[Ecosystem services supply and consumption and their relationships with human well-being].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Da-Shang; Zheng, Hua; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun

2013-06-01

Sustainable ecosystem services supply is the basis of regional sustainable development, and human beings can satisfy and improve their well-being through ecosystem services consumption. To understand the relationships between ecosystem services supply and consumption and human well-being is of vital importance for coordinating the relationships between the conservation of ecosystem services and the improvement of human well-being. This paper summarized the diversity, complexity, and regionality of ecosystem services supply, the diversity and indispensability of ecosystem services consumption, and the multi-dimension, regionality, and various evaluation indices of human well-being, analyzed the uncertainty and multi-scale correlations between ecosystem services supply and consumption, and elaborated the feedback and asynchronous relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being. Some further research directions for the relationships between ecosystem services supply and consumption and human well-being were recommended.

A Size-based Ecosystem Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ravn-Jonsen, Lars

 Ecosystem Management requires models that can link the ecosystem level to the operation level. This link can be created by an ecosystem production model. Because the function of the individual fish in the marine ecosystem, seen in trophic context, is closely related to its size, the model groups...... fish according to size. The model summarises individual predation events into ecosystem level properties, and thereby uses the law of conversation of mass as a framework. This paper provides the background, the conceptual model, basic assumptions, integration of fishing activities, mathematical...... the predator--prey interaction, (ii) mass balance in the predator--prey allocation, and (iii) mortality and somatic growth as a consequence of the predator--prey allocation. By incorporating additional assumptions, the model can be extended to other dimensions of the ecosystem, for example, space or species...

Adventures in holistic ecosystem modelling: the cumberland basin ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, D. C.; Keizer, P. D.; Daborn, G. R.; Schwinghamer, P.; Silvert, W. L.

A holistic ecosystem model has been developed for the Cumberland Basin, a turbid macrotidal estuary at the head of Canada's Bay of Fundy. The model was constructed as a group exercise involving several dozen scientists. Philosophy of approach and methods were patterned after the BOEDE Ems-Dollard modelling project. The model is one-dimensional, has 3 compartments and 3 boundaries, and is composed of 3 separate submodels (physical, pelagic and benthic). The 28 biological state variables cover the complete estuarine ecosystem and represent broad functional groups of organisms based on trophic relationships. Although still under development and not yet validated, the model has been verified and has reached the stage where most state variables provide reasonable output. The modelling process has stimulated interdisciplinary discussion, identified important data gaps and produced a quantitative tool which can be used to examine ecological hypotheses and determine critical environmental processes. As a result, Canadian scientists have a much better understanding of the Cumberland Basin ecosystem and are better able to provide competent advice on environmental management.

Green Infrastructure, Ecosystem Services, and Human Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Coutts, Christopher; Hahn, Micah

2015-08-18

Contemporary ecological models of health prominently feature the natural environment as fundamental to the ecosystem services that support human life, health, and well-being. The natural environment encompasses and permeates all other spheres of influence on health. Reviews of the natural environment and health literature have tended, at times intentionally, to focus on a limited subset of ecosystem services as well as health benefits stemming from the presence, and access and exposure to, green infrastructure. The sweeping influence of green infrastructure on the myriad ecosystem services essential to health has therefore often been underrepresented. This survey of the literature aims to provide a more comprehensive picture-in the form of a primer-of the many simultaneously acting health co-benefits of green infrastructure. It is hoped that a more accurately exhaustive list of benefits will not only instigate further research into the health co-benefits of green infrastructure but also promote consilience in the many fields, including public health, that must be involved in the landscape conservation necessary to protect and improve health and well-being.

Green Infrastructure, Ecosystem Services, and Human Health

Science.gov (United States)

Coutts, Christopher; Hahn, Micah

2015-01-01

Contemporary ecological models of health prominently feature the natural environment as fundamental to the ecosystem services that support human life, health, and well-being. The natural environment encompasses and permeates all other spheres of influence on health. Reviews of the natural environment and health literature have tended, at times intentionally, to focus on a limited subset of ecosystem services as well as health benefits stemming from the presence, and access and exposure to, green infrastructure. The sweeping influence of green infrastructure on the myriad ecosystem services essential to health has therefore often been underrepresented. This survey of the literature aims to provide a more comprehensive picture—in the form of a primer—of the many simultaneously acting health co-benefits of green infrastructure. It is hoped that a more accurately exhaustive list of benefits will not only instigate further research into the health co-benefits of green infrastructure but also promote consilience in the many fields, including public health, that must be involved in the landscape conservation necessary to protect and improve health and well-being. PMID:26295249

Elasticity in ecosystem services: exploring the variable relationship between ecosystems and human well-being

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tim M. Daw

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Although ecosystem services are increasingly recognized as benefits people obtain from nature, we still have a poor understanding of how they actually enhance multidimensional human well-being, and how well-being is affected by ecosystem change. We develop a concept of "ecosystem service elasticity" (ES elasticity that describes the sensitivity of human well-being to changes in ecosystems. ES Elasticity is a result of complex social and ecological dynamics and is context dependent, individually variable, and likely to demonstrate nonlinear dynamics such as thresholds and hysteresis. We present a conceptual framework that unpacks the chain of causality from ecosystem stocks through flows, goods, value, and shares to contribute to the well-being of different people. This framework builds on previous conceptualizations, but places multidimensional well-being of different people as the final element. This ultimately disaggregated approach emphasizes how different people access benefits and how benefits match their needs or aspirations. Applying this framework to case studies of individual coastal ecosystem services in East Africa illustrates a wide range of social and ecological factors that can affect ES elasticity. For example, food web and habitat dynamics affect the sensitivity of different fisheries ecosystem services to ecological change. Meanwhile high cultural significance, or lack of alternatives enhance ES elasticity, while social mechanisms that prevent access can reduce elasticity. Mapping out how chains are interlinked illustrates how different types of value and the well-being of different people are linked to each other and to common ecological stocks. We suggest that examining chains for individual ecosystem services can suggest potential interventions aimed at poverty alleviation and sustainable ecosystems while mapping out of interlinkages between chains can help to identify possible ecosystem service trade-offs and winners and

Sensitivity of mountain ecosystems to human-accelerated soil erosion. Contrasting geomorphic response between tropical and semi-arid ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanacker, Veerle; Bellin, Nicolas; Schoonejans, Jerome; Molina, Armando; Kubik, Peter W.

2014-05-01

Human-induced land cover changes are causing important adverse effects on the ecological services rendered by mountain ecosystems, and the number of case-studies of the impact of humans on soil erosion and sediment yield has mounted rapidly. A modelling framework that is specifically adapted to mountain environments is currently lacking. Most studies make use of general river basin models that were originally parameterized and calibrated for temperate, low relief landscapes. Transposing these modelling concepts directly to steep environments with shallow and stony soils often leads to unrealistic model predictions, as model input parameters are rarely calibrated for the range of environmental conditions found in mountain regions. Here, we present a conceptual model that evaluates erosion regulation as a function of human disturbances in vegetation cover. The basic idea behind this model is that soil erosion mechanisms are independent of human impact, but that the frequency-magnitude distributions of erosion rates change as a response to human disturbances. Pre-disturbance (or natural) erosion rates are derived from in-situ produced 10Be concentrations in river sediment, while post-disturbance (or modern) erosion rates are derived from sedimentation rates in small catchments. In its simplicity, the model uses vegetation cover change as a proxy of human disturbance in a given vegetation system. The model is then calibrated with field measurements from two mountainous sites with strongly different vegetation dynamics, climatic and geological settings: the Tropical Andes, and the Spanish Betic Cordillera. Natural erosion processes are important in mountainous sites, and natural erosion benchmarks are primordial to assess human-induced changes in erosion rates. While the Spanish Betic Cordillera is commonly characterized as a degraded landscape, there is no significant change in erosion due to human disturbance for uncultivated sites. The opposite is true for the

Human Capital in the Entrepreneurship Ecosystem

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østergaard, Annemarie; Marinova, Svetla Trifonova

2018-01-01

Since Adam Smith (1776) took consideration to human capital as an asset of economic value, academic interest has focused on the economic effects of human capital. In 1931, Schumpeter called for a focus on the individual entrepreneur or the creative destructor with his/her motives, wishes, aspirat......Since Adam Smith (1776) took consideration to human capital as an asset of economic value, academic interest has focused on the economic effects of human capital. In 1931, Schumpeter called for a focus on the individual entrepreneur or the creative destructor with his/her motives, wishes......, aspirations and activities when dealing with entrepreneurship and entrepreneurs. Along these lines, this paper focuses on an in-depth investigation of the domain of human capital in Isenbergs Entrepreneurship Ecosystem. It captures the entrepreneurial mindset of the highly complex individual as a requisite...... for entrepreneurial success and ultimately, for business growth and development. The increasing literature debating human capital confirms the relevance of locating and refining the factors for entrepreneurial success. Consequently, this paper improves the roadmap of Entrepreneurship Ecosystems by adding the innate...

Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochiastic SPAN

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Gary W.; Snapp, Robert R.; Villa, Ferdinando; Bagstad, Kenneth J.

2012-01-01

Ecosystem service models are increasingly in demand for decision making. However, the data required to run these models are often patchy, missing, outdated, or untrustworthy. Further, communication of data and model uncertainty to decision makers is often either absent or unintuitive. In this work, we introduce a systematic approach to addressing both the data gap and the difficulty in communicating uncertainty through a stochastic adaptation of the Service Path Attribution Networks (SPAN) framework. The SPAN formalism assesses ecosystem services through a set of up to 16 maps, which characterize the services in a study area in terms of flow pathways between ecosystems and human beneficiaries. Although the SPAN algorithms were originally defined deterministically, we present them here in a stochastic framework which combines probabilistic input data with a stochastic transport model in order to generate probabilistic spatial outputs. This enables a novel feature among ecosystem service models: the ability to spatially visualize uncertainty in the model results. The stochastic SPAN model can analyze areas where data limitations are prohibitive for deterministic models. Greater uncertainty in the model inputs (including missing data) should lead to greater uncertainty expressed in the model’s output distributions. By using Bayesian belief networks to fill data gaps and expert-provided trust assignments to augment untrustworthy or outdated information, we can account for uncertainty in input data, producing a model that is still able to run and provide information where strictly deterministic models could not. Taken together, these attributes enable more robust and intuitive modelling of ecosystem services under uncertainty.

Modeling for Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

Guswa, A. J.; Brauman, K. A.; Ghile, Y.

2012-12-01

Ecosystem services are those values provided to human society by the structure and processes of ecosystems and landscapes. Water-related services include the transformation of precipitation impulses into supplies of water for hydropower, irrigation, and industrial and municipal uses, the retention and removal of applied nutrients and pollutants, flood-damage mitigation, recreation, and the provision of cultural and aesthetic values. Incorporation of changes to the value of these services in land-use planning and decision making requires identification of the relevant services, engagement of stakeholders, knowledge of how land-use changes impact water quality, quantity, and timing, and mechanisms for putting value on the hydrologic and biogeochemical changes. We present three examples that highlight the characteristics, challenges, and opportunities associated with prototypical decisions that incorporate ecosystem services values: scenario analysis, payment for ecosystem services, and optimal spatial planning. Through these examples, we emphasize the challenges of data availability, model resolution and complexity, and attribution of value. We also provide some suggestions for ways forward.

FEGS at the inflection point: How linking Ecosystem Services to Human Benefit improves management of coastal ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Final ecosystem goods and services (FEGS) are the connection between the ecosystem resources and human stakeholders that benefit from natural capital. The FEGS concept is an extension of the ecosystem services (ES) concept (e.g., Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) and results from...

Ecosystem Services: Benefits Supplied to Human Societies by Natural Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

The module provides a link to an article that is part of a series of articles in Issues in Ecology. This article discusses the many services an ecosystem provides in order to sustain and fulfill human needs.

Socio-hydrologic Modeling to Understand and Mediate the Competition for Water between Humans and Ecosystems: Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Sivapalan, M.

2013-12-01

Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash point in coming decades in all parts of the world. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling development of effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a case study centered on the Murrumbidgee river basin in eastern Australia that illustrates the dynamics of the balance between water extraction and use for food production and efforts to mitigate and reverse consequent degradation of the riparian environment. Interactions between patterns of water management and climate driven hydrological variability within the prevailing socio-economic environment have contributed to the emergence of new whole system dynamics over the last 100 years. In particular, data analysis reveals a pendulum swing between an exclusive focus on agricultural development and food production in the initial stages of water resource development and its attendant socio-economic benefits, followed by the gradual realization of the adverse environmental impacts, efforts to mitigate these with the use of remedial measures, and ultimately concerted efforts and externally imposed solutions to restore environmental health and ecosystem services. A quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that explicitly includes the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems, including evolution of human values/norms relating to water and the environment, is able to mimic broad features of this pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear differential equations that include four state variables describing the co-evolution of storage capacity, irrigated area, human population, and ecosystem health. The model is used to generate insights into the dominant controls of the trajectory of co-evolution of the coupled human-water system, to serve as the theoretical framework for more detailed analysis of

Human activities cause distinct dissolved organic matter composition across freshwater ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Clayton J.; Frost, Paul C.; Morales-Williams, Ana M.; Larson, James H.; Richardson, William B.; Chiandet, Aisha S.; Xenopoulos, Marguerite A.

2016-01-01

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition in freshwater ecosystems is influenced by interactions between physical, chemical, and biological processes that are controlled, at one level, by watershed landscape, hydrology, and their connections. Against this environmental template, humans may strongly influence DOM composition. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of DOM composition variation across freshwater ecosystems differentially affected by human activity. Using optical properties, we described DOM variation across five ecosystem groups of the Laurentian Great Lakes Region: large lakes, Kawartha Lakes, Experimental Lakes Area, urban stormwater ponds, and rivers (n = 184 sites). We determined how between ecosystem variation in DOM composition related to watershed size, land use and cover, water quality measures (conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nutrient concentration, chlorophyll a), and human population density. The five freshwater ecosystem groups had distinctive DOM composition from each other. These significant differences were not explained completely through differences in watershed size nor spatial autocorrelation. Instead, multivariate partial least squares regression showed that DOM composition was related to differences in human impact across freshwater ecosystems. In particular, urban/developed watersheds with higher human population densities had a unique DOM composition with a clear anthropogenic influence that was distinct from DOM composition in natural land cover and/or agricultural watersheds. This nonagricultural, human developed impact on aquatic DOM was most evident through increased levels of a microbial, humic-like parallel factor analysis component (C6). Lotic and lentic ecosystems with low human population densities had DOM compositions more typical of clear water to humic-rich freshwater ecosystems but C6 was only present at trace to background levels. Consequently, humans are strongly altering the quality of DOM in

Ecosystem Functions Connecting Contributions from Ecosystem Services to Human Wellbeing in a Mangrove System in Northern Taiwan

OpenAIRE

Hsieh, Hwey-Lian; Lin, Hsing-Juh; Shih, Shang-Shu; Chen, Chang-Po

2015-01-01

The present study examined a mangrove ecosystem in northern Taiwan to determine how the various components of ecosystem function, ecosystem services and human wellbeing are connected. The overall contributions of mangrove services to specific components of human wellbeing were also assessed. A network was developed and evaluated by an expert panel consisting of hydrologists, ecologists, and experts in the field of culture, landscape or architecture. The results showed that supporting habitats...

Cultural ecosystem services of mountain regions: Modelling the aesthetic value

OpenAIRE

Schirpke, Uta; Timmermann, Florian; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Tasser, Erich

2016-01-01

Mountain regions meet an increasing demand for pleasant landscapes, offering many cultural ecosystem services to both their residents and tourists. As a result of global change, land managers and policy makers are faced with changes to this landscape and need efficient evaluation techniques to assess cultural ecosystem services. This study provides a spatially explicit modelling approach to estimating aesthetic landscape values by relating spatial landscape patterns to human perceptions via a...

Ecosystem Functions Connecting Contributions from Ecosystem Services to Human Wellbeing in a Mangrove System in Northern Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsieh, Hwey-Lian; Lin, Hsing-Juh; Shih, Shang-Shu; Chen, Chang-Po

2015-06-09

The present study examined a mangrove ecosystem in northern Taiwan to determine how the various components of ecosystem function, ecosystem services and human wellbeing are connected. The overall contributions of mangrove services to specific components of human wellbeing were also assessed. A network was developed and evaluated by an expert panel consisting of hydrologists, ecologists, and experts in the field of culture, landscape or architecture. The results showed that supporting habitats was the most important function to human wellbeing, while water quality, habitable climate, air quality, recreational opportunities, and knowledge systems were services that were strongly linked to human welfare. Security of continuous supply of services appeared to be the key to a comfortable life. From a bottom-up and top-down perspective, knowledge systems (a service) were most supported by ecosystem functions, while the security of continuous supply of services (wellbeing) had affected the most services. In addition, the overall benefits of mangrove services to human prosperity concentrated on mental health, security of continuous supply of services, and physical health.

Ecosystem Functions Connecting Contributions from Ecosystem Services to Human Wellbeing in a Mangrove System in Northern Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hwey-Lian Hsieh

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The present study examined a mangrove ecosystem in northern Taiwan to determine how the various components of ecosystem function, ecosystem services and human wellbeing are connected. The overall contributions of mangrove services to specific components of human wellbeing were also assessed. A network was developed and evaluated by an expert panel consisting of hydrologists, ecologists, and experts in the field of culture, landscape or architecture. The results showed that supporting habitats was the most important function to human wellbeing, while water quality, habitable climate, air quality, recreational opportunities, and knowledge systems were services that were strongly linked to human welfare. Security of continuous supply of services appeared to be the key to a comfortable life. From a bottom-up and top-down perspective, knowledge systems (a service were most supported by ecosystem functions, while the security of continuous supply of services (wellbeing had affected the most services. In addition, the overall benefits of mangrove services to human prosperity concentrated on mental health, security of continuous supply of services, and physical health.

Assessing Ecosystem Model Performance in Semiarid Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, A.; Dietze, M.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.

2017-12-01

In ecosystem process modelling, comparing outputs to benchmark datasets observed in the field is an important way to validate models, allowing the modelling community to track model performance over time and compare models at specific sites. Multi-model comparison projects as well as models themselves have largely been focused on temperate forests and similar biomes. Semiarid regions, on the other hand, are underrepresented in land surface and ecosystem modelling efforts, and yet will be disproportionately impacted by disturbances such as climate change due to their sensitivity to changes in the water balance. Benchmarking models at semiarid sites is an important step in assessing and improving models' suitability for predicting the impact of disturbance on semiarid ecosystems. In this study, several ecosystem models were compared at a semiarid grassland in southwestern Arizona using PEcAn, or the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer, an open-source eco-informatics toolbox ideal for creating the repeatable model workflows necessary for benchmarking. Models included SIPNET, DALEC, JULES, ED2, GDAY, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, CLM, CABLE, and FATES. Comparison between model output and benchmarks such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) tended to produce high root mean square error and low correlation coefficients, reflecting poor simulation of seasonality and the tendency for models to create much higher carbon sources than observed. These results indicate that ecosystem models do not currently adequately represent semiarid ecosystem processes.

Human transformations of the Wadden Sea ecosystem through time : a synthesis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lotze, H.K.; Reise, K; Worm, B.; van Beusekom, J.; Busch, M.; Ehlers, A.; Heinrich, D.; Hoffman, R.C.; Holm, P.; Jensen, C.; Knottnerus, O.S.; Langhanki, N.; Prummel, W.; Vollmer, M.; Wolff, W.J.

Todays Wadden Sea is a heavily human-altered ecosystem. Shaped by natural forces since its origin 7,500 years ago, humans gradually gained dominance in influencing ecosystem structure and functioning. Here, we reconstruct the timeline of human impacts and the history of ecological changes in the

Coupling habitat suitability and ecosystem health with AEHRA to estimate E-flows under intensive human activities

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, C. S.; Yang, S. T.; Zhang, H. T.; Liu, C. M.; Sun, Y.; Yang, Z. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Dong, B. E.; Lim, R. P.

2017-08-01

Sustaining adequate environmental flows (e-flows) is a key principle for maintaining river biodiversity and ecosystem health, and for supporting sustainable water resource management in basins under intensive human activities. But few methods could correctly relate river health to e-flows assessment at the catchment scale when they are applied to rivers highly impacted by human activities. An effective method is presented in this study to closely link river health to e-flows assessment for rivers at the catchment scale. Key fish species, as indicators of ecosystem health, were selected by using the foodweb model. A multi-species-based habitat suitability model (MHSI) was improved, and coupled with dominance of the key fish species as well as the Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) to enhance its accuracy in determining the fish-preferred key hydrologic habitat variables related to ecosystem health. Taking 5964 fish samples and concurrent hydrological habitat variables as the basis, the combination of key variables of flow-velocity and water-depth were determined and used to drive the Adapted Ecological Hydraulic Radius Approach (AEHRA) to study e-flows in a Chinese urban river impacted by intensive human activities. Results showed that upstream urbanization resulted in abnormal river-course geomorphology and consequently abnormal e-flows under intensive human activities. Selection of key species based on the foodweb and trophic levels of aquatic ecosystems can reflect a comprehensive requirement on e-flows of the whole aquatic ecosystem, which greatly increases its potential to be used as a guidance tool for rehabilitation of degraded ecosystems at large spatial scales. These findings have significant ramifications for catchment e-flows assessment under intensive human activities and for river ecohealth restoration in such rivers globally.

One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

2013-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of

Mapping and assessment of ecosystem services to improve resource management and human wellbeing in data-scarce peri-urban ecosystems

OpenAIRE

Wangai, Peter Waweru

2017-01-01

The ecosystem service (ES) approach acknowledges the fundamental interactions between biodiversity, ecosystems, natural resources and human wellbeing, while substantiating both tangible and intangible benefits of ecosystems to humans. Reflecting on the challenges of rapid population growth and land use changes in Africa’s urban areas on the one hand, and the opportunities provided by the ES approach on the other hand, the thesis adopts suitable ES mapping and assessment methodologies, framewo...

Lessons learned for spatial modelling of ecosystem services in support of ecosystem accounting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schroter, M.; Remme, R.P.; Sumarga, E.; Barton, D.N.; Hein, L.G.

2015-01-01

Assessment of ecosystem services through spatial modelling plays a key role in ecosystem accounting. Spatial models for ecosystem services try to capture spatial heterogeneity with high accuracy. This endeavour, however, faces several practical constraints. In this article we analyse the trade-offs

Mapping Cumulative Impacts of Human Activities on Marine Ecosystems

OpenAIRE

, Seaplan

2018-01-01

Given the diversity of human uses and natural resources that converge in coastal waters, the potential independent and cumulative impacts of those uses on marine ecosystems are important to consider during ocean planning. This study was designed to support the development and implementation of the 2009 Massachusetts Ocean Management Plan. Its goal was to estimate and visualize the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal and marine ecosystems in the state and federal waters off of Ma...

Model development of a participatory Bayesian network for coupling ecosystem services into integrated water resources management

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei; Lei, Jiaqiang; Zeng, Fanjiang; Mao, Donglei; Zhang, Zhiwei

2017-11-01

There is an increasing consensus on the importance of coupling ecosystem services (ES) into integrated water resource management (IWRM), due to a wide range of benefits to human from the ES. This paper proposes an ES-based IWRM framework within which a participatory Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to assist with the coupling between ES and IWRM. The framework includes three steps: identifying water-related services of ecosystems; analysis of the tradeoff and synergy among users of water; and ES-based IWRM implementation using the participatory BN model. We present the development, evaluation and application of the participatory BN model with the involvement of four participant groups (stakeholders, water manager, water management experts, and research team) in Qira oasis area, Northwest China. As a typical catchment-scale region, the Qira oasis area is facing severe water competition between the demands of human activities and natural ecosystems. Results demonstrate that the BN model developed provides effective integration of ES into a quantitative IWMR framework via public negotiation and feedback. The network results, sensitivity evaluation, and management scenarios are broadly accepted by the participant groups. The intervention scenarios from the model conclude that any water management measure remains unable to sustain the ecosystem health in water-related ES. Greater cooperation among the stakeholders is highly necessary for dealing with such water conflicts. In particular, a proportion of the agricultural water saved through improving water-use efficiency should be transferred to natural ecosystems via water trade. The BN model developed is appropriate for areas throughout the world in which there is intense competition for water between human activities and ecosystems.

Persistence of trophic hotspots and relation to human impacts within an upwelling marine ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Santora, Jarrod A; Sydeman, William J; Schroeder, Isaac D; Field, John C; Miller, Rebecca R; Wells, Brian K

2017-03-01

Human impacts (e.g., fishing, pollution, and shipping) on pelagic ecosystems are increasing, causing concerns about stresses on marine food webs. Maintaining predator-prey relationships through protection of pelagic hotspots is crucial for conservation and management of living marine resources. Biotic components of pelagic, plankton-based, ecosystems exhibit high variability in abundance in time and space (i.e., extreme patchiness), requiring investigation of persistence of abundance across trophic levels to resolve trophic hotspots. Using a 26-yr record of indicators for primary production, secondary (zooplankton and larval fish), and tertiary (seabirds) consumers, we show distributions of trophic hotspots in the southern California Current Ecosystem result from interactions between a strong upwelling center and a productive retention zone with enhanced nutrients, which concentrate prey and predators across multiple trophic levels. Trophic hotspots also overlap with human impacts, including fisheries extraction of coastal pelagic and groundfish species, as well as intense commercial shipping traffic. Spatial overlap of trophic hotspots with fisheries and shipping increases vulnerability of the ecosystem to localized depletion of forage fish, ship strikes on marine mammals, and pollution. This study represents a critical step toward resolving pelagic areas of high conservation interest for planktonic ecosystems and may serve as a model for other ocean regions where ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning of pelagic ecosystems is warranted. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Research Award: Ecosystems and Human Health (Ecohealth ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Jean-Claude Dumais

2012-09-12

Sep 12, 2012 ... Research Award: Ecosystems and Human Health (Ecohealth) ... Your proposal should demonstrate an understanding of the ... demonstrated ability to work independently, and strong written and oral communications skills are ...

The nexus between climate change, ecosystem services and human health: Towards a conceptual framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiabai, Aline; Quiroga, Sonia; Martinez-Juarez, Pablo; Higgins, Sahran; Taylor, Tim

2018-09-01

This paper addresses the impact that changes in natural ecosystems can have on health and wellbeing focusing on the potential co-benefits that green spaces could provide when introduced as climate change adaptation measures. Ignoring such benefits could lead to sub-optimal planning and decision-making. A conceptual framework, building on the ecosystem-enriched Driver, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action model (eDPSEEA), is presented to aid in clarifying the relational structure between green spaces and human health, taking climate change as the key driver. The study has the double intention of (i) summarising the literature with a special emphasis on the ecosystem and health perspectives, as well as the main theories behind these impacts, and (ii) modelling these findings into a framework that allows for multidisciplinary approaches to the underlying relations between human health and green spaces. The paper shows that while the literature based on the ecosystem perspective presents a well-documented association between climate, health and green spaces, the literature using a health-based perspective presents mixed evidence in some cases. The role of contextual factors and the exposure mechanism are rarely addressed. The proposed framework could serve as a multidisciplinary knowledge platform for multi-perspecitve analysis and discussion among experts and stakeholders, as well as to support the operationalization of quantitative assessment and modelling exercises. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem services sustainability in the Mediterranean Sea: assessment of status and trends using multiple modelling approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Macías, Diego; Druon, Jean-Noël; Zulian, Grazia

2016-09-01

Mediterranean ecosystems support important processes and functions that bring direct benefits to human society. Yet, marine ecosystem services are usually overlooked due to the challenges in identifying and quantifying them. This paper proposes the application of several biophysical and ecosystem modelling approaches to assess spatially and temporally the sustainable use and supply of selected marine ecosystem services. Such services include food provision, water purification, coastal protection, lifecycle maintenance and recreation, focusing on the Mediterranean region. Overall, our study found a higher number of decreasing than increasing trends in the natural capacity of the ecosystems to provide marine and coastal services, while in contrast the opposite was observed to be true for the realised flow of services to humans. Such a study paves the way towards an effective support for Blue Growth and the European maritime policies, although little attention is paid to the quantification of marine ecosystem services in this context. We identify a key challenge of integrating biophysical and socio-economic models as a necessary step to further this research.

An exposure-effect approach for evaluating ecosystem-wide risks from human activities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knights, A.M.; Piet, G.J.; Jongbloed, R.H.; Tamis, J.E.; Robinson, L.A.

2015-01-01

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) is promoted as the solution for sustainable use. An ecosystem-wide assessment methodology is therefore required. In this paper, we present an approach to assess the risk to ecosystem components from human activities common to marine and coastal ecosystems. We build

Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

2017-04-01

Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Social-ecological drivers of multiple ecosystem services: what variables explain patterns of ecosystem services across the Norrström drainage basin?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Megan Meacham

2016-03-01

Full Text Available In human dominated landscapes many diverse, and often antagonistic, human activities are intentionally and inadvertently determining the supply of various ecosystem services. Understanding how different social and ecological factors shape the availability of ecosystem services is essential for fair and effective policy and management. In this paper, we evaluate how well alternative social-ecological models of human impact on ecosystems explain patterns of 16 ecosystem services (ES across the 62 municipalities of the Norrström drainage basin in Sweden. We test four models of human impact on ecosystems, land use, ecological modernization, ecological footprint, and location theory, and test their ability to predict both individual ES and bundles of ES. We find that different models do best to predict different types of individual ES. Land use is the best model for predicting provisioning services, standing water quality, biodiversity appreciation, and cross-country skiing, while other models work better for the remaining services. However, this range of models is not able to predict some of the cultural ES. ES bundles are predicted worse than individual ES by these models, but provide a clear picture of variation in multiple ecosystem services based on limited information. Based on our results, we offer suggestions on how social-ecological modeling and assessments of ecosystems can be further developed.

Parallel Computing for Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Dali; Post, Wilfred M.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Berry, Michael

2011-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems are a primary component of research on global environmental change. Observational and modeling research on terrestrial ecosystems at the global scale, however, has lagged behind their counterparts for oceanic and atmospheric systems, largely because the unique challenges associated with the tremendous diversity and complexity of terrestrial ecosystems. There are 8 major types of terrestrial ecosystem: tropical rain forest, savannas, deserts, temperate grassland, deciduous forest, coniferous forest, tundra, and chaparral. The carbon cycle is an important mechanism in the coupling of terrestrial ecosystems with climate through biological fluxes of CO 2 . The influence of terrestrial ecosystems on atmospheric CO 2 can be modeled via several means at different timescales. Important processes include plant dynamics, change in land use, as well as ecosystem biogeography. Over the past several decades, many terrestrial ecosystem models (see the 'Model developments' section) have been developed to understand the interactions between terrestrial carbon storage and CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, as well as the consequences of these interactions. Early TECMs generally adapted simple box-flow exchange models, in which photosynthetic CO 2 uptake and respiratory CO 2 release are simulated in an empirical manner with a small number of vegetation and soil carbon pools. Demands on kinds and amount of information required from global TECMs have grown. Recently, along with the rapid development of parallel computing, spatially explicit TECMs with detailed process based representations of carbon dynamics become attractive, because those models can readily incorporate a variety of additional ecosystem processes (such as dispersal, establishment, growth, mortality etc.) and environmental factors (such as landscape position, pest populations, disturbances, resource manipulations, etc.), and provide information to frame policy options for climate change

A general equilibrium model of ecosystem services in a river basin

Science.gov (United States)

Travis Warziniack

2014-01-01

This study builds a general equilibrium model of ecosystem services, with sectors of the economy competing for use of the environment. The model recognizes that production processes in the real world require a combination of natural and human inputs, and understanding the value of these inputs and their competing uses is necessary when considering policies of resource...

A community-based framework for aquatic ecosystem models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trolle, Didde; Hamilton, D. P.; Hipsey, M. R.

2012-01-01

Here, we communicate a point of departure in the development of aquatic ecosystem models, namely a new community-based framework, which supports an enhanced and transparent union between the collective expertise that exists in the communities of traditional ecologists and model developers. Through...... a literature survey, we document the growing importance of numerical aquatic ecosystem models while also noting the difficulties, up until now, of the aquatic scientific community to make significant advances in these models during the past two decades. Through a common forum for aquatic ecosystem modellers we...... aim to (i) advance collaboration within the aquatic ecosystem modelling community, (ii) enable increased use of models for research, policy and ecosystem-based management, (iii) facilitate a collective framework using common (standardised) code to ensure that model development is incremental, (iv...

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Ecosystems and human well-being: wetlands and water synthesis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Finlayson, M.; Cruz, R.D.; Davidson, N.; Alder, J.; Cork, S.; Groot, de R.S.; Lévêque, C.; Milton, G.R.; Peterson, G.; Pritchard, D.; Ratner, B.D.; Reid, W.V.; Revenga, C.; Rivera, M.; Schutyser, F.; Siebentritt, M.; Stuip, M.; Tharme, R.; Butchard, S.; Dieme-Amting, E.; Gitay, H.; Raaymakers, S.; Taylor, D.

2005-01-01

The Wetlands and Water synthesis was designed for the Ramsar Convention to meet the need for information about the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being and sought to strengthen the link between scientific knowledge and decision-making for the conservation and wise use of wetlands.

A Revisit to the Impacts of Land Use Changes on the Human Wellbeing via Altering the Ecosystem Provisioning Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiangzheng Deng

2013-01-01

Full Text Available It is widely acknowledged that land use changes (LUC associated with climate variations are affecting the human wellbeing. This paper conducted a revisit to relevant researches on the impacts of LUC on human wellbeing via specifically altering the ecosystem provisioning services. First, the explorations on the influences of LUC on ecosystem provisioning services were reviewed, including the researches on the influences of LUC on agroecosystem services and forest and/or grassland ecosystem services. Then the quantitative identification of the impacts of LUC on ecosystem provisioning services was commented on. In the light of enhanced observation and valuation methods, several approaches to ecosystem services and improved models for assessing those ecosystem services were assessed. The major indicators used to uncover the influences of LUC on human wellbeing were summarized including the increase of inputs and the reduction of outputs in production and the augmented health risk induced by the irrational land uses. Finally, this paper uncovered the research gaps and proposed several research directions to address these gaps.

Acid sulfate soils and human health--a Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ljung, Karin; Maley, Fiona; Cook, Angus; Weinstein, Philip

2009-11-01

Acid sulfate soils have been described as the "nastiest soils on earth" because of their strong acidity, increased mobility of potentially toxic elements and limited bioavailability of nutrients. They only cover a small area of the world's total problem soils, but often have significant adverse effects on agriculture, aquaculture and the environment on a local scale. Their location often coincides with high population density areas along the coasts of many developing countries. As a result, their negative impacts on ecosystems can have serious implications to those least equipped for coping with the low crop yields and reduced water quality that can result from acid sulfate soil disturbance. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment called on by the United Nations in 2000 emphasised the importance of ecosystems for human health and well-being. These include the service they provide as sources of food and water, through the control of pollution and disease, as well as for the cultural services ecosystems provide. While the problems related to agriculture, aquaculture and the environment have been the focus of many acid sulfate soil management efforts, the connection to human health has largely been ignored. This paper presents the potential health issues of acid sulfate soils, in relation to the ecosystem services identified in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. It is recognised that significant implications on food security and livelihood can result, as well as on community cohesiveness and the spread of vector-borne disease. However, the connection between these outcomes and acid sulfate soils is often not obvious and it is therefore argued that the impact of such soils on human well-being needs to be recognised in order to raise awareness among the public and decision makers, to in turn facilitate proper management and avoid potential human ill-health.

Identification of ecosystem parameters by SDE-modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for ecosystem modelling have attracted increasing attention during recent years. The modelling has mostly been through simulation experiments in order to analyse how system noise propagates through the ordinary differential equation formulation of ecosystem...... models. Estimation of parameters in SDEs is, however, possible by combining Kalman filter techniques and likelihood estimation. By modelling parameters as random walks it is possible to identify linear as well as non-linear interactions between ecosystem components. By formulating a simple linear SDE...

Modeling the impact of watershed management policies on marine ecosystem services with application to Hood Canal, WA, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Sutherland, D. A.; Kim, C.; Marsik, M.; Spiridonov, G.; Toft, J.; Ruckelshaus, M.; Guerry, A.; Plummer, M.

2011-12-01

Humans obtain numerous benefits from marine ecosystems, including fish to eat; mitigation of storm damage; nutrient and water cycling and primary production; and cultural, aesthetic and recreational values. However, managing these benefits, or ecosystem services, in the marine world relies on an integrated approach that accounts for both marine and watershed activities. Here we present the results of a set of simple, physically-based, and spatially-explicit models that quantify the effects of terrestrial activities on marine ecosystem services. Specifically, we model the circulation and water quality of Hood Canal, WA, USA, a fjord system in Puget Sound where multiple human uses of the nearshore ecosystem (e.g., shellfish aquaculture, recreational Dungeness crab and shellfish harvest) can be compromised when water quality is poor (e.g., hypoxia, excessive non-point source pollution). Linked to the estuarine water quality model is a terrestrial hydrology model that simulates streamflow and nutrient loading, so land cover and climate changes in watersheds can be reflected in the marine environment. In addition, a shellfish aquaculture model is linked to the water quality model to test the sensitivity of the ecosystem service and its value to both terrestrial and marine activities. The modeling framework is general and will be publicly available, allowing easy comparisons of watershed impacts on marine ecosystem services across multiple scales and regions.

Biogeochemical modelling vs. tree-ring data - comparison of forest ecosystem productivity estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Maša; Barcza, Zoltán; Hidy, Dóra; Paladinić, Elvis; Kern, Anikó; Marjanović, Hrvoje

2017-04-01

Forest ecosystems are sensitive to environmental changes as well as human-induce disturbances, therefore process-based models with integrated management modules represent valuable tool for estimating and forecasting forest ecosystem productivity under changing conditions. Biogeochemical model Biome-BGC simulates carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes, and it is widely used for different terrestrial ecosystems. It was modified and parameterised by many researchers in the past to meet the specific local conditions. In this research, we used recently published improved version of the model Biome-BGCMuSo (BBGCMuSo), with multilayer soil module and integrated management module. The aim of our research is to validate modelling results of forest ecosystem productivity (NPP) from BBGCMuSo model with observed productivity estimated from an extensive dataset of tree-rings. The research was conducted in two distinct forest complexes of managed Pedunculate oak in SE Europe (Croatia), namely Pokupsko basin and Spačva basin. First, we parameterized BBGCMuSo model at a local level using eddy-covariance (EC) data from Jastrebarsko EC site. Parameterized model was used for the assessment of productivity on a larger scale. Results of NPP assessment with BBGCMuSo are compared with NPP estimated from tree ring data taken from trees on over 100 plots in both forest complexes. Keywords: Biome-BGCMuSo, forest productivity, model parameterization, NPP, Pedunculate oak

Studies on Interpretive Structural Model for Forest Ecosystem Management Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Suqing; Gao, Xiumei; Zen, Qunying; Zhou, Yuanman; Huang, Yuequn; Han, Weidong; Li, Linfeng; Li, Jiping; Pu, Yingshan

Characterized by their openness, complexity and large scale, forest ecosystems interweave themselves with social system, economic system and other natural ecosystems, thus complicating both their researches and management decision-making. According to the theories of sustainable development, hierarchy-competence levels, cybernetics and feedback, 25 factors have been chosen from human society, economy and nature that affect forest ecosystem management so that they are systematically analyzed via developing an interpretive structural model (ISM) to reveal their relationships and positions in the forest ecosystem management. The ISM consists of 7 layers with the 3 objectives for ecosystem management being the top layer (the seventh layer). The ratio between agricultural production value and industrial production value as the bases of management decision-making in forest ecosystems becomes the first layer at the bottom because it has great impacts on the values of society and the development trends of forestry, while the factors of climatic environments, intensive management extent, management measures, input-output ratio as well as landscape and productivity are arranged from the second to sixth layers respectively.

