WorldWideScience

Sample records for human decision processes

  1. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P

    2015-12-15

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions.

  2. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.

    2015-01-01

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions. PMID:26666393

  3. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.

    2015-01-01

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a funct...

  4. Simulation Models of Human Decision-Making Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina RIZUN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is presentation of the new concept of human decision-making process modeling via using the analogy with Automatic Control Theory. From the author's point of view this concept allows to develop and improve the theory of decision-making in terms of the study and classification of specificity of the human intellectual processes in different conditions. It was proved that the main distinguishing feature between the Heuristic / Intuitive and Rational Decision-Making Models is the presence of so-called phenomenon of "enrichment" of the input information with human propensity, hobbies, tendencies, expectations, axioms and judgments, presumptions or bias and their justification. In order to obtain additional knowledge about the basic intellectual processes as well as the possibility of modeling the decision results in various parameters characterizing the decision-maker, the complex of the simulation models was developed. These models are based on the assumptions that:  basic intellectual processes of the Rational Decision-Making Model can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the proportional-integral-derivative controller; basic intellectual processes of the Bounded Rationality and Intuitive Models can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the nonlinear elements.The taxonomy of the most typical automatic control theory elements and their compliance with certain decision-making models with a point of view of decision-making process specificity and decision-maker behavior during a certain time of professional activity was obtained.

  5. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mostert, P.; Kok, P.; Lange, F.P. de

    2015-01-01

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying

  6. Human Decision Processes: Implications for SSA Support Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picciano, P.

    2013-09-01

    Despite significant advances in computing power and artificial intelligence (AI), few critical decisions are made without a human decision maker in the loop. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) missions are both critical and complex, typically adhering to the human-in-the-loop (HITL) model. The collection of human operators injects a needed diversity of expert knowledge, experience, and authority required to successfully fulfill SSA tasking. A wealth of literature on human decision making exists citing myriad empirical studies and offering a varied set of prescriptive and descriptive models of judgment and decision making (Hastie & Dawes, 2001; Baron, 2000). Many findings have been proven sufficiently robust to allow information architects or system/interface designers to take action to improve decision processes. For the purpose of discussion, these concepts are bifurcated in two groups: 1) vulnerabilities to mitigate, and 2) capabilities to augment. These vulnerabilities and capabilities refer specifically to the decision process and should not be confused with a shortcoming or skill of a specific human operator. Thus the framing of questions and orders, the automated tools with which to collaborate, priming and contextual data, and the delivery of information all play a critical role in human judgment and choice. Evaluating the merits of any decision can be elusive; in order to constrain this discussion, ‘rational choice' will tend toward the economic model characteristics such as maximizing utility and selection consistency (e.g., if A preferred to B, and B preferred to C, than A should be preferred to C). Simple decision models often encourage one to list the pros and cons of a decision, perhaps use a weighting schema, but one way or another weigh the future benefit (or harm) of making a selection. The result (sought by the rationalist models) should drive toward higher utility. Despite notable differences in researchers' theses (to be discussed in the full

  7. Human factors influencing decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobs, Patricia A.

    1998-01-01

    This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...

  8. Group Decision Process Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøtze, John; Hijikata, Masao

    1997-01-01

    Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists.......Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists....

  9. From Performance to Decision Processes in 33 Years: A History of Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes under James C. Naylor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber

    1998-12-01

    For the past 33 years, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes has thrived under a single editor. That editor, James C. Naylor, is retiring from his long stewardship. This article chronicles the course of the journal under Jim's direction and marks some of the accomplishments and changes over the past three decades that go to his credit. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.

  10. Toward a synthesis of cognitive biases: how noisy information processing can bias human decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbert, Martin

    2012-03-01

    A single coherent framework is proposed to synthesize long-standing research on 8 seemingly unrelated cognitive decision-making biases. During the past 6 decades, hundreds of empirical studies have resulted in a variety of rules of thumb that specify how humans systematically deviate from what is normatively expected from their decisions. Several complementary generative mechanisms have been proposed to explain those cognitive biases. Here it is suggested that (at least) 8 of these empirically detected decision-making biases can be produced by simply assuming noisy deviations in the memory-based information processes that convert objective evidence (observations) into subjective estimates (decisions). An integrative framework is presented to show how similar noise-based mechanisms can lead to conservatism, the Bayesian likelihood bias, illusory correlations, biased self-other placement, subadditivity, exaggerated expectation, the confidence bias, and the hard-easy effect. Analytical tools from information theory are used to explore the nature and limitations that characterize such information processes for binary and multiary decision-making exercises. The ensuing synthesis offers formal mathematical definitions of the biases and their underlying generative mechanism, which permits a consolidated analysis of how they are related. This synthesis contributes to the larger goal of creating a coherent picture that explains the relations among the myriad of seemingly unrelated biases and their potential psychological generative mechanisms. Limitations and research questions are discussed.

  11. Predicting judicial decisions of the European Court of Human Rights: a Natural Language Processing perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaos Aletras

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent advances in Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning provide us with the tools to build predictive models that can be used to unveil patterns driving judicial decisions. This can be useful, for both lawyers and judges, as an assisting tool to rapidly identify cases and extract patterns which lead to certain decisions. This paper presents the first systematic study on predicting the outcome of cases tried by the European Court of Human Rights based solely on textual content. We formulate a binary classification task where the input of our classifiers is the textual content extracted from a case and the target output is the actual judgment as to whether there has been a violation of an article of the convention of human rights. Textual information is represented using contiguous word sequences, i.e., N-grams, and topics. Our models can predict the court’s decisions with a strong accuracy (79% on average. Our empirical analysis indicates that the formal facts of a case are the most important predictive factor. This is consistent with the theory of legal realism suggesting that judicial decision-making is significantly affected by the stimulus of the facts. We also observe that the topical content of a case is another important feature in this classification task and explore this relationship further by conducting a qualitative analysis.

  12. Human Errors in Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamad, Shahriari; Aliandrina, Dessy; Feng, Yan

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this paper was to identify human errors in decision making process. The study was focused on a research question such as: what could be the human error as a potential of decision failure in evaluation of the alternatives in the process of decision making. Two case studies were selected from the literature and analyzed to find the human errors contribute to decision fail. Then the analysis of human errors was linked with mental models in evaluation of alternative step. The results o...

  13. Formal Process Modeling to Improve Human Decision-Making in Test and Evaluation Acoustic Range Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    MODELING TO IMPROVE HUMAN DECISION-MAKING DURING TEST AND EVALUATION RANGE CONTROL by William Carlson September 2017 Thesis Advisor...the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT...MAKING DURING TEST AND EVALUATION RANGE CONTROL 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) William Carlson 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

  14. Human decision error (HUMDEE) trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostrom, L.T.

    1993-01-01

    Graphical presentations of human actions in incident and accident sequences have been used for many years. However, for the most part, human decision making has been underrepresented in these trees. This paper presents a method of incorporating the human decision process into graphical presentations of incident/accident sequences. This presentation is in the form of logic trees. These trees are called Human Decision Error Trees or HUMDEE for short. The primary benefit of HUMDEE trees is that they graphically illustrate what else the individuals involved in the event could have done to prevent either the initiation or continuation of the event. HUMDEE trees also present the alternate paths available at the operator decision points in the incident/accident sequence. This is different from the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) event trees. There are many uses of these trees. They can be used for incident/accident investigations to show what other courses of actions were available and for training operators. The trees also have a consequence component so that not only the decision can be explored, also the consequence of that decision

  15. Toward a Model of Human Information Processing for Decision-Making and Skill Acquisition in Laparoscopic Colorectal Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Eoin J; McMahon, Muireann; Walsh, Michael T; Coffey, J Calvin; O Sullivan, Leonard

    To create a human information-processing model for laparoscopic surgery based on already established literature and primary research to enhance laparoscopic surgical education in this context. We reviewed the literature for information-processing models most relevant to laparoscopic surgery. Our review highlighted the necessity for a model that accounts for dynamic environments, perception, allocation of attention resources between the actions of both hands of an operator, and skill acquisition and retention. The results of the literature review were augmented through intraoperative observations of 7 colorectal surgical procedures, supported by laparoscopic video analysis of 12 colorectal procedures. The Wickens human information-processing model was selected as the most relevant theoretical model to which we make adaptions for this specific application. We expanded the perception subsystem of the model to involve all aspects of perception during laparoscopic surgery. We extended the decision-making system to include dynamic decision-making to account for case/patient-specific and surgeon-specific deviations. The response subsystem now includes dual-task performance and nontechnical skills, such as intraoperative communication. The memory subsystem is expanded to include skill acquisition and retention. Surgical decision-making during laparoscopic surgery is the result of a highly complex series of processes influenced not only by the operator's knowledge, but also patient anatomy and interaction with the surgical team. Newer developments in simulation-based education must focus on the theoretically supported elements and events that underpin skill acquisition and affect the cognitive abilities of novice surgeons. The proposed human information-processing model builds on established literature regarding information processing, accounting for a dynamic environment of laparoscopic surgery. This revised model may be used as a foundation for a model describing robotic

  16. Restructuring of Values and Probabilities: Psychological Processes in Human Decision Making under Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svenson, Ola; Salo, Ilkka

    2001-01-01

    According to Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Diff Con), the decision maker's representations of values and probabilities are interdependent and changing over time in risky decision making. This is a clear violation of most normative theories of decision making. The present contribution will present Diff Con and provide empirical illustrations of how mental representations of values and probabilities change over time. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings concerning expert and lay people decision making about risks and hazards

  17. Modeling Human Elements of Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-06-01

    include factors such as personality, emotion , and level of expertise, which vary from individual to individual. The process of decision - making during... rational choice theories such as utility theory, to more descriptive psychological models that focus more on the process of decision - making ...descriptive nature, they provide a more realistic representation of human decision - making than the rationally based models. However these models do

  18. Restructuring of Values and Probabilities: Psychological Processes in Human Decision Making under Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svenson, Ola; Salo, Ilkka [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Psychology

    2001-07-01

    According to Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Diff Con), the decision maker's representations of values and probabilities are interdependent and changing over time in risky decision making. This is a clear violation of most normative theories of decision making. The present contribution will present Diff Con and provide empirical illustrations of how mental representations of values and probabilities change over time. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings concerning expert and lay people decision making about risks and hazards.

  19. Reward and decision processes in the brains of humans and nonhuman primates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirigu, Angela; Duhamel, Jean-René

    2016-03-01

    Choice behavior requires weighing multiple decision variables, such as utility, uncertainty, delay, or effort, that combine to define a subjective value for each considered option or course of action. This capacity is based on prior learning about potential rewards (and punishments) that result from prior actions. When made in a social context, decisions can involve strategic thinking about the intentions of others and about the impact of others' behavior on one's own outcome. Valuation is also influenced by different emotions that serve to adaptively regulate our choices in order to, for example, stay away from excessively risky gambles, prevent future regrets, or avoid personal rejection or conflicts. Drawing on economic theory and on advances in the study of neuronal mechanisms, we review relevant recent experiments in nonhuman primates and clinical observations made in neurologically impaired patients suffering from impaired decision-making capacities.

  20. Behavioural Decision Making and Suggestional Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Molz, Günter

    2001-01-01

    Common features between the domains of behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are discussed. These features are allocated in two aspects. First, behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are traditionally considered to provoke inadequate human behaviour. In this article arguments are put forward against this interpretation: Actions induced by non-rational decisions and / or by suggestional processes often have adaptive functions. Second, two common themat...

  1. Humans Optimize Decision-Making by Delaying Decision Onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teichert, Tobias; Ferrera, Vincent P.; Grinband, Jack

    2014-01-01

    Why do humans make errors on seemingly trivial perceptual decisions? It has been shown that such errors occur in part because the decision process (evidence accumulation) is initiated before selective attention has isolated the relevant sensory information from salient distractors. Nevertheless, it is typically assumed that subjects increase accuracy by prolonging the decision process rather than delaying decision onset. To date it has not been tested whether humans can strategically delay decision onset to increase response accuracy. To address this question we measured the time course of selective attention in a motion interference task using a novel variant of the response signal paradigm. Based on these measurements we estimated time-dependent drift rate and showed that subjects should in principle be able trade speed for accuracy very effectively by delaying decision onset. Using the time-dependent estimate of drift rate we show that subjects indeed delay decision onset in addition to raising response threshold when asked to stress accuracy over speed in a free reaction version of the same motion-interference task. These findings show that decision onset is a critical aspect of the decision process that can be adjusted to effectively improve decision accuracy. PMID:24599295

  2. Cognitive processes in anesthesiology decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiegler, Marjorie Podraza; Tung, Avery

    2014-01-01

    The quality and safety of health care are under increasing scrutiny. Recent studies suggest that medical errors, practice variability, and guideline noncompliance are common, and that cognitive error contributes significantly to delayed or incorrect diagnoses. These observations have increased interest in understanding decision-making psychology.Many nonrational (i.e., not purely based in statistics) cognitive factors influence medical decisions and may lead to error. The most well-studied include heuristics, preferences for certainty, overconfidence, affective (emotional) influences, memory distortions, bias, and social forces such as fairness or blame.Although the extent to which such cognitive processes play a role in anesthesia practice is unknown, anesthesia care frequently requires rapid, complex decisions that are most susceptible to decision errors. This review will examine current theories of human decision behavior, identify effects of nonrational cognitive processes on decision making, describe characteristic anesthesia decisions in this context, and suggest strategies to improve decision making.

  3. Nonrational processes in ethical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogerson, Mark D; Gottlieb, Michael C; Handelsman, Mitchell M; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

    2011-10-01

    Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasilegal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior, including context, perceptions, relationships, emotions, and heuristics. For example, a large body of behavioral research has demonstrated the importance of automatic intuitive and affective processes in decision making and judgment. These processes profoundly affect human behavior and lead to systematic biases and departures from normative theories of rationality. Their influence represents an important but largely unrecognized component of ethical decision making. We selectively review this work; provide various illustrations; and make recommendations for scientists, trainers, and practitioners to aid them in integrating the understanding of nonrational processes with ethical decision making.

  4. Information processing and strategic decision-making in small and medium-sized enterprises : The role of human and social capital in attaining decision effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, R.J.G.; Curseu, P.L.; Vermeulen, P.A.M.; Geurts, J.L.A.; Gibcus, P.

    2013-01-01

    The decision-making literature emphasizes that in high-stake decisions the characteristics of individual decision-makers, their interpretation of decision situations, and their social ties play an important role in decision outcomes. Despite these results, research on small- and medium-sized

  5. Serotonin and decision making processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homberg, Judith R

    2012-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detailed insight into the serotonergic mechanisms underlying decision making is needed to strengthen the first and weaken the latter. Although much remains to be done to achieve this, accumulating studies begin to deliver a coherent view. Thus, high central 5-HT levels are generally associated with improved reversal learning, improved attentional set shifting, decreased delay discounting, and increased response inhibition, but a failure to use outcome representations. Based on 5-HT's evolutionary role, I hypothesize that 5-HT integrates expected, or changes in, relevant sensory and emotional internal/external information, leading to vigilance behaviour affecting various decision making processes. 5-HT receptor subtypes play distinctive roles in decision making. 5-HT(2A) agonists and 5-HT2c antagonists decrease compulsivity, whereas 5-HT(2A) antagonists and 5-HT(2C) agonists decrease impulsivity. 5-HT(6) antagonists univocally affect decision making processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Markov Decision Processes in Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boucherie, Richardus J.; van Dijk, N.M.

    2017-01-01

    It is over 30 years ago since D.J. White started his series of surveys on practical applications of Markov decision processes (MDP), over 20 years after the phenomenal book by Martin Puterman on the theory of MDP, and over 10 years since Eugene A. Feinberg and Adam Shwartz published their Handbook

  7. Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaMar, Michelle M

    2018-03-01

    Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

  8. HUMAN DECISIONS AND MACHINE PREDICTIONS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinberg, Jon; Lakkaraju, Himabindu; Leskovec, Jure; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil

    2018-02-01

    Can machine learning improve human decision making? Bail decisions provide a good test case. Millions of times each year, judges make jail-or-release decisions that hinge on a prediction of what a defendant would do if released. The concreteness of the prediction task combined with the volume of data available makes this a promising machine-learning application. Yet comparing the algorithm to judges proves complicated. First, the available data are generated by prior judge decisions. We only observe crime outcomes for released defendants, not for those judges detained. This makes it hard to evaluate counterfactual decision rules based on algorithmic predictions. Second, judges may have a broader set of preferences than the variable the algorithm predicts; for instance, judges may care specifically about violent crimes or about racial inequities. We deal with these problems using different econometric strategies, such as quasi-random assignment of cases to judges. Even accounting for these concerns, our results suggest potentially large welfare gains: one policy simulation shows crime reductions up to 24.7% with no change in jailing rates, or jailing rate reductions up to 41.9% with no increase in crime rates. Moreover, all categories of crime, including violent crimes, show reductions; and these gains can be achieved while simultaneously reducing racial disparities. These results suggest that while machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals. JEL Codes: C10 (Econometric and statistical methods and methodology), C55 (Large datasets: Modeling and analysis), K40 (Legal procedure, the legal system, and illegal behavior).

  9. The decision-making process between rationality and emotions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alvino, Letizia; Franco, Massimo

    2017-01-01

    The decision-making process has been analyzed in several disciplines (economics, social sciences, humanities, etc.) with the aim of creating models to help decision-makers in strategy formulation. The Organizational theory takes into account both the decision-making process of individuals and groups

  10. Decision process for Hanford sitewide groundwater remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1996-06-01

    This document describes a decision process for planning future investigations and remediating contaminated groundwater at the Hanford Site in Richland, Washington. This decision process details the following: identifies key decisions and activities; defines the criteria used in making each decision; and defines the logic that links the decisions and the activities in a stepwise manner

  11. On Some Issues Related to the Models of Human and Organizational Factors and their Use in the Decision Making Process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serbanescu, D.

    2016-01-01

    The paper presents some results from a research on the best approaches to be adopted in order to evaluate the impact of various models used for Human and Organizational Factors (HOF) in nuclear field (nuclear power plants (NPP) and the infrastructure specific for their lifetime cycle—design, operation and extension of operation and decommissioning of a NPP). The work considers that modelling of HOF in integrated models for the whole NPP and its infrastructure was identified as an important issue by all the major accidents in the NPP (for instance, TMI, Chernobyl and Fukushima). However there are fundamental difficulties to develop models for such systems (combined technical-social and economical systems). Previous models used for similar cases in the evaluation of the lessons learnt from major accidents and in the modelling of the security of energy supply aspects were used by the author. In this paper results are presented with the use of three type of models: • Operational research (using matrix approach) for describing the systems, their elements, the challenges and results of the challenges; • Expert type approach based on best practice and expertise included in documents and researches of holistic type; • Risk based evaluations based on methodologies for the Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making.

  12. Information processing. [in human performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickens, Christopher D.; Flach, John M.

    1988-01-01

    Theoretical models of sensory-information processing by the human brain are reviewed from a human-factors perspective, with a focus on their implications for aircraft and avionics design. The topics addressed include perception (signal detection and selection), linguistic factors in perception (context provision, logical reversals, absence of cues, and order reversals), mental models, and working and long-term memory. Particular attention is given to decision-making problems such as situation assessment, decision formulation, decision quality, selection of action, the speed-accuracy tradeoff, stimulus-response compatibility, stimulus sequencing, dual-task performance, task difficulty and structure, and factors affecting multiple task performance (processing modalities, codes, and stages).

  13. Simulation of human decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, J Chris [Sandia Park, NM; Speed, Ann E [Albuquerque, NM; Jordan, Sabina E [Albuquerque, NM; Xavier, Patrick G [Albuquerque, NM

    2008-05-06

    A method for computer emulation of human decision making defines a plurality of concepts related to a domain and a plurality of situations related to the domain, where each situation is a combination of at least two of the concepts. Each concept and situation is represented in the computer as an oscillator output, and each situation and concept oscillator output is distinguishable from all other oscillator outputs. Information is input to the computer representative of detected concepts, and the computer compares the detected concepts with the stored situations to determine if a situation has occurred.

  14. Working memory retrieval as a decision process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Benjamin; Raskevicius, Julius; Bays, Paul M; Pertzov, Yoni; Husain, Masud

    2014-02-03

    Working memory (WM) is a core cognitive process fundamental to human behavior, yet the mechanisms underlying it remain highly controversial. Here we provide a new framework for understanding retrieval of information from WM, conceptualizing it as a decision based on the quality of internal evidence. Recent findings have demonstrated that precision of WM decreases with memory load. If WM retrieval uses a decision process that depends on memory quality, systematic changes in response time distribution should occur as a function of WM precision. We asked participants to view sample arrays and, after a delay, report the direction of change in location or orientation of a probe. As WM precision deteriorated with increasing memory load, retrieval time increased systematically. Crucially, the shape of reaction time distributions was consistent with a linear accumulator decision process. Varying either task relevance of items or maintenance duration influenced memory precision, with corresponding shifts in retrieval time. These results provide strong support for a decision-making account of WM retrieval based on noisy storage of items. Furthermore, they show that encoding, maintenance, and retrieval in WM need not be considered as separate processes, but may instead be conceptually unified as operations on the same noise-limited, neural representation.

  15. APPLICATION OF MULTICRITERIA DECISION MAKING THROUGH FINANCIAL, HUMAN RESOURCES AND BUSINESS PROCESS ASPECT IN VERIFICATION OF COMPANIES’ SUCCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Tadić

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Striving in volatile and competitive business environment, companies have to reveal the ideal path to survive and provide sustainable success, which can be validated using objective and subjective criteria. In order to fulfil stakeholders’ demands, many companies use different types of non financial indicators, characterising them as subjective ones. Authors lately argue about the usage of subjective criteria and validating them equally as objective ones, approving positive relationship between subjective and objective criteria. The main aim of this paper is to research whether the most successful Croatian companies regarding financial ratios show the similar results by other groups of criteria, as human resource management evaluation and evaluation of the business process success. In order to evaluate success of Croatian public companies, those are ranked by three groups of criteria using Simple Additive Weighting Method (SAW for subjective criteria and PROMETHEE II method for objective criteria. Weighted least square (WLS method was used in order to define weight of each criterion.

  16. Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  17. 32 CFR 865.110 - Decision process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Decision process. 865.110 Section 865.110...-GENERAL PERSONNEL REVIEW BOARDS Air Force Discharge Review Board § 865.110 Decision process. (a) The DRB... decision making process. ...

  18. Serotonin and decision making processes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homberg, J.R.

    2012-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients.

  19. The decision-making process between rationality and emotions

    OpenAIRE

    Alvino, Letizia; Franco, Massimo

    2017-01-01

    The decision-making process has been analyzed in several disciplines (economics, social sciences, humanities, etc.) with the aim of creating models to help decision-makers in strategy formulation. The Organizational theory takes into account both the decision-making process of individuals and groups of a company. Numerous models have been built, which include a wide range of psychological, environmental, hierarchical factors, all of which only account the notion of rationality. In time, such ...

  20. When Family Considerations Influence Work Decisions: Decision-Making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Gary N.; Greenhaus, Jeffrey H.

    2012-01-01

    The work-family literature has provided an abundance of evidence that various family factors are linked to various work decisions, suggesting that the "family-relatedness" of work decisions is a prevalent phenomenon (Greenhaus & Powell, 2012). However, the cognitive processes by which such linkages occur have received little attention. We offer a…

  1. An approach for assessing human decision reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyy, P.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents a method to study human reliability in decision situations related to nuclear power plant disturbances. Decisions often play a significant role in handling of emergency situations. The method may be applied to probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) in cases where decision making is an important dimension of an accident sequence. Such situations are frequent e.g. in accident management. In this paper, a modelling approach for decision reliability studies is first proposed. Then, a case study with two decision situations with relatively different characteristics is presented. Qualitative and quantitative findings of the study are discussed. In very simple decision cases with time pressure, time reliability correlation proved out to be a feasible reliability modelling method. In all other decision situations, more advanced probabilistic decision models have to be used. Finally, decision probability assessment by using simulator run results and expert judgement is presented

  2. Processing Information in Quantum Decision Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.

    2008-01-01

    A survey is given summarizing the state of the art of describing information processing in Quantum Decision Theory, which has been recently advanced as a novel variant of decision making, based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intended actions. The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention int...

  3. Assessment of human decision reliability - a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyy, P

    1998-01-01

    In his discussion of this case study, the author indicates that human beings are not merely machines who use rules. Thus, more focus needs to be put on studying decision making situations and their contexts. Decision theory (both normative and descriptive) and contextual psychological approaches may offer tools to cope with operator decision making. Further an ideal decision space needs to be defined for operators. The case study specifically addressed a loss of feedwater scenario and the various operator decisions that were involved in that scenario. It was concluded from this particular study that there are significant differences in the crew decision behaviours that are not explained by process variables. Through use of evidence from simulator tests with expert judgement, an approach to estimate probabilities has been developed. The modelling approach presented in this discussion is an extension of current HRA paradigms, but a natural one since all human beings make decisions

  4. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administe...

  5. Visual histories of decision processes for collaborative decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Kozlova, Karine

    2016-01-01

    Remembering, understanding and reconstructing past activities is a necessary part of any learning, sense-making or decision making process. It is also essential for any collaborative activity. This dissertation investigates the design and evaluation of systems to support decision remembering, understanding and reconstruction by groups and individuals. By conducting three qualitative case studies of small professional groups, we identify the critical activities where history functionality is n...

  6. Identifying knowledge in decision-making processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anna Rose Vagn; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2010-01-01

    Managing knowledge reflects the innovation capability of a company. Mapping decision processes and links to knowledge is a way to learn more in structuring knowledge in innovation processes. Through an empirical study the paper aims to identify knowledge...

  7. Decision Processes in Eyewitness Identification

    OpenAIRE

    Moreland, Molly Bettis

    2015-01-01

    The dominant theory of decision-making in eyewitness identification, based on a distinction between absolute and relative judgments, assumes that relative judgments (identifying the best match relative to the other lineup members) increases identification errors (Wells, 1984). This distinction also assumes that comparisons among lineup members underlying relative judgments increases errors, as evidenced by the sequential lineup advantage (Lindsay & Wells, 1985). Sequential lineups preclude co...

  8. Human Decision-Making under Limited Time

    OpenAIRE

    Ortega, Pedro A.; Stocker, Alan A.

    2016-01-01

    Subjective expected utility theory assumes that decision-makers possess unlimited computational resources to reason about their choices; however, virtually all decisions in everyday life are made under resource constraints - i.e. decision-makers are bounded in their rationality. Here we experimentally tested the predictions made by a formalization of bounded rationality based on ideas from statistical mechanics and information-theory. We systematically tested human subjects in their ability t...

  9. Computational Complexity and Human Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossaerts, Peter; Murawski, Carsten

    2017-12-01

    The rationality principle postulates that decision-makers always choose the best action available to them. It underlies most modern theories of decision-making. The principle does not take into account the difficulty of finding the best option. Here, we propose that computational complexity theory (CCT) provides a framework for defining and quantifying the difficulty of decisions. We review evidence showing that human decision-making is affected by computational complexity. Building on this evidence, we argue that most models of decision-making, and metacognition, are intractable from a computational perspective. To be plausible, future theories of decision-making will need to take into account both the resources required for implementing the computations implied by the theory, and the resource constraints imposed on the decision-maker by biology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Human Factors Influencing Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-07-01

    and Einhom (1991); Zeelenberg et al. (1997). This environmental context also makes it difficult to associate measured personality traits with specific... Zeelenberg and Beattie5 (1997): People are motivated to minimize post-decision regret. As a result people can become risk averse or risk seeking...188-201), Ablex, Norwood NJ, 1993. 5 Zeelenberg M. and J. Beattie. "Consequences of regret aversion 2: additional evidence for effects of feedback on

  11. Decision process simulation in training systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zajtsev, K.S.; Serov, A.A.; Ajnutdinov, V.A.

    1984-01-01

    One of the approaches to arrangement of training process an automated trainning systems (ATS) based on actjve use of knowledge of experienced operators is presented. Problems of mathematical model simulatjon of decision process by people not having special knowledge in mathematics are considered. A language of solution tables based on indistinct tables is suggested to the used as a simulation language. The problem of automation of decision process simulation in ATS is solued

  12. The evolutionary roots of human decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Laurie R; Rosati, Alexandra G

    2015-01-03

    Humans exhibit a suite of biases when making economic decisions. We review recent research on the origins of human decision making by examining whether similar choice biases are seen in nonhuman primates, our closest phylogenetic relatives. We propose that comparative studies can provide insight into four major questions about the nature of human choice biases that cannot be addressed by studies of our species alone. First, research with other primates can address the evolution of human choice biases and identify shared versus human-unique tendencies in decision making. Second, primate studies can constrain hypotheses about the psychological mechanisms underlying such biases. Third, comparisons of closely related species can identify when distinct mechanisms underlie related biases by examining evolutionary dissociations in choice strategies. Finally, comparative work can provide insight into the biological rationality of economically irrational preferences.

  13. Modeling as a Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleiler-Baxter, Sarah K.; Stephens, D. Christopher; Baxter, Wesley A.; Barlow, Angela T.

    2017-01-01

    The goal in this article is to support teachers in better understanding what it means to model with mathematics by focusing on three key decision-making processes: Simplification, Relationship Mapping, and Situation Analysis. The authors use the Theme Park task to help teachers develop a vision of how students engage in these three decision-making…

  14. Motivated information processing and group decision refusal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijstad, Bernard A.; Oltmanns, Jan

    Group decision making has attracted much scientific interest, but few studies have investigated group decisions that do not get made. Based on the Motivated Information Processing in Groups model, this study analysed the effect of epistemic motivation (low vs. high) and social motivation (proself

  15. 43 CFR 36.7 - Decision process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... so notify the applicant in writing. (2) Each appropriate Federal agency in making its decision shall... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Decision process. 36.7 Section 36.7 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITY SYSTEMS IN AND ACROSS...

  16. Legal process, litigation, and judicial decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beresford, H Richard

    2013-01-01

    Ethically salient issues in neurologic care may have important legal overtones. This chapter considers some of these, emphasizing how law may influence the outcome of controversies over how best to promote autonomy, beneficence, and justice in the care of individuals with neurologic disorders. Constitutional, statutory, and judicial dimensions are addressed. With respect to autonomy, discussion emphasizes legal dimensions of the doctrine of informed consent and the obligations of medical professionals to protect the privacy and confidentiality of their patients. The discussion of beneficence focuses on issues relating to actual or potential conflicts of interest in the care of patients and on the conduct of research involving human subjects. The section on justice considers how law aims to define protectable rights and interests of individuals and to provide a fair and efficient process for resolving disputes. Applications of legal principles and doctrines are illustrated primarily through the examples afforded by judicial decisions. These cases demonstrate how law both promotes ethical decision-making and protects the rights and interests of those affected. The cases also highlight some of the ethical quandaries that evoke resort to litigation and the limits of law in advancing ethically appropriate outcomes. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Corporate Choice of Banks: Decision Factors, Decision Maker, and Decision Process – First Evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ongena, S.; Tumer Alkan, G.; Vermeer, B.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate how firms choose their banks. We focus on the role played by the decision factors, the decision maker and the decision process in determining firm-bank relationships. We have access to a unique survey that was run by a major bank in the Czech Republic. We find that

  18. Emotion-affected decision making in human simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Y; Kang, J; Wright, D K

    2006-01-01

    Human modelling is an interdisciplinary research field. The topic, emotion-affected decision making, was originally a cognitive psychology issue, but is now recognized as an important research direction for both computer science and biomedical modelling. The main aim of this paper is to attempt to bridge the gap between psychology and bioengineering in emotion-affected decision making. The work is based on Ortony's theory of emotions and bounded rationality theory, and attempts to connect the emotion process with decision making. A computational emotion model is proposed, and the initial framework of this model in virtual human simulation within the platform of Virtools is presented.

  19. Information processing by networks of quantum decision makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yukalov, V. I.; Yukalova, E. P.; Sornette, D.

    2018-02-01

    We suggest a model of a multi-agent society of decision makers taking decisions being based on two criteria, one is the utility of the prospects and the other is the attractiveness of the considered prospects. The model is the generalization of quantum decision theory, developed earlier for single decision makers realizing one-step decisions, in two principal aspects. First, several decision makers are considered simultaneously, who interact with each other through information exchange. Second, a multistep procedure is treated, when the agents exchange information many times. Several decision makers exchanging information and forming their judgment, using quantum rules, form a kind of a quantum information network, where collective decisions develop in time as a result of information exchange. In addition to characterizing collective decisions that arise in human societies, such networks can describe dynamical processes occurring in artificial quantum intelligence composed of several parts or in a cluster of quantum computers. The practical usage of the theory is illustrated on the dynamic disjunction effect for which three quantitative predictions are made: (i) the probabilistic behavior of decision makers at the initial stage of the process is described; (ii) the decrease of the difference between the initial prospect probabilities and the related utility factors is proved; (iii) the existence of a common consensus after multiple exchange of information is predicted. The predicted numerical values are in very good agreement with empirical data.

  20. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-12-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  1. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khrennikova, Polina [School of Management, University of Leicester, University Road Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom)

    2012-12-18

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schroedinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schroedinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  2. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-01-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  3. The decision-making process during accidents or incidents in the operational nuclear area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martins, Maria da Penha Sanches; Vanni, Silvia Regina Vanni [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), SP (Brazil); Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], email: penhamartins@yahoo.com.br, e-mail: sjcvanni@yahoo.com.br; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], e-mail: delvonei@ipen.br

    2009-07-01

    This study reflects on one of the human behavior mediating factors that face nuclear facility operators during their decision-making process. It includes some mental processes used to determine the best course of action, based on intuitive and creative decisions, within a specific set of rational conditions which depend much more on perception about threats than on theoretical knowledge. A fast and efficient decision, in an unstable and ongoing changing scenario/environment, is extremely complex. The decision-making process goes beyond the purely rational level and many times is influenced by intuition. The importance of the decision-making process leads the study to also review human factors. The methodology used in this paper is based on cognitive aspects which are focused essentially on studies such as: decision process models, decision types and human rationality limits (time) versus individual decisions. Lastly, it makes assessments on how reason, emotion and being under stress relate to the decision-making process (author)

  4. The decision-making process during accidents or incidents in the operational nuclear area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martins, Maria da Penha Sanches; Vanni, Silvia Regina Vanni; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de

    2009-01-01

    This study reflects on one of the human behavior mediating factors that face nuclear facility operators during their decision-making process. It includes some mental processes used to determine the best course of action, based on intuitive and creative decisions, within a specific set of rational conditions which depend much more on perception about threats than on theoretical knowledge. A fast and efficient decision, in an unstable and ongoing changing scenario/environment, is extremely complex. The decision-making process goes beyond the purely rational level and many times is influenced by intuition. The importance of the decision-making process leads the study to also review human factors. The methodology used in this paper is based on cognitive aspects which are focused essentially on studies such as: decision process models, decision types and human rationality limits (time) versus individual decisions. Lastly, it makes assessments on how reason, emotion and being under stress relate to the decision-making process (author)

  5. Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

    1985-09-01

    The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

  6. Nonrational Processes in Ethical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogerson, Mark D.; Gottlieb, Michael C.; Handelsman, Mitchell M.; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

    2011-01-01

    Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasi-legal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior,…

  7. Cognitive processes, models and metaphors in decision research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Newell

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Decision research in psychology has traditionally been influenced by the extit{homo oeconomicus} metaphor with its emphasis on normative models and deviations from the predictions of those models. In contrast, the principal metaphor of cognitive psychology conceptualizes humans as `information processors', employing processes of perception, memory, categorization, problem solving and so on. Many of the processes described in cognitive theories are similar to those involved in decision making, and thus increasing cross-fertilization between the two areas is an important endeavour. A wide range of models and metaphors has been proposed to explain and describe `information processing' and many models have been applied to decision making in ingenious ways. This special issue encourages cross-fertilization between cognitive psychology and decision research by providing an overview of current perspectives in one area that continues to highlight the benefits of the synergistic approach: cognitive modeling of multi-attribute decision making. In this introduction we discuss aspects of the cognitive system that need to be considered when modeling multi-attribute decision making (e.g., automatic versus controlled processing, learning and memory constraints, metacognition and illustrate how such aspects are incorporated into the approaches proposed by contributors to the special issue. We end by discussing the challenges posed by the contrasting and sometimes incompatible assumptions of the models and metaphors.

  8. Decision science a human-oriented perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Mengov, George

    2015-01-01

    This book offers a new perspective on human decision-making by comparing the established methods in decision science with innovative modelling at the level of neurons and neural interactions. The book presents a new generation of computer models, which can predict with astonishing accuracy individual economic choices when people make them by quick intuition rather than by effort. A vision for a new kind of social science is outlined, whereby neural models of emotion and cognition capture the dynamics of socioeconomic systems and virtual social networks. The exposition is approachable by experts as well as by advanced students. The author is an Associate Professor of Decision Science with a doctorate in Computational Neuroscience, and a former software consultant to banks in the City of London.  .

  9. Markov decision processes in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Sigaud, Olivier

    2013-01-01

    Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a mathematical framework for modeling sequential decision problems under uncertainty as well as Reinforcement Learning problems. Written by experts in the field, this book provides a global view of current research using MDPs in Artificial Intelligence. It starts with an introductory presentation of the fundamental aspects of MDPs (planning in MDPs, Reinforcement Learning, Partially Observable MDPs, Markov games and the use of non-classical criteria). Then it presents more advanced research trends in the domain and gives some concrete examples using illustr

  10. A meaning for transparency in decision processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wene, C.O. [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Energy System Technology; Espejo, R. [Univ. of Lincolnshire and Humberside, Lincoln (United Kingdom). Lincoln School of Management

    1999-12-01

    In this paper we discuss transparency in decision processes. We argue that transparency requires fostering, producing and maintaining distributed dialogues and communications between all those affected by (the stakeholders) and those producing these decisions (the decision makers and the actors/experts). The issues raised in these dialogues will not only refer to questions of technical efficiency, but also to what is right and fair and what is considered to be good in society. Social policies, particularly those of wide social significance, are in one form or another the outcome of multiple meaning creation processes, reflecting their multiple spheres of influence, from the local to the global, from the disciplinary to the multi- and transdisciplinary. Each of these processes requires transparency. This paper is focused on the structural requirements to make these dialogues and communications effective at all levels, taking into account the need for technical explanation, proof of authenticity and legitimacy of actions. Moreover it is concerned with the alignment of these meanings creation processes in order to increase the chances of having not only a distributed but also a coherent overall decision process. Our emphasis is in defining forms of interaction among stakeholders in order to ground the debate of the policy throughout the organisation, beyond senior levels of management. The aim is increasing the demands on those responsible for policy implementation, stretching them so that they offer the best of themselves. We argue that this is the basis for a structural mechanism for transparency. The outcome of this paper is a conceptual framework to study issues of transparency in policy making which is illustrated with reference to nuclear waste management in Sweden.

  11. A meaning for transparency in decision processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wene, C.O.; Espejo, R.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we discuss transparency in decision processes. We argue that transparency requires fostering, producing and maintaining distributed dialogues and communications between all those affected by (the stakeholders) and those producing these decisions (the decision makers and the actors/experts). The issues raised in these dialogues will not only refer to questions of technical efficiency, but also to what is right and fair and what is considered to be good in society. Social policies, particularly those of wide social significance, are in one form or another the outcome of multiple meaning creation processes, reflecting their multiple spheres of influence, from the local to the global, from the disciplinary to the multi- and transdisciplinary. Each of these processes requires transparency. This paper is focused on the structural requirements to make these dialogues and communications effective at all levels, taking into account the need for technical explanation, proof of authenticity and legitimacy of actions. Moreover it is concerned with the alignment of these meanings creation processes in order to increase the chances of having not only a distributed but also a coherent overall decision process. Our emphasis is in defining forms of interaction among stakeholders in order to ground the debate of the policy throughout the organisation, beyond senior levels of management. The aim is increasing the demands on those responsible for policy implementation, stretching them so that they offer the best of themselves. We argue that this is the basis for a structural mechanism for transparency. The outcome of this paper is a conceptual framework to study issues of transparency in policy making which is illustrated with reference to nuclear waste management in Sweden

  12. Neural mechanisms underlying human consensus decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Shinsuke; Adachi, Ryo; Dunne, Simon; Bossaerts, Peter; O'Doherty, John P

    2015-04-22

    Consensus building in a group is a hallmark of animal societies, yet little is known about its underlying computational and neural mechanisms. Here, we applied a computational framework to behavioral and fMRI data from human participants performing a consensus decision-making task with up to five other participants. We found that participants reached consensus decisions through integrating their own preferences with information about the majority group members' prior choices, as well as inferences about how much each option was stuck to by the other people. These distinct decision variables were separately encoded in distinct brain areas-the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, posterior superior temporal sulcus/temporoparietal junction, and intraparietal sulcus-and were integrated in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex. Our findings provide support for a theoretical account in which collective decisions are made through integrating multiple types of inference about oneself, others, and environments, processed in distinct brain modules. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Information processing in decision-making systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Meer, Matthijs; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb; Redish, A David

    2012-08-01

    Decisions result from an interaction between multiple functional systems acting in parallel to process information in very different ways, each with strengths and weaknesses. In this review, the authors address three action-selection components of decision-making: The Pavlovian system releases an action from a limited repertoire of potential actions, such as approaching learned stimuli. Like the Pavlovian system, the habit system is computationally fast but, unlike the Pavlovian system permits arbitrary stimulus-action pairings. These associations are a "forward'' mechanism; when a situation is recognized, the action is released. In contrast, the deliberative system is flexible but takes time to process. The deliberative system uses knowledge of the causal structure of the world to search into the future, planning actions to maximize expected rewards. Deliberation depends on the ability to imagine future possibilities, including novel situations, and it allows decisions to be taken without having previously experienced the options. Various anatomical structures have been identified that carry out the information processing of each of these systems: hippocampus constitutes a map of the world that can be used for searching/imagining the future; dorsal striatal neurons represent situation-action associations; and ventral striatum maintains value representations for all three systems. Each system presents vulnerabilities to pathologies that can manifest as psychiatric disorders. Understanding these systems and their relation to neuroanatomy opens up a deeper way to treat the structural problems underlying various disorders.

  14. Human Assisted Assembly Processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    CALTON,TERRI L.; PETERS,RALPH R.

    2000-01-01

    Automatic assembly sequencing and visualization tools are valuable in determining the best assembly sequences, but without Human Factors and Figure Models (HFFMs) it is difficult to evaluate or visualize human interaction. In industry, accelerating technological advances and shorter market windows have forced companies to turn to an agile manufacturing paradigm. This trend has promoted computerized automation of product design and manufacturing processes, such as automated assembly planning. However, all automated assembly planning software tools assume that the individual components fly into their assembled configuration and generate what appear to be a perfectly valid operations, but in reality the operations cannot physically be carried out by a human. Similarly, human figure modeling algorithms may indicate that assembly operations are not feasible and consequently force design modifications; however, if they had the capability to quickly generate alternative assembly sequences, they might have identified a feasible solution. To solve this problem HFFMs must be integrated with automated assembly planning to allow engineers to verify that assembly operations are possible and to see ways to make the designs even better. Factories will very likely put humans and robots together in cooperative environments to meet the demands for customized products, for purposes including robotic and automated assembly. For robots to work harmoniously within an integrated environment with humans the robots must have cooperative operational skills. For example, in a human only environment, humans may tolerate collisions with one another if they did not cause much pain. This level of tolerance may or may not apply to robot-human environments. Humans expect that robots will be able to operate and navigate in their environments without collisions or interference. The ability to accomplish this is linked to the sensing capabilities available. Current work in the field of cooperative

  15. Information processing as a paradigm for decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Daniel M; Kelso, Evan

    2015-01-03

    For decades, the dominant paradigm for studying decision making--the expected utility framework--has been burdened by an increasing number of empirical findings that question its validity as a model of human cognition and behavior. However, as Kuhn (1962) argued in his seminal discussion of paradigm shifts, an old paradigm cannot be abandoned until a new paradigm emerges to replace it. In this article, we argue that the recent shift in researcher attention toward basic cognitive processes that give rise to decision phenomena constitutes the beginning of that replacement paradigm. Models grounded in basic perceptual, attentional, memory, and aggregation processes have begun to proliferate. The development of this new approach closely aligns with Kuhn's notion of paradigm shift, suggesting that this is a particularly generative and revolutionary time to be studying decision science.

  16. Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

    1985-09-01

    The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

  17. Human Decisions: Nitrogen Footprints and Environmental Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leach, A. M.; Bleeker, A.; Galloway, J. N.; Erisman, J.

    2012-12-01

    Human consumption choices are responsible for growing losses of reactive nitrogen (Nr) to the environment. Once in the environment, Nr can cause a cascade of negative impacts such as smog, acid rain, coastal eutrophication, climate change, and biodiversity loss. Although all humans must consume nitrogen as protein, the food production process releases substantial Nr to the environment. This dilemma presents a challenge: how do we feed a growing population while reducing Nr? Although top-down strategies to reduce Nr losses (e.g., emissions controls) are necessary, the bottom-up strategies focusing on personal consumption patterns will be imperative to solve the nitrogen challenge. Understanding the effects of different personal choices on Nr losses and the environment is an important first step for this strategy. This paper will utilize information and results from the N-Calculator, a per capita nitrogen footprint model (www.N-Print.org), to analyze the impact of different food consumption patterns on a personal food nitrogen footprint and the environment. Scenarios will analyze the impact of the following dietary patterns on the average United States (28 kg Nr/cap/yr) food nitrogen footprint: 1) Consuming only the recommended protein as defined by the WHO and the USDA; 2) Reducing food waste by 50%; 3) Consuming a vegetarian diet; 4) Consuming a vegan diet; 5) Consuming a demitarian diet (replacing half of animal protein consumption with vegetable protein); 6) Substituting chicken (a more efficient animal protein) with beef (a less efficient animal protein); 7) Consuming sustainably-produced food; and 8) Using advanced wastewater treatment. Preliminary results suggest that widespread advanced wastewater treatment with nutrient removal technology and halving food waste would each reduce the US personal food nitrogen footprint by 13%. In addition, reducing protein consumption to the recommended levels would reduce the footprint by about 42%. Combining these measures

  18. Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Pedrycz, Witold

    2014-01-01

    The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

  19. Motivated information processing and group decision-making : Effects of process accountability on information processing and decision quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholten, Lotte; van Knippenberg, Daan; Nijstad, Bernard A.; De Dreu, Carsten K. W.

