WorldWideScience

Sample records for human impacts climate

  1. Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change threatens human health and well-being in the United States. To address this growing threat, the Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), a working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP), has developed this assessment as part of the ongoing efforts of the USGCRP’s National Climate Assessment (NCA) and as called for under the President’s Climate Action Plan. The authors of this assessment have compiled and assessed current research on human health impacts of climate change and summarized the current “state of the science” for a number of key impact areas. This assessment provides a comprehensive update to the most recent detailed technical assessment for the health impacts of climate change, 2008 Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6 (SAP 4.6) Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems (CCSP 2008). It also updates and builds upon the health chapter of the third NCA (Melillo et al. 2014). The lead and coordinating Federal agencies for the USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment are the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Institute of Health (NIH), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Available at https://health2016.globalchange.gov/ The interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has developed this assessment as part of the ongoing efforts of their National C

  2. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Edward H; Bassett, Hannah R

    2015-11-13

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society's diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  3. Review: The impact of changing human environment and climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The impact of human-induced climate change through industrialization with the consequent depletion of the ozone layer of the environment is now observed to compromise the sustainability of human development as it threatens the ecological support system on which life depends in addition to encouraging the emergence ...

  4. Impact of the human activities on the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deque, M.

    2007-01-01

    In the framework of the A2 scenario of the GIEC, the possible impacts on the french climate, of the human activities are examined. It seems that the human activities imposed and will be able to impose a faster change of the climate than the natural changes. For the hundred coming years the main characteristics could be: an increase of the temperature, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease in summer, a decrease of the water in soils expected in freezing areas and an increase of the drought periods. (A.L.B.)

  5. Climate change impacts on human exposures to air pollution ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is an abstract for a presentations at the Annual Conference of the International Society on Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology. This presentation will serve as an introduction to the symposium. As we consider the potential health impacts of a warming planet, the relationships between climate change and air pollutants become increasingly important to understand. These relationships are complex and highly variable, causing a variety of environmental impacts at local, regional and global scales. Human exposures and health impacts for air pollutants have the potential to be altered by changes in climate through multiple factors that drive population exposures to these pollutants. Research on this topic will provide both state and local governments with the tools and scientific knowledge base to undertake any necessary adaptation of the air pollution regulations and/or public health management systems in the face of climate change.

  6. The influence of human activity in the Arctic on climate and climate impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huntington, H.P. [23834 The Clearing Dr., Eagle River, AK 99577 (United States); Boyle, M. [Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6S 1K4 (Canada); Flowers, G.E. [Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6 (Canada); Weatherly, J.W. [Snow and Ice Division, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, 72 Lyme Road, Hanover, NH 03755 (United States); Hamilton, L.C. [Department of Sociology, University of New Hampshire, 20 College Road, Durham, NH 03824 (United States); Hinzman, L. [Water and Environment Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 755860, Fairbanks, AK 99775 (United States); Gerlach, C. [Department of Anthropology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 757720, Fairbanks, AK 99775 (United States); Zulueta, R. [Department of Biology, Global Change Research Group, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, PS-240, San Diego, CA 92182 (United States); Nicolson, C. [Department of Natural Resources Conservation, University of Massachusetts, 160 Holdsworth Way, Amherst, MA , 01003 (United States); Overpeck, J. [Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, 715 North Park Avenue, 2nd Floor, Tucson, AZ, 85721 (United States)

    2007-05-15

    Human activities in the Arctic are often mentioned as recipients of climate-change impacts. In this paper we consider the more complicated but more likely possibility that human activities themselves can interact with climate or environmental change in ways that either mitigate or exacerbate the human impacts. Although human activities in the Arctic are generally assumed to be modest, our analysis suggests that those activities may have larger influences on the arctic system than previously thought. Moreover, human influences could increase substantially in the near future. First, we illustrate how past human activities in the Arctic have combined with climatic variations to alter biophysical systems upon which fisheries and livestock depend. Second, we describe how current and future human activities could precipitate or affect the timing of major transitions in the arctic system. Past and future analyses both point to ways in which human activities in the Arctic can substantially influence the trajectory of arctic system change.

  7. Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

    2016-01-01

    Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

  9. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-11-07

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

  10. A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using an integrated modeling methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposu...

  11. Holocene evolution of the Tabasco delta – Mexico : impact of climate, volcanism and humans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooren, C.A.M.

    2017-01-01

    This research revealed the impact of climate, volcanism and humans on the late Holocene evolution of a tropical delta in southern Mexico. Palynological, tephrochronological, limnological, geomorphological and sedimentological techniques have been applied to reconstruct the evolution of the

  12. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephanie K. Moore; Vera L. Trainer; Nathan J. Mantua; Micaela S. Parker; Edward A. Laws; Lorraine C. Backer; Lora E. Fleming

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes...

  13. Characterizing the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposures to ozone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dionisio, Kathie L; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Graham, Stephen; Caraway, Nina; Foley, Kristen M; Isaacs, Kristin K

    2017-05-01

    The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O 3 exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O 3 exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O 3 exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O 3 are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics. These results indicate the potential for future changes in O 3 exposure as a result of changes in climate that could impact human health.

  14. Weather and Climate Change Impacts on Human Mortality in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Katrin; Lesk, Corey; Bader, Daniel; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Weather and climate profoundly affect human health. Several studies have demonstrated a U-, V-, or J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship with increasing death rates at the lower and particularly upper end of the temperature distribution. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in Bangladesh for different subpopulations and (2) to project future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. We used (non-)parametric Generalized Additive Models adjusted for trend, season and day of the month to analyze the effect of temperature on daily mortality. We found a decrease in mortality with increasing temperature over a wide range of values; between the 90th and 95th percentile an abrupt increase in mortality was observed which was particularly pronounced for the elderly above the age of 65 years, for males, as well as in urban areas and in areas with a high socio-economic status. Daily historical and future temperature values were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. This dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The derived dose-response functions were used to estimate the number of heat-related deaths occurring during the 1990s (1980-2005), the 2020s (2011-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2070). We estimated that excess deaths due to heat will triple from the 1990s to the 2050s, with an annual number of 0.5 million excess deaths in 1990 to and expected number of 1.5 millions in 2050.

  15. Human Impacts on the Hydrologic Cycle: Comparing Global Climate Change and Local Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2010-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is significantly altering the hydrologic cycle at global and regional scales, with potentially devastating impacts on water resources. Recent studies demonstrate that hydrologic response to climate change will depend on local-scale feedbacks between groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes. These studies suggest that local water management practices that alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system—e.g., groundwater pumping and irrigation—may also feed back across the hydrologic cycle, with impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes and thus weather and climate. Here we use an integrated hydrologic model to compare the impacts of large-scale climate change and local water management practices on water and energy budgets at local and watershed scales. We consider three climate scenarios (hot, hot+wet, and hot+dry) and three management scenarios (pumping only, irrigation only, and pumping+irrigation). Results demonstrate that impacts of local water management on basin-integrated groundwater storage, evapotranspiration, and stream discharge are comparable to those of changing climate conditions. However, impacts of climate change are shown to have a smaller magnitude and greater spatial extent, while impacts of pumping and irrigation are shown to have a greater magnitude but are local to areas where pumping and irrigation occur. These results have important implications regarding the scales of human impacts on both water resources and climate and the sustainability of water resources.

  16. A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposures due to these impacts was developed by linking climate, air quality, land-use, and human exposure models. This methodology was then applied to characterize changes in predicted human exposures to O3 under multiple future scenarios. Regional climate projections for the U.S. were developed by downscaling global circulation model (GCM) scenarios for three of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The regional climate results were in turn used to generate air quality (concentration) projections using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. For each of the climate change scenarios, future U.S. census-tract level population distributions from the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) model for four future scenarios based on the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) storylines were used. These climate, air quality, and population projections were used as inputs to EPA’s Air Pollutants Exposure (APEX) model for 12 U.S. cities. Probability density functions show changes in the population distribution of 8 h maximum daily O3 exposur

  17. Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

    2015-12-04

    Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow.

  18. Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Stewardson, Michael J.; Peel, Murray C.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Wada, Yoshihide; Ravalico, Jakin K.

    2017-01-01

    The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

  19. Human health impacts in a changing South African climate

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wright, CY

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is projected to lead to warmer temperatures, especially in southern Africa, where the warming is predicted to be 2°C higher than the global increase. Given the high burden of disease already associated with environmental factors...

  20. A GIS framework for the assessment of tick impact on human health in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada-Peña, Agustin; Venzal, José M

    2007-05-01

    A framework to evaluate the impact of ticks on human health under various scenarios of climate change is proposed. The purpose is not to provide a comprehensive plan (e.g. the economic impact of ticks on human society is not included), instead we wish to describe a series of indices that would be helpful by obtaining homogeneous comparisons of impact and vulnerability exerted by ticks in different regions, countries or continents, using normalized sets of population, vegetation, climate and physical attributes of the territory. Three tick species, i.e. Dermacentor marginatus, Rhipicephalus turanicus and Hyalomma marginatum, have been traced over the territory of Spain to further explain the computation of these indices. The discussion is based on tick habitat suitability, used as a measure of the abiotic (climate) fitness of the habitat for the species in question, and the sensitivity of each tick species to the rate of change of habitat suitability with respect to climate change. The impact is the rate of change in habitat suitability weighted with a fuzzy logic function evaluating the total number of people in an area, percent of rural population and accessibility of the geographical divisions (expressed as hexagons with a 10 km radius) used in the study. The different climate scenarios evaluated in relation to ticks show that the north-western part of Spain would suffer the greatest impact in case the mean temperature would increase, while the Mediterranean region would suffer the highest impact if temperatures decreased. Vulnerability, based on the sanitary structure of the territory and on the impact on human activities due to the change in tick distribution and abundance, is proposed as a measure of adaptation of society to these climate scenarios. The cost is evaluated as a function of land use and tick habitat suitability in a buffer zone surrounding each geographic division. All indices proposed have been obtained by search of common and/or publicly

  1. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takemoto, Kazuhiro; Kajihara, Kosuke

    2016-01-01

    Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming), whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

  2. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhiro Takemoto

    Full Text Available Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming, whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

  3. Human and climate impacts on global water resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819

    2013-01-01

    Over past decades, terrestrial water fluxes have been affected by humans at an unprecedented scale and the fingerprints that humans have left on Earth’s water resources are turning up in a diverse range of records. In this thesis, a state-of-the-art global hydrological model (GHM) and global water

  4. Impact of climate change on human health and health systems in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It is therefore important that Tanzania prepares itself to appropriately address CC impact on human health. It is equally important that policy makers and other stakeholders are engaged in a process to update and adapt priorities, mobilize resources and build interdisciplinary research and implementation capacity on climate ...

  5. Climate impacts on human livelihoods at 1.5° and 2° of warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lissner, Tabea

    2017-04-01

    The measurement of impacts of climate change on socio-economic systems remains challenging and especially multi-dimensional outcome measures remain scarce. Climate impacts can directly affect many dimensions of human livelihoods, which cannot be addressed by monetary assessments alone. Multi-dimensional measures are essential in order to understand the full range of consequences of climate change and to understand the costs that higher levels of warming may have, not only in economic terms, but also in terms of non-market impacts on human livelihood. The AHEAD framework aims at measuring "Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development" in a multi-dimensional framework, allowing to focus on resources and conditions which are a requirement to attain well-being. In this contribution we build on previous implementations of AHEAD and focus on differences in climate impacts at 1.5° and 2° of warming in order to improve our understanding of the societal consequences of these different warming levels.

  6. Impact of climate change on human health and health systems in Tanzania: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mboera, Leonard E G; Mayala, Benjamin K; Kweka, Eliningaya J; Mazigo, Humphrey D

    2011-12-01

    Climate change (CC) has a number of immediate and long-term impacts on the fundamental determinants of human health. A number of potential human health effects have been associated either directly or indirectly with global climate change. Vulnerability to the risks associated with CC may exacerbate ongoing socio-economic challenges. The objective of this review was to analyse the potential risk and vulnerability in the context of climate-sensitive human diseases and health system in Tanzania. Climate sensitive vector- and waterborne diseases and other health related problems and the policies on climate adaptation in Tanzania during the past 50 years are reviewed. The review has shown that a number of climate-associated infectious disease epidemics have been reported in various areas of the country; mostly being associated with increase in precipitation and temperature. Although, there is no single policy document that specifically addresses issues of CC in the country, the National Environmental Management Act of 1997 recognizes the importance of CC and calls for the government to put up measures to address the phenomenon. A number of strategies and action plans related to CC are also in place. These include the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan, the National Action Programme, and the National Bio-safety Framework. The government has put in place a National Climate Change Steering Committee and the National Climate Change Technical Committee to oversee and guide the implementation of CC activities in the country. Recognizing the adverse impacts of natural disasters and calamities, the government established a Disaster Management Division under the Prime Minister's Office. Epidemic Preparedness and Response Unit of the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare is responsible for emergency preparedness, mostly disease outbreaks. However, specific climate changes associated with human health issues are poorly addressed in the MoHSW strategies and the national

  7. Climate change, ozone depletion and the impact on ultraviolet exposure of human skin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diffey, Brian

    2004-01-01

    For 30 years there has been concern that anthropogenic damage to the Earth's stratospheric ozone layer will lead to an increase of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the Earth's surface, with a consequent adverse impact on human health, especially to the skin. More recently, there has been an increased awareness of the interactions between ozone depletion and climate change (global warming), which could also impact on human exposure to terrestrial UV. The most serious effect of changing UV exposure of human skin is the potential rise in incidence of skin cancers. Risk estimates of this disease associated with ozone depletion suggest that an additional peak incidence of 5000 cases of skin cancer per year in the UK would occur around the mid-part of this century. Climate change, which is predicted to lead to an increased frequency of extreme temperature events and high summer temperatures, will become more frequent in the UK. This could impact on human UV exposure by encouraging people to spend more time in the sun. Whilst future social trends remain uncertain, it is likely that over this century behaviour associated with climate change, rather than ozone depletion, will be the largest determinant of sun exposure, and consequent impact on skin cancer, of the UK population. (topical review)

  8. Understanding and Projecting Climate and Human Impacts on Terrestrial-Coastal Carbon and Nutrient Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; Tian, H.; He, R.; Fennel, K.

    2017-12-01

    Changing climate and land use practices have the potential to dramatically alter coupled hydrologic-biogeochemical processes and associated movement of water, carbon and nutrients through various terrestrial reservoirs into rivers, estuaries, and coastal ocean waters. Consequences of climate- and land use-related changes will be particularly evident in large river basins and their associated coastal outflow regions. Here, we describe a NASA Carbon Monitoring System project that employs an integrated suite of models in conjunction with remotely sensed as well as targeted in situ observations with the objectives of describing processes controlling fluxes on land and their coupling to riverine, estuarine and ocean ecosystems. The nature of our approach, coupling models of terrestrial and ocean ecosystem dynamics and associated carbon processes, allows for assessment of how societal and human-related land use, land use change and forestry and climate-related change affect terrestrial carbon transport as well as export of materials through watersheds to the coastal margins. Our objectives include the following: 1) Provide representation of carbon processes in the terrestrial ecosystem to understand how changes in land use and climatic conditions influence the export of materials to the coastal ocean, 2) Couple the terrestrial exports of carbon, nutrients and freshwater to a coastal biogeochemical model and examine how different climate and land use scenarios influence fluxes across the land-ocean interface, and 3) Project future changes under different scenarios of climate and human impact, and support user needs related to carbon management and other activities (e.g., water quality, hypoxia, ocean acidification). This research is providing information that will contribute to determining an overall carbon balance in North America as well as describing and predicting how human- and climate-related changes impact coastal water quality including possible effects of coastal

  9. Understanding The Individual Impacts Of Human Interventions And Climate Change On Hydrologic Variables In India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, T.; Chhabra, S., Jr.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    We have quantified the historical climate change and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change impacts on the hydrologic variables of Indian subcontinent by using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) mesoscale model at 0.5° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. The results indicate that the climate change in India has predominating effects on the basic water balance components such as water yield, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This analysis is with the assumption of naturalised hydrologic cycle, i.e., the impacts of human interventions like construction of controlled (primarily dams, diversions and reservoirs) and water withdrawals structures are not taken into account. The assumption is unrealistic since there are numerous anthropogenic disturbances which result in large changes on vegetation composition and distribution patterns. These activities can directly or indirectly influence the dynamics of water cycle; subsequently affecting the hydrologic processes like plant transpiration, infiltration, evaporation, runoff and sublimation. Here, we have quantified the human interventions by using the reservoir and irrigation module of VIC model which incorporates the irrigation schemes, reservoir characteristics and water withdrawals. The impact of human interventions on hydrologic variables in many grids are found more predominant than climate change and might be detrimental to water resources at regional level. This spatial pattern of impacts will facilitate water manager and planners to design and station hydrologic structures for a sustainable water resources management.

  10. Climate Change Impacts on Environmental and Human Exposure to Mercury in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Banel, Anna; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Rautio, Arja

    2015-01-01

    This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on population groups in the Arctic under climate change conditions. The paper also includes information about the likely synergy effects (co-benefits) current and new climate change polices and mitigation options might have on mercury emissions reductions in the future. The review concludes that reductions of mercury emission from anthropogenic sources worldwide would need to be introduced as soon as possible in order to assure lowering the adverse impact of climate change on human health. Scientific information currently available, however, is not in the position to clearly answer whether climate change will increase or decrease the risk of exposure to mercury in the Arctic. New research should therefore be undertaken to model the relationships between climate change and mercury exposure. PMID:25837201

  11. Climate change impacts on environmental and human exposure to mercury in the arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M; Banel, Anna; Pacyna, Elisabeth G; Rautio, Arja

    2015-03-31

    This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on population groups in the Arctic under climate change conditions. The paper also includes information about the likely synergy effects (co-benefits) current and new climate change polices and mitigation options might have on mercury emissions reductions in the future. The review concludes that reductions of mercury emission from anthropogenic sources worldwide would need to be introduced as soon as possible in order to assure lowering the adverse impact of climate change on human health. Scientific information currently available, however, is not in the position to clearly answer whether climate change will increase or decrease the risk of exposure to mercury in the Arctic. New research should therefore be undertaken to model the relationships between climate change and mercury exposure.

  12. The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stowell, Jennifer D; Kim, Young-Min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S; Chang, Howard H; Liu, Yang

    2017-11-01

    Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O 3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O 3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O 3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O 3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O 3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O 3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 -related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Müller Schmied

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean. Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.

  14. Intensifying Insecurities: The impact of climate change on vulnerability to human trafficking in the Indian Sundarbans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole Molinari

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Despite an enormous amount of attention paid to the factors that shape vulnerability to human trafficking, such as poverty and a lack of economic opportunity, the debate of evidence for what enables these factors to exist in the first place is relatively less explored. Presently, discussions of the relationship between climate change and human insecurity have been marginal to broader debates about vulnerability to trafficking. This paper argues that this signifies a gap in our understanding of the underlying drivers that push individuals and communities into situations where vulnerability to trafficking amplifies, but also that increase the pull of risky migration pathways and exploitative work situations. This paper proceeds by examining and problematising dominant conceptualisations of vulnerability in human trafficking and climate change discourses. Next, it presents a case study of the Sundarbans region of India to highlight how climate change impacts compound and exacerbate the same factors that shape vulnerability to human trafficking—including environmental degradation, loss of livelihood, destitution, and forced migration. Lastly, it argues for enhanced attention to climate change-related insecurity as evidence of vulnerability to trafficking and outlines what such insights can bring to anti-trafficking efforts.

  15. Climate Change Education on Public Health Consequences and Impacts to the Human System - An Interdisciplinary Approach to Promoting Climate Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matiella Novak, M.; Paxton, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    - someone not like you. On the other hand, public health impacts are felt by millions and lead to very high costs and those impacts are something with which most people have direct experiences. We will discuss, for example, how climate change can be framed as a cost/benefit problem by looking at the long term costs of increase in disease and illness such as the startling trends in childhood asthma. Changes in water availability, and water and air quality, will result from a warming climate, with measureable consequences for public health: disease spread, food and water security, respiratory health, etc. By integrating this information with education efforts, society, educators and decision makers will have a better understanding of how climate change affects the human system, and what decisions can be made at the individual and community levels to mitigate and adapt to climate change. We will show how this can be achieved.

  16. Impacts of human activity modes and climate on heavy metal "spread" in groundwater are biased.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ming; Qin, Xiaosheng; Zeng, Guangming; Li, Jian

    2016-06-01

    Groundwater quality deterioration has attracted world-wide concerns due to its importance for human water supply. Although more and more studies have shown that human activities and climate are changing the groundwater status, an investigation on how different groundwater heavy metals respond to human activity modes (e.g. mining, waste disposal, agriculture, sewage effluent and complex activity) in a varying climate has been lacking. Here, for each of six heavy metals (i.e. Fe, Zn, Mn, Pb, Cd and Cu) in groundwater, we use >330 data points together with mixed-effect models to indicate that (i) human activity modes significantly influence the Cu and Mn but not Zn, Fe, Pb and Cd levels, and (ii) annual mean temperature (AMT) only significantly influences Cu and Pb levels, while annual precipitation (AP) only significantly affects Fe, Cu and Mn levels. Given these differences, we suggest that the impacts of human activity modes and climate on heavy metal "spread" in groundwater are biased. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Potential impact of climate change on air pollution-related human health effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagaris, Efthimios; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Delucia, Anthony J; Deck, Leland; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G

    2009-07-01

    The potential health impact of ambient ozone and PM2.5 concentrations modulated by climate change over the United States is investigated using combined atmospheric and health modeling. Regional air quality modeling for 2001 and 2050 was conducted using CMAQ Modeling System with meteorology from the GISS Global Climate Model, downscaled regionally using MM5,keeping boundary conditions of air pollutants, emission sources, population, activity levels, and pollution controls constant. BenMap was employed to estimate the air pollution health outcomes at the county, state, and national level for 2050 caused by the effect of meteorology on future ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. The changes in calculated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations show a relatively modest change with positive and negative responses (increasing PM2.5 levels across the northeastern U.S.) although average ozone levels slightly decrease across the northern sections of the U.S., and increase across the southern tier. Results suggest that climate change driven air quality-related health effects will be adversely affected in more then 2/3 of the continental U.S. Changes in health effects induced by PM2.5 dominate compared to those caused by ozone. PM2.5-induced premature mortality is about 15 times higher then that due to ozone. Nationally the analysis suggests approximately 4000 additional annual premature deaths due to climate change impacts on PM2.5 vs 300 due to climate change-induced ozone changes. However, the impacts vary spatially. Increased premature mortality due to elevated ozone concentrations will be offset by lower mortality from reductions in PM2.5 in 11 states. Uncertainties related to different emissions projections used to simulate future climate, and the uncertainties forecasting the meteorology, are large although there are potentially important unaddressed uncertainties (e.g., downscaling, speciation, interaction, exposure, and concentration-response function of the human health studies).

  18. Perceptions of climate change and its impact on human health: an integrated quantitative and qualitative approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toan, Do Thi Thanh; Kien, Vu Duy; Bao Giang, Kim; Van Minh, Hoang; Wright, Pamela

    2014-01-01

    The World Health Organization emphasized that climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, especially in lower income populations and tropical/subtropical countries. However, people in Asia and Africa were the least likely to perceive global warming as a threat. In Vietnam, little research has been conducted concerning the perceptions of effects of climate change on human health. The aim of this study was to explore the perceptions on climate change and its impact on human health among people in Hanoi. We applied a combined quantitative and qualitative approach to study perceptions on climate change among people in Hanoi. A total of 1,444 people were recruited, including 754 people living in non-slum areas and 690 people living in slum areas of Hanoi. A structured questionnaire was used to collect quantitative data on their perceptions. In a parallel qualitative study, two focus group discussions and 12 in-depth interviews (IDs) were carried out involving 24 people from both slum and non-slum areas. The majority of the respondents in the study had heard about climate change and its impact on human health (79.3 and 70.1% in non-slum and slum areas, respectively). About one third of the respondents reported that members of their family had experienced illness in the recent summer and winter compared to the same seasons 5 years ago. The most common symptoms reported during hot weather were headaches, fatigue, and dizziness; hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases were also reported. During cold weather, people reported experiencing cough, fever, and influenza, as well as pneumonia and emerging infectious diseases such as dengue and Japanese encephalitis. The observed high level of awareness on the links between climate change and human health may help to increase the success of the National Prevention Program on Climate Change. Moreover, understanding the concerns of the people may help policy makers to develop and implement effective

  19. Perceptions of climate change and its impact on human health: an integrated quantitative and qualitative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Do Thi Thanh Toan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The World Health Organization emphasized that climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, especially in lower income populations and tropical/subtropical countries. However, people in Asia and Africa were the least likely to perceive global warming as a threat. In Vietnam, little research has been conducted concerning the perceptions of effects of climate change on human health. Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the perceptions on climate change and its impact on human health among people in Hanoi. Design: We applied a combined quantitative and qualitative approach to study perceptions on climate change among people in Hanoi. A total of 1,444 people were recruited, including 754 people living in non-slum areas and 690 people living in slum areas of Hanoi. A structured questionnaire was used to collect quantitative data on their perceptions. In a parallel qualitative study, two focus group discussions and 12 in-depth interviews (IDs were carried out involving 24 people from both slum and non-slum areas. Results: The majority of the respondents in the study had heard about climate change and its impact on human health (79.3 and 70.1% in non-slum and slum areas, respectively. About one third of the respondents reported that members of their family had experienced illness in the recent summer and winter compared to the same seasons 5 years ago. The most common symptoms reported during hot weather were headaches, fatigue, and dizziness; hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases were also reported. During cold weather, people reported experiencing cough, fever, and influenza, as well as pneumonia and emerging infectious diseases such as dengue and Japanese encephalitis. Conclusions: The observed high level of awareness on the links between climate change and human health may help to increase the success of the National Prevention Program on Climate Change. Moreover, understanding the concerns of

  20. Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health

    OpenAIRE

    Gutierrez, Kristie S.; LePrevost, Catherine E.

    2016-01-01

    Climate justice is a local, national, and global movement to protect at-risk populations who are disproportionately affected by climate change. The social context for this review is the Southeastern region of the United States, which is particularly susceptible to climate change because of the geography of the area and the vulnerabilities of the inhabiting populations. Negative human health effects on variable and vulnerable populations within the Southeast region due to changing climate are ...

  1. An Analytic Equation Partitioning Climate Variation and Human Impacts on River Sediment Load

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Gao, G.; Fu, B.

    2017-12-01

    Spatial or temporal patterns and process-based equations could co-exist in hydrologic model. Yet, existing approaches quantifying the impacts of those variables on river sediment load (RSL) changes are found to be severely limited, and new ways to evaluate the contribution of these variables are thus needed. Actually, the Newtonian modeling is hardly achievable for this process due to the limitation of both observations and knowledge of mechanisms, whereas laws based on the Darwinian approach could provide one component of a developed hydrologic model. Since that streamflow is the carrier of suspended sediment, sediment load changes are documented in changes of streamflow and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) - water discharge relationships. Consequently, an analytic equation for river sediment load changes are proposed to explicitly quantify the relative contributions of climate variation and direct human impacts on river sediment load changes. Initially, the sediment rating curve, which is of great significance in RSL changes analysis, was decomposed as probability distribution of streamflow and the corresponding SSC - water discharge relationships at equally spaced discharge classes. Furthermore, a proposed segmentation algorithm based on the fractal theory was used to decompose RSL changes attributed to these two portions. Additionally, the water balance framework was utilized and the corresponding elastic parameters were calculated. Finally, changes in climate variables (i.e. precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) and direct human impacts on river sediment load could be figured out. By data simulation, the efficiency of the segmentation algorithm was verified. The analytic equation provides a superior Darwinian approach partitioning climate and human impacts on RSL changes, as only data series of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and SSC - water discharge are demanded.

  2. Costs of climate impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, W O

    1980-03-01

    The surest prospect for future world climate patterns is that they will differ from present ones. What is uncertain is how much, and exactly in what way in different geographical regions. The anthropogenic CO/sub 2/ increase will probably exceed the unknown forcing functions of natural climate change within 30 to 60 years. It is not unlikely that by AD 2040 the world's climate, driven by the CO/sub 2/ increase, will enter a domain warmer than any within the past few million years. The costs of averting this climate change or of absorbing its impact are likely to be huge, even though today imponderable. Not least among these are intangible and unquantifiable costs associated with changes in human values and the quality of everyday life for future generations.

  3. Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Three Gorges Reservoir Inflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Identifying changes in runoff and quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities are of great significance for water resources planning and management in a river basin. In this study, an inflow series of the Three Gorges Reservoir observed from 1951 to 2016 is used to identify the trend and abrupt change point by using statistical methods. Based on the meteorological data, soil type data, and land use data during the same period, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model is established to quantitatively attribute changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow to climate change and human activities separately and discuss the differences between the two-stage method, which divides the whole study period into two stages to analyze the reasons for runoff evolution, and multi-stage method, which divides the whole study period into more stages to consider the temporal and spatial variation of land use/cover (LULC. The results show: (1 During the study period, a significant decrease is detected in the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow and the decrease rate is 7.7 km3 per ten years, annual total precipitation decreases by −13.5 mm per ten years, and annual average temperature increases by 0.1 °C per ten years. (2 Contribution of climate change and human activities is around 7:3. Climate change is the main reason for the decrease in the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow. (3 Results of stages in multi-stage method are different from the result of two-stage method. Accumulative results of multi-stage method and result of two-stage method are consistent. There are some changes in results of every stage, which are different from the accumulative results.

  4. Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Briggs, David; Freyberg, Chris; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias; Hyatt, Olivia

    2016-01-01

    Ambient heat exposure is a well-known health hazard, which reduces human performance and work capacity at heat levels already common in tropical and subtropical areas. Various health problems have been reported. Increasing heat exposure during the hottest seasons of each year is a key feature of global climate change. Heat exhaustion and reduced human performance are often overlooked in climate change health impact analysis. Later this century, many among the four billion people who live in hot areas worldwide will experience significantly reduced work capacity owing to climate change. In some areas, 30-40% of annual daylight hours will become too hot for work to be carried out. The social and economic impacts will be considerable, with global gross domestic product (GDP) losses greater than 20% by 2100. The analysis to date is piecemeal. More analysis of climate change-related occupational health impact assessments is greatly needed.

  5. Evaluating Modeled Impact Metrics for Human Health, Agriculture Growth, and Near-Term Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seltzer, K. M.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Murray, L. T.

    2017-12-01

    Simulated metrics that assess impacts on human health, agriculture growth, and near-term climate were evaluated using ground-based and satellite observations. The NASA GISS ModelE2 and GEOS-Chem models were used to simulate the near-present chemistry of the atmosphere. A suite of simulations that varied by model, meteorology, horizontal resolution, emissions inventory, and emissions year were performed, enabling an analysis of metric sensitivities to various model components. All simulations utilized consistent anthropogenic global emissions inventories (ECLIPSE V5a or CEDS), and an evaluation of simulated results were carried out for 2004-2006 and 2009-2011 over the United States and 2014-2015 over China. Results for O3- and PM2.5-based metrics featured minor differences due to the model resolutions considered here (2.0° × 2.5° and 0.5° × 0.666°) and model, meteorology, and emissions inventory each played larger roles in variances. Surface metrics related to O3 were consistently high biased, though to varying degrees, demonstrating the need to evaluate particular modeling frameworks before O3 impacts are quantified. Surface metrics related to PM2.5 were diverse, indicating that a multimodel mean with robust results are valuable tools in predicting PM2.5-related impacts. Oftentimes, the configuration that captured the change of a metric best over time differed from the configuration that captured the magnitude of the same metric best, demonstrating the challenge in skillfully simulating impacts. These results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these models in simulating impact metrics related to air quality and near-term climate. With such information, the reliability of historical and future simulations can be better understood.

  6. Impact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, Shereif H; Gan, Thian Y

    2018-08-15

    The implications of anthropogenic climate change, human activities and land use change (LUC) on the environment and ecosystem services in the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia were analyzed. Earth observations data was used to drive land use categories between 1970 and 2014. Next, a Markov-CA model was developed to characterize the dynamic of LUC between 2014 and 2100 and their impacts on regions' climate and environment. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases data to investigate the presence of anthropogenic climate change. Lastly, climate models were used to project future climate change between 2014 and 2100. The analysis of LUC revealed that between 1970 and 2014, built up areas experienced the greatest growth during the study period, leading to a significant monotonic trend. Urban areas increased by 2349.61km 2 between 1970 and 2014, an average increase of >53.4km 2 /yr. The projected LUC between 2014 and 2100 indicate a continued increase in urban areas and irrigated cropland. Human alteration of land use from natural vegetation and forests to other uses after 1970, resulted in a loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which usually have devastating effects on the biodiversity of the region. Resulting in a statistically significant change point in temperature anomaly after 1968 with a warming trend of 0.24°C/decade and a downward trend in precipitation anomaly of 12.2mm/decade. Total greenhouse gas emissions including all anthropogenic sources showed a statistically significant positive trend of 78,090Kt/decade after 1991. This is reflected in the future projection of temperature anomaly between 1900 and 2100 with a future warming trend of 0.19°C/decade. In conclusion, human activities, industrial revelation, deforestation, land use transformation and increase in greenhouse gases had significant implications on the environment and ecosystem services of the study area

  7. Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Kristie S; LePrevost, Catherine E

    2016-02-03

    Climate justice is a local, national, and global movement to protect at-risk populations who are disproportionately affected by climate change. The social context for this review is the Southeastern region of the United States, which is particularly susceptible to climate change because of the geography of the area and the vulnerabilities of the inhabiting populations. Negative human health effects on variable and vulnerable populations within the Southeast region due to changing climate are concerning, as health threats are not expected to produce parallel effects among all individuals. Vulnerable communities, such as communities of color, indigenous people, the geographically isolated, and those who are socioeconomically disadvantaged and already experiencing poor environmental quality, are least able to respond and adapt to climate change. Focusing on vulnerable populations in the Southeastern United States, this review is a synthesis of the recent (2010 to 2015) literature-base on the health effects connected to climate change. This review also addresses local and regional mitigation and adaptation strategies for citizens and leaders to combat direct and indirect human health effects related to a changing climate.

  8. European research on Climat change impact on human health and environment

    OpenAIRE

    Pogonysheva I. A.; Kuznetsova V. P.; Pogonyshev D. A.; Lunyak I. I.

    2018-01-01

    European countries have accumulated a considerable body of research that proves both direct and indirect influence of climate change on human health. The article analyses “Protecting health in an environment challenged by climate change: European Regional Framework for Action”. The article gives a detailed analysis of the work of European Office of World Health Organisation and The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe related to climate change.

  9. Human impacts on terrestrial hydrology: climate change versus pumping and irrigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, Ian M; Maxwell, Reed M

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is altering terrestrial water and energy budgets, with subsequent impacts on surface and groundwater resources; recent studies have shown that local water management practices such as groundwater pumping and irrigation similarly alter terrestrial water and energy budgets over many agricultural regions, with potential feedbacks on weather and climate. Here we use a fully-integrated hydrologic model to directly compare effects of climate change and water management on terrestrial water and energy budgets of a representative agricultural watershed in the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, USA. At local scales, we find that the impacts of pumping and irrigation on latent heat flux, potential recharge and water table depth are similar in magnitude to the impacts of changing temperature and precipitation; however, the spatial distributions of climate and management impacts are substantially different. At the basin scale, the impacts on stream discharge and groundwater storage are remarkably similar. Notably, for the watershed and scenarios studied here, the changes in groundwater storage and stream discharge in response to a 2.5 °C temperature increase are nearly equivalent to those from groundwater-fed irrigation. Our results imply that many semi-arid basins worldwide that practice groundwater pumping and irrigation may already be experiencing similar impacts on surface water and groundwater resources to a warming climate. These results demonstrate that accurate assessment of climate change impacts and development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies must account for local water management practices. (letter)

  10. Geochemical Dataset of the Rhone River Delta (Lake Geneva) Sediments - Disentangling Human Impacts from Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, T. A.; Girardclos, S.; Loizeau, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    Lake sediment records are often the most complete continental archives. In the last 200 years, in addition to climatic variability, humans have strongly impacted lake watersheds around the world. During the 20th century the Rhone River and its watershed upstream Lake Geneva (Switzerland/France) have been subject to river channelization, dam construction, water flow regulation, water and sediment abstraction as well as various land use changes. Under the scope of the SEDFATE project (Swiss National Science Foundation nº147689) we address human and climatic impact on the sediment transfer from the Rhone River watershed to Lake Geneva. Nineteen short sediment cores were collected in the Rhone River delta area in May 2014. Cores have been scanned with MSCL and XRF, sub-sampled every 1cm and 8 cores were dated by radiometric methods (137Cs and 210Pb). Photographs taken right after core opening were used for lithological description and in addition to MSCL data were used to correlate cores. Core dating shows that mass accumulation rates decreased in the 1964-1986 interval and then increased again in the interval between 1986-2014. XRF elements and ratios, known to indicate detrital sources (Al, Al/Si, Fe, K, Mn, Rb, Si, Ti, Ti/Ca), show that clastic input diminished from 1964 to 1986 and re-increased to the present. Other elemental (Zr/Rb, Zr/K, Si/Ti) and geophysical data (magnetic susceptibility) combined with lithology identify density flow deposits vs hemipelagic sedimentation. Changes in frequency of these event deposits indicate changes in the sedimentation patterns in the Rhone River sublacustrine delta during the last century. From these results we hypothesize that a significant sediment amount was abstracted from the system after the major dam constructions in the 1950's and that, since the 1990's, a contrary signal is due to increased sediment loads that follows glacial melting due to global warming.

  11. An integrated hydrological modeling approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts on coastal water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Dapeng; Zheng, Yi; Mao, Yixin; Zhang, Aijing; Wu, Bin; Li, Jinguo; Tian, Yong; Wu, Xin

    2018-02-01

    Water resources in coastal areas can be profoundly influenced by both climate change and human activities. These climatic and human impacts are usually intertwined and difficult to isolate. This study developed an integrated model-based approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts and applied this approach to the Luanhe Plain, a typical coastal area in northern China. An integrated surface water-groundwater model was developed for the study area using GSFLOW (coupled groundwater and surface-water flow). Model calibration and validation were performed for background years between 1975 and 2000. The variation in water resources between the 1980s and 1990s was then quantitatively attributed to climate variability, groundwater pumping and changes in upstream inflow. Climate scenarios for future years (2075-2100) were also developed by downscaling the projections in CMIP5. Potential water resource responses to climate change, as well as their uncertainty, were then investigated through integrated modeling. The study results demonstrated the feasibility and value of the integrated modeling-based analysis for water resource management in areas with complex surface water-groundwater interaction. Specific findings for the Luanhe Plain included the following: (1) During the historical period, upstream inflow had the most significant impact on river outflow to the sea, followed by climate variability, whereas groundwater pumping was the least influential. (2) The increase in groundwater pumping had a dominant influence on the decline in groundwater change, followed by climate variability. (3) Synergetic and counteractive effects among different impacting factors, while identified, were not significant, which implied that the interaction among different factors was not very strong in this case. (4) It is highly probable that future climate change will accelerate groundwater depletion in the study area, implying that strict regulations for groundwater

  12. Exploring the impact of climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum on the pattern of human occupation of Iberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Ariane; Levavasseur, Guillaume; James, Patrick M A; Guiducci, Dario; Izquierdo, Manuel Arturo; Bourgeon, Lauriane; Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles; Vrac, Mathieu

    2014-08-01

    The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was a global climate event, which had significant repercussions for the spatial distribution and demographic history of prehistoric populations. In Eurasia, the LGM coincides with a potential bottleneck for modern humans and may mark the divergence date for Asian and European populations (Keinan et al., 2007). In this research, the impact of climate variability on human populations in the Iberian Peninsula during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is examined with the aid of downscaled high-resolution (16 × 16 km) numerical climate experiments. Human sensitivity to short time-scale (inter-annual) climate variability during this key time period, which follows the initial modern human colonisation of Eurasia and the extinction of the Neanderthals, is tested using the spatial distribution of archaeological sites. Results indicate that anatomically modern human populations responded to small-scale spatial patterning in climate variability, specifically inter-annual variability in precipitation levels as measured by the standard precipitation index. Climate variability at less than millennial scale, therefore, is shown to be an important component of ecological risk, one that played a role in regulating the spatial behaviour of prehistoric human populations and consequently affected their social networks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Distinguishing the impacts of human activities and climate variability on runoff and sediment load change based on paired periods with similar weather conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Fei; Hessel, Rudi; Mu, Xingmin; Maroulis, Jerry; Zhao, Guangju; Geissen, Violette; Ritsema, Coen

    2015-01-01

    Runoff and sediment loads from river basin are largely affected by the interplay of climate variability and human activities within the basin. However, distinguishing the impacts of climate variability and human activities would vastly improve our knowledge of water resources, climate variability

  14. Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: A review of methodologies and critical assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Pankaj; Mishra, Ashok

    2017-05-01

    Climate change and human activity are two major drivers that alter hydrological cycle processes and cause change in spatio-temporal distribution of water availability. Streamflow, the most important component of hydrological cycle undergoes variation which is expected to be influenced by climate change as well as human activities. Since these two affecting conditions are time dependent, having unequal influence, identification of the change point in natural flow regime is of utmost important to separate the individual impact of climate change and human activities on streamflow variability. Subsequently, it is important as well for framing adaptation strategies and policies for regional water resources planning and management. In this paper, a comprehensive review of different approaches used by research community to isolate the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow are presented. The important issues pertaining to different approaches, to make rational use of methodology, are discussed so that researcher and policymaker can understand the importance of individual methodology and its use in water resources management. A new approach has also been suggested to select a representative change point under different scenarios of human activities with incorporation of climate variability/change.

  15. Climate Change Impacts on Human Health Due to Changes in Ambient Ozone Concentrations (External Review Draft)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report uses results from a previous report titled Assessment of the Impacts of Global Change on Regional U.S. Air Quality: A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts on Ground-Level Ozone, a number of high-resolution, spatially explicit population projections developed ...

  16. Weather and human impacts on forest fires: 100 years of fire history in two climatic regions of Switzerland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zumbrunnen, T.; Pezzatti, B.; Menendez, P.; Bugmann, H.; Brgi, M.; Conedera, M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the factors driving past fire regimes is crucial in the context of global change as a basis for predicting future changes. In this study, we aimed to identify the impact of climate and human activities on fire occurrence in the most fire-prone regions of Switzerland. We considered

  17. Impact of climate change and human activity on soil landscapes over the past 12,300 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothacker, Leo; Dosseto, Anthony; Francke, Alexander; Chivas, Allan R; Vigier, Nathalie; Kotarba-Morley, Anna M; Menozzi, Davide

    2018-01-10

    Soils are key to ecosystems and human societies, and their critical importance requires a better understanding of how they evolve through time. However, identifying the role of natural climate change versus human activity (e.g. agriculture) on soil evolution is difficult. Here we show that for most of the past 12,300 years soil erosion and development were impacted differently by natural climate variability, as recorded by sediments deposited in Lake Dojran (Macedonia/Greece): short-lived ( < 1,000 years) climatic shifts had no effect on soil development but impacted soil erosion. This decoupling disappeared between 3,500 and 3,100 years ago, when the sedimentary record suggests an unprecedented erosion event associated with the development of agriculture in the region. Our results show unambiguously how differently soils evolved under natural climate variability (between 12,300 and 3,500 years ago) and later in response to intensifying human impact. The transition from natural to anthropogenic landscape started just before, or at, the onset of the Greek 'Dark Ages' (~3,200 cal yr BP). This could represent the earliest recorded sign of a negative feedback between civilization and environmental impact, where the development of agriculture impacted soil resources, which in turn resulted in a slowdown of civilization expansion.