A framework for the integration of ecosystem and human health in public policy: two case studies with infectious agents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koren, H.S.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas

2004-01-01

Despite that a significant body of published literature exists in the complex area of interconnection among the environment, ecosystems, and human activity, relatively little attention has been paid to the integration and analysis of ecological and human health data in the form of a conceptual model. Human and ecological health protection generally have been treated as separate domains of policy, with significant differences in both the analytic methods used to characterize risks and the policies developed for risk reduction. Understanding the relationships among population growth, development, natural resource use, the environment, human health, and ecosystems is an important area of both scientific inquiry and environmental policy. The present paper focuses on the development of a conceptual model for understanding disease causation, particularly infectious disease, and the implications of such a model for public policy. The conceptual model incorporates ecological and human health risk assessment information applied to case studies of two infectious diseases. This article takes an initial step toward formalizing the conceptual model so that research and assessment procedures can be developed

Measuring, modeling and mapping ecosystem services in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fisher, B.; Turner, R. K.; Burgess, Neil David

2011-01-01

sourced data, data-driven models, and socio-economic scenarios coupled with rule-based assumptions. Here we describe the construction of this spatial information and how it can help to shed light on the complex relationships between ecological and social systems. There are obvious difficulties......In light of the significance that ecosystem service research is likely to play in linking conservation activities and human welfare, systematic approaches to measuring, modeling and mapping ecosystem services (and their value to society) are sorely needed. In this paper we outline one such approach...

Modeling the Personal Health Ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Blobel, Bernd; Brochhausen, Mathias; Ruotsalainen, Pekka

2018-01-01

Complex ecosystems like the pHealth one combine different domains represented by a huge variety of different actors (human beings, organizations, devices, applications, components) belonging to different policy domains, coming from different disciplines, deploying different methodologies, terminologies, and ontologies, offering different levels of knowledge, skills, and experiences, acting in different scenarios and accommodating different business cases to meet the intended business objectives. For correctly modeling such systems, a system-oriented, architecture-centric, ontology-based, policy-driven approach is inevitable, thereby following established Good Modeling Best Practices. However, most of the existing standards, specifications and tools for describing, representing, implementing and managing health (information) systems reflect the advancement of information and communication technology (ICT) represented by different evolutionary levels of data modeling. The paper presents a methodology for integrating, adopting and advancing models, standards, specifications as well as implemented systems and components on the way towards the aforementioned ultimate approach, so meeting the challenge we face when transforming health systems towards ubiquitous, personalized, predictive, preventive, participative, and cognitive health and social care.

Cycling indices for ecosystem models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carney, J.H.; Gardner, R.H.; Mankin, J.B.; DeAngelis, D.L.

1979-01-01

The study of ecosystems is aided by representing structural and functional groups of organisms or processes as discrete components. A complex compartment model will explicitly map pathways from one compartment to another and specify transfer rates. This quantitative description allows insight into the dynamics of flow of nutrients, toxic chemicals, radionuclides, or energy. Three new indices that calculate compartment-specific probabilities of occurrence and recycling and illustrate the problem of applying these indices to ecosystem models are presented

A new framework for assessing river ecosystem health with consideration of human service demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Zengliang; Zuo, Qiting; Shao, Quanxi

2018-06-01

In order to study river health status from harmonic relationship between human and natural environment, a river health evaluation method was proposed from the aspects of ecosystem integrity and human service demand, and the understanding of river health connotation. The proposed method is based on the harmony theory and two types of river health assessment methods (the forecasting model and index evaluation). A new framework for assessing river water health was then formed from the perspective of harmony and dynamic evolution between human service demand and river ecosystem integrity. As a case study, the method and framework were applied to the Shaying River Basin, a tributary of the most polluted Huaihe River Basin in China. The health status of the river's ecosystem and its effect on the mainstream of Huaihe River were evaluated based on water ecological experiment. The results indicated that: (1) the water ecological environment in Shaying River was generally poor and showed a gradual changing pattern along the river. The river health levels were generally "medium" in the upstream but mostly "sub-disease" in the midstream and downstream, indicating that the water pollution in Shaying River were mainly concentrated in the midstream and downstream; (2) the water pollution of Shaying River had great influence on the ecosystem of Huaihe River, and the main influencing factors were TN, followed by TP and COD Mn ; (3) the natural attribute of river was transferring toward to the direction of socialization due to the increasing human activities. The stronger the human activity intervention is, the faster the transfer will be and the more river's attributes will match with human service demand. The proposed framework contributes to the research in water ecology and environment management, and the research results can serve as an important reference for basin management in Shaying River and Huaihe River. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

USGS River Ecosystem Modeling: Where Are We, How Did We Get Here, and Where Are We Going?

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, Leanne; Schrock, Robin; Waddle, Terry; Duda, Jeffrey J.; Lellis, Bill

2009-01-01

This report developed as an outcome of the USGS River Ecosystem Modeling Work Group, convened on February 11, 2008 as a preconference session to the second USGS Modeling Conference in Orange Beach, Ala. Work Group participants gained an understanding of the types of models currently being applied to river ecosystem studies within the USGS, learned how model outputs are being used by a Federal land management agency, and developed recommendations for advancing the state of the art in river ecosystem modeling within the USGS. During a break-out session, participants restated many of the recommendations developed at the first USGS Modeling Conference in 2006 and in previous USGS needs assessments. All Work Group recommendations require organization and coordination across USGS disciplines and regions, and include (1) enhancing communications, (2) increasing efficiency through better use of current human and technologic resources, and (3) providing a national infrastructure for river ecosystem modeling resources, making it easier to integrate modeling efforts. By implementing these recommendations, the USGS will benefit from enhanced multi-disciplinary, integrated models for river ecosystems that provide valuable risk assessment and decision support tools for adaptive management of natural and managed riverine ecosystems. These tools generate key information that resource managers need and can use in making decisions about river ecosystem resources.

Coupled hydrological, ecological, decision and economic models for monetary valuation of riparian ecosystem services

Science.gov (United States)

Goodrich, D. C.; Brookshire, D.; Broadbent, C.; Dixon, M. D.; Brand, L. A.; Thacher, J.; Benedict, K. K.; Lansey, K. E.; Stromberg, J. C.; Stewart, S.; McIntosh, M.

2011-12-01

Water is a critical component for sustaining both natural and human systems. Yet the value of water for sustaining ecosystem services is not well quantified in monetary terms. Ideally decisions involving water resource management would include an apples-to-apples comparison of the costs and benefits in dollars of both market and non-market goods and services - human and ecosystem. To quantify the value of non-market ecosystem services, scientifically defensible relationships must be developed that link the effect of a decision (e.g. human growth) to the change in ecosystem attributes from current conditions. It is this linkage that requires the "poly-disciplinary" coupling of knowledge and models from the behavioral, physical, and ecological sciences. In our experience another key component of making this successful linkage is development of a strong poly-disciplinary scientific team that can readily communicate complex disciplinary knowledge to non-specialists outside their own discipline. The time to build such a team that communicates well and has a strong sense of trust should not be underestimated. The research described in the presentation incorporated hydrologic, vegetation, avian, economic, and decision models into an integrated framework to determine the value of changes in ecological systems that result from changes in human water use. We developed a hydro-bio-economic framework for the San Pedro River Region in Arizona that considers groundwater, stream flow, and riparian vegetation, as well as abundance, diversity, and distribution of birds. In addition, we developed a similar framework for the Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico. There are six research components for this project: (1) decision support and scenario specification, (2) regional groundwater model, (3) the riparian vegetation model, (4) the avian model, (5) methods for displaying the information gradients in the valuation survey instruments (Choice Modeling and Contingent Valuation), and (6

The ecosystem models used for dose assessments in SR-Can

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Avila, Rodolfo [Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden)

2006-11-15

The estimation of doses to humans in the main scenarios considered in SR-Can is carried out by multiplying the radionuclide releases to the biosphere by Landscape Dose Factors (LDF), which provide estimates of doses incurred by unit releases of activity of a specific radionuclide to the landscape. The landscape models considered in deriving the LDFs consist of a set of interconnected ecosystem models of different types, including aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Aquatic ecosystems comprise the sea, lakes and rivers. The terrestrial ecosystems include agricultural lands, forests and mires. In this report dose conversion factor for each individual ecosystem are reported. Two release cases are considered in the report: a constant unit release rate during 10,000 years and a pulse release, i.e. a unit release during one year. For deriving the LDF values, at each considered time period an ecosystem model is assigned to each landscape object, according to the projected succession of ecosystems in the objects. The applied ecosystem models have been described elsewhere, but some modifications have been made which are described in this report. The main modifications applied to the models are to consider releases through bottom sediments and to consider upstream fluxes for the estimation of the fluxes of radionuclides between the different landscape objects. To facilitate calculations of the radionuclide concentrations in the ingested food, aggregated transfer factors are derived for each ecosystem type. These relate the radionuclide concentrations in the edible carbon production in different ecosystem types to the radionuclide concentrations in the main environmental substrates of the ecosystems, i.e. the water in aquatic ecosystems and the soil in the terrestrial ecosystems. The report provides a description of the methods applied for the derivation of aggregated transfer factors for each ecosystem type and for irrigation. These factors are applicable for situations of

The ecosystem models used for dose assessments in SR-Can

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avila, Rodolfo

2006-11-01

The estimation of doses to humans in the main scenarios considered in SR-Can is carried out by multiplying the radionuclide releases to the biosphere by Landscape Dose Factors (LDF), which provide estimates of doses incurred by unit releases of activity of a specific radionuclide to the landscape. The landscape models considered in deriving the LDFs consist of a set of interconnected ecosystem models of different types, including aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Aquatic ecosystems comprise the sea, lakes and rivers. The terrestrial ecosystems include agricultural lands, forests and mires. In this report dose conversion factor for each individual ecosystem are reported. Two release cases are considered in the report: a constant unit release rate during 10,000 years and a pulse release, i.e. a unit release during one year. For deriving the LDF values, at each considered time period an ecosystem model is assigned to each landscape object, according to the projected succession of ecosystems in the objects. The applied ecosystem models have been described elsewhere, but some modifications have been made which are described in this report. The main modifications applied to the models are to consider releases through bottom sediments and to consider upstream fluxes for the estimation of the fluxes of radionuclides between the different landscape objects. To facilitate calculations of the radionuclide concentrations in the ingested food, aggregated transfer factors are derived for each ecosystem type. These relate the radionuclide concentrations in the edible carbon production in different ecosystem types to the radionuclide concentrations in the main environmental substrates of the ecosystems, i.e. the water in aquatic ecosystems and the soil in the terrestrial ecosystems. The report provides a description of the methods applied for the derivation of aggregated transfer factors for each ecosystem type and for irrigation. These factors are applicable for situations of

Spatial Assessment of Forest Ecosystem Functions and Services using Human Relating Factors for SDG

Science.gov (United States)

Song, C.; Lee, W. K.; Jeon, S. W.; Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.

2015-12-01

Application of ecosystem service concept in environmental related decision making could be numerical and objective standard for policy maker between preserving and developing perspective of environment. However, pursuing maximum benefit from natural capital through ecosystem services caused failure by losing ecosystem functions through its trade-offs. Therefore, difference between ecosystem functions and services were demonstrated and would apply human relating perspectives. Assessment results of ecosystem functions and services can be divided 3 parts. Tree growth per year set as the ecosystem function factor and indicated through so called pure function map. After that, relating functions can be driven such as water conservation, air pollutant purification, climate change regulation, and timber production. Overall process and amount are numerically quantified. These functional results can be transferred to ecosystem services by multiplying economic unit value, so function reflecting service maps can be generated. On the other hand, above services, to implement more reliable human demand, human reflecting service maps are also be developed. As the validation, quantified ecosystem functions are compared with former results through pixel based analysis. Three maps are compared, and through comparing difference between ecosystem function and services and inversed trends in function based and human based service are analysed. In this study, we could find differences in PF, FRS, and HRS in relation to based ecosystem conditions. This study suggests that the differences in PF, FRS, and HRS should be understood in the decision making process for sustainable management of ecosystem services. Although the analysis is based on in sort existing process separation, it is important to consider the possibility of different usage of ecosystem function assessment results and ecosystem service assessment results in SDG policy making. Furthermore, process based functional approach

Prehistoric Human-environment Interactions and Their Impact on Aquatic Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Mackay, H.; Henderson, A. C. G.; van Hardenbroek, M.; Cavers, G.; Crone, A.; Davies, K. L.; Fonville, T. R.; Head, K.; Langdon, P. G.; Matton, R.; McCormick, F.; Murray, E.; Whitehouse, N. J.; Brown, A. G.

2017-12-01

One of the first widespread human-environment interactions in Scotland and Ireland occurred 3000 years ago when communities first inhabited wetlands, building artificial islands in lakes called crannogs. The reason behind the development and intermittent occupation of crannogs is unclear. We don't know if they were a response to changes in environment or if they were driven by societal influences. Furthermore, the impact of the construction, settlement and human activities on lake ecosystems is unknown, but is a key example of early anthropogenic signatures on the environment. Our research characterises the prehistoric human-environment interactions associated with crannogs by analysing geochemical and biological signals preserved within the crannog and wetland sediments. Records of anthropogenic activities and environmental change have been produced using lipid biomarkers of faecal matter, sedimentary DNA, and the remains of beetles, aquatic invertebrates (chironomids), siliceous algae (diatoms) and pollen. Results of these analyses reveal settlement occupations occurred in phases from the Iron Age to the Medieval Period. The main effects of occupation on the wetland ecosystems are nutrient-driven increases in productivity and shifts in aquatic species from clear water taxa to those associated with more eutrophic conditions. Crannog abandonment reduces nutrient inputs and therefore levels of aquatic productivity, as evidenced by decreases in the abundance of siliceous algae. Despite returns to pre-settlement nutrient and productivity levels, the lake ecosystems do not recover to their previous ecological state: dominant aquatic invertebrate and siliceous algae taxa shift in response to elevated levels of macrophytes within the lakes. Whilst these phase changes in lake ecosystems highlight their adaptive capacity to environmental change, the temporary human interactions associated with crannogs had persisting environmental impacts that shaped the long

A descriptive ecosystem model - a strategy for model development during site investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loefgren, Anders

2003-09-01

This report describes a strategy for the development of a site descriptive model for the surface ecosystem on the potential deep repository sites. The surface ecosystem embraces many disciplines, and these have to be identified, described and integrated in order to construct a descriptive ecosystem model that describes and quantifies biotic and abiotic patterns and processes of importance for the ecosystem on the site. The descriptive model includes both present day conditions and historical information. The descriptive ecosystem model will be used to supply input data for the safety assessment and to serve as the baseline model for devising a monitoring program to detect short-term disturbances caused first by the site investigations and later by the construction of the deep repository. Furthermore, it will serve as a reference for future comparisons to determine more long-term effects or changes caused by the deep repository. The report adopts a non-site-specific approach focusing on the following aims: 1. To present and define the properties that will constitute the descriptive ecosystem model. 2. To present a methodology for determining those properties. 3. To describe and develop the framework for the descriptive ecosystem model by integrating the different properties. 4. To present vital data from other site descriptive models such as those for geology or hydrogeology that interacts with and affects the descriptive ecosystem model. The properties are described under four different sections: general physical properties of the landscape, the terrestrial system, the limnic system and the marine system. These headings are further subdivided into entities that integrate properties in relation to processes

A descriptive ecosystem model - a strategy for model development during site investigations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loefgren, Anders [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Botany; Lindborg, Tobias [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

2003-09-01

This report describes a strategy for the development of a site descriptive model for the surface ecosystem on the potential deep repository sites. The surface ecosystem embraces many disciplines, and these have to be identified, described and integrated in order to construct a descriptive ecosystem model that describes and quantifies biotic and abiotic patterns and processes of importance for the ecosystem on the site. The descriptive model includes both present day conditions and historical information. The descriptive ecosystem model will be used to supply input data for the safety assessment and to serve as the baseline model for devising a monitoring program to detect short-term disturbances caused first by the site investigations and later by the construction of the deep repository. Furthermore, it will serve as a reference for future comparisons to determine more long-term effects or changes caused by the deep repository. The report adopts a non-site-specific approach focusing on the following aims: 1. To present and define the properties that will constitute the descriptive ecosystem model. 2. To present a methodology for determining those properties. 3. To describe and develop the framework for the descriptive ecosystem model by integrating the different properties. 4. To present vital data from other site descriptive models such as those for geology or hydrogeology that interacts with and affects the descriptive ecosystem model. The properties are described under four different sections: general physical properties of the landscape, the terrestrial system, the limnic system and the marine system. These headings are further subdivided into entities that integrate properties in relation to processes.

Emulating Host-Microbiome Ecosystem of Human Gastrointestinal Tract in Vitro.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Gun-Seok; Park, Min Hee; Shin, Woojung; Zhao, Connie; Sheikh, Sameer; Oh, So Jung; Kim, Hyun Jung

2017-06-01

The human gut microbiome performs prodigious physiological functions such as production of microbial metabolites, modulation of nutrient digestion and drug metabolism, control of immune system, and prevention of infection. Paradoxically, gut microbiome can also negatively orchestrate the host responses in diseases or chronic disorders, suggesting that the regulated and balanced host-gut microbiome crosstalk is a salient prerequisite in gastrointestinal physiology. To understand the pathophysiological role of host-microbiome crosstalk, it is critical to recreate in vivo relevant models of the host-gut microbiome ecosystem in human. However, controlling the multi-species microbial communities and their uncontrolled growth has remained a notable technical challenge. Furthermore, conventional two-dimensional (2D) or 3D culture systems do not recapitulate multicellular microarchitectures, mechanical dynamics, and tissue-specific functions. Here, we review recent advances and current pitfalls of in vitro and ex vivo models that display human GI functions. We also discuss how the disruptive technologies such as 3D organoids or a human organ-on-a-chip microphysiological system can contribute to better emulate host-gut microbiome crosstalks in health and disease. Finally, the medical and pharmaceutical significance of the gut microbiome-based personalized interventions is underlined as a future perspective.

Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

OpenAIRE

Seidl, Rupert; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Fonseca, Teresa F.; Gillet, François; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Merganičová, Katarína; Netherer, Sigrid; Arpaci, Alexander; Bontemps, Jean-Daniel; Bugmann, Harald

2011-01-01

Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework f...

Measuring resilience of coupled human-water systems using ecosystem services compatible indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Hannah, D. M.; Mao, F.; Karpouzoglou, T.; Clark, J.; Buytaert, W.

2017-12-01

To explore the dynamics of socio-hydrological systems under change, the concepts of resilience and ecosystem services serve as useful tools. In this context, resilience refers to the capacity of a socio-hydrological system to retain its structural and functional state despite perturbations, while ecosystem services offer a good proxy of the state that reflects human-water intersections. Efforts are needed to maintain and improve socio-hydrological resilience for future contingencies to secure hydrological ecosystem services supply. This requires holistic indicators of resilience for coupled human-water systems that are essential for quantitative assessment, change tracking, inter-case comparison, as well as resilience management. However, such indicators are still lacking. Our research aims to propose widely applicable resilience indicators that are suitable for the coupled human-water context, and compatible with ecosystem services. The existing resilience indicators for both eco-hydrological and socio-economic sectors are scrutinised, screened and analysed to build these new indicators. Using the proposed indicators, we compare the resilience and its temporal change among a set of example regions, and discusses the linkages between socio-hydrological resilience and hydrological ecosystem services with empirical cases.

Environmental and Human Controls of Ecosystem Functional Diversity in Temperate South America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Domingo Alcaraz-Segura

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The regional controls of biodiversity patterns have been traditionally evaluated using structural and compositional components at the species level, but evaluation of the functional component at the ecosystem level is still scarce. During the last decades, the role of ecosystem functioning in management and conservation has increased. Our aim was to use satellite-derived Ecosystem Functional Types (EFTs, patches of the land-surface with similar carbon gain dynamics to characterize the regional patterns of ecosystem functional diversity and to evaluate the environmental and human controls that determine EFT richness across natural and human-modified systems in temperate South America. The EFT identification was based on three descriptors of carbon gain dynamics derived from seasonal curves of the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI: annual mean (surrogate of primary production, seasonal coefficient of variation (indicator of seasonality and date of maximum EVI (descriptor of phenology. As observed for species richness in the southern hemisphere, water availability, not energy, emerged as the main climatic driver of EFT richness in natural areas of temperate South America. In anthropogenic areas, the role of both water and energy decreased and increasing human intervention increased richness at low levels of human influence, but decreased richness at high levels of human influence.

Ecosystem Approaches to Human Health Graduate Training Awards ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

IDRC's Ecosystem Approaches to Human Health (Ecohealth) program initiative ... Each grant will consist of CA $15 000 for field research and up to CA $4 000 for ... Nutrition, health policy, and ethics in the age of public-private partnerships.

Scientists' Needs in Software Ecosystem Modeling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, Slinger; Handoyo, Eko; Alves, C.

2015-01-01

Currently the landscape of software ecosystem modelling methods and languages is like Babel after the fall of the tower: there are many methods and languages available and interchanging data between researchers and organizations that actively govern their ecosystem, is practically impossible. The

Evaluating the governance model of hardware-dependent software ecosystems - a case study of the axis ecosystem

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per

2014-01-01

specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) software ecosystem. We conduct an exploratory case study collecting data from observations and interviews...... and apply the governance model for prevention and improvement of the software ecosystem health proposed by Jansen and Cusumano. Our results reveal that although the governance actions do not address the majority of their governance model, the ADP ecosystem is considered a growing ecosystem providing...

Accounting for ecosystem services and biodiversity in Limburg province, the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Remme, R.P.

2016-01-01

Ecosystem services and biodiversity are important for human well-being. Ecosystem services are the contributions of ecosystems to benefits used in economic and other human activity. This thesis aims to empirically assess how spatial models for ecosystem service flows and biodiversity can be

[Measuring water ecological carrying capacity with the ecosystem-service-based ecological footprint (ESEF) method: Theory, models and application].

Science.gov (United States)

Jiao, Wen-jun; Min, Qing-wen; Li, Wen-hua; Fuller, Anthony M

2015-04-01

Integrated watershed management based on aquatic ecosystems has been increasingly acknowledged. Such a change in the philosophy of water environment management requires recognizing the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems for human society from a more general perspective. The concept of the water ecological carrying capacity is therefore put forward, which considers both water resources and water environment, connects socio-economic development to aquatic ecosystems and provides strong support for integrated watershed management. In this paper, the authors proposed an ESEF-based measure of water ecological carrying capacity and constructed ESEF-based models of water ecological footprint and capacity, aiming to evaluate water ecological carrying capacity with footprint methods. A regional model of Taihu Lake Basin was constructed and applied to evaluate the water ecological carrying capacity in Changzhou City which located in the upper reaches of the basin. Results showed that human demand for water ecosystem services in this city had exceeded the supply capacity of local aquatic ecosystems and the significant gap between demand and supply had jeopardized the sustainability of local aquatic ecosystems. Considering aqua-product provision, water supply and pollutant absorption in an integrated way, the scale of population and economy aquatic ecosystems in Changzhou could bear only 54% of the current status.

Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bertram, Jason

2014-01-01

Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes’ broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on the information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example

Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bertram, Jason, E-mail: jason.bertram@anu.edu.au [Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

2014-12-05

Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes’ broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on the information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example.

Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Janssen, Annette B G; Arhonditsis, George B.; Beusen, Arthur

2015-01-01

Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality...... management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity...... available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5–10 years...

From Cascade to Bottom-Up Ecosystem Services Model: How Does Social Cohesion Emerge from Urban Agriculture?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Petit-Boix

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Given the expansion of urban agriculture (UA, we need to understand how this system provides ecosystem services, including foundational societal needs such as social cohesion, i.e., people’s willingness to cooperate with one another. Although social cohesion in UA has been documented, there is no framework for its emergence and how it can be modeled within a sustainability framework. In this study, we address this literature gap by showing how the popular cascade ecosystem services model can be modified to include social structures. We then transform the cascade model into a bottom-up causal framework for UA. In this bottom-up framework, basic biophysical (e.g., land availability and social (e.g., leadership ecosystem structures and processes lead to human activities (e.g., learning that can foster specific human attitudes and feelings (e.g., trust. These attitudes and feelings, when aggregated (e.g., social network, generate an ecosystem value of social cohesion. These cause-effect relationships can support the development of causality pathways in social life cycle assessment (S-LCA and further our understanding of the mechanisms behind social impacts and benefits. The framework also supports UA studies by showing the sustainability of UA as an emergent food supplier in cities.

Prototyping an online wetland ecosystem services model using open model sharing standards

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, M.; Liu, S.; Euliss, N.H.; Young, Caitlin; Mushet, D.M.

2011-01-01

Great interest currently exists for developing ecosystem models to forecast how ecosystem services may change under alternative land use and climate futures. Ecosystem services are diverse and include supporting services or functions (e.g., primary production, nutrient cycling), provisioning services (e.g., wildlife, groundwater), regulating services (e.g., water purification, floodwater retention), and even cultural services (e.g., ecotourism, cultural heritage). Hence, the knowledge base necessary to quantify ecosystem services is broad and derived from many diverse scientific disciplines. Building the required interdisciplinary models is especially challenging as modelers from different locations and times may develop the disciplinary models needed for ecosystem simulations, and these models must be identified and made accessible to the interdisciplinary simulation. Additional difficulties include inconsistent data structures, formats, and metadata required by geospatial models as well as limitations on computing, storage, and connectivity. Traditional standalone and closed network systems cannot fully support sharing and integrating interdisciplinary geospatial models from variant sources. To address this need, we developed an approach to openly share and access geospatial computational models using distributed Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and open geospatial standards. We included a means to share computational models compliant with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Processing Services (WPS) standard to ensure modelers have an efficient and simplified means to publish new models. To demonstrate our approach, we developed five disciplinary models that can be integrated and shared to simulate a few of the ecosystem services (e.g., water storage, waterfowl breeding) that are provided by wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America.

Provision of ecosystem services by human-made structures in a highly impacted estuary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Layman, Craig A; Jud, Zachary R; Archer, Stephanie K; Riera, David

2014-01-01

Water filtration is one of the most important ecosystem services provided by sessile organisms in coastal ecosystems. As a consequence of increased coastal development, human-made shoreline structures (e.g., docks and bulkheads) are now common, providing extensive surface area for colonization by filter feeders. We estimate that in a highly urbanized sub-tropical estuary, water filtration capacity supported by filter feeding assemblages on dock pilings accounts for 11.7 million liters of water h −1 , or ∼30% of the filtration provided by all natural oyster reef throughout the estuary. Assemblage composition, and thus filtration capacity, varied as a function of piling type, suggesting that the choice of building material has critical implications for ecosystem function. A more thorough depiction of the function of coastal ecosystems necessitates quantification of the extensive ecosystem services associated with human-made structures. (paper)

Concerning human well-being and ecosystems sustainability on water resources management for Qishan River

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, C. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

2016-12-01

There are no large hydraulic structures in Qishan River cause the less human interference than other major river in Taiwan. However, the aquatic habitats still suffer disturbance from the discharge changes greatly between wet and drought season, and Jiaxian Weir and Yuemei Weir draw surplus water from Qishan River to Nanhua Reservoir and Agongdian Reservoir respectively. The weir operation rule doesn't clear define how much environmental flow should be preserved for maintaining downstream ecological environment. Hence, the study proposes a process for evaluating environmental flow under considering impact on human well-being and ecosystems sustainability. Empirical formula, hydrological, hydraulic and habitat methodologies were used to propose the environmental flow alternatives. Next, water allocation model and Habitat model were used to analysis the impact of environment flow alternatives on human well-being and ecosystems sustainability. The results show the suggested environmental flow in Qishan River is estimated by MAF10%. The environmental flow is between 8.03 10.83 cms during wet season and is between 1.07 1.44cms during wet season. The simulation results also provide the evidence from diverse aspect to help different authorities realized what they get and lose. The information can advance to reach a consensus during negotiations with different authorities and help decision maker make decisions.

Review on the Application of Ecosystem Models in Biodiversity ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper is an exposition with the sole aim of highlighting the relevance of ecosystem models in the analyses of biodiversity. The structure of ecosystem models enables researchers to design and consequently formulate monitoring programs that will be useful to the conservation of biodiversity. Ecosystem theoretical ...

The Human Appropriation of Ecosystem Service Values (HAESV) in the Sundarban Biosphere Region Using Biophysical Quantification Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Sannigrahi, S.; Paul, S. K.; Sen, S.

2017-12-01

Human appropriation, especially unusual changes in land-use and land cover, significantly affects ecosystem services and functions. Driven by the growth of the population and the economy, human demands on earth's land surface have increased dramatically in the past 50 - 100 years. The area studied was divided into six major categories; cropland, mangrove forest, sparse vegetation, built-up urban area, water bodies and sandy coast, and the land coverage was calculated for the years 1973, 1988, 2002 and 2013. The spatial explicit value of the primary regulatory and supporting ecosystem services (climate regulation, raw material production, water regulation) were quantified through the indirect market valuation approach. A light use efficiency based ecosystem model, i.e. Carnegie- Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) was employed to estimate the carbon sequestration and oxygen production services of the ecosystem. The ArcGIS matrix transform approach calculated LULC dynamics among the classes. Investigation revealed that the built-up urban area increased from 42.9 km2 in 1973 to 308 km2 in 2013 with a 6.6 km2 yr-1 expansion rate. Similarly, water bodies (especially inland water bodies increased dramatically in the north central region) increased from 3392.1 sq.km in 1973 to 5420 sq.km in 2013 at the expense of semi-natural and natural land resulting in significant changes of ecological and ecosystem services. However, the area occupied by dense mangrove forest decreased substantially during the 40 years (1973 -2013); it was recorded to cover 2294 km2 in 1973 and 1820 km2 in 2013. The results showed that the estimated regulatory and supporting ecosystem services respond quite differently to human appropriation across the regions in both the economic and ecological dimensions. While evaluating the trade-of between human appropriation and ecosystem service changes, it has been estimated that the ecosystem service value of organic matter provision services decreased from 755 US

Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Seidl, R.; Fernandes, P.M.; Fonseca, T.F.; Gillet, F.; Jöhnsson, A.M.; Merganičová, K.; Netherer, S.; Arpaci, A.; Bontemps, J.D.; Bugmann, H.; González-Olabarria, J.R.; Lasch, P.; Meredieu, C.; Moreira, F.; Schelhaas, M.; Mohren, G.M.J.

2011-01-01

Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling

Indicators of human health in ecosystems: what do we measure?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cole, D.C.; Eyles, J.; Gibson, B.L.

1998-01-01

Increasingly, scientists are being called upon to assist in the development of indicators for monitoring ecosystem health. For human health indicators, they may draw on environmental exposure, human morbidity/mortality or well-being and sustainability approaches. To improve the rigour of indicators, we propose six scientific criteria for indicator selection: (1) data availability, suitability and representativeness (of populations), (2) indicator validity (face, construct, predictive and convergent) and reliability; (3) indicator responsiveness to change; (4) indicator desegregation capability (across personal and community characteristics); (5) indicator comparability (across populations and jurisdictions); and (6) indicator representativeness (across important dimensions of concern). We comment on our current capacity to adhere to such criteria with examples of measures of environmental exposure, human health and sustainability. We recognize the considerable work still required on documenting environment-human health relationships and on monitoring potential indicators in similar ways over time. Yet we argue that such work is essential in order for science to inform policy decisions which affect the health of ecosystems and human health. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

Past Holocene soil erosion modeling as a new way to decipher human-climate-environment interactions on natural geo-ecosystem over long time-scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Simonneau, Anaëlle; Di Giovanni, Christian; Chapron, Emmanuel

2017-04-01

Soil erosion is a global phenomenon dealing with both environmental, societal and economic issues. Soil erosion is also one of the key processes when it is a matter of Human-climate-environment interactions [1, 2] since if mechanical erosion of continental surfaces initially results from climatic forcing, it can be largely amplified by anthropogenic activities. Using multi-scalar datasets to model long-term (Holocene) erosion fluxes in contrasted areas, where human pressure is well documented by geoarchaeology, we address how landscape evolution, geomorphological processes, ecosystem response and human impacts have been connected over time. Beyond that, such interdisciplinary and integrative approach allow (1) to locally date, qualify, and in particular quantify, both climate variability (rainfall) and impacts of human activities on soils, and (2) to discuss of potential feedback mechanisms and the legacy of past socio-cultural systems on actual geo-ecosystems. Lacustrine sediment represents one of the more relevant natural archives in order to reconstruct environmental or climatic variability and human activities over the past thousand years. Over the last 50 years, the edges of lakes Paladru (low altitude site, 640 m a.s.l.) and Blanc Huez (high-altitude site, 2250 m a.s.l.), both located in Western French Alps and therefore sensitive to the same climatic influences, have been deeply studied by archaeologists who documented and dated periods of enhanced human pressures (agriculture, mining [3, 4]). In these two case-studies, we were therefore able to confront the specific calendars of local human activities with past landscape evolution (vegetation cover, 5) and soil erosion fluxes reconstituted from specific organic tracers quantified into the lacustrine sediments [3, 6]. Results demonstrated that, over the Holocene, climatic forcing, and more particularly glacial fluctuations, influenced human accessibility to high-altitude sites (lake Blanc Huez) and therefore

Estimating net ecosystem exchange of carbon using the normalized difference vegetation index and an ecosystem model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veroustraete, F.; Patyn, J.; Myneni, R.B.

1996-01-01

The evaluation and prediction of changes in carbon dynamics at the ecosystem level is a key issue in studies of global change. An operational concept for the determination of carbon fluxes for the Belgian territory is the goal of the presented study. The approach is based on the integration of remotely sensed data into ecosystem models in order to evaluate photosynthetic assimilation and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Remote sensing can be developed as an operational tool to determine the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (feAR). A review of the methodological approach of mapping fPAR dynamics at the regional scale by means of NOAA11-A VHRR / 2 data for the year 1990 is given. The processing sequence from raw radiance values to fPAR is presented. An interesting aspect of incorporating remote sensing derived fPAR in ecosystem models is the potential for modeling actual as opposed to potential vegetation. Further work should prove whether the concepts presented and the assumptions made in this study are valid. (NEE). Complex ecosystem models with a highly predictive value for a specific ecosystem are generally not suitable for global or regional applications, since they require a substantial set of ancillary data becoming increasingly larger with increasing complexity of the model. The ideal model for our purpose is one that is simple enough to be used in global scale modeling, and which can be adapted for different ecosystems or vegetation types. The fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) during the growing season determines in part net photosynthesis and phytomass production (Ruimy, 1995). Remotely measured red and near-infrared spectral reflectances can be used to estimate fPAR. Therefore, a possible approach is to estimate net photosynthesis, phytomass, and NEE from a combination of satellite data and an ecosystem model that includes carbon dynamics. It has to be stated that some parts of the work presented in this

Ecosystem change and human health: implementation economics and policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Pattanayak, S K; Kramer, R A; Vincent, J R

2017-06-05

Several recent initiatives such as Planetary Health , EcoHealth and One Health claim that human health depends on flourishing natural ecosystems. However, little has been said about the operational and implementation challenges of health-oriented conservation actions on the ground. We contend that ecological-epidemiological research must be complemented by a form of implementation science that examines: (i) the links between specific conservation actions and the resulting ecological changes, and (ii) how this ecological change impacts human health and well-being, when human behaviours are considered. Drawing on the policy evaluation tradition in public economics, first, we present three examples of recent social science research on conservation interventions that affect human health. These examples are from low- and middle-income countries in the tropics and subtropics. Second, drawing on these examples, we present three propositions related to impact evaluation and non-market valuation that can help guide future multidisciplinary research on conservation and human health. Research guided by these propositions will allow stakeholders to determine how ecosystem-mediated strategies for health promotion compare with more conventional biomedical prevention and treatment strategies for safeguarding health.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'. © 2017 The Authors.

Ecosystem services of human-dominated watersheds and land use influences: a case study from the Dianchi Lake watershed in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Ying; Li, Bo; Müller, Felix; Chen, Weiping

2016-11-01

Watersheds provide multiple ecosystem services. Ecosystem service assessment is a promising approach to investigate human-environment interaction at the watershed scale. The spatial characteristics of ecosystem services are closely related to land use statuses in human-dominated watersheds. This study aims to investigate the effects of land use on the spatial variations of ecosystem services at the Dianchi Lake watershed in Southwest China. We investigated the spatial variations of six ecosystem services-food supply, net primary productivity (NPP), habitat quality, evapotranspiration, water yield, and nitrogen retention. These services were selected based on their significance at the Dianchi Lake watershed and the availability of their data. The quantification of these services was based on modeling, value transference, and spatial analysis in combination with biophysical and socioeconomic data. Furthermore, we calculated the values of ecosystem services provided by different land use types and quantified the correlations between ecosystem service values and land use area proportions. The results show considerable spatial variations in the six ecosystem services associated with land use influences in the Dianchi Lake watershed. The cropland and forest land use types had predominantly positive influences on food productivity and NPP, respectively. The rural residential area and forest land use types reduced and enhanced habitat quality, respectively; these influences were identical to those of evapotranspiration. Urban area and rural residential area exerted significantly positive influences on water yield. In contrast, water yield was negatively correlated with forest area proportion. Finally, cropland and forest had significantly positive and negative influences, respectively, on nitrogen retention. Our study emphasizes the importance of consideration of the influences from land use composition and distribution on ecosystem services for managing the ecosystems of

56 Hydrological Dynamics and Human Impact on Ecosystems of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

`123456789jkl''''#

Hydrological Dynamics and Human Impact on Ecosystems of Lake Tana, Northwestern. Ethiopia. 1Amare ... and lake level data were evaluated to identify change in climate and lake level. The annual ... economic importance. The total area of ...

