice sheet model used) or the choice of boundary conditions causes the greatest uncertainty in ice sheet reconstructions of the warm Pliocene.

  4. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  5. Vegetation exerts a greater control on litter decomposition than climate warming in peatlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Susan E; Orwin, Kate H; Ostle, Nicholas J; Briones, J I; Thomson, Bruce C; Griffiths, Robert I; Oakley, Simon; Quirk, Helen; Bardget, Richard D

    2015-01-01

    Historically, slow decomposition rates have resulted in the accumulation of large amounts of carbon in northern peatlands. Both climate warming and vegetation change can alter rates of decomposition, and hence affect rates of atmospheric CO2 exchange, with consequences for climate change feedbacks. Although warming and vegetation change are happening concurrently, little is known about their relative and interactive effects on decomposition processes. To test the effects of warming and vegetation change on decomposition rates, we placed litter of three dominant species (Calluna vulgaris, Eriophorum vaginatum, Hypnum jutlandicum) into a peatland field experiment that combined warming.with plant functional group removals, and measured mass loss over two years. To identify potential mechanisms behind effects, we also measured nutrient cycling and soil biota. We found that plant functional group removals exerted a stronger control over short-term litter decomposition than did approximately 1 degrees C warming, and that the plant removal effect depended on litter species identity. Specifically, rates of litter decomposition were faster when shrubs were removed from the plant community, and these effects were strongest for graminoid and bryophyte litter. Plant functional group removals also had strong effects on soil biota and nutrient cycling associated with decomposition, whereby shrub removal had cascading effects on soil fungal community composition, increased enchytraeid abundance, and increased rates of N mineralization. Our findings demonstrate that, in addition to litter quality, changes in vegetation composition play a significant role in regulating short-term litter decomposition and belowground communities in peatland, and that these impacts can be greater than moderate warming effects. Our findings, albeit from a relatively short-term study, highlight the need to consider both vegetation change and its impacts below ground alongside climatic effects when

  6. Inductive analysis about the impact of climate warming on regional geomorphic evolution in arid area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anayit, Mattohti; Abulizi, Mailiya

    2016-04-01

    Climate change on the surface of earth will produce a chain reaction among so many global natural environmental elements. Namely, all the issues will be affected by the climate change, just like the regional water environment, formation and development of landscape, plants and animals living environment, the survival of microorganisms, the human economic environment and health, and the whole social environment changes at well. But because of slow frequency of climate change and it is volatility change, its influence on other factors and the overall environmental performance is not obvious, and its reflection performs slowly. Using regional weather data, we calculated qualitatively and quantitatively and did analysis the impact of climate warming on Xinjiang (a province of China) geomorphic evolution elements, including the ground weather, erosion rate, collapse change, landslide occurrences changes and impact debris flow, combining the field survey and indoor test methods. Key words: climate change; the geomorphic induction; landscape change in river basin; Xinjiang

  7. Climate warming, euxinia and carbon isotope perturbations during the Carnian (Triassic) Crisis in South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Y. D.; Wignall, P. B.; Joachimski, M. M.; Bond, D. P. G.; Grasby, S. E.; Lai, X. L.; Wang, L. N.; Zhang, Z. T.; Sun, S.

    2016-06-01

    The Carnian Humid Episode (CHE), also known as the Carnian Pluvial Event, and associated biotic changes are major enigmas of the Mesozoic record in western Tethys. We show that the CHE also occurred in eastern Tethys (South China), suggestive of a much more widespread and probably global climate perturbation. Oxygen isotope records from conodont apatite indicate a double-pulse warming event. The CHE coincided with an initial warming of 4 °C. This was followed by a transient cooling period and then a prolonged ∼7 °C warming in the later Carnian (Tuvalian 2). Carbon isotope perturbations associated with the CHE of western Tethys occurred contemporaneously in South China, and mark the start of a prolonged period of carbon cycle instability that persisted until the late Carnian. The dry-wet transition during the CHE coincides with the negative carbon isotope excursion and the temperature rise, pointing to an intensification of hydrologic cycle activities due to climatic warming. While carbonate platform shutdown in western Tethys is associated with an influx of siliciclastic sediment, the eastern Tethyan carbonate platforms are overlain by deep-water anoxic facies. The transition from oxygenated to euxinic facies was via a condensed, manganiferous carbonate (MnO content up to 15.1 wt%), that records an intense Mn shuttle operating in the basin. Significant siliciclastic influx in South China only occurred after the CHE climatic changes and was probably due to foreland basin development at the onset of the Indosinian Orogeny. The mid-Carnian biotic crisis thus coincided with several phenomena associated with major extinction events: a carbonate production crisis, climate warming, δ13 C oscillations, marine anoxia, biotic turnover and flood basalt eruptions (of the Wrangellia Large Igneous Province).

  8. Climate warming and agricultural stressors interact to determine stream periphyton community composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piggott, Jeremy J; Salis, Romana K; Lear, Gavin; Townsend, Colin R; Matthaei, Christoph D

    2015-01-01

    Lack of knowledge about how the various drivers of global climate change will interact with multiple stressors already affecting ecosystems is the basis for great uncertainty in projections of future biological change. Despite concerns about the impacts of changes in land use, eutrophication and climate warming in running waters, the interactive effects of these stressors on stream periphyton are largely unknown. We manipulated nutrients (simulating agricultural runoff), deposited fine sediment (simulating agricultural erosion) (two levels each) and water temperature (eight levels, 0-6 °C above ambient) simultaneously in 128 streamside mesocosms. Our aim was to determine the individual and combined effects of the three stressors on the algal and bacterial constituents of the periphyton. All three stressors had pervasive individual effects, but in combination frequently produced synergisms at the population level and antagonisms at the community level. Depending on sediment and nutrient conditions, the effect of raised temperature frequently produced contrasting response patterns, with stronger or opposing effects when one or both stressors were augmented. Thus, warming tended to interact negatively with nutrients or sediment by weakening or reversing positive temperature effects or strengthening negative ones. Five classes of algal growth morphology were all affected in complex ways by raised temperature, suggesting that these measures may prove unreliable in biomonitoring programs in a warming climate. The evenness and diversity of the most abundant bacterial taxa increased with temperature at ambient but not with enriched nutrient levels, indicating that warming coupled with nutrient limitation may lead to a more evenly distributed bacterial community as temperatures rise. Freshwater management decisions that seek to avoid or mitigate the negative effects of agricultural land use on stream periphyton should be informed by knowledge of the interactive effects of

  9. In a warming climate, just how predictable are temperature extremes at weather and seasonal time scales?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Landman7_2011.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 3538 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Landman7_2011.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 In a warming climate... at UK Met Office N9 members SA Japan UKUSA USA Brazil* SA SASA * IBSA-Ocean In use Near future Far future VCM/UTCM ENSEMBLES Strong anthropogenically forced warming trends have been observed over southern Africa and are projected...

  10. Making sense of global warming: Norwegians appropriating knowledge of anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryghaug, Marianne; Sørensen, Knut Holtan; Naess, Robert

    2011-11-01

    This paper studies how people reason about and make sense of human-made global warming, based on ten focus group interviews with Norwegian citizens. It shows that the domestication of climate science knowledge was shaped through five sense-making devices: news media coverage of changes in nature, particularly the weather, the coverage of presumed experts' disagreement about global warming, critical attitudes towards media, observations of political inaction, and considerations with respect to everyday life. These sense-making devices allowed for ambiguous outcomes, and the paper argues four main outcomes with respect to the domestication processes: the acceptors, the tempered acceptors, the uncertain and the sceptics.

  11. Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellstedt, Paul M; Zahran, Sammy; Vedlitz, Arnold

    2008-02-01

    Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces-informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy-are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.

  12. Tundra soil carbon is vulnerable to rapid microbial decomposition under climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Kai; M. Yuan, Mengting; J. Shi, Zhou; Qin, Yujia; Deng, Ye; Cheng, Lei; Wu, Liyou; He, Zhili; van Nostrand, Joy D.; Bracho, Rosvel; Natali, Susan; Schuur, Edward. A. G.; Luo, Chengwei; Konstantinidis, Konstantinos T.; Wang, Qiong; Cole, James R.; Tiedje, James M.; Luo, Yiqi; Zhou, Jizhong

    2016-06-01

    Microbial decomposition of soil carbon in high-latitude tundra underlain with permafrost is one of the most important, but poorly understood, potential positive feedbacks of greenhouse gas emissions from terrestrial ecosystems into the atmosphere in a warmer world. Using integrated metagenomic technologies, we showed that the microbial functional community structure in the active layer of tundra soil was significantly altered after only 1.5 years of warming, a rapid response demonstrating the high sensitivity of this ecosystem to warming. The abundances of microbial functional genes involved in both aerobic and anaerobic carbon decomposition were also markedly increased by this short-term warming. Consistent with this, ecosystem respiration (Reco) increased up to 38%. In addition, warming enhanced genes involved in nutrient cycling, which very likely contributed to an observed increase (30%) in gross primary productivity (GPP). However, the GPP increase did not offset the extra Reco, resulting in significantly more net carbon loss in warmed plots compared with control plots. Altogether, our results demonstrate the vulnerability of active-layer soil carbon in this permafrost-based tundra ecosystem to climate warming and the importance of microbial communities in mediating such vulnerability.

  13. Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Feng

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Global drylands encompassing hyper-arid, arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid areas cover about 41% of the earth's terrestrial surface and are home to more than a third of the world's population. By analyzing observations for 1948–2008 and climate model simulations for 1948–2100, we show that global drylands have expanded in last sixty years and will continue to expand in the 21st century. By the end of this century, the world's drylands under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario are projected to be 5.8 × 106 km2 (or 10% larger than in the 1961–1990 climatology. The major expansion of arid regions will occur over southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa, and Australia, while major expansions of semiarid regions will occur over the north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America. The global dryland expansions will increase the population affected by water scarcity and land degradations.

  14. Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Feng

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Global drylands encompassing hyper-arid, arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid areas cover about 41 percent of the earth's terrestrial surface and are home to more than a third of the world's population. By analyzing observations for 1948–2008 and climate model simulations for 1948–2100, we show that global drylands have expanded in the last sixty years and will continue to expand in the 21st~century. By the end of this century, the world's drylands (under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario are projected to be 5.8 × 106 km2 (or 10% larger than in the 1961–1990 climatology. The major expansion of arid regions will occur over southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa, and Australia, while major expansions of semiarid regions will occur over the north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America. The global dryland expansions will increase the population affected by water scarcity and land degradations.

  15. Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shestakova, Tatiana A.; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A.; Linares, Juan Carlos; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

    2016-01-01

    Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales. PMID:26729860

  16. Arctic sea ice response to atmospheric forcings with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinlun; Steele, Michael; Schweiger, Axel

    2010-10-01

    Numerical experiments are conducted to project arctic sea ice responses to varying levels of future anthropogenic warming and climate variability over 2010-2050. A summer ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely by the mid-2040s if arctic surface air temperature (SAT) increases 4°C by 2050 and climate variability is similar to the past relatively warm two decades. If such a SAT increase is reduced by one-half or if a future Arctic experiences a range of SAT fluctuation similar to the past five decades, a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean would be unlikely before 2050. If SAT increases 4°C by 2050, summer ice volume decreases to very low levels (10-37% of the 1978-2009 summer mean) as early as 2025 and remains low in the following years, while summer ice extent continues to fluctuate annually. Summer ice volume may be more sensitive to warming while summer ice extent more sensitive to climate variability. The rate of annual mean ice volume decrease relaxes approaching 2050. This is because, while increasing SAT increases summer ice melt, a thinner ice cover increases winter ice growth. A thinner ice cover also results in a reduced ice export, which helps to further slow ice volume loss. Because of enhanced winter ice growth, arctic winter ice extent remains nearly stable and therefore appears to be a less sensitive climate indicator.

  17. Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shestakova, Tatiana A; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A; Linares, Juan Carlos; Resco de Dios, Víctor; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

    2016-01-19

    Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼ 1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales.

  18. The link between convective organization and extreme precipitation in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendergrass, Angeline

    2016-04-01

    The rate of increase of extreme precipitation in response to global warming varies dramatically across simulations of warming with different climate models, particularly over the tropical oceans, for reasons that have yet to be established. Here, we propose one possible mechanism: changing organization of convection with climate. Recently, self-organization of convection has been studied in global radiative-convective equilibrium climate model simulations. We analyze a set of 20 simulations forced by fixed SSTs at 2 degree increments from 287 to 307 K with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). In these simulations, a transition from unorganized to organized convection occurs at just over 300 K. Precipitation extremes increase steadily with warming before and after the transition from unorganized to organized states, but at the transition the change in extreme precipitation is much larger. We develop a metric for convective organization in conjunction with the characteristics of extreme precipitation events (defined as events with precipitation over a percentile threshold of daily rainfall accumulation): the number of events, their area, their lifetime, and their mean rainfall, and use this to explore the connection between extreme precipitation and organization. We also apply this metric to CMIP5 simulations to evaluate whether our mechanism has bearing on the range of tropical ocean extreme precipitation response across this set of comprehensive climate models.

  19. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

    2017-02-07

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  20. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2017-05-09

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  1. Climate impacts on human livelihoods at 1.5° and 2° of warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lissner, Tabea

    2017-04-01

    The measurement of impacts of climate change on socio-economic systems remains challenging and especially multi-dimensional outcome measures remain scarce. Climate impacts can directly affect many dimensions of human livelihoods, which cannot be addressed by monetary assessments alone. Multi-dimensional measures are essential in order to understand the full range of consequences of climate change and to understand the costs that higher levels of warming may have, not only in economic terms, but also in terms of non-market impacts on human livelihood. The AHEAD framework aims at measuring "Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development" in a multi-dimensional framework, allowing to focus on resources and conditions which are a requirement to attain well-being. In this contribution we build on previous implementations of AHEAD and focus on differences in climate impacts at 1.5° and 2° of warming in order to improve our understanding of the societal consequences of these different warming levels.

  2. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

  3. Anthropogenic flank attack on polar bears: Interacting consequences of climate warming and pollutant exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bjørn Munro Jenssen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Polar bears (Ursus maritimus are subjected to several anthropogenic threats, climate warming and exposure to pollutants being two of these. For polar bears, one of the main effects of climate warming is limited access to prey, due to loss of their sea ice habitat. This will result in prolonged fasting periods and emaciation and condition related negative effects on survival and reproduction success. Prolonged fasting will result in increases of the tissue concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs in polar bears, and thus increase the probability for POP levels to exceed threshold levels for effects on health, and thus on reproductive success and survival. There are clear potentials for interactions between impacts of climate warming and impacts of pollutant exposure on polar bears. It is likely that that fasting-induced increases of POPs will add to mortality rates and decrease reproductive success beyond effects caused by loss of habitat alone. However, there is a lack of studies that have addressed this. Thus, there is a need to focus on population effects of POP exposure in polar bears, and to consider such effects in relation to the effects of climate induced habitat loss.

  4. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2017-05-01

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  5. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-02-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  6. Warming-induced increase in aerosol number concentration likely to moderate climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paasonen, Pauli; Asmi, Ari; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kajos, Maija K.; Äijälä, Mikko; Junninen, Heikki; Holst, Thomas; Abbatt, Jonathan P. D.; Arneth, Almut; Birmili, Wolfram; van der Gon, Hugo Denier; Hamed, Amar; Hoffer, András; Laakso, Lauri; Laaksonen, Ari; Richard Leaitch, W.; Plass-Dülmer, Christian; Pryor, Sara C.; Räisänen, Petri; Swietlicki, Erik; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Kulmala, Markku

    2013-06-01

    Atmospheric aerosol particles influence the climate system directly by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei. Apart from black carbon aerosol, aerosols cause a negative radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and substantially mitigate the warming caused by greenhouse gases. In the future, tightening of controls on anthropogenic aerosol and precursor vapour emissions to achieve higher air quality may weaken this beneficial effect. Natural aerosols, too, might affect future warming. Here we analyse long-term observations of concentrations and compositions of aerosol particles and their biogenic precursor vapours in continental mid- and high-latitude environments. We use measurements of particle number size distribution together with boundary layer heights derived from reanalysis data to show that the boundary layer burden of cloud condensation nuclei increases exponentially with temperature. Our results confirm a negative feedback mechanism between the continental biosphere, aerosols and climate: aerosol cooling effects are strengthened by rising biogenic organic vapour emissions in response to warming, which in turn enhance condensation on particles and their growth to the size of cloud condensation nuclei. This natural growth mechanism produces roughly 50% of particles at the size of cloud condensation nuclei across Europe. We conclude that biosphere-atmosphere interactions are crucial for aerosol climate effects and can significantly influence the effects of anthropogenic aerosol emission controls, both on climate and air quality.

  7. The Frustrating Lives of Climate Scientists - 45 Years of Warm, Cold, Wet and Dry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toon, O. B.; Hartwick, V.; Urata, R. A.

    2016-12-01

    Mariner 9 arrived at Mars in November 1971, where it revealed giant volcanoes and dry river valleys some of which originated from rainfall or runoff. Some geologists think there were oceans, tidal waves, craters that filled to their rims and then overflowed or didn't overflow, and river deltas reaching into the ancient seas and lakes. Climate scientists have stumbled through a 45 year-long chain of failed explanations for these geologic data. CO2 in greater abundance than now is likely involved, but not sufficient. Adding CH4 , CO2 clouds, or SO2 have faltered on further study. Three ideas are still being kicked around, two of which are able to make Mars warm, but may have geologic issues. First, is the idea of adding H2 to the CO2, which warms sufficiently in climate models. However, the large quantities needed are a challenge to outgassing models. Second, is impacts, the largest of which would mobilize most of the water in the regolith. Geologists object that the water from impacts would not last long enough to carve rivers. However, no one has explored the concurrent generation of the regolith by these impacts, which would create a loose, easily erodible surface. Are the rivers all in ancient regolith? If some rivers are in bedrock it would be harder to explain by impacts. Finally, impacts may triggered water/cloud greenhouses. Such a climate state would be long lasting, requires only a modest background atmosphere of carbon dioxide, and would fade away when the carbon dioxide dropped below a few hundred mbar. However, not all climate models have been able to produce such water driven greenhouse warming. In this talk I will outline the history of these climate models, point to evidence that might discriminate between them, describe how the water greenhouse models work or don't work, and suggest some new projects that might be done to decide just how warm and wet Mars may have been.

  8. Above- and belowground linkages in Sphagnum peatland: climate warming affects plant-microbial interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jassey, Vincent E J; Chiapusio, Geneviève; Binet, Philippe; Buttler, Alexandre; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Delarue, Frédéric; Bernard, Nadine; Mitchell, Edward A D; Toussaint, Marie-Laure; Francez, André-Jean; Gilbert, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Peatlands contain approximately one third of all soil organic carbon (SOC). Warming can alter above- and belowground linkages that regulate soil organic carbon dynamics and C-balance in peatlands. Here we examine the multiyear impact of in situ experimental warming on the microbial food web, vegetation, and their feedbacks with soil chemistry. We provide evidence of both positive and negative impacts of warming on specific microbial functional groups, leading to destabilization of the microbial food web. We observed a strong reduction (70%) in the biomass of top-predators (testate amoebae) in warmed plots. Such a loss caused a shortening of microbial food chains, which in turn stimulated microbial activity, leading to slight increases in levels of nutrients and labile C in water. We further show that warming altered the regulatory role of Sphagnum-polyphenols on microbial community structure with a potential inhibition of top predators. In addition, warming caused a decrease in Sphagnum cover and an increase in vascular plant cover. Using structural equation modelling, we show that changes in the microbial food web affected the relationships between plants, soil water chemistry, and microbial communities. These results suggest that warming will destabilize C and nutrient recycling of peatlands via changes in above- and belowground linkages, and therefore, the microbial food web associated with mosses will feedback positively to global warming by destabilizing the carbon cycle. This study confirms that microbial food webs thus constitute a key element in the functioning of peatland ecosystems. Their study can help understand how mosses, as ecosystem engineers, tightly regulate biogeochemical cycling and climate feedback in peatlands. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  9. A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  10. New proofs of the recent climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau as a result of the increasing greenhouse gases emissions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DUAN Anmin; WU Guoxiong; ZHANG Qiong; LIU Yimin

    2006-01-01

    A striking climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau during the last decades has been revealed by many studies, but evidence linking it to human activity is insufficient. By using historical observations, here we show that the in situ climate warming is accompanied by a distinct decreasing trend of the diurnal range of surface air temperature. The ERA40 reanalysis further indicates that there seems to be a coherent warming trend near the tropopause but a cooling trend in the lower stratosphere. Moreover, all these features can be reproduced in two coupled climate models forced by observed CO2 concentration of the 20th century but cannot be produced by the fixed external conditions before the industrial revolution. These suggest that the recent climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau primarily results from the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions, and impacts of the increased greenhouse gases emissions upon the climate change in the plateau are probably more serious than the rest of the world.

  11. The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swindles, Graeme T.; Morris, Paul J.; Mullan, Donal

    2015-01-01

    Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon...... stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological...... approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed...

  12. Climate. Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xianyao; Tung, Ka-Kit

    2014-08-22

    A vacillating global heat sink at intermediate ocean depths is associated with different climate regimes of surface warming under anthropogenic forcing: The latter part of the 20th century saw rapid global warming as more heat stayed near the surface. In the 21st century, surface warming slowed as more heat moved into deeper oceans. In situ and reanalyzed data are used to trace the pathways of ocean heat uptake. In addition to the shallow La Niña-like patterns in the Pacific that were the previous focus, we found that the slowdown is mainly caused by heat transported to deeper layers in the Atlantic and the Southern oceans, initiated by a recurrent salinity anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic. Cooling periods associated with the latter deeper heat-sequestration mechanism historically lasted 20 to 35 years.

  13. The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swindles, Graeme T.; Morris, Paul J.; Mullan, Donal;

    2015-01-01

    Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon...... stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological...... approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed...

  14. Climate warming and its impact on natural regional boundaries in China in the 1980s

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHA; Wanying; (沙万英); SHAO; Xuemei; (邵雪梅); HUANG; Mei; (黄玫)

    2002-01-01

    The global climate warming accelerated in the 1980s has become a focus in the world. Based on the month by month and year by year temperature data from 160 representative stations throughout the country during 1951-1999, this paper analyses annual and four seasons' temperature variations of China since the 1980s. It was found out that the non-equalibrium response with relative great regional and seasonal differences is represented in the country's climate warming. In regional changes a trend of "warm in the north and cold in the south" occurs whereas in seasonal changes, the characters of "warm in winter and cool in summer" present. Significant verification of the temperature variations conducted in terms of mathematical statistics reveals that a confidence level of over 95% has been basically reached in areas north of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, according to data of diurnal mean temperature steadily passing through accumulated temperature ≥10℃ from 335 stations since 1951 or since the founding of the stations in the early 1950s to 1999, comparative analysis of the data of the last 19 years with that of the first 30 years was conducted and the accumulated temperature ≥10℃ and the variation range of the persistent number of days ≥10℃ were obtained. It was concluded that a general northward shift of central subtropics, north subtropics, warm temperate zone, mesothermal zone and frigid temperate zone of eastern China was observed. The northward shift of north subtropics and warm temperate zone was obvious but changes of south subtropics and marginal tropics were insignificant. In western China, in addition to southwestern Yunnan, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western Inner Mongolia where the temperature zones of each either shifted northward or trended to move upward, not much changes were found in other areas or they shifted southward slightly and declined.

  15. The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swindles, Graeme T.; Morris, Paul J.

    2016-04-01

    High-latitude permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, there is much concern that climate warming and subsequent permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Unfortunately, field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to rapid warming in the twentieth century. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in Subarctic Sweden in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, and thus peatland ecosystem services are resumed, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms. We outline our plans to test the model published in Swindles et al. (2015) using the same methodological approach in other high-latitude locations, including zones of continuous and discontinuous permafrost. Reference: Swindles, G.T., Morris, P.J., Mullan, D., Watson, E.J., Turner, T.E., Roland, T., Amesbury, M.J., Kokfelt, U., Schoning, K., Pratte, S., Gallego-Sala, A., Charman, D.J., Sanderson, N., Garneau, M., Carrivick, J.L., Woulds, C

  16. Extension of the PMV-model. For non-airconditioned buildings in warm climates; Uitbreiding van het PMV-model. Voor niet-geconditioneerde gebouwen in warme klimaten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fanger, O. [International Centre for Indoor Environment, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark)

    2007-01-15

    The PMV (predicted mean vote) model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents. [Dutch] Voorspellingen met het PMV-model komen goed overeen met hoge kwaliteit veldstudies in geconditioneerde gebouwen in koude, milde en warme klimaten, voor zowel de winter als de zomersituatie. In niet-geconditioneerde gebouwen in warme klimaten, kunnen bewoners warmte positiever beoordelen dan volgens de PMV voorstelling. De belangrijkste reden hiervoor is een laag verwachtingspatroon, maar een te hoog geschat metabolisme kan het verschil mede verklaren. Dit artikel beschrijft een uitbreiding van het PMV-model met een verwachtingsfactor voor niet-geconditioneerde gebouwen in warme klimaten. Voorstellingen met het uitgebreide PMV-model komen goed overeen met hoge kwaliteit veldstudies in niet-geconditioneerde gebouwen verspreid over drie continenten.

  17. Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2008-10-01

    Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

  18. Climate change reduces warming potential of nitrous oxide by an enhanced Brewer-Dobson circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kracher, Daniela; Reick, Christian H.; Manzini, Elisa; Schultz, Martin G.; Stein, Olaf

    2016-06-01

    The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), which is an important driver of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange, is expected to accelerate with climate change. One particular consequence of this acceleration is the enhanced transport of nitrous oxide (N2O) from its sources at the Earth's surface toward its main sink region in the stratosphere, thus inducing a reduction in its lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas and the most relevant currently emitted ozone-depleting substance. Here we examine the implications of a reduced N2O lifetime in the context of climate change. We find a decrease in its global warming potential (GWP) and, due to a decline in the atmospheric N2O burden, also a reduction in its total radiative forcing. From the idealized transient global warming simulation we can identify linear regressions for N2O sink, lifetime, and GWP with temperature rise. Our findings are thus not restricted to a particular scenario.

  19. Assessment of thermal change in cold avalanching glaciers in relation to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, A.; Vincent, C.; Gagliardini, O.; Krug, J.; Berthier, E.

    2015-08-01

    High-elevation glaciers covered by cold firn are undergoing substantial warming in response to ongoing climate change. This warming is affecting the ice/rock interface temperature, the primary driver of avalanching glacier instability on steep slopes. Prediction of future potential instability therefore requires appropriate modeling of the thermal evolution of these glaciers. Application of a state-of-the-art model to a glacier in the French Alps (Taconnaz) has provided the first evaluation of the temperature evolution of a cold hanging glacier through this century. Our observations and three-dimensional modeling of the glacier response (velocity, thickness, temperature, density, and water content) to climate change indicate that Taconnaz glacier will become temperate and potentially unstable over a large area by the end of the 21st century. The risk induced by this glacier hazard is high for the populated region below and makes observation and modeling of such glaciers a priority.

  20. Uncertainties in the attribution of greenhouse gas warming and implications for climate prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Jones, Gareth S; Mitchell, John F B

    2016-01-01

    Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning of the anthropogenic influence to individual factors, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, is much less robust. Differences in how forcing factors are applied, in their radiative influence and in models' climate sensitivities, substantially influence the response patterns. We find standard optimal detection methodologies cannot fully reconcile this response diversity. By selecting a set of experiments to enable the diagnosing of greenhouse gases and the combined influence of other anthropogenic and natural factors, we find robust detections of well mixed greenhouse gases across a large ensemble of models. Of the observed warming over the 20th century of 0.65K/century we find, using a multi model mean not incorporating pattern uncertainty, a well mixed greenhouse gas warm...

  1. Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.

    1980-01-01

    Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. This feedback mechanism has been explored with the use of a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by the calculation of the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane.

  2. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

    2016-02-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

  3. The climatic warming up (the greenhouse effect); Le rechauffement climatique (l'effet de serre)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jancovici, J.M.; Jouzel, J. [CEA Saclay, Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Lorius, C. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Lab. de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, 38 - Grenoble (France)] [and others

    2000-05-01

    Facing the environmental and biological impacts of the climatic warming up, scientists and economists organized a debate on the subject. After a theoretical presentation of the greenhouse effect and the greenhouse gases, the climatic changes are discussed and simulation of the effects are presented. The today effects and tomorrow impacts on the agriculture and the public health are also presented. A synthesis is proposed to discuss the contribution of the energy policy and of the technological progress in measures of greenhouse effect control. (A.L.B.)

  4. The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Hansen, J.; Le Treut, H.

    1990-01-01

    The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

  5. Climate Warming Can Increase Soil Carbon Fluxes Without Decreasing Soil Carbon Stocks in Boreal Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegler, S. E.; Benner, R. H.; Billings, S. A.; Edwards, K. A.; Philben, M. J.; Zhu, X.; Laganiere, J.