  18. Climatic Change. Human Influence?

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Dionísio; Leite, Solange; Ribeiro, A.C.; Figueiredo, Tomás de

    2016-01-01

    We begin by presenting the functioning of the Climate System and the variety of climates that occurs on the surface of the globe. We analyze climate change based on the sun's orbital parameters and other causes, focusing on the current interglacial period and the influence it had on the development of human societies. The following text looks on developing of the climate of the last 1000 years, with considerations about the warm medieval climate, the little ice age, the recovery...

  19. Identification of the Impacts of Climate Changes and Human Activities on Runoff in the Jinsha River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaowan Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the impacts of climate changes and human activities on runoff has received extensive attention, especially for the regions with significant elevation difference. The contributions of climate changes and human activities to runoff were analyzed using rainfall-runoff relationship, double mass curve, slope variation, and water balance method during 1961–2010 at the Jinsha River basin, China. Results indicate that runoff at upstream and runoff at midstream are both dominated by climate changes, and the contributions of climate changes to runoff are 63%~72% and 53%~68%, respectively. At downstream, climate changes account for only 13%~18%, and runoff is mainly controlled by human activities, contributing 82%~87%. The availability and stability of results were compared and analyzed in the four methods. Results in slope variation, double mass curve, and water balance method except rainfall-runoff relationship method are of good agreement. And the rainfall-runoff relationship, double mass curve, and slope variation method are all of great stability. The four methods and availability evaluation of them could provide a reference to quantification in the contributions of climate changes and human activities to runoff at similar basins in the future.

  20. The Social Impact of Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    Managing climate change requires that we understand the social value of climate-related decisions. Rational decision-making demands that we weigh the potential benefits of climate-related investments against their costs. To date, it has been challenging to quantify the relative social benefit of living under different climatic conditions, so policy debates tend to focus on investment costs without considering their benefits. Here I will discuss challenges and advances in the measurement of climate's impact on society. By linking data and methods across physical and social sciences, we are beginning to understand when, where, and how climatic conditions have a causal impact on human wellbeing. I will present examples from this burgeoning interdisciplinary field that quantify the effect of temperature on macroeconomic performance, the effects of climate on human conflict, and the long-term health and economic impact of tropical cyclones. Each of these examples provide new insight into previously unknown benefits of various climate management strategies. I conclude by describing new efforts to systematically gather and compare findings from across the research community to support informed and rational climate management decisions.

  1. The impact of residential combustion emissions on atmospheric aerosol, human health, and climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. W. Butt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Combustion of fuels in the residential sector for cooking and heating results in the emission of aerosol and aerosol precursors impacting air quality, human health, and climate. Residential emissions are dominated by the combustion of solid fuels. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to simulate the impact of residential fuel combustion on atmospheric aerosol for the year 2000. The model underestimates black carbon (BC and organic carbon (OC mass concentrations observed over Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa, with better prediction when carbonaceous emissions from the residential sector are doubled. Observed seasonal variability of BC and OC concentrations are better simulated when residential emissions include a seasonal cycle. The largest contributions of residential emissions to annual surface mean particulate matter (PM2.5 concentrations are simulated for East Asia, South Asia, and Eastern Europe. We use a concentration response function to estimate the human health impact due to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 from residential emissions. We estimate global annual excess adult (>  30 years of age premature mortality (due to both cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer to be 308 000 (113 300–497 000, 5th to 95th percentile uncertainty range for monthly varying residential emissions and 517 000 (192 000–827 000 when residential carbonaceous emissions are doubled. Mortality due to residential emissions is greatest in Asia, with China and India accounting for 50 % of simulated global excess mortality. Using an offline radiative transfer model we estimate that residential emissions exert a global annual mean direct radiative effect between −66 and +21 mW m−2, with sensitivity to the residential emission flux and the assumed ratio of BC, OC, and SO2 emissions. Residential emissions exert a global annual mean first aerosol indirect effect of between −52 and −16 mW m−2, which is sensitive to the

  2. Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; O'Connor, Fiona M

    2017-12-05

    This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O 3 air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O 3 but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O 3 entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH 4 ) abundances lead to increases in background O 3 that offset the O 3 decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O 3 - termed the O 3 climate penalty - especially in southern Europe. The O 3 response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O 3 distribution, such as daily maximum O 3 . Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100.A larger number of studies have examined both future climate and emissions changes under the RCP scenarios. Under these pathways the impact of emission changes on air quality out to the 2050s will be larger than that due to climate change, because of large reductions in emissions of O 3 and PM pollutant precursor emissions and the more limited climate change response itself. Climate change will also affect climate extreme events such as heatwaves. Air pollution episodes are associated with stagnation events and sometimes heat waves. Air quality during

  3. Human-induced climate change: the impact of land-use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gries, Thomas; Redlin, Margarete; Ugarte, Juliette Espinosa

    2018-02-01

    For hundreds of years, human activity has modified the planet's surface through land-use practices. Policies and decisions on how land is managed and land-use changes due to replacement of forests by agricultural cropping and grazing lands affect greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural management and agroforestry and the resulting changes to the land surface alter the global carbon cycle as well as the Earth's surface albedo, both of which in turn change the Earth's radiation balance. This makes land-use change the second anthropogenic source of climate change after fossil fuel burning. However, the scientific research community has so far not been able to identify the direction and magnitude of the global impact of land-use change. This paper examines the effects of net carbon flux from land-use change on temperature by applying Granger causality and error correction models. The results reveal a significant positive long-run equilibrium relationship between land-use change and the temperature series as well as an opposing short-term effect such that land-use change tends to lead to global warming; however, a rise in temperature causes a decline in land-use change.

  4. Observed and projected impacts of climate change on marine fisheries, aquaculture, coastal tourism, and human health: an update

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren V Weatherdon

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 states that climate change and ocean acidification are altering the oceans at a rate that is unprecedented compared with the recent past, leading to multifaceted impacts on marine ecosystems, associated goods and services, and human societies. AR5 underlined key uncertainties that remain regarding how synergistic changes in the ocean are likely to affect human systems, and how humans are likely to respond to these events. As climate change research has accelerated rapidly following AR5, an updated synthesis of available knowledge is necessary to identify emerging evidence, and to thereby better inform policy discussions. This paper reviews the literature to capture corroborating, conflicting, and novel findings published following the cut-off date for contribution to AR5. Specifically, we highlight key scientific developments on the impacts of climate-induced changes in the ocean on key socioeconomic sectors, including fisheries, aquaculture and tourism. New evidence continues to support a climate-induced redistribution of benefits and losses at multiple scales and across coastal and marine socio-ecological systems, partly resulting from species and ecosystem range shifts and changes in primary productivity. New efforts have been made to characterize and value ecosystem services in the context of climate change, with specific relevance to ecosystem-based adaptation. Recent studies have also explored synergistic interactions between climatic drivers, and have found strong variability between impacts on species at different life stages. Although climate change may improve conditions for some types of freshwater aquaculture, potentially providing alternative opportunities to adapt to impacts on wild capture fisheries, ocean acidification poses a risk to shellfish fisheries and aquaculture. The risk of increased prevalence of disease under warmer temperatures is

  5. Late-Holocene palaeoenvironments of Southern Crimea: Soils, soil-climate relationship and human impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lisetskii, Fedor N.; Stolba, Vladimir; Pichura, Vitalii I.

    2017-01-01

    Occupying 4% of Crimea’s territory, the sub-Mediterranean landscapes of Southern Crimea stand out for their distinct soil-climatic conditions and record of human activity. This paper presents the results of study of the newly formed and well-dated soils from 21 archaeological sites, making...

  6. How Dry was too Dry? Evaluating the Impact of Climatic Stress on Prehistoric Human Populations in southern Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foerster, V. E.; Asrat, A.; Cohen, A. S.; Junginger, A.; Lamb, H. F.; Schaebitz, F.; Trauth, M. H.; Vogelsang, R.

    2016-12-01

    What role did abrupt climate shifts play in human evolution and the dispersal of Homo sapiens within and beyond the African continent? How did gradual climatic transitions on the other hand affect cultural and technological innovations in the source region of modern humans? In order to evaluate the effect of environmental instability on human evolution, with their cultural and technological innovations, and with their expansion out of Africa, it is essential to understand how the east African climate switches from dry to wet and back to dry. Determining the timespan of both long-term transitions and climate flickers eventually provides the much needed environmental information how much time early humans had to react (evolution, migration, adaption) to the profound changes in their living environment. As a contribution to providing an environmental context to these central questions on human-climate interaction, the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) has successfully completed coring five fluvio-lacustrine archives of climate change during the last 3.5 Ma in East Africa. The five high-priority areas in Ethiopia and Kenya are located in close proximity to key paleoanthropological sites covering various steps in evolution. Here we present a comparison between the youngest part of our continuous climate reconstruction (temporal resolution of up to 3 years) from the Chew Bahir site in southern Ethiopia and the available archaeological record of human presence in the source region of modern humans for the past 20 ka. The results contribute to test hypotheses on the impact of climatic stress on migration, the role of human decision-making and environmental thresholds (Foerster et al., 2015, 2016). Furthermore, we match key technological innovations in the area with the profound environmental changes during the highly debated mid-Holocene wet-dry transition. Finally, we give a first overview over possible phases of climatic stress during the last >500 ka

  7. Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Zinke, Jens; Madin, Joshua; McClanahan, Tim; Vermaat, Jan E

    2013-01-01

    Near-shore coral reef systems are experiencing increased sediment supply due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Counteracting increased sediment loads requires an understanding of the relationship between forest cover and sediment supply, and how this relationship might change in the future. Here we study this relationship by simulating river flow and sediment supply in four watersheds that are adjacent to Madagascar's major coral reef ecosystems for a range of future climate change projections and land-use change scenarios. We show that by 2090, all four watersheds are predicted to experience temperature increases and/or precipitation declines that, when combined, result in decreases in river flow and sediment load. However, these climate change-driven declines are outweighed by the impact of deforestation. Consequently, our analyses suggest that regional land-use management is more important than mediating climate change for influencing sedimentation of Malagasy coral reefs.

  8. European monitoring systems and data for assessing environmental and climate impacts on human infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Gordon L; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C

    2014-04-09

    Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden.

  9. EFFECTS OF HUMAN IMPACTS AND CLIMATE VARIATION ON FORESTS: THE RIETI BASIN SINCE MEDIEVAL TIME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mensing

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available A number of recent paleoenvironmental studies have argued that abrupt changes in climate have been the primary cause for societal collapse. Many social scientists, including anthropologists and environmental historians, reject environmental explanations as deterministic and overly simplistic. They argue that socio-political decisions contribute to environmental change and that efforts to study societal vulnerability within a human-environment system must include analysis of complex social structures. There is a gap in our understanding of how past societies responded to climate change because there are very few interdisciplinary studies that integrate both physical and behavioral sciences in paleoenvironmental reconstructions. While there is a general sense that modern societies are more insulated than pre-industrial societies from the effects of climate change, this may not prove to be true. A more complete understanding of how both natural and human-caused changes have affected the environment in the past can potentially guide decisions aimed at promoting future sustainability. Here we present a project funded by the United States National Science Foundation that will explicitly integrate paleoenvironmental reconstruction with socioeconomic history in a local context to identify linkages between social and environmental change associated with climate variability.

  10. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reysset, Bertrand; Billes-Garabedian, Laurent; Henique, Julien; Pascal, Mathilde; Pirard, Philippe; Motreff, Yvon; Barbault, Robert; Weber, Jacques; Gate, Philippe; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Desplat, Julien; Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaelle

    2012-01-01

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  11. Explanation of climate and human impacts on sediment discharge change in Darwinian hydrology: Derivation of a differential equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianjun; Gao, Guangyao; Fu, Bojie; Zhang, Lu

    2018-04-01

    The assessment for impacts of climate variability and human activities on suspended sediment yield (SSY) change has long been a question of great interest. However, the sediment generation processes are sophisticated with high nonlinearity and great uncertainty, which give rise to extreme complexity for SSY change assessment in Newtonian approach. Consequently, few approaches can be simply but widely applied to decompose impacts of climatic variability and human activities on SSY change. Thus, it is an urgent need to develop advanced methods that are simple and robust. Since that the Newtonian approach is hardly achievable due to limitation of either observations or knowledge of mechanisms, there have been repeated calls to capture the hydrologic system in Darwinian approach for hydrological change prediction or explanation. As streamflow is the carrier of suspended sediment, SSY change are thus documented in changes of sediment concentrated flow and suspended sediment concentration - water discharge (C-Q) relationships. By deduced corollaries, a differential equation of sediment discharge change was derived to explicitly decompose impacts of climate variability and human activities in Darwinian hydrology. Besides, a new form of sediment rating curves was proposed and curved as C-Q relationships and probability distribution of sediment concentrated flow. River sediment flux can be revealed by this representation, which simply elucidates mechanism of SSY generation covering a range of time scales from finer than rainfall-event to long term. By the new sediment rating curves, the differential equation was partly solved using a segmentation algorithm proposed and validated in this paper, and then was submitted to water balance framework expressed by Budyko-type equation. Thus, for catchment management, hydrologists can obtain explicit explanation of how climate variation and human activities propagate through landscape and result in sediment discharge change. The

  12. Climatic change impacts in Lombardia region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiorese, G.; Gatto, M.; De Leo, G.

    2008-01-01

    Climatic change will change significantly our Country through impacts of natural and physical systems, on human health and the productive sectors. This article describes the expected impacts in Lombardia region [it

  13. Climate change: biological and human aspects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonathan Cowie

    2007-07-15

    The textbook provides a broad review of past, present and likely future climate change from the viewpoints of biology, ecology and human ecology. Contents are: 1. An introduction to climate change; 2. Principal indicators of past climates; 3. Past climate change; 4. The Oligocene to the Quaternary: climate and biology; 5. Present climate and biological change; 6. Current warming and likely future impacts; 7. Human ecology of climate change; 8. Sustainability and policy; Appendix 1. Glossary and acronyms; Appendix 2. Bio-geological timescale; Appendix 3. Calculations of energy demand/supply, and orders of magnitude; Index. 69 figs.

  14. A review of the Delta Po evolution (Italy) related to climatic changes and human impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simeoni, Umberto; Corbau, Corinne

    2009-06-01

    Climate changes and sea-level rise are important issues, especially for deltas such as the Po Delta, Italy. The evolution of the Po Delta shows a succession in space and a superposition in time of complex environmental natural processes. During the last few centuries, anthropogenic action has played a major role. The formation of the Po Delta began about 2000 years ago and has undergone many phases of development. Between 1500 AD and 1600 AD, the Venetian technicians diverted the Po river course. With these interventions, the "Renaissance delta" was cut off from the hydraulic network and the "modern delta" began to form. Until the middle of the 20th century, progradation of the delta was noticeable due to the abundant sediment supply. In the following decades coastal erosion occurred, this was caused by the reduction of the solid supply of the Po, due to dam and barrier construction and to river bed excavation. These and other interventions (e.g. reclamation, methane extractions from superficial ground water table) have deeply modified the physical and ecological characteristics of the Po Delta. The morphological characteristics of the Po Delta make the largest Italian wetland particularly unstable and very fragile when subjected to human pressure. Furthermore, the delta evidences multiple threats that will probably be exacerbated in the following decades by the effects of expected climatic changes. Only the application of careful policies concerning coastal defence, flood mitigation, anthropogenic subsidence reduction and salt wedge intrusion control will allow reduction of the present or predicted negative effects. This paper reviews how natural and human factors have controlled the Po Delta through time and discusses management strategies taking into account the importance of the human factor and the potential effects of climatic changes.

  15. Assessing the impacts of human activities and climate variations on grassland productivity by partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHA Zongyao; XIE Yichun; TAN Xicheng; BAI Yongfei; LI Jonathan; LIU Xuefeng

    2017-01-01

    The cause-effect associations between geographical phenomena are an important focus in ecological research.Recent studies in structural equation modeling (SEM) demonstrated the potential for analyzing such associations.We applied the variance-based partial least squares SEM (PLS-SEM) and geographically-weighted regression (GWR) modeling to assess the human-climate impact on grassland productivity represented by above-ground biomass (AGB).The human and climate factors and their interaction were taken to explain the AGB variance by a PLS-SEM developed for the grassland ecosystem in Inner Mongolia,China.Results indicated that 65.5% of the AGB variance could be explained by the human and climate factors and their interaction.The case study showed that the human and climate factors imposed a significant and negative impact on the AGB and that their interaction alleviated to some extent the threat from the intensified human-climate pressure.The alleviation may be attributable to vegetation adaptation to high human-climate stresses,to human adaptation to climate conditions or/and to recent vegetation restoration programs in the highly degraded areas.Furthermore,the AGB response to the human and climate factors modeled by GWR exhibited significant spatial variations.This study demonstrated that the combination of PLS-SEM and GWR model is feasible to investigate the cause-effect relation in socio-ecological systems.

  16. Impacts of aviation fuel sulfur content on climate and human health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Z. Kapadia

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Aviation emissions impact both air quality and climate. Using a coupled tropospheric chemistry-aerosol microphysics model we investigate the effects of varying aviation fuel sulfur content (FSC on premature mortality from long-term exposure to aviation-sourced PM2.5 (particulate matter with a dry diameter of  <  2.5 µm and on the global radiation budget due to changes in aerosol and tropospheric ozone. We estimate that present-day non-CO2 aviation emissions with a typical FSC of 600 ppm result in  ∼  3600 [95 % CI: 1310–5890] annual premature mortalities globally due to increases in cases of cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer, resulting from increased surface PM2.5 concentrations. We quantify the global annual mean combined radiative effect (REcomb of non-CO2 aviation emissions as −13.3 mW m−2; from increases in aerosols (direct radiative effect and cloud albedo effect and tropospheric ozone. Ultra-low sulfur jet fuel (ULSJ; FSC  =  15 ppm has been proposed as an option to reduce the adverse health impacts of aviation-induced PM2.5. We calculate that swapping the global aviation fleet to ULSJ fuel would reduce the global aviation-induced mortality rate by  ∼  620 [95 % CI: 230–1020] mortalities a−1 and increase REcomb by +7.0 mW m−2. We explore the impact of varying aviation FSC between 0 and 6000 ppm. Increasing FSC increases aviation-induced mortality, while enhancing climate cooling through increasing the aerosol cloud albedo effect (CAE. We explore the relationship between the injection altitude of aviation emissions and the resulting climate and air quality impacts. Compared to the standard aviation emissions distribution, releasing aviation emissions at the ground increases global aviation-induced mortality and produces a net warming effect, primarily through a reduced CAE. Aviation emissions injected at the surface are 5 times less effective at forming cloud

  17. CITYZEN climate impact studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schutz, Martin (ed.)

    2011-07-01

    We have estimated the impact of climate change on the chemical composition of the troposphere due to changes in climate from current climate (2000-2010) looking 40 years ahead (2040-2050). The climate projection has been made by the ECHAM5 model and was followed by chemistry-transport modelling using a global model, Oslo CTM2 (Isaksen et al., 2005; Srvde et al., 2008), and a regional model, EMEP. In this report we focus on carbon monoxide (CO) and surface ozone (O3) which are measures of primary and secondary air pollution. In parallel we have estimated the change in the same air pollutants resulting from changes in emissions over the same time period. (orig.)

  18. Climate extremes in urban area and their impact on human health: the summer heat waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldi, Marina

    2014-05-01

    Shanghai, which is particularly prone to heat waves, recorded the hottest summer in over 50 years. During the event, the maximum number of daily deaths was 317, 42% above the non-heat day average, even though an heat warning system in operation. In this study results from the analysis of heat waves events in Italian cities is presented. Indices representative of extremely hot conditions have been taken into account and results of the analysis of indices such as the number of summer days (SU), number of tropical nights (TR), maxima and minima of daily maximum and minimum temperatures (TXx, TXn, TNx, TNn, respectively), exceedances over fixed thresholds is presented. Results show a clear increase in the past decades of the numbers of days affected by heat events. Some considerations are also presented about the impact on human health of the longest events occurred in the Country.

  19. How do climate and human impact affect Sphagnum peatlands under oceanic-continental climatic conditions? 2000 years of fire and hydrological history of a bog in Northern Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcisz, Katarzyna; Tinner, Willy; Colombaroli, Daniele; Kołaczek, Piotr; Słowiński, Michał; Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł, Barbara; Lamentowicz, Mariusz

    2014-05-01

    Climate change affects many natural processes and the same applies to human impact For instance climate change and anthropogenic activities may cause increased fire activity or change peatland dynamics. Currently it is still unknown how Sphagnum peatlands in the oceanic-continental transition zone of Poland may respond to combined effects of heat waves, drought and fire. The aim of the study was to reconstruct the last 2000 years palaeohydrology and fire history at Linje bog in Northern Poland. The main task was to determine the drivers of fire episodes, particularly to identify climatic and anthropogenic forcing. A two-meter peat core was extracted and subsampled with a high resolution. Micro- and macroscopic charcoal analyses were applied to determine past fire activity and the results compared with palaeohydrological reconstructions based on testate amoeba analysis. Palynological human indicators were used to reconstruct human activity. A depth-age model including 20 14C dates was constructed to calculate peat accumulation rates and charcoal influx. We hypothesised that: 1) fire frequency in Northern Poland was determined by climatic conditions (combination of low precipitation and heat waves), as reflected in peatland water table, and that 2) past fire episodes in the last millennium were intensified by human activity. Furthermore climate may have influenced human activity over harvest success and the carrying capacity. Our study shows that fire was important for the studied ecosystem, however, its frequency has increased in the last millennium in concomitance with land use activities. Landscape humanization and vegetation opening were followed by a peatland drying during the Little Ice Age (from ca. AD 1380). Similarly to other palaeoecological studies from Poland, Linje peatland possessed an unstable hydrology during the Little Ice Age. Increased fire episodes appeared shortly before the Little Ice Age and most severe fires were present in the time when

  20. Remotely-Sensed Urban Wet-Landscapes AN Indicator of Coupled Effects of Human Impact and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Wei

    2016-06-01

    This study proposes the concept of urban wet-landscapes (loosely-defined wetlands) as against dry-landscapes (mainly impervious surfaces). The study is to examine whether the dynamics of urban wet-landscapes is a sensitive indicator of the coupled effects of the two major driving forces of urban landscape change - human built-up impact and climate (precipitation) variation. Using a series of satellite images, the study was conducted in the Kansas City metropolitan area of the United States. A rule-based classification algorithm was developed to identify fine-scale, hidden wetlands that could not be appropriately detected based on their spectral differentiability by a traditional image classification. The spatial analyses of wetland changes were implemented at the scales of metropolitan, watershed, and sub-watershed as well as based on the size of surface water bodies in order to reveal urban wetland change trends in relation to the driving forces. The study identified that wet-landscape dynamics varied in trend and magnitude from the metropolitan, watersheds, to sub-watersheds. The study also found that increased precipitation in the region in the past decades swelled larger wetlands in particular while smaller wetlands decreased mainly due to human development activities. These findings suggest that wet-landscapes, as against the dry-landscapes, can be a more effective indicator of the coupled effects of human impact and climate change.

  1. REMOTELY-SENSED URBAN WET-LANDSCAPES: AN INDICATOR OF COUPLED EFFECTS OF HUMAN IMPACT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Ji

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes the concept of urban wet-landscapes (loosely-defined wetlands as against dry-landscapes (mainly impervious surfaces. The study is to examine whether the dynamics of urban wet-landscapes is a sensitive indicator of the coupled effects of the two major driving forces of urban landscape change – human built-up impact and climate (precipitation variation. Using a series of satellite images, the study was conducted in the Kansas City metropolitan area of the United States. A rule-based classification algorithm was developed to identify fine-scale, hidden wetlands that could not be appropriately detected based on their spectral differentiability by a traditional image classification. The spatial analyses of wetland changes were implemented at the scales of metropolitan, watershed, and sub-watershed as well as based on the size of surface water bodies in order to reveal urban wetland change trends in relation to the driving forces. The study identified that wet-landscape dynamics varied in trend and magnitude from the metropolitan, watersheds, to sub-watersheds. The study also found that increased precipitation in the region in the past decades swelled larger wetlands in particular while smaller wetlands decreased mainly due to human development activities. These findings suggest that wet-landscapes, as against the dry-landscapes, can be a more effective indicator of the coupled effects of human impact and climate change.

  2. Mitigating Harmful Cyanobacterial Blooms in a Human- and Climatically-Impacted World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans W. Paerl

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Bloom-forming harmful cyanobacteria (CyanoHABs are harmful from environmental, ecological and human health perspectives by outcompeting beneficial phytoplankton, creating low oxygen conditions (hypoxia, anoxia, and by producing cyanotoxins. Cyanobacterial genera exhibit optimal growth rates and bloom potentials at relatively high water temperatures; hence, global warming plays a key role in their expansion and persistence. CyanoHABs are regulated by synergistic effects of nutrient (nitrogen:N and phosphorus:P supplies, light, temperature, vertical stratification, water residence times, and biotic interactions. In most instances, nutrient control strategies should focus on reducing both N and P inputs. Strategies based on physical, chemical (nutrient and biological manipulations can be effective in reducing CyanoHABs; however, these strategies are largely confined to relatively small systems, and some are prone to ecological and environmental drawbacks, including enhancing release of cyanotoxins, disruption of planktonic and benthic communities and fisheries habitat. All strategies should consider and be adaptive to climatic variability and change in order to be effective for long-term control of CyanoHABs. Rising temperatures and greater hydrologic variability will increase growth rates and alter critical nutrient thresholds for CyanoHAB development; thus, nutrient reductions for bloom control may need to be more aggressively pursued in response to climatic changes globally.

  3. Critical Studies on Integrating Land-Use Induced Effects on Climate Regulation Services into Impact Assessment for Human Well-Being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihui Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available It is commonly acknowledged that land use changes (LUC and climate changes have exerted significant effects on ecosystem services which are essential and vital to human well-being. Among all the services provided by ecosystem, climate regulation services are relatively sensitive to LUC and climate changes. This study aims to comprehensively review studies on the complex effects of LUC and climate changes on climate regulation services and further integrates the effects on climate regulation services into impact assessment for human well-being. In this study, we firstly introduced research efforts in which the drivers of and their corresponding effects on climate regulation services are briefly identified. Then, we explicitly reviewed the researches on the effects of LUC and climate changes on climate regulation services, especially focused on the certain methods and models used to quantify the effects on the major drivers of climate regulation services. After that, the effects of LUC and climate changes on human well-being via climate regulation services were revisited and commented accordingly. Finally, this paper discussed the current research gaps and proposed some research prospects in future studies.

  4. Impact of climate change on human-wildlife conflicts in East Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is a phenomenon that is already happening and in some areas of Africa it is taking place at an alarming rate. Climate change is expected to cause an increase in weather-related disasters and extreme weather events, such as droughts, heat waves, floods, desertification, and vector-borne infestations.

  5. Human Impacts On The Bengal Delta's Response To Rapid Climate And Sea-Level Changes: Who Threatens Whom? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodbred, S. L.

    2009-12-01

    The densely populated country of Bangladesh is often cited as being severely threatened by predicted changes in climate and accelerated sea-level rise. Justification for this grave assessment is founded in part on the low-lying nation's frequent inundation by river floods and storm surges, which affect millions of people annually. Indeed, nearly 50% of the delta system lies natural environment it speaks more to a healthful future than decline. Here I present field-based observations of sediment dispersal in the modern Bengal delta, which demonstrate how the system may remain relatively stable over the next century. However, this potentially acceptable outcome becomes increasingly unlikely if human interferences are considered. For example, short-term strategies to mitigate flooding would likely involve artificial leveeing of the river and the diking of coastal lowlands, both of which would limit sedimentation and diminish relative elevation of the delta surface. Threats upstream of the delta also include river damming to address demands for hydroelectric power and water resources in India, with a resulting decline in sediment discharge to the coast. Ultimately, it may be the impacts of such direct human-modification to the Bengal delta and river systems that outpace - in time and severity - those resulting from climate and sea-level changes alone.

  6. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T

    1998-01-01

    .... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...

  7. Holocene climate aridification trend and human impact interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale climate fluctuations from a new sedimentary record from Padul (Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Román, María J.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Camuera, Jon; García-Alix, Antonio; Anderson, R. Scott; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Carrión, José S.

    2018-01-01

    and minima in solar activity. Time series analysis performed from local (Botryococcus and total organic carbon) and regional (Mediterranean forest) signals helped us determining the relationship between southern Iberian climate evolution, atmospheric and oceanic dynamics, and solar activity. Our multiproxy record shows little evidence of human impact in the area until ˜ 1550 cal yr BP, when evidence of agriculture and livestock grazing occurs. Therefore, climate is the main forcing mechanism controlling environmental change in the area until relatively recently.

  8. Holocene climate aridification trend and human impact interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale climate fluctuations from a new sedimentary record from Padul (Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Ramos-Román

    2018-01-01

    the MCA and the first part of the Little Ice Age, which could be related to a change towards negative NAO conditions and minima in solar activity. Time series analysis performed from local (Botryococcus and total organic carbon and regional (Mediterranean forest signals helped us determining the relationship between southern Iberian climate evolution, atmospheric and oceanic dynamics, and solar activity. Our multiproxy record shows little evidence of human impact in the area until  ∼  1550 cal yr BP, when evidence of agriculture and livestock grazing occurs. Therefore, climate is the main forcing mechanism controlling environmental change in the area until relatively recently.

  9. Effects of amphibian phylogeny, climate and human impact on the occurrence of the amphibian-killing chytrid fungus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacigalupe, Leonardo D; Soto-Azat, Claudio; García-Vera, Cristobal; Barría-Oyarzo, Ismael; Rezende, Enrico L

    2017-09-01

    Chytridiomycosis, due to the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has been associated with the alarming decline and extinction crisis of amphibians worldwide. Because conservation programs are implemented locally, it is essential to understand how the complex interactions among host species, climate and human activities contribute to Bd occurrence at regional scales. Using weighted phylogenetic regressions and model selection, we investigated geographic patterns of Bd occurrence along a latitudinal gradient of 1500 km within a biodiversity hot spot in Chile (1845 individuals sampled from 253 sites and representing 24 species), and its association with climatic, socio-demographic and economic variables. Analyses show that Bd prevalence decreases with latitude although it has increased by almost 10% between 2008 and 2013, possibly reflecting an ongoing spread of Bd following the introduction of Xenopus laevis. Occurrence of Bd was higher in regions with high gross domestic product (particularly near developed centers) and with a high variability in rainfall regimes, whereas models including other bioclimatic or geographic variables, including temperature, exhibited substantially lower fit and virtually no support based on Akaike weights. In addition, Bd prevalence exhibited a strong phylogenetic signal, with five species having high numbers of infected individuals and higher prevalence than the average of 13.3% across all species. Taken together, our results highlight that Bd in Chile might still be spreading south, facilitated by a subset of species that seem to play an important epidemiological role maintaining this pathogen in the communities, in combination with climatic and human factors affecting the availability and quality of amphibian breeding sites. This information may be employed to design conservation strategies and mitigate the impacts of Bd in the biodiversity hot spot of southern Chile, and similar studies may prove useful to disentangle the

  10. Glacier Retreat in the Southern Peruvian Andes: Climate Change, Environmental Impacts, Human Perception and Social Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlove, B.

    2007-12-01

    This paper presents results from recent environmental and anthropological research near glacierized areas in the department of Cusco, Peru, home to the well-known Quelccaya Ice Cap and to the peak of Ausangate (6384 m). Glaciers in the region are in negative mass balance, losing volume and area, with upslope movement of the glacier fronts. Somewhat paradoxically, flows in many streams close to the glaciers are reduced, particularly in the dry season, due to a shift in the seasonal distribution of melting, to increased evaporation and to increased percolation into newly-exposed sands and gravels. Associated with this reduction in flow is a desiccation of some anthropogenic and natural wetlands, reducing the availability of dry season forage to wild (vicuna) and domesticated (alpaca, llama) ruminants. Interviews and ethnographic observations with local populations of Quechua-speaking herders at elevations of 4500-5200 meters provide detailed comments on these changes. They have an extensive vocabulary of terms for glacial features associated with retreat. They link this treat with environmental factors (higher temperatures, greater winds that deposit dust on lower portions of glaciers) and with religious factors (divine punishment for human wrong-doing, failure of humans to respect mountain spirits). They describe a variety of economic and extra-economic impacts of this retreat on different spatial, social and temporal scales. Though they face other issues as well (threats of pollution from new mining projects, inadequacy of government services), glacier retreat is their principal concern. Many herders express extreme distress over this unprecedented threat to their livelihoods and communities, though a few propose responses - out-migration, the formation of an association of neighboring communities, development of irrigation works - that could serve as adaptations.

  11. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantechi, R.; Almeida-Teixeira, M.E.; Maracchi, G.

    1991-01-01

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  12. Trace metals in Antarctica related to climate change and increasing human impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargagli, R

    2000-01-01

    Metals are natural constituents of the abiotic and biotic components of all ecosystems, and under natural conditions they are cycled within and between the geochemical spheres--the atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere--at quite steady fluxes. In the second half of the twentieth century, the huge increase in energy and mineral consumption determined anthropogenic emissions of several metals exceeding those from natural sources, e.g., volcanoes and windborne soil particles. In the Northern Hemisphere, the biogeochemical cycles of Pb, Cd, Zn, Cu, and other metals were significantly altered, even in Arctic regions. On the contrary, available data on trace metal concentrations in abiotic matrices from continental Antarctica, summarized in this review, suggest that the biogeochemical cycle of Pb is probably the only one that has been significantly altered by anthropogenic emissions in Antarctica and elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere, especially in the period 1950-1975. Environmental contamination by other metals from anthropogenic sources in Antarctica itself can generally only be detected in snow samples taken within a range of a few kilometers or several hundred meters from scientific stations. Local metal pollution from human activities in Antarctica may compromise studies aimed at assessing the biogeochemical cycle of trace elements and the effects of global climate change. Thus, this review focuses on concentrations of metals in atmospheric particulate, snow, surface soils, and freshwater from the Antarctic continent and surface sediments and seawater from the Southern Ocean, which can plausibly be regarded as global background values of trace elements. These baselines are also necessary in view of the construction of new stations, the expansion of existing facilities to support research, and the growth of tourism and fisheries. Despite difficulties in making comparisons with data from other remote areas of the world, concentrations of trace metals

  13. Late-Holocene Climate Change and Human Impact; Palaeoecological Evidence From Peat Deposits in Sweden and Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Linden, M.; van Geel, B.

    2006-12-01

    With the aim of investigating the effects of climate change and human impact on vegetation and carbon accumulation, we took peat cores of ca. 1 meter depth from four raised bogs situated on a North-South transect, at intervals of c. 500 km, Umeå in Sweden to Angermünde in northern Germany. A number of analyses were conducted (plant macrofossils, pollen/non-pollen microfossils, colorimetric humification, carbon/nitrogen ratios, bulk densities, loss on ignition), and 14C wiggle-match dating was applied to obtain a fine-resolution chronology. The cores from the northern and southern site encompass ca. 1000 years of vegetation history, showing evidence for the end of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the twentieth century warming. The middle Swedish and German sites are high resolution records of the last 400 years. The end of the MWP and the cooling at the start of the LIA are reflected by a decline in thermophilous tree species. Changes in the macrofossil composition may also represent changes in climate. Shifts in Sphagnum composition, the dominant peat former, reflect changes in precipitation. Evidence for wet conditions and increased carbon accumulation is found during the Little Ice Age. Human activities affected the peat bog and the surrounding vegetation. Sweden suffered many wars during the 16^{th} and 17^{th} century, which caused a decline in population density. Diseases such as the plague and famines caused by crop failures fastened the population decrease. As a consequence, agricultural land was abandoned, resulting in reforestation by Betula. Later, in the modern part of the records, land-use change and planting of trees comprised the major regional vegetation changes. In the southern site, human activities (drainage to facilitate peat cutting) affected the raised bog itself. A part of the peat archive was lost owing to secondary decomposition which resulted in very low carbon accumulation.

  14. Climate Change Impacts on Marine Biodiversity and Habitats in the Baltic Sea - and Possible Human Adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefson, Alf B.; Göke, Cordula; Christensen, Jesper Phillip Aagaard

    Climate change is likely to induce substantial changes in the Baltic Sea, as it is a species-poor ecosystem where virtually all species live close to their environmental tolerance range. The vitality of the fish stocks and viability of fisheries should be supported by consideration of global change...... in the management of environment (protection, sustainable use and restoration) and of fisheries. A shift away from sector-by-sector management towards the integrated management of land, water and living resources may be necessary to sustain the productivity of fish stocks. The climate change and other concomitant...

  15. Quantification of Multiple Climate Change and Human Activity Impact Factors on Flood Regimes in the Pearl River Delta of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihan Tang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Coastal flood regimes have been irreversibly altered by both climate change and human activities. This paper aims to quantify the impacts of multiple factors on delta flood. The Pearl River Delta (PRD, with dense river network and population, is one of the most developed coastal areas in China. The recorded extreme water level (m.s.l. in flood season has been heavily interfered with by varied income flood flow, sea-level rise, and dredged riverbeds. A methodology, composed of a numerical model and the index R, has been developed to quantify the impacts of these driving factors in the the PRD. Results show that the flood level varied 4.29%–53.49% from the change of fluvial discharge, 3.35%–38.73% from riverbed dredging, and 0.12%–16.81% from sea-level rise. The variation of flood flow apparently takes the most effect and sea-level rise the least. In particular, dense river network intensifies the impact of income flood change and sea-level rise. Findings from this study help understand the causes of the the PRD flood regimes and provide theoretical support for flood protection in the delta region.

  16. Sediment dynamics in the Rhine catchment : Quantification of fluvial response to climate change and human impact

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Erkens, G.

    2009-01-01

    Fluvial systems are strongly responsive to changes in climate and land use — but take their time to show it. Accurate prediction of the timing and degree of future fluvial response requires comprehensive understanding of fluvial response in the past. This PhD-thesis studied the response of the river

  17. Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, S.; Raja, I.A.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

  18. The impact of European legislative and technology measures to reduce air pollutants on air quality, human health and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turnock, S T; Butt, E W; Richardson, T B; Mann, G W; Reddington, C L; Forster, P M; Carslaw, K S; Spracklen, D V; Haywood, J; Johnson, C E; Crippa, M; Janssens-Maenhout, G; Bellouin, N

    2016-01-01

    European air quality legislation has reduced emissions of air pollutants across Europe since the 1970s, affecting air quality, human health and regional climate. We used a coupled composition-climate model to simulate the impacts of European air quality legislation and technology measures implemented between 1970 and 2010. We contrast simulations using two emission scenarios; one with actual emissions in 2010 and the other with emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of technological improvements and end-of-pipe treatment measures in the energy, industrial and road transport sectors. European emissions of sulphur dioxide, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon in 2010 are 53%, 59% and 32% lower respectively compared to emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of legislative and technology measures. These emission reductions decreased simulated European annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) by 35%, sulphate by 44%, BC by 56% and particulate organic matter by 23%. The reduction in PM 2.5 concentrations is calculated to have prevented 80 000 (37 000–116 000, at 95% confidence intervals) premature deaths annually across the European Union, resulting in a perceived financial benefit to society of US$232 billion annually (1.4% of 2010 EU GDP). The reduction in aerosol concentrations due to legislative and technology measures caused a positive change in the aerosol radiative effect at the top of atmosphere, reduced atmospheric absorption and also increased the amount of solar radiation incident at the surface over Europe. We used an energy budget approximation to estimate that these changes in the radiative balance have increased European annual mean surface temperatures and precipitation by 0.45 ± 0.11 °C and by 13 ± 0.8 mm yr −1 respectively. Our results show that the implementation of European legislation and technological improvements to reduce the emission of air pollutants has improved air quality

  19. The diatom flora of Lake Kinneret (Israel) - Paleolimnological evidence for Holocene climate change and human impact in the southeastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vossel, Hannah; Reed, Jane M.; Litt, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is a region of highly complex topography and climatic variability, such that our understanding of the past environmental variability is still limited. Diatoms (single-celled siliceous algae, Bacillariophyceae) are abundant, diverse and sensitive to a wide range of environmental parameters. They are often well preserved in lake sediment records, and have well-recognised potential to generate high-quality paleolimnological data. Diatoms remain one of the least-exploited proxies in Mediterranean palaeoclimate research. Here, we present results of diatom analysis of an 18 m sediment core from Lake Kinneret (Israel) as part of a multi-proxy study of Holocene climate change and human impact in the Levant (http://www.sfb806.uni-koeln.de). Results are compared with other proxy data including pollen, and with output data from regional climate modelling, to strengthen interpretation of environmental change in the southeastern Mediterranean. The results show remarkable shifts in the diatom flora over the last ca. 8,000 years. Preliminary investigations show that 98% of the diatom taxa can be classified as oligohalobous-indifferent and as alkaliphilous, as is typical of freshwater, alkaline lakes of open hydrology in limestone, karst-dominated catchments. Changes in the diatom data over time can be interpreted mainly in terms of productivity shifts, with a clear trend from oligotrophic at the base to hypereutrophic in the modern lake. The eutrophication trend accelerates after ca. 3,000 cal. yrs. BP, indicating the influence of increased human activity in the catchment, identified previously by analysis of the vegetational history (Schiebel, 2013). The analysis of the composition of the diatom flora also provides some evidence for lake-level fluctuations, as a proxy for shifts in moisture availability. Low lake-level stands are characterized by low diatom concentration and increased relative abundance of littoral taxa. High lake-level stands are marked

  20. Climate Change in Myanmar: Impacts and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Intelligence Agency CO2 carbon dioxide CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent EIA environmental impact assessment ENSO El Nino southern oscillation EPA...therefore exposed to long-term climatic impacts such 25 Central Intelligence Agency [CIA], “The World...economy as well as result in human suffering through increased rates of malnutrition , health problems, and mortality. The IPCC and the global

  1. Future shifts in African air quality and the resulting impacts on human health and climate: Design of efficient mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, F.; Marais, E. A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Coffey, E.; Pfotenhauer, D.; Henze, D. K.; Evans, M. J.; Hannigan, M.; Morris, E.; Davila, Y.; Mesenbring, E. C.

    2017-12-01

    Population in Africa is currently projected to double by 2050, which will have significant impacts on anthropogenic emissions and in turn the ambient air quality, especially near population centers. Recent research has also shown that the emissions factors used for global inventories are misrepresented when compared to field measurements in Africa, which leads to inaccuracies in the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions throughout the continent. As the population in Africa increases, the combination of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions in many regions will lead to changes in atmospheric pollutant concentrations, including particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone. Combining updated emissions estimates created using measured emissions factors reported from field studies in Africa with the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) improves predictions of the present day ambient air quality; validated based on available observations from field measurements and satellite data. We use these tools to quantify the impacts of anthropogenic emissions on both climate and human health, shown here as estimated premature deaths from chronic exposure to pollutants. Sensitivities derived from model source attribution calculations using the GEOS-Chem adjoint model are then used to examine the impacts of changes in population distribution and shifts in technology moving to the mid-21st century. With these results, we are able to identify efficient mitigation pathways that target specific regions and anthropogenic activities. These targeted control measures include shifts from traditional to modern cooking technologies, as well as other sector-specific interventions that represent feasible adoptions in Africa over the next several decades. This work provides a potential roadmap towards improved air quality to both government and non-governmental organizations as Africa transitions through this period of rapid growth.