Exploring spatial change and gravity center movement for ecosystem services value using a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and gravity model.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Yingbin; Chen, Youqi; Tang, Huajun; Yao, Yanmin; Yang, Peng; Chen, Zhongxin

2011-04-01

Spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation and change is a newly developing area of research in the field of ecology. Using the Beijing region as a study area, the authors have developed a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and implemented this to quantify and spatially differentiate ecosystem services value at 1-km grid resolution. A gravity model was developed to trace spatial change in the total ecosystem services value of the Beijing study area from a holistic point of view. Study results show that the total value of ecosystem services for the study area decreased by 19.75% during the period 1996-2006 (3,226.2739 US$×10(6) in 1996, 2,589.0321 US$×10(6) in 2006). However, 27.63% of the total area of the Beijing study area increased in ecosystem services value. Spatial differences in ecosystem services values for both 1996 and 2006 are very clear. The center of gravity of total ecosystem services value for the study area moved 32.28 km northwestward over the 10 years due to intensive human intervention taking place in southeast Beijing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should pay greater attention to ecological protection under conditions of rapid socio-economic development and increase the area of green belt in the southeastern part of Beijing.

Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariska Weijerman

Full Text Available Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated 'full regulation' scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Brainard, Russell E

2016-01-01

Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis) to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings) and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated 'full regulation' scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

Approaches to modelling hydrology and ecosystem interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Silberstein, Richard P.

2014-05-01

As the pressures of industry, agriculture and mining on groundwater resources increase there is a burgeoning un-met need to be able to capture these multiple, direct and indirect stresses in a formal framework that will enable better assessment of impact scenarios. While there are many catchment hydrological models and there are some models that represent ecological states and change (e.g. FLAMES, Liedloff and Cook, 2007), these have not been linked in any deterministic or substantive way. Without such coupled eco-hydrological models quantitative assessments of impacts from water use intensification on water dependent ecosystems under changing climate are difficult, if not impossible. The concept would include facility for direct and indirect water related stresses that may develop around mining and well operations, climate stresses, such as rainfall and temperature, biological stresses, such as diseases and invasive species, and competition such as encroachment from other competing land uses. Indirect water impacts could be, for example, a change in groundwater conditions has an impact on stream flow regime, and hence aquatic ecosystems. This paper reviews previous work examining models combining ecology and hydrology with a view to developing a conceptual framework linking a biophysically defensable model that combines ecosystem function with hydrology. The objective is to develop a model capable of representing the cumulative impact of multiple stresses on water resources and associated ecosystem function.

Modeling soil moisture memory in savanna ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Gou, S.; Miller, G. R.

2011-12-01

Antecedent soil conditions create an ecosystem's "memory" of past rainfall events. Such soil moisture memory effects may be observed over a range of timescales, from daily to yearly, and lead to feedbacks between hydrological and ecosystem processes. In this study, we modeled the soil moisture memory effect on savanna ecosystems in California, Arizona, and Africa, using a system dynamics model created to simulate the ecohydrological processes at the plot-scale. The model was carefully calibrated using soil moisture and evapotranspiration data collected at three study sites. The model was then used to simulate scenarios with various initial soil moisture conditions and antecedent precipitation regimes, in order to study the soil moisture memory effects on the evapotranspiration of understory and overstory species. Based on the model results, soil texture and antecedent precipitation regime impact the redistribution of water within soil layers, potentially causing deeper soil layers to influence the ecosystem for a longer time. Of all the study areas modeled, soil moisture memory of California savanna ecosystem site is replenished and dries out most rapidly. Thus soil moisture memory could not maintain the high rate evapotranspiration for more than a few days without incoming rainfall event. On the contrary, soil moisture memory of Arizona savanna ecosystem site lasts the longest time. The plants with different root depths respond to different memory effects; shallow-rooted species mainly respond to the soil moisture memory in the shallow soil. The growing season of grass is largely depended on the soil moisture memory of the top 25cm soil layer. Grass transpiration is sensitive to the antecedent precipitation events within daily to weekly timescale. Deep-rooted plants have different responses since these species can access to the deeper soil moisture memory with longer time duration Soil moisture memory does not have obvious impacts on the phenology of woody plants

AI techniques for optimizing multi-objective reservoir operation upon human and riverine ecosystem demands

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Wen-Ping; Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Herricks, Edwin E.

2015-11-01

Flow regime is the key driver of the riverine ecology. This study proposes a novel hybrid methodology based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for quantifying riverine ecosystems requirements and delivering suitable flow regimes that sustain river and floodplain ecology through optimizing reservoir operation. This approach addresses issues to better fit riverine ecosystem requirements with existing human demands. We first explored and characterized the relationship between flow regimes and fish communities through a hybrid artificial neural network (ANN). Then the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) was established for river flow management over the Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. The ecosystem requirement took the form of maximizing fish diversity, which could be estimated by the hybrid ANN. The human requirement was to provide a higher satisfaction degree of water supply. The results demonstrated that the proposed methodology could offer a number of diversified alternative strategies for reservoir operation and improve reservoir operational strategies producing downstream flows that could meet both human and ecosystem needs. Applications that make this methodology attractive to water resources managers benefit from the wide spread of Pareto-front (optimal) solutions allowing decision makers to easily determine the best compromise through the trade-off between reservoir operational strategies for human and ecosystem needs.

A Landscape-level Model for Ecosystem Restoration in the San Francisco Estuary and Its Watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wim Kimmerer

2005-03-01

Full Text Available The CALFED Bay-Delta Program is an ambitious effort to restore ecosystems and improve reliability of ecosystem services in California’s Central Valley. Key issues for CALFED and its Ecosystem Restoration Program (ERP include (1 meeting societal demand for multiple, potentially conflicting ecosystem services; (2 the tradeoff among more or less environmentally intrusive approaches to solving problems; (3 whether restoration should focus at the ecosystem level or on individual species; (4 the appropriate response to uncertainty; and (5 the tension between action and investigation. A long-term, landscape-scale perspective is essential for framing the scientific questions underlying these broad issues. We introduce a landscape-scale conceptual model that illustrates linkages, including material flows and animal migration, among the major ecosystem components being described in detail in a series of review papers. This model shows how linkages between ecosystem components result in remote consequences of locally applied restoration actions. The network of linkages is made more complicated by human interventions, which add components not previously a part of the landscape (e.g., salmonid hatcheries and alter or even reverse causal relations. A landscape perspective also helps identify conceptual gaps in CALFED’s restoration strategy, such as climate change and human population growth, which should be explicitly considered in forecasts of the long-term prospects for restoration. A landscape perspective is no panacea; in particular, the effects of restoration at this scale will be difficult to detect. Nevertheless, we advocate integrating investigations of processes at nested, smaller scales as an approach for evaluating effects of individual restoration actions and of the entire program. We believe CALFED and other large restoration programs will be most successful if they are able to integrate both societal expectations and scientific study at the

Ecosystem management via interacting models of political and ecological processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haas, T. C.

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The decision to implement environmental protection options is a political one. Political realities may cause a country to not heed the most persuasive scientific analysis of an ecosystem's future health. A predictive understanding of the political processes that result in ecosystem management decisions may help guide ecosystem management policymaking. To this end, this article develops a stochastic, temporal model of how political processes influence and are influenced by ecosystem processes. This model is realized in a system of interacting influence diagrams that model the decision making of a country's political bodies. These decisions interact with a model of the ecosystem enclosed by the country. As an example, a model for Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus management in Kenya is constructed and fitted to decision and ecological data.

Ecosystem Based Business Model of Smart Grid

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundgaard, Morten Raahauge; Ma, Zheng; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

2015-01-01

This paper tries to investigate the ecosystem based business model in a smart grid infrastructure and the potential of value capture in the highly complex macro infrastructure such as smart grid. This paper proposes an alternative perspective to study the smart grid business ecosystem to support...... the infrastructural challenges, such as the interoperability of business components for smart grid. So far little research has explored the business ecosystem in the smart grid concept. The study on the smart grid with the theory of business ecosystem may open opportunities to understand market catalysts. This study...... contributes an understanding of business ecosystem applicable for smart grid. Smart grid infrastructure is an intricate business ecosystem, which have several intentions to deliver the value proposition and what it should be. The findings help to identify and capture value from markets....

Upscaling key ecosystem functions across the conterminous United States by a water‐centric ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Asko Noormets; Steven G. McNulty; Erika Cohen; al. et.

2011-01-01

We developed a water‐centric monthly scale simulation model (WaSSI‐C) by integrating empirical water and carbon flux measurements from the FLUXNET network and an existing water supply and demand accounting model (WaSSI). The WaSSI‐C model was evaluated with basin‐scale evapotranspiration (ET), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE)...

A model ecosystem experiment and its computational simulation studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doi, M.

2002-01-01

Simplified microbial model ecosystem and its computer simulation model are introduced as eco-toxicity test for the assessment of environmental responses from the effects of environmental impacts. To take the effects on the interactions between species and environment into account, one option is to select the keystone species on the basis of ecological knowledge, and to put it in the single-species toxicity test. Another option proposed is to put the eco-toxicity tests as experimental micro ecosystem study and a theoretical model ecosystem analysis. With these tests, the stressors which are more harmful to the ecosystems should be replace with less harmful ones on the basis of unified measures. Management of radioactive materials, chemicals, hyper-eutrophic, and other artificial disturbances of ecosystem should be discussed consistently from the unified view point of environmental protection. (N.C.)

Improving Marine Ecosystem Models with Biochemical Tracers

Science.gov (United States)

Pethybridge, Heidi R.; Choy, C. Anela; Polovina, Jeffrey J.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

2018-01-01

Empirical data on food web dynamics and predator-prey interactions underpin ecosystem models, which are increasingly used to support strategic management of marine resources. These data have traditionally derived from stomach content analysis, but new and complementary forms of ecological data are increasingly available from biochemical tracer techniques. Extensive opportunities exist to improve the empirical robustness of ecosystem models through the incorporation of biochemical tracer data and derived indices, an area that is rapidly expanding because of advances in analytical developments and sophisticated statistical techniques. Here, we explore the trophic information required by ecosystem model frameworks (species, individual, and size based) and match them to the most commonly used biochemical tracers (bulk tissue and compound-specific stable isotopes, fatty acids, and trace elements). Key quantitative parameters derived from biochemical tracers include estimates of diet composition, niche width, and trophic position. Biochemical tracers also provide powerful insight into the spatial and temporal variability of food web structure and the characterization of dominant basal and microbial food web groups. A major challenge in incorporating biochemical tracer data into ecosystem models is scale and data type mismatches, which can be overcome with greater knowledge exchange and numerical approaches that transform, integrate, and visualize data.

Urban transitions: on urban resilience and human-dominated ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Ernstson, Henrik; van der Leeuw, Sander E; Redman, Charles L; Meffert, Douglas J; Davis, George; Alfsen, Christine; Elmqvist, Thomas

2010-12-01

Urbanization is a global multidimensional process paired with increasing uncertainty due to climate change, migration of people, and changes in the capacity to sustain ecosystem services. This article lays a foundation for discussing transitions in urban governance, which enable cities to navigate change, build capacity to withstand shocks, and use experimentation and innovation in face of uncertainty. Using the three concrete case cities--New Orleans, Cape Town, and Phoenix--the article analyzes thresholds and cross-scale interactions, and expands the scale at which urban resilience has been discussed by integrating the idea from geography that cities form part of "system of cities" (i.e., they cannot be seen as single entities). Based on this, the article argues that urban governance need to harness social networks of urban innovation to sustain ecosystem services, while nurturing discourses that situate the city as part of regional ecosystems. The article broadens the discussion on urban resilience while challenging resilience theory when addressing human-dominated ecosystems. Practical examples of harnessing urban innovation are presented, paired with an agenda for research and policy.

Characterization factors for global warming in life cycle assessment based on damages to humans and ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

De Schryver, An M; Brakkee, Karin W; Goedkoop, Mark J; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2009-03-15

Human and ecosystem health damage due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is generally poorly quantified in the life cycle assessment of products, preventing an integrated comparison of the importance of GHGs with other stressor types, such as ozone depletion and acidifying emissions. In this study, we derived new characterization factors for 63 GHGs that quantify the impact of an emission change on human and ecosystem health damage. For human health damage, the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) per unit emission related to malaria, diarrhea, malnutrition, drowning, and cardiovascular diseases were quantified. For ecosystem health damage, the Potentially Disappeared Fraction (PDF) over space and time of various species groups, including plants, butterflies, birds, and mammals, per unit emission was calculated. The influence of value choices in the modeling procedure was analyzed by defining three coherent scenarios, based on Cultural theory perspectives. It was found that the characterization factor for human health damage by carbon dioxide (CO2) ranges from 1.1 x 10(-2) to 1.8 x 10(+1) DALY per kton of emission, while the characterization factor for ecosystem damage by CO2 ranges from 5.4 x 10(-2) to 1.2 x 10(+1) disappeared fraction of species over space and time ((km2 x year)/kton), depending on the scenario chosen. The characterization factor of a GHG can change up to 4 orders of magnitude, depending on the scenario. The scenario-specific differences are mainly explained by the choice for a specific time horizon and stresses the importance of dealing with value choices in the life cycle impact assessment of GHG emissions.

Assumptions behind size-based ecosystem models are realistic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ken Haste; Blanchard, Julia L.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

2016-01-01

A recent publication about balanced harvesting (Froese et al., ICES Journal of Marine Science; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsv122) contains several erroneous statements about size-spectrum models. We refute the statements by showing that the assumptions pertaining to size-spectrum models discussed by Fro...... that there is indeed a constructive role for a wide suite of ecosystem models to evaluate fishing strategies in an ecosystem context...

Model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

1980-01-01

A linear compartment model with donor-controlled flows between compartments was designed to describe and simulate the behavior of plutonium ( 239 240 Pu) in a contaminated forest ecosystem at Oak Ridge, TN. At steady states predicted by the model, less than 0.25% of the plutonium in the ecosystem resides in biota. Soil is the major repository of plutonium in the forest, and exchanges of plutonium between soil and litter or soil and tree roots were dominant transfers affecting the ecosystem distribution of plutonium. Variation in predicted steady-state amounts of plutonium in the forest, given variability in the model parameters, indicates that our ability to develop models of plutonium transport in ecosystems should improve with greater precision in data from natural environments and a better understanding of sources of variation in plutonium data

Land-use planning for nearshore ecosystem services—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

Science.gov (United States)

Byrd, Kristin

2011-01-01

The 2,500 miles of shoreline and nearshore areas of Puget Sound, Washington, provide multiple benefits to people—"ecosystem services"—including important fishing, shellfishing, and recreation industries. To help resource managers plan for expected growth in coming decades, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center has developed the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM). Scenarios of urban growth and shoreline modifications serve as model inputs to develop alternative futures of important nearshore features such as water quality and beach habitats. Model results will support regional long-term planning decisions for the Puget Sound region.

Ecosystem Based Business Model of Smart Grid

OpenAIRE

Lundgaard, Morten Raahauge; Ma, Zheng; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

2015-01-01

This paper tries to investigate the ecosystem based business model in a smart grid infrastructure and the potential of value capture in the highly complex macro infrastructure such as smart grid. This paper proposes an alternative perspective to study the smart grid business ecosystem to support the infrastructural challenges, such as the interoperability of business components for smart grid. So far little research has explored the business ecosystem in the smart grid concept. The study on t...

Modelling the Congo basin ecosystems with a dynamic vegetation model

Science.gov (United States)

Dury, Marie; Hambuckers, Alain; Trolliet, Franck; Huynen, Marie-Claude; Haineaux, Damien; Fontaine, Corentin M.; Fayolle, Adeline; François, Louis

2014-05-01

The scarcity of field observations in some parts of the world makes difficult a deep understanding of some ecosystems such as humid tropical forests in Central Africa. Therefore, modelling tools are interesting alternatives to study those regions even if the lack of data often prevents sharp calibration and validation of the model projections. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are process-based models that simulate shifts in potential vegetation and its associated biogeochemical and hydrological cycles in response to climate. Initially run at the global scale, DVMs can be run at any spatial scale provided that climate and soil data are available. In the framework of the BIOSERF project ("Sustainability of tropical forest biodiversity and services under climate and human pressure"), we use and adapt the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) to study the Congo basin vegetation dynamics. The field campaigns have notably allowed the refinement of the vegetation representation from plant functional types (PFTs) to individual species through the collection of parameters such as the specific leaf area or the leaf C:N ratio of common tropical tree species and the location of their present-day occurrences from literature and available database. Here, we test the model ability to reproduce the present spatial and temporal variations of carbon stocks (e.g. biomass, soil carbon) and fluxes (e.g. gross and net primary productivities (GPP and NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP)) as well as the observed distribution of the studied species over the Congo basin. In the lack of abundant and long-term measurements, we compare model results with time series of remote sensing products (e.g. vegetation leaf area index (LAI), GPP and NPP). Several sensitivity tests are presented: we assess consecutively the impacts of the level at which the vegetation is simulated (PFTs or species), the spatial resolution and the initial land

Including ecosystem dynamics in risk assessment of radioactive waste in coastal regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumblad, L.; Kautsky, U.; Gilek, M.

2000-01-01

Radiation protection has mainly focused on assessing and minimising risks of negative effects on human health. Although some efforts have been made to estimate effects on non-human populations, modelling of radiation risks to other components of the ecosystem have often lead to more or less disappointing results. In this paper an ecosystem approach is suggested and exemplified with a preliminary 14 C model of a coastal Baltic ecosystem. Advantages with the proposed ecosystem approach are for example the possibility to detect important but previously neglected pathways to humans since the whole ecosystem is analysed. The results from the model indicate that a rather small share of hypothetical released 14 C would accumulate in biota due to large water exchange in the modelled area. However, modelled future scenarios imply opposite results, i.e. relatively high doses in biota, due to changes of the physical properties in the area that makes a larger accumulation possible. (author)

Freshwater Ecosystem Service Flow Model To Evaluate Regional Water Security: A Case Study In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, D.; Li, S.

2016-12-01

Freshwater service, as the most important support ecosystem service, is essential to human survival and development. Many studies have evidenced the spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services and raised the concept of ecosystem service flow. However, rather few studies quantitatively characterize the freshwater service flow. This paper aims to quantify the effect of freshwater ecosystem service flow on downstream areas in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China over 2000, 2005 and 2010. We computed the freshwater ecosystem service provision with InVEST model. We calculated freshwater ecosystem service consumption with water quota method. We simulated the freshwater ecosystem service flow using our simplified flow model and assessed the regional water security with the improved freshwater security index. The freshwater provision service mainly depends on climatic factors that cannot be influenced by management, while the freshwater consumption service is constrained by human activities. Furthermore, the decrease of water quota for agricultural, domestic and industrial water counteracts the impact of increasing freshwater demand. The analysis of freshwater ecosystem service flow reveals that the majority area of the BTH (69.2%) is affected by upstream freshwater. If freshwater ecosystem service flow is considered, the water safety areas of the whole BTH account for 66.9%, 66.1%, 71.3%, which increase 6.4%, 6.8% and 5.7% in 2000, 2005 and 2010, respectively. These results highlight the need to understand the teleconnections between distant freshwater ecosystem service provision and local freshwater ecosystem service use. This approach therefore helps managers choose specific management and investment strategies for critical upstream freshwater provisions across different regions.

Evapotranspiration Power Law in Self-Organized and Human-Managed Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, R.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

Natural systems display a profound degree of self-organization, often apparent even to the untrained eye. However, in this age of increased coupling among human and natural systems, it is unclear to what degree natural organization principles continue to govern human-managed landscapes. Here we present an emerging characteristic of terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET), one of the key components of the water cycle and energy budget, adhered to by both naturally organized and intensively managed landscapes. We find that ET variance and ET mean for ecosystems throughout the world with diverse climate conditions, vegetation structures, and land covers and land uses organize themselves according to a specific power law curve. From multi-source observations, the ET power law curve stands true through varying spatial scales, from field to region. Moreover, a phenomenon of similar ecosystems gravitating toward particular segments of the power law curve, suggests that the feature of self-optimization of ecosystems establishes the ET power law together with climatic conditions. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that landscapes persistently follow the power law curve even upon human-induced transition from rain-fed to irrigated agriculture in the American High Plains and from wetland to agricultural land in American Midwest. As such, the ET power law can be an informative tool for predicting consequences of anthropogenic disturbances to the hydrologic cycle and understanding constraints to sustainable land use.

Producer-decomposer matching in a simple model ecosystem: A network coevolutionary approach to ecosystem organization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higashi, Masahiko; Yamamura, Norio; Nakajima, Hisao; Abe, Takuya

1993-01-01

The present not is concerned with how the ecosystem maintains its energy and matter processes, and how those processes change throughout ecological and geological time, or how the constituent biota of an ecosystem maintain their life, and how ecological (species) succession and biological evolution proceed within an ecosystem. To advance further Tansky's (1976) approach to ecosystem organization, which investigated the characteristic properties of the developmental process of a model ecosystem, by applying Margalef's (1968) maximum maturity principle to derive its long term change, we seek a course for deriving the macroscopic trends along the organization process of an ecosystem as a consequence of the interactions among its biotic components and their modification of ecological traits. Using a simple ecosystem model consisting of four aggregated components (open-quotes compartmentsclose quotes) connected by nutrient flows, we investigate how a change in the value of a parameter alters the network pattern of flows and stocks, even causing a change in the value of another parameter, which in turn brings about further change in the network pattern and values of some (possible original) parameters. The continuation of this chain reaction involving feedbacks constitutes a possible mechanism for the open-quotes coevolutionclose quotes or open-quotes matchingclose quotes among flows, stocks, and parameters

Coupling ecosystems exposure to nitrogen and species sensitivity to hypoxia: modelling marine eutrophication in LCIA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Koski, Marja; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

Characterisation modelling in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) quantifies impacts of anthropogenic emissions by applying substance-specific impact potentials, or Characterisation Factors (CF), to the amount of substances emitted. Nitrogen (N) emissions from human activities enrich coastal marine...... ecosystems and promote planktonic growth that may lead to marine eutrophication impacts. Excessive algal biomass and dissolved oxygen (DO) depletion typify the ecosystem response to the nutrient input. The present novel method couples a mechanistic model of coastal biological processes that determines...... the ecosystem response (exposure) to anthropogenic N enrichment (eXposure Factor, XF [kgO2·kgN-1]) with the sensitivity of species exposed to oxygen-depleted waters (Effect Factor, EF [(PAF)·m3·kgO2-1], expressed as a Potentially Affected Fraction (PAF) of species). Thus, the coupled indicator (XF*EF, [(PAF)·m3...

A tiered approach for ecosystem services mapping

OpenAIRE

Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne; Weibel, Bettina; Rabe, Sven-Erik; Burkhard, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Mapping ecosystem services delivers essential insights into the spatial characteristics of various goods’ and services’ flows from nature to human society. It has become a central topic of science, policy, business and society – all belonging on functioning ecosystems. This textbook summarises the current state-of-the-art of ecosystem services mapping, related theory and methods, different ecosystem service quantification and modelling approaches as well as practical applications. The book...

An Exploration of Human Well-Being Bundles as Identifiers of Ecosystem Service Use Patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamann, Maike; Biggs, Reinette; Reyers, Belinda

2016-01-01

We take a social-ecological systems perspective to investigate the linkages between ecosystem services and human well-being in South Africa. A recent paper identified different types of social-ecological systems in the country, based on distinct bundles of ecosystem service use. These system types were found to represent increasingly weak direct feedbacks between nature and people, from rural "green-loop" communities to urban "red-loop" societies. Here we construct human well-being bundles and explore whether the well-being bundles can be used to identify the same social-ecological system types that were identified using bundles of ecosystem service use. Based on national census data, we found three distinct well-being bundle types that are mainly characterized by differences in income, unemployment and property ownership. The distribution of these well-being bundles approximates the distribution of ecosystem service use bundles to a substantial degree: High levels of income and education generally coincided with areas characterised by low levels of direct ecosystem service use (or red-loop systems), while the majority of low well-being areas coincided with medium and high levels of direct ecosystem service use (or transition and green-loop systems). However, our results indicate that transformations from green-loop to red-loop systems do not always entail an immediate improvement in well-being, which we suggest may be due to a time lag between changes in the different system components. Using human well-being bundles as an indicator of social-ecological dynamics may be useful in other contexts since it is based on socio-economic data commonly collected by governments, and provides important insights into the connections between ecosystem services and human well-being at policy-relevant sub-national scales.

An Exploration of Human Well-Being Bundles as Identifiers of Ecosystem Service Use Patterns.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maike Hamann

Full Text Available We take a social-ecological systems perspective to investigate the linkages between ecosystem services and human well-being in South Africa. A recent paper identified different types of social-ecological systems in the country, based on distinct bundles of ecosystem service use. These system types were found to represent increasingly weak direct feedbacks between nature and people, from rural "green-loop" communities to urban "red-loop" societies. Here we construct human well-being bundles and explore whether the well-being bundles can be used to identify the same social-ecological system types that were identified using bundles of ecosystem service use. Based on national census data, we found three distinct well-being bundle types that are mainly characterized by differences in income, unemployment and property ownership. The distribution of these well-being bundles approximates the distribution of ecosystem service use bundles to a substantial degree: High levels of income and education generally coincided with areas characterised by low levels of direct ecosystem service use (or red-loop systems, while the majority of low well-being areas coincided with medium and high levels of direct ecosystem service use (or transition and green-loop systems. However, our results indicate that transformations from green-loop to red-loop systems do not always entail an immediate improvement in well-being, which we suggest may be due to a time lag between changes in the different system components. Using human well-being bundles as an indicator of social-ecological dynamics may be useful in other contexts since it is based on socio-economic data commonly collected by governments, and provides important insights into the connections between ecosystem services and human well-being at policy-relevant sub-national scales.

Estimating the impacts of conservation on ecosystem services and poverty by integrating modeling and evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferraro, Paul J; Hanauer, Merlin M; Miteva, Daniela A; Nelson, Joanna L; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K; Nolte, Christoph; Sims, Katharine R E

2015-06-16

Scholars have made great advances in modeling and mapping ecosystem services, and in assigning economic values to these services. This modeling and valuation scholarship is often disconnected from evidence about how actual conservation programs have affected ecosystem services, however. Without a stronger evidence base, decision makers find it difficult to use the insights from modeling and valuation to design effective policies and programs. To strengthen the evidence base, scholars have advanced our understanding of the causal pathways between conservation actions and environmental outcomes, but their studies measure impacts on imperfect proxies for ecosystem services (e.g., avoidance of deforestation). To be useful to decision makers, these impacts must be translated into changes in ecosystem services and values. To illustrate how this translation can be done, we estimated the impacts of protected areas in Brazil, Costa Rica, Indonesia, and Thailand on carbon storage in forests. We found that protected areas in these conservation hotspots have stored at least an additional 1,000 Mt of CO2 in forests and have delivered ecosystem services worth at least $5 billion. This aggregate impact masks important spatial heterogeneity, however. Moreover, the spatial variability of impacts on carbon storage is the not the same as the spatial variability of impacts on avoided deforestation. These findings lead us to describe a research program that extends our framework to study other ecosystem services, to uncover the mechanisms by which ecosystem protection benefits humans, and to tie cost-benefit analyses to conservation planning so that we can obtain the greatest return on scarce conservation funds.

Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

Science.gov (United States)

Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

2011-01-01

Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Marine ecosystem modeling beyond the box: using GIS to study carbon fluxes in a coastal ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Wijnbladh, Erik; Jönsson, Bror Fredrik; Kumblad, Linda

2006-12-01

Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phytobenthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem.

Marine Ecosystem Modeling Beyond the Box: Using GIS to Study Carbon Fluxes in a Coastal Ecosystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wijnbladh, Erik; Joensson, Bror Fredrik; Kumblad, Linda

2006-01-01

Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phyto benthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem

Trialogue model for ecosystem governance.

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Hattingh, J

2007-01-01

Full Text Available form and timescale to ensure good governance. In essence, good governance promotes democratic management of ecosystems and, by inference, prudentwater resourcemanagement. Consequently, it is likely that the type of governance that occurs most often... that, unless the imperative for civic science to support democratic governance is institutionalised through policy and strategy, it is unlikely that there will be sufficient human and financial investment in civic science as a means to promote...

Modeling and Security in Cloud Ecosystems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo B. Fernandez

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Clouds do not work in isolation but interact with other clouds and with a variety of systems either developed by the same provider or by external entities with the purpose to interact with them; forming then an ecosystem. A software ecosystem is a collection of software systems that have been developed to coexist and evolve together. The stakeholders of such a system need a variety of models to give them a perspective of the possibilities of the system, to evaluate specific quality attributes, and to extend the system. A powerful representation when building or using software ecosystems is the use of architectural models, which describe the structural aspects of such a system. These models have value for security and compliance, are useful to build new systems, can be used to define service contracts, find where quality factors can be monitored, and to plan further expansion. We have described a cloud ecosystem in the form of a pattern diagram where its components are patterns and reference architectures. A pattern is an encapsulated solution to a recurrent problem. We have recently expanded these models to cover fog systems and containers. Fog Computing is a highly-virtualized platform that provides compute, storage, and networking services between end devices and Cloud Computing Data Centers; a Software Container provides an execution environment for applications sharing a host operating system, binaries, and libraries with other containers. We intend to use this architecture to answer a variety of questions about the security of this system as well as a reference to design interacting combinations of heterogeneous components. We defined a metamodel to relate security concepts which is being expanded.

The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Norden, Sara; Soederbaeck, Bjoern [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Andersson, Eva [SWECO, Stockholm (Sweden)

2008-11-15

The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the limnic ecosystems at both Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. This information may be used in the Safety Assessment and as a basis for the Environmental Impact Assessment. Three aims were set up for the report: 1) to characterize and describe the limnic ecosystems today and in the past in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas and compare these ecosystems with limnic ecosystems in other areas; 2) to evaluate and visualize major pools, fluxes and sinks of elements within the limnic ecosystems; and finally 3) to describe human impact on the limnic ecosystems. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components, water chemistry, comparisons with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 20 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in

A Systems Approach to the Estimation of Ecosystem and Human Health Stressors in Air, Land and Water

Science.gov (United States)

Cooter, E. J.; Dennis, R. L.; Bash, J. O.

2013-12-01

Nitrogen (N) and sulfur oxides (SOx) in air, land and water media are parts of tightly coupled geophysical systems resulting in multiple routes for human and ecosystem exposure. For instance, excess forms of total reactive N in water can lead to harmful algal blooms, with the depletion of oxygen and adverse impacts to aquatic ecosystem productivity in coastal estuaries. Acidic deposition can result in lost forest productivity for terrestrial ecosystem and impacts to trout and other fishery resources in inland waters. Human pulmonary health can be impaired when N and SOx in the atmosphere lead to the generation of ozone and particulate matter (PM). Atmospheric N deposition can also contribute to eutrophication of drinking water sources. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) has embarked on the development of a multi-media 'one environment' systems approach to these issues to help develop management decisions that create win-win policies. The purpose of this project is to develop a 'one environment' set of models that can inform protection of ecosystems and human health in both the current state and under future climate scenarios. The research framework focuses on three interrelated themes; coupling air quality with land use and agricultural land management, connecting the hydrosphere (i.e., coupling meteorology and hydrology) and linking the air/land/hydrosphere with ecosystem models and benefits models. We will present an overall modeling framework and then move to the presentation of on-going research results related to direct linkage of air quality with land use and agricultural land management. A modeling interface system has been developed that facilitates the simulation of field-scale agricultural land management decisions over a gridded domain at multiple grid resolutions for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using a modified version of the USDA EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model. EPIC

Great Lakes rivermouth ecosystems: scientific synthesis and management implications

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, James H.; Trebitz, Anett S.; Steinman, Alan D.; Wiley, Michael J.; Carlson Mazur, Martha; Pebbles, Victoria; Braun, Heather A.; Seelbach, Paul W.

2013-01-01

At the interface of the Great Lakes and their tributary rivers lies the rivermouths, a class of aquatic ecosystem where lake and lotic processes mix and distinct features emerge. Many rivermouths are the focal point of both human interaction with the Great Lakes and human impacts to the lakes; many cities, ports, and beaches are located in rivermouth ecosystems, and these human pressures often degrade key ecological functions that rivermouths provide. Despite their ecological uniqueness and apparent economic importance, there has been relatively little research on these ecosystems as a class relative to studies on upstream rivers or the open-lake waters. Here we present a synthesis of current knowledge about ecosystem structure and function in Great Lakes rivermouths based on studies in both Laurentian rivermouths, coastal wetlands, and marine estuarine systems. A conceptual model is presented that establishes a common semantic framework for discussing the characteristic spatial features of rivermouths. This model then is used to conceptually link ecosystem structure and function to ecological services provided by rivermouths. This synthesis helps identify the critical gaps in understanding rivermouth ecology. Specifically, additional information is needed on how rivermouths collectively influence the Great Lakes ecosystem, how human alterations influence rivermouth functions, and how ecosystem services provided by rivermouths can be managed to benefit the surrounding socioeconomic networks.

How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs

Science.gov (United States)

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Janssen, Annette B. G.; Kuiper, Jan J.; Leemans, Rik; Robson, Barbara J.; van de Leemput, Ingrid A.; Mooij, Wolf M.

2015-11-01

Despite the importance of coral reef ecosystems to the social and economic welfare of coastal communities, the condition of these marine ecosystems have generally degraded over the past decades. With an increased knowledge of coral reef ecosystem processes and a rise in computer power, dynamic models are useful tools in assessing the synergistic effects of local and global stressors on ecosystem functions. We review representative approaches for dynamically modeling coral reef ecosystems and categorize them as minimal, intermediate and complex models. The categorization was based on the leading principle for model development and their level of realism and process detail. This review aims to improve the knowledge of concurrent approaches in coral reef ecosystem modeling and highlights the importance of choosing an appropriate approach based on the type of question(s) to be answered. We contend that minimal and intermediate models are generally valuable tools to assess the response of key states to main stressors and, hence, contribute to understanding ecological surprises. As has been shown in freshwater resources management, insight into these conceptual relations profoundly influences how natural resource managers perceive their systems and how they manage ecosystem recovery. We argue that adaptive resource management requires integrated thinking and decision support, which demands a diversity of modeling approaches. Integration can be achieved through complimentary use of models or through integrated models that systemically combine all relevant aspects in one model. Such whole-of-system models can be useful tools for quantitatively evaluating scenarios. These models allow an assessment of the interactive effects of multiple stressors on various, potentially conflicting, management objectives. All models simplify reality and, as such, have their weaknesses. While minimal models lack multidimensionality, system models are likely difficult to interpret as they

Human footprints on greenhouse gas fluxes in cryogenic ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Karelin, D. V.; Goryachkin, S. V.; Zamolodchikov, D. G.; Dolgikh, A. V.; Zazovskaya, E. P.; Shishkov, V. A.; Kraev, G. N.

2017-12-01

Various human footprints on the flux of biogenic greenhouse gases from permafrost-affected soils in Arctic and boreal domains in Russia are considered. Tendencies of significant growth or suppression of soil CO2 fluxes change across types of human impact. Overall, the human impacts increase the mean value and variance of local soil CO2 flux. Human footprint on methane exchange between soil and atmosphere is mediated by drainage. However, all the types of human impact suppress the sources and increase sinks of methane to the land ecosystems. N2O flux grew under the considered types of human impact. Based on the results, we suggest that human footprint on soil greenhouse gases fluxes is comparable to the effect of climate change at an annual to decadal timescales.

Modeling net ecosystem carbon exchange of alpine grasslands with a satellite-driven model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Yan

Full Text Available Estimate of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, the balance of gross primary productivity (GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco has significant importance for studying the regional and global carbon cycles. Using models driven by satellite data and climatic data is a promising approach to estimate NEE at regional scales. For this purpose, we proposed a semi-empirical model to estimate NEE in this study. In our model, the component GPP was estimated with a light response curve of a rectangular hyperbola. The component Reco was estimated with an exponential function of soil temperature. To test the feasibility of applying our model at regional scales, the temporal variations in the model parameters derived from NEE observations in an alpine grassland ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau were investigated. The results indicated that all the inverted parameters exhibit apparent seasonality, which is in accordance with air temperature and canopy phenology. In addition, all the parameters have significant correlations with the remote sensed vegetation indexes or environment temperature. With parameters estimated with these correlations, the model illustrated fair accuracy both in the validation years and at another alpine grassland ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau. Our results also indicated that the model prediction was less accurate in drought years, implying that soil moisture is an important factor affecting the model performance. Incorporating soil water content into the model would be a critical step for the improvement of the model.

Global Human Footprint on the Linkage between Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning in Reef Fishes

Science.gov (United States)

Mora, Camilo; Aburto-Oropeza, Octavio; Ayala Bocos, Arturo; Ayotte, Paula M.; Banks, Stuart; Bauman, Andrew G.; Beger, Maria; Bessudo, Sandra; Booth, David J.; Brokovich, Eran; Brooks, Andrew; Chabanet, Pascale; Cinner, Joshua E.; Cortés, Jorge; Cruz-Motta, Juan J.; Cupul Magaña, Amilcar; DeMartini, Edward E.; Edgar, Graham J.; Feary, David A.; Ferse, Sebastian C. A.; Friedlander, Alan M.; Gaston, Kevin J.; Gough, Charlotte; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Green, Alison; Guzman, Hector; Hardt, Marah; Kulbicki, Michel; Letourneur, Yves; López Pérez, Andres; Loreau, Michel; Loya, Yossi; Martinez, Camilo; Mascareñas-Osorio, Ismael; Morove, Tau; Nadon, Marc-Olivier; Nakamura, Yohei; Paredes, Gustavo; Polunin, Nicholas V. C.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Reyes Bonilla, Héctor; Rivera, Fernando; Sala, Enric; Sandin, Stuart A.; Soler, German; Stuart-Smith, Rick; Tessier, Emmanuel; Tittensor, Derek P.; Tupper, Mark; Usseglio, Paolo; Vigliola, Laurent; Wantiez, Laurent; Williams, Ivor; Wilson, Shaun K.; Zapata, Fernando A.

2011-01-01

Difficulties in scaling up theoretical and experimental results have raised controversy over the consequences of biodiversity loss for the functioning of natural ecosystems. Using a global survey of reef fish assemblages, we show that in contrast to previous theoretical and experimental studies, ecosystem functioning (as measured by standing biomass) scales in a non-saturating manner with biodiversity (as measured by species and functional richness) in this ecosystem. Our field study also shows a significant and negative interaction between human population density and biodiversity on ecosystem functioning (i.e., for the same human density there were larger reductions in standing biomass at more diverse reefs). Human effects were found to be related to fishing, coastal development, and land use stressors, and currently affect over 75% of the world's coral reefs. Our results indicate that the consequences of biodiversity loss in coral reefs have been considerably underestimated based on existing knowledge and that reef fish assemblages, particularly the most diverse, are greatly vulnerable to the expansion and intensity of anthropogenic stressors in coastal areas. PMID:21483714

Multicompartment Ecosystem Mass Balances as a Tool for Understanding and Managing the Biogeochemical Cycles of Human Ecosystems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lawrence A. Baker

2001-01-01

Full Text Available Nitrogen remains a ubiquitous pollutant in surface and groundwater throughout the United States, despite 30 years of pollution control efforts. A detailed multicompartment N balance for the Central Arizona-Phoenix ecosystem is used to illustrate how an ecosystem-level approach can be used to develop improved N management strategies. The N balance is used to demonstrate how nitrate in pumped groundwater used for crop irrigation could be used to reduce inputs of commercial fertilizer and decrease N leaching to aquifers. Effectively managing N pollution also will require an understanding of the complex factors that control the N balance, including targeted regulations, individual human behavior, land-use conversion, and other ecosystem management practices that affect the N balance. These sometimes countervailing factors are illustrated with several scenarios of wastewater treatment technology and population growth in the Phoenix area. Management of N eventually must be coupled to management of other elements, notably carbon, phosphorus, and salts. We postulate that an ecosystem framework for pollution management will result in strategies that are more effective, fairer, and less expensive than current approaches.