    Integrating dual-process models [Chaiken, S., & Trope, Y. (Eds.). (1999). Dual-process theories in social psychology. NewYork: Guilford Press] with work on information sharing and group decision-making [Stasser, G., & Titus, W. (1985). Pooling of unshared information in group decision making: biased

  20. Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk Are Not the Same As in Decisions Under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten G Volz

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (small world, all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (large worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries, with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift towards studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples.

  1. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical

  2. Dual processing model of medical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

    2012-09-03

    Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. We show that physician's beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker's threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the

  3. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Djulbegovic Benjamin

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to

  4. Integrated Dialogue System for Spatial Decision Process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishiyama, Yumi; Fukui, Hiromichi; Kaneyasu, Iwao; Nagasaka, Toshinari; Usuda, Yuichiro; Sakamoto, Ai; Kusafuka, Minako

    2003-01-01

    The disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) is a difficult challenge for all countries that uses nuclear energy. In Japan, an implementing agency for HLW was authorized in 2001, and now seeking for municipalities that voluntarily apply to be a preliminary investigation area for a final disposal site. Along with these policy progresses, the HLW disposal program has been gaining social attentions. This leads to high demand for a systematic process for evaluating the proposed policy and environmental impact of geological disposal so that policy decisions can adequately address technical, ethical, and social considerations. As a step toward this objective, we have developed a participatory decision support system on the web. Web-based communication is in its infancy but may be viable support tool to engage different people. Through the study, we aimed to examine the possibility of web-based dialogue system for spatial decision process. One conclusion from the web-based dialogue is that it is possible to create a working environment on the web within those who have different backgrounds and interests. From the results, we found many findings that should be taken into account for further development. One is the need to re-construct the data, model imagery and opinions to judge the problem objectively. We will reexamine the contents based on the international activities so that participants can understand what the information means in the context. Facilitation is key element on the web, also. He or she is expected to make the atmosphere where even those who don't have high-level knowledge can participate in and arouse their opinion from the faceless communication. In the point, the auto navigation comes in very useful

  5. Incorporating BDI Agents into Human-Agent Decision Making Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamphorst, Bart; van Wissen, Arlette; Dignum, Virginia

    Artificial agents, people, institutes and societies all have the ability to make decisions. Decision making as a research area therefore involves a broad spectrum of sciences, ranging from Artificial Intelligence to economics to psychology. The Colored Trails (CT) framework is designed to aid researchers in all fields in examining decision making processes. It is developed both to study interaction between multiple actors (humans or software agents) in a dynamic environment, and to study and model the decision making of these actors. However, agents in the current implementation of CT lack the explanatory power to help understand the reasoning processes involved in decision making. The BDI paradigm that has been proposed in the agent research area to describe rational agents, enables the specification of agents that reason in abstract concepts such as beliefs, goals, plans and events. In this paper, we present CTAPL: an extension to CT that allows BDI software agents that are written in the practical agent programming language 2APL to reason about and interact with a CT environment.

  6. Visualization of decision processes using a cognitive architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingston, Mark A.; Murugesan, Arthi; Brock, Derek; Frost, Wende K.; Perzanowski, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Cognitive architectures are computational theories of reasoning the human mind engages in as it processes facts and experiences. A cognitive architecture uses declarative and procedural knowledge to represent mental constructs that are involved in decision making. Employing a model of behavioral and perceptual constraints derived from a set of one or more scenarios, the architecture reasons about the most likely consequence(s) of a sequence of events. Reasoning of any complexity and depth involving computational processes, however, is often opaque and challenging to comprehend. Arguably, for decision makers who may need to evaluate or question the results of autonomous reasoning, it would be useful to be able to inspect the steps involved in an interactive, graphical format. When a chain of evidence and constraint-based decision points can be visualized, it becomes easier to explore both how and why a scenario of interest will likely unfold in a particular way. In initial work on a scheme for visualizing cognitively-based decision processes, we focus on generating graphical representations of models run in the Polyscheme cognitive architecture. Our visualization algorithm operates on a modified version of Polyscheme's output, which is accomplished by augmenting models with a simple set of tags. We provide example visualizations and discuss properties of our technique that pose challenges for our representation goals. We conclude with a summary of feedback solicited from domain experts and practitioners in the field of cognitive modeling.

  7. Simulating operator decision processes at SRL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoecker, D.G.; Benhardt, H.C.; Pople, H.E. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    Cognitive environment simulation (CES) is both a methodology and an artificial intelligence (AI) tool. As a methodology, it denotes a technique that models human operators' cognitive processes to either (a) aid in designing the interface to a complex system (such as nuclear reactor control room) or (b) assess the cognitive causality that effects the likelihood of human error in specific accident scenarios. As an AI tool, CES is an expert system that models human intention formation and errors in a problem-solving context. The immediate objective of the reported work was to demonstrate the feasibility of applying CES to a new domain - that of the defense production reactors, whose design and operating philosophy differ in key areas from power reactors, where CES has already demonstrated interesting results

  8. 44 CFR 9.6 - Decision-making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Decision-making process. 9.6... HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION OF WETLANDS § 9.6 Decision-making process... protection decision-making process to be followed by the Agency in applying the Orders to its actions. While...

  9. Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mao, Hua; Chen, Yingke; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    . The proposed learning algorithm is adapted from algorithms for learning deterministic probabilistic finite automata, and extended to include both probabilistic and nondeterministic transitions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed and evaluated by learning system models of slot machines. The evaluation......Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm...... on learning probabilistic automata to reactive systems, where the observed system behavior is in the form of alternating sequences of inputs and outputs. We propose an algorithm for automatically learning a deterministic labeled Markov decision process model from the observed behavior of a reactive system...

  10. Analysis of the decision-making process of nurse managers: a collective reflection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eduardo, Elizabete Araujo; Peres, Aida Maris; de Almeida, Maria de Lourdes; Roglio, Karina de Dea; Bernardino, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    to analyze the decision-making model adopted by nurses from the perspective of some decision-making process theories. qualitative approach, based on action research. Semi-structured questionnaires and seminars were conducted from April to June 2012 in order to understand the nature of decisions and the decision-making process of nine nurses in position of managers at a public hospital in Southern Brazil. Data were subjected to content analysis. data were classified in two categories: the current situation of decision-making, which showed a lack of systematization; the construction and collective decision-making, which emphasizes the need to develop a decision-making model. the decision-making model used by nurses is limited because it does not consider two important factors: the limits of human rationality, and the external and internal organizational environments that influence and determine right decisions.

  11. Adaptable history biases in human perceptual decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahamyan, Arman; Silva, Laura Luz; Dakin, Steven C; Carandini, Matteo; Gardner, Justin L

    2016-06-21

    When making choices under conditions of perceptual uncertainty, past experience can play a vital role. However, it can also lead to biases that worsen decisions. Consistent with previous observations, we found that human choices are influenced by the success or failure of past choices even in a standard two-alternative detection task, where choice history is irrelevant. The typical bias was one that made the subject switch choices after a failure. These choice history biases led to poorer performance and were similar for observers in different countries. They were well captured by a simple logistic regression model that had been previously applied to describe psychophysical performance in mice. Such irrational biases seem at odds with the principles of reinforcement learning, which would predict exquisite adaptability to choice history. We therefore asked whether subjects could adapt their irrational biases following changes in trial order statistics. Adaptability was strong in the direction that confirmed a subject's default biases, but weaker in the opposite direction, so that existing biases could not be eradicated. We conclude that humans can adapt choice history biases, but cannot easily overcome existing biases even if irrational in the current context: adaptation is more sensitive to confirmatory than contradictory statistics.

  12. Influence of information on behavioral effects in decision processes

    OpenAIRE

    Angelarosa Longo; Viviana Ventre

    2015-01-01

    Rational models in decision processes are marked out by many anomalies, caused by behavioral issues. We point out the importance of information in causing inconsistent preferences in a decision process. In a single or multi agent decision process each mental model is influenced by the presence, the absence or false information about the problem or about other members of the decision making group. The difficulty in modeling these effects increases because behavioral biases influence also the m...

  13. Selective attention increases choice certainty in human decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zizlsperger, Leopold; Sauvigny, Thomas; Haarmeier, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Choice certainty is a probabilistic estimate of past performance and expected outcome. In perceptual decisions the degree of confidence correlates closely with choice accuracy and reaction times, suggesting an intimate relationship to objective performance. Here we show that spatial and feature-based attention increase human subjects' certainty more than accuracy in visual motion discrimination tasks. Our findings demonstrate for the first time a dissociation of choice accuracy and certainty with a significantly stronger influence of voluntary top-down attention on subjective performance measures than on objective performance. These results reveal a so far unknown mechanism of the selection process implemented by attention and suggest a unique biological valence of choice certainty beyond a faithful reflection of the decision process.

  14. Management and Decisions in the Structures of Human Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Galanc

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article has been devoted to the key dimensions of decision-making. The main goal of the authors was to point out the role and effect of invariants of nature, logic and conceptual systems of science and management, which are extremely important in decision-making processes. The research hypothesis has been tested that the complexity of decision-making and management are determined by the state of reality (Nature. This hypothesis is related to the fact that in science there is currently no uniform methodology associated with decision-making, just as science is not methodologically uniform. One can even doubt whether it is possible to describe the essential dimensions of decisions undertaken by Man, as discussed in this article. These problems are not a novelty to science, since they have been analysed by many scientists in the past. The authors of the article present the complexity and diversity of concepts defining systems of decision-making and management, based on selected fields of knowledge which are generally relevant to this issue, in particular fields associated with ontology and epistemology. Therefore, the text refers broadly to investigating the reality of basic areas of human knowledge and the overlapping relationships between them. This applies to the so-called circle of the sciences proposed and examined by the psychologist J. Piaget. An additional aim of the authors was to create a text presenting contemporary human knowledge about the reality which surrounds us. To understand reality means to be in relative equilibrium with it. (original abstract

  15. [Clinical decision making and critical thinking in the nursing diagnostic process].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Staub, Maria

    2006-10-01

    The daily routine requires complex thinking processes of nurses, but clinical decision making and critical thinking are underestimated in nursing. A great demand for educational measures in clinical judgement related with the diagnostic process was found in nurses. The German literature hardly describes nursing diagnoses as clinical judgements about human reactions on health problems / life processes. Critical thinking is described as an intellectual, disciplined process of active conceptualisation, application and synthesis of information. It is gained through observation, experience, reflection and communication and leads thinking and action. Critical thinking influences the aspects of clinical decision making a) diagnostic judgement, b) therapeutic reasoning and c) ethical decision making. Human reactions are complex processes and in their course, human behavior is interpreted in the focus of health. Therefore, more attention should be given to the nursing diagnostic process. This article presents the theoretical framework of the paper "Clinical decision making: Fostering critical thinking in the nursing diagnostic process through case studies".

  16. 24 CFR 55.20 - Decision making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Decision making process. 55.20 Section 55.20 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT Procedures for Making Determinations on Floodplain Management § 55.20 Decision making process. The decision making...

  17. Information Systems to Support a Decision Process at Stanford.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaffee, Ellen Earle

    1982-01-01

    When a rational decision process is desired, information specialists can contribute information and also contribute to the process in which that information is used, thereby promoting rational decision-making. The contribution of Stanford's information specialists to rational decision-making is described. (MLW)

  18. How Critical Thinking Shapes the Military Decision Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-05-17

    emotional rebuttal. Conversely, people cannot make good rational decisions without at least a twinge of emotion attached to the decision . 2) Our minds... decision they make . If emotions overwhelm reason, then decisions should be postponed.27 Service biases are one of the strongest emotional bias. Any...FINAL 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE How Critical Thinking Shapes the Military Decision Making Process 5a. CONTRACT

  19. Influence of information on behavioral effects in decision processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelarosa Longo

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Rational models in decision processes are marked out by many anomalies, caused by behavioral issues. We point out the importance of information in causing inconsistent preferences in a decision process. In a single or multi agent decision process each mental model is influenced by the presence, the absence or false information about the problem or about other members of the decision making group. The difficulty in modeling these effects increases because behavioral biases influence also the modeler. Behavioral Operational Research (BOR studies these influences to create efficient models to define choices in similar decision processes.

  20. A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2016-01-01

    Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

  1. implications of decision making process on agricultural employees

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was designed to determine the implications of decision making process on employees' turnover in the Institute of ... Involvement in Decision Making and Agricultural Employees' Turnover in Ibadan, Nigeria 37 ..... Lack of motivation.

  2. Human Integration Design Processes (HIDP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the Human Integration Design Processes (HIDP) document is to provide human-systems integration design processes, including methodologies and best practices that NASA has used to meet human systems and human rating requirements for developing crewed spacecraft. HIDP content is framed around human-centered design methodologies and processes in support of human-system integration requirements and human rating. NASA-STD-3001, Space Flight Human-System Standard, is a two-volume set of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Agency-level standards established by the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer, directed at minimizing health and performance risks for flight crews in human space flight programs. Volume 1 of NASA-STD-3001, Crew Health, sets standards for fitness for duty, space flight permissible exposure limits, permissible outcome limits, levels of medical care, medical diagnosis, intervention, treatment and care, and countermeasures. Volume 2 of NASASTD- 3001, Human Factors, Habitability, and Environmental Health, focuses on human physical and cognitive capabilities and limitations and defines standards for spacecraft (including orbiters, habitats, and suits), internal environments, facilities, payloads, and related equipment, hardware, and software with which the crew interfaces during space operations. The NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.2B, Human-Rating Requirements for Space Systems, specifies the Agency's human-rating processes, procedures, and requirements. The HIDP was written to share NASA's knowledge of processes directed toward achieving human certification of a spacecraft through implementation of human-systems integration requirements. Although the HIDP speaks directly to implementation of NASA-STD-3001 and NPR 8705.2B requirements, the human-centered design, evaluation, and design processes described in this document can be applied to any set of human-systems requirements and are independent of reference

  3. Development of a statistical method for predicting human driver decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    As autonomous vehicles enter the fleet, there will be a long period when these vehicles will have to interact with : human drivers. One of the challenges for autonomous vehicles is that human drivers do not communicate their : decisions well. However...

  4. Human-Systems Integration Processes

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of this project is to baseline a Human-Systems Integration Processes (HSIP) document as a companion to the NASA-STD-3001 and Human Integration Design...

  5. Risk-Based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...

  6. Making decision process knowledge explicit using the product data model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petrusel, R.; Vanderfeesten, I.T.P.; Dolean, Cristina; Mican, D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new knowledge acquisition and formalization method: the decision mining approach. Basically, we aim to produce a model of the workflow of mental actions performed by decision makers during the decision process. We show that through the use of a Product Data Model (PDM) we

  7. Decision Gate Process for Assessment of a Technology Development Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohli, Rajiv; Fishman, Julianna; Hyatt, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Dust Management Project (DMP) was established to provide technologies (to TRL 6 development level) required to address adverse effects of lunar dust to humans and to exploration systems and equipment, which will reduce life cycle cost and risk, and will increase the probability of sustainable and successful lunar missions. The technology portfolio of DMP consisted of different categories of technologies whose final product is either a technology solution in itself, or one that contributes toward a dust mitigation strategy for a particular application. A Decision Gate Process (DGP) was developed to assess and validate the achievement and priority of the dust mitigation technologies as the technologies progress through the development cycle. The DGP was part of continuous technology assessment and was a critical element of DMP risk management. At the core of the process were technology-specific criteria developed to measure the success of each DMP technology in attaining the technology readiness levels assigned to each decision gate. The DGP accounts for both categories of technologies and qualifies the technology progression from technology development tasks to application areas. The process provided opportunities to validate performance, as well as to identify non-performance in time to adjust resources and direction. This paper describes the overall philosophy of the DGP and the methodology for implementation for DMP, and describes the method for defining the technology evaluation criteria. The process is illustrated by example of an application to a specific DMP technology.

  8. Disciplined Decision Making in an Interdisciplinary Environment: Some Implications for Clinical Applications of Statistical Process Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantula, Donald A.

    1995-01-01

    Clinical applications of statistical process control (SPC) in human service organizations are considered. SPC is seen as providing a standard set of criteria that serves as a common interface for data-based decision making, which may bring decision making under the control of established contingencies rather than the immediate contingencies of…

  9. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  10. Is There Neural Evidence for an Evidence Accumulation Process in Memory Decisions?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vugt, Marieke K; Beulen, Marijke A; Taatgen, Niels A

    2016-01-01

    Models of evidence accumulation have been very successful at describing human decision making behavior. Recent years have also seen the first reports of neural correlates of this accumulation process. However, these studies have mostly focused on perceptual decision making tasks, ignoring the role

  11. Human Information Processing and Supervisory Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-05-01

    errors (that is of the output of the human operator). There is growing evidence (Senders, personal communication; Norman , personal communication...relates to the relative tendency to depend on sensory information or to be more analytic and independent. Norman (personal communication) has referred...decision process model. Ergonomics, 12, 543-557. Senders, J., Elkid, J., Grignetti, M., & Smallwood , R. 1966. An investigation of the visual sampling

  12. Human Performance Investigation Process (HPIP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paradies, M.; Unger, L.

    1991-01-01

    The Human Performance Investigation Process (HPIP) is a systematic method for use by Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) personnel investigating incidents that include human error. The combination of techniques into an investigation procedure is designed to help investigators (for example, a typical resident inspector with little human factors training) find the root causes of human performance problems that contributed to the incident. This summary briefly outlines the process and the techniques. The full paper provides a more in-depth description of the process, the techniques, and their development and evaluation. The complete documentation of the process will be presented in NUREG/CR-5455, Development of the NRC Human Performance Investigation Process (HPIP) to be published late in 1991

  13. Decision-making process in investment projects

    OpenAIRE

    Moutinho, Nuno

    2011-01-01

    We present projects evaluation approaches in what decision should be based. We try to understand what we have to take into account in a project analysis, knowing that we have to consider much unmeasured aspects, like non non-financial areas. We verify how all aspects are used and analysed in the project appraisal. We also desire to understand if companies have adequate tools and methods to correctly analyse and to take decisions in a project evaluation. In this study we identify several as...

  14. Dissociable neural processes underlying risky decisions for self versus other

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daehyun eJung

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Previous neuroimaging studies on decision making have mainly focused on decisions on behalf of oneself. Considering that people often make decisions on behalf of others, it is intriguing that there is little neurobiological evidence on how decisions for others differ from those for self. Thus, the present study focused on the direct comparison between risky decisions for self and those for other using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. Participants (N = 23 were asked to perform a gambling task for themselves (decision-for-self condition or for another person (decision-for-other condition while in the scanner. Their task was to choose between a low-risk option (i.e., win or lose 10 points and a high-risk option (i.e., win or lose 90 points. The winning probabilities of each option varied from 17% to 83%. Compared to choices for others, choices for self were more risk-averse at lower winning probability and more risk-seeking at higher winning probability, perhaps due to stronger affective process during risky decision for self compared to other. The brain activation pattern changed according to the target of the decision, such that reward-related regions were more active in the decision-for-self condition than in the decision-for-other condition, whereas brain regions related to the theory of mind (ToM showed greater activation in the decision-for-other condition than in the decision-for-self condition. A parametric modulation analysis reflecting each individual’s decision model revealed that activation of the amygdala and the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC were associated with value computation for self and for other, respectively, during a risky financial decision. The present study suggests that decisions for self and other may recruit fundamentally distinctive neural processes, which can be mainly characterized by dominant affective/impulsive and cognitive/regulatory processes, respectively.

  15. Understanding power plant investment decision processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, J.; Richstein, J.C.; De Vries, L.J.

    2013-01-01

    In order to understand how companies make investment decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty, we interviewed a number of actors in the Dutch electricity sector. Most of the economic literature that is devoted to this question is prescriptive in nature, describing rational methods to the

  16. Dissociable Neural Processes Underlying Risky Decisions for Self Versus Other

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Daehyun; Sul, Sunhae; Kim, Hackjin

    2013-01-01

    Previous neuroimaging studies on decision making have mainly focused on decisions on behalf of oneself. Considering that people often make decisions on behalf of others, it is intriguing that there is little neurobiological evidence on how decisions for others differ from those for oneself. The present study directly compared risky decisions for self with those for another person using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants were asked to perform a gambling task on behalf of themselves (decision-for-self condition) or another person (decision-for-other condition) while in the scanner. Their task was to choose between a low-risk option (i.e., win or lose 10 points) and a high-risk option (i.e., win or lose 90 points) with variable levels of winning probability. Compared with choices regarding others, those regarding oneself were more risk-averse at lower winning probabilities and more risk-seeking at higher winning probabilities, perhaps due to stronger affective process during risky decisions for oneself compared with those for other. The brain-activation pattern changed according to the target, such that reward-related regions were more active in the decision-for-self condition than in the decision-for-other condition, whereas brain regions related to the theory of mind (ToM) showed greater activation in the decision-for-other condition than in the decision-for-self condition. Parametric modulation analysis using individual decision models revealed that activation of the amygdala and the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC) were associated with value computations for oneself and for another, respectively, during risky financial decisions. The results of the present study suggest that decisions for oneself and for other may recruit fundamentally distinct neural processes, which can be mainly characterized as dominant affective/impulsive and cognitive/regulatory processes, respectively. PMID:23519016

  17. A Gaussian decision-support tool for engineering design process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Spitas, Christos

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making in design is of great importance, resulting in success or failure of a system (Liu et al., 2010; Roozenburg and Eekels, 1995; Spitas, 2011a). This paper describes a robust decision-support tool for engineering design process, which can be used throughout the design process in either

  18. Embedding a State Space Model Into a Markov Decision Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Jørgensen, Erik; Højsgaard, Søren

    2011-01-01

    In agriculture Markov decision processes (MDPs) with finite state and action space are often used to model sequential decision making over time. For instance, states in the process represent possible levels of traits of the animal and transition probabilities are based on biological models...

  19. Mothers' process of decision making for gastrostomy placement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotherton, Ailsa; Abbott, Janice

    2012-05-01

    In this article we present the findings of an exploration of mothers' discourses on decision making for gastrostomy placement for their child. Exploring in-depth interviews of a purposive sample, we analyzed the mothers' discourses of the decision-making process to understand how their experiences of the process influenced their subsequent constructions of decision making. Mothers negotiated decision making by reflecting on their personal experiences of feeding their child, either orally or via a tube, and interwove their background experiences with the communications from members of the health care team until a decision was reached. Decision making was often fraught with difficulty, resulting in anxiety and guilt. Experiences of decision making ranged from perceived coercion to true choice, which encompasses a truly child-centered decision. The resulting impact of the decision-making process on the mothers was profound. We conclude with an exploration of the implications for clinical practice and describe how health care professionals can support mothers to ensure that decision-making processes for gastrostomy placement in children are significantly improved.

  20. Implementing a Decision-Aware System for Loan Contracting Decision Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razvan PETRUSEL

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces our work related to the design and implementation of a decision-aware system focused on the loan contracting decision process. A decision-aware system is a software that enables the user to make a decision in a simulated environment and logs all the actions of the decision maker while interacting with the software. By using a mining algorithm on the logs, it creates a model of the decision process and presents it to the user. The main design issue introduced in the paper is the possibility to log the mental actions of the user. The main implementation issues are: user activity logging programming and technologies used. The first section of the paper introduces the state-of-the-art research in process mining and the framework of our research; the second section argues the design of the system; the third section introduces the actual implementation and the fourth section shows a running example.

  1. Modelling human emotions for tactical decision-making games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visschedijk, G.; Lazonder, Adrianus W.; van der Hulst, A.; Vink, N.; Leemkuil, Hendrik H.

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studies were performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human

  2. Modelling human emotions for tactical decision-making games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visschedijk, G.C.; Lazonder, A.W.; Hulst, A.H. van der; Vink, N.; Leemkuil, H.

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studieswere performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human

  3. Modelling Human Emotions for Tactical Decision-Making Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visschedijk, Gillian C.; Lazonder, Ard W.; van der Hulst, Anja; Vink, Nathalie; Leemkuil, Henny

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studies were performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human characters. Study 1 compared five versions of a virtual…

  4. Use of Human Reliability Insights to Improve Decision-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Julius, J. A.; Moieni, P.; Grobbelaar, J.; Kohlhepp, K.

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the use of insights obtained during the development and application of human reliability analysis (HRA) as part of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to support decision-making, including improvements to operations, training, and safety culture. Insights have been gained from the development and application of HRA as part of a PRA for nuclear power plants in the USA, Europe and Asia over the last two decades. These models consist of Level 1 and Level 2 PRA models of internal and external events, during full power and shutdown modes of plant operation. These insights include the use of human factors information to improve the qualitative portion of the HRA. The subsequent quantification in the HRA effectively prioritises the contributors to the unreliability of operator actions, and the process facilitates the identification of the factors that are important to the success of the operator actions. Additionally, the tools and techniques also allow for the evaluation of key assumptions and sources of uncertainty. The end results have been used to effectively support decision-making for day-to-day plant operations as well as licensing issues. HRA results have been used to provide feedback and improvements to plant procedures, operator training and other areas contributing the plant safety culture. Examples of the types of insights are presented in this paper. (author)

  5. Decision making in a human population living sustainably.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, John S; Burgman, Mark A; Marewski, Julian N; Fidler, Fiona; Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2012-10-01

    The Tiwi people of northern Australia have managed natural resources continuously for 6000-8000 years. Tiwi management objectives and outcomes may reflect how they gather information about the environment. We qualitatively analyzed Tiwi documents and management techniques to examine the relation between the social and physical environment of decision makers and their decision-making strategies. We hypothesized that principles of bounded rationality, namely, the use of efficient rules to navigate complex decision problems, explain how Tiwi managers use simple decision strategies (i.e., heuristics) to make robust decisions. Tiwi natural resource managers reduced complexity in decision making through a process that gathers incomplete and uncertain information to quickly guide decisions toward effective outcomes. They used management feedback to validate decisions through an information loop that resulted in long-term sustainability of environmental use. We examined the Tiwi decision-making processes relative to management of barramundi (Lates calcarifer) fisheries and contrasted their management with the state government's management of barramundi. Decisions that enhanced the status of individual people and their attainment of aspiration levels resulted in reliable resource availability for Tiwi consumers. Different decision processes adopted by the state for management of barramundi may not secure similarly sustainable outcomes. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. The Insertion of Human Factors Concerns into NextGen Programmatic Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beard, Bettina L.; Holbrook, Jon Brian; Seely, Rachel

    2013-01-01

    Since the costs of proposed improvements in air traffic management exceed available funding, FAA decision makers must select and prioritize what actually gets implemented. We discuss a set of methods to help forecast operational and human performance issues and benefits before new automation is introduced. This strategy could minimize the impact of politics, assist decision makers in selecting and prioritizing potential improvements, make the process more transparent and strengthen the link between the engineering and human factors domains.

  7. Supporting risk-informed decisions during business process execution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conforti, R.; Leoni, de M.; La Rosa, M.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Salinesi, C.; Norrie, M.C.; Pastor, O.

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a technique that supports process participants in making risk-informed decisions, with the aim to reduce the process risks. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process

  8. Methodology for eliciting, encoding and simulating human decision making behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Rider, Conrad Edgar Scott

    2012-01-01

    Agent-based models (ABM) are an increasingly important research tool for describing and predicting interactions among humans and their environment. A key challenge for such models is the ability to faithfully represent human decision making with respect to observed behaviour. This thesis aims to address this challenge by developing a methodology for empirical measurement and simulation of decision making in humanenvironment systems. The methodology employs the Beliefs-Desires-I...

  9. Data processing framework for decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jan

    The aim of the talk is * to provide insight into some of the issues in data processing and detection systems * to hint at possible solutions using statistical signal processing and machine learning methodologies...

  10. The decision-making process in public healthcare entities – identification of the decision-making process type

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymaniec-Mlicka Karolina

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The decisions made in the organization determine its success, therefore, conducting studies in the scope of decision-making seems important both for theory and practice. The aim of the studies was to identify the type of decision-making process in public medical entities with the use of typology developed by P. Nutt. For this purpose we used qualitative methods. Interviews with 8 directors of hospitals were conducted and the reconstruction was made on the basis of the decision-making process, which enabled the assignment of the model of decision-making process to the organization. The research indicated that four organizations use the historical decision-making model, three organizations represent the model of generating solutions, and one organization uses the model of available solutions.

  11. Exploring the Reshoring and Insourcing Decision Making Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bals, Lydia; Kirchoff, Jon F.; Foerstl, Kai

    2016-01-01

    The topics of reshoring and insourcing have recently become more widely discussed among operations management and international business scholars and managers, as some firms are revoking their offshoring and outsourcing decisions. This research focuses on and clarifies the decision making process...... organizational readiness in addition to decision drivers, improve coverage of the implementation stage and explore further contingency factors such as technological advancement as well as to focus on decision makers as the unit of analysis.......The topics of reshoring and insourcing have recently become more widely discussed among operations management and international business scholars and managers, as some firms are revoking their offshoring and outsourcing decisions. This research focuses on and clarifies the decision making processes...

  12. The household decision making process in replacement of durable goods

    OpenAIRE

    Marell Molander, Agneta

    1998-01-01

    As durables are essential in many households, the level of ownership is high and, due to the high degree of penetration, a vast proportion of the current sales are replacement purchases. Even though a lot of research attention has been paid to decision making and decision processes many models are oriented towards non-durable goods and although a majority of purchases of many durable goods are replacements, few studies seem to make a distinction between a replacement purchase decision and a d...

  13. Real-time multiparameter pulse processing with decision tables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, K.; Griffin, H.

    1986-01-01

    Decision tables offer several advantages over other real-time multiparameter, data processing techniques. These include very high collection rates, minimum number of computer instructions, rates independent of the number of conditions applied per parameter, ease of adding or removing conditions during a session, and simplicity of implementation. Decisions table processing is important in multiparameter nuclear spectroscopy, coincidence experiments, multiparameter pulse processing (HgI 2 resolution enhancement, pulse discrimination, timing spectroscopy), and other applications can be easily implemented. (orig.)

  14. Better decision making in complex, dynamic tasks training with human-facilitated interactive learning environments

    CERN Document Server

    Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan

    2015-01-01

    This book describes interactive learning environments (ILEs) and their underlying concepts. It explains how ILEs can be used to improve the decision-making process and how these improvements can be empirically verified. The objective of this book is to enhance our understanding of and to gain insights into the process by which human facilitated ILEs are effectively designed and used in improving users’ decision making in complex, dynamic tasks. This book is divided into four major parts. Part I serves as an introduction to the importance and complexity of decision making in dynamic tasks. Part II provides background material, drawing upon relevant literature, for the development of an integrated process model on the effectiveness of human facilitated ILEs in improving decision making in dynamic tasks. Part III focuses on the design, development, and application of FishBankILE in laboratory experiments to gather empirical evidence for the validity of the process model. Finally, part IV presents a comprehensi...

  15. PROFIT SENSITIVITY IN THE DECISION - MAKING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimi Ofilean

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Projections on the profitability of an entity is a prerequisite impact assessment of implementing various management strategies. The literature did not include a model sensitivity analysis in terms of profit margin of safety modification and safety coefficient. This article aims to explicit solutions for identifying the factors that influence the sensitivity of profit, the proposed analytical models to change the margin of safety (physical and value and coefficient of safety. The model allows the determination of limits that can increase or decrease sales costs so that the company remains profitable, ie to be able to maintain an adequate level of profit. This analysis allows knowing the influence of each factor in the evolution of the profitability of the entity, allowing managers to adopt the right decisions based on the importance of the influence of the analysis results of the entity. To facilitate understanding of the proposed analytical model is presented a case study.

  16. Reducing Post-Decision Dissonance in International Decisions: The Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DuBois, Frank L.

    1999-01-01

    Describes use of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as a teaching tool to illustrate the complexities of decision making in an international environment. The AHP approach uses managerial input to develop pairwise comparisons of relevant decision criteria to efficiently generate an appropriate solution. (DB)

  17. Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

    2014-01-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

  18. Temporal characteristics of the influence of punishment on perceptual decision making in the human brain

    OpenAIRE

    Blank, H.; Guido, B.; Heekeren, H.R.; Philiastides, M.G.

    2013-01-01

    Perceptual decision making is the process by which information from sensory systems is combined and used to influence our behavior. In addition to the sensory input, this process can be affected by other factors, such as reward and punishment for correct and incorrect responses. To investigate the temporal dynamics of how monetary punishment influences perceptual decision making in humans, we collected electroencephalography (EEG) data during a perceptual categorization task whereby the punis...

  19. Decision support based on process mining

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Burstein, F.; Holsapple, C.W.

    2008-01-01

    Process mining techniques allow for the analysis of business processes based on event logs. For example, the audit trails of a workflow management system, the transaction logs of an enterprise resource planning system, and the electronic patient records in a hospital can be used to discover models

  20. On the Decision-Making Process in Music Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorgensen, Estelle R.

    1985-01-01

    Sketches a conceptual framework for the systematic description of decision-making processes in music education. Refers to existing formulations in education, management, marketing, and economics. Lists decision-making phases in music education, each exhibiting the characteristics of a social system. Offers a historical example of each phase. (AYC)

  1. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Analyze Multiattribute Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spires, Eric E.

    1991-01-01

    The use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in assisting researchers to analyze decisions is discussed. The AHP is compared with other decision-analysis techniques, including multiattribute utility measurement, conjoint analysis, and general linear models. Insights that AHP can provide are illustrated with data gathered in an auditing context.…

  2. Computerization of the safeguards analysis decision process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehinger, M.H.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports that safeguards regulations are evolving to meet new demands for timeliness and sensitivity in detecting the loss or unauthorized use of sensitive nuclear materials. The opportunities to meet new rules, particularly in bulk processing plants, involve developing techniques which use modern, computerized process control and information systems. Using these computerized systems in the safeguards analysis involves all the challenges of the man-machine interface experienced in the typical process control application and adds new dimensions to accuracy requirements, data analysis, and alarm resolution in the regulatory environment

  3. Markov decision processes: a tool for sequential decision making under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alagoz, Oguzhan; Hsu, Heather; Schaefer, Andrew J; Roberts, Mark S

    2010-01-01

    We provide a tutorial on the construction and evaluation of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are powerful analytical tools used for sequential decision making under uncertainty that have been widely used in many industrial and manufacturing applications but are underutilized in medical decision making (MDM). We demonstrate the use of an MDP to solve a sequential clinical treatment problem under uncertainty. Markov decision processes generalize standard Markov models in that a decision process is embedded in the model and multiple decisions are made over time. Furthermore, they have significant advantages over standard decision analysis. We compare MDPs to standard Markov-based simulation models by solving the problem of the optimal timing of living-donor liver transplantation using both methods. Both models result in the same optimal transplantation policy and the same total life expectancies for the same patient and living donor. The computation time for solving the MDP model is significantly smaller than that for solving the Markov model. We briefly describe the growing literature of MDPs applied to medical decisions.

  4. A Comprehensive Model of the Employee's Turnover Decision Process

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Donnelly, David

    2002-01-01

    .... In any environment in which retention is a primary goal, an essential first step in controlling attrition is the development of an in-depth understanding of the employee turnover decision process...

  5. Continuous-time Markov decision processes theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Guo, Xianping

    2009-01-01

    This volume provides the first book entirely devoted to recent developments on the theory and applications of continuous-time Markov decision processes (MDPs). The MDPs presented here include most of the cases that arise in applications.

  6. Influence of Culture on the Process of Managing Decisions Adoption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin-Lucian Isac

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Different cultural environment requires a corresponding managerial environment. The process of managing decisions adoption is influenced by the values, attitudes, beliefs and behaviors of the employees.

  7. Use of PRA in Shuttle Decision Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri L.

    2010-01-01

    How do you use PRA to support an operating program? This presentation will explore how the Shuttle Program Management has used the Shuttle PRA in its decision making process. It will reveal how the PRA has evolved from a tool used to evaluate Shuttle upgrades like Electric Auxiliary Power Unit (EAPU) to a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and real-time flight decisions. Specific examples of Shuttle Program decisions that have used the Shuttle PRA as input will be provided including how it was used in the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) manifest decision. It will discuss the importance of providing management with a clear presentation of the analysis, applicable assumptions and limitations, along with estimates of the uncertainty. This presentation will show how the use of PRA by the Shuttle Program has evolved overtime and how it has been used in the decision making process providing specific examples.

  8. Human aspects in software architecture decision making : a literature review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tang, A.; Razavian, M.; Paech, Barbara; Hesse, T.M.

    2017-01-01

    Despite past efforts, we have little understanding and limited research efforts on how architects make decisions in the real-world settings. It seems that software architecture researchers make implicit assumption that decision making by software architects can be a rational and prescribed process.

  9. Decision making, procedural compliance, and outcomes definition in U.S. forest service planning processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, Marc J.; Predmore, S. Andrew

    2011-01-01

    The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) dictates a process of analyzing and disclosing the likely impacts of proposed agency actions on the human environment. This study addresses two key questions related to NEPA implementation in the U.S. Forest Service: 1) how do Interdisciplinary (ID) team leaders and decision makers conceptualize the outcomes of NEPA processes? And 2), how does NEPA relate to agency decision making? We address these questions through two separate online surveys that posed questions about recently completed NEPA processes - the first with the ID team leaders tasked with carrying out the processes, and the second with the line officers responsible for making the processes' final decisions. Outcomes of NEPA processes include impacts on public relations, on employee morale and team functioning, on the achievement of agency goals, and on the achievement of NEPA's procedural requirements (disclosure) and substantive intent (minimizing negative environmental impacts). Although both tended to view public relations outcomes as important, decision makers' perceptions of favorable outcomes were more closely linked to the achievement of agency goals and process efficiency than was the case for ID team leaders. While ID team leaders' responses suggest that they see decision making closely integrated with the NEPA process, decision makers more commonly decoupled decision making from the NEPA process. These findings suggest a philosophical difference between ID team leaders and decision makers that may pose challenges for both the implementation and the evaluation of agency NEPA. We discuss the pros and cons of integrating NEPA with decision making or separating the two. We conclude that detaching NEPA from decision making poses greater risks than integrating them.

  10. The analytic hierarchy process as a support for decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipović Milanka

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The first part of this text deals with a convention site selection as one of the most lucrative areas in the tourism industry. The second part gives a further description of a method for decision making - the analytic hierarchy process. The basic characteristics: hierarchy constructions and pair wise comparison on the given level of the hierarchy are allured. The third part offers an example of application. This example is solved using the Super - Decision software, which is developed as a computer support for the analytic hierarchy process. This indicates that the AHP approach is a useful tool to help support a decision of convention site selection. .

  11. Sexual picture processing interferes with decision-making under ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laier, Christian; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Brand, Matthias

    2014-04-01

    Many people watch sexually arousing material on the Internet in order to receive sexual arousal and gratification. When browsing for sexual stimuli, individuals have to make several decisions, all possibly leading to positive or negative consequences. Decision-making research has shown that decisions under ambiguity are influenced by consequences received following earlier decisions. Sexual arousal might interfere with the decision-making process and should therefore lead to disadvantageous decision-making in the long run. In the current study, 82 heterosexual, male participants watched sexual pictures, rated them with respect to sexual arousal, and were asked to indicate their current level of sexual arousal before and following the sexual picture presentation. Afterwards, subjects performed one of two modified versions of the Iowa Gambling Task in which sexual pictures were displayed on the advantageous and neutral pictures on the disadvantageous card decks or vice versa (n = 41/n = 41). Results demonstrated an increase of sexual arousal following the sexual picture presentation. Decision-making performance was worse when sexual pictures were associated with disadvantageous card decks compared to performance when the sexual pictures were linked to the advantageous decks. Subjective sexual arousal moderated the relationship between task condition and decision-making performance. This study emphasized that sexual arousal interfered with decision-making, which may explain why some individuals experience negative consequences in the context of cybersex use.

  12. Combining human and machine processes (CHAMP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudit, Moises; Sudit, David; Hirsch, Michael

    2015-05-01

    Machine Reasoning and Intelligence is usually done in a vacuum, without consultation of the ultimate decision-maker. The late consideration of the human cognitive process causes some major problems in the use of automated systems to provide reliable and actionable information that users can trust and depend to make the best Course-of-Action (COA). On the other hand, if automated systems are created exclusively based on human cognition, then there is a danger of developing systems that don't push the barrier of technology and are mainly done for the comfort level of selected subject matter experts (SMEs). Our approach to combining human and machine processes (CHAMP) is based on the notion of developing optimal strategies for where, when, how, and which human intelligence should be injected within a machine reasoning and intelligence process. This combination is based on the criteria of improving the quality of the output of the automated process while maintaining the required computational efficiency for a COA to be actuated in timely fashion. This research addresses the following problem areas: • Providing consistency within a mission: Injection of human reasoning and intelligence within the reliability and temporal needs of a mission to attain situational awareness, impact assessment, and COA development. • Supporting the incorporation of data that is uncertain, incomplete, imprecise and contradictory (UIIC): Development of mathematical models to suggest the insertion of a cognitive process within a machine reasoning and intelligent system so as to minimize UIIC concerns. • Developing systems that include humans in the loop whose performance can be analyzed and understood to provide feedback to the sensors.

  13. Safety assessment as basis for the decision making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilie, P.; Didita, L.; Danchiv, A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper deals with the safety assessment for a new near surface repository, particularly for the early stage of repository development using ISAM (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Disposal Facilities) safety assessment methodology. In this stage of the repository life cycle the main purpose of the safety assessment is to demonstrate that the plant is capable to be constructed and operated safely. The paper is based on development of the ASAM (Application of the Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near-Surface Disposal Facilities) Decision Support Subgroup of the Common Aspects Working Group. The implications of decision making for the application of the ISAM methodology on post-closure safety assessment are analysed. Some important elements of the decision-making process with impact on key components of the ISAM process are described. Following the development of Decision Support Subgroup of the ASAM Common Aspects Working Group the proposed change of ISAM methodology is analysed. This approach puts all activities in a decision context where the first iteration of the safety assessment is based on the existing state of knowledge and the initial engineering design. Confidence in the process is accomplished through the direct inclusion of all decision makers and stakeholders in the formulation of decisions, the definition of the state of knowledge, and decision making activities. The decision process is developed in context of undertaking assessments with little site-specific information, this situation is specifically for new planned repository. Limited site-specific information can result in a high degree of uncertainty, therefore it is important first of all to identify the sources of uncertainty arising from the limited nature of the site-specific information and then to apply appropriate approaches to manage the uncertainties and to determine whether the uncertainties are important to the overall safety of the disposal facility

  14. Evidence Accumulation and Choice Maintenance Are Dissociated in Human Perceptual Decision Making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mads Lund Pedersen

    Full Text Available Perceptual decision making in monkeys relies on decision neurons, which accumulate evidence and maintain choices until a response is given. In humans, several brain regions have been proposed to accumulate evidence, but it is unknown if these regions also maintain choices. To test if accumulator regions in humans also maintain decisions we compared delayed and self-paced responses during a face/house discrimination decision making task. Computational modeling and fMRI results revealed dissociated processes of evidence accumulation and decision maintenance, with potential accumulator activations found in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, right inferior frontal gyrus and bilateral insula. Potential maintenance activation spanned the frontal pole, temporal gyri, precuneus and the lateral occipital and frontal orbital cortices. Results of a quantitative reverse inference meta-analysis performed to differentiate the functions associated with the identified regions did not narrow down potential accumulation regions, but suggested that response-maintenance might rely on a verbalization of the response.

  15. Emotion-affected decision making in human simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Y; Kang, J; Wright, D K

    2006-01-01

    Human modelling is an interdisciplinary research field. The topic, emotion-affected decision making, was originally a cognitive psychology issue, but is now recognized as an important research direction for both computer science and biomedical modelling. The main aim of this paper is to attempt to bridge the gap between psychology and bioengineering in emotion-affected decision making. The work is based on Ortony's theory of emotions and bounded rationality theory, and attempts to connect the...

  16. Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkael Symmonds

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores. Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry, and safe (less variable food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans.We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake, and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves. We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively.We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that this sensitivity in human risk-preference to current metabolic state has

  17. Nonword repetition in lexical decision: support for two opposing processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Zeelenberg, René; Steyvers, Mark; Shiffrin, Richard; Raaijmakers, Jeroen

    2004-10-01

    We tested and confirmed the hypothesis that the prior presentation of nonwords in lexical decision is the net result of two opposing processes: (1) a relatively fast inhibitory process based on global familiarity; and (2) a relatively slow facilitatory process based on the retrieval of specific episodic information. In three studies, we manipulated speed-stress to influence the balance between the two processes. Experiment 1 showed item-specific improvement for repeated nonwords in a standard "respond-when-ready" lexical decision task. Experiment 2 used a 400-ms deadline procedure and showed performance for nonwords to be unaffected by up to four prior presentations. In Experiment 3 we used a signal-to-respond procedure with variable time intervals and found negative repetition priming for repeated nonwords. These results can be accounted for by dual-process models of lexical decision.