  2. Current and future climate- and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; Wilkinson, Paul; Pattenden, Sam; Vieno, Massimo; Armstrong, Ben; Atkinson, Richard; Chalabi, Zaid; Kovats, Sari; Milojevic, Ai; Stevenson, David S

    2009-12-21

    We describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios. Mortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens. During the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 microg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent.Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens.Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality

  3. Human activity and climate variability impacts on sediment discharge and runoff in the Yellow River of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yi; Wang, Fei; Mu, Xingmin; Guo, Lanqin; Gao, Peng; Zhao, Guangju

    2017-07-01

    We analyze the variability of sediment discharge and runoff in the Hekou-Longmen segment in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Our analysis is based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), sediment discharge, runoff, and monthly meteorological data (1961-2010). The climate conditions are controlled via monthly regional average precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) that are calculated with the Penman-Monteith method. Data regarding water and soil conservation infrastructure and their effects were investigated as causal factors of runoff and sediment discharge changes. The results indicated the following conclusions: (1) The sediment concentration, sediment discharge, and annual runoff, varied considerably during the study period and all of these factors exhibited larger coefficients of variation than ET0 and precipitation. (2) Sediment discharge, annual runoff, and sediment concentration significantly declined over the study period in a linear fashion. This was accompanied by an increase in ET0 and decline in precipitation that were not significant. (3) Within paired years with similar precipitation and potential evapotranspiration conditions (SPEC), all pairs showed a decline in runoff, sediment discharge, and sediment concentration. (4) Human impacts in this region were markedly high as indicated by NDVI, and soil and water measurements, and especially the soil and water conservation infrastructure resulting in an approximately 312 Mt year-1 of sediment deposition during 1960-1999.

  4. Social and economic impacts of climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, Tamma A; Hsiang, Solomon M

    2016-09-09

    For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  5. Global impact of a climate treaty if the Human Development Index replaces GDP as a welfare proxy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Bergh, Jeroen; Botzen, W.J.W.

    2018-01-01

    This study explores the implications of shifting the narrative of climate policy evaluation from one of costs/benefits or economic growth to a message of improving social welfare. Focusing on the costs of mitigation and the associated impacts on gross domestic product (GDP) may translate into a

  6. Linking Glaciochemical and Historical Evidence to Study the Impact of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Human Populations in the Last Millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    More, A.; Chaplin, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    A transdisciplinary approach to study the impact of climate change and air pollution has already yielded significant results, where the detail afforded by historical records has linked glaciochemical data with major economic, epidemiological and climatic events (e.g. More et al., Geohealth, 2017). Historical data has allowed for more accurate calibration of ice-core chronologies, reaching sub-annual accuracy. In turn, more precise chronologies and higher resolution glaciochemical data has added a new dimension to our understanding of the environment and human experience in the last millennium of the Common Era. In this paper we propose examples of the benefits of linking highly detailed and large historical datasets with ultra-high-resolution glaciochemical data obtained through laser ablation, inductively coupled mass spectrometry. We will first examine the signature left in the ice-core record by documented, catastrophic epidemiological and economic events. Epidemics reduced population size, thus affecting economic productivity and therefore atmospheric pollution, especially from labor intensive activities such as the mining of metals (copper, iron, silver, lead), or the consumption of firewood. We will then turn our attention to the impact of increased precipitation and severe climate change on human subsistence and stability. We link glaciochemical signals associated with increased precipitation and temperature decreases with multiple, large datasets of historical records of population collapse and increased civil strife in the middle of the Little Ice Age. In particular, we will focus on how in concomitance with severe climate deterioration European countries began prosecuting citizens—by the thousands—for crimes associated with poor harvests. These prosecutions were often the result of an increase in baseless accusations of supernatural influences of thousands of individuals on phenomena such as incessant rain, unseasonal temperature decreases, frosts

  7. Fisheries: climate change impacts and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The report entitled Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation : A Canadian Perspective, presents a summary of research regarding the impacts of climate change on key sectors over the past five years as it relates to Canada. This chapter on fisheries focuses on the impact of climate change on Canada's marine and freshwater fisheries, and the role of adaptation in reducing the vulnerability of the sector. Canadian fisheries encompass the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans as well as freshwater systems. Fish health, productivity and distribution is strongly influenced by climatic factors such as air and water temperature, precipitation and wind. Most fish species have a distinct set of environmental conditions for optimal growth and survival. If the conditions change in response to changing climate, the fish may be affected. Some of the impacts include reduced growth, increased competition, a shift in species distribution, greater susceptibility to disease, and altered ecosystem function. Studies show that in some areas, fisheries may already be experiencing the effect of climate change. Recommendations were suggested on how to deal with the impacts associated with climate change in sensitive environments. It was noted that actions taken in the fisheries sector will have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. 103 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  8. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, G; Stone, D

    2016-01-01

    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts...

  9. Developing a system of multi-evaluation of the impact of global climate change on human health in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granberg, I.; Golitsyn, G.; Istoshin, N.; Efimenko, N.; Alekhin, A.; Rogoza, A.; Povolotskaya, N.; Artamonova, M.; Pogarski, F.

    2009-04-01

    High people sensitivity to weather and space factors, particularly encumbered by various illnesses, was from time immemorial. Now, in terms of global climate change, accompanied by frequent and severe restructuring of atmospheric processes, thermal anomalies, droughts, environmental change through meteorological and heliogeophysical factors affect the human body particularly intense, causing adverse effects to health. There are currently beginning to develop methods for evaluating multifactor of the external environment and prevention of their negative influence on people. For those sensitive to such influences, with adverse weather in response to sudden changes in weather factors pathological of meteopathic reactions may arise. In doing so, even among healthy individuals it is up to 35-45% of meteosensitive. Meteopathic reactions lead to the appearance and progression of pathological disorders, and the associated increase in chronic diseases. In this connection the tasks solution related to assessing the impact of meteorological and climatic variations of different space-time scale on the health of the population of Russia becomes extremely important, especially for the people with cardiovascular disease. This is confirmed by as clinical observations, and the state of vital systems of meteosensitive people. Based on the results of comprehensive research of Pyatigorsk State Research Institute of Curortology (PSRIC), the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP), and Hydrometeocenter of Russia in the region of Caucasian Mineral Waters (CMW) by scientists of IAP and PSRIC there was established a system of Operational Medical Weather Forecast (OMWF), which aims to have possibility on time to host events for the prevention of meteopathic reactions of people with high meteodependence. Also, we have introduced improved definition of Weather Pathogenicity Index (WPI) for medical weather forecast. As a basis of medical weather

  10. Dust, Climate, and Human Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Nancy G.

    2003-01-01

    Air pollution from both natural and anthropogenic causes is considered to be one of the most serious world-wide environment-related health problems, and is expected to become worse with changes in the global climate. Dust storms from the atmospheric transport of desert soil dust that has been lifted and carried by the winds - often over significant distances - have become an increasingly important emerging air quality issue for many populations. Recent studies have shown that the dust storms can cause significant health impacts from the dust itself as well as the accompanying pollutants, pesticides, metals, salt, plant debris, and other inorganic and organic materials, including viable microorganisms (bacteria, viruses and fungi). For example, thousands of tons of Asian desert sediments, some containing pesticides and herbicides from farming regions, are commonly transported into the Arctic during dust storm events. These chemicals have been identified in animal and human tissues among Arctic indigenous populations. Millions of tons of airborne desert dust are being tracked by satellite imagery, which clearly shows the magnitude as well as the temporal and spatial variability of dust storms across the "dust belt" regions of North Africa, the Middle East, and China. This paper summarizes the most recent findings on the effects of airborne desert dust on human health as well as potential climate influences on dust and health.

  11. Climate change: wildfire impact

    OpenAIRE

    Dautbasic, Mirza; Crabtree, J.; Ioras, Florin; Abrudan, Ioan Vasile; Ratnasingam, Jega

    2011-01-01

    Every ecosystem is a complex organization of carefully mixed life forms; a dynamic and particularly sensible system. Consequently, their progressive decline may accelerate climate change and vice versa, influencing flora and fauna composition and distribution, resulting in the loss of biodiversity. Climate changes effects are the principal topics of this volume. Written by internationally renowned contributors, Biodiversity loss in a changing planet offers attractive study cases focused on bi...

  12. Possible Climate Change/Variability and Human Impacts, Vulnerability of African Drought Prone Regions, its Water Resources and Capacity Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, T. Y. Y.; Qin, X.; Ito, M.; Hülsmann, S.; Xixi, L.; Liong, S. Y.; Disse, M.; Koivusalo, H. J.

    2017-12-01

    This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and landuse to drought-prone regions in West, Southern, and Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid-20th century. Based on the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, and that of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st Century and could become more vulnerable to impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase up to 8oC (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and Madden Julian Oscillation which could also affect water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions, are also discussed. Given traditional climate and hydrologic data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill in the data gap for Africa in future.

  13. Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng; Link, Robert; Clarke, Leon; Maciejewski, Ross

    2017-01-01

    Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchical clustering approach.

  14. Impacts of climate change on fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    Evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems is accumulating, but must be evaluated in the context of the "normal" climate cycles and variability which have caused fluctuations in fisheries throughout human history. The impacts on fisheries are due to a variety...... experimentally and in controlled conditions. Indirect effects act via ecosystem processes and changes in the production of food or abundance of competitors, predators and pathogens. Recent studies of the effects of climate on primary production are reviewed and the consequences for fisheries production...... are evaluated through regional examples. Regional examples are also used to show changes in distribution and phenology of plankton and fish, which are attributed to climate. The role of discontinuous and extreme events (regime shifts, exceptional warm periods) is discussed. Changes in fish population processes...

  15. Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: a case study of the Soan River basin, Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahid, Muhammad; Cong, Zhentao; Zhang, Danwu

    2017-09-01

    Climate change and land use change are the two main factors that can alter the catchment hydrological process. The objective of this study is to evaluate the relative contribution of climate change and land use change to runoff change of the Soan River basin. The Mann-Kendal and the Pettit tests are used to find out the trends and change point in hydroclimatic variables during the period 1983-2012. Two different approaches including the abcd hydrological model and the Budyko framework are then used to quantify the impact of climate change and land use change on streamflow. The results from both methods are consistent and show that annual runoff has significantly decreased with a change point around 1997. The decrease in precipitation and increases in potential evapotranspiration contribute 68% of the detected change while the rest of the detected change is due to land use change. The land use change acquired from Landsat shows that during post-change period, the agriculture has increased in the Soan basin, which is in line with the positive contribution of land use change to runoff decrease. This study concludes that aforementioned methods performed well in quantifying the relative contribution of land use change and climate change to runoff change.

  16. Climate change impacts: an Ontario perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortsch, L.

    1995-11-01

    Significant changes in the climate system which are likely to affect biophysical, social and economic systems in various ways, were discussed. Trends in greenhouse gas levels show that during the 20. century, human activity has changed the make-up of the atmosphere and its greenhouse effect properties. A pilot study on the impacts of climate change identified changes in the water regime such as declines in net basin supply, lake levels and outflows, as important concerns. These changes would have impacts on water quality, wetlands, municipal water supply, hydroelectric power generation, commercial shipping, tourism and recreation, and to a lesser extent, on food productions. Climate impact assessments suggest that world conditions will change significantly as a result. Those with less resources are likely to be most affected by climate change, and the impacts on other regions of the world will be more significant to Ontario than the direct impacts on Ontario itself. In an effort to keep pace with global changes, Ontario will have to limit emissions, conduct research in innovative technology and develop greater awareness of the risk of climate change. refs., tabs., figs

  17. Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity and habitats in the Baltic Sea - and possible human adaptations: Baltadapt report 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl, K.; Josefson, A.B.; Goeke, C. [Aarhus Univ.. Dept. of Bioscience, Aarhus (Denmark)] [and others

    2012-12-15

    Climate change is likely to induce substantial changes in the Baltic Sea, as it is a species-poor ecosystem where virtually all species live close to their environmental tolerance range. The vitality of the fish stocks and viability of fisheries should be supported by consideration of global change in the management of environment (protection, sustainable use and restoration) and of fisheries. A shift away from sector-by-sector management towards the integrated management of land, water and living resources may be necessary to sustain the productivity of fish stocks. The climate change and other concomitant human pressures induce substantial uncertainties for the future, especially as responses of marine ecosystems to changes in temperatures and in other forcing factors may not be linear, but abrupt changes may occur, which also need to be considered in exploitation of fish resources. (Author)

  18. Elevational patterns of Polylepis tree height (Rosaceae in the high Andes of Peru: role of human impact and climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael eKessler

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We studied tree height in stands of high-Andean Polylepis forests in two cordilleras near Cuzco (Peru with respect to variations in human impact and climatic conditions, and compared air and soil temperatures between qualitatively defined dry and humid slopes. We studied 46 forest plots of 100 m2 of five Polylepis species at 3560-4680 m. We measured diameter at breast height (dbh and tree height in the stands (1229 trees in total, as well as air and soil temperatures in a subset of plots. The data was analysed combining plots of given species from different sites at the same elevation (±100 m. There was no elevational decrease of mean maximum tree height across the entire data set. On humid slopes, tree height decreased continuously with elevation, whereas on dry slopes it peaked at middle elevations. With mean maximum tree heights of 9 m at 4530 m on the humid slopes and of 13 m at 4650 m on the dry slopes, we here document the tallest high-elevation forests found so far worldwide. These highest stands grow under cold mean growing season air temperatures (3.6 °C and 3.8 °C on humid vs. dry slopes and mean growing season soil temperatures (5.1 °C vs. 4.6 °C. Mean annual air and soil temperature both decreased with elevation. Dry slopes had higher mean and maximum growing season air temperatures than humid slopes. Mean annual soil temperatures did not significantly differ and mean annual air temperatures only slightly differed between slopes. However, maximum air temperatures differed on average by 6.6 K between dry and humid slopes. This suggests that the differences in tree height between the two slopes are most likely due to differences in solar radiation as reflected by maximum air temperatures. Our study furthermore provides evidence that alpine Polylepis treelines grow under lower temperature conditions than global high-elevation treelines on average, suggesting that Polylepis species may have evolved special physiological adaptations

  19. Climatic Change and Human Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, John R.

    1995-01-01

    Traces the history of the Earth over four billion years, and shows how climate has had an important role to play in the evolution of humans. Posits that the world's rapidly growing human population and its increasing use of energy is the cause of present-day changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (Author/JRH)

  20. Impact of climate change and human activity on the eco-environment. An analysis of the Xisha Islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Liqiang

    2015-01-01

    This study describes the fundamentals of assessing the vulnerability of coral islands, as well as environmental management and resource exploitation. Using seabird subfossils, such as bones, guano, eggshells etc., which have been well preserved on the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea, the author identifies the influences of climate change and human activity on seabird populations and diets. Understanding the past is of great importance for predicting the future, and seabird subfossils provide valuable information, which can be used to study changes in seabird ecology, paleoceanography and palaeoclimate. Furthermore, this study proposes examining the biogeochemical cycling of some elements present in the geosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and atmosphere.

  1. Impact of climate change and human activity on the eco-environment. An analysis of the Xisha Islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Liqiang [Heifei Univ. of Technology (China). School of Resources and Environmental Engineering

    2015-06-01

    This study describes the fundamentals of assessing the vulnerability of coral islands, as well as environmental management and resource exploitation. Using seabird subfossils, such as bones, guano, eggshells etc., which have been well preserved on the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea, the author identifies the influences of climate change and human activity on seabird populations and diets. Understanding the past is of great importance for predicting the future, and seabird subfossils provide valuable information, which can be used to study changes in seabird ecology, paleoceanography and palaeoclimate. Furthermore, this study proposes examining the biogeochemical cycling of some elements present in the geosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and atmosphere.

  2. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  3. An Agenda for Climate Impacts Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaye, J. A.

    2009-12-01

    The report Global Change Impacts in the United States released by the US Global Change Research Program in June 2009 identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. In this section of the report, the focus is on those areas of climate science that could contribute most towards advancing our knowledge of climate change impacts and those aspects of climate change responsible for these impacts in order to continue to guide decision making. The Report identifies the six most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. 2. Refine ability to project climate change, including extreme events, at local scales. While climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. This includes advances in modeling capability and observations needed to address local scales and high-impact extreme events. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. Significant potential exists in the US to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society, which requires defining needed information, gathering it, expanding capacity to deliver it, and improving tools by which decision makers use it to best advantage. 4. Improve understanding of thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in climate or ecosystems. Potential areas of research include thresholds that could

  4. Examining uncertainties in the linkage between global climate change and potential human health impacts in the western USA -- Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) as a case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKone, T.E.; Daniels, J.I. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Goldman, M. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    1994-09-30

    Industrial societies have altered the earth`s environment in ways that could have important, long-term ecological, economic, and health implications. In this paper the authors define, characterize, and evaluate parameter and outcome uncertainties using a model that links global climate change with predictions of chemical exposure and human health risk in the western region of the US. They illustrate the impact of uncertainty about global climate change on such potential secondary outcomes using as a case study the public health consequences related to the behavior environmentally of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), an ubiquitous multimedia pollutant. They begin by constructing a matrix that reveals the linkage between global environmental change and potential regional human-health effects that might be induced directly and/or indirectly by HCB released into the air and water. This matrix is useful for translating critical uncertainties into terms that can be understood and used by policy makers to formulate strategies against potential adverse irreversible health and economic consequences. Specifically, the authors employ a combined uncertainty/sensitivity analysis to investigate how the HCB that has been released is affected by increasing atmospheric temperature and the accompanying climate alterations that are anticipated and how such uncertainty propagates to affect the expected magnitude and calculational precision of estimates of associated potential human exposures and health effects.

  5. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Gerrit Hansen

    Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced

  6. Quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in a typical karst watershed, SW China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Luhua; Wang, Shijie; Bai, Xiaoyong; Luo, Weijun; Tian, Yichao; Zeng, Cheng; Luo, Guangjie; He, Shiyan

    2017-12-01

    The Yinjiang River watershed is a typical karst watershed in Southwest China. The present study explored runoff change and its responses to different driving factors in the Yinjiang River watershed over the period of 1984 to 2015. The methods of cumulative anomaly, continuous wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall rank correlation trend test, and Hurst exponent were applied to analyze the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change. The contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change were quantitatively assessed using the comparative method of the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ). The following results were obtained: (1) From 1984 to 2015, runoff and precipitation exhibited no-significant increasing trend, whereas evaporation exhibited significant decreasing trend. (2) In the future, runoff, precipitation, and evaporation will exhibit weak anti-persistent feature with different persistent times. This feature indicated that in their persistent times, runoff and precipitation will continuously decline, whereas evaporation will continuously increase. (3) Runoff and precipitation were well-synchronized with abrupt change features and stage characteristics, and exhibited consistent multi-timescale characteristics that were different from that of evaporation. (4) The contribution of precipitation to runoff change was 50%-60% and was considered high and stable. The contribution of evaporation to runoff change was 10%-90% and was variable with a positive or negative effects. The contribution of human activities to runoff change was 20%-60% and exerted a low positive or negative effect. (5) Climatic factors highly contributed to runoff change. By contrast, the contribution of human activities to runoff change was low. The contribution of climatic factors to runoff change was highly variable because of differences among base periods. In conclusion, this paper provides a basic theoretical understanding of the main factors

  7. Climate Impacts of Cover Crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardozzi, D.; Wieder, W. R.; Bonan, G. B.; Morris, C. K.; Grandy, S.

    2016-12-01

    Cover crops are planted in agricultural rotation with the intention of protecting soil rather than harvest. Cover crops have numerous environmental benefits that include preventing soil erosion, increasing soil fertility, and providing weed and pest control- among others. In addition to localized environmental benefits, cover crops can have important regional or global biogeochemical impacts by increasing soil organic carbon, changing emissions of greenhouse trace gases like nitrous oxide and methane, and reducing hydrologic nitrogen losses. Cover crops may additionally affect climate by changing biogeophysical processes, like albedo and latent heat flux, though these potential changes have not yet been evaluated. Here we use the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) - Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to test how planting cover crops in the United States may change biogeophysical fluxes and climate. We present seasonal changes in albedo, heat fluxes, evaporative partitioning, radiation, and the resulting changes in temperature. Preliminary analyses show that during seasons when cover crops are planted, latent heat flux increases and albedo decreases, changing the evaporative fraction and surface temperatures. Understanding both the biogeophysical changes caused by planting cover crops in this study and the biogeochemical changes found in other studies will give a clearer picture of the overall impacts of cover crops on climate and atmospheric chemistry, informing how this land use strategy will impact climate in the future.

  8. The impact of human activities in africa,the north and south pole regions on global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakar, Babagana

    As a result of the rapid increase in the petroleum exploration, Industrial, deforestation and other human activities going on within or around the Arctic and Antarctica ice caps near or in the temperate region countries like Canada, Greenland, Russia, U.S.A (Alaska), Iceland, Finland, Argentina, Tasmania and New Zealand among many others plus the increase in deforestation activities in Tropical world countries like the Amazon of Brazil, The Tropical Rain forest of Nigeria, Zaire (Democratic Republic of Congo), Cotedvoire, Indonesia etc. in addition to the Sahara and the Kalahari deserts encouragement as a result of human factors plus the uncontrolled disposals of broken Refrigerators, Air conditioners and propellants containing chlorofluorocarbon substances capable of destroying the Ozone layer in African refuse dumps (B.Abubkar,2006) are collectively becoming a threat to the world climate. This explains why the volume of the Ocean keeps on rising, global temperature keeps ascending and the global climate is becoming abnormal since the beginning of the above mentioned activities in the above mentioned locations. It was in view of the above that this research was conducted and came up with the under listed suggestions/recommendations: 1. The temperature region countries like Canada, Russia, U.S.A, Argentina etc. should come up with polices restricting certain industries with the possibilities of causing environmental hazards from operating near the Ice Caps of the Arctic or Antarctica even in areas which the Ice was frozen thousands of years ago as the case with Greenland. 2. The research and exploration activities going on around or on the Arctic and the Antarctica regions should be carried out with utmost care and concern to the global climate. 3. The deforestation activities going on without control in most of the Tropical World Countries should be monitored by the United Nation's Specialized Agencies on forest and other related international organization in such

  9. Design Criteria for Future Fuels and Related Power Systems Addressing the Impacts of Non-CO2 Pollutants on Human Health and Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauer, James Jay

    2015-01-01

    Concerns over the economics, supply chain, and emissions of greenhouse gases associated with the wide use of fossil fuels have led to increasing interest in developing alternative and renewable fuels for stationary power generation and transportation systems. Although there is considerable uncertainty regarding the economic and environmental impacts of alternative and renewable fuels, there is a great need for assessment of potential and emerging fuels to guide research priorities and infrastructure investment. Likewise, there is a great need to identify potential unintended adverse impacts of new fuels and related power systems before they are widely adopted. Historically, the environmental impacts of emerging fuels and power systems have largely focused on carbon dioxide emissions, often called the carbon footprint, which is used to assess impacts on climate change. Such assessments largely ignore the large impacts of emissions of other air pollutants. Given the potential changes in emissions of air pollutants associated with the large-scale use of new and emerging fuels and power systems, there is a great need to better guide efforts to develop new fuels and power systems that can avoid unexpected adverse impacts on the environment and human health. This review covers the nature of emissions, including the key components and impacts from the use of fuels, and the design criteria for future fuels and associated power systems to assure that the non-CO2 adverse impacts of stationary power generation and transportation are minimized.

  10. Climate change and human health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanderson, G.

    1991-01-01

    Changes in the earth's climate, stemming from the greenhouse effect, are highly likely to damage human health. As well as the disruptions to food and fresh water supplies, there is the prospect of major diseases flourishing in warmer conditions, in addition the decrease in the ozone layer is causing an increased incidence of skin cancer

  11. Climate Change, Soils, and Human Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brevik, Eric C.

    2013-04-01

    According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global temperatures are expected to increase 1.1 to 6.4 degrees C during the 21st century and precipitation patterns will be altered by climate change (IPCC, 2007). Soils are intricately linked to the atmospheric/climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Altered climate will, therefore, have an effect on soil processes and properties. Studies into the effects of climate change on soil processes and properties are still incomplete, but have revealed that climate change will impact soil organic matter dynamics including soil organisms and the multiple soil properties that are tied to organic matter, soil water, and soil erosion. The exact direction and magnitude of those impacts will be dependent on the amount of change in atmospheric gases, temperature, and precipitation amounts and patterns. Recent studies give reason to believe at least some soils may become net sources of atmospheric carbon as temperatures rise; this is particularly true of high latitude regions with permanently frozen soils. Soil erosion by both wind and water is also likely to increase. These soil changes will lead to both direct and indirect impacts on human health. Possible indirect impacts include temperature extremes, food safety and air quality issues, increased and/or expanded disease incidences, and occupational health issues. Potential direct impacts include decreased food security and increased atmospheric dust levels. However, there are still many things we need to know more about. How climate change will affect the nitrogen cycle and, in turn, how the nitrogen cycle will affect carbon sequestration in soils is a major research need, as is a better understanding of soil water-CO2 level-temperature relationships. Knowledge of the response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 given limitations in nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus and how that affects soil organic matter dynamics is a critical

  12. Human Behavioral Contributions to Climate Change: Psychological and Contextual Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swim, Janet K.; Clayton, Susan; Howard, George S.

    2011-01-01

    We are facing rapid changes in the global climate, and these changes are attributable to human behavior. Humans produce this global impact through our use of natural resources, multiplied by the vast increase in population seen in the past 50 to 100 years. Our goal in this article is to examine the underlying psychosocial causes of human impact,…

  13. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  14. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

    1995-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  15. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  16. Characterizing the impact of projected changes in climate and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O3) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O3 exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O3 exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O3 exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O3 are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics.

  17. Towards the assessment of climate change and human activities impacts on the water resources of the Ebro catchment (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milano, M.; Ruelland, D.; Dezetter, A.; Ardoin-Bardin, S.; Thivet, G.; Servat, E.

    2012-04-01

    Worldwide studies modelling the hydrological response to global changes have proven the Mediterranean area as one of the most vulnerable region to water crisis. It is characterised by limited and unequally distributed water resources, as well as by important development of its human activities. Since the late 1950s, water demand in the Mediterranean basin has doubled due to a significant expansion of irrigated land and urban areas, and has maintained on a constant upward curve. The Ebro catchment, third largest Mediterranean basin, is very representative of this context. Since the late 1970s, a negative trend in mean rainfall has been observed as well as an increase in mean temperature. Meanwhile, the Ebro River discharge has decreased by about 40%. However, climate alone cannot explain this downward trend. Another factor is the increase in water consumption for agricultural and domestic uses. Indeed, the Ebro catchment is a key element in the Spanish agricultural production with respectively 30% and 60% of the meat and fruit production of the country. Moreover, population has increased by 20% over the catchment since 1970 and the number of inhabitant doubles each summer due to tourism attraction. Finally, more than 250 storage dams have been built over the Ebro River for hydropower production and irrigation water supply purposes, hence regulating river discharge. In order to better understand the respective influence of climatic and anthropogenic pressures on the Ebro hydrological regime, an integrated water resources modelling framework was developed. This model is driven by water supplies, generated by a conceptual rainfall-runoff model and by a storage dam module that accounts for water demands and environmental flow requirements. Water demands were evaluated for the most water-demanding sector, i.e. irrigated agriculture (5 670 Hm3/year), and the domestic sector (252 Hm3/year), often defined as being of prior importance for water supply. A water allocation

  18. The Climate and Human Impacts of Major Explosive Volcanism AD670-730, A Multi-proxy Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, C.; Ludlow, F.

    2013-12-01

    Chronologically secure volcanic events can provide an important tool to improve ice core dating as well as our understanding of volcano-climate responses. However, there is a substantial lack of reference horizons for ice-core dating during the first millennium, excepting the Taupo (New Zealand, AD186×10) and Vesuvius (Italy, AD 79) eruptions. In this exploratory case-study, we use a total of 20 ice core records, 9 from the Arctic and 11 from the Antarctic, together with historical records to examine the occurrence and climatic impact of explosive volcanism, AD 670-730. Sulfate signals comparable in magnitude to the sizeable 1815 Tambora eruption are detected in all of the ice-core time series, with different cores attributing the timing of eruptions to AD 676×2, 688×2, or 700×2, respectively. Historical records of widespread frost damage, anomalously warm winters, drought, famine and mortality from Chinese, European and Middle Eastern chronicles suggest substantial climate and social perturbations during AD 677-685 and AD 699-709. The distinctive double-peak feature seen in the majority of the volcanic signals from both poles at AD 676×2 and AD 688×2 suggests that these signals may belong to the same eruption, with those cores dating the signals to c.AD 676 generally considered to have a more precise chronology. Combining the evidence from natural and historical anthropogenic records and taking into account uncertainties (e.g. resolution, dating accuracy) associated with individual ice cores, we propose that a (most-likely) low-latitude eruption took place around AD676, followed by another possible eruption around AD700, identifiable by the significant acidity in polar ice-caps and historical documents. Unique historical observations of 'blood rain' in Ireland (often associated with Saharan sand deposition, but also plausibly with iron and manganese-rich tephra falls) also suggest a high-latitude eruption (possibly Icelandic) at AD693, corresponding to a

  19. The impact of MIS-3 climate events at the transition from Neanderthals to modern humans in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staubwasser, M.; Dragusin, V.; Assonov, S.; Ersek, V.; Hoffmann, D.; Veres, D.; Onac, B. P.

    2017-12-01

    We report on last glacial stable C and O isotope records from two U-Th dated speleothems from Romania. The southerly record (Ascunsa Cave, South Carpathians) from the Danube region matches the pacing and relative change in amplitude of the Greenland ice temperature record at 30-50 ka BP as well as the abundance of coastal winter sea ice in the Black Sea. The northerly record (Tausoare Cave, East Carpathians) in parts shares the pacing of events with the Greenland or the southern Romanian record, but best matches northern Black Sea summer season temperature change. Heinrich events do not stand out in either record, but the temperature amplitudes of Greenland stadials and Black Sea records are generally reproduced. Based on similarity with the Black Sea we interpret the combined two speleothem records in terms of seasonal temperature change in central Eastern Europe. A climatic influence on the transition from Neanderthals to modern humans has long been suspected. However, the diachronous and spatially complex archaeologic succession across the Middle-Upper Paleolithic (MUPL) in Europe ( 38 - 48 ka) is difficult to reconcile with the millennial-scale pacing of northern hemisphere paleoclimate. Two extreme cold events at 44.0-43.3 recorded and 40.7-39.8 ka in the speleothems bracket the dates of the first known appearance of modern humans - the Aurignacian complex - and the disappearance of Neanderthals from most of Europe. These cold events are coeval with Greenland Stadials GS-12 and GS-10. The speleothem records generally match the paleosol/loess succession from central Europe across the MUPL. The combined record suggests that permafrost advance may have made central Europe uninhabitable at least during winter. The combined paleoclimate and archaeologic records suggest that depopulation-repopulation cycles may have occurred during and after each cold event. Repopulation of central Europe geographically favored the modern human Aurignacians from SE Europe.

  20. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Melanie

    2007-01-01

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  1. Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1993-01-01

    Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  2. Climate geopolitics. Negotiations, strategies, impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gemenne, Francois

    2015-01-01

    As countries are not equal in front of the climate change issue (some contribute more than the others, some will be more heavily impacted, some are more dependent on fossil energies, some could be affected by population movements related to the degradation of their environment), and as countries are to adopt measures for a more sustainable development while facing huge geopolitical challenges which affect international negotiations, this book aims at describing and analysing these issues which illustrate serious imbalances between countries. These issues relate to the development of energy policies, to geographical and demographic constraints. The author describes how the climate has become an international political issue, and a field of complex interactions with international relationships. After having recalled the origins of greenhouse gas emissions and their main expected impacts, he analyses the various responsibilities, describes these different impacts, outlines how global warming is basically unfair: the less responsible countries will be more impacted than the responsible ones. He also discusses mechanisms of international cooperation which have been implemented to address this issue: adaptation and mitigation policies, associated negotiations. He notices that the strongest mitigation efforts are, the least necessary adaptation efforts will be. He discusses the issue of financing and necessary financial and technological transfers to help southern countries in reducing their emissions without compromising their development. He highlights the current status of negotiations, their organisation, the present actors and forces, and their main point of tension

  3. Climate Trends and Impacts in China

    OpenAIRE

    Chris Sall

    2013-01-01

    This discussion paper summarizes observed and projected trends in extreme weather events, present-day climate variability, and future climate change and their impacts on China's different regions. Findings are presented from China's national assessment report on climate change (2007) and second national assessment report on climate change (2011) as well as other studies by Chinese and inte...

  4. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  5. Climate variability and human impact on the environment in South America during the last 2000 years: synthesis and perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flantua, S.G.A.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Vuillle, M.; Behling, H.; Carson, J.F.; Gosling, W.D.; Hoyos, I.; Ledru, M.P.; Montoya, E.; Mayle, F.; Maldonado, A.; Rull, V.; Tonello, M.S.; Whiyney, B.S.; González-Arango, C.

    2015-01-01

    An improved understanding of present-day climate variability and change relies on high-quality data sets from the past two millennia. Global efforts to reconstruct regional climate modes are in the process of validating and integrating paleo-proxies. For South America, however, the full potential of

  6. Climate change and human health: a One Health approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patz, Jonathan A; Hahn, Micah B

    2013-01-01

    Climate change adds complexity and uncertainty to human health issues such as emerging infectious diseases, food security, and national sustainability planning that intensify the importance of interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Collaboration between veterinary, medical, and public health professionals to understand the ecological interactions and reactions to flux in a system can facilitate clearer understanding of climate change impacts on environmental, animal, and human health. Here we present a brief introduction to climate science and projections for the next century and a review of current knowledge on the impacts of climate-driven environmental change on human health. We then turn to the links between ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change and health. The literature on climate impacts on biological systems is rich in both content and historical data, but the connections between these changes and human health is less understood. We discuss five mechanisms by which climate changes impacts on biological systems will be felt by the human population: Modifications in Vector, Reservoir, and Pathogen Lifecycles; Diseases of Domestic and Wild Animals and Plants; Disruption of Synchrony Between Interacting Species; Trophic Cascades; and Alteration or Destruction of Habitat. Each species responds to environmental changes differently, and in order to predict the movement of disease through ecosystems, we have to rely on expertise from the fields of veterinary, medical, and public health, and these health professionals must take into account the dynamic nature of ecosystems in a changing climate.

  7. Climatic impact of volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampino, Michael R.

    1991-01-01

    Studies have attempted to 'isolate' the volcanic signal in noisy temperature data. This assumes that it is possible to isolate a distinct volcanic signal in a record that may have a combination of forcings (ENSO, solar variability, random fluctuations, volcanism) that all interact. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on temperatures in regions where the effects of aerosol clouds may be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns. This is especially true in subpolar and midlatitude areas affected by changes in the position of the polar front. Such climatic perturbation can be detected in proxy evidence such as decrease in tree-ring widths and frost rings, changes in the treeline, weather anomalies, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures. In low latitudes, sudden temperature drops were correlated with the passage overhead of the volcanic dust cloud (Stothers, 1984). For some eruptions, such as Tambora, 1815, these kinds of proxy and anectdotal information were summarized in great detail in a number of papers and books (e.g., Post, 1978; Stothers, 1984; Stommel and Stommel, 1986; C. R. Harrington, in press). These studies lead to the general conclusion that regional effects on climate, sometimes quite severe, may be the major impact of large historical volcanic aerosol clouds.

  8. Learning to adapt: Organisational adaptation to climate change impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berkhout, F.G.H.; Hertin, J.; Gann, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new

  9. Climate change impacts health in Tunisia | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2012-03-26

    Mar 26, 2012 ... Research is showing that climate change is having major impacts on human health. Weather-related disasters are on the rise and water- and vector-borne diseases are spreading. Strategies to adapt to the effects of climate change may also pose unforeseen health risks. Read more about a project in ...

  10. Co-digestion of rice straw and cow dung to supply cooking fuel and fertilizers in rural India: Impact on human health, resource flows and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sfez, Sophie; De Meester, Steven; Dewulf, Jo

    2017-12-31

    Anaerobic digestion of cow dung with new feedstock such as crop residues to increase the biogas potential is an option to help overcoming several issues faced by India. Anaerobic digestion provides biogas that can replace biomass cooking fuels and reduce indoor air pollution. It also provides digestate, a fertilizer that can contribute to compensate nutrient shortage on agricultural land. Moreover, it avoids the burning of rice straw in the fields which contributes to air pollution in India and climate change globally. Not only the technical and economical feasibility but also the environmental sustainability of such systems needs to be assessed. The potential effects of implementing community digesters co-digesting cow dung and rice straw on carbon and nutrients flows, human health, resource efficiency and climate change are analyzed by conducting a Substance Flow Analysis and a Life Cycle Assessment. The implementation of the technology is considered at the level of the state of Chhattisgarh. Implementing this scenario reduces the dependency of the rural community to nitrogen and phosphorus from synthetic fertilizers only by 0.1 and 1.6%, respectively, but the dependency of farmers to potassium from synthetic fertilizers by 31%. The prospective scenario returns more organic carbon to agricultural land and thus has a potential positive effect on soil quality. The implementation of the prospective scenario can reduce the health impact of the local population by 48%, increase the resource efficiency of the system by 60% and lower the impact on climate change by 13%. This study highlights the large potential of anaerobic digestion to overcome the aforementioned issues faced by India. It demonstrates the need to couple local and global assessments and to conduct analyses at the substance level to assess the sustainability of such systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Impacts of Climate Change on Dengue Risk in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Tatiane Menezes; Paula Pereda; Denisard Alves

    2014-01-01

    Climate has relevant impacts on human health. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), climate-sensitive health problems kill millions of people every year and undermine the physical and psychological health of millions (WHO, 2012). In the particular case of vector-borne diseases, climate conditions assure the vectors' survival and reproduction and, consequently, the transmission of the diseases (Kelly-Hope and Thomson, 2008). Increases in heat, precipitation, and humidity can allow ...

  12. Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.; Gerten, Dieter; Caminade, Cyril; Gosling, Simon N.; Hendy, Erica J.; Kassie, Belay T.; Kissling, W. Daniel; Muri, Helene; Oschlies, Andreas; Smith, Steven J.

    2017-01-01

    Despite a growing literature on the climate response to solar geoengineering—proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo—there has been little published on the impacts of solar geoengineering on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. An understanding of the impacts of different scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment will be crucial for informing decisions on whether and how to deploy it. Here we review the current state of knowledge about impacts of a solar-geoengineered climate and identify the major research gaps. We suggest that a thorough assessment of the climate impacts of a range of scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment is needed and can be built upon existing frameworks. However, solar geoengineering poses a novel challenge for climate impacts research as the manner of deployment could be tailored to pursue different objectives making possible a wide range of climate outcomes. We present a number of ideas for approaches to extend the survey of climate impacts beyond standard scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment to address this challenge. Reducing the impacts of climate change is the fundamental motivator for emissions reductions and for considering whether and how to deploy solar geoengineering. This means that the active engagement of the climate impacts research community will be important for improving the overall understanding of the opportunities, challenges, and risks presented by solar geoengineering.

  13. Humanity faced with climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dautray, R.; Lesourne, J.

    2009-01-01

    Humanity is for the first time confronted with a global change phenomenon of the eco-sphere which makes her entering a long transition era with at the same time economical, social and political impacts. Every country and every human activity will be impacted. The resulting problems may be solved by changing our way of life, limiting transports and by the large-scale implementation of existing technologies or technologies under development. The challenge is not to reject technology but to intensify the efforts to develop and adapt it according to the real needs of populations. (J.S.)

  14. Two Extreme Climate Events of the Last 1000 Years Recorded in Himalayan and Andean Ice Cores: Impacts on Humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Davis, M. E.; Kenny, D. V.; Lin, P.

    2013-12-01

    historically in South America, is concomitant with major droughts in India, the collapse of the Yang Dynasty and the Black Death that eliminated roughly one third of the global population. Understanding the characteristics and drivers of these 'natural' events is critical to design adaptive measures for a world with over seven billion people and a climate system now influenced by human activities.

  15. Amazonia: Burning and global climate impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molion, L.C.B.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years, humans have been playing a major role in reducing the natural forest cover in the tropics through different forms of slash and burn. The most serious destruction, it is said, is occurring in the Amazon, which is the largest expanse of tropical forest remaining on the planet. This chapter reviews briefly the causes and the extent of Amazonian deforestation and focuses on its global and local climate impacts. In addition, the effects of loss of diversity and need to preserve Indian cultures and societies are briefly discussed

  16. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  17. Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Karen; Thyrring, Jakob; Borchsenius, Finn

    2017-01-01

    Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution...... models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe...... with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas...

  18. Climate change, human health, and epidemiological transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Bruce; Charles, Joel W; Temte, Jonathan L

    2015-01-01

    The health of populations depends on the availability of clean air, water, food, and sanitation, exposure to pathogens, toxins and environmental hazards, and numerous genetic, behavioral and social factors. For many thousands of years, human life expectancy was low, and population growth was slow. The development of technology-based civilizations facilitated what Abdel Omran called "epidemiological transition," with increasing life expectancy and rapid population growth. To a large extent, the spectacular growth of human populations during the past two centuries was made possible by the energy extracted from fossil fuels. We have now learned, however, that greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion are warming the planet's surface, causing changes in oceanic and atmospheric systems, and disrupting weather and hydrological patterns. Climate change poses unprecedented threats to human health by impacts on food and water security, heat waves and droughts, violent storms, infectious disease, and rising sea levels. Whether or not humanity can reduce greenhouse gas emissions quickly enough to slow climate change to a rate that will allow societies to successfully adapt is not yet known. This essay reviews the current state of relevant knowledge, and points in a few directions that those interested in human health may wish to consider. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ( Theobroma Cacao ) Yields in Meme Division, South West Region of Cameroon. ... Farm selection was based on age, consistency of sizes and management practices in an attempt to keep the factors affecting cocoa yield constant. Data on cocoa yield, flowering, ...

  20. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Enriquez-de-Salamanca, Alvaro; Diaz Sierra, R.; Martin-Aranda, Rosa; Ferreira Dos Santos, M.J.

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship

  1. Climate impact from peat utilisation in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uppenberg, S.; Zetterberg, L.; Aahman, M.

    2001-08-01

    The climate impact from the use of peat for energy production in Sweden has been evaluated in terms of contribution to atmospheric radiative forcing. This was done by attempting to answer the question 'What will be the climate impact if one would use 1 m{sup 2} of mire for peat extraction during 20 years?'. Two different methods of after-treatment were studied: afforestation and restoration of wetland. The climate impact from a peatland - wetland energy scenario and a peatland - forestry energy scenario was compared to the climate impact from coal, natural gas and forest residues. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate which parameters that are important to take into consideration in order to minimize the climate impact from peat utilisation.

