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Sample records for holocene climate variability

  1. Holocene climate variability and oceanographic changes off western South Africa

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    Zhao, Xueqin; Dupont, Lydie; E Meadows, Michael; Schefuß, Enno; Bouimetarhan, Ilham; Wefer, Gerold

    2017-04-01

    South Africa is located at a critical transition zone between subtropical and warm-temperate climate zones influenced by the Indian and Atlantic oceans. Presently, the seasonal changes of atmospheric and oceanic systems induce a pronounced rainfall seasonality comprised of two different rainfall zones over South Africa. How did this seasonality develop during the Holocene? To obtain a better understanding of how South African climates have evolved during the Holocene, we conduct a comprehensive spatial-temporal approach including pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from marine sediment samples retrieved from the Namaqualand mudbelt, a Holocene terrigenous mud deposit on the shelf of western South Africa. The representation of different vegetation communities in western South Africa is assessed through pollen analysis of surface sediments. This approach allows for climate reconstructions of the summer rainfall zone (SRZ) using Group 1 (Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Phragmites-type and Typha) and winter rainfall zone (WRZ) using Group 2 (Restionaceae, Ericaceae, Anthospermum, Stoebe/Elytropappus-type, Cliffortia, Passerina, Artemisia-type and Pentzia-type) from a single marine archive. The fossil pollen data from gravity core GeoB8331-4 indicate contrasting climate patterns in the SRZ and WRZ especially during the early and middle Holocene. The rainfall amount in the SRZ is dominated by insolation forcing, while in the WRZ it is mainly attributed to the latitudinal position of the southern westerlies. Dinoflagellate cyst data show significantly different oceanographic conditions associated with climate changes on land. High percentages of autotrophic taxa like Operculodinium centrocarpum and Spiniferites spp. indicate warm and stratified conditions during the early Holocene, suggesting reduced upwelling. In contrast, the middle Holocene is characterized by a strong increase in heterotrophic taxa in particular Lejeunecysta paratenella and Echinidinium spp., indicating cool

  2. Holocene Climate Variability on the Centennial and Millennial Time Scale

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    Eun Hee Lee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available There have been many suggestions and much debate about climate variability during the Holocene. However, their complex forcing factors and mechanisms have not yet been clearly identified. In this paper, we have examined the Holocene climate cycles and features based on the wavelet analyses of 14C, 10Be, and 18O records. The wavelet results of the 14C and 10Be data show that the cycles of ~2180-2310, ~970, ~500-520, ~350-360, and ~210-220 years are dominant, and the ~1720 and ~1500 year cycles are relatively weak and subdominant. In particular, the ~2180-2310 year periodicity corresponding to the Hallstatt cycle is constantly significant throughout the Holocene, while the ~970 year cycle corresponding to the Eddy cycle is mainly prominent in the early half of the Holocene. In addition, distinctive signals of the ~210-220 year period corresponding to the de Vries cycle appear recurrently in the wavelet distribution of 14C and 10Be, which coincide with the grand solar minima periods. These de Vries cycle events occurred every ~2270 years on average, implying a connection with the Hallstatt cycle. In contrast, the wavelet results of 18O data show that the cycles of ~1900-2000, ~900-1000, and ~550-560 years are dominant, while the ~2750 and ~2500 year cycles are subdominant. The periods of ~2750, ~2500, and ~1900 years being derived from the 18O records of NGRIP, GRIP and GISP2 ice cores, respectively, are rather longer or shorter than the Hallstatt cycle derived from the 14C and 10Be records. The records of these three sites all show the ~900-1000 year periodicity corresponding to the Eddy cycle in the early half of the Holocene.

  3. Millennial Scale Variability of the AMOC and its Link to Climate During the Holocene

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    Thornalley, D. J.; Oppo, D.; Keigwin, L. D.; Hall, I. R.; Moffa Sanchez, P.

    2014-12-01

    Several proxy and modelling studies suggest that there may have been considerable change in the operation the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Holocene. Yet despite its importance for regional and global climate, the Holocene history of the AMOC is poorly constrained. Improving our knowledge of past AMOC variability will contribute to our general understanding of the dynamics of ocean circulation and the role it may play in causing or amplifying climate variability on millennial timescales. We present Holocene grain-size records in depth transects from Blake Outer Ridge and Cape Hatteras, sampling the full-depth range of the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), the lower limb of the AMOC. These records will complement a depth-transect of grain-size records sampling the Iceland-Scotland (I-S) overflow, showing Holocene variations that reflect deglacial meltwater forcing in the early Holocene and insolation-forced trends from the middle-to-late Holocene (Thornalley et al., 2013, Climate of the Past). We will also present detailed grain-size records for the last 2,000 years, both in a depth transect of cores off Cape Hatteras, and from cores in the Iceland Basin, sampling the I-S overflow. Our extensive datasets enable us to provide a coherent synthesis of changes in the flow strength of key components of the AMOC on centennial-millennial and orbital timescales, which we can use to develop our understanding of past millennial-scale climate variability. Specific questions to be addressed include: How well coupled are Holocene trends in Iceland-Scotland overflow and the DWBC? How did I-S overflow and the AMOC vary during the last millennia, including the last ~150 years since the end of the Little Ice Age? Initial results suggest a long-term anti-phasing of the Nordic overflows, wherein mid-late Holocene weakening of the I-S overflow has been compensated for by a strengthening of Denmark Strait overflow. We will also report on pronounced

  4. Millennial- to century-scale variability in Gulf of Mexico Holocene climate records

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    Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.; Verardo, S.; Quinn, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    Proxy records from two piston cores in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) provide a detailed (50-100 year resolution) record of climate variability over the last 14,000 years. Long-term (millennial-scale) trends and changes are related to the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions and movement of the average position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) related to orbital forcing. The ??18O of the surface-dwelling planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber show negative excursions between 14 and 10.2 ka (radiocarbon years) that reflect influx of meltwater into the western GOM during melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The relative abundance of the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer is related to transport of Caribbean water into the GOM. Maximum transport of Caribbean surface waters and moisture into the GOM associated with a northward migration of the average position of the ITCZ occurs between about 6.5 and 4.5 ka. In addition, abundance variations of G. sacculifer show century-scale variability throughout most of the Holocene. The GOM record is consistent with records from other areas, suggesting that century-scale variability is a pervasive feature of Holocene climate. The frequency of several cycles in the climate records is similar to cycles identified in proxy records of solar variability, indicating that at least some of the century-scale climate variability during the Holocene is due to external (solar) forcing.

  5. Holocene record of glacier variability from lake sediments reveals tripartite climate history for Svalbard

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    van der Bilt, Willem; Bakke, Jostein; Vasskog, Kristian; D`Andrea, William; Bradley, Raymond; Olafsdottir, Sædis

    2016-04-01

    The Arctic is responding sensitively to ongoing global climate change, warming and moistening faster than any other region on the planet. Holocene proxy paleoclimate time series are increasingly used to put this amplified response in perspective by understanding Arctic climate processes beyond the instrumental period. Glaciers rapidly respond to climate shifts as demonstrated by their current demise around the world. This response has a composite climate signature, marked by shifts in hydroclimate (winter precipitation) as well as (summer) temperature. Attendant changes in glacier size are recorded by variations in glacigenic rock flour that may be deposited in downstream lakes. Here, we present a Holocene reconstruction of glacier activity, based on sediments from Hajeren, a glacier-fed lake on northwest Spitsbergen in the High Arctic Svalbard archipelago. Owing to undisturbed sediments and robust age control, we could resolve variability on a sub-centennial scale. To ensure the accurate detection of glacier activity, we applied a toolbox of physical, magnetic and geochemical proxies in conjunction with multivariate statistics. Our findings indicate a three-stage Holocene climate history for Svalbard, driving by melt water pulses, episodic Atlantic cooling and a decline in orbitally driven summer insolation. Correspondence between inferred advances, including a Holocene glacier maximum around 9.5 ka BP, suggests forcing by the melting LIS during the Early Holocene. Following a late Holocene Thermal Maximum around 7.4 ka BP, glaciers disappeared from the catchment. Glaciers reformed around 4.2 ka BP during the regional onset of the Neoglacial, supporting previous findings. This transition did, however, not mark the onset of persistent glacier activity in the catchment, but a series of centennial-scale cycles of growth and decay, including events around 3.3 and 1.1 ka BP. As orbitally driven insolation declined towards the present, the glaciation threshold

  6. Paleohydrology reconstruction and Holocene climate variability in the South Adriatic Sea

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    G. Siani

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Holocene paleohydrology reconstruction is derived combining planktonic and benthic stable oxygen and carbon isotopes, sea surface temperatures (SSTs and oxygen isotope composition of seawater (δ18Ow from a high sedimentation core collected in the South Adriatic Sea (SAS. Core chronology is based on 10 AMS 14C measures on planktonic foraminifera and tephra layers. Results reveal two contrasted paleohydrological periods that reflect (i a marked lowering of δ18Ow/salinity during the early to mid-Holocene (11.5 ka to 6.3 ka, including the two-step sapropel S1 deposition, followed during the mid- to upper Holocene by (ii a prevailing period of increased salinity and enhanced arid conditions in the South Adriatic Basin. Superimposed on these trends, short-term centennial-scale hydrological events punctuated the Holocene period in the SAS. During the early to mid-Holocene, two main SST coolings together with prominent δ18Ow/salinity lowering delineate the sapropel S1 interruption and the post-sapropel phase between 7.3 to 6.3 ka. After 6 ka, centennial-scale δ18Ow and G. bulloides δ13C lowering, mostly centered between 3 to 0.6 ka, reflect short-term hydrological changes related to more intensive runoff of the Po and/or Apennine rivers. These short-term events, even of lesser amplitude compared to the early to mid-Holocene period, may have induced a lowering of sea surface density and consequently reduced and/or inhibited the formation of deep bottom waters in the SAS. Comparison of the emerging centennial- to millennial-scale hydrological record with previous climatic records from the central Mediterranean area and north of the Alps reveal possible synchronicities (within the radiocarbon-dating uncertainty between phases of lower salinity in the SAS and periods of wetter climatic conditions around the north-central Adriatic Sea. Finally, wavelet analyses provide new clues about the potential origin of climate variability in the SAS, confirming

  7. Reconstruction of glacier variability from lake sediments reveals dynamic Holocene climate in Svalbard

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    van der Bilt, Willem G. M.; Bakke, Jostein; Vasskog, Kristian; D'Andrea, William J.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Ólafsdóttir, Sædis

    2015-10-01

    The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth. Holocene proxy time-series are increasingly used to put this amplified response in perspective by understanding Arctic climate processes beyond the instrumental period. However, available datasets are scarce, unevenly distributed and often of coarse resolution. Glaciers are sensitive recorders of climate shifts and variations in rock-flour production transfer this signal to the lacustrine sediment archives of downstream lakes. Here, we present the first full Holocene record of continuous glacier variability on Svalbard from glacier-fed Lake Hajeren. This reconstruction is based on an undisturbed lake sediment core that covers the entire Holocene and resolves variability on centennial scales owing to 26 dating points. A toolbox of physical, geochemical (XRF) and magnetic proxies in combination with multivariate statistics has allowed us to fingerprint glacier activity in addition to other processes affecting the sediment record. Evidence from variations in sediment density, validated by changes in Ti concentrations, reveal glaciers remained present in the catchment following deglaciation prior to 11,300 cal BP, culminating in a Holocene maximum between 9.6 and 9.5 ka cal BP. Correspondence with freshwater pulses from Hudson Strait suggests that Early Holocene glacier advances were driven by the melting Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). We find that glaciers disappeared from the catchment between 7.4 and 6.7 ka cal BP, following a late Hypsithermal. Glacier reformation around 4250 cal BP marks the onset of the Neoglacial, supporting previous findings. Between 3380 and 3230 cal BP, we find evidence for a previously unreported centennial-scale glacier advance. Both events are concurrent with well-documented episodes of North Atlantic cooling. We argue that this brief forcing created suitable conditions for glaciers to reform in the catchment against a background of gradual orbital cooling. These findings highlight the

  8. Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene climate variability in the Eifel region evaluated with stable isotopes

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    Kühl, Norbert; Moschen, Robert; Wagner, Stefanie

    2010-05-01

    sediments might strongly react to anthropogenic deforestation, as carbon isotope time series from the adjacent Lake Holzmaar suggest. Reconstructions based on pollen with the pdf-method are robust to the human impact during the last 4000 years, but do not reproduce the fine scale climate variability that can be derived from the stable isotope series (Kühl et al., in press). In contrast, reconstructions on the basis of pollen data show relatively pronounced climate variability (here: January temperature) during the Mid-Holocene, which is known from many other European records. The oxygen isotope time series as available now indicate that at least some of the observed variability indeed reflects climate variability. However, stable carbon isotopes show little concordance. At this stage our results point in the direction that 1) the isotopic composition might reflect a shift in influencing factors during the Holocene, 2) climate trends can robustly be reconstructed with the pdf method and 3) fine scale climate variability can potentially be reconstructed using the pdf-method, given that climate sensitive taxa at their distribution limit are present. The latter two conclusions are of particular importance for the reconstruction of climatic trends and variability of interglacials older than the Holocene, when sites are rare and pollen is often the only suitable proxy in terrestrial records. Kühl, N., Moschen, R., Wagner, S., Brewer, S., Peyron, O., in press. A multiproxy record of Late Holocene natural and anthropogenic environmental change from the Sphagnum peat bog Dürres Maar, Germany: implications for quantitative climate reconstructions based on pollen. J. Quat. Sci., DOI: 10.1002/jqs.1342. Available online. Moschen, R., Kühl, N., Rehberger, I., Lücke, A., 2009. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in sub-fossil Sphagnum: Assessment of their applicability for palaeoclimatology. Chemical Geology 259, 262-272.

  9. EVALUATING SHORT-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE LATE HOLOCENE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

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    Joseph H. Hartman

    1999-09-01

    This literature study investigated methods and areas to deduce climate change and climate patterns, looking for short-term cycle phenomena and the means to interpret them. Many groups are actively engaged in intensive climate-related research. Ongoing research might be (overly) simplified into three categories: (1) historic data on weather that can be used for trend analysis and modeling; (2) detailed geological, biological (subfossil), and analytical (geochemical, radiocarbon, etc.) studies covering the last 10,000 years (about since last glaciation); and (3) geological, paleontological, and analytical (geochemical, radiometric, etc.) studies over millions of years. Of importance is our ultimate ability to join these various lines of inquiry into an effective means of interpretation. At this point, the process of integration is fraught with methodological troubles and misconceptions about what each group can contribute. This project has met its goals to the extent that it provided an opportunity to study resource materials and consider options for future effort toward the goal of understanding the natural climate variation that has shaped our current civilization. A further outcome of this project is a proposed methodology based on ''climate sections'' that provides spatial and temporal correlation within a region. The method would integrate cultural and climate data to establish the climate history of a region with increasing accuracy with progressive study and scientific advancement (e. g., better integration of regional and global models). The goal of this project is to better understand natural climatic variations in the recent past (last 5000 years). The information generated by this work is intended to provide better context within which to examine global climate change. The ongoing project will help to establish a basis upon which to interpret late Holocene short-term climate variability as evidenced in various studies in the northern

  10. Late Holocene climate variability in the southwestern Mediterranean region: an integrated marine and terrestrial geochemical approach

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    C. Martín-Puertas

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A combination of marine (Alboran Sea cores, ODP 976 and TTR 300 G and terrestrial (Zoñar Lake, Andalucia, Spain geochemical proxies provides a high-resolution reconstruction of climate variability and human influence in the southwestern Mediterranean region for the last 4000 years at inter-centennial resolution. Proxies respond to changes in precipitation rather than temperature alone. Our combined terrestrial and marine archive documents a succession of dry and wet periods coherent with the North Atlantic climate signal. A dry period occurred prior to 2.7 cal ka BP – synchronously to the global aridity crisis of the third-millennium BC – and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1.4–0.7 cal ka BP. Wetter conditions prevailed from 2.7 to 1.4 cal ka BP. Hydrological signatures during the Little Ice Age are highly variable but consistent with more humidity than the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, Pb anomalies in sediments at the end of the Bronze Age suggest anthropogenic pollution earlier than the Roman Empire development in the Iberian Peninsula. The Late Holocene climate evolution of the in the study area confirms the see-saw pattern between the eastern and western Mediterranean regions and the higher influence of the North Atlantic dynamics in the western Mediterranean.

  11. Insights Into Deglacial Through Holocene Climate Variability At The Peru-Chile Margin From Very High Sedimentation Rate Marine Cores

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    Chazen, C.; Dejong, H.; Altabet, M.; Herbert, T.

    2007-12-01

    The Peru-Chile upwelling system is situated at the epicenter of the modern ENSO System. The high settling flux of organic materials and poor ventilation of subsurface waters makes the Peru upwelling system one of the world's three major oxygen minimum/denitrification zones (Codispoti and Christensen, 1985). Extremely high sedimentation rates and permanent hypoxic/anoxic subsurface waters create excellent conditions for the preservation of organic matter. Despite the significance of this region in regards to paleoceanography and paleoclimatology, relatively little work has been done to characterize past Peruvian climate because carbonate dissolution hinders the use of conventional paleoclimate methods and hiatuses frequently interrupt the record. However, using nitrogen isotopes and alkenone paleothermometry on multiple sediment cores from the Margin we have managed to overcome many of these challenges to create a nearly continuous SST (Uk`37), productivity (C37total), biogenic opal and denitrification (δN15) record from the LGM through the late Holocene. Remarkably, recent work has revealed an annually laminated core, which spans from 1.4-8.0ka uninterrupted, providing a unique window into Holocene climate variability. Modern-day upwelling induced climate at the Peru-Chile margin is characterized by cold temperatures (21.5°C) high productivity and strong denitrification, which has persisted since the mid Holocene (4ka). The mid Holocene also marks the beginning of a dramatic increase in seasonality and ENSO variability consistent with other tropical climate indicators. Climate variability in the Mid-early Holocene shows a distinctively different pattern from that of the late Holocene; unproductive warm temperatures persist through the early Holocene in what can be described as a permanent El Niño-like state. Early tropical warming occurred near 17ka along with an unprecedented increase in denitrification, which is decoupled from local productivity. Early onset

  12. Holocene glacier variability: three case studies using an intermediate-complexity climate model

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    Weber, S.L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2003-01-01

    Synthetic glacier length records are generated for the Holocene epoch using a process-based glacier model coupled to the intermediate-complexity climate model ECBilt. The glacier model consists of a massbalance component and an ice-flow component. The climate model is forced by the insolation change

  13. Decadal to millennial time scale climate variability in the Central Mediterranean during the Holocene: a reconstruction based on geochemical proxies from high resolution sedimentary records

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    Goudeau, M.S.

    2014-01-01

    To assess potential anthropogenic contributions to future climate change it is necessary to understand natural climate variability. This can be achieved by studying climate variability during the Holocene, when similar basic climate boundary conditions persisted as today. During this period climate

  14. Effects of late Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic stressors on the vegetation of the Maya highlands

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    Franco-Gaviria, F.; Correa-Metrio, A.; Cordero-Oviedo, C.; López-Pérez, M.; Cárdenes-Sandí, G. M.; Romero, F. M.

    2018-06-01

    Climate variability and human activities have shaped the vegetation communities of the Maya region of southern Mexico and Central America on centennial to millennial timescales. Most research efforts in the region have focused on the lowlands, with relatively little known about the environmental history of the regional highlands. Here we present data from two sediment sequences collected from lakes in the highlands of Chiapas, Mexico. Our aim was to disentangle the relative contributions of climate and human activities in the development of regional vegetation during the late Holocene. The records reveal a long-term trend towards drier conditions with superimposed centennial-scale droughts. A declining moisture trend from 3400 to 1500 cal yr BP is consistent with previously reported southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, whereas periodic droughts were probably a consequence of drivers such as El Niño. These conditions, together with dense human occupation, converted the vegetation from forest to more open systems. According to the paleoecological records, cultural abandonment of the area occurred ca. 1500 cal yr BP, favoring forest recovery that was somewhat limited by low moisture availability. About 600 cal yr BP, wetter conditions promoted the establishment of modern montane cloud forests, which consist of a diverse mixture of temperate and tropical elements. The vegetation types that occupied the study area during the last few millennia have remained within the envelope defined by the modern vegetation mosaic. This finding highlights the importance of microhabitats in the maintenance biodiversity through time, even under scenarios of high climate variability and anthropogenic pressure.

  15. Tracking climate variability in the western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene: a multiproxy approach

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    V. Nieto-Moreno

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate variability in the western Mediterranean is reconstructed for the last 4000 yr using marine sediments recovered in the west Algerian-Balearic Basin, near the Alboran Basin. Fluctuations in chemical and mineralogical sediment composition as well as grain size distribution are linked to fluvial-eolian oscillations, changes in redox conditions and paleocurrent intensity. Multivariate analyses allowed us to characterize three main groups of geochemical and mineralogical proxies determining the sedimentary record of this region. These three statistical groups were applied to reconstruct paleoclimate conditions at high resolution during the Late Holocene. An increase in riverine input (fluvial-derived elements – Rb/Al, Ba/Al, REE/Al, Si/Al, Ti/Al, Mg/Al and K/Al ratios, and a decrease in Saharan eolian input (Zr/Al ratio depict the Roman Humid Period and the Little Ice Age, while drier environmental conditions are recognized during the Late Bronze Age-Iron Age, the Dark Ages and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, faster bottom currents and more energetic hydrodynamic conditions for the former periods are evidenced by enhanced sortable silt (10-63 μm and quartz content, and by better oxygenated bottom waters – as reflected by decreasing redox-sensitive elements (V/Al, Cr/Al, Ni/Al and Zn/Al ratios. In contrast, opposite paleoceanographic conditions are distinguished during the latter periods, i.e. the Late Bronze Age-Iron Age, the Dark Ages and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Although no Ba excess was registered, other paleoproductivity indicators (total organic carbon content, Br/Al ratio, and organometallic ligands such as U and Cu display the highest values during the Roman Humid Period, and together with increasing preservation of organic matter, this period exhibits by far the most intense productivity of the last 4000 yr. Fluctuations in detrital input into the basin as the main process managing deposition, reflected by the

  16. Punctuated Holocene climate of Vestfirðir, Iceland, linked to internal/external variables and oceanographic conditions

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    Harning, David J.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.

    2018-06-01

    Emerging Holocene paleoclimate datasets point to a non-linear response of Icelandic climate against a background of steady orbital cooling. The Vestfirðir peninsula (NW Iceland) is an ideal target for continued climate reconstructions due to the presence of a small ice cap (Drangajökull) and numerous lakes, which provide two independent means to evaluate existing Icelandic climate records and to constrain the forcing mechanisms behind centennial-scale cold anomalies. Here, we present new evidence for Holocene expansions of Drangajökull based on 14C dates from entombed dead vegetation as well as two continuous Holocene lake sediment records. Lake sediments were analyzed for both bulk physical (MS) and biological (%TOC, δ13C, C/N, and BSi) parameters. Composite BSi and C/N records from the two lakes yield a sub-centennial qualitative perspective on algal (diatom) productivity and terrestrial landscape stability, respectively. The Vestfirðir lake proxies suggest initiation of the Holocene Thermal Maximum by ∼8.8 ka with subsequent and pronounced cooling not apparent until ∼3 ka. Synchronous periods of reduced algal productivity and accelerated landscape instability point to cold anomalies centered at ∼8.2, 6.6, 4.2, 3.3, 2.3, 1.8, 1, and 0.25 ka. Triggers for cold anomalies are linked to variable combinations of freshwater pulses, low total solar irradiance, explosive and effusive volcanism, and internal modes of climate variability, with cooling likely sustained by ocean/sea-ice feedbacks. The climate evolution reflected by our glacial and organic proxy records corresponds closely to marine records from the North Iceland Shelf.

  17. Multiproxy records of Holocene climate and glacier variability from sediment cores in the Cordillera Vilcabamba of southern Peru

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    Schweinsberg, A. D.; Licciardi, J. M.; Rodbell, D. T.; Stansell, N.; Tapia, P. M.

    2012-12-01

    Sediments contained in glacier-fed lakes and bogs provide continuous high-resolution records of glacial activity, and preserve multiproxy evidence of Holocene climate change. Tropical glacier fluctuations offer critical insight on regional paleoclimatic trends and controls, however, continuous sediment records of past tropical climates are limited. Recent cosmogenic 10Be surface exposure ages of moraine sequences in the Cordillera Vilcabamba of southern Peru (13°20'S latitude) reveal a glacial culmination during the early Holocene and a less extensive glaciation coincident with the Little Ice Age of the Northern Hemisphere. Here we supplement the existing 10Be moraine chronology with the first continuous records of multiproxy climate data in this mountain range from sediment cores recovered from bogs in direct stratigraphic contact with 10Be-dated moraines. Radiocarbon-dated sedimentological changes in a 2-meter long bog core reveal that the Holocene is characterized by alternating inorganic and organic-rich laminae, suggesting high-frequency climatic variability. Carbon measurements, bulk density, and bulk sedimentation rates are used to derive a record of clastic sediment flux that serves as a proxy indicator of former glacier activity. Preliminary analyses of the bog core reveal approximately 70 diatom taxa that indicate both rheophilic and lentic environments. Initial results show a general decrease in magnetic susceptibility and clastic flux throughout the early to mid-Holocene, which suggests an interval of deglaciation. An episode of high clastic flux from 3.8 to 2.0 ka may reflect a late Holocene glacial readvance. Volcanic glass fragments and an anomalous peak in magnetic susceptibility may correspond to the historical 1600 AD eruption of Huaynaputina. Ten new bog and lake sediment cores were collected during the 2012 field expedition and analytical measurements are underway. Ongoing efforts are focused on analyzing diatom assemblage data, developing

  18. Blue Carbon Sequestration in Florida Coastal Wetlands - Response to Recent Climate Change and Holocene Climate Variability

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    Vaughn, D.; Bianchi, T. S.; Osborne, T.; Shields, M. R.; Kenney, W.

    2017-12-01

    Intertidal forests and salt marshes represent a major component of Florida's coasts and are essential to the health and integrity of coastal Florida's ecological and economic systems. In addition, coastal wetlands have been recognized as highly efficient carbon sinks with their ability to store carbon on time scales from centuries to millennia. Although losses of salt marshes, mangroves, and seagrass beds through both natural and anthropogenic forces are threatening their ability to act as carbon sinks globally, the poleward encroachment of mangroves into higher latitude salt marshes may lead to regional increases in carbon sequestration as mangroves store more carbon than salt marshes. For Florida, this encroachment of mangroves into salt marshes is prominent along the northern coasts where fewer freeze events have coincided with an increase in mangrove extent over the past several decades. Soil cores collected from a northeastern Florida wetland will allow us to determine whether the recent poleward encroachment of mangroves into northern Florida salt marshes has led to an increase in belowground carbon storage. The soil cores, which are approximately two to three meters in length, will also provide the first known record of carbon storage in a northern Florida wetland during the Holocene. Initial results from the top 40 cm, which represents 100 years based on dating of other northern Florida wetland cores, suggest more carbon is currently being stored within the transition between marsh and mangrove than in areas currently covered by salt marsh vegetation or mangroves. The transitional zone also has a much larger loss of carbon within the top 40 cm compared to the mangrove and marsh cores. Lignin-based degradation indices along with other biomarker data and 210Pb/137Cs ages will be presented to demonstrate how much of this loss of carbon may be related to degradation and how much may be related to changes in carbon sources.

  19. Holocene climate variability in the western Mediterranean through a multiproxy analysis from Padul peat bog (Sierra Nevada, Spain)

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    Ramos-Román, María J.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Camuera, Jon; García-Alix, Antonio; Anderson, R. Scott; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Sachse, Dirk

    2017-04-01

    The Iberian Peninsula, located in the Mediterranean area, is an interesting location for paleoclimate studies due to its geographic situation between arid and humid climates. Sediments from peat bogs and lakes from Sierra Nevada, in southeastern Iberian Peninsula, have been very informative in terms of how vegetation and wetland environments were impacted by Holocene climate change. These studies are essential if we want to understand the past climate change in the area, which is the key to identify the possible environmental response of the Sierra Nevada ecosystems to future climate scenarios. Padul basin, located in the southwest of the Sierra Nevada mountain range, contains a ca. 100 m-thick peat bog sedimentary sequence that was deposited during the past 1 Ma making this area interesting for paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic reconstructions. A new 43 m-long sedimentary record has recently been retrieved from the Padul peat bog. In this study we have developed a multiproxy analysis of the Holocene part of the Padul-15-05 core including pollen analysis, XRF-core scanner, magnetic susceptibility and organic geochemistry, supported by an age control based on AMS radiocarbon dates, providing with information about vegetation and climate variability during the past 9.9 cal ka BP. This multiproxy reconstruction of the Padul-15-05 evidences the Mediterranean as a sensitive area with respect to global-scale climate system, showing relevant climate episodes such as the ca. 8, 7.5, 6.5 and 5.5 cal ka BP events during the early and middle Holocene. The trend to aridification to the late Holocene is interrupted by more arid and humid periods as the Iberian Roman Humid Period (from ca. 3 to 1.6 cal ka BP), the Dark Ages (from ca. 1.5 to 1.1 cal ka BP), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (from ca. 1.1 to 1.3 cal ka BP) and the Little Ice Age period (from ca. 500 to 100 cal yr BP).

  20. Palaeoenvironmental transfer functions in a bayesian framework with application to holocene climate variability in the near east

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoelzel, C. [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.

    2006-07-01

    This thesis presents the development of statistical climatological-botanical transfer functions in order to provide reconstructions of Holocene climate variability in the Near East region. Two classical concepts, the biomisation as well as the indicator taxa approach, are translated into a Bayesian network. Fossil pollen spectra of laminated sediments from the Ein Gedi location at the western shoreline of the Dead Sea and from the crater lake Birkat Ram in the northern Golan serve as proxy data, covering the past 10000 and 6500 years, respectively. The climatological variables are winter temperature, summer temperature, and annual precipitation, obtained from the 0.5 x 0.5 degree climatology CRU TS 1.0. The Bayesian biome model is based on the three main vegetation territories, the Mediterranean, the Irano-Turanian, and the Saharo-Arabian territory, which are digitized on the same grid as the climate data. From their spatial extend, a classification in the phase space is described by estimating the conditional probability for the existence of a certain biome given the climate. These biome specific likelihood functions are modelled by a generalised linear model, including second order monomials of the climate variables. A statistical mixture model is applied to the biome probabilities as estimated by the Ein Gedi data, resulting in a posterior probability density function for the three dimensional climate state vector. The indicator taxa model is based on the distribution of 15 Mediterranean taxa. Their spatial extend allows to estimate the taxon specific likelihood functions. In this case, they are conditional probability density functions for the climate state vector given the existence of a certain taxon. In order to address the general problem of multivariate non-normally distributed populations, multivariate normal Copulas are used, which allow to create distribution functions with gamma as well as normal marginal distributions. Applying the model to the Birkat

  1. Holocene climate variability revealed by oxygen isotope analysis of Sphagnum cellulose from Walton Moss, northern England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, T. J.; Barber, K. E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Loader, N. J.; Marshall, J. D.; Crowley, S. F.; Fisher, E. H.

    2010-07-01

    Stable isotope analyses of Sphagnum alpha-cellulose, precipitation and bog water from three sites across northwestern Europe (Raheenmore, Ireland, Walton Moss, northern England and Dosenmoor, northern Germany) over a total period of 26 months were used to investigate the nature of the climatic signal recorded by Sphagnum moss. The δ18O values of modern alpha-cellulose tracked precipitation more closely than bog water, with a mean isotopic fractionation factor αcellulose-precipitation of 1.0274 ± 0.001 (1 σ) (≈27‰). Sub-samples of isolated Sphagnum alpha-cellulose were subsequently analysed from core WLM22, Walton Moss, northern England yielding a Sphagnum-specific isotope record spanning the last 4300 years. The palaeo-record, calibrated using the modern data, provides evidence for large amplitude variations in the estimated oxygen isotope composition of precipitation during the mid- to late Holocene. Estimates of palaeotemperature change derived from statistical relationships between modern surface air temperatures and δ18O precipitation values for the British Isles give unrealistically large variation in comparison to proxies from other archives. We conclude that use of such relationships to calibrate mid-latitude palaeo-data must be undertaken with caution. The δ18O record from Sphagnum cellulose was highly correlated with a palaeoecologically-derived index of bog surface wetness (BSW), suggesting a common climatic driver.

  2. Holocene climate variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Weldeab

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We established a multi-proxy time series comprising analyses of major elements in bulk sediments, Sr and Nd isotopes, grain size of terrigenous fraction, and δ18O and δ13C in tests of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral from a marine sediment sequence recovered off the Orange River. The records reveal coherent patterns of variability that reflect changes in wind strength, precipitation over the river catchments, and upwelling of cold and nutrient-rich coastal waters off western South Africa. The wettest episode of the Holocene in the winter rainfall zone (WRZ of South Africa occurred during the "Little Ice Age" (700–100 cal years BP most likely in response to a northward shift of the austral westerlies. Wet phases and strengthened coastal water upwellings are companied by a decrease of Agulhas water leakage into the South Atlantic and a reduced dust incursion over Antarctica, as indicated in previous studies. A continuous aridification trend in the WRZ and a weakening of the southern Benguela Upwelling System (BUS between 9000 and 5500 cal years BP parallel with increase of dust deposition over Antarctica and an enhanced leakage of warm Agulhas water into the eastern South Atlantic. The temporal relationship between precipitation changes in the WRZ, the thermal state of the coastal surface water, and leakage of warm water in the South Atlantic, and variation of dust incursion over Antarctica suggests a causal link that most likely was related to latitudinal shifts of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. Our results of the mid-Holocene time interval may serve as an analogue to a possible long-term consequence of the current and future southward shift of the westerlies. Furthermore, warming of the coastal surface water as a result of warm Agulhas water incursion into the southern BUS may affect coastal fog formation.

  3. Tracking climate variability in the western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene: A multiproxy approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieto-Moreno, V.; Martínez-Ruiz, F.; Giralt, S.; Jimenéz-Espejo, F.; Gallego-Torres, D.; Rodrigo-Gámiz, M.; Garcia-Orellana, J.; Ortega-Huertas, M.; de Lange, G.J.

    2011-01-01

    Climate variability in the western Mediterranean is reconstructed for the last 4000 yr using marine sediments recovered in the west Algerian-Balearic basin, near the Alboran basin. Fluctuations in chemical and mineralogical sediment composition as well as grain size distribution are linked to

  4. Latest Holocene Climate Variability revealed by a high-resolution multiple Proxy Record off Lisbon (Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrantes, F.; Lebreiro, S.; Ferreira, A.; Gil, I.; Jonsdottir, H.; Rodrigues, T.; Kissel, C.; Grimalt, J.

    2003-04-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is known to have a major influence on the wintertime climate of the Atlantic basin and surrounding countries, determining precipitation and wind conditions at mid-latitudes. A comparison of Hurrel's NAO index to the mean winter (January-March) discharge of the Iberian Tagus River reveals a good negative correlation to negative NAO, while the years of largest upwelling anomalies, as referred in the literature, appear to be in good agreement with positive NAO. On this basis, a better understanding of the long-term variability of the NAO and Atlantic climate variability can be gained from high-resolution climate records from the Lisbon area. Climate variability of the last 2,000 years is assessed through a multiple proxy study of sedimentary sequences recovered from the Tagus prodelta deposition center, off Lisbon (Western Iberia). Physical properties, XRF and magnetic properties from core logging, grain size, δ18O, TOC, CaCO3, total alkenones, n-alkanes, alkenone SST, diatoms, benthic and planktonic foraminiferal assemblage compositions and fluxes are the proxies employed. The age model for site D13902 is based on AMS C-14 dates from mollusc and planktonic foraminifera shells, the reservoir correction for which was obtained by dating 3 pre-bomb, mollusc shells from the study area. Preliminary results indicate a Little Ice Age (LIA - 1300 - 1600 AD) alkenone derived SSTs around 15 degC followed by a sharp and rapid increase towards 19 degC. In spite the strong variability observed for most records, this low temperature interval is marked by a general increase in organic carbon, total alkenone concentration, diatom and foraminiferal abundances, as well as an increase in the sediment fine fraction and XRF determined Fe content, pointing to important river input and higher productivity. The Medieval Warm Period (1080 - 1300 AD) is characterized by 17-18 degC SSTs, increased mean grain size, but lower magnetic susceptibility and Fe

  5. Reconstructing Late Holocene Climate Variability in North East China From Varved Maar Lake Sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panizzo, V. N.; Mackay, A. W.; Rioual, P.; Chu, G.; Leng, M. J.

    2008-12-01

    Reconstructing climatic variability over the past c. 2 ka years is recognised as a key PAGES timeframe (focus 2). However few high-resolution records exist from the climate sensitive region of N) China which receives the majority of its precipitation from the east Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Interactions between the EASM and the global climate system have great resonance. Such examples include how the EASM responded to changes in climate over the documented e.g. "Medieval Warm Period" (c. AD 900 - 1300), "Little Ice Age" (c. AD 1350-1850) and recent warming. At present, literature remains contradictory to such environmental changes in NE China over this time-frame due to poor chronological control, low resolution of existing studies and even due to the inexact terminology of these climatic periods. Xiaolongwan Lake (XLW) is a small, closed, maar lake located in the Long Gang Volcanic Field, NE China (42°18'N; 126°19'E). It is at an elevation of 655 m a.s.l. with a maximum depth of 15 m. A varve chronology has been created for a 143 cm composite core (2 cores collected in 2006), and here we present diatoms and organic geochemistry (δ13C, TOC, C/N) evidence for environmental change over the past c. 2 ka years. Results show a gradual change in diatom species, moving from a composition where opportunistic species (e.g. Achnanthidium minutissimum) dominate (between c. 100 BC to 500 years AD) at the beginning of the record to one comprised of benthic/epiphytic species (e.g. Staurosira construens var venter, Punctastriata discoidea, Gomphonema parvulum). The introduction after c. 1850 years AD of the planktonic diatom species, Discotella woltereckii, not previously seen in the record, coincides with recent warming. This may be a response to changing limnological conditions, such as decreasing duration of lake ice-cover. Bulk organic δ13C results conducted on a short core collected from XLW in summer 2007, show that over the past c. 350 years there is a distinct

  6. Chrysophyte cysts from lake sediments reveal the submillennial winter/spring climate variability in the northwestern Mediterranean region throughout the Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pla, Sergi [Queen' s University, PEARL, Department of Biology, Kingston, ON (Canada); Catalan, Jordi [CSIC, CSIC-UB Limnology Group, Centre for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB), Blanes (Spain)

    2005-02-01

    In the last decade, much effort was dedicated to the reconstruction of past climate at high temporal resolution. Here, we show the suitability of chrysophyte cysts from lake sediments for revealing continental climate variability when used in sensitive sites, such as those in high mountains. We demonstrate that altitude is a main factor influencing the present distribution of chrysophytes and develop a transfer function to evaluate the local ''altitude anomaly'' on a lake site throughout time. Based on our knowledge of chrysophyte ecology, the altitude anomalies are interpreted as winter/spring climate signatures. The method was applied to a Holocene record from a lake in the Pyrenees showing submillennial climatic variability in this northwestern Mediterranean zone. A warming trend was present from the early Holocene to 4 kyear BP. Comparison with pollen-based reconstructions of summer temperatures denoted a contrasting decrease in continentality between the two parts of the Holocene. Oscillations of 1 cycle per ca. 2,000 years appeared throughout the record. The warmest Holocene winters were recorded during the Medieval Warm Period at ca. AD900 and 450 and the Roman Warm Period (2.7-2.4 kyear BP). Winters in the period AD1,050-1,175 were inferred to be as cold as in the Little Ice Age. The period between 3 and 7 kyear BPshowed lower intensity in the fluctuations than in early and late Holocene. The cold event, 8,200 years ago, appeared embedded in a warm fluctuation. Another cold fluctuation was recorded around 9 kyear BP, which is in agreement with Irish and Greenland records. (orig.)

  7. Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic impacts from Lago Paixban, a perennial wetland in Peten, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, David B.; Hansen, Richard D.; Byrne, Roger; Anderson, Lysanna; Schreiner, T.

    2016-01-01

    Analyses of an ~ 6 m sediment core from Lago Paixban in Peten, Guatemala, document the complex evolution of a perennial wetland over the last 10,300 years. The basal sediment is comprised of alluvial/colluvial fill deposited in the early Holocene. The absence of pollen and gastropods in the basal sediments suggests intermittently dry conditions until ~ 9000 cal yr. BP (henceforth BP) when the basin began to hold water perennially. Lowland tropical forest taxa dominated the local vegetation at this time. A distinct band of carbonate dating to ~ 8200 BP suggests regionally dry conditions, possibly associated with the 8.2 ka event. Wetter conditions during the Holocene Thermal Maximum are indicated by evidence of a raised water level and an open water lake. The timing of this interval coincides with strengthening of the Central American Monsoon. An abrupt change at 5500 BP involved the development of a sawgrass marsh and onset of peat deposition. The lowest recorded water levels date to 5500–4500 BP. Pollen, isotope, geochemical, and sedimentological data indicate that the coring site was near the edge of the marsh during this period. A rise in the water table after 4500 BP persisted until around 3500 BP. Clay marl deposition from 3500 to 210 BP corresponds to the period of Maya settlement. An increase in δ13C, the presence of Zea pollen, and a reduction in the percentage of forest taxa pollen indicate agricultural activity at this time. In contrast to several nearby paleoenvironmental studies, proxy evidence from Lago Paixban indicates human presence through the Classic/Postclassic period transition (~ 1000 BP) and persisting until the arrival of Europeans. Cessation of human activity around 210 BP resulted in local afforestation and the re-establishment of the current sawgrass marsh at Lago Paixban.

  8. Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic impacts from Lago Paixban, a perennial wetland in Peten, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, David; Hansen, Richard D.; Byrne, Roger; Anderson, Lysanna; Schreiner, Thomas

    2016-03-01

    Analyses of an 6 m sediment core from Lago Paixban in Peten, Guatemala, document the complex evolution of a perennial wetland over the last 10,300 years. The basal sediment is comprised of alluvial/colluvial fill deposited in the early Holocene. The absence of pollen and gastropods in the basal sediments suggests intermittently dry conditions until 9000 cal yr. BP (henceforth BP) when the basin began to hold water perennially. Lowland tropical forest taxa dominated the local vegetation at this time. A distinct band of carbonate dating to 8200 BP suggests regionally dry conditions, possibly associated with the 8.2 ka event. Wetter conditions during the Holocene Thermal Maximum are indicated by evidence of a raised water level and an open water lake. The timing of this interval coincides with strengthening of the Central American Monsoon. An abrupt change at 5500 BP involved the development of a sawgrass marsh and onset of peat deposition. The lowest recorded water levels date to 5500-4500 BP. Pollen, isotope, geochemical, and sedimentological data indicate that the coring site was near the edge of the marsh during this period. A rise in the water table after 4500 BP persisted until around 3500 BP. Clay marl deposition from 3500 to 210 BP corresponds to the period of Maya settlement. An increase in δ13C, the presence of Zea pollen, and a reduction in the percentage of forest taxa pollen indicate agricultural activity at this time. In contrast to several nearby paleoenvironmental studies, proxy evidence from Lago Paixban indicates human presence through the Classic/Postclassic period transition ( 1000 BP) and persisting until the arrival of Europeans. Cessation of human activity around 210 BP resulted in local afforestation and the re-establishment of the current sawgrass marsh at Lago Paixban.

  9. Late Holocene climate variability from Lake Pupuke maar, Auckland, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Striewski, B.; Shulmeister, J.; Augustinus, P. C.; Soderholm, J.

    2013-10-01

    Spectral analyses of quasi-annual organo-diatomaceous laminae couplets in an Auckland maar lake indicate brief (sub-decadal scale) episodes with strong spectral power and long periods of weak to no spectral power between c. 1700 to c. 550 cal. yr BP. Laminae couplet thickness appears to be a function of changes in wind flow over the basin, with enhanced wind flow deepening the mixing zone and providing additional nutrients for laminae formation. Aeolian dust from Australia amplifies the wind signal. Spectral signals in the high power episodes are focused in Auckland climate whereby strongly negative (positive) ENSO are associated with enhanced (diminished) SW airflow over Auckland. ENSO events interact in the modern climate and the spectral results indicate that this is the case when spectral power is strong in the laminae. These results highlight strong but intermittent ENSO activity between 600 and 1400 cal. yr BP.

  10. Reconstructing Holocene (sub)tropical climate and cyclone variability using geochemical proxies

    OpenAIRE

    van Soelen, E.E.

    2012-01-01

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for a warming trend that cannot easily be reversed. This warming trend is expected to have a large impact on global weather patterns and local environmental conditions, for example by changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise and increasing tropical cyclone activity. Therefore, (sub)tropical coastal regions are expected to be heavily impacted by future climate change. To improve our understanding of the possible consequences of futu...

  11. Holocene climate variability in arid Central Asia as revealed from high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analyses of laminated sediments from Lake Chatyr Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauterbach, S.; Plessen, B.; Dulski, P.; Mingram, J.; Prasad, S.

    2013-12-01

    A pronounced trend from a predominantly wet climate during the early Holocene towards significantly drier conditions since the mid-Holocene, mainly attributed to the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), is documented in numerous palaeoclimate records from the monsoon-influenced parts of Asia, e.g. the Tibetan Plateau and north- and southeastern China. In contrast, climate in the adjacent regions of mid-latitude arid Central Asia, located north and northwest of the Tibetan Plateau, is supposed to have been characterized by pronounced dry conditions during the early Holocene, wet conditions during the mid-Holocene and a rather moderate drying during the late Holocene, which is mainly attributed to the complex interplay between the mid-latitude Westerlies and the ASM. However, although mid-latitude Central Asia thus might represent a key region for the understanding of teleconnections between the ASM system and the Westerlies, knowledge about past climate development in this region is still ambiguous due to the limited number of high-resolution palaeoclimate records. Hence, new well-dated and highly resolved palaeoclimate records from this region are expected to provide important information about spatio-temporal changes in the regional interplay between Westerlies and ASM and thus aid the understanding of global climate teleconnections. As a part of the project CADY (Central Asian Climate Dynamics), aiming at reconstructing past climatic and hydrological variability in Central Asia, a sediment core of about 6.25 m length has been recovered from alpine Lake Chatyr Kol (40°36' N, 75°14' E, 3530 m a. s. l., surface area ~170 km2, maximum depth ~20 m), located in the Central Tian Shan of Kyrgyzstan. Sediment microfacies analysis on large-scale petrographic thin sections reveals continuously sub-mm scale laminated sediments throughout the record except for the uppermost ca. 60 cm. Microsedimentological characterization of these laminae, which are most probably

  12. Impact of millennial-scale Holocene climate variability on eastern North American terrestrial ecosystems: Pollen-based climatic reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.; Korejwo, D.A.; Meyers, S.R.

    2005-01-01

    We present paleoclimatic evidence for a series of Holocene millennial-scale cool intervals in eastern North America that occurred every ???1400 years and lasted ???300-500 years, based on pollen data from Chesapeake Bay in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The cool events are indicated by significant decreases in pine pollen, which we interpret as representing decreases in January temperatures of between 0.2??and 2??C. These temperature decreases include excursions during the Little Ice Age (???1300-1600 AD) and the 8 ka cold event. The timing of the pine minima is correlated with a series of quasi-periodic cold intervals documented by various proxies in Greenland, North Atlantic, and Alaskan cores and with solar minima interpreted from cosmogenic isotope records. These events may represent changes in circumpolar vortex size and configuration in response to intervals of decreased solar activity, which altered jet stream patterns to enhance meridional circulation over eastern North America. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Climate variability during the deglaciation and Holocene in a high-altitude alpine lake deduced from the sedimentary record from Laguna Seca, Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camuera, Jon; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; José Ramos-Román, María; García-Alix, Antonio; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco; Anderson, R. Scott

    2017-04-01

    High-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF), magnetic susceptibility (MS), color and lithological analyses have been carried out on a 3.6 m-long sediment core from Laguna Seca, a high-elevation dry lake from Sierra Nevada mountain range, southern Spain. This is the longest sedimentary record retrieved from an alpine lake in southern Iberian Peninsula. Besides, alpine lakes are very sensitive environments to climate changes and previous studies showed that Laguna Seca could provide an excellent record to identify millennial-scale climate variations during deglaciation and the whole Holocene. XRF analyses, in particular high calcium and low K/Ca ratios, show aridity phases, very well represented during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Younger Dryas (YD). Arid events are also shown at ca. 8.1 ka BP, ca. 4.4 ka BP and the latest Holocene. On the other hand, negative values in calcium and positive values in K/Ca appear in the Bølling-Allerød (BA) and during the early Holocene until ca. 6 ka BP, indicating more humidity and higher run-off. A progressive aridification trend is also observed in the Holocene, changing from more humid conditions during the early Holocene to more aridity during the late Holocene.

  14. Impact of Late Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic activities on Biscayne Bay (Florida, U.S.A.): evidence from diatoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wachnicka, Anna; Gaiser, Evelyn; Wingard, Lynn; Briceño, Henry; Harlem, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Shallow marine ecosystems are experiencing significant environmental alterations as a result of changing climate and increasing human activities along coasts. Intensive urbanization of the southeast Florida coast and intensification of climate change over the last few centuries changed the character of coastal ecosystems in the semi-enclosed Biscayne Bay, Florida. In order to develop management policies for the Bay, it is vital to obtain reliable scientific evidence of past ecological conditions. The long-term records of subfossil diatoms obtained from No Name Bank and Featherbed Bank in the Central Biscayne Bay, and from the Card Sound Bank in the neighboring Card Sound, were used to study the magnitude of the environmental change caused by climate variability and water management over the last ~ 600 yr. Analyses of these records revealed that the major shifts in the diatom assemblage structures at No Name Bank occurred in 1956, at Featherbed Bank in 1966, and at Card Sound Bank in 1957. Smaller magnitude shifts were also recorded at Featherbed Bank in 1893, 1942, 1974 and 1983. Most of these changes coincided with severe drought periods that developed during the cold phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or when AMO was in warm phase and PDO was in the cold phase. Only the 1983 change coincided with an unusually wet period that developed during the warm phases of ENSO and PDO. Quantitative reconstructions of salinity using the weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) diatom-based salinity model revealed a gradual increase in salinity at the three coring locations over the last ~ 600 yr, which was primarily caused by continuously rising sea level and in the last several decades also by the reduction of the amount of freshwater inflow from the mainland. Concentration of sediment total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) increased in the

  15. Late-glacial and Holocene Vegetation and Climate Variability, Including Major Droughts, in the Sky Lakes Region of Southeastern New York State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menking, Kirsten M.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Anderson, Roger Y.

    2012-01-01

    Sediment cores from Lakes Minnewaska and Mohonk in the Shawangunk Mountains of southeastern New York were analyzed for pollen, plantmacrofossils, macroscopic charcoal, organic carbon content, carbon isotopic composition, carbon/nitrogen ratio, and lithologic changes to determine the vegetation and landscape history of the greater Catskill Mountain region since deglaciation. Pollen stratigraphy generally matches the New England pollen zones identified by Deevey (1939) and Davis (1969), with boreal genera (Picea, Abies) present during the late Pleistocene yielding to a mixed Pinus, Quercus and Tsuga forest in the early Holocene. Lake Minnewaska sediments record the Younger Dryas and possibly the 8.2 cal kyr BP climatic events in pollen and sediment chemistry along with an 1400 cal yr interval of wet conditions (increasing Tsuga and declining Quercus) centered about 6400 cal yr BP. BothMinnewaska andMohonk reveal a protracted drought interval in themiddle Holocene, 5700-4100 cal yr BP, during which Pinus rigida colonized the watershed, lake levels fell, and frequent fires led to enhanced hillslope erosion. Together, the records show at least three wet-dry cycles throughout the Holocene and both similarities and differences to climate records in New England and central New York. Drought intervals raise concerns for water resources in the New York City metropolitan area and may reflect a combination of enhanced La Niña, negative phase NAO, and positive phase PNA climatic patterns and/or northward shifts of storm tracks.

  16. Sources of Holocene variability of oxygen isotopes in paleoclimate archives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. LeGrande

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Variability in water isotopes has been captured in numerous archives and used to infer past climate changes. Here we examine water isotope variability over the course of the Holocene using the water-isotope enabled, coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, GISS ModelE-R. Eight Holocene time slices, ~1000 years apart are simulated and driven by estimated changes in orbital configuration, greenhouse gases, and ice sheet extent. We find that simulated water isotope archives match well with those seen in ice cores, ocean sediment cores, and speleothems. The climate changes associated with the water isotope changes, however, are more complex than simple modern spatial slope interpretations might suggest. In particular, water isotope variability in Asian speleothems is linked to alterations in landward water vapor transport, not local precipitation, and ice sheet changes over North America lead to the masking of temperature signals in Summit, Greenland. Salinity-seawater isotope variability is complicated by inter-ocean basin exchanges of water vapor. Water isotopes do reflect variability in the hydrology, but are better interpreted in terms of regional hydrological cycle changes rather than as indicators of local climate.

  17. Integrating the EMPD with an Alpine altitudinal training set to reconstruct climate variables in Holocene pollen records from high-altitude peat bogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlanetto, Giulia; Badino, Federica; Brunetti, Michele; Champvillair, Elena; De Amicis, Mattia; Maggi, Valter; Pini, Roberta; Ravazzi, Cesare; Vallé, Francesca

    2016-04-01

    Temperatures and precipitation are the main environmental factors influencing vegetation and pollen production. Knowing the modern climate optima and tolerances of those plants represented in fossil assemblages and assuming that the relationships between plants and climate in the past are not dissimilar from the modern ones, fossil pollen records offer many descriptors to reconstruct past climate variables. The aim of our work is to investigate the potential of high-altitude pollen records from an Alpine peat bog (TBValter, close to the Ruitor Glacier, Western Italian Alps) for quantitative paleoclimate estimates. The idea behind is that high-altitude ecosystems are more sensitive to climate changes, especially to changes in July temperatures that severely affect the timberline ecotone. Meantime, we met with difficulties when considering the factors involved in pollen dispersal over a complex altitudinal mountain pattern, such as the Alps. We used the EMPD-European Modern Pollen Database (Davis et al., 2013) as modern training set to be compared with our high-altitude fossil site. The EMPD dataset is valuable in that it provides a large geographic coverage of main ecological and climate gradients (at sub-continental scale) but lacks in sampling of altitudinal gradients and high-altitude sites in the Alps. We therefore designed an independent altitudinal training set for the alpine valley hosting our fossil site. 27 sampling plots were selected along a 1700m-elevational transect. In a first step, each plot was provided with (i) 3 moss polsters collected following the guidelines provided by Cañellas-Boltà et al. (2009) and analyzed separately to account for differences in pollen deposition at small scale, (ii) morphometrical parameters obtained through a high-resolution DEM, and (iii) temperature and precipitation were estimated by means of weighted linear regression of the meteorological variable versus elevation, locally evaluated for each site (Brunetti et al

  18. Molecules in the mud: Combining ancient DNA and lipid biomarkers to reconstruct vegetation response to climate variability during the Last Interglacial and the Holocene on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crump, S. E.; Sepúlveda, J.; Bunce, M.; Miller, G. H.

    2017-12-01

    Modern ecological studies are revealing that the "greening" of the Arctic, resulting from a poleward shift in woody vegetation ranges, is already underway. The increasing abundance of shrubs in tundra ecosystems plays an important role in the global climate system through multiple positive feedbacks, yet uncertainty in future predictions of terrestrial vegetation means that climate models are likely not capturing these feedbacks accurately. Recently developed molecular techniques for reconstructing past vegetation and climate allow for a closer look at the paleo-record in order to improve our understanding of tundra community responses to climate variability; our current research focus is to apply these tools to both Last Interglacial and Holocene warm times. Here we present initial results from a small lake on southern Baffin Island spanning the last 7.2 ka. We reconstruct climate with both bulk geochemical and biomarker proxies, primarily using biogenic silica and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) as temperature indicators. We assess shifts in plant community using multivariate analysis of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding data. This combination of approaches reveals that the vegetation community has responded sensitively to early Holocene warmth, Neoglacial cooling, and possibly modern anthropogenic warming. To our knowledge, this represents the first combination of a quantitative, biomarker-based climate reconstruction with a sedaDNA-based paleoecological reconstruction, and offers a glimpse at the potential of these molecular techniques used in tandem.

  19. Holocene and latest Pleistocene climate and glacier fluctuations in Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.; Axford, Yarrow; Ólafsdóttir, Sædís

    2009-10-01

    Multiproxy climate records from Iceland document complex changes in terrestrial climate and glacier fluctuations through the Holocene, revealing some coherent patterns of change as well as significant spatial variability. Most studies on the Last Glacial Maximum and subsequent deglaciation reveal a dynamic Iceland Ice Sheet (IIS) that responded abruptly to changes in ocean currents and sea level. The IIS broke up catastrophically around 15 ka as the Polar Front migrated northward and sea level rose. Indications of regional advance or halt of the glaciers are seen in late Alleröd/early Younger Dryas time and again in PreBoreal time. Due to the apparent rise of relative sea level in Iceland during this time, most sites contain evidence for fluctuating, tidewater glacier termini occupying paleo fjords and bays. The time between the end of the Younger Dryas and the Preboreal was characterized by repeated jökulhlaups that eroded glacial deposits. By 10.3 ka, the main ice sheet was in rapid retreat across the highlands of Iceland. The Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) was reached after 8 ka with land temperatures estimated to be 3 °C higher than the 1961-1990 reference, and net precipitation similar to modern. Such temperatures imply largely ice-free conditions across Iceland in the early to mid-Holocene. Several marine and lacustrine sediment climate proxies record substantial summer temperature depression between 8.5 and 8 ka, but no moraines have been detected from that time. Termination of the HTM and onset of Neoglacial cooling took place sometime after 6 ka with increased glacier activity between 4.5 and 4.0 ka, intensifying between 3.0 and 2.5 ka. Although a distinct warming during the Medieval Warm Period is not dramatically apparent in Icelandic records, the interval from ca AD 0 to 1200 is commonly characterized by relative stability with slow rates of change. The literature most commonly describes Little Ice Age moraines (ca AD 1250-1900) as representing the

  20. Assessing millennial-scale variability during the Holocene: A perspective from the western tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khider, D.; Jackson, C. S.; Stott, L. D.