  18. Schizophrenia as a human process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corradi, Richard B

    2011-01-01

    The patient with schizophrenia often appears to be living in an alien world, one of strange voices, bizarre beliefs, and disorganized speech and behavior. It is difficult to empathize with someone suffering from symptoms so remote from one's ordinary experience. However, examination of the disorder reveals not only symptoms of the psychosis itself but also an intensely human struggle against the disintegration of personality it can produce. Furthermore, examination of the individual's attempts to cope with a devastating psychotic process reveals familiar psychodynamic processes and defense mechanisms, however unsuccessful they may be. Knowing that behind the seemingly alien diagnostic features of schizophrenia is a person attempting to preserve his or her self-identity puts a human face on the illness. This article utilizes clinical material to describe some of the psychodynamic processes of schizophrenia. Its purpose is to facilitate understanding of an illness that requires comprehensive biopsychosocial treatment in which a therapeutic doctor-patient relationship is as necessary as antipsychotic medication.

  19. A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

    2017-01-01

    Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members' capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches.

  20. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  1. Funding Decisions for Newborn Screening: A Comparative Review of 22 Decision Processes in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Elisabeth Fischer

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision-makers need to make choices to improve public health. Population-based newborn screening (NBS is considered as one strategy to prevent adverse health outcomes and address rare disease patients’ needs. The aim of this study was to describe key characteristics of decisions for funding new NBS programmes in Europe. We analysed past decisions using a conceptual framework. It incorporates indicators that capture the steps of decision processes by health care payers. Based on an internet survey, we compared 22 decisions for which answers among two respondents were validated for each observation. The frequencies of indicators were calculated to elicit key characteristics. All decisions resulted in positive, mostly unrestricted funding. Stakeholder participation was diverse focusing on information provision or voting. Often, decisions were not fully transparent. Assessment of NBS technologies concentrated on expert opinion, literature review and rough cost estimates. Most important appraisal criteria were effectiveness (i.e., health gain from testing for the children being screened, disease severity and availability of treatments. Some common and diverging key characteristics were identified. Although no evidence of explicit healthcare rationing was found, processes may be improved in respect of transparency and scientific rigour of assessment.

  2. Surgical Consultation as Social Process: Implications for Shared Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clapp, Justin T; Arriaga, Alexander F; Murthy, Sushila; Raper, Steven E; Schwartz, J Sanford; Barg, Frances K; Fleisher, Lee A

    2017-12-12

    This qualitative study examines surgical consultation as a social process and assesses its alignment with assumptions of the shared decision-making (SDM) model. SDM stresses the importance of patient preferences and rigorous discussion of therapeutic risks/benefits based on these preferences. However, empirical studies have highlighted discrepancies between SDM and realities of surgical decision making. Qualitative research can inform understanding of the decision-making process and allow for granular assessment of the nature and causes of these discrepancies. We observed consultations between 3 general surgeons and 45 patients considering undergoing 1 of 2 preference-sensitive elective operations: (1) hernia repair, or (2) cholecystectomy. These patients and surgeons also participated in semi-structured interviews. By the time of the consultation, patients and surgeons were predisposed toward certain decisions by preceding events occurring elsewhere. During the visit, surgeons had differential ability to arbitrate surgical intervention and construct the severity of patients' conditions. These upstream dynamics frequently displaced the centrality of the risk/benefit-based consent discussion. The influence of events preceding consultation suggests that decision-making models should account for broader spatiotemporal spans. Given surgeons' authority to define patients' conditions and control service provision, SDM may be premised on an overestimation of patients' power to alter the course of decision making once in a specialist's office. Considering the subordinate role of the risk/benefit discussion in many surgical decisions, it will be important to study if and how the social process of decision making is altered by SDM-oriented decision aids that foreground this discussion.

  3. A decision model for the risk management of hazardous processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.E.

    1997-03-01

    A decision model for risk management of hazardous processes as an optimisation problem of a point process is formulated in the study. In the approach, the decisions made by the management are divided into three categories: (1) planned process lifetime, (2) selection of the design and, (3) operational decisions. These three controlling methods play quite different roles in the practical risk management, which is also reflected in our approach. The optimisation of the process lifetime is related to the licensing problem of the process. It provides a boundary condition for a feasible utility function that is used as the actual objective function, i.e., maximizing the process lifetime utility. By design modifications, the management can affect the inherent accident hazard rate of the process. This is usually a discrete optimisation task. The study particularly concentrates upon the optimisation of the operational strategies given a certain design and licensing time. This is done by a dynamic risk model (marked point process model) representing the stochastic process of events observable or unobservable to the decision maker. An optimal long term control variable guiding the selection of operational alternatives in short term problems is studied. The optimisation problem is solved by the stochastic quasi-gradient procedure. The approach is illustrated by a case study. (23 refs.)

  4. SOFTWARE PROCESS ASSESSMENT AND IMPROVEMENT USING MULTICRITERIA DECISION AIDING - CONSTRUCTIVIST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Ensslin

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Software process improvement and software process assessment have received special attention since the 1980s. Some models have been created, but these models rest on a normative approach, where the decision-maker’s participation in a software organization is limited to understanding which process is more relevant to each organization. The proposal of this work is to present the MCDA-C as a constructivist methodology for software process improvement and assessment. The methodology makes it possible to visualize the criteria that must be taken into account according to the decision-makers’ values in the process improvement actions, making it possible to rank actions in the light of specific organizational needs. This process helped the manager of the company studied to focus on and prioritize process improvement actions. This paper offers an empirical understanding of the application of performance evaluation to software process improvement and identifies complementary tools to the normative models presented today.

  5. An Integrative Process Approach on Judgment and Decision Making: The Impact of Arousal, Affect, Motivation, and Cognitive Ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roets, Arne; Van Hiel, Alain

    2011-01-01

    This article aims to integrate the findings from various research traditions on human judgment and decision making, focusing on four process variables: arousal, affect, motivation, and cognitive capacity/ability. We advocate a broad perspective referred to as the integrative process approach (IPA) of decision making, in which these process…

  6. Beyond dual-process models: A categorisation of processes underlying intuitive judgement and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glöckner, A.; Witteman, C.L.M.

    2010-01-01

    Intuitive-automatic processes are crucial for making judgements and decisions. The fascinating complexity of these processes has attracted many decision researchers, prompting them to start investigating intuition empirically and to develop numerous models. Dual-process models assume a clear

  7. The Decision-Making Process of a Small Task Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roderick, Joan C.

    1985-01-01

    This article focuses on the following areas of group process: the nature of the task group, the steps taken to reach a decision, and the ways in which a leader can effectively manage the inevitable conflict that emerges within groups as the problem-solving process progresses. (CT)

  8. Clarification process: Resolution of decision-problem conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterly, D. L.

    1980-01-01

    A model of a general process which occurs in both decisionmaking and problem-solving tasks is presented. It is called the clarification model and is highly dependent on information flow. The model addresses the possible constraints of individual indifferences and experience in achieving success in resolving decision-problem conditions. As indicated, the application of the clarification process model is only necessary for certain classes of the basic decision-problem condition. With less complex decision problem conditions, certain phases of the model may be omitted. The model may be applied across a wide range of decision problem conditions. The model consists of two major components: (1) the five-phase prescriptive sequence (based on previous approaches to both concepts) and (2) the information manipulation function (which draws upon current ideas in the areas of information processing, computer programming, memory, and thinking). The two components are linked together to provide a structure that assists in understanding the process of resolving problems and making decisions.

  9. Neural Correlates of Feedback Processing in Decision Making under Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beate eSchuermann

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Event-related brain potentials (ERP provide important information about the sensitivity of the brain to process varying risks. The aim of the present study was to determine how different risk levels are reflected in decision-related ERPs, namely the feedback-related negativity (FRN and the P300. Material and Methods. 20 participants conducted a probabilistic two-choice gambling task while an electroencephalogram was recorded. Choices were provided between a low-risk option yielding low rewards and low losses and a high-risk option yielding high rewards and high losses. While options differed in expected risks, they were equal in expected values and in feedback probabilities. Results. At the behavioral level, participants were generally risk-averse but modulated their risk-taking behavior according to reward history. An early positivity (P200 was enhanced on negative feedbacks in high-risk compared to low-risk options. With regard to the FRN, there were significant amplitude differences between positive and negative feedbacks in high-risk options, but not in low-risk options. While the FRN on negative feedbacks did not vary with decision riskiness, reduced amplitudes were found for positive feedbacks in high-risk relative to low-risk choices. P300 amplitudes were larger in high-risk decisions, and in an additive way, after negative compared to positive feedback. Discussion. The present study revealed significant influences of risk and valence processing on ERPs. FRN findings suggest that the reward prediction error signal is increased after high-risk decisions. The increased P200 on negative feedback in risky decisions suggests that large negative prediction errors are processed as early as in the P200 time range. The later P300 amplitude is sensitive to feedback valence as well as to the risk of a decision. Thus, the P300 carries additional information for reward processing, mainly the enhanced motivational significance of risky

  10. Realistic decision-making processes in a vaccination game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwamura, Yoshiro; Tanimoto, Jun

    2018-03-01

    Previous studies of vaccination games have nearly always assumed a pairwise comparison between a focal and neighboring player for the strategy updating rule, which comes from numerous compiled studies on spatial versions of 2-player and 2-strategy (2 × 2) games such as the spatial prisoner's dilemma (SPD). We propose, in this study, new update rules because the human decision-making process of whether to commit to a vaccination is obviously influenced by a "sense of crisis" or "fear" urging him/her toward vaccination, otherwise they will likely be infected. The rule assumes that an agent evaluates whether getting a vaccination or trying to free ride should be attempted based on observations of whether neighboring non-vaccinators were able to successfully free ride during the previous time-step. Compared to the conventional updating rule (standard pairwise comparison assuming a Fermi function), the new rules generally realize higher vaccination coverage and smaller final epidemic sizes. One rule in particular shows very good performance with significantly smaller epidemic sizes despite comparable levels of vaccination coverage. This is because the specific update rule helps vaccinators spread widely in the domain, which effectively hampers the spread of epidemics.

  11. Ethical implications and decision making in care education process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Layse Kelle Silva

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To determine ethical implications for nursing practice at the point of decision making by nursing professors in practice area. Methodology. A qualitative method was adopted, with use of semistructured interviews with sixteen nursing professors who delivered care at a teaching hospital in Salvador, Bahia, from May to June 2011. The methodological reference used was the discourse of the collective subject (DCS by Lefévre and Lefévre. Results. In response to DCSs, the following subjects appeared: "Ethics is fundamental and of vital importance in the decision making process," "searching for knowledge and research to identify problems and solutions, including alternatives and support for decisions," and "to act in the best way." Conclusion. Professors who provide education about patient care also delivered care. They have the responsibility to consider the ethical implications of decision making because they stimulate fundamental reflection and could positively influence future nursing professionals.

  12. Decision Support Methods for Supply Processes in the Floral Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kutyba Agata

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to show the application of the ABC and AHP (multi-criteria method for hierarchical analysis of decision processes as an important part of decision making in supply processes which are realized in the floral industry. The ABC analysis was performed in order to classify the product mix from the perspective of the demand values. This in consequence enabled us to identify the most important products which were then used as a variant in the AHP method.

  13. The WIPP decision plan: Charting the course for openness in the decision making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagers, J.

    1992-01-01

    In June of 1989, the Secretary of Energy requested that a plan be developed that would clearly outline the prerequisites to opening the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). It was to provide the basis for a decision making process that was not only visible to the public, but one which included public participation. It must also be dynamic enough to effectively deal with the changing legislative, regulatory, and technical environments. Based on a recognized need for openness, the Secretary's Draft Decision Plan was developed. The plan charted the course for ultimately making the decision to declare WIPP ready to receive waste for the start of test phase operations. It outlined to critics and supporters alike the rigorous and thorough process by which the internal decisions were made. The plan identified all internal prerequisites to the decision; charted the review cycles, and targeted the completion dates. It also outlined the processes outside the control of the Department, institutional issues, such as legislative land withdrawal, issuance of permits, and designation of transportation routes

  14. The human factor: behavioral and neural correlates of humanized perception in moral decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majdandžić, Jasminka; Bauer, Herbert; Windischberger, Christian; Moser, Ewald; Engl, Elisabeth; Lamm, Claus

    2012-01-01

    The extent to which people regard others as full-blown individuals with mental states ("humanization") seems crucial for their prosocial motivation towards them. Previous research has shown that decisions about moral dilemmas in which one person can be sacrificed to save multiple others do not consistently follow utilitarian principles. We hypothesized that this behavior can be explained by the potential victim's perceived humanness and an ensuing increase in vicarious emotions and emotional conflict during decision making. Using fMRI, we assessed neural activity underlying moral decisions that affected fictitious persons that had or had not been experimentally humanized. In implicit priming trials, participants either engaged in mentalizing about these persons (Humanized condition) or not (Neutral condition). In subsequent moral dilemmas, participants had to decide about sacrificing these persons' lives in order to save the lives of numerous others. Humanized persons were sacrificed less often, and the activation pattern during decisions about them indicated increased negative affect, emotional conflict, vicarious emotions, and behavioral control (pgACC/mOFC, anterior insula/IFG, aMCC and precuneus/PCC). Besides, we found enhanced effective connectivity between aMCC and anterior insula, which suggests increased emotion regulation during decisions affecting humanized victims. These findings highlight the importance of others' perceived humanness for prosocial behavior - with aversive affect and other-related concern when imagining harming more "human-like" persons acting against purely utilitarian decisions.

  15. The human factor: behavioral and neural correlates of humanized perception in moral decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasminka Majdandžić

    Full Text Available The extent to which people regard others as full-blown individuals with mental states ("humanization" seems crucial for their prosocial motivation towards them. Previous research has shown that decisions about moral dilemmas in which one person can be sacrificed to save multiple others do not consistently follow utilitarian principles. We hypothesized that this behavior can be explained by the potential victim's perceived humanness and an ensuing increase in vicarious emotions and emotional conflict during decision making. Using fMRI, we assessed neural activity underlying moral decisions that affected fictitious persons that had or had not been experimentally humanized. In implicit priming trials, participants either engaged in mentalizing about these persons (Humanized condition or not (Neutral condition. In subsequent moral dilemmas, participants had to decide about sacrificing these persons' lives in order to save the lives of numerous others. Humanized persons were sacrificed less often, and the activation pattern during decisions about them indicated increased negative affect, emotional conflict, vicarious emotions, and behavioral control (pgACC/mOFC, anterior insula/IFG, aMCC and precuneus/PCC. Besides, we found enhanced effective connectivity between aMCC and anterior insula, which suggests increased emotion regulation during decisions affecting humanized victims. These findings highlight the importance of others' perceived humanness for prosocial behavior - with aversive affect and other-related concern when imagining harming more "human-like" persons acting against purely utilitarian decisions.

  16. Technical expertise in the decision process - some comparative observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wynne, B.

    1987-01-01

    The Sizewell-B public Inquiry aimed to be a 'full, fair and thorough' examination of all the facts. This could not really be achieved because the economic and safety cases cannot be exhaustively and definitively analysed. Technical examination cannot resolve these issues - only political commitment and history can, in time. This problem of uncertainties in the decision making process is discussed in detail, indicating the difficulties with large-scale public inquiries such as that for Sizewell-B. Analysis of many case studies of decision making indicates two generalisations. The first is that commitments made on the basis of values or political interests are represented as if they were the inevitable result of economic logic or scientific law. The second is that expert disagreement over technical claims is widely believed to be caused by lack of vigour, competance or impartiality on one side or the other. Recommendations for improving the decision-making process are made. (U.K.)

  17. Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Kumar, Ambuj; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Dual Processing Theories (DPT) assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive) and type 2 (deliberative). Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM) to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called "threshold probability" at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT) and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today's clinical practice.

  18. Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Tsalatsanis

    Full Text Available Dual Processing Theories (DPT assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive and type 2 (deliberative. Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called "threshold probability" at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today's clinical practice.

  19. Balancing Information Analysis and Decision Value: A Model to Exploit the Decision Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    technical intelli- gence e.g. signals and sensors (SIGINT and MASINT), imagery (!MINT), as well and human and open source intelligence (HUMINT and OSINT ...Clark 2006). The ability to capture large amounts of da- ta and the plenitude of modem intelligence information sources provides a rich cache of...many tech- niques for managing information collected and derived from these sources , the exploitation of intelligence assets for decision-making

  20. Preferences for political decision-making processes and issue publics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wojcieszak, M.

    2014-01-01

    Research on public attitudes toward political decision-making has typically focused on politics in general. This study attends to issue-level as well as individual-level factors that can explain political process preferences. First, drawing on the classic distinction between easy and hard political

  1. Participation in decision-making process, incentives and training as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Participation in decision-making process, incentives and training as predictors of organizational commitment among industrial workers. ... African Journal for the Psychological Study of Social Issues ... Results indicated that the three motivational factors jointly and significantly predicted organizational commitment. Also, each ...

  2. Process-related factors associated with disciplinary board decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birkeland, Søren; Christensen, RD; Damsbo, Niels

    2013-01-01

    plays with regard to board decision outcomes. Using complaint cases towards general practitioners, the aim of this study was to identify what process factors are statistically associated with disciplinary actions as seen from the party of the complainant and the defendant general practitioner...

  3. Investigating the Decision-Making Process of Standard Setting Participants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papageorgiou, Spiros

    2010-01-01

    Despite the growing interest of the language testing community in standard setting, primarily due to the use of the Common European Framework of Reference (CEFR-Council of Europe, 2001), the participants' decision-making process in the CEFR standard setting context remains unexplored. This study attempts to fill in this gap by analyzing these…

  4. Developing Holocaust Curricula: The Content Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, David H.

    2008-01-01

    The content decision-making process involved in developing Holocaust curricula is unusually complex and problematic. Educators must consider factors such as historical accuracy, selection of topics covered, potential teaching materials (such as textbooks and literary texts), and graphic materials (such as films and photographs) as they plan their…

  5. Special issue on activity-travel decision processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doherty, S.; Ettema, D.F.

    2006-01-01

    Before you lies the 2006 TRB (Transportation Research Board) Special Issue of Transportation comprising selected papers presented at the 2006 Annual Meeting of the TRB in sessions sponsored by the Travel Behavior and Values committee on activity-travel decision processes. We are pleased to serve

  6. Housing decision making methods for initiation development phase process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zainal, Rozlin; Kasim, Narimah; Sarpin, Norliana; Wee, Seow Ta; Shamsudin, Zarina

    2017-10-01

    Late delivery and sick housing project problems were attributed to poor decision making. These problems are the string of housing developer that prefers to create their own approach based on their experiences and expertise with the simplest approach by just applying the obtainable standards and rules in decision making. This paper seeks to identify the decision making methods for housing development at the initiation phase in Malaysia. The research involved Delphi method by using questionnaire survey which involved 50 numbers of developers as samples for the primary stage of collect data. However, only 34 developers contributed to the second stage of the information gathering process. At the last stage, only 12 developers were left for the final data collection process. Finding affirms that Malaysian developers prefer to make their investment decisions based on simple interpolation of historical data and using simple statistical or mathematical techniques in producing the required reports. It was suggested that they seemed to skip several important decision-making functions at the primary development stage. These shortcomings were mainly due to time and financial constraints and the lack of statistical or mathematical expertise among the professional and management groups in the developer organisations.

  7. The Human Factor: Behavioral and Neural Correlates of Humanized Perception in Moral Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majdandžić, Jasminka; Bauer, Herbert; Windischberger, Christian; Moser, Ewald; Engl, Elisabeth; Lamm, Claus

    2012-01-01

    The extent to which people regard others as full-blown individuals with mental states (“humanization”) seems crucial for their prosocial motivation towards them. Previous research has shown that decisions about moral dilemmas in which one person can be sacrificed to save multiple others do not consistently follow utilitarian principles. We hypothesized that this behavior can be explained by the potential victim’s perceived humanness and an ensuing increase in vicarious emotions and emotional conflict during decision making. Using fMRI, we assessed neural activity underlying moral decisions that affected fictitious persons that had or had not been experimentally humanized. In implicit priming trials, participants either engaged in mentalizing about these persons (Humanized condition) or not (Neutral condition). In subsequent moral dilemmas, participants had to decide about sacrificing these persons’ lives in order to save the lives of numerous others. Humanized persons were sacrificed less often, and the activation pattern during decisions about them indicated increased negative affect, emotional conflict, vicarious emotions, and behavioral control (pgACC/mOFC, anterior insula/IFG, aMCC and precuneus/PCC). Besides, we found enhanced effective connectivity between aMCC and anterior insula, which suggests increased emotion regulation during decisions affecting humanized victims. These findings highlight the importance of others’ perceived humanness for prosocial behavior - with aversive affect and other-related concern when imagining harming more “human-like” persons acting against purely utilitarian decisions. PMID:23082194

  8. Post-event human decision errors: operator action tree/time reliability correlation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, R E; Fragola, J; Wreathall, J

    1982-11-01

    This report documents an interim framework for the quantification of the probability of errors of decision on the part of nuclear power plant operators after the initiation of an accident. The framework can easily be incorporated into an event tree/fault tree analysis. The method presented consists of a structure called the operator action tree and a time reliability correlation which assumes the time available for making a decision to be the dominating factor in situations requiring cognitive human response. This limited approach decreases the magnitude and complexity of the decision modeling task. Specifically, in the past, some human performance models have attempted prediction by trying to emulate sequences of human actions, or by identifying and modeling the information processing approach applicable to the task. The model developed here is directed at describing the statistical performance of a representative group of hypothetical individuals responding to generalized situations.

  9. Post-event human decision errors: operator action tree/time reliability correlation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, R.E.; Fragola, J.; Wreathall, J.

    1982-11-01

    This report documents an interim framework for the quantification of the probability of errors of decision on the part of nuclear power plant operators after the initiation of an accident. The framework can easily be incorporated into an event tree/fault tree analysis. The method presented consists of a structure called the operator action tree and a time reliability correlation which assumes the time available for making a decision to be the dominating factor in situations requiring cognitive human response. This limited approach decreases the magnitude and complexity of the decision modeling task. Specifically, in the past, some human performance models have attempted prediction by trying to emulate sequences of human actions, or by identifying and modeling the information processing approach applicable to the task. The model developed here is directed at describing the statistical performance of a representative group of hypothetical individuals responding to generalized situations

  10. Motivators That Intervene in the Decision Making Process in Tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra VINEREAN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Being part of the tourism industries involves many researches and analyses in different periods of time, regarding different segments of consumers. Therefore, it is important to be aware of all the factors and motivators that influence a tourist to purchase a particular tourism services. These complex variables are crucial for the final purchase decision of an offer with emotional value for customers. This paper presents the principals motivators which intervene in the decision making process that should be acknowledged by marketers in order to provide the ideal tourism package.

  11. A Mining Algorithm for Extracting Decision Process Data Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina-Claudia DOLEAN

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces an algorithm that mines logs of user interaction with simulation software. It outputs a model that explicitly shows the data perspective of the decision process, namely the Decision Data Model (DDM. In the first part of the paper we focus on how the DDM is extracted by our mining algorithm. We introduce it as pseudo-code and, then, provide explanations and examples of how it actually works. In the second part of the paper, we use a series of small case studies to prove the robustness of the mining algorithm and how it deals with the most common patterns we found in real logs.

  12. Strategic-Decision Quality in Public Organizations: An Information Processing Perspective.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.R.J. George (Bert); S. Desmidt (Sebastian)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThis study draws on information processing theory to investigate predictors of strategic-decision quality in public organizations. Information processing theory argues that (a) rational planning practices contribute to strategic-decision quality by injecting information into decision

  13. Decision process regarding nuclear generation: the Brazilian case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metri, Paulo

    2009-01-01

    Countries face a constant need to expand their electricity generation capacities. Electricity sources in a country and the respective generation technologies have different technical, economic, environmental, social and political characteristics. The evaluation criteria of the generating sources and their technologies must not be restricted to the supply of the increased demand at the lowest cost. Compliance with other public policies must be considered in the decision process of the expansion, for instance, maximize local acquisition and minimize foreign fuel purchase. Countries have different energy resources, as well as different levels of technology and development in their industrial parks. Brazil has many mineral reserves, besides the hydraulic potential, for supporting the expansion. The decision process in this sector, which includes nuclear energy as a sub-sector, requires analyzing and evaluating various information and data. In this stage, a quantitative model providing a first approach for the decision may be applied. The new institutional structure adopted in the sector during the 1990s and 2000s brought about new conditions into an already complex decision process. In such context of methodology complexity, political aspects gain relevance, becoming of increased importance. The political environment is described and the players are identified. One conclusion and a few recommendations are provided. (author)

  14. Consumer recycling: An ethical decision-making process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Culiberg, Barbara; Bajde, Domen

    2013-01-01

    Although recycling is often experienced as a moral dilemma, studies that systematically approach this issue from an ethical perspective are scarce. Moreover, previous studies have explored recycling by mainly using single ethical constructs, such as moral norms, values or obligations, rarely...... approaching it as an ethical decision-making process. Our study takes a more holistic approach and integrates the recycling literature with business ethics theory in order to develop a conceptual model of ethical decision making involved in recycling. The model is based on Jones' issue-contingent model...... using structural equation modelling. The results of our study confirmed the relationships between three key facets of ethical decision making: moral recognition, moral judgment and moral intention. Higher levels of moral recognition were found to lead to more positive moral judgments, which in turn...

  15. Where should I send it? Optimizing the submission decision process.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago Salinas

    Full Text Available How do scientists decide where to submit manuscripts? Many factors influence this decision, including prestige, acceptance probability, turnaround time, target audience, fit, and impact factor. Here, we present a framework for evaluating where to submit a manuscript based on the theory of Markov decision processes. We derive two models, one in which an author is trying to optimally maximize citations and another in which that goal is balanced by either minimizing the number of resubmissions or the total time in review. We parameterize the models with data on acceptance probability, submission-to-decision times, and impact factors for 61 ecology journals. We find that submission sequences beginning with Ecology Letters, Ecological Monographs, or PLOS ONE could be optimal depending on the importance given to time to acceptance or number of resubmissions. This analysis provides some guidance on where to submit a manuscript given the individual-specific values assigned to these disparate objectives.

  16. Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri, L.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

  17. Active Learning of Markov Decision Processes for System Verification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yingke; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2012-01-01

    deterministic Markov decision processes from data by actively guiding the selection of input actions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed by learning system models of slot machines, and it is demonstrated that the proposed active learning procedure can significantly reduce the amount of data required...... demanding process, and this shortcoming has motivated the development of algorithms for automatically learning system models from observed system behaviors. Recently, algorithms have been proposed for learning Markov decision process representations of reactive systems based on alternating sequences...... of input/output observations. While alleviating the problem of manually constructing a system model, the collection/generation of observed system behaviors can also prove demanding. Consequently we seek to minimize the amount of data required. In this paper we propose an algorithm for learning...

  18. Conformity and Internalisation in a Participative Decision Making Process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bombaerts, Gunter

    2003-01-01

    This paper reflects upon the stretching concept of the RISCOM model. We agree with the Habermassian point of departure that a competent speaker makes validity claims on truth, legitimacy and authenticity and partially with the Dialogue Project's conclusions that opening the black box of science is not possible in a decision making process (DMP) on a highly technical issue. Accordingly, we see an important role for a regulator to stretch the implementer, i.e. balance commercial and guardian ethics in the DMP. However, some caution is needed. Conformity studies indicate the large influence of group norms on individuals. When individuals lack personal reference frames of a particular issue they are prone to conform. The more values are shared, the more group members are convinced of the correctness. And social psychology shows more. In studies on persuasion, a difference between compliance and internalisation is made. Compliance is attained from rewards and coercive sources of power, whereas internalisation originates from expertise, legitimacy and credibility. Because of the shift to legitimacy and authenticity in the DMP, alignment of the norms and internalisation of discussed values becomes more apparent in the RISCOM participation model. Conformity reactions and possible internalisation are normal aspect of human interaction and not necessarily a negative aspect of public involvement. But keeping the importance of conformity in mind, a few consequences can be mentioned with regard to the relation implementer-regulator, the non-participation majority, and non-participating critics. The new role of the regulator and the involved public in the RISCOM mode] cannot absolutely avoid the risks due to conformity, it can only decrease the conformity influence

  19. Integrating Click-Through and Eye-Tracking Logs for Decision-Making Process Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razvan PETRUSEL

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In current software every click of the users is logged, therefore a wealth of click-through information exists. Besides, recent technologies have made eye-tracking affordable and an alternative to other human-computer interaction means (e.g. mouse, touchscreens. A big challenge is to make sense of all this data and convert it into useful information. This paper introduces a possible solution placed in the context of decision-making processes. We show how the decision maker's activity can be traced using two means: mouse tracing (i.e. clicks and eye-tracking (i.e. eye fixations. Then, we discuss a mining approach, based on the log, which extracts a Decision Data Model (DDM. We use the DDM to determine, post-hoc, which decision strategy was employed. The paper concludes with a validation based on a controlled experiment.

  20. Working memory and decision processes in visual area V4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin eHayden

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Recognizing and responding to a remembered stimulus requires the coordination of perception, working memory and decision-making. To investigate the role of visual cortex in these processes, we recorded responses of single V4 neurons during performance of a delayed match-to-sample task that incorporates rapid serial visual presentation of natural images. We found that neuronal activity during the delay period after the cue but before the images depends on the identity of the remembered image and that this change persists while distractors appear. This persistent response modulation has been identified as a diagnostic criterion for putative working memory signals; our data thus suggest that working memory may involve reactivation of sensory neurons. When the remembered image reappears in the neuron’s receptive field, visually evoked responses are enhanced; this match enhancement is a diagnostic criterion for decision. One model that predicts these data is the matched filter hypothesis, which holds that during search V4 neurons change their tuning so as to match the remembered cue, and thus become detectors for that image. More generally, these results suggest that V4 neurons participate in the perceptual, working memory and decision processes that are needed to perform memory-guided decision-making.

  1. Working memory and decision processes in visual area v4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayden, Benjamin Y; Gallant, Jack L

    2013-01-01

    Recognizing and responding to a remembered stimulus requires the coordination of perception, working memory, and decision-making. To investigate the role of visual cortex in these processes, we recorded responses of single V4 neurons during performance of a delayed match-to-sample task that incorporates rapid serial visual presentation of natural images. We found that neuronal activity during the delay period after the cue but before the images depends on the identity of the remembered image and that this change persists while distractors appear. This persistent response modulation has been identified as a diagnostic criterion for putative working memory signals; our data thus suggest that working memory may involve reactivation of sensory neurons. When the remembered image reappears in the neuron's receptive field, visually evoked responses are enhanced; this match enhancement is a diagnostic criterion for decision. One model that predicts these data is the matched filter hypothesis, which holds that during search V4 neurons change their tuning so as to match the remembered cue, and thus become detectors for that image. More generally, these results suggest that V4 neurons participate in the perceptual, working memory, and decision processes that are needed to perform memory-guided decision-making.

  2. The features of decision making process in international companies. Are companies in control of their own decisions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasia JELEVA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The following article deals with the main causes of irrational decision making process in companies and with respective solutions to make decisions more rational and effective. With the aid of relevant literature, the ways managers, groups and leaders make decisions in reality will be clarified. Besides, the solutions to rational decisions examined through the perspective of managers, leaders and groups. Thus, the background of this article is the question “Are companies in control of their own decisions?” In addition, this paper includes relevant information about the features of decision making process, basic types of decisions, describes the most essential approach in management regarding to decision making and presents the top worst and best business decisions of all time.

  3. Affective processes in human-automation interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merritt, Stephanie M

    2011-08-01

    This study contributes to the literature on automation reliance by illuminating the influences of user moods and emotions on reliance on automated systems. Past work has focused predominantly on cognitive and attitudinal variables, such as perceived machine reliability and trust. However, recent work on human decision making suggests that affective variables (i.e., moods and emotions) are also important. Drawing from the affect infusion model, significant effects of affect are hypothesized. Furthermore, a new affectively laden attitude termed liking is introduced. Participants watched video clips selected to induce positive or negative moods, then interacted with a fictitious automated system on an X-ray screening task At five time points, important variables were assessed including trust, liking, perceived machine accuracy, user self-perceived accuracy, and reliance.These variables, along with propensity to trust machines and state affect, were integrated in a structural equation model. Happiness significantly increased trust and liking for the system throughout the task. Liking was the only variable that significantly predicted reliance early in the task. Trust predicted reliance later in the task, whereas perceived machine accuracy and user self-perceived accuracy had no significant direct effects on reliance at any time. Affective influences on automation reliance are demonstrated, suggesting that this decision-making process may be less rational and more emotional than previously acknowledged. Liking for a new system may be key to appropriate reliance, particularly early in the task. Positive affect can be easily induced and may be a lever for increasing liking.

  4. Introduction of new vaccines: decision-making process in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uddin, Jasim; Sarma, Haribondhu; Bari, Tajul I; Koehlmoos, Tracey P

    2013-06-01

    The understanding of the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines helps establish why vaccines are adopted or not. It also contributes to building a sustainable demand for vaccines in a country. The purpose of the study was to map and analyze the formal decision-making process in relation to the introduction of new vaccines within the context of health policy and health systems and identify the ways of making decisions to introduce new vaccines in Bangladesh. During February-April 2011, a qualitative assessment was made at the national level to evaluate the decision-making process around the adoption of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The study population included: policy-level people, programme heads or associates, and key decision-makers of the Government, private sector, non-governmental organizations, and international agencies at the national level. In total, 13 key informants were purposively selected. Data were collected by interviewing key informants and reviewing documents. Data were analyzed thematically. The findings revealed that the actors from different sectors at the policy level were involved in the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines. They included policy-makers from the ministries of health and family welfare, finance, and local government and rural development; academicians; researchers; representatives from professional associations; development partners; and members of different committees on EPI. They contributed to the introduction of new vaccines in their own capacity. The burden of disease, research findings on vaccine-preventable diseases, political issues relating to outbreaks of certain diseases, initiatives of international and local stakeholders, pressure of development partners, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) support, and financial matters were the key factors in the introduction of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The slow introduction and uptake of new vaccines is a concern

  5. Decision Making under Uncertainty: A Neural Model based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh P N Rao

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem faced by animals is learning to select actions based on noisy sensory information and incomplete knowledge of the world. It has been suggested that the brain engages in Bayesian inference during perception but how such probabilistic representations are used to select actions has remained unclear. Here we propose a neural model of action selection and decision making based on the theory of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. Actions are selected based not on a single optimal estimate of state but on the posterior distribution over states (the belief state. We show how such a model provides a unified framework for explaining experimental results in decision making that involve both information gathering and overt actions. The model utilizes temporal difference (TD learning for maximizing expected reward. The resulting neural architecture posits an active role for the neocortex in belief computation while ascribing a role to the basal ganglia in belief representation, value computation, and action selection. When applied to the random dots motion discrimination task, model neurons representing belief exhibit responses similar to those of LIP neurons in primate neocortex. The appropriate threshold for switching from information gathering to overt actions emerges naturally during reward maximization. Additionally, the time course of reward prediction error in the model shares similarities with dopaminergic responses in the basal ganglia during the random dots task. For tasks with a deadline, the model learns a decision making strategy that changes with elapsed time, predicting a collapsing decision threshold consistent with some experimental studies. The model provides a new framework for understanding neural decision making and suggests an important role for interactions between the neocortex and the basal ganglia in learning the mapping between probabilistic sensory representations and actions that maximize

  6. Identification of Optimal Policies in Markov Decision Processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    46 2010, č. 3 (2010), s. 558-570 ISSN 0023-5954. [International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Economy and Industry. České Budějovice, 15.06.2009-18.06.2009] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/0107; GA ČR GA402/07/1113 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : finite state Markov decision processes * discounted and average costs * elimination of suboptimal policies Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.461, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/sladky-identification of optimal policies in markov decision processes.pdf

  7. A dynamic dual process model of risky decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diederich, Adele; Trueblood, Jennifer S

    2018-03-01

    Many phenomena in judgment and decision making are often attributed to the interaction of 2 systems of reasoning. Although these so-called dual process theories can explain many types of behavior, they are rarely formalized as mathematical or computational models. Rather, dual process models are typically verbal theories, which are difficult to conclusively evaluate or test. In the cases in which formal (i.e., mathematical) dual process models have been proposed, they have not been quantitatively fit to experimental data and are often silent when it comes to the timing of the 2 systems. In the current article, we present a dynamic dual process model framework of risky decision making that provides an account of the timing and interaction of the 2 systems and can explain both choice and response-time data. We outline several predictions of the model, including how changes in the timing of the 2 systems as well as time pressure can influence behavior. The framework also allows us to explore different assumptions about how preferences are constructed by the 2 systems as well as the dynamic interaction of the 2 systems. In particular, we examine 3 different possible functional forms of the 2 systems and 2 possible ways the systems can interact (simultaneously or serially). We compare these dual process models with 2 single process models using risky decision making data from Guo, Trueblood, and Diederich (2017). Using this data, we find that 1 of the dual process models significantly outperforms the other models in accounting for both choices and response times. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. A Make-or-buy Decision Process for Outsourcing

    OpenAIRE

    Bajec, Patricija; Jakomin, Igor

    2010-01-01

    Should firms perform logistics services on their own or should they buy them from a logistics provider? Today’s global competition forces companies to re-evaluate their existing processes, technologies and services in order to focuse on strategic activities. Outsourcing is now increasingly used as a competitive weapon in today’s economy. External parties can often do job quicker, cheaper and better. This has resulted in an increasing awareness of the importance of the make-or-buy decision, th...

  9. A Partially Observed Markov Decision Process for Dynamic Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Yossi Aviv; Amit Pazgal

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a stylized partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) framework to study a dynamic pricing problem faced by sellers of fashion-like goods. We consider a retailer that plans to sell a given stock of items during a finite sales season. The objective of the retailer is to dynamically price the product in a way that maximizes expected revenues. Our model brings together various types of uncertainties about the demand, some of which are resolvable through sales ob...

  10. A consumer decision process model for the Internet

    OpenAIRE

    Ambaye, Michele

    2005-01-01

    This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University. This investigation attempts to improve understanding of the behaviour of internet consumers from an empirical basis. It reports on the results of studies into decision-making processes of consumers on the internet in the context of apparel retailing. Consumers consisting of a profile sample of working female consumers, aged between 18 and 45, in the ABC1 social group, are considered in terms ...

  11. Mechanisms of public participation in the decision-making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corner, J.

    1993-01-01

    Public inquiries, hearings, referenda and government reviews are among a number of commonly mechanisms through which the public in the relevant OECD countries participate in the decision-making process in respect of nuclear power and its development. The scope, application and effectiveness of these procedures appear to vary from country to country; differences which may result from styles of government, history, national interest and other factors. We listen to each OECD member in turn, explaining how is the situation in his country

  12. A decision-making process model of young online shoppers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chin-Feng; Wang, Hui-Fang

    2008-12-01

    Based on the concepts of brand equity, means-end chain, and Web site trust, this study proposes a novel model called the consumption decision-making process of adolescents (CDMPA) to understand adolescents' Internet consumption habits and behavioral intention toward particular sporting goods. The findings of the CDMPA model can help marketers understand adolescents' consumption preferences and habits for developing effective Internet marketing strategies.

  13. Mean-Variance Optimization in Markov Decision Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Mannor, Shie; Tsitsiklis, John N.

    2011-01-01

    We consider finite horizon Markov decision processes under performance measures that involve both the mean and the variance of the cumulative reward. We show that either randomized or history-based policies can improve performance. We prove that the complexity of computing a policy that maximizes the mean reward under a variance constraint is NP-hard for some cases, and strongly NP-hard for others. We finally offer pseudo-polynomial exact and approximation algorithms.

  14. "The Gaze Heuristic:" Biography of an Adaptively Rational Decision Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Robert P

    2017-04-01

    This article is a case study that describes the natural and human history of the gaze heuristic. The gaze heuristic is an interception heuristic that utilizes a single input (deviation from a constant angle of approach) repeatedly as a task is performed. Its architecture, advantages, and limitations are described in detail. A history of the gaze heuristic is then presented. In natural history, the gaze heuristic is the only known technique used by predators to intercept prey. In human history the gaze heuristic was discovered accidentally by Royal Air Force (RAF) fighter command just prior to World War II. As it was never discovered by the Luftwaffe, the technique conferred a decisive advantage upon the RAF throughout the war. After the end of the war in America, German technology was combined with the British heuristic to create the Sidewinder AIM9 missile, the most successful autonomous weapon ever built. There are no plans to withdraw it or replace its guiding gaze heuristic. The case study demonstrates that the gaze heuristic is a specific heuristic type that takes a single best input at the best time (take the best 2 ). Its use is an adaptively rational response to specific, rapidly evolving decision environments that has allowed those animals/humans/machines who use it to survive, prosper, and multiply relative to those who do not. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  15. Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this document is to describe a Framework for conducting human health risk assessments that are responsive to the needs of decision‐making processes in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

  16. SOCOM Training and Rehearsal System (STRS) Process Improvement and Decision Support System (DSS) Development

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Crossland, Neal; Broussard, Steve

    2005-01-01

    ...) Process Improvement and Decision Support System (DSS) Development. Discussion sequence is: Why the study? Objectives; Areas of inquiry; Study products; Observations; Recommendations; Decision Support System.

  17. The application of reduced-processing decision support systems to facilitate the acquisition of decision-making skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Nathan C; Wiggins, Mark W; Childs, Merilyn; Fogarty, Gerard

    2013-06-01

    The study was designed to examine whether the availability of reduced-processing decision support system interfaces could improve the decision making of inexperienced personnel in the context of Although research into reduced-processing decision support systems has demonstrated benefits in minimizing cognitive load, these benefits have not typically translated into direct improvements in decision accuracy because of the tendency for inexperienced personnel to focus on less-critical information. The authors investigated whether reduced-processing interfaces that direct users' attention toward the most critical cues for decision making can produce improvements in decision-making performance. Novice participants made incident command-related decisions in experimental conditions that differed according to the amount of information that was available within the interface, the level of control that they could exert over the presentation of information, and whether they had received decision training. The results revealed that despite receiving training, participants improved in decision accuracy only when they were provided with an interface that restricted information access to the most critical cues. It was concluded that an interface that restricts information access to only the most critical cues in the scenario can facilitate improvements in decision performance. Decision support system interfaces that encourage the processing of the most critical cues have the potential to improve the accuracy and timeliness of decisions made by inexperienced personnel.

  18. Dissociable processes underlying decisions in the Iowa Gambling Task: a new integrative framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Napoli Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT is a common paradigm used to study the interactions between emotions and decision making, yet little consensus exists on the cognitive process determining participants' decisions, what affects them, and how these processes interact with each other. A novel conceptual framework is proposed according to which behavior in the IGT reflects a balance between two dissociable processes; a cognitively demanding process that tracks each option's long-term payoff, and a lower-level, automatic process that is primarily sensitive to loss frequency and magnitude. Methods A behavioral experiment was carried out with a modified version of IGT. In this modified version, participants went through an additional phase of interaction, designed to measure performance without further learning, in which no feedback on individual decisions was given. A secondary distractor task was presented in either the first or the second phase of the experiment. Behavioral measures of performance tracking both payoff and frequency sensitivity in choices were collected throughout the experiment. Results Consistent with our framework, the results confirmed that: (a the two competing cognitive processes can be dissociated; (b that learning from decision outcomes requires central cognitive resources to estimate long-term payoff; and (c that the decision phase itself can be carried out during an interfering task once learning has occurred. Conclusion The experimental results support our novel description of the cognitive processes underlying performance in the Iowa Gambling Task. They also suggest that patients' impairments in this and other gambling paradigms can originate from a number of different causes, including a failure in allocating resources among cognitive strategies. This latter interpretation might be particularly useful in explaining the impairments of patients with ventromedial prefrontal cortex lesions and, by extension

  19. Searching Choices: Quantifying Decision-Making Processes Using Search Engine Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moat, Helen Susannah; Olivola, Christopher Y; Chater, Nick; Preis, Tobias

    2016-07-01

    When making a decision, humans consider two types of information: information they have acquired through their prior experience of the world, and further information they gather to support the decision in question. Here, we present evidence that data from search engines such as Google can help us model both sources of information. We show that statistics from search engines on the frequency of content on the Internet can help us estimate the statistical structure of prior experience; and, specifically, we outline how such statistics can inform psychological theories concerning the valuation of human lives, or choices involving delayed outcomes. Turning to information gathering, we show that search query data might help measure human information gathering, and it may predict subsequent decisions. Such data enable us to compare information gathered across nations, where analyses suggest, for example, a greater focus on the future in countries with a higher per capita GDP. We conclude that search engine data constitute a valuable new resource for cognitive scientists, offering a fascinating new tool for understanding the human decision-making process. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Topics in Cognitive Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Cognitive Science Society.

  20. Frames, biases, and rational decision-making in the human brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Martino, Benedetto; Kumaran, Dharshan; Seymour, Ben; Dolan, Raymond J

    2006-08-04

    Human choices are remarkably susceptible to the manner in which options are presented. This so-called "framing effect" represents a striking violation of standard economic accounts of human rationality, although its underlying neurobiology is not understood. We found that the framing effect was specifically associated with amygdala activity, suggesting a key role for an emotional system in mediating decision biases. Moreover, across individuals, orbital and medial prefrontal cortex activity predicted a reduced susceptibility to the framing effect. This finding highlights the importance of incorporating emotional processes within models of human choice and suggests how the brain may modulate the effect of these biasing influences to approximate rationality.