  2. Climate impact from peat utilisation in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppenberg, S.; Zetterberg, L.; Aahman, M.

    2001-08-01

    The climate impact from the use of peat for energy production in Sweden has been evaluated in terms of contribution to atmospheric radiative forcing. This was done by attempting to answer the question 'What will be the climate impact if one would use 1 m 2 of mire for peat extraction during 20 years?'. Two different methods of after-treatment were studied: afforestation and restoration of wetland. The climate impact from a peatland - wetland energy scenario and a peatland - forestry energy scenario was compared to the climate impact from coal, natural gas and forest residues. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate which parameters that are important to take into consideration in order to minimize the climate impact from peat utilisation

  3. Natural climate variability inferred from cosmogenic isotopes and other geophysical data and its impact on human activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Creer, K.M.

    2001-01-01

    The way how natural climate changes may have influenced anthropological development is discussed. The main characteristics of solar variability are reviewed: (1) as measured in detail over recent decades by instruments on-board artificial satellites; (2) as recorded in historical documents on the time-scale of centuries; and (3) as inferred on millennial time-scales from archived records of the cosmogenically generated isotopes 14 C and 10 Be. The older, proxy data comprise temperature changes reconstructed from tree ring studies and environmental changes deduced from multi-disciplinary studies of lake sediments. The effects of changes in ocean circulation and the sporadic influence of volcanic activity are also considered briefly. (author)

  4. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogola, J.S.; Abira, M.A.; Awuor, V.O.

    1997-01-01

    According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate change is attributed directly or indirectly to human activities that alter the composition of the global atmosphere. It is a phenomenon that is still inadequately understood by the general public. Planners, policy makers and even within institutions of learning, but one which is bound to affect our environment and development activities. There is therefore need for information dissemination, systematic research, policy formulation, and development of strategies for managing climate change. The book is divided into five parts, Part I presents basic information on climate change; Part II looks at climatic change and natural resources; Part III discusses implications of climate change; Part IV presents ethical issues related to climatic change; and Part V deals with responses to climate change

  5. Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Miguel, E.

    2014-12-01

    A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each one standard deviation (1sd) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2sd to 4sd by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

  6. Impacts, risks, and governance of climate engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Liu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate engineering is a potential alternative method to curb global warming, and this discipline has garnered considerable attention from the international scientific community including the Chinese scientists. This manuscript provides an overview of several aspects of climate engineering, including its definition, its potential impacts and risk, and its governance status. The overall conclusion is that China is not yet ready to implement climate engineering. However, it is important for China to continue conducting research on climate engineering, particularly with respect to its feasible application within China, its potential social, economic, and environmental impacts, and possible international governance structures and governing principles, with regard to both experimentation and implementation.

  7. New directions in climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessment: summary of a workshop

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Subcommittee for a Workshop on New Directions in Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Assessment; National Academies Press (U.S.); National Research Council (U.S.). Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education; National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change; Brewer, Jennifer F

    ...; adaptation is inevitable. The remaining question is to what extent humans will anticipate and reduce undesired consequences of climate change, or postpone response until after climate change impacts have altered ecological...

  8. New data confirm humanly made climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern

    2000-01-01

    The article describes studies of climatic changes during the last millennium. Factors as volcanic eruptions, solar activities, greenhouse gases and human activities are considered. The conclusion is that the global warming in the last 150 years is most certainly, mainly caused by increased greenhouse effect due to humanly produced emissions of climatic gases

  9. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Santos, Maria J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  10. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED)/Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 13, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Santos, Maria J., E-mail: M.J.FerreiraDosSantos@uu.nl [Department of Innovation, Environmental and Energy Sciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3572 TC Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2017-05-15

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  11. Accommodating human values in the climate regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosalind Cook

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The climate regime addresses one of the most important challenges facing humankind today. However, while the environmental and economic sides of the problem are well represented, it lacks the inclusion of social and human aspects. The human rights regime, in contrast, is a regime which has been established precisely to implement human values. This article ex-plains the problems of climate change in terms of human values and argues that some proce-dures from the human rights regime offer possibilities for improvement. It is submitted that through the inclusion of human rights instruments, such as individual communication, pro-gressive realisation and authoritative interpretation, the inclusion of human values into the climate regime will be facilitated. This article presents these instruments and discusses their potential for inclusion in the climate regime.

  12. Learning to Adapt. Organisational Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berkhout, F.; Hertin, J.; Gann, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt 'autonomously', since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour

  13. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  14. Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip; hide

    2009-01-01

    This report critically reviews current knowledge about global distributions and properties of atmospheric aerosols, as they relate to aerosol impacts on climate. It assesses possible next steps aimed at substantially reducing uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates. Current measurement techniques and modeling approaches are summarized, providing context. As a part of the Synthesis and Assessment Product in the Climate Change Science Program, this assessment builds upon recent related assessments, including the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007) and other Climate Change Science Program reports. The objectives of this report are (1) to promote a consensus about the knowledge base for climate change decision support, and (2) to provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the climate-relevant impacts of anthropogenic aerosols for policy makers, policy analysts, and general public, both within and outside the U.S government and worldwide.

  15. Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyring, Veronika; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.; Berntsen, Terje; Collins, William J.; Corbett, James J.; Endresen, Oyvind; Grainger, Roy G.; Moldanova, Jana; Schlager, Hans; Stevenson, David S.

    2010-12-01

    Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO 2) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO 2, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO 2 is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO 2 equivalent emissions using

  16. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EU AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shailesh Shrestha

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The current paper investigates the medium term economic impact of climate changes on the EU agriculture. The yield change data under climate change scenarios are taken from the BIOMA (Biophysical Models Application simulation environment. We employ CAPRI modelling framework to identify the EU aggregate economic effects as well as regional impacts. We take into account supply and market price adjustments of the EU agricultural sector as well as technical adaptation of crops to climate change. Overall results indicate an increase in yields and production level in the EU agricultural sector due to the climate change. In general, there are relatively small effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of land use and welfare change by approximately between -2% and 0.2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with some stronger effects prevailing particularly in the Central and Northern EU and smaller impacts are observed in Southern Europe. Regional impacts of climate change vary by a factor higher up to 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate change in particular with respect to production and income changes. The technical adaption of crops to climate change may result in a change production and land use by a factor between 1.4 and 6 relative to no-adaptation situation.

  17. Methodological principles for the evaluation of impact of the variability and the climatic change in the human health, a statistical focus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz Bulto, Paulo Lazaro; Vladimir Guevara, Antonio; Ulloa, Jacqueline; Aparicio, Marilyn

    2001-01-01

    Signal detection of climate variability or change and the evaluation of its specific effects, requires an understanding of the variations in the observed data, which describe the natural climate variability and change signals. It is also necessary to understand the complex interactions that make up the climate system. In the present work, an unusual methodological approach is taken to evaluate the effects and impacts of climate variability and change on the behaviour of different diseases, on the basis of practical experience of its application in four countries of the Caribbean, Central and South America: Cuba, Panama, Bolivia and Paraguay. For the determination of the climate signal change multivariate analysis techniques (empirical orthogonal functions) were used, combined with robust methods of time series decomposition (decomposition by median). They allowed us to describe the changes observed in the seasonal patterns of climate and epidemiological diseases for the period 1991-1999, with respect to the period 1961-1990. These results were used to build an autoregressive model with non-constant variance, with a climate index based on the signals obtained from the decompositions, which enters the model as an exogenous variable in order to make projections of the diseases

  18. Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, R.S.J. Tol; Kuik, O.J.; Downing, T.; Smith, J.B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

  19. GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL:A COMPREHENSIVE TOOL IN CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There is growing concern, how and to what extent future changes in climate will affect human society and natural environments. Continuous emissions of Green House Gasses (GHGs at or above current rates will cause further warming. This, in turn, may modify global climate system during 21st century that very likely would have larger impacts than those observed during 20th century. At present, Global Climate Models (GCMs are only the most reliable tools available for studying behaviour of the climate system. This paper presents a comprehensive review of GCMs including their development and applications in climate change impacts studies. Following a discussion of the limitations of GCMs at regional and local scales, different approaches of downscaling are discussed in detail.

  20. Quantification of the impacts of climate change and human agricultural activities on oasis water requirements in an arid region: a case study of the Heihe River basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xingran; Shen, Yanjun

    2018-03-01

    Ecological deterioration in arid regions caused by agricultural development has become a global issue. Understanding water requirements of the oasis ecosystems and the influences of human agricultural activities and climate change is important for the sustainable development of oasis ecosystems and water resource management in arid regions. In this study, water requirements of the main oasis in Heihe River basin during 1986-2013 were analyzed and the amount showed a sharp increase from 10.8 × 108 m3 in 1986 to 19.0 × 108 m3 in 2013. Both human agricultural activities and climate change could lead to the increase in water requirement. To quantify the contributions of agricultural activities and climate change to the increase in water requirements, partial derivative and slope method were used. Results showed that climate change and human agricultural activities, such as oasis expansion and changes in land cropping structure, has contributed to the increase in water requirement at rates of 6.9, 58.1, and 25.3 %, respectively. Overall, human agricultural activities were the dominant forces driving the increase in water requirement. In addition, the contribution of oasis expanding to the increased water requirement was significantly greater than that of other concerned variables. This reveals that controlling the oasis scale is extremely important and effective for balancing water for agriculture and ecosystems and to achieving a sustainable oasis development in arid regions.

  1. Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J; Abel, Guy J

    2017-05-01

    The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

  2. Adapting to the impacts of climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    America's Climate Choices: Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change; National Research Council

    2010-01-01

    "Across the United States, impacts of climate change are already evident. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, cold extremes have become less frequent, and patterns of rainfall are likely changing...

  3. Australian climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennessy, K.; Fitzharris, B.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability made the following conclusions about Australia (Hennessy et al., 2007): Regional climate change has occurred. Since 1950, there has been 0.7 0 C warming, with more heat waves, fewer frosts, more rain in north-west Australia, less rain in southern and eastern Australia, an increase in the intensity of Australian droughts and a rise in sea level of about 70 mm. Australia is already experiencing impacts from recent climate change. These are now evident in increasing stresses on water supply and agriculture, changed natural ecosystems, and reduced seasonal snow cover. Some adaptation has already occurred in response to observed climate change. Examples come from sectors such as water, natural ecosystems, agriculture, horticulture and coasts. However, ongoing vulnerability to extreme events is demonstrated by substantial economic losses caused by droughts, floods, fire, tropical cyclones and hail. The climate of the 21st century is virtually certain to be warmer, with changes in extreme events. Heat waves and fires are virtually certain to increase in intensity and frequency. Floods, landslides, droughts and storm surges are very likely to become more frequent and intense, and snow and frost are very likely to become less frequent. Large areas of mainland Australia are likely to have less soil moisture. Potential impacts of climate change are likely to be substantial without further adaptation; As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia; Ongoing coastal development and population growth, in areas such as Cairns and south-east Queensland, are projected to exacerbate risks from sea level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050. Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich

  4. How Did Climate and Humans Respond to Past Volcanic Eruptions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toohey, Matthew; Ludlow, Francis; Legrande, Allegra N.

    2016-01-01

    To predict and prepare for future climate change, scientists are striving to understand how global-scale climatic change manifests itself on regional scales and also how societies adapt or don't to sometimes subtle and complex climatic changes. In this regard, the strongest volcanic eruptions of the past are powerful test cases, showcasing how the broad climate system responds to sudden changes in radiative forcing and how societies have responded to the resulting climatic shocks. These issues were at the heart of the inaugural workshop of the Volcanic Impacts on Climate and Society (VICS) Working Group, convened in June 2016 at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in Palisades, N.Y. The 3-day meeting gathered approximately 50 researchers, who presented work intertwining the history of volcanic eruptions and the physical processes that connect eruptions with human and natural systems on a global scale.

  5. Dangerous Climate Velocities from Geoengineering Termination: Potential Biodiversity Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trisos, C.; Gurevitch, J.; Zambri, B.; Xia, L.; Amatulli, G.; Robock, A.

    2016-12-01

    Geoengineering has been suggested as a potential societal response to the impacts of ongoing global warming. If ongoing mitigation and adaptation measures do not prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change, it is important to study whether solar radiation management would make the world less dangerous. While impacts of albedo modification on temperature, precipitation, and agriculture have been studied before, here for the first time we investigate its potential ecological impacts. We estimate the speeds marine and terrestrial ecosystems will need to move to remain in their current climate conditions (i.e., climate velocities) in response to the implementation and subsequent termination of geoengineering. We take advantage of climate model simulations conducted using the G4 scenario of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which increased radiative forcing from the RCP4.5 scenario is balanced by a stratospheric aerosol cloud produced by an injection of 5 Tg of SO2 per year into the lower stratosphere for 50 years, and then stopped. The termination of geoengineering is projected to produce a very rapid warming of the climate, resulting in climate velocities much faster than those that will be produced from anthropogenic global warming. Should ongoing geoengineering be terminated abruptly due to society losing the means or will to continue, the resulting ecological impacts, as measured by climate velocities, could be severe for many terrestrial and marine biodiversity hotspots. Thus, the implementation of solar geoengineering represents a potential danger not just to humans, but also to biodiversity globally.

  6. Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Iain R; Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B A; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W

    2012-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and

  7. Climate change impacts and adaptation : a Canadian perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemmen, D.S.; Warren, F.J.

    2004-01-01

    This book summarizes the research that has been conducted in Canada over the past five years on the issue of climate change impacts on key sectors such as water resources, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, coastal zones, transportation, and human health and well-being. The book refers to the growing evidence that climate change is occurring. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) believes that these changes have already contributed to increases in annual precipitation, cloud cover and extreme temperatures over the last 50 years. It suggests that it in order to develop an effective strategy for adaptation, it is necessary to understand the vulnerability of each sector to climate change in terms of the nature of climate change, the climatic sensitivity of the region being considered, and the capacity to adapt to the changes. Adaptation will require a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in order to lower the rate of climate change. Problems associated with water resources include water quality issues that relate to water shortages from droughts, or excesses from floods. The impacts of climate change on agriculture will vary depending on precipitation changes, soil conditions, and land use. Some studies have suggested that higher temperatures would benefit the forestry sector by improving the growth rate of trees, but the increase in the frequency and severity of moisture stress and forest disturbances would create other problems. Adaptations in the fisheries sector may have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. The impact of climate change in the coastal zone may include changes in water levels, wave patterns, storm surges, and thickness of seasonal ice cover. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in the transportation sector include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost

  8. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought...... or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  9. Human-mediated drivers of change — impacts on coastal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Human-mediated drivers of change — impacts on coastal ecosystems and marine ... of global change because they are located at the land–ocean interface and ... upwelling regimes are all being affected by human-mediated climate change.

  10. Human behavioral contributions to climate change: psychological and contextual drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swim, Janet K; Clayton, Susan; Howard, George S

    2011-01-01

    We are facing rapid changes in the global climate, and these changes are attributable to human behavior. Humans produce this global impact through our use of natural resources, multiplied by the vast increase in population seen in the past 50 to 100 years. Our goal in this article is to examine the underlying psychosocial causes of human impact, primarily through patterns of reproduction and consumption. We identify and distinguish individual, societal, and behavioral predictors of environmental impact. Relevant research in these areas (as well as areas that would be aided by greater attention by psychologists) are reviewed. We conclude by highlighting ethical issues that emerge when considering how to address human behavioral contributions to climate change.

  11. The human being facing the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bard, E.

    2006-01-01

    This book presents the results of physics, biology, environment and chemistry experts discussions concerning the climatic change. What do we know from the passed climates? Can we forecast those of the next ten years? What is the part of the human activities in this evolution? What can we do and what must we do? (A.L.B.)

  12. Climate Change Impacts on the Mediterranean Coastal Zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brochier, F.; Ramieri, E.

    2001-04-01

    The main objective of this paper is to highlight the potential impacts of changes in climatic conditions and in related variables, which could affect coastal areas, as well as to identify potential response measures which could reduce the vulnerability of coastal systems and enhance their adaptability. Attention will be focused on the Mediterranean basin which is in the climate change context, a zone of great interest and of recent concern at the world scale by some features: strong ocean-atmosphere-land interactions; contrast between the small size of the sea and its significant role in the global climate system; possibility to use it at a scaled down model for the monitoring of environmental and climate evolution; critical environmental conditions of some areas and high human pressure; and strong geographical, socio-economic and climatic contrasts. The first section provides an introduction to the climate change issue, the past trends and the projections of future climate at the global scale. The second section presents the main features of the Mediterranean basin and some relevant regional projections of future climatic variables. The third section focuses on the main likely impacts on the Mediterranean coasts. Different coastal systems - such as islands, deltas, estuaries, coastal wetlands and coastal cities - and different climate change impacts - such as inundation, increased flooding, salinisation, salt water intrusion, desertification, and increased erosion - are addressed in this section. Finally the last section brings some conclusions and identify some strategies of adaptations and directions for future research aimed at improving our ability to predict and assess the local impacts of climate change in the region

  13. Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Changes in seasons and season length are an indicator, as well as an effect, of climate change. Seasonal change profoundly affects the balance of life in ecosystems and impacts essential human activities such as agriculture and irrigation. This study investigates the uncertainty of season length in Karnataka state, India, ...

  14. Human activity and climate variability project: annual report 2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harle, K.J.; Heijnis, H.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Sharmeen, S.; Zahorowski, W.

    2002-01-01

    Knowledge of the state of the Australian environment, including natural climate variability, prior to colonial settlement is vital if we are to define and understand the impact of over two hundred years of post-industrial human activity on our landscape. ANSTO, in conjunction with university partners, is leading a major research effort to provide natural archives of human activity and climate variability over the last 500 years in Australia, utilising a variety of techniques, including lead-210 and radiocarbon dating and analyses of proxy indicators (such as microfossils) as well as direct evidence (such as trace elements) of human activity and climate variability. The other major project objectives were to contribute to the understanding of the impact of human induced and natural aerosols in the East Asian region on climate through analysis and sourcing of fine particles and characterisation of air samples using radon concentrations and to contribute to the improvement of land surface parameterisation schemes and investigate the potential to use stable isotopes to improve global climate models and thus improve our understanding of future climate

  15. Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on the Mangrove ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Already under threat from water pollution, deforestation and overfishing (black conch), ... local authorities and other stakeholders, will document the impact of climate ... Adaptation strategies for two Colombian cities were discussed at ADAPTO's ... International Water Resources Association, in close collaboration with IDRC, ...

  16. Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Abel, Guy J.

    2018-01-01

    The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. PMID:29707262

  17. Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L. in Europe and their potential impact on human health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Rasmussen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp. in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25% of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27–100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

  18. Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Karen; Thyrring, Jakob; Muscarella, Robert; Borchsenius, Finn

    2017-01-01

    Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species ( Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in 'high allergy risk' (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27-100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

  19. Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Len M.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Fulton, David C.; Mendelsohn, Robert; Smith, Jordan W.; Tunney, Tyler D.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.

    2016-01-01

    Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.

  20. Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. PMID:24830452

  1. Climate change impacts in Northern Canada: Assessing our current knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gill, M.J.; Eamer, J. [Environment Canada, Environmental Conservation Branch, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Munier, A.; Ogden, A. [Yukon College, Northern Climate ExChange, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Duerden, F. [Ryerson University, School of Applied Geography, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hik, D. [Alberta Univ., Dept. of Biological Sciences, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Fox, S.; Riedlinger, D.; Thorpe, N. [GeoNorth Limited, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Johnson, I.; Jensen, M. [Legend Seekers Anthropological Research, Whitehorse, YT (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    A research project by the Northern Climate ExChange at Yukon College, undertaken to bring together into one document all relevant information that will help facilitate the identification of priorities for climate change research, monitoring, technological development and policy development in Canada's North, is described. In addition to the report, project deliverables also include a database of climate change information sources and a database of northern climate change contacts. The review includes scientific, local and Traditional Knowledge sources relating to climate change about each of seventeen natural and human systems (e.g. boreal forests, community health, mining, etc.), synthesized into a table for each system, with projected environmental changes crossed in matrix format with system components. Each cross-relationship was given a ranking; supporting information was included, based on the current state of knowledge of that relationship. In general, current information concerning northern systems, predicted climate changes and the impacts of those changes on northern systems is poor. However, much information does exist and the gap analysis revealed a number of general patterns relating to this information. Clearly, more research is required throughout northern Canada, but in particular, in the eastern Arctic, to provide a greater understanding of the implications of climate changes across the North, and to aid in the development of finer-scale, regional circulation models resulting in better predictive capacity of climate change and its impacts on northern areas.

  2. An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henne, Paul; Bigalke, Moritz; Büntgen, Ulf; Colombaroli, Daniele; Conedera, Marco; Feller, Urs; Frank, David; Fuhrer, Jürg; Grosjean, Martin; Heiri, Oliver; Luterbacher, Jürg; Mestrot, Adrien; Rigling, Andreas; Rössler, Ole; Rohr, Christian; Rutishauser, This; Schwikowski, Margit; Stampfli, Andreas; Szidat, Sönke; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Weingartner, Rolf; Wilcke, Wolfgan; Tinner, Willy

    2018-01-01

    Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future projections. A particular focus is given to better understanding thresholds, tipping points and feedbacks that may operate on different time scales. Observational approaches provide the grounding in evidence that is needed to develop local to regional climate adaptation strategies. Our review demonstrates that observational approaches should ideally have a synergistic relationship with modeling in identifying inconsistencies in projections as well as avenues for improvement. They are critical for uncovering unexpected relationships between climate and agricultural, natural, and hydrological systems that will be important to society in the future.

  3. Increasing impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc; Silva, Filipe Batista e.; Marin, Mario; Lavalle, Carlo; Leblois, Antoine

    2016-04-01

    The projected increases in exposure to multiple climate hazards in many regions of Europe, emphasize the relevance of a multi-hazard risk assessment to comprehensively quantify potential impacts of climate change and develop suitable adaptation strategies. In this context, quantifying the future impacts of climatic extremes on critical infrastructures is crucial due to their key role for human wellbeing and their effects on the overall economy. Critical infrastructures describe the existing assets and systems that are essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of people, and the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact as a result of the failure to maintain those functions. We assess the direct damages of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, droughts, wildfires and windstorms to energy, transport, industry and social infrastructures in Europe along the 21st century. The methodology integrates in a coherent framework climate hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. Overall damage is expected to rise up to 38 billion €/yr, ten time-folds the current climate damage, with drastic variations in risk scenarios. Exemplificative are drought and heat-related damages that could represent 70% of the overall climate damage in 2080s versus the current 12%. Many regions, prominently Southern Europe, will likely suffer multiple stresses and systematic infrastructure failures due to climate extremes if no suitable adaptation measures will be taken.

  4. Modelling climate change impacts on mycotoxin contamination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fels, van der Ine; Liu, C.; Battilani, P.

    2016-01-01

    Projected climate change effects will influence primary agricultural systems and thus food security, directly via impacts on yields, and indirectly via impacts on its safety, with mycotoxins considered as crucial hazards. Mycotoxins are produced by a wide variety of fungal species, each having their

  5. Impacts of climate change in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bresser, A.H.M.; Berk, M.M.; Van den Born, G.J.; Van Bree, L.; Van Gaalen, F.W.; Ligtvoet, W.; Van Minnen, J.G.; Witmer, M.C.H.

    2005-10-01

    The main conclusion of the study on the title subject is that the impacts of climatic change in the Netherlands are still limited. However, the impacts will be stronger in the next decades and will be even problematic at the end of this century. In this book an overview is given of probable changes in the climate for the Netherlands, danger for flooding in specific areas of the Netherlands, changes of the nature, impacts for agriculture, tourism and recreation, and industry and businesses, and risks for public health [nl

  6. Climate and human impacts on vegetation changes in central Guizhou, China: Carbon and oxygen isotopic records in a stalagmite from Yelang Cave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, T.; Liu, Z.; Li, H.; Shen, C.

    2009-12-01

    High-resolution δ18O and δ13C records of a 13.5-cm long stalagmite from Yelang Cave, 60 km west of Guiyang in the southwestern China, have been established by 750 measurements. With low U (10~40 ppb) and Th (0.01~0.367 ppb), four ICP-MS 230Th/U dates indicate that the upper 5.5 cm part is younger than 1000 years, with clear calcite deposition. Below 6 cm depth where the age suddenly changed from late Holocene to late Pleistocene, the stalagmite shows the deposition alternating between white-pure calcite layers and dark-dirty carbonate layers. The dating samples below 6 cm depth have low U contents (26~41 ppb) but high Th concentrations (10~22 ppb) showing 230Th/U dates ranging from 11 ka to 25 ka with large uncertainties. Based on current chronologies, the δ18O and δ13C records exhibit different features in the late Holocene and late Pleistocene. During the past 1000 yrs (0~5.5 cm), the δ18O ranges from -12.0‰ to -9.0‰ (PDB), containing many 10-100 yrs variations with Δδ18O >1‰. The δ13C during this period varies between -7.4‰ and -1.9‰, showing no correlation with the δ18O. Prior to 10.7 ka (below 6 cm), the δ18O and δ13C strongly co-varied, indicating climatic control on the surface vegetation with wet climates (lighter δ18O) resulting in better vegetation (lighter δ13C). The δ13C during the past 1000 yrs had three long-term increasing trends and a sharp decreasing trend, reflecting human impacts on the surface vegetation. The δ13C increased from about -6‰ at ca. AD 1370 to -3.2‰ around AD 1580, illustrating the first deforestation caused by human activity due to large immigration in Ming Dynasty to the region. The δ13C fluctuated between -4.5‰ and -3.0‰ from AD 1580 to AD 1740, then increased to -2.0‰ around AD 1770 with an opposite δ18O trend. This second deforestation event might be caused a strong immigration in early Qing Dynasty due to mining demand. Karst desertification occurred in the area reflected by heavy δ13C

  7. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: Computer simulation -climate impact research. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-07-01

    Climate impact assessment is a new field of research which, owing to international and national efforts to understand and cope with the impending global climate changes on a global, regional and local level, has rapidly become a central field of research of the Federal Ministry of Research and Technology. In contrast to other countries, Germany had no research facilities and infrastructure that could be used. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was to provide the infrastructure basis for climate impact research in Germany. The Institute was founded by the BMFT and the Land of Brandenburg. (orig.) [de

  8. The health impacts of climate-related migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwerdtle, Patricia; Bowen, Kathryn; McMichael, Celia

    2017-12-11

    Changes in climate, in conjunction with other drivers of mobility, shape human migration. While there is an increasing focus on the adaptive potential of migration, the health impacts of climate-related migration, including planned relocation and forced displacement, have not been thoroughly examined. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that migration is currently, and will increasingly be, influenced by environmental degradation and climate change, and that it needs to be addressed in a focused and coordinated manner. This paper examines the links between climate change, migration, and health, considering diverse migration responses, including immobility, forced displacement and planned migration, as well as the associated health risks and opportunities in different contexts. Using case studies, the paper illustrates strategies to reduce the health risks associated with climate change-related migration. While there is an increasing body of research examining the climate change-migration nexus, a dual approach is now required. This approach must include debate and further research regarding the health consequences and responses associated with climate migration as well as immediate strengthening of health systems to make them both climate resilient and migrant inclusive.

  9. Climate Change Impacts at Department of Defense

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotamarthi, Rao [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wang, Jiali [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zoebel, Zach [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States); Wuebbles, Don [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States); Hayhoe, Katharine [Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States); Stein, Michael [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States); Changnon, David [Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL (United States)

    2017-06-16

    This project is aimed at providing the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) with a comprehensive analysis of the uncertainty associated with generating climate projections at the regional scale that can be used by stakeholders and decision makers to quantify and plan for the impacts of future climate change at specific locations. The merits and limitations of commonly used downscaling models, ranging from simple to complex, are compared, and their appropriateness for application at installation scales is evaluated. Downscaled climate projections are generated at selected DoD installations using dynamic and statistical methods with an emphasis on generating probability distributions of climate variables and their associated uncertainties. The sites selection and selection of variables and parameters for downscaling was based on a comprehensive understanding of the current and projected roles that weather and climate play in operating, maintaining, and planning DoD facilities and installations.

  10. Regional decadal predictions of coupled climate-human systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curchitser, E. N.; Lawrence, P.; Felder, F.; Large, W.; Bacmeister, J. T.; Andrews, C.; Kopp, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    We present results from a project to develop a framework for investigating the interactions between human activity and the climate system using state-of-the-art multi-scale, climate and economic models. The model is applied to the highly industrialized and urbanized coastal region of the northeast US with an emphasis on New Jersey. The framework is developed around the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). The CESM model capabilities are augmented with enhanced resolution of the atmosphere (25 km), land surface (I km) and ocean models (7 km) in our region of interest. To the climate model, we couple human activity models for the utility sector and a 300-equation econometric model with sectorial details of an input-output model for the New Jersey economy. We will present results to date showing the potential impact of climate change on electricity markets on its consequences on economic activity in the region.

  11. Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

  12. The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaghan, A J; Sampson, K M; Steinhoff, D F; Ernst, K C; Ebi, K L; Jones, B; Hayden, M H

    2018-02-01

    The mosquito Aedes (Ae). aegypti transmits the viruses that cause dengue and chikungunya, two globally-important vector-borne diseases. We investigate how choosing alternate emissions and/or socioeconomic pathways may modulate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti . Occurrence patterns for Ae. aegypti for 2061-2080 are mapped globally using empirically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from the Community Earth System Model, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Population growth is quantified using gridded global population projections consistent with two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. Change scenarios are compared to a 1950-2000 reference period. A global land area of 56.9 M km 2 is climatically suitable for Ae. aegypti during the reference period, and is projected to increase by 8% (RCP4.5) to 13% (RCP8.5) by 2061-2080. The annual average number of people exposed globally to Ae. aegypti for the reference period is 3794 M, a value projected to statistically significantly increase by 298-460 M (8-12%) by 2061-2080 if only climate change is considered, and by 4805-5084 M (127-134%) for SSP3 and 2232-2483 M (59-65%) for SSP5 considering both climate and population change (lower and upper values of each range represent RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively). Thus, taking the lower-emissions RCP4.5 pathway instead of RCP8.5 may mitigate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti globally, but the effect of population growth on exposure will likely be larger. Regionally, Australia, Europe and North America are projected to have the largest percentage increases in human exposure to Ae. aegypti considering only climate change.

  13. Is climate change human induced?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    mountainous regions is disturbing regional eco-balance, but increasing vehicular pollution in climate- sensitive areas seems to have ... snow and ice. There are more than 800 glaciers in the. Ganga basin. The Gangotri is the big one. It used to cover more than 250 square kilometers, but now it's breaking up in many places.

  14. Assessing the impact of aviation on climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Marais

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available We present an assessment of the marginal climate impacts of new aviation activities. We use impulse response functions derived from carbon-cycle and atmospheric models to estimate changes in surface temperature for various aviation impacts (CO2, NOx on methane, NOx on ozone, sulfates, soot, and contrails/induced cirrus. We use different damage functions and discount rates to explore health, welfare and ecological costs for a range of assumptions and scenarios. Since uncertainty is high regarding many aviation effects, we explicitly capture some uncertainty by representing several model parameters as probabilistic distributions. The uncertainties are then propagated using Monte Carlo analysis to derive estimates for the impact of these uncertainties on the marginal future climate impacts. Our goal is to provide a framework that will communicate the potential impacts of aviation on climate change under different scenarios and assumptions, and that will allow decision-makers to compare these potential impacts to other aviation environmental impacts. We present results to describe the influence of parametric uncertainties, scenarios, and assumptions for valuation on the expected marginal future costs of aviation impacts. Estimates of the change in global average surface temperature due to aviation are most sensitive to changes in climate sensitivity, the radiative forcing attributed to short-lived effects (in particular those related to contrails and aviation-induced cirrus, and the choice of emissions scenario. Estimates of marginal future costs of aviation are most sensitive to assumptions regarding the discount rate, followed by assumptions regarding climate sensitivity, and the choice of emissions scenario.

  15. Human Schistosomiasis, And Nigerian Environment And Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Human Schistosomiasis, And Nigerian Environment And Climate Change. ... There are two types of human schistosomiasis in Nigeria: urinary schistosomiasis caused by infection of S. haematobium and intestinal schistosomiasis caused by the infection of S. mansoni. Different species of freshwater snail which breed in ...

  16. The human rights approach to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Kristian Høyer

    2013-01-01

    are instrumentally applied as a solution to what could be called the “justice problem” in climate negotiations. In order to assess the degree to which human rights could be a useful approach to the justice problem with regard to to climate change, four major issues need to be examined. First...... presently and in the future, needs to be elucidated, as well as (b) the human rights principles that are at stake, and (c) the duties and duty holders involved. Third, the human right to emit greenhouse gases needs to be clarified in the context of subsistence rights and equal per capita emission rights...

  17. Impact of Wave Dragon on Wave Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Thomas Lykke; Tedd, James; Kramer, Morten

    This report is an advisory paper for use in determining the wave dragon effects on hydrography, by considering the effect on the wave climate in the region of a wave dragon. This is to be used in the impact assessment for the Wave Dragon pre-commercial demonstrator.......This report is an advisory paper for use in determining the wave dragon effects on hydrography, by considering the effect on the wave climate in the region of a wave dragon. This is to be used in the impact assessment for the Wave Dragon pre-commercial demonstrator....

  18. Environment and Climate of Early Human Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Naomi E.

    2015-05-01

    Evaluating the relationships between climate, the environment, and human traits is a key part of human origins research because changes in Earth's atmosphere, oceans, landscapes, and ecosystems over the past 10 Myr shaped the selection pressures experienced by early humans. In Africa, these relationships have been influenced by a combination of high-latitude ice distributions, sea surface temperatures, and low-latitude orbital forcing that resulted in large oscillations in vegetation and moisture availability that were modulated by local basin dynamics. The importance of both climate and tectonics in shaping African landscapes means that integrated views of the ecological, environmental, and tectonic histories of a region are necessary in order to understand the relationships between climate and human evolution.

  19. Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

    2014-12-01

    Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

  20. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  1. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  2. Estimating Non-Market Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothman, D.S.; Amelung, B.; Polome, P.

    2003-01-01

    A number of studies over the past few decades have attempted to estimate the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. For reasons related to, inter alia, our incomplete understanding of the workings of many natural and social systems, the tremendous spatial and temporal variability in these systems, and the long time frames over which the issue of climate change will play out, there are large degrees of uncertainty in these estimates. Some of the most rancorous debates, however, have focused on those studies that have attempted to place economic values on these impacts. This should not be surprising as the outcomes of these studies have played an important role in the debates over climate policy. Rightly or wrongly, the estimates presented in these studies are often held up against similar estimates of the costs of mitigating against climate change. The process of economic valuation of environmental and social issues is still relatively young, much less its application to the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. Issues such as climate change push existing techniques to their limits, and possibly beyond. Among the topics that have raised the most concern are the choice of the proper baseline against which to make comparisons, the treatment of uncertainty in human and natural systems, incomplete accounting, the actual valuation of specific impacts, and the aggregation of impacts over time and across widely differing societies. Some of the more recent studies have tried to address these issues, albeit not always satisfactorily. One aspect that makes the economic valuation of environmental and social issues difficult is that it requires addressing impacts that are not typically associated with economic markets, so called nonmarket impacts. In addition to not being traded in markets, many of these impacts affect goods and services that have the characteristic of being public goods, i.e. it is not possible to restrict their use to a

  3. Climate Change and Human Health

    OpenAIRE

    Semenza, Jan C.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change science points to an increase in sea surface temperature, increases in the severity of extreme weather events, declining air quality, and destabilizing natural systems due to increases in greenhouse gas emissions. The direct and indirect health results of such a global imbalance include excessive heat-related illnesses, vector- and waterborne diseases, increased exposure to environmental toxins, exacerbation of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases due to declining air qualit...

  4. Climate Impacts of Ice Nucleation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gettelman, Andrew; Liu, Xiaohong; Barahona, Donifan; Lohmann, Ulrike; Chen, Celia

    2012-01-01

    Several different ice nucleation parameterizations in two different General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to understand the effects of ice nucleation on the mean climate state, and the Aerosol Indirect Effects (AIE) of cirrus clouds on climate. Simulations have a range of ice microphysical states that are consistent with the spread of observations, but many simulations have higher present-day ice crystal number concentrations than in-situ observations. These different states result from different parameterizations of ice cloud nucleation processes, and feature different balances of homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. Black carbon aerosols have a small (0.06 Wm(exp-2) and not statistically significant AIE when included as ice nuclei, for nucleation efficiencies within the range of laboratory measurements. Indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds occur as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic sulfur emissions with different mechanisms important in different models. In one model this is due to increases in homogeneous nucleation fraction, and in the other due to increases in heterogeneous nucleation with coated dust. The magnitude of the effect is the same however. The resulting ice AIE does not seem strongly dependent on the balance between homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation. Regional effects can reach several Wm2. Indirect effects are slightly larger for those states with less homogeneous nucleation and lower ice number concentration in the base state. The total ice AIE is estimated at 0.27 +/- 0.10 Wm(exp-2) (1 sigma uncertainty). This represents a 20% offset of the simulated total shortwave AIE for ice and liquid clouds of 1.6 Wm(sup-2).

  5. Derivatives Trading, Climate Science and Human Rights

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haigh, Matthew

    for capital flows associated with climate management. Media communications and decision making theories are used to interpret data drawn from participant observation and interviews with climate scientists, policy makers and institutional investors. Findings - The framework suggests a digital divide between...... the heaviest polluters as contributing to carbon-minimised investment portfolios. Assets owned by privately managed pension funds have remained materially exposed to risks posed by climate change. In public finance, a narrow range of financial instruments centred on derivatives trading has entrenched global...... between human rights, climate change, and the stability of private pensions provision. Originality/value - Provides policy sciences useful assessments of communication media and financial instruments used in climate management. Establishes bases for theoretical and applied communications research...

  6. IMPACT, VULNERABILITY AND INURING TO THE CLIMATE CHANGES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazilu Mirela; Buce Gabriela; Ciobanu Mariana [University of Craiova, University Centre of Drobeta Turnu Severin, Mehedinti (Romania)

    2008-09-30

    The adverse effects of the climate changes caused or not by the human being are on the international politic agenda for more than a decade. All over the world the discussions on the climate changes are intensifying and heading new directions, with a larger opening. The climate changes were subject of the agenda of the most important regional and international meetings this year, many of these asking the ending with positive results of the U.N.O. Conference on Climate Changes that is taking place these days in Bali, between the 3rd and 14th of December 2007. The Bali Conference will give the possibility of getting involved in the future into the multilateral processes of climate change under the auspices of the United Nations and into the process of shaping a global approaching plan of the climate changes. The climate changes represent one of the major challenges in our century--a complex field about what we have to improve our knowledge and understanding in order to take immediate and correct actions for a lasting and efficient approach from the point of view of the costs and challenges in the climate changes field respecting the precaution and climate changes inuring principle. The inuring is a process which allows societies to learn to react to the risks associated to the climate changes. These risks are real and already present in many systems and essential sectors of the human existence--the hydrological resources, alimentary security and health. The inuring options are multiple and vary from the technical ones--protection against the water gown level or dwellings protected against the floods by being hanged up on pontoons--to the change of the behavior of the individuals, such as the reduce of the water or energy consumption and/or a more efficient consumption. Other strategies suppose: signaling systems of the meteorological phenomenon, improvements of the risk management, ways to assure and preserve the biodiversity in order to reduce the impact of the

  7. Climate Change Impacts on Central China and Adaptation Measures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Yong-Jian; CUI Jiang-Xue; WAN Su-Qin; LIU Min; CHEN Zheng-Hong; LIAO Yu-Fang; WANG Ji-Jun

    2013-01-01

    In Central China, the obvious climate change has happened along with global warming. Based on the observational analysis, the climate change has significant effects, both positive and negative, in every field within the study area, and with the harmful effects far more prevalent. Under the scenario A1B, it is reported that temperature, precipitation, days of heat waves and extreme precipitation intensity will increase at respective rates of 0.38◦C per decade, 12.6 mm per decade, 6.4 d and 47 mm per decade in the 21st century. It is widely believed that these climate changes in the future will result in some apparent impacts on agro-ecosystems, water resources, wetland ecosystem, forest ecosystem, human health, energy sectors and other sensitive fields in Central China. Due to the limited scientific knowledge and researches, there are still some shortages in the climate change assessment methodologies and many uncertainties in the climate prediction results. Therefore, it is urgent and essential to increase the studies of the regional climate change adaptation, extend the research fields, and enhance the studies in the extreme weather and climate events to reduce the uncertainties of the climate change assessments.

  8. Climate impact on BC Hydro's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.; Rodenhuis, D.

    2008-01-01

    BC Hydro like many other hydro utilities has used the historical record of weather and runoff as the standard description the variability and uncertainty of the key weather drivers for its operation and planning studies. It has been conveniently assumed that this historical record is or has been statistically stationary and therefore is assumed to represent the future characteristics of climatic drivers on our system. This assumption is obviously no longer justifiable. To address the characterisation of future weather, BC Hydro has a multi-year a directed research program with the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources that BC Hydro manages for hydropower generation and other uses. The objective of this program is to derive climate change adjusted meteorologic and hydrologic sequences suitable for use in system operations and planning studies. These climate-adjusted sequences then can be used to test system sensitivity to climate change scenarios relative to the baseline of the historical record. This paper describes BC Hydro's research program and the results achieved so far. (author)

  9. The Health Impacts of Climate Change: Getting Started on a New Theme

    OpenAIRE

    Ebi, Kristie L.; Helmer, Madeleen; Vainio, Jari

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is widely acknowledged as a key global challenge for the 21st century, and is projected to significantly affect population health and human well-being. All of the climate change-related changes in weather patterns will affect human health, from boosting mental well-being to mortality from largescale disasters. Human health can be affected both directly and indirectly. For various reasons, the health sector has been slow in responding to the projected health impacts of climate c...

  10. The climate change convention and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowbotham, E J

    1995-01-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed at Rio in June 1992, is intended to minimize climate change and its impact. Much of its text is ambiguous and it is not specifically directed to health considerations. It is, however, recognized that adverse effects of climate change on health are a concern of humankind, and health is an integral part of the Convention. The Convention includes commitments by the developed countries to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and to increase public awareness of these commitments. The significance of the Convention in these respects is discussed critically and future developments considered.

  11. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

  12. Impact of climate trends on tick-borne pathogen transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustin eEstrada-Pena

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent advances in climate research together with a better understanding of tick-pathogen interactions, the distribution of ticks and the diagnosis of tick-borne pathogens raise questions about the impact of environmental factors on tick abundance and spread and the prevalence and transmission of tick-borne pathogens. While undoubtedly climate plays a role in the changes in distribution and seasonal abundance of ticks, it is always difficult to disentangle factors impacting on the abundance of tick hosts from those exerted by human habits. All together, climate, host abundance and social factors may explain the upsurge of epidemics transmitted by ticks to humans. Herein we focused on tick-borne pathogens that affect humans with pandemic potential. Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. (Lyme disease, Anaplasma phagocytophilum (human granulocytic anaplasmosis and tick-borne encephalitis virus (tick-borne encephalitis are transmitted by Ixodes spp. Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever is transmitted by Hyalomma spp. In this review, we discussed how vector tick species occupy the habitat as a function of different climatic factors, and how these factors impact on tick survival and seasonality. How molecular events at the tick-pathogen interface impact on pathogen transmission is also discussed. Results from statistically and biologically derived models are compared to show that while statistical models are able to outline basic information about tick distributions, biologically derived models are necessary to evaluate pathogen transmission rates and understand the effect of climatic variables and host abundance patterns on pathogen transmission. The results of these studies could be used to build early alert systems able to identify the main factors driving the subtle changes in tick distribution and seasonality and the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens.