    2016-12-01

    Ecosystem C fluxes respond positively to climate warming, however, the net impact of changing C fluxes on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks over decadal scales remains unclear. Manipulative studies and global-scale observations have informed much of the existing knowledge of SOC responses to climate, providing insights on relatively short (e.g. days to years) and long (centuries to millennia) time scales, respectively. Natural climate gradient studies capture integrated ecosystem responses to climate on decadal time scales. Here we report the soil C reservoirs, fluxes into and out of those reservoirs, and the chemical composition of inputs and soil organic matter pools along a mesic boreal forest climate transect. The sites studied consist of similar forest composition, successional stage, and soil moisture but differ by 5.2°C mean annual temperature. Carbon fluxes through these boreal forest soils were greatest in the lowest latitude regions and indicate that enhanced C inputs can offset soil C losses with warming in these forests. Respiration rates increased by 55% and the flux of dissolved organic carbon from the organic to mineral soil horizons tripled across this climate gradient. The 2-fold increase in litterfall inputs to these soils coincided with a significant increase in the organic horizon C stock with warming, however, no significant difference in the surface mineral soil C stocks was observed. The younger mean age of the mineral soil C ( 70 versus 330 YBP) provided further evidence for the greater turnover of SOC in the warmer climate soils. In spite of these differences in mean radiocarbon age, mineral SOC exhibited chemical characteristics of highly decomposed material across all regions. In contrast with depth trends in soil OM diagenetic indices, diagenetic shifts with latitude were limited to increases in C:N and alkyl to O-alkyl ratios in the overlying organic horizons in the warmer relative to the colder regions. These data indicate that the

  6. Climate warming causes life-history evolution in a model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Rebecca E.; Jørgensen, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Climate change influences the marine environment, with ocean warming being the foremost driving factor governing changes in the physiology and ecology of fish. At the individual level, increasing temperature influences bioenergetics and numerous physiological and life-history processes, which have consequences for the population level and beyond. We provide a state-dependent energy allocation model that predicts temperature-induced adaptations for life histories and behaviour for the North-East Arctic stock (NEA) of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in response to climate warming. The key constraint is temperature-dependent respiratory physiology, and the model includes a number of trade-offs that reflect key physiological and ecological processes. Dynamic programming is used to find an evolutionarily optimal strategy of foraging and energy allocation that maximizes expected lifetime reproductive output given constraints from physiology and ecology. The optimal strategy is then simulated in a population, where survival, foraging behaviour, growth, maturation and reproduction emerge. Using current forcing, the model reproduces patterns of growth, size-at-age, maturation, gonad production and natural mortality for NEA cod. The predicted climate responses are positive for this stock; under a 2°C warming, the model predicted increased growth rates and a larger asymptotic size. Maturation age was unaffected, but gonad weight was predicted to more than double. Predictions for a wider range of temperatures, from 2 to 7°C, show that temperature responses were gradual; fish were predicted to grow faster and increase reproductive investment at higher temperatures. An emergent pattern of higher risk acceptance and increased foraging behaviour was also predicted. Our results provide important insight into the effects of climate warming on NEA cod by revealing the underlying mechanisms and drivers of change. We show how temperature-induced adaptations of behaviour and several life

  7. The local species richness of Dragonflies in mountain waterbodies: an indicator of climate warming?

    OpenAIRE

    Beat Oertli

    2010-01-01

    With climate warming, many Odonata species are extending their geographical area. In Switzerland, as in many parts of the world, this phenomenon may lead to a regional increase in species richness. The local richness (the richness of individual waterbodies) is also expected to increase, particularly in the alpine or subalpine areas where the waterbodies are particularly species–poor. Based on the species richness recorded in 109 waterbodies scattered all across Switzerland, a model is p...

  8. Pimping climate change: Richard Branson, global warming, and the performance of green capitalism

    OpenAIRE

    Scott Prudham

    2009-01-01

    On 21 September 2006 UK über-entrepreneur and Virgin Group Chairman Richard Branson pledged approximately £1.6 billion, the equivalent of all the profits from Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Trains for the next ten years, to fighting climate change. Since then, Branson has restated his commitment to action on global warming, including investment in technologies for sequestering carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In this paper, I critically examine and engage with Branson’s announcements as a spec...

  9. Warming-induced increase in aerosol number concentration likely to moderate climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Paasonen, Pauli; Asmi, Ari; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kajos, Maija K.; Äijälä, Mikko

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosol particles influence the climate system directly by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei1, 2, 3, 4. Apart from black carbon aerosol, aerosols cause a negative radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and substantially mitigate the warming caused by greenhouse gases1. In the future, tightening of controls on anthropogenic aerosol and precursor vapour emissions to achieve higher air quality may weaken this benef...

  10. A study on environmental aridity over northern and southern to Qinling Mountains under climate warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Based on the data up to 1999 from hydroclimatological departments, this paper analyzes the climatic divide implications of the Qinling Mountains in regional response to the process of climate warming, due to which the grades of dryness/wetness (GDW) in 100 years show that the northern region has entered a drought period, while the southern is a humid period. In a course of ten years, the D-value of annual average air temperature over southern Shaanxi (the Hanjiang Valley) and the Central Shaanxi Plain (the Guanzhong Plain) has narrowed, i.e., the former with a slight change and the latter with rapid increase in temperature. Both regions were arid with the decrease in precipitation D-value, namely the plain became warmer while the south was drier. The Qinling Mountains play a pronounced role in the climatic divide. The runoff coefficient (RC) of the Weihe River decreases synchronously with that of the Hanjiang due to climate warming. The RC of Weihe dropped from 0.2 in the 1950s to less than 0.1 in the 1990s. The Weihe Valley (the Guanzhong Plain) is practically an arid area due to shortage of water. The successive 0.5, 1.0℃ temperature anomaly over China marks, perhaps, the important transition period in which the environment becomes more vulnerable than before.The study shows the obvious trend of environmental aridity, which is of help to the understanding of regional response to global climate change.

  11. Fungal decomposition of terrestrial organic matter accelerated Early Jurassic climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieńkowski, Grzegorz; Hodbod, Marta; Ullmann, Clemens V.

    2016-08-01

    Soils – constituting the largest terrestrial carbon pool - are vulnerable to climatic warming. Currently existing uncertainties regarding carbon fluxes within terrestrial systems can be addressed by studies of past carbon cycle dynamics and related climate change recorded in sedimentary successions. Here we show an example from the Early Jurassic (early Toarcian, c. 183 mya) marginal-marine strata from Poland, tracking the hinterland response to climatic changes through a super-greenhouse event. In contrast to anoxia-related enhanced carbon storage in coeval open marine environments, Total Organic Carbon (TOC) concentrations in the Polish successions are substantially reduced during this event. Increasing temperature favoured fungal-mediated decomposition of plant litter – specifically of normally resistant woody tissues. The associated injection of oxidized organic matter into the atmosphere corresponds to abrupt changes in standing vegetation and may have contributed significantly to the amplified greenhouse climate on Earth. The characteristic Toarcian signature of multiple warm pulses coinciding with rapidly decreasing carbon isotope ratios may in part be the result of a radical reduction of the terrestrial carbon pool as a response to climate change.

  12. Vulnerability to climate warming of Liolaemus pictus (Squamata, Liolaemidae), a lizard from the cold temperate climate in Patagonia, Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubisch, Erika Leticia; Fernández, Jimena Beatriz; Ibargüengoytía, Nora Ruth

    2016-02-01

    The vulnerability of populations and species to global warming depends not only on the environmental temperatures, but also on the behavioral and physiological abilities to respond to these changes. In this sense, the knowledge of an organism's sensitivity to temperature variation is essential to predict potential responses to climate warming. In particular, it is interesting to know how close species are to their thermal limits in nature and whether physiological plasticity is a potential short-term response to warming climates. We exposed Liolaemus pictus lizards, from northern Patagonia, to either 21 or 31 °C for 30 days to compare the effects of these treatments on thermal sensitivity in 1 and 0.2 m runs, preferred body temperature (T pref), panting threshold (T pant), and critical minimum temperature (CTMin). Furthermore, we measured the availability of thermal microenvironments (operative temperatures; T e) to measure how close L. pictus is, in nature, to its optimal locomotor performance (T o) and thermal limits. L. pictus showed limited physiological plasticity, since the acclimation temperature (21 and 31 °C) did not affect the locomotor performance nor did it affect T pref, the T pant, or the CTMin. The mean T e was close to T o and was 17 °C lower than the CTMax. The results suggest that L. pictus, in a climate change scenario, could be vulnerable to the predicted temperature increment, as this species currently lives in an environment with temperatures close to their highest locomotor temperature threshold, and because they showed limited acclimation capacity to adjust to new thermal conditions by physiological plasticity. Nevertheless, L. pictus can run at 80 % or faster of its maximum speed across a wide range of temperatures near T o, an ability which would attenuate the impact of global warming.

  13. 4. 1. Response of the North American corn belt to climatic warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blasing, T.J.; Solomon, A.M.

    1984-01-01

    The climate of the North American corn belt was characterized as part of an effort to estimate the effects of climatic change on that agricultural region. Heat and moisture characteristics of the current corn belt were first identified. Locations of those characteristics were then mapped, based on a climate simulated to result from doubling the amount of atmospheric CO/sub 2/. Such projections of corn-belt location were made both with and without allowance for earlier planting dates under a warmer climate. Because the direct effects of CO/sub 2/ on plants, improvements in farm technology, and plant breeding are not considered, the resulting projections represent an extreme or worst case. Results indicate that even for such a worst case, climatic conditions favoring corn production would not extend very far into Canada. Greatest translocations are projected for the western, or driest, part of the corn belt where other crops such as winter wheat could replace corn. However, this kind of exercise clearly shows that the use of climate-model output requires several highly questionable assumptions about changes in the timing and regional distribution of precipitation accompanying a climatic warming. Increased use of climatic data and improved specification of CO/sub 2/-induced increases in water-use efficiency of corn are suggested for more credible projections of corn belt responses to increasing CO/sub 2/. 12 references, 4 figures.

  14. Water yield and sediment export in small, partially glaciated Alpine watersheds in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micheletti, Natan; Lane, Stuart N.

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to modify the hydrological and geomorphological dynamics of mountain watersheds significantly, so impacting on downstream water yield and sediment supply. However, such watersheds are often poorly instrumented, making it difficult to link recent and rapid climate change to landscape response. Here we combine unique records of river flow and sediment export, with historical archival imagery to test the hypothesis that climate warming has substantially increased both water yield and sediment export from small Alpine watersheds (<3 km2) characterized by small (<0.5 km2 surface) glaciers. To examine ice and landform response to climate change, we apply archival digital photogrammetry to historical aerial imagery available from 1967 to present. We use the resulting data on ice loss, in combination with reliable records of stream flow from hydroelectric power intakes and climate data to approximate a water budget and to determine the evolution of different contributions to river flow. We use the stream flow records to estimate volumetric sediment transport capacity and compare this with the volumes of sand and gravel exported from the watersheds, quantified from records of intake flushing. The data show clearly that climate forcing since the early 1980s has been accompanied by a net increase in both water yield and sediment transport capacity, and we attribute these as signals of reduced snow accumulation and glacier recession. However, sediment export has not responded in the same way and we attribute this to limits on sediment delivery to streams because of poor rockwall-hillslope-channel connectivity. However, we do find that extreme climate conditions can be seen in sediment export data suggesting that these, rather than mean climate warming, may dominate watershed response.

  15. Is climate warming more consequential towards poles? The phenology of Lepidoptera in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valtonen, Anu; Leinonen, Reima; Pöyry, Juha; Roininen, Heikki; Tuomela, Jukka; Ayres, Matthew P

    2014-01-01

    The magnitude and direction of phenological shifts from climate warming could be predictably variable across the planet depending upon the nature of physiological controls on phenology, the thermal sensitivity of the developmental processes and global patterns in the climate warming. We tested this with respect to the flight phenology of adult nocturnal moths (3.33 million captures of 334 species) that were sampled at sites in southern and northern Finland during 1993-2012 (with years 2005-2012 treated as an independent model validation data set). We compared eight competing models of physiological controls on flight phenology to each species and found strong support for thermal controls of phenology in 66% of the species generations. Among species with strong thermal control of phenology in both the south and north, the average development rate was higher in northern vs. southern populations at 10 °C, but about the same at 15 and 20 °C. With a 3 °C increase in temperature (approximating A2 scenario of IPPC for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999) these species were predicted to advance their phenology on average by 17 (SE ± 0.3) days in the south vs. 13 (±0.4) days in the north. The higher development rates at low temperatures of poleward populations makes them less sensitive to climate warming, which opposes the tendency for stronger phenological advances in the north from greater increases in temperature.

  16. Biophysical feedbacks between the Pleistocene megafauna extinction and climate: The first human-induced global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doughty, Christopher E.; Wolf, Adam; Field, Christopher B.

    2010-08-01

    A large increase in Betula during a narrow 1000 year window, ˜13,800 years before present (YBP) in Alaska and Yukon corresponded in time with the extinction of mammoths and the arrival of humans. Pollen data indicate the increase in Betula during this time was widespread across Siberia and Beringia. We hypothesize that Betula increased due to a combination of a warming climate and reduced herbivory following the extinction of the Pleistocene mega herbivores. The rapid increase in Betula modified land surface albedo which climate-model simulations indicate would cause an average net warming of ˜0.021°C per percent increase in high latitude (53-73°N) Betula cover. We hypothesize that the extinction of mammoths increased Betula cover, which would have warmed Siberia and Beringia by on average 0.2°C, but regionally by up to 1°C. If humans were partially responsible for the extinction of the mammoths, then human influences on global climate predate the origin of agriculture.

  17. 500-year climate cycles stacking of recent centennial warming documented in an East Asian pollen record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Deke; Lu, Houyuan; Chu, Guoqiang; Wu, Naiqin; Shen, Caiming; Wang, Can; Mao, Limi

    2014-01-01

    Here we presented a high-resolution 5350-year pollen record from a maar annually laminated lake in East Asia (EA). Pollen record reflected the dynamics of vertical vegetation zones and temperature change. Spectral analysis on pollen percentages/concentrations of Pinus and Quercus, and a temperature proxy, revealed ~500-year quasi-periodic cold-warm fluctuations during the past 5350 years. This ~500-year cyclic climate change occurred in EA during the mid-late Holocene and even the last 150 years dominated by anthropogenic forcing. It was almost in phase with a ~500-year periodic change in solar activity and Greenland temperature change, suggesting that ~500-year small variations in solar output played a prominent role in the mid-late Holocene climate dynamics in EA, linked to high latitude climate system. Its last warm phase might terminate in the next several decades to enter another ~250-year cool phase, and thus this future centennial cyclic temperature minimum could partially slow down man-made global warming. PMID:24402348

  18. Inconsistent Range Shifts within Species Highlight Idiosyncratic Responses to Climate Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson-Reinemer, Daniel K; Rahel, Frank J

    2015-01-01

    Climate in part determines species' distributions, and species' distributions are shifting in response to climate change. Strong correlations between the magnitude of temperature changes and the extent of range shifts point to warming temperatures as the single most influential factor causing shifts in species' distributions species. However, other abiotic and biotic factors may alter or even reverse these patterns. The importance of temperature relative to these other factors can be evaluated by examining range shifts of the same species in different geographic areas. When the same species experience warming in different geographic areas, the extent to which they show range shifts that are similar in direction and magnitude is a measure of temperature's importance. We analyzed published studies to identify species that have documented range shifts in separate areas. For 273 species of plants, birds, mammals, and marine invertebrates with range shifts measured in multiple geographic areas, 42-50% show inconsistency in the direction of their range shifts, despite experiencing similar warming trends. Inconsistency of within-species range shifts highlights how biotic interactions and local, non-thermal abiotic conditions may often supersede the direct physiological effects of temperature. Assemblages show consistent responses to climate change, but this predictability does not appear to extend to species considered individually.

  19. Inconsistent Range Shifts within Species Highlight Idiosyncratic Responses to Climate Warming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel K Gibson-Reinemer

    Full Text Available Climate in part determines species' distributions, and species' distributions are shifting in response to climate change. Strong correlations between the magnitude of temperature changes and the extent of range shifts point to warming temperatures as the single most influential factor causing shifts in species' distributions species. However, other abiotic and biotic factors may alter or even reverse these patterns. The importance of temperature relative to these other factors can be evaluated by examining range shifts of the same species in different geographic areas. When the same species experience warming in different geographic areas, the extent to which they show range shifts that are similar in direction and magnitude is a measure of temperature's importance. We analyzed published studies to identify species that have documented range shifts in separate areas. For 273 species of plants, birds, mammals, and marine invertebrates with range shifts measured in multiple geographic areas, 42-50% show inconsistency in the direction of their range shifts, despite experiencing similar warming trends. Inconsistency of within-species range shifts highlights how biotic interactions and local, non-thermal abiotic conditions may often supersede the direct physiological effects of temperature. Assemblages show consistent responses to climate change, but this predictability does not appear to extend to species considered individually.

  20. Inconsistent Range Shifts within Species Highlight Idiosyncratic Responses to Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson-Reinemer, Daniel K.; Rahel, Frank J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate in part determines species’ distributions, and species’ distributions are shifting in response to climate change. Strong correlations between the magnitude of temperature changes and the extent of range shifts point to warming temperatures as the single most influential factor causing shifts in species’ distributions species. However, other abiotic and biotic factors may alter or even reverse these patterns. The importance of temperature relative to these other factors can be evaluated by examining range shifts of the same species in different geographic areas. When the same species experience warming in different geographic areas, the extent to which they show range shifts that are similar in direction and magnitude is a measure of temperature’s importance. We analyzed published studies to identify species that have documented range shifts in separate areas. For 273 species of plants, birds, mammals, and marine invertebrates with range shifts measured in multiple geographic areas, 42-50% show inconsistency in the direction of their range shifts, despite experiencing similar warming trends. Inconsistency of within-species range shifts highlights how biotic interactions and local, non-thermal abiotic conditions may often supersede the direct physiological effects of temperature. Assemblages show consistent responses to climate change, but this predictability does not appear to extend to species considered individually. PMID:26162013

  1. Global and regional cooling in a warming climate from CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Drange, Helge

    2015-04-01

    Instrumental temperature records show that the global climate may experience decadal-scale (hiatus) periods without warming despite an indisputable long-term warming trend. A large range of factors have been proposed to explain these non-warming decades, like volcanic cooling, reduced solar energy input, low stratospheric water vapor content, elevated tropospheric aerosols, internal variability of the climate system, or a combination thereof. We have analysed 17 global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), identifying the likelihood and duration of periods without warming in the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, together with the preindustrial control and historical simulations. We find that non-warming periods, when the effect of volcanic eruptions and variations in the solar cycle are neglected, may last for up to 10, 15 and 30 years for RCP8.5, RCP6.0 and RCP 4.5, respectively. Regionally, the likelihood of a decadal-scale hiatus periods decrease first in the tropical Atlantic, Indian Ocean and western Pacific with increasing global temperatures in the RCP scenarios. The North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean are the regions with largest variability relative to the regional warming signal. As a response to the global temperature increase, the radiative imbalance at top of the atmosphere increases and the global oceans warm. This holds for both the upper and the deep ocean in all scenarios. In the CMIP5 simulations, anomalous uptake and storage of ocean heat are the main factors explaining the decadal-scale surface temperature hiatus periods. The tropical East Pacific is a key region for these variations, acting in tandem with basin-scale anomalies in the sea level pressure. On sub-decadal time scales, ocean storage of heat is largest and comparable in magnitude in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, followed by the Atlantic Ocean. We find no relation

  2. How much would five trillion tonnes of carbon warm the climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokarska, Katarzyna Kasia; Gillett, Nathan P.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Arora, Vivek K.

    2016-04-01

    While estimates of fossil fuel reserves and resources are very uncertain, and the amount which could ultimately be burnt under a business as usual scenario would depend on prevailing economic and technological conditions, an amount of five trillion tonnes of carbon (5 EgC), corresponding to the lower end of the range of estimates of the total fossil fuel resource, is often cited as an estimate of total cumulative emissions in the absence of mitigation actions. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report indicates that an approximately linear relationship between warming and cumulative carbon emissions holds only up to around 2 EgC emissions. It is typically assumed that at higher cumulative emissions the warming would tend to be less than that predicted by such a linear relationship, with the radiative saturation effect dominating the effects of positive carbon-climate feedbacks at high emissions, as predicted by simple carbon-climate models. We analyze simulations from four state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and seven Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), driven by the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Extension scenario (RCP 8.5 Ext), which represents a very high emission scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in absence of climate mitigation policies. Our results demonstrate that while terrestrial and ocean carbon storage varies between the models, the CO2-induced warming continues to increase approximately linearly with cumulative carbon emissions even for higher levels of cumulative emissions, in all four ESMs. Five of the seven EMICs considered simulate a similarly linear response, while two exhibit less warming at higher cumulative emissions for reasons we discuss. The ESMs simulate global mean warming of 6.6-11.0°C, mean Arctic warming of 15.3-19.7°C, and mean regional precipitation increases and decreases by more than a factor of four, in response to 5Eg

  3. Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisaveta P. Petkova

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

  4. Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Bader, Daniel A.; Anderson, G. Brooke; Horton, Radley M.; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2014-01-01

    Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience. PMID:25365060

  5. Tree growth response of Fokienia hodginsii to recent climate warming and drought in southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jiajia; Gou, Xiaohua; Deng, Yang; Zhang, Ruibo; Liu, Wenhuo; Zhang, Fen; Lu, Ming; Chen, Yao; Zheng, Wuji

    2017-09-01

    To date, few attempts have been made to assess the influence of climate change on forest ecosystems and on the relationship between tree growth and climate in humid areas of low latitudes. In this paper, we studied the response of tree growth and forest ecosystem to climate change by using Fokienia hodginsii tree-ring cores from the northern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, southwest of China. Tree growth correlates the highest (r = -0.64, p changing with time as revealed by a moving correlation analysis. Tree growth is significantly (p changed under different climate conditions. The meteorological data suggested that from 1961 to 1987 it was cold and wet in the study area and radial growth is limited by winter and spring temperatures. This restriction is weaker if the climate is appropriate in general. However, from 1988 to 2014, the combined effects of recent warming and decreasing precipitation have led to an increasing response of tree-ring width to drought. In addition, a large proportion of mature F. hodginsii mortality occurred from 2007 to 2013, which corresponds with a drastic reduction of radial growth (narrowest in recent 100 years). The recent drought, induced by decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, may have passed the threshold which F. hodginsii could tolerate, causing tree growth reduction, tree growth-climate relationship change, as well as catastrophic tree mortality. All these changes may lead to further responses of the local ecosystem to climate change which should be highly regarded.

  6. Does Climate Literacy Matter? A Case Study of U.S. Students' Level of Concern about Anthropogenic Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedford, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Educators seeking to address global warming in their classrooms face numerous challenges, including the question of whether student opinions about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) can change in response to increased knowledge about the climate system. This article analyzes survey responses from 458 students at a primarily undergraduate…

  7. Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.; Henley, Benjamin J.

    2017-06-01

    To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012-2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming.

  8. Change in abundance of pacific brant wintering in alaska: evidence of a climate warming effect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, D.H.; Dau, C.P.; Lee, T.; Sedinger, J.S.; Anderson, B.A.; Hines, J.E.

    2009-01-01

    Winter distribution of Pacific Flyway brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) has shifted northward from lowtemperate areas to sub-Arctic areas over the last 42 years. We assessed the winter abundance and distribution of brant in Alaska to evaluate whether climate warming may be contributing to positive trends in the most northern of the wintering populations. Mean surface air temperatures during winter at the end of the Alaska Peninsula increased about 1??C between 1963 and 2004, resulting in a 23% reduction in freezing degree days and a 34% decline in the number of days when ice cover prevents birds from accessing food resources. Trends in the wintering population fluctuated with states of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, increasing during positive (warm) phases and decreasing during negative (cold) phases, and this correlation provides support for the hypothesis that growth in the wintering population of brant in Alaska is linked to climate warming. The size of the wintering population was negatively correlated with the number of days of strong northwesterly winds in November, which suggests that the occurrence of tailwinds favorable for migration before the onset of winter was a key factor in whether brant migrated from Alaska or remained there during winter. Winter distribution of brant on the Alaska Peninsula was highly variable and influenced by ice cover, particularly at the heavily used Izembek Lagoon. Observations of previously marked brant indicated that the Alaska wintering population was composed primarily of birds originating from Arctic breeding colonies that appear to be growing. Numbers of brant in Alaska during winter will likely increase as temperatures rise and ice cover decreases at high latitudes in response to climate warming. ?? The Arctic Institute of North America.

  9. Shallowness of tropical low clouds as a predictor of climate models' response to warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio; Tan, Zhihong; Bony, Sandrine; Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex

    2016-07-01

    How tropical low clouds change with climate remains the dominant source of uncertainty in global warming projections. An analysis of an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models reveals that a significant part of the spread in the models' climate sensitivity can be accounted by differences in the climatological shallowness of tropical low clouds in weak-subsidence regimes: models with shallower low clouds in weak-subsidence regimes tend to have a higher climate sensitivity than models with deeper low clouds. The dynamical mechanisms responsible for the model differences are analyzed. Competing effects of parameterized boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection are found to be essential. Boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection are typically represented by distinct parameterization schemes in current models—parameterization schemes that often produce opposing effects on low clouds. Convective drying of the boundary layer tends to deepen low clouds and reduce the cloud fraction at the lowest levels; turbulent moistening tends to make low clouds more shallow but affects the low-cloud fraction less. The relative importance different models assign to these opposing mechanisms contributes to the spread of the climatological shallowness of low clouds and thus to the spread of low-cloud changes under global warming.

  10. Synergistic roles of climate warming and human occupation in Patagonian megafaunal extinctions during the Last Deglaciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalf, Jessica L; Turney, Chris; Barnett, Ross; Martin, Fabiana; Bray, Sarah C; Vilstrup, Julia T; Orlando, Ludovic; Salas-Gismondi, Rodolfo; Loponte, Daniel; Medina, Matías; De Nigris, Mariana; Civalero, Teresa; Fernández, Pablo Marcelo; Gasco, Alejandra; Duran, Victor; Seymour, Kevin L; Otaola, Clara; Gil, Adolfo; Paunero, Rafael; Prevosti, Francisco J; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Wheeler, Jane C; Borrero, Luis; Austin, Jeremy J; Cooper, Alan

    2016-06-01

    The causes of Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions (60,000 to 11,650 years ago, hereafter 60 to 11.65 ka) remain contentious, with major phases coinciding with both human arrival and climate change around the world. The Americas provide a unique opportunity to disentangle these factors as human colonization took place over a narrow time frame (~15 to 14.6 ka) but during contrasting temperature trends across each continent. Unfortunately, limited data sets in South America have so far precluded detailed comparison. We analyze genetic and radiocarbon data from 89 and 71 Patagonian megafaunal bones, respectively, more than doubling the high-quality Pleistocene megafaunal radiocarbon data sets from the region. We identify a narrow megafaunal extinction phase 12,280 ± 110 years ago, some 1 to 3 thousand years after initial human presence in the area. Although humans arrived immediately prior to a cold phase, the Antarctic Cold Reversal stadial, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until the stadial finished and the subsequent warming phase commenced some 1 to 3 thousand years later. The increased resolution provided by the Patagonian material reveals that the sequence of climate and extinction events in North and South America were temporally inverted, but in both cases, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until human presence and climate warming coincided. Overall, metapopulation processes involving subpopulation connectivity on a continental scale appear to have been critical for megafaunal species survival of both climate change and human impacts.

  11. Prolonged California aridity linked to climate warming and Pacific sea surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Glen M.; Moser, Katrina A.; Bloom, Amy M.; Potito, Aaron P.; Porinchu, David F.; Holmquist, James R.; Hughes, Julia; Kremenetski, Konstantine V.

    2016-09-01

    California has experienced a dry 21st century capped by severe drought from 2012 through 2015 prompting questions about hydroclimatic sensitivity to anthropogenic climate change and implications for the future. We address these questions using a Holocene lake sediment record of hydrologic change from the Sierra Nevada Mountains coupled with marine sediment records from the Pacific. These data provide evidence of a persistent relationship between past climate warming, Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) shifts and centennial to millennial episodes of California aridity. The link is most evident during the thermal-maximum of the mid-Holocene (~8 to 3 ka ka = 1,000 calendar years before present) and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (~1 ka to 0.7 ka). In both cases, climate warming corresponded with cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific despite differences in the factors producing increased radiative forcing. The magnitude of prolonged eastern Pacific cooling was modest, similar to observed La Niña excursions of 1o to 2 °C. Given differences with current radiative forcing it remains uncertain if the Pacific will react in a similar manner in the 21st century, but should it follow apparent past behavior more intense and prolonged aridity in California would result.