  1. Absolutely relative or relatively absolute: violations of value invariance in human decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teodorescu, Andrei R; Moran, Rani; Usher, Marius

    2016-02-01

    Making decisions based on relative rather than absolute information processing is tied to choice optimality via the accumulation of evidence differences and to canonical neural processing via accumulation of evidence ratios. These theoretical frameworks predict invariance of decision latencies to absolute intensities that maintain differences and ratios, respectively. While information about the absolute values of the choice alternatives is not necessary for choosing the best alternative, it may nevertheless hold valuable information about the context of the decision. To test the sensitivity of human decision making to absolute values, we manipulated the intensities of brightness stimuli pairs while preserving either their differences or their ratios. Although asked to choose the brighter alternative relative to the other, participants responded faster to higher absolute values. Thus, our results provide empirical evidence for human sensitivity to task irrelevant absolute values indicating a hard-wired mechanism that precedes executive control. Computational investigations of several modelling architectures reveal two alternative accounts for this phenomenon, which combine absolute and relative processing. One account involves accumulation of differences with activation dependent processing noise and the other emerges from accumulation of absolute values subject to the temporal dynamics of lateral inhibition. The potential adaptive role of such choice mechanisms is discussed.

  2. Cortical Network Dynamics of Perceptual Decision-Making in the Human Brain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus eSiegel

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Goal-directed behavior requires the flexible transformation of sensory evidence about our environment into motor actions. Studies of perceptual decision-making have shown that this transformation is distributed across several widely separated brain regions. Yet, little is known about how decision-making emerges from the dynamic interactions among these regions. Here, we review a series of studies, in which we characterized the cortical network interactions underlying a perceptual decision process in the human brain. We used magnetoencephalography (MEG to measure the large-scale cortical population dynamics underlying each of the sub-processes involved in this decision: the encoding of sensory evidence and action plan, the mapping between the two, and the attentional selection of task-relevant evidence. We found that these sub-processes are mediated by neuronal oscillations within specific frequency ranges. Localized gamma-band oscillations in sensory and motor cortices reflect the encoding of the sensory evidence and motor plan. Large-scale oscillations across widespread cortical networks mediate the integrative processes connecting these local networks: Gamma- and beta-band oscillations across frontal, parietal and sensory cortices serve the selection of relevant sensory evidence and its flexible mapping onto action plans. In sum, our results suggest that perceptual decisions are mediated by oscillatory interactions within overlapping local and large-scale cortical networks.

  3. Market Segmentation in the Decision Making Process in Tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra VINEREAN

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I examine the responses of 154 tourists in relation to their predisposition to purchase and the patterns and habits that are usually decisive in the decision making process regarding tourism services or products. For this research, I conducted a selective direct research, whose purpose was to obtain a segmentation of consumers who purchase tourism services based on specific dimensions of behavior. This research also implied studying the behavior of current and potential customers who purchase travel services depending on several variables for establishing different consumption habits. Thus, to establish a more detailed image of the tourists who participated in this direct and selective research, the analysis involved a factor analysis and a cluster analysis.

  4. Public involvement in the decision making process, Argentine experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clein, D.

    1999-01-01

    In the frame of a young participative democracy the Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica (C.N.E.A.), technical and legal responsible for radioactive waste management, is developing a plan for the close out of tailings facilities from past mining and milling operations and the environmental restoration of nine different sites in six provinces all over the country. In the first site, Malargue Facility, different activities have been developed promoting public involvement in the decision making process. The lessons learned and the experience acquired have given the background for the systematization of public consultation in the ongoing and future stages of the plan. Malargue's experience in this field will be analyzed stressing on different aspects considered of importance for the design of a communicational strategy adapted to the characteristics of a society without experience in this field. The influence of public concern on conservative bias of technical decisions will be evaluated. (author)

  5. Simulation-based algorithms for Markov decision processes

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, Hyeong Soo; Fu, Michael C; Marcus, Steven I

    2013-01-01

    Markov decision process (MDP) models are widely used for modeling sequential decision-making problems that arise in engineering, economics, computer science, and the social sciences.  Many real-world problems modeled by MDPs have huge state and/or action spaces, giving an opening to the curse of dimensionality and so making practical solution of the resulting models intractable.  In other cases, the system of interest is too complex to allow explicit specification of some of the MDP model parameters, but simulation samples are readily available (e.g., for random transitions and costs). For these settings, various sampling and population-based algorithms have been developed to overcome the difficulties of computing an optimal solution in terms of a policy and/or value function.  Specific approaches include adaptive sampling, evolutionary policy iteration, evolutionary random policy search, and model reference adaptive search. This substantially enlarged new edition reflects the latest developments in novel ...

  6. Shared decision making and medication management in the recovery process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deegan, Patricia E; Drake, Robert E

    2006-11-01

    Mental health professionals commonly conceptualize medication management for people with severe mental illness in terms of strategies to increase compliance or adherence. The authors argue that compliance is an inadequate construct because it fails to capture the dynamic complexity of autonomous clients who must navigate decisional conflicts in learning to manage disorders over the course of years or decades. Compliance is rooted in medical paternalism and is at odds with principles of person-centered care and evidence-based medicine. Using medication is an active process that involves complex decision making and a chance to work through decisional conflicts. It requires a partnership between two experts: the client and the practitioner. Shared decision making provides a model for them to assess a treatment's advantages and disadvantages within the context of recovering a life after a diagnosis of a major mental disorder.

  7. Gender inequalities in the workplace: The effects of organizational structures, processes, practices, and decision makers’ sexism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cailin Susan Stamarski

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Gender inequality in organizations is a complex phenomenon that can be seen in organizational structures, processes, and practices. For women, some of the most harmful gender inequalities are enacted within Human Resources (HR practices. This is because HR practices (i.e., policies, decision-making, and their enactment affect the hiring, training, pay, and promotion of women. We propose a model of gender discrimination in HR that emphasizes the reciprocal nature of gender inequalities within organizations. We suggest that gender discrimination in HR-related decision-making and in the enactment of HR practices stems from gender inequalities in broader organizational structures, processes, and practices. This includes leadership, structure, strategy, culture, organizational climate, as well as HR policies. In addition, organizational decision makers’ levels of sexism can affect their likelihood of making gender biased HR-related decisions and/or behaving in a sexist manner while enacting HR practices. Importantly, institutional discrimination in organizational structures, processes, and practices play a pre-eminent role because not only do they affect HR practices, they also provide a socializing context for organizational decision makers’ levels of hostile and benevolent sexism. Although we portray gender inequality as a self-reinforcing system that can perpetuate discrimination, important levers for reducing discrimination are identified.

  8. Gender inequalities in the workplace: the effects of organizational structures, processes, practices, and decision makers’ sexism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamarski, Cailin S.; Son Hing, Leanne S.

    2015-01-01

    Gender inequality in organizations is a complex phenomenon that can be seen in organizational structures, processes, and practices. For women, some of the most harmful gender inequalities are enacted within human resources (HRs) practices. This is because HR practices (i.e., policies, decision-making, and their enactment) affect the hiring, training, pay, and promotion of women. We propose a model of gender discrimination in HR that emphasizes the reciprocal nature of gender inequalities within organizations. We suggest that gender discrimination in HR-related decision-making and in the enactment of HR practices stems from gender inequalities in broader organizational structures, processes, and practices. This includes leadership, structure, strategy, culture, organizational climate, as well as HR policies. In addition, organizational decision makers’ levels of sexism can affect their likelihood of making gender biased HR-related decisions and/or behaving in a sexist manner while enacting HR practices. Importantly, institutional discrimination in organizational structures, processes, and practices play a pre-eminent role because not only do they affect HR practices, they also provide a socializing context for organizational decision makers’ levels of hostile and benevolent sexism. Although we portray gender inequality as a self-reinforcing system that can perpetuate discrimination, important levers for reducing discrimination are identified. PMID:26441775

  9. Gender inequalities in the workplace: the effects of organizational structures, processes, practices, and decision makers' sexism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamarski, Cailin S; Son Hing, Leanne S

    2015-01-01

    Gender inequality in organizations is a complex phenomenon that can be seen in organizational structures, processes, and practices. For women, some of the most harmful gender inequalities are enacted within human resources (HRs) practices. This is because HR practices (i.e., policies, decision-making, and their enactment) affect the hiring, training, pay, and promotion of women. We propose a model of gender discrimination in HR that emphasizes the reciprocal nature of gender inequalities within organizations. We suggest that gender discrimination in HR-related decision-making and in the enactment of HR practices stems from gender inequalities in broader organizational structures, processes, and practices. This includes leadership, structure, strategy, culture, organizational climate, as well as HR policies. In addition, organizational decision makers' levels of sexism can affect their likelihood of making gender biased HR-related decisions and/or behaving in a sexist manner while enacting HR practices. Importantly, institutional discrimination in organizational structures, processes, and practices play a pre-eminent role because not only do they affect HR practices, they also provide a socializing context for organizational decision makers' levels of hostile and benevolent sexism. Although we portray gender inequality as a self-reinforcing system that can perpetuate discrimination, important levers for reducing discrimination are identified.

  10. Gender inequalities in the workplace: The effects of organizational structures, processes, practices, and decision makers’ sexism

    OpenAIRE

    Cailin Susan Stamarski; Leanne S. Son Hing

    2015-01-01

    Gender inequality in organizations is a complex phenomenon that can be seen in organizational structures, processes, and practices. For women, some of the most harmful gender inequalities are enacted within human resources (HRs) practices. This is because HR practices (i.e., policies, decision-making, and their enactment) affect the hiring, training, pay, and promotion of women. We propose a model of gender discrimination in HR that emphasizes the reciprocal nature of gender inequalities with...

  11. Strategic-decision quality in public organizations : an information processing perspective

    OpenAIRE

    George, Bert; Desmidt, Sebastian

    2018-01-01

    textabstractThis study draws on information processing theory to investigate predictors of strategic-decision quality in public organizations. Information processing theory argues that (a) rational planning practices contribute to strategic-decision quality by injecting information into decision making and (b) decision makers contribute to strategic-decision quality by exchanging information during decision making. These assumptions are tested upon 55 Flemish pupil guidance centers. Rational ...

  12. Influence of biases in numerical magnitude allocation on human prosocial decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arshad, Qadeer; Nigmatullina, Yuliya; Siddiqui, Shuaib; Franka, Mustafa; Mediratta, Saniya; Ramachandaran, Sanjeev; Lobo, Rhannon; Malhotra, Paresh A; Roberts, R E; Bronstein, Adolfo M

    2017-12-01

    Over the past decade neuroscientific research has attempted to probe the neurobiological underpinnings of human prosocial decision making. Such research has almost ubiquitously employed tasks such as the dictator game or similar variations (i.e., ultimatum game). Considering the explicit numerical nature of such tasks, it is surprising that the influence of numerical cognition on decision making during task performance remains unknown. While performing these tasks, participants typically tend to anchor on a 50:50 split that necessitates an explicit numerical judgement (i.e., number-pair bisection). Accordingly, we hypothesize that the decision-making process during the dictator game recruits overlapping cognitive processes to those known to be engaged during number-pair bisection. We observed that biases in numerical magnitude allocation correlated with the formulation of decisions during the dictator game. That is, intrinsic biases toward smaller numerical magnitudes were associated with the formulation of less favorable decisions, whereas biases toward larger magnitudes were associated with more favorable choices. We proceeded to corroborate this relationship by subliminally and systematically inducing biases in numerical magnitude toward either higher or lower numbers using a visuo-vestibular stimulation paradigm. Such subliminal alterations in numerical magnitude allocation led to proportional and corresponding changes to an individual's decision making during the dictator game. Critically, no relationship was observed between neither intrinsic nor induced biases in numerical magnitude on decision making when assessed using a nonnumerical-based prosocial questionnaire. Our findings demonstrate numerical influences on decisions formulated during the dictator game and highlight the necessity to control for confounds associated with numerical cognition in human decision-making paradigms. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We demonstrate that intrinsic biases in numerical magnitude

  13. Legality, legitimacy and formal and informal decision-making processes: when does a decision become legitimate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwetkoff, C.

    2004-01-01

    A few words on the purpose of this paper are given by way of introduction. A brief analysis will be made of the relationship between legality and legitimacy in relation to decision-making processes and within the context of the policies concerning the public management of technological risks. The aim is to raise questions and outline some reflections based on the theory of the state, from the perspective of the conditions of the institutionalization of power. I shall first clarify a few conceptual points. The notion of legality refers to the notion of compliance with legal standards, that is to say, with the law. Is the decision made by a person empowered by law so do to (legal competence)? Is it taken in compliance with legal procedure? And are the effects implicitly in keeping with the spirit of the law? The legitimacy of the power of those who govern, or the legitimacy of their decisions, is not determined solely by legal standards but rather, is a matter of individual and social representation or view. As Hobbes says, in essence, to govern is to convince: to convince people of the rightfulness of the source of the power of those who govern and of the action or public policies that they formulate. The paper is organised around three propositions: 1. The role of the legitimacy or social acceptability of public policies has always been an element of the way all political systems function. This role, however, occupies an increasingly important place on the political agenda in a societal decision-making context that has undergone irreversible changes. 2. Although the essence of the social legitimacy of public policies remains the same, the conditions, mechanisms and criteria evolve. 3. The critical centrality of social legitimacy, together with the evolution of the criteria for legitimate decision, today modify the decision-making mechanisms that were established in response to the requirements of classical democracy. We observe a political organisation i n the

  14. The roles of dopamine and serotonin in decision making: evidence from pharmacological experiments in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Robert D

    2011-01-01

    Neurophysiological experiments in primates, alongside neuropsychological and functional magnetic resonance investigations in humans, have significantly enhanced our understanding of the neural architecture of decision making. In this review, I consider the more limited database of experiments that have investigated how dopamine and serotonin activity influences the choices of human adults. These include those experiments that have involved the administration of drugs to healthy controls, experiments that have tested genotypic influences upon dopamine and serotonin function, and, finally, some of those experiments that have examined the effects of drugs on the decision making of clinical samples. Pharmacological experiments in humans are few in number and face considerable methodological challenges in terms of drug specificity, uncertainties about pre- vs post-synaptic modes of action, and interactions with baseline cognitive performance. However, the available data are broadly consistent with current computational models of dopamine function in decision making and highlight the dissociable roles of dopamine receptor systems in the learning about outcomes that underpins value-based decision making. Moreover, genotypic influences on (interacting) prefrontal and striatal dopamine activity are associated with changes in choice behavior that might be relevant to understanding exploratory behaviors and vulnerability to addictive disorders. Manipulations of serotonin in laboratory tests of decision making in human participants have provided less consistent results, but the information gathered to date indicates a role for serotonin in learning about bad decision outcomes, non-normative aspects of risk-seeking behavior, and social choices involving affiliation and notions of fairness. Finally, I suggest that the role played by serotonin in the regulation of cognitive biases, and representation of context in learning, point toward a role in the cortically mediated cognitive

  15. Contingency Management and deliberative decision-making processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul S. Regier

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Contingency Management is an effective treatment for drug addiction. The current explanation for its success is rooted in alternative reinforcement theory. We suggest that alternative reinforcement theory is inadequate to explain the success of Contingency Management and produce a model based on demand curves that show how little the monetary rewards offered in this treatment would affect drug use. Instead, we offer an explanation of its success based on the concept that it accesses deliberative decision-making processes. We suggest that Contingency Management is effective because it offers a concrete and immediate alternative to using drugs, which engages deliberative processes, improves the ability of those deliberative processes to attend to non-drug options, and offsets more automatic action-selection systems. This theory makes explicit predictions that can be tested, suggests which users will be most helped by Contingency Management, and suggests improvements in its implementation.

  16. Contingency Management and Deliberative Decision-Making Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regier, Paul S; Redish, A David

    2015-01-01

    Contingency management is an effective treatment for drug addiction. The current explanation for its success is rooted in alternative reinforcement theory. We suggest that alternative reinforcement theory is inadequate to explain the success of contingency management and produce a model based on demand curves that show how little the monetary rewards offered in this treatment would affect drug use. Instead, we offer an explanation of its success based on the concept that it accesses deliberative decision-making processes. We suggest that contingency management is effective because it offers a concrete and immediate alternative to using drugs, which engages deliberative processes, improves the ability of those deliberative processes to attend to non-drug options, and offsets more automatic action-selection systems. This theory makes explicit predictions that can be tested, suggests which users will be most helped by contingency management, and suggests improvements in its implementation.

  17. The First Flight Decision for New Human Spacecraft Vehicles - A General Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaible, Dawn M.; Sumrall, John Phillip

    2011-01-01

    Determining when it is safe to fly a crew on a launch vehicle/spacecraft for the first time, especially when the test flight is a part of the overall system certification process, has long been a challenge for program decision makers. The decision on first flight is ultimately the judgment of the program and agency management in conjunction with the design and operations team. To aid in this decision process, a NASA team undertook the task to develop a generic framework for evaluating whether any given program or commercial provider has sufficiently complete and balanced plans in place to allow crewmembers to safely fly on human spaceflight systems for the first time. It was the team s goal to establish a generic framework that could easily be applied to any new system, although the system design and intended mission would require specific assessment. Historical data shows that there are multiple approaches that have been successful in first flight with crew. These approaches have always been tailored to the specific system design, mission objectives, and launch environment. Because specific approaches may vary significantly between different system designs and situations, prescriptive instructions or thorough checklists cannot be provided ahead of time. There are, however, certain general approaches that should be applied in thinking through the decision for first flight. This paper addresses some of the most important factors to consider when developing a new system or evaluating an existing system for whether or not it is safe to fly humans to/from space. In the simplest terms, it is time to fly crew for the first time when it is safe to do so and the benefit of the crewed flight is greater than the residual risk. This is rarely a straight-forward decision. The paper describes the need for experience, sound judgment, close involvement of the technical and management teams, and established decision processes. In addition, the underlying level of confidence the

  18. Decision making under explicit risk is impaired in individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiwara, Esther; Tomlinson, Sara E; Purdon, Scot E; Gill, M John; Power, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can affect the frontal-striatal brain regions, which are known to subserve decision-making functions. Previous studies have reported impaired decision making among HIV+ individuals using the Iowa Gambling Task, a task that assesses decision making under ambiguity. Previous study populations often had significant comorbidities such as past or present substance use disorders and/or hepatitis C virus coinfection, complicating conclusions about the unique contributions of HIV-infection to decision making. Decision making under explicit risk has very rarely been examined in HIV+ individuals and was tested here using the Game of Dice Task (GDT). We examined decision making under explicit risk in the GDT in 20 HIV+ individuals without substance use disorder or HCV coinfection, including a demographically matched healthy control group (n = 20). Groups were characterized on a standard neuropsychological test battery. For the HIV+ group, several disease-related parameters (viral load, current and nadir CD4 T-cell count) were included. Analyses focused on the GDT and spanned between-group (t-tests; analysis of covariance, ANCOVA) as well as within-group comparisons (Pearson/Spearman correlations). HIV+ individuals were impaired in the GDT, compared to healthy controls (p = .02). Their decision-making impairments were characterized by less advantageous choices and more random choice strategies, especially towards the end of the task. Deficits in the GDT in the HIV+ group were related to executive dysfunctions, slowed processing/motor speed, and current immune system status (CD4+ T-cell levels, ps Decision making under explicit risk in the GDT can occur in HIV-infected individuals without comorbidities. The correlational patterns may point to underlying fronto-subcortical dysfunctions in HIV+ individuals. The GDT provides a useful measure to assess risky decision making in this population and should be tested in larger studies.

  19. The Role of Intuition in Risk/Benefit Decision-Making in Human Subjects Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, David B

    2017-01-01

    One of the key principles of ethical research involving human subjects is that the risks of research to should be acceptable in relation to expected benefits. Institutional review board (IRB) members often rely on intuition to make risk/benefit decisions concerning proposed human studies. Some have objected to using intuition to make these decisions because intuition is unreliable and biased and lacks transparency. In this article, I examine the role of intuition in IRB risk/benefit decision-making and argue that there are practical and philosophical limits to our ability to reduce our reliance on intuition in this process. The fact that IRB risk/benefit decision-making involves intuition need not imply that it is hopelessly subjective or biased, however, since there are strategies that IRBs can employ to improve their decisions, such as using empirical data to estimate the probability of potential harms and benefits, developing classification systems to guide the evaluation of harms and benefits, and engaging in moral reasoning concerning the acceptability of risks.

  20. Communicating climate information: travelling through the decision-making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoverinck, F.; Dubois, G.; Amelung, B.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best available climate information. Climate projections, however, often inform adaptation strategies after being interpreted once or several times. This process affects the original message put forward by climate scientists when presenting the basic climate projections, in particular regarding uncertainties. The nature of this effect and its implications for decision-making are as yet poorly understood. This paper explores the nature and consequences of a) the communication tools used by scientists and experts, and b)changes in the communicated information as it travels through the decision-making process. It does so by analysing the interpretative steps taken in a sample of 25 documents, pertaining to the field of public policies for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies. Five phases in the provisioning of climate information are distinguished: pre-existing knowledge (i.e. climate models and data), climate- change projection, impact assessment, adaptation strategy, and adaptation plan. Between the phases, climate information is summarized and synthesised in order to be passed on. The results show that in the sample information on uncertainty is under-represented: e.g. studies focus on only one scenario, and/or disregard probability distributions. In addition, visualization tools are often used ineffectively, leading to confusion and unintended interpretations. Several recommendations are presented. A better training of climatologists to communication issues, but also a training to climatology for decision makers are required, as well as more cautious and robust adaptation strategies, accounting for the uncertainty inherent to climate projections. (authors)

  1. How awareness changes the relative weights of evidence during human decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lange, Floris P; van Gaal, Simon; Lamme, Victor A F; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2011-11-01

    Human decisions are based on accumulating evidence over time for different options. Here we ask a simple question: How is the accumulation of evidence affected by the level of awareness of the information? We examined the influence of awareness on decision-making using combined behavioral methods and magneto-encephalography (MEG). Participants were required to make decisions by accumulating evidence over a series of visually presented arrow stimuli whose visibility was modulated by masking. Behavioral results showed that participants could accumulate evidence under both high and low visibility. However, a top-down strategic modulation of the flow of incoming evidence was only present for stimuli with high visibility: once enough evidence had been accrued, participants strategically reduced the impact of new incoming stimuli. Also, decision-making speed and confidence were strongly modulated by the strength of the evidence for high-visible but not low-visible evidence, even though direct priming effects were identical for both types of stimuli. Neural recordings revealed that, while initial perceptual processing was independent of visibility, there was stronger top-down amplification for stimuli with high visibility than low visibility. Furthermore, neural markers of evidence accumulation over occipito-parietal cortex showed a strategic bias only for highly visible sensory information, speeding up processing and reducing neural computations related to the decision process. Our results indicate that the level of awareness of information changes decision-making: while accumulation of evidence already exists under low visibility conditions, high visibility allows evidence to be accumulated up to a higher level, leading to important strategical top-down changes in decision-making. Our results therefore suggest a potential role of awareness in deploying flexible strategies for biasing information acquisition in line with one's expectations and goals.

  2. How awareness changes the relative weights of evidence during human decision-making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Floris P de Lange

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Human decisions are based on accumulating evidence over time for different options. Here we ask a simple question: How is the accumulation of evidence affected by the level of awareness of the information? We examined the influence of awareness on decision-making using combined behavioral methods and magneto-encephalography (MEG. Participants were required to make decisions by accumulating evidence over a series of visually presented arrow stimuli whose visibility was modulated by masking. Behavioral results showed that participants could accumulate evidence under both high and low visibility. However, a top-down strategic modulation of the flow of incoming evidence was only present for stimuli with high visibility: once enough evidence had been accrued, participants strategically reduced the impact of new incoming stimuli. Also, decision-making speed and confidence were strongly modulated by the strength of the evidence for high-visible but not low-visible evidence, even though direct priming effects were identical for both types of stimuli. Neural recordings revealed that, while initial perceptual processing was independent of visibility, there was stronger top-down amplification for stimuli with high visibility than low visibility. Furthermore, neural markers of evidence accumulation over occipito-parietal cortex showed a strategic bias only for highly visible sensory information, speeding up processing and reducing neural computations related to the decision process. Our results indicate that the level of awareness of information changes decision-making: while accumulation of evidence already exists under low visibility conditions, high visibility allows evidence to be accumulated up to a higher level, leading to important strategical top-down changes in decision-making. Our results therefore suggest a potential role of awareness in deploying flexible strategies for biasing information acquisition in line with one's expectations and goals.

  3. Decision Analysis Methods Used to Make Appropriate Investments in Human Exploration Capabilities and Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Byrd, Julie; Arney, Dale C.; Hay, Jason; Reeves, John D.; Craig, Douglas

    2016-01-01

    NASA is transforming human spaceflight. The Agency is shifting from an exploration-based program with human activities in low Earth orbit (LEO) and targeted robotic missions in deep space to a more sustainable and integrated pioneering approach. Through pioneering, NASA seeks to address national goals to develop the capacity for people to work, learn, operate, live, and thrive safely beyond Earth for extended periods of time. However, pioneering space involves daunting technical challenges of transportation, maintaining health, and enabling crew productivity for long durations in remote, hostile, and alien environments. Prudent investments in capability and technology developments, based on mission need, are critical for enabling a campaign of human exploration missions. There are a wide variety of capabilities and technologies that could enable these missions, so it is a major challenge for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to make knowledgeable portfolio decisions. It is critical for this pioneering initiative that these investment decisions are informed with a prioritization process that is robust and defensible. It is NASA's role to invest in targeted technologies and capabilities that would enable exploration missions even though specific requirements have not been identified. To inform these investments decisions, NASA's HEOMD has supported a variety of analysis activities that prioritize capabilities and technologies. These activities are often based on input from subject matter experts within the NASA community who understand the technical challenges of enabling human exploration missions. This paper will review a variety of processes and methods that NASA has used to prioritize and rank capabilities and technologies applicable to human space exploration. The paper will show the similarities in the various processes and showcase instances were customer specified priorities force modifications to the process. Specifically

  4. The Human Factor: Behavioral and Neural Correlates of Humanized Perception in Moral Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Majdandžić, Jasminka; Bauer, Herbert; Windischberger, Christian; Moser, Ewald; Engl, Elisabeth; Lamm, Claus

    2012-01-01

    The extent to which people regard others as full-blown individuals with mental states ("humanization") seems crucial for their prosocial motivation towards them. Previous research has shown that decisions about moral dilemmas in which one person can be sacrificed to save multiple others do not consistently follow utilitarian principles. We hypothesized that this behavior can be explained by the potential victim's perceived humanness and an ensuing increase in vicarious emotions and emotional ...

  5. Artificial intelligence framework for simulating clinical decision-making: a Markov decision process approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Casey C; Hauser, Kris

    2013-01-01

    In the modern healthcare system, rapidly expanding costs/complexity, the growing myriad of treatment options, and exploding information streams that often do not effectively reach the front lines hinder the ability to choose optimal treatment decisions over time. The goal in this paper is to develop a general purpose (non-disease-specific) computational/artificial intelligence (AI) framework to address these challenges. This framework serves two potential functions: (1) a simulation environment for exploring various healthcare policies, payment methodologies, etc., and (2) the basis for clinical artificial intelligence - an AI that can "think like a doctor". This approach combines Markov decision processes and dynamic decision networks to learn from clinical data and develop complex plans via simulation of alternative sequential decision paths while capturing the sometimes conflicting, sometimes synergistic interactions of various components in the healthcare system. It can operate in partially observable environments (in the case of missing observations or data) by maintaining belief states about patient health status and functions as an online agent that plans and re-plans as actions are performed and new observations are obtained. This framework was evaluated using real patient data from an electronic health record. The results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach; such an AI framework easily outperforms the current treatment-as-usual (TAU) case-rate/fee-for-service models of healthcare. The cost per unit of outcome change (CPUC) was $189 vs. $497 for AI vs. TAU (where lower is considered optimal) - while at the same time the AI approach could obtain a 30-35% increase in patient outcomes. Tweaking certain AI model parameters could further enhance this advantage, obtaining approximately 50% more improvement (outcome change) for roughly half the costs. Given careful design and problem formulation, an AI simulation framework can approximate optimal

  6. Public involvement in decision making process in nuclear field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Constantin, M.; Diaconu, D.

    2009-01-01

    Decision Making Process (DMP) in nuclear field is influenced by multiple factors such as: complex technical aspects, diversity of stakeholders, long term risks, psychological stresses, societal attitudes, etc. General public is sometimes considered as the only one of stakeholders, the involvement of the public being seen as a factor to obtain the acceptance in the late phase of DMP. Generally it is assessed by public consultation on the environment impact studies and by approval of the sitting through the local authorities decision. Modern society uses methods to involve public from the beginning of DMP. The paper shows a general view of the methods and tools used in Europe for public involvement in DMP. The process of construction of a continuous democratic dialog inside of Romanian Stakeholder Group (RSG) in the frame of the FP6-COWAM2 and CIP projects is presented with a focusing of the barriers and factors of disturbing the trust and collaboration between stakeholders. The influence on the public acceptance is also discussed. (authors)

  7. Stakeholder participation in radiological decision making: processes and implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Within the radiological protection community, stakeholder issues have moved steadily to the fore-front of policy discussions, and clearly form a key element in decisions regarding the development and implementation of radiological protection policy. It was in this light that the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) undertook three case studies on stakeholder involvement processes and experiences. Experience and lessons were analysed and extracted that may have application to numerous situations in other national contexts. They are intended to aid decision makers and regulators who are involved in radiological protection, and may have particular value for post-accident contamination situations, the siting of new nuclear installations, the management of emissions from routine operations at nuclear facilities, and the decommissioning of existing nuclear installations. The three case studies presented in this report were specifically developed as input to the Third Villigen Workshop (Villigen, Switzerland, 21-23 October 2003) and address the following situations: - the Canadian review process for uranium production projects in Northern Saskatchewan; - the Rocky Flats controversy on radionuclide action levels; - the ETHOS project for post-accident rehabilitation in the area of Belarus contaminated by the Chernobyl disaster. (author)

  8. Process modeling for Humanities: tracing and analyzing scientific processes

    OpenAIRE

    Hug , Charlotte; Salinesi , Camille; Deneckere , Rebecca; Lamasse , Stéphane

    2011-01-01

    International audience; This paper concerns epistemology and the understanding of research processes in Humanities, such as Archaeology. We believe that to properly understand research processes, it is essential to trace them. The collected traces depend on the process model established, which has to be as accurate as possible to exhaustively record the traces. In this paper, we briefly explain why the existing process models for Humanities are not sufficient to represent traces. We then pres...

  9. Pavement maintenance optimization model using Markov Decision Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandiartha, P.; Duffield, C. F.; Razelan, I. S. b. M.; Ismail, A. b. H.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents an optimization model for selection of pavement maintenance intervention using a theory of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). There are some particular characteristics of the MDP developed in this paper which distinguish it from other similar studies or optimization models intended for pavement maintenance policy development. These unique characteristics include a direct inclusion of constraints into the formulation of MDP, the use of an average cost method of MDP, and the policy development process based on the dual linear programming solution. The limited information or discussions that are available on these matters in terms of stochastic based optimization model in road network management motivates this study. This paper uses a data set acquired from road authorities of state of Victoria, Australia, to test the model and recommends steps in the computation of MDP based stochastic optimization model, leading to the development of optimum pavement maintenance policy.

  10. Stakeholder participation in radiological decision making: processes and implication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Since 1998, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency has been organizing a series of workshops to address the various aspects of stakeholder involvement in radiological protection decision making. These workshops have been instrumental in forging consensus and improving understanding of key issues in this area. Building on the experience of the first two 'Villigen workshops', the third in the series extensively analysed three case studies, which covered the licensing of a new facility, the clean-up and release of an old facility, and the rehabilitation of a large, contaminated area. Consideration was given to the stakeholder involvement processes that had been used, and the implications that these did or could have on radiological protection policy, regulation and application. The workshop papers analysing these processes and implications are presented in these proceedings, which should provide valuable examples and lessons for governments, regulators and practitioners. (author)

  11. High-frequency oscillations in distributed neural networks reveal the dynamics of human decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian G Guggisberg

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available We examine the relative timing of numerous brain regions involved in human decisions that are based on external criteria, learned information, personal preferences, or unconstrained internal considerations. Using magnetoencephalography (MEG and advanced signal analysis techniques, we were able to non-invasively reconstruct oscillations of distributed neural networks in the high-gamma frequency band (60–150 Hz. The time course of the observed neural activity suggested that two-alternative forced choice tasks are processed in four overlapping stages: processing of sensory input, option evaluation, intention formation, and action execution. Visual areas are activated fi rst, and show recurring activations throughout the entire decision process. The temporo-occipital junction and the intraparietal sulcus are active during evaluation of external values of the options, 250–500 ms after stimulus presentation. Simultaneously, personal preference is mediated by cortical midline structures. Subsequently, the posterior parietal and superior occipital cortices appear to encode intention, with different subregions being responsible for different types of choice. The cerebellum and inferior parietal cortex are recruited for internal generation of decisions and actions, when all options have the same value. Action execution was accompanied by activation peaks in the contralateral motor cortex. These results suggest that high-gamma oscillations as recorded by MEG allow a reliable reconstruction of decision processes with excellent spatiotemporal resolution.

  12. Temporal characteristics of the influence of punishment on perceptual decision making in the human brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blank, Helen; Biele, Guido; Heekeren, Hauke R; Philiastides, Marios G

    2013-02-27

    Perceptual decision making is the process by which information from sensory systems is combined and used to influence our behavior. In addition to the sensory input, this process can be affected by other factors, such as reward and punishment for correct and incorrect responses. To investigate the temporal dynamics of how monetary punishment influences perceptual decision making in humans, we collected electroencephalography (EEG) data during a perceptual categorization task whereby the punishment level for incorrect responses was parametrically manipulated across blocks of trials. Behaviorally, we observed improved accuracy for high relative to low punishment levels. Using multivariate linear discriminant analysis of the EEG, we identified multiple punishment-induced discriminating components with spatially distinct scalp topographies. Compared with components related to sensory evidence, components discriminating punishment levels appeared later in the trial, suggesting that punishment affects primarily late postsensory, decision-related processing. Crucially, the amplitude of these punishment components across participants was predictive of the size of the behavioral improvements induced by punishment. Finally, trial-by-trial changes in prestimulus oscillatory activity in the alpha and gamma bands were good predictors of the amplitude of these components. We discuss these findings in the context of increased motivation/attention, resulting from increases in punishment, which in turn yields improved decision-related processing.

  13. Information Technology Process Improvement Decision-Making: An Exploratory Study from the Perspective of Process Owners and Process Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamp, Sandra A.

    2012-01-01

    There is information available in the literature that discusses information technology (IT) governance and investment decision making from an executive-level perception, yet there is little information available that offers the perspective of process owners and process managers pertaining to their role in IT process improvement and investment…

  14. THE CONTRIBUTION OF PHILOSOPHY AND PSYCHOLOGY IN THE ETHICAL DECISION MAKING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANIELA LIVIA DOLTU

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to explore the relationship between morality and organizational culture with reference to the process of ethical decision making and to the cooperation between philosopher and psychologist for the improvement of ethical climate within a public institution. Firstly, we introduce the notion of organizational culture emphasizing the importance of moral values and their role in building a true ethical climate. Secondly, we focus on the study of ethical decision making. The process is examined from the perspective of the interaction between human personality and different elements of organizational culture. Philosophy and psychology differently approach this problem. Our intention is to bridge the gap between the two perspectives, by demonstrating their belonging to the same continuum as well as the need for knowledge from both fields in order to have a complete overview of its internal mechanisms. Deontological and utilitarian theories fail to explain by themselves the decision making process and so psychology does: moral development theories, the leadership type, and emotions have on their basis a personal moral philosophy. We will also consider the influence of social groups on individual decision making.

  15. Expectations Do Not Alter Early Sensory Processing during Perceptual Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rungratsameetaweemana, Nuttida; Itthipuripat, Sirawaj; Salazar, Annalisa; Serences, John T

    2018-06-13

    Two factors play important roles in shaping perception: the allocation of selective attention to behaviorally relevant sensory features, and prior expectations about regularities in the environment. Signal detection theory proposes distinct roles of attention and expectation on decision-making such that attention modulates early sensory processing, whereas expectation influences the selection and execution of motor responses. Challenging this classic framework, recent studies suggest that expectations about sensory regularities enhance the encoding and accumulation of sensory evidence during decision-making. However, it is possible, that these findings reflect well documented attentional modulations in visual cortex. Here, we tested this framework in a group of male and female human participants by examining how expectations about stimulus features (orientation and color) and expectations about motor responses impacted electroencephalography (EEG) markers of early sensory processing and the accumulation of sensory evidence during decision-making (the early visual negative potential and the centro-parietal positive potential, respectively). We first demonstrate that these markers are sensitive to changes in the amount of sensory evidence in the display. Then we show, counter to recent findings, that neither marker is modulated by either feature or motor expectations, despite a robust effect of expectations on behavior. Instead, violating expectations about likely sensory features and motor responses impacts posterior alpha and frontal theta oscillations, signals thought to index overall processing time and cognitive conflict. These findings are inconsistent with recent theoretical accounts and suggest instead that expectations primarily influence decisions by modulating post-perceptual stages of information processing. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Expectations about likely features or motor responses play an important role in shaping behavior. Classic theoretical

  16. Information Processing and Human Abilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, John R.; Das, J. P.

    1978-01-01

    The simultaneous and successive processing model of cognitive abilities was compared to a traditional primary mental abilities model. Simultaneous processing was found to be primarily related to spatial ability; and to a lesser extent, to memory and inductive reasoning. Subjects were 104 fourth-grade urban males. (Author/GD C)

  17. Development of an instrument to understand the child protective services decision-making process, with a focus on placement decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettlaff, Alan J; Christopher Graham, J; Holzman, Jesse; Baumann, Donald J; Fluke, John D

    2015-11-01

    When children come to the attention of the child welfare system, they become involved in a decision-making process in which decisions are made that have a significant effect on their future and well-being. The decision to remove children from their families is particularly complex; yet surprisingly little is understood about this decision-making process. This paper presents the results of a study to develop an instrument to explore, at the caseworker level, the context of the removal decision, with the objective of understanding the influence of the individual and organizational factors on this decision, drawing from the Decision Making Ecology as the underlying rationale for obtaining the measures. The instrument was based on the development of decision-making scales used in prior decision-making studies and administered to child protection caseworkers in several states. Analyses included reliability analyses, principal components analyses, and inter-correlations among the resulting scales. For one scale regarding removal decisions, a principal components analysis resulted in the extraction of two components, jointly identified as caseworkers' decision-making orientation, described as (1) an internal reference to decision-making and (2) an external reference to decision-making. Reliability analyses demonstrated acceptable to high internal consistency for 9 of the 11 scales. Full details of the reliability analyses, principal components analyses, and inter-correlations among the seven scales are discussed, along with implications for practice and the utility of this instrument to support the understanding of decision-making in child welfare. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Designing Human-Centered Systems for Reflective Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pommeranz, A.

    2012-01-01

    Taking major life decisions, e.g. what career to follow, is difficult and sometimes emotional. One has to find out what exactly one wants, consider the long-term consequences of the decisions and be empathetic for loved ones affected by the decisions. Decision making also deals with establishing and

  19. Integrating human factors into process hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kariuki, S.G.; Loewe, K.

    2007-01-01

    A comprehensive process hazard analysis (PHA) needs to address human factors. This paper describes an approach that systematically identifies human error in process design and the human factors that influence its production and propagation. It is deductive in nature and therefore considers human error as a top event. The combinations of different factors that may lead to this top event are analysed. It is qualitative in nature and is used in combination with other PHA methods. The method has an advantage because it does not look at the operator error as the sole contributor to the human failure within a system but a combination of all underlying factors

  20. Qualitative modeling of the decision-making process using electrooculography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zargari Marandi, Ramtin; Sabzpoushan, S H

    2015-12-01

    A novel method based on electrooculography (EOG) has been introduced in this work to study the decision-making process. An experiment was designed and implemented wherein subjects were asked to choose between two items from the same category that were presented within a limited time. The EOG and voice signals of the subjects were recorded during the experiment. A calibration task was performed to map the EOG signals to their corresponding gaze positions on the screen by using an artificial neural network. To analyze the data, 16 parameters were extracted from the response time and EOG signals of the subjects. Evaluation and comparison of the parameters, together with subjects' choices, revealed functional information. On the basis of this information, subjects switched their eye gazes between items about three times on average. We also found, according to statistical hypothesis testing-that is, a t test, t(10) = 71.62, SE = 1.25, p < .0001-that the correspondence rate of a subjects' gaze at the moment of selection with the selected item was significant. Ultimately, on the basis of these results, we propose a qualitative choice model for the decision-making task.

  1. International Patients' Travel Decision Making Process- A Conceptual Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Mohammad Jamal; Chelliah, Shankar; Haron, Mahmod Sabri

    2016-02-01

    Role of information source, perceived benefits and risks, and destination image has significantly been examined in travel and tourism literature; however, in medical tourism it is yet to be examined thoroughly. The concept discussed in this article is drawn form well established models in tourism literature. The purpose of this research was to identify the source of information, travel benefits and perceived risks related to movement of international patients and develop a conceptual model based on well-established theory. Thorough database search (Science Direct, utmj.org, nih.gov, nchu.edu.tw, palgrave-journals, medretreat, Biomedcentral) was performed to fulfill the objectives of the study. International patients always concern about benefits and risks related to travel. These benefits and risks form images of destination in the minds of international patients. Different sources of information make international patients acquaint about the associated benefits and risks, which later leads to development of intention to visit. This conceptual paper helps in establishing model for decision-making process of international patients in developing visit intention. Ample amount of literature is available detailing different factors involved in travel decision making of international patients; however literature explaining relationship between these factors is scarce.

  2. International Patients’ Travel Decision Making Process- A Conceptual Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    KHAN, Mohammad Jamal; CHELLIAH, Shankar; HARON, Mahmod Sabri

    2016-01-01

    Background: Role of information source, perceived benefits and risks, and destination image has significantly been examined in travel and tourism literature; however, in medical tourism it is yet to be examined thoroughly. The concept discussed in this article is drawn form well established models in tourism literature. Methods: The purpose of this research was to identify the source of information, travel benefits and perceived risks related to movement of international patients and develop a conceptual model based on well-established theory. Thorough database search (Science Direct, utmj.org, nih.gov, nchu.edu.tw, palgrave-journals, medretreat, Biomedcentral) was performed to fulfill the objectives of the study. Results: International patients always concern about benefits and risks related to travel. These benefits and risks form images of destination in the minds of international patients. Different sources of information make international patients acquaint about the associated benefits and risks, which later leads to development of intention to visit. This conceptual paper helps in establishing model for decision-making process of international patients in developing visit intention. Conclusion: Ample amount of literature is available detailing different factors involved in travel decision making of international patients; however literature explaining relationship between these factors is scarce. PMID:27114978

  3. Decision Support System for Determining Scholarship Selection using an Analytical Hierarchy Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puspitasari, T. D.; Sari, E. O.; Destarianto, P.; Riskiawan, H. Y.

    2018-01-01

    Decision Support System is a computer program application that analyzes data and presents it so that users can make decision more easily. Determining Scholarship Selection study case in Senior High School in east Java wasn’t easy. It needed application to solve the problem, to improve the accuracy of targets for prospective beneficiaries of poor students and to speed up the screening process. This research will build system uses the method of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a method that solves a complex and unstructured problem into its group, organizes the groups into a hierarchical order, inputs numerical values instead of human perception in comparing relative and ultimately with a synthesis determined elements that have the highest priority. The accuracy system for this research is 90%.

  4. A conceptual and computational model of moral decision making in human and artificial agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallach, Wendell; Franklin, Stan; Allen, Colin

    2010-07-01

    Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in general, comprehensive models of human cognition. Such models aim to explain higher-order cognitive faculties, such as deliberation and planning. Given a computational representation, the validity of these models can be tested in computer simulations such as software agents or embodied robots. The push to implement computational models of this kind has created the field of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Moral decision making is arguably one of the most challenging tasks for computational approaches to higher-order cognition. The need for increasingly autonomous artificial agents to factor moral considerations into their choices and actions has given rise to another new field of inquiry variously known as Machine Morality, Machine Ethics, Roboethics, or Friendly AI. In this study, we discuss how LIDA, an AGI model of human cognition, can be adapted to model both affective and rational features of moral decision making. Using the LIDA model, we will demonstrate how moral decisions can be made in many domains using the same mechanisms that enable general decision making. Comprehensive models of human cognition typically aim for compatibility with recent research in the cognitive and neural sciences. Global workspace theory, proposed by the neuropsychologist Bernard Baars (1988), is a highly regarded model of human cognition that is currently being computationally instantiated in several software implementations. LIDA (Franklin, Baars, Ramamurthy, & Ventura, 2005) is one such computational implementation. LIDA is both a set of computational tools and an underlying model of human cognition, which provides mechanisms that are capable of explaining how an agent's selection of its next action arises from bottom-up collection of sensory data and top-down processes for making sense of its current situation. We will describe how the LIDA model helps integrate emotions into the human decision-making process, and we

  5. A cortical network model of cognitive and emotional influences in human decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazir, Azadeh Hassannejad; Liljenström, Hans

    2015-10-01

    Decision making (DM)(2) is a complex process that appears to involve several brain structures. In particular, amygdala, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) seem to be essential in human decision making, where both emotional and cognitive aspects are taken into account. In this paper, we present a computational network model representing the neural information processing of DM, from perception to behavior. We model the population dynamics of the three neural structures (amygdala, OFC and LPFC), as well as their interaction. In our model, the neurodynamic activity of amygdala and OFC represents the neural correlates of secondary emotion, while the activity of certain neural populations in OFC alone represents the outcome expectancy of different options. The cognitive/rational aspect of DM is associated with LPFC. Our model is intended to give insights on the emotional and cognitive processes involved in DM under various internal and external contexts. Different options for actions are represented by the oscillatory activity of cell assemblies, which may change due to experience and learning. Knowledge and experience of the outcome of our decisions and actions can eventually result in changes in our neural structures, attitudes and behaviors. Simulation results may have implications for how we make decisions for our individual actions, as well as for societal choices, where we take examples from transport and its impact on CO2 emissions and climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Control Design for Untimed Petri Nets Using Markov Decision Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cherki Daoui

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Design of control sequences for discrete event systems (DESs has been presented modelled by untimed Petri nets (PNs. PNs are well-known mathematical and graphical models that are widely used to describe distributed DESs, including choices, synchronizations and parallelisms. The domains of application include, but are not restricted to, manufacturing systems, computer science and transportation networks. We are motivated by the observation that such systems need to plan their production or services. The paper is more particularly concerned with control issues in uncertain environments when unexpected events occur or when control errors disturb the behaviour of the system. To deal with such uncertainties, a new approach based on discrete time Markov decision processes (MDPs has been proposed that associates the modelling power of PNs with the planning power of MDPs. Finally, the simulation results illustrate the benefit of our method from the computational point of view. (original abstract

  7. Accelerated decomposition techniques for large discounted Markov decision processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larach, Abdelhadi; Chafik, S.; Daoui, C.