  13. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

    2008-01-01

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  14. Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parey, Sylvie; Bernardara, Pietro; Donat, Markus G.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change is underway and even if mitigation measures are successfully implemented, societies will have to adapt to new climatic conditions in the near future and further. This session had been proposed to gather different studies dedicated to the climate change impact on some human activities, and discuss the possible ways of adaptation. Climate change is often presented in terms of global mean temperature evolutions, but what is important for adaptation concerns the local evolutions, and rather of the variability and extremes than of the mean of the involved meteorological parameters. In the session, studies and applications will be presented, covering different economical and industrial activities, such as energy production, (re-) insurance and risk assessment, water management or tourism.

  15. Online Impact Prioritization of Essential Climate Variables on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Barkstrom, B. B.; Roberts, K. P.

    2007-12-01

    The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s NCDC Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Team has developed an online prototype that is capable of displaying the "big picture" perspective of all Essential Climate Variable (ECV) impacts on society and value to the IPCC. This prototype ECV-Model provides the ability to visualize global ECV information with options to drill down in great detail. It offers a quantifiable prioritization of ECV impacts that potentially may significantly enhance collaboration with respect to dealing effectively with climate change. The ECV-Model prototype assures anonymity and provides an online input mechanism for subject matter experts and decision makers to access, review and submit: (1) ranking of ECV"s, (2) new ECV's and associated impact categories and (3) feedback about ECV"s, satellites, etc. Input and feedback are vetted by experts before changes or additions are implemented online. The SDS prototype also provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of satellites; and general as well as detailed information in conjunction with imagery. NCDC's version 1.0 release will be available to the public and provide an easy "at-a-glance" interface to rapidly identify gaps and overlaps of satellites and associated instruments monitoring climate change ECV's. The SDS version 1.1 will enhance depiction of gaps and overlaps with instruments associated with In-Situ and Satellites related to ECVs. NOAA's SDS model empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in monitoring climate change ECV's and potentially significantly enhance collaboration.

  16. Assessing climate change impacts on wheat production (a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Valizadeh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the major challenges facing humanity in the future and effect of climate change has been detrimental to agricultural industry. The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of climate change on the maturity period, leaf area index (LAI, biomass and grain yield of wheat under future climate change for the Sistan and Baluchestan region in Iran. For this purpose, two general circulation models HadCM3 and IPCM4 under three scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 in three time periods 2020, 2050 and 2080 were used. LARS-WG model was used for simulating climatic parameters for each period and CERES-Wheat model was used to simulate wheat growth. The results of model evaluation showed that LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters and simulation of stochastic growing season in future climate change conditions for the studied region. Wheat growing season period in all scenarios of climate change was reduced compared to the current situation. Possible reasons were the increase in temperature rate and the accelerated growth stages of wheat. This reduction in B1 scenario was less than A1B and A2 scenarios. Maximum wheat LAI in all scenarios, except scenario A1B in 2050, is decreased compared to the current situation. Yield and biological yield of wheat in both general circulation models under all scenarios and all times were reduced in comparison with current conditions and the lowest reduction was related to B1 scenario. In general, the results showed that wheat production in the future will be affected by climate change and will decrease in the studied region. To reduce these risks, the impact of climate change mitigation strategies and management systems for crop adaptation to climate change conditions should be considered.

  17. Climatic impacts of anthropogenic aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iversen, T. [Oslo Univ. (Norway)

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. Anthropogenic production of aerosols is mainly connected with combustion of fossil fuel. Measured by particulate mass, the anthropogenic sulphate production is the dominating source of aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere. Particles emitted in mechanical processes, fly ash etc. are less important because of their shorter atmospheric residence time. Possible climatological effects of anthropogenic aerosols are usually classified in two groups: direct and indirect. Direct effects are alterations of the radiative heating budget due to the aerosol particles in clear air. Indirect effects involve the interaction between particles and cloud processes. A simplified one-layer radiation model gave cooling in the most polluted mid-latitude areas and heating due to soot absorption in the Arctic. This differential trend in heating rates may have significant effects on atmospheric meridional circulations, which is important for the atmosphere as a thermodynamic system. Recently the description of sulphur chemistry in the hemispheric scale dispersion model has been improved and will be used in a model for Mie scattering and absorption

  18. Climate change impacts on food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  19. Potential human impacts of overlapping land-use and climate in a sensitive dryland: a case study of the Colorado Plateau, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, Stella; Bradford, John B.; Duniway, Michael C.; Schuster, Rudy

    2017-01-01

    Climate and land-use interactions are likely to affect future environmental and socioeconomic conditions in drylands, which tend to be limited by water resources and prone to land degradation. We characterized the potential for interactions between land-use types and land-use and climate change in a model dryland system, the Colorado Plateau, a region with a history of climatic variability and land-use change. We analyzed the spatial and temporal trends in aridification, land-use, and recreation at the county and 10 km2 grid scales. Our results show that oil and gas development and recreation may interact due to increasing trends and overlapping areas of high intensity. Projections suggest that aridification will impact all vegetation classes, with some of the highest proportional change in the south-east. The results suggest that the rate of change and spatial pattern of land-use in the future may differ from past patterns in land-use scale and intensity.

  20. Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the Maasai of ... and vulnerability to climate variability and climate change is assessed, using data ... Model results suggest that the ecosystem is quite resilient and suggests that ...

  1. Future directions in climate modeling: A climate impacts perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mearns, L.O.

    1990-01-01

    One of the most serious impediments to further progress on the determination of specific impacts of climate change on relevant earth systems is the lack of precise and accurate scenarios of regional change. Spatial resolution of models is generally coarse (5-10 degree, corresponding to 550-1,100 km), and the modeling of physical processes is quite crude. Three main areas in which improvements in the modeling of physical processes are being made are modeling of surface processes, modeling of oceans and coupling of oceans and atmospheric models, and modeling of clouds. Improvements are required in the modeling of surface hydrology and vegetative effects, which have significant impact on the albedo scheme used. Oceans are important in climate modeling for the following reasons: delay of warming due to oceanic heat absorption; effect of mean meridional circulation; control of regional patterns of sea surface temperatures and sea ice by wind driven currents; absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the oceans; and determination of interannual climatic variability via variability in sea surface temperature. The effects of clouds on radiation balance is highly significant. Clouds both reflect shortwave radiation and trap longwave radiation. Most cloud properties are sub-grid scale and thus difficult to include explicitly in models. 25 refs., 1 tab

  2. Adapting to the impacts of climate change and variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortsch, L.; Koshida, G.; Tavares, D.

    1993-05-01

    A workshop was held to encourage awareness of the climate change impact issues and build collaboration among the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence basin (GLSLB) research, resource management, and policy-making community; to identify research opportunities to address the issues of water management, ecosystem health, human health, and land use and management; and to recommend directions and priority areas for future studies to develop an integrated climate impact assessment for the GLSLB. Presentations at the workshop were on topics including an overview of the GLSLB Project, the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand, and impacts on water quality, fisheries, wetlands, agriculture, shoreline management, and human health. Panel sessions were also convened to discuss information requirements that would assist in decision- and policy-making and to address the concept of integration. Working groups on water management, ecosystem health, land use and management, and human health were formed and made recommendations. A synthesis is presented of the reports from and recommendations of the four working groups as well as extended abstracts of the plenary presentations. A separate abstract has been prepared for one of the presentations from this workshop

  3. Climate change, humans, and the extinction of the woolly mammoth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Nogués-Bravo

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Woolly mammoths inhabited Eurasia and North America from late Middle Pleistocene (300 ky BP [300,000 years before present], surviving through different climatic cycles until they vanished in the Holocene (3.6 ky BP. The debate about why the Late Quaternary extinctions occurred has centred upon environmental and human-induced effects, or a combination of both. However, testing these two hypotheses-climatic and anthropogenic-has been hampered by the difficulty of generating quantitative estimates of the relationship between the contraction of the mammoth's geographical range and each of the two hypotheses. We combined climate envelope models and a population model with explicit treatment of woolly mammoth-human interactions to measure the extent to which a combination of climate changes and increased human pressures might have led to the extinction of the species in Eurasia. Climate conditions for woolly mammoths were measured across different time periods: 126 ky BP, 42 ky BP, 30 ky BP, 21 ky BP, and 6 ky BP. We show that suitable climate conditions for the mammoth reduced drastically between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, and 90% of its geographical range disappeared between 42 ky BP and 6 ky BP, with the remaining suitable areas in the mid-Holocene being mainly restricted to Arctic Siberia, which is where the latest records of woolly mammoths in continental Asia have been found. Results of the population models also show that the collapse of the climatic niche of the mammoth caused a significant drop in their population size, making woolly mammoths more vulnerable to the increasing hunting pressure from human populations. The coincidence of the disappearance of climatically suitable areas for woolly mammoths and the increase in anthropogenic impacts in the Holocene, the coup de grâce, likely set the place and time for the extinction of the woolly mammoth.

  4. Fire, Climate, and Human Activity: A Combustive Combination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kehrwald, N. M.; Battistel, D.; Argiriadis, E.; Barbante, C.; Barber, L. B.; Fortner, S. K.; Jasmann, J.; Kirchgeorg, T.; Zennaro, P.

    2017-12-01

    Ice and lake core records demonstrate that fires caused by human activity can dominate regional biomass burning records in the Common Era. These major increases in fires are often associated with extensive land use change such as an expansion in agriculture. Regions with few humans, relatively stable human populations and/or unvarying land use often have fire histories that are dominated by climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation. Here, we examine biomass burning recorded in ice cores from northern Greenland (NEEM, (77°27'N; 51°3.6'W), Alaska (Juneau Icefield, 58° 35' N; 134° 29'W) and East Antarctica (EPICA DOME C; 75°06'S; 123°21'E), along with New Zealand lake cores to investigate interactions between climate, fire and human activity. Biomarkers such as levoglucosan, and its isomers mannosan and galactosan, can only be produced by cellulose combustion and therefore are specific indicators of past fire activity archived in ice and lake cores. These fire histories add another factor to climate proxies from the same core, and provide a comparison to regional fire syntheses from charcoal records and climate models. For example, fire data from the JSBACH-Spitfire model for the past 2000 years demonstrates that a climate-only scenario would not increase biomass burning in high northern latitudes for the past 2000 years, while NEEM ice core and regional pollen records demonstrate both increased fire activity and land use change that may be ascribed to human activity. Additional biomarkers such as fecal sterols in lake sediments can determine when people were in an area, and can help establish if an increased human presence in an area corresponds with intensified fire activity. This combination of specific biomarkers, other proxy data, and model output can help determine the relative impact of humans versus climate factors on regional fire activity.

  5. Human-environment interaction during the Mesolithic- Neolithic transition in the NE Iberian Peninsula. Vegetation history, climate change and human impact during the Early-Middle Holocene in the Eastern Pre-Pyrenees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revelles, J.; Burjachs, F.; Palomo, A.; Piqué, R.; Iriarte, E.; Pérez-Obiol, R.; Terradas, X.

    2018-03-01

    The synthetic analysis of several pollen records from sub-Mediterranean lowland Pre-Pyrenean regions evidences expansion of forests during the Early Holocene in Northeastern Iberia and the establishment of dense deciduous broadleaf forests during the Holocene Climate Optimum. Pollen records show the broadleaf deciduous forests resilience against cooling phases during the Mid-Holocene period, with slight regressions of oak woodlands and expansion of conifers or xerophytic taxa contemporary to some cooling episodes (i.e. 8.2 and 7.2 kyr cal. BP). Major vegetation changes influenced by climate change occurred in the transition to the Late Holocene, in terms of the start of a succession from broadleaf deciduous forests to evergreen sclerophyllous woodlands. The lack of evidence of previous occupation seems to support the Neolithisation of the NE Iberian Peninsula as a result of a process of migration of farming populations to uninhabited or sparsely inhabited territories. In that context, remarkable changes in vegetation were recorded from 7.3 kyr cal. BP onwards in the Lake Banyoles area, where the establishment of permanent farming settlements caused the deforestation of oak woodlands. In La Garrotxa region, short deforestation episodes affecting broadleaf deciduous forests, together with expansion of grasslands and presence of Cerealia-t were documented in the period 7.4-6.0 kyr cal. BP. Finally, in the coastal area, where less evidence of Early Neolithic occupations is recorded, evidence of Neolithic impact is reflected in the presence of Cerealia-t in 6.5-6.2 kyr cal. BP, but no strong human transformation of landscape was carried out until more recent chronologies.

  6. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, T. R.

    2009-12-01

    This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

  7. Climatic impact of aircraft induced ozone changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sausen, R; Feneberg, B; Ponater, M [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1998-12-31

    The effect of aircraft induced ozone changes on the global climate is studied by means of the general circulation model ECHAM4. The zonal mean temperature signal is considered. In order to estimate the statistical significance of the climatic impact a multivariate statistical test hierarchy combined with the fingerprint method has been applied. Sensitivity experiments show a significant coherent temperature response pattern in the northern extra-tropics for mid-latitude summer conditions. It consists of a tropospheric warming of about 0.2 K with a corresponding stratospheric cooling of the same magnitude. (author) 16 refs.

  8. Climatic impact of aircraft induced ozone changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sausen, R.; Feneberg, B.; Ponater, M. [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-31

    The effect of aircraft induced ozone changes on the global climate is studied by means of the general circulation model ECHAM4. The zonal mean temperature signal is considered. In order to estimate the statistical significance of the climatic impact a multivariate statistical test hierarchy combined with the fingerprint method has been applied. Sensitivity experiments show a significant coherent temperature response pattern in the northern extra-tropics for mid-latitude summer conditions. It consists of a tropospheric warming of about 0.2 K with a corresponding stratospheric cooling of the same magnitude. (author) 16 refs.

  9. The impacts of climate change in Aquitaine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Treut, Herve; Baldi, Isabelle; Bonneton, Philippe; Budzinski, Helene; Caill-Milly, Nathalie; D'Amico, Frank; Dupuy, Alain; Etcheber, Henri; Grousset, Francis; Kremer, Antoine; Ollat, Nathalie; Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Prouzet, Patrick; Salles, Denis; Sautour, Benoit; Villenave, Eric

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a book which addresses the impacts of climate change in the Aquitaine region by 2030-2050 in order to prepare the adaptation of the main economic sectors. Several fields are addressed: agriculture and wine-growing, forestry, estuaries, coasts and sea resources. The book examines two aspects of climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions: mitigation and adaptation. Two scenarios are studied: a global temperature increase of 2 degrees, and a global temperature increase between 4 and 5 degrees. As examples of this study, this article gives an overview of these issues of mitigation and adaptation in four domains: forests, wine-growing, air quality, and health

  10. Climate change. Socio-economic impacts and violent conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ierland, E.C.; Klaassen, M.G.; Nierop, T.; Van der Wusten, H.

    1996-01-01

    The results of a literature study on the socio-economic impacts of climate change and the possibilities of violent conflicts enhanced by the greenhouse effect are presented. The socio-economic impacts are classified according to the economic sectors agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, water, construction, transport, tourism and recreation and discussed in Chapter 2. The impacts on property, ecosystems and human well being are outlined in chapter 3. Chapter 4 deals with climate change and environmental security, and discusses the most important concepts of security and their relation to climate change. Chapter 5 deals with already existing and potential conflicts, that may be enhanced by the greenhouse effect as a result of resource scarcity, particularly related to availability of food and water. On the basis of the literature study and an analysis of research gaps propositions are made on new areas of research to be undertaken. The study emphasizes the need to further study the impact on agriculture in semi-arid zones, the impact on water availability in sensitive regions, a further analysis of the consequences of sea level rise particularly in sensitive areas and with regard to forced migration. Also further studies are required into the socio-economic impacts of changes in human health and mortality due to climate change, in relation to diseases. Special attention should be paid to migration because of environmental degradation and flooding. Extreme weather events have already been studied, but there still is a need for further insights into how extreme weather events will affect society, taking into account adaptive behaviour. Finally, in the area of socio-economic impacts, the implications of changes in ecosystems and biodiversity require further attention as these effects may be large but, at the same time, difficult to assess in economic terms. 175 refs

  11. Climate change impacts in Zhuoshui watershed, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yi-Chiung; Liu, Pei-Ling; Cheng, Chao-Tzuen; Li, Hsin-Chi; Wu, Tingyeh; Chen, Wei-Bo; Shih, Hung-Ju

    2017-04-01

    There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualty and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily. One of the aims for Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) is to demonstrate the linkage between climate change data and watershed impact models. The purpose is to understand relative disasters induced by extreme rainfall (typhoons) under climate change in watersheds including landslides, debris flows, channel erosion and deposition, floods, and economic loss. The study applied dynamic downscaling approach to release climate change projected typhoon events under RCP 8.5, the worst-case scenario. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) and FLO-2D models, then, were used to simulate hillslope disaster impacts in the upstream of Zhuoshui River. CCHE1D model was used to elevate the sediment erosion or deposition in channel. FVCOM model was used to asses a flood impact in urban area in the downstream. Finally, whole potential loss associate with these typhoon events was evaluated by the Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System (TLAS) under climate change scenario. Results showed that the total loss will increase roughly by NT 49.7 billion (1.6 billion USD) in future in Zhuoshui watershed in Taiwan. The results of this research could help to understand future impact; however model bias still exists. Because typhoon track is a critical factor to consider regional

  12. Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piontek, Franziska; Mueller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; deJesusColonGonzalez, Felipe; Floerke, Martina; Folberth, Christian; Franssen, Wietse; hide

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

  13. Climate Change, Human Rights, and Social Justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Barry S; Patz, Jonathan A

    2015-01-01

    The environmental and health consequences of climate change, which disproportionately affect low-income countries and poor people in high-income countries, profoundly affect human rights and social justice. Environmental consequences include increased temperature, excess precipitation in some areas and droughts in others, extreme weather events, and increased sea level. These consequences adversely affect agricultural production, access to safe water, and worker productivity, and, by inundating land or making land uninhabitable and uncultivatable, will force many people to become environmental refugees. Adverse health effects caused by climate change include heat-related disorders, vector-borne diseases, foodborne and waterborne diseases, respiratory and allergic disorders, malnutrition, collective violence, and mental health problems. These environmental and health consequences threaten civil and political rights and economic, social, and cultural rights, including rights to life, access to safe food and water, health, security, shelter, and culture. On a national or local level, those people who are most vulnerable to the adverse environmental and health consequences of climate change include poor people, members of minority groups, women, children, older people, people with chronic diseases and disabilities, those residing in areas with a high prevalence of climate-related diseases, and workers exposed to extreme heat or increased weather variability. On a global level, there is much inequity, with low-income countries, which produce the least greenhouse gases (GHGs), being more adversely affected by climate change than high-income countries, which produce substantially higher amounts of GHGs yet are less immediately affected. In addition, low-income countries have far less capability to adapt to climate change than high-income countries. Adaptation and mitigation measures to address climate change needed to protect human society must also be planned to protect

  14. IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN COMFORT

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prince Acheampong

    the dry season, are getting hotter and drier with increased heat waves. Increased ... about some of the possible impacts of climate change on the built environment. This is to set the ... Non-physical effects such as increased energy demand for ...

  15. 56 Hydrological Dynamics and Human Impact on Ecosystems of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    `123456789jkl''''#

    Hydrological Dynamics and Human Impact on Ecosystems of Lake Tana, Northwestern. Ethiopia. 1Amare ... and lake level data were evaluated to identify change in climate and lake level. The annual ... economic importance. The total area of ...

  16. Specific climate impact of passenger and freight transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Emissions of short-lived species contribute significantly to : the climate impact of transportation. The magnitude of the effects : varies over time for each transport mode. This paper compares : first the absolute climate impacts of current passenge...

  17. Interactions of Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Human Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, Patrick L

    2018-03-01

    I review literature on the impacts of climate change on air quality and human health, with a focus on articles published from 2013 on ozone and airborne particles. Selected previous literature is discussed where relevant in tracing the origins of our current knowledge. Climate and weather have strong influences on the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollution concentrations. Emissions of ozone and PM 2.5 precursors increase at higher ambient temperatures. The reactions that form ozone occur faster with greater sunlight and higher temperatures. Weather systems influence the movement and dispersion of air pollutants in the atmosphere through the action of winds, vertical mixing, and precipitation, all of which are likely to alter in a changing climate. Recent studies indicate that, holding anthropogenic air pollution emissions constant, ozone concentrations in populated regions will tend to increase in future climate scenarios. For the USA, the climate impact on ozone is most consistently seen in north-central and north-eastern states, with the potential for many thousands of additional ozone-related deaths. The sensitivity of anthropogenic PM 2.5 to climate is more variable across studies and regions, owing to the varied nature of PM constituents, as well as to less complete characterization of PM reaction chemistry in available atmospheric models. However, PM emitted by wildland fires is likely to become an increasing health risk in many parts of the world as climate continues to change. The complex interactions between climate change and air quality imply that future policies to mitigate these twin challenges will benefit from greater coordination. Assessing the health implications of alternative policy approaches towards climate and pollution mitigation will be a critical area of future work.

  18. Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Human Health in Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Pandey, Kiran

    2010-01-01

    This paper is one component of a global study on the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) in developing countries; the focus in this paper is human health. The main human health impacts of climate change are increased incidence of vector-borne disease (malaria), water-borne disease (diarrhea), cardio respiratory diseases, heat- and cold-related deaths, injuries and deaths from ...

  19. Downscaling climate model output for water resources impacts assessment (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, E. P.; Pierce, D. W.; Cayan, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    Water agencies in the U.S. and around the globe are beginning to wrap climate change projections into their planning procedures, recognizing that ongoing human-induced changes to hydrology can affect water management in significant ways. Future hydrology changes are derived using global climate model (GCM) projections, though their output is at a spatial scale that is too coarse to meet the needs of those concerned with local and regional impacts. Those investigating local impacts have employed a range of techniques for downscaling, the process of translating GCM output to a more locally-relevant spatial scale. Recent projects have produced libraries of publicly-available downscaled climate projections, enabling managers, researchers and others to focus on impacts studies, drawing from a shared pool of fine-scale climate data. Besides the obvious advantage to data users, who no longer need to develop expertise in downscaling prior to examining impacts, the use of the downscaled data by hundreds of people has allowed a crowdsourcing approach to examining the data. The wide variety of applications employed by different users has revealed characteristics not discovered during the initial data set production. This has led to a deeper look at the downscaling methods, including the assumptions and effect of bias correction of GCM output. Here new findings are presented related to the assumption of stationarity in the relationships between large- and fine-scale climate, as well as the impact of quantile mapping bias correction on precipitation trends. The validity of these assumptions can influence the interpretations of impacts studies using data derived using these standard statistical methods and help point the way to improved methods.

  20. Climate: a planet and men: what human influence on climate warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orsenna, E.; Petit, M.; Chabreuil, A. and others

    2011-01-01

    The authors, all members of the 'Argonauts club', have decided with other scientists, to write this book in order to allow the reader to make his own opinion about the influence of human activities on global warming. The book presents and supplies precise answers to the questions about the climate machine and its complex mechanisms according to the present day state of scientific knowledge. It takes stock of the actual climate situation and of the overall possible means at our disposal to limit the extent of the harmful anthropic impact. (J.S.)

  1. Burden Sharing with Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D.; De Cian, E.; Marangoni, G.; Hof, A.

    2014-12-01

    Efficiency and equity have been at the center of the climate change policy making since the very first international environmental agreements on climate change, though over time how to implement these principles has taken different forms. Studies based on Integrated Assessment Models have also shown that the economic effort of achieving a 2 degree target in a cost-effective way would differ widely across regions (Tavoni et al. 2013) because of diverse economic and energy structure, baseline emissions, energy and carbon intensity. Policy instruments, such as a fully-fledged, global emission trading schemes can be used to pursuing efficiency and equity at the same time but the literature has analyzed the compensations required to redistribute only mitigation costs. However, most of these studies have neglected the potential impacts of climate change. In this paper we use two integrated assessment models -FAIR and WITCH- to explore the 2°C policy space when accounting for climate change impacts. Impacts are represented via two different reduced forms equations, which despite their simplicity allows us exploring the key sensitivities- Our results show that in a 2 degree stabilization scenarios residual damages remain significant (see Figure 1) and that if you would like to compensate those as part of an equal effort scheme - this would lead to a different allocation than focusing on a mitigation based perspective only. The residual damages and adaptation costs are not equally distributed - and while we do not cover the full uncertainty space - with 2 different models and 2 sets of damage curves we are still able to show quite similar results in terms of vulnerable regions and the relative position of the different scenarios. Therefore, accounting for the residual damages and the associated adaptation costs on top of the mitigation burden increases and redistributes the full burden of total climate change.

  2. Can riparian vegetation shade mitigate the expected rise in stream temperatures due to climate change during heat waves in a human-impacted pre-alpine river?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Trimmel

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming has already affected European rivers and their aquatic biota, and climate models predict an increase of temperature in central Europe over all seasons. We simulated the influence of expected changes in heat wave intensity during the 21st century on water temperatures of a heavily impacted pre-alpine Austrian river and analysed future mitigating effects of riparian vegetation shade on radiant and turbulent energy fluxes using the deterministic Heat Source model. Modelled stream water temperature increased less than 1.5 °C within the first half of the century. Until 2100, a more significant increase of around 3 °C in minimum, maximum and mean stream temperatures was predicted for a 20-year return period heat event. The result showed clearly that in a highly altered river system riparian vegetation was not able to fully mitigate the predicted temperature rise caused by climate change but would be able to reduce water temperature by 1 to 2 °C. The removal of riparian vegetation amplified stream temperature increases. Maximum stream temperatures could increase by more than 4 °C even in annual heat events. Such a dramatic water temperature shift of some degrees, especially in summer, would indicate a total shift of aquatic biodiversity. The results demonstrate that effective river restoration and mitigation require re-establishing riparian vegetation and emphasize the importance of land–water interfaces and their ecological functioning in aquatic environments.

  3. Can riparian vegetation shade mitigate the expected rise in stream temperatures due to climate change during heat waves in a human-impacted pre-alpine river?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimmel, Heidelinde; Weihs, Philipp; Leidinger, David; Formayer, Herbert; Kalny, Gerda; Melcher, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Global warming has already affected European rivers and their aquatic biota, and climate models predict an increase of temperature in central Europe over all seasons. We simulated the influence of expected changes in heat wave intensity during the 21st century on water temperatures of a heavily impacted pre-alpine Austrian river and analysed future mitigating effects of riparian vegetation shade on radiant and turbulent energy fluxes using the deterministic Heat Source model. Modelled stream water temperature increased less than 1.5 °C within the first half of the century. Until 2100, a more significant increase of around 3 °C in minimum, maximum and mean stream temperatures was predicted for a 20-year return period heat event. The result showed clearly that in a highly altered river system riparian vegetation was not able to fully mitigate the predicted temperature rise caused by climate change but would be able to reduce water temperature by 1 to 2 °C. The removal of riparian vegetation amplified stream temperature increases. Maximum stream temperatures could increase by more than 4 °C even in annual heat events. Such a dramatic water temperature shift of some degrees, especially in summer, would indicate a total shift of aquatic biodiversity. The results demonstrate that effective river restoration and mitigation require re-establishing riparian vegetation and emphasize the importance of land-water interfaces and their ecological functioning in aquatic environments.

  4. Development of key indicators to quantify the health impacts of climate change on Canadians

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng, June J.; Berry, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Objectives This study aimed at developing a list of key human health indicators for quantifying the health impacts of climate change in Canada. Methods A literature review was conducted in OVID Medline to identify health morbidity and mortality indicators currently used to quantify climate change impacts. Public health frameworks and other studies of climate change indicators were reviewed to identify criteria with which to evaluate the list of proposed key indicators and a rating scale was d...

  5. Climate Change Impacts on the Congo Basin Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Franssen, W.; Jans, W.W.P.; Kruijt, B.; Supit, I.

    2012-01-01

    This report presents analyses of climate change impacts in the Congo Basin on water for agriculture and hydropower, forest ecosystem functioning and carbon storage and impacts of climate variability and change on future economic development. To quantify the impacts of future climate we developed a

  6. Impact of climate change and man-made irrigation systems on the transmission risk, long-term trend and seasonality of human and animal fascioliasis in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiran Afshan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Large areas of the province of Punjab, Pakistan are endemic for fascioliasis, resulting in high economic losses due to livestock infection but also affecting humans directly. The prevalence in livestock varies pronouncedly in space and time (1-70%. Climatic factors influencing fascioliasis presence and potential spread were analysed based on data from five mete- orological stations during 1990-2010. Variables such as wet days (Mt, water-budget-based system (Wb-bs indices and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, were obtained and correlated with geographical distribution, seasonality patterns and the two-decade evolution of fascioliasis in livestock throughout the province. The combined approach by these three indices proved to furnish a useful tool to analyse the complex epidemiology that includes (i sheep-goats and cattle- buffaloes presenting different immunological responses to fasciolids; (ii overlap of Fasciola hepatica and F. gigantica; (iii co-existence of highlands and lowlands in the area studied; and (iv disease transmission following bi-seasonality with one peak related to natural rainfall and another peak related to man-made irrigation. Results suggest a human infection situa- tion of concern and illustrate how climate and anthropogenic environment modifications influence both geographical dis- tribution and seasonality of fascioliasis risks. Increased fascioliasis risk throughout the Punjab plain and its decrease in the northern highlands of the province became evident during the study period. The high risk in the lowlands is worrying given that Punjab province largely consists of low-altitude, highly irrigated plains. The importance of livestock in this province makes it essential to prioritise adequate control measures. An annual treatment scheme to control the disease is recom- mended to be applied throughout the whole province.

  7. Impact of climate change and man-made irrigation systems on the transmission risk, long-term trend and seasonality of human and animal fascioliasis in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshan, Kiran; Fortes-Lima, Cesar A; Artigas, Patricio; Valero, Adela M; Qayyum, Mazhar; Mas-Coma, Santiago

    2014-05-01

    Large areas of the province of Punjab, Pakistan are endemic for fascioliasis, resulting in high economic losses due to livestock infection but also affecting humans directly. The prevalence in livestock varies pronouncedly in space and time (1-70%). Climatic factors influencing fascioliasis presence and potential spread were analysed based on data from five meteorological stations during 1990-2010. Variables such as wet days (Mt), water-budget-based system (Wb-bs) indices and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were obtained and correlated with geographical distribution, seasonality patterns and the two-decade evolution of fascioliasis in livestock throughout the province. The combined approach by these three indices proved to furnish a useful tool to analyse the complex epidemiology that includes (i) sheep-goats and cattlebuffaloes presenting different immunological responses to fasciolids; (ii) overlap of Fasciola hepatica and F. gigantica; (iii) co-existence of highlands and lowlands in the area studied; and (iv) disease transmission following bi-seasonality with one peak related to natural rainfall and another peak related to man-made irrigation. Results suggest a human infection situation of concern and illustrate how climate and anthropogenic environment modifications influence both geographical distribution and seasonality of fascioliasis risks. Increased fascioliasis risk throughout the Punjab plain and its decrease in the northern highlands of the province became evident during the study period. The high risk in the lowlands is worrying given that Punjab province largely consists of low-altitude, highly irrigated plains. The importance of livestock in this province makes it essential to prioritise adequate control measures. An annual treatment scheme to control the disease is recommended to be applied throughout the whole province.

  8. Climate change impacts on coffee rust disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonsi, W. M. V.; Koga-Vicente, A.; Pinto, H. S.; Alfonsi, E. L., Sr.; Coltri, P. P.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Patricio, F. R.; Avila, A. M. H. D.; Gonçalves, R. R. D. V.

    2016-12-01

    Changes in climate conditions and in extreme weather events may affect the food security due to impacts in agricultural production. Despite several researches have been assessed the impacts of extremes in yield crops in climate change scenarios, there is the need to consider the effects in pests and diseases which increase losses in the sector. Coffee Arabica is an important commodity in world and plays a key role in Brazilian agricultural exports. Although the coffee crop has a world highlight, its yield is affected by several factors abiotic or biotic. The weather as well pests and diseases directly influence the development and coffee crop yield. These problems may cause serious damage with significant economic impacts. The coffee rust, caused by the fungus Hemileia vastarix,is among the diseases of greatest impact for the crop. The disease emerged in Brazil in the 70s and is widely spread in all producing regions of coffee in Brazil, and in the world. Regions with favorable weather conditions for the pathogen may exhibit losses ranging from 30% to 50% of the total grain production. The evaluation of extreme weather events of coffee rust disease in futures scenarios was carried out using the climatic data from CMIP5 models, data field of coffee rust disease incidence and, incubation period simulation data for Brazilian municipalities. Two Regional Climate Models were selected, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5, and the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 w/m2 was adopted. The outcomes pointed out that in these scenarios the period of incubation tends to decrease affecting the coffee rust disease incidence, which tends to increase. Nevertheless, the changing in average trends tends to benefit the reproduction of the pathogen. Once the temperature threshold for the disease reaches the adverse conditions it may be unfavorable for the incidence.

  9. Fine-Scale Evaluation of Giant Panda Habitats and Countermeasures against the Future Impacts of Climate Change and Human Disturbance (2015–2050: A Case Study in Ya’an, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Zhen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The accelerating impact of climate change on giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca habitats have become an international research topic. Recently, many studies have also focused on medium-sized mountain ranges or entire giant panda habitats to predict how habitats will change as the climate warms, but few say in detail what to do or where to focus efforts. To fill this gap, this paper presents a new method to take comprehensive, fine-scale evaluations incorporating climate change, human disturbance, and current conservation networks and translate them into practical countermeasures in order to help decision-makers set priority regions for conservation. This study looked at the core area of the Sichuan Giant Panda Sanctuaries United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO World Natural Heritage site, namely Ya’an Prefecture, as a case study. The research employs the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt modeling algorithm to analyze how climate change will affect the habitats by 2050 under two scenarios: only considering the influence of climate change, and thinking about the coupled influence of climate change and human disturbance together. The results showed the following: (1 only considering climate change, the overall habitat that can be used by giant pandas in this region will increase, which differs from most of the previous results showing a decrease; (2 the new suitable habitat will shift westward, northward and eastward in this region; (3 conversely, the suitable habitat will be significantly reduced (about 58.56% and fragmentized when taking into account human disturbance factors; (4 at present, the three small nature reserves are far from each other and cannot cover the present habitat well nor protect the potentially suitable habitats. Based on the comprehensive analysis of habitat shifts and our two field investigations, we suggest two regions that can be expanded into the conservation network to contain more potentially

  10. Air Quality: its impact on climate change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Thambiran, Tirusha

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available immediate and local impacts on human health and ecosystems, whereas the effects of the greenhouse gases are more long-term, as they are able to absorb sunlight and thus contribute toward long-term changes in surface temperatures and have impacts...

  11. Climate change studies and the human sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, Poul; Winiwarter, Verena

    2017-09-01

    Policy makers have made repeated calls for integration of human and natural sciences in the field of climate change. Serious multidisciplinary attempts began already in the 1950s. Progress has certainly been made in understanding the role of humans in the planetary system. New perspectives have clarified policy advice, and three insights are singled out in the paper: the critique of historicism, the distinction between benign and wicked problems, and the cultural critique of the 'myths of nature'. Nevertheless, analysis of the IPCC Assessment Reports indicates that integration is skewed towards a particular dimension of human sciences (economics) and major insights from cultural theory and historical analysis have not made it into climate science. A number of relevant disciplines are almost absent in the composition of authorship. Nevertheless, selective assumptions and arguments are made about e.g. historical findings in key documents. In conclusion, we suggest to seek remedies for the lack of historical scholarship in the IPCC reports. More effort at science-policy exchange is needed, and an Integrated Platform to channel humanities and social science expertise for climate change research might be one promising way.

  12. The occurrence of unfavorable thermal conditions on human health in central europe and potential climate change impacts: an example from Cracow, Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piotrowicz, Katarzyna

    2009-10-01

    Progressive global warming exerts strong influence on the lives and on the health of urban residents, many of who are weather sensitive people (meteoropaths). In the temperate zone, air temperature changes largely determine the seasonal oscillation of morbidity and mortality frequency. The present study analyzes the influence of air temperature on living conditions in central European urban areas, particularly Cracow (Poland), and examines this influence against the background of climate change. During the warmer months, there is a noticeable increase in the unfavorable occurrence of especially strong thermal stimuli (e.g., hot days) which can lead to overheating of the human organism. On the other hand, the increasing frequency of mild winters contributes to the appearance of weak and moderate thermal stimuli, which in the case of the former, is a negative phenomenon. Weak thermal stimuli are liable to make the human body oversensitive and, thus lose the ability to adapt if stronger thermal stimuli were to occur. Residents of large urban areas should be prepared for the possibility of dynamic weather changes and should take thermal variability into consideration with regards to spatial urban planning and socioeconomic activities.

  13. Climate and Life: A Human Retrospective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    deMenocal, P. B.

    2014-12-01

    A renaissance scientist, Cesare Emiliani was also interested in climate change and its influence on human origins, ancient cultures, and our future. Climate shapes life across a range of time and space scales - seasons pace the cycle of death and renewal, and the diversity of all life is bounded by latitude. Each of the "big five" mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic is linked to environmental crisis. Has climate change also shaped us? Analytical advances, new sediment archives, and heroic international collaborations have brought new light to this question. Gone is the dated view of our ancestors emerging from some ancient dark forest to assert dominion over the grassy plains. In its place is new evidence for rapid and large orbital-scale climate cycles that shifted, stepwise after 2.8 and then again after 1.8 million years ago to establish the African savannah we know today. These climate events are coincident with clusters of hominin speciation, extinction, and behavioral innovation milestones that came to define us as human. The African Humid Period is one of the best and oldest examples of human cultural responses to climate change. Between 15,000-5,000 years ago the Saharan desert supported grassy, wooded plains, large lakes, and clusters of human settlements due to orbital increases in monsoonal rainfall. While there is an ongoing debate whether the end of this wet phase was fast (centuries) or slow (millennia), the rich archeological record shows that this region was depopulated and, within centuries, the first settlements appear along the Nile River near 5 ka BP. Many "firsts" are associated with these predynastic cultures of the Naqada III Period including the first named kings, pyramids, and hieroglyphs, resulting in political unification and Dynastic rule along the Nile. As these diverse lines of evidence come together, it appears as if an answer to the age-old question "How did I get here?" is no longer beyond our reach. Climate has played an important

  14. How weather impacts the forced climate response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirtman, Ben P. [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Schneider, Edwin K.; Straus, David M. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Min, Dughong; Burgman, Robert [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States)

    2011-12-15

    The new interactive ensemble modeling strategy is used to diagnose how noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics impacts the forced climate response during the twentieth century (i.e., 1870-1999). The interactive ensemble uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric component model coupled to a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models in order to reduce the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the flux exchange at the interface of the component models. A control ensemble of so-called climate of the twentieth century simulations of the Community Climate Simulation Model version 3 (CCSM3) are compared with a similar simulation with the interactive ensemble version of CCSM3. Despite substantial differences in the overall mean climate, the global mean trends in surface temperature, 500 mb geopotential and precipitation are largely indistinguishable between the control ensemble and the interactive ensemble. Large differences in the forced response; however, are detected particularly in the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. Associated with the forced North Atlantic surface temperature differences are local differences in the forced precipitation and a substantial remote rainfall response in the deep tropical Pacific. We also introduce a simple variance analysis to separately compare the variance due to noise and the forced response. We find that the noise variance is decreased when external forcing is included. In terms of the forced variance, we find that the interactive ensemble increases this variance relative to the control. (orig.)

  15. Human activities and climate and environment changes: an inevitable relation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez, Aretha

    2009-01-01

    The human interference in the environment and the consequent climate change is today a consensus. The climate change can be local, regional and global. The global climate change is mainly caused by the greenhouse gases, and consequently the climate change intervenes in the environment. The interference cycle emerges in several forms and results in several consequences. However, the Global Warming has certainly the most import global impact. The main cause of the increase in the temperature (Greenhouse Effect) is the intensive use of the fossil fuels. Thus, to minimize the climatic changes actions are necessary to reduce, to substitute and to use with more efficient the fossil fuels. Looking at the past, the old agriculturists may have released greenhouse gases since thousand years ago, thus, modifying slowly but in significant form the earth climate much before the Industrial Age. If this theory is confirmed, its consequences would be decisive for the man history in the planet. For example, in parts of the North America and Europe the current temperatures could be even four Celsius degrees smaller. This change in temperature is enough to hinder agricultural used of these regions and consequently to diminish the human development. The main focus of this work is to perform a retrospective in some of civilizations who collapse due to environmental problems and make a historical description of the human activities (agriculture and livestock) since the primordium of the man up to the Industrial Age, aiming at the man interference on the natural dynamics of the global climate and the environment. This work will show through data comparisons and inferences that the gases emissions from these activities had a significant magnitude comparatively by the emissions after the Industrial Age. It is also demonstrated that the climate and environment interference was inevitable because the human evolution was caused by these activities. Another important point of this work is to

  16. Modelling climate change impacts on stream habitat conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, Eva; Conallin, John; Karthikeyan, Matheswaran

    Impact from groundwater abstraction on freshwater resources and ecosystems is an issue of sincere concern in Denmark and many other countries worldwide. In addition, climate change projections add complexity to the existing conflict between water demands to satisfy human needs and water demands...... required to conserve streams as biologically diverse and healthy ecosystems. Solutions to this intensifying conflict require a holistic approach whereby stream biota is related to their physical environment at catchment scale, as also demanded by the EU Water Framework Directive. In the present study......, climate impacts on stream ecological conditions were quantified by combining a heat and mass stream flow with a habitat suitability modelling approach. Habitat suitability indices were developed for stream velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrate. Generally, water depth was found...

  17. How is climate change impacting precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, A.; Houser, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    Water is an integrating component of the climate, energy and geochemical cycles, regulating biological and ecological activities at all spatial and temporal scales. The most significant climate warming manifestation would be a change in the distribution of precipitation and evaporation, and the exacerbation of extreme hydrologic events. Due to this phenomenon and the fact that precipitation is the most important component of the water cycle, the assumption of its stationarity for water management and engineering design should be examined closely. The precipitation Annual Maximum Series (AMS) over some stations in Virginia based on in situ data were been used as a starting point to examine this important issue. We analyzed the AMS precipitation on NOAA data for the stations close to Fairfax VA, looked for trends in extreme values, and applied our new method of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory based on quadratic forms to address changes in those extreme values and to quantify non-stationarities. It is very important to address the extreme values of precipitation based on several statistical tests to have better understanding of climate change impact on the extreme water cycle events. In our study we compared our results with the conclusion on NOAA atlas 14 Ap.3 which found no sign of precipitation non-stationarity. We then assessed the impact of this uncertainty in IDF curves on the flood map of Fairfax and compared the results with the classic IDF curves.