  12. Synergistic roles of climate warming and human occupation in Patagonian megafaunal extinctions during the Last Deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalf, Jessica L.; Turney, Chris; Barnett, Ross; Martin, Fabiana; Bray, Sarah C.; Vilstrup, Julia T.; Orlando, Ludovic; Salas-Gismondi, Rodolfo; Loponte, Daniel; Medina, Matías; De Nigris, Mariana; Civalero, Teresa; Fernández, Pablo Marcelo; Gasco, Alejandra; Duran, Victor; Seymour, Kevin L.; Otaola, Clara; Gil, Adolfo; Paunero, Rafael; Prevosti, Francisco J.; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Wheeler, Jane C.; Borrero, Luis; Austin, Jeremy J.; Cooper, Alan

    2016-01-01

    The causes of Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions (60,000 to 11,650 years ago, hereafter 60 to 11.65 ka) remain contentious, with major phases coinciding with both human arrival and climate change around the world. The Americas provide a unique opportunity to disentangle these factors as human colonization took place over a narrow time frame (~15 to 14.6 ka) but during contrasting temperature trends across each continent. Unfortunately, limited data sets in South America have so far precluded detailed comparison. We analyze genetic and radiocarbon data from 89 and 71 Patagonian megafaunal bones, respectively, more than doubling the high-quality Pleistocene megafaunal radiocarbon data sets from the region. We identify a narrow megafaunal extinction phase 12,280 ± 110 years ago, some 1 to 3 thousand years after initial human presence in the area. Although humans arrived immediately prior to a cold phase, the Antarctic Cold Reversal stadial, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until the stadial finished and the subsequent warming phase commenced some 1 to 3 thousand years later. The increased resolution provided by the Patagonian material reveals that the sequence of climate and extinction events in North and South America were temporally inverted, but in both cases, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until human presence and climate warming coincided. Overall, metapopulation processes involving subpopulation connectivity on a continental scale appear to have been critical for megafaunal species survival of both climate change and human impacts. PMID:27386563

  13. Assessing Climate Change Impacts for DoD installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-10

    FINAL REPORT Assessing Climate Change Impacts for DoD Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season SERDP Project RC...DATES COVERED (From - To) March 2012 to March 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Assessing climate change impacts for DoD installations in...select NARCCAP and UA-ATMO downscaled CMIP models. Figure 9: July-August precipitation during the period of historical climate versus climate change

  14. On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahl, Sebastian; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Keenlyside, Noel [Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)

    2011-03-15

    Most of the current coupled general circulation models show a strong warm bias in the eastern Tropical Atlantic. In this paper, various sensitivity experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) are described. A largely reduced warm bias and an improved seasonal cycle in the eastern Tropical Atlantic are simulated in one particular version of KCM. By comparing the stable and well-tested standard version with the sensitivity experiments and the modified version, mechanisms contributing to the reduction of the eastern Atlantic warm bias are identified and compared to what has been proposed in literature. The error in the spring and early summer zonal winds associated with erroneous zonal precipitation seems to be the key mechanism, and large-scale coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks play an important role in reducing the warm bias. Improved winds in boreal spring cause the summer cooling in the eastern Tropical Atlantic (ETA) via shoaling of the thermocline and increased upwelling, and hence reduced sea surface temperature (SST). Reduced SSTs in the summer suppress convection and favor the development of low-level cloud cover in the ETA region. Subsurface ocean structure is shown to be improved, and potentially influences the development of the bias. The strong warm bias along the southeastern coastline is related to underestimation of low-level cloud cover and the associated overestimation of surface shortwave radiation in the same region. Therefore, in addition to the primarily wind forced response at the equator both changes in surface shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation contribute significantly to reduction of the warm bias from summer to fall. (orig.)

  15. Elevational differences in developmental plasticity determine phenological responses of grasshoppers to recent climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Lauren B; Nufio, César R; Kirk, Evan M; Kingsolver, Joel G

    2015-06-22

    Annual species may increase reproduction by increasing adult body size through extended development, but risk being unable to complete development in seasonally limited environments. Synthetic reviews indicate that most, but not all, species have responded to recent climate warming by advancing the seasonal timing of adult emergence or reproduction. Here, we show that 50 years of climate change have delayed development in high-elevation, season-limited grasshopper populations, but advanced development in populations at lower elevations. Developmental delays are most pronounced for early-season species, which might benefit most from delaying development when released from seasonal time constraints. Rearing experiments confirm that population, elevation and temperature interact to determine development time. Population differences in developmental plasticity may account for variability in phenological shifts among adults. An integrated consideration of the full life cycle that considers local adaptation and plasticity may be essential for understanding and predicting responses to climate change.

  16. Elevational differences in developmental plasticity determine phenological responses of grasshoppers to recent climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Lauren B.; Nufio, César R.; Kirk, Evan M.; Kingsolver, Joel G.

    2015-01-01

    Annual species may increase reproduction by increasing adult body size through extended development, but risk being unable to complete development in seasonally limited environments. Synthetic reviews indicate that most, but not all, species have responded to recent climate warming by advancing the seasonal timing of adult emergence or reproduction. Here, we show that 50 years of climate change have delayed development in high-elevation, season-limited grasshopper populations, but advanced development in populations at lower elevations. Developmental delays are most pronounced for early-season species, which might benefit most from delaying development when released from seasonal time constraints. Rearing experiments confirm that population, elevation and temperature interact to determine development time. Population differences in developmental plasticity may account for variability in phenological shifts among adults. An integrated consideration of the full life cycle that considers local adaptation and plasticity may be essential for understanding and predicting responses to climate change. PMID:26041342

  17. The Effect of Urban Heat Island on Climate Warming in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qunfang Huang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Yangtze River Delta (YRD has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic development since 1978 and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA has been one of the three largest urban agglomerations in China. We present evidence of a significant urban heat island (UHI effect on climate warming based on an analysis of the impacts of the urbanization rate, urban population, and land use changes on the warming rate of the daily average, minimal (nighttime and maximal (daytime air temperature in the YRDUA using 41 meteorological stations observation data. The effect of the UHI on climate warming shows a large spatial variability. The average warming rates of average air temperature of huge cities, megalopolises, large cities, medium-sized cities, and small cities are 0.483, 0.314 ± 0.030, 0.282 ± 0.042, 0.225 ± 0.044 and 0.179 ± 0.046 °C/decade during the period of 1957–2013, respectively. The average warming rates of huge cities and megalopolises are significantly higher than those of medium-sized cities and small cities, indicating that the UHI has a significant effect on climate warming (t-test, p < 0.05. Significantly positive correlations are found between the urbanization rate, population, built-up area and warming rate of average air temperature (p < 0.001. The average warming rate of average air temperature attributable to urbanization is 0.124 ± 0.074 °C/decade in the YRDUA. Urbanization has a measurable effect on the observed climate warming in the YRD aggravating the global climate warming.

  18. The Effect of Urban Heat Island on Climate Warming in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Qunfang; Lu, Yuqi

    2015-01-01

    The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic development since 1978 and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) has been one of the three largest urban agglomerations in China. We present evidence of a significant urban heat island (UHI) effect on climate warming based on an analysis of the impacts of the urbanization rate, urban population, and land use changes on the warming rate of the daily average, minimal (nighttime) and maximal (daytime) air temperature in the YRDUA using 41 meteorological stations observation data. The effect of the UHI on climate warming shows a large spatial variability. The average warming rates of average air temperature of huge cities, megalopolises, large cities, medium-sized cities, and small cities are 0.483, 0.314 ± 0.030, 0.282 ± 0.042, 0.225 ± 0.044 and 0.179 ± 0.046 °C/decade during the period of 1957–2013, respectively. The average warming rates of huge cities and megalopolises are significantly higher than those of medium-sized cities and small cities, indicating that the UHI has a significant effect on climate warming (t-test, p < 0.05). Significantly positive correlations are found between the urbanization rate, population, built-up area and warming rate of average air temperature (p < 0.001). The average warming rate of average air temperature attributable to urbanization is 0.124 ± 0.074 °C/decade in the YRDUA. Urbanization has a measurable effect on the observed climate warming in the YRD aggravating the global climate warming. PMID:26225986

  19. Climate-induced warming imposes a threat to north European spring ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jyväsjärvi, Jussi; Marttila, Hannu; Rossi, Pekka M; Ala-Aho, Pertti; Olofsson, Bo; Nisell, Jakob; Backman, Birgitta; Ilmonen, Jari; Virtanen, Risto; Paasivirta, Lauri; Britschgi, Ritva; Kløve, Bjørn; Muotka, Timo

    2015-12-01

    Interest in climate change effects on groundwater has increased dramatically during the last decade. The mechanisms of climate-related groundwater depletion have been thoroughly reviewed, but the influence of global warming on groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) remains poorly known. Here we report long-term water temperature trends in 66 northern European cold-water springs. A vast majority of the springs (82%) exhibited a significant increase in water temperature during 1968-2012. Mean spring water temperatures were closely related to regional air temperature and global radiative forcing of the corresponding year. Based on three alternative climate scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP6) and high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), we estimate that increase in mean spring water temperature in the region is likely to range from 0.67 °C (RCP2.6) to 5.94 °C (RCP8.5) by 2086. According to the worst-case scenario, water temperature of these originally cold-water ecosystems (regional mean in the late 1970s: 4.7 °C) may exceed 12 °C by the end of this century. We used bryophyte and macroinvertebrate species data from Finnish springs and spring-fed streams to assess ecological impacts of the predicted warming. An increase in spring water temperature by several degrees will likely have substantial biodiversity impacts, causing regional extinction of native, cold-stenothermal spring specialists, whereas species diversity of headwater generalists is likely to increase. Even a slight (by 1 °C) increase in water temperature may eliminate endemic spring species, thus altering bryophyte and macroinvertebrate assemblages of spring-fed streams. Climate change-induced warming of northern regions may thus alter species composition of the spring biota and cause regional homogenization of biodiversity in headwater ecosystems.

  20. Climate Warming and Seasonal Precipitation Change Interact to Limit Species Distribution Shifts across Western North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Melanie A; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

    2016-01-01

    Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations)-despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year). This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species' elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.

  1. Climate Warming and Seasonal Precipitation Change Interact to Limit Species Distribution Shifts across Western North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie A Harsch

    Full Text Available Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations-despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward. To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year. This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species' elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.

  2. Climate Warming and Seasonal Precipitation Change Interact to Limit Species Distribution Shifts across Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Melanie A.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

    2016-01-01

    Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations)–despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year). This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species’ elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change. PMID:27447834

  3. The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarasekare, Priyanga; Coutinho, Renato M

    2013-11-01

    1. Lately, there has been interest in using the intrinsic growth rate (rm) to predict the effects of climate warming on ectotherm population viability. However, because rm is calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, its reliability in predicting population persistence depends on whether ectotherm populations can achieve a stable age/stage distribution in thermally variable environments. Here, we investigate this issue using a mathematical framework that incorporates mechanistic descriptions of temperature effects on vital rates into a stage-structured population model that realistically captures the temperature-induced variability in developmental delays that characterize ectotherm life cycles. 2. We find that populations experiencing seasonal temperature variation converge to a stage distribution whose intra-annual pattern remains invariant across years. As a result, the mean annual per capita growth rate also remains constant between years. The key insight is the mechanism that allows populations converge to a stationary stage distribution. Temperature effects on the biochemical processes (e.g. enzyme kinetics, hormonal regulation) that underlie life-history traits (reproduction, development and mortality) exhibit well-defined thermodynamical properties (e.g. changes in entropy and enthalpy) that lead to predictable outcomes (e.g. reduction in reaction rates or hormonal action at temperature extremes). As a result, life-history traits exhibit a systematic and predictable response to seasonal temperature variation. This in turn leads to temporally predictable temperature responses of the stage distribution and the per capita growth rate. 3. When climate warming causes an increase in the mean annual temperature and/or the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations, the population model predicts the mean annual per capita growth rate to decline to zero within 100 years when warming is slow relative to the developmental period of the organism (0.03-0.05°C per year) and to

  4. Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creed, Irena F; Spargo, Adam T; Jones, Julia A; Buttle, Jim M; Adams, Mary B; Beall, Fred D; Booth, Eric G; Campbell, John L; Clow, Dave; Elder, Kelly; Green, Mark B; Grimm, Nancy B; Miniat, Chelcy; Ramlal, Patricia; Saha, Amartya; Sebestyen, Stephen; Spittlehouse, Dave; Sterling, Shannon; Williams, Mark W; Winkler, Rita; Yao, Huaxia

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to

  5. Micro-climatic controls and warming effects on flowering time in alpine snowbeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbognani, Michele; Bernareggi, Giulietta; Perucco, Francesco; Tomaselli, Marcello; Petraglia, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    Alpine snowbed communities are among the habitats most threatened by climate change. The warmer temperature predicted, coupled with advanced snowmelt time, will influence flowering phenology, which is a key process in species adaptation to changing environmental conditions and plant population dynamics. However, we know little about the effects of changing micro-climate on flowering time in snowbeds and the mechanisms underlying such phenological responses. The flowering phenology of species inhabiting alpine snowbeds was assessed with weekly observations over five growing seasons. We analysed flowering time in relation to micro-climatic variation in snowmelt date, soil and air temperature, and experimental warming during the snow-free period. This approach allowed us to test hypotheses concerning the processes driving flowering phenology. The plants were finely tuned with inter-annual and intra-seasonal variations of their micro-climate, but species did not track the same micro-climatic feature to flower. At the growing-season time-scale, the air surrounding the plants was the most common trigger of the blooming period. However, at the annual time-scale, the snowmelt date was the main controlling factor for flowering time, even in warmer climate. Moreover, spatial patterns of the snowmelt influenced the developmental rate of the species because in later snowmelt sites the plants needed a lower level of heat accumulation to enter anthesis. Phenological responses to experimental warming differed among species, were proportional to the pre-flowering time-span of plants, and did not show consistent trends of change over time. Finally, warmer temperature produced an overall increase of flowering synchrony both within and among plant species.

  6. Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Riedy

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews. WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15 in December 2009. In this paper, we examine the role that deliberative mini-publics can play in facilitating the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response. We pursue this intent through a reflective evaluation of the Australian component of the World Wide Views on Global Warming project (WWViews. Our evaluation of WWViews is mixed. The Australian event was delivered with integrity and feedback from Australian participants was almost universally positive. Globally, WWViews demonstrated that it is feasible to convene a global mini-public to deliberate on issues of global relevance, such as climate change. On the other hand, the contribution of WWViews towards the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response was limited and it achieved little influence on global climate change policy. We identify lessons for future global mini-publics, including the need to prioritise the quality of deliberation and provide flexibility to respond to cultural and political contexts in different parts of the world. Future global mini-publics may be more influential if they seek to represent discourse diversity in addition to demographic profiles, use designs that maximise the potential for transmission from public to empowered space, run over longer time periods to build momentum for change and experiment with ways of bringing global citizens together in a single process instead of discrete national events.

  7. Sensitivity of spring phenology to warming across temporal and spatial climate gradients in two independent databases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Ault, Toby R.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Allen, Jenica M.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Cleland, Elsa E.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Lancaster, Lesley T.; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; McGill, Brian J.; Parmesan, Camille; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, James; Salamin, Nicolas; Schwartz, Mark D.; Travers, Steven E.

    2012-01-01

    Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One—PEP725—has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other—NECTAR—includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.

  8. Responses of spring phenology to climate warming reduced over the past decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yongshuo. H.; Zhao, hongfang; piao, Shilong; Peaucelle, Marc; Peng, Shushi; Zhou, Guiyun; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Mengtian; Menzel, Annette; Penuelas, Josep; Song, Yang; Vitasse, Yann; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Janssens, Ivan. A.

    2016-04-01

    The phenology of spring leaf unfolding is one of the key indicators of the climate change on ecosystems, and influences regional and hemispheric-scale carbon balances and plant-animal interactions. Changes in the phenology of spring leaf unfolding can also exert biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget. Recent studies have reported significant advances in spring phenology as a result of warming in most northern hemisphere regions. Climate warming is projected to further increase, but the future evolution of the phenology of spring leaf unfolding remains uncertain - in view of the imperfect understanding of how the underlying mechanisms respond to environmental stimuli. In addition, the relative contributions of each environmental stimulus, which together define the apparent temperature sensitivity of the phenology of spring leaf unfolding (advances in days per degree Celsius warming, ST), may also change over time. An improved characterization of the variation in phenological responses to spring temperature is thus valuable, provided that it addresses temporal and spatial scales relevant for regional projections. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, we show here that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance per ° C) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4.0 ± 1.8 days ° C-1 during 1980-1994 to 2.3 ± 1.6 days ° C-1 during 1999-2013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24%-30%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also play a role, such as 'photoperiod limitation' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates

  9. Carbon and nutrient responses to fire and climate warming in Alaskan arctic tundra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Y.; Rastetter, E. B.; Shaver, G. R.; Rocha, A. V.; Kwiatkowski, B.; Pearce, A.; Zhuang, Q.; Mishra, U.

    2015-12-01

    Fire frequency has dramatically increased in the tundra of northern Alaska, which has major implications for the carbon budget of the region and the functioning of these ecosystems that support important wildlife species. We applied the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to investigate both the short- and long-term post-fire succession of plant and soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus fluxes and stocks along a burn severity gradient in the 2007 Anaktuvuk River Fire scar in northern Alaska. We compared the patterns of biomass and soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus recoveries with different burn severities and warming intensities. Modeling results indicated that the early regrowth of post-fire tundra vegetation was limited primarily by its canopy photosynthetic potential, rather than nutrient availability. The long-term recovery of C balance from fire disturbance is mainly determined by the internal redistribution of nutrients among ecosystem components, rather than the supply of nutrients from external sources (e.g., nitrogen deposition and fixation, phosphorus weathering). Soil organic matter is the principal source of plant-available nutrients and determines the spatial variation of vegetation biomass across the North Slope of Alaska. Across the North Slope of Alaska, we examined the effects of changes in N and P cycles on tundra C budgets under climate warming. Our results indicate that the ongoing climate warming in Arctic enhances mineralization and leads to a net transfer of nutrient from soil organic matter to vegetation, thereby stimulating tundra plant growth and increased C sequestration in the tundra ecosystems.

  10. An unexpected role for mixotrophs in the response of peatland carbon cycling to climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jassey, Vincent E J; Signarbieux, Constant; Hättenschwiler, Stephan; Bragazza, Luca; Buttler, Alexandre; Delarue, Frédéric; Fournier, Bertrand; Gilbert, Daniel; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Lara, Enrique; Mills, Robert T E; Mitchell, Edward A D; Payne, Richard J; Robroek, Bjorn J M

    2015-11-25

    Mixotrophic protists are increasingly recognized for their significant contribution to carbon (C) cycling. As phototrophs they contribute to photosynthetic C fixation, whilst as predators of decomposers, they indirectly influence organic matter decomposition. Despite these direct and indirect effects on the C cycle, little is known about the responses of peatland mixotrophs to climate change and the potential consequences for the peatland C cycle. With a combination of field and microcosm experiments, we show that mixotrophs in the Sphagnum bryosphere play an important role in modulating peatland C cycle responses to experimental warming. We found that five years of consecutive summer warming with peaks of +2 to +8°C led to a 50% reduction in the biomass of the dominant mixotrophs, the mixotrophic testate amoebae (MTA). The biomass of other microbial groups (including decomposers) did not change, suggesting MTA to be particularly sensitive to temperature. In a microcosm experiment under controlled conditions, we then manipulated the abundance of MTA, and showed that the reported 50% reduction of MTA biomass in the field was linked to a significant reduction of net C uptake (-13%) of the entire Sphagnum bryosphere. Our findings suggest that reduced abundance of MTA with climate warming could lead to reduced peatland C fixation.

  11. Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mod, Heidi K.; Luoto, Miska

    2016-12-01

    Climate change has been observed to expand distributions of woody plants in many areas of arctic and alpine environments—a phenomenon called shrubification. New spatial arrangements of shrubs cause further changes in vegetation via changing dynamics of biotic interactions. However, the mediating influence of shrubification is rarely acknowledged in predictions of tundra vegetation change. Here, we examine possible warming-induced landscape-level vegetation changes in a high-latitude environment using species distribution modelling (SDM), specifically concentrating on the impacts of shrubification on ambient vegetation. First, we produced estimates of current shrub and tree cover and forecasts of their expansion under climate change scenarios to be incorporated to SDMs of 116 vascular plants. Second, the predictions of vegetation change based on the models including only abiotic predictors and the models including abiotic, shrub and tree predictors were compared in a representative test area. Based on our model predictions, abundance of woody plants will expand, thus decreasing predicted species richness, amplifying species turnover and increasing the local extinction risk for ambient vegetation. However, the spatial variation demonstrated in our predictions highlights that tundra vegetation can be expected to show a wide variety of different responses to the combined effects of warming and shrubification, depending on the original plant species pool and environmental conditions. We conclude that realistic forecasts of the future require acknowledging the role of shrubification in warming-induced tundra vegetation change.

  12. An unexpected role for mixotrophs in the response of peatland carbon cycling to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jassey, Vincent E. J.; Signarbieux, Constant; Hättenschwiler, Stephan; Bragazza, Luca; Buttler, Alexandre; Delarue, Frédéric; Fournier, Bertrand; Gilbert, Daniel; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Lara, Enrique; T. E. Mills, Robert; Mitchell, Edward A. D.; Payne, Richard J.; Robroek, Bjorn J. M.

    2015-01-01

    Mixotrophic protists are increasingly recognized for their significant contribution to carbon (C) cycling. As phototrophs they contribute to photosynthetic C fixation, whilst as predators of decomposers, they indirectly influence organic matter decomposition. Despite these direct and indirect effects on the C cycle, little is known about the responses of peatland mixotrophs to climate change and the potential consequences for the peatland C cycle. With a combination of field and microcosm experiments, we show that mixotrophs in the Sphagnum bryosphere play an important role in modulating peatland C cycle responses to experimental warming. We found that five years of consecutive summer warming with peaks of +2 to +8°C led to a 50% reduction in the biomass of the dominant mixotrophs, the mixotrophic testate amoebae (MTA). The biomass of other microbial groups (including decomposers) did not change, suggesting MTA to be particularly sensitive to temperature. In a microcosm experiment under controlled conditions, we then manipulated the abundance of MTA, and showed that the reported 50% reduction of MTA biomass in the field was linked to a significant reduction of net C uptake (-13%) of the entire Sphagnum bryosphere. Our findings suggest that reduced abundance of MTA with climate warming could lead to reduced peatland C fixation. PMID:26603894

  13. Energetic contribution potential of building-integrated photovoltaics on airports in warm climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruether, Ricardo [LabEEE - Laboratorio de Eficiencia Energetica em Edificacoes, UFSC - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900 (Brazil); LABSOLAR - Laboratorio de Energia Solar, UFSC - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900 (Brazil); Braun, Priscila [LabEEE - Laboratorio de Eficiencia Energetica em Edificacoes, UFSC - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900 (Brazil)

    2009-10-15

    Especially in warm climates, a considerable fraction of the electricity demand in commercial buildings is due to the intensive use of air-conditioning systems. Airport buildings in sunny and warm regions present a perfect match between energy demand and solar resource availability. Airport buildings are also typically large and horizontal, isolated and free of shading, and have a great potential for the integration of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. In this work, we assess the potential impact in energy demand reduction at the Florianopolis International Airport in Brazil (27 S, 48 W) with the use of building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems. We analyse the building's hourly energy consumption and solar irradiation data, to assess the match between energy demand and potential generation, and we estimate the PV power necessary to supply both the total amount and fractions of the annual energy demand. Our results show that the integration of PV systems on airport buildings in warm climates can supply the entire electric power consumption of an airport complex, in line with the general concept of a zero-energy building (ZEB). (author)

  14. To what extent can global warming events influence scaling properties of climatic fluctuations in glacial periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio; Carbone, Vincenzo

    2017-04-01

    The Earth's climate is an extremely unstable complex system consisting of nonlinear and still rather unknown interactions among atmosphere, land surface, ice and oceans. The system is mainly driven by solar irradiance, even if internal components as volcanic eruptions and human activities affect the atmospheric composition thus acting as a driver for climate changes. Since the extreme climate variability is the result of a set of phenomena operating from daily to multi-millennial timescales, with different correlation times, a study of the scaling properties of the system can evidence non-trivial persistent structures, internal or external physical processes. Recently, the scaling properties of the paleoclimate changes have been analyzed by distinguish between interglacial and glacial climates [Shao and Ditlevsen, 2016]. The results show that the last glacial record (20-120 kyr BP) presents some elements of multifractality, while the last interglacial period (0-10 kyr BP), say the Holocene period, seems to be characterized by a mono-fractal structure. This is associated to the absence of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events in the interglacial climate that could be the cause for the absence of multifractality. This hypothesis is supported by the analysis of the period between 18 and 27 kyr BP, i.e. during the Last Glacial Period, in which a single DO event have been registred. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) we were able to detect a timescale separation within the Last Glacial Period (20-120 kyr BP) in two main components: a high-frequency component, related to the occurrence of DO events, and a low-frequency one, associated to the cooling/warming phase switch [Alberti et al., 2014]. Here, we investigate the scaling properties of the climate fluctuations within the Last Glacial Period, where abrupt climate changes, characterized by fast increase of temperature usually called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, have been particularly pronounced. By using the

  15. Climate Control Load Reduction Strategies for Electric Drive Vehicles in Warm Weather

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffers, M. A.; Chaney, L.; Rugh, J. P.

    2015-04-30

    Passenger compartment climate control is one of the largest auxiliary loads on a vehicle. Like conventional vehicles, electric vehicles (EVs) require climate control to maintain occupant comfort and safety, but cabin heating and air conditioning have a negative impact on driving range for all electric vehicles. Range reduction caused by climate control and other factors is a barrier to widespread adoption of EVs. Reducing the thermal loads on the climate control system will extend driving range, thereby reducing consumer range anxiety and increasing the market penetration of EVs. Researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have investigated strategies for vehicle climate control load reduction, with special attention toward EVs. Outdoor vehicle thermal testing was conducted on two 2012 Ford Focus Electric vehicles to evaluate thermal management strategies for warm weather, including solar load reduction and cabin pre-ventilation. An advanced thermal test manikin was used to assess a zonal approach to climate control. In addition, vehicle thermal analysis was used to support testing by exploring thermal load reduction strategies, evaluating occupant thermal comfort, and calculating EV range impacts. Through stationary cooling tests and vehicle simulations, a zonal cooling configuration demonstrated range improvement of 6%-15%, depending on the drive cycle. A combined cooling configuration that incorporated thermal load reduction and zonal cooling strategies showed up to 33% improvement in EV range.

  16. Past and future climatic changes in the Mediterranean area under various global warming scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiot, Joel

    2016-04-01

    Past climatic changes and their impacts on the natural vegetation can be used as a reference for the climatic changes projected by ensembles of climate models for the 21st century. The study of the Holocene shows that he Mediterranean has known several precipitation falls equivalent to what is projected for the end of the 21st century. These droughts were often correlated with the decline or collapse of Mediterranean civilisations, particularly in the eastern Basin. Nevertheless, while the past droughts were not characterized by particularly high temperature, future temperature increase will more or less significant according to the scenario. This will much intensify the water deficit for natural and artificial ecosystems. As a consequence, the projected climatic change can be considered as unprecedented during the last 10,000 years. We explore how they compare with the various scenarios corresponding to a 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C global warming according to the pre-industrial mean temperature, and we will determine the degree of dissimilarity of the Mediterranean climate under these global thresholds according to the long term climate variability.

  17. A geohydrologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to climate warming in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Safeeq

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Summer streamflows in the Pacific Northwest are largely derived from melting snow and groundwater discharge. As the climate warms, diminishing snowpack and earlier snowmelt will cause reductions in summer streamflow. Most assessments of the impacts of a changing climate to streamflow make use of downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs. Projected climate simulations from these GCMs are often too coarse for planning purposes, as they do not capture smaller scale topographic controls and other important watershed processes. This uncertainty is further amplified when downscaled climate predictions are coupled to macroscale hydrologic models that fail to capture streamflow contributions from deep groundwater. Deep aquifers play an important role in mediating streamflow response to climate change, and groundwater needs to be explicitly incorporated into sensitivity assessments. Here we develop and apply an analytical framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to a change in the timing and magnitude of recharge in a spatially-explicit fashion. Two patterns emerge from this analysis: first, areas with high streamflow sensitivity also have higher summer streamflows as compared to low sensitivity areas. Second, the level of sensitivity and spatial extent of highly sensitive areas diminishes over time as the summer progresses. Results of this analysis point to a robust, practical, and scalable approach that can help assess risk at the landscape scale, complement the downscaling approach, be applied to any climate scenario of interest, and provide a framework to assist land and water managers adapt to an uncertain and potentially challenging future.