    2014-03-01

    We investigate the relationship between tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean variability during the Holocene using the stable oxygen isotope and magnesium/calcium records of cooccurring planktonic and benthic foraminifera from a marine sediment core collected in the western equatorial Pacific. The planktonic record exhibits millennial-scale sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations over the Holocene of 0.5°C while the benthic δ18Oc document 0.10‰ millennial-scale changes of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW), a water mass which outcrops in the Southern Ocean. Solar forcing as an explanation for millennial-scale SST variability requires (1) a large climate sensitivity and (2) a long 400 year delayed response, suggesting that if solar forcing is the cause of the variability, it would need to be considerably amplified by processes within the climate system at least at the core location. We also explore the possibility that SST variability arose from volcanic forcing using a simple red noise model. Our best estimates of volcanic forcing falls short of reproducing the amplitude of observed SST variations although it produces power at low-frequency similar to that observed in the MD81 record. Although we cannot totally discount the volcanic and solar forcing hypotheses, we are left to consider that the most plausible source for Holocene millennial-scale variability lies within the climate system itself. In particular, UCDW variability coincided with deep North Atlantic changes, indicating a role for the deep ocean in Holocene millennial-scale variability.

  1. Variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene and possible forcing mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fuzhi; Ma, Chunmei; Zhu, Cheng; Lu, Huayu; Zhang, Xiaojian; Huang, Kangyou; Guo, Tianhong; Li, Kaifeng; Li, Lan; Li, Bing; Zhang, Wenqing

    2018-03-01

    Projecting how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall will change with global warming is essential for human sustainability. Reconstructing Holocene climate can provide critical insight into its forcing and future variability. However, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene summer precipitation are lacking for tropical and subtropical China, which is the core region of the EASM influence. Here we present high-resolution annual and summer rainfall reconstructions covering the whole Holocene based on the pollen record at Xinjie site from the lower Yangtze region. Summer rainfall was less seasonal and 30% higher than modern values at 10-6 cal kyr BP and gradually declined thereafter, which broadly followed the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Over the last two millennia, however, the summer rainfall has deviated from the downward trend of summer insolation. We argue that greenhouse gas forcing might have offset summer insolation forcing and contributed to the late Holocene rainfall anomaly, which is supported by the TraCE-21 ka transient simulation. Besides, tropical sea-surface temperatures could modulate summer rainfall by affecting evaporation of seawater. The rainfall pattern concurs with stalagmite and other proxy records from southern China but differs from mid-Holocene rainfall maximum recorded in arid/semiarid northern China. Summer rainfall in northern China was strongly suppressed by high-northern-latitude ice volume forcing during the early Holocene in spite of high summer insolation. In addition, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation might be responsible for droughts of northern China and floods of southern China during the late Holocene. Furthermore, quantitative rainfall reconstructions indicate that the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations underestimate the magnitude of Holocene precipitation changes. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the Holocene EASM precipitation and potential forcing

  2. A Holocene temperature reconstruction from northern New Zealand: a test of North Atlantic Holocene climate patterns as a global template

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Bos, Valerie; Rees, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Augustinus, Paul

    2017-04-01

    Holocene climate variability has been well defined in the North Atlantic (Walker et al., 2012), but the global extent of this climate change stratigraphy is debatable. If the North Atlantic serves as a global template for Holocene climate, then New Zealand (NZ) is ideally positioned to test this assertion, as it is distal from the northern drivers. Additionally, it is one of the few landmasses in the Southern Hemisphere that is influenced by both sub-tropical and extra-tropical climatic regimes, which may be more important controls in the southern mid-latitudes. Although much work has been done to characterise the Holocene in NZ using pollen, most of these records lack the resolution or sensitivity to determine whether abrupt or short-lived events occurred. The NZ-INTIMATE climate event stratigraphy lacks a type section for the Holocene (Alloway et al., 2007). Records from northern NZ typically show little change, other than a possible early Holocene warming. Here, we present a combined pollen and chironomid temperature reconstruction from Lake Pupuke (northern NZ), the first of its kind in NZ that covers the entire Holocene. By comparing mean annual temperatures reconstructed from fossil pollen and mean summer temperatures inferred from chironomid remains, we can assess changes in seasonality. Mean summer temperature was reconstructed from the chironomid record using a weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) model (n comp = 2, r2booth = 0.77, RMSEP = 1.4°C) developed from an expanded version of Dieffenbacher-Krall et al. (2007)'s chironomid training set. Preliminary results show evidence for cool summers during the early Holocene as well as around the period of the Little Ice Age as defined in the North Atlantic region. These and other climate patterns determined from the Pupuke chironomid and pollen records will be compared with other evidence from northern New Zealand and with the North Atlantic record of Holocene climate variability. References

  3. Holocene environmental changes and climate development in Greenland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engels, Stefan; Helmens, Karin

    2010-12-01

    The primary aim of this report is to give an overview of the Holocene environmental and climatic changes in Greenland and to describe the development of the periglacial environment during the Holocene. Special emphasis is given to the influence of the ice sheet on its surroundings, both in terms of time (with respect to the response of the biosphere to deglaciation or ice sheet proximity) and in space (through the influence of the ice sheet on the regional climate, more specifically on temperature and aridity). Published records are reviewed, and regional trends are summarized. A range of different natural archives is available for such studies, including ice-core data, marine records, and continental sources of information, including peat profiles and lacustrine records. Because of the high number of lakes in all ice-free areas of Greenland, the lacustrine records offer the opportunity to get a spatial overview of past changes in environment and climate as well. This report focuses on (palaeo-) ecological studies, as it is intended to assemble basic information for future studies on adaptation of the biosphere to changes in climate. There is a bias towards pollen- and macro-remain-based reconstructions of past changes, as these dominate performed palaeoecological studies in Greenland; unfortunately, only a limited number of studies exist that include more modern proxies such as diatoms or chironomids (climate-indicators), but where available in the literature, these have been included. The report starts with an introduction where the current climatic and biological zonation of Greenland is discussed together with an overview of the geology of Greenland (on the full geological timescale) in order to put the following sections in perspective. Chapter 2 discusses the ice sheet history of Greenland from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) onward where special emphasis is given to the spatial variability of deglaciation at the onset of the Holocene. To enhance the

  4. Holocene environmental changes and climate development in Greenland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engels, Stefan; Helmens, Karin (Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    The primary aim of this report is to give an overview of the Holocene environmental and climatic changes in Greenland and to describe the development of the periglacial environment during the Holocene. Special emphasis is given to the influence of the ice sheet on its surroundings, both in terms of time (with respect to the response of the biosphere to deglaciation or ice sheet proximity) and in space (through the influence of the ice sheet on the regional climate, more specifically on temperature and aridity). Published records are reviewed, and regional trends are summarized. A range of different natural archives is available for such studies, including ice-core data, marine records, and continental sources of information, including peat profiles and lacustrine records. Because of the high number of lakes in all ice-free areas of Greenland, the lacustrine records offer the opportunity to get a spatial overview of past changes in environment and climate as well. This report focuses on (palaeo-) ecological studies, as it is intended to assemble basic information for future studies on adaptation of the biosphere to changes in climate. There is a bias towards pollen- and macro-remain-based reconstructions of past changes, as these dominate performed palaeoecological studies in Greenland; unfortunately, only a limited number of studies exist that include more modern proxies such as diatoms or chironomids (climate-indicators), but where available in the literature, these have been included. The report starts with an introduction where the current climatic and biological zonation of Greenland is discussed together with an overview of the geology of Greenland (on the full geological timescale) in order to put the following sections in perspective. Chapter 2 discusses the ice sheet history of Greenland from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) onward where special emphasis is given to the spatial variability of deglaciation at the onset of the Holocene. To enhance the

  5. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1990-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  6. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1991-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  7. Holocene climatic fluctuations from Lower Brahmaputra flood plain ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    BP which is well-matched with the peak period of the Holocene climatic optimum. However, during ... Warm Period and Little Ice Age (LIA) in this ... The maximum temperature is 30.4 ..... V 2007 Climatic changes during the last 1800 yrs from.

  8. Multidecadal, centennial, and millennial variability in sardine and anchovy abundances in the western North Pacific and climate-fish linkages during the late Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwae, Michinobu; Yamamoto, Masanobu; Sagawa, Takuya; Ikehara, Ken; Irino, Tomohisa; Takemura, Keiji; Takeoka, Hidetaka; Sugimoto, Takashige

    2017-12-01

    Paleorecords of pelagic fish abundance could better define the nature of fishery productivity dynamics and help understand responses of pelagic fish stocks to long-term climate changes. We report a high-resolution record of sardine and anchovy scale deposition rates (SDRs) from Beppu Bay, Southwest Japan, showing multidecadal and centennial variability in the abundance of Japanese sardine and Japanese anchovy during the last 2850 years. Variations in the sardine SDR showed periodicities at ∼50, ∼100, and ∼300 yr, while variations in the anchovy SDR showed periodicities at ∼30 and ∼260 yr. Comparisons between and correlation analyses of the time series of the sardine and anchovy SDRs demonstrate that there is not a consistent out-of-phase relationship during the last 2850 years. This indicates that the multidecadal alternations in the sardine and anchovy populations commonly seen in the 20th century did not necessarily occur during earlier periods. The Japanese sardine SDR record shows a long-term decreasing trend in the amplitudes of the multidecadal to centennial fluctuations. This decreasing trend may have resulted from an increasing trend in the winter sea surface temperature in the western North Pacific. The multicentennial variability in sardine abundance during the last millennium is consistent with the variabilities in the abnormal snow index in East Asia and the American tree ring-based Pacific Decadal Oscillation index, suggesting a basin-wide or regional climate-marine ecosystem linkage.

  9. North Atlantic-Fennoscandian Holocene climate trends and mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sejrup, H.P.; Seppä, H.; McKay, N.; Kaufman, D.S.; Geirsdottir, A.; de Vernal, A.; Renssen, H.; Husum, K.; Jennings, A.; Andrews, J.T.

    2016-01-01

    To investigate the mechanisms behind Holocene regional climate trends from north of 58°N in the North Atlantic-Fennoscandian region Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed and a temperature anomaly stack produced from 81 proxy derived summer temperature time series from 74 sites. The PC

  10. A multiple-proxy approach to understanding rapid Holocene climate change in Southeast Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davin, S. H.; Bradley, R. S.; Balascio, N. L.; de Wet, G.

    2012-12-01

    The susceptibility of the Arctic to climate change has made it an excellent workshop for paleoclimatological research. Although there have been previous studies concerning climate variability carried out in the Arctic, there remains a critical dearth of knowledge due the limited number of high-resolution Holocene climate-proxy records available from this region. This gap skews our understanding of observed and predicted climate change, and fuels uncertainty both in the realms of science and policy. This study takes a comprehensive approach to tracking Holocene climate variability in the vicinity of Tasiilaq, Southeast Greenland using a ~5.6 m sediment core from Lower Sermilik Lake. An age-depth model for the core has been established using 8 radiocarbon dates, the oldest of which was taken at 4 m down core and has been been dated to approximately 6.2 kyr BP. The bottom meter of the core below the final radiocarbon date contains a transition from cobbles and coarse sand to organic-rich laminations, indicating the termination of direct glacial influence and therefore likely marking the end of the last glacial period in this region. The remainder of the core is similarly organic-rich, with light-to-dark brown laminations ranging from 0.5 -1 cm in thickness and riddled with turbidites. Using this core in tandem with findings from an on-site assessment of the geomorphic history of the locale we attempt to assess and infer the rapid climatic shifts associated with the Holocene on a sub-centennial scale. Such changes include the termination of the last glacial period, the Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum, the Neoglacial Period, the Medieval Climatic Optimum, and the Little Ice Age. A multiple proxy approach including magnetic susceptibility, bulk organic geochemistry, elemental profiles acquired by XRF scanning, grain-size, and spectral data will be used to characterize the sediment and infer paleoclimate conditions. Additionally, percent biogenic silica by weight has been

  11. Some aspects of climate variability in the north east Ethiopian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents a review of climate variability in the northeast Ethiopian Highlands, particularly Wollo and Tigray, during the last 10000 years (the Holocene) and an analysis of rainfall variability during the historical period. To date little work has been done on climate reconstruction in Tigray and Wollo, however, ...

  12. Characterising Late-Holocene glacier variability in the southern tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromley, G.; Winckler, G.; Hall, B. L.; Schaefer, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Accurate resolution of both the timing and magnitude of Late-Holocene climate events, such as the Little Ice Age, is vital in order to test different hypotheses for the causes and propagation of such climate variability. However, in contrast to higher latitudes, well-dated records from the tropics are relatively rare and the overall climatic structure of the last millennium remains unresolved. Much of this uncertainty stems from difficulties associated with radiocarbon dating in these dry, often high-altitude environments, a situation that now is being addressed through the application and refinement of cosmogenic surface-exposure methods. We present detailed Late-Holocene moraine records, resolved with radiocarbon and surface-exposure dating, from sites across the Andes of southern Peru. Specifically, we describe glacial records from both the arid Western Cordillera, where glaciation is limited by moisture availability, and the humid Eastern Cordillera, where ablation is controlled primarily by air temperature. In both locations, the most recent advance is marked by two to three unweathered terminal moraines located several hundred metres beyond the modern ice margins. Our chronology indicates that, while the advance occurred broadly in step with the classic 'Little Ice Age', the maximum glacial extent in southern Peru was achieved relatively early on and that the 18th and 19th centuries were dominated by glacier retreat. In a broader temporal context, our data also confirm that, in contrast to northern temperate latitudes, the event in southern Peru was the most recent significant interruption in a progressive Holocene retreat. The consistency in glacier response between the different climate zones suggests (i) that this pattern of Late-Holocene climate variability was of at least regional extent and (ii) that temperature fluctuations were the primary driving mechanism.

  13. Biomarker records of Holocene climate variations in Asian interior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, M.; Liu, Z.; Liu, W.; Zhao, C.; Li, S.; He, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Understanding Holocene climate fluctuation may provide clues to projection of future climate change. Lake sediments in the arid central Asia (ACA), as an archive of past climate information, keep attracting considerable interest. We have retrieved several sediment cores from Lake Manas, an endorheic lake in Zunggar desert, Xinjiang Province, China. Biomarker proxies including alkenone Uk'37, %C37:4 and C37 concentration (C37 Conc), and physical proxies including density and magnetic susceptibility (MS) have been analyzed. We have found substantial climatic and environmental changes during the late Holocene. Density, MS and Uk'37 values are high during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and C37 Conc is very low. During the Little Ice Age, density and MS decrease, Uk'37 values drop to near 0.1, C37 Conc is increased by 2 to 3 magnitude. Thus, warm and dry conditions dominated MWP while cold and wet conditions dominated LIA, a typical "Westerly" pattern which is opposite to the hydrological variation in Asian monsoonal regions. Biomarker records' correlation with solar irradiance (SI), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the 1000year ACA Moisture Index (ACAM), and the North Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) suggests SI as one of the forcing factor on temperature fluctuation and cold and wet LIA possibly resulting from westerly-jet shift, negative NAO oscillation and the lower evaporation induced by the decrease of temperature. Biomarker records for the whole Holocene will be also presented.

  14. Middle and late Holocene climate change and human impact inferred from diatoms, algae and aquatic macrophyte pollen in sediments from Lake Montcortès (NE Iberian Peninsula)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scussolini, P.; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Rull, V.; Corella, J.P.; Valero-Garcés, B.; Gomà, J.

    2011-01-01

    During the middle and late Holocene, the Iberian Peninsula underwent large climatic and hydrologic changes, but the temporal resolution and regional distribution of available palaeoenvironmental records is still insufficient for a comprehensive assessment of the regional variability. The high

  15. Quantifying the effects of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquer, Laurent; Gaillard, Marie-José; Sugita, Shinya; Poska, Anneli; Trondman, Anna-Kari; Mazier, Florence; Nielsen, Anne Birgitte; Fyfe, Ralph M.; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Smith, Benjamin; Kaplan, Jed O.; Alenius, Teija; Birks, H. John B.; Bjune, Anne E.; Christiansen, Jörg; Dodson, John; Edwards, Kevin J.; Giesecke, Thomas; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Kangur, Mihkel; Koff, Tiiu; Latałowa, Małgorzata; Lechterbeck, Jutta; Olofsson, Jörgen; Seppä, Heikki

    2017-09-01

    Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen-based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming

  16. Patagonian and southern South Atlantic view of Holocene climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, M. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Strelin, J. A.; Denton, G. H.; Anderson, R. F.; Vandergoes, M. J.; Finkel, R. C.; Schwartz, R.; Travis, S. G.; Garcia, J. L.; Martini, M. A.; Nielsen, S. H. H.

    2016-06-01

    We present a comprehensive 10Be chronology for Holocene moraines in the Lago Argentino basin, on the east side of the South Patagonian Icefield. We focus on three different areas, where prior studies show ample glacier moraine records exist because they were formed by outlet glaciers sensitive to climate change. The 10Be dated records are from the Lago Pearson, Herminita Península-Brazo Upsala, and Lago Frías areas, which span a distance of almost 100 km adjacent to the modern Icefield. New 10Be ages show that expanded glaciers and moraine building events occurred at least at 6120 ± 390 (n = 13), 4450 ± 220 (n = 7), 1450 or 1410 ± 110 (n = 18), 360 ± 30 (n = 5), and 240 ± 20 (n = 8) years ago. Furthermore, other less well-dated glacier expansions of the Upsala Glacier occurred between 1400 and ∼1000 and ∼2300 and ∼2000 years ago. The most extensive glaciers occurred over the interval from ∼6100 to ∼4500 years ago, and their margins over the last ∼600 years were well within and lower than those in the middle Holocene. The 10Be ages agree with 14C-limiting data for the glacier histories in this area. We then link southern South American, adjacent South Atlantic, and other Southern Hemisphere records to elucidate broader regional patterns of climate and their possible causes. In the early Holocene, a far southward position of the westerly winds fostered warmth, small Patagonian glaciers, and reduced sea ice coverage over the South Atlantic. Although we infer a pronounced southward displacement of the westerlies during the early Holocene, these conditions did not occur throughout the southern mid-high latitudes, an important exception being over the southwest Pacific sector. Subsequently, a northward locus and/or expansion of the winds over the Patagonia-South Atlantic sector promoted the largest glaciers between ∼6100 and ∼4500 years ago and greatest sea ice coverage. Over the last few millennia, the South Patagonian Icefield has experienced

  17. Mid-Holocene onset of high-amplitude decadal to centennial scale variability along the Peru Chile Margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chazen, C. R.; Altabet, M.; Herbert, T. D.

    2008-12-01

    Understanding the natural climate variations in the eastern tropical Pacific is crucial for predicting the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system and for anticipating the ways in which increases in atmospheric CO2 will affect climate. Here we present the first continuous, high-resolution (11-12 yr) climate record across the mid-Holocene transition (10ka-1.4ka) from the Peru-Chile Margin near the epicenter of the modern ENSO system. Although the high productivity of the Peru margin should promote high deposition rates, and the anaerobic bottom water conditions should inhibit sediment mixing by benthic organisms, nearly all sediment cores recovered from this region suffer from major gaps in Holocene sedimentation. Our data comes from a ~5 meter piston core collected from the mid-Peruvian shelf (15° 15"S, 75° 58"W, ~250mwd) in the heart of the oxygen minimum/denitrification zone that provides the first uninterrupted archive of conditions along the Peru-Chile margin. A suite of geochemical proxies allow us to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST- Uk'37), phytoplankton productivity (C37total and %BSi), and thermocline ventilation (δ15N), variables that are tightly correlated to ENSO events today. Despite the observation that the mean late Holocene state of all three variables did not change over the last 10,000 years, our data reveal a dramatic increase in climate variability after the mid Holocene (~5ka); represented by prolonged periods (50-200yrs) of climate extremes, which are absent in the early Holocene. To further investigate these climate extremes we examine benthic foraminiferal assemblages and oxygen isotopes in combination with our other proxy records in selected late Holocene sections. The roughly centennial-scale oscillations do not show typical El Niño-La Niña correlations between proxies. We therefore posit that a significant fraction of super-ENSO variance during the course of the Holocene may originate outside the tropics

  18. The Late-Glacial and Holocene Marboré Lake sequence (2612 m a.s.l., Central Pyrenees, Spain): Testing high altitude sites sensitivity to millennial scale vegetation and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leunda, Maria; González-Sampériz, Penélope; Gil-Romera, Graciela; Aranbarri, Josu; Moreno, Ana; Oliva-Urcia, Belén; Sevilla-Callejo, Miguel; Valero-Garcés, Blas

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents the environmental, climate and vegetation changes reconstructed for the last 14.6 kyr cal BP from the Marboré Lake sedimentary sequence, the highest altitude record (2612 m a.s.l.) in the Pyrenees studied up to date. We investigate the sensitivity of this high altitude site to vegetational and climate dynamics and altitudinal shifts during the Holocene by comparing palynological spectra of the fossil sequence and pollen rain content from current moss pollsters. We hypothesize that the input of sediments in lakes at such altitude is strongly controlled by ice phenology (ice-free summer months) and that during cold periods Pollen Accumulation Rate (PAR) and Pollen Concentration (PC) reflect changes in ice-cover and thus is linked to temperature changes. Low sedimentation rates and low PC and PAR occurred during colder periods as the Younger Dryas (GS-1) and the Holocene onset (12.6-10.2 kyr cal BP), suggesting that the lake-surface remained ice-covered for most of the year during these periods. Warmer conditions are not evident until 10.2 kyr cal BP, when an abrupt increase in sedimentation rate, PC and PAR occur, pointing to a delayed onset of the Holocene temperature increase at high altitude. Well-developed pinewoods and deciduous forest dominated the mid montane belt since 9.3 kyr cal BP until mid-Holocene (5.2 kyr cal BP). A downwards shift in the deciduous forest occurred after 5.2 kyr cal BP, in agreement with the aridity trend observed at a regional and Mediterranean context. The increase of herbaceous taxa during the late-Holocene (3.5 kyr cal BP-present) reflects a general trend to reduced montane forest, as anthropogenic disturbances were not evident until 1.3 kyr cal BP when Olea proportions from lowland areas and other anthropogenic indicators clearly expand. Our study demonstrates the need to perform local experimental approaches to check the effect of ice phenology on high altitude lakes sensitivity to vegetation changes to obtain

  19. Detrital events and hydroclimate variability in the Romanian Carpathians during the mid-to-late Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longman, Jack; Ersek, Vasile; Veres, Daniel; Salzmann, Ulrich

    2017-07-01

    The Romanian Carpathians are located at the confluence of three major atmospheric pressure fields: the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Siberian. Despite its importance for understanding past human impact and climate change, high-resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of Holocene hydroclimate variability, and in particular records of extreme precipitation events in the area, are rare. Here we present a 7500-year-long high-resolution record of past climatic change and human impact recorded in a peatbog from the Southern Carpathians, integrating palynological, geochemical and sedimentological proxies. Natural climate fluctuations appear to be dominant until 4500 years before present (yr BP), followed by increasing importance of human impact. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses document regular minerogenic deposition within the bog, linked to periods of high precipitation. Such minerogenic depositional events began 4000 yr BP, with increased depositional rates during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and during periods of societal upheaval (e.g. the Roman conquest of Dacia). The timing of minerogenic events appears to indicate a teleconnection between major shifts in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hydroclimate variability in southeastern Europe, with increased minerogenic deposition correlating to low NAO index values. By linking the minerogenic deposition to precipitation variability, we state that this link persists throughout the mid-to-late Holocene.

  20. Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) – A systematic review of multi-proxy evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Darrell S.; Axford, Yarrow L.; Henderson, Andrew C.G.; McKay, Nicolas P.; Oswald, W. Wyatt; Saenger, Casey; Anderson, R. Scott; Bailey, Hannah L.; Clegg, Benjamin; Gajewski, Konrad; Hu, Feng Sheng; Jones, Miriam C.; Massa, Charly; Routson, Cody C.; Werner, Al; Wooller, Matthew J.; Yu, Zicheng

    2016-01-01

    Reconstructing climates of the past relies on a variety of evidence from a large number of sites to capture the varied features of climate and the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. This review summarizes available information from diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas), and it quantifies the primary trends of temperature- and moisture-sensitive records based in part on midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators (compiled in the recently published Arctic Holocene database, and updated here to v2.1). The composite time series from these proxy records are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies to clarify multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends in Holocene climate change. To focus the synthesis, the paleo data are used to frame specific questions that can be addressed with simulations by Earth system models to investigate the causes and dynamics of past and future climate change. This systematic review shows that, during the early Holocene (11.7–8.2 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present (approximate mid-20th-century average), with no clear spatial pattern. Composited pollen, midge and other proxy records average out the variability and show the overall lowest summer and mean-annual temperatures across the study region during the earliest Holocene, followed by warming over the early Holocene. The sparse data available on early Holocene glaciation show that glaciers in southern Alaska were as extensive then as they were during the late Holocene. Early Holocene lake levels were low in interior Alaska, but moisture indicators show pronounced differences across the region. The highest

  1. Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activity in Languedoc (southern France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azuara, J.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Lebreton, V.; Mazier, F.; Müller, S. D.; Dezileau, L.

    2015-12-01

    Holocene climate fluctuations and human activity since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to better understand Mediterranean paleoenvironmental changes over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High-resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics over the last 4500 years. Results are compared with climatic, historical and archeological archives. A long-term aridification trend is highlighted during the late Holocene, and three superimposed arid events are recorded at 4600-4300, 2800-2400 and 1300-1100 cal BP. These periods of high-frequency climate variability coincide in time with the rapid climatic events observed in the Atlantic Ocean (Bond et al., 2001). From the Bronze Age (4000 cal BP) to the end of the Iron Age (around 2000 cal BP), the spread of sclerophyllous taxa and loss of forest cover result from anthropogenic impact. Classical Antiquity is characterized by a major reforestation event related to the concentration of rural activity and populations in coastal plains leading to forest recovery in the mountains. A major regional deforestation occurred at the beginning of the High Middle Ages. Around 1000 cal BP, forest cover is minimal while the cover of olive, chestnut and walnut expands in relation to increasing human influence. The present-day vegetation dominated by Mediterranean shrubland and pines has been in existence since the beginning of the 20th century.

  2. Assessing the potential of Southern Caribbean corals for reconstructions of Holocene temperature variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giry, Cyril; Felis, Thomas; Scheffers, Sander; Fensterer, Claudia

    2010-01-01

    We present a 40-year long monthly resolved Sr/Ca record from a fossil Diploria strigosa coral from Bonaire (Southern Caribbean Sea) dated with U/Th at 2.35 ka before present (BP). Secondary modifiers of this sea surface temperature (SST) proxy in annually-banded corals such as diagenetic alteration of the skeleton and skeletal growth-rate are investigated. Extensive diagenetic investigations reveal that this fossil coral skeleton is pristine which is further supported by clear annual cycles in the coral Sr/Ca record. No significant correlation between annual growth rate and Sr/Ca is observed, suggesting that the Sr/Ca record is not affected by coral growth. Therefore, we conclude that the observed interannual Sr/Ca variability was influenced by ambient SST variability. Spectral analysis of the annual mean Sr/Ca record reveals a dominant frequency centred at 6-7 years that is not associated with changes of the annual growth rate. The first monthly resolved coral Sr/Ca record from the Southern Caribbean Sea for preindustrial time suggests that fossil corals from Bonaire are suitable tools for reconstructing past SST variability. Coastal deposits on Bonaire provide abundant fossil D. strigosa colonies of Holocene age that can be accurately dated and used to reconstruct climate variability. Comparisons of long monthly resolved Sr/Ca records from multiple fossil corals will provide a mean to estimate seasonality and interannual to interdecadal SST variability of the Southern Caribbean Sea during the Holocene.

  3. Holocene climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenxiang; Niu, Jie; Ming, Qingzhong; Shi, Zhengtao; Lei, Guoliang; Huang, Linpei; Long, Xian'e.; Chang, Fengqin

    2018-05-01

    Climatic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon (ASWM) during the Holocene have become a topic of recent studies. It is important to understand the patterns and causes of Holocene climatic changes and their relationship with global changes. Based on the climate proxies and wavelet analysis of Lugu Lake in the ASWM region, the climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the ASWM region during the Holocene have been reconstructed with a high-precision chronology. The results indicate the intensification of ASWM began to increase with Northern Hemisphere low-latitude solar insolation (LSI) and solar activity during the early Holocene, and gradually decreased during the late Holocene, exhibiting an apparent synchrony with numerous records of ASWM region. Meanwhile, an apparent 1000-a quasi-periodic signal is present in the environment proxies, and it demonstrates that the environmental change in the ASWM region has been driven mainly by LSI and solar activity.

  4. Millennial-scale variability in Holocene aquatic productivity from Burial Lake, Arctic Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkenbinder, Matthew S.; Abbott, Mark B.; Stoner, Joseph S.; Ortiz, Joseph D.; Finney, Bruce P.; Dorfman, Jason M.; Stansell, Nathan D.

    2018-05-01

    Holocene records of lacustrine primary production are commonly used to reconstruct past changes in environmental and climatic conditions. While several methods exist to infer paleoproductivity trends, few studies to date have applied multiple geochemical indices in the same core sequence from Arctic lakes to evaluate their fidelity and sensitivity to specific climate variables over long (Holocene length) timescales. In this study, we evaluate sub-century to millennial-scale fluctuations in paleoproductivity over the Holocene using geochemical (biogenic opal and sedimentary chlorin) analyses of sediments from Burial Lake in the western Brooks Range, Alaska. Large fluctuations in opal and related proxies occur at millennial timescales over the last 10,000 years. We interpret the changes in opal to result from variability in diatom productivity, which is indirectly mediated by climate primarily through changes in the duration of the ice-free growing season and the availability of limiting nutrients at this oligotrophic, tundra lake. Comparison of the opal and sedimentary chlorin record, which is correlated with TOC, shows contrasting patterns on both short (century to multi-century) and relatively long (millennial) time scales. The concentration of opal far exceeds that of TOC and variations in sediment dry bulk density, driven by changes in the accumulation of opal, are likely responsible in part for the variations in sedimentary chlorin. Further, C/N ratio values indicate a mixed algal-terrestrial source of sedimentary organic matter. This result highlights the complexity in the climatic interpretation of sedimentary chlorin as an index of whole lake production, because the signal is prone to dilution/concentration from opal and also reflects a combination of aquatic and terrestrial production. Time series analysis of the productivity records indicates the presence of a significant ∼1500-yr oscillation in opal concentration, which has been found in North Atlantic

  5. Climate variability and change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manton, M.

    2006-01-01

    When Australia's climate should not be definite barrier to the population reaching 30 million by 2050, it is recognised that our climate has limited the development of the nation over the past 200 years. Indeed in 1911, based on a comparison of the climate and development between the US and Australia. Griffith Taylor predicted that Australia's population would be 19 million at the end of the 20th century, which is a pretty good 90-year forecast. The climate constraint is not only due to much of the country being semi-arid with an annual rainfall below 400 millimetres, but also due to the large year-to-year variability of rainfall across the country

  6. Late-Holocene environment and climatic changes in Ameralik Fjord, southwest Greenland: evidence from the sedimentary record

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Henrik S.; Jensen, Karin G.; Kuijpers, Antoon

    2006-01-01

      Sedimentological and geochemical (XRF) data together with information from diatom and benthic foraminifera records of a 3.5 m long gravity core from Ameralik fjord, southern West Greenland, is used for reconstructing late Holocene environmental changes in this area. The changes are linked...... to large-scale North Atlantic ocean and climate variability. AMS 14C-dating of benthic foraminifera indicates that the sediment core covers the last 4400 years and may include the termination of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). The late HTM (4.4-3.2 ka BP) is characterized by high accumulation rates...

  7. Holocene vegetation and climate changes in the central Mediterranean inferred from a high-resolution marine pollen record (Adriatic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Combourieu-Nebout

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The high-resolution multiproxy study of the Adriatic marine core MD 90-917 provides new insights to reconstruct vegetation and regional climate changes over the southcentral Mediterranean during the Younger Dryas (YD and Holocene. Pollen records show the rapid forest colonization of the Italian and Balkan borderlands and the gradual installation of the Mediterranean association during the Holocene. Quantitative estimates based on pollen data provide Holocene precipitations and temperatures in the Adriatic Sea using a multi-method approach. Clay mineral ratios from the same core reflect the relative contributions of riverine (illite and smectite and eolian (kaolinite contributions to the site, and thus act as an additional proxy with which to evaluate precipitation changes in the Holocene. Vegetation climate reconstructions show the response to the Preboreal oscillation (PBO, most likely driven by changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation, which is linked to increasing river inputs from Adriatic rivers recorded by increase in clay mineral contribution to marine sediments. Pollen-inferred temperature declines during the early–mid Holocene, then increases during the mid–late Holocene, similar to southwestern Mediterranean climatic patterns during the Holocene. Several short vegetation and climatic events appear in the record, indicating the sensitivity of vegetation in the region to millennial-scale variability. Reconstructed summer precipitation shows a regional maximum (170–200 mm between 8000 and 7000 similar to the general pattern across southern Europe. Two important shifts in vegetation occur at 7700 cal yr BP (calendar years before present and between 7500 and 7000 cal yr BP and are correlated with increased river inputs around the Adriatic Basin respectively from the northern (7700 event and from the central Adriatic borderlands (7500–7000 event. During the mid-Holocene, the wet summers lead to permanent moisture all year

  8. Aquatic ecosystem responses to Holocene climate change and biome development in boreal, central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, Anson W.; Bezrukova, Elena V.; Leng, Melanie J.; Meaney, Miriam; Nunes, Ana; Piotrowska, Natalia; Self, Angela; Shchetnikov, Alexander; Shilland, Ewan; Tarasov, Pavel; Wang, Luo; White, Dustin

    2012-05-01

    Boreal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, and severe ecological impacts in the near future are virtually certain to occur. We undertook a multiproxy study on an alpine lake (ESM-1) at the modern tree-line in boreal, southern Siberia. Steppe and tundra biomes were extensive in eastern Sayan landscapes during the early Holocene. Boreal forest quickly expanded by 9.1 ka BP, and dominated the landscape until c 0.7 ka BP, when the greatest period of compositional turnover occurred. At this time, alpine meadow landscape expanded and Picea obovata colonised new habitats along river valleys and lake shorelines, because of prevailing cool, moist conditions. During the early Holocene, chironomid assemblages were dominated by cold stenotherms. Diatoms for much of the Holocene were dominated by alkaliphilous, fragilarioid taxa, up until 0.2 ka BP, when epiphytic species expanded, indicative of increased habitat availability. C/N mass ratios ranged between 9.5 and 13.5 (11.1-15.8 C/N atomic ratios), indicative of algal communities dominating organic matter contributions to bottom sediments with small, persistent contributions from vascular plants. However, δ13C values increased steadily from -34.9‰ during the early Holocene (9.3 ka BP) to -24.8‰ by 0.6 ka BP. This large shift in magnitude may be due to a number of factors, including increasing within-lake productivity, increasing disequilibrium between the isotopic balance of the lake with the atmosphere as the lake became isotopically ‘mature’, and declining soil respiration linked to small, but distinct retreat in forest biomes. The influence of climatic variables on landscape vegetation was assessed using redundancy analysis (RDA), a linear, direct ordination technique. Changes in July insolation at 60 °N significantly explained over one-fifth of the variation in species composition, while changes in estimates of northern hemisphere temperature and ice-rafted debris events in the North Atlantic

  9. Timing, cause and consequences of mid-Holocene climate transition in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Saraswat, R.; Naik, Dinesh K.; Nigam, R.; Gaur, A.S.

    -50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon 51, 1111-1150. Roberts, N., Brayshaw, D., Kuzucuoglu, C., Perez, R., Sadori, L., 2011. The mid-Holocene climatic transition in the Mediterranean: Causes and consequences. The Holocene 21, 3-13. Ruddiman, W.F., Ellis, E...

  10. Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Margaret; Douglas, Christine; Cole, K.L.; Winkler, Marge; Flaknes, Robyn

    2000-01-01

    We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is

  11. Millennial-scale variability in the local radiocarbon reservoir age of south Florida during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Lauren T.; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Ashe, Erica; Richey, Julie N.

    2017-01-01

    A growing body of research suggests that the marine environments of south Florida provide a critical link between the tropical and high-latitude Atlantic. Changes in the characteristics of water masses off south Florida may therefore have important implications for our understanding of climatic and oceanographic variability over a broad spatial scale; however, the sources of variability within this oceanic corridor remain poorly understood. Measurements of ΔR, the local offset of the radiocarbon reservoir age, from shallow-water marine environments can serve as a powerful tracer of water-mass sources that can be used to reconstruct variability in local-to regional-scale oceanography and hydrology. We combined radiocarbon and U-series measurements of Holocene-aged corals from the shallow-water environments of the Florida Keys reef tract (FKRT) with robust statistical modeling to quantify the millennial-scale variability in ΔR at locations with (“nearshore”) and without (“open ocean”) substantial terrestrial influence. Our reconstructions demonstrate that there was significant spatial and temporal variability in ΔR on the FKRT during the Holocene. Whereas ΔR was similar throughout the region after ∼4000 years ago, nearshore ΔR was significantly higher than in the open ocean during the middle Holocene. We suggest that the elevated nearshore ΔR from ∼8000 to 5000 years ago was most likely the result of greater groundwater influence associated with lower sea level at this time. In the open ocean, which would have been isolated from the influence of groundwater, ΔR was lowest ∼7000 years ago, and was highest ∼3000 years ago. We evaluated our open-ocean model of ΔR variability against records of local-to regional-scale oceanography and conclude that local upwelling was not a significant driver of open-ocean radiocarbon variability in this region. Instead, the millennial-scale trends in open-ocean ΔR were more likely a result of broader

  12. Holocene evolution of the Tabasco delta – Mexico : impact of climate, volcanism and humans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooren, C.A.M.

    2017-01-01

    This research revealed the impact of climate, volcanism and humans on the late Holocene evolution of a tropical delta in southern Mexico. Palynological, tephrochronological, limnological, geomorphological and sedimentological techniques have been applied to reconstruct the evolution of the

  13. Holocene hydrologic variation at Lake Titicaca, Bolivia/Peru, and its relationship to North Atlantic climate variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Garland, J.; Ekdahl, E.

    2005-10-01

    A growing number of sites in the Northern Hemisphere show centennial- to millennial-scale climate variation that has been correlated with change in solar variability or with change in North Atlantic circulation. However, it is unclear how (or whether) these oscillations in the climate system are manifest in the Southern Hemisphere because of a lack of sites with suitably high sampling resolution. In this paper, we reconstruct the lake-level history of Lake Titicaca, using the carbon isotopic content of sedimentary organic matter, to evaluate centennial- to millennial-scale precipitation variation and its phasing relative to sites in the Northern Hemisphere. The pattern and timing of lake-level change in Lake Titicaca is similar to the ice-rafted debris record of Holocene Bond events, demonstrating a possible coupling between precipitation variation on the Altiplano and North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The cold periods of the Holocene Bond events correspond with periods of increased precipitation on the Altiplano. Holocene precipitation variability on the Altiplano is anti-phased with respect to precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon region. More generally, the tropical Andes underwent large changes in precipitation on centennial-to-millennial timescales during the Holocene.

  14. Holocene geologic and climatic history around the Gulf of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, D.H.; Crowell, A.L.; Hamilton, T.D.; Finney, B.P.

    1998-01-01

    Though not as dramatic as during the last Ice Age, pronounced climatic changes occurred in the northeastern Pacific over the last 10,000 years. Summers warmer and drier than today's accompanied a Hypsithermal interval between 9 and 6 ka. Subsequent Neoglaciation was marked by glacier expansion after 5-6 ka and the assembly of modern-type plant communities by 3-4 ka. The Neoglacial interval contained alternating cold and warm intervals, each lasting several hundred years to one millennium, and including both the Medieval Warm Period (ca. AD 900-1350) and the Little Ice Age (ca. AD 1350-1900). Salmon abundance fluctuated during the Little Ice Age in response to local glaciation and probably also to changes in the intensity of the Aleutian Low. Although poorly understood at present, climate fluctuations at all time scales were intimately connected with oceanographic changes in the North Pacific Ocean. The Gulf of Alaska region is tectonically highly active, resulting in a history of frequent geological catastrophes during the Holocene. Twelve to 14 major volcanic eruptions occurred since 12 ka. At intervals of 20-100 years, large earthquakes have raised and lowered sea level instantaneously by meters and generated destructive tsunamis. Sea level has often varied markedly between sites only 50-100 km apart due to tectonism and the isostatic effects of glacier fluctuations.

  15. Surfing wave climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Iñigo J.; Méndez, Fernando J.

    2014-10-01

    International surfing destinations are highly dependent on specific combinations of wind-wave formation, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. Surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, and analyses of surf quality require the consideration of the seasonal, interannual and long-term variability of surf conditions on a global scale. A multivariable standardized index based on expert judgment is proposed for this purpose. This index makes it possible to analyze surf conditions objectively over a global domain. A summary of global surf resources based on a new index integrating existing wave, wind, tides and sea surface temperature databases is presented. According to general atmospheric circulation and swell propagation patterns, results show that west-facing low to middle-latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Month-to-month analysis reveals strong seasonal variations in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing the frequency of such events in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Interannual variability was investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional modes of low-frequency climate variability such as El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation, revealing their strong influence at both the global and the regional scale. Results of the long-term trends demonstrate an increase in the probability of surfable events on west-facing coasts around the world in recent years. The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers, the surf tourism industry and surf-related coastal planners and stakeholders.

  16. Macrophysical climate models and Holocene hunter-gatherer subsistence shifts in Central Texas, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauldin, R. P.; Munoz, C.

    2013-12-01

    We use stable carbon isotopic values from bone collagen, as well as carbon values from carbonate extracted from bone apatite from 69 prehistoric human skeletal samples to investigate past resource use and climate relationships over the Middle and Late Holocene in Central Texas. Bone samples come from seven archaeological sites and samples date from 6,900 BP to the close of the prehistoric sequence at about 350 BP. Carbon isotopes from these samples suggest four broad dietary trends. From 6,900 through about 3,800 BP, carbon isotopes suggest a gradual increase in the consumption of resources that ultimately use a C3 photosynthetic pathway. A decline in δ13C in both collagen and carbonate values follows, suggesting a decrease in C3 resource use through roughly 2,900 BP. A variable, but once again increasing pattern on C3 resource use by prehistoric hunter-gatherers is indicated in bone isotopes through about 1,000 BP. After that date, a decrease in C3 resource dependence, with hints at greater subsistence diversity, is suggested through the close of the sequence at 350 BP. To assess the impact of climate shifts on this isotopic pattern, we developed a series of macrophysical climate models (MCM) for several locations in Central Texas focusing on fall, winter, and early spring precipitation. This fall-spring rainfall should closely determine C3 production. If subsistence shifts are responding to climate-induced changes in resource availability, then the measured hunter-gatherer carbon isotope trends summarized above should pattern with C3 production as monitored by the modeled fall-spring precipitation values. For the Middle Holocene portion of the sequence, the precipitation models suggest increasing C3 production, consistent with increasing C3 dependence shown in the isotopic data. A decline in C3 production between 3,900 and 3,000 BP in the models is also consistent with the isotopic decline at that point. After 3,000 BP, however, the coupling between fall

  17. Late-Holocene environment and climatic changes in Ameralik Fjord, southwest Greenland: evidence from the sedimentary record

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Henrik S.; Jensen, Karin G.; Kuijpers, Antoon

    2006-01-01

      Sedimentological and geochemical (XRF) data together with information from diatom and benthic foraminifera records of a 3.5 m long gravity core from Ameralik fjord, southern West Greenland, is used for reconstructing late Holocene environmental changes in this area. The changes are linked...... to large-scale North Atlantic ocean and climate variability. AMS 14C-dating of benthic foraminifera indicates that the sediment core covers the last 4400 years and may include the termination of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). The late HTM (4.4-3.2 ka BP) is characterized by high accumulation rates...... conditions were further characterised by limited sea ice probably related to a mild and relatively windy winter climate. After 3.2 ka BP lower fine-grained sedimentation rates, but a larger input from sea-ice rafted or aeolian coarse material prevailed. This can be related to colder atmospheric conditions...

  18. A Geochemical and Sedimentary Record of High Southern Latitude Holocene Climate Evolution from Lago Fagnano, Tierra del Fuego

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moy, C M; Dunbar, R B; Guilderson, T P; Waldmann, N; Mucciarone, D A; Recasens, C; Austin, J A; Anselmetti, F S

    2010-11-19

    Situated at the southern margin of the hemispheric westerly wind belt and immediately north of the Antarctic Polar Frontal zone, Tierra del Fuego is well-positioned to monitor coupled changes in the ocean-atmosphere system of the high southern latitudes. Here we describe a Holocene paleoclimate record from sediment cores obtained from Lago Fagnano, a large lake in southern Tierra del Fuego at 55{sup o}S, to investigate past changes in climate related to these two important features of the global climate system. We use an AMS radiocarbon chronology for the last 8,000 years based on pollen concentrates, thereby avoiding contamination from bedrock-derived lignite. Our chronology is consistent with a tephrochronologic age date for deposits from the middle Holocene Volcan Hudson eruption. Combining bulk organic isotopic ({delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 15}N) and elemental (C and N) parameters with physical sediment properties allow us to better understand sediment provenance and transport mechanisms and to interpret Holocene climate and tectonic change during the last 8,000 years. Co-variability and long-term trends in C/N ratio, carbon accumulation rate, and magnetic susceptibility reflect an overall Holocene increase in the delivery of terrestrial organic and lithogenic material to the deep eastern basin. We attribute this variability to westerly wind-derived precipitation. Increased wind strength and precipitation in the late Holocene drives the Nothofagus forest eastward and enhances run-off and terrigenous inputs to the lake. Superimposed on the long-term trend are a series of abrupt 9 negative departures in C/N ratio, which constrain the presence of seismically-driven mass flow events in the record. We identify an increase in bulk {delta}{sup 13}C between 7,000 and 5,000 cal yr BP that we attribute to enhanced aquatic productivity driven by warmer summer temperatures. The Lago Fagnano {delta}{sup 13}C record shows similarities with Holocene records of sea surface

  19. Reconstructing Holocene climate using a climate model: Model strategy and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberkorn, K.; Blender, R.; Lunkeit, F.; Fraedrich, K.

    2009-04-01

    An Earth system model of intermediate complexity (Planet Simulator; PlaSim) is used to reconstruct Holocene climate based on proxy data. The Planet Simulator is a user friendly general circulation model (GCM) suitable for palaeoclimate research. Its easy handling and the modular structure allow for fast and problem dependent simulations. The spectral model is based on the moist primitive equations conserving momentum, mass, energy and moisture. Besides the atmospheric part, a mixed layer-ocean with sea ice and a land surface with biosphere are included. The present-day climate of PlaSim, based on an AMIP II control-run (T21/10L resolution), shows reasonable agreement with ERA-40 reanalysis data. Combining PlaSim with a socio-technological model (GLUES; DFG priority project INTERDYNAMIK) provides improved knowledge on the shift from hunting-gathering to agropastoral subsistence societies. This is achieved by a data assimilation approach, incorporating proxy time series into PlaSim to initialize palaeoclimate simulations during the Holocene. For this, the following strategy is applied: The sensitivities of the terrestrial PlaSim climate are determined with respect to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Here, the focus is the impact of regionally varying SST both in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The inverse of these sensitivities is used to determine the SST conditions necessary for the nudging of land and coastal proxy climates. Preliminary results indicate the potential, the uncertainty and the limitations of the method.

  20. New evidence for "far-field" Holocene sea level oscillations and links to global climate records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Clark, T. R.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Zhao, J.-x.

    2018-04-01

    Rising sea level in the coming century is of significant concern, yet predicting relative sea level change in response to eustatic sea level variability is complex. Potential analogues are provided by the recent geological past but, until recently, many sea level reconstructions have been limited to millennial scale interpretations due to age uncertainties and paucity in proxy derived records. Here we present a sea level history for the tectonically stable "far-field" Great Barrier Reef, Australia, derived from 94 high precision uranium-thorium dates of sub-fossil coral microatolls. Our results provide evidence for at least two periods of relative sea level instability during the Holocene. These sea level oscillations are broadly synchronous with Indo-Pacific negative sea surface temperature anomalies, rapid global cooling events and glacial advances. We propose that the pace and magnitude of these oscillations are suggestive of eustatic/thermosteric processes operating in conjunction with regional climatic controls.

  1. Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activities in Languedoc (Southern France)

    OpenAIRE

    J. Azuara; N. Combourieu-Nebout; V. Lebreton; F. Mazier; S. D. Müller; L. Dezileau

    2015-01-01

    Holocene climate fluctuations and human activities since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to reconstruct Mediterranean paleoenvironments over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics ove...

  2. Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2015-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

  3. Quantitative Holocene climatic reconstructions for the lower Yangtze region of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianyong; Dodson, John; Yan, Hong; Wang, Weiming; Innes, James B.; Zong, Yongqiang; Zhang, Xiaojian; Xu, Qinghai; Ni, Jian; Lu, Fengyan

    2018-02-01

    Quantitative proxy-based and high-resolution palaeoclimatic datasets are scarce for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River (LYR) basin. This region is in a transitional vegetation zone which is climatologically sensitive; and as a birthplace for prehistorical civilization in China, it is important to understand how palaeoclimatic dynamics played a role in affecting cultural development in the region. We present a pollen-based and regionally-averaged Holocene climatic twin-dataset for mean total annual precipitation (PANN) and mean annual temperature (TANN) covering the last 10,000 years for the LYR region. This is based on the technique of weighted averaging-partial least squares regression to establish robust calibration models for obtaining reliable climatic inferences. The pollen-based reconstructions generally show an early Holocene climatic optimum with both abundant monsoonal rainfall and warm thermal conditions, and a declining pattern of both PANN and TANN values in the middle to late Holocene. The main driving forces behind the Holocene climatic changes in the LYR area are likely summer solar insolation associated with tropical or subtropical macro-scale climatic circulations such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regional multi-proxy comparisons indicate that the Holocene variations in precipitation and temperature for the LYR region display an in-phase relationship with other related proxy records from southern monsoonal China and the Indian monsoon-influenced regions, but are inconsistent with the Holocene moisture or temperature records from northern monsoonal China and the westerly-dominated region in northwestern China. Overall, our comprehensive palaeoclimatic dataset and models may be significant tools for understanding the Holocene Asian monsoonal evolution and for anticipating its future dynamics in eastern Asia.

  4. Holocene climate aridification trend and human impact interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale climate fluctuations from a new sedimentary record from Padul (Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Román, María J.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Camuera, Jon; García-Alix, Antonio; Anderson, R. Scott; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Carrión, José S.

    2018-01-01

    Holocene centennial-scale paleoenvironmental variability has been described in a multiproxy analysis (i.e., lithology, geochemistry, macrofossil, and microfossil analyses) of a paleoecological record from the Padul Basin in Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula. This sequence covers a relevant time interval hitherto unreported in the studies of the Padul sedimentary sequence. The ˜ 4700-year record has preserved proxies of climate variability, with vegetation, lake levels, and sedimentological change during the Holocene in one of the most unique and southernmost wetlands in Europe. The progressive middle and late Holocene trend toward arid conditions identified by numerous authors in the western Mediterranean region, mostly related to a decrease in summer insolation, is also documented in this record; here it is also superimposed by centennial-scale variability in humidity. In turn, this record shows centennial-scale climate oscillations in temperature that correlate with well-known climatic events during the late Holocene in the western Mediterranean region, synchronous with variability in solar and atmospheric dynamics. The multiproxy Padul record first shows a transition from a relatively humid middle Holocene in the western Mediterranean region to more aridity from ˜ 4700 to ˜ 2800 cal yr BP. A relatively warm and humid period occurred between ˜ 2600 and ˜ 1600 cal yr BP, coinciding with persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions and the historic Iberian-Roman Humid Period. Enhanced arid conditions, co-occurring with overall positive NAO conditions and increasing solar activity, are observed between ˜ 1550 and ˜ 450 cal yr BP (˜ 400 to ˜ 1400 CE) and colder and warmer conditions occurred during the Dark Ages and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), respectively. Slightly wetter conditions took place during the end of the MCA and the first part of the Little Ice Age, which could be related to a change towards negative NAO conditions

  5. Holocene climate aridification trend and human impact interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale climate fluctuations from a new sedimentary record from Padul (Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Ramos-Román

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Holocene centennial-scale paleoenvironmental variability has been described in a multiproxy analysis (i.e., lithology, geochemistry, macrofossil, and microfossil analyses of a paleoecological record from the Padul Basin in Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula. This sequence covers a relevant time interval hitherto unreported in the studies of the Padul sedimentary sequence. The  ∼  4700-year record has preserved proxies of climate variability, with vegetation, lake levels, and sedimentological change during the Holocene in one of the most unique and southernmost wetlands in Europe. The progressive middle and late Holocene trend toward arid conditions identified by numerous authors in the western Mediterranean region, mostly related to a decrease in summer insolation, is also documented in this record; here it is also superimposed by centennial-scale variability in humidity. In turn, this record shows centennial-scale climate oscillations in temperature that correlate with well-known climatic events during the late Holocene in the western Mediterranean region, synchronous with variability in solar and atmospheric dynamics. The multiproxy Padul record first shows a transition from a relatively humid middle Holocene in the western Mediterranean region to more aridity from  ∼  4700 to  ∼  2800 cal yr BP. A relatively warm and humid period occurred between  ∼  2600 and  ∼  1600 cal yr BP, coinciding with persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO conditions and the historic Iberian–Roman Humid Period. Enhanced arid conditions, co-occurring with overall positive NAO conditions and increasing solar activity, are observed between  ∼  1550 and  ∼  450 cal yr BP (∼  400 to  ∼  1400 CE and colder and warmer conditions occurred during the Dark Ages and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, respectively. Slightly wetter conditions took place during the end of

  6. Late Holocene Hydrologic Variability in the southeast Mojave Desert using sediments from Ford Lake, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidelmeijer, J.; Kirby, M.; Anderson, W. T., Jr.; Mayer, S. A.; Palermo, J. A.; Stout, C.; Shellhorn, A.; Weisberg, G.; Rangel, H.; Hess, B.

    2017-12-01

    Most published lacustrine studies located in the Mojave Desert focus on lakes that receive the majority of their water from the Mojave River (e.g., Silver Lake, Cronese Lakes, Soda Lake, etc). Consequently, these Mojave River-fed lake sites record coastal hydroclimatic signals rather than a solely Mojave-only signal. The reason for this signal-disconnect is that the Mojave River is sourced in the San Bernardino Mountains, where annual precipitation is dictated by coastal hydroclimates. Therefore, much remains unknown about how the Mojave Desert changed during the Holocene at sub-millennial time scales. To address this problem and fill in an important geographical gap, we focus on Ford Lake in the southeastern Mojave Desert. Ford Lake is an internally drained, closed basin, and it is completely disconnected from the Mojave River. As a result, it represents one of the first lakes studied in the Mojave Desert with a climate signal that is 100% Mojave. Sediments from Ford Lake provide valuable context for understanding hydroclimatic variability exclusive to the Mojave Desert. To date, two hand-dug 1.5 m trenches (depocenter and littoral zone) and 3 overlapping sediments cores from the lake's depocenter have been sampled. The total core length is 3.55 m and bottomed in coarse alluvium, suggesting we captured the complete lacustrine sediment package. Initial results by Mayer (2016) focused on the most recent 1200 calendar years before present, or the upper 2.16 m. Mayer (2016) found evidence for increased run-off (wetter climate) during the Little Ice Age and reduced run-off (drier climate) during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly. Here, we complete the study, improving age control using sediment charcoal. Grain size, magnetic susceptibility, percent total organic matter, percent total carbonate content, C:N ratios and C and N isotopic analyses are (will be) measured at 1 cm contiguous intervals. The Ford Lake record has been (will be) compared to pre-existing regional

  7. Holocene fluctuations in human population demonstrate repeated links to food production and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevan, Andrew; Colledge, Sue; Fuller, Dorian; Fyfe, Ralph; Shennan, Stephen; Stevens, Chris

    2017-12-05

    We consider the long-term relationship between human demography, food production, and Holocene climate via an archaeological radiocarbon date series of unprecedented sampling density and detail. There is striking consistency in the inferred human population dynamics across different regions of Britain and Ireland during the middle and later Holocene. Major cross-regional population downturns in population coincide with episodes of more abrupt change in North Atlantic climate and witness societal responses in food procurement as visible in directly dated plants and animals, often with moves toward hardier cereals, increased pastoralism, and/or gathered resources. For the Neolithic, this evidence questions existing models of wholly endogenous demographic boom-bust. For the wider Holocene, it demonstrates that climate-related disruptions have been quasi-periodic drivers of societal and subsistence change. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  8. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  9. Late Pleistocene and Holocene Hydroclimate Variability in the Tropical Andes from Alpine Lake Sediments, Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, D. J.; Abbott, M. B.; Polissar, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    The tropics play a major role in the global hydrologic cycle and changes to tropical rainfall patterns have critical implications for water resources and ecosystem dynamics over large geographic scales. In tropical South America, late Pleistocene and Holocene precipitation variability has been documented in geologic records and associated with numerous external and internal variables, including changes in summer insolation, South American summer monsoon strength, Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, continental moisture recycling, and other climate processes. However, there are few records from the northern hemisphere tropical Americas, a key region for understanding interhemispheric linkages and the drivers of tropical hydroclimate variability. Here, we present a ~13 ka record of coupled hydroclimate and environmental changes from Laguna Brava, a small (~0.07 km2), hydrologically closed lake basin situated at 2400 m asl in the Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela. Sediment cores collected from varying water depths and proximity to shore are placed in a chronologic framework using radiocarbon ages from terrestrial macrofossils, and analyzed for a suite of physical, bulk geochemical, and stable isotopic parameters. Compound specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) measurements of terrestrial plant waxes (long-chain n-alkanes) show a sharp increase in the late Pleistocene, followed by a long-term trend toward more negative values that suggest a ~20‰ decrease in the D/H ratios of South American tropical precipitation during the Holocene. This pattern is consistent in sign and magnitude to other South American precipitation reconstructions from both hemispheres, indicating interhemispheric similarities in tropical hydroclimate variability. Superimposed on this continent-scale trend are changes in moisture balance and environmental conditions in the Venezuelan Andes. We reconstruct these parameters at Laguna Brava at multidecadal and centennial resolution and evaluate this

  10. Evidence for a possible modern and mid-Holocene solar influence on climate from Lake Titicaca, South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theissen, K. M.; Dunbar, R. B.