    2017-12-01

    Many hierarchical techniques to solve large Markov decision processes (MDPs) are based on the partition of the state space into strongly connected components (SCCs) that can be classified into some levels. In each level, smaller problems named restricted MDPs are solved, and then these partial solutions are combined to obtain the global solution. In this paper, we first propose a novel algorithm, which is a variant of Tarjan's algorithm that simultaneously finds the SCCs and their belonging levels. Second, a new definition of the restricted MDPs is presented to ameliorate some hierarchical solutions in discounted MDPs using value iteration (VI) algorithm based on a list of state-action successors. Finally, a robotic motion-planning example and the experiment results are presented to illustrate the benefit of the proposed decomposition algorithms.

  8. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  9. Discovering Decision Knowledge from Web Log Portfolio for Managing Classroom Processes by Applying Decision Tree and Data Cube Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Gwo-Dong; Liu, Chen-Chung; Ou, Kuo-Liang; Liu, Baw-Jhiune

    2000-01-01

    Discusses the use of Web logs to record student behavior that can assist teachers in assessing performance and making curriculum decisions for distance learning students who are using Web-based learning systems. Adopts decision tree and data cube information processing methodologies for developing more effective pedagogical strategies. (LRW)

  10. Credible decision-making regarding the management of spent nuclear fuel -four key questions concerning the decision-making process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaaberger, T. [Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (Sweden)

    1995-12-01

    The author starts by questioning the need for an EIA, since he sees a common attitude that the EIA is a tool for getting the community to accept the implementation of decisions that have already been made, and not a rational, organized way of achieving a basis for decision-making. A question of decisive importance for the relevancy of an EIA is whether (or not) the decisions already have been made, and the author points at indications which he believes support this view. Finally, arguments for delegating the EIA process to an external body are given.

  11. Credible decision-making regarding the management of spent nuclear fuel -four key questions concerning the decision-making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaaberger, T.

    1995-01-01

    The author starts by questioning the need for an EIA, since he sees a common attitude that the EIA is a tool for getting the community to accept the implementation of decisions that have already been made, and not a rational, organized way of achieving a basis for decision-making. A question of decisive importance for the relevancy of an EIA is whether (or not) the decisions already have been made, and the author points at indications which he believes support this view. Finally, arguments for delegating the EIA process to an external body are given

  12. Diffusion Modelling Reveals the Decision Making Processes Underlying Negative Judgement Bias in Rats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire A Hales

    Full Text Available Human decision making is modified by emotional state. Rodents exhibit similar biases during interpretation of ambiguous cues that can be altered by affective state manipulations. In this study, the impact of negative affective state on judgement bias in rats was measured using an ambiguous-cue interpretation task. Acute treatment with an anxiogenic drug (FG7142, and chronic restraint stress and social isolation both induced a bias towards more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue. The diffusion model was fit to behavioural data to allow further analysis of the underlying decision making processes. To uncover the way in which parameters vary together in relation to affective state manipulations, independent component analysis was conducted on rate of information accumulation and distances to decision threshold parameters for control data. Results from this analysis were applied to parameters from negative affective state manipulations. These projected components were compared to control components to reveal the changes in decision making processes that are due to affective state manipulations. Negative affective bias in rodents induced by either FG7142 or chronic stress is due to a combination of more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue, reduced anticipation of the high reward and increased anticipation of the low reward.

  13. Diffusion Modelling Reveals the Decision Making Processes Underlying Negative Judgement Bias in Rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hales, Claire A; Robinson, Emma S J; Houghton, Conor J

    2016-01-01

    Human decision making is modified by emotional state. Rodents exhibit similar biases during interpretation of ambiguous cues that can be altered by affective state manipulations. In this study, the impact of negative affective state on judgement bias in rats was measured using an ambiguous-cue interpretation task. Acute treatment with an anxiogenic drug (FG7142), and chronic restraint stress and social isolation both induced a bias towards more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue. The diffusion model was fit to behavioural data to allow further analysis of the underlying decision making processes. To uncover the way in which parameters vary together in relation to affective state manipulations, independent component analysis was conducted on rate of information accumulation and distances to decision threshold parameters for control data. Results from this analysis were applied to parameters from negative affective state manipulations. These projected components were compared to control components to reveal the changes in decision making processes that are due to affective state manipulations. Negative affective bias in rodents induced by either FG7142 or chronic stress is due to a combination of more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue, reduced anticipation of the high reward and increased anticipation of the low reward.

  14. Selective exposure to information: how different modes of decision making affect subsequent confirmatory information processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Peter; Fischer, Julia; Weisweiler, Silke; Frey, Dieter

    2010-12-01

    We investigated whether different modes of decision making (deliberate, intuitive, distracted) affect subsequent confirmatory processing of decision-consistent and inconsistent information. Participants showed higher levels of confirmatory information processing when they made a deliberate or an intuitive decision versus a decision under distraction (Studies 1 and 2). As soon as participants have a cognitive (i.e., deliberate cognitive analysis) or affective (i.e., intuitive and gut feeling) reason for their decision, the subjective confidence in the validity of their decision increases, which results in increased levels of confirmatory information processing (Study 2). In contrast, when participants are distracted during decision making, they are less certain about the validity of their decision and thus are subsequently more balanced in the processing of decision-relevant information.

  15. Envisioning a Future Decision Support System for Requirements Engineering : A Holistic and Human-centred Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Alenljung, Beatrice

    2008-01-01

    Complex decision-making is a prominent aspect of requirements engineering (RE) and the need for improved decision support for RE decision-makers has been identified by a number of authors in the research literature. The fundamental viewpoint that permeates this thesis is that RE decision-making can be substantially improved by RE decision support systems (REDSS) based on the actual needs of RE decision-makers as well as the actual generic human decision-making activities that take place in th...

  16. Parent-son decision-making about human papillomavirus vaccination: a qualitative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Andreia B

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Licensed for use in males in 2009, Human Papillomavirus (HPV vaccination rates in adolescent males are extremely low. Literature on HPV vaccination focuses on females, adult males, or parents of adolescent males, without including adolescent males or the dynamics of the parent-son interaction that may influence vaccine decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to examine the decision-making process of parent-son dyads when deciding whether or not to get vaccinated against HPV. Methods Twenty-one adolescent males (ages 13–17, with no previous HPV vaccination, and their parents/guardians were recruited from adolescent primary care clinics serving low to middle income families in a large Midwestern city. Dyad members participated in separate semi-structured interviews assessing the relative role of the parent and son in the decision regarding HPV vaccination. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded using inductive content analysis. Results Parents and sons focused on protection as a reason for vaccination; parents felt a need to protect their child, while sons wanted to protect their own health. Parents and sons commonly misinterpreted the information about the vaccine. Sons were concerned about an injection in the penis, while some parents and sons thought the vaccine would protect them against other sexually transmitted infections including Herpes, Gonorrhea, and HIV. Parents and sons recalled that the vaccine prevented genital warts rather than cancer. The vaccine decision-making process was rapid and dynamic, including an initial reaction to the recommendation for HPV vaccine, discussion between parent and son, and the final vaccine decision. Provider input was weighed in instances of initial disagreement. Many boys felt that this was the first health care decision that they had been involved in. Dyads which reported shared decision-making were more likely to openly communicate about sexual issues than those

  17. Transparency in decision-making processes governing hazardous activities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, B.; Jensen, K.K.; Sandøe, P.

    2007-01-01

    Transparent decisions are decisions in which the decision maker clearly presents to others the normative and factual premises behind the conclusions and explains the reasoning leading from these premises to the conclusion. Transparency thus involves uncovering, describing, documenting...... and communicating all the argumentative steps in the line of reasoning. It also involves acknowledging the weighting of any evidence drawn upon in reaching the final decision. It is recommended that each decision should be accompanied by an audit trail describing the premises justifying it. Uncertainties should...

  18. A Cognition-based View of Decision Processes in Complex Social-Ecological Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathi K. Beratan

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This synthesis paper is intended to provide an overview of individual and collective decision-making processes that might serve as a theoretical foundation for a complexity-based approach to environmental policy design and natural resource management planning. Human activities are the primary drivers of change in the Earth's biosphere today, so efforts to shift the trajectory of social-ecological systems must focus on changes in individual and collective human behavior. Recent advances in understanding the biological basis of thought and memory offer insights of use in designing management and planning processes. The human brain has evolved ways of dealing with complexity and uncertainty, and is particularly attuned to social information. Changes in an individual's schemas, reflecting changes in the patterns of neural connections that are activated by particular stimuli, occur primarily through nonconsious processes in response to experiential learning during repeated exposure to novel situations, ideas, and relationships. Discourse is an important mechanism for schema modification, and thus for behavior change. Through discourse, groups of people construct a shared story - a collective model - that is useful for predicting likely outcomes of actions and events. In effect, good stories are models that filter and organize distributed knowledge about complex situations and relationships in ways that are readily absorbed by human cognitive processes. The importance of discourse supports the view that collaborative approaches are needed to effectively deal with environmental problems and natural resource management challenges. Methods derived from the field of mediation and dispute resolution can help us take advantage of the distinctly human ability to deal with complexity and uncertainty. This cognitive view of decision making supports fundamental elements of resilience management and adaptive co-management, including fostering social learning

  19. A naturalistic decision making model for simulated human combatants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HUNTER, KEITH O.; HART, WILLIAM E.; FORSYTHE, JAMES C.

    2000-01-01

    The authors describe a naturalistic behavioral model for the simulation of small unit combat. This model, Klein's recognition-primed decision making (RPD) model, is driven by situational awareness rather than a rational process of selecting from a set of action options. They argue that simulated combatants modeled with RPD will have more flexible and realistic responses to a broad range of small-scale combat scenarios. Furthermore, they note that the predictability of a simulation using an RPD framework can be easily controlled to provide multiple evaluations of a given combat scenario. Finally, they discuss computational issues for building an RPD-based behavior engine for fully automated combatants in small conflict scenarios, which are being investigated within Sandia's Next Generation Site Security project

  20. Human factors challenges for advanced process control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stubler, W.F.; O'Hara, J..M.

    1996-01-01

    New human-system interface technologies provide opportunities for improving operator and plant performance. However, if these technologies are not properly implemented, they may introduce new challenges to performance and safety. This paper reports the results from a survey of human factors considerations that arise in the implementation of advanced human-system interface technologies in process control and other complex systems. General trends were identified for several areas based on a review of technical literature and a combination of interviews and site visits with process control organizations. Human factors considerations are discussed for two of these areas, automation and controls

  1. Titrating decision processes in the mental rotation task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provost, Alexander; Heathcote, Andrew

    2015-10-01

    Shepard and Metzler's (1971) seminal mental-rotation task-which requires participants to decide if 1 object is a rotated version of another or its mirror image-has played a central role in the study of spatial cognition. We provide the first quantitative model of behavior in this task that is comprehensive in the sense of simultaneously providing an account of both error rates and the full distribution of response times. We used Brown and Heathcote's (2008) model of choice processing to separate out the contributions of mental rotation and decision stages. This model-based titration process was applied to data from a paradigm where converging evidence supported performance being based on rotation rather than other strategies. Stimuli were similar to Shepard and Metzler's block figures except a long major axis made rotation angle well defined for mirror stimuli, enabling comprehensive modeling of both mirror and normal responses. Results supported a mental rotation stage based on Larsen's (2014) model, where rotation takes a variable amount of time with a mean and variance that increase linearly with rotation angle. Differences in response threshold differences were largely responsible for mirror responses being slowed, and for errors increasing with rotation angle for some participants. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Space Launch System Complex Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyles, Garry; Flores, Tim; Hundley, Jason; Monk, Timothy; Feldman,Stuart

    2012-01-01

    The Space Shuttle program has ended and elements of the Constellation Program have either been cancelled or transitioned to new NASA exploration endeavors. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has worked diligently to select an optimum configuration for the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond low earth orbit (LEO) large-scale missions for the next several decades. From Fall 2010 until Spring 2011, an SLS decision-making framework was formulated, tested, fully documented, and applied to multiple SLS vehicle concepts at NASA from previous exploration architecture studies. This was a multistep process that involved performing figure of merit (FOM)-based assessments, creating Pass/Fail gates based on draft threshold requirements, performing a margin-based assessment with supporting statistical analyses, and performing sensitivity analysis on each. This paper focuses on the various steps and methods of this process (rather than specific data) that allowed for competing concepts to be compared across a variety of launch vehicle metrics in support of the successful completion of the SLS Mission Concept Review (MCR) milestone.

  3. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marewski, Julian N.; Mehlhorn, Katja

    Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a

  4. The influence of a bystander agent's beliefs on children's and adults' decision-making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buttelmann, Frances; Buttelmann, David

    2017-01-01

    The ability to attribute and represent others' mental states (e.g., beliefs; so-called "theory of mind") is essential for participation in human social interaction. Despite a considerable body of research using tasks in which protagonists in the participants' attentional focus held false or true beliefs, the question of automatic belief attribution to bystander agents has received little attention. In the current study, we presented adults and 6-year-olds (N=92) with an implicit computer-based avoidance false-belief task in which participants were asked to place an object into one of three boxes. While doing so, we manipulated the beliefs of an irrelevant human-like or non-human-like bystander agent who was visible on the screen. Importantly, the bystander agent's beliefs were irrelevant for solving the task. Still, children's decision making was significantly influenced by the bystander agent's beliefs even if this was a non-human-like self-propelled object. Such an influence did not become obvious in adults' deliberate decisions but occurred only in their reaction times, which suggests that they also processed the bystander agent's beliefs but were able to suppress the influence of such beliefs on their behavior regulation. The results of a control study (N=53) ruled out low-level explanations and confirmed that self-propelledness of agents is a necessary factor for belief attribution to occur. Thus, not only do humans spontaneously ascribe beliefs to self-propelled bystander agents, but those beliefs even influence meaningful decisions in children. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Age Differences in Dual Information-Processing Modes: Implications for Cancer Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Ellen; Diefenbach, Michael A.; Hess, Thomas M.; Västfjäll, Daniel

    2008-01-01

    Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for cancer decision making as cancer is often a disease of older adulthood. We examine evidence for adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes, review the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making and introduce how dual process theories and their findings might be applied to cancer decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age, particularly when decisions are unfamiliar and the information is numeric. However, age-related adaptive processes, including an increased focus on emotional goals and greater experience, can influence decision making and potentially offset age-related declines. A better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie cancer decision processes in our aging population should ultimately allow us to help older adults to better help themselves. PMID:19058148

  6. Age differences in dual information-processing modes: implications for cancer decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Ellen; Diefenbach, Michael A; Hess, Thomas M; Västfjäll, Daniel

    2008-12-15

    Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for cancer decision making, as cancer is often a disease of older adulthood. The authors examined evidence for adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes, reviewed the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making, and introduced how dual process theories and their findings might be applied to cancer decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age, particularly when decisions are unfamiliar and the information is numeric. However, age-related adaptive processes, including an increased focus on emotional goals and greater experience, can influence decision making and potentially offset age-related declines. A better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie cancer decision processes in our aging population should ultimately allow us to help older adults to better help themselves.

  7. Posterior Probability Matching and Human Perceptual Decision Making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard F Murray

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Probability matching is a classic theory of decision making that was first developed in models of cognition. Posterior probability matching, a variant in which observers match their response probabilities to the posterior probability of each response being correct, is being used increasingly often in models of perception. However, little is known about whether posterior probability matching is consistent with the vast literature on vision and hearing that has developed within signal detection theory. Here we test posterior probability matching models using two tools from detection theory. First, we examine the models' performance in a two-pass experiment, where each block of trials is presented twice, and we measure the proportion of times that the model gives the same response twice to repeated stimuli. We show that at low performance levels, posterior probability matching models give highly inconsistent responses across repeated presentations of identical trials. We find that practised human observers are more consistent across repeated trials than these models predict, and we find some evidence that less practised observers more consistent as well. Second, we compare the performance of posterior probability matching models on a discrimination task to the performance of a theoretical ideal observer that achieves the best possible performance. We find that posterior probability matching is very inefficient at low-to-moderate performance levels, and that human observers can be more efficient than is ever possible according to posterior probability matching models. These findings support classic signal detection models, and rule out a broad class of posterior probability matching models for expert performance on perceptual tasks that range in complexity from contrast discrimination to symmetry detection. However, our findings leave open the possibility that inexperienced observers may show posterior probability matching behaviour, and our methods

  8. Resources, attractiveness, family commitment; reproductive decisions in human mate choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bereczkei, T; Voros, S; Gal, A; Bernath, L

    1997-08-01

    This study of reproductive decisions in human mate selection used data from "lonely hearts" advertisements to examine a series of predictions based on the mate preferences of male and females relating to age; physical appearance; financial condition and socioeconomic status; family commitment and personal traits; short- and long-term mating; and marital status and preexisting children. The sample consisted of 1000 personal advertisements (500 male) placed in two daily, national papers between February and October 1994 in Hungary. The research procedure included a pilot study of 150 advertisers (75 male) to refine the categories examined. Analysis was performed using 1) a matrix with one axis referring to offers and the other to demands of males and females separately; 2) a matrix of offers only to derive correlated traits of claims by males and females; and 3) a matrix with columns describing sex, offers, demands, advertiser's age, and required age and a row for each of the 1000 samples. It was found that men preferred younger mates, while women preferred older ones. Men were more likely to seek physical attractiveness, while women were more likely to seek financial resources (ranked 7th) and high status (ranked 6th). Women strongly preferred male domestic virtue and family commitment, and twice as many women as men demanded long-term relationships. Women more frequently declared preexisting children, and men exhibited a reluctance to accept these children. Both males and females employed "trade-off" strategies, making greater demands if they felt they had attractive offers.

  9. Explicable Planning and Replanning for Human-in-the-loop Decision Support

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — For the decision support scenarios that are particularly relevant to NASA, such as planning for human space missions, human operators will need a system that can (i)...

  10. The application of Markov decision process in restaurant delivery robot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yong; Hu, Zhen; Wang, Ying

    2017-05-01

    As the restaurant delivery robot is often in a dynamic and complex environment, including the chairs inadvertently moved to the channel and customers coming and going. The traditional path planning algorithm is not very ideal. To solve this problem, this paper proposes the Markov dynamic state immediate reward (MDR) path planning algorithm according to the traditional Markov decision process. First of all, it uses MDR to plan a global path, then navigates along this path. When the sensor detects there is no obstructions in front state, increase its immediate state reward value; when the sensor detects there is an obstacle in front, plan a global path that can avoid obstacle with the current position as the new starting point and reduce its state immediate reward value. This continues until the target is reached. When the robot learns for a period of time, it can avoid those places where obstacles are often present when planning the path. By analyzing the simulation experiment, the algorithm has achieved good results in the global path planning under the dynamic environment.

  11. Dynamics Of Innovation Diffusion With Two Step Decision Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymczyk Michał

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the dynamics of innovation diffusion among heterogeneous consumers. We assume that customers’ decision making process is divided into two steps: testing the innovation and later potential adopting. Such a model setup is designed to imitate the mobile applications market. An innovation provider, to some extent, can control the innovation diffusion by two parameters: product quality and marketing activity. Using the multi-agent approach we identify factors influencing the saturation level and the speed of innovation adaptation in the artificial population. The results show that the expected level of innovation adoption among customer’s friends and relative product quality and marketing campaign intensity are crucial factors explaining them. It has to be stressed that the product quality is more important for innovation saturation level and marketing campaign has bigger influence on the speed of diffusion. The topology of social network between customers is found important, but within investigated parameter range it has lover impact on innovation diffusion dynamics than the above mentioned factors

  12. Structure and analysis of IS decision-making processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonstra, A.

    Decisions to invest in information systems (IS) are made by many organisations on a very regular basis. Such decisions can vary from quickly identifying the problem, screening options and choosing a solution in a very straightforward way, to very extensive and repeated search, screen, design and

  13. An empirical taxonomy of IS decision-making processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonstra, Albert

    2004-01-01

    Decisions to invest in information systems (IS) are made by many organisations on a very regular basis. Such decisions can vary from quickly identifying the problem, screening options and choosing a solution in a very straightforward way, to very extensive and repeated search, screen, design and

  14. Training and dual processes in human thinking

    OpenAIRE

    Neilens, Helen Louise

    2005-01-01

    The aim of the research presented in this thesis was to investigate the effects of trainin- on reasoning and decision making performance. In Experiment Ia study is reported which examined the relationships between performance on a variety of reasoning tasks and measures of individual differences. Tasks employed were documented in the literature for their differential responding according to heuristic and analytic processes. The reasoning tasks to be utilised in the training stu...

  15. Monitoring in the nearshore: A process for making reasoned decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodkin, James L.; Dean, T.A.

    2003-01-01

    Over the past several years, a conceptual framework for the GEM nearshore monitoring program has been developed through a series of workshops. However, details of the proposed monitoring program, e.g. what to sample, where to sample, when to sample and at how many sites, have yet to be determined. In FY 03 we were funded under Project 03687 to outline a process whereby specific alternatives to monitoring are developed and presented to the EVOS Trustee Council for consideration. As part of this process, two key elements are required before reasoned decisions can be made. These are: 1) a comprehensive historical perspective of locations and types of past studies conducted in the nearshore marine communities within Gulf of Alaska, and 2) estimates of costs for each element of a proposed monitoring program. We have developed a GIS database that details available information from past studies of selected nearshore habitats and species in the Gulf of Alaska and provide a visual means of selecting sites based (in part) on the locations for which historical data of interest are available. We also provide cost estimates for specific monitoring plan alternatives and outline several alternative plans that can be accomplished within reasonable budgetary constraints. The products that we will provide are: 1) A GIS database and maps showing the location and types of information available from the nearshore in the Gulf of Alaska; 2) A list of several specific monitoring alternatives that can be conducted within reasonable budgetary constraints; and 3) Cost estimates for proposed tasks to be conducted as part of the nearshore program. Because data compilation and management will not be completed until late in FY03 we are requesting support for close-out of this project in FY 04.

  16. Data Fusion Research of Triaxial Human Body Motion Gesture based on Decision Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feihong Zhou

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The development status of human body motion gesture data fusion domestic and overseas has been analyzed. A triaxial accelerometer is adopted to develop a wearable human body motion gesture monitoring system aimed at old people healthcare. On the basis of a brief introduction of decision tree algorithm, the WEKA workbench is adopted to generate a human body motion gesture decision tree. At last, the classification quality of the decision tree has been validated through experiments. The experimental results show that the decision tree algorithm could reach an average predicting accuracy of 97.5 % with lower time cost.

  17. Caregiving decision making by older mothers and adult children: process and expected outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cicirelli, Victor G

    2006-06-01

    Dyadic caregiving decision making was studied in 30 mother-son and 29 mother-daughter pairs (mother's age=65-94 years) who responded to a vignette depicting a caregiving decision situation. The observed decision-making process of mother-child pairs was largely naturalistic, with few alternatives proposed and quick convergence to a decision followed by a postdecision justification; a degree of more rational decision making was seen in some pairs. Among significant findings, adult children, especially sons, dominated the decision process, doing more talking and introducing more alternatives than did their mothers, who played a more subordinate role. Mother-son pairs expected more negative outcomes and greater regrets regarding their decisions than mother-daughter pairs. Closeness of the parent-child relationship influenced the decision-making process, expected outcomes, and regrets. Copyright (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. Decision-making process of prenatal screening described by pregnant women and their partners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wätterbjörk, Inger; Blomberg, Karin; Nilsson, Kerstin; Sahlberg-Blom, Eva

    2015-10-01

    Pregnant women are often faced with having to decide about prenatal screening for Down's syndrome. However, the decision to participate in or refrain from prenatal screening can be seen as an important decision not only for the pregnant woman but also for both the partners. The aim of this study was to explore the couples' processes of decision making about prenatal screening. A total of 37 semi-structured interviews conducted at two time points were analysed using the interpretive description. The study was carried out in Maternal health-care centres, Örebro County Council, Sweden. Fifteen couples of different ages and with different experiences of pregnancy and childbirth were interviewed. Three different patterns of decision making were identified. For the couples in 'The open and communicative decision-making process', the process was straightforward and rational, and the couples discussed the decision with each other. 'The closed and personal decision-making process' showed an immediate and non-communicative decision making where the couples decided each for themselves. The couples showing 'The searching and communicative decision-making process' followed an arduous road in deciding whether to participate or not in prenatal screening and how to cope with the result. The decision-making process was for some couples a fairly straightforward decision, while for others it was a more complex process that required a great deal of consideration. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Who decides? The decision-making process of juvenile judges concerning minors with mental disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappon, Leen

    2016-01-01

    Previous research on juvenile judges' decision-making process has neglected the role of the different actors involved in judicial procedures. The decision can be considered as a result of information exchange between the different actors involved. The process of making a decision is equally important as the decision itself, especially when the decision considers minors with mental disorders. The presence and the type of interaction determine the information available to the juvenile judges to make their final decision. The overall aim of this study is to gain insight into the role of all actors, including the juvenile judge, in the juvenile judge's decision-making process in cases relating to minors with mental disorders. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with professional actors (n=32), minors (n=31) and parents (n=17). The findings indicated that the judge's decision is overall the result of an interaction between the juvenile judge, the social services investigator and the youth psychiatrist. The other professional actors, the minors and the parents had only a limited role in the decision-making process. The research concludes that the judge's decision-making process should be based on dialogue, and requires enhanced collaboration between the juvenile court and youth psychiatrists from mental health services. Future decision-making research should pay more attention to the interactions of the actors that guide a juvenile judge's decision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Theoretical Aspects of Erroneous Actions During the Process of Decision Making by Air Traffic Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andersone Silva

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The Theoretical Aspects of Erroneous Actions During the Process of Decision Making by Air Traffic Control evaluates the factors affecting the operational decision-making of a human air traffic controller, interacting in a dynamic environment with the flight crew, surrounding aircraft traffic and environmental conditions of the airspace. This article reviews the challenges of air traffic control in different conditions, ranging from normal and complex to emergency and catastrophic. Workload factors and operating conditions make an impact on air traffic controllers’ decision-making. The proposed model compares various operating conditions within an assumed air traffic control environment subsequently comparing them against a theoretically “perfect” air traffic control system. A mathematical model of flight safety assessment has been proposed for the quantitative assessment of various hazards arising during the process of Air Traffic Control. The model assumes events of various severity and probability ranging from high frequency and low severity up to less likely and catastrophic ones. Certain limitations of the model have been recognised and further improvements for effective hazard evaluation have been suggested.

  1. Conceptual modelling of human resource evaluation process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negoiţă Doina Olivia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking into account the highly diverse tasks which employees have to fulfil due to complex requirements of nowadays consumers, the human resource within an enterprise has become a strategic element for developing and exploiting products which meet the market expectations. Therefore, organizations encounter difficulties when approaching the human resource evaluation process. Hence, the aim of the current paper is to design a conceptual model of the aforementioned process, which allows the enterprises to develop a specific methodology. In order to design the conceptual model, Business Process Modelling instruments were employed - Adonis Community Edition Business Process Management Toolkit using the ADONIS BPMS Notation. The conceptual model was developed based on an in-depth secondary research regarding the human resource evaluation process. The proposed conceptual model represents a generic workflow (sequential and/ or simultaneously activities, which can be extended considering the enterprise’s needs regarding their requirements when conducting a human resource evaluation process. Enterprises can benefit from using software instruments for business process modelling as they enable process analysis and evaluation (predefined / specific queries and also model optimization (simulations.

  2. From Trust in Automation to Decision Neuroscience: Applying Cognitive Neuroscience Methods to Understand and Improve Interaction Decisions Involved in Human Automation Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drnec, Kim; Marathe, Amar R.; Lukos, Jamie R.; Metcalfe, Jason S.

    2016-01-01

    Human automation interaction (HAI) systems have thus far failed to live up to expectations mainly because human users do not always interact with the automation appropriately. Trust in automation (TiA) has been considered a central influence on the way a human user interacts with an automation; if TiA is too high there will be overuse, if TiA is too low there will be disuse. However, even though extensive research into TiA has identified specific HAI behaviors, or trust outcomes, a unique mapping between trust states and trust outcomes has yet to be clearly identified. Interaction behaviors have been intensely studied in the domain of HAI and TiA and this has led to a reframing of the issues of problems with HAI in terms of reliance and compliance. We find the behaviorally defined terms reliance and compliance to be useful in their functionality for application in real-world situations. However, we note that once an inappropriate interaction behavior has occurred it is too late to mitigate it. We therefore take a step back and look at the interaction decision that precedes the behavior. We note that the decision neuroscience community has revealed that decisions are fairly stereotyped processes accompanied by measurable psychophysiological correlates. Two literatures were therefore reviewed. TiA literature was extensively reviewed in order to understand the relationship between TiA and trust outcomes, as well as to identify gaps in current knowledge. We note that an interaction decision precedes an interaction behavior and believe that we can leverage knowledge of the psychophysiological correlates of decisions to improve joint system performance. As we believe that understanding the interaction decision will be critical to the eventual mitigation of inappropriate interaction behavior, we reviewed the decision making literature and provide a synopsis of the state of the art understanding of the decision process from a decision neuroscience perspective. We forward

  3. From Trust in Automation to Decision Neuroscience: Applying Cognitive Neuroscience Methods to Understand and Improve Interaction Decisions Involved in Human Automation Interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drnec, Kim; Marathe, Amar R; Lukos, Jamie R; Metcalfe, Jason S

    2016-01-01

    Human automation interaction (HAI) systems have thus far failed to live up to expectations mainly because human users do not always interact with the automation appropriately. Trust in automation (TiA) has been considered a central influence on the way a human user interacts with an automation; if TiA is too high there will be overuse, if TiA is too low there will be disuse. However, even though extensive research into TiA has identified specific HAI behaviors, or trust outcomes, a unique mapping between trust states and trust outcomes has yet to be clearly identified. Interaction behaviors have been intensely studied in the domain of HAI and TiA and this has led to a reframing of the issues of problems with HAI in terms of reliance and compliance. We find the behaviorally defined terms reliance and compliance to be useful in their functionality for application in real-world situations. However, we note that once an inappropriate interaction behavior has occurred it is too late to mitigate it. We therefore take a step back and look at the interaction decision that precedes the behavior. We note that the decision neuroscience community has revealed that decisions are fairly stereotyped processes accompanied by measurable psychophysiological correlates. Two literatures were therefore reviewed. TiA literature was extensively reviewed in order to understand the relationship between TiA and trust outcomes, as well as to identify gaps in current knowledge. We note that an interaction decision precedes an interaction behavior and believe that we can leverage knowledge of the psychophysiological correlates of decisions to improve joint system performance. As we believe that understanding the interaction decision will be critical to the eventual mitigation of inappropriate interaction behavior, we reviewed the decision making literature and provide a synopsis of the state of the art understanding of the decision process from a decision neuroscience perspective. We forward

  4. Is human failure a stochastic process?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dougherty, Ed M.

    1997-01-01

    Human performance results in failure events that occur with a risk-significant frequency. System analysts have taken for granted the random (stochastic) nature of these events in engineering assessments such as risk assessment. However, cognitive scientists and error technologists, at least those who have interest in human reliability, have, over the recent years, claimed that human error does not need this stochastic framework. Yet they still use the language appropriate to stochastic processes. This paper examines the potential for the stochastic nature of human failure production as the basis for human reliability analysis. It distinguishes and leaves to others, however, the epistemic uncertainties over the possible probability models for the real variability of human performance

  5. Process of making decisions on loan currency: Influence of representativeness on information processing and coherence with consumption motives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anđelković Dragan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Rationality of decision maker is often reduced by heuristics and biases, and also by different types of external stimuli. In decision-making process individuals simplify phases of information selection and information processing by using heuristics, simple rules which are focused on one aspect of complex problem and ignore other aspects, and in that way 'speed up' decision-making process. This method of making decisions, although efficient in making simple decisions, can lead to mistakes in probability assessment and diminish rationality of decision maker. In that way it can influence drastically on transaction outcome for which decision is being made. The subject of this study is influence of representativeness heuristic on making financial decisions by individuals, and influence of consumption motives on stereotypical elements in information processing phase. Study was conducted by determining attitudes of respondents toward currencies, and then by conducting experiments with aim of analyzing method of making decisions on loan currency. Aim of study was determining whether and to what extent representativeness influence choice of currency in process of making loan decisions. Results of conducted behavioral experiments show that respondents, opposite to rational model, do not asses probability by processing available information and in accordance with their preferences, but by comparing decision objects with other objects which have same attributes, showing in that way moderate positive correlation between stereotypical attitudes and choice of loan currency. Experiments have shown that instrumental motive significantly influence representativeness heuristics, that is, individuals are prone to process information with diminished influence of stereotypical attitudes caused by external stimuli, in situations where there is no so called 'hedonistic decision-making'. Respondents have been making more efficient decisions if they had motive which does

  6. Decision Making Processes for Global Product Development - a Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, Erik Stefan; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2015-01-01

    Global Product Development (GPD), outsourcing and offshoring of product development is a widespread phenomenon on today’s global economy, and consequently most engineering manufacturing companies will have to make decisions regarding how to organise their product development activities globally...

  7. Group Decision Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process in Benefit-Risk Assessment: A Tutorial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hummel, J. Marjan; Bridges, John; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria.

  8. Theoretical Background for the Decision-Making Process Modelling under Controlled Intervention Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Bakanauskienė Irena; Baronienė Laura

    2017-01-01

    This article is intended to theoretically justify the decision-making process model for the cases, when active participation of investing entities in controlling the activities of an organisation and their results is noticeable. Based on scientific literature analysis, a concept of controlled conditions is formulated, and using a rational approach to the decision-making process, a model of the 11-steps decision-making process under controlled intervention is presented. Also, there have been u...

  9. Decision Gate Process for Assessment of a NASA Technology Development Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohli, Rajiv; Fishman, Julianna L.; Hyatt, Mark J.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Dust Management Project (DMP) was established to provide technologies (to Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6) required to address adverse effects of lunar dust to humans and to exploration systems and equipment, to reduce life cycle cost and risk, and to increase the probability of sustainable and successful lunar missions. The technology portfolio of DMP consisted of different categories of technologies whose final product was either a technology solution in itself, or one that contributes toward a dust mitigation strategy for a particular application. A Decision Gate Process (DGP) was developed to assess and validate the achievement and priority of the dust mitigation technologies as the technologies progress through the development cycle. The DGP was part of continuous technology assessment and was a critical element of DMP risk management. At the core of the process were technology-specific criteria developed to measure the success of each DMP technology in attaining the technology readiness levels assigned to each decision gate. The DGP accounts for both categories of technologies and qualifies the technology progression from technology development tasks to application areas. The process provided opportunities to validate performance, as well as to identify non-performance in time to adjust resources and direction. This paper describes the overall philosophy of the DGP and the methodology for implementation for DMP, and describes the method for defining the technology evaluation criteria. The process is illustrated by example of an application to a specific DMP technology.

  10. Decision Support System Requirements Definition for Human Extravehicular Activity Based on Cognitive Work Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Matthew James; McGuire, Kerry M; Feigh, Karen M

    2017-06-01

    The design and adoption of decision support systems within complex work domains is a challenge for cognitive systems engineering (CSE) practitioners, particularly at the onset of project development. This article presents an example of applying CSE techniques to derive design requirements compatible with traditional systems engineering to guide decision support system development. Specifically, it demonstrates the requirements derivation process based on cognitive work analysis for a subset of human spaceflight operations known as extravehicular activity . The results are presented in two phases. First, a work domain analysis revealed a comprehensive set of work functions and constraints that exist in the extravehicular activity work domain. Second, a control task analysis was performed on a subset of the work functions identified by the work domain analysis to articulate the translation of subject matter states of knowledge to high-level decision support system requirements. This work emphasizes an incremental requirements specification process as a critical component of CSE analyses to better situate CSE perspectives within the early phases of traditional systems engineering design.

  11. Decision making for wildfires: A guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary A. Taber; Lisa M. Elenz; Paul G. Langowski

    2013-01-01

    This publication focuses on the thought processes and considerations surrounding a risk management process for decision making on wildfires. The publication introduces a six element risk management cycle designed to encourage sound risk-informed decision making in accordance with Federal wildland fire policy, although the process is equally applicable to non-Federal...

  12. Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

  13. Theoretical Background for the Decision-Making Process Modelling under Controlled Intervention Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanauskienė Irena

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is intended to theoretically justify the decision-making process model for the cases, when active participation of investing entities in controlling the activities of an organisation and their results is noticeable. Based on scientific literature analysis, a concept of controlled conditions is formulated, and using a rational approach to the decision-making process, a model of the 11-steps decision-making process under controlled intervention is presented. Also, there have been unified conditions, describing the case of controlled interventions thus providing preconditions to ensure the adequacy of the proposed decision-making process model.

  14. An exploration of decision aid effectiveness: the impact of promoting affective vs. deliberative processing on a health-related decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Esther L; McCaffery, Kirsten; Mullan, Barbara; Juraskova, Ilona

    2015-12-01

    Decision aids (DAs) are non-directive communication tools that help patients make value-consistent health-care decisions. However, most DAs have been developed without an explicit theoretical framework, resulting in a lack of understanding of how DAs achieve outcomes. To investigate the effect of promoting affective vs. deliberative processing on DA effectiveness based on dual-process theory. One hundred and forty-eight female university students participated in a randomized controlled experiment with three conditions: emotion-focused, information-focused and control. Preference-value consistency, knowledge, decisional conflict and satisfaction were compared across the conditions using planned contrast analyses. The intervention comprised two different DAs and instructional manipulations. The emotion-focused condition received a modified DA with affective content and instructions to induce an affective reaction. The information-focused and control conditions received the same DA without the affective content. The information-focused condition received additional instructions to induce deliberative processing. Controlling for the experiment-wise error rate at P processing may hinder value-consistent decision making, while deliberative processing may enhance decisional satisfaction. This investigation of the effect of affective and deliberative processes in DA-supported decision making has implications for the design and use of DAs. DA effectiveness may be enhanced by incorporating a simple instruction to focus on the details of the information. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warnke, T.; Reinhardt, O.; Klabunde, A.; Willekens, F.J.; Uhrmacher, A.

    2017-01-01

    Individuals’ decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for

  16. Building and Retaining Human Capital Through the Assignment Process

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bruce, Prince

    2002-01-01

    ...). The active involvement of the HR department in partnership with the hiring unit in the decision process contributed to achieving broader organizational and individual focused criteria and other indices of decision effectiveness.

  17. Building and Retaining Human Capital Through the Assignment Process

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bruce, Prince

    2002-01-01

    ... to the promotion and transfer decision process. The empirical results support that internal selection decisions that incorporate both criteria are seen as more effective in terms of using fairer procedures and selecting the right candidates...

  18. Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

    2017-11-01

    Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

  19. Decision processes in choice overload: a product of delay and probability discounting?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Brent A; Reed, Derek D

    2013-07-01

    Recent research in the behavioral decision making literature has demonstrated that humans hyperbolically discount the subjective value of options as the number of options increases (Reed et al., 2012). These findings provide a cognitive-behavioral synthesis of the "choice overload" phenomenon, also known as the "paradox of choice." Specifically, these findings suggest that temporal discounting may serve as the underlying process contributing to this effect. As an extension, this study examined the effects of reward magnitude sizes had on rates temporal and options discounting. This manipulation was conducted to determine what role temporal discounting plays in discounting of options. The present results suggest that temporal discounting may not be the only process contributing to the choice overload effect. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Statistical Learning and Adaptive Decision-Making Underlie Human Response Time Variability in Inhibitory Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning eMa

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Response time (RT is an oft-reported behavioral measure in psychological and neurocognitive experiments, but the high level of observed trial-to-trial variability in this measure has often limited its usefulness. Here, we combine computational modeling and psychophysics to examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in this noisy measure reflect dynamic computations in human statistical learning and corresponding cognitive adjustments. We present data from the stop-signal task, in which subjects respond to a go stimulus on each trial, unless instructed not to by a subsequent, infrequently presented stop signal. We model across-trial learning of stop signal frequency, P(stop, and stop-signal onset time, SSD (stop-signal delay, with a Bayesian hidden Markov model, and within-trial decision-making with an optimal stochastic control model. The combined model predicts that RT should increase with both expected P(stop and SSD. The human behavioral data (n=20 bear out this prediction, showing P(stop and SSD both to be significant, independent predictors of RT, with P(stop being a more prominent predictor in 75% of the subjects, and SSD being more prominent in the remaining 25%. The results demonstrate that humans indeed readily internalize environmental statistics and adjust their cognitive/behavioral strategy accordingly, and that subtle patterns in RT variability can serve as a valuable tool for validating models of statistical learning and decision-making. More broadly, the modeling tools presented in this work can be generalized to a large body of behavioral paradigms, in order to extract insights about cognitive and neural processing from apparently quite noisy behavioral measures. We also discuss how this behaviorally validated model can then be used to conduct model-based analysis of neural data, in order to help identify specific brain areas for representing and encoding key computational quantities in learning and decision-making.

  1. Statistical learning and adaptive decision-making underlie human response time variability in inhibitory control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ning; Yu, Angela J

    2015-01-01

    Response time (RT) is an oft-reported behavioral measure in psychological and neurocognitive experiments, but the high level of observed trial-to-trial variability in this measure has often limited its usefulness. Here, we combine computational modeling and psychophysics to examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in this noisy measure reflect dynamic computations in human statistical learning and corresponding cognitive adjustments. We present data from the stop-signal task (SST), in which subjects respond to a go stimulus on each trial, unless instructed not to by a subsequent, infrequently presented stop signal. We model across-trial learning of stop signal frequency, P(stop), and stop-signal onset time, SSD (stop-signal delay), with a Bayesian hidden Markov model, and within-trial decision-making with an optimal stochastic control model. The combined model predicts that RT should increase with both expected P(stop) and SSD. The human behavioral data (n = 20) bear out this prediction, showing P(stop) and SSD both to be significant, independent predictors of RT, with P(stop) being a more prominent predictor in 75% of the subjects, and SSD being more prominent in the remaining 25%. The results demonstrate that humans indeed readily internalize environmental statistics and adjust their cognitive/behavioral strategy accordingly, and that subtle patterns in RT variability can serve as a valuable tool for validating models of statistical learning and decision-making. More broadly, the modeling tools presented in this work can be generalized to a large body of behavioral paradigms, in order to extract insights about cognitive and neural processing from apparently quite noisy behavioral measures. We also discuss how this behaviorally validated model can then be used to conduct model-based analysis of neural data, in order to help identify specific brain areas for representing and encoding key computational quantities in learning and decision-making.

  2. Adversarial Collaboration Decision-Making: An Overview of Social Quantum Information Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    collaborative decision - making (CDM) to solve problems is an aspect of human behavior least yielding to rational predictions. To reduce the complexity of CDM...increases. Implications for C2 decision - making are discussed. Overview of research Game theory was one of the first rational approaches to the study of...Psychologist, 36, 343-356. Lawless, W.F. (2001), The quantum of social action and the function of emotion in decision - making , Proceedings, Emotional and

  3. Child Migration Decision Making in Ghana: The Actors and Processes

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agribotix GCS 077

    The discourse on child migration decision making tends to present children as vulnerable and .... methods approach in a family migration research project with 37 families who moved within .... system (Hart, 1971), with many members living in common compounds in different household ... including housing, transport, water.

  4. Do just world believers process unfair authoritative decisions differently?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagedoorn, M.; Buunk, B.P.; van de Vliert, E.