  18. The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

    2012-12-01

    The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

  19. Influence of climatic warming in the Southem and Northem Hemisphere on the tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific Ocean

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TIAN Rong-xiang; WENG Huan-xin

    2006-01-01

    Based on analyzing the surface air temperature series in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere and the tropical cyclone (TC) over the western North Pacific Ocean, the relationships between climatic warming and the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone are investigated. The results showed that with the climatic warming in both hemispheres, the frequency of the tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific Ocean reduces and its intensity weakens simultaneously. A possible explanation might be that the cold air invasion from the Southern Hemisphere weakens due to global warming.

  20. Climate change. Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romps, David M; Seeley, Jacob T; Vollaro, David; Molinari, John

    2014-11-14

    Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%. When this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5% per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over this century.

  1. CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

    2015-06-26

    Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature.

  2. Impacts of climate warming on plants phenophases in China for the last 40 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Based on plant phenology data from 26 stations of the Chinese Phenology Observation Network of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the climate data, the change of plant phenophase in spring and the impact of climate warming on the plant phenophase in China for the last 40 years are analyzed. Furthermore, the geographical distribution models of phenophase in every decade are reconstructed, and the impact of climate warming on geographical distribution model of phenophase is studied as well. The results show that (ⅰ) the response of phenophase advance or delay to temperature change is nonlinear. Since the 1980s, at the same amplitude of temperature change, phenophase delay amplitude caused by temperature decrease is greater than phenophase advance amplitude caused by temperature increase; the rate of phenophase advance days decreases with temperature increase amplitude, and the rate of phenophase delay days increases with temperature decrease amplitude. (ⅱ) The geographical distribution model between phenophase and geographical location is unstable. Since the 1980s, with the spring temperature increasing in the most of China and decreasing in the south of Qinling Mountains, phenophases have advanced in northeastern China, North China and the lower reaches of the Changjiang River, and have delayed in the eastern part of southwestern China and the middle reaches of the Changjiang River; while the rate of the phenophase difference with latitude becomes smaller.

  3. Aerosol-induced changes of convective cloud anvils produce strong climate warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Koren

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of aerosol on clouds poses one of the largest uncertainties in estimating the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. In contrast, even small human-induced perturbations in cloud coverage, lifetime, height or optical properties can change the instantaneous radiative energy flux by hundreds of watts per unit area, and this forcing can be either warming or cooling. Clouds and aerosols form a complex coupled system that, unlike greenhouse gases, have relatively short lifetime (hours to days and inhomogeneous distribution. This and the inherent complexity of cloud microphysics and dynamics, and the strong coupling with meteorology explain why the estimation of the overall effect of aerosol on climate is so challenging.

    Here we focus on the effect of aerosol on cloud top properties of deep convective clouds over the tropical Atlantic. The tops of these vertically developed clouds consist of mostly ice and can reach high levels of the atmosphere, overshooting the lower stratosphere and reaching altitudes greater than 16 km. We show a link between aerosol, clouds and the free atmosphere wind profile that can change the magnitude and sign of the overall climate radiative forcing.

    This study demonstrates the deep link between cloud shape and aerosol loading and that the overall aerosol effect in regions of deep convective clouds might be warming. Moreover we show how averaging the cloud height and optical properties over large regions may lead to a false cooling estimation.

  4. Research of Interindividual Differences in Physiological Response under Hot-Dry and Warm-Wet Climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shilei Lu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Somatotype and habitus parameters may affect physiological control system, so the changes of physiological parameters are not the same when various people work in hot-dry and warm-wet climates. In this paper, a chamber built in Tianjin University was used to simulate comfortable, hot-dry and warm-wet climates. Sixty healthy university students were selected as subjects who were divided into four groups based on somatotype and habitus differences. The subjects were asked to exercise on a treadmill at moderate and heavy work intensities. Physiological parameters (rectal temperature and heart rate were measured after every 10-min work in the climate chamber. For different groups, the change trends of physiological parameters were different. With the enhancement of experimental conditions, the differences among four groups were weakened. Body surface area per unit of body mass (BSA/mass, percentage of body fat (%fat, and maximum oxygen consumption per unit of body mass (VO2max/mass were adopt to establish a revised body characteristic index (RBCI. RBCI was proved having significant correlation with physiological parameters, which means RBCI as the combined factors of somatotype and habitus parameters can be applied to evaluate the effect of individual characteristics on physiological systems.

  5. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G; Terando, Adam J; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

    2015-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

  6. Climate warming and interannual variability of phytoplankton phenology in the Northern Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Gittings, John

    2016-12-01

    In agreement with global patterns of climate change and increasing temperatures in the tropical oceans, the Northern Red Sea (NRS) has been warming over the last few decades. Using 18 years of remotely-sensed chlorophyll-a data (Chl-a, an index of phytoplankton biomass), we investigate the potential impacts of climate warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in the Northern Red Sea by exploring the mechanistic links with the regional physical environment. The results of the analysis reveal that, in accordance with other tropical ecosystems, phytoplankton biomass in the NRS will decrease in response to warmer climate scenarios. This is attributed to lower heat fluxes (heat loss to the atmosphere) during the bloom period, and enhanced vertical stratification, which prevents vertical mixing of nutrients into the euphotic layer. In addition, we show that during warmer conditions (when heat fluxes are weakened), the winter bloom initiates significantly later (by up to 10 weeks) and its duration is considerably reduced. The biological implications of alterations to phytoplankton phenology may include increased larval mortality of pelagic species, reduced recruitment, fisheries impacts and changes to community structure.

  7. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G.; Terando, Adam; Dunn, Robert R.; Frank, Steven D.

    2014-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

  8. Differentiated Responses of Apple Tree Floral Phenology to Global Warming in Contrasting Climatic Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legave, Jean-Michel; Guédon, Yann; Malagi, Gustavo; El Yaacoubi, Adnane; Bonhomme, Marc

    2015-01-01

    The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation (CA) declines and heat accumulation (HA) increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift toward responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios. PMID:26697028

  9. Differentiated Responses of Apple Tree Floral Phenology to Global Warming in Contrasting Climatic Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legave, Jean-Michel; Guédon, Yann; Malagi, Gustavo; El Yaacoubi, Adnane; Bonhomme, Marc

    2015-01-01

    The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation (CA) declines and heat accumulation (HA) increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift toward responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.

  10. Differentiated responses of apple tree floral phenology to global warming in contrasting climatic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Michel eLegave

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation declines and heat accumulation increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift towards responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.

  11. North Atlantic warming during Dansgaard-Oeschger events synchronous with Antarctic warming and out-of-phase with Greenland climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Tine L.; Thomsen, Erik; Moros, Matthias

    2016-02-01

    The precise reason for the differences and out-of-phase relationship between the abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger warmings in the Nordic seas and Greenland ice cores and the gradual warmings in the south-central Atlantic and Antarctic ice cores is poorly understood. Termed the bipolar seesaw, the differences are apparently linked to perturbations in the ocean circulation pattern. Here we show that surface and intermediate-depth water south of Iceland warmed gradually synchronously with the Antarctic warming and out of phase with the abrupt warming of the Nordic seas and over Greenland. The hinge line between areas showing abrupt and gradual warming was close to the Greenland-Scotland Ridge and the marine system appears to be a ‘push-and-pull’ system rather than a seesaw system. ‘Pull’ during the warm interstadials, when convection in the Nordic seas was active; ‘push’ during the cold stadials, when convection stopped and warm water from the south-central Atlantic pushed northward gradually warming the North Atlantic and Nordic seas.

  12. Artificial climate warming positively affects arbuscular mycorrhizae but decreases soil aggregate water stability in an annual grassland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rillig, M.C.; Wright, S.F.; Shaw, M.R.; Field, C.B.

    2002-04-01

    Despite the importance of arbuscular mycorrhizae to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. nutrient uptake, soil aggregation), and the increasing evidence of global warming, responses of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) to climate warming are poorly understood. In a field experiment using infrared heaters, we found effects of warming on AMF after one growing season in an annual grassland, in the absence of any effects on measured root parameters (weight, length, average diameter). AMF soil hyphal length was increased by over 40% in the warmed plots, accompanied by a strong trend for AMF root colonization increase. In the following year, root weight was again not significantly changed, and AMF root colonization increased significantly in the warmed plots. Concentration of the soil protein glomalin, a glycoprotein produced by AMF hyphae with importance in soil aggregation, was decreased in the warmed plots. Soil aggregate water stability, measured for five diameter size classes, was also decreased significantly. In the following year, soil aggregate weight in two size classes was decreased significantly, but the effect size was very small. These results indicate that ecosystem warming may have stimulated carbon allocation to AMF. Other factors either influenced glomalin decomposition or production, hence influencing the role of these symbionts in soil aggregation. The observed small changes in soil aggregation, if widespread among terrestrial ecosystems, could have important consequences for soil carbon storage and erosion in a warmed climate, especially if there are cumulative effects of warming. (au)

  13. Uncertainties in the attribution of greenhouse gas warming and implications for climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gareth S.; Stott, Peter A.; Mitchell, John F. B.

    2016-06-01

    Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near-surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning of the anthropogenic influence to individual factors, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, is much less robust. Differences in how forcing factors are applied, in their radiative influence and in models' climate sensitivities, substantially influence the response patterns. We find that standard optimal detection methodologies cannot fully reconcile this response diversity. By selecting a set of experiments to enable the diagnosing of greenhouse gases and the combined influence of other anthropogenic and natural factors, we find robust detections of well-mixed greenhouse gases across a large ensemble of models. Of the observed warming over the twentieth century of 0.65 K/century we find, using a multimodel mean not incorporating pattern uncertainty, a well-mixed greenhouse gas warming of 0.87 to 1.22 K/century. This is partially offset by cooling from other anthropogenic and natural influences of -0.54 to -0.22 K/century. Although better constrained than recent studies, the attributable trends across climate models are still wide, with implications for observational constrained estimates of transient climate response. Some of the uncertainties could be reduced in future by having more model data to better quantify the simulated estimates of the signals and natural variability, by designing model experiments more effectively and better quantification of the climate model radiative influences. Most importantly, how model pattern uncertainties are incorporated into the optimal detection methodology should be improved.

  14. Enhancing Primary School Students' Knowledge about Global Warming and Environmental Attitude Using Climate Change Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Bin Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir

    2015-01-01

    Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that…

  15. Troposphere-Stratosphere Coupled Chemistry-Climate Interactions: From Global Warming Projections to Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, P. J.; Abraham, N. L.; Maycock, A. C.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in stratospheric composition can affect tropospheric composition and vice versa. Of particular interest are trace gas concentrations at the interface between these two atmospheric layers in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). This is due to the crucial importance of composition changes in the UTLS for the global energy budget. In a recent study (Nowack et al., 2015), we provided further evidence that composition changes in the tropical UTLS can significantly affect global warming projections. Using a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we found a ~20% smaller global warming in response to an abrupt 4xCO2 forcing if composition feedbacks were included in the calculations as compared to simulations in which composition feedbacks were not considered. We attributed this large difference in surface warming mainly to circulation-driven decreases in tropical UTLS ozone and related changes in stratospheric water vapor, partly counteracted by simultaneous changes in ice clouds. Here, we explain why this result is expected to differ between models and how, inter alia, tropospheric chemical mechanisms can contribute to this uncertainty. We highlight that improving our understanding of processes in the tropical UTLS and their representation in Earth system models remains a key challenge in climate research.Finally, taking geoengineering as a new example, we show that changes in the stratosphere can have an impact on air quality in the troposphere. In particular, we explain for a simple solar radiation management scenario how changes in surface ozone can be linked to changes in meteorology and composition in the troposphere and stratosphere. In conclusion, we highlight the importance of considering air quality impacts when evaluating a variety of geoengineering scenarios. Reference: Nowack, P.J., Abraham, N.L., Maycock, A.C., Braesicke, P., Gregory, J.M., Joshi, M.M., Osprey, A., and Pyle, J.A. Nature Climate Change 5, 41

  16. Modeling Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in warm climates: a historical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.; Gasson, E.

    2016-12-01

    Early modeling of Antarctic Ice Sheet size vs. climate focused on asymmetry between retreat and growth, with much greater warming needed to cause retreat from full ice cover, due to Height Mass Balance Feedback and albedo feedback. This led to a long-standing model-data conflict, with models needing 1000 to2000 ppmv atmospheric CO2 to produce retreat from full size, vs. proxy data of large ice fluctuations despite much lower CO2 since the Miocene.Subsequent modeling with marine ice physics found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could undergo repeated warm-period collapses with realistic past forcing. However, that yields only 3 to 7 m equivalent sea-level rise above modern, compared to 10 to 20 m or more suggested by some geologic data. Large subglacial basins in East Antarctica could be vulnerable to the same processes,but did not retreat in most models due to narrower and shallower sills.After recent modifications, some ice sheet models were able to produce warm-period collapse of major East Antarctic basins, with sea-level rise of up to 15 m. The modifications are (i) hydrofracturing by surface melt, and structural failure of ice cliffs, or (ii) numerical treatment at the grounding line. In these models, large retreat occurs both for past warmintervals, and also for future business-as-usual scenarios.Some interpretations of data in the late Oligocene and Miocene suggest yet larger fluctuations, between 50 to 100% of modern Antarctic size. That would require surface-melt driven retreat of some terrestrial East Antarctic ice, despite the hysteresis issue raised above. A recent study using a coupled climate-ice sheet model found that with a finer climate gridand more frequent coupling exchange, substantial retreat of terrestrial Antarctica can occur with 500 to 840 ppmv CO2, much lower than in earlier models. This will allow meaningful interactions between modeling and deeper-time geologic interpretations since the late Oligocene.

  17. Disentangling greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling to reveal Earth’s climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storelvmo, T.; Leirvik, T.; Lohmann, U.; Phillips, P. C. B.; Wild, M.

    2016-04-01

    Earth’s climate sensitivity has long been subject to heated debate and has spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of its most likely range. Recent observational studies have produced estimates of transient climate sensitivity, that is, the global mean surface temperature increase at the time of CO2 doubling, as low as 1.3 K (refs ,), well below the best estimate produced by global climate models (1.8 K). Here, we present an observation-based study of the time period 1964 to 2010, which does not rely on climate models. The method incorporates observations of greenhouse gas concentrations, temperature and radiation from approximately 1,300 surface sites into an energy balance framework. Statistical methods commonly applied to economic time series are then used to decompose observed temperature trends into components attributable to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations and surface radiation. We find that surface radiation trends, which have been largely explained by changes in atmospheric aerosol loading, caused a cooling that masked approximately one-third of the continental warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations over the past half-century. In consequence, the method yields a higher transient climate sensitivity (2.0 +/- 0.8 K) than other observational studies.

  18. Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandiano, Evgenia S.; van der Meer, Marcel T. J.; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.; Bauch, Henning A.

    2017-04-01

    Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate.

  19. The toxicology of climate change: environmental contaminants in a warming world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noyes, Pamela D; McElwee, Matthew K; Miller, Hilary D; Clark, Bryan W; Van Tiem, Lindsey A; Walcott, Kia C; Erwin, Kyle N; Levin, Edward D

    2009-08-01

    Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation

  20. Effect of Warm Atlantic Waters on the Climate Anomalies in the West Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Zolotokrylin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Significant climatic changes of oceanic and atmospheric elements and a relation of them to the ocean surface winter anomalies in North Atlantic are analyzed in the paper. Periods of «warm» ocean (2002–2012 and «cold» ocean (1960–1970 were determined. Positive anomalies of the ocean surface temperature increase the ice-free water area and, correspondingly, decrease the ice-field area. As a result of such changes in a state of the ocean surface (open water and ice, surface air temperature rises, and, consequently, atmospheric pressure in central part of a given Arctic sector drops.

  1. Global Warming and the Green Paradox: A review of adverse effects of climate policies

    OpenAIRE

    Frederick van der Ploeg; Cees Withagen

    2013-01-01

    This article examines the possible adverse effects of well-intended climate policies. A weak Green Paradox arises if the announcement of a future carbon tax or a sufficiently fast rising carbon tax encourages fossil fuel owners to extract reserves more aggressively, thus exacerbating global warming. We argue that such policies may also encourage more fossil fuel to be locked in the crust of the earth, which can offset the adverse effects of the weak Green Paradox. We show that a subsidy on cl...

  2. Data of cost-optimality and technical solutions for high energy performance buildings in warm climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zacà, Ilaria; D'Agostino, Delia; Maria Congedo, Paolo; Baglivo, Cristina

    2015-09-01

    The data reported in this article refers to input and output information related to the research articles entitled Assessment of cost-optimality and technical solutions in high performance multi-residential buildings in the Mediterranean area by Zacà et al. (Assessment of cost-optimality and technical solutions in high performance multi-residential buildings in the Mediterranean area, in press.) and related to the research article Cost-optimal analysis and technical comparison between standard and high efficient mono residential buildings in a warm climate by Baglivo et al. (Energy, 2015, 10.1016/j.energy.2015.02.062, in press).

  3. Impact of urbanization and climate warming on energy consumption in large cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimenko, V. V.; Ginzburg, A. S.; Demchenko, P. F.; Tereshin, A. G.; Belova, I. N.; Kasilova, E. V.

    2016-10-01

    This article considers the urban heat island effect, taking into account peculiarities of energy consumption in large cities. It is shown that energy demand in large cities must be planned, taking into account of the seasonal asymmetry of the impact of anthropogenic heat fluxes on energy demand of the urban economy in the warm and cold seasons of the year. Together with the heat island effect, climate changes in Russian cities should decrease the overall energy demand due to space heating and air conditioning. At the same time, the increasing energy share used for air conditioning always remains one or two orders of magnitude smaller than the energy share used for space heating.

  4. Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenigk, Torben; Brodeau, Laurent

    2017-07-01

    Three quasi-equilibrium simulations using constant greenhouse gas forcing corresponding to years 2000, 2015 and 2030 have been performed with the global coupled model EC-Earth in order to analyze the Arctic climate and interactions with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming. The model simulations indicate an accelerated warming and ice extent reduction in the Arctic between the year-2030 and year-2015 simulations compared to the change between the year-2015 and year-2000 simulations. Both Arctic warming and sea ice reduction are closely linked to the increase of ocean heat transport into the Arctic, particularly through the Barents Sea Opening. Decadal variations of Arctic sea ice extent and ice volume are of the same order of magnitude as the observed ice extent reductions in the last 30 years and are dominated by the variability of the ocean heat transports through the Barents Sea Opening and the Bering Strait. Despite a general warming of mid and high northern latitudes, a substantial cooling is found in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic under year-2015 and year-2030 conditions. This cooling is related to a strong reduction in the AMOC, itself due to reduced deep water formation in the Labrador Sea. The observed trend towards a more negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the observed linkage between autumn Arctic ice variations and NAO are reproduced in our model simulations for selected 30-year periods but are not robust over longer time periods. This indicates that the observed linkages between ice and NAO might not be robust in reality either, and that the observational time period is still too short to reliably separate the trend from the natural variability.

  5. Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenigk, Torben; Brodeau, Laurent

    2016-09-01

    Three quasi-equilibrium simulations using constant greenhouse gas forcing corresponding to years 2000, 2015 and 2030 have been performed with the global coupled model EC-Earth in order to analyze the Arctic climate and interactions with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming. The model simulations indicate an accelerated warming and ice extent reduction in the Arctic between the year-2030 and year-2015 simulations compared to the change between the year-2015 and year-2000 simulations. Both Arctic warming and sea ice reduction are closely linked to the increase of ocean heat transport into the Arctic, particularly through the Barents Sea Opening. Decadal variations of Arctic sea ice extent and ice volume are of the same order of magnitude as the observed ice extent reductions in the last 30 years and are dominated by the variability of the ocean heat transports through the Barents Sea Opening and the Bering Strait. Despite a general warming of mid and high northern latitudes, a substantial cooling is found in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic under year-2015 and year-2030 conditions. This cooling is related to a strong reduction in the AMOC, itself due to reduced deep water formation in the Labrador Sea. The observed trend towards a more negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the observed linkage between autumn Arctic ice variations and NAO are reproduced in our model simulations for selected 30-year periods but are not robust over longer time periods. This indicates that the observed linkages between ice and NAO might not be robust in reality either, and that the observational time period is still too short to reliably separate the trend from the natural variability.

  6. Responses of Plants’ Phenology to Climate Warming in the Desert Area in Northwestern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaofeng Chang

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available With climate warming, plants’ spring phenology has advanced while autumn phenology has delayed. How does the phenology of desert plants respond to climatic variation? To reveal it, this study analyzed the phenological data of 22 desert species growing in the Minqin Desert Plants Botanical Garden located in the typical desert area in northwest China. The data was observed during the year 1974-2009. Results revealed that comparing with the literatures available, the temperature in the study area since 1974 rose more significantly and plants’ growing periods were longer. Both the advance of arbor’s spring phenology and the delay of herb’s autumn phenology were obviously greater than that reported in available literature. The starting date of spring phenolgy advanced markedly. From 1974 to 2009, the starting date of spring phenology, the ending date of autumn phenology and plants’ growing duration experienced 6 stages. The phenological changes in different stages were closely related to temperature variation.

  7. Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hare, W.; Cramer, W.; Schaeffer, M.; Battaglini, A.; Jaeger, C.

    2011-01-01

    Defining and operationalizing Article 2 of the UNFCCC remains a challenge. The question of what is dangerous climate change is not a purely scientific one, as danger necessarily has a subjective dimension and its definition requires judgment and precaution. The papers in this special issue of Region

  8. Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hare, W.; Cramer, W.; Schaeffer, M.; Battaglini, A.; Jaeger, C.

    2011-01-01

    Defining and operationalizing Article 2 of the UNFCCC remains a challenge. The question of what is dangerous climate change is not a purely scientific one, as danger necessarily has a subjective dimension and its definition requires judgment and precaution. The papers in this special issue of

  9. How is climate warming altering the carbon cycle of a tundra ecosystem in the Siberian Arctic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belelli Marchesini, Luca; (Ko) van Huissteden, Jacobus; van der Molen, Michiel; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Maximov, Trofim; Budishchev, Artem; Gallagher, Angela; (Han) Dolman, Albertus J.

    2015-04-01

    Climate has been warming over the the Arctic region with the strongest anomalies taking place in autumn and winter for the period 2000-2010, particularly in northern Eurasia. The quantification of the impact on climate warming on the degradation of permafrost and the associated potential release to the atmosphere of carbon stocked in the soil under the form of greenhouse gases, thus further increasing the radiative forcing of the atmosphere, is currently a matter of scientific debate. The positive trend in primary productivity in the last decades inferred by vegetation indexes (NDVI) and confirmed by observations on the enhanced growth of shrub vegetation represents indeed a contrasting process that, if prevalent could offset GHG emissions or even strengthen the carbon sink over the Arctic tundra. At the site of Kytalyk, in north-eastern Siberia, net fluxes of CO2 at ecosystem scale (NEE) have been monitored by eddy covariance technique since 2003. While presenting the results of the seasonal (snow free period) and inter-annual variability of NEE, conceived as the interplay between meteorological drivers and ecosystem responses, we test the role of climate as the main source of NEE variability in the last decade using a data oriented statistical approach. The impact of the timing and duration of the snow free period on the seasonal carbon budget is also considered. Finally, by including the results of continuous micrometeorological observations of methane fluxes taken during summer 2012, corroborated with seasonal CH4 budgets from two previous shorter campaigns (2008, 2009), as well as an experimentally determined estimate of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) flux, we provide an assessment of the carbon budget and its stability over time. The examined tundra ecosystem was found to sequester CO2 during the snow free season with relatively small inter-annual variability (-97.9±12.1gC m-2) during the last decade and without any evident trend despite the carbon uptake

  10. Examining Impact of Global warming on the summer monsoon system using regional Climate Model (PRECIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwardhan, S. K.; Kundeti, K.; Krishna Kumar, K.

    2011-12-01

    Every year, southwest monsoon arrives over Indian region with remarkable regularity. It hits the southern state of Kerala first by the end of May or the early June. More than 70% of the annual precipitation is received during the four monsoon months viz. June to September. This monsoon rainfall is vital for the agriculture as well as for the yearly needs of Indian population. The performance of the monsoon depends on the timely onset over southern tip of India and its progress along the entire country. This northward progression of monsoon to cover the entire Indian landmass, many times, is associated with the formation of synoptic scale system in the Bay of Bengal region and their movement along the monsoon trough region. The analysis of the observed cyclonic disturbances show that their frequency has reduced in recent decades. It is, therefore, necessary to assess the effect of global warming on the monsoon climate of India. A state-of-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, U.K. is applied over the South Asian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances. The PRECIS simulations at 50 km x 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100), for two socio-economic scenarios A2 and B2. The model skills are evaluated using observed precipitation and surface air temperature. The model has shown reasonably good skill in simulating seasonal monsoon rainfall, whereas cold bias is seen in surface air temperature especially in post-monsoon months. The typical monsoon features like monsoon trough, precipitation maxima over west coast and northeast India are well simulated by the model. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the quasi

  11. Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahowald, Natalie M.; Ward, Daniel S.; Doney, Scott C.; Hess, Peter G.; Randerson, James T.

    2017-09-01

    While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.

  12. Implications of polar ocean surface stratification changes on a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauch, Henning; Kandiano, Evgenia; Thibodeau, Benoit; Pedersen, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    In the North Polar oceans surface properties have a significant influence on regional climate development. Stratification and salinity in this area are not just strongly coupled, they directly affect North Atlantic deepwater production and, thus, the ventilation of the deep sea and global ocean circulation. Besides a direct feedback on surface heat transfer to the Polar North, the response of upper stratification in a crucial region such as the Nordic Seas to near-future hydrologic forcing as surface water in the polar ocean warms and freshens due to global temperature rise and glacier demise, is still largely unresolved. We paired bulk sediment δ15N isotopic signatures with planktic foraminiferal assemblages across three major interglacials, each of which could be viewed as an analogue of the present. The isotope vs. foraminifer comparison defines stratification-induced variations in nitrate utilization between and within all of these warm periods and signifies changes in the thickness of the mixed-layer throughout the previous interglacials. As the thickness directly controls the depth-level of Atlantic water inflow, the changes recorded here suggest that drastic variations in freshwater water input associated with each preceding glacial terminations caused the Atlantic water to flow at greater depth. Backed up by independent salinity reconstructions using hydrogen isotope composition in alkenones, an active involvement of both glacial ice sheet size and subsequent specific melting history on interglacial climate development is suggested. Although the results also call for caution when using older interglacials as future climate analogues, they do help to better understand the effect of freshwater input on climate-sensitive ocean sites. It is further indicated that any future increase in freshwater flux into the polar oceans would not necessarily stop by itself the poleward advection of Atlantic water.

  13. Hydrological Response of Alpine Wetlands to Climate Warming in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjiang Zhang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Alpine wetlands in the Tibetan Plateau (TP play a crucial role in the regional hydrological cycle due to their strong influence on surface ecohydrological processes; therefore, understanding how TP wetlands respond to climate change is essential for projecting their future condition and potential vulnerability. We investigated the hydrological responses of a large TP wetland complex to recent climate change, by combining multiple satellite observations and in-situ hydro-meteorological records. We found different responses of runoff production to regional warming trends among three basins with similar climate, topography and vegetation cover but different wetland proportions. The basin with larger wetland proportion (40.1% had a lower mean runoff coefficient (0.173 ± 0.006, and also showed increasingly lower runoff level (−3.9% year−1, p = 0.002 than the two adjacent basins. The satellite-based observations showed an increasing trend of annual non-frozen period, especially in the wetland-dominated region (2.64 day·year−1, p < 0.10, and a strong extension of vegetation growing-season (0.26–0.41 day·year−1, p < 0.10. Relatively strong increasing trends in evapotranspiration (ET (~1.00 mm·year−1, p < 0.01 and the vertical temperature gradient above ground surface (0.043 °C·year−1, p < 0.05 in wetland-dominant areas were documented from satellite-based ET observations and weather station records. These results indicate recent surface drying and runoff reduction of alpine wetlands, and their potential vulnerability to degradation with continued climate warming.

  14. Climate change affects low trophic level marine consumers: warming decreases copepod size and abundance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzke, Jessica; Ismar, Stefanie M H; Sommer, Ulrich

    2015-03-01

    Concern about climate change has re-ignited interest in universal ecological responses to temperature variations: (1) biogeographical shifts, (2) phenology changes, and (3) size shifts. In this study we used copepods as model organisms to study size responses to temperature because of their central role in the pelagic food web and because of the ontogenetic length constancy between molts, which facilitates the definition of size of distinct developmental stages. In order to test the expected temperature-induced shifts towards smaller body size and lower abundances under warming conditions, a mesocosm experiment using plankton from the Baltic Sea at three temperature levels (ambient, ambient +4 °C, ambient -4 °C) was performed in summer 2010. Overall copepod and copepodit abundances, copepod size at all life stages, and adult copepod size in particular, showed significant temperature effects. As expected, zooplankton peak abundance was lower in warm than in ambient treatments. Copepod size-at-immature stage significantly increased in cold treatments, while adult size significantly decreased in warm treatments.