    2005-12-01

    In tropical regions, there are few paleoclimate archives with the necessary resolution to investigate climate variability at interannual-to-decadal timescales prior to the onset of the instrumental record. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented in the instrumental record and the importance of the precessional forcing of millennial variability has been established in studies of tropical paleoclimate records. In contrast, decade-to-century variability is still poorly understood. Here, we examine interannual to decadal variability in the northern Altiplano of South America using digital image analysis of a floating interval of varved sediments of middle Holocene age (~6160-6310 yr BP) from Lake Titicaca. Multi-taper method (MTM) and wavelet frequency-domain analyses were performed on a time series generated from a gray-scaled digital image of the mm-thick laminations. Our results indicate significant power at a decadal periodicity (10-12 years) associated with the Schwabe cycle of solar activity. Frequency-domain analysis also indicates power at 2-2.5 year periodicities associated with ENSO. Similarly, spectral analysis of a 75 year instrumental record of Titicaca lake level shows significant power at both solar and ENSO periodicities. Although both of the examined records are short, our results imply that during both the mid-Holocene and modern times, solar and ENSO variability may have contributed to high frequency climate fluctuations over the northern Altiplano. We suspect that solar influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation features may account for the decadal variability in the mid-Holocene and present-day water balance of the Altiplano.

  11. Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

  12. Early Holocene climate oscillations recorded in three Greenland ice cores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Sune Olander; Vinther, Bo Møllesøe; Clausen, Henrik Brink

    2007-01-01

    around 9.3 ka before present, and the Preboreal Oscillation during the first centuries of the Holocene. For each of these sections, we present a d18O anomaly curve and a common accumulation signal that represents regional changes in the accumulation rate over the Greenland ice cap....... and accumulation anomalies that are common to the three cores in the Early Holocene (7.9–11.7 ka before present). Three time periods with significant and synchronous anomalies in the d18O and accumulation signals stand out: the well-known 8.2 ka event, an event of shorter duration but of almost similar amplitude...

  13. Impact of Earth's orbit and freshwater fluxes on Holocene climate mean seasonal cycle and ENSO characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braconnot, P.; Zheng, W. [unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Luan, Y. [unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Brewer, Simon [University of Wyoming, Department of Botany, Laramie, WY (United States)

    2012-03-15

    We use a state-of-the-art 3-dimensional coupled model to investigate the relative impact of long term variations in the Holocene insolation forcing and of a freshwater release in the North Atlantic. We show that insolation has a greater effect on seasonality and La Nina events and is the major driver of sea surface temperature changes. In contrast, the variations in precipitation reflect changes in El Nino events. The impact of ice-sheet melting may have offset the impact of insolation on El Nino Southern Oscillation variability at the beginning of the Holocene. These simulations provide a coherent framework to refine the interpretation of proxy data and show that changes in seasonality may bias the projection of relationships established between proxy indicators and climate variations in the east Pacific from present day records. (orig.)

  14. ENSO related decadal scale climate variability from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brijker, J.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Bickert, T.; Kroon, D.

    2006-01-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that affects socio-economical welfare in vast areas in the world. A continuous record of Holocene ENSO related climate variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm pool (IPWP) is constructed on the basis of stable oxygen isotopes in shells of

  15. Mid-Holocene to Present Climate Transition in Tropical South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turcq, B.; Cordeiro, R.; Sifeddine, A.; Braconnot, P.; Dias, P. S.; Costa, R.; Jorgetti, T.

    2008-12-01

    The classical illustration of Holocene climate changes in tropical South America is the huge rising of Titicaca lake level from 4400 to 4000 cal BP. Because the Amazon basin is the source of Andean rainfalls we have explored Amazonian data of climate changes during the Holocene to better understand the cause of this abrupt transition. Amazonian data confirm the existence of mid-Holocene dryness: (1) lacustrine level studies show a lower precipitation/evaporation budget than present, with the lowest lake levels between 8500 and 6800 cal BP; (2) although the dominant Holocene vegetation has always been the rainforest in the heart of Amazonia, this forest expanded towards the northwestern and southwestern regions from 6800 to 1550 cal BP, moreover, pioneer elements of the rainforest developed during the mid-Holocene and the best example is those of Cecropia, between 9000 and 5000 cal BP. (3) soil d13C indicates a forest expansion over savannas areas in Roraima (north), Mato Grosso and Rondonia (southwest), during the Holocene. (4) the mid-Holocene (8000- 4000 cal BP) is characterized by repeated occurrences of forest fires, marked by the presence of charcoals in soils and lacustrine sediments. However these different records are not characterized by abrupt transitions at the end of the Middle Holocene in Amazonia. In the Andean records there is a clear north-south shift in the timing of the transition. Analysis of coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model simulations suggest that convection in Amazon basin is directly controlled by insolation leading to an almost linear response of local climate to the global forcing. Differently, in the eastern and south-western regions where the rain is brought by the South American Monsoon, the climate transition appears more abrupt. It may be because the involved climate mechanisms are more complex and depend on Ocean/Atmosphere/Vegetation coupled process (ITCZ position, ZCAS formation, etc.). Tectonic movements or threshold links to

  16. Deglacial and Holocene sea-ice variability north of Iceland and response to ocean circulation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Xiaotong; Zhao, Meixun; Knudsen, Karen Luise; Sha, Longbin; Eiríksson, Jón; Gudmundsdóttir, Esther; Jiang, Hui; Guo, Zhigang

    2017-08-01

    Sea-ice conditions on the North Icelandic shelf constitute a key component for the study of the climatic gradients between the Arctic and the North Atlantic Oceans at the Polar Front between the cold East Icelandic Current delivering Polar surface water and the relatively warm Irminger Current derived from the North Atlantic Current. The variability of sea ice contributes to heat reduction (albedo) and gas exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, and further affects the deep-water formation. However, lack of long-term and high-resolution sea-ice records in the region hinders the understanding of palaeoceanographic change mechanisms during the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Here, we present a sea-ice record back to 15 ka (cal. ka BP) based on the sea-ice biomarker IP25, phytoplankton biomarker brassicasterol and terrestrial biomarker long-chain n-alkanols in piston core MD99-2272 from the North Icelandic shelf. During the Bølling/Allerød (14.7-12.9 ka), the North Icelandic shelf was characterized by extensive spring sea-ice cover linked to reduced flow of warm Atlantic Water and dominant Polar water influence, as well as strong meltwater input in the area. This pattern showed an anti-phase relationship with the ice-free/less ice conditions in marginal areas of the eastern Nordic Seas, where the Atlantic Water inflow was strong, and contributed to an enhanced deep-water formation. Prolonged sea-ice cover with occasional occurrence of seasonal sea ice prevailed during the Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka) interrupted by a brief interval of enhanced Irminger Current and deposition of the Vedde Ash, as opposed to abruptly increased sea-ice conditions in the eastern Nordic Seas. The seasonal sea ice decreased gradually from the Younger Dryas to the onset of the Holocene corresponding to increasing insolation. Ice-free conditions and sea surface warming were observed for the Early Holocene, followed by expansion of sea ice during the Mid-Holocene.

  17. North American Rocky Mountain Hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, B.; Anderson, L.; Berkelhammer, M. B.; Barron, J. A.; Steinman, B. A.; Abbott, M. B.

    2015-12-01

    A network of western North American lake sediment isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) developed during the past decade provides substantial evidence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere forcing of precipitation variability during the Holocene. We present an overview of the eighteen lake carbonate-δ18O records located in the North American Rocky Mountains with a new compilation of modern lake water isotope measurements to characterize their sensitivity to variations in precipitation-δ18O and fractionation effects by evaporation. Comparative analysis of the carbonate-δ18O records that reflect precipitation isotope (δ18O) values (i.e., precipitation "isometers") indicates a sequence of time-varying in-phase and antiphase patterns between northern and southern regions during the Holocene that provide evidence for a highly non-stationary influence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. We identify a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole, which was sustained for ~2000 years between ~3.5 and 1.5 ka. The dipole contrasts with divergent earlier Holocene patterns and appears to indicate the onset of linkages between northern and tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics as we know them today. These observations are informed by previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O. Further investigation of short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scale patterns are needed to improve our understanding of the processes that 1) drive regional precipitation-δ18O responses to Pacific Ocean-atmosphere variability, and 2) cause varying internal ocean-atmosphere responses to external climate forcing.

  18. Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorzi, Coralie; Fernanda Sanchez Goñi, Maria; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

    2016-04-01

    In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4,200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4,200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

  19. Solar Variability and Planetary Climates

    CERN Document Server

    Calisesi, Y; Gray, L; Langen, J; Lockwood, M

    2007-01-01

    Variations in solar activity, as revealed by variations in the number of sunspots, have been observed since ancient times. To what extent changes in the solar output may affect planetary climates, though, remains today more than ever a subject of controversy. In 2000, the SSSI volume on Solar Variability and Climate reviewed the to-date understanding of the physics of solar variability and of the associated climate response. The present volume on Solar Variability and Planetary Climates provides an overview of recent advances in this field, with particular focus at the Earth's middle and lower atmosphere. The book structure mirrors that of the ISSI workshop held in Bern in June 2005, the collection of invited workshop contributions and of complementary introductory papers synthesizing the current understanding in key research areas such as middle atmospheric processes, stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling, tropospheric aerosols chemistry, solar storm influences, solar variability physics, and terrestri...

  20. Holocene vegetation and climate history of the northern Bighorn Basin, southern Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyford, M.E.; Betancourt, J.L.; Jackson, S.T.

    2002-01-01

    Records of Holocene vegetation and climate change at low elevations (treeline indicates wetter conditions between 4400 and 2700 14C yr B.P. Increased aridity after 2700 14C yr B.P. initiated expansion of J. osteosperma from the east to west side of the Pryor Mountains. ?? 2002 University of Washington.

  1. Simulation of the Holocene climate evolution in Nothern Africa: the termination of the African Humid Period.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renssen, H.; Brovkin, V.; Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H.

    2006-01-01

    The Holocene climate evolution in Northern Africa is studied in a 9000-yr-long transient simulation with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model forced by changes in insolation and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The model simulates in the monsoonal domains a significant decrease in

  2. Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

    2013-12-01

    compared to other proxy records. (2) a multiproxy reconstruction of temperature over the Common Era (Mann et al., 2009), where we find that about one third of the records display significant departures from normality. Accordingly, accounting for skewness in proxy predictors has a notable influence on both reconstructed global mean and spatial patterns of temperature change. Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records thus requires cares, but can be done with relatively simple tools. References - Mann, M. E., Z. Zhang, S. Rutherford, R. S. Bradley, M. K. Hughes, D. Shindell, C. Ammann, G. Faluvegi, and F. Ni (2009), Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little ice age and medieval climate anomaly, Science, 326(5957), 1256-1260, doi:10.1126/science.1177303. - Moy, C., G. Seltzer, D. Rodbell, and D. Anderson (2002), Variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activ- ity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch, Nature, 420(6912), 162-165.

  3. Holocene seasonal variability inferred from multiple proxy records from Crevice Lake, Yellowstone National Park, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitlock, Cathy; Dean, Walter E.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Stevens, Lora R.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Power, Mitchell J.; Rosenbaum, Joseph R.; Pierce, Kenneth L.; Bracht-Flyr, Brandi B.

    2012-01-01

    the Roman Warm Period (~ 2000 cal yr BP) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (1200–800 cal yr BP). Long springs and mild summers occurred during the Little Ice Age, and these conditions persist to the present. Although the proxy data indicate effectively wet summer conditions in the early Holocene and drier conditions in the middle and late Holocene, none point specifically to changes in summer precipitation as the cause. Instead, summer conditions were governed by multi-seasonal controls on effective moisture that operated over multiple time scales.

  4. Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activity in Languedoc (southern France)

    OpenAIRE

    Azuara , J; Combourieu-Nebout , N; Lebreton , V; Mazier , F; Müller , S D; Dezileau , L ,

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Holocene climate fluctuations and human activity since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediter-ranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to better understand Mediterranean pale-oenvironmental changes over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High-resolution pollen analyses were un-dertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamic...

  5. A Stalagmite record of Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon variability from the Australian tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denniston, Rhawn F.; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Polyak, Victor J.; Brown, Josephine R.; Asmerom, Yemane; Wanamaker, Alan D.; LaPointe, Zachary; Ellerbroek, Rebecca; Barthelmes, Michael; Cleary, Daniel; Cugley, John; Woods, David; Humphreys, William F.

    2013-10-01

    Oxygen isotopic data from a suite of calcite and aragonite stalagmites from cave KNI-51, located in the eastern Kimberley region of tropical Western Australia, represent the first absolute-dated, high-resolution speleothem record of the Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) from the Australian tropics. Stalagmite oxygen isotopic values track monsoon intensity via amount effects in precipitation and reveal a dynamic Holocene IASM which strengthened in the early Holocene, decreased in strength by 4 ka, with a further decrease from ˜2 to 1 ka, before strengthening again at 1 ka to years to levels similar to those between 4 and 2 ka. The relationships between the KNI-51 IASM reconstruction and those from published speleothem time series from Flores and Borneo, in combination with other data sets, appear largely inconsistent with changes in the position and/or organization of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Instead, we argue that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may have played a dominant role in driving IASM variability since at least the middle Holocene. Given the muted modern monsoon rainfall responses to most El Niño events in the Kimberley, an impact of ENSO on regional monsoon precipitation over northwestern Australia would suggest non-stationarity in the long-term relationship between ENSO forcing and IASM rainfall, possibly due to changes in the mean state of the tropical Pacific over the Holocene.

  6. Sensitivity of sediment magnetic records to climate change during Holocene for the northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Tingping; Li, Mingkun; Zhao, Xiang; Zhu, Zhaoyu; Tian, Chengjing; Qiu, Yan; Peng, Xuechao; Hu, Qiao

    2016-05-01

    Magnetic property has been proved to be a sensitive proxy to climate change for both terrestrial and marine sediments. Based on the schedule frame established by AMS 14C dating of foraminifera, detail magnetic analyses were performed for core PC24 sediments at sampling intervals of 2 cm to discuss magnetic sensitivity of marine sediment to climate during Holocene for the northern South China Sea. The results indicated that: 1) Concentration dependent magnetic parameters are positive corresponding to variation of temperature. The frequency dependent susceptibility coefficient basically reflected the variation in humidity; 2) XARM/SIRM was more sensitive to detrital magnetite particles and SIRM/X was more effective to biogenic magnetite particles. Variations of XARM/SIRM and SIRM/X are corresponding to precipitation and temperature, respectively; 3) the Holocene Megathermal in the study area was identified as 7.5-3.4 cal. ka BP. The warmest stage of Holocene for the study area should be during 6.1 to 3.9 cal. ka BP; 4) The 8 ka cold event was characterized as cold and dry during 8.55 to 8.25 cal. ka BP; 5) During early and middle Holocene, the climate combinations were warm dry and cold wet. It turned to warm and wet after 2.7 cal. ka BP.

  7. Sensitivity of sediment magnetic records to climate change during Holocene for the northern South China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingping eOuyang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Magnetic property has been proved to be a sensitive proxy to climate change for both terrestrial and marine sediments. Based on the schedule frame established by AMS 14C dating of foraminifera, detail magnetic analyses were performed for core PC24 sediments at sampling intervals of 2 cm to discuss magnetic sensitivity of marine sediment to climate during Holocene for the northern South China Sea. The results indicated that: 1 Concentration dependent magnetic parameters are positive corresponding to variation of temperature. The frequency dependent susceptibility coefficient basically reflected the variation in humidity; 2 XARM/SIRM was more sensitive to detrital magnetite particles and SIRM/X was more effective to biogenic magnetite particles. Variations of XARM/SIRM and SIRM/X are corresponding to precipitation and temperature, respectively; 3 the Holocene Megathermal in the study area was identified as 7.5-3.4 cal. ka BP. The warmest stage of Holocene for the study area should be during 6.1 to 3.9 cal. ka BP; 4 The 8 ka cold event was characterized as cold and dry during 8.55 to 8.25 cal. ka BP; 5 During early and middle Holocene, the climate combinations were warm dry and cold wet. It turned to warm and wet after 2.7 cal. ka BP.

  8. Paleolimnological reconstruction of environmental variability during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene in the south-east Baltic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kublitskiy, Iurii; Subetto, Dmitriy; Druzhinina, Olga; Kulkova, Marianna; Arslanov, Khikmatula

    2016-04-01

    The main goal of our research is the high-resolution reconstruction of environmental and climatic changes in SE Baltic region since the Last Glacial Maximum by palaeolimnological data. The 6 objects - lakes and peat-bogs, were studied since 2009 in the Kaliningrad region, Russian Federation. According to palaeolimnological studies of bottom sediments of the Kamyshovoe Lake (N 54°22,6`; E22°42,8`, 189 m a.s.l.), located in the Vishtynets Highland, the south-east part of Kaliningrad district, the environmental and climatic changes after the late glacial have been reconstructed. At that moment the radiocarbon and loss-on-ignition (LOI) data, geochemistry and diatom analysis for the whole sediment core, and pollen analyze for the bottom part of the core have been completed. According to the pollen data the Alleröd interstadial starts at 13 200 cal. yrs BP and is marked by the rising of birch and pine pollen. The transition to the Younger Dryas around 12 700 cal. yrs BP corresponds with the development of patches of shrublands in which light-demanding species, such as juniper, flourished and communities of steppe herbs. The late Preboreal is marked by the appearance of Populus and an increase of the role of grasses in the vegetation cover 11 300-11 100 cal. yrs BP (Druzinina et al., 2015). The Holocene climatic zones have been identified by LOI and geochemistry analyses. The Boreal period started about 10 200 cal. yrs BP, Atlantic around 9100 cal. yrs BP, Subboreal 5800 cal. yrs BP, and Subatlantic 3200 cal. yrs BP (Kublitskiy et al., 2015). During the conference the new palaeolimnological data of environmental variability during the late Pleistocene and Holocene in SE Baltic region will be presented. Acknowledgements The investigations have been granted by the Russian Fund for Basic Research (12-05-33013, 13-05-41457, 15-35-50721). References Druzhinina, O., Subetto, D., Stančikaitė, M., Vaikutienė, G., Kublitsky, J., Arslanov, Kh., 2015. Sediment record from the

  9. Holocene Multi-Decadal to Millennial-Scale Hydrologic Variability on the South American Altiplano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Ekdahl, E.; Burns, S.

    2006-12-01

    On orbital timescales, lacustrine sediment records in the tropical central Andes show massive changes in lake level due to mechanisms related to global-scale drivers, varying at precessional timescales. Here we use stable isotopic and diatom records from two lakes in the Lake Titicaca drainage basin to reconstruct multi- decadal to millennial scale precipitation variability during the last 7000 to 8000 years. The records are tightly coupled at multi-decadal to millennial scales with each other and with lake-level fluctuations in Lake Titicaca, indicating that the lakes are recording a regional climate signal. A quantitative reconstruction of precipitation from stable isotopic data indicates that the central Andes underwent significant wet to dry alternations at multi- centennial frequencies with an amplitude of 30 to 40% of total precipitation. A strong millennial-scale component, similar in duration to periods of increased ice rafted debris flux in the North Atlantic, is observed in both lake records, suggesting that tropical North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) variability may partly control regional precipitation. No clear relationship is evident between these records and the inferred ENSO history from Lago Pallcacocha in the northern tropical Andes. In the instrumental period, regional precipitation variability on inter-annual timescales is clearly influenced by Pacific modes; for example, most El Ninos produce dry and warm conditions in this part of the central Andes. However, on longer timescales, the control of tropical Pacific modes is less clear. Our reconstructions suggest that the cold intervals of the Holocene Bond events are periods of increased precipitation in the central Andes, thus indicating an anti-phasing of precipitation variation in the southern tropics of South America relative to the Northern Hemisphere monsoon region.

  10. High-resolution paleoclimate records of Holocene hydroclimatic variability in the Eastern Colombian Andes from Lago de Tota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M. N.; Bird, B. W.; Escobar, J.; Polissar, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Northern Hemisphere (NH) South American Monsoon (SAM) is a significant source of precipitation for the North Andes (north of 0˚) and has major control over regional hydroclimate variability. Holocene-length histories of NH SAM variability are few compared to the Southern Hemisphere (SH), limiting understanding of how these systems are connected on orbital and shorter timescales. Here, we present multi-proxy lake-sediment-based paleoclimate and paleohydrologic reconstructions from Lago de Tota, Colombia, using sedimentological, geochemical and leaf-wax hydrogen isotopic indicators from radiometically dated cores. The results indicate periods of wet and dry climate phases during the past 9000 BP with an average Holocene sedimentation rate 33cm/kyr. An increase in total organic matter (TOM) content and finer grain-size distributions was observed from 8000 to 3200 BP, suggesting a period of high lake level. This was followed by lower TOM and coarser grain sizes, suggesting lower lake levels from 3200 BP to the present. Although Tota's lake level pattern is antiphased with other lake level reconstructions from the NH and SH Andes, it is consistent with hypothesized changes in atmospheric convection over the Andes during the Holocene and the way in which they would be modified by the so-called dry island effect in the Colombian Andes. This suggests that a common forcing mechanism can be invoked to explain differing millennial-scale Andean hydroclimate changes, namely atmospheric convection. Orbital and Pacific atmosphere-forcing are therefore likely to have played a significant role in driving pan-Andean hydroclimate variability based on their inter-hemispheric influence on Andean convection.

  11. A 13,500 Year Record of Holocene Climate, Fire and Vegetation from Swan Lake, Idaho, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, D.; Anderson, L.; Miller, D. M.; Rosario, J. J.; Starratt, S.; McGeehin, J. P.; Bright, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    Modern climate dynamics in the western US are largely determined by a combination of two factors: 1) the strength and position of midlatitude pressure systems, which, in turn, are responsible for the generation and trajectory of winter storms, and 2) the strength of the North America Monsoon (NAM) which brings summer precipitation northward in response to northern hemisphere warming. Paleoclimate records from the Great Basin of the western US suggest some coherence in the timing of major climatic shifts during the Holocene. However, knowledge of the timing and magnitude of these changes at local scales, which can help explain the relative contribution of midlatitude winter storms vs. NAM, is lacking in many places. Here we present new data that constrain the timing and magnitude of late glacial and Holocene climate variability in the northeastern Great Basin, provide insight into past spatial variability of precipitation patterns in the western US, and improve our understanding of regional scale influences on Great Basin climate. In 2011, a 7.65 m sediment core was raised from Swan Lake, a small wetland located in southeastern Idaho that was formed in the spillway channel created by the catastrophic flooding of Lake Bonneville ~18 ka BP. Pollen, charcoal, clumped isotope, diatom, ostracod, and sedimentological data are used to reconstruct vegetation, fire history, and lake level/groundwater flux over the last 13,500 years. Age control is provided by 19 AMS radiocarbon determinations, which are reported as thousands of calibrated years before present (ka BP). This effort builds on earlier work by Bright (1966) who reported on pollen, macrofossils, and sediment type from Swan Lake. Our data suggest cool and wet conditions prevailed until around 12.3 ka BP, after which a drying trend begins. The early Holocene was marked by a warmer, drier climate, which persisted until around 6.2 ka BP. Moister conditions after 6.2 ka BP likely resulted from a combination of enhanced

  12. A review on Holocene climate changes in Indian subcontinent

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.

    and terrestrial records document that the climate started shifting from humid to dry arid from 5 ka and reached an arid phase at 3.5 ka. In other tropics of the world also onset of arid climate was documented during the same period. The onset of arid climate at 3...

  13. Testing the Millennial-Scale Holocene Solar-Climate Connection in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khider, D.; Emile-Geay, J.; McKay, N.; Jackson, C. S.; Routson, C.

    2016-12-01

    The existence of 1000 and 2500-year periodicities found in reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) and a number of Holocene climate records has led to the hypothesis of a causal relationship. However, attributing Holocene millennial-scale variability to solar forcing requires a mechanism by which small changes in total irradiance can influence a global climate response. One possible amplifier within the climate system is the ocean. If this is the case, then we need to know more about where and how this may be occurring. On the other hand, the similarity in spectral peaks could be merely coincidental, and this should be made apparent by a lack of coherence in how that power and phasing are distributed in time and space. The plausibility of the solar forcing hypothesis is assessed through a Bayesian model of the age uncertainties affecting marine sedimentary records that is propagated through spectral analysis of the climate and forcing signals at key frequencies. Preliminary work on Mg/Ca and alkenone records from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool suggests that despite large uncertainties in the location of the spectral peaks within each individual record arising from age model uncertainty, sea surface variability on timescales of 1025±36 years and 2427±133 years (±standard error of the mean of the median periodicity in each record) are present in at least 95% and 70% of the ensemble spectra, respectively. However, we find a long phase delay between the peak in forcing and the maximum response in at least one of the records, challenging the solar forcing hypothesis and requiring further investigation between low- and high-latitude signals. Remarkably, all records suggest a periodicity near 1470±85 years, reminiscent of the cycles characteristic of Marine Isotope Stage 3; these cycles are absent from existing records of TSI, further questioning the millennial solar-climate connection.

  14. Hydroclimate variability of High Arctic Svalbard during the Holocene inferred from hydrogen isotopes of leaf waxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balascio, Nicholas L.; D'Andrea, William J.; Gjerde, Marthe; Bakke, Jostein

    2018-03-01

    The response of the Arctic hydrologic cycle to global warming includes changes in precipitation patterns and moisture availability associated with variable sea ice extent and modes of atmospheric circulation. Reconstructions of past hydroclimate changes help constrain the natural range of these systems, identify the manners in which they respond to different forcing mechanisms, and reveal their connections to other components of the climate system, all of which lead to a better understanding of present and future changes. Here we examine hydroclimate changes during the Holocene in the High Arctic archipelago of Svalbard by reconstructing the isotopic composition of precipitation. We measured the hydrogen isotopic composition (δD values) of leaf wax compounds (n-alkanes; C25-C31) in a sediment core from Lake Hakluytvatnet on the island of Amsterdamøya, northwest Spitsbergen. We interpret δD values of mid-chain (C25) and long-chain (C29, C31) length n-alkanes to represent changes in the isotopic composition of lake water and precipitation over the last 12.9 ka. After deglaciation of the catchment, water supply became restricted and the lake experienced significant evaporative isotopic enrichment indicating warmer conditions from 12.8 to 7.5 ka. The isotope values suggest an increase in the delivery of moisture from warmer sub-polar air masses between 12.8 and 9.5 ka, followed by generally warm, but unstable conditions between 9.5 and 7.5 ka, possibly indicating a response to meltwater forcing. Sedimentary evidence indicates a hiatus in deposition c. 7.5-5.0 ka, likely as a result of desiccation of the lake. At c. 5.0 ka lacustrine sedimentation resumed and over the last 5 ka there was a progressive increase in the influence of polar air masses and colder conditions, which culminated in an abrupt shift to colder conditions at c. 1.8 ka. This late Holocene cooling ended c. 0.18 ka, when isotopic data indicate warmer conditions and greater influence of moisture

  15. Dust fluxes and iron fertilization in Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Fabrice; Tagliabue, Alessandro; Shaffer, Gary; Lamy, Frank; Winckler, Gisela; Farias, Laura; Gallardo, Laura; De Pol-Holz, Ricardo

    2015-07-01

    Mineral dust aerosols play a major role in present and past climates. To date, we rely on climate models for estimates of dust fluxes to calculate the impact of airborne micronutrients on biogeochemical cycles. Here we provide a new global dust flux data set for Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions based on observational data. A comparison with dust flux simulations highlights regional differences between observations and models. By forcing a biogeochemical model with our new data set and using this model's results to guide a millennial-scale Earth System Model simulation, we calculate the impact of enhanced glacial oceanic iron deposition on the LGM-Holocene carbon cycle. On centennial timescales, the higher LGM dust deposition results in a weak reduction of pump. This is followed by a further ~10 ppm reduction over millennial timescales due to greater carbon burial and carbonate compensation.

  16. Detecting vegetation-precipitation feedbacks in mid-Holocene North Africa from two climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yi; Notaro, Michael; Liu, Zhengyu; Gallimore, Robert; Levis, Samuel; Kutzbach, John E.

    2008-03-31

    Using two climate-vegetation model simulations from the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 2), we investigate vegetation-precipitation feedbacks across North Africa during the mid-Holocene. From mid-Holocene snapshot runs of FOAM and CCSM2, we detect a negative feedback at the annual timescale with our statistical analysis. Using the Monte- Carlo bootstrap method, the annual negative feedback is further confirmed to be significant in both simulations. Additional analysis shows that this negative interaction is partially caused by the competition between evaporation and transpiration in North African grasslands. Furthermore, we find the feedbacks decrease with increasing timescales, and change signs from positive to negative at increasing timescales in FOAM. The proposed mechanism for this sign switch is associated with the different persistent timescales of upper and lower soil water contents, and their interactions with vegetation and atmospheric precipitation.

  17. Holocene vegetation and climate change on the Haanja heights, South-East Estonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saarse, Leili; Rajamaee, Raivo

    1997-01-01

    The development of forests on the Haanja Heights has been controlled by external factors, including climate, soils, hydrology, and human impact. The sediment sequence from Lake Kirikumaee, which covers about 12 000 years, records the vegetation history throughout the Late Glacial and Holocene. In the Alleroed, woodland tundra with sparse birch and willow was established. Grass-shrub tundra in the Younger Dryas was replaced by birch forest in the Pre-Boreal. During the Holocene two major shifts in vegetation dynamics occurred: the first about 8500 BP with a sharp decline in Betula-Pinus forest and development of broad-leaved forest, and the second about 3500 BP, with a decline in broad-leaved forest and regeneration of Pinus-Betula forest with a high share of Picea. The climate modelling, based on pollen record and lake-level changes, suggest cold, severe climate with low precipitation values in the early Pre-Boreal. Between 9500-8500 BP the climate was rather stable. The lake level first rose, then stabilized, and finally dropped. The sharp climate amelioration in the late Boreal together with the humidity increase resulted in a lake-level rise. The decreased precipitation and rather high summer temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and reduced water balance are characteristic of the Sub-Boreal. Since 3500 BP, the climate deteriorated and mixed coniferous forest started to dominate. Several small climatic fluctuations, including the Little Ice Age cooling, have been traced by modelling. (author)

  18. Novel sedimentological fingerprints link shifting depositional processes to Holocene climate transitions in East Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Bilt, Willem G. M.; Rea, Brice; Spagnolo, Matteo; Roerdink, Desiree L.; Jørgensen, Steffen L.; Bakke, Jostein

    2018-05-01

    The Arctic warms faster than any other region of our planet. Besides melting glaciers, thawing permafrost and decreasing sea-ice, this amplified response affects earth surface processes. This geomorphological expression of climate change may alter landscapes and increase the frequency and magnitude of geohazards like floods or mass-movements. Beyond the short span of sparse monitoring time series, geological archives provide a valuable long-term context for future risk assessment. Lake sediment sequences are particularly promising in this respect as continuous recorders of surface process change. Over the past decade, the emergence of new techniques that characterize depositional signatures in more detail has enhanced this potential. Here, we present a well-dated Holocene-length lake sediment sequence from Ammassalik Island on southeast Greenland. This area is particularly sensitive to regional shifts in the Arctic climate system due to its location near the sea-ice limit, the Greenland Ice Sheet and the convergence of polar and Atlantic waters. The expression of Holocene change is fingerprinted using physical (grain size, organic content, density), visual (3-D Computed Tomography) and geochemical (X-Ray Fluorescence, X-Ray Diffraction) evidence. We show that three sharp transitions characterize the Holocene evolution of Ymer Lake. Between 10 and 9.5 cal. ka BP, rapid local glacier loss from the lake catchment culminated in an outburst flood. Following a quiescent Holocene climatic optimum, Neoglacial cooling, lengthening lake ice cover and shifting wind patterns prompted in-lake avalanching of sediments from 4.2 cal. ka BP onwards. Finally, glaciers reformed in the catchment around 1.2 cal. ka BP. The timing of these shifts is consistent with the regional expression of deglaciation, Neoglacial cooling and Little Ice Age-type glacier growth, respectively. The novel multi-proxy approach applied in this study rigorously links depositional sediment signatures to

  19. Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregoire, Lauren J.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Valdes, Paul J.; Stevenson, Samantha

    2018-02-01

    The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40° and 50°N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5-8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering during the Holocene are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing is unlikely to have played a major role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

  20. Origin and dynamics of the northern South American coastal savanna belt during the Holocene - the role of climate, sea-level, fire and humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh, Kamaleddin; Cohen, Marcelo; Behling, Hermann

    2015-08-01

    Presence of a coastal savanna belt expanding from British Guiana to northeastern Brazil cannot be explained by present-day climate. Using pollen and charcoal analyses on an 11.6 k old sediment core from a coastal depression in the savanna belt near the mouth of the Amazon River we investigated the paleoenvironmental history to shed light on this question. Results indicate that small areas of savanna accompanied by a forest type composed primarily by the genus Micropholis (Sapotaceae) that has no modern analog existed at the beginning of the Holocene. After 11,200 cal yr BP, savanna accompanied by few trees replaced the forest. In depressions swamp forest developed and by ca 10,000 cal yr BP replaced by Mauritia swamps. Between 8500 and 5600 cal yr BP gallery forest (composed mainly of Euphorbiaceae) and swamp forest succeeded the treeless savanna. The modern vegetation with alternating gallery forest and savanna developed after 5600 cal yr BP. We suggest that the early Holocene no-analog forest is a relict of previously more extensive forest under cooler and moister Lateglacial conditions. The early Holocene savanna expansion indicates a drier phase probably related to the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) towards its northernmost position. The mid-Holocene forest expansion is probably a result of the combined influence of equatorwards shift of ITCZ joining the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The ecosystem variability during the last 5600 cal yr BP, formed perhaps under influence of intensified ENSO condition. High charcoal concentrations, especially during the early Holocene, indicate that natural and/or anthropogenic fires may have maintained the savanna. However, our results propose that climate change is the main driving factor for the formation of the coastal savanna in this region. Our results also show that the early Holocene sea level rise established mangroves near the study site until 7500 cal yr BP and promoted swamp formation in

  1. Impact of a drier Early-Mid-Holocene climate upon Amazonian forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayle, Francis E; Power, Mitchell J

    2008-05-27

    This paper uses a palaeoecological approach to examine the impact of drier climatic conditions of the Early-Mid-Holocene (ca 8000-4000 years ago) upon Amazonia's forests and their fire regimes. Palaeovegetation (pollen data) and palaeofire (charcoal) records are synthesized from 20 sites within the present tropical forest biome, and the underlying causes of any emergent patterns or changes are explored by reference to independent palaeoclimate data and present-day patterns of precipitation, forest cover and fire activity across Amazonia. During the Early-Mid-Holocene, Andean cloud forest taxa were replaced by lowland tree taxa as the cloud base rose while lowland ecotonal areas, which are presently covered by evergreen rainforest, were instead dominated by savannahs and/or semi-deciduous dry forests. Elsewhere in the Amazon Basin there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in patterns of vegetation disturbance and fire, which probably reflects the complex heterogeneous patterns in precipitation and seasonality across the basin, and the interactions between climate change, drought- and fire susceptibility of the forests, and Palaeo-Indian land use. Our analysis shows that the forest biome in most parts of Amazonia appears to have been remarkably resilient to climatic conditions significantly drier than those of today, despite widespread evidence of forest burning. Only in ecotonal areas is there evidence of biome replacement in the Holocene. From this palaeoecological perspective, we argue against the Amazon forest 'dieback' scenario simulated for the future.

  2. Holocene vegetation, fire and climate interactions on the westernmost fringe of the Mediterranean Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Molino, César; García-Antón, Mercedes; Postigo-Mijarra, José M.; Morla, Carlos

    2013-01-01

    A new palaeoecological sequence from the western Iberian Central Range significantly contributes to the knowledge on the Holocene vegetation dynamics in central Iberia. This sequence supports the existence of time-transgressive changes in the vegetation cover during the beginning of the Holocene over these central Iberian mountains, specifically the replacement of boreal birch-pine forests with Mediterranean communities. Anthracological analyses also indicate the replacement of boreal pines (Pinus sylvestris) with Mediterranean ones (Pinus pinaster) during the early Holocene. The observed vegetation changes were generally synchronous with climatic phases previously reconstructed for the western Mediterranean region, and they suggest that the climatic trends were most similar to those recorded in the northern Mediterranean region and central Europe. Several cycles of secondary succession after fire ending with the recovery of mature forest have been identified, which demonstrates that the vegetation of western Iberia was highly resilient to fire disturbance. However, when the recurrence of fire crossed a certain threshold, the original forests were not able to completely recover and shrublands and grasslands became dominant; this occurred approximately 5800-5400 cal yr BP. Afterwards, heathlands established as the dominant vegetation, which were maintained by frequent and severe wildfires most likely associated with human activities in a climatic framework that was less suitable for temperate trees. Finally, our palaeoecological record provides guidelines on how to manage protected areas in Mediterranean mountains of southwestern Europe, especially regarding the conservation and restoration of temperate communities that are threatened there such as birch stands.

  3. Climate fluctuations during the Holocene in NW Iberia: High and low latitude linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pena, L. D.; Francés, G.; Diz, P.; Esparza, M.; Grimalt, J. O.; Nombela, M. A.; Alejo, I.

    2010-07-01

    High resolution benthic foraminiferal stable isotopes (δ 18O, δ 13C) and molecular biomarkers in the sediments are used here to infer rapid climatic changes for the last 8200 years in the Ría de Muros (NW Iberian Margin). Benthic foraminiferal δ 18O and δ 13C potentially register migrations in the position of the hydrographic front formed between two different intermediate water masses: Eastern North Atlantic Central Water of subpolar origin (ENACW sp) and subtropical origin (ENACW st). The molecular biomarkers in the sediment show a strong coupling between continental organic matter inputs and negative δ 13C values in benthic foraminifera. The rapid centennial and millennial events registered in these records have been compared with two well known North Atlantic Holocene records from the subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies off Cape Blanc, NW Africa and the subpolar Atlantic (Hematite Stained Grains percentage, subpolar North Atlantic). Comparison supports a strong link between high- and low-latitude climatic perturbations at centennial-millennial time scales during the Holocene. Spectral analyses also points to a pole-to-equator propagation of the so-called 1500 yr cycles. Our results demonstrate that during the Holocene, the NW Iberian Margin has undergone a series of rapid events which are likely triggered at high latitudes in the North Atlantic and are rapidly propagated towards lower latitudes. Conceivably, the propagation of these rapid climatic changes involves a shift in atmospheric and oceanic circulatory systems.

  4. Late Holocene monsoon climate as evidenced by proxy records from a lacustrine sediment sequence in western Guangdong, South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Wei; Cao, jiayuan; Xue, Jibin; Ouyang, Jun; Tang, Xiaohong; Yin, Huanling; Liao, Congyun; Long, Kun

    2014-02-01

    The study of a 300-cm-thick exposed lacustrine sediment section in the Hedong village in Zhaoqing area which is located in sub-tropical west Guangdong Province in South China, demonstrates that the lacustrine sedimentary sequence possibly contains evidence for exploring variation of Asian monsoon climate. Multi-proxy records, including the humification intensity, total organic carbon, and grain size fractions, reveal a general trend towards dry and cold conditions in the late Holocene that this is because of a decrease in solar insolation on an orbital scale. Three intensified Asian summer monsoon (ASM) intervals (˜3300-3000 cal yr BP, ˜2600-1600 cal yr BP, and ˜900-600 cal yr BP), and three weakened ASM intervals (˜4000-3300 cal yr BP, ˜3000-2600 cal yr BP, and ˜1600-900 cal yr BP) are identified. Our humification record (HDcal) shows a good correlation on multi-centennial scale with the tree ring Δ14C record, a proxy of solar activity. A spectral analysis of HDcal reveals four significant cycles, i.e., ˜1250 yr, 300 yr, 110 yr, and 70 yr, and most of these cycles are related to the solar activity. Our findings indicate that solar output and oceanic-atmospheric circulation probably have influenced the late Holocene climate variability in the study region.

  5. Floodplain construction of the Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas, USA: response to Holocene climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Stephen A.; Peterson, John A.

    2013-04-01

    The Rio Grande is one of the larger rivers in North America, and the development of its floodplain is related to Holocene climate and climate change. The late Pleistocene through early Holocene channel is characterized by a meander or braided system with lateral cutting and backfilling, resulting in the valley-wide deposition of massive to cross-bedded, fine-to-medium textured sand. The late Pleistocene-early Holocene floodplain is also the sand source for the adjacent Bolson sand sheet. The sand sheet stopped accumulating new sand 5000 yrs ago, an event directly related to the shutting off of the sand supply caused by the deposition of overbank muds that covered and sealed the floodplain surface. During the middle Holocene, the river may have dried intermittently with the floodplain becoming deflated and local sand dunes forming on the floodplain. After 5000 yrs the climate was less arid and the river shifted to a regime of increased flooding and overbank deposition of silt and clay. By 2500 yrs, a late Holocene period of wet climate resulted in further overbank deposition and the formation of a cumulic Mollisol across the floodplain, the Socorro paleosol. The period of wet climate corresponds to the Audubon Neoglacial and active rock glaciers in the southern Rocky Mountains, speleothem growth in nearby caves, and other evidence for wet-cool conditions in the region. After 1000 yrs, the climate became drier, and the deposition and accumulation of overbank muds by the flooding Rio Grande came to a halt. Even though the river has flooded often in historic times, and presumably during late prehistoric times as well, there is little evidence for deposition of overbank sediments on the floodplain since A.D. 1000. Accordingly, the present-day surface of the Lower Valley is ten centuries old. Three channels occur on the US side of the Lower Valley floodplain, and during the past 2500 yrs stream flow has shifted from one to the other by the avulsion process of channel

  6. Large floods and climatic change during the Holocene on the Ara River, Central Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossman, Michael J.

    2001-07-01

    A reconstruction of part of the Holocene large flood record for the Ara River in central Japan is presented. Maximum intermediate gravel-size dimensions of terrace and modern floodplain gravels were measured along an 18-km reach of the river and were used in tractive force equations to estimate minimum competent flood depths. Results suggest that the magnitudes of large floods on the Ara River have varied in a non-random fashion since the end of the last glacial period. Large floods with greater magnitudes occurred during the warming period of the post-glacial and the warmer early to middle Holocene (to ˜5500 years BP). A shift in the magnitudes of large floods occurred ˜5500-5000 years BP. From this time, during the cooler middle to late Holocene, large floods generally had lower magnitudes. In the modern period, large flood magnitudes are the largest in the data set. As typhoons are the main cause of large floods on the Ara River in the modern record, the variation in large flood magnitudes suggests that the incidence of typhoon visits to the central Japan changed as the climate changed during the Holocene. Further, significant dates in the large flood record on the Ara River correspond to significant dates in Europe and the USA.

  7. Late holocene primary productivity and sea surface temperature variations in the northeastern Arabian Sea: Implications for winter monsoon variability.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Boll, A.; Luckge, A.; Munz, P.; Forke, S.; Schulz, H.; Ramaswamy, V.; Rixen, T.; Gaye, B.; Emeis, K.-C.

    changes in winter monsoon strength with winds from the northeast that drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity in the northeastern Arabian Sea. To establish a high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene, we...

  8. Holocene temperature variability revealed by brGDGTs in subtropical southwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, X.; Zhao, C.

    2017-12-01

    Subtropical areas are important source region of moisture and heat in global climate system. Paleoclimate reconstructions from these regions, especially quantitative records, would not only help to better understand the nature of climate system through time, but also provide important constraining dataset for long-term ecosystem variations in these ecological important areas. To date, quantitative climate records with reliable chronological controls are still limited from terrestrial archives in subtropical areas. Here we present a 50-year-resolution quantitative temperature record throughout the Holocene based on branched GDGTs at a small alpine lake, Tiancai Lake (26°38'E, 99°43'N, 3898 m.a.s.l) in southwestern China. The record is based on a temporal calibration between instrumental mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and brGDGT compounds (GDGT-IIIa, GDGT-IIa', GDGT-IIb, GDGT-Ia and GDGT-Ic). The MAAT was relatively low -0.6 ° between 11 and 7.5 ka, then abruptly increased 1 ° to 4 °until 7 ka. The MAAT was relatively warm 2° between 7 and 1 ka, then decreased to 1° over the last 1 ka. The Middle to Late Holocene was 3 ° warmer than the Early Holocene. The MAAT variation at Lake Tiancai is supported by changes in evergreen oaks and Tsuga from the same sediment core, suggesting that the growth of cold-tolerant forest in place of subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest has been driven by the decrease in MAAT. The early Holocene cold interval revealed by our record and pollen data is different with the chironomid-based summer temperature reconstruction from the same lake, the latter has been driven by summer insolation. This difference suggests that a pronounced winter contribution to the mean annual temperature during the early Holocene, which was probably caused by a low winter insolation, and strengthened by a sparse vegetation cover and influences of winter ice/snow cover in tropical high latitude regions.

  9. Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    deMenocal, P B

    2001-04-27

    Modern complex societies exhibit marked resilience to interannual-to- decadal droughts, but cultural responses to multidecadal-to-multicentury droughts can only be addressed by integrating detailed archaeological and paleoclimatic records. Four case studies drawn from New and Old World civilizations document societal responses to prolonged drought, including population dislocations, urban abandonment, and state collapse. Further study of past cultural adaptations to persistent climate change may provide valuable perspective on possible responses of modern societies to future climate change.

  10. Paleoclimate from ice cores : abrupt climate change and the prolonged Holocene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, J.W.C.

    2001-01-01

    Ice cores provide valuable information about the Earth's past climates and past environments. They can also help in predicting future climates and the nature of climate change. Recent findings in ice cores have shown large and abrupt climate changes in the past. This paper addressed abrupt climate changes and the peculiar nature of the Holocene. An abrupt climate change is a shift of 5 degrees C in mean annual temperature in less than 50 years. This is considered to be the most threatening aspect of potential future climate change since it leaves very little time for adaptation by humans or any other part of the Earth's ecosystem. This paper also discussed the arrival of the next glacial period. In the past 50 years, scientists have recognized the importance of the Earth's orbit around the sun in pacing the occurrence of large ice sheets. The timing of orbital forcing suggests that the Earth is overdue for the next major glaciation. The reason for this anomaly was discussed. Abrupt climate shifts seem to be caused by mode changes in sensitive points in the climate system, such as the North Atlantic Deep Water Formation and its impact on sea ice cover in the North Atlantic. These changes have been observed in ice cores in Greenland but they are not restricted to Greenland. Evidence from Antarctic ice cores suggest that abrupt climate change may also occur in the Southern Hemisphere. The Vostok ice core in Antarctica indicates that the 11,000 year long interglacial period that we are in right now is longer than the previous four interglacial periods. The Holocene epoch is unique because both methane and carbon dioxide rise in the last 6,000 years, an atypical response from these greenhouse gases during an interglacial period. It was suggested that the rise in methane can be attributed to human activities. 13 refs., 2 figs

  11. Fire history and climate variability during the Mid-Late Holocene in the Picos de Europa (Cantabrian Mountains, NW Spain), based on sedimentary sequence of Belbín

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Fernández, Jesús; Nieuwendam, Alexandre; Oliva, Marc; Lopes, Vera; Cruces, Anabela; Conceição Freitas, Maria; Janeiro, Ana; López-Sáez, José Antonio; García-Hernández, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    The environmental changes during the last millennia in the Mediterranian Region (including the Cantabrian Mountains in the NW part of the Iberian Peninsula) are partially related to fire activity, generated by early human societies for grazing purposes. Fire activity has mostly been reconstructed based on the analysis of pollen, spores and other macro- and microscopic organic remains, such as charcoal particles. However, new techniques (as the analysis of micro-scale frost weathering of quartz grains), can provide further information about the magnitude and intensity of fire as a landscape modeler. The purpose of this work was to analyze a sedimentary sequence collected from Belbín depression in the Western Massif of the Picos de Europa (Cantabrian Mountains, NW Spain) by using an innovative multi-proxy approach, in order to reconstruct the fire history in this area. The Picos de Europa Mountains constitute the highest and most extensive massif in the Cantabrian Mountains. This area encloses three different massifs separated by deep gorges carved by four rivers (Dobra, Cares, Duje and Deva). The Western Massif is the largest of the three units (137 km2). The Picos de Europa are essentially composed by Carboniferous limestones. This mountain area was heavily glaciated during the Last Glaciation, though the post-glacial environmental evolution is still poorly understood. Within the Western Massif, the mid-altitude area of Belbín is a karstic depression dammed by a lateral moraine generated by Enol Glacier during the Last Glaciation. Between 23 and 8 ky cal BP this depression was a lake that became progressively infilled with sediments, and nowadays it is occupied by grasslands (Ruiz-Fernández et al., 2016). In order to study the environmental changes during the Mid-Late Holocene in this massif, a 182 cm-long sequence was retrieved in the Belbín area. The core was subsampled every centimeter in the top most superficial 60 cm. The laboratory analyses were: 1

  12. Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene climate evolution controlled by sea-level change, Leeuwin Current, and Australian Monsoon in the Northwestern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishiwa, T.; Yokoyama, Y.; McHugh, C.; Reuning, L.; Gallagher, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    The transition from cold to warm conditions during the last deglaciation influenced climate variability in the Indian Ocean and Pacific as a result of submerge of continental shelf and variations in the Indonesian Throughflow and Australian Monsoon. The shallow continental shelf (Program Expedition 356 Indonesian Throughflow drilled in the northwestern Australian shallow continental shelf and recovered an interval from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene in Site U1461. Radiocarbon dating on macrofossils, foraminifera, and bulk organic matter provided a precise age-depth model, leading to high-resolved paleoclimate reconstruction. X-ray elemental analysis results are interpreted as an indicator of sedimentary environmental changes. The upper 20-m part of Site U1461 apparently records the climate transition from the LGM to Holocene in the northwestern Australia, which could be associated with sea-level change, Leeuwin Current activity, and the Australian Monsoon.

  13. Late Holocene spatio-temporal variability of the south Greenland Ice Sheet and adjacent mountain glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, G.; Carlson, A. E.; Rood, D. H.; Axford, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The late Holocene, with its spatially complex pattern of centennial-scale climate variation, is an ideal time period to test the response of the cryosphere to atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. The south Greenland Ice Sheet (sGrIS), with its proximity to areas of North Atlantic Deep Water formation and a large spectrum of glaciological regimes over a relatively small area, provides an excellent location to examine the spatial heterogeneity of ice-sheet and glacier responses to climate change. Here, we will present 50 Be-10 surface exposure ages from eight moraines in six locations around the margin of the sGrIS. These moraines are located just outboard of historical moraines, and will therefore allow us to constrain the timing of the most extensive prehistoric late-Holocene advance and retreat of ice margins draining the sGrIS and independent valley glaciers. The dataset includes both marine- and land-terminating glaciers draining the sGrIS, the low-altitude Qassimiut lobe, the high-altitude alpine Julianhåb ice cap and isolated valley glaciers. This diverse dataset will allow us to determine to what extent late-Holocene centennial-scale behavior of the ice-sheet and glacier margins were synchronous, perhaps in response to an external climate forcing, or more stochastic, governed instead by local factors such as basal thermal regime, bedrock topography, or microclimates. This has implications for understanding the forcings and responses of cryospheric changes at timescales relevant to human society. In addition to providing context for paleoclimatic and glacial geologic investigations, this work will inform future sea-level projections by providing targets for validating high-resolution ice-sheet and glacier models.

  14. Molecular records of climate variability and vegetation response since the Late Pleistocene in the Lake Victoria basin, East Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berke, M.A.; Johnson, T.C.; Werne, J.P.; Grice, K.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.

    2012-01-01

    New molecular proxies of temperature and hydrology are helping to constrain tropical climate change and elucidate possible forcing mechanisms during the Holocene. Here, we examine a similar to 14,000 year record of climate variability from Lake Victoria, East Africa, the world's second largest

  15. Strength of forest-albedo feedback in mid-Holocene climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Otto

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Reconstructions of the mid-Holocene climate, 6000 years before present, suggest that spring temperatures were higher at high northern latitudes compared to the pre-industrial period. A positive feedback between expansion of forest and climate presumably contributed to this warming. In the presence of snow, forests have a lower albedo than grass land. Therefore, the expansion of forest likely favoured a warming in spring, counteracting the lower insolation at the mid-Holocene.

    We investigate the sensitivity of the vegetation-atmosphere interaction under mid-Holocene orbital forcing with respect to the strength of the forest-albedo feedback by using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere-vegetation model (ECHAM5/JSBACH. We perform two sets of model simulations: a first set of simulations with a relatively weak reduction of albedo of snow by forest; and a second set of simulations with a relatively strong reduction of the albedo of snow by forest.

    We show that the parameterisation of the albedo of snow leads to uncertainties in the temperature signal. Compared to the set with weak snow masking, the simulations with strong snow masking reveal a spring warming that is three times higher, by 0.34 °C north of 60° N. This warming is related to a forest expansion of only 13%.

  16. Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activities in Languedoc (Southern France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azuara, J.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Lebreton, V.; Mazier, F.; Müller, S. D.; Dezileau, L.

    2015-09-01

    Holocene climate fluctuations and human activities since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to reconstruct Mediterranean paleoenvironments over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics over the last 4500 years. Results are compared with climatic, historical and archeological archives. A long-term aridification trend is highlighted during the Late Holocene and three superimposed arid events are recorded at 4600-4300, 2800-2400 and 1300-1100 cal BP. These periods of climatic instability coincide in time with the rapid climatic events depicted in the Atlantic Ocean (Bond et al., 2001). From the Bronze Age (4000 cal BP) to the end of the Iron Age (around 2000 cal BP), the spread of evergreen taxa and loss of forest cover result from anthropogenic impact. The Antiquity is characterized by a major reforestation event related to the concentration of rural activities and populations in coastal plains leading to forest recovery in the mountains. A major regional deforestation occurred at the beginning of the High Middle Ages. Around 1000 cal BP, forest cover is minimal while cover of olive, chestnut and walnut expands in relation to increasing human influence. The present day vegetation dominated by Mediterranean shrubland and pines has been in existence since the beginning of the 20th century.

  17. Anticyclonic atmospheric circulation as an analogue for the warm and dry mid-Holocene summer climate in central Scandinavia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Antonsson

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate reconstructions from central Scandinavia suggest that annual and summer temperatures were rising during the early Holocene and reached their maximum after 8000 cal yr BP. The period with highest temperatures was characterized by increasingly low lake-levels and dry climate, with driest and warmest conditions at about 7000 to 5000 cal yr BP. We compare the reconstructed climate pattern with simulations of a climate model for the last 9000 years and show that the model, which is predominantly driven by solar insolation patterns, suggests less prominent mid-Holocene dry and warm period in Scandinavia than the reconstructions. As an additional explanation for the reconstructed climate, we argue that the trend from the moist early Holocene towards dry and warm mid-Holocene was caused by a changing atmospheric circulation pattern with a mid-Holocene dominance of summer-time anticyclonic circulation. An extreme case of the anticyclonic conditions is the persistent blocking high, an atmospheric pressure pattern that at present often causes long spells of particularly dry and warm summer weather, or "Indian summers". The argument is tested with daily instrumental temperature and precipitation records in central Sweden and an objective circulation classification based on surface air pressure over the period 1900–2002. We conclude that the differences between the precipitation and temperature climates under anticyclonic and non-anticyclonic conditions are significant. Further, warm and dry combination, as indicated by mid-Holocene reconstructions, is a typical pattern under anticyclonic conditions. These results indicate that the presented hypothesis for the mid-Holocene climate is likely valid.

  18. Holocene climate dynamics in the central part of the East European plain (Russia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novenko, Elena

    2013-04-01

    The Holocene climate and vegetation dynamics in the broad-leaved forest zone of the central part of the East European plain have been reconstructed on the base of pollen, plant macrofossil, testate amoebae and radiocarbon data from the mire Klukva (N 53.834812, E 36.252488), located in the kast depression in the Upper Oka River basin (Tula region, European Russia). The reconstruction of main parameters of past climate (the mean annual temperature precipitation) was carried out by the "Best Modern Analog" approach. Reconstructions of vegetation show that in the early Holocene the territory was occupied mainly by birch and pine-birch forests. Significant changes in the plant cover of the Upper Oka River basin are attributed to the 7.5 cal kyr BP). The climatic conditions were favorable for development of the broad-leaved forests those persisted in this area up to industrial period. In the 17th century, when the population density greatly increased and watersheds were ploughed, natural vegetation communities were gradually destroyed and transformed into agricultural landscapes. According to obtained climatic reconstructions the period 10-8.5 cal kyr BP was relatively cold and wet, when the mean annual temperature was in 3°C lower and precipitation was in 50-100 mm higher then nowadays. The significant climate warming occurred in about 7.0-5.0 cal kyr BP (The Holocene thermal maximum): the mean annual temperature in 2°C exceeded the modern value and precipitation was close to that. The environment conditions were drier due to decrease of effective moisture. In the second part of the Holocene the sequence of second-, and even third-order climatic oscillations expressed against the background of the overall slight trend towards cooling have been determined. The most pronounced cool and wet intervals were reconstructed in 2.5-2.0 cal kyr BP and 1.5-1.3 cal kyr BP. The mean annual temperature decreased in 1.5-2 °C and precipitation rose in 200 mm in compare to modern

  19. Late Holocene Radiocarbon Variability in Northwest Atlantic Slope Waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sherwood, O; Edinger, E; Guilderson, T P; Ghaleb, B; Risk, M J; Scott, D B

    2008-08-15

    Deep-sea gorgonian corals secrete a 2-part skeleton of calcite, derived from dissolved inorganic carbon at depth, and gorgonin, derived from recently fixed and exported particulate organic matter. Radiocarbon contents of the calcite and gorgonin provide direct measures of seawater radiocarbon at depth and in the overlying surface waters, respectively. Using specimens collected from Northwest Atlantic slope waters, we generated radiocarbon records for surface and upper intermediate water layers spanning the pre- and post bomb-{sup 14}C eras. In Labrador Slope Water (LSW), convective mixing homogenizes the pre-bomb {Delta}{sup 14}C signature (-67 {+-} 4{per_thousand}) to at least 1000 m depth. Surface water bomb-{sup 14}C signals were lagged and damped (peaking at {approx} +45{per_thousand} in the early 1980s) relative to other regions of the northwest Atlantic, and intermediate water signals were damped further. Off southwest Nova Scotia, the vertical gradient in {Delta}{sup 14}C is much stronger. In surface water, pre-bomb {Delta}{sup 14}C averaged -75 {+-} 5{per_thousand}. At 250-475 m depth, prebomb {Delta}{sup 14}C oscillated quasi-decadally between -80 and -100{per_thousand}, likely reflecting interannual variability in the presence of Labrador Slope Water vs. Warm Slope Water (WSW). Finally, subfossil corals reveal no systematic changes in vertical {Delta}{sup 14}C gradients over the last 1200 years.