    This experiment examined whether the frequently observed interactive effect of outcome favorability or fairness and procedural desirability or fairness on perceptions of and reactions to decisions of authorities might be the consequence of people's need to believe in a just world. One hundred and

  5. Health technology funding decision-making processes around the world: the same, yet different.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stafinski, Tania; Menon, Devidas; Philippon, Donald J; McCabe, Christopher

    2011-06-01

    All healthcare systems routinely make resource allocation decisions that trade off potential health gains to different patient populations. However, when such trade-offs relate to the introduction of new, promising health technologies, perceived 'winners' and 'losers' are more apparent. In recent years, public scrutiny over such decisions has intensified, raising the need to better understand how they are currently made and how they might be improved. The objective of this paper is to critically review and compare current processes for making health technology funding decisions at the regional, state/provincial and national level in 20 countries. A comprehensive search for published, peer-reviewed and grey literature describing actual national, state/provincial and regional/institutional technology decision-making processes was conducted. Information was extracted by two independent reviewers and tabulated to facilitate qualitative comparative analyses. To identify strengths and weaknesses of processes identified, websites of corresponding organizations were searched for commissioned reviews/evaluations, which were subsequently analysed using standard qualitative methods. A total of 21 national, four provincial/state and six regional/institutional-level processes were found. Although information on each one varied, they could be grouped into four sequential categories: (i) identification of the decision problem; (ii) information inputs; (iii) elements of the decision-making process; and (iv) public accountability and decision implementation. While information requirements of all processes appeared substantial and decision-making factors comprehensive, the way in which they were utilized was often unclear, as were approaches used to incorporate social values or equity arguments into decisions. A comprehensive inventory of approaches to implementing the four main components of all technology funding decision-making processes was compiled, from which areas for future

  6. Predicting decisions in human social interactions using real-time fMRI and pattern classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollmann, Maurice; Rieger, Jochem W; Baecke, Sebastian; Lützkendorf, Ralf; Müller, Charles; Adolf, Daniela; Bernarding, Johannes

    2011-01-01

    Negotiation and trade typically require a mutual interaction while simultaneously resting in uncertainty which decision the partner ultimately will make at the end of the process. Assessing already during the negotiation in which direction one's counterpart tends would provide a tremendous advantage. Recently, neuroimaging techniques combined with multivariate pattern classification of the acquired data have made it possible to discriminate subjective states of mind on the basis of their neuronal activation signature. However, to enable an online-assessment of the participant's mind state both approaches need to be extended to a real-time technique. By combining real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and online pattern classification techniques, we show that it is possible to predict human behavior during social interaction before the interacting partner communicates a specific decision. Average accuracy reached approximately 70% when we predicted online the decisions of volunteers playing the ultimatum game, a well-known paradigm in economic game theory. Our results demonstrate the successful online analysis of complex emotional and cognitive states using real-time fMRI, which will enable a major breakthrough for social fMRI by providing information about mental states of partners already during the mutual interaction. Interestingly, an additional whole brain classification across subjects confirmed the online results: anterior insula, ventral striatum, and lateral orbitofrontal cortex, known to act in emotional self-regulation and reward processing for adjustment of behavior, appeared to be strong determinants of later overt behavior in the ultimatum game. Using whole brain classification we were also able to discriminate between brain processes related to subjective emotional and motivational states and brain processes related to the evaluation of objective financial incentives.

  7. Predicting decisions in human social interactions using real-time fMRI and pattern classification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurice Hollmann

    Full Text Available Negotiation and trade typically require a mutual interaction while simultaneously resting in uncertainty which decision the partner ultimately will make at the end of the process. Assessing already during the negotiation in which direction one's counterpart tends would provide a tremendous advantage. Recently, neuroimaging techniques combined with multivariate pattern classification of the acquired data have made it possible to discriminate subjective states of mind on the basis of their neuronal activation signature. However, to enable an online-assessment of the participant's mind state both approaches need to be extended to a real-time technique. By combining real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI and online pattern classification techniques, we show that it is possible to predict human behavior during social interaction before the interacting partner communicates a specific decision. Average accuracy reached approximately 70% when we predicted online the decisions of volunteers playing the ultimatum game, a well-known paradigm in economic game theory. Our results demonstrate the successful online analysis of complex emotional and cognitive states using real-time fMRI, which will enable a major breakthrough for social fMRI by providing information about mental states of partners already during the mutual interaction. Interestingly, an additional whole brain classification across subjects confirmed the online results: anterior insula, ventral striatum, and lateral orbitofrontal cortex, known to act in emotional self-regulation and reward processing for adjustment of behavior, appeared to be strong determinants of later overt behavior in the ultimatum game. Using whole brain classification we were also able to discriminate between brain processes related to subjective emotional and motivational states and brain processes related to the evaluation of objective financial incentives.

  8. Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warnke, Tom; Reinhardt, Oliver; Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M

    2017-10-01

    Individuals' decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for Linked Lives (ML3) to describe the diverse decision processes of linked lives succinctly in continuous time. The context of individuals is modelled by networks the individual is part of, such as family ties and other social networks. Central concepts, such as behaviour conditional on agent attributes, age-dependent behaviour, and stochastic waiting times, are tightly integrated in the language. Thereby, alternative decisions are modelled by concurrent processes that compete by stochastic race. Using a migration model, we demonstrate how this allows for compact description of complex decisions, here based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We describe the challenges for the simulation algorithm posed by stochastic race between multiple concurrent complex decisions.

  9. Megascale processes: Natural disasters and human behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kieffer, S.W.; Barton, P.; Chesworth, W.; Palmer, A.R.; Reitan, P.; Zen, E.-A.

    2009-01-01

    Megascale geologic processes, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, floods, and meteoritic impacts have occurred intermittently throughout geologic time, and perhaps on several planets. Unlike other catastrophes discussed in this volume, a unique process is unfolding on Earth, one in which humans may be the driving agent of megadisasters. Although local effects on population clusters may have been catastrophic in the past, human societies have never been interconnected globally at the scale that currently exists. We review some megascale processes and their effects in the past, and compare present conditions and possible outcomes. We then propose that human behavior itself is having effects on the planet that are comparable to, or greater than, these natural disasters. Yet, unlike geologic processes, human behavior is potentially under our control. Because the effects of our behavior threaten the stability, or perhaps even existence, of a civilized society, we call for the creation of a body to institute coherent global, credible, scientifi cally based action that is sensitive to political, economic, religious, and cultural values. The goal would be to institute aggressive monitoring, identify and understand trends, predict their consequences, and suggest and evaluate alternative actions to attempt to rescue ourselves and our ecosystems from catastrophe. We provide a template modeled after several existing national and international bodies. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  10. Decision process in MCDM with large number of criteria and heterogeneous risk preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    Full Text Available A new decision process is proposed to address the challenge that a large number criteria in the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM problem and the decision makers with heterogeneous risk preferences. First, from the perspective of objective data, the effective criteria are extracted based on the similarity relations between criterion values and the criteria are weighted, respectively. Second, the corresponding types of theoretic model of risk preferences expectations will be built, based on the possibility and similarity between criterion values to solve the problem for different interval numbers with the same expectation. Then, the risk preferences (Risk-seeking, risk-neutral and risk-aversion will be embedded in the decision process. Later, the optimal decision object is selected according to the risk preferences of decision makers based on the corresponding theoretic model. Finally, a new algorithm of information aggregation model is proposed based on fairness maximization of decision results for the group decision, considering the coexistence of decision makers with heterogeneous risk preferences. The scientific rationality verification of this new method is given through the analysis of real case. Keywords: Heterogeneous, Risk preferences, Fairness, Decision process, Group decision

  11. Data quality and processing for decision making: divergence between corporate strategy and manufacturing processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeil, Ronald D.; Miele, Renato; Shaul, Dennis

    2000-10-01

    Information technology is driving improvements in manufacturing systems. Results are higher productivity and quality. However, corporate strategy is driven by a number of factors and includes data and pressure from multiple stakeholders, which includes employees, managers, executives, stockholders, boards, suppliers and customers. It is also driven by information about competitors and emerging technology. Much information is based on processing of data and the resulting biases of the processors. Thus, stakeholders can base inputs on faulty perceptions, which are not reality based. Prior to processing, data used may be inaccurate. Sources of data and information may include demographic reports, statistical analyses, intelligence reports (e.g., marketing data), technology and primary data collection. The reliability and validity of data as well as the management of sources and information is critical element to strategy formulation. The paper explores data collection, processing and analyses from secondary and primary sources, information generation and report presentation for strategy formulation and contrast this with data and information utilized to drive internal process such as manufacturing. The hypothesis is that internal process, such as manufacturing, are subordinate to corporate strategies. The impact of possible divergence in quality of decisions at the corporate level on IT driven, quality-manufacturing processes based on measurable outcomes is significant. Recommendations for IT improvements at the corporate strategy level are given.

  12. Decision Support System Development for Human Extravehicular Activity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The extension of human presence into deep space will depend on how successfully human planetary extravehicular activities (EVAs) are conducted without real-time...

  13. Strategic environmental assessment and the limits to rationality in decision making processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone

    The paper focueses on the subject of rationality in decision making processes and the implications for the integration of SEA.......The paper focueses on the subject of rationality in decision making processes and the implications for the integration of SEA....

  14. 44 CFR Appendix A to Part 9 - Decision-making Process for E.O. 11988

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Decision-making Process for E.O. 11988 A Appendix A to Part 9 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT..., App. A Appendix A to Part 9—Decision-making Process for E.O. 11988 EC02FE91.074 ...

  15. A decision support system prototype including human factors based on the TOGA meta-theory approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappelli, M.; Memmi, F.; Gadomski, A. M.; Sepielli, M.

    2012-01-01

    The human contribution to the risk of operation of complex technological systems is often not negligible and sometimes tends to become significant, as shown by many reports on incidents and accidents occurred in the past inside Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). An error of a human operator of a NPP can derive by both omission and commission. For instance, complex commission errors can also lead to significant catastrophic technological accidents, as for the case of the Three Mile Island accident. Typically, the problem is analyzed by focusing on the single event chain that has provoked the incident or accident. What is needed is a general framework able to include as many parameters as possible, i.e. both technological and human factors. Such a general model could allow to envisage an omission or commission error before it can happen or, alternatively, suggest preferred actions to do in order to take countermeasures to neutralize the effect of the error before it becomes critical. In this paper, a preliminary Decision Support System (DSS) based on the so-called (-) TOGA meta-theory approach is presented. The application of such a theory to the management of nuclear power plants has been presented in the previous ICAPP 2011. Here, a human factor simulator prototype is proposed in order to include the effect of human errors in the decision path. The DSS has been developed using a TRIGA research reactor as reference plant, and implemented using the LabVIEW programming environment and the Finite State Machine (FSM) model The proposed DSS shows how to apply the Universal Reasoning Paradigm (URP) and the Universal Management Paradigm (UMP) to a real plant context. The DSS receives inputs from instrumentation data and gives as output a suggested decision. It is obtained as the result of an internal elaborating process based on a performance function. The latter, describes the degree of satisfaction and efficiency, which are dependent on the level of responsibility related to

  16. System and method for integrating hazard-based decision making tools and processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgin, C Reed [Westminster, CO

    2012-03-20

    A system and method for inputting, analyzing, and disseminating information necessary for identified decision-makers to respond to emergency situations. This system and method provides consistency and integration among multiple groups, and may be used for both initial consequence-based decisions and follow-on consequence-based decisions. The system and method in a preferred embodiment also provides tools for accessing and manipulating information that are appropriate for each decision-maker, in order to achieve more reasoned and timely consequence-based decisions. The invention includes processes for designing and implementing a system or method for responding to emergency situations.

  17. Session 2 report the process of decision making in Finland: Its history and outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aebersold, M.

    2002-01-01

    The round-table discussions focussed on three questions: what were the most important steps in the decision-making process for the different stakeholders? What influenced the process and the outcome? What are the lessons learnt? (authors)

  18. CapDEM TDP - DND Capability Decision-Making Process: the As-Is

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Harvey, Gaetane; Leclerc, Jocelyn; Dussault, Genevieve

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe the current DND/CF Acquisition process as well as the associated decision-making process in order to provide the project team with a common understanding...

  19. Artificial Intelligence Framework for Simulating Clinical Decision-Making: A Markov Decision Process Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Bennett, Casey C.; Hauser, Kris

    2013-01-01

    In the modern healthcare system, rapidly expanding costs/complexity, the growing myriad of treatment options, and exploding information streams that often do not effectively reach the front lines hinder the ability to choose optimal treatment decisions over time. The goal in this paper is to develop a general purpose (non-disease-specific) computational/artificial intelligence (AI) framework to address these challenges. This serves two potential functions: 1) a simulation environment for expl...

  20. A model-referenced procedure to support adversarial decision processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.; Vlahos, K.

    1992-01-01

    In public enquiries concerning major facilities, such as the construction of a new electric power plant, it is observed that a useable decision model should be made commonly available alongside the open provision of data and assumptions. The protagonist, eg the electric utility, generally makes use of a complex, proprietary model for detailed evaluation of options. A simple emulator of this, based upon a regression analysis of numerous scenarios, and validated by further simulations is shown to be feasible and potentially attractive. It would be in the interests of the utility to make such a model-referenced decision support method generally available. The approach is considered in relation to the recent Hinkley Point C public enquiry for a new nuclear power plant in the UK. (Author)

  1. Decision-Oriented Health Technology Assessment: One Step Forward in Supporting the Decision-Making Process in Hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritrovato, Matteo; Faggiano, Francesco C; Tedesco, Giorgia; Derrico, Pietro

    2015-06-01

    This article outlines the Decision-Oriented Health Technology Assessment: a new implementation of the European network for Health Technology Assessment Core Model, integrating the multicriteria decision-making analysis by using the analytic hierarchy process to introduce a standardized methodological approach as a valued and shared tool to support health care decision making within a hospital. Following the Core Model as guidance (European network for Health Technology Assessment. HTA core model for medical and surgical interventions. Available from: http://www.eunethta.eu/outputs/hta-core-model-medical-and-surgical-interventions-10r. [Accessed May 27, 2014]), it is possible to apply the analytic hierarchy process to break down a problem into its constituent parts and identify priorities (i.e., assigning a weight to each part) in a hierarchical structure. Thus, it quantitatively compares the importance of multiple criteria in assessing health technologies and how the alternative technologies perform in satisfying these criteria. The verbal ratings are translated into a quantitative form by using the Saaty scale (Saaty TL. Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. Int J Serv Sci 2008;1:83-98). An eigenvectors analysis is used for deriving the weights' systems (i.e., local and global weights' system) that reflect the importance assigned to the criteria and the priorities related to the performance of the alternative technologies. Compared with the Core Model, this methodological approach supplies a more timely as well as contextualized evidence for a specific technology, making it possible to obtain data that are more relevant and easier to interpret, and therefore more useful for decision makers to make investment choices with greater awareness. We reached the conclusion that although there may be scope for improvement, this implementation is a step forward toward the goal of building a "solid bridge" between the scientific evidence and the final decision

  2. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  3. Design strategies for human & earth systems modeling to meet emerging multi-scale decision support needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spak, S.; Pooley, M.

    2012-12-01

    The next generation of coupled human and earth systems models promises immense potential and grand challenges as they transition toward new roles as core tools for defining and living within planetary boundaries. New frontiers in community model development include not only computational, organizational, and geophysical process questions, but also the twin objectives of more meaningfully integrating the human dimension and extending applicability to informing policy decisions on a range of new and interconnected issues. We approach these challenges by posing key policy questions that require more comprehensive coupled human and geophysical models, identify necessary model and organizational processes and outputs, and work backwards to determine design criteria in response to these needs. We find that modular community earth system model design must: * seamlessly scale in space (global to urban) and time (nowcasting to paleo-studies) and fully coupled on all component systems * automatically differentiate to provide complete coupled forward and adjoint models for sensitivity studies, optimization applications, and 4DVAR assimilation across Earth and human observing systems * incorporate diagnostic tools to quantify uncertainty in couplings, and in how human activity affects them * integrate accessible community development and application with JIT-compilation, cloud computing, game-oriented interfaces, and crowd-sourced problem-solving We outline accessible near-term objectives toward these goals, and describe attempts to incorporate these design objectives in recent pilot activities using atmosphere-land-ocean-biosphere-human models (WRF-Chem, IBIS, UrbanSim) at urban and regional scales for policy applications in climate, energy, and air quality.

  4. Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svenja Caspers

    Full Text Available Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

  5. Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caspers, Svenja; Heim, Stefan; Lucas, Marc G; Stephan, Egon; Fischer, Lorenz; Amunts, Katrin; Zilles, Karl

    2012-01-01

    Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

  6. Functional neuronal processing of human body odors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundström, Johan N; Olsson, Mats J

    2010-01-01

    Body odors carry informational cues of great importance for individuals across a wide range of species, and signals hidden within the body odor cocktail are known to regulate several key behaviors in animals. For a long time, the notion that humans may be among these species has been dismissed. We now know, however, that each human has a unique odor signature that carries information related to his or her genetic makeup, as well as information about personal environmental variables, such as diet and hygiene. Although a substantial number of studies have investigated the behavioral effects of body odors, only a handful have studied central processing. Recent studies have, however, demonstrated that the human brain responds to fear signals hidden within the body odor cocktail, is able to extract kin specific signals, and processes body odors differently than other perceptually similar odors. In this chapter, we provide an overview of the current knowledge of how the human brain processes body odors and the potential importance these signals have for us in everyday life. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Social cobots: Anticipatory decision-making for collaborative robots incorporating unexpected human behaviors

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Can Görür, O

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We propose an architecture as a robot’s decision-making mechanism to anticipate a human’s state of mind, and so plan accordingly during a human-robot collaboration task. At the core of the architecture lies a novel stochastic decision...

  8. How awareness changes the relative weights of evidence during human decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Lange, F.P.; van Gaal, S.; Lamme, V.A.F.; Dehaene, S.

    2011-01-01

    Human decisions are based on accumulating evidence over time for different options. Here we ask a simple question: How is the accumulation of evidence affected by the level of awareness of the information? We examined the influence of awareness on decision-making using combined behavioral methods

  9. Rational behavior in decision making. A comparison between humans, computers and fast and frugal strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, C.C.P.

    2007-01-01

    Rational behavior in decision making. A comparison between humans, computers, and fast and frugal strategies Chris Snijders and Frits Tazelaar (Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands) Real life decisions often have to be made in "noisy" circumstances: not all crucial information is

  10. Fuzzy Simple Additive Weighting Method in the Decision Making of Human Resource Recruitment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Prasetiyo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Company is one of the jobs that was founded to reduce unemployment. The progress of a company is determined by the human resources that exist within the company. So, the selection of workers will join the company need to be selected first. The hardest thing in making a selection factor is the effort to eliminate the subjectivity of the personnel manager so that every choice made is objective based on the criteria expected by the company. To help determine who is accepted as an employee in the company, we need a method that can provide a valid decision. Therefore, we use Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making with Simple Additive Weighting method (SAW to decide to make in human resource recruitment. This method was chosen because it can provide the best alternative from several alternatives. In this case, the alternative is that the applicants or candidates. This research was conducted by finding the weight values for each attribute. Then do the ranking process that determines the optimal alternative to the best applicants who qualify as employees of the company. Based on calculations by the SAW obtained the two highest ranking results are A5 (alternative 5 and A1 (alternative 1, to obtain two candidates received.

  11. Prestimulus influences on auditory perception from sensory representations and decision processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayser, Stephanie J; McNair, Steven W; Kayser, Christoph

    2016-04-26

    The qualities of perception depend not only on the sensory inputs but also on the brain state before stimulus presentation. Although the collective evidence from neuroimaging studies for a relation between prestimulus state and perception is strong, the interpretation in the context of sensory computations or decision processes has remained difficult. In the auditory system, for example, previous studies have reported a wide range of effects in terms of the perceptually relevant frequency bands and state parameters (phase/power). To dissociate influences of state on earlier sensory representations and higher-level decision processes, we collected behavioral and EEG data in human participants performing two auditory discrimination tasks relying on distinct acoustic features. Using single-trial decoding, we quantified the relation between prestimulus activity, relevant sensory evidence, and choice in different task-relevant EEG components. Within auditory networks, we found that phase had no direct influence on choice, whereas power in task-specific frequency bands affected the encoding of sensory evidence. Within later-activated frontoparietal regions, theta and alpha phase had a direct influence on choice, without involving sensory evidence. These results delineate two consistent mechanisms by which prestimulus activity shapes perception. However, the timescales of the relevant neural activity depend on the specific brain regions engaged by the respective task.

  12. Use of multi-criteria decision analysis in public bidding processes: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Andrade Longaray

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Institutions of Higher Education in Brazil (IFES play an important role in the country’s social and scientific development. Focused mainly on teaching, research and extension activities, the IFES are backed by support foundations aimed to the management of financial, human and material resources. Characterized as public bodies, the support foundations are governed by Law no 8.666/93 in what concerns the procurement of goods and services. Therefore, the present study is aimed to develop a model to assist the managers of such foundations in the selection of suppliers to participate in bidding processes that use invitation for bids. Therefore, we conducted a case study in one of the 55 foundations that support Brazilian federal universities. The intervention tool used was the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Firstly, we established the hierarchy of criteria for problem-solving. Then, a paired comparison was made between criteria for the same level. Subsequently, the consistency analysis of comparison matrices was verified. Finally, the relative priorities of each criterion were obtained and the objective function of the model was constructed. The model was tested through the assessment of the performance of three potential suppliers of IT equipment, and the result was legitimized by decision makers who found the instrument a valid tool to aid in making decisions on supplier selection for the foundation.

  13. To analyse a trace or not? Evaluating the decision-making process in the criminal investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitzer, Sonja; Ribaux, Olivier; Albertini, Nicola; Delémont, Olivier

    2016-05-01

    In order to broaden our knowledge and understanding of the decision steps in the criminal investigation process, we started by evaluating the decision to analyse a trace and the factors involved in this decision step. This decision step is embedded in the complete criminal investigation process, involving multiple decision and triaging steps. Considering robbery cases occurring in a geographic region during a 2-year-period, we have studied the factors influencing the decision to submit biological traces, directly sampled on the scene of the robbery or on collected objects, for analysis. The factors were categorised into five knowledge dimensions: strategic, immediate, physical, criminal and utility and decision tree analysis was carried out. Factors in each category played a role in the decision to analyse a biological trace. Interestingly, factors involving information available prior to the analysis are of importance, such as the fact that a positive result (a profile suitable for comparison) is already available in the case, or that a suspect has been identified through traditional police work before analysis. One factor that was taken into account, but was not significant, is the matrix of the trace. Hence, the decision to analyse a trace is not influenced by this variable. The decision to analyse a trace first is very complex and many of the tested variables were taken into account. The decisions are often made on a case-by-case basis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Logics of pre-merger decision-making processes: the case of Karolinska University Hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Soki; Brommels, Mats

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine how and why a decision to merge two university hospitals in a public context might occur by using an in-depth case study of the pre-merger process of Karolinska University Hospital. Based on extensive document analysis and 35 key informant interviews the paper reconstructed the pre-merger process, searched for empirical patterns, and interpreted those by applying neo-institutional theory. Spanning nearly a decade, the pre-merger process goes from idea generation through transition to decision, and took place on two arenas, political, and scientific. Both research excellence and economic efficiency are stated merger motives. By applying a neo-institutional perspective, the paper finds that the two initial phases are driven by decision rationality, which is typical for political organizations and that the final phase demonstrated action rationality, which is typical for private firms. Critical factors behind this radical change of decision logic are means convergence, uniting key stakeholder groups, and an economic and political crisis, triggering critical incidents, which ultimately legitimized the formal decision. It is evident from the paper that merger decisions in the public sector might not necessarily result from stated and/or economic drivers only. This paper suggests that a change of decision logic from decision to action rationality might promote effective decision making on large and complex issues in a public context. This is the first systematic in-depth study of a university hospital merger employing a decision-making perspective.

  15. Breaking the sound barrier: exploring parents' decision-making process of cochlear implants for their children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Pamara F

    2017-08-01

    To understand the dynamic experiences of parents undergoing the decision-making process regarding cochlear implants for their child(ren). Thirty-three parents of d/Deaf children participated in semi-structured interviews. Interviews were digitally recorded, transcribed, and coded using iterative and thematic coding. The results from this study reveal four salient topics related to parents' decision-making process regarding cochlear implantation: 1) factors parents considered when making the decision to get the cochlear implant for their child (e.g., desire to acculturate child into one community), 2) the extent to which parents' communities influence their decision-making (e.g., norms), 3) information sources parents seek and value when decision-making (e.g., parents value other parent's experiences the most compared to medical or online sources), and 4) personal experiences with stigma affecting their decision to not get the cochlear implant for their child. This study provides insights into values and perspectives that can be utilized to improve informed decision-making, when making risky medical decisions with long-term implications. With thorough information provisions, delineation of addressing parents' concerns and encompassing all aspects of the decision (i.e., medical, social and cultural), health professional teams could reduce the uncertainty and anxiety for parents in this decision-making process for cochlear implantation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Analytical tools and functions of GIS in the process control and decision support of mining company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Semrád Peter

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available The development of computer techniques, the increase in demands for the professional and possible fastest data processing, as well as for the fluency and efficiency of information gaining, exchanging and providing has a strong influence on forming the new generation of information technologies - Geografic Information Systems (GIS that rose in the second half of the twentieth century.Advancement in this area is still progressing and GIS gradually find the enforcement in individual fields where they play a great role in the process control and decision support. Nowadays, there are applications in mining and geology, where are used especially at processing and evaluating of mining - geological documentation, optimalization of mining and technical processes, planning, distributing and managing of mining as well as economic analysis that are important in terms of investment decisions to mining business.GIS are the systems for the effective keeping, updating, processing, analysing, modelling, simulating and presenting geographically oriented information. We can identify them as computer systems helping to solve real problems that should be normally required to solve by human expert.Well equipped GIS have graphic ability and accordingly manage descriptive (attribute data. They are able to secure mutual connection between graphical and descriptive data and in addition to command countless number of functions that enable the execution of spatial analysis. This fact is very important in mining and geological application.There are exploited mostly geostatistical analysis (e. g. modelling of distribution valuable and harmful components of mineral resouce in a mineral deposit, surface modelling and surface model analysis (e. g. at modelling the subsidence of mining territory, different methods of creating spatial and attribute queries about database for seeking necessary data (e. g. to find all mining blocks of deposit that meet required conditions and to

  17. Decision-making in the inductive mode : The role of human behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Nobel, Johan

    2013-01-01

    Economists have convulsively maintained the assumption that humans are able to arrive at decisions by perfect deductive rationality, despite the fact empirical evidences are showing otherwise. The contradicting evidences have resulted in a personal view that instead of finding a unified theory about decision-making, a sound approach would be to study how humans in fact are reasoning in specific contexts. The context of interest for this paper is where it could be assumed humans’ persistence o...

  18. Factor Of Vendor Selection And Employees’ Morale Towards Human Resource Outsourcing Decision In Organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiean Tan Kok

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate factor of vendor selection and employees’ morale towards human resource outsourcing decision in organization. Study was conducted in Melaka within private organizations. Questionnaire was distributed and only 60 respondents were collected back. Data analysis was perform using SPSS version 21. Findings shows that employee’s morale show high significant relationship (r=0.761, p <0.05 with human resource outsourcing decision. Limitation and conclusion were discussed in this study.

  19. Difficult decisions: A qualitative exploration of the statistical decision making process from the perspectives of psychology students and academics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter James Allen

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these ‘experts’ were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in

  20. Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Peter J; Dorozenko, Kate P; Roberts, Lynne D

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these "experts" were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid

  1. Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Peter J.; Dorozenko, Kate P.; Roberts, Lynne D.

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these “experts” were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid

  2. Nonlinear impacts of small-scale natural events on Nineteenth Century human decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, S. M.; Schlichting, K. M.; Urbanova, T.; Allen, T. L.; Ruffing, C. M.; Hermans, C. M.

    2009-12-01

    Natural climatological events that occurred throughout the Nineteenth Century, such as floods, droughts and hurricanes had long-lived, far-reaching consequences on the human decision-making processes occurring in the northeast United States. These events impacted the hydrological cycle, both directly -though the building of various structures- and indirectly - through an increased understanding of science; and the changing relationship between humans and their environment. This paper examines these events and associated processes through: 1) identifying specific natural events throughout the time period, occurring globally, with initial conditions conducive to long-lived consequences; 2) examining the relationship between scientific enquiry, natural events and the proliferation of dams in the northeast landscape; and 3) the growth of public health concerns, awareness of bacteriology, and municipal water supply systems. Results of this research indicate that the relationship between knowledge systems, natural events and subsequent engineering or technological fixes is complex and highly dependent on initial conditions. It highlights the time period where humans became increasingly dependent on engineered solutions to environmental problems, many of which still hold fast in our contemporary landscape. It is relevant to natural, social and governance structures in place today. The principles behind the occurrence of the natural phenomena and subsequent research and design have not changed; and understanding key events or stages in the past is tantamount to making predictions for the future.

  3. A decision support system for a multi stakeholder’s decision process in a Portuguese National Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Garcia-Gonzalo

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: In this paper, we present a decision support system (DSS to support decision making where different stakeholders have to generate landscape and forest level strategic plans. We further present an interactive approach that may take advantage of a posteriori preference modelling (i.e. Pareto frontier technique to facilitate the specification of the levels of achievement of various objectives.Area of study: The approach was applied to one planning cycle of a real world study case, the Leiria National Forest in Portugal. The Leiria National Forest, a managed area of approximately eleven thousand hectares in which 8,679 hectares are even aged stands of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait aimed at the production of wood.Material and methods: The interactive approach, at first, tries to generate Pareto efficient frontiers for different objectives. Then, multiple decision makers are involved in the process to seek an agreement towards the definition of a consensual strategic plan.Main results: The system developed in this article integrates an information management subsystem, a module to generate alternative management regimes, growth model routines and a decision module that generates and solves mathematical formulations. It also provides a module to display reports and view the resulting solutions (management plans. We also build the Pareto frontier for different criteria. The results show that the proposed DSS can help solve strategic planning problems subject to sustainable management constraints where people organize themselves and participate jointly to manage their natural resources.Research highlights: The interactive approach facilitates the involvement of multiple stakeholders in the decision making process.Keywords: decision support system; participatory planning; linear programming; mixed integer goal programming; sustainable forest management.

  4. On the Systematicity of Human Translation Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carl, Michael; Dragsted, Barbara; Lykke Jakobsen, Arnt

    While translation careers and the translation profession become more globalised and more technological, we are still far from understanding how humans actually translate and how they could be best supported by machines. In this paper we attempt to outline a method which helps to uncover character......While translation careers and the translation profession become more globalised and more technological, we are still far from understanding how humans actually translate and how they could be best supported by machines. In this paper we attempt to outline a method which helps to uncover...... characteristic steps in human translation processes. Based on the translators' activity data, we develop a taxonomy of translation styles, which are characteristic for different kinds of translators. The taxonomy could serve to inform the development of advanced translation assistance tools and provide a basis...

  5. HOSPITAL SITE SELECTION USING TWO-STAGE FUZZY MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Soltani

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Site selection for sitting of urban activities/facilities is one of the crucial policy-related decisions taken by urban planners and policy makers. The process of site selection is inherently complicated. A careless site imposes exorbitant costs on city budget and damages the environment inevitably. Nowadays, multi-attributes decision making approaches are suggested to use to improve precision of decision making and reduce surplus side effects. Two well-known techniques, analytical hierarchal process and analytical network process are among multi-criteria decision making systems which can easily be consistent with both quantitative and qualitative criteria. These are also developed to be fuzzy analytical hierarchal process and fuzzy analytical network process systems which are capable of accommodating inherent uncertainty and vagueness in multi-criteria decision-making. This paper reports the process and results of a hospital site selection within the Region 5 of Shiraz metropolitan area, Iran using integrated fuzzy analytical network process systems with Geographic Information System (GIS. The weights of the alternatives were calculated using fuzzy analytical network process. Then a sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the elasticity of a decision in regards to different criteria. This study contributes to planning practice by suggesting a more comprehensive decision making tool for site selection.

  6. HOSPITAL SITE SELECTION USING TWO-STAGE FUZZY MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Soltani

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Site selection for sitting of urban activities/facilities is one of the crucial policy-related decisions taken by urban planners and policy makers. The process of site selection is inherently complicated. A careless site imposes exorbitant costs on city budget and damages the environment inevitably. Nowadays, multi-attributes decision making approaches are suggested to use to improve precision of decision making and reduce surplus side effects. Two well-known techniques, analytical hierarchal process and analytical network process are among multi-criteria decision making systems which can easily be consistent with both quantitative and qualitative criteria. These are also developed to be fuzzy analytical hierarchal process and fuzzy analytical network process systems which are capable of accommodating inherent uncertainty and vagueness in multi-criteria decision-making. This paper reports the process and results of a hospital site selection within the Region 5 of Shiraz metropolitan area, Iran using integrated fuzzy analytical network process systems with Geographic Information System (GIS. The weights of the alternatives were calculated using fuzzy analytical network process. Then a sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the elasticity of a decision in regards to different criteria. This study contributes to planning practice by suggesting a more comprehensive decision making tool for site selection.

  7. The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W; Cohen, Andrew L; Huettel, Scott A

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making - despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics.

  8. The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W.; Cohen, Andrew L.; Huettel, Scott A.

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making – despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics. PMID:26388664

  9. Improving management decision processes through centralized communication linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simanton, D. F.; Garman, J. R.

    1985-01-01

    Information flow is a critical element to intelligent and timely decision-making. At NASA's Johnson Space Center the flow of information is being automated through the use of a centralized backbone network. The theoretical basis of this network, its implications to the horizontal and vertical flow of information, and the technical challenges involved in its implementation are the focus of this paper. The importance of the use of common tools among programs and some future concerns related to file transfer, graphics transfer, and merging of voice and data are also discussed.

  10. Earthing the human body influences physiologic processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokal, Karol; Sokal, Pawel

    2011-04-01

    This study was designed to answer the question: Does the contact of the human organism with the Earth via a copper conductor affect physiologic processes? Subjects and experiments: Five (5) experiments are presented: experiment 1-effect of earthing on calcium-phosphate homeostasis and serum concentrations of iron (N = 84 participants); experiment 2-effect of earthing on serum concentrations of electrolytes (N = 28); experiment 3-effect of earthing on thyroid function (N = 12); experiment 4-effect of earthing on glucose concentration (N = 12); experiment 5-effect of earthing on immune response to vaccine (N = 32). Subjects were divided into two groups. One (1) group of people was earthed, while the second group remained without contact with the Earth. Blood and urine samples were examined. Earthing of an electrically insulated human organism during night rest causes lowering of serum concentrations of iron, ionized calcium, inorganic phosphorus, and reduction of renal excretion of calcium and phosphorus. Earthing during night rest decreases free tri-iodothyronine and increases free thyroxine and thyroid-stimulating hormone. The continuous earthing of the human body decreases blood glucose in patients with diabetes. Earthing decreases sodium, potassium, magnesium, iron, total protein, and albumin concentrations while the levels of transferrin, ferritin, and globulins α1, α2, β, and γ increase. These results are statistically significant. Earthing the human body influences human physiologic processes. This influence is observed during night relaxation and during physical activity. Effect of the earthing on calcium-phosphate homeostasis is the opposite of that which occurs in states of weightlessness. It also increases the activity of catabolic processes. It may be the primary factor regulating endocrine and nervous systems.

  11. Earthing the Human Body Influences Physiologic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokal, Karol

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Objectives This study was designed to answer the question: Does the contact of the human organism with the Earth via a copper conductor affect physiologic processes? Subjects and experiments Five (5) experiments are presented: experiment 1—effect of earthing on calcium–phosphate homeostasis and serum concentrations of iron (N = 84 participants); experiment 2—effect of earthing on serum concentrations of electrolytes (N = 28); experiment 3—effect of earthing on thyroid function (N = 12); experiment 4—effect of earthing on glucose concentration (N = 12); experiment 5—effect of earthing on immune response to vaccine (N = 32). Subjects were divided into two groups. One (1) group of people was earthed, while the second group remained without contact with the Earth. Blood and urine samples were examined. Results Earthing of an electrically insulated human organism during night rest causes lowering of serum concentrations of iron, ionized calcium, inorganic phosphorus, and reduction of renal excretion of calcium and phosphorus. Earthing during night rest decreases free tri-iodothyronine and increases free thyroxine and thyroid-stimulating hormone. The continuous earthing of the human body decreases blood glucose in patients with diabetes. Earthing decreases sodium, potassium, magnesium, iron, total protein, and albumin concentrations while the levels of transferrin, ferritin, and globulins α1, α2, β, and γ increase. These results are statistically significant. Conclusions Earthing the human body influences human physiologic processes. This influence is observed during night relaxation and during physical activity. Effect of the earthing on calcium–phosphate homeostasis is the opposite of that which occurs in states of weightlessness. It also increases the activity of catabolic processes. It may be the primary factor regulating endocrine and nervous systems. PMID:21469913

  12. Cognitive Structures in Vocational Information Processing and Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevill, Dorothy D.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Tested the assumptions that the structural features of vocational schemas affect vocational information processing and career self-efficacy. Results indicated that effective vocational information processing was facilitated by well-integrated systems that processed information along fewer dimensions. The importance of schematic organization on the…

  13. Understanding the decision-making process for health promotion programming at small to midsized businesses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, M Courtney; Patrick, Donald L; Hannon, Peggy A; Harris, Jeffrey R; Ghosh, Donetta L

    2011-07-01

    This study explores the decision-making process for implementing and continuing health promotion programs at small to midsized businesses to inform health promotion practitioners and researchers as they market their services to these businesses. Qualitative interviews are conducted with 24 employers located in the Pacific Northwest ranging in size from 75 to 800 employees, with the majority having between 100 and 200 employees. Small to midsized employers depend most on company success-related factors rather than on humanitarian motives when deciding whether to adopt workplace health promotion programs. They rely heavily on health insurers for health promotion and desire more information about the actual costs and cost-benefits of programs. To increase health promotion adoption at small to midsized businesses, health promotion practitioners should appeal to overall company success-related factors, use the insurance channel, and target their information to both human resource personnel and senior management.

  14. Decision Making and Ratio Processing in Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertl, Marie-Theres; Benke, Thomas; Zamarian, Laura; Delazer, Margarete

    2015-01-01

    Making advantageous decisions is important in everyday life. This study aimed at assessing how patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) make decisions under risk. Additionally, it investigated the relationship between decision making, ratio processing, basic numerical abilities, and executive functions. Patients with MCI (n = 22) were compared with healthy controls (n = 29) on a complex task of decision making under risk (Game of Dice Task-Double, GDT-D), on two tasks evaluating basic decision making under risk, on a task of ratio processing, and on several neuropsychological background tests. Patients performed significantly lower than controls on the GDT-D and on ratio processing, whereas groups performed comparably on basic decision tasks. Specifically, in the GDT-D, patients obtained lower net scores and lower mean expected values, which indicate a less advantageous performance relative to that of controls. Performance on the GDT-D correlated significantly with performance in basic decision tasks, ratio processing, and executive-function measures when the analysis was performed on the whole sample. Patients with MCI make sub-optimal decisions in complex risk situations, whereas they perform at the same level as healthy adults in simple decision situations. Ratio processing and executive functions have an impact on the decision-making performance of both patients and healthy older adults. In order to facilitate advantageous decisions in complex everyday situations, information should be presented in an easily comprehensible form and cognitive training programs for patients with MCI should focus--among other abilities--on executive functions and ratio processing.

  15. Representations and processes of human spatial competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunzelmann, Glenn; Lyon, Don R

    2011-10-01

    This article presents an approach to understanding human spatial competence that focuses on the representations and processes of spatial cognition and how they are integrated with cognition more generally. The foundational theoretical argument for this research is that spatial information processing is central to cognition more generally, in the sense that it is brought to bear ubiquitously to improve the adaptivity and effectiveness of perception, cognitive processing, and motor action. We describe research spanning multiple levels of complexity to understand both the detailed mechanisms of spatial cognition, and how they are utilized in complex, naturalistic tasks. In the process, we discuss the critical role of cognitive architectures in developing a consistent account that spans this breadth, and we note some areas in which the current version of a popular architecture, ACT-R, may need to be augmented. Finally, we suggest a framework for understanding the representations and processes of spatial competence and their role in human cognition generally. Copyright © 2011 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  16. Consumer's Buying Decision-Making Process in E-Commerce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puspitasari, Nia Budi; Susatyo, Nugroho W. P.; Amyhorsea, Deya Nilan; Susanty, Aries

    2018-02-01

    The e-commerce growth and development in Indonesia is very rapid as well as the internet grows, but it is not well-balanced with the number of online buying transaction which is still relatively low. Even the today's biggest B2C e-commerce people in Indonesia, Lazada, has continually decreased online purchasing. This research is aimed to describe factors affecting online buying decision- making in the e-commerce Lazada. The type of this research is confirmatory research. The variable used is following conceptual model i.e. Electronic Word of Mouth (EWOM), social identity, risk perception, trust, and purchase intention. The data were obtained through the questionnaire with Likert scale 1-5. There are 104 people researching sample who meets the criteria as Lazada consumer that, at least do a transaction in recent six months. Data analyzing were done using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) method by Analysis of Moment Structures (AMOS) software. The results showed that the purchase intention has positively related to the purchase decision. Variable EWOM toward trust has positive relation, variable social identity and risk perception have no any significant relation to trust. Variable risk perception toward purchase intention has no significant relation, while the variable trust has significant positive relation to purchase intention.

  17. The role of logistics information system in the business-decision process

    OpenAIRE

    Galicic, Vlado; Pilepic, Ljubica

    2007-01-01

    The development of logistics information systems that support decision-making, together with the use of business intelligence, provides assistance and support to logistics managers in the decision process, thereby impacting on the quality of business and productivity. Being better informed and having greater intelligence for decision-making can help to create new value and gain competitive advantage. Logistics business systems in a tourism destination appreciate the importance of information ...

  18. Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries

    OpenAIRE

    Claassen, G.D.H.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries Nowadays, efficient planning of material flows within and between supply chains is of vital importance and has become one of the most challenging problems for decision support in practice. The tremendous progress in hard- and software of the past decades was an important gateway for developing computerized systems that are able to support decision making on different levels within enterprises. T...

  19. Theoretical aspects of cellular decision-making and information-processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Tetsuya J; Kamimura, Atsushi

    2012-01-01

    Microscopic biological processes have extraordinary complexity and variety at the sub-cellular, intra-cellular, and multi-cellular levels. In dealing with such complex phenomena, conceptual and theoretical frameworks are crucial, which enable us to understand seemingly different intra- and inter-cellular phenomena from unified viewpoints. Decision-making is one such concept that has attracted much attention recently. Since a number of cellular behavior can be regarded as processes to make specific actions in response to external stimuli, decision-making can cover and has been used to explain a broad range of different cellular phenomena [Balázsi et al. (Cell 144(6):910, 2011), Zeng et al. (Cell 141(4):682, 2010)]. Decision-making is also closely related to cellular information-processing because appropriate decisions cannot be made without exploiting the information that the external stimuli contain. Efficiency of information transduction and processing by intra-cellular networks determines the amount of information obtained, which in turn limits the efficiency of subsequent decision-making. Furthermore, information-processing itself can serve as another concept that is crucial for understanding of other biological processes than decision-making. In this work, we review recent theoretical developments on cellular decision-making and information-processing by focusing on the relation between these two concepts.

  20. Measuring process performance within healthcare logistics - a decision tool for selecting measuring technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feibert, Diana Cordes; Jacobsen, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Performance measurement can support the organization in improving the efficiency and effectiveness of logistical healthcare processes. Selecting the most suitable technologies is important to ensure data validity. A case study of the hospital cleaning process at a public Danish hospital...... was conducted. Monitoring tasks and ascertaining quality of work is difficult in such a process. Based on principal-agent theory, a set of decision indicator has been developed, and a decision framework for assessing technologies to enable performance measurement has been proposed....

  1. Some applications of fuzzy sets and the analytical hierarchy process to decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Castro, Alberto Rosas

    1984-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution unlimited This thesis examines the use of fuzzy set theory and the analytic hierarchy process in decision making. It begins by reviewing the insight of psychologists, social scientists and computer scientists to the decision making process. The Operations Research- Systems Analysis approach is discussed followed by a presentation of the basis of fuzzy set theory and the analytic hierarchy process. Two applications of these meth...

  2. Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheer, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints

  3. Process evaluation of the human reliability data bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, D.P.; Comer, K.

    1985-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Sandia National Laboratories have been developing a plan for a human reliability data bank since August 1981. This research is in response to the data need of the nuclear power industry's probabilistic risk assessment community. The three phases of the program are to: (a) develop the data bank concept, (b) develop an implementation plan and conduct a process evaluation, and (c) assist a sponsor in implementing the data bank. The program is now in Phase B. This paper describes the methods used and the results of the process evaluation. Decisions to be made in the future regarding full-scale implementation will be based, in part, on the outcome of this study

  4. Process evaluation of the human reliability data bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, D.P.; Comer, K.

    1984-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Sandia National Laboratories have been developing a plan for a human reliability data bank since August 1981. This research is in response to the data needs of the nuclear power industry's probabilistic risk assessment community. The three phases of the program are to: (A) develop the data bank concept, (B) develop an implementation plan and conduct a process evaluation, and (C) assist a sponsor in implementing the data bank. The program is now in Phase B. This paper describes the methods used and the results of the process evaluation. Decisions to be made in the future regarding full-scale implementation will be based in part on the outcome of this study

  5. Message processing in the human brain. III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerke, P

    1983-10-07

    For pt.II see ibid., no.19, p.95-100 (1983). The general problem of the possibly achievable super brain is discussed, and subtle differences between various linkages leading to selective processes, creativity decision making and speculative assessments are pointed out and translated into possible approaches to the making of machine intelligence. Generally, associative sequences for processing of large data flows cannot be attempted without the provision of generally valid linkage rules. Such coordination steps are considered first, the brain-machine simulation being built-up vertically on 6 levels and horizontally as recognition stages in an event. These six levels are: repertoire (i.e. vocabulary); definition; scene; happenings; spatial linkages; temporal linkages. Event simulation proceeds from the descriptive to the cognitive situation. Speculative discussions continue with the gradual introduction of computer hardware and software concepts to be adapted for intelligence simulation; thus, the simplest associative process could start with an adder network and proceed to a virtual expert system, which would include teaching by example, autonomous control, non-procedural language, all these governed by schedules.