  15. Dependence of Arctic climate on the latitudinal position of stationary waves and to high-latitudes surface warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yechul; Kang, Sarah M.; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2017-02-01

    Previous studies suggest large uncertainties in the stationary wave response under global warming. Here, we investigate how the Arctic climate responds to changes in the latitudinal position of stationary waves, and to high-latitudes surface warming that mimics the effect of Arctic sea ice loss under global warming. To generate stationary waves in an atmospheric model coupled to slab ocean, a series of experiments is performed where the thermal forcing with a zonal wavenumber-2 (with zero zonal-mean) is prescribed at the surface at different latitude bands in the Northern Hemisphere. When the stationary waves are generated in the subtropics, the cooling response dominates over the warming response in the lower troposphere due to cloud radiative effects. Then, the low-level baroclinicity is reduced in the subtropics, which gives rise to a poleward shift of the eddy driven jet, thereby inducing substantial cooling in the northern high latitudes. As the stationary waves are progressively generated at higher latitudes, the zonal-mean climate state gradually becomes more similar to the integration with no stationary waves. These differences in the mean climate affect the Arctic climate response to high-latitudes surface warming. Additional surface heating over the Arctic is imposed to the reference climates in which the stationary waves are located at different latitude bands. When the stationary waves are positioned at lower latitudes, the eddy driven jet is located at higher latitude, closer to the prescribed Arctic heating. As baroclinicity is more effectively perturbed, the jet shifts more equatorward that accompanies a larger reduction in the poleward eddy transport of heat and momentum. A stronger eddy-induced descending motion creates greater warming over the Arctic. Our study calls for a more accurate simulation of the present-day stationary wave pattern to enhance the predictability of the Arctic warming response in a changing climate.

  16. Tropical Climate Mean State and Variability during the Pliocene Warm Period (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravelo, A. C.; Ford, H. L.; Dekens, P. S.; White, S. M.; Griffith, E. M.

    2013-12-01

    Past studies have shown that the mean climate state during the Pliocene warm period, about 3 - 4 million years ago, differed from present day climate in several ways: global temperature was about 3-4 degrees C warmer, the tropical thermocline was warmer and/or deeper, and meridional and zonal sea surface temperature gradients were reduced due to warmer high latitude temperatures but tropical sea surface temperatures that were similar to today. One of the most striking features of the Pliocene warm period is the El Niño-like (El Padre) mean state of the tropical Pacific, which is thought to have far-field impacts. In this study, we present a synthesis of new and published tropical Pacific data, detailing the mean state and higher frequency variability (e.g., using orbital scale records and measurements made on single foraminifera shells), for the purpose of meeting two main goals. First, we highlight important characteristics of the El Padre mean state, which include average Indo-Pacific warm pool temperatures that were similar and east Pacific cold tongue temperatures and cross-Pacific subsurface temperatures that were warmer than today. Because much of the paleotemperature data comes from Mg/Ca ratios measured in planktonic foraminifera, the impact of possible changes in Mg/Ca of seawater on paleotemperature estimates is addressed. We conclude that Mg/Ca-derived temperature estimates could be adjusted by no more than about 1 degree in order to account for seawater chemistry changes. Second, by examining orbital variability and temperature distributions based on single foraminifera analyses, we evaluate whether the cumulative strength of the many feedbacks that are involved in the generation of climate variability may be impacted by the mean state. Data indicate that the amplitude of orbital variability in surface temperature, and possibly the amplitude of ENSO variability, was reduced during the warm Pliocene compared to today. On orbital timescales, the

  17. Potential Alternative Lower Global Warming Refrigerants for Air Conditioning in Hot Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Shrestha, Som S [ORNL; Shen, Bo [ORNL

    2017-01-01

    The earth continues to see record increase in temperatures and extreme weather conditions that is largely driven by anthropogenic emissions of warming gases such as carbon dioxide and other more potent greenhouse gases such as refrigerants. The cooperation of 188 countries in the Conference of the Parties in Paris 2015 (COP21) resulted in an agreement aimed to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2 C. A global phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) can prevent 0.5 C of warming by 2100. However, most of the countries in hot climates are considered as developing countries and as such are still using R-22 (a Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC)) as the baseline refrigerant and are currently undergoing a phase-out of R-22 which is controlled by current Montreal Protocol to R-410A and other HFC based refrigerants. These HFCs have significantly high Global Warming Potential (GWP) and might not perform as well as R-22 at high ambient temperature conditions. In this paper we present recent results on evaluating the performance of alternative lower GWP refrigerants for R-22 and R-410A for small residential mini-split air conditioners and large commercial packaged units. Results showed that several of the alternatives would provide adequate replacement for R-22 with minor system modification. For the R-410A system, results showed that some of the alternatives were almost drop-in ready with benefit in efficiency and/or capacity. One of the most promising alternatives for R-22 mini-split unit is propane (R-290) as it offers higher efficiency; however it requires compressor and some other minor system modification to maintain capacity and minimize flammability risk. Between the R-410A alternatives, R-32 appears to have a competitive advantage; however at the cost of higher compressor discharge temperature. With respect to the hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) blends, there existed a tradeoff in performance and system design

  18. Genetic and phenotypic trends of fertility traits for Holstein dairy population in warm and temperate climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabie Rahbar

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study was to investigate genetic and phenotypic trends for fertility traits in Holstein dairy population under warm and temperate climate. Fertility traits were: success in first service, gestation length, number of inseminations, insemination outcome, calving interval, calving birth weight and days open. The edited data set included up to 23,402 records from 9,486 cows. The mean and standard deviation for fertility traits were 0.32 ± 0.003, 278.2 ± 5.58, 2.73 ± 1.94,0.31 ± 0.001, 415.99 ± 79.62, 40.4 ± 6.08 and 140.36 ± 76.16 for success in first service, gestation length, number of inseminations, insemination outcome, calving interval, calving birth weight and days open, respectively. In general, there were decreasing genetic trends for all traits over the years. On the other hand, there were decreasing phenotypic trend for days open, calving interval, gestation length, number of inseminations and calving birth weight, but estimates of phenotypic trends were positive for success in first service and insemination outcome over the years. It was concluded decreased trend for days open, calving interval, gestation length, number of inseminations and calving birth weight and increased trend for success in first service and insemination outcome traits over time indicated that Holstein dairy producers in warm and temperate climate were successful in managing and improving in nutrition during 1999 to 2013.

  19. Warming climate extends dryness-controlled areas of terrestrial carbon sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Chuixiang; Wei, Suhua; Hendrey, George

    2014-01-01

    At biome-scale, terrestrial carbon uptake is controlled mainly by weather variability. Observational data from a global monitoring network indicate that the sensitivity of terrestrial carbon sequestration to mean annual temperature (T) breaks down at a threshold value of 16°C, above which terrestrial CO2 fluxes are controlled by dryness rather than temperature. Here we show that since 1948 warming climate has moved the 16°C T latitudinal belt poleward. Land surface area with T > 16°C and now subject to dryness control rather than temperature as the regulator of carbon uptake has increased by 6% and is expected to increase by at least another 8% by 2050. Most of the land area subjected to this warming is arid or semiarid with ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to drought and land degradation. In areas now dryness-controlled, net carbon uptake is ~27% lower than in areas in which both temperature and dryness (T 16°C has implications not only for positive feedback on climate change, but also for ecosystem integrity and land cover, particularly for pastoral populations in marginal lands. PMID:24980649

  20. Enhanced Brewer Dobson circulation reduces N2O warming potential under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kracher, Daniela; Reick, Christian; Manzini, Elisa; Schultz, Martin; Stein, Olaf

    2016-04-01

    One implication of climate change is an enhancement of the Brewer Dobson circulation (BDC) triggering the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere. This change in atmospheric dynamics will have effects on atmospheric constituents, especially those with stratospheric sinks such as ozone depleting substances (ODS) including nitrous oxide (N2O). N2O is the most important currently emitted ODS, and the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Under enhanced BDC, more N2O is transported from the troposphere into the stratosphere, reaching higher altitudes, resulting in an increased N2O sink and a decrease in N2O lifetime. Some aspects of the effect of an enhanced BDC on lifetimes of ODS have already been examined with focus on its implications for ozone. In this study, we examine the effect of a decreasing N2O lifetime in light of climate change. To this end we conduct idealized transient global warming simulations with ECHAM, the atmosphere component of the MPI Earth System Model. As we prescribe surface flux boundary conditions for N2O, we are able to examine further implications of an enhanced N2O sink on atmospheric abundance, which is an important factor for e.g. generating concentration scenarios. Due the idealized simulation setup, we derive findings that are scenario-independent and can easily be extended to other global warming scenarios.

  1. Historic Trends in U. S. Drought Forcing in a Warming Climate

    CERN Document Server

    Muschinski, T

    2014-01-01

    The mean North American and world climates have warmed significantly since the beginning of climatologically significant anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases in the 19th Century. It has been suggested that warming may increase the frequency or severity of droughts. We define and study the statistics of an aridity index that describes the precipitation forcing function of a drought, considering drought to be a season with low enough precipitation to be significant for agriculture. Our aridity index is a reciprocal function of the seasonal precipitation, which is more significant for agriculture than mean precipitation. Using NOAA data from sites in 13 diverse climate regimes in the 48 contiguous United States with time series running over the period 1940--1999 but including two data series from 1900 or 1910, and computing their decadal averages, we search for linear trends in their aridity indices. We find no linear trends significant at the $2\\sigma$ level. At five sites $3\\sigma$ upper bounds on any sy...

  2. A Song of Our Warming Planet: Using Music to Communicate Critical Concepts in Climate Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    St George, S.; Crawford, D.; Reubold, T.

    2014-12-01

    When climate science is communicated to the broader public, many of its key findings are shared in the form of conceptual diagrams or information-dense data graphics. In this collaboration, we applied a data sonification approach to express NASA's global temperature record as a musical composition for the cello. The resulting piece, which we titled 'A Song of Our Warming Planet', transformed 133 years of annual global temperature anomalies into a haunting, atonal melody that stretched across almost all of the instrument's range. Since its release in June 2013, the song has been featured by several national and international media outlets, including the New York Times, the Weather Channel, and National Public Radio, and its accompanying video has received more than 140,000 views from nearly every corner of the world. We are currently preparing a new composition for string quartet that will add a geographic dimension to describe both the pace and place of global warming. We believe the success of our initial sonification project is testament to the power of music to reach audiences who respond less enthusiastically to traditional methods used to communicate climate science. We also imagine this approach could be applied more broadly to allow students to create novel, visceral, and memorable encounters with other aspects of the geophysical sciences.

  3. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Zhao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071–2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  4. Response of a warm temperate peatland to Holocene climate change in northeastern Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Shanshan; Yu, Zicheng

    2011-05-01

    Studying boreal-type peatlands near the edge of their southern limit can provide insight into responses of boreal and sub-arctic peatlands to warmer climates. In this study, we investigated peatland history using multi-proxy records of sediment composition, plant macrofossil, pollen, and diatom analysis from a 14C-dated sediment core at Tannersville Bog in northeastern Pennsylvania, USA. Our results indicate that peat accumulation began with lake infilling of a glacial lake at ~ 9 ka as a rich fen dominated by brown mosses. It changed to a poor fen dominated by Cyperaceae (sedges) and Sphagnum (peat mosses) at ~ 1.4 ka and to a Sphagnum-dominated poor fen at ~ 200 cal yr BP (~ AD 1750). Apparent carbon accumulation rates increased from 13.4 to 101.2 g C m - 2 yr - 1 during the last 8000 yr, with a time-averaged mean of 27.3 g C m - 2 yr - 1 . This relatively high accumulation rate, compared to many northern peatlands, was likely caused by high primary production associated with a warmer and wetter temperate climate. This study implies that some northern peatlands can continue to serve as carbon sinks under a warmer and wetter climate, providing a negative feedback to climate warming.

  5. Functional traits predict relationship between plant abundance dynamic and long-term climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Elumeeva, Tatiana G; Onipchenko, Vladimir G; Shidakov, Islam I; Salpagarova, Fatima S; Khubiev, Anzor B; Tekeev, Dzhamal K; Cornelissen, Johannes H C

    2013-11-01

    Predicting climate change impact on ecosystem structure and services is one of the most important challenges in ecology. Until now, plant species response to climate change has been described at the level of fixed plant functional types, an approach limited by its inflexibility as there is much interspecific functional variation within plant functional types. Considering a plant species as a set of functional traits greatly increases our possibilities for analysis of ecosystem functioning and carbon and nutrient fluxes associated therewith. Moreover, recently assembled large-scale databases hold comprehensive per-species data on plant functional traits, allowing a detailed functional description of many plant communities on Earth. Here, we show that plant functional traits can be used as predictors of vegetation response to climate warming, accounting in our test ecosystem (the species-rich alpine belt of Caucasus mountains, Russia) for 59% of variability in the per-species abundance relation to temperature. In this mountain belt, traits that promote conservative leaf water economy (higher leaf mass per area, thicker leaves) and large investments in belowground reserves to support next year's shoot buds (root carbon content) were the best predictors of the species increase in abundance along with temperature increase. This finding demonstrates that plant functional traits constitute a highly useful concept for forecasting changes in plant communities, and their associated ecosystem services, in response to climate change.

  6. Warming the nursing education climate for traditional-age learners who are male.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell-Scriber, Marietta J

    2008-01-01

    For nurse educators to facilitate student learning and the achievement of desired cognitive, affective, and psychomotor outcomes, they need to be competent in recognizing the influence of gender, experience, and other factors on teaching and learning. A study was conducted in one academic institution to describe how traditional-age male learners' perceptions of the nursing education climate compare to perceptions of female learners. Interviews were conducted with a sample of four male and four female learners. Additional data from interviews with nurse educators, classroom observations, and a review of textbooks provided breadth and depth to their perceptions. Findings support a nursing education climate that is cooler to traditional-age male learners and warmer to traditional-age female learners. The main cooling factor for men was caused by nurse educators' characteristics and unsupportive behaviors. Additional factors inside and outside the education environment contributed to a cooler climate for the male learners. Based on these findings, strategies for nurse educators to warm the education climate for traditional-age male learners are presented.

  7. Native bees buffer the negative impact of climate warming on honey bee pollination of watermelon crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rader, Romina; Reilly, James; Bartomeus, Ignasi; Winfree, Rachael

    2013-10-01

    If climate change affects pollinator-dependent crop production, this will have important implications for global food security because insect pollinators contribute to production for 75% of the leading global food crops. We investigate whether climate warming could result in indirect impacts upon crop pollination services via an overlooked mechanism, namely temperature-induced shifts in the diurnal activity patterns of pollinators. Using a large data set on bee pollination of watermelon crops, we predict how pollination services might change under various climate change scenarios. Our results show that under the most extreme IPCC scenario (A1F1), pollination services by managed honey bees are expected to decline by 14.5%, whereas pollination services provided by most native, wild taxa are predicted to increase, resulting in an estimated aggregate change in pollination services of +4.5% by 2099. We demonstrate the importance of native biodiversity in buffering the impacts of climate change, because crop pollination services would decline more steeply without the native, wild pollinators. More generally, our study provides an important example of how biodiversity can stabilize ecosystem services against environmental change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Climate transformation to warm-humid and its effect on river runoff in the source region of the Yellow River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YongChao Lan; HuiJun Jin; ChengFang La; Jun Wen; Jie Song; JinPeng Liu

    2014-01-01

    The change characteristics and trends of the regional climate in the source region of the Yellow River, and the response of runoff to climate change, are analyzed based on observational data of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff at 10 main hydrological and weather stations in the region. Our results show that a strong signal of climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the western parts of northwestern China (Xinjiang) and the western Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province occurred in the late 1980s, and a same signal of climate change occurred in the mid-2000s in the source region of the Yellow River located in the eastern part of northwestern China. This climate changeover has led to a rapid increase in rainfall and stream runoff in the latter region. In most of the years since 2004 the average annual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River has been greater than the long-term average annual value, and after 2007 the runoff measured at all of the hydrologic sections on the main channel of the Yellow River in the source region has also consistently exceeded the long-term average annual because of rainfall increase. It is difficult to determine the prospects of future climate change until additional observations and research are conducted on the rate and temporal and spatial extents of climate change in the region. Nevertheless, we predict that the climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the source region of the Yellow River is very likely to be in the decadal time scale, which means a warming and rainy climate in the source region of the Yellow River will continue in the coming decades.

  9. Warming Climate and Changing Societies - a Challenge or an Opportunity for Reindeer Herding?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Käyhkö, J.; Horstkotte, T.; Kivinen, S.; Vehmas, J.; Oksanen, L.; Forbes, B. C.; Johansen, B.; Jepsen, J. U.; Markkola, A.; Pulliainen, J.; Olofsson, J.; Oksanen, T.; Utsi, T. A.; Korpimäki, E.; Menard, C.; Ericson, L.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic region will warm more rapidly than the global mean, influencing dramatically the northern ecosystems. Simultaneously, our societies transform towards urbanized, highly educated, service-based culture, where a decreasing population will gain its livelihood from primary production. We study various ecosystem interactions in a changing climate and integrate these with reindeer husbandry and the indigenous Sámi culture dependent on it1. Potential climate impacts include the transformation of arctic-alpine tundra to dense scrubland with conceivable consequences to reindeer husbandry, but also global warming due to decreasing albedo. The social-ecological system (SES) of reindeer husbandry includes administrative and ecological processes that do not always correspond (Figure 1). Consequently, management priorities and administration may conflict with local social and ecological processes, bringing about risks of environmental degradation, loss of biodiversity and defeat of traditional livelihoods. We hypothesize the plausibility to support the indigenous reindeer herding livelihood against rapid external changes by utilizing the migratory reindeer grazing system of the Sámi as a management tool for sustaining the high-albedo tundra and mitigating global warming. Our first-of-a-kind satellite-based high resolution vegetation map covering Northern Fennoscandia allows detailed management plans. Our ecological research demonstrates the important role of herbivory on arctic vegetation communities. Interactive workshops with reindeer herders offer indigenous knowledge of state and changes of the ecosystems, and reflect the threats and expectations of the herders. We are currently building models of the complex social-ecological system of Northern Fennoscandia and will report the first findings of the exercise. 1 www.ncoetundra.utu.fi Figure 1. The scales of administrative and ecological processes do not always coincide. This may bring about challenges in managing

  10. Higher precision estimates of regional polar warming by ensemble regression of climate model projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bracegirdle, Thomas J. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Stephenson, David B. [University of Exeter, Mathematics Research Institute, Exeter (United Kingdom); NCAS-Climate, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2012-12-15

    This study presents projections of twenty-first century wintertime surface temperature changes over the high-latitude regions based on the third Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) multi-model ensemble. The state-dependence of the climate change response on the present day mean state is captured using a simple yet robust ensemble linear regression model. The ensemble regression approach gives different and more precise estimated mean responses compared to the ensemble mean approach. Over the Arctic in January, ensemble regression gives less warming than the ensemble mean along the boundary between sea ice and open ocean (sea ice edge). Most notably, the results show 3 C less warming over the Barents Sea ({proportional_to} 7 C compared to {proportional_to} 10 C). In addition, the ensemble regression method gives projections that are 30 % more precise over the Sea of Okhostk, Bering Sea and Labrador Sea. For the Antarctic in winter (July) the ensemble regression method gives 2 C more warming over the Southern Ocean close to the Greenwich Meridian ({proportional_to} 7 C compared to {proportional_to} 5 C). Projection uncertainty was almost half that of the ensemble mean uncertainty over the Southern Ocean between 30 W to 90 E and 30 % less over the northern Antarctic Peninsula. The ensemble regression model avoids the need for explicit ad hoc weighting of models and exploits the whole ensemble to objectively identify overly influential outlier models. Bootstrap resampling shows that maximum precision over the Southern Ocean can be obtained with ensembles having as few as only six climate models. (orig.)

  11. Asian climate change under 1.5–4 °C warming targets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Xu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5–4 °C, and further compares the differences between 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 °C, 3.0 °C, 4.6 °C, and 6.0 °C at warming targets of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 °C target, compared with the climate under the 2 °C target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5–1 °C over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%–20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%–15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming targets, the probability of very hot weather (anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation, extremely hot weather (anomalies greater than 3σ, and extremely heavy precipitation (anomalies greater than 3σ occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period (1861–1900.

  12. Analysing regional climate change in Africa in a 1.5 °C global warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Torsten; Haensler, Andreas; Jacob, Daniela

    2017-04-01

    At the 21st session of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, a reaffirmation to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio-economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. Hence, providing a detailed analysis of the projected climate changes in a 1.5 °C global warming scenario will allow the African society to undertake measures for adaptation in order to mitigate potential negative consequences. In order to provide such climate change information, the existing CORDEX Africa ensemble for RCP2.6 scenario simulations has systematically been increased by conducting additional REMO simulations using data from various global circulation models (GCMs) as lateral boundary conditions. Based on this ensemble, which now consists of eleven CORDEX Africa RCP2.6 regional climate model simulations from three RCMs (forced with different GCMs), various temperature and precipitation indices such as number of cold/hot days and nights, duration of the rainy season, the amount of rainfall in the rainy seasons and the number of dry spells have been calculated for a 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The applied method to define the 1.5 °C global warming period has been already applied in the IMPACT2C project. In our presentation, we will discuss the analysis of the climate indices in a 1.5 °C global warming world for the CORDEX-Africa region. Amongst presenting the magnitude of projected changes, we will also address the question for selected indices if the changes projected in a 1.5 °C global warming scenario are already larger than the climate variability and we will also draw links to the changes projected under a more extreme scenario.

  13. Plants, Birds and Butterflies: Short-Term Responses of Species Communities to Climate Warming Vary by Taxon and with Altitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

    2014-01-01

    As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003–2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world. PMID:24416144

  14. Plants, birds and butterflies: short-term responses of species communities to climate warming vary by taxon and with altitude.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Roth

    Full Text Available As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003-2010, we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world.

  15. Plants, birds and butterflies: short-term responses of species communities to climate warming vary by taxon and with altitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

    2014-01-01

    As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003-2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world.

  16. Climate warming may facilitate invasion of the exotic shrub Lantana camara.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiaoying Zhang

    Full Text Available Plant species show different responses to the elevated temperatures that are resulting from global climate change, depending on their ecological and physiological characteristics. The highly invasive shrub Lantana camara occurs between the latitudes of 35 °N and 35 °S. According to current and future climate scenarios predicted by the CLIMEX model, climatically suitable areas for L. camara are projected to contract globally, despite expansions in some areas. The objective of this study was to test those predictions, using a pot experiment in which branch cuttings were grown at three different temperatures (22 °C, 26 °C and 30 °C. We hypothesized that warming would facilitate the invasiveness of L. camara. In response to rising temperatures, the total biomass of L. camara did increase. Plants allocated more biomass to stems and enlarged their leaves more at 26 °C and 30 °C, which promoted light capture and assimilation. They did not appear to be stressed by higher temperatures, in fact photosynthesis and assimilation were enhanced. Using lettuce (Lactuca sativa as a receptor plant in a bioassay experiment, we also tested the phytotoxicity of L. camara leachate at different temperatures. All aqueous extracts from fresh leaves significantly inhibited the germination and seedling growth of lettuce, and the allelopathic effects became stronger with increasing temperature. Our results provide key evidence that elevated temperature led to significant increases in growth along with physiological and allelopathic effects, which together indicate that global warming facilitates the invasion of L. camara.

  17. Climate warming and agricultural stressors interact to determine stream macroinvertebrate community dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piggott, Jeremy J; Townsend, Colin R; Matthaei, Christoph D

    2015-05-01

    Global climate change is likely to modify the ecological consequences of currently acting stressors, but potentially important interactions between climate warming and land-use related stressors remain largely unknown. Agriculture affects streams and rivers worldwide, including via nutrient enrichment and increased fine sediment input. We manipulated nutrients (simulating agricultural run-off) and deposited fine sediment (simulating agricultural erosion) (two levels each) and water temperature (eight levels, 0-6°C above ambient) simultaneously in 128 streamside mesocosms to determine the individual and combined effects of the three stressors on macroinvertebrate community dynamics (community composition and body size structure of benthic, drift and insect emergence assemblages). All three stressors had pervasive individual effects, but in combination often produced additive or antagonistic outcomes. Changes in benthic community composition showed a complex interplay among habitat quality (with or without sediment), resource availability (with or without nutrient enrichment) and the behavioural/physiological tendency to drift or emerge as temperature rose. The presence of sediment and raised temperature both resulted in a community of smaller organisms. Deposited fine sediment strongly increased the propensity to drift. Stressor effects were most prominent in the benthic assemblage, frequently reflected by opposite patterns in individuals quitting the benthos (in terms of their propensity to drift or emerge). Of particular importance is that community measures of stream health routinely used around the world (taxon richness, EPT richness and diversity) all showed complex three-way interactions, with either a consistently stronger temperature response or a reversal of its direction when one or both agricultural stressors were also in operation. The negative effects of added fine sediment, which were often stronger at raised temperatures, suggest that streams already

  18. Climate Warming May Facilitate Invasion of the Exotic Shrub Lantana camara

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiaoying; Zhang, Yunchun; Peng, Shaolin; Zobel, Kristjan

    2014-01-01

    Plant species show different responses to the elevated temperatures that are resulting from global climate change, depending on their ecological and physiological characteristics. The highly invasive shrub Lantana camara occurs between the latitudes of 35°N and 35°S. According to current and future climate scenarios predicted by the CLIMEX model, climatically suitable areas for L. camara are projected to contract globally, despite expansions in some areas. The objective of this study was to test those predictions, using a pot experiment in which branch cuttings were grown at three different temperatures (22°C, 26°C and 30°C). We hypothesized that warming would facilitate the invasiveness of L. camara. In response to rising temperatures, the total biomass of L. camara did increase. Plants allocated more biomass to stems and enlarged their leaves more at 26°C and 30°C, which promoted light capture and assimilation. They did not appear to be stressed by higher temperatures, in fact photosynthesis and assimilation were enhanced. Using lettuce (Lactuca sativa) as a receptor plant in a bioassay experiment, we also tested the phytotoxicity of L. camara leachate at different temperatures. All aqueous extracts from fresh leaves significantly inhibited the germination and seedling growth of lettuce, and the allelopathic effects became stronger with increasing temperature. Our results provide key evidence that elevated temperature led to significant increases in growth along with physiological and allelopathic effects, which together indicate that global warming facilitates the invasion of L. camara. PMID:25184224

  19. Effects of climate warming on polar bears: a review of the evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E

    2012-09-01

    Climate warming is causing unidirectional changes to annual patterns of sea ice distribution, structure, and freeze-up. We summarize evidence that documents how loss of sea ice, the primary habitat of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), negatively affects their long-term survival. To maintain viable subpopulations, polar bears depend on sea ice as a platform from which to hunt seals for long enough each year to accumulate sufficient energy (fat) to survive periods when seals are unavailable. Less time to access to prey, because of progressively earlier breakup in spring, when newly weaned ringed seal (Pusa hispida) young are available, results in longer periods of fasting, lower body condition, decreased access to denning areas, fewer and smaller cubs, lower survival of cubs as well as bears of other age classes and, finally, subpopulation decline toward eventual extirpation. The chronology of climate-driven changes will vary between subpopulations, with quantifiable negative effects being documented first in the more southerly subpopulations, such as those in Hudson Bay or the southern Beaufort Sea. As the bears' body condition declines, more seek alternate food resources so the frequency of conflicts between bears and humans increases. In the most northerly areas, thick multiyear ice, through which little light penetrates to stimulate biological growth on the underside, will be replaced by annual ice, which facilitates greater productivity and may create habitat more favorable to polar bears over continental shelf areas in the short term. If the climate continues to warm and eliminate sea ice as predicted, polar bears will largely disappear from the southern portions of their range by mid-century. They may persist in the northern Canadian Arctic Islands and northern Greenland for the foreseeable future, but their long-term viability, with a much reduced global population size in a remnant of their former range, is uncertain. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassou, Christophe; Cattiaux, Julien

    2016-06-01

    Temperatures over Europe are largely driven by the strength and inland penetration of the oceanic westerly flow. The wind influence depends on season: blocked westerlies, linked to high-pressure anomalies over Scandinavia, induce cold episodes in winter but warm conditions in summer. Here, we propose to define the onset of the two seasons as the calendar day on which the daily circulation/temperature relationship switches sign. We have assessed this meteorologically based metric using several observational data sets and we provide evidence for an earlier onset of the summer date by ~10 days between the 1960s and 2000s. Results from a climate model show that internal variability alone cannot explain this calendar advance. Rather, the earlier onset can be partly attributed to anthropogenic forcings. The modification of the zonal advection due to earlier disappearance of winter snow over Eastern Europe, which reduces the degree to which climate has continental properties, is mainly responsible for the present-day and near-future advance of the summer date in Western Europe. Our findings are in line with phenological-based trends (earlier spring events) reported for many living species over Europe, for which we provide an alternative interpretation to the traditionally evoked local warming effect. Based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, which assumes that greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the twenty-first century, a summer advance of ~20 days compared with pre-industrial climate is expected by 2100, whereas no clear signal arises for winter onset.

