Sample records for honduras population dynamics
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Genetic structure of Plasmodium falciparum populations across the Honduras-Nicaragua border.
Larrañaga, Nerea; Mejía, Rosa E; Hormaza, José I; Montoya, Alberto; Soto, Aida; Fontecha, Gustavo A
2013-10-04
The Caribbean coast of Central America remains an area of malaria transmission caused by Plasmodium falciparum despite the fact that morbidity has been reduced in recent years. Parasite populations in that region show interesting characteristics such as chloroquine susceptibility and low mortality rates. Genetic structure and diversity of P. falciparum populations in the Honduras-Nicaragua border were analysed in this study. Seven neutral microsatellite loci were analysed in 110 P. falciparum isolates from endemic areas of Honduras (n = 77) and Nicaragua (n = 33), mostly from the border region called the Moskitia. Several analyses concerning the genetic diversity, linkage disequilibrium, population structure, molecular variance, and haplotype clustering were conducted. There was a low level of genetic diversity in P. falciparum populations from Honduras and Nicaragua. Expected heterozigosity (H(e)) results were similarly low for both populations. A moderate differentiation was revealed by the F(ST) index between both populations, and two putative clusters were defined through a structure analysis. The main cluster grouped most of samples from Honduras and Nicaragua, while the second cluster was smaller and included all the samples from the Siuna community in Nicaragua. This result could partially explain the stronger linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the parasite population from that country. These findings are congruent with the decreasing rates of malaria endemicity in Central America.
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Population data for 12 Y-chromosome STR loci in a sample from Honduras.
Matamoros, Mireya; Yurrebaso, Iñaki; Gusmão, Leonor; García, Oscar
2009-09-01
Haplotype, allele frequencies and population data of 12 Y-chromosome STR loci DYS19, DYS385, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS437, DYS438 and DYS439 were determined from a sample of 128 unrelated male individuals from Honduras, Central America. A total of 112 haplotypes were identified by the 12 Y-STR loci of which 98 were unique. The haplotype diversity (98.99%) and the proportion of different haplotypes (87.50%) were estimated. Genetic distances were calculated between Honduras and other populations from Southern and Central America, Europe and Africa. The analysis of a Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) plot, based on pairwise R(ST) genetic distances, allowed to conclude that Honduras is highly differentiated from the African samples (0.343Honduras showed a lower genetic distance to the European cluster (composed by European and South American general population samples from Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Venezuela) than to the Central American cluster (Mexico and El Salvador).
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Surnames in Honduras: A study of the population of Honduras through isonymy.
Herrera Paz, Edwin Francisco; Scapoli, Chiara; Mamolini, Elisabetta; Sandri, Massimo; Carrieri, Alberto; Rodriguez-Larralde, Alvaro; Barrai, Italo
2014-05-01
In this work, we investigated surname distribution in 4,348,021 Honduran electors with the aim of detecting population structure through the study of isonymy in three administrative levels: the whole nation, the 18 departments, and the 298 municipalities. For each administrative level, we studied the surname effective number, α, the total inbreeding, FIT , the random inbreeding, FST , and the local inbreeding, FIS . Principal components analysis, multidimensional scaling, and cluster analysis were performed on Lasker's distance matrix to detect the direction of surname diffusion and for a graphic representation of the surname relationship between different locations. The values of FIT , FST , and FIS display a variation of random inbreeding between the administrative levels in the Honduras population, which is attributed to the "Prefecture effect." Multivariate analyses of department data identified two main clusters, one south-western and the second north-eastern, with the Bay Islands and the eastern Gracias a Dios out of the main clusters. The results suggest that currently the population structure of this country is the result of the joint action of short-range directional migration and drift, with drift dominating over migration, and that population diffusion may have taken place mainly in the NW-SE direction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/University College London.
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Rapid ongoing decline of Baird's tapir in Cusuco National Park, Honduras.
McCANN, Niall P; Wheeler, Phil M; Coles, Tim; Bruford, Michael W
2012-12-01
During the International Tapir Symposium 16-21 Oct 2011, the conservation of Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) in Honduras received a boost with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Minister Director of the Honduran Institute of Conservation and Forestry (ICF) and the Tapir Specialist Group (TSG). Despite this agreement, accelerating levels of hunting and habitat loss continue to pose a threat to Baird's tapir in Honduras. An ongoing study in Cusuco National Park in northwestern Honduras has been monitoring changes in population dynamics of Baird's tapir since 2006 through the collection of occupancy data. The study has identified an increase in hunting pressure, coinciding with a drastic decline in the encounter rate with Baird's tapir spoor. Here, we examine the significance of a range of demographic variables on Baird's tapir occupancy in Cusuco National Park using the software PRESENCE, and simulate the effects of different management strategies on the future dynamics of the population using the stochastic simulation software VORTEX. The predictions of the theoretical population models are compared to observed changes in occupancy levels. We found that non-intervention resulted in the local extinction of Baird's tapir within a very short time frame, but that various intervention models enabled the population to recover to near carrying capacity. Occupancy and extinction probability were shown to respond markedly to the increase in hunting pressure; and occupancy models supported the future population predictions generated by VORTEX. Our study suggests that immediate intervention is required to reduce hunting pressure to near historical levels to prevent the imminent local extinction of the species. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.
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Kim, Andrea A; Morales, Sonia; Lorenzana de Rivera, Ivette; Paredes, Mayte; Juarez, Sandra; Alvarez, Berta; Liu, Xin; Parekh, Bharat; Monterroso, Edgar; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela
2013-03-01
Honduras has one of the highest HIV prevalence rates in Central America. Data on HIV incidence are needed to identify groups at greatest need of prevention interventions to inform the national HIV response. We applied a test for recent infection to HIV-positive specimens from a biological and behavioral survey to estimate assay-derived incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW), and the Garifuna population in Honduras. Assay-derived estimates were compared to the mathematically modeled estimates in the same populations to assess plausibility of the assay-based estimates. Assay-derived incidence was 1.1% (95% CI 0.2-2.0) among MSM, 0.4% (95% CI 0.1-0.8) among the Garifuna, and 0% (95% CI 0-0.01) among FSWs. The modeled incidence estimates were similar at 1.03% among MSM, 0.30% among the Garifuna, and 0.23% among FSWs. HIV incidence based on the assay was highest among MSM in Honduras, lowest among FSWs, and similar to modeled incidence in these groups. Targeted programs on HIV prevention, care, and treatment are urgently needed for the MSM population. Continued support for existing prevention programs for FSWs and Garifuna are recommended.
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Alternative Education Programmes and Middle School Dropout in Honduras
Marshall, Jeffery H.; Aguilar, Claudia R.; Alas, Mario; Castellanos, Renán Rápalo; Castro, Levi; Enamorado, Ramón; Fonseca, Esther
2014-01-01
Honduras has made steady progress in expanding post-primary school coverage in recent years, but many rural communities still do not provide a middle (lower secondary) school. As a result, Honduras has implemented a number of middle school alternative programmes designed to meet the needs of at-risk populations throughout the country. This article…
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Gandhi, Anisha D; Pettifor, Audrey; Barrington, Clare; Marshall, Stephen W; Behets, Frieda; Guardado, Maria Elena; Farach, Nasim; Ardón, Elvia; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela
2015-09-01
The Garífuna, an ethnic minority group in Honduras, have been disproportionately affected by HIV. Previous research suggests that migration and high rates of multiple sexual partnerships are major drivers of the epidemic. Using data from a 2012 population-based survey, we assessed whether temporary migration was associated with (1) multiple sexual partnerships and (2) sexual concurrency among Garífuna men and women in Honduras. Among both men and women, temporary migration in the last year was associated with an increased likelihood of multiple sexual partnerships and with concurrency, though only the association between migration and multiple sexual partnerships among men was statistically significant (Adjusted Prevalence Ratio 1.7, 95 % CI 1.2-2.4). Migration may contribute to HIV/STI vulnerability among Garífuna men and women via increases in these sexual risk behaviors. Research conducted among men and women at elevated risk of HIV should continue to incorporate measures of mobility, including history of internal migration.
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1989-09-01
Honduras is a country with an area of 68,000 square miles, with considerable mountainous terrain, and a subtropical but variable climate. It has a population of 4.4 million people and an annual growth rate of 3.1%. The ethnic make up is 90% mestizo, a mixture of Indian and European, with others consisting of Arab, African, oriental, and Indians. The main religion is Catholic with a fast growing Protestant minority, and the language is Spanish. Infant mortality is 60/1000 and life expectancy is 63 years. The work force is mainly agricultural 63%, services 20%, manufacturing 9%, and construction 3%. The government is a democratic constitutional republic established in 1821. The budget is $1,334 million with 7% used for defense, and the gross national product is $4.4 billion with an annual growth rate of 4.5%. Despite being poor and underdeveloped, natural resources include arable land, hydro- electric power, and considerable forest, marine, and mineral resources. Agriculture products include coffee, bananas, citrus fruit, corn, beans, and livestock. The major industries are textiles, cement, wood products, cigars and foodstuffs. Unemployment is over 15% and underemployment is estimated over 40% with the literacy rate at only 60%. In the last few years with US aid the economy has grown 3.8% a year assisted by mining, construction and the service sectors. Honduras must undertake major economic reforms to gain longterm growth and stability since it has large fiscal and trade deficits, a large public bureaucracy, poorly run state enterprises and overvalued exchange rate.
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Genetic diversity of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in Honduras.
Lopez, Ana Cecilia; Ortiz, Andres; Coello, Jorge; Sosa-Ochoa, Wilfredo; Torres, Rosa E Mejia; Banegas, Engels I; Jovel, Irina; Fontecha, Gustavo A
2012-11-26
Understanding the population structure of Plasmodium species through genetic diversity studies can assist in the design of more effective malaria control strategies, particularly in vaccine development. Central America is an area where malaria is a public health problem, but little is known about the genetic diversity of the parasite's circulating species. This study aimed to investigate the allelic frequency and molecular diversity of five surface antigens in field isolates from Honduras. Five molecular markers were analysed to determine the genotypes of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum from endemic areas in Honduras. Genetic diversity of ama-1, msp-1 and csp was investigated for P. vivax, and msp-1 and msp-2 for P. falciparum. Allelic frequencies were calculated and sequence analysis performed. A high genetic diversity was observed within Plasmodium isolates from Honduras. A different number of genotypes were elucidated: 41 (n = 77) for pvama-1; 23 (n = 84) for pvcsp; and 23 (n = 35) for pfmsp-1. Pvcsp sequences showed VK210 as the only subtype present in Honduran isolates. Pvmsp-1 (F2) was the most polymorphic marker for P. vivax isolates while pvama-1 was least variable. All three allelic families described for pfmsp-1 (n = 30) block 2 (K1, MAD20, and RO33), and both allelic families described for the central domain of pfmsp-2 (n = 11) (3D7 and FC27) were detected. However, K1 and 3D7 allelic families were predominant. All markers were randomly distributed across the country and no geographic correlation was found. To date, this is the most complete report on molecular characterization of P. vivax and P. falciparum field isolates in Honduras with regards to genetic diversity. These results indicate that P. vivax and P. falciparum parasite populations are highly diverse in Honduras despite the low level of transmission.
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Alternative education programmes and middle school dropout in Honduras
Marshall, Jeffery H.; Aguilar, Claudia R.; Alas, Mario; Castellanos, Renán Rápalo; Castro, Levi; Enamorado, Ramón; Fonseca, Esther
2014-05-01
Honduras has made steady progress in expanding post-primary school coverage in recent years, but many rural communities still do not provide a middle (lower secondary) school. As a result, Honduras has implemented a number of middle school alternative programmes designed to meet the needs of at-risk populations throughout the country. This article analyses dropout in three of the four main alternative lower secondary school programmes in Honduras over a three-year period for a cohort of roughly 5,500 students. The results show that these programmes are indeed reaching a vulnerable population in the country, but dropout rates are generally very high - upwards of 50 per cent in some cases - between Grades 7 and 9. Furthermore, even in the control school comparison samples made up of formal lower secondary schools, about 25 per cent of children leave school between Grades 7 and 9. The authors' analysis includes propensity score matching (PSM) methods that make more focused comparisons between students in alternative programmes and control samples. These results show that dropout rates in alternative programmes are not much different than in control schools, and only significant in one programme comparison, when taking into account family background characteristics like socioeconomic status (SES). Multivariate analysis within alternative programme samples finds that attrition is lower in those learning centres which have adopted key features of formal schools, such as university-educated teachers. The results highlight the tremendous variation in the alternative middle school sector in terms of programme features, school quality and student outcomes, as well as the challenges of expanding this sector to meet the growing demand for lower secondary schooling in Honduras.
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Legal framework: Renewables in Honduras
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matute, Leonardo
2000-01-01
The paper describes the framework (organic structure and legislation) in promotion of renewables in Honduras, the policies for promotion of the free market of energy, laws on environmental protection and law of electricity. Also describes treties and agreements suscribed by Honduras in these matters
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FY16 Honduras Country Opinion Survey Report
World Bank Group
2016-01-01
The Country Opinion Survey in Honduras assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in gaining a better understanding of how stakeholders in Honduras perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Honduras on 1) their views regarding the general environment ...
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Harborne, A R; Afzal, D C; Andrews, M J
2001-12-01
The coast of Honduras, Central America, represents the southern end of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System, although its marine resources are less extensive and studied than nearby Belize and Mexico. However, the coastal zone contains mainland reef formations, mangroves, wetlands, seagrass beds and extensive fringing reefs around its offshore islands, and has a key role in the economy of the country. Like most tropical areas, this complex of benthic habitats experiences limited annual variation in climatic and oceanographic conditions but seasonal and occasional conditions, particularly coral bleaching and hurricanes, are important influences. The effects of stochastic factors on the country's coral reefs were clearly demonstrated during 1998 when Honduras experienced a major hurricane and bleaching event. Any natural or anthropogenic impacts on reef health will inevitably affect other countries in Latin America, and vice versa, since the marine resources are linked via currents and the functioning of the system transcends political boundaries. Much further work on, for example, movement of larvae and transfer of pollutants is required to delineate the full extent of these links. Anthropogenic impacts, largely driven by the increasing population and proportion of people living in coastal areas, are numerous and include key factors such as agricultural run-off, over-fishing, urban and industrial pollution (particularly sewage) and infrastructure development. Many of these threats act synergistically and, for example, poor watershed management via shifting cultivation, increases sedimentation and pesticide run-off onto coral reefs, which increases stress to corals already affected by decreasing water quality and coral bleaching. Threats from agriculture and fishing are particularly significant because of the size of both industries. The desire to generate urgently required revenue within Honduras has also led to increased tourism which provides an overarching stress
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Harborne, Alastair R.; Afzal, Daniel C.; Andrews, Mark J. [Coral Cay Conservation, London (United Kingdom)
2001-07-01
The coast of Honduras, Central America, represents the southern end of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System, although its marine resources are less extensive and studied than nearby Belize and Mexico. However, the coastal zone contains mainland reef formations, mangroves, wetlands, seagrass beds and extensive fringing reefs around its offshore islands, and has a key role in the economy of the country. Like most tropical areas, this complex of benthic habitats experiences limited annual variation in climatic and oceanographic conditions but seasonal and occasional conditions, particularly coral bleaching and hurricanes, are important influences. The effects of stochastic factors on the country's coral reefs were clearly demonstrated during 1998 when Honduras experienced a major hurricane and bleaching event. Any natural or anthropogenic impacts on reef health will inevitably affect other countries in Latin America, and vice versa, since the marine resources are linked via currents and the functioning of the system transcends political boundaries. Much further work on, for example, movement of larvae and transfer of pollutants is required to delineate the full extent of these links. Anthropogenic impacts, largely driven by the increasing population and proportion of people living in coastal areas, are numerous and include key factors such as agricultural run-off, over-fishing, urban and industrial pollution (particularly sewage) and infrastructure development. Many of these threats act synergistically and, for example, poor watershed management via shifting cultivation, increases sedimentation and pesticide run-off onto coral reefs, which increases stress to corals already affected by decreasing water quality and coral bleaching. Threats from agriculture and fishing are particularly significant because of the size of both industries. The desire to generate urgently required revenue within Honduras has also led to increased tourism which provides an over
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Nesting Ecology of Hawksbill Sea Turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) on Utila, Honduras
Damazo, Lindsey Renee Eggers
The hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) has a circumtropical distribution and plays an important role in maintaining the health of coral reefs. Unfortunately, hawksbill populations have been decimated, and estimated numbers in the Caribbean are less than 10% of populations a century ago. The hawksbill is considered Critically Endangered, and researchers are coordinating worldwide efforts to protect this species. One country where we lack knowledge regarding hawksbills is Honduras. This study aimed to increase our understanding of hawksbill nesting ecology in Caribbean Honduras. Characteristics of hawksbill nesting activity and a nesting beach on the island of Utila were elucidated using satellite telemetry, beach profiling, vegetation surveys, beach monitoring, and nest temperature profiles. We affixed satellite transmitters to two nesting hawksbills, and found the turtles migrated to different countries. One turtle traveled 403 km to a bay in Mexico, and the other traveled 181 km to a Marine Protected Area off Belize. This study presents the first description of hawksbill migration routes from Honduras, facilitating protection efforts for turtles that traverse international waters. To investigate nesting beach and turtle characteristics, we conducted beach monitoring during the 2012 nesting season. Nesting turtle carapace sizes were similar to worldwide values, but hatchlings were heavier. To measure nest temperatures, we placed thermocouple data loggers in four nests and four pseudo-nests. Data suggested metabolic heating may be maintaining nest temperatures above the pivotal temperature. However, large temperature fluctuations corresponding to rainfall from Hurricane Ernesto (as determined using a time series cross-correlation analysis) make it difficult to predict sex ratios, and underscore the impact stochastic events can have on nest temperatures. We created topographic and substrate profiles of the beach, and found it was 475 m long, yet hawksbills
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Tracking financial flows for immunization in Honduras.
Valdés, Werner; Janusz, Cara Bess; Molina Aguilera, Ida Berenice; Mendoza, Lourdes; Díaz, Iris Yolanda; Resch, Stephen
2015-05-07
In Honduras, until 2008, vaccine and injection supplies were financed with domestic resources. With the introduction of rotavirus vaccine in 2009 and pneumococcal conjugate in 2011, the country's Expanded Program on Immunization required an influx of resources to support not only vaccine procurement but also investments in cold chain infrastructure and programmatic strategies. This paper examines the origin, allocation, and use of resources for immunization in 2011 in Honduras, with the aim of identifying gaps in financing. An adaptation of the System of Health Accounts (2011) codes was used to specifically track resources for immunization services in Honduras for 2011. All financial flows were entered into an Excel database, and each transfer of resources was coded with a financing source and a financing agent. These coded financing sources were then distributed by provider, health care function (activity), health care provision (line item or resource input), and beneficiary (geographic, population, and antigen). All costs were calculated in 2011 United States dollars. In 2011, financing for routine immunization in Honduras amounted to US$ 49.1 million, which is equal to 3.3% of the total health spending of US$ 1.49 billion and 0.29% of the GDP. Of the total financing, 64% originate from domestic sources. The other 36% is external financing, most importantly Gavi support for introducing new vaccines. This analysis identified potential financing gaps for many immunization-related activities besides procuring vaccines, such as expanding the cold chain, training, social mobilization, information systems, and research. The funding for Honduras' immunization program is a small share of total public spending on health. However, new vaccines recently added to the schedule with financial support from Gavi have increased the financing requirements by more than 30% in comparison to 2008. The Honduran government and its partners are developing sustainability plans to cover a
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Population genetic data for 15 STR loci (Identifiler kit) in Honduras.
Matamoros, Mireya; Pinto, Yessica; Inda, Francisco Javier; García, Oscar
2008-09-01
Allele frequencies for 15 STR autosomal loci (D8S1179, D21S11, D7S820, CSF1PO, D3S1358, TH01, D13S317, D16S539, D2S1338, D19S433, VWA, TPOX, D18S51, D5S818 and FGA) were obtained from a sample of 198 unrelated individuals from Honduras, Central America.
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The herpetofauna of Parque Nacional Pico Bonito, Honduras
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
James R. McCranie
2005-10-01
Full Text Available Seventy-three species of amphibians and reptiles (six salamanders, 20 anurans, 20 lizards, and 27 snakes are known from Parque Nacional Pico Bonito, Honduras. The physiography, climate, vegetation, and microhabitats of the park are briefly described. Forty-four species are recorded from Lowland Moist Forest, 45 from Premontane Wet Forest, and 14 from Lower Montane Wet Forest. The primary microhabitat and relative abundance of each species are indicated and population declines are discussed.
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International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
Una investigación realizada por la Red de Desarrollo ... enfrentar la violencia juvenil. □ los residentes urbanos ... recientes inversiones y la presencia de conductas anticompetitivas ... Foro Social de Deuda Externa y Desarrollo de Honduras.
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Salmonella in beef and produce from honduras.
Maradiaga, Martha; Miller, Mark F; Thompson, Leslie; Pond, Ansen; Gragg, Sara E; Echeverry, Alejandro; Garcia, Lyda G; Loneragan, Guy H; Brashears, Mindy M
2015-03-01
Salmonella continues to cause a considerable number of foodborne illnesses worldwide. The sources of outbreaks include contaminated meat and produce. The purpose of this study was to establish an initial investigation of the burden of Salmonella in produce and beef from Honduras by sampling retail markets and abattoirs. Retail produce samples (cantaloupes, cilantro, cucumbers, leafy greens, peppers, and tomatoes; n = 573) were purchased in three major cities of Honduras, and retail whole-muscle beef (n = 555) samples were also purchased in four major cities. Additionally, both hide and beef carcass (n = 141) samples were collected from two Honduran abattoirs. Whole-muscle beef samples were obtained using a sponge hydrated with buffered peptone water, and 10 ml of the buffered peptone water rinsate of each produce sample was collected with a dry sponge and placed in a bag to be transported back to the United States. Salmonella was detected using a commercially available, closeplatform PCR system, and positive samples were subjected to culture on selective media to obtain isolates. Overall, the prevalence of Salmonella-positive samples, based on PCR detection in Honduras (n = 555) retail beef was 10.1% (95% confidence interval = 7.8, 12.9), whereas 7.8% (n = 141) of beef carcass and hides samples were positive in both beef plants. The overall Salmonella prevalence for all produce samples (n = 573) collected was 2.1% (95% confidence interval = 1.2, 3.6). The most common serotypes identified in Honduras were Salmonella Typhimurium followed by Derby. These results provide an indication of Salmonella contamination of beef and produce in Honduras. Developing a Salmonella baseline for Latin America through an initial investigation like the one presented here contributes to a broader global understanding of the potential exposure through food, thus providing insight into the needs for control strategies.
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Gambino, Valeria; Micangeli, Andrea; Naso, Vincenzo; Michelangeli, Emanuele; Mario, Luca
2014-01-01
This study develops a sustainable housing model for the Mosquitia region of Honduras, aimed at improving the living conditions of indigenous communities and reducing their vulnerability to the effects of climate change. The improved housing efficiency and resilience will contribute to strengthen sanitation and hygiene, improve the living comfort and reduce environmental impact, particularly focusing on preserving the forest biodiversity. The project was developed following the criteria of env...
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Townsend, Josiah H; Medina-flores, Melissa; Reyes-Calderón, Onán; Austin, James D
2013-01-01
The highlands of northeastern Honduras remain under-characterized in terms of biological diversity, as exemplified by the regularity of new amphibian and reptile taxa discoveries. Following the recent description of a new species of Nototriton from the Sierra de Agalta in northeastern Honduras, we report the discovery of a second new species of Nototriton from the nearby Parque Nacional Montaña de Botaderos. This new taxon, Nototriton mime sp. nov., is distinguished from other Nototriton by its distinctive pale brown dorsal coloration in adult males, relatively large nares, a relatively broad head, mitochondrial sequence divergence, and phylogenetic relationships, and is geographically isolated from other populations of Nototriton.
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78 FR 20123 - Extension of the Designation of Honduras for Temporary Protected Status
2013-04-03
... Docket No. USCIS-2012-0016] RIN 1615-ZB18 Extension of the Designation of Honduras for Temporary... the designation of Honduras for Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for 18 months from July 6, 2013... Honduras that prompted the TPS designation continue to be met. There continues to be a substantial, but...
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La situación económica: social determinants of contraceptive use in rural Honduras.
Hall, Marissa G; Garrett, Jenna J; Barrington, Clare
2014-01-01
Contraceptive use is an important determinant of unintended pregnancy, but little is known about the social and structural factors that determine women's contraceptive use in rural Honduras. In this study, we aim to characterise the individual and social determinants of contraceptive use among women in rural Honduras. In 2011 and 2012, we conducted 14 interviews and 2 focus groups with women 18 years and older. In our analysis, we created a family-planning narrative for each participant and coded transcripts around key emergent themes related to these determinants. We found that social determinants--including poverty, gender dynamics and availability of family-planning methods--had a strong influence on contraceptive use among women in our sample. Study participants stated that they were faced with a difficult economic situation compounded by rising prices of basic goods and diminishing job opportunities. Paradoxically, at the same time that the economic situation led women to seek contraception, it also contributed to the structural barriers that limited their ability to obtain their method of choice and maintain continuous contraceptive use. Our findings suggest the need for multi-level efforts to create an enabling and sustainable environment for family planning among women in rural Honduras.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carol J. Palmer
1998-07-01
Full Text Available We report on our investigation of a malaria outbreak in Honduras, Central America, in January 1997. We tested 202 patients with fever and chills using thin and thick blood film microscopy. Sixteen patients lived in the city and the rest lived in rural areas. A total of 95 samples (47% were positive for malaria parasites. Seventy-nine percent (63/80 of the rural patients were infected with Plasmodium vivax and 21% (17/80 were infected with P. falciparum. In the urban area, all 15 infected patients had P. vivax malaria and none showed evidence of P. falciparum. Since previous reports indicate that falciparum malaria accounts for only 2% of the overall malaria infections in Honduras, the results reported here suggest that there is a dramatic increase in falciparum malaria in the area of Honduras investigated in this study.Notificamos los resultados de un estudio de un brote de malaria que se produjo en Honduras, Centroamérica, en enero de 1997. Sometimos a examen microscópico frotis delgados y frotis gruesos de la sangre de 202 pacientes con fiebre y escalofríos. Dieciséis pacientes eran habitantes de la zona urbana y el resto de la zona rural. Un total de 95 especímenes (47% fueron positivos a parásitos de la malaria. Setenta y ocho por ciento (62/80 de los pacientes del área rural estaban infestados con Plasmodium vivax y 22% (17/80 con P. falciparum. En la zona urbana, todos los 15 pacientes que estaban infestados tenían P. vivax y en ninguno se detectó P. falciparum. Ya que según informes previos la malaria de tipo falciparum representa solamente 2% de todos los casos de malaria en Honduras, nuestros resultados sugieren que hay un gran incremento del número de casos de malaria falciparum en la zona de Honduras en que se llevó a cabo esta investigación.
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Exports, Gender Wage Gaps and Poverty in Honduras
de Hoyos, Rafael E.; Bussolo, Maurizio; Núñez, Oscar
2012-01-01
This paper identifies and estimates the reduction in poverty attributable to the improved opportunities that international trade integration offered to women in Honduras. The expansion of the export-oriented maquila sector has brought gender equality both in terms of employment and labour earnings. A simulation exercise shows that, at a given point in time, poverty in Honduras would have been 1.5 percentage points higher had the maquila sector not existed. Of this increase in poverty, 0.35 pe...
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Catalino, Michael Paul; Durón, Reyna Maria; Bailey, Julia Nancy; Holden, Kenton Roy
2015-01-01
Adherence to medication is a worldwide problem and deserves country-specific attention. Honduras, like many other countries, has allopathic providers, traditional medicine (TM), and complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). Understanding a population's health behaviors is essential to satisfactory integration of these systems and successful patient care. The objective was to identify factors that influence medication adherence in Honduras. The research team administered a cross-sectional, 25-item questionnaire to various neighborhoods based on national demographic statistics in order to obtain a quota sample. Setting • The survey took place in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, Central America. The research team surveyed 614 Hondurans, aged ≥ 18 y, within the general population of Tegucigalpa, the largest and capital city of Honduras, in neighborhoods representing areas where primarily the lower and middle classes lived. The primary outcome measure was a modified Medication Adherence Report Scale (MARS). Results • The research team collected 610 surveys that had complete answers to questions about adherence (610/614, 99.3%) total complete responses to other items varied. The prevalence of use of TM was 62.8% (381/607). Nearly one-half, 47.3% (287/607), of all the respondents had used herbs or teas for health in the prior year, and 26.1% (159/607) of all respondents had received a sobada (therapeutic rubbing). Respondents with daily private spiritual devotions (OR = 0.610, P = .018) and diabetes (OR = 0.154, P = .004) were less likely to report low adherence. Receiving a sobada and a history of fever were independently associated with low adherence (OR = 1.718, P = .017 and OR = 2.226, P < .001, respectively). Hondurans use both allopathic and TM. Although private spiritual devotion may help improve adherence to medication, only use of traditional massage therapy, the sobada, was associated with decreased adherence. Effective integration of alternative therapies in
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A Multiorganization Approach to Improving Palliative Care in Honduras.
Kennedy Sheldon, Lisa; Dahlin, Constance; Maingi, Shail; Sanchez, Jose
2017-01-01
Since 2011, oncology nurses and physicians in the United States have been volunteering in Honduras with the International Cancer Corps (ICC), organized by the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), in partnership with Health Volunteers Overseas (HVO). In this article, the authors will summarize the work of the ASCO/HVO ICC teams that developed educational programs with local partners to improve cancer and palliative care in Honduras.
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Including the Disabled : The Chiminike Interactive Learning Center in Honduras
Maria Valéria Pena; Barbara Brakarz
2003-01-01
In the aftermath of Hurricane Mitch in 1998, the Honduras Interactive Environmental Learning and Science Promotion Project "Profuturo" was launched as a multi-sectoral effort designed to encourage and expand scientific, environmental, and cultural knowledge and management in the context of Honduras' sustainable development needs and ethnic diversity. Profuturo benefits Hondurans by providi...
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Holguín, Africa; Erazo, Karen; Escobar, Gustavo; de Mulder, Miguel; Yebra, Gonzalo; Martín, Leticia; Jovel, Luis Enrique; Castaneda, Luis; Pérez, Elsy
2011-05-01
Emergence of viral resistance is a major obstacle for antiretroviral treatment (ART) effectiveness. Human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) variants and drug-resistance mutations were identified in naive and antiretroviral drug-experienced children with virologic failure, in Honduras and El Salvador. Dried blood spots (DBS) from 80 individuals (54 from Honduras, 26 from El Salvador) infected during their childhood between 1989 and 2009 were collected in 2009. The HIV pol region was amplified and sequenced to identify antiretroviral-resistant mutations according to the 2009 International AIDS Society. The genotypic drug resistance interpretation was performed using the Stanford algorithm. HIV-1 variants were characterized by phylogenetic analysis and subtyping tools. HIV-1 protease and reverse transcription sequences were obtained from DBS specimens in 71 and 66 patients, respectively, of the 80 patients. All children were native Central Americans carrying subtype B, with a mean age of 9 years, most were male (65%), perinatally infected (96%), with moderate/severe AIDS symptoms (70%), and receiving first line ART at the time of sequencing (65%). Diagnostic delay was frequently observed. Infected children from Honduras presented longer ART experience and clinical outcomes, and more frequent severe symptoms. Resistant variants infected 1 of 11 naive children from El Salvador but none of the perinatally infected naive children from Honduras. Resistance was higher among ART-exposed individuals in both countries and similar for protease inhibitors (16%), nucleoside reverse transcription inhibitors (44%-52%), and nonnucleoside reverse-transcription inhibitors (66.7%). One in 10 pretreated children in each country was infected with resistant viruses to the 3 drug families. Our data support the need for continued surveillance of resistance patterns using DBS at national levels among naive and pretreated children to optimize the ART regimens.
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The Coreidae of Honduras (Hemiptera: Coreidae).
Linares, Carlos A; Orozco, Jesus
2017-01-01
Coreidae bugs are mostly sap-sucking insects feeding on a variety of plants. Despite their abundance and economic importance in Honduras there is little information on the species, their distribution and affected crops. Since knowledge of pest species allows for better management of crops, we aimed to document the diversity of this economically important group. Specimens from four entomological collections in Honduras were studied and an exhaustive search of all available literature was conducted. A total of 2,036 insects were examined. The fauna of Honduran coreids is now composed of 68 species. Nineteen species are recorded for the country for the first time and 17 species were found only in literature. Little is known about the biology and economic importance of most of the species.
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[National survey of blindness and avoidable visual impairment in Honduras].
Alvarado, Doris; Rivera, Belinda; Lagos, Luis; Ochoa, Mayra; Starkman, Ivette; Castillo, Mariela; Flores, Eduardo; Lansingh, Van C; Limburg, Hans; Silva, Juan Carlos
2014-11-01
To determine the prevalence of blindness and visual impairment in Honduras, its causes and the response by the health services to growing demand. A cross-sectional population study was conducted between June and December 2013 using the standard methodology of the Rapid Assessment of Avoidable Blindness. A random sample survey was done in 63 clusters of 50 individuals aged ≥ 50, representative of the country as a whole. Visual acuity (VA) was assessed using a Snellen eye chart, and the condition of the lens and posterior pole was examined by direct ophthalmoscopy. Cataract surgical coverage was calculated and an assessment made of its quality, the causes of VA 20/60 with available correction. The main barriers against cataract surgery were cost (27.7%) and the lack of availability or difficulty of geographical access to the treatment (24.6%). The prevalence of blindness and visual impairment in Honduras is similar to that of other Latin American countries. 67% of cases of blindness could be resolved by improving the response capacity of the ophthalmological services, especially of cataract surgery, improving optician services and incorporating eye care in primary health care.
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2013-06-13
CIENCIAS Y ARTES MILITARES Estudios Generales Por...OTHONIEL GROSS, MAYOR DEL EJÉRCITO DE HONDURAS. Licenciado en Ciencias Militares, Universidad de Defensa de Honduras, Honduras, 2010 Fuerte Leavenworth...Z39.18 ii MAESTRÍA EN CIENCIAS
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Development of a point-of-use fortification technology for delivery of micronutrients in Honduras.
Andrade, Juan E; Rosales, Eliana; Lopez, Julio R; Carrillo, E Paola; Engeseth, Nicki J; Helferich, William G
2015-01-01
Micronutrient deficiencies continue to afflict children rural populations around the world. A micronutrient delivery vehicle (MDV) was developed as a point-of-use technology for fortification of meals for school-age children beneficiaries of the Healthy Schools Program (HSP) in Honduras. MDV combines micronutrient powder through a traditional dough-making process, using staple flours (wheat and nixtamalized corn), oil and water as ingredients. After mixing the ingredients and kneading, dough is extruded through a specially designed hand press into noodles. After drying (overnight, 23°C), noodles are broken into small pieces, mixed (1:100 w/w) with rice and cooked as customary. Dispersion studies with NaFeEDTA showed adequate distribution (90%) in white rice. Color changes in MDV due to addition of vitamin A and iron (NaFeEDTA) carried forward into cooked rice. In Honduras, children from two rural schools (N = 47, 6-12 years) were not able to differentiate (triangle test) between control and unfortified MDV mixed (1:100 w/w) with white rice. Children from four schools (N = 83, 7-12 years) accepted control and iron fortified rice (3 mg Fe per serving) based on color and flavor similarly. This is a feasible point-of-use fortification technology for improvement of meals provided by the HSP in Honduras. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Comparison of molecular tests for the diagnosis of malaria in Honduras.
Fontecha, Gustavo A; Mendoza, Meisy; Banegas, Engels; Poorak, Mitra; De Oliveira, Alexandre M; Mancero, Tamara; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam; Lucchi, Naomi W; Mejia, Rosa E
2012-04-18
Honduras is a tropical country with more than 70% of its population living at risk of being infected with either Plasmodium vivax or Plasmodium falciparum. Laboratory diagnosis is a very important factor for adequate treatment and management of malaria. In Honduras, malaria is diagnosed by both, microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests and to date, no molecular methods have been implemented for routine diagnosis. However, since mixed infections, and asymptomatic and low-parasitaemic cases are difficult to detect by light microscopy alone, identifying appropriate molecular tools for diagnostic applications in Honduras deserves further study. The present study investigated the utility of different molecular tests for the diagnosis of malaria in Honduras. A total of 138 blood samples collected as part of a clinical trial to assess the efficacy of chloroquine were used: 69 microscopically confirmed P. falciparum positive samples obtained on the day of enrollment and 69 follow-up samples obtained 28 days after chloroquine treatment and shown to be malaria negative by microscopy. Sensitivity and specificity of microscopy was compared to an 18 s ribosomal RNA gene-based nested PCR, two single-PCR reactions designed to detect Plasmodium falciparum infections, one single-PCR to detect Plasmodium vivax infections, and one multiplex one-step PCR reaction to detect both parasite species. Of the 69 microscopically positive P. falciparum samples, 68 were confirmed to be P. falciparum-positive by two of the molecular tests used. The one sample not detected as P. falciparum by any of the molecular tests was shown to be P. vivax-positive by a reference molecular test indicating a misdiagnosis by microscopy. The reference molecular test detected five cases of P. vivax/P. falciparum mixed infections, which were not recognized by microscopy as mixed infections. Only two of these mixed infections were recognized by a multiplex test while a P. vivax-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR
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Tong, Van T; Turcios-Ruiz, Reina M; Dietz, Patricia M; England, Lucinda J
2011-09-01
To estimate smoking prevalence by gender, describe patterns of cigarette use, and identify predictors of current smoking in reproductive-age adults in four Latin American countries. Self-reported smoking was examined using data from Reproductive Health Surveys of women aged 15-49 years in Ecuador (2004), El Salvador (2002-2003), Guatemala (2002), and Honduras (2001), and of men aged 15-59 years in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras for the same years. Current smoking was assessed by demographic characteristics, and independent associations were examined using logistic regression. Data were weighted to be nationally representative of households with reproductive-age women and men. Current smoking prevalence ranged from 2.6% (Guatemala) to 13.1% (Ecuador) for women and from 23.1% (Guatemala) to 34.9% (El Salvador) for men. In Ecuador, 67.6% of female smokers were non-daily users; in other countries, daily use was more prevalent than non-daily use for both men and women. In daily users, the median number of cigarettes smoked per day ranged from 1.9 (Ecuador, Honduras) to 2.3 (Guatemala) for women and from 2.1 (Guatemala) to 3.6 (Honduras) for men. In bivariate analysis, smoking prevalence in all countries was highest in women who lived in urban areas, were previously married, and/or had high socioeconomic status. Risk factors for smoking varied by country and gender. National tobacco control programs in these countries should aggressively target high-risk populations (reproductive-age men) and maintain low prevalence in low-risk populations (reproductive-age women). More research is needed to understand addiction patterns in non-daily smokers.
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Sustainable energy policy in Honduras: Diagnosis and challenges
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Flores, Wilfredo C. [National Directorate of Energy, Tegucigalpa (MDC) (Honduras); Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Honduras, Facultad de Ciencias, Escuela de Fisica, Tegucigalpa (MDC) (Honduras); Ojeda, Osvaldo A. [Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia San Juan Bosco (Argentina); Flores, Marco A.; Rivas, Francisco R. [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Honduras, Facultad de Ciencias, Escuela de Fisica, Tegucigalpa (MDC) (Honduras)
2011-02-15
In view of having a still unexploited potential of natural resources available for clean energy and the possibility of using the regional electricity market in Central America, Honduras has several potential energy sources. The growing dependence on oil and the imminent increase in international prices of fossil fuels, coupled with the necessity of changing the energy sector arrangement, the State of Honduras has taken the lead for the development of a long-term sustainable energy policy. This energy policy must be able to develop various energy sources and guide both, the government and the private sector, to the planning and development of alternative energy sources and sustainable growth of the Honduran economy. In this paper, the various energy diagnoses and the potential for changing the Honduran energy mix are presented, as well as the investment required for sustainable management of the energy sector. Furthermore, the objectives of the energy policy and plan up to the year 2030 are presented, outlining the investment possibilities for the energy sector development, showing their costs and timeframes. - Research Highlights: {yields} This paper shows the development of a long-term energy policy for Honduras. {yields} The various diagnoses of the energy sector in Honduras are shown, considering the use of wood, biomass, biofuels, electricity, transportation, hydrocarbons and rural electrification. {yields} The most relevant results of the analysis of energy forecasting are shown, for which the LEAP software was used. {yields} The objectives of the energy policy and plan up to the year 2030 are presented, outlining the investment possibilities for the energy sector development, showing their costs and timeframes.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ghebremichael Solomon
2010-08-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Tuberculosis persists as a public health problem in Honduras. A better knowledge of the molecular characteristics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains will contribute to understand the transmission dynamics of the disease within the country. The aim of this study was to provide an insight of the genetic biodiversity of M. tuberculosis clinical isolates collected in Honduras between 1994 and 2002. Genotyping was performed using spoligotyping and RFLP. The spoligotypes obtained were compared with the SITVIT2 proprietary database of the Pasteur Institute of Guadeloupe. Results Spoligotyping grouped 84% of the isolates into 27 clusters (2 to 43 strains per cluster. Of the 44 shared international types (SITs identified among the Honduran stains, 8 SITs were newly identified either within the present study or after match with an orphan type previously identified in the SITVIT2 database. In addition, 16 patterns corresponded to orphan, previously unreported isolates. The Latin American Mediterranean (LAM lineage was the most common in this study; 55% of the strains belonged to this family. Other genotypes found were Haarlem (16%, T (16%, X-clade (6%, Unknown signature (5% and S (1%. Only one Beijing strain was identified (0.5%. We observed a high degree of diversity after characterizing the 43 isolates belonging to the main spoligotyping cluster (SIT 33, LAM3 with IS6110-RFLP. A total of 35 different RFLP-fingerprints were detected, of which 6 patterns corresponded to the same number of clusters comprising 14 strains. Conclusions The findings obtained in this study show that tuberculosis transmission in Honduras is due to modern M. tuberculosis lineages with high level of biodiversity.
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2010-01-01
Background Tuberculosis persists as a public health problem in Honduras. A better knowledge of the molecular characteristics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains will contribute to understand the transmission dynamics of the disease within the country. The aim of this study was to provide an insight of the genetic biodiversity of M. tuberculosis clinical isolates collected in Honduras between 1994 and 2002. Genotyping was performed using spoligotyping and RFLP. The spoligotypes obtained were compared with the SITVIT2 proprietary database of the Pasteur Institute of Guadeloupe. Results Spoligotyping grouped 84% of the isolates into 27 clusters (2 to 43 strains per cluster). Of the 44 shared international types (SITs) identified among the Honduran stains, 8 SITs were newly identified either within the present study or after match with an orphan type previously identified in the SITVIT2 database. In addition, 16 patterns corresponded to orphan, previously unreported isolates. The Latin American Mediterranean (LAM) lineage was the most common in this study; 55% of the strains belonged to this family. Other genotypes found were Haarlem (16%), T (16%), X-clade (6%), Unknown signature (5%) and S (1%). Only one Beijing strain was identified (0.5%). We observed a high degree of diversity after characterizing the 43 isolates belonging to the main spoligotyping cluster (SIT 33, LAM3) with IS6110-RFLP. A total of 35 different RFLP-fingerprints were detected, of which 6 patterns corresponded to the same number of clusters comprising 14 strains. Conclusions The findings obtained in this study show that tuberculosis transmission in Honduras is due to modern M. tuberculosis lineages with high level of biodiversity. PMID:20678242
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Honduras: Will the Revolution Come?
1983-06-03
specifically, El Salvador and Nicar- 10 agua . Honduras’ status as the only country in the region with a freely convertible currency during most of...PACIFIC PANAMA OCEAN CQL0O74IA ECUADOR. ~--~ .. . ~ ~ ..... PERU ------- -~ PACIFIC OCEAN ( ~ AUY CHILE -~ ~~UR GUAY DEMOCRACIES ý’-’ AR G E N I’lA
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Integrating health promotion and disease prevention interventions with vaccination in Honduras.