  6. Non-technical factors impacting on the decision making processes in environmental remediation. Influences on the decision making process such as cost, planned land use and public perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-04-01

    The IAEA attaches great importance to the dissemination of information that can assist Member States with the development, implementation, maintenance and continuous improvement of systems, programmes and activities that support the nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear applications, including the legacy of past practices and accidents. In response to this, the IAEA has initiated a comprehensive programme of work covering all aspects of environmental remediation: factors important for formulating a strategy for environmental remediation; site characterisation techniques and strategies; assessment of remediation technologies; assessment of technical options for cleanup of contaminated media; post-restoration compliance monitoring; assessment of the costs of remediation measures; remediation of low-level disperse radioactive contaminations in the environment. While this project mainly focus on technological aspects, non-technical factors will be influencing the decision making process in remediation decisively. Often their influence is only tacitly accepted and not explicitly acknowledged by the responsible decision makers. This makes it difficult to trace the decision making process in the event that it has to be revisited. The present publication attempts to make these factors explicit and to present methods to include them consciously into the decision making process

  7. Considerations about decision processes in the nuclear field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borges, J.C.

    1986-01-01

    In all the countries of the world, official energy policies and programs are criticized by experts from the academic community and by the population at large. It is quite normal that people censure their government, but under the cloak of scientific arguments, one can usually find political objectives. The parameters which are an influence in this power game: up to what point can or should technocrats decide in the name of the people when and how can or should the people demonstrate their preference are presented. As this is a vast and polemic theme, and in order that some concrete conclusion could be drawn, we tried to concentrate our analysis on a specific case: the Brazilian decision to use nuclear energy. (Author) [pt

  8. Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayal, Shahar; Rusou, Zohar; Zakay, Dan; Hochman, Guy

    2015-01-01

    A framework is presented to better characterize the role of individual differences in information processing style and their interplay with contextual factors in determining decision making quality. In Experiment 1, we show that individual differences in information processing style are flexible and can be modified by situational factors. Specifically, a situational manipulation that induced an analytical mode of thought improved decision quality. In Experiment 2, we show that this improvement in decision quality is highly contingent on the compatibility between the dominant thinking mode and the nature of the task. That is, encouraging an intuitive mode of thought led to better performance on an intuitive task but hampered performance on an analytical task. The reverse pattern was obtained when an analytical mode of thought was encouraged. We discuss the implications of these results for the assessment of decision making competence, and suggest practical directions to help individuals better adjust their information processing style to the situation at hand and make optimal decisions.

  9. The participation of the German Länder in the EU decision-making process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Panara

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article sketches out the main features of the German system of regional participation in the EU decision-making process with the aim of identifying the key strengths and weaknesses of that system. The author will be examining whether the model currently in place allows for a sufficiently rapid and effective response to the EU decision-making process, and whether there is a sufficiently balanced representation of regional and federal interests at the EU level. The article will also contain a proposal as to how the German model of regional participation in the EU decision-making process could be further improved.

  10. Thermodynamic view on decision-making process: emotions as a potential power vector of realization of the choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pakhomov, Anton; Sudin, Natalya

    2013-12-01

    This research is devoted to possible mechanisms of decision-making in frames of thermodynamic principles. It is also shown that the decision-making system in reply to emotion includes vector component which seems to be often a necessary condition to transfer system from one state to another. The phases of decision-making system can be described as supposed to be nonequilibrium and irreversible to which thermodynamics laws are applied. The mathematical model of a decision choice, proceeding from principles of the nonlinear dynamics considering instability of movement and bifurcation is offered. The thermodynamic component of decision-making process on the basis of vector transfer of energy induced by emotion at the given time is surveyed. It is proposed a three-modular model of decision making based on principles of thermodynamics. Here it is suggested that at entropy impact due to effect of emotion, on the closed system-the human brain,-initially arises chaos, then after fluctuations of possible alternatives which were going on-reactions of brain zones in reply to external influence, an order is forming and there is choice of alternatives, according to primary entrance conditions and a state of the closed system. Entropy calculation of a choice expectation of negative and positive emotion shows judgment possibility of existence of "the law of emotion conservation" in accordance with several experimental data.

  11. Team confidence, motivated information processing, and dynamic group decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Dreu, C.K.W.; Beersma, B.

    2010-01-01

    According to the Motivated Information Processing in Groups (MIP-G) model, groups should perform ambiguous (non-ambiguous) tasks better when they have high (low) epistemic motivation and concomitant tendencies to engage in systematic (heuristic) information processing and exchange. The authors

  12. A Practical Decision-Analysis Process for Forest Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Michael Rauscher; F. Thomas Lloyd; David L. Loftis; Mark J. Twery

    2000-01-01

    Many authors have pointed out the need to firm up the 'fuzzy' ecosystem management paradigm and develop operationally practical processes to allow forest managers to accommodate more effectively the continuing rapid change in societal perspectives and goals. There are three spatial scales where clear, precise, practical ecosystem management processes are...

  13. Evidence combination for incremental decision-making processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berrada, Ghita; van Keulen, Maurice; de Keijzer, Ander

    The establishment of a medical diagnosis is an incremental process highly fraught with uncertainty. At each step of this painstaking process, it may be beneficial to be able to quantify the uncertainty linked to the diagnosis and steadily update the uncertainty estimation using available sources of

  14. When to trust our learners? Clinical teachers' perceptions of decision variables in the entrustment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duijn, Chantal C M A; Welink, Lisanne S; Bok, Harold G J; Ten Cate, Olle T J

    2018-06-01

    Clinical training programs increasingly use entrustable professional activities (EPAs) as focus of assessment. However, questions remain about which information should ground decisions to trust learners. This qualitative study aimed to identify decision variables in the workplace that clinical teachers find relevant in the elaboration of the entrustment decision processes. The findings can substantiate entrustment decision-making in the clinical workplace. Focus groups were conducted with medical and veterinary clinical teachers, using the structured consensus method of the Nominal Group Technique to generate decision variables. A ranking was made based on a relevance score assigned by the clinical teachers to the different decision variables. Field notes, audio recordings and flip chart lists were analyzed and subsequently translated and, as a form of axial coding, merged into one list, combining the decision variables that were similar in their meaning. A list of 11 and 17 decision variables were acknowledged as relevant by the medical and veterinary teacher groups, respectively. The focus groups yielded 21 unique decision variables that were considered relevant to inform readiness to perform a clinical task on a designated level of supervision. The decision variables consisted of skills, generic qualities, characteristics, previous performance or other information. We were able to group the decision variables into five categories: ability, humility, integrity, reliability and adequate exposure. To entrust a learner to perform a task at a specific level of supervision, a supervisor needs information to support such a judgement. This trust cannot be credited on a single case at a single moment of assessment, but requires different variables and multiple sources of information. This study provides an overview of decision variables giving evidence to justify the multifactorial process of making an entrustment decision.

  15. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action: developing a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA ) process for prioritization of NAMAs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Sudhir; Desgain, Denis DR; Sandbukt, Sunniva

    be relevant as next year countries will have to translate their mitigation contribution outlined in their INDCs submitted to UNFCCC into implementation plans. Multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a tool commonly used for decision making process, including to rank options or to short-list a limited...

  16. Free-Choice Learning Suited to Women's Participation Needs in Environmental Decision-Making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skanavis, Constantina; Sakellari, Maria

    2012-01-01

    United Nations mandates recognize the need to promote the full participation of women in environmental decision-making processes on the basis of gender equality. But, there remains a profound lack of effective women's participation in some sectors of environmental decision-making. Free-choice environmental learning offers an effective educational…

  17. Examination of Children Decision Making Using Clues during the Logical Reasoning Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çelik, Meryem

    2017-01-01

    Logical reasoning is the process of thinking about a problem and finding the most effective solution. Children's decision-making skills are part of their cognitive development and are also indicative. The purpose of this study was to examine children's decision-making skills using clues in logical reasoning based on various variables. The study…

  18. Communication barriers in the decision-making process : System Language and System Thinking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schinagl, S.; Paans, R.

    2017-01-01

    A major problem in the decision-making process is poor communication regarding threats and risks between information security experts and decision makers. By their nature, experts have a strong interest in operational details and limited insight into the purpose of the organization as they may not

  19. Risk aversion and risk seeking in multicriteria forest management: a Markov decision process approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno; Mo Zhou; Craig Johnston

    2017-01-01

    Markov decision process models were extended to reflect some consequences of the risk attitude of forestry decision makers. One approach consisted of maximizing the expected value of a criterion subject to an upper bound on the variance or, symmetrically, minimizing the variance subject to a lower bound on the expected value.  The other method used the certainty...

  20. Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claassen, G.D.H.

    2014-01-01

    Summary

    Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries

    Nowadays, efficient planning of material flows within and between supply chains is of vital importance and has become one of the most challenging problems for decision support in

  1. Due Process and Higher Education: A Systemic Approach to Fair Decision Making. ERIC Digest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Ed

    University officials and faculty are frequently required to make decisions based on interpretations of disputed facts. By applying the concept of due process within the context of higher education, they can meet legal challenges of contract and constitutional law and the pedagogical demand for justice. To guide their efforts, decision makers can…

  2. Why unbiased computational processes can lead to discriminative decision procedures (Chapter 3)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calders, T.G.K.; Zliobaite, I.; Custers, B.H.M.; Calders, T.G.K.; Schermer, B.W.; Zarsky, T.Z.

    2013-01-01

    Nowadays, more and more decision procedures are supported or even guided by automated processes. An important technique in this automation is data mining. In this chapter we study how such automatically generated decision support models may exhibit discriminatory behavior towards certain groups

  3. The Use of Art in the Medical Decision-Making Process of Oncology Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czamanski-Cohen, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    The introduction of written informed consent in the 1970s created expectations of shared decision making between doctors and patients that has led to decisional conflict for some patients. This study utilized a collaborative, intrinsic case study approach to the decision-making process of oncology patients who participated in an open art therapy…

  4. Analyses of Markov decision process structure regarding the possible strategic use of interacting memory systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric A Zilli

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Behavioral tasks are often used to study the different memory systems present in humans and animals. Such tasks are usually designed to isolate and measure some aspect of a single memory system. However, it is not necessarily clear that any given task actually does isolate a system or that the strategy used by a subject in the experiment is the one desired by the experimenter. We have previously shown that when tasks are written mathematically as a form of partially-observable Markov decision processes, the structure of the tasks provide information regarding the possible utility of certain memory systems. These previous analyses dealt with the disambiguation problem: given a specific ambiguous observation of the environment, is there information provided by a given memory strategy that can disambiguate that observation to allow a correct decisionµ Here we extend this approach to cases where multiple memory systems can be strategically combined in different ways. Specifically, we analyze the disambiguation arising from three ways by which episodic-like memory retrieval might be cued (by another episodic-like memory, by a semantic association, or by working memory for some earlier observation. We also consider the disambiguation arising from holding earlier working memories, episodic-like memories or semantic associations in working memory. From these analyses we can begin to develop a quantitative hierarchy among memory systems in which stimulus-response memories and semantic associations provide no disambiguation while the episodic memory system provides the most flexible

  5. Flexible human machine interface for process diagnostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reifman, J.; Graham, G.E.; Wei, T.Y.C.; Brown, K.R.; Chin, R.Y.

    1996-01-01

    A flexible human machine interface to design and display graphical and textual process diagnostic information is presented. The system operates on different computer hardware platforms, including PCs under MS Windows and UNIX Workstations under X-Windows, in a client-server architecture. The interface system is customized for specific process applications in a graphical user interface development environment by overlaying the image of the process piping and instrumentation diagram with display objects that are highlighted in color during diagnostic display. Customization of the system is presented for Commonwealth Edison's Braidwood PWR Chemical and Volume Control System with transients simulated by a full-scale operator-training simulator and diagnosed by a computer-based system

  6. Conceptual Frameworks for the Workplace Change Adoption Process: Elements Integration from Decision Making and Learning Cycle Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radin Umar, Radin Zaid; Sommerich, Carolyn M; Lavender, Steve A; Sanders, Elizabeth; Evans, Kevin D

    2018-05-14

    Sound workplace ergonomics and safety-related interventions may be resisted by employees, and this may be detrimental to multiple stakeholders. Understanding fundamental aspects of decision making, behavioral change, and learning cycles may provide insights into pathways influencing employees' acceptance of interventions. This manuscript reviews published literature on thinking processes and other topics relevant to decision making and incorporates the findings into two new conceptual frameworks of the workplace change adoption process. Such frameworks are useful for thinking about adoption in different ways and testing changes to traditional intervention implementation processes. Moving forward, it is recommended that future research focuses on systematic exploration of implementation process activities that integrate principles from the research literature on sensemaking, decision making, and learning processes. Such exploration may provide the groundwork for development of specific implementation strategies that are theoretically grounded and provide a revised understanding of how successful intervention adoption processes work.

  7. Supramodal parametric working memory processing in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitzer, Bernhard; Blankenburg, Felix

    2012-03-07

    Previous studies of delayed-match-to-sample (DMTS) frequency discrimination in animals and humans have succeeded in delineating the neural signature of frequency processing in somatosensory working memory (WM). During retention of vibrotactile frequencies, stimulus-dependent single-cell and population activity in prefrontal cortex was found to reflect the task-relevant memory content, whereas increases in occipital alpha activity signaled the disengagement of areas not relevant for the tactile task. Here, we recorded EEG from human participants to determine the extent to which these mechanisms can be generalized to frequency retention in the visual and auditory domains. Subjects performed analogous variants of a DMTS frequency discrimination task, with the frequency information presented either visually, auditorily, or by vibrotactile stimulation. Examining oscillatory EEG activity during frequency retention, we found characteristic topographical distributions of alpha power over visual, auditory, and somatosensory cortices, indicating systematic patterns of inhibition and engagement of early sensory areas, depending on stimulus modality. The task-relevant frequency information, in contrast, was found to be represented in right prefrontal cortex, independent of presentation mode. In each of the three modality conditions, parametric modulations of prefrontal upper beta activity (20-30 Hz) emerged, in a very similar manner as recently found in vibrotactile tasks. Together, the findings corroborate a view of parametric WM as supramodal internal scaling of abstract quantity information and suggest strong relevance of previous evidence from vibrotactile work for a more general framework of quantity processing in human working memory.

  8. Amodal processing in human prefrontal cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamber-Rosenau, Benjamin J; Dux, Paul E; Tombu, Michael N; Asplund, Christopher L; Marois, René

    2013-07-10

    Information enters the cortex via modality-specific sensory regions, whereas actions are produced by modality-specific motor regions. Intervening central stages of information processing map sensation to behavior. Humans perform this central processing in a flexible, abstract manner such that sensory information in any modality can lead to response via any motor system. Cognitive theories account for such flexible behavior by positing amodal central information processing (e.g., "central executive," Baddeley and Hitch, 1974; "supervisory attentional system," Norman and Shallice, 1986; "response selection bottleneck," Pashler, 1994). However, the extent to which brain regions embodying central mechanisms of information processing are amodal remains unclear. Here we apply multivariate pattern analysis to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data to compare response selection, a cognitive process widely believed to recruit an amodal central resource across sensory and motor modalities. We show that most frontal and parietal cortical areas known to activate across a wide variety of tasks code modality, casting doubt on the notion that these regions embody a central processor devoid of modality representation. Importantly, regions of anterior insula and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex consistently failed to code modality across four experiments. However, these areas code at least one other task dimension, process (instantiated as response selection vs response execution), ensuring that failure to find coding of modality is not driven by insensitivity of multivariate pattern analysis in these regions. We conclude that abstract encoding of information modality is primarily a property of subregions of the prefrontal cortex.

  9. Corticostriatal interactions during learning, memory processing, and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennartz, C.M.A.; Berke, J.D.; Graybiel, A.M.; Ito, R.; Lansink, C.S.; van der Meer, M.; Redish, A.D.; Smith, K.S.; Voorn, P.

    2009-01-01

    This mini-symposium aims to integrate recent insights from anatomy, behavior, and neurophysiology, highlighting the anatomical organization, behavioral significance, and information-processing mechanisms of corticostriatal interactions. In this summary of topics, which is not meant to provide a

  10. A case study of optimization in the decision process: Siting groundwater monitoring wells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardwell, H.; Huff, D.; Douthitt, J.; Sale, M.

    1993-12-01

    Optimization is one of the tools available to assist decision makers in balancing multiple objectives and concerns. In a case study of the siting decision for groundwater monitoring wells, we look at the influence of the optimization models on the decisions made by the responsible groundwater specialist. This paper presents a multi-objective integer programming model for determining the location of monitoring wells associated with a groundwater pump-and-treat remediation. After presenting the initial optimization results, we analyze the actual decision and revise the model to incorporate elements of the problem that were later identified as important in the decision-making process. The results of a revised model are compared to the actual siting plans, the recommendations from the initial optimization runs, and the initial monitoring network proposed by the decision maker

  11. The Computational Complexity of Valuation and Motivational Forces in Decision-Making Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redish, A David; Schultheiss, Nathan W; Carter, Evan C

    2016-01-01

    The concept of value is fundamental to most theories of motivation and decision making. However, value has to be measured experimentally. Different methods of measuring value produce incompatible valuation hierarchies. Taking the agent's perspective (rather than the experimenter's), we interpret the different valuation measurement methods as accessing different decision-making systems and show how these different systems depend on different information processing algorithms. This identifies the translation from these multiple decision-making systems into a single action taken by a given agent as one of the most important open questions in decision making today. We conclude by looking at how these different valuation measures accessing different decision-making systems can be used to understand and treat decision dysfunction such as in addiction.

  12. Assessing the structure of non-routine decision processes in Airline Operations Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richters, Floor; Schraagen, Jan Maarten; Heerkens, Hans

    2016-03-01

    Unfamiliar severe disruptions challenge Airline Operations Control professionals most, as their expertise is stretched to its limits. This study has elicited the structure of Airline Operations Control professionals' decision process during unfamiliar disruptions by mapping three macrocognitive activities on the decision ladder: sensemaking, option evaluation and action planning. The relationship between this structure and decision quality was measured. A simulated task was staged, based on which think-aloud protocols were obtained. Results show that the general decision process structure resembles the structure of experts working under routine conditions, in terms of the general structure of the macrocognitive activities, and the rule-based approach used to identify options and actions. Surprisingly, high quality of decision outcomes was found to relate to the use of rule-based strategies. This implies that successful professionals are capable of dealing with unfamiliar problems by reframing them into familiar ones, rather than to engage in knowledge-based processing. Practitioner Summary: We examined the macrocognitive structure of Airline Operations Control professionals' decision process during a simulated unfamiliar disruption in relation to decision quality. Results suggest that successful professionals are capable of dealing with unfamiliar problems by reframing them into familiar ones, rather than to engage in knowledge-based processing.

  13. A Framework for Investigating Influence of Organizational Decision Makers on Data Mining Process Achievement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanieh Hajisafari

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, few studies deal with evaluation of data mining plans in context of solvng organizational problems. A successful data miner is searching to solve a fully defined business problem. To make the data mining (DM results actionable, the data miner must explain them to the business insider. The interaction process between the business insiders and data miners is actually a knowledge-sharing process. In this study through representing a framwork, influence of organizational decision makers on data mining process and results investigated. By investigating research literature, the critical success factors of data mining plans was identified and the role of organizational decision makers in each step of data mining was investigated.‌ Then, the conceptual framework of influence of organizational decision makers on data mining process achievement was designed. By getting expert opinions, the proposed framework was analyzed and evantually designed the final framework of influence of organizational decision makers on data mining process achievement. Analysis of experts opinions showed that by knowledge sharing of data ming results with decision makers, "learning", "action or internalization" and "enforcing/unlearning" will become as critical success factors. Also, results of examining importance of decision makers' feedback on data mining steps showed that getting feedback from decision makers could have most influence on "knowledge extraction and representing model" step and least on "data cleaning and preprocessing" step.

  14. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian N. Marewski

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a methodological primer on how detailed cognitive architectures such as ACT-R allow remedying these problems. To make our point, we address a controversy, namely, whether noncompensatory or compensatory processes better describe how people make decisions from the accessibility of memories. We specify 39 models of accessibility-based decision processes in ACT-R, including the noncompensatory recognition heuristic and various other popular noncompensatory and compensatory decision models. Additionally, to illustrate how such models can be tested, we conduct a model comparison, fitting the models to one experiment and letting them generalize to another. Behavioral data are best accounted for by race models. These race models embody the noncompensatory recognition heuristic and compensatory models as a race between competing processes, dissolving the dichotomy between existing decision models.

  15. Social Networks as Information Source for the Purchase Decision Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Leoni Nascimento

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The social networks have caused changes in the consumption habits and in the ways of relationship among companies and consumers, emerging a more demanding and informed consumer. In this paper it is aimed to assess the social networks as a source of information for the purchase of goods or services. In the study it was applied a research of exploratory nature through the survey method, conducted through personal interviews using a questionnaire with closed-ended questions. The sample of non-probabilistic type was comprised of 200 individuals from a higher education institution of São Paulo State hinterland. The survey data were analyzed descriptively. Overall, the results showed the use of social networks as a source of information search, in which the main motive is the practicality. The results corroborate the studies of Kotler and Keller (2006 when they state that the consumer seeks information on social networks to help him in the purchase, as Edelman and Hirshberg (2006 when approaching the user confidence in their friends’ opinion. For future works it is recommended to check what strategies and in what ways the companies could work in order to provide more detailed data to Internet users, aiming to support them in the decision

  16. Decision Making Model for Business Process Outsourcing of Enterprise Content Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuojun Yi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Business process outsourcing (BPO in enterprise content management (ECM is a growing though immature market. BPO in ECM focuses on pursuing market transactions in the process of managing all types of content being used in organizations. However, inadequate sourcing decisions lead to organizational sensitive content exposure, high transaction cost, poor outsourcer performance, low flexibility. ECM BPO in general is rarely discussed in the literature and no discussion was found on decision making strategies in ECM BPO. In this paper, we present a decision making model for ECM BPO that will fill the literature gap and guide industry practitioners with ECM sourcing decision making strategies. Our proposed decision making model includes two parts. Part one is an ECM functional framework that shows what functionality component or functionality combinations can be outsourced. Part two is a decision making model that provides guidance for decision making in ECM BPO. We apply the model in two case studies, and the results indicate that the model can guide the sourcing decision making process for organizations, and determine the factors when considering sourcing alternatives in ECM.

  17. Societal rationality; towards an understanding of decision making processes in society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wahlstroem, Bjoern

    2001-01-01

    In a search for new ways to structure decision making on complex and controversial issues it is necessary to build an understanding of why traditional decision making processes break down. One reason is connected to the issues themselves. They represent steps into the unknown and decisions should therefore be made with prudence. A second reason is connected to a track record according to which new technologies are seen as generating more problems than solutions. A third and more fundamental reason is connected to the decision making processes themselves and a need to find better ways to approach difficult questions in the society. One way to approach societal decision making processes is to investigate their hidden rationality in an attempt to understand causes of observed difficulties. The paper is based mainly on observations from the nuclear industry, but it builds also on controversies experienced in attempts to agree on global efforts towards sustainable approaches to development. It builds on an earlier paper, which discussed the basis of rationality both on an individual and a societal level. Research in societal decision making has to rely on a true multi-disciplinary approach. It is nor enough to understand the technical and scientific models by which outcomes are predicted, but it is also necessary to understand how people make sense of their environment and how they co-operate. Rationality is in this connection one of the key concepts, with an understanding that people always are rational in their own frame of action. The challenge in this connection is to understand how this subjective rationality is formed. Societal rationality has to do with the allocation of resources. There are decisions in which several conflicting views have to be considered. Spending time and resources ex ante may support a consensus ex post, but unfortunately there is no panacea for approaching difficult decisions. Decisions with an uncertain future have to be more robust than

  18. Societal rationality; towards an understanding of decision making processes in society

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahlstroem, Bjoern [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2001-07-01

    In a search for new ways to structure decision making on complex and controversial issues it is necessary to build an understanding of why traditional decision making processes break down. One reason is connected to the issues themselves. They represent steps into the unknown and decisions should therefore be made with prudence. A second reason is connected to a track record according to which new technologies are seen as generating more problems than solutions. A third and more fundamental reason is connected to the decision making processes themselves and a need to find better ways to approach difficult questions in the society. One way to approach societal decision making processes is to investigate their hidden rationality in an attempt to understand causes of observed difficulties. The paper is based mainly on observations from the nuclear industry, but it builds also on controversies experienced in attempts to agree on global efforts towards sustainable approaches to development. It builds on an earlier paper, which discussed the basis of rationality both on an individual and a societal level. Research in societal decision making has to rely on a true multi-disciplinary approach. It is nor enough to understand the technical and scientific models by which outcomes are predicted, but it is also necessary to understand how people make sense of their environment and how they co-operate. Rationality is in this connection one of the key concepts, with an understanding that people always are rational in their own frame of action. The challenge in this connection is to understand how this subjective rationality is formed. Societal rationality has to do with the allocation of resources. There are decisions in which several conflicting views have to be considered. Spending time and resources ex ante may support a consensus ex post, but unfortunately there is no panacea for approaching difficult decisions. Decisions with an uncertain future have to be more robust than

  19. GREENER CHEMICAL PROCESS DESIGN ALTERNATIVES ARE REVEALED USING THE WASTE REDUCTION DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (WAR DSS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Waste Reduction Decision Support System (WAR DSS) is a Java-based software product providing comprehensive modeling of potential adverse environmental impacts (PEI) predicted to result from newly designed or redesigned chemical manufacturing processes. The purpose of this so...

  20. Assessing the Structure of Non-Routine Decision Processes in Airline Operations Control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richters, Floor; Schraagen, Johannes Martinus Cornelis; Heerkens, Johannes M.G.

    2015-01-01

    Unfamiliar severe disruptions challenge airline operations control professionals most, as their expertise is stretched to its limits. This study has elicited the structure of airline operations control professionals’ decision process during unfamiliar disruptions by mapping three macrocognitive

  1. Assessing the structure of non-routine decision processes in Airline Operations Control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richters, F.; Schraagen, J.M.C.; Heerkens, H.

    2015-01-01

    Unfamiliar severe disruptions challenge Airline Operations Control professionals most, as their expertise is stretched to its limits. This study has elicited the structure of Airline Operations Control professionals’ decision process during unfamiliar disruptions by mapping three macrocognitive

  2. Properly Applying the Military Decision Making Process in Low Intensity Conflict and Small Scale Contingencies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wilson, Todd

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to demonstrate that current doctrine, applied effectively through the Military Decision Making Process, is more than adequate to the task of providing military planners...

  3. The Needs of Hybrid Systems Configuration for Real - Time Decision - Making Process in Surgery

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tritto, G

    2001-01-01

    ...: sensors, actuators, mechatronic systems and tools in Minimally Invasive Surgery (MIS) and Microsurgery require nonlinear interpretation and control systems to interface with the computer-assisted decision making process of the surgeon at work...

  4. 20 CFR 655.1245 - Who can appeal the ALJ's decision and what is the process?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF LABOR TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT OF FOREIGN WORKERS IN THE UNITED STATES What are the Department's... what is the process? (a) The Administrator or any interested party desiring review of the decision and...

  5. Age Differences in Information Use While Making Decisions: Resource Limitations or Processing Differences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs-Lawson, Joy M; Schumacher, Mitzi M; Wackerbarth, Sarah B

    2016-09-20

    Recent research on the decision-making abilities of older adults has shown that they use less information than young adults. One explanation ascribes this age difference to reductions in cognitive abilities with age. The article includes three experimental studies that focused on determining the conditions in which older and young adults would display dissimilar information processing characteristics. Findings from Studies 1 and 2 demonstrated that older adults are not necessarily at greater disadvantage than young adults in decision contexts that demand more information processing resources. Findings from Study 3 indicated that older adults when faced with decisions that require greater processing are likely to use a strategy that reduces the amount of information needed, whereas younger adults rely on strategies that utilize more resources. Combined the findings indicate that older adults change their decision-making strategies based on the context and information provided. Furthermore, support is provided for processing difference. © The Author(s) 2016.

  6. The Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP): A Prototype Training Product

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wampler, Richard

    1998-01-01

    ...): A Prototype Training Product. The MDMP product is a computer-based, stand alone training support package to assist individuals and staffs of light infantry brigades in learning to participate in the military decision-making process...

  7. Decision Support for Software Process Management Teams: An Intelligent Software Agent Approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Church, Lori

    2000-01-01

    ... to market, eliminate redundancy, and ease job stress. This thesis proposes a conceptual model for software process management decision support in the form of an intelligent software agent network...

  8. [Woman's participation in the decision process of the pregnancy and puerperal cycle: nursing care integrative review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busanello, Josefine; Lunardi Filho, Wilson Danilo; Kerber, Nalú Pereira da Costa; Lunardi, Valéria Lerch; dos Santos, Silvana Sidnei

    2011-12-01

    This is an integrative review that aims to identify the contribution of nursing care for woman's participation in the decision process of the pregnancy and puerperal cycle, as described in Brazilian scientific publications. The scientific productions were retrieved in May, 2010, from the Virtual Library of Health (Biblioteca Virtual em Saúde) database. From the eight articles reviewed, two themes stood out: Contributions of nursing care to the woman's participation in the decision process of the pregnancy and puerperal cycle; and Limitations of nursing care to the woman's participation in the decision process of the pregnancy and puerperal cycle. The following review supports the production of knowledge in nursing, by identifying a gap in what nurses know and do about this issue, as shown by the lack of nursing researches that concern, specifically, the participation of the woman in the decision process during the pregnancy and puerperal cycle and the possible contributions of nursing care to ensure women of this right.

  9. Career Decision-Making Processes of Young Adults With First-Episode Psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boychuk, Christa; Lysaght, Rosemary; Stuart, Heather

    2018-05-01

    The first episode of psychosis often emerges during young adulthood, when individuals are pursuing important educational and career goals that can become derailed because of the development of major impairments. Past research has neglected the developmental nature of employment and education decisions that young adults with first-episode psychosis make within the context of their lives. The purpose of this grounded theory study was to advance a model of the career decision-making processes of young adults with first-episode psychosis, and the influences that affect their career decision-making. The career decision-making of young adults with first-episode psychosis emerged as a multistaged, iterative process that unfolded over three phases of illness, and was affected by several internal and environmental influences. These findings suggest the phase of illness and career decision-making stage should be considered in future vocational programming for young adults with first-episode psychosis.

  10. Fuzzy methods in decision making process - A particular approach in manufacturing systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coroiu, A. M.

    2015-11-01

    We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk

  11. Utilisation of Cost Type Information in Decision Making Process Approaches on Public Establishments

    OpenAIRE

    Mihai (Andreescu) Gabriela; Ionescu (Eftene) Nicoleta; Uta Tatiana

    2011-01-01

    Managerial decisions and decision making process stand for the key issues of each entity around which all activities of financial information collection, processing, review, construing, summarizing, and not only, gravitate within every organisation. Moreover, costs (calculation, review and optimization of such) are important as the whole activity of an organisation reflects itself in costs, respectively based on information concerning costs based on which managers may decide on purchasing, pr...

  12. PROCESSING THE INFORMATION CONTENT ON THE BASIS OF FUZZY NEURAL MODEL OF DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina V. Komleva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the issues of mathematical modeling of the decision-making process of information content processing based on the fuzzy neural network TSK. Integral rating assessment of the content, which is necessary for taking a decision about its further usage, is made depended on varying characteristics. Mechanism for building individual trajectory and forming individual competence is provided to make the intellectual content search.

  13. A Method for Speeding Up Value Iteration in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Nevin Lianwen; Lee, Stephen S.; Zhang, Weihong

    2013-01-01

    We present a technique for speeding up the convergence of value iteration for partially observable Markov decisions processes (POMDPs). The underlying idea is similar to that behind modified policy iteration for fully observable Markov decision processes (MDPs). The technique can be easily incorporated into any existing POMDP value iteration algorithms. Experiments have been conducted on several test problems with one POMDP value iteration algorithm called incremental pruning. We find that th...

  14. WORK ALLOCATION IN COMPLEX PRODUCTION PROCESSES: A METHODOLOGY FOR DECISION SUPPORT

    OpenAIRE

    de Mello, Adriana Marotti; School of Economics, Business and Accounting at the University of São Paulo; Marx, Roberto; Polytechnic School, University of São Paulo; Zilbovicius, Mauro; Polytechnic School – University of São Paulo

    2013-01-01

    This article presents the development of a Methodology of Decision Support for Work Allocation in complex production processes. It is known that this decision is frequently taken empirically and that the methodologies available to support it are few and restricted in terms of its conceptual basis. The study of Times and Motion is one of these methodologies, but its applicability is restricted in cases of more complex production processes. The method presented here was developed as a result of...

  15. Increasing a large petrochemical company efficiency by improvement of decision making process

    OpenAIRE

    Kirin Snežana D.; Nešić Lela G.

    2010-01-01

    The paper shows the results of a research conducted in a large petrochemical company, in a state under transition, with the aim to "shed light" on the decision making process from the aspect of personal characteristics of the employees, in order to use the results to improve decision making process and increase company efficiency. The research was conducted by a survey, i.e. by filling out a questionnaire specially made for this purpose, in real conditions, during working hours. The sample of...

  16. Feasibility of a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the impact of decision boxes on shared decision-making processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giguere, Anik Mc; Labrecque, Michel; Légaré, France; Grad, Roland; Cauchon, Michel; Greenway, Matthew; Haynes, R Brian; Pluye, Pierre; Syed, Iqra; Banerjee, Debi; Carmichael, Pierre-Hugues; Martin, Mélanie

    2015-02-25

    Decision boxes (DBoxes) are two-page evidence summaries to prepare clinicians for shared decision making (SDM). We sought to assess the feasibility of a clustered Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) to evaluate their impact. A convenience sample of clinicians (nurses, physicians and residents) from six primary healthcare clinics who received eight DBoxes and rated their interest in the topic and satisfaction. After consultations, their patients rated their involvement in decision-making processes (SDM-Q-9 instrument). We measured clinic and clinician recruitment rates, questionnaire completion rates, patient eligibility rates, and estimated the RCT needed sample size. Among the 20 family medicine clinics invited to participate in this study, four agreed to participate, giving an overall recruitment rate of 20%. Of 148 clinicians invited to the study, 93 participated (63%). Clinicians rated an interest in the topics ranging 6.4-8.2 out of 10 (with 10 highest) and a satisfaction with DBoxes of 4 or 5 out of 5 (with 5 highest) for 81% DBoxes. For the future RCT, we estimated that a sample size of 320 patients would allow detecting a 9% mean difference in the SDM-Q-9 ratings between our two arms (0.02 ICC; 0.05 significance level; 80% power). Clinicians' recruitment and questionnaire completion rates support the feasibility of the planned RCT. The level of interest of participants for the DBox topics, and their level of satisfaction with the Dboxes demonstrate the acceptability of the intervention. Processes to recruit clinics and patients should be optimized.

  17. [Human body meridian spatial decision support system for clinical treatment and teaching of acupuncture and moxibustion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Dehua

    2016-01-01

    The spatial position and distribution of human body meridian are expressed limitedly in the decision support system (DSS) of acupuncture and moxibustion at present, which leads to the failure to give the effective quantitative analysis on the spatial range and the difficulty for the decision-maker to provide a realistic spatial decision environment. Focusing on the limit spatial expression in DSS of acupuncture and moxibustion, it was proposed that on the basis of the geographic information system, in association of DSS technology, the design idea was developed on the human body meridian spatial DSS. With the 4-layer service-oriented architecture adopted, the data center integrated development platform was taken as the system development environment. The hierarchical organization was done for the spatial data of human body meridian via the directory tree. The structured query language (SQL) server was used to achieve the unified management of spatial data and attribute data. The technologies of architecture, configuration and plug-in development model were integrated to achieve the data inquiry, buffer analysis and program evaluation of the human body meridian spatial DSS. The research results show that the human body meridian spatial DSS could reflect realistically the spatial characteristics of the spatial position and distribution of human body meridian and met the constantly changeable demand of users. It has the powerful spatial analysis function and assists with the scientific decision in clinical treatment and teaching of acupuncture and moxibustion. It is the new attempt to the informatization research of human body meridian.

  18. Error Tendencies in Processing Student Feedback for Instructional Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schermerhorn, John R., Jr.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Seeks to assist instructors in recognizing two basic errors that can occur in processing student evaluation data on instructional development efforts; offers a research framework for future investigations of the error tendencies and related issues; and suggests ways in which instructors can confront and manage error tendencies in practice. (MBR)

  19. Motivated information processing in group judgement and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Dreu, C.K.W.; Nijstad, B.A.; van Knippenberg, D.

    2008-01-01

    This article expands the view of groups as information processors into a motivated information processing in groups (MIP-G) model by emphasizing, first, the mixedmotive structure of many group tasks and, second, the idea that individuals engage in more or less deliberate information search and

  20. Motivated information processing in group judgment and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Dreu, Carsten K. W.; Nijstad, Bernard A.; van Knippenberg, Daan

    This article expands the view of groups as information processors into a motivated information processing in groups (MIP-G) model by emphasizing, first, the mixed-motive structure of many group tasks and, second, the idea that individuals engage in more or less deliberate information search and

  1. Heuristic and optimal policy computations in the human brain during sequential decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R

    2018-01-23

    Optimal decisions across extended time horizons require value calculations over multiple probabilistic future states. Humans may circumvent such complex computations by resorting to easy-to-compute heuristics that approximate optimal solutions. To probe the potential interplay between heuristic and optimal computations, we develop a novel sequential decision-making task, framed as virtual foraging in which participants have to avoid virtual starvation. Rewards depend only on final outcomes over five-trial blocks, necessitating planning over five sequential decisions and probabilistic outcomes. Here, we report model comparisons demonstrating that participants primarily rely on the best available heuristic but also use the normatively optimal policy. FMRI signals in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) relate to heuristic and optimal policies and associated choice uncertainties. Crucially, reaction times and dorsal MPFC activity scale with discrepancies between heuristic and optimal policies. Thus, sequential decision-making in humans may emerge from integration between heuristic and optimal policies, implemented by controllers in MPFC.

  2. Process-tracing methods in decision making: on growing up in the 70s

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M.; Johnson, J.G.; Böckenholt, U.; Goldstein, D.G.; Russo, J.E.; Sullivan, N.J.; Willemsen, M.C.

    2017-01-01

    Decision research has experienced a shift from simple algebraic theories of choice to an appreciation of mental processes underlying choice. A variety of process-tracing methods has helped researchers test these process explanations. Here, we provide a survey of these methods, including specific

  3. Reward processing and intertemporal decision making in adults and adolescents: the role of impulsivity and decision consistency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripke, Stephan; Hübner, Thomas; Mennigen, Eva; Müller, Kathrin U; Rodehacke, Sarah; Schmidt, Dirk; Jacob, Mark J; Smolka, Michael N

    2012-10-10

    Several studies report differences between adults and adolescents in reward processing and impulsivity. Consistently, adolescents are more impulsive in their decision making, as measured by intertemporal choice tasks. Since impulsivity affects an individual's perception and neural processing of rewards, it is unclear whether previously reported differences in brain activation between adults and adolescents are primarily due to maturation of the brain reward system or differences in impulsivity (i.e. discounting behaviour). To disentangle this, we analysed data from 235 adolescents and 29 adults who performed an intertemporal choice task in which monetary rewards were adapted to individual impulsivity. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we measured brain activity and assessed impulsivity and consistency of choices at the behavioural level. Although adolescents discounted delayed rewards more steeply than adults, when controlling for impulsivity, neural processing of reward value did not differ between groups. However, more impulsive subjects showed a lower brain response to delayed rewards, independent of age. Concerning decision making, adolescents exhibited a lower consistency of choices and less brain activity in the parietal network than adults. We conclude that processing of the value of prospective delayed rewards is more sensitive to discounting behaviour than to chronological age. Lower consistency of intertemporal choices might indicate ongoing maturation of parietal brain areas in adolescents. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk perception and decision processes underlying informed consent to research participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, William W; Nelson, Robert M

    2007-11-01

    According to the rational choice model, informed consent should consist of a systematic, step-by-step evaluation of all information pertinent to the treatment or research participation decision. Research shows that people frequently deviate from this normative model, however, employing decision-making shortcuts, or heuristics. In this paper we report findings from a qualitative study of 32 adolescents and (their) 31 parents who were recruited from two Northeastern US hospitals and asked to consider the risks of and make hypothetical decisions about research participation. The purpose of this study was to increase our understanding of how diabetic and at-risk adolescents (i.e., those who are obese and/or have a family history of diabetes) and their parents perceive risks and make decisions about research participation. Using data collected from adolescents and parents, we identify heuristic decision processes in which participant perceptions of risk magnitude, which are formed quickly and intuitively and appear to be based on affective responses to information, are far more prominent and central to the participation decision than are perceptions of probability. We discuss participants' use of decision-making heuristics in the context of recent research on affect and decision processes, and we consider the implications of these findings for researchers.

  5. Disrupted latent decision processes in medication-free pediatric OCD patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erhan, Ceyla; Bulut, Gresa Çarkaxhiu; Gökçe, Sebla; Ozbas, Duru; Turkakin, Esin; Dursun, Onur Burak; Yazgan, Yanki; Balcı, Fuat

    2017-01-01

    Decision-making in Obsessive Compulsive Disorder has typically been investigated in the adult population. Computational approaches have recently started to get integrated into these studies. However, decision-making research in pediatric OCD populations is scarce. We investigated latent decision processes in 21 medication-free pediatric OCD patients and 23 healthy control participants. We hypothesized that OCD patients would be more cautious and less efficient in evidence accumulation than controls in a two alternative forced choice (2AFC) task. Pediatric OCD patients were less efficient than controls in accumulating perceptual evidence and showed a tendency to be more cautious. In comparison to post-correct decisions, OCD patients increased decision thresholds after erroneous decisions, whereas healthy controls decreased decision thresholds. These changes were coupled with weaker evidence accumulation after errors in both groups. The small sample size limited the power of the study. Our results demonstrate poorer decision-making performance in pediatric OCD patients at the level of latent processes, specifically in terms of evidence accumulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Advancing in the Career Decision-Making Process: The Role of Coping Strategies and Career Decision-Making Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Maya; Gati, Itamar

    2017-01-01

    We tested the associations among the career decision-making difficulties, the career decision status, and either (a) the career decision-making profiles of 575 young adults, or (b) the coping strategies of 379 young adults. As hypothesized, a more advanced decision status was negatively associated with both career decision-making difficulties…

  7. How Are Distributed Groups Affected by an Imposed Structuring of their Decision-Making Process?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundell, Anders Lorentz; Hertzum, Morten

    2011-01-01

    Groups often suffer from ineffective communication and decision making. This experimental study compares distributed groups solving a preference task with support from either a communication system or a system providing both communication and a structuring of the decision-making process. Results...... show that groups using the latter system spend more time solving the task, spend more of their time on solution analysis, spend less of their time on disorganized activity, and arrive at task solutions with less extreme preferences. Thus, the type of system affects the decision-making process as well...... as its outcome. Notably, the task solutions arrived at by the groups using the system that imposes a structuring of the decision-making process show limited correlation with the task solutions suggested by the system on the basis of the groups’ explicitly stated criteria. We find no differences in group...

  8. The Production of Green Identities in Garbage Can Decision-making Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Backer, Lise

    of organisational identities to the model. Within the scientific field of business and the environment the article contributes to a new understanding of the relationship between decision-making, green organisational identities and the process of social construction of business opportunities. This relationship can...... the decision has happened. Thus, in the process of accounting for their decision the corporations are not just accounting for a particular decision, but also in a general sense contributing to socially constructing anew what can be considered a business opportunity - also for other corporations....... In this process of socially constructing new business opportunities the corporations are drawing on cultural sources not just from the field of rhetoric of economics, but also from other cultural sources within the business sector and the society as such....

  9. Value encoding in single neurons in the human amygdala during decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenison, Rick L; Rangel, Antonio; Oya, Hiroyuki; Kawasaki, Hiroto; Howard, Matthew A

    2011-01-05

    A growing consensus suggests that the brain makes simple choices by assigning values to the stimuli under consideration and then comparing these values to make a decision. However, the network involved in computing the values has not yet been fully characterized. Here, we investigated whether the human amygdala plays a role in the computation of stimulus values at the time of decision making. We recorded single neuron activity from the amygdala of awake patients while they made simple purchase decisions over food items. We found 16 amygdala neurons, located primarily in the basolateral nucleus that responded linearly to the values assigned to individual items.

  10. Learning to maximize reward rate: a model based on semi-Markov decision processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodadadi, Arash; Fakhari, Pegah; Busemeyer, Jerome R

    2014-01-01

    WHEN ANIMALS HAVE TO MAKE A NUMBER OF DECISIONS DURING A LIMITED TIME INTERVAL, THEY FACE A FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM: how much time they should spend on each decision in order to achieve the maximum possible total outcome. Deliberating more on one decision usually leads to more outcome but less time will remain for other decisions. In the framework of sequential sampling models, the question is how animals learn to set their decision threshold such that the total expected outcome achieved during a limited time is maximized. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework for answering this question. To this end, we consider an experimental design in which each trial can come from one of the several possible "conditions." A condition specifies the difficulty of the trial, the reward, the penalty and so on. We show that to maximize the expected reward during a limited time, the subject should set a separate value of decision threshold for each condition. We propose a model of learning the optimal value of decision thresholds based on the theory of semi-Markov decision processes (SMDP). In our model, the experimental environment is modeled as an SMDP with each "condition" being a "state" and the value of decision thresholds being the "actions" taken in those states. The problem of finding the optimal decision thresholds then is cast as the stochastic optimal control problem of taking actions in each state in the corresponding SMDP such that the average reward rate is maximized. Our model utilizes a biologically plausible learning algorithm to solve this problem. The simulation results show that at the beginning of learning the model choses high values of decision threshold which lead to sub-optimal performance. With experience, however, the model learns to lower the value of decision thresholds till finally it finds the optimal values.