  1. Short term response of a peatland to warming and drought - climate manipulation experiment in W Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juszczak, Radosław; Chojnicki, Bogdan; Urbaniak, Marek; Leśny, Jacek; Silvennoinen, Hanna; Lamentowicz, Mariusz; Basińska, Anna; Gąbka, Maciej; Stróżecki, Marcin; Samson, Mateusz; Łuców, Dominika; Józefczyk, Damian; Hoffmann, Mathias; Olejnik, Janusz

    2016-04-01

    Central European peatlands are highly vulnerable as potential sources of carbon (C) to the atmosphere under anticipated climate changes, namely warming and drought (Fenner & Freeman 2011). We carried out a field manipulation experiment at Rzecin peatland in Poland to assess how those changes impact carbon balance, vegetation and water chemistry. The field site consists of three times replicated treatments (control, CO; simulated warming, W; prolonged drought, D and warming & drought, W+D). Temperature (T) was increased year around with infrared heaters (400W × 4 per site, approx. 60 Wṡm-2 addition of LW radiation, Kimball 2005) and precipitation was reduced with automatic curtain during growth seasons at night. The manipulation was successful yielding up to 0.4 oC and 1.0 oC T increases in air (30 cm height) and soil (5 cm depth), respectively, as well as a 35 % lower precipitation (in 2015). To study the C exchange we developed an automatic mobile platform for measuring CO2/CH4/H2O fluxes (LGR) as well as for 13CO2 and 13CH4 fluxes (PICARRO CRDS G2201-i) with dynamic ecosystem chambers (for NEE and Reco) and for simultaneous measurements of surface optical properties. Gap filling of the fluxes was done according to Hoffmann et al. 2015. In the very dry 2015, Rzecin peatland was a net source of CO2to the atmosphere (80 gCṡm-2yr-1). Warming and drought considerably diminished the source strength (7 gCṡm-2yr-1at the W+D site), due to lower cumulative respiration (Reco the smallest, 610 gC m-2yr-1, at W+D site). The highest CO2 emissions were measured from the site that was only warmed (W site, Reco 680 gCṡm-2yr-1), emphasizing the importance of drought in inhibiting respiration. Temperature increase also provoked the productivity (highest GPP at W site, -620 gCṡm-2yr-1), while drought yielded the lowest productivity (lowest GPP at D site, -550 gCṡm-2yr-1). Different vegetation parameters further support the C exchange estimates. Generally, warmer

  2. Climate adaptation is not enough: warming does not facilitate success of southern tundra plant populations in the high Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjorkman, Anne D; Vellend, Mark; Frei, Esther R; Henry, Gregory H R

    2017-04-01

    Rapidly rising temperatures are expected to cause latitudinal and elevational range shifts as species track their optimal climate north and upward. However, a lack of adaptation to environmental conditions other than climate - for example photoperiod, biotic interactions, or edaphic conditions - might limit the success of immigrants in a new location despite hospitable climatic conditions. Here, we present one of the first direct experimental tests of the hypothesis that warmer temperatures at northern latitudes will confer a fitness advantage to southern immigrants relative to native populations. As rates of warming in the Arctic are more than double the global average, understanding the impacts of warming in Arctic ecosystems is especially urgent. We established experimentally warmed and nonwarmed common garden plots at Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic with seeds of two forb species (Oxyria digyna and Papaver radicatum) originating from three to five populations at different latitudes across the Arctic. We found that plants from the local populations generally had higher survival and obtained a greater maximum size than foreign individuals, regardless of warming treatment. Phenological traits varied with latitude of the source population, such that southern populations demonstrated substantially delayed leaf-out and senescence relative to northern populations. Our results suggest that environmental conditions other than temperature may influence the ability of foreign populations and species to establish at more northerly latitudes as the climate warms, potentially leading to lags in northward range shifts for some species.

  3. The climate response of the Indo-Pacific warm pool to glacial sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Nezio, Pedro N.; Timmermann, Axel; Tierney, Jessica E.; Jin, Fei-Fei; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Rosenbloom, Nan; Mapes, Brian; Neale, Rich; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Montenegro, Alvaro

    2016-06-01

    Growing climate proxy evidence suggests that changes in sea level are important drivers of tropical climate change on glacial-interglacial timescales. These paleodata suggest that rainfall patterns over the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) are highly sensitive to the landmass configuration of the Maritime Continent and that lowered sea level contributed to large-scale drying during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, approximately 21,000 years B.P.). Using the Community Earth System Model Version 1.2 (CESM1), we investigate the mechanisms by which lowered sea level influenced the climate of the IPWP during the LGM. The CESM1 simulations show that, in agreement with previous hypotheses, changes in atmospheric circulation are initiated by the exposure of the Sunda and Sahul shelves. Ocean dynamical processes amplify the changes in atmospheric circulation by increasing the east-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean. The coupled mechanism driving this response is akin to the Bjerknes feedback and results in a large-scale climatic reorganization over the Indian Ocean with impacts extending from east Africa to the western tropical Pacific. Unlike exposure of the Sunda shelf, exposure of Sahul shelf and the associated changes in surface albedo play a key role because of the positive feedback. This mechanism could explain the pattern of dry (wet) eastern (western) Indian Ocean identified in climate proxies and LGM simulations. However, this response also requires a strengthened SST gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean, a pattern that is not evident in marine paleoreconstructions. Strategies to resolve this issue are discussed.

  4. Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies: application to a regulated lake system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A probabilistic assessment of climate change and related impacts should consider a large range of potential future climate scenarios. State-of-the-art climate models, especially coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and Regional Climate Models (RCMs cannot, however, be used to simulate such a large number of scenarios. This paper presents a methodology for obtaining future climate scenarios through a simple scaling methodology. The projections of several key meteorological variables obtained from a few regional climate model runs are scaled, based on different global-mean warming projections drawn in a probability distribution of future global-mean warming. The resulting climate change scenarios are used to drive a hydrological and a water management model to analyse the potential climate change impacts on a water resources system. This methodology enables a joint quantification of the climate change impact uncertainty induced by the global-mean warming scenarios and the regional climate response. It is applied to a case study in Switzerland, a water resources system formed by three interconnected lakes located in the Jura Mountains. The system behaviour is simulated for a control period (1961–1990 and a future period (2070–2099. The potential climate change impacts are assessed through a set of impact indices related to different fields of interest (hydrology, agriculture and ecology. The results obtained show that future climate conditions will have a significant influence on the performance of the system and that the uncertainty induced by the inter-RCM variability will contribute to much of the uncertainty of the prediction of the total impact. These CSRs cover the area considered in the 2001–2004 EU funded project SWURVE.

  5. Foreword: The dynamics of change in Alaska’s boreal forests: Resilience and vulnerability in response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Anthony; Chapin, F. Stuart; Ruess, Roger W.

    2016-01-01

    Long-term research by the Bonanza Creek (BNZ) Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program has documented natural patterns of interannual and successional variability of the boreal forest in interior Alaska against which we can detect changes in system behavior. Between 2004 and 2010 the BNZ LTER program focused on understanding the dynamics of change through studying the resilience and vulnerability of Alaska's boreal forest in response to climate warming. The overarching question in this endeavor has been “How are boreal ecosystems responding, both gradually and abruptly, to climate warming, and what new landscape patterns are emerging?”

  6. Nutritional requirements of sheep, goats and cattle in warm climates: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salah, N; Sauvant, D; Archimède, H

    2014-09-01

    The objective of the study was to update energy and protein requirements of growing sheep, goats and cattle in warm areas through a meta-analysis study of 590 publications. Requirements were expressed on metabolic live weight (MLW=LW0.75) and LW1 basis. The maintenance requirements for energy were 542.64 and 631.26 kJ ME/kg LW0.75 for small ruminants and cattle, respectively, and the difference was significant (Prequirement for 1 g gain was 24.3 kJ ME without any significant effect of species. Relative to LW0.75, there was no difference among genotypes intra-species in terms of ME requirement for maintenance and gain. However, small ruminants of warm and tropical climate appeared to have higher ME requirements for maintenance relative to live weight (LW) compared with temperate climate ones and cattle. Maintenance requirements for protein were estimated via two approaches. For these two methods, the data in which retained nitrogen (RN) was used cover the same range of variability of observations. The regression of digestible CP intake (DCPI, g/kg LW0.75) against RN (g/kg LW0.75) indicated that DCP requirements are significantly higher in sheep (3.36 g/kg LW0.75) than in goats (2.38 g/kg LW0.75), with cattle intermediate (2.81 g/kg LW0.75), without any significant difference in the quantity of DCPI/g retained CP (RCP) (40.43). Regressing metabolisable protein (MP) or minimal digestible protein in the intestine (PDImin) against RCP showed that there was no difference between species and genotypes, neither for the intercept (maintenance=3.51 g/kg LW0.75 for sheep and goat v. 4.35 for cattle) nor for the slope (growth=0.60 g MP/g RCP). The regression of DCP against ADG showed that DCP requirements did not differ among species or genotypes. These new feeding standards are derived from a wider range of nutritional conditions compared with existing feeding standards as they are based on a larger database. The standards seem to be more appropriate for ruminants in warm and

  7. Forest Dynamics and Their Phenological Response to Climate Warming in the Khingan Mountains, Northeastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohuan Yang

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The Khingan Mountain region, the most important and typical natural foci of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE in China, is the largest and northernmost forest area and the one more sensitive to climate change. Taking this region as the study area, we investigated the spatio-temporal dynamics of deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF and its phenology changes in relation to climate change and elevation. Based on MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI time series over the period of 2001 to 2009, the start-of-season (SOS, length-of-season (LOS and another two vegetation variables (seasonal amplitude (SA and integrated EVI (SI were derived. Over the past decade, the DBF in Khingan Mountains has generally degraded and over 65% of DBF has experienced negative SA and SI trends. Earlier trends in SOS and longer trends in LOS for DBF were observed, and these trends were mainly caused by climate warming. In addition, results from our analysis also indicated that the effects of temperature on DBF phenology were elevation dependent. The magnitude of advancement in SOS and extension in LOS with temperature increase significantly increased along a raising elevation gradient.

  8. Human disturbance and upward expansion of plants in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dainese, Matteo; Aikio, Sami; Hulme, Philip E.; Bertolli, Alessio; Prosser, Filippo; Marini, Lorenzo

    2017-08-01

    Climate change is expected to trigger an upward expansion of plants in mountain regions and, although there is strong evidence that many native species have already shifted their distributions to higher elevations, little is known regarding how fast non-native species might respond to climate change. By analysing 131,394 occurrence records of 1,334 plant species collected over 20 years in the European Alps, we found that non-natives are spreading upwards approximately twice as fast as natives. Whereas the spread of natives was enhanced by traits favouring longer dispersal distances, this was not the case for non-natives. This was due to the non-native species pool already being strongly biased towards species that had traits facilitating spread. A large proportion of native and non-native species seemed to be able to spread upwards faster than the current velocity of climate change. In particular, long-distance dispersal events and proximity to roads proved to be key drivers for the observed rapid spread. Our findings highlight that invasions by non-native species into native alpine communities are a potentially significant additional pressure on these vulnerable ecosystems that are already likely to suffer dramatic vegetation changes with ongoing warming and increasing human activity in mountain regions.

  9. Climate warming and humans played different roles in triggering Late Quaternary extinctions in east and west Eurasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xinru; Zhang, Zhibin

    2017-03-29

    Climate change and humans are proposed as the two key drivers of total extinction of many large mammals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, but disentangling their relative roles remains challenging owing to a lack of quantitative evaluation of human impact and climate-driven distribution changes on the extinctions of these large mammals in a continuous temporal-spatial dimension. Here, our analyses showed that temperature change had significant effects on mammoth (genus Mammuthus), rhinoceros (Rhinocerotidae), horse (Equidae) and deer (Cervidae). Rapid global warming was the predominant factor driving the total extinction of mammoths and rhinos in frigid zones from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. Humans showed significant, negative effects on extirpations of the four mammalian taxa, and were the predominant factor causing the extinction or major extirpations of rhinos and horses. Deer survived both rapid climate warming and extensive human impacts. Our study indicates that both the current rates of warming and range shifts of species are much faster than those from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. Our results provide new insight into the extinction of Late Quaternary megafauna by demonstrating taxon-, period- and region-specific differences in extinction drivers of climate change and human disturbances, and some implications about the extinction risk of animals by recent and ongoing climate warming.

  10. Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-11-15

    In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

  11. Marine Ecosystem Response to Rapid Climate Warming on the West Antarctic Peninsula (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducklow, H.; Baker, K. S.; Doney, S. C.; Fraser, B.; Martinson, D. G.; Meredith, M. P.; Montes-Hugo, M. A.; Sailley, S.; Schofield, O.; Sherrell, R. M.; Stammerjohn, S. E.; Steinberg, D. K.

    2010-12-01

    The Palmer, Antarctica LTER builds on meteorological, ocean color and seabird observations since the late 1970s. It occupies annually in summer a regional-scale grid extending 700 km northward from Charcot Island to Anvers Island, and 200 km cross-shelf from the coast to the shelfbreak. In addition to routine CTD profiles and zooplankton tows throughout the grid, the observing system also includes Slocum Glider surveys and thermistor moorings. Geophysical changes include +6C atmospheric warming in winter since 1950, a 20% increase in heat content over the continental shelf since 1990, a surface ocean warming of +1C since 1950, an 83-day reduction in sea ice duration (advance 48 days later, retreat 35 days earlier) over the greater southern Bellingshausen Sea region from 1979-2007, intensification of westerly winds and differential changes in cloudiness. In response to these large changes in the regional climate, the marine ecosystem of the western Peninsula is changing at all trophic levels from diatoms to penguins. Ocean color indicates differential changes in phytoplankton stocks in response to regional decreases in sea ice cover. Surface chlorophyll has declined 89% in the north and increased 67% in the south. Antarctic krill and salps have declined and increased in our study area, respectively. Penguin diet sampling suggests changes in populations or distributions of the Antarctic Silverfish in the Anvers Island vicinity, possibly in response to ocean warming. Adélie penguins have declined 75% from 15000 to penguin breeding populations in the Anvers Island vicinity of the West Antarctic Peninsula

  12. Climate variability of heat wave and future warming scenario in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chuan-yao

    2017-04-01

    In this study, the heat wave definition and climate variability of HW days according to air temperature are conducted in order to find out the local threshold and variation trends in the past 40 years (1971-2010), in three major cities, Taipei (TP), Taichung (TC) and Kaohsiung (KH) in Taiwan. As for Taiwan's high humidity atmospheric condition, the heat stress index wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is also employed in the past (2003-2012) and future warming scenario in 2075-2099. The simulation WBGT in the past (2003-2012) and future warming projection (2075-2099) are deduced from the results of ECHAM5/MPIOM-WRF (ECW) dynamic downscaling 5-km resolution in these three cities. Box plot analyzing shows the differences between observed and simulated WBGT distribution at 25%, 50% and 75% percentiles are all within 0.7 °C in 2003-2012. Even the extreme values, the differences are all within 0.9 °C. In other words, the ranges of the WBGT variation from observations are reasonably captured by the ECW in three cities. According to the good performance of ECW in the WBGT simulation, the projection of future WBGT in these three cities has been evaluated under IPCC A1B scenario by using ECW. It is estimated that nearly 50% of the days in summer (July and August) are all at the level of danger (WBGT>31 °C ) at the period 2075-2099.It is a significant increase because they are only 10.74%, 4.22% and 11.28% above this level in the past in 2003-2012 in TP, TC and KH, respectively. From public health point of view, the impacts are huge and worthy to pay attention under the global warming trend.

  13. Including the biogeochemical impacts of deforestation increases projected warming of climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Catherine; Monks, Sarah; Spracklen, Dominick; Arnold, Stephen; Forster, Piers; Rap, Alexandru; Carslaw, Kenneth; Chipperfield, Martyn; Reddington, Carly; Wilson, Christopher

    2016-04-01

    Forests cover almost one third of the Earth's land area and their distribution is changing as a result of human activities. The presence, and removal, of forests affects the climate in many ways, with the net climate impact of deforestation dependent upon the relative strength of these effects (Betts, 2000; Bala et al., 2007; Davin and de Noblet-Ducoudré, 2010). In addition to controlling the surface albedo and exchanging carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), which lead to the formation of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and alter the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, affecting ozone (O3) and methane (CH4) concentrations. In this work, we combine a land-surface model with a chemical transport model, a global aerosol model, and a radiative transfer model to compare several radiative impacts of idealised deforestation scenarios in the present day. We find that the simulated reduction in biogenic SOA production, due to complete global deforestation, exerts a positive combined aerosol radiative forcing (RF) of between +308.0 and +362.7 mW m-2; comprised of a direct radiative effect of between +116.5 and +165.0 mW m-2, and a first aerosol indirect effect of between +191.5 and +197.7 mW m-2. We find that the reduction in O3 exerts a negative RF of -150.7 mW m-2 and the reduction in CH4 results in a negative RF of -76.2 mWm-2. When the impacts on biogenic SOA, O3 and CH4 are combined, global deforestation exerts an overall positive RF of between +81.1 and +135.9 mW m-2 through changes to short-lived climate forcers (SLCF). Taking these additional biogeochemical impacts into account increases the net positive RF of complete global deforestation, due to changes in CO2 and surface albedo, by 7-11%. Overall, our work suggests that deforestation has a stronger warming impact on climate than previously thought. References: Bala, G. et al., 2007. Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects

  14. Dielectric/Ag/dielectric coated energy-efficient glass windows for warm climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durrani, S.M.A.; Khawaja, E.E. [King Fahd Univ. of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran (Saudi Arabia). Center for Applied Physical Sciences; Al Shukri, A.M.; Al Kuhaili, M.F. [King Fahd Univ. of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran (Saudi Arabia). Dept. of Physics

    2004-09-01

    Energy-efficient glass windows for warm climates were designed and fabricated using a three-layer system of dielectric/metal/dielectric (D/M/D) on glass. Silver was used as a metal layer. The design parameters for optimum performance of D/M/D on glass-systems for dielectrics, having refractive indices in the range 1.6-2.4, were obtained by numerical calculations. Based on these parameters, D/M/D films on glass substrates were deposited using dielectrics such as TiO{sub 2}, WO{sub 3}, and ZnS. Upon testing these coated glass windows, it was concluded that the window with any of the three dielectrics performed well and the efficiencies of the windows with different dielectrics were nearly the same. [Author].

  15. Glacier variations and climate warming and drying in the central Himalayas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Jiawen; QIN Dahe; KANG Shichang; HOU Shugui; PU Jianchen; JING Zhefan

    2004-01-01

    Repeat measurements of glacier terminus positions show that glaciers in the central Himalayas have been in a continuous retreat situation in the past decades. The average retreat rate is 5.5-8.7 m/a in Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) since the 1960s and 6.4 m/a in Mt. Xixiabangma since the 1980s. In recent years, the retreat rate is increasing. Ice core studies revealed that the accumulation rate of glaciers has a fluctuating decrease trend in the last century with a rapid decrease in the 1960s and a relatively steady low value afterwards. Meteorological station record indicates that the annual mean temperature has a slow increase trend but summer temperature had a larger increase in the past 30 a. All these suggest that the glacier retreat results from precipitation decrease in combination with temperature increase, and hence glacier shrinkage in this region will speed up if the climatic warming and drying continues.

  16. Should flood regimes change in a warming climate? The role of antecedent moisture conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldemeskel, Fitsum; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-07-01

    Assessing changes to flooding is important for designing new and redesigning existing infrastructure to withstand future climates. While there is speculation that floods are likely to intensify in the future, this question is often difficult to assess due to inadequate records on streamflow extremes. An alternate way of determining possible extreme flooding is through assessment of the two key factors that lead to the intensification of floods: the intensification of causative rainfall and changes in the wetness conditions prior to rainfall. This study assesses global changes in the antecedent wetness prior to extreme rainfall. Our results indicate a significant increase in the antecedent moisture in Australia and Africa over the last century; however, there was also a decrease in Eurasia and insignificant change in North America. Given the nature of changes found in this study, any future flood assessment for global warming conditions should take into account antecedent moisture conditions.

  17. Air pollution control and decreasing new particle formation lead to strong climate warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Makkonen

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The number of cloud droplets determines several climatically relevant cloud properties. A major cause for the high uncertainty in the indirect aerosol forcing is the availability of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN, which in turn is highly sensitive to atmospheric new particle formation. Here we present the effect of new particle formation on anthropogenic aerosol forcing in present-day (year 2000 and future (year 2100 conditions. The total aerosol forcing (−1.61 W m−2 in year 2000 is simulated to be greatly reduced in the future, to −0.23 W m−2, mainly due to decrease in SO2 emissions and resulting decrease in new particle formation. With the total aerosol forcing decreasing in response to air pollution control measures taking effect, warming from increased greenhouse gas concentrations can potentially increase at a very rapid rate.

  18. Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, I-Ching; Hill, Jane K; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Roy, David B; Thomas, Chris D

    2011-08-19

    The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate. Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 16.9 kilometers per decade. These rates are approximately two and three times faster than previously reported. The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes. However, individual species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change. Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species.

  19. Biotic Response in Aquatic Reptiles (Testudines) during Earliest Eocene Climatic Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holroyd, P. A.; Hutchison, J. H.

    2010-12-01

    The earliest Eocene is marked by significant events of global warming: the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) at ~55.8 Ma and two short-lived events (ETM2 or Elmo and H2) approximately 2 Ma later. These environmental changes induced strong responses in the continental biota. Noteworthy changes in North American mid-latitude faunas and floras that are temporally correlated with earliest Eocene warming events include: increased diversity; turnover; and significant range changes, comprising both northward shifts in ranges of North American taxa as well as intercontinental dispersal across Holarctica. Evidence for these biotic changes comes directly from the fossil record and indirectly from phylogeographic analyses of molecular phylogenies of extant biota. To date, the stratigraphic record of biotic change has only been examined for the flora and terrestrial mammals. Data on reptiles and for continental aquatic systems are particularly lacking. In order to assess the impact of climate-mediated faunal change in aquatic systems during early Paleogene warming, we have focused on developing a detailed record of fossil turtles (Testudines) from the Bighorn Basin of Wyoming, where these records can be directly compared to similarly studied mammalian and floral data and to isotopic studies that provide independent proxies of climate change. Using genus-level occurrence data from more than 450 stratigraphically-constrained localities spanning ~2.5 Ma, we calculated first and last appearances, taxonomic richness, and relative abundance as measured by presence-absence (site occupancy). Among turtles, taxonomic richness increased episodically through the earliest Eocene with two new taxa appearing at the PETM, two immediately following it, and two at Biohorizon B, an interval associated with the younger hyperthermals. These new, immigrant taxa eventually comprised 40% of known generic richness. Phylogenetically, the inferred biogeographic source regions are southern North

  20. Climate and environment reconstruction during the Medieval Warm Period in Lop Nur of Xinjiang, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA ChunMei; WANG FuBao; CAO QiongYing; XIA XunCheng; LI ShengFeng; Li XuSheng

    2008-01-01

    We made multi-proxy analysis of 14C, grain size, microfossils, plant seeds, and geochemical elements on samples from a profile in the central West Lake of Lop Nur. The grain size suggests relatively stable sedimentary environment around the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) with weak storm effect, which is followed by frequent strong storm events. Abundant microfossils and plant seeds in this stage indicate a warm and humid fresh to brackish lake environment. C, N, and stable elements are high in content in the sediments while Rb/Sr, Ba/Sr, and Ti/Sr are in a steady low level. In addition, plenty of red willows lived here prior to about 700 a B.P., indicating a favorable environmental condition. The results indicate that the environment in Lop Nur and its west bank turned to be favorable at about 2200 a B.P., where the Loulan Culture began to thrive. Then the climate and environment came to be in the good condition in the Tang and Song Dynasties, when the storm effect became weaker, rainfall increased and the salty lake water turned to be brackish to fresh lake water. Hence, Iimnic biomass increased with higher spe-cies diversity.

  1. Brief communication: Thinning of debris-covered and debris-free glaciers in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Argha

    2017-01-01

    Recent geodetic mass-balance measurements reveal similar thinning rates on glaciers with or without debris cover in the Himalaya-Karakoram region. This comes as a surprise as a thick debris cover reduces the surface melting significantly due to its insulating effects. Here we present arguments, supported by results from numerical flowline model simulations of idealised glaciers, that a competition between the changes in the surface mass-balance forcing and that of the emergence/submergence velocities can lead to similar thinning rates on these two types of glaciers. As the climate starts warming, the thinning rate on a debris-covered glacier is initially smaller than that on a similar debris-free glacier. Subsequently, the rate on the debris-covered glacier becomes comparable to and then larger than that on the debris-free one. The time evolution of glacier-averaged thinning rates after an initial warming is strongly controlled by the time variation of the corresponding emergence velocity profile.

  2. Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattiaux, J.; Cassou, C.

    2015-12-01

    Strength and inland penetration of the oceanic westerly flow over Europe control a large part of the temperature variability over most of the continent. Reduced westerlies, linked to high-pressure anomalies over Scandinavia, induce cold conditions in winter and warm conditions in summer. Here we propose to define the onset of these two seasons as the calendar day where the daily circulation/temperature relationship over Western Europe switches sign. According to this meteorologically-based metrics assessed from several observational datasets, we provide robust evidence for an earlier summer onset by ~10 days between the 1960s and 2000s. Results from model ensemble simulations dedicated to detection-attribution show that this calendar advance is incompatible with the sole internal climate variability and can be attributed to anthropogenic forcings. Late winter snow disappearance over Eastern Europe affects cold air intrusion to the West when easterlies blow, and is mainly responsible for the observed present-day and near-future summer advance. Our findings agree with phenological-based trends (earlier spring events) reported for many living species over Europe, for which they provide a novel dynamical interpretation beyond the traditionally evoked global warming effect. Based on business-as-usual scenario, a seasonal shift of ~25 days is expected by 2100 for summer onset, while no clear signal arises for winter onset.

  3. Global warming's five Germanys: A typology of Germans' views on climate change and patterns of media use and information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metag, Julia; Füchslin, Tobias; Schäfer, Mike S

    2017-05-01

    People's attitudes toward climate change differ, and these differences may correspond to distinct patterns of media use and information seeking. However, studies extending analyses of attitude types and their specific media diets to countries beyond the United States are lacking. We use a secondary analysis of survey data from Germany to identify attitudes toward climate change among the German public and specify those segments of the population based on their media use and information seeking. Similar to the Global Warming's Six Americas study, we find distinct attitudes (Global Warming's Five Germanys) that differ in climate change-related perceptions as well as in media use and communicative behavior. These findings can help tailor communication campaigns regarding climate change to specific audiences.

  4. Change in climate and nature over Toyama prefecture due to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatsushika, H.; Kawasaki, K.; Oritani, T.; Kondo, T.; Mizoguchi, T.; Kido, M.; Tsuchihara, Y.; Wada, N.; Horikawa, K.