  18. Human activities affecting trace gases and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braatz, B.; Ebert, C.

    1990-01-01

    The Earth's climate has been in a constant state of change throughout geologic time due to natural perturbations in the global geobiosphere. However, various human activities have the potential to cause future global warming over a relatively short amount of time. These activities, which affect the Earth's climate by altering the concentrations of trace gases in the atmosphere, include energy consumption, particularly fossil-fuel consumption; industrial processes (production and use of chlorofluorocarbons, halons, and chlorocarbons, landfilling of wastes, and cement manufacture); changes in land use patterns, particularly deforestation and biomass burning; and agricultural practices (waste burning, fertilizer usage, rice production, and animal husbandry). Population growth is an important underlying factor affecting the level of growth in each activity. This paper describes how the human activities listed above contribute to atmospheric change, the current pattern of each activity, and how levels of each activity have changed since the early part of this century

  19. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Se-Yeun; Ryan, Maureen E; Hamlet, Alan F; Palen, Wendy J; Lawler, Joshua J; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916-2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  20. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, Alan F.; Palen, Wendy J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  1. Ensemble-based Regional Climate Prediction: Political Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel, E.; Dykema, J.; Satyanath, S.; Anderson, J. G.

    2008-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of regional climate, including temperature and precipitation, have significant implications for human activities, not just economically but socially. Sub Saharan Africa is a region that has displayed an exceptional propensity for devastating civil wars. Recent research in political economy has revealed a strong statistical relationship between year to year fluctuations in precipitation and civil conflict in this region in the 1980s and 1990s. To investigate how climate change may modify the regional risk of civil conflict in the future requires a probabilistic regional forecast that explicitly accounts for the community's uncertainty in the evolution of rainfall under anthropogenic forcing. We approach the regional climate prediction aspect of this question through the application of a recently demonstrated method called generalized scalar prediction (Leroy et al. 2009), which predicts arbitrary scalar quantities of the climate system. This prediction method can predict change in any variable or linear combination of variables of the climate system averaged over a wide range spatial scales, from regional to hemispheric to global. Generalized scalar prediction utilizes an ensemble of model predictions to represent the community's uncertainty range in climate modeling in combination with a timeseries of any type of observational data that exhibits sensitivity to the scalar of interest. It is not necessary to prioritize models in deriving with the final prediction. We present the results of the application of generalized scalar prediction for regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation and Sub Saharan Africa. We utilize the climate predictions along with the established statistical relationship between year-to-year rainfall variability in Sub Saharan Africa to investigate the potential impact of climate change on civil conflict within that region.

  2. Impact of climate change on Taiwanese power market determined using linear complementarity model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tung, Ching-Pin; Tseng, Tze-Chi; Huang, An-Lei; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Hu, Ming-Che

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Impact of climate change on average temperature is estimated. ► Temperature elasticity of demand is measured. ► Impact of climate change on Taiwanese power market determined. -- Abstract: The increase in the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere causes significant changes in climate patterns. In turn, this climate change affects the environment, ecology, and human behavior. The emission of greenhouse gases from the power industry has been analyzed in many studies. However, the impact of climate change on the electricity market has received less attention. Hence, the purpose of this research is to determine the impact of climate change on the electricity market, and a case study involving the Taiwanese power market is conducted. First, the impact of climate change on temperature is estimated. Next, because electricity demand can be expressed as a function of temperature, the temperature elasticity of demand is measured. Then, a linear complementarity model is formulated to simulate the Taiwanese power market and climate change scenarios are discussed. Therefore, this paper establishes a simulation framework for calculating the impact of climate change on electricity demand change. In addition, the impact of climate change on the Taiwanese market is examined and presented.

  3. Climate change in the age of humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Curt. Stager

    2014-01-01

    The Anthropocene epoch presents a mix of old and new challenges for the world’s forests. Climatic instability has typified most of the Cenozoic Era but today’s situation is unique due to the presence of billions of humans on the planet. The potential rate and magnitude of future warming driven by continued fossil fuel combustion could be unprecedented during the last...

  4. Disentangling the impacts of climate and human colonization on the flora and fauna of the Australian arid zone over the past 100 ka using stable isotopes in avian eggshell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Gifford H.; Fogel, Marilyn L.; Magee, John W.; Gagan, Michael K.

    2016-11-01

    Throughout the Quaternary, the flora and fauna of Australia evolved and adapted to the high-amplitude, low- and high-frequency climate changes that characterized the ice-age cycles. However, during the last glacial cycle, between ∼120 and 15 ka, unprecedented irreversible changes in flora and fauna occurred, and in that same interval modern humans established their first firm presence in the landscape. Disentangling the impacts of the first-order trend toward a colder, drier planet through the Late Quaternary from the impacts of human colonization has been challenging, from both the chronological and paleoenvironmental perspectives. We utilize the stable isotopes of carbon and oxygen preserved in near-continuous time series of Dromaius (emu) eggshell from five regions across Australia to provide independent reconstructions of ecosystem status and climate over the past 100 ka. Carbon isotopes are determined by the diet consumed by the female bird, whereas oxygen isotopes record the status of local moisture balance in the months prior to breeding. Together, δ13C and δ18O provide ecosystem status and climate from the same dated sample, reducing correlation uncertainties between proxies. Combined with recent improvements in the chronologies of Late Quaternary shorelines fringing inland lake basins and deflation during arid times, these data collectively reaffirm that Australia generally became increasingly, albeit irregularly, drier from the last interglaciation through to the last glacial maximum. Dromaius eggshell δ18O documents peak aridity between 30 and 15 ka, but shows no evidence of exceptional climate change between 60 and 40 ka. In contrast, Dromaius δ13Cdiet documents an irreversible loss of the majority of palatable summer-rainfall-related C4 grasses across the Australian arid zone between 50 and 45 ka, about the same time that the giant megafaunal bird, Genyornis, became extinct, and coincident with human dispersal across the continent. Our data

  5. Climate Change Impact on Togo's Agriculture Performance: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate Change Impact on Togo's Agriculture Performance: A Ricardian Analysis Based on Time Series Data. ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... Conclusively, the impact of climate change on agriculture seems to be varied with the temperature and precipitation in different seasons. Climate ...

  6. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

  7. Tools for assessing climate impacts on fish and wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chad B. Wilsey; Joshua J. Lawler; Edwin P. Maurer; Donald McKenzie; Patricia A. Townsend; Richard Gwozdz; James A. Freund; Keala Hagmann; Karen M. Hutten

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we...

  8. The climatic change induced by human activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balairon Ruiz, L.

    2004-01-01

    The climate of the Earth is a changing climate. Along their history many natural climate changes have existed in all time scales. At the present time we use the term climate changes have existed in all time scales. At the present time we use the term climate change in a restricted way, understanding that we have referring to a singular change that has their origin in the modification of the natural composition of the atmosphere. The increase of greenhouse gases from the second half the XVIII century, is due to the human activities of fossil fuels burning to obtain energy and to industrial and agricultural activities needing for the development of a world which population has been duplicated between 1960 and 2000, until overcoming the 6,000 million inhabitants. In particular, the concentrations of carbon dioxide-CO 2 have increased in a 34%. The more recent emission scenarios proposed by the IPCC (SRES, 2000) are based on hypothesis about the population evolution, the energy consumption and the word patterns of development, which are grouped in four families dominated as A1, A2, B1 and B2. The answer for these scenarios from a range of climate models results in an increase of the world average surface atmospheric temperature between 1,4 degree centigrade and 5,8 degree centigrade and a corresponding sea level rise understood between 9 cm and 88 cm. The changes in the precipitation patterns show us that could be above to the current one in high and media latitudes and below in subtropical latitudes, with exceptions highly depending of the model used. (Author)

  9. Qualitative Assessment: Evaluating the Impacts of Climate ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The South Fork Nooksack River (South Fork) is located in northwest Washington State and is home to nine species of Pacific salmon, including Nooksack early Chinook (aka, spring Chinook salmon), an iconic species for the Nooksack Indian Tribe. The quantity of salmon in the South Fork, especially spring Chinook salmon, has dramatically declined from historic levels, due primarily to habitat degradation from the legacy impacts of various land uses such as commercial forestry, agriculture, flood control, and transportation infrastructure. Segments of the South Fork and some of its tributaries exceed temperature criteria established for the protection of cold-water salmonid populations, and were listed on Washington State’s Clean Water Act (CWA) 303(d) list of impaired waterbodies. High water temperatures in the South Fork are detrimental to fish and other native species that depend on cool, clean, well-oxygenated water. Of the nine salmon species, three have been listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) and are of high priority to restoration efforts in the South Fork—spring Chinook salmon, summer steelhead trout, and bull trout. Growing evidence shows that climate change will exacerbate legacy impacts. This qualitative assessment is a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on freshwater habitat and Pacific salmon in the South Fork. It also evaluates the effectiveness of restoration tools that address Pacific salmon recovery.

  10. The Impact of Tipuana tipu Species on Local Human Thermal Comfort Thresholds in Different Urban Canyon Cases in Mediterranean Climates: Lisbon, Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre Santos Nouri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Based upon the case of Lisbon, this article examined the in-situ effects of vegetation upon pedestrian thermal comfort levels. Focussing specifically upon the historic quarter that often witnesses the highest Tamb values and Urban Heat Island (UHI intensities during the summer, the most common urban canyon cases (UCCs were modelled, along with one of the most commonly used vegetative semi-deciduous species found in the city, Tipuana tipu. Based upon a reference point (RP system, the assessments were undertaken through the use of a new version of the SkyHelios model, local obtained Grad values, and the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET index calculated through the human-biometeorological model RayMan. The study identified the in-situ thermo-physiological influences of Tipuana tipu during different periods of the year: (1 during the summer, which revealed considerable reductions of PET/mPET of up to 15.6 °C/11.6 °C during a very hot day (where daily maximum Tamb surpassed 35 °C; and (2 during the winter, which revealed the risks of oversharing as a result of the species keeping its foliage during the winter with reductions of PET/mPET of up to 2.7 °C/2.6 °C. Furthermore, the study utilised the climate tourism/transfer information scheme (CTIS to categorise and facilitate the interpretation of the results.

  11. Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. Transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-08-01

    A brief summary of research over the past five years in the field of climate change, as it relates to key sectors in Canada, is presented in the report entitled: Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. The emphasis of this chapter is on transportation, the role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities, and capitalizing on potential opportunities. Other sectors, such as fisheries, the coastal zone, tourism and human health might be affected by decisions made with regard to transportation. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in transportation include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost. Most of the attention has been devoted to infrastructure and operations issues in northern Canada, despite most of the transportation activities taking place in southern Canada. Milder and or shorter winters might lead to savings, but additional knowledge is required before quantitative estimates can be made. The changed frequency of extreme climate events, and or changes in precipitation may influence other weather hazards or inefficiencies. If Canadians are prepared to be proactive, the report indicated that the effects of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable. 77 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  12. Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. Transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-08-01

    A brief summary of research over the past five years in the field of climate change, as it relates to key sectors in Canada, is presented in the report entitled: Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. The emphasis of this chapter is on transportation, the role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities, and capitalizing on potential opportunities. Other sectors, such as fisheries, the coastal zone, tourism and human health might be affected by decisions made with regard to transportation. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in transportation include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost. Most of the attention has been devoted to infrastructure and operations issues in northern Canada, despite most of the transportation activities taking place in southern Canada. Milder and or shorter winters might lead to savings, but additional knowledge is required before quantitative estimates can be made. The changed frequency of extreme climate events, and or changes in precipitation may influence other weather hazards or inefficiencies. If Canadians are prepared to be proactive, the report indicated that the effects of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable. 77 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  13. On the climatic impact of contrails

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strauss, B; Meerkoetter, R; Wissinger, B; Wendling, P [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1998-12-31

    The impact of contrail induced cirrus clouds on regional climate is estimated for atmospheric conditions of Southern Germany that are typical for the months of July and October. This is done by the use of a regionalized one-dimensional radiative convective model (RCM). The influence of an increased ice cloud cover is studied by comparing RCM results using averaged climatological values of cloudiness with those of a case with modified cloudiness. It turns out that a 10% increase in ice cloud cover leads to a surface temperature increase of 1.4 K and 1.2 K for the months of July and October, respectively. (author) 14 refs.

  14. On the climatic impact of contrails

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strauss, B.; Meerkoetter, R.; Wissinger, B.; Wendling, P. [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-31

    The impact of contrail induced cirrus clouds on regional climate is estimated for atmospheric conditions of Southern Germany that are typical for the months of July and October. This is done by the use of a regionalized one-dimensional radiative convective model (RCM). The influence of an increased ice cloud cover is studied by comparing RCM results using averaged climatological values of cloudiness with those of a case with modified cloudiness. It turns out that a 10% increase in ice cloud cover leads to a surface temperature increase of 1.4 K and 1.2 K for the months of July and October, respectively. (author) 14 refs.

  15. What's happening out there? (Climatic change impacts)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Visconti, G.

    1990-01-01

    This article briefly comments on some stumbling-blocks to climatic change modelling accuracy - in assessments of the greenhouse effect, 25% (missing link) of atmospheric carbon dioxide absorption is still unaccounted for; 1989 World Bank estimates of the Amazon rain forest deforestation rate have since proven to be inaccurate; there are difficulties in assessing the movement of the earth's crust relative to variations in sea level; and different studies vary in results relative to global temperature measurement and trend assessment. The need for an assessment of the economic impacts of increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide is also pointed out

  16. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  17. Impacts of climate change on extreme wave climate along the Western Coast of Sri Lanka

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bamunawala, R. M.J.; Hettiarachchi, S. S.L.; Samarawickrama, S. P.; Wikramanayake, P. N.; Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Baptiste, Alison

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and climate change driven impacts are most widely argued topics among contemporary researchers and scientists. Broadly there are two schools of thought that present entirely contrasting perceptions about the overall concept of climate change and its impacts. While one of the

  18. Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N

    2012-01-01

    Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...

  19. Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply ... In a context of positive economic growth, demand for water is expected to ... Socially equitable climate action is essential to strengthen the resilience of all ...

  20. How Will Climate Change Impact Cholera Outbreaks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Rahimikolu, J.; Akanda, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Environmental parameters associated with cholera are well documented. However, cholera continues to be a global public health threat. Uncertainty in defining environmental processes affecting growth and multiplication of the cholera bacteria can be affected significantly by changing climate at different temporal and spatial scales, either through amplification of the hydroclimatic cycle or by enhanced variability of large scale geophysical processes. Endemic cholera in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia has a unique pattern of two seasonal peaks and there are associated with asymmetric and episodic variability in river discharge. The first cholera outbreak in spring is related with intrusion of bacteria laden coastal seawater during low river discharge. Cholera occurring during the fall season is hypothesized to be associated with high river discharge related to a cross-contamination of water resources and, therefore, a second wave of disease, a phenomenon characteristic primarily in the inland regions. Because of difficulties in establishing linkage between coarse resolutions of the Global Climate Model (GCM) output and localized disease outbreaks, the impact of climate change on diarrheal disease has not been explored. Here using the downscaling method of Support Vector Machines from HADCM3 and ECHAM models, we show how cholera outbreak patterns are changing in the Bengal Delta. Our preliminary results indicate statistically significant changes in both seasonality and magnitude in the occurrence of cholera over the next century. Endemic cholera is likely to transform into epidemic forms and new geographical areas will be at risk for cholera outbreaks.

  1. Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in Northern India: Impact and adaptation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moors, E.J.; Singh, T.; Siderius, C.; Balakrishnan, S.; Mishra, A.

    2013-01-01

    Although several studies show the vulnerability of human health to climate change, a clear comprehensive quantification of the increased health risks attributable to climate change is lacking. Even more complicated are assessments of adaptation measures for this sector. We discuss the impact of

  3. Climate change -- Its impacts on Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sobhan, M.A.

    1994-01-01

    Predictions regarding the possible effects of global warming on Bangladesh's climate are uncertain. However, the predictions for 2030 made by four General Circulation Models all suggest that there might be increased precipitation, with estimates ranging between 5 and 100% increases in rainfall. Increases of these magnitudes, if they were to occur, would have significant implications for agriculture, flooding, river sediment loads, and flood protection works. Increased flooding of the coastal areas of countries like Bangladesh is a possibility, and enormous health and economic distress and human suffering may follow. With the change in temperature, there may be unpredictable change in bacterial and viral morphology with health hazards of unpredictable limits. It has been estimated that a 100 cm rise in sea level in the Bay of Bengal would result in 12--18% of land areas of Bangladesh being lost to the sea, including most of the Sundarbans. Although it is difficult to predict the timing and magnitude of all the global changes including sea-level rise, climate change, etc., it is anticipated that one of the most serious consequence for Bangladesh would be the reduction of already minimal land: person ratio and consequently exacerbating pressure on the remaining natural resources. Bangladesh is in favor of an international agreement for assistance to vulnerable countries like Bangladesh to take necessary preparations and adopt measures to survive a sea-level rise, climate change, increased flooding, and more frequent storm surges

  4. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THEIR INDELIBLE IMPACT ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    2017-12-28

    Dec 28, 2017 ... Environmental degradation has presented a myriad of challenges to the human race ... KEY TERMS: climate change, global warming, social work, ..... posed by climate change, they may migrate and find employment in urban ...

  5. Health and equity impacts of climate change in Aotearoa-New Zealand, and health gains from climate action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Hayley; Jones, Rhys; Keating, Gay; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Metcalfe, Scott

    2014-11-28

    Human-caused climate change poses an increasingly serious and urgent threat to health and health equity. Under all the climate projections reported in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, New Zealand will experience direct impacts, biologically mediated impacts, and socially mediated impacts on health. These will disproportionately affect populations that already experience disadvantage and poorer health. Without rapid global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (particularly from fossil fuels), the world will breach its carbon budget and may experience high levels of warming (land temperatures on average 4-7 degrees Celsius higher by 2100). This level of climate change would threaten the habitability of some parts of the world because of extreme weather, limits on working outdoors, and severely reduced food production. However, well-planned action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could bring about substantial benefits to health, and help New Zealand tackle its costly burden of health inequity and chronic disease.

  6. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  7. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aanund Killingtveit

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

  8. Climate Impacts on Northern Canada: Regional Background

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prowse, Terry D.; Peters, Daniel L. (Water and Climate Impacts Research Centre, Environment Canada, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada)). e-mail: terry.prowse@ec.gc.caa; Furgal, Chris (Indigenous Environmental Studies Program, Trent Univ., Peterborough, ON (Canada)); Bonsal, Barrie R. (National Water Research Inst., National Hydrology Research Centre, Environment Canada, Saskatoon, SK (Canada))

    2009-07-15

    Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 deg C in the south to as low as -20 deg C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be >700 mm y-1 in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y-1 over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

  9. Ask the climate question : adapting to climate change impacts in urban regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    As the first responders to the impacts of climate change, local governments play a crucial role in implementing the actions and strategies that will reduce their communities vulnerability to the dangers of a changing climate. This type of action o...

  10. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

    OpenAIRE

    Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified l...

  11. Impact of Global Climate on Rift Valley Fever and other Vector-borne Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linthicum, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    Rift Valley fever is a viral disease of animals and humans in Africa and the Middle East that is transmitted by mosquitoes. Since the virus was first isolated in Kenya in 1930 it has caused significant impact to animal and human health and national economies, and it is of concern to the international agricultural and public health community. In this presentation we will describe the (1) ecology of disease transmission as it relates to climate, (2) the impact of climate and other environmental conditions on outbreaks, (3) the ability to use global climate information to predict outbreaks, (4) effective response activities, and (4) the potential to mitigate globalization.

  12. Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activities in Languedoc (Southern France)

    OpenAIRE

    J. Azuara; N. Combourieu-Nebout; V. Lebreton; F. Mazier; S. D. Müller; L. Dezileau

    2015-01-01

    Holocene climate fluctuations and human activities since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to reconstruct Mediterranean paleoenvironments over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics ove...

  13. Interrelationships between climate and human cultural development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolitschka, B.

    2010-03-01

    Human influence on the environment increased continuously during the late Holocene and often interferes with the reconstruction of climatic fluctuations in natural archives. However, for the first millennium BC there exist convincing evidences of a climatic deterioration determined by geological, geomorphological, paleoecological and archaeological records from Europe and beyond. A fluctuation in the -14C record from tree rings indicates that this climatic setback seems to be of a global character which would support its solar origin. Geochemical and physical data of very well-dated lacustrine sediments from a German maar (Lake Holzmaar, West Eifel Volcanic Field) records a dramatic environmental change which coincides with or follows this climatic deterioration at 800 BC. These changes are related to a conspicuous shift towards an increased erosion of the soils in the catchment area. Thus sediment yields of the lacustrine system more than quadruple from the low mean mid-Holocene (7900-800 BC) level of 1.5 t km-2 yr-1 to values of 6.3 t km-2 yr-1 for the last centuries of the first millennium BC, i.e. until the start of the Roman occupation in the West Eifel region around 50 BC. Still, this elevated sediment yield value is rather low compared to 19 t km-2 yr-1 reached during the period of the Roman Empire (50 BC-400 AD) or even to 25 t km-2 yr-1 that were gained during the Middle Ages (11th to 13th century). During the Migration Period and the early Middle Ages, however, sediment yield data decreased again to almost mid-Holocene values of 2.3 t km-2 yr-1. Whether the shift in ecosystem stability following immediately after 800 BC was triggered by a solar-induced climatic change cannot absolutely be excluded but must be cast into doubt. Intensive deforestation indicated by pollen analyses suggests that human cultural development from the late Bronze Age to the early Iron Age, accompanied by the introduction of iron tools, was the reason for this alteration. Using

  14. Climate change impacts on corn phenology and productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is changing around the world and will impact future production of all food and feed crops. Corn is no exception to these impacts and to ensure a future supply of this vital crop we must begin to understand how climate impacts both the phenological development of corn and the productivity. Te...

  15. Papers of the CWRA climate change symposium : understanding climate change impacts on Manitoba's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This symposium provided an opportunity for discussions on climate change issues with particular reference to the impacts on Manitoba's water resources. The presentations addressed issues of importance to governments, scientists, academics, managers, consultants and the general public. Topics of discussion ranged from climate change impacts on water quality, wetlands, hydropower, fisheries and drought, to adaptation to climate change. Recent advances in global and regional climate modelling were highlighted along with paleo-environmental indicators of climate change. The objective was to provide a better understanding of the science of climate change. The conference featured 16 presentations of which 1 was indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  16. Human capital, innovation, and climate policy: An integrated assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Tavoni, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    This paper looks at the interplay between human capital and innovation in the presence of climate and educational policies. Using recent empirical estimates, human capital and general purpose R&D are introduced in an integrated assessment model that has been extensively applied to study the climate change mitigation. Our results suggest that climate policy stimulates general purpose as well as clean energy R&D but reduces the incentive to invest in human capital formation. Human capital incre...

  17. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  18. Middle and late Holocene climate change and human impact inferred from diatoms, algae and aquatic macrophyte pollen in sediments from Lake Montcortès (NE Iberian Peninsula)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scussolini, P.; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Rull, V.; Corella, J.P.; Valero-Garcés, B.; Gomà, J.

    2011-01-01

    During the middle and late Holocene, the Iberian Peninsula underwent large climatic and hydrologic changes, but the temporal resolution and regional distribution of available palaeoenvironmental records is still insufficient for a comprehensive assessment of the regional variability. The high

  19. Canadian climate impacts program. Programme Canadien des incidences climatologiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1987-01-01

    In recognition of the impact of climate and climatic fluctuations on society, a Canadian Climate Program was established in 1978 to integrate the efforts of various federal and provincial agencies, as well as the universities and private sector, in the field of climatology. One of the program's main components since 1984 has been research to assess and identify the potential social and economic impacts of climate warming expected under a doubled carbon dioxide scenario. These and other studies over the last several years have clearly shown that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations have the potential for profound impacts on Canada's physical environment. However, they also show that there is considerable uncertainty associated with the magnitude of the expected climate warming and with understanding the relationships between climate, the biophysical environment, and socioeconomic systems. This report summarizes the program and specific studies including those on the impact of climate change on navigation and power generation, agriculture, tourism and recreation, and the marine environment.

  20. Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusa, Anna; Berry, Peter; J Cheng, June; Ogden, Nicholas; Bonsal, Barrie; Stewart, Ronald; Waldick, Ruth

    2015-07-17

    Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health.

  1. Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusa, Anna; Berry, Peter; Cheng, June J.; Ogden, Nicholas; Bonsal, Barrie; Stewart, Ronald; Waldick, Ruth

    2015-01-01

    Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health. PMID:26193300

  2. Impact of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanganyado, Edmond; Teta, Charles; Masiri, Busani

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies show cultural worldviews are a key determinant of environmental risk perceptions; thus, they could influence climate change adaptation strategies. African traditional worldviews encourage harmony between humans and the environment through a complex metaphysical belief system transmitted through folklore, taboos, and traditional knowledge. However, African traditional worldviews hold a belief in traditional gods that was shown to have a low connectedness to nature and a low willingness to change. In Makueni District, Kenya, 45% of agropastoralists surveyed believed drought was god's plan and could not be changed. In contrast, traditional knowledge, which is shaped by African traditional worldviews, is often used to frame adaptive strategies such as migration, changing modes of production, and planting different crop varieties. Furthermore, traditional knowledge has been used as a complement to science in areas where meteorological data was unavailable. However, the role of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaption remains understudied. Hence, there is a need to systematically establish the influence of African traditional worldviews on climate change risk perception, development of adaptive strategies, and policy formulation and implementation. In this commentary, we discuss the potential impacts of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:189-193. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

  3. Effects of human activities on global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellogg, W W

    1977-01-01

    At present it is difficult to make any predictions for the natural course of climate in the next several decades. However by using climate models, predictions of the cause of climate changes as a result of anthropogenic influences can be made, other external factors remaining the same. Experiments with a number of different models have converged on approximately the same conclusions: the largest single effect of human activities on climate is due to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel combustion, i.e., air and thermal pollution, which contributes to a warming of the lower atmosphere; the best estimate of the warming of the mean surface temperature of the earth is about 1C by 2000 AD and 3C by 2050 AD with 3 to 5 times that increase in polar regions, and an uncertainty of roughly a factor of two. These conclusions assume a continued quasi exponential rate of release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Absorption of the added carbon dioxide is expected to take between 1000 and 1500 years. If all economically recoverable fossil fuel is burned in the next few centuries, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide would increase by 5 to 8 times. An example of a natural warming on a similar scale to that expected in the middle of the next century occurred 4000 to 8000 years ago. Generally there was more rainfall especially over the present sub-tropical deserts, but some regions in middle and high latitudes were drier than now. The extent of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice would be influenced. The total volume of the major ice sheets would change, but a change in sea level cannot yet be predicted with any confidence.

  4. A second look at the impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ausubel, J.H.

    1991-01-01

    In an effort to summarize popular perceptions of the human impacts of global warming, the author scanned magazine and newspaper articles and records of Congressional hearings, and looked at visual material ranging from book covers and cartoons to educational video tapes. He noticed that certain themes were sounded with confidence again and again, and that eight hypotheses seemed to form the core of the conventional wisdom. The eight hypotheses are: (1) faster change is worse; (2) waiting to make policy and to take action will drive up the costs of response; (3) there are only losers from climatic change; (4) the most important impacts will be on agriculture and from sea level rise; (5) changes in extremes will be more important than changes in means; (6) the changes envisioned are unprecedented; (7) impacts will be worse on less-developed countries than on developed countries; and (8) there are hedging strategies that are clearly economical. In this article, the author makes an effort to test these hypotheses against research findings from the literature about the impacts of climate change, which has burgeoned since the late 1970s. As with any group of hypotheses, some hold up better than others on close inspection; a few appear to bear little relation to what evidence has been gathered. He offers a revised set of statements and some thoughts about the directions for future research and policy debate that are suggested by this exercise

  5. Climate Change, Human Health, and Biomedical Research: Analysis of the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balbus, John M.; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E.; Newton, Sheila A.; Reid, Britt C.; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P.

    2013-01-01

    Background: According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. Objectives: In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. Methods: A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. Results: This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Conclusions: Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH’s strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health. PMID:23552460

  6. Climate change, human health, and biomedical research: analysis of the National Institutes of Health research portfolio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessup, Christine M; Balbus, John M; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E; Newton, Sheila A; Reid, Britt C; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P

    2013-04-01

    According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH's strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health.

  7. The impact of climate change on the European energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowling, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling demand in the residential and services sector, changes in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in hydro, wind (both on- and off-shore) and solar PV electricity output. Results of the impacts of six scenarios on the European energy system are presented, and the implications for European energy security and energy imports are presented. Main findings include: demand side impacts (heating and cooling in the residential and services sector) are larger than supply side impacts; power generation from fossil-fuel and nuclear sources decreases and renewable energy increases; and impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. There remain many more climate change impacts on the energy sector that cannot currently be captured due to a variety of issues including: lack of climate data, difficulties translating climate data into energy-system-relevant data, lack of detail in energy system models where climate impacts act. This paper does not attempt to provide an exhaustive analysis of climate change impacts in the energy sector, it is rather another step towards an increasing coverage of possible impacts. - Highlights: • Expanded coverage of climate change impacts on European energy system. • Demand side impacts are larger than supply side impacts. • Power from fossil and nuclear sources decreases, renewable energy increases. • Impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. • Synergies exist between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation

  8. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  9. Climate change impact on flood hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Brilly

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes have a high impact on river discharges and therefore on floods. There are a few different methods we can use to predict discharge changes in the future. In this paper we used the complex HBV model for the Vipava River and simple correlation between discharge and precipitation data for the Soča River. The discharge prediction is based on the E-OBS precipitation data for three future time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Estimated discharges for those three future periods are presented for both rivers. But a special situation occurs at the confluence where the two rivers with rather different catchments unite, and this requires an additional probability analysis.

  10. Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in Mancha Oriental (Spain)

    OpenAIRE

    M. Pulido-Velazquez; S. Peña-Haro; A. Garcia-Prats; A. F. Mocholi-Almudever; L. Henriquez-Dole; H. Macian-Sorribes; A. Lopez-Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate an...

  11. Managing climate change impacts on tourism: Mitigating and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate is considered to be a tourist resource, and it is widely acknowledged that the nature and distribution of tourist activities are affected by climatic elements. Changing world climatic regimes are therefore likely to have long term impacts on tourism activities, resources and distribution patterns. South African tourism will ...

  12. Climate Change Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation in the ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation in the Lowland and Wetland Areas of Delta State, Nigeria. Project Abstract. Climate change has huge implications for Nigeria and for the rest of the world. This project will enhance knowledge of the key drivers of climate change by creating the Niger Delta regional ...

  13. Climate Change and Nigerian Soils: Vulnerability, Impact and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article reviewed the impact of climate change on our soils and suggested measures to combat or mitigate its negative effects on sustainable soil productivity. Climate change occurs when a situation in which a change in climate continues in one direction at a rapid rate and for an unusual long period of time. The article ...

  14. Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.E. Schindler; X. Augerot; E. Fleishman; N.J. Mantua; B. Riddell; M. Ruckelshaus; J. Seeb; M. Webster

    2008-01-01

    As climate change intensifies, there is increasing interest in developing models that reduce uncertainties in projections of global climate and refine these projections to finer spatial scales. Forecasts of climate impacts on ecosystems are far more challenging and their uncertainties even larger because of a limited understanding of physical controls on biological...

  15. Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change ...

  16. Historical Phenological Observations: Past Climate Impact Analyses and Climate Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutishauser, T.; Luterbacher, J.; Meier, N.; Jeanneret, F.; Pfister, C.; Wanner, H.

    2007-12-01

    Plant phenological observations have been found an important indicator of climate change impacts on seasonal and interannual vegetation development for the late 20th/early 21st century. Our contribution contains three parts that are essential for the understanding (part 1), the analysis (part 2) and the application (part 3) of historical phenological observations in global change research. First, we propose a definition for historical phenonolgy (Rutishauser, 2007). We shortly portray the first appearance of phenological observations in Medieval philosophical and literature sources, the usage and application of this method in the Age of Enlightenment (Carl von Linné, Charles Morren), as well as the development in the 20th century (Schnelle, Lieth) to present-day networks (COST725, USA-NPN) Second, we introduce a methodological approach to estimate 'Statistical plants' from historical phenological observations (Rutishauser et al., JGR-Biogeoscience, in press). We combine spatial averaging methods and regression transfer modeling to estimate 'statistical plant' dates from historical observations that often contain gaps, changing observers and changing locations. We apply the concept to reconstruct a statistical 'Spring plant' as the weighted mean of the flowering date of cherry and apple tree and beech budburst of Switzerland 1702- 2005. Including dating total data uncertainty we estimate 10 at interannual and 3.4 days at decadal time scales. Third, we apply two long-term phenological records to describe plant phenological response to spring temperature and reconstruct warm-season temperatures from grape harvest dates (Rutishauser et al, submitted; Meier et al, GRL, in press).

  17. Simulations of Vegetation Impacts on Arctic Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfils, C.; Phillips, T. J.; Riley, W. J.; Post, W. M.; Torn, M. S.

    2009-12-01

    Because global warming disproportionately influences high-latitude climate, changes in arctic vegetation are in progress. These land-cover changes include redistribution of local vegetation types as well as northward migration of lower-latitude species in response to the increasing warming. The resulting displacement of low-lying tundra vegetation by shrubs and trees darkens the surface, thus accelerating regional warming. As participants in the U.S. Department of Energy IMPACTS Project, we are investigating the potential for abrupt arctic climatic change resulting from such variations in vegetation, among other mechanisms. To estimate the relative magnitudes of effects to be expected from changes in high-latitude land cover, we are conducting several numerical experiments with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). These experiments include: 1) A “present-day-climate” control experiment with current atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations and climatological monthly sea surface temperatures and sea ice extents prescribed, and with “standard” CLM plant functional types (PFTs) specified; 2) A “changed-vegetation-type” experiment that is the same as 1), except that the “standard” PFTs are augmented by additional vegetation types (forbs, sedges, shrubs, mosses, and lichens) that are not presently represented in CLM. This experiment will require information on the location, fractional cover, and physiological parameterizations of these new PFTs. 3) A “changed-vegetation-extent experiment” that is the same as 2), except that the spatial extents of selected PFTs (e.g. shrubs or boreal forest PFTs) are shifted northward from their present locations in the CLM. We will report on the atmospheric climate and land-surface feedbacks associated with these vegetation changes, with emphasis on local and regional surface energy and moisture fluxes and near-surface temperature, humidity, and clouds. Acknowledgments This work was performed under the auspices

  18. Impact of climate variability on tropospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grewe, Volker

    2007-01-01

    A simulation with the climate-chemistry model (CCM) E39/C is presented, which covers both the troposphere and stratosphere dynamics and chemistry during the period 1960 to 1999. Although the CCM, by its nature, is not exactly representing observed day-by-day meteorology, there is an overall model's tendency to correctly reproduce the variability pattern due to an inclusion of realistic external forcings, like observed sea surface temperatures (e.g. El Nino), major volcanic eruption, solar cycle, concentrations of greenhouse gases, and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Additionally, climate-chemistry interactions are included, like the impact of ozone, methane, and other species on radiation and dynamics, and the impact of dynamics on emissions (lightning). However, a number of important feedbacks are not yet included (e.g. feedbacks related to biogenic emissions and emissions due to biomass burning). The results show a good representation of the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer, including the ozone hole, which plays an important role for the simulation of natural variability of tropospheric ozone. Anthropogenic NO x emissions are included with a step-wise linear trend for each sector, but no interannual variability is included. The application of a number of diagnostics (e.g. marked ozone tracers) allows the separation of the impact of various processes/emissions on tropospheric ozone and shows that the simulated Northern Hemisphere tropospheric ozone budget is not only dominated by nitrogen oxide emissions and other ozone pre-cursors, but also by changes of the stratospheric ozone budget and its flux into the troposphere, which tends to reduce the simulated positive trend in tropospheric ozone due to emissions from industry and traffic during the late 80s and early 90s. For tropical regions the variability in ozone is dominated by variability in lightning (related to ENSO) and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (related to Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric

  19. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated...... in impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  20. Indexes of leading climate indicators for impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easterling, W.E.; Kates, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    Could users of climate information for impact assessment be overlooking an important source of information in climate indicators? We argue that indexes of leading climate indicators of impacts may be usable knowledge for consumers and may provide guidance to the global climate observing community concerning the types of data and information that users need. Five classes of indexes are suggested: Climate Extremes Index (CEI) and Greenhouse Climate Response Index (GCRI) - such are already available from scientists at the US National Climatic Data Center - plus proposed indexes of Hazard Warning, Ecosystem Health, and Energy Demand and Renewable Natural Resources. We conclude that the CEI and GCRI posses several necessary attributes to become usable knowledge; the other indexes have the potential to become usable knowledge, but remain to be implemented with climate data and fully evaluated. 34 refs

  1. Indicators of climate impacts for forests: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment indicators system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda S. Heath; Sarah M. Anderson; Marla R. Emery; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Jeremy Littell; Alan Lucier; Jeffrey G. Masek; David L. Peterson; Richard Pouyat; Kevin M. Potter; Guy Robertson; Jinelle Sperry; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Sarah Jovan; Miranda H. Mockrin; Robert Musselman; Bethany K. Schulz; Robert J. Smith; Susan I. Stewart

    2015-01-01

    The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) process for the United States focused in part on developing a system of indicators to communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness to inform decisionmakers and the public. Initially, 13 active teams were formed to recommend indicators in a range of categories, including...

  2. Climate Change, Air Pollution, and the Economics of Health Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, J.; Yang, T.; Paltsev, S.; Wang, C.; Prinn, R.; Sarofim, M.

    2003-12-01

    Climate change and air pollution are intricately linked. The distinction between greenhouse substances and other air pollutants is resolved at least for the time being in the context of international negotiations on climate policy through the identification of CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 and the per- and hydro- fluorocarbons as substances targeted for control. Many of the traditional air pollutant emissions including for example CO, NMVOCs, NOx, SO2, aerosols, and NH3 also directly or indirectly affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Among both sets of gases are precursors of and contributors to pollutants such as tropopospheric ozone, itself a strong greenhouse gas, particulate matter, and other pollutants that affect human health. Fossil fuel combustion, production, or transportation is a significant source for many of these substances. Climate policy can thus affect traditional air pollution or air pollution policy can affect climate. Health effects of acute or chronic exposure to air pollution include increased asthma, lung cancer, heart disease and bronchitis among others. These, in turn, redirect resources in the economy toward medical expenditures or result in lost labor or non-labor time with consequent effects on economic activity, itself producing a potential feedback on emissions levels. Study of these effects ultimately requires a fully coupled earth system model. Toward that end we develop an approach for introducing air pollution health impacts into the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) a coupled economics-chemistry-atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial biosphere model of earth systems including an air pollution model resolving the urban scale. This preliminary examination allows us to consider how climate policy affects air pollution and consequent health effects, and to study the potential impacts of air pollution policy on climate. The novel contribution is the effort to

  3. Late Glacial to Holocene climate change and human impact in the Mediterranean : The last ca. 17ka diatom record of Lake Prespa (Macedonia/Albania/Greece)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cvetkoska, Aleksandra; Levkov, Zlatko; Reed, Jane M.; Wagner, Bernd

    2014-01-01

    Lake Prespa (Macedonia/Albania/Greece) occupies an important location between Mediterranean and central European climate zones. Although previous multi-proxy research on the Late Glacial to Holocene sequence, core Co1215 (320cm; ca. 17cal ka BP to present), has demonstrated its great value as an

  4. Climatic impact of Norwegian gas power production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aune, Finn Roar; Golombek, Rolf; Kittelsen, Sverre A.C.; Rosendal, Knut Einar

    2001-01-01

    This article discusses model calculations of the impact of a Norwegian gas power plant on the total carbon dioxide emission in Western Europe. The authors have set up a model that is based on the assumption that the European markets for electricity and gas be liberalized as defined in various EU directives. The model calculates all energy prices and the energy produced and consumed in Western Europe within a time horizon where all the capacities of the energy sector are given. If gas power plants are built in Norway after such liberalization, the model predicts a reduction of CO 2 emissions in Western Europe even if the gas power plant increases the local emission in Norway. This is primarily because of the phasing-out of the coal-fired power plants in other countries. Alternative calculations using different assumptions about taxes, transportation capacity, minimum run-off years in Norway give the same type of results. Thus, the principal result about the climatically beneficial effect of a Norwegian gas power plant is robust within the model. However, alternative assumptions about the extent of the liberalization and the time horizon may lead to other conclusions. In any case, the impact of a Norwegian gas power plant (6 TWh) is so small on the European scale as to be rather symbolic

  5. The human factor: climate change and climate communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Peter C.

    2011-01-01

    Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)......Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)...

  6. Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater resources in Nigeria. ... African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology ... of climate change induced groundwater impacts due to largely multi-scale local and regional heterogeneity, there is need to evaluate groundwater resources, quality and ...

  7. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Nigeria | Osuafor ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is brought about by natural as well as man-made factors. Climate change or global warming has negative impact on the global environment. Some of these devastating effects include volcano, landslide, erosion, flooding, drought, pests and diseases. These factors in turn impact on agriculture and ...

  8. Potential future impacts of climatic change on the Great Plains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1991-01-01

    A synopsis is provided of approaches to impact studies in the Great Plains, findings from studies of future impacts are summarized, and opportunities for enhancing understanding of future impacts are discussed. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources, forestry, recreation/tourism, and energy are summarized. Impact analyses need to look more rigorously at variability in climate, the probabilities of various climatic conditions, and the sensitivity of social and economic activities to climatic variability. Most economic impact studies have assumed no adaptive behavior on the part of economic decision makers. Credible impact assessments require an improved understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of sectors to climatic conditions, particularly variability. The energy sector in the Great Plains region is likely to be more sensitive to political developments in the Middle East than to climatic variability and change. Speculation and analysis of climate impacts have focused on supply conditions and demands, yet the sector is more keenly sensitive to policy implications of climatic change, such as the potential for fossil fuel taxes or other legislative or pricing constraints. 28 refs

  9. Simulating climate change impact on soil erosion using RUSLE model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Climate change, particularly due to the changed precipitation trend, can have a severe impact on soil erosion. The effect is more pronounced on the higher slopes of the Himalayan region. The goal of this study was to estimate the impact of climate change on soil erosion in a watershed of the Himalayan region using ...

  10. Impacts of climate change performance on building in New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camilleri, M.; Jaques, R.; Isaacs, N.

    2001-07-01

    Climate change is expected to impact on many aspects of building performance, with much of the existing and future building stock likely to be affected. Potential impacts of climate change on buildings are identified, evaluated as to how serious they might be, and actions are considered to ensure that future building performance is not compromised. Climate change scenarios for New Zealand defined the scale of climate changes considered for building performance. For each climate variable, relevant aspects of building performance were examined to determine if there is likely to be a significant impact. Where significant impacts were indicated, they were studied in detail and quantified where possible. A risk-profiling tool was formulated to cover the risk/severity of the most significant climate change impacts, which include flooding, tropical cyclones and overheating. Adaptation strategies were developed for each climate change impact, with different responses appropriate for each impact. Mitigation of greenhouse emissions is also addressed. For those risks where delaying action has serious consequences, it may be appropriate to consider changes in building or zoning regulations to anticipate the future impacts of climate change. Some implications for future building performance, design, standards and regulation are discussed. (author)

  11. Impacts of Residential Biofuel Emissions on Air Quality and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y.; Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Storelvmo, T.