  11. The application of the heuristic-systematic processing model to treatment decision making about prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steginga, Suzanne K; Occhipinti, Stefano

    2004-01-01

    The study investigated the utility of the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model as a framework for the investigation of patient decision making. A total of 111 men recently diagnosed with localized prostate cancer were assessed using Verbal Protocol Analysis and self-report measures. Study variables included men's use of nonsystematic and systematic information processing, desire for involvement in decision making, and the individual differences of health locus of control, tolerance of ambiguity, and decision-related uncertainty. Most men (68%) preferred that decision making be shared equally between them and their doctor. Men's use of the expert opinion heuristic was related to men's verbal reports of decisional uncertainty and having a positive orientation to their doctor and medical care; a desire for greater involvement in decision making was predicted by a high internal locus of health control. Trends were observed for systematic information processing to increase when the heuristic strategy used was negatively affect laden and when men were uncertain about the probabilities for cure and side effects. There was a trend for decreased systematic processing when the expert opinion heuristic was used. Findings were consistent with the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model and suggest that this model has utility for future research in applied decision making about health.

  12. CorRECTreatment: a web-based decision support tool for rectal cancer treatment that uses the analytic hierarchy process and decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suner, A; Karakülah, G; Dicle, O; Sökmen, S; Çelikoğlu, C C

    2015-01-01

    The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians' decision making. The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer. The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set. In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratiodecisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step. The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options.

  13. Toward theoretical understanding of the fertility preservation decision-making process: Examining information processing among young women with cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hershberger, Patricia E.; Finnegan, Lorna; Altfeld, Susan; Lake, Sara; Hirshfeld-Cytron, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    Background Young women with cancer now face the complex decision about whether to undergo fertility preservation. Yet little is known about how these women process information involved in making this decision. Objective The purpose of this paper is to expand theoretical understanding of the decision-making process by examining aspects of information processing among young women diagnosed with cancer. Methods Using a grounded theory approach, 27 women with cancer participated in individual, semi-structured interviews. Data were coded and analyzed using constant-comparison techniques that were guided by five dimensions within the Contemplate phase of the decision-making process framework. Results In the first dimension, young women acquired information primarily from clinicians and Internet sources. Experiential information, often obtained from peers, occurred in the second dimension. Preferences and values were constructed in the third dimension as women acquired factual, moral, and ethical information. Women desired tailored, personalized information that was specific to their situation in the fourth dimension; however, women struggled with communicating these needs to clinicians. In the fifth dimension, women offered detailed descriptions of clinician behaviors that enhance or impede decisional debriefing. Conclusion Better understanding of theoretical underpinnings surrounding women’s information processes can facilitate decision support and improve clinical care. PMID:24552086

  14. Toward theoretical understanding of the fertility preservation decision-making process: examining information processing among young women with cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hershberger, Patricia E; Finnegan, Lorna; Altfeld, Susan; Lake, Sara; Hirshfeld-Cytron, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Young women with cancer now face the complex decision about whether to undergo fertility preservation. Yet little is known about how these women process information involved in making this decision. The purpose of this article is to expand theoretical understanding of the decision-making process by examining aspects of information processing among young women diagnosed with cancer. Using a grounded theory approach, 27 women with cancer participated in individual, semistructured interviews. Data were coded and analyzed using constant-comparison techniques that were guided by 5 dimensions within the Contemplate phase of the decision-making process framework. In the first dimension, young women acquired information primarily from clinicians and Internet sources. Experiential information, often obtained from peers, occurred in the second dimension. Preferences and values were constructed in the third dimension as women acquired factual, moral, and ethical information. Women desired tailored, personalized information that was specific to their situation in the fourth dimension; however, women struggled with communicating these needs to clinicians. In the fifth dimension, women offered detailed descriptions of clinician behaviors that enhance or impede decisional debriefing. Better understanding of theoretical underpinnings surrounding women's information processes can facilitate decision support and improve clinical care.

  15. Reasoning, learning, and creativity: frontal lobe function and human decision-making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Collins

    Full Text Available The frontal lobes subserve decision-making and executive control--that is, the selection and coordination of goal-directed behaviors. Current models of frontal executive function, however, do not explain human decision-making in everyday environments featuring uncertain, changing, and especially open-ended situations. Here, we propose a computational model of human executive function that clarifies this issue. Using behavioral experiments, we show that unlike others, the proposed model predicts human decisions and their variations across individuals in naturalistic situations. The model reveals that for driving action, the human frontal function monitors up to three/four concurrent behavioral strategies and infers online their ability to predict action outcomes: whenever one appears more reliable than unreliable, this strategy is chosen to guide the selection and learning of actions that maximize rewards. Otherwise, a new behavioral strategy is tentatively formed, partly from those stored in long-term memory, then probed, and if competitive confirmed to subsequently drive action. Thus, the human executive function has a monitoring capacity limited to three or four behavioral strategies. This limitation is compensated by the binary structure of executive control that in ambiguous and unknown situations promotes the exploration and creation of new behavioral strategies. The results support a model of human frontal function that integrates reasoning, learning, and creative abilities in the service of decision-making and adaptive behavior.

  16. Reasoning, learning, and creativity: frontal lobe function and human decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Anne; Koechlin, Etienne

    2012-01-01

    The frontal lobes subserve decision-making and executive control--that is, the selection and coordination of goal-directed behaviors. Current models of frontal executive function, however, do not explain human decision-making in everyday environments featuring uncertain, changing, and especially open-ended situations. Here, we propose a computational model of human executive function that clarifies this issue. Using behavioral experiments, we show that unlike others, the proposed model predicts human decisions and their variations across individuals in naturalistic situations. The model reveals that for driving action, the human frontal function monitors up to three/four concurrent behavioral strategies and infers online their ability to predict action outcomes: whenever one appears more reliable than unreliable, this strategy is chosen to guide the selection and learning of actions that maximize rewards. Otherwise, a new behavioral strategy is tentatively formed, partly from those stored in long-term memory, then probed, and if competitive confirmed to subsequently drive action. Thus, the human executive function has a monitoring capacity limited to three or four behavioral strategies. This limitation is compensated by the binary structure of executive control that in ambiguous and unknown situations promotes the exploration and creation of new behavioral strategies. The results support a model of human frontal function that integrates reasoning, learning, and creative abilities in the service of decision-making and adaptive behavior.

  17. Detecting fast, online reasoning processes in clinical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Amanda; Cobos, Pedro L; López, Francisco J; Godoy, Antonio

    2014-06-01

    In an experiment that used the inconsistency paradigm, experienced clinical psychologists and psychology students performed a reading task using clinical reports and a diagnostic judgment task. The clinical reports provided information about the symptoms of hypothetical clients who had been previously diagnosed with a specific mental disorder. Reading times of inconsistent target sentences were slower than those of control sentences, demonstrating an inconsistency effect. The results also showed that experienced clinicians gave different weights to different symptoms according to their relevance when fluently reading the clinical reports provided, despite the fact that all the symptoms were of equal diagnostic value according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text rev.; American Psychiatric Association, 2000). The diagnostic judgment task yielded a similar pattern of results. In contrast to previous findings, the results of the reading task may be taken as direct evidence of the intervention of reasoning processes that occur very early, rapidly, and online. We suggest that these processes are based on the representation of mental disorders and that these representations are particularly suited to fast retrieval from memory and to making inferences. They may also be related to the clinicians' causal reasoning. The implications of these results for clinician training are also discussed.

  18. Psychiatric service staff perceptions of implementing a shared decision-making tool: a process evaluation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schön, Ulla-Karin; Grim, Katarina; Wallin, Lars; Rosenberg, David; Svedberg, Petra

    2018-12-01

    Shared decision making, SDM, in psychiatric services, supports users to experience a greater sense of involvement in treatment, self-efficacy, autonomy and reduced coercion. Decision tools adapted to the needs of users have the potential to support SDM and restructure how users and staff work together to arrive at shared decisions. The aim of this study was to describe and analyse the implementation process of an SDM intervention for users of psychiatric services in Sweden. The implementation was studied through a process evaluation utilizing both quantitative and qualitative methods. In designing the process evaluation for the intervention, three evaluation components were emphasized: contextual factors, implementation issues and mechanisms of impact. The study addresses critical implementation issues related to decision-making authority, the perceived decision-making ability of users and the readiness of the service to increase influence and participation. It also emphasizes the importance of facilitation, as well as suggesting contextual adaptations that may be relevant for the local organizations. The results indicate that staff perceived the decision support tool as user-friendly and useful in supporting participation in decision-making, and suggest that such concrete supports to participation can be a factor in implementation if adequate attention is paid to organizational contexts and structures.

  19. The Hinkley Point decision: An analysis of the policy process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    In 2006, the British government launched a policy to build nuclear power reactors based on a claim that the power produced would be competitive with fossil fuel and would require no public subsidy. A decade later, it is not clear how many, if any, orders will be placed and the claims on costs and subsidies have proved false. Despite this failure to deliver, the policy is still being pursued with undiminished determination. The finance model that is now proposed is seen as a model other European countries can follow so the success or otherwise of the British nuclear programme will have implications outside the UK. This paper contends that the checks and balances that should weed out misguided policies, have failed. It argues that the most serious failure is with the civil service and its inability to provide politicians with high quality advice – truth to power. It concludes that the failure is likely to be due to the unwillingness of politicians to listen to opinions that conflict with their beliefs. Other weaknesses include the lack of energy expertise in the media, the unwillingness of the public to engage in the policy process and the impotence of Parliamentary Committees. - Highlights: •Britain's nuclear power policy is failing due to high costs and problems of finance. •This has implications for European countries who want to use the same financing model. •The continued pursuit of a failing policy is due to poor advice from civil servants. •Lack of expertise in the media and lack of public engagement have contributed. •Parliamentary processes have not provided proper critical scrutiny.

  20. Processes of decision making on energy issues: micro and macro analysis (the case of Poland 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Iwińska

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Article tackles the idea of environmental and participatory democracy in Poland. Due to Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters known as the Aarhus Convention people should be involved in decisions concerning environment and energy issues in the country. All large investments, and those are certainly investments in energy infrastructure, are associated with a variety of interest groups and organizations. The main goal of this article is to show the decision making processes do not come across the knowledge and public information on nuclear energy in Poland. We present the context and background for the structural model of energy decisions using and reinterpreting survey data from 2014 and 2015 from the opinion polls on various sources of energy in Poland. From this point of departure we distinguish the micro-, meso- and macro- level of energy decisions.

  1. Facilitators and constraints at each stage of the migration decision process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kley, Stefanie

    2017-10-01

    Behavioural models of migration emphasize the importance of migration decision-making for the explanation of subsequent behaviour. But empirical migration research regularly finds considerable gaps between those who intend to migrate and those who actually realize their intention. This paper applies the Theory of Planned Behaviour, enriched by the Rubicon model, to test specific hypotheses about distinct effects of facilitators and constraints on specific stages of migration decision-making and behaviour. The data come from a tailor-made panel survey based on random samples of people drawn from two German cities in 2006-07. The results show that in conventional models the effects of facilitators and constraints on migration decision-making are likely to be underestimated. Splitting the process of migration decision-making into a pre-decisional and a pre-actional phase helps to avoid bias in the estimated effects of facilitators and constraints on both migration decision-making and migration behaviour.

  2. Decision support systems in water and wastewater treatment process selection and design: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamouda, M A; Anderson, W B; Huck, P M

    2009-01-01

    The continuously changing drivers of the water treatment industry, embodied by rigorous environmental and health regulations and the challenge of emerging contaminants, necessitates the development of decision support systems for the selection of appropriate treatment trains. This paper explores a systematic approach to developing decision support systems, which includes the analysis of the treatment problem(s), knowledge acquisition and representation, and the identification and evaluation of criteria controlling the selection of optimal treatment systems. The objective of this article is to review approaches and methods used in decision support systems developed to aid in the selection, sequencing of unit processes and design of drinking water, domestic wastewater, and industrial wastewater treatment systems. Not surprisingly, technical considerations were found to dominate the logic of the developed systems. Most of the existing decision-support tools employ heuristic knowledge. It has been determined that there is a need to develop integrated decision support systems that are generic, usable and consider a system analysis approach.

  3. MoCog1: A computer simulation of recognition-primed human decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gevarter, William B.

    1991-01-01

    The results of the first stage of a research effort to develop a 'sophisticated' computer model of human cognitive behavior are described. Most human decision making is an experience-based, relatively straight-forward, largely automatic response to internal goals and drives, utilizing cues and opportunities perceived from the current environment. The development of the architecture and computer program (MoCog1) associated with such 'recognition-primed' decision making is discussed. The resultant computer program was successfully utilized as a vehicle to simulate earlier findings that relate how an individual's implicit theories orient the individual toward particular goals, with resultant cognitions, affects, and behavior in response to their environment.

  4. Cortical and hippocampal correlates of deliberation during model-based decisions for rewards in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron M Bornstein

    Full Text Available How do we use our memories of the past to guide decisions we've never had to make before? Although extensive work describes how the brain learns to repeat rewarded actions, decisions can also be influenced by associations between stimuli or events not directly involving reward - such as when planning routes using a cognitive map or chess moves using predicted countermoves - and these sorts of associations are critical when deciding among novel options. This process is known as model-based decision making. While the learning of environmental relations that might support model-based decisions is well studied, and separately this sort of information has been inferred to impact decisions, there is little evidence concerning the full cycle by which such associations are acquired and drive choices. Of particular interest is whether decisions are directly supported by the same mnemonic systems characterized for relational learning more generally, or instead rely on other, specialized representations. Here, building on our previous work, which isolated dual representations underlying sequential predictive learning, we directly demonstrate that one such representation, encoded by the hippocampal memory system and adjacent cortical structures, supports goal-directed decisions. Using interleaved learning and decision tasks, we monitor predictive learning directly and also trace its influence on decisions for reward. We quantitatively compare the learning processes underlying multiple behavioral and fMRI observables using computational model fits. Across both tasks, a quantitatively consistent learning process explains reaction times, choices, and both expectation- and surprise-related neural activity. The same hippocampal and ventral stream regions engaged in anticipating stimuli during learning are also engaged in proportion to the difficulty of decisions. These results support a role for predictive associations learned by the hippocampal memory system to

  5. Integrated preventive maintenance and production decisions for imperfect processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nourelfath, Mustapha; Nahas, Nabil; Ben-Daya, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    This paper integrates production, maintenance, and quality for an imperfect process in a multi-period multi-product capacitated lot-sizing context. The production system is modeled as an imperfect machine, whose the status is considered to be either in-control or out-of-control. When the machine is out of control, it produces a fraction of nonconforming items. During each period, this machine is inspected and imperfect preventive maintenance activities are simultaneously performed to reduce its age, proportional to the preventive maintenance level. The objective is to minimize the total cost, while satisfying the demand for all products. Our optimization model allows for a joint selection of the optimal values of production plan, and the maintenance policy, while taking into account quality related costs. A solution algorithm is developed and illustrative numerical examples are presented. It is found that the increase in PM level leads to reductions in quality control costs. Furthermore, if the cost of performing PM is high to the point where it is not compensated for by reductions in the quality related costs, then performing PM is not justifiable. Finally, using non-periodic preventive maintenance with the possibility of different preventive maintenance levels may result in an improvement of the total cost. - Highlights: • We integrate production, maintenance, and quality. • We evaluate all the expected costs. • Our model allows for a joint selection of the optimal values. • A solution algorithm is developed. • Increasing PM level will decrease quality control costs.

  6. The consequences of introducing IT systems for decision-making processes in healthcare institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzena Furtak-Niczyporuk

    2017-03-01

      Aim: The aim of the study was the diagnosis of management decision-making in the therapeutic entity, for possible implementation tools in the form of an information system, which could accelerate and support the rational process of making those decisions. In addition, work was to evaluate the role of management decisions and the implications of the information system on the process of rational decision-making in the management entity therapeutic.   Material and Methods: The case study method allowed us to show the practical applications and benefits resulting from the application system to support rational decision-making management, in particular in terms of reducing costs and improving the organization of health services offered.   The results and conclusions: Presented system generates a database to support rational decision-making process in the field of management, minimize their costs while improving the organization of health services. Ability to use various functions of the system allows for multi-segment analysis, thanks to the specially chosen and condensed information, both in the form of text and graphics over any time horizon. Benefits of the implications of the system is the speed and efficiency of the whole process of treatment, as well as the reduction of administrative tasks of medical staff, which increases the time for the patient.

  7. Factors affecting long-term-care residents' decision-making processes as they formulate advance directives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Heather C; McColl, Mary Ann; Gilbert, Julie; Wong, Jiahui; Murray, Gale; Shortt, Samuel E D

    2005-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe factors contributing to the decision-making processes of elderly persons as they formulate advance directives in long-term care. This study was qualitative, based on grounded theory. Recruitment was purposive and continued until saturation was reached. Nine residents of a long-term-care facility were interviewed by use of a semistructured format. Open and axial coding of interview transcripts were carried out and the factors contributing to the decision process were defined. Elders based their decisions primarily on information gathered from personal experiences with death and illness. They obtained very little information from professionals or the media. Major factors considered by elders as they weighed information included spiritual, emotional, and social considerations. The factors considered during the decision-making process were oriented more toward the individual's experiences and less on contributions from objective sources than anticipated. Decision making for advance directives is a highly personalized process. The approach of health professionals when assisting with end-of-life decision making should be planned with these contributing factors in mind, so that the services offered to the individuals in this population best meet their needs.

  8. Predicting human decisions in socioeconomic interaction using real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (rtfMRI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollmann, Maurice; Mönch, Tobias; Müller, Charles; Bernarding, Johannes

    2009-02-01

    A major field in cognitive neuroscience investigates neuronal correlates of human decision-making processes [1, 2]. Is it possible to predict a decision before it is actually revealed by the volunteer? In the presented manuscript we use a standard paradigm from economic behavioral research that proved emotional influences on human decision making: the Ultimatum Game (UG). In the UG, two players have the opportunity to split a sum of money. One player is deemed the proposer and the other, the responder. The proposer makes an offer as to how this money should be split between the two. The second player can either accept or reject this offer. If it is accepted, the money is split as proposed. If rejected, then neither player receives anything. In the presented study a real-time fMRI system was used to derive the brain activation of the responder. Using a Relevance-Vector-Machine classifier it was possible to predict if the responder will accept or reject an offer. The classification result was presented to the operator 1-2 seconds before the volunteer pressed a button to convey his decision. The classification accuracy reached about 70% averaged over six subjects.

  9. Development of the NRC's Human Performance Investigation Process (HPIP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paradies, M.; Unger, L.; Haas, P.; Terranova, M.

    1993-10-01

    The three volumes of this report detail a standard investigation process for use by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) personnel when investigating human performance related events at nuclear power plants. The process, called the Human Performance Investigation Process (HPIP), was developed to meet the special needs of NRC personnel, especially NRC resident and regional inspectors. HPIP is a systematic investigation process combining current procedures and field practices, expert experience, NRC human performance research, and applicable investigation techniques. The process is easy to learn and helps NRC personnel perform better field investigations of the root causes of human performance problems. The human performance data gathered through such investigations provides a better understanding of the human performance issues that cause events at nuclear power plants. This document, Volume I is a concise description of the need for the human performance investigation process, the process' components, the methods used to develop the process, the methods proposed to test the process, and conclusions on the process' usefulness

  10. Proglucagon processing in porcine and human pancreas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, J J; Bersani, M; Johnsen, A H

    1994-01-01

    In the pancreas proglucagon (PG), a peptide precursor of 160 amino acids is cleaved to produce glucagon and a 30-amino acid N-terminal flanking peptide, but the fate of the C-terminal flanking peptide (99 amino acids) is incompletely known. We subjected acid ethanol extracts of human and porcine...... pancreases to gel filtration and analyzed the fractions with specific radioimmunoassays for the following regions of proglucagon: PG 62-69, PG 72-81, PG 78-87, PG 98-107 amide, PG 126-134, and PG 149-158. Based on these assays and successive purifications by high performance liquid chromatography we isolated...... PG 72-158 = 9971) was isolated from human pancreas together with small amounts of a peptide corresponding to PG 72-107 amide. Thus, the pancreatic processing of the C-terminal flanking peptide in proglucagon includes the formation of equimolar (to glucagon) amounts of PG 64-69 and PG 72-158 (major...

  11. Dissociable Learning Processes Underlie Human Pain Conditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Suyi; Mano, Hiroaki; Ganesh, Gowrishankar; Robbins, Trevor; Seymour, Ben

    2016-01-11

    Pavlovian conditioning underlies many aspects of pain behavior, including fear and threat detection [1], escape and avoidance learning [2], and endogenous analgesia [3]. Although a central role for the amygdala is well established [4], both human and animal studies implicate other brain regions in learning, notably ventral striatum and cerebellum [5]. It remains unclear whether these regions make different contributions to a single aversive learning process or represent independent learning mechanisms that interact to generate the expression of pain-related behavior. We designed a human parallel aversive conditioning paradigm in which different Pavlovian visual cues probabilistically predicted thermal pain primarily to either the left or right arm and studied the acquisition of conditioned Pavlovian responses using combined physiological recordings and fMRI. Using computational modeling based on reinforcement learning theory, we found that conditioning involves two distinct types of learning process. First, a non-specific "preparatory" system learns aversive facial expressions and autonomic responses such as skin conductance. The associated learning signals-the learned associability and prediction error-were correlated with fMRI brain responses in amygdala-striatal regions, corresponding to the classic aversive (fear) learning circuit. Second, a specific lateralized system learns "consummatory" limb-withdrawal responses, detectable with electromyography of the arm to which pain is predicted. Its related learned associability was correlated with responses in ipsilateral cerebellar cortex, suggesting a novel computational role for the cerebellum in pain. In conclusion, our results show that the overall phenotype of conditioned pain behavior depends on two dissociable reinforcement learning circuits. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Going it Alone or Working as Part of a Team: The Impact of Human Capital on Entrepreneurial Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther Hormiga

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper endeavours to measure the effect that human capital has on the decision taken by the entrepreneur to pursue new venture creation either in a lone capacity or collaboratively. Based on a survey of 130 entrepreneurs from 130 new ventures in Canary Island, Spain, this study applies a logit model to investigate the research relationships. The results show that three factors (experience, social perception and extrinsic motivation are significant in the decision to initiate a new venture either in a lone capacity or as part of a collaborative undertaking. The results indicate that previous experience holds the greatest significance on the decision taken by entrepreneurs to ‘go it alone’, with factors relating to social perception and extrinsic motivation chiefly predicting a decision to work collaboratively. The findings of this study provide new insight and evidence with regard to the factors that influence a key decision in the start-up process: that of continuing in a lone capacity, or proceeding as part of an entrepreneurial team.

  13. Human monitoring and decision-making in man/machine systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johannsen, G.

    1979-01-01

    Monitoring and decision-making together are very well characterizing the role of the human operator in highly automated systems. In this report, the analysis of human monitoring and decision-making behavior as well as its modeling are described. The goal is to present a survey. 'Classic' and optimal control theoretic monitoring models are dealt with. The relationship between attention allocation and eye movements is discussed. As an example for applications, the evaluation of predictor displays by means of the optimal control model is explained. Fault detection in continuous signals and decision-making behavior of the human operator in fault diagnosis during different operation and maintenance situations are illustrated. The computer-aided decision-making is considered as a queueing problem. It is shown to what extent computer-aiding may be based on the state of human activity as measured by psychophysiological quantities. Finally, management information systems for different application areas are mentioned. As an appendix, the report includes an English-written paper in which the possibilities of mathematical modeling of human behavior in complex man-machine systems are critically assessed. (orig.) 891 GL/orig. 892 MKO [de

  14. THE FEATURES OF THE PROCESS OF MANAGERIAL DECISION-MAKING IN THE ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Romanovskaya

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses issues related to the development and acceptance of administrative decisions in the enterprise. The large number of publications in the field of research of the process of managerial decision-making demonstrates its relevance for effective management of the enterprise. The article presents the author's approach to the disclosure of the nature and concepts of the term «management decision», a substantive analysis of the main elements of the theoretical aspect of managerial decision-making. The increased competition associated with market liberalization and globalization of world economy, requires from senior management of an effective control system. The authors revised classification criteria and allocated them accordingly the kinds of management decisions; identifies the main stages of development and adoption of management decisions. The article is devoted to finding new ways of making decisions to improve the efficiency of enterprise management. It is noted that for optimal decision making, it is required to calculate the impact of its implementation on the value of the enterprise as a whole or the size of its economic effect.

  15. Theory of mind and decision-making processes are impaired in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Chunhua; Zhu, Youling; Mu, Yanfang; Chen, Bing; Dong, Bin; Cheng, Huaidong; Hu, Panpan; Zhu, Chunyan; Wang, Kai

    2015-02-15

    Prefrontal cortex plays a vital role in the theory of mind (ToM) and decision making, as shown in functional brain imaging and lesion studies. Considering the primary neuropathology of Parkinson's disease (PD) involving the frontal lobe system, patients with PD are expected to exhibit deficits in ToM and social decision making. The aim of this study was to investigate affective ToM and decision making in patients with PD and healthy controls (HC) in a task assessing affective ToM (Reading the Mind in the Eyes, RME) and two decision-making tasks (Iowa Gambling Task, IGT; Game of Dice Task, GDT). Consistent with previous findings, patients with PD were impaired in the affective ToM task, and when making decisions under ambiguity and in risk situations. The score of emotion recognition in the RME task was negatively correlated with the severity of the disease and positively correlated with the total number of advantageous cards chosen in the IGT. However, the final capital in the GDT was correlated with memory impairment. The present study implies that affective ToM and decision making under ambiguity may share similar neural mechanisms, while decision making under ambiguity and decision making under risk may involve processing within different neural networks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Decision-making process to shut down, refurbish/modify, or decommission research reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stover, R.L.; Murphie, W.E.

    1992-01-01

    Most US research reactors were built more than 20 years ago and some more than 40 years ago. Many have undergone refurbishments and modifications to update their safety systems and experimental capabilities. But changing safety bases, social concerns, and budget constraints have required research reactor operators to continually make decisions to shut down or refurbish/modify their facilities. These decisions involve potential replacement of reactor equipment that has reached its lifetime limits. Changes in philosophy and operation of the reactors are also factors to be considered. In this paper, each of the four factors involved in the decision-making process are discussed in detail. Then, several examples from DOE research reactors in the United States are discussed. Finally, some general conclusions are given to aid in the decision-making process

  17. Decision support for selecting exportable nuclear technology using the analytic hierarchy process: A Korean case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Deok Joo; Hwang, Jooho

    2010-01-01

    The Korean government plans to increase strategically focused R and D investment in some promising nuclear technology areas to create export opportunities of technology in a global nuclear market. The purpose of this paper is to present a decision support process for selecting promising nuclear technology with the perspective of exportability by using the AHP based on extensive data gathered from nuclear experts in Korea. In this study, the decision criteria for evaluating the export competitiveness of nuclear technologies were determined, and a hierarchical structure for the decision-making process was systematically developed. Subsequently relative weights of decision criteria were derived using AHP methodology and the export competitiveness of nuclear technology alternatives was quantified to prioritize them. We discuss the implications of our results with a viewpoint toward national nuclear technology policy.

  18. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  19. Human Modeling for Ground Processing Human Factors Engineering Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stambolian, Damon B.; Lawrence, Brad A.; Stelges, Katrine S.; Steady, Marie-Jeanne O.; Ridgwell, Lora C.; Mills, Robert E.; Henderson, Gena; Tran, Donald; Barth, Tim

    2011-01-01

    There have been many advancements and accomplishments over the last few years using human modeling for human factors engineering analysis for design of spacecraft. The key methods used for this are motion capture and computer generated human models. The focus of this paper is to explain the human modeling currently used at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to explain the future plans for human modeling for future spacecraft designs

  20. NPPO-TINA: An expert system acting as catalyst for decision-making processes of the reactor operator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gieci, A.; Gyarfas, F.

    1991-01-01

    The prototype of the NPPO-TINA expert system (Nuclear Power Plant Operation-Transparent Inference Architecture) is described. This system has been developed to support the entire decision-making intellectual activity in the control of complex technological processes. One of the ways leading to human-machine symbiosis in the integrated cognitive system is outlined. The starting model of the situation in which the operator's problem-solving task begins is described. The characteristics of human behavior in decision-making are analyzed, and the moments are explained of the most suitable use of the expert system to support the whole intellectual activity, in knowledge-based decision-making by way of problem solving. The TINA environment for the formation of expert systems is described, including the hierarchic dynamic inference control. The process of building up the NPPO-TINA expert system is outlined, and the results of testing the system prototype on the problem of an accident of the nuclear power plant primary circuit due to a failure of the coolant make-up pumps are given. (Z.S.). 10 figs., 11 refs

  1. An Analysis of the Associations among Cognitive Impulsiveness, Reasoning Process, and Rational Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jelihovschi, Ana P. G.; Cardoso, Ricardo L.; Linhares, Alexandre

    2018-01-01

    Impulsivity may lead to several unfortunate consequences and maladaptive behaviors for both clinical and nonclinical people. It has a key role in many forms of psychopathology. Although literature has discussed the negative impact of impulsivity, few have emphasized the relationship between cognitive impulsiveness and decision making. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of cognitive impulsiveness on decision making and explore the strategies used by participants to solve problems. For this purpose, we apply two measures of impulsivity: the self-report Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11) and the performance based Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). Moreover, we evaluate participants' reasoning processes employed to answer CRT questions based on the calculation expressions, data organization, and erasures they made while answering the CRT (note that we utilized the instruments using pen and paper). These reasoning processes are related to the role of executive functions in decision making, and its relationship with impulsiveness. The sample consists of 191 adults, who were either professionals or undergraduate students from the fields of business, management, or accounting. The results show that cognitive impulsiveness may negatively affect decision making, and that those who presented the calculation to answer the CRT questions made better decisions. Moreover, there was no difference in the strategies used by impulsive vs. nonimpulsive participants during decision making. Finally, people who inhibited their immediate answers to CRT questions performed better during decision making. PMID:29375440

  2. An Analysis of the Associations among Cognitive Impulsiveness, Reasoning Process, and Rational Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jelihovschi, Ana P G; Cardoso, Ricardo L; Linhares, Alexandre

    2017-01-01

    Impulsivity may lead to several unfortunate consequences and maladaptive behaviors for both clinical and nonclinical people. It has a key role in many forms of psychopathology. Although literature has discussed the negative impact of impulsivity, few have emphasized the relationship between cognitive impulsiveness and decision making. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of cognitive impulsiveness on decision making and explore the strategies used by participants to solve problems. For this purpose, we apply two measures of impulsivity: the self-report Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11) and the performance based Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). Moreover, we evaluate participants' reasoning processes employed to answer CRT questions based on the calculation expressions, data organization, and erasures they made while answering the CRT (note that we utilized the instruments using pen and paper). These reasoning processes are related to the role of executive functions in decision making, and its relationship with impulsiveness. The sample consists of 191 adults, who were either professionals or undergraduate students from the fields of business, management, or accounting. The results show that cognitive impulsiveness may negatively affect decision making, and that those who presented the calculation to answer the CRT questions made better decisions. Moreover, there was no difference in the strategies used by impulsive vs. nonimpulsive participants during decision making. Finally, people who inhibited their immediate answers to CRT questions performed better during decision making.

  3. An Analysis of the Associations among Cognitive Impulsiveness, Reasoning Process, and Rational Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana P. G. Jelihovschi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Impulsivity may lead to several unfortunate consequences and maladaptive behaviors for both clinical and nonclinical people. It has a key role in many forms of psychopathology. Although literature has discussed the negative impact of impulsivity, few have emphasized the relationship between cognitive impulsiveness and decision making. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of cognitive impulsiveness on decision making and explore the strategies used by participants to solve problems. For this purpose, we apply two measures of impulsivity: the self-report Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11 and the performance based Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT. Moreover, we evaluate participants' reasoning processes employed to answer CRT questions based on the calculation expressions, data organization, and erasures they made while answering the CRT (note that we utilized the instruments using pen and paper. These reasoning processes are related to the role of executive functions in decision making, and its relationship with impulsiveness. The sample consists of 191 adults, who were either professionals or undergraduate students from the fields of business, management, or accounting. The results show that cognitive impulsiveness may negatively affect decision making, and that those who presented the calculation to answer the CRT questions made better decisions. Moreover, there was no difference in the strategies used by impulsive vs. nonimpulsive participants during decision making. Finally, people who inhibited their immediate answers to CRT questions performed better during decision making.

  4. Getting ocean acidification on decision makers' to-do lists: dissecting the process through case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooley, Sarah R.; Jewett, Elizabeth B.; Reichert, Julie; Robbins, Lisa L.; Shrestha, Gyami; Wieczorek, Dan; Weisberg, Stephen B.

    2015-01-01

    Much of the detailed, incremental knowledge being generated by current scientific research on ocean acidification (OA) does not directly address the needs of decision makers, who are asking broad questions such as: Where will OA harm marine resources next? When will this happen? Who will be affected? And how much will it cost? In this review, we use a series of mainly US-based case studies to explore the needs of local to international-scale groups that are making decisions to address OA concerns. Decisions concerning OA have been made most naturally and easily when information needs were clearly defined and closely aligned with science outputs and initiatives. For decisions requiring more complex information, the process slows dramatically. Decision making about OA is greatly aided (1) when a mixture of specialists participates, including scientists, resource users and managers, and policy and law makers; (2) when goals can be clearly agreed upon at the beginning of the process; (3) when mixed groups of specialists plan and create translational documents explaining the likely outcomes of policy decisions on ecosystems and natural resources; (4) when regional work on OA fits into an existing set of priorities concerning climate or water quality; and (5) when decision making can be reviewed and enhanced.

  5. From life cycle analysis approach to monetarisation of the impacts: an evaluation in term of decision process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darras, M.

    2002-01-01

    The life cycle analysis offers a new tool in the direction of integration of the multiple physical flows of matters around industrial processes and products, including the usage stage. Simultaneously, it stresses the multidimensional impact of the human activities, first in term of physical flows, but then in term of impact on the goals stated above. In this perspective, integrating framework for decision are needed, especially at the more global level. One of the proposed frameworks is the monetarisation and cost-benefit analysis, as an extension of the quantitative economy. The multi-dimensional choice, unfit for strict order choice, is reduce to one variable.In the presentation below, because of the importance of this approach in connection with Life Cycle Analysis and public policies, we concentrate on the;analysis of this framework. We will show that it might shed light on the decision process, especially if associated with its uncertainties, its limits in term of process or criteria taken into account, the indication of other social criteria not taken into account, and other method of evaluation. At the end, this is mainly a source for a better multi-criteria decision process. (author)

  6. Performance Feedback Utility in a Small Organization: Effects on Organizational Outcomes and Managerial Decision Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florin-Thuma, Beth C.; Boudreau, John W.

    1987-01-01

    Investigated the frequent but previously untested assertion that utility analysis can improve communication and decision making about human resource management programs by examining a performance feedback intervention in a small fast-food store. Results suggest substantial payoffs from performance feedback, though the store's owner-managers had…

  7. A Review of Previous Studies on Information Processing in Career Decision Making among University Students

    OpenAIRE

    池田, 智子; Satoko, Ikeda

    2018-01-01

    This review of the researches of career choice of Japanese university students focused the studies on decision-making theory conducted in Japan. The present review suggested the necessity of examination of the effect of self-efficacy about career information search on the process of career choice. It is also needed to examine the relationship between specific self-efficacy about career information search and career decision-making self-efficacy, moreover, general self-efficacy.

  8. Effects of Hispanic Ethnic Identification on Marital Roles in the Purchase Decision Process.

    OpenAIRE

    Webster, Cynthia

    1994-01-01

    The research reported in this article investigated the relationship between Hispanic ethnic identification and marital roles as couples proceed through the purchase decision process. Significant differences were found among the Hispanic ethnic identification groups in most of the decision stages for a variety of product categories, even after the effects of social class and length of marriage were removed. The findings of this study revealed a significant positive relationship between ethnic ...

  9. The purchase decision process and involvement of the elderly regarding nonprescription products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisenwitz, T H; Wimbish, G J

    1997-01-01

    The elderly or senior citizen is a large and growing market segment that purchases a disproportionate amount of health care products, particularly nonprescription products. This study attempts to examine the elderly's level of involvement (high versus low) and their purchase decision process regarding nonprescription or over-the-counter (OTC) products. Frequencies and percentages are calculated to indicate level of involvement as well as purchase decision behavior. Previous research is critiqued and managerial implications are discussed.

  10. Individual behavioral and neurochemical markers of unadapted decision-making processes in healthy inbred mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittaras, Elsa; Callebert, Jacques; Chennaoui, Mounir; Rabat, Arnaud; Granon, Sylvie

    2016-12-01

    One of the hallmarks of decision-making processes is the inter-individual variability between healthy subjects. These behavioral patterns could constitute risk factors for the development of psychiatric disorders. Therefore, finding predictive markers of safe or risky decision-making is an important challenge for psychiatry research. We set up a mouse gambling task (MGT)-adapted from the human Iowa gambling task with uncertain contingencies between response and outcome that furthermore enables the emergence of inter-individual differences. Mice (n = 54) were further individually characterized for locomotive, emotional and cognitive behavior. Individual basal rates of monoamines and brain activation after the MGT were assessed in brain regions related to reward, emotion or cognition. In a large healthy mice population, 44 % showed a balanced strategy with limited risk-taking and flexible choices, 29 % showed a safe but rigid strategy, while 27 % adopted risky behavior. Risky mice took also more risks in other apparatus behavioral devices and were less sensitive to reward. No difference existed between groups regarding anxiety, working memory, locomotion and impulsivity. Safe/rigid mice exhibited a hypoactivation of prefrontal subareas, a high level of serotonin in the orbitofrontal cortex combined with a low level of dopamine in the putamen that predicted the emergence of rigid behavior. By contrast, high levels of dopamine, serotonin and noradrenalin in the hippocampus predicted the emergence of more exploratory and risky behaviors. The coping of C57bl/6J mice in MGT enables the determination of extreme patterns of choices either safe/rigid or risky/flexible, related to specific neurochemical and behavioral markers.

  11. HUMAN GLOMERULAR VOLUME QUANTIFICATIONDURING THE AGING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Zdravković

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Kidney function is directly related to the changes of renal tissue, especially glomeruli, which is particularly distinct during the aging process. The impossibility of kidney function substitution points to the need for glomerular morphologic and functional characteristics estimation during the aging process.Human cadaveric kidney tissue samples were used as material during research. Age of cadavers ranged from 20 to 70 years and they were classified according to the scheme: I (20–29; II (30–39; III (40–49; IV (50–59; V (60–69 i VI (older than 70. After the routine histologic preparation of the renal tissue the slices were analized stereologicaly under the light microscope with projection screen (Reichert Visopan with 40 x lens magnification. M42 test system was used and 100, by unbased method selected glomeruli, were analyzed.Average glomerular capillary network volume shows significant increase (p< 0,001 as far as to the age of 50 years in regard to the age of 20 to 29 years. This parameter shows insignificant decrease after the age of 50 until the age of 70 years. This decrease was significant after the age of 70 years in regard to the period of the 20 to 29 (p< 0,05 and the period of 40 to 49 years (p<0,01.

  12. A HUMAN FACTORS ENGINEERING PROCESS TO SUPPORT HUMAN-SYSTEM INTERFACE DESIGN IN CONTROL ROOM MODERNIZATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kovesdi, C.; Joe, J.; Boring, R.

    2017-05-01

    The primary objective of the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program is to sustain operation of the existing commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) through a multi-pathway approach in conducting research and development (R&D). The Advanced Instrumentation, Information, and Control (II&C) System Technologies pathway conducts targeted R&D to address aging and reliability concerns with legacy instrumentation and control (I&C) and other information systems in existing U.S. NPPs. Control room modernization is an important part following this pathway, and human factors experts at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have been involved in conducting R&D to support migration of new digital main control room (MCR) technologies from legacy analog and legacy digital I&C. This paper describes a human factors engineering (HFE) process that supports human-system interface (HSI) design in MCR modernization activities, particularly with migration of old digital to new digital I&C. The process described in this work is an expansion from the LWRS Report INL/EXT-16-38576, and is a requirements-driven approach that aligns with NUREG-0711 requirements. The work described builds upon the existing literature by adding more detail around key tasks and decisions to make when transitioning from HSI Design into Verification and Validation (V&V). The overall objective of this process is to inform HSI design and elicit specific, measurable, and achievable human factors criteria for new digital technologies. Upon following this process, utilities should have greater confidence with transitioning from HSI design into V&V.

  13. Multi-criteria decision making in product-driven process synthesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridder, de K.; Almeida-Rivera, C.; Bongers, P.M.M.; Bruin, S.; Flapper, S.D.P.; Braunschweig, B.; Joulia, X.

    2008-01-01

    Current efforts in the development of a Product-driven Process Synthesis methodology have been focusing on broadening the design scope to consumer preferences, product attributes, process variables and supply chain considerations. The methodology embraces a decision making activity to be performed

  14. An integrated Markov decision process and nested logit consumer response model of air ticket pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, J.; Feng, T.; Timmermans, H.P.J.; Yang, Z.

    2017-01-01

    The paper attempts to propose an optimal air ticket pricing model during the booking horizon by taking into account passengers' purchasing behavior of air tickets. A Markov decision process incorporating a nested logit consumer response model is established to modeling the dynamic pricing process.

  15. Anticipatory Emotions in Decision Tasks: Covert Markers of Value or Attentional Processes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Tyler; Love, Bradley C.; Maddox, W. Todd

    2009-01-01

    Anticipatory emotions precede behavioral outcomes and provide a means to infer interactions between emotional and cognitive processes. A number of theories hold that anticipatory emotions serve as inputs to the decision process and code the value or risk associated with a stimulus. We argue that current data do not unequivocally support this…

  16. Utilising Benchmarking to Inform Decision-Making at the Institutional Level: A Research-Informed Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Sara

    2013-01-01

    Benchmarking has traditionally been viewed as a way to compare data only; however, its utilisation as a more investigative, research-informed process to add rigor to decision-making processes at the institutional level is gaining momentum in the higher education sector. Indeed, with recent changes in the Australian quality environment from the…

  17. The Decision to Form the Kangan Committee--A Case Study in the Educational Policy Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, John

    1983-01-01

    The postsecondary education policymaking process in Australia, rather than being goal-oriented and rational, is a series of adjustments to existing policy dictated by political expediency, often over many years and changes of government and leading to decisions reflecting unstable origins. This committee's broad influences illustrate this process.…

  18. Characterizing the Buyer Decision Process: the ZMOT model in Chile’s technology sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Escobar Farfán

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an updated application model that identifies the intervening factors in the buyer decision process. In traditional research, the consumer is said to confront two moments of truth before making the decision to buy: first, when encountering the gondola, and then again while experiencing the product. Nevertheless, innovations in information technology have modified this traditional view to include the “Zero Moment of Truth”, known as ZMOT, a name popularized by Google. This analysis is based on the concept of the Zero Moment of Truth which relates to the process that consumers live prior to the purchase decision in which they gather information about the product or service. This study is justified by the absence of research on the ZMOT concept in Chile. To determine the factors involved in the purchase decision, a quantitative methodology was used, through the application of a survey that analyzed three perspectives: the influencing factors during the purchase decision, the activities carried out during the ZMOT, and, finally, the actions carried out after the completion of the purchase and information that will serve for future buyers is gathered. With the data obtained, an exploratory factor analysis was carried out, generating a preliminary multi-dimensional model to describe the factors in the buyer decision process during the information and experience gathering phase known as ZMOT.

  19. Bangkok's mass rapid transit system's commuter decision-making process in using integrated smartcards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peerakan Kaewwongwattana

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper studied the decision-making process to use an integrated smartcard ticketing system by Bangkok metropolitan transit commuters. A second-order Confirmatory Factor Analysis using LISREL 9.10 was undertaken on Bangkok commuter's decision-making process on the use of an integrated smartcard system. The sample consisted of 300 Bangkok commuters obtained by accidental sampling using questionnaires with a 5-point Likert scale. The tools in the research questionnaires used scale estimation that achieved a confidence value of 0.84. The research instruments used rating scales measuring information search, alternative choices, and use decision on the 15 variables in the decision-making process which had factor loadings between 0.49 and 0.89 weight elements when sorted in descending order and overall had a high level. Use decision, alternative choices and information search had a factor of 0.89, 0.65 and 0.49, respectively. There was a good fit of the decision-making model to the empirical data (chi-square = 34.55, probability (p = 0.94, df = 49, RMSEA = 0.00, GFI = 0.98, AGFI = 0.96, SRMR = 0.04.

  20. Social processes used by African American women in making decisions about mammography screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Barbara Ann

    2006-01-01

    To describe the social processes used by African American (AA) women ages > or = 50 years in making decisions about mammography screening. Grounded theory methodology. Tape-recorded interviews with a researcher-designed, semi-structured interview guide with an initial and theoretical sample of 30 AA women ages 52 to 71 of diverse socioeconomic status. Interviews occurred in various settings such as the church rectory, women's homes, and work settings. Extensive written field notes and tapes were transcribed verbatim immediately after the interviews by an experienced transcriptionist. The women's decisions about mammography screening were associated with five social processes: (a) acknowledging prior experiences with healthcare providers and systems; (b) reporting fears and fatalistic beliefs of breast cancer and related treatment; (c) valuing the opinions of significant others; (d) relying on religious beliefs and supports; and (e) caregiving responsibilities of significant others. The processes were further differentiated by three distinct decision-making styles: taking charge, enduring, and protesting. Each of the social processes was reported equally and emphasized by the diverse sample of AA women in decisions related to mammography screening. Mammography screening decisions were heavily influenced by caregiving responsibilities. Further research is needed to explain and understand this social process on the health and well-being of AA women over time.