Conceptual basis and spatial modelling to account for and conserve multiple ecosystem services in Telemark County, Norway

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schröter, M.

2015-01-01

Summary

Ecosystem services are defined as the contributions that ecosystems make to human well-being and they are increasingly being used as an approach to analyse the relationship between humans and ecosystems. While ecosystem services are mainstreamed, operationalization of the

The evolution of ecosystem ascendency in a complex systems based model.

Science.gov (United States)

Brinck, Katharina; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

2017-09-07

General patterns in ecosystem development can shed light on driving forces behind ecosystem formation and recovery and have been of long interest. In recent years, the need for integrative and process oriented approaches to capture ecosystem growth, development and organisation, as well as the scope of information theory as a descriptive tool has been addressed from various sides. However data collection of ecological network flows is difficult and tedious and comprehensive models are lacking. We use a hierarchical version of the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary ecology to study the relationship between structure, flow and organisation in model ecosystems, their development over evolutionary time scales and their relation to ecosystem stability. Our findings support the validity of ecosystem ascendency as a meaningful measure of ecosystem organisation, which increases over evolutionary time scales and significantly drops during periods of disturbance. The results suggest a general trend towards both higher integrity and increased stability driven by functional and structural ecosystem coadaptation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human activity selectively impacts the ecosystem roles of parrotfishes on coral reefs

KAUST Repository

Bellwood, David R.

2011-11-16

Around the globe, coral reefs and other marine ecosystems are increasingly overfished. Conventionally, studies of fishing impacts have focused on the population size and dynamics of targeted stocks rather than the broader ecosystem-wide effects of harvesting. Using parrotfishes as an example, we show how coral reef fish populations respond to escalating fishing pressure across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Based on these fish abundance data, we infer the potential impact on four key functional roles performed by parrotfishes. Rates of bioerosion and coral predation are highly sensitive to human activity, whereas grazing and sediment removal are resilient to fishing. Our results offer new insights into the vulnerability and resilience of coral reefs to the ever-growing human footprint. The depletion of fishes causes differential decline of key ecosystem functions, radically changing the dynamics of coral reefs and setting the stage for future ecological surprises. © 2011 The Royal Society.

Human activity selectively impacts the ecosystem roles of parrotfishes on coral reefs

KAUST Repository

Bellwood, David R.; Hoey, Andrew; Hughes, Terence P.

2011-01-01

Around the globe, coral reefs and other marine ecosystems are increasingly overfished. Conventionally, studies of fishing impacts have focused on the population size and dynamics of targeted stocks rather than the broader ecosystem-wide effects of harvesting. Using parrotfishes as an example, we show how coral reef fish populations respond to escalating fishing pressure across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Based on these fish abundance data, we infer the potential impact on four key functional roles performed by parrotfishes. Rates of bioerosion and coral predation are highly sensitive to human activity, whereas grazing and sediment removal are resilient to fishing. Our results offer new insights into the vulnerability and resilience of coral reefs to the ever-growing human footprint. The depletion of fishes causes differential decline of key ecosystem functions, radically changing the dynamics of coral reefs and setting the stage for future ecological surprises. © 2011 The Royal Society.

Making eco logic and models work : An integrative approach to lake ecosystem modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

2016-01-01

Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both

Earth Observation Data for Mapping and Evaluation of Ecosystem Services to Improve Human Livelihoods and Conserve Species

Science.gov (United States)

Shapiro, Aurelie C.; Bhagabati, Nirmal

2010-12-01

Mapping and evaluating ecosystem services is of increasing concern and urgency for conservation organizations such as WWF. Coupling biodiversity assessments with ecosystem services e.g., carbon sequestration, water regulation, sediment reduction, is an effective way to visualize additional financial and human benefits of conservation for decision makers. WWF is eager to apply various Earth Observation data to conservation applications for consistent mapping and monitoring of natural ecosystems and the potential impacts of their loss on humans and wildlife alike. Such examples include forest carbon mapping, integrated evaluation of ecosystem services (via the InVEST tool) and bundling endangered Tiger habitat with various ecosystem services for bundled benefits.

Assimilation of satellite color observations in a coupled ocean GCM-ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

Sarmiento, Jorge L.

1992-01-01

Monthly average coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) estimates of chlorophyll concentration were assimilated into an ocean global circulation model(GCM) containing a simple model of the pelagic ecosystem. The assimilation was performed in the simplest possible manner, to allow the assessment of whether there were major problems with the ecosystem model or with the assimilation procedure. The current ecosystem model performed well in some regions, but failed in others to assimilate chlorophyll estimates without disrupting important ecosystem properties. This experiment gave insight into those properties of the ecosystem model that must be changed to allow data assimilation to be generally successful, while raising other important issues about the assimilation procedure.

How important is diversity for capturing environmental-change responses in ecosystem models?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

2014-01-01

Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic plankton diversity. Diversity, however, may affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Here we use a global ocean...... ecosystem model that explicitly resolves phytoplankton diversity by defining subtypes within four phytoplankton functional types (PFTs). We investigate the model's ability to capture diversity effects on primary production under environmental change. An idealized scenario with a sudden reduction in vertical...... in the model, for example via trade-offs or different PFTs, thus determines the diversity effects on ecosystem functioning captured in ocean ecosystem models....

Modeling Temporal and Spatial Flows of Ecosystem Services in Chittenden County, VT

Science.gov (United States)

Voigt, B. G.; Bagstad, K.; Johnson, G.; Villa, F.

2010-12-01

This paper documents the integration of ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) with the land use change model UrbanSim to explore the impacts of current and future land use patterns on flood protection and water provision services in Chittenden County, VT. ARIES, an open source modeling platform, is particularly well-suited for measuring, mapping, and modeling the temporal and spatial flows of ecosystem services across the landscape, linking the areas of provision (sources) with human beneficiaries (users) through a spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach. UrbanSim is an open source agent-based land use model designed to facilitate a wide-range of scenarios based on user-specified behavioral assumptions, zoning regulations, and demographic, economic, and infrastructure (e.g. transportation, water, sewer, etc.) parameters. Ecosystem services travel through time and space and are susceptible to disruption and destruction from both natural and anthropogenic perturbations. The conversion of forested or agricultural land to urbanizing uses is replete with a long history of hydrologic impairment, habitat fragmentation, and the degradation of sensitive landscapes. Development decisions are predicated on the presence of landscape characteristics that meet the needs of developers and satisfy the desires of consumers, with minimal consideration of access to or effect on the provision of ecosystem services. The County houses nearly 25% of the state’s population and several employment centers that draw labor from throughout the region. Additionally, the County is expected to maintain modest residential and employment growth over the next 30 years, and will continue to serve as the state’s population and employment center. Expected future growth is likely to adversely affect the remaining farm and forest land in the County in the absence of policies to support sustainable development. We demonstrate how ARIES can be used to quantify changes in

Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Mooij, Wolf M.; Trolle, Dennis; Jeppesen, Erik; Arhonditsis, George; Belolipetsky, Pavel V.; Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B.R.; Degermendzhy, Andrey G.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Domis, Lisette N. De Senerpont; Downing, Andrea S.; Elliott, J. Alex; Ruberto, Carlos Ruberto; Gaedke, Ursula; Genova, Svetlana N.; Gulati, Ramesh D.; Hakanson, Lars; Hamilton, David P.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hoen, Jochem 't; Hulsmann, Stephan; Los, F. Hans; Makler-Pick, Vardit; Petzoldt, Thomas; Prokopkin, Igor G.; Rinke, Karsten; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Tominaga, Koji; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Wells, Scott A.; Janse, Jan H.

2010-01-01

A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative

Mitigating Adverse Effects of a Human Mission on Possible Martian Indigenous Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Lupisella, M. L.

2000-07-01

Although human beings are, by most standards, the most capable agents to search for and detect extraterrestrial life, we are also potentially the most harmful. While there has been substantial work regarding forward contamination with respect to robotic missions, the issue of potential adverse effects on possible indigenous Martian ecosystems, such as biological contamination, due to a human mission has remained relatively unexplored and may require our attention now as this presentation will try to demonstrate by exploring some of the relevant scientific questions, mission planning challenges, and policy issues. An informal, high-level mission planning decision tree will be discussed and is included as the next page of this abstract. Some of the questions to be considered are: (1) To what extent could contamination due to a human presence compromise possible indigenous life forms? (2) To what extent can we control contamination? For example, will it be local or global? (3) What are the criteria for assessing the biological status of Mars, both regionally and globally? For example, can we adequately extrapolate from a few strategic missions such as sample return missions? (4) What should our policies be regarding our mission planning and possible interaction with what are likely to be microbial forms of extraterrestrial life? (5) Central to the science and mission planning issues is the role and applicability of terrestrial analogs, such as Lake Vostok for assessing drilling issues, and modeling techniques. Central to many of the policy aspects are scientific value, international law, public concern, and ethics. Exploring this overall issue responsibly requires an examination of all these aspects and how they interrelate. A chart is included, titled 'Mission Planning Decision Tree for Mitigating Adverse Effects to Possible Indigenous Martian Ecosystems due to a Human Mission'. It outlines what questions scientists should ask and answer before sending humans to Mars.

A blueprint for mapping and modelling ecosystem services

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Crossman, N.; Burkhard, B.; Nedkov, S.; Willemen, L.L.J.; Petz, K.; Palomo, I.; Drakou, E.G.; Martín-Lopez, B.; McPhearson, T.; Boyanova, K.; Alkemade, R.; Egoh, B.; Dunbar, M.D.; Maes, J.

2013-01-01

The inconsistency in methods to quantify and map ecosystem services challenges the development of robust values of ecosystem services in national accounts and broader policy and natural resource management decision-making. In this paper we develop and test a blueprint to give guidance on modelling

Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Glynn, Pierre D.

2015-01-01

Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

Modeling dynamics of biological and chemical components of aquatic ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lassiter, R.R.

1975-05-01

To provide capability to model aquatic ecosystems or their subsystems as needed for particular research goals, a modeling strategy was developed. Submodels of several processes common to aquatic ecosystems were developed or adapted from previously existing ones. Included are submodels for photosynthesis as a function of light and depth, biological growth rates as a function of temperature, dynamic chemical equilibrium, feeding and growth, and various types of losses to biological populations. These submodels may be used as modules in the construction of models of subsystems or ecosystems. A preliminary model for the nitrogen cycle subsystem was developed using the modeling strategy and applicable submodels. (U.S.)

The role of hydrological and water quality models in the application of the ecosystem services framework for the EU Water Framework Directive

Science.gov (United States)

Hallouin, Thibault; Bruen, Michael; Feeley, Hugh B.; Christie, Michael; Bullock, Craig; Kelly, Fiona; Kelly-Quinn, Mary

2017-04-01

The hydrological cycle is intimately linked with environmental processes that are essential for human welfare in many regards including, among others, the provision of safe water from surface and subsurface waterbodies, rain-fed agricultural production, or the provision of aquatic-sourced food. As well as being a receiver of these natural benefits, the human population is also a manager of the water and other natural resources and, as such, can affect their future sustainable provision. With global population growth and climate change, both the dependence of the human population on water resources and the threat they pose to these resources are likely to intensify so that the sustainability of the coupled natural and human system is threatened. In the European Union, the Water Framework Directive is driving policy and encouraging member states to manage their water resources wisely in order to maintain or restore ecological quality. To this end, the ecosystem services framework can be a useful tool to link the requirements in terms of ecological status into more tangible descriptors, that is the ecosystem services. In the ESManage Project, existing environmental system models such as hydrological models and water quality models are used as the basis to quantify the provision of many hydrological and aquatic ecosystem services by constructing indicators for the ecosystem services from the modelled environmental variables. By allowing different management options and policies to be compared, these models can be a valuable source of information for policy makers when they are used for climate and land use scenario analyses. Not all hydrological models developed for flood forecasting are suitable for this application and inappropriate models can lead to questionable conclusions. This paper demonstrates the readily available capabilities of a specially developed catchment hydrological model coupled with a water quality model to quantify a wide range of biophysically

Ecosystem Services

Science.gov (United States)

Ecosystem goods and services are the many life-sustaining benefits we receive from nature and contribute to environmental and human health and well-being. Ecosystem-focused research will develop methods to measure ecosystem goods and services.

An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Kaplan, Isaac C; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, Wolf M; Brainard, Russell E

2015-01-01

Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP) and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1) ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2) trophic level of the community, 3) biomass of apex predators, 4) biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5) total biomass of living groups and 6) the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations), climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with other drivers

An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariska Weijerman

Full Text Available Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1 ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2 trophic level of the community, 3 biomass of apex predators, 4 biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5 total biomass of living groups and 6 the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations, climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with

Integrated modelling of ecosystem services and energy systems research

Science.gov (United States)

Agarwala, Matthew; Lovett, Andrew; Bateman, Ian; Day, Brett; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ziv, Guy

2016-04-01

The UK Government is formally committed to reducing carbon emissions and protecting and improving natural capital and the environment. However, actually delivering on these objectives requires an integrated approach to addressing two parallel challenges: de-carbonising future energy system pathways; and safeguarding natural capital to ensure the continued flow of ecosystem services. Although both emphasise benefiting from natural resources, efforts to connect natural capital and energy systems research have been limited, meaning opportunities to improve management of natural resources and meet society's energy needs could be missed. The ecosystem services paradigm provides a consistent conceptual framework that applies in multiple disciplines across the natural and economic sciences, and facilitates collaboration between them. At the forefront of the field, integrated ecosystem service - economy models have guided public- and private-sector decision making at all levels. Models vary in sophistication from simple spreadsheet tools to complex software packages integrating biophysical, GIS and economic models and draw upon many fields, including ecology, hydrology, geography, systems theory, economics and the social sciences. They also differ in their ability to value changes in natural capital and ecosystem services at various spatial and temporal scales. Despite these differences, current models share a common feature: their treatment of energy systems is superficial at best. In contrast, energy systems research has no widely adopted, unifying conceptual framework that organises thinking about key system components and interactions. Instead, the literature is organised around modelling approaches, including life cycle analyses, econometric investigations, linear programming and computable general equilibrium models. However, some consistencies do emerge. First, often contain a linear set of steps, from exploration to resource supply, fuel processing, conversion

Mapping ecosystem functions and services in Eastern Europe using global-scale data sets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schulp, C.J.E.; Alkemade, R.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Petz, K.

2012-01-01

To assess future interactions between the environment and human well-being, spatially explicit ecosystem service models are needed. Currently available models mainly focus on provisioning services and do not distinguish changes in the functioning of the ecosystem (Ecosystem Functions – ESFs) and

The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Norden, Sara; Soederbaeck, Bjoern; Andersson, Eva

2008-11-01

The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the limnic ecosystems at both Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. This information may be used in the Safety Assessment and as a basis for the Environmental Impact Assessment. Three aims were set up for the report: 1) to characterize and describe the limnic ecosystems today and in the past in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas and compare these ecosystems with limnic ecosystems in other areas; 2) to evaluate and visualize major pools, fluxes and sinks of elements within the limnic ecosystems; and finally 3) to describe human impact on the limnic ecosystems. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components, water chemistry, comparisons with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 20 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in

Transfer of radionuclides by terrestrial food products from semi-natural ecosystems to humans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howard, B.J.

1996-01-01

The potential radiological significance of radionuclide transfer to humans via foodstuffs derived from semi-natural ecosystems has become apparent since the Chernobyl accident. Foodchain models developed before this time usually did not take such transfers into account. The processes leading to contamination of food in these environments are complex and current understanding of the transfer mechanisms is incomplete. For these reasons the approach adopted in Chapter 3 is to represent, by means of aggregated parameters, the empirical relationships between ground deposits and concentration in the food product. 107 refs, 2 figs, 9 tabs

A probabilistic model of ecosystem response to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shevliakova, E.; Dowlatabadi, H.

1994-01-01

Anthropogenic activities are leading to rapid changes in land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These changes can bring about climate change typified by average global temperatures rising by 1--5 C over the next century. Climate change of this magnitude is likely to alter the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems on a large scale. Options available for dealing with such change are abatement of emissions, adaptation, and geoengineering. The integrated assessment of climate change demands that frameworks be developed where all the elements of the climate problem are present (from economic activity to climate change and its impacts on market and non-market goods and services). Integrated climate assessment requires multiple impact metrics and multi-attribute utility functions to simulate the response of different key actors/decision-makers to the actual physical impacts (rather than a dollar value) of the climate-damage vs. policy-cost debate. This necessitates direct modeling of ecosystem impacts of climate change. The authors have developed a probabilistic model of ecosystem response to global change. This model differs from previous efforts in that it is statistically estimated using actual ecosystem and climate data yielding a joint multivariate probability of prevalence for each ecosystem, given climatic conditions. The authors expect this approach to permit simulation of inertia and competition which have, so far, been absent in transfer models of continental-scale ecosystem response to global change. Thus, although the probability of one ecotype will dominate others at a given point, others would have the possibility of establishing an early foothold

Past Holocene detritism quantification and modeling from lacustrine archives in order to deconvoluate human-climate interactions on natural ecosystem over long time-scale

Science.gov (United States)

Simonneau, Anaëlle; Chapron, Emmanuel; Di Giovanni, Christian; Galop, Didier; Darboux, Frédéric

2014-05-01

Water budget is one of the main challenges to paleoclimate researchers in relation to present-day global warming and its consequences for human societies. Associated soil degradation and erosion are thereby becoming a major concern in many parts of the world and more particularly in the Alps. Moreover, humans are considered as geomorphologic agents since few thousand years and it is now recognized that such an impact on natural ecosystem profoundly modified soils properties as well as aquatic ecosystems dynamics over long-term periods. The quantification of such inference over long time-scale is therefore essential to establish new policies to reduce mechanic soil erosion, which is one of the dominant processes in Europe, and anticipate the potential consequences of future climate change on hydric erosion. The mechanical erosion of continental surfaces results from climatic forcing, but can be amplified by the anthropogenic one. We therefore suggest that quantifying and modelling soil erosion processes within comparable Holocene lacustrine archives, allows to estimate and date which and when past human activities have had an impact on soil fluxes over the last 10000 years. Based on the present-day geomorphology of the surrounding watershed and the evolution of the vegetation cover during the Holocene, we develop an interdisciplinary approach combining quantitative organic petrography (i.e. optical characterization and quantification of soil particles within lake sediments) with high-resolution seismic profiling, age-depth models on lacustrine sediment cores and soil erosional susceptibility modeling, in order to estimate the annual volume of soil eroded over the last 10000 years, and in fine to quantify the volume of human-induced soil erosion during the Holocene period. This method is applied to close but contrasted mountainous lacustrine environments from the western French Alps: lakes Blanc Huez and Paladru, sensitive to same climatic influences but where past

A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Budinich, Marko; Bourdon, Jérémie; Larhlimi, Abdelhalim; Eveillard, Damien

2017-01-01

Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs) for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA) and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA). Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity) that take place at the ecosystem scale.

Modelling the growth of Populus species using Ecosystem Demography (ED) model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, D.; Lebauer, D. S.; Feng, X.; Dietze, M. C.

2010-12-01

Hybrid poplar plantations are an important source being evaluated for biomass production. Effective management of such plantations requires adequate growth and yield models. The Ecosystem Demography model (ED) makes predictions about the large scales of interest in above- and belowground ecosystem structure and the fluxes of carbon and water from a description of the fine-scale physiological processes. In this study, we used a workflow management tool, the Predictive Ecophysiological Carbon flux Analyzer (PECAn), to integrate literature data, field measurement and the ED model to provide predictions of ecosystem functioning. Parameters for the ED ensemble runs were sampled from the posterior distribution of ecophysiological traits of Populus species compiled from the literature using a Bayesian meta-analysis approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the parameters which contribute the most to the uncertainties of the ED model output. Model emulation techniques were used to update parameter posterior distributions using field-observed data in northern Wisconsin hybrid poplar plantations. Model results were evaluated with 5-year field-observed data in a hybrid poplar plantation at New Franklin, MO. ED was then used to predict the spatial variability of poplar yield in the coterminous United States (United States minus Alaska and Hawaii). Sensitivity analysis showed that root respiration, dark respiration, growth respiration, stomatal slope and specific leaf area contribute the most to the uncertainty, which suggests that our field measurements and data collection should focus on these parameters. The ED model successfully captured the inter-annual and spatial variability of the yield of poplar. Analyses in progress with the ED model focus on evaluating the ecosystem services of short-rotation woody plantations, such as impacts on soil carbon storage, water use, and nutrient retention.

Modelling Potential Consequences of Different Geo-Engineering Treatments for the Baltic Sea Ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Schrum, C.; Daewel, U.

2017-12-01

From 1950 onwards, the Baltic Sea ecosystem suffered increasingly from eutrophication. The most obvious reason for the eutrophication is the huge amount of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) reaching the Baltic Sea from human activities. However, although nutrient loads have been decreasing since 1980, the hypoxic areas have not decreased accordingly. Thus, geo-engineering projects were discussed and evaluated to artificially ventilate the Baltic Sea deep water and suppress nutrient release from the sediments. Here, we aim at understanding the consequences of proposed geo-engineering projects in the Baltic Sea using long-term scenario modelling. For that purpose, we utilize a 3d coupled ecosystem model ECOSMO E2E, a novel NPZD-Fish model approach that resolves hydrodynamics, biogeochemical cycling and lower and higher trophic level dynamics. We performed scenario modelling that consider proposed geo-engineering projects such as artificial ventilation of Baltic Sea deep waters and phosphorus binding in sediments with polyaluminium chlorides. The model indicates that deep-water ventilation indeed suppresses phosphorus release in the first 1-4 years of treatment. Thereafter macrobenthos repopulates the formerly anoxic bottom regions and nutrients are increasingly recycled in the food web. Consequently, overall system productivity and fish biomass increases and toxic algae blooms decrease. However, deep-water ventilation has no long-lasting effect on the ecosystem: soon after completion of the ventilation process, the system turns back into its original state. Artificial phosphorus binding in sediments in contrast decreases overall ecosystem productivity through permanent removal of phosphorus. As expected it decreases bacterial production and toxic algae blooms, but it also decreases fish production substantially. Contrastingly to deep water ventilation, artificial phosphorus binding show a long-lasting effect over decades after termination of the treatment.

Understanding Complex Human Ecosystems: The Case of Ecotourism on Bonaire

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Abel

2003-12-01

Full Text Available It is suggested that ecotourism development on the island of Bonaire can be productively understood as a perturbation of a complex human ecosystem. Inputs associated with ecotourism have fueled transformations of the island ecology and sociocultural system. The results of this study indicate that Bonaire's social and economic hierarchy is approaching a new, stable systems state following a 50-yr transition begun by government and industry that stabilized with the appearance of ecotourism development and population growth. Ecotourism can be understood to have "filled in" the middle of the production hierarchy of Bonaire. Interpreted from this perspective, population growth has completed the transformation by expanding into production niches at smaller scales in the production hierarchy. Both a consequence and a cause, ecotourism has transformed the island's social structure and demography. The theory and methods applied in this case study of interdisciplinary research in the field of human ecosystems are also presented.

The Port Service Ecosystem Research Based on the Lotka-Volterra Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Wenjuan

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Under the new normal of China’s economy, the competition among the port enterprises is not only the competition of the core competence of the port, the port industry chain or the port supply chain, but also the competition of the port service ecosystem. In this paper, the concept and characteristics of the port service ecosystem is discussed, a hierarchical model of the port service ecosystem is constructed. As an extended logistic model, Lotka-Volterra model is applied to study the competitive co-evolution and mutually beneficial co-evolution of enterprises in the port service ecosystem. This paper simulates the co-evolution of enterprises in the port service ecosystem by using MATLAB programming. The simulation results show that the breadth of the niche of the enterprises is changing with the change of the competition coefficient and the coefficient of mutual benefit in the port service ecosystem. Based on that, some proposals are put forward to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the port service ecosystem.

Ecosystem and human health assessment to define environmental management strategies: The case of long-term human impacts on an Arctic lake.

Science.gov (United States)

Moiseenko, T I; Voinov, A A; Megorsky, V V; Gashkina, N A; Kudriavtseva, L P; Vandish, O I; Sharov, A N; Sharova, Yu; Koroleva, I N

2006-10-01

There are rich deposits of mineral and fossil natural resources in the Arctic, which make this region very attractive for extracting industries. Their operations have immediate and vast consequences for ecological systems, which are particularly vulnerable in this region. We are developing a management strategy for Arctic watersheds impacted by industrial production. The case study is Lake Imandra watershed (Murmansk oblast, Russia) that has exceptionally high levels of economic development and large numbers of people living there. We track the impacts of toxic pollution on ecosystem health and then--human health. Three periods are identified: (a) natural, pre-industrial state; (b) disturbed, under rapid economic development; and (c) partial recovery, during recent economic meltdown. The ecosystem is shown to transform into a qualitatively new state, which is still different from the original natural state, even after toxic loadings have substantially decreased. Fish disease where analyzed to produce and integral evaluation of ecosystem health. Accumulation of heavy metals in fish is correlated with etiology of many diseases. Dose-effect relationships are between integral water quality indices and ecosystem health indicators clearly demonstrates that existing water quality standards adopted in Russia are inadequate for Arctic regions. Health was also poor for people drinking water from the Lake. Transport of heavy metals from drinking water, into human organs, and their effect on liver and kidney diseases shows the close connection between ecosystem and human health. A management system is outlined that is based on feedback from indices of ecosystem and human health and control over economic production and/or the amount of toxic loading produced. We argue that prospects for implementation of such a system are quite bleak at this time, and that more likely we will see a continued depopulation of these Northern regions.

Towards Integration of Ecosystem and Human Health: A Novel Conceptual Framework to Operationalise Ecological Public Health and to Incorporate Distal and Proximal Effects of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Reis, S.; Fleming, L. E.; Beck, S.; Austen, M.; Morris, G.; White, M.; Taylor, T. J.; Orr, N.; Osborne, N. J.; Depledge, M.

2014-12-01

Conceptual models for problem framing in environmental (EIA) and health impact assessment (HIA) share similar concepts, but differ in their scientific or policy focus, methodologies and underlying causal chains, and the degree of complexity and scope. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework used by the European Environment Agency, the OECD and others and the Integrated Science for Society and the Environment (ISSE) frameworks are widely applied in policy appraisal and impact assessments. While DPSIR is applied across different policy domains, the ISSE framework is used in Ecosystem Services assessments. The modified Driver-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) model extends DPSIR by separating exposure from effect, adding context as a modifier of effect, and susceptibility to exposures due to socio-economic, demographic or other determinants. While continuously evolving, the application of conceptual frameworks in policy appraisals mainly occurs within established discipline boundaries. However, drivers and environmental states, as well as policy measures and actions, affect both human and ecosystem receptors. Furthermore, unintended consequences of policy actions are seldom constrained within discipline or policy silos. Thus, an integrated conceptual model is needed, accounting for the full causal chain affecting human and ecosystem health in any assessment. We propose a novel model integrating HIA methods and ecosystem services in an attempt to operationalise the emerging concept of "Ecological Public Health." The conceptual approach of the ecosystem-enriched DPSEEA model ("eDPSEEA") has stimulated wide-spread debates and feedback. We will present eDPSEEA as a stakeholder engagement process and a conceptual model, using illustrative case studies of climate change as a starting point, not a complete solution, for the integration of human and ecosystem health impact assessment as a key challenge in a rapidly changing world. Rayner G and

Assessment of Urban Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Weight Extension Decision Model in Urban Agglomeration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qian Yang

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Urban ecosystem health evaluation can assist in sustainable ecological management at a regional level. This study examined urban agglomeration ecosystem health in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River with entropy weight and extension theories. The model overcomes information omissions and subjectivity problems in the evaluation process of urban ecosystem health. Results showed that human capital and education, economic development level as well as urban infrastructure have a significant effect on the health states of urban agglomerations. The health status of the urban agglomeration’s ecosystem was not optimistic in 2013. The majority of the cities were unhealthy or verging on unhealthy, accounting for 64.52% of the total number of cities in the urban agglomeration. The regional differences of the 31 cities’ ecosystem health are significant. The cause originated from an imbalance in economic development and the policy guidance of city development. It is necessary to speed up the integration process to promote coordinated regional development. The present study will aid us in understanding and advancing the health situation of the urban ecosystem in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and will provide an efficient urban ecosystem health evaluation method that can be used in other areas.

Oceans and Human Health: Linking Ocean, Organism, and Human Health for Sustainable Management of Coastal Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Sandifer, P. A.; Trtanj, J.; Collier, T. K.

2012-12-01

Scientists and policy-makers are increasingly recognizing that sustainable coastal communities depend on healthy and resilient economies, ecosystems, and people, and that the condition or "health" of the coastal ocean and humans are intimately and inextricably connected. A wealth of ecosystem services provided by ocean and coastal environments are crucial for human survival and well being. Nonetheless, the health of coastal communities, their economies, connected ecosystems and ecosystem services, and people are under increasing threats from health risks associated with environmental degradation, climate change, and unwise land use practices, all of which contribute to growing burdens of naturally-occurring and introduced pathogens, noxious algae, and chemical contaminants. The occurrence, frequency, intensity, geographic range, and number and kinds of ocean health threats are increasing, with concomitant health and economic effects and eroding public confidence in the safety and wholesomeness of coastal environments and resources. Concerns in the research and public health communities, many summarized in the seminal 1999 NRC Report, From Monsoons to Microbes and the 2004 final report of the US Commission on Ocean Policy, resulted in establishment of a new "meta-discipline" known as Oceans and Human Health (OHH). OHH brings together practitioners in oceanography, marine biology, ecology, biomedical science, medicine, economics and other social sciences, epidemiology, environmental management, and public health to focus on water- and food-borne causes of human and animal illnesses associated with ocean and coastal systems and on health benefits of seafood and other marine products. It integrates information across multiple disciplines to increase knowledge of ocean health risks and benefits and communicate such information to enhance public safety. Recognizing the need for a comprehensive approach to ocean health threats and benefits, Congress passed the Oceans and

The role of ecological models in linking ecological risk assessment to ecosystem services in agroecosystems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Galic, N.G.; Schmolke, A.; Forbes, V.; Baveco, J.M.; Brink, van den P.J.

2012-01-01

Agricultural practices are essential for sustaining the human population, but at the same time they can directly disrupt ecosystem functioning. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) aims to estimate possible adverse effects of human activities on ecosystems and their parts. Current ERA practices,

Outdoor model simulating a Baltic Sea littoral ecosystem

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Notini, M; Nagell, B; Hagstroem, A; Grahn, O

1977-01-01

Plastic pools (surface 6.6 m/sup 2/, volume 4.2 m/sup 3/) were equipped with a flow-through system providing 2.51 min/sup -1/. Except for fish predators the main components of the flora and fauna of the Baltic littoral zone were introduced into the pools to form a model of the ecosystem. During 8 weeks the macroscopic epifauna and infauna of the bladder wrack Fucus vesiculosus L. were found to be qualitatively and quantitatively fairly stable, and the number of aerobic heterotrophic bacteria showed little variation. Oxygen concentration, temperature and pH were recorded and compared with values measured in the littoral zone. The results indicate good agreement between the characters of the model system and of the natural littoral ecosystem. This together with the observed stability and the possibilities for controlling and measuring the conditions in the system makes us believe that the model is a valuable tool for assessing toxic effects on the littoral ecosystem.

Ecological effects of ionizing radiation on population and ecosystem: a computational model ecosystem study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doi, Masahiro; Fuma, Shoichi; Ishii, Nobuyuki; Sakashita, Tetsuya; Miyamoto, Kiriko; Takeda, Hiroshi; Kawabata, Zenichiro

2003-01-01

Ecosystem is a self-sustaining system of complexity, and their responses to the impacts are synergistic and subjected to the demographic stochasticity of the species, environmental stochasticity and randomness. Environmental fate and effects of radiation has ranged from observable DNA damage of the cell to the fare on tissues, individual, population, community and ecosystems. The quantitative, systematic individual-based model, SIM-COSM was developed to simulate impacts of radiation exposure and other toxicants on an aquatic microbial ecosystem (microcosm). The microcosm consists of heterotroph ciliate protozoa (Tetrahymena thermophila B) as a consumer, autotroph flagellate algae (Euglena gracilis Z) as a producer and saprotroph bacteria (Escherichia coli DH5) as a decomposer. The symbiosis among microbes is self-organized by realizing material cycle and sustained for more than 2 years after inoculation. The system can not afford to lose any one of the microbes to maintain its sustainability. Experimental ecotoxicological tests for (a) gamma radiation, (b) Manganese ions and (c) Gadolinium are summarized. Population dynamics of microbes in Microcosm and its computer simulations by SIM-COSM are shown together in a figure. Population dynamics in Microcosm and SIM-COSM exposed to 500 Gy of gamma-radiation at 50 days after inoculation are shown also in a figure. To take the effects on the interactions between species and environment into account, one option is to put the ecotoxicity tests as experimental micro ecosystem study and theoretical model ecosystem analysis. (M. Suetake)

A comparison of tools for modeling freshwater ecosystem services.

Science.gov (United States)

Vigerstol, Kari L; Aukema, Juliann E

2011-10-01

Interest in ecosystem services has grown tremendously among a wide range of sectors, including government agencies, NGO's and the business community. Ecosystem services entailing freshwater (e.g. flood control, the provision of hydropower, and water supply), as well as carbon storage and sequestration, have received the greatest attention in both scientific and on-the-ground applications. Given the newness of the field and the variety of tools for predicting water-based services, it is difficult to know which tools to use for different questions. There are two types of freshwater-related tools--traditional hydrologic tools and newer ecosystem services tools. Here we review two of the most prominent tools of each type and their possible applications. In particular, we compare the data requirements, ease of use, questions addressed, and interpretability of results among the models. We discuss the strengths, challenges and most appropriate applications of the different models. Traditional hydrological tools provide more detail whereas ecosystem services tools tend to be more accessible to non-experts and can provide a good general picture of these ecosystem services. We also suggest gaps in the modeling toolbox that would provide the greatest advances by improving existing tools. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marko Budinich

Full Text Available Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA. Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity that take place at the ecosystem scale.

Linking hydrology, ecosystem function, and livelihood sustainability in African papyrus wetlands using a Bayesian Network Model

Science.gov (United States)

van Dam, A.; Gettel, G. M.; Kipkemboi, J.; Rahman, M. M.

2011-12-01

reduced to about 40% and in the wet season increased to about 85%. Both ecosystem functions and livelihood sustainability were most sensitive to flooding and the human pressure, notably the area of crop conversion, grazing pressure, and papyrus harvest. Flooded conditions limit cropping, livestock herding and vegetation harvesting but have a strong positive effect on ecosystem function. Preliminary results suggest that the effects of economic and policy development on ecosystem function and livelihood sustainability were negligible, but more data on these aspects will be included in further model development. The advantage of this modeling approach, which integrates data from hydrological, ecological, and socio-economic studies, is that it highlights the relative effect of hydrologic conditions and socio-economic pressures on ecosystem function. This model is static, however, with long-term changes in climate and exploitation levels superimposed on seasonal hydrology dynamics. Further work should address this issue as well as further constrain probabilities at each node as field research continues.

COMPARING THE UTILITY OF MULTIMEDIA MODELS FOR HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL EXPOSURE ANALYSIS: TWO CASES

Science.gov (United States)

A number of models are available for exposure assessment; however, few are used as tools for both human and ecosystem risks. This discussion will consider two modeling frameworks that have recently been used to support human and ecological decision making. The study will compare ...

Study on residues of 14C-Fenitrothion in a model rice-fish ecosystem and in a field rice-fish ecosystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Zhongliang; Wang Huaxin; Guo Dazhi; Chen Zhiyu; Wu Suchueng

1993-01-01

Residues of 14 C-fenitrothion in a model rice-fish ecosystem and field rice-fish ecosystem were studied. When equal amounts of the pesticide were applied, the extractable residues in brown rice (equivalent to 34.3±1.9 μg/kg fenitrothion) and rice stems and leaves (20.9±1.5 μg/kg) of the model rice-fish ecosystem were 10-15 times higher than that of the field rice-fish ecosystem (4.48±0.13 μg/kg and 1.27±0.34 μg/kg respectively). Residues in upper part of the soil (6.50±0.1--8.10±0.2 μg/kg) and lower part of the soil (1.30±0.1--1.50±0.1 μg/kg) of the model rice-fish ecosystem were 10-40 times higher than that of the field rice-fish ecosystem (0.17±0.01 μg/kg). The extractable residues in paddy water of the model ecosystem (0.30 ± 0.01 μg/kg) were similar to that of the field ecosystem (0.20±0.02 μg/kg). When the fenitrothion was sprayed on the rice plants, residues in brown rice, fish body, soil and paddy water were lower than those when the pesticide was spread on the surface of the soil. (author). 4 refs, 2 tabs

Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schröter, D.; Cramer, W.; Leemans, R.; Prentice, I.C.; Araujo, M.B.; Arnell, N.W.; Bondeau, A.; Brugmann, H.; Carter, T.R.; Gracia, C.A.; Vega-Leinert, de la A.C.; Erhard, M.; Ewert, F.; Glendining, M.; House, J.I.; Kankaanpää, S.; Klein, R.J.T.; Lavorel, S.; Lindner, M.; Metzger, M.J.; Meyer, J.; Mitchell, T.; Reginster, I.; Rounsevell, M.; Sabate, S.; Stich, S.; Smith, B.; Smith, J.; Smith, P.; Sykes, M.T.; Thonicke, K.; Thuiller, W.; Tuck, G.; Zaehle, S.; Zierl, B.