  20. Holocene glacier and climate variations in Vestfirðir, Iceland, from the modeling of Drangajökull ice cap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Leif S.; Flowers, Gwenn E.; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna Th; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.; Harning, David J.; Thorsteinsson, Thorsteinn; Magnússon, Eyjólfur; Pálsson, Finnur

    2018-06-01

    Drangajökull is a maritime ice cap located in northwest (Vestfirðir) Iceland. Drangajökull's evolution is therefore closely linked to atmospheric and ocean variability. In order to better constrain the Holocene climate and glacier history of Vestfirðir we model the past evolution of Drangajökull ice cap. Simulations from 10 ka to present are forced by general circulation model output, ice-core-based temperature reconstructions, and sea-surface temperature reconstructions. Based on these 10-thousand year simulations, Drangajökull did not persist through the Holocene. We estimate that air temperatures were 2.5-3.0 °C higher during the Holocene Thermal Maximum than the local 1960-1990 average. Simulations support Drangajökull's late Holocene inception between 2 and 1 ka, though intermittent ice likely occupied cirques as early as 2.6 ka. Drangajökull is primarily a Little Ice Age ice cap: it expanded between 1300 and 1750 CE, with the most rapid growth occurring between 1600 and 1750 CE. The maximum Holocene extent of Drangajökull occurred between 1700 and 1925 CE, despite the lowest late Holocene temperatures, occurring between 1650 and 1720 CE. Between 1700 and 1925 CE temperatures were likely 0.6-0.8 °C lower than the 1950-2015 reference temperature. The modern equilibrium line altitude (ELA) is bracketed by topographic thresholds: a 1 °C temperature increase from the modern ELA would eliminate the ice cap's accumulation area, while a reduction of 0.5 °C would lead to the rapid expansion of the ice cap across Vestfirðir. The proximity of Drangajökull to topographic thresholds may explain its late inception and rapid expansion during the Little Ice Age.

  1. Holocene Tree Line and Climate Change on the Queen Charlotte Islands, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellatt, Marlow G.; Mathewes, Rolf W.

    1997-07-01

    Palynological study of two subalpine ponds on the Queen Charlotte Islands reveals changes in tree line and climate during the Holocene. The findings agree with previous reconstructions, from nearby Louise Pond on the Queen Charlotte Islands, that suggest a warmer-than-present climate and higher-than-present tree lines in the early Holocene (ca. 9600-6600 14C yr B.P.). Basal ages at SC1 Pond and Shangri-La Bog indicate that the basins did not hold permanent water before 7200 14C yr B.P., consistent with a warmer and drier early Holocene previously inferred from Louise Pond. Pollen and plant macrofossils indicate the initial establishment of subalpine conditions by 6090 ± 90 14C yr B.P., similar to the 5790 ± 130 14C yr B.P. age for cooling inferred from Louise Pond. Conditions similar to present were established at SC1 Pond by 3460 ± 100 14C yr B.P., confirming the previous estimate of 3400 14C yr B.P. at Louise Pond. This 3400 14C yr B.P. vegetation shift on the Queen Charlotte Islands corresponds with the beginning of the Tiedemann glacial advance in the south-coastal mountains of British Columbia (ca. 3300 14C yr B.P.), the Peyto and Robson glacial advances between 3300 and 2800 14C yr B.P. in the Rocky Mountains, and climatic cooling inferred from palynological studies throughout southern British Columbia, northern Washington, and southeast Alaska. These findings confirm that changes in regional climate influenced changes in vegetation in coastal British Columbia.

  2. Broadleaf deciduous forest counterbalanced the direct effect of climate on Holocene fire regime in hemiboreal/boreal region (NE Europe)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurdean, Angelica; Veski, Siim; Florescu, Gabriela; Vannière, Boris; Pfeiffer, Mirjam; O'Hara, Robert B.; Stivrins, Normunds; Amon, Leeli; Heinsalu, Atko; Vassiljev, Jüri; Hickler, Thomas

    2017-08-01

    Disturbances by fire are essential for the functioning of boreal/hemiboreal forests, but knowledge of long-term fire regime dynamics is limited. We analysed macrocharcoal morphologies and pollen of a sediment record from Lake Lielais Svētiņu (eastern Latvia), and in conjunction with fire traits analysis present the first record of Holocene variability in fire regime, fuel sources and fire types in boreal forests of the Baltic region. We found a phase of moderate to high fire activity during the cool and moist early (mean fire return interval; mFRI of ∼280 years; 11,700-7500 cal yr BP) and the late (mFRI of ∼190 years; 4500-0 cal yr BP) Holocene and low fire activity (mFRI of ∼630 years) during the Holocene Thermal Optimum (7500-4500 cal yr BP). Charcoal morphotypes and the pollen record show the predominance of frequent surface fires, occasionally transitioning to the crown during Pinus sylvestris-Betula boreal forests and less frequent surface fires during the dominance of temperate deciduous forests. In contrast to the prevailing opinion that fires in boreal forests are mostly low to moderate severity surface fires, we found evidence for common occurrence of stand-replacing crown fires in Picea abies canopy. Our results highlight that charcoal morphotypes analysis allows for distinguishing the fuel types and surface from crown fires, therefore significantly advancing our interpretation of fire regime. Future warmer temperatures and increase in the frequency of dry spells and abundant biomass accumulation can enhance the fire risk on the one hand, but will probably promote the expansion of broadleaf deciduous forests to higher latitudes, on the other hand. By highlighting the capability of broadleaf deciduous forests to act as fire-suppressing landscape elements, our results suggest that fire activity may not increase in the Baltic area under future climate change.

  3. Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Maycock, A.; Valdes, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 ka to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40-50° N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5 ka - 8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing did not play a significant role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

  4. Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Paleoclimate simulations provide us with an opportunity to critically confront and evaluate the performance of climate models in simulating the response of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing and other boundary conditions. Hargreaves et al. (2011 analysed the reliability of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, PMIP2 model ensemble with respect to the MARGO sea surface temperature data synthesis (MARGO Project Members, 2009 for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP. Here we extend that work to include a new comprehensive collection of land surface data (Bartlein et al., 2011, and introduce a novel analysis of the predictive skill of the models. We include output from the PMIP3 experiments, from the two models for which suitable data are currently available. We also perform the same analyses for the PMIP2 mid-Holocene (6 ka BP ensembles and available proxy data sets. Our results are predominantly positive for the LGM, suggesting that as well as the global mean change, the models can reproduce the observed pattern of change on the broadest scales, such as the overall land–sea contrast and polar amplification, although the more detailed sub-continental scale patterns of change remains elusive. In contrast, our results for the mid-Holocene are substantially negative, with the models failing to reproduce the observed changes with any degree of skill. One cause of this problem could be that the globally- and annually-averaged forcing anomaly is very weak at the mid-Holocene, and so the results are dominated by the more localised regional patterns in the parts of globe for which data are available. The root cause of the model-data mismatch at these scales is unclear. If the proxy calibration is itself reliable, then representativity error in the data-model comparison, and missing climate feedbacks in the models are other possible sources of error.

  5. Holocene Glacier Fluctuations in the Peruvian Andes Indicate Northern Climate Linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Licciardi, Joseph M.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Taggart, Jean R.; Lund, David C.

    2009-09-01

    The role of the tropics in triggering, transmitting, and amplifying interhemispheric climate signals remains a key debate in paleoclimatology. Tropical glacier fluctuations provide important insight on regional paleoclimatic trends and forcings, but robust chronologies are scarce. Here, we report precise moraine ages from the Cordillera Vilcabamba (13°20‧S) of southern Peru that indicate prominent glacial events and associated climatic shifts in the outer tropics during the early Holocene and late in the “Little Ice Age” period. Our glacier chronologies differ from the New Zealand record but are broadly correlative with well-dated glacial records in Europe, suggesting climate linkages between the tropics and the North Atlantic region.

  6. Late Glacial to Early Holocene socio-ecological responses to climatic instability within the Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-López de Pablo, Javier; Jones, Samantha E.; Burjachs, Francesc

    2018-03-01

    The period spanning the Late Glacial and the Early Holocene (≈19-8.2 ka) witnessed a dramatic sequence of climate and palaeoenvironmental changes (Rasmussen et al., 2014). Interestingly, some of the most significant transformations ever documented in human Prehistory took place during this period such as the intensification of hunter-gatherer economic systems, the domestication process of wild plants and animals, and the spread of farming across Eurasia. Understanding the role of climate and environmental dynamics on long-term cultural and economic trajectories, as well as specific human responses to episodes of rapid climate change, still remains as one of the main challenges of archaeological research (Kintigh et al., 2014).

  7. Recently studied sedimentary records from the eastern Arabian Sea: Implications to Holocene monsoonal variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Agnihotri, R.; Kurian, S.

    stream_size 72460 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Earth_Sci_India_1_258.pdf.txt stream_source_info Earth_Sci_India_1_258.pdf.txt Content-Encoding UTF-8 Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Agnihotri http://www....earthscienceindia.info/Agnihotri.htm 1 of 14 10/15/2008 9:41 AM Earth Science India Vol.1 (IV), October, 2008, pp. 258-287 http://www.earthscienceindia.info/ Recently studied sedimentary records from the eastern Arabian Sea: Implications to Holocene monsoonal variability Rajesh...

  8. Human responses to Middle Holocene climate change on California's Channel Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennett, Douglas J.; Kennett, James P.; Erlandson, Jon M.; Cannariato, Kevin G.

    2007-02-01

    High-resolution archaeological and paleoenvironmental records from California's Channel Islands provide a unique opportunity to examine potential relationships between climatically induced environmental changes and prehistoric human behavioral responses. Available climate records in western North America (7-3.8 ka) indicate a severe dry interval between 6.3 and 4.8 ka embedded within a generally warm and dry Middle Holocene. Very dry conditions in western North America between 6.3 and 4.8 ka correlate with cold to moderate sea-surface temperatures (SST) along the southern California Coast evident in Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Core 893A/B (Santa Barbara Basin). An episode of inferred high marine productivity between 6.3 and 5.8 ka corresponds with the coldest estimated SSTs of the Middle Holocene, otherwise marked by warm/low productivity marine conditions (7.5-3.8 ka). The impact of this severe aridity on humans was different between the northern and southern Channel Islands, apparently related to degree of island isolation, size and productivity of islands relative to population, fresh water availability, and on-going social relationships between island and continental populations. Northern Channel Islanders seem to have been largely unaffected by this severe arid phase. In contrast, cultural changes on the southern Channel Islands were likely influenced by the climatically induced environmental changes. We suggest that productive marine conditions coupled with a dry terrestrial climate between 6.3 and 5.8 ka stimulated early village development and intensified fishing on the more remote southern islands. Contact with people on the adjacent southern California Coast increased during this time with increased participation in a down-the-line trade network extending into the western Great Basin and central Oregon. Genetic similarities between Middle Holocene burial populations on the southern Channel Islands and modern California Uto-Aztecan populations suggest

  9. Megalake Chad impact on climate and vegetation during the late Pliocene and the mid-Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Contoux

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Given the growing evidence for megalakes in the geological record, assessing their impact on climate and vegetation is important for the validation of palaeoclimate simulations and therefore the accuracy of model–data comparison in lacustrine environments. Megalake Chad (MLC occurrences are documented not only for the mid-Holocene but also for the Mio-Pliocene (Schuster et al., 2009. At this time, the surface covered by water would have reached up to ~350 000 km2 (Ghienne et al., 2002; Schuster et al., 2005; Leblanc et al., 2006, making it an important evaporation source, possibly modifying climate and vegetation in the Chad Basin. We investigated the impact of such a giant continental water area in two different climatic backgrounds within the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (PMIP3: the late Pliocene (3.3 to 3 Ma, i.e. the mid-Piacenzian warm period and the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP. In all simulations including MLC, precipitation is drastically reduced above the lake surface because deep convection is inhibited by overlying colder air. Meanwhile, convective activity is enhanced around MLC because of the wind increase generated by the flat surface of the megalake, transporting colder and moister air towards the eastern shore of the lake. The effect of MLC on precipitation and temperature is not sufficient to widely impact vegetation patterns. Nevertheless, tropical savanna is present in the Chad Basin in all climatic configurations, even without MLC presence, showing that the climate itself is the driver of favourable environments for sustainable hominid habitats.

  10. Temporal relationship between climate variability, Prosopis juliflora ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Kyuma

    Key words: Climate, drylands, livestock, Prosopis juliflora, variability vegetation, trends, mesquite. ... climate change is costly and predictions are that both it and its cost will escalate ... Resilience Alliance, 2010; Tennigkeit and Wilkes, 2008;.

  11. A multi-proxy reconstruction of Holocene climate change from Blessberg Cave, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Plessen, Birgit; Wenz, Sarah; Leonhardt, Jens; Tjallingii, Rik; Scholz, Denis; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Marwan, Norbert

    2016-04-01

    Although Holocene climate dynamics were relatively stable compared to glacial conditions, climatic changes had significant impact on ecosystems and human society on various timescales (Mayewski et al. 2004, Donges et al. 2015, Tan et al. 2015). Precious few high-resolution records on Holocene temperature and precipitation conditions in Central Europe are available (e.g., von Grafenstein et al. 1999, Fohlmeister et al. 2012). Here we present a speleothem-based reconstruction of past climate dynamics from Blessberg Cave, Thuringia, central Germany. Three calcitic stalagmites were recovered when the cave was discovered during tunneling operations in 2008. Samples BB-1, -2 and -3 were precisely dated by the 230Th/U-method, with errors between 10 and 160 years (2σ). The combined record covers large parts of the Holocene (10 - 0.4 ka BP). δ13C and δ18O were analysed at 100 μm resolution. To gain additional insights in infiltration conditions, Sr/Ca and S/Ca were measured on BB-1 and BB-3 using an Röntgenanalytik Eagle XXL μXRF scanner. Differences to other central European records (e.g., von Grafenstein et al. 1999, Fohlmeister et al. 2012) suggest complex interaction between multiple factors influencing speleothem δ18O in Blessberg Cave. Furthermore, no clear influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on our proxies is found. However, a link across the N Atlantic realm is indicated by a centennial-scale correlation between Blessberg δ18O values and minerogenic input into lake SS1220 in Greenland over the last 5 ka (Olsen et al. 2012). In addition, recurrence analysis indicates an imprint of Atlantic Bond events on Blessberg δ18O values (Marwan et al. 2014), corroborating the suggested link with high northern latitudes. Larger runoff into the Greenland lake seems to be associated with lower δ18O, higher δ13C and S/Ca ratios, as well as lower Sr/Ca ratios in Blessberg Cave speleothems. This might be linked to lower local temperature and/or changes in

  12. Mid to Late Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, J.; Noe-Nygaard, Nanna; Wolfe, B. B.

    2010-01-01

    this was interrupted by very wet conditions from 5,300 to 5,150, 4,300 to 4,050 and 3,700 to 3,450 cal year BP. The timing of the latter two moist intervals is consistent with other Scandinavian paleoclimatic records. Dry conditions at Lake Bliden between 3,450 and 2,800 cal year BP is consistent with other...... paleolimnological records from southern Sweden but contrasts with records in central Sweden, possibly suggesting a more northerly trajectory of prevailing westerlies carrying moisture from the North Atlantic at this time. Overall, fluctuating moisture conditions at Lake Bliden appear to be strongly linked...... susceptibility, d13CORG, d13Ccarb and d18Ocarb records suggest that the Medieval Warm Period was dry and the Little Ice Age was wet....

  13. Ice core evidence for secular variability and 200-year dipolar oscillations in atmospheric circulation over East Antarctica during the Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delmonte, B. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE-CNRS), Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Department of Environmental Sciences, University Milano-Bicocca (Italy); Department of Geological Sciences, University of Siena (Italy); Petit, J.R.; Krinner, G. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE-CNRS), Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Maggi, V. [Department of Environmental Sciences, University Milano-Bicocca (Italy); Jouzel, J. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS, Saclay (France); Udisti, R. [Chemistry Department, University of Florence (Italy)

    2005-05-01

    Two Holocene ice core records from East Antarctica (Vostok and EPICA-Dome C) were analysed for dust concentration and size distribution at a temporal resolution of 1 sample per {proportional_to}50 years. A series of volcanic markers randomly distributed over the common part of the ice cores (from 9.8 to 3.5 kyear BP) ensures accurate relative dating ({+-}33 years). Dust-size records from the two sites display oscillations structured in cycles with sub-millennial and secular scale frequencies that are apparently asynchronous. The power spectra of the composite sum ({sigma}) of the two dust-size records display spectral energy mostly for 150- to 500-year periodicities. On the other hand, the 200-year band is common to both records and the 200 year components of the two sites are out-of-phase (100-year lead or lag) over {proportional_to}5.5 kyear, a phenomenon also reflected by a significant (>99% conf. lev.) band in the power spectra of the composite difference ({delta}) of the two size records. During long-range transport, mineral dust originating from the Southern Hemisphere continents is graded to a variable extent depending on the altitude and duration of atmospheric transport. Relatively coarse dust is associated with air mass penetration from the middle-lower troposphere and conversely relatively fine dust with upper troposphere air masses or the influence of subsidence over the Antarctic plateau, a hypothesis already proposed for the changes that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition (Delmonte et al. 2004b). Moreover, we assume that the overall fluctuation of air mass advection over Antarctica depends on the meridional pressure gradient with respect to low latitudes, i.e. the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We therefore suggest a regional variability in atmospheric circulation over East Antarctica. The 150-500 year power spectrum of the composite ({sigma}) parameter represents the long term variability of the AAO, imprinted by secular

  14. Subtropical Climate Variability since the Last Glacial Maximum from Speleothem Precipitation Reconstructions in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polk, J.; van Beynen, P.; DeLong, K. L.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.

    2017-12-01

    Teleconnections between the tropical-subtropical regions of the Americas since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), particularly the Mid- to Late-Holocene, and high-resolution proxy records refining climate variability over this period continue to receive increasing attention. Here, we present a high-resolution, precisely dated speleothem record spanning multiple periods of time since the LGM ( 30 ka) for the Florida peninsula. The data indicate that the amount effect plays a significant role in determining the isotopic signal of the speleothem calcite. Collectively, the records indicate distinct differences in climate in the region between the LGM, Mid-Holocene, and Late Holocene, including a progressive shift in ocean composition and precipitation isotopic values through the period, suggesting Florida's sensitivity to regional and global climatic shifts. Comparisons between speleothem δ18O values and Gulf of Mexico marine records reveal a strong connection between the Gulf region and the terrestrial subtropical climate in the Late Holocene, while the North Atlantic's influence is clear in the earlier portions of the record. Warmer sea surface temperatures correspond to enhanced evaporation, leading to more intense atmospheric convection in Florida, and thereby modulating the isotopic composition of rainfall above the cave. These regional signals in climate extend from the subtropics to the tropics, with a clear covariance between the speleothem signal and other proxy records from around the region, as well as global agreement during the LGM period with other records. These latter connections appear to be driven by changes in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and time series analysis of the δ18O values reveals significant multidecadal periodicities in the record, which are evidenced by agreement with the AMV and other multidecadal influences (NAO and PDO) likely having varying influence throughout the period of record. The climate variability

  15. Late Holocene climate and environmental change from Asiul cave speleothems: interpretations in light of modern cave monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Andrew; Wynn, Peter; Barker, Philip; Leng, Melanie; Noble, Steve; Tych, Wlodek

    2017-04-01

    Northern Iberia offers an excellent location to study fluctuations in North Atlantic Ocean (NA) conditions and the impact that changes in the NA have on atmospheric systems, which dominate Europe's climate. Two speleothems from Cueva de Asiul (Matienzo, N. Spain) have been used to reconstruct rainfall variability in N. Spain throughout the Holocene (Smith et al., 2016a). The carbonate δ18O records from these speleothems are interpreted in the light of a rigorous modern cave monitoring program undertaken at Cueva de Asiul (Smith et al., 2016b). Drip water δ18O reflects a modern rainfall amount effect whilst δ13C appears influenced by Prior Calcite Precipitation (PCP) in the short term and changes in vegetation at long timescales. The speleothem δ18O shows that long duration ( 1500 year) cycles in wetting and drying are prevalent in N. Spain during the Holocene and that dry climate phases are related to the timing of cold events (Bond et al., 2001) in the NA. Here we look in more detail at one of these speleothems, assessing both δ18O and δ13C during the last two thousand years. We show that Cueva de Asiul speleothems not only preserve long duration climate cycles in δ18O, but that they also appear influenced by shorter duration changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in-sync with other NAO archives (Olsen et al., 2012). However, the Cueva de Asiul record does not appear to preserve a predominately positive NAO signal during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) as is common within many European archives (Trouet et al., 2009), possibly due to the sites' close proximity to the NA and localised oceanic weather systems (Moreno et al., 2012). Alongside climatic changes, the speleothem δ13C shows a clear transition toward higher isotope values around 360 years BP (BP=1950), signalling a major environmental change in the region possibly due to anthropogenic removal of vast swathes of natural forest to support ship building and industry related to the Spanish

  16. A first look at the ACER-SST dataset: Mapping the spatio-temporal variability of sea-surface temperatures in the last Glacial and the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehfeld, Kira; Laepple, Thomas; Bassinot, Franck; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Desprat, Stéphanie; Kim, Jung-Hyun; Fernanda Sánchez-Goñi, Maria; Harrison, Sandy

    2016-04-01

    Climate in the last Glacial was characterized by abrupt and large-scale changes around cold Heinrich-Events and warm Dansgaard-Oeschger excursions in the Northern high latitudes. The global repercussions of these periods of rapid dynamics are, to date, unconstrained. Here, we present a first statistical analysis of the global multi-proxy ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) sea surface temperature dataset, spanning the last 80 thousand years, to investigate the spatial footprints of glacial climate dynamics. In a first step we evaluate the spatial and temporal variability throughout the Glacial period, and contrast them with that during the Holocene. In a second step we investigate to which extent a temporal synchroneity of extreme events during the Glacial is detectable in the proxy records, and analyze the reversibility of Glacial dynamics.

  17. Recent evolution and divergence among populations of a rare Mexican endemic, Chihuahua spruce, following holocene climatic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Thomas Ledig; Virginia Jacob-Cervantes; Paul D. Hodgskiss

    1997-01-01

    Fragmentation and reduction in population size are expected to reduce genetic diversity. However, examples from natural populations of forest trees are scarce. The range of Chihuahua spruce retreated northward and fragmented coincident with the warming climate that marked the early Holocene. The isolated populations vary from 15 to 2441 trees, which provided an...

  18. Holocene alluvial stratigraphy and response to climate change in the Roaring River valley, Front Range, Colorado, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madole, Richard F.

    2012-09-01

    Stratigraphic analyses and radiocarbon geochronology of alluvial deposits exposed along the Roaring River, Colorado, lead to three principal conclusions: (1) the opinion that stream channels in the higher parts of the Front Range are relics of the Pleistocene and nonalluvial under the present climate, as argued in a water-rights trial USA v. Colorado, is untenable, (2) beds of clast-supported gravel alternate in vertical succession with beds of fine-grained sediment (sand, mud, and peat) in response to centennial-scale changes in snowmelt-driven peak discharges, and (3) alluvial strata provide information about Holocene climate history that complements the history provided by cirque moraines, periglacial deposits, and paleontological data. Most alluvial strata are of late Holocene age and record, among other things, that: (1) the largest peak flows since the end of the Pleistocene occurred during the late Holocene; (2) the occurrence of a mid- to late Holocene interval (~ 2450-1630(?) cal yr BP) of warmer climate, which is not clearly identified in palynological records; and (3) the Little Ice Age climate seems to have had little impact on stream channels, except perhaps for minor (~ 1 m) incision.

  19. Holocene changes in climate and vegetation in the Ammassalik area, East Greenland, recorded in lake sediments and soil profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Bjarne Holm; Fredskild, Bent; Pedersen, Jørn Bjarke Torp

    2008-01-01

    , appears to have experienced the warmest Holocene summer conditions, ice-free seas and limited snow covers. The climate situation seems to have been to a considerable extent based on internal regional meteorological processes and largely without strong and regular cyclonic impacts from lower latitudes...

  20. Biomization and quantitative climate reconstruction techniques in northwestern Mexico—With an application to four Holocene pollen sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega-Rosas, C. I.; Guiot, J.; Peñalba, M. C.; Ortiz-Acosta, M. E.

    2008-04-01

    6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12, 185-194), we modified the pollen-PFT and PFT-biomes assignation of Thompson and Anderson (Thompson, R.S., Anderson, K.H., 2000. Biomes of western North America at 18,000; 6000 and 0 14C yr BP reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data. Journal of Biogeography 27, 555-584) for a better representation of the modern vegetation of NW Mexico. The biome reconstruction method was validated with the modern pollen sites and applied to the fossil sites. Our results show that, during the early Holocene, a cool conifer forest extended at least down to 1700 m, while today this biome is present above 2000 m in the Chihuahua state. The Younger Dryas event was recorded in one site with cold and dry conditions. The reconstructed annual temperature for this period was 3°-6 °C colder than today, and annual precipitation was 250 mm lower than at present (900 mm/yr). The middle Holocene after 9200 cal yr BP was marked by a warming trend, reaching temperatures 2 °C warmer than today at 7000 cal yr BP, and by the installation of a warm mixed forest, the present day biome, at 1700 m elevation, while at higher elevations (1900 m) the cool conifer forest was still present. Summer precipitation was 200 mm/yr above the early Holocene values, suggesting that monsoon-like conditions strengthened since 9200 cal yr BP at this region. During the last 4000 yr, the same warm mixed forest was reconstructed below 1700 m and a conifer forest above 1700 m. A great variability of vegetation and climate patterns was recorded for the last 3000 yr particularly at high elevation sites, where warming and cooling trends would be coeval of the Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age, likely related to ENSO variability.

  1. Beaver Activity, Holocene Climate and Riparian Landscape Change Across Stream Scales in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, R.; Meyer, G. A.

    2013-12-01

    Beaver (Castor canadensis) have been part of the fluvial and riparian landscape across much of North America since the Pleistocene, increasing channel habitat complexity and expanding riparian landscapes. The fur trade, however, decimated beaver populations by the 1840s, and other human activities have limited beaver in many areas, including parts of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Understanding fluctuations in beaver occupation through the Holocene will aid in understanding the natural range of variability in beaver activity as well as climatic and anthropogenic impacts to fluvial systems. We are developing a detailed chronology of beaver-assisted sedimentation and overall fluvial activity for Odell and Red Rock Creeks (basin areas 83 and 99 km2) in Centennial Valley (CV), Montana, to augment related studies on the long-term effects of beaver on smaller GYE fluvial systems (basin areas 0.1-50 km2). In developing the CV chronology, we use the presence of concentrations of beaver-chewed sticks as a proxy for beaver occupancy. Beaver-stick deposits are found in paleochannel and fluvial terrace exposures. The relative ages of exposures were determined by elevation data from airborne LiDAR and ground surveys. Numerical ages were obtained from 36 14C ages (~30 more are pending) of beaver-stick wood collected during investigation of the stratigraphy. Most beaver-stick deposits are associated with ~ 1 meter of fine-grained sediment, interpreted as overbank deposits, commonly overlying gravelly sand or pebble gravel channel deposits which is consistent with enhanced overbank sedimentation associated with active beaver dams in CV streams. The CV deposits differ from those on smaller GYE streams where beaver-stick deposits are associated with abandoned dams (berms), infilled ponds and laminated sediments. The lack of pond-related deposition associated with CV beaver-stick deposits is consistent with frequent dam breaching (≤ 5 years) in the modern channel of Odell

  2. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  3. An ikaite record of late Holocene climate at the Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Zunli; Rickaby, Rosalind E. M.; Kennedy, Hilary; Kennedy, Paul; Pancost, Richard D.; Shaw, Samuel; Lennie, Alistair; Wellner, Julia; Anderson, John B.

    2012-04-01

    Calcium carbonate can crystallize in a hydrated form as ikaite at low temperatures. The hydration water in ikaite grown in laboratory experiments records the δ18O of ambient water, a feature potentially useful for reconstructing δ18O of local seawater. We report the first downcore δ18O record of natural ikaite hydration waters and crystals collected from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), a region sensitive to climate fluctuations. We are able to establish the zone of ikaite formation within shallow sediments, based on porewater chemical and isotopic data. Having constrained the depth of ikaite formation and δ18O of ikaite crystals and hydration waters, we are able to infer local changes in fjord δ18O versus time during the late Holocene. This ikaite record qualitatively supports that both the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age extended to the Antarctic Peninsula.

  4. Mid-Holocene Climate and Culture Change in the Atacama Desert, Northern Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosjean, Martin; Núñez, Lautaro; Cartajena, Isabel; Messerli, Bruno

    1997-09-01

    Twenty archaeological campsites intercalated between more than 30 debris flows caused by heavy rainfall events between 6200 and 3100 14C yr B.P. have recently been discovered at Quebrada Puripica in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile. This record provides detailed information about extreme, short-lived climatic events during the hyperarid mid-Holocene period. For the first time, we found evidence of continuous human occupation in this area, filling the regional hiatus in the Atacama basin ("Silencio Arqueologico") between 8000 and 4800 14C yr B.P. The transformation of Early Archaic hunters into the complex Late Archaic cultural tradition was an adaptive process. During this time, the site was a local ecological refuge with abundant resources in a generally hostile environment.

  5. Diatom Stratigraphy of FA-1 Core, Qarun Lake, Records of Holocene Environmental and Climatic Change in Faiyum Oasis, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zalat Abdelfattah A.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates changes in the environmental and climatic conditions in the Faiyum Oasis during the Holocene based on diatom analyses of the sediment FA-1 core from the southern seashore of the Qarun Lake. The studied FA-1 core was 26 m long and covered the time span ca. 9.000 cal. yrs BP. Diatom taxa were abundant and moderately to well-preserved throughout the core sediments. Planktonic taxa were most abundant than the benthic and epiphytic forms, which were very rare and sparsely distributed. The most dominant planktonic genera were Aulacoseira and Stephanodiscus followed by frequently distribution of Cyclostephanos and Cyclotella species. The stratigraphic distribution patterns of the recorded diatoms through the Holocene sediments explained five ecological diatom groups. These groups represent distinctive environmental conditions, which were mainly related to climatic changes through the early and middle Holocene, in addition to anthropogenic activity during the late Holocene. Comparison of diatom assemblages in the studied sediment core suggests that considerable changes occurred in water level as well as salinity. There were several high stands of the freshwater lake level during humid, warmer-wet climatic phases marked by dominance of planktonic, oligohalobous and alkaliphilous diatoms alternated with lowering of the lake level and slight increases in salinity and alkalinity during warm arid conditions evident by prevalence of brackish water diatoms.

  6. The diatom flora of Lake Kinneret (Israel) - Paleolimnological evidence for Holocene climate change and human impact in the southeastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vossel, Hannah; Reed, Jane M.; Litt, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is a region of highly complex topography and climatic variability, such that our understanding of the past environmental variability is still limited. Diatoms (single-celled siliceous algae, Bacillariophyceae) are abundant, diverse and sensitive to a wide range of environmental parameters. They are often well preserved in lake sediment records, and have well-recognised potential to generate high-quality paleolimnological data. Diatoms remain one of the least-exploited proxies in Mediterranean palaeoclimate research. Here, we present results of diatom analysis of an 18 m sediment core from Lake Kinneret (Israel) as part of a multi-proxy study of Holocene climate change and human impact in the Levant (http://www.sfb806.uni-koeln.de). Results are compared with other proxy data including pollen, and with output data from regional climate modelling, to strengthen interpretation of environmental change in the southeastern Mediterranean. The results show remarkable shifts in the diatom flora over the last ca. 8,000 years. Preliminary investigations show that 98% of the diatom taxa can be classified as oligohalobous-indifferent and as alkaliphilous, as is typical of freshwater, alkaline lakes of open hydrology in limestone, karst-dominated catchments. Changes in the diatom data over time can be interpreted mainly in terms of productivity shifts, with a clear trend from oligotrophic at the base to hypereutrophic in the modern lake. The eutrophication trend accelerates after ca. 3,000 cal. yrs. BP, indicating the influence of increased human activity in the catchment, identified previously by analysis of the vegetational history (Schiebel, 2013). The analysis of the composition of the diatom flora also provides some evidence for lake-level fluctuations, as a proxy for shifts in moisture availability. Low lake-level stands are characterized by low diatom concentration and increased relative abundance of littoral taxa. High lake-level stands are marked

  7. Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lesleigh; Max Berkelhammer,; Barron, John A.; Steinman, Byron A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Abbott, Mark B.

    2016-01-01

    Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean–atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ18O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ18O and δ2H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ18O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ18O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north–south precipitation-δ18O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean–atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north–south precipitation-δ18O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean–atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ18O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the

  8. Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lesleigh; Berkelhammer, Max; Barron, John A.; Steinman, Byron A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Abbott, Mark B.

    2016-02-01

    Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ18O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ18O and δ2H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ18O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ18O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north-south precipitation-δ18O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north-south precipitation-δ18O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean-atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ18O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the processes that drive

  9. Inferring late-Holocene climate in the Ecuadorian Andes using a chironomid-based temperature inference model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews-Bird, Frazer; Brooks, Stephen J.; Holden, Philip B.; Montoya, Encarni; Gosling, William D.

    2016-06-01

    Presented here is the first chironomid calibration data set for tropical South America. Surface sediments were collected from 59 lakes across Bolivia (15 lakes), Peru (32 lakes), and Ecuador (12 lakes) between 2004 and 2013 over an altitudinal gradient from 150 m above sea level (a.s.l) to 4655 m a.s.l, between 0-17° S and 64-78° W. The study sites cover a mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient of 25 °C. In total, 55 chironomid taxa were identified in the 59 calibration data set lakes. When used as a single explanatory variable, MAT explains 12.9 % of the variance (λ1/λ2 = 1.431). Two inference models were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and Bayesian methods. The best-performing model using conventional statistical methods was a WA (inverse) model (R2jack = 0.890; RMSEPjack = 2.404 °C, RMSEP - root mean squared error of prediction; mean biasjack = -0.017 °C; max biasjack = 4.665 °C). The Bayesian method produced a model with R2jack = 0.909, RMSEPjack = 2.373 °C, mean biasjack = 0.598 °C, and max biasjack = 3.158 °C. Both models were used to infer past temperatures from a ca. 3000-year record from the tropical Andes of Ecuador, Laguna Pindo. Inferred temperatures fluctuated around modern-day conditions but showed significant departures at certain intervals (ca. 1600 cal yr BP; ca. 3000-2500 cal yr BP). Both methods (WA and Bayesian) showed similar patterns of temperature variability; however, the magnitude of fluctuations differed. In general the WA method was more variable and often underestimated Holocene temperatures (by ca. -7 ± 2.5 °C relative to the modern period). The Bayesian method provided temperature anomaly estimates for cool periods that lay within the expected range of the Holocene (ca. -3 ± 3.4 °C). The error associated with both reconstructions is consistent with a constant temperature of 20 °C for the past 3000 years. We would caution, however, against an over-interpretation at this stage. The reconstruction can only

  10. Arctic climate change and decadal variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden, van der Eveline C.

    2016-01-01

    High northern latitudes exhibit enhanced near-surface warming in a climate with increasing greenhouse gases compared to other parts of the globe, indicating an amplified climate response to external forcing. Decadal to multidecadal variability sometimes enhances and at other times reduces the

  11. Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ( Theobroma Cacao ) Yields in Meme Division, South West Region of Cameroon. ... Farm selection was based on age, consistency of sizes and management practices in an attempt to keep the factors affecting cocoa yield constant. Data on cocoa yield, flowering, ...

  12. Late Holocene vegetation, climate, and land-use impacts on carbon dynamics in the Florida Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Miriam C.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Willard, Debra A.

    2014-01-01

    Tropical and subtropical peatlands are considered a significant carbon sink. The Florida Everglades includes 6000-km2 of peat-accumulating wetland; however, detailed carbon dynamics from different environments within the Everglades have not been extensively studied or compared. Here we present carbon accumulation rates from 13 cores and 4 different environments, including sawgrass ridges and sloughs, tree islands, and marl prairies, whose hydroperiods and vegetation communities differ. We find that the lowest rates of C accumulation occur in sloughs in the southern Everglades. The highest rates are found where hydroperiods are generally shorter, including near-tails of tree islands and drier ridges. Long-term average rates of 100 to >200 g C m−2 yr−1 are as high, and in some cases, higher than rates recorded from the tropics and 10–20 times higher than boreal averages. C accumulation rates were impacted by both the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, but the largest impacts to C accumulation rates over the Holocene record have been the anthropogenic changes associated with expansion of agriculture and construction of canals and levees to control movement of surface water. Water management practices in the 20th century have altered the natural hydroperiods and fire regimes of the Everglades. The Florida Everglades as a whole has acted as a significant carbon sink over the mid- to late-Holocene, but reduction of the spatial extent of the original wetland area, as well as the alteration of natural hydrology in the late 19th and 20th centuries, have significantly reduced the carbon sink capacity of this subtropical wetland.

  13. A multiproxy fjord sediment record of Holocene climate change from the subantarctic Auckland Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, I. M.; Moy, C. M.; Wilson, G. S.; Neil, H.; Riesselman, C. R.

    2014-12-01

    The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SHWW) and the associated oceanic fronts have a major influence on atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. Sediment cores recovered from fjords along the eastern margin of the sub-Antarctic Auckland Islands (51°S, 166°E) are ideally located to sensitively record changes in the strength and position of the SHWW throughout the Holocene. A 5.75m core from Hanfield Inlet preserves both marine and terrestrial environmental components, which we use to develop a multiproxy record of past climatic conditions. This core, composed entirely of brown marine mud and silt, was recovered from a depth of 44m. Based on the entrance sill depth of the fjord (10mbsl) and our knowledge of regional sea level rise, we infer that the base of the core will be early Holocene in age, which will be confirmed using radiocarbon age dating. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages (125-500μm fraction) in surface and downcore samples are dominated by three taxa, Nonionellina flemingi, Cassidulina carinata and Quinqueloculina seminula. These species are either shallow infaunal or infaunal. We will use stable carbon (δ¹³C) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O) isotope geochemistry of the benthic foraminifera Nonionellina flemingi, Bolivina cf. earlandi, Trifarina angulosa, Bulimina marginata f. marginata and Cibicides species (all identified from Rose Bengal stained box-core samples) to reconstruct water column fluctuations associated with frontal migration. These results will compliment bulk sediment C and N concentration and isotope reconstructions of terrestrial organic matter delivery to fjord sub-basins over the past 12,000 years.

  14. A proxy late Holocene climatic record deduced from northwest Alaskan beach ridges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mason, O.K.; Jordan, J.W.

    1991-01-01

    A climatically-sensitive, oscillatory pattern of progradation and erosion is revealed in late Holocene accretionary sand ridge and barrier island complexes of Seward Peninsula, northwest Alaska. Archaeological and geological radiocarbon dates constrain the authors chronology for the Cape Espenberg beach ridge plain and the Shishmaref barrier islands, 50 km to the southwest. Cape Espenberg, acts as the depositional sink for the northeastward longshore transport system and contains the oldest sedimentary deposits: based on 3700±90 B.P. (β-23170) old grass from a paleosol capping a low dune facies. The oldest date on the Shishmaref barrier islands is 1550±70 B.P. (β-23183) and implies that the modem barrier is a comparatively recent phenomenon. Late Holocene sedimentation varies between intervals of erosion and rapid progradation. During erosional periods higher dunes are built atop beach ridges: as between 3000-2000 yrs. BP and intermittently from 1000 BP to the present. At other times, rapid progradation predominated, generating wide swales and low beach ridges without dunes. Tentatively, dune formation is correlative with the Neo-glacial and Little Ice Age glacial advances and increased alluviation in north Alaska. Rapid progradation is contemporaneous with warmer intervals of soil and peat formation atop alluvial terraces, dated to ca. 4000-3500 and 2000-1000 yrs. B.P. In the record of the last 1000 years, dune building is correlative with heightened storminess, as reflected in northwest Alaska tree-ring chronologies and weather anomalies such as spring dust storms and winter thunderstorms in East Asian locations

  15. Mapping the Holocene forest formations with the use of key climate indicators – heat and moisture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. K. Farber

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the methodology of mapping the Holocene forest formations on the basis of the DEM and the key indicators of the climate – heat and moisture. The work is carried out by means of GIS. The test site is located within the boundaries of the axial West Sayan district of mountain taiga forests, which ensures homogeneity of natural and climatic conditions. Stages of the method: creation of rasters on groups of absolute heights, exposures and inclinations with their subsequent combination into a single Combine raster; obtaining the regularities of spatial distribution of heat and moisture and their representation in the form of rasters (digital models; and interactive mapping of the Holocene forests with various combinations of heat and moisture. The use of Combine raster makes it possible to refuse to use any other contours as – landscape, geomorphological, forest inventory. To determine parameters of climatic boundaries of forest formations, the types of forests are linked to the heat and moisture indicators. As a result of linking, a graphic image is produced, where forest formations and their productivity are located in a certain order. The mapping technique involves creating a dBASE table with a field containing information about forest formations. The row-wise change in the records of forest formations as they move to other values of heat and moisture is performed interactively. Each next combination of heat and moisture on maps corresponds to a certain distribution of forest formations and site productivity (bonitet classes. (1900 ± 65 years ago the river valleys were treeless, flat meadows occupied meadows, and the slopes were steppes. As the hypsometric level increases, larch stands, spruce-Siberian stone pine with an admixture of larch, Siberian stone pine-larch with an admixture of fir, and the Siberian stone pine formations appear. (2200 ± 100 years ago the tundra prevailed. Larch forests of V–Va classes of

  16. Holocene footprints in Namibia: the influence of substrate on footprint variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Sarita A; Bennett, Matthew R; Liutkus-Pierce, Cynthia; Thackeray, Francis; McClymont, Juliet; Savage, Russell; Crompton, Robin H

    2013-06-01

    We report a Holocene human and animal footprint site from the Namib Sand Sea, south of Walvis Bay, Namibia. Using these data, we explore intratrail footprint variability associated with small variations in substrate properties using a "whole foot" analytical technique developed for the studies in human ichnology. We demonstrate high levels of intratrail variability as a result of variations in grain size, depositional moisture content, and the degree of sediment disturbance, all of which determine the bearing capacity of the substrate. The two principal trails were examined, which had consistent stride and step lengths, and as such variations in print typology were primarily controlled by substrate rather than locomotor mechanics. Footprint typology varies with bearing capacity such that firm substrates show limited impressions associated with areas of peak plantar pressure, whereas softer substrates are associated with deep prints with narrow heels and reduced medial longitudinal arches. Substrates of medium bearing capacity give displacement rims and proximal movement of sediment, which obscures the true form of the medial longitudinal arch. A simple conceptual model is offered which summarizes these conclusions and is presented as a basis for further investigation into the control of substrate on footprint typology. The method, model, and results presented here are essential in the interpretation of any sites of greater paleoanthropological significance, such as recently reported from Ileret (1.5 Ma, Kenya; Bennett et al.: Science 323 (2009) 1197-1201). Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M.; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie; Partin, Judson W.; Poore, Richard Z.; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

    2018-01-01

    Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

  18. Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie N; Partin, Judson W; Poore, Richard Z; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

    2018-01-26

    Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

  19. Western equatorial African forest-savanna mosaics: a legacy of late Holocene climatic change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ngomanda

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Past vegetation and climate changes reconstructed using two pollen records from Lakes Maridor and Nguène, located in the coastal savannas and inland rainforest of Gabon, respectively, provide new insights into the environmental history of western equatorial African rainforests during the last 4500 cal yr BP. These pollen records indicate that the coastal savannas of western equatorial Africa did not exist during the mid-Holocene and instead the region was covered by evergreen rainforests. From ca. 4000 cal yr BP a progressive decline of inland evergreen rainforest, accompanied by the expansion of semi-deciduous rainforest, occurred synchronously with grassland colonisation in the coastal region of Gabon. The contraction of moist evergreen rainforest and the establishment of coastal savannas in Gabon suggest decreasing humidity from ca. 4000 cal yr BP. The marked reduction in evergreen rainforest and subsequent savanna expansion was followed from 2700 cal yr BP by the colonization of secondary forests dominated by the palm, Elaeis guineensis, and the shrub, Alchornea cordifolia (Euphorbiaceae. A return to wetter climatic conditions from about 1400 cal yr BP led to the renewed spread of evergreen rainforest inland, whereas a forest-savanna mosaic still persists in the coastal region. There is no evidence to suggest that the major environmental changes observed were driven by human impact.

  20. A complete Holocene record of trematode-bivalve infection and implications for the response of parasitism to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntley, John Warren; Fürsich, Franz T; Alberti, Matthias; Hethke, Manja; Liu, Chunlian

    2014-12-23

    Increasing global temperature and sea-level rise have led to concern about expansions in the distribution and prevalence of complex-lifecycle parasites (CLPs). Indeed, numerous environmental variables can influence the infectivity and reproductive output of many pathogens. Digenean trematodes are CLPs with intermediate invertebrate and definitive vertebrate hosts. Global warming and sea level rise may affect these hosts to varying degrees, and the effect of increasing temperature on parasite prevalence has proven to be nonlinear and difficult to predict. Projecting the response of parasites to anthropogenic climate change is vital for human health, and a longer term perspective (10(4) y) offered by the subfossil record is necessary to complement the experimental and historical approaches of shorter temporal duration (10(-1) to 10(3) y). We demonstrate, using a high-resolution 9,600-y record of trematode parasite traces in bivalve hosts from the Holocene Pearl River Delta, that prevalence was significantly higher during the earliest stages of sea level rise, significantly lower during the maximum transgression, and statistically indistinguishable in the other stages of sea-level rise and delta progradation. This stratigraphic paleobiological pattern represents the only long-term high-resolution record of pathogen response to global change, is consistent with fossil and recent data from other marine basins, and is instructive regarding the future of disease. We predict an increase in trematode prevalence concurrent with anthropogenic warming and marine transgression, with negative implications for estuarine macrobenthos, marine fisheries, and human health.

  1. Lateglacial and Holocene climate, disturbance and permafrost peatland dynamics on the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Stephanie D.; Yu, Zicheng; Jones, Miriam C.

    2013-01-01

    Northern peatlands have accumulated large carbon (C) stocks, acting as a long-term atmospheric C sink since the last deglaciation. How these C-rich ecosystems will respond to future climate change, however, is still poorly understood. Furthermore, many northern peatlands exist in regions underlain by permafrost, adding to the challenge of projecting C balance under changing climate and permafrost dynamics. In this study, we used a paleoecological approach to examine the effect of past climates and local disturbances on vegetation and C accumulation at a peatland complex on the southern Seward Peninsula, Alaska over the past ∼15 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP). We analyzed two cores about 30 m apart, NL10-1 (from a permafrost peat plateau) and NL10-2 (from an adjacent thermokarst collapse-scar bog), for peat organic matter (OM), C accumulation rates, macrofossil, pollen and grain size analysis.A wet rich fen occurred during the initial stages of peatland development at the thermokarst site (NL10-2). The presence of tree pollen from Picea spp. and Larix laricinia at 13.5–12.1 ka indicates a warm regional climate, corresponding with the well-documented Bølling–Allerød warm period. A cold and dry climate interval at 12.1–11.1 ka is indicated by the disappearance of tree pollen and increase in Poaceae pollen and an increase in woody material, likely representing a local expression of the Younger Dryas (YD) event. Following the YD, the warm Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) is characterized by the presence of Populus pollen, while the presence of Sphagnum spp. and increased C accumulation rates suggest high peatland productivity under a warm climate. Toward the end of the HTM and throughout the mid-Holocene a wet climate-induced several major flooding disturbance events at 10 ka, 8.1 ka, 6 ka, 5.4 ka and 4.7 ka, as evidenced by decreases in OM, and increases in coarse sand abundance and aquatic fossils (algae Chara and water fleas Daphnia). The initial

  2. Patch-reef morphology as a proxy for Holocene sea-level variability, Northern Florida Keys, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, J.C.; Palaseanu-Lovejoy, M.; Wright, C.W.; Nayegandhi, A.

    2008-01-01

    A portion of the northern Florida Keys reef tract was mapped with the NASA Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) and the morphology of patch reefs was related to variations in Holocene sea level. Following creation of a lidar digital elevation model (DEM), geospatial analyses delineated morphologic attributes of 1,034 patch reefs (reef depth, basal area, height, volume, and topographic complexity). Morphometric analysis revealed two morphologically different populations of patch reefs associated with two distinct depth intervals above and below a water depth of 7.7 m. Compared to shallow reefs, the deep reefs were smaller in area and volume and showed no trend in topographic complexity relative to water depth. Shallow reefs were more variable in area and volume and became flatter and less topographically complex with decreasing water depth. The knoll-like morphology of deep reefs was interpreted as consistent with steady and relatively rapidly rising early Holocene sea level that restricted the lateral growth of reefs. The morphology of shallow 'pancake-shaped' reefs at the highest platform elevations was interpreted as consistent with fluctuating sea level during the late Holocene. Although the ultimate cause for the morphometric depth trends remains open to interpretation, these interpretations are compatible with a recent eustatic sea-level curve that hindcasts fluctuating late Holocene sea level. Thus it is suggested that the morphologic differences represent two stages of reef accretion that occurred during different sea-level conditions. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag.

  3. Reconstruction of El Niño - Southern oscillation variability during the Holocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donders, T.H.

    2005-01-01

    The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific constitutes the largest source of global climate variability on interannual timescales. Every 2-7 year the El Niño phenomenon causes altered Pacific circulation, leading to widespread droughts and floods. However, the exact mechanisms

  4. Mid- to Late Holocene climate development in Central Asia as revealed from multi-proxy analyses of sediments from Lake Son Kol (Kyrgyzstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauterbach, Stefan; Dulski, Peter; Gleixner, Gerd; Hettler-Riedel, Sabine; Mingram, Jens; Plessen, Birgit; Prasad, Sushma; Schwalb, Antje; Schwarz, Anja; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman

    2013-04-01

    A mid-Holocene shift from predominantly wet to significantly drier climate conditions, attributed to the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), is documented in numerous palaeoclimate records from the monsoon-influenced parts of Asia, e.g. the Tibetan Plateau and north- and southeastern China. In contrast, Holocene climate development in the arid regions of mid-latitude Central Asia, located north and northwest of the Tibetan Plateau, is less well-constrained but supposed to have been influenced by a complex interaction between the mid-latitude Westerlies and the ASM. Hence, well-dated and highly resolved palaeoclimate records from Central Asia might provide important information about spatio-temporal changes in the regional interplay between Westerlies and ASM and thus aid the understanding of global climate teleconnections. As a part of the project CADY (Central Asian Climate Dynamics), aiming at reconstructing past climatic and hydrological variability in Central Asia, several sediment cores were recovered from alpine Lake Son Kol (41° 48'N, 75° 12'E, 3016 m a. s. l.) in the Central Tian Shan of Kyrgyzstan. A radiocarbon-dated sediment sequence of 154.5 cm length, covering approximately the last 6000 years, was investigated by using a multi-proxy approach, including sedimentological, (bio)geochemical, isotopic and micropalaeontological analyses. Preliminary proxy data indicate hydrologically variable but predominantly wet conditions until ca. 5100 cal. a BP, characterized by the deposition of finely laminated organic-carbonatic sediments. In contrast to monsoonal Asia, where a distinct trend towards drier conditions is observed since the mid-Holocene, the hydrologically variable interval at Lake Son Kol was apparently followed by an only short-term dry episode between ca. 5100 and 4200 cal. a BP. This is characterized by a higher δD of the C29 n-alkanes, probably reflecting increased evapotranspiration. Also pollen, diatom and ostracod data point

  5. Unexpected early extinction of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) in Sweden and climatic impact on its Holocene range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Robert S; Lindqvist, Charlotte; Persson, Arne; Bringsøe, Henrik; Rhodin, Anders G J; Schneeweiss, Norbert; Siroký, Pavel; Bachmann, Lutz; Fritz, Uwe

    2009-03-01

    Using ancient DNA sequences of subfossil European pond turtles (Emys orbicularis) from Britain, Central and North Europe and accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dating for turtle remains from most Swedish sites, we provide evidence for a Holocene range expansion of the pond turtle from the southeastern Balkans into Britain, Central Europe and Scandinavia, according to the 'grasshopper pattern' of Hewitt. Northeastern Europe and adjacent Asia were colonized from another refuge located further east. With increasing annual mean temperatures, pond turtles reached southern Sweden approximately 9800 years ago. Until approximately 5500 years ago, rising temperatures facilitated a further range expansion up to Ostergötland, Sweden (approximately 58 degrees 30'N). However, around 5500 years ago pond turtle records suddenly terminate in Sweden, some 1500 years before the Holocene thermal maximum ended in Scandinavia and distinctly earlier than previously thought. This extinction coincides with a temporary cooling oscillation during the Holocene thermal maximum and is likely related to lower summer temperatures deteriorating reproductive success. Although climatic conditions improved later again, recolonization of Sweden from southern source populations was prevented by the Holocene submergence of the previous land connection via the Danish Straits that occurred approximately 8500 years ago.

  6. Middle-Late Holocene environmental history of Kulunda (Southwestern Siberia): vegetation, climate, humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudaya, N.; Nazarova, L.; Papin, D.; Nourgaliev, D.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental reconstruction of Mid-Late Holocene vegetation and climate was inferred from pollen records of Lake Big Yarovoe (Kulunda steppe, Southwestern Siberia). Reconstruction suggests generally prevalence of steppe during last 4.45 ka. Relatively warm and dry climate, open semi-desert and dry steppes with patchy birch forest spread between 4.45 and 3.80 ka BP. The largest development of conifers forest started in Kulunda after 3.80 ka BP. Constant presence of dark-coniferous trees Abies and especially Picea between 3.80 and 2.7 ka BP indicates the most humid period in the region during studied time. Onset of the Late Holocene is characterised by dominance of steppe with birch and pine forests in lowlands and river valleys. After AD 1860, open steppe and semi-desert vegetation with fragmentary birch forest have been dominated parallel to sharp reduction of conifers in Kulunda. These results are in agreement with general scheme of Holocene environmental history of surrounding areas including Baraba forest-steppe, Kazakh Upland and Altai Mountains. Territory of Kulunda consists many archaeological sites of Bronze, Iron and Middle Ages. Second half of Bronze Age (4.45-3.80 ka BP) was represented by local human cultures or migrants from the North Kazakhstan. The main archaeological culture of Kulunda alike in the whole Ob`-Irtysh interfluve in this period was Elunino culture. The economical activities of Elunino community were connected with animal breeding especially with sheep and goats. The most humid period (~1795-710 BC; 3.8-2.7 ka BP) in Kulunda corresponded to the end of early Bronze Age and to the onset of the Iron Age. In 18 century BC Andronovo culture, associated with the Indo-Iranians and migrants from Central Kazakhstan, spread in the region. Cattle breeding economy was distinctive features of Andronovo people, however, increase of sheep, goats and horses with transition to nomadic life style was characteristic of the late Bronze Age. This trend is in

  7. Climatic variability of east Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camerlengo, A.L.; Saadon, M.N.; Awang, M.; Somchit, H.; Rang, L.Y.

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to learn the variability of atmospheric pressure, relative humidity and insolation in East Malaysia. The main results of our study are: (1) a gentle pressure gradient is observed at the east coast in the boreal winter, (2) smaller atmospheric pressure values are noted during the first inter-monsoon period all across East Malaysia, (3) lesser insolation values are observed in Sarawak and at the east coast during the boreal winter as compared to the boreal summer, and (4) a poleward increase of insolation is registered. (author)

  8. Climate Variability and Sugarcane Yield in Louisiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenland, David

    2005-11-01

    This paper seeks to understand the role that climate variability has on annual yield of sugarcane in Louisiana. Unique features of sugarcane growth in Louisiana and nonclimatic, yield-influencing factors make this goal an interesting and challenging one. Several methods of seeking and establishing the relations between yield and climate variables are employed. First, yield climate relations were investigated at a single research station where crop variety and growing conditions could be held constant and yield relations could be established between a predominant older crop variety and a newer one. Interviews with crop experts and a literature survey were used to identify potential climatic factors that control yield. A statistical analysis was performed using statewide yield data from the American Sugar Cane League from 1963 to 2002 and a climate database. Yield values for later years were adjusted downward to form an adjusted yield dataset. The climate database was principally constructed from daily and monthly values of maximum and minimum temperature and daily and monthly total precipitation for six cooperative weather-reporting stations representative of the area of sugarcane production. The influence of 74 different, though not independent, climate-related variables on sugarcane yield was investigated. The fact that a climate signal exists is demonstrated by comparing mean values of the climate variables corresponding to the upper and lower third of adjusted yield values. Most of these mean-value differences show an intuitively plausible difference between the high- and low-yield years. The difference between means of the climate variables for years corresponding to the upper and lower third of annual yield values for 13 of the variables is statistically significant at or above the 90% level. A correlation matrix was used to identify the variables that had the largest influence on annual yield. Four variables [called here critical climatic variables (CCV

  9. Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene vegetation and climate in southern Italy: the case of Lago Trifoglietti

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Joannin

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A high-resolution pollen record from Lago Trifoglietti in Calabria (southern Italy provides new insights into the paleoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic changes which characterise the Holocene period in the southern Italy. The chronology is based on 11 AMS radiocarbon dates from terrestrial organic material. The Holocene history of the vegetation cover shows the persistence of an important and relatively stable Fagus forest present over that entire period, offering a rare example of a beech woodstand able to withstand climate changes for more than 11 000 yr. Probably in relation with early Holocene dry climate conditions which affected southern Italy, the Trifoglietti pollen record supports a southward delay in thermophyllous forest expansion dated to ca. 13 500 cal BP at Monticchio, ca. 11 000 cal BP at Trifoglietti, and finally ca. 9800 cal BP in Sicily. Regarding the human impact history, the Trifoglietti pollen record shows only poor imprints of agricultural activities and anthopogenic indicators, apart from those indicating pastoralism activities beneath forest cover. The selective exploitation of Abies appears to have been the strongest human impact on the Trifoglietti surroundings. On the basis of (1 a specific ratio between hygrophilous and terrestrial taxa, and (2 the Modern Analogue Technique, the pollen data collected at Lago Trifoglietti led to the establishment of two palaeoclimatic records tracing changes in (1 lake depth and (2 annual precipitation. On a millennial scale, these records give evidence of increasing moisture from ca. 11 000 to ca. 9400 cal BP and maximum humidity from ca. 9400 to ca. 6200 cal BP, prior to a general trend towards the drier climate conditions that have prevailed up to the present. In addition, several successive centennial-scale oscillations appear to have punctuated the entire Holocene. The identification of a cold dry event around 11 300 cal BP, responsible for a marked decline in

  10. Lateglacial and Holocene climatic changes in south-eastern Patagonia inferred from carbonate isotope records of Laguna Potrok Aike (Argentina)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oehlerich, M.; Mayr, C.; Gussone, N.; Hahn, A.; Hölzl, S.; Lücke, A.; Ohlendorf, C.; Rummel, S.; Teichert, B. M. A.; Zolitschka, B.