    2016-12-01

    The residential biofuel sector is defined as fuelwood, agricultural residues and dung used for household cooking and heating. Aerosol emissions from this human activity play an important role affecting local, regional and global air quality, climate and public health. However, there are only few studies available that evaluate the net impacts and large uncertainties persist. Here we use the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM v5.3) within the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2, to quantify the impacts of cook-stove biofuel emissions on air quality and climate. The model incorporates a novel advanced treatment of black carbon (BC) effects on mixed-phase/ice clouds. We update the global anthropogenic emission inventory in CAM v5.3 to a state-of-the-art emission inventory from the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies integrated assessment model. Global in-situ and aircraft campaign observations for BC and organic carbon are used to evaluate and validate the model performance. Sensitivity simulations are employed to assess the impacts of residential biofuel emissions on regional and global direct and indirect radiative forcings in the contemporary world. We focus the analyses on several key regions including India, China and Sub-Saharan Africa.

  12. Climate change: the potential impact on occupational exposure to pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatto, Maria Pia; Cabella, Renato; Gherardi, Monica

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the possible influence of global climate change (GCC) on exposure to plant protection products (PPP) in the workplace. The paper has evaluated the main potential relationships between GCC and occupational exposure to pesticides, by highlighting how global warming might affect their future use and by reviewing its possible consequence on workers' exposure. Global warming, influencing the spatial and temporal distribution and proliferation of weeds, the impact of already present insect pests and pathogens and the introduction of new infesting species, could cause a changed use of pesticides in terms of higher amounts, doses and types of products applied, so influencing the human exposure to them during agricultural activities. GCC, in particular heat waves, may also potentially have impact on workers' susceptibility to pesticides absorption. Prevention policies of health in the workplace must be ready to address new risks from occupational exposure to pesticide, presumably different from current risks, since an increased use may be expected.

  13. Economy-wide impacts of climate change: A joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bigano, A.; Bosello, F.; Roson, R.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2008-01-01

    While climate change impacts on human life have well defined and different origins, the interactions among the diverse impacts are not yet fully understood. Their final effects, however, especially those involving social-economic responses, are likely to play an important role. This paper is one of

  14. Three Connected Climate Education Interactives: Carbon Cycle, Earth System Energy Flows, and Climate Change Impacts/Adaptations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussman, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai'i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. Unfortunately the vast majority of the science texts used in schools come from the US mainland and feature contexts that do not relate to the lives of Pacific island students. The curricular materials also tend to be older and to have very weak climate science content, especially with respect to tropical islands and climate change. In collaboration with public broadcast station WGBH, PCEP has developed three climate education interactives that sequentially provide an introduction to key climate change education concepts. The first in the series focuses on the global carbon cycle and connects increased atmospheric CO2 with rising global temperatures. The second analyzes Earth system energy flows to explain the key role of the increased greenhouse effect. The third focuses on four climate change impacts (higher temperatures, rising sea level, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification), and adaptation strategies to increase resiliency of local ecosystems and human systems. While the interactives have a Pacific island visual and text perspective, they are broadly applicable for other education audiences. Learners can use the interactives to engage with the basic science concepts, and then apply the climate change impacts to their own contexts.

  15. Uncovering Local Impacts – The Influence of Transnational Municipal Climate Networks on Urban Climate Governance

    OpenAIRE

    Busch, Henner; Bendlin, Lena; Fenton, Paul; Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, many cities have joined transnational municipal climate networks (TMCNs), which were set up in response to climate change. Despite the fact that some of these TMCNs have been active for more than two decades, there has been no systematic investigation of the networks’ impact on local climate governance. In this article we attempt to answer if and how local climate governance has been influenced by municipalities’ memberships in TMCNs. Our assessment is based on an online surv...

  16. Modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture, forestry and fishery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bala, B.K.; Munnaf, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in climate affect agriculture, forest and fisheries. This paper examines the climate change impact on crop production, fishery and forestry using state - of - the - art modeling technique. Crop growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the climate change impacts on the yields of rice, wheat and maize in Bangladesh. Historical climate change scenario has little or no negative impacts on rice and wheat yields in Mymensingh and Dinajpur but IPCC climate change scenario has higher negative impacts. There is almost no change in the yields of maize for the historical climate change scenario in the Chittagong, Hill Tracts of but there is a small decrease in the yields of rice and maize for IPCC climate change scenario. A new statistical model to forecast climate change impacts on fishery in the world oceans has been developed. Total climate change impact on fishery in the Indian Ocean is negative and the predictor power is 94.14% for eastern part and 98.59% for the western part. Two models are presented for the mangrove forests of the Sundarbans. To bole volumes of the pioneer, intermediate and climax are simulated for three different logging strategies and the results have been discussed in this paper. (author)

  17. Mode, load, and specific climate impact from passenger trips.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Berntsen, Terje

    2013-07-16

    The climate impact from a long-distance trip can easily vary by a factor of 10 per passenger depending on mode choice, vehicle efficiency, and occupancy. In this paper we compare the specific climate impact of long-distance car travel with coach, train, or air trips. We account for both, CO2 emissions and short-lived climate forcers. This particularly affects the ranking of aircraft's climate impact relative to other modes. We calculate the specific impact for the Global Warming Potential and the Global Temperature Change Potential, considering time horizons between 20 and 100 years, and compare with results accounting only for CO2 emissions. The car's fuel efficiency and occupancy are central whether the impact from a trip is as high as from air travel or as low as from train travel. These results can be used for carbon-offsetting schemes, mode choice and transportation planning for climate mitigation.

  18. Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendelsohn, R.; Williams, L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile

  19. Climate change and health in the United States of America: impacts, adaptations, and research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jouan, R.; Magaud, M.

    2009-11-01

    After a description of the various impacts of climate change on human health, this report describes and comments the impacts of climate change on health in the USA: impacts of heat waves, of air quality degradation, of extreme climate events, of climate change on infectious diseases and allergies, regional impacts of climate change. In a second part, it describes the strategies of adaptation to the 'climate change and health' issue in the USA: mitigation and adaptation to climate change, adaptation challenges, insufficiently prepared public health system, adaptation to heat waves, adaptation to air quality degradation, adaptation to extreme climate events, adaptation to food- and water-based diseases and to vector-based diseases, examples of proactive adaptation. The last part describes the organisation of research on 'climate change and health' in the USA: nowadays and in the future, role of federal agencies, priority research axes. The 'United States Global Change Research Program' is presented in appendix, as well as the most important research centres (mostly in universities)

  20. Climate change: a review of its health impact and perceived awareness by the young citizens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

    2014-04-16

    In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University's students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences.

  1. Climate Change: A Review of Its Health Impact and Percieved Awareness by the Young Citizens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

    2014-01-01

    In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University’s students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. PMID:24999143

  2. A review of the consequences of global climate change on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ki-Hyun; Kabir, Ehsanul; Ara Jahan, Shamin

    2014-01-01

    The impact of climate change has been significant enough to endanger human health both directly and indirectly via heat stress, degraded air quality, rising sea levels, food and water security, extreme weather events (e.g., floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc.), vulnerable shelter, and population migration. The deterioration of environmental conditions may facilitate the transmission of diarrhea, vector-borne and infectious diseases, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, malnutrition, etc. Indirect effects of climate change such as mental health problems due to stress, loss of homes, economic instability, and forced migration are also unignorably important. Children, the elderly, and communities living in poverty are among the most vulnerable of the harmful effects due to climate change. In this article, we have reviewed the scientific evidence for the human health impact of climate change and analyzed the various diseases in association with changes in the atmospheric environment and climate conditions.

  3. Risk Formulations versus Comprehensive Uncertainty Characterizations for Climate Extremes and their Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parish, E. S.; Ganguly, A. R.

    2009-12-01

    Climate extremes—defined inclusively as extreme hydro-metrological events and regional changes in climate patterns at decadal scales—and their impacts on natural, engineered or human systems, represent among the most significant knowledge-gaps in climate prediction and integrated assessments in a post-AR4 world. Risks and uncertainties are related but distinct concepts. However, their relevance to decision-support tools in the context of climate change is indisputable. The opportunities and challenges are presented with case studies developed for stakeholders and policy makers.

  4. Climate impacts of parameterized Nordic Sea overflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Large, William G.; Briegleb, Bruce P.

    2010-11-01

    A new overflow parameterization (OFP) of density-driven flows through ocean ridges via narrow, unresolved channels has been developed and implemented in the ocean component of the Community Climate System Model version 4. It represents exchanges from the Nordic Seas and the Antarctic shelves, associated entrainment, and subsequent injection of overflow product waters into the abyssal basins. We investigate the effects of the parameterized Denmark Strait (DS) and Faroe Bank Channel (FBC) overflows on the ocean circulation, showing their impacts on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the North Atlantic climate. The OFP is based on the Marginal Sea Boundary Condition scheme of Price and Yang (1998), but there are significant differences that are described in detail. Two uncoupled (ocean-only) and two fully coupled simulations are analyzed. Each pair consists of one case with the OFP and a control case without this parameterization. In both uncoupled and coupled experiments, the parameterized DS and FBC source volume transports are within the range of observed estimates. The entrainment volume transports remain lower than observational estimates, leading to lower than observed product volume transports. Due to low entrainment, the product and source water properties are too similar. The DS and FBC overflow temperature and salinity properties are in better agreement with observations in the uncoupled case than in the coupled simulation, likely reflecting surface flux differences. The most significant impact of the OFP is the improved North Atlantic Deep Water penetration depth, leading to a much better comparison with the observational data and significantly reducing the chronic, shallow penetration depth bias in level coordinate models. This improvement is due to the deeper penetration of the southward flowing Deep Western Boundary Current. In comparison with control experiments without the OFP, the abyssal ventilation rates increase in the North

  5. Climate Change: A Review of Its Health Impact and Percieved Awareness by the Young Citizens

    OpenAIRE

    Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

    2014-01-01

    In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from differe...

  6. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Methodology for qualitative uncertainty assessment of climate impact indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Rechid, Diana; Hänsler, Andreas; Pfeifer, Susanne; Roth, Ellinor; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing an integrated platform of climate data services to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change and climate change impacts. In this project, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) has been in charge of the development of a methodology on how to assess the uncertainties related to climate impact indicators. Existing climate data portals mainly treat the uncertainties in two ways: Either they provide generic guidance and/or express with statistical measures the quantifiable fraction of the uncertainty. However, none of the climate data portals give the users a qualitative guidance how confident they can be in the validity of the displayed data. The need for such guidance was identified in CLIPC user consultations. Therefore, we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment that provides the users with climate impact indicator-specific guidance on the degree to which they can trust the outcome. We will present an approach that provides information on the importance of different sources of uncertainties associated with a specific climate impact indicator and how these sources affect the overall 'degree of confidence' of this respective indicator. To meet users requirements in the effective communication of uncertainties, their feedback has been involved during the development process of the methodology. Assessing and visualising the quantitative component of uncertainty is part of the qualitative guidance. As visual analysis method, we apply the Climate Signal Maps (Pfeifer et al. 2015), which highlight only those areas with robust climate change signals. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Reference Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D.: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections

  8. Impacts of climate change on electricity network business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martikainen, A.

    2006-04-01

    Climate has a significant impact on the electricity network business. The electricity network is under the weather pressure all the time and it is planned and constructed to withstand normal climatic stresses. The electricity network that has been planned and constructed now, is expected to be in operation next 40 years. If climatic stresses change in this period, it can cause significant impacts on electricity network business. If the impacts of climate change are figured out in advance, it is possible to mitigate negative points of climate change and exploit the positive points. In this paper the impact of climate change on electricity network business is presented. The results are based on RCAO climate model scenarios. The climate predictions were composed to the period 2016. 2045. The period 1960.1990 was used as a control period. The climate predictions were composed for precipitation, temperature, hoarfrost, thunder, ground frost and wind. The impacts of the change of the climate variables on electricity network business were estimated from technical and economical points of view. The estimation was based on the change predictions of the climate variables. It is expected that climate change will cause more damages than benefits on the electricity network business. The increase of the number of network faults will be the most significant and demanding disadvantage caused by climate change. If networks are not improved to be more resistant for faults, then thunder, heavy snow and wind cause more damages especially to overhead lines in medium voltage network. Increasing precipitation and decreasing amount of ground frost weaken the strength of soil. The construction work will be more difficult with the present vehicles because wet and unfrozen ground can not carry heavy vehicles. As a consequence of increasing temperature, the demand of heating energy will decrease and the demand of cooling energy will increase. This is significant for the electricity

  9. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessement Report (AR4) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database contains observed responses to climate...

  10. Adapting to and coping with the threat and impacts of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reser, Joseph P; Swim, Janet K

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to adequately communicate and explain how a more psychological framing of the human dimensions of global environmental change can greatly inform and enhance effective and collaborative climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and research. An integrative framework is provided that identifies and considers important mediating and moderating parameters and processes relating to climate change adaptation, with particular emphasis given to environmental stress and stress and coping perspectives. This psychological perspective on climate change adaptation highlights crucial aspects of adaptation that have been neglected in the arena of climate change science. Of particular importance are intra-individual and social "psychological adaptation" processes that powerfully mediate public risk perceptions and understandings, effective coping responses and resilience, overt behavioral adjustment and change, and psychological and social impacts. This psychological window on climate change adaptation is arguably indispensable to genuinely multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research and policy initiatives addressing the impacts of climate change.

  11. Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements—such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity—and functions—specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The

  12. Impact of Climate Change on India's Monsoonal Climate: Present ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature over India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenarios · Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020's, 2050's and 2080's · Likely Future Paradox of Monsoon-ENSO Links · High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Scenarios.

  13. Modeling the uncertain impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liebetrau, A.M.

    1992-08-01

    Human and earth systems are extremely complex processes. The modeling of these systems to assess the effects of climate change is an activity fraught with uncertainty. System models typically involve the linking of a series of computer codes, each of which is a detailed model of some physical or social process in its own right. In such system models, the output from one process model is the input to another. Traditional methods for dealing with uncertainty are inadequate because of the sheer complexity of the modeling effort: Monte Carlo methods and the exhaustive evaluation of ''what if?'' scenarios estimate sensitivities fail because of the heavy computational burden. More efficient methods are required for learning about system models that are constructed from a collection of computer codes. A two-tiered modeling approach is being developed to estimate the distribution of outcomes from a series of nested models. The basic strategy is to develop a simplified executive, or simplified system code (SSC), that is analogous to the more complex underlying code. An essential feature of the SSC is that it uses information abstracted from the detailed underlying process codes in a manner that preserves their essential features and interactions among them. Of course, to be useful, the SSC must be much faster to run than its complex counterpart. The success of the SSC modeling strategy depends on the methods used to extract essential features of the complex underlying codes

  14. Assessing the impact of climatic change in cold regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parry, M L; Carter, T R [eds.

    1984-01-01

    The report describes the use of models to predict the consequences of global warming in particular (cold) regions. The workshop focused on two related issues: (a) the current sensitivity of ecosystems and farming systems to climatic variability, and (b) the range of impacts likely for certain changes of climate. This report addresses four broad themes: (1) the nature of the research problem; (2) methods of evaluating sensitivity to climatic variability; (3) methods of measuring the impact of climate change; and (4) how these methods might be refined. (ACR)

  15. Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Forestry Development in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Forestry and forest ecosystem are highly sensitive to climate change.At present,studies about the responses of forests to climate change in China are more focused on physical influences of climate change.This paper firstly divided the key impact factors of climate change on forest and forestry developing into direct factors and indirect factors,and then made an assessment on climate change affecting future forestry development from the aspect of forest products and ecological services.On this basis,the adap...

  16. The Climate Impact of the Household Sector in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aunan, K.; Berntsen, T. K.; Rypdal, K.; Streets, D. G.; Woo, J.; Smith, K. R.

    2005-05-01

    If it ever enters into force the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change is likely to be small. The USA and Australia have not ratified the Protocol and the initial emission reduction target was only 5.2 per cent. There is an increasing call for post-Kyoto climate treaties, whether they be global or regional, to widen the scope to take into account the impacts that air pollutants as tropospheric ozone and aerosols may have on climate. There are two main reasons for this. First and foremost, there is increasing evidence that these air pollutants play an important role in the climate system. Secondly, it is suggested that including radiative forcing components that also have adverse impacts on human health and environment may increase participation, which will be a prerequisite for future treaties to be effective. China's approval of the Kyoto Protocol in 2002 suggests that it is considering a more active role in the global effort to mitigate global warming. Given its many other priorities, however, China needs to understand what national policies would reduce its contribution to global warming in the most cost-efficient way and at the same time contribute the most to economic and social development in the country. The objective of the present study is to contribute knowledge that is helpful to Chinese policy makers dealing with this question. We do this by addressing emissions that according to the World Health Organisation are among the leading health risks to people in the developing world, China included, i.e. smoke from solid fuels burned in peoples' homes. In China, about 72 per cent of the population lives in rural or peri-urban areas where use of simple, low-efficiency household stoves for coal or biomass is common. Even though the residential sector stands for no more than 11 per cent of the primary energy consumption (biomass included), the sector contributes to, e.g., more than 70 per cent of Chinese emissions of black carbon, about a third of its

  17. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  18. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  19. Human Development report 2007/2008 - Fighting climate change: human solidarity in a divided world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Climate change is the defining human development challenge of the 21. Century. Failure to respond to that challenge will stall and then reverse international efforts to reduce poverty. The poorest countries and most vulnerable citizens will suffer the earliest and most damaging setbacks, even though they have contributed least to the problem. Looking to the future, no country - however wealthy or powerful - will be immune to the impact of global warming. The Human Development Report 2007/2008 shows that climate change is not just a future scenario. Increased exposure to droughts, floods and storms is already destroying opportunity and reinforcing inequality. Meanwhile, there is now overwhelming scientific evidence that the world is moving towards the point at which irreversible ecological catastrophe becomes unavoidable. Business-as-usual climate change points in a clear direction: unprecedented reversal in human development in our lifetime, and acute risks for our children and their grandchildren. There is a window of opportunity for avoiding the most damaging climate change impacts, but that window is closing: the world has less than a decade to change course. Actions taken - or not taken - in the years ahead will have a profound bearing on the future course of human development. The world lacks neither the financial resources nor the technological capabilities to act. What is missing is a sense of urgency, human solidarity and collective interest. As the Human Development Report 2007/2008 argues, climate change poses challenges at many levels. In a divided but ecologically interdependent world, it challenges all people to reflect upon how we manage the environment of the one thing that we share in common: planet Earth. It challenges us to reflect on social justice and human rights across countries and generations. It challenges political leaders and people in rich nations to acknowledge their historic responsibility for the problem, and to initiate deep and

  20. [Evolution of the climate change concept and its impact in the public health of Peru].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez Zavaleta, Carlos A

    2016-03-01

    The term "climate change" is not a new concept but its impact on public health is under constant review. We know that climate has already changed and will continue to change for centuries with the rise in average global temperature, and the associated rise in sea level. This fact makes mitigation efforts relevant only in the very long term and for generations of humans whose parents have not yet been born. When we talk about public health in the context of climate change, we are talking about adaptation. In the present, countries that are currently the most affected by climate change are precisely countries like Peru, without a significant carbon footprint at the global level but that are highly sensitive to the effects of climate. Without reliable climate projections, the health impact of climate change can be uncertain and complicated. Nevertheless, at the local level, every district can identify its vulnerabilities and define priorities to protect the health of its population. There are, and it can also be developed, environmental health indicators that can help monitor how well we are adapting and how prepared we are for changes in the climate. Adaptation to climate change implies improving living conditions, enhancing epidemiological surveillance systems and extending access to healthcare. The fight against the effects of climate change in public health is a fight against poverty and inequality, and that is nothing new in Peru.

  1. Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-07-01

    Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley

  2. Questioning Complacency: Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Brien, Karen; Eriksen, Siri; Sygna, Linda; Naess, Lars Otto

    2006-01-01

    Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation

  3. Climate change impacts on global agricultural land availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiao; Cai Ximing

    2011-01-01

    Climate change can affect both crop yield and the land area suitable for agriculture. This study provides a spatially explicit estimate of the impact of climate change on worldwide agricultural land availability, considering uncertainty in climate change projections and ambiguity with regard to land classification. Uncertainty in general circulation model (GCM) projections is addressed using data assembled from thirteen GCMs and two representative emission scenarios (A1B and B1 employ CO 2 -equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations of 850 and 600 ppmv, respectively; B1 represents a greener economy). Erroneous data and the uncertain nature of land classifications based on multiple indices (i.e. soil properties, land slope, temperature, and humidity) are handled with fuzzy logic modeling. It is found that the total global arable land area is likely to decrease by 0.8-1.7% under scenario A1B and increase by 2.0-4.4% under scenario B1. Regions characterized by relatively high latitudes such as Russia, China and the US may expect an increase of total arable land by 37-67%, 22-36% and 4-17%, respectively, while tropical and sub-tropical regions may suffer different levels of lost arable land. For example, South America may lose 1-21% of its arable land area, Africa 1-18%, Europe 11-17%, and India 2-4%. When considering, in addition, land used for human settlements and natural conservation, the net potential arable land may decrease even further worldwide by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios due to population growth. Regionally, it is likely that both climate change and population growth will cause reductions in arable land in Africa, South America, India and Europe. However, in Russia, China and the US, significant arable land increases may still be possible. Although the magnitudes of the projected changes vary by scenario, the increasing or decreasing trends in arable land area are regionally consistent.

  4. Quantifying the Climate Impacts of Land Use Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.; Snyder, P. K.; Twine, T. E.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change mitigation efforts that involve land use decisions call for comprehensive quantification of the climate services of terrestrial ecosystems. This is particularly imperative for analyses of the climate impact of bioenergy production, as land use change is often the single most important factor in determining bioenergy’s sustainability. However, current metrics of the climate services of terrestrial ecosystems used for policy applications—including biofuels life cycle analyses—account only for biogeochemical climate services (greenhouse gas regulation), ignoring biophysical climate regulation services (regulation of water and energy balances). Policies thereby run the risk of failing to advance the best climate solutions. Here, we present a quantitative metric that combines biogeochemical and biophysical climate services of terrestrial ecosystems, the ‘climate regulation value’ (CRV), which characterizes the climate benefit of maintaining an ecosystem over a multiple-year time frame. Using a combination of data synthesis and modeling, we calculate the CRV for a variety of natural and managed ecosystem types within the western hemisphere. Biogeochemical climate services are generally positive in unmanaged ecosystems (clearing the ecosystem has a warming effect), and may be positive or negative (clearing the ecosystem has a cooling effect) for managed ecosystems. Biophysical climate services may be either positive (e.g., tropical forests) or negative (e.g., high latitude forests). When averaged on a global scale, biogeochemical services usually outweigh biophysical services; however, biophysical climate services are not negligible. This implies that effective analysis of the climate impacts of bioenergy production must consider the integrated effects of biogeochemical and biophysical ecosystem climate services.

  5. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Overview of Sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuebbles, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts by sector, including water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The resulting findings for the climate change impacts on these sectors are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge. Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. Threats to human health will increase. Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses. Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. There are a variety of thresholds in

  6. Climate Change Impacts on Future Wave Climate around the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William G. Bennett

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the changes in future storm wave climate is crucial for coastal managers and planners to make informed decisions required for sustainable coastal management and for the renewable energy industry. To investigate potential future changes to storm climate around the UK, global wave model outputs of two time slice experiments were analysed with 1979–2009 representing present conditions and 2075–2100 representing the future climate. Three WaveNet buoy sites around the United Kingdom, which represent diverse site conditions and have long datasets, were chosen for this study. A storm event definition (Dissanayake et al., 2015 was used to separate meteorologically-independent storm events from wave data, which in turn allowed storm wave characteristics to be analysed. Model outputs were validated through a comparison of the modelled storm data with observed storm data for overlapping periods. Although no consistent trends across all future clusters were observed, there were no significant increases in storm wave height, storm count or storm power in the future, at least according to the global wave projection results provided by the chosen model.

  7. Climate Change and Human Occupation in Denmark and Syria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrøder, Niels; Jensen, Gitte; Limborg, Magnus

    2007-01-01

    the main changes in human activities in the areas. It also confirms that the climatic histories of the sites are closely correlated - with strong ties to global causes of climate change. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) caused contrasting rainfall conditions in Denmark and Levant. Over a period of one......Classical sites for studies of human occupation and climatic changes in Denmark and Syria - have been re-examined. A detailed geological/geophysical mapping of selected sites and geochemical /palynological analysis of cores/profiles confirms that climate change has been the decisive factor behind....... The changes in human occupation in Syria and in Denmark both seems to correlate with the proxies of climate change esp. the change from Atlantic to Subboreal around 4000BC, the change from Subboreal to Subatlantic around 500 BC are marked in as well the climate record and archaeological records (monsoon...

  8. assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    71

    model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate. 24 change on rainfall ... to project future climate data based on the CO2 emission scenarios.The RCMs are of finer ..... Springer Science+Business. 2.

  9. Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charmian M. Bennett

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world’s poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health.

  10. Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability On Agriculture and Forestry in the Humid and Sub-Humid Tropics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Y.; Wang, C.; Wang, S.; Tibig, Lourdes V.

    2005-01-01

    Although there are different results from different studies, most assessments indicate that climate variability would have negative effects on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. Cereal crop yields would decrease generally with even minimal increases in temperature. For commercial crops, extreme events such as cyclones, droughts and floods lead to larger damages than only changes of mean climate. Impacts of climate variability on livestock mainly include two aspects; impacts on animals such as increase of heat and disease stress-related death, and impacts on pasture. As to forestry, climate variability would have negative as well as some positive impacts on forests of humid and sub-humid tropics. However, in most tropical regions, the impacts of human activities such as deforestation will be more important than climate variability and climate change in determining natural forest cover

  11. Impact of climate change on Gironde estuary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laborie, Vanessya; Hissel, Francois; Sergent, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    Within the THESEUS European project, a simplified mathematical model for storm surge levels in the Bay of Biscay was adjusted on 10 events at Le Verdon using wind and pressure fields from CLM/SGA, so that the water levels at Le Verdon have the same statistic quantiles as observed tide records for the period [1960-2000]. A numerical model of the Gironde Estuary was used to evaluate future water levels at 6 locations of the estuary from Le Verdon to Bordeaux and to assess the changes in the quantiles of water levels during the 21. century using ONERC's pessimistic scenario for sea level rise (60 cm). The analysis of future storm surge levels shows a decrease in their quantiles at Le Verdon,, whereas there is an increase of the quantiles of total water levels. This increase is smaller than the sea level rise and gets even smaller as one enters farther upstream in the estuary. A series of flood maps for different return periods between 2 and 100 years and for four time periods ([1960-1999], [2010-2039], [2040-2069] and [2070-2099]) have been built for the region of Bordeaux. Quantiles of water levels in the flood plain have also been calculated. The impact of climate change on the evolution of flooded areas in the Gironde Estuary and on quantiles of water levels in the flood plain mainly depends on the sea level rise. Areas which are not currently flooded for low return periods will be inundated in 2100. The influence of river discharges and dike breaching should also be taken into account for more accurate results. (authors)

  12. Impact of climate change on Gironde Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laborie, Vanessya; Hissel, François; Sergent, Philippe

    2014-05-01

    Within the THESEUS European project, a simplified mathematical model for storm surge levels in the Bay of Biscay was adjusted on 10 events at Le Verdon using wind and pressure fields from CLM/SGA, so that the water levels at Le Verdon have the same statistic quantiles as observed tide records for the period [1960-2000]. The analysis of future storm surge levels shows a decrease in their quantiles at Le Verdon, whereas there is an increase of the quantiles of total water levels. This increase is smaller than the sea level rise and gets even smaller as one enters farther upstream in the estuary. A numerical model of the Gironde Estuary was then used to evaluate future water levels at 6 locations of the estuary from Le Verdon to Bordeaux and to assess the changes in the quantiles of water levels during the XXIst century using ONERC's pessimistic scenario for sea level rise (60 cm). The model was fed by several data sources : wind fields at Royan and Mérignac interpolated from the grid of the European Climatolologic Model CLM/SGA, a tide signal at Le Verdon, the discharges of Garonne (at La Réole), the Dordogne (at Pessac) and Isle (at Libourne). A series of flood maps for different return periods between 2 and 100 years and for four time periods ([1960-1999], [2010-2039], [2040-2069] and [2070-2099]) have been built for the region of Bordeaux. Quantiles of water levels in the floodplain have also been calculated. The impact of climate change on the evolution of flooded areas in the Gironde Estuary and on quantiles of water levels in the floodplain mainly depends on the sea level rise. Areas which are not currently flooded for low return periods will be inundated in 2100. The influence of river discharges and dike breaching should also be taken into account for more accurate results.

  13. Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Green, Rhys E.

    2006-01-01

    likely to decrease. Species with restricted distributions and specialized species of particular biomes are likely to suffer the greatest impacts. Migrant species are likely to suffer especially large impacts as climatic change alters both their breeding and wintering areas, as well as critical stopover......Potential climatic changes of the near future have important characteristics that differentiate them from the largest magnitude and most rapid of climatic changes of the Quaternary. These potential climatic changes are thus a cause for considerable concern in terms of their possible impacts upon...... biodiversity. Birds, in common with other terrestrial organisms, are expected to exhibit one of two general responses to climatic change: they may adapt to the changed conditions without shifting location, or they may show a spatial response, adjusting their geographical distribution in response...

  14. Strategic plant choices can alleviate climate change impacts: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espeland, Erin K; Kettenring, Karin M

    2018-06-01

    Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) uses biodiversity and ecosystem services to reduce climate change impacts to local communities. Because plants can alleviate the abiotic and biotic stresses of climate change, purposeful plant choices could improve adaptation. However, there has been no systematic review of how plants can be applied to alleviate effects of climate change. Here we describe how plants can modify climate change effects by altering biological and physical processes. Plant effects range from increasing soil stabilization to reducing the impact of flooding and storm surges. Given the global scale of plant-related activities such as farming, landscaping, forestry, conservation, and restoration, plants can be selected strategically-i.e., planting and maintaining particular species with desired impacts-to simultaneously restore degraded ecosystems, conserve ecosystem function, and help alleviate effects of climate change. Plants are a tool for EbA that should be more broadly and strategically utilized. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. An analysis of climatic impacts and adaptation strategies in Tanzania

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ojoyi, MM

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management An analysis of climatic impacts and adaptation strategies in Tanzania Mercy M. Ojoyi School of Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa... of feedback results from analysis of variance tests conducted. Major indicators of climate variability and change include: increased dry spells (39.7 per cent), drying of rivers (34.7 per cent), a reduction in water flows (14.6 per cent) and poor economy...

  16. About climate changes impact on the Kazakhstan pastures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lebed', L.V.; Belenkova, Z.S.; Turbacheva, T.P.

    1997-01-01

    Assessment of arid pastures vulnerability situated under direct influence of regional climate change related with greenhouse effect is carried out on Northern Aral Sea area as example. Climate change variants calculated with future prospects for on Kazakhstan territory with use up-to-date models of GFDL (USA), CCCM (Canada) climate theory are used. Number of protective measures are proposed for mitigation of consequences of possible vulnerability of pastures during simultaneous impact of complex of anthropogenic and natural factors. (author)

  17. Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Deryng, Delphine

    2014-01-01

    As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

  18. The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael

    2017-04-01

    One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European

  19. The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.

    2012-04-01

    Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising

  20. Preparing for climate change impacts in Norway's built environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robert Lisoe, K.; Aandahl, G.; Eriksen, S.; Alfsen, K.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the Norwegian climate policy and of the practical implications of preparing Norway for climate change, with special emphasis on the challenges confronting the built environment. Although the Norwegian government has been relatively proactive in instituting measures aimed at halting global climate change, less attention has been paid to the challenge of adapting to climate change. The global climate system is likely to undergo changes, regardless of the implementation of abatement policies under the Kyoto Protocol or other regimes. The full range of impacts resulting from these changes is still uncertain; however, it is becoming increasingly clear that adaptation to climate change is necessary and inevitable within several sectors. The potential impacts of climate change in the built environment are now being addressed. Both the functionality of the existing built environment and the design of future buildings are likely to be altered by climate change impacts, and the expected implications of these new conditions are now investigated. However, measures aimed at adjustments within individual sectors, such as altering the criteria and codes of practice for the design and construction of buildings, constitute only a partial adaptation to climate change. In order to adapt effectively, larger societal and intersectoral adjustments are necessary. (author)

  1. Wildlife as biological indicators for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, A.W.

    1990-01-01

    Estimates of the impacts of climate change on wildlife are necessarily constrained by knowledge of the effects of climate on wildlife. A review is presented of the better-known impacts of climate on wildlife, examining their utility as ecological indicators. The most obvious feature of any species is its geographic distribution, or range. Climate may affect distribution indirectly through effects on habitat, directly through physiological effects, or most probably, through both. Impacts can include changes in distribution of habitat, changes in distribution of species, and changes in migration routes. Direct effects of climate include timing and success of breeding, timing and success of migration, winter survival, and extreme events. Distribution changes are powerful integrators of ecosystem-level events, but poor indicators of particular changes. Changes in the timing of migration, and the phenology of breeding, are more directly determined by weather events and hence will be better indicators of changing climate. Detailed knowledge of effects of climate on timing and success of breeding is available for only a few species, and has not been carefully synthesized with a view to using such variables as climatic indicators. Temperature maxima and minima, frost-free and degree days, and estimates of precipitation on finer scales, both temporal and geographic, are needed to predict the effects of climate change on wildlife. 48 refs

  2. Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, Diego P; Gianoli, Ernesto; Morris, William F; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2017-02-01

    While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  3. Global climate change impacts in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a and integrates those results wit...

  4. Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The populations, infrastructure and ecology of cities are at risk from the impacts of climate change which affect urban ventilation and cooling, urban drainage and flood risk and water resources. Built areas exert considerable influence over their local climate and environment, and urban populations are already facing a ...

  5. Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for smallholder agricultural systems in Uganda. ... from encroaching on swamps, which is one of the reported adaptation strategies to climate related stresses. Improving productivity of important crops (bananas for southwest, and sweet potatoes and bananas

  6. Impacts of climate variability and change on beekeeping productivity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated impacts of climate variability and change on Beekeeping productivity in Sunya, Kijungu and Olgira villages in Kiteto District in Manyara region in Tanzania. Specific objectives of the study were to identify the contribution of honey bees to community livelihoods, to identify climate related factors which ...

  7. The impact of climate change on hydro-electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musy, A.; Music, B.; Roy, R.

    2008-01-01

    Hydropower is the leading source of electrical production in many countries. It is a clean and renewable source and certainly will continue to play an important role in the future energy supply. However, the effects of climate change on this valuable resource remain questionable. In order to identify the potential initiatives that the hydropower industry may undertake, it is important to determine the current state of knowledge of the impacts of climate change on hydrological variables at regional and local scales. Usually, the following steps are taken. First, general circulation models (GCMs) are used to simulate future climate under assumed greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Then, different techniques (statistical downscaling/regional climate models) are applied to downscale the GCM outputs to the appropriate scales of hydrological models. Finally, hydrologic models are employed to simulate the effects of climate change at regional and local scales. Outputs from these models serve as inputs to water management models that give more details about hydropower production. In the present study, realized by OURANOS upon the request of CEATI, a critical review of the methods used to determine impact of climate change on water resources and hydropower generation is carried out. The major results from recent studies worldwide are reported and future scientific actions to better understand climate change impacts on the hydrological regime are identified. The study is expected to provide direction for the hydropower industry to mitigate the impacts of climate change. (author)

  8. Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Africa | Igbokwe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examined the arguments for and against the climate change phenomenon and attempted to weigh in with presentation of available evidence. It finally drew from literature and reviewed possible impacts of climate change in Africa. It concluded by calling for a wakening and preparedness by African governments ...

  9. Projected climate change impacts in rainfall erosivity over Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change projections and historical analyses have shown alterations in global precipitation dynamics, and therefore, it is also expected that there will be associated changes to soil erosion rates. The impacts of climate change on soil erosion may bring serious economic, social, and environmen...

  10. Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.; Huisjes, Martijn; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Demuth, Siegfried; Gustard, Alan; Planos, Eduardo; Scatena, Fred; Servat, Eric

    2006-01-01

    It is crucial for low flow management that information about the impacts of climate change on low flows and the uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in

  11. Impacts of Climate Chnage on Terrestrial Ecosystems Functioning - An Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beier, Claus; Ambus, Per; Amdal, M. F.

    the different climate change factors may not belinear and/or predictable. Computer models may predict some ofthese interactions relatively well (e.g. resource limitations due toincreased growth), while other interactions may be unpredictable.8 beier, c., et al.The assumption that the impact of the "climate...

  12. Appropriate modelling of climate change impacts on river flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.

    2002-01-01

    Global climate change is likely to increase temperatures, change precipitation patterns and probably raise the frequency of extreme events. Impacts of climate change on river flooding may be considerable and may cause enormous economical, social and environmental damage and even loss of lives. This

  13. Climate change trends and environmental impacts in the Makonde Communal Lands, Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishumael Sango

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available During the last century, climate has increasingly become variable and changeable, with significant deviations from the observed normal averages, which often leads to disruptive consequences to ecosystems and livelihoods. Climate change induced environmental challenges are viewed to be particularly severe to economically challenged tropical societies including the Zimbabwean rural communities. We sought to determine local level climate change trends and associated biophysical implications in the Makonde Communal Lands of Zimbabwe. Our findings suggest that there has been significant climate change in the Makonde Communal Lands since 1962. The climate change observed has induced the deterioration of ecosystem productivity, diversity and services, to the detriment of human livelihoods. We provide insights into how to better understand local level dynamics between climate change and local ecosystem goods and services as the basis of livelihood in marginalised rural communities. Among the key reasons for concern about impacts of anthropogenic activities on climate is the fact that changing climate has direct impacts on the biophysical world, which in turn is a vital asset for human livelihoods, economies and general well-being.

  14. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holper, Paul; Nolan, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: In 2005, the Victorian Government contracted CSIRO, Maunsell Australia and Phillips Fox to undertake an overview assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on the State's infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses. The Government released the assessment in May 2007. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and long-term operators. The work was undertaken on the basis that it should not be assumed that future climate and its impacts will simply be an extension of what has been experienced in the past. Major infrastructure items have long useful life spans (20-100 years). A bridge built today is expected to still be in use in tens, if not hundreds, of years. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures should occur now. Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing potential damage to existing infrastructure.lnfrastructure types examined were water, power, telecommunications, transport and buildings. The climate change projections used in this report are based on CSIRO climate modelling, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic and other variables considered were temperature, rainfall, available moisture, humidity, winds, fire-weather frequency and intensity, solar radiation levels and sea-level rise. For each climate change variable identified, we described a worst-case impact for low and high climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070. The assessment was made on the basis of 'business as usual' with no adaptation responses to climate change. The report also details the current governance structures associated with each infrastructure type. Overall, the report assessed the likely impact of climate change on

  15. Climate change impacts on German cities and actions for preserving quality of life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schetke Sophie

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Also German cities -as many other cities worldwide- will be affected by impacts of climate change. Starting from the German Adaptation Strategy to climate change, the paper presents a short literature review on impacts of climate change and on fields of action for German municipalities and urban planners to adapt to it. The literature review shows that main negative impacts of climate change in Germany are due to rising temperatures and cities will also need to cope with altered precipitation regimes. But also positive impacts such as reduced heating costs are reported. Additionally, the paper highlights a second phenomenon, which also causes specific demands for urban planners regarding human health and quality of life in German cities: demographic change. Altering demographic patterns within the society will lead to altered demands for healthy living conditions. Moreover, findings from the literature show that specific groups of the society - such as the elderly - are especially vulnerable towards impacts of climate change. A concrete sensitivity towards overheating or bad air is reported. Both phenomena may simultaneously impact on German urban structures and will demand closer attention now and in the future. Consequently, specific fields of action to adapt to climate change will be presented highlighting their possible contribution sustaining quality of life in cities.

  16. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  17. Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Serdeczny, Olivia; Adams, Sophie; Baarsch, Florent; Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel; Perrette, Mahé; Reinhardt, Julia

    2017-01-01

    The repercussions of climate change will be felt in various ways throughout both natural and human systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change projections for this region point to a warming trend, particularly in the inland subtropics; frequent occurrence of extreme heat events; increasing

  18. A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate

  19. The climate impact of future energy peat production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagberg, Linus; Holmgren, Kristina

    2008-09-15

    The aim of this study was to estimate total greenhouse gas emissions and climate impact of different peat utilisation scenarios, using a life cycle perspective. This and previous studies show that the climate impact from energy peat utilisation is more complex than just considering the emissions at the combustion stage. There are important emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases that occur on the peatland before, during and after peat harvest. The results show that the climate impact of future peat utilisation can be significantly reduced compared to current utilisation and will be lower than the climate impact resulting from only the combustion phase. This can be achieved by choosing already drained peatlands with high greenhouse gas emissions, using a more efficient production method and by securing a low-emission after-treatment of the cutaway (e.g. afforestation)

  20. Impact of climate change on insect pests of trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moraal, L.G.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, L.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, G.A.J.M.

    2008-01-01

    There are many interactions and it is exetremely difficult to predict the impact of climate change on insect pests in the future, but we may expect an increase of certain primary pests as well as secondary pests and invasive species

  1. Salmon Population Summary - Impacts of climate change on Pacific salmon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This work involves 1) synthesizing information from the literature and 2) modeling impacts of climate change on specific aspects of salmon life history and...

  2. Enhancing Resilience to Water-Related Impacts of Climate Change ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Enhancing Resilience to Water-Related Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda's ... technologies (ICTs) can be used to help communities address water stress. ... This work will support the Uganda Ministry of Water and Environment's efforts to ...

  3. Impact intensities of climatic changes on grassland ecosystems in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. NJ TONUKARI

    2012-03-22

    Mar 22, 2012 ... Construction of the impact intensity model of climatic changes on grassland ecosystem ... the temperature and rainfall (Sun and Mu, 2011). Thus, the study ... of the equation, the study transformed the measurement unit Mu of.

  4. The health impacts of climate change and variability in developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menne, B. [WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Rome (Italy). Global Change and Health; Kunzil, N. [Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine University, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Basel and Keck School of Medicine; Bertollini, R. [WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen (Denmark). Technical Support Div.

    2002-07-01

    Health is a focus reflecting the combined impacts of climate change on the physical environment, ecosystems, the economic environment and society. Long-term changes in the world's climate may affect many requisites of good health - sufficient food, safe and adequate drinking water and secure dwelling. The current large-scale social and environmental changes mean that we must assign a much higher priority to population health in the policy debate on climate change. Climate change will affect human health and wellbeing through a variety of mechanisms. Climate change can adversely impact on the availability of fresh water supply and the efficiency of local sewerage systems. It is also likely to affect food security. Cereal yields are expected to increase at high and mid latitudes but decrease at lower latitudes. Changes in food production are likely to significantly affect health in Africa. In addition, the distribution and seasonal transmission of several vector-borne infectious diseases (such as malaria and dengue) may be affected by climate change. Altered distribution of some vector species may be among the early signals of climate change. A change in the world climate could increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. The impacts on health of natural disasters are considerable - the number of people killed, injured or made homeless from such causes is increasingly alarming. The vulnerability of people living in risk-prone areas is an important contributor to disaster casualties and damage. An increase in heatwaves (and possibly air pollution) will be a problem in urban areas, where excess mortality and morbidity is currently observed during hot weather episodes. We can assume that climate change will affect the most vulnerable in developing countries. These might be socio-economic deprived populations, people who lack access to a health care system, technology and communication, as well as immuno compromised persons. The health community

  5. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  6. Climate Change and the Impact on Respiratory and Allergic Disease: 2018.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demain, Jeffrey G

    2018-03-24

    The purpose of this paper is to review allergic respiratory disease related to indoor and outdoor exposures and to examine the impact of known and projected changes in climate. The global burden of disease directly attributed to climate change is very difficult to measure and becomes more challenging when the capacity of humans to adapt to these changes is taken into consideration. Allergic respiratory disease, such as asthma, is quite heterogenous, though closely associated with environmental and consequently immunologic interaction. Where is the tipping point? Our climate has been measurably changing for the past 100 years. It may indeed be the most significant health threat of the twenty-first century, and consequently tackling climate change may be the greatest health opportunity. The impacts of climate change on human health are varied and coming more into focus. Direct effects, such as heatwaves, severe weather, drought, and flooding, are apparent and frequently in the news. Indirect or secondary effects, such as changes in ecosystems and the impact on health, are less obvious. It is these changes in ecosystems that may have the greatest impact on allergic and respiratory diseases. This review will explore some ways that climate change, current and predicted, influences respiratory disease. Discussion will focus on changing pollen patterns, damp buildings with increased mold exposure, air pollution, and heat stress.

  7. The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Morton, John F.

    2007-01-01

    Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as “subsistence” or “smallholder” farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised d...

  8. Climate Signals: An On-Line Digital Platform for Mapping Climate Change Impacts in Real Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutting, H.

    2016-12-01

    Climate Signals is an on-line digital platform for cataloging and mapping the impacts of climate change. The CS platform specifies and details the chains of connections between greenhouse gas emissions and individual climate events. Currently in open-beta release, the platform is designed to to engage and serve the general public, news media, and policy-makers, particularly in real-time during extreme climate events. Climate Signals consists of a curated relational database of events and their links to climate change, a mapping engine, and a gallery of climate change monitors offering real-time data. For each event in the database, an infographic engine provides a custom attribution "tree" that illustrates the connections to climate change. In addition, links to key contextual resources are aggregated and curated for each event. All event records are fully annotated with detailed source citations and corresponding hyper links. The system of attribution used to link events to climate change in real-time is detailed here. This open-beta release is offered for public user testing and engagement. Launched in May 2016, the operation of this platform offers lessons for public engagement in climate change impacts.

  9. Air Pollution and Climate Change Health Impact Assessment. The ACHIA Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinney, P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may affect human health via interactions with air pollutants such as ozone and PM 2.5 . These air pollutants are linked to climate because they can be both affected by and have effects on climate. In coming decades, substantial, cost-effective improvements in public health may be achieved with well-planned strategies to mitigate climate impacts while also reducing health effects of ozone and PM 2.5 . Climate mitigation actions affect greenhouse pollutant emissions, including methane and black carbon, but also may affect other key air pollution precursors such as NOx, CO, and SOx. To better understand the potential of such strategies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. The overall objective of this project is to apply state of the art climate, air quality, and health modelling tools to assess future health impacts of ozone and PM 2.5 under different IPCCs scenario of climate change, focusing specifically on pollution-related health co-benefits which could be achieved under alternative climate mitigation pathways in the period 2030-2050. This question will be explored at three spatial scales: global, regional (Europe), and urban (Paris). ACHIA is comprised of an integrated set of four work packages: WP1. Global Climate and Air Pollution Impacts of Alternative Emissions Pathways; WP2. Climate and Air Quality at Regional and Urban Scales: Results for Europe and Paris; WP3. Health Impact Assessment; WP4. Dissemination, Evaluation, Management. ACHIA is designed to create an interdisciplinary approach to the impacts of climate change on health through air quality changes, and to start longer-term collaborations between communities. We expect the project to advance state of art across all WPs, with important implications for research groups around the world. A particular innovation of the project is the multi-scale aspect, i.e., the

  10. Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activity in Languedoc (southern France)

    OpenAIRE

    Azuara , J; Combourieu-Nebout , N; Lebreton , V; Mazier , F; Müller , S D; Dezileau , L ,

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Holocene climate fluctuations and human activity since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediter-ranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to better understand Mediterranean pale-oenvironmental changes over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High-resolution pollen analyses were un-dertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamic...

  11. Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change. Human health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosello, Francesco [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice (Italy); Roson, Roberto [International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Tol, Richard S.J. [Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University, Hamburg (Germany)

    2006-06-25

    We study the economic impacts of climate-change-induced change in human health, viz. cardiovascular and respiratory disorders, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue fever and schistosomiasis. Changes in morbidity and mortality are interpreted as changes in labour productivity and demand for health care, and used to shock the GTAP-E computable general equilibrium model, calibrated for the year 2050. GDP, welfare and investment fall (rise) in regions with net negative (positive) health impacts. Prices, production, and terms of trade show a mixed pattern. Direct cost estimates, common in climate change impact studies, underestimate the true welfare losses. (author)

  12. Climate change impact on landscape fire and forest biomass dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to improve current understandings of fire regimes. The estimation of biomass dynamics at the stand scale is essential for understanding landscape scale biomass dynamics, particularly in order to understand the potential effects of fire regimes. This study presented a synthesis of research results obtained from stand scale studies together with fire behaviour and weather variables. Landscape structure, topography and climate conditions were also considered. Integration of the data was conducted with the SEM-LAND model, a spatially explicit model for landscape dynamics. Equations for the model were presented, including fire initiation and spread, as well as a lightning fire process and simulated fire suppression. Results indicated that fire suppression could alter the distribution of fire sizes. The effect of tree and stand mortality on forest biomass estimates was also discussed along with the impact of climate change on fire regimes. Results indicate that fire activities are likely to increase. Results also demonstrate that fire frequency and size distribution are correlated without human intervention. Theoretical negative exponential forest age distribution is not always supported by empirical observations. Point-based fire frequency and fire cycle definitions are special cases from a computational perspective. Detection of quantitative interrelationships may simplify preconditions for estimating fire regimes, and serve as a means to address incomplete empirical observations. 12 refs., 3 figs

  13. Impact of Experience Corps(®) participation on school climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parisi, Jeanine M; Ramsey, Christine M; Carlson, Michelle C; Xue, Qian-Li; Huang, Jin; Romani, William A; McGill, Sylvia; Seeman, Teresa E; Tanner, Elizabeth K; Barron, Jeremy; Tan, Erwin J; Gruenewald, Tara L; Diibor, Ike; Fried, Linda P; Rebok, George W

    2015-07-01

    We examined the impact of the Experience Corps(®) (EC) program on school climate within Baltimore City public elementary schools. In this program, teams of older adult volunteers were placed in high intensity (>15 h per week), meaningful roles in public elementary schools, to improve the educational outcomes of children as well as the health and well-being of volunteers. During the first year of EC participation, school climate was perceived more favorably among staff and students in EC schools as compared to those in comparison schools. However, with a few notable exceptions, perceived school climate did not differ for staff or students in intervention and comparison schools during the second year of exposure to the EC program. These findings suggest that perceptions of school climate may be altered by introducing a new program into elementary schools; however, research examining how perceptions of school climate are impacted over a longer period is warranted.

  14. Impact of biogenic emissions on feedbacks in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krüger, Olaf

    2017-04-01

    Impact of biogenic emissions on feedbacks in the climate system Bio-geophysical feedback between marine or continental ecosystems and the atmosphere potentially can alter climate change. A prominent feedback loop which is under discussion since 1983 bases on the emission of biologically produced gases - molecular oxygen, sulphur containing compounds and possibly isoprene, supersaturated in oceanic waters - into the marine troposphere. These by-products of phytoplankton metabolism lead to aerosol production and procure sustained influence on climate via modulation of cloud optical properties. In this contribution some findings related to the above mentioned climate processes are presented with special emphasis on marine ecosystems. A comparison of marine and continental ecosystems is made and different processes with major impact on feedbacks in the climate system are discussed.

  15. Impact of Experience Corps® Participation on School Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parisi, Jeanine M.; Ramsey, Christine M.; Carlson, Michelle C.; Xue, Qian-Li; Huang, Jin; Romani, William A.; McGill, Sylvia; Seeman, Teresa E.; Tanner, Elizabeth K.; Barron, Jeremy; Tan, Erwin; Gruenewald, Tara L.; Diibor, Ike; Fried, Linda P.; Rebok, George W.

    2015-01-01

    We examined the impact of the Experience Corps® (EC) program on school climate within Baltimore City public elementary schools. In this program, teams of older adult volunteers were placed in high intensity (>15 hours per week), meaningful roles in public elementary schools, to improve the educational outcomes of children as well as the health and well-being of volunteers. During the first year of EC participation, school climate was perceived more favorably among staff and students in EC schools as compared to those in comparison schools. However, with a few notable exceptions, perceived school climate did not differ for staff or students in intervention and comparison schools during the second year of exposure to the EC program. These findings suggest that perceptions of school climate may be altered by introducing a new program into elementary schools; however, research examining how perceptions of school climate are impacted over a longer period is warranted. PMID:25708453

  16. Human-induced climate change: an interdisciplinary assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Schlesinger, M; Kheshgi, H; Smith, J; de la Chesnaye, F.C; Reilly, J. M; Wilson, T; Kolstad, C

    2007-01-01

    ... of climate sensitivity and change. The next part of the book surveys estimates of the impacts of climate change for different sectors and regions, describes recent studies for individual sectors, and examines how this research might be used in the policy process. The third part examines current topics related to mitigation of greenhouse gase...

  17. Impacts of climate change on resource management in the north

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    A Canada/USA symposium was held to communicate with people of the Arctic regions of North America about current issues in climate and climatic change; to promote dialogue between northern groups about various aspects of the climate problem relevant to northern people; and to discuss and formulate recommendations regarding management of northern resources that might be affected by global warming and associated regional climatic change. Papers were presented on the impacts of climatic change on water resources and hydrology, snow cover and sea ice, forest ecosystems, wildlife and marine resources, offshore petroleum operations, engineered structures, and the socio-economic system in the north. Arctic research programs and international initiatives on climatic change were also described. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 21 papers from this symposium

  18. Vulnerability and adaptation to potential impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omenda, T.O.; Kariuki, J.G.; Mbuthi, P.N.

    1998-01-01

    Climate in Kenya is controlled by the seasonal southward and northward movements of the Inter-Tropical Convergence zone (ITCZ).The effects of ITCZ produces two rainy seasons namely the 'long rains' in April/May and the 'short rains' in October/November. Following the build up of greenhouse gases such as carborn dioxide and methane in the earth's atmosphere, a variety of changes is expected in climatic conditions. The study analyses the sensivity of the lower Tana Basin to climate change while specific objectives include: to determine the effects of climate change on water supply in Tana River Basin; to assess the posible effect of climate change on the ground water resourse in the basin; to make some suggestions on possible adaptation measures that may be adopted to cope with the possible impacts of climate change for the Tana Basin

  19. Impact of Climate Change on Drylands. Climate variability, livelihood strategies and policy options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verhagen, A. [Plant Research International, Wageningen (Netherlands); Dietz, A.J. [Amsterdam Research Institute for Global Issues and Development Studies AGIDS, University of Amsterdam UvA, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2001-09-01

    The findings of the Impact of Climate Change on Drylands (ICCD) project were discussed during a workshop held on 26 and 27 April 2001. The aims of the workshop were to disseminate the findings of the ICCD project, create awareness of the possible effects of climate change and contribute to the dialogue on climate change research in West Africa. Both the workshop and the project were financed by the National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP), Centre Technique de Cooperation de Agricole et Rurale (CTA), Wageningen University (INREF), and Amsterdam Research Institute for Global Issues and Development Studies (AGIDS)

  20. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Hydro-Climate in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the coastal region in the south of Peninsular Malaysia in the 21st century was assessed by means of a regional climate model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution Global Climate Models' future projections covering four emission scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. The analyses were made in terms of rainfall, air temperature, evapotranporation, and soil water storage.

  1. Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2012-01-01

    As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

  2. Climate change as a business and human rights issue?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Kristian Høyer

    a forward-looking and positive human rights duty exemplified by good corporate ecological citizenship (Crane, Matten and Moon 2008) carrying the following duties: a) to mitigate climate change by cutting GHG emissions in the future, b) to promote institutions that prevent climate change to further...

  3. Global water resources affected by human interventionss and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddeland, I.; Heinke, J.; Biemans, H.; Eisner, S.; Florke, M.F.; Hanasaki, N.; Konzmann, M.; Ludwig, F.

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct

  4. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddeland, I.; Heinke, J.; Biemans, H.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Konzmann, M.; Ludwig, F.; Masaki, Y.; Schewe, J.; Stacke, T.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; Wisser, D.

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct

  5. Climate Penalty on Air Quality and Human Health in China and India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, M.; Zhang, S.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Selin, N. E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change, favoring more heat waves and episodes of stagnant air, may deteriorate air quality by increasing ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and high pollution episodes. This effect, termed as "climate penalty", has been quantified and explained by many earlier studies in the U.S. and Europe, but research efforts in Asian countries are limited. We evaluate the impact of climate change on air quality and human health in China and India using a modeling framework that links the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model to the Community Atmosphere Model (MIT IGSM-CAM). Future climate fields are projected under three climate scenarios including a no-policy reference scenario and two climate stabilization scenarios with 2100 total radiative forcing targets of 9.7, 4.5 and 3.7 W m-2, respectively. Each climate scenario is run for five representations of climate variability to account for the role of natural variability. Thirty-year chemical transport simulations are conducted in 1981-2010 and 2086-2115 under the three climate scenarios with fixed anthropogenic emissions at year 2000 levels. We find that 2000—2100 climate change under the no-policy reference scenario would increase ozone concentrations in eastern China and northern India by up to 5 ppb through enhancing biogenic emissions and ozone production efficiency. Ozone extreme episodes also become more frequent in these regions, while climate policies can offset most of the increase in ozone episodes. Climate change between 2000 and 2100 would slightly increase anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in northern China and Sichuan province, but significantly reduce anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in southern China and northern India, primarily due to different chemical responses of sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols to climate change in these regions. Our study also suggests that the mitigation costs of climate policies can be partially offset by health

  6. The impact of weather on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulman, F G

    1984-01-01

    The impact of weather on human health is a well-known fact, yet, alas, neglected in the past. Bioclimatology, a vast field of medical knowledge, has only been developed in the past few years. It shows that the air we breathe has a profound influence on our well-being. Electrical charges of the air, such as ions, spherics and electrofields can affect our endocrine, vegetative and autonomous nerve system. It may even be responsible for post-operative thromboembolism. The present article describes weather reactions, electric radiations, climate rhythm, medical aspects of weather changes, and their effect on health and disease. Special devotion is also given to the manifestations of evil winds.

  7. Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toon, O. B.; Robock, A.; Mills, M. J.; Xia, L.

    2013-05-01

    A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere.This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface.Simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade.The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation.The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia, the U.S., and the rest of

  8. Ocean Biological Pump Sensitivities and Implications for Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanou, Anastasia

    2013-01-01

    The ocean is one of the principal reservoirs of CO2, a greenhouse gas, and therefore plays a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Currently, the ocean sequesters about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, mitigating the human impact on climate. At the same time, the deeper ocean represents the largest carbon pool in the Earth System and processes that describe the transfer of carbon from the surface of the ocean to depth are intimately linked to the effectiveness of carbon sequestration.The ocean biological pump (OBP), which involves several biogeochemical processes, is a major pathway for transfer of carbon from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior. About 75 of the carbon vertical gradient is due to the carbon pump with only 25 attributed to the solubility pump. However, the relative importance and role of the two pumps is poorly constrained. OBP is further divided to the organic carbon pump (soft tissue pump) and the carbonate pump, with the former exporting about 10 times more carbon than the latter through processes like remineralization.Major uncertainties about OBP, and hence in the carbon uptake and sequestration, stem from uncertainties in processes involved in OBP such as particulate organicinorganic carbon sinkingsettling, remineralization, microbial degradation of DOC and uptakegrowth rate changes of the ocean biology. The deep ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2 in scales of hundreds to thousands of years, but how the export efficiency (i.e. the fraction of total carbon fixation at the surface that is transported at depth) is affected by climate change remains largely undetermined. These processes affect the ocean chemistry (alkalinity, pH, DIC, particulate and dissolved organic carbon) as well as the ecology (biodiversity, functional groups and their interactions) in the ocean. It is important to have a rigorous, quantitative understanding of the uncertainties involved in the observational measurements, the models and the

  9. Little auks buffer the impact of current Arctic climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grémillet, David; Welcker, Jorg; Karnovsky, Nina J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate models predict a multi-degree warming of the North Atlantic in the 21st century. A research priority is to understand the impact of such changes upon marine organisms. With 40-80 million individuals, planktivorous little auks (Alle alle) are an essential component of pelagic food webs...... in this region that are potentially highly susceptible to climatic effects. Using an integrative study of their behaviour, physiology and fitness at three study sites, we evaluated the impact of ocean warming on little auks across the Greenland Sea in 2005-2007. Contrary to our hypothesis, the birds responded...... to a wide range of sea surface temperatures via plasticity of their foraging behaviour, allowing them to maintain their fitness levels unchanged. Predicted effects of climate change are significantly attenuated by such plasticity, confounding attempts to forecast future impacts of climate change by envelope...

  10. Preferences for distributional impacts of climate policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenningsen, Lea Skræp; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    for such preferences is lacking. We design a discrete choice experiment that varies how climate policies affect the income of people living in the future in three geographical regions. The experiment is implemented on a representative sample of the Danish population and preferences are modelled in a latent class model...... expresses some form of distributional preferences, but shows positive preferences for costs, suggesting that responses could be influenced by strategic behaviour and over-signalling of commitment. Our results provide support for the inclusion of social preferences regarding distributional effects of climate...

  11. Impact of Climate on Tourist Demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lise, W.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2001-06-01

    Tourism, being volatile and situation-specific, is responsive to climate change. A cross section analysis is conducted on destinations of OECD tourists and a factor and regression analysis on holiday activities of Dutch tourists, to find optimal temperatures at travel destination for different tourists and different tourist activities. Globally, OECD tourists prefer a temperature of 21C (average of the hottest month of the year) at their choice of holiday destination. This indicates that, under a scenario of gradual warming, tourists would spend their holidays in different places than they currently do. The factor and regression analysis suggests that preferences for climates at tourist destinations differ among age and income groups

  12. Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambarelli, G.; Goria, A.

    2004-07-01

    The paper deals with the social and economic dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation in Italy. The ultimate aim of the paper is to provide policy makers and experts with a conceptual framework, as well as methodological and operational tools for dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation from an economic perspective. In order to do so, first a conceptual and theoretical framework of the economic assessment of climate change impacts is presented and the state of the art about impact assessment studies is briefly analysed. Then, the Italian case is taken into account, by underlying the main impacts and adaptation challenges that are likely to be implied by climate change in the next decades. The analysis of the Italian case is particularly addressed through the description of the methodology and results of two case studies. The first one, dealing mainly with impact assessment, is carried out at the national level and is part of a EC funded project on Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). The second one is carried out at the local level and focuses on sea level rise impacts and adaptation in a plane south of Rome. The two case studies allow to propose simple and flexible methodologies for the economic impact assessment and the economic valuation of adaptation strategies

  13. Climate change effects on human health in a gender perspective: some trends in Arctic research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natalia, Kukarenko

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and environmental pollution have become pressing concerns for the peoples in the Arctic region. Some researchers link climate change, transformations of living conditions and human health. A number of studies have also provided data on differentiating effects of climate change on women's and men's well-being and health. To show how the issues of climate and environment change, human health and gender are addressed in current research in the Arctic. The main purpose of this article is not to give a full review but to draw attention to the gaps in knowledge and challenges in the Arctic research trends on climate change, human health and gender. A broad literature search was undertaken using a variety of sources from natural, medical, social science and humanities. The focus was on the keywords. Despite the evidence provided by many researchers on differentiating effects of climate change on well-being and health of women and men, gender perspective remains of marginal interest in climate change, environmental and health studies. At the same time, social sciences and humanities, and gender studies in particular, show little interest towards climate change impacts on human health in the Arctic. As a result, we still observe the division of labour between disciplines, the disciplinary-bound pictures of human development in the Arctic and terminology confusion. Efforts to bring in a gender perspective in the Arctic research will be successful only when different disciplines would work together. Multidisciplinary research is a way to challenge academic/disciplinary homogeneity and their boundaries, to take advantage of the diversity of approaches and methods in production of new integrated knowledge. Cooperation and dialogue across disciplines will help to develop adequate indicators for monitoring human health and elaborating efficient policies and strategies to the benefit of both women and men in the Arctic. Global Health Action 2011. © 2011 Kukarenko

  14. Inconsistencies at the interface of climate impact studies and global climate research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, H. von.

    1994-01-01

    Most climate impacts studies, whether they deal with, for instance, terristric or marine ecosystems, coastal morphodynamics, storm surges and damages, or socio-economic aspects, utilize ''scenarios'' of possible future climate. Such scenarios are always based on the output of complex mathematical climate models, whenever they are in any sense detailed. Unfortunately, the user community of such scenarios usually is not well informed about the limitations and potentials of such models. On the other hand, the climate modeller community is not sufficiently aware of the demands on the side of the ''users''. The state of the art of climate models is revieved and the principal limitations concerning the spatial/time resolution and the accuracy of simulated data are discussed. The need for a ''downscaling strategy'' on the climate modeller side and for an ''upscaling'' strategy on the user side is demonstrated. Examples for successful exercieses in downscaling seasonal mean precipitation and daily rainfall sequences are shown. (orig.)

  15. Projected Impact of Urban Growth on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Federico; Murgante, Beniamino; Martellozzo, Federico

    2017-04-01

    Human activities on land use such as intensive agricultural techniques and urbanization are generating a number of social and economic benefit for contemporary society. Besides, these phenomena are one of the most significant causes of Land Degradation. Firstly, intensive agriculture is on the one hand creating an advantage in the short-period in terms of food production, while on the other is producing serious long-period problems in terms of loss of ecosystem services, including some important for agriculture itself. Secondly, the rapid growth of urban areas in recent decades is generating deep environmental issues. The World Urbanization Prospect by the United Nations (UN) shows that more than half of the world's population today (54%) lives in urban areas. This figure was only 30% in 1950, and estimates are that it will rise to 66% by 2050. Urban growth is responsible for the increase of air pollution, waste production, energy consumption, and land take. Moreover, the expansion of urban areas is making the problem of urban heat islands more relevant, and studies are proving how land cover changes are among the main factors that affect local microclimates. Consequently, territorial planning will play an important role in the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change, as land cover has a significant impact on the energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. This study couples urban growth simulation models based on cellular automata to multiple linear regression techniques that are used to formulate equations for predicting the effects of simulated urban development on soil surface temperature. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Italian national territory, considering various alternative scenarios of land use changes and of their impact on local surface temperatures. The results show that the areas with the greatest urban pressure might be subject to significant climatic changes due to the increased impact of urban heat

  16. Impact of climate on tourist demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lise, W.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2002-01-01

    Tourism, being volatile and situation-specific, is responsive to climate change. A cross-section analysis is conducted on destinations of OECD tourists and a factor and regression analysis on holiday activities of Dutch tourists, to find optimal temperatures at travel destination for different

  17. Climate impact of transportation A model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girod, B.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Grahn, M.; Kitous, A.; Kim, S.H.; Kyle, P.

    2013-01-01

    Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global

  18. A paradigm shift toward a consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Fant, C.; Chen, H.; Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Ejaz, Q.; Couzo, E. A.; Prinn, R. G.; Haigh, M.

    2017-12-01

    Estimates of physical and economic impacts of future climate change are subject to substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches of assessing climate impacts by evaluating a damage function or by multi-model comparisons based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we focus here on integrating impacts into a self-consistent coupled human and Earth system modeling framework that includes modules that represent multiple physical impacts. In a sample application we show that this framework is capable of investigating the physical impacts of climate change and socio-economic stressors. The projected climate impacts vary dramatically across the globe in a set of scenarios with global mean warming ranging between 2.4°C and 3.6°C above pre-industrial by 2100. Unabated emissions lead to substantial sea level rise, acidification that impacts the base of the oceanic food chain, air pollution that exceeds health standards by tenfold, water stress that impacts an additional 1 to 2 billion people globally and agricultural productivity that decreases substantially in many parts of the world. We compare the outcomes from these forward-looking scenarios against the common goal described by the target-driven scenario of 2°C, which results in much smaller impacts. It is challenging for large internationally coordinated exercises to respond quickly to new policy targets. We propose that a paradigm shift toward a self-consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts is needed to produce information relevant to evolving global climate policy and mitigation strategies in a timely way.

  19. Projecting Poverty at the Household Scale to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Poor People

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, S.; Rozenberg, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper quantifies the potential impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and 2050, in 92 countries covering 90% of the developing world population. It accounts for the deep uncertainties that characterize future socio-economic evolutions and the lack of data regarding the condition and livelihood of poor people. It also considers many impacts of climate change, another source of uncertainty. We use a micro-simulation model based on household surveys and explore a wide range of uncertainties on future structural change, productivity growth or demographic changes. This results, for each country, in the creation of several hundred scenarios for future income growth and income distribution. We then explore the resulting space of possible futures and use scenario discovery techniques to identify the main drivers of inequalities and poverty reduction. We find that redistribution and structural change are powerful drivers of poverty and inequality reduction, except in low-income countries. In the poorest countries in Africa, reducing poverty cannot rely on redistribution but requires low population growth and productivity growth in agriculture. Once we have explored the space of possible outcomes for poverty and inequalities, we choose two representative scenarios of the best and worst cases and model the impacts of climate change in each of these two scenarios. Climate change impacts are modeled through 4 channels. First, climate change has an impact on labor productivity growth for people who work outside because of higher temperatures. Second, climate change has an impact on human capital because of more severe stunting in some places. Third, climate change has an impact on physical capital via more frequent natural disasters. Fourth, climate change has an impact on consumption because of changes in food prices. Impacts are very heterogeneous across countries and are mostly concentrated in African and South-East Asian countries. For high radiative forcing (RCP8

  20. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2011-12-01

    The agricultural sector in Nigeria is particularly important for the country's food security, natural resources, and growth agenda. The cultivable areas comprise more than 70% of the total area; however, the cultivated area is about the 35% of the total area. The most important components in the food basket of the nation are cereals and tubers, which include rice, maize, corn, millet, sorghum, yam, and cassava. These crops represent about 80% of the total agricultural product in Nigeria (from NPAFS). The major crops grown in the country can be divided into food crops (produced for consumption) and export products. Despite the importance of the export crops, the primary policy of agriculture is to make Nigeria self-sufficient in its food and fiber requirements. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture and water resources are expected to be adverse and extensive in these area. This implies the need for actions and measures to adapt to climate change impacts, and especially as they affect agriculture, the primary sector for Nigerian economy. In the framework of the Project Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria (founded by World Bank Contract n.7157826), a study was made to assess the potential impact of climate change on the main crops that characterize Nigerian agriculture. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that simulate physiological processes of crop growth, development and production by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were calibrated to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output was "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models to have

  1. Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

    2017-10-01

    Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

  2. Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Felicity; Sabel, Clive E.; Morton, Katherine; Hiscock, Rosemary; Depledge, Michael H.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Incorporates wellbeing into understandings of climate change impacts on health. • Considers a range of secondary impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing. • Examines co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for health and wellbeing. • Emphasises the spatially and socially differentiated repercussions of adaptation and mitigation measures. - Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors

  3. Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Fokko Hattermann

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of our study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the large river basins in Germany (Rhine, Elbe, Danube, Weser and Ems and thereby giving the range of impact uncertainty created by the most recent regional climate projections. The study shows mainly results for the A1B SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario scenario by comparing the reference period 1981–2010 and the scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2061–2090 and using climate projections of a combination of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs and 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs as climate driver. The outcome is compared against impacts driven by a more recent RCP (Representative Emission Pathways scenario by using data of a statistical RCM. The results indicate that more robust conclusions can be drawn for some river basins, especially the Rhine and Danube basins, while diversity of results leads to higher uncertainty in the other river basins. The results also show that hydrology is very sensitive to changes in climate and effects of a general increase in precipitation can even be over-compensated by an increase in evapotranspiration. The decrease of runoff in late summer shown in most results can be an indicator for more pronounced droughts under scenario conditions.

  4. Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Modulate Irrigation's Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krakauer, Nir Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenko, Larissa

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean- atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and mid-latitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.

  5. Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia, Raquel A.

    Evidence for shifts in the phenologies and distributions of species over recent decades has often been attributed to climate change. The prospect of greater and faster changes in climate during the 21st century has spurred a stream of studies anticipating future biodiversity impacts. Yet, uncerta......Evidence for shifts in the phenologies and distributions of species over recent decades has often been attributed to climate change. The prospect of greater and faster changes in climate during the 21st century has spurred a stream of studies anticipating future biodiversity impacts. Yet......, uncertainty is inherent to both projected climate changes and their effects on biodiversity, and needs to be understood before projections can be used. This thesis seeks to elucidate some of the uncertainties clouding assessments of biodiversity impacts from climate change, and explores ways to address them...... models, are shown to be affected by multiple uncertainties. Different model algorithms produce different outputs, as do alternative future climate models and scenarios of future emissions of greenhouse gases. Another uncertainty arises due to omission of species with small sample sizes, which...

  6. Tracking climate impacts on the migratory monarch butterfly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Ries, Leslie; Reeves, Rick; Regetz, James; Oberhauser, Karen S.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate on migratory species is complicated by the fact that these species travel through several climates that may be changing in diverse ways throughout their complete migratory cycle. Most studies are not designed to tease out the direct and indirect effects of climate at various stages along the migration route. We assess the impacts of spring and summer climate conditions on breeding monarch butterflies, a species that completes its annual migration cycle over several generations. No single, broad-scale climate metric can explain summer breeding phenology or the substantial year-to-year fluctuations observed in population abundances. As such, we built a Poisson regression model to help explain annual arrival times and abundances in the Midwestern United States. We incorporated the climate conditions experienced both during a spring migration/breeding phase in Texas as well as during subsequent arrival and breeding during the main recruitment period in Ohio. Using data from a state-wide butterfly monitoring network in Ohio, our results suggest that climate acts in conflicting ways during the spring and summer seasons. High spring precipitation in Texas is associated with the largest annual population growth in Ohio and the earliest arrival to the summer breeding ground, as are intermediate spring temperatures in Texas. On the other hand, the timing of monarch arrivals to the summer breeding grounds is not affected by climate conditions within Ohio. Once in Ohio for summer breeding, precipitation has minimal impacts on overall abundances, whereas warmer summer temperatures are generally associated with the highest expected abundances, yet this effect is mitigated by the average seasonal temperature of each location in that the warmest sites receive no benefit of above average summer temperatures. Our results highlight the complex relationship between climate and performance for a migrating species and suggest that attempts to

  7. Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Trnka, Miroslav; Semenov, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, SEP (2015), s. 3-5 ISSN 0936-577X Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Crop production Upscaling * Climate change impact and adaptation assessments * Upscaling * Model ensembles Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.690, year: 2015

  8. Attributing Climate Conditions for Stable Malaria Transmission to Human Activity in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldrake, L.; Mitchell, D.; Allen, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Temperature and precipitation limit areas of stable malaria transmission, but the effects of climate change on the disease remain controversial. Previously, studies have not separated the influence of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability, despite being an essential step in the attribution of climate change impacts. Ensembles of 2900 simulations of regional climate in sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2013, one representing realistic conditions and the other how climate might have been in the absence of human influence, were used to force a P.falciparium climate suitability model developed by the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project. Strongest signals were detected in areas of unstable transmission, indicating their heightened sensitivity to climatic factors. Evidently, impacts of human-induced climate change were unevenly distributed: the probability of conditions being suitable for stable malaria transmission were substantially reduced (increased) in the Sahel (Greater Horn of Africa (GHOA), particularly in the Ethiopian and Kenyan highlands). The length of the transmission season was correspondingly shortened in the Sahel and extended in the GHOA, by 1 to 2 months, including in Kericho (Kenya), where the role of climate change in driving recent malaria occurrence is hotly contested. Human-induced warming was primarily responsible for positive anomalies in the GHOA, while reduced rainfall caused negative anomalies in the Sahel. The latter was associated with anthropogenic impacts on the West African Monsoon, but uncertainty in the RCM's ability to reproduce precipitation trends in the region weakens confidence in the result. That said, outputs correspond well with broad-scale changes in observed endemicity, implying a potentially important contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the malaria burden during the past century. Results support the health-framing of climate risk and help indicate hotspots of climate vulnerability, providing

  9. Climate change impacts on crop yield: evidence from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Taoyuan; Cherry, Todd L; Glomrød, Solveig; Zhang, Tianyi

    2014-11-15

    When estimating climate change impact on crop yield, a typical assumption is constant elasticity of yield with respect to a climate variable even though the elasticity may be inconstant. After estimating both constant and inconstant elasticities with respect to temperature and precipitation based on provincial panel data in China 1980-2008, our results show that during that period, the temperature change contributes positively to total yield growth by 1.3% and 0.4% for wheat and rice, respectively, but negatively by 12% for maize. The impacts of precipitation change are marginal. We also compare our estimates with other studies and highlight the implications of the inconstant elasticities for crop yield, harvest and food security. We conclude that climate change impact on crop yield would not be an issue in China if positive impacts of other socio-economic factors continue in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. The Variable Climate Impact of Volcanic Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graf, H.

    2011-12-01

    The main effect of big volcanic eruptions in the climate system is due to their efficient transport of condensable gases and their precursors into the stratosphere. There the formation of aerosols leads to effects on atmospheric radiation transfer inducing a reduction of incoming solar radiation by reflection (i.e. cooling of the Earth surface) and absorption of near infrared radiation (i.e. heating) in the aerosol laden layers. In the talk processes determining the climate effect of an eruption will be illustrated by examples, mainly from numerical modelling. The amount of gases released from a magma during an eruption and the efficiency of their transport into very high altitudes depends on the geological setting (magma type) and eruption style. While mid-sized eruption plumes of Plinian style quickly can develop buoyancy by entrainment of ambient air, very large eruptions with high magma flux rates often tend to collapsing plumes and co-ignimbrite style. These cover much bigger areas and are less efficient in entraining ambient air. Vertical transport in these plumes is chaotic and less efficient, leading to lower neutral buoyancy height and less gas and particles reaching high stratospheric altitudes. Explosive energy and amount of released condensable gases are not the only determinants for the climatic effect of an eruption. The effect on shortwave radiation is not linear with the amount of aerosols formed since according to the Lambert-Beer Law atmospheric optical depth reaches a saturation limit with increased absorber concentration. In addition, if more condensable gas is available for aerosol growth, particles become larger and this affects their optical properties to less reflection and more absorption. Larger particles settle out faster, thus reducing the life time of the aerosol disturbance. Especially for big tropical eruptions the strong heating of the stratosphere in low latitudes leads to changes in atmospheric wave propagation by strengthened

  11. Economy-Wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosello, F.; Roson, R.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2006-01-01

    We study the economic impacts of climate-change-induced change in human health, viz. cardiovascular and respiratory disorders, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue fever and schistosomiasis. Changes in morbidity and mortality are interpreted as changes in labour productivity and demand for health care, and

  12. Impact of global climate change on regional air quality: Introduction to the thematic issue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vautard, R.; Hauglustaine, D.

    2007-01-01

    Despite the major international efforts devoted to the understanding and to the future estimate of global climate change and its impact on regional scale processes, the evolution of the atmospheric composition in a changing climate is far to be understood. In particular, the future evolution of the concentration of near-surface pollutants determining air quality at a scale affecting human health and ecosystems is a subject of intense scientific research. This thematic issue reviews the current scientific knowledge of the consequences of global climate change on regional air quality and its related impact on the biosphere and on human mortality. This article provides a presentation of the key issues, summarizes the current knowledge, and introduces the thematic issue. (authors)

  13. Nitrogen use efficiency in the US economy: Towards mitigation of climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houlton, B. Z.; Boyer, E. W.; Finzi, A. C.; Galloway, J. N.; Leach, A.; Liptzin, D.; Melillo, J. M.; Rosenstock, T.; Sobota, D. J.; Townsend, A. R.

    2011-12-01

    Nitrogen (N) interacts strongly with climate change in determining the severity and extent of many human health and environmental issues, such as eutrophication, poor air quality, and the maintenance of a secure food system. We were motivated by such N-climate interactions and their environmental impacts as part of a broader assessment of N in the continental United States. We here seek to identify and quantify inefficiencies associated with intentional N creation (i.e., creating synthetic N fertilizers and cultivating N-fixing legumes) among the major N-dependent sectors of the United States economy. We define efficiency of N use as the proportion N directly incorporated into food, fiber, biofuel, and industrial goods from the pool of intentionally created N. We are interested in whether reductions in N use could be achieved without changing the current functioning of the major N-dependent economic sectors. Our analysis points to substantial inefficiencies in N use at the national scale. A large percentage of the N applied as synthetic fertilizer and fixed by legumes annually fails to enter the United States food supply. Much of the unincorporated N enters air, land and water, where it can impact human health and ecosystems. The climate change forcing of N is uncertain, though it appears that the combined effects of intentionally and unintentionally created N on climate is roughly neutral in the United States (i.e., net effect of N-enhanced C storage, nitrous oxide emissions, N-based aerosols, and tropospheric ozone on climate forcing). Thus, it is reasonable to expect that improved efficiencies in N use would have minimal negative side effects on the United States economy, human health and the environment. We suggest that policies aimed at improving N-use efficiencies are an alternative to direct climate mitigation strategies in offsetting several impacts of climate change on human health and ecosystem functioning.

  14. Human activity and climate variability project - annual report 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chambers, S.; Harle, K.J.; Sharmeen, S.; Zahorowski, W.; Cohen, D.; Heijnis, H.; Henderson-Sellers, A

    2002-01-01

    Work is well underway on identifying the spatial and temporal extent, direction and range of trace element transport across Tasmania through analysis of lake sediments; A follow up investigation of sedimentation and pollution in the Nattai River catchment following the devastating 2001 bushfires in the region has been completed; The project has been extended to include investigations of evidence of human impacts in the highly sensitive and ecologically important Great Lakes of coastal NSW. This has involved the expansion of our collaboration to include Geoscience Australia; Contributions have been made to the IGBP HITE project. Further contributions will be made as the evidence gathered is drawn together and interpreted; Over the coming year, focus will be placed on completion of the investigation of the extent of aerial transport of trace elements across Tasmania over the last 200 years as well as evidence for human activity and impacts on the Great Lakes region of NSW. Further investigation of potential climate signals from sites in northern Australia will also be made. The first 12 months of data for all ACE-Asia radon and fine particle sites is now available with preliminary analyses performed; The seasonal variability of background radon concentration at each of the radon monitoring sites has been characterised for the available data; Major components related to industrial pollution and soil sources in China have been identified and quantified; Regional and seasonal variations and trends in aerosol constituents have been measured and compared across more than 2.8Mk 2 of sampling area; The Hok Tsui and Kosan detectors were visited for general maintenance and recalibration; A grant application to the APN has been submitted in support of regional inventory analyses based on radon time series; Progress on the processing and interpretation of radon data was presented at the Cape Grim Science Meeting (6-7 February 2002) and the 7th Biennial SPERA Conference on

  15. Human activity and climate variability project - annual report 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambers, S; Harle, K J; Sharmeen, S; Zahorowski, W; Cohen, D; Heijnis, H; Henderson-Sellers, A [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Menai, NSW (Australia)

    2002-07-01

    Work is well underway on identifying the spatial and temporal extent, direction and range of trace element transport across Tasmania through analysis of lake sediments; A follow up investigation of sedimentation and pollution in the Nattai River catchment following the devastating 2001 bushfires in the region has been completed; The project has been extended to include investigations of evidence of human impacts in the highly sensitive and ecologically important Great Lakes of coastal NSW. This has involved the expansion of our collaboration to include Geoscience Australia; Contributions have been made to the IGBP HITE project. Further contributions will be made as the evidence gathered is drawn together and interpreted; Over the coming year, focus will be placed on completion of the investigation of the extent of aerial transport of trace elements across Tasmania over the last 200 years as well as evidence for human activity and impacts on the Great Lakes region of NSW. Further investigation of potential climate signals from sites in northern Australia will also be made. The first 12 months of data for all ACE-Asia radon and fine particle sites is now available with preliminary analyses performed; The seasonal variability of background radon concentration at each of the radon monitoring sites has been characterised for the available data; Major components related to industrial pollution and soil sources in China have been identified and quantified; Regional and seasonal variations and trends in aerosol constituents have been measured and compared across more than 2.8Mk{sup 2} of sampling area; The Hok Tsui and Kosan detectors were visited for general maintenance and recalibration; A grant application to the APN has been submitted in support of regional inventory analyses based on radon time series; Progress on the processing and interpretation of radon data was presented at the Cape Grim Science Meeting (6-7 February 2002) and the 7th Biennial SPERA Conference on

  16. Climate change, aeroallergens, natural particulates, and human health in Australia: state of the science and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beggs, Paul John; Bennett, Charmian Margaret

    2011-03-01

    The objective of this article is to systematically review and assess what is known about the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and other naturally derived particulates, and the associated human health impacts, and to examine responses to these in Australia, focusing on adaptation. Prior research was searched using several general and discipline-specific research databases. The review concludes that whereas there is little original research on the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and other naturally derived particulates in Australia, or the human health consequences of these, research from overseas suggests that these impacts may be adverse and of considerable magnitude. More research is required to assess the impacts of climate change on these airborne particles and associated diseases in Australia and other parts of the Asia-Pacific. There are important policy implications of this review. There is a need for enhanced monitoring of the atmospheric environment and associated health conditions in Australia. Education about climate change and human health in general, and air quality and related diseases specifically, is required for the community, health professionals, and others. Improvements are needed in the preparedness of infrastructure, such as health care facilities and early warning systems, particularly for aeroallergens, and all of these adaptive policy responses require further research.

  17. Toward Collective Impact for Climate Resilience: Maximizing Climate Change Education for Preparedness, Adaptation, and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F., III; McCaffrey, M.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing the capacity of society to make informed climate decisions based on scientific evidence is imperative. While a wide range of education programs and communication efforts to improve understanding and facilitate responsible effective decision-making have been developed in recent years, these efforts have been largely disconnected. The interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary nature of the problems and potential responses to climate change requires a broad range of expertise and a strategy that overcomes the inherent limitations of isolated programs and efforts. To extend the reach and impact of climate change education and engagement efforts, it is necessary to have a coordination that results in greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network has facilitated a series of discussions at six professional meetings from late 2012 through spring 2014 to begin to develop and define the elements of collective impact on climate change education and engagement. These discussions have focused on getting input from the community on a common agenda and what a backbone support organization could do to help extend their reach and impact and enable a longer-term sustainability. These discussions will continue at future meetings, with the focus shifting to developing a common agenda and shared metrics. In this presentation we will summarize the outcomes of these discussions thus far, especially with respect to what activities a backbone support organization might provide to help increase the collective impact of climate change education effort and invite others to join the development of public-private partnership to improve the nations climate literacy. The cumulative input into this evolving discussion on collective

  18. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hagemann

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models