Molina-Aguilera, Ida Berenice; Mendoza-Rodríguez, Lourdes Otilia; Palma-Ríos, María Aparicia; Danovaro-Holliday, M Carolina
2012-03-01
We sought to review and describe health interventions integrated with immunization delivery, both routine and during national vaccination weeks, in Honduras between 1991 and 2009. We compiled and examined all annual evaluation reports from the national Expanded Program on Immunization and reports from the national vaccination weeks (NVWs) between 1988 and 2009. We held discussions with the persons responsible for immunization and other programs in the Health Secretary of Honduras for the same time period. Since 1991, several health promotion and disease prevention interventions have been integrated with immunization delivery, including vitamin A supplementation (since 1994), folic acid supplementation (2003), early detection of retinoblastoma (since 2003), breastfeeding promotion (2007-2008), and disease control activities during public health emergencies, such as cholera control (1991-1992) and dengue control activities (since 1991, when a dengue emergency coincides with the NVW). Success factors included sufficient funds and supplies to ensure sustainability and joint planning, delivery, and monitoring. Several health interventions have been integrated with vaccination delivery in Honduras for nearly 20 years. The immunization program in Honduras has sufficient structure, organization, acceptance, coverage, and experience to achieve successful integration with health interventions if carefully planned and suitably implemented.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José Orlando Solórzano Girón
2006-12-01
Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To estimate the annual burden of diarrhea and of diarrhea that is associated with rotavirus (RV in children who are treated at public clinics and hospitals in Honduras. METHODS: Data were collected from computerized records of all children OBJETIVOS: Estimar la carga anual por diarrea y por diarrea asociada con la infección por rotavirus (RV en niños atendidos en clínicas y hospitales públicos de Honduras. MÉTODOS: Los datos se obtuvieron a partir de los registros computarizados de todos los niños menores de 5 años atendidos por diarrea en clínicas y hospitales operados por la Secretaría de Salud de Honduras durante el período 2000-2004. Una revisión de los estudios realizados sobre RV en Honduras y los países vecinos ofreció estimados de las tasas de detección de RV en niños tratados por diarrea aguda hospitalizados o de forma ambulatoria. Con estos datos se estimó el número anual de casos de diarrea y de diarrea asociada con la infección por RV en Honduras, la incidencia acumulativa de diarrea y de diarrea asociada con la infección por RV en niños menores de 5 años y el número de muertes debido a RV en niños hospitalizados por diarrea. RESULTADOS: Entre los años 2000 y 2004 se registraron medias anuales de 222 000 visitas médicas, 4 390 hospitalizaciones y 162 muertes hospitalarias por diarrea en niños menores de 5 años en instalaciones sanitarias públicas de Honduras. A partir de la revisión de la literatura científica relativa a Honduras y los países vecinos se estimó que 30% de los casos de diarrea atendidos ambulatoriamente y 43% de los hospitalizados podrían deberse a RV. En consecuencia, se estimó que 66 600 visitas médicas ambulatorias, 1 888 hospitalizaciones y 70 muertes hospitalarias de niños menores de 5 años pueden atribuirse a la infección por RV anualmente en Honduras. Por lo tanto, los riesgos de un niño en sus primeros 5 años de vida de asistir a una consulta, de ser
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Tabora, N.; Zelaya, A.; Bakkers, J.; Melchers, W.J.; Ferrera, A.
2005-01-01
Sexually transmitted infections are a serious health problem in Honduras. Human papillomavirus (HPV) and Chlamydia trachomatis are major causes of sexually transmitted diseases. To determine the prevalence of C. trachomatis and HPV in young women, 100 female university students in Honduras were
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Samra, José A; Hagood, Nancy L; Summer, Andrea; Medina, Marco T; Holden, Kenton R
2017-07-01
The first case of Chikungunya virus in Honduras was identified in 2014. The virus has spread widely across Honduras via the Aedes aegypti mosquito, leading to an outbreak of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in 2015 that significantly impacted children. A retrospective chart review of 235 children diagnosed with CHIKV and admitted to the National Autonomous University of Honduras Hospital Escuela (Hospital Escuela) in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, was accomplished with patients who were assessed for clinical features and neurologic complications. Of 235 children admitted to Hospital Escuela with CHIKV, the majority had symptoms of fever, generalized erythematous rash, and irritability. Fourteen percent had clinical arthritis. Ten percent of patients had seizures. Six percent had meningoencephalitis. There were 2 childhood deaths during the course of this study, one from meningoencephalitis and another from myocarditis. Chikungunya virus can cause severe complications in children, the majority of which impact the central nervous system.
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Mapa de Vulnerabilidad en Honduras
Sánchez, A. A.
2013-05-01
Dado que Honduras geográficamente se encuentra en una zona que esta expuesta a diferentes fenómenos sísmicos y climatológicos. Investigamos cuales son las zonas mas propensas a desastres naturales, la vulnerabilidad y el factor de resiliencia de la población de acuerdo a diferentes parámetros de estudio.
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Logan, M.L.; Montgomery, Chad E.; Boback, Scott M.; Reed, R.N.; Campbell, J.A.
2012-01-01
Studies of recently isolated populations are useful because observed differences can often be attributed to current environmental variation. Two populations of the lizard Anolis lemurinus have been isolated on the islands of Cayo Menor and Cayo Mayor in the Cayos Cochinos Archipelago of Honduras for less than 15 000 y. We measured 12 morphometric and 10 habitat-use variables on 220 lizards across these islands in 2 y, 2008 and 2009. The goals of our study were (1) to explore patterns of sexual dimorphism, and (2) to test the hypothesis that differences in environment among islands may have driven divergence in morphology and habitat use despite genetic homogeneity among populations. Although we found no differences among sexes in habitat use, males had narrower pelvic girdles and longer toe pads on both islands. Between islands, males differed in morphology, but neither males nor females differed in habitat use. Our data suggest that either recent selection has operated differentially on males despite low genetic dill'erentiation, or that they display phenotypic plasticity in response to environmental variation. We suggest that patterns may be driven by variation in intrapopulation density or differences in predator diversity among islands.
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1992-05-01
Honduras has an area of 112,088 square km or 43,277 square miles with a population of 4.8 million in 1991 of whom 90% are mestizos. Literacy is 68%, the infant mortality rate is 60/1000, and life expectancy is 63 years. After independence from Spain in 1821 the Central American Federation collapsed in 1938. There have been 300 internal rebellions since independence. With an inadequate economic infrastructure, sociopolitical integration has been fragile. In 1982 the Suazo government relied on US support to face the economic recession, the threat posed by the Marxist government in Nicaragua, and civil war in El Salvador. USAID sponsored ambitious social and economic projects. A peaceful transfer of power between civilian presidents occurred in 1986 despite an electoral quirk. In 1990 President Callejas introduced reforms to reduce the deficit, and to stimulate investments and exports. After initial higher inflation and low growth in 1990 and 1991, modest progress is forecast for 1992 and 1993. The powerful military has been kept in check, and human rights have been better protected. The country is among the poorest in Latin America with underemployment of 30-40% and a mostly agricultural economy. The 1990 reforms of deregulation of prices, liberalization of trade, less protectionism, and export orientation is expected to produce longterm benefits not only in agriculture but also in manufacturing. The US is the primary trading partner, and the main direct foreign investor (fruits, refining, and mining). The slash-and-burn agricultural cultivation has created environmental destruction, and as a sign of public awareness the armed forces have engaged in reforestation and fighting forest fires.
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Honduras - Public Financial Management and Public-Private Partnerships
Millennium Challenge Corporation — The Honduras Threshold Country Program (TCP) aims to increase the efficiency and transparency of public financial management (PFM) and public private partnerships...
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Speizer, Ilene S.; Goodwin, Mary; Whittle, Lisa; Clyde, Maureen; Rogers, Jennifer
2008-01-01
Objective: The prevalence of sexual abuse during childhood or adolescence varies depending on the definitions and age categories used. This study examines the first national, population-based data available on child sexual abuse that occurs before age 15 in three countries: El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. This study uses comparable…
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Climate change impacts on maize and dry bean yields of smallholder farmers in Honduras
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
MENDOZA, Carlos O.
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The rotation maize and dry bean provides the main food supply of smallholder farmers in Honduras. Crop model assessment of climate change impacts (2070–2099 compared to a 1961–1990 baseline on a maize–dry bean rotation for several sites across a range of climatic zones and elevations in Honduras. Low productivity systems, together with an uncertain future climate, pose a high level of risk for food security. The cropping systems simulation dynamic model CropSyst was calibrated and validated upon field trail site at Zamorano, then run with baseline and future climate scenarios based upon general circulation models (GCM and the ClimGen synthetic daily weather generator. Results indicate large uncertainty in crop production from various GCM simulations and future emissions scenarios, but generally reduced yields at low elevations by 0 % to 22 % in suitable areas for crop production and increased yield at the cooler, on the hillsides, where farming needs to reduce soil erosion with conservation techniques. Further studies are needed to investigate strategies to reduce impacts and to explore adaptation tactics.
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Martiniuk, Alexandra L C; Adunuri, Nikesh; Negin, Joel; Tracey, Patti; Fontecha, Claudio; Caldwell, Paul
2012-01-01
The weak health system in Honduras contributes to poor health indicators. To improve population health, a number of volunteer medical brigades from developed countries provide health services in Honduras. To date, there is little information on the brigades' activities and impact. The primary objective of this article is to increase understanding of the type of health care provided by voluntary medical brigades by evaluating and presenting data on patients' presenting symptoms, diagnoses, and care outcomes. The article focuses on an ongoing medical brigade organized by Canadian health professionals in conjunction with Honduras' largest national non-governmental organization. This is a descriptive study of data that are routinely collected by volunteer Canadian health care professionals. Data on all patients presenting to temporary primary health care facilities across Honduras between 2006 and 2009 were analyzed. The data were used to analyze patient demographics, presenting symptoms, diagnoses, and treatments. We found that the brigades provide additional human resources to the relatively weak Honduran health care system. However, while brigades may increase solidarity between Hondurans and Canadians, concerns persist regarding cost-effectiveness and continuity of care for conditions treated by short-term brigade volunteers. Greater scrutiny is needed to increase brigades' effectiveness and ensure they are supportive of domestic health systems.
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Transmitted drug resistance and type of infection in newly diagnosed HIV-1 individuals in Honduras.
Murillo, Wendy; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela; Morales, Sonia; Monterroso, Edgar; Paredes, Mayte; Dobbs, Trudy; Parekh, Bharat S; Albert, Jan; Rivera, Ivette Lorenzana de
2010-12-01
Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) reduces the efficacy of antiretroviral treatment and is a public health concern. To gain insight in the epidemiology of TDR in Honduras by evaluating the amount of TDR in a representative sample of newly diagnosed individuals and by determining whether these are recent or established infections. Two hundred treatment-naïve, newly diagnosed HIV-positive individuals representing different population groups (general population, Garifunas ethnic group, female sex workers and men who have sex with men) and different geographic regions were enrolled during April 2004-April 2007. The HIV-1 pol gene was sequenced to identify drug-resistant mutations and TDR was scored as recommended by the WHO. Specimens were classified as recent or established infections using the BED assay. Among 200 samples analyzed from Honduran patients the prevalence of TDR was 7% (95% CI: 3.9-11.5%), 5% for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), 3% for nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and 0.5% for protease inhibitors (PIs). Testing of these samples with the BED assay revealed that 12% of the specimens were associated with recent infections. TDR was significantly more common in specimens with recent infection (21%) than established infection (5%) (p=0.016). The prevalence of TDR in Honduras was moderate (7%). The percentage of specimens who were recently infected was low (12%), suggesting that late HIV diagnosis is common. The TDR prevalence was higher in recent than in established infections, which may indicate that TDR is increasing over time. The higher prevalence of NNRTI and NRTI mutations as compared to PI mutations is probably due to a broader and longer use of these drugs in Honduras. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Salgado-Maldonado, Guillermo; Matamoros, Wilfredo A; Kreiser, Brian R; Caspeta-Mandujano, Juan Manuel; Mendoza-Franco, Edgar F
2015-01-01
This paper provides the first report of the invasive Asian fish tapeworm, Bothriocephalus acheilognathi Yamaguti, 1934, in Honduras. The cestode was found in Profundulus portillorum (Cyprinodontiformes: Profundulidae), which represents a new host record, and which is a member of a genus faced with a variety of conservation challenges, now potentially complicated by the presence of this pathogenic cestode. Nearly complete sequence data from the ITS-1 5.8S and ITS-2 regions corroborate the determination based on morphological characteristics. Several species of carp were introduced to Honduras for aquaculture purposes in the early 1980s and the presence of the Asian fish tapeworm in Honduras may be related to these introductions. In addition, this report documents the currently known geographical distribution of this parasite in Central America, first recorded from Panamá and now from Honduras. © G. Salgado-Maldonado et al., published by EDP Sciences, 2015.
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Mareros and pandilleros in Honduras: the reintegration of youth gang members
Van Damme, Ellen
2016-01-01
The focus of this research is on the reintegration of youth gang members in Honduras. The aim of this qualitative study is to broaden the knowledge of reintegration processes and programs in one specific country in Central America, namely, Honduras. A sample of fourteen interviews with stakeholders in the field of maras and pandillas has been investigated and the results revealed some similarities between the different methods of reintegration. Our data suggest that a comprehensive process, i...
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International Uranium Resources Evaluation Project (IUREP) national favourability studies: Honduras
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1977-08-01
In 1953, the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, on invitation of the government of Honduras, conducted uranium reconnaissance in parts of the country. The survey consisted of scintillometric examination of all formations, veins, dikes, sills and contacts along more than 1,500 km of road. Additionally, 17 mines and prospects were examined, but in no location were uranium occurrences found. The largest and most consistently radioactive deposit noted was a body of volcanic ash at Santa Rosa de Copan, a sample of which assayed 15 ppm U 3 O 8 . A uranium prospect has been described from the Yatnala area in northwest Honduras. Uraninite and oxidation products occur in association with copper and mercury minerals in veinlets as well as disseminations in a Lower Cretaceous limestone conglomerate, the llama Formation. The llama Formation is the conglomeratic facies of the Atima (limestone) Formation, both of which are in the Yojoa Group. At the time of the U. N. development program survey in May, 1970, no uranium deposits were known in Honduras. Information is not available on current exploration in Honduras. The state owns most mineral deposits but may grant rights for exploration and exploitation of the subsoil. Mineral and surface titles are separate. Deposits of uranium and its salts, thorium and similar atomic energy substances are reserved to the state. Foreign citizens and companies, with some exceptions, may acquire mineral rights. Several groups of sediments might be of interest for uranium exploration. The Todos Santos redbeds and the El Plan Formation are both shallow marine and hence may contain marginal marine facies favorable for uranium. In the southern and central Cordillera, the Valle de Angeles sediments, particularly the sandstones, may be of interest. The contacts between Permian granites and schists (Paleozoic) may also warrant attention. Lacking further information on which to base a more optimistic outlook, it is estimated that the uranium potential of
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Prevalence of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions in Puerto Lempira, Honduras.
Abdallah, Joseph F; Okoth, Sheila Akinyi; Fontecha, Gustavo A; Torres, Rosa Elena Mejia; Banegas, Engels I; Matute, María Luisa; Bucheli, Sandra Tamara Mancero; Goldman, Ira F; de Oliveira, Alexandre Macedo; Barnwell, John W; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam
2015-01-21
Recent studies have demonstrated the deletion of the histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) gene (pfhrp2) in field isolates of Plasmodium falciparum, which could result in false negative test results when PfHRP2-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are used for malaria diagnosis. Although primary diagnosis of malaria in Honduras is determined based on microscopy, RDTs may be useful in remote areas. In this study, it was investigated whether there are deletions of the pfhrp2, pfhrp3 and their respective flanking genes in 68 P. falciparum parasite isolates collected from the city of Puerto Lempira, Honduras. In addition, further investigation considered the possible correlation between parasite population structure and the distribution of these gene deletions by genotyping seven neutral microsatellites. Sixty-eight samples used in this study, which were obtained from a previous chloroquine efficacy study, were utilized in the analysis. All samples were genotyped for pfhrp2, pfhrp3 and flanking genes by PCR. The samples were then genotyped for seven neutral microsatellites in order to determine the parasite population structure in Puerto Lempira at the time of sample collection. It was found that all samples were positive for pfhrp2 and its flanking genes on chromosome 8. However, only 50% of the samples were positive for pfhrp3 and its neighboring genes while the rest were either pfhrp3-negative only or had deleted a combination of pfhrp3 and its neighbouring genes on chromosome 13. Population structure analysis predicted that there are at least two distinct parasite population clusters in this sample population. It was also determined that a greater proportion of parasites with pfhrp3-(and flanking gene) deletions belonged to one cluster compared to the other. The findings indicate that the P. falciparum parasite population in the municipality of Puerto Lempira maintains the pfhrp2 gene and that PfHRP2-based RDTs could be considered for use in this region; however
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Obstetric referrals from a rural clinic to a community hospital in Honduras.
Josyula, Srirama; Taylor, Kathryn K; Murphy, Blair M; Rodas, Dairamise; Kamath-Rayne, Beena D
2015-11-01
referrals between health care facilities are important in low-resource settings, particularly in maternal and child health, to transfer pregnant patients to the appropriate level of obstetric care. Our aim was to characterise the obstetrical referrals from a rural clinic to a community referral hospital in Honduras, to identify barriers in effective transport/referral, and to describe subsequent patient outcomes. we performed a descriptive retrospective study of patients referred during a 9-month period. We reviewed patient charts to review diagnosis, referral, and treatment times at both sites to understand the continuity of care. ninety-two pregnant patients were referred from the rural clinic to the community hospital. Twenty six pregnant patients (28%) did not have complete and accurate medical records and were excluded from the study. The remaining 66 patients were our study population. Of the 66 patients, 54 (82%) received antenatal care with an average of 5.5±2.4 visits. The most common diagnoses requiring referral were non-reassuring fetal status, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and preterm labour. The time spent in the rural clinic until transfer was 7.35±8.60 hours, and transport times were 4.42±1.07 hours. Of the 66 women transferred, 24 (36%) had different primary diagnoses and 16 (24%) had additional diagnoses after evaluation in the community hospital, whereas the remaining 26 (40%) had diagnoses that remained the same. No system was in place to give feedback to the referring clinic doctors regarding their primary diagnoses. our results demonstrate challenges seen in obstetric transport from a rural clinic to a community hospital in Honduras. Further research is needed for reform of emergency obstetric care management, targeting both healthcare personnel and medical referral infrastructure. The example of Honduras can be taken to motivate change in other resource-limited areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Risk factors associated with the presence and severity of food insecurity in rural Honduras.
Ben-Davies, Maureen E; Kinlaw, Alan; Estrada Del Campo, Yaniré; Bentley, Margaret E; Siega-Riz, Anna Maria
2014-01-01
To identify factors associated with the presence and severity of food insecurity among a sample of Honduran caregivers of young children. Cross-sectional study in which the dependent variable, household food insecurity, was measured using a fourteen-item questionnaire developed and validated in a population of similar cultural context. A predictive modelling strategy used backwards elimination in logistic regression and multinomial logit regression models to compute odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for food insecurity. Rural Honduras in the department of Intibucá, between March and April 2009. Two-hundred and ninety-eight Honduran caregivers of children aged 6-18 months. Ninety-three per cent of households were classified as having some degree of food insecurity (mild, moderate or severe). After controlling for caregiver age and marital status, compared with caregivers with more than primary-school education, those with less than primary-school education had 3·47 (95% CI 1·34, 8·99) times the odds of severe food insecurity and 2·29 (95% CI 1·00, 5·25) times the odds of moderate food insecurity. Our results also found that child anthropometric status was not associated with the presence or severity of food insecurity. These results show that among the sociodemographic factors assessed, food insecurity in rural Honduras is associated with maternal education. Understanding key factors associated with food insecurity that are unique to Honduras can inform the design of interventions to effectively mitigate the negative impact of food insecurity on children.
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Analisis de las Condiciones de Salud del Nino de 0-6 anos en Honduras.
Matamoros, Douglas Alberto
1987-01-01
Examines the National Pediatric Service and the research program of the Maternity-Infant-Hospital-School in Honduras. Reports that health conditions of young children (birth to six years) in Honduras are appalling and that available funds for health services are inadequate, reflecting the country's economic and social crisis. (NH)
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Hurricane Mitch: Peak Discharge for Selected River Reachesin Honduras
Smith, Mark E.; Phillips, Jeffrey V.; Spahr, Norman E.
2002-01-01
Hurricane Mitch began as a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea on 22 October 1998. By 26 October, Mitch had strengthened to a Category 5 storm as defined by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (National Climate Data Center, 1999a), and on 27 October was threatening the northern coast of Honduras (fig. 1). After making landfall 2 days later (29 October), the storm drifted south and west across Honduras, wreaking destruction throughout the country before reaching the Guatemalan border on 31 October. According to the National Climate Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (National Climate Data Center, 1999b), Hurricane Mitch ranks among the five strongest storms on record in the Atlantic Basin in terms of its sustained winds, barometric pressure, and duration. Hurricane Mitch also was one of the worst Atlantic storms in terms of loss of life and property. The regionwide death toll was estimated to be more than 9,000; thousands of people were reported missing. Economic losses in the region were more than $7.5 billion (U.S. Agency for International Development, 1999). Honduras suffered the most widespread devastation during the storm. More than 5,000 deaths, and economic losses of more than $4 billion, were reported by the Government of Honduras. Honduran officials estimated that Hurricane Mitch destroyed 50 years of economic development. In addition to the human and economic losses, intense flooding and landslides scarred the Honduran landscape - hydrologic and geomorphologic processes throughout the country likely will be affected for many years. As part of the U.S. Government's response to the disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted post-flood measurements of peak discharge at 16 river sites throughout Honduras (fig. 2). Such measurements, termed 'indirect' measurements, are used to determine peak flows when direct measurements (using current meters or dye studies, for example) cannot be made. Indirect measurements of
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Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, Using a Hydro-Geotechnical Model
Garcia Urquia, Elias; Axelsson, K.
2010-05-01
Central America is constantly being affected by natural hazards. Among these events are hurricanes and earthquakes, capable of triggering landslides that can alter the natural landscape, destroy infrastructure and cause the death of people in the most important settlements of the region. Hurricane Mitch in October of 1998 was of particular interest for the region, since it provoked hundreds of rainfall-induced landslides, mainly in 4 different countries. Studies carried out after Hurricane Mitch have allowed researchers to identify the factors that contribute to slope instability in many vulnerable areas. As Tegucigalpa, Honduras was partially destroyed due to the various landslide and flooding events triggered by this devastating hurricane, various research teams have deepened in their investigations and have proposed measures to mitigate the effects of similar future incidents. A model coupling an infinite-slope analysis and a simple groundwater flow approach can serve as a basis to predict the occurrence of landslides in Tegucigalpa, Honduras as a function of topographic, hydrological and soil variables. A safety map showing the rainfall-triggered landslide risk zones for Tegucigalpa, Honduras is to be created. As opposed to previous safety maps in which only steady-state conditions are studied, this analysis is extended and different steady-state and quasi-dynamic scenarios are considered for comparison. For the purpose of the latter settings, a hydrological analysis that determines the rainfall extreme values and their return periods in Tegucigalpa will account for the influence of rainfall on the groundwater flow and strength of soils. It is known that the spatial distribution of various factors that contribute to the risk of landslides (i.e. soil thickness, conductivity and strength properties; rainfall intensity and duration; root strength; subsurface flow orientation) is hard to determine. However, an effort is done to derive correlations for these
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dagna O. Constenla
Full Text Available OBJECTIVE:A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the economic impact of post-introduction pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV programs in Ecuador, Honduras, and Paraguay from the societal perspective. METHODS: Hypothetical birth cohorts were followed for a 20-year period in each country. Estimates of disease burden, vaccine effectiveness, and health care costs were derived from primary and secondary data sources. Costs were expressed in 2014 US$. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of model input uncertainties. RESULTS: Over the 20 years of vaccine program implementation, the health care costs per case ranged from US$ 764 854 to more than US$ 1 million. Vaccination prevented more than 50% of pneumococcal cases and deaths per country. At a cost of US$ 16 per dose, the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY averted for the 10-valent PCV (PCV10 and the 13-valet PCV (PCV13 ranged from US$ 796 (Honduras to US$ 1 340 (Ecuador and from US$ 691 (Honduras to US$ 1 166 (Ecuador respectively. At a reduced price (US$ 7 per dose, the cost per DALY averted ranged from US$ 327 (Honduras to US$ 528 (Ecuador and from US$ 281 (Honduras to US$ 456 (Ecuador for PCV10 and PCV13 respectively. Several model parameters influenced the results of the analysis, including vaccine price, vaccine efficacy, disease incidence, and costs. CONCLUSIONS: The economic impact of post-introduction PCV needs to be assessed in a context of uncertainty regarding changing antibiotic resistance, herd and serotype replacement effects, differential vaccine prices, and government budget constraints.
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Constenla, Dagna O
2015-11-01
A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the economic impact of post-introduction pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programs in Ecuador, Honduras, and Paraguay from the societal perspective. Hypothetical birth cohorts were followed for a 20-year period in each country. Estimates of disease burden, vaccine effectiveness, and health care costs were derived from primary and secondary data sources. Costs were expressed in 2014 US$. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of model input uncertainties. Over the 20 years of vaccine program implementation, the health care costs per case ranged from US$ 764 854 to more than US$ 1 million. Vaccination prevented more than 50% of pneumococcal cases and deaths per country. At a cost of US$ 16 per dose, the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for the 10-valent PCV (PCV10) and the 13-valet PCV (PCV13) ranged from US$ 796 (Honduras) to US$ 1 340 (Ecuador) and from US$ 691 (Honduras) to US$ 1 166 (Ecuador) respectively. At a reduced price (US$ 7 per dose), the cost per DALY averted ranged from US$ 327 (Honduras) to US$ 528 (Ecuador) and from US$ 281 (Honduras) to US$ 456 (Ecuador) for PCV10 and PCV13 respectively. Several model parameters influenced the results of the analysis, including vaccine price, vaccine efficacy, disease incidence, and costs. The economic impact of post-introduction PCV needs to be assessed in a context of uncertainty regarding changing antibiotic resistance, herd and serotype replacement effects, differential vaccine prices, and government budget constraints.
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Council of Educational Facility Planners, International, Scottsdale, AZ.
A team of 11 educational facility planners and architects from the United States and Canada conducted a facility evaluation of schools in the rural areas of Meambar and Cortes, Honduras. Team members were all part of the Council of Educational Facility Planners, International and traveled to Honduras under the auspices of a Christian mission…
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Sagastume-Espinoza, Kevin O; Longhorn, Stuart J; Santibáñez-López, Carlos E
2015-07-01
Three species of genus Diplocentrus are found in north-northwestern Honduras. These species represent the southern east limits of Diplocentrus' distribution. In recent years, a broad survey of arachnids in Honduras has yielded a collection of several specimens of an undescribed species from two islands in northern Honduras. This new species represents the second species of the genus inhabiting an island. The present contribution describes this new species, and compares it against its most similar relatives. A dichotomous key for the identification of the species of Diplocentrus in Honduras is also included. Copyright © 2015 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.
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Validation of a Type 2 Diabetes Screening Tool in Rural Honduras
Milton, Evan C.; Herman, William H.; Aiello, Allison E.; Danielson, Kris R.; Mendoza-Avelarez, Milton O.; Piette, John D.
2010-01-01
OBJECTIVE To validate a low-cost tool for identifying diabetic patients in rural areas of Latin America. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A regression equation incorporating postprandial time and a random plasma glucose was used to screen 800 adults in Honduras. Patients with a probability of diabetes of ≥20% were asked to return for a fasting plasma glucose (FPG). A random fifth of those with a screener-based probability of diabetes Honduras and could be used to identify diabetic patients in poor clinics in Latin America. PMID:19918008
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A paediatric cardiopulmonary resuscitation training project in Honduras.
Urbano, Javier; Matamoros, Martha M; López-Herce, Jesús; Carrillo, Angel P; Ordóñez, Flora; Moral, Ramón; Mencía, Santiago
2010-04-01
It is possible that the exportation of North American and European models has hindered the creation of a structured cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) training programme in developing countries. The objective of this paper is to describe the design and present the results of a European paediatric and neonatal CPR training programme adapted to Honduras. A paediatric CPR training project was set up in Honduras with the instructional and scientific support of the Spanish Group for Paediatric and Neonatal CPR. The programme was divided into four phases: CPR training and preparation of instructors; training for instructors; supervised teaching; and independent teaching. During the first phase, 24 Honduran doctors from paediatric intensive care, paediatric emergency and anaesthesiology departments attended the paediatric CPR course and 16 of them the course for preparation as instructors. The Honduran Paediatric and Neonatal CPR Group was formed. In the second phase, workshops were given by Honduran instructors and four of them attended a CPR course in Spain as trainee instructors. In the third phase, a CPR course was given in Honduras by the Honduran instructors, supervised by the Spanish team. In the final phase of independent teaching, eight courses were given, providing 177 students with training in CPR. The training of independent paediatric CPR groups with the collaboration and scientific assessment of an expert group could be a suitable model on which to base paediatric CPR training in Latin American developing countries. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Doing Business Economy Profile 2015 : Honduras
World Bank Group
2014-01-01
This economy profile for Doing Business 2015 presents the 11 Doing Business indicators for Honduras. To allow for useful comparison, the profile also provides data for other selected economies (comparator economies) for each indicator. Doing Business 2015 is the 12th edition in a series of annual reports measuring the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. ...
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Short-term service trips and the interprofessional team: a perspective from Honduras.
VanderWielen, Lynn M; Halder, Gabriela E; Enurah, Alexander S; Pearson, Catherine; Stevens, Michael P; Crossman, Steven H
2015-03-01
Short-term service trips from the USA annually spend over $250 million dollars to provide healthcare to individuals in developing nations. These trips often uniquely define goals as related to changes in the host population and overlook the valuable benefits potentially incurred by the trip volunteers. The Honduras Outreach Medical Brigada Relief Effort utilizes an interprofessional team approach to develop the dual goals of improving health and quality of life in host communities and improving interprofessional teamwork values and skills among participants. This article outlines details of this program, describes on-going evaluation work and discusses the interprofessional implications from this project.
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All projects related to Honduras | Page 2 | IDRC - International ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
Leveraging the Development of Inclusive and Sustainable Agricultural Value Chains ... Poor urban communities in most countries in Latin America and the ... South America, Chile, Colombia, Honduras, North and Central America, Mexico.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Frank, J.A.
1988-12-01
A mission to Honduras invited by the Government of Honduras and sponsored by the Organization of American States addressed the generation of employment in various areas of interest to the country. The mission was made up of experts from numerous countries and international agencies. In the energy sector, the mission recommended consolidating the sector under a coordinating body; carrying out projects to promote reforestation, tree farms, and rational forest utilization; encouraging industrial energy conservation; developing alternative energy sources; and promoting rural electrification and expansion of the electrical grid. In the mining sector, the mission supported promotion and technical assistance for small gold-leaching and placer operations, the national mineral inventory, detailed exploration of promising sites, and the development of a mining school. 13 refs., 7 tabs.
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Anthracnose disease evaluation of sorghum germplasm from Honduras
Germplasm collections are important resources for sorghum improvement and 17 accessions from Honduras were inoculated with Colletotrichum sublineolum and evaluated at the Tropical Agriculture Research Station in Isabela, Puerto Rico during the 2005 and 2006 growing seasons to identify sources of ant...
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Heat flow at the Platanares, Honduras, geothermal site
Meert, Joseph G.; Smith, Douglas L.
1991-03-01
Three boreholes, PLTG-1, PLTG-2 and PLTG-3, were drilled in the Platanares, Honduras geothermal system to evaluate the geothermal energy potential of the site. The maximum reservoir temperature was previously estimated at 225-240°C using various types of chemical and isotopic geothermometry. Geothermal gradients of 139-239°C/km, calculated from two segments of the temperature-depth profile for borehole PLTG-2, were used to project a minimum depth to the geothermal reservoir of 1.2-1.7 km. Borehole PLTG-1 exhibited an erratic temperature distribution attributed to fluid movement through a series of isolated horizontal and subhorizontal fractures. The maximum measured temperature in borehole PLTG-1 was 150.4°C, and in PLTG-2 the maximum measured temperature was 104.3°C. PLTG-3 was drilled after this study and the maximum recorded temperature of 165°C is similar to the temperature encountered in PLTG-1. Heat flow values of 392 mWm -2 and 266 mWm -2 represent the first directly-measured heat flow values for Honduras and northen Central America. Radioactive heat generation, based on gamma-ray analyses of uranium, thorium and potassium in five core samples, is less than 2.0 μWm -3 and does not appear to be a major source of the high heat flow. Several authors have proposed a variety of extensional tectonic environments for western Honduras and these heat flow values, along with published estimates of heat flow, are supportive of this type of tectonic regime.
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West Indian Sojourners in Guatemala and Honduras
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ronald N. Harpelle
2012-12-01
Full Text Available Review of: Race, Nation, and West Indian Immigration to Honduras, 1890-1940. Glenn A. Chambers. Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 2010. xii +202 pp. (Cloth US$ 35.00Black Labor Migration in Caribbean Guatemala, 1882-1923. Frederick Douglass Opie. Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 2009. 145 pp. (Cloth US$ 65.00
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Political ecology, mountain agriculture, and knowledge in Honduras
Jansen, K.
1998-01-01
The social and biophysical processes entailed in environmental deterioration are the subject of intense debate in Honduras, one of the poorest countries of Latin America. This book analyses the political ecology of precarious farming in mountainous areas. The author evaluates a rich array
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Hansen-Nord, Nete Sloth; Kjaerulf, Finn; Almendarez, Juan; Rodas, Victor Morales; Castro, Julio
2016-11-01
To examine the impact of a 3 year community-based violence prevention intervention on risk of violence and social capital in two poor urban communities in Honduras in 2011-2014. A quasi-experimental design pre and post implementation of the intervention was conducted based on data from two randomly selected samples using the same structured questionnaire in 2011 and in 2014. Community members had a 42 % lower risk of violence in 2014 compared to 2011. There was a positive relation between participation in the intervention and structural social capital, and participants had more than twice the likelihood of engaging in citizenship activities compared to the general population. The intervention contributed to decreasing violence and increasing community resilience in two urban areas in Honduras. Citizenship activities and active community participation in the violence prevention agenda rather than social trust and cohesion characteristics was affected by the intervention. This research introduces important lessons learned to future researchers aiming to retrieve very sensitive data in a similarly violent setting, and provides strong research opportunities within areas, which to this date remain undiscovered.
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Campodonico, Joanna; Sevilla-Martir, Javier; Arrizabalaga, Gustavo; Kochhar, Komal
2015-01-01
Malaria in Honduras is endemic and accounts for 40% of the total cases in Central America. Our goal was to assess knowledge of preventive methods and current treatment of malaria among the affected community of Trujillo, Honduras. A cross-sectional survey was administered to 71 individuals. Most respondents had a good understanding about common malaria symptoms but not about the complications associated with severe cases. More important, we found that less than 20% of the respondents recognized indoor residual sprays and insecticide-treated nets as effective preventive measures, which are the most efficient preventive methods. Our study highlights the perceptions the people of Trujillo have about malaria. From our observations, we put forward recommendations to implement a comprehensive campaign to educate the Trujillo population about malaria preventive methods and to recruit local and international efforts to distribute insecticide-treated nets.
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A scoping review and prevalence analysis of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Honduras.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ana Lourdes Sanchez
Full Text Available Honduras is endemic for soil-transmitted helminth (STH infections, but critical information gaps still remain on the prevalence and intensity of these infections as well as on their spatial distribution at subnational levels.Firstly, to review the research activity on STH infections in Honduras and secondly, to carry out a national prevalence analysis and map the geographical distribution of these infections in children.A systematic search was conducted of the published and grey literature to identify scientific work on the impact and prevalence of STH infections done between May 1930 and June 30, 2012. International databases and Honduran journals were searched. Grey literature was gleaned from local libraries and key informants. Select studies conducted between 2001 and 2012 were used to produce prevalence maps and to investigate association between STH prevalence and socio-economic and environmental factors.Of 257 identified studies, 211 (21.4% peer-reviewed were retained for analysis and categorized as clinical research (10.9%, treatment efficacy studies (8.1% or epidemiological studies (81%. Prevalence analysis and geographical mapping included 36 epidemiological studies from Honduras's 18 departments and 23% of its municipalities. Overall STH prevalence was >50% in 40.6% of municipalities. Prevalences above 20% for each trichuriasis, ascariasis, and hookworm infection were found in 68%, 47.8%, and 7.2% of studied municipalities, respectively. Municipalities with lower human development index, less access to of potable water, and with higher annual precipitation showed higher STH prevalences.This is the first study to provide a comprehensive historic review of STH research activity and prevalence in Honduras, revealing important knowledge gaps related to infection risk factors, disease burden, and anti-parasitic drug efficacy, among others. Our decade-long prevalence analysis reveals geographical differences in STH prevalence and these
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A scoping review and prevalence analysis of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Honduras.
Sanchez, Ana Lourdes; Gabrie, José Antonio; Rueda, María Mercedes; Mejia, Rosa Elena; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Canales, Maritza
2014-01-01
Honduras is endemic for soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections, but critical information gaps still remain on the prevalence and intensity of these infections as well as on their spatial distribution at subnational levels. Firstly, to review the research activity on STH infections in Honduras and secondly, to carry out a national prevalence analysis and map the geographical distribution of these infections in children. A systematic search was conducted of the published and grey literature to identify scientific work on the impact and prevalence of STH infections done between May 1930 and June 30, 2012. International databases and Honduran journals were searched. Grey literature was gleaned from local libraries and key informants. Select studies conducted between 2001 and 2012 were used to produce prevalence maps and to investigate association between STH prevalence and socio-economic and environmental factors. Of 257 identified studies, 211 (21.4% peer-reviewed) were retained for analysis and categorized as clinical research (10.9%), treatment efficacy studies (8.1%) or epidemiological studies (81%). Prevalence analysis and geographical mapping included 36 epidemiological studies from Honduras's 18 departments and 23% of its municipalities. Overall STH prevalence was >50% in 40.6% of municipalities. Prevalences above 20% for each trichuriasis, ascariasis, and hookworm infection were found in 68%, 47.8%, and 7.2% of studied municipalities, respectively. Municipalities with lower human development index, less access to of potable water, and with higher annual precipitation showed higher STH prevalences. This is the first study to provide a comprehensive historic review of STH research activity and prevalence in Honduras, revealing important knowledge gaps related to infection risk factors, disease burden, and anti-parasitic drug efficacy, among others. Our decade-long prevalence analysis reveals geographical differences in STH prevalence and these findings
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[Genetic isolates and inbreeding customs in three rural municipalities from Honduras].
Herrera-Paz, Edwin Francisco
2016-01-01
The isonymic method has been amply used to assess the approximate genetic structure of human communities. The objective of the study was to evaluate the magnitude of genetic isolation and inbreeding customs in 57 communities from three rural municipalities of Honduras using isonymy techniques. The list of 408 different surnames from 20712 voters registered in the national electoral organism, residing in the 57 Honduran communities, was used for this study. For each community, random (IR), non-random (IN), and total (IT) isonymy values were calculated in order to assess inbreeding coefficients FST, FIS and FIT. High consanguinity due to isolation and to endogamous customs was unveiled in many communities. Significant deviation from the exogamous behavior typical of many human populations was observed in the three studied municipalities, when compared to other Honduran populations. The studied communities present high consanguinity due to isolation, ethnic segregation and/or endogamous customs.
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Poverty-associated risk factors for wheezing in the first year of life in Honduras and El Salvador.
Bueso, A; Figueroa, M; Cousin, L; Hoyos, W; Martínez-Torres, A E; Mallol, J; Garcia-Marcos, L
2010-01-01
Risk factors for wheezing specifically during the first year of life have been studied in well-developed countries, but the information from developing countries is very scarce. There are no such studies focusing on factors derived from poverty. The aim of the present study was to determine if risk factors related to poverty are associated to wheezing during the first year of life in infants from Honduras and El Salvador. A survey, using a validated questionnaire, was carried out in the metropolitan area of San Pedro Sula (Honduras) and in La Libertad (El Salvador) in centres where infants attended for a scheduled vaccination shot or a healthy child visit at 12 months of age. Fieldworkers offered questionnaires to parents and helped the illiterate when necessary. The main outcome variable was wheezing during the first year of life, as reported by parents. A total of 1047 infants in El Salvador and 780 in Honduras were included in the analysis. The prevalence of wheeze in the first year was higher in El Salvador (41.2%) than in Honduras (27.7%), as was recurrent wheezing defined as three or more episodes (18.4% vs. 11.7%). Wheezing and recurrent wheezing was associated to unpaved floor in the household (summary odds ratios for both countries 1.55, p=0.036 and 1.72, p=0.054 for any wheeze and recurrent wheezing, respectively); dust entering from streets (1.30, p=0.052 and 1.67, p=0.008); living in a heavily polluted area (1.33, p=0.037 and 1.52, p=0.033); and having mould stains on the household walls (1.36, p=0.072 and 1.76, p=0.007). Furthermore, marginal associations were found for additional person at home and use of kerosene as cooking fuel. University studies in the mother (0.34, p=0.046 and 0.32, p=0.022) and a professional occupation in the father (0.34, p=0.046 and 0.26, p=0.047) were associated to a lower risk. The prevalence of wheezing and recurrent wheezing is notoriously high in El Salvador and Honduras. In those populations factors related to poverty
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José Orlando Solórzano Girón; Ida Berenice Molina; Reina M. Turcios-Ruiz; Claudia E. Quiroz Mejia; Luis Miguel Amendola; Lucia Helena de Oliveira; Jon K. Andrus; Paul W. Stupp; Joseph S. Bresee; Roger I. Glass
2006-01-01
OBJECTIVES: To estimate the annual burden of diarrhea and of diarrhea that is associated with rotavirus (RV) in children who are treated at public clinics and hospitals in Honduras. METHODS: Data were collected from computerized records of all children < 5 years old treated for diarrhea at clinics and hospitals operated by the Secretary of Health for the period of 2000 through 2004. A review of studies of RV in Honduras and neighboring countries provided estimates of detection rates of RV amo...
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Mejia Torres, Rosa Elena; Banegas, Engels Ilich; Mendoza, Meisy; Diaz, Cesar; Bucheli, Sandra Tamara Mancero; Fontecha, Gustavo A; Alam, Md Tauqeer; Goldman, Ira; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam; Zambrano, Jose Orlinder Nicolas
2013-05-01
Chloroquine (CQ) is officially used for the primary treatment of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Honduras. In this study, the therapeutic efficacy of CQ for the treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in the municipality of Puerto Lempira, Gracias a Dios, Honduras was evaluated using the Pan American Health Organization-World Health Organization protocol with a follow-up of 28 days. Sixty-eight patients from 6 months to 60 years of age microscopically diagnosed with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria were included in the final analysis. All patients who were treated with CQ (25 mg/kg over 3 days) cleared parasitemia by day 3 and acquired no new P. falciparum infection within 28 days of follow-up. All the parasite samples sequenced for CQ resistance mutations (pfcrt) showed only the CQ-sensitive genotype (CVMNK). This finding shows that CQ remains highly efficacious for the treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in Gracias a Dios, Honduras.
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Young, Michael
This report on the radio schools in Honduras, Central America, includes (1) an account of an afternoon session of the radio school's Primary Equivalence Programme (PEPA), including a testimonial of a student and a statement regarding the importance of the monitors; (2) information on the social background of Honduras; (3) an historical account of…
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Security Policies from a Spatial Perspective: the Case of Honduras
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lirio del Carmen Gutiérrez Rivera
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Public insecurity became a central issue for many Hondurans in the late 1990s, as crime, delinquency and homicide increased significantly in the isthmus. Honduras had the second highest homicide rate (35.1 per 100,000 in the region after El Salvador (50.2. per 100,000 . This social violence triggered insecurity and fear, which was further accompanied by the overall perception that the state was unable of relieving or protecting the population. This article looks at the failed attempts of the Honduran state to stop social violence and to control youth gang expansion by focusing on the security policies Cero Tolerancia (Zero Tolerance, Mano Dura (Iron Fist and the Ley Antimaras (Anti-Gang Law. It understands security policies as territorial strategies that attempt to reduce social violence and impose control.
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Child Marriage, Agency, and Schooling in Rural Honduras
Murphy-Graham, Erin; Leal, Graciela
2015-01-01
This article examines the relationships between child marriage, agency, and schooling in rural Honduras. Through an in-depth qualitative case study, we address the following questions: (1) In what ways, if any, do girls exercise agency in their decision to marry? (2) How might education enhance girls' agency, expanding their choice sets and…
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Rickettsial infections in ticks from reptiles, birds and humans in Honduras.
Novakova, Marketa; Literak, Ivan; Chevez, Luis; Martins, Thiago F; Ogrzewalska, Maria; Labruna, Marcelo B
2015-09-01
Ticks were collected from captive reptiles, wild birds, and incidentally from humans at two locations in Honduras and part of these were tested for the presence of Rickettsia using polymerase chain reaction. The following species of ticks were found: Amblyomma dissimile on Iguanidae reptiles, Amblyomma longirostre and Amblyomma nodosum on birds, and Amblyomma mixtum (Amblyomma cajennense complex) on humans. A. dissimile was infected with Rickettsia sp. strain Colombianensi. Both A. longirostre and A. mixtum were infected with Candidatus 'Rickettsia amblyommii'. This study provides the first report of rickettsial infections in ticks from reptiles, birds and humans in Honduras. New host - Amblyomma tick associations are documented. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
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Fontecha, Gustavo A; Sanchez, Ana L; Mendoza, Meisy; Banegas, Engels; Mejía-Torres, Rosa E
2014-07-01
Countries could use the monitoring of drug resistance in malaria parasites as an effective early warning system to develop the timely response mechanisms that are required to avert the further spread of malaria. Drug resistance surveillance is essential in areas where no drug resistance has been reported, especially if neighbouring countries have previously reported resistance. Here, we present the results of a four-year surveillance program based on the sequencing of the pfcrt gene of Plasmodium falciparum populations from endemic areas of Honduras. All isolates were susceptible to chloroquine, as revealed by the pfcrt "CVMNK" genotype in codons 72-76.
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Saville, Amanda; Charles, Melodi; Chavan, Suchitra; Muñoz, Miguel; Gómez-Alpizar, Luis; Ristaino, Jean Beagle
2017-12-01
Pseudocercospora fijiensis is the causal pathogen of black Sigatoka, a devastating disease of banana that can cause 20 to 80% yield loss in the absence of fungicides in banana crops. The genetic structure of populations of P. fijiensis in Costa Rica was examined and compared with Honduran and global populations to better understand migration patterns and inform management strategies. In total, 118 isolates of P. fijiensis collected from Costa Rica and Honduras from 2010 to 2014 were analyzed using multilocus genotyping of six loci and compared with a previously published global dataset of populations of P. fijiensis. The Costa Rican and Honduran populations shared haplotype diversity with haplotypes from Southeast Asia, Oceania, and the Americas but not Africa for all but one of the six loci studied. Gene flow and shared haplotype diversity was found in Honduran and Costa Rican populations of the pathogen. The data indicate that the haplotypic diversity observed in Costa Rican populations of P. fijiensis is derived from dispersal from initial outbreak sources in Honduras and admixtures between genetically differentiated sources from Southeast Asia, Oceania, and the Americas.
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Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)
In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three
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Sustainable energy policy in Honduras. Diagnosis and challenges
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Flores, Wilfredo C.; Ojeda, Osvaldo A.; Flores, Marco A.; Rivas, Francisco R.
2011-01-01
In view of having a still unexploited potential of natural resources available for clean energy and the possibility of using the regional electricity market in Central America, Honduras has several potential energy sources. The growing dependence on oil and the imminent increase in international prices of fossil fuels, coupled with the necessity of changing the energy sector arrangement, the State of Honduras has taken the lead for the development of a long-term sustainable energy policy. This energy policy must be able to develop various energy sources and guide both, the government and the private sector, to the planning and development of alternative energy sources and sustainable growth of the Honduran economy. In this paper, the various energy diagnoses and the potential for changing the Honduran energy mix are presented, as well as the investment required for sustainable management of the energy sector. Furthermore, the objectives of the energy policy and plan up to the year 2030 are presented, outlining the investment possibilities for the energy sector development, showing their costs and timeframes. (author)
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Sustainable energy policy in Honduras. Diagnosis and challenges
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Flores, Wilfredo C. [National Directorate of Energy, Tegucigalpa (MDC), Honduras, Central America (United States); Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Honduras, Facultad de Ciencias, Escuela de Fisica, Tegucigalpa (MDC), Honduras, Central America (United States); Ojeda, Osvaldo A. [Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia San Juan Bosco (Argentina); Flores, Marco A.; Rivas, Francisco R. [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Honduras, Facultad de Ciencias, Escuela de Fisica, Tegucigalpa (MDC), Honduras, Central America (United States)
2011-02-15
In view of having a still unexploited potential of natural resources available for clean energy and the possibility of using the regional electricity market in Central America, Honduras has several potential energy sources. The growing dependence on oil and the imminent increase in international prices of fossil fuels, coupled with the necessity of changing the energy sector arrangement, the State of Honduras has taken the lead for the development of a long-term sustainable energy policy. This energy policy must be able to develop various energy sources and guide both, the government and the private sector, to the planning and development of alternative energy sources and sustainable growth of the Honduran economy. In this paper, the various energy diagnoses and the potential for changing the Honduran energy mix are presented, as well as the investment required for sustainable management of the energy sector. Furthermore, the objectives of the energy policy and plan up to the year 2030 are presented, outlining the investment possibilities for the energy sector development, showing their costs and timeframes. (author)
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cooch, E. G.
2004-06-01
Full Text Available Increases or decreases in the size of populations over space and time are, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change over time in the abundance of some population is the simple difference between the number of additions (individuals entering the population minus the number of subtractions (individuals leaving the population. Of course, the precise nature of the pattern and process of these additions and subtractions is often complex, and population biology is often replete with fairly dense mathematical representations of both processes. While there is no doubt that analysis of such abstract descriptions of populations has been of considerable value in advancing our, there has often existed a palpable discomfort when the ‘beautiful math’ is faced with the often ‘ugly realities’ of empirical data. In some cases, this attempted merger is abandoned altogether, because of the paucity of ‘good empirical data’ with which the theoretician can modify and evaluate more conceptually–based models. In some cases, the lack of ‘data’ is more accurately represented as a lack of robust estimates of one or more parameters. It is in this arena that methods developed to analyze multiple encounter data from individually marked organisms has seen perhaps the greatest advances. These methods have rapidly evolved to facilitate not only estimation of one or more vital rates, critical to population modeling and analysis, but also to allow for direct estimation of both the dynamics of populations (e.g., Pradel, 1996, and factors influencing those dynamics (e.g., Nichols et al., 2000. The interconnections between the various vital rates, their estimation, and incorporation into models, was the general subject of our plenary presentation by Hal Caswell (Caswell & Fujiwara, 2004. Caswell notes that although interest has traditionally
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A provisional annotated list of the Lepidoptera of Honduras
A biodiversity inventory of the Lepidoptera of Pico Bonito National Park and vicinity, in the Department of Atlantida of northern Honduras, has been initiated and will be conducted to obtain baseline data. We present a revised checklist of Honduran butterfly species (updated from the initial 1967 l...
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Honduras : tous les projets | Page 2 | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
... South America, Chile, Colombia, Honduras, North and Central America, Mexico ... Élaboration d'une stratégie de lutte intégrée contre la pollution de l'eau à ... SANITATION SERVICES, WATER QUALITY, WATER POLLUTION, WATER ...
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A new species of Poecilia from Honduras (Teleostei: Poeciliidae)
Poeser, F.N.
2011-01-01
A new species of Poecilia from the Atlantic slopes of Honduras is described and assigned to the subgenus Mollienesia. Poecilia hondurensis, new species, differs from all congeners in the combination of having tricuspid teeth on the inner of both jaws and lacking a prominent spine or hook on the
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gustavo A Fontecha
2014-07-01
Full Text Available Countries could use the monitoring of drug resistance in malaria parasites as an effective early warning system to develop the timely response mechanisms that are required to avert the further spread of malaria. Drug resistance surveillance is essential in areas where no drug resistance has been reported, especially if neighbouring countries have previously reported resistance. Here, we present the results of a four-year surveillance program based on the sequencing of the pfcrt gene of Plasmodium falciparum populations from endemic areas of Honduras. All isolates were susceptible to chloroquine, as revealed by the pfcrt “CVMNK” genotype in codons 72-76.
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Honduras : tous les projets | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
Sujet: TAXATION, CONSUMER DEMAND, Fiscal policy, ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS, SMOKING, TOBACCO INDUSTRY. Région: North and Central America, South America, Guatemala, Honduras. Programme: Alimentation, environnement et santé. Financement total : CA$ 128,000.00. Prévention de la violence chez les ...
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First report of 'Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum' on tomato in Honduras
In April of 2012, tomato plants grown in several departments of Honduras, were observed with symptoms resembling those of “Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum” (Lso) infection. The symptoms include overall chlorosis, severe stunting, leaf cupping, excessive branching of axillary shoots, and leaf pu...
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Silbert, David I; Matta, Noelle S; Ely, Amanda L
2014-02-01
To evaluate the SureSight autorefractor and compare it to the plusoptiX A09 photoscreener in the detection of amblyopia risk factors in a cohort of Honduran children examined during medical mission work and to assess the utility of both devices in the rural setting. The medical records of patients who had undergone SureSight autorefractor screening, plusoptiX photoscreening, and a gold standard pediatric ophthalmology examination, including cycloplegic refraction, during a recent medical mission trip to Honduras were retrospectively reviewed. A total of 216 children were examined. Of these, 9 (4%) were found to have amblyopia risk factors based on the current referral criteria of the American Association for Pediatric Ophthalmology and Strabismus on ophthalmological examination. The plusoptiX was found to have 89% sensitivity and 80% specificity; the SureSight, using manufacturer's referral criteria, was found to have sensitivity of 89% and specificity of 71%. Both devices were found to be reliable vision screening devices when used on the general population of remote villages in Honduras, although the specificity of the plusoptiX A09 was higher. Copyright © 2014 American Association for Pediatric Ophthalmology and Strabismus. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Perceptions of stakeholders about nontraditional cookstoves in Honduras
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ramirez, Sebastian; Bailis, Robert; Ghilardi, Adrian; Dwivedi, Puneet
2012-01-01
We used SWOT-AHP (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats–analytical hierarchy process) technique to measure perceptions of four stakeholder groups: employees, local promoters, community leaders and end-users, about a nontraditional cookstove (NTCS) in Honduras. These stakeholder groups are part of an ongoing NTCS dissemination project led by Proyecto Mirador. We found that all stakeholder groups have a positive perception about the existing NTCS. Employees and local promoters stakeholder groups share similar perceptions. Smokeless cooking was selected as a prime strength, closely followed by reduction in forest logging and greenhouse gas emissions by all stakeholder groups. Availability of financial resources and responsible management were identified as crucial opportunities. Time spent in wood preparation and NTCS maintenance were identified as principal weaknesses. A long waiting time between a request and installation of NTCS and the risk of losing existing financial resources were acknowledged as major threats. Design improvements that can reduce maintenance and wood preparation time, a secure long-term source of funding through a market mechanism or direct/indirect government involvement, and early execution of pending orders will help in increasing adoption of NTCSs in rural Honduras. (letter)
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Perceptions of stakeholders about nontraditional cookstoves in Honduras
Ramirez, Sebastian; Dwivedi, Puneet; Bailis, Robert; Ghilardi, Adrian
2012-12-01
We used SWOT-AHP (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats-analytical hierarchy process) technique to measure perceptions of four stakeholder groups: employees, local promoters, community leaders and end-users, about a nontraditional cookstove (NTCS) in Honduras. These stakeholder groups are part of an ongoing NTCS dissemination project led by Proyecto Mirador. We found that all stakeholder groups have a positive perception about the existing NTCS. Employees and local promoters stakeholder groups share similar perceptions. Smokeless cooking was selected as a prime strength, closely followed by reduction in forest logging and greenhouse gas emissions by all stakeholder groups. Availability of financial resources and responsible management were identified as crucial opportunities. Time spent in wood preparation and NTCS maintenance were identified as principal weaknesses. A long waiting time between a request and installation of NTCS and the risk of losing existing financial resources were acknowledged as major threats. Design improvements that can reduce maintenance and wood preparation time, a secure long-term source of funding through a market mechanism or direct/indirect government involvement, and early execution of pending orders will help in increasing adoption of NTCSs in rural Honduras.
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First report of "Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum" on pepper in Honduras
In 2012, bell pepper (Capsicum annuum) plants exhibiting symptoms that resembled those of the bacterium “Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum” infection were observed in commercial pepper fields in several departments in Honduras, including Francisco Morazán, Ocotepeque, El Paraíso, and Olancho. Man...
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Estevez-Ordonez, Dagoberto; Dewan, Michael C; Feldman, Michael J; Montalvan-Sanchez, Eleazar E; Montalvan-Sanchez, Daniela M; Rodriguez-Murillo, Aida A; Urrutia-Argueta, Samuel A; Cherry, Charlotte B; Morgan, Douglas R; Alvarez-Rodriguez, Roberto; Bonfield, Christopher M
2017-11-01
Central nervous system (CNS) malformations, including neural tube defects (NTDs), are the second most common type of birth defects worldwide and are major causes of childhood disability and mortality. We report the first analysis of birth prevalence in Western Honduras of CNS malformations including NTDs over 6 consecutive years. Data from all patients with congenital CNS malformations and total live births for the period 2010-2015 were obtained through institution and regional registries from all 3 public referral hospitals in Western Honduras, representing 67 municipalities. Cases were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision CNS malformation codes. Birth prevalence was calculated as cases per 10,000 live births. From 123,903 live births, 275 cases of CNS malformations were identified (54% females, 58% NTDs). Six-year birth prevalence of CNS malformations was 13.9-31.1. Spina bifida variants and anencephaly represented 80% and 19% of reported NTDs, respectively. Total 6-year prevalence of NTDs in Western Honduras was 7.0-17.4 over years studied. In 6 municipalities, average prevalence was >30 (maximum 49.0). This is the first study reporting disease burden of CNS malformations in Western Honduras. The nationwide birth prevalence of NTDs in rural Honduras may have decreased since the implementation of prenatal health policies in 2005. However, we identified regions with unexpectedly elevated prevalence, indicating high regional prevalence that could be targeted for improved preventive efforts, ultimately decreasing the burden of these conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Woodman, Neal; Matson, John O.; McCarthy, Timothy J.; Eckerlin, Ralph P.; Bulmer, Walter; Ordonez-Garza, Nicte
2012-01-01
Short term surveys for small mammals in Guatemala and Honduras during 1992–2009 provided important new records for 12 taxa of shrews from 24 localities. These locality records expand the known geographic distributions for five species and for the genus Sorex Linnaeus, 1758: the geographic range of Cryptotis goodwini Jackson, 1933, now includes the Sierra de las Minas, Guatemala, and several isolated highlands in western Honduras; the known distribution of Cryptotis mayensis (Merriam, 1901) is increased with the first definite modern record for this shrew from Guatemala; Cryptotis merriami Choate, 1970, is now known to occur in the Sierra de las Minas and the Sierra del Merendon, Guatemala, as well as the isolated Sierra de Omoa and Montana de La Muralla in Honduras, and its documented elevational range (600–1720 m) is expanded; records of Sorex veraepacis Alston, 1877, expand the known distribution of this species to include the Sierra de Yalijux, Guatemala; and discovery of Sorex salvini Merriam, 1897, at Celaque, Honduras (1825–3110 m), represents a considerable extension of the geographic range of the species, and it is the first record of the genus Sorex from Honduras. In addition, the first record of potential syntopy among C. goodwini, C merriami, and Cryptotis orophilus (J.A. Allen, 1895), is reported at an elevation of 1430 m in the Sierra de Celaque, Honduras. Information associated with these records contributes substantially to knowledge of habitat use, elevational distributions, reproductive patterns, diet, and parasites of the species encountered. General patterns include the first evidence that Neotropical species of soricids have smaller litters than their temperate congeners.
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Can Maquila Booms Reduce Poverty? Evidence from Honduras
de Hoyos, Rafael E.; Bussolo, Maurizio; Nunez, Oscar
2008-01-01
This paper identifies and estimates the strength of the reduction in poverty linked to improved opportunities for women in the expanding maquila sector. A simulation exercise shows that, at a given point in time, poverty in Honduras would have been 1.5 percentage points higher had the maquila sector not existed. Of this increase in poverty, 0.35 percentage points is attributable to the wag...
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Developing a longitudinal cancer nursing education program in Honduras.
Sheldon, Lisa Kennedy; Wise, Barbara; Carlson, Julie R; Dowds, Cynthia; Sarchet, Vanessa; Sanchez, Jose Angel
2013-12-01
The present paper is a longitudinal study which aims to develop and deliver cancer nursing education conferences in Honduras using volunteer nurse educators. This program intends to (1) perform site assessments of work environments and resources for cancer care in Honduras, (2) develop cancer nursing education programs, (3) survey conference participants continuing education needs, (4) deliver cancer nursing education conferences, and (5) share data with local and global partners for future cancer programs. The study draws on a longitudinal program development with site assessments, data collection, and educational conferences at two time points. Assessments and surveys were used for conference development and delivery by volunteer nurse educators. Site assessments and conferences were delivered twice. Data were collected regarding assessments and surveys to inform program development. Survey data revealed that 65 % had internet access. Participants desired more information about handling of chemotherapy, symptom management, and palliative care. Volunteer nurse educators perform site assessments and develop educational programming for cancer nurses. Local and global partners should explore internet-based programs between site visits to create sustainable education programs.
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[A school program for dengue control in Honduras: from knowledge to action].
Avila Montes, Gustavo Adolfo; Araujo, Roxana; Leontsini, Elli; Orellana Herrera, Gabriel; Fernández Cerna, Eduardo
2012-06-01
The Environmental School Program (PEA, for its Spanish acronym), a dengue control initiative focused on primary schools that took place during 2005-2010 in several cities in Honduras, is described. The environmental health program was designed to increase knowledge and develop skills in the identification and control of Aedes aegypti breeding sites, as well as in water and solid waste management. The results, as measured by behavioral change and reduced larval indices, were satisfactory in the majority of the participating schools. The initiative involved not only children, but also their parents and teachers. In addition to reducing larval indices, PEA was successful in promoting community participation in environmental issues, particularly Aedes control. The inclusion of this educational content in the primary school curriculum in Honduras remains pending.
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First report of "Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum" infecting eggplant in Honduras
In May of 2012, eggplant (Solanum melongena) plants in an experimental research plot located at Zamorano in the Department of Francisco Morazán, Honduras, were observed with symptoms that included leaf chlorosis and cupping, overall stunting, and production of small and malformed fruits. The researc...
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Jovel, Irina T; Mejía, Rosa E; Banegas, Engels; Piedade, Rita; Alger, Jackeline; Fontecha, Gustavo; Ferreira, Pedro E; Veiga, Maria I; Enamorado, Irma G; Bjorkman, Anders; Ursing, Johan
2011-12-19
In Honduras, chloroquine and primaquine are recommended and still appear to be effective for treatment of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of resistance associated genetic polymorphisms in P. falciparum and P. vivax collected in Honduras. Blood samples were collected from patients seeking medical attention at the Hospital Escuela in Tegucigalpa from 2004 to 2006 as well as three regional hospitals, two health centres and one regional laboratory during 2009. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in P. falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter (pfcrt), multidrug resistance 1 (pfmdr1), dihydrofolate reductase (pfdhfr) and dihydropteroate synthase (pfdhps) genes and in P. vivax multidrug resistance 1 (pvmdr1) and dihydrofolate reductase (pvdhfr) genes were detected using PCR based methods. Thirty seven P. falciparum and 64 P. vivax samples were collected. All P. falciparum infections acquired in Honduras carried pfcrt, pfmdr1, pfdhps and pfdhfr alleles associated with chloroquine, amodiaquine and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine sensitivity only. One patient with parasites acquired on a Pacific Island had pfcrt 76 T and pfmdr1 86Y alleles. That patient and a patient infected in West Africa had pfdhfr 51I, 59 R and 108 N alleles. Pvmdr1 976 F was found in 7/37 and two copies of pvmdr1 were found in 1/37 samples. Pvdhfr 57 L + 58 R was observed in 2/57 samples. The results indicate that P. falciparum from Honduras remain sensitive to chloroquine and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine. This suggests that chloroquine and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine should be efficacious for treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, supporting current national treatment guidelines. However, genetic polymorphisms associated with chloroquine and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine tolerance were detected in local P. vivax and imported P. falciparum infections. Continuous monitoring of the prevalence of drug resistant/tolerant P
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Examining the cost of delivering routine immunization in Honduras.
Janusz, Cara Bess; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos; Molina Aguilera, Ida Berenice; Felix Garcia, Ana Gabriela; Mendoza, Lourdes; Díaz, Iris Yolanda; Resch, Stephen C
2015-05-07
Many countries have introduced new vaccines and expanded their immunization programs to protect additional risk groups, thus raising the cost of routine immunization delivery. Honduras recently adopted two new vaccines, and the country continues to broaden the reach of its program to adolescents and adults. In this article, we estimate and examine the economic cost of the Honduran routine immunization program for the year 2011. The data were gathered from a probability sample of 71 health facilities delivering routine immunization, as well as 8 regional and 1 central office of the national immunization program. Data were collected on vaccinations delivered, staff time dedicated to the program, cold chain equipment and upkeep, vehicle use, infrastructure, and other recurrent and capital costs at each health facility and administrative office. Annualized economic costs were estimated from a modified societal perspective and reported in 2011 US dollars. With the addition of rotavirus and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, the total cost for routine immunization delivery in Honduras for 2011 was US$ 32.5 million. Vaccines and related supplies accounted for 23% of the costs. Labor, cold chain, and vehicles represented 54%, 4%, and 1%, respectively. At the facility level, the non-vaccine system costs per dose ranged widely, from US$ 25.55 in facilities delivering fewer than 500 doses per year to US$ 2.84 in facilities with volume exceeding 10,000 doses per year. Cost per dose was higher in rural facilities despite somewhat lower wage rates for health workers in these settings; this appears to be driven by lower demand for services per health worker in sparsely populated areas, rather than increased cost of outreach. These more-precise estimates of the operational costs to deliver routine immunizations provide program managers with important information for mobilizing resources to help sustain the program and for improving annual planning and budgeting as well as longer
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Jewel scarabs (Chrysina sp.) in Honduras: key species for cloud forest conservation monitoring?
Jocque, M; Vanhove, M P M; Creedy, T J; Burdekin, O; Nuñez-Miño, J M; Casteels, J
2013-01-01
Jewel scarabs, beetles in the genus Chrysina Kirby (Coleoptera: Rutelinae: Scarabaeidae), receive their name from the bright, often gold, green elytra that reflect light like a precious stone. Jewel scarabs are commonly observed at light traps in Mesoamerican cloud forests, and their association with mountain forests makes them potentially interesting candidates for cloud forest conservation monitoring. The absence of survey protocols and identification tools, and the little ecological information available are barriers. In the present study, collection of Chrysina species assembled during biodiversity surveys by Operation Wallacea in Cusuco National Park (CNP), Honduras, were studied. The aim of this overview is to provide an easy to use identification tool for in the field, hopefully stimulating data collection on these beetles. Based on the data associated with the collection localities, elevation distribution of the species in the park was analyzed. The limited data points available were complemented with potential distribution areas generated with distribution models based on climate and elevation data. This study is aimed at initializing the development of a survey protocol for Chrysina species that can be used in cloud forest conservation monitoring throughout Central America. A list of Chrysina species recorded from Honduras so far is provided. The six identified and one unidentified species recorded from CNP are easy to identify in the field based on color and straightforward morphological characteristics. Literature research revealed ten species currently recorded from Honduras. This low species richness in comparison with surrounding Central American countries indicates the poor knowledge of this genus in Honduras. Chrysina species richness in CNP increases with elevation, thereby making the genus one of a few groups of organisms where this correlation is observed, and rendering it a suitable invertebrate representative for cloud forest habitats in
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Etno-demografía de la étnia pech, Honduras
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juan Carlos Vargas Aguilar
2006-01-01
Full Text Available En este trabajo se discute la metodología y hallazgos de un estudio, bajo la modalidad etno-demográfica, de la étnia pech en el oriente de Honduras, diseminada en trece comunidades en los departamentos de Olancho, Colón y Gracias a Dios. Se realizó un censo de población como parte de una metodología aplicable a los diferentes grupos étnicos. La metodología empleada busca mostrar las posibilidades e importancia de relacionar variables demográfico-estadísticas con variables culturales bajo un análisis integrado logrando "relacionar las variables culturales con el comportamiento demográfico y las tendencias poblacionales" (Valdés, L.,1988. Se discuten también las diferentes preguntas para la determinación de la población étnica, en sus limitaciones y potencialidades. El trabajo de campo del estudio fue realizado bajo convenio de la Unidad de Docencia e Investigación en Población (UDIP de la Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras y el Instituto Hondureño de Antropología e Historia (IHAH en 1994. Se emplean además algunos datos del censo de población más reciente en Honduras (2001, como punto de comparación y análisis del comportamiento demográfico de este grupo étnico. En los territorios de la etnia, en 1994 se contabilizaron 2079 personas (1020 hombres y 1059 mujeres, y para el último censo nacional (2001 la componían 3141 personas (1523 hombres y 1618 mujeres.
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Rico, Emily; Fenn, Bridget; Abramsky, Tanya; Watts, Charlotte
2011-04-01
If effective interventions are to be used to address child mortality and malnutrition, then it is important that we understand the different pathways operating within the framework of child health. More attention needs to be given to understanding the contribution of social influences such as intimate partner violence (IPV). To investigate the relationship between maternal exposure to IPV and child mortality and malnutrition using data from five developing countries. Population data from Egypt, Honduras, Kenya, Malawi and Rwanda were analysed. Logistic regression analysis was used to generate odds ratios of the associations between several categories of maternal exposure to IPV since the age of 15 and three child outcomes: under-2-year-old (U2) mortality and moderate and severe stunting (Honduras) to 46.2% (Kenya). For child stunting, prevalence ranged from 25.4% (Egypt) to 58.0% (Malawi) and for U2 mortality from 3.6% (Honduras) to 15.2% (Rwanda). In Kenya, maternal exposure to IPV was associated with higher U2 mortality (adjusted odds ratio (OR)=1.42, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.71) and child stunting (adjusted OR=1.36, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.61). In Malawi and Honduras, marginal associations were observed between IPV and severe stunting and U2 mortality, respectively, with strength of associations varying by type of violence. The relationship between IPV and U2 mortality and stunting in Kenya, Honduras and Malawi suggests that, in these countries, IPV plays a role in child malnutrition and mortality. This contributes to a growing body of evidence that broader public health benefits may be incurred if efforts to address IPV are incorporated into a wider range of maternal and child health programmes; however, the authors highlight the need for more research that can establish temporality, use data collected on the basis of the study's objectives, and further explore the causal framework of this relationship using more advanced statistical analysis.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gustavo Adolfo Ávila Montes
2012-06-01
Full Text Available Se describe el Programa Escolar Ambiental (PEA, una iniciativa de control de dengue enfocada en el ámbito de la escuela -primaria durante el -período de 2005-2010 en varias ciudades de Honduras. El programa fue diseñado para generar mayor conocimiento y destreza en la identificación y el control de criaderos de Aedes aegypti dentro de un contexto de salud ambiental, que incluía además el manejo del agua y los desechos sólidos. Los resultados en él cambio de comportamiento y en la reducción de los índices larvarios fueron satisfactorios en la mayoría de las escuelas que formaron parte de la experiencia, lográndose la participación de los niños, y también de sus padres y maestros. El PEA resultó efectivo además de la reducción de los índices larvarios, en la promoción de la participación comunitaria en temas ambientales con énfasis en el control de Aedes. La inclusión de estos contenidos educativos en el currículo de educación primaria es una asignatura aún pendiente en Honduras.The Environmental School Program (PEA, for its Spanish acronym, a dengue control initiative focused on primary schools that took place during 2005-2010 in several cities in Honduras, is described. The environmental health program was designed to increase knowledge and develop skills in the identification and control of Aedes aegypti breeding sites, as well as in water and solid waste management. The results, as measured by behavioral change and reduced larval indices, were satisfactory in the majority of the participating schools. The initiative involved not only children, but also their parents and teachers. In addition to reducing larval indices, PEA was successful in promoting community participation in environmental issues, particularly Aedes control. The inclusion of this educational content in the primary school curriculum in Honduras remains pending.
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Social Integration and Health Behavioral Change in San Luis, Honduras
McQuestion, Michael J.; Calle, Ana Quijano; Drasbek, Christopher; Harkins, Thomas; Sagastume, Lourdes J.
2010-01-01
This study explores the effects of social integration on behavioral change in the course of an intensive, community-based public health intervention. The intervention trained volunteers and mobilized local organizations to promote 16 key family health practices in rural San Luis, Honduras, during 2004 to 2006. A mixed methods approach is used.…
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Nuevos registros para la flora de Honduras y el Parque Nacional Montaña de Celaque.
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Hermes Vega
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Se registran 11 novedades para la flora de Honduras a partir de ejemplares recolectados en el Parque Nacional Montaña Celaque. Los nuevos registros son: Tillandsia mateoensis (Bromeliaceae, Diastema affine (Gesneriaceae, Scutellaria costaricana (Lamiaceae, Miconia contrerasii (Melastomataceae, Acianthera violacea, Dendrophylax porrectus, Epidendrum santaclarense, Lepanthes enca-barcenae, L. fratercula, L. isabelae y Sarcoglottis schaffneri (Orchidaceae. Por otra parte, Potosia guatemalensis es sinonimizado bajo S. schaffneri. Se incluyen fotos de todas las especies, hábitats y un mapa de distribución con sus localidades en Honduras.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ana Lourdes Sanchez
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Background: In Honduras, research capacity strengthening (RCS has not received sufficient attention, but an increase in research competencies would enable local scientists to advance knowledge and contribute to national priorities, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs. Objective: This project aimed at strengthening research capacity in infectious diseases in Honduras, focusing on the School of Microbiology of the National Autonomous University of Honduras (UNAH. The primary objective was the creation of a research-based graduate program for the continued training of researchers. Parallel objectives included institutional strengthening and the facilitation of partnerships and networks. Methods: Based on a multi-stakeholder consultation, an RCS workplan was designed and undertaken from 2007 to 2012. Due to unexpected adverse circumstances, the first 2 years were heavily dedicated to implementing the project's flagship, an MSc program in infectious and zoonotic diseases (MEIZ. In addition, infrastructure improvements and demand-driven continuing education opportunities were facilitated; biosafety and research ethics knowledge and practices were enhanced, and networks fostering collaborative work were created or expanded. Results: The project coincided with the peak of UNAH's radical administrative reform and an unprecedented constitutional crisis. Challenges notwithstanding, in September 2009, MEIZ admitted the first cohort of students, all of whom undertook MDG-related projects graduating successfully by 2012. Importantly, MEIZ has been helpful in expanding the School of Microbiology's traditional etiology-based, disciplinary model to infectious disease teaching and research. By fulfilling its objectives, the project contributed to a stronger research culture upholding safety and ethical values at the university. Conclusions: The resources and strategic vision afforded by the project enhanced UNAH's overall research capacity and its
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Sanchez, Ana Lourdes; Canales, Maritza; Enriquez, Lourdes; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Zelaya, Ada Argentina; Espinoza, Vilma Esther; Fontecha, Gustavo Adolfo
2013-01-01
Background In Honduras, research capacity strengthening (RCS) has not received sufficient attention, but an increase in research competencies would enable local scientists to advance knowledge and contribute to national priorities, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Objective This project aimed at strengthening research capacity in infectious diseases in Honduras, focusing on the School of Microbiology of the National Autonomous University of Honduras (UNAH). The primary objective was the creation of a research-based graduate program for the continued training of researchers. Parallel objectives included institutional strengthening and the facilitation of partnerships and networks. Methods Based on a multi-stakeholder consultation, an RCS workplan was designed and undertaken from 2007 to 2012. Due to unexpected adverse circumstances, the first 2 years were heavily dedicated to implementing the project's flagship, an MSc program in infectious and zoonotic diseases (MEIZ). In addition, infrastructure improvements and demand-driven continuing education opportunities were facilitated; biosafety and research ethics knowledge and practices were enhanced, and networks fostering collaborative work were created or expanded. Results The project coincided with the peak of UNAH's radical administrative reform and an unprecedented constitutional crisis. Challenges notwithstanding, in September 2009, MEIZ admitted the first cohort of students, all of whom undertook MDG-related projects graduating successfully by 2012. Importantly, MEIZ has been helpful in expanding the School of Microbiology's traditional etiology-based, disciplinary model to infectious disease teaching and research. By fulfilling its objectives, the project contributed to a stronger research culture upholding safety and ethical values at the university. Conclusions The resources and strategic vision afforded by the project enhanced UNAH's overall research capacity and its potential contribution
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Sanchez, Ana Lourdes; Canales, Maritza; Enriquez, Lourdes; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Zelaya, Ada Argentina; Espinoza, Vilma Esther; Fontecha, Gustavo Adolfo
2013-08-07
In Honduras, research capacity strengthening (RCS) has not received sufficient attention, but an increase in research competencies would enable local scientists to advance knowledge and contribute to national priorities, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). This project aimed at strengthening research capacity in infectious diseases in Honduras, focusing on the School of Microbiology of the National Autonomous University of Honduras (UNAH). The primary objective was the creation of a research-based graduate program for the continued training of researchers. Parallel objectives included institutional strengthening and the facilitation of partnerships and networks. Based on a multi-stakeholder consultation, an RCS workplan was designed and undertaken from 2007 to 2012. Due to unexpected adverse circumstances, the first 2 years were heavily dedicated to implementing the project's flagship, an MSc program in infectious and zoonotic diseases (MEIZ). In addition, infrastructure improvements and demand-driven continuing education opportunities were facilitated; biosafety and research ethics knowledge and practices were enhanced, and networks fostering collaborative work were created or expanded. The project coincided with the peak of UNAH's radical administrative reform and an unprecedented constitutional crisis. Challenges notwithstanding, in September 2009, MEIZ admitted the first cohort of students, all of whom undertook MDG-related projects graduating successfully by 2012. Importantly, MEIZ has been helpful in expanding the School of Microbiology's traditional etiology-based, disciplinary model to infectious disease teaching and research. By fulfilling its objectives, the project contributed to a stronger research culture upholding safety and ethical values at the university. The resources and strategic vision afforded by the project enhanced UNAH's overall research capacity and its potential contribution to the MDGs. Furthermore, increased research
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Gangs in Honduras: A Threat to National Security
2012-03-22
police, judiciary and political elites. In some parts of the country, “drug cartels act as de facto authority and there is evidence of a training camp...practical to politicians…to expect the military to solve the problem by force, nor is it practical for the military to plan and execute a purely military...Honduras: Tegucigalpa, National Defense College and El Salvador University, October 30, 2007), http://cdn.U.S.alnet.org/ tesis /files/osorio.pdf
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Teachers and Taxis: Corruption in the Education Sector in Honduras
Fontana, Alessandra
2008-01-01
Honduras invests large sums in education,but powerful teachers' unions and political appointments hinder reforms in a sector vulnerable to corruption and lacking in civil society monitoring. For current decentralisation plans to impact positively on education services, local auditing skills need to be improved, parents must be given a bigger role, and unions must adhere to codes of conduct.
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Using "EC-Assess" to Assess a Small Biofuels Project in Honduras
Ngassa, Franklin Chamda
2010-01-01
Biofuels may contribute to both rural economic development and climate change mitigation and adaptation. The Gota Verde Project in Yoro, Honduras, attempts to demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of small-scale biofuel production for local use by implementing a distinctive approach to feedstock production that encourages small farm…
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Violent Crime: A Comparative Study of Honduras and Nicaragua
2009-03-01
franchisees , or exclusive distributors of U.S. products. The largest are in energy, financial services, apparel, manufacturing, and fisheries.”16...expected benefits greater than expected costs; (3) rational preventive war; (4) rational miscalculation due to lack of information; and (5) rational...Football War” between El Salvador and Honduras where, in this instance, both sides may have expected greater benefit than costs. This kind of war is the
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Updating peasant competencies to mitigate poverty in the Chorti community, Copan (Honduras
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Álvaro Rivas
2010-12-01
Full Text Available The Copan department of Honduras has a low Human Development Index (HDI 0.56 but it is very rich in hydric resources, all ranges in temperature, ecosystems, agricultural and livestock biodiversity, and rural knowledge because its original Mayan ethnic groups (Chorti and Lencas, and mixed race peasants. This article analyzes and evaluates the strategies used in the components of rural production and management of the basin of the Project 'Local Self-managed Development for Poverty Reduction in North Copán, Honduras' (NCP that worked with the Multifunctional Agriculture (MFA approach between 2003 and 2007. The main results were: To promote agro-ecological management innovations, creation of two funds to improve the farmers production, environmental protection of the basins, to consider the hydric and eco-systemic services in the management of the territory, to reassess social learning systems as the extension methodology “farmer to farmer”
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Honduras | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le développement ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
Honduras. Le CRDI appuie des chercheurs honduriens depuis 1978. Les premiers travaux ont porté sur l'amélioration des cultures et des systèmes culturaux. Les techniques qui en ont résulté ont accru les rendements des cultures vivrières de base et des cultures de rapport, et les agriculteurs les ont rapidement adoptées.
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Water sanitation, access, use and self-reported diarrheal disease in rural Honduras.
Halder, Gabriela E; Bearman, Gonzalo; Sanogo, Kakotan; Stevens, Michael P
2013-01-01
Only 79% of individuals living in rural Honduras use improved water sources. Inadequate drinking water quality is related to diarrheal illness, which in Honduras contributes to 18.6 episodes of diarrhea per child year in children under five years of age. The purpose of this study was to examine and compare access to drinking water and sanitation, as well as self-reported diarrheal disease incidence among three proximal communities in the Department of Yoro area of Honduras. An 11-item language-specific, interviewer-administered, anonymous questionnaire was administered to 263 randomly selected adults attending a June 2011 medical brigade held in the communities of Coyoles, La Hicaca, and Lomitas. Chi-square with Fisher exact tests were utilized to compare water access, sanitation, and self-reported diarrheal incidence among these communities. Coyoles and La Hicaca used private faucets as their primary water sources. Coyoles had the greatest use of bottled water. Lomitas used rivers as their primary water source, and did not use bottled water. Mostly, females were responsible for acquiring water. Usage of multiple water sanitation methods was most common in Coyoles, while no sanitation method was most common in Lomitas. In Lomitas and La Hicaca, water filters were mostly provided via donation by non-governmental organizations. Lomitas had the highest reported incidence of diarrhea among self and other household members. Critical differences in water access, sanitation, and self-reported diarrheal incidence among three geographically distinct, yet proximal, communities highlights the need for targeted interventions even in geographically proximal rural areas.
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Parham, Leda; de Rivera, Ivette Lorenzana; Murillo, Wendy; Naver, Lars; Largaespada, Natalia; Albert, Jan; Karlsson, Annika C
2011-10-01
Antiretroviral therapy has had a great impact on the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV-1. However, development of drug resistance, which could be subsequently transmitted to the child, is a major concern. In Honduras and Belize the prevalence of drug resistance among HIV-1-infected children remains unknown. A total of 95 dried blood spot samples was obtained from HIV-1-infected, untreated children in Honduras and Belize born during 2001 to 2004, when preventive antiretroviral therapy was often suboptimal and consisted of monotherapy with nevirapine or zidovudine. Partial HIV-1 pol gene sequences were successfully obtained from 66 children (Honduras n=55; Belize n=11). Mutations associated with drug resistance were detected in 13% of the Honduran and 27% of the Belizean children. Most of the mutations detected in Honduras (43%) and all mutations detected in Belize were associated with resistance to nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, which was expected from the wide use of nevirapine to prevent MTCT during the study period. In addition, although several mothers reported that they had not received antiretroviral therapy, mutations associated with resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and protease inhibitors were found in Honduras. This suggests prior and unreported use of these drugs, or that these women had been infected with resistant virus. The present study demonstrates, for the first time, the presence of drug resistance-associated mutations in HIV-1-infected Honduran and Belizean children.
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2013-06-13
Estado Mayor del Ejército de EE. UU. En cumplimiento parcial de los requisitos para la obtención del grado de MAESTRÍA EN CIENCIAS Y ARTES MILITARES...Estudios Generales Por WALTER D. HERNANDEZ CARVAJAL, MAYOR DEL EJÉRCITO DE HONDURAS Licenciado en Ciencias Militares...Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 ii MAESTRÍA EN ARTES Y CIENCIAS MILITARES PÁGINA DE APROBACIÓN DE LA TESIS Nombre del
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rosa Camila Matute
2008-08-01
Full Text Available The recreational use of alcohol is very frequent in the life of college students. A descriptive study was carried out with nursing students in Honduras, where the use of psychoactive substances represents a considerable health problem, especially the use of alcohol. This study identified that 74.9% were abstinent. Nevertheless, the study focused on drinkers, whose consumption pattern may be changing over time. According to the sample characteristics, most subjects were young working women, students, and Christians. These variables should be considered in the investigation of protective factors against drinking, and in designing preventive actions in the university context.El uso recreativo de alcohol esta muy presente en la vida de los universitarios. Por medio de un estudio descriptivo entre estudiantes de enfermería en Honduras se encontró que el uso de sustancias psicoactivas producen un gran daño a la salud, principalmente el uso de alcohol. En el presente estudio, se identificó que el 74.9% era abstemio, pero nuestra atención se volvió hacia los bebedores, porque estos a lo largo del tiempo pueden estar cambiando su patrón de consumo. En la caracterización de la muestra, se encontró que la mayoría eran jóvenes, evangélicas, que estudian y trabajan. Esos son variables de consideración para una mejor exploración de los factores de protección de bebedores y el planteamiento de acciones preventivas en el contexto universitario.O consumo de álcool, de forma recreacional, está muito presente na vida dos universitários. Através de estudo descritivo com estudantes de enfermagem em Honduras, foi descoberto que o uso de substâncias psicoativas representa um grande problema para a saúde, principalmente o uso do álcool. Identificamos, no presente estudo, que 74,9% eram abstinentes, porém, a nossa atenção se voltou aos consumidores, pois estes ao longo do tempo podem estar mudando seu padrão de consumo. Na caracterização da
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National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Gulland, J. A
1977-01-01
This book describes how the dynamics of fish populations can be analysed in terms of the factors affecting their rates of growth, mortality and reproduction, with particular emphasis on the effects of fishing...
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Population dynamics at high Reynolds number
Perlekar, P.; Benzi, R.; Nelson, D.R.; Toschi, F.
2010-01-01
We study the statistical properties of population dynamics evolving in a realistic two-dimensional compressible turbulent velocity field. We show that the interplay between turbulent dynamics and population growth and saturation leads to quasi-localization and a remarkable reduction in the carrying
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Potential impacts of climate variability on dengue hemorrhagic fever in Honduras, 2010.
Zambrano, L I; Sevilla, C; Reyes-García, S Z; Sierra, M; Kafati, R; Rodriguez-Morales, A J; Mattar, S
2012-12-01
Climate change and variability are affecting human health and disease direct or indirectly through many mechanisms. Dengue is one of those diseases that is strongly influenced by climate variability; however its study in Central America has been poorly approached. In this study, we assessed potential associations between macroclimatic and microclimatic variation and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases in the main hospital of Honduras during 2010. In this year, 3,353 cases of DHF were reported in the Hospital Escuela, Tegucigalpa. Climatic periods marked a difference of 158% in the mean incidence of cases, from El Niño weeks (-99% of cases below the mean incidence) to La Niña months (+59% of cases above it) (pHonduras. However, it is necessary to extend these studies in this and other countries in the Central America region, because these models can be applied for surveillance as well as for prediction of dengue.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Morales, J. Francisco
2009-12-01
Full Text Available A treatment of the subfamilies Apocynoideae and Rauvol - fioideae (Apocynaceae in Honduras, is presented. A total of 55 species in 30 genera (Allamanda, Allomarkgrafia, Anechites, Aspidosperma, Beaumontia, Carissa, Cascabela, Catharanthus, Echites, Fernaldia, Forsteronia, Lacmellea, Macropharynx, Malouetia, Mandevilla, Mesechites, Nerium, Odontadenia, Pentalinon, Plumeria, Prestonia, Rauvolfia, Rhabdadenia, Stemmadenia, Tabernaemontana, Thenardia, Thevetia, Tintinnabularia, Tonduzia, Vallesia are treated. Echites, Mandevilla, Prestonia, and Tabernaemontana are the most representative genera. Descriptions, keys, data on ecology, distribution, phenology, common names as well as lists of specimens examined are provided. Photographs are provided for the majority of species. The presence in Honduras of Allomarkgrafia plumeriiflora, Anechites nerium, Macropharynx renteriae, Stemmadenia eubracteata and Thenardia chiapensis is reported here for the first time.
Se presenta un tratamiento de las subfamilias Apocynoideae y Rauvolfioideae (Apocynaceae en la República de Honduras, Centroamérica. Un total de 55 especies distribuidas en 30 géneros (Allamanda, Allomarkgrafia, Anechites, Aspidosperma, Beaumontia, Carissa, Cascabela, Catharanthus, Echites, Fernaldia, Forsteronia, Lacmellea, Macropharynx, Malouetia, Mandevilla, Mesechites, Nerium, Odontadenia, Pentalinon, Plumeria, Prestonia, Rauvolfia, Rhabdadenia, Stemmadenia, Tabernaemontana, Thenardia, Thevetia, Tintinnabularia, Tonduzia, Vallesia son tratadas, siendo Echites, Mandevilla, Prestonia, Tabernaemontana y Thevetia los más representativos. Se brindan descripciones, claves, datos de ecología, distribución, fenología, nombres comunes y especímenes examinados, así como fotografías para la mayoría de ellas. Se reporta por primera vez la presencia de Allomarkgrafia plumeriiflora, Anechites nerium, Macropharynx renteriae -
Dynamical systems in population biology
Zhao, Xiao-Qiang
2017-01-01
This research monograph provides an introduction to the theory of nonautonomous semiflows with applications to population dynamics. It develops dynamical system approaches to various evolutionary equations such as difference, ordinary, functional, and partial differential equations, and pays more attention to periodic and almost periodic phenomena. The presentation includes persistence theory, monotone dynamics, periodic and almost periodic semiflows, basic reproduction ratios, traveling waves, and global analysis of prototypical population models in ecology and epidemiology. Research mathematicians working with nonlinear dynamics, particularly those interested in applications to biology, will find this book useful. It may also be used as a textbook or as supplementary reading for a graduate special topics course on the theory and applications of dynamical systems. Dr. Xiao-Qiang Zhao is a University Research Professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. His main research interests involve applied...
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Allee effects on population dynamics with delay
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Celik, C.; Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.
2008-01-01
In this paper, we study the stability analysis of equilibrium points of population dynamics with delay when the Allee effect occurs at low population density. Mainly, our mathematical results and numerical simulations point to the stabilizing effect of the Allee effects on population dynamics with delay
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Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics.
Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei
2018-01-01
In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.
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Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics
Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei
2018-01-01
In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.
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Tobacco plants with symptoms resembling those associated with the psyllid Bactericera cockerelli and the bacterium “Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum” (Lso) were observed in April of 2012 in heavily B. cockerelli-infested commercial fields in the Department of El-Paraíso, Honduras; all cultivars ...
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Death in the Afternoon: Honduras, Hemingway, and Duncan Strong
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas W. Cuddy
2002-11-01
Full Text Available Archaeologist William Duncan Strong and author Ernest Hemingway are both known for the exemplary works they produced in their respective fields. Most people don't know the shared similarities in the parallel lives of these two men, and the greater social forces that shaped them. This essay takes a Hemingway-like approach to the life of Duncan Strong, using excerpts from Strong's expedition to Honduras in 1933 to draw analogy with the publicly renowned life of Ernest Hemingway.
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Honduras: el periodismo de investigación da sus primeros pasos
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Juan Ramón Durán
2010-03-01
Full Text Available El periodismo de investigación se inició en Honduras con un análisis de casos de los periódicos El Heraldo y La Tribuna (2009. Efectuada la investigación la prensa hondureña tiene un enorme desafío generar un trabajo que le permita graduarse en periodismo de investigación.
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New geochemical investigations in Platanares and Azacualpa geothermal sites (Honduras)
Barberi, Franco; Carapezza, Maria Luisa; Cioni, Roberto; Lelli, Matteo; Menichini, Matia; Ranaldi, Massimo; Ricci, Tullio; Tarchini, Luca
2013-05-01
Platanares and Azacualpa geothermal sites of Honduras are located in an inner part of the Caribbean Plate far from the active volcanic front of Central America. Here geology indicates that there are not the conditions for the occurrence of shallow magmatic heat sources for high-enthalpy geothermal resources. Geothermal perspectives are related to the possibility of a deep circulation of meteoric water along faults and the storage of the heated fluid in fractured permeable reservoirs. Geochemical geothermometers indicate a temperature for the deeper part of the geothermal reservoir close to 200 °C for Platanares and of 150-170 °C for Azacualpa. Calcite scaling, with subordinate silica deposition has to be expected in both sites. CO2 soil flux investigations have been carried out in both areas and reveal the presence of positive anomalies likely corresponding to the presence at depth of fractured degassing geothermal reservoirs. Compared with the geothermal areas of Central Italy whose reservoirs are hosted in carbonate rocks, e.g. Latera (Chiodini et al., 2007), the CO2 soil flux measured in Honduras is significantly lower (mean of 17 g/m2day at Platanares and of 163 g/m2day at Azacualpa) probably because of the dominant silicate nature of the deep reservoirs.
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Fiers, Frank; Jocque, Merlijn
2013-01-01
Five different species of Copepoda were extracted from a leaf litter sample collected on the top (at 2000 m a.s.l.) of a cloud forested mountain in El Cusuco National Park, Honduras. Three of them, one Cyclopidae and two Canthocamptidae are new to science, and are described herein. Olmeccyclops hondo sp. nov. is the second representative thus far known of this New World genus. Moraria catracha sp. nov. and Moraria cusuca sp. nov. are the first formally described members of the genus occurring in Central America. The concept of a "Moraria-group" is considered to be an artificial grouping and is limited here to the genera Moraria and Morariopsis only. The distributional range of this group is essentially Holarctic, with the mountainous regions in Honduras, and probably in west Nicaragua, as the southernmost limits in the New World.
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Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates
Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.
2012-02-01
How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.
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HIV Drug Resistance Surveillance in Honduras after a Decade of Widespread Antiretroviral Therapy.
Avila-Ríos, Santiago; García-Morales, Claudia; Tapia-Trejo, Daniela; Meza, Rita I; Nuñez, Sandra M; Parham, Leda; Flores, Norma A; Valladares, Diana; Pineda, Luisa M; Flores, Dixiana; Motiño, Roxana; Umanzor, Víctor; Carbajal, Candy; Murillo, Wendy; Lorenzana, Ivette; Palou, Elsa Y; Reyes-Terán, Gustavo
2015-01-01
We assessed HIV drug resistance (DR) in individuals failing ART (acquired DR, ADR) and in ART-naïve individuals (pre-ART DR, PDR) in Honduras, after 10 years of widespread availability of ART. 365 HIV-infected, ART-naïve, and 381 ART-experienced Honduran individuals were enrolled in 5 reference centres in Tegucigalpa, San Pedro Sula, La Ceiba, and Choluteca between April 2013 and April 2015. Plasma HIV protease-RT sequences were obtained. HIVDR was assessed using the WHO HIVDR mutation list and the Stanford algorithm. Recently infected (RI) individuals were identified using a multi-assay algorithm. PDR to any ARV drug was 11.5% (95% CI 8.4-15.2%). NNRTI PDR prevalence (8.2%) was higher than NRTI (2.2%) and PI (1.9%, p500 vs. Honduras remains at the intermediate level, after 10 years of widespread availability of ART. Evidence of ADR influencing the presence of PDR was observed by phylogenetic analyses and ADR/PDR mutation frequency correlations.
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Real-Time Evolution of Zika Virus Disease Outbreak, Roatán, Honduras.
Brooks, Trevor; Roy-Burman, Arup; Tuholske, Cascade; Busch, Michael P; Bakkour, Sonia; Stone, Mars; Linnen, Jeffrey M; Gao, Kui; Coleman, Jayleen; Bloch, Evan M
2017-08-01
A Zika virus disease outbreak occurred in Roatán, Honduras, during September 2015-July 2016. Blood samples and clinical information were obtained from 183 patients given a clinical diagnosis of suspected dengue virus infection. A total of 79 patients were positive for Zika virus, 13 for chikungunya virus, and 6 for dengue virus.
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Population dynamics in variable environments
Tuljapurkar, Shripad
1990-01-01
Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to re...
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Rio Navarro, Javier; Cohen, Julien; Rocillo Arechaga, Eva; Zuniga, Edgardo
2012-05-01
To establish the prevalence of exposure to physical and sexual violence, mental health symptoms, and medical treatment-seeking behavior among three street-based subpopulation groups in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, and to assess the association between sociodemographic group, mental health indicators, and exposure to violence. An anonymous, cross-sectional survey among randomly selected street-based adolescents, adults, and commercial sex workers (CSWs) was undertaken at the end of 2010 in Tegucigalpa. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) mapped places where the study population gathers. Stratified probability samples were drawn for all groups, using two-stage random sampling. Trained MSF staff administered on-site standardized face-to-face questionnaires. Self-reported exposure to severe physical violence in the previous year was 20.9% among street-based adolescents, 28.8% among adults, and 30.6% among CSWs. For the physical violence event self-defined as most severe, 50.0% of the adolescents, 81.4% of the adults, and 70.6% of the CSWs sought medical treatment. Their exposure to severe sexual violence was 8.6%, 28.8%, and 59.2%, respectively. After exposure to the self-defined most severe sexual violence event, 14.3% of adolescents, 31.9% of adults, and 29.1% of CSWs sought treatment. Common mental health and substance abuse symptoms were highly prevalent and strongly associated with exposure to physical (odds ratio 4.5, P < 0.0001) and sexual (odds ratio 3.7, P = 0.0001) violence. Exposure to physical and sexual violence reached extreme levels among street-based subpopulations. Treatment-seeking behavior, particularly after severe sexual violence, was limited. The association of mental health and substance abuse symptoms with exposure to violence could lead to further victimization. Medical and psychological treatments targeting these groups are needed and could help decrease their vulnerability.
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Rivera, Samuel; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Keller, Gordon R.
2009-01-01
Testing road surface treatments to reduce erosion in forest roads in Honduras. Cien. Inv. Agr. 36(3):425-432. Using forest roads produces more erosion and sedimentation than any other forest or agricultural activity. This study evaluated soil losses from a forest road in central Honduras over two consecutive years. We divided a 400-m segment of road into 8 experimental units, each 50 m in length. Four units were treated with Best Management Practices (BMPs) and four were left untreated. The BMP treatments included reshaping the road prism, installing culverts and reshaping of road ditches, compacting 20-cm layers of the road tread, crowning the road surface (3% slope, double drainage), longitudinal sloping (less than 12%), and adding a 10-cm layer of gravel (crush size = 0.63 cm). Soil movement was measured daily during the rainy seasons. The highest soil loss occurred in the control road, around 500 m3 km-1 per year, while the road treated with BMP lost approximately 225 m3km-1 per year. These results show that road surface erosion can be reduced up to 50% with the implementation of surface treatments.
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Creating Sustainable Education Projects in Roatán, Honduras through Continuous Process Improvement
Raven, Arjan; Randolph, Adriane B.; Heil, Shelli
2010-01-01
The investigators worked together with permanent residents of Roatán, Honduras on sustainable initiatives to help improve the island's troubled educational programs. Our initiatives focused on increasing the number of students eligible and likely to attend a university. Using a methodology based in continuous process improvement, we developed…
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Population dynamical responses to climate change
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas
2008-01-01
approaches, we analyse concurrently the influence of climatic variability and trophic interactions on the temporal population dynamics of species in the terrestrial vertebrate community at Zackenberg. We describe and contrast the population dynamics of three predator species (arctic fox Alopex lagopus, stoat...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...
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Gimmel, Matthew L; Bocakova, Milada
2015-03-05
A new extant species of Electribius Crowson, E. llamae sp.n., is described from Cusuco National Park, Cortés Province, Honduras. This new species lacks one of the supposed autapomorphies of the genus; therefore the definition of the genus requires modification. A revised key to the known extant species is presented, and their known distributions are mapped.
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An Analysis of Contraceptive Discontinuation among Female, Reversible Method Users in Urban Honduras
Barden-O’Fallon, Janine; Speizer, Ilene S.; Cálix, Javier; Rodriguez, Francisco
2013-01-01
A panel study examining the effects of individual characteristics, side effects experienced, and service quality on contraceptive discontinuation was undertaken in four urban areas of Honduras. Data were collected from October 2006 to December 2007. The baseline population included 800 women aged 15–44 who were new or continuing users of the injectable, IUD, or oral contraceptive pill. A total of 671 women (84%) were re-interviewed after one year. Life tables and Cox proportional hazards models are used to present discontinuation rates and factors associated with contraceptive discontinuation. Among new users, discontinuation of the baseline method at 12 months was high (45%); especially for users of the injectable (50%). In the hazards model, service quality had little effect on discontinuation, while individual characteristics and the experience of specific side effects showed significant effects. The results suggest that programs should emphasize continuous contraceptive coverage rather than continuous use of a particular method. PMID:21500697
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Market Squid Population Dynamics
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains population dynamics data on paralarvae, juvenile and adult market squid collected off California and the US Pacific Northwest. These data were...
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Humanitarian power : Canadian electrical techies help hurricane relief in Honduras
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mallett, N.
1999-01-01
A review of the emergency assistance provided to Honduras by Canada following Hurricane Mitch that struck the country with a ferocity not seen in 200 years, was described. Thousands of Hondurans were killed and three million were left homeless as vast regions of the country were literally washed away. The secondary effects of the storm - famine and disease - set in to claim even more lives. The Canadian Forces' Disaster Response Team (DART) was dispatched to conduct emergency relief operations for up to 40 days in order to bridge the gap until members of the international community arrive to provide long-term help. DART focused on providing medical care, clean drinking water, an engineering capability, and reliable communications. The medical team consisting of a small field hospital with a staff of 45 provided care for up to 500 outpatients and 30 inpatients daily, depending on the severity of injuries. The engineering team of about 40 provided a wide range of services, such as water purification, using a reverse osmosis water purification unit, fresh water distribution and power generation. The communications unit provided contact with headquarters in Honduras, and communicated with bases back in Canada. The operation was a great success, and well received by the Honduran people. This was the first deployment of DART, a team initially conceived after the Canadian Forces participated in relief efforts in Rwanda in 1994 and 1995
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Population dynamics and population control of Galium aparine L.
Weide, van der R.Y.
1993-01-01
The population biology of Galium aparine L. needs to be better understood, in order to be able to rationalize decisions about the short- and long-term control of this weed species for different cropping practices.
A population dynamics model was developed to
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Ignacio R. Mena Cabezas; Lázaro H. Flores Mejía
2007-01-01
La aparición de un movimiento mesiánico y milenarista en el área chortí del norte de Honduras junto con los procesos de etnogénesis indígenas emprendidos sirven de referente etnográfico para analizar y reflexionar sobre las relaciones entre fenómenos sociales, religiosos, políticos e identitarios en el contexto de la globalización en Honduras. Las reivindicaciones económicas, sociales, educativas, sanitarias o las reclamaciones de tierras se reelaboran desde perspectivas étnicas mayas,...
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Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations
Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž
2018-01-01
Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.
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Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff
2013-01-01
The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alvaro Sanchez
Full Text Available The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50-100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators "spiral" to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the
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Intimate partner violence as a predictor of antenatal care service utilization in Honduras.
Sebert Kuhlmann, Anne K; Foggia, Janine; Fu, Qiang; Sierra, Manuel
2017-08-21
To describe the relationship between exposure to physical and/or sexual intimate partner violence (IPV) and indicators of antenatal care (ANC) service utilization among Honduran women of reproductive age. Data from the 2011-2012 Honduras Demographic and Health Survey were analyzed to describe the relationship between self-reported exposure to IPV and two ANC outcomes: (1) sufficient ANC visits (defined by the Honduran Ministry of Health as five or more visits) and (2) early ANC initiation (within the first trimester). Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate effects of physical and sexual IPV on the outcomes, controlling for women's age, education, literacy, residence, household size, religion, parity, wealth, husband's age, and husband's education. Of women who were married, had at least one living child 5 years or younger, and completed the IPV module (N = 6 629), 13.5% of them reported any physical IPV, and 4.1% reported both physical and sexual IPV. There was no significant association between IPV and early ANC; however, a significant relationship between IPV and sufficient ANC was found. Women who experienced any physical IPV (adjusted odds ratios (aOR) = 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.56) or sexual IPV (aOR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.08-2.16) were, respectively, 25% and 53% more likely to receive insufficient ANC. Honduras has one of highest rates of interpersonal violence of any nation in the world. In Honduras, IPV is a contributor to this broader category of interpersonal violence as well as a risk factor for insufficient ANC. Our findings suggest that universal IPV screening during ANC as well as future initiatives aimed at reducing IPV might improve ANC utilization in the country.
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Intimate partner violence as a predictor of antenatal care service utilization in Honduras
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anne K. Sebert Kuhlmann
2017-08-01
Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To describe the relationship between exposure to physical and/or sexual intimate partner violence (IPV and indicators of antenatal care (ANC service utilization among Honduran women of reproductive age. Methods Data from the 2011-2012 Honduras Demographic and Health Survey were analyzed to describe the relationship between self-reported exposure to IPV and two ANC outcomes: (1 sufficient ANC visits (defined by the Honduran Ministry of Health as five or more visits and (2 early ANC initiation (within the first trimester. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate effects of physical and sexual IPV on the outcomes, controlling for women’s age, education, literacy, residence, household size, religion, parity, wealth, husband’s age, and husband’s education. Results Of women who were married, had at least one living child 5 years or younger, and completed the IPV module (N = 6 629, 13.5% of them reported any physical IPV, and 4.1% reported both physical and sexual IPV. There was no significant association between IPV and early ANC; however, a significant relationship between IPV and sufficient ANC was found. Women who experienced any physical IPV (adjusted odds ratios (aOR = 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.00-1.56 or sexual IPV (aOR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.08-2.16 were, respectively, 25% and 53% more likely to receive insufficient ANC. Conclusions Honduras has one of highest rates of interpersonal violence of any nation in the world. In Honduras, IPV is a contributor to this broader category of interpersonal violence as well as a risk factor for insufficient ANC. Our findings suggest that universal IPV screening during ANC as well as future initiatives aimed at reducing IPV might improve ANC utilization in the country.
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Di Gropello, Emanuela; Marshall, Jeffery H.
2011-01-01
We analyze the effectiveness of the Programa Hondureno de Educacion Comunitaria (PROHECO) community school program in rural Honduras. The data include standardized tests and extensive information on school, teacher, classroom and community features for 120 rural schools drawn from 15 states. Using academic achievement decompositions we find that…
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Altschuler, Daniel
2013-01-01
This article shows how patronage politics affects a popular international education model: community-managed schools (CMS). Focusing on Honduras's CMS initiative, PROHECO (Programa Hondureno de Educacion Comunitaria), I demonstrate how patronage can undermine CMS accountability. Whereas supporters argue that CMS increases accountability, partisan…
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juana Carolina Buchanan
2008-08-01
Full Text Available The use of drugs, in Honduras, involves 25% of college students. The most used substances include legal and recreational drugs, such as alcohol. This study aimed to identify the use of drugs and socio-demographic factors in a sample of 260 medical students. RESULTS: Average age of 20 years old, unemployed and religious women, single, with no children. Alcohol was the most consumed drug in the last six months for recreational purposes. The following stimulants were frequently consumed: caffeine, mate herb tea, energetic drinks and Coke. Drugs like marijuana, cocaine, valium and sedatives were used in smaller proportions. The reasons reported by women were: to alleviate tiredness and improve their academic performance. The men's reasons were recreation and to alleviate psychological tension. This research has implications for the development of drugs prevention programs in universities.En Honduras, el uso de drogas está presente en el 25% de estudiantes universitarios. Entre las drogas de mayor consumo están las lícitas y de uso recreacional, las bebidas alcohólicas siendo las lícitas y de uso recreacional, como el caso das bebidas alcohólicas. Ese estudio tuvo como propósito identificar el consumo de drogas y los factores sociodemográficos en una muestra de 260 estudiantes de medicina. RESULTADOS: edad media 20 años, mujeres, solteros, no tiene hijos, no trabajan, profesan religión. La droga más utilizada en los últimos seis meses es el alcohol, con consumo recreacional. Los estimulantes de consumo frecuente: la cafeína, el mate; las bebidas energizantes, la coca-cola; y las drogas ilicitas como la marihuana, la cocaína, el valium y los inductores del sueño en menores proporciones. Las razones de uso para mujeres fueron: aliviar el cansancio, mejorar el rendimiento académico; y para varones: divertirse y aliviar tensiones psicológicas. Esta investigación tiene implicaciones en el desarrollo de programas preventivos del uso de
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Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zak Frentz
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.
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How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.
Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F
2016-02-01
Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.
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The 2013 Elections in Honduras: End of Bipartisanship?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlos Barrachina
2014-06-01
Full Text Available In late 2013 Honduras experienced one of the most important elections in its history. After withdrawal of the presence of Manuel Zelaya in 2009, and the government of Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo (2010-2014, the traditional Honduran bipartisanship and the strong emergence of the "left" in the political scene was first questioned. Besides the Partido Nacional and the Partido Liberal, the Partido Libertad y Refundación and the Partido Anticorrupción have achieved significant results. The party structures of the Partido Nacional and the Partido Liberal, however, have maintained as a key political forces in the Honduran political system, having preserved the political leadership of the country's major cities.
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Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas Anung Basuki
2010-08-01
Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.
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A new species of crinoid-associated Periclimenes from Honduras (Crustacea: Decapoda: Palaemonidae).
De Grave, Sammy
2014-05-02
A new species of crinoid associated Periclimenes, P. rincewindi sp. nov. is described from the Bay Islands (Honduras) in the Caribbean. The species associates with the swimming crinoid, Analcidometra armata and displays a unique colour pattern. Morphologically, the new species is closely related to the other known crinoid associates in the Caribbean, specifically Periclimenes crinoidalis, from which it can be distinguished by a suite of relatively minor morphological features.
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La Persistencia de la Pobreza Rural en Honduras, Nicaragua y Bolivia: un Fracaso del Neoliberalismo
C. Kay (Cristóbal)
2009-01-01
textabstractLos documentos de estrategia de lucha contra la pobreza, preparados por los gobiernos mediante un proceso en el que participan instituciones internacionales y actores de la sociedad civil, no dieron los resultados previstos. El artículo analiza los casos de Honduras, Nicaragua y Bolivia
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hilcia Hernández
2014-11-01
Full Text Available Resumen Este artículo analiza las actitudes lingüísticas de hablantes nativos de español de Tegucigalpa, hacia al español de Honduras y el de los otros países hispanohablantes. El artículo hace parte de los resultados del Proyecto LIAS (Linguistic Identity and Attitudes in Spanish-speaking Latin America, financiado por El Consejo Noruego de Investigación (RCN. La recolección de los datos se realizó en la capital del país, entrevistando a una muestra de 400 informantes estratificada con las variables de edad, sexo y nivel socioeconómico. Se muestran los resultados del análisis cualitativo y cuantitativo desde una perspectiva sociolingüística y dejan al descubierto no solo las actitudes lingüísticas positivas y negativas, sino también expresiones de lealtad por la variedad lingüística nacional, opiniones sobre la corrección lingüística y la alta estima hacia el español de Honduras en relación con el español de los demás países hispanohablantes. Abstract This article analyzes the linguistic attitudes of native Spanish speakers from Tegucigalpa, towards Spanish spoken in Honduras and in the other Spanish-speaking countries. It is a result of the LIAS-Project (Linguistic Identity and Attitudes in Spanish-speaking Latin America, funded by The Research Council of Norway (RCN. The data were gathered in the capital, interviewing a stratified sample of 400 respondents based on the variables of age, sex and socioeconomic status. The results from the qualitative and quantities analysis are drawn using a sociolinguistic perspective and show not only the positive and negative linguistic attitudes towards specific varieties of Spanish, but also expressions of linguistic loyalty towards the national variety of the Spanish language, opinions about linguistic correctness and the high degree of appreciation towards Honduran Spanish compared to the variants of Spanish spoken in the other Spanish-speaking countries.
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Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M
2011-08-01
Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of
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Gregorcic, Marta
2009-01-01
This article introduces case studies of innovative approaches to pedagogy among indigenous Mayan communities in Chiapas (Mexico) and Lencan communities in Intibuca (Honduras). Innovative approaches to researching alternative theories and practices of pedagogy are used by the author to develop an epistemology of critical pedagogy and its potential…
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Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism
Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.
2015-08-01
Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.
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Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.
Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R
2015-08-01
Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.
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Identifying Ancient Settlement Patterns through LiDAR in the Mosquitia Region of Honduras.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christopher T Fisher
Full Text Available The Mosquitia ecosystem of Honduras occupies the fulcrum between the American continents and as such constitutes a critical region for understanding past patterns of socio-political development and interaction. Heavy vegetation, rugged topography, and remoteness have limited scientific investigation. This paper presents prehistoric patterns of settlement and landuse for a critical valley within the Mosquitia derived from airborne LiDAR scanning and field investigation. We show that (i though today the valley is a wilderness it was densely inhabited in the past; (ii that this population was organized into a three-tiered system composed of 19 settlements dominated by a city; and, (iii that this occupation was embedded within a human engineered landscape. We also add to a growing body of literature that demonstrates the utility of LiDAR as means for rapid cultural assessments in undocumented regions for analysis and conservation. Our ultimate hope is for our work to promote protections to safeguard the unique and critically endangered Mosquitia ecosystem and other similar areas in need of preservation.
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Identifying Ancient Settlement Patterns through LiDAR in the Mosquitia Region of Honduras
Fernández-Diaz, Juan Carlos; Cohen, Anna S.; Neil Cruz, Oscar; Gonzáles, Alicia M.; Leisz, Stephen J.; Pezzutti, Florencia; Shrestha, Ramesh; Carter, William
2016-01-01
The Mosquitia ecosystem of Honduras occupies the fulcrum between the American continents and as such constitutes a critical region for understanding past patterns of socio-political development and interaction. Heavy vegetation, rugged topography, and remoteness have limited scientific investigation. This paper presents prehistoric patterns of settlement and landuse for a critical valley within the Mosquitia derived from airborne LiDAR scanning and field investigation. We show that (i) though today the valley is a wilderness it was densely inhabited in the past; (ii) that this population was organized into a three-tiered system composed of 19 settlements dominated by a city; and, (iii) that this occupation was embedded within a human engineered landscape. We also add to a growing body of literature that demonstrates the utility of LiDAR as means for rapid cultural assessments in undocumented regions for analysis and conservation. Our ultimate hope is for our work to promote protections to safeguard the unique and critically endangered Mosquitia ecosystem and other similar areas in need of preservation. PMID:27560962
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Identifying Ancient Settlement Patterns through LiDAR in the Mosquitia Region of Honduras.
Fisher, Christopher T; Fernández-Diaz, Juan Carlos; Cohen, Anna S; Neil Cruz, Oscar; Gonzáles, Alicia M; Leisz, Stephen J; Pezzutti, Florencia; Shrestha, Ramesh; Carter, William
2016-01-01
The Mosquitia ecosystem of Honduras occupies the fulcrum between the American continents and as such constitutes a critical region for understanding past patterns of socio-political development and interaction. Heavy vegetation, rugged topography, and remoteness have limited scientific investigation. This paper presents prehistoric patterns of settlement and landuse for a critical valley within the Mosquitia derived from airborne LiDAR scanning and field investigation. We show that (i) though today the valley is a wilderness it was densely inhabited in the past; (ii) that this population was organized into a three-tiered system composed of 19 settlements dominated by a city; and, (iii) that this occupation was embedded within a human engineered landscape. We also add to a growing body of literature that demonstrates the utility of LiDAR as means for rapid cultural assessments in undocumented regions for analysis and conservation. Our ultimate hope is for our work to promote protections to safeguard the unique and critically endangered Mosquitia ecosystem and other similar areas in need of preservation.
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Sanchez, Ana Lourdes; Gabrie, Jose Antonio; Usuanlele, Mary-Theresa; Rueda, Maria Mercedes; Canales, Maritza; Gyorkos, Theresa W
2013-01-01
Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are endemic in Honduras and efforts are underway to decrease their transmission. However, current evidence is lacking in regards to their prevalence, intensity and their impact on children's health. To evaluate the prevalence and intensity of STH infections and their association with nutritional status in a sample of Honduran children. A cross-sectional study was done among school-age children residing in rural communities in Honduras, in 2011. Demographic data was obtained, hemoglobin and protein concentrations were determined in blood samples and STH infections investigated in single-stool samples by Kato-Katz. Anthropometric measurements were taken to calculate height-for-age (HAZ), BMI-for-age (BAZ) and weight-for-age (WAZ) to determine stunting, thinness and underweight, respectively. Among 320 children studied (48% girls, aged 7-14 years, mean 9.76 ± 1.4) an overall STH prevalence of 72.5% was found. Children >10 years of age were generally more infected than 7-10 year-olds (p = 0.015). Prevalence was 30%, 67% and 16% for Ascaris, Trichuris and hookworms, respectively. Moderate-to-heavy infections as well as polyparasitism were common among the infected children (36% and 44%, respectively). Polyparasitism was four times more likely to occur in children attending schools with absent or annual deworming schedules than in pupils attending schools deworming twice a year (pHonduras and despite current efforts were highly prevalent in the studied community. The role of multiparasite STH infections in undermining children's nutritional status warrants more research.
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Allee effects on population dynamics in continuous (overlapping) case
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.; Celik, C.
2009-01-01
This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a continuous population dynamics with delay under the Allee effect which occurs at low population density. The mathematical results and numerical simulations show the stabilizing role of the Allee effects on the stability of the equilibrium point of this population dynamics.
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Analysis of Population Dynamics in World Economy
Martin, Gress
2011-01-01
Population dynamics is an important topic in current world economy. The size and growth of population have an impact on economic growth and development of individual countries and vice versa, economic development influences demographic variables in a country. The aim of the article is to analyze historical development of world population, population stock change and relations between population stock change and economic development.
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Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc
2018-01-01
There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.
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Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI
Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah
Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.
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Perturbation analysis of transient population dynamics using matrix projection models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stott, Iain
2016-01-01
Non-stable populations exhibit short-term transient dynamics: size, growth and structure that are unlike predicted long-term asymptotic stable, stationary or equilibrium dynamics. Understanding transient dynamics of non-stable populations is important for designing effective population management...... these methods to know exactly what is being measured. Despite a wealth of existing methods, I identify some areas that would benefit from further development....
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Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.
Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K
2012-01-01
Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λbounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.
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Jansen, K.
2003-01-01
Hurricane Mitch hit Honduras in October 1998, leaving a trail of death, injury and devastating damage. As it tore through the country, the hurricane damaged a number of warehouses which contained pesticides, resulting in the discharge of more than 70 tonnes of pesticides into the environment. This
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Rambutan (Nephelium lappaceum L., Sapindaceae) was first introduced into Honduras in 1927 but commercial production was not started until after 1980 when cultivation of pulasan (N. mutabile Blume) was initiated. In the last decade these crops have become popular as exotic fruit for export to North A...
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Central-marginal population dynamics in species invasions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qinfeng eGuo
2014-06-01
Full Text Available The species’ range limits and associated central-marginal (C-M; i.e., from species range center to margin population dynamics continue to draw increasing attention because of their importance for current emerging issues such as biotic invasions and epidemic diseases under global change. Previous studies have mainly focused on species borders and C-M process in natural settings for native species. More recently, growing efforts are devoted to examine the C-M patterns and process for invasive species partly due to their relatively short history, highly dynamic populations, and management implications. Here I examine recent findings and information gaps related to (1 the C-M population dynamics linked to species invasions, and (2 the possible effects of climate change and land use on the C-M patterns and processes. Unlike most native species that are relatively stable (some even having contracting populations or ranges, many invasive species are still spreading fast and form new distribution or abundance centers. Because of the strong nonlinearity of population demographic or vital rates (i.e. birth, death, immigration and emigration across the C-M gradients and the increased complexity of species ranges due to habitat fragmentation, multiple introductions, range-wide C-M comparisons and simulation involving multiple vital rates are needed in the future.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Valeria Gambino
2014-08-01
Full Text Available This study develops a sustainable housing model for the Mosquitia region of Honduras, aimed at improving the living conditions of indigenous communities and reducing their vulnerability to the effects of climate change. The improved housing efficiency and resilience will contribute to strengthen sanitation and hygiene, improve the living comfort and reduce environmental impact, particularly focusing on preserving the forest biodiversity. The project was developed following the criteria of environmental, technical, social and economic sustainability to propose a shared model, reproducible by the beneficiaries living in different kinds of Mosquitian ecosystems. Increased building efficiency is obtained through optimization of construction techniques and improvement of materials’ performances. The main material of the proposed dwelling is wood, coherently with the “Miskita” tradition; the increase of its durability, which is obtained by proper seasoning and protection from atmospheric agents and parasites, contributes to the optimization of the use of this natural resource and to reducing the impact on deforestation, which threatens forest biodiversity. The data collection campaign, conducted before developing the housing model design and which has aimed at obtaining information on technical and social aspects related to residences’ welfare and health conditions, has highlighted the great importance of improving the construction model. Despite the advance in sanitary conditions and the economic level, the data collection campaign revealed that even the most developed communities amongst those visited have been perpetrating substantial construction errors, which reduce the resilience of structures to extreme natural phenomena, such as tropical storms and hurricanes, which frequently affect the Mosquitia region. This unexpected discovery increased the importance of housing model design in order to correct these improper construction
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Population, conservation, and land use change in Honduras
Max J. Pfeffer; John W. Schlelhas; Stephen D. DeGloria; Jorge Gomez
2005-01-01
This paper examines the role of population density on land use allocation and change. We are especially interested in the management of fallow areas that have come under increasing pressure given restrictions imposed by the creation of protected areas like national parks. It is argued that these restrictions to reduce deforestation create a relative scarcity of land,...
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Prevalence of depression among mothers of young children in Honduras.
Wulsin, Lawson; Somoza, Eugene; Heck, Jeffery; Bauer, Leah
2010-01-01
Maternal depression is a substantial problem that has negative consequences on the health of both mother and child. Little research has been done on the prevalence of maternal depression in the developing world. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of current depression among mothers in Honduras and identify demographic predictors of depression in this sample. A modified Spanish version of the PHQ-9 and a demographic questionnaire were administered by trained interviewers to 415 rural and urban women aged 15-66 who had children between 1 and 10 years old. Prevalence of current major depressive syndrome was 17.6%. Mild depressive symptoms were detected in 52% of the sample. The estimated prevalence of current major depressive syndrome in the urban sample (19%) was not significantly greater than in the rural sample (16%, p = 0.49). None of the demographic variables measured, including age, number of children, or marital status predicted major depression in this sample. Maternal depression occurred at a high rate in this sample of Honduran women. The estimated prevalence rates in this study are similar to rates of maternal depression in studies of mothers in other Latin American countries, as well as in samples of mothers on Medicaid in the United States. Further study is needed to confirm and extend these findings, and to identify predictors of maternal depression in this population.
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Revolution as a care plan: ethnography, nursing and somatic solidarity in Honduras.
Pine, Adrienne
2013-12-01
While diagnosis is not within the biomedical scope of a nurse's work, assessment-an inherently ethnographic exercise-is. In Honduras, as in the United States, nurses' proximity with patients, in terms of both time spent at the bedside and shared class identification (embodied as habitus), mean that nurses are often more effective than physicians in assessment and healing. Following the 2009 coup that brought a violently repressive regime to power in Honduras, subjectivation as citizen healers brought many nurses to assess patient health as a function of neoliberal and political violence. This assessment framed radical struggle that required nurses to block political violence with their own bodies as being a necessary part of patient care. Similarly, as ethnographer, I came to share with nurses and other Hondurans certain violent processes of subjectivation (albeit from a privileged subject position) that strengthened my solidarity with them as well as my deeply embodied investment in their care plan of organizing for radical social change. This paper examines the politicizing impact of the 2009 coup on Honduran auxiliary and professional nurses and the ways in which nurse assessment and ethnographic analysis can overlap and combine in somatic and political solidarity with patients and others resisting state and political violence through their bodies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Nonlinear Relaxation in Population Dynamics
Cirone, Markus A.; de Pasquale, Ferdinando; Spagnolo, Bernardo
We analyze the nonlinear relaxation of a complex ecosystem composed of many interacting species. The ecological system is described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations with a multiplicative noise. The transient dynamics is studied in the framework of the mean field theory and with random interaction between the species. We focus on the statistical properties of the asymptotic behaviour of the time integral of the ith population and on the distribution of the population and of the local field.
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Rupture directivity and local site effects: the M7.3 Honduras earthquake of May 23, 2009
Shulman, D.; Mooney, W. D.
2009-12-01
On May 28, 2009, at 2:24 AM local time, a M 7.3 earthquake struck off the coast of Honduras on the Motagua-Swan Fault System (MSFS), part of the boundary between the North America and Caribbean plates. This plate boundary has an average slip rate of 20 mm/year. This left-lateral earthquake had an average slip of 1.5 m on a 100-km-long near-vertical fault plane (Hayes and Ji, 2009). The hypocenter depth is estimated at 10 km. The main shock caused 130 structures, including homes and office buildings, to collapse or suffer significant damage in northern Honduras. Seven deaths were reported. Due to a lack of recordings in the area, the available documentation of the local effects of this earthquake are the USGS "Did you feel it?" responses and the data collected during our field seismic intensity investigation. We conducted a field investigation in Honduras between May 30 and June 6, 2009, focused on areas with local reports of damage, including the cities of La Ceiba, El Progresso, San Pedro Sula, Puerto Cortes in northern Honduras and the island of Roatan in the Caribbean Sea. The damage ascertained at these five sites shows that the severity of damage did not decrease with distance from the epicenter as predicted by standard attenuation relations. Instead, a concentration of damage was observed in El Progresso, approximately 75 km directly south from the SW end of the rupture and 160 km from the epicenter. The island of Roatan, just 30 km from the epicenter, was graded as VI on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale while, El Progresso was graded as VIII (one unit higher than “Did you feel it?”). These intensity anomalies can be explained by two factors: (1) SW-directed rupture propagation and proximity to a localized 3.0m slip pulse (asperity) that occurred near the SW end of the fault (Hayes and Ji, 2009) that focused energy toward the city of El Progress on the mainland and; (2) local site effects, particularly the Precambrian schists and gneisses on the
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Le Honduras se démarque dans la lutte contre la maladie de Chagas
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
25 janv. 2011 ... À la suite d'un échange d'information, le Nicaragua a amorcé ... L'organisme humanitaire Visión Mundial Honduras s'est chargé de la recherche, qui faisait ... en très mauvais état –, étaient des abris de choix pour l'insecte vecteur. ... de marche à faire pour se rendre à la clinique médicale de Monteverde.
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Honduras: A Pariah State, or Innovative Solutions to Organized Crime Deserving U.S. Support
2016-06-01
organized crime and delinquency in the coun- try. More controversially, he has created a new police force within the military, the Military Police of...and ambitious structure, wrestling with the inter-institutional challenges of the fight against orga- nized crime and delinquency in Honduras is no...example, statistics involving the activi- ties of the organizations under its operational control, 36 including counter-narcotics operations, actions
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Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments.
Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin
2018-03-25
Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life-history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco-evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within-individual and among-individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life-history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal-tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within-population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year-round residence, generating diverse forms of 'partial migration' spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year-round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio-temporal population dynamics, we define a 'partially migratory meta-population' system as a spatially structured set of locations that can
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2010-05-05
... for food production and the increased likelihood of flooding, landslides, and forest fires. All health... Service. Box 6943, Chicago, IL 60680- 6943. You are applying for the first time as U.S. Citizenship and a... 6943, Chicago, IL 60680-6943. You are using a Non-US Postal Service USCIS, Attn: TPS Honduras, 131...
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Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.
Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M
2013-10-01
When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.
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2016-05-26
MAESTRÍA EN CIENCIAS Y ARTES MILITARES Estudios Generales by NORMAN A. CALIDONIO CASTAÑEDA, MAYOR DEL EJÉRCITO DE HONDURAS Licenciado en... Ciencias Militares, Universidad de Defensa de Honduras, Tegucigalpa, 2009 WHINSEC 2016 Aprobado para su publicación...Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 iii MAESTRÍA EN ARTES Y CIENCIAS MILITARES PÁGINA DE APROBACIÓN DE LA TESIS Nombre del candidato: Mayor Norman A
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Digital inventory of landslides and related deposits in Honduras triggered by Hurricane Mitch
Harp, Edwin L.; Hagaman, Kirk W.; Held, Matthew D.; McKenna, Jonathan P.
2002-01-01
Intense rainfall from Hurricane Mitch from October 27-31, 1998, exceeded 900 mm in places in Honduras and triggered in excess of 500,000 landslides throughout the country. Landslides damaged an estimated 70% of the road network in Honduras based on estimates by the U. S Army Corps of Engineers. Numbers of fatalities due to landslides are not accurately known due to the fact that numerous small villages throughout Honduras lost residents to landslides without an official count being recorded. A conservative estimate would place the number at near 1,000. Debris flows accounted for over 95% of the landslides and ranged in thickness from 1 to 15 m. Flow path lengths of these failures ranged from several meters to 7.5 km. The highest concentrations of debris flows occurred in the mountains near the town of Choluteca where over 900 mm of rain fell in three days. Although landslides other than debris flows were few, several deep-seated landslides in the city of Tegucigalpa severely impacted people and property. The 'El Berrinche' rotational slump/earth flow of approximately six million cubic meters volume destroyed the entire neighborhood of Colonia Soto near the center of the city. The landslide also dammed the Rio Choluteca and created a lagoon behind the landslide dam, which immediately posed a health problem for the city, because raw, untreated sewage was emptying into the Rio Choluteca. Several areas of highly concentrated landslides have been responsible for much of the flooding problem as well. Huge sediment influxes from landslide source areas near La Ceiba, La Libertad, Marale, and in several arms of El Cajon Reservoir have reduced stream capacities to practically nothing and have exacerbated flooding conditions in even the moderate rainfall seasons since Hurricane Mitch. The ongoing hazard to communities from landslides triggered during Hurricane Mitch are being analyzed using aerial photography taken by the U.S. Air Force and by supplemental photography taken
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Dynamical community structure of populations evolving on genotype networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Capitán, José A.; Aguirre, Jacobo; Manrubia, Susanna
2015-01-01
Neutral evolutionary dynamics of replicators occurs on large and heterogeneous networks of genotypes. These networks, formed by all genotypes that yield the same phenotype, have a complex architecture that conditions the molecular composition of populations and their movements on genome spaces. Here we consider as an example the case of populations evolving on RNA secondary structure neutral networks and study the community structure of the network revealed through dynamical properties of the population at equilibrium and during adaptive transients. We unveil a rich hierarchical community structure that, eventually, can be traced back to the non-trivial relationship between RNA secondary structure and sequence composition. We demonstrate that usual measures of modularity that only take into account the static, topological structure of networks, cannot identify the community structure disclosed by population dynamics
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Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations
Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel
2013-03-01
Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.
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Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe; Starke, Jens; Andersen, Ken Haste
2016-01-01
Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more...... or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two...... cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts...
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Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schmieder, R.W.
1995-07-01
The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.
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An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin
2015-01-01
Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model...
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Population dynamics of active and total ciliate populations in arable soil amended with wheat
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ekelund, F.; Frederiksen, Helle B.; Ronn, R.
2002-01-01
of the population may be encysted. The factors governing the dynamics of active and encysted cells in the soil are not well understood. Our objective was to determine the dynamics of active and encysted populations of ciliates during the decomposition of freshly added organic material. We monitored, in soil...... microcosms, the active and total populations of ciliates, their potential prey (bacteria and small protozoa), their potential competitors (amoebae, flagellates, and nematodes), and their potential predators (nematodes). We sampled with short time intervals (2 to 6 days) and generated a data set, suitable...
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL
2013-01-01
In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.
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DYNAMICS OF Cercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
ACSS
DYNAMICS OFCercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED AGRO- ..... Population differentiation of Cercospora zeina in three districts of Uganda based on analysis of molecular variance ..... interactions: The example of the Erysiphe.
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Structural and geophysical interpretation of Roatan Island, Honduras, Western Caribbean
Sutton, Daniel Scott
Roatan Island is the largest of the Bay Islands of Honduras. These islands form an emergent crest off the Caribbean coast of Honduras called the Bonacca Ridge. The Bartlett Trough to the north and subsequent Bonacca Ridge were likely formed due to the transform fault system of the Motagua-Swan Islands Fault System. This fault system forms the tectonic plate boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates. Although the timing and kinematics are poorly constrained, the Bay Islands and the Bonacca Ridge were likely uplifted due to transpression along this left-lateral strike-slip system. With limited regional exposures along the adjacent tectonic boundary, this study aimed to present a structural interpretation for Roatan. This new interpretation is further explained through regional considerations for a suggested geologic history of the northwestern Caribbean. In order to better constrain the kinematics of uplift and exhumation of Roatan Island, structural, gravity, and magnetic surveys were conducted. Principal attention was directed to the structural relationship between the geologic units and their relationship to one another through deformation. Resulting geologic cross-sections from this study present the metamorphic basement exposed throughout the island to be in a normal structural order consisting of biotite schist and gneiss, with overlying units of chlorite schist, carbonate, and conglomerate. These units have relatively concordant strike and dip measurements, consistent with resultant magnetic survey readings. Additionally, large and irregular bodies of amphibolite and serpentinite throughout the island are interpreted to have been emplaced as mafic and ultra-mafic intrusions in weakness zones along Early Paleogene transform system fault planes. The interpretation and suggested geologic history from this study demonstrate the importance of transpressive tectonics both local to Roatan and regionally throughout geologic history. Consideration of
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POPULATION DYNAMICS OF PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA SPECIES ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
nb
current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia ... and to the developing aquaculture industry ... B. Hotel. Pangani Island. Bongoyo Island. Mbudya Island. Msasani Bay ... Salinity values did not show clear trends.
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The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations
Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian
2017-06-01
Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.
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Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior.
Pananos, A Demetri; Bury, Thomas M; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P; Nyhan, Brendan; Salathé, Marcel; Bauch, Chris T
2017-12-26
Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
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Crisis in Honduras: The Search for Answers to the Removal of President Manuel Zelaya
2013-09-01
gravity for Zelaya’s growing leftist rhetoric and ideology.185 She “had embraced Marxism and Central America’s revolutionary movements in her...349 Ruhl, “Honduras Unravels,” 102. 350 Frances Robles, “Top Honduran Military Lawyer: We Broke the Law,” The Miami Herald, July 3, 2009, News...in Latin America.” Comparative Politics 42, no. 4 (2010). Robles, Frances . “Top Honduran Military Lawyer: We Broke the Law.” The Miami Herald
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Robert Kohn
2005-11-01
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD and other psychopathological outcomes have not been sufficiently studied in community-based samples in Latin America. This study explored various psychopathological reactions and their respective risk factors two months after Hurricane Mitch struck Honduras in October 1998. METHODS: In the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa, 800 respondents age 15 and older were selected from residential areas of high, middle, or low socioeconomic status that had suffered either high or low impact from the devastating effects of the hurricane. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview was used to diagnose PTSD. Depression, alcohol misuse, and grief reaction were examined using screening instruments, and the Self-Reporting Questionnaire was used to measure demoralization. The Impact of Event Scale was administered to ascertain the severity of the posttraumatic reaction. RESULTS: PTSD was present in 10.6% of the sample. Respondents from the high-impact residential areas were more distressed, had higher scores on the grief inventory, and showed greater severity in PTSD symptoms. The respondents from the high-impact residential areas also had higher prevalence rates of major depression, alcoholism, and prior emotional problems. The best explanatory model for the risk of developing PTSD included the degree of exposure based on reported traumatic events, and associated increased demoralization. Among the persons with PTSD, its severity was predicted by being female and by the degree of exposure to hurricane-related traumatic events. CONCLUSIONS: Out of a total population of 3.3 million adults (age 15 and older in Honduras, it is estimated that over 492 000 of them may have developed PTSD due to Hurricane Mitch. Adequate health disaster preparedness and response requires full acknowledgement of the multiple psychological effects that victims experience.OBJETIVOS: En América Latina no se han estudiado suficientemente
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Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel
2011-11-01
Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.
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Tilson, Thomas D.; And Others
Findings are presented from studies on the use of radio for teaching primary school children mathematics in Honduras and Bolivia and English as a Second Language in Lesotho. Interactive radio instruction (IRI) is so called because of the active participation of the students. Although lessons are presented by conventional radio, scripts are written…
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlos Geovany Calix
2015-11-01
Full Text Available The objective of this research is to analyze the intellectual capital and other determinants of competitive advantage in exporting companies in northern Honduras, from two perspectives: the theory of resources and capabilities, and the theory of the firm based on the knowledge. At the end of the hypothesis test data were used by probit regression. The evidence found indicates that having more intellectual capital, the seniority of the exporting company, the size and degree of requirement of the destination country, they are relevant variables that influence in a positive way the level of competitive advantage. It is believed that the results contribute to the literature on the level of competitive advantage in exporting firms in developing countries being the first work of this kind in Honduras. As a future line of research must be carried out an identification, classification and measurement of intellectual capital and competitive advantage, both variables measured longitudinally.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Trocki, L.K.
1989-09-01
The expected economic benefits from development of a geothermal power plant at Platanares in the Department of Copan, Honduras are evaluated in this report. The economic benefits of geothermal plants ranging in size from a 10-MW plant in the shallow reservoir to a 20-, 30-, 55-, or 110-MW plant in the assumed deeper reservoir were measured by computing optimal expansion plans for each size of geothermal plant. Savings are computed as the difference in present value cost between a plan that contains no geothermal plant and one that does. Present value savings in millions of 1987 dollars range from $25 million for the 10-MW plant to $110 million for the 110-MW plant -- savings of 6% to 25% over the time period 1988 through 2008. 8 refs., 9 figs., 6 tabs.
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Delay differential systems for tick population dynamics.
Fan, Guihong; Thieme, Horst R; Zhu, Huaiping
2015-11-01
Ticks play a critical role as vectors in the transmission and spread of Lyme disease, an emerging infectious disease which can cause severe illness in humans or animals. To understand the transmission dynamics of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases, it is necessary to investigate the population dynamics of ticks. Here, we formulate a system of delay differential equations which models the stage structure of the tick population. Temperature can alter the length of time delays in each developmental stage, and so the time delays can vary geographically (and seasonally which we do not consider). We define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of stage structured tick populations. The tick population is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text] and dies out if [Formula: see text]. We present sufficient conditions under which the unique positive equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. In general, the positive equilibrium can be unstable and the system show oscillatory behavior. These oscillations are primarily due to negative feedback within the tick system, but can be enhanced by the time delays of the different developmental stages.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Victoria Alejandra Gonzales-González
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Background: Allergic diseases are a public health problem; estimates indicate that between 30% and 40% of the world population is affected by some allergy. Knowing the prevalence of allergen sensitization allows for adequate diagnoses and treatments to be offered. In Honduras there are no studies available in pediatric patients. Objectives: The purpose of this research was to identify the most common types of sensitization in children and their correlation with the most common allergic diseases in patients on immunotherapy at the Maria Hospital of Pediatric Specialties. Methods: Cross-sectional, descriptive, retrospective study in which medical records and databases of patients on allergic immunotherapy at the Maria Hospital of Pediatric Specialties were reviewed between January 2015 and June 2016. Results: 215 children on immunotherapy were assessed; ages ranged from 3 to 18 years, with a mean of 10.8 years. Aeroallergen-positive epicutaneous tests were identified in 73.02%. The most common aeroallergens were Dermatophagoides farinae and Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus mix (96.74%, American cockroach 37.21%, and Aspergillus fumigatus and Homodenderum cladosporioides (16.28%. Conclusions: House dust mites and American cockroach were the most common causes of sensitization in patients on immunotherapy.
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Hashimoto, Ken; Zúniga, Concepción; Romero, Eduardo; Morales, Zoraida; Maguire, James H.
2015-01-01
Background Central American countries face a major challenge in the control of Triatoma dimidiata, a widespread vector of Chagas disease that cannot be eliminated. The key to maintaining the risk of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi at lowest levels is to sustain surveillance throughout endemic areas. Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras integrated community-based vector surveillance into local health systems. Community participation was effective in detection of the vector, but some health services had difficulty sustaining their response to reports of vectors from the population. To date, no research has investigated how best to maintain and reinforce health service responsiveness, especially in resource-limited settings. Methodology/Principal Findings We reviewed surveillance and response records of 12 health centers in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras from 2008 to 2012 and analyzed the data in relation to the volume of reports of vector infestation, local geography, demography, human resources, managerial approach, and results of interviews with health workers. Health service responsiveness was defined as the percentage of households that reported vector infestation for which the local health service provided indoor residual spraying of insecticide or educational advice. Eight potential determinants of responsiveness were evaluated by linear and mixed-effects multi-linear regression. Health service responsiveness (overall 77.4%) was significantly associated with quarterly monitoring by departmental health offices. Other potential determinants of responsiveness were not found to be significant, partly because of short- and long-term strategies, such as temporary adjustments in manpower and redistribution of tasks among local participants in the effort. Conclusions/Significance Consistent monitoring within the local health system contributes to sustainability of health service responsiveness in community-based vector surveillance of Chagas disease. Even with
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Hashimoto, Ken; Zúniga, Concepción; Romero, Eduardo; Morales, Zoraida; Maguire, James H
2015-01-01
Central American countries face a major challenge in the control of Triatoma dimidiata, a widespread vector of Chagas disease that cannot be eliminated. The key to maintaining the risk of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi at lowest levels is to sustain surveillance throughout endemic areas. Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras integrated community-based vector surveillance into local health systems. Community participation was effective in detection of the vector, but some health services had difficulty sustaining their response to reports of vectors from the population. To date, no research has investigated how best to maintain and reinforce health service responsiveness, especially in resource-limited settings. We reviewed surveillance and response records of 12 health centers in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras from 2008 to 2012 and analyzed the data in relation to the volume of reports of vector infestation, local geography, demography, human resources, managerial approach, and results of interviews with health workers. Health service responsiveness was defined as the percentage of households that reported vector infestation for which the local health service provided indoor residual spraying of insecticide or educational advice. Eight potential determinants of responsiveness were evaluated by linear and mixed-effects multi-linear regression. Health service responsiveness (overall 77.4%) was significantly associated with quarterly monitoring by departmental health offices. Other potential determinants of responsiveness were not found to be significant, partly because of short- and long-term strategies, such as temporary adjustments in manpower and redistribution of tasks among local participants in the effort. Consistent monitoring within the local health system contributes to sustainability of health service responsiveness in community-based vector surveillance of Chagas disease. Even with limited resources, countries can improve health service
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Mendoza-Avelares, Milton O.; Milton, Evan C.; Lange, Ilta; Fajardo, Roosevelt
2010-01-01
Abstract Objectives: Patients in underdeveloped countries may be left behind by advances in telehealthcare. We surveyed chronically ill patients with low incomes in Honduras to measure their use of mobile technologies and willingness to participate in mobile disease management support. Materials and Methods: 624 chronically ill primary care patients in Honduras were surveyed. We examined variation in telephone access across groups defined by patients' sociodemographic characteristics, diagnoses, and access to care. Logistic regression was used to identify independent correlates of patients' interest in automated telephonic support for disease management. Results: Participants had limited education (mean 4.8 years), and 65% were unemployed. Eighty-four percent had telephone access, and 78% had cell phones. Most respondents had voicemail (61%) and text messaging (58%). Mobile technologies were particularly common among patients who had to forego clinic visits and medications due to cost concerns (each p 80%) reported that they would be willing to receive automated calls focused on appointment reminders, medication adherence, health status monitoring, and self-care education. Patients were more likely to be willing to participate in automated telemedicine services if they had to cancel a clinic appointment due to transportation problems or forego medication due to cost pressures. Conclusions: Even in this poor region of Honduras, most chronically ill patients have access to mobile technology, and most are willing to participate in automated telephone disease management support. Given barriers to in-person care, new models of mobile healthcare should be developed for chronically ill patients in developing countries. PMID:21062234
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Variabilidad genética en razas locales de frijol común de Honduras
Meza Linarez, Narcizo; Rosas Sotomayor, Juan Carlos; Ortiz Marcide, Jesus Maria; Martin Clemente, Juan Pedro
2010-01-01
Las regiones agroecológicas Centro-Oriental (Francisco Morazón y El Paraíso) y Nor-Oriental (Olancho) aportan el 52% de la producción de frijol común (Phaseolus vulgaris) en Honduras. En el presente estudio se ha analizado la variabilidad genética en 59 razas locales colectadas en los tres departamentos de las dos regiones agroecológicas mencionadas, mediante cuatro loci microsatélites previamente descritos en P. vulgaris. Los resultados obtenidos muestran la existencia de una gran variabilid...
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Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.
Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies
1995-01-01
A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...
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Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks
M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk
2009-01-01
The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...
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Elecciones, sistema de partidos, democracia y ciudadanía en Honduras (1980–2013*
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salvador Romero Ballivián
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Esboza las líneas gruesas de los juegos políticos en que se ha visto envuelto el proceso electoral de Honduras desde su retorno a la democracia; con el objetivo de percibir mejor las permanencias y las transformaciones de las elecciones, y propone pistas explicativas y dibuja consecuencias e implicaciones. Ofrece un análisis detallado de cada uno de los comicios, destaca las tendencias centrales de cada período
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Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste
2014-01-01
with simple stock dynamics, to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering...... of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality and reproduction, after which any aspect of size-structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: 1) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort...
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Computer simulation of population dynamics inside the urban environment
Andreev, A. S.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Nefedov, V. V.; Ponomarenko, L. S.; Tikhomirov, V. V.
2017-12-01
In this paper using a mathematical model of the so-called “space-dynamic” approach we investigate the problem of development and temporal dynamics of different urban population groups. For simplicity we consider an interaction of only two population groups inside a single urban area with axial symmetry. This problem can be described qualitatively by a system of two non-stationary nonlinear differential equations of the diffusion type with boundary conditions of the third type. The results of numerical simulations show that with a suitable choice of the diffusion coefficients and interaction functions between different population groups we can receive different scenarios of population dynamics: from complete displacement of one population group by another (originally more “aggressive”) to the “peaceful” situation of co-existence of them together.
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The coexistence of Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) and indigenous hunters in northeastern Honduras.
Dunn, Marc; Estrada, Nereyda; Smith, Derek A
2012-12-01
The Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) is a popular game species throughout Central America, particularly among indigenous populations, and is currently endangered. Research on Miskitu hunting was conducted over 4 months in a remote region in northeastern Honduras that overlaps with the Río Plátano Biosphere Reserve. The hunting zone was mapped together with hunters and interviews were conducted with elders and other community members about tapir hunting. Results show that tapir harvesting is targeted toward specific habitats at specific times of year. Harvest rates for one year suggest that tapir hunting in the area exceeds estimates of maximum sustainable production. Nevertheless, field surveys reveal the presence of tapir within 1 km of the community, and its harvest tends to be nearby, in both forested and agricultural landscapes, suggesting that the animal has not been depleted in the area. It appears that the existence of forest areas adjacent to the hunting zone that do not experience hunting, together with the anthropogenic habitats created through shifting cultivation, are factors that help explain the presence of tapirs in the area. The article concludes with a discussion regarding the potential positive role of indigenous hunters in tapir conservation throughout its distribution range. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.
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Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL
2014-01-01
High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.
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Fiedler, John L; Villalobos, Carlos A; De Mattos, Annette C
2008-11-01
The Honduras AIN-C programme is a preventive health and nutrition programme of the Honduras Ministry of Health (MOH) that relies on volunteers to help mothers monitor and maintain the adequate growth of young children. A quasi-experimental, design-based evaluation found that the programme achieved near-universal coverage and was effective in improving mothers' child-rearing knowledge, attitudes and practices, including feeding and appropriate care-giving and care-seeking practices for children with diarrhoea and acute respiratory illness. The programme is widely regarded as a model. This study was undertaken to provide the first comprehensive estimates of the cost of the AIN-C programme, with the goal of providing a programme and financial planning tool for Honduras. An additional comparison of study findings was also undertaken to determine the cost of the AIN-C programme's community-based services relative to a similar facility-based service. Expressed in mid-2005 US dollars, the study found that after the programme is phased-in: (1) the annual, recurrent cost per child under 2 years participating in the programme is $6.43; (2) the annual, incremental budget requirements per child under 2 years participating in the programme are $3.90; (3) the cost of an AIN-C monthly growth monitoring and counselling session per child is 11% of the cost of a traditional MOH, facility-based growth and development consultation per child; and (4) the effect of mothers substituting AIN-C monitor care for MOH facility-based care 'saves' 203 000 outpatient visits a year, with a potential cost saving of $1.66 million, the equivalent of 60% of the recurrent cost of the programme and roughly equal to the annual incremental budget requirements of the programme. Sensitivity analysis of the cost estimates is performed to provide insight, for countries considering introducing a similar programme, into how modifications of key characteristics of the programme affect its costs.
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Tinbergen, J.M.; Balen, J.H. van; Drent, P.J.; Cavé, A.J.; Mertens, J.A.L.; Boer-Hazewinkel, J. den
1987-01-01
1. The aim of this article is to explore whether cost-benefit analysis of behaviour may help to understand the population dynamics of a species. The Great Tit is taken as an example. 2. The lifetime reproductive success in different populations of Great Tits amounts from 0.7 (Hoge Veluwe, Wytham) to
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Piette, John D; Mendoza-Avelares, Milton O; Chess, Laura; Milton, Evan C; Matiz Reyes, Armando; Rodriguez-Saldaña, Joel
2012-01-01
The U.S. financial crisis has affected employment opportunities for Latino immigrants, and this could affect their ability to send financial assistance, or "remittances", to chronically ill family members in their home country. In a cross-sectional survey of 624 chronically ill adults conducted in Honduras between June and August 2009, respondents reported their receipt of remittances, health service use, and cost-related access barriers. Fifty-four percent of respondents reported relatives living outside the country, and of this group, 66 percent (37% of the overall sample) received remittances. Seventy-four percent of respondents receiving remittances reported a decrease over the prior year, mostly due to job losses among their relatives abroad. Respondents reporting reductions in remittances received significantly less per month, on average, than those without a reduction (US $170 vs. $234; p = 0.01). In multivariate models, respondents experiencing a reduction in remittances used fewer health services and medications due to cost concerns. Remittance payments from relatives resident in the United States are a major source of income for chronically ill individuals in Latin America. Most recipients of remittances reported a reduction during the financial downturn that affected their access to care.
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Particle algorithms for population dynamics in flows
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perlekar, Prasad; Toschi, Federico; Benzi, Roberto; Pigolotti, Simone
2011-01-01
We present and discuss particle based algorithms to numerically study the dynamics of population subjected to an advecting flow condition. We discuss few possible variants of the algorithms and compare them in a model compressible flow. A comparison against appropriate versions of the continuum stochastic Fisher equation (sFKPP) is also presented and discussed. The algorithms can be used to study populations genetics in fluid environments.
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Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.
Bariabagar, H
1978-01-01
2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.
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Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.
Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J
2017-09-16
Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.
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Veredas inciertas, destinos cruzados. Migración femenina de Honduras y su paso por México
López Pozos, Cecilia
2015-01-01
Le donne migranti dell'America Centrale sin dall'infanzia vivono una storia di violenza personale e sociale che continua anche nel viaggio migratorio, nell'attraversare i confini di Honduras, Guatemala e Messico. Violentate dai gruppi criminali sono sottomesse e fragilizzate, alcune continuano la loro strada fino a raggiungere il confine settentrionale degli Stati Uniti, mentre altre decidono di riadattarsi ai nuovi spazi sociali. Oltre alle esperienze traumatiche soffrono alterazioni che inc...
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Dynamics of Population on the Verge of Extinction
Oborny, B.; Meszena, G.; Szabo, G.
2005-01-01
Theoretical considerations suggest that extinction in dispersal-limited populations is necessarily a threshold-like process that is analogous to a critical phase transition in physics. We use this analogy to find robust, common features in the dynamics of extinctions, and suggest early warning signals which may indicate that a population is endangered. As the critical threshold of extinction is approached, the population spontaneously fragments into discrete subpopulations and, consequently, ...
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Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jeffrey A Hostetler
Full Text Available Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008 study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1 for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s included 1.0 (0.52-1.60. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.
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[The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].
Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A
2013-01-01
The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.
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A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations
Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang
2017-04-01
There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.
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Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations
Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.
2010-10-01
We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.
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Symbol Digit Modalities Test: Normative data for Spanish-speaking pediatric population.
Arango-Lasprilla, J C; Rivera, D; Trapp, S; Jiménez-Pérez, C; Hernández Carrillo, C L; Pohlenz Amador, S; Vergara-Moragues, E; Rodríguez-Agudelo, Y; Rodriguez-Irizarry, W; García de la Cadena, C; Galvao-Carmona, A; Galarza-Del-Angel, J; Llerena Espezúa, X; Torales Cabrera, N; Flor-Caravia, P; Aguayo Arelis, A; Saracostti Schwartzman, M; Barranco Casimiro, R; Albaladejo-Blázquez, N
2017-01-01
To generate normative data for the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) in Spanish-speaking pediatric populations. The sample consisted of 4,373 healthy children from nine countries in Latin America (Chile, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Puerto Rico) and Spain. Each participant was administered the SDMT as part of a larger neuropsychological battery. SDMT scores were normed using multiple linear regressions and standard deviations of residual values. Age, age2, sex, and mean level of parental education (MLPE) were included as predictors in the analyses. The final multiple linear regression models showed main effects for age in all countries, such that score increased linearly as a function of age. In addition, age2 had a significant effect in all countries, except in Honduras and Puerto Rico. Models indicated that children whose parent(s) had a MLPE >12 years of education obtained higher score compared to children whose parent(s) had a MLPE ≤12 years for Chile, Guatemala, Mexico, and Spain. Sex affected SDMT score for Paraguay and Spain. This is the largest Spanish-speaking pediatric normative study in the world, and it will allow neuropsychologists from these countries to have a more accurate interpretation of the SDMT with pediatric populations.
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Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.
Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart
2014-03-01
Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Population dynamics model for plasmid bearing and plasmid lacking ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Streptokinase production in bioreactor is well associated to cell population dynamics. It is an established fact that two types of cell populations are found to emerge from the initial pool of recombinant cell population. This phenomenon leads to an undesired loss in yield of the product. Primary metabolites, like acetic acid etc ...
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In-hospital pediatric cardiac arrest in Honduras.
Matamoros, Martha; Rodriguez, Roger; Callejas, Allison; Carranza, Douglas; Zeron, Hilda; Sánchez, Carlos; Del Castillo, Jimena; López-Herce, Jesús
2015-01-01
The objective of this study was to analyze the characteristic and the prognostic factors of in-hospital pediatric cardiac arrest (CA) in a public hospital Honduras. A prospective observational study was performed on pediatric in-hospital CA as a part of a multicenter international study. One hundred forty-six children were studied. The primary end point was survival at hospital discharge. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the influence of each factor on mortality. Cardiac arrest occurred in the emergency department in 66.9%. Respiratory diseases and sepsis were predominant causes of CA. Return of spontaneous circulation was achieved in 60% of patients, and 22.6% survived to hospital discharge. The factors related with mortality were nonrespiratory cause of CA (odds ratio [OR], 2.55; P = 0.045), adrenaline administration (OR, 4.96; P = 0.008), and a duration of cardiopulmonary resuscitation more than 10 minutes (OR, 3.40; P = 0.012). In-hospital CA in children in a developing country has low survival. Patients with nonrespiratory causes and those who need adrenaline administration and prolonged resuscitation had worse prognosis.
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Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games
Mabrok, Mohamed
2017-01-05
Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population games, namely so-called “stable games”. In particular, it was shown that a combination of stable games and (an analogue of) passive evolutionary dynamics results in stable convergence to Nash equilibrium. This paper considers the converse question of necessary conditions for evolutionary dynamics to exhibit stable behaviors for all generalized stable games. Using methods from robust control analysis, we show that if an evolutionary dynamic does not satisfy a passivity property, then it is possible to construct a generalized stable game that results in instability. The results are illustrated on selected evolutionary dynamics with particular attention to replicator dynamics, which are also shown to be lossless, a special class of passive systems.
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Population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia species ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es Salaam. Samples ...
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Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar
2012-12-01
The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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A cross-sectional study of pediatric eye care perceptions in Ghana, Honduras, and India.
Ramai, Daryl; Elliott, Ryan; Goldin, Shoshanna; Pulisetty, Tejas
2015-06-01
Of the more than 1.4 million blind children worldwide, 75% live in developing countries. To reduce the prevalence of childhood blindness and associated diseases, attention is given to understanding the perceptions and level of awareness held by caregivers. This understanding can enable tailored health programs to reduce the global prevalence of blindness with increased efficiency. This study, which took place in Ghana, Honduras, and India, found that 95% of caregivers believed in the importance of eye exams for children, yet 66% of caregivers said that none of their children had ever received an eye exam. Participants' major reasons for not bringing their children included the belief that their child had no eye problems along with similar and unique socio-economic barriers. Further information was gained through the use of a five-question test on basic child eye care symptoms, which showed that out of the three country locations, the studied population in India had the least understanding about pediatric eye symptoms. Further analysis revealed significant gaps in understanding of general eye health while detected knowledge barriers provide evidence that fundamental misconceptions appear to be inhibiting caregivers' competence in facilitating their children's eye health. Copyright © 2014 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations.
Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M; Wang, Long
2014-05-06
On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics.
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On the population dynamics of the malaria vector
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ngwa, G.A.
2005-10-01
A deterministic differential equation model for the population dynamics of the human malaria vector is derived and studied. Conditions for the existence and stability of a non-zero steady state vector population density are derived. These reveal that a threshold parameter, the vectorial basic reproduction number, exist and the vector can establish itself in the community if and only if this parameter exceeds unity. When a non-zero steady state population density exists, it can be stable but it can also be driven to instability via a Hopf Bifurcation to periodic solutions, as a parameter is varied in parameter space. By considering a special case, an asymptotic perturbation analysis is used to derive the amplitude of the oscillating solutions for the full non-linear system. The present modelling exercise and results show that it is possible to study the population dynamics of disease vectors, and hence oscillatory behaviour as it is often observed in most indirectly transmitted infectious diseases of humans, without recourse to external seasonal forcing. (author)
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High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.
Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G
2013-06-01
Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.
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Structural policies for the development of the energy sector of the Republic of Honduras
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Montes, J.C.R.
1993-01-01
The development of the energy sources in the Republic of Honduras is discussed. A program has been instituted that is intended to raise productivity, competitiveness and domestic and export production within a free market system and in a stable economic environment. The key elements of the program include the adoption of a market system for exchange rate adjustments; reduction of the fiscal deficit by limiting government spending and increasing local revenues; significant reduction in the level of import protection; liberalization of prices; termination of all state subsides; and liberalization of the investment regime
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Prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Central America: a cross-sectional population-based study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Roy A. Wong-McClure
2015-09-01
Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To report the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS as found by the Central American Diabetes Initiative (CAMDI study for five major Central American populations: Belize (national; Costa Rica (San José; Guatemala (Guatemala City; Honduras (Tegucigalpa; and Nicaragua (Managua. METHODS: Study data on 6 185 adults aged 20 years or older with anthropometric and laboratory determination of MetS from population-based surveys were analyzed. Overall, the survey response rate was 82.0%. MetS prevalence was determined according to criteria from the Adult Treatment Panel III of the National Cholesterol Education Program. The study's protocol was reviewed and approved by the bioethical committee of each country studied. RESULTS: The overall standardized prevalence of MetS in the Central American region was 30.3% (95% confidence interval (CI: 27.1-33.4. There was wide variability by gender and work conditions, with higher prevalence among females and unpaid workers. The standardized percentage of the population free of any component of MetS was lowest in Costa Rica (9.0%; CI: 6.5-11.4 and highest in Honduras (21.1%; CI: 16.4-25.9. CONCLUSIONS: Overall prevalence of MetS in Central America is high. Strengthening surveillance of chronic diseases and establishing effective programs for preventing cardiovascular diseases might reduce the risk of MetS in Central America.
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Bridging the Timescales of Single-Cell and Population Dynamics
Jafarpour, Farshid; Wright, Charles S.; Gudjonson, Herman; Riebling, Jedidiah; Dawson, Emma; Lo, Klevin; Fiebig, Aretha; Crosson, Sean; Dinner, Aaron R.; Iyer-Biswas, Srividya
2018-04-01
How are granular details of stochastic growth and division of individual cells reflected in smooth deterministic growth of population numbers? We provide an integrated, multiscale perspective of microbial growth dynamics by formulating a data-validated theoretical framework that accounts for observables at both single-cell and population scales. We derive exact analytical complete time-dependent solutions to cell-age distributions and population growth rates as functionals of the underlying interdivision time distributions, for symmetric and asymmetric cell division. These results provide insights into the surprising implications of stochastic single-cell dynamics for population growth. Using our results for asymmetric division, we deduce the time to transition from the reproductively quiescent (swarmer) to the replication-competent (stalked) stage of the Caulobacter crescentus life cycle. Remarkably, population numbers can spontaneously oscillate with time. We elucidate the physics leading to these population oscillations. For C. crescentus cells, we show that a simple measurement of the population growth rate, for a given growth condition, is sufficient to characterize the condition-specific cellular unit of time and, thus, yields the mean (single-cell) growth and division timescales, fluctuations in cell division times, the cell-age distribution, and the quiescence timescale.
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Michaels, Jonathan A; Dann, Benjamin; Scherberger, Hansjörg
2016-11-01
Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity.
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The Cure Violence model: violence reduction in San Pedro Sula (Honduras
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Charles Ransford
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Developed in the United States, the Cure Violence model is a programme of epidemic control that reduces violence through changes to norms and behaviour. This article primarily examines the issue of violence in Honduras and, in particular, in San Pedro Sula which was for years the city with the highest homicide rates in the world. To tackle this situation, in 2013 an adapted version of the programme began to be implemented in certain areas of the city. After describing the adaptation of the model to the context of the Honduran city, its results are analysed in two periods of 2014 and 2015 (compared to 2013 and 2014, respectively: a significant reduction in shootings and a minor fall in the homicide figures stand out.
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A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)
2015-10-22
In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.
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A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia
2015-01-01
In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan
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He, Yuan; Zarychta, Alan; Ranz, Joseph B; Carroll, Mary; Singleton, Lori M; Wilson, Paria M; Schlaudecker, Elizabeth P
2012-12-07
Vaccines are highly effective at preventing infectious diseases in children, and prevention is especially important in resource-limited countries where treatment is difficult to access. In Honduras, the World Health Organization (WHO) reports very high immunization rates in children. To determine whether or not these estimates accurately depict the immunization coverage in non-urban regions of the country, we compared the WHO data to immunization rates obtained from a local database tool and community health center records in rural Intibucá, Honduras. We used data from two sources to comprehensively evaluate immunization rates in the area: 1) census data from a local database and 2) immunization data collected at health centers. We compared these rates using logistic regression, and we compared them to publicly available WHO-reported estimates using confidence interval inclusion. We found that mean immunization rates for each vaccine were high (range 84.4 to 98.8 percent), but rates recorded at the health centers were significantly higher than those reported from the census data (p ≤ 0.001). Combining the results from both databases, the mean rates of four out of five vaccines were less than WHO-reported rates (p 0.05), except for diphtheria/tetanus/pertussis vaccine (p=0.02) and oral polio vaccine (p Honduras were high across data sources, though most of the rates recorded in rural Honduras were less than WHO-reported rates. Despite geographical difficulties and barriers to access, the local database and Honduran community health workers have developed a thorough system for ensuring that children receive their immunizations on time. The successful integration of community health workers and a database within the Honduran decentralized health system may serve as a model for other immunization programs in resource-limited countries where health care is less accessible.
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Calculating evolutionary dynamics in structured populations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Charles G Nathanson
2009-12-01
Full Text Available Evolution is shaping the world around us. At the core of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The outcome of an evolutionary process depends on population structure. Here we provide a general formula for calculating evolutionary dynamics in a wide class of structured populations. This class includes the recently introduced "games in phenotype space" and "evolutionary set theory." There can be local interactions for determining the relative fitness of individuals, but we require global updating, which means all individuals compete uniformly for reproduction. We study the competition of two strategies in the context of an evolutionary game and determine which strategy is favored in the limit of weak selection. We derive an intuitive formula for the structure coefficient, sigma, and provide a method for efficient numerical calculation.
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Espinoza, Bernardo A.; Janzen, Daniel H.; Winnie Hallwachs; J. Bolling Sullivan
2013-01-01
Abstract A new species and subspecies of Idalus Walker are described from Costa Rica, Honduras and Guatemala. Images of males and females and their genitalia are provided. Locality information and distribution maps for Costa Rica and for Guatemala are included. The biology and phylogeny of Idalus are discussed. PMID:23730178
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Ashida, Akemi
2015-01-01
Studies have investigated factors that impede enrolment in Honduras. However, they have not analysed individual factors as a whole or identified the relationships among them. This study used longitudinal data for 1971 children who entered primary schools from 1986 to 2000, and employed structural equation modelling to examine the factors…
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New project director for Honduras.
1984-01-01
Miguel Machuca has been installed as project director for the Honduras Contraceptive Social Marketing Program (HCSMP). he was selected from a field of candidates with public and private sector experience in marketing, business management and program development. Machuca will direct the development of the social marketing program and work to establish a marketing function within ASHONPLAFA, the sponsoring organization for HCSMP. A major goal is to correct misinformation or lack of information about family planning methods among consumers and reatilers; for example, consumers worry about the side-effects of oral contraceptives (OCs) and many perceive subsidized products to be either experimental or discards. Easily understandable graphic package naterials are being prepared for OCs distributed through the program. Another goal is sales training. The project is scheduled to be launched in March 1984 with distribution of Perla, a standard dose OC. Radio spots and newspaper ads are being prepared to inform consumers that Perla can be purchased through pharmacies and small rural shops at the cost of US$.75/cycle. A low-dose OC, a condom and a vaginal tablet are scheduled to be added to the product line by December 1984. Market research on brand names, packaging and pricing of these products is currently being conducted. According the Machuca, his biggest challenge will be to maintain a balance between the need to comply with the policies and regulations of the various organizations involved with the HCSMP and the simultaneous need to promote and implement the entrepreneurial activities necessary to project goals.
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2016-03-01
academicos/facultades/ comunicacion -y-publicidad/. 96 “Campus TV,” Campus Television of Honduras, accessed October 9, 2015, http://www.campushd.tv...Relations.” Accessed October 9, 2015. http://www.usap.edu/academicos/facultades/ comunicacion -y-publicidad/. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
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Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals
Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew
2014-01-01
The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.
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Population dynamics and distribution of the coffee berry borer ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Population dynamics and distribution of coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were studied on Coffea arabica L. in southwestern region of Ethiopia. Thirty coffee trees were sampled at weekly intervals from 2000 to 2001. Findings of this study showed that coffee berry borer population ...
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[Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].
Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús
2014-09-01
Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.
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Homogenization techniques for population dynamics in strongly heterogeneous landscapes.
Yurk, Brian P; Cobbold, Christina A
2018-12-01
An important problem in spatial ecology is to understand how population-scale patterns emerge from individual-level birth, death, and movement processes. These processes, which depend on local landscape characteristics, vary spatially and may exhibit sharp transitions through behavioural responses to habitat edges, leading to discontinuous population densities. Such systems can be modelled using reaction-diffusion equations with interface conditions that capture local behaviour at patch boundaries. In this work we develop a novel homogenization technique to approximate the large-scale dynamics of the system. We illustrate our approach, which also generalizes to multiple species, with an example of logistic growth within a periodic environment. We find that population persistence and the large-scale population carrying capacity is influenced by patch residence times that depend on patch preference, as well as movement rates in adjacent patches. The forms of the homogenized coefficients yield key theoretical insights into how large-scale dynamics arise from the small-scale features.
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Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan
2012-06-01
Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.
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Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.
Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H
2007-06-01
Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.
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Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games
Mabrok, Mohamed; Shamma, Jeff S.
2017-01-01
Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population
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Social Information Links Individual Behavior to Population and Community Dynamics.
Gil, Michael A; Hein, Andrew M; Spiegel, Orr; Baskett, Marissa L; Sih, Andrew
2018-05-07
When individual animals make decisions, they routinely use information produced intentionally or unintentionally by other individuals. Despite its prevalence and established fitness consequences, the effects of such social information on ecological dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesize results from ecology, evolutionary biology, and animal behavior to show how the use of social information can profoundly influence the dynamics of populations and communities. We combine recent theoretical and empirical results and introduce simple population models to illustrate how social information use can drive positive density-dependent growth of populations and communities (Allee effects). Furthermore, social information can shift the nature and strength of species interactions, change the outcome of competition, and potentially increase extinction risk in harvested populations and communities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Platini, Thierry; Zia, R K P
2010-01-01
We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (N a and N b ) and preferred degree (κ a and κ b a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees (k bb ) and (k ab ) presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal N a = N b , the ratio of the restricted degree θ 0 = (k ab )/(k bb ) appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t 1 = κ b ) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ 0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t 1 2 ∝κ a and for which θ 0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ 0 = 3
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A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics
Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan
2017-01-01
Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance
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The population dynamical implications of male-biased parasitism in different mating systems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Martin R Miller
2007-07-01
Full Text Available Although there is growing evidence that males tend to suffer higher levels of parasitism than females, the implications of this for the population dynamics of the host population are not yet understood. Here we build on an established 'two-sex' model and investigate how increased susceptibility to infection in males affects the dynamics, under different mating systems. We investigate the effect of pathogenic disease at different case mortalities, under both monogamous and polygynous mating systems. If the case mortality is low, then male-biased parasitism appears similar to unbiased parasitism in terms of its effect on the population dynamics. At higher case mortalities, we identified significant differences between male-biased and unbiased parasitism. A host population may therefore be differentially affected by male-biased and unbiased parasitism. The dynamical outcome is likely to depend on a complex interaction between the host's mating system and demography, and the parasite virulence.
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Encuesta nacional de ceguera y deficiencia visual evitables en Honduras
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Doris Alvarado
2014-11-01
Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Determinar la prevalencia de ceguera y deficiencia visual en Honduras, sus causas y la respuesta que los servicios de salud están dando a la creciente demanda. MÉTODOS: Estudio poblacional transversal realizado entre junio y diciembre de 2013 mediante la metodología estándar de evaluación rápida de ceguera evitable. Se realizó un muestreo aleatorio en 63 conglomerados de 50 personas de 50 años o más, representativo de todo el país. Se evaluó la agudeza visual (AV mediante una cartilla de Snellen y el estado del cristalino y del polo posterior por oftalmoscopía directa. Se calculó la cobertura de cirugía de catarata y se evaluó su calidad, las causas de tener AV < 20/60 y las barreras para acceder al tratamiento quirúrgico. RESULTADOS: Se examinaron 2 999 personas (95,2% del total previsto. La prevalencia de ceguera fue de 1,9% (intervalo de confianza de 95%: 1,4-2,4% y 82,2% de esos casos era evitable. La catarata no operada fue la causa principal de ceguera (59,2%, seguida del glaucoma (21,1%. Los errores de refracción no corregidos fueron la principal causa de deficiencia visual, tanto severa (19,7% como moderada (58,6%. La cobertura de cirugía de catarata fue de 75,2%. De los ojos operados de catarata, 62,5% alcanzó una AV ≥ 20/60 con la corrección disponible. Las principales barreras para someterse a la cirugía de catarata fueron el costo (27,7% y la falta de disponibilidad o de acceso geográfico al tratamiento (24,6%. CONCLUSIONES: La prevalencia de ceguera y deficiencia visual en Honduras es similar a la de otros países latinoamericanos. Mejorar la capacidad resolutiva de los servicios oftalmológicos, especialmente de cirugía de catarata, desarrollar los servicios ópticos y la atención ocular incorporada en la atención primaria en salud, podrían resolver el 67% de los casos de ceguera.
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Effects of wind farms on harbour porpoise behaviour and population dynamics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Tougaard, Jakob; Teilmann, Jonas
We developed an individual-based simulation model in order to study the cumulative impacts of wind farms and ship traffic on the long-term survival and population dynamics of the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in Kattegat and the Belt Seas. The model is based on knowl- edge of the porpoises...... at distances >1 km. Our simulations suggest that operating wind farms and wind farms under construction do not affect the size or dynamics of the harbour porpoise population in Kattegat. Ship traffic may, in contrast, cause the population size to decrease....
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Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joseph G Makin
2015-11-01
Full Text Available Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF, the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm. The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.
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Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.
Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T
2010-07-27
While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.
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The failure rate dynamics in heterogeneous populations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim
2013-01-01
Most populations encountered in real world are heterogeneous. In reliability applications, the mixture (observed) failure rate, obviously, can be considered as a measure of ‘average’ quality in these populations. However, in addition to this average measure, some variability characteristics for failure rates can be very helpful in describing the time-dependent changes in quality of heterogeneous populations. In this paper, we discuss variance and the coefficient of variation of the corresponding random failure rate as variability measures for items in heterogeneous populations. Furthermore, there is often a risk that items of poor quality are selected for important missions. Therefore, along with the ‘average quality’ of a population, more ‘conservative’ quality measures should be also defined and studied. For this purpose, we propose the percentile and the tail-mixture of the failure rates as the corresponding conservative measures. Some illustrative examples are given. -- Highlights: ► This paper provides the insight on the variability measures in heterogeneous populations. ► The conservative quality measures in heterogeneous populations are defined. ► The utility of these measures is illustrated by meaningful examples. ► This paper provides a better understanding of the dynamics in heterogeneous populations
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SIR dynamics in structured populations with heterogeneous connectivity
Volz, Erik
2005-01-01
Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by describing the exact dynamical behavior of epidemics as they occur in random networks. A system of nonlinear differential equations is presented which describes the behavior of epidemics spreading through random networks with arbitrary degree distributions. ...
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Cost-effectiveness analysis of the introduction of the human papillomavirus vaccine in Honduras.
Aguilar, Ida Berenice Molina; Mendoza, Lourdes Otilia; García, Odalys; Díaz, Iris; Figueroa, Jacqueline; Duarte, Rosa María; Perdomo, Gabriel; Garcia, Ana Gabriela Felix; Janusz, Cara Bess
2015-05-07
Cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in Honduras. With the availability of a vaccine to prevent human papillomavirus (HPV), the causative agent for cervical cancer, the Honduran Secretary of Health undertook a cost-effectiveness analysis of introducing the HPV vaccine to support their national decision-making process. A national multidisciplinary team conducted this analysis with the CERVIVAC model, developed by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in collaboration with the Pan American Health Organization's ProVac Initiative. The cumulative costs and health benefits of introducing the HPV vaccine were assessed over the lifetime of one single cohort of 11-year-old girls. We assumed a three-dose series with 95% vaccination coverage of the cohort using a mixture of school-based and facility-based delivery. To estimate national cervical cancer cases and deaths, we used United Nations demographic projections and GLOBOCAN estimates based on registry data from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. Based on estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Division of Intensified Cooperation with Countries (ICO), we assumed that 70% of cervical cancer would be due to vaccine types HPV16 and HPV18. We used a vaccine dose price of US$ 13.45 and evidence from the scientific literature to estimate vaccine effectiveness. National information was used to estimate health service utilization and costs of cervical cancer treatment. All costs and health benefits were discounted at 3%. Upon fully vaccinating 86,906 11-year old girls, 2250 (undiscounted) cervical cancer cases and 1336 (undiscounted) deaths would be prevented over the lifetime of the cohort. After discounting future health benefits at 3% per year, the equivalent cases and deaths prevented were 421 and 170. HPV vaccination is estimated to cost around US$ 5 million per vaccinated cohort, but this would be offset by around US$ 1 million in avoided costs borne by the government to
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An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Duarte M.V.E.
2003-01-01
Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.
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Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mayank N Vahia
Full Text Available Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction.We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples' movement over ~2000 years before the present era.We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available.
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Geography, European colonization, and past population dynamics in Africa
Vaz Silva, Luis
2005-01-01
Past population dynamics in Africa have remained largely elusive due to the lack of demographic data. Researchers are understandably deterred from trying to explain what is not known and African historical population estimates suffer from this lack of interest. In this paper I explain present day African population densities using mostly ecological factors as explanatory variables. I find evidence supporting the view that ecological factors deeply affected precolonial patterns of human settle...
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Ford, Charlotte; Faires, Debbie; Hirsh, Sandra; Carranza, Nítida
2017-01-01
This comparative case study evaluated the role of foreign language study within the Library and Information Science (LIS) curriculum of two programs in the United States and Honduras. The purpose of this research was to understand the significance and usefulness of language courses from the perspective of the students enrolled. Students who had…
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Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh
2013-01-01
Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546
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Nonlinear dynamics of interacting populations
Bazykin, Alexander D
1998-01-01
This book contains a systematic study of ecological communities of two or three interacting populations. Starting from the Lotka-Volterra system, various regulating factors are considered, such as rates of birth and death, predation and competition. The different factors can have a stabilizing or a destabilizing effect on the community, and their interplay leads to increasingly complicated behavior. Studying and understanding this path to greater dynamical complexity of ecological systems constitutes the backbone of this book. On the mathematical side, the tool of choice is the qualitative the
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Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems
Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.
2018-02-01
Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex
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Batke, Sven P; Jocque, Merlijn; Kelly, Daniel L
2014-01-01
High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP), Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS) through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS's were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction) explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field). Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%.
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An Empirical Study of AI Population Dynamics with Million-agent Reinforcement Learning
Yang, Yaodong; Yu, Lantao; Bai, Yiwei; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Weinan; Wen, Ying; Yu, Yong
2017-01-01
In this paper, we conduct an empirical study on discovering the ordered collective dynamics obtained by a population of artificial intelligence (AI) agents. Our intention is to put AI agents into a simulated natural context, and then to understand their induced dynamics at the population level. In particular, we aim to verify if the principles developed in the real world could also be used in understanding an artificially-created intelligent population. To achieve this, we simulate a large-sc...
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2014-06-01
care, life expectancy, and nutrition . That has not changed— on the contrary the GDP per capita in 2006 was the same as in 1980.16 The contrast with...called " Soccer War" and Cold War, militarization in Central America today does not arise principally from interstate conflict. B. TIGRES In Honduras...fraudulent elections in 1968, followed by the defeat of the Honduran military in the 1969 “ Soccer War” against El Salvador. In 1971, labor organizations
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Shakya, Holly B; Stafford, Derek; Hughes, D Alex; Keegan, Thomas; Negron, Rennie; Broome, Jai; McKnight, Mark; Nicoll, Liza; Nelson, Jennifer; Iriarte, Emma; Ordonez, Maria; Airoldi, Edo; Fowler, James H; Christakis, Nicholas A
2017-03-13
Despite global progress on many measures of child health, rates of neonatal mortality remain high in the developing world. Evidence suggests that substantial improvements can be achieved with simple, low-cost interventions within family and community settings, particularly those designed to change knowledge and behaviour at the community level. Using social network analysis to identify structurally influential community members and then targeting them for intervention shows promise for the implementation of sustainable community-wide behaviour change. We will use a detailed understanding of social network structure and function to identify novel ways of targeting influential individuals to foster cascades of behavioural change at a population level. Our work will involve experimental and observational analyses. We will map face-to-face social networks of 30 000 people in 176 villages in Western Honduras, and then conduct a randomised controlled trial of a friendship-based network-targeting algorithm with a set of well-established care interventions. We will also test whether the proportion of the population targeted affects the degree to which the intervention spreads throughout the network. We will test scalable methods of network targeting that would not, in the future, require the actual mapping of social networks but would still offer the prospect of rapidly identifying influential targets for public health interventions. The Yale IRB and the Honduran Ministry of Health approved all data collection procedures (Protocol number 1506016012) and all participants will provide informed consent before enrolment. We will publish our findings in peer-reviewed journals as well as engage non-governmental organisations and other actors through venues for exchanging practical methods for behavioural health interventions, such as global health conferences. We will also develop a 'toolkit' for practitioners to use in network-based intervention efforts, including public
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The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.
Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël
2012-01-01
The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.
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Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Crone, E.E.
1995-11-08
The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.
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Nonequilibrium population dynamics of phenotype conversion of cancer cells.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joseph Xu Zhou
Full Text Available Tumorigenesis is a dynamic biological process that involves distinct cancer cell subpopulations proliferating at different rates and interconverting between them. In this paper we proposed a mathematical framework of population dynamics that considers both distinctive growth rates and intercellular transitions between cancer cell populations. Our mathematical framework showed that both growth and transition influence the ratio of cancer cell subpopulations but the latter is more significant. We derived the condition that different cancer cell types can maintain distinctive subpopulations and we also explain why there always exists a stable fixed ratio after cell sorting based on putative surface markers. The cell fraction ratio can be shifted by changing either the growth rates of the subpopulations (Darwinism selection or by environment-instructed transitions (Lamarckism induction. This insight can help us to understand the dynamics of the heterogeneity of cancer cells and lead us to new strategies to overcome cancer drug resistance.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
César A Macías-Chapula
2012-12-01
Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Diseñar un modelo conceptual sobre la comunicación de los resultados de la investigación científica en el área de la salud pública, en un contexto local. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: A través del enfoque de pensamiento de sistemas se utilizó la Metodología de Sistemas Blandos (MSB y la bibliometría para analizar y resolver una situación problemática relacionada con la transferencia de los resultados de la investigación a los diversos actores del sistema de salud de Honduras. RESULTADOS: Se definieron y modelaron seis definiciones de raíz relevantes a la situación problemática expresada, las cuales llevaron al diseño del modelo conceptual. Éste identificó cuatro niveles de resolución: el de los investigadores, los profesionales de la información/documentación, los profesionales de la salud y la población abierta/la sociedad. CONCLUSIONES: La MSB ayudó a diseñar el modelo conceptual. El estudio bibliométrico fue relevante en la construcción de una imagen rica de la situación problemática.OBJECTIVE: To design a conceptual model on the transference of public health research results at the local, context level. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using systems thinking concepts, a soft systems approach (SSM was used to analyse and solve what was perceived as a problem situation related to the transference of research results within Honduras public health system. A bibliometric analysis was also conducted to enrich the problem situation. RESULTS: Six root definitions were defined and modeled as relevant to the expressed problem situation. This led to the development of the conceptual model. The model obtained identified four levels of resolution as derived from the human activities involved in the transference of research results: 1 those of the researchers; 2 the information/documentation professionals; 3 health staff; and 4 the population/society. These actors/ clients and their activities were essential to the functioning of the
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The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics
Iannelli, Mimmo
2017-01-01
This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...
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Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads
Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa
2014-08-01
Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.
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Russell, Tanya L.; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Knols, Bart G. J.; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F.; Ferguson, Heather M.
2011-01-01
Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAICc support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness. PMID:21389034
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Ongoing removals of invasive lionfish in Honduras and their effect on native Caribbean prey fishes.
Peiffer, Friederike; Bejarano, Sonia; Palavicini de Witte, Giacomo; Wild, Christian
2017-01-01
The invasion of Indo-Pacific lionfish is one of the most pressing concerns in the context of coral reef conservation throughout the Caribbean. Invasive lionfish threaten Caribbean fish communities by feeding on a wide range of native prey species, some of which have high ecological and economic value. In Roatan (Honduras) a local non-governmental organisation (i.e. Roatan Marine Park) trains residents and tourists in the use of spears to remove invasive lionfish. Here, we assess the effectiveness of local removal efforts in reducing lionfish populations. We ask whether reefs subject to relatively frequent removals support more diverse and abundant native fish assemblages compared to sites were no removals take place. Lionfish biomass, as well as density and diversity of native prey species were quantified on reefs subject to regular and no removal efforts. Reefs subject to regular lionfish removals (two to three removals month -1 ) with a mean catch per unit effort of 2.76 ± 1.72 lionfish fisher -1 h -1 had 95% lower lionfish biomass compared to non-removal sites. Sites subject to lionfish removals supported 30% higher densities of native prey-sized fishes compared to sites subject to no removal efforts. We found no evidence that species richness and diversity of native fish communities differ between removal and non-removal sites. We conclude that opportunistic voluntary removals are an effective management intervention to reduce lionfish populations locally and might alleviate negative impacts of lionfish predation. We recommend that local management and the diving industry cooperate to cost-effectively extend the spatial scale at which removal regimes are currently sustained.
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Ongoing removals of invasive lionfish in Honduras and their effect on native Caribbean prey fishes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Friederike Peiffer
2017-10-01
Full Text Available The invasion of Indo-Pacific lionfish is one of the most pressing concerns in the context of coral reef conservation throughout the Caribbean. Invasive lionfish threaten Caribbean fish communities by feeding on a wide range of native prey species, some of which have high ecological and economic value. In Roatan (Honduras a local non-governmental organisation (i.e. Roatan Marine Park trains residents and tourists in the use of spears to remove invasive lionfish. Here, we assess the effectiveness of local removal efforts in reducing lionfish populations. We ask whether reefs subject to relatively frequent removals support more diverse and abundant native fish assemblages compared to sites were no removals take place. Lionfish biomass, as well as density and diversity of native prey species were quantified on reefs subject to regular and no removal efforts. Reefs subject to regular lionfish removals (two to three removals month−1 with a mean catch per unit effort of 2.76 ± 1.72 lionfish fisher−1 h−1 had 95% lower lionfish biomass compared to non-removal sites. Sites subject to lionfish removals supported 30% higher densities of native prey-sized fishes compared to sites subject to no removal efforts. We found no evidence that species richness and diversity of native fish communities differ between removal and non-removal sites. We conclude that opportunistic voluntary removals are an effective management intervention to reduce lionfish populations locally and might alleviate negative impacts of lionfish predation. We recommend that local management and the diving industry cooperate to cost-effectively extend the spatial scale at which removal regimes are currently sustained.
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Population dynamics of light-limited phytoplankton : Microcosm experiments
Huisman, Jef
This paper investigates the extent to which the predictions of an elementary model for light-limited growth are matched by laboratory experiments with light-limited phytoplankton. The model and experiments link the population dynamics of phytoplankton species with changes in the light gradient
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Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.
García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J
2014-12-21
Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Contenido de sodio, azúcares y grasas en los alimentos procesados de mayor consumo en Honduras
Hernández, A.; Di Iorio, A.B.; Tejada, O.A.
2017-01-01
Introducción: Un estudio en jóvenes de la aldea El Jicarito (zona semiurbana de Honduras) refiere que más del 40% consumen bebidas carbonatadas y cereales azucarados de desayuno, 30% consume donas y pan dulce y 19% presentan sobrepeso y obesidad. No existe un estudio nacional sobre el consumo de alimentos ultraprocesados ni su perfil de nutrientes críticos que afectan la salud pública hondureña. Similares estudios se han realizado en Chile y Brasil. Material y método: 520 alimentos procesados...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Roberto E. Barrios
2000-12-01
Full Text Available Hurricanes and other natural disasters can produce crop destruction, population displacement, infrastructure damage, and long-term public health consequences that include increased malnutrition among the affected populations. This paper presents the results of anthropometric measurements taken of 295 children under 5 years of age from three regions of Honduras that were affected by Hurricane Mitch, a major storm that struck Central America in the fall of 1998. The children in our study were sampled in three shelters in the capital city of Tegucigalpa; in the resettlement zone of Nueva Choluteca, Choluteca; and in the small urban area of Catacamas, Olancho. Our data indicated that, in comparison to the period before the hurricane, there was an elevated prevalence of wasting in all three of the study areas, and that there were also high levels of underweight in the Tegucigalpa and Nueva Choluteca study areas. There were statistically significant differences between the mean values of malnutrition indicators for Catacamas and those for the Tegucigalpa and Nueva Choluteca settlements. These differences suggest that resettled families were confronting a nutritional crisis in July and August of 1999, some 9 months after the hurricane struck.Los huracanes y otros desastres naturales pueden destruir cosechas, desplazar a poblaciones enteras, causar daños infraestructurales y acarrear consecuencias a largo plazo para la salud pública, entre ellas un aumento de la desnutrición en las poblaciones afectadas. Este trabajo presenta los resultados de las mediciones antropométricas de 295 niños menores de 5 años de tres zonas de Honduras que fueron azotadas por el huracán Mitch, tempestad que azotó Centroamérica en el otoño de 1998. Los niños que participaron en nuestro estudio provinieron de tres alojamientos provisionales, uno en la capital del país, Tegucigalpa; otro en la zona de asentamiento para refugiados de Nueva Choluteca, Choluteca; y otro
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tung Wenwen; Qi Yan; Gao, J.B.; Cao Yinhe; Billings, Lora
2005-01-01
In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that noise and determinism may have comparable but different influences on population dynamics. However, no simple analysis methods have been introduced into ecology which can readily characterize those impacts. In this paper, we study a population model with strong periodicity and both with and without noise. The noise-free model generates both quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics for certain parameter values. Due to the strong periodicity, however, the generated chaotic dynamics have not been satisfactorily described. The dynamics becomes even more complicated when there is noise. Characterizing the chaotic and stochastic dynamics in this model thus represents a challenging problem. Here we show how the chaotic dynamics can be readily characterized by the direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos developed by [Gao JB, Zheng ZM. Europhys. Lett. 1994;25:485] and how the influence of noise on quasi-periodic motions can be characterized as asymmetric diffusions wandering along the quasi-periodic orbit. It is hoped that the introduced methods will be useful in studying other population models as well as population time series obtained both in field and laboratory experiments
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Efficient characterisation of large deviations using population dynamics
Brewer, Tobias; Clark, Stephen R.; Bradford, Russell; Jack, Robert L.
2018-05-01
We consider population dynamics as implemented by the cloning algorithm for analysis of large deviations of time-averaged quantities. We use the simple symmetric exclusion process with periodic boundary conditions as a prototypical example and investigate the convergence of the results with respect to the algorithmic parameters, focussing on the dynamical phase transition between homogeneous and inhomogeneous states, where convergence is relatively difficult to achieve. We discuss how the performance of the algorithm can be optimised, and how it can be efficiently exploited on parallel computing platforms.
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Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians
John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer
2006-01-01
Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...
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Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods
Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L
2014-01-01
This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations. The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity, population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models. The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.
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Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes and associated damage to potato
Schans, J.
1993-01-01
Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes (PCN; Globoderarostochiensis (Woll.) Skarbilovich and G. pallida Stone) and their interactions with potato plants are insufficiently understood to explain variations of population
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Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael
2014-01-01
The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.
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Boom or bust? A comparative analysis of transient population dynamics in plants
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stott, Iain; Franco, Miguel; Carslake, David
2010-01-01
researchers as further possible effectors of complicated dynamics. Previously published methods of transient analysis have tended to require knowledge of initial population structure. However, this has been overcome by the recent development of the parametric Kreiss bound (which describes how large...... a population must become before reaching its maximum possible transient amplification following a disturbance) and the extension of this and other transient indices to simultaneously describe both amplified and attenuated transient dynamics. We apply the Kreiss bound and other transient indices to a data base...... worrying artefact of basic model parameterization. Synthesis. Transient indices describe how big or how small plant populations can get, en route to long-term stable rates of increase or decline. The patterns we found in the potential for transient dynamics, across many species of plants, suggest...
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An individual-based probabilistic model for simulating fisheries population dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jie Cao
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations. Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and negative impacts on the economy of the resource users. Thus, accuracte estimations of population size, growth rates are critical for success. Evaluating and testing the behavior and performance of stock assessment models and assessing the consequences of model mis-specification and the impact of management strategies requires an operating model that accurately describe the dynamics of the target species, and can resolve spatial and seasonal changes. In addition, the most thorough evaluations of assessment models use an operating model that takes a different form than the assessment model. This paper presents an individual-based probabilistic model used to simulate the complex dynamics of populations and their associated fisheries. Various components of population dynamics are expressed as random Bernoulli trials in the model and detailed life and fishery histories of each individual are tracked over their life span. The simulation model is designed to be flexible so it can be used for different species and fisheries. It can simulate mixing among multiple stocks and link stock-recruit relationships to environmental factors. Furthermore, the model allows for flexibility in sub-models (e.g., growth and recruitment and model assumptions (e.g., age- or size-dependent selectivity. This model enables the user to conduct various simulation studies, including testing the performance of assessment models under different assumptions, assessing the impacts of model mis-specification and evaluating management strategies.
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Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics
Bressloff, Paul C.
2010-01-01
We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand
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Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.
Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex
2013-02-01
Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.
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An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gilberto González Parra
2010-08-01
Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.
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Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm
2017-10-03
Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.
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Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M
2018-02-03
For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.
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Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gardmark, Anna
2011-01-01
-up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue....... Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life...... cycle. Our results indicate significant bottom-up effects of zooplankton and interspecific competition from sprat (Sprattus sprattus), particularly on younger age classes of herring. Although top-down forcing through fishing and predation by grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Inty T Arcos
2008-03-01
Full Text Available El estudió se realizó en la microcuenca del río Sesesmiles, Departamento de Copán, Honduras. El propósito fue explorar el efecto del ancho de franja de los bosques ribereños sobre la riqueza y abundancia de especies de aves que visitan estos bosques. Se encontraron 1 294 aves pertenecientes a 145 especies en bosques ribereños. La diversidad de aves estuvo ligada al ancho de franja de los bosques ribereños: se encontró mayor número de especies e individuos, en anchos iguales o mayores a 50 m. Las especies pertenecientes al grupo alimenticio de los insectívoros y nectarívoros fueron las más abundantes en las franjas ribereñas. Todas las especies de aves identificadas dependen de los bosques ribereños y responden al ancho del bosque; aún las especies más generalistas tienen algún grado de dependencia a las franjas ribereñas más anchas. Para conservar las poblaciones de aves en los paisajes agrícolas fragmentados es de suma importancia mantener franjas ribereñas que sean mayores a 50 m de ancho y que brinden suficientes habitas y recursos.Richness and abundance of birds in riparian forest belts of varied breadths at the Sesesmiles river microwatershed, Copan, Honduras. Riparian forests protect many species of plants and animals. We studied bird communities in riparian forest belts of the Sesesmiles river microwatershed, Copan, Honduras (140o 43’ 12" - 140o 58’ 35" N, 88o 53’ 23" - 89o 14’ 17" W. The main goal was to explore the effects of belt breadth on the richness and abundance of avian species visiting these forests. We selected 20 belts, and randomly established 30 observation points to monitor bird presence in the dry (March-April 2005 and rainy (June-July 2005 season (N= 60 observations. A total of 1 294 birds belonging to 145 species were recorded. Bird diversity was significantly correlated to the breadth of the riparian belts, with a greater number of species and individuals in belts 50 m wide or wider
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Soebiyanto, Radina P; Clara, Wilfrido A; Jara, Jorge; Balmaseda, Angel; Lara, Jenny; Lopez Moya, Mariel; Palekar, Rakhee; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Kiang, Richard K
2015-11-04
Seasonal influenza affects a considerable proportion of the global population each year. We assessed the association between subnational influenza activity and temperature, specific humidity and rainfall in three Central America countries, i.e. Costa Rica, Honduras and Nicaragua. Using virologic data from each country's national influenza centre, rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and air temperature and specific humidity data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System, we applied logistic regression methods for each of the five sub-national locations studied. Influenza activity was represented by the weekly proportion of respiratory specimens that tested positive for influenza. The models were adjusted for the potentially confounding co-circulating respiratory viruses, seasonality and previous weeks' influenza activity. We found that influenza activity was proportionally associated (P<0.05) with specific humidity in all locations [odds ratio (OR) 1.21-1.56 per g/kg], while associations with temperature (OR 0.69-0.81 per °C) and rainfall (OR 1.01-1.06 per mm/day) were location-dependent. Among the meteorological parameters, specific humidity had the highest contribution (~3-15%) to the model in all but one location. As model validation, we estimated influenza activity for periods, in which the data was not used in training the models. The correlation coefficients between the estimates and the observed were ≤0.1 in 2 locations and between 0.6-0.86 in three others. In conclusion, our study revealed a proportional association between influenza activity and specific humidity in selected areas from the three Central America countries.
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Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans
Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.
2014-01-01
Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.
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Diffusion of non-traditional cookstoves across western Honduras: A social network analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ramirez, Sebastian; Dwivedi, Puneet; Ghilardi, Adrian; Bailis, Robert
2014-01-01
A third of the world's population uses inefficient biomass stoves, contributing to severe health problems, forest degradation, and climate change. Clean burning, fuel-efficient, non-traditional cookstoves (NTCS) are a promising solution; however, numerous projects fail during the diffusion process. We use social network analysis to reveal patterns driving a successful stove intervention in western Honduras. The intervention lacks formal marketing, but has spread across a wide area in just a few years. To understand the process, we map the social network of active community members who drove diffusion across a large swath of the country. We find that most ACMs heard about stoves twice before sharing information about it with others and introducing the stove into their own communities. On average, the social distance between ACMs and the project team is 3 degrees of separation. Both men and women are critical to the diffusion process, but men tend to communicate over longer distances, while women principally communicate over shorter distances. Government officials are also crucial to diffusion. Understanding how information moves through social networks and across geographic space allows us to theorize how knowledge about beneficial technologies spreads in the absence of formal marketing and inform policies for NTCS deployment worldwide. - Highlights: • We build a chain of referrals to track spread of information about non traditional cookstoves. • We find differences among gender and occupations that should inform policy. • People hear about the stoves twice before becoming suppliers of information. • Government officials play a substantial role in the diffusion. • Males play leading role in diffusion over long distances, females in short distances
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Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long
2017-02-01
In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.
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Stress disorders of families of the disappeared: a controlled study in Honduras.
Quirk, G J; Casco, L
1994-12-01
The effect of forced disappearance on the physical and psychological health of family members was assessed by interviews carried out in Honduras. Families of the disappeared were compared with two control groups: (1) families who lost a member due to accident or illness; and (2) families where no one had died within the past 10 years. Constellations of stress-related symptoms commonly seen in post-traumatic stress disorder and other anxiety disorders were approx. 2 times more prevalent in families of the disappeared as compared to the other two groups, indicating that families of the disappeared suffer over and above that due to normal grieving. It is suggested that the atmosphere of fear and isolation experienced by families of the disappeared is a causative factor in the prolongation of stress-related disorders years after the traumatic event.
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Missing cycles: Effect of climate change on population dynamics
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
population dynamics of the larch budmoth – an insect pest which causes massive defoliation of entire larch forests ... hypothesized that global warming has led to the collapse of the cycles ... When temperatures increase after winter, and the.
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Impact of environmental colored noise in single-species population dynamics
Spanio, Tommaso; Hidalgo, Jorge; Muñoz, Miguel A.
2017-10-01
Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental role in the way living systems adapt and respond to it. A proper mathematical approach to understand population dynamics, thus, requires approaches more refined than, e.g., simple white-noise approximations. To shed further light onto this problem, in this paper we propose a unifying framework based on different analytical and numerical tools available to deal with "colored" environmental noise. In particular, we employ a "unified colored noise approximation" to map the original problem into an effective one with white noise, and then we apply a standard path integral approach to gain analytical understanding. For the sake of specificity, we present our approach using as a guideline a variation of the contact process—which can also be seen as a birth-death process of the Malthus-Verhulst class—where the propagation or birth rate varies stochastically in time. Our approach allows us to tackle in a systematic manner some of the relevant questions concerning population dynamics under environmental variability, such as determining the stationary population density, establishing the conditions under which a population may become extinct, and estimating extinction times. We focus on the emerging phase diagram and its possible phase transitions, underlying how these are affected by the presence of environmental noise time-correlations.
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Fernandes, Francisco S; Godoy, Wesley A C; Ramalho, Francisco S; Garcia, Adriano G; Santos, Bárbara D B; Malaquias, José B
2018-01-01
Population dynamics of aphids have been studied in sole and intercropping systems. These studies have required the use of more precise analytical tools in order to better understand patterns in quantitative data. Mathematical models are among the most important tools to explain the dynamics of insect populations. This study investigated the population dynamics of aphids Aphis gossypii and Aphis craccivora over time, using mathematical models composed of a set of differential equations as a helpful analytical tool to understand the population dynamics of aphids in arrangements of cotton and cowpea. The treatments were sole cotton, sole cowpea, and three arrangements of cotton intercropped with cowpea (t1, t2 and t3). The plants were infested with two aphid species and were evaluated at 7, 14, 28, 35, 42, and 49 days after the infestations. Mathematical models were used to fit the population dynamics of two aphid species. There were good fits for aphid dynamics by mathematical model over time. The highest population peak of both species A. gossypii and A. craccivora was found in the sole crops, and the lowest population peak was found in crop system t2. These results are important for integrated management programs of aphids in cotton and cowpea.
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Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta
2009-01-01
We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).
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Gabrie, José Antonio; Rueda, María Mercedes; Canales, Maritza; Gyorkos, Theresa W; Sanchez, Ana Lourdes
2014-08-04
Among many neglected tropical diseases endemic in Honduras, soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are of particular importance. However, knowledge gaps remain in terms of risk factors involved in infection transmission. The aim of this study was to investigate risk factors associated with STH infections in schoolchildren living in rural Honduras. A cross-sectional study was conducted among Honduran rural schoolchildren in 2011. Demographic, socio-economic, and epidemiological data were obtained through a standardized questionnaire and STH infections were determined by the Kato-Katz method. Logistic regression models accounting for school clustering were used to assess putative risk factors for infection. A total of 320 children completed the study. Prevalences for any STH and for Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworms were: 72.5%, 30.3%, 66.9% and 15.9%, respectively. A number of risk factors were identified at the individual, household, and school level. Boys were at increased odds of infection with hookworms (OR 2.33, 95% CI = 1.23-4.42). Higher socio-economic status in the family had a protective effect against infections by A. lumbricoides (OR 0.80, 95% CI = 0.65-0.99) and T. trichiura (OR 0.77, 95% CI = 0.63-0.94).Low school hygiene conditions significantly increased the odds for ascariasis (OR 14.85, 95% CI = 7.29-30.24), trichuriasis (OR 7.32, 95% CI = 3.71-14.45), mixed infections (OR 9.02, 95% CI = 4.66-17.46), and ascariasis intensity of infection (OR 3.32, 95% CI = 1.05 -10.52).Children attending schools not providing deworming treatment or that had provided it only once a year were at increased odds of ascariasis (OR 10.40, 95% CI = 4.39-24.65), hookworm (OR 2.92, 95% CI = 1.09-7.85) and mixed infections (OR 10.57, 95% CI = 4.53-24.66). Poverty-reduction strategies will ultimately lead to sustainable control of STH infections in Honduras, but as shorter-term measures, uninterrupted bi
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Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria
2005-06-01
1973. Ecology of Vibrio parahemolyticus in mixed-template amplifications: formation, consequences and elimination by Chesapeake Bay. J. Bacteriol. 113...Science 1930 and Engineering DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria by...DYNAMICS IN NATURAL POPULATIONS OF PLANKTONIC VIBRIO BACTERIA by Janelle Ren6e Thompson B.S. Biological Sciences, Stanford University 1998 M.S
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marko Porčić
Full Text Available The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC. These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis.
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Population ecology, nonlinear dynamics, and social evolution. I. Associations among nonrelatives.
Avilés, Leticia; Abbot, Patrick; Cutter, Asher D
2002-02-01
Using an individual-based and genetically explicit simulation model, we explore the evolution of sociality within a population-ecology and nonlinear-dynamics framework. Assuming that individual fitness is a unimodal function of group size and that cooperation may carry a relative fitness cost, we consider the evolution of one-generation breeding associations among nonrelatives. We explore how parameters such as the intrinsic rate of growth and group and global carrying capacities may influence social evolution and how social evolution may, in turn, influence and be influenced by emerging group-level and population-wide dynamics. We find that group living and cooperation evolve under a wide range of parameter values, even when cooperation is costly and the interactions can be defined as altruistic. Greater levels of cooperation, however, did evolve when cooperation carried a low or no relative fitness cost. Larger group carrying capacities allowed the evolution of larger groups but also resulted in lower cooperative tendencies. When the intrinsic rate of growth was not too small and control of the global population size was density dependent, the evolution of large cooperative tendencies resulted in dynamically unstable groups and populations. These results are consistent with the existence and typical group sizes of organisms ranging from the pleometrotic ants to the colonial birds and the global population outbreaks and crashes characteristic of organisms such as the migratory locusts and the tree-killing bark beetles.
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Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis
2012-01-01
Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.
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Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis
2012-01-01
Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mauricio Lima
Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.
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Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bakanev Sergey ...
2012-10-01
Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.
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Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress.
Dakos, Vasilis; Glaser, Sarah M; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Sugihara, George
2017-03-01
Populations occasionally experience abrupt changes, such as local extinctions, strong declines in abundance or transitions from stable dynamics to strongly irregular fluctuations. Although most of these changes have important ecological and at times economic implications, they remain notoriously difficult to detect in advance. Here, we study changes in the stability of populations under stress across a variety of transitions. Using a Ricker-type model, we simulate shifts from stable point equilibrium dynamics to cyclic and irregular boom-bust oscillations as well as abrupt shifts between alternative attractors. Our aim is to infer the loss of population stability before such shifts based on changes in nonlinearity of population dynamics. We measure nonlinearity by comparing forecast performance between linear and nonlinear models fitted on reconstructed attractors directly from observed time series. We compare nonlinearity to other suggested leading indicators of instability (variance and autocorrelation). We find that nonlinearity and variance increase in a similar way prior to the shifts. By contrast, autocorrelation is strongly affected by oscillations. Finally, we test these theoretical patterns in datasets of fisheries populations. Our results suggest that elevated nonlinearity could be used as an additional indicator to infer changes in the dynamics of populations under stress. © 2017 The Author(s).
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Collective dynamics of populations of weakly correlated filaments of incoherent white light
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guo, Jinxin; Sheridan, John T; Saravanamuttu, Kalaichelvi
2013-01-01
We examined the dynamics of two populations of self-trapped filaments of spatially and temporally incoherent white light. The populations consisted of (i) independent filaments generated through self-trapping of incandescent speckles, and (ii) co-dependent filaments created through modulation instability of a broad incandescent beam. Both filament populations were positionally stable in conditions where individual pairs of self-trapped beams interact strongly. Both also acquired significantly broad intensity distributions, which were independent of their parent optical fields; a small but persistent number of high-intensity filaments was identified in both cases. These studies provide accessible routes to weakly correlated ensembles, insight into their collective behaviour such as self-stabilization and self-selected intensity distributions, and reveal intriguing similarities between the dynamics of two populations of different origins. (paper)
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Application of System Dynamics Methodology in Population Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
August Turina
2009-09-01
Full Text Available The goal of this work is to present the application of system dynamics and system thinking, as well as the advantages and possible defects of this analytic approach, in order to improve the analysis of complex systems such as population and, thereby, to monitor more effectively the underlying causes of migrations. This methodology has long been present in interdisciplinary scientific circles, but its scientific contribution has not been sufficiently applied in analysis practice in Croatia. Namely, the major part of system analysis is focused on detailed complexity rather than on dynamic complexity. Generally, the science of complexity deals with emergence, innovation, learning and adaptation. Complexity is viewed according to the number of system components, or through a number of combinations that must be continually analyzed in order to understand and consequently provide adequate decisions. Simulations containing thousands of variables and complex arrays of details distract overall attention from the basic cause patterns and key inter-relations emerging and prevailing within an analyzed population. Systems thinking offers a holistic and integral perspective for observation of the world.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Medvinsky, Alexander B.; Rusakov, Alexey V.
2011-01-01
Highlights: → We model community dynamics in stateless societies. → Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. → Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. → Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Medvinsky, Alexander B., E-mail: medvinsky@iteb.ru [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Rusakov, Alexey V. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)
2011-06-15
Highlights: > We model community dynamics in stateless societies. > Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. > Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. > Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
W.J. Santos-Fernández
2016-07-01
Conclusion: The prevalence of asthma was higher than in other Latin American regions, with the most cases in participants of African descent, and those with a family history of asthma. The results will provide important data on asthma in Honduras and will contribute to the identification of risk groups.
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Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics
Bressloff, Paul C.
2010-11-03
We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand, for finite N the dynamics is described by a master equation that determines the probability of spiking activity within each population. We first consider a single excitatory population that exhibits bistability in the deterministic limit. The steady-state probability distribution of the stochastic network has maxima at points corresponding to the stable fixed points of the deterministic network; the relative weighting of the two maxima depends on the system size. For large but finite N, we calculate the exponentially small rate of noise-induced transitions between the resulting metastable states using a Wentzel-Kramers- Brillouin (WKB) approximation and matched asymptotic expansions. We then consider a two-population excitatory or inhibitory network that supports limit cycle oscillations. Using a diffusion approximation, we reduce the dynamics to a neural Langevin equation, and show how the intrinsic noise amplifies subthreshold oscillations (quasicycles). © 2010 The American Physical Society.
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Population dynamics in the high Arctic: Climate variations in time and space
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine
Climatic factors profoundly influence the population dynamics, species interactions and demography of Arctic species. Analyses of the spatio-temporal dynamics within and across species are therefore necessary to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climatic variability...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. G. Gudym
2016-06-01
Full Text Available We have researched the population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii Lohmander, 1928 in the arena of the Dnepr river (within the "Dnieper-Orilsky” Nature Reserve and also present a full picture of the habitat distribution of Julidae within the researched area. The tested models were basic types of arena biogeocenosis: sand steppe, black maple forests, artificial pine plantations, deciduous forest, meadow and swamp. Variation in population density of B. jawlowskii is determined by biotopical features. The swamp and meadow habitats can be characterized by the highest level of population dynamics. B. jawlowskii plays the greatest role in the herpetobiont grouping in swamp and oak forest habitats (6.7% and 4.6% respectively. In other types of habitat this species composes 0.1–3.5% of the total abundance of this group. The highest abundance dynamic was reached by the Julidae cenopopulations which inhabit the swamp, oak forest and meadow habitats. B. jawlowskii occupies a relatively significant share in the herpetobiont communities of these habitats. Thus, the indicators of absolute number of this species and its relative participation in the herpertobiont grouping indicate the preference of this species for marsh, oak forest and meadow habitats. These habitats can be characterized by an excessive or moderate level of edaphotopic humidification. The ecosystem of the steppe zone of Ukraine is subject to significant human impact. In nature reserves, this effect is minimized, which permits research to be conducted on regimes of natural population dynamics. We established that B. jawlowskii inhabits all habitats investigated within the arena zone of the Dnepr river. This indicates that this is an environmentally flexible Julidae species. The population dynamics of B. jawlowskii can be characterized by three distinct periods: spring-summer, summer and autumn. Each of these periods is characterized by a distinct population dynamic, but throughout the
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Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model
Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.
2002-03-01
We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.
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Los ferrocarriles de la República de Honduras
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García, Marcela Alejandra
1996-06-01
Full Text Available Not available.
El desarrollo ferroviario de Honduras respondió, ante todo, a las aspiraciones y necesidades del capital extranjero, fundamentalmente norteamericano. El descubrimiento del oro en California, primero, planteó el interés por abrir vías de comunicación en Centroamérica que comunicasen el Océano Atlántico y el Pacífico. La explotación del banano, después, implicó la explotación de una serie de líneas de ferrocarril que aseguraron el abastecimiento de este producto en el mercado norteamericano. La intención de este trabajo es mostrar la forma en que el desarrollo ferroviario hondureño dependió de las oscilaciones del negocio bananero. Como medio de transporte, adoleció prácticamente de efectos multiplicadores sobre el desarrollo económico y social del país, controlado por las empresas bananeras, concentradas en la región norte del país. Concluido el ciclo alcista de las economías exportadoras y, enfrentado a la competencia de nuevos medios de transporte y a la relativa diversificación económica de la segunda mitad del siglo XX en el marco del Mercado Común Centroamericano, se verá sumido en una crisis de carácter estructural que explica su lamentable estado actual. -
Maternal Support for Human Papillomavirus Vaccination in Honduras
Langrish, Sarah M.; Cotton, Deborah J.; Simon, Carol J.
2011-01-01
Abstract Background Cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer death for women in Latin America, and vaccinating against human papillomavirus (HPV) has the potential to limit this disease. We sought to determine Honduran women's awareness of HPV vaccination and interest in vaccinating their daughters against HPV. Methods We interviewed mothers aged ≥17 at primary care clinics in Honduras. First, we collected demographic information and assessed knowledge related to cervical cancer prevention and awareness of HPV and HPV vaccination. Because most participants were not familiar with HPV, education about the relationships among HPV, sexual activity, and cervical cancer was provided before we asked participants if they would accept HPV vaccination for a 9-year-old daughter. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine predictors of vaccine acceptance. Results We interviewed 632 mothers. Only 13% had heard of HPV vaccination before the interview. After education, 91% would accept HPV vaccination for a 9-year-old daughter. Mothers who intended to vaccinate knew more at baseline about cervical cancer prevention than did those who did not endorse vaccination. Demographic characteristics did not predict vaccine acceptance. Conclusions Few Honduran mothers were aware of HPV or HPV vaccination. However, most Honduran mothers would accept HPV vaccination for their daughters after receiving education about the relationship between HPV infection and cervical cancer. Baseline cervical cancer knowledge was associated with vaccine acceptance. PMID:21091226
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Noise-induced effects in population dynamics
Spagnolo, Bernardo; Cirone, Markus; La Barbera, Antonino; de Pasquale, Ferdinando
2002-03-01
We investigate the role of noise in the nonlinear relaxation of two ecosystems described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise. Specifically we study two cases: (i) an ecosystem with two interacting species in the presence of periodic driving; (ii) an ecosystem with a great number of interacting species with random interaction matrix. We analyse the interplay between noise and periodic modulation for case (i) and the role of the noise in the transient dynamics of the ecosystem in the presence of an absorbing barrier in case (ii). We find that the presence of noise is responsible for the generation of temporal oscillations and for the appearance of spatial patterns in the first case. In the other case we obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the time average of the ith population and discuss the effect of the noise on the probability distributions of the population and of the local field.
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Hirunsalee, Anan; Barker, K. R.; Beute, M. K.
1995-01-01
A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduc...
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Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wei-Bin Zhang
2016-05-01
Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.
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Honduras: hacia una reconfiguración del sistema partidario tras las elecciones generales de 2013
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cecilia Graciela Rodríguez
2015-09-01
Full Text Available This paper analyzes the results of the general elections held on November 24th, 2013 in Honduras in which Juan Orlando Hernández, a member of the conservative National Party, emerged as the winner. The results of these elections, marked by the crisis of 2009, allowed the ruling party to continue in power. The present analysis focuses on the political context in which the elections were held, as well as the main challenges the country faces. The article also discusses the effects of the electoral process on the Honduran party system, highlighting the transition from iron-clad bipartisanship to an incipient multi-party system that will condition the political scene in the years to come.
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Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lilia M. Ladino
2016-01-01
Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.
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Dynamic assessments of population exposure to urban greenspace using multi-source big data.
Song, Yimeng; Huang, Bo; Cai, Jixuan; Chen, Bin
2018-09-01
A growing body of evidence has proven that urban greenspace is beneficial to improve people's physical and mental health. However, knowledge of population exposure to urban greenspace across different spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. Moreover, the majority of existing environmental assessments are unable to quantify how residents enjoy their ambient greenspace during their daily life. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a dynamic method to assess urban greenspace exposure with the integration of mobile-phone locating-request (MPL) data and high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. This method was further applied to 30 major cities in China by assessing cities' dynamic greenspace exposure levels based on residents' surrounding areas with different buffer scales (0.5km, 1km, and 1.5km). Results showed that regarding residents' 0.5-km surrounding environment, Wenzhou and Hangzhou were found to be with the greenest exposure experience, whereas Zhengzhou and Tangshan were the least ones. The obvious diurnal and daily variations of population exposure to their surrounding greenspace were also identified to be highly correlated with the distribution pattern of urban greenspace and the dynamics of human mobility. Compared with two common measurements of urban greenspace (green coverage rate and green area per capita), the developed method integrated the dynamics of population distribution and geographic locations of urban greenspace into the exposure assessment, thereby presenting a more reasonable way to assess population exposure to urban greenspace. Additionally, this dynamic framework could hold potential utilities in supporting urban planning studies and environmental health studies and advancing our understanding of the magnitude of population exposure to greenspace at different spatiotemporal scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marilyn J. Roossinck
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.
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Ramírez-Izcoa, Alejandro; Sánchez-Sierra, Luis Enrique; Mejía-Irías, Carlos; Izaguirre González, Allan Iván; Alvarado-Avilez, Cindy; Flores-Moreno, Rosaura; Yareny Miranda, Kyrian; M-Díaz, Claudia; Grissel Aguilar, Videlda; Rivera, Elena E
2017-01-01
Objetivo: Comparar los factores asociados de sobrepeso y obesidad en los niños de escuelas públicas y privadas de la colonia Kennedy, Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Materiales y Métodos. Se estudiaron 357 escolares entre 6 y 11 años. Se realizó evaluación nutricional, frecuencia de consumo, hábitos y prácticas alimentarias y actividad física mediante encuesta. Se excluyeron escolares con sobrepeso y obesidad secundaria a una patología de base. La información fue analizada con el programa Epi-info, se...
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Factors affecting population dynamics of maternally transmitted endosymbionts in Bemisia tabaci.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Huipeng Pan
Full Text Available While every individual of Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae harbors the primary symbiont (P-symbiont Portiera, the infection frequencies of the six secondary symbionts (S-symbionts including Hamiltonella, Arsenophonus, Cardinium, Wolbachia, Rickettsia and Fritschea vary greatly among different populations. To characterize the factors influencing the infection dynamics of the six S-symbionts in B. tabaci, gene-specific PCR were conducted to screen for the presence of the P-symbiont Portiera and the six S-symbionts in 61 (17 B and 44 Q biotypes field populations collected from different plant species and locations in China. All individuals of the 61 populations hosted the P-symbiont Portiera, but none of them harbored Arsenophonus and Fritschea. The presence and infection rates of Hamiltonella, Cardinium, Rickettsia, Wolbachia and their co-infections Rickettsia + Hamiltonella (RH, Rickettsia + Cardinium (RC, Hamiltonella + Cardinium (HC and Rickettsia + Hamiltonella + Cardinium (RHC varied significantly among the 61 field populations; and the observed variations can be explained by biotypes, sexes, host plants and geographical locations of these field populations. Taken together, at least three factors including biotype, host plant and geographical location affect the infection dynamics of S-symbionts in B. tabaci.
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Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.
Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara
2007-04-01
A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.
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Community trust and household health: A spatially-based approach with evidence from rural Honduras.
Zarychta, Alan
2015-12-01
What is the relationship between community trust and household health? Scholars working to understand the effects of trust and social capital on human health tend to focus on individual characteristics or social environments, frequently without integrating these two dimensions. In light of this, the present paper makes contributions in both conceptualization and measurement. First, I develop a spatially-based approach for operationalizing community trust as the product of individual orientation and social environment. This approach highlights the need for a household to trust its neighbors and for those neighbors to reciprocate trust in order to constitute the psychological and material mechanisms critical for linking social context to individual health. Second, I illustrate the utility of this measure by evaluating the relationship between community trust and self-rated health status using an original population census survey from 2009 to 2010 for two municipalities in western Honduras (approximately 2800 households with a response rate of 94.9%). I implement spatial regression analysis and show that there is a positive and substantively meaningful relationship between community trust and household health; households that are trusting and surrounded by similarly trusting neighbors report better health status, while those in uncertain or mutually distrusting environments report worse health. The theory and results presented here suggest an important link between trust and social capital at the community level, which is particularly salient for rural regions in developing countries where health resources are scarce and community-based interventions are common. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Aravind, N.P.; Sheeba, P.; Nair, K.K.C.; Achuthankutty, C.T.
Life history and Population Dynamics of an Estuarine Amphipod –Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae) Nisha. P. Aravind, P. Sheeba, K.K.C. Nair and C.T.Achuthankutty* National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, Cochin 682018, India... of laboratory data to the field suggests that E. chilkensis in Cochin estuary has a multivoltine life cycle. Key words: - Eriopisa chilkensis, Amphipoda, life cycle, population dynamics, Cochin estuary, India 2 1. Introduction Life-history traits of 214 amphipod...
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Hirunsalee, A; Barker, K R; Beute, M K
1995-06-01
A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduction, and root-damage potentials on susceptible tobacco were similar for Ma1 and Ma2. In the mixed (1:1) population, Ma1 was dominant on peanut and Ma2 was dominant on both tobacco cultivars. Crop rotation affected the population dynamics of different nematode races. For years 2 and 3, the low numbers of Ma1 and Ma2 from a previous-year poor host increased rapidly on suitable hosts. Ma1 had greater reproduction factors ([RF] = population density at harvest/population density at preplandng) than did Ma2 and Ma1 + Ma2 in second-year peanut plots following first-year resistant tobacco, and in third-year peanut plots following second-year tobacco. In mixed infestations, Ma1 predominated over Ma2 in previous-year peanut plots, whereas Ma2 predominated over Ma1 in previous-year tobacco plots. Moderate damage on resistant tobacco was induced by Ma1 in the second year. In the third year, moderate damage on peanut was associated with 'Ma2' from previous-year peanut plots. The resistant tobacco supported sufficient reproduction of Ma1 over 2 years to effect moderate damage and yield suppression to peanut in year 3.
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seasonal population dynamics of rodents of mount chilalo, arsi ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
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ABSTRACT: A study on seasonal population dynamics of rodents was carried out on Mount. Chilalo from .... vegetation growth, availability of food and water, and ... vegetation (3,300–4,200 masl) (Alemayehu. Mengistu, 1975; APEDO and ABRDP, 2004). The mountain is one of the Afrotropical biodiversity hotspots areas.
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Population Dynamics of Biota on the Roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
NITA ETIKAWATI
2000-01-01
Full Text Available Azolla was a special fern that their associations with Anabaena azollae able to fix free nitrogen from air, to produce protein. Although by the ages, biota diversity those habits on the roots of Azolla increased and effected to protein concentration. The research was to find out population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss and the growth peak. This study used Completely Randomized Design with 10 kinds of biota, i.e. bacteria, Fungi, Actinomycetes, Protozoa, Alga, Crustacean, Rotifers, Coelenterate, Insect and Molluscs, and it was used 3 replications. Research was conducted within 4 weeks and the populations of biota were observed every week. Data were statistically analyzed using Analysis Variant and Duncan’s Multiple Range Test. The population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss were influenced on its quantity and composition, and the growth peak is done in 2nd week.
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McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.
We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡
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Population dynamics of Ascaris suum in trickle-infected pigs.
Nejsum, Peter; Thamsborg, Stig M; Petersen, Heidi H; Kringel, Helene; Fredholm, Merete; Roepstorff, Allan
2009-10-01
The population dynamics of Ascaris suum was studied by long-term exposure of pigs to infective eggs. The pigs were experimentally inoculated with 25 A. suum eggs/kg/day, and 7, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 postinoculation (PI), respectively. Despite the fact that the pigs were continuously reinfected, dramatic reductions in numbers of liver lesions (white spots) and migrating lung larvae were observed as a function of time. However, even at the end of the study, a few larvae were able to complete migration, but these larvae seemed unable to mature in the small intestine. Thus, the adult worm population seemed to consist of worms from the first part of the exposure period. The noticeable decrease in number of white spots suggests that the level of exposure is not reflected in the number of white spots in the late phase of a continuous infection. The serum levels of A. suum L3-specific IgG1 and IgA were significantly elevated by week 4 PI, after which the antibody levels declined. The population dynamics and parasite regulating mechanisms are discussed for A. suum in pigs as well as for the closely related species A. lumbricoides in humans.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yuan Shi; Wu Jinhui; Gao Jinyue; Pan Chunliu
2002-01-01
We use the relative phase of two coherent fields for the control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system. The population inversion and gain with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer are shown as the relative phase is varied. We support our results by numerical calculation and analytical explanation
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Spatial and temporal dynamics of the genetic organization of small mammal populations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, M.H.; Manlove, M.N.; Joule, J.
1978-01-01
A functional population is a group of organisms and their offspring that contributes to a common gene pool within a certain area and time period. It is also the unit of evolution and should be viewed both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Selection, drift, dispersal, and mutation can alter the composition of populations. Spatial heterogeneity in allele frequencies argues for a conceptual model that has a series of relatively small populations semi-isolated from one another. Because of the relatively high levels of genetic variability characteristic of most mammalian species, significant amounts of gene flow between these spatially subdivided populations must occur when longer time periods are considered. Fluctuations in the genetic structure of populations seem to be important in altering the fitness of the individuals within the populations. The interaction of populations through gene flow is important in changing the levels of intrapopulational genetic variability. Populations can be characterized as existing on a continuum from relatively stable to unstable numbers and by other associated changes in their characteristics. Temporal changes in allele frequency occur in a variety of mammals. Conceptually, a species can be viewed as a series of dynamic populations that vary in numbers and quality in both a spatial and temporal context even over short distances and time periods. Short term changes in the quality of individuals in a population can be important in altering the short term dynamics of a population
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Stroop Color-Word Interference Test: Normative data for Spanish-speaking pediatric population.
Rivera, D; Morlett-Paredes, A; Peñalver Guia, A I; Irías Escher, M J; Soto-Añari, M; Aguayo Arelis, A; Rute-Pérez, S; Rodríguez-Lorenzana, A; Rodríguez-Agudelo, Y; Albaladejo-Blázquez, N; García de la Cadena, C; Ibáñez-Alfonso, J A; Rodriguez-Irizarry, W; García-Guerrero, C E; Delgado-Mejía, I D; Padilla-López, A; Vergara-Moragues, E; Barrios Nevado, M D; Saracostti Schwartzman, M; Arango-Lasprilla, J C
2017-01-01
To generate normative data for the Stroop Word-Color Interference test in Spanish-speaking pediatric populations. The sample consisted of 4,373 healthy children from nine countries in Latin America (Chile, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Puerto Rico) and Spain. Each participant was administered the Stroop Word-Color Interference test as part of a larger neuropsychological battery. The Stroop Word, Stroop Color, Stroop Word-Color, and Stroop Interference scores were normed using multiple linear regressions and standard deviations of residual values. Age, age2, sex, and mean level of parental education (MLPE) were included as predictors in the analyses. The final multiple linear regression models showed main effects for age on all scores, except on Stroop Interference for Guatemala, such that scores increased linearly as a function of age. Age2 affected Stroop Word scores for all countries, Stroop Color scores for Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Spain; Stroop Word-Color scores for Ecuador, Mexico, and Paraguay; and Stroop Interference scores for Cuba, Guatemala, and Spain. MLPE affected Stroop Word scores for Chile, Mexico, and Puerto Rico; Stroop Color scores for Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Spain; Stroop Word-Color scores for Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, Puerto Rico and Spain; and Stroop-Interference scores for Ecuador, Mexico, and Spain. Sex affected Stroop Word scores for Spain, Stroop Color scores for Mexico, and Stroop Interference for Honduras. This is the largest Spanish-speaking pediatric normative study in the world, and it will allow neuropsychologists from these countries to have a more accurate approach to interpret the Stroop Word-Color Interference test in pediatric populations.
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Maternal Household Decision-Making Autonomy and Adolescent Education in Honduras.
Hendrick, C Emily; Marteleto, Leticia
2017-06-01
Maternal decision-making autonomy has been linked to positive outcomes for children's health and well-being early in life in low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. However, there is a dearth of research examining if and how maternal autonomy continues to influence children's outcomes into adolescence and whether it impacts other domains of children's lives beyond health, such as their education. The goal of this study was to determine whether high maternal decision-making was associated with school enrollment for secondary school-aged youth in Honduras. Further, we aimed to assess whether the relationships between maternal autonomy and school enrollment varied by adolescents' environmental contexts and individual characteristics such as gender. Our analytical sample included 6,579 adolescents ages 12-16 living with their mothers from the Honduran Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2011-12. We used stepwise logistic regression models to investigate the association between maternal household decision-making autonomy and adolescents' school enrollment. Our findings suggest that adolescents, especially girls, benefit from their mothers' high decision-making autonomy. Findings suggest that maternal decision-making autonomy promotes adolescents' school enrollment above and beyond other maternal, household, and regional influences.
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Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
ONOS
2010-01-25
Jan 25, 2010 ... Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of ... 25.78, 25.78, 86.26, 24.73, 68.0, 26.8 and 26.8 kDa proteins and equivalent to Cyt, Cry5 and Cry2 toxins ..... Molecular weight (kDa) of protein fractions of the BT isolates.
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Population dynamics of the invasive fish, Gambusia affinis , in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Repeated-measures ANOVA analyses on the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of G. affinis between sampling events and dams revealed significant differences in population dynamics among dams, although an overall trend of rapid increase followed by plateau in summer, with a rapid decline in winter was seen in most dams.
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Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics
Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.
2006-01-01
The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field
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Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.
2016-01-01
The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.
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Exploiting Fast-Variables to Understand Population Dynamics and Evolution
Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.
2017-11-01
We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are caused by individual events while the dynamics are described in terms of the time-evolution of a probability density function. In general, the application of the diffusion approximation still leaves a description that is quite complex. However, in many biological applications one or more of the processes happen slowly relative to the system's other processes, and the dynamics can be approximated as occurring within a slow low-dimensional subspace. We review these time-scale separation arguments and analyse the more simple stochastic dynamics that result in a number of cases. We stress that it is important to retain the demographic noise derived in this way, and emphasise this point by showing that it can alter the direction of selection compared to the prediction made from an analysis of the corresponding deterministic model.
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Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.
2011-01-01
Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in
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Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.
2011-01-01
Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in
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Conwill, Arolyn; Yurtsev, Eugene; Gore, Jeff
2014-03-01
A common mechanism of antibiotic resistance in bacteria involves the production of an enzyme that inactivates the antibiotic. By inactivating the antibiotic, resistant cells can protect other cells in the population that would otherwise be sensitive to the drug. In a multidrug environment, an obligatory mutualism arises because populations of different strains rely on each other to breakdown antibiotics in the environment. Here, we experimentally track the population dynamics of two E. coli strains in the presence of two different antibiotics: ampicillin and chloramphenicol. Together the strains are able to grow in antibiotic concentrations that inhibit growth of either one of the strains alone. Although mutualisms are often thought to stabilize population dynamics, we observe strong oscillatory dynamics even when there is long-term coexistence between the two strains. We expect that our results will provide insight into the evolution of antibiotic resistance and, more generally, the evolutionary origin of phenotypic diversity, cooperation, and ecological stability.
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Weed populations and crop rotations: exploring dynamics of a structured periodic system
Mertens, S.K.; Bosch, F. van den; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.
2002-01-01
The periodic growing of a certain set of crops in a prescribed order, called a crop rotation, is considered to be an important tool for managing weed populations. Nevertheless, the effects of crop rotations on weed population dynamics are not well understood. Explanations for rotation effects on
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Zhao, Yang; Jia, Xin; Lee, Harry F; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin
2017-01-01
It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yang Zhao
Full Text Available It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911. Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oakley, Stewart M., E-mail: soakley@csuchico.edu [Department of Civil Engineering, Chico State University, California State University, Chico, CA 95929 (United States); Jimenez, Ramon, E-mail: rjimenez1958@yahoo.com [Public Works, Municipality of Villanueva, Cortes (Honduras)
2012-12-15
Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Open dumping is the most common form of waste disposal in neglected small cities. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Semi-mechanized landfills can be a sustainable option for small cities. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present the theory of design and operation of semi-mechanized landfills. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Villanueva, Honduras has operated its semi-mechanized landfill for 15 years. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The cost of operation is US$4.60/ton with a land requirement of 0.2m{sup 2}/person-year. - Abstract: Open dumping is the most common practice for the disposal of urban solid wastes in the least developed regions of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Sanitary landfill design and operation has traditionally focused on large cities, but cities with fewer than 50,000 in population can comprise from 6% to 45% of a given country's total population. These thousands of small cities cannot afford to operate a sanitary landfill in the way it is proposed for large cities, where heavy equipment is used to spread and compact the waste in daily cells, and then to excavate, transport and apply daily cover, and leachate is managed with collection and treatment systems. This paper presents an alternative approach for small cities, known as the semi-mechanized trench method, which was developed in Villanueva, Honduras. In the semi-mechanized trench method a hydraulic excavator is used for 1-3 days to dig a trench that will last at least a month before it is filled with waste. Trucks can easily unload their wastes into the trench, and the wastes compact naturally due to semi-aerobic biodegradation, after which the trenches are refilled and covered. The exposed surface area is minimal since only the top surface of the wastes is exposed, the remainder being covered by the sides and bottom of the trench. The surplus material from trench excavation can be valorized for use as engineering fill onsite or off. The landfill in
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oakley, Stewart M.; Jimenez, Ramón
2012-01-01
Highlights: ► Open dumping is the most common form of waste disposal in neglected small cities. ► Semi-mechanized landfills can be a sustainable option for small cities. ► We present the theory of design and operation of semi-mechanized landfills. ► Villanueva, Honduras has operated its semi-mechanized landfill for 15 years. ► The cost of operation is US$4.60/ton with a land requirement of 0.2m 2 /person-year. - Abstract: Open dumping is the most common practice for the disposal of urban solid wastes in the least developed regions of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Sanitary landfill design and operation has traditionally focused on large cities, but cities with fewer than 50,000 in population can comprise from 6% to 45% of a given country’s total population. These thousands of small cities cannot afford to operate a sanitary landfill in the way it is proposed for large cities, where heavy equipment is used to spread and compact the waste in daily cells, and then to excavate, transport and apply daily cover, and leachate is managed with collection and treatment systems. This paper presents an alternative approach for small cities, known as the semi-mechanized trench method, which was developed in Villanueva, Honduras. In the semi-mechanized trench method a hydraulic excavator is used for 1–3 days to dig a trench that will last at least a month before it is filled with waste. Trucks can easily unload their wastes into the trench, and the wastes compact naturally due to semi-aerobic biodegradation, after which the trenches are refilled and covered. The exposed surface area is minimal since only the top surface of the wastes is exposed, the remainder being covered by the sides and bottom of the trench. The surplus material from trench excavation can be valorized for use as engineering fill onsite or off. The landfill in Villanueva has operated for 15 years, using a total land area of approximately 11 ha for a population that grew from 23,000 to 48
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Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.
Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng
2018-01-01
In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.
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Distribution and population dynamics of Rhizobium sp. introduced into soil
Postma, J.
1989-01-01
In this thesis the population dynamics of bacteria introduced into soil was studied. In the introduction, the existence of microhabitats favourable for the survival of indigenous bacteria is discussed. Knowledge about the distribution of introduced bacteria over
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Vitamin A deficiency and anemia among children 12-71 months old in Honduras
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Penelope Nestel
1999-07-01
Full Text Available Vitamin A deficiency (VAD and iron deficiency anemia (IDA have been recognized as public health problems in Honduras for over 30 years. This paper, based on the 1996 National Micro nutrient Survey on 1 678 children 1271 months of age, presents the results for vitamin A status and anemia prevalence, as well as the level of vitamin A in sugar at the household level. The results showed that 14% of the children were subclinically vitamin A deficient (plasma retinol < 20 µg/dL and 32% were at risk of VAD (plasma retinol 2030 µg/dL. These data indicate that VAD is a moderate public health problem in Honduras. Logistic regression analysis showed that children 1223 months old living in areas other than the rural south of the country were at greatest risk of subclinical VAD. Infection, indicated by an elevated alpha-1-acid-glycoprotein level, increased the risk of subclinical VAD more than three-fold. Children from households that obtained water from a river, stream, or lake were at twice the risk of subclinical VAD compared with other children. That same doubled risk was found for children from a household with an outside toilet. VAD can be controlled by fortifying sugar. Retinol levels in sugar at the household level were about 50% of those mandated by Honduran law. There appears to be significant leakage of unfortified sugar into the market. This is particularly true in the rural north, where 33% of samples contained no retinol. Overall, 30% of children were anemic (Hb < 11 g/dL. Logistic regression analysis showed that children whose fathers lived with them but who had not attended at least grade 4 of primary school were at 33% greater risk of being anemic. Infection and being underweight increased the risk of being anemic by 51% and 21%, respectively. Many of the anemic children had not been given iron supplements, suggesting health care providers may not be aware that anemia is widespread among young children and/or know how to diagnose it.
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Cellular-automata model of the dwarf shrubs populations and communities dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. S. Komarov
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The probabilistic cellular-automata model of development and long-time dynamics of dwarf shrub populations and communities is developed. It is based on the concept of discrete description of the plant ontogenesis and joint model approaches in terms of probabilistic cellular automata and L-systems by Lindenmayer. Short representation of the basic model allows evaluation of the approach and software implementation. The main variables of the model are a number of partial bushes in clones or area projective cover. The model allows us to investigate the conditions of self-maintenance and sustainability population under different environmental conditions (inaccessibility of the territory for settlement, mosaic moisture conditions of soil and wealth. The model provides a forecast of the total biomass dynamics shrubs and their fractions (stems, leaves, roots, fine roots, fruits on the basis of the data obtained in the discrete description of ontogenesis and further information on the productivity of the plant fractions. The inclusion of the joint dynamics of biomass of shrubs and soil in EFIMOD models cycle of carbon and nitrogen to evaluate the role of shrubs in these circulations, especially at high impact, such as forest fires and clear cutting, allow forecasting of the dynamics of populations and ecosystem functions of shrubs (regulation of biogeochemical cycles maintaining biodiversity, participation in the creation of non-wood products with changing climatic conditions and strong damaging effects (logging, fires; and application of the models developed to investigate the stability and productivity of shrubs and their participation in the cycle of carbon and nitrogen in different climatic and edaphic conditions.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrés León Araya
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Con base en el testimonio de vida de una familia campesina, este artículo explora la contrarreforma agraria, entendida como un proceso de acumulación primitiva, que se llevó a cabo a principios de los noventa en Honduras. Más específicamente, se busca recuperar la vivencia compartida de muchas mujeres campesinas a través de una perspectiva etnográfica y de género que proporcione ciertas luces sobre cómo opera el despojo, en tanto proceso permanente y constitutivo del capitalismo.
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Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.
2013-01-01
Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived
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Situación nutricional en el curso de vida de la comunidad de ‘El Jicarito’ en Honduras
Hernández, A.; Di Iorio, A.B.
2017-01-01
Introducción: La información sobre la situación nutricional en Honduras de la década de los 60 y la encuesta de consumo de los 70, contribuyeron a la construcción de programas y políticas; son pocos los estudios realizados de actualización. Material y método: Compendio de seis proyectos entre 2013 – 2016 y primer estudio descriptivo transversal (n=455, ambos sexos) sobre la situación nutricional (consumo alimentario, actividad física, antropometría, indicadores clínicos) en el curso de vida e...
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Ford, R. E.
2006-12-01
Between 2004 and 2006 the Loma Linda University ESSE21 Mesoamerican Project (Earth System Science Education for the 21st Century) collaborated with a series of academic, NGO (nongovernmental) and government agencies, including a USAID (United States Agency for International Development) integrated environmental resource management project to: a) build the human and technical capacity of local partners in the use of geospatial technologies, e.g. GIS, GPS, Remote Sensing, b) improve their capacity to apply these tools to biodiversity, health, sustainability, protected-area management, and other NRM (Natural Resource Management) decision-making needs and problems, and c) establish long term institutional relationships for teacher/student exchange, including development of joint curricula and research projects focused on health geoinformatics as well as sustainable development. Much of this has contributed toward a new "geotourism" effort adopted by Honduras called the SAVE Honduras strategy (Scientific, Academic, Volunteer, Educational). A central element of this initiative is to increase joint collaborative research and learning together by students and faculty at US universities working with Honduran institutions (private and public). See SAVE Strategy page = http://www.fundacionsave.com/home_eng.html In the presentation we describe our experience over the last three years collaborating with key partners such as the Central American Observatory of Suyapa based at the UNAH (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras) which has opened a new GIS/Remote Sensing Laboratory. We also collaborated closely with CURLA (Centro Universitario Regional del Litoral Atlántico) located near La Ceiba--a land grant-type institution- -to support outreach and extension activities by students and staff to local-level NGOs and community groups dealing with conservation, hazards mitigation, biodiversity, fisheries and related problems. We have also participated in joint "informal
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Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future
Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.
2014-10-01
We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.
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Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries
Wei-Bin Zhang
2016-01-01
This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade ar...
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Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics
Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William
2012-02-01
Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.
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Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics
Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.
2018-03-01
Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gustavo Ávila Montes
1998-03-01
December 1991 and in March 1993 a survey was conducted in 17 rural communities located in Central Honduras. The communities belonged to two areas where Chagas' disease is endemic. In one of them, disease control activities had been conducted. A total of 849 adults, one in each of an equal number of households, was interviewed. The objective of the survey was to investigate and compare in both locations knowledge about Chagas' disease and its routes of transmission, measures aimed at avoiding the presence of triatomines within households, beliefs surrounding the vector and its control, and the population's sources of information about the disease. A 23-item questionnaire was tested and precoded. Almost 100% of the subjects who were surveyed were able to identify the vector and to describe its habits, but only 30,1% knew that Triatoma is the vector for the disease and only about 6% associated it with a chronic heart condition. Around 47,9% of survey subjects indicated that eliminating triatomines from households is a personal responsibility, although 78% identified as the control measure the institutional application of insecticides. Personal contact between a health worker and community members was the chief source of information for those who mentioned having heard of Chagas' disease (41,0%. These results suggest that health education should be included as a component in the planification of control programs. The role played by triatomines in disease transmission should be emphasized, as well as the importance of carrying out household improvements, with community participation, as an effective and sustainable measure. To achieve greater impact, this component should be developed through interpersonal communication channels.
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Analysis of Population Diversity of Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qingjian Ni
2014-01-01
Full Text Available In evolutionary algorithm, population diversity is an important factor for solving performance. In this paper, combined with some population diversity analysis methods in other evolutionary algorithms, three indicators are introduced to be measures of population diversity in PSO algorithms, which are standard deviation of population fitness values, population entropy, and Manhattan norm of standard deviation in population positions. The three measures are used to analyze the population diversity in a relatively new PSO variant—Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization (DPPSO. The results show that the three measure methods can fully reflect the evolution of population diversity in DPPSO algorithms from different angles, and we also discuss the impact of population diversity on the DPPSO variants. The relevant conclusions of the population diversity on DPPSO can be used to analyze, design, and improve the DPPSO algorithms, thus improving optimization performance, which could also be beneficial to understand the working mechanism of DPPSO theoretically.
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Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stepanov, Serguei [Optics Department, CICESE, km.107 carr. Tijuana-Ensenada, Ensenada, 22860, BC (Mexico)], E-mail: steps@cicese.mx
2008-11-21
Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.
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Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stepanov, Serguei
2008-01-01
Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.
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Population Dynamics of the Mediterranean Fruit Fly in Montenegro
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sanja Radonjić
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Population dynamics of the Mediterranean fruit fly was studied along Montenegro seacoast. Tephri traps baited with 3 component female-biased attractants were used in 11 different localities to monitor the fruit fly population in commercial citrus orchards, mixed-fruit orchards, and in backyards. From 2008–2010, the earliest captures were recorded no earlier than July. In 2011, the first adult fly was detected in mid-June. Low captures rates were recorded in July and August (below 0.5 flies per trap per day; FTD and peaked from mid-September to the end of October of each year. Our results indicate fluctuation of fly per trap per day depending on dates of inspection and locality, with significant differences in the adult population density. A maximum population was always reached in the area of Budva-Herceg Novi with an FTD of 66.5, 89.5, 71.63, and 24.64 (from 2008–2011 respectively. Fly activity lasts from mid-June/early-July to end December, with distinct seasonal variation in the population.
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Sensitivity Analysis for Assessing Effects of Tree Population Dynamics on Soil Bioturbation
Martin, Y. E.; Johnson, E. A.
2012-12-01
Bioturbation due to tree root throw is thought to be an important process in soil production and soil mixing. Despite progress in our understanding of root throw processes, the tree population dynamics affecting the occurrence and timing of root throw events remain much less well explained. Unfortunately, research about forest dynamics is not always undertaken from the perspective of those interested in tree death, tree topple and associated root throw. As a result, the necessary field data about tree population dynamics is often unavailable for many locations. The acquisition of such data would allow for improved interpretation of root throw observations and for incorporation within numerical models of tree root throw occurrence. The present study uses our earlier tree population dynamics model calibrated for subalpine forests in the Canadian Rockies to test the sensitivity of forest parameters within the model that determine tree death, tree topple, root throw and soil bioturbation. Crown wildfire disturbance is the primary driver of tree population dynamics, with wind throw being mainly of local importance. The recruitment and mortality of trees during multiple generations of forest determine the number of live trees on the landscape at any given time. Tree death may occur due to competition/thinning of trees between wildfire events or as a result of the wildfire itself. Unless trees die due to sudden wind throw events (as mentioned above, this is only of local significance in our study area), they remain standing for some time period after tree death and before tree topple; these trees are referred to as standing dead trees. The duration of this time window and several other factors influence if a tree breaks at its base or upheaves a relatively intact root plate with attached sediment. Our field research has also suggested that a minimum dbh is required before a root plate is large enough to upheave notable amounts of sediment. Modelling results in this study
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Scaling of the mean and variance of population dynamics under fluctuating regimes.
Pertoldi, Cino; Faurby, S; Reed, D H; Knape, J; Björklund, M; Lundberg, P; Kaitala, V; Loeschcke, V; Bach, L A
2014-12-01
Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on the interactions between exogenous (biotic and abiotic) and endogenous (e.g., demographic and genetic) drivers of population dynamics. Recent work focuses on the autocorrelation structure of environmental perturbations and its effects on the persistence of populations. Accurate estimation of extinction times and especially determination of the mechanisms affecting extinction times is important for biodiversity conservation. Here we examine the interaction between environmental fluctuations and the scaling effect of the mean population size with its variance. We investigate how interactions between environmental and demographic stochasticity can affect the mean time to extinction, change optimal patch size dynamics, and how it can alter the often-assumed linear relationship between the census size and the effective population size. The importance of the correlation between environmental and demographic variation depends on the relative importance of the two types of variation. We found the correlation to be important when the two types of variation were approximately equal; however, the importance of the correlation diminishes as one source of variation dominates. The implications of these findings are discussed from a conservation and eco-evolutionary point of view.
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[Population dynamics of oligosporous actinomycetes in Chernozem soil].
Zenova, G M; Mikhaĭlova, N V; Zviagintsev, D G
2000-01-01
Investigation of the dynamics of an oligosporous actinomycete population in chernozem soil in the course of succession induced by soil wetting allowed us to reveal the time intervals and conditions optimal for the isolation of particular oligosporous actinomycetes. Saccharopolysporas and microbisporas proved to be best isolated in the early and late stages of succession, whereas actinomycetes of the subgroup Actinomadura and saccharomonosporas could be best isolated in the early and intermediate stages of succession.
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Nutritional quality of foods marketed to children in Honduras.
Gunderson, Matthew D; Clements, Dennis; Benjamin Neelon, Sara E
2014-02-01
Evidence suggests that exposure to advertising of unhealthy foods may contribute to increased rates of obesity in children. This study examined the extent to which television stations marketed unhealthy foods to children during after-school programming aired over one week in La Ceiba, Honduras. Content analysis was performed on four television stations, including one broadcast station and three cable networks. Eighty hours of programming were recorded and analyzed. Advertised products were categorized as food or non-food items, with food items further classified as healthy or unhealthy. Advertisements were coded as those aimed at children, adults, or both, and chi-square tests were used to compare the proportion of unhealthy advertisements by target audience. A total of 2271 advertisements aired during the observation period, with 1120 marketing products (49.3%). Of those, 397 (35.4%) promoted foods-30.2% were for healthy foods and 69.8% for unhealthy foods. The unhealthy foods were all advertised on cable networks and not the broadcast station. Children appeared to be targeted more than adults in advertisements for unhealthy foods (92.1%, p<0.001). Cable television programming during after-school hours advertised primarily unhealthy foods. Exposure to these advertisements may promote consumption of unhealthy foods by children, increasing their risk of obesity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J
2013-05-01
An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.
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Lysien I. Zambrano; Manuel Sierra; Bredy Lara; Iván Rodríguez-Nuñez; Marco T. Medina; Carlos Lozada-Riascos; Alfonso Rodríguez-Morales
2017-01-01
Como parte del control y el riesgo para el dengue y chikungunya se trabaja en conjunto para analizar las implicaciones epidemiológicas de estas enfermedades a una escala regional y nacional. El objetivo fue estimar las tasas de incidencia de dengue y chikungunya en 2015 para Honduras y sus departamentos y desarrollar mapas epidemiológicos basados en SIG. Se realizó un estudio observacional retrospectivo tomando casos de dengue y chikungunya confirmados por clínica y laboratorio del sistema de...
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About a dynamic model of interaction of insect population with food plant
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L.V. Nedorezov
2011-12-01
Full Text Available In present paper there is the consideration of mathematical model of food plant (resource - consumer (insect population - pathogen system dynamics which is constructed as a system of ordinary differential equations. The dynamic regimes of model are analyzed and, in particular, with the help of numerical methods it is shown that trigger regimes (regimes with two stable attractors can be realized in model under very simple assumptions about ecological and intra-population processes functioning. Within the framework of model it was assumed that the rate of food flow into the system is constant and functioning of intra-population selfregulative mechanisms can be described by Verhulst model. As it was found, trigger regimes are different with respect to their properties: in particular, in model the trigger regimes with one of stable stationary points on the coordinate plane can be realized (it corresponds to the situation when sick individuals in population are absent and their appearance in small volume leads to their asymptotic elimination; also the regimes with several nonzero stationary states and stable periodic fluctuations were found.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Bayet, Estelle; Bureau, Martin; Davies, Roger L.; Alatalo, Katherine; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Crocker, Alison F.; Davis, Timothy A.; De Zeeuw, P. T.; Emsellem, Eric; Kuntschner, Harald; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Morganti, Raffaella; Oosterloo, Tom; Naab, Thorsten
2014-01-01
We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS 3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization α dyn ≡ (M/L) stars /(M/L) Salp and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of α dyn at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak α dyn -[α/Fe] and α dyn –Age correlations and no significant α dyn –[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis
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McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.
2014-09-01
We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡ (M/L)stars/(M/L)Salp and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of αdyn at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak αdyn-[α/Fe] and αdyn -Age correlations and no significant αdyn -[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis.
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Phenotypic equilibrium as probabilistic convergence in multi-phenotype cell population dynamics.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Da-Quan Jiang
Full Text Available We consider the cell population dynamics with n different phenotypes. Both the Markovian branching process model (stochastic model and the ordinary differential equation (ODE system model (deterministic model are presented, and exploited to investigate the dynamics of the phenotypic proportions. We will prove that in both models, these proportions will tend to constants regardless of initial population states ("phenotypic equilibrium" under weak conditions, which explains the experimental phenomenon in Gupta et al.'s paper. We also prove that Gupta et al.'s explanation is the ODE model under a special assumption. As an application, we will give sufficient and necessary conditions under which the proportion of one phenotype tends to 0 (die out or 1 (dominate. We also extend our results to non-Markovian cases.
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Gonzales-González, Victoria Alejandra; Díaz-Flores, Adolfo Martín; Fernández-Zelaya, Karla Zobeyda; Rivera-Reyes, María Félix
2017-01-01
Allergic diseases are a public health problem; estimates indicate that between 30% and 40% of the world population is affected by some allergy. Knowing the prevalence of allergen sensitization allows for adequate diagnoses and treatments to be offered. In Honduras there are no studies available in pediatric patients. The purpose of this research was to identify the most common types of sensitization in children and their correlation with the most common allergic diseases in patients on immunotherapy at the Maria Hospital of Pediatric Specialties. Cross-sectional, descriptive, retrospective study in which medical records and databases of patients on allergic immunotherapy at the Maria Hospital of Pediatric Specialties were reviewed between January 2015 and June 2016. 215 children on immunotherapy were assessed; ages ranged from 3 to 18 years, with a mean of 10.8 years. Aeroallergen-positive epicutaneous tests were identified in 73.02%. The most common aeroallergens were Dermatophagoides farinae and Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus mix (96.74%), American cockroach 37.21%, and Aspergillus fumigatus and Homodenderum cladosporioides (16.28%). House dust mites and American cockroach were the most common causes of sensitization in patients on immunotherapy.
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Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska
Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Fondell, Thomas F.; Morse, Julie A.
2006-01-01
Populations of greater scaup (Aythya marila) remained relatively stable during a period when populations of lesser scaup (A. affinis) have declined from historic levels. To assist in describing these differences in population trends, from 1991 through 2000, we studied the survival, nesting ecology, and productivity of greater scaup on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, to develop a model of population dynamics. We located nests, radio-marked females for renesting studies, estimated duckling survival, and leg-banded females to examine nest site fidelity and annual survival.
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Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics
Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell
2017-01-01
There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.
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Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony
Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.
2011-01-01
We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.
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Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti
Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir
2015-10-01
Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.
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Emergence of cooperation in phenotypically heterogeneous populations: a replicator dynamics analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barreira da Silva Rocha, A; Escobedo, R; Laruelle, A
2015-01-01
The emergence of cooperation is analyzed in heterogeneous populations where two kinds of individuals exist according to their phenotypic appearance. Phenotype recognition is assumed for all individuals: individuals are able to identify the type of every other individual, but fail to recognize their own type. Individuals thus behave under partial information conditions. The interactions between individuals are described by the snowdrift game, where individuals can either cooperate or defect. The evolution of such populations is studied in the framework of evolutionary game theory by means of the replicator dynamics. Overlapping generations are considered, so the replicator equations are formulated in discrete-time form. The stability analysis of the dynamical system is carried out and a detailed description of the behavior of trajectories starting from the interior of the state-space is given. We find that the four monomorphic states are unstable and that a polymorphic state exists which is a global attractor for non-degenerate initial states of the population. The result for the discrete-time replicator coincides with the one of the continuous case. (paper)
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Dynamics of a population of oscillatory and excitable elements.
O'Keeffe, Kevin P; Strogatz, Steven H
2016-06-01
We analyze a variant of a model proposed by Kuramoto, Shinomoto, and Sakaguchi for a large population of coupled oscillatory and excitable elements. Using the Ott-Antonsen ansatz, we reduce the behavior of the population to a two-dimensional dynamical system with three parameters. We present the stability diagram and calculate several of its bifurcation curves analytically, for both excitatory and inhibitory coupling. Our main result is that when the coupling function is broad, the system can display bistability between steady states of constant high and low activity, whereas when the coupling function is narrow and inhibitory, one of the states in the bistable regime can show persistent pulsations in activity.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; Zhang, J.-C.
2017-01-01
Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. For non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.
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Scaling up population dynamic processes in a ladybird–aphid
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Houdková, Kateřina; Kindlmann, Pavel
2006-01-01
Roč. 48, - (2006), s. 323-332 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GEDIV/06/E013; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06073; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA6087301; GA ČR(CZ) GD206/03/H034 Keywords : Aphids * Egg window * Ladybirds * Metapopulation * Model * Population dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.534, year: 2006
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Smallegange, I.M.; van der Meer, J.; Fiedler, W.
2011-01-01
Unravelling the contributions of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining species population dynamics is a challenge, especially if the two factors interact. One approach is to apply stochastic population models to long-term data, yet few studies have included interactions
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Studies on population dynamic of diamondback moth in the field
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Malakrong, A.; Limohpasmanee, W.; Keawchoung, P.; Kodcharint, P.
1994-01-01
The population dynamic of diamondback moth larva in the field was studied at Khao Khor High-land Agricultural Research Station during August-October 1993 and February-April 1994. The distribution patterns of diamondback moth larva was clumped when population was low and would change to be random when population was high. The maximun and minimum number of diamondback moth in the field were 71,203 and 2,732 larva/rai during March and September. Temperature, rainfall and age of cabbage were slightly relative with number of larva (r=-0.2891, p=0.30; r=-0.2816, p=0.31 and r=0.2931, p=0.29 respectively) but relative humidity has no effect on number of larva
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Linking animal population dynamics to alterations in foraging behaviour
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard; Tougaard, Jakob
Background/Question/Methods The survival of animal populations is strongly influenced by the individuals’ ability to forage efficiently, yet there are few studies of how populations respond when disturbances cause animals to deviate from their natural foraging behavior. Animals that respond...... that are increasingly exposed to noise from ships, wind turbines, etc. In the present study we investigate how the dynamics of the harbor porpoise population (Phocoena phocoena) in the inner Danish waters is influenced by disturbances using an agent- based simulation model. In the model animal movement, and hence...... the animals’ ability to forage efficiently and to sustain their energy intake, is influenced by noise emitted from wind turbines and ships. The energy levels in turn affect their survival. The fine-scale movements of the simulated animals was governed by a spatial memory, which allowed the model to produce...
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Turkey’s Population Dynamics As A Candidate Country For EU Membership
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Harun Uçak
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Literally, it has been accepted that one of the major obstacles to Turkey’s EU membership is in population term. There has not been any enlargement process as large as Turkey’s population as a single state in EU history before. The enlargement in 2004 which includes 10 states involved 74 million people as whole member states while Turkey’s population is 72 million inhabitants in 2007 data which is only lower than Germany’s population in all EU member states. Thus, Turkey's accession would be different from previous enlargements because of the combined impact of high population. This study compares the population dynamics, working conditions, minimum wage rates and main macroeconomic indicators between Turkey and EU member states. Turkey has young generations compared to EU countries. In the comparison of age groups proportion in total population, 0-19 age group %21,9 in EU 27 and %36,5 in Turkey, 20-39 age group is %28 in EU 27 and %34,3 in Turkey, 40-59 age group is %27,9 in EU and %20,9 in Turkey, 60 and above age group is %22,1 in EU and %9,5 in Turkey. Thus, population dynamics of Turkey could make a contribution to offsetting the ageing of EU 27 societies if the membership would occur in the future. However, minimum wage rates in Turkey are lower than many EU member states but generally higher than EU member states located in Central and Eastern Europe. Thus, immigration possibilities from Turkey can be expected to Western European Countries, but not the same direction to Central and Eastern Europe Countries. Furthermore, the process in macroeconomic indicators will be a determinant in immigration expectations while Turkey’s GDP has been grown faster than EU level recently.
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Heat exposure in cities: combining the dynamics of temperature and population
Hu, L.; Wilhelmi, O.; Uejio, C. K.
2017-12-01
Assessment of human exposure to extreme heat requires the distributions of temperature and population. However, both variables are dynamic, thus presenting many challenges in capturing temperature and population patterns spatially and over time in an urban context. This study aims to improve the understanding of spatiotemporal patterns of urban population exposure to heat, taking Chicago, USA as an example. We estimate the hourly, geographically variable, population distribution considering commute of workers and students in a regular weekday and analyze the diurnal air temperature patterns during different meteorological conditions from satellite observations. The results show a relatively larger temperature increase in less urbanized areas during extreme heat events (EHEs), resulting in a spatially homogeneous temperature distribution over Chicago Metropolitan area. A lake cooling effect is weaker during EHEs. Population dynamics due to daily commute determine higher population density in more urbanized areas during daytime. The city-wide analysis reveals that the exposure is more sensitive to the nighttime temperature increases, and EHEs enhance this sensitivity. The high exposure hotspots are identified at the northwest Chicago, Cicero and Oak Park areas, where the influence from Lake Michigan is weakened, while the spatial extent of high outdoor exposure areas varies diurnally. This study's findings have potential to better inform general heat mitigation strategies during hot summer months and facilitate emergency response during EHEs. Availability of remotely-sensed temperature observations as well as the workers and students commute-adjusted population data allows for the adoption of this study's methodology in other major metropolitan areas. A better understanding of space-time patterns of urban population's exposure to heat will further enable local decision makers to mitigate extreme heat health risks and develop more targeted heat preparedness and
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State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics.
Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C
2014-10-01
A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.
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Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control
Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.
2017-10-01
A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.
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The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan
2016-01-01
Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models...... to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses...
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Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply
Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas
2009-09-01
We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Meyer, D.E.
1999-01-01
The objective of this study was to detect the presence of persistent pesticides in water, sediment and biological samples taken from aquatic environments in Honduras during the period 1995-98. Additionally, the LC 50 for 2 fungicides and 2 insecticides on post-larval Penaeus vannamei was determined in static water bioassays. A total of 80 water samples, 16 sediment samples and 7 biological samples (fish muscle tissue) were analyzed for detection of organochlorine and organophosphate pesticide residues. The results of sample analyses indicate a widespread contamination of Honduran continental and coastal waters with organochlorine pesticides. Most detections were of low ( 50 values and were therefore found to be much more toxic to the post-larval shrimp than the fungicides tridemorph and propiconazole. (author)
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Population dynamics of Trichuris suis in trickle-infected pigs.
Nejsum, P; Thamsborg, S M; Petersen, H H; Kringel, H; Fredholm, M; Roepstorff, A
2009-05-01
The population dynamics of Trichuris suis in pigs was studied during long-term experimental infections. Twenty-three 10-week-old pigs were inoculated with 5 T. suis eggs/kg/day. Seven, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 post-start of infection (p.i.), respectively. The median numbers of worms in the colon were 538 (min-max: 277-618), 332 (14-1140) and 0 (0-4) at 4, 8, and 14 weeks p.i. respectively, suggesting an increased aggregation of the worms with time and acquisition of nearly sterile immunity. The serum levels of T. suis specific antibodies (IgG1, IgG2 and IgA) peaked at week 8 p.i. By week 14 p.i. the IgG2 and IgA antibody levels remained significantly elevated above the level of week 0. The population dynamics of T. suis trickle infections in pigs is discussed with focus on interpretation of diagnostic and epidemiological data of pigs, the use of pigs as a model for human Trichuris trichiura infections and the novel approach of using T. suis eggs in the treatment of patients with inflammatory bowel disease.
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Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady
2016-08-01
As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady
2016-01-01
As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations. (letter)
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Population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii in cloud forest
Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana
2016-02-01
Epiphytes are a major component of tropical montane cloud forests. Over-exploitation and forest loss and degradation affect remnant populations. In this study, we analysed the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii over a 2-y period in a tropical montane cloud forest fragment in southern Mexico. Matrix analysis revealed that the T. butzii population is likely to be stable at the study site. On average the λ value did not differ significantly from unity: λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.978 (0.936-1.001). λ was highly influenced by stasis, to a lesser extent by growth and only slightly by fecundity. Overall, adult plant stasis and phalanx growth habit played a fundamental role in population maintenance. T. butzii tolerance to xeric conditions may contribute to population stability in the studied region.
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Nonlinearities Lead to Qualitative Differences in Population Dynamics of Predator-Prey Systems
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Ameixa, Olga; Messelink, G. J.; Kindlmann, Pavel
2013-01-01
Roč. 8, č. 4 (2013), e62530-e62530 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA ČR(CZ) GEVOL/11/E036 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : nonlinear system * population density * population dynamics * predator * predator prey interaction * qualitative analysis Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.534, year: 2013
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Do farming practices influence population dynamics of rodents?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Massawe, A W; Rwamugira, W; Leirs, Herwig
2007-01-01
A capture-mark-recapture study was conducted in crop fields in Morogoro, Tanzania, to investigate how the population dynamics of multimammate field rats, Mastomys natalensis, was influenced by the commonly practised land preparation methods and cropping systems. Two land preparation methods (trac...... practices. In maize fields in Tanzania, the crop is most susceptible to damage by M. natalensis in the first 2 weeks after planting, and therefore, lower densities of rodents will result into lower crop damage in tractor ploughed fields....
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On the stochastic approach to marine population dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eduardo Ferrandis
2007-03-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to deepen and structure the statistical basis of marine population dynamics. The starting point is the correspondence between the concepts of mortality, survival and lifetime distribution. This is the kernel of the possibilities that survival analysis techniques offer to marine population dynamics. A rigorous definition of survival and mortality based on their properties and their probabilistic versions is briefly presented. Some well established models for lifetime distribution, which generalise the usual simple exponential distribution, might be used with their corresponding survivals and mortalities. A critical review of some published models is also made, including original models proposed in the way opened by Caddy (1991 and Sparholt (1990, which allow for a continuously decreasing natural mortality. Considering these elements, the pure death process dealt with in the literature is used as a theoretical basis for the evolution of a marine cohort. The elaboration of this process is based on Chiang´s study of the probability distribution of the life table (Chiang, 1960 and provides specific structured models for stock evolution as a Markovian process. These models may introduce new ideas in the line of thinking developed by Gudmundsson (1987 and Sampson (1990 in order to model the evolution of a marine cohort by stochastic processes. The suitable approximation of these processes by means of Gaussian processes may allow theoretical and computational multivariate Gaussian analysis to be applied to the probabilistic treatment of fisheries issues. As a consequence, the necessary catch equation appears as a stochastic integral with respect to the mentioned Markovian process of the stock. The solution of this equation is available when the mortalities are proportional, hence the use of the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1959. The assumption of these proportional mortalities leads naturally to the construction of a
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Smith, Annabel L
2018-01-01
Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.
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Dynamic of age structure and the number of population in Ozersk and affecting factors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Panchenko, O.; Rtischeva, M.
2000-01-01
The aim of this work was an evaluation of the dynamics of age structure and population for the city of Ozyorsk, based in connection with creation of the nuclear plant Mayak, the 'first-born' of the Russian atomic industry. The obtained results indicate that since 1950 demographic processes in Ozyorsk were more favorable, in spite of fact that it was in this period workers of Mayak nuclear plant and population as a whole, got comparatively greater radiation doses than in the following years. However, dynamics the number of population has an unfavorable trend to reduce, connected with sharp worsening of social-economic situation in the town as a whole, as a result of the economic reforms in the country. Reduction of the number of population in the town is expressed by the negative natural growth and by reducing migration processes, which resulted in sharp decrease of the general growth of population, and in its stopping in 1998. (authors)
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Spiking, Bursting, and Population Dynamics in a Network of Growth Transform Neurons.
Gangopadhyay, Ahana; Chakrabartty, Shantanu
2017-04-27
This paper investigates the dynamical properties of a network of neurons, each of which implements an asynchronous mapping based on polynomial growth transforms. In the first part of this paper, we present a geometric approach for visualizing the dynamics of the network where each of the neurons traverses a trajectory in a dual optimization space, whereas the network itself traverses a trajectory in an equivalent primal optimization space. We show that as the network learns to solve basic classification tasks, different choices of primal-dual mapping produce unique but interpretable neural dynamics like noise shaping, spiking, and bursting. While the proposed framework is general enough, in this paper, we demonstrate its use for designing support vector machines (SVMs) that exhibit noise-shaping properties similar to those of ΣΔ modulators, and for designing SVMs that learn to encode information using spikes and bursts. It is demonstrated that the emergent switching, spiking, and burst dynamics produced by each neuron encodes its respective margin of separation from a classification hyperplane whose parameters are encoded by the network population dynamics. We believe that the proposed growth transform neuron model and the underlying geometric framework could serve as an important tool to connect well-established machine learning algorithms like SVMs to neuromorphic principles like spiking, bursting, population encoding, and noise shaping.
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Application of homotopy-perturbation method to nonlinear population dynamics models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chowdhury, M.S.H.; Hashim, I.; Abdulaziz, O.
2007-01-01
In this Letter, the homotopy-perturbation method (HPM) is employed to derive approximate series solutions of nonlinear population dynamics models. The nonlinear models considered are the multispecies Lotka-Volterra equations. The accuracy of this method is examined by comparison with the available exact and the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4)
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
McDermid, Richard M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Macquarie University, Sydney NSW 2109 (Australia); Cappellari, Michele; Bayet, Estelle; Bureau, Martin; Davies, Roger L. [Sub-Department of Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Denys Wilkinson Building, Keble Road, Oxford, OX1 3RH (United Kingdom); Alatalo, Katherine [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Blitz, Leo [Department of Astronomy, Campbell Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Bois, Maxime [Observatoire de Paris, LERMA and CNRS, 61 Av. de l' Observatoire, F-75014 Paris (France); Bournaud, Frédéric; Duc, Pierre-Alain [Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/IRFU/SAp- CNRS-Université Paris Diderot, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Crocker, Alison F. [Ritter Astrophysical Observatory, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Davis, Timothy A.; De Zeeuw, P. T.; Emsellem, Eric; Kuntschner, Harald [European Southern Observatory, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Khochfar, Sadegh [Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Edinburgh, EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Krajnović, Davor [Leibniz-Institut für Astrophysik Potsdam (AIP), An der Sternwarte 16, D-14482 Potsdam (Germany); Morganti, Raffaella; Oosterloo, Tom [Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy (ASTRON), Postbus 2, 7990 AA Dwingeloo (Netherlands); Naab, Thorsten, E-mail: richard.mcdermid@mq.edu.au [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, D-85741 Garching (Germany); and others
2014-09-10
We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS{sup 3D} project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization α{sub dyn} ≡ (M/L){sub stars}/(M/L){sub Salp} and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of α{sub dyn} at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak α{sub dyn}-[α/Fe] and α{sub dyn} –Age correlations and no significant α{sub dyn} –[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis.
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Wultsch, Claudia; Caragiulo, Anthony; Dias-Freedman, Isabela; Quigley, Howard; Rabinowitz, Salisa; Amato, George
2016-01-01
Mesoamerican jaguars (Panthera onca) have been extirpated from over 77% of their historic range, inhabiting fragmented landscapes at potentially reduced population sizes. Maintaining and restoring genetic diversity and connectivity across human-altered landscapes has become a major conservation priority; nonetheless large-scale genetic monitoring of natural populations is rare. This is the first regional conservation genetic study of jaguars to primarily use fecal samples collected in the wild across five Mesoamerican countries: Belize, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico. We genotyped 445 jaguar fecal samples and examined patterns of genetic diversity and connectivity among 115 individual jaguars using data from 12 microsatellite loci. Overall, moderate levels of genetic variation were detected (NA = 4.50 ± 1.05, AR = 3.43 ± 0.22, HE = 0.59 ± 0.04), with Mexico having the lowest genetic diversity, followed by Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and Costa Rica. Population-based gene flow measures (FST = 0.09 to 0.15, Dest = 0.09 to 0.21), principal component analysis, and Bayesian clustering applied in a hierarchical framework revealed significant genetic structure in Mesoamerican jaguars, roughly grouping individuals into four genetic clusters with varying levels of admixture. Gene flow was highest among Selva Maya jaguars (northern Guatemala and central Belize), whereas genetic differentiation among all other sampling sites was moderate. Genetic subdivision was most pronounced between Selva Maya and Honduran jaguars, suggesting limited jaguar movement between these close geographic regions and ultimately refuting the hypothesis of contemporary panmixia. To maintain a critical linkage for jaguars dispersing through the Mesoamerican landscape and ensure long-term viability of this near threatened species, we recommend continued management and maintenance of jaguar corridors. The baseline genetic data provided by this study underscores the importance of
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Discrete two-sex models of population dynamics: On modelling the mating function
Bessa-Gomes, Carmen; Legendre, Stéphane; Clobert, Jean
2010-09-01
Although sexual reproduction has long been a central subject of theoretical ecology, until recently its consequences for population dynamics were largely overlooked. This is now changing, and many studies have addressed this issue, showing that when the mating system is taken into account, the population dynamics depends on the relative abundance of males and females, and is non-linear. Moreover, sexual reproduction increases the extinction risk, namely due to the Allee effect. Nevertheless, different studies have identified diverse potential consequences, depending on the choice of mating function. In this study, we investigate the consequences of three alternative mating functions that are frequently used in discrete population models: the minimum; the harmonic mean; and the modified harmonic mean. We consider their consequences at three levels: on the probability that females will breed; on the presence and intensity of the Allee effect; and on the extinction risk. When we consider the harmonic mean, the number of times the individuals of the least abundant sex mate exceeds their mating potential, which implies that with variable sex-ratios the potential reproductive rate is no longer under the modeller's control. Consequently, the female breeding probability exceeds 1 whenever the sex-ratio is male-biased, which constitutes an obvious problem. The use of the harmonic mean is thus only justified if we think that this parameter should be re-defined in order to represent the females' breeding rate and the fact that females may reproduce more than once per breeding season. This phenomenon buffers the Allee effect, and reduces the extinction risk. However, when we consider birth-pulse populations, such a phenomenon is implausible because the number of times females can reproduce per birth season is limited. In general, the minimum or modified harmonic mean mating functions seem to be more suitable for assessing the impact of mating systems on population dynamics.
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Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier
2018-05-01
In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.
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Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier
2018-05-01
In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.
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Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
McDonald, Jenni L; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart
2016-01-01
clear patterns related to growth form. We find a surprising tendency for plant populations to boom rather than bust in response to temporal changes in vital rates and that stochastic growth rates increase with increasing tendency to boom. Synthesis. Transient dynamics contribute significantly...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vicente Pongitory Gifoni Moura
2001-02-01
Full Text Available Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis (Sénécl Barr. & Golf. is a tropical pine that naturally occurs in lowland areas of Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and eastern Mexico. It has been one of the most studied tropical pines and the one with the most commercial importance in Brazil. The objective of this work was to select the best provenances for plantations and best trees in families for the establishment of seed orchards. For that a trial with five provenances and 47 open-pollinated families was planted near Planaltina, Federal District, in the Cerrado Region of Brazil. The provenances tested were Poptun (Guatemala, Gualjoco, Los Limones, El Porvenir and Santa Cruz de Yojoa (Honduras and assessed at 12 years of age. Poptun and Gualjoco had larger volume, and Los Limones and El Porvenir the lowest incidence of forks and foxtails. Individual tree heritabilities for volume, stem form and branch diameter were 0.34, 0.06, and 0.26 respectively. More than 90% of the trees had defects, common in unimproved P. caribaea. Selection criteria for quality traits need to be relaxed in the first generation of breeding to allow for larger genetic gains in productivity. Results from this test compared with P. caribaea var. hondurensis trials in other Brazilian, Colombian and Venezuelan sites suggest that provenance x site and family x site interactions are not as strong as in other pine species.Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis (Sénécl Barr. & Golf. é uma espécie tropical que ocorre naturalmente nas terras baixas de Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicarágua e no leste do México. Esta espécie tem sido uma das mais estudadas entre os pinos tropicais e uma das mais importantes comercialmente no centro e norte do Brasil. O objetivo deste trabalho foi selecionar as melhores procedências para plantios e também as melhores árvores dentro de famílias para o estabelecimento de pomares de semente. Para isso, um experimento com cinco
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Potts, Jonathan R; Petrovskii, Sergei V
2017-05-07
Animal movement is a key mechanism for shaping population dynamics. The effect of interactions between competing animals on a population's survival has been studied for many decades. However, interactions also affect an animal's subsequent movement decisions. Despite this, the indirect effect of these decisions on animal survival is much less well-understood. Here, we incorporate movement responses to foreign animals into a model of two competing populations, where inter-specific competition is greater than intra-specific competition. When movement is diffusive, the travelling wave moves from the stronger population to the weaker. However, by incorporating behaviourally induced directed movement towards the stronger population, the weaker one can slow the travelling wave down, even reversing its direction. Hence movement responses can switch the predictions of traditional mechanistic models. Furthermore, when environmental heterogeneity is combined with aggressive movement strategies, it is possible for spatially segregated co-existence to emerge. In this situation, the spatial patterns of the competing populations have the unusual feature that they are slightly out-of-phase with the environmental patterns. Finally, incorporating dynamic movement responses can also enable stable co-existence in a homogeneous environment, giving a new mechanism for spatially segregated co-existence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Population pressures in Latin America. [Updated reprint].
Merrick, T W
1991-04-01
This publication examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II, and considers their social and economic impact on the region. The paper looks at the following demographic trends: population growth, fertility, death rate, internal migration, international migration, and age structure. It also examines other factors such as marriage and family structure, and employment and education. Furthermore, the publication provides a discussion of the relationship between population growth and economic development from both a neo-Malthusian and Structuralist view. Finally, the paper considers the region's current population policies and future population prospects. From 1950-65, annual population growth averaged 2.8%, which decreased moderately to 2.4% from 1965-85. The report identified 3 population growth patterns in the region: 1) countries which experienced early and gradual declines in birth and death rates and generally lower population growth rates (the group includes Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, with Chile and Panama also closely fitting the description); 2) countries which underwent rapid declines in birth rate during the 1950s and which began experiencing declines in the birth rate after 1960 (Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Paraguay, and Venezuela, with Ecuador and Peru as borderline cases); and 3) countries which didn't begin to experience declines in mortality rates until relatively late and which lag behind in fertility declines (Bolivia, Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua). Although population growth has slowed and will continue to fall, UN projections do not expect the population to stabilize until late in the 21st Century.
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General two-species interacting Lotka-Volterra system: Population dynamics and wave propagation
Zhu, Haoqi; Wang, Mao-Xiang; Lai, Pik-Yin
2018-05-01
The population dynamics of two interacting species modeled by the Lotka-Volterra (LV) model with general parameters that can promote or suppress the other species is studied. It is found that the properties of the two species' isoclines determine the interaction of species, leading to six regimes in the phase diagram of interspecies interaction; i.e., there are six different interspecific relationships described by the LV model. Four regimes allow for nontrivial species coexistence, among which it is found that three of them are stable, namely, weak competition, mutualism, and predator-prey scenarios can lead to win-win coexistence situations. The Lyapunov function for general nontrivial two-species coexistence is also constructed. Furthermore, in the presence of spatial diffusion of the species, the dynamics can lead to steady wavefront propagation and can alter the population map. Propagating wavefront solutions in one dimension are investigated analytically and by numerical solutions. The steady wavefront speeds are obtained analytically via nonlinear dynamics analysis and verified by numerical solutions. In addition to the inter- and intraspecific interaction parameters, the intrinsic speed parameters of each species play a decisive role in species populations and wave properties. In some regimes, both species can copropagate with the same wave speeds in a finite range of parameters. Our results are further discussed in the light of possible biological relevance and ecological implications.
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Population and phase dynamics of F=1 spinor condensates in an external magnetic field
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Romano, D.R.; Passos, E.J.V. de
2004-01-01
We show that the classical dynamics underlying the mean-field description of homogeneous mixtures of spinor F=1 Bose-Einstein condensates in an external magnetic field is integrable as a consequence of number conservation and axial symmetry in spin space. The population dynamics depends only on the quadratic term of the Zeeman energy and on the strength of the spin-dependent term of the atom-atom interaction. We determine the equilibrium populations as function of the ratio of these two quantities and the miscibility of the hyperfine components in the ground state spinors are thoroughly discussed. Outside the equilibrium, the populations are always a periodic function of time where the periodic motion can be a libration or a rotation. Our studies also indicate the absence of metastability
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Paz-Bailey, Gabriela; Isern Fernandez, Virginia; Morales Miranda, Sonia; Jacobson, Jerry O; Mendoza, Suyapa; Paredes, Mayte A; Danaval, Damien C; Mabey, David; Monterroso, Edgar
2012-01-01
We conducted a study among HIV-positive men and women in Honduras to describe demographics, HIV risk behaviors and sexually transmitted infection prevalence, and identify correlates of unsafe sex. Participants were recruited from HIV clinics and nongovernmental organizations in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula, Honduras in a cross-sectional study in 2006. We used audio-assisted computer interviews on demographics; behaviors in the past 12 months, 6 months, and 30 days; and access to care. Assays performed included herpes (HSV-2 Herpes Select), syphilis (rapid plasma reagin [RPR] and Treponema pallidum particle agglutination assay [TPPA]) serology, and other sexually transmitted infections by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to assess variables associated with unprotected sex across all partner types in the past 12 months. Of 810 participants, 400 were from Tegucigalpa and 410 from San Pedro Sula; 367 (45%) were men. Mean age was 37 years (interquartile range: 31-43). Consistent condom use for men and women was below 60% for all partner types. In multivariate analysis, unprotected sex was more likely among women (odds ratio [OR]: 1.9, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-3.1, P = 0.007), those with HIV diagnoses within the past year (OR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.1-3.7, P = 0.016), those reporting difficulty accessing condoms (OR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.4-4.7, P = 0.003), and those reporting discrimination (OR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1-3.0, P = 0.016). Programs targeting HIV-positive patients need to address gender-based disparities, improve condom access and use, and help establish a protective legal and policy environment free of stigma and discrimination.
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Dynamics of weed populations : spatial pattern formation and implications for control
Wallinga, J.
1998-01-01
Modelling studies were carried out to analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of annual weed populations and to identify the key factors that determine the long-term herbicide use of weed control programmes. Three different weed control programmes were studied.
In the first weed
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Spatial variation in population dynamics of Sitka mice in floodplain forests.
T.A. Hanley; J.C. Barnard
1999-01-01
Population dynamics and demography of the Sitka mouse, Peromyscus keeni sitkensis, were studied by mark-recapture live-trapping over a 4-year period in four floodplain and upland forest habitats: old-growth Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) floodplain; red alder (Alnus rubra) floodplain; beaver-pond...
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Gender relations and reproductive decision making in Honduras.
Speizer, Ilene S; Whittle, Lisa; Carter, Marion
2005-09-01
Gender differences influence decision making about reproductive health. Most information on reproductive health decision making in Latin America has come from women's reports of men's involvement. Data were collected in Honduras in 2001 through two national surveys that used independent samples of men aged 15-59 years and women aged 15-49. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify factors associated with male-centered decision-making attitudes and behaviors regarding family size and family planning use. Overall, 25% of women and 28% of men said that men alone should be responsible for at least one of these reproductive decisions, and 27% of women and 21% of men said that the man in their household made one or both decisions. For women, having no children and being in a consensual union were each associated with holding male-centered decision-making attitudes; having less than a secondary education, being of medium or low socioeconomic status and living in a rural area were each associated with male-centered decision making. Among men, having less than secondary education and being in a consensual union were each associated with male-centered decision-making attitudes and behavior. Women who had ever used or were currently using modern methods were significantly less likely to hold attitudes supporting male-centered decision-making than were those who relied on traditional methods and those who had never used a modern method. Programs should recognize power imbalances between genders that affect women's ability to meet their stated fertility desires. In rural areas, programs should target men, encouraging them to communicate with their wives on reproductive decisions.
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A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism.
Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L
2010-05-01
Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer-resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant-mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.
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A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism
Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.
2010-01-01
Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.
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Population structure of the Classic period Maya.
Scherer, Andrew K
2007-03-01
This study examines the population structure of Classic period (A.D. 250-900) Maya populations through analysis of odontometric variation of 827 skeletons from 12 archaeological sites in Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, and Honduras. The hypothesis that isolation by distance characterized Classic period Maya population structure is tested using Relethford and Blangero's (Hum Biol 62 (1990) 5-25) approach to R matrix analysis for quantitative traits. These results provide important biological data for understanding ancient Maya population history, particularly the effects of the competing Tikal and Calakmul hegemonies on patterns of lowland Maya site interaction. An overall F(ST) of 0.018 is found for the Maya area, indicating little among-group variation for the Classic Maya sites tested. Principal coordinates plots derived from the R matrix analysis show little regional patterning in the data, though the geographic outliers of Kaminaljuyu and a pooled Pacific Coast sample did not cluster with the lowland Maya sites. Mantel tests comparing the biological distance matrix to a geographic distance matrix found no association between genetic and geographic distance. In the Relethford-Blangero analysis, most sites possess negative or near-zero residuals, indicating minimal extraregional gene flow. The exceptions were Barton Ramie, Kaminaljuyu, and Seibal. A scaled R matrix analysis clarifies that genetic drift is a consideration for understanding Classic Maya population structure. All results indicate that isolation by distance does not describe Classic period Maya population structure. (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Population dynamics of graphene driven by a few-cycle laser pulse
Ding, Chunling; Yu, Rong; Hao, Xiangying; Zhang, Duo; Zu, Fengxia
2017-06-01
We study the time evolution of the populations in a two-dimensional (2D) graphene system by employing a few-cycle laser pulse with a linear polarization. Specifically, we present a comparative numerical analysis of the population dynamics of graphene in three different model configurations. Our results show that the Rabi-like oscillations and intraband population inversion can be observed in the population spectrum, which originated from the periodicity of a few-cycle laser pulse and the intraband Coulomb scattering. Also, coherent population oscillations are produced across the Dirac point when the Rabi frequency of the laser field which is used to couple the interband transition is much larger than that couples the intraband transition, and vice versa. These investigations may be helpful to enhance the performance of graphene-based ultrafast electronic and optoelectronic devices, including light-emitting devices, touch screens, photodetectors, and ultrafast lasers.
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McCranie, James R.; Gotte, Steve W.
2015-01-01
Confusion exists in the literature concerning the collecting event of the teiid lizard Tiaporus fuliginosus. We investigated the literature and documents stored at the Smithsonian Institution Archives involving the collector of those specimens in an effort to resolve that confusion. We conclude that the type series was collected on the Swan Islands of Honduras by Charles H. Townsend during 1887. We also provide a redescription of that nominal form and show that it is a valid species that should be called Ameiva fuliginosa. We also examined the type series of A. panchlora from Old Providence, Colombia and confirm that its 1950 placement as a junior synonym of A. fuliginosa is correct.
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Comic books carry health messages to rural children in Honduras.
Vigano, O
1983-12-01
This article reports on the use of children as message carriers in a rural water and sanitation project in western Honduras. The Honduran Water and Sanitation Project represents the 1st such effort to have a specific health education component. It was decided to direct the education component toward children because of their important role in providing and handling drinking water and caring for younger members of the family. Rural primary schools surfaced as a potential channel of communication. The comic book format was selected because it is simple enough to be used in the schools without much training, economical to produce (US$0.30/copy), effective and attractive to children, and consistent with the Project's philosophy that dialogue and participation are essential components of health education. Each comic book contains a single-concept message, e.g., 1 cause of water contamination or a method of water purification. The 1st module was pretested in 3 rural schools. Following classroom study of the comic book, correct answers on 5 questions related to the comic book story increased from 59% to 80%. 95% of the children indicated that they liked the characters, and teachers expressed satisfaction with the materials. 1200 copies of the 1st module have been distributed to 30 rural schools, and production plans include 11 additional modules on topics such as prevention of water-related sickness and personal hygiene.
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Leprosy Associated with Atypical Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Nicaragua and Honduras.
Soto, Lucrecia Acosta; Caballero, Nelson; Fuentes, Lesny Ruth; Muñoz, Pedro Torres; Gómez Echevarría, Jose Ramón; López, Montserrat Pérez; Bornay Llinares, Fernando Jorge; Stanford, John L; Stanford, Cynthia A; Donoghue, Helen D
2017-10-01
In Central America, few cases of leprosy have been reported, but the disease may be unrecognized. Diagnosis is based on clinical criteria and histology. Preliminary field work in Nicaragua and Honduras found patients, including many children, with skin lesions clinically suggestive of atypical cutaneous leishmaniasis or indeterminate leprosy. Histology could not distinguish these diseases although acid-fast organisms were visible in a few biopsies. Lesions healed after standard antimicrobial therapy for leprosy. In the present study, patients, family members, and other community members were skin-tested and provided nasal swabs and blood samples. Biopsies were taken from a subgroup of patients with clinical signs of infection. Two laboratories analyzed samples, using local in-house techniques. Mycobacterium leprae , Leishmania spp. and Leishmania infantum were detected using polymerase chain reactions. Mycobacterium leprae DNA was detected in blood samples and nasal swabs, including some cases where leprosy was not clinically suspected. Leishmania spp. were also detected in blood and nasal swabs. Most biopsies contained Leishmania DNA and coinfection of Leishmania spp. with M. leprae occurred in 33% of cases. Mycobacterium leprae DNA was also detected and sequenced from Nicaraguan and Honduran environmental samples. In conclusion, leprosy and leishmaniasis are present in both regions, and leprosy appears to be widespread. The nature of any relationship between these two pathogens and the epidemiology of these infections need to be elucidated.
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Population dynamics, life-history traits of and habitat use by two ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Population dynamics and life-history traits of two sympatric nothobranchiid killifishes, Epiplatys bifasciatus and E. spilargyreius, were studied for 24 months in an intermittent stream in the Kainji Lake Basin, Nigeria. Epiplatys bifasciatus was more abundant throughout the study period, but monthly abundance of both species ...
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Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise
Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.
2012-01-01
Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lindsay M Beck-Johnson
Full Text Available The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Frank Hartwich
2010-10-01
Full Text Available In this paper, results from a study on the use of improved coffee production technology schemes among smallholder coffee producers in three prominent coffee producing regions in Honduras are presented. The impact of various schemes (trajectories in which different agents influence the producers’ decision to use new technologies was analyzed. In particular, there are differences in the influence of a private coffee buying organizations and b government and public development agencies on the innovation behavior of coffee growers. Drawing from network data that depict the internal and outbound connectedness of producers in three village communities in main coffee producing zones in Honduras, tools of social network analysis were applied to find out how interactions with certain agents, separately and cumulatively, has influenced their use of improved methods in coffee production and marketing. The results suggest that there are significant differences in the way that various providers of knowledge and technology, especially private buyers and development agencies, influence the farmers’ behavior towards innovation. The influence of buyers, according to the data, is focused on certification and quality aspects, whereas development agents focus on improved agronomic practices. Farmers who communicate with the extension branch of input providers tend to be more innovative. These results suggest that development programs should take more seriously into account the role of private actors in innovation among agricultural producers and, hence, design development programs in such a way to allow for collaboration with these agents.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anna M. Calvert
2009-12-01
Full Text Available For seasonal migrants, logistical constraints have often limited conservation efforts to improving survival and reproduction during the breeding season only. Yet, mounting empirical evidence suggests that events occurring throughout the migratory life cycle can critically alter the demography of many migrant species. Herein, we build upon recent syntheses of avian migration research to review the role of non-breeding seasons in determining the population dynamics and fitness of diverse migratory taxa, including salmonid fishes, marine mammals, ungulates, sea turtles, butterflies, and numerous bird groups. We discuss several similarities across these varied migrants: (i non-breeding survivorship tends to be a strong driver of population growth; (ii non-breeding events can affect fitness in subsequent seasons through seasonal interactions at individual- and population-levels; (iii broad-scale climatic influences often alter non-breeding resources and migration timing, and may amplify population impacts through covariation among seasonal vital rates; and (iv changes to both stationary and migratory non-breeding habitats can have important consequences for abundance and population trends. Finally, we draw on these patterns to recommend that future conservation research for seasonal migrants will benefit from: (1 more explicit recognition of the important parallels among taxonomically diverse migratory animals; (2 an expanded research perspective focused on quantification of all seasonal vital rates and their interactions; and (3 the development of detailed population projection models that account for complexity and uncertainty in migrant population dynamics.
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Characterisation of a rare, reassortant human G10P[14] rotavirus strain detected in Honduras.
Quaye, Osbourne; Roy, Sunando; Rungsrisuriyachai, Kunchala; Esona, Mathew D; Xu, Ziqian; Tam, Ka Ian; Banegas, Dina J Castro; Rey-Benito, Gloria; Bowen, Michael D
2018-01-01
Although first detected in animals, the rare rotavirus strain G10P[14] has been sporadically detected in humans in Slovenia, Thailand, United Kingdom and Australia among other countries. Earlier studies suggest that the strains found in humans resulted from interspecies transmission and reassortment between human and bovine rotavirus strains. In this study, a G10P[14] rotavirus genotype detected in a human stool sample in Honduras during the 2010-2011 rotavirus season, from an unvaccinated 30-month old boy who reported at the hospital with severe diarrhea and vomiting, was characterised to determine the possible evolutionary origin of the rare strain. For the sample detected as G10P[14], 10% suspension was prepared and used for RNA extraction and sequence independent amplification. The amplicons were sequenced by next-generation sequencing using the Illumina MiSeq 150 paired end method. The sequence reads were analysed using CLC Genomics Workbench 6.0 and phylogenetic trees were constructed using PhyML version 3.0. The next generation sequencing and phylogenetic analyses of the 11-segmented genome of the G10P[14] strain allowed classification as G10-P[14]-I2-R2-C2-M2-A3-N2-T6-E2-H3. Six of the genes (VP1, VP2, VP3, VP6, NSP2 and NSP4) were DS-1-like. NSP1 and NSP5 were AU-1-like and NSP3 was T6, which suggests that multiple reassortment events occurred in the evolution of the strain. The phylogenetic analyses and genetic distance calculations showed that the VP7, VP4, VP6, VP1, VP3, NSP1, NSP3 and NSP4 genes clustered predominantly with bovine strains. NSP2 and VP2 genes were most closely related to simian and human strains, respectively, and NSP5 was most closely related to a rhesus strain. The genetic characterisation of the G10P[14] strain from Honduras suggests that its genome resulted from multiple reassortment events which were possibly mediated through interspecies transmissions.
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Extinction transition in stochastic population dynamics in a random, convective environment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Juhász, Róbert
2013-01-01
Motivated by modeling the dynamics of a population living in a flowing medium where the environmental factors are random in space, we have studied an asymmetric variant of the one-dimensional contact process, where the quenched random reproduction rates are systematically greater in one direction than in the opposite one. The spatial disorder turns out to be a relevant perturbation but, according to results of Monte Carlo simulations, the behavior of the model at the extinction transition is different from the (infinite-randomness) critical behavior of the disordered symmetric contact process. Depending on the strength a of the asymmetry, the critical population drifts either with a finite velocity or with an asymptotically vanishing velocity as x(t) ∼ t μ(a) , where μ(a) < 1. Dynamical quantities are non-self-averaging at the extinction transition; the survival probability, for instance, shows multiscaling, i.e. it is characterized by a broad spectrum of effective exponents. For a sufficiently weak asymmetry, a Griffiths phase appears below the extinction transition, where the survival probability decays as a non-universal power of the time while, above the transition, another extended phase emerges, where the front of the population advances anomalously with a diffusion exponent continuously varying with the control parameter. (paper)
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zajnullin, V.G.; Yushkova, E.A.
2008-01-01
In genetically non-uniform populations D. melanogaster in conditions of a chronic irradiation in a doze 10-11 about sGy/generation dynamics parameters of populations was investigated. It is established, that number of individuals in irradiated populations is lower, than in control. It is revealed, that viability of populations undergone to a chronic irradiation depends on their genotype. The gradual increase in fruitfulness, viability of individuals and decrease in a level of lethal mutations in a number of generations after of an irradiation in low doses is caused by adaptable opportunities of populations. (authors)
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Solo-Gabriele Helena María
1998-01-01
Full Text Available During June 1996, water supplies of the city of San Pedro Sula, Honduras, were sampled to obtain an assessment of Cryptosporidium oocyst and Giardia cyst concentrations. Each sample was concentrated and stained with an indirect immunofluorescent antibody, and parasites were counted through microscopic analysis. In three surface water supplies, Cryptosporidium oocyst concentrations ranged from 58 to 260 oocysts per 100 L, and Giardia cysts were present in concentrations ranging from 380 to 2100 cysts per 100 L. Unlike the surface water samples, groundwater had a higher concentration of Cryptosporidium oocysts (26/100 L than Giardia cysts (6/100 L, suggesting that the groundwater aquifer protects the water supply more effectively from larger Giardia cysts. Cryptosporidium oocyst concentrations are within the typical range for surface water supplies in North America whereas Giardia cyst concentrations are elevated. Efforts should be made to protect raw water from sources of contamination.
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Dynamics of genetic processes in chronically irradiated populations of small mammals
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ryabokon', N.I.; Goncharova, R.I.; Smolich, I.I.; Kapitanova, N.P.; Nikitchenko, N.V.
2000-01-01
The distinctive features of dynamics of mutagenesis in mammalian populations under chronic low-intensive irradiation were first revealed. The main of them is gradual increase in mutability in somatic cells and embryonal lethality during series of irradiated generations of animals (bank vole - Clethrionomys glareolus). The data obtained strongly suggest that there are oppositely directed processes in natural populations after irradiation of more than 20 generations of animals: on the one hand, accumulation of mutations (genetic load of populations) and pre-mutation events which increase genome instability of germ and somatic cells in consecutive generations of animals, and on the other, formation of genetic radio adaptation through better functioning protection systems. In this period of micro evolution in chronically irradiated populations, the frequencies of genetic damages could be higher if the radiation adaptation doesn't form. (authors)
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Dynamic population artificial bee colony algorithm for multi-objective optimal power flow
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Man Ding
2017-03-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic population (ABC-DP, which synergizes the idea of extended life-cycle evolving model to balance the exploration and exploitation tradeoff. The proposed ABC-DP is a more bee-colony-realistic model that the bee can reproduce and die dynamically throughout the foraging process and population size varies as the algorithm runs. ABC-DP is then used for solving the optimal power flow (OPF problem in power systems that considers the cost, loss, and emission impacts as the objective functions. The 30-bus IEEE test system is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed algorithm. The simulation results, which are also compared to nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGAII and multi-objective ABC (MOABC, are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.
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Predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics on stepping-stone domains with dispersal delays.
Eide, Ragna M; Krause, Andrew L; Fadai, Nabil T; Van Gorder, Robert A
2018-08-14
We examine the role of the travel time of a predator along a spatial network on predator-prey population interactions, where the predator is able to partially or fully sustain itself on a resource subsidy. The impact of access to food resources on the stability and behaviour of the predator-prey-subsidy system is investigated, with a primary focus on how incorporating travel time changes the dynamics. The population interactions are modelled by a system of delay differential equations, where travel time is incorporated as discrete delay in the network diffusion term in order to model time taken to migrate between spatial regions. The model is motivated by the Arctic ecosystem, where the Arctic fox consumes both hunted lemming and scavenged seal carcass. The fox travels out on sea ice, in addition to quadrennially migrating over substantial distances. We model the spatial predator-prey-subsidy dynamics through a "stepping-stone" approach. We find that a temporal delay alone does not push species into extinction, but rather may stabilize or destabilize coexistence equilibria. We are able to show that delay can stabilize quasi-periodic or chaotic dynamics, and conclude that the incorporation of dispersal delay has a regularizing effect on dynamics, suggesting that dispersal delay can be proposed as a solution to the paradox of enrichment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiuyan Feng
2017-05-01
Full Text Available Climate change, species dispersal ability and habitat fragmentation are major factors influencing species distribution and genetic diversity, especially for the range-restricted and threatened taxa. Here, using four sequences of chloroplast DNAs (cpDNAs, three nuclear genes (nDNAs and 12 nuclear microsatellites (SSRs, we investigated the genetic diversity, genetic structure, divergence time and population dynamics of Cycas segmentifida D. Y. Wang and C. Y. Deng, a threatened cycad species endemic to Southwest China. High levels of genetic diversity and genetic differentiation were revealed in C. segmentifida. Haplotypes of networks showed two evolutionary units in C. segmentifida, with the exception of the nuclear gene GTP network. Meanwhile, the UPGMA tree, structure and PCoA analyses suggested that 14 populations of C. segmentifida were divided into two clades. There was significant effect of isolation by distance (IBD in this species. However, this species did not display a significant phylogeographic structure. The divergence time estimation suggested that its haplotypes diverged during the Middle Pleistocene. Additionally, the population dynamics inferred from different DNA sequences analyses were discordant. Bottleneck analysis showed that populations of C. segmentifida did not experience any recent bottleneck effect, but rather pointed to a contraction of its effective population size over time. Furthermore, our results suggested that the population BM which held an intact population structure and occupied undisturbed habitat was at the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, implying that this population is a free-mating system. These genetic features provide important information for the sustainable management of C. segmentifida.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
SUWARNO
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Suwarno (2010 Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons. Biodiversitas 11: 19-23. The population dynamic of Papilio polytes L. (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons was investigated in the citrus orchard in Tasek Gelugor, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia. Population of immature stages of P. polytes was observed alternate day from January to March 2006 (dry season, DS, from April to July 2006 (secondary wet season, SWS, and from October to December 2006 (primary wet season, PWS. The population dynamics of the immature stages of P. polytes varied between seasons. The immature stages of P. polytes are more abundance and significantly different in the PWS than those of the DS and the SWS. The larval densities in all seasons decreased with progressive development of the instar stages. Predators and parasitoids are the main factor in regulating the population abundance of immature stages of P. polytes. There were positive correlations between the abundance of immature stages of P. polytes and their natural enemies abundance in each season. Ooencyrtus papilioni Ashmead (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae is the most egg parasitoid. Oxyopes quadrifasciatus L. Koch. and O. elegans L. Koch. (Araneae: Oxyopidae are the main predators in the young larvae, meanwhile Sycanus dichotomus Stal. (Heteroptera: Reduviidae, Calotes versicolor Fitzinger (Squamata: Agamidae, birds and praying mantis attacked the older larvae.
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Seth A. Ex; Robert DeRose; James N. Long
2011-01-01
Curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) is a little-studied woodland tree that occurs in pure stands throughout the Intermountain West. Stand development and population dynamics of this species are poorly understood, despite their relevance to management. We describe here the development of stand age structures and population dynamics of mahogany...
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.
2001-01-01
Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.
2001-01-01
Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity.
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Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Freire
2012-11-01
Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.
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Payen, Celia; Di Rienzi, Sara C; Ong, Giang T; Pogachar, Jamie L; Sanchez, Joseph C; Sunshine, Anna B; Raghuraman, M K; Brewer, Bonita J; Dunham, Maitreya J
2014-03-20
Population adaptation to strong selection can occur through the sequential or parallel accumulation of competing beneficial mutations. The dynamics, diversity, and rate of fixation of beneficial mutations within and between populations are still poorly understood. To study how the mutational landscape varies across populations during adaptation, we performed experimental evolution on seven parallel populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae continuously cultured in limiting sulfate medium. By combining quantitative polymerase chain reaction, array comparative genomic hybridization, restriction digestion and contour-clamped homogeneous electric field gel electrophoresis, and whole-genome sequencing, we followed the trajectory of evolution to determine the identity and fate of beneficial mutations. During a period of 200 generations, the yeast populations displayed parallel evolutionary dynamics that were driven by the coexistence of independent beneficial mutations. Selective amplifications rapidly evolved under this selection pressure, in particular common inverted amplifications containing the sulfate transporter gene SUL1. Compared with single clones, detailed analysis of the populations uncovers a greater complexity whereby multiple subpopulations arise and compete despite a strong selection. The most common evolutionary adaptation to strong selection in these populations grown in sulfate limitation is determined by clonal interference, with adaptive variants both persisting and replacing one another.
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Representation of dynamical stimuli in populations of threshold neurons.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tatjana Tchumatchenko
2011-10-01
Full Text Available Many sensory or cognitive events are associated with dynamic current modulations in cortical neurons. This raises an urgent demand for tractable model approaches addressing the merits and limits of potential encoding strategies. Yet, current theoretical approaches addressing the response to mean- and variance-encoded stimuli rarely provide complete response functions for both modes of encoding in the presence of correlated noise. Here, we investigate the neuronal population response to dynamical modifications of the mean or variance of the synaptic bombardment using an alternative threshold model framework. In the variance and mean channel, we provide explicit expressions for the linear and non-linear frequency response functions in the presence of correlated noise and use them to derive population rate response to step-like stimuli. For mean-encoded signals, we find that the complete response function depends only on the temporal width of the input correlation function, but not on other functional specifics. Furthermore, we show that both mean- and variance-encoded signals can relay high-frequency inputs, and in both schemes step-like changes can be detected instantaneously. Finally, we obtain the pairwise spike correlation function and the spike triggered average from the linear mean-evoked response function. These results provide a maximally tractable limiting case that complements and extends previous results obtained in the integrate and fire framework.
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Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Cimler, Richard; Dolezal, Ondrej; Kuca, Kamil
2016-01-01
Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled. The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation. For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat. Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million. System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions.
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Experimental evolution and the dynamics of adaptation and genome evolution in microbial populations.
Lenski, Richard E
2017-10-01
Evolution is an on-going process, and it can be studied experimentally in organisms with rapid generations. My team has maintained 12 populations of Escherichia coli in a simple laboratory environment for >25 years and 60 000 generations. We have quantified the dynamics of adaptation by natural selection, seen some of the populations diverge into stably coexisting ecotypes, described changes in the bacteria's mutation rate, observed the new ability to exploit a previously untapped carbon source, characterized the dynamics of genome evolution and used parallel evolution to identify the genetic targets of selection. I discuss what the future might hold for this particular experiment, briefly highlight some other microbial evolution experiments and suggest how the fields of experimental evolution and microbial ecology might intersect going forward.
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[Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].
Boland, B
1995-12-01
The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of
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Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hyman, James M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Restrepo, Juan M [UNIV OF ARIZONA; Rael, Rosalyn C [UNIV OF ARIZONA
2009-01-01
We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.
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Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia
Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah
2013-01-01
Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E = 0.583 in KM and H E = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A S = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A S = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria
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Generalization of the Rabi population inversion dynamics in the sub-one-cycle pulse limit
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Doslic, N.
2006-01-01
We consider the population inversion in a two-level system generated by a sub-one-cycle pulse excitation. Specifically, we explore the effect that the time derivative of the pulse envelope has on the Rabi dynamics. Our analysis is based on a combination of analytical, perturbative, and nonperturbative treatments and is complemented by numerical simulations. We find a shortening of the Rabi inversion period and show that complete inversion is unobtainable under resonant, ultrashort pulse conditions. The impact of nonresonant and carrier-envelope phase-dependent effects on the dynamics of two-level and multilevel systems is studied numerically, and conditions for complete population inversion are derived
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Modeling population dynamics of mitochondria in mammalian cells
Kornick, Kellianne; Das, Moumita
Mitochondria are organelles located inside eukaryotic cells and are essential for several key cellular processes such as energy (ATP) production, cell signaling, differentiation, and apoptosis. All organisms are believed to have low levels of variation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and alterations in mtDNA are connected to a range of human health conditions, including epilepsy, heart failure, Parkinsons disease, diabetes, and multiple sclerosis. Therefore, understanding how changes in mtDNA accumulate over time and are correlated to changes in mitochondrial function and cell properties can have a profound impact on our understanding of cell physiology and the origins of some diseases. Motivated by this, we develop and study a mathematical model to determine which cellular parameters have the largest impact on mtDNA population dynamics. The model consists of coupled ODEs to describe subpopulations of healthy and dysfunctional mitochondria subject to mitochondrial fission, fusion, autophagy, and mutation. We study the time evolution and stability of each sub-population under specific selection biases and pressures by tuning specific terms in our model. Our results may provide insights into how sub-populations of mitochondria survive and evolve under different selection pressures. This work was supported by a Grant from the Moore Foundation.
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Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro
2016-09-01
Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luca Guerrini
2013-01-01
Full Text Available We introduce a time-to-build technology in a Solow model with nonconstant population. Our analysis shows that the population dynamics may be a source of stability switches and Hopf bifurcations. The analytical results are obtained using the recent technique introduced by Beretta and Kuang (2002 in the studying of delayed differential equations with delay-dependent coefficients in characteristic equation. Numerical simulations are performed in order to illustrate the main dynamic features of the model.
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Mccranie, James R; Rovito, Sean M
2014-05-09
We describe a new species of the plethodontid salamander genus Cryptotriton from Honduras after comparing morphological, molecular, and osteological data from the holotype to that of the other nominal forms of the genus. The new species differs from all of the known species of Cryptotriton in at least one character from all three datasets. We also suggest placing C. wakei in the synonymy of C. nasalis after examining the morphological and osteological characters of the single known specimen of C. wakei.
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Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks
Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.
2007-01-01
Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.
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Cell mass and cell cycle dynamics of an asynchronous budding yeast population
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lencastre Fernandes, Rita; Carlquist, Magnus; Lundin, Luisa
2013-01-01
of model predictions for cell property distributions against experimental data is scarce. This study focuses on the experimental and mathematical description of the dynamics of cell size and cell cycle position distributions, of a population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, in response to the substrate...