    2015-04-01

    First results of strontium, calcium, carbon and oxygen isotope analyses of bulk carbonates from a 106 m long sediment record of Laguna Potrok Aike, located in southern Patagonia are presented. Morphological and isotopic investigations of μm-sized carbonate crystals in the sediment reveal an endogenic origin for the entire Holocene. During this time period the calcium carbonate record of Laguna Potrok Aike turned out to be most likely ikaite-derived. As ikaite precipitation in nature has only been observed in a narrow temperature window between 0 and 7 °C, the respective carbonate oxygen isotope ratios serve as a proxy of hydrological variations rather than of palaeotemperatures. We suggest that oxygen isotope ratios are sensitive to changes of the lake water balance induced by intensity variations of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies and discuss the role of this wind belt as a driver for climate change in southern South America. In combination with other proxy records the evolution of westerly wind intensities is reconstructed. Our data suggest that weak SHW prevailed during the Lateglacial and the early Holocene, interrupted by an interval with strengthened Westerlies between 13.4 and 11.3 ka cal BP. Wind strength increased at 9.2 ka cal BP and significantly intensified until 7.0 ka cal BP. Subsequently, the wind intensity diminished and stabilised to conditions similar to present day after a period of reduced evaporation during the "Little Ice Age". Strontium isotopes (87Sr/86Sr ratio) were identified as a potential lake-level indicator and point to a lowering from overflow conditions during the Glacial (∼17 ka cal BP) to lowest lake levels around 8 ka cal BP. Thereafter the strontium isotope curve resembles the lake-level curve which is stepwise rising until the "Little Ice Age". The variability of the Ca isotope composition of the sediment reflects changes in the Ca budget of the lake, indicating higher degrees of Ca utilisation during the period with

  11. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-12-01

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  12. Harvesting Atlantic Cod under Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oremus, K. L.

    2016-12-01

    Previous literature links the growth of a fishery to climate variability. This study uses an age-structured bioeconomic model to compare optimal harvest in the Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod fishery under a variable climate versus a static climate. The optimal harvest path depends on the relationship between fishery growth and the interest rate, with higher interest rates dictating greater harvests now at the cost of long-term stock sustainability. Given the time horizon of a single generation of fishermen under assumptions of a static climate, the model finds that the economically optimal management strategy is to harvest the entire stock in the short term and allow the fishery to collapse. However, if the biological growth of the fishery is assumed to vary with climate conditions, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, there will always be pulses of high growth in the stock. During some of these high-growth years, the growth of the stock and its economic yield can exceed the growth rate of the economy even under high interest rates. This implies that it is not economically optimal to exhaust the New England cod fishery if NAO is included in the biological growth function. This finding may have theoretical implications for the management of other renewable yet exhaustible resources whose growth rates are subject to climate variability.

  13. US Climate Variability and Predictability Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patterson, Mike [University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2017-11-14

    The US CLIVAR Project Office administers the US CLIVAR Program with its mission to advance understanding and prediction of climate variability and change across timescales with an emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system. The Project Office promotes and facilitates scientific collaboration within the US and international climate and Earth science communities, addressing priority topics from subseasonal to centennial climate variability and change; the global energy imbalance; the ocean’s role in climate, water, and carbon cycles; climate and weather extremes; and polar climate changes. This project provides essential one-year support of the Project Office, enabling the participation of US scientists in the meetings of the US CLIVAR bodies that guide scientific planning and implementation, including the scientific steering committee that establishes program goals and evaluates progress of activities to address them, the science team of funded investigators studying the ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic, and two working groups tackling the priority research topics of Arctic change influence on midlatitude climate and weather extremes and the decadal-scale widening of the tropical belt.

  14. Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark de Bruyn

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ. This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.

  15. Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruyn, Mark; Hall, Brenda L; Chauke, Lucas F; Baroni, Carlo; Koch, Paul L; Hoelzel, A Rus

    2009-07-01

    Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ). This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.

  16. A Pseudoproxy-Ensemble Study of Late-Holocene Climate Field Reconstructions Using CCA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amrhein, D. E.; Smerdon, J. E.

    2009-12-01

    Recent evaluations of late-Holocene multi-proxy reconstruction methods have used pseudoproxy experiments derived from millennial General Circulation Model (GCM) integrations. These experiments assess the performance of a reconstruction technique by comparing pseudoproxy reconstructions, which use restricted subsets of model data, against complete GCM data fields. Most previous studies have tested methodologies using different pseudoproxy noise levels, but only with single realizations for each noise classification. A more robust evaluation of performance is to create an ensemble of pseudoproxy networks with distinct sets of noise realizations and a corresponding reconstruction ensemble that can be evaluated for consistency and sensitivity to random error. This work investigates canonical correlation analysis (CCA) as a late-Holocene climate field reconstruction (CFR) technique using ensembles of pseudoproxy experiments derived from the NCAR CSM 1.4 millennial integration. Three 200-member reconstruction ensembles are computed using pseudoproxies with signal-to-noise ratios (by standard deviation) of 1, 0.5, and 0.25 and locations that approximate the spatial distribution of real-world multiproxy networks. An important component of these ensemble calculations is the independent optimization of the three CCA truncation parameters for each ensemble member. This task is accomplished using an inexpensive discrete optimization algorithm that minimizes both RMS error in the calibration interval and the number of free parameters in the reconstruction model to avoid artificial skill. Within this framework, CCA is investigated for its sensitivity to the level of noise in the pseudoproxy network and the spatial distribution of the network. Warm biases, variance losses, and validation-interval error increase with noise level and vary spatially within the reconstructed fields. Reconstruction skill, measured as grid-point correlations during the validation interval, is lowest in

  17. Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the Maasai of ... and vulnerability to climate variability and climate change is assessed, using data ... Model results suggest that the ecosystem is quite resilient and suggests that ...

  18. Late Holocene climate and chemical change at high latitudes: case studies from contaminated sites in subarctic and arctic Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galloway, Jennifer M.; Cooney, Darryl; Crann, Carley; Falck, Hendrik; Howell, Dana; Jamieson, Heather; Macumber, Andrew; Nasser, Nawaf; Palmer, Michael; Patterson, R. Timothy; Parsons, Michael; Roe, Helen M.; Sanei, Hamed; Spence, Christopher; Stavinga, Drew; Swindles, Graeme T.

    2015-04-01

    preserved in the lake sediment cores are informed by our characterization of sediments from over 50 lakes in the region. In the longer record obtained from the Giant Mine area we show that the concentration of aqua regia leached As increases prior to resource development and that concentrations are variable over millennia. Lowest concentrations of As in the ~3500 cal yr BP record are coincident with regional Neoglacial cooling. As concentrations begin to increase from concentrations near 100 ppm to over 1000 ppm in the lastest Holocene, coincident with a period of regional warming associated with the Medieval Warm period, although at this point we cannot rule out post-depositional remobilization of As from higher in the sediment column. Concentrations in excess of 10,000 ppm at the top of the sediment core are likely associated with anthropogenic release of this contaminant. At the more northern Courageous Lake site, the sediment record extends back about a hundred years, and reveals that concentrations of As in lake sediments prior to development of the area were about 40 ppm. Increases in As are associated with drilling and mine production but continued increases after 1999 may be due to remobilization of As due to on-going climate warming, recent remediation efforts, or vertical movement of this element in the sediment column.

  19. Holocene Millennial-scale Surface and Bottom Water Variability, Feni Drift, NE Atlantic Ocean: Foraminiferal Assemblages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassen, S. J.; Richter, T. O.; de Stigter, H. C.; van Weering, T. C. E.; de Haas, H.

    A high-resolution sediment core from Feni Drift (ENAM9606, 56N 14W, 2543 m wa- ter depth) was investigated for planktonic and benthic foraminiferal assemblages dur- ing the last 12,000 years. During the Preboreal, peak abundances of T.quinqueloba indicate the passage of the Arctic front over the core site. Holocene planktonic foraminiferal assemblages indicate a gradual warming trend of surface water masses punctuated by a major cooling (8,200ky event s.l.), and possibly a slight cooling dur- ing the last 3,000 years. The interval from 10 to 5kyrs shows higher and fluctuating abundances of T.quinqueloba and G.bulloides, which suggest proximity of the subarc- tic front and enhanced spring blooms compared to the upper Holocene. Abundance peaks of N.pachyderma(s) and/or T.quinqueloba indicate a series of millennial-scale cooling events during the entire Holocene, which can be correlated to similar episodes previously described from other locations in the North Atlantic and Norwegian- Greenland Sea. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages indicate a gradual transition from seasonal, spring-bloom related food supply in the Lower Holocene (dominance of the phytodetritus species E.exigua) to possibly lower, but more sustained food supply in the Upper Holocene (dominance of C.obtusa and C.laevigata).

  20. The greening of the McGill Paleoclimate Model. Part II: Simulation of Holocene millennial-scale natural climate changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yi; Mysak, Lawrence A.; Wang, Zhaomin [McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre (GEC3), Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Brovkin, Victor [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 601203, Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-04-01

    Various proxy data reveal that in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the middle Holocene (6 kyr BP) was warmer than the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) as well as the later Holocene, up to the end of the pre-industrial period (1800 AD). This pattern of warming and then cooling in the NH represents the response of the climate system to changes in orbital forcing, vegetation cover and the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the Holocene. In an attempt to better understand these changes in the climate system, the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) has been coupled to the dynamic global vegetation model known as VECODE (see Part I of this two-part paper), and a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed with the ''green'' MPM. The model results illustrate the following: (1) the orbital forcing together with the vegetation - albedo feedback result in the gradual cooling of global SAT from about 6 kyr BP to the end of the pre-industrial period; (2) the disappearance of the LIS over the period 8-6 kyr BP, associated with vegetation - albedo feedback, allows the global SAT to increase and reach its maximum at around 6 kyr BP; (3) the northern limit of the boreal forest moves northward during the period 8-6.4 kyr BP due to the LIS retreat; (4) during the period 6.4-0 kyr BP, the northern limit of the boreal forest moves southward about 120 km in response to the decreasing summer insolation in the NH; and (5) the desertification of northern Africa during the period 8-2.6 kyr BP is mainly explained by the decreasing summer monsoon precipitation. (orig.)

  1. Different regional climatic drivers of Holocene large wildfires in boreal forests of northeastern America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remy, Cécile C.; Hély, Christelle; Blarquez, Olivier; Magnan, Gabriel; Bergeron, Yves; Lavoie, Martin; Ali, Adam A.

    2017-03-01

    Global warming could increase climatic instability and large wildfire activity in circumboreal regions, potentially impairing both ecosystem functioning and human health. However, links between large wildfire events and climatic and/or meteorological conditions are still poorly understood, partly because few studies have covered a wide range of past climate-fire interactions. We compared palaeofire and simulated climatic data over the last 7000 years to assess causes of large wildfire events in three coniferous boreal forest regions in north-eastern Canada. These regions span an east-west cline, from a hilly region influenced by the Atlantic Ocean currently dominated by Picea mariana and Abies balsamea to a flatter continental region dominated by Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana. The largest wildfires occurred across the entire study zone between 3000 and 1000 cal. BP. In western and central continental regions these events were triggered by increases in both the fire-season length and summer/spring temperatures, while in the eastern region close to the ocean they were likely responses to hydrological (precipitation/evapotranspiration) variability. The impact of climatic drivers on fire size varied spatially across the study zone, confirming that regional climate dynamics could modulate effects of global climate change on wildfire regimes.

  2. Simulating the natural variability of the freshwater budget of the Arctic ocean from the mid to late Holocene using LOVECLIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, F. J.; Goosse, H.; Renssen, H.

    2012-04-01

    The influence of freshwater on the long term climatic variability of the Arctic region is currently of significant interest. Alterations to the natural variability of the oceanic, terrestrial and atmospheric sources of freshwater to the Arctic ocean, caused by anthropogenic induced warming, are likely to have far reaching effects on oceanic processes and climate. A number of these changes are already observable, such as an intensification of the hydrological cycle, a 7% increase in Eurasian river runoff (1936-1999), a 9% reduction of sea-ice extent per decade (1979-2006), a 120km northward migration of permafrost in Northern Canada (1968-1994), and air temperatures 6°C warmer, in parts, from 2007 to 2010, when compared to the 1958-1996 average. All of these changes add another layer of complexity to understanding the role of the freshwater budget, and this makes it difficult to say with any certainty how these future changes will impact freshwater fluxes of the Arctic gateways, such as the Bering Strait, Fram Strait, Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Barents Sea inflow. Despite these difficulties, there have been studies that have integrated the available data, from both in situ measurements and modelling studies, and used this as a basis to form a picture of the current freshwater budget, and then project upon these hypotheses for the future (Holland et al., 2007). However, one particular aspect of these future projections that is lacking is the accountability of how much future variance is attributable to both natural variability and anthropogenic influences. Here we present results of a mid to late (6-0ka) Holocene transient simulation, using the earth model of intermediate complexity, LOVECLIM (Goosse et al., 2010). The model is forced with orbital and greenhouse gas forcings appropriate for the time period. The results will highlight the natural variability of the oceanic, terrestrial and atmospheric components of the freshwater budget, over decadal and

  3. Climate Change and Variability in Ghana: Stocktaking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix A. Asante

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a holistic literature review of climate change and variability in Ghana by examining the impact and projections of climate change and variability in various sectors (agricultural, health and energy and its implication on ecology, land use, poverty and welfare. The findings suggest that there is a projected high temperature and low rainfall in the years 2020, 2050 and 2080, and desertification is estimated to be proceeding at a rate of 20,000 hectares per annum. Sea-surface temperatures will increase in Ghana’s waters and this will have drastic effects on fishery. There will be a reduction in the suitability of weather within the current cocoa-growing areas in Ghana by 2050 and an increase evapotranspiration of the cocoa trees. Furthermore, rice and rooted crops (especially cassava production are expected to be low. Hydropower generation is also at risk and there will be an increase in the incidence rate of measles, diarrheal cases, guinea worm infestation, malaria, cholera, cerebro-spinal meningitis and other water related diseases due to the current climate projections and variability. These negative impacts of climate change and variability worsens the plight of the poor, who are mostly women and children.

  4. Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers’ perceptions of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arshad, Muhammad; Kächele, Harald; Krupnik, Timothy J.; Amjath-Babu, T.S.; Aravindakshan, Sreejith; Abbas, Azhar; Mehmood, Yasir; Müller, Klaus

    2017-01-01

    Many studies have examined the impact of climatic variability on agricultural productivity, although an understanding of these effects on farmland values and their relationship to farmers’ decisions to adapt and modify their land-use practices remains nascent in developing nations. We estimated

  5. Late holocene climate derived from vegetation history and plant cellulose stable isotope records from the Great Basin of western North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigand, P.E.; Hemphill, M.L.; Patra, S.M.

    1994-01-01

    Integration of pollen records, and fossil woodrat midden data recovered from multiple strata of fossil woodrat (Neotoma spp.) dens (middens) in both northern and southern Nevada reveal a detailed paleoclimatic proxy record for the Great Basin during the last 45,000 years in growing detail. Clear, late Holocene climate-linked elevational depressions of plant species' distributions have occurred throughout the Great Basin of up to 200 m below today's and by as much as 1000 m below what they were during the middle Holocene. Horizontal plant range extentions during the Holocene reflecting the final northern most adjustments to Holocene climates range up to several hundred kilometers in the Great Basin. Well documented lags evidenced in the late Holocene response of vegetation communities to increased precipitation indicate reduced effectiveness in the ability of plant communities to assimilate excess precipitation. This resulted in significant runoff that was available for recharge. These responses, although indicating both rapid and dramatic fluctuations of climate for the Holocene, fall far short of the scale of such changes during the late Pleistocene. Extension of these results to Pleistocene woodrat den and pollen data evidence spans lasting several hundred to a thousand or more years during which significantly greater amounts of precipitation would have been available for runnoff or recharge

  6. Microbial Community Dynamics from Permafrost Across the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary and Response to Abrupt Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammad, A.; Mahony, M.; Froese, D. G.; Lanoil, B. D.

    2014-12-01

    Earth is currently undergoing rapid warming similar to that observed about 10,000 years ago at the end of the Pleistocene. We know a considerable amount about the adaptations and extinctions of mammals and plants at the Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary, but relatively little about changes at the microbial level. Due to permafrost soils' freezing anoxic conditions, they act as microbial diversity archives allowing us to determine how microbial communities adapted to the abrupt warming at the end of P. Since microbial community composition only helps differentiate viable and extant microorganisms in frozen permafrost, microbial activity in thawing permafrost must be investigated to provide a clear understanding of microbial response to climate change. Current increased temperatures will result in warming and potential thaw of permafrost and release of stored organic carbon, freeing it for microbial utilization; turning permafrost into a carbon source. Studying permafrost viable microbial communities' diversity and activity will provide a better understanding of how these microorganisms respond to soil edaphic variability due to climate change across the P/H boundary, providing insight into the changes that the soil community is currently undergoing in this modern era of rapid climate change. Modern soil, H and P permafrost cores were collected from Lucky Lady II site outside Dawson City, Yukon. 16S rRNA high throughput sequencing of permafrost DNA showed the same trends for total and viable community richness and diversity with both decreasing with permafrost depth and only the richness increasing in mid and early P. The modern, H and P soils had 50.9, 33.9, and 27.3% unique viable species and only 14% of the total number of viable species were shared by all soils. Gas flux measurements of thawed permafrost showed metabolic activity in modern and permafrost soils, aerobic CH­­4 consumption in modern, some H and P soils, and anaerobic CH­­4 production in one H

  7. Climatic-eustatic control of Holocene nearshore parasequence development, southeastern Texas coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Kindinger, Jack G.; Flocks, James G.; Stewart, Laura B.

    1999-01-01

    Sediment cores, seismic profiles, radiocarbon dates, and faunal assemblages were used to interpret the depositional setting and geological evolution of the southeastern Texas coast during the last glacio-eustatic cycle. Discrete lithofacies and biofacies zones in the ebb-dominated Sabine Lake estuary and adjacent chenier plain record alternating periods of rapid marine flooding and gradual shoaling related to linked climatic/eustatic fluctuations. Monospecific zones of the mollusks Rangia cuneata and Crassostrea virginica, respectively, indicate high fresh water outflow followed by invasion of marine water, whereas intervening organic-rich zones record bayhead delta deposition. High-frequency parasequence stacking patterns within the valley fill and across the adjacent interfluve reflect an initial rapid rise in sea level about 9 ka that flooded abandoned alluvial terraces and caused onlap of Holocene marsh in the incised valley. The rapid rise was followed by slowly rising and oscillating sea level that filled the deepest portions of the incised valleys with fluvially dominated estuarine deposits, and then a maximum highstand (+1 m msl) about 5 ka that flooded the former subaerial coastal plain between the incised valleys and constructed the highest beach ridges. Between 3.5 and 1.5 ka, sea level oscillated and gradually fell, causing a forced regression and rapid progradation of both the chenier plain and accretionary barrier islands. The only significant sands in the valley fill are (1) falling-stage and lowstand-fluvial sediments between the basal sequence boundary and transgressive surface unconformity, and (2) highstand beach-ridge sediments of the chenier plain.

  8. Late Glacial and Holocene Climate Change in the subantarctic Auckland Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmer, G.; Moy, C. M.; Vandergoes, M.; Gadd, P.; Riesselman, C. R.; Jacobsen, G. E.; Wilson, G. S.; Visinand, C.

    2017-12-01

    Situated within the core of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, and between the subtropical and subantarctic fronts, the New Zealand subantarctic islands are uniquely positioned to evaluate past ocean and atmospheric change in the middle to high southern latitudes. We collected a series of sediment cores from Auckland Island fjords to produce a high-resolution record of climate change following the Last Glacial Maximum. Physical property and organic geochemical data, Itrax XRF, and visual core descriptions indicate the cores capture several phases of sedimentation. From these studies, we identify four primary sedimentary facies: 1) a deglacial facies exhibiting mm-scale laminae defined by magnetic susceptibility and density contrasts and high counts of elements associated with terrigenous sources; 2) a lacustrine facies defined by very low density, high organic carbon concentrations and low counts of lithophilic elements; 3) a marine transgression facies with moderate density, moderate bioturbation and alternating marine and lacustrine sedimentary components; 4) a marine facies that contains biogenic carbonate. Radiocarbon results indicate deglacial sedimentation was underway in the basin by approximately 19,000 cal yr BP. Lacustrine deposition in ice-free conditions began around 15,600 cal yr BP and continued until marine transgression at approximately 9,500 cal yr BP. During the early Holocene between 11 and 9.5 ka, we observe elevated n-alkane δD values and an overall increase in redox-sensitive elements that signal a combination of warmer atmospheric temperatures and reduced westerly wind strength that drives fjord stratification. Poleward-shifted westerlies south of the Auckland Islands could accommodate these results, but there are few records to corroborate this interpretation. We will discuss these results within the context of developing New Zealand and subantarctic paleoclimate records in order to provide a more comprehensive record of past change.

  9. The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.

  10. How Hot was Africa during the Mid-Holocene? Reexamining Africa's Thermal History via integrated Climate and Proxy System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dee, S.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century. Reconstructions of African temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have made fundamental contributions to our understanding of past, present, and future climate and can help constrain predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). However, many of these reconstructions are based on proxies of lake temperature, so the confounding influences of lacustrine processes may complicate our interpretations of past changes in tropical climate. These proxy-specific uncertainties require robust methodology for data-model comparison. We develop a new proxy system model (PSM) for paleolimnology to facilitate data-model comparison and to fully characterize uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Output from GCMs are used to force the PSM to simulate lake temperature, hydrology, and associated proxy uncertainties. We compare reconstructed East African lake and air temperatures in individual records and in a stack of 9 lake records to those predicted by our PSM forced with Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) simulations, focusing on the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). We additionally employ single-forcing transient climate simulations from TraCE (10 kyr to 4 kyr B.P. and historical), as well as 200-yr time slice simulations from CESM1.0 to run the lake PSM. We test the sensitivity of African climate change during the mid-Holocene to orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice-sheet forcing in single-forcing simulations, and investigate dynamical hypotheses for these changes. Reconstructions of tropical African temperature indicate 1-2ºC warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the present, similar to changes predicted in the coming decades. However, most climate models underestimate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data (Fig. 1, 6kyr B.P.). We investigate this discrepancy using the new lake PSM and climate model simulations, with attention to the (potentially non

  11. Mid- to late Holocene Indian Ocean Monsoon variability recorded in four speleothems from Socotra Island, Yemen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Rampelbergh, Maïté; Fleitmann, Dominik; Verheyden, Sophie; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, Lawrence; De Geest, Peter; De Vleeschouwer, David; Burns, Stephen J.; Matter, Albert; Claeys, Philippe; Keppens, Eddy

    2013-04-01

    Four stalagmites covering the last 7.0 ka were sampled on Socotra, an island in the northern Indian Ocean to investigate the evolution of the northeast Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) since the mid Holocene. On Socotra, rain is delivered at the start of the southwest IOM in May-June and at the start of the northeast IOM from September to December. The Haggeher Mountains act as a barrier forcing precipitation brought by the northeast winds to fall preferentially on the eastern side of the island, where the studied caves are located. δ18O and δ13C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca signals in the stalagmites reflect precipitation amounts brought by the northeast winds. For stalagmite STM6, this amount effect is amplified by kinetic effects during calcite deposition. Combined interpretation of the stalagmites' signals suggest a weakening of the northeast precipitation between 6.0 and 3.8 ka. After 3.8 ka precipitation intensities remain constant with two superimposed drier periods, between 0 and 0.6 ka and from 2.2 to 3.8 ka. No link can be established with Greenland ice cores and with the summer IOM variability. In contrast to the stable northeast rainy season suggested by the records in this study, speleothem records from western Socotra indicate a wettening of the southwest rainy season on Socotra after 4.4 ka. The local wettening of western Socotra could relate to a more southerly path (more over the Indian Ocean) taken by the southwest winds. Stalagmite STM5, sampled at the fringe between both rain areas displays intermediate δ18O values. After 6.2 ka, similar precipitation changes are seen between eastern Socotra and northern Oman indicating that both regions are affected similarly by the monsoon. Different palaeoclimatologic records from the Arabian Peninsula currently located outside the ITCZ migration pathway display an abrupt drying around 6 ka due to their disconnection from the southwest rain influence. Records that are nowadays still receiving rain by the southwest winds

  12. Climate variability from isotope records in precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grassl, H.; Latif, M.; Schotterer, U.; Gourcy, L.

    2002-01-01

    Selected time series from the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) revealed a close relationship to climate variability phenomena like El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) although the precipitation anomaly in the case studies of Manaus (Brazil) and Groningen (The Netherlands) is rather weak. For a sound understanding of this relationship especially in the case of Manaus, the data should include major events like the 1997/98 El Nino, however, the time series are interrupted frequently or important stations are even closed. Improvements are only possible if existing key stations and new ones (placed at 'hot spots' derived from model experiments) are supported continuously. A close link of GNIP to important scientific programmes like CLIVAR, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme seems to be indispensable for a successful continuation. (author)

  13. Electricity consumption and climate, relationship with climatic variable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fonte Hernandez, Aramis; Rivero Jaspe, Zoltan

    2004-01-01

    Perhaps, since in the world people is more concerned about the possibility of climatic impact on the energy consumption, actually it is an attractive theme not only for undeveloped countries, but also for developed. In this work, a study on the electricity consumption of residential sector in the province of Camaguey, Cuba, during the last ten years of X X century, was done. In it, climatic variables like temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, and wind speed, were included. Specifically, in the case of temperature, it was used both in its primitive form, and like a derived variable in the form of degree-day. For this reason, firstly the appropriate value of base temperature for the area under study was determined, obtaining a value of 23.6 Celsius Degrade. After that, using nonlinear regression analysis, statistical models with acceptable predictive capacity, were obtained

  14. Understanding north-western Mediterranean climate variability: a multi-proxy and multi-sequence approach based on wavelet analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azuara, Julien; Lebreton, Vincent; Jalali, Bassem; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sabatier, Pierre; Dezileau, Laurent; Peyron, Odile; Frigola, Jaime; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie

    2017-04-01

    Forcings and physical mechanisms underlying Holocene climate variability still remain poorly understood. Comparison of different paleoclimatic reconstructions using spectral analysis allows to investigate their common periodicities and helps to understand the causes of past climate changes. Wavelet analysis applied on several proxy time series from the Atlantic domain already revealed the first key-issues on the origin of Holocene climate variability. However the differences in duration, resolution and variance between the time-series are important issues for comparing paleoclimatic sequences in the frequency domain. This work compiles 7 paleoclimatic proxy records from 4 time-series from the north-western Mediterranean all ranging from 7000 to 1000 yrs cal BP: -pollen and clay mineral contents from the lagoonal sediment core PB06 recovered in southern France, -Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) derived from alkenones, concentration of terrestrial alkanes and their average chain length (ACL) from core KSGC-31_GolHo-1B recovered in the Gulf of Lion inner-shelf, - δ18O record from speleothems recovered in the Asiul Cave in north-western Spain, -grain size record from the deep basin sediment drift core MD99-2343 north of Minorca island. A comparison of their frequency content is proposed using wavelet analysis and cluster analysis of wavelet power spectra. Common cyclicities are assessed using cross-wavelet analysis. In addition, a new algorithm is used in order to propagate the age model errors within wavelet power spectra. Results are consistents with a non-stationnary Holocene climate variability. The Halstatt cycles (2000-2500 years) depicted in many proxies (ACL, errestrial alkanes and SSTs) demonstrate solar activity influence in the north-western Mediterranean climate. Cluster analysis shows that pollen and ACL proxies, both indicating changes in aridity, are clearly distinct from other proxies and share significant common periodicities around 1000 and 600 years

  15. Holocene aridification of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponton, C.; Giosan, L.; Eglinton, T.I.; Fuller, D.Q.; Johnson, J.E.; Kumar, P.; Collett, T.S.

    2012-01-01

    Spanning a latitudinal range typical for deserts, the Indian peninsula is fertile instead and sustains over a billion people through monsoonal rains. Despite the strong link between climate and society, our knowledge of the long-term monsoon variability is incomplete over the Indian subcontinent. Here we reconstruct the Holocene paleoclimate in the core monsoon zone (CMZ) of the Indian peninsula using a sediment core recovered offshore from the mouth of Godavari River. Carbon isotopes of sedimentary leaf waxes provide an integrated and regionally extensive record of the flora in the CMZ and document a gradual increase in aridity-adapted vegetation from ???4,000 until 1,700 years ago followed by the persistence of aridity-adapted plants after that. The oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber detects unprecedented high salinity events in the Bay of Bengal over the last 3,000 years, and especially after 1,700 years ago, which suggest that the CMZ aridification intensified in the late Holocene through a series of sub-millennial dry episodes. Cultural changes occurred across the Indian subcontinent as the climate became more arid after ???4,000 years. Sedentary agriculture took hold in the drying central and south India, while the urban Harappan civilization collapsed in the already arid Indus basin. The establishment of a more variable hydroclimate over the last ca. 1,700 years may have led to the rapid proliferation of water-conservation technology in south India. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL-FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few ship-tracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

  17. Seasonal and interannual variability of the Mid-Holocene East Asian monsoon in coral δ18O records from the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Donghuai; Gagan, Michael K.; Cheng, Hai; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Dykoski, Carolyn A.; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Su, Ruixia

    2005-08-01

    Understanding the full range of past monsoon variability, with reference to specific monsoon seasons, is essential to test coupled climate models and improve their predictive capabilities. We present a 54-year long, high-resolution skeletal oxygen isotope (δ18O) record extracted from a well-preserved, massive Porites sp. coral at Hainan Island, South China Sea, to investigate East Asian monsoon variability during summer and winter ∼4400 calendar yr ago. Analysis of modern coral δ18O confirms that Porites from Hainan Island are well positioned to record winter monsoon forcing of sea surface temperature (SST), as well as the influence of summer monsoon rainfall on sea surface salinity (SSS). The coral record for ∼4400 yr ago shows ∼9% amplification of the annual cycle of δ18O, in good agreement with coupled ocean-atmosphere models showing higher summer rainfall (lower coral δ18O) and cooler winter SSTs (higher coral δ18O) in response to greater Northern Hemisphere insolation seasonality during the Middle Holocene. Mean SSTs in the South China Sea during the Mid-Holocene were within 0.5 °C of modern values, yet the mean δ18O for the fossil coral is ∼0.6‰ higher than that for the modern coral, suggesting that the δ18O of surface seawater was higher by at least ∼0.5‰, relative to modern values. The 18O-enrichment is likely to be driven by greater advection of moisture towards the Asian landmass, enhanced monsoon wind-induced evaporation and vertical mixing, and/or invigorated advection of saltier 18O-enriched Pacific water into the relatively fresh South China Sea. The 18O-enrichment of the northern South China Sea ∼4400 yr ago contributes to mounting evidence for recent freshening of the tropical Western Pacific. Today, winter SST and summer SSS variability in the South China Sea reflect the interannual influence of ENSO and the biennial variability inherent to monsoon precipitation. Spectral analysis of winter SSTs ∼4400 yr ago reveals a

  18. Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendergrass, Angeline G; Knutti, Reto; Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Sanderson, Benjamin M

    2017-12-21

    Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle's response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21 st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3-4% K -1 globally, 4-5% K -1 over land and 2-4% K -1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. We show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.

  19. Transient nature of late Pleistocene climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, Thomas J; Hyde, William T

    2008-11-13

    Climate in the early Pleistocene varied with a period of 41 kyr and was related to variations in Earth's obliquity. About 900 kyr ago, variability increased and oscillated primarily at a period of approximately 100 kyr, suggesting that the link was then with the eccentricity of Earth's orbit. This transition has often been attributed to a nonlinear response to small changes in external boundary conditions. Here we propose that increasing variablility within the past million years may indicate that the climate system was approaching a second climate bifurcation point, after which it would transition again to a new stable state characterized by permanent mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere glaciation. From this perspective the past million years can be viewed as a transient interval in the evolution of Earth's climate. We support our hypothesis using a coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model, which furthermore predicts that the future transition would involve a large expansion of the Eurasian ice sheet. The process responsible for the abrupt change seems to be the albedo discontinuity at the snow-ice edge. The best-fit model run, which explains almost 60% of the variance in global ice volume during the past 400 kyr, predicts a rapid transition in the geologically near future to the proposed glacial state. Should it be attained, this state would be more 'symmetric' than the present climate, with comparable areas of ice/sea-ice cover in each hemisphere, and would represent the culmination of 50 million years of evolution from bipolar nonglacial climates to bipolar glacial climates.

  20. Holocene climate and fjord glaciations in Northeast Greenland: implications for IRD deposition in the North Atlantic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reeh, Niels

    2004-01-01

    been released by intensive sub-glacial melting during the long stay of the ice-islands in coastal waters. The Holocene glacial geological record from Northeast Greenland is compared to the record of ice rafted debris (IRD) from North Atlantic deep-sea sediment cores. The comparison shows that transport...... by icebergs in the form of basal debris is unlikely to be the dominant transport mechanism of IRD to deposition sites in the North Atlantic during the Holocene. The ice rafted debris is more likely to be carried at the surface of sea- (or glacier) ice. This supports the result of previous studies by other...... workers that changes of atmospheric and ocean-surface circulation and temperature are the likely causes of Holocene cycles in IRD concentration in North Atlantic deep-sea sediments....

  1. Late Holocene Vegetation and Climate at the Mid Altitudes of the Western Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    ROY, I.; Ranhotra, P. S.; Shekhar, M.; Bhattacharyya, A.; Agrawal, S.; Kumar, P.; Patil, S. K.; Pal, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    The palynological, stable carbon isotope and magnetic susceptibility studies of a 42 cm deep sedimentary core collected from palaeolacustrine deposit at the Nachiketa area ( 2,400 m amsl) near Uttarkashi of Western Himalaya provides the late Holocene vegetation and climatic scenario of the area. Between 3200 to 1650 cal yrs BP, the high susceptibility (χlf) values along with the good frequency of fern spores might indicate the prevailing moist conditions due to high summer monsoon with good influx of the sediments. However, the low pollen concentration between 3200 to 2680 cal years BP might be due to less ground vegetation cover or poor pollen preservation in the sediments. The well represented fern spores along with the other ground vegetation taxa in the period from 1650 cal yrs BP to 600 cal yrs BP also indicates the continuous prevalence of moist conditions that can be related with the globally known medieval warm period (MWP), supported by the δ13C values around -24‰ during this time and the high χLF values. Moreover, the good representation of Cyperaceae pollen suggests the in-filling of the lake followed by the invasion of ground vegetation viz. Cheno/Ams, Apiaceae, Poaceae etc. The good pollen frequency of broadleaved taxa viz. Quercus and Alnus also supports the moist conditions. Since 600 cal years BP the lowered χLF values signifies reduced input from the surrounding suggesting the filling of the lake. The marked increase in the pollen frequency of Cheno/Ams with low values of fern spores suggest less moist conditions with reduced summer monsoon that can be related to Little Ice Age (LIA) episode. Also the low negative δ13C values (around -21‰) indicates the less ground moisture supporting the C4 taxa. The Quercus and Alnus also reduced in their pollen presence. Whereas the Pinus pollen increased gradually since nearly before 410 cal years BP till recent showing the increased invasion of this taxa to near proximity of the area. The

  2. Holocene tree-line variability in the Kauner Valley, Central Eastern Alps, indicated by dendrochronological analysis of living trees and subfossil logs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nicolussi, Kurt; Kaufmann, Matthias; Patzelt, Gernot; van der Plicht, Johannes; Thurner, Andrea

    2005-01-01

    The altitude of the Alpine tree-line has often been used as proxy for the climatic conditions in the Holocene epoch. The usual approach for establishing a record for this proxy is the analysis of pollen and macro remains. We analysed living trees and subfossil logs from the timberline ecotone in the

  3. Human used upper montane ecosystem in the Horton Plains, central Sri Lanka - a link to Lateglacial and early Holocene climate and environmental changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Premathilake, Rathnasiri

    2012-09-01

    This study utilizes radiocarbon-dated pollen, spores, Sphagnum spp. macrofossils and total organic carbon proxies to examine variability of past climate, environment and human activity in montane rainforest, grassland and wetland of the Horton Plains (HP), central Sri Lanka since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The LGM is largely characterized by grasslands and xerophytic herbs dominated open habitats. Arid-LGM punctuated climatic ameliorations, which took place in short episodes. Humans appear to have reached the HP ecosystem after 18,000 cal yrs BP occasionally. The first Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) induced changes in South West Monsoon (SWM) rains occurred at low latitudes between 16,200 and 15,900 cal yrs BP suggesting an onset of monsoon rains. After this event, monsoon rains weakened for several millennia except the period 13,700-13,000 cal yrs BP, but human activity seems to have continued with biomass burning and clearances by slash and burn. Very large size grass pollen grains, which are morphologically similar to pollen from closer forms of Oryza nivara, were found after 13,800 cal yrs BP. Early Holocene extreme and abrupt climate changes seem to have promoted the forms of O. nivara populations in association with humans. New data from the HP would therefore be most interesting to investigate the dispersal and use of domesticated rice in South Asia.

  4. Late-Holocene vegetation dynamics in response to a changing climate and anthropogenic influences - Insights from stratigraphic records and subfossil trees from southeast Lithuania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edvardsson, Johannes; Stančikaitė, Miglė; Miras, Yannick; Corona, Christophe; Gryguc, Gražyna; Gedminienė, Laura; Mažeika, Jonas; Stoffel, Markus

    2018-04-01

    To increase our understanding of long-term climate dynamics and its effects on different ecosystems, palaeoclimatic and long-term botanical reconstructions need to be improved, in particular in underutilized geographical regions. In this study, vegetation, (hydro)climate, and land-use changes were documented at two southeast Lithuanian peatland complexes - Čepkeliai and Rieznyčia - for the Late-Holocene period. The documentation was based on a combination of pollen, plant macrofossils, peat stratigraphic records, and subfossil trees. Our results cover the last two millennia and reveal the existence of moist conditions in Southern Lithuania between 300 and 500 CE and from 950 to 1850 CE. Conversely, changes towards warmer and/or dryer conditions have been recorded in 100, 600, and 750 CE, and since the 1850s. Significant differences with other Baltic proxies prevent deriving a complete and precise long-term reconstruction of past hydroclimatic variability at the regional scale. Yet, our results provide an important cornerstone for an improved understanding of regional climate change, i.e. in a region for which only (i) few detailed palaeobotanical studies exist and which has, in addition, been considered as (ii) an ecologically sensitive region at the interface between the temperate and boreal bioclimatic zones.

  5. El Niño Variability in the Coastal Desert of Southern Peru during the Mid-Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontugne, Michel; Usselmann, Pierre; Lavallée, Danièle; Julien, Michèle; Hatté, Christine

    1999-09-01

    Fourteen organic-rich sedimentary layers in the deposits at Quebrada de los Burros, in coastal southern Peru (Tacna department), lie between two debris-flow units, interpreted to result from El Niño events, at 8980 cal yr B.P. and after 3380 cal yr B.P., respectively. The accumulation of the fine-grained and low-energy sediments of this deposit during the mid-Holocene is incompatible with the occurrence of El Niño events in this region, as these would produce catastrophic flood deposits. The occurrence of organic-rich sediments and evidence of an enhancement of upwelling strength at this time imply the existence of a permanent water supply resulting from an increased condensation of fog at mid-altitudes. These results suggest a lower intensity and, perhaps, a lower frequency of occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon during the mid-Holocene. It is precisely during this period that the most important human settlements are found at this site, probably indicating the presence of reliable supply of fresh water. The chronologies for wetlands in the central south altiplano are out of phase with those indicating increased soil moisture episodes on the coast, implying a long-term difference in climate between these two regions.

  6. Moderate climate signature in cranial anatomy of late holocene human populations from Southern South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paula Menéndez, Lumila

    2018-02-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the association between cranial variation and climate in order to discuss their role during the diversification of southern South American populations. Therefore, the specific objectives are: (1) to explore the spatial pattern of cranial variation with regard to the climatic diversity of the region, and (2) to evaluate the differential impact that the climatic factors may have had on the shape and size of the diverse cranial structures studied. The variation in shape and size of 361 crania was studied, registering 62 3D landmarks that capture shape and size variation in the face, cranial vault, and base. Mean, minimum, and maximum annual temperature, as well as mean annual precipitation, but also diet and altitude, were matched for each population sample. A PCA, as well as spatial statistical techniques, including kriging, regression, and multimodel inference were employed. The facial skeleton size presents a latitudinal pattern which is partially associated with temperature diversity. Both diet and altitude are the variables that mainly explain the skull shape variation, although mean annual temperature also plays a role. The association between climate factors and cranial variation is low to moderate, mean annual temperature explains almost 40% of the entire skull, facial skeleton and cranial vault shape variation, while annual precipitation and minimum annual temperature only contribute to the morphological variation when considered together with maximum annual temperature. The cranial base is the structure less associated with climate diversity. These results suggest that climate factors may have had a partial impact on the facial and vault shape, and therefore contributed moderately to the diversification of southern South American populations, while diet and altitude might have had a stronger impact. Therefore, cranial variation at the southern cone has been shaped both by random and nonrandom factors. Particularly, the

  7. Cocoa farming households' vulnerability to climate variability in Ekiti ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BRO OKOJIE

    Rural livelihoods in south western Nigeria are at risk to climate variability on the short run and climate change on .... to reduce their vulnerability to climate variability as well as longer-term climate change. Nigeria has lost her leading role in exportation of cocoa. This has been attributed .... sizes and type of farm ownership.

  8. Lake Ecosystem Responses to Holocene Climate Change at the Subarctic Tree-Line in Northern Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reuss, Nina Steenberg; Hammarlund, Dan; Rundgren, Mats

    2010-01-01

    sedimentary pigments, diatoms, chironomids, pollen, biogenic silica (BSi), carbon (C), nitrogen (N) elemental and stable-isotope records, and total lake-water organic carbon (TOC) concentration inferred from near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), suggest that the Holocene development of Lake Seukokjaure...

  9. Climate variability and Great Plains agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenberg, N.J.; Katz, L.A.

    1991-01-01

    The ways in which inhabitants of the Great Plains, including Indians, early settlers, and 20th century farmers, have adapted to climate changes on the Great Plains are explored. The climate of the Great Plains, because of its variability and extremes, can be very stressful to plants, animals and people. It is suggested that agriculture and society on the Great Plains have, during the last century, become less vulnerable to the stresses imposed by climate. Opinions as to the sustainability of agriculture on the Great Plains vary substantially. Lockeretz (1981) suggests that large scale, high cost technologies have stressed farmers by creating surpluses and by requiring large investments. Opie (1989) sees irrigation as a climate substitute, however he stresses that the Ogallala aquifer must inevitably become depleted. Deborah and Frank Popper (1987) believe that farming on the Plains is unsustainable, and destruction of shelterbelts, out-migration of the rural population and environmental problems will lead to total collapse. With global warming, water in the Great Plains is expected to become scarcer, and although improvements in irrigation efficiency may slow depletion of the Ogallala aquifer, ultimately the acreage under irrigation must decrease to levels that can be sustained by natural recharge and reliable surface flows. 23 refs., 2 figs

  10. Atmospheric River Characteristics under Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Done, J.; Ge, M.

    2017-12-01

    How does decadal climate variability change the nature and predictability of atmospheric river events? Decadal swings in atmospheric river frequency, or shifts in the proportion of precipitation falling as rain, could challenge current water resource and flood risk management practice. Physical multi-scale processes operating between Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric rivers over the Western U.S. are explored using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). A 45km global mesh is refined over the Western U.S. to 12km to capture the major terrain effects on precipitation. The performance of the MPAS is first evaluated for a case study atmospheric river event over California. Atmospheric river characteristics are then compared in a pair of idealized simulations, each driven by Pacific SST patterns characteristic of opposite phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Given recent evidence that we have entered a positive phase of the IPO, implications for current reservoir management practice over the next decade will be discussed. This work contributes to the NSF-funded project UDECIDE (Understanding Decision-Climate Interactions on Decadal Scales). UDECIDE brings together practitioners, engineers, statisticians, and climate scientists to understand the role of decadal climate information for water management and decisions.

  11. Simulation of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, Lennart

    1999-01-01

    The climatic changes in the last century were discussed and focus was on the questions: 1) What are the causes of the rapid climate fluctuations and 2) Is the global warming, which is observed during the last century, caused by natural or anthropogenic effects. It is concluded that an understanding of climate based on the interpretation of observational data only is not feasible, unless supported by an adequate theoretical interpretation. The capabilities of climatic models were discussed and the importance of incorporating 1) calculations of the internal variability of the atmosphere when forced from an ocean with prescribed sea surface temperature as well as for a system consisting of an atmosphere and a mixed ocean of limited depth, 2) a fully coupled atmospheric and ocean model and finally, 3) a fully coupled system including transiently changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. A short summation of the results is presented. The pronounced warming during the last century is not reproduced under the assumption of constant forcing and pollution emissions have to be incorporated into the models in order to bring the simulated data in agreement with observations

  12. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  13. Climate variability and Port wine quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouveia, Celia; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Dacamara, Carlos

    2010-05-01

    ), suggesting that this type of analysis may be used in developing a tool that may help anticipating a vintage year, based on already available seasonal climate outlooks. Célia Gouveia and Ricardo M. Trigo. "Influence of climate variability on wheat production in Portugal". GeoENV2006- 6th International Conference on Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, Rhodes, October, 25-27, 2006 Miranda, P.M.A., F. Coelho, A. R. Tomé, M. A Valente., A. Carvalho, C. Pires, H. O. Pires, V. C. Cabrinha and C. Ramalho (2002) "20th Century Portuguese Climate and Climate Scenarios", in Santos, F.D., K Forbes and R. Moita (eds) Climate Change in Portugal: Scenarios, Impacts and Adptation Measures", 27-83. Gradiva

  14. Holocene climate on the Modoc Plateau, northern California, USA: The view from Medicine Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starratt, Scott W.

    2009-01-01

    Medicine Lake is a small (165 ha), relatively shallow (average 7.3 m), intermediate elevation (2,036 m) lake located within the summit caldera of Medicine Lake volcano, Siskiyou County, California, USA. Sediment cores and high-resolution bathymetric and seismic reflection data were collected from the lake during the fall of 1999 and 2000. Sediments were analyzed for diatoms, pollen, density, grain size (sand/mud ratio), total organic carbon (TOC), and micro-scale fabric analysis. Using both 14C (AMS) dating and tephrochronology, the basal sediments were estimated to have been deposited about 11,400 cal year BP, thus yielding an estimated average sedimentation rate of about 20.66 cm/1,000 year. The lowermost part of the core (11,400–10,300 cal year BP) contains the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions. From about 11,000–5,500 cal year BP, Medicine Lake consisted of two small, steep-sided lakes or one lake with two steep-sided basins connected by a shallow shelf. During this time, both the pollen (Abies/Artemisia ratio) and the diatom (Cyclotella/Navicula ratio) evidences indicate that the effective moisture increased, leading to a deeper lake. Over the past 5,500 years, the pollen record shows that effective moisture continued to increase, and the diatom record indicates fluctuations in the lake level. The change in the lake level pattern from one of the increasing depths prior to about 6,000 cal year BP to one of the variable depths may be related to changes in the morphology of the Medicine Lake caldera associated with the movement of magma and the eruption of the Medicine Lake Glass Flow about 5,120 cal year BP. These changes in basin morphology caused Medicine Lake to flood the shallow shelf which surrounds the deeper part of the lake. During this period, the Cyclotella/Navicula ratio and the percent abundance of Isoetes vary, suggesting that the level of the lake fluctuated, resulting in changes in the shelf area

  15. An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Li

    Full Text Available The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to

  16. Late Glacial to Holocene climate change and human impact in the Mediterranean : The last ca. 17ka diatom record of Lake Prespa (Macedonia/Albania/Greece)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cvetkoska, Aleksandra; Levkov, Zlatko; Reed, Jane M.; Wagner, Bernd

    2014-01-01

    Lake Prespa (Macedonia/Albania/Greece) occupies an important location between Mediterranean and central European climate zones. Although previous multi-proxy research on the Late Glacial to Holocene sequence, core Co1215 (320cm; ca. 17cal ka BP to present), has demonstrated its great value as an

  17. Holocene fire dynamics in Fennoscandia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clear, Jennifer; Seppa, Heikki; Kuosmanen, Niina; Molinari, Chiara; Lehsten, Veiko; Allen, Katherine; Bradshaw, Richard

    2015-04-01

    Prescribed burning is advocated in Fennoscandia to promote regeneration and to encourage biodiversity. This method of forest management is based on the perception that fire was much more frequent in the recent past and over a century of active fire suppression has created a boreal forest ecosystem almost free of natural fire. The absence of fire is thought to have contributed to the widespread dominance of Picea abies (Norway spruce) with the successive spruce dominated forest further reducing fire ignition potential. However, humans have altered the natural fire dynamics of Fennoscandia since the early- to mid-Holocene and disentangling the anthropogenic driven fire dynamics from the natural fire dynamics is challenging. Through palaeoecology and sedimentary charcoal deposits we are able to explore the Holocene spatial and temporal variability and changing drivers of fire and vegetation dynamics in Fennoscandia. At the local-scale, two forest hollow environments (history are compared to identify unique and mutual changes in disturbance history. Pollen derived quantitative reconstruction of vegetation at both the local- and regional-scale identifies local-scale disturbance dynamics and large-scale ecosystem response. Spatio-temporal heterogeneity and variability in biomass burning is explored throughout Fennoscandia and Denmark to identify the changing drives of fire dynamics throughout the Holocene. Palaeo-vegetation reconstructions are compared to process-based, climate driven dynamic vegetation model output to test the significance of fire frequency as a driver of vegetation composition and dynamics. Early-Holocene fire regimes in Fennoscandia are driven by natural climate variations and fuel availability. The establishment and spread of Norway spruce is driven by an increase in continentality of climate, but local natural and anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance may have aided this spread. The expansion of spruce led to a step-wise reduction in regional biomass

  18. Variable uplift rate through time: Holocene coral reef and neotectonics of Lutao, eastern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chuan-Chou; Wu, Chung-Che; Dai, Chang-Feng; Gong, Shou-Yeh

    2018-05-01

    Significant discrepancies have existed regarding rate and timing of the uplift of Lutao (Green Island), located at the border of the ongoing collision between the Eurasia continental plate and the Philippine Sea Plate. To document its neotectonic history, two cores were drilled into Holocene coral reefs exposed at the southeastern coast of Lutao. Twelve pristine fossil corals, nine taken from cores and three on the surface, were 230Th dated. The results show that the coral reefs started to develop at 8,736 ± 56 yr BP (before 1950 CE) with uplift rate varying from 3.6 mm/yr during 8.7-6.0 kyr BP to 1.2 mm/yr in the past six thousand years. Our study strongly suggests that the uplift rate can vary significantly on millennial time scale. Caution should be used when extrapolating uplift rate estimates based on Mid-late Holocene corals to early times for tectonic active locations, such as Lutao.

  19. Holocene environmental changes recorded in Dicksonfjorden and Woodfjorden, Svalbard: impacts of global climate changes in a glacial-marine system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joo, Y. J.; Nam, S. I.; Son, Y. J.; Forwick, M.

    2017-12-01

    Fjords in the Svalbard archipelago are characterized by an extreme environmental gradient between 1) the glacial system affected by tidewater glaciers and seasonal sea ice inside the fjords and 2) the warm Atlantic Water intrusion by the West Spitsbergen Current from open ocean. As sediment is largely supplied from the terrestrial source area exposed along the steep slopes of the fjords, the changes in the surface processes affected by glaciers are likely preserved in the sediments in the inner fjords. On the other hand, variations in the influence of the warm Atlantic Water in the marine realm (e.g. marine productivity) can be archived in the sediment deposited in the vicinity of the entrance to the fjords. Since the last deglaciation of the Svalbard-Barents ice sheet ( 13000 yrs BP), the Svalbard fjords have faced dramatic climate changes including the early Holocene Climate Optimum (HCO) and subsequent cooling that eventually led to the current cold and dry climate. We investigate the Holocene environmental changes in both terrestrial and marine realms based on stable isotopic and inorganic geochemical analyses of sediments deposited in Dicksonfjorden and Woodfjorden in the western and northern Spitsbergen, respectively. The two fjords are expected to provide intriguing information regarding how terrestrial and marine realms of the Arctic fjords system responded to regional and global climate changes. Being a branch of the larger Isfjorden, Dicksonfjorden penetrates deeply to the land, whereas Woodfjorden is rather directly connected to the open ocean. Accordingly, the results suggest that the Dicksonfjorden sediment records mainly terrestrial signals with marked fluctuations in sediment composition that coincide with major climate changes (e.g. HCO). On the contrary, the two Woodfjorden cores collected from different parts of the fjord exhibit contrasting results, likely illustrating differing response of terrestrial and marine realms to the climate changes in

  20. Climate control on late Holocene high-energy sedimentation along coasts of the northeastern Atlantic Ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Poirier , Clément; Tessier , Bernadette; Chaumillon , Eric

    2017-01-01

    International audience; Abundant sedimentological and geochronological data gathered on European sandy coasts highlight major phases of increased high-energy sedimentation in the North Atlantic Ocean during the late Holocene. Owing to an inconsistent use of the terminology, it is often difficult to determine whether studies have described storm-built or wave-built deposits. Both deposits can be identified by overall similar coarse-grained sedimentary facies, but may provide contradictory pale...

  1. Online Impact Prioritization of Essential Climate Variables on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Barkstrom, B. B.; Roberts, K. P.

    2007-12-01

    The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s NCDC Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Team has developed an online prototype that is capable of displaying the "big picture" perspective of all Essential Climate Variable (ECV) impacts on society and value to the IPCC. This prototype ECV-Model provides the ability to visualize global ECV information with options to drill down in great detail. It offers a quantifiable prioritization of ECV impacts that potentially may significantly enhance collaboration with respect to dealing effectively with climate change. The ECV-Model prototype assures anonymity and provides an online input mechanism for subject matter experts and decision makers to access, review and submit: (1) ranking of ECV"s, (2) new ECV's and associated impact categories and (3) feedback about ECV"s, satellites, etc. Input and feedback are vetted by experts before changes or additions are implemented online. The SDS prototype also provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of satellites; and general as well as detailed information in conjunction with imagery. NCDC's version 1.0 release will be available to the public and provide an easy "at-a-glance" interface to rapidly identify gaps and overlaps of satellites and associated instruments monitoring climate change ECV's. The SDS version 1.1 will enhance depiction of gaps and overlaps with instruments associated with In-Situ and Satellites related to ECVs. NOAA's SDS model empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in monitoring climate change ECV's and potentially significantly enhance collaboration.

  2. Compilation of information on the climate and evaluation of the hydrochemical and isotopic composition during Late Pleistocene and Holocene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Cecilia

    1998-01-01

    This report summarises and evaluates some of the existing information on the Late Pleistocene and Holocene climates, i.e. the last 130 000 years. An estimation of the conditions at the Aespoe island (southeast Sweden) has also been made during this time span. The knowledge about Late Pleistocene (Eemian Interglacial and Weichselian glacial) is not yet fully understood. There are still a lot of assumptions concerning this period and more information is needed to be able to establish the climatic conditions. This is not the case for the Weichselian deglaciation and the present interglacial, Holocene, for which the environmental conditions are quite certain. It has been concluded, however, that the Eemian climatic development probably was similar to the Holocene but perhaps somewhat warmer and more humid. The Eemian Baltic Sea level was probably also higher than the present Baltic Sea level and there was a connection between it and the White Sea in the northeast. Aespoe was probably situated below sea level during the greater part of Eemian. Not much is known about the last glacial period, the Weichselian glaciation, until the final deglaciation. The ice sheet during Early Weichselian was probably mostly concentrated to the Scandinavian mountain area and in northern Scandinavia. At least two intervals with higher temperatures have been recorded, the Broerup and Odderade interstadials. The Middle Weichselian substage is characterised by fluctuations, melting and re-advances. Aespoe was probably not glaciated until the middle or latter part of Middle Weichselian. The maximum extension of the Weichselian ice sheet occurred in Late Weichselian, around 20 to 18 ka BP, which was succeeded by the final deglaciation. The retreat of the Weichselian ice sheet is described by for example end moraines and glacial varved clay. The Aespoe area was glaciated until 12 500 BP. Huge quantities of glacial meltwater was released into the Baltic basin as the ice receded. Due to different

  3. Compilation of information on the climate and evaluation of the hydrochemical and isotopic composition during Late Pleistocene and Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Cecilia [Intera KB (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    This report summarises and evaluates some of the existing information on the Late Pleistocene and Holocene climates, i.e. the last 130 000 years. An estimation of the conditions at the Aespoe island (southeast Sweden) has also been made during this time span. The knowledge about Late Pleistocene (Eemian Interglacial and Weichselian glacial) is not yet fully understood. There are still a lot of assumptions concerning this period and more information is needed to be able to establish the climatic conditions. This is not the case for the Weichselian deglaciation and the present interglacial, Holocene, for which the environmental conditions are quite certain. It has been concluded, however, that the Eemian climatic development probably was similar to the Holocene but perhaps somewhat warmer and more humid. The Eemian Baltic Sea level was probably also higher than the present Baltic Sea level and there was a connection between it and the White Sea in the northeast. Aespoe was probably situated below sea level during the greater part of Eemian. Not much is known about the last glacial period, the Weichselian glaciation, until the final deglaciation. The ice sheet during Early Weichselian was probably mostly concentrated to the Scandinavian mountain area and in northern Scandinavia. At least two intervals with higher temperatures have been recorded, the Broerup and Odderade interstadials. The Middle Weichselian substage is characterised by fluctuations, melting and re-advances. Aespoe was probably not glaciated until the middle or latter part of Middle Weichselian. The maximum extension of the Weichselian ice sheet occurred in Late Weichselian, around 20 to 18 ka BP, which was succeeded by the final deglaciation. The retreat of the Weichselian ice sheet is described by for example end moraines and glacial varved clay. The Aespoe area was glaciated until 12 500 BP. Huge quantities of glacial meltwater was released into the Baltic basin as the ice receded. Due to different

  4. Climate and lake-level history of the northern Altiplano, Bolivia, as recorded in Holocene sediments of the Rio Desaguadero

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baucom, P.C.; Rigsby, C.A. [East Carolina Univ., Greenville, NC (United States). Dept. of Geology

    1999-05-01

    Strata exposed in terraces and modern cutbanks along the Rio Desaguadero contain a variety of lithofacies that were deposited in four distinct facies associations. These facies associations document a history of aggradation and downcutting that is linked to Holocene climate change on the Altiplano. Braided-stream, meandering-stream, deltaic and shoreline, and lacustrine sediments preserved in multi-level terraces in the northern Rio Desaguadero valley record two high-water intervals: one between 4,500 and 3,900 yr BP and another between 2,000 and 2,200 yr BP. These wet periods were interrupted by three periods of fluvial downcutting, centered at approximately 4,000 yr BP, 3,600 yr BP, and after 2,000 yr BP. Braided-river sediments preserved in a single terrace level in the southern Rio Desaguadero valley record a history of nearly continuous fluvial sedimentation from at least 7,000 yr BP until approximately 3,200 yr BP that was followed by a single episode (post-3,210 yr BP) of down-cutting and lateral migration. The deposition and subsequent fluvial downcutting of the northern strata was controlled by changes in effective moisture that can be correlated to Holocene water-level fluctuations of Lake Titicaca. The deposition and dissection of braided-stream sediments to the south are more likely controlled by a combination of base-level change and sediment input from the Rio Mauri.