2005-01-01

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in

Conservation threats due to human-caused increases in fire frequency in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Syphard, Alexandra D; Radeloff, Volker C; Hawbaker, Todd J; Stewart, Susan I

2009-06-01

Periodic wildfire is an important natural process in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, but increasing fire recurrence threatens the fragile ecology of these regions. Because most fires are human-caused, we investigated how human population patterns affect fire frequency. Prior research in California suggests the relationship between population density and fire frequency is not linear. There are few human ignitions in areas with low population density, so fire frequency is low. As population density increases, human ignitions and fire frequency also increase, but beyond a density threshold, the relationship becomes negative as fuels become sparser and fire suppression resources are concentrated. We tested whether this hypothesis also applies to the other Mediterranean-climate ecosystems of the world. We used global satellite databases of population, fire activity, and land cover to evaluate the spatial relationship between humans and fire in the world's five Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Both the mean and median population densities were consistently and substantially higher in areas with than without fire, but fire again peaked at intermediate population densities, which suggests that the spatial relationship is complex and nonlinear. Some land-cover types burned more frequently than expected, but no systematic differences were observed across the five regions. The consistent association between higher population densities and fire suggests that regardless of differences between land-cover types, natural fire regimes, or overall population, the presence of people in Mediterranean-climate regions strongly affects the frequency of fires; thus, population growth in areas now sparsely settled presents a conservation concern. Considering the sensitivity of plant species to repeated burning and the global conservation significance of Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, conservation planning needs to consider the human influence on fire frequency. Fine-scale spatial

AQUATOX coupled foodweb model for ecosystem risk assessment of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in lake ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Jingling

2014-01-01

The AQUATOX model considers the direct toxic effects of chemicals and their indirect effects through foodwebs. For this study, the AQUATOX model was applied to evaluating the ecological risk of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in a highly anthropogenically disturbed lake-Baiyangdian Lake. Calibration and validation results indicated that the model can adequately describe the dynamics of 18 biological populations. Sensitivity analysis results suggested that the model is highly sensitive to temperature limitation. PBDEs risk estimate results demonstrate that estimated risk for natural ecosystems cannot be fully explained by single species toxicity data alone. The AQUATOX model could provide a good basis in ascertaining ecological protection levels of “chemicals of concern” for aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, AQUATOX can potentially be used to provide necessary information corresponding to early warning and rapid forecasting of pollutant transport and fate in the management of chemicals that put aquatic ecosystems at risk. - Highlights: • AQUATOX model incorporates direct toxic effects and indirect ecological effects. • Ecological risk of PBDEs was assessed by the AQUATOX model. • The model could help determine ecological threshold of “chemicals of concern”. - Capsule abstract: Application of the AQUATOX model to assess the direct and indirect ecological risk of PBDEs

A compartment model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

1978-01-01

A linear compartment donor-controlled model was designed to describe and simulate the behaviour of plutonium ( 239 , 240 Pu) in a contaminated deciduous forest ecosystem at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. At steady states predicted by the model, less than 0.25% of the Pu in the ecosystem resides in forest biota. Soil is the major repository of Pu in the forest, and reciprocal exchanges of Pu between soil and litter or soil and tree roots were dominant transfers affecting the ecosystem distribution of Pu. Variation in predicted steady state amounts of Pu in the forest, given variability in the model parameters, indicated that ones ability to develop reliable models of Pu transport in ecosystems will improve with greater precision in data from natural environments and a better understanding of sources of variation in Pu data. (author)

Human impacts on riparian ecosystems of the Middle Rio Grande Valley during historic times

Science.gov (United States)

Frank E. Wozniak

1996-01-01

The development of irrigation agriculture in historic times has profoundly impacted riparian ecosystems in the Middle Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. A vital relationship has existed between water resources and settlement in the semi-arid Southwest since prehistoric times. Levels of technology have influenced human generated changes in the riparian ecosystems of the...

On Man and Ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Brookfield, Harold

1982-01-01

Distinctions between natural ecosystems and human ecosystems are misleading. Natural and social sciences can be integrated through the concept of a "human-use ecosystem," in which social scientists analyze the community, household, and individual, and natural scientists analyze the land. Includes a case study of St. Kitts. (KC)

Impact Of Human Activities On Ecosystem In Rivers State, Nigeria ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study was to assess the percent sample population size of people involved in selected human economic activities and the impact on ecosystem in Rivers State. The data for this study was obtained from a sample size of 1000 respondents who were purposively selected from the study area. Purposive sample was used ...

Ecosystem services altered by human changes in the nitrogen cycle: A new perspective for assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Human alteration of the nitrogen (N) cycle has produced benefits for health and well-being, but excess N has altered many ecosystems and degraded air and water quality. US regulations mandate protection of the environment in terms that directly connect to ecosystem services. Here...

Predicting interactions among fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification in a marine system with whole-ecosystem models.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffith, Gary P; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Gorton, Rebecca; Richardson, Anthony J

2012-12-01

An important challenge for conservation is a quantitative understanding of how multiple human stressors will interact to mitigate or exacerbate global environmental change at a community or ecosystem level. We explored the interaction effects of fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification over time on 60 functional groups of species in the southeastern Australian marine ecosystem. We tracked changes in relative biomass within a coupled dynamic whole-ecosystem modeling framework that included the biophysical system, human effects, socioeconomics, and management evaluation. We estimated the individual, additive, and interactive effects on the ecosystem and for five community groups (top predators, fishes, benthic invertebrates, plankton, and primary producers). We calculated the size and direction of interaction effects with an additive null model and interpreted results as synergistic (amplified stress), additive (no additional stress), or antagonistic (reduced stress). Individually, only ocean acidification had a negative effect on total biomass. Fishing and ocean warming and ocean warming with ocean acidification had an additive effect on biomass. Adding fishing to ocean warming and ocean acidification significantly changed the direction and magnitude of the interaction effect to a synergistic response on biomass. The interaction effect depended on the response level examined (ecosystem vs. community). For communities, the size, direction, and type of interaction effect varied depending on the combination of stressors. Top predator and fish biomass had a synergistic response to the interaction of all three stressors, whereas biomass of benthic invertebrates responded antagonistically. With our approach, we were able to identify the regional effects of fishing on the size and direction of the interacting effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Human ecology and environmentalism: Two different approaches to the relationships ecosystem/culture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leon Sicard, Tomas

2001-01-01

A comparative analysis of the human ecology focus versus the environmental dimension analysis, emphasizing that the first one does not have theoretical instruments to adequately consider the human action inside the ecosystems, while the second one considers the concept of culture as an explanation of the human niche and then of the environmental problem. It ends with thoughts about the environmental or ecologist conception that is discussed in the Colombian peace negotiations

Evaluating the Governance Model of Hardware-Dependent Software Ecosystems – A Case Study of the Axis Ecosystem

OpenAIRE

Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per; Matilda, Lantz; Oskar, Weijden; Munir, Hussan

2014-01-01

Ecosystem governance becomes gradually more relevant for a set of companies or actors characterized by symbiotic relations evolved on the top of a technological platform, i.e. a software ecosystem. In this study, we focus on the governance of a hardware-dependent software ecosystem. More specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) softw...

Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

1998-03-01

The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man. 42 refs, 3 tabs, 9 figs.

Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

1998-03-01

The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man

Growing population and ecosystem change increase human schistosomiasis around Lake Malaŵi.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Bocxlaer, Bert; Albrecht, Christian; Stauffer, Jay R

2014-05-01

Multiple anthropogenic environmental stressors with reinforcing effects to the deterioration of ecosystem stability can obscure links between ecosystem change and the prevalence of infectious diseases. Incomplete understanding may lead to ineffective public health and disease control strategies, as appears to be the case with increased urogenital schistosomiasis in humans around Lake Malaŵi over recent decades. Sedimentation and eutrophication help explain historical changes in intermediate host range and parasite transmission. Hence, control strategies should account for abiotic changes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Urban ecosystem services: A review].

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Qi-zheng; Huang, Gan-lin; Wu, Jian-guo

2015-04-01

Maintaining and improving ecosystem services in urban areas and human well-being are essential for sustainable development and therefore constitute an important topic in urban ecology. Here we reviewed studies on ecosystem services in urban areas. Based on the concept and classification of urban ecosystem services, we summarized characteristics of urban ecosystem services, including the human domination, high demand of ecosystem services in urban areas, spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services supply and demand in urban areas, multi-services of urban green infrastructures, the socio-economic dimension of ecosystem services supply and ecosystem disservices in urban areas. Among different urban ecosystem services, the regulating service and cultural service are particularly indispensable to benefit human health. We pointed out that tradeoffs among different types of ecosystem services mostly occur between supportive service and cultural service, as well as regulating service and cultural service. In particular, we emphasized the relationship between landscape design (i.e. green infrastructure) and ecosystem services supply. Finally, we discussed current gaps to link urban ecosystem services studies to landscape design and management and pointed out several directions for future research in urban ecosystem services.

Future directions of ecosystem science

Science.gov (United States)

Baron, Jill S.; Galvin, Kathleen A.

1990-01-01

Scientific knowledge about ecosystem structure and function has expanded greatly during the past few decades. Terrestrial and aquatic nutrient cycling, ecosystem energetics, population dynamics, belowground processes, and food webs have been studied at the plot, stand, watershed, and landscape levels at many locations around the globe. Ideas about terrestrial-atmospheric interactions and human interference in these processes have changed dramatically. There is new appreciation of the need to incorporate into ecosystem studies the interactions between human populations and the ecosystem, not only because humans affect ecosystem processes, but because these systems support human populations (Glantz 1988, Holden 1988, Parry et al. 1988, WCED 1987). Recent advances in ecosystem science are due, in part, to technological improvements in computing power, new laboratory and field physical and chemical analytical techniques, and satellite imagery for remote sensing of Earth's structure and dynamics. Modeling and geographic information systems have provided the capability for integrating multiple data sets with process simulations to generate hypotheses about regional ecosystem function. Concurrent with these scientific developments has been a growing concern about the links between the health of the environment and world-wide industrial, land, and resource-management practices. Environmental damage at the local level was widely recognized in the 1960s, prompting the environmental movement of that decade. Regional environmental problems with multiple effects and politically difficult solutions have been perceived more recently; the issue of acidic deposition provides an example of such a second-generation concern (Clark and Holling 1985). Today there is a growing awareness of global-scale environmental degradation brought about by the combined actions of all peoples on Earth (Clark 1989, Woodmansee et al. 1988). The three levels of environmental concern--local, regional

Analysis of Reptile Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services within ...

Science.gov (United States)

A focus for resource management, conservation planning, and environmental decision analysis has been mapping and quantifying biodiversity and ecosystem services. The challenge has been to integrate ecology with economics to better understand the effects of human policies and actions and their subsequent impacts on human well-being and ecosystem function. Biodiversity is valued by humans in varied ways, and thus is an important input to include in assessing the benefits of ecosystems to humans. Some biodiversity metrics more clearly reflect ecosystem services (e.g., game species, threatened and endangered species), whereas others may indicate indirect and difficult to quantify relationships to services (e.g., taxa richness and cultural value). In the present study, we identify and map reptile biodiversity and ecosystem services metrics. The importance of reptiles to biodiversity and ecosystems services is not often described. We used species distribution models for reptiles in the conterminous United States from the U.S. Geological Survey’s Gap Analysis Program. We focus on species richness metrics including all reptile species richness, taxa groupings of lizards, snakes and turtles, NatureServe conservation status (G1, G2, G3) species, IUCN listed reptiles, threatened and endangered species, Partners in Amphibian and Reptile Conservation listed reptiles, and rare species. These metrics were analyzed with the Protected Areas Database of the United States to

Ocean Futures Under Ocean Acidification, Marine Protection, and Changing Fishing Pressures Explored Using a Worldwide Suite of Ecosystem Models

OpenAIRE

Erik Olsen; Isaac C. Kaplan; Cameron Ainsworth; Gavin Fay; Sarah Gaichas; Robert Gamble; Raphael Girardin; Cecilie H. Eide; Thomas F. Ihde; Hem Nalini Morzaria-Luna; Hem Nalini Morzaria-Luna; Hem Nalini Morzaria-Luna; Kelli F. Johnson; Marie Savina-Rolland; Howard Townsend

2018-01-01

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of the ocean considers all impacts on and uses of marine and coastal systems. In recent years, there has been a heightened interest in EBM tools that allow testing of alternative management options and help identify tradeoffs among human uses. End-to-end ecosystem modeling frameworks that consider a wide range of management options are a means to provide integrated solutions to the complex ocean management problems encountered in EBM. Here, we leverage the glo...

Comparing the Applicability of Commonly Used Hydrological Ecosystem Services Models for Integrated Decision-Support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Lüke

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Different simulation models are used in science and practice in order to incorporate hydrological ecosystem services in decision-making processes. This contribution compares three simulation models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a traditional hydrological model and two ecosystem services models, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model and the Resource Investment Optimization System model. The three models are compared on a theoretical and conceptual basis as well in a comparative case study application. The application of the models to a study area in Nicaragua reveals that a practical benefit to apply these models for different questions in decision-making generally exists. However, modelling of hydrological ecosystem services is associated with a high application effort and requires input data that may not always be available. The degree of detail in temporal and spatial variability in ecosystem service provision is higher when using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool compared to the two ecosystem service models. In contrast, the ecosystem service models have lower requirements on input data and process knowledge. A relationship between service provision and beneficiaries is readily produced and can be visualized as a model output. The visualization is especially useful for a practical decision-making context.

Modelling impacts of second generation bioenergy production on Ecosystem Services in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Henner, Dagmar; Smith, Pete; Davies, Christian; McNamara, Niall

2016-04-01

Bioenergy crops are an important source of renewable energy and are a possible mechanism to mitigate global climate warming, by replacing fossil fuel energy with higher greenhouse gas emissions. There is, however, uncertainty about the impacts of the growth of bioenergy crops on ecosystem services. This uncertainty is further enhanced by the unpredictable climate change currently going on. The goal of this project is to develop a comprehensive model that covers high impact, policy relevant ecosystem services at a Continental scale including biodiversity and pollination, water and air security, erosion control and soil security, GHG emissions, soil C and cultural services like tourism value. The technical distribution potential and likely yield of second generation energy crops, such as Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) with willow, poplar, eucalyptus and other broadleaf species and Short Rotation Forestry (SRF), is currently being modelled using ECOSSE, DayCent, SalixFor and MiscanFor, and ecosystem models will be used to examine the impacts of these crops on ecosystem services. The project builds on models of energy crop production, biodiversity, soil impacts, greenhouse gas emissions and other ecosystem services, and on work undertaken in the UK on the ETI-funded ELUM project (www.elum.ac.uk). In addition, methods like water footprint tools, tourism value maps and ecosystem valuation tools and models (e.g. InVest, TEEB database, GREET LCA Model, World Business Council for Sustainable Development corporate ecosystem valuation, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Ecosystem Services Framework) will be utilised. Research will focus on optimisation of land use change feedbacks on above named ecosystem services, impact on food security, land management practices and impacts from climate change. We will present results for GHG emissions and soil organic carbon change after different land use change scenarios (e.g. arable to Miscanthus, forest to SRF), and

Ecosystem-based fishery management: a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nguyen, Thanh Viet

  An ecosystem approach means different things to different people. As a result the concept of ecosystem-based fishery management is evolving and it has no universal definition or consistent application. As regards ecosystem modeling, most economic models of fishery ignore the linkages to lower...... trophic levels. In particular, environmental data and other bottom-up information is widely disregarded. The objective of this paper is to provide a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models relating to ecosystem-based fishery management....

Examining Ecological and Ecosystem Level Impacts of Aquatic Invasive Species in Lake Michigan Using An Ecosystem Productivity Model, LM-Eco

Science.gov (United States)

Ecological and ecosystem-level impacts of aquatic invasive species in Lake Michigan were examined using the Lake Michigan Ecosystem Model (LM-Eco). The LM-Eco model includes a detailed description of trophic levels and their interactions within the lower food web of Lake Michiga...

Optimal foraging in marine ecosystem models: selectivity, profitability and switching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Visser, Andre W.; Fiksen, Ø.

2013-01-01

ecological mechanics and evolutionary logic as a solution to diet selection in ecosystem models. When a predator can consume a range of prey items it has to choose which foraging mode to use, which prey to ignore and which ones to pursue, and animals are known to be particularly skilled in adapting...... to the preference functions commonly used in models today. Indeed, depending on prey class resolution, optimal foraging can yield feeding rates that are considerably different from the ‘switching functions’ often applied in marine ecosystem models. Dietary inclusion is dictated by two optimality choices: 1...... by letting predators maximize energy intake or more properly, some measure of fitness where predation risk and cost are also included. An optimal foraging or fitness maximizing approach will give marine ecosystem models a sound principle to determine trophic interactions...

Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

Science.gov (United States)

Lokupitiya, E.; Denning, A. Scott; Schaefer, K.; Ricciuto, D.; Anderson, R.; Arain, M. A.; Baker, I.; Barr, A. G.; Chen, G.; Chen, J.M.; Ciais, P.; Cook, D.R.; Dietze, M.C.; El Maayar, M.; Fischer, M.; Grant, R.; Hollinger, D.; Izaurralde, C.; Jain, A.; Kucharik, C.J.; Li, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, L.; Matamala, R.; Peylin, P.; Price, D.; Running, S. W.; Sahoo, A.; Sprintsin, M.; Suyker, A.E.; Tian, H.; Tonitto, Christina; Torn, M.S.; Verbeeck, Hans; Verma, S.B.; Xue, Y.

2016-01-01

Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fed sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO2 seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.

Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lokupitiya, E.; Denning, A. S.; Schaefer, K.; Ricciuto, D.; Anderson, R.; Arain, M. A.; Baker, I.; Barr, A. G.; Chen, G.; Chen, J. M.; Ciais, P.; Cook, D. R.; Dietze, M.; El Maayar, M.; Fischer, M.; Grant, R.; Hollinger, D.; Izaurralde, C.; Jain, A.; Kucharik, C.; Li, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, L.; Matamala, R.; Peylin, P.; Price, D.; Running, S. W.; Sahoo, A.; Sprintsin, M.; Suyker, A. E.; Tian, H.; Tonitto, C.; Torn, M.; Verbeeck, Hans; Verma, S. B.; Xue, Y.

2016-06-03

Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fed sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO₂ seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.

Activation of the operational ecohydrodynamic model (3D CEMBS - the ecosystem module

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaromir Jakacki

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The paper describes the ecohydrodynamic predictive model - the ecosystem module - for assessing the state of the Baltic marine environment and the Baltic ecosystem. The Baltic Sea model 3D CEMBS (the Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea is based on the Community Earth System Model, which was adopted for the Baltic Sea as a coupled sea-ice-ecosystem model. The 3D CEMBS model uses: (i hydrodynamic equations describing water movement, (ii thermodynamic equations, (iii equations describing the concentration distribution of chemical variables in the sea, and (iv equations describing the exchange of matter between individual groups of organisms and their environment that make allowance for the kinetics of biochemical processes. The ecosystem model consists of 11 main components: three classes of phytoplankton (small phytoplankton, large phytoplankton represented mainly by diatoms and summer species, mostly cyanobacteria expressed in units of carbon and chlorophyll a as separate variables, zooplankton, pelagic detritus, dissolved oxygen and nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate and silicate. In operational mode, 48-hour atmospheric forecasts provided by the UM model from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Warsaw University (ICM are used. All model forecasts are available on the website http://deep.iopan.gda.pl/CEMBaltic/new_lay/index.php. The results presented in this paper show that the 3D CEMBS model is operating correctly.

A general predictive model for estimating monthly ecosystem evapotranspiration

Science.gov (United States)

Ge Sun; Karrin Alstad; Jiquan Chen; Shiping Chen; Chelcy R. Ford; al. et.

2011-01-01

Accurately quantifying evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for modelling regional-scale ecosystem water balances. This study assembled an ET data set estimated from eddy flux and sapflow measurements for 13 ecosystems across a large climatic and management gradient from the United States, China, and Australia. Our objectives were to determine the relationships among...

Advancing coupled human-earth system models: The integrated Earth System Model Project

Science.gov (United States)

Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Thornton, P. E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Janetos, A. C.; Jones, A.; Mao, J.; Chini, L. P.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Shi, X.

2012-12-01

As human and biogeophysical models develop, opportunities for connections between them evolve and can be used to advance our understanding of human-earth systems interaction in the context of a changing climate. One such integration is taking place with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). A multi-disciplinary, multi-institution team has succeeded in integrating the GCAM integrated assessment model of human activity into CESM to dynamically represent the feedbacks between changing climate and human decision making, in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The first applications of this capability have focused on the feedbacks between climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and human decisions affecting future land use change, which are in turn connected to human decisions about energy systems and bioenergy production. These experiments have been conducted in the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, one of four pathways of future radiative forcing being used in CMIP5, which constrains future human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from energy and land activities to stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 -eq) by 2100. When this pathway is run in GCAM with the climate feedback on terrestrial productivity from CESM, there are implications for both the land use and energy system changes required for stabilization. Early findings indicate that traditional definitions of radiative forcing used in scenario development are missing a critical component of the biogeophysical consequences of land use change and their contribution to effective radiative forcing. Initial full coupling of the two global models has important implications for how climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems changes the dynamics of future land use change for agriculture and forestry, particularly in the context of a climate mitigation policy designed to reduce emissions from land use as well as energy systems

Complexity of human and ecosystem interactions in an agricultural landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Coupe, Richard H.; Barlow, Jeannie R.; Capel, Paul D.

2012-01-01

The complexity of human interaction in the commercial agricultural landscape and the resulting impacts on the ecosystem services of water quality and quantity is largely ignored by the current agricultural paradigm that maximizes crop production over other ecosystem services. Three examples at different spatial scales (local, regional, and global) are presented where human and ecosystem interactions in a commercial agricultural landscape adversely affect water quality and quantity in unintended ways in the Delta of northwestern Mississippi. In the first example, little to no regulation of groundwater use for irrigation has caused declines in groundwater levels resulting in loss of baseflow to streams and threatening future water supply. In the second example, federal policy which subsidizes corn for biofuel production has encouraged many producers to switch from cotton to corn, which requires more nutrients and water, counter to national efforts to reduce nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico and exacerbating groundwater level declines. The third example is the wholesale adoption of a system for weed control that relies on a single chemical, initially providing many benefits and ultimately leading to the widespread occurrence of glyphosate and its degradates in Delta streams and necessitating higher application rates of glyphosate as well as the use of other herbicides due to increasing weed resistance. Although these examples are specific to the Mississippi Delta, analogous situations exist throughout the world and point to the need for change in how we grow our food, fuel, and fiber, and manage our soil and water resources.

The Limits of Acclimation of land plants in a Terrestrial Ecosystems Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kothavala, Zavareh

2014-05-01

In this study, we examine the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle and the ability of different plant types to acclimate to a changing climate at the centennial scale using a global ecosystems model with updated biogeochemical processes related to moisture, carbon, and nitrogen. Elevated level of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) increases CO2 fertilization, resulting in more CO2 uptake by vegetation, whereas the concomitant warming increases autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration, releasing CO2 to the atmosphere. Additionally, warming will enhance photosynthesis if current temperatures are below the optimal temperature for plant growth, while it will reduce photosynthesis if current temperatures are above the optimal temperature for plant growth. We present a series of ensemble simulations to evaluate the ability of plants to acclimate to changing conditions over the last century and how this affects the terrestrial carbon sink. A set of experiments related to (a) the varying relationship between CO2 fertilization and the half saturation constant, (b) the factors related to gross primary productivity and maintenance respiration, and (c) the variables related to heterotrophic respiration, were conducted with thirteen plant functional types. The experiments were performed using the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) with a present-day vegetation distribution without the effects of natural or human disturbance, and a closed Nitrogen cycle, at a half-degree resolution over the globe. The experiment design consisted of eight scenarios that are consistent with past and future ecosystem conditions, presented in other scientific studies. The significance of model trends related to runoff, soil moisture, soil carbon, Net Primary Productivity (NPP), crop yield, and Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) for different seasons, as well as surface temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure, and photosynthetically active radiation are analyzed for various ecosystems at the global

Development and application of an interactive climate-ecosystem model system

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

CHEN Ming; D. Pollard

2003-01-01

A regional climate-ecosystem model system is developed in this study. It overcomes the weakness in traditional one-way coupling models and enables detailed description of interactive process between climate and natural ecosystem. It is applied to interaction study between monsoon climate and ecosystem in East Asia, with emphasis on future climate and ecosystem change scenario forced by doubled CO2. The climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO2 in Jianghuai and the Yangzi River valley, but it becomes warmer and drier in inland areas of northern and northwestern China. The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. Northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. The strongest vegetation response to climate change occurs in northern China and the weakest in southern China. Vegetation feedbacks intensify warming and reduce drying due to increased CO2 during summer in northern China. Generally, vegetation-climate interactions are much stronger in northern China than in southern China.

Ecosystem-based approach for the marine environment and the position of humans : Lessons from the EU natura 2000 regime

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bastmeijer, Cornelis; Langlet, David; Rayfuse, Rosemary

2018-01-01

In policy documents and the literature it has often been emphasised that the concept of ecosystem-based management includes human use of natural resources as humans are also part of the ecosystem. This chapter aims to contribute to the broader discussion of what this consideration should mean for

Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow

1999-01-01

No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...

Mapping Ecosystem Services

OpenAIRE

Georgiev,Teodor; Burkhard,Benjamin; Maes,Joachim

2017-01-01

Ecosystem services are the contributions of ecosystem structure and function (in combination with other inputs) to human well-being. That means, humankind is strongly dependent on well-functioning ecosystems and natural capital that are the base for a constant flow of ecosystem services from nature to society. Therefore ecosystem services have the potential to become a major tool for policy and decision making on global, national, regional and local scales. Possible applications are manifold:...

Epidemiology of Brucella infection in the human, livestock and wildlife interface in the Katavi-Rukwa ecosystem, Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Assenga, Justine A; Matemba, Lucas E; Muller, Shabani K; Malakalinga, Joseph J; Kazwala, Rudovick R

2015-08-08

Brucellosis is a zoonosis of public health importance worldwide. In Tanzania, the disease is underreported due to insufficient awareness, inadequate diagnostic protocols, including lack of appropriate reagents for diagnosis. Livestock and wildlife are considered potential sources of infection to humans; however, the role played by these carriers in the epidemiology of the disease in the ecosystems in Tanzania is not fully understood. The objective of this study was to establish the prevalence of anti-Brucella antibodies in humans, wildlife and livestock; and molecular prevalence of Brucella spp in cattle and goats in the Katavi- Rukwa ecosystem. Anti-Brucella antibodies were detected in humans at 0.6 % (95 % CI: 0.1, 2.1 %); cattle at 6.8 % (95 % CI: 5.4, 8.5 %), goats at 1.6 % (95 % CI: 0.4, 4.1 %) and buffaloes at 7.9 % (95 % CI: 1.7, 21.4 %). One of the two sampled lions tested positive. Cattle had a significantly higher prevalence of anti-Brucella antibodies as compared to goats (P Brucella infection. Eight (3.5 %) out of 231 milk samples tested were positive for Brucella spp on Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR), and Brucella abortus biovar 1 was detected in cattle milk. However, no Brucella spp were detected in goat milk. This study has shown the presence of anti- Brucella antibodies in humans, livestock, and wildlife in the Katavi- Rukwa ecosystem. Transmission of the infection between wildlife, livestock and humans is likely to continue due to increasing human activities in the human wildlife interface. This information is an important contribution to public health policy development in the human wildlife interface of the Katavi- Rukwa ecosystem.

Mapping and modelling ecosystem services for science, policy and practice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Burkhard, B.; Crossman, N.; Nedkov, S.; Petz, K.; Alkemade, R.

2013-01-01

Ecosystem services are a significant research and policy topic and there are many modelling and mapping approaches aimed at understanding the stocks, demands and flows of ecosystem services on different spatial and temporal scales. The integration of geo-biophysical processes and structure

Ecosystem Demography Model: Scaling Vegetation Dynamics Across South America

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of...

Modelling carbon cycle of agro-forest ecosystems in Lombardy (Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colombo R

2009-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper we present a methodology for the estimation of Gross Primary Production (GPP, Net Primary Production (NPP and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP for the main agricultural and forest ecosystems of the Lombardia Region (Italy. The MOD17 model was parameterized according to the different agro-forestry ecosystems and applied at regional scale by using satellite data with a spatial resolution of 250m. The high spatial resolution along with fine classification agro-forestry ecosystems has allowed to accurately analyze the carbon budget of an extremely fragmented and complex environment such as the Lombardia Region. Modeling results showed the role of the forests in the carbon budget at regional scale and represent important information layer for the spatial analysis and for inferring the inter-annual variability of carbon sequestration due to impacts of extreme events and recent climate change (e.g., drought, heat wave, flooding, fires.

Ecosystem Demography Model: Scaling Vegetation Dynamics Across South America

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of South America...

A methodology for ecosystem-scale modeling of selenium

Science.gov (United States)

Presser, T.S.; Luoma, S.N.

2010-01-01

The main route of exposure for selenium (Se) is dietary, yet regulations lack biologically based protocols for evaluations of risk. We propose here an ecosystem-scale model that conceptualizes and quantifies the variables that determinehow Se is processed from water through diet to predators. This approach uses biogeochemical and physiological factors from laboratory and field studies and considers loading, speciation, transformation to particulate material, bioavailability, bioaccumulation in invertebrates, and trophic transfer to predators. Validation of the model is through data sets from 29 historic and recent field case studies of Se-exposed sites. The model links Se concentrations across media (water, particulate, tissue of different food web species). It can be used to forecast toxicity under different management or regulatory proposals or as a methodology for translating a fish-tissue (or other predator tissue) Se concentration guideline to a dissolved Se concentration. The model illustrates some critical aspects of implementing a tissue criterion: 1) the choice of fish species determines the food web through which Se should be modeled, 2) the choice of food web is critical because the particulate material to prey kinetics of bioaccumulation differs widely among invertebrates, 3) the characterization of the type and phase of particulate material is important to quantifying Se exposure to prey through the base of the food web, and 4) the metric describing partitioning between particulate material and dissolved Se concentrations allows determination of a site-specific dissolved Se concentration that would be responsible for that fish body burden in the specific environment. The linked approach illustrates that environmentally safe dissolved Se concentrations will differ among ecosystems depending on the ecological pathways and biogeochemical conditions in that system. Uncertainties and model sensitivities can be directly illustrated by varying exposure

Assessment of coastal management options by means of multilayered ecosystem models

Science.gov (United States)

Nobre, Ana M.; Ferreira, João G.; Nunes, João P.; Yan, Xiaojun; Bricker, Suzanne; Corner, Richard; Groom, Steve; Gu, Haifeng; Hawkins, Anthony J. S.; Hutson, Rory; Lan, Dongzhao; Silva, João D. Lencart e.; Pascoe, Philip; Telfer, Trevor; Zhang, Xuelei; Zhu, Mingyuan

2010-03-01

This paper presents a multilayered ecosystem modelling approach that combines the simulation of the biogeochemistry of a coastal ecosystem with the simulation of the main forcing functions, such as catchment loading and aquaculture activities. This approach was developed as a tool for sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. A key feature is to simulate management scenarios that account for changes in multiple uses and enable assessment of cumulative impacts of coastal activities. The model was applied to a coastal zone in China with large aquaculture production and multiple catchment uses, and where management efforts to improve water quality are under way. Development scenarios designed in conjunction with local managers and aquaculture producers include the reduction of fish cages and treatment of wastewater. Despite the reduction in nutrient loading simulated in three different scenarios, inorganic nutrient concentrations in the bay were predicted to exceed the thresholds for poor quality defined by Chinese seawater quality legislation. For all scenarios there is still a Moderate High to High nutrient loading from the catchment, so further reductions might be enacted, together with additional decreases in fish cage culture. The model predicts that overall, shellfish production decreases by 10%-28% using any of these development scenarios, principally because shellfish growth is being sustained by the substances to be reduced for improvement of water quality. The model outcomes indicate that this may be counteracted by zoning of shellfish aquaculture at the ecosystem level in order to optimize trade-offs between productivity and environmental effects. The present case study exemplifies the value of multilayered ecosystem modelling as a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and for the adoption of ecosystem approaches for marine resource management. This modelling approach can be applied worldwide, and may be particularly useful for the application of

Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li

2016-05-01

As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.

Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model

KAUST Repository

Triantafyllou, G.; Yao, F.; Petihakis, G.; Tsiaras, K. P.; Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2014-01-01

The Red Sea exhibits complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamics, which vary both in time and space. These dynamics have been explored through the development and application of a 3-D ecosystem model. The simulation system comprises two off-line coupled submodels: the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), both adapted for the Red Sea. The results from an annual simulation under climatological forcing are presented. Simulation results are in good agreement with satellite and in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the Red Sea ecosystem. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the Red Sea ecosystem functioning, including the exchange with the Gulf of Aden, which is a major driving mechanism for the whole Red Sea ecosystem and the winter overturning taking place in the north. Some model limitations, mainly related to the dynamics of the extended reef system located in the southern part of the Red Sea, which is not currently represented in the model, still need to be addressed.

Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model

KAUST Repository

Triantafyllou, G.

2014-03-01

The Red Sea exhibits complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamics, which vary both in time and space. These dynamics have been explored through the development and application of a 3-D ecosystem model. The simulation system comprises two off-line coupled submodels: the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), both adapted for the Red Sea. The results from an annual simulation under climatological forcing are presented. Simulation results are in good agreement with satellite and in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the Red Sea ecosystem. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the Red Sea ecosystem functioning, including the exchange with the Gulf of Aden, which is a major driving mechanism for the whole Red Sea ecosystem and the winter overturning taking place in the north. Some model limitations, mainly related to the dynamics of the extended reef system located in the southern part of the Red Sea, which is not currently represented in the model, still need to be addressed.

Lake and wetland ecosystem services measuring water storage and local climate regulation

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Christina P.; Jiang, Bo; Bohn, Theodore J.; Lee, Kai N.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Ma, Dongchun; Ouyang, Zhiyun

2017-04-01

Developing interdisciplinary methods to measure ecosystem services is a scientific priority, however, progress remains slow in part because we lack ecological production functions (EPFs) to quantitatively link ecohydrological processes to human benefits. In this study, we tested a new approach, combining a process-based model with regression models, to create EPFs to evaluate water storage and local climate regulation from a green infrastructure project on the Yongding River in Beijing, China. Seven artificial lakes and wetlands were established to improve local water storage and human comfort; evapotranspiration (ET) regulates both services. Managers want to minimize the trade-off between water losses and cooling to sustain water supplies while lowering the heat index (HI) to improve human comfort. We selected human benefit indicators using water storage targets and Beijing's HI, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model to determine the change in ET from the new ecosystems. We created EPFs to quantify the ecosystem services as marginal values [Δfinal ecosystem service/Δecohydrological process]: (1) Δwater loss (lake evaporation/volume)/Δdepth and (2) Δsummer HI/ΔET. We estimate the new ecosystems increased local ET by 0.7 mm/d (20.3 W/m2) on the Yongding River. However, ET rates are causing water storage shortfalls while producing no improvements in human comfort. The shallow lakes/wetlands are vulnerable to drying when inflow rates fluctuate, low depths lead to higher evaporative losses, causing water storage shortfalls with minimal cooling effects. We recommend managers make the lakes deeper to increase water storage, and plant shade trees to improve human comfort in the parks.

An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, W.M.; Brainard, Russell E.

2015-01-01

Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly

An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, R.; Mooij, W.M.; Brainard, Russell E.

2015-01-01

Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly

Analyzing, Modelling, and Designing Software Ecosystems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manikas, Konstantinos

as the software development and distribution by a set of actors dependent on each other and the ecosystem. We commence on the hypothesis that the establishment of a software ecosystem on the telemedicine services of Denmark would address these issues and investigate how a software ecosystem can foster...... the development, implementation, and use of telemedicine services. We initially expand the theory of software ecosystems by contributing to the definition and understanding of software ecosystems, providing means of analyzing existing and designing new ecosystems, and defining and measuring the qualities...... of software ecosystems. We use these contributions to design a software ecosystem in the telemedicine services of Denmark with (i) a common platform that supports and promotes development from different actors, (ii) high software interaction, (iii) strong social network of actors, (iv) robust business...

Improving ecosystem service frameworks to address wicked problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn K. Davies

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Complex problems often result from the multiple interactions between human activities and ecosystems. The interconnected nature of ecological and social systems should be considered if these "wicked problems" are to be addressed. Ecosystem service approaches provide an opportunity to link ecosystem function with social values, but in practice the essential role that social dynamics play in the delivery of outcomes remains largely unexplored. Social factors such as management regimes, power relationships, skills, and values, can dramatically affect the definition and delivery of ecosystem services. Input from a diverse group of stakeholders improves the capacity of ecosystem service approaches to address wicked problems by acknowledging diverse sets of values and accounting for conflicting world views. Participatory modeling can incorporate both social and ecological dynamics into decision making that involves stakeholders, but is itself a complex social undertaking that may not yield precise or predictable outcomes. We explore the efficacy of different types of participatory modeling in relation to the integration of social values into ecosystem services frameworks and the generation of four important elements of social capital needed to address wicked problems: enhancing social learning and capacity building; increasing transparency; mediating power; and building trust. Our findings indicate that mediated modeling, group mapping, and mental/conceptual modeling are likely to generate elements of social capital that can improve ecosystem service frameworks. Participatory simulation, system dynamic modeling, and Bayesian belief networks, if utilized in isolation, were found to have a low likelihood of generating the social capital needed to improve ecosystem services frameworks. Scenario planning, companion modeling, group model building, and participatory mapping all generate a moderate to high level of social capital elements that improve the

Semantic Support for Complex Ecosystem Research Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Klawonn, M.; McGuinness, D. L.; Pinheiro, P.; Santos, H. O.; Chastain, K.

2015-12-01

As ecosystems come under increasing stresses from diverse sources, there is growing interest in research efforts aimed at monitoring, modeling, and improving understanding of ecosystems and protection options. We aimed to provide a semantic infrastructure capable of representing data initially related to one large aquatic ecosystem research effort - the Jefferson project at Lake George. This effort includes significant historical observational data, extensive sensor-based monitoring data, experimental data, as well as model and simulation data covering topics including lake circulation, watershed runoff, lake biome food webs, etc. The initial measurement representation has been centered on monitoring data and related provenance. We developed a human-aware sensor network ontology (HASNetO) that leverages existing ontologies (PROV-O, OBOE, VSTO*) in support of measurement annotations. We explicitly support the human-aware aspects of human sensor deployment and collection activity to help capture key provenance that often is lacking. Our foundational ontology has since been generalized into a family of ontologies and used to create our human-aware data collection infrastructure that now supports the integration of measurement data along with simulation data. Interestingly, we have also utilized the same infrastructure to work with partners who have some more specific needs for specifying the environmental conditions where measurements occur, for example, knowing that an air temperature is not an external air temperature, but of the air temperature when windows are shut and curtains are open. We have also leveraged the same infrastructure to work with partners more interested in modeling smart cities with data feeds more related to people, mobility, environment, and living. We will introduce our human-aware data collection infrastructure, and demonstrate how it uses HASNetO and its supporting SOLR-based search platform to support data integration and semantic browsing

A community-based framework for aquatic ecosystem models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trolle, D.; Hamilton, D.P.; Hipsey, M.R.; Bolding, K.; Bruggeman, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Janse, J.H.; Nielsen, A.; Jeppesen, E.; Elliott, J.A.; Makler-Pick, V.; Petzoldt, T.; Rinke, K.; Flindt, M.R.; Arhonditsis, G.B.; Gal, G.; Bjerring, R.; Tominaga, K.; Hoen, 't J.; Downing, A.S.; Marques, D.M.; Fragoso, C.R.; Sondergaard, M.; Hanson, P.C.