    2007-12-01

    Toyama prefecture is located in the center of the mainland of Japan and is surrounded by steep mountains called Tateyama at about 3,000m above sea level and by the deep Toyama bay at about 1,000m depth. In summer, since Pacific high covers mainland of Japan and East Asian summer monsoon brings a lot of rainfalls, climate in Toyama is suitable for cropping the highest qualified rice and vegetables. In winter, the dominant East Asian winter monsoon brings water from the Japan Sea by heavy snowfalls onto Tateyama. As the snow melts gradually from spring to early autumn, the abundant pure water is utilized for generating hydroelectric power and for a variety of other purposes, making it a vital resource for industries, agriculture, fishery, and human life as well as for wildlife on both sides of the plains and the mountains of Toyama. In recent, by the IPCC-AR4, influence of global warming is reported in many aspects of nature and human lives all over the world. However, we have yet to realize whether these signs are also appeared in Toyama. Therefore, we carried out statistical analyses to investigate change of nature, climate, and human lives in Toyama by global warming. Some of main results are as follows. Using the phenological data of a sample maple (Acer palmatum) tree growing at the garden in Toyama Local Meteorological Observatory, we analyzed that the leaf-color-change date is delayed ca. 20 days and the leaf-falling date is delayed ca. 10 days during recent 30 years. Using daily snowfall data between 1958 and 2007, we found that snow amounts and snowfall days are decreased significantly on the plains, while there is no trend on the mountain side. Using AMeDAS's hourly temperature data between 1978 and 2006, we detected increases in winter time minimum temperature, summer time maximum temperature, and "typical summer days" which is defined as total days that the daily maximum temperature exceeds 30 degree C. It can be inferred from these findings that the

  5. Evaporation variability under climate warming in five reanalyses and its association with pan evaporation over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Tao; Feng, Taichen; Feng, Guolin

    2015-08-01

    With the motivation to identify actual evapotranspiration (AE) variability under climate warming over China, an assessment is made from five sets of reanalysis data sets [National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR), NCEP-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), Interim Reanalysis, and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55)]. Based on comparison with AE estimates calculated using the Budyko equation, all five reanalysis data sets reasonably reproduce the spatial patterns of AE over China, with a clearly southeast-northwest gradient. Overall, JRA-55 (NCEP-DOE) gives the lowest (highest) reanalysis evaporation (RE) values. From 1979 to 2013, dominant modes of RE among five reanalyses are extracted using multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis. Accordingly, the interdecadal variation of RE is likely driven by the change of temperature, and the interannual variation is constrained by the water supply conditions. Under climate warming, RE increase in the Northwest China, Yangtze-Huaihe river basin, and South China, while they decrease in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and northern and Northeast China. Moreover, the relationship between RE and pan evaporation (PE) are comprehensively evaluated in space-time. Negative correlations are generally confirmed in nonhumid environments, while positive correlations exist in the humid regions. Our analysis supports the interpretation that the relationship between PE and AE was complementary with water control and proportional with energy control. In view of data availability, important differences in spatial variability and the amount of RE can be found in Northwest China, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the Yangtze River Basin. Generally speaking, NCEP-NCAR and MERRA have substantial problems on describing the long-term change of RE; however, there are some inaccuracies in the JRA-55 estimates when focusing on

  6. Effects of climate warming and species richness on photochemistry of grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gielen, Birgit; Naudts, Kim; D'Haese, David; Lemmens, Catherine M H M; De Boeck, Hans J; Biebaut, Eddy; Serneels, Roger; Valcke, Roland; Nijs, Ivan; Ceulemans, Reinhart

    2007-10-01

    In view of the projected climatic changes and the global decrease in plant species diversity, it is critical to understand the effects of elevated air temperature (T(air)) and species richness (S) on physiological processes in plant communities. Therefore, an experiment of artificially assembled grassland ecosystems, with different S (one, three or nine species), growing in sunlit climate-controlled chambers at ambient T(air) and ambient T(air) + 3 degrees C was established. We investigated whether grassland species would be more affected by midday high-temperature stress during summer in a warmer climate scenario. The effect of elevated T(air) was expected to differ with S. This was tested in the second and third experimental years by means of chlorophyll a fluorescence. Because acclimation to elevated T(air) would affect the plant's stress response, the hypothesis of photosynthetic acclimation to elevated T(air) was tested in the third year by gas exchange measurements in the monocultures. Plants in the elevated T(air) chambers suffered more from midday stress on warm summer days than those in ambient chambers. In absence of severe drought, the quantum yield of PSII was not affected by elevated T(air). Our results further indicate that species had not photosynthetically acclimated to a temperature increase of 3 degrees C after 3 years exposure to a warmer climate. Although effects of S and T(air) x S interactions were mostly not significant in our study, we expect that combined effects of T(air) and S would be important in conditions of severe drought events.

  7. Climate warming, marine protected areas and the ocean-scale integrity of coral reef ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas A J Graham

    Full Text Available Coral reefs have emerged as one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate variation and change. While the contribution of a warming climate to the loss of live coral cover has been well documented across large spatial and temporal scales, the associated effects on fish have not. Here, we respond to recent and repeated calls to assess the importance of local management in conserving coral reefs in the context of global climate change. Such information is important, as coral reef fish assemblages are the most species dense vertebrate communities on earth, contributing critical ecosystem functions and providing crucial ecosystem services to human societies in tropical countries. Our assessment of the impacts of the 1998 mass bleaching event on coral cover, reef structural complexity, and reef associated fishes spans 7 countries, 66 sites and 26 degrees of latitude in the Indian Ocean. Using Bayesian meta-analysis we show that changes in the size structure, diversity and trophic composition of the reef fish community have followed coral declines. Although the ocean scale integrity of these coral reef ecosystems has been lost, it is positive to see the effects are spatially variable at multiple scales, with impacts and vulnerability affected by geography but not management regime. Existing no-take marine protected areas still support high biomass of fish, however they had no positive affect on the ecosystem response to large-scale disturbance. This suggests a need for future conservation and management efforts to identify and protect regional refugia, which should be integrated into existing management frameworks and combined with policies to improve system-wide resilience to climate variation and change.

  8. Weakening and strengthening structures in the Hadley Circulation change under global warming and implications for cloud response and climate sensitivity

    OpenAIRE

    Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Zhai, Chengxing; Shen, Tsaepyng J.; Neelin, J. David; Stephens, Graeme L; Yung, Yuk L.

    2014-01-01

    It has long been recognized that differences in climate model-simulated cloud feedbacks are a primary source of uncertainties for the model-predicted surface temperature change induced by increasing greenhouse gases such as CO_2. Large-scale circulation broadly determines when and where clouds form and how they evolve. However, the linkage between large-scale circulation change and cloud radiative effect (CRE) change under global warming has not been thoroughly studied. By analyzing 15 climat...

  9. Reproducing under a warming climate: long winter flowering and extended flower longevity in the only Mediterranean and maritime Primula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aronne, G; Buonanno, M; De Micco, V

    2015-03-01

    Under the pressure of global warming, general expectations of species migration and evolution of adaptive traits should always be confirmed with species-specific studies. Within this framework, some species can be used as study systems to predict possible consequences of global warming also on other relatives. Unlike its mountain congeneric, Primula palinuri Petagn. has endured all the climatic fluctuations since the Pleistocene, while surviving on Mediterranean coastal cliffs. The aim of this work was to investigate the possible evolution of reproductive biological and ecological traits in P. palinuri adaptation to a warmer environment. Data showed that flowering starts in mid-winter; single flowers remain open for over a month, changing from pendulous to erect. The number of insects visiting flowers of P. palinuri increases during the flowering season, and pollination reduces flower longevity. Overall, the best pollen performances, in terms of viability and germinability, occur at winter temperatures, while pollinator activity prolongs flowering until spring. Moreover, extended longevity of single flowers optimises reproductive success. Both phenotypic plasticity and selective processes might have occurred in P. palinuri. However, we found that reproductive traits of the only Mediterranean Primula remain more associated with cold mountain habitats than warm coastal cliffs. Given the rapid trend of climate warming, migration and new adaptive processes in P. palinuri are unlikely. Response to past climate warming of P. palinuri provides useful indications for future scenarios in other Primula species.

  10. Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

    2016-04-01

    Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO

  11. Long-term pattern and magnitude of soil carbon feedback to the climate system in a warming world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melillo, J M; Frey, S D; DeAngelis, K M; Werner, W J; Bernard, M J; Bowles, F P; Pold, G; Knorr, M A; Grandy, A S

    2017-10-06

    In a 26-year soil warming experiment in a mid-latitude hardwood forest, we documented changes in soil carbon cycling to investigate the potential consequences for the climate system. We found that soil warming results in a four-phase pattern of soil organic matter decay and carbon dioxide fluxes to the atmosphere, with phases of substantial soil carbon loss alternating with phases of no detectable loss. Several factors combine to affect the timing, magnitude, and thermal acclimation of soil carbon loss. These include depletion of microbially accessible carbon pools, reductions in microbial biomass, a shift in microbial carbon use efficiency, and changes in microbial community composition. Our results support projections of a long-term, self-reinforcing carbon feedback from mid-latitude forests to the climate system as the world warms. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  12. The link between extreme precipitation and convective organization in a warming climate: Global radiative-convective equilibrium simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Reed, Kevin A.; Medeiros, Brian

    2016-11-01

    The rate of increase of extreme precipitation in response to global warming varies dramatically across climate model simulations, particularly over the tropics, for reasons that have yet to be established. Here we propose one potential mechanism: changing organization of convection with climate. We analyze a set of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with an idealized global radiative-convective equilibrium configuration forced by fixed sea surface temperatures varying in 2° increments from 285 to 307 K. In these simulations, convective organization varies from semiorganized in cold simulations, disorganized in warm simulations, and abruptly becomes highly organized at just over 300 K. The change in extreme precipitation with warming also varies across these simulations, including a large increase at the transition from disorganized to organized convection. We develop an extreme precipitation-focused metric for convective organization and use this to explore their connection.

  13. Importance of biophysical effects on climate warming mitigation potential of biofuel crops over the conterminous United Sta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Current quantification of Climate Warming Mitigation Potential (CWMP) of biomass-derived energy has focused primarily on its biogeochemical effects. This study used site-level observations of carbon, water, and energy fluxes of biofuel crops to parameterize and evaluate the Community Land Model (CLM...

  14. Comparison of "warm and wet" and "cold and icy" scenarios for early Mars in a 3D climate model

    CERN Document Server

    Wordsworth, Robin D; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T; Forget, Francois; Head, James W

    2015-01-01

    We use a 3D general circulation model to compare the primitive Martian hydrological cycle in "warm and wet" and "cold and icy" scenarios. In the warm and wet scenario, an anomalously high solar flux or intense greenhouse warming artificially added to the climate model are required to maintain warm conditions and an ice-free northern ocean. Precipitation shows strong surface variations, with high rates around Hellas basin and west of Tharsis but low rates around Margaritifer Sinus (where the observed valley network drainage density is nonetheless high). In the cold and icy scenario, snow migration is a function of both obliquity and surface pressure, and limited episodic melting is possible through combinations of seasonal, volcanic and impact forcing. At surface pressures above those required to avoid atmospheric collapse (~0.5 bar) and moderate to high obliquity, snow is transported to the equatorial highland regions where the concentration of valley networks is highest. Snow accumulation in the Aeolis quadr...

  15. Intensity - Duration - Frequency Curves for U.S. Cities in a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragno, Elisa; AghaKouchak, Amir; Love, Charlotte; Vahedifard, Farshid; Cheng, Linyin; Lima, Carlos

    2017-04-01

    Current infrastructure design procedures rely on the use of Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves retrieved under the assumption of temporal stationarity, meaning that occurrences of extreme events are expected to be time invariant. However, numerous studies have observed more severe extreme events over time. Hence, the stationarity assumption for extreme analysis may not be appropriate in a warming climate. This issue raises concerns regarding the safety and resilience of infrastructures and natural slopes. Here we employ daily precipitation data from historical and projected (RCP 8.5) CMIP5 runs to investigate IDF curves of 14 urban areas across the United States. We first statistically assess changes in precipitation extremes using an energy-based test for equal distributions. Then, through a Bayesian inference approach for stationary and non-stationary extreme value analysis, we provide updated IDF curves based on future climatic model projections. We show that, based on CMIP5 simulations, U.S cities may experience extreme precipitation events up to 20% more intense and twice as frequently, relative to historical records, despite the expectation of unchanged annual mean precipitation.

  16. Air pollution control and decreasing new particle formation lead to strong climate warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Makkonen

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The number concentration of cloud droplets determines several climatically relevant cloud properties. A major cause for the high uncertainty in the indirect aerosol forcing is the availability of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN, which in turn is highly sensitive to atmospheric new particle formation. Here we present the effect of new particle formation on anthropogenic aerosol forcing in present-day (year 2000 and future (year 2100 conditions. The present-day total aerosol forcing is increased from −1.0 W m−2 to −1.6 W m−2 when nucleation is introduced into the model. Nucleation doubles the change in aerosol forcing between years 2000 and 2100, from +0.6 W m−2 to +1.4 W m−2. Two climate feedbacks are studied, resulting in additional negative forcings of −0.1 W m−2 (+10% DMS emissions in year 2100 and −0.5 W m−2 (+50% BVOC emissions in year 2100. With the total aerosol forcing diminishing in response to air pollution control measures taking effect, warming from increased greenhouse gas concentrations can potentially increase at a very rapid rate.

  17. Runoff Response to Climate Warming and Forest Disturbance in a Mid-Mountain Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Langhammer

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A headwater basin in the Sumava Mountains (Czech Republic, the upper Vydra basin, has undergone forest disturbance as a result of repeated windstorms, a bark beetle outbreak, and forest management. This study analyzed the long-term (1961–2010 hydro-climatic changes by using a combination of statistical analyses, including Mann-Kendall tests, CUSUM analysis, Buishand’s and Petitt’s homogeneity tests, and Kriging. Although the runoff balance over the study period experienced no apparent changes due to climate warming and forest disturbance, significant changes were detected in the share of direct runoff and baseflow, intra-annual variability of the runoff regime, seasonal runoff patterns, and the distribution of peak and low flow events. The seasonal runoff substantially shifted from summers (decreased from 40% to 28% to springs (increased by 10%. The occurrence of peak flow events has doubled since the 1980s, with a seasonal shift from late spring towards the early spring, while the occurrence of low-flow days decreased by two-thirds. By 1990, these changes were followed by a seasonal shift in runoff from autumn to mid-winter. The changes in hydrological regime in the mid-mountain basin indicate the sensitivity of its hydrological system and the complexity of its feedback with the changing environment.

  18. Stable climate and surface mass balance in Svalbard over 1979–2013 despite the Arctic warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lang

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available With the help of the regional climate model MAR forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (MARERA and the MIROC5 global model (MARMIROC5 from the CMIP5 database, we have modelled the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard at a 10 km resolution over 1979–2013. The integrated total SMB over Svalbard modelled by MARERA is negative (−1.6 Gt yr−1 with a large interannual variability (7.1 Gt but, unlike over Greenland, there has been no acceleration of the surface melt over the past 35 years because of the recent change in atmospheric circulation bringing northerly flows in summer over Svalbard, contrasting the recent observed Arctic warming. However, in 2013, the atmospheric circulation changed to a southwesterly flow over Svalbard causing a record of melt, SMB (−20.4 Gt yr−1 and summer temperature. MIROC5 is significantly colder than ERA-Interim over 1980–2005 but MARMIROC5 is able to improve the near-surface MIROC5 results by simulating not significant SMB differences with MARERA over 1980–2005. On the other hand, MIROC5 does not represent the recent atmospheric circulation shift in summer and induces in MARMIROC5 a significant trend of decreasing SMB (−0.6 Gt yr−2 over 1980–2005.

  19. Enhanced soil moisture drying in transitional regions under a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Shanjun; Huang, Jianping

    2016-03-01

    We analyzed global trends of soil moisture for the period 1948-2010 using the Global Land Data Assimilation System data set. Soil moisture was dominated by negative trends, with pronounced drying over East Asia and the Sahel. Spatial analysis according to climatic region revealed that the most obvious drying occurred over transitional regions between dry and wet climates. The noticeable drying first took place in the humid transitional regions and extended to the dry transitional regions, beginning in the 1980s. The variability of soil moisture was notably related to the changes in precipitation and temperature, but with different roles. For the global average, precipitation had a dominant effect on the variability of soil moisture at interannual to decadal time scales, but temperature was the main cause of the long-term trend of soil moisture on the whole. The enhanced soil drying in the transitional regions was primarily caused by global warming, which is illustrated by regression analysis and the land surface model.

  20. Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E. Overland

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent Arctic changes are likely due to coupled Arctic amplification mechanisms with increased linkage between Arctic climate and sub-Arctic weather. Historically, sea ice grew rapidly in autumn, a strong negative radiative feedback. But increased sea-ice mobility, loss of multi-year sea ice, enhanced heat storage in newly sea ice-free ocean areas, and modified wind fields form connected positive feedback processes. One-way shifts in the Arctic system are sensitive to the combination of episodic intrinsic atmospheric and ocean variability and persistent increasing greenhouse gases. Winter 2009/10 and December 2010 showed a unique connectivity between the Arctic and more southern weather patterns when the typical polar vortex was replaced by high geopotential heights over the central Arctic and low heights over mid-latitudes that resulted in record snow and low temperatures, a warm Arctic—cold continents pattern. The negative value of the winter (DJF 2009/10 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index associated with enhanced meridional winds was the lowest observed value since the beginning of the record in 1865. Wind patterns in December 2007 and 2008 also show an impact of warmer Arctic temperatures. A tendency for higher geopotential heights over the Arctic and enhanced meridional winds are physically consistent with continued loss of sea ice over the next 40 years. A major challenge is to understand the interaction of Arctic changes with climate patterns such as the NAO, Pacific North American and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

  1. Stable climate and surface mass balance in Svalbard over 1979–2013 despite the Arctic warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lang

    2015-01-01

    (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate global model (MARMIROC5 from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project database, we have modelled the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard at a 10 km resolution over 1979–2013. The integrated total surface mass balance (SMB over Svalbard modelled by MARERA is negative (−1.6 Gt yr−1 with a large interannual variability (7.1 Gt but, unlike over Greenland, there has been no acceleration of the surface melt over the past 35 years because of the recent change in atmospheric circulation bringing northwesterly flows in summer over Svalbard, contrasting the recent observed Arctic warming. However, in 2013, the atmospheric circulation changed to a south–southwesterly flow over Svalbard causing record melt, SMB (−20.4 Gt yr−1 and summer temperature. MIROC5 is significantly colder than ERA-Interim over 1980–2005 but MARMIROC5 is able to improve the near-surface MIROC5 results by simulating not significant SMB differences with MARERA over 1980–2005. On the other hand, MIROC5 does not represent the recent atmospheric circulation shift in summer and induces in MARMIROC5 a significant trend of decreasing SMB (−0.6 Gt yr−2 over 1980–2005.

  2. Strong atmospheric chemistry feedback to climate warming from Arctic methane emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaksen, Ivar S.A.; Gauss, Michael; Myhre, Gunnar; Walter Anthony, Katey M.; Ruppel, Carolyn

    2011-01-01

    The magnitude and feedbacks of future methane release from the Arctic region are unknown. Despite limited documentation of potential future releases associated with thawing permafrost and degassing methane hydrates, the large potential for future methane releases calls for improved understanding of the interaction of a changing climate with processes in the Arctic and chemical feedbacks in the atmosphere. Here we apply a “state of the art” atmospheric chemistry transport model to show that large emissions of CH4 would likely have an unexpectedly large impact on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on radiative forcing (RF). The indirect contribution to RF of additional methane emission is particularly important. It is shown that if global methane emissions were to increase by factors of 2.5 and 5.2 above current emissions, the indirect contributions to RF would be about 250% and 400%, respectively, of the RF that can be attributed to directly emitted methane alone. Assuming several hypothetical scenarios of CH4 release associated with permafrost thaw, shallow marine hydrate degassing, and submarine landslides, we find a strong positive feedback on RF through atmospheric chemistry. In particular, the impact of CH4 is enhanced through increase of its lifetime, and of atmospheric abundances of ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and CO2 as a result of atmospheric chemical processes. Despite uncertainties in emission scenarios, our results provide a better understanding of the feedbacks in the atmospheric chemistry that would amplify climate warming.

  3. Anticyclonic atmospheric circulation as an analogue for the warm and dry mid-Holocene summer climate in central Scandinavia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Antonsson

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate reconstructions from central Scandinavia suggest that annual and summer temperatures were rising during the early Holocene and reached their maximum after 8000 cal yr BP. The period with highest temperatures was characterized by increasingly low lake-levels and dry climate, with driest and warmest conditions at about 7000 to 5000 cal yr BP. We compare the reconstructed climate pattern with simulations of a climate model for the last 9000 years and show that the model, which is predominantly driven by solar insolation patterns, suggests less prominent mid-Holocene dry and warm period in Scandinavia than the reconstructions. As an additional explanation for the reconstructed climate, we argue that the trend from the moist early Holocene towards dry and warm mid-Holocene was caused by a changing atmospheric circulation pattern with a mid-Holocene dominance of summer-time anticyclonic circulation. An extreme case of the anticyclonic conditions is the persistent blocking high, an atmospheric pressure pattern that at present often causes long spells of particularly dry and warm summer weather, or "Indian summers". The argument is tested with daily instrumental temperature and precipitation records in central Sweden and an objective circulation classification based on surface air pressure over the period 1900–2002. We conclude that the differences between the precipitation and temperature climates under anticyclonic and non-anticyclonic conditions are significant. Further, warm and dry combination, as indicated by mid-Holocene reconstructions, is a typical pattern under anticyclonic conditions. These results indicate that the presented hypothesis for the mid-Holocene climate is likely valid.

  4. Global warming and climate change with reference to South Africa. Some perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gawie de Villiers

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available According to the geological history of the earth, climate change is an integral part of environmental changes that occurred over time. Sufficient evidence is provided of recurrent wet and dry and cold and hot periods due to natural circumstances. Since the industrial revolution human activities increasingly contribute to air pollution by releasing huge volumes of carbon dioxide and other gasses into the atmosphere, so much so that it is generally accepted that increase in global warming the past decades is directly linked to human activities. Observable signs of human induced climate change include increasing average temperatures at many places, melting ice caps in polar areas, rising sea levels on a global scale and coastal disturbances and damages due to storm surges on coastal areas in various countries, also in South Africa. Consensus from a number of hydrological-meteorological circulation models show, for South Africa, a rise in average annual winter and summer temperatures of between 1.5 and 3.0 degrees Centigrade the following number of decades with a strong possibility of an increase in rainfall in the eastern parts and a decrease in rainfall in the western parts. Bigger floods and longer droughts should occur more frequently as well as severe sea onslaught activities along the eastern and south-eastern coastal areas. The net impact of the predictions on the community is negative. There is though other scientists who indicate that no concrete proof of climate change in South Africa exists; including changes with regard to river floods and droughts. According to more beneficial than detrimental. Despite the differences in opinion about the relative contribution of natural and human activities to the present global warming, changes in hydrological and characteristics of floods in several parts of South Africa in the immediate past, necessitate modifications to available models and approaches to flood damage management and control. Flood

  5. Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Meinshausen

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of possible future greenhouse gas (GHG concentrations pathways. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 2 m of steric sea level rise by 2500 under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.

  6. Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schewe

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.

  7. A sensitivity study to global desertification in cold and warm climates: results from the IPSL OAGCM model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alkama, Ramdane [GAME/CNRM, CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles [LSCE/IPSL UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 8212, Gif sur Yvette (France)

    2012-04-15

    Many simulations have been devoted to study the impact of global desertification on climate, but very few have quantified this impact in very different climate contexts. Here, the climatic impacts of large-scale global desertification in warm (2100 under the SRES A2 scenario forcing), modern and cold (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 thousand years ago) climates are assessed by using the IPSL OAGCM. For each climate, two simulations have been performed, one in which the continents are covered by modern vegetation, the other in which global vegetation is changed to desert i.e. bare soil. The comparison between desert and present vegetation worlds reveals that the prevailing signal in terms of surface energy budget is dominated by the reduction of upward latent heat transfer. Replacing the vegetation by bare soil has similar impacts on surface air temperature South of 20 N in all three climatic contexts, with a warming over tropical forests and a slight cooling over semi-arid and arid areas, and these temperature changes are of the same order of magnitude. North of 20 N, the difference between the temperatures simulated with present day vegetation and in a desert world is mainly due to the change in net radiation related to the modulation of the snow albedo by vegetation, which is obviously absent in the desert world simulations. The enhanced albedo in the desert world simulations induces a large temperature decrease, especially during summer in the cold and modern climatic contexts, whereas the largest difference occurs during winter in the warm climate. This temperature difference requires a larger heat transport to the northern high latitudes. Part of this heat transport increase is achieved through an intensification of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This intensification reduces the sea-ice extent and causes a warming over the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans in the warm climate context. In contrast, the large cooling North of 20 N in both the modern

  8. Comfort temperatures inside low-cost housing : case : six warm climate cities in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez-Azpeitia, G. [Colima Univ., Colima (Mexico). Faculty of Architecture and Design; Bojorquez, G.; Romero, R. [Autonomic Univ. of Baja California, Mexicali (Mexico). Faculty of Architecture and Design; Ruiz, P. [Autonomic Univ. of Chiapas, Tuxtla Gutierrez (Mexico). Faculty of Architecture; Ochoa, J. [Sonora Univ., Hermosillo (Mexico). School of Architecture; Perez, M. [Autonomic Univ. of Yucatan, Merida (Mexico). Faculty of Engineering; Resendiz, O. [Autonomic Univ. of Baja California Sur, La Paz (Mexico). Dept. of Fishing Engineering; Llamas, A. [Autonomic Univ. of Sinaloa, Culiacan (Mexico). Faculty of Architecture

    2009-07-01

    Mexico's National Council for Housing and National Council for Science and Technology supported a research project on the thermal comfort and energy savings in low-cost housing in Mexico. The objective was to establish thermal comfort models and provide reliable diagnostic tools for architectural designers of low-cost housing. Another objective was to promote energy savings through the adjustment of operative temperatures in air conditioning equipment. The approach of the research was an adaptive one in order to evaluate the thermal sensation of individuals in their own habitat; allow the integral study of both physiological and psychological reactions; and consider the individuals as proactive occupants, in search of their thermal comfort. The results of a field study developed according to the adaptive approach principles were presented in this paper. The survey was carried out from 2006 to 2007 in low-cost housing units in 6 Mexican cities with warm climates. In all cases, the houses were naturally ventilated. The measuring periods were determined according to the climatic characteristics of each city. The results of the field study demonstrated the importance of having standards of thermal comfort specific to each location, which must be defined through the direct response of individuals and in the environment in which they perform their daily activities. The results also showed that in hot climates, acclimated people may find comfort in temperatures around 30 degrees C during the warmest seasons. Therefore, reducing the operating temperatures of air conditioning in such conditions represents a huge opportunity for saving electricity. 16 refs., 6 tabs., 6 figs.

  9. Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenton, L.K.; Geissler, P.E.; Haberle, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by ???0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies. ??2007 Nature Publishing Group.

  10. High Resolution Projections of Indian Summer Monsoon Synoptic Activity in a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukumaran, Sandeep; Ravindran, Ajayamohan; Thazhe Purayil, Sabin; Veluthedathekuzhiyil, Praveen

    2016-04-01

    The cyclonic systems of varying intensity, collectively known as Low Pressure Systems (LPS) are responsible more than 50% of the precipitation over Central India. Despite its importance, the future variability of LPS is poorly understood mainly due to the inadequate representation of these systems in global climate models. Insufficient spatial resolution of the current generation coupled models is a hindrance to resolve these storms properly. In order to overcome this problem, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) to simulate current and future climate, with a model grid spacing of ~50km. The time slice experiments for current (1981 - 2005) and future (2071 - 2095) climate are forced with bias-corrected SSTs from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) historical and RCP8.5 simulations respectively. Four ensembles of the experiments are conducted with SST forcing taken from four different CMIP5 models. A benchmark simulation of the HiRAM model with observed SSTs shows that the model is capable of simulating the life cycle of the observed LPS reasonably well. In addition, HiRAM realistically simulates the observed LPS track density. Further, the track density in the historical ensemble is comparable with both observations and benchmark simulation. In the RCP8.5 simulations, an overall decline in the LPS activity is seen which is found to be related to the decrease in the high intensity systems in a warming environment. Consistent with the decrease in LPS activity, the seasonal mean monsoon precipitation is also declining in RCP8.5 simulations.

  11. Climate warming decreases the survival of the little auk (Alle alle), a high Arctic avian predator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hovinen, Johanna E H; Welcker, Jorg; Descamps, Sébastien; Strøm, Hallvard; Jerstad, Kurt; Berge, Jørgen; Steen, Harald

    2014-01-01

    Delayed maturity, low fecundity, and high adult survival are traits typical for species with a long-life expectancy. For such species, even a small change in adult survival can strongly affect the population dynamics and viability. We examined the effects of both regional and local climatic variability on adult survival of the little auk, a long-lived and numerous Arctic seabird species. We conducted a mark-resighting study for a period of 8 years (2006-2013) simultaneously at three little auk breeding sites that are influenced by the West Spitsbergen Current, which is the main carrier of warm, Atlantic water into the Arctic. We found that the survival of adult little auks was negatively correlated with both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and local summer sea surface temperature (SST), with a time lag of 2 and 1 year, respectively. The effects of NAO and SST were likely mediated through a change in food quality and/or availability: (1) reproduction, growth, and development of Arctic Calanus copepods, the main prey of little auks, are negatively influenced by a reduction in sea ice, reduced ice algal production, and an earlier but shorter lasting spring bloom, all of which result from an increased NAO; (2) a high sea surface temperature shortens the reproductive period of Arctic Calanus, decreasing the number of eggs produced. A synchronous variation in survival rates at the different colonies indicates that climatic forcing was similar throughout the study area. Our findings suggest that a predicted warmer climate in the Arctic will negatively affect the population dynamics of the little auk, a high Arctic avian predator. PMID:25247069

  12. Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenton, Lori K; Geissler, Paul E; Haberle, Robert M

    2007-04-05

    For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by approximately 0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies.