  5. Holocene glacial fluctuations in southern South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynhout, S.; Sagredo, E. A.; Kaplan, M. R.; Aravena, J. C.; Martini, M. A.; Strelin, J. A.; Schaefer, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding the timing and magnitude of former glacier fluctuations is critical to decipher long-term climatic trends and to unravel both natural cycles and human impact on the current glacial behavior. Despite more than seven decades of research efforts, a unifying model of Holocene glacial fluctuations in Southern South America remains elusive. Here, we present the state-of-the-art regarding the timing of Holocene glacial fluctuation in southern Patagonia-Tierra del Fuego, with a focus on a new generation of high-resolution radiocarbon and 10Be surface exposure dating chronologies. Recently acquired evidence suggest that after receding from advanced Late Glacial positions, Patagonian glaciers were for the most part close to, or even behind, present ice margins during the Early Holocene. On the other hand, emerging chronologies indicate that in some areas there were extensive expansions (century scale?) that punctuated the warm interval. Subsequently, we have evidence of multiple millennial timescale glacial advances starting in the middle Holocene. Several glacial maxima are defined by moraines and other landforms from 7000 years ago to the 19th century, with a gap sometime between 4,500 and 2,500 years ago. The last set of advances began around 800-600 years ago. Although glacial activity is documented in Patagonia at the same time as the European Little Ice Age, the extent of these glacial events are less prominent than those of the mid-Holocene. The causes that may explain these glacial fluctuations remain elusive. Finally, we discuss ongoing efforts to better define the timing and extent of Holocene glaciations in southern South America, and to establish the basis to test competing hypothesis of regional Holocene climate variability.

  6. Late Holocene forest dynamics in the Gulf of Gaeta (central Mediterranean) in relation to NAO variability and human impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Rita, Federico; Lirer, Fabrizio; Bonomo, Sergio; Cascella, Antonio; Ferraro, Luciana; Florindo, Fabio; Insinga, Donatella Domenica; Lurcock, Pontus Conrad; Margaritelli, Giulia; Petrosino, Paola; Rettori, Roberto; Vallefuoco, Mattia; Magri, Donatella

    2018-01-01

    A new high-resolution pollen record, spanning the last five millennia, is presented from the Gulf of Gaeta (Tyrrhenian Sea, central Italy), with the aim of verifying if any vegetation change occurred in the central Mediterranean region in relation to specific well-known global and/or regional climate events, including the 4.2 ka event, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), and to detect possible vegetation changes related to still under-investigated climate signals, for example the so-called "Bond 2" cold event around 2.8 ka BP. The vegetation dynamics of the Gaeta record shows a recurrent pattern of forest increase and decline punctuating the mid- and late Holocene. When the timing of these patterns is compared with the climate proxy data available from the same core (planktonic foraminifera assemblages and oxygen stable isotope record) and with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index, it clearly appears that the main driver for the forest fluctuations is climate, which may even overshadow the effects of human activity. We have found a clear correspondence between phases with negative NAO index and forest declines. In particular, around 4200 cal BP, a drop in AP (Arboreal Pollen) confirms the clearance recorded in many sites in Italy south of 43°N. Around 2800 cal BP, a vegetation change towards open conditions is found at a time when the NAO index clearly shows negative values. Between 800 and 1000 AD, a remarkable forest decline, coeval with a decrease in the frequencies of both Castanea and Olea, matches a shift in the oxygen isotope record towards positive values, indicating cooler temperatures, and a negative NAO. Between 1400-1850 AD, in the time period chronologically corresponding to the LIA (Little Ice Age), the Gaeta record shows a clear decline of the forest cover, particularly evident after 1550 AD, once again in correspondence with negative NAO index.

  7. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  8. Past Holocene soil erosion modeling as a new way to decipher human-climate-environment interactions on natural geo-ecosystem over long time-scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonneau, Anaëlle; Di Giovanni, Christian; Chapron, Emmanuel

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion is a global phenomenon dealing with both environmental, societal and economic issues. Soil erosion is also one of the key processes when it is a matter of Human-climate-environment interactions [1, 2] since if mechanical erosion of continental surfaces initially results from climatic forcing, it can be largely amplified by anthropogenic activities. Using multi-scalar datasets to model long-term (Holocene) erosion fluxes in contrasted areas, where human pressure is well documented by geoarchaeology, we address how landscape evolution, geomorphological processes, ecosystem response and human impacts have been connected over time. Beyond that, such interdisciplinary and integrative approach allow (1) to locally date, qualify, and in particular quantify, both climate variability (rainfall) and impacts of human activities on soils, and (2) to discuss of potential feedback mechanisms and the legacy of past socio-cultural systems on actual geo-ecosystems. Lacustrine sediment represents one of the more relevant natural archives in order to reconstruct environmental or climatic variability and human activities over the past thousand years. Over the last 50 years, the edges of lakes Paladru (low altitude site, 640 m a.s.l.) and Blanc Huez (high-altitude site, 2250 m a.s.l.), both located in Western French Alps and therefore sensitive to the same climatic influences, have been deeply studied by archaeologists who documented and dated periods of enhanced human pressures (agriculture, mining [3, 4]). In these two case-studies, we were therefore able to confront the specific calendars of local human activities with past landscape evolution (vegetation cover, 5) and soil erosion fluxes reconstituted from specific organic tracers quantified into the lacustrine sediments [3, 6]. Results demonstrated that, over the Holocene, climatic forcing, and more particularly glacial fluctuations, influenced human accessibility to high-altitude sites (lake Blanc Huez) and therefore

  9. Holocene evolution of a montane lake catchment inferred from multiproxy sediment analysis : climatic and anthropic impacts in french prealps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajard, Manon; Sabatier, Pierre; Poulenard, Jérôme; David, Fernand; Arnaud, Fabien; Develle, Anne-Lise; Reyss, Jean-Louis; Fanget, Bernard; Malet, Emmanuel; Crouzet, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Lake La Thuile in the Massif des Bauges (874 m a.s.l. French Alps) provides a 18 meters sedimentary sequence. Due to its mid-altitude position, this lake is one of the first to be formed through the glacial retreat and documents the evolution of its catchment since the Late Glacial Maximum. The first 6 meters of the core cover the last 12 000 years, and allowed to study human/climate/environment interactions in a carbonated environment. This study is the first one to investigate a mid-altitude lake in the French Alps for paleoenvironment reconstruction from lake sediment archive. Its altitudinal position presents the advantage to be very accessible to human activities and allows more developed agriculture than in higher altitude. This study aims to determined how and when is expressed the erosive response of such an environment to human settlement. High resolution multiproxy analysis of the first 6 meters including sedimentological, palynological and geochemical data associated to a well-constrained chronology over the Holocene period allows us to understand the respective impacts of both climate and human on the evolution of Lake La Thuile environment. Five major phases of evolution have been highlighted over this period. From 12 000 to 10 000 yr cal. BP, the vegetation is developing with the onset of hardwood species and the disappearance of Pinus. From 10 000 to 4500 yr cal. BP the warmer climatic conditions of the middle of the Holocene allows the forest to densify and the very low sedimentation rate indicates that the forest stabilizes slopes and prevents from the erosion on the watershed. The climate cooling of the Neoglacial period triggers a first erosive phase with a decreasing of the forest around 3300 cal. BP. Human settlements are suggested at La Thuile from 2500 yr cal. BP by palynological evidence of anthropic taxa. The triggered clearing is accompanied by a second erosive phase related to anthropic activities during the Roman period. Erosion

  10. Climate and vegetation changes during the Lateglacial and early–middle Holocene at Lake Ledro (southern Alps, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Joannin

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081 from Lake Ledro (652 m a.s.l., southern Alps, Italy. Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF measurements recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early–middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitude-dependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir and of the Larix (larch development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP, Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200–7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during

  11. Climate, catchment runoff and limnological drivers of carbon and oxygen isotope composition of diatom frustules from the central andean altiplano during the Lateglacial and Early Holocene

    OpenAIRE

    Hernández, Armand; Bao, Roberto; Giralt, Santiago; Sáez, Alberto; Leng, Melanie J.; Barker, Philips A.; Kendrick, C.P.; Sloane, Hilary J.

    2013-01-01

    Diatom-based carbon and oxygen isotope analyses (δ13Cdiatom and δ18Odiatom) were performed on diatomrich laminated sediments of Lake Chungará (Andean Altiplano, northern Chile) deposited during the Lateglacial and Early Holocene (12,400e8300 cal years BP) to reconstruct climate change and environmental response across this major climate transition. The δ13Cdiatom data show both centennial-tomillennial scale changes related to fluctuations in lake productivity and CO2 concentration in the lake...

  12. Fluvial response to the last Holocene rapid climate change in the Northwestern Mediterranean coastlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degeai, Jean-Philippe; Devillers, Benoît; Blanchemanche, Philippe; Dezileau, Laurent; Oueslati, Hamza; Tillier, Margaux; Bohbot, Hervé

    2017-05-01

    The variability of fluvial activity in the Northwestern Mediterranean coastal lowlands and its relationship with modes of climate change were analysed from the late 9th to the 18th centuries CE. Geochemical analyses were undertaken from a lagoonal sequence and surrounding sediments in order to track the fluvial inputs into the lagoon. An index based on the K/S and Rb/S ratios was used to evidence the main periods of fluvial activity. This index reveals that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was a drier period characterized by a lower fluvial activity, while the Little Ice Age (LIA) was a wetter period with an increase of the river dynamics. Three periods of higher than average fluvial activity were evidenced at the end of the first millennium CE (ca. 900-950 cal yr CE), in the first half of the second millennium CE (ca. 1150-1550 cal yr CE), and during the 1600s-1700s CE (ca. 1650-1800 cal yr CE). The comparison of these fluvial periods with other records of riverine or lacustrine floods in Spain, Italy, and South of France seems to indicate a general increase in fluvial and flood patterns in the Northwestern Mediterranean in response to the climate change from the MCA to the LIA, although some episodes of flooding are not found in all records. Besides, the phases of higher than average fluvial dynamics are in good agreement with the North Atlantic cold events evidenced from records of ice-rafted debris. The evolution of fluvial activity in the Northwestern Mediterranean coastlands during the last millennium could have been driven by atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns.

  13. Impact of climate variability on tropospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grewe, Volker

    2007-01-01

    A simulation with the climate-chemistry model (CCM) E39/C is presented, which covers both the troposphere and stratosphere dynamics and chemistry during the period 1960 to 1999. Although the CCM, by its nature, is not exactly representing observed day-by-day meteorology, there is an overall model's tendency to correctly reproduce the variability pattern due to an inclusion of realistic external forcings, like observed sea surface temperatures (e.g. El Nino), major volcanic eruption, solar cycle, concentrations of greenhouse gases, and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Additionally, climate-chemistry interactions are included, like the impact of ozone, methane, and other species on radiation and dynamics, and the impact of dynamics on emissions (lightning). However, a number of important feedbacks are not yet included (e.g. feedbacks related to biogenic emissions and emissions due to biomass burning). The results show a good representation of the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer, including the ozone hole, which plays an important role for the simulation of natural variability of tropospheric ozone. Anthropogenic NO x emissions are included with a step-wise linear trend for each sector, but no interannual variability is included. The application of a number of diagnostics (e.g. marked ozone tracers) allows the separation of the impact of various processes/emissions on tropospheric ozone and shows that the simulated Northern Hemisphere tropospheric ozone budget is not only dominated by nitrogen oxide emissions and other ozone pre-cursors, but also by changes of the stratospheric ozone budget and its flux into the troposphere, which tends to reduce the simulated positive trend in tropospheric ozone due to emissions from industry and traffic during the late 80s and early 90s. For tropical regions the variability in ozone is dominated by variability in lightning (related to ENSO) and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (related to Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric

  14. Late Holocene Drought Variability in Eastern North America: Evidence From the Peatland Archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, R. K.; Jackson, S. T.

    2006-12-01

    Tree-ring based drought chronologies from semi-arid regions of western North America have revealed substantial variability in water balance during the past 1000 years, including episodes of persistent drought more severe than any observed during historical times. Delimitation of regional and continental-scale footprints of these past drought events, including their spatial patterning in humid regions where moisture-sensitive paleoclimate records are scarce, is critical to understanding their dynamics and potential causes. Ombrotrophic peatlands are scattered throughout humid regions of North America at mid-latitudes and represent an underutilized source of multidecadal-scale information on past moisture variations. We are developing a spatial network of peatland-derived paleoclimate and paleoecological records in eastern North America, in an effort to 1) determine whether large, decadal to multidecadal droughts of the past several thousand years were spatially and temporally coherent, 2) assess whether the magnitude of past drought events was sufficient to force ecological change in terrestrial ecosystems, and 3) assess the underlying mechanisms and dynamics of widespread drought in North America. We have completed water-level reconstructions based on testate-amoeba assemblages from two ombrotrophic peatlands in mid-continental North America, Hole in the Bog (NC Minnesota) and Minden Bog (SE Michgian). We also have developed reconstructions from three Sphagnum-dominated kettle peatlands, South Rhody Peatland (NC Michigan), Hornet Peatland (NW Wisconsin), and Irwin Smith Peatland (NE Michigan). Although these kettle peatlands are not truly ombrotrophic, high-magnitude water-table fluctuations should still be attributable to climate variability, and we use these records to supplement our interpretation of regional climate history. Our results indicate that all high-magnitude fluctuations in water balance were spatially extensive, affecting bog-surface moisture

  15. Detecting Climate Variability in Tropical Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, W.

    2004-05-01

    A number of satellite and merged satellite/in-situ rainfall products have been developed extending as far back as 1979. While the availability of global rainfall data covering over two decades and encompassing two major El Niño events is a valuable resource for a variety of climate studies, significant differences exist between many of these products. Unfortunately, issues such as availability often determine the use of a product for a given application instead of an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the various products. Significant efforts have been made to address the impact of sparse sampling by satellite sensors of variable rainfall processes by merging various satellite and in-situ rainfall products. These combine high spatial and temporal frequency satellite infrared data with higher quality passive microwave observations and rain gauge observations. Combining such an approach with spatial and temporal averaging of the data can reduce the large random errors inherent in satellite rainfall estimates to very small levels. Unfortunately, systematic biases can and do result in artificial climate signals due to the underconstrained nature of the rainfall retrieval problem. Because all satellite retrieval algorithms make assumptions regarding the cloud structure and microphysical properties, systematic changes in these assumed parameters between regions and/or times results in regional and/or temporal biases in the rainfall estimates. These biases tend to be relatively small compared to random errors in the retrieval, however, when random errors are reduced through spatial and temporal averaging for climate applications, they become the dominant source of error. Whether or not such biases impact the results for climate studies is very much dependent on the application. For example, all of the existing satellite rainfall products capture the increased rainfall in the east Pacific associated with El Niño, however, the resulting tropical response to

  16. Comparing farmers' perception of climate change and variability with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Perception of climate change and variability supported by local knowledge has helped to advance understanding of climate change and its impacts on agricultural land-use systems. This study compares farmers' perception of climate change and variability in four communities of the Upper East Region of Ghana. Using a ...

  17. Climate Change or Climate Variability? History, Science and Politics in the Mesoamerican Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Poleo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate variations in Mesoamerica have influenced the development and decay of populations from the earliest human settlements. The present time is no exception; there is no evidence that global warming will impact rainfall in the region, but rather there are important studies showing a response of rainfall to climate variability in the American tropics. Since our tropical region is vulnerable to climate variability, public policies must be congruent to avoid the mistakes of previous generations and achieve, with the help of science, a real progress in the fight against global warming.

  18. Societal Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Handmer, J.W.; Dovers, S.; Downing, T.E.

    1999-01-01

    Institutions in many wealthy industrialised countries are robust and their societies appear to be relatively well insulated against the impacts of climate variability, economic problems elsewhere and so on. However, many countries are not in this position, and there is a growing group of humanity which is not benefiting from the apparent global adaptive trends. Worst case scenarios reinforce the impact of this uneven distribution of adaptive capacity, both between and within countries. Nevertheless, at the broad global scale human societies are strongly adaptive and not threatened by climate change for many decades. At the local level the picture is quite different and the survival of some populations at their present locations is in doubt. In the absence of abatement, the longer term outlook is highly uncertain. Adaptation research needs to begin with an understanding of social and economic vulnerability. It requires a different approach to the traditional IPCC impacts assessment, as human behaviour, institutional capacity and culture are more important than biophysical impacts. This is consistent with the intellectual history of the IPCC which has gradually embraced an increasing range of disciplines. 32 refs

  19. The effects of solar variability on climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffert, M.I.

    1990-01-01

    It has been hypothesized for at least a century that some of the observed variance in global temperature records arises from variations in solar output. Theories of solar-variability effects on climate could not be tested directly prior to satellite measurements because uncertainties in ground-based measurements of solar irradiance were larger than the solar variations themselves. Measurements by the Active Cavity Radiometer (ACRIM) onboard the Solar Max satellite and by the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) instrument onboard Nimbus 6 are now available which indicate solar-constant variations are positively correlated with solar activity over an 11-yr solar cycle, and are of order ± 1.0 W m -2 relative to a mean solar constant of S 0 = 1,367 W m -2 , ΔS/S 0 ∼ ± 0.07%. For a typical climate sensitivity parameter of β = S 0 ∂T/∂S ∼ 100 C, the corresponding variations in radiative equilibrium temperature at the Earth's surface are ΔT e ∼ ± 0.07 C. The realized temperature variations from solar forcing, ΔT, can be significantly smaller because of thermal damping by the ocean. The author considers effects of solar variability on the observed and projected history of the global temperature record in light of this data using an upwelling-diffusion ocean model to assess the effect of ocean thermal inertia on the thermal response. The response to harmonic variations of the 11-yr sunspot cycle is of order ΔT ∼ ± 0.02 C, though the coupling between response and forcing is stronger for long-term variations in the envelope of the solar cycle which more nearly match the thermal response time of the deep ocean

  20. Holocene climate and environmental change in the Palliser Triangle: a geoscientific context for evaluating the impacts of climate change on the southern Canadian prairies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemmen, D. S.; Vance, R. E. [eds.

    1999-07-01

    The Palliser Triangle is the driest portion of the Canadian Prairies, and one of the most climatically sensitive regions in Canada. As proof of that, it has suffered severe droughts in the 1920s, 1930s and the 1980s. General climatic models predict that future global warming will be most pronounced in northern regions and continental interiors, including the Great Plains of North America. Evidence of warming is already present in the regional climate record, suggesting that the Palliser Triangle is likely to become even more arid, and drought frequency may increase. This volume contains 18 papers related to major objectives of a project involving the use of the unique paleoenvironmental records available in the Palliser Triangle to assess the impacts of future climate change. Two major objectives of the project are of particular focus: the reconstruction of the Holocene (post-glacial) climatic and hydrological changes, and the evaluation of the relationship between climate and landscape processes. Each paper is capable of standing on its own as a contribution to a specific geoscience discipline; by bringing them together in one regionally focused volume, the editors intend to highlight the need for interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary approaches to the study of global climate change issues. The first paper provides a broad summary of the major results, followed by nine papers devoted to records of past climate and hydrological change documented in paleolimnological and hydrogeological studies. The remaining eight papers focus on geomorphic processes in the Palliser Triangle, and on explanations of how these processes respond to climate forcing. Since each contribution can stand its own, each paper has its own abstract in English and French and its own bibliography. There is an author index for the volume as whole.

  1. Perception of Climate Variability on Agriculture and Food Security by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Osondu

    This paper focuses on how men and women farmers perceive climatic variability in Idanre ... Poor women and their ... Climate Change, Food Security and Poverty ..... 50. 8.3. Total. 180. 100. Marital status. Single. Married. Divorced. Widowed.

  2. Cocoa farming households' vulnerability to climate variability in Ekiti ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BRO OKOJIE

    and protocols that control climate variability and change. Keywords: ... internal processes within the climate system. (internal ... adverse effects on the agricultural sector of the ... information and technology, social capital, ... Not accounting for.

  3. Late Glacial and Early Holocene Climatic Changes Based on a Multiproxy Lacustrine Sediment Record from Northeast Siberia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kokorowski, H D; Anderson, P M; Sletten, R S; Lozhkin, A V; Brown, T A

    2008-05-20

    Palynological (species assemblage, pollen accumulation rate), geochemical (carbon to nitrogen ratios, organic carbon and biogenic silica content), and sedimentological (particle size, magnetic susceptibility) data combined with improved chronology and greater sampling resolution from a new core from Elikchan 4 Lake provide a stronger basis for defining paleoenvironmental changes than was previously possible. Persistence of herb-dominated tundra, slow expansion of Betula and Alnus shrubs, and low percentages of organic carbon and biogenic silica suggest that the Late-Glacial transition (ca. 16,000-11,000 cal. yr BP) was a period of gradual rather than abrupt vegetation and climatic change. Consistency of all Late-Glacial data indicates no Younger Dryas climatic oscillation. A dramatic peak in pollen accumulation rates (ca. 11,000-9800 cal. yr BP) suggests a possible summer temperature optimum, but finer grain-sizes, low magnetic susceptibility, and greater organic carbon and biogenic silica, while showing significant warming at ca. 11,000 cal. yr BP, offer no evidence of a Holocene thermal maximum. When compared to trends in other paleo-records, the new Elikchan data underscore the apparent spatial complexity of climatic responses in Northeast Siberia to global forcings between ca. 16,000-9000 cal. yr BP.

  4. Effects of interannual climate variability on tropical tree cover

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmgren, M.; Hirota, M.; Nes, van E.H.; Scheffer, M.

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming is substantially intensifying the global water cycle1 and is projected to increase rainfall variability2. Using satellite data, we show that higher climatic variability is associated with reduced tree cover in the wet tropics globally. In contrast, interannual variability in

  5. Mid-late Holocene climate and vegetation in northeastern part of the Altai Mountains recorded in Lake Teletskoye

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudaya, Natalia; Nazarova, Larisa; Novenko, Elena; Babich, Valery; Kalugin, Ivan; Daryin, Andrei

    2015-04-01

    We report the first high-resolution (with intervals ca. 20-50 years) late-Holocene (4200 yr BP) pollen record from Lake Teletskoye, Altai Mountains, obtained from the underwater Ridge of Sofia Lepneva in 2006 (core Tel 2006). The study presents (i) the results of palynological analysis of Tel 2006; (ii) the results of spectral analysis of natural cycles based on the periodical fluctuation of taiga-biome curve; and (iii) quantitative reconstructions of the late-Holocene regional vegetation, woody coverage and climate in northern part of the Altai Mountains in order to define place of Northeast Altai on the map of the late-Holocene Central Asian environmental history. Late Holocene vegetation of the northeastern part of Altai recorded in Tel 2006 core is characterized by spread of dark-coniferous forest with structure similar to modern. Dominant trees, Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and Siberian fir (Abies sibirica), are the most ecological sensitive taxa between Siberian conifers (Shumilova, 1962), that as a whole suggests mild and humid climatic conditions during last 4200 years. However, changes of pollen taxa percentages and results of numerical analysis reveal pronounced fluctuation of climate and vegetation. Relatively cool and dry stage occurred prior to ca. 3500 cal yr BP. Open vegetation was widespread in the region with maximum deforestation and minimal July temperatures between 3800-3500 cal yr BP. Steppe-like communities with Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae and Cyperaceae could grow on the open sites around Lake Teletskoye. Reconstructed woody coverage is very low and varies between 29-35%. After ca. 3500 cal yr BP the area of dark-coniferous mountain taiga has significantly enlarged with maximums of woody coverages and taiga biome scores between ca. 2470-1040 cal yr BP. In the period of ~3500-2500 cal yr BP the averages July temperatures increased more than 1 0C. Climate became warmer and wetter. During last millennium (after 1040 cal yr BP) average July

  6. Glacial-Holocene variability in pelagic denitrification and OMZ intensity along the NW Mexican Margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ontiveros Cuadras, J. F.; Thunell, R.; Ruiz-Fernandez, A. C.; Machain-Castillo, M. L.; Tappa, E.

    2017-12-01

    Denitrification of fixed nitrogen represents a substantial loss of bioavailable nitrogen from the ocean, thus playing a major role in the global nitrogen cycle. Water-column (pelagic) denitrification occurs mostly in the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), which are situated beneath coastal upwelling areas that are characterized by high settling fluxes of organic detritus and high rates of oxygen utilization from remineralization. Our study uses biogenic components (total organic carbon and opal) and δ15N values of sediments from the NW Mexican Margin to reconstruct variations in denitrification and strength of the OMZ in the eastern tropical North Pacific (ETNP) for the last 36,000 years. During the last glacial period (LGM, 23-18 kyr) the associations between relatively low δ15N values (7-8‰) and low TOC (2-4%) and opal (1-4%) content indicates reduced denitrification due to reduced upwelling and decreased flux of organic matter through the OMZ. This was followed by abrupt acceleration of water-column denitrification (δ15N, 7-10‰) and the strengthening of the OMZ during the latter half of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 18-14.7 kyr). However, the biogenic component of sediments deposited during HS1 do not increase appreciably, suggesting that the increase in denitrification was not driven by an increase in productivity. Furthermore, the increase in δ15N precedes the deglacial decrease in planktonic foraminiferal δ18O which mostly occurs during the Bolling Alerod (14.7-12.9 kyr). This suggests that the increase in denitrification was not a response to surface warming. Rather, we attribute the rapid increase in denitrification during HS1 to reduced ventilation of the ETNP OMZ. Following the peak in denitrification at the end of HS1, we observe a small but steady decline in δ15N over the last 15 kyr. Higher TOC in Holocene sediments relative to glacial sediments suggests that increased productivity has played a role in maintaining a strong OMZ throughout the Holocene.

  7. Climate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high latitudes – Part 2: Model-data comparisons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Holmgren

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The climate response over northern high latitudes to the mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated in three types of PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project simulations with different complexity of the modelled climate system. By first undertaking model-data comparison, an objective selection method has been applied to evaluate the capability of the climate models to reproduce the spatial response pattern seen in proxy data. The possible feedback mechanisms behind the climate response have been explored based on the selected model simulations. Subsequent model-model comparisons indicate the importance of including the different physical feedbacks in the climate models. The comparisons between the proxy-based reconstructions and the best fit selected simulations show that over the northern high latitudes, summer temperature change follows closely the insolation change and shows a common feature with strong warming over land and relatively weak warming over ocean at 6 ka compared to 0 ka. Furthermore, the sea-ice-albedo positive feedback enhances this response. The reconstructions of temperature show a stronger response to enhanced insolation in the annual mean temperature than winter and summer temperature. This is verified in the model simulations and the behaviour is attributed to the larger contribution from the large response in autumn. Despite a smaller insolation during winter at 6 ka, a pronounced warming centre is found over Barents Sea in winter in the simulations, which is also supported by the nearby northern Eurasian continental and Fennoscandian reconstructions. This indicates that in the Arctic region, the response of the ocean and the sea ice to the enhanced summer insolation is more important for the winter temperature than the synchronous decrease of the insolation.

  8. Variability in north tropical atlantic over the last 20 000 years and holocene gulf stream activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cleroux, C.

    2007-10-01

    Modern oceanographical studies shown that most of the ocean heat content in the North Atlantic Western Boundary Current region is stored in the upper 400 meters. To study past heat content and Gulf Stream activity, we performed coupled analyses of oxygen isotopic and trace elemental composition on several foraminifera species to reconstruct upper water column temperature and salinity. Calcification depths of Globorotalia inflata, Globorotalia truncatulinoides and Pulleniatina obliquiloculata have been constrain by correlating modern hydrographic data to oxygen isotopic measurement of North Atlantic core-top samples. We found that the three deep-dwelling foraminifera species have a preferred habitat at the base of the seasonal thermocline (Cleroux et al, 2007). The same set of North Atlantic core-tops has been used to define relationships between trace elemental compositions and temperature. We established calibrations between Mg/Ca ratio or Sr/Ca ratio and temperature for the three deep-dwelling foraminifera (Cleroux et al, submitted). We apply this strategy on the core MD99-2203 located off Cape Hatteras where the Gulf Stream separate from the United States coast. High-resolution surface reconstructions over the Holocene show low amplitude periodic temperature and salinity changes that could be related to NAO type mechanisms. Large hydrological changes in sub-surface reflect variations of Labrador current and Mode Water influences. Using recent studies on Mode Water formation and Gulf Stream heat advection, we interpret our results in term of ocean heat content and Gulf Stream activity. (author)

  9. New high-resolution record of Holocene climate change in the Weddell Sea from combined biomarker analysis of the Patriot Hills blue ice area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogwill, Christopher; Turney, Chris; Baker, Andy; Ellis, Bethany; Cooper, Alan; Etheridge, David; Rubino, Mauro; Thornton, David; Fernando, Francisco; Bird, Michale; Munksgaard, Niels

    2017-04-01

    We report preliminary analysis of biomarkers (including dissolved organic matter (DOM) and DNA) from the Patriot Hills blue ice area (BIA), from the Ellsworth Mountains in the Weddell Sea Embayment. Preliminary isotopic and multiple gas analysis (CO2, CH4, N2O and CO) demonstrate that the Holocene comprises more than 50% of the 800m long BIA record, and in combination isotopic and biomarker analysis reveals a remarkable record of centennial variability through the Holocene in this sector of the Weddell Sea. Analysis using a Horiba Aqualog - which measures the fluorescence of DOM by producing a map of the fluorescence through an excitation-emission matrix (EEM) - identifies the presence of two marine protein-like components in both modern snow pit samples and within the Holocene part of Patriot Hills BIA transect. Intriguingly, the modern seasonal trends in DOM, recorded in contemporary snow pits, have relatively low signals compared to those recorded in the mid-Holocene record, suggesting a reduction in DOM signal in contemporary times. Given that the δD excess data suggests the source of precipitation has remained constant through the Holocene, the biomarker signal must relate to multi-year marine productivity signals from the Weddell Sea. The marked variability in DOM between the mid-Holocene and contemporary times can only relate to periods of sustained, enhanced biological productivity in the Weddell Sea associated with shifts in Southern Annular Mode, sea ice variability, changes in ventilation or polynya activity. Here we discuss the possible drivers of these changes and describe how this approach at this BIA could benefit conventional ice core records regionally.

  10. Holocene monsoon variability inferred from Targo Xian peat bog in the Tangra Yumco basin, central Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henkel, Karoline; Haberzettl, Torsten; Miehe, Sabine; Frenzel, Peter; Daut, Gerhard; Dietze, Elisabeth; Kasper, Thomas; Ahlborn, Marieke; Mäusbacher, Roland

    2013-04-01

    The Tibetan Plateau is the greatest plateau on Earth with an average altitude of 4,500 m asl. Due to its high elevation, large area and significant role in the formation of the Asian Monsoon Systems (e.g., Indian Ocean and East-Asian Summer Monsoon) it is considered to react very sensitive to climate variations. The numerous lake systems on the Tibetan Plateau represent excellent archives reflecting variations in the strength of the monsoon system in terms of hydrological changes expressed in lake level fluctuations. For example, terraces and lacustrine deposits around the saline lake Tangra Yumco indicate lake level highstands up to ~215 m higher than the present lake level. To study Holocene lake level variations we investigated a 3.6 m long sediment core recovered from a peat bog (near the Targo Xian settlement, 30°46'N, 86°40'E) on a recessional lake level terrace ~150 m above the present shoreline of Tangra Yumco. In particular, our analyses of sedimentological (grain size), geochemical (CNS and ICP-OES) and mineralogical (XRD) data allow a detailed and high-resolution interpretation of the hydrological conditions during the Holocene. The existence of two carbonate layers in the Targo Xian record, separated by a sand layer and intercalated in peat sequences at the bottom and top of the core, provide evidence for two stable lake stages at the coring position. Peat at the bottom of the core, which is radiocarbon-dated to 11,130 +130/-345 cal BP, indicates wetland conditions similar to the Recent situation (Miehe et al., submitted). After a transition zone, a layer of pure aragonitic lake marl gives evidence for a lake stage. During this stage, high values of the total inorganic carbon (TIC) and Ca/Ti ratios as well as low C/N ratios point to a stable lake due to wet climatic conditions. This carbonate layer can be correlated with a 2-3 m thick carbonate layer found in outcrops around the present lake Tangra Yumco presenting a high lake level until approx. 2

  11. Bottom water production variability in the Ross Sea slope during the Late-Pleistocene-Holocene as revealed by benthic foraminifera and sediment geochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asioli, A.; Langone, L.; Tateo, F.; Giannossi, M. L.; Giglio, F.; Summa, V.; Piva, A.; Ridente, D.; Trincardi, F.

    2009-04-01

    The Antarctic area produces bottom waters that ventilate the vast majority of the deep basins in the rest of the world ocean. The rate of formation in the source area and the strength of these cold bottom waters affect their flow toward the equator and are key factors affecting the Global Thermohaline Circulation during modern and past climate conditions. We present the results of a multidisciplinary study carried out on a core collected in 2377m of water depth on the slope off the Drygalski Basin (Ross Sea), along the modern path of the bottom waters. The goal of this research is to detect a qualitative signal of possible changes in the rate of bottom water production during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene by integrating micropaleontological and geochemical proxies. The micropaleontological signal is represented by the quantitative and qualitative variations of the agglutinated benthic foraminifera assemblages, while the amount of TOC, nitrogen, δ13C, δ15N, biogenic silica, CaCO3 in the sediment, along with the bulk rock mineralogy, provide information on the paleoproductivity and allow reconstruction of changes in the paleocirculation. The chronology is supported by 14C AMS datings on organic matter. Although this study is still in progress, the results obtained allow the following observations: 1) the Holocene sequence includes a major turnover around 8-8.5 calib kyr BP, leading to reduced nutrient utilization, probably reflecting an increased nutrient supply induced by an enhanced Upper Circumpolar Deep Water upwelling; 2) within this general context, the total concentration of benthic foraminifera preserved in the fossil component records millennial scale cycles of variable amplitude after 8.5 calib kyr BP and to present time. This oscillatory trend is paralleled by other parameters, such as the magnetic susceptibility, the dry density, the sheet silicates and the δ15N; 3) minima in foraminifera concentration reflect relatively increased dissolution, weaker

  12. Salinity-induced stratification and the onset of hypoxia during the Holocene Thermal Maximum and the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadomanolaki, Nina; Dijkstra, Nikki; van Helmond, Niels; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Hagens, Mathilde; Kotthoff, Ulrich; Slomp, Caroline

    2016-04-01

    During the past ~8000 years the Baltic Sea has experienced three distinct intervals of hypoxia, of which the last one is still ongoing. These intervals are characterized by enhanced sedimentary organic matter burial and enrichment of redox-sensitive metals, such as molybdenum and iron. The first two of these intervals occurred during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), two phases with high temperatures and changed precipitation patterns. Studies focussing on the Holocene sedimentary record of the Baltic Sea aim at clarifying the causes of the initiation, evolution and termination of these hypoxic intervals, as well as their consequences. This information could help to potentially aid in finding solutions for the mitigation of present-day hypoxia in the Baltic Sea. The factors contributing to hypoxia development during the HTM and MCA are still debated. Here we present data from a core retrieved during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 347 in the Landsort Deep basin, the deepest basin of the Baltic Sea at 463m water depth. Sediments were analysed at a high resolution using inorganic geochemical and (mainly marine) palynological proxies. Dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages and total elemental compositions provide clues on the role of salinity in enhancing stratification, ultimately causing hypoxia. During the onset of the HTM changes in salinity, as indicated by the palynology, closely follow changes in sedimentary organic carbon burial and trace metal concentrations. This suggests that stratification was an important cause of hypoxia during the HTM. In contrast, the palynology suggests that reduced stratification did not contribute to re-oxygenation during the termination of the HTM. We did not observe major changes in the palynology throughout the hypoxic interval of the MCA. Our results thus suggest that changes in salinity did not cause the onset and termination of hypoxia during the MCA.

  13. Holocene environmental and parasequence development of the St. Jones Estuary, Delaware (USA): Foraminiferal proxies of natural climatic and anthropogenic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leorri, E.; Martin, R.; McLaughlin, P.

    2006-01-01

    The benthic foraminiferal record of marshes located along western Delaware Bay (St. Jones Estuary, USA) reflects the response of estuaries to sea-level and paleoclimate change during the Holocene. System tracts are recognized and within them parasequences based on sedimentological and foraminiferal assemblages identification. The parasequences defined by foraminiferal assemblages appear correlative with rapid Holocene climate changes that are of worldwide significance: 6000-5000, 4200-3800, 3500-2500, 1200-1000, and 600??cal years BP. Following postglacial sea-level rise, modern subestuaries and marshes in the region began to develop between 6000 and 4000??years BP, depending on their proximity to the mouth of Delaware Bay and coastal geomorphology. Initial sediments were fluvial in origin, with freshwater marshes established around 4000??years BP. The subsequent sea-level transgression occurred sufficiently slowly that freshwater marshes alternated with salt marshes at the same sites to around 3000??years BP. Locally another two transgressions are identified at 1800 and 1000??years BP respectively. Marine influence increased in the estuaries until 600??years BP (Little Ice Age), when regression occurred. Sea-level began to rise again during the mid-19th Century at the end of the Little Ice Age, when marshes became established. The presence of a sand lens in the upper and middle estuary and the reduction in the number of tests in the top samples in cores from the same area also suggest an anthropogenic influence. The estuary infill resulted in a sharp transgressive sequence, represented by salt marsh foraminiferal assemblages in the upper part of the cores. The increase in marsh foraminifera in both areas suggests an increase in marine influence that might be due to the transgression beginning at the end of the Little Ice Age about 150-180??years ago coupled with anthropogenic straightening of the channel in 1913. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Climatic history - answers on the variability of weather and climate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaser, R.; Hagedorn, H.

    1994-01-01

    The paper is concerned with various aspects of climatic history. Emphasis is on the spectrum of data and methods used in historical climatology. The following section is devoted to an outline of the short- and long-range climatic changes since 1500 A.D. that show how much the climate has varied in space and time. It is pointed out that climatic extremes have been an ever-recurrent phenomenon throughout history. (orig.) [de

  15. European climate variability and human susceptibility over the past 2500 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buentgen, U.

    2010-09-01

    Climate variations including droughts in the western US and African Sahel, landfalls of Atlantic hurricanes, and shifts in the Asian monsoon have affected human societies throughout history mainly by modulating water supply and agricultural productivity, health risk and civil conflict. Yet, discriminations of environmental impacts from political, economical and technological drivers of societal shifts are may be hampered by the indirect effects of climate on society, but certainly by the paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimatic evidence. Here we present a tree-ring network of 7284 precipitation sensitive oak series from lower elevations in France and Germany, and a compilation of 1546 temperature responsive conifers from higher elevations in the Austrian Alps, both covering the past 2500 years. Temporal distribution of historical felling dates of construction timber refers to changes in settlement activity that mirror different stages of economic wealth. Variations in Central European summer precipitation and temperature are contrasted with societal benchmarks. Prolonged periods of generally wet and warm summers, favourable for cultural prosperity, appeared during the Roman epoch between ~200 BC and 200 AD and from ~700-1000 AD, with the latter facilitating the rapid economic, cultural and political growth of medieval Europe. Unprecedented climate variability from ~200-500 AD coincides with the demise of the Western Roman Empire and the subsequent Barbarian Migrations. This period was characterized by continental-scale political turmoil, cultural stagnation and socio-economic instability including settlement abandonment, population migration, and societal collapse. Driest and coldest summers of the Late Holocene concurred in the 6th century, during which regional consolidation began. The recent political, cultural and fiscal reluctance to adapt to and mitigate projected climate change reflects the common belief of societal insusceptibility to environmental

  16. Effects of climatic variability and change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael G. Ryan; James M. Vose

    2012-01-01

    Climate profoundly shapes forests. Forest species composition, productivity, availability of goods and services, disturbance regimes, and location on the landscape are all regulated by climate. Much research attention has focused on the problem of projecting the response of forests to changing climate, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)...

  17. Essential climatic variables estimation with satellite imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolotii, A.; Kussul, N.; Shelestov, A.; Lavreniuk, M. S.

    2016-12-01

    According to Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 - 2030 Leaf Area Index (LAI) is considered as one of essential climatic variables. This variable represents the amount of leaf material in ecosystems and controls the links between biosphere and atmosphere through various processes and enables monitoring and quantitative assessment of vegetation state. LAI has added value for such important global resources monitoring tasks as drought mapping and crop yield forecasting with use of data from different sources [1-2]. Remote sensing data from space can be used to estimate such biophysical parameter at regional and national scale. High temporal satellite imagery is usually required to capture main parameters of crop growth [3]. Sentinel-2 mission launched in 2015 be ESA is a source of high spatial and temporal resolution satellite imagery for mapping biophysical parameters. Products created with use of automated Sen2-Agri system deployed during Sen2-Agri country level demonstration project for Ukraine will be compared with our independent results of biophysical parameters mapping. References Shelestov, A., Kolotii, A., Camacho, F., Skakun, S., Kussul, O., Lavreniuk, M., & Kostetsky, O. (2015, July). Mapping of biophysical parameters based on high resolution EO imagery for JECAM test site in Ukraine. In 2015 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), 1733-1736 Kolotii, A., Kussul, N., Shelestov, A., Skakun, S., Yailymov, B., Basarab, R., ... & Ostapenko, V. (2015). Comparison of biophysical and satellite predictors for wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine. The International Archives of Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, 40(7), 39-44. Kussul, N., Lemoine, G., Gallego, F. J., Skakun, S. V., Lavreniuk, M., & Shelestov, A. Y. Parcel-Based Crop Classification in Ukraine Using Landsat-8 Data and Sentinel-1A Data. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing , 9 (6), 2500-2508.

  18. Reconstruction of past climate variability in SE Spain between 14 and 8 ka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budsky, Alexander; Scholz, Denis; Mertz-Kraus, Regina; Christoph, Spötl; Gibert, Luis; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Andreae, Meinrat O.

    2016-04-01

    In comparison to the large climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene, Holocene climate only underwent minor changes. Nevertheless, cyclic climate changes also occurred during the Holocene. The Bond events, represented by the presence of cold, ice-bearing waters from the north of Iceland as far south as the latitude of Britain, occurred at a cyclicity of about 1500 a and were particularly pronounced during the Early Holocene. However, their climatic impact on the terrestrial realm was not consistent over Europe, in particular with respect to changes in precipitation. Here we present a precisely dated high-resolution flowstone record from Cueva Victoria, SE Spain, a site well suited to study the competing influence of the Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea on the southern Iberian Peninsula. We sampled several flowstones with a thickness of up to 60 cm. 230Th/U-dating has shown that these deposits mainly formed during relatively warm climate intervals of the Middle and Late Pleistocene, i.e. interglacials and interstadials (Budsky et al., 2015; Gibert et al., 2016). Here we focus on a short (11 cm) flowstone sequence from the Holocene with a high temporal resolution (centennial for stable isotopes and annual for trace elements). The flowstone grew between 14 and ca. 8 ka b2k. The decreasing trend of the δ18O and δ13C values as well as of several trace elements between 12 and 11 ka b2k reflects an increase in temperature and precipitation at the beginning of the Holocene. In particular, Sr and Mg show a trend towards low and stable values. Subsequently, from 10.5 to 8 ka b2k, the δ13C values show a high variability (-11 to -4), whereas the δ18O values are rather stable (between -6 and -7). Maxima in δ13C are interpreted as drier conditions in response to Bond events. These events possibly led to a change of the atmospheric circulation, affecting the vegetation in SE Spain, which evolved towards an open C3 vegetation at ca. 8 ka b2k concomitant with drier conditions

  19. The Dependencies of Ecosystem Pattern, Structure, and Dynamics on Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.

    2012-12-01

    A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data

  20. Distribution of mountain wetlands and their response to Holocene climate change in the Hachimantai Volcanic Groups, northeastern Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, N.; Sugai, T.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain wetlands, natural peatlands or lakes, with narrow catchment areas need abundant water supply and topography retaining water because of unstable water condition. This study examines wetland distribution with a focus on topography and snow accumulation, and discuss wetland evolution responding to Holocene climate change in the Hachimantai Volcanic Group, northeastern Japan, where the East Asian winter monsoon brings heavier snow and where has many wetlands of varied origin: crater lakes and wetlands in nivation hollows on original volcanic surfaces, and wetlands in depressions formed by landslides. We identified and classified wetlands using aerial photographs and 5-m and 10-m digital elevation models. Wetlands on the original volcanic surfaces tend to be concentrated under the small scarps with much snow or on saddles of the mountain ridge where snowmelt from surrounding slopes maintains a moist environment. More lake type wetlands are formed in the saddle than in the snowdrifts. That may represent that the saddles can correct more recharge water and may be a more suitable topographic condition for wetland formation and endurance. On the contrary, wetlands on landslides lie at the foot of the scarps where spring water can be abundantly supplied, regardless of snow accumulation. We used lithological analysis, 14C dating, tephra age data, and carbon contents of wetland cores to compare the evolution of wetlands, one (the Oyachi wetland) within a huge landslide and three (the Appi Highland wetlands) outside of a landslide area. We suggest that the evolution of the wetland in the landslide is primarily influenced by landslide movements and stream dissection rather than climate change. In the Appi Highland wetlands, peatlands appeared much later and at the almost same time in the Medieval Warm Period. We suggest that the development of mountain wetlands outside of landslide areas is primarily related to climate changes. Responsiveness of mountain wetlands to

  1. Population differentiation in the context of Holocene climate change for a migratory marine species, the southern elephant seal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrigan, L J; Fabiani, A; Chauke, L F; McMahon, C R; de Bruyn, M; Bester, M N; Bastos, A; Campagna, C; Muelbert, M M C; Hoelzel, A R

    2016-09-01

    Understanding observed patterns of connectivity requires an understanding of the evolutionary processes that determine genetic structure among populations, with the most common models being associated with isolation by distance, allopatry or vicariance. Pinnipeds are annual breeders with the capacity for extensive range overlap during seasonal migrations, establishing the potential for the evolution of isolation by distance. Here, we assess the pattern of differentiation among six breeding colonies of the southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, based on mtDNA and 15 neutral microsatellite DNA markers, and consider measures of their demography and connectivity. We show that all breeding colonies are genetically divergent and that connectivity in this highly mobile pinniped is not strongly associated with geographic distance, but more likely linked to Holocene climate change and demographic processes. Estimates of divergence times between populations were all after the last glacial maximum, and there was evidence for directional migration in a clockwise pattern (with the prevailing current) around the Antarctic. We discuss the mechanisms by which climate change may have contributed to the contemporary genetic structure of southern elephant seal populations and the broader implications. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  2. Modern pollen–climate relationships in north Xinjiang, northwestern China : Implications for pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Furong; Zhao, Yan; Gaillard, Marie José; Li, Huan; Sun, Jinghui; Xu, Qinghai

    2017-01-01

    Fossil pollen records are widely used to reconstruct past climate. Such reconstructions require that the relationships between pollen assemblages, vegetation, and climate are well understood. These can be studied in present circumstances given we assume that modern vegetation and climate are

  3. Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, Diego P; Gianoli, Ernesto; Morris, William F; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2017-02-01

    While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  4. Coring of Karakel’ Lake sediments (Teberda River valley and prospects for reconstruction of glaciation and Holocene climate history in the Caucasus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. N. Solomina

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Lacustrine sediments represent an important data source for glacial and palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Having a number of certain advantages, they can be successfully used as a means of specification of glacier situation and age of moraine deposits, as well as a basis for detailed climatic models of the Holocene. The article focuses on the coring of sediments of Lake Kakakel (Western Caucasus that has its goal to clarify the Holocene climatic history for the region, providing the sampling methods, lithologic description of the sediment core, obtained radiocarbon dating and the element composition of the sediments. The primary outlook over the results of coring of the sediments of the Lake Karakyol helped to reconsider the conventional opinion on the glacial fluctuations in the valley of Teberda and to assume the future possibility for high-definition palaeoclimatic reconstruction for Western Caucasus.

  5. Input variable selection for interpolating high-resolution climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Although the primary input data of climate interpolations are usually meteorological data, other related (independent) variables are frequently incorporated in the interpolation process. One such variable is elevation, which is known to have a strong influence on climate. This research investigates the potential of 4 additional ...

  6. Climate variability and sustainable food production: Insights from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The past two decades have seen invigorated debates on the causal link between climate variability and food crop production. This study[1] extends the debate further by investigating how climate variability has affected the production of four specific food crops: maize, millet, rice, and groundnuts in north-eastern Ghana.

  7. Thermal tolerance ranges and climate variability : A comparison between bivalves from differing climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compton, Tanya J.; Rijkenberg, Micha J. A.; Drent, Jan; Piersma, Theunis

    2007-01-01

    The climate variability hypothesis proposes that in variable temperate climates poikilothermic animals have wide thermal tolerance windows, whereas in constant tropical climates they have small thermal tolerance windows. In this study we quantified and compared the upper and lower lethal thermal

  8. Holocene climate change and the evidence for solar and other forcings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beer, J.; van Geel, B.; Battarbee, R.W.; Binney, H.A.

    2008-01-01

    Future climate change may have considerable effects on the hydrologic cycle and temperature, with significant consequences for sea level, food production, world economy, health, and biodiversity. How and why does the natural climate system vary on decadal to millennial time-scales? Do we

  9. Present and Future Modes of Low Frequency Climate Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cane, Mark A.

    2014-02-20

    This project addressed area (1) of the FOA, “Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability”. Our overarching objective is to detect, describe and understand the changes in low frequency variability between model simulations of the preindustrial climate and simulations of a doubled CO2 climate. The deliverables are a set of papers providing a dynamical characterization of interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in coupled models with attention to the changes in this low frequency variability between pre-industrial concentrations of greenhouse gases and a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The principle mode of analysis, singular vector decomposition, is designed to advance our physical, mechanistic understanding. This study will include external natural variability due to solar and volcanic aerosol variations as well as variability internal to the climate system. An important byproduct is a set of analysis tools for estimating global singular vector structures from the archived output of model simulations.

  10. Holocene Substrate Influences on Plant and Fire Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briles, C.; Whitlock, C. L.

    2011-12-01

    The role of substrates in facilitating plant responses to climate change in the past has received little attention. Ecological studies, documenting the relative role of fertile and infertile substrates in mediating the effects of climate change, lack the temporal information that paleoecological lake studies provide on how plants have responded under equal, larger and more rapid past climate events than today. In this paper, pollen and macroscopic charcoal preserved in the sediments of eight lakes surrounded by infertile ultramafic soils and more fertile soils in the Klamath Mountains of northern California were analyzed. Comparison of late-Quaternary paleoecological sites suggests that infertile and fertile substrates supported distinctly different plant communities. Trees and shrubs on infertile substrates were less responsive to climate change than those on fertile substrates, with the only major compositional change occurring at the glacial/interglacial transition (~11.5ka), when temperature rose 5oC. Trees and shrubs on fertile substrates were more responsive to climate changes, and tracked climate by moving along elevational gradients, including during more recent climate events such as the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Fire regimes were similar until 4ka on both substrate types. After 4ka, understory fuels on infertile substrates became sparse and fire activity decreased, while on fertile substrates forests became increasingly denser and fire activity increased. The complacency of plant communities on infertile sites to climate change contrasts with the individualistic and rapid adjustments of species on fertile sites. The findings differ from observations on shorter time scales that show the most change in herb cover and richness in the last 60 years on infertile substrates. Thus, the paleorecord provides unique long-term ecological data necessary to evaluate the response of plants to future climate change under different levels of soil

  11. Disease in a more variable and unpredictable climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, T. A.; Raffel, T.; Rohr, J. R.; Halstead, N.; Venesky, M.; Romansic, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global climate change is shifting the dynamics of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. Despite this, the role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial. Climate change is expected to increase climate variability in addition to increasing mean temperatures, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America support this framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was inconsistent with the pattern of Bd growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. Consistent with our laboratory experiments, increased regional temperature variability associated with global El Niño climatic events was the best predictor of widespread amphibian losses in the genus Atelopus. Thus, incorporating the effects of small-scale temporal variability in climate can greatly improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on disease.

  12. 8000-year monsoonal record from Himalaya revealing reinforcement of tropical and global climate systems since mid-Holocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Pradeep; Agnihotri, Rajesh; Sharma, Deepti; Meena, Narendra; Sundriyal, Y P; Saxena, Anju; Bhushan, Ravi; Sawlani, R; Banerji, Upasana S; Sharma, C; Bisht, P; Rana, N; Jayangondaperumal, R

    2017-11-06

    We provide the first continuous Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) climate record for the higher Himalayas (Kedarnath, India) by analyzing a 14 C-dated peat sequence covering the last ~8000 years, with ~50 years temporal resolution. The ISM variability inferred using various proxies reveal striking similarity with the Greenland ice core (GISP2) temperature record and rapid denitrification changes recorded in the sediments off Peru. The Kedarnath record provides compelling evidence for a reorganization of the global climate system taking place at ~5.5 ka BP possibly after sea level stabilization and the advent of inter-annual climate variability governed by the modern ENSO phenomenon. The ISM record also captures warm-wet and cold-dry conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, respectively.

  13. Lake Sediment Records as an Indicator of Holocene Fluctuations of Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru and Regional Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroup, J. S.; Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.; Beal, S. A.; Smith, C. A.; Baranes, H. E.

    2012-12-01

    The past fluctuations of Quelccaya Ice Cap, (QIC; 13°S, 70°W, 5200 m asl) located in the southeastern Peruvian Andes, provide a record of tropical climate since the last glacial-interglacial transition. A detailed surficial geomorphic record of past glacial extents developed over the last several decades (e.g. Mercer and Palacios 1977; Buffen et al. 2009; Kelly et al. 2012 accepted) demonstrates that QIC is a dynamic glacial system. These records show that the ice cap was larger than present and retreating by ~11,500 yr BP, and smaller than present between ~7,000 and ~4,600 yr BP. The most recent advance occurred during the late Holocene (Little Ice Age;LIA), dated with 10Be surface exposure ages (510±90 yrs (n = 8)) (Stroup et al. in prep.). This overrode earlier deposits obscuring a complete Holocene record; we aim to address the gaps in glacial chronology using the sedimentary record archived in lakes. We retrieved two sets cores (8 and 5 m-long) from Laguna Challpacocha (13.91°S, 70.86°W, 5040 m asl), a lake that currently receives meltwater from QIC. Four radiocarbon ages from the cores suggest a continuous record dating to at least ~10,500 cal. yr BP. Variations in magnetic susceptibility, percent organic and inorganic carbon, bulk density, grayscale and X-ray fluorescence chemistry indicate changes in the amount of clastic sediment deposition. We interpret clastic sediments to have been deposited from ice cap meltwater, thus indicating more extensive ice. Clastic sediments compose the top of the core from 4 to 30 cm depth, below there is a sharp transition to organic sediments radiocarbon dated to (500±30 and 550±20 cal. yr BP). The radiocarbon ages are similar to the 10Be dated (LIA) glacial position. At least three other clastic units exist in the core; dating to ~2600-4300, ~4800-7300 and older then ~10,500 cal. yr BP based on a linear age model with four radiocarbon dates. We obtained two, ~4 m long, cores from Laguna Yanacocha (13.95°S,70.87

  14. Insolation driven biomagnetic response to Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, S.; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

    2015-01-01

    The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly

  15. Toward explaining the Holocene carbon dioxide and carbon isotope records: Results from transient ocean carbon cycle-climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menviel, L.; Joos, F.

    2012-03-01

    The Bern3D model was applied to quantify the mechanisms of carbon cycle changes during the Holocene (last 11,000 years). We rely on scenarios from the literature to prescribe the evolution of shallow water carbonate deposition and of land carbon inventory changes over the glacial termination (18,000 to 11,000 years ago) and the Holocene and modify these scenarios within uncertainties. Model results are consistent with Holocene records of atmospheric CO2 and δ13C as well as the spatiotemporal evolution of δ13C and carbonate ion concentration in the deep sea. Deposition of shallow water carbonate, carbonate compensation of land uptake during the glacial termination, land carbon uptake and release during the Holocene, and the response of the ocean-sediment system to marine changes during the termination contribute roughly equally to the reconstructed late Holocene pCO2 rise of 20 ppmv. The 5 ppmv early Holocene pCO2 decrease reflects terrestrial uptake largely compensated by carbonate deposition and ocean sediment responses. Additional small contributions arise from Holocene changes in sea surface temperature, ocean circulation, and export productivity. The Holocene pCO2 variations result from the subtle balance of forcings and processes acting on different timescales and partly in opposite direction as well as from memory effects associated with changes occurring during the termination. Different interglacial periods with different forcing histories are thus expected to yield different pCO2 evolutions as documented by ice cores.