2012-01-01

Here, we communicate a point of departure in the development of aquatic ecosystem models, namely a new community-based framework, which supports an enhanced and transparent union between the collective expertise that exists in the communities of traditional ecologists and model developers. Through a

Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, A.B.G.; Gerla, D.J.

2015-01-01

Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality

Intelligent spatial ecosystem modeling using parallel processors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maxwell, T.; Costanza, R.

1993-01-01

Spatial modeling of ecosystems is essential if one's modeling goals include developing a relatively realistic description of past behavior and predictions of the impacts of alternative management policies on future ecosystem behavior. Development of these models has been limited in the past by the large amount of input data required and the difficulty of even large mainframe serial computers in dealing with large spatial arrays. These two limitations have begun to erode with the increasing availability of remote sensing data and GIS systems to manipulate it, and the development of parallel computer systems which allow computation of large, complex, spatial arrays. Although many forms of dynamic spatial modeling are highly amenable to parallel processing, the primary focus in this project is on process-based landscape models. These models simulate spatial structure by first compartmentalizing the landscape into some geometric design and then describing flows within compartments and spatial processes between compartments according to location-specific algorithms. The authors are currently building and running parallel spatial models at the regional scale for the Patuxent River region in Maryland, the Everglades in Florida, and Barataria Basin in Louisiana. The authors are also planning a project to construct a series of spatially explicit linked ecological and economic simulation models aimed at assessing the long-term potential impacts of global climate change

Assessing the Effectiveness of Payments for Ecosystem Services: an Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaodong Chen

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Payments for ecosystem services (PES have increasingly been implemented to protect and restore ecosystems worldwide. The effectiveness of conservation investments in PES may differ under alternative policy scenarios and may not be sustainable because of uncertainties in human responses to policies and dynamic human-nature interactions. To assess the impacts of these interactions on the effectiveness of PES programs, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model: human and natural interactions under policies (HANIP. We used HANIP to study the effectiveness of China's Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP and alternative policy scenarios in a coupled human-nature system, China's Wolong Nature Reserve, where indigenous people's use of fuelwood affects forests. We estimated the effects of the current NFCP, which provides a cash payment, and an alternative payment scenario that provides an electricity payment by comparing forest dynamics under these policies to forest dynamics under a scenario in which no payment is provided. In 2007, there were 337 km² of forests in the study area of 515 km². Under the baseline projection in which no payment is provided, the forest area is expected to be 234 km² in 2030. Under the current NFCP, there are likely to be 379 km² of forests in 2030, or an increase of 145 km² of forests to the baseline projection. If the cash payment is replaced with an electricity payment, there are likely to be 435 km² of forests in 2030, or an increase of 201 km² of forests to the baseline projection. However, the effectiveness of the NFCP may be threatened by the behavior of newly formed households if they are not included in the payment scheme. In addition, the effects of socio-demographic factors on forests will also differ under different policy scenarios. Human and natural interactions under policies (HANIP and its modeling framework may also be used to assess the effectiveness of many other PES programs around

ESTIMAP: A GIS-BASED MODEL TO MAP ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Zulian

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Policies of the European Union which affect the use or protection of natural resources increasingly need spatial data on the supply, the flow and the demand of ecosystem services. The model ESTIMAP was developed to this purpose. ESTIMAP departs from land cover and land use maps to which it adds other spatial information with the objective to map various ecosystem services. This study introduces the ESTIMAP map as tool to support the mapping and modelling of ecosystem services at European scale. Examples are provided for three regulating ecosystem services, air quality regulation, coastal protection, and pollination and one cultural ecosystem services, recreation. 

Modelling radiocesium fluxes in forest ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaw, G.; Kliashtorin, A.; Mamikhin, S.; Shcheglov, A.; Rafferty, B.; Dvornik, A.; Zhuchenko, T.; Kuchma, N.

1996-01-01

Monitoring of radiocesium inventories and fluxes has been carried out in forest ecosystems in Ukraine, Belarus and Ireland to determine distributions and rates of migration. This information has been used to construct and calibrate mathematical models which are being used to predict the likely longevity of contamination of forests and forest products such as timber following the Chernobyl accident

Measuring and Mapping the Topography of the Florida Everglades for Ecosystem Restoration

Science.gov (United States)

Desmond, Gregory B.

2003-01-01

One of the major issues facing ecosystem restoration and management of the Greater Everglades is the availability and distribution of clean, fresh water. The South Florida ecosystem encompasses an area of approximately 28,000 square kilometers and supports a human population that exceeds 5 million and is continuing to grow. The natural systems of the Kissimmee-Okeechobee-Everglades watershed compete for water resources primarily with the region's human population and urbanization, and with the agricultural and tourism industries. Surface water flow modeling and ecological modeling studies are important means of providing scientific information needed for ecosystem restoration planning and modeling. Hydrologic and ecological models provide much-needed predictive capabilities for evaluating management options for parks, refuges, and land acquisition and for understanding the impacts of land management practices in surrounding areas. These models require various input data, including elevation data that very accurately define the topography of the Florida Everglades.

Assessing ecosystem response to multiple disturbances and climate change in South Africa using ground- and satellite-based measurements and model

Science.gov (United States)

Kutsch, W. L.; Falge, E. M.; Brümmer, C.; Mukwashi, K.; Schmullius, C.; Hüttich, C.; Odipo, V.; Scholes, R. J.; Mudau, A.; Midgley, G.; Stevens, N.; Hickler, T.; Scheiter, S.; Martens, C.; Twine, W.; Iiyambo, T.; Bradshaw, K.; Lück, W.; Lenfers, U.; Thiel-Clemen, T.; du Toit, J.

2015-12-01

Sub-Saharan Africa currently experiences rapidly growing human population, intrinsically tied to substantial changes in land use on shrubland, savanna and mixed woodland ecosystems due to over-exploitation. Significant conversions driving degradation, affecting fire frequency and water availability, and fueling climate change are expected to increase in the immediate future. However, measured data of greenhouse gas emissions as affected by land use change are scarce to entirely lacking from this region. The project 'Adaptive Resilience of Southern African Ecosystems' (ARS AfricaE) conducts research and develops scenarios of ecosystem development under climate change, for management support in conservation or for planning rural area development. This will be achieved by (1) creation of a network of research clusters (paired sites with natural and altered vegetation) along an aridity gradient in South Africa for ground-based micrometeorological in-situ measurements of energy and matter fluxes, (2) linking biogeochemical functions with ecosystem structure, and eco-physiological properties, (3) description of ecosystem disturbance (and recovery) in terms of ecosystem function such as carbon balance components and water use efficiency, (4) set-up of individual-based models to predict ecosystem dynamics under (post) disturbance managements, (5) combination with long-term landscape dynamic information derived from remote sensing and aerial photography, and (6) development of sustainable management strategies for disturbed ecosystems and land use change. Emphasis is given on validation (by a suite of field measurements) of estimates obtained from eddy covariance, model approaches and satellite derivations.

Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorner, W; Spachinger, K; Metzka, R; Porter, M

2008-01-01

Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

Linear compartment model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

1977-01-01

Systems ecology techniques have been useful in simulating the fate and dynamics of radionuclides in forest ecosystems. The applications of systems models in this context are twofold: projection of the time-dependent distribution of radioisotopes among various ecosystems components, and manipulation of the modeled system to determine the sensitivity of components to variation in transfer coefficients and, thereby, identify critical fluxes affecting system behavior. The present paper describes a systems model that projects the possible fate of plutonium in a deciduous forest ecosystem. The isotopes of interest are 239 Pu and 240 Pu which have physical half lives of 2.44 x 10 4 and 6540 years, respectively. These isotopes are indistinguishable by alpha spectrometry hence 239 Pu is used to refer to both

Modeling Heterogeneous Fishing Fleet in an Ecosystem Based Management Context

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hutniczak, Barbara

The rapid pace of climate change and increased human disturbance of ecosystems in the Arctic is bringing urgency to concern over non-native species introductions and their potential threats to the marine environment and its economic productivity, where before environmental conditions served...

Comparative analysis of marine ecosystems: workshop on predator-prey interactions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bailey, Kevin M.; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Hunsicker, Mary

2010-01-01

in marine ecosystems was held at the Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA on 16–18 March 2010. The meeting brought together scientists from diverse fields of expertise including theoretical ecology, animal behaviour, fish and seabird ecology, statistics, fisheries science and ecosystem modelling......Climate and human influences on marine ecosystems are largely manifested by changes in predator–prey interactions. It follows that ecosystem-based management of the world's oceans requires a better understanding of food web relationships. An international workshop on predator–prey interactions...

Small diversity effects on ocean primary production under environmental change in a diversity-resolving ocean ecosystem model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

2013-01-01

Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic diversity. Diversity, however, can affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Using a global ocean ecosystem model...... the diversity effects on ecosystem functioning captured in ocean ecosystem models....

Fine-Scale Cartography of Human Impacts along French Mediterranean Coasts: A Relevant Map for the Management of Marine Ecosystems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florian Holon

Full Text Available Ecosystem services provided by oceans and seas support most human needs but are threatened by human activities. Despite existing maps illustrating human impacts on marine ecosystems, information remains either large-scale but rough and insufficient for stakeholders (1 km² grid, lack of data along the coast or fine-scale but fragmentary and heterogeneous in methodology. The objectives of this study are to map and quantify the main pressures exerted on near-coast marine ecosystems, at a large spatial scale though in fine and relevant resolution for managers (one pixel = 20 x 20 m. It focuses on the French Mediterranean coast (1,700 km of coastline including Corsica at a depth of 0 to 80 m. After completing and homogenizing data presently available under GIS on the bathymetry and anthropogenic pressures but also on the seabed nature and ecosystem vulnerability, we provide a fine modeling of the extent and impacts of 10 anthropogenic pressures on marine habitats. The considered pressures are man-made coastline, boat anchoring, aquaculture, urban effluents, industrial effluents, urbanization, agriculture, coastline erosion, coastal population and fishing. A 1:10 000 continuous habitat map is provided considering 11 habitat classes. The marine bottom is mostly covered by three habitats: infralittoral soft bottom, Posidonia oceanica meadows and circalittoral soft bottom. Around two thirds of the bottoms are found within medium and medium high cumulative impact categories. Seagrass meadows are the most impacted habitats. The most important pressures (in area and intensity are urbanization, coastal population, coastal erosion and man-made coastline. We also identified areas in need of a special management interest. This work should contribute to prioritize environmental needs, as well as enhance the development of indicators for the assessment of the ecological status of coastal systems. It could also help better apply and coordinate management measures

Fine-Scale Cartography of Human Impacts along French Mediterranean Coasts: A Relevant Map for the Management of Marine Ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Holon, Florian; Mouquet, Nicolas; Boissery, Pierre; Bouchoucha, Marc; Delaruelle, Gwenaelle; Tribot, Anne-Sophie; Deter, Julie

2015-01-01

Ecosystem services provided by oceans and seas support most human needs but are threatened by human activities. Despite existing maps illustrating human impacts on marine ecosystems, information remains either large-scale but rough and insufficient for stakeholders (1 km² grid, lack of data along the coast) or fine-scale but fragmentary and heterogeneous in methodology. The objectives of this study are to map and quantify the main pressures exerted on near-coast marine ecosystems, at a large spatial scale though in fine and relevant resolution for managers (one pixel = 20 x 20 m). It focuses on the French Mediterranean coast (1,700 km of coastline including Corsica) at a depth of 0 to 80 m. After completing and homogenizing data presently available under GIS on the bathymetry and anthropogenic pressures but also on the seabed nature and ecosystem vulnerability, we provide a fine modeling of the extent and impacts of 10 anthropogenic pressures on marine habitats. The considered pressures are man-made coastline, boat anchoring, aquaculture, urban effluents, industrial effluents, urbanization, agriculture, coastline erosion, coastal population and fishing. A 1:10 000 continuous habitat map is provided considering 11 habitat classes. The marine bottom is mostly covered by three habitats: infralittoral soft bottom, Posidonia oceanica meadows and circalittoral soft bottom. Around two thirds of the bottoms are found within medium and medium high cumulative impact categories. Seagrass meadows are the most impacted habitats. The most important pressures (in area and intensity) are urbanization, coastal population, coastal erosion and man-made coastline. We also identified areas in need of a special management interest. This work should contribute to prioritize environmental needs, as well as enhance the development of indicators for the assessment of the ecological status of coastal systems. It could also help better apply and coordinate management measures at a relevant

'Ecological value added' in an integrated ecosystem-economy model. An indicator for sustainability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kratena, Kurt

2004-01-01

This paper sets up an input-output system of the relevant ecosystem flows that determine the carbon cycle in the global ecosystem. Introducing energy as the value added component in the ecosystem allows to calculate ecosystem prices expressed in 'energy values'. Linking the ecosystem with the economy in an integrated input-output model then allows to calculate prices of economic activities and of ecosystem activities. In analogy to the 'Ecological Footprint', where productive land is needed to absorb anthropogenic emissions, in this integrated input-output model additional carbon sinks are introduced for emission absorption. These carbon sinks need solar energy input, i.e. 'ecological value added'. Emission absorption as well as GDP therefore become activities valued in the numeraire of the integrated system, i.e.'energy values'. From that sustainability indicators can be derived

Modeled responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO2: a comparison of simulations by the biogeochemistry models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP).

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Yude; Melillo, Jerry M; McGuire, A David; Kicklighter, David W; Pitelka, Louis F; Hibbard, Kathy; Pierce, Lars L; Running, Steven W; Ojima, Dennis S; Parton, William J; Schimel, David S

1998-04-01

Although there is a great deal of information concerning responses to increases in atmospheric CO 2 at the tissue and plant levels, there are substantially fewer studies that have investigated ecosystem-level responses in the context of integrated carbon, water, and nutrient cycles. Because our understanding of ecosystem responses to elevated CO 2 is incomplete, modeling is a tool that can be used to investigate the role of plant and soil interactions in the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated CO 2 . In this study, we analyze the responses of net primary production (NPP) to doubled CO 2 from 355 to 710 ppmv among three biogeochemistry models in the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), Century, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). For the conterminous United States, doubled atmospheric CO 2 causes NPP to increase by 5% in Century, 8% in TEM, and 11% in BIOME-BGC. Multiple regression analyses between the NPP response to doubled CO 2 and the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of biomes or grid cells indicate that there are negative relationships between precipitation and the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 for all three models. In contrast, there are different relationships between temperature and the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 for the three models: there is a negative relationship in the responses of BIOME-BGC, no relationship in the responses of Century, and a positive relationship in the responses of TEM. In BIOME-BGC, the NPP response to doubled CO 2 is controlled by the change in transpiration associated with reduced leaf conductance to water vapor. This change affects soil water, then leaf area development and, finally, NPP. In Century, the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 is controlled by changes in decomposition rates associated with increased soil moisture that results from reduced evapotranspiration. This change affects nitrogen availability for plants, which

A Conceptual Model of Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers and Their Influence on the Prince William Sound, Alaska, Ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Cummins, Kenneth W; Highsmith, Raymond C; Hilborn, Ray; McRoy, C Peter; Parrish, Julia; Weingartner, Thomas

2010-07-01

Prince William Sound (PWS) is a semi-enclosed fjord estuary on the coast of Alaska adjoining the northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA). PWS is highly productive and diverse, with primary productivity strongly coupled to nutrient dynamics driven by variability in the climate and oceanography of the GOA and North Pacific Ocean. The pelagic and nearshore primary productivity supports a complex and diverse trophic structure, including large populations of forage and large fish that support many species of marine birds and mammals. High intra-annual, inter-annual, and interdecadal variability in climatic and oceanographic processes as drives high variability in the biological populations. A risk-based conceptual ecosystem model (CEM) is presented describing the natural processes, anthropogenic drivers, and resultant stressors that affect PWS, including stressors caused by the Great Alaska Earthquake of 1964 and the Exxon Valdez oil spill of 1989. A trophodynamic model incorporating PWS valued ecosystem components is integrated into the CEM. By representing the relative strengths of driver/stressors/effects, the CEM graphically demonstrates the fundamental dynamics of the PWS ecosystem, the natural forces that control the ecological condition of the Sound, and the relative contribution of natural processes and human activities to the health of the ecosystem. The CEM illustrates the dominance of natural processes in shaping the structure and functioning of the GOA and PWS ecosystems.

A terrestrial ecosystem model (SOLVEG) coupled with atmospheric gas and aerosol exchange processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katata, Genki; Ota, Masakazu

2017-01-01

In order to predict the impact of atmospheric pollutants (gases and aerosols) to the terrestrial ecosystem, new schemes for calculating the processes of dry deposition of gases and aerosols, and water and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems were implemented in the one-dimensional atmosphere-SOiL-VEGetation model, SOLVEG. We made performance tests at various vegetation areas to validate the newly developed schemes. In this report, the detail in each modeled process is described with an instruction how to use the modified SOLVEG. The framework of 'terrestrial ecosystem model' was developed for investigation of a change in water, energy, and carbon cycles associated with global warming and air pollution and its impact on terrestrial ecosystems. (author)

The use of spatial empirical models to estimate soil erosion in arid ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdullah, Meshal; Feagin, Rusty; Musawi, Layla

2017-02-01

The central objective of this project was to utilize geographical information systems and remote sensing to compare soil erosion models, including Modified Pacific South-west Inter Agency Committee (MPSIAC), Erosion Potential Method (EPM), and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and to determine their applicability for arid regions such as Kuwait. The northern portion of Umm Nigga, containing both coastal and desert ecosystems, falls within the boundaries of the de-militarized zone (DMZ) adjacent to Iraq and has been fenced off to restrict public access since 1994. Results showed that the MPSIAC and EPM models were similar in spatial distribution of erosion, though the MPSIAC had a more realistic spatial distribution of erosion and presented finer level details. The RUSLE presented unrealistic results. We then predicted the amount of soil loss between coastal and desert areas and fenced and unfenced sites for each model. In the MPSIAC and EPM models, soil loss was different between fenced and unfenced sites at the desert areas, which was higher at the unfenced due to the low vegetation cover. The overall results implied that vegetation cover played an important role in reducing soil erosion and that fencing is much more important in the desert ecosystems to protect against human activities such as overgrazing. We conclude that the MPSIAC model is best for predicting soil erosion for arid regions such as Kuwait. We also recommend the integration of field-based experiments with lab-based spatial analysis and modeling in future research.

Assemblage structure: an overlooked component of human-mediated species movements among freshwater ecosystems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Andrew R. Drake

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The spread and impact of alien species among freshwater ecosystems has increased with global trade and human movement; therefore, quantifying the role of anthropogenic and ecological factors that increase the risk of invasion is an important conservation goal. Two factors considered as null models when assessing the potential for invasion are colonization pressure (i.e., the number of species introduced and propagule pressure [i.e., the number (propagule size, and frequency (propagule number, of individuals of each species introduced]. We translate the terminology of species abundance distributions to the invasion terminology of propagule size and colonization size (PS and CS, respectively. We conduct hypothesis testing to determine the underlying statistical species abundance distribution for zooplankton assemblages transported between freshwater ecosystems; and, on the basis of a lognormal distribution, construct four hypothetical assemblages spanning assemblage structure, rank-abundance gradient (e.g., even vs uneven, total abundance (of all species combined, and relative contribution of PS vs CS. For a given CS, many combinations of PS and total abundance can occur when transported assemblages conform to a lognormal species abundance distribution; therefore, for a given transportation event, many combinations of CS and PS are possible with potentially different ecological outcomes. An assemblage exhibiting high PS but low CS (species poor, but highly abundant may overcome demographic barriers to establishment, but with lower certainty of amenable environmental conditions in the recipient region; whereas, the opposite extreme, high CS and low PS (species rich, but low abundance per species may provide multiple opportunities for one of n arriving species to circumvent environmental barriers, albeit with lower potential to overcome demographic constraints. Species abundance distributions and the corresponding influence of CS and PS are some of

Urban ecosystem modeling and global change: Potential for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Shaoqing; Chen, Bin; Fath, Brian D.

2014-01-01

Urbanization is a strong and extensive driver that causes environmental pollution and climate change from local to global scale. Modeling cities as ecosystems has been initiated by a wide range of scientists as a key to addressing challenging problems concomitant with urbanization. In this paper, ‘urban ecosystem modeling (UEM)’ is defined in an inter-disciplinary context to acquire a broad perception of urban ecological properties and their interactions with global change. Furthermore, state-of-the-art models of urban ecosystems are reviewed, categorized as top-down models (including materials/energy-oriented models and structure-oriented models), bottom-up models (including land use-oriented models and infrastructure-oriented models), or hybrid models thereof. Based on the review of UEM studies, a future framework for explicit UEM is proposed based the integration of UEM approaches of different scales, guiding more rational urban management and efficient emissions mitigation. - Highlights: • Urban ecosystems modeling (UEM) is defined in an interdisciplinary context. • State-of-the-art models for UEM are critically reviewed and compared. • An integrated framework for explicit UEM is proposed under global change. - State-of-the-art models of urban ecosystem modeling (UEM) are reviewed for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

Climate Change Vulnerability of Agro-Ecosystems: Does socio-economic factors matters?

Science.gov (United States)

Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.; Post, W. M.

2013-12-01

Climate variability and change has direct impacts on agriculture. Despite continual adaptation to climate as well as gains in technology innovation and adoption, agriculture is still vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation expected in coming decades. Generally, researchers use two major methodologies to understand the vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to climate change: process-based crop models and empirical models. However, these models are not yet designed to capture the influence of socioeconomic systems on agro-ecosystem processes and outcomes.. However, socioeconomic processes are an important factor driving agro-ecological responses to biophysical processes (climate, topography and soil), because of the role of human agency in mediating the response of agro-ecosystems to climate. We have developed a framework that integrates socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics of agro-ecosystems using cluster analysis and GIS tools. This framework has been applied to the U.S. Southeast to define unique socio-ecological domains for agriculture. The results demonstrate that socioeconomic characteristics are an important factor influencing agriculture production. These results suggest that the lack of attention to socioeconomic conditions and human agency in agro-ecological modeling creates a potential bias with respect to the representation of climate change impacts.

Perception, acquisition and use of ecosystem services: human behavior, and ecosystem management and policy implications

Science.gov (United States)

Stanley T. Asah; Anne D. Guerry; Dale J. Blahna; Joshua J. Lawler

2014-01-01

Ecosystem services, fundamental to livelihoods and well-being, are reshaping environmental management and policy. However, the behavioral dimensions of ecosystem services and the responses of ordinary people to the management of those services, is less well understood. The ecosystem services framework lends itself to understanding the relationship between ecosystems...

Identifying thresholds for ecosystem-based management.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jameal F Samhouri

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: One of the greatest obstacles to moving ecosystem-based management (EBM from concept to practice is the lack of a systematic approach to defining ecosystem-level decision criteria, or reference points that trigger management action. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To assist resource managers and policymakers in developing EBM decision criteria, we introduce a quantitative, transferable method for identifying utility thresholds. A utility threshold is the level of human-induced pressure (e.g., pollution at which small changes produce substantial improvements toward the EBM goal of protecting an ecosystem's structural (e.g., diversity and functional (e.g., resilience attributes. The analytical approach is based on the detection of nonlinearities in relationships between ecosystem attributes and pressures. We illustrate the method with a hypothetical case study of (1 fishing and (2 nearshore habitat pressure using an empirically-validated marine ecosystem model for British Columbia, Canada, and derive numerical threshold values in terms of the density of two empirically-tractable indicator groups, sablefish and jellyfish. We also describe how to incorporate uncertainty into the estimation of utility thresholds and highlight their value in the context of understanding EBM trade-offs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: For any policy scenario, an understanding of utility thresholds provides insight into the amount and type of management intervention required to make significant progress toward improved ecosystem structure and function. The approach outlined in this paper can be applied in the context of single or multiple human-induced pressures, to any marine, freshwater, or terrestrial ecosystem, and should facilitate more effective management.

An ecosystem model for tropical forest disturbance and selective logging

Science.gov (United States)

Maoyi Huang; Gregory P. Asner; Michael Keller; Joseph A. Berry

2008-01-01

[1] A new three-dimensional version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model (CASA-3D) was developed to simulate regional carbon cycling in tropical forest ecosystems after disturbances such as logging. CASA-3D has the following new features: (1) an alternative approach for calculating absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) using new...

The PEcAn Project: Accessible Tools for On-demand Ecosystem Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Cowdery, E.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; Desai, A. R.; Mantooth, J.; Dietze, M.

2014-12-01

Ecosystem models play a critical role in understanding the terrestrial biosphere and forecasting changes in the carbon cycle, however current forecasts have considerable uncertainty. The amount of data being collected and produced is increasing on daily basis as we enter the "big data" era, but only a fraction of this data is being used to constrain models. Until we can improve the problems of model accessibility and model-data communication, none of these resources can be used to their full potential. The Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) is an ecoinformatics toolbox and a set of workflows that wrap around an ecosystem model and manage the flow of information in and out of regional-scale TBMs. Here we present new modules developed in PEcAn to manage the processing of meteorological data, one of the primary driver dependencies for ecosystem models. The module downloads, reads, extracts, and converts meteorological observations to Unidata Climate Forecast (CF) NetCDF community standard, a convention used for most climate forecast and weather models. The module also automates the conversion from NetCDF to model specific formats, including basic merging, gap-filling, and downscaling procedures. PEcAn currently supports tower-based micrometeorological observations at Ameriflux and FluxNET sites, site-level CSV-formatted data, and regional and global reanalysis products such as the North American Regional Reanalysis and CRU-NCEP. The workflow is easily extensible to additional products and processing algorithms.These meteorological workflows have been coupled with the PEcAn web interface and now allow anyone to run multiple ecosystem models for any location on the Earth by simply clicking on an intuitive Google-map based interface. This will allow users to more readily compare models to observations at those sites, leading to better calibration and validation. Current work is extending these workflows to also process field, remotely-sensed, and historical

Ecosystem goods and services at the neighborhood scale

Science.gov (United States)

Mapping ecosystem functions and articulating the ecosystem goods and services (EGS) they provide to human beneficiaries are important aspects that: link human actions to human costs and benefits from ecosystem, and ultimately provide this information to the general public, public...

Revealing Invisible Water: Moisture Recycling as an Ecosystem Service.

Science.gov (United States)

Keys, Patrick W; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Gordon, Line J

2016-01-01

An ecosystem service is a benefit derived by humanity that can be traced back to an ecological process. Although ecosystem services related to surface water have been thoroughly described, the relationship between atmospheric water and ecosystem services has been mostly neglected, and perhaps misunderstood. Recent advances in land-atmosphere modeling have revealed the importance of terrestrial ecosystems for moisture recycling. In this paper, we analyze the extent to which vegetation sustains the supply of atmospheric moisture and precipitation for downwind beneficiaries, globally. We simulate land-surface evaporation with a global hydrology model and track changes to moisture recycling using an atmospheric moisture budget model, and we define vegetation-regulated moisture recycling as the difference in moisture recycling between current vegetation and a hypothetical desert world. Our results show that nearly a fifth of annual average precipitation falling on land is from vegetation-regulated moisture recycling, but the global variability is large, with many places receiving nearly half their precipitation from this ecosystem service. The largest potential impacts for changes to this ecosystem service are land-use changes across temperate regions in North America and Russia. Likewise, in semi-arid regions reliant on rainfed agricultural production, land-use change that even modestly reduces evaporation and subsequent precipitation, could significantly affect human well-being. We also present a regional case study in the Mato Grosso region of Brazil, where we identify the specific moisture recycling ecosystem services associated with the vegetation in Mato Grosso. We find that Mato Grosso vegetation regulates some internal precipitation, with a diffuse region of benefit downwind, primarily to the south and east, including the La Plata River basin and the megacities of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. We synthesize our global and regional results into a generalized

Modeling carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry in forest ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Changsheng Li; Carl Trettin; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty; Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

2005-01-01

A forest biogeochemical model, Forest-DNDC, was developed to quantify carbon sequestration in and trace gas emissions from forest ecosystems. Forest-DNDC was constructed by integrating two existing moels, PnET and DNDC, with several new features including nitrification, forest litter layer, soil freezing and thawing etc, PnET is a forest physiological model predicting...

Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Kristin N; Kaplan, Isaac C; Hodgson, Emma E; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E; Harvey, Chris J; Fulton, Elizabeth A

2017-04-01

The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Leptospirosis in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: An Ecosystem Approach in the Animal-Human Interface

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, Maria Cristina; Najera, Patricia; Pereira, Martha M.; Machado, Gustavo; dos Anjos, Celso B.; Rodrigues, Rogério O.; Cavagni, Gabriela M.; Muñoz-Zanzi, Claudia; Corbellini, Luis G.; Leone, Mariana; Buss, Daniel F.; Aldighieri, Sylvain; Espinal, Marcos A.

2015-01-01

Background Leptospirosis is an epidemic-prone neglected disease that affects humans and animals, mostly in vulnerable populations. The One Health approach is a recommended strategy to identify drivers of the disease and plan for its prevention and control. In that context, the aim of this study was to analyze the distribution of human cases of leptospirosis in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, and to explore possible drivers. Additionally, it sought to provide further evidence to support interventions and to identify hypotheses for new research at the human-animal-ecosystem interface. Methodology and findings The risk for human infection was described in relation to environmental, socioeconomic, and livestock variables. This ecological study used aggregated data by municipality (all 496). Data were extracted from secondary, publicly available sources. Thematic maps were constructed and univariate analysis performed for all variables. Negative binomial regression was used for multivariable statistical analysis of leptospirosis cases. An annual average of 428 human cases of leptospirosis was reported in the state from 2008 to 2012. The cumulative incidence in rural populations was eight times higher than in urban populations. Variables significantly associated with leptospirosis cases in the final model were: Parana/Paraiba ecoregion (RR: 2.25; CI95%: 2.03–2.49); Neossolo Litolítico soil (RR: 1.93; CI95%: 1.26–2.96); and, to a lesser extent, the production of tobacco (RR: 1.10; CI95%: 1.09–1.11) and rice (RR: 1.003; CI95%: 1.002–1.04). Conclusion Urban cases were concentrated in the capital and rural cases in a specific ecoregion. The major drivers identified in this study were related to environmental and production processes that are permanent features of the state. This study contributes to the basic knowledge on leptospirosis distribution and drivers in the state and encourages a comprehensive approach to address the disease in the animal-human-ecosystem

Ecosystem Services : In Nordic Freshwater Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Magnussen, Kristin; Hasler, Berit; Zandersen, Marianne

Human wellbeing is dependent upon and benefit from ecosystem services which are delivered by well-functioning ecosystems. Ecosystem services can be mapped and assessed consistently within an ecosystem service framework. This project aims to explore the use and usefulness of the ecosystem service ...

Ocean Futures Under Ocean Acidification, Marine Protection, and Changing Fishing Pressures Explored Using a Worldwide Suite of Ecosystem Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erik Olsen

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Ecosystem-based management (EBM of the ocean considers all impacts on and uses of marine and coastal systems. In recent years, there has been a heightened interest in EBM tools that allow testing of alternative management options and help identify tradeoffs among human uses. End-to-end ecosystem modeling frameworks that consider a wide range of management options are a means to provide integrated solutions to the complex ocean management problems encountered in EBM. Here, we leverage the global advances in ecosystem modeling to explore common opportunities and challenges for ecosystem-based management, including changes in ocean acidification, spatial management, and fishing pressure across eight Atlantis (atlantis.cmar.csiro.au end-to-end ecosystem models. These models represent marine ecosystems from the tropics to the arctic, varying in size, ecology, and management regimes, using a three-dimensional, spatially-explicit structure parametrized for each system. Results suggest stronger impacts from ocean acidification and marine protected areas than from altering fishing pressure, both in terms of guild-level (i.e., aggregations of similar species or groups biomass and in terms of indicators of ecological and fishery structure. Effects of ocean acidification were typically negative (reducing biomass, while marine protected areas led to both “winners” and “losers” at the level of particular species (or functional groups. Changing fishing pressure (doubling or halving had smaller effects on the species guilds or ecosystem indicators than either ocean acidification or marine protected areas. Compensatory effects within guilds led to weaker average effects at the guild level than the species or group level. The impacts and tradeoffs implied by these future scenarios are highly relevant as ocean governance shifts focus from single-sector objectives (e.g., sustainable levels of individual fished stocks to taking into account competing

Measuring and Modeling the U.S. Regulatory Ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Bommarito, Michael J., II; Katz, Daniel Martin

2017-09-01

Over the last 23 years, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has required over 34,000 companies to file over 165,000 annual reports. These reports, the so-called "Form 10-Ks," contain a characterization of a company's financial performance and its risks, including the regulatory environment in which a company operates. In this paper, we analyze over 4.5 million references to U.S. Federal Acts and Agencies contained within these reports to measure the regulatory ecosystem, in which companies are organisms inhabiting a regulatory environment. While individuals across the political, economic, and academic world frequently refer to trends in this regulatory ecosystem, far less attention has been paid to supporting such claims with large-scale, longitudinal data. In this paper, in addition to positing a model of regulatory ecosystems, we document an increase in the regulatory energy per filing, i.e., a warming "temperature." We also find that the diversity of the regulatory ecosystem has been increasing over the past two decades. These findings support the claim that regulatory activity and complexity are increasing, and this framework contributes an important step towards improving academic and policy discussions around legal complexity and regulation.

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam E Vorsino

Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

Science.gov (United States)

Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

2014-01-01

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lindborg, Tobias; Andersson, Eva [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: tobias.lindborg@skb.se; Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa Marine Sciences Centre, Umeaa (Sweden); Stroemgren, Maarten [Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden); Sohlenius, Gustav [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)] Loefgren, Anders [EcoAnalytica, Haegersten (Sweden)

2013-05-15

Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement.

Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindborg, Tobias; Andersson, Eva; Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten; Sohlenius, Gustav; Loefgren, Anders

2013-01-01

Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement

Urban ecosystem

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duvigneaud, P

1974-01-01

The author considers the town as an ecosystem. He examines its various subdivisions (climate, soil, structure, human and non-human communities, etc.) for which he chooses examples with particular reference to the city of Brussels.

Ecological and Social Dynamics in Simple Models of Ecosystem Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen R. Carpenter

1999-12-01

Full Text Available Simulation models were developed to explore and illustrate dynamics of socioecological systems. The ecosystem is a lake subject to phosphorus pollution. Phosphorus flows from agriculture to upland soils, to surface waters, where it cycles between water and sediments. The ecosystem is multistable, and moves among domains of attraction depending on the history of pollutant inputs. The alternative states yield different economic benefits. Agents form expectations about ecosystem dynamics, markets, and/or the actions of managers, and choose levels of pollutant inputs accordingly. Agents have heterogeneous beliefs and/or access to information. Their aggregate behavior determines the total rate of pollutant input. As the ecosystem changes, agents update their beliefs and expectations about the world they co-create, and modify their actions accordingly. For a wide range of scenarios, we observe irregular oscillations among ecosystem states and patterns of agent behavior. These oscillations resemble some features of the adaptive cycle of panarchy theory.

Linking ecosystem services with state-and-transition models to evaluate rangeland management decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Lohani, S.; Heilman, P.; deSteiguer, J. E.; Guertin, D. P.; Wissler, C.; McClaran, M. P.

2014-12-01

Quantifying ecosystem services is a crucial topic for land management decision making. However, market prices are usually not able to capture all the ecosystem services and disservices. Ecosystem services from rangelands, that cover 70% of the world's land area, are even less well-understood since knowledge of rangelands is limited. This study generated a management framework for rangelands that uses remote sensing to generate state and transition models (STMs) for a large area and a linear programming (LP) model that uses ecosystem services to evaluate natural and/or management induced transitions as described in the STM. The LP optimization model determines the best management plan for a plot of semi-arid land in the Empire Ranch in southeastern Arizona. The model allocated land among management activities (do nothing, grazing, fire, and brush removal) to optimize net benefits and determined the impact of monetizing environmental services and disservices on net benefits, acreage allocation and production output. The ecosystem services under study were forage production (AUM/ac/yr), sediment (lbs/ac/yr), water runoff (inches/yr), soil loss (lbs/ac/yr) and recreation (thousands of number of visitors/ac/yr). The optimization model was run for three different scenarios - private rancher, public rancher including environmental services and excluding disservices, and public rancher including both services and disservices. The net benefit was the highest for the public rancher excluding the disservices. A result from the study is a constrained optimization model that incorporates ecosystem services to analyze investments on conservation and management activities. Rangeland managers can use this model to understand and explain, not prescribe, the tradeoffs of management investments.

Ecosystem services altered by human changes in the nitrogen cycle: a new perspective for US decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Compton, Jana E; Harrison, John A; Dennis, Robin L; Greaver, Tara L; Hill, Brian H; Jordan, Stephen J; Walker, Henry; Campbell, Holly V

2011-08-01

Human alteration of the nitrogen (N) cycle has produced benefits for health and well-being, but excess N has altered many ecosystems and degraded air and water quality. US regulations mandate protection of the environment in terms that directly connect to ecosystem services. Here, we review the science quantifying effects of N on key ecosystem services, and compare the costs of N-related impacts or mitigation using the metric of cost per unit of N. Damage costs to the provision of clean air, reflected by impaired human respiratory health, are well characterized and fairly high (e.g. costs of ozone and particulate damages of $28 per kg NO(x)-N). Damage to services associated with productivity, biodiversity, recreation and clean water are less certain and although generally lower, these costs are quite variable (ecosystem services provides decision-makers an integrated view of N sources, damages and abatement costs to address the significant challenges associated with reducing N pollution. Published 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

2012-09-01

End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed

Eco-Health Linkages: Assessing the Role of Ecosystem Goods and Services on Human Health Using Causal Criteria Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Objectives In the last decade, we saw an upsurge of studies evaluating the role of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) on human health (Eco-Health). Most of this work consists of observational research of intermediate processes and few address the full pathways from ecosystem to E...

Man-Made Closed Ecological Systems as Model of Natural Ecosystems and as Means to Provide High Quality of Human Life in Adverse Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Gitelson, I. I.; Harper, Lynn (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

For its more than thirty year long history, the experimental creation of closed ecological systems has from its very sources been distinctly and strongly motivated by the development of human life-support systems for space. As the trend developed its fundamental significance and broad opportunities of terrestrial applications of the technologies under development were coming to the foreground. Nowadays, it can be argued that development of closed ecosystems is experimental foundation of a new branch of ecology biospherics, the goal of which is to comprehend the regularities of existence of the biosphere as a unique in the Universe (in that part of it that we know, at least) closed ecosystem. Closed technologies can be implemented in life-support systems under adverse conditions of life on the Earth - in Arctic and Antarctic latitudes, deserts, high mountains or deep in the ocean, as well as under the conditions of polluted water and air. In space where the environment is hostile for life all around the cell of life should be sealed and the life-support system as close to the ideally closed cyclic turnover of the matter as possible. Under terrestrial conditions designers should strive for maximum closure of the limiting factor: water - in deserts, oxygen - in high mountains, energy - in polar latitudes, etc. Essential closure of a life-support systems withstands also pollution of the environment by the wastes of human vital activity. This is of particular importance for the quarantine of visited planets, and on the Earth under the conditions of deficient heat in high latitudes and water in and areas. The report describes experimental ecosystem 'BIOS' and exohabitats being designed on its basis, which are adapted to various conditions, described capacities of the Center for Closed Ecosystems in Drasnoyarsk for international collaboration in research and education in this field.

HUMAN-INDUCED CHANGES IN ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE PETROŞANI DEPRESSION (SOUTHERN CARPATHIANS, ROMANIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ANDRA COSTACHE

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The paper focuses on the changes in ecosystem services in the most important coal field from the Southern Carpathians (Romania. The time horizon considered is the interval 1950-2010, characterized by two major processes: intensive development of the mining industry (1950-1989 and subsequent restructuring of mining, with significant consequences since 1996. Socio-economic phenomena associated with these two stages in the evolution of the region have generated major changes in ecosystem services, leading to increased human vulnerability, both to extreme events (natural hazards and pressure from economic factors.

Implications of Uncertainty in Fossil Fuel Emissions for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

King, A. W.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Andres, R. J.

2017-12-01

Given observations of the increase in atmospheric CO2, estimates of anthropogenic emissions and models of oceanic CO2 uptake, one can estimate net global CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems as the residual of the balanced global carbon budget. Estimates from the Global Carbon Project 2016 show that terrestrial ecosystems are a growing sink for atmospheric CO2 (averaging 2.12 Gt C y-1 for the period 1959-2015 with a growth rate of 0.03 Gt C y-1 per year) but with considerable year-to-year variability (standard deviation of 1.07 Gt C y-1). Within the uncertainty of the observations, emissions estimates and ocean modeling, this residual calculation is a robust estimate of a global terrestrial sink for CO2. A task of terrestrial ecosystem science is to explain the trend and variability in this estimate. However, "within the uncertainty" is an important caveat. The uncertainty (2σ; 95% confidence interval) in fossil fuel emissions is 8.4% (±0.8 Gt C in 2015). Combined with uncertainty in other carbon budget components, the 2σ uncertainty surrounding the global net terrestrial ecosystem CO2 exchange is ±1.6 Gt C y-1. Ignoring the uncertainty, the estimate of a general terrestrial sink includes 2 years (1987 and 1998) in which terrestrial ecosystems are a small source of CO2 to the atmosphere. However, with 2σ uncertainty, terrestrial ecosystems may have been a source in as many as 18 years. We examine how well global terrestrial biosphere models simulate the trend and interannual variability of the global-budget estimate of the terrestrial sink within the context of this uncertainty (e.g., which models fall outside the 2σ uncertainty and in what years). Models are generally capable of reproducing the trend in net terrestrial exchange, but are less able to capture interannual variability and often fall outside the 2σ uncertainty. The trend in the residual carbon budget estimate is primarily associated with the increase in atmospheric CO2

Study on the ecosystem construction of using ecopath model in inland waterway

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Junjie; Bai, Jing; Zhang, Lu; Wang, Ning; Shou, Youping

2018-04-01

In this paper, Ecopath with Ecosim 5.1 software is used to simulate the constructed water ecosystem of inland waterway. According to the characteristics of feeding relationship, the ecopath model of water ecosystem is divided into seven functional groups: phytoplankton, hydrophyte, zooplankton, herbivorous, omnivorous, polychaetes and detritus. By analyzing the important ecological parameters of the ecosystem, such as biomass, biomass / biomass, consumption / biomass, trophic level and ecological nutrient conversion efficiency, the software integrates the energy flow process of the ecosystem, the ratio of the total net primary production and the sum of all respiratory flows is 1.314, it’s indicating that the ecosystem is equilibrium. The research method of this paper can be widely used to evaluate the stability of the ecosystem of the domestic river.

Ecosystem processes and human influences regulate streamflow response to climate change at long-term ecological research sites

Science.gov (United States)

Julia A. Jones; Irena F. Creed; Kendra L. Hatcher; Robert J. Warren; Mary Beth Adams; Melinda H. Benson; Emery Boose; Warren A. Brown; John L. Campbell; Alan Covich; David W. Clow; Clifford N. Dahm; Kelly Elder; Chelcy R. Ford; Nancy B. Grimm; Donald L Henshaw; Kelli L. Larson; Evan S. Miles; Kathleen M. Miles; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Adam T. Spargo; Asa B. Stone; James M. Vose; Mark W. Williams

2012-01-01

Analyses of long-term records at 35 headwater basins in the United States and Canada indicate that climate change effects on streamflow are not as clear as might be expected, perhaps because of ecosystem processes and human influences. Evapotranspiration was higher than was predicted by temperature in water-surplus ecosystems and lower than was predicted in water-...

Damped trophic cascades driven by fishing in model marine ecosystems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ken Haste; Pedersen, Martin

2010-01-01

The largest perturbation on upper trophic levels of many marine ecosystems stems from fishing. The reaction of the ecosystem goes beyond the trophic levels directly targeted by the fishery. This reaction has been described either as a change in slope of the overall size spectrum or as a trophic...... cascade triggered by the removal of top predators. Here we use a novel size- and trait-based model to explore how marine ecosystems might react to perturbations from different types of fishing pressure. The model explicitly resolves the whole life history of fish, from larvae to adults. The results show...... that fishing does not change the overall slope of the size spectrum, but depletes the largest individuals and induces trophic cascades. A trophic cascade can propagate both up and down in trophic levels driven by a combination of changes in predation mortality and food limitation. The cascade is damped...

Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen R. Carpenter

2006-06-01

Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

Bayesian analysis of non-linear differential equation models with application to a gut microbial ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawson, Daniel J; Holtrop, Grietje; Flint, Harry

2011-07-01

Process models specified by non-linear dynamic differential equations contain many parameters, which often must be inferred from a limited amount of data. We discuss a hierarchical Bayesian approach combining data from multiple related experiments in a meaningful way, which permits more powerful inference than treating each experiment as independent. The approach is illustrated with a simulation study and example data from experiments replicating the aspects of the human gut microbial ecosystem. A predictive model is obtained that contains prediction uncertainty caused by uncertainty in the parameters, and we extend the model to capture situations of interest that cannot easily be studied experimentally. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Inferential ecosystem models, from network data to prediction

Science.gov (United States)

James S. Clark; Pankaj Agarwal; David M. Bell; Paul G. Flikkema; Alan Gelfand; Xuanlong Nguyen; Eric Ward; Jun Yang

2011-01-01

Recent developments suggest that predictive modeling could begin to play a larger role not only for data analysis, but also for data collection. We address the example of efficient wireless sensor networks, where inferential ecosystem models can be used to weigh the value of an observation against the cost of data collection. Transmission costs make observations ‘‘...

Development of an integrated generic model for multi-scale assessment of the impacts of agro-ecosystems on major ecosystem services in West Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Belem, Mahamadou; Saqalli, Mehdi

2017-11-01

This paper presents an integrated model assessing the impacts of climate change, agro-ecosystem and demographic transition patterns on major ecosystem services in West-Africa along a partial overview of economic aspects (poverty reduction, food self-sufficiency and income generation). The model is based on an agent-based model associated with a soil model and multi-scale spatial model. The resulting Model for West-Africa Agro-Ecosystem Integrated Assessment (MOWASIA) is ecologically generic, meaning it is designed for all sudano-sahelian environments but may then be used as an experimentation facility for testing different scenarios combining ecological and socioeconomic dimensions. A case study in Burkina Faso is examined to assess the environmental and economic performances of semi-continuous and continuous farming systems. Results show that the semi-continuous system using organic fertilizer and fallowing practices contribute better to environment preservation and food security than the more economically performant continuous system. In addition, this study showed that farmers heterogeneity could play an important role in agricultural policies planning and assessment. In addition, the results showed that MOWASIA is an effective tool for designing, analysing the impacts of agro-ecosystems. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Clinton S. Wright

2013-01-01

Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....

Modeling hurricane effects on mangrove ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, Thomas W.

1997-01-01

Mangrove ecosystems are at their most northern limit along the coastline of Florida and in isolated areas of the gulf coast in Louisiana and Texas. Mangroves are marine-based forests that have adapted to colonize and persist in salty intertidal waters. Three species of mangrove trees are common to the United States, black mangrove (Avicennia germinans), white mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa), and red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle). Mangroves are highly productive ecosystems and provide valuable habitat for fisheries and shorebirds. They are susceptible to lightning and hurricane disturbance, both of which occur frequently in south Florida. Climate change studies predict that, while these storms may not become more frequent, they may become more intense with warming sea temperatures. Sea-level rise alone has the potential for increasing the severity of storm surge, particularly in areas where coastal habitats and barrier shorelines are rapidly deteriorating. Given this possibility, U.S. Geological Survey researchers modeled the impact of hurricanes on south Florida mangrove communities.

Understanding variation in ecosystem pulse responses to wetting: Benefits of data-model coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Jenerette, D.

2011-12-01

Metabolic pulses of activity are a common ecological response to intermittently available resources and in water-limited ecosystems these pulses often occur in response to wetting. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) in response to episodic wetting events is hypothesized to have a complex trajectory reflecting the distinct responses, or "pulses", of respiration and photosynthesis. To help direct research activities a physiological-based model of whole ecosystem metabolic activity up- and down-regulation was developed to investigate ecosystem energy balance and gas exchange pulse responses following precipitation events. This model was to investigate pulse dynamics from a local network of sites in southern Arizona, a global network of eddy-covariance ecosystem monitoring sites, laboratory incubation studies, and field manipulations. Pulse responses were found to be ubiquitous across ecosystem types. These pulses had a highly variable influence on NEE following wetting, ranging from large net sinks to sources of CO2 to the atmosphere. Much of the variability in pulse responses of NEE could be described through a coupled up- and down-regulation pulse response model. Respiration pulses were hypothesized to occur through a reduction in whole ecosystem activation energy; this model was both useful and corroborated through laboratory incubation studies of soil respiration. Using the Fluxnet eddy-covariance measurement database event specific responses were combined with the pulse model into an event specific twenty-five day net flux calculation. Across all events observed a general net accumulation of CO2 following a precipitation event, with the largest net uptake within deciduous broadleaf forests and smallest within grasslands. NEE pulses favored greater uptake when pre-event ecosystem respiration rates and total precipitation were higher. While the latter was expected, the former adds to previous theory by suggesting a larger net uptake of CO2 when pre-event metabolic

A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

Science.gov (United States)

Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Cheung, William; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Büchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Huber, Veronika; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda; Lehodey, Patrick; Link, Jason S.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Silva, Tiago; Stock, Charles A.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Underwood, Philip J.; Volkholz, Jan; Watson, James R.; Walker, Nicola D.

2018-04-01

Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the

A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. P. Tittensor

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0, part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP, which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size, and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s and future (to 2100 time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6 in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems

Designer ecosystems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Awasthi, Ashutosh; Singh, Kripal; O'Grady, Audrey; Courtney, Ronan; Kalra, Alok; Singh, Rana Pratap; Cerda Bolinches, Artemio; Steinberger, Yosef; Patra, D.D.

2016-01-01

Increase in human population is accelerating the rate of land use change, biodiversity loss and habitat degradation, triggering a serious threat to life supporting ecosystem services. Existing strategies for biological conservation remain insufficient to achieve a sustainable human-nature

Mainstreaming Natural Capital into Decisions: Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arnas Palaima

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to review current paradigms in ecosystem services valuation, existing gaps and current trends in addressing those gaps. Natural capital, often defined as the stock of natural ecosystems that yields a flow of valuable ecosystem goods or services into the future, is often undervalued or not valued at all by governments, business and society, which leads to environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. One of the major reasons of such undervaluation is the lack of practical, realistic quantitative methods/models that would establish ecosystem services value and its change due to human development. A promising, recently developed ecosystem services modeling system is InVEST: “Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs.” InVEST is a set of Geographic Information Systems (GIS models that predict the provision and value of ecosystem services and habitat provision given land use/land cover maps and related biophysical, economic, and institutional data for the study region. InVEST, if further developed and applied in a systematic way, could facilitate mainstreaming the natural capital into decisions at all levels and provide a strong foundation for local natural resources managers to improve and optimize their environmental management strategies.

Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olson, R.J.

2002-03-19

Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

Diversity loss with persistent human disturbance increases vulnerability to ecosystem collapse.

Science.gov (United States)

MacDougall, A S; McCann, K S; Gellner, G; Turkington, R

2013-02-07

Long-term and persistent human disturbances have simultaneously altered the stability and diversity of ecological systems, with disturbances directly reducing functional attributes such as invasion resistance, while eliminating the buffering effects of high species diversity. Theory predicts that this combination of environmental change and diversity loss increases the risk of abrupt and potentially irreversible ecosystem collapse, but long-term empirical evidence from natural systems is lacking. Here we demonstrate this relationship in a degraded but species-rich pyrogenic grassland in which the combined effects of fire suppression, invasion and trophic collapse have created a species-poor grassland that is highly productive, resilient to yearly climatic fluctuations, and resistant to invasion, but vulnerable to rapid collapse after the re-introduction of fire. We initially show how human disturbance has created a negative relationship between diversity and function, contrary to theoretical predictions. Fire prevention since the mid-nineteenth century is associated with the loss of plant species but it has stabilized high-yield annual production and invasion resistance, comparable to a managed high-yield low-diversity agricultural system. In managing for fire suppression, however, a hidden vulnerability to sudden environmental change emerges that is explained by the elimination of the buffering effects of high species diversity. With the re-introduction of fire, grasslands only persist in areas with remnant concentrations of native species, in which a range of rare and mostly functionally redundant plants proliferate after burning and prevent extensive invasion including a rapid conversion towards woodland. This research shows how biodiversity can be crucial for ecosystem stability despite appearing functionally insignificant beforehand, a relationship probably applicable to many ecosystems given the globally prevalent combination of intensive long-term land

Trophic models: What do we learn about Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay ecosystems?

Science.gov (United States)

Moullec, Fabien; Gascuel, Didier; Bentorcha, Karim; Guénette, Sylvie; Robert, Marianne

2017-08-01

Trophic models are key tools to go beyond the single-species approaches used in stock assessments to adopt a more holistic view and implement the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM). This study aims to: (i) analyse the trophic functioning of the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay, (ii) investigate ecosystem changes over the 1980-2013 period and, (iii) explore the response to management measures at the food web scale. Ecopath models were built for each ecosystem for years 1980 and 2013, and Ecosim models were fitted to time series data of biomass and catches. EcoTroph diagnosis showed that in both ecosystems, fishing pressure focuses on high trophic levels (TLs) and, to a lesser extent, on intermediate TLs. However, the interplay between local environmental conditions, species composition and ecosystem functioning could explain the different responses to fisheries management observed between these two contiguous ecosystems. Indeed, over the study period, the ecosystem's exploitation status has improved in the Bay of Biscay but not in the Celtic Sea. This improvement does not seem to be sufficient to achieve the objectives of an EAFM, as high trophic levels were still overexploited in 2013 and simulations conducted with Ecosim in the Bay of Biscay indicate that at current fishing effort the biomass will not be rebuilt by 2030. The ecosystem's response to a reduction in fishing mortality depends on which trophic levels receive protection. Reducing fishing mortality on pelagic fish, instead of on demersal fish, appears more efficient at maximising catch and total biomass and at conserving both top-predator and intermediate TLs. Such advice-oriented trophic models should be used on a regular basis to monitor the health status of marine food webs and analyse the trade-offs between multiple objectives in an ecosystem-based fisheries management context.

Ecosystem model of the entire Beaufort Sea marine ecosystem: a tool for assessing food-web structure and ecosystem changes from 1970 to 2014

Science.gov (United States)

Suprenand, P. M.; Hoover, C.

2016-02-01

The Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem is approximately a 476,000 km2 area in the Arctic Ocean, which extends from -112.5 to -158° longitude to 67.5 to 75° latitude. Within this Arctic Ocean area the United States (Alaskan) indigenous communities of Barrow, Kaktovik, and Nuiqsut, and the Canadian (Northwest Territories) indigenous communities of Aklavik, Inuvik, Tuktoyaktuk, Paulatuk, Ulukhaktok, and Sachs Harbour, subsist by harvesting marine mammals, fish, and invertebrates from the Beaufort Sea to provide the majority of their community foods annually. The ecosystem in which the indigenous communities harvest is considered a polar habitat that includes many specialized species, such as polar bears that rely on sea-ice for foraging activities and denning, or ice algae that are attached to the cryosphere. However, the polar habitat has been experiencing a diminishing sea-ice extent, age, and seasonal duration, with concomitant increases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), since the 1970s. Changes in sea-ice and SST have consequences to the Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem, which includes animal habitat losses, alterations to trophodynamics, and impacts to subsistence community harvesting. The present study was aimed at capturing trophodynamic changes in the Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem from 1970 to 2014 using a fitted spatial-temporal model (Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace) that utilizes forcing and mediation functions to describe animal/trophodynamic relationships with sea-ice and sea surface temperature, as well as individual community harvesting efforts. Model outputs reveals similar trends in animals population changes (e.g., increasing bowhead whale stock), changes in apex predator diets (e.g., polar bears eating less ringed seal), and changes in animal distributions (e.g., polar bears remaining closer to land over time). The Beaufort Sea model is a dynamic tool for Arctic Ocean natural resource management in the years to come.

Ecosystem Model Performance at Wetlands: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis

Science.gov (United States)

Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Schroeder, N. M.; NACP Site Synthesis Participants

2011-12-01

Northern peatlands contain a significant fraction of the global carbon pool, and their responses to hydrological change are likely to be important factors in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global-scale carbon cycle modeling studies typically use general ecosystem models with coarse spatial resolution, often without peatland-specific processes. Here, seven ecosystem models were used to simulate CO2 fluxes at three field sites in Canada and the northern United States, including two nutrient-rich fens and one nutrient-poor, sphagnum-dominated bog, from 2002-2006. Flux residuals (simulated - observed) were positively correlated with measured water table for both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at the two fen sites for all models, and were positively correlated with water table at the bog site for the majority of models. Modeled diurnal cycles at fen sites agreed well with eddy covariance measurements overall. Eddy covariance GEP and ER were higher during dry periods than during wet periods, while model results predicted either the opposite relationship or no significant difference. At the bog site, eddy covariance GEP had no significant dependence on water table, while models predicted higher GEP during wet periods. All models significantly over-estimated GEP at the bog site, and all but one over-estimated ER at the bog site. Carbon cycle models in peatland-rich regions could be improved by incorporating better models or measurements of hydrology and by inhibiting GEP and ER rates under saturated conditions. Bogs and fens likely require distinct treatments in ecosystem models due to differences in nutrients, peat properties, and plant communities.

Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and point source released radionuclides to an aquatic ecosystem

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumblad, Linda [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Systems Ecology; Kautsky, Ulrik [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

2004-09-01

In this report three ecosystem models are described in terms of structure, initial data, and results. All models are dynamic, mass-balanced and describe the transport and fate of elements in an open aquatic ecosystem. The models are based on ecologically sound principles, provide model results with high resolution and transparency, and are constrained by the nutrient dynamics of the ecosystem itself. The processes driving the transport in all the models are both the biological processes such as primary production, consumption, respiration and excretion, and abiotic e.g. water exchange and air-sea exchange. The first model, the CNP-model, describes the distribution and fluxes of carbon and nutrients for the coastal ecosystem off Forsmark. The second model, the C-14 model, is an extension of the CNP-model and describes the transport and distribution of hypothetically released C-14 from the underground repository SFR-1 to the ecosystem above. The third model, the RN-model, is a generic radionuclide flow model that models the transport and distribution of radionuclides other than C-14 hypothetically discharged to the ecosystem. The model also analyses the importance of some radionuclide specific mechanisms for the radionuclide flow. The generic radionuclide model is also based on the CNP-model, but has radionuclide specific mechanisms connected to each compartment.

Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and point source released radionuclides to an aquatic ecosystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumblad, Linda

2004-09-01

In this report three ecosystem models are described in terms of structure, initial data, and results. All models are dynamic, mass-balanced and describe the transport and fate of elements in an open aquatic ecosystem. The models are based on ecologically sound principles, provide model results with high resolution and transparency, and are constrained by the nutrient dynamics of the ecosystem itself. The processes driving the transport in all the models are both the biological processes such as primary production, consumption, respiration and excretion, and abiotic e.g. water exchange and air-sea exchange. The first model, the CNP-model, describes the distribution and fluxes of carbon and nutrients for the coastal ecosystem off Forsmark. The second model, the C-14 model, is an extension of the CNP-model and describes the transport and distribution of hypothetically released C-14 from the underground repository SFR-1 to the ecosystem above. The third model, the RN-model, is a generic radionuclide flow model that models the transport and distribution of radionuclides other than C-14 hypothetically discharged to the ecosystem. The model also analyses the importance of some radionuclide specific mechanisms for the radionuclide flow. The generic radionuclide model is also based on the CNP-model, but has radionuclide specific mechanisms connected to each compartment

Sensitivity of euphotic zone properties to CDOM variations in marine ecosystem models

OpenAIRE

Urtizberea, Agurtzane; Dupont, Nicolas; Rosland, Rune; Aksnes, Dag L.

2013-01-01

In marine ecosystem models, the underwater light intensity is commonly characterized by the shading of phytoplankton in addition to a background light attenuation coefficient. Colour dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is an important component of the background light attenuation, and we investigate how variation in CDOM attenuation affects euphotic zone properties in a general marine ecosystem model. Our results suggest that euphotic zone properties are highly sensitive to CDOM variations occurr...

The Collapse of Ecosystem Engineer Populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José F. Fontanari

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Humans are the ultimate ecosystem engineers who have profoundly transformed the world’s landscapes in order to enhance their survival. Somewhat paradoxically, however, sometimes the unforeseen effect of this ecosystem engineering is the very collapse of the population it intended to protect. Here we use a spatial version of a standard population dynamics model of ecosystem engineers to study the colonization of unexplored virgin territories by a small settlement of engineers. We find that during the expansion phase the population density reaches values much higher than those the environment can support in the equilibrium situation. When the colonization front reaches the boundary of the available space, the population density plunges sharply and attains its equilibrium value. The collapse takes place without warning and happens just after the population reaches its peak number. We conclude that overpopulation and the consequent collapse of an expanding population of ecosystem engineers is a natural consequence of the nonlinear feedback between the population and environment variables.

Risk assessment for human health and terrestrial ecosystem under chronic radioactive pollution near regional radioactive waste storage

Science.gov (United States)

Lavrentyeva, G. V.; Katkova, M. N.; Shoshina, R. R.; Synzynys, B. I.

2017-01-01

An impact of the radioactive waste storage facility at the regional population was assessed under supervision of IAEA. It was made in accordance with the methodology for assessment of doses and risks to human storage using different scenarios of radionuclides releases into the environment. The following scenarios were considered: leakage of fluid, resuspension of dust, fire, flooding. Thy evaluation of radiation doses received and the risks to the human showed that the risk has been acceptable for all scenarios. An approach for an ecological risk assessment for terrestrial ecosystem is presented as five modules: selection of the ecosystem-receptor of radiation effects; determination of reference species of living organisms and their survival indices; the critical load as an absorbed dose rate is calculated from the dependence between the absorbed Sr-90 radiation dose rate and the coefficient of radioactive strontium accumulation in mollusc shells; the critical dose; risk is assessed from a part of the ecosystem territory with increased mollusc loading; uncertainties appeared at each stage of risk assessment are characterized. The risk of exposure to the repository on the ecosystem should be characterized as unacceptable.

Risk assessment for human health and terrestrial ecosystem under chronic radioactive pollution near regional radioactive waste storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lavrentyeva, G V; Katkova, M N; Shoshina, R R; Synzynys, B I

2017-01-01

An impact of the radioactive waste storage facility at the regional population was assessed under supervision of IAEA. It was made in accordance with the methodology for assessment of doses and risks to human storage using different scenarios of radionuclides releases into the environment. The following scenarios were considered: leakage of fluid, resuspension of dust, fire, flooding. Thy evaluation of radiation doses received and the risks to the human showed that the risk has been acceptable for all scenarios. An approach for an ecological risk assessment for terrestrial ecosystem is presented as five modules: selection of the ecosystem-receptor of radiation effects; determination of reference species of living organisms and their survival indices; the critical load as an absorbed dose rate is calculated from the dependence between the absorbed Sr-90 radiation dose rate and the coefficient of radioactive strontium accumulation in mollusc shells; the critical dose; risk is assessed from a part of the ecosystem territory with increased mollusc loading; uncertainties appeared at each stage of risk assessment are characterized. The risk of exposure to the repository on the ecosystem should be characterized as unacceptable. (paper)

Priorities to Advance Monitoring of Ecosystem Services Using Earth Observation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cord, Anna F; Brauman, Kate A; Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Huth, Andreas; Ziv, Guy; Seppelt, Ralf

2017-06-01

Managing ecosystem services in the context of global sustainability policies requires reliable monitoring mechanisms. While satellite Earth observation offers great promise to support this need, significant challenges remain in quantifying connections between ecosystem functions, ecosystem services, and human well-being benefits. Here, we provide a framework showing how Earth observation together with socioeconomic information and model-based analysis can support assessments of ecosystem service supply, demand, and benefit, and illustrate this for three services. We argue that the full potential of Earth observation is not yet realized in ecosystem service studies. To provide guidance for priority setting and to spur research in this area, we propose five priorities to advance the capabilities of Earth observation-based monitoring of ecosystem services. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diversity of key players in the microbial ecosystems of the human body.

Science.gov (United States)

Jordán, Ferenc; Lauria, Mario; Scotti, Marco; Nguyen, Thanh-Phuong; Praveen, Paurush; Morine, Melissa; Priami, Corrado

2015-10-30

Coexisting bacteria form various microbial communities in human body parts. In these ecosystems they interact in various ways and the properties of the interaction network can be related to the stability and functional diversity of the local bacterial community. In this study, we analyze the interaction network among bacterial OTUs in 11 locations of the human body. These belong to two major groups. One is the digestive system and the other is the female genital tract. In each local ecosystem we determine the key species, both the ones being in key positions in the interaction network and the ones that dominate by frequency. Beyond identifying the key players and discussing their biological relevance, we also quantify and compare the properties of the 11 networks. The interaction networks of the female genital system and the digestive system show totally different architecture. Both the topological properties and the identity of the key groups differ. Key groups represent four phyla of prokaryotes. Some groups appear in key positions in several locations, while others are assigned only to a single body part. The key groups of the digestive and the genital tracts are totally different.

Indicators for mapping ecosystem services: a review

OpenAIRE

EGOH BENIS NCHINE; DRAKOU EVANGELIA; DUNBAR MARTHA BONNET; MAES JOACHIM; WILLEMEN LOUISE

2012-01-01

Ecosystem services are the benefits that humans derive from ecosystems, such as food provisioning, water regulating and provisioning, soil productivity, and use of natural areas for recreation. The current challenge is to mainstream ecosystem services into policies and practices in order to ensure the continuous provision of these benefits to humans. The European Union has adopted an EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2020 in which the target of safeguarding ecosystem services is explicitly include...

Freshwater Ecosystem Services in Mining Regions: Modelling Options for Policy Development Support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Mercado-Garcia

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The ecosystem services (ES approach offers an integrated perspective of social-ecological systems, suitable for holistic assessments of mining impacts. Yet for ES models to be policy-relevant, methodological consensus in mining contexts is needed. We review articles assessing ES in mining areas focusing on freshwater components and policy support potential. Twenty-six articles were analysed concerning (i methodological complexity (data types, number of parameters, processes and ecosystem–human integration level and (ii potential applicability for policy development (communication of uncertainties, scenario simulation, stakeholder participation and management recommendations. Articles illustrate mining impacts on ES through valuation exercises mostly. However, the lack of ground- and surface-water measurements, as well as insufficient representation of the connectivity among soil, water and humans, leave room for improvements. Inclusion of mining-specific environmental stressors models, increasing resolution of topographies, determination of baseline ES patterns and inclusion of multi-stakeholder perspectives are advantageous for policy support. We argue that achieving more holistic assessments exhorts practitioners to aim for high social-ecological connectivity using mechanistic models where possible and using inductive methods only where necessary. Due to data constraints, cause–effect networks might be the most feasible and best solution. Thus, a policy-oriented framework is proposed, in which data science is directed to environmental modelling for analysis of mining impacts on water ES.

Modelling the ecosystem effects of nitrogen deposition: Model of Ecosystem Retention and Loss of Inorganic Nitrogen (MERLIN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. J. Cosby

1997-01-01

Full Text Available A catchment-scale mass-balance model of linked carbon and nitrogen cycling in ecosystems has been developed for simulating leaching losses of inorganic nitrogen. The model (MERLIN considers linked biotic and abiotic processes affecting the cycling and storage of nitrogen. The model is aggregated in space and time and contains compartments intended to be observable and/or interpretable at the plot or catchment scale. The structure of the model includes the inorganic soil, a plant compartment and two soil organic compartments. Fluxes in and out of the ecosystem and between compartments are regulated by atmospheric deposition, hydrological discharge, plant uptake, litter production, wood production, microbial immobilization, mineralization, nitrification, and denitrification. Nitrogen fluxes are controlled by carbon productivity, the C:N ratios of organic compartments and inorganic nitrogen in soil solution. Inputs required are: 1 temporal sequences of carbon fluxes and pools- 2 time series of hydrological discharge through the soils, 3 historical and current external sources of inorganic nitrogen; 4 current amounts of nitrogen in the plant and soil organic compartments; 5 constants specifying the nitrogen uptake and immobilization characteristics of the plant and soil organic compartments; and 6 soil characteristics such as depth, porosity, bulk density, and anion/cation exchange constants. Outputs include: 1 concentrations and fluxes of NO3 and NH4 in soil solution and runoff; 2 total nitrogen contents of the organic and inorganic compartments; 3 C:N ratios of the aggregated plant and soil organic compartments; and 4 rates of nitrogen uptake and immobilization and nitrogen mineralization. The behaviour of the model is assessed for a combination of land-use change and nitrogen deposition scenarios in a series of speculative simulations. The results of the simulations are in broad agreement with observed and hypothesized behaviour of nitrogen

Ecosystem service enhancement for the alleviation of wildlife-human conflicts in the Aravalli Hills, Rajasthan, India.

OpenAIRE

Everard, M.; Khandal, D.; Sahu, Y. K.; University of the West of England; Tiger Watch; Ranthambhore Tiger Reserve

2017-01-01

Conflict between people and ecosystem capacity is a global problem, and achievement of wildlife-human co-existence a strategic global need. Apex predators suffer disproportionately, including conflicts with human activities. Recovery of formerly declining predator populations, particularly India’s Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris), increases potential human conflict. Habitat conversion for arable production and proliferation of non-native tree species increases likelihood of conflict betw...

A hierarchical analysis of terrestrial ecosystem model Biome-BGC: Equilibrium analysis and model calibration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Wang, Weile [ORNL; Law, Beverly E. [Oregon State University; Nemani, Ramakrishna R [NASA Ames Research Center

2009-01-01

The increasing complexity of ecosystem models represents a major difficulty in tuning model parameters and analyzing simulated results. To address this problem, this study develops a hierarchical scheme that simplifies the Biome-BGC model into three functionally cascaded tiers and analyzes them sequentially. The first-tier model focuses on leaf-level ecophysiological processes; it simulates evapotranspiration and photosynthesis with prescribed leaf area index (LAI). The restriction on LAI is then lifted in the following two model tiers, which analyze how carbon and nitrogen is cycled at the whole-plant level (the second tier) and in all litter/soil pools (the third tier) to dynamically support the prescribed canopy. In particular, this study analyzes the steady state of these two model tiers by a set of equilibrium equations that are derived from Biome-BGC algorithms and are based on the principle of mass balance. Instead of spinning-up the model for thousands of climate years, these equations are able to estimate carbon/nitrogen stocks and fluxes of the target (steady-state) ecosystem directly from the results obtained by the first-tier model. The model hierarchy is examined with model experiments at four AmeriFlux sites. The results indicate that the proposed scheme can effectively calibrate Biome-BGC to simulate observed fluxes of evapotranspiration and photosynthesis; and the carbon/nitrogen stocks estimated by the equilibrium analysis approach are highly consistent with the results of model simulations. Therefore, the scheme developed in this study may serve as a practical guide to calibrate/analyze Biome-BGC; it also provides an efficient way to solve the problem of model spin-up, especially for applications over large regions. The same methodology may help analyze other similar ecosystem models as well.

Ecosystem services altered by human changes in the nitrogen cycle: a new perspective for US decision making Ecology Letters

Science.gov (United States)

The human alteration of the nitrogen (N) cycle has yielded many benefits, but also has altered ecosystems and degraded air and water quality in many areas. Here we explore the science available to connect the effects of increasing N on ecosystem structure and function to ecosyst...

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, P. E.; Calvin, K. V.; Jones, A. D.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Shi, X.; Mao, J.; Collins, W. D.; Edmonds, J.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. In this work we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Land ecosystem response to increased carbon dioxide concentration, increased anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and changes in temperature and precipitation all play a role. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated in this work are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.

Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: a case study for the Southern Rocky Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Reed, James; Semmens, Darius J.; Sherrouse, Ben C.; Troy, Austin

2016-01-01

Through extensive research, ecosystem services have been mapped using both survey-based and biophysical approaches, but comparative mapping of public values and those quantified using models has been lacking. In this paper, we mapped hot and cold spots for perceived and modeled ecosystem services by synthesizing results from a social-values mapping study of residents living near the Pike–San Isabel National Forest (PSI), located in the Southern Rocky Mountains, with corresponding biophysically modeled ecosystem services. Social-value maps for the PSI were developed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services tool, providing statistically modeled continuous value surfaces for 12 value types, including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values. Biophysically modeled maps of carbon sequestration and storage, scenic viewsheds, sediment regulation, and water yield were generated using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services tool. Hotspots for both perceived and modeled services were disproportionately located within the PSI’s wilderness areas. Additionally, we used regression analysis to evaluate spatial relationships between perceived biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services and corresponding biophysical model outputs. Our goal was to determine whether publicly valued locations for aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values relate meaningfully to results from corresponding biophysical ecosystem service models. We found weak relationships between perceived and biophysically modeled services, indicating that public perception of ecosystem service provisioning regions is limited. We believe that biophysical and social approaches to ecosystem service mapping can serve as methodological complements that can advance ecosystem services-based resource management, benefitting resource managers by showing potential locations of synergy or conflict between areas supplying ecosystem services and those valued by the public.

Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

Ecosystem element transport model for Lake Eckarfjaerden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Konovalenko, L.; Bradshaw, C. [The Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University (Sweden); Andersson, E.; Kautsky, U. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. - SKB (Sweden)

2014-07-01

The ecosystem transport model of elements was developed for Lake Eckarfjaerden located in the Forsmark area in Sweden. Forsmark has currently a low level repository (SFR) and a repository for spent fuel is planned. A large number of data collected during site-investigation program 2002-2009 for planning the repository were available for the creation of the compartment model based on carbon circulation, physical and biological processes (e.g. primary production, consumption, respiration). The model is site-specific in the sense that the food web model is adapted to the actual food web at the site, and most estimates of biomass and metabolic rates for the organisms and meteorological data originate from site data. The functional organism groups of Lake Eckarfjaerden were considered as separate compartments: bacterio-plankton, benthic bacteria, macro-algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, benthic fauna. Two functional groups of bacteria were taken into account for the reason that they have the highest biomass of all functional groups during the winter, comprising 36% of the total biomass. Effects of ecological parameters, such as bacteria and algae biomass, on redistribution of a hypothetical radionuclide release in the lake were examined. The ecosystem model was used to estimate the environmental transfer of several elements (U, Th, Ra) and their isotopes (U-238, U-234,Th-232, Ra-226) to various aquatic organisms in the lake, using element-specific distribution coefficients for suspended particle and sediment. Results of chemical analyses of the water, sediment and biota were used for model validation. The model gives estimates of concentration factors for fish based on modelling rather on in situ measurement, which reduces the uncertainties for many radionuclides with scarce of data. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

A Technology-Neutral Role-Based Collaboration Model for Software Ecosystems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stanciulescu, Stefan; Rabiser, Daniela; Seidl, Christoph

2016-01-01

by contributing a role-based collaboration model for software ecosystems to make such implicit similarities explicit and to raise awareness among developers during their ongoing efforts. We extract this model based on realization artifacts in a specific programming language located in a particular source code......In large-scale software ecosystems, many developers contribute extensions to a common software platform. Due to the independent development efforts and the lack of a central steering mechanism, similar functionality may be developed multiple times by different developers. We tackle this problem...... efforts and information of ongoing development efforts. Finally, using the collaborations defined in the formalism we model real artifacts from Marlin, a firmware for 3D printers, and we show that for the selected scenarios, the five collaborations were sufficient to raise awareness and make implicit...

Socio-ecosystems and urban habitats

Science.gov (United States)

Margarita V. Alario

2007-01-01

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)—a United Nations effort to assess the health of major global ecosystems—reported that over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable time in history. Around two thirds of the ecosystems services (anything from fresh water to air) are being degraded or used unsustainably...

A metaproteomic approach to study human-microbial ecosystems at the mucosal luminal interface.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoxiao Li

Full Text Available Aberrant interactions between the host and the intestinal bacteria are thought to contribute to the pathogenesis of many digestive diseases. However, studying the complex ecosystem at the human mucosal-luminal interface (MLI is challenging and requires an integrative systems biology approach. Therefore, we developed a novel method integrating lavage sampling of the human mucosal surface, high-throughput proteomics, and a unique suite of bioinformatic and statistical analyses. Shotgun proteomic analysis of secreted proteins recovered from the MLI confirmed the presence of both human and bacterial components. To profile the MLI metaproteome, we collected 205 mucosal lavage samples from 38 healthy subjects, and subjected them to high-throughput proteomics. The spectral data were subjected to a rigorous data processing pipeline to optimize suitability for quantitation and analysis, and then were evaluated using a set of biostatistical tools. Compared to the mucosal transcriptome, the MLI metaproteome was enriched for extracellular proteins involved in response to stimulus and immune system processes. Analysis of the metaproteome revealed significant individual-related as well as anatomic region-related (biogeographic features. Quantitative shotgun proteomics established the identity and confirmed the biogeographic association of 49 proteins (including 3 functional protein networks demarcating the proximal and distal colon. This robust and integrated proteomic approach is thus effective for identifying functional features of the human mucosal ecosystem, and a fresh understanding of the basic biology and disease processes at the MLI.

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, J. M.

2013-12-01

Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

Strong and nonlinear effects of fragmentation on ecosystem service provision at multiple scales

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Matthew G. E.; Bennett, Elena M.; Gonzalez, Andrew

2015-09-01

Human actions, such as converting natural land cover to agricultural or urban land, result in the loss and fragmentation of natural habitat, with important consequences for the provision of ecosystem services. Such habitat loss is especially important for services that are supplied by fragments of natural land cover and that depend on flows of organisms, matter, or people across the landscape to produce benefits, such as pollination, pest regulation, recreation and cultural services. However, our quantitative knowledge about precisely how different patterns of landscape fragmentation might affect the provision of these types of services is limited. We used a simple, spatially explicit model to evaluate the potential impact of natural land cover loss and fragmentation on the provision of hypothetical ecosystem services. Based on current literature, we assumed that fragments of natural land cover provide ecosystem services to the area surrounding them in a distance-dependent manner such that ecosystem service flow depended on proximity to fragments. We modeled seven different patterns of natural land cover loss across landscapes that varied in the overall level of landscape fragmentation. Our model predicts that natural land cover loss will have strong and unimodal effects on ecosystem service provision, with clear thresholds indicating rapid loss of service provision beyond critical levels of natural land cover loss. It also predicts the presence of a tradeoff between maximizing ecosystem service provision and conserving natural land cover, and a mismatch between ecosystem service provision at landscape versus finer spatial scales. Importantly, the pattern of landscape fragmentation mitigated or intensified these tradeoffs and mismatches. Our model suggests that managing patterns of natural land cover loss and fragmentation could help influence the provision of multiple ecosystem services and manage tradeoffs and synergies between services across different human

Modeling Soil Quality Thresholds to Ecosystem Recovery at Fort Benning, Georgia, USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garten Jr., C.T.

2004-03-08

The objective of this research was to use a simple model of soil C and N dynamics to predict nutrient thresholds to ecosystem recovery on degraded soils at Fort Benning, Georgia, in the southeastern USA. The model calculates aboveground and belowground biomass, soil C inputs and dynamics, soil N stocks and availability, and plant N requirements. A threshold is crossed when predicted soil N supplies fall short of predicted N required to sustain biomass accrual at a specified recovery rate. Four factors were important to development of thresholds to recovery: (1) initial amounts of aboveground biomass, (2) initial soil C stocks (i.e., soil quality), (3) relative recovery rates of biomass, and (4) soil sand content. Thresholds to ecosystem recovery predicted by the model should not be interpreted independent of a specified recovery rate. Initial soil C stocks influenced the predicted patterns of recovery by both old field and forest ecosystems. Forests and old fields on soils with varying sand content had different predicted thresholds to recovery. Soil C stocks at barren sites on Fort Benning generally lie below predicted thresholds to 100% recovery of desired future ecosystem conditions defined on the basis of aboveground biomass (18000 versus 360 g m{sup -2} for forests and old fields, respectively). Calculations with the model indicated that reestablishment of vegetation on barren sites to a level below the desired future condition is possible at recovery rates used in the model, but the time to 100% recovery of desired future conditions, without crossing a nutrient threshold, is prolonged by a reduced rate of forest growth. Predicted thresholds to ecosystem recovery were less on soils with more than 70% sand content. The lower thresholds for old field and forest recovery on more sandy soils are apparently due to higher relative rates of net soil N mineralization in more sandy soils. Calculations with the model indicate that a combination of desired future

[Ecosystem services evaluation based on geographic information system and remote sensing technology: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wen-Jie; Zhang, Shi-Huang; Wang, Hui-Min

2011-12-01

Ecosystem services evaluation is a hot topic in current ecosystem management, and has a close link with human beings welfare. This paper summarized the research progress on the evaluation of ecosystem services based on geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology, which could be reduced to the following three characters, i. e., ecological economics theory is widely applied as a key method in quantifying ecosystem services, GIS and RS technology play a key role in multi-source data acquisition, spatiotemporal analysis, and integrated platform, and ecosystem mechanism model becomes a powerful tool for understanding the relationships between natural phenomena and human activities. Aiming at the present research status and its inadequacies, this paper put forward an "Assembly Line" framework, which was a distributed one with scalable characteristics, and discussed the future development trend of the integration research on ecosystem services evaluation based on GIS and RS technologies.

Towards ecosystem-based management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tam, Jamie C.; Link, Jason S.; Rossberg, Axel G.; Rogers, Stuart I.; Levin, Philip S.; Rochet, Marie-Joelle; Bundy, Alida; Belgrano, Andrea; Libralato, Simone; Tomczak, Maciej; Wolfshaar, van de K.E.; Pranovi, Fabio; Gorokhova, Elena; Large, Scott I.; Niquil, Nathalie; Greenstreet, Simon P.R.; Druon, Jean-Noel; Lesutiene, Jurate; Johansen, Marie; Preciado, Izaskun; Patricio, Joana; Palialexis, Andreas; Tett, Paul; Johansen, Geir O.; Houle, Jennifer; Rindorf, Anna

2017-01-01

Modern approaches to Ecosystem-Based Management and sustainable use of marine resources must account for the myriad of pressures (interspecies, human and environmental) affecting marine ecosystems. The network of feeding interactions between co-existing species and populations (food webs) are an

Preliminary analysis of the Jimo coastal ecosystem with the ecopath model

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Meng

2016-12-01

The Jimo coast encompasses an area of 2157 km2, and the ecosystem is valuable both socially and economically with regional fisheries substantially contributing to the value. A mass-balanced trophic model consisting of 15 functional ecological groups was developed for the coastal ecosystem using the Ecopath model in Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software (version 6.4.3). The results of the model simulations indicated that the trophic levels of the functional groups varied between 1.0 and 3.76, and the total production of the system was estimated to be 5112.733 t km-2 yr-1 with a total energy transfer efficiency of 17.6%. The proportion of the total flow originating from detritus was estimated to be 48%, whereas that from primary producers was 52%, indicating that the grazing food chain dominated the energy flow. The ratio of total primary productivity to total respiration in the system was 3.78, and the connectivity index was 0.4. The fin cycling index and the mean path length of the energy flow were 4.92% and 2.57%, respectively, which indicated that the ecosystem exhibits relatively low maturity and stability. The mixed trophic impact (MTI) procedure suggested that the ecological groups at lower trophic levels dominated the feeding dynamics in the Jimo coastal ecosystem. Overfishing is thought to be the primary reason for the degeneration of the Jimo coastal ecosystem, resulting in a decline in the abundance of pelagic and demersal fish species and a subsequent shift to the predominance of lower-trophic-level functional groups. Finally, we offered some recommendations for improving current fishery management practices.

Ecosystem services as a common language for coastal ecosystem-based management.

Science.gov (United States)

Granek, Elise F; Polasky, Stephen; Kappel, Carrie V; Reed, Denise J; Stoms, David M; Koch, Evamaria W; Kennedy, Chris J; Cramer, Lori A; Hacker, Sally D; Barbier, Edward B; Aswani, Shankar; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Perillo, Gerardo M E; Silliman, Brian R; Muthiga, Nyawira; Bael, David; Wolanski, Eric

2010-02-01

Ecosystem-based management is logistically and politically challenging because ecosystems are inherently complex and management decisions affect a multitude of groups. Coastal ecosystems, which lie at the interface between marine and terrestrial ecosystems and provide an array of ecosystem services to different groups, aptly illustrate these challenges. Successful ecosystem-based management of coastal ecosystems requires incorporating scientific information and the knowledge and views of interested parties into the decision-making process. Estimating the provision of ecosystem services under alternative management schemes offers a systematic way to incorporate biogeophysical and socioeconomic information and the views of individuals and groups in the policy and management process. Employing ecosystem services as a common language to improve the process of ecosystem-based management presents both benefits and difficulties. Benefits include a transparent method for assessing trade-offs associated with management alternatives, a common set of facts and common currency on which to base negotiations, and improved communication among groups with competing interests or differing worldviews. Yet challenges to this approach remain, including predicting how human interventions will affect ecosystems, how such changes will affect the provision of ecosystem services, and how changes in service provision will affect the welfare of different groups in society. In a case study from Puget Sound, Washington, we illustrate the potential of applying ecosystem services as a common language for ecosystem-based management.

Modelling impacts of second generation bioenergy production on Ecosystem Services in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Henner, D. N.; Smith, P.; Davies, C.; McNamara, N. P.

2016-12-01

Bioenergy crops are an important source of renewable energy and likely to play a major role in transitioning to a lower CO2 energy system. There is, however, uncertainty about the impacts of the growth of bioenergy crops on broader sustainability encompassed by ecosystem services, further enhanced by ongoing climate change. The goal of this project is to develop a comprehensive model that covers ecosystem services at a continental scale including biodiversity and pollination, water and air security, erosion control and soil security, GHG emissions, soil C and cultural services like tourism value. The technical distribution potential and likely yield of second generation energy crops, such as Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC; willow and poplar) was modelled using ECOSSE, DayCent, SalixFor and MiscanFor models. In addition, methods like water footprint tools, tourism value maps and ecosystem valuation tools and models are utilised. We will present results for synergies and trade-offs between land use change and ecosystem services, impact on food security and land management. Further, we will show modelled yield maps for different cultivars of Miscanthus, willow and poplar in Europe and constraint/opportunity maps based on projected yield and other factors e.g. total economic value, technical potential, current land use, climate change and trade-offs and synergies. It will be essential to include multiple ecosystem services when assessing the potential for bioenergy production/expansion that does not impact other land uses or provisioning services. Considering that the soil GHG balance is dominated by change in soil organic carbon (SOC) and the difference among Miscanthus and SRC is largely determined by yield, an important target for management of perennial energy crops is to achieve the best possible yield using the most appropriate energy crop and cultivar for the local situation. This research could inform future policy decisions on bioenergy crops in

Impact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, Shereif H; Gan, Thian Y

2018-08-15

The implications of anthropogenic climate change, human activities and land use change (LUC) on the environment and ecosystem services in the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia were analyzed. Earth observations data was used to drive land use categories between 1970 and 2014. Next, a Markov-CA model was developed to characterize the dynamic of LUC between 2014 and 2100 and their impacts on regions' climate and environment. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases data to investigate the presence of anthropogenic climate change. Lastly, climate models were used to project future climate change between 2014 and 2100. The analysis of LUC revealed that between 1970 and 2014, built up areas experienced the greatest growth during the study period, leading to a significant monotonic trend. Urban areas increased by 2349.61km 2 between 1970 and 2014, an average increase of >53.4km 2 /yr. The projected LUC between 2014 and 2100 indicate a continued increase in urban areas and irrigated cropland. Human alteration of land use from natural vegetation and forests to other uses after 1970, resulted in a loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which usually have devastating effects on the biodiversity of the region. Resulting in a statistically significant change point in temperature anomaly after 1968 with a warming trend of 0.24°C/decade and a downward trend in precipitation anomaly of 12.2mm/decade. Total greenhouse gas emissions including all anthropogenic sources showed a statistically significant positive trend of 78,090Kt/decade after 1991. This is reflected in the future projection of temperature anomaly between 1900 and 2100 with a future warming trend of 0.19°C/decade. In conclusion, human activities, industrial revelation, deforestation, land use transformation and increase in greenhouse gases had significant implications on the environment and ecosystem services of the study area

Solute transport by groundwater flow to wetland ecosystems : the environmental impact of human activities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schot, P.P.

1991-01-01

This thesis deals with solute transport by groundwater flow and the way in which solute transport is affected by human activities. This in relation to wetland ecosystems. Wetlands in the eastern part of the Vecht river plain in The Netherlands are historically renown for their great variety of

Perfluorinated compounds: Levels, trophic web enrichments and human dietary intakes in transitional water ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renzi, Monia; Guerranti, Cristiana; Giovani, Andrea; Perra, Guido; Focardi, Silvano E.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • PFOA/S levels in a trophic web of a heavily human-stressed lagoon are measured. • High levels were found in mussels, clams and crabs. • The principal PFCs inflow sources for the ecosystem is the river. • Biota (i.e. macroalgae proliferation) contributes to redistribute pollutants in the lagoon. • Human daily dietary intakes are below maximum tolerable levels suggested by the EFSA. -- Abstract: The results of a study on levels of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), analyzed in terms of HPLC-ESI-MS in water, sediment, macrophyte, bivalve, crustacean and fish samples, are reported here. The aim of the research is to define, for the first time, PFOA/S levels in a heavily human-stressed transitional water ecosystem (Orbetello lagoon, Italy) and evaluate trophic web enrichments and human dietary intakes. The results obtained show that: (i) levels significantly higher than those reported in the literature were found in mussels, clams and crabs; (ii) the river is a significant pollution source; (iii) although absolute levels are relatively low, macroalgae proliferation contributes to redistribute pollutants from river-affected areas throughout the entire lagoon basin; (iv) to the best of our current knowledge, water-filtering species considered in this study are the most exposed to PFOA/S pollution; (v) human daily dietary intakes of PFOA/S through Slow Food-endorsed product consumption are below maximum tolerable levels suggested by the EFSA

Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystem at Oeregrundsgrepen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Sandberg, Johannes [DHI, Hoersholm (Denmark)

2010-06-15

The aim of the work was to provide supplementary input to the risk assessment of a planned final nuclear waste repository at Forsmark. The main deliverable was a computed water exchange between basins in the Forsmark marine area for the period 6500 BC to 9000 AD - based on the hydrodynamic modelling - to be used as input to the landscape dose model. In addition and what is described in this report, a second deliverable was development and application of high-resolution models for the marine ecosystem and radionuclide processes. The purpose of this deliverable was to illustrate the spatial and temporal variation in important processes and parameters, while constituting a complement to previous modelling approaches and providing supporting information to discussions of the marine ecosystem, parameters and variation (see Chapter 4 and 6).To this end, a hydrodynamic model of high temporal and spatial resolution was constructed and calibrated for the Forsmark area. An ecosystem model was then developed and coupled to the hydrodynamic model. In turn, a detailed radionuclide model was coupled to the ecosystem model to provide detailed predictions of radionuclide transport and accumulation in the coastal ecosystem. The ecosystem and radionuclide models were developed in the equation solver MIKE ECOLab that links seamless to the MIKE3 FM hydrodynamic model. The 'standard' ECOLab ecosystem model was extended with six biological state variables, perennial macroalgae, benthic herbivors, detritus feeders, planktivorus fish and, benthic predators representing the relict isopod Saduria and cod. In contrast to the ecosystem model, the radionuclide model was developed from scratch but building on the structure of the ecosystem model and using the output (process rates linking state variables) from the ecosystem model as input to the radionuclide model. Both the ecosystem model and the radionuclide model were run for several years (5-8 years) to bring state variables into quasi

Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystem at Oeregrundsgrepen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Sandberg, Johannes (DHI, Hoersholm (Denmark))

2010-06-15

The aim of the work was to provide supplementary input to the risk assessment of a planned final nuclear waste repository at Forsmark. The main deliverable was a computed water exchange between basins in the Forsmark marine area for the period 6500 BC to 9000 AD - based on the hydrodynamic modelling - to be used as input to the landscape dose model. In addition and what is described in this report, a second deliverable was development and application of high-resolution models for the marine ecosystem and radionuclide processes. The purpose of this deliverable was to illustrate the spatial and temporal variation in important processes and parameters, while constituting a complement to previous modelling approaches and providing supporting information to discussions of the marine ecosystem, parameters and variation (see Chapter 4 and 6).To this end, a hydrodynamic model of high temporal and spatial resolution was constructed and calibrated for the Forsmark area. An ecosystem model was then developed and coupled to the hydrodynamic model. In turn, a detailed radionuclide model was coupled to the ecosystem model to provide detailed predictions of radionuclide transport and accumulation in the coastal ecosystem. The ecosystem and radionuclide models were developed in the equation solver MIKE ECOLab that links seamless to the MIKE3 FM hydrodynamic model. The 'standard' ECOLab ecosystem model was extended with six biological state variables, perennial macroalgae, benthic herbivors, detritus feeders, planktivorus fish and, benthic predators representing the relict isopod Saduria and cod. In contrast to the ecosystem model, the radionuclide model was developed from scratch but building on the structure of the ecosystem model and using the output (process rates linking state variables) from the ecosystem model as input to the radionuclide model. Both the ecosystem model and the radionuclide model were run for several years (5-8 years) to bring state variables into

Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystem at Oeregrundsgrepen

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Sandberg, Johannes

2010-06-01

The aim of the work was to provide supplementary input to the risk assessment of a planned final nuclear waste repository at Forsmark. The main deliverable was a computed water exchange between basins in the Forsmark marine area for the period 6500 BC to 9000 AD - based on the hydrodynamic modelling - to be used as input to the landscape dose model. In addition and what is described in this report, a second deliverable was development and application of high-resolution models for the marine ecosystem and radionuclide processes. The purpose of this deliverable was to illustrate the spatial and temporal variation in important processes and parameters, while constituting a complement to previous modelling approaches and providing supporting information to discussions of the marine ecosystem, parameters and variation (see Chapter 4 and 6).To this end, a hydrodynamic model of high temporal and spatial resolution was constructed and calibrated for the Forsmark area. An ecosystem model was then developed and coupled to the hydrodynamic model. In turn, a detailed radionuclide model was coupled to the ecosystem model to provide detailed predictions of radionuclide transport and accumulation in the coastal ecosystem. The ecosystem and radionuclide models were developed in the equation solver MIKE ECOLab that links seamless to the MIKE3 FM hydrodynamic model. The 'standard' ECOLab ecosystem model was extended with six biological state variables, perennial macroalgae, benthic herbivors, detritus feeders, planktivorus fish and, benthic predators representing the relict isopod Saduria and cod. In contrast to the ecosystem model, the radionuclide model was developed from scratch but building on the structure of the ecosystem model and using the output (process rates linking state variables) from the ecosystem model as input to the radionuclide model. Both the ecosystem model and the radionuclide model were run for several years (5-8 years) to bring state variables into quasi

Environmental fate of rice paddy pesticides in a model ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomizawa, C; Kazano, H

1979-01-01

The distribution and metabolic fate of several rice paddy pesticides were evaluated in a modified model ecosystem. Among the three BHC isomers, beta-isomer was the most stable and bioconcentrated in all of the organisms. Alpha- and gamma-isomers were moderately persistent and degraded to some extent during the 33 day period. Disulfoton was relatively persistent due to the transformation to its oxidation products. Pyridaphenthion was fairly biodegradable. N-Phenyl maleic hydrazide derived from the hydrolysis of pyridaphenthion was not detected in the organisms though it was found in the aquarium water after 33 days. Cartap and edifenphos were considerably biodegradable, and the ratio of the conversion to water soluble metabolites was very high. There was a distinct difference in the persistence of Kitazin P and edifenphos in the aquarium water. It appeared that the hydrolysis rate of the pesticides affected their fate in the organisms. PCP appeared to be moderately biodegradable. CNP was considerably stable and stored in the organisms though the concentration in the aquarium water was relatively low. The persistence and distribution of the pesticides in the model ecosystem were dependent on their chemical structures. In spite of the limitation derived from short experimental period, the model ecosystem may be applicable for predicting the environmental fate of pesticides.

Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Qishuang; Yang, Bin; He, Wei; Xu, Fuliu; Janssen, Annette B G; Kuiper, Jan J; van Gerven, Luuk P A; Qin, Ning; Jiang, Yujiao; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Chen; Bai, Zelin; Zhang, Min; Kong, Fanxiang; Janse, Jan H; Mooij, Wolf M

2017-02-01

Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such 'regime shifts' can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long-term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi-objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when

Scientific Foundations for an IUCN Red List of Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Keith, David A.; Rodríguez, Jon Paul; Rodríguez-Clark, Kathryn M.; Nicholson, Emily; Aapala, Kaisu; Alonso, Alfonso; Asmussen, Marianne; Bachman, Steven; Basset, Alberto; Barrow, Edmund G.; Benson, John S.; Bishop, Melanie J.; Bonifacio, Ronald; Brooks, Thomas M.; Burgman, Mark A.; Comer, Patrick; Comín, Francisco A.; Essl, Franz; Faber-Langendoen, Don; Fairweather, Peter G.; Holdaway, Robert J.; Jennings, Michael; Kingsford, Richard T.; Lester, Rebecca E.; Nally, Ralph Mac; McCarthy, Michael A.; Moat, Justin; Oliveira-Miranda, María A.; Pisanu, Phil; Poulin, Brigitte; Regan, Tracey J.; Riecken, Uwe; Spalding, Mark D.; Zambrano-Martínez, Sergio

2013-01-01

An understanding of risks to biodiversity is needed for planning action to slow current rates of decline and secure ecosystem services for future human use. Although the IUCN Red List criteria provide an effective assessment protocol for species, a standard global assessment of risks to higher levels of biodiversity is currently limited. In 2008, IUCN initiated development of risk assessment criteria to support a global Red List of ecosystems. We present a new conceptual model for ecosystem risk assessment founded on a synthesis of relevant ecological theories. To support the model, we review key elements of ecosystem definition and introduce the concept of ecosystem collapse, an analogue of species extinction. The model identifies four distributional and functional symptoms of ecosystem risk as a basis for assessment criteria: A) rates of decline in ecosystem distribution; B) restricted distributions with continuing declines or threats; C) rates of environmental (abiotic) degradation; and D) rates of disruption to biotic processes. A fifth criterion, E) quantitative estimates of the risk of ecosystem collapse, enables integrated assessment of multiple processes and provides a conceptual anchor for the other criteria. We present the theoretical rationale for the construction and interpretation of each criterion. The assessment protocol and threat categories mirror those of the IUCN Red List of species. A trial of the protocol on terrestrial, subterranean, freshwater and marine ecosystems from around the world shows that its concepts are workable and its outcomes are robust, that required data are available, and that results are consistent with assessments carried out by local experts and authorities. The new protocol provides a consistent, practical and theoretically grounded framework for establishing a systematic Red List of the world’s ecosystems. This will complement the Red List of species and strengthen global capacity to report on and monitor the status of

Scientific foundations for an IUCN Red List of ecosystems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David A Keith

Full Text Available An understanding of risks to biodiversity is needed for planning action to slow current rates of decline and secure ecosystem services for future human use. Although the IUCN Red List criteria provide an effective assessment protocol for species, a standard global assessment of risks to higher levels of biodiversity is currently limited. In 2008, IUCN initiated development of risk assessment criteria to support a global Red List of ecosystems. We present a new conceptual model for ecosystem risk assessment founded on a synthesis of relevant ecological theories. To support the model, we review key elements of ecosystem definition and introduce the concept of ecosystem collapse, an analogue of species extinction. The model identifies four distributional and functional symptoms of ecosystem risk as a basis for assessment criteria: A rates of decline in ecosystem distribution; B restricted distributions with continuing declines or threats; C rates of environmental (abiotic degradation; and D rates of disruption to biotic processes. A fifth criterion, E quantitative estimates of the risk of ecosystem collapse, enables integrated assessment of multiple processes and provides a conceptual anchor for the other criteria. We present the theoretical rationale for the construction and interpretation of each criterion. The assessment protocol and threat categories mirror those of the IUCN Red List of species. A trial of the protocol on terrestrial, subterranean, freshwater and marine ecosystems from around the world shows that its concepts are workable and its outcomes are robust, that required data are available, and that results are consistent with assessments carried out by local experts and authorities. The new protocol provides a consistent, practical and theoretically grounded framework for establishing a systematic Red List of the world's ecosystems. This will complement the Red List of species and strengthen global capacity to report on and monitor

Puget Sound ocean acidification model outputs - Modeling the impacts of ocean acidification on ecosystems and populations

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NWFSC OA team will model the effects of ocean acidification on regional marine species and ecosystems using food web models, life-cycle models, and bioenvelope...

Changes in Nature's Balance Sheet: Model-based Estimates of Future Worldwide Ecosystem Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph Alcamo

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Four quantitative scenarios are presented that describe changes in worldwide ecosystem services up to 2050-2100. A set of soft-linked global models of human demography, economic development, climate, and biospheric processes are used to quantify these scenarios. The global demand for ecosystem services substantially increases up to 2050: cereal consumption by a factor of 1.5 to 1.7, fish consumption (up to the 2020s by a factor of 1.3 to 1.4, water withdrawals by a factor of 1.3 to 2.0, and biofuel production by a factor of 5.1 to 11.3. The ranges for these estimates reflect differences between the socio-economic assumptions of the scenarios. In all simulations, Sub-Saharan Africa continues to lag behind other parts of the world. Although the demand side of these scenarios presents an overall optimistic view of the future, the supply side is less optimistic: the risk of higher soil erosion (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and lower water availability (especially in the Middle East could slow down an increase in food production. Meanwhile, increasing wastewater discharges during the same period, especially in Latin America (factor of 2 to 4 and Sub-Saharan Africa (factor of 3.6 to 5.6 could interfere with the delivery of freshwater services. Marine fisheries (despite the growth of aquaculture may not have the ecological capacity to provide for the increased global demand for fish. Our simulations also show an intensification of present tradeoffs between ecosystem services, e.g., expansion of agricultural land (between 2000 and 2050 may be one of the main causes of a 10%-20% loss of total current grassland and forest land and the ecosystem services associated with this land (e.g., genetic resources, wood production, habitat for terrestrial biota and fauna. The scenarios also show that certain hot-spot regions may experience especially rapid changes in ecosystem services: the central part of Africa, southern Asia, and the Middle East. In general

The perils and promises of microbial abundance: novel natures and model ecosystems, from artisanal cheese to alien seas.

Science.gov (United States)

Paxson, Heather; Helmreich, Stefan

2014-04-01

Microbial life has been much in the news. From outbreaks of Escherichia coli to discussions of the benefits of raw and fermented foods to recent reports of life forms capable of living in extreme environments, the modest microbe has become a figure for thinking through the presents and possible futures of nature, writ large as well as small. Noting that dominant representations of microbial life have shifted from an idiom of peril to one of promise, we argue that microbes--especially when thriving as microbial communities--are being upheld as model ecosystems in a prescriptive sense, as tokens of how organisms and human ecological relations with them could, should, or might be. We do so in reference to two case studies: the regulatory politics of artisanal cheese and the speculative research of astrobiology. To think of and with microbial communities as model ecosystems offers a corrective to the scientific determinisms we detect in some recent calls to attend to the materiality of scientific objects.

The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klos, Richard

2008-03-15

An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klos, Richard

2008-03-01

An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

Modelling C₃ photosynthesis from the chloroplast to the ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernacchi, Carl J; Bagley, Justin E; Serbin, Shawn P; Ruiz-Vera, Ursula M; Rosenthal, David M; Vanloocke, Andy

2013-09-01

Globally, photosynthesis accounts for the largest flux of CO₂ from the atmosphere into ecosystems and is the driving process for terrestrial ecosystem function. The importance of accurate predictions of photosynthesis over a range of plant growth conditions led to the development of a C₃ photosynthesis model by Farquhar, von Caemmerer & Berry that has become increasingly important as society places greater pressures on vegetation. The photosynthesis model has played a major role in defining the path towards scientific understanding of photosynthetic carbon uptake and the role of photosynthesis on regulating the earth's climate and biogeochemical systems. In this review, we summarize the photosynthesis model, including its continued development and applications. We also review the implications these developments have on quantifying photosynthesis at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, and discuss the model's role in determining photosynthetic responses to changes in environmental conditions. Finally, the review includes a discussion of the larger-scale modelling and remote-sensing applications that rely on the leaf photosynthesis model and are likely to open new scientific avenues to address the increasing challenges to plant productivity over the next century. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Can models help to forecast rainwater dynamics for rainfed ecosystem?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mukhtar Ahmed

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Simulation models are important tools to explore and illustrate dynamics of climatic variables in crop based ecosystem. In the rainfed ecosystem (RE, wheat production is impinged on certain climatic events per se high variability in rainfall and increased temperature. These climatic events turn out due to climatic drivers like Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs and pressure. Current study is aimed to analyze long term rainfall data (1961–2011 of Pakistan׳s rainfed ecosystem zone (Islamabad, Chakwal and Talagang by using Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM and R model. The principal objective of this analysis was to study the link between SOI phases and SSTs; and thereby understanding the pattern of climate change due to these climatic drivers under rainfed conditions in Pakistan. The results revealed a positive link between July SOI phases and the rainfall variability during October–November (the sowing time of wheat in Pakistan. Long term rainfall data analysis (1961–2011 of Islamabad, Chakwal and Talagang revealed 44%, 40%, 35% possibility of exceeding median rainfall near zero whereas probability of consistently negative SOI phases were 35%, 34% and 33% respectively during July. Similarly, the forecasting results estimated by R using covariates like dry spell, NINO1.2, NINO3, NINO4, NINO3.4 and IOD of different months revealed that prediction of monsoon, wheat early growth, wheat grain filling period and total wheat growing season rainfall, have significant signals with climatic drivers. The study justified the importance of models in the decision making processes and rainfall forecasting as a beneficial and necessary tool for rainfed ecosystem conservation.

Untangling human development and natural gradients: implications of underlying correlation structure for linking landscapes and riverine ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Yasmin Lucero; E. Ashley Steel; Kelly M. Burnett; Kelly. Christiansen

2011-01-01

Increasingly, ecologists seek to identify and quantify relationships between landscape gradients and aquatic ecosystems. Considerable statistical challenges emerge in this effort, some of which are attributable to multicollinearity between human development and landscape gradients. In this paper, we measure the covariation between human development—such as agriculture...

Ecosystem Jenga!

Science.gov (United States)

Umphlett, Natalie; Brosius, Tierney; Laungani, Ramesh; Rousseau, Joe; Leslie-Pelecky, Diandra L.

2009-01-01

To give students a tangible model of an ecosystem and have them experience what could happen if a component of that ecosystem were removed; the authors developed a hands-on, inquiry-based activity that visually demonstrates the concept of a delicately balanced ecosystem through a modification of the popular game Jenga. This activity can be…

Tools and methods for evaluating and refining alternative futures for coastal ecosystem management—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

Science.gov (United States)

Byrd, Kristin B.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Labiosa, William B.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that uses scenarios to evaluate where, when, and to what extent future population growth, urban growth, and shoreline development may threaten the Puget Sound nearshore environment. This tool was designed to be used iteratively in a workshop setting in which experts, stakeholders, and decisionmakers discuss consequences to the Puget Sound nearshore within an alternative-futures framework. The PSEPM presents three possible futures of the nearshore by analyzing three growth scenarios developed out to 2060: Status Quo—continuation of current trends; Managed Growth—adoption of an aggressive set of land-use management policies; and Unconstrained Growth—relaxation of land-use restrictions. The PSEPM focuses on nearshore environments associated with barrier and bluff-backed beaches—the most dominant shoreforms in Puget Sound—which represent 50 percent of Puget Sound shorelines by length. This report provides detailed methodologies for development of three submodels within the PSEPM—the Shellfish Pollution Model, the Beach Armoring Index, and the Recreation Visits Model. Results from the PSEPM identify where and when future changes to nearshore ecosystems and ecosystem services will likely occur within the three growth scenarios. Model outputs include maps that highlight shoreline sections where nearshore resources may be at greater risk from upland land-use changes. The background discussed in this report serves to document and supplement model results displayed on the PSEPM Web site located at http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/pugetSound/.

Improving the precision of lake ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying predictors of model uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, Kevin C.; Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Read, Emily K.; Solomon, Christopher T.; Adrian, Rita; Hanson, Paul C.

2014-01-01

Diel changes in dissolved oxygen are often used to estimate gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) in aquatic ecosystems. Despite the widespread use of this approach to understand ecosystem metabolism, we are only beginning to understand the degree and underlying causes of uncertainty for metabolism model parameter estimates. Here, we present a novel approach to improve the precision and accuracy of ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying physical metrics that indicate when metabolism estimates are highly uncertain. Using datasets from seventeen instrumented GLEON (Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network) lakes, we discovered that many physical characteristics correlated with uncertainty, including PAR (photosynthetically active radiation, 400-700 nm), daily variance in Schmidt stability, and wind speed. Low PAR was a consistent predictor of high variance in GPP model parameters, but also corresponded with low ER model parameter variance. We identified a threshold (30% of clear sky PAR) below which GPP parameter variance increased rapidly and was significantly greater in nearly all lakes compared with variance on days with PAR levels above this threshold. The relationship between daily variance in Schmidt stability and GPP model parameter variance depended on trophic status, whereas daily variance in Schmidt stability was consistently positively related to ER model parameter variance. Wind speeds in the range of ~0.8-3 m s–1 were consistent predictors of high variance for both GPP and ER model parameters, with greater uncertainty in eutrophic lakes. Our findings can be used to reduce ecosystem metabolism model parameter uncertainty and identify potential sources of that uncertainty.

A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warszawski, Lila; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Friend, Andrew; Keribin, Rozenn; Rademacher, Tim Tito; Beerling, David; Lomas, Mark; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Kleidon, Axel; Pavlick, Ryan

2013-01-01

Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest. (letter)

Convergence and Divergence in a Multi-Model Ensemble of Terrestrial Ecosystem Models in North America

Science.gov (United States)

Dungan, J. L.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Michaelis, A.; Milesi, C.; Ichii, K.; Nemani, R. R.

2009-12-01

In support of NACP, we are conducting an ensemble modeling exercise using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to evaluate uncertainties among ecosystem models, satellite datasets, and in-situ measurements. The models used in the experiment include public-domain versions of Biome-BGC, LPJ, TOPS-BGC, and CASA, driven by a consistent set of climate fields for North America at 8km resolution and daily/monthly time steps over the period of 1982-2006. The reference datasets include MODIS Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Net Primary Production (NPP) products, Fluxnet measurements, and other observational data. The simulation results and the reference datasets are consistently processed and systematically compared in the climate (temperature-precipitation) space; in particular, an alternative to the Taylor diagram is developed to facilitate model-data intercomparisons in multi-dimensional space. The key findings of this study indicate that: the simulated GPP/NPP fluxes are in general agreement with observations over forests, but are biased low (underestimated) over non-forest types; large uncertainties of biomass and soil carbon stocks are found among the models (and reference datasets), often induced by seemingly “small” differences in model parameters and implementation details; the simulated Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) mainly responds to non-respiratory disturbances (e.g. fire) in the models and therefore is difficult to compare with flux data; and the seasonality and interannual variability of NEP varies significantly among models and reference datasets. These findings highlight the problem inherent in relying on only one modeling approach to map surface carbon fluxes and emphasize the pressing necessity of expanded and enhanced monitoring systems to narrow critical structural and parametrical uncertainties among ecosystem models.

An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weijerman, M.

2015-01-01

Summary

Widespread coral reef decline, including decline in reef fish populations upon which many coastal human populations depend, have led to phase-shifts from the coral-dominated systems, found desirable by humans, to algal-dominated systems that provide less ecosystem

An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weijerman, Mariska

2015-01-01

Widespread coral reef decline, including decline in reef fish populations upon which many coastal human populations depend, have led to phase-shifts from the coral-dominated systems, found desirable by humans, to algal-dominated systems that provide less ecosystem services, and the loss of

Calibration of two complex ecosystem models with different likelihood functions

Science.gov (United States)

Hidy, Dóra; Haszpra, László; Pintér, Krisztina; Nagy, Zoltán; Barcza, Zoltán

2014-05-01

The biosphere is a sensitive carbon reservoir. Terrestrial ecosystems were approximately carbon neutral during the past centuries, but they became net carbon sinks due to climate change induced environmental change and associated CO2 fertilization effect of the atmosphere. Model studies and measurements indicate that the biospheric carbon sink can saturate in the future due to ongoing climate change which can act as a positive feedback. Robustness of carbon cycle models is a key issue when trying to choose the appropriate model for decision support. The input parameters of the process-based models are decisive regarding the model output. At the same time there are several input parameters for which accurate values are hard to obtain directly from experiments or no local measurements are available. Due to the uncertainty associated with the unknown model parameters significant bias can be experienced if the model is used to simulate the carbon and nitrogen cycle components of different ecosystems. In order to improve model performance the unknown model parameters has to be estimated. We developed a multi-objective, two-step calibration method based on Bayesian approach in order to estimate the unknown parameters of PaSim and Biome-BGC models. Biome-BGC and PaSim are a widely used biogeochemical models that simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere, and within the components of the terrestrial ecosystems (in this research the developed version of Biome-BGC is used which is referred as BBGC MuSo). Both models were calibrated regardless the simulated processes and type of model parameters. The calibration procedure is based on the comparison of measured data with simulated results via calculating a likelihood function (degree of goodness-of-fit between simulated and measured data). In our research different likelihood function formulations were used in order to examine the effect of the different model

Development of the BIOME-BGC model for the simulation of managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Fangjie; Li, Pingheng; Zhou, Guomo; Du, Huaqiang; Xu, Xiaojun; Shi, Yongjun; Mo, Lufeng; Zhou, Yufeng; Tu, Guoqing

2016-05-01

Numerical models are the most appropriate instrument for the analysis of the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems and their interactions with changing environmental conditions. The process-based model BIOME-BGC is widely used in simulation of carbon balance within vegetation, litter and soil of unmanaged ecosystems. For Moso bamboo forests, however, simulations with BIOME-BGC are inaccurate in terms of the growing season and the carbon allocation, due to the oversimplified representation of phenology. Our aim was to improve the applicability of BIOME-BGC for managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystem by implementing several new modules, including phenology, carbon allocation, and management. Instead of the simple phenology and carbon allocation representations in the original version, a periodic Moso bamboo phenology and carbon allocation module was implemented, which can handle the processes of Moso bamboo shooting and high growth during "on-year" and "off-year". Four management modules (digging bamboo shoots, selective cutting, obtruncation, fertilization) were integrated in order to quantify the functioning of managed ecosystems. The improved model was calibrated and validated using eddy covariance measurement data collected at a managed Moso bamboo forest site (Anji) during 2011-2013 years. As a result of these developments and calibrations, the performance of the model was substantially improved. Regarding the measured and modeled fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange), relative errors were decreased by 42.23%, 103.02% and 18.67%, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Eco-Health Linkages: evidence base and socio-economic considerations for linking ecosystem goods and services to human health

Science.gov (United States)

Ecosystem goods and services (EGS) are thought to play a role in protecting human health, but the empirical evidence directly linking EGS to human health outcomes is limited, and our ability to detect Eco-Health linkages is confounded by socio-economic factors. These limitations ...

The terrestrial ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loefgren, Anders [EcoAnalytica, Haegersten (Sweden); ed.

2008-12-15

This report describes the terrestrial ecosystems in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas by summarizing ecological data and data from disciplines such as hydrology, quaternary geology and chemistry. The description therefore includes a number of different processes that drive element fluxes in the ecosystems, such as net primary production, heterotrophic respiration, transpiration, and horizontal transport from land to streams and lakes. Moreover, the human appropriation of the landscape is described with regard to land use and potential and actual utilization of food resources both today and in a historical perspective

The terrestrial ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM site