WorldWideScience

Sample records for human ecosystem model

  1. Interior Design Research: A Human Ecosystem Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerin, Denise A.

    1992-01-01

    The interior ecosystems model illustrates effects on the human organism of the interaction of the natural, behavioral, and built environment. Examples of interior lighting and household energy consumption show the model's flexibility for organizing study variables in interior design research. (SK)

  2. Interior Design Research: A Human Ecosystem Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerin, Denise A.

    1992-01-01

    The interior ecosystems model illustrates effects on the human organism of the interaction of the natural, behavioral, and built environment. Examples of interior lighting and household energy consumption show the model's flexibility for organizing study variables in interior design research. (SK)

  3. Integrated modelling for assessing the risk of groundwater contaminants to human health and surface water ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKnight, Ursula S.; Rasmussen, Jes; Funder, Simon G.;

    2010-01-01

    for evaluating the impact of a TCE groundwater plume, located in an area with protected drinking water interests, to human health and surface water ecosystems. This is accomplished by coupling the system dynamicsbased decision support system CARO-Plus to the aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX via an analytical...

  4. Modelling of spatially complex human-ecosystem, rural-urban and rich-poor interactions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naude, AH

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available ., Forsyth, G., Mans, G. and Hugo, W. (2008) Modeling of spatially complex human-ecosystem, rural-urban snd rich-poor interactions. Paper submitted to International Conference: “Studying, Modelling and Sense Making of Planet Earth”; 1 – 6 June, 2008... human-ecosystem, rural-urban snd rich-poor interactions. Paper submitted to International Conference: “Studying, Modelling and Sense Making of Planet Earth”; 1 – 6 June, 2008, Department of Geography, University of the Aegean. 2 Initially, most...

  5. Human Resource Ecosystem and its evolutionary rules

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The Paper,based on the concept and the elements of human resource ecosystem(HR Ecosystem),studies the function and structure of HR Ecosystem,introduces the entropy theory to define the content of entropy of HR Ecosystem,constructs the corresponding distinctive model to distinguish the direction of the evolution of HR Ecosystem and the evolutionary entropy model, and applies the models to demonstrate the evolutionary rules of HR Ecosystem.The study shows that the entropy theory can be well applied to the analysis on HR Ecosystem and that it opens up a new field in the research of human resource management and provides a new effective technical method.

  6. Integrated modelling for assessing the risk of TCE groundwater contamination to human and surface water ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKnight, Ursula S.; Funder, Simon Goltermann; Finkel, Michael;

    2009-01-01

    management tools designed to work with sparse data sets from preliminary site assessments are needed which can explicitly link contaminant point sources with groundwater, surface water and ecological impacts. Here, a novel integrated modelling approach was employed for evaluating the impact of a TCE...... groundwater plume, located in an area with protected drinking water interests, to human health and surface water ecosystems. This is accomplished by coupling the system dynamics-based decision support system CARO-Plus to the aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX via an analytical volatilisation model for the stream...... of “effective” parameters in groundwater transport modelling. The initial modelling results indicate that TCE contaminant plumes with μgL-1 concentrations entering surface water systems do not pose a significant risk to either human or ecological receptors. The current work will be extended to additional...

  7. Integrated modelling for assessing the risk of groundwater contaminants to human health and surface water ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKnight, Ursula S.; Rasmussen, Jes; Funder, Simon G.

    2010-01-01

    for evaluating the impact of a TCE groundwater plume, located in an area with protected drinking water interests, to human health and surface water ecosystems. This is accomplished by coupling the system dynamicsbased decision support system CARO-Plus to the aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX via an analytical......The practical implementation of the European Water Framework Directive has resulted in an increased focus on the groundwater-surface water interaction zone. A gap exists with respect to preliminary assessment methodologies that are capable of evaluating and prioritising point sources...... volatilisation model for the stream. The model is tested on a Danish case study involving a 750 m long TCE groundwater plume discharging into a stream. The initial modelling results indicate that TCE contaminant plumes with μgL-1 concentrations entering surface water systems do not pose a significant risk...

  8. Open Source Software for Mapping Human Impacts on Marine Ecosystems with an Additive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andy Stock

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an easy-to-use open source software tool implementing a commonly used additive model (Halpern et al., 'Science', 2008 for mapping human impacts on marine ecosystems. The tool has been used to map the potential for cumulative human impacts in Arctic marine waters and can support future human impact mapping projects by 1 making the model easier to use; 2 making updates of model results straightforward when better input data become available; 3 storing input data and information about processing steps in a defined format and thus facilitating data sharing and reproduction of modeling results; 4 supporting basic visualization of model inputs and outputs without the need for advanced technical skills. The tool, called EcoImpactMapper, was implemented in Java and is thus platform-independent. A tutorial, example data, the tool and the source code are available online.

  9. An integrated model for assessing the risk of TCE groundwater contamination to human receptors and surface water ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKnight, Ursula S.; Funder, S.G.; Rasmussen, J.J.;

    2010-01-01

    The practical implementation of the European Water Framework Directive has resulted in an increased focus on the hyporheic zone. In this paper, an integrated model was developed for evaluating the impact of point sources in groundwater on human health and surface water ecosystems. This was accomp...

  10. Qualitative models to predict impacts of human interventions in a wetland ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Loiselle

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available The large shallow wetlands that dominate much of the South American continent are rich in biodiversity and complexity. Many of these undamaged ecosystems are presently being examined for their potential economic utility, putting pressure on local authorities and the conservation community to find ways of correctly utilising the available natural resources without compromising the ecosystem functioning and overall integrity. Contrary to many northern hemisphere ecosystems, there have been little long term ecological studies of these systems, leading to a lack of quantitative data on which to construct ecological or resource use models. As a result, decision makers, even well meaning ones, have difficulty in determining if particular economic activities can potentially cause significant damage to the ecosystem and how one should go about monitoring the impacts of such activities. While the direct impact of many activities is often known, the secondary indirect impacts are usually less clear and can depend on local ecological conditions.

    The use of qualitative models is a helpful tool to highlight potential feedback mechanisms and secondary effects of management action on ecosystem integrity. The harvesting of a single, apparently abundant, species can have indirect secondary effects on key trophic and abiotic compartments. In this paper, loop model analysis is used to qualitatively examine secondary effects of potential economic activities in a large wetland area in northeast Argentina, the Esteros del Ibera. Based on interaction with local actors together with observed ecological information, loop models were constructed to reflect relationships between biotic and abiotic compartments. A series of analyses were made to study the effect of different economic scenarios on key ecosystem compartments. Important impacts on key biotic compartments (phytoplankton, zooplankton, ichthyofauna, aquatic macrophytes and on the abiotic environment

  11. An integrated model for assessing the risk of TCE groundwater contamination to human receptors and surface water ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKnight, Ursula S.; Funder, S.G.; Rasmussen, J.J.;

    2010-01-01

      The practical implementation of the European Water Framework Directive has resulted in an increased focus on the hyporheic zone. In this paper, an integrated model was developed for evaluating the impact of point sources in groundwater on human health and surface water ecosystems....... This was accomplished by coupling the system dynamics-based decision support system CARO-PLUS to the aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX using an analytical volatilization model for the stream. The model was applied to a case study where a TCE contaminated groundwater plume is discharging to a stream. The TCE source...... will not be depleted for many decades, however measured and predicted TCE concentrations in surface water were found to be below human health risk management targets. Volatilization rapidly attenuates TCE concentrations in surface water. Thus, only a 300 m stream reach fails to meet surface water quality criteria...

  12. An integrated model for assessing the risk of TCE groundwater contamination to human receptors and surface water ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKnight, Ursula S.; Funder, S.G.; Rasmussen, J.J.;

    2010-01-01

    . This was accomplished by coupling the system dynamics-based decision support system CARO-PLUS to the aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX using an analytical volatilization model for the stream. The model was applied to a case study where a TCE contaminated groundwater plume is discharging to a stream. The TCE source...... will not be depleted for many decades, however measured and predicted TCE concentrations in surface water were found to be below human health risk management targets. Volatilization rapidly attenuates TCE concentrations in surface water. Thus, only a 300 m stream reach fails to meet surface water quality criteria....... An ecological risk assessment found that the TCE contamination did not impact the stream ecosystem. Uncertainty assessment revealed hydraulic conductivity to be the most important site-specific parameter. These results indicate that contaminant plumes with μgL-1 concentrations of TCE entering surface water...

  13. Integrating Human and Ecosystem Health Through Ecosystem Services Frameworks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Adriana E S; Graham, Hilary; White, Piran C L

    2015-12-01

    The pace and scale of environmental change is undermining the conditions for human health. Yet the environment and human health remain poorly integrated within research, policy and practice. The ecosystem services (ES) approach provides a way of promoting integration via the frameworks used to represent relationships between environment and society in simple visual forms. To assess this potential, we undertook a scoping review of ES frameworks and assessed how each represented seven key dimensions, including ecosystem and human health. Of the 84 ES frameworks identified, the majority did not include human health (62%) or include feedback mechanisms between ecosystems and human health (75%). While ecosystem drivers of human health are included in some ES frameworks, more comprehensive frameworks are required to drive forward research and policy on environmental change and human health.

  14. Socio-hydrologic Modeling to Understand and Mediate the Competition for Water between Humans and Ecosystems: Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Li, Zheng; Pande, Saket; Savenije, Hubert

    2014-05-01

    Around the world the demand for water resources is growing in order to satisfy rapidly increasing human populations, leading to competition for water between humans and ecosystems. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling development and evaluation of effective mediation strategies. We present a case study centered on the Murrumbidgee river basin in eastern Australia that illustrates the dynamics of the balance between water extraction and use for food production and efforts to mitigate and reverse consequent degradation of the riparian environment. Interactions between patterns of water resources management and climate driven hydrological variability within the prevailing socio-economic environment have contributed to the emergence of new whole system dynamics over the last 100 years. In particular, data analysis reveals a pendulum swing between an exclusive focus on agricultural development and food production in the initial stages of water resources development and its attendant socio-economic benefits, followed by the gradual realization of the adverse environmental impacts, efforts to mitigate these with the use of remedial measures, and ultimately concerted efforts and externally imposed solutions to restore environmental health and ecosystem services. A quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that explicitly includes the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems, including evolution of human values/norms relating to water and the environment, is able to mimic broad features of this pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear differential equations that include four state variables describing the co-evolution of storage capacity, irrigated area, human population, and ecosystem health, which are all connected by feedback mechanisms. The model is used to generate insights into the dominant controls of the trajectory of

  15. Socioeconomic influences on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being: a quantitative application of the DPSIR model in Jiangsu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Ying; Zhou, Shudong; Burkhard, Benjamin; Müller, Felix

    2014-08-15

    One focus of ecosystem service research is the connection between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being as well as the socioeconomic influences on them. Despite existing investigations, exact impacts from the human system on the dynamics of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being are still uncertain because of the insufficiency of the respective quantitative analyses. Our research aims are discerning the socioeconomic influences on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being and demonstrating mutual impacts between these items. We propose a DPSIR framework coupling ecological integrity, ecosystem services as well as human well-being and suggest DPSIR indicators for the case study area Jiangsu, China. Based on available statistical and surveying data, we revealed the factors significantly impacting biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being in the research area through factor analysis and correlation analysis, using the 13 prefecture-level cities of Jiangsu as samples. The results show that urbanization and industrialization in the urban areas have predominant positive influences on regional biodiversity, agricultural productivity and tourism services as well as rural residents' living standards. Additionally, the knowledge, technology and finance inputs for agriculture also have generally positive impacts on these system components. Concerning regional carbon storage, non-cropland vegetation cover obviously plays a significant positive role. Contrarily, the expansion of farming land and the increase of total food production are two important negative influential factors of biodiversity, ecosystem's food provisioning service capacity, regional tourism income and the well-being of the rural population. Our study provides a promising approach based on the DPSIR model to quantitatively capture the socioeconomic influential factors of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being for human-environmental systems

  16. Prebiotic effect of fructooligosaccharide in the simulator of the human intestinal microbial ecosystem (SHIME® model).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivieri, Katia; Morales, Martha L Villarreal; Saad, Susana M I; Adorno, Maria A Tallarico; Sakamoto, Isabel Kimiko; Rossi, Elizeu A

    2014-08-01

    Maintaining "gut health" is a goal for scientists throughout the world. Therefore, microbiota management models for testing probiotics, prebiotics, and synbiotics have been developed. The SHIME(®) model was used to study the effect of fructooligosaccharide (FOS) on the fermentation pattern of the colon microbiota. Initially, an inoculum prepared from human feces was introduced into the reactor vessels and stabilized over 2 weeks using a culture medium. This stabilization period was followed by a 2-week control period during which the microbiota was monitored. The microbiota was then subjected to a 4-week treatment period by adding 5 g/day-1 FOS to vessel one (the "stomach" compartment). Plate counts, Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE), short-chain fatty acid (SCFA), and ammonium analyses were used to observe the influence of FOS treatment in simulated colon compartments. A significant increase (P<.01) in the Lactobacillus spp. and Bifidobacterium spp. populations was observed during the treatment period. The DGGE obtained showed the overall microbial community was changed in the ascending colon compartment of the SHIME reactor. FOS induced increase of the SCFA concentration (P<.05) during the treatment period, mainly due to significant increased levels of acetic and butyric acids. However, ammonium concentrations increased during the same period (P<.01). This study indicates the usefulness of in vitro methods that simulate the colon region as part of research towards the improvement of human health.

  17. ECOSYSTEM MODELING FOR SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    CISMAS Ioana-Cristina

    2015-01-01

    Setting new coordinates in modeling in order to ensure sustainable development in the context of the Europe 2020 strategy requirements / Horizon 2020 is a priority for protecting natural resources. The current challenges are in identifying the key aspects of IT processes, economic and ecosystem problems to ensure sustainable development. The main objectives are: a. understanding that creation and dissemination of complex system are the basic factors of economic growth; b. modeling ecosystem s...

  18. USEtox: The UNEP-SETAC consensus model for life-cycle impacts on human health and ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; McKone, Tom; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

    2007-01-01

    Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) characterizes emissions for the life-cycle assessment (LCA) of a product by translating these emissions into their potential impacts on human health, ecosystems, global climate and other resources. This process requires substance-specific characterization factors...

  19. Simulation modeling of estuarine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, R. W.

    1980-01-01

    A simulation model has been developed of Galveston Bay, Texas ecosystem. Secondary productivity measured by harvestable species (such as shrimp and fish) is evaluated in terms of man-related and controllable factors, such as quantity and quality of inlet fresh-water and pollutants. This simulation model used information from an existing physical parameters model as well as pertinent biological measurements obtained by conventional sampling techniques. Predicted results from the model compared favorably with those from comparable investigations. In addition, this paper will discuss remotely sensed and conventional measurements in the framework of prospective models that may be used to study estuarine processes and ecosystem productivity.

  20. Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Olsen

    Full Text Available Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted.We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation, and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes.We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods

  1. Benchmarking Terrestrial Ecosystem Models in the South Central US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kc, M.; Winton, K.; Langston, M. A.; Luo, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Ecosystem services and products are the foundation of sustainability for regional and global economy since we are directly or indirectly dependent on the ecosystem services like food, livestock, water, air, wildlife etc. It has been increasingly recognized that for sustainability concerns, the conservation problems need to be addressed in the context of entire ecosystems. This approach is even more vital in the 21st century with formidable increasing human population and rapid changes in global environment. This study was conducted to find the state of the science of ecosystem models in the South-Central region of US. The ecosystem models were benchmarked using ILAMB diagnostic package developed as a result of International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project on four main categories; viz, Ecosystem and Carbon Cycle, Hydrology Cycle, Radiation and Energy Cycle and Climate forcings. A cumulative assessment was generated with weighted seven different skill assessment metrics for the ecosystem models. This synthesis on the current state of the science of ecosystem modeling in the South-Central region of US will be highly useful towards coupling these models with climate, agronomic, hydrologic, economic or management models to better represent ecosystem dynamics as affected by climate change and human activities; and hence gain more reliable predictions of future ecosystem functions and service in the region. Better understandings of such processes will increase our ability to predict the ecosystem responses and feedbacks to environmental and human induced change in the region so that decision makers can make an informed management decisions of the ecosystem.

  2. Ecosystem conceptual model- Mercury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpers, Charles N.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Foe, Chris; Klasing, Susan; Marvin-DiPasquale, Mark C.; Slotton, Darell G.; Windham-Myers, Lisamarie

    2008-01-01

    mercury conceptual model and its four submodels (1. Methylation, 2. Bioaccumulation, 3. Human Health Effects, and 4. Wildlife Heath Effects) can be used to understand the general relationships among drivers and outcomes associated with mercury cycling in the Delta. Several linkages between important drivers and outcomes have been identified as important but highly uncertain (i.e. poorly understood). For example, there may be significant wildlife health effect of mercury on mammals and reptiles in the Delta, but there is currently very little or no information about it. The characteristics of such linkages are important when prioritizing and funding restoration projects and associated monitoring in the Delta and its tributaries.

  3. Mathematical modeling of the "plant community -soil-like substrate -gas exchange with the human" closed ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkhatov, Yuri; Gubanov, Vladimir; Tikhomirov, Alexander A.; Degermendzhy, Andrey G.

    A mathematical model of the "plant community -soil-like substrate -gas exchange with the human" experimental biological life support system (BLSS) has been constructed to predict its functioning and estimate feasibility of controlling it. The mathematical model consists of three compartments -two `phytotron' models (with wheat and radish) and the `mycotron' model (for mushrooms). The following components are included in the model: edible mushrooms (mushroom fruit bodies and mycelium); wheat; radish; straw (processed by mycelium); dead organic matter in the phytotron (separately for the wheat unit and for the radish unit); worms; worms' coprolites; vermicompost used as a soil-like substrate (SLS); bacterial microflora; min-eral nitrogen, phosphorus and iron; products of the system intended for humans (wheat grains, radish roots and mushroom fruit bodies); oxygen and carbon dioxide. Under continuous gas exchange, the mass exchange between the compartments occurs at the harvesting time. The conveyor character of the closed ecosystem functioning has been taken into account -the num-ber of culture age groups can be regulated (in experiments -4 and 8 age groups). The conveyor cycle duration can be regulated as well. The module is designed for the food and gas exchange requirements of 1/30 of a virtually present human. Aim of model analysis is determination of investigation direction in real experimental BLSS. The model allows doing dynamic calcu-lations of closure coefficient based on the main elements taken into account in the model and evaluating all dynamic components of the system under different conditions and modes of its operation, especially under the conditions that can hardly be created experimentally. One of the sustainability conditions can be long-duration functioning of the system under the light-ing that is far from the optimum. The mathematical model of the system can demonstrate variants of its sustainable functioning or ruin under various critical

  4. Green Infrastructure, Ecosystem Services, and Human Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coutts, Christopher; Hahn, Micah

    2015-08-18

    Contemporary ecological models of health prominently feature the natural environment as fundamental to the ecosystem services that support human life, health, and well-being. The natural environment encompasses and permeates all other spheres of influence on health. Reviews of the natural environment and health literature have tended, at times intentionally, to focus on a limited subset of ecosystem services as well as health benefits stemming from the presence, and access and exposure to, green infrastructure. The sweeping influence of green infrastructure on the myriad ecosystem services essential to health has therefore often been underrepresented. This survey of the literature aims to provide a more comprehensive picture-in the form of a primer-of the many simultaneously acting health co-benefits of green infrastructure. It is hoped that a more accurately exhaustive list of benefits will not only instigate further research into the health co-benefits of green infrastructure but also promote consilience in the many fields, including public health, that must be involved in the landscape conservation necessary to protect and improve health and well-being.

  5. Human-modified ecosystems and future evolution

    OpenAIRE

    2001-01-01

    Our global impact is finally receiving the scientific attention it deserves. The outcome will largely determine the future course of evolution. Human-modified ecosystems are shaped by our activities and their side effects. They share a common set of traits including simplified food webs, landscape homogenization, and high nutrient and energy inputs. Ecosystem simplification is the ecological hallmark of humanity and the reason for our evolutionary success. However, the...

  6. An integrated end-to-end modeling framework for testing ecosystem-wide effects of human-induced pressures in the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palacz, Artur; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Christensen, Asbjørn

    to the high-resolution coupled physical-biological model HBM-ERGOM and the fisheries bio-economic FishRent model. We investigate ecosystem-wide responses to changes in human-induced pressures by simulating several eutrophication scenarios that are relevant to existing Baltic Sea management plans (e.g. EU BSAP......, EU CFP). We further present the structure and calibration of the Baltic ATLANTIS model and the operational linkage to the other models. Using the results of eutrophication scenarios, and focusing on the relative changes in fish and fishery production, we discuss the robustness of the model linking...

  7. An Integrated End-to-End Modeling Framework for Testing Ecosystem-Wide Effects of Human-Induced Pressures in the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palacz, Artur; Maar, Marie; Nielsen, Rasmus

    to the high-resolution coupled physical-biological model HBM-ERGOM and the fisheries bio-economic FishRent model. We investigate ecosystem-wide responses to changes in human-induced pressures by simulating several eutrophication scenarios that are relevant to existing Baltic Sea management plans (e.g. EU BSAP......, EU CFP). We further present the structure and calibration of the Baltic ATLANTIS model and the operational linkage to the other models. Using the results of eutrophication scenarios, and focusing on the relative changes in fish and fishery production, we discuss the robustness of the model linking...

  8. Socio-hydrologic Modeling to Understand and Mediate the Competition for Water between Humans and Ecosystems: Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivapalan, M.

    2013-12-01

    Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash point in coming decades in all parts of the world. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling development of effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a case study centered on the Murrumbidgee river basin in eastern Australia that illustrates the dynamics of the balance between water extraction and use for food production and efforts to mitigate and reverse consequent degradation of the riparian environment. Interactions between patterns of water management and climate driven hydrological variability within the prevailing socio-economic environment have contributed to the emergence of new whole system dynamics over the last 100 years. In particular, data analysis reveals a pendulum swing between an exclusive focus on agricultural development and food production in the initial stages of water resource development and its attendant socio-economic benefits, followed by the gradual realization of the adverse environmental impacts, efforts to mitigate these with the use of remedial measures, and ultimately concerted efforts and externally imposed solutions to restore environmental health and ecosystem services. A quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that explicitly includes the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems, including evolution of human values/norms relating to water and the environment, is able to mimic broad features of this pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear differential equations that include four state variables describing the co-evolution of storage capacity, irrigated area, human population, and ecosystem health. The model is used to generate insights into the dominant controls of the trajectory of co-evolution of the coupled human-water system, to serve as the theoretical framework for more detailed analysis of

  9. Human capital in the entrepreneurship ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Annemarie; Marinova, Svetla Trifonova

    2017-01-01

    and activities when dealing with entrepreneurship and entrepreneurs. Along these lines, this paper focuses on an in-depth investigation of the domain of human capital in Isenberg's entrepreneurship ecosystem. It captures the entrepreneurial mindset of the highly complex individual as a requisite...... for entrepreneurial success and ultimately, for business growth and development. The increasing literature debating human capital confirms the relevance of locating and refining the factors for entrepreneurial success. Consequently, this paper improves the roadmap of entrepreneurship ecosystems by adding the innate...

  10. A conceptual framework for the study of human ecosystems in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steward T.A. Pickett; William R. Burch; Shawn E. Dalton; Timothy W. Foresman; J. Morgan Grove; Rowan. Rowntree

    1997-01-01

    The need for integrated concepts, capable of satisfying natural and social scientists and supporting integrated research, motivates a conceptual framework for understanding the role of humans in ecosystems. The question is how to add humans to the ecological models used to understand urban ecosystems. The ecosystem concept can serve as the basis, but specific social...

  11. Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harfoot, Michael B J; Newbold, Tim; Tittensor, Derek P; Emmott, Stephen; Hutton, Jon; Lyutsarev, Vassily; Smith, Matthew J; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purves, Drew W

    2014-04-01

    Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures.

  12. Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael B J Harfoot

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate, community (e.g., biomass turnover rates, ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids, and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures.

  13. Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

    2016-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  14. Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  15. Human impacts on Caribbean coral reef ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Hardt, Marah Justine

    2007-01-01

    Fishing is one of the oldest anthropogenic disturbances in the ocean, differing from other impacts in its direct removal of biomass from the ecosystem. Despite the centuries of fishing activities, there is much we still do not understand regarding the effects of fish removal on the benthic community. I use an interdisciplinary approach to investigate the affect of human disturbance, primarily the alteration of fish communities, on major functional groups of coral reefs, over extended temporal...

  16. A Size-based Ecosystem Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn-Jonsen, Lars

     Ecosystem Management requires models that can link the ecosystem level to the operation level. This link can be created by an ecosystem production model. Because the function of the individual fish in the marine ecosystem, seen in trophic context, is closely related to its size, the model groups...... fish according to size. The model summarises individual predation events into ecosystem level properties, and thereby uses the law of conversation of mass as a framework. This paper provides the background, the conceptual model, basic assumptions, integration of fishing activities, mathematical...... completion, and a numeric implementation. Using two experiments, the model's ability to act as tool for economic production analysis and regulation design testing is demonstrated. The presented model is the simplest possible and is built on the principles of (i) size, as the attribute that determines...

  17. A theoretical model for assessing the sustainability Of ecosystem services

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Feng Ling; Cheng Shengkui; Su Hua; Min Qingwen

    2008-01-01

    The Value of the World's Ecosystem Services and Natural Capital by Costanza in 1997 is generally regarded as a monument for the research of valuing ecosystem services. However, the classification of ecosystem services, the method of various services summation and the purpose for static global value had be confronted by many criticisms. Based on the summary of these criticisms, suggestions, related function assessment and further study direction, the sustainability of ecosystem services is presented The two basic indicators in ecology, productivity and biodiversity, respectively charactering the ability of producing and self-organizing, not only represent the internal function of ecosystem, but also are proportioned to its external function of supporting and providing for human life On presenting the general form of ecosystem services assessment, this paper improves the mathematical formula giving a function adjusting coefficient composed of productivity and biodiversity. Theoretically, the integration of the two indicators reflects the changes of ecosystem services at spatial and temporal scales, can physically assess the sustability of ecosystem services, and build a firm scientific fundament of value assessment for ecosystem services Objectively, its application should be strictly tested in next step.Ecosystem services; theoretical model; Sustainability; Bio-productivity; Biodiversity

  18. Past Holocene soil erosion modeling as a new way to decipher human-climate-environment interactions on natural geo-ecosystem over long time-scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonneau, Anaëlle; Di Giovanni, Christian; Chapron, Emmanuel

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion is a global phenomenon dealing with both environmental, societal and economic issues. Soil erosion is also one of the key processes when it is a matter of Human-climate-environment interactions [1, 2] since if mechanical erosion of continental surfaces initially results from climatic forcing, it can be largely amplified by anthropogenic activities. Using multi-scalar datasets to model long-term (Holocene) erosion fluxes in contrasted areas, where human pressure is well documented by geoarchaeology, we address how landscape evolution, geomorphological processes, ecosystem response and human impacts have been connected over time. Beyond that, such interdisciplinary and integrative approach allow (1) to locally date, qualify, and in particular quantify, both climate variability (rainfall) and impacts of human activities on soils, and (2) to discuss of potential feedback mechanisms and the legacy of past socio-cultural systems on actual geo-ecosystems. Lacustrine sediment represents one of the more relevant natural archives in order to reconstruct environmental or climatic variability and human activities over the past thousand years. Over the last 50 years, the edges of lakes Paladru (low altitude site, 640 m a.s.l.) and Blanc Huez (high-altitude site, 2250 m a.s.l.), both located in Western French Alps and therefore sensitive to the same climatic influences, have been deeply studied by archaeologists who documented and dated periods of enhanced human pressures (agriculture, mining [3, 4]). In these two case-studies, we were therefore able to confront the specific calendars of local human activities with past landscape evolution (vegetation cover, 5) and soil erosion fluxes reconstituted from specific organic tracers quantified into the lacustrine sediments [3, 6]. Results demonstrated that, over the Holocene, climatic forcing, and more particularly glacial fluctuations, influenced human accessibility to high-altitude sites (lake Blanc Huez) and therefore

  19. Ecosystem Based Business Model of Smart Grid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundgaard, Morten Raahauge; Ma, Zheng; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper tries to investigate the ecosystem based business model in a smart grid infrastructure and the potential of value capture in the highly complex macro infrastructure such as smart grid. This paper proposes an alternative perspective to study the smart grid business ecosystem to support...... the infrastructural challenges, such as the interoperability of business components for smart grid. So far little research has explored the business ecosystem in the smart grid concept. The study on the smart grid with the theory of business ecosystem may open opportunities to understand market catalysts. This study...... contributes an understanding of business ecosystem applicable for smart grid. Smart grid infrastructure is an intricate business ecosystem, which have several intentions to deliver the value proposition and what it should be. The findings help to identify and capture value from markets....

  20. Eden in Peril: Impact of Humans on Pacific Island Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moshe Rapaport

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Islands have often been cited as models of human impact upon the environment. With high rates of endemism and other unique characteristics, island ecosystems are subject to dramatic perturbation. The arrival of humans in Near Oceania during the Pleistocene led swiftly to a series of fauna extinctions. In the New Guinea Highlands clearing and tending of wild plants gave rise to tree and root crop agriculture, intensive cultivation technology, and anthropogenic grasslands. By 3600 BP (Before Present, Lapita settlers had reached Remote Oceania, leading to deforestation and declines in birds and other species. European contact introduced new biota and new technology, with significant consequences for island environments and societies. Questions have been raised concerning the impact of climate change on island ecosystems. Population growth plays a significant role in environmental degradation, though not necessarily as a proximate cause. The Tikopian arboriculture system provides one of several Oceanic models of sustainability.

  1. Trialogue model for ecosystem governance.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hattingh, J

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available ? Strong leadership is a key element for good governance and includes the ability to ensure effective decision-making, policy-formulation, goal-setting, consensus-seeking and problem-solving skills. Good leadership skills are necessary within all three... of public officials, is important when trying to understand the motivation for and outcomes arising from any covert activities underlying ecosystem governance processes; yet this topic is often neglected. Using public-domain information arising from...

  2. Natural and human impacts on ecosystem services in Guanzhong - Tianshui economic region of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Zhou, Z X

    2016-04-01

    Due to the accelerated growth of society, the gaps between the capacity of ecosystems to provide services and human needs are steadily widening. Natural, semi-natural, or managed ecosystems had been able to provide ecosystem services to meet the needs of social development. Four agricultural ecosystem services (net primary production (NPP), carbon sequestration and oxygen production (CSOP), water interception, soil conservation and agriculture production) were quantified in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. Estimates of ecosystem services were obtained from the analysis of satellite imagery and the use of well-known models. Based on the ecological services in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region, this study mainly analysed the driving mechanism of the changes from the two aspects of natural drivers and human drivers. Natural drivers (climate, soil, elevation, land cover) had incentive to the ecological services. Human activity was quantified by an integrated human activity index (HAI) based on population density, farmland ratio, and the influence of road networks and residential areas. We found relationships between ecosystem services, human activities and many natural factors, however these varied according to the service studied. Human activities were mostly negatively related to each ecosystem services, while population and residential land ware positively related to agricultural production. Land use change had made a contribution to ecosystem services. Based on the selected ecosystem services and HAI, we provided sustainable ecosystem management suggestions.

  3. Going beyond the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: an index system of human dependence on ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wu; Dietz, Thomas; Liu, Wei; Luo, Junyan; Liu, Jianguo

    2013-01-01

    The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) estimated that two thirds of ecosystem services on the earth have degraded or are in decline due to the unprecedented scale of human activities during recent decades. These changes will have tremendous consequences for human well-being, and offer both risks and opportunities for a wide range of stakeholders. Yet these risks and opportunities have not been well managed due in part to the lack of quantitative understanding of human dependence on ecosystem services. Here, we propose an index of dependence on ecosystem services (IDES) system to quantify human dependence on ecosystem services. We demonstrate the construction of the IDES system using household survey data. We show that the overall index and sub-indices can reflect the general pattern of households' dependences on ecosystem services, and their variations across time, space, and different forms of capital (i.e., natural, human, financial, manufactured, and social capitals). We support the proposition that the poor are more dependent on ecosystem services and further generalize this proposition by arguing that those disadvantaged groups who possess low levels of any form of capital except for natural capital are more dependent on ecosystem services than those with greater control of capital. The higher value of the overall IDES or sub-index represents the higher dependence on the corresponding ecosystem services, and thus the higher vulnerability to the degradation or decline of corresponding ecosystem services. The IDES system improves our understanding of human dependence on ecosystem services. It also provides insights into strategies for alleviating poverty, for targeting priority groups of conservation programs, and for managing risks and opportunities due to changes of ecosystem services at multiple scales.

  4. Comparative analysis of marine ecosystems: international production modelling workshop.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, Jason S; Megrey, Bernard A; Miller, Thomas J; Essington, Tim; Boldt, Jennifer; Bundy, Alida; Moksness, Erlend; Drinkwater, Ken F; Perry, R Ian

    2010-12-23

    Understanding the drivers that dictate the productivity of marine ecosystems continues to be a globally important issue. A vast literature identifies three main processes that regulate the production dynamics of such ecosystems: biophysical, exploitative and trophodynamic. Exploring the prominence among this 'triad' of drivers, through a synthetic analysis, is critical for understanding how marine ecosystems function and subsequently produce fisheries resources of interest to humans. To explore this topic further, an international workshop was held on 10-14 May 2010, at the National Academy of Science's Jonsson Center in Woods Hole, MA, USA. The workshop compiled the data required to develop production models at different hierarchical levels (e.g. species, guild, ecosystem) for many of the major Northern Hemisphere marine ecosystems that have supported notable fisheries. Analyses focused on comparable total system biomass production, functionally equivalent species production, or simulation studies for 11 different marine fishery ecosystems. Workshop activities also led to new analytical tools. Preliminary results suggested common patterns driving overall fisheries production in these ecosystems, but also highlighted variation in the relative importance of each among ecosystems.

  5. Past Holocene detritism quantification and modeling from lacustrine archives in order to deconvoluate human-climate interactions on natural ecosystem over long time-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonneau, Anaëlle; Chapron, Emmanuel; Di Giovanni, Christian; Galop, Didier; Darboux, Frédéric

    2014-05-01

    Water budget is one of the main challenges to paleoclimate researchers in relation to present-day global warming and its consequences for human societies. Associated soil degradation and erosion are thereby becoming a major concern in many parts of the world and more particularly in the Alps. Moreover, humans are considered as geomorphologic agents since few thousand years and it is now recognized that such an impact on natural ecosystem profoundly modified soils properties as well as aquatic ecosystems dynamics over long-term periods. The quantification of such inference over long time-scale is therefore essential to establish new policies to reduce mechanic soil erosion, which is one of the dominant processes in Europe, and anticipate the potential consequences of future climate change on hydric erosion. The mechanical erosion of continental surfaces results from climatic forcing, but can be amplified by the anthropogenic one. We therefore suggest that quantifying and modelling soil erosion processes within comparable Holocene lacustrine archives, allows to estimate and date which and when past human activities have had an impact on soil fluxes over the last 10000 years. Based on the present-day geomorphology of the surrounding watershed and the evolution of the vegetation cover during the Holocene, we develop an interdisciplinary approach combining quantitative organic petrography (i.e. optical characterization and quantification of soil particles within lake sediments) with high-resolution seismic profiling, age-depth models on lacustrine sediment cores and soil erosional susceptibility modeling, in order to estimate the annual volume of soil eroded over the last 10000 years, and in fine to quantify the volume of human-induced soil erosion during the Holocene period. This method is applied to close but contrasted mountainous lacustrine environments from the western French Alps: lakes Blanc Huez and Paladru, sensitive to same climatic influences but where past

  6. Unraveling the relationships between ecosystems and human wellbeing in Spain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Santos-Martín

    Full Text Available National ecosystem assessments provide evidence on the status and trends of biodiversity, ecosystem conditions, and the delivery of ecosystem services to society. I this study, we analyze the complex relationships established between ecosystems and human systems in Spain through the combination of Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework and structural equation models. Firstly, to operationalize the framework, we selected 53 national scale indicators that provide accurate, long-term information on each of the components. Secondly, structural equation models were performed to understand the relationships among the components of the framework. Trend indicators have shown an overall progressive biodiversity loss, trade-offs between provisioning and cultural services associated with urban areas vs. regulating and cultural services associated with rural areas, a decoupling effect between material and non-material dimensions of human wellbeing, a rapid growing trend of conservation responses in recent years and a constant growing linear trend of direct or indirect drivers of change. Results also show that all the components analyzed in the model are strongly related. On one hand, the model shows that biodiversity erosion negatively affect the supply of regulating services, while it is positively related with the increase of provisioning service delivery. On the other hand, the most important relationship found in the model is the effect of pressures on biodiversity loss, indicating that response options for conserving nature cannot counteract the effect of the drivers of change. These results suggest that there is an insufficient institutional response to address the underlying causes (indirect drivers of change of biodiversity loos in Spain. We conclude that more structural changes are required in the Spanish institutional framework to reach 2020 biodiversity conservation international targets.

  7. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model: integrating ecosystem services into the DPSIR framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelble, Christopher R; Loomis, Dave K; Lovelace, Susan; Nuttle, William K; Ortner, Peter B; Fletcher, Pamela; Cook, Geoffrey S; Lorenz, Jerry J; Boyer, Joseph N

    2013-01-01

    There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within

  8. The EBM-DPSER Conceptual Model: Integrating Ecosystem Services into the DPSIR Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelble, Christopher R.; Loomis, Dave K.; Lovelace, Susan; Nuttle, William K.; Ortner, Peter B.; Fletcher, Pamela; Cook, Geoffrey S.; Lorenz, Jerry J.; Boyer, Joseph N.

    2013-01-01

    There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within

  9. A model for the induction of autism in the ecosystem of the human body: the anatomy of a modern pandemic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Staci D. Bilbo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The field of autism research is currently divided based on a fundamental question regarding the nature of autism: Some are convinced that autism is a pandemic of modern culture, with environmental factors at the roots. Others are convinced that the disease is not pandemic in nature, but rather that it has been with humanity for millennia, with its biological and neurological underpinnings just now being understood. Objective: In this review, two lines of reasoning are examined which suggest that autism is indeed a pandemic of modern culture. First, given the widely appreciated derailment of immune function by modern culture, evidence that autism is strongly associated with aberrant immune function is examined. Second, evidence is reviewed indicating that autism is associated with ‘triggers’ that are, for the most part, a construct of modern culture. In light of this reasoning, current epidemiological evidence regarding the incidence of autism, including the role of changing awareness and diagnostic criteria, is examined. Finally, the potential role of the microbial flora (the microbiome in the pathogenesis of autism is discussed, with the view that the microbial flora is a subset of the life associated with the human body, and that the entire human biome, including both the microbial flora and the fauna, has been radically destabilized by modern culture. Conclusions: It is suggested that the unequivocal way to resolve the debate regarding the pandemic nature of autism is to perform an experiment: monitor the prevalence of autism after normalizing immune function in a Western population using readily available approaches that address the well-known factors underlying the immune dysfunction in that population.

  10. Ecosystem Modeling in the South Central US: A Synthesis of Current Models toward the Development of Coupled Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kc, M.

    2015-12-01

    Ecosystem services and products are the foundation of sustainability for regional and global economy since we are directly or indirectly dependent on the ecosystem services like food, livestock, water, air, wildlife etc. It has been increasingly recognized that for sustainability concerns, the conservation problems need to be addressed in the context of entire ecosystems. This approach known as the ecosystem approach is fundamental to managing earth's finite resources since it addresses the interactions that link biotic systems, of which human, flora and fauna are integral parts, with the physical systems on which they depend. This approach is even more vital in the 21st century with formidable increasing human population and rapid changes in global environment. This study is being conducted to find the state of the science of ecosystem models in the South-Central region of US. The propose of the project is to conduct a systematic review and synthesize relevant information on the current state of the science of ecosystem modeling in the South-Central region of US toward coupling these models with climate, agronomic, hydrologic, economic or management models to better represent ecosystem dynamics as affected by climate change and human activities; and hence gain more reliable predictions of future ecosystem functions and service in the region. Better understandings of such processes will increase our ability to predict the ecosystem responses and feedbacks to environmental and human induced change in the region so that decision makers can make an informed management decisions of the ecosystem.

  11. Modeling soil moisture memory in savanna ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gou, S.; Miller, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Antecedent soil conditions create an ecosystem's "memory" of past rainfall events. Such soil moisture memory effects may be observed over a range of timescales, from daily to yearly, and lead to feedbacks between hydrological and ecosystem processes. In this study, we modeled the soil moisture memory effect on savanna ecosystems in California, Arizona, and Africa, using a system dynamics model created to simulate the ecohydrological processes at the plot-scale. The model was carefully calibrated using soil moisture and evapotranspiration data collected at three study sites. The model was then used to simulate scenarios with various initial soil moisture conditions and antecedent precipitation regimes, in order to study the soil moisture memory effects on the evapotranspiration of understory and overstory species. Based on the model results, soil texture and antecedent precipitation regime impact the redistribution of water within soil layers, potentially causing deeper soil layers to influence the ecosystem for a longer time. Of all the study areas modeled, soil moisture memory of California savanna ecosystem site is replenished and dries out most rapidly. Thus soil moisture memory could not maintain the high rate evapotranspiration for more than a few days without incoming rainfall event. On the contrary, soil moisture memory of Arizona savanna ecosystem site lasts the longest time. The plants with different root depths respond to different memory effects; shallow-rooted species mainly respond to the soil moisture memory in the shallow soil. The growing season of grass is largely depended on the soil moisture memory of the top 25cm soil layer. Grass transpiration is sensitive to the antecedent precipitation events within daily to weekly timescale. Deep-rooted plants have different responses since these species can access to the deeper soil moisture memory with longer time duration Soil moisture memory does not have obvious impacts on the phenology of woody plants

  12. Elasticity in ecosystem services: exploring the variable relationship between ecosystems and human well-being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim M. Daw

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Although ecosystem services are increasingly recognized as benefits people obtain from nature, we still have a poor understanding of how they actually enhance multidimensional human well-being, and how well-being is affected by ecosystem change. We develop a concept of "ecosystem service elasticity" (ES elasticity that describes the sensitivity of human well-being to changes in ecosystems. ES Elasticity is a result of complex social and ecological dynamics and is context dependent, individually variable, and likely to demonstrate nonlinear dynamics such as thresholds and hysteresis. We present a conceptual framework that unpacks the chain of causality from ecosystem stocks through flows, goods, value, and shares to contribute to the well-being of different people. This framework builds on previous conceptualizations, but places multidimensional well-being of different people as the final element. This ultimately disaggregated approach emphasizes how different people access benefits and how benefits match their needs or aspirations. Applying this framework to case studies of individual coastal ecosystem services in East Africa illustrates a wide range of social and ecological factors that can affect ES elasticity. For example, food web and habitat dynamics affect the sensitivity of different fisheries ecosystem services to ecological change. Meanwhile high cultural significance, or lack of alternatives enhance ES elasticity, while social mechanisms that prevent access can reduce elasticity. Mapping out how chains are interlinked illustrates how different types of value and the well-being of different people are linked to each other and to common ecological stocks. We suggest that examining chains for individual ecosystem services can suggest potential interventions aimed at poverty alleviation and sustainable ecosystems while mapping out of interlinkages between chains can help to identify possible ecosystem service trade-offs and winners and

  13. Hydrologic Modeling of Boreal Forest Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    1995-01-01

    This study focused on the hydrologic response, including vegetation water use, of two test regions within the Boreal-Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) region in the Canadian boreal forest, one north of Prince Albert, Saskatchewan, and the other near Thompson, Manitoba. Fluxes of moisture and heat were studied using a spatially distributed hydrology soil-vegetation-model (DHSVM).

  14. Ecosystem Services Connect Environmental Change to Human Health Outcomes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bayles, Brett R.; Brauman, Kate A.; Adkins, Joshua N.; Allan, Brian F.; Ellis, Alicia M.; Goldberg, Tony L.; Golden, Christopher D.; Grigsby-Toussaint, Diana S.; Myers, Samuel S.; Ofosky, Steven A.; Ricketts, Taylor H.; Ristaino, Jean B.

    2016-06-29

    Global environmental change, driven in large part by human activities, profoundly impacts the structure and functioning of Earth’s ecosystems (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). We are beginning to push beyond planetary boundaries (Steffan et al. 2015), and the consequences for human health remain largely unknown (Myers et al. 2013). Growing evidence suggests that ecological transformations can dramatically affect human health in ways that are both obvious and obscure (Myers and Patz 2009; Myers et al. 2013). The framework of ecosystem services, designed to evaluate the benefits that people derive from ecosystem products and processes, provides a compelling framework for integrating the many factors that influence the human health response to global change, as well as for integrating health impacts into broader analyses of the impacts of this change

  15. Towards ecosystem accounting: a comprehensive approach to modelling multiple hydrological ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duku, C.; Rathjens, H.; Zwart, S. J.; Hein, L.

    2015-10-01

    Ecosystem accounting is an emerging field that aims to provide a consistent approach to analysing environment-economy interactions. One of the specific features of ecosystem accounting is the distinction between the capacity and the flow of ecosystem services. Ecohydrological modelling to support ecosystem accounting requires considering among others physical and mathematical representation of ecohydrological processes, spatial heterogeneity of the ecosystem, temporal resolution, and required model accuracy. This study examines how a spatially explicit ecohydrological model can be used to analyse multiple hydrological ecosystem services in line with the ecosystem accounting framework. We use the Upper Ouémé watershed in Benin as a test case to demonstrate our approach. The Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT), which has been configured with a grid-based landscape discretization and further enhanced to simulate water flow across the discretized landscape units, is used to simulate the ecohydrology of the Upper Ouémé watershed. Indicators consistent with the ecosystem accounting framework are used to map and quantify the capacities and the flows of multiple hydrological ecosystem services based on the model outputs. Biophysical ecosystem accounts are subsequently set up based on the spatial estimates of hydrological ecosystem services. In addition, we conduct trend analysis statistical tests on biophysical ecosystem accounts to identify trends in changes in the capacity of the watershed ecosystems to provide service flows. We show that the integration of hydrological ecosystem services into an ecosystem accounting framework provides relevant information on ecosystems and hydrological ecosystem services at appropriate scales suitable for decision-making.

  16. Computational modelling of evolution: ecosystems and language

    CERN Document Server

    Lipowski, Adam

    2008-01-01

    Recently, computational modelling became a very important research tool that enables us to study problems that for decades evaded scientific analysis. Evolutionary systems are certainly examples of such problems: they are composed of many units that might reproduce, diffuse, mutate, die, or in some cases for example communicate. These processes might be of some adaptive value, they influence each other and occur on various time scales. That is why such systems are so difficult to study. In this paper we briefly review some computational approaches, as well as our contributions, to the evolution of ecosystems and language. We start from Lotka-Volterra equations and the modelling of simple two-species prey-predator systems. Such systems are canonical example for studying oscillatory behaviour in competitive populations. Then we describe various approaches to study long-term evolution of multi-species ecosystems. We emphasize the need to use models that take into account both ecological and evolutionary processe...

  17. Evapotranspiration Modeling and Measurements at Ecosystem Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirca, C.; Snyder, R. L.; Mereu, S.; Kovács-Láng, E.; Ónodi, G.; Spano, D.

    2012-12-01

    In recent years, the availability of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) data is greatly increased. ETo, in conjunction with coefficients accounting for the difference between the vegetation and the reference surface, provides estimation of the actual evapotranspiration (ETa). The coefficients approach was applied in the past mainly for crops, due the lack of experimental data and difficulties to account for terrain and vegetation variability in natural ecosystems. Moreover, the assessment of ETa over large spatial scale by measurements is often time consuming, and requires several measurement points with relatively expensive and sophisticated instrumentation and techniques (e.g. eddy covariance). The Ecosystem Water Program (ECOWAT) was recently developed to help estimates of ETa of ecosystems by accounting for microclimate, vegetation type, plant density, and water stress. ETa on natural and semi-natural ecosystems has several applications, e.g. water status assessment, fire danger estimation, and ecosystem management practices. In this work, results obtained using ECOWAT to assess ETa of a forest ecosystem located in Hungary are reported. The site is a part of the EU-FP7 INCREASE project, which aims to study the effects of climate change on European shrubland ecosystems. In the site, a climate manipulation experiment was setted up to have a warming and a drought treatment (besides the control). Each treatment was replicated three times We show how the ECOWAT model performed when the predicted actual evapotranspiration is compared with actual evapotranspiration obtained from Surface Renewal method and with soil moisture measurements. ECOWAT was able to capture the differences in the water balance at treatment level, confirming its potential as a tool for water status assessment. For the Surface Renewal method, high frequency temperature data were collected to estimate the sensible heat flux (H'). The net radiation (Rn) and soil heat flux density (G) were also

  18. Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertram, Jason, E-mail: jason.bertram@anu.edu.au [Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

    2014-12-05

    Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes’ broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on the information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example.

  19. Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, Jason

    2014-12-01

    Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes' broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on the information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example.

  20. Viability Kernel for Ecosystem Management Models

    CERN Document Server

    Anaya, Eladio Ocana; Oliveros--Ramos, Ricardo; Tam, Jorge

    2009-01-01

    We consider sustainable management issues formulated within the framework of control theory. The problem is one of controlling a discrete--time dynamical system (e.g. population model) in the presence of state and control constraints, representing conflicting economic and ecological issues for instance. The viability kernel is known to play a basic role for the analysis of such problems and the design of viable control feedbacks, but its computation is not an easy task in general. We study the viability of nonlinear generic ecosystem models under preservation and production constraints. Under simple conditions on the growth rates at the boundary constraints, we provide an explicit description of the viability kernel. A numerical illustration is given for the hake--anchovy couple in the Peruvian upwelling ecosystem.

  1. Modeling and Security in Cloud Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo B. Fernandez

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Clouds do not work in isolation but interact with other clouds and with a variety of systems either developed by the same provider or by external entities with the purpose to interact with them; forming then an ecosystem. A software ecosystem is a collection of software systems that have been developed to coexist and evolve together. The stakeholders of such a system need a variety of models to give them a perspective of the possibilities of the system, to evaluate specific quality attributes, and to extend the system. A powerful representation when building or using software ecosystems is the use of architectural models, which describe the structural aspects of such a system. These models have value for security and compliance, are useful to build new systems, can be used to define service contracts, find where quality factors can be monitored, and to plan further expansion. We have described a cloud ecosystem in the form of a pattern diagram where its components are patterns and reference architectures. A pattern is an encapsulated solution to a recurrent problem. We have recently expanded these models to cover fog systems and containers. Fog Computing is a highly-virtualized platform that provides compute, storage, and networking services between end devices and Cloud Computing Data Centers; a Software Container provides an execution environment for applications sharing a host operating system, binaries, and libraries with other containers. We intend to use this architecture to answer a variety of questions about the security of this system as well as a reference to design interacting combinations of heterogeneous components. We defined a metamodel to relate security concepts which is being expanded.

  2. Describing Ecosystem Complexity through Integrated Catchment Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, C. L.; Tenhunen, J. D.; Peiffer, S.

    2011-12-01

    Land use and climate change have been implicated in reduced ecosystem services (ie: high quality water yield, biodiversity, and agricultural yield. The prediction of ecosystem services expected under future land use decisions and changing climate conditions has become increasingly important. Complex policy and management decisions require the integration of physical, economic, and social data over several scales to assess effects on water resources and ecology. Field-based meteorology, hydrology, soil physics, plant production, solute and sediment transport, economic, and social behavior data were measured in a South Korean catchment. A variety of models are being used to simulate plot and field scale experiments within the catchment. Results from each of the local-scale models provide identification of sensitive, local-scale parameters which are then used as inputs into a large-scale watershed model. We used the spatially distributed SWAT model to synthesize the experimental field data throughout the catchment. The approach of our study was that the range in local-scale model parameter results can be used to define the sensitivity and uncertainty in the large-scale watershed model. Further, this example shows how research can be structured for scientific results describing complex ecosystems and landscapes where cross-disciplinary linkages benefit the end result. The field-based and modeling framework described is being used to develop scenarios to examine spatial and temporal changes in land use practices and climatic effects on water quantity, water quality, and sediment transport. Development of accurate modeling scenarios requires understanding the social relationship between individual and policy driven land management practices and the value of sustainable resources to all shareholders.

  3. Modelling the Congo basin ecosystems with a dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dury, Marie; Hambuckers, Alain; Trolliet, Franck; Huynen, Marie-Claude; Haineaux, Damien; Fontaine, Corentin M.; Fayolle, Adeline; François, Louis

    2014-05-01

    The scarcity of field observations in some parts of the world makes difficult a deep understanding of some ecosystems such as humid tropical forests in Central Africa. Therefore, modelling tools are interesting alternatives to study those regions even if the lack of data often prevents sharp calibration and validation of the model projections. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are process-based models that simulate shifts in potential vegetation and its associated biogeochemical and hydrological cycles in response to climate. Initially run at the global scale, DVMs can be run at any spatial scale provided that climate and soil data are available. In the framework of the BIOSERF project ("Sustainability of tropical forest biodiversity and services under climate and human pressure"), we use and adapt the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) to study the Congo basin vegetation dynamics. The field campaigns have notably allowed the refinement of the vegetation representation from plant functional types (PFTs) to individual species through the collection of parameters such as the specific leaf area or the leaf C:N ratio of common tropical tree species and the location of their present-day occurrences from literature and available database. Here, we test the model ability to reproduce the present spatial and temporal variations of carbon stocks (e.g. biomass, soil carbon) and fluxes (e.g. gross and net primary productivities (GPP and NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP)) as well as the observed distribution of the studied species over the Congo basin. In the lack of abundant and long-term measurements, we compare model results with time series of remote sensing products (e.g. vegetation leaf area index (LAI), GPP and NPP). Several sensitivity tests are presented: we assess consecutively the impacts of the level at which the vegetation is simulated (PFTs or species), the spatial resolution and the initial land

  4. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorner, W.; Spachinger, K.; Porter, M.; Metzka, R.

    2008-11-01

    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  5. Modification of Costanza's model of valuing ecosystem services and its application in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shi Xiaoli; Wang Wei

    2009-01-01

    In the past, evaluations of ecosystem functions were mostly based on Costanza's model, whereas the spatial, quality and temporal characteristics of regional ecosystems were not considered in the model.Focusing on these Issues, coefficients of regional difference, spatial heterogeneity and willingness-to-pay (WTP) were established to modify Costanza's model, and a new comprehensive valuation model of ecosystem functions is proposed.The analytical results indicate that the comprehensive model could evaluate regional ecosystem functions in China accurately and provide more helpful information for decision-making.The empirical study on Zhangbei County in Hebei Province shows that the intensive human activities could limit the provision of ecosystem functions while the planned ecological programs might promote the restoration of ecosystem functions.

  6. Modeling dynamic assessment of ecosystem services based on remote sensing technology:A sampling of the Gansu grassland ecosystem

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The ecosystem is important because it is the life sustaining system for human survival.Three ecosystem characteristics are:regional particularities,ecosystem complexity and conventional cultural particularities.This paper develops a remote sensing based dynamic model to assess grassland ecosystem service values involving multidisciplinary knowledge.The ecological value of grassland ecosystems is focused on using a remote sensing technique in the model,and setting up the framework for a dynamic assessing model.The grassland ecological services condition and value in 1985 is used as the benchmark.The dynamic model has two adjusting indicators:biomass and price index.The biomass is simulated using the CASA(Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model.The price index was obtained from statistics data published by the statistical bureau.Results show that the grassland ecosystem value in Gansu Province was 28.36 billion Chinese Yuan in 1985,140.37 billion in 1999 and 130.86 billion in 2002.

  7. Analyzing, Modelling, and Designing Software Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos

    as the software development and distribution by a set of actors dependent on each other and the ecosystem. We commence on the hypothesis that the establishment of a software ecosystem on the telemedicine services of Denmark would address these issues and investigate how a software ecosystem can foster...... structures, supporting actor involvement in the ecosystem, and (v) proper orchestration and governance of the ecosystem to promote and support the changes and the health of the ecosystem. Our work contributes to Net4Care, a platform to serve as the common platform in the software ecosystem under...

  8. A simulation of microbial competition in the human colonic ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, M E; Dreesen, D W; Wiegert, R G

    1996-10-01

    Many investigations of the interactions of microbial competitors in the gastrointestinal tract used continuous-flow anaerobic cultures. The simulation reported here was a deterministic 11-compartment model coded by using the C programming language and based on parameters from published in vitro studies and assumptions were data were unavailable. The resource compartments were glucose, lactose and sucrose, starch, sorbose, and serine. Six microbial competitors included indigenous nonpathogenic colonizers of the human gastrointestinal tract (Escherichia coli, Enterobacter aerogenes, Bacteroids ovatus, Fusobacterium varium, and Enterococcus faecalis) and the potential human enteropathogen Salmonella typhimurium. Flows of carbon from the resources to the microbes were modified by resource and space controls. Partitioning of resources to the competitors that could utilize them was calculated at each iteration on the basis of availability of all resources by feeding preference functions. Resources did not accumulate during iterations of the model. The results of the computer simulation of microbial competition model and for various modifications of the model. The results were based on few measured parameters but may be useful in the design of user-friendly software to aid researchers in defining and manipulating the microbial ecology of colonic ecosystems as relates to food-borne disease.

  9. Human activities change marine ecosystems by altering predation risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madin, Elizabeth M P; Dill, Lawrence M; Ridlon, April D; Heithaus, Michael R; Warner, Robert R

    2016-01-01

    In ocean ecosystems, many of the changes in predation risk - both increases and decreases - are human-induced. These changes are occurring at scales ranging from global to local and across variable temporal scales. Indirect, risk-based effects of human activity are known to be important in structuring some terrestrial ecosystems, but these impacts have largely been neglected in oceans. Here, we synthesize existing literature and data to explore multiple lines of evidence that collectively suggest diverse human activities are changing marine ecosystems, including carbon storage capacity, in myriad ways by altering predation risk. We provide novel, compelling evidence that at least one key human activity, overfishing, can lead to distinct, cascading risk effects in natural ecosystems whose magnitude exceeds that of presumed lethal effects and may account for previously unexplained findings. We further discuss the conservation implications of human-caused indirect risk effects. Finally, we provide a predictive framework for when human alterations of risk in oceans should lead to cascading effects and outline a prospectus for future research. Given the speed and extent with which human activities are altering marine risk landscapes, it is crucial that conservation and management policy considers the indirect effects of these activities in order to increase the likelihood of success and avoid unfortunate surprises. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Assessment of Urban Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Weight Extension Decision Model in Urban Agglomeration

    OpenAIRE

    Qian Yang; Aiwen Lin; Zhenzhen Zhao; Ling Zou; Cheng Sun

    2016-01-01

    Urban ecosystem health evaluation can assist in sustainable ecological management at a regional level. This study examined urban agglomeration ecosystem health in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River with entropy weight and extension theories. The model overcomes information omissions and subjectivity problems in the evaluation process of urban ecosystem health. Results showed that human capital and education, economic development level as well as urban infrastructure have a significant ef...

  11. Ecosystem element transport model for Lake Eckarfjaerden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konovalenko, L.; Bradshaw, C. [The Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University (Sweden); Andersson, E.; Kautsky, U. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. - SKB (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    The ecosystem transport model of elements was developed for Lake Eckarfjaerden located in the Forsmark area in Sweden. Forsmark has currently a low level repository (SFR) and a repository for spent fuel is planned. A large number of data collected during site-investigation program 2002-2009 for planning the repository were available for the creation of the compartment model based on carbon circulation, physical and biological processes (e.g. primary production, consumption, respiration). The model is site-specific in the sense that the food web model is adapted to the actual food web at the site, and most estimates of biomass and metabolic rates for the organisms and meteorological data originate from site data. The functional organism groups of Lake Eckarfjaerden were considered as separate compartments: bacterio-plankton, benthic bacteria, macro-algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, benthic fauna. Two functional groups of bacteria were taken into account for the reason that they have the highest biomass of all functional groups during the winter, comprising 36% of the total biomass. Effects of ecological parameters, such as bacteria and algae biomass, on redistribution of a hypothetical radionuclide release in the lake were examined. The ecosystem model was used to estimate the environmental transfer of several elements (U, Th, Ra) and their isotopes (U-238, U-234,Th-232, Ra-226) to various aquatic organisms in the lake, using element-specific distribution coefficients for suspended particle and sediment. Results of chemical analyses of the water, sediment and biota were used for model validation. The model gives estimates of concentration factors for fish based on modelling rather on in situ measurement, which reduces the uncertainties for many radionuclides with scarce of data. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  12. Ecosystem models. (Latest citations from the NTIS database). Published Search

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-07-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the design and applications of ecosystem models. Ecosystem simulation and characterization models, together with models for marine biology, plants, microorganisms, and food chains, are described. Models that assess the effect of pollutants on specific environments and habitat suitability index models are also included. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  13. Analyzing, Modelling, and Designing Software Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos

    of software ecosystems. We use these contributions to design a software ecosystem in the telemedicine services of Denmark with (i) a common platform that supports and promotes development from different actors, (ii) high software interaction, (iii) strong social network of actors, (iv) robust business...... as the software development and distribution by a set of actors dependent on each other and the ecosystem. We commence on the hypothesis that the establishment of a software ecosystem on the telemedicine services of Denmark would address these issues and investigate how a software ecosystem can foster...... the development, implementation, and use of telemedicine services. We initially expand the theory of software ecosystems by contributing to the definition and understanding of software ecosystems, providing means of analyzing existing and designing new ecosystems, and defining and measuring the qualities...

  14. Simulation modelling of fynbos ecosystems: Systems analysis and conceptual models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kruger, FJ

    1985-03-01

    Full Text Available This report outlines progress with the development of computer based dynamic simulation models for ecosystems in the fynbos biome. The models are planned to run on a portable desktop computer with 500 kbytes of memory, extended BASIC language...

  15. Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, M.; von Bloh, W.; Shi, S.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.

    2015-11-01

    In the Mediterranean region, climate and land use change are expected to impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems by warming, reduced rainfall, direct degradation of ecosystems and biodiversity loss. Human population growth and socioeconomic changes, notably on the eastern and southern shores, will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive agro-ecosystem and hydrological model. This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land - LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With the development presented in this study, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture with a comprehensive representation of ecophysiological processes for all vegetation types (natural and agricultural) and in a consistent framework that produces estimates of carbon, agricultural and hydrological variables for the entire Mediterranean basin. This development paves the way for further model extensions aiming at the representation of alternative agro-ecosystems (e.g. agroforestry), and opens the door for a large number of applications in the Mediterranean region, for example assessments of the consequences of land use transitions, the influence of management practices and climate change impacts.

  16. Merging Marine Ecosystem Models and Genomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, V.; Hood, R. R.; Stukel, M. R.; Moran, M. A.; Paul, J. H.; Satinsky, B.; Zielinski, B.; Yager, P. L.

    2015-12-01

    oceanography. One of the grand challenges of oceanography is to develop model techniques to more effectively incorporate genomic information. As one approach, we developed an ecosystem model whose community is determined by randomly assigning functional genes to build each organism's "DNA". Microbes are assigned a size that sets their baseline environmental responses using allometric response cuves. These responses are modified by the costs and benefits conferred by each gene in an organism's genome. The microbes are embedded in a general circulation model where environmental conditions shape the emergent population. This model is used to explore whether organisms constructed from randomized combinations of metabolic capability alone can self-organize to create realistic oceanic biogeochemical gradients. Realistic community size spectra and chlorophyll-a concentrations emerge in the model. The model is run repeatedly with randomly-generated microbial communities and each time realistic gradients in community size spectra, chlorophyll-a, and forms of nitrogen develop. This supports the hypothesis that the metabolic potential of a community rather than the realized species composition is the primary factor setting vertical and horizontal environmental gradients. Vertical distributions of nitrogen and transcripts for genes involved in nitrification are broadly consistent with observations. Modeled gene and transcript abundance for nitrogen cycling and processing of land-derived organic material match observations along the extreme gradients in the Amazon River plume, and they help to explain the factors controlling observed variability.

  17. An ecosystem for Linked Humanities Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rinke; Meroño-Peñuela, A.; Zijdeman, Richard L.; Rijpma, Auke; Dentler, K.; Zandhuis, I.; Adamou, Alessandro; Daga, Enrico; Isaksen, Leif

    2016-01-01

    The main promise of the digital humanities is the ability to perform scholar studies at a much broader scale, and in a much more reusable fashion. The key enabler for such studies is the availability of sufficiently well described data. For the field of socio-economic history, data usually comes in

  18. An Ecosystem for Linked Humanities Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, R.; Meroño-Peñuela, A.; Dentler, K.; Rijpma, A.; Zijdeman, R.; Zandhuis, I.; Sack, H.; Rizzo, G.; Steinmetz, N.; Mladenić, D.; Auer, S.; Lange, C.

    2016-01-01

    The main promise of the digital humanities is the ability to perform scholarly studies at a much broader scale, and in a much more reusable fashion. The key enabler for such studies is the availability of sufficiently well described data. For the field of socio-economic history, data usually comes

  19. Persistence of trophic hotspots and relation to human impacts within an upwelling marine ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santora, Jarrod A; Sydeman, William J; Schroeder, Isaac D; Field, John C; Miller, Rebecca R; Wells, Brian K

    2017-03-01

    Human impacts (e.g., fishing, pollution, and shipping) on pelagic ecosystems are increasing, causing concerns about stresses on marine food webs. Maintaining predator-prey relationships through protection of pelagic hotspots is crucial for conservation and management of living marine resources. Biotic components of pelagic, plankton-based, ecosystems exhibit high variability in abundance in time and space (i.e., extreme patchiness), requiring investigation of persistence of abundance across trophic levels to resolve trophic hotspots. Using a 26-yr record of indicators for primary production, secondary (zooplankton and larval fish), and tertiary (seabirds) consumers, we show distributions of trophic hotspots in the southern California Current Ecosystem result from interactions between a strong upwelling center and a productive retention zone with enhanced nutrients, which concentrate prey and predators across multiple trophic levels. Trophic hotspots also overlap with human impacts, including fisheries extraction of coastal pelagic and groundfish species, as well as intense commercial shipping traffic. Spatial overlap of trophic hotspots with fisheries and shipping increases vulnerability of the ecosystem to localized depletion of forage fish, ship strikes on marine mammals, and pollution. This study represents a critical step toward resolving pelagic areas of high conservation interest for planktonic ecosystems and may serve as a model for other ocean regions where ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning of pelagic ecosystems is warranted. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  20. The Open Source Snowpack modelling ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bavay, Mathias; Fierz, Charles; Egger, Thomas; Lehning, Michael

    2016-04-01

    As a large number of numerical snow models are available, a few stand out as quite mature and widespread. One such model is SNOWPACK, the Open Source model that is developed at the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF. Over the years, various tools have been developed around SNOWPACK in order to expand its use or to integrate additional features. Today, the model is part of a whole ecosystem that has evolved to both offer seamless integration and high modularity so each tool can easily be used outside the ecosystem. Many of these Open Source tools experience their own, autonomous development and are successfully used in their own right in other models and applications. There is Alpine3D, the spatially distributed version of SNOWPACK, that forces it with terrain-corrected radiation fields and optionally with blowing and drifting snow. This model can be used on parallel systems (either with OpenMP or MPI) and has been used for applications ranging from climate change to reindeer herding. There is the MeteoIO pre-processing library that offers fully integrated data access, data filtering, data correction, data resampling and spatial interpolations. This library is now used by several other models and applications. There is the SnopViz snow profile visualization library and application that supports both measured and simulated snow profiles (relying on the CAAML standard) as well as time series. This JavaScript application can be used standalone without any internet connection or served on the web together with simulation results. There is the OSPER data platform effort with a data management service (build on the Global Sensor Network (GSN) platform) as well as a data documenting system (metadata management as a wiki). There are several distributed hydrological models for mountainous areas in ongoing development that require very little information about the soil structure based on the assumption that in step terrain, the most relevant information is

  1. Humus and humility in ecosystem model design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Ed

    2015-04-01

    Prediction is central to science. Empirical scientists couch their predictions as hypotheses and tend to deal with simple models such as regressions, but are modellers as much as are those who combine mechanistic hypotheses into more complex models. There are two main challenges for both groups: to strive for accurate predictions, and to ensure that the work is relevant to wider society. There is a role for blue-sky research, but the multiple environmental changes that characterise the 21st century place an onus on ecosystem scientists to develop tools for understanding environmental change and planning responses. Authors such as Funtowicz and Ravetz (1990) have argued that this situation represents "post-normal" science and that scientists should see themselves more humbly as actors within a societal process rather than as arbiters of truth. Modellers aim for generality, e.g. to accurately simulate the responses of a variety of ecosystems to several different environmental drivers. More accurate predictions can usually be achieved by including more explanatory factors or mechanisms in a model, even though this often results in a less efficient, less parsimonious model. This drives models towards ever-increasing complexity, and many models grow until they are effectively unusable beyond their development team. An alternative way forward is to focus on developing component models. Technologies for integrating dynamic models emphasise the removal of the model engine (algorithms) from code which handles time-stepping and the user interface. Developing components also requires some humility on the part of modellers, since collaboration will be needed to represent the whole system, and also because the idea that a simple component can or should represent the entire understanding of a scientific discipline is often difficult to accept. Policy-makers and land managers typically have questions different to those posed by scientists working within a specialism, and models

  2. Description of the General Equilibrium Model of Ecosystem Services (GEMES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis Warziniack; David Finnoff; Jenny Apriesnig

    2017-01-01

    This paper serves as documentation for the General Equilibrium Model of Ecosystem Services (GEMES). GEMES is a regional computable general equilibrium model that is composed of values derived from natural capital and ecosystem services. It models households, producing sectors, and governments, linked to one another through commodity and factor markets. GEMES was...

  3. A community-based framework for aquatic ecosystem models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trolle, Didde; Hamilton, D. P.; Hipsey, M. R.;

    2012-01-01

    aim to (i) advance collaboration within the aquatic ecosystem modelling community, (ii) enable increased use of models for research, policy and ecosystem-based management, (iii) facilitate a collective framework using common (standardised) code to ensure that model development is incremental, (iv......Here, we communicate a point of departure in the development of aquatic ecosystem models, namely a new community-based framework, which supports an enhanced and transparent union between the collective expertise that exists in the communities of traditional ecologists and model developers. Through...... a literature survey, we document the growing importance of numerical aquatic ecosystem models while also noting the difficulties, up until now, of the aquatic scientific community to make significant advances in these models during the past two decades. Through a common forum for aquatic ecosystem modellers we...

  4. Nonlinearly combined impacts of initial perturbation from human activities and parameter perturbation from climate change on the grassland ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sun

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Human activities and climate change are important factors that affect grassland ecosystems. A new optimization approach, the approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP related to initial and parameter perturbations, is employed to explore the nonlinearly combined impacts of human activities and climate change on a grassland ecosystem using a theoretical grassland model. In our study, it is assumed that the initial perturbations and parameter perturbations are regarded as human activities and climate change, respectively. Numerical results indicate that the climate changes causing the maximum effect in the grassland ecosystem are different under disparate intensities of human activities. This implies the pattern of climate change is very critical to the maintenance or degradation of grassland ecosystem in light of high intensity of human activities and that the grassland ecosystem should be rationally managed when the moisture index decreases. The grassland ecosystem influenced by the nonlinear combination of human activities and climate change undergoes abrupt change, while the grassland ecosystem affected by other types of human activities and climate change fails to show the abrupt change under a certain range of perturbations with the theoretical model. The further numerical analyses also indicate that the growth of living biomass and the evaporation from soil surface shaded by the wilted biomass may be crucial factors contributing to the abrupt change of the grassland equilibrium state within the theoretical model.

  5. A Digital Ecosystems Model of Assessment Feedback on Student Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Stephen; Andersson, Holger; Park, Julian; Maw, Stephen; Crook, Anne; Orsmond, Paul

    2013-01-01

    The term ecosystem has been used to describe complex interactions between living organisms and the physical world. The principles underlying ecosystems can also be applied to complex human interactions in the digital world. As internet technologies make an increasing contribution to teaching and learning practice in higher education, the…

  6. [Ecosystem services supply and consumption and their relationships with human well-being].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Da-Shang; Zheng, Hua; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun

    2013-06-01

    Sustainable ecosystem services supply is the basis of regional sustainable development, and human beings can satisfy and improve their well-being through ecosystem services consumption. To understand the relationships between ecosystem services supply and consumption and human well-being is of vital importance for coordinating the relationships between the conservation of ecosystem services and the improvement of human well-being. This paper summarized the diversity, complexity, and regionality of ecosystem services supply, the diversity and indispensability of ecosystem services consumption, and the multi-dimension, regionality, and various evaluation indices of human well-being, analyzed the uncertainty and multi-scale correlations between ecosystem services supply and consumption, and elaborated the feedback and asynchronous relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being. Some further research directions for the relationships between ecosystem services supply and consumption and human well-being were recommended.

  7. ESTIMATING SUSTAINABILITY OF A SIMPLE HUMAN SOCIETY AND ITS ASSOCIATED ECOSYSTEM USING RESILIENCE AND FISHER INFORMATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustainability applies to integrated systems comprising humans and the rest of nature. To be considered sustainable, human components (society, economy, law, etc.) that interact with ecosystems cannot decrease the resilience of ecosystem structures and functions (trophic linkage...

  8. ESTIMATING SUSTAINABILITY OF A SIMPLE HUMAN SOCIETY AND ITS ASSOCIATED ECOSYSTEM USING RESILIENCE AND FISHER INFORMATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustainability applies to integrated systems comprising humans and the rest of nature. To be considered sustainable, human components (society, economy, law, etc.) that interact with ecosystems cannot decrease the resilience of ecosystem structures and functions (trophic linkage...

  9. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Fernandes, P.M.; Fonseca, T.F.; Gillet, F.; Jöhnsson, A.M.; Merganičová, K.; Netherer, S.; Arpaci, A.; Bontemps, J.D.; Bugmann, H.; González-Olabarria, J.R.; Lasch, P.; Meredieu, C.; Moreira, F.; Schelhaas, M.; Mohren, G.M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling n

  10. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Fernandes, P.M.; Fonseca, T.F.; Gillet, F.; Jöhnsson, A.M.; Merganičová, K.; Netherer, S.; Arpaci, A.; Bontemps, J.D.; Bugmann, H.; González-Olabarria, J.R.; Lasch, P.; Meredieu, C.; Moreira, F.; Schelhaas, M.; Mohren, G.M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling n

  11. Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janssen, Annette B. G.; Arhonditsis, George B.; Beusen, Arthur

    2015-01-01

    Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality m...

  12. Understanding Complex Human Ecosystems: The Case of Ecotourism on Bonaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Abel

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available It is suggested that ecotourism development on the island of Bonaire can be productively understood as a perturbation of a complex human ecosystem. Inputs associated with ecotourism have fueled transformations of the island ecology and sociocultural system. The results of this study indicate that Bonaire's social and economic hierarchy is approaching a new, stable systems state following a 50-yr transition begun by government and industry that stabilized with the appearance of ecotourism development and population growth. Ecotourism can be understood to have "filled in" the middle of the production hierarchy of Bonaire. Interpreted from this perspective, population growth has completed the transformation by expanding into production niches at smaller scales in the production hierarchy. Both a consequence and a cause, ecotourism has transformed the island's social structure and demography. The theory and methods applied in this case study of interdisciplinary research in the field of human ecosystems are also presented.

  13. Ecosystem management via interacting models of political and ecological processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haas, T. C.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The decision to implement environmental protection options is a political one. Political realities may cause a country to not heed the most persuasive scientific analysis of an ecosystem's future health. A predictive understanding of the political processes that result in ecosystem management decisions may help guide ecosystem management policymaking. To this end, this article develops a stochastic, temporal model of how political processes influence and are influenced by ecosystem processes. This model is realized in a system of interacting influence diagrams that model the decision making of a country's political bodies. These decisions interact with a model of the ecosystem enclosed by the country. As an example, a model for Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus management in Kenya is constructed and fitted to decision and ecological data.

  14. Ecological Modeling Guide for Ecosystem Restoration and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    bioenergetics model into a spatially explicit water quality model : Application to menhaden in Chesapeake Bay. Ecological Modelling 221: 1922-1933...ER D C/ EL T R -1 2 -1 8 Environmental Benefits Analysis Program Ecological Modeling Guide for Ecosystem Restoration and Management E nv...distribution is unlimited. Environmental Benefits Analysis Program ERDC/EL TR-12-18 August 2012 Ecological Modeling Guide for Ecosystem Restoration and

  15. A model for an aquatic ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Han Li; Venturino, Ezio

    2016-06-01

    An ecosystem made of nutrients, plants, detritus and dissolved oxygen is presented. Its equilibria are established. Sufficient conditions for the existence of the coexistence equilibrium are derived and its feasibility is discussed in every detail.

  16. Using Radiocarbon to Test Models of Ecosystem Carbon Cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbore, S.; Lin, H.; Randerson, J.

    2007-05-01

    The radiocarbon content of carbon stored in and respired by ecosystems provides a direct measure of ecosystem carbon dynamics that can be directly compared to model predictions. Because carbon cycles through ecosystems on a variety of timescales, the mean age of C in standing biomass and soil organic matter pools is older than the mean age of microbially respired carbon. In turn, each pathway for C transit through ecosystems my respond differently to edaphic conditions; for example, soil organic matter mean age is controlled by factors affecting stabilization of C on very long timescales, such as mineralogy, while a factor like litter quality that effects decomposition rates reflects vegetation and climate characteristics. We compare the radiocarbon signature of heterotrophically respired CO2 across a number of ecosystems with models predicted using the CASA ecosystem model. The major controls of microbially respired CO2 from ecosystems include the residence time of C in living plant pools (i.e. the age of C in litter inputs to soil) and factors that control decomposition rates (litter quality and climate). Major differences between model and measured values at low latitudes are related to how woody debris pools are treated differently in models and measurements. The time lag between photosynthesis and respiration is a key ecosystem property that defines its potential to store or release carbon given variations in annual net primary production. Radiocarbon provides a rare case where models can be directly compared with measurements to provide a test of this parameter.

  17. Urban transitions: on urban resilience and human-dominated ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernstson, Henrik; van der Leeuw, Sander E; Redman, Charles L; Meffert, Douglas J; Davis, George; Alfsen, Christine; Elmqvist, Thomas

    2010-12-01

    Urbanization is a global multidimensional process paired with increasing uncertainty due to climate change, migration of people, and changes in the capacity to sustain ecosystem services. This article lays a foundation for discussing transitions in urban governance, which enable cities to navigate change, build capacity to withstand shocks, and use experimentation and innovation in face of uncertainty. Using the three concrete case cities--New Orleans, Cape Town, and Phoenix--the article analyzes thresholds and cross-scale interactions, and expands the scale at which urban resilience has been discussed by integrating the idea from geography that cities form part of "system of cities" (i.e., they cannot be seen as single entities). Based on this, the article argues that urban governance need to harness social networks of urban innovation to sustain ecosystem services, while nurturing discourses that situate the city as part of regional ecosystems. The article broadens the discussion on urban resilience while challenging resilience theory when addressing human-dominated ecosystems. Practical examples of harnessing urban innovation are presented, paired with an agenda for research and policy.

  18. Comparative biogeochemistry-ecosystem-human interactions on dynamic continental margins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Lisa A.; Liu, Kon-Kee; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Breitburg, Denise L.; Cloern, James; Deutsch, Curtis; Giani, Michele; Goffart, Anne; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Lachkar, Zouhair; Limburg, Karin; Liu, Su-Mei; Montes, Enrique; Naqvi, Wajih; Ragueneau, Olivier; Rabouille, Christophe; Sarkar, Santosh Kumar; Swaney, Dennis P.; Wassman, Paul; Wishner, Karen F.

    2014-01-01

    The ocean’s continental margins face strong and rapid change, forced by a combination of direct human activity, anthropogenic CO2-induced climate change, and natural variability. Stimulated by discussions in Goa, India at the IMBER IMBIZO III, we (1) provide an overview of the drivers of biogeochemical variation and change on margins, (2) compare temporal trends in hydrographic and biogeochemical data across different margins (3) review ecosystem responses to these changes, (4) highlight the importance of margin time series for detecting and attributing change and (5) examine societal responses to changing margin biogeochemistry and ecosystems. We synthesize information over a wide range of margin settings in order to identify the commonalities and distinctions among continental margin ecosystems. Key drivers of biogeochemical variation include long-term climate cycles, CO2-induced warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, as well as sea level rise, eutrophication, hydrologic and water cycle alteration, changing land use, fishing, and species invasion. Ecosystem responses are complex and impact major margin services including primary production, fisheries production, nutrient cycling, shoreline protection, chemical buffering, and biodiversity. Despite regional differences, the societal consequences of these changes are unarguably large and mandate coherent actions to reduce, mitigate and adapt to multiple stressors on continental margins.

  19. AQUATOX coupled foodweb model for ecosystem risk assessment of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in lake ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Jingling

    2014-08-01

    The AQUATOX model considers the direct toxic effects of chemicals and their indirect effects through foodwebs. For this study, the AQUATOX model was applied to evaluating the ecological risk of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in a highly anthropogenically disturbed lake-Baiyangdian Lake. Calibration and validation results indicated that the model can adequately describe the dynamics of 18 biological populations. Sensitivity analysis results suggested that the model is highly sensitive to temperature limitation. PBDEs risk estimate results demonstrate that estimated risk for natural ecosystems cannot be fully explained by single species toxicity data alone. The AQUATOX model could provide a good basis in ascertaining ecological protection levels of "chemicals of concern" for aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, AQUATOX can potentially be used to provide necessary information corresponding to early warning and rapid forecasting of pollutant transport and fate in the management of chemicals that put aquatic ecosystems at risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Complexity of human and ecosystem interactions in an agricultural landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coupe, Richard H.; Barlow, Jeannie R.; Capel, Paul D.

    2012-01-01

    The complexity of human interaction in the commercial agricultural landscape and the resulting impacts on the ecosystem services of water quality and quantity is largely ignored by the current agricultural paradigm that maximizes crop production over other ecosystem services. Three examples at different spatial scales (local, regional, and global) are presented where human and ecosystem interactions in a commercial agricultural landscape adversely affect water quality and quantity in unintended ways in the Delta of northwestern Mississippi. In the first example, little to no regulation of groundwater use for irrigation has caused declines in groundwater levels resulting in loss of baseflow to streams and threatening future water supply. In the second example, federal policy which subsidizes corn for biofuel production has encouraged many producers to switch from cotton to corn, which requires more nutrients and water, counter to national efforts to reduce nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico and exacerbating groundwater level declines. The third example is the wholesale adoption of a system for weed control that relies on a single chemical, initially providing many benefits and ultimately leading to the widespread occurrence of glyphosate and its degradates in Delta streams and necessitating higher application rates of glyphosate as well as the use of other herbicides due to increasing weed resistance. Although these examples are specific to the Mississippi Delta, analogous situations exist throughout the world and point to the need for change in how we grow our food, fuel, and fiber, and manage our soil and water resources.

  1. Mapping and modelling ecosystem services for science, policy and practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burkhard, B.; Crossman, N.; Nedkov, S.; Petz, K.; Alkemade, R.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem services are a significant research and policy topic and there are many modelling and mapping approaches aimed at understanding the stocks, demands and flows of ecosystem services on different spatial and temporal scales. The integration of geo-biophysical processes and structure

  2. Mapping and modelling ecosystem services for science, policy and practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burkhard, B.; Crossman, N.; Nedkov, S.; Petz, K.; Alkemade, R.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem services are a significant research and policy topic and there are many modelling and mapping approaches aimed at understanding the stocks, demands and flows of ecosystem services on different spatial and temporal scales. The integration of geo-biophysical processes and structure assessmen

  3. Perception, acquisition and use of ecosystem services: human behavior, and ecosystem management and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley T. Asah; Anne D. Guerry; Dale J. Blahna; Joshua J. Lawler

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystem services, fundamental to livelihoods and well-being, are reshaping environmental management and policy. However, the behavioral dimensions of ecosystem services and the responses of ordinary people to the management of those services, is less well understood. The ecosystem services framework lends itself to understanding the relationship between ecosystems...

  4. Quantitative versus qualitative modeling: a complementary approach in ecosystem study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondavalli, C; Favilla, S; Bodini, A

    2009-02-01

    Natural disturbance or human perturbation act upon ecosystems by changing some dynamical parameters of one or more species. Foreseeing these modifications is necessary before embarking on an intervention: predictions may help to assess management options and define hypothesis for interventions. Models become valuable tools for studying and making predictions only when they capture types of interactions and their magnitude. Quantitative models are more precise and specific about a system, but require a large effort in model construction. Because of this very often ecological systems remain only partially specified and one possible approach to their description and analysis comes from qualitative modelling. Qualitative models yield predictions as directions of change in species abundance but in complex systems these predictions are often ambiguous, being the result of opposite actions exerted on the same species by way of multiple pathways of interactions. Again, to avoid such ambiguities one needs to know the intensity of all links in the system. One way to make link magnitude explicit in a way that can be used in qualitative analysis is described in this paper and takes advantage of another type of ecosystem representation: ecological flow networks. These flow diagrams contain the structure, the relative position and the connections between the components of a system, and the quantity of matter flowing along every connection. In this paper it is shown how these ecological flow networks can be used to produce a quantitative model similar to the qualitative counterpart. Analyzed through the apparatus of loop analysis this quantitative model yields predictions that are by no means ambiguous, solving in an elegant way the basic problem of qualitative analysis. The approach adopted in this work is still preliminary and we must be careful in its application.

  5. Land-use planning for nearshore ecosystem services—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin

    2011-01-01

    The 2,500 miles of shoreline and nearshore areas of Puget Sound, Washington, provide multiple benefits to people—"ecosystem services"—including important fishing, shellfishing, and recreation industries. To help resource managers plan for expected growth in coming decades, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center has developed the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM). Scenarios of urban growth and shoreline modifications serve as model inputs to develop alternative futures of important nearshore features such as water quality and beach habitats. Model results will support regional long-term planning decisions for the Puget Sound region.

  6. From Bacteria to Whales: Using Functional Size Spectra to Model Marine Ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, Julia L; Heneghan, Ryan F; Everett, Jason D; Trebilco, Rowan; Richardson, Anthony J

    2017-03-01

    Size-based ecosystem modeling is emerging as a powerful way to assess ecosystem-level impacts of human- and environment-driven changes from individual-level processes. These models have evolved as mechanistic explanations for observed regular patterns of abundance across the marine size spectrum hypothesized to hold from bacteria to whales. Fifty years since the first size spectrum measurements, we ask how far have we come? Although recent modeling studies capture an impressive range of sizes, complexity, and real-world applications, ecosystem coverage is still only partial. We describe how this can be overcome by unifying functional traits with size spectra (which we call functional size spectra) and highlight the key knowledge gaps that need to be filled to model ecosystems from bacteria to whales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Northern Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Using Coupled Models and Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranson, K. J.; Sun, G.; Knox, R. G.; Levine, E. R.; Weishampel, J. F.; Fifer, S. T.

    1999-01-01

    Forest ecosystem dynamics modeling, remote sensing data analysis, and a geographical information system (GIS) were used together to determine the possible growth and development of a northern forest in Maine, USA. Field measurements and airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data were used to produce maps of forest cover type and above ground biomass. These forest attribute maps, along with a conventional soils map, were used to identify the initial conditions for forest ecosystem model simulations. Using this information along with ecosystem model results enabled the development of predictive maps of forest development. The results obtained were consistent with observed forest conditions and expected successional trajectories. The study demonstrated that ecosystem models might be used in a spatial context when parameterized and used with georeferenced data sets.

  8. Coastal Ecosystem Integrated Compartment Model (ICM): Modeling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meselhe, E. A.; White, E. D.; Reed, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Integrated Compartment Model (ICM) was developed as part of the 2017 Coastal Master Plan modeling effort. It is a comprehensive and numerical hydrodynamic model coupled to various geophysical process models. Simplifying assumptions related to some of the flow dynamics are applied to increase the computational efficiency of the model. The model can be used to provide insights about coastal ecosystems and evaluate restoration strategies. It builds on existing tools where possible and incorporates newly developed tools where necessary. It can perform decadal simulations (~ 50 years) across the entire Louisiana coast. It includes several improvements over the approach used to support the 2012 Master Plan, such as: additional processes in the hydrology, vegetation, wetland and barrier island morphology subroutines, increased spatial resolution, and integration of previously disparate models into a single modeling framework. The ICM includes habitat suitability indices (HSIs) to predict broad spatial patterns of habitat change, and it provides an additional integration to a dynamic fish and shellfish community model which quantitatively predicts potential changes in important fishery resources. It can be used to estimate the individual and cumulative effects of restoration and protection projects on the landscape, including a general estimate of water levels associated with flooding. The ICM is also used to examine possible impacts of climate change and future environmental scenarios (e.g. precipitation, Eustatic sea level rise, subsidence, tropical storms, etc.) on the landscape and on the effectiveness of restoration projects. The ICM code is publically accessible, and coastal restoration and protection groups interested in planning-level modeling are encouraged to explore its utility as a computationally efficient tool to examine ecosystem response to future physical or ecological changes, including the implementation of restoration and protection strategies.

  9. The role of ecological models in linking ecological risk assessment to ecosystem services in agroecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galic, Nika; Schmolke, Amelie; Forbes, Valery; Baveco, Hans; van den Brink, Paul J

    2012-01-15

    Agricultural practices are essential for sustaining the human population, but at the same time they can directly disrupt ecosystem functioning. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) aims to estimate possible adverse effects of human activities on ecosystems and their parts. Current ERA practices, however, incorporate very little ecology and base the risk estimates on the results of standard tests with several standard species. The main obstacles for a more ecologically relevant ERA are the lack of clear protection goals and the inherent complexity of ecosystems that is hard to approach empirically. In this paper, we argue that the ecosystem services framework offers an opportunity to define clear and ecologically relevant protection goals. At the same time, ecological models provide the tools to address ecological complexity to the degree needed to link measurement endpoints and ecosystem services, and to quantify service provision and possible adverse effects from human activities. We focus on the ecosystem services relevant for agroecosystem functioning, including pollination, biocontrol and eutrophication effects and present modeling studies relevant for quantification of each of the services. The challenges of the ecosystem services approach are discussed as well as the limitations of ecological models in the context of ERA. A broad, multi-stakeholder dialog is necessary to aid the definition of protection goals in terms of services delivered by ecosystems and their parts. The need to capture spatio-temporal dynamics and possible interactions among service providers pose challenges for ecological models as a basis for decision making. However, we argue that both fields are advancing quickly and can prove very valuable in achieving more ecologically relevant ERA. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Ecological and Social Dynamics in Simple Models of Ecosystem Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Brock

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available Simulation models were developed to explore and illustrate dynamics of socioecological systems. The ecosystem is a lake subject to phosphorus pollution. Phosphorus flows from agriculture to upland soils, to surface waters, where it cycles between water and sediments. The ecosystem is multistable, and moves among domains of attraction depending on the history of pollutant inputs. The alternative states yield different economic benefits. Agents form expectations about ecosystem dynamics, markets, and/or the actions of managers, and choose levels of pollutant inputs accordingly. Agents have heterogeneous beliefs and/or access to information. Their aggregate behavior determines the total rate of pollutant input. As the ecosystem changes, agents update their beliefs and expectations about the world they co-create, and modify their actions accordingly. For a wide range of scenarios, we observe irregular oscillations among ecosystem states and patterns of agent behavior. These oscillations resemble some features of the adaptive cycle of panarchy theory.

  11. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model ecosystem services: A systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francesconi, Wendy; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Pérez-Miñana, Elena; Willcock, Simon P.; Quintero, Marcela

    2016-04-01

    SWAT, a watershed modeling tool has been proposed to help quantify ecosystem services. The concept of ecosystem services incorporates the collective benefits natural systems provide primarily to human beings. It is becoming increasingly important to track the impact that human activities have on the environment in order to determine its resilience and sustainability. The objectives of this paper are to provide an overview of efforts using SWAT to quantify ecosystem services, to determine the model's capability examining various types of services, and to describe the approach used by various researchers. A literature review was conducted to identify studies in which SWAT was explicitly used for quantifying ecosystem services in terms of provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural aspects. A total of 44 peer reviewed publications were identified. Most of these used SWAT to quantify provisioning services (34%), regulating services (27%), or a combination of both (25%). While studies using SWAT for evaluating ecosystem services are limited (approximately 1% of SWAT's peered review publications), and usage (vs. potential) of services by beneficiaries is a current model limitation, the available literature sets the stage for the continuous development and potential of SWAT as a methodological framework for quantifying ecosystem services to assist in decision-making.

  12. Review of Human Study on Mountain Ecosystems%山地生态系统人文研究综述

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    方一平

    2001-01-01

    Author analysed the background of human study on mountain ecosystems, which cover MAB_6 project initia tive, focus on aspects, activities framwork.and the major fields of human study on mountain ecosystems since 1971. Of all fields, four mafor aspects studyed wer e set forth as follows:(1)The theory of model of human study on mountain ecosyst ems.(2)The mechanism and application between human and mountain ecosystem intera ction, Which include the study of impacts, relationships, pov erty relief, and sustainable development in mountain regions. (3)The study of pr oceeding between human and mountain ecosystems interaction. (4)The study of reso urces management in mountain regions, Which cover natural, social and economic r esources. (5)The study of role of women in mountain ecosystem protection.Finally , the differences between domestic and oversea in the aspects of human study of mountain ecosystem are discussed as a focal point, which cover the fiel ds of study,the levels of study the methods of study and schematic ideas of st udy.%回顾和评述了近二十多年来国外山地生态系统人文研 究的相关领域。同时对比分析了我国与国外在该领域的研究内容、层次、方法和观念方面的 差异。

  13. Coupled economic-ecological models for ecosystem-based fishery management: Exploration of trade-offs between model complexity and management needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thunberg, Eric; Holland, Dan; Nielsen, J. Rasmus

    2012-01-01

    to incorporate linkages between ecosystem components and processes. While more complex ecosystem models may provide greater insight into how management decisions and human actions propagate through the ecosystem and impact the value of ecosystem services, the resources and information required to develop......Ecosystem based fishery management has moved beyond rhetorical statements calling for a more holistic approach to resource management, to implementing decisions on resource use that are compatible with goals of maintaining ecosystem health and resilience. Coupled economic-ecological models...... that bring the multiple disciplines of economics, ecology, and stock assessment into integrated ecosystem models. The theme session was designed to be an extension of a series of workshops and theme sessions organized by the SGIMM, but highlighted the economic component of coupled models. Although economic...

  14. Biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial ecosystems - Modeling, measurement, and remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, D. L.; Matson, P. A.; Lawless, J. G.; Aber, J. D.; Vitousek, P. M.

    1985-01-01

    The use of modeling, remote sensing, and measurements to characterize the pathways and to measure the rate of biogeochemical cycling in forest ecosystems is described. The application of the process-level model to predict processes in intact forests and ecosystems response to disturbance is examined. The selection of research areas from contrasting climate regimes and sites having a fertility gradient in that regime is discussed, and the sites studied are listed. The use of remote sensing in determining leaf area index and canopy biochemistry is analyzed. Nitrous oxide emission is investigated by using a gas measurement instrument. Future research projects, which include studying the influence of changes on nutrient cycling in ecosystems and the effect of pollutants on the ecosystems, are discussed.

  15. Evaluating the governance model of hardware-dependent software ecosystems - a case study of the axis ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per

    2014-01-01

    specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) software ecosystem. We conduct an exploratory case study collecting data from observations and interviews......Ecosystem governance becomes gradually more relevant for a set of companies or actors characterized by symbiotic relations evolved on the top of a technological platform, i.e. a software ecosystem. In this study, we focus on the governance of a hardware-dependent software ecosystem. More...... and apply the governance model for prevention and improvement of the software ecosystem health proposed by Jansen and Cusumano. Our results reveal that although the governance actions do not address the majority of their governance model, the ADP ecosystem is considered a growing ecosystem providing...

  16. Ecosystem services sustainability in the Mediterranean Sea: assessment of status and trends using multiple modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Macías, Diego; Druon, Jean-Noël; Zulian, Grazia

    2016-09-01

    Mediterranean ecosystems support important processes and functions that bring direct benefits to human society. Yet, marine ecosystem services are usually overlooked due to the challenges in identifying and quantifying them. This paper proposes the application of several biophysical and ecosystem modelling approaches to assess spatially and temporally the sustainable use and supply of selected marine ecosystem services. Such services include food provision, water purification, coastal protection, lifecycle maintenance and recreation, focusing on the Mediterranean region. Overall, our study found a higher number of decreasing than increasing trends in the natural capacity of the ecosystems to provide marine and coastal services, while in contrast the opposite was observed to be true for the realised flow of services to humans. Such a study paves the way towards an effective support for Blue Growth and the European maritime policies, although little attention is paid to the quantification of marine ecosystem services in this context. We identify a key challenge of integrating biophysical and socio-economic models as a necessary step to further this research.

  17. Ecosystem services sustainability in the Mediterranean Sea: assessment of status and trends using multiple modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Macías, Diego; Druon, Jean-Noël; Zulian, Grazia

    2016-01-01

    Mediterranean ecosystems support important processes and functions that bring direct benefits to human society. Yet, marine ecosystem services are usually overlooked due to the challenges in identifying and quantifying them. This paper proposes the application of several biophysical and ecosystem modelling approaches to assess spatially and temporally the sustainable use and supply of selected marine ecosystem services. Such services include food provision, water purification, coastal protection, lifecycle maintenance and recreation, focusing on the Mediterranean region. Overall, our study found a higher number of decreasing than increasing trends in the natural capacity of the ecosystems to provide marine and coastal services, while in contrast the opposite was observed to be true for the realised flow of services to humans. Such a study paves the way towards an effective support for Blue Growth and the European maritime policies, although little attention is paid to the quantification of marine ecosystem services in this context. We identify a key challenge of integrating biophysical and socio-economic models as a necessary step to further this research. PMID:27686533

  18. Human transformations of the Wadden Sea ecosystem through time : a synthesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lotze, H.K.; Reise, K; Worm, B.; van Beusekom, J.; Busch, M.; Ehlers, A.; Heinrich, D.; Hoffman, R.C.; Holm, P.; Jensen, C.; Knottnerus, O.S.; Langhanki, N.; Prummel, W.; Vollmer, M.; Wolff, W.J.

    Todays Wadden Sea is a heavily human-altered ecosystem. Shaped by natural forces since its origin 7,500 years ago, humans gradually gained dominance in influencing ecosystem structure and functioning. Here, we reconstruct the timeline of human impacts and the history of ecological changes in the

  19. Human transformations of the Wadden Sea ecosystem through time : a synthesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lotze, HK; Reise, K; Worm, B; van Beusekom, J; Busch, M; Ehlers, A; Heinrich, D; Hoffmann, RC; Holm, P; Jensen, C; Knottnerus, OS; Langhanki, N; Prummel, W; Vollmer, M; Wolff, WJ

    2005-01-01

    Todays Wadden Sea is a heavily human-altered ecosystem. Shaped by natural forces since its origin 7,500 years ago, humans gradually gained dominance in influencing ecosystem structure and functioning. Here, we reconstruct the timeline of human impacts and the history of ecological changes in the Wad

  20. Exploring spatial change and gravity center movement for ecosystem services value using a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and gravity model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yingbin; Chen, Youqi; Tang, Huajun; Yao, Yanmin; Yang, Peng; Chen, Zhongxin

    2011-04-01

    Spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation and change is a newly developing area of research in the field of ecology. Using the Beijing region as a study area, the authors have developed a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and implemented this to quantify and spatially differentiate ecosystem services value at 1-km grid resolution. A gravity model was developed to trace spatial change in the total ecosystem services value of the Beijing study area from a holistic point of view. Study results show that the total value of ecosystem services for the study area decreased by 19.75% during the period 1996-2006 (3,226.2739 US$×10(6) in 1996, 2,589.0321 US$×10(6) in 2006). However, 27.63% of the total area of the Beijing study area increased in ecosystem services value. Spatial differences in ecosystem services values for both 1996 and 2006 are very clear. The center of gravity of total ecosystem services value for the study area moved 32.28 km northwestward over the 10 years due to intensive human intervention taking place in southeast Beijing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should pay greater attention to ecological protection under conditions of rapid socio-economic development and increase the area of green belt in the southeastern part of Beijing.

  1. The ecosystem models used for dose assessments in SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila, Rodolfo [Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden)

    2006-11-15

    The estimation of doses to humans in the main scenarios considered in SR-Can is carried out by multiplying the radionuclide releases to the biosphere by Landscape Dose Factors (LDF), which provide estimates of doses incurred by unit releases of activity of a specific radionuclide to the landscape. The landscape models considered in deriving the LDFs consist of a set of interconnected ecosystem models of different types, including aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Aquatic ecosystems comprise the sea, lakes and rivers. The terrestrial ecosystems include agricultural lands, forests and mires. In this report dose conversion factor for each individual ecosystem are reported. Two release cases are considered in the report: a constant unit release rate during 10,000 years and a pulse release, i.e. a unit release during one year. For deriving the LDF values, at each considered time period an ecosystem model is assigned to each landscape object, according to the projected succession of ecosystems in the objects. The applied ecosystem models have been described elsewhere, but some modifications have been made which are described in this report. The main modifications applied to the models are to consider releases through bottom sediments and to consider upstream fluxes for the estimation of the fluxes of radionuclides between the different landscape objects. To facilitate calculations of the radionuclide concentrations in the ingested food, aggregated transfer factors are derived for each ecosystem type. These relate the radionuclide concentrations in the edible carbon production in different ecosystem types to the radionuclide concentrations in the main environmental substrates of the ecosystems, i.e. the water in aquatic ecosystems and the soil in the terrestrial ecosystems. The report provides a description of the methods applied for the derivation of aggregated transfer factors for each ecosystem type and for irrigation. These factors are applicable for situations of

  2. AN ECOSYSTEM MODEL OF FISHERIES AND NUTRIENT ENRICHMENT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Thanh Viet; Vestergaard, Niels

    2009-01-01

      Economic models of fishery largely ignore the linkages to lower trophic levels. In particular, environmental data and other bottom-up information is widely disregarded. Nor are changes in physical environment (bottom-up) alongside both exogenous and endogenous environmental effects included...... in the general ecosystem models. The objectives of this paper are modeling the impacts of nutrient enrichment on fisheries; particularly the impacts on consumer stocks and the fisheries based on these stocks are presented. We consider an aquatic ecosystem with four components: producers (autotrophs), consumers...

  3. Assessment of Urban Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Weight Extension Decision Model in Urban Agglomeration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Yang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban ecosystem health evaluation can assist in sustainable ecological management at a regional level. This study examined urban agglomeration ecosystem health in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River with entropy weight and extension theories. The model overcomes information omissions and subjectivity problems in the evaluation process of urban ecosystem health. Results showed that human capital and education, economic development level as well as urban infrastructure have a significant effect on the health states of urban agglomerations. The health status of the urban agglomeration’s ecosystem was not optimistic in 2013. The majority of the cities were unhealthy or verging on unhealthy, accounting for 64.52% of the total number of cities in the urban agglomeration. The regional differences of the 31 cities’ ecosystem health are significant. The cause originated from an imbalance in economic development and the policy guidance of city development. It is necessary to speed up the integration process to promote coordinated regional development. The present study will aid us in understanding and advancing the health situation of the urban ecosystem in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and will provide an efficient urban ecosystem health evaluation method that can be used in other areas.

  4. Toward Ecosystemic Business Models in the Context of Industrial Internet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marika Miriam Iivari

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study explores business models within a particular domain of Industrial Internet. Design/Methodology/Approach: Building from theory, this study is conceptual in nature. Findings: This paper presents a business model framework for understanding the dynamics of value co-creation and co-capture from lifecycle and ecosystem configuration point of view. Research limitations/implications: This study stresses the need to understand how the integrated, co-dependent processes of value co-creation and co-capture influence on business models of individual firms in co-evolving business ecosystems. Practical implications: To fully benefit from the mutually connected opportunities enabled by IoT, it is important for firms to position themselves within the ecosystem in terms of the stage of product or service life cycle as well as the scale and scope of ecosystem configuration. Originality/value: The originality of this research thus relates to expanding the business model literature from ecosystemic perspective.

  5. Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooij, W.M.; Trolle, D.; Jeppesen, E.; Arhonditsis, G.; Belolipetsky, P.; Chitamwebwa, D.B.R.; Degermendzhy, A.G.; DeAngelis, D.L.; De Senerpont Domis, L.N.; Downing, A.S.; Elliott, J.A.; Fragoso Jr., C.R.; Gaedke, U.; Genova, S.N.; Gulati, R.D.; Håkanson, L.; Hamilton, D.P.; Hipsey, M.R.; ‘t Hoen, P.J.; Hülsmann, S.; Los, F.J.; Makler-Pick, V.; Petzoldt, T.; Prokopkin, I.; Rinke, K.; Schep, S.A.; Tominaga, K.; Van Dam, A.A.; van Nes, E.H.; Wells, S.A.; Janse, J.H.

    2010-01-01

    A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others (‘reinventing t

  6. Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooij, W.M.; Trolle, D.; Jeppesen, E.; Arhonditsis, G.; Belolipetsky, P.V.; Chitamwebwa, D.B.R.; Degermendzhy, A.G.; DeAngelis, D.L.; Domis, L.N.D.; Downing, A.S.; Elliott, J.A.; Fragoso, C.R.; Gaedke, U.; Genova, S.N.; Gulati, R.D.; Hakanson, L.; Hamilton, D.P.; Hipsey, M.R.; Hoen, 't J.; Hulsmann, S.; Los, F.H.; Makler-Pick, V.; Petzoldt, T.; Prokopkin, I.G.; Rinke, K.; Schep, S.A.; Tominaga, K.; Dam, van A.A.; Nes, van E.H.; Wells, S.A.; Janse, J.H.

    2010-01-01

    A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing t

  7. Ecosystem Functions Connecting Contributions from Ecosystem Services to Human Wellbeing in a Mangrove System in Northern Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Hwey-Lian; Lin, Hsing-Juh; Shih, Shang-Shu; Chen, Chang-Po

    2015-06-09

    The present study examined a mangrove ecosystem in northern Taiwan to determine how the various components of ecosystem function, ecosystem services and human wellbeing are connected. The overall contributions of mangrove services to specific components of human wellbeing were also assessed. A network was developed and evaluated by an expert panel consisting of hydrologists, ecologists, and experts in the field of culture, landscape or architecture. The results showed that supporting habitats was the most important function to human wellbeing, while water quality, habitable climate, air quality, recreational opportunities, and knowledge systems were services that were strongly linked to human welfare. Security of continuous supply of services appeared to be the key to a comfortable life. From a bottom-up and top-down perspective, knowledge systems (a service) were most supported by ecosystem functions, while the security of continuous supply of services (wellbeing) had affected the most services. In addition, the overall benefits of mangrove services to human prosperity concentrated on mental health, security of continuous supply of services, and physical health.

  8. The distribution of persistent organic pollutants in a trophically complex Antarctic ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Michael L.; Bengtson Nash, Susan M.; Hawker, Darryl W.; Shaw, Emily C.; Cropp, Roger A.

    2017-06-01

    Despite Antarctica's isolation from human population centres, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are transported there via long range atmospheric transport and subsequently cold-trapped. The challenging nature of working in the Antarctic environment greatly limits our ability to monitor POP concentrations and understand the processes that govern the distribution of POPs in Antarctic ecosystems. Here we couple a dynamic, trophically complex biological model with a fugacity model to investigate the distribution of hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in a near-shore Antarctic ecosystem. Using this model we examine the steady-state, and annual cycle of HCB concentration in the atmosphere, ocean, sediment, detritus, and 21 classes of biota that span from primary producers to apex predators. The scope and trophic resolution of our model allows us to examine POP pathways through the ecosystem. In our model the main pathway of HCB to upper trophic species is via pelagic communities, with relatively little via benthic communities. Using a dynamic ecosystem model also allows us to examine the seasonal and potential climate change induced changes in POP distribution. We show that there is a large annual cycle in concentration in the planktonic communities, which may have implications for biomagnification factors calculated from observations. We also examine the direct effects of increasing temperature on the redistribution of HCB in a changing climate and find that it is likely minor compared to other indirect effects, such as changes in atmospheric circulation, sea ice dynamics, and changes to the ecosystem itself.

  9. Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooij, Wolf M.; Trolle, Dennis; Jeppesen, Erik; Arhonditsis, George; Belolipetsky, Pavel V.; Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B.R.; Degermendzhy, Andrey G.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Domis, Lisette N. De Senerpont; Downing, Andrea S.; Elliott, J. Alex; Ruberto, Carlos Ruberto; Gaedke, Ursula; Genova, Svetlana N.; Gulati, Ramesh D.; Hakanson, Lars; Hamilton, David P.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hoen, Jochem 't; Hulsmann, Stephan; Los, F. Hans; Makler-Pick, Vardit; Petzoldt, Thomas; Prokopkin, Igor G.; Rinke, Karsten; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Tominaga, Koji; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Wells, Scott A.; Janse, Jan H.

    2010-01-01

    A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative

  10. Mass-balance ecosystem model of the East China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jiahua Cheng; William W.L. Cheung; Tony J. Pitcher

    2009-01-01

    Using the Ecopath mass-balance trophodynamic model, this paper analyzed the trophic levels, flows, food web structure and ecosys-tem maturity of the East China Sea, and identified ecologically important functional groups in the ecosystem. The model is based on fishery resource surveys of the East China Sea in 2000, studies on diet composition and global databases such as FishBase and the Sea Around Us Project Database. The results showed that trophic levels of the functional groups are between 2.86 and 4.37, with an average of 3.32. Anchocy (Engraulis japonicus), small fishes and benthic crustaceans such as shrimps and crabs are important groups in terms of the trophic structure and flow dynamics in the East China Sea. Energy flows of most groups are between specific trophic levels, except file fish (Thamnaconus spp.), pomfret (Pampus spp.) and cephalopods. Trophic transfer efficiency of levels Ⅱ,Ⅲ,Ⅳ and more than Ⅴ are 11.8%, 21.1%, 17.4% and 22.1-22.5%, respectively. Effects of fishery-the largest 'consumer' of the ecosystem -are much stronger than those exerted by biological groups in the system. The model suggests that the current fishery can further reduce the complexity of the ecosystem. Evaluations of the system indices suggest that maturity of the ecosystem is low. The conclusion of this model indicates that it was the overfishing that caused the ecosystem of the East China Sea declined, which should be taken into account as a critical reference for fisheries management in the future.

  11. Linking hydrology, ecosystem function, and livelihood sustainability in African papyrus wetlands using a Bayesian Network Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dam, A.; Gettel, G. M.; Kipkemboi, J.; Rahman, M. M.

    2011-12-01

    reduced to about 40% and in the wet season increased to about 85%. Both ecosystem functions and livelihood sustainability were most sensitive to flooding and the human pressure, notably the area of crop conversion, grazing pressure, and papyrus harvest. Flooded conditions limit cropping, livestock herding and vegetation harvesting but have a strong positive effect on ecosystem function. Preliminary results suggest that the effects of economic and policy development on ecosystem function and livelihood sustainability were negligible, but more data on these aspects will be included in further model development. The advantage of this modeling approach, which integrates data from hydrological, ecological, and socio-economic studies, is that it highlights the relative effect of hydrologic conditions and socio-economic pressures on ecosystem function. This model is static, however, with long-term changes in climate and exploitation levels superimposed on seasonal hydrology dynamics. Further work should address this issue as well as further constrain probabilities at each node as field research continues.

  12. Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

    1998-03-01

    The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man. 42 refs, 3 tabs, 9 figs.

  13. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariska Weijerman

    Full Text Available Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1 ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2 trophic level of the community, 3 biomass of apex predators, 4 biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5 total biomass of living groups and 6 the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations, climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with

  14. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Kaplan, Isaac C; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, Wolf M; Brainard, Russell E

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP) and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1) ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2) trophic level of the community, 3) biomass of apex predators, 4) biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5) total biomass of living groups and 6) the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations), climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with other drivers

  15. Modelling turnover of Cs-137 in two subarctic salmonid ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordlinder, S.; Bergstroem, U. (Studsvik AB, Ecosafe, Nykoeping (Sweden)); Hammar, J. (Institute of Freshwater Research, Drottningholm (Sweden) Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Zoology); Notter, M. (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Solna (Sweden))

    1993-01-01

    The turnover of cesium-137 was simulated in two categories of subarctic, alpine lake ecosystems - a natural lake with Gammarus lacustris as major fish prey and a lake reservoir with introduced Mysis relicta as a new fish-food organism. The resulting concentrations of Cs-137 in two salmonid species - Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) - were calculated using a multi-compartment model. Observed data were taken from a major case study evaluating the distribution, pathways and major transport mechanisms of Chernobyl cesium through northern lake ecosystems in 1986-90. The aim of this study was to design a specific conceptual model for calculation of the levels of Cs-137 in fish from simple lake ecosystems, which could be adopted for other more complex types of lakes. A multi-compartment model of the ecosystem was designed and the equations were solved with the BIOPATH-code. The uncertainty of the results due to the uncertainty of input values was examined using the PRISM-system. The model gave good correlations to measured data for Cs-137 in water, zooplankton, macro invertebrates and fish in both lakes. The predicted levels in sediments were, however, considerably lower than the observed values. The inflow of Cs-137 from the drainage area to the two lakes was identified as the main contributor to the uncertainty of the long-term prognoses. 33 refs, 6 figs, 3 tabs.

  16. Biogeochemical modelling vs. tree-ring data - comparison of forest ecosystem productivity estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Maša; Barcza, Zoltán; Hidy, Dóra; Paladinić, Elvis; Kern, Anikó; Marjanović, Hrvoje

    2017-04-01

    Forest ecosystems are sensitive to environmental changes as well as human-induce disturbances, therefore process-based models with integrated management modules represent valuable tool for estimating and forecasting forest ecosystem productivity under changing conditions. Biogeochemical model Biome-BGC simulates carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes, and it is widely used for different terrestrial ecosystems. It was modified and parameterised by many researchers in the past to meet the specific local conditions. In this research, we used recently published improved version of the model Biome-BGCMuSo (BBGCMuSo), with multilayer soil module and integrated management module. The aim of our research is to validate modelling results of forest ecosystem productivity (NPP) from BBGCMuSo model with observed productivity estimated from an extensive dataset of tree-rings. The research was conducted in two distinct forest complexes of managed Pedunculate oak in SE Europe (Croatia), namely Pokupsko basin and Spačva basin. First, we parameterized BBGCMuSo model at a local level using eddy-covariance (EC) data from Jastrebarsko EC site. Parameterized model was used for the assessment of productivity on a larger scale. Results of NPP assessment with BBGCMuSo are compared with NPP estimated from tree ring data taken from trees on over 100 plots in both forest complexes. Keywords: Biome-BGCMuSo, forest productivity, model parameterization, NPP, Pedunculate oak

  17. Spatial Assessment of Forest Ecosystem Functions and Services using Human Relating Factors for SDG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, C.; Lee, W. K.; Jeon, S. W.; Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.

    2015-12-01

    Application of ecosystem service concept in environmental related decision making could be numerical and objective standard for policy maker between preserving and developing perspective of environment. However, pursuing maximum benefit from natural capital through ecosystem services caused failure by losing ecosystem functions through its trade-offs. Therefore, difference between ecosystem functions and services were demonstrated and would apply human relating perspectives. Assessment results of ecosystem functions and services can be divided 3 parts. Tree growth per year set as the ecosystem function factor and indicated through so called pure function map. After that, relating functions can be driven such as water conservation, air pollutant purification, climate change regulation, and timber production. Overall process and amount are numerically quantified. These functional results can be transferred to ecosystem services by multiplying economic unit value, so function reflecting service maps can be generated. On the other hand, above services, to implement more reliable human demand, human reflecting service maps are also be developed. As the validation, quantified ecosystem functions are compared with former results through pixel based analysis. Three maps are compared, and through comparing difference between ecosystem function and services and inversed trends in function based and human based service are analysed. In this study, we could find differences in PF, FRS, and HRS in relation to based ecosystem conditions. This study suggests that the differences in PF, FRS, and HRS should be understood in the decision making process for sustainable management of ecosystem services. Although the analysis is based on in sort existing process separation, it is important to consider the possibility of different usage of ecosystem function assessment results and ecosystem service assessment results in SDG policy making. Furthermore, process based functional approach

  18. Tank bromeliad - a natural model ecosystem for methane cycling research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinson, Guntars; Brandt, Franziska; Conrad, Ralf

    2014-05-01

    Tank bromeliads are common epiphytes throughout neotropical forest ecosystems. They are relatively small discrete habitats for terrestrial and aquatic macro- and microorganisms and naturally replicated. Their tanks effectively collect leaf litter and water and harbor a diverse microbial community. Up to several thousands of these tank bromeliads per hectare of tropical forest create a unique wetland ecosystem responsible for significant methane emissions. In a field study in tropical montane forests of southern Ecuador we sampled tank bromeliads of different species, size and canopy height and found that tank water availability controlled community composition of methanogenic archaea, determined by molecular analysis of the archaeal 16S rRNA genes. We set up a greenhouse experiment to investigate drying and re-wetting effects on microbial community composition and methanogenesis. Additionally, we conducted 13-CH-4 and 13-CO-2 labeling studies to investigate potential interaction of plant and microbial metabolism during methane cycling in tank bromeliads. Drying resulted in rapid change of the microbial community composition. The relative abundance of acetoclastic methanogens increased and that of hydrogenotrophic methanogens decreased with decreasing tank water availability confirming our field observations. Labeling studies showed that carbon was released from the plant into the tank supporting methanogenesis and that tank-produced methane was ventilated through the bromeliad leaf structure into the atmosphere which is analogous to the rhizosphere environment of wetland ecosystems. The bromeliad ecosystem may therefore provide a natural model to study how environmental changes and plant-microbe interactions drive methane cycling in aquatic-terrestrial ecosystems.

  19. Stochastic daily modeling of arctic tundra ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erler, A.; Epstein, H. E.; Frazier, J.

    2011-12-01

    ArcVeg is a dynamic vegetation model that has simulated interannual variability of production and abundance of arctic tundra plant types in previous studies. In order to address the effects of changing seasonality on tundra plant community composition and productivity, we have uniquely adapted the model to operate on the daily timescale. Each section of the model-weather generation, nitrogen mineralization, and plant growth dynamics-are driven by daily fluctuations in simulated temperature conditions. These simulation dynamics are achieved by calibrating stochastic iterative loops and mathematical functions with raw field data. Air temperature is the fundamental driver in the model, parameterized by climate data collected in the field across numerous arctic tundra sites, and key daily statistics are extracted (mean and standard deviation of temperature for each day of the year). Nitrogen mineralization is calculated as an exponential function from the simulated temperature. The seasonality of plant growth is driven by the availability of nitrogen and constrained by historical patterns and dynamics of the remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), as they pertain to the seasonal onset of growth. Here we describe the methods used for daily weather generation, nitrogen mineralization, and the daily competition among twelve plant functional types for nitrogen and subsequent growth. This still rather simple approach to vegetation dynamics has the capacity to generate complex relationships between seasonal patterns of temperature and arctic tundra vegetation community structure and function.

  20. Element transport in aquatic ecosystemsModelling general and element-specific mechanisms

    OpenAIRE

    Konovalenko, Lena

    2014-01-01

    Radionuclides are widely used in energy production and medical, military and industrial applications. Thus, understanding the behaviour of radionuclides which have been or may be released into ecosystems is important for human and environmental risk assessment. Modelling of radionuclides or their stable element analogues is the only tool that can predict the consequences of accidental release. In this thesis, two dynamic stochastic compartment models for radionuclide/element transfer in a mar...

  1. Rangeland Ecosystem Services: Nature's Supply and Human's Demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecosystem services are the benefits that society receives from nature and they include the regulation of climate, the pollination of crops, the provisioning of intellectual inspiration and recreational environment, as well as many essential goods such as food, fiber, and wood. Rangeland ecosystem se...

  2. Middle Atlantic Bight Marine Ecosystem: A Regional Forecast Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Coles, V. J.; Garraffo, Z. D.

    2011-12-01

    Changes in basin scale climate patterns can drive changes in mesoscale physical oceanographic processes and subsequent alterations of ecosystem states. Climatic variability can be induced in the northeastern shelfbreak large marine ecosystem by climate oscillations, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; and long-term trends, such as a warming pattern. Short term variability can be induced by changes in the water masses in the northern and southern boundaries, by Gulf Stream path and transport variations, and by local mesoscale and submesoscale features. A coupled bio-physical model (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) is being used to forecast the evolution of the frontal and current systems of the shelf and Gulf Stream, and subsequent changes in thermal conditions and ecosystem structure over the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB). This study aims to forecast the ocean state and nutrients in the MAB, and to investigate how cross-shelf exchanges of different water masses could affect nutrient budgets, primary and secondary production, and fish populations in coastal and shelf marine ecosystems. Preliminary results are shown for a regional MAB model nested to the global 1/12o HYCOM run at NOAA/NCEP/EMC using Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO) daily initialization. Elements of this simulation are nutrient influx condition at the northern and southern boundaries through regression to ocean thermodynamic variables, and nutrient input at the river mouths.

  3. Synergistic impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation on model ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Lewis J; Newbold, Tim; Purves, Drew W; Tittensor, Derek P; Harfoot, Michael B J

    2016-09-28

    Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to biodiversity, yet separating their effects is challenging. We use a multi-trophic, trait-based, and spatially explicit general ecosystem model to examine the independent and synergistic effects of these processes on ecosystem structure. We manipulated habitat by removing plant biomass in varying spatial extents, intensities, and configurations. We found that emergent synergistic interactions of loss and fragmentation are major determinants of ecosystem response, including population declines and trophic pyramid shifts. Furthermore, trait-mediated interactions, such as a disproportionate sensitivity of large-sized organisms to fragmentation, produce significant effects in shaping responses. We also show that top-down regulation mitigates the effects of land use on plant biomass loss, suggesting that models lacking these interactions-including most carbon stock models-may not adequately capture land-use change impacts. Our results have important implications for understanding ecosystem responses to environmental change, and assessing the impacts of habitat fragmentation. © 2016 The Authors.

  4. USGS River Ecosystem Modeling: Where Are We, How Did We Get Here, and Where Are We Going?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Leanne; Schrock, Robin; Waddle, Terry; Duda, Jeffrey J.; Lellis, Bill

    2009-01-01

    This report developed as an outcome of the USGS River Ecosystem Modeling Work Group, convened on February 11, 2008 as a preconference session to the second USGS Modeling Conference in Orange Beach, Ala. Work Group participants gained an understanding of the types of models currently being applied to river ecosystem studies within the USGS, learned how model outputs are being used by a Federal land management agency, and developed recommendations for advancing the state of the art in river ecosystem modeling within the USGS. During a break-out session, participants restated many of the recommendations developed at the first USGS Modeling Conference in 2006 and in previous USGS needs assessments. All Work Group recommendations require organization and coordination across USGS disciplines and regions, and include (1) enhancing communications, (2) increasing efficiency through better use of current human and technologic resources, and (3) providing a national infrastructure for river ecosystem modeling resources, making it easier to integrate modeling efforts. By implementing these recommendations, the USGS will benefit from enhanced multi-disciplinary, integrated models for river ecosystems that provide valuable risk assessment and decision support tools for adaptive management of natural and managed riverine ecosystems. These tools generate key information that resource managers need and can use in making decisions about river ecosystem resources.

  5. Integrated Environmental Modelling: human decisions, human challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  6. Transforming the Rockies: Human forces, settlement patterns, and ecosystem effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis, William R.; Theobald, David M.; Fagre, Daniel B.

    2002-01-01

    The current ecological condition of the Rocky Mountains can be viewed from two somewhat opposing perspectives. The first is that human occupation has had relatively little effect on the Rockies: large natural, if not pristine, areas remain, and the region's open spaces provide wildlife habitat, majestic scenery, and a sense of wildness. Unlike the situation in, say, the Swiss Alps, where even high-elevation meadows have been mown and grazed intensively for as long as 500 years and many large mammals have been extirpated, most elements of Rocky Mountain landscapes and biota are reasonably unaltered. Even the presumption that Native Americans changed regional landscapes with deliberately set fires has been challenged by Baker and Ehle (2001) and others who think that most fires were lightning-caused or accidental ignitions. The second view is that humans have dramatically transformed the Rockies, at least since Euro-American settlement in the mid- to late 1800s. The slaughter of vast buffalo herds, the clearing of timber for railroad ties, and even the removal of whole hillsides in hydraulic placer mining represented substantial transformation. Ranch, resort, and residential development marks the latest incarnation of this transformation. Numerous, complex layers of land use have left landscape legacies, some of which may be unrecognized or underappreciated in modern assessments (Wohl 2001). Here we consider both perspectives because we are impressed with both the many effects of human use of the Rockies and the region's remaining wild landscapes. Ironically, much of the recent population growth and development in the Rockies is driven by the region's wild landscapes, which make the present widespread transformation seem all the more significant. It is, of course, the rapid clip of current human transformation—high population growth rates, pervasive rural residential development, and landscape fragmentation (Baron, Theobald, and Fagre 2000)—that worries

  7. Estimating the impacts of conservation on ecosystem services and poverty by integrating modeling and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Paul J; Hanauer, Merlin M; Miteva, Daniela A; Nelson, Joanna L; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K; Nolte, Christoph; Sims, Katharine R E

    2015-06-16

    Scholars have made great advances in modeling and mapping ecosystem services, and in assigning economic values to these services. This modeling and valuation scholarship is often disconnected from evidence about how actual conservation programs have affected ecosystem services, however. Without a stronger evidence base, decision makers find it difficult to use the insights from modeling and valuation to design effective policies and programs. To strengthen the evidence base, scholars have advanced our understanding of the causal pathways between conservation actions and environmental outcomes, but their studies measure impacts on imperfect proxies for ecosystem services (e.g., avoidance of deforestation). To be useful to decision makers, these impacts must be translated into changes in ecosystem services and values. To illustrate how this translation can be done, we estimated the impacts of protected areas in Brazil, Costa Rica, Indonesia, and Thailand on carbon storage in forests. We found that protected areas in these conservation hotspots have stored at least an additional 1,000 Mt of CO2 in forests and have delivered ecosystem services worth at least $5 billion. This aggregate impact masks important spatial heterogeneity, however. Moreover, the spatial variability of impacts on carbon storage is the not the same as the spatial variability of impacts on avoided deforestation. These findings lead us to describe a research program that extends our framework to study other ecosystem services, to uncover the mechanisms by which ecosystem protection benefits humans, and to tie cost-benefit analyses to conservation planning so that we can obtain the greatest return on scarce conservation funds.

  8. Integrated modelling of ecosystem services and energy systems research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwala, Matthew; Lovett, Andrew; Bateman, Ian; Day, Brett; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ziv, Guy

    2016-04-01

    The UK Government is formally committed to reducing carbon emissions and protecting and improving natural capital and the environment. However, actually delivering on these objectives requires an integrated approach to addressing two parallel challenges: de-carbonising future energy system pathways; and safeguarding natural capital to ensure the continued flow of ecosystem services. Although both emphasise benefiting from natural resources, efforts to connect natural capital and energy systems research have been limited, meaning opportunities to improve management of natural resources and meet society's energy needs could be missed. The ecosystem services paradigm provides a consistent conceptual framework that applies in multiple disciplines across the natural and economic sciences, and facilitates collaboration between them. At the forefront of the field, integrated ecosystem service - economy models have guided public- and private-sector decision making at all levels. Models vary in sophistication from simple spreadsheet tools to complex software packages integrating biophysical, GIS and economic models and draw upon many fields, including ecology, hydrology, geography, systems theory, economics and the social sciences. They also differ in their ability to value changes in natural capital and ecosystem services at various spatial and temporal scales. Despite these differences, current models share a common feature: their treatment of energy systems is superficial at best. In contrast, energy systems research has no widely adopted, unifying conceptual framework that organises thinking about key system components and interactions. Instead, the literature is organised around modelling approaches, including life cycle analyses, econometric investigations, linear programming and computable general equilibrium models. However, some consistencies do emerge. First, often contain a linear set of steps, from exploration to resource supply, fuel processing, conversion

  9. Synergistic impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation on model ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purves, Drew W.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Harfoot, Michael B. J.

    2016-01-01

    Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to biodiversity, yet separating their effects is challenging. We use a multi-trophic, trait-based, and spatially explicit general ecosystem model to examine the independent and synergistic effects of these processes on ecosystem structure. We manipulated habitat by removing plant biomass in varying spatial extents, intensities, and configurations. We found that emergent synergistic interactions of loss and fragmentation are major determinants of ecosystem response, including population declines and trophic pyramid shifts. Furthermore, trait-mediated interactions, such as a disproportionate sensitivity of large-sized organisms to fragmentation, produce significant effects in shaping responses. We also show that top-down regulation mitigates the effects of land use on plant biomass loss, suggesting that models lacking these interactions—including most carbon stock models—may not adequately capture land-use change impacts. Our results have important implications for understanding ecosystem responses to environmental change, and assessing the impacts of habitat fragmentation. PMID:27655763

  10. Puget Sound ocean acidification model outputs - Modeling the impacts of ocean acidification on ecosystems and populations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NWFSC OA team will model the effects of ocean acidification on regional marine species and ecosystems using food web models, life-cycle models, and bioenvelope...

  11. Fitting rainfall interception models to forest ecosystems of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Návar, José

    2017-05-01

    Models that accurately predict forest interception are essential both for water balance studies and for assessing watershed responses to changes in land use and the long-term climate variability. This paper compares the performance of four rainfall interception models-the sparse Gash (1995), Rutter et al. (1975), Liu (1997) and two new models (NvMxa and NvMxb)-using data from four spatially extensive, structurally diverse forest ecosystems in Mexico. Ninety-eight case studies measuring interception in tropical dry (25), arid/semi-arid (29), temperate (26), and tropical montane cloud forests (18) were compiled and analyzed. Coefficients derived from raw data or published statistical relationships were used as model input to evaluate multi-storm forest interception at the case study scale. On average empirical data showed that, tropical montane cloud, temperate, arid/semi-arid and tropical dry forests intercepted 14%, 18%, 22% and 26% of total precipitation, respectively. The models performed well in predicting interception, with mean deviations between measured and modeled interception as a function of total precipitation (ME) generally 0.66. Model fitting precision was dependent on the forest ecosystem. Arid/semi-arid forests exhibited the smallest, while tropical montane cloud forest displayed the largest ME deviations. Improved agreement between measured and modeled data requires modification of in-storm evaporation rate in the Liu; the canopy storage in the sparse Gash model; and the throughfall coefficient in the Rutter and the NvMx models. This research concludes on recommending the wide application of rainfall interception models with some caution as they provide mixed results. The extensive forest interception data source, the fitting and testing of four models, the introduction of a new model, and the availability of coefficient values for all four forest ecosystems are an important source of information and a benchmark for future investigations in this

  12. Coupling habitat suitability and ecosystem health with AEHRA to estimate E-flows under intensive human activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, C. S.; Yang, S. T.; Zhang, H. T.; Liu, C. M.; Sun, Y.; Yang, Z. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Dong, B. E.; Lim, R. P.

    2017-08-01

    Sustaining adequate environmental flows (e-flows) is a key principle for maintaining river biodiversity and ecosystem health, and for supporting sustainable water resource management in basins under intensive human activities. But few methods could correctly relate river health to e-flows assessment at the catchment scale when they are applied to rivers highly impacted by human activities. An effective method is presented in this study to closely link river health to e-flows assessment for rivers at the catchment scale. Key fish species, as indicators of ecosystem health, were selected by using the foodweb model. A multi-species-based habitat suitability model (MHSI) was improved, and coupled with dominance of the key fish species as well as the Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) to enhance its accuracy in determining the fish-preferred key hydrologic habitat variables related to ecosystem health. Taking 5964 fish samples and concurrent hydrological habitat variables as the basis, the combination of key variables of flow-velocity and water-depth were determined and used to drive the Adapted Ecological Hydraulic Radius Approach (AEHRA) to study e-flows in a Chinese urban river impacted by intensive human activities. Results showed that upstream urbanization resulted in abnormal river-course geomorphology and consequently abnormal e-flows under intensive human activities. Selection of key species based on the foodweb and trophic levels of aquatic ecosystems can reflect a comprehensive requirement on e-flows of the whole aquatic ecosystem, which greatly increases its potential to be used as a guidance tool for rehabilitation of degraded ecosystems at large spatial scales. These findings have significant ramifications for catchment e-flows assessment under intensive human activities and for river ecohealth restoration in such rivers globally.

  13. Scalability of human models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodarius, C.; Rooij, L. van; Lange, R. de

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this work was to create a scalable human occupant model that allows adaptation of human models with respect to size, weight and several mechanical parameters. Therefore, for the first time two scalable facet human models were developed in MADYMO. First, a scalable human male was

  14. Making eco logic and models work : An integrative approach to lake ecosystem modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both

  15. Making eco logic and models work : An integrative approach to lake ecosystem modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both scient

  16. Making eco logic and models work : An integrative approach to lake ecosystem modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both scient

  17. Modeling Heterogeneous Fishing Fleet in an Ecosystem Based Management Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hutniczak, Barbara

    The rapid pace of climate change and increased human disturbance of ecosystems in the Arctic is bringing urgency to concern over non-native species introductions and their potential threats to the marine environment and its economic productivity, where before environmental conditions served...... perturbations in the fragile Arctic ecosystems are likely to have outsized impacts both ecologically and economically. This work discusses the optimal management of international invasive species threats in order to minimize overall damages and costs. The related cases of the purposeful introduction of the red...... king crab (RKC) and the accidental introduction of the snow crab in the Barents Sea, and the red king crab’s recent identification in Icelandic waters, are used to develop the discussion of the tradeoffs, local, regional and international governance opportunities and failures, and intervention...

  18. Human activities cause distinct dissolved organic matter composition across freshwater ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Clayton J.; Frost, Paul C.; Morales-Williams, Ana M.; Larson, James H.; Richardson, William B.; Chiandet, Aisha S.; Xenopoulos, Marguerite A.

    2016-01-01

    Dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition in freshwater ecosystems is influenced by interactions between physical, chemical, and biological processes that are controlled, at one level, by watershed landscape, hydrology, and their connections. Against this environmental template, humans may strongly influence DOM composition. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of DOM composition variation across freshwater ecosystems differentially affected by human activity. Using optical properties, we described DOM variation across five ecosystem groups of the Laurentian Great Lakes Region: large lakes, Kawartha Lakes, Experimental Lakes Area, urban stormwater ponds, and rivers (n = 184 sites). We determined how between ecosystem variation in DOM composition related to watershed size, land use and cover, water quality measures (conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nutrient concentration, chlorophyll a), and human population density. The five freshwater ecosystem groups had distinctive DOM composition from each other. These significant differences were not explained completely through differences in watershed size nor spatial autocorrelation. Instead, multivariate partial least squares regression showed that DOM composition was related to differences in human impact across freshwater ecosystems. In particular, urban/developed watersheds with higher human population densities had a unique DOM composition with a clear anthropogenic influence that was distinct from DOM composition in natural land cover and/or agricultural watersheds. This nonagricultural, human developed impact on aquatic DOM was most evident through increased levels of a microbial, humic-like parallel factor analysis component (C6). Lotic and lentic ecosystems with low human population densities had DOM compositions more typical of clear water to humic-rich freshwater ecosystems but C6 was only present at trace to background levels. Consequently, humans are strongly altering the quality of DOM in

  19. Comparing model predictions for ecosystem-based management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Nis Sand; Essington, Timothy E.; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2016-01-01

    Ecosystem modeling is becoming an integral part of fisheries management, but there is a need to identify differences between predictions derived from models employed for scientific and management purposes. Here, we compared two models: a biomass-based food-web model (Ecopath with Ecosim (Ew......E)) and a size-structured fish community model. The models were compared with respect to predicted ecological consequences of fishing to identify commonalities and differences in model predictions for the California Current fish community. We compared the models regarding direct and indirect responses to fishing...... on one or more species. The size-based model predicted a higher fishing mortality needed to reach maximum sustainable yield than EwE for most species. The size-based model also predicted stronger top-down effects of predator removals than EwE. In contrast, EwE predicted stronger bottom-up effects...

  20. Measuring and Modeling the U.S. Regulatory Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommarito, Michael J., II; Katz, Daniel Martin

    2017-07-01

    Over the last 23 years, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has required over 34,000 companies to file over 165,000 annual reports. These reports, the so-called "Form 10-Ks," contain a characterization of a company's financial performance and its risks, including the regulatory environment in which a company operates. In this paper, we analyze over 4.5 million references to U.S. Federal Acts and Agencies contained within these reports to measure the regulatory ecosystem, in which companies are organisms inhabiting a regulatory environment. While individuals across the political, economic, and academic world frequently refer to trends in this regulatory ecosystem, far less attention has been paid to supporting such claims with large-scale, longitudinal data. In this paper, in addition to positing a model of regulatory ecosystems, we document an increase in the regulatory energy per filing, i.e., a warming "temperature." We also find that the diversity of the regulatory ecosystem has been increasing over the past two decades. These findings support the claim that regulatory activity and complexity are increasing, and this framework contributes an important step towards improving academic and policy discussions around legal complexity and regulation.

  1. Measuring and Modeling the U.S. Regulatory Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommarito, Michael J., II; Katz, Daniel Martin

    2017-09-01

    Over the last 23 years, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has required over 34,000 companies to file over 165,000 annual reports. These reports, the so-called "Form 10-Ks," contain a characterization of a company's financial performance and its risks, including the regulatory environment in which a company operates. In this paper, we analyze over 4.5 million references to U.S. Federal Acts and Agencies contained within these reports to measure the regulatory ecosystem, in which companies are organisms inhabiting a regulatory environment. While individuals across the political, economic, and academic world frequently refer to trends in this regulatory ecosystem, far less attention has been paid to supporting such claims with large-scale, longitudinal data. In this paper, in addition to positing a model of regulatory ecosystems, we document an increase in the regulatory energy per filing, i.e., a warming "temperature." We also find that the diversity of the regulatory ecosystem has been increasing over the past two decades. These findings support the claim that regulatory activity and complexity are increasing, and this framework contributes an important step towards improving academic and policy discussions around legal complexity and regulation.

  2. Habitat connectivity and ecosystem productivity: implications from a simple model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloern, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    The import of resources (food, nutrients) sustains biological production and food webs in resource-limited habitats. Resource export from donor habitats subsidizes production in recipient habitats, but the ecosystem-scale consequences of resource translocation are generally unknown. Here, I use a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model to show how dispersive connectivity between a shallow autotrophic habitat and a deep heterotrophic pelagic habitat can amplify overall system production in metazoan food webs. This result derives from the finite capacity of suspension feeders to capture and assimilate food particles: excess primary production in closed autotrophic habitats cannot be assimilated by consumers; however, if excess phytoplankton production is exported to food-limited heterotrophic habitats, it can be assimilated by zooplankton to support additional secondary production. Transport of regenerated nutrients from heterotrophic to autotrophic habitats sustains higher system primary production. These simulation results imply that the ecosystem-scale efficiency of nutrient transformation into metazoan biomass can be constrained by the rate of resource exchange across habitats and that it is optimized when the transport rate matches the growth rate of primary producers. Slower transport (i.e., reduced connectivity) leads to nutrient limitation of primary production in autotrophic habitats and food limitation of secondary production in heterotrophic habitats. Habitat fragmentation can therefore impose energetic constraints on the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems. The outcomes of ecosystem restoration through habitat creation will be determined by both functions provided by newly created aquatic habitats and the rates of hydraulic connectivity between them.

  3. Oceans and Human Health: Linking Ocean, Organism, and Human Health for Sustainable Management of Coastal Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandifer, P. A.; Trtanj, J.; Collier, T. K.

    2012-12-01

    Scientists and policy-makers are increasingly recognizing that sustainable coastal communities depend on healthy and resilient economies, ecosystems, and people, and that the condition or "health" of the coastal ocean and humans are intimately and inextricably connected. A wealth of ecosystem services provided by ocean and coastal environments are crucial for human survival and well being. Nonetheless, the health of coastal communities, their economies, connected ecosystems and ecosystem services, and people are under increasing threats from health risks associated with environmental degradation, climate change, and unwise land use practices, all of which contribute to growing burdens of naturally-occurring and introduced pathogens, noxious algae, and chemical contaminants. The occurrence, frequency, intensity, geographic range, and number and kinds of ocean health threats are increasing, with concomitant health and economic effects and eroding public confidence in the safety and wholesomeness of coastal environments and resources. Concerns in the research and public health communities, many summarized in the seminal 1999 NRC Report, From Monsoons to Microbes and the 2004 final report of the US Commission on Ocean Policy, resulted in establishment of a new "meta-discipline" known as Oceans and Human Health (OHH). OHH brings together practitioners in oceanography, marine biology, ecology, biomedical science, medicine, economics and other social sciences, epidemiology, environmental management, and public health to focus on water- and food-borne causes of human and animal illnesses associated with ocean and coastal systems and on health benefits of seafood and other marine products. It integrates information across multiple disciplines to increase knowledge of ocean health risks and benefits and communicate such information to enhance public safety. Recognizing the need for a comprehensive approach to ocean health threats and benefits, Congress passed the Oceans and

  4. A carbon balance model for the great dismal swamp ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Rachel; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Williams, Brianna; Hogan, Dianna; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhu, Zhiliang

    2017-01-01

    BackgroundCarbon storage potential has become an important consideration for land management and planning in the United States. The ability to assess ecosystem carbon balance can help land managers understand the benefits and tradeoffs between different management strategies. This paper demonstrates an application of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model developed for local-scale land management at the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. We estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance by considering past ecosystem disturbances resulting from storm damage, fire, and land management actions including hydrologic inundation, vegetation clearing, and replanting.ResultsWe modeled the annual ecosystem carbon stock and flow rates for the 30-year historic time period of 1985–2015, using age-structured forest growth curves and known data for disturbance events and management activities. The 30-year total net ecosystem production was estimated to be a net sink of 0.97 Tg C. When a hurricane and six historic fire events were considered in the simulation, the Great Dismal Swamp became a net source of 0.89 Tg C. The cumulative above and below-ground carbon loss estimated from the South One and Lateral West fire events totaled 1.70 Tg C, while management activities removed an additional 0.01 Tg C. The carbon loss in below-ground biomass alone totaled 1.38 Tg C, with the balance (0.31 Tg C) coming from above-ground biomass and detritus.ConclusionsNatural disturbances substantially impact net ecosystem carbon balance in the Great Dismal Swamp. Through alternative management actions such as re-wetting, below-ground biomass loss may have been avoided, resulting in the added carbon storage capacity of 1.38 Tg. Based on two model assumptions used to simulate the peat system, (a burn scar totaling 70 cm in depth, and the soil carbon accumulation rate of 0.36 t C/ha−1/year−1 for Atlantic white cedar), the total soil carbon loss from the

  5. Multicompartment ecosystem mass balances as a tool for understanding and managing the biogeochemical cycles of human ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, L A; Hope, D; Xu, Y; Edmonds, J

    2001-10-09

    Nitrogen remains a ubiquitous pollutant in surface and groundwater throughout the United States, despite 30 years of pollution control efforts. A detailed multicompartment N balance for the Central Arizona-Phoenix ecosystem is used to illustrate how an ecosystem-level approach can be used to develop improved N management strategies. The N balance is used to demonstrate how nitrate in pumped groundwater used for crop irrigation could be used to reduce inputs of commercial fertilizer and decrease N leaching to aquifers. Effectively managing N pollution also will require an understanding of the complex factors that control the N balance, including targeted regulations, individual human behavior, land-use conversion, and other ecosystem management practices that affect the N balance. These sometimes countervailing factors are illustrated with several scenarios of wastewater treatment technology and population growth in the Phoenix area. Management of N eventually must be coupled to management of other elements, notably carbon, phosphorus, and salts. We postulate that an ecosystem framework for pollution management will result in strategies that are more effective, fairer, and less expensive than current approaches.

  6. Environmental fate of rice paddy pesticides in a model ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomizawa, C; Kazano, H

    1979-01-01

    The distribution and metabolic fate of several rice paddy pesticides were evaluated in a modified model ecosystem. Among the three BHC isomers, beta-isomer was the most stable and bioconcentrated in all of the organisms. Alpha- and gamma-isomers were moderately persistent and degraded to some extent during the 33 day period. Disulfoton was relatively persistent due to the transformation to its oxidation products. Pyridaphenthion was fairly biodegradable. N-Phenyl maleic hydrazide derived from the hydrolysis of pyridaphenthion was not detected in the organisms though it was found in the aquarium water after 33 days. Cartap and edifenphos were considerably biodegradable, and the ratio of the conversion to water soluble metabolites was very high. There was a distinct difference in the persistence of Kitazin P and edifenphos in the aquarium water. It appeared that the hydrolysis rate of the pesticides affected their fate in the organisms. PCP appeared to be moderately biodegradable. CNP was considerably stable and stored in the organisms though the concentration in the aquarium water was relatively low. The persistence and distribution of the pesticides in the model ecosystem were dependent on their chemical structures. In spite of the limitation derived from short experimental period, the model ecosystem may be applicable for predicting the environmental fate of pesticides.

  7. Metabolic Trade-Offs Promote Diversity in a Model Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posfai, Anna; Taillefumier, Thibaud; Wingreen, Ned S.

    2017-01-01

    In nature, a large number of species can coexist on a small number of shared resources; however, resource-competition models predict that the number of species in steady coexistence cannot exceed the number of resources. Motivated by recent studies of phytoplankton, we introduce trade-offs into a resource-competition model and find that an unlimited number of species can coexist. Our model spontaneously reproduces several notable features of natural ecosystems, including keystone species and population dynamics and abundances characteristic of neutral theory, despite an underlying non-neutral competition for resources.

  8. Human impact on lake ecosystems: the case of Lake Naivasha, Kenya

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Human impact on lake ecosystems: the case of Lake Naivasha, Kenya. ... of aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna, including vegetation, birds, fish and mammals. ... Keywords: agriculture, alien species, bioindicator species, environmental ...

  9. IP Models to Orchestrate Innovation Ecosystems: IMEC, A PUBLIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE IN NANO-ELECTRONICS

    OpenAIRE

    Leten, Bart; Vanhaverbeke, Wim; Roijakkers, Nadine; Clerix, André; Van Helleputte, Johan

    2013-01-01

    Companies increasingly organize innovation activities within innovation ecosystems. This study illustrates the central role of the IP-model that an orchestrator develops for the innovation ecosystem partners. The governance of IP is instrumental for the success of innovation ecosystems as it determines the value appropriation potential for the ecosystem partners and positively influences the success of innovation ecosystems. The insights are based on a case study of IMEC, a public research in...

  10. Can models help to forecast rainwater dynamics for rainfed ecosystem?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukhtar Ahmed

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Simulation models are important tools to explore and illustrate dynamics of climatic variables in crop based ecosystem. In the rainfed ecosystem (RE, wheat production is impinged on certain climatic events per se high variability in rainfall and increased temperature. These climatic events turn out due to climatic drivers like Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs and pressure. Current study is aimed to analyze long term rainfall data (1961–2011 of Pakistan׳s rainfed ecosystem zone (Islamabad, Chakwal and Talagang by using Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM and R model. The principal objective of this analysis was to study the link between SOI phases and SSTs; and thereby understanding the pattern of climate change due to these climatic drivers under rainfed conditions in Pakistan. The results revealed a positive link between July SOI phases and the rainfall variability during October–November (the sowing time of wheat in Pakistan. Long term rainfall data analysis (1961–2011 of Islamabad, Chakwal and Talagang revealed 44%, 40%, 35% possibility of exceeding median rainfall near zero whereas probability of consistently negative SOI phases were 35%, 34% and 33% respectively during July. Similarly, the forecasting results estimated by R using covariates like dry spell, NINO1.2, NINO3, NINO4, NINO3.4 and IOD of different months revealed that prediction of monsoon, wheat early growth, wheat grain filling period and total wheat growing season rainfall, have significant signals with climatic drivers. The study justified the importance of models in the decision making processes and rainfall forecasting as a beneficial and necessary tool for rainfed ecosystem conservation.

  11. Ecosystem Services and Human Well-Being: a Participatory Study in a Mountain Community in Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Miguel Pereira

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem services are essential for human well-being, but the links between ecosystem services and human well-being are complex, diverse, context-dependent, and complicated by the need to consider different spatial and temporal scales to assess them properly. We present the results of a study in the rural community of Sistelo in northern Portugal that formed part of the Portugal Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. The main purpose of our study was to assess the linkages between human well-being and ecosystem services at the local level, as perceived by the community. We used a range of tools that included participatory rural appraisal and rapid rural appraisal as well as other field methods such as direct observation, familiarization and participation in activities, semistructured interviews, trend lines, well-being ranking, and other ranking and scoring exercises. Sistelo has a unique landscape of agricultural terraces that are now being abandoned because of the depopulation of the region, a common trend in mountainous rural areas of Europe. From the community perspective, some components of well-being such as material well-being have been improving, whereas some ecosystem services, e.g., food production, have been declining. Although a few of the local criteria for well-being are closely related to local ecosystem services, most of them are not. People recognize many of the services provided by ecosystems, in particular, provisioning, cultural, and regulating services, although they feel that provisioning services are the most important for well-being. It is apparent that, for the Sistelo community, there is an increasing disconnect between local well-being and at least some local ecosystem services. This disconnect is associated with greater freedom of choice at the local level, which gives the local inhabitants the power to find substitutes for ecosystem services. The consequences of land abandonment for human well-being and ecosystem services

  12. Variational methods to estimate terrestrial ecosystem model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delahaies, Sylvain; Roulstone, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Carbon is at the basis of the chemistry of life. Its ubiquity in the Earth system is the result of complex recycling processes. Present in the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide it is adsorbed by marine and terrestrial ecosystems and stored within living biomass and decaying organic matter. Then soil chemistry and a non negligible amount of time transform the dead matter into fossil fuels. Throughout this cycle, carbon dioxide is released in the atmosphere through respiration and combustion of fossils fuels. Model-data fusion techniques allow us to combine our understanding of these complex processes with an ever-growing amount of observational data to help improving models and predictions. The data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model is a simple box model simulating the carbon budget allocation for terrestrial ecosystems. Over the last decade several studies have demonstrated the relative merit of various inverse modelling strategies (MCMC, ENKF, 4DVAR) to estimate model parameters and initial carbon stocks for DALEC and to quantify the uncertainty in the predictions. Despite its simplicity, DALEC represents the basic processes at the heart of more sophisticated models of the carbon cycle. Using adjoint based methods we study inverse problems for DALEC with various data streams (8 days MODIS LAI, monthly MODIS LAI, NEE). The framework of constraint optimization allows us to incorporate ecological common sense into the variational framework. We use resolution matrices to study the nature of the inverse problems and to obtain data importance and information content for the different type of data. We study how varying the time step affect the solutions, and we show how "spin up" naturally improves the conditioning of the inverse problems.

  13. Carbon Management and Decision Support Systems for the CASA Ecosystem Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klooster, S.; Potter, C.; Fladeland, M.; Genovese, V.; Kramer, M.

    2003-12-01

    Ecosystem modeling and satellite remote sensing can link human activities such as land use change and forest management to the spatial distribution of carbon pools and fluxes at regional scales. The main objectives of this research and application are to: 1) evaluate major forest and agricultural sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the U. S. using NASA EOS satellite data and ecosystem modeling, 2) support the U. S. Government interagency program for registration of voluntary greenhouse gas emissions reductions under section 1605(b) of the 1992 Energy Policy Act, and 3) develop an internet-based decision support system (DSS) of carbon sequestration in U. S. ecosystems for users nationwide. We report on the first results of this DSS to assess the impacts of forest stand age on potential carbon sequestration, as predicted by the CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) biosphere model. Estimates of carbon storage in woody plant pools are compared before and after adjustment for management of stand age based on U. S. Forest Service map products. These predictions of historical forest carbon storage are subsequently compared to the potential annual increment of ecosystem carbon gain or loss under conditions of future climate variation.

  14. [Measuring water ecological carrying capacity with the ecosystem-service-based ecological footprint (ESEF) method: Theory, models and application].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Wen-jun; Min, Qing-wen; Li, Wen-hua; Fuller, Anthony M

    2015-04-01

    Integrated watershed management based on aquatic ecosystems has been increasingly acknowledged. Such a change in the philosophy of water environment management requires recognizing the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems for human society from a more general perspective. The concept of the water ecological carrying capacity is therefore put forward, which considers both water resources and water environment, connects socio-economic development to aquatic ecosystems and provides strong support for integrated watershed management. In this paper, the authors proposed an ESEF-based measure of water ecological carrying capacity and constructed ESEF-based models of water ecological footprint and capacity, aiming to evaluate water ecological carrying capacity with footprint methods. A regional model of Taihu Lake Basin was constructed and applied to evaluate the water ecological carrying capacity in Changzhou City which located in the upper reaches of the basin. Results showed that human demand for water ecosystem services in this city had exceeded the supply capacity of local aquatic ecosystems and the significant gap between demand and supply had jeopardized the sustainability of local aquatic ecosystems. Considering aqua-product provision, water supply and pollutant absorption in an integrated way, the scale of population and economy aquatic ecosystems in Changzhou could bear only 54% of the current status.

  15. Damped trophic cascades driven by fishing in model marine ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Pedersen, Martin

    2010-01-01

    that fishing does not change the overall slope of the size spectrum, but depletes the largest individuals and induces trophic cascades. A trophic cascade can propagate both up and down in trophic levels driven by a combination of changes in predation mortality and food limitation. The cascade is damped...... cascade triggered by the removal of top predators. Here we use a novel size- and trait-based model to explore how marine ecosystems might react to perturbations from different types of fishing pressure. The model explicitly resolves the whole life history of fish, from larvae to adults. The results show...

  16. A methodology for ecosystem-scale modeling of selenium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presser, T.S.; Luoma, S.N.

    2010-01-01

    The main route of exposure for selenium (Se) is dietary, yet regulations lack biologically based protocols for evaluations of risk. We propose here an ecosystem-scale model that conceptualizes and quantifies the variables that determinehow Se is processed from water through diet to predators. This approach uses biogeochemical and physiological factors from laboratory and field studies and considers loading, speciation, transformation to particulate material, bioavailability, bioaccumulation in invertebrates, and trophic transfer to predators. Validation of the model is through data sets from 29 historic and recent field case studies of Se-exposed sites. The model links Se concentrations across media (water, particulate, tissue of different food web species). It can be used to forecast toxicity under different management or regulatory proposals or as a methodology for translating a fish-tissue (or other predator tissue) Se concentration guideline to a dissolved Se concentration. The model illustrates some critical aspects of implementing a tissue criterion: 1) the choice of fish species determines the food web through which Se should be modeled, 2) the choice of food web is critical because the particulate material to prey kinetics of bioaccumulation differs widely among invertebrates, 3) the characterization of the type and phase of particulate material is important to quantifying Se exposure to prey through the base of the food web, and 4) the metric describing partitioning between particulate material and dissolved Se concentrations allows determination of a site-specific dissolved Se concentration that would be responsible for that fish body burden in the specific environment. The linked approach illustrates that environmentally safe dissolved Se concentrations will differ among ecosystems depending on the ecological pathways and biogeochemical conditions in that system. Uncertainties and model sensitivities can be directly illustrated by varying exposure

  17. Modelling C₃ photosynthesis from the chloroplast to the ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernacchi, Carl J; Bagley, Justin E; Serbin, Shawn P; Ruiz-Vera, Ursula M; Rosenthal, David M; Vanloocke, Andy

    2013-09-01

    Globally, photosynthesis accounts for the largest flux of CO₂ from the atmosphere into ecosystems and is the driving process for terrestrial ecosystem function. The importance of accurate predictions of photosynthesis over a range of plant growth conditions led to the development of a C₃ photosynthesis model by Farquhar, von Caemmerer & Berry that has become increasingly important as society places greater pressures on vegetation. The photosynthesis model has played a major role in defining the path towards scientific understanding of photosynthetic carbon uptake and the role of photosynthesis on regulating the earth's climate and biogeochemical systems. In this review, we summarize the photosynthesis model, including its continued development and applications. We also review the implications these developments have on quantifying photosynthesis at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, and discuss the model's role in determining photosynthetic responses to changes in environmental conditions. Finally, the review includes a discussion of the larger-scale modelling and remote-sensing applications that rely on the leaf photosynthesis model and are likely to open new scientific avenues to address the increasing challenges to plant productivity over the next century.

  18. Mitigating Adverse Effects of a Human Mission on Possible Martian Indigenous Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupisella, M. L.

    2000-07-01

    Although human beings are, by most standards, the most capable agents to search for and detect extraterrestrial life, we are also potentially the most harmful. While there has been substantial work regarding forward contamination with respect to robotic missions, the issue of potential adverse effects on possible indigenous Martian ecosystems, such as biological contamination, due to a human mission has remained relatively unexplored and may require our attention now as this presentation will try to demonstrate by exploring some of the relevant scientific questions, mission planning challenges, and policy issues. An informal, high-level mission planning decision tree will be discussed and is included as the next page of this abstract. Some of the questions to be considered are: (1) To what extent could contamination due to a human presence compromise possible indigenous life forms? (2) To what extent can we control contamination? For example, will it be local or global? (3) What are the criteria for assessing the biological status of Mars, both regionally and globally? For example, can we adequately extrapolate from a few strategic missions such as sample return missions? (4) What should our policies be regarding our mission planning and possible interaction with what are likely to be microbial forms of extraterrestrial life? (5) Central to the science and mission planning issues is the role and applicability of terrestrial analogs, such as Lake Vostok for assessing drilling issues, and modeling techniques. Central to many of the policy aspects are scientific value, international law, public concern, and ethics. Exploring this overall issue responsibly requires an examination of all these aspects and how they interrelate. A chart is included, titled 'Mission Planning Decision Tree for Mitigating Adverse Effects to Possible Indigenous Martian Ecosystems due to a Human Mission'. It outlines what questions scientists should ask and answer before sending humans to Mars.

  19. Impact of environmental change on primary production in model marine coastal ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Hicks, Natalie

    2011-01-01

    Coastal ecosystems, including estuaries, provide a range of services to humans, mediated by the species within these ecosystems. Microphytobenthos (MPB) play a vital role in many key processes within estuarine ecosystems, and provide a food source for higher trophic levels. Anthropogenic activity is already causing changes to ecosystems, through pollution, overexploitation and, more recently, climate change. Increasing temperature and carbon dioxide levels, and altered biodiver...

  20. A public-policy practicum to address current issues in human, animal, and ecosystem health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann, John A; Johnson, Yvette J; Troutt, H Fred; Prudhomme, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    There are recognized needs for cross-training health professionals in human, animal, and ecosystem health and for public health policy to be informed by experts from medical, science, and social science disciplines. Faculty members of the Community Health and Preventive Medicine Section at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Veterinary Medicine, and the Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, have offered a public-policy course designed to meet those needs. The course was designed as a practicum to teach students the policy-making process through the development of policy proposals and to instruct students on how to effectively present accurate scientific, demographic, and statistical information to policy makers and to the public. All students substantially met the learning objectives of the course. This course represents another model that can be implemented to help students learn about complex, multifactorial issues that affect the health of humans, animals, and ecosystems, while promoting participation in public health policy development.

  1. Scorched earth: how will changes in ozone deposition caused by drought affect human health and ecosystems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emberson, L. D.; Kitwiroon, N.; Beevers, S.; Büker, P.; Cinderby, S.

    2012-10-01

    This unique study investigates the effect of ozone (O3) deposition on ground level O3 concentrations and subsequent human health and ecosystem risk under hot summer "heat wave" type meteorological events. Under such conditions, extended drought can effectively "turn off" the O3 vegetation sink leading to a substantial increase in ground level O3 concentrations. Two models that have been used for human health (the CMAQ chemical transport model) and ecosystem (the DO3SE O3 deposition model) risk assessment are combined to provide a powerful policy tool capable of novel integrated assessments of O3 risk using methods endorsed by the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. This study investigates 2006, a particularly hot and dry year during which a heat wave occurred during the summer across much of the UK and Europe. To understand the influence of variable O3 dry deposition three different simulations were investigated during June and July: (i) actual conditions in 2006; (ii) conditions that assume a perfect vegetation sink for O3 deposition and (iii) conditions that assume an extended drought period that reduces the vegetation sink to a minimum. The risk of O3 to human health, assessed by estimating the number of days during which running 8-h mean O3 concentrations exceeded 100 μg m-3, show that on average across the UK, there is a difference of 16 days exceedance of the threshold between the perfect sink and drought conditions. These average results hide local variation with exceedances reaching as high as 20 days in the East Midlands and Eastern UK. Estimates of acute exposure effects show that O3 removed from the atmosphere through dry deposition during the June and July period would have been responsible for approximately 460 premature deaths. Conversely, reduced O3 dry deposition will decrease the amount of O3 taken up by vegetation and, according to flux-based assessments of vegetation damage, will lead to protection from O3 across the UK

  2. STUDY ON RESIDUES OF 14C-FENITROTHION IN MODEL RICE-FISH ECOSYSTEM AND FIELD RICE-FISH ECOSYSTEM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1994-01-01

    Residues of 14C-fenitrothion in a model rice-fish ecosystem and field rice-fish ecosystem were studied.When equal amounts of the pesticide were applied.the extractable residues in brown rice (equivalent to 34.3±1.9ug/kg fenitrothion) and rice stems and leaves(20.9±1.5ug/kg) of the model rice-fish ecosystem were 10-15times higher than that of the field rice-fish ecosystem(4.48±0.13ug/kg and 1.27±0.34ug/kg respectively).Residues in upper part of the soil (6.50±0.1-8.10±0.2ug/kg)and lower part of the soil(1.30±0.1-1.50±0.1ug/kg)of the model rice-fish ecosystem were 10-40 times higher than that of the field rice-fish ecosystem (0.17±0.01ug/kg).The extractable residues in paddy water of the model ecosystem (0.30±0.01ug/kg)were similar to that of the field ecosystem(0.20±0.02ug/kg),When the fenitrothion was sprayed on the rice plants.residues in brown rice,fish body.soil and paddy water were lower than those when the pesticide was sprayed on the surface of the soil.

  3. Trajectories in human domination of ecosystems : Human appropriation of net primary production in the Philippines during the 20th century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kastner, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    The "human appropriation of net primary production" (HANPP) has been suggested as a comprehensive indicator to measure impacts of human land use on ecosystems. It accounts for (a) human-induced changes in biological productivity and (b) biomass harvest. This study presents an analysis of aboveground

  4. The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard

    2008-03-15

    An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

  5. Sociotechnical Management Model for Governance of an Ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio J. Balloni

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This is an opinion paper regarding a proposal of a model for a Ecosystemm Governance. In the globalized world the importance of Information Systems (IS and Information Technology (IT become increasingly relevant regarding the requirements imposed by competition. Both the knowledge of the business as the rapid flow of information are fundamental for a enterprise decision making. Whereas the basic definition of IT = hardware + software, i.e. , tools that has been used to create, store and disseminate data and information in the creation of knowledge, and IS = IT + People + procedures that collect, process and disseminate the information to support decision making, coordination, control, analysis and visualization in the organization [01], it makes implicit the understanding of IS is essential to create competitivecompanies, to manage global corporations and provide customers with products and services of value. Inthis work we are correlating IS with the governance of management of an ecosystem. Yet, as IT is redefining the foundations of business, then the customer service, operations, strategies of product marketing and its distribution and even the knowledge management (KM depends very much, or sometimes even completely, on the IS. The IT and its costs have become a part of day-to-day business [02]. In order to meet this complexity of business needs, today is not possible to disregard the IT and its available resources, which makes very dificult to draw up IS. Therefore, the perspective view of the Sociotehcnical Aspects of an IS are directly concerned with governance and the model proposed regarding an ecosystem. Finally, whereas the summary above, the main objective of this opinion paper is to propose the guidelines for a Sociotechnical Management Model of Governance for an Ecosystem.

  6. EnviroAtlas Connects Urban Ecosystem Services and Human ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecosystem services in urban areas can improve public health and well-being by mitigating natural and anthropogenic pollution, and by promoting healthy lifestyles that include engagement with nature and enhanced opportunities for physical activity and social interaction. EPA’s EnviroAtlas online mapping tool identifies urban environmental features linked in the scientific and medical literature to specific aspects of public health and well-being. EnviroAtlas researchers have synthesized newly-generated one-meter resolution landcover data, downscaled census population data, and other existing datasets such as roads and parks. Resulting geospatial metrics represent health-related indicators of urban ecosystem services supply and demand by census block-group and finer scales. EnviroAtlas maps include percent of the population with limited window views of trees, tree cover along walkable roads, overall neighborhood green space, and proximity to parks. Demographic data can be overlaid to perform analyses of disproportionate distribution of urban ecosystem services across population groups. Together with the Eco-Health Relationship Browser, EnviroAtlas data can be linked to numerous aspects of public health and well-being including school performance, physical fitness, social capital, and longevity. EnviroAtlas maps have been developed using consistent methods to allow for comparisons between neighborhoods and across multiple U.S. communities. To feature eco-heal

  7. The influence of conceptual model uncertainty on management decisions for a groundwater-dependent ecosystem in karst

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gondwe, Bibi Ruth Neuman; Merediz-Alonso, Gonzalo; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2011-01-01

    to preserve water resources and maintain ecosystem services. Multiple Model Simulation highlights the impact of model structure uncertainty on management decisions using several plausible conceptual models. Multiple Model Simulation was used for this purpose on the Yucatan Peninsula, which is one of the world’s...... abstractions and pollution threatens the fresh water resource, and consequently the ecosystem integrity of both Sian Ka’an and the adjacent coastal environment. Seven different catchment-scale conceptual models were implemented in a distributed hydrological modelling approach. Equivalent porous medium...... largest karstic aquifers. The aquifer is the only available fresh water source for human users and ecosystems on the Peninsula. One of Mexico’s largest protected areas, the groundwater-dependent Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve (5280km2) is fed by the aquifer’s thin freshwater lens. Increasing groundwater...

  8. A descriptive ecosystem model - a strategy for model development during site investigations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loefgren, Anders [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Botany; Lindborg, Tobias [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2003-09-01

    This report describes a strategy for the development of a site descriptive model for the surface ecosystem on the potential deep repository sites. The surface ecosystem embraces many disciplines, and these have to be identified, described and integrated in order to construct a descriptive ecosystem model that describes and quantifies biotic and abiotic patterns and processes of importance for the ecosystem on the site. The descriptive model includes both present day conditions and historical information. The descriptive ecosystem model will be used to supply input data for the safety assessment and to serve as the baseline model for devising a monitoring program to detect short-term disturbances caused first by the site investigations and later by the construction of the deep repository. Furthermore, it will serve as a reference for future comparisons to determine more long-term effects or changes caused by the deep repository. The report adopts a non-site-specific approach focusing on the following aims: 1. To present and define the properties that will constitute the descriptive ecosystem model. 2. To present a methodology for determining those properties. 3. To describe and develop the framework for the descriptive ecosystem model by integrating the different properties. 4. To present vital data from other site descriptive models such as those for geology or hydrogeology that interacts with and affects the descriptive ecosystem model. The properties are described under four different sections: general physical properties of the landscape, the terrestrial system, the limnic system and the marine system. These headings are further subdivided into entities that integrate properties in relation to processes.

  9. Incorporating Phaeocystis into a Southern Ocean ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shanlin; Moore, J. Keith

    2011-01-01

    Phaeocystis antarctica is an important phytoplankton species in the Southern Ocean. We incorporated P. antarctica into the biogeochemical elemental cycling ocean model to study Southern Ocean ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemistry. The optimum values of ecological parameters for Phaeocystis were sought through synthesizing laboratory and field observations, and the model output was evaluated with observed chlorophyll a, carbon biomass, and nutrient distributions. Several factors have been proposed to control Southern Ocean ecosystem structure, including light adaptation, iron uptake capability, and loss processes. Optimum simulation results were obtained when P. antarctica had a relatively high α (P-I curve initial slope) value and a higher half-saturation constant for iron uptake than other phytoplankton. Simulation results suggested that P. antarctica had a competitive advantage under low irradiance levels, especially in the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea. However, the distributions of P. antarctica and diatoms were also strongly influenced by iron availability. Although grazing rates had an influence on total biomass, our simulations did not show a strong influence of grazing pressure in the competition between P. antarctica and diatoms. However, limited observations and the relative simplicity of zooplankton in our model suggest further research is needed. Overall, P. antarctica contributed ˜13% of annual primary production and ˜19% of sinking carbon export in the Southern Ocean (>40°S) in our best case simulation. At higher latitudes (>60°S) P. antarctica accounts for ˜23% of annual primary production and ˜30% of sinking carbon export.

  10. Towards a control model for the highly cybernetic farming ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, C M; Lin, W Z

    2000-11-01

    A dynamic model based on the linear systems theory is developed in designing a highly cybernetic farming strategy to efficiently manage residuals generated in farm ecosystems. A linear cybemetic model would be used to describe the dynamic behavior of resource flow in the farm ecosystem in which the state variables are resource quantities, and the control variables are residual quantities. The controlled process is defined as the controlled management strategy change. Cybemetic mechanism shows the application of residuals as control measures have determinate effects on the controlled process as along as the farming system is observable and controllable in the control sense. To illustrate the model algorithm the idea is applied to simulate the dynamic response of residual phosphorus concentrations in an integrated pig/corn farming system located in the south Taiwan region. General results show that the residual phosphorous concentration is influenced by farming activities which are controlled by a system of gross input and net output parameters. This paper demonstrates using input-output analysis technique that residuals generated in the farming system is the most important cybemetic variable,

  11. Conceptual basis and spatial modelling to account for and conserve multiple ecosystem services in Telemark County, Norway

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröter, M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary

    Ecosystem services are defined as the contributions that ecosystems make to human well-being and they are increasingly being used as an approach to analyse the relationship between humans and ecosystems. While ecosystem services are

  12. Conceptual basis and spatial modelling to account for and conserve multiple ecosystem services in Telemark County, Norway

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröter, M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary

    Ecosystem services are defined as the contributions that ecosystems make to human well-being and they are increasingly being used as an approach to analyse the relationship between humans and ecosystems. While ecosystem services are mains

  13. Ecosystem-based fishery management: a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Thanh Viet

      An ecosystem approach means different things to different people. As a result the concept of ecosystem-based fishery management is evolving and it has no universal definition or consistent application. As regards ecosystem modeling, most economic models of fishery ignore the linkages to lower t...... trophic levels. In particular, environmental data and other bottom-up information is widely disregarded. The objective of this paper is to provide a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models relating to ecosystem-based fishery management.......  An ecosystem approach means different things to different people. As a result the concept of ecosystem-based fishery management is evolving and it has no universal definition or consistent application. As regards ecosystem modeling, most economic models of fishery ignore the linkages to lower...

  14. Ice-ocean-ecosystem operational model of the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janecki, M.; Dzierzbicka-Glowacka, L.; Jakacki, J.; Nowicki, A.

    2012-04-01

    3D-CEMBS is a fully coupled model adopted for the Baltic Sea and have been developed within the grant, wchich is supported by the Polish State Committee of Scientific Reasearch. The model is based on CESM1.0 (Community Earth System Model), in our configuration it consists of two active components (ocean and ice) driven by central coupler (CPL7). Ocean (POP version 2.1) and ice models (CICE model, version 4.0) are forced by atmospheric and land data models. Atmospheric data sets are provided by ICM-UM model from University of Warsaw. Additionally land model provides runoff of the Baltic Sea (currently 78 rivers). Ecosystem model is based on an intermediate complexity marine ecosystem model for the global domain (J.K. Moore et. al., 2002) and consists of 11 main components: zooplankton, small phytoplankton, diatoms, cyanobacteria, two detrital classes, dissolved oxygen and the nutrients nitrate, ammonium, phosphate and silicate. The model is configured at two horizontal resolutions, approximately 9km and 2km (1/12° and 1/48° respectively). The model bathymetry is represented as 21 vertical levels and the thickness of the first four layers were chosen to be five metres. 3D-CEMBS model grid is based on stereographic coordinates, but equator of these coordinates is in the centre of the Baltic Sea (rotated stereographic coordinates) and we can assume that shape of the cells are square and they are identical. Currently model works in a operational state. The model creates 48-hour forecasts every 6 hours (or when new atmospheric dataset is available). Prognostic variables such as temperature, salinity, ice cover, currents, sea surface height and phytoplankton concentration are presented online on a the website and are available for registered users. Also time series for any location are accessible. This work was carried out in support of grant No NN305 111636 and No NN306 353239 - the Polish state Committee of Scientific Research. The partial support for this study was

  15. [Assessing forest ecosystem health I. Model, method, and index system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Gao; Dai, Limin; Ji, Lanzhu; Deng, Hongbing; Hao, Zhanqing; Wang, Qingli

    2004-10-01

    Ecosystem health assessment is one of the main researches and urgent tasks of ecosystem science in 21st century. An operational definition on ecosystem health and an all-sided, simple, easy operational and standard index system, which are the foundation of assessment on ecosystem health, are necessary in obtaining a simple and applicable assessment theory and method of ecosystem health. Taking the Korean pine and broadleaved mixed forest ecosystem as an example, an originally creative idea on ecosystem health was put forward in this paper based on the idea of mode ecosystem set and the idea of forest ecosystem health, together with its assessment. This creative idea can help understand what ecosystem health is. Finally, a formula was deduced based on a new effective health assessment method--health distance (HD), which is the first time to be brought forward in China. At the same time, aiming at it's characteristics by status understanding and material health questions, a health index system of Korean pine and broadleaved mixed forest ecosystem was put forward in this paper, which is a compound ecosystem based on the compound properties of nature, economy and society. It is concrete enough to measure sub-index, so it is the foundation to assess ecosystem health of Korean pine and broadleaved mixed forest in next researches.

  16. Coupled hydrological, ecological, decision and economic models for monetary valuation of riparian ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, D. C.; Brookshire, D.; Broadbent, C.; Dixon, M. D.; Brand, L. A.; Thacher, J.; Benedict, K. K.; Lansey, K. E.; Stromberg, J. C.; Stewart, S.; McIntosh, M.

    2011-12-01

    Water is a critical component for sustaining both natural and human systems. Yet the value of water for sustaining ecosystem services is not well quantified in monetary terms. Ideally decisions involving water resource management would include an apples-to-apples comparison of the costs and benefits in dollars of both market and non-market goods and services - human and ecosystem. To quantify the value of non-market ecosystem services, scientifically defensible relationships must be developed that link the effect of a decision (e.g. human growth) to the change in ecosystem attributes from current conditions. It is this linkage that requires the "poly-disciplinary" coupling of knowledge and models from the behavioral, physical, and ecological sciences. In our experience another key component of making this successful linkage is development of a strong poly-disciplinary scientific team that can readily communicate complex disciplinary knowledge to non-specialists outside their own discipline. The time to build such a team that communicates well and has a strong sense of trust should not be underestimated. The research described in the presentation incorporated hydrologic, vegetation, avian, economic, and decision models into an integrated framework to determine the value of changes in ecological systems that result from changes in human water use. We developed a hydro-bio-economic framework for the San Pedro River Region in Arizona that considers groundwater, stream flow, and riparian vegetation, as well as abundance, diversity, and distribution of birds. In addition, we developed a similar framework for the Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico. There are six research components for this project: (1) decision support and scenario specification, (2) regional groundwater model, (3) the riparian vegetation model, (4) the avian model, (5) methods for displaying the information gradients in the valuation survey instruments (Choice Modeling and Contingent Valuation), and (6

  17. How to misinterpret photosynthesis measurements and develop incorrect ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prentice, Iain Colin

    2017-04-01

    It is becoming widely accepted than current land ecosystem models (dynamic global vegetation models and land-surface models) rest on shaky foundations and are in need of rebuilding, taking advantage of huge data resources that were hardly conceivable when these models were first developed. It has also become almost a truism that next-generation model development should involve observationalists, experimentalists and modellers working more closely together. What is currently lacking, however, is open discussion of specific problems in the structure of current models, and how they might have arisen. Such a discussion is important if the same mistakes are not to be perpetuated in a new generation of models. I will focus on the central processes governing leaf-level gas exchange, which powers the land carbon and water cycles. I will show that a broad area of confusion exists - as much in the empirical ecophysiological literature as in modelling research - concerning the interpretation of gas-exchange measurements and (especially) their scaling up from the narrow temporal and spatial scales of laboratory measurements to the broad-scale research questions linked to global environmental change. In particular, I will provide examples (drawing on a variety of published and unpublished observations) that illustrate the benefits of taking a "plant-centred" view, showing how consideration of optimal acclimation challenges many (often untstated) assumptions about the relationship of plant and ecosystem processes to environmental variation. (1) Photosynthesis is usually measured at light saturation (implying Rubisco limitation), leading to temperature and CO2 responses that are completely different from those of gross primary production (GPP) under field conditions. (2) The actual rate of electron transport under field conditions depends strongly on the intrinsic quantum efficiency, which is temperature-independent (within a broad range) and unrelated to the maximum electron

  18. Equation-free mechanistic ecosystem forecasting using empirical dynamic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Hao; Beamish, Richard J; Glaser, Sarah M; Grant, Sue C H; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Richards, Laura J; Schnute, Jon T; Sugihara, George

    2015-03-31

    It is well known that current equilibrium-based models fall short as predictive descriptions of natural ecosystems, and particularly of fisheries systems that exhibit nonlinear dynamics. For example, model parameters assumed to be fixed constants may actually vary in time, models may fit well to existing data but lack out-of-sample predictive skill, and key driving variables may be misidentified due to transient (mirage) correlations that are common in nonlinear systems. With these frailties, it is somewhat surprising that static equilibrium models continue to be widely used. Here, we examine empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) as an alternative to imposed model equations and that accommodates both nonequilibrium dynamics and nonlinearity. Using time series from nine stocks of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) from the Fraser River system in British Columbia, Canada, we perform, for the the first time to our knowledge, real-data comparison of contemporary fisheries models with equivalent EDM formulations that explicitly use spawning stock and environmental variables to forecast recruitment. We find that EDM models produce more accurate and precise forecasts, and unlike extensions of the classic Ricker spawner-recruit equation, they show significant improvements when environmental factors are included. Our analysis demonstrates the strategic utility of EDM for incorporating environmental influences into fisheries forecasts and, more generally, for providing insight into how environmental factors can operate in forecast models, thus paving the way for equation-free mechanistic forecasting to be applied in management contexts.

  19. Ecosystem models. (latest citations from the NTIS data base). Published Search

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the design and application of ecosystem models. Ecosystem simulation and characterization models, together with models for marine biology, plants, microorganisms, and food chains, are described. Models that assess the effect of pollutants on specific environments and habitat suitability index models are also included. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  20. Ecosystem models. (Latest citations from the NTIS Bibliographic database). Published Search

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the design and applications of ecosystem models. Ecosystem simulation and characterization models, together with models for marine biology, plants, microorganisms, and food chains, are described. Models that assess the effect of pollutants on specific environments and habitat suitability index models are also included. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  1. How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Janssen, Annette B.G.; Kuiper, Jan J.; Leemans, Rik; Robson, Barbara J.; Leemput, Ingrid A. van de; Mooij, Wolf M.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the importance of coral reef ecosystems to the social and economic welfare of coastal communities, the condition of these marine ecosystems have generally degraded over the past decades. With an increased knowledge of coral reef ecosystem processes and a rise in computer power, dynamic model

  2. How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, M.W.; Fulton, E.A.; Janssen, A.B.G.; Kuiper, J.J.; Leemans, R.; Leemput, van de I.A.; Mooij, W.M.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the importance of coral reef ecosystems to the social and economic welfare of coastal communities, the condition of these marine ecosystems have generally degraded over the past decades. With an increased knowledge of coral reef ecosystem processes and a rise in computer power, dynamic model

  3. Renaturalisation of forest ecosystems: is a reference model really needed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nocentini S

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Renaturalisation is more and more often considered the aim of management when dealing with simplified forests. The term “renaturalisation” has become the keyword of many forest management projects. A reference model or system is often considered essential for forest renaturalisation. This approach is coherent with a school of thought which finds relevant examples in the science and practice of Ecological restoration. The search for a reference system has several practical limitations and, especially, a severe theoretical fault. The definition of a reference system underlies the idea that ecosystem reactions to management can be exactly forecast and thus ecosystems can be guided towards a predefined composition, structure and functionality. This idea stems from a deterministic imprinting which characterises traditional forestry thinking and which is clearly in contrast with the dynamic nature of forest ecosystems. If renaturalisation is seen as a silvicultural and management approach which tends to favour natural evolutionary processes through the system’s ability to autonomously increase its complexity and biodiversity, then the actual system under management is the only possible reference system. An accurate analysis of the evolutionary trends in relation to the actual environmental conditions and landscape matrix should therefore be the basis for the renaturalisation process. Management must proceed as an experiment: the reaction to each intervention must be monitored using appropriate indicators. These are not to be seen as reference limits but as parameters for quantifying changes in the system’s self-regulating processes. In conclusion, renaturalisation has more to do with the way we interact with nature than with a closed project with a clearly defined beginning and end.

  4. Modeling approaches to describe H2O and CO2 exchange in mare ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olchev, A.; Novenko, E.; Volkova, E.

    2012-04-01

    The modern climatic conditions is strongly influenced by both internal variability of climatic system, and various external natural and anthropogenic factors (IPCC 2007). Significant increase of concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and especially the growth of atmospheric CO2 due to human activity are considered as the main factors that are responsible for global warming and climate changes. A significant part of anthropogenic CO2 is absorbed from the atmosphere by land biota and especially by vegetation cover. However, it is still not completely clear what is the role of different land ecosystems and especially forests and mares in global cycles of H2O and CO2 and what is a sensitivity of these ecosystems to climate changes. Within the frameworks of this study the spatial and temporal variability of H2O and CO2 fluxes in different types of mare ecosystems of the forest-steppe zone in European part of Russia was described using modeling approaches and results of field measurements. For this modeling and experimental study the mare ecosystems of Tula region were selected. The Tula region is located mostly in the forest-steppe zone and it is unique area for such studies because almost all existed types of mare ecosystems of Northern Eurasia distinguished by a geomorphological position, water and mineral supply can be found there. Most mares in Tula region have a relatively small size and surrounded by very heterogeneous forests that make not possible an application of the classical measuring and modeling approaches e.g. an eddy covariance technique or one-dimensional H2O and CO2 exchange models for flux estimation in such sites. In our study to describe the radiation, sensible heat, H2O and CO2 exchange between such heterogeneous mare ecosystems and the atmosphere a three-dimensional model Forbog-3D and one-dimensional Mixfor-SVAT were applied. The main concept used in the Forbog-3D and Mixfor-SVAT models is an aggregated description of physical and

  5. Modelling Upwelling Irradiance using Secchi disk depth in lake ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio ROSSI

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available A simple model for upwelling irradiance has been developed. The model represents the relationship between Photosynthetically Active Radiation diffuse attenuation coefficients and Secchi disk depth described with a physical-mathematical expression. This physical mathematical expression allows the evaluation of the sub surface upwelling irradiance that was generated by the interaction between downwelling irradiance and the water column. The validation of the relation was performed using experimental data collected from five different aquatic ecosystems at different latitudes, solar elevations and irradiance levels. We found a good linear, positive correlation between the theoretical and measured upwelling irradiance (R2 = 0.96. The residues were well distributed, around the null value, according a Gaussian curve (R2 = 0.92. The results confirm the importance and the versatility of the Secchi disk measurements for aquatic optics.

  6. Stochastic analysis of the Lotka-Volterra model for ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, G Q; Lin, Y K

    2004-10-01

    A stochastic Lotka-Volterra-type model for the interaction between the preys and the predators in a random environment is investigated. A self-competition mechanism within the prey population itself is also included. The effect of a random environment is modeled as random variations in the birth rate of the preys and the death rate of the predators. The stochastic averaging procedure of Stratonovich and Khasminskii is applied to obtain the probability distributions of the system state variables at the state of statistical stationarity. Asymptotic behaviors of the system variables are discussed, and the mean transition time from an initial state to a critical state is obtained. Effects on the ecosystem behaviors of the self-competition term, of the random variation in the prey birth rate, and of the random variation in the predator death rate are investigated.

  7. ESTIMAP: A GIS-BASED MODEL TO MAP ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Zulian

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Policies of the European Union which affect the use or protection of natural resources increasingly need spatial data on the supply, the flow and the demand of ecosystem services. The model ESTIMAP was developed to this purpose. ESTIMAP departs from land cover and land use maps to which it adds other spatial information with the objective to map various ecosystem services. This study introduces the ESTIMAP map as tool to support the mapping and modelling of ecosystem services at European scale. Examples are provided for three regulating ecosystem services, air quality regulation, coastal protection, and pollination and one cultural ecosystem services, recreation. 

  8. Habitat restoration from an ecosystem goods and services perspective: Application of a spatially explicit individual-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estuarine ecosystems provide many services to humans, but these ecosystems are also under pressure from human development, which has led to large investments in habitat protection and restoration. Restoration in estuaries is typically focused on emergent and submerged vegetation ...

  9. AI techniques for optimizing multi-objective reservoir operation upon human and riverine ecosystem demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Wen-Ping; Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Herricks, Edwin E.

    2015-11-01

    Flow regime is the key driver of the riverine ecology. This study proposes a novel hybrid methodology based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for quantifying riverine ecosystems requirements and delivering suitable flow regimes that sustain river and floodplain ecology through optimizing reservoir operation. This approach addresses issues to better fit riverine ecosystem requirements with existing human demands. We first explored and characterized the relationship between flow regimes and fish communities through a hybrid artificial neural network (ANN). Then the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) was established for river flow management over the Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. The ecosystem requirement took the form of maximizing fish diversity, which could be estimated by the hybrid ANN. The human requirement was to provide a higher satisfaction degree of water supply. The results demonstrated that the proposed methodology could offer a number of diversified alternative strategies for reservoir operation and improve reservoir operational strategies producing downstream flows that could meet both human and ecosystem needs. Applications that make this methodology attractive to water resources managers benefit from the wide spread of Pareto-front (optimal) solutions allowing decision makers to easily determine the best compromise through the trade-off between reservoir operational strategies for human and ecosystem needs.

  10. Prototyping an online wetland ecosystem services model using open model sharing standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, M.; Liu, S.; Euliss, N.H.; Young, Caitlin; Mushet, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    Great interest currently exists for developing ecosystem models to forecast how ecosystem services may change under alternative land use and climate futures. Ecosystem services are diverse and include supporting services or functions (e.g., primary production, nutrient cycling), provisioning services (e.g., wildlife, groundwater), regulating services (e.g., water purification, floodwater retention), and even cultural services (e.g., ecotourism, cultural heritage). Hence, the knowledge base necessary to quantify ecosystem services is broad and derived from many diverse scientific disciplines. Building the required interdisciplinary models is especially challenging as modelers from different locations and times may develop the disciplinary models needed for ecosystem simulations, and these models must be identified and made accessible to the interdisciplinary simulation. Additional difficulties include inconsistent data structures, formats, and metadata required by geospatial models as well as limitations on computing, storage, and connectivity. Traditional standalone and closed network systems cannot fully support sharing and integrating interdisciplinary geospatial models from variant sources. To address this need, we developed an approach to openly share and access geospatial computational models using distributed Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and open geospatial standards. We included a means to share computational models compliant with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Processing Services (WPS) standard to ensure modelers have an efficient and simplified means to publish new models. To demonstrate our approach, we developed five disciplinary models that can be integrated and shared to simulate a few of the ecosystem services (e.g., water storage, waterfowl breeding) that are provided by wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  11. The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norden, Sara; Soederbaeck, Bjoern (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Andersson, Eva (SWECO, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-11-15

    The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the limnic ecosystems at both Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. This information may be used in the Safety Assessment and as a basis for the Environmental Impact Assessment. Three aims were set up for the report: 1) to characterize and describe the limnic ecosystems today and in the past in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas and compare these ecosystems with limnic ecosystems in other areas; 2) to evaluate and visualize major pools, fluxes and sinks of elements within the limnic ecosystems; and finally 3) to describe human impact on the limnic ecosystems. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components, water chemistry, comparisons with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 20 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in

  12. Leptospirosis in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: An Ecosystem Approach in the Animal-Human Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Maria Cristina; Najera, Patricia; Pereira, Martha M.; Machado, Gustavo; dos Anjos, Celso B.; Rodrigues, Rogério O.; Cavagni, Gabriela M.; Muñoz-Zanzi, Claudia; Corbellini, Luis G.; Leone, Mariana; Buss, Daniel F.; Aldighieri, Sylvain; Espinal, Marcos A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Leptospirosis is an epidemic-prone neglected disease that affects humans and animals, mostly in vulnerable populations. The One Health approach is a recommended strategy to identify drivers of the disease and plan for its prevention and control. In that context, the aim of this study was to analyze the distribution of human cases of leptospirosis in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, and to explore possible drivers. Additionally, it sought to provide further evidence to support interventions and to identify hypotheses for new research at the human-animal-ecosystem interface. Methodology and findings The risk for human infection was described in relation to environmental, socioeconomic, and livestock variables. This ecological study used aggregated data by municipality (all 496). Data were extracted from secondary, publicly available sources. Thematic maps were constructed and univariate analysis performed for all variables. Negative binomial regression was used for multivariable statistical analysis of leptospirosis cases. An annual average of 428 human cases of leptospirosis was reported in the state from 2008 to 2012. The cumulative incidence in rural populations was eight times higher than in urban populations. Variables significantly associated with leptospirosis cases in the final model were: Parana/Paraiba ecoregion (RR: 2.25; CI95%: 2.03–2.49); Neossolo Litolítico soil (RR: 1.93; CI95%: 1.26–2.96); and, to a lesser extent, the production of tobacco (RR: 1.10; CI95%: 1.09–1.11) and rice (RR: 1.003; CI95%: 1.002–1.04). Conclusion Urban cases were concentrated in the capital and rural cases in a specific ecoregion. The major drivers identified in this study were related to environmental and production processes that are permanent features of the state. This study contributes to the basic knowledge on leptospirosis distribution and drivers in the state and encourages a comprehensive approach to address the disease in the animal-human-ecosystem

  13. Earth Observation Data for Mapping and Evaluation of Ecosystem Services to Improve Human Livelihoods and Conserve Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Aurelie C.; Bhagabati, Nirmal

    2010-12-01

    Mapping and evaluating ecosystem services is of increasing concern and urgency for conservation organizations such as WWF. Coupling biodiversity assessments with ecosystem services e.g., carbon sequestration, water regulation, sediment reduction, is an effective way to visualize additional financial and human benefits of conservation for decision makers. WWF is eager to apply various Earth Observation data to conservation applications for consistent mapping and monitoring of natural ecosystems and the potential impacts of their loss on humans and wildlife alike. Such examples include forest carbon mapping, integrated evaluation of ecosystem services (via the InVEST tool) and bundling endangered Tiger habitat with various ecosystem services for bundled benefits.

  14. Ecosystem services of human-dominated watersheds and land use influences: a case study from the Dianchi Lake watershed in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Ying; Li, Bo; Müller, Felix; Chen, Weiping

    2016-11-01

    Watersheds provide multiple ecosystem services. Ecosystem service assessment is a promising approach to investigate human-environment interaction at the watershed scale. The spatial characteristics of ecosystem services are closely related to land use statuses in human-dominated watersheds. This study aims to investigate the effects of land use on the spatial variations of ecosystem services at the Dianchi Lake watershed in Southwest China. We investigated the spatial variations of six ecosystem services-food supply, net primary productivity (NPP), habitat quality, evapotranspiration, water yield, and nitrogen retention. These services were selected based on their significance at the Dianchi Lake watershed and the availability of their data. The quantification of these services was based on modeling, value transference, and spatial analysis in combination with biophysical and socioeconomic data. Furthermore, we calculated the values of ecosystem services provided by different land use types and quantified the correlations between ecosystem service values and land use area proportions. The results show considerable spatial variations in the six ecosystem services associated with land use influences in the Dianchi Lake watershed. The cropland and forest land use types had predominantly positive influences on food productivity and NPP, respectively. The rural residential area and forest land use types reduced and enhanced habitat quality, respectively; these influences were identical to those of evapotranspiration. Urban area and rural residential area exerted significantly positive influences on water yield. In contrast, water yield was negatively correlated with forest area proportion. Finally, cropland and forest had significantly positive and negative influences, respectively, on nitrogen retention. Our study emphasizes the importance of consideration of the influences from land use composition and distribution on ecosystem services for managing the ecosystems of

  15. Comparative Analysis of Two Models of the Strouma River Ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitko Petrov

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available A modified method of regression analysis for modelling of the water quality of river ecosystems is offered. The method is distinguished from the conventional regression analysis of that the factors included in the regression dependence are time functions. Two type functions are tested: polynomial and periodical. The investigations show better results the periodical functions give. In addition, a model for analysis of river quality has been developed, which is a modified method of the time series analysis. The model has been applied for an assessment of water pollution of the Strouma river. An assessment for adequately of the obtained model of the statistical criteria - correlation coefficient, Fisher function and relative error is developed and it shows that the models are adequate and they can be used for modelling of the water pollution on these indexes of the Strouma river. The analysis of the river pollution shows that there is not a materially increase of the anthropogenic impact of the Strouma river in the Bulgarian part for the period from 2001 to 2004.

  16. Modelling the ecosystem effects of nitrogen deposition: Model of Ecosystem Retention and Loss of Inorganic Nitrogen (MERLIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. J. Cosby

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available A catchment-scale mass-balance model of linked carbon and nitrogen cycling in ecosystems has been developed for simulating leaching losses of inorganic nitrogen. The model (MERLIN considers linked biotic and abiotic processes affecting the cycling and storage of nitrogen. The model is aggregated in space and time and contains compartments intended to be observable and/or interpretable at the plot or catchment scale. The structure of the model includes the inorganic soil, a plant compartment and two soil organic compartments. Fluxes in and out of the ecosystem and between compartments are regulated by atmospheric deposition, hydrological discharge, plant uptake, litter production, wood production, microbial immobilization, mineralization, nitrification, and denitrification. Nitrogen fluxes are controlled by carbon productivity, the C:N ratios of organic compartments and inorganic nitrogen in soil solution. Inputs required are: 1 temporal sequences of carbon fluxes and pools- 2 time series of hydrological discharge through the soils, 3 historical and current external sources of inorganic nitrogen; 4 current amounts of nitrogen in the plant and soil organic compartments; 5 constants specifying the nitrogen uptake and immobilization characteristics of the plant and soil organic compartments; and 6 soil characteristics such as depth, porosity, bulk density, and anion/cation exchange constants. Outputs include: 1 concentrations and fluxes of NO3 and NH4 in soil solution and runoff; 2 total nitrogen contents of the organic and inorganic compartments; 3 C:N ratios of the aggregated plant and soil organic compartments; and 4 rates of nitrogen uptake and immobilization and nitrogen mineralization. The behaviour of the model is assessed for a combination of land-use change and nitrogen deposition scenarios in a series of speculative simulations. The results of the simulations are in broad agreement with observed and hypothesized behaviour of nitrogen

  17. Trophic transfer of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) in a boreal lake ecosystem: testing of bioaccumulation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Kaisa; Mäenpää, Kimmo; Leppänen, Matti T; Kiljunen, Mikko; Lyytikäinen, Merja; Kukkonen, Jussi V K; Koponen, Hannu; Biasi, Christina; Martikainen, Pertti J

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the fate of persistent organic chemicals in the environment is fundamental information for the successful protection of ecosystems and humans. A common dilemma in risk assessment is that monitoring data reveals contaminant concentrations in wildlife, while the source concentrations, route of uptake and acceptable source concentrations remain unsolved. To overcome this problem, different models have been developed in order to obtain more precise risk estimates for the food webs. However, there is still an urgent need for studies combining modelled and measured data in order to verify the functionality of the models. Studies utilising field-collected data covering entire food webs are particularly scarce. This study aims to contribute to tackling this problem by determining the validity of two bioaccumulation models, BIOv1.22 and AQUAWEBv1.2, for application to a multispecies aquatic food web. A small boreal lake, Lake Kernaalanjärvi, in Finland was investigated for its food web structure and concentrations of PCBs in all trophic levels. Trophic magnification factors (TMFs) were used to measure the bioaccumulation potential of PCBs, and the site-specific environmental parameters were used to compare predicted and observed concentrations. Site-specific concentrations in sediment pore water did not affect the modelling endpoints, but accurate site-specific measurements of freely dissolved concentrations in water turned out to be crucial for obtaining realistic model-predicted concentrations in biota. Numerous parameters and snapshot values affected the model performances, bringing uncertainty into the process and results, but overall, the models worked well for a small boreal lake ecosystem. We suggest that these models can be optimised for different ecosystems and can be useful tools for estimating the bioaccumulation and environmental fate of PCBs.

  18. Regulations of evapotranspiration and ecosystem productivity from biophysical and human drivers in drylands Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J.; Ouyang, Z.; John, R.; Henebry, G. M.; Xie, Y.; de Beurs, K.; Fan, Y.; Shao, C.; Qi, J.; Wu, J.; Liu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The concept of coupled human and environmental systems (CHES) has been a dominant framework in the past decade for understanding the cohesive connections between natural and human systems. Here we focus on how socio-ecological services may be regulated by the regional and local water cycles and by ecosystem production in the drylands of Northern Asia (>40 degree N), which includes Inner Mongolia of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Total precipitation and evapotranspiration are used as the primary drivers to explain ecosystem production (e.g., GPP) and indicators of social function and structure (e.g., GDP, population) using the data collected from 1980 through 2010 of these seven areas. We hypothesize that the changes in the regional and local water cycles in these contrasting regions and socioeconomic settings significantly affect CHES functioning. Institutional changes, including shifts in policy, can play a much stronger role than those caused by the physical changes in determining the relationships between water cycle and CHES functioning. The complex connections among the biophysical and socioeconomic variables are analyzed through structural equation modeling (SEM) at country and regional scales. The highest water use efficiency (GPP:PET=0.57) was found for Uzbekistan, which also had the highest GDP:GPP (0.66) among the seven areas. In contrast, Mongolia exhibited the lowest values during the study period despite its very high GPP:Population value (45.8). The low population in Mongolia appeared responsible for its rank within the dryland region. Regional institutional changes with global ramifications, such as the collapse of Soviet Union and China joining the World Trade Organization, appears to have affected the CHES of the study areas.

  19. Modelling benthic biophysical drivers of ecosystem structure and biogeochemical response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Nicholas; Bruggeman, Jorn; Lessin, Gennadi; Allen, Icarus

    2016-04-01

    The fate of carbon deposited at the sea floor is ultimately decided by biophysical drivers that control the efficiency of remineralisation and timescale of carbon burial in sediments. Specifically, these drivers include bioturbation through ingestion and movement, burrow-flushing and sediment reworking, which enhance vertical particulate transport and solute diffusion. Unfortunately, these processes are rarely satisfactorily resolved in models. To address this, a benthic model that explicitly describes the vertical position of biology (e.g., habitats) and biogeochemical processes is presented that includes biological functionality and biogeochemical response capturing changes in ecosystem structure, benthic-pelagic fluxes and biodiversity on inter-annual timescales. This is demonstrated by the model's ability to reproduce temporal variability in benthic infauna, vertical pore water nutrients and pelagic-benthic solute fluxes compared to in-situ data. A key advance is the replacement of bulk parameterisation of bioturbation by explicit description of the bio-physical processes responsible. This permits direct comparison with observations and determination of key parameters in experiments. Crucially, the model resolves the two-way interaction between sediment biogeochemistry and ecology, allowing exploration of the benthic response to changing environmental conditions, the importance of infaunal functional traits in shaping benthic ecological structure and the feedback the resulting bio-physical processes exert on pore water nutrient profiles. The model is actively being used to understand shelf sea carbon cycling, the response of the benthos to climatic change, food provision and other societal benefits.

  20. Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fader

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate and land use change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect natural and agricultural ecosystems by decreases in precipitation, increases in temperature as well as biodiversity loss and anthropogenic degradation of natural resources. Demographic growth in the Eastern and Southern shores will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive agro-ecosystem and hydrological model. This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (LPJmL: nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With the development presented in this study, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture with a comprehensive representation of ecophysiological processes for all vegetation types (natural and agricultural and in a consistent framework that produces estimates of carbon, agricultural and hydrological variables for the entire Mediterranean basin. This development pave the way for further model extensions aiming at the representation of alternative agro-ecosystems (e.g. agroforestry, and opens the door for a large number of applications in the Mediterranean region, for example assessments on the consequences of land use transitions, the influence of management practices and climate change impacts.

  1. Environmental and Human Controls of Ecosystem Functional Diversity in Temperate South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domingo Alcaraz-Segura

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The regional controls of biodiversity patterns have been traditionally evaluated using structural and compositional components at the species level, but evaluation of the functional component at the ecosystem level is still scarce. During the last decades, the role of ecosystem functioning in management and conservation has increased. Our aim was to use satellite-derived Ecosystem Functional Types (EFTs, patches of the land-surface with similar carbon gain dynamics to characterize the regional patterns of ecosystem functional diversity and to evaluate the environmental and human controls that determine EFT richness across natural and human-modified systems in temperate South America. The EFT identification was based on three descriptors of carbon gain dynamics derived from seasonal curves of the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI: annual mean (surrogate of primary production, seasonal coefficient of variation (indicator of seasonality and date of maximum EVI (descriptor of phenology. As observed for species richness in the southern hemisphere, water availability, not energy, emerged as the main climatic driver of EFT richness in natural areas of temperate South America. In anthropogenic areas, the role of both water and energy decreased and increasing human intervention increased richness at low levels of human influence, but decreased richness at high levels of human influence.

  2. The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norden, Sara; Soederbaeck, Bjoern (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Andersson, Eva (SWECO, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-11-15

    The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the limnic ecosystems at both Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. This information may be used in the Safety Assessment and as a basis for the Environmental Impact Assessment. Three aims were set up for the report: 1) to characterize and describe the limnic ecosystems today and in the past in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas and compare these ecosystems with limnic ecosystems in other areas; 2) to evaluate and visualize major pools, fluxes and sinks of elements within the limnic ecosystems; and finally 3) to describe human impact on the limnic ecosystems. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components, water chemistry, comparisons with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 20 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in

  3. Linking GIS-based models to value ecosystem services in an Alpine region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne; Bebi, Peter; Bishop, Ian D; Schmid, Willy A

    2008-11-01

    Planning frequently fails to include the valuation of public goods and services. This can have long-term negative economic consequences for a region. This is especially the case in mountainous regions such as the Alps, which depend on tourism and where land-use changes can negatively impact key ecosystem services and hence the economy. In this study, we develop a semi-automatic procedure to value ecosystem goods and services. Several existing process-based models linked to economic valuation methods are integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) platform. The model requires the input of a digital elevation model, a land-cover map, and a spatially explicit temperature dataset. These datasets are available for most regions in Europe. We illustrate the approach by valuing four ecosystem services: avalanche protection, timber production, scenic beauty, and habitat, which are supplied by the "Landschaft Davos", an administrative district in the Swiss Alps. We compare the impacts of a human development scenario and a climate scenario on the value of these ecosystem services. Urban expansion and tourist infrastructure developments have a negative impact on scenic beauty and habitats. These impacts outweigh the benefits of the developments in the long-term. Forest expansion, predictable under a climate change scenario, favours natural avalanche protection and habitats. In general, such non-marketed benefits provided by the case-study region more than compensate for the costs of forest maintenance. Finally, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the approach. Despite its limitations, we show how this approach could well help decision-makers balance the impacts of different planning options on the economic accounting of a region, and guide them in selecting sustainable and economically feasible development strategies.

  4. The Yellowstone hotspot, Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, and human geography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Kenneth L.; Despain, D.G.; Morgan, Lisa A.; Good, John M.; Morgan Morzel, Lisa Ann.

    2007-01-01

    Active geologic processes associated with the Yellowstone hotspot are fundamental in shaping the landscapes of the greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE), a high volcanic plateau flanked by a crescent of still higher mountainous terrain. The processes associated with the Yellowstone hotspot are volcanism, faulting, and uplift and are observed in the geology at the surface. We attribute the driving forces responsible for the northeastward progression of these processes to a thermal plume rising through the Earth’s mantle into the base of the southwest-moving North American plate. This progression began 16 million years ago (Ma) near the Nevada-Oregon border and arrived at Yellowstone about 2 Ma. Before arrival of the hotspot, an older landscape existed, particularly mountains created during the Laramide orogeny about 70–50 Ma and volcanic terrain formed by Absaroka andesitic volcanism mostly between 50–45 Ma. These landscapes were more muted than the present, hotspot-modified landscape because the Laramide-age mountains had worn down and an erosion surface of low relief had developed on the Absaroka volcanic terrain.

  5. Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; van Putten, Ingrid E; Pecl, Gretta T

    2016-07-01

    As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Human activity selectively impacts the ecosystem roles of parrotfishes on coral reefs

    KAUST Repository

    Bellwood, David R.

    2011-11-16

    Around the globe, coral reefs and other marine ecosystems are increasingly overfished. Conventionally, studies of fishing impacts have focused on the population size and dynamics of targeted stocks rather than the broader ecosystem-wide effects of harvesting. Using parrotfishes as an example, we show how coral reef fish populations respond to escalating fishing pressure across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Based on these fish abundance data, we infer the potential impact on four key functional roles performed by parrotfishes. Rates of bioerosion and coral predation are highly sensitive to human activity, whereas grazing and sediment removal are resilient to fishing. Our results offer new insights into the vulnerability and resilience of coral reefs to the ever-growing human footprint. The depletion of fishes causes differential decline of key ecosystem functions, radically changing the dynamics of coral reefs and setting the stage for future ecological surprises. © 2011 The Royal Society.

  7. Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Kristin N; Kaplan, Isaac C; Hodgson, Emma E; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E; Harvey, Chris J; Fulton, Elizabeth A

    2017-04-01

    The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Acid sulfate soils and human health--a Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ljung, Karin; Maley, Fiona; Cook, Angus; Weinstein, Philip

    2009-11-01

    Acid sulfate soils have been described as the "nastiest soils on earth" because of their strong acidity, increased mobility of potentially toxic elements and limited bioavailability of nutrients. They only cover a small area of the world's total problem soils, but often have significant adverse effects on agriculture, aquaculture and the environment on a local scale. Their location often coincides with high population density areas along the coasts of many developing countries. As a result, their negative impacts on ecosystems can have serious implications to those least equipped for coping with the low crop yields and reduced water quality that can result from acid sulfate soil disturbance. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment called on by the United Nations in 2000 emphasised the importance of ecosystems for human health and well-being. These include the service they provide as sources of food and water, through the control of pollution and disease, as well as for the cultural services ecosystems provide. While the problems related to agriculture, aquaculture and the environment have been the focus of many acid sulfate soil management efforts, the connection to human health has largely been ignored. This paper presents the potential health issues of acid sulfate soils, in relation to the ecosystem services identified in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. It is recognised that significant implications on food security and livelihood can result, as well as on community cohesiveness and the spread of vector-borne disease. However, the connection between these outcomes and acid sulfate soils is often not obvious and it is therefore argued that the impact of such soils on human well-being needs to be recognised in order to raise awareness among the public and decision makers, to in turn facilitate proper management and avoid potential human ill-health.

  9. The use of spatial empirical models to estimate soil erosion in arid ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Meshal; Feagin, Rusty; Musawi, Layla

    2017-02-01

    The central objective of this project was to utilize geographical information systems and remote sensing to compare soil erosion models, including Modified Pacific South-west Inter Agency Committee (MPSIAC), Erosion Potential Method (EPM), and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and to determine their applicability for arid regions such as Kuwait. The northern portion of Umm Nigga, containing both coastal and desert ecosystems, falls within the boundaries of the de-militarized zone (DMZ) adjacent to Iraq and has been fenced off to restrict public access since 1994. Results showed that the MPSIAC and EPM models were similar in spatial distribution of erosion, though the MPSIAC had a more realistic spatial distribution of erosion and presented finer level details. The RUSLE presented unrealistic results. We then predicted the amount of soil loss between coastal and desert areas and fenced and unfenced sites for each model. In the MPSIAC and EPM models, soil loss was different between fenced and unfenced sites at the desert areas, which was higher at the unfenced due to the low vegetation cover. The overall results implied that vegetation cover played an important role in reducing soil erosion and that fencing is much more important in the desert ecosystems to protect against human activities such as overgrazing. We conclude that the MPSIAC model is best for predicting soil erosion for arid regions such as Kuwait. We also recommend the integration of field-based experiments with lab-based spatial analysis and modeling in future research.

  10. Modeling Temporal and Spatial Flows of Ecosystem Services in Chittenden County, VT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, B. G.; Bagstad, K.; Johnson, G.; Villa, F.

    2010-12-01

    This paper documents the integration of ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) with the land use change model UrbanSim to explore the impacts of current and future land use patterns on flood protection and water provision services in Chittenden County, VT. ARIES, an open source modeling platform, is particularly well-suited for measuring, mapping, and modeling the temporal and spatial flows of ecosystem services across the landscape, linking the areas of provision (sources) with human beneficiaries (users) through a spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach. UrbanSim is an open source agent-based land use model designed to facilitate a wide-range of scenarios based on user-specified behavioral assumptions, zoning regulations, and demographic, economic, and infrastructure (e.g. transportation, water, sewer, etc.) parameters. Ecosystem services travel through time and space and are susceptible to disruption and destruction from both natural and anthropogenic perturbations. The conversion of forested or agricultural land to urbanizing uses is replete with a long history of hydrologic impairment, habitat fragmentation, and the degradation of sensitive landscapes. Development decisions are predicated on the presence of landscape characteristics that meet the needs of developers and satisfy the desires of consumers, with minimal consideration of access to or effect on the provision of ecosystem services. The County houses nearly 25% of the state’s population and several employment centers that draw labor from throughout the region. Additionally, the County is expected to maintain modest residential and employment growth over the next 30 years, and will continue to serve as the state’s population and employment center. Expected future growth is likely to adversely affect the remaining farm and forest land in the County in the absence of policies to support sustainable development. We demonstrate how ARIES can be used to quantify changes in

  11. Modeling the effects of organic nitrogen uptake by plants on the carbon cycling of boreal ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. Zhu

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Boreal forest and tundra are the major ecosystems in the northern high latitudes in which a large amount of carbon is stored. These ecosystems are nitrogen-limited due to slow mineralization rate of the soil organic nitrogen. Recently, abundant field studies have found that organic nitrogen is another important nitrogen supply for boreal ecosystems. In this study, we incorporated a mechanism that allowed boreal plants to uptake small molecular amino acids into a process-based biogeochemical model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM, to evaluate the impact of organic nitrogen uptake on ecosystem carbon cycling. The new version of the model was evaluated at both boreal forest and tundra sites. We found that the modeled organic nitrogen uptake accounted for 36–87% of total nitrogen uptake by plants in tundra ecosystems and 26–50% for boreal forests, suggesting that tundra ecosystem might have more relied on the organic form of nitrogen than boreal forests. The simulated monthly gross ecosystem production (GPP and net ecosystem production (NEP tended to be larger with the new version of the model since the plant uptake of organic nitrogen alleviated the soil nitrogen limitation especially during the growing season. The sensitivity study indicated that the most important factors controlling the plant uptake of organic nitrogen were the maximum root uptake rate (Imax and the radius of the root (r0 in our model. The model uncertainty due to uncertain parameters associated with organic nitrogen uptake at tundra ecosystem was larger than at boreal forest ecosystems. This study suggests that considering the organic nitrogen uptake by plants is important to boreal ecosystem carbon modeling.

  12. Natural hazards, disasters and human kind: Whither ecosystem management?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mascarenhas, A.; Mudholkar, A.V.

    in the himalayas. Monetary loss due to the tsunami touched 3,242 crore rupees Encroachment of sensitive landforms such as coastal sand dunes and hill slopes is a major concern. As such, the relentless natural hazards culminate in disasters when humans come...

  13. UV radiation in global climate change. Measurements, modeling and effects on ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, Wei; Slusser, James R. (eds.) [Colorado State Univ., CO (United States). Natural Resource Ecology Lab.; Schmoldt, Daniel L. [Waterfront Centre, Washington, DC (United States). Cooperative State Research Education and Extension Service

    2010-07-01

    Numerous studies report that ultraviolet (UV) radiation is harmful to living organisms and detrimental to human health. Growing concerns regarding the increased levels of UV-B radiation that reach the earth's surface have led to the development of ground- and space-based measurement programs. Further study is needed on the measurement, modeling, and effects of UV radiation. The chapters of this book describe the research conducted across the globe over the past three decades in the areas of: (1) current and predicted levels of UV radiation and its associated impact on ecosystems and human health, as well as economic and social implications; (2) new developments in UV instrumentation, advances in calibration (ground- and satellite-based), measurement methods, modeling efforts, and their applications; and (3) the effects of global climate change on UV radiation. (orig.)

  14. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, W.M.; Brainard, Russell E.

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly

  15. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, R.; Mooij, W.M.; Brainard, Russell E.

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly

  16. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, W.M.; Brainard, Russell E.

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly consider

  17. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, R.; Mooij, W.M.; Brainard, Russell E.

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly consider

  18. Cumulative human impacts on Mediterranean and Black Sea marine ecosystems: assessing current pressures and opportunities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fiorenza Micheli

    Full Text Available Management of marine ecosystems requires spatial information on current impacts. In several marine regions, including the Mediterranean and Black Sea, legal mandates and agreements to implement ecosystem-based management and spatial plans provide new opportunities to balance uses and protection of marine ecosystems. Analyses of the intensity and distribution of cumulative impacts of human activities directly connected to the ecological goals of these policy efforts are critically needed. Quantification and mapping of the cumulative impact of 22 drivers to 17 marine ecosystems reveals that 20% of the entire basin and 60-99% of the territorial waters of EU member states are heavily impacted, with high human impact occurring in all ecoregions and territorial waters. Less than 1% of these regions are relatively unaffected. This high impact results from multiple drivers, rather than one individual use or stressor, with climatic drivers (increasing temperature and UV, and acidification, demersal fishing, ship traffic, and, in coastal areas, pollution from land accounting for a majority of cumulative impacts. These results show that coordinated management of key areas and activities could significantly improve the condition of these marine ecosystems.

  19. Cumulative human impacts on Mediterranean and Black Sea marine ecosystems: assessing current pressures and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micheli, Fiorenza; Halpern, Benjamin S; Walbridge, Shaun; Ciriaco, Saul; Ferretti, Francesco; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Lewison, Rebecca; Nykjaer, Leo; Rosenberg, Andrew A

    2013-01-01

    Management of marine ecosystems requires spatial information on current impacts. In several marine regions, including the Mediterranean and Black Sea, legal mandates and agreements to implement ecosystem-based management and spatial plans provide new opportunities to balance uses and protection of marine ecosystems. Analyses of the intensity and distribution of cumulative impacts of human activities directly connected to the ecological goals of these policy efforts are critically needed. Quantification and mapping of the cumulative impact of 22 drivers to 17 marine ecosystems reveals that 20% of the entire basin and 60-99% of the territorial waters of EU member states are heavily impacted, with high human impact occurring in all ecoregions and territorial waters. Less than 1% of these regions are relatively unaffected. This high impact results from multiple drivers, rather than one individual use or stressor, with climatic drivers (increasing temperature and UV, and acidification), demersal fishing, ship traffic, and, in coastal areas, pollution from land accounting for a majority of cumulative impacts. These results show that coordinated management of key areas and activities could significantly improve the condition of these marine ecosystems.

  20. Bottlenecks in the Transferability of Antibiotic Resistance from Natural Ecosystems to Human Bacterial Pathogens

    OpenAIRE

    Martínez, José L.

    2012-01-01

    It is generally accepted that resistance genes acquired by human pathogens through horizontal gene transfer originated in environmental, non-pathogenic bacteria. As a consequence, there is increasing concern on the roles that natural, non-clinical ecosystems, may play in the evolution of resistance. Recent studies have shown that the variability of determinants that can provide antibiotic resistance on their expression in a heterologous host is much larger than what is actually found in human...

  1. HUMAN-INDUCED CHANGES IN ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE PETROŞANI DEPRESSION (SOUTHERN CARPATHIANS, ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANDRA COSTACHE

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the changes in ecosystem services in the most important coal field from the Southern Carpathians (Romania. The time horizon considered is the interval 1950-2010, characterized by two major processes: intensive development of the mining industry (1950-1989 and subsequent restructuring of mining, with significant consequences since 1996. Socio-economic phenomena associated with these two stages in the evolution of the region have generated major changes in ecosystem services, leading to increased human vulnerability, both to extreme events (natural hazards and pressure from economic factors.

  2. Building a framework to explore water-human interaction for sustainable agro ecosystems in US Midwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, S. K.; Ding, D.; Rapolu, U.

    2012-12-01

    Human activity is intricately linked to the quality and quantity of water resources. Although many studies have examined water-human interaction, the complexity of such coupled systems is not well understood largely because of gaps in our knowledge of water-cycle processes which are heavily influenced by socio-economic drivers. On this context, this team has investigated connections among agriculture, policy, climate, land use/land cover, and water quality in Iowa over the past couple of years. To help explore these connections the team is developing a variety of cyber infrastructure tools that facilitate the collection, analysis and visualization of data, and the simulation of system dynamics. In an ongoing effort, the prototype system is applied to Clear Creek watershed, an agricultural dominating catchment in Iowa in the US Midwest, to understand water-human processes relevant to management decisions by farmers regarding agro ecosystems. The primary aim of this research is to understand the connections that exist among the agricultural and biofuel economy, land use/land cover change, and water quality. To help explore these connections an agent-based model (ABM) of land use change has been developed that simulates the decisions made by farmers given alternative assumptions about market forces, farmer characteristics, and water quality regulations. The SWAT model was used to simulate the impact of these decisions on the movement of sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus across the landscape. The paper also demonstrate how through the use of this system researchers can, for example, search for scenarios that lead to desirable socio-economic outcomes as well as preserve water quantity and quality.

  3. Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, Annette B.G.; Arhonditsis, George B.; Beusen, Arthur; Bolding, Karsten; Bruce, Louise; Bruggeman, Jorn; Couture, Raoul-Marie; Downing, Andrea S.; Alex Elliott, J.; Frassl, Marieke A.; Gal, Gideon; Gerla, Daan J.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hu, Fenjuan; Ives, Stephen C.; Janse, Jan H.; Jeppesen, Erik; Jöhnk, Klaus D.; Kneis, David; Kong, Xiangshen; Kuiper, Jan J.; Lehmann, Moritz K.; Lemmen, Carsten; Özkundakci, Deniz; Petzoldt, Thomas; Rinke, Karsten; Robson, Barbara J.; Sachse, Rene; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Schmid, Martin; Scholten, Huub; Teurlincx, Sven; Trolle, Dennis; Troost, Tineke A.; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Gerven, Luuk P.A.; Weijerman, Mariska; Wells, Scott A.; Mooij, Wolf M.

    2015-01-01

    Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality mana

  4. Global Human Footprint on the Linkage between Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning in Reef Fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora, Camilo; Aburto-Oropeza, Octavio; Ayala Bocos, Arturo; Ayotte, Paula M.; Banks, Stuart; Bauman, Andrew G.; Beger, Maria; Bessudo, Sandra; Booth, David J.; Brokovich, Eran; Brooks, Andrew; Chabanet, Pascale; Cinner, Joshua E.; Cortés, Jorge; Cruz-Motta, Juan J.; Cupul Magaña, Amilcar; DeMartini, Edward E.; Edgar, Graham J.; Feary, David A.; Ferse, Sebastian C. A.; Friedlander, Alan M.; Gaston, Kevin J.; Gough, Charlotte; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Green, Alison; Guzman, Hector; Hardt, Marah; Kulbicki, Michel; Letourneur, Yves; López Pérez, Andres; Loreau, Michel; Loya, Yossi; Martinez, Camilo; Mascareñas-Osorio, Ismael; Morove, Tau; Nadon, Marc-Olivier; Nakamura, Yohei; Paredes, Gustavo; Polunin, Nicholas V. C.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Reyes Bonilla, Héctor; Rivera, Fernando; Sala, Enric; Sandin, Stuart A.; Soler, German; Stuart-Smith, Rick; Tessier, Emmanuel; Tittensor, Derek P.; Tupper, Mark; Usseglio, Paolo; Vigliola, Laurent; Wantiez, Laurent; Williams, Ivor; Wilson, Shaun K.; Zapata, Fernando A.

    2011-01-01

    Difficulties in scaling up theoretical and experimental results have raised controversy over the consequences of biodiversity loss for the functioning of natural ecosystems. Using a global survey of reef fish assemblages, we show that in contrast to previous theoretical and experimental studies, ecosystem functioning (as measured by standing biomass) scales in a non-saturating manner with biodiversity (as measured by species and functional richness) in this ecosystem. Our field study also shows a significant and negative interaction between human population density and biodiversity on ecosystem functioning (i.e., for the same human density there were larger reductions in standing biomass at more diverse reefs). Human effects were found to be related to fishing, coastal development, and land use stressors, and currently affect over 75% of the world's coral reefs. Our results indicate that the consequences of biodiversity loss in coral reefs have been considerably underestimated based on existing knowledge and that reef fish assemblages, particularly the most diverse, are greatly vulnerable to the expansion and intensity of anthropogenic stressors in coastal areas. PMID:21483714

  5. Global human footprint on the linkage between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in reef fishes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilo Mora

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Difficulties in scaling up theoretical and experimental results have raised controversy over the consequences of biodiversity loss for the functioning of natural ecosystems. Using a global survey of reef fish assemblages, we show that in contrast to previous theoretical and experimental studies, ecosystem functioning (as measured by standing biomass scales in a non-saturating manner with biodiversity (as measured by species and functional richness in this ecosystem. Our field study also shows a significant and negative interaction between human population density and biodiversity on ecosystem functioning (i.e., for the same human density there were larger reductions in standing biomass at more diverse reefs. Human effects were found to be related to fishing, coastal development, and land use stressors, and currently affect over 75% of the world's coral reefs. Our results indicate that the consequences of biodiversity loss in coral reefs have been considerably underestimated based on existing knowledge and that reef fish assemblages, particularly the most diverse, are greatly vulnerable to the expansion and intensity of anthropogenic stressors in coastal areas.

  6. Influence of productivity on the stability of real and model ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, J.C. (Univ. of Northern Colorado, Greeley, CO (United States)); Ruiter, P.C. de (DLO-Institute for Soil Fertility Research, Groningen (Netherlands)); Hunt, H.W. (Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States))

    1993-08-13

    The lengths of food chains within ecosystems have been thought to be limited either by the productivity of the ecosystem or by the resilience of that ecosystem after perturbation. Models based on ecological energetics that follow the form of Lotka-Volterra equations and equations that include material (detritus) recycling show that productivity and resilience are inextricably interrelated. The models were initialized with data from 5- to 10-year studies of actual soil food webs. Estimates indicate that most ecological production worldwide is from ecosystems that are themselves sufficiently productive to recover from minor perturbations.

  7. Impact of human interventions on mangrove ecosystem in spatial perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasyid, Abd.; Akbar AS, M.; Nurdin, Nurjannah; Jaya, Ilham; Ibrahim

    2016-11-01

    Climate change components that affect mangroves include changes in sea level, high water events, storms, precipitation, temperature, and oceanic circulation. Cumulative impacts of these factors have a distinct synergy with respect to an accelerated rate of mangrove degradation. development of coastal agricultural land and shrimp farming ponds in intertidal areas are considered as the major factors behind mangrove delineation. There is no agreement for the extensive of mangrove forest in Indonesia, but invarious forums it is usually used the number of 4.25 million ha for that. At approximately 9 years ago, the extensive vast of mangrove forest in Indonesia was about 4.13 million ha but now it is only 2.49 million ha (60%). The methodology of this study consisted of two main steps: (1) image analysis, and (2) post classification. The aim of this study is to analysis the human intervention base on spatial dynamic of mangrove. The study site was selected Sagara island in Spermonde Archipelago. The results of analyze shows that decreasing of mangrove is caused human intervention.

  8. Fine-Scale Cartography of Human Impacts along French Mediterranean Coasts: A Relevant Map for the Management of Marine Ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Holon

    Full Text Available Ecosystem services provided by oceans and seas support most human needs but are threatened by human activities. Despite existing maps illustrating human impacts on marine ecosystems, information remains either large-scale but rough and insufficient for stakeholders (1 km² grid, lack of data along the coast or fine-scale but fragmentary and heterogeneous in methodology. The objectives of this study are to map and quantify the main pressures exerted on near-coast marine ecosystems, at a large spatial scale though in fine and relevant resolution for managers (one pixel = 20 x 20 m. It focuses on the French Mediterranean coast (1,700 km of coastline including Corsica at a depth of 0 to 80 m. After completing and homogenizing data presently available under GIS on the bathymetry and anthropogenic pressures but also on the seabed nature and ecosystem vulnerability, we provide a fine modeling of the extent and impacts of 10 anthropogenic pressures on marine habitats. The considered pressures are man-made coastline, boat anchoring, aquaculture, urban effluents, industrial effluents, urbanization, agriculture, coastline erosion, coastal population and fishing. A 1:10 000 continuous habitat map is provided considering 11 habitat classes. The marine bottom is mostly covered by three habitats: infralittoral soft bottom, Posidonia oceanica meadows and circalittoral soft bottom. Around two thirds of the bottoms are found within medium and medium high cumulative impact categories. Seagrass meadows are the most impacted habitats. The most important pressures (in area and intensity are urbanization, coastal population, coastal erosion and man-made coastline. We also identified areas in need of a special management interest. This work should contribute to prioritize environmental needs, as well as enhance the development of indicators for the assessment of the ecological status of coastal systems. It could also help better apply and coordinate management measures

  9. Fine-Scale Cartography of Human Impacts along French Mediterranean Coasts: A Relevant Map for the Management of Marine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holon, Florian; Mouquet, Nicolas; Boissery, Pierre; Bouchoucha, Marc; Delaruelle, Gwenaelle; Tribot, Anne-Sophie; Deter, Julie

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem services provided by oceans and seas support most human needs but are threatened by human activities. Despite existing maps illustrating human impacts on marine ecosystems, information remains either large-scale but rough and insufficient for stakeholders (1 km² grid, lack of data along the coast) or fine-scale but fragmentary and heterogeneous in methodology. The objectives of this study are to map and quantify the main pressures exerted on near-coast marine ecosystems, at a large spatial scale though in fine and relevant resolution for managers (one pixel = 20 x 20 m). It focuses on the French Mediterranean coast (1,700 km of coastline including Corsica) at a depth of 0 to 80 m. After completing and homogenizing data presently available under GIS on the bathymetry and anthropogenic pressures but also on the seabed nature and ecosystem vulnerability, we provide a fine modeling of the extent and impacts of 10 anthropogenic pressures on marine habitats. The considered pressures are man-made coastline, boat anchoring, aquaculture, urban effluents, industrial effluents, urbanization, agriculture, coastline erosion, coastal population and fishing. A 1:10 000 continuous habitat map is provided considering 11 habitat classes. The marine bottom is mostly covered by three habitats: infralittoral soft bottom, Posidonia oceanica meadows and circalittoral soft bottom. Around two thirds of the bottoms are found within medium and medium high cumulative impact categories. Seagrass meadows are the most impacted habitats. The most important pressures (in area and intensity) are urbanization, coastal population, coastal erosion and man-made coastline. We also identified areas in need of a special management interest. This work should contribute to prioritize environmental needs, as well as enhance the development of indicators for the assessment of the ecological status of coastal systems. It could also help better apply and coordinate management measures at a relevant

  10. Fine-Scale Cartography of Human Impacts along French Mediterranean Coasts: A Relevant Map for the Management of Marine Ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holon, Florian; Mouquet, Nicolas; Boissery, Pierre; Bouchoucha, Marc; Delaruelle, Gwenaelle; Tribot, Anne-Sophie; Deter, Julie

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem services provided by oceans and seas support most human needs but are threatened by human activities. Despite existing maps illustrating human impacts on marine ecosystems, information remains either large-scale but rough and insufficient for stakeholders (1 km² grid, lack of data along the coast) or fine-scale but fragmentary and heterogeneous in methodology. The objectives of this study are to map and quantify the main pressures exerted on near-coast marine ecosystems, at a large spatial scale though in fine and relevant resolution for managers (one pixel = 20 x 20 m). It focuses on the French Mediterranean coast (1,700 km of coastline including Corsica) at a depth of 0 to 80 m. After completing and homogenizing data presently available under GIS on the bathymetry and anthropogenic pressures but also on the seabed nature and ecosystem vulnerability, we provide a fine modeling of the extent and impacts of 10 anthropogenic pressures on marine habitats. The considered pressures are man-made coastline, boat anchoring, aquaculture, urban effluents, industrial effluents, urbanization, agriculture, coastline erosion, coastal population and fishing. A 1:10 000 continuous habitat map is provided considering 11 habitat classes. The marine bottom is mostly covered by three habitats: infralittoral soft bottom, Posidonia oceanica meadows and circalittoral soft bottom. Around two thirds of the bottoms are found within medium and medium high cumulative impact categories. Seagrass meadows are the most impacted habitats. The most important pressures (in area and intensity) are urbanization, coastal population, coastal erosion and man-made coastline. We also identified areas in need of a special management interest. This work should contribute to prioritize environmental needs, as well as enhance the development of indicators for the assessment of the ecological status of coastal systems. It could also help better apply and coordinate management measures at a relevant

  11. Computational human body models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, J.S.H.M.; Happee, R.; Dommelen, J.A.W. van

    2005-01-01

    Computational human body models are widely used for automotive crashsafety research and design and as such have significantly contributed to a reduction of traffic injuries and fatalities. Currently crash simulations are mainly performed using models based on crash-dummies. However crash dummies dif

  12. Computational human body models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, J.S.H.M.; Happee, R.; Dommelen, J.A.W. van

    2005-01-01

    Computational human body models are widely used for automotive crashsafety research and design and as such have significantly contributed to a reduction of traffic injuries and fatalities. Currently crash simulations are mainly performed using models based on crash-dummies. However crash dummies

  13. Development of simplified ecosystem models for applications in Earth system studies: The Century experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parton, William J.; Ojima, Dennis S.; Schimel, David S.; Kittel, Timothy G. F.

    1992-01-01

    During the past decade, a growing need to conduct regional assessments of long-term trends of ecosystem behavior and the technology to meet this need have converged. The Century model is the product of research efforts initially intended to develop a general model of plant-soil ecosystem dynamics for the North American central grasslands. This model is now being used to simulate plant production, nutrient cycling, and soil organic matter dynamics for grassland, crop, forest, and shrub ecosystems in various regions of the world, including temperate and tropical ecosystems. This paper will focus on the philosophical approach used to develop the structure of Century. The steps included were model simplification, parameterization, and testing. In addition, the importance of acquiring regional data bases for model testing and the present regional application of Century in the Great Plains, which focus on regional ecosystem dynamics and the effect of altering environmental conditions, are discussed.

  14. Changes in Nature's Balance Sheet: Model-based Estimates of Future Worldwide Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Alcamo

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Four quantitative scenarios are presented that describe changes in worldwide ecosystem services up to 2050-2100. A set of soft-linked global models of human demography, economic development, climate, and biospheric processes are used to quantify these scenarios. The global demand for ecosystem services substantially increases up to 2050: cereal consumption by a factor of 1.5 to 1.7, fish consumption (up to the 2020s by a factor of 1.3 to 1.4, water withdrawals by a factor of 1.3 to 2.0, and biofuel production by a factor of 5.1 to 11.3. The ranges for these estimates reflect differences between the socio-economic assumptions of the scenarios. In all simulations, Sub-Saharan Africa continues to lag behind other parts of the world. Although the demand side of these scenarios presents an overall optimistic view of the future, the supply side is less optimistic: the risk of higher soil erosion (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and lower water availability (especially in the Middle East could slow down an increase in food production. Meanwhile, increasing wastewater discharges during the same period, especially in Latin America (factor of 2 to 4 and Sub-Saharan Africa (factor of 3.6 to 5.6 could interfere with the delivery of freshwater services. Marine fisheries (despite the growth of aquaculture may not have the ecological capacity to provide for the increased global demand for fish. Our simulations also show an intensification of present tradeoffs between ecosystem services, e.g., expansion of agricultural land (between 2000 and 2050 may be one of the main causes of a 10%-20% loss of total current grassland and forest land and the ecosystem services associated with this land (e.g., genetic resources, wood production, habitat for terrestrial biota and fauna. The scenarios also show that certain hot-spot regions may experience especially rapid changes in ecosystem services: the central part of Africa, southern Asia, and the Middle East. In general

  15. Radionuclide transfer in marine coastal ecosystems, a modelling study using metabolic processes and site data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konovalenko, L; Bradshaw, C; Kumblad, L; Kautsky, U

    2014-07-01

    This study implements new site-specific data and improved process-based transport model for 26 elements (Ac, Ag, Am, Ca, Cl, Cm, Cs, Ho, I, Nb, Ni, Np, Pa, Pb, Pd, Po, Pu, Ra, Se, Sm, Sn, Sr, Tc, Th, U, Zr), and validates model predictions with site measurements and literature data. The model was applied in the safety assessment of a planned nuclear waste repository in Forsmark, Öregrundsgrepen (Baltic Sea). Radionuclide transport models are central in radiological risk assessments to predict radionuclide concentrations in biota and doses to humans. Usually concentration ratios (CRs), the ratio of the measured radionuclide concentration in an organism to the concentration in water, drive such models. However, CRs vary with space and time and CR estimates for many organisms are lacking. In the model used in this study, radionuclides were assumed to follow the circulation of organic matter in the ecosystem and regulated by radionuclide-specific mechanisms and metabolic rates of the organisms. Most input parameters were represented by log-normally distributed probability density functions (PDFs) to account for parameter uncertainty. Generally, modelled CRs for grazers, benthos, zooplankton and fish for the 26 elements were in good agreement with site-specific measurements. The uncertainty was reduced when the model was parameterized with site data, and modelled CRs were most similar to measured values for particle reactive elements and for primary consumers. This study clearly demonstrated that it is necessary to validate models with more than just a few elements (e.g. Cs, Sr) in order to make them robust. The use of PDFs as input parameters, rather than averages or best estimates, enabled the estimation of the probable range of modelled CR values for the organism groups, an improvement over models that only estimate means. Using a mechanistic model that is constrained by ecological processes enables (i) the evaluation of the relative importance of food and water

  16. Study on Soil and Water Conservation Benefit Models of Grassland Ecosystem-A Case Study on Jianou Mountain Grassland Ecosystem

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Lian-qi; WANG Yu-biao; ZHAO Qing-liang

    2001-01-01

    This paper studies the mechanism of grassland ecosystem's soil and water conservation function on the basis of two years experiment and inspection in Jianou mountain grassland ecosystem experiment station, Fujian province. After analysis on the data of soil erosion and runoff coefficient, relations between eroded soil. runoff and slope gradient, we establish soil and water conservation benefit models. According to the models, experiment and inspection results, some proposals have been made to decrease the area of soil erosion in Fujian mountainous areas, e. g. , optimizing land use structure in mountainous areas, taking suitable measures for local condition, closing hills for grassland development, accelerating restoration and raising quality of mountain grassland ecosystem, strengthening scientific and technological input, breeding the grass species that are suitable to local physical geographic condition.

  17. Hydrologic Modeling of Urbanizing Oregon Basins for Water-Related Ecosystem Service Assessment using SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Psaris, A. M.; Chang, H.; Winfield, T.; Lambrinos, J.

    2012-12-01

    Since humans rely on nature for certain goods and services, there should be accurate economic representations for them. These goods and services are commonly called ecosystem services. Our research seeks to investigate how water-related ecosystem services - water yield, sediment retention, and nutrient retention, can be measured and quantified spatially, and explores how the issue of scale affects these measurements. The water model of the ecosystem service evaluation tool Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff (InVEST) is being tested against the well-known, physically based model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) in the Yamhill and Tualatin basins, located in Oregon, USA. Both models are being used to assess the potential hydrologic changes that may result from climate and land use changes in the middle of the 21st century. We build a total of five sub-basin models representing an urban-rural gradient, and use SWAT-CUP for calibration. Our study area contains a mixture of forested, agricultural, and developed land, and the Tualatin River is a regulated river with one dam and four wastewater treatment plants. Fanno Creek is a highly developed subwatershed of Tualatin and has the best model results with an NSE = 0.87 and a % BIAS = -1.15 after calibration for simulating monthly hydrograph. Dairy Creek is a forested sub-basin of the Tualatin and has an NSE = 0.72 and a % BIAS = 0.29. The upstream Tualatin gage (Dilley) has good results with an NSE = 0.77 and a % BIAS = 2.50 after calibration. While the Dilley results are acceptable, the monthly hydrograph shows clear problems during the summer due to water releases from Hagg Lake and Barney reservoirs which are not included in the model at this time. Yamhill basin has an NSE = 0.80 and a % BIAS = -13.0. This basin is mostly agricultural land which utilizes water withdrawls for irrigation. This may account for the consistent over estimation of flow. Finally, the whole Tualatin River basin has an

  18. Ecosystem models. (Latest citations from the NTIS bibliographic database). Published Search

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the design and applications of ecosystem models. Ecosystem simulation and characterization models, together with models for marine biology, plants, microorganisms, and food chains, are described. Models that assess the effect of pollutants on specific environments and habitat suitability index models are also included. (Contains 50-250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.) (Copyright NERAC, Inc. 1995)

  19. Optimising the management of complex dynamic ecosystems. An ecological-economic modelling approach

    OpenAIRE

    Hein, L.G.

    2005-01-01

    Keywords: ecological-economic modelling; ecosystem services; resource use; efficient; sustainability; wetlands, rangelands.Ecosystems supply a wide range of goods and services to mankind. This includes, for example, timber supplied by forests, and animal feed supplied by rangeland systems. In addition, ecosystems supply a range of essential life support services, such as the regulation of climatic and biochemical processes, and they have a non-use value related to their importance for the con...

  20. Modeling Coastal Ocean Optical Properties for Coupled Circulation and Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    Modeling Coastal Ocean Optical Properties for Coupled Circulation and Ecosystem Models Curtis D. Mobley Sequoia Scientific , Inc. 2700 Richards...N00014D01610002 http://www.onr.navy.mil/sci_tech/32/322/ocean_optics_biology.asp LONG-TERM GOAL The overall goal of this work , now completed, was to...wrong by orders of magnitude in Case 2 or optically shallow waters. The objective of this work was develop a radiative transfer model that can be

  1. FOREST ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTIVE MODELLING IN EASTERN HIMALAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. S. Kushwaha

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM. The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975–1990 as well as 1990–2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975–1990 and 1990–2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97% between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81% during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05% by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  2. Modeling of Heavy Metal Transformation in Soil Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinichenko, Kira; Nikovskaya, Galina N.

    2017-04-01

    The intensification of industrial activity leads to an increase in heavy metals pollution of soils. In our opinion, sludge from biological treatment of municipal waste water, stabilized under aerobic-anaerobic conditions (commonly known as biosolid), may be considered as concentrate of natural soil. In their chemical, physical and chemical and biological properties these systems are similar gel-like nanocomposites. These contain microorganisms, humic substances, clay, clusters of nanoparticles of heavy metal compounds, and so on involved into heteropolysaccharides matrix. It is known that microorganisms play an important role in the transformation of different nature substances in soil and its health maintenance. The regularities of transformation of heavy metal compounds in soil ecosystem were studied at the model of biosolid. At biosolid swelling its structure changing (gel-sol transition, weakening of coagulation contacts between metal containing nanoparticles, microbial cells and metabolites, loosening and even destroying of the nanocomposite structure) can occur [1, 2]. The promotion of the sludge heterotrophic microbial activities leads to solubilization of heavy metal compounds in the system. The microbiological process can be realized in alcaligeneous or acidogeneous regimes in dependence on the type of carbon source and followed by the synthesis of metabolites with the properties of flocculants and heavy metals extragents [3]. In this case the heavy metals solubilization (bioleaching) in the form of nanoparticles of hydroxycarbonate complexes or water soluble complexes with oxycarbonic acids is observed. Under the action of biosolid microorganisms the heavy metals-oxycarbonic acids complexes can be transformed (catabolised) into nano-sizing heavy metals- hydroxycarbonates complexes. These ecologically friendly complexes and microbial heteropolysaccharides are able to interact with soil colloids, stay in the top soil profile, and improve soil structure due

  3. Adjoint Assimilation in Marine Ecosystem Models and an Example of Application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Qing; LIU Yuguang; L(U) Xianqing

    2005-01-01

    This paper aims at a review of the work carried out to date on the adjoint assimilation of data in marine ecosystem models since 1995. The structure and feature of the adjoint assimilation in marine ecosystem models are also introduced.To illustrate the application of the adjoint technique and its merits, a 4-variable ecosystem model coupled with a 3-D physical model is established for the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. The chlorophyll concentration data derived from the SeaWiFS ocean colour data are assimilated in the model with the technique. Some results are briefly presented.

  4. Ecosystem performance monitoring of rangelands by integrating modeling and remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen P.; Major, Donald J.

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring rangeland ecosystem dynamics, production, and performance is valuable for researchers and land managers. However, ecosystem monitoring studies can be difficult to interpret and apply appropriately if management decisions and disturbances are inseparable from the ecosystem's climate signal. This study separates seasonal weather influences from influences caused by disturbances and management decisions, making interannual time-series analysis more consistent and interpretable. We compared the actual ecosystem performance (AEP) of five rangeland vegetation types in the Owyhee Uplands for 9 yr to their expected ecosystem performance (EEP). Integrated growing season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data for each of the nine growing seasons served as a proxy for annual AEP. Regression-tree models used long-term site potential, seasonal weather, and land cover data sets to generate annual EEP, an estimate of ecosystem performance incorporating annual weather variations. The difference between AEP and EEP provided a performance measure for each pixel in the study area. Ecosystem performance anomalies occurred when the ecosystem performed significantly better or worse than the model predicted. About 14% of the Owyhee Uplands showed a trend of significant underperformance or overperformance (P<0.10). Land managers can use results from weather-based rangeland ecosystem performance models to help support adaptive management strategies.

  5. A Conceptual Model of Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers and Their Influence on the Prince William Sound, Alaska, Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwell, Mark A.; Gentile, John H.; Cummins, Kenneth W.; Highsmith, Raymond C.; Hilborn, Ray; McRoy, C. Peter; Parrish, Julia; Weingartner, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Prince William Sound (PWS) is a semi-enclosed fjord estuary on the coast of Alaska adjoining the northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA). PWS is highly productive and diverse, with primary productivity strongly coupled to nutrient dynamics driven by variability in the climate and oceanography of the GOA and North Pacific Ocean. The pelagic and nearshore primary productivity supports a complex and diverse trophic structure, including large populations of forage and large fish that support many species of marine birds and mammals. High intra-annual, inter-annual, and interdecadal variability in climatic and oceanographic processes as drives high variability in the biological populations. A risk-based conceptual ecosystem model (CEM) is presented describing the natural processes, anthropogenic drivers, and resultant stressors that affect PWS, including stressors caused by the Great Alaska Earthquake of 1964 and the Exxon Valdez oil spill of 1989. A trophodynamic model incorporating PWS valued ecosystem components is integrated into the CEM. By representing the relative strengths of driver/stressors/effects, the CEM graphically demonstrates the fundamental dynamics of the PWS ecosystem, the natural forces that control the ecological condition of the Sound, and the relative contribution of natural processes and human activities to the health of the ecosystem. The CEM illustrates the dominance of natural processes in shaping the structure and functioning of the GOA and PWS ecosystems. PMID:20862192

  6. Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li

    2016-05-01

    As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.

  7. Ecological service assessment of human-dominated freshwater ecosystem with a case study in Yangzhou Prefecture,China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YE Ya-ping; WANG Ru-song; REN Jing-ming; HU Dan; YUAN Shao-jun; WANG Min

    2004-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems provide a host of services to humanity. These services are now rapidly being lost, not least because of the inability of making the impacts measurable. To overcome this obstacle, assessment frameworks for freshwater ecosystem services are needed. A simple water equivalent framework to assess the ecological services provided by freshwater ecosystems was developed in this study. It translated the occupation of freshwater ecosystem services into biologically freshwater volumes and then compares this consumption to the freshwater throughput, that is, the ecological capacity available in this region. In this way, we use the example of Yangzhou Prefecture, to account the main categories of human occupation of water ecosystem services. The result showed that there is a huge gap between the consumption and the supply of freshwater ecosystem services. This must encourage local government to make land-use and water management decisions both economically rational and environmentally sound.

  8. Atlantis Modeled Output Data for the Coral Reef Ecosystems of Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A proof-of-concept Guam Atlantis Coral Reef Ecosystem Model has been developed and an added coral module to the Atlantis framework has been validated. The model is...

  9. Human migraine models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Helle Klingenberg

    2001-01-01

    The need for experimental models is obvious. In animal models it is possible to study vascular responses, neurogenic inflammation, c-fos expression etc. However, the pathophysiology of migraine remains unsolved, why results from animal studies not directly can be related to the migraine attack......, which is a human experience. A set-up for investigations of experimental headache and migraine in humans, has been evaluated and headache mechanisms explored by using nitroglycerin and other headache-inducing agents. Nitric oxide (NO) or other parts of the NO activated cascade seems to be responsible...

  10. Modeled responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO2: A comparison of simulations by the biogeochemistry models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Y.; Melillo, J.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Pitelka, L.F.; Hibbard, K.; Pierce, L.L.; Running, S.W.; Ojima, D.S.; Parton, W.J.; Schimel, D.S.; Borchers, J.; Neilson, R.; Fisher, H.H.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Rossenbloom, N.A.; Fox, S.; Haxeltine, A.; Prentice, I.C.; Sitch, S.; Janetos, A.; McKeown, R.; Nemani, R.; Painter, T.; Rizzo, B.; Smith, T.; Woodward, F.I.

    1998-01-01

    Although there is a great deal of information concerning responses to increases in atmospheric CO2 at the tissue and plant levels, there are substantially fewer studies that have investigated ecosystem-level responses in the context of integrated carbon, water, and nutrient cycles. Because our understanding of ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 is incomplete, modeling is a tool that can be used to investigate the role of plant and soil interactions in the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated CO2. In this study, we analyze the responses of net primary production (NPP) to doubled CO2 from 355 to 710 ppmv among three biogeochemistry models in the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), Century, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). For the conterminous United States, doubled atmospheric CO2 causes NPP to increase by 5% in Century, 8% in TEM, and 11% in BIOME-BGC. Multiple regression analyses between the NPP response to doubled CO2 and the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of biomes or grid cells indicate that there are negative relationships between precipitation and the response of NPP to doubled CO2 for all three models. In contrast, there are different relationships between temperature and the response of NPP to doubled CO2 for the three models: there is a negative relationship in the responses of BIOME-BGC, no relationship in the responses of Century, and a positive relationship in the responses of TEM. In BIOME-BGC, the NPP response to doubled CO2 is controlled by the change in transpiration associated with reduced leaf conductance to water vapor. This change affects soil water, then leaf area development and, finally, NPP. In Century, the response of NPP to doubled CO2 is controlled by changes in decomposition rates associated with increased soil moisture that results from reduced evapotranspiration. This change affects nitrogen availability for plants, which influences NPP. In

  11. Projecting global land-use change and its effect on ecosystem service provision and biodiversity with simple models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Nelson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: As the global human population grows and its consumption patterns change, additional land will be needed for living space and agricultural production. A critical question facing global society is how to meet growing human demands for living space, food, fuel, and other materials while sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity [1]. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We spatially allocate two scenarios of 2000 to 2015 global areal change in urban land and cropland at the grid cell-level and measure the impact of this change on the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The models and techniques used to spatially allocate land-use/land-cover (LULC change and evaluate its impact on ecosystems are relatively simple and transparent [2]. The difference in the magnitude and pattern of cropland expansion across the two scenarios engenders different tradeoffs among crop production, provision of species habitat, and other important ecosystem services such as biomass carbon storage. For example, in one scenario, 5.2 grams of carbon stored in biomass is released for every additional calorie of crop produced across the globe; under the other scenario this tradeoff rate is 13.7. By comparing scenarios and their impacts we can begin to identify the global pattern of cropland and irrigation development that is significant enough to meet future food needs but has less of an impact on ecosystem service and habitat provision. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Urban area and croplands will expand in the future to meet human needs for living space, livelihoods, and food. In order to jointly provide desired levels of urban land, food production, and ecosystem service and species habitat provision the global society will have to become much more strategic in its allocation of intensively managed land uses. Here we illustrate a method for quickly and transparently evaluating the performance of potential global futures.

  12. Examining Ecological and Ecosystem Level Impacts of Aquatic Invasive Species in Lake Michigan Using An Ecosystem Productivity Model, LM-Eco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological and ecosystem-level impacts of aquatic invasive species in Lake Michigan were examined using the Lake Michigan Ecosystem Model (LM-Eco). The LM-Eco model includes a detailed description of trophic levels and their interactions within the lower food web of Lake Michiga...

  13. An integrated model of human-wildlife interdependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, Kun H.; Walsh, Richard G.; Johnson, R. L.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to integrate wildlife-related ecologic and economic variables into an econometric model. The model reveals empirical evidence of the presumed interdependence of human-wildlife and the holistic nature of humanity's relationship to the ecosystem. Human use of biologic resources varies not only with income, education, and population, but also with sustainability of humankind's action relative to the quality and quantity of the supporting ecological base.

  14. Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

    2012-09-01

    End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed

  15. One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of

  16. New Model for Ecosystem Management Interpretation: Target Audiences on Military Lands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Susan K.; Marynowski, Susan B.

    1998-01-01

    An interpretation model focusing on audience characteristics guided development of an ecosystem-management interpretive program targeting military leaders and planners at Eglin Air Force Base (Florida). Of five interpretative media tested, print mass media were most successful in increasing ecosystem knowledge and enhancing attitudes of both…

  17. Application of an Ecosystem Model to an Office of Handicapped Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuh, John H.; Veltman, Gayle C.

    1991-01-01

    Demonstrated how the ecosystem model can foster positive program change and provide administrators with information that can help them become advocates for disabled persons on college campuses. In the past, this approach has been useful for situations involving students. This study extended the value of this ecosystem approach to include faculty…

  18. Using FLUXNET data to improve models of springtime vegetation activity onset in forest ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melaas, E.; Richardson, A.; Friedl, M.; Dragoni, D.; Gough, C.; Herbst, M.; Montagnani, L.; Moors, E.J.

    2013-01-01

    Vegetation phenology is sensitive to climate change and variability, and is a first order control on the carbon budget of forest ecosystems. Robust representation of phenology is therefore needed to support model-based projections of how climate change will affect ecosystem function. A variety of mo

  19. Coupling ecosystems exposure to nitrogen and species sensitivity to hypoxia: modelling marine eutrophication in LCIA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Koski, Marja; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    ecosystems and promote planktonic growth that may lead to marine eutrophication impacts. Excessive algal biomass and dissolved oxygen (DO) depletion typify the ecosystem response to the nutrient input. The present novel method couples a mechanistic model of coastal biological processes that determines...

  20. Seagrass ecosystems reduce exposure to bacterial pathogens of humans, fishes, and invertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Joleah B; van de Water, Jeroen A J M; Bourne, David G; Altier, Craig; Hein, Margaux Y; Fiorenza, Evan A; Abu, Nur; Jompa, Jamaluddin; Harvell, C Drew

    2017-02-17

    Plants are important in urban environments for removing pathogens and improving water quality. Seagrass meadows are the most widespread coastal ecosystem on the planet. Although these plants are known to be associated with natural biocide production, they have not been evaluated for their ability to remove microbiological contamination. Using amplicon sequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene, we found that when seagrass meadows are present, there was a 50% reduction in the relative abundance of potential bacterial pathogens capable of causing disease in humans and marine organisms. Moreover, field surveys of more than 8000 reef-building corals located adjacent to seagrass meadows showed twofold reductions in disease levels compared to corals at paired sites without adjacent seagrass meadows. These results highlight the importance of seagrass ecosystems to the health of humans and other organisms.

  1. Ecosystem Jenga!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umphlett, Natalie; Brosius, Tierney; Laungani, Ramesh; Rousseau, Joe; Leslie-Pelecky, Diandra L.

    2009-01-01

    To give students a tangible model of an ecosystem and have them experience what could happen if a component of that ecosystem were removed; the authors developed a hands-on, inquiry-based activity that visually demonstrates the concept of a delicately balanced ecosystem through a modification of the popular game Jenga. This activity can be…

  2. Ecosystem Jenga!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umphlett, Natalie; Brosius, Tierney; Laungani, Ramesh; Rousseau, Joe; Leslie-Pelecky, Diandra L.

    2009-01-01

    To give students a tangible model of an ecosystem and have them experience what could happen if a component of that ecosystem were removed; the authors developed a hands-on, inquiry-based activity that visually demonstrates the concept of a delicately balanced ecosystem through a modification of the popular game Jenga. This activity can be…

  3. Ecosystem approaches to human health Abordagens ecossistêmicas à saúde humana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Ole Nielsen

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The promotion of human health must be embedded in the wider pursuit of ecosystem health. Interventions will be impaired if ecosystem-linked determinants of health are not taken into account. In the extreme case, if ecosystems lose their capacity for renewal, society will lose life support services. Essential features of ecosystem health are the capacity to maintain integrity and to achieve reasonable and sustainable human goals. An ecosystem approach to research and management must be transdisciplinary and assure participation of stakeholders. These requisites provide a means for science to better deal with the complexity of ecosystems, and for policy-makers and managers to establish and achieve reasonable societal goals. The ecosystem approach can determine links between human health and activities or events which disturb ecosystem state and function. Examples are: landscape disturbance in agriculture, mining, forestry, urbanization, and natural disasters. An understanding of these links can provide guidance for management interventions and policy options that promote human health. An ecosystem approach to management must be adaptive because of irreducible uncertainty in ecosystem function.A promoção da saúde humana deve estar embutida na busca maior pela saúde do ecossistema. As intervenções estarão prejudicadas se os determinantes ecossistêmicos da saúde não forem levados em conta. Em caso extremo, se os ecossistemas perderem a capacidade de se renovarem, a sociedade ficará privada de serviços essenciais à sustentação da vida. As características essenciais da saúde ecossistêmica são a capacidade de manter a integridade e a de atingir metas humanas razoáveis e sustentáveis. Uma abordagem ecossistêmica para a pesquisa e gestão deve ser transdisciplinar e assegurar a participação dos diferentes atores. Tais características fornecem um meio à ciência para lidar melhor com a complexidade dos ecossistemas, bem como aos

  4. Model study on Bohai ecosystem 1. Model description and primary productivity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Hao; YIN Baoshu

    2006-01-01

    A Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton(NPZD) type of ecological model is developed to reflect the biochemical process, and further coupled to a primitive equation ocean model, an irradiation model as well as a river discharge model to reproduce ecosystem dynamics in the Bohai Sea. Modeled primary production shows reasonable consistency with observations quantitatively and qualitatively; in addition, f-ratio is examined in detail in the first time, which is also within the range reported in other studies and reveals some meaningful insight into the relative contributions of ammonium and nitrate to the growth of phytoplankton in the Bohai Sea.

  5. A new marine ecosystem model for the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. P. Keller

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Earth System Climate Models (ESCMs are valuable tools that can be used to gain a better understanding of the climate system, global biogeochemical cycles and how anthropogenically-driven changes may affect them. Here we describe improvements made to the marine biogeochemical ecosystem component of the University of Victoria's ESCM (version 2.9. Major changes include corrections to the code and equations describing phytoplankton light limitation and zooplankton grazing, the implementation of a more realistic zooplankton growth and grazing model, and the implementation of an iron limitation scheme to constrain phytoplankton growth. The new model is evaluated after a 10 000-yr spin-up and compared to both the previous version and observations. For the majority of biogeochemical tracers and ecosystem processes the new model shows significant improvements when compared to the previous version and evaluated against observations. Many of the improvements are due to better simulation of seasonal changes in higher latitude ecosystems and the effect that this has on ocean biogeochemistry. This improved model is intended to provide a basic new ESCM model component, which can be used as is or expanded upon (i.e., the addition of new tracers, for climate change and biogeochemical cycling research.

  6. [Aquatic ecosystem modelling approach: temperature and water quality models applied to Oualidia and Nador lagoons].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idrissi, J Lakhdar; Orbi, A; Hilmi, K; Zidane, F; Moncef, M

    2005-07-01

    The objective of this work is to develop an aquatic ecosystem and apply it on Moroccan lagoon systems. This model will keep us abreast of the yearly development of the main parameters that characterize these ecosystems while integrating all the data that have so far been acquired. Within this framework, a simulation model of the thermal system and a model of the water quality have been elaborated. These models, which have been simulated on the lagoon of Oualidia (North of Morocco) and validated on the lagoon of Nador (North West Mediterranean), permit to foresee the cycles of temperature of the surface and the parameters of the water quality (dissolved oxygen and biomass phytoplankton) by using meteorological information, specific features and in situ measurements in the studied sites. The elaborated model, called Zero-Dimensional, simulates the average conduct of the site during the time of variable states that are representatives of the studied ecosystem. This model will provide answers for the studied phenomena and is a work tool adequate for numerical simplicity.

  7. Ecosystem modelling in the Forsmark area. Proceedings from two workshops modelling Eckarfjaerden and Bolundsfjaerden catchment areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Kautsky, Ulrik (eds.)

    2004-11-01

    The siting program for a repository of spent fuel currently collects large set of data from the surface ecosystem, as well as from the geosphere. The data collected at the sites will be used for various purposes, mainly for the safety assessment for the repository and for environmental impact assessment. The safety assessment of the encapsulation plant also includes an assessment of the postclosure of the repository (SRCAN) at the two sites of current interest for a repository. To show important methods on how data from the sites should be used in a safety assessment, a report for methods concerning SRCAN will be produced. This report is a first step in showing how the site data will be used to understand the function and dynamics of the ecosystems and how it may be translated in various dose models. A more extensive report from The SurfaceNet taskforce is presented in SKB-R--05-01. This report is based on two workshops held in Grisslehamn, Uppland October 20-23, 2003 and in Marholmen, Uppland April 16-19, 2004. Participants from the site investigation program, the analysis group, safety assessment and research attended the workshops. The groups worked intensively for 3 full days respectively, and achieved the major findings in this report. The two workshops had approximately the same approach, although Marholmen was more focused on the terrestrial ecosystems and Grisslehamn on aquatic systems. Besides the major aim of the workshops, to examine function and dynamics of ecosystems translated into dose modelling, another purpose was to communicate the reasons for the sampling programmes, to train new resources and to get plenty of undisturbed time to generate a large amount of creative work. It also got the important role of increased understanding between different scientific disciplines. High quality data is important for validating the dose- and ecosystem models.

  8. Tools and methods for evaluating and refining alternative futures for coastal ecosystem management—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin B.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Labiosa, William B.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that uses scenarios to evaluate where, when, and to what extent future population growth, urban growth, and shoreline development may threaten the Puget Sound nearshore environment. This tool was designed to be used iteratively in a workshop setting in which experts, stakeholders, and decisionmakers discuss consequences to the Puget Sound nearshore within an alternative-futures framework. The PSEPM presents three possible futures of the nearshore by analyzing three growth scenarios developed out to 2060: Status Quo—continuation of current trends; Managed Growth—adoption of an aggressive set of land-use management policies; and Unconstrained Growth—relaxation of land-use restrictions. The PSEPM focuses on nearshore environments associated with barrier and bluff-backed beaches—the most dominant shoreforms in Puget Sound—which represent 50 percent of Puget Sound shorelines by length. This report provides detailed methodologies for development of three submodels within the PSEPM—the Shellfish Pollution Model, the Beach Armoring Index, and the Recreation Visits Model. Results from the PSEPM identify where and when future changes to nearshore ecosystems and ecosystem services will likely occur within the three growth scenarios. Model outputs include maps that highlight shoreline sections where nearshore resources may be at greater risk from upland land-use changes. The background discussed in this report serves to document and supplement model results displayed on the PSEPM Web site located at http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/pugetSound/.

  9. From the Cover: Feature Article: Ecosystem variability and early human habitats in eastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magill, Clayton R.; Ashley, Gail M.; Freeman, Katherine H.

    2013-01-01

    The role of savannas during the course of early human evolution has been debated for nearly a century, in part because of difficulties in characterizing local ecosystems from fossil and sediment records. Here, we present high-resolution lipid biomarker and isotopic signatures for organic matter preserved in lake sediments at Olduvai Gorge during a key juncture in human evolution about 2.0 Ma-the emergence and dispersal of Homo erectus (sensu lato). Using published data for modern plants and soils, we construct a framework for ecological interpretations of stable carbon-isotope compositions (expressed as δ13C values) of lipid biomarkers from ancient plants. Within this framework, δ13C values for sedimentary leaf lipids and total organic carbon from Olduvai Gorge indicate recurrent ecosystem variations, where open C4 grasslands abruptly transitioned to closed C3 forests within several hundreds to thousands of years. Carbon-isotopic signatures correlate most strongly with Earth's orbital geometry (precession), and tropical sea-surface temperatures are significant secondary predictors in partial regression analyses. The scale and pace of repeated ecosystem variations at Olduvai Gorge contrast with long-held views of directional or stepwise aridification and grassland expansion in eastern Africa during the early Pleistocene and provide a local perspective on environmental hypotheses of human evolution.

  10. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  11. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam E Vorsino

    Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  12. Estimating California ecosystem carbon change using process model and land cover disturbance data: 1951-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Vogelmann, J.E.; Zhu, Z.; Key, C.H.; Sleeter, B.M.; Price, D.T.; Chen, J.M.; Cochrane, M.A.; Eidenshink, J.C.; Howard, S.M.; Bliss, N.B.; Jiang, H.

    2011-01-01

    Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951-2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1TgCyr-1 (1 teragram=1012g), mainly due to CO2 fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1TgCyr-1, mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0TgCyr-1 (total of 149TgC). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged -0.55TgCyr-1 (total of -27.3TgC) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (-5.34TgCyr-1). During the study period, a total of 126Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834TgC, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63TgC. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197TgC. Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951-2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire were the dominant driving forces for carbon balances in several specific

  13. A receptor-based analysis of local ecosystems in the human brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janušonis, Skirmantas

    2017-03-20

    As a complex system, the brain is a self-organizing entity that depends on local interactions among cells. Its regions (anatomically defined nuclei and areas) can be conceptualized as cellular ecosystems, but the similarity of their functional profiles is poorly understood. The study used the Allen Human Brain Atlas to classify 169 brain regions into hierarchically-organized environments based on their expression of 100 G protein-coupled neurotransmitter receptors, with no a priori reference to the regions' positions in the brain's anatomy or function. The analysis was based on hierarchical clustering, and multiscale bootstrap resampling was used to estimate the reliability of detected clusters. The study presents the first unbiased, hierarchical tree of functional environments in the human brain. The similarity of brain regions was strongly influenced by their anatomical proximity, even when they belonged to different functional systems. Generally, spatial vicinity trumped long-range projections or network connectivity. The main cluster of brain regions excluded the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus. The nuclei of the amygdala formed a cluster irrespective of their striatal or pallial origin. In its receptor profile, the hypothalamus was more closely associated with the midbrain than with the thalamus. The cerebellar cortical areas formed a tight and exclusive cluster. Most of the neocortical areas (with the exception of some occipital areas) clustered in a large, statistically well supported group that included no other brain regions. This study adds a new dimension to the established classifications of brain divisions. In a single framework, they are reconsidered at multiple scales-from individual nuclei and areas to their groups to the entire brain. The analysis provides support for predictive models of brain self-organization and adaptation.

  14. Sensitivity of ecosystem models to the spatial resolution of the NCAR Community Climate Model CCM2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ciret, C. [Macquarie Univ., Sydney (Australia). Climate Impacts Centre; Henderson-Sellers, A. [Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia)

    1998-06-01

    This study evaluates the sensitivity of ecosystem models to changes in the horizontal resolution of version 2 of the national centre for atmospheric research community climate model (CCM2). A previous study has shown that the distributions of natural ecosystems predicted by vegetation models using coarse resolution present-day climate simulations are poorly simulated. It is usually assumed that increasing the spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) will improve the simulation of climate, and hence will increase our level of confidence in the use of GCM output for impacts studies. The principal goals of this study is to investigate this hypothesis and to identify which biomes are more affected by the changes in spatial resolution of the forcing climate. The ecosystem models used are the BIOME-1 model and a version of the Holdridge scheme. The climate simulations come from a set of experiments in which CCM2 was run with increasing horizontal resolutions. The biome distributions predicted using CCM2 climates are compared against biome distributions predicted using observed climate datasets. Results show that increasing the resolution of CCM2 produces a significant improvement of the global-scale vegetation prediction, indicating that a higher level of confidence can be vested in the global-scale prediction of natural ecosystems using medium and high resolution GCMs. However, not all biomes are equally affected by the increased spatial resolution, and although certain biome distributions are improved (e.g. hot desert, tropical seasonal forest), others remain globally poorly predicted even at high resolution (e.g. grasses and xerophytic woods). In addition, these results show that some climatic biases are enhanced with increasing resolution (e.g. in mountain ranges), resulting in the inadequate prediction of biomes. (orig.) With 16 figs., 5 tabs., 37 refs.

  15. Beyond the roots of human inaction: Fostering collective effort toward ecosystem conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amel, Elise; Manning, Christie; Scott, Britain; Koger, Susan

    2017-04-21

    The term "environmental problem" exposes a fundamental misconception: Disruptions of Earth's ecosystems are at their root a human behavior problem. Psychology is a potent tool for understanding the external and internal drivers of human behavior that lead to unsustainable living. Psychologists already contribute to individual-level behavior-change campaigns in the service of sustainability, but attention is turning toward understanding and facilitating the role of individuals in collective and collaborative actions that will modify the environmentally damaging systems in which humans are embedded. Especially crucial in moving toward long-term human and environmental well-being are transformational individuals who step outside of the norm, embrace ecological principles, and inspire collective action. Particularly in developed countries, fostering legions of sustainability leaders rests upon a fundamental renewal of humans' connection to the natural world. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  16. Human Factors Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    Jack is an advanced human factors software package that provides a three dimensional model for predicting how a human will interact with a given system or environment. It can be used for a broad range of computer-aided design applications. Jack was developed by the computer Graphics Research Laboratory of the University of Pennsylvania with assistance from NASA's Johnson Space Center, Ames Research Center and the Army. It is the University's first commercial product. Jack is still used for academic purposes at the University of Pennsylvania. Commercial rights were given to Transom Technologies, Inc.

  17. Bioenergy Ecosystem Land-Use Modelling and Field Flux Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Niall; Bottoms, Emily; Donnison, Iain; Dondini, Marta; Farrar, Kerrie; Finch, Jon; Harris, Zoe; Ineson, Phil; Keane, Ben; Massey, Alice; McCalmont, Jon; Morison, James; Perks, Mike; Pogson, Mark; Rowe, Rebecca; Smith, Pete; Sohi, Saran; Tallis, Mat; Taylor, Gail; Yamulki, Sirwan

    2013-04-01

    loss after land use change at 100 fieldsites which encapsulate a range of UK climates and soil types. Our overall objective is to use our measured data to parameterise and validate the models that we will use to predict the implications of bioenergy crop deployment in the UK up to 2050. The resultant output will be a meta-model which will help facilitate decision making on the sustainable development of bioenergy in the UK, with potential deployment in other temperate climates around the world. Here we report on the outcome of the first of three years of work. This work is based on the Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial (ELUM) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). Don et al. (2012) Land-use change to bioenergy production in Europe: implications for the greenhouse gas balance and soil carbon. GCB Bioenergy 4, 372-379.

  18. Taking the "waste" out of "wastewater" for human water security and ecosystem sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Stanley B; Saphores, Jean-Daniel; Feldman, David L; Hamilton, Andrew J; Fletcher, Tim D; Cook, Perran L M; Stewardson, Michael; Sanders, Brett F; Levin, Lisa A; Ambrose, Richard F; Deletic, Ana; Brown, Rebekah; Jiang, Sunny C; Rosso, Diego; Cooper, William J; Marusic, Ivan

    2012-08-10

    Humans create vast quantities of wastewater through inefficiencies and poor management of water systems. The wasting of water poses sustainability challenges, depletes energy reserves, and undermines human water security and ecosystem health. Here we review emerging approaches for reusing wastewater and minimizing its generation. These complementary options make the most of scarce freshwater resources, serve the varying water needs of both developed and developing countries, and confer a variety of environmental benefits. Their widespread adoption will require changing how freshwater is sourced, used, managed, and priced.

  19. Modelling the dynamic interactions between food production and ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duku, C.

    2017-01-01

    Given the high levels of food insecurity and the loss of vital ecosystem services associated with deforestation, countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face a major dilemma. How can they produce enough food in a changing climate to feed an increasing population while protecting natural forests and

  20. Assessing ecosystem response to multiple disturbances and climate change in South Africa using ground- and satellite-based measurements and model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutsch, W. L.; Falge, E. M.; Brümmer, C.; Mukwashi, K.; Schmullius, C.; Hüttich, C.; Odipo, V.; Scholes, R. J.; Mudau, A.; Midgley, G.; Stevens, N.; Hickler, T.; Scheiter, S.; Martens, C.; Twine, W.; Iiyambo, T.; Bradshaw, K.; Lück, W.; Lenfers, U.; Thiel-Clemen, T.; du Toit, J.

    2015-12-01

    Sub-Saharan Africa currently experiences rapidly growing human population, intrinsically tied to substantial changes in land use on shrubland, savanna and mixed woodland ecosystems due to over-exploitation. Significant conversions driving degradation, affecting fire frequency and water availability, and fueling climate change are expected to increase in the immediate future. However, measured data of greenhouse gas emissions as affected by land use change are scarce to entirely lacking from this region. The project 'Adaptive Resilience of Southern African Ecosystems' (ARS AfricaE) conducts research and develops scenarios of ecosystem development under climate change, for management support in conservation or for planning rural area development. This will be achieved by (1) creation of a network of research clusters (paired sites with natural and altered vegetation) along an aridity gradient in South Africa for ground-based micrometeorological in-situ measurements of energy and matter fluxes, (2) linking biogeochemical functions with ecosystem structure, and eco-physiological properties, (3) description of ecosystem disturbance (and recovery) in terms of ecosystem function such as carbon balance components and water use efficiency, (4) set-up of individual-based models to predict ecosystem dynamics under (post) disturbance managements, (5) combination with long-term landscape dynamic information derived from remote sensing and aerial photography, and (6) development of sustainable management strategies for disturbed ecosystems and land use change. Emphasis is given on validation (by a suite of field measurements) of estimates obtained from eddy covariance, model approaches and satellite derivations.

  1. Modeling the Ecosystem Services Provided by Trees in Urban Ecosystems: Using Biome-BGC to Improve i-Tree Eco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; McGroddy, Megan; Spence, Caitlin; Flake, Leah; Sarfraz, Amna; Nowak, David J.; Milesi, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    As the world becomes increasingly urban, the need to quantify the effect of trees in urban environments on energy usage, air pollution, local climate and nutrient run-off has increased. By identifying, quantifying and valuing the ecological activity that provides services in urban areas, stronger policies and improved quality of life for urban residents can be obtained. Here we focus on two radically different models that can be used to characterize urban forests. The i-Tree Eco model (formerly UFORE model) quantifies ecosystem services (e.g., air pollution removal, carbon storage) and values derived from urban trees based on field measurements of trees and local ancillary data sets. Biome-BGC (Biome BioGeoChemistry) is used to simulate the fluxes and storage of carbon, water, and nitrogen in natural environments. This paper compares i-Tree Eco's methods to those of Biome-BGC, which estimates the fluxes and storage of energy, carbon, water and nitrogen for vegetation and soil components of the ecosystem. We describe the two models and their differences in the way they calculate similar properties, with a focus on carbon and nitrogen. Finally, we discuss the implications of further integration of these two communities for land managers such as those in Maryland.

  2. A Systems Approach to the Estimation of Ecosystem and Human Health Stressors in Air, Land and Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooter, E. J.; Dennis, R. L.; Bash, J. O.

    2013-12-01

    Nitrogen (N) and sulfur oxides (SOx) in air, land and water media are parts of tightly coupled geophysical systems resulting in multiple routes for human and ecosystem exposure. For instance, excess forms of total reactive N in water can lead to harmful algal blooms, with the depletion of oxygen and adverse impacts to aquatic ecosystem productivity in coastal estuaries. Acidic deposition can result in lost forest productivity for terrestrial ecosystem and impacts to trout and other fishery resources in inland waters. Human pulmonary health can be impaired when N and SOx in the atmosphere lead to the generation of ozone and particulate matter (PM). Atmospheric N deposition can also contribute to eutrophication of drinking water sources. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) has embarked on the development of a multi-media 'one environment' systems approach to these issues to help develop management decisions that create win-win policies. The purpose of this project is to develop a 'one environment' set of models that can inform protection of ecosystems and human health in both the current state and under future climate scenarios. The research framework focuses on three interrelated themes; coupling air quality with land use and agricultural land management, connecting the hydrosphere (i.e., coupling meteorology and hydrology) and linking the air/land/hydrosphere with ecosystem models and benefits models. We will present an overall modeling framework and then move to the presentation of on-going research results related to direct linkage of air quality with land use and agricultural land management. A modeling interface system has been developed that facilitates the simulation of field-scale agricultural land management decisions over a gridded domain at multiple grid resolutions for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using a modified version of the USDA EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model. EPIC

  3. Threshold behaviour in hydrological systems as (human geo-ecosystems: manifestations, controls, implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sivapalan

    2009-07-01

    . These are controlled by the topological architecture of the catchments that interacts with system states and the boundary conditions. Crossing the response thresholds means to establish connectedness of surface or subsurface flow paths to the catchment outlet. Subsurface stormflow in humid areas, overland flow and erosion in semi-arid and arid areas are examples, and explain that crossing local process thresholds is necessary but not sufficient to trigger a system response threshold. The third form of threshold behaviour involves changes in the "architecture" of human geo-ecosystems, which experience various disturbances. As a result substantial change in hydrological functioning of a system is induced, when the disturbances exceed the resilience of the geo-ecosystem. We present examples from savannah ecosystems, humid agricultural systems, mining activities affecting rainfall runoff in forested areas, badlands formation in Spain, and the restoration of the Upper Rhine river basin as examples of this phenomenon. This functional threshold behaviour is most difficult to predict, since it requires extrapolations far away from our usual experience and the accounting of bidirectional feedbacks. However, it does not require the development of more complicated model, but on the contrary, only models with the right level of simplification, which we illustrate with an instructive example. Following Prigogine, who studied structure formation in open thermodynamic systems, we hypothesise that topological structures which control response thresholds in the landscape might be seen as dissipative structures, and the onset of threshold processes/response as a switch to more efficient ways of depleting strong gradients that develop in the case of extreme boundary conditions.

  4. An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska

    2015-01-01

    Widespread coral reef decline, including decline in reef fish populations upon which many coastal human populations depend, have led to phase-shifts from the coral-dominated systems, found desirable by humans, to algal-dominated systems that provide less ecosystem services, and the loss of functiona

  5. An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Widespread coral reef decline, including decline in reef fish populations upon which many coastal human populations depend, have led to phase-shifts from the coral-dominated systems, found desirable by humans, to algal-dominated systems that provide less ecosystem services,

  6. An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska

    2015-01-01

    Widespread coral reef decline, including decline in reef fish populations upon which many coastal human populations depend, have led to phase-shifts from the coral-dominated systems, found desirable by humans, to algal-dominated systems that provide less ecosystem services, and the loss of

  7. An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Widespread coral reef decline, including decline in reef fish populations upon which many coastal human populations depend, have led to phase-shifts from the coral-dominated systems, found desirable by humans, to algal-dominated systems that provide less ecosystem services,

  8. An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska

    2015-01-01

    Widespread coral reef decline, including decline in reef fish populations upon which many coastal human populations depend, have led to phase-shifts from the coral-dominated systems, found desirable by humans, to algal-dominated systems that provide less ecosystem services, and the loss of functiona

  9. Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an earth system model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. B. Rodgers

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Marine ecosystems are increasingly impacted by human-induced changes. Ocean ecosystem drivers – including warming, acidification, deoxygenation and perturbations to biological productivity – can co-occur in space and time, but detecting their trends is complicated by the presence of noise associated with natural variability in the climate system. Here we use Large Initial-Condition Ensemble Simulations with a comprehensive Earth System Model under a historical/RCP8.5 pathway over 1950–2100 to consider emergence characteristics for the four individual and combined drivers. Using a one-standard deviation (67% confidence threshold of signal-to-noise to define emergence with a 30 yr trend window, we show that ocean acidification emerges much earlier than other drivers, namely during the 20th century over most of the global ocean. For biological productivity, the anthropogenic signal does not emerge from the noise over most of the global ocean before the end of the 21st century. The early emergence pattern for sea surface temperature in low latitudes is reversed from that of subsurface oxygen inventories, where emergence occurs earlier in the Southern Ocean. For the combined multiple-driver field, 41% of the global ocean exhibits emergence for the 2005–2014 period, and 63% for the 2075–2084 period. The combined multiple-driver field reveals emergence patterns by the end of this century that are relatively high over much of the Southern Ocean, North Pacific, and Atlantic, but relatively low over the tropics and the South Pacific. In regions with pronounced emergence characteristics, marine ecosystems can be expected to be pushed outside of their comfort zone determined by the degree of natural background variability to which they are adapted. The results here thus have implications not only for optimization of the ocean observing system, but also for risk assessment and mitigation strategies.

  10. Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

    2014-02-15

    Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Application of eco-exergy for assessment of ecosystem health and development of structurally dynamic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, J.; Gürkan, Zeren; Jørgensen, S.E.

    2010-01-01

    Eco-exergy has been widely used in the assessment of ecosystem health, parameter estimations, calibrations, validations and prognoses. It offers insights into the understanding of ecosystem dynamics and disturbance-cl riven changes. Particularly, structurally dynamic models (SDMs), which are deve...... of structurally dynamic models (SDMs). The limitations and possible future applications of the approach are also addressed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  12. Evaluating carbon fluxes of global forest ecosystems by using an individual tree-based model FORCCHN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jianyong; Shugart, Herman H; Yan, Xiaodong; Cao, Cougui; Wu, Shuang; Fang, Jing

    2017-02-14

    The carbon budget of forest ecosystems, an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, needs to be accurately quantified and predicted by ecological models. As a preamble to apply the model to estimate global carbon uptake by forest ecosystems, we used the CO2 flux measurements from 37 forest eddy-covariance sites to examine the individual tree-based FORCCHN model's performance globally. In these initial tests, the FORCCHN model simulated gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem production (NEP) with correlations of 0.72, 0.70 and 0.53, respectively, across all forest biomes. The model underestimated GPP and slightly overestimated ER across most of the eddy-covariance sites. An underestimation of NEP arose primarily from the lower GPP estimates. Model performance was better in capturing both the temporal changes and magnitude of carbon fluxes in deciduous broadleaf forest than in evergreen broadleaf forest, and it performed less well for sites in Mediterranean climate. We then applied the model to estimate the carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems on global scale over 1982-2011. This application of FORCCHN gave a total GPP of 59.41±5.67 and an ER of 57.21±5.32PgCyr(-1) for global forest ecosystems during 1982-2011. The forest ecosystems over this same period contributed a large carbon storage, with total NEP being 2.20±0.64PgCyr(-1). These values are comparable to and reinforce estimates reported in other studies. This analysis highlights individual tree-based model FORCCHN could be used to evaluate carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems on global scale.

  13. A sequential approach to calibrate ecosystem models with multiple time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo; Verley, Philippe; Echevin, Vincent; Shin, Yunne-Jai

    2017-02-01

    When models are aimed to support decision-making, their credibility is essential to consider. Model fitting to observed data is one major criterion to assess such credibility. However, due to the complexity of ecosystem models making their calibration more challenging, the scientific community has given more attention to the exploration of model behavior than to a rigorous comparison to observations. This work highlights some issues related to the comparison of complex ecosystem models to data and proposes a methodology for a sequential multi-phases calibration (or parameter estimation) of ecosystem models. We first propose two criteria to classify the parameters of a model: the model dependency and the time variability of the parameters. Then, these criteria and the availability of approximate initial estimates are used as decision rules to determine which parameters need to be estimated, and their precedence order in the sequential calibration process. The end-to-end (E2E) ecosystem model ROMS-PISCES-OSMOSE applied to the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is used as an illustrative case study. The model is calibrated using an evolutionary algorithm and a likelihood approach to fit time series data of landings, abundance indices and catch at length distributions from 1992 to 2008. Testing different calibration schemes regarding the number of phases, the precedence of the parameters' estimation, and the consideration of time varying parameters, the results show that the multiple-phase calibration conducted under our criteria allowed to improve the model fit.

  14. Activation of the operational ecohydrodynamic model (3D CEMBS - the ecosystem module

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaromir Jakacki

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the ecohydrodynamic predictive model - the ecosystem module - for assessing the state of the Baltic marine environment and the Baltic ecosystem. The Baltic Sea model 3D CEMBS (the Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea is based on the Community Earth System Model, which was adopted for the Baltic Sea as a coupled sea-ice-ecosystem model. The 3D CEMBS model uses: (i hydrodynamic equations describing water movement, (ii thermodynamic equations, (iii equations describing the concentration distribution of chemical variables in the sea, and (iv equations describing the exchange of matter between individual groups of organisms and their environment that make allowance for the kinetics of biochemical processes. The ecosystem model consists of 11 main components: three classes of phytoplankton (small phytoplankton, large phytoplankton represented mainly by diatoms and summer species, mostly cyanobacteria expressed in units of carbon and chlorophyll a as separate variables, zooplankton, pelagic detritus, dissolved oxygen and nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate and silicate. In operational mode, 48-hour atmospheric forecasts provided by the UM model from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Warsaw University (ICM are used. All model forecasts are available on the website http://deep.iopan.gda.pl/CEMBaltic/new_lay/index.php. The results presented in this paper show that the 3D CEMBS model is operating correctly.

  15. Small diversity effects on ocean primary production under environmental change in a diversity-resolving ocean ecosystem model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

    2013-01-01

    Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic diversity. Diversity, however, can affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Using a global ocean ecosystem model t...

  16. Case Study: Southwest Coastal Louisiana Conceptual Ecosystem Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-01

    Florida Ecosystem Restoration Programs. South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, FL. Ogden, J.C., S.M. Davis, and L.A. Brandt...Institute, Louisiana State University. ERDC TN-EMRRP-EBA-22 August 2014 27 Gentile, J. H. 1996. Workshop on South Florida Ecological Sustainability... Florida , 54 pp. Gould, H. R. and E. McFarlan, Jr., 1959. Geologic History of the Chenier Plain, Southwestern Louisiana. Transactions, Gulf Coast

  17. Predicting interactions among fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification in a marine system with whole-ecosystem models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Gary P; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Gorton, Rebecca; Richardson, Anthony J

    2012-12-01

    An important challenge for conservation is a quantitative understanding of how multiple human stressors will interact to mitigate or exacerbate global environmental change at a community or ecosystem level. We explored the interaction effects of fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification over time on 60 functional groups of species in the southeastern Australian marine ecosystem. We tracked changes in relative biomass within a coupled dynamic whole-ecosystem modeling framework that included the biophysical system, human effects, socioeconomics, and management evaluation. We estimated the individual, additive, and interactive effects on the ecosystem and for five community groups (top predators, fishes, benthic invertebrates, plankton, and primary producers). We calculated the size and direction of interaction effects with an additive null model and interpreted results as synergistic (amplified stress), additive (no additional stress), or antagonistic (reduced stress). Individually, only ocean acidification had a negative effect on total biomass. Fishing and ocean warming and ocean warming with ocean acidification had an additive effect on biomass. Adding fishing to ocean warming and ocean acidification significantly changed the direction and magnitude of the interaction effect to a synergistic response on biomass. The interaction effect depended on the response level examined (ecosystem vs. community). For communities, the size, direction, and type of interaction effect varied depending on the combination of stressors. Top predator and fish biomass had a synergistic response to the interaction of all three stressors, whereas biomass of benthic invertebrates responded antagonistically. With our approach, we were able to identify the regional effects of fishing on the size and direction of the interacting effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. Clues to Coral Reef Ecosystem Health: Spectral Analysis Coupled with Radiative Transfer Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guild, L.; Ganapol, B.; Kramer, P.; Armstrong, R.; Gleason, A.; Torres, J.; Johnson, L.; Garfield, N.

    2003-12-01

    Coral reefs are among the world's most productive and biologically rich ecosystems and are some of the oldest ecosystems on Earth. Coralline structures protect coastlines from storms, maintain high diversity of marine life, and provide nurseries for marine species. Coral reefs play a role in carbon cycling through high rates of organic carbon metabolism and calcification. Coral reefs provide fisheries habitat that are the sole protein source for humans on remote islands. Reefs respond immediately to environmental change and therefore are considered "canaries" of the oceans. However, the world's reefs are in peril: they have shrunk 10-50% from their historical extent due to climate change and anthropogenic activity. An important contribution to coral reef research is improved spectral distinction of reef species' health where anthropogenic activity and climate change impacts are high. Relatively little is known concerning the spectral properties of coral or how coral structures reflect and transmit light. New insights into optical processes of corals under stressed conditions can lead to improved interpretation of airborne and satellite data and forecasting of immediate or long-term impacts of events such as bleaching and disease in coral. We are investigating the spatial and spectral resolution required to detect remotely changes in reef health by coupling spectral analysis of in situ spectra and airborne spectral data with a new radiative transfer model called CorMOD2. Challenges include light attenuation by the water column, atmospheric scattering, and scattering caused by the coral themselves that confound the spectral signal. In CorMOD2, input coral reflectance measurements produce modeled absorption through an inversion at each visible wavelength. The first model development phase of CorMOD2 imposes a scattering baseline that is constant regardless of coral condition, and further specifies that coral is optically thick. Evolution of CorMOD2 is towards a coral

  19. Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Bopp

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth System Models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration parthways (RCP over the 21st century. For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in 2090s (compared to 1990s for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 °C, −0.33 pH unit, −3.45% and −8.6%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 °C, −0.07 pH unit, −1.81% and −2.0% respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of sub-surface O2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity.

  20. The arable plant ecosystem as battleground for emergence of human pathogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leo eVan Overbeek

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Disease incidences related to Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica infections by consumption of (fresh vegetables, sprouts and occasionally fruits made clear that these pathogens are not only transmitted to humans via the ‘classical’ routes of meat, eggs and dairy products, but also can be transmitted to humans via plants or products derived from plants. Nowadays, it is of major concern that these human pathogens, especially the ones belonging to the taxonomical family of Enterobacteriaceae, become adapted to environmental habitats without losing their virulence to humans. Adaptation to the plant environment would lead to longer persistence in plants, increasing their chances on transmission to humans via consumption of plant-derived food. One of the mechanisms of adaptation to the plant environment in human pathogens, proposed in this paper, is horizontal transfer of genes from different microbial communities present in the arable ecosystem, like the ones originating from soil, animal digestive track systems (manure, water and plants themselves. Genes that would confer better adaptation to the phytosphere might be genes involved in plant colonization, stress resistance and nutrient acquisition and utilization. Because human pathogenic enterics often were prone to genetic exchanges via phages and conjugative plasmids, it was postulated that these genetic elements may be hold key responsible for horizontal gene transfers between human pathogens and indigenous microbes in agroproduction systems. In analogy to zoonosis, we coin the term phytonosis for a human pathogen that is transmitted via plants and not exclusively via animals.

  1. Trophic models: What do we learn about Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay ecosystems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moullec, Fabien; Gascuel, Didier; Bentorcha, Karim; Guénette, Sylvie; Robert, Marianne

    2017-08-01

    Trophic models are key tools to go beyond the single-species approaches used in stock assessments to adopt a more holistic view and implement the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM). This study aims to: (i) analyse the trophic functioning of the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay, (ii) investigate ecosystem changes over the 1980-2013 period and, (iii) explore the response to management measures at the food web scale. Ecopath models were built for each ecosystem for years 1980 and 2013, and Ecosim models were fitted to time series data of biomass and catches. EcoTroph diagnosis showed that in both ecosystems, fishing pressure focuses on high trophic levels (TLs) and, to a lesser extent, on intermediate TLs. However, the interplay between local environmental conditions, species composition and ecosystem functioning could explain the different responses to fisheries management observed between these two contiguous ecosystems. Indeed, over the study period, the ecosystem's exploitation status has improved in the Bay of Biscay but not in the Celtic Sea. This improvement does not seem to be sufficient to achieve the objectives of an EAFM, as high trophic levels were still overexploited in 2013 and simulations conducted with Ecosim in the Bay of Biscay indicate that at current fishing effort the biomass will not be rebuilt by 2030. The ecosystem's response to a reduction in fishing mortality depends on which trophic levels receive protection. Reducing fishing mortality on pelagic fish, instead of on demersal fish, appears more efficient at maximising catch and total biomass and at conserving both top-predator and intermediate TLs. Such advice-oriented trophic models should be used on a regular basis to monitor the health status of marine food webs and analyse the trade-offs between multiple objectives in an ecosystem-based fisheries management context.

  2. A metaproteomic approach to study human-microbial ecosystems at the mucosal luminal interface.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxiao Li

    Full Text Available Aberrant interactions between the host and the intestinal bacteria are thought to contribute to the pathogenesis of many digestive diseases. However, studying the complex ecosystem at the human mucosal-luminal interface (MLI is challenging and requires an integrative systems biology approach. Therefore, we developed a novel method integrating lavage sampling of the human mucosal surface, high-throughput proteomics, and a unique suite of bioinformatic and statistical analyses. Shotgun proteomic analysis of secreted proteins recovered from the MLI confirmed the presence of both human and bacterial components. To profile the MLI metaproteome, we collected 205 mucosal lavage samples from 38 healthy subjects, and subjected them to high-throughput proteomics. The spectral data were subjected to a rigorous data processing pipeline to optimize suitability for quantitation and analysis, and then were evaluated using a set of biostatistical tools. Compared to the mucosal transcriptome, the MLI metaproteome was enriched for extracellular proteins involved in response to stimulus and immune system processes. Analysis of the metaproteome revealed significant individual-related as well as anatomic region-related (biogeographic features. Quantitative shotgun proteomics established the identity and confirmed the biogeographic association of 49 proteins (including 3 functional protein networks demarcating the proximal and distal colon. This robust and integrated proteomic approach is thus effective for identifying functional features of the human mucosal ecosystem, and a fresh understanding of the basic biology and disease processes at the MLI.

  3. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystem at Oeregrundsgrepen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Sandberg, Johannes (DHI, Hoersholm (Denmark))

    2010-06-15

    The aim of the work was to provide supplementary input to the risk assessment of a planned final nuclear waste repository at Forsmark. The main deliverable was a computed water exchange between basins in the Forsmark marine area for the period 6500 BC to 9000 AD - based on the hydrodynamic modelling - to be used as input to the landscape dose model. In addition and what is described in this report, a second deliverable was development and application of high-resolution models for the marine ecosystem and radionuclide processes. The purpose of this deliverable was to illustrate the spatial and temporal variation in important processes and parameters, while constituting a complement to previous modelling approaches and providing supporting information to discussions of the marine ecosystem, parameters and variation (see Chapter 4 and 6).To this end, a hydrodynamic model of high temporal and spatial resolution was constructed and calibrated for the Forsmark area. An ecosystem model was then developed and coupled to the hydrodynamic model. In turn, a detailed radionuclide model was coupled to the ecosystem model to provide detailed predictions of radionuclide transport and accumulation in the coastal ecosystem. The ecosystem and radionuclide models were developed in the equation solver MIKE ECOLab that links seamless to the MIKE3 FM hydrodynamic model. The 'standard' ECOLab ecosystem model was extended with six biological state variables, perennial macroalgae, benthic herbivors, detritus feeders, planktivorus fish and, benthic predators representing the relict isopod Saduria and cod. In contrast to the ecosystem model, the radionuclide model was developed from scratch but building on the structure of the ecosystem model and using the output (process rates linking state variables) from the ecosystem model as input to the radionuclide model. Both the ecosystem model and the radionuclide model were run for several years (5-8 years) to bring state variables into

  4. Assessing the Effectiveness of Payments for Ecosystem Services: an Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodong Chen

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Payments for ecosystem services (PES have increasingly been implemented to protect and restore ecosystems worldwide. The effectiveness of conservation investments in PES may differ under alternative policy scenarios and may not be sustainable because of uncertainties in human responses to policies and dynamic human-nature interactions. To assess the impacts of these interactions on the effectiveness of PES programs, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model: human and natural interactions under policies (HANIP. We used HANIP to study the effectiveness of China's Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP and alternative policy scenarios in a coupled human-nature system, China's Wolong Nature Reserve, where indigenous people's use of fuelwood affects forests. We estimated the effects of the current NFCP, which provides a cash payment, and an alternative payment scenario that provides an electricity payment by comparing forest dynamics under these policies to forest dynamics under a scenario in which no payment is provided. In 2007, there were 337 km² of forests in the study area of 515 km². Under the baseline projection in which no payment is provided, the forest area is expected to be 234 km² in 2030. Under the current NFCP, there are likely to be 379 km² of forests in 2030, or an increase of 145 km² of forests to the baseline projection. If the cash payment is replaced with an electricity payment, there are likely to be 435 km² of forests in 2030, or an increase of 201 km² of forests to the baseline projection. However, the effectiveness of the NFCP may be threatened by the behavior of newly formed households if they are not included in the payment scheme. In addition, the effects of socio-demographic factors on forests will also differ under different policy scenarios. Human and natural interactions under policies (HANIP and its modeling framework may also be used to assess the effectiveness of many other PES programs around

  5. Estimation of Ecosystem Parameters of the Community Land Model with DREAM: Evaluation of the Potential for Upscaling Net Ecosystem Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendricks Franssen, H. J.; Post, H.; Vrugt, J. A.; Fox, A. M.; Baatz, R.; Kumbhar, P.; Vereecken, H.

    2015-12-01

    Estimation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) by land surface models is strongly affected by uncertain ecosystem parameters and initial conditions. A possible approach is the estimation of plant functional type (PFT) specific parameters for sites with measurement data like NEE and application of the parameters at other sites with the same PFT and no measurements. This upscaling strategy was evaluated in this work for sites in Germany and France. Ecosystem parameters and initial conditions were estimated with NEE-time series of one year length, or a time series of only one season. The DREAM(zs) algorithm was used for the estimation of parameters and initial conditions. DREAM(zs) is not limited to Gaussian distributions and can condition to large time series of measurement data simultaneously. DREAM(zs) was used in combination with the Community Land Model (CLM) v4.5. Parameter estimates were evaluated by model predictions at the same site for an independent verification period. In addition, the parameter estimates were evaluated at other, independent sites situated >500km away with the same PFT. The main conclusions are: i) simulations with estimated parameters reproduced better the NEE measurement data in the verification periods, including the annual NEE-sum (23% improvement), annual NEE-cycle and average diurnal NEE course (error reduction by factor 1,6); ii) estimated parameters based on seasonal NEE-data outperformed estimated parameters based on yearly data; iii) in addition, those seasonal parameters were often also significantly different from their yearly equivalents; iv) estimated parameters were significantly different if initial conditions were estimated together with the parameters. We conclude that estimated PFT-specific parameters improve land surface model predictions significantly at independent verification sites and for independent verification periods so that their potential for upscaling is demonstrated. However, simulation results also indicate

  6. Modelling impacts of second generation bioenergy production on Ecosystem Services in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henner, Dagmar; Smith, Pete; Davies, Christian; McNamara, Niall

    2016-04-01

    Bioenergy crops are an important source of renewable energy and are a possible mechanism to mitigate global climate warming, by replacing fossil fuel energy with higher greenhouse gas emissions. There is, however, uncertainty about the impacts of the growth of bioenergy crops on ecosystem services. This uncertainty is further enhanced by the unpredictable climate change currently going on. The goal of this project is to develop a comprehensive model that covers high impact, policy relevant ecosystem services at a Continental scale including biodiversity and pollination, water and air security, erosion control and soil security, GHG emissions, soil C and cultural services like tourism value. The technical distribution potential and likely yield of second generation energy crops, such as Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) with willow, poplar, eucalyptus and other broadleaf species and Short Rotation Forestry (SRF), is currently being modelled using ECOSSE, DayCent, SalixFor and MiscanFor, and ecosystem models will be used to examine the impacts of these crops on ecosystem services. The project builds on models of energy crop production, biodiversity, soil impacts, greenhouse gas emissions and other ecosystem services, and on work undertaken in the UK on the ETI-funded ELUM project (www.elum.ac.uk). In addition, methods like water footprint tools, tourism value maps and ecosystem valuation tools and models (e.g. InVest, TEEB database, GREET LCA Model, World Business Council for Sustainable Development corporate ecosystem valuation, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Ecosystem Services Framework) will be utilised. Research will focus on optimisation of land use change feedbacks on above named ecosystem services, impact on food security, land management practices and impacts from climate change. We will present results for GHG emissions and soil organic carbon change after different land use change scenarios (e.g. arable to Miscanthus, forest to SRF), and

  7. Developing Conceptual Models for Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Contaminant Availability in Terrestrial Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ERDC/EL TN-15-1 March 2015 Developing Conceptual Models for Assessing Climate Change ...about climate change , contaminant availability, and TER-S conservation on installations. CONCEPTUAL MODEL BACKGROUND: Conceptual models are... Conceptual Models for Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Contaminant Availability in Terrestrial Ecosystems 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c

  8. Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

    2002-01-01

    Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

  9. Development of the BIOME-BGC model for the simulation of managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Fangjie; Li, Pingheng; Zhou, Guomo; Du, Huaqiang; Xu, Xiaojun; Shi, Yongjun; Mo, Lufeng; Zhou, Yufeng; Tu, Guoqing

    2016-05-01

    Numerical models are the most appropriate instrument for the analysis of the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems and their interactions with changing environmental conditions. The process-based model BIOME-BGC is widely used in simulation of carbon balance within vegetation, litter and soil of unmanaged ecosystems. For Moso bamboo forests, however, simulations with BIOME-BGC are inaccurate in terms of the growing season and the carbon allocation, due to the oversimplified representation of phenology. Our aim was to improve the applicability of BIOME-BGC for managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystem by implementing several new modules, including phenology, carbon allocation, and management. Instead of the simple phenology and carbon allocation representations in the original version, a periodic Moso bamboo phenology and carbon allocation module was implemented, which can handle the processes of Moso bamboo shooting and high growth during "on-year" and "off-year". Four management modules (digging bamboo shoots, selective cutting, obtruncation, fertilization) were integrated in order to quantify the functioning of managed ecosystems. The improved model was calibrated and validated using eddy covariance measurement data collected at a managed Moso bamboo forest site (Anji) during 2011-2013 years. As a result of these developments and calibrations, the performance of the model was substantially improved. Regarding the measured and modeled fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange), relative errors were decreased by 42.23%, 103.02% and 18.67%, respectively.

  10. Using ecosystem services to represent the environment in hydro-economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Momblanch, Andrea; Connor, Jeffery D.; Crossman, Neville D.; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

    2016-07-01

    Demand for water is expected to grow in line with global human population growth, but opportunities to augment supply are limited in many places due to resource limits and expected impacts of climate change. Hydro-economic models are often used to evaluate water resources management options, commonly with a goal of understanding how to maximise water use value and reduce conflicts among competing uses. The environment is now an important factor in decision making, which has resulted in its inclusion in hydro-economic models. We reviewed 95 studies applying hydro-economic models, and documented how the environment is represented in them and the methods they use to value environmental costs and benefits. We also sought out key gaps and inconsistencies in the treatment of the environment in hydro-economic models. We found that representation of environmental values of water is patchy in most applications, and there should be systematic consideration of the scope of environmental values to include and how they should be valued. We argue that the ecosystem services framework offers a systematic approach to identify the full range of environmental costs and benefits. The main challenges to more holistic representation of the environment in hydro-economic models are the current limits to understanding of ecological functions which relate physical, ecological and economic values and critical environmental thresholds; and the treatment of uncertainty.

  11. The importance of biodiversity and dominance for multiple ecosystem functions in a human-modified tropical landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohbeck, Madelon; Bongers, Frans; Martinez-Ramos, Miguel; Poorter, Lourens

    2016-10-01

    Many studies suggest that biodiversity may be particularly important for ecosystem multifunctionality, because different species with different traits can contribute to different functions. Support, however, comes mostly from experimental studies conducted at small spatial scales in low-diversity systems. Here, we test whether different species contribute to different ecosystem functions that are important for carbon cycling in a high-diversity human-modified tropical forest landscape in Southern Mexico. We quantified aboveground standing biomass, primary productivity, litter production, and wood decomposition at the landscape level, and evaluated the extent to which tree species contribute to these ecosystem functions. We used simulations to tease apart the effects of species richness, species dominance and species functional traits on ecosystem functions. We found that dominance was more important than species traits in determining a species' contribution to ecosystem functions. As a consequence of the high dominance in human-modified landscapes, the same small subset of species mattered across different functions. In human-modified landscapes in the tropics, biodiversity may play a limited role for ecosystem multifunctionality due to the potentially large effect of species dominance on biogeochemical functions. However, given the spatial and temporal turnover in species dominance, biodiversity may be critically important for the maintenance and resilience of ecosystem functions.

  12. Gut microbiota diversity and human diseases: should we reintroduce key predators in our ecosystem?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexis eMosca

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Most of the Human diseases affecting westernized countries are associated with dysbiosis and loss of microbial diversity in the gut microbiota. The Western way of life, with a wide use of antibiotics and other environmental triggers, may reduce the number of bacterial predators leading to a decrease in microbial diversity of the Human gut. We argue that this phenomenon is similar to the process of ecosystem impoverishment in macro ecology where human activity decreases ecological niches, the size of predator populations and finally the biodiversity. Such pauperization is fundamental since it reverses the evolution processes, drives life backward into diminished complexity, stability and adaptability. A simple therapeutic approach could thus be to reintroduce bacterial predators and restore a bacterial diversity of the host microbiota.

  13. An ecosystem approach to human health and the prevention of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Tumaco, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Rojas

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A study was conducted during 1996-1997 in 20 villages of Tumaco, Colombia, to evaluate the effectiveness of personal protective measures against cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL. The intervention was effective, but the high costs of the preventive measures and the lack of a more holistic approach hampered the intervention's sustainability. This paper analyzes the results using an ecosystem approach to human health. Using this approach, we found that CL has been present in the study area for a long time and affects farmers and those living closest to the forest. The forest constitutes the habitat for insect vectors (sandflies and parasite reservoirs (wild mammals. Four spatial scales were identified in this ecosystem: residential, village, regional, and global. From the ecosystem perspective, three interventions are proposed to prevent CL in the 20 villages: improve housing construction, organize village housing in clusters, and make diagnosis and treatment of CL more accessible. The design and implementation of these interventions require active involvement by people with the disease (village inhabitants and decision-makers (local authorities.

  14. Linking ecosystem services and human health: the Eco-Health Relationship Browser.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Laura E; Daniel, Jessica; McCorkle, Betsy; Sears, Alexandra; Bush, Kathleen F

    2013-10-01

    Ecosystems provide multiple services, many of which are linked to positive health outcomes. Review objectives were to identify the set of literature related to this research topic, and to design an interactive, web-based tool highlighting the weight of evidence, thus making the information more accessible. A systematic review was conducted to create the Eco-Health Relationship Browser ( http://www.epa.gov/research/healthscience/browser/introduction.html ). The search was conducted in four stages utilizing Google Scholar, PubMed and Science Direct, targeted journals, and targeted keywords; search results were limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2012. The review identified 344 relevant articles; a subset of 169 articles was included in the Browser. Articles retrieved during the search focused on the buffering and health-promotional aspects of ecosystem services. Landscape and Urban Planning, Urban Forestry and Urban Greening, and Health and Place yielded the most articles relevant to this search. Results from the systematic review were used to populate the Browser, which organizes the diverse literature and allows users to visualize the numerous connections between ecosystem services and human health.

  15. Accounting for ecosystem services and biodiversity in Limburg province, the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remme, R.P.

    2016-01-01

    Ecosystem services and biodiversity are important for human well-being. Ecosystem services are the contributions of ecosystems to benefits used in economic and other human activity. This thesis aims to empirically assess how spatial models for ecosystem service flows and biodiversity can be applied

  16. Accounting for ecosystem services and biodiversity in Limburg province, the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remme, R.P.

    2016-01-01

    Ecosystem services and biodiversity are important for human well-being. Ecosystem services are the contributions of ecosystems to benefits used in economic and other human activity. This thesis aims to empirically assess how spatial models for ecosystem service flows and biodiversity can be applied

  17. Modeling an aquatic ecosystem: application of an evolutionary algorithm with genetic doping to reduce prediction uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedel, Michael; Buscema, Massimo

    2016-04-01

    Aquatic ecosystem models can potentially be used to understand the influence of stresses on catchment resource quality. Given that catchment responses are functions of natural and anthropogenic stresses reflected in sparse and spatiotemporal biological, physical, and chemical measurements, an ecosystem is difficult to model using statistical or numerical methods. We propose an artificial adaptive systems approach to model ecosystems. First, an unsupervised machine-learning (ML) network is trained using the set of available sparse and disparate data variables. Second, an evolutionary algorithm with genetic doping is applied to reduce the number of ecosystem variables to an optimal set. Third, the optimal set of ecosystem variables is used to retrain the ML network. Fourth, a stochastic cross-validation approach is applied to quantify and compare the nonlinear uncertainty in selected predictions of the original and reduced models. Results are presented for aquatic ecosystems (tens of thousands of square kilometers) undergoing landscape change in the USA: Upper Illinois River Basin and Central Colorado Assessment Project Area, and Southland region, NZ.

  18. A New Conceptual Model for Business Ecosystem Visualization and Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Felipe Hupsel Vaz

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study has the objective of plotting the effects of network externalities and superstar software for the visualization and analysis of industry ecosystems. The output is made possible by gathering sales from a tracking website, associating each sale to a single consumer and by using a network visualization software. The result is a graph that shows strategic positioning of publishers and platforms, serving as a strategic tool for both academics and professionals. The approach is scalable to other industries and can be used to support analysis on mergers, acquisitions and alliances.

  19. Modelling carbon cycle of agro-forest ecosystems in Lombardy (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colombo R

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a methodology for the estimation of Gross Primary Production (GPP, Net Primary Production (NPP and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP for the main agricultural and forest ecosystems of the Lombardia Region (Italy. The MOD17 model was parameterized according to the different agro-forestry ecosystems and applied at regional scale by using satellite data with a spatial resolution of 250m. The high spatial resolution along with fine classification agro-forestry ecosystems has allowed to accurately analyze the carbon budget of an extremely fragmented and complex environment such as the Lombardia Region. Modeling results showed the role of the forests in the carbon budget at regional scale and represent important information layer for the spatial analysis and for inferring the inter-annual variability of carbon sequestration due to impacts of extreme events and recent climate change (e.g., drought, heat wave, flooding, fires.

  20. Scaling from Flux Towers to Ecosystem Models: Regional Constraints on GPP from Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu-Naser, M.; Campbell, J.; Berry, J. A.; Seibt, U.; Maseyk, K. S.; Torn, M. S.; Biraud, S. C.; Fischer, M. L.; Billesbach, D. P.; Baker, I. T.; Collatz, G. J.; Chen, H.; Montzka, S. A.; Sweeney, C.

    2012-12-01

    Process-level information on terrestrial carbon fluxes are typically observed at small spatial scales (e.g. eddy flux towers) but critical applications exist at much larger spatial scales (e.g. global ecosystem models). New methodologies are needed to fill this spatial gap. Recent work suggests that analysis of atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS) could fill this gap by providing constraints on GPP fluxes at large scales. This proposal is based on evidence that COS plant uptake is quantitatively related to photosynthesis and that COS plant uptake is the dominant COS budget flux influencing atmospheric concentrations over northern extratropical continents. Previous atmospheric analysis of COS has focused on continental or larger scales and only one ecosystem model. Here we explore the spatial and temporal COS variation within North America and their relationship to a range of ecosystem models using regional and global atmospheric transport models. Airborne COS observations are examined from the NOAA-ESRL network including 13 North American airborne sites and a total of 1,447 vertical profiles from years 2004 to 2012. In addition to COS plant uptake, we examined the influence of atmospheric transport treatments, boundary conditions, soil fluxes (mechanistic and empirical), and anthropogenic emissions. The atmospheric COS simulations were consistent with the primary observed spatial and temporal variations in the US mid-continent. This consistency is supportive of ecosystem models because the dominant input for these atmospheric COS simulations is ecosystem model GPP data. However, only the COS simulations driven by a subset of the ecosystem models were able to reproduce the observed COS seasonality in a semiarid cultivated region (ARM/SGP). This subset of ecosystem models produced GPP seasonality that was similar to eddy flux estimates, suggesting a role for COS observations in extending flux tower data to regional spatial scales.

  1. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  2. Response of a Grassland Ecosystem to Climate Change in a Theoretical Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Guodong; MU Mu

    2011-01-01

    The response of a grassland ecosystem to climate change is discussed within the context of a theoretical model.An optimization approach,a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameter (CNOP-P) approach,was employed in this study.The CNOP-P,a perturbation of moisture index in the theoretical model,represents a nonlinear climate perturbation.Two kinds of linear climate perturbations were also used to study the response of the grassland ecosystem to different types of climate changes.The results show that the extent of grassland ecosystem variation caused by the CNOP-P-type climate change is greater than that caused by the two linear types of climate change.In addition,the grassland ecosystem affected by the CNOP-P-type climate change evolved into a desert ecosystem,and the two linear types of climate changes failed within a specific amplitude range when the moisture index recovered to its reference state. Therefore,the grassland ecosystem response to climate change was nonlinear. This study yielded similar results for a desert ecosystem seeded with both living and wilted biomass litter.The quantitative analysis performed in this study also accounted for the role of soil moisture in the root zone and the shading effect of wilted biomass on the grassland ecosystem through nonlinear interactions between soil and vegetation.The results of this study imply that the CNOP-P approach is a potentially effective tool for assessing the impact of nonlinear climate change on grassland ecosystems.

  3. An ecosystem-scale model for the spread of a host-specific forest pathogen in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatala, J.A.; Dietze, M.C.; Crabtree, R.L.; Kendall, K.; Six, D.; Moorcroft, P.R.

    2011-01-01

    The introduction of nonnative pathogens is altering the scale, magnitude, and persistence of forest disturbance regimes in the western United States. In the high-altitude whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) is an introduced fungal pathogen that is now the principal cause of tree mortality in many locations. Although blister rust eradication has failed in the past, there is nonetheless substantial interest in monitoring the disease and its rate of progression in order to predict the future impact of forest disturbances within this critical ecosystem. This study integrates data from five different field-monitoring campaigns from 1968 to 2008 to create a blister rust infection model for sites located throughout the GYE. Our model parameterizes the past rates of blister rust spread in order to project its future impact on highaltitude whitebark pine forests. Because the process of blister rust infection and mortality of individuals occurs over the time frame of many years, the model in this paper operates on a yearly time step and defines a series of whitebark pine infection classes: susceptible, slightly infected, moderately infected, and dead. In our analysis, we evaluate four different infection models that compare local vs. global density dependence on the dynamics of blister rust infection. We compare models in which blister rust infection is: (1) independent of the density of infected trees, (2) locally density-dependent, (3) locally density-dependent with a static global infection rate among all sites, and (4) both locally and globally density-dependent. Model evaluation through the predictive loss criterion for Bayesian analysis supports the model that is both locally and globally density-dependent. Using this best-fit model, we predicted the average residence times for the four stages of blister rust infection in our model, and we found that, on average, whitebark

  4. Collaborative Development Planning Model of Supporting Product in Platform Innovation Ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Wei Zhang; Hamid Reza Karimi; Qingpu Zhang; Shaobo Wu

    2014-01-01

    In order to improve the market value of the product, the platform enterprise often participates in the development process of supporting product of emerging industry's platform innovation ecosystem. This paper puts forward a revenue sharing contract between the platform company and the supporting company by creating a collaborative development model of the supporting product in the ecosystem, and this paper studies the platform enterprise investment resource property's (complementary or subst...

  5. Improving the precision of lake ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying predictors of model uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Kevin C.; Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Read, Emily K.; Solomon, Christopher T.; Adrian, Rita; Hanson, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    Diel changes in dissolved oxygen are often used to estimate gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) in aquatic ecosystems. Despite the widespread use of this approach to understand ecosystem metabolism, we are only beginning to understand the degree and underlying causes of uncertainty for metabolism model parameter estimates. Here, we present a novel approach to improve the precision and accuracy of ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying physical metrics that indicate when metabolism estimates are highly uncertain. Using datasets from seventeen instrumented GLEON (Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network) lakes, we discovered that many physical characteristics correlated with uncertainty, including PAR (photosynthetically active radiation, 400-700 nm), daily variance in Schmidt stability, and wind speed. Low PAR was a consistent predictor of high variance in GPP model parameters, but also corresponded with low ER model parameter variance. We identified a threshold (30% of clear sky PAR) below which GPP parameter variance increased rapidly and was significantly greater in nearly all lakes compared with variance on days with PAR levels above this threshold. The relationship between daily variance in Schmidt stability and GPP model parameter variance depended on trophic status, whereas daily variance in Schmidt stability was consistently positively related to ER model parameter variance. Wind speeds in the range of ~0.8-3 m s–1 were consistent predictors of high variance for both GPP and ER model parameters, with greater uncertainty in eutrophic lakes. Our findings can be used to reduce ecosystem metabolism model parameter uncertainty and identify potential sources of that uncertainty.

  6. Global and niche ecosystem in a simple dynamical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sertorio, L. [Turin Univ., Turin (Italy). Dipt. di Fisica Teorica; Tinetti, G. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy)

    2000-12-01

    In this paper it is adopted the viewpoint that the living ecosystem can be described by a dynamical system, where the variables are the populations of the various species. It is discussed the assumptions which justify the reduction of the number of variables to only three, according to the hierarchy herbs, herbivores, carnivores. In this way the dynamics takes into account a basic physical constraints, namely the global energy chain, where the input is the solar flux. This system is dissipative and stable. The next question is whether the global dynamics may contain a niche. It is tried to define the concept of niche as a subsystem having a self-contained cycle. It is chosen a Lotka-Volterra subsystem as the simplest realization of such a cycle. Moreover it is analyzed which assumptions must be made and which conditions must be satisfied for the appearance of a Lotka-Volterra subsystem within the global energy chain. Then it is showed that while the complex global ecosystem is strong, namely is able to adapt itself to variations of the driving term, the niche is fragile.

  7. Ecosystem carbon storage capacity as affected by disturbance regimes: A general theoretical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weng, Ensheng [University of Oklahoma, Norman; Luo, Yiqi [University of Oklahoma; Wang, Weile [NASA Ames Research Center; Wang, Han [University of Oklahoma, Norman; Hayes, Daniel J [ORNL; McGuire, A. David [University of Alaska; Hastings, Alan [University of California, Davis; Schimel, David [NEON Inc.

    2012-01-01

    Disturbances have been recognized as a key factor shaping terrestrial ecosystem states and dynamics. A general model that quantitatively describes the relationship between carbon storage and disturbance regime is critical for better understanding large scale terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics. We developed a model (REGIME) to quantify ecosystem carbon storage capacities (E[x]) under varying disturbance regimes with an analytical solution E[x] = U {center_dot} {tau}{sub E} {center_dot} {lambda}{lambda} + s {tau} 1, where U is ecosystem carbon influx, {tau}{sub E} is ecosystem carbon residence time, and {tau}{sub 1} is the residence time of the carbon pool affected by disturbances (biomass pool in this study). The disturbance regime is characterized by the mean disturbance interval ({lambda}) and the mean disturbance severity (s). It is a Michaelis-Menten-type equation illustrating the saturation of carbon content with mean disturbance interval. This model analytically integrates the deterministic ecosystem carbon processes with stochastic disturbance events to reveal a general pattern of terrestrial carbon dynamics at large scales. The model allows us to get a sense of the sensitivity of ecosystems to future environmental changes just by a few calculations. According to the REGIME model, for example, approximately 1.8 Pg C will be lost in the high-latitude regions of North America (>45{sup o} N) if fire disturbance intensity increases around 5.7 time the current intensity to the end of the twenty-first century, which will require around 12% increases in net primary productivity (NPP) to maintain stable carbon stocks. If the residence time decreased 10% at the same time additional 12.5% increases in NPP are required to keep current C stocks. The REGIME model also lays the foundation for analytically modeling the interactions between deterministic biogeochemical processes and stochastic disturbance events.

  8. Ecosystem Modeling of Biological Processes to Global Budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher, Potter S.; Condon, Estelle (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    From an ecological perspective, the search for life on distant planets begins from several key assumptions. The first of these is that, viewed from a remote location in space, the signature of life on a distant planet will be the result of net gas exchange of organisms with their environment. On the basis of extensive biogeochemical measurements and biogenic trace gas fluxes in modem Earth environments, it is probable that certain groups of organisms both produce and consume the same trace gas(es) within a single bioprofile of Solid (porous) substrate or surface water. The net gas exchange rate with the atmosphere measured at the living surface is frequently the result of competing metabolic reactions, which may carried out by different functional groups of organisms located at dissimilar 'climatic' or chemical microsites within the same bioprofile. Biogenic gases produced at one (deep) level of a bioprofile may be consumed by another functional group of organisms located closer to the level of surface exchange with the atmosphere. A second key assumption is that the net biogenic fluxes of atmospheric gases on Earth can be used to infer relative abundance and functional composition of the major organisms on a distant planet. Examples of this principle include the presence of methanogenic microorganisms abundant today in freshwater ecosystems worldwide, which are major source of atmospheric methane and its seasonal variability in Earth's atmosphere. A third assumption is that scaling up biogenic gas fluxes from a single biological community to the planetary level requires flux measurements at the whole ecosystem level. This implies that measurements of biogenic gas exchange with the global atmosphere cannot be easily inferred from measurements of gas production rates of single organisms, which may have been isolated in some manner from the setting of their native ecosystem. Hence, the unit of biological organization used in modern Earth Science for scaling up to

  9. Elk migration patterns and human activity influence wolf habitat use in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Abigail A; Kauffman, Matthew J; Middleton, Arthur D; Jimenez, Michael D; McWhirter, Douglas E; Barber, Jarrett; Gerow, Kenneth

    2012-12-01

    Identifying the ecological dynamics underlying human-wildlife conflicts is important for the management and conservation of wildlife populations. In landscapes still occupied by large carnivores, many ungulate prey species migrate seasonally, yet little empirical research has explored the relationship between carnivore distribution and ungulate migration strategy. In this study, we evaluate the influence of elk (Cervus elaphus) distribution and other landscape features on wolf (Canis lupus) habitat use in an area of chronic wolf-livestock conflict in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA. Using three years of fine-scale wolf (n = 14) and elk (n = 81) movement data, we compared the seasonal habitat use of wolves in an area dominated by migratory elk with that of wolves in an adjacent area dominated by resident elk. Most migratory elk vacate the associated winter wolf territories each summer via a 40-60 km migration, whereas resident elk remain accessible to wolves year-round. We used a generalized linear model to compare the relative probability of wolf use as a function of GIS-based habitat covariates in the migratory and resident elk areas. Although wolves in both areas used elk-rich habitat all year, elk density in summer had a weaker influence on the habitat use of wolves in the migratory elk area than the resident elk area. Wolves employed a number of alternative strategies to cope with the departure of migratory elk. Wolves in the two areas also differed in their disposition toward roads. In winter, wolves in the migratory elk area used habitat close to roads, while wolves in the resident elk area avoided roads. In summer, wolves in the migratory elk area were indifferent to roads, while wolves in resident elk areas strongly avoided roads, presumably due to the location of dens and summering elk combined with different traffic levels. Study results can help wildlife managers to anticipate the movements and establishment of wolf packs as they expand into areas

  10. Historical changes of the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem: modelling the role and impact of primary productivity and fisheries changes over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piroddi, Chiara; Coll, Marta; Liquete, Camino; Macias, Diego; Greer, Krista; Buszowski, Joe; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Danovaro, Roberto; Christensen, Villy

    2017-01-01

    The Mediterranean Sea has been defined “under siege” because of intense pressures from multiple human activities; yet there is still insufficient information on the cumulative impact of these stressors on the ecosystem and its resources. We evaluate how the historical (1950–2011) trends of various ecosystems groups/species have been impacted by changes in primary productivity (PP) combined with fishing pressure. We investigate the whole Mediterranean Sea using a food web modelling approach. Results indicate that both changes in PP and fishing pressure played an important role in driving species dynamics. Yet, PP was the strongest driver upon the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem. This highlights the importance of bottom-up processes in controlling the biological characteristics of the region. We observe a reduction in abundance of important fish species (~34%, including commercial and non-commercial) and top predators (~41%), and increases of the organisms at the bottom of the food web (~23%). Ecological indicators, such as community biomass, trophic levels, catch and diversity indicators, reflect such changes and show overall ecosystem degradation over time. Since climate change and fishing pressure are expected to intensify in the Mediterranean Sea, this study constitutes a baseline reference for stepping forward in assessing the future management of the basin. PMID:28290518

  11. Historical changes of the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem: modelling the role and impact of primary productivity and fisheries changes over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piroddi, Chiara; Coll, Marta; Liquete, Camino; Macias, Diego; Greer, Krista; Buszowski, Joe; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Danovaro, Roberto; Christensen, Villy

    2017-03-01

    The Mediterranean Sea has been defined “under siege” because of intense pressures from multiple human activities; yet there is still insufficient information on the cumulative impact of these stressors on the ecosystem and its resources. We evaluate how the historical (1950-2011) trends of various ecosystems groups/species have been impacted by changes in primary productivity (PP) combined with fishing pressure. We investigate the whole Mediterranean Sea using a food web modelling approach. Results indicate that both changes in PP and fishing pressure played an important role in driving species dynamics. Yet, PP was the strongest driver upon the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem. This highlights the importance of bottom-up processes in controlling the biological characteristics of the region. We observe a reduction in abundance of important fish species (~34%, including commercial and non-commercial) and top predators (~41%), and increases of the organisms at the bottom of the food web (~23%). Ecological indicators, such as community biomass, trophic levels, catch and diversity indicators, reflect such changes and show overall ecosystem degradation over time. Since climate change and fishing pressure are expected to intensify in the Mediterranean Sea, this study constitutes a baseline reference for stepping forward in assessing the future management of the basin.

  12. Plant diversity effects on ecosystem evapotranspiration and carbon uptake: a controlled environment (Ecotron) and modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milcu, Alexandru; Roy, Jacques

    2016-04-01

    Effects of species and functional diversity of plants on ecosystem evapotranspiration and carbon fluxes have been rarely assessed simultaneously. Here we present the results from an experiment that combined a lysimeter setup in a controlled environment facility (Ecotron) with large ecosystem samples/ monoliths originating from a long-term biodiversity experiment ("The Jena Experiment") and a modelling approach. We aimed at (1) quantifying the impact of plant species richness (4 vs. 16 species) on day- and night-time ecosystem water vapor fluxes and carbon uptake, (2) partitioning ecosystem evapotranspiration into evaporation and plant transpiration using the Shuttleworth and Wallace (SW) energy partitioning model, and (3) identifying the most parsimonious predictors of water vapor vapor and CO2 fluxes using plant functional trait-based metrics such as functional diversity and community weighted means. The SW model indicated that at low plant species richness, a higher proportion of the available energy was diverted to evaporation (a non-productive flux), while at higher species richness the proportion of ecosystem transpiration (a production-related water flux) increased. This led to an increased carbon gain per amount of water vapor loss (i.e. increased water use efficiency). While the LAI controlled the carbon and water fluxes, we also found that the diversity of plant functional traits, and in particular of leaf nitrogen concentration are potential important predictors of ecosystem transpiration and carbon uptake and consequently significantly contributed to increase in water use efficiency in communities with higher plant diversity.

  13. Analyzing the ecosystem carbon and hydrologic characteristics of forested wetland using a biogeochemical process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianbo Cui; Changsheng Li; Carl Trettin

    2005-01-01

    A comprehensive biogeochemical model, Wetland-DNDC, was applied to analyze the carbon and hydrologic characteristics of forested wetland ecosystem at Minnesota (MN) and Florida (FL) sites. The model simulates the flows of carbon, energy, and water in forested wetlands. Modeled carbon dynamics depends on physiological plant factors, the size of plant pools,...

  14. Serving many at once: How a database approach can create unity in dynamical ecosystem modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooij, W.M.; Brederveld, R.J.; de Klein, J.J.M; DeAngelis, D.L.; Downing, Andrea; Faber, M.; Gerla, Daan J.; Hipsey, M.R.; 't Hoen, J.; Janse, J.H.; Janssen, A.B.G.; Jeuken, M.; Kooi, B.W.; Lischke, B.; Petzoldt, T.; Postma, L.; Schep, S.A.; Scholten, H.; Teurlincx, S.; Thiange, C.; Trolle, D.; van Dam, A.A.; Van Gerven, L.P.A.; Van Nes, E.H.; Kuiper, J.J.

    2014-01-01

    Simulation modelling in ecology is a field that is becoming increasingly compartmentalized. Here we propose a Database Approach To Modelling (DATM) to create unity in dynamical ecosystem modelling with differential equations. In this approach the storage of ecological knowledge is independent of the

  15. Serving many at once: How a database approach can create unity in dynamical ecosystem modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooij, W.M.; Brederveld, R.J.; de Klein, J.J.M.; Deangelis, D.L.; Downing, A.S.; Faber, M.J.; Gerla, D.J.; Hipsey, M.R.; 't Hoen, J.; Janse, J.H.; Janssen, A.B.G.; Jeuken, M.; Kooi, B.W.; Lischke, B.; Petzoldt, T.; Postma, L.; Schep, S.A.; Scholten, H.; Teurlincx, S.; Thiange, C.; Trolle, D.; van Dam, A.A.; van Gerven, L.P.A.; van Nes, E.H.; Kuipers, J.

    2014-01-01

    Simulation modelling in ecology is a field that is becoming increasingly compartmentalized. Here we propose a Database Approach To Modelling (DATM) to create unity in dynamical ecosystem modelling with differential equations. In this approach the storage of ecological knowledge is independent of the

  16. Ecosystem functioning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jax, Kurt

    2010-01-01

    "In the face of decreasing biodiversity and ongoing global changes, maintaining ecosystem functioning is seen both as a means to preserve biological diversity as well as for safeguarding human well...

  17. Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Bopp

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth system models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCPs over the 21st century. For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in the 2090s (compared to the 1990s for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 (±0.72 °C, −0.33 (±0.003 pH unit, −3.45 (±0.44% and −8.6 (±7.9%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 (±0.45 °C, −0.07 (±0.001 pH unit, −1.81 (±0.31% and −2.0 (±4.1%, respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns and thus do not change coincidentally. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of subsurface O2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity. These high uncertainties in projections of primary productivity and subsurface

  18. Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafyllou, G.

    2014-03-01

    The Red Sea exhibits complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamics, which vary both in time and space. These dynamics have been explored through the development and application of a 3-D ecosystem model. The simulation system comprises two off-line coupled submodels: the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), both adapted for the Red Sea. The results from an annual simulation under climatological forcing are presented. Simulation results are in good agreement with satellite and in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the Red Sea ecosystem. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the Red Sea ecosystem functioning, including the exchange with the Gulf of Aden, which is a major driving mechanism for the whole Red Sea ecosystem and the winter overturning taking place in the north. Some model limitations, mainly related to the dynamics of the extended reef system located in the southern part of the Red Sea, which is not currently represented in the model, still need to be addressed.

  19. Diversity loss with persistent human disturbance increases vulnerability to ecosystem collapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDougall, A S; McCann, K S; Gellner, G; Turkington, R

    2013-02-07

    Long-term and persistent human disturbances have simultaneously altered the stability and diversity of ecological systems, with disturbances directly reducing functional attributes such as invasion resistance, while eliminating the buffering effects of high species diversity. Theory predicts that this combination of environmental change and diversity loss increases the risk of abrupt and potentially irreversible ecosystem collapse, but long-term empirical evidence from natural systems is lacking. Here we demonstrate this relationship in a degraded but species-rich pyrogenic grassland in which the combined effects of fire suppression, invasion and trophic collapse have created a species-poor grassland that is highly productive, resilient to yearly climatic fluctuations, and resistant to invasion, but vulnerable to rapid collapse after the re-introduction of fire. We initially show how human disturbance has created a negative relationship between diversity and function, contrary to theoretical predictions. Fire prevention since the mid-nineteenth century is associated with the loss of plant species but it has stabilized high-yield annual production and invasion resistance, comparable to a managed high-yield low-diversity agricultural system. In managing for fire suppression, however, a hidden vulnerability to sudden environmental change emerges that is explained by the elimination of the buffering effects of high species diversity. With the re-introduction of fire, grasslands only persist in areas with remnant concentrations of native species, in which a range of rare and mostly functionally redundant plants proliferate after burning and prevent extensive invasion including a rapid conversion towards woodland. This research shows how biodiversity can be crucial for ecosystem stability despite appearing functionally insignificant beforehand, a relationship probably applicable to many ecosystems given the globally prevalent combination of intensive long-term land

  20. The influence of conceptual model uncertainty on management decisions for a groundwater-dependent ecosystem in karst

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gondwe, Bibi R. N.; Merediz-Alonso, Gonzalo; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2011-03-01

    SummaryGroundwater management in karst is often based on limited hydrologic understanding of the aquifer. The geologic heterogeneities controlling the water flow are often insufficiently mapped. As karst aquifers are very vulnerable to pollution, groundwater protection and land use management are crucial to preserve water resources and maintain ecosystem services. Multiple Model Simulation highlights the impact of model structure uncertainty on management decisions using several plausible conceptual models. Multiple Model Simulation was used for this purpose on the Yucatan Peninsula, which is one of the world's largest karstic aquifers. The aquifer is the only available fresh water source for human users and ecosystems on the Peninsula. One of Mexico's largest protected areas, the groundwater-dependent Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve (5280 km 2) is fed by the aquifer's thin freshwater lens. Increasing groundwater abstractions and pollution threatens the fresh water resource, and consequently the ecosystem integrity of both Sian Ka'an and the adjacent coastal environment. Seven different catchment-scale conceptual models were implemented in a distributed hydrological modelling approach. Equivalent porous medium conceptualizations with uniform and heterogeneous distributions of hydraulic conductivities were used. The models demonstrated that Sian Ka'an's wetlands are indeed groundwater-fed. The water quantities in the wetlands and the flooding dynamics are determined by the larger groundwater catchment. The overall water balance for the model domain showed that recharge constitutes 4400 ± 700 million m 3/year. Of this, 4-12% exits as overland flow, and 88-96% exits as groundwater flow. Net groundwater outflow from the model domain to the north via the Holbox fracture zone appears as an important cross-basin transfer between regions of the Peninsula. Probability maps of Sian Ka'an's catchment were obtained through automatic calibration and stochastic modelling

  1. Diversity of key players in the microbial ecosystems of the human body.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordán, Ferenc; Lauria, Mario; Scotti, Marco; Nguyen, Thanh-Phuong; Praveen, Paurush; Morine, Melissa; Priami, Corrado

    2015-10-30

    Coexisting bacteria form various microbial communities in human body parts. In these ecosystems they interact in various ways and the properties of the interaction network can be related to the stability and functional diversity of the local bacterial community. In this study, we analyze the interaction network among bacterial OTUs in 11 locations of the human body. These belong to two major groups. One is the digestive system and the other is the female genital tract. In each local ecosystem we determine the key species, both the ones being in key positions in the interaction network and the ones that dominate by frequency. Beyond identifying the key players and discussing their biological relevance, we also quantify and compare the properties of the 11 networks. The interaction networks of the female genital system and the digestive system show totally different architecture. Both the topological properties and the identity of the key groups differ. Key groups represent four phyla of prokaryotes. Some groups appear in key positions in several locations, while others are assigned only to a single body part. The key groups of the digestive and the genital tracts are totally different.

  2. The role of ecosystem function and emergent relationships in the assessment of global marine ecosystem models: a case study with ERSEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. de Mora

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem models are often assessed using quantitative metrics of absolute ecosystem state, but these model-data comparisons are disproportionately vulnerable to discrepancies in the location of important circulation features. An alternative method is to demonstrate the models capacity to represent ecosystem function; the emergence of a coherent natural relationship in a simulation is a strong indication that the model has a appropriate representation of the ecosystem functions that lead to the emergent relationship. Furthermore, as emergent properties are large scale properties of the system, model validation with emergent properties is possible even when there is very little or no appropriate data for the region under study, or when the hydrodynamic component of the model differs significantly from that observed in nature at the same location and time. A selection of published meta-analyses are used to establish the validity of a complex marine ecosystem model and to demonstrate the power of validation with emergent properties. These relationships include the phytoplankton community structure, the ratio of carbon to chlorophyll in phytoplankton and particulate organic matter, the ratio of particulate organic carbon to particulate organic nitrogen and the stoichiometric balance of the ecosystem. These metrics can also inform aspects of the marine ecosystem model not available from traditional quantitative and qualitative methods. For instance, these emergent properties can be used to validate the design decisions of the model, such as the range of phytoplankton functional types and their behaviour, the stoichiometric flexibility with regards to each nutrient, and the choice of fixed or variable carbon to nitrogen ratios.

  3. Implementing a multispecies size-spectrum model in a data-poor ecosystem

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Chongliang; CHEN Yong; THOMPSON Katherine; REN Yiping

    2016-01-01

    Multispecies ecological models have been used for predicting the effects of fishing activity and evaluating the performance of management strategies. Size-spectrum models are one type of physiologically-structured ecological model that provide a feasible approach to describing fish communities in terms of individual dietary variation and ontogenetic niche shift. Despite the potential of ecological models in improving our understanding of ecosystems, their application is usually limited for data-poor fisheries. As a first step in implementing ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM), this study built a size-spectrum model for the fish community in the Haizhou Bay, China. We describe data collection procedures and model parameterization to facilitate the implementation of such size-spectrum models for future studies of data-poor ecosystems. The effects of fishing on the ecosystem were exemplified with a range of fishing effort and were monitored with a set of ecological indicators. Total community biomass, biodiversity index, W-statistic, LFI (Large fish index), MeanW (mean body weight) and Slope (slope of community size spectra) showed a strong non-linear pattern in response to fishing pressure, and largest fishing effort did not generate the most drastic responses in certain scenarios. We emphasize the value and feasibility of developing size-spectrum models to capture ecological dynamics and suggest limitations as well as potential for model improvement. This study aims to promote a wide use of this type of model in support of EBFM.

  4. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecl, Gretta T; Araújo, Miguel B; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia; Bonebrake, Timothy C; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Evengård, Birgitta; Falconi, Lorena; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Jarzyna, Marta A; Jennings, Sarah; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif I; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; Mitchell, Nicola J; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Popova, Ekaterina; Robinson, Sharon A; Scheffers, Brett R; Shaw, Justine D; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Sunday, Jennifer M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wernberg, Thomas; Wapstra, Erik; Williams, Stephen E

    2017-03-31

    Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  5. Bottlenecks in the transmission of antibiotic resistance from natural ecosystems to human bacterial pathogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose L Martinez

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available It is generally accepted that resistance genes acquired by human pathogens trough horizontal gene transfer have been originated in environmental, non pathogenic bacteria. As the consequence, there exists an increasing concern on the role that natural, non-clinical ecosystems, may play on the evolution of resistance. Recent studies have shown that the variability of determinants that can provide antibiotic resistance upon their expression in a heterologous host is much larger than what is actually found in human pathogens. Along the review, the role that different processes as founder effect, ecological connectivity, fitness costs or second-order selection may have on the establishment of a specific resistance determinant in the population of bacterial pathogens is analysed.

  6. Surface heat fluxes and ecosystem function in the Cretan Sea (eastern Mediterranean: a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Siddorn

    Full Text Available As a component of the Mediterranean Forecast System Pilot Project, a data buoy was deployed in the Cretan Sea. A 1-D ecosystem model of the site has been used to investigate the role of surface heat fluxes in determining modelled ecosystem behaviour. The method of calculation of these fluxes, the quality of the data used, and the temporal resolution of the data all had an impact upon the modelled ecosystem function. The effects of the changes in heat flux formulation were substantial, with both annually averaged properties of the system and the seasonal evolution of the biology being affected. It was also found that the ecosystem model was extremely sensitive to the accuracy of the meteorological forcing data used, with substantial changes in biology found when offsets in the forcing data were imposed. The frequency of forcing data was relatively unimportant in determining the biological function, although lower frequency forcing damped high frequency variability in the biology. During periods of mixing the biology showed an amplified response to changes in physical dynamics, but during periods of stratification the variations in the physics were found to be less important. Zooplankton showed more sensitivity to physical variability than either phytoplankton or bacteria. The consequences for ecosystem modelling are discussed.

    Key words. Oceanography: physical (air-sea interactions; turbulence, diffusion, and mixing processes – Oceanography: biological and chemical (plankton

  7. A conceptual ecosystem model of microbial communities in enhanced biological phosphorus removal plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Per Halkjaer; Mielczarek, Artur Tomasz; Kragelund, Caroline; Nielsen, Jeppe Lund; Saunders, Aaron Marc; Kong, Yunhong; Hansen, Aviaja Anna; Vollertsen, Jes

    2010-09-01

    The microbial populations in 25 full-scale activated sludge wastewater treatment plants with enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR plants) have been intensively studied over several years. Most of the important bacterial groups involved in nitrification, denitrification, biological P removal, fermentation, and hydrolysis have been identified and quantified using quantitative culture-independent molecular methods. Surprisingly, a limited number of core species was present in all plants, constituting on average approx. 80% of the entire communities in the plants, showing that the microbial populations in EBPR plants are rather similar and not very diverse, as sometimes suggested. By focusing on these organisms it is possible to make a comprehensive ecosystem model, where many important aspects in relation to microbial ecosystems and wastewater treatment can be investigated. We have reviewed the current knowledge about these microorganisms with focus on key ecophysiological factors and combined this into a conceptual ecosystem model for EBPR plants. It includes the major pathways of carbon flow with specific organic substances, the dominant populations involved in the transformations, interspecies interactions, and the key factors controlling their presence and activity. We believe that the EBPR process is a perfect model system for studies of microbial ecology in water engineering systems and that this conceptual model can be used for proposing and testing theories based on microbial ecosystem theories, for the development of new and improved quantitative ecosystem models and is beneficial for future design and management of wastewater treatment systems. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. An advanced object-based software framework for complex ecosystem modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sydelko, P. J.; Dolph, J. E.; Majerus, K. A.; Taxon, T. N.

    2000-06-29

    Military land managers and decision makers face an ever increasing challenge to balance maximum flexibility for the mission with a diverse set of multiple land use, social, political, and economic goals. In addition, these goals encompass environmental requirements for maintaining ecosystem health and sustainability over the long term. Spatiotemporal modeling and simulation in support of adaptive ecosystem management can be best accomplished through a dynamic, integrated, and flexible approach that incorporates scientific and technological components into a comprehensive ecosystem modeling framework. The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) integrates ecological models and decision support techniques through a geographic information system (GIS)-based backbone. Recently, an object-oriented (OO) architectural framework was developed for IDLAMS (OO-IDLAMS). This OO-IDLAMS Prototype was built upon and leverages from the Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) developed by Argonne National Laboratory. DIAS is an object-based architectural framework that affords a more integrated, dynamic, and flexible approach to comprehensive ecosystem modeling than was possible with the GIS-based integration approach of the original IDLAMS. The flexibility, dynamics, and interoperability demonstrated through this case study of an object-oriented approach have the potential to provide key technology solutions for many of the military's multiple-use goals and needs for integrated natural resource planning and ecosystem management.

  9. Probability Models for the Distribution of Copepods in Different Coastal Ecosystems Along the Straits of Malacca

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matias-Peralta, Hazel Monica; Ghodsi, Alireza; Shitan, Mahendran; Yusoff, Fatimah Md.

    Copepods are the most abundant microcrustaceans in the marine waters and are the major food resource for many commercial fish species. In addition, changes in the distribution and population composition of copepods may also serve as an indicator of global climate changes. Therefore, it is important to model the copepod distribution in different ecosystems. Copepod samples were collected from three different ecosystems (seagrass area, cage aquaculture area and coastal waters off shrimp aquaculture farm) along the coastal waters of the Malacca Straits over a one year period. In this study the major statistical analysis consisted of fitting different probability models. This paper highlights the fitting of probability distributions and discusses the adequateness of the fitted models. The usefulness of these fitted models would enable one to make probability statements about the distribution of copepods in three different ecosystems.

  10. Untangling human development and natural gradients: implications of underlying correlation structure for linking landscapes and riverine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasmin Lucero; E. Ashley Steel; Kelly M. Burnett; Kelly. Christiansen

    2011-01-01

    Increasingly, ecologists seek to identify and quantify relationships between landscape gradients and aquatic ecosystems. Considerable statistical challenges emerge in this effort, some of which are attributable to multicollinearity between human development and landscape gradients. In this paper, we measure the covariation between human development—such as agriculture...

  11. Indicators and Methods for Constructing a U.S. Human Well-being Index (HWBI) for Ecosystem Services Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humans are dependent upon the services provided by nature, and unless we effectively account for the range of values from ecosystems in our efforts to protect the environment, we cannot sustain human well-being. In light of this dependence, a national measure of well-being is nee...

  12. Brucellosis at the animal/ecosystem/human interface at the beginning of the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godfroid, J; Scholz, H C; Barbier, T; Nicolas, C; Wattiau, P; Fretin, D; Whatmore, A M; Cloeckaert, A; Blasco, J M; Moriyon, I; Saegerman, C; Muma, J B; Al Dahouk, S; Neubauer, H; Letesson, J-J

    2011-11-01

    Following the recent discovery of new Brucella strains from different animal species and from the environment, ten Brucella species are nowadays included in the genus Brucella. Although the intracellular trafficking of Brucella is well described, the strategies developed by Brucella to survive and multiply in phagocytic and non-phagocytic cells, particularly to access nutriments during its intracellular journey, are still largely unknown. Metabolism and virulence of Brucella are now considered to be two sides of the same coin. Mechanisms presiding to the colonization of the pregnant uterus in different animal species are not known. Vaccination is the cornerstone of control programs in livestock and although the S19, RB51 (both in cattle) and Rev 1 (in sheep and goats) vaccines have been successfully used worldwide, they have drawbacks and thus the ideal brucellosis vaccine is still very much awaited. There is no vaccine available for pigs and wildlife. Animal brucellosis control strategies differ in the developed and the developing world. Most emphasis is put on eradication and on risk analysis to avoid the re-introduction of Brucella in the developed world. Information related to the prevalence of brucellosis is still scarce in the developing world and control programs are rarely implemented. Since there is no vaccine available for humans, prevention of human brucellosis relies on its control in the animal reservoir. Brucella is also considered to be an agent to be used in bio- and agroterrorism attacks. At the animal/ecosystem/human interface it is critical to reduce opportunities for Brucella to jump host species as already seen in livestock, wildlife and humans. This task is a challenge for the future in terms of veterinary public health, as for wildlife and ecosystem managers and will need a "One Health" approach to be successful.

  13. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  14. How important is diversity for capturing environmental-change responses in ecosystem models?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

    2014-01-01

    Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic plankton diversity. Diversity, however, may affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Here we use a global ocean...... mixing causes diversity and primary-production changes that turn out to be largely independent of the number of coexisting phytoplankton subtypes. The way diversity is represented in the model provides a small number of niches with respect to nutrient use in accordance with the PFTs defined in the model...

  15. Urban river restoration: implications on channel sedimentation patterns and associated ecosystem and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, H.; Gurnell, A.; Heppell, K.; Spencer, K.

    2012-04-01

    Urban river restoration, which alters the physical and hydraulic conditions of rivers, creates rivers favourable to increased sedimentation through greater sediment availability and heterogeneous flow patterns. Sediments, particularly finer-grained, store contaminants including metals which can have detrimental impacts upon aquatic ecosystems and potentially human health. This research therefore looks at the effect of urban river restoration practices upon sedimentation patterns, the associated changes in sediment metal storage and the potential impact upon river function and use in terms of the aquatic ecosystem and human health. Research was undertaken at four sites on urban rivers in London. The spatial extent of different bed sediment types (unvegetated gravel, sand, finer and sediment around in-channel vegetation) in adjacent restored and unrestored stretches was mapped in July 2010. Additionally, sediments were sampled through the year and analysed for a range of metals and sediment characteristics. Two sites (Chinbrook Meadows and Sutcliffe Park) showed a clear difference in bed sediment type channel cover between the restored and unrestored stretches. The majority of the concrete-lined unrestored stretch at Chinbrook Meadows had no sediment deposition, whereas the restored stretch had over half of the channel occupied by finer sediment either on the open channel bed or accumulated around in-channel vegetation. At Sutcliffe Park, the dominant bed sediment type in the restored stretch was finer sediment on the open bed and accumulated around in-channel vegetation, whereas in the unrestored stretch the dominant bed sediment type was gravel. At both sites there were significant differences in metal concentrations and sediment characteristics between bed sediment types. Metal concentrations, organic matter and % <63µm were generally higher in the finer sediment whether on the open bed or around in-channel vegetation. Total loadings of all metals were greater in

  16. The terrestrial ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loefgren, Anders (EcoAnalytica, Haegersten (Sweden)) (ed.)

    2008-12-15

    This report describes the terrestrial ecosystems in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas by summarizing ecological data and data from disciplines such as hydrology, quaternary geology and chemistry. The description therefore includes a number of different processes that drive element fluxes in the ecosystems, such as net primary production, heterotrophic respiration, transpiration, and horizontal transport from land to streams and lakes. Moreover, the human appropriation of the landscape is described with regard to land use and potential and actual utilization of food resources both today and in a historical perspective

  17. Coupling ocean colour remote sensing data into physical-ecosystem models: mapping uncertainty distributions from space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, David; Twardowski, Mike; Trees, Chuck; Sanjuan Calzado, Violeta

    2014-05-01

    Ocean colour remote sensing (OCRS) has transformed our understanding of complex feedback processes linking physical forcing events to biogeochemical responses. With continuous daily global coverage extending beyond the last decade, OCRS has become established as an essential global climate variable with potential use as a sensitive indicator of regional and global response to changing climate. There is increasing focus on use of OCRS data for validation and assimilation into coupled physical-ecosystem models for both environmental and operational applications. It is therefore essential that OCRS data products are not only optimised for maximum accuracy, but are also provided to end users with appropriate uncertainties. A simple spectral deconvolution model will be presented along with a new bootstrap approach for estimating product uncertainties. This approach can be adapted for both remote sensing and in situ data, opening up the possibility of mapping uncertainty distributions in 3-D for the first time, and can be applied to other established OCRS data products, including the existent historic data set. Ecosystem models seek to reproduce and predict ocean biogeochemical processes, where the models are constrained by physical parameters such as: wind, currents, density and light. The hydrographic aspects of marine ecosystems can generally be defined through ocean circulation models, which are largely independent of the ecosystem itself. The physical optics determining the light environment, on the other hand, are two-way coupled with ecosystem models since light interacts with seawater and suspended constituents. The Optical Physical and Ecosystem Regional Assessment (OPERA) model proposes a more comprehensive and challenging approach, where all optical interactions occurring within the volume of water are taken into account, thus providing a more accurate definition of light dependent processes.

  18. Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lokupitiya, E.; Denning, A. S.; Schaefer, K.; Ricciuto, D.; Anderson, R.; Arain, M. A.; Baker, I.; Barr, A. G.; Chen, G.; Chen, J. M.; Ciais, P.; Cook, D. R.; Dietze, M.; El Maayar, M.; Fischer, M.; Grant, R.; Hollinger, D.; Izaurralde, C.; Jain, A.; Kucharik, C.; Li, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, L.; Matamala, R.; Peylin, P.; Price, D.; Running, S. W.; Sahoo, A.; Sprintsin, M.; Suyker, A. E.; Tian, H.; Tonitto, C.; Torn, M.; Verbeeck, Hans; Verma, S. B.; Xue, Y.

    2016-06-03

    Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fed sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO2 seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.

  19. Population dynamics of species-rich ecosystems: the mixture of matrix population models approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Frédéric; Rossi, Vivien; Guillot, Gilles;

    2013-01-01

    Matrix population models are widely used to predict population dynamics, but when applied to species-rich ecosystems with many rare species, the small population sample sizes hinder a good fit of species-specific models. This issue can be overcome by assigning species to groups to increase the size...... species with similar population dynamics....

  20. Exploring Third-Grade Student Model-Based Explanations about Plant Relationships within an Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zangori, Laura; Forbes, Cory T.

    2015-01-01

    Elementary students should have opportunities to develop scientific models to reason and build understanding about how and why plants depend on relationships within an ecosystem for growth and survival. However, scientific modeling practices are rarely included within elementary science learning environments and disciplinary content is often…

  1. Modelling marine ecosystem response to climate change and trawling in the North Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Molen, J.; Aldridge, J.N.; Coughlan, C.; Parker, E.R.; Stephens, D; Ruardij, P.

    2013-01-01

    The marine ecosystem response to climate change and demersal trawling was investigated using the coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical water column model GOTM-ERSEM-BFM for three contrasting sites in the North Sea. Climate change forcing was derived from the HadRM3-PPE-UK regional climate model for

  2. Designing Informal Learning Experiences for Early Career Academics Using a Knowledge Ecosystem Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Faye; Partridge, Helen; Bruce, Christine; Hemmings, Brian

    2017-01-01

    This article presents a "knowledge ecosystem" model of how early career academics experience using information to learn while building their social networks for developmental purposes. Developed using grounded theory methodology, the model offers a way of conceptualising how to empower early career academics through (1) agency…

  3. A dynamic object-oriented architecture approach to ecosystem modeling and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolph, J. E.; Majerus, K. A.; Sydelko, P. J.; Taxon, T. N.

    1999-04-09

    Modeling and simulation in support of adaptive ecosystem management can be better accomplished through a dynamic, integrated, and flexible approach that incorporates scientific and technological components into a comprehensive ecosystem-modeling framework. The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) integrates ecological models and decision support techniques, through a geographic information system (GIS)-based framework. The Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) sponsored the development of IDLAMS. Initially built upon a GIS framework, IDLAMS is migrating to an object-oriented (OO) architectural framework. An object-oriented architecture is more flexible and modular. It allows disparate applications and dynamic models to be integrated in a manner that minimizes (or eliminates) the need to rework or recreate the system as new models are added to the suite. In addition, an object-oriented design makes it easier to provide run-time feedback among models, thereby making it a more dynamic tool for exploring and providing insight into the interactions among ecosystem processes. Finally, an object-oriented design encourages the reuse of existing technology because OO-IDLAMS is able to integrate disparate models, databases, or applications executed in their native languages. Reuse is also accomplished through a structured approach to building a consistent and reusable object library. This reusability can substantially reduce the time and effort needed to develop future integrated ecosystem simulations.

  4. Modeling Complex Marine Ecosystems: An Investigation of Two Teaching Approaches with Fifth Graders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaevripidou, M.; Constantinou, C. P.; Zacharia, Z. C.

    2007-01-01

    This study investigated acquisition and transfer of the modeling ability of fifth graders in various domains. Teaching interventions concentrated on the topic of marine ecosystems either through a modeling-based approach or a worksheet-based approach. A quasi-experimental (pre-post comparison study) design was used. The control group (n = 17)…

  5. Assimilating satellite-based canopy height within an ecosystem model to estimate aboveground forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joetzjer, E.; Pillet, M.; Ciais, P.; Barbier, N.; Chave, J.; Schlund, M.; Maignan, F.; Barichivich, J.; Luyssaert, S.; Hérault, B.; von Poncet, F.; Poulter, B.

    2017-07-01

    Despite advances in Earth observation and modeling, estimating tropical biomass remains a challenge. Recent work suggests that integrating satellite measurements of canopy height within ecosystem models is a promising approach to infer biomass. We tested the feasibility of this approach to retrieve aboveground biomass (AGB) at three tropical forest sites by assimilating remotely sensed canopy height derived from a texture analysis algorithm applied to the high-resolution Pleiades imager in the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems Canopy (ORCHIDEE-CAN) ecosystem model. While mean AGB could be estimated within 10% of AGB derived from census data in average across sites, canopy height derived from Pleiades product was spatially too smooth, thus unable to accurately resolve large height (and biomass) variations within the site considered. The error budget was evaluated in details, and systematic errors related to the ORCHIDEE-CAN structure contribute as a secondary source of error and could be overcome by using improved allometric equations.

  6. Natural resource management in a protected area of the Indian Himalayas: a modeling approach for anthropogenic interactions on ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nautiyal, Sunil; Kaechele, Harald

    2009-06-01

    The concept of ecosystem conservation as a broad theme came into existence during the 1970s under the Man and Biosphere Programme (MAB) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The Indian Government followed this approach and chose the method to segregate the landscape for conservation of the ecosystem as well as for the development of the local economy and its people. We have examined the effect of this policy and concurrently developed a theoretical modeling approach to understand how human behavior is changing under shifting political, socioeconomic and environmental conditions. A specific focus has been on how the landscape is changing in the mountains of the Indian Himalayan region where about 10% of the total geographical area is converted into protected landscape for conservation of biodiversity. For local people living in the Himalayan mountains in India, agriculture is the main land use activity and is strongly linked to the forests in providing sustainability. There are several branches in the rural ecosystems where the local people's economy was centered. These include agriculture, animal husbandry, medicinal and aromatic plants cultivation, forest resource collection, tourism and other occupations. The greatest proportion of the population was engaged in the agriculture sector, whose contribution is high in the rural economy (61%); followed by animal husbandry (19%), forest resource collection for economic gain (18%), and medicinal and aromatic plants cultivation (1.5%). However, three decades ago the animal husbandry branch of the rural ecosystem was contributing the maximum share towards rural household income (40%) followed by tourism (35.2%), and lastly agriculture (14%). The desire of farmers to secure the optimum output from agricultural land use has resulted in an increase for resource collection from the forests. The people's perception (n = 1,648) regarding overall changes occurring in the region was

  7. Elk migration patterns and human activity influence wolf habitat use in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Abigail; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Middleton, Arthur D.; Jimenez, Mike; McWhirter, Douglas; Barber, Jarrett; Gerow, Ken

    2012-01-01

    Identifying the ecological dynamics underlying human–wildlife conflicts is important for the management and conservation of wildlife populations. In landscapes still occupied by large carnivores, many ungulate prey species migrate seasonally, yet little empirical research has explored the relationship between carnivore distribution and ungulate migration strategy. In this study, we evaluate the influence of elk (Cervus elaphus) distribution and other landscape features on wolf (Canis lupus) habitat use in an area of chronic wolf–livestock conflict in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA. Using three years of fine-scale wolf (n = 14) and elk (n = 81) movement data, we compared the seasonal habitat use of wolves in an area dominated by migratory elk with that of wolves in an adjacent area dominated by resident elk. Most migratory elk vacate the associated winter wolf territories each summer via a 40–60 km migration, whereas resident elk remain accessible to wolves year-round. We used a generalized linear model to compare the relative probability of wolf use as a function of GIS-based habitat covariates in the migratory and resident elk areas. Although wolves in both areas used elk-rich habitat all year, elk density in summer had a weaker influence on the habitat use of wolves in the migratory elk area than the resident elk area. Wolves employed a number of alternative strategies to cope with the departure of migratory elk. Wolves in the two areas also differed in their disposition toward roads. In winter, wolves in the migratory elk area used habitat close to roads, while wolves in the resident elk area avoided roads. In summer, wolves in the migratory elk area were indifferent to roads, while wolves in resident elk areas strongly avoided roads, presumably due to the location of dens and summering elk combined with different traffic levels. Study results can help wildlife managers to anticipate the movements and establishment of wolf packs as they expand into

  8. Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) ecological model documentation volume 1: Estuarine prey fish biomass availability v1.0.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romañach, Stephanie S.; Conzelmann, Craig; Daugherty, Adam; Lorenz, Jerome L.; Hunnicutt, Christina; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2011-01-01

    Estuarine fish serve as an important prey base in the Greater Everglades ecosystem for key fauna such as wading birds, crocodiles, alligators, and piscivorous fishes. Human-made changes to freshwater flow across the Greater Everglades have resulted in less freshwater flow into the fringing estuaries and coasts. These changes in freshwater input have altered salinity patterns and negatively affected primary production of the estuarine fish prey base. Planned restoration projects should affect salinity and water depth both spatially and temporally and result in an increase in appropriate water conditions in areas occupied by estuarine fish. To assist in restoration planning, an ecological model of estuarine prey fish biomass availability was developed as an evaluation tool to aid in the determination of acceptable ranges of salinity and water depth. Comparisons of model output to field data indicate that the model accurately predicts prey biomass in the estuarine regions of the model domain. This model can be used to compare alternative restoration plans and select those that provide suitable conditions.

  9. WETSYS, a dynamic system model to assess trade-off between wetland ecosystem services at local level

    OpenAIRE

    Morardet, S.; Masiyandima, M.; Vasilishina, O.

    2012-01-01

    This report presents an integrated dynamic simulation model that represents wetland functioning. The model can be used for analysing trade-offs between the provision of ecosystem services and ecosystem integrity and resulting land use changes in the Ga-Mampa wetland in the Limpopo basin in South Africa. The purpose of the analysis is to generate knowledge that can assist decision-makers and local communities in managing wetland ecosystems in a sustainable manner. The model was developed using...

  10. Multi-scale observation and cross-scale mechanistic modeling on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO; Mingkui; YU; Guirui; LIU; Jiyuan; LI; Kerang

    2005-01-01

    To predict global climate change and to implement the Kyoto Protocol for stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations require quantifying spatio-temporal variations in the terrestrial carbon sink accurately. During the past decade multi-scale ecological experiment and observation networks have been established using various new technologies (e.g. controlled environmental facilities, eddy covariance techniques and quantitative remote sensing), and have obtained a large amount of data about terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. However, uncertainties in the magnitude and spatio-temporal variations of the terrestrial carbon sink and in understanding the underlying mechanisms have not been reduced significantly. One of the major reasons is that the observations and experiments were conducted at individual scales independently, but it is the interactions of factors and processes at different scales that determine the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon sink. Since experiments and observations are always conducted at specific scales, to understand cross-scale interactions requires mechanistic analysis that is best to be achieved by mechanistic modeling. However, mechanistic ecosystem models are mainly based on data from single-scale experiments and observations and hence have no capacity to simulate mechanistic cross-scale interconnection and interactions of ecosystem processes. New-generation mechanistic ecosystem models based on new ecological theoretical framework are needed to quantify the mechanisms from micro-level fast eco-physiological responses to macro-level slow acclimation in the pattern and structure in disturbed ecosystems. Multi-scale data-model fusion is a recently emerging approach to assimilate multi-scale observational data into mechanistic, dynamic modeling, in which the structure and parameters of mechanistic models for simulating cross-scale interactions are optimized using multi-scale observational data. The models are validated and

  11. Soil and sediments micromorphology: reconstruction of palaeoenvironments, anthropogenic processes, or more recent human impact on ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gérard, Martine; Trombino, Luca; Stoops, Georges

    2014-05-01

    Soils and sediments registered the environmental changes in time and space, but also display components inherited from human activities, both in archaeological and in modern times. Micromorphological investigations carried out on undisturbed samples of soil and sediments by microscopic and ultramicroscopic techniques, correlated with mineralogy, geochemistry or biology, allow us to interpret the processes behind the formation of regoliths, sediments and anthropogenic deposits, from which a relative chronology, specific environmental conditions and/or extent of human impact may be deduced. The traditional optical microscopy observations, carried on the thin section groundmass and pedofeatures, provide clues on the different processes behind soils and sediments genesis (weathering, supergene, low T hydrothermal, anthropogenic) and their impact on ecosystems or on palaeoenvironments. In more recent times, the improvements in electron microscope imaging technology permit to make detailed observations up to the nanoscale, opening a new domain of observations to micromorphologists, both as regard of the micromass and of the thinner pedofeatures. Moreover, the optimisation of the microgeochemical mapping techniques, with spatially resolved chemical, isotopic or mineralogical analyses, is another powerful tool to gain insight in chemical migration fronts: the limit of the original rock fabric disappearance may be bypassed. In order to illustrate micromorphological researches in natural and man-influenced ecosystems, and to combine researches at different scales, several optical and electronic images of soils and sediments groundmass, associated to their microgeochemical characteristics will be presented, with selected examples taken from the climatic record of paleosols, the impact of hydrothermal alteration on saprolites, the neo-formation of minerals related to weathering process evolution, the protosoil formation in natural and human waste deposits, and the forensic

  12. Nutrient supply and mercury dynamics in marine ecosystems: a conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Charles T; Chen, Celia Y; Hammerschmidt, Chad R; Mason, Robert P; Gilmour, Cynthia C; Sunderland, Elsie M; Greenfield, Ben K; Buckman, Kate L; Lamborg, Carl H

    2012-11-01

    There is increasing interest and concern over the impacts of mercury (Hg) inputs to marine ecosystems. One of the challenges in assessing these effects is that the cycling and trophic transfer of Hg are strongly linked to other contaminants and disturbances. In addition to Hg, a major problem facing coastal waters is the impacts of elevated nutrient, particularly nitrogen (N), inputs. Increases in nutrient loading alter coastal ecosystems in ways that should change the transport, transformations and fate of Hg, including increases in fixation of organic carbon and deposition to sediments, decreases in the redox status of sediments and changes in fish habitat. In this paper we present a conceptual model which suggests that increases in loading of reactive N to marine ecosystems might alter Hg dynamics, decreasing bioavailabilty and trophic transfer. This conceptual model is most applicable to coastal waters, but may also be relevant to the pelagic ocean. We present information from case studies that both support and challenge this conceptual model, including marine observations across a nutrient gradient; results of a nutrient-trophic transfer Hg model for pelagic and coastal ecosystems; observations of Hg species, and nutrients from coastal sediments in the northeastern U.S.; and an analysis of fish Hg concentrations in estuaries under different nutrient loadings. These case studies suggest that changes in nutrient loading can impact Hg dynamics in coastal and open ocean ecosystems. Unfortunately none of the case studies is comprehensive; each only addresses a portion of the conceptual model and has limitations. Nevertheless, our conceptual model has important management implications. Many estuaries near developed areas are impaired due to elevated nutrient inputs. Widespread efforts are underway to control N loading and restore coastal ecosystem function. An unintended consequence of nutrient control measures could be to exacerbate problems associated with Hg

  13. Towards Integration of Ecosystem and Human Health: A Novel Conceptual Framework to Operationalise Ecological Public Health and to Incorporate Distal and Proximal Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, S.; Fleming, L. E.; Beck, S.; Austen, M.; Morris, G.; White, M.; Taylor, T. J.; Orr, N.; Osborne, N. J.; Depledge, M.

    2014-12-01

    Conceptual models for problem framing in environmental (EIA) and health impact assessment (HIA) share similar concepts, but differ in their scientific or policy focus, methodologies and underlying causal chains, and the degree of complexity and scope. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework used by the European Environment Agency, the OECD and others and the Integrated Science for Society and the Environment (ISSE) frameworks are widely applied in policy appraisal and impact assessments. While DPSIR is applied across different policy domains, the ISSE framework is used in Ecosystem Services assessments. The modified Driver-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) model extends DPSIR by separating exposure from effect, adding context as a modifier of effect, and susceptibility to exposures due to socio-economic, demographic or other determinants. While continuously evolving, the application of conceptual frameworks in policy appraisals mainly occurs within established discipline boundaries. However, drivers and environmental states, as well as policy measures and actions, affect both human and ecosystem receptors. Furthermore, unintended consequences of policy actions are seldom constrained within discipline or policy silos. Thus, an integrated conceptual model is needed, accounting for the full causal chain affecting human and ecosystem health in any assessment. We propose a novel model integrating HIA methods and ecosystem services in an attempt to operationalise the emerging concept of "Ecological Public Health." The conceptual approach of the ecosystem-enriched DPSEEA model ("eDPSEEA") has stimulated wide-spread debates and feedback. We will present eDPSEEA as a stakeholder engagement process and a conceptual model, using illustrative case studies of climate change as a starting point, not a complete solution, for the integration of human and ecosystem health impact assessment as a key challenge in a rapidly changing world. Rayner G and

  14. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

  15. The potential role of mass balance models for the management of upwelling ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jarre, Astrid

    1998-01-01

    Upwelling ecosystems are productive fishing grounds, contributing >30% to the world's catch of marine fish. A set of seven trophic mass balance models of productive subsystems of the four largest upwelling areas is used to demonstrate key features of the modeling process and the analysis...... set of species interactions, and its impact can thus be readily compared to that of other piscivores in the ecosystem. This approach consequently allows us to assess the ecological sustainability of a fishery. It therefore addresses the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries recently published...

  16. Grizzly bear-human conflicts in the Yellowstone Ecosystem, 1992-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunther, K.A.; Haroldson, M.A.; Cain, S.L.; Copeland, J.; Frey, K.; Schwartz, C.C.

    2004-01-01

    For many years, the primary strategy for managing grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) that came into conflict with humans in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) was to capture and translocate the offending bears away from conflict sites. Translocation usually only temporarily alleviated the problems and most often did not result in long-term solutions. Wildlife managers needed to be able to predict the causes, types, locations, and trends of conflicts to more efficiently allocate resources for pro-active rather than reactive management actions. To address this need, we recorded all grizzly bear-human conflicts reported in the GYE during 1992-2000. We analyzed trends in conflicts over time (increasing or decreasing), geographic location on macro- (inside or outside of the designated Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone [YGBRZ]) and micro- (geographic location) scales, land ownership (public or private), and relationship to the seasonal availability of bear foods. We recorded 995 grizzly bear-human conflicts in the GYE. Fifty-three percent of the conflicts occurred outside and 47% inside the YGBRZ boundary. Fifty-nine percent of the conflicts occurred on public and 41% on private land. Incidents of bears damaging property and obtaining anthropogenic foods were inversely correlated to the abundance of naturally occurring bear foods. Livestock depredations occurred independent of the availability of bear foods. To further aid in prioritizing management strategies to reduce conflicts, we also analyzed conflicts in relation to subsequent human-caused grizzly bear mortality. There were 74 human-caused grizzly bear mortalities during the study, primarily from killing bears in defense of life and property (43%) and management removal of bears involved in bear-human conflicts (28%). Other sources of human-caused mortality included illegal kills, electrocution by downed power-lines, mistaken identification by American black bear (Ursus americanus) hunters, and vehicle strikes

  17. Evaluating taboo trade-offs in ecosystems services and human well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daw, Tim M; Coulthard, Sarah; Cheung, William W L; Brown, Katrina; Abunge, Caroline; Galafassi, Diego; Peterson, Garry D; McClanahan, Tim R; Omukoto, Johnstone O; Munyi, Lydiah

    2015-06-02

    Managing ecosystems for multiple ecosystem services and balancing the well-being of diverse stakeholders involves different kinds of trade-offs. Often trade-offs involve noneconomic and difficult-to-evaluate values, such as cultural identity, employment, the well-being of poor people, or particular species or ecosystem structures. Although trade-offs need to be considered for successful environmental management, they are often overlooked in favor of win-wins. Management and policy decisions demand approaches that can explicitly acknowledge and evaluate diverse trade-offs. We identified a diversity of apparent trade-offs in a small-scale tropical fishery when ecological simulations were integrated with participatory assessments of social-ecological system structure and stakeholders' well-being. Despite an apparent win-win between conservation and profitability at the aggregate scale, food production, employment, and well-being of marginalized stakeholders were differentially influenced by management decisions leading to trade-offs. Some of these trade-offs were suggested to be "taboo" trade-offs between morally incommensurable values, such as between profits and the well-being of marginalized women. These were not previously recognized as management issues. Stakeholders explored and deliberated over trade-offs supported by an interactive "toy model" representing key system trade-offs, alongside qualitative narrative scenarios of the future. The concept of taboo trade-offs suggests that psychological bias and social sensitivity may exclude key issues from decision making, which can result in policies that are difficult to implement. Our participatory modeling and scenarios approach has the potential to increase awareness of such trade-offs, promote discussion of what is acceptable, and potentially identify and reduce obstacles to management compliance.

  18. Assessing the Relationship Between Human Well-being and Ecosystem Services: A Review of Frameworks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Agarwala

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the most impoverished populations, we critically review and synthesise key themes from dominant frameworks for assessing the relationship between well-being and ecosystem services in developing countries. This requires a differentiated approach to conceptualising well-being that appropriately reflects the perspectives of the poorest-those most directly dependent on ecosystem services, and their vulnerability to external and policy-driven environmental change. The frameworks analysed draw upon environmental sciences, economics, psychology, sociology, and anthropology, and were selected on the basis of their demonstrated or potential ability to illustrate the relationship between environmental change and human well-being, as well as their prevalence in real world applications. Thus, the synthesis offered here is informed by the various theoretical, methodological, and hermeneutical contributions from each field to the notion of well-being. The review highlights several key dimensions that should be considered by those interested in understanding and assessing the impact of environmental change on the well-being of the world′s poorest people: the importance of interdisciplinary consideration of well-being, the need for frameworks that integrate subjective and objective aspects of well-being, and the central importance of context and relational aspects of well-being. The review is of particular interest to those engaged in the post-2015 development agenda.

  19. Accounting for natural resources and environmental sustainability: linking ecosystem services to human well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Stephen J; Hayes, Sharon E; Yoskowitz, David; Smith, Lisa M; Summers, J Kevin; Russell, Marc; Benson, William H

    2010-03-01

    One of society's greatest challenges is to sustain natural resources while promoting economic growth and quality of life. In the face of this challenge, society must measure the effectiveness of programs established to safeguard the environment. The impetus for demonstrating positive results from government-sponsored research and regulation in the United States comes from Congress (General Accountability Office; GAO) and the Executive Branch (Office of Management and Budget; OMB). The message is: regulatory and research programs must demonstrate outcomes that justify their costs. Although the concept is simple, it is a complex problem to demonstrate that environmental research, policies, and regulations cause measurable changes in environmental quality. Even where changes in environmental quality can be tracked reliably, the connections between government actions and environmental outcomes seldom are direct or straightforward. In this article, we describe emerging efforts (with emphasis on the role of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; EPA) to frame and measure environmental outcomes in terms of ecosystem services and values-societally and ecologically meaningful metrics for gauging how well we manage environmental resources. As examples of accounting for outcomes and values, we present a novel, low-cost method for determining relative values of multiple ecosystem services, and describe emerging research on indicators of human well-being.

  20. A coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model for 1-D and 3-D applications in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jin Meibing; Clara Deal; WANG Jia

    2008-01-01

    Primary production in the Bering and Chukchi Seas is strongly influenced by the annual cycle of sea ice. Here pelagic and sea ice algal ecosystems coexist and interact with each other. Ecosystem modeling of sea ice associated phytoplankton blooms has been understudied compared to open water ecosystem model applications.This study introduces a general coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model with equations and parameters for 1-D and 3-D applications that is based on 1-D coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model development in the landfast ice in the Chukchi Sea and marginal ice zone of Bering Sea. The biological model includes both pelagic and sea ice algal habitats with 10 compartments: three phytoplankton (pelagic diatom, flagellates and ice algae: D, F, and Ai), three zooplankton (copepods, large zooplankton, and microzooplankton: ZS, ZL, ZP), three nutrients (nitrate + nitrite, ammonium, silicon:NO3, NH4, Si) and detritus (Det). The coupling of the biological models with physical ocean models is straightforward with just the addition of the advection and diffusion terms to the ecosystem model. The coupling with a multi-category sea ice model requires the same calculation of the sea ice ecosystem model in each ice thickness category and the redistribution between categories caused by both dynamic and thermodynamic forcing as in the physical model. Phytoplankton and ice algal self-shading effect is the sole feedback from the ecosystem model to the physical model.

  1. A spatial socio-ecosystem approach to analyse human-environment interactions on climate change adaptation for water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giupponi, Carlo; Mojtahed, Vahid

    2017-04-01

    Global climate and socio-economic drivers determine the future patterns of the allocation and the trade of resources and commodities in all markets. The agricultural sector is an emblematic case in which natural (e.g. climate), social (e.g. demography) and economic (e.g. the market) drivers of change interact, determining the evolution of social and ecological systems (or simply socio-ecosystems; SES) over time. In order to analyse the dynamics and possible future evolutions of SES, the combination of local complex systems and global drivers and trends require the development of multiscale approaches. At global level, climatic general circulation models (CGM) and computable general equilibrium or partial equilibrium models have been used for many years to explore the effects of global trends and generate future climate and socio-economic scenarios. Al local level, the inherent complexity of SESs and their spatial and temporal variabilities require different modelling approaches of physical/environmental sub-systems (e.g. field scale crop modelling, GIS-based models, etc.) and of human agency decision makers (e.g. agent based models). Global and local models have different assumption, limitations, constrains, etc., but in some cases integration is possible and several attempts are in progress to couple different models within the so-called Integrated Assessment Models. This work explores an innovative proposal to integrate the global and local approaches, where agent-based models (ABM) are used to simulate spatial (i.e. grid-based) and temporal dynamics of land and water resource use spatial and temporal dynamics, under the effect of global drivers. We focus in particular on how global change may affect land-use allocation at the local to regional level, under the influence of limited natural resources, land and water in particular. We specifically explore how constrains and competition for natural resources may induce non-linearities and discontinuities in socio-ecosystems

  2. The climate responses of tropical and boreal ecosystems with an improved land surface model (JULES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Anna; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Cox, Peter; Wiltshire, Andy; Jones, Chris

    2016-04-01

    The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land surface of the next generation UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). Recently, JULES was updated with new plant functional types and physiology based on a global plant trait database. These developments improved the simulation of terrestrial gross and net primary productivity on local and global scales, and enabled a more realistic representation of the global distribution of vegetation. In this study, we explore the present-day distribution of ecosystems and their vulnerability to climate change in JULES with these improvements, focusing on tropical and boreal ecosystems. Changes to these ecosystems will have implications for biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to climate change and need to be understood. First, we examine the simulated and observed rainforest-savannah boundary, which is strongly related to annual precipitation and the maximum climatological water deficit. Second, we assess the length of growing season and biomass stored in boreal ecosystems, where 20th century warming has likely extended the growing season. In each case, we first evaluate the ability of JULES to capture observed climate-vegetation relationships and trends. Finally, we run JULES to 2100 using climate data from 3 models and 2 RCP scenarios, and examine potential 21st century changes to these ecosystems. For example, do the tropical forests shrink in response to changes in tropical rainfall seasonality? And, how does the composition of boreal ecosystems change in response to climate warming? Given the potential for climate feedbacks and the inherent value in these ecosystems, it is essential to assess their responses to a range of climate change scenarios.

  3. Modeling Study of Seasonal Variation of the Pelagic-Benthic Ecosystem Characteristics of the Bohai Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Based on experiment data of the Sino-German comprehensive investigations in the Bohai Sea in 1998 and 1999, a simple coupled pelagic-benthic ecosystem multi-box model is used to simulate the ecosystem seasonal variation. The pelagic sub-model consists of seven state variables: phytoplankton, zooplankton, TIN, TIP, DOC, POC and dissolved oxygen (DO). The benthic sub-model includes macro-benthos, meiobenthos, bacteria, detritus, TIN and TIP in the sediment. Besides the effects of solar radiation, water temperature and the nutrient from sea bottom exudation, land-based inputs are considered. The impact of the advection terms between the boxes is also considered. Meanwhile, the effects of the microbial-loop are introduced with a simple parameterization. The seasonal variations and the horizontal distributions of the ecosystem state variables of the Bohai Sea are simulated. Compared with the observations, the results of the multi-box model are reasonable. The modeled results show that about 13% of the photosynthesis primary production goes to the main food loop, 20% transfers to the benthic domain, 44% is consumed by the respiration of phytoplankton, and the rest goes to DOC. Model results also show the importance of the microbial food loop in the ecosystem of the Bohai Sea, and its contribution to the annual zooplankton production can be 60% - 64%.

  4. Ecosystem model of the western Wadden Sea: A bridge between science and management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindeboom, H. J.; van Raaphorst, W.; Ridderinkhof, H.; van der Veer, H. W.

    1989-09-01

    This paper describes the construction, validation and application of a mathematical ecosystem model of the western Wadden Sea. This model is based upon the Ems-Dollard ecosystem model, but also includes a two-dimensional transport submodel, a benthic and epibenthic sublitoral submodel and nutrient regeneration. In 1986, an extensive field programme was executed to collect data for model validation. Apart from the subtidal processes the validation indicates that the model simulates the different state variables reasonably well. The applicability of the model for management purposes was tested in four case studies concerning: dredging activities, eutrophication, commercial mussel cultrue and oil spills and other calamities. It is concluded that the western Wadden Sea model in general is a useful tool in evaluating the impact of certain anthropogenic activities in the area.

  5. Demographic noise and resilience in a semi-arid ecosystem model

    CERN Document Server

    Realpe-Gomez, John; Galla, Tobias; McKane, Alan J; Rietkerk, Max

    2013-01-01

    The scarcity of water characterizing drylands forces vegetation to adopt appropriate survival strategies. Some of these generate water-vegetation feedback mechanisms that can lead to spatial self-organisation of vegetation. To date these phenomena have mostly been studied with models representing plants by a density of biomass, varying continuously in time and space. Such models disregard the discrete nature of plant individuals and their intrinsically stochastic behaviour. These features give rise to demographic noise, which can influence the qualitative dynamics of ecosystem models. In the present work we explore the effects of demographic noise on the resilience of a model semi-arid ecosystem. We introduce a spatial stochastic eco-hydrological hybrid model in which plants are modelled as discrete entities subject to stochastic dynamical rules, while the dynamics of surface and soil water are described by continuous variables. The model has a deterministic approximation very similar to previous continuous m...

  6. Fuzzy rule-based models for decision support in ecosystem management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adriaenssens, Veronique; De Baets, Bernard; Goethals, Peter L M; De Pauw, Niels

    2004-02-05

    To facilitate decision support in the ecosystem management, ecological expertise and site-specific data need to be integrated. Fuzzy logic can deal with highly variable, linguistic, vague and uncertain data or knowledge and, therefore, has the ability to allow for a logical, reliable and transparent information stream from data collection down to data usage in decision-making. Several environmental applications already implicate the use of fuzzy logic. Most of these applications have been set up by trial and error and are mainly limited to the domain of environmental assessment. In this article, applications of fuzzy logic for decision support in ecosystem management are reviewed and assessed, with an emphasis on rule-based models. In particular, the identification, optimisation, validation, the interpretability and uncertainty aspects of fuzzy rule-based models for decision support in ecosystem management are discussed.

  7. Scorched Earth: how will changes in the strength of the vegetation sink to ozone deposition affect human health and ecosystems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emberson, L. D.; Kitwiroon, N.; Beevers, S.; Büker, P.; Cinderby, S.

    2013-07-01

    This study investigates the effect of ozone (O3) deposition on ground level O3 concentrations and subsequent human health and ecosystem risk under hot summer "heat wave" type meteorological events. Under such conditions, extended drought can effectively "turn off" the O3 vegetation sink leading to a substantial increase in ground level O3 concentrations. Two models that have been used for human health (the CMAQ chemical transport model) and ecosystem (the DO3SE O3 deposition model) risk assessment are combined to provide a powerful policy tool capable of novel integrated assessments of O3 risk using methods endorsed by the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. This study investigates 2006, a particularly hot and dry year during which a heat wave occurred over the summer across much of the UK and Europe. To understand the influence of variable O3 dry deposition three different simulations were investigated during June and July: (i) actual conditions in 2006, (ii) conditions that assume a perfect vegetation sink for O3 deposition and (iii) conditions that assume an extended drought period that reduces the vegetation sink to a minimum. The risks of O3 to human health, assessed by estimating the number of days during which running 8 h mean O3 concentrations exceeded 100 μg m-3, show that on average across the UK, there is a difference of 16 days exceedance of the threshold between the perfect sink and drought conditions. These average results hide local variation with exceedances between these two scenarios reaching as high as 20 days in the East Midlands and eastern UK. Estimates of acute exposure effects show that O3 removed from the atmosphere through dry deposition during the June and July period would have been responsible for approximately 460 premature deaths. Conversely, reduced O3 dry deposition will decrease the amount of O3 taken up by vegetation and, according to flux-based assessments of vegetation damage, will lead to a reduction in

  8. Scorched Earth: how will changes in the strength of the vegetation sink to ozone deposition affect human health and ecosystems?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. D. Emberson

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effect of ozone (O3 deposition on ground level O3 concentrations and subsequent human health and ecosystem risk under hot summer "heat wave" type meteorological events. Under such conditions, extended drought can effectively "turn off" the O3 vegetation sink leading to a substantial increase in ground level O3 concentrations. Two models that have been used for human health (the CMAQ chemical transport model and ecosystem (the DO3SE O3 deposition model risk assessment are combined to provide a powerful policy tool capable of novel integrated assessments of O3 risk using methods endorsed by the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. This study investigates 2006, a particularly hot and dry year during which a heat wave occurred over the summer across much of the UK and Europe. To understand the influence of variable O3 dry deposition three different simulations were investigated during June and July: (i actual conditions in 2006, (ii conditions that assume a perfect vegetation sink for O3 deposition and (iii conditions that assume an extended drought period that reduces the vegetation sink to a minimum. The risks of O3 to human health, assessed by estimating the number of days during which running 8 h mean O3 concentrations exceeded 100 μg m−3, show that on average across the UK, there is a difference of 16 days exceedance of the threshold between the perfect sink and drought conditions. These average results hide local variation with exceedances between these two scenarios reaching as high as 20 days in the East Midlands and eastern UK. Estimates of acute exposure effects show that O3 removed from the atmosphere through dry deposition during the June and July period would have been responsible for approximately 460 premature deaths. Conversely, reduced O3 dry deposition will decrease the amount of O3 taken up by vegetation and, according to flux-based assessments of vegetation damage, will lead

  9. A general one-dimensional vertical ecosystem model of Lake Shira (Russia, Khakasia): description, parametrization and analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prokopkin, I.; Mooij, W.M.; Janse, J.H.; Degermendzhy, A.G.

    2010-01-01

    A one-dimensional ecological model of the meromictic brackish Lake Shira (Russia, Khakasia) was developed. The model incorporates state-of-the-art knowledge about the functioning of the lake ecosystem using the most recent field observations and ideas from PCLake, a general ecosystem model of shallo

  10. Computer modelling for ecosystem service assessment: Chapter 4.4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunford, Robert; Harrison, Paula; Bagstad, Kenneth J.

    2017-01-01

    Computer models are simplified representations of the environment that allow biophysical, ecological, and/or socio-economic characteristics to be quantified and explored. Modelling approaches differ from mapping approaches (Chapter 5) as (i) they are not forcibly spatial (although many models do produce spatial outputs); (ii) they focus on understanding and quantifying the interactions between different components of social and/or environmental systems and (iii)

  11. Development and application of an interactive climate-ecosystem model system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Ming; D. Pollard

    2003-01-01

    A regional climate-ecosystem model system is developed in this study. It overcomes the weakness in traditional one-way coupling models and enables detailed description of interactive process between climate and natural ecosystem. It is applied to interaction study between monsoon climate and ecosystem in East Asia, with emphasis on future climate and ecosystem change scenario forced by doubled CO2. The climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO2 in Jianghuai and the Yangzi River valley, but it becomes warmer and drier in inland areas of northern and northwestern China. The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. Northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. The strongest vegetation response to climate change occurs in northern China and the weakest in southern China. Vegetation feedbacks intensify warming and reduce drying due to increased CO2 during summer in northern China. Generally, vegetation-climate interactions are much stronger in northern China than in southern China.

  12. An eco-hydrological modeling framework for assessing trade-offs among ecosystem services in response to alternative land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mckane, R.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Brookes, A.; Djang, K.; Stieglitz, M.; Pan, F.; Bolte, J.; Papenfus, M.; Burdick, C.

    2012-12-01

    Scientists, policymakers, community planners and others have discussed ecosystem services for decades, however, society is still in the early stages of developing methodologies to quantify and value the services that ecosystems provide. For example, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program to develop such methodologies, so that natural capital can be better accounted for in decisions that affect the supply of the ecosystem goods and services upon which human well-being depends. Essential to this goal are highly integrated models that can be used to define policy and management strategies for entire ecosystems, not simply individual components of the ecosystem. We developed the VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments) eco-hydrologic modeling framework to help address this emerging risk assessment objective. Here we describe a proof-of-concept application of VELMA to the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, a forested 64 km2 basin and Long Term Ecological Research site in the western Cascade Range of Oregon, USA. VELMA is a spatially-distributed eco-hydrologic model that links a land surface hydrologic model with a terrestrial biogeochemistry model for simulating the integrated responses of vegetation, soil, and water resources to interacting stressors. We used the model to simulate the effects of three different land use scenarios (100% old-growth, 100% clearcut harvest, and present-day land cover consisting of 45% old-growth and 55% harvested) on trade-offs among five ecosystem services: timber production, carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas regulation, water quantity, and water quality. Compared to the old-growth simulation, over a 60-yr period the clearcut simulation reduced total ecosystem carbon stocks (-40%), and initially increased total stream discharge (+28%), stream nitrogen export (>300%), and total CO2 and N2O radiative forcing (>200%). The simulation for

  13. Evaluating taboo trade-offs in ecosystems services and human well-being

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulthard, Sarah; Cheung, William W. L.; Brown, Katrina; Abunge, Caroline; Galafassi, Diego; Peterson, Garry D.; McClanahan, Tim R.; Omukoto, Johnstone O.; Munyi, Lydiah

    2015-01-01

    Managing ecosystems for multiple ecosystem services and balancing the well-being of diverse stakeholders involves different kinds of trade-offs. Often trade-offs involve noneconomic and difficult-to-evaluate values, such as cultural identity, employment, the well-being of poor people, or particular species or ecosystem structures. Although trade-offs need to be considered for successful environmental management, they are often overlooked in favor of win-wins. Management and policy decisions demand approaches that can explicitly acknowledge and evaluate diverse trade-offs. We identified a diversity of apparent trade-offs in a small-scale tropical fishery when ecological simulations were integrated with participatory assessments of social–ecological system structure and stakeholders’ well-being. Despite an apparent win-win between conservation and profitability at the aggregate scale, food production, employment, and well-being of marginalized stakeholders were differentially influenced by management decisions leading to trade-offs. Some of these trade-offs were suggested to be “taboo” trade-offs between morally incommensurable values, such as between profits and the well-being of marginalized women. These were not previously recognized as management issues. Stakeholders explored and deliberated over trade-offs supported by an interactive “toy model” representing key system trade-offs, alongside qualitative narrative scenarios of the future. The concept of taboo trade-offs suggests that psychological bias and social sensitivity may exclude key issues from decision making, which can result in policies that are difficult to implement. Our participatory modeling and scenarios approach has the potential to increase awareness of such trade-offs, promote discussion of what is acceptable, and potentially identify and reduce obstacles to management compliance. PMID:26038547

  14. Ecosystem Services Modeling Infrastructures: Simile/MIMES (Gund Institute) and FRAMES/3MRA (US EPA) Integrated Modeling for Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Ecological Research Program (ERP) of the EPA Office of Research and Development has the vision of a comprehensive theory and practice for characterizing, quantifying, and valuing ecosystem services and their relationship to human well-being for environmental decision making. ...

  15. Modeling human color categorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broek, Egon; Schouten, Th.E.; Kisters, P.M.F.

    2008-01-01

    A unique color space segmentation method is introduced. It is founded on features of human cognition, where 11 color categories are used in processing color. In two experiments, human subjects were asked to categorize color stimuli into these 11 color categories, which resulted in markers for a Colo

  16. Modeling human color categorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broek, Egon; Schouten, Th.E.; Kisters, P.M.F.

    A unique color space segmentation method is introduced. It is founded on features of human cognition, where 11 color categories are used in processing color. In two experiments, human subjects were asked to categorize color stimuli into these 11 color categories, which resulted in markers for a

  17. Towards operational modeling and forecasting of the Iberian shelves ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martinho Marta-Almeida

    Full Text Available There is a growing interest on physical and biogeochemical oceanic hindcasts and forecasts from a wide range of users and businesses. In this contribution we present an operational biogeochemical forecast system for the Portuguese and Galician oceanographic regions, where atmospheric, hydrodynamic and biogeochemical variables are integrated. The ocean model ROMS, with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, is forced by the atmospheric model WRF and includes a Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus biogeochemical module (NPZD. In addition to oceanographic variables, the system predicts the concentration of nitrate, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus (mmol N m(-3. Model results are compared against radar currents and remote sensed SST and chlorophyll. Quantitative skill assessment during a summer upwelling period shows that our modelling system adequately represents the surface circulation over the shelf including the observed spatial variability and trends of temperature and chlorophyll concentration. Additionally, the skill assessment also shows some deficiencies like the overestimation of upwelling circulation and consequently, of the duration and intensity of the phytoplankton blooms. These and other departures from the observations are discussed, their origins identified and future improvements suggested. The forecast system is the first of its kind in the region and provides free online distribution of model input and output, as well as comparisons of model results with satellite imagery for qualitative operational assessment of model skill.

  18. operational modelling and forecasting of the Iberian shelves ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marta-Almeida, M.; Reboreda, R.; Rocha, C.; Dubert, J.; Nolasco, R.; Cordeiro, N.; Luna, T.; Rocha, A.; Silva, J. Lencart e.; Queiroga, H.; Peliz, A.; Ruiz-Villarreal, M.

    2012-04-01

    There is a growing interest on physical and biogeochemical oceanic hindcasts and forecasts from a wide range of users and businesses. In this contribution we present an operational biogeochemical forecast system for the Portuguese and Galician oceanographic regions, where atmospheric, hydrodynamic and biogeochemical variables are integrated. The ocean model ROMS, with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, is forced by the atmospheric model WRF and includes a NPZD biogeochemical module. In addition to oceanographic variables, the system predicts the concentration of nitrate, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus (mmolN m-3). Model results are compared against radar currents and remote sensed SST and chlorophyll. Quantitative skill assessment during a summer upwelling period shows that our modelling system adequately represents the surface circulation over the shelf including the observed spatial variability and trends of temperature and chlorophyll concentration. Additionally, the skill assessment also shows some deficiencies like the overestimation of upwelling circulation and consequently, of the duration and intensity of the phytoplankton blooms. These and other departures from the observations are discussed, their origins identified and future improvements suggested. The forecast system is the first of its kind in the region and provides free online distribution of model input and output, as well as comparisons of model results with satellite imagery for qualitative operational assessment of model skill.

  19. Fusing data and models to forecast disturbance impacts on ecosystems: past, present, and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietze, M.; Cowdery, E.; Rollinson, C.; Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Matthes, J. H.; Pourmokhtarian, A.; Viskari, T.; Serbin, S.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Raiho, A.

    2015-12-01

    Disturbance plays a major role in shaping ecosystems, but their occurrence is stochastic and their representation in ecosystem models is widely considered to be inadequate. Both these factors place significant limits on our ability to forecast ecosystems in a changing world. Herein we address three major challenges in disturbance modeling, focusing on recent advances and emerging opportunities. First, we assess the ability of models to capture emergent observational patterns and experimental manipulations using a range of data types and across a wide range of time scales, from sub-annual (eddy flux) to interannual (inventory, tree rings) to centennial (fossil pollen and charcoal, settlement era surveys). Second, we present advances in how models can represent specific disturbance processes (insects and pathogens, non-harvest forest management) and the scaling of disturbance processes in regional- to global-scale models. Third, we address the question of how to assimilate multiple sources of disturbance data across multiple spatial and temporal scales to constrain the pools and fluxes within models. In particular, because disturbances are stochastic we want to update model projections based on field and remotely-sensed data. However, rather than driving models with a particular external data that is taken as 'truth', we explore examples of how to update models using multiple data sources while accounting for uncertainties in both the model and data. Finally, we discuss the implications of these advances and the opportunities they present for near-term carbon monitoring and long-term carbon cycle projections.

  20. Phosphorus and soil development: does the Walker and Syers model apply to semiarid ecosystems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selmants, Paul C; Hart, Stephen C

    2010-02-01

    The Walker and Syers model of phosphorus (P) transformations during pedogenesis is widely accepted for the development of humid ecosystems, but long-term P dynamics of more arid ecosystems remain poorly understood. We tested the Walker and Syers model in semiarid piñon-juniper woodlands by measuring soil P fractions under tree canopies and in intercanopy spaces along a well-constrained, approximately 3000 ka (1 ka = 1000 years) volcanic substrate age gradient in northern Arizona, USA. The various pools of soil P behaved largely as predicted; total soil P and primary mineral P declined consistently with substrate age, labile inorganic P increased early in soil development and then declined at later stages, and organic phosphorus increased consistently across the chronosequence. Within each site, soils under tree canopies tended to have higher concentrations of labile and intermediately available P fractions compared to intercanopy soils. However, the degree of spatial heterogeneity conferred by tree islands was moderated by the stage of soil development. In contrast, tree islands had no influence on within-site distribution of more recalcitrant soil P pools, which appear to be controlled solely by the stage of pedogenesis. Coincident with declines in total P, primary mineral P, and labile inorganic P, we found that phosphatase enzyme activity increased with substrate age; a result consistent with greater ecosystem-level P demand on older, more highly weathered substrates. Our results suggest that, compared to humid climates, reduced inputs of water, energy, and acidity to semiarid ecosystems slow the rate of change in P fractions during pedogenesis, but the overall pattern remains consistent with the Walker and Syers model. Furthermore, our data imply that pedogenic change may be an important factor controlling the spatial distribution of labile P pools in semiarid ecosystems. Taken together, these data should both broaden and unify terrestrial ecosystem

  1. Using an Ecosystem Model to Evaluate Fisheries Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    climate change impacts, trophodynamics, coral reefs. Abstract—A coral .... and nutrients are the implicit energetic drivers in the model. ... the western Indian Ocean coastal region (traps, ..... lagoon fish: Effects of fishing, substrate complexity ...

  2. Semantic Model of Variability and Capabilities of IoT Applications for Embedded Software Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomlein, Matus; Grønbæk, Kaj

    2016-01-01

    have also identified a need to model their deployment topology and functionality in order to enable their seamless integration into the platform. In this paper, we draw from research in related fields and present a model of IoT applications. It is built using semantic annotations and uses semantic...... conclude that it is suitable for modeling applications in IoT software ecosystems since it is more adaptable and expressive than the alternatives....

  3. Semantic Model of Variability and Capabilities of IoT Applications for Embedded Software Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomlein, Matus; Grønbæk, Kaj

    have also identified a need to model their deployment topology and functionality in order to enable their seamless integration into the platform. In this paper, we draw from research in related fields and present a model of IoT applications. It is built using semantic annotations and uses semantic...... conclude that it is suitable for modeling applications in IoT software ecosystems since it is more adaptable and expressive than the alternatives....

  4. Ecosystem model intercomparison of under-ice and total primary production in the Arctic Ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Meibing; Popova, Ekaterina E.; Zhang, Jinlun; Ji, Rubao; Pendleton, Daniel; Varpe, Øystein; Yool, Andrew; Lee, Younjoo J.

    2016-01-01

    Previous observational studies have found increasing primary production (PP) in response to declining sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. In this study, under-ice PP was assessed based on three coupled ice-ocean-ecosystem models participating in the Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) project. All models showed good agreement with under-ice measurements of surface chlorophyll-a concentration and vertically integrated PP rates during the main under-ice production perio...

  5. Designer ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Awasthi, Ashutosh; Singh, Kripal; O'Grady, Audrey; Courtney, Ronan; Kalra, Alok; Singh, Rana Pratap; Cerda Bolinches, Artemio; Steinberger, Yosef; Patra, D.D.

    2016-01-01

    Increase in human population is accelerating the rate of land use change, biodiversity loss and habitat degradation, triggering a serious threat to life supporting ecosystem services. Existing strategies for biological conservation remain insufficient to achieve a sustainable human-nature relatio

  6. Archaeology meets marine ecology: the antiquity of maritime cultures and human impacts on marine fisheries and ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlandson, Jon M; Rick, Torben C

    2010-01-01

    Interdisciplinary study of coastal archaeological sites provides a wealth of information on the ecology and evolution of ancient marine animal populations, the structure of past marine ecosystems, and the history of human impacts on coastal fisheries. In this paper, we review recent methodological developments in the archaeology and historical ecology of coastal regions around the world. Using two case studies, we examine (a) a deep history of anthropogenic effects on the marine ecosystems of California's Channel Islands through the past 12,000 years and (b) geographic variation in the effects of human fishing on Pacific Island peoples who spread through Oceania during the late Holocene. These case studies--the first focused on hunter-gatherers, the second on maritime horticulturalists-provide evidence for shifting baselines and timelines, documenting a much deeper anthropogenic influence on many coastal ecosystems and fisheries than considered by most ecologists, conservation biologists, and fisheries managers.

  7. Archaeology Meets Marine Ecology: The Antiquity of Maritime Cultures and Human Impacts on Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlandson, Jon M.; Rick, Torben C.

    2010-01-01

    Interdisciplinary study of coastal archaeological sites provides a wealth of information on the ecology and evolution of ancient marine animal populations, the structure of past marine ecosystems, and the history of human impacts on coastal fisheries. In this paper, we review recent methodological developments in the archaeology and historical ecology of coastal regions around the world. Using two case studies, we examine (a) a deep history of anthropogenic effects on the marine ecosystems of California's Channel Islands through the past 12,000 years and (b) geographic variation in the effects of human fishing on Pacific Island peoples who spread through Oceania during the late Holocene. These case studies—the first focused on hunter-gatherers, the second on maritime horticulturalists—provide evidence for shifting baselines and timelines, documenting a much deeper anthropogenic influence on many coastal ecosystems and fisheries than considered by most ecologists, conservation biologists, and fisheries managers.

  8. The value of adding optics to ecosystem models: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fujii

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Many ecosystem models have been developed to study the ocean's biogeochemical properties, but most of these models use simple formulations to describe light penetration and spectral quality. Here, an optical model is coupled with a previously published ecosystem model that explicitly represents two phytoplankton (picoplankton and diatoms and two zooplankton functional groups, as well as multiple nutrients and detritus. Surface ocean color fields and subsurface light fields are calculated by coupling the ecosystem model with an optical model that relates biogeochemical standing stocks with inherent optical properties (absorption, scattering; this provides input to a commercially available radiative transfer model (Ecolight. We apply this bio-optical model to the equatorial Pacific upwelling region, and find the model to be capable of reproducing many measured optical properties and key biogeochemical processes in this region. Our model results suggest that non-algal particles largely contribute to the total scattering or attenuation (>50% at 660 nm but have a much smaller contribution to particulate absorption (<20% at 440 nm, while picoplankton dominate the total phytoplankton absorption (>95% at 440 nm. These results are consistent with the field observations. In order to achieve such good agreement between data and model results, however, key model parameters, for which no field data are available, have to be constrained. Sensitivity analysis of the model results to optical parameters reveals a significant role played by colored dissolved organic matter through its influence on the quantity and quality of the ambient light. Coupling explicit optics to an ecosystem model provides advantages in generating: (1 a more accurate subsurface light-field, which is important for light sensitive biogeochemical processes such as photosynthesis and photo-oxidation, (2 additional constraints on model parameters that help to reduce uncertainties in

  9. Learning and teaching ecosystem behaviour in secondary education : Systems thinking and modelling in authentic practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Westra, R.H.V.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis describes developmental research, aiming at a useful approach for modern secondary ecology education. The research question is: What are the characteristics of a valid, feasible and effective learning and teaching strategy about ecosystem behaviour using modelling and systems thinking in

  10. Modeling forest ecosystem changes resulting from surface coal mining in West Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Brown; Andrew J. Lister; Mary Ann Fajvan; Bonnie Ruefenacht; Christine Mazzarella

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this project is to assess the effects of surface coal mining on forest ecosystem disturbance and restoration in the Coal River Subbasin in southern West Virginia. Our approach is to develop disturbance impact models for this subbasin that will serve as a case study for testing the feasibility of integrating currently available GIS data layers, remote...

  11. Microbial functional diversity enhances predictive models linking environmental parameters to ecosystem properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Jeff R; Welsh, Allana; Hallin, Sara

    2015-07-01

    Microorganisms drive biogeochemical processes, but linking these processes to real changes in microbial communities under field conditions is not trivial. Here, we present a model-based approach to estimate independent contributions of microbial community shifts to ecosystem properties. The approach was tested empirically, using denitrification potential as our model process, in a spatial survey of arable land encompassing a range of edaphic conditions and two agricultural production systems. Soil nitrate was the most important single predictor of denitrification potential (the change in Akaike's information criterion, corrected for sample size, ΔAIC(c) = 20.29); however, the inclusion of biotic variables (particularly the evenness and size of denitrifier communities [ΔAIC(c) = 12.02], and the abundance of one denitrifier genotype [ΔAIC(c) = 18.04]) had a substantial effect on model precision, comparable to the inclusion of abiotic variables (biotic R2 = 0.28, abiotic R2 = 0.50, biotic + abiotic R2 = 0.76). This approach provides a valuable tool for explicitly linking microbial communities to ecosystem functioning. By making this link, we have demonstrated that including aspects of microbial community structure and diversity in biogeochemical models can improve predictions of nutrient cycling in ecosystems and enhance our understanding of ecosystem functionality.

  12. Learning and teaching ecosystem behaviour in secondary education : Systems thinking and modelling in authentic practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Westra, R.H.V.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis describes developmental research, aiming at a useful approach for modern secondary ecology education. The research question is: What are the characteristics of a valid, feasible and effective learning and teaching strategy about ecosystem behaviour using modelling and systems thinking in

  13. Building Models of Installations to Recommend Applications in IoT Software Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomlein, Matus; Grønbæk, Kaj

    2016-01-01

    integration into the platforms is a challenge. In this paper, we propose to use semantic reasoning to select and configure applications in software ecosystems. Our prototype builds a model of the installation and the user goals through several steps. It processes application descriptions created...

  14. Contribution of aboveground biomass uncertainty to bias in modeled global net ecosystem exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulter, B.; Delbart, N.; Maignan, F.; Saatchi, S. S.; Sitch, S.; Ciais, P.

    2011-12-01

    Biomass is a key ecosystem property that links biogeochemical fluxes with the accumulation of carbon. The spatial and temporal dynamics of biomass have implications for climate stability and other ecosystem services. Globally, terrestrial forest ecosystems store approximately 383 Pg C in aboveground biomass, about 45% compared to the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Model-data comparisons of aboveground biomass have so far been limited by a lack of wall-to-wall coverage, which has recently been resolved from satellite remote sensing. These recent satellite products use lidar to measure forest structure directly or have developed novel data-fusion techniques. Here, we compare biomass estimates among terrestrial carbon cycle models, and benchmark these estimates with inventory and satellite-based estimates. Using an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation model simulations from the TRENDY archive, we then use the distribution of biomass estimates to evaluate bias in net ecosystem exchange caused by uncertainty from carbon turnover. By identifying detailed model structure and parameters that are linked to carbon turnover, targeted improvements can be made to more realistically simulate aboveground biomass.

  15. Optimising the management of complex dynamic ecosystems. An ecological-economic modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hein, L.G.

    2005-01-01

    Keywords: ecological-economic modelling; ecosystem services; resource use; efficient; sustainability; wetlands, rangelands.

    Ecosyst

  16. Sensitivity analysis of a simple linear model of a savanna ecosystem at Nyslvley

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Getz, WA

    1975-12-01

    Full Text Available parameters is analysed. The results obtained from this analysis are discussed and some general statements on important structures in the Nylsvley ecosystem that emerge from the analysis of the model are made. In particular certain conclusions are drawn...

  17. Fuzzy cognitive mapping in support of integrated ecosystem assessments: Developing a shared conceptual model among stakeholders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasslides, James M; Jensen, Olaf P

    2016-01-15

    Ecosystem-based approaches, including integrated ecosystem assessments, are a popular methodology being used to holistically address management issues in social-ecological systems worldwide. In this study we utilized fuzzy logic cognitive mapping to develop conceptual models of a complex estuarine system among four stakeholder groups. The average number of categories in an individual map was not significantly different among groups, and there were no significant differences between the groups in the average complexity or density indices of the individual maps. When ordered by their complexity scores, eight categories contributed to the top four rankings of the stakeholder groups, with six of the categories shared by at least half of the groups. While non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) analysis displayed a high degree of overlap between the individual models across groups, there was also diversity within each stakeholder group. These findings suggest that while all of the stakeholders interviewed perceive the subject ecosystem as a complex series of social and ecological interconnections, there are a core set of components that are present in most of the groups' models that are crucial in managing the system towards some desired outcome. However, the variability in the connections between these core components and the rest of the categories influences the exact nature of these outcomes. Understanding the reasons behind these differences will be critical to developing a shared conceptual model that will be acceptable to all stakeholder groups and can serve as the basis for an integrated ecosystem assessment.

  18. Optimising the management of complex dynamic ecosystems. An ecological-economic modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hein, L.G.

    2005-01-01

    Keywords: ecological-economic modelling; ecosystem services; resource use; efficient; sustainability; wetlands, rangelands.

  19. Analyzing the ecosystem carbon dynamics of four European coniferous forests using a biogeochemistry model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Churkina, G.; Tenhunen, J.; Thornton, P.; Falge, E.; Elbers, J.A.; Erhard, M.; Grünwald, T.; Kowalski, A.; Rannik, Ü.; Sprinz, D.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides the first steps toward a regional-scale analysis of carbon (C) budgets. We explore the ability of the ecosystem model BIOME-BGC to estimate the daily and annual C dynamics of four European coniferous forests and shifts in these dynamics in response to changing environmental

  20. Bringing radiation protection into harmony with human life and the ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rockwell, T. [Radiation, Science and Health, Inc., Chevy Chase, MD (United States)

    2000-05-01

    A radiation protection policy that is truly in harmony with human life and the ecosystem cannot insist that radiation doses be reduced to as low as achievable regardless of the impact of such a policy on other aspects of human life and the ecosystem. This potential conflict of purposes can be approached from several directions, some of which are explored here. First, we must consider the presence of a large and variable background of natural radiation, whose health and ecological effects are virtually identical to those from human-generated radiation. To attempt to measure, account for, and reduce additional radiation sources that are far smaller than this background-indeed, far smaller than the natural variations in the background, affronts both science and common sense. Second, to base policy on extrapolation of several orders of magnitude from health effects resulting from high-level, high-dose rate, radiation is another serious departure from proper scientific practice. Third, to justify current policy as being conservative in the face of uncertainty is wrong on both counts. The uncertainty claimed by the policy makers is based on their unwillingness to consider and apply the enormous body of available evidence. The presumption of conservatism is based on the issue in question: that any level of radiation is deemed potentially harmful. Fourth, by not fully considering the cost of implementing current radiation policy, limited societal resources are diverted from critical needs, for little or no societal benefit. There are good data showing that health of the people and the environment are directly impacted by the amount of money available in the society to benefit real needs. In addition, the fear generated by the presumption that all radiation is harmful, leads to avoidance of life-saving medical techniques such as mammograms, irradiation of food, applications of radiation such as smoke detectors and medical research, reduction of air and ground pollution

  1. Building Models of Installations to Recommend Applications in IoT Software Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomlein, Matus; Grønbæk, Kaj

    Internet of Things devices are driven by applications. To stimulate innovation on their platforms, manufacturers of embedded products are creating software ecosystems that enable third-parties develop applications for their devices. Since such applications are developed externally, their seamless...... integration into the platforms is a challenge. In this paper, we propose to use semantic reasoning to select and configure applications in software ecosystems. Our prototype builds a model of the installation and the user goals through several steps. It processes application descriptions created...

  2. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D. A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.

    2003-01-01

    Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

  3. Modelling atmospheric OH-reactivity in a boreal forest ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogensen, D.; Smolander, S.; Sogachev, Andrey;

    2011-01-01

    We have modelled the total atmospheric OH-reactivity in a boreal forest and investigated the individual contributions from gas phase inorganic species, isoprene, monoterpenes, and methane along with other important VOCs. Daily and seasonal variation in OH-reactivity for the year 2008 was examined...... as well as the vertical OH-reactivity profile. We have used SOSA; a one dimensional vertical chemistry-transport model (Boy et al., 2011a) together with measurements from Hyytiala, SMEAR II station, Southern Finland, conducted in August 2008. Model simulations only account for similar to 30......-50% of the total measured OH sink, and in our opinion, the reason for missing OH-reactivity is due to unmeasured unknown BVOCs, and limitations in our knowledge of atmospheric chemistry including uncertainties in rate constants. Furthermore, we found that the OH-reactivity correlates with both organic...

  4. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  5. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  6. Assumptions behind size-based ecosystem models are realistic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Blanchard, Julia L.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.;

    2016-01-01

    A recent publication about balanced harvesting (Froese et al., ICES Journal of Marine Science; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsv122) contains several erroneous statements about size-spectrum models. We refute the statements by showing that the assumptions pertaining to size-spectrum models discussed...... by Froese et al. are realistic and consistent. We further show that the assumption about density-dependence being described by a stock recruitment relationship is responsible for determining whether a peak in the cohort biomass of a population occurs late or early in life. Finally, we argue...

  7. Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: a case study for the Southern Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Reed, James; Semmens, Darius J.; Sherrouse, Ben C.; Troy, Austin

    2016-01-01

    Through extensive research, ecosystem services have been mapped using both survey-based and biophysical approaches, but comparative mapping of public values and those quantified using models has been lacking. In this paper, we mapped hot and cold spots for perceived and modeled ecosystem services by synthesizing results from a social-values mapping study of residents living near the Pike–San Isabel National Forest (PSI), located in the Southern Rocky Mountains, with corresponding biophysically modeled ecosystem services. Social-value maps for the PSI were developed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services tool, providing statistically modeled continuous value surfaces for 12 value types, including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values. Biophysically modeled maps of carbon sequestration and storage, scenic viewsheds, sediment regulation, and water yield were generated using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services tool. Hotspots for both perceived and modeled services were disproportionately located within the PSI’s wilderness areas. Additionally, we used regression analysis to evaluate spatial relationships between perceived biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services and corresponding biophysical model outputs. Our goal was to determine whether publicly valued locations for aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values relate meaningfully to results from corresponding biophysical ecosystem service models. We found weak relationships between perceived and biophysically modeled services, indicating that public perception of ecosystem service provisioning regions is limited. We believe that biophysical and social approaches to ecosystem service mapping can serve as methodological complements that can advance ecosystem services-based resource management, benefitting resource managers by showing potential locations of synergy or conflict between areas supplying ecosystem services and those valued by the public.

  8. Modelling atmospheric OH-reactivity in a boreal forest ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogensen, D.; Smolander, S.; Sogachev, Andrey;

    2011-01-01

    We have modelled the total atmospheric OH-reactivity in a boreal forest and investigated the individual contributions from gas phase inorganic species, isoprene, monoterpenes, and methane along with other important VOCs. Daily and seasonal variation in OH-reactivity for the year 2008 was examined...

  9. Identification of ecosystem parameters by SDE-modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    describing interactions between phytoplankton and water-column nitrogen with light as forcing, using data form a Danish estuary covering a 16 years period (1988-2003), and modelling primary production as a random walk, it is demonstrated how non-linear relationships between states can be identified...

  10. Designing a Model of a Digital Ecosystem for Healthcare and Wellness Using the Business Model Canvas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, María Cosio; Nieto-Hipólito, Juan Ivan; Garibaldi-Beltrán, Julián; Amaya-Parra, Guillermo; Luque-Morales, Priscy; Magaña-Espinoza, Pedro; Aguilar-Velazco, José

    2016-06-01

    Wellness is a term often used to talk about optimal health as "dynamic balance of physical, emotional, social, spiritual, and intellectual health." While healthcare is a term about care offered to patients for improving their health. We use both terms, as well as the Business Model Canvas (BMC) methodology, to design a digital ecosystem model for healthcare and wellness called DE4HW; the model considers economic, technological, and legal asymmetries, which are present on e-services beyond geographical regions. BMC methodology was embedded into the global project strategy called: IBOT (Initiate, Build, Operate and Transfer); it is a methodology to establish a functional, integrated national telemedicine network and virtual education network; of which we took its phases rationale. The results in this work illustrate the design of DE4HW model, into the first phase of IBOT, enriched with the BMC, which enables us to define actors, their interactions, rules and protocols, in order to build DE4HW, while IBOT strategy manages the project goal, up to the transfer phase, where an integral service platform of healthcare and wellness is turned over to stakeholders.

  11. Modelling impacts of second generation bioenergy production on Ecosystem Services in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henner, D. N.; Smith, P.; Davies, C.; McNamara, N. P.

    2016-12-01

    Bioenergy crops are an important source of renewable energy and likely to play a major role in transitioning to a lower CO2 energy system. There is, however, uncertainty about the impacts of the growth of bioenergy crops on broader sustainability encompassed by ecosystem services, further enhanced by ongoing climate change. The goal of this project is to develop a comprehensive model that covers ecosystem services at a continental scale including biodiversity and pollination, water and air security, erosion control and soil security, GHG emissions, soil C and cultural services like tourism value. The technical distribution potential and likely yield of second generation energy crops, such as Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC; willow and poplar) was modelled using ECOSSE, DayCent, SalixFor and MiscanFor models. In addition, methods like water footprint tools, tourism value maps and ecosystem valuation tools and models are utilised. We will present results for synergies and trade-offs between land use change and ecosystem services, impact on food security and land management. Further, we will show modelled yield maps for different cultivars of Miscanthus, willow and poplar in Europe and constraint/opportunity maps based on projected yield and other factors e.g. total economic value, technical potential, current land use, climate change and trade-offs and synergies. It will be essential to include multiple ecosystem services when assessing the potential for bioenergy production/expansion that does not impact other land uses or provisioning services. Considering that the soil GHG balance is dominated by change in soil organic carbon (SOC) and the difference among Miscanthus and SRC is largely determined by yield, an important target for management of perennial energy crops is to achieve the best possible yield using the most appropriate energy crop and cultivar for the local situation. This research could inform future policy decisions on bioenergy crops in

  12. Development of an integrated generic model for multi-scale assessment of the impacts of agro-ecosystems on major ecosystem services in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belem, Mahamadou; Saqalli, Mehdi

    2017-11-01

    This paper presents an integrated model assessing the impacts of climate change, agro-ecosystem and demographic transition patterns on major ecosystem services in West-Africa along a partial overview of economic aspects (poverty reduction, food self-sufficiency and income generation). The model is based on an agent-based model associated with a soil model and multi-scale spatial model. The resulting Model for West-Africa Agro-Ecosystem Integrated Assessment (MOWASIA) is ecologically generic, meaning it is designed for all sudano-sahelian environments but may then be used as an experimentation facility for testing different scenarios combining ecological and socioeconomic dimensions. A case study in Burkina Faso is examined to assess the environmental and economic performances of semi-continuous and continuous farming systems. Results show that the semi-continuous system using organic fertilizer and fallowing practices contribute better to environment preservation and food security than the more economically performant continuous system. In addition, this study showed that farmers heterogeneity could play an important role in agricultural policies planning and assessment. In addition, the results showed that MOWASIA is an effective tool for designing, analysing the impacts of agro-ecosystems. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Integration of nitrogen dynamics into a global terrestrial ecosystem model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Xiaojuan [University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; Wittig, Victoria [University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; Jain, Atul [University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; Post, Wilfred M [ORNL

    2009-01-01

    A comprehensive model of terrestrial N dynamics has been developed and coupled with the geographically explicit terrestrial C cycle component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM). The coupled C-N cycle model represents all the major processes in the N cycle and all major interactions between C and N that affect plant productivity and soil and litter decomposition. Observations from the LIDET data set were compiled for calibration and evaluation of the decomposition submodel within ISAM. For aboveground decomposition, the calibration is accomplished by optimizing parameters related to four processes: the partitioning of leaf litter between metabolic and structural material, the effect of lignin on decomposition, the climate control on decomposition and N mineralization and immobilization. For belowground decomposition, the calibrated processes include the partitioning of root litter between decomposable and resistant material as a function of litter quality, N mineralization and immobilization. The calibrated model successfully captured both the C and N dynamics during decomposition for all major biomes and a wide range of climate conditions. Model results show that net N immobilization and mineralization during litter decomposition are dominantly controlled by initial N concentration of litter and the mass remaining during decomposition. The highest and lowest soil organicNstorage are in tundra (1.24 KgNm2) and desert soil (0.06 Kg N m2). The vegetation N storage is highest in tropical forests (0.5 Kg N m2), and lowest in tundra and desert (<0.03 Kg N m2). N uptake by vegetation is highest in warm and moist regions, and lowest in cold and dry regions. Higher rates of N leaching are found in tropical regions and subtropical regions where soil moisture is higher. The global patterns of vegetation and soil N, N uptake and N leaching estimated with ISAM are consistent with measurements and previous modeling studies. This gives us confidence that ISAM

  14. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystem at Oeregrundsgrepen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Sandberg, Johannes (DHI, Hoersholm (Denmark))

    2010-06-15

    The aim of the work was to provide supplementary input to the risk assessment of a planned final nuclear waste repository at Forsmark. The main deliverable was a computed water exchange between basins in the Forsmark marine area for the period 6500 BC to 9000 AD - based on the hydrodynamic modelling - to be used as input to the landscape dose model. In addition and what is described in this report, a second deliverable was development and application of high-resolution models for the marine ecosystem and radionuclide processes. The purpose of this deliverable was to illustrate the spatial and temporal variation in important processes and parameters, while constituting a complement to previous modelling approaches and providing supporting information to discussions of the marine ecosystem, parameters and variation (see Chapter 4 and 6).To this end, a hydrodynamic model of high temporal and spatial resolution was constructed and calibrated for the Forsmark area. An ecosystem model was then developed and coupled to the hydrodynamic model. In turn, a detailed radionuclide model was coupled to the ecosystem model to provide detailed predictions of radionuclide transport and accumulation in the coastal ecosystem. The ecosystem and radionuclide models were developed in the equation solver MIKE ECOLab that links seamless to the MIKE3 FM hydrodynamic model. The 'standard' ECOLab ecosystem model was extended with six biological state variables, perennial macroalgae, benthic herbivors, detritus feeders, planktivorus fish and, benthic predators representing the relict isopod Saduria and cod. In contrast to the ecosystem model, the radionuclide model was developed from scratch but building on the structure of the ecosystem model and using the output (process rates linking state variables) from the ecosystem model as input to the radionuclide model. Both the ecosystem model and the radionuclide model were run for several years (5-8 years) to bring state variables into

  15. Application of SWAT model for assessing effect on main functions of watershed ecosystem in Headwater, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Sudjarit

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT is a well prediction accuracy of agricultural watershed ecosystem depends on how well model input spatial parameters describe the characteristics of watershed. The aim of this study was to assess the effects on watershed ecosystem main functions in terms of water and sediment yield. It was calibrated and validated for streamflow in the watershed to evaluate alternative management scenarios and estimate their effects on watershed functions. The goodness of the calibration results was assessed by the coefficient of determination (R2. Results indicated that the average annual rainfall and streamflow estimations were quite satisfactory. On a daily scale R2 was about 0.69 and a monthly scale was 0.97 which can be considered as acceptable. However, using for the case study of an intensive agricultural watershed ecosystem, it was shown that model versions are able to appropriately reproduce the water balance, nutrients balance, carbon balance, and energy balance. Crop yield, total streamflow and total suspended sediment (TSS losses calibration were performed using field survey information and data during 2008-2012. This study showed that SWAT model was able to apply for simulating and assessing streamflow, sediment, and nutrients successfully and can be used to study the effects of land use practices on water balance, nutrient balance, carbon balance and energy balance in the small scale of sub-watershed ecosystem as well.

  16. A nitrogen and phosphorus dynamic model of mesocosm pelagic ecosystem in the Jiaozhou Bay in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Keqiang; WANG Xiulin; LIANG Shengkang; SHI Xiaoyong; ZHU Chenjian; CHEN Hu

    2008-01-01

    A nitrogen and phosphorus dynamic model of mesocosm pelagic ecosystem was established according to the summary and synthesis of the models available, in which seven state variables (DIN, PO4-P, DON, DOP, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus)were included. Logically it had five modules-phytoplankton, zooplankton, dissolved inorganic nutrients, dissolved organic nutrients and detritus. The results showed that this model could simulate the variations of DIN, PO4-P, DON, DOP, POC and phytoplankton biomass in pelagic ecosystem in mesocosm properly, based on the site experiment data in the Jiaozhou Bay in the autumn of 1999 and the summer of 2000. Not only the logical structure but also the model parameters were feasible, and about 20 parameters were made to fit for the Jiaozhou Bay during the simulation. All of these are necessary to study the control mechanism of nutrients biogeochemical cycling in the Jiaozhou Bay and other China' s coastal waters.

  17. Introducing mixotrophy into a biogeochemical model describing an eutrophied coastal ecosystem: The Southern North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghyoot, Caroline; Lancelot, Christiane; Flynn, Kevin J.; Mitra, Aditee; Gypens, Nathalie

    2017-04-01

    Most biogeochemical/ecological models divide planktonic protists between phototrophs (phytoplankton) and heterotrophs (zooplankton). However, a large number of planktonic protists are able to combine several mechanisms of carbon and nutrient acquisition. Not representing these multiple mechanisms in biogeochemical/ecological models describing eutrophied coastal ecosystems can potentially lead to different conclusions regarding ecosystem functioning, especially regarding the success of harmful algae, which are often reported as mixotrophic. This modelling study investigates, for the first time, the implications for trophic dynamics of including 3 contrasting forms of mixotrophy, namely osmotrophy (using alkaline phosphatase activity, APA), non-constitutive mixotrophy (acquired phototrophy by microzooplankton) and also constitutive mixotrophy. The application is in the Southern North Sea, an ecosystem that faced, between 1985 and 2005, a significant increase in the nutrient supply N:P ratio (from 31 to 81 mole N:P). The comparison with a traditional model shows that, when the winter N:P ratio in the Southern North Sea is above 22 molN molP-1 (as occurred from mid-1990s), APA allows a 3 to 32% increase of annual gross primary production (GPP). In result of the higher GPP, the annual sedimentation increases as well as the bacterial production. By contrast, APA does not affect the export of matter to higher trophic levels because the increased GPP is mainly due to Phaeocystis colonies, which are not grazed by copepods. The effect of non-constitutive mixotrophy depends on light and affects the ecosystem functioning in terms of annual GPP, transfer to higher trophic levels, sedimentation, and nutrient remineralisation. Constitutive mixotrophy in nanoflagellates appears to have little influence on this ecosystem functioning. An important conclusion from this work is that different forms of mixotrophy have different impacts on system dynamics and it is thus important to

  18. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and point source released radionuclides to an aquatic ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumblad, Linda [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Systems Ecology; Kautsky, Ulrik [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2004-09-01

    In this report three ecosystem models are described in terms of structure, initial data, and results. All models are dynamic, mass-balanced and describe the transport and fate of elements in an open aquatic ecosystem. The models are based on ecologically sound principles, provide model results with high resolution and transparency, and are constrained by the nutrient dynamics of the ecosystem itself. The processes driving the transport in all the models are both the biological processes such as primary production, consumption, respiration and excretion, and abiotic e.g. water exchange and air-sea exchange. The first model, the CNP-model, describes the distribution and fluxes of carbon and nutrients for the coastal ecosystem off Forsmark. The second model, the C-14 model, is an extension of the CNP-model and describes the transport and distribution of hypothetically released C-14 from the underground repository SFR-1 to the ecosystem above. The third model, the RN-model, is a generic radionuclide flow model that models the transport and distribution of radionuclides other than C-14 hypothetically discharged to the ecosystem. The model also analyses the importance of some radionuclide specific mechanisms for the radionuclide flow. The generic radionuclide model is also based on the CNP-model, but has radionuclide specific mechanisms connected to each compartment.

  19. Epidemiology of Brucella infection in the human, livestock and wildlife interface in the Katavi-Rukwa ecosystem, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assenga, Justine A; Matemba, Lucas E; Muller, Shabani K; Malakalinga, Joseph J; Kazwala, Rudovick R

    2015-08-08

    Brucellosis is a zoonosis of public health importance worldwide. In Tanzania, the disease is underreported due to insufficient awareness, inadequate diagnostic protocols, including lack of appropriate reagents for diagnosis. Livestock and wildlife are considered potential sources of infection to humans; however, the role played by these carriers in the epidemiology of the disease in the ecosystems in Tanzania is not fully understood. The objective of this study was to establish the prevalence of anti-Brucella antibodies in humans, wildlife and livestock; and molecular prevalence of Brucella spp in cattle and goats in the Katavi- Rukwa ecosystem. Anti-Brucella antibodies were detected in humans at 0.6 % (95 % CI: 0.1, 2.1 %); cattle at 6.8 % (95 % CI: 5.4, 8.5 %), goats at 1.6 % (95 % CI: 0.4, 4.1 %) and buffaloes at 7.9 % (95 % CI: 1.7, 21.4 %). One of the two sampled lions tested positive. Cattle had a significantly higher prevalence of anti-Brucella antibodies as compared to goats (P Brucella infection. Eight (3.5 %) out of 231 milk samples tested were positive for Brucella spp on Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR), and Brucella abortus biovar 1 was detected in cattle milk. However, no Brucella spp were detected in goat milk. This study has shown the presence of anti- Brucella antibodies in humans, livestock, and wildlife in the Katavi- Rukwa ecosystem. Transmission of the infection between wildlife, livestock and humans is likely to continue due to increasing human activities in the human wildlife interface. This information is an important contribution to public health policy development in the human wildlife interface of the Katavi- Rukwa ecosystem.

  20. Ecosystem models. May 1983-April 1986 (Citations from the NTIS data base). Report for May 1983-April 1986

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1989-02-01

    This bibliography contains citations concerning the design and application of ecosystem models. Ecosystem simulation and characterization models are included. Models for marine biology, plants, microorganisms, and food chains are given. Models that assess the effect of pollutants on specific environments are presented. Many habitat suitability index models are included in this bibliography. (This updated bibliography contains 311 citations, none of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

  1. Ecosystem models. May 1986-January 1989 (Citations from the NTIS data base). Report for May 1986-January 1989

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1989-02-01

    This bibliography contains citations concerning the design and application of ecosystem models. Ecosystem simulation and characterization models are included. Models for marine biology, plants, microorganisms, and food chains are given. Models that assess the effect of pollutants on specific environments are presented. Many habitat suitability index models are included in this bibliography. (This updated bibliography contains 72 citations, all of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

  2. The role of stoichiometric flexibility in modelling forest ecosystem responses to nitrogen fertilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyerholt, Johannes; Zaehle, Sönke

    2015-12-01

    The response of the forest carbon (C) balance to changes in nitrogen (N) deposition is uncertain, partly owing to diverging representations of N cycle processes in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here, we examined how different assumptions about the degree of flexibility of the ecosystem's C : N ratios contribute to this uncertainty, and which of these assumptions best correspond to the available data. We applied these assumptions within the framework of a DGVM and compared the results to responses in net primary productivity (NPP), leaf N concentration, and ecosystem N partitioning, observed at 22 forest N fertilization experiments. Employing flexible ecosystem pool C : N ratios generally resulted in the most convincing model-data agreement with respect to production and foliar N responses. An intermediate degree of stoichiometric flexibility in vegetation, where wood C : N ratio changes were decoupled from leaf and root C : N ratio changes, led to consistent simulation of production and N cycle responses to N addition. Assuming fixed C : N ratios or scaling leaf N concentration changes to other tissues, commonly assumed by DGVMs, was not supported by reported data. Between the tested assumptions, the simulated changes in ecosystem C storage relative to changes in C assimilation varied by up to 20%.

  3. EcoCasting: Using NetLogo models of aquatic ecosystems to teach scientific inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzby, C. K.; Jona, K.

    2010-12-01

    The EcoCasting project from the Office of STEM Education Partnerships (OSEP) at Northwestern University has developed a computer model-based curriculum for high school environmental science classes to study complexity in aquatic ecosystems. EcoCasting aims to deliver cutting edge scientific research on bioaccumulation in invaded Great Lakes food webs to high school classes. Scientists and environmental engineers at Northwestern are investigating unusual bioaccumulation patterns in invaded food webs of the Great Lakes. High school students are exploring this authentic data to understand what is causing the anomalies in the data. Students use a series of NetLogo agent-based models of an aquatic ecosystem to study how toxins accumulate in the food web. Using these models, students learn about predator-prey relationships, bioaccumulation, and invasive species. Students are confronted with contradictory data collected by scientists and investigate alternative food web mechanisms at work. By studying the individual variables, students learn common scientific principles. When multiple variables are combined in a unifying model, students learn that the interactions lead to unexpected outcomes. Students learn about the complexity of the ecosystem and gain proficiency interpreting computer models and scientific data collection in this curriculum. Model of aquatic food chain

  4. Assessing the effect of human-induced land degradation on ecosystem function in the former homelands of South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessels, K. J.; Prince, S. D.

    2004-12-01

    The communal homelands in north-eastern South Africa, created during the apartheid-era, are widely regarded as severely degraded as a result of human utilization. The impacts of degradation on net primary production (NPP) were studied using a time-series (1985 to 2003) of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) NDVI and modeled NPP data for degraded rangelands identified by the National Land Cover (using Landsat TM imagery) and non-degraded rangelands within the same land capability units (LCUs). The NPP of degraded areas was significantly lower than in non-degraded parts of most of the LCUs and the difference between degraded and non-degraded areas did not diminish in years with high rainfall, although NPP in degraded areas in wet years exceeded that of non-degraded areas in drier years. Thus degraded areas had the same resilience as non-degraded areas. The Rain-Use Efficiency (RUE) of degraded areas (NPP per unit rainfall) was also consistently lower than non-degraded areas. The persistence of the effect on the NPP indicated that the degradation is stable at the time scale of 18 years. These results indicate that, while there has not been a catastrophic reduction in ecosystem function within the former homelands, degradation results in a stable state with reduced productivity and RUE. The results highlight the importance of multi-temporal analyses of ecosystem function to understanding land degradation and illustrate how long time-series of terrestrial data might be used in a national land degradation monitoring system.

  5. Comparing approaches to spatially explicit ecosystem service modeling: a case study from the San Pedro River, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Semmens, Darius J.; Winthrop, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Although the number of ecosystem service modeling tools has grown in recent years, quantitative comparative studies of these tools have been lacking. In this study, we applied two leading open-source, spatially explicit ecosystem services modeling tools – Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) – to the San Pedro River watershed in southeast Arizona, USA, and northern Sonora, Mexico. We modeled locally important services that both modeling systems could address – carbon, water, and scenic viewsheds. We then applied managerially relevant scenarios for urban growth and mesquite management to quantify ecosystem service changes. InVEST and ARIES use different modeling approaches and ecosystem services metrics; for carbon, metrics were more similar and results were more easily comparable than for viewsheds or water. However, findings demonstrate similar gains and losses of ecosystem services and conclusions when comparing effects across our scenarios. Results were more closely aligned for landscape-scale urban-growth scenarios and more divergent for a site-scale mesquite-management scenario. Follow-up studies, including testing in different geographic contexts, can improve our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these and other ecosystem services modeling tools as they move closer to readiness for supporting day-to-day resource management.

  6. Preliminary analysis of the Jimo coastal ecosystem with the ecopath model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Meng

    2016-12-01

    The Jimo coast encompasses an area of 2157 km2, and the ecosystem is valuable both socially and economically with regional fisheries substantially contributing to the value. A mass-balanced trophic model consisting of 15 functional ecological groups was developed for the coastal ecosystem using the Ecopath model in Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software (version 6.4.3). The results of the model simulations indicated that the trophic levels of the functional groups varied between 1.0 and 3.76, and the total production of the system was estimated to be 5112.733 t km-2 yr-1 with a total energy transfer efficiency of 17.6%. The proportion of the total flow originating from detritus was estimated to be 48%, whereas that from primary producers was 52%, indicating that the grazing food chain dominated the energy flow. The ratio of total primary productivity to total respiration in the system was 3.78, and the connectivity index was 0.4. The fin cycling index and the mean path length of the energy flow were 4.92% and 2.57