  16. Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin; Carreira, José A; Linares, Juan C

    2017-11-21

    Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

  17. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Dixon, R.K. [U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

  18. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R.; Dixon, R.K.

    1995-01-01

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country's vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations

  19. Response of northern hemisphere environmental and atmospheric conditions to climate changes using Greenland aerosol records from the Eemian to the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, H.

    2017-12-01

    The Northern Hemisphere experienced dramatic climate changes over the last glacial cycle, including vast ice sheet expansion and frequent abrupt climate events. Moreover, high northern latitudes during the last interglacial (Eemian) were warmer than today and may provide guidance for future climate change scenarios. However, little evidence exists regarding the environmental alterations connected to these climate changes. Using aerosol concentration records in decadal resolution from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) over the last 128,000 years we extract quantitative information on environmental changes, including the first comparison of northern hemisphere environmental conditions between the warmer than present Eemian and the early Holocene. Separating source changes from transport effects, we find that changes in the ice concentration greatly overestimate the changes in atmospheric concentrations in the aerosol source region, the latter mirroring changes in aerosol emissions. Glacial times were characterized by a strong reduction in terrestrial biogenic emissions (only 10-20% of the early Holocene value) reflecting the net loss of vegetated area in mid to high latitudes, while rapid climate changes during the glacial had essentially no effect on terrestrial biogenic aerosol emissions. An increase in terrestrial dust emissions of approximately a factor of eight during peak glacial and cold stadial intervals indicates higher aridity and dust storm activity in Asian deserts. Glacial sea salt aerosol emissions increased only moderately (by approximately 50%), likely due to sea ice expansion, while marked stadial/interstadial variations in sea salt concentrations in the ice reflect mainly changes in wet deposition en route. Eemian ice contains lower aerosol concentrations than ice from the early Holocene, due to shortened atmospheric residence time during the warmer Eemian, suggesting that generally 2°C warmer climate in high northern latitudes did not

  20. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climatic variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruane, A C; Hudson, N I; Asseng, S

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and ......-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.......We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and we...... evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal...

  1. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  2. Roles of Sea Level and Climate Change in the Development of Holocene Deltaic Sequences in the Yellow Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Milliman, J. D.

    2002-12-01

    Both post-glacial sea-level and climatic changes are preserved in the the shallow, low gradient, sediment-dominated Yellow Sea. As a result of rapid flooding during melt-water pulse (MWP) 1A, 14.3-14.1 ka BP, sea level reached the southern edge of the North Yellow Sea (NYS), and after MWP-1B (11.6-11.4 ka BP) sea level entered the Bohai Sea. The first major Yellow River-derived deltaic deposit formed in the NYS during decelerated transgression following MWP-1B and increased river discharge in response to re-intensification of the summer monsoon about 11 ka cal BP. A second subaqueous delta formed in the South Yellow Sea about 9-7 ka BP during decelerated transgression after MWP-1C flooding and in response to the southern shift of the Yellow River mouth. The modern subaqueous and subaerial deltas in the west Bahai Gulf and (to a lesser extent) along the Jiangus coast have formed during the modern sea-level highstand. These changing Holocene patterns are most clearly illustrated by a short film clip.

  3. Holocene fire, vegetation, and climate dynamics inferred from charcoal and pollen record in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wenwei; Zhao, Yan; Qin, Feng

    2017-10-01

    Understanding fire history and its driving mechanisms can provide valuable insights into present fire regime (intensity, severity and frequency), the interplay between vegetation and fire, and trigger of fire activities. Here we reconstruct the Holocene fire history in the Zoige Basin on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, on the basis of sedimentary micro-charcoal record over the last 10.0 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP) and discuss the influences of vegetation and climate on fire dynamics. Our results show that regional fire was active at 10.0-3.3 ka and a significant decrease in fire activity characterized the period after 3.3 ka. The high regional fire frequency at 10.0-3.3 ka is consistent with the forested landscape suggested by high affinity scores of cool mixed forest biome (mainly consisted of spruce), implying that fire dynamics during this period was generally controlled by the variations of arboreal biomass and summer temperature. During 6.3-4.6 ka the prevailing Asian summer monsoon provided increased moisture to this region and thus suppressed fire activities to an extent, despite the availability of abundant biomass. Declined tree biomass after 3.3 ka probably accounted for the decreased fire activities. In addition, two successive fire events at ca. 3.5-3.3 ka were likely responsible for the subsequent abrupt decline of forest components in the landscape.

  4. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  5. Mid- to late Holocene climate-driven regime shifts inferred from diatom, ostracod and stable isotope records from Lake Son Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Anja; Turner, Falko; Lauterbach, Stefan; Plessen, Birgit; Krahn, Kim J.; Glodniok, Sven; Mischke, Steffen; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman; Mingram, Jens; Schwalb, Antje

    2017-12-01

    Arid Central Asia represents a key region for understanding climate variability and interactions in the Northern Hemisphere. Patterns and mechanisms of Holocene climate change in arid Central Asia are, however, only partially understood. Multi-proxy data combining diatom, ostracod, sedimentological, geochemical and stable isotope analyses from a ca. 6000-year-old lake sediment core from Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) show distinct and repeated changes in species assemblages. Diatom- and ostracod-inferred conductivity shifts between meso-euhaline and freshwater conditions suggest water balance and regime shifts. Organism-derived data are corroborated by stable isotope, mineralogical and geochemical records, underlining that Son Kol was affected by strong lake level fluctuations of several meters. The δ13Ccarb/δ18Ocarb correlation shows repeated switchovers from a closed to an open lake system. From 6000 to 3800 and 3250 to 1950 cal. yr BP, Son Kol was a closed basin lake with higher conductivities, increased nutrient availability and a water level located below the modern outflow. Son Kol became again a hydrologically open lake at 3800 and 1950 cal. yr BP. Comparisons to other local and regional paleoclimate records indicate that these regime shifts were largely controlled by changing intensity and position of the Westerlies and the Siberian Anticyclone that triggered changes in the amount of winter precipitation. A strong influence of the Westerlies ca. 5000-4400, 3800-3250 and since 1950 cal. yr BP enhanced the amount of precipitation during spring, autumn and winter, whereas cold and dry winters prevailed during phases with a strong Siberian Anticyclone and southward shifted Westerlies at ca. 6000-5000, 4400-3800 and 3250-1950 cal. yr BP. Similarities between variations in winter precipitation at Son Kol and records of the predominant NAO-mode further suggest a teleconnection between wet (dry) winter climate in Central Asia and a positive (negative) NAO

  6. Response of Landscapes of the Sikhote-Alin Western Slopes to the Middle-Late Holocene Climatic Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzhigaeva, N. G.; Ganzey, L. A.; Panichev, A. M.; Grebennikova, T. A.; Mokhova, L. M.; Kopoteva, T. A.; Kudryavtseva, E. P.; Arslanov, Kh. A.; Maksimov, F. E.; Starikova, A. A.; Zakusin, S. V.

    2017-12-01

    The response of landscape biotic components of the western slope of the Sikhote-Alin Mountains (Bikin River middle flow) to the Middle-Late Holocene climate changes is discussed. The paleoreconstruction object was the Krasny Yar mari, which developed under the control of multidirectional short-term climatic changes. The last millennium was marked by particularly rapid and frequent changes in the local landscapes. The closely spaced orographic barrier strongly affected the development of biotic components and changes in the swamp hydrological regime. The moisture dynamics within the river catchment considerably controlled the development and change of the peat-forming plants. Several stages of the mari development were reconstructed; each began from the accumulation of eutrophic peat. It was followed by the transitional eutrophic-mesotrophic stage, with a higher role of atmospheric supply. The larch forests appeared in this part of the valley within the Atlantic-Subboreal cooling period. Korean pine developed in the forest vegetation in the low mountain relief at the beginning of the Subboreal and became one of the leading trees 2.6-2.3 ka BP. The lower role of the Korean pine and birch forest expansion in the first half of the Subatlantic could be related to the fires. The broadleaf-Korean pine forests became widespread in the Medieval Warm Period. Local swamp landscapes changed dramatically in the Little Ice Age, while the slope vegetation was not subject to any major changes. The landscapes were also affected by the fires, which became more frequent. The derivative communities with birch appeared on the mari. Moreover, this part of the valley was occasionally subject to heavy flooding.

  7. Changes in climatic conditions, vegetation cover and erosion during the Holocene in southeast Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bellin, N.; Vanacker, V.

    2009-07-01

    The present-day landscape in Southeast Spain is the result of a long occupation history. To have a better understanding of the impact of human societies on soil degradation, we analysed the main shifts in vegetation cover, climate and human occupation for the last 12000 years. Our analyses use recently published information from continental and marine pollen series. The data suggest that climatic factors appear to be important driving factors of vegetation degradation induced by an increased aridity that is already recorded at about 5000 years ago. (Author) 19 refs.

  8. Changes in climatic conditions, vegetation cover and erosion during the Holocene in southeast Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellin, N.; Vanacker, V.

    2009-01-01

    The present-day landscape in Southeast Spain is the result of a long occupation history. To have a better understanding of the impact of human societies on soil degradation, we analysed the main shifts in vegetation cover, climate and human occupation for the last 12000 years. Our analyses use recently published information from continental and marine pollen series. The data suggest that climatic factors appear to be important driving factors of vegetation degradation induced by an increased aridity that is already recorded at about 5000 years ago. (Author) 19 refs.

  9. CLIMATE CHANGE, VARIABILITY AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN ZIMBABWE'S RURAL COMMUNITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gukurume Simbarashe

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural productivity in the communal area of Bikita. The article further examines the adaptation and mitigation strategies devised by farmers to deal with the vagaries of climate change and variability. The sustainability of these is also interrogated in this article. This study juxtaposed qualitative and quantitative methodologies albeit with more bias on the former. A total of 40 farmers were sampled for unstructured interviews and focus group discussions. This article argues that the adverse impacts of climate change and variability are felt heavily by the poor communal farmers who are directly dependent on agriculture for livelihood. From the study, some of the widely reported signs of climate variability in Bikita included late and unpredictable rains, high temperatures (heat waves, successive drought, shortening rainfall seasons and seasonal changes in the timing of rainfall. The paper argues that climate change has compounded the vulnerability of peasant farmers in the drought - prone district of Bikita plunging them into food insecurity and abject poverty. It emerged in the study that some of effects of climate variability felt by communal farmers in Bikita included failure of crops, death of livestock and low crop yields, all of which have led to declining agricultural productivity. Findings in this study however established that communal farmers have not been passive victims of the vagaries of climate change and variability. They have rationally responded to it through various adaptation and mitigation strategies both individually and collectively.

  10. Late-Holocene palaeoenvironments of Southern Crimea: Soils, soil-climate relationship and human impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lisetskii, Fedor N.; Stolba, Vladimir; Pichura, Vitalii I.

    2017-01-01

    Occupying 4% of Crimea’s territory, the sub-Mediterranean landscapes of Southern Crimea stand out for their distinct soil-climatic conditions and record of human activity. This paper presents the results of study of the newly formed and well-dated soils from 21 archaeological sites, making...

  11. Subfossil bog-pine horizons document climate and ecosystem changes during the Mid-Holocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eckstein, J.; Leuschner, H.H.; Bauerochse, A.; Sass-Klaassen, U.

    2009-01-01

    Extended dendrochronological investigations were performed on subfossil pine entombed in peat layers of former raised bogs in Lower Saxony (NW Germany). The aim was to study of dynamics in bog development in response to local environmental conditions and regional changes in climate throughout the

  12. Volcanic influence on centennial to millennial Holocene Greenland temperature change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobashi, Takuro; Menviel, Laurie; Jeltsch-Thömmes, Aurich; Vinther, Bo M; Box, Jason E; Muscheler, Raimund; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Pfister, Patrik L; Döring, Michael; Leuenberger, Markus; Wanner, Heinz; Ohmura, Atsumu

    2017-05-03

    Solar variability has been hypothesized to be a major driver of North Atlantic millennial-scale climate variations through the Holocene along with orbitally induced insolation change. However, another important climate driver, volcanic forcing has generally been underestimated prior to the past 2,500 years partly owing to the lack of proper proxy temperature records. Here, we reconstruct seasonally unbiased and physically constrained Greenland Summit temperatures over the Holocene using argon and nitrogen isotopes within trapped air in a Greenland ice core (GISP2). We show that a series of volcanic eruptions through the Holocene played an important role in driving centennial to millennial-scale temperature changes in Greenland. The reconstructed Greenland temperature exhibits significant millennial correlations with K + and Na + ions in the GISP2 ice core (proxies for atmospheric circulation patterns), and δ 18 O of Oman and Chinese Dongge cave stalagmites (proxies for monsoon activity), indicating that the reconstructed temperature contains hemispheric signals. Climate model simulations forced with the volcanic forcing further suggest that a series of large volcanic eruptions induced hemispheric-wide centennial to millennial-scale variability through ocean/sea-ice feedbacks. Therefore, we conclude that volcanic activity played a critical role in driving centennial to millennial-scale Holocene temperature variability in Greenland and likely beyond.

  13. Application of /sup 14/C-dating to sedimentary geology and climatology: Sea-level and climate change during the Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakai, Nobuyuki; Ohishi, Shyoji; Kuriyama, Toyoko; Nakamura, Toshio

    1987-11-01

    AMS /sup 14/C dating of small sized fossil shells, wood chips and sedimentary humic matter has been applied to the investigation of paleoclimatic and sea-level changes in the Holocene, using three estuarine and brackish lake sediment cores, drilled in Kawasaki city and Lake Hamanako, Japan. Precise and detailed ages at differing depths clarified large transitions of Holocene sedimentation rates, of two orders of magnitude. The vertical variation in delta/sup 13/C and C/N results for sedimentary organic matter, combined with AMS /sup 14/C ages, established continous climatic and sea-level fluctuation patterns through time and indicated the existence of neoglaciation coincident with the marine regression at 7500 to 7000 yr BP.

  14. Influence of climate variability on large rivers runoff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Nurtaev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In accordance with IPCC Report the influence of climate change on the water cycle will increase hydrologic variability by means of changing of precipitation patterns, melting of ice and change of runoff. Precipitation has increased in high northern latitudes and decreased in southern latitudes. This study presents an analysis of river runoffs trends in different climatic zones of the world in condition of climate change.

  15. CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CHANGE, AND CONSEQUENCES IN ESTUARIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change operates at global, hemispheric, and regional scales, sometimes involving rapid shifts in ocean and atmospheric circulation. Changes of global scope occurred in the transition into the Little Ice Age (1350-1880) and subsequent warming during the 20th century. In th...

  16. Effects of temporal changes in climate variables on crop production ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    comprehensive study of the impacts of climate variability on some common classes of food crops. (tubers, grains ... erosion, incidents of pests and diseases, and sea level rise (Onyekwelu et .... calamities and human sufferings. The productivity ...

  17. Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on the Mangrove ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Already under threat from water pollution, deforestation and overfishing (black conch), ... local authorities and other stakeholders, will document the impact of climate ... Adaptation strategies for two Colombian cities were discussed at ADAPTO's ... International Water Resources Association, in close collaboration with IDRC, ...

  18. Similar speleothem δ18O signals indicating diverging climate variations in inland central Asia and monsoonal south Asia during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Liya; Zhang, Xiaojian

    2017-04-01

    High-resolution and precisely dated speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from Asia have provided key evidence for past monsoonal changes. It is found that δ18O records of stalagmites from Kesang Cave (42°52'N, 81°45'E, Xinjiang, China) in inland central Asia were very similar to those from Qunf Cave (17°10'N, 54°18'E, southern Oman) in South Asia, shifting from light to heavy throughout the Holocene, which was regarded as a signal that strong Asian summer monsoon (ASM) may have intruded into the Kesang Cave site and/or adjacent areas in inland central Asia to produce heavy rainfall during the high insolation times (e.g. the early Holocene). However, this is in contrast to conclusions based on other Holocene proxy records and modeling simulations, showing a persistent wetting trend in arid central Asia during the Holocene with a dryer condition in the early Holocene and the wettest condition in the late Holocene. With an analysis of model-proxy data comparison, we revealed a possible physical mechanism responsible for the Holocene evolution of moisture/precipitation in Asian summer monsoon (ASM)-dominated regions and that in the inland central Asia. It is revealed that a recurrent circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern in the summertime mid-latitude circulation of the Northern Hemisphere was closely related to the ASM and the climate of inland central Asia, acting as a bridge linking the ASM to insolation, high-latitude forcing (North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST)), and low-latitude forcing (tropical Ocean SST). Also, the CGT influence speleothem δ18O values in South Asia via its effect on the amount of precipitation. In addition, the moisture source from the Indian Ocean is associated with relatively high δ18O values compared with that from the North Atlantic Ocean, leading to increased precipitation δ18O values. Hence, the CGT has probably been the key factor responsible for the in-phase relationship in speleothem δ18O values (Kesang Cave

  19. Effects of temporal changes in climate variables on crop production ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate variability and change have been implicated to have significant impacts on global and regional food production particularly the common stable food crops performance in tropical sub-humid climatic zone. However, the extent and nature of these impacts still remain uncertain. In this study, records of crop yields and ...

  20. Impacts of climate variability and change on beekeeping productivity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated impacts of climate variability and change on Beekeeping productivity in Sunya, Kijungu and Olgira villages in Kiteto District in Manyara region in Tanzania. Specific objectives of the study were to identify the contribution of honey bees to community livelihoods, to identify climate related factors which ...

  1. Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater resources in Nigeria. ... African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology ... of climate change induced groundwater impacts due to largely multi-scale local and regional heterogeneity, there is need to evaluate groundwater resources, quality and ...

  2. Spatiotemporal modes of climatic variability: building blocks of complex networks?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vejmelka, Martin; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Paluš, Milan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 14, - (2012), s. 14275 ISSN 1607-7962. [European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012. 22.04.2012-27.04.2012, Vienna] R&D Projects: GA ČR GCP103/11/J068 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : climate variability * dimensionality reduction * principal component analysis * surrogate data * climate network Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  3. Cocoa farming households' vulnerability to climate variability in Ekiti ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rural livelihoods in south western Nigeria are at risk to climate variability on the short run and climate change on the long run. This subjects agro ecological niches to high sensitivity and exposure thus reducing the adaptive capacity. Vulnerability results and the cocoa farming households, the major contributors to the ...

  4. Effects of climate variability and climate change on crop production in southern Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Traore, B.; Corbeels, M.; Wijk, van M.T.; Rufino, M.C.; Giller, K.E.

    2013-01-01

    In West Africa predictions of future changes in climate and especially rainfall are highly uncertain, and up to now no long-term analyses are available of the effects of climate on crop production. This study analyses long-term trends in climate variability at N'Tarla and Sikasso in southern Mali

  5. Holocene vegetation and climatic variations in Central India: A study based on multiproxy evidences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauhan, M. S.; Sharma, Anupam; Phartiyal, Binita; Kumar, Kamlesh

    2013-11-01

    Palynology, texture, mineralogy, geochemistry, and magnetic susceptibility analysis of a 2 m deep sediment core from Padauna Swamp, southeastern Madhya Pradesh infers that between 8600 and 7500 cal yr BP a warm and relatively less-humid climate prevailed with open tree-savannahs dominated by grasses followed by sedges, Artemisia and members of Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthaceae with scanty trees viz., Schrebera, Aegle marmelos and Sterculia urens. This is well supported by lower organic to carbonate carbon ratio, coarser texture having relatively low CIA and magnetic susceptibility values and presence of some primary minerals. Between 7500 and 6250 cal yr BP the tree-savannahs were succeeded by open mixed deciduous forests with the invasion of a few more trees viz., Madhuca indica, Holoptelea, Emblica officinalis, Mitragyna parvifolia and members of Anacardiaceae in response to onset of a warm and humid climate. A considerable rise in organic carbon generated from the degradation of plentiful biomass along with increase in clay content with signs of kaolinite and increase in immobile over mobile elements with slightly higher CIA and magnetic susceptibility values also suggest climatic amelioration. The presence of ruderal plants such as Artemisia, Cannabis sativa and Cheno/Am further infers initiation of human activities in the region. Between 6250 and 2800 cal yr BP, the mixed deciduous forests became more diverse and dense, subduing grasses and other herbaceous elements. Sporadic incursion of Shorea robusta (Sal) in forest floristic was recorded around 5000 cal yr BP. The overall change in the vegetation mosaic reflects that a warm and more-humid climate prevailed in the region, probably on account of invigoration of southwest monsoon. This observation is further corroborated by other proxy data showing a spurt in organic/inorganic carbon ratio, increase in clay content with matured mineralogy, significantly higher CIA and magnetic susceptibility values. Since 2800 cal

  6. The Variable Climate Impact of Volcanic Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graf, H.

    2011-12-01

    The main effect of big volcanic eruptions in the climate system is due to their efficient transport of condensable gases and their precursors into the stratosphere. There the formation of aerosols leads to effects on atmospheric radiation transfer inducing a reduction of incoming solar radiation by reflection (i.e. cooling of the Earth surface) and absorption of near infrared radiation (i.e. heating) in the aerosol laden layers. In the talk processes determining the climate effect of an eruption will be illustrated by examples, mainly from numerical modelling. The amount of gases released from a magma during an eruption and the efficiency of their transport into very high altitudes depends on the geological setting (magma type) and eruption style. While mid-sized eruption plumes of Plinian style quickly can develop buoyancy by entrainment of ambient air, very large eruptions with high magma flux rates often tend to collapsing plumes and co-ignimbrite style. These cover much bigger areas and are less efficient in entraining ambient air. Vertical transport in these plumes is chaotic and less efficient, leading to lower neutral buoyancy height and less gas and particles reaching high stratospheric altitudes. Explosive energy and amount of released condensable gases are not the only determinants for the climatic effect of an eruption. The effect on shortwave radiation is not linear with the amount of aerosols formed since according to the Lambert-Beer Law atmospheric optical depth reaches a saturation limit with increased absorber concentration. In addition, if more condensable gas is available for aerosol growth, particles become larger and this affects their optical properties to less reflection and more absorption. Larger particles settle out faster, thus reducing the life time of the aerosol disturbance. Especially for big tropical eruptions the strong heating of the stratosphere in low latitudes leads to changes in atmospheric wave propagation by strengthened

  7. On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafetta, Nicola; Milani, Franco; Bianchini, Antonio; Ortolani, Sergio

    2017-04-01

    evolves from more circular shapes (e≈0.590) to a more elliptical ones (e≈0.598), that is while the orbital system is slowly exploding or bursting outward. Since at this timescale the PMC eccentricity variation is relatively small (e=0.594±0.004), the physical origin of the astronomical 2318 yr cycle is better identified and distinguished from faster orbital oscillations by the times it takes the PMC to make pericycles and epicycles around the Sun and the times it takes to move from minimum to maximum distance from the Sun within those arcs. These particular proxies reveal a macroscopic 2318 yr period oscillation, together with other three stable outer planet orbital resonances with periods of 159, 171 and 185 yr. This 2318 yr oscillation is found to be spectrally coherent with the Δ14C Holocene record with a statistical confidence above 95%, as determined by spectral analysis and cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis. At the Hallstatt time scale, maxima of the radionucleotide production occurred when, within each pericycle-apocycle orbital arc, the time required by the PMC to move from the minimum to the maximum distance from the Sun varies from about 8 to 16 years while the time required by the same to move from the maximum to the minimum distance from the Sun varies from about 7 to 14 years, and viceversa. Thus, we found that a fast expansion of the Sun-PMC orbit followed by a slow contraction appears to prevent cosmic rays to enter within the system inner region while a slow expansion followed by a fast contraction favors it. Similarly, the same dynamics could modulate the amount of interplanetary/cosmic dust falling on Earth. Indeed, many other stable orbital resonance frequencies (e.g. at periods of 20 yr, 45 yr, 60 yr, 85 yr, 159-171-185 yr, etc.) are found in radionucleotide, solar, aurora and climate records, as determined in the scientific literature. Thus, the result supports a planetary theory of solar and/or climate variation that has recently

  8. 8800 years of high-altitude vegetation and climate history at the Rutor Glacier forefield, Italian Alps. Evidence of middle Holocene timberline rise and glacier contraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badino, Federica; Ravazzi, Cesare; Vallè, Francesca; Pini, Roberta; Aceti, Amelia; Brunetti, Michele; Champvillair, Elena; Maggi, Valter; Maspero, Francesco; Perego, Renata; Orombelli, Giuseppe

    2018-04-01

    Sedimentary archives at or near the timberline ecotone in Alpine glaciated areas contain records to study Holocene climate change and the interplay between climate, ecosystems, and humans. We focused on records of timberline and glacier oscillations in the Rutor Glacier forefield (Western Italian Alps) in the last 8800 years. Human activity in this area was negligible for most of the Holocene. We adopted an integrative stratigraphic approach including proxies for glacier advance and timberline estimation, sedimentary events, and reconstructed temperatures. Changes in timberline ecotone correlate to climate until the Middle Ages. Pollen-stratigraphic evidence of a primary plant succession highlights a lag beween local deglaciation and the first reliable 14C age. The radiocarbon chronology points to a prolonged phase of glacier contraction between 8.8 and 3.7 ka cal BP. Even later the glacier remained within its LIA limits. Between 8.4 and 4 ka cal BP MAT-inferred TJuly fluctuated near 12.4 °C, ca. 3.1 °C higher than today. During this period, a Pinus cembra forest belt grew at 2600 m asl with an upper limit of tree groves placed 434 ± 310 m above the current open forest limit. This Holocene phase of thermal maximum ended between 3.98 and 3.51 ± 70 ka cal BP and with a substantial rearrangement of forest composition; temperature reconstruction shows a decrease of 1.8 °C. This climate deterioration concluded the Subboreal thermal optimum, mirroring glacial advances widely documented in the Alps. The Rutor Glacier advanced at ca. AD 1093 ± 65, and remained inside the LIA maximum extent. The LIA started since AD 1594, and culminated between AD 1751 and 1864.

  9. Evidence of climatic change during Holocene in the nearshore regions of Konkan (central west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gujar, A.R.; Guptha, M.V.S.

    grains, variation in the stability index and significantly poor diversity and scarcity of benthic foraminifera. In contrast, during the mid Holocene humid phase, the number of benthic foraminifera was very high. It is also remarked that Ammonia beccarii...

  10. Diatom community response to climate variability over the past 37,000 years in the sub-tropics of the Southern Hemisphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hembrow, Sarah C., E-mail: sarah.hembrow@scu.edu.au [School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW 2480 (Australia); Taffs, Kathryn H. [School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW 2480 (Australia); Atahan, Pia [Institute for Environmental Research, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Kirrawee, NSW 2232 (Australia); Parr, Jeff [School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW 2480 (Australia); Zawadzki, Atun; Heijnis, Henk [Institute for Environmental Research, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Kirrawee, NSW 2232 (Australia)

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is impacting global surface water resources, increasing the need for a deeper understanding of the interaction between climate and biological diversity. This is particularly the case in the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics, where little information exists on the aquatic biota response to climate variations. Palaeolimnological techniques, in particular the use of diatoms, are well established and can significantly contribute to the understanding of climatic variability and the impacts that change in climate have on aquatic ecosystems. A sediment core from Lake McKenzie, Fraser Island (Australia), was used to investigate interactions between climate influences and aquatic ecosystems. This study utilises a combination of proxies including biological (diatom), geochemical and chronological techniques to investigate long-term aquatic changes within the perched-dune lake. A combination of {sup 210}Pb and AMS {sup 14}C dates showed that the retrieved sediment represented a history of ca. 37,000 cal. yBP. The sedimentation rate in Lake McKenzie is very low, ranging on average from 0.11 mm to 0.26 mm per year. A sediment hiatus was observed between ca. 18,300 and 14,000 cal. yBP suggesting a period of dry conditions at the site. The diatom record shows little variability over the period of record, with benthic, freshwater acidic tolerant species dominating. Relative abundance of planktonic species and geochemical results indicates a period of increased water depth and lake productivity in the early Holocene and a gradual decrease in effective precipitation throughout the Holocene. Results from this study not only support earlier work conducted on Fraser Island using pollen reconstructions but also demonstrate that diatom community diversity has been relatively consistent throughout the Holocene and late Pleistocene with only minor cyclical fluctuation evident. This record is consistent with the few other aquatic palaeoecological records from the Southern

  11. Diatom community response to climate variability over the past 37,000 years in the sub-tropics of the Southern Hemisphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hembrow, Sarah C.; Taffs, Kathryn H.; Atahan, Pia; Parr, Jeff; Zawadzki, Atun; Heijnis, Henk

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is impacting global surface water resources, increasing the need for a deeper understanding of the interaction between climate and biological diversity. This is particularly the case in the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics, where little information exists on the aquatic biota response to climate variations. Palaeolimnological techniques, in particular the use of diatoms, are well established and can significantly contribute to the understanding of climatic variability and the impacts that change in climate have on aquatic ecosystems. A sediment core from Lake McKenzie, Fraser Island (Australia), was used to investigate interactions between climate influences and aquatic ecosystems. This study utilises a combination of proxies including biological (diatom), geochemical and chronological techniques to investigate long-term aquatic changes within the perched-dune lake. A combination of 210 Pb and AMS 14 C dates showed that the retrieved sediment represented a history of ca. 37,000 cal. yBP. The sedimentation rate in Lake McKenzie is very low, ranging on average from 0.11 mm to 0.26 mm per year. A sediment hiatus was observed between ca. 18,300 and 14,000 cal. yBP suggesting a period of dry conditions at the site. The diatom record shows little variability over the period of record, with benthic, freshwater acidic tolerant species dominating. Relative abundance of planktonic species and geochemical results indicates a period of increased water depth and lake productivity in the early Holocene and a gradual decrease in effective precipitation throughout the Holocene. Results from this study not only support earlier work conducted on Fraser Island using pollen reconstructions but also demonstrate that diatom community diversity has been relatively consistent throughout the Holocene and late Pleistocene with only minor cyclical fluctuation evident. This record is consistent with the few other aquatic palaeoecological records from the Southern Hemisphere sub

  12. Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

    2014-12-01

    Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

  13. Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folkert Boersma, K.; Muller, Jan-Peter

    2015-04-01

    Satellite data are of central interest to the QA4ECV project. Satellites have revolutionized the Earth's observation system of climate change and air quality over the past three decades, providing continuous data for the entire Earth. However, many users of these data are lost in the fog as to the quality of these satellite data. Because of this, the European Union expressed in its 2013 FP7 Space Research Call a need for reliable, traceable, and understandable quality information on satellite data records that could serve as a blueprint contribution to a future Copernicus Climate Change Service. The potential of satellite data to benefit climate change and air quality services is too great to be ignored. QA4ECV therefore bridges the gap between end-users of satellite data and the satellite data products. We are developing an internationally acceptable Quality Assurance (QA) framework that provides understandable and traceable quality information for satellite data used in climate and air quality services. Such a framework should deliver the historically linked long-term data sets that users need, in a format that they can readily use. QA4ECV has approached more than 150 users and suppliers of satellite data to collect their needs and expectations. The project will use their response as a guideline for developing user-friendly tools to obtain information on the completeness, accuracy, and fitness-for-purpose of the satellite datasets. QA4ECV collaborates with 4 joint FP7 Space projects in reaching out to scientists, policy makers, and other end-users of satellite data to improve understanding of the special challenges -and also opportunities- of working with satellite data for climate and air quality purposes. As a demonstration of its capacity, QA4ECV will generate multi-decadal climate data records for 3 atmospheric ECV precursors (nitrogen dioxide, formaldehyde, and carbon monoxide) and 3 land ECVs (albedo, leaf area index and absorbed photosynthetically active

  14. Climate Variability and Migration: Evidence from Tanzania

    OpenAIRE

    Mathilde MAUREL; Zaneta KUBIK

    2014-01-01

    We analyze whether Tanzanian households engage in internal migration as a response to weather-related shocks. Our findings confirm that climate shocks lead to a higher probability of migration by reducing agricultural yields, which in turn induces households to send their members away in order to spatially diversify their income. This effect is, however, low, since a 1% reduction in agricultural income induced by weather shock increases the probability of migration by 3% for an average househ...

  15. Modeling key processes causing climate change and variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henriksson, S.

    2013-09-01

    Greenhouse gas warming, internal climate variability and aerosol climate effects are studied and the importance to understand these key processes and being able to separate their influence on the climate is discussed. Aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM and the COSMOS millennium model consisting of atmospheric, ocean and carbon cycle and land-use models are applied and results compared to measurements. Topics at focus are climate sensitivity, quasiperiodic variability with a period of 50-80 years and variability at other timescales, climate effects due to aerosols over India and climate effects of northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The main findings of this work are (1) pointing out the remaining challenges in reducing climate sensitivity uncertainty from observational evidence, (2) estimates for the amplitude of a 50-80 year quasiperiodic oscillation in global mean temperature ranging from 0.03 K to 0.17 K and for its phase progression as well as the synchronising effect of external forcing, (3) identifying a power law shape S(f) {proportional_to} f-{alpha} for the spectrum of global mean temperature with {alpha} {approx} 0.8 between multidecadal and El Nino timescales with a smaller exponent in modelled climate without external forcing, (4) separating aerosol properties and climate effects in India by season and location (5) the more efficient dispersion of secondary sulfate aerosols than primary carbonaceous aerosols in the simulations, (6) an increase in monsoon rainfall in northern India due to aerosol light absorption and a probably larger decrease due to aerosol dimming effects and (7) an estimate of mean maximum cooling of 0.19 K due to larger northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The results could be applied or useful in better isolating the human-caused climate change signal, in studying the processes further and in more detail, in decadal climate prediction, in model evaluation and in emission policy

  16. Synchronicity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon variability and Northern Hemisphere climate change since the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinozaki, T.; Uchida, M.; Minoura, K.; Kondo, M.; Rella, S. F.; Shibata, Y.

    2011-06-01

    Understanding of the mechanism of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is required for the prediction of climate change in East Asia in a scenario of modern global warming. In this study, we present high-resolution climate records from peat sediments in Northeast Japan to reconstruct the EASM variability based on peat bulk cellulose δ13C since the last deglaciation. We used a 8.8 m long peat sediment core collected from the Tashiro Bog, Northeast Japan. Based on 42 14C measurements, the core bottom reaches ~15.5 ka. δ13C, accumulation rate and accumulation flux time-series correlate well to Greenland ice core δ18O variability, suggesting that the climate record in Northeast Japan is linked to global climate changes. The δ13C record at Tashiro Bog and other paleo-EASM records at Northeast and Southern China consistently demonstrate that hydrological environments were spatially different in mid-high and mid-low latitude regions over the last 15.5 kyr. During global cooling (warming) periods, mid-high and mid-low latitude regions were characterized by wet (dry) and dry (wet) environments, respectively. We suggest that these climatic patterns are related to the migration of the EASM-related rain belt during global climate changes, as a consequence of variations in intensity and location of both the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (STH). The location of the rain belt largely influences the East Asian hydrological environment. Our δ13C time-series are characterized by a 1230 yr throughout the Holocene and a 680 yr periodicity during the early Holocene. The 1230 yr periodicity is in agreement with North Atlantic ice-rafted debris (IRD) events, suggesting a teleconnection between the Northeast Japan and the North Atlantic during the Holocene. In addition, it is the first evidence that the Bond events were recorded in terrestrial sediment in Japan. On the other hand, the 680 yr periodicity between 10.0 and 8.0 kyr is

  17. Women's role in adapting to climate change and variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvajal-Escobar, Y.; Quintero-Angel, M.; García-Vargas, M.

    2008-04-01

    Given that women are engaged in more climate-related change activities than what is recognized and valued in the community, this article highlights their important role in the adaptation and search for safer communities, which leads them to understand better the causes and consequences of changes in climatic conditions. It is concluded that women have important knowledge and skills for orienting the adaptation processes, a product of their roles in society (productive, reproductive and community); and the importance of gender equity in these processes is recognized. The relationship among climate change, climate variability and the accomplishment of the Millennium Development Goals is considered.

  18. Synchronous mid-Holocene climate deteriorations in circum-Mediterranean and their links with ancient civilizations: first speloethem and archeological evidences from N-Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Jiaoyang; Kherbouche, Farid; Genty, Dominique; Cheng, Hai; Dewilde, Fabien; Blamart, Dominique

    2015-04-01

    Over the last decades, ancient civilizations during the Holocene were heavily studied at many places around the Mediterranean region such as Libya and Italy, and changes in the past social activities were widely assumed to be linked to regional climate variability. However, in many cases the climatic records were apart from the archaeological sites and the archaeological chronologies were not well constrained, which makes these links uncertain. Here we present a 230Th-dated decadal resolution climate record for 6034-3185yr BP based on the δ18O and δ13C analyses of two overlapping stalagmites from Gueldaman GLD1 Cave (36°26'N, 4°34'E, 507 m asl), N-Algeria. Recent archaeological work in this cave brought first information about the Neolithisation process since ca 7000yr cal BP in the region where little was known before. Together with new charcoal 14C dates from the digging sections we test the link between past climate change and human activities in the cave. GLD1 stalagmite records reveal a dry event at ca 5700-5500yr BP and a drying trend toward extreme aridity, since ca 4700yr BP, peaking at ca 4200yr BP. These climatic deteriorations in N-Algeria, within dating errors, are synchronous with dry phases observed on speleothem records from central (Corchia Cave and Renella Cave, Italy) and eastern (Soreq Cave, Israel) Mediterranean. Specifically, climatic condition was harsher at ca 4200yr BP than at ca 5700-5500yr BP in central and W-Mediterranean; while it was harsher at ca 5700-5500yr BP in E-Mediterranean. The new 14C dates relatively well anchor the age of sediment layers with the richest anthropogenic deposits (i.e. charcoal, bone and Neolithic pottery) to ca 4900-4400yr cal BP, coinciding with the wettest period inferred from the stalagmite records. Shortly following this period, archaeological remains were becoming very rare in the sediments, which might be the consequence of establishing extremely arid phase at ca 4200yr BP. This suggests a possible

  19. Clinal variation of some mammals during the Holocene in Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purdue, James R.

    1980-03-01

    Eastern cottontail ( Sylvilagus floridanus), fox squirrel ( Sciurus niger), and gray squirrel ( Sciurus carolinensis) were examined for clinal variation during the Holocene. Modern samples of all three species displayed strong east-west patterns along the western edge of the eastern deciduous forest: S. floridanus and S. niger decrease and S. carolinensis increases in size. Archeological samples of S. carolinensis from Rodgers Shelter (23BE125), Benton County, Missouri, and Graham Cave (23MT2), Montgomery County, Missouri, indicated an increase in size from early to middle Holocene. Sylvilagus floridanus from Rodgers Shelter decreased in size from early to middle Holocene and then increased during the late Holocene to modern proportions. A literature survey reveals that clinal variation is a common phenomenon among modern homeotherms. In introduced species, clinal variation has developed after relatively few generations, indicating rapid adaptations to environmental conditions; often winter climatic variables are implicated. Morphological variation in the study species during the Holocene is interpreted as a response to changing climates. Studies of morphological clines may lead to another valuable data source for reconstructing past ecologies.

  20. Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magrin, G. O.; Gay Garcia, C.; Cruz Choque, D.; Gimenez-Sal, J. C.; Moreno, A. R.; Nagy, G. J.; Nobre, C.; Villamizar, A.

    2007-05-01

    Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases

  1. Temporal relationship between climate variability, Prosopis juliflora ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data derived from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m satellite imageries for 2000 to 2014 were used to determine the temporal dynamics of P. juliflora invasion in the study area. Both temperature and rainfall trends showed marked variability over ...

  2. South America Monsoon variability on millennial to multi-centennial time scale during the Holocene in central eastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strikis, N. M.; Cruz, F. W.; Cheng, H.; Karmann, I.; Vuille, M.; Edwards, R.; Wang, X.; Paula, M. S.; Novello, V. F.; Auler, A.

    2011-12-01

    A paleoprecipitation reconstruction based on high resolution and well-dated speleothem oxygen isotope records shows that the monsoon precipitation over central eastern Brazil underwent to strong variations on millennial to multi-centennial time-scales during the Holocene. This new record indicates that abrupt events of increase in monsoon precipitation are correlated to Bond events 6, 5 and 4 and also with 8.2 ky event during the early and mid-Holocene, with a mean amplitude of 1.5 % (PDB). The pacing and structure of such events are general consistent with variations in solar activity suggested by atmospheric Δ14 C records. In the late-Holocene, abrupt events of increase in monsoon precipitation peaking at 3.2, 2.7 and 2.3 ky B.P. are approximately synchronous with periods of low solar minima. In this regard, the most prominent event occurred during the late Holocene occurred at ~2.7 ky B.P. In addition, these positive anomalies of the precipitation recorded in central eastern Brazil are also in good agreement with variations in Titicaca lake level. The good correspondence between the speleothem and marine records imply that the variations in the north Atlantic sea surface temperature is the main forcing for abrupt millennial to multi-centennial precipitations variation within the region under influence of South American Monsoon.

  3. Sea ice and wind variability during the Holocene in East Antarctica: Insight on middle high latitude coupling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Denis, D.; Crosta, X.; Barbera, L.; Masse, G.; Renssen, H.; Ther, O.; Giraudeau, J.

    2010-01-01

    Micropaleontological and biomarker data from two high-accumulation marine sites from the Coastal and Continental Shelf Zone (CCSZ) off East Antarctica (Adélie Land at ∼140°E and eastern Prydz Bay at ∼77°E) are used to reconstruct Holocene changes in sea ice and wind stress at the basin-wide scale.

  4. Data Requirements for Developing Adaptations to Climate Variability and Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basher, Reid E.

    1999-01-01

    An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data. 12 refs

  5. Comment on "Donders, T.H. 2014. Middle Holocene humidity increase in Florida: climate or sea-level? Quaternary Science Reviews 103:170-174."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Paul H.; Hansen, Barbara CS; Donovan, Joseph J.; Givnish, Thomas J.; Stricker, Craig A.; Volin, John C.

    2015-01-01

    Donders (2014) has recently proposed that the climate of Florida became progressively wetter over the past 5000 years in response to a marked strengthening of the El Niño regime. This reconstruction is largely based on a re-analysis of pollen records from regions north of Lake Okeechobee (Fig. 1) using a new set of pollen transfer functions. Donders concluded that a latitudinal gradient in precipitation prevailed across Florida since the mid Holocene, but the overall trend was toward progressively wetter conditions from 5000 cal BP to the present.

  6. Thermal barriers constrain microbial elevational range size via climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianjun; Soininen, Janne

    2017-08-01

    Range size is invariably limited and understanding range size variation is an important objective in ecology. However, microbial range size across geographical gradients remains understudied, especially on mountainsides. Here, the patterns of range size of stream microbes (i.e., bacteria and diatoms) and macroorganisms (i.e., macroinvertebrates) along elevational gradients in Asia and Europe were examined. In bacteria, elevational range size showed non-significant phylogenetic signals. In all taxa, there was a positive relationship between niche breadth and species elevational range size, driven by local environmental and climatic variables. No taxa followed the elevational Rapoport's rule. Climate variability explained the most variation in microbial mean elevational range size, whereas local environmental variables were more important for macroinvertebrates. Seasonal and annual climate variation showed negative effects, while daily climate variation had positive effects on community mean elevational range size for all taxa. The negative correlation between range size and species richness suggests that understanding the drivers of range is key for revealing the processes underlying diversity. The results advance the understanding of microbial species thermal barriers by revealing the importance of seasonal and diurnal climate variation, and highlight that aquatic and terrestrial biota may differ in their response to short- and long-term climate variability. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

    2016-12-01

    Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

  8. Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Peterson, David L.; Hessl, Amy E.

    2003-01-01

    An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change

  9. Terrestrial climate variability and seasonality changes in the Mediterranean region between 15 000 and 4000 years BP deduced from marine pollen records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Dormoy

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Pollen-based climate reconstructions were performed on two high-resolution pollen marines cores from the Alboran and Aegean Seas in order to unravel the climatic variability in the coastal settings of the Mediterranean region between 15 000 and 4000 years BP (the Lateglacial, and early to mid-Holocene. The quantitative climate reconstructions for the Alboran and Aegean Sea records focus mainly on the reconstruction of the seasonality changes (temperatures and precipitation, a crucial parameter in the Mediterranean region. This study is based on a multi-method approach comprising 3 methods: the Modern Analogues Technique (MAT, the recent Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling/Generalized Additive Model method (NMDS/GAM and Partial Least Squares regression (PLS. The climate signal inferred from this comparative approach confirms that cold and dry conditions prevailed in the Mediterranean region during the Oldest and Younger Dryas periods, while temperate conditions prevailed during the Bølling/Allerød and the Holocene. Our records suggest a West/East gradient of decreasing precipitation across the Mediterranean region during the cooler Late-glacial and early Holocene periods, similar to present-day conditions. Winter precipitation was highest during warm intervals and lowest during cooling phases. Several short-lived cool intervals (i.e. Older Dryas, another oscillation after this one (GI-1c2, Gerzensee/Preboreal Oscillations, 8.2 ka event, Bond events connected to the North Atlantic climate system are documented in the Alboran and Aegean Sea records indicating that the climate oscillations associated with the successive steps of the deglaciation in the North Atlantic area occurred in both the western and eastern Mediterranean regions. This observation confirms the presence of strong climatic linkages between the North Atlantic and Mediterranean regions.

  10. THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABLES AND CROP AREA ON MAIZE YIELD AND VARIABILITY IN GHANA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry De-Graft Acquah

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change tends to have negative effects on crop yield through its influence on crop production. Understanding the relationship between climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of crop yield will facilitate development of appropriate policies to cope with climate change. This paper examines the effects of climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of maize yield in Ghana. The Just and Pope stochastic production function using the Cobb-Douglas functional form was employed. The results show that average maize yield is positively related to crop area and negatively related to rainfall and temperature. Furthermore, increase in crop area and temperature will enlarge maize yield variability while rainfall increase will decrease the variability in maize yield.

  11. Conveying the Science of Climate Change: Explaining Natural Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanton, J.

    2011-12-01

    One of the main problems in climate change education is reconciling the role of humans and natural variability. The climate is always changing, so how can humans have a role in causing change? How do we reconcile and differentiate the anthropogenic effect from natural variability? This talk will offer several approaches that have been successful for the author. First, the context of climate change during the Pleistocene must be addressed. Second, is the role of the industrial revolution in significantly altering Pleistocene cycles, and introduction of the concept of the Anthropocene. Finally the positive feedbacks between climatic nudging due to increased insolation and greenhouse gas forcing can be likened to a rock rolling down a hill, without a leading cause. This approach has proven successful in presentations to undergraduates to state agencies.

  12. Chaos, dynamical structure and climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, H.B. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States). Dept. of Applied Science

    1995-09-01

    Deterministic chaos in dynamical systems offers a new paradigm for understanding irregular fluctuations. Techniques for identifying deterministic chaos from observed data, without recourse to mathematical models, are being developed. Powerful methods exist for reconstructing multidimensional phase space from an observed time series of a single scalar variable; these methods are invaluable when only a single scalar record of the dynamics is available. However, in some applications multiple concurrent time series may be available for consideration as phase space coordinates. Here the authors propose some basic analytical tools for such multichannel time series data, and illustrate them by applications to a simple synthetic model of chaos, to a low-order model of atmospheric circulation, and to two high-resolution paleoclimate proxy data series. The atmospheric circulation model, originally proposed by Lorenz, has 27 principal unknowns; they establish that the chaotic attractor can be embedded in a subspace of eight dimensions by exhibiting a specific subset of eight unknowns which pass multichannel tests for false nearest neighbors. They also show that one of the principal unknowns in the 27-variable model--the global mean sea surface temperature--is of no discernible usefulness in making short-term forecasts.

  13. Natural climate variability in a coupled model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zebiak, S.E.; Cane, M.A.

    1990-01-01

    Multi-century simulations with a simplified coupled ocean-atmosphere model are described. These simulations reveal an impressive range of variability on decadal and longer time scales, in addition to the dominant interannual el Nino/Southern Oscillation signal that the model originally was designed to simulate. Based on a very large sample of century-long simulations, it is nonetheless possible to identify distinct model parameter sensitivities that are described here in terms of selected indices. Preliminary experiments motivated by general circulation model results for increasing greenhouse gases suggest a definite sensitivity to model global warming. While these results are not definitive, they strongly suggest that coupled air-sea dynamics figure prominently in global change and must be included in models for reliable predictions

  14. Human activity and climate variability project: annual report 2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harle, K.J.; Heijnis, H.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Sharmeen, S.; Zahorowski, W.

    2002-01-01

    Knowledge of the state of the Australian environment, including natural climate variability, prior to colonial settlement is vital if we are to define and understand the impact of over two hundred years of post-industrial human activity on our landscape. ANSTO, in conjunction with university partners, is leading a major research effort to provide natural archives of human activity and climate variability over the last 500 years in Australia, utilising a variety of techniques, including lead-210 and radiocarbon dating and analyses of proxy indicators (such as microfossils) as well as direct evidence (such as trace elements) of human activity and climate variability. The other major project objectives were to contribute to the understanding of the impact of human induced and natural aerosols in the East Asian region on climate through analysis and sourcing of fine particles and characterisation of air samples using radon concentrations and to contribute to the improvement of land surface parameterisation schemes and investigate the potential to use stable isotopes to improve global climate models and thus improve our understanding of future climate

  15. Modeling sensitivity study of the possible impact of snow and glaciers developing over Tibetan Plateau on Holocene African-Asian summer monsoon climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jin

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of various scenarios of a gradual snow and glaciers developing over the Tibetan Plateau on climate change in Afro-Asian monsoon region and other regions during the Holocene (9 kyr BP–0 kyr BP are studied by using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2. The simulations show that the imposed snow and glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau in the mid-Holocene induce global summer temperature decreases over most of Eurasia but in the Southern Asia temperature response is opposite. With the imposed snow and glaciers, summer precipitation decreases strongly in North Africa and South Asia as well as northeastern China, while it increases in Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean. For the whole period of Holocene (9 kyr BP–0 kyr BP, the response of vegetation cover to the imposed snow and glaciers cover over the Tibetan Plateau is not synchronous in South Asia and in North Africa, showing an earlier and a more rapid decrease in vegetation cover in North Africa from 9 kyr BP to 6 kyr BP while it has only minor influence on that in South Asia until 5 kyr BP. The precipitation decreases rapidly in North Africa and South Asia while it decreases slowly or unchanged during 6 kyr BP to 0 kyr BP with imposed snow and glacier cover over the Tibetan Plateau. The different scenarios of snow and glacier developing over the Tibetan Plateau would result in differences in variation of temperature, precipitation and vegetation cover in North Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia. The model results suggest that the development of snow and ice cover over Tibetan Plateau represents an additional important climate feedback, which amplify orbital forcing and produces a significant synergy with the positive vegetation feedback.

  16. 16,000 Years of Tropical Eastern Ocean Climate Variability Recorded in a Speleothem From Sumatra, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurtzel, J. B.; Abram, N.; Hantoro, W. S.; Rifai, H.; Hellstrom, J. C.; Heslop, D.; Troitzsch, U.; Eggins, S.

    2015-12-01

    Holocene climate variability in the Indo-Pacific has largely been inferred from sediment cores primarily from the central and eastern Warm Pool region. A limited number of speleothem oxygen-isotope records have provided decadally-resolved time-series of past rainfall variability over the central Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region, however no records currently exist for the Indian Ocean sector of the IPWP. Here we present the first continuous, high-resolution (~15year) speleothem record from the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, collected from central western Sumatra, Indonesia. Petrographic and geochemical analysis reveals that the sample is primarily composed of aragonite but is punctuated by intervals of primary calcite growth. In addition to Raman spectroscopy, trace element analysis by laser ablation ICP-MS reveals strongly antiphased behaviour between magnesium and strontium, attributed to the strong preference of those elements for the calcite and aragonite lattices, respectively. This relationship is utilized to develop a quantitative correction for the stable isotope fractionation offset between the two calcium carbonate polymorphs identified in the speleothem. The corrected oxygen isotope record shows a rapid transition from drier conditions during the Younger Dryas (YD) into a wetter Holocene, similar in timing and pattern to that recorded in Dongge Cave, China. This is strikingly different from other IPWP speleothem records, which show no YD or a wetter YD, suggesting that different mechanisms may be controlling rainfall amount in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. These disparate responses are further explored through proxy-model comparison.

  17. Late holocene ice core records of climate and environment from the Tropical Andes, Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available DONNÉES CLIMATIQUES ET ENVIRONNEMENTALES DÉDUITES DES CAROTTES DE GLACE DES ANDES TROPICALES (PÉROU À L’HOLOCÈNE RÉCENT. On compare l’histoire du climat et de l’environnement reconstituée à partir des carottes extraites de la calotte de glace de Quelccaya (13º56’S, 70º50’O, 5 670 m et de la “Garganta” du Huascarán (9°06’S, 77°36’O, 6 048 m s.n.m. Les paramètres analysés sont le rapport isotopique de l’oxygène ( 18O considéré comme un indicateur des températures, les poussières non solubles et (pour le Huascarán seulement la concentration en nitrates (NO3-, qui est un indicateur des fluctuations de la végétation dans la forêt amazonienne. Les profils du  18O et du NO3- au Huascarán pour les derniers 3 000 ans montrent qu’il y a eu une baisse générale des températures accompagnée par une diminution de l’activité biologique dans le bassin amazonien, avec des valeurs minimales atteintes pendant le Petit Age de Glace, de 200 à 500 ans BP. Il y a eu après une augmentation rapide du  18O, qui a atteint les valeurs d’il y a 3 000 ans BP. Ce réchauffement rapide a dominé les deux derniers siècles sur les deux sites. Les niveaux de NO3- au Huascarán ont aussi augmenté pendant cette période, bien que moins rapidement. L’évidence d’un léger enrichissement isotopique (réchauffement existe entre 1 150 y 900 ans BP, qui pourrait être mis en relation avec “l’Optimum Médiéval”. Le niveau des poussières, constant depuis 3 000 ans, a été interrompu par un événement de fortes concentrations de poussières entre 2 000 y 1 800 ans BP (0-200 A.D. centré sur les années 1 900 BP (100 A.D.. Des pics de moindre importance sont observés de 1 400 à 1 600 ans BP (400 a 600 A.D. et entre 1300 et 1030 BP (entre 700 et 960 A.D.. L’analyse des poussières associées à cet épisode révèle un matériau déposé par les vents de même composition que celui qui affleure en Cordill

  18. Quaternary climatic variability in the Tarat aquifer (Arlit, Niger)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodo, A.; Zuppi, G.M.

    1999-01-01

    The concentration of major elements and environmental isotopes in the Carboniferous (Guezouman and Tarat), Triassic (Teloua) and Quaternary aquifers allows to describe the ground-water flow and to define the upward leakage. 18 O and 2 H in water samples from Guezouman and some Tarat aquifers fall on a regressive line with the equation, δ 2 H (8.01±0.50) δ 18 O + (3.85±3.56), similar to that found for old groundwater in the northern and southern Sahara. The isotopic difference between the Arlit area and the easterly Djado basin groundwater results from the combined effects of continentality and altitude on meteoric waters. The carbon 14 ages, the palaeo-temperatures evaluated from oxygen 18 and nitrate contents in the Tarat aquifer show climatic variations consisting of two humid periods at 10 000 and 30 000 years separated by a warmer period at 25 000. The mean temperatures of the palaeo-recharge, estimated using oxygen 18 data, are 18 deg C during the Holocene, 20 deg C at 25 000 years and 16 deg C at 30 000 years. Water infiltrating during the warming period shows 79 mg L -1 nitrates. High nitrates could be due to an important meteorological event which entrained and stored organic matter from the surface vegetation and soil by infiltration. (authors)

  19. Reconstruction of Last Glacial to early Holocene monsoon variability from relict lake sediments of the Higher Central Himalaya, Uttrakhand, India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juyal, N.; Pant, R.K.; Basavaiah, N.

    2009-01-01

    .5 ka and after14.5–13 ka. The Last Glacial phase ended with the deposition of outwash gravel dated at 11 ka indicating glacial retreat and the onset of Holocene condition. Additionally, centennial scale fluctuations between 16.5 ka and 12.7 ka in the magnetic and geochemical data are seen. A close...... instability in higher northern latitudes. However, centennial scale abrupt changes are attributed to the result of albedo changes on the Himalaya and Tibetan plateau....

  20. Indian summer monsoon variability during the Holocene as recorded in sediments of the Arabian Sea: Timing and implications

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Thamban, M.; Kawahata, H.; Rao, V.P.

    ., 2005). Recently a 11,000 yr reconstruction of sunspots using tree ring ∆ 14 C data revealed exceptional changes in sunspot activity within the Holocene (Solanki et al., 2004). Since sun is the principal source of energy, changes in solar energy output... seem to be stimulated by the sun, suggest- ing the importance of small changes in solar activity lead- ing to perceptible changes in monsoon conditions. Acknowledgements We thank the Directors of National Centre for Ant- arctic and Ocean Research (NCAOR...

  1. Climate Variability and Phytoplankton in the Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousseaux, Cecile

    2012-01-01

    The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (pphytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Nina events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.

  2. Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Mairesse; H. Goosse; P. Mathiot; H. Wanner; S. Dubinkina (Svetlana)

    2013-01-01

    htmlabstractThe mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP; thousand years before present) is a key period to study the consistency between model results and proxy-based reconstruction data as it corresponds to a standard test for models and a reasonable number of proxy-based records is available. Taking advantage of

  3. Modeling the sensitivity of sediment and water runoff dynamics to Holocene climate and land use changes at the catchment scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Notebaert, B.; Verstraeten, G.; Ward, P.J.; Renssen, H.; Van Rompaey, A.

    2011-01-01

    An increasing number of studies have indicated that soil erosion, sediment redistribution and water discharge during the Holocene have varied greatly under influence of environmental changes. In this paper we have used a modeling approach to study the driving forces for soil erosion and sediment

  4. The impact of early Holocene Arctic Shelf flooding on climate in an atmosphere–ocean–sea–ice model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blaschek, M.; Renssen, H.

    2013-01-01

    Glacial terminations are characterized by a strong rise in sea level related to melting ice sheets. This rise in sea level is not uniform all over the world, because regional effects (uplift and subsidence of coastal zones) are superimposed on global trends. During the early Holocene the Siberian

  5. Reconstructing Holocene (sub)tropical climate and cyclone variability using geochemical proxies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Soelen, E.E.

    2012-01-01

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for a warming trend that cannot easily be reversed. This warming trend is expected to have a large impact on global weather patterns and local environmental conditions, for example by changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise and

  6. On the differences between Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene climates in southern South America simulated by PMIP3 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Ana Laura; Silvestri, Gabriel E.; Tonello, Marcela S.