  13. Regional modelling of future African climate north of 15S including greenhouse warming and land degradation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paeth, H. [Geographical Institute, University of Wuerzburg, Am Hubland, 97074 Wuerzburg (Germany); Thamm, H.P. [Geographical Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn (Germany)

    2007-08-15

    Previous studies have highlighted the crucial role of land degradation in tropical African climate. This effect urgently has to be taken into account when predicting future African climate under enhanced greenhouse conditions. Here, we present time slice experiments of African climate until 2025, using a high-resolution regional climate model. A supposable scenario of future land use changes, involving vegetation loss and soil degradation, is prescribed simultaneously with increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in order to detect, where the different forcings counterbalance or reinforce each other. This proceeding allows us to define the regions of highest vulnerability with respect to future freshwater availability and food security in tropical and subtropical Africa and may provide a decision basis for political measures. The model simulates a considerable reduction in precipitation amount until 2025 over most of tropical Africa, amounting to partly more than 500 mm (20-40% of the annual sum), particularly in the Congo Basin and the Sahel Zone. The change is strongest in boreal summer and basically reflects the pattern of maximum vegetation cover during the seasonal cycle. The related change in the surface energy fluxes induces a substantial near-surface warming by up to 7C. According to the modified temperature gradients over tropical Africa, the summer monsoon circulation intensifies and transports more humid air masses into the southern part of West Africa. This humidifying effect is overcompensated by a remarkable decrease in surface evaporation, leading to the overall drying tendency over most of Africa. Extreme daily rainfall events become stronger in autumn but less intense in spring. Summer and autumn appear to be characterized by more severe heat waves over Subsaharan West Africa. In addition, the Tropical Easterly Jet is weakening, leading to enhanced drought conditions in the Sahel Zone. All these results suggest that the local impact of land

  14. Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Macias

    Full Text Available During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.

  15. Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias, Diego; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Stips, Adolf

    2013-01-01

    During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST) from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.

  16. Cooling effect of ripped-stone embankments on Qing-Tibet railway under climatic warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The heat convection in ballast mass and ripped-stone mass in railway embankments is the problem of heat convection in porous media. In order to calculate the temperature distribution of Qing-Tibet railway embankment, from the governing equations used to study forced convection for incompressible fluids porous media, the finite element formulae for heat convection in porous media are derived by using Galerkin's method. The temperature fields of the traditional ballast embankment and the ripped-stone mass embankment, constructed on July 15, have been analyzed and compared under the case that the air temperature in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau will be warmed up by 2.0℃ in the future 50 years. The calculated results indicate that, the permafrost 5 m below the traditional ballast embankment will be thawed in the regions in which the air yearly-average temperature is larger than -3.5℃ or the yearly-average temperature at the native surface is larger than -1℃. The embankment will cause large thawing settlement. The railway embankment will be damaged by permafrost degradation. The ripped-stone mass embankment can not only resist the effect of climatic warm up on it but also provide cool energy for the permafrost under it. It can assure permafrost stability and not subjected to thawing. Therefore, it is highly recommended that the ripped-stone mass embankment be taken as the Qing-Tibet railway embankment structure in high-temperature permafrost regions so that permafrost embankment can be protected as possible as we could.

  17. The potential of land management to decrease global warming from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, A.; Hausfather, Z.; Jones, A. D.; Silver, W. L.

    2016-12-01

    Recent evidence suggests that negative emissions (i.e. sequestration) is critical to slow climate change (IPCC, 2013; Gasser et al, 2015). Agricultural (crop and grazing) lands have the potential to act as a significant carbon sink. These ecosystems cover a significant proportion of the global land surface, and are largely degraded with regard to soil carbon due to previous management practices (Bai et al, 2008). However, few studies have examined the required scale of land management interventions that would be required to make a significant contribution to a portfolio of efforts aimed at limiting anthropogenic influences on global mean temperature. To address this, we modelled the quantitative effect of a range of soil carbon sequestration rates on global temperature to 2100. Results showed that by assuming a baseline emissions scenario outlined in RCP 2.6, the sequestration of an additional 0.7 Pg C per year through improved agricultural land management practices would produce a reduction of 0.1 degrees C from predicted global temperatures by the year 2100. We also compiled previous estimates of global carbon sequestration potential of agricultural soils to compare with our theoretical prediction to determine whether carbon sequestration through existing land management practices has potential to significantly reduce global temperatures. Assuming long-term soil carbon uptake, the combined potential of agricultural land management-based mitigation approaches exceeded 0.25 degrees C warming reduction by the year 2100. However, results were highly sensitive to potential carbon saturation, defined as the maximum threshold for carbon storage in soil. Our results suggest that current land management technologies and available land area exist and could make a measureable impact on warming reduction. Results also highlighted potential carbon saturation as a key gap in knowledge.

  18. A mechanism for land-ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fasullo, J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, CAS/NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2012-09-15

    A central paradox of the global monsoon record involves reported decreases in rainfall over land during an era in which the global hydrologic cycle is both expected and observed to intensify. It is within this context that this work develops a physical basis for both interpreting the observed record and anticipating changes in the monsoons in a warming climate while bolstering the concept of the global monsoon in the context of shared feedbacks. The global-land monsoon record across multiple reanalyses is first assessed. Trends that in other studies have been taken as real are shown to likely be spurious as a result of changes in the assimilated data streams both prior to and during the satellite era. Nonetheless, based on satellite estimates, robust increases in monsoon rainfall over ocean do exist and a physical basis for this land-ocean contrast remains lacking. To address the contrast's causes, simulated trends are therefore assessed. While projections of total rainfall are inconsistent across models, the robust land-ocean contrast identified in observations is confirmed. A feedback mechanism is proposed rooted in the facts that land areas warm disproportionately relative to ocean, and onshore flow is the chief source of monsoonal moisture. Reductions in lower tropospheric relative humidity over land domains are therefore inevitable and these have direct consequences for the monsoonal convective environment including an increase in the lifting condensation level and a shift in the distribution of convection generally towards less frequent and potentially more intense events. The mechanism is interpreted as an important modulating influence on the ''rich-get-richer'' mechanism. Caveats for regional monsoons exist and are discussed. (orig.)

  19. Topography and age mediate the growth responses of Smith fir to climate warming in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, B.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, H.; Liang, E.; Camarero, J. J.

    2016-10-01

    The Tibetan Plateau holds some of the world's highest undisturbed natural treelines and timberlines. Such extreme environments constitute potentially valuable monitoring sites of the effects of climate warming on high-elevation forests. Here, we analyze a network of 21 Smith fir forests situated in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, using tree-ring width (TRW) and basal area increment (BAI) chronologies. Sampled sites encompassed a wide elevation gradient, from 3600 to 4400 m, including some treeline sites and diverse aspects and tree ages. In comparison with TRW series, BAI series better capture the long-term warming signal. Previous November and current April and summer temperatures are the dominant climatic factors controlling Smith fir radial growth. The mean inter-series correlations of TRW increased upwards, but the forest limit presented the highest potential to reconstruct past temperature variability. Moreover, the growth responses of young trees were less stable than those of trees older than 100 years. Climate warming is accelerating radial growth of Smith fir forest subjected to mesic conditions. Collectively, these findings confirm that the effects of site elevation and tree age should be considered when quantifying climate-growth relationships. The type of tree-ring data (BAI vs. TRW) is also relevant since BAI indices seem to be a better climatic proxy of low-frequency temperature signals than TRW indices. Therefore, site (e.g., elevation) and tree (e.g., age) features should be considered to properly evaluate the effects of climate warming on growth of high-elevation forests.

  20. Topography and age mediate the growth responses of Smith fir to climate warming in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, B.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, H.; Liang, E.; Camarero, J. J.

    2016-03-01

    The Tibetan Plateau holds some of the world's highest undisturbed natural treelines and timberlines. Such extreme environments constitute potentially valuable monitoring sites of the effects of climate warming on high-elevation forests. Here, we analyze a network of 21 Smith fir forests situated in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, using tree-ring width (TRW) and basal area increment (BAI) chronologies. Sampled sites encompassed a wide elevation gradient, from 3600 to 4400 m, including some treeline sites and diverse aspects and tree ages. In comparison with TRW series, BAI series better capture the long-term warming signal. Previous November and current April and summer temperatures are the dominant climatic factors controlling Smith fir radial growth. The mean inter-series correlations of TRW increased upwards, but the forest limit presented the highest potential to reconstruct past temperature variability. Moreover, the growth responses of young trees were less stable than those of trees older than 100 years. Climate warming is accelerating radial growth of Smith fir forest subjected to mesic conditions. Collectively, these findings confirm that the effects of site elevation and tree age should be considered when quantifying climate-growth relationships. The type of tree-ring data (BAI vs. TRW) is also relevant since BAI indices seem to be a better climatic proxy of low-frequency temperature signals than TRW indices. Therefore, site (e.g., elevation) and tree (e.g., age) features should be considered to properly evaluate the effects of climate warming on growth of high-elevation forests.

  1. The interplay between knowledge, perceived efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change: a one-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milfont, Taciano L

    2012-06-01

    If the long-term goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C is to be achieved, rapid and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are required. These reductions will demand political leadership and widespread public support for action on global warming and climate change. Public knowledge, level of concern, and perceived personal efficacy, in positively affecting these issues are key variables in understanding public support for mitigation action. Previous research has documented some contradictory associations between knowledge, personal efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about temporal stability and direction of influence. This study examines the relationships between these three variables over a one-year period and three waves with national data from New Zealand. Results showed a positive association between the variables, and the pattern of findings was stable and consistent across the three data points. More importantly, results indicate that concern mediates the influence of knowledge on personal efficacy. Knowing more about global warming and climate change increases overall concern about the risks of these issues, and this increased concern leads to greater perceived efficacy and responsibility to help solving them. Implications for risk communication are discussed.

  2. Climate warming reduces fish production and benthic habitat in Lake Tanganyika, one of the most biodiverse freshwater ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Andrew S; Gergurich, Elizabeth L; Kraemer, Benjamin M; McGlue, Michael M; McIntyre, Peter B; Russell, James M; Simmons, Jack D; Swarzenski, Peter W

    2016-08-23

    Warming climates are rapidly transforming lake ecosystems worldwide, but the breadth of changes in tropical lakes is poorly documented. Sustainable management of freshwater fisheries and biodiversity requires accounting for historical and ongoing stressors such as climate change and harvest intensity. This is problematic in tropical Africa, where records of ecosystem change are limited and local populations rely heavily on lakes for nutrition. Here, using a ∼1,500-y paleoecological record, we show that declines in fishery species and endemic molluscs began well before commercial fishing in Lake Tanganyika, Africa's deepest and oldest lake. Paleoclimate and instrumental records demonstrate sustained warming in this lake during the last ∼150 y, which affects biota by strengthening and shallowing stratification of the water column. Reductions in lake mixing have depressed algal production and shrunk the oxygenated benthic habitat by 38% in our study areas, yielding fish and mollusc declines. Late-20th century fish fossil abundances at two of three sites were lower than at any other time in the last millennium and fell in concert with reduced diatom abundance and warming water. A negative correlation between lake temperature and fish and mollusc fossils over the last ∼500 y indicates that climate warming and intensifying stratification have almost certainly reduced potential fishery production, helping to explain ongoing declines in fish catches. Long-term declines of both benthic and pelagic species underscore the urgency of strategic efforts to sustain Lake Tanganyika's extraordinary biodiversity and ecosystem services.

  3. Climate warming reduces fish production and benthic habitat in Lake Tanganyika, one of the most biodiverse freshwater ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Andrew S.; Gergurich, Elizabeth L.; Kraemer, Benjamin M.; McGlue, Michael M.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Russell, James M.; Simmons, Jack D.; Swarzenski, Peter W.

    2016-01-01

    Warming climates are rapidly transforming lake ecosystems worldwide, but the breadth of changes in tropical lakes is poorly documented. Sustainable management of freshwater fisheries and biodiversity requires accounting for historical and ongoing stressors such as climate change and harvest intensity. This is problematic in tropical Africa, where records of ecosystem change are limited and local populations rely heavily on lakes for nutrition. Here, using a ∼1,500-y paleoecological record, we show that declines in fishery species and endemic molluscs began well before commercial fishing in Lake Tanganyika, Africa’s deepest and oldest lake. Paleoclimate and instrumental records demonstrate sustained warming in this lake during the last ∼150 y, which affects biota by strengthening and shallowing stratification of the water column. Reductions in lake mixing have depressed algal production and shrunk the oxygenated benthic habitat by 38% in our study areas, yielding fish and mollusc declines. Late-20th century fish fossil abundances at two of three sites were lower than at any other time in the last millennium and fell in concert with reduced diatom abundance and warming water. A negative correlation between lake temperature and fish and mollusc fossils over the last ∼500 y indicates that climate warming and intensifying stratification have almost certainly reduced potential fishery production, helping to explain ongoing declines in fish catches. Long-term declines of both benthic and pelagic species underscore the urgency of strategic efforts to sustain Lake Tanganyika’s extraordinary biodiversity and ecosystem services.

  4. Characteristics of climate change in the “significant impact zone” affected by aerosols over eastern China in warm seasons

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Through analysis of the distribution pattern and changing characteristics of atmospheric aerosols over the East Asia region during warm seasons in recent 20 a and beyond as well as their possible interac- tive relationship with a variety of meteorological elements, it is found that the high-value zone of aerosol optical depth derived from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), its significant negative correlation zones in terms of sunshine duration (SD) and surface air temperature (SAT) and its significant positive correlation zones with low-level cloud amount (LCC) are co-located in the South China region during warm periods. Based on this finding, the region is referred to as a "significant impact zone" (SI zone) affected by aerosols. Then, a comparative analysis is made on variation differ- ences of observed SAT, SD and LCC, etc. in different regions. It is also found that the LCC is increased and the SD is decreased within the "SI zone" over eastern China during the warm season. These characteristics are more evident than those beyond the zone, while the warming trend within the zone is evidently weaker than that outside it. Studies show that since recent 20 a, under the influence of aerosols, the LCC tend to increase substantially with a clear decrease of SD and an unnoticeable warming trend within the "SI zone". Comparing with the climate change beyond the zone, the difference is significant. Therefore, the effects of atmospheric aerosols on climate is possibly one of the contri- butions to the difference of climate change existed between the southern and northern parts of the Eastern China during a warm season.

  5. Impacts of climate warming on hybrid zone movement: Geographically diffuse and biologically porous "species borders"

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    J. Mark Scriber

    2011-01-01

    The ecology and evolutionary biology of insect-plant associations has realized extensive attention, especially during the past 60 years. The classifications (categorical designations) of continuous variation in biodiversity, ranging from global patterns (e.g., latitudinal gradients in species richness/diversity and degree of herbivore feeding specialization) to localized insect-plant associations that span the biospectrum from polyphenisms,polymorphisms, biotypes, demes, host races, to cryptic species, remain academically contentious. Semantic and biosystematic (taxonomical) disagreements sometimes detract from more important ecological and evolutionary processes that drive diversification, the dynarnics of gene flow and local extinctions. This review addresses several aspects of insect specialization, host-associated divergence and ecological (including "hybrid") speciation,with special reference to the climate warming impacts on species borders of hybridizing swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae). Interspecific hybrid introgression may result in collapse of multi-species communities or increase species numbers via homoploid hybrid speeiation. We may see diverging, merging, or emerging genotypes across hybrid zones,all part of the ongoing processes of evolution. Molecular analyses of genetic mosaics and genomic dynamics with "divergence hitchhiking", combined with ecological, ethological and physiological studies of "species porosity", have already begun to unveil some answers for some important ecological/evolutionary questions. (i) How rapidly can host-associated divergence lead to new species (and why doesn't it always do so, e.g., resulting in "incomplete" speciation)? (ii) How might "speeiation genes" function, and how/where would we find them? (iii) Can oscillations from specialists to generalists and back to specialists help explain global diversity in herbivorous insects? (iv) How could recombinant interspecific hybridization lead to divergence and

  6. Initiation of Recent Debris Flows on Mount Rainier, Washington: A Climate Warming Signal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, E. A.; Kennard, P.; Nolin, A. W.; Lancaster, S. T.; Grant, G. E.

    2008-12-01

    The first week of November 2006 an intense rainstorm inundated the Pacific Northwest and triggered debris flows on many large volcanoes in the Cascade Range of Washington and Oregon. At Mount Rainier, Washington, 45.7 cm of rain was recorded in 36 hours; the storm was preceded by a week of light precipitation and moderate temperatures, so that rain fell on nearly-saturated ground with minimal snow cover. The November 2006 storm was exceptional in that it resulted in a 100-year flood and caused an unprecedented six-month closure of Mount Rainier National Park. It also focused inquiry as to whether debris flows from Cascade volcanoes are likely to occur more frequently in the future as glaciers recede due to climate warming, leaving unstable moraines and sediment that can act as initiation sites. We examined the recent history of debris flows from Mount Rainier using aerial photographs and field surveyed debris flow tracks. Prior to 2001, debris flows were recorded in association with rainfall or glacial outburst floods in 4 drainages, but 3 additional drainages were first impacted by debris flows in 2001, 2005, and 2006, respectively. We discovered that most of the recent debris flows initiated as small gullies in unconsolidated material at the edge of fragmented glaciers or areas of permanent snow and ice. Other initiation sites occur on steep-sided un-vegetated moraines. Of the 28 named glaciers on Mount Rainier, debris flows initiated near five glaciers in the exceptional storm of 2006 (Winthrop, Inter, Kautz-Success, Van Trump, Pyramid, and South Tahoma). Less exceptional storms, however, have also produced wide-spread debris flows: in September 2005, 15.3 cm of rain fell in 48 hours on minimal snow cover and caused debris flows in all except 2 of the glacier drainages that initiated in 2006. Debris flows from both storms initiated at elevations of 1980 to 2400 m, traveled 5 to 10 kilometers, and caused significant streambed aggradation. These results suggest a

  7. IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON POVERTY AND WOMEN IN INDIA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durgadas Mukhopadhyay [Delhi University, Delhi (India)

    2008-09-30

    The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says the world can expect more heat waves and droughts, heavier rains, stronger storms and rising sea levels due to global warming caused by emissions of greenhouse gases. Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia- where the climate is already more extreme and arid regions are common-are likely to be most affected. Large numbers of people could be forced to find new homes as their living environments are submerged, or food and water become scarce. Up to 250 million people could be displaced by climate-related disasters by the middle of the century. Recent World Bank researcher has found that the impacts of a one-meter rise in sea level will be profound in the developing world, potentially turning 56 million people in 84 developing countries into environmental refugees. In Vietnam, an estimated 10.8 per cent of the nation's population will be displaced with onemeter sea level rise, with very high impacts in the Mekong and Red River deltas. Egypt's Nile Delta will be similarly affected with 10.5 per cent of the population at risk and 25 percent of the delta inundated. In South Asia, Bangladesh will have the largest share of land affected. A 2007 cross-country study in Latin America has found strong evidence that agriculture in the region will be vulnerable to the effects of higher temperatures, though these effects are likely to vary from place to place. Deforestation at five percent a decade is steadily depleting a valuable resource base for millions of people who depend on forest for survival. It also contributes to about 20 per cent of annual global CO2 emissions and seriously threatens biodiversity. A world-wide average 3 centigrade increase (compared to pre-industrial temperatures) over the coming decades would results in a range of localized increases that could reach twice as high in some locations. The effect that increase droughts, extreme weather events, tropical storms and sea level rises will

  8. Changes in the distribution of isotherms across the Carpathian Mountains in response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magdalena Micu, Dana; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin; Birsan, Marius-Victor

    2016-04-01

    Air temperature is a crucial climate variable in the monitoring of climate change effects, especially in high-elevation regions highly sensitive to the recent warming. The study highlights the spatial changes and the vertical anomalies of the observed temperature trends associated with displacements of some important isotherms, relevant for the typololgy of periglacial process (e.g. 2°, 0°, 2°, 3°C) and the spread of forest vegetation (10°C), across the Carpathian Mountains range. The analyses are based on homogenized daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature available at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) for 1961-2010, developed within the CARPATCLIM project (www.carpatclim.eu). The changes in isotherm distribution were investigated for each season by comparing distinct three 30-year time-slices (1961-1990, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010) at regional scale, with focus on the five Carpathian Mountains regions. The results show consistent spatial changes, suggesting a strong northward displacement of isotherms in winter and summer and a slightly less one in spring. The strongest changes associated to the isotherms of average and maximum temperature occur the strongest in the areas beyond 47°N latitude, distinguishing extended areas of the Northwestern Carpathians, the Northeastern Carpathians and Southwestern and Southern Carpathians. In summer, the vertical displacement of all isotherms were found significant over the entire Carpathian domain, with changes of up to 0.6-0.8°C for minimum temperature isotherms and over 0.8-1.0°C for the average and maximum temperature. In autumn, most visible changes were assigned to maximum temperature isotherms, especially when comparing the time-slices overlapping the last 40 years of the study period, yet at a weaker magnitude compared to other seasons (below 0.6°C). The spatial changes in the distribution of isotherms are relevant for the timing and intensity of processes in the areas with active seasonal ground freezing (above 2

  9. A warm or a cold early Earth? New insights from a 3-D climate-carbon model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charnay, Benjamin; Le Hir, Guillaume; Fluteau, Frédéric; Forget, François; Catling, David C.

    2017-09-01

    Oxygen isotopes in marine cherts have been used to infer hot oceans during the Archean with temperatures between 60 °C (333 K) and 80 °C (353 K). Such climates are challenging for the early Earth warmed by the faint young Sun. The interpretation of the data has therefore been controversial. 1D climate modeling inferred that such hot climates would require very high levels of CO2 (2-6 bars). Previous carbon cycle modeling concluded that such stable hot climates were impossible and that the carbon cycle should lead to cold climates during the Hadean and the Archean. Here, we revisit the climate and carbon cycle of the early Earth at 3.8 Ga using a 3D climate-carbon model. We find that CO2 partial pressures of around 1 bar could have produced hot climates given a low land fraction and cloud feedback effects. However, such high CO2 partial pressures should not have been stable because of the weathering of terrestrial and oceanic basalts, producing an efficient stabilizing feedback. Moreover, the weathering of impact ejecta during the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) would have strongly reduced the CO2 partial pressure leading to cold climates and potentially snowball Earth events after large impacts. Our results therefore favor cold or temperate climates with global mean temperatures between around 8 °C (281 K) and 30 °C (303 K) and with 0.1-0.36 bar of CO2 for the late Hadean and early Archean. Finally, our model suggests that the carbon cycle was efficient for preserving clement conditions on the early Earth without necessarily requiring any other greenhouse gas or warming process.

  10. Effect of simulated climate warming on the morphological and physiological traits of Elsholtzia haichowensis in copper contaminated soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Ming; Jin, Zexin; Li, Junmin; Pan, Xiaocui; Wang, Suizi; Li, Yuelin

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of temperature and Cu on the morphological and physiological traits of Elsholtzia haichowensis grown in soils amended with four Cu concentrations (0, 50, 500, and 1000 mg kg(-1)) under ambient temperature and slight warming. At the same Cu concentration, the height, shoot dry weight, total plant dry weight, and root morphological parameters such as length, surface area and tip number of E. haichowensis increased due to the slight warming. The net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration, light use efficiency were also higher under the slight warming than under ambient temperature. The increased Cu concentrations, total Cu uptake, bioaccumulation factors and tolerance indexes of shoots and roots were also observed at the slight warming. The shoot dry weight, root dry weight, total plant dry weight and the bioaccumulation factors of shoots and roots at 50 mg Cu kg(-1) were significantly higher than those at 500 and 1000 mg Cu kg(-1) under the slight warming. Therefore, the climate warming may improve the ability of E. haichowensis to phytoremediate Cu-contaminated soil, and the ability improvement greatly depended on the Cu concentrations in soils.

  11. Development of probability distributions for regional climate change from uncertain global mean warming and an uncertain scaling relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available To produce probability distributions for regional climate change in surface temperature and precipitation, a probability distribution for global mean temperature increase has been combined with the probability distributions for the appropriate scaling variables, i.e. the changes in regional temperature/precipitation per degree global mean warming. Each scaling variable is assumed to be normally distributed. The uncertainty of the scaling relationship arises from systematic differences between the regional changes from global and regional climate model simulations and from natural variability. The contributions of these sources of uncertainty to the total variance of the scaling variable are estimated from simulated temperature and precipitation data in a suite of regional climate model experiments conducted within the framework of the EU-funded project PRUDENCE, using an Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA. For the area covered in the 2001–2004 EU-funded project SWURVE, five case study regions (CSRs are considered: NW England, the Rhine basin, Iberia, Jura lakes (Switzerland and Mauvoisin dam (Switzerland. The resulting regional climate changes for 2070–2099 vary quite significantly between CSRs, between seasons and between meteorological variables. For all CSRs, the expected warming in summer is higher than that expected for the other seasons. This summer warming is accompanied by a large decrease in precipitation. The uncertainty of the scaling ratios for temperature and precipitation is relatively large in summer because of the differences between regional climate models. Differences between the spatial climate-change patterns of global climate model simulations make significant contributions to the uncertainty of the scaling ratio for temperature. However, no meaningful contribution could be found for the scaling ratio for precipitation due to the small number of global climate models in the PRUDENCE project and natural variability, which is

  12. Dynamics and distribution of natural and human-caused hypoxia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. N. Rabalais

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Water masses can become undersaturated with oxygen when natural processes alone or in combination with anthropogenic processes produce enough organic carbon that is aerobically decomposed faster than the rate of oxygen re-aeration. The dominant natural processes usually involved are photosynthetic carbon production and microbial respiration. The re-supply rate is indirectly related to its isolation from the surface layer. Hypoxic water masses (<2 mg L−1, or approximately 30% saturation can form, therefore, under "natural" conditions, and are more likely to occur in marine systems when the water residence time is extended, water exchange and ventilation are minimal, stratification occurs, and where carbon production and export to the bottom layer are relatively high. Hypoxia has occurred through geological time and naturally occurs in oxygen minimum zones, deep basins, eastern boundary upwelling systems, and fjords.

    Hypoxia development and continuation in many areas of the world's coastal ocean is accelerated by human activities, especially where nutrient loading increased in the Anthropocene. This higher loading set in motion a cascading set of events related to eutrophication. The formation of hypoxic areas has been exacerbated by any combination of interactions that increase primary production and accumulation of organic carbon leading to increased respiratory demand for oxygen below a seasonal or permanent pycnocline. Nutrient loading is likely to increase further as population growth and resource intensification rises, especially with increased dependency on crops using fertilizers, burning of fossil fuels, urbanization, and waste water generation. It is likely that the occurrence and persistence of hypoxia will be even more widespread and have more impacts than presently observed.

    Global climate change will further complicate the causative factors in both natural and human-caused hypoxia. The likelihood of

  13. Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, Nate G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-01-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle11,12. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology13, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  14. Adaptive strategies and life history characteristics in a warming climate: salmon in the Arctic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Ruggerone, Gregory T.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

    2013-01-01

    In the warming Arctic, aquatic habitats are in flux and salmon are exploring their options. Adult Pacific salmon, including sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka), coho (O. kisutch), Chinook (O. tshawytscha), pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) have been captured throughout the Arctic. Pink and chum salmon are the most common species found in the Arctic today. These species are less dependent on freshwater habitats as juveniles and grow quickly in marine habitats. Putative spawning populations are rare in the North American Arctic and limited to pink salmon in drainages north of Point Hope, Alaska, chum salmon spawning rivers draining to the northwestern Beaufort Sea, and small populations of chum and pink salmon in Canada’s Mackenzie River. Pacific salmon have colonized several large river basins draining to the Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas in the Russian Arctic. These populations probably developed from hatchery supplementation efforts in the 1960’s. Hundreds of populations of Arctic Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are found in Russia, Norway and Finland. Atlantic salmon have extended their range eastward as far as the Kara Sea in central Russian. A small native population of Atlantic salmon is found in Canada’s Ungava Bay. The northern tip of Quebec seems to be an Atlantic salmon migration barrier for other North American stocks. Compatibility between life history requirements and ecological conditions are prerequisite for salmon colonizing Arctic habitats. Broad-scale predictive models of climate change in the Arctic give little information about feedback processes contributing to local conditions, especially in freshwater systems. This paper reviews the recent history of salmon in the Arctic and explores various patterns of climate change that may influence range expansions and future sustainability of salmon in Arctic habitats. A summary of the research needs that will allow informed expectation of further Arctic colonization by salmon is given.

  15. Aerosol-induced changes of convective cloud anvils produce strong climate warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Koren

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The effect of aerosol on clouds poses one of the largest uncertainties in estimating the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Small human-induced perturbations to cloud characteristics via aerosol pathways can create a change in the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing of hundreds of Wm−2. Here we focus on links between aerosol and deep convective clouds of the Atlantic and Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zones, noting that the aerosol environment in each region is entirely different. The tops of these vertically developed clouds consisting of mostly ice can reach high levels of the atmosphere, overshooting the lower stratosphere and reaching altitudes greater than 16 km. We show a link between aerosol, clouds and the free atmosphere wind profile that can change the magnitude and sign of the overall climate radiative forcing.

    We find that increased aerosol loading is associated with taller cloud towers and anvils. The taller clouds reach levels of enhanced wind speeds that act to spread and thin the anvil clouds, increasing areal coverage and decreasing cloud optical depth. The radiative effect of this transition is to create a positive radiative forcing (warming at top-of-atmosphere.

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