    2018-04-01

    Differences between climate conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Mid-Holocene (MH) in southern South America inferred from the state-of-the-art PMIP3 paleoclimatic simulations are described for the first time in this paper. The aim is to expose characteristics of past climate changes occurred without human influence. In this context, numerical simulations are an indispensable tool for inferring changes in near-surface air temperature and precipitation in regions where proxy information is scarce or absent. The analyzed PMIP3 models describe MH temperatures significantly warmer than those of LGM with magnitudes of change depending on the season and the specific geographic region. In addition, models indicate that seasonal mean precipitation during MH increased with respect to LGM values in wide southern continental areas to the east of the Andes Cordillera whereas seasonal precipitation developed in areas to the west of Patagonian Andes reduced from LGM to MH.

  7. Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Clark; Wise, Erika

    2016-01-01

    Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9,812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe. PMID:27092012

  8. Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Clark; Wise, Erika

    2016-04-01

    Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9,812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe.

  9. Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments

  10. Tropical Pacific climate variability over the last 6000 years as recorded in Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Diane M.; Conroy, Jessica L.; Collins, Aaron; Hlohowskyj, Stephan R.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Riedinger-Whitmore, Melanie; Cole, Julia E.; Bush, Mark B.; Whitney, H.; Corley, Timothy L.; Kannan, Miriam Steinitz

    2017-08-01

    Finely laminated sediments within Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos, provide a record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the Holocene. Despite the importance of this sediment record, hypotheses for how climate variability is preserved in the lake sediments have not been tested. Here we present results of long-term monitoring of the local climate and limnology and a revised interpretation of the sediment record. Brown-green, organic-rich, siliciclastic laminae reflect warm, wet conditions typical of El Niño events, whereas carbonate and gypsum precipitate during cool, dry La Niña events and persistent dry periods, respectively. Applying this new interpretation, we find that ENSO events of both phases were generally less frequent during the mid-Holocene ( 6100-4000 calendar years B.P.) relative to the last 1500 calendar years. Abundant carbonate laminations between 3500 and 3000 calendar years B.P. imply that conditions in the Galápagos region were cool and dry during this period when the tropical Pacific E-W sea surface temperature (SST) gradient likely strengthened. The frequency of El Niño and La Niña events then intensified dramatically around 1750-2000 calendar years B.P., consistent with a weaker SST gradient and an increased frequency of ENSO events in other regional records. This strong interannual variability persisted until 700 calendar years B.P., when ENSO-related variability at the lake decreased as the SST gradient strengthened. Persistent, dry conditions then dominated between 300 and 50 calendar years B.P. (A.D. 1650-1900, ± 100 years), whereas wetter conditions and frequent El Niño events dominated in the most recent century.

  11. Nature Relation Between Climatic Variables and Cotton Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zakaria M. Sawan

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the effect of climatic variables on flower and boll production and retention in cotton (Gossypium barbadense. Also, this study investigated the relationship between climatic factors and production of flowers and bolls obtained during the development periods of the flowering and boll stage, and to determine the most representative period corresponding to the overall crop pattern. Evaporation, sunshine duration, relative humidity, surface soil temperature at 1800 h, and maximum air temperature, are the important climatic factors that significantly affect flower and boll production. The least important variables were found to be surface soil temperature at 0600 h and minimum temperature. There was a negative correlation between flower and boll production and either evaporation or sunshine duration, while that correlation with minimum relative humidity was positive. Higher minimum relative humidity, short period of sunshine duration, and low temperatures enhanced flower and boll formation.

  12. Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef

    2008-01-01

    susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded...... by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices...... and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions...

  13. Climate variability and vulnerability to poverty in Nicaragua

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Herrera (Carlos); R. Ruben (Ruerd); A.G. Dijkstra (Geske)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractThis study considers the effect of climate variability on vulnerability to poverty in Nicaragua. It discusses how such vulnerability could be measured and which heterogeneous effects can be expected. A multilevel empirical framework is applied, linking per capita consumption

  14. Forests: the potential consequences of climate variability and change

    Science.gov (United States)

    USDA Forest Service

    2001-01-01

    This pamphlet reports the recent scientific assessment that analyzed how future climate variablity and change may affect forests in the United States. The assessment, sponsored by the USDA Forest Service, and supported, in part, by the U.S Department of Energy, and the National Atmospheric and Space Administration, describes the suite of potential impacts on forests....

  15. Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on agriculture in semi arid areas of Tanzania: The case of Manyoni District in Singida Region, Tanzania. ... The changes have affected crops and livestock in a number of ways resulting in reduced productivity. Empirical analysis of rainfall suggest decreasing ...

  16. Long-term trends in geomagnetic and climatic variability

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bucha, Václav

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 27, 6/7 (2002), s. 427-731 ISSN 1474-7065 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012806 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : geomagnetic forcing * climatic variability * global warming Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography

  17. Understanding Farmers' Response to Climate Variability in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, farmers 'response to climate variability was examined. Primary and secondary data were used. A multi-stage sampling procedure was adopted in the collection of the primary data using structured questionnaires. Four vegetation zones out of seven where farming is mainly carried out were selected for the study.

  18. Climate variability and sustainable food production: Insights from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    They are integrated and balance the ... implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production; that help maintain ecosystems ... other forms of life, the manner in which human beings respond to climate variability is critical not ..... work for longer hours and at the same time its effect on their health.

  19. Perception of Climate Variability on Agriculture and Food Security by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    47% of the respondents perceived climatic variability as delayed in rainfall, 22% perceived it as high temperature, 6% says it is flood, 3% sees it as unusual rainfall while 22% perceived it as undefined season. Although both gender do not have the same adaptive capacity, women (100%) are more vulnerable to the impact ...

  20. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S

    2018-01-17

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO 2 . Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the 'likely' range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC 'likely' range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  1. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

    2018-01-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  2. Holocene River Dynamics, Climate Change and Floodwater Farming in the Watersheds of the Pamir and Tien Shan Mountains of Inner Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macklin, M. G.; Panyushkina, I. P.; Toonen, W. H. J.

    2014-12-01

    The Ili, Syr Dayra and Amu Dayra rivers of Inner Asia are emerging as critical areas for the development of irrigation-based agriculture in the ancient world. Following research by Russian archaeologists in the 1970s it is evident that these watersheds had flourishing riverine civilizations comparable to those in Mesopotamia and the Indus Valley. But unlike these areas where the relationship between Holocene river dynamics, climate change and floodwater farming is increasingly underpinned by radiometric dating, the alluvial archaeology of Inner Asia is significantly under researched. To address this, a major multi-disciplinary research program was begun in 2011 centred on the Talgar catchment, a south-bank tributary of the Ili river, southeast Kazakhstan. Building on archaeological excavations and surveys conducted over the past 20 years, we have undertaken one of the most detailed investigations of Holocene people-river environment interactions in Inner Asia. River development has been reconstructed over the last 20,000 years and human settlement histories from the Eneolithic to the Medieval period documented. Periods of Holocene river aggradation and high water levels in Lake Balkhash and Aral Sea correspond with cooler and wetter neoglacial episodes while river entrenchment and floodplain soil development are associated with warmer and drier conditions. Floodwater farming in the Talgar river reached its acme in the late Iron Age (400-200 cal. BC) with more than 60 settlement sites and 550 burial mounds. This corresponds to a period of reduced flood flows, river stability and glacier retreat in the Tien Shan headwaters. A new hydroclimatic-based model for the spatial and temporal dynamics of floodwater farming in the Ili, Syr Dayra and Amu Dayra watersheds is proposed, which explains the large scale expansion (down-river) and contraction (up-river) of settlements since the first use of irrigation in the Neolithic through to the late Medieval period.

  3. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  4. Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knuth, Kevin H.; Golera, Anthony; Curry, Charles T.; Huyser, Karen A.; Kevin R. Wheeler; Rossow, William B.

    2005-01-01

    The primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.

  5. The response of the southwest Western Australian wave climate to Indian Ocean climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hetzel, Yasha; Wijeratne, E. M. S.

    2018-03-01

    Knowledge of regional wave climates is critical for coastal planning, management, and protection. In order to develop a regional wave climate, it is important to understand the atmospheric systems responsible for wave generation. This study examines the variability of the southwest Western Australian (SWWA) shelf and nearshore wind wave climate and its relationship to southern hemisphere climate variability represented by various atmospheric indices: the southern oscillation index (SOI), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI), the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD), the latitudinal position of the subtropical high-pressure ridge (STRP), and the corresponding intensity of the subtropical ridge (STRI). A 21-year wave hindcast (1994-2014) of the SWWA continental shelf was created using the third generation wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), to analyse the seasonal and inter-annual wave climate variability and its relationship to the atmospheric regime. Strong relationships between wave heights and the STRP and the STRI, a moderate correlation between the wave climate and the SAM, and no significant correlation between SOI, DMI, and IOSD and the wave climate were found. Strong spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variability, as well as seasonal longer-term trends in the mean wave climate were studied and linked to the latitudinal changes in the subtropical high-pressure ridge and the Southern Ocean storm belt. As the Southern Ocean storm belt and the subtropical high-pressure ridge shifted southward (northward) wave heights on the SWWA shelf region decreased (increased). The wave height anomalies appear to be driven by the same atmospheric conditions that influence rainfall variability in SWWA.

  6. Assessing the Effects of Climate on Global Fluvial Discharge Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansford, M. R.; Plink-Bjorklund, P.

    2017-12-01

    Plink-Bjorklund (2015) established the link between precipitation seasonality and river discharge variability in the monsoon domain and subtropical rivers (see also Leier et al, 2005; Fielding et al., 2009), resulting in distinct morphodynamic processes and a sedimentary record distinct from perennial precipitation zone in tropical rainforest zone and mid latitudes. This study further develops our understanding of discharge variability using a modern global river database created with data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The database consists of daily discharge for 595 river stations and examines them using a series of discharge variability indexes (DVI) on different temporal scales to examine how discharge variability occurs in river systems around the globe. These indexes examine discharge of individual days and monthly averages that allows for comparison of river systems against each other, regardless of size of the river. Comparing river discharge patterns in seven climate zones (arid, cold, humid subtropics, monsoonal, polar, rainforest, and temperate) based off the Koppen-Geiger climate classifications reveals a first order climatic control on discharge patterns and correspondingly sediment transport. Four groupings of discharge patterns emerge when coming climate zones and DVI: persistent, moderate, seasonal, and erratic. This dataset has incredible predictive power about the nature of discharge in fluvial systems around the world. These seasonal effects on surface water supply affects river morphodynamics and sedimentation on a wide timeframe, ranging from large single events to an inter-annual or even decadal timeframe. The resulting sedimentary deposits lead to differences in fluvial architecture on a range of depositional scales from sedimentary structures and bedforms to channel complex systems. These differences are important to accurately model for several reasons, ranging from stratigraphic and paleoenviromental reconstructions to more

  7. Climate variability and sedimentation of a hydropower reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riedel, M.

    2008-01-01

    As part of the relicensing of a large Hydroelectric Project in the central Appalachians, large scale watershed and reservoir sedimentation models were developed to forecast potential sedimentation scenarios. The GIS based watershed model was spatially explicit and calibrated to long term observed data. Potential socio/economic development scenarios were used to construct future watershed land cover scenarios. Climatic variability and potential change analysis were used to identify future climate regimes and shifts in precipitation and temperature patterns. Permutations of these development and climate changes were forecasted over 50 years and used to develop sediment yield regimes to the project reservoir. Extensive field work and reservoir survey, including current and wave instrumentation, were used to characterize the project watershed, rivers and reservoir hydrodynamics. A fully 3 dimensional hydrodynamic reservoir sedimentation model was developed for the project and calibrated to observed data. Hydrologic and sedimentation results from watershed forecasting provided boundary conditions for reservoir inputs. The calibrated reservoir model was then used to forecast changes in reservoir sedimentation and storage capacity under different future climate scenarios. Results indicated unique zones of advancing sediment deltas and temporary storage areas. Forecasted changes in reservoir bathymetry and sedimentation patterns were also developed for the various climate change scenarios. The warmer and wetter scenario produced sedimentation impacts similar to extensive development under no climate change. The results of these analyses are being used to develop collaborative watershed and soil conservation partnerships to reduce future soil losses and reservoir sedimentation from projected development. (author)

  8. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara

    2014-05-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  9. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara; Lopez, Ana; Huntingford, Chris; Allen, Myles

    2014-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  10. The influence of climate variables on dengue in Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Edna; Coelho, Micheline; Oliver, Leuda; Massad, Eduardo

    2011-12-01

    In this work we correlated dengue cases with climatic variables for the city of Singapore. This was done through a Poisson Regression Model (PRM) that considers dengue cases as the dependent variable and the climatic variables (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity) as independent variables. We also used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to choose the variables that influence in the increase of the number of dengue cases in Singapore, where PC₁ (Principal component 1) is represented by temperature and rainfall and PC₂ (Principal component 2) is represented by relative humidity. We calculated the probability of occurrence of new cases of dengue and the relative risk of occurrence of dengue cases influenced by climatic variable. The months from July to September showed the highest probabilities of the occurrence of new cases of the disease throughout the year. This was based on an analysis of time series of maximum and minimum temperature. An interesting result was that for every 2-10°C of variation of the maximum temperature, there was an average increase of 22.2-184.6% in the number of dengue cases. For the minimum temperature, we observed that for the same variation, there was an average increase of 26.1-230.3% in the number of the dengue cases from April to August. The precipitation and the relative humidity, after analysis of correlation, were discarded in the use of Poisson Regression Model because they did not present good correlation with the dengue cases. Additionally, the relative risk of the occurrence of the cases of the disease under the influence of the variation of temperature was from 1.2-2.8 for maximum temperature and increased from 1.3-3.3 for minimum temperature. Therefore, the variable temperature (maximum and minimum) was the best predictor for the increased number of dengue cases in Singapore.

  11. Response of the everglades ridge and slough landscape to climate variability and 20th-century water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhardt, C.E.; Willard, D.A.

    2009-01-01

    The ridge and slough landscape of the Florida Everglades consists of a mosaic of linear sawgrass ridges separated by deeper-water sloughs with tree islands interspersed throughout the landscape. We used pollen assemblages from transects of sediment cores spanning sawgrass ridges, sloughs, and ridge-slough transition zones to determine the timing of ridge and slough formation and to evaluate the response of components of the ridge and slough landscape to climate variability and 20th-century water management. These pollen data indicate that sawgrass ridges and sloughs have been vegetationally distinct from one another since initiation of the Everglades wetland in mid-Holocene time. Although the position and community composition of sloughs have remained relatively stable throughout their history, modern sawgrass ridges formed on sites that originally were occupied by marshes. Ridge formation and maturation were initiated during intervals of drier climate (the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age) when the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone shifted southward. During these drier intervals, marsh taxa were more common in sloughs, but they quickly receded when precipitation increased. Comparison with regional climate records suggests that slough vegetation is strongly influenced by North Atlantic Oscillation variability, even under 20th-century water management practices. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

  12. The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, Douglas

    2013-04-01

    When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with

  13. Past Holocene detritism quantification and modeling from lacustrine archives in order to deconvoluate human-climate interactions on natural ecosystem over long time-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonneau, Anaëlle; Chapron, Emmanuel; Di Giovanni, Christian; Galop, Didier; Darboux, Frédéric

    2014-05-01

    Water budget is one of the main challenges to paleoclimate researchers in relation to present-day global warming and its consequences for human societies. Associated soil degradation and erosion are thereby becoming a major concern in many parts of the world and more particularly in the Alps. Moreover, humans are considered as geomorphologic agents since few thousand years and it is now recognized that such an impact on natural ecosystem profoundly modified soils properties as well as aquatic ecosystems dynamics over long-term periods. The quantification of such inference over long time-scale is therefore essential to establish new policies to reduce mechanic soil erosion, which is one of the dominant processes in Europe, and anticipate the potential consequences of future climate change on hydric erosion. The mechanical erosion of continental surfaces results from climatic forcing, but can be amplified by the anthropogenic one. We therefore suggest that quantifying and modelling soil erosion processes within comparable Holocene lacustrine archives, allows to estimate and date which and when past human activities have had an impact on soil fluxes over the last 10000 years. Based on the present-day geomorphology of the surrounding watershed and the evolution of the vegetation cover during the Holocene, we develop an interdisciplinary approach combining quantitative organic petrography (i.e. optical characterization and quantification of soil particles within lake sediments) with high-resolution seismic profiling, age-depth models on lacustrine sediment cores and soil erosional susceptibility modeling, in order to estimate the annual volume of soil eroded over the last 10000 years, and in fine to quantify the volume of human-induced soil erosion during the Holocene period. This method is applied to close but contrasted mountainous lacustrine environments from the western French Alps: lakes Blanc Huez and Paladru, sensitive to same climatic influences but where past

  14. A modelling methodology for assessing the impact of climate variability and climatic change on hydroelectric generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz, J.R.; Sailor, D.J.

    1998-01-01

    A new methodology relating basic climatic variables to hydroelectric generation was developed. The methodology can be implemented in large or small basins with any number of hydro plants. The method was applied to the Sacramento, Eel and Russian river basins in northern California where more than 100 hydroelectric plants are located. The final model predicts the availability of hydroelectric generation for the entire basin provided present and near past climate conditions, with about 90% accuracy. The results can be used for water management purposes or for analyzing the effect of climate variability on hydrogeneration availability in the basin. A wide range of results can be obtained depending on the climate change scenario used. (Author)

  15. Pollen record of the mid- to late-Holocene centennial climate change on the East coast of South Korea and its influential factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Bing; Yi, Sangheon; Jia, Hongjuan; Nahm, Wook-Hyun; Kim, Jin-Cheul; Lim, Jaesoo; Lee, Jin-Young; Sha, Longbin; Mao, Limi; Yang, Zhongyong; Nakanishi, Toshimichi; Hong, Wan; Li, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    To understand historical climate change in western Pacific coastal areas, a sediment core (SOJ-2) from the stable sedimentary environment of the Songjiho Lagoon on the east coast of South Korea was obtained for centennial-resolution palynological analysis. The ages of the SOJ-2 core is well controlled by carbon 14 dating with high-resolution accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS), and the results indicated a general warm to cold climate trend from the mid-Holocene to the present, which can be divided into two different stages: a warmer stage between 6842 and 1297 cal yr BP and a colder stage from 1297 cal yr BP to the present, with fluctuations during these stages. The climate was wetter from 6842 to 6227 cal yr BP and 4520 to 1297 cal yr BP and was drier from 6227 to 4520 cal yr BP. The climate changed to cold and dry during the period from 1297-425 cal yr BP. The impact of human activity on the climate began at approximately 1297 cal yr BP and became pronounced starting in 425 cal yr BP. The general cooling trend may represent a response to decreasing solar insolation; however, the relative dryness or wetness of the climate may have been co-determined by westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The climate had a teleconnection with the North Atlantic region, resulting from changes in solar activity. Nevertheless, EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity played an important role in impacting the EASM changes in western Pacific coastal areas.

  16. Potential influence of the late Holocene climate on settled farming versus nomadic cattle herding in the Minusinsk Hollow, south-central Siberia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blyakharchuk, T A; Tchebakova, N M; Parfenova, E I; Soja, A J

    2014-01-01

    Prehistoric and early historic human cultures are known to be closely connected to and dependent on their natural environments. We test the hypothesis that climate change influenced the means of subsistence of ancient tribes and favored agricultural or cattle herding economic strategies. Our study area is the Khakass–Minusinsk Hollow, located in the foothills of the Sayan Mountains, south-central Siberia, which was, for a few millennia, a buffer zone for human migrations across the Great Eurasian Steppe. Three different methods (the Montane BioClimatic Model, MontBCliM; the biomization method; and the actualizm method) are employed to reconstruct vegetation taken from the fossil pollen of sediment cores in two mountain lakes at eleven time slices related to successive human cultures back to the mid-Holocene. MontBCliM model is used inversely to convert site paleo-vegetation into site paleo-climates. Climate-based regression models are developed and applied to reconstructed climates to evaluate possible pasture and grain crops for these time slices. Pollen-based reconstructions of the climate fluctuations uncovered several dry periods with steppe and forest-steppe and wetter periods with forests since 6000 BP. Grasslands increased by an order of magnitude during the dry periods and provided extensive open space suitable for pastoralism; however, both grain and pasture yields decreased during these dry periods. During wetter climates, both grain and pasture yields increased twofold and supported more fixed human settlements centered around farming and cattle herding. Thus, the dry periods favored pastoralist rather than farming activities. Conversely, tribes that practiced agriculture had some advantage in the wet periods. (papers)

  17. Response of C3 and C4 plants to middle-Holocene climatic variation near the prairie-forest ecotone of Minnesota, U.S.A.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tian, J; Brown, T A; Hu, F S; Stefanova, I; Nelson, D M

    2003-12-24

    Paleorecords of the middle Holocene (MH) from the North American midcontinent can offer insights into ecological responses to pervasive drought that may accompany future climatic warming. We analyzed MH sediments from West Olaf Lake (WOL) and Steel Lake (SL) in Minnesota to examine the effects of warm/dry climatic conditions on prairie-woodland ecosystems. Mineral composition and carbonate {delta}{sup 18}O were used to determine climatic variations, whereas pollen assemblages, charcoal {delta}{sup 13}C, and charcoal accumulation rates were used to reconstruct vegetation composition, C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plant abundance, and fire. The ratio of aragonite:calcite at WOL and {delta}{sup 18}O at SL suggest that pronounced droughts occurred during the MH but that drought severity decreased with time. From charcoal {delta}{sup 13}C data we estimated that the MH abundance of C{sub 4} plants averaged 50% at WOL and 43% at SL. At WOL C{sub 4} abundance was negatively correlated with aragonite:calcite, suggesting that severe moisture deficits suppressed C{sub 4} plants in favor of weedy C{sub 3} plants (e.g., Ambrosia). As climate ameliorated C{sub 4} abundance increased (from {approx}33 to 66%) at the expense of weedy species, enhancing fuel availability and fire occurrence. In contrast, farther east at SL climate was cooler and wetter than at WOL, and C{sub 4} abundance showed no correlation with {delta}{sup 18}O-inferred aridity. Woody C{sub 3} plants (e.g., Quercus) were more abundant, biomass flammability lower, and fires less important at SL than at WOL. Our results suggest that C{sub 4} plants are adapted to warm/dry climatic conditions, but not to extreme droughts, and that the fire regime is controlled by biomass-climate interactions.

  18. Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minji Seo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The cryosphere is an essential part of the earth system for understanding climate change. Components of the cryosphere, such as ice sheets and sea ice, are generally decreasing over time. However, previous studies have indicated differing trends between the Antarctic and the Arctic. The South Pole also shows internal differences in trends. These phenomena indicate the importance of continuous observation of the Polar Regions. Albedo is a main indicator for analyzing Antarctic climate change and is an important variable with regard to the radiation budget because it can provide positive feedback on polar warming and is related to net radiation and atmospheric heating in the mainly snow- and ice-covered Antarctic. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed long-term temporal and spatial variability of albedo and investigated the interrelationships between albedo and climatic variables over Antarctica. We used broadband surface albedo data from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and data for several climatic variables such as temperature and Antarctic oscillation index (AAO during the period of 1983 to 2009. Time series analysis and correlation analysis were performed through linear regression using albedo and climatic variables. The results of this research indicated that albedo shows two trends, west trend and an east trend, over Antarctica. Most of the western side of Antarctica showed a negative trend of albedo (about −0.0007 to −0.0015 year−1, but the other side showed a positive trend (about 0.0006 year−1. In addition, albedo and surface temperature had a negative correlation, but this relationship was weaker in west Antarctica than in east Antarctica. The correlation between albedo and AAO revealed different relationships in the two regions; west Antarctica had a negative correlation and east Antarctica showed a positive correlation. In addition, the correlation between albedo and AAO was weaker in the west. This

  19. The impact of climatic variability and climate change on arabic coffee crop in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Camargo,Marcelo Bento Paes de

    2010-01-01

    The climatic variability is the main factor responsible for the oscillations and frustrations of the coffee grain yield in Brazil. The relationships between the climatic parameters and the agricultural production are quite complex, because environmental factors affect the growth and the development of the plants under different forms during the growth stages of the coffee crop. Agrometeorological models related to the growth, development and productivity can supply information for the soil wa...

  20. Shift of biome patterns due to simulated climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claussen, M.

    1993-01-01

    The variability of simulated equilibrium-response patterns of biomes caused by simulated climate variability and climate shift is analysed. This investigation is based on various realisations of simulated present-day climate and climate shift. It has been found that the difference between biomes computed from three 10-year climatologies and from the corresponding 30-year climatology, simulated by the Hamburg climate model at T21 resolution, amounts to approximately 6% of the total land area, Antarctica excluded. This difference is mainly due to differences in annual moisture availability and winter temperatures. When intercomparing biomes from the 10-year climatologies a 10% difference is seen, but there is no unique difference pattern. In contrast to the interdecadal variability, the shift of conditions favorable for biomes due to a shift in climate in the next 100 years, caused by an increase in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 , reveals a unique trend pattern. It turns out that the strongest and most significant signal is the north-east shift of conditions for boreal biomes. This signal is caused by an increase of annual temperature sums as well as mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months. Trends in annual moisture availability are of secondary importance globally. Regionally, a decrease in water availability affects biomes in Central and East Europe and an increase of water availability leads to a potential increase in tropical rain forest. In total, all differences amount to roughly 30% of the total land surface, Antarctica excluded. (orig./KW)

  1. Catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climatic variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, W.; Zhang, C.; Li, Y.; Tang, Y.; Wang, D.; Xu, B.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic responses to climate variability and change are important for human society. Here we test the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategies for evapotranspiration and water storage carryover with uncertain future precipitation. The hedging strategy for evapotranspiration in catchments under different levels of water availability is analytically derived from the economic perspective. It is found that there exists hedging between evapotranspiration for current and future only with a portion of water availability. Observation data sets of 160 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1983 to 2003 demonstrate the existence of hedging in catchment hydrology and validate the proposed hedging strategies. We also find that more water is allocated to carryover storage for hedging against the future evapotranspiration risk in the catchments with larger aridity indexes or with larger uncertainty in future precipitation, i.e., long-term climate and precipitation variability control the degree of hedging.

  2. Quantitative assessment of drivers of recent climate variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhaskar, Ankush; Ramesh, Durbha Sai; Vichare, Geeta

    2016-01-01

    Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent climate variability remain a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized variant. It distinctly quantifies actual information...... exchanged along with the directional flow of information between any two variables with no bearing on their common history or inputs, unlike correlation, mutual information etc. Measurements of greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4, and N2O; volcanic aerosols; solar activity: UV radiation, total solar irradiance (TSI...... ) and cosmic ray flux (CR); El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (GMTA) made during 1984-2005 are utilized to distinguish driving and responding climate signals. Estimates of their relative contributions reveal that CO 2 (~24%), CH 4 (~19%) and volcanic aerosols (~23...

  3. Climate variability impacts on rice crop production in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakoor, U.; Saboor, A.; Baig, I.

    2015-01-01

    The climate variability has affected the agriculture production all over the globe. This concern has motivated important changes in the field of research during the last decade. Climate changes are believed to have declining effects towards crop production in Pakistan. This study carries an empirical investigation of the effects of climate change on rice crop of Pakistan by employing Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. Annual seasonal data of the climatic variables from 1980 to 2013 has been used. Results confirmed that rising mean maximum temperature would lead to reduction in rice production while increase in mean minimum temperature would be advantageous towards rice production. Variation in mean minimum temperature brought about seven percent increase in rice productivity as shown by Variance Decomposition. Mean precipitation and mean temperature would increase rice production but simulations scenarios for 2030 confirmed that much increase in rainfall and mean temperature in long run will negatively affect rice production in future. It is therefore important to follow adequate policy action to safeguard crop productions from disastrous effects. Development of varieties resistant to high temperatures as well as droughts will definitely enhance resilience of rice crop in Pakistan. (author)

  4. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

    2017-01-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  5. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

    2017-06-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  6. Exploring the Causes of Mid-Holocene Drought in the Rocky Mountains Using Hydrologic Forward Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meador, E.; Morrill, C.

    2017-12-01

    We present a quantitative model-data comparison for mid-Holocene (6 ka) lake levels in the Rocky Mountains, with the goals of assessing the skill coupled climate models and hydrologic forward models in simulating climate change and improving our understanding of the factors causing past changes in water resources. The mid-Holocene climate in this area may in some ways be similar to expected future climate, thus improved understanding of the factors causing past changes in water resources have the potential to aid in the process of water allocation for large areas that share a relatively small water source. This project focuses on Little Windy Hill Pond in the Medicine Bow Forest in the Rocky Mountains in southern Wyoming. We first calibrated the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) catchment hydrologic model and the one-dimensional Hostetler Bartlein lake energy-balance model to modern observations, using U.S. Geological Survey stream discharge data and Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) data to ensure appropriate selection of model parameters. Once the models were calibrated to modern conditions, we forced them with output from eight mid-Holocene coupled climate model simulations completed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5. Forcing from nearly all of the CMIP5 models generates intense, short-lived droughts for the mid-Holocene that are more severe than any we modeled for the past six decades. The severity of the mid-Holocene droughts could be sufficient, depending on sediment processes in the lake, to account for low lake levels recorded by loss-on-ignition in sediment cores. Our preliminary analysis of model output indicates that the combined effects of decreased snowmelt runoff and increased summer lake evaporation cause low mid-Holocene lake levels. These factors are also expected to be important in the future under anthropogenic climate change.

  7. Holocene extreme hydrological events and their climatic implications: evidence from the middle Satluj valley, western Himalaya, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Shubhra; Shukla, Anil; Marh, Bhupinder; Bartarya, Sukesh; Juyal, Navin

    2016-04-01

    Extreme hydrological events and associated climatic processes are investigated and inferred through palaeoflood deposits preserved in the middle Satluj valley, India. Satluj River is the largest tributary of the Indus River having third largest catchment area in the Himalaya. Both Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the mid-latitude westerlies contribute to the hydrological budget of the river. The steep southern orographic front prevents the northward penetration of ISM, while the mid-latitude westerlies bring moisture in form of winter snow to the orogenic interiors. It has been observed that the floods in the Himalaya are intimately associated with the variability in the above climate systems. The optical chronology indicates that floods were clustered around three time domains. The oldest flood phase-1 is dated to ˜14-12 ka which climatically occurred during the initiation of the ISM after the Last Glacial Maximum. The second phase-2 is dated between 8-5 ka and is attributed to the moderate ISM. Whereas, the youngest phase-3 is assigned the Little Ice Age (LIA) and were associated with the variability in the mid-latitude westerlies. Geochemical analyses suggest that floods were generated in higher Himalayan crystalline (HHC) zone, as the extreme precipitation destabilised the precipitous slopes creating Landslide induced Lake Outbursts Floods (LLOFs). Further, the average interval between floods has decreased since 14 ka from 500 years, to 250 years and 100 years during respective flood phases. The southern slopes of Himalaya are influenced by both the monsoon and mid-latitude westerlies and any abrupt changes in the circulation pattern were found to associate with heavy rainfall events in this region. Although an interaction between the westerlies and the monsoon is implicated for extreme floods in the western Himalaya. However, exact mechanism of these interactions is still illusive except for the observational based studies which state that extreme floods

  8. An attempt to assess the energy related climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iotova, A [Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria). National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology

    1996-12-31

    A lot of efforts are directed now to study the interactions between energy and climate because of their significant importance for our planet. Globally, energy related emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) contribute for atmospheric warming. On regional level, where it is more difficult to determine concrete direction of climate variability and change, the role of energy remains considerable being not so direct as in the case of emissions` impact. Still there is essential necessity for further analyses and assessments of energy related climate variations and change in order to understand better and to quantify the energy - climate relations. In the presentation an attempt is made to develop approach for assessment of energy related climate variations on regional level. For this purpose, data and results from the research within Bulgarian Case Study (BCS) in the DECADES Inter-Agency Project framework are used. Considering the complex nature of the examined interconnections and the medium stage of the Study`s realisation, at the moment the approach can be presented in conceptual form. Correspondingly, the obtained results are illustrative and preliminary

  9. An attempt to assess the energy related climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iotova, A. [Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria). National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology

    1995-12-31

    A lot of efforts are directed now to study the interactions between energy and climate because of their significant importance for our planet. Globally, energy related emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) contribute for atmospheric warming. On regional level, where it is more difficult to determine concrete direction of climate variability and change, the role of energy remains considerable being not so direct as in the case of emissions` impact. Still there is essential necessity for further analyses and assessments of energy related climate variations and change in order to understand better and to quantify the energy - climate relations. In the presentation an attempt is made to develop approach for assessment of energy related climate variations on regional level. For this purpose, data and results from the research within Bulgarian Case Study (BCS) in the DECADES Inter-Agency Project framework are used. Considering the complex nature of the examined interconnections and the medium stage of the Study`s realisation, at the moment the approach can be presented in conceptual form. Correspondingly, the obtained results are illustrative and preliminary

  10. Nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability: from curves to manifolds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The necessity of efficient dimensionality reduction methods capturing dynamical properties of the system from observed data is evident. Recent study shows that nonlinear dynamical mode (NDM) expansion is able to solve this problem and provide adequate phase variables in climate data analysis [1]. A single NDM is logical extension of linear spatio-temporal structure (like empirical orthogonal function pattern): it is constructed as nonlinear transformation of hidden scalar time series to the space of observed variables, i. e. projection of observed dataset onto a nonlinear curve. Both the hidden time series and the parameters of the curve are learned simultaneously using Bayesian approach. The only prior information about the hidden signal is the assumption of its smoothness. The optimal nonlinearity degree and smoothness are found using Bayesian evidence technique. In this work we do further extension and look for vector hidden signals instead of scalar with the same smoothness restriction. As a result we resolve multidimensional manifolds instead of sum of curves. The dimension of the hidden manifold is optimized using also Bayesian evidence. The efficiency of the extension is demonstrated on model examples. Results of application to climate data are demonstrated and discussed. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510

  11. Effect of Climate Variability on Crop Income in Central Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arega Shumetie Ademe

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Ethiopian agriculture is a vulnerable sector from effects of climate variability. This study identified how strong is the effect of climate variability on smallholders’ crop income in Central highlands and Arssi grain plough farming systems of the country. The unbalanced panel data (1994-2014 of the study collected for eight rounds analysed through fixed effect regression. The model result shows that successive increment of crop season rainfall keeping the temperature constant has negative and significant effect on households’ crop income in the study area. The crop income responds similarly for temperature increment if the rainfall remains constant. Given this, simultaneous increment of the two climate related inputs has positive and significant effect on crop income. Other variables like flood, frost, storm, and rainfall inconsistency in the onset and cessation time affected households’ crop income negatively and significantly. Similarly, draught power and human labour, which are critical inputs in the crop production of Ethiopian smallholders, have positive and significant effect on crop income as to the model result. Thus, this study recommended that there should be supplementing the rainfall through irrigation, check dam and other activities to have consistent water supply for the crop production that enable smallholders to collect better income. Additionally, negative effect of temperature increment should be curved through adopting long lasting strategies like afforestation.

  12. Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

    2018-04-01

    This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

  13. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  14. Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

    2015-03-07

    How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  15. Methods for assessment of climate variability and climate changes in different time-space scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobanov, V.; Lobanova, H.

    2004-01-01

    Main problem of hydrology and design support for water projects connects with modern climate change and its impact on hydrological characteristics as observed as well as designed. There are three main stages of this problem: - how to extract a climate variability and climate change from complex hydrological records; - how to assess the contribution of climate change and its significance for the point and area; - how to use the detected climate change for computation of design hydrological characteristics. Design hydrological characteristic is the main generalized information, which is used for water management and design support. First step of a research is a choice of hydrological characteristic, which can be as a traditional one (annual runoff for assessment of water resources, maxima, minima runoff, etc) as well as a new one, which characterizes an intra-annual function or intra-annual runoff distribution. For this aim a linear model has been developed which has two coefficients connected with an amplitude and level (initial conditions) of seasonal function and one parameter, which characterizes an intensity of synoptic and macro-synoptic fluctuations inside a year. Effective statistical methods have been developed for a separation of climate variability and climate change and extraction of homogeneous components of three time scales from observed long-term time series: intra annual, decadal and centural. The first two are connected with climate variability and the last (centural) with climate change. Efficiency of new methods of decomposition and smoothing has been estimated by stochastic modeling and well as on the synthetic examples. For an assessment of contribution and statistical significance of modern climate change components statistical criteria and methods have been used. Next step has been connected with a generalization of the results of detected climate changes over the area and spatial modeling. For determination of homogeneous region with the same

  16. Partitioning inter annual variability in net ecosystem exchange between climatic variability and functional change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hui, D.; Luo, Y.; Katul, G.

    2003-01-01

    Inter annual variability in net ecosystem exchange of carbon is investigated using a homogeneity-of-slopes model to identify the function change contributing to inter annual variability, net ecosystem carbon exchange, and night-time ecosystem respiration. Results of employing this statistical approach to a data set collected at the Duke Forest AmeriFlux site from August 1997 to December 2001 are discussed. The results demonstrate that it is feasible to partition the variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes into direct effects of seasonal and inter annual climatic variability and functional change. 51 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs

  17. Insolation driven biomagnetic response to the Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Suzhen; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig A.; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

    2015-01-01

    The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8?ka and decrease at ~5.9?ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively wit...

  18. Influence of Climate Variability on US Regional Homicide Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harp, R. D.; Karnauskas, K. B.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies have found consistent evidence of a relationship between temperature and criminal behavior. However, despite agreement in the overall relationship, little progress has been made in distinguishing between two proposed explanatory theories. The General Affective Aggression Model (GAAM) suggests that high temperatures create periods of higher heat stress that enhance individual aggressiveness, whereas the Routine Activities Theory (RAT) theorizes that individuals are more likely to be outdoors interacting with others during periods of pleasant weather with a resulting increase in both interpersonal interactions and victim availability. Further, few studies have considered this relationship within the context of climate change in a quantitative manner. In an effort to distinguish between the two theories, and to examine the statistical relationships on a broader spatial scale than previously, we combined data from the Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR—compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR—compiled by the National Centers for Environmental Protection, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). US homicide data described by the SHR was compared with seven relevant observed climate variables (temperature, dew point, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation, accumulated snowfall, snow cover, and snow depth) provided by the NARR atmospheric reanalysis. Relationships between homicide rates and climate variables, as well as reveal regional spatial patterns will be presented and discussed, along with the implications due to future climate change. This research lays the groundwork for the refinement of estimates of an oft-overlooked climate change impact, which has previously been estimated to cause an additional 22,000 murders between 2010 and 2099, including providing important constraints for empirical models of future violent crime incidences in the face of global

  19. Impacts of Austrian Climate Variability on Honey Bee Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switanek, Matt; Brodschneider, Robert; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo

    2015-04-01

    Global food production, as it is today, is not possible without pollinators such as the honey bee. It is therefore alarming that honey bee populations across the world have seen increased mortality rates in the last few decades. The challenges facing the honey bee calls into question the future of our food supply. Beside various infectious diseases, Varroa destructor is one of the main culprits leading to increased rates of honey bee mortality. Varroa destructor is a parasitic mite which strongly depends on honey bee brood for reproduction and can wipe out entire colonies. However, climate variability may also importantly influence honey bee breeding cycles and bee mortality rates. Persistent weather events affects vegetation and hence foraging possibilities for honey bees. This study first defines critical statistical relationships between key climate indicators (e.g., precipitation and temperature) and bee mortality rates across Austria, using 6 consecutive years of data. Next, these leading indicators, as they vary in space and time, are used to build a statistical model to predict bee mortality rates and the respective number of colonies affected. Using leave-one-out cross validation, the model reduces the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 21% with respect to predictions made with the mean mortality rate and the number of colonies. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo test is used to establish that the model's predictions are statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. These results highlight the influence of climate variables on honey bee populations, although variability in climate, by itself, cannot fully explain colony losses. This study was funded by the Austrian project 'Zukunft Biene'.

  20. Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanvyve, Emilie; Ypersele, Jean-Pascal van [Universite catholique de Louvain, Institut d' astronomie et de geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hall, Nicholas [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales/Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse Cedex 9 (France); Messager, Christophe [University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, Environment, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Leroux, Stephanie [Universite Joseph Fourier, Laboratoire d' etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, BP53, Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

    2008-02-15

    Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales. (orig.)

  1. Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.

    2005-01-01

    Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the only...... rapid cooling recorded during the Holocene in Greenland ice cores and in Ammersee, Germany. The rate of warming during previous warmer interglacial periods is estimated from polar ice cores to 1.5 °C per millennium, without abrupt changes. Climate change expected for the 21st century should however...

  2. Variability in soybean yield in Brazil stemming from the interaction of heterogeneous management and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, A.; Bragança, A.; Jeffries, G. R.

    2017-12-01

    An increasing share of global agricultural production can be found in the humid tropics. Therefore, an improved understanding of the mechanisms governing variability in the output of tropical agricultural systems is of increasing importance for food security including through climate change adaptation. Yet, the long window over which many tropical crops can be sown, the diversity of crop varieties and management practices combine to challenge inference into climate risk to cropping output in analyses of tropical crop-climate sensitivity employing administrative data. In this paper, we leverage a newly developed spatially explicit dataset of soybean yields in Brazil to combat this problem. The dataset was built by training a model of remotely-sensed vegetation index data and land cover classification data using a rich in situ dataset of soybean yield and management variables collected over the period 2006 to 2016. The dataset contains soybean yields by plant date, cropping frequency, and maturity group for each 5km grid cell in Brazil. We model variation in these yields using an approach enabling the estimation of the influence of management factors on the sensitivity of soybean yields to variability in: cumulative solar radiation, extreme degree days, growing degree days, flooding rain in the harvest period, and dry spells in the rainy season. We find strong variation in climate sensitivity by management class. Planting date and maturity group each explained a great deal more variation in yield sensitivity than did cropping frequency. Brazil collects comparatively fine spatial resolution yield data. But, our attempt to replicate our results using administrative soy yield data revealed substantially lesser crop-climate sensitivity; suggesting that previous analyses employing administrative data may have underestimated climate risk to tropical soy production.

  3. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change in smallholder farming systems in Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rurinda, J.

    2014-01-01

    Keywords: Climate change; Increased climate variability; Vulnerability; Smallholder farmers; Adaptation

    Climate change and increased climate variability are currently seen as the major constraints to the already stressed smallholder farming livelihood system in

  4. Saharan dust, climate variability, and asthma in Grenada, the Caribbean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akpinar-Elci, Muge; Martin, Francis E; Behr, Joshua G; Diaz, Rafael

    2015-11-01

    Saharan dust is transported across the Atlantic and interacts with the Caribbean seasonal climatic conditions, becoming respirable and contributing to asthma presentments at the emergency department. This study investigated the relationships among dust, climatic variables, and asthma-related visits to the emergency room in Grenada. All asthma visits to the emergency room (n = 4411) over 5 years (2001-2005) were compared to the dust cover and climatic variables for the corresponding period. Variation in asthma was associated with change in dust concentration (R(2) = 0.036, p asthma was positively correlated with rainfall (R(2) = 0.055, p asthma visits were inversely related to mean sea level pressure (R(2) = 0.123, p = 0.006) and positively correlated with relative humidity (R(2) = 0.593, p = 0.85). Saharan dust in conjunction with seasonal humidity allows for inhalable particulate matter that exacerbates asthma among residents in the Caribbean island of Grenada. These findings contribute evidence suggesting a broader public health impact from Saharan dust. Thus, this research may inform strategic planning of resource allocation among the Caribbean public health agencies.

  5. Marine assemblages respond rapidly to winter climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morley, James W; Batt, Ryan D; Pinsky, Malin L

    2017-07-01

    Even species within the same assemblage have varied responses to climate change, and there is a poor understanding for why some taxa are more sensitive to climate than others. In addition, multiple mechanisms can drive species' responses, and responses may be specific to certain life stages or times of year. To test how marine species respond to climate variability, we analyzed 73 diverse taxa off the southeast US coast in 26 years of scientific trawl survey data and determined how changes in distribution and biomass relate to temperature. We found that winter temperatures were particularly useful for explaining interannual variation in species' distribution and biomass, although the direction and magnitude of the response varied among species from strongly negative, to little response, to strongly positive. Across species, the response to winter temperature varied greatly, with much of this variation being explained by thermal preference. A separate analysis of annual commercial fishery landings revealed that winter temperatures may also impact several important fisheries in the southeast United States. Based on the life stages of the species surveyed, winter temperature appears to act through overwinter mortality of juveniles or as a cue for migration timing. We predict that this assemblage will be responsive to projected increases in temperature and that winter temperature may be broadly important for species relationships with climate on a global scale. © The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenza, Jan C; Ploubidis, George B; George, Linda A

    2011-05-21

    Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4-4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1-3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2-3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4-3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5-3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1-2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0-2.2). Motivation for voluntary mitigation is mostly dependent on

  7. Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ploubidis George B

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. Methods In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Results Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622 acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility, Odds Ratio (OR = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI: 1.4 - 4.0, endanger their life (perceived severity, OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1 - 3.1, or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 - 3.5. Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4 - 3.1 or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5 -3.2 for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 - 2.4 or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0 - 2

  8. An analysis of prediction skill of monthly mean climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Arun; Chen, Mingyue; Wang, Wanqiu [Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CPC/NCEP), Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-09-15

    In this paper, lead-time and spatial dependence in skill for prediction of monthly mean climate variability is analyzed. The analysis is based on a set of extensive hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The skill characteristics of initialized predictions is also compared with the AMIP simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature (SST) to quantify the role of initial versus boundary conditions in the prediction of monthly means. The analysis is for prediction of monthly mean SST, precipitation, and 200-hPa height. The results show a rapid decay in skill with lead time for the atmospheric variables in the extratropical latitudes. Further, after a lead-time of approximately 30-40 days, the skill of monthly mean prediction is essentially a boundary forced problem, with SST anomalies in the tropical central/eastern Pacific playing a dominant role. Because of the larger contribution from the atmospheric internal variability to monthly time-averages (compared to seasonal averages), skill for monthly mean prediction associated with boundary forcing is also lower. The analysis indicates that the prospects of skillful prediction of monthly means may remain a challenging problem, and may be limited by inherent limits in predictability. (orig.)

  9. Low-frequency and high-frequency changes in temperature and effective humidity during the Holocene in south-central Sweden: implications for atmospheric and oceanic forcings of climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seppae, H. [University of Helsinki, Department of Geology, 64, Helsinki (Finland); Hammarlund, D. [Lund University, GeoBiosphere Science Centre, Quaternary Sciences, Lund (Sweden); Antonsson, K. [Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2005-08-01

    An integrated use of independent palaeoclimatological proxy techniques that reflect different components of the climate system provides a potential key for functional analysis of past climate changes. Here we report a 10,000 year quantitative record of annual mean temperature (T{sub ann}), based on pollen-climate transfer functions and pollen-stratigraphical data from Lake Flarken, south-central Sweden. The pollen-based temperature reconstruction is compared with a reconstruction of effective humidity, as reflected by a {delta}{sup 18}O record obtained on stratigraphy of lacustrine carbonates from Lake Igelsjoen, c. 10 km from Lake Flarken, which gives evidence of pronounced changes in effective humidity. The relatively low T{sub ann}, and high effective humidity as reflected by a low evaporation/inflow ratio suggest a maritime early Holocene climate (10,000-8,300 cal year BP), seemingly incompatible with the highly seasonal solar insolation configuration. We argue that the maritime climate was due to the stronger-than-present zonal flow, enhanced by the high early Holocene sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The maritime climate mode was disrupted by the abrupt cold event at 8,200 cal year BP, followed at 8,000 cal year BP by a stable Holocene Thermal Maximum. The latter was characterized by T{sub ann} values about 2.5 C higher than at present and markedly dry conditions, indicative of stable summer-time anti-cyclonic circulation, possibly corresponding with modern blocking anticyclonic conditions. The last 4,300 year period is characterized by an increasingly cold, moist, and unstable climate. The results demonstrate the value of combining two independent palaeoclimatic proxies in enhancing the reliability, generality, and interpretability of the palaeoclimatic results. Further methodological refinements especially in resolving past seasonal climatic contrasts are needed to better understand the role of different forcing factors in driving millennial

  10. Orbital Forcing driving climate variability on Tropical South Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, A. S.; Baker, P. A.; Silva, C. G.; Dwyer, G. S.; Chiessi, C. M.; Rigsby, C. A.; Ferreira, F.

    2017-12-01

    Past research on climate response to orbital forcing in tropical South America has emphasized on high precession cycles influencing low latitude hydrologic cycles, and driving the meridional migration of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).However, marine proxy records from the tropical Pacific Ocean showed a strong 41-ka periodicities in Pleistocene seawater temperature and productivity related to fluctuations in Earth's obliquity. It Indicates that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. To reconstruct different climate regimes over the continent and understand the orbital cycle forcing over Tropical South America climate, hydrological reconstruction have been undertaken on sediment cores located on the Brazilian continental slope, representing the past 1.6 million years. Core CDH 79 site is located on a 2345 m deep seamount on the northern Brazilian continental slope (00° 39.6853' N, 44° 20.7723' W), 320 km from modern coastline of the Maranhão Gulf. High-resolution XRF analyses of Fe, Ti, K and Ca are used to define the changes in precipitation and sedimentary input history of Tropical South America. The response of the hydrology cycle to orbital forcing was studied using spectral analysis.The 1600 ka records of dry/wet conditions presented here indicates that orbital time-scale climate change has been a dominant feature of tropical climate. We conclude that the observed oscillation reflects variability in the ITCZ activity associated with the Earth's tilt. The prevalence of the eccentricity and obliquity signals in continental hydrology proxies (Ti/Ca and Fe/K) as implicated in our precipitation records, highlights that these orbital forcings play an important role in tropics hydrologic cycles. Throughout the Quaternary abrupt shifts of tropical variability are temporally correlated with abrupt climate changes and atmospheric reorganization during Mid-Pleistocene Transition and Mid-Brunhes Events

  11. Response of the Amazon rainforest to late Pleistocene climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häggi, Christoph; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; Merkel, Ute; Mulitza, Stefan; Prange, Matthias; Schulz, Michael; Schefuß, Enno

    2017-12-01

    Variations in Amazonian hydrology and forest cover have major consequences for the global carbon and hydrological cycles as well as for biodiversity. Yet, the climate and vegetation history of the lowland Amazon basin and its effect on biogeography remain debated due to the scarcity of suitable high-resolution paleoclimate records. Here, we use the isotopic composition (δD and δ13C) of plant-waxes from a high-resolution marine sediment core collected offshore the Amazon River to reconstruct the climate and vegetation history of the integrated lowland Amazon basin for the period from 50,000 to 12,800 yr before present. Our results show that δD values from the Last Glacial Maximum were more enriched than those from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and the present-day. We interpret this trend to reflect long-term changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation, with overall drier conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results thus suggest a dominant glacial forcing of the climate in lowland Amazonia. In addition to previously suggested thermodynamic mechanisms of precipitation change, which are directly related to temperature, we conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation are crucial to explain the temporal evolution of Amazonian rainfall variations, as demonstrated in climate model experiments. Our vegetation reconstruction based on δ13C values shows that the Amazon rainforest was affected by intrusions of savannah or more open vegetation types in its northern sector during Heinrich Stadials, while it was resilient to glacial drying. This suggests that biogeographic patterns in tropical South America were affected by Heinrich Stadials in addition to glacial-interglacial climate variability.

  12. A Framework for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leary, N.A.

    1999-01-01

    The potential damages of climate change and climate variability are dependent upon the responses or adaptations that people make to their changing environment. By adapting the management of resources, the mix and methods of producing goods and services, choices of leisure activities, and other behavior, people can lessen the damages that would otherwise result. A framework for assessing the benefits and costs of adaptation to both climate change and climate variability is described in the paper. The framework is also suitable for evaluating the economic welfare effects of climate change, allowing for autonomous adaptation by private agents. The paper also briefly addresses complications introduced by uncertainty regarding the benefits of adaptation and irreversibility of investments in adaptation. When investment costs are irreversible and there is uncertainty about benefits, the usual net present value criterion for evaluating the investment gives the wrong decision. If delaying an adaptation project is possible, and if delay will permit learning about future benefits of adaptation, it may be preferable to delay the project even if the expected net present value is positive. Implications of this result for adaptation policy are discussed in the paper. 11 refs

  13. Rising climate variability and synchrony in North Pacific ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Bryan

    2017-04-01

    Rising climate variability and synchrony in North Pacific ecosystems Evidence is growing that climate variability of the northeast Pacific Ocean has increased over the last century, culminating in such events as the record-breaking El Niño years 1983, 1998, and 2016 and the unusually persistent 2014/15 North Pacific Ocean heat wave known as "The Blob." Of particular concern is that rising variability could increase synchrony within and among North Pacific ecosystems, which could reduce the diversity of biological responses to climate (i.e. the "portfolio effect"), diminish resilience, and leave populations more prone to extirpation. To test this phenomenon, we use a network of multidecadal fish otolith growth-increment chronologies that were strongly correlated to records of winter (Jan-Mar) sea level. These biological and physical datasets spanned the California Current through the Gulf of Alaska. Synchrony was quantified as directional changes in running (31-year window) mean pairwise correlation within sea level and then within otolith time series. Synchrony in winter sea level at the nine stations with the longest records has increased by more than 40% over the 1950-2015 interval. Likewise, synchrony among the eight longest otolith chronologies has increased more than 100% over a comparable time period. These directional changes in synchrony are highly unlikely due to chance alone, as confirmed by comparing trends in observed data to those in simulated data (n = 10,000 iterations) with time series of identical number, length, and autocorrelation. Ultimately, this trend in rising synchrony may be linked to increased impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on mid-latitude ecosystems of North America, and may therefore reflect a much broader, global-scale signature.

  14. Impacts of Evolutionary History on Endangerment in a Changing Climate: Miocene upwelling, Holocene Pluvial Cycles and Endemics at the Mouth of the Colorado River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, D. K.

    2006-12-01

    The environmental conditions communities experienced during their diversification and recent geologic history informs us as to which environmental changes are most likely to impact species in those communities. Three examples follow: 1) Recent compilation of molecular and paleontological data document that higher aspects of the trophic chain in the Pacific Northwest, including the salmon genus Onchoyrhynchus, alcid birds (Auks & Puffins) and crabs of the genus Cancer speciated dramatically in response to enhanced upwelling of the mid Miocene (Jacobs et al. 2004). Consistent with this evolutionary origin, population dynamics and endangerment of these taxa are associated with the changing productivity regime of the Pacific as well as more direct human impacts. 2) Pluvials in the Eurasian and African continent respond to the precession cycle, as a result wetland habitats were much more expansive in the early and middle Holocene. Late Holocene wetland habitat contraction combines with increasing anthropogenic manipulation of these cyclically limited hydrologic resources to yield a suite of endangered taxa across these continents as is statistically documented by analysis of Redbook data. 3) Our recent work documents the evolution of endemic fish and Molluscan taxa in association with the Colorado River Delta. These endemic taxa are then vulnerable to the to impacts on the Colorado Delta where anthropogenic use of water resources combine with the threat of climate provide combined threats to this ecosystem. The Environmental/Evolutionary history of lineages clearly has strong implications for how anthropogenic changes impacts and endangers those lineages. Jacobs D.K. et al. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 2004. 32:601 52

  15. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

    2017-10-01

    Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

  16. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

  17. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-11-07

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

  18. Role of neotectonics and climate in development of the Holocene geomorphology and soils of the Gangetic Plains between the Ramganga and Rapti rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Pankaj; Parkash, B.; Sehgal, J. L.; Kumar, Sudhir

    1994-12-01

    Fifteen soil-geomorphic units have been delineated from the Gangetic Plains between the Ramganga and Rapti rivers. They were identified by remote sensing and field checks. On the basis of degree of profile development, their soils are grouped into five members (QGH1 to QGH5, QGH5 being the oldest) of a soil chrono-association. Tentative ages assigned to QGH1 to QGH5 are 500, > 2500, 8000 and 13,5000 yr B.P., respectively. From the early Holocene to about 6500 yr. B.P. a cold, arid to semi-arid climate prevailed and pedogenic calcrete developed over large areas in the Gangetic Plains. Later, a warm and humid climate and improved drainage resulted in complete removal of calcrete from soil profiles in some areas or its dissolution and re-precipitation in lower horizons in other areas. Neotectonics seems to have played a significant role in the evolution of the geomorphology and soils of the area. It determined areas of active sedimentation, pedogenesis and erosion (in upland regions). It led to tilting and sagging of large blocks resulting in shifting and increase in sinuosity of the rivers. Tectonic slopes/faults determined the courses of large rivers.

  19. Millennial-scale climate variations in western Mediterranean during late Pleistocene-early Holocene: multi-proxy analyses from Padul peatbog (southern Iberian Peninsula)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camuera, Jon; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; José Ramos-Román, María; García-Alix, Antonio; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco; Toney, Jaime L.; Anderson, R. Scott; Kaufman, Darrell; Bright, Jordon; Sachse, Dirk

    2017-04-01

    Padul peatbog, located in southern Iberian Peninsula (western Mediterranean region) is a unique area for palaeoenvironmental studies due to its location, between arid and temperate climates. Previous studies showed that the Padul peatbog contains a continuous record of the last ca. 0.8-1 Ma, so it is an extraordinary site to identify glacial-interglacial phases as well as Heinrich and D-O events, linked to orbital- and suborbital-scale variations. In 2015, a new 42 m long core was taken from this area, providing an excellent sediment record probably for the last ca. 300,000 years. This study is focused on the paleoenvironmental and climatic reconstruction of the late Pleistocene and the early Holocene (ca. from 50,000 to 9,500 cal. yrs BP), using AMS 14C and AAR dating, high-resolution pollen analysis, lithology, continuous XRF-scanning, X-ray diffraction, magnetic susceptibility and organic geochemistry. These different proxies provide information not only about the regional environment change but also about local changes in the conditions of the Padul lake/peatbog due to variations in water temperature, pH or nutrients.

  20. Relation between the sedimentary organic record and the climatic oscilations in the Holocene attested by palynofacies and organic geochemical analyses from a pond of altitude in southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GABRIELLI T. GADENS-MARCON

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the quantitative and qualitative results obtained from palynofacies and geochemistry analyses carried out on a core covering approximately 8000 years of sedimentation of a pond of altitude located at the mining district of Ametista do Sul, southernmost Brazil. The main objective of this paper is to consider the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironment