EVALUATING SHORT-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE LATE HOLOCENE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joseph H. Hartman

1999-09-01

This literature study investigated methods and areas to deduce climate change and climate patterns, looking for short-term cycle phenomena and the means to interpret them. Many groups are actively engaged in intensive climate-related research. Ongoing research might be (overly) simplified into three categories: (1) historic data on weather that can be used for trend analysis and modeling; (2) detailed geological, biological (subfossil), and analytical (geochemical, radiocarbon, etc.) studies covering the last 10,000 years (about since last glaciation); and (3) geological, paleontological, and analytical (geochemical, radiometric, etc.) studies over millions of years. Of importance is our ultimate ability to join these various lines of inquiry into an effective means of interpretation. At this point, the process of integration is fraught with methodological troubles and misconceptions about what each group can contribute. This project has met its goals to the extent that it provided an opportunity to study resource materials and consider options for future effort toward the goal of understanding the natural climate variation that has shaped our current civilization. A further outcome of this project is a proposed methodology based on ''climate sections'' that provides spatial and temporal correlation within a region. The method would integrate cultural and climate data to establish the climate history of a region with increasing accuracy with progressive study and scientific advancement (e. g., better integration of regional and global models). The goal of this project is to better understand natural climatic variations in the recent past (last 5000 years). The information generated by this work is intended to provide better context within which to examine global climate change. The ongoing project will help to establish a basis upon which to interpret late Holocene short-term climate variability as evidenced in various studies in the northern

A Holocene temperature reconstruction from northern New Zealand: a test of North Atlantic Holocene climate patterns as a global template

Science.gov (United States)

van den Bos, Valerie; Rees, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Augustinus, Paul

2017-04-01

Holocene climate variability has been well defined in the North Atlantic (Walker et al., 2012), but the global extent of this climate change stratigraphy is debatable. If the North Atlantic serves as a global template for Holocene climate, then New Zealand (NZ) is ideally positioned to test this assertion, as it is distal from the northern drivers. Additionally, it is one of the few landmasses in the Southern Hemisphere that is influenced by both sub-tropical and extra-tropical climatic regimes, which may be more important controls in the southern mid-latitudes. Although much work has been done to characterise the Holocene in NZ using pollen, most of these records lack the resolution or sensitivity to determine whether abrupt or short-lived events occurred. The NZ-INTIMATE climate event stratigraphy lacks a type section for the Holocene (Alloway et al., 2007). Records from northern NZ typically show little change, other than a possible early Holocene warming. Here, we present a combined pollen and chironomid temperature reconstruction from Lake Pupuke (northern NZ), the first of its kind in NZ that covers the entire Holocene. By comparing mean annual temperatures reconstructed from fossil pollen and mean summer temperatures inferred from chironomid remains, we can assess changes in seasonality. Mean summer temperature was reconstructed from the chironomid record using a weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) model (n comp = 2, r2booth = 0.77, RMSEP = 1.4°C) developed from an expanded version of Dieffenbacher-Krall et al. (2007)'s chironomid training set. Preliminary results show evidence for cool summers during the early Holocene as well as around the period of the Little Ice Age as defined in the North Atlantic region. These and other climate patterns determined from the Pupuke chironomid and pollen records will be compared with other evidence from northern New Zealand and with the North Atlantic record of Holocene climate variability. References

Late Holocene climate variability in the southwestern Mediterranean region: an integrated marine and terrestrial geochemical approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Martín-Puertas

2010-12-01

Full Text Available A combination of marine (Alboran Sea cores, ODP 976 and TTR 300 G and terrestrial (Zoñar Lake, Andalucia, Spain geochemical proxies provides a high-resolution reconstruction of climate variability and human influence in the southwestern Mediterranean region for the last 4000 years at inter-centennial resolution. Proxies respond to changes in precipitation rather than temperature alone. Our combined terrestrial and marine archive documents a succession of dry and wet periods coherent with the North Atlantic climate signal. A dry period occurred prior to 2.7 cal ka BP – synchronously to the global aridity crisis of the third-millennium BC – and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1.4–0.7 cal ka BP. Wetter conditions prevailed from 2.7 to 1.4 cal ka BP. Hydrological signatures during the Little Ice Age are highly variable but consistent with more humidity than the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, Pb anomalies in sediments at the end of the Bronze Age suggest anthropogenic pollution earlier than the Roman Empire development in the Iberian Peninsula. The Late Holocene climate evolution of the in the study area confirms the see-saw pattern between the eastern and western Mediterranean regions and the higher influence of the North Atlantic dynamics in the western Mediterranean.

A multiple-proxy approach to understanding rapid Holocene climate change in Southeast Greenland

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Davin, S. H.; Bradley, R. S.; Balascio, N. L.; de Wet, G.

2012-12-01

The susceptibility of the Arctic to climate change has made it an excellent workshop for paleoclimatological research. Although there have been previous studies concerning climate variability carried out in the Arctic, there remains a critical dearth of knowledge due the limited number of high-resolution Holocene climate-proxy records available from this region. This gap skews our understanding of observed and predicted climate change, and fuels uncertainty both in the realms of science and policy. This study takes a comprehensive approach to tracking Holocene climate variability in the vicinity of Tasiilaq, Southeast Greenland using a ~5.6 m sediment core from Lower Sermilik Lake. An age-depth model for the core has been established using 8 radiocarbon dates, the oldest of which was taken at 4 m down core and has been been dated to approximately 6.2 kyr BP. The bottom meter of the core below the final radiocarbon date contains a transition from cobbles and coarse sand to organic-rich laminations, indicating the termination of direct glacial influence and therefore likely marking the end of the last glacial period in this region. The remainder of the core is similarly organic-rich, with light-to-dark brown laminations ranging from 0.5 -1 cm in thickness and riddled with turbidites. Using this core in tandem with findings from an on-site assessment of the geomorphic history of the locale we attempt to assess and infer the rapid climatic shifts associated with the Holocene on a sub-centennial scale. Such changes include the termination of the last glacial period, the Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum, the Neoglacial Period, the Medieval Climatic Optimum, and the Little Ice Age. A multiple proxy approach including magnetic susceptibility, bulk organic geochemistry, elemental profiles acquired by XRF scanning, grain-size, and spectral data will be used to characterize the sediment and infer paleoclimate conditions. Additionally, percent biogenic silica by weight has been

Quantifying the effects of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Marquer, Laurent; Gaillard, Marie-José; Sugita, Shinya; Poska, Anneli; Trondman, Anna-Kari; Mazier, Florence; Nielsen, Anne Birgitte; Fyfe, Ralph M.; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Smith, Benjamin; Kaplan, Jed O.; Alenius, Teija; Birks, H. John B.; Bjune, Anne E.; Christiansen, Jörg; Dodson, John; Edwards, Kevin J.; Giesecke, Thomas; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Kangur, Mihkel; Koff, Tiiu; Latałowa, Małgorzata; Lechterbeck, Jutta; Olofsson, Jörgen; Seppä, Heikki

2017-09-01

Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen-based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming

Mid-Holocene to Present Climate Transition in Tropical South America

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Turcq, B.; Cordeiro, R.; Sifeddine, A.; Braconnot, P.; Dias, P. S.; Costa, R.; Jorgetti, T.

2008-12-01

The classical illustration of Holocene climate changes in tropical South America is the huge rising of Titicaca lake level from 4400 to 4000 cal BP. Because the Amazon basin is the source of Andean rainfalls we have explored Amazonian data of climate changes during the Holocene to better understand the cause of this abrupt transition. Amazonian data confirm the existence of mid-Holocene dryness: (1) lacustrine level studies show a lower precipitation/evaporation budget than present, with the lowest lake levels between 8500 and 6800 cal BP; (2) although the dominant Holocene vegetation has always been the rainforest in the heart of Amazonia, this forest expanded towards the northwestern and southwestern regions from 6800 to 1550 cal BP, moreover, pioneer elements of the rainforest developed during the mid-Holocene and the best example is those of Cecropia, between 9000 and 5000 cal BP. (3) soil d13C indicates a forest expansion over savannas areas in Roraima (north), Mato Grosso and Rondonia (southwest), during the Holocene. (4) the mid-Holocene (8000- 4000 cal BP) is characterized by repeated occurrences of forest fires, marked by the presence of charcoals in soils and lacustrine sediments. However these different records are not characterized by abrupt transitions at the end of the Middle Holocene in Amazonia. In the Andean records there is a clear north-south shift in the timing of the transition. Analysis of coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model simulations suggest that convection in Amazon basin is directly controlled by insolation leading to an almost linear response of local climate to the global forcing. Differently, in the eastern and south-western regions where the rain is brought by the South American Monsoon, the climate transition appears more abrupt. It may be because the involved climate mechanisms are more complex and depend on Ocean/Atmosphere/Vegetation coupled process (ITCZ position, ZCAS formation, etc.). Tectonic movements or threshold links to

Millennial-scale variability in Holocene aquatic productivity from Burial Lake, Arctic Alaska

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Finkenbinder, Matthew S.; Abbott, Mark B.; Stoner, Joseph S.; Ortiz, Joseph D.; Finney, Bruce P.; Dorfman, Jason M.; Stansell, Nathan D.

2018-05-01

Holocene records of lacustrine primary production are commonly used to reconstruct past changes in environmental and climatic conditions. While several methods exist to infer paleoproductivity trends, few studies to date have applied multiple geochemical indices in the same core sequence from Arctic lakes to evaluate their fidelity and sensitivity to specific climate variables over long (Holocene length) timescales. In this study, we evaluate sub-century to millennial-scale fluctuations in paleoproductivity over the Holocene using geochemical (biogenic opal and sedimentary chlorin) analyses of sediments from Burial Lake in the western Brooks Range, Alaska. Large fluctuations in opal and related proxies occur at millennial timescales over the last 10,000 years. We interpret the changes in opal to result from variability in diatom productivity, which is indirectly mediated by climate primarily through changes in the duration of the ice-free growing season and the availability of limiting nutrients at this oligotrophic, tundra lake. Comparison of the opal and sedimentary chlorin record, which is correlated with TOC, shows contrasting patterns on both short (century to multi-century) and relatively long (millennial) time scales. The concentration of opal far exceeds that of TOC and variations in sediment dry bulk density, driven by changes in the accumulation of opal, are likely responsible in part for the variations in sedimentary chlorin. Further, C/N ratio values indicate a mixed algal-terrestrial source of sedimentary organic matter. This result highlights the complexity in the climatic interpretation of sedimentary chlorin as an index of whole lake production, because the signal is prone to dilution/concentration from opal and also reflects a combination of aquatic and terrestrial production. Time series analysis of the productivity records indicates the presence of a significant ∼1500-yr oscillation in opal concentration, which has been found in North Atlantic

Some aspects of climate variability in the north east Ethiopian ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper presents a review of climate variability in the northeast Ethiopian Highlands, particularly Wollo and Tigray, during the last 10000 years (the Holocene) and an analysis of rainfall variability during the historical period. To date little work has been done on climate reconstruction in Tigray and Wollo, however, ...

Holocene hydrologic variation at Lake Titicaca, Bolivia/Peru, and its relationship to North Atlantic climate variation

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Garland, J.; Ekdahl, E.

2005-10-01

A growing number of sites in the Northern Hemisphere show centennial- to millennial-scale climate variation that has been correlated with change in solar variability or with change in North Atlantic circulation. However, it is unclear how (or whether) these oscillations in the climate system are manifest in the Southern Hemisphere because of a lack of sites with suitably high sampling resolution. In this paper, we reconstruct the lake-level history of Lake Titicaca, using the carbon isotopic content of sedimentary organic matter, to evaluate centennial- to millennial-scale precipitation variation and its phasing relative to sites in the Northern Hemisphere. The pattern and timing of lake-level change in Lake Titicaca is similar to the ice-rafted debris record of Holocene Bond events, demonstrating a possible coupling between precipitation variation on the Altiplano and North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The cold periods of the Holocene Bond events correspond with periods of increased precipitation on the Altiplano. Holocene precipitation variability on the Altiplano is anti-phased with respect to precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon region. More generally, the tropical Andes underwent large changes in precipitation on centennial-to-millennial timescales during the Holocene.

Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) – A systematic review of multi-proxy evidence

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Kaufman, Darrell S.; Axford, Yarrow L.; Henderson, Andrew C.G.; McKay, Nicolas P.; Oswald, W. Wyatt; Saenger, Casey; Anderson, R. Scott; Bailey, Hannah L.; Clegg, Benjamin; Gajewski, Konrad; Hu, Feng Sheng; Jones, Miriam C.; Massa, Charly; Routson, Cody C.; Werner, Al; Wooller, Matthew J.; Yu, Zicheng

2016-01-01

Reconstructing climates of the past relies on a variety of evidence from a large number of sites to capture the varied features of climate and the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. This review summarizes available information from diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas), and it quantifies the primary trends of temperature- and moisture-sensitive records based in part on midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators (compiled in the recently published Arctic Holocene database, and updated here to v2.1). The composite time series from these proxy records are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies to clarify multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends in Holocene climate change. To focus the synthesis, the paleo data are used to frame specific questions that can be addressed with simulations by Earth system models to investigate the causes and dynamics of past and future climate change. This systematic review shows that, during the early Holocene (11.7–8.2 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present (approximate mid-20th-century average), with no clear spatial pattern. Composited pollen, midge and other proxy records average out the variability and show the overall lowest summer and mean-annual temperatures across the study region during the earliest Holocene, followed by warming over the early Holocene. The sparse data available on early Holocene glaciation show that glaciers in southern Alaska were as extensive then as they were during the late Holocene. Early Holocene lake levels were low in interior Alaska, but moisture indicators show pronounced differences across the region. The highest

Holocene environmental changes and climate development in Greenland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engels, Stefan; Helmens, Karin

2010-12-01

The primary aim of this report is to give an overview of the Holocene environmental and climatic changes in Greenland and to describe the development of the periglacial environment during the Holocene. Special emphasis is given to the influence of the ice sheet on its surroundings, both in terms of time (with respect to the response of the biosphere to deglaciation or ice sheet proximity) and in space (through the influence of the ice sheet on the regional climate, more specifically on temperature and aridity). Published records are reviewed, and regional trends are summarized. A range of different natural archives is available for such studies, including ice-core data, marine records, and continental sources of information, including peat profiles and lacustrine records. Because of the high number of lakes in all ice-free areas of Greenland, the lacustrine records offer the opportunity to get a spatial overview of past changes in environment and climate as well. This report focuses on (palaeo-) ecological studies, as it is intended to assemble basic information for future studies on adaptation of the biosphere to changes in climate. There is a bias towards pollen- and macro-remain-based reconstructions of past changes, as these dominate performed palaeoecological studies in Greenland; unfortunately, only a limited number of studies exist that include more modern proxies such as diatoms or chironomids (climate-indicators), but where available in the literature, these have been included. The report starts with an introduction where the current climatic and biological zonation of Greenland is discussed together with an overview of the geology of Greenland (on the full geological timescale) in order to put the following sections in perspective. Chapter 2 discusses the ice sheet history of Greenland from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) onward where special emphasis is given to the spatial variability of deglaciation at the onset of the Holocene. To enhance the

Holocene environmental changes and climate development in Greenland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Engels, Stefan; Helmens, Karin (Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))

2010-12-15

The primary aim of this report is to give an overview of the Holocene environmental and climatic changes in Greenland and to describe the development of the periglacial environment during the Holocene. Special emphasis is given to the influence of the ice sheet on its surroundings, both in terms of time (with respect to the response of the biosphere to deglaciation or ice sheet proximity) and in space (through the influence of the ice sheet on the regional climate, more specifically on temperature and aridity). Published records are reviewed, and regional trends are summarized. A range of different natural archives is available for such studies, including ice-core data, marine records, and continental sources of information, including peat profiles and lacustrine records. Because of the high number of lakes in all ice-free areas of Greenland, the lacustrine records offer the opportunity to get a spatial overview of past changes in environment and climate as well. This report focuses on (palaeo-) ecological studies, as it is intended to assemble basic information for future studies on adaptation of the biosphere to changes in climate. There is a bias towards pollen- and macro-remain-based reconstructions of past changes, as these dominate performed palaeoecological studies in Greenland; unfortunately, only a limited number of studies exist that include more modern proxies such as diatoms or chironomids (climate-indicators), but where available in the literature, these have been included. The report starts with an introduction where the current climatic and biological zonation of Greenland is discussed together with an overview of the geology of Greenland (on the full geological timescale) in order to put the following sections in perspective. Chapter 2 discusses the ice sheet history of Greenland from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) onward where special emphasis is given to the spatial variability of deglaciation at the onset of the Holocene. To enhance the

Holocene climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon region

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wenxiang; Niu, Jie; Ming, Qingzhong; Shi, Zhengtao; Lei, Guoliang; Huang, Linpei; Long, Xian'e.; Chang, Fengqin

2018-05-01

Climatic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon (ASWM) during the Holocene have become a topic of recent studies. It is important to understand the patterns and causes of Holocene climatic changes and their relationship with global changes. Based on the climate proxies and wavelet analysis of Lugu Lake in the ASWM region, the climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the ASWM region during the Holocene have been reconstructed with a high-precision chronology. The results indicate the intensification of ASWM began to increase with Northern Hemisphere low-latitude solar insolation (LSI) and solar activity during the early Holocene, and gradually decreased during the late Holocene, exhibiting an apparent synchrony with numerous records of ASWM region. Meanwhile, an apparent 1000-a quasi-periodic signal is present in the environment proxies, and it demonstrates that the environmental change in the ASWM region has been driven mainly by LSI and solar activity.

Tracking climate variability in the western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene: a multiproxy approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Nieto-Moreno

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Climate variability in the western Mediterranean is reconstructed for the last 4000 yr using marine sediments recovered in the west Algerian-Balearic Basin, near the Alboran Basin. Fluctuations in chemical and mineralogical sediment composition as well as grain size distribution are linked to fluvial-eolian oscillations, changes in redox conditions and paleocurrent intensity. Multivariate analyses allowed us to characterize three main groups of geochemical and mineralogical proxies determining the sedimentary record of this region. These three statistical groups were applied to reconstruct paleoclimate conditions at high resolution during the Late Holocene. An increase in riverine input (fluvial-derived elements – Rb/Al, Ba/Al, REE/Al, Si/Al, Ti/Al, Mg/Al and K/Al ratios, and a decrease in Saharan eolian input (Zr/Al ratio depict the Roman Humid Period and the Little Ice Age, while drier environmental conditions are recognized during the Late Bronze Age-Iron Age, the Dark Ages and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, faster bottom currents and more energetic hydrodynamic conditions for the former periods are evidenced by enhanced sortable silt (10-63 μm and quartz content, and by better oxygenated bottom waters – as reflected by decreasing redox-sensitive elements (V/Al, Cr/Al, Ni/Al and Zn/Al ratios. In contrast, opposite paleoceanographic conditions are distinguished during the latter periods, i.e. the Late Bronze Age-Iron Age, the Dark Ages and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Although no Ba excess was registered, other paleoproductivity indicators (total organic carbon content, Br/Al ratio, and organometallic ligands such as U and Cu display the highest values during the Roman Humid Period, and together with increasing preservation of organic matter, this period exhibits by far the most intense productivity of the last 4000 yr. Fluctuations in detrital input into the basin as the main process managing deposition, reflected by the

Holocene and latest Pleistocene climate and glacier fluctuations in Iceland

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Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.; Axford, Yarrow; Ólafsdóttir, Sædís

2009-10-01

Multiproxy climate records from Iceland document complex changes in terrestrial climate and glacier fluctuations through the Holocene, revealing some coherent patterns of change as well as significant spatial variability. Most studies on the Last Glacial Maximum and subsequent deglaciation reveal a dynamic Iceland Ice Sheet (IIS) that responded abruptly to changes in ocean currents and sea level. The IIS broke up catastrophically around 15 ka as the Polar Front migrated northward and sea level rose. Indications of regional advance or halt of the glaciers are seen in late Alleröd/early Younger Dryas time and again in PreBoreal time. Due to the apparent rise of relative sea level in Iceland during this time, most sites contain evidence for fluctuating, tidewater glacier termini occupying paleo fjords and bays. The time between the end of the Younger Dryas and the Preboreal was characterized by repeated jökulhlaups that eroded glacial deposits. By 10.3 ka, the main ice sheet was in rapid retreat across the highlands of Iceland. The Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) was reached after 8 ka with land temperatures estimated to be 3 °C higher than the 1961-1990 reference, and net precipitation similar to modern. Such temperatures imply largely ice-free conditions across Iceland in the early to mid-Holocene. Several marine and lacustrine sediment climate proxies record substantial summer temperature depression between 8.5 and 8 ka, but no moraines have been detected from that time. Termination of the HTM and onset of Neoglacial cooling took place sometime after 6 ka with increased glacier activity between 4.5 and 4.0 ka, intensifying between 3.0 and 2.5 ka. Although a distinct warming during the Medieval Warm Period is not dramatically apparent in Icelandic records, the interval from ca AD 0 to 1200 is commonly characterized by relative stability with slow rates of change. The literature most commonly describes Little Ice Age moraines (ca AD 1250-1900) as representing the

Quantitative Holocene climatic reconstructions for the lower Yangtze region of China

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Li, Jianyong; Dodson, John; Yan, Hong; Wang, Weiming; Innes, James B.; Zong, Yongqiang; Zhang, Xiaojian; Xu, Qinghai; Ni, Jian; Lu, Fengyan

2018-02-01

Quantitative proxy-based and high-resolution palaeoclimatic datasets are scarce for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River (LYR) basin. This region is in a transitional vegetation zone which is climatologically sensitive; and as a birthplace for prehistorical civilization in China, it is important to understand how palaeoclimatic dynamics played a role in affecting cultural development in the region. We present a pollen-based and regionally-averaged Holocene climatic twin-dataset for mean total annual precipitation (PANN) and mean annual temperature (TANN) covering the last 10,000 years for the LYR region. This is based on the technique of weighted averaging-partial least squares regression to establish robust calibration models for obtaining reliable climatic inferences. The pollen-based reconstructions generally show an early Holocene climatic optimum with both abundant monsoonal rainfall and warm thermal conditions, and a declining pattern of both PANN and TANN values in the middle to late Holocene. The main driving forces behind the Holocene climatic changes in the LYR area are likely summer solar insolation associated with tropical or subtropical macro-scale climatic circulations such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regional multi-proxy comparisons indicate that the Holocene variations in precipitation and temperature for the LYR region display an in-phase relationship with other related proxy records from southern monsoonal China and the Indian monsoon-influenced regions, but are inconsistent with the Holocene moisture or temperature records from northern monsoonal China and the westerly-dominated region in northwestern China. Overall, our comprehensive palaeoclimatic dataset and models may be significant tools for understanding the Holocene Asian monsoonal evolution and for anticipating its future dynamics in eastern Asia.

Effects of late Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic stressors on the vegetation of the Maya highlands

Science.gov (United States)

Franco-Gaviria, F.; Correa-Metrio, A.; Cordero-Oviedo, C.; López-Pérez, M.; Cárdenes-Sandí, G. M.; Romero, F. M.

2018-06-01

Climate variability and human activities have shaped the vegetation communities of the Maya region of southern Mexico and Central America on centennial to millennial timescales. Most research efforts in the region have focused on the lowlands, with relatively little known about the environmental history of the regional highlands. Here we present data from two sediment sequences collected from lakes in the highlands of Chiapas, Mexico. Our aim was to disentangle the relative contributions of climate and human activities in the development of regional vegetation during the late Holocene. The records reveal a long-term trend towards drier conditions with superimposed centennial-scale droughts. A declining moisture trend from 3400 to 1500 cal yr BP is consistent with previously reported southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, whereas periodic droughts were probably a consequence of drivers such as El Niño. These conditions, together with dense human occupation, converted the vegetation from forest to more open systems. According to the paleoecological records, cultural abandonment of the area occurred ca. 1500 cal yr BP, favoring forest recovery that was somewhat limited by low moisture availability. About 600 cal yr BP, wetter conditions promoted the establishment of modern montane cloud forests, which consist of a diverse mixture of temperate and tropical elements. The vegetation types that occupied the study area during the last few millennia have remained within the envelope defined by the modern vegetation mosaic. This finding highlights the importance of microhabitats in the maintenance biodiversity through time, even under scenarios of high climate variability and anthropogenic pressure.

Holocene climatic fluctuations from Lower Brahmaputra flood plain ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

BP which is well-matched with the peak period of the Holocene climatic optimum. However, during ... Warm Period and Little Ice Age (LIA) in this ... The maximum temperature is 30.4 ..... V 2007 Climatic changes during the last 1800 yrs from.

Detrital events and hydroclimate variability in the Romanian Carpathians during the mid-to-late Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Longman, Jack; Ersek, Vasile; Veres, Daniel; Salzmann, Ulrich

2017-07-01

The Romanian Carpathians are located at the confluence of three major atmospheric pressure fields: the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Siberian. Despite its importance for understanding past human impact and climate change, high-resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of Holocene hydroclimate variability, and in particular records of extreme precipitation events in the area, are rare. Here we present a 7500-year-long high-resolution record of past climatic change and human impact recorded in a peatbog from the Southern Carpathians, integrating palynological, geochemical and sedimentological proxies. Natural climate fluctuations appear to be dominant until 4500 years before present (yr BP), followed by increasing importance of human impact. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses document regular minerogenic deposition within the bog, linked to periods of high precipitation. Such minerogenic depositional events began 4000 yr BP, with increased depositional rates during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and during periods of societal upheaval (e.g. the Roman conquest of Dacia). The timing of minerogenic events appears to indicate a teleconnection between major shifts in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hydroclimate variability in southeastern Europe, with increased minerogenic deposition correlating to low NAO index values. By linking the minerogenic deposition to precipitation variability, we state that this link persists throughout the mid-to-late Holocene.

Holocene climate aridification trend and human impact interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale climate fluctuations from a new sedimentary record from Padul (Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula)

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos-Román, María J.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Camuera, Jon; García-Alix, Antonio; Anderson, R. Scott; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Carrión, José S.

2018-01-01

Holocene centennial-scale paleoenvironmental variability has been described in a multiproxy analysis (i.e., lithology, geochemistry, macrofossil, and microfossil analyses) of a paleoecological record from the Padul Basin in Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula. This sequence covers a relevant time interval hitherto unreported in the studies of the Padul sedimentary sequence. The ˜ 4700-year record has preserved proxies of climate variability, with vegetation, lake levels, and sedimentological change during the Holocene in one of the most unique and southernmost wetlands in Europe. The progressive middle and late Holocene trend toward arid conditions identified by numerous authors in the western Mediterranean region, mostly related to a decrease in summer insolation, is also documented in this record; here it is also superimposed by centennial-scale variability in humidity. In turn, this record shows centennial-scale climate oscillations in temperature that correlate with well-known climatic events during the late Holocene in the western Mediterranean region, synchronous with variability in solar and atmospheric dynamics. The multiproxy Padul record first shows a transition from a relatively humid middle Holocene in the western Mediterranean region to more aridity from ˜ 4700 to ˜ 2800 cal yr BP. A relatively warm and humid period occurred between ˜ 2600 and ˜ 1600 cal yr BP, coinciding with persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions and the historic Iberian-Roman Humid Period. Enhanced arid conditions, co-occurring with overall positive NAO conditions and increasing solar activity, are observed between ˜ 1550 and ˜ 450 cal yr BP (˜ 400 to ˜ 1400 CE) and colder and warmer conditions occurred during the Dark Ages and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), respectively. Slightly wetter conditions took place during the end of the MCA and the first part of the Little Ice Age, which could be related to a change towards negative NAO conditions

Evidence for a possible modern and mid-Holocene solar influence on climate from Lake Titicaca, South America

Science.gov (United States)

Theissen, K. M.; Dunbar, R. B.

2005-12-01

In tropical regions, there are few paleoclimate archives with the necessary resolution to investigate climate variability at interannual-to-decadal timescales prior to the onset of the instrumental record. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented in the instrumental record and the importance of the precessional forcing of millennial variability has been established in studies of tropical paleoclimate records. In contrast, decade-to-century variability is still poorly understood. Here, we examine interannual to decadal variability in the northern Altiplano of South America using digital image analysis of a floating interval of varved sediments of middle Holocene age (~6160-6310 yr BP) from Lake Titicaca. Multi-taper method (MTM) and wavelet frequency-domain analyses were performed on a time series generated from a gray-scaled digital image of the mm-thick laminations. Our results indicate significant power at a decadal periodicity (10-12 years) associated with the Schwabe cycle of solar activity. Frequency-domain analysis also indicates power at 2-2.5 year periodicities associated with ENSO. Similarly, spectral analysis of a 75 year instrumental record of Titicaca lake level shows significant power at both solar and ENSO periodicities. Although both of the examined records are short, our results imply that during both the mid-Holocene and modern times, solar and ENSO variability may have contributed to high frequency climate fluctuations over the northern Altiplano. We suspect that solar influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation features may account for the decadal variability in the mid-Holocene and present-day water balance of the Altiplano.

Variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene and possible forcing mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Fuzhi; Ma, Chunmei; Zhu, Cheng; Lu, Huayu; Zhang, Xiaojian; Huang, Kangyou; Guo, Tianhong; Li, Kaifeng; Li, Lan; Li, Bing; Zhang, Wenqing

2018-03-01

Projecting how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall will change with global warming is essential for human sustainability. Reconstructing Holocene climate can provide critical insight into its forcing and future variability. However, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene summer precipitation are lacking for tropical and subtropical China, which is the core region of the EASM influence. Here we present high-resolution annual and summer rainfall reconstructions covering the whole Holocene based on the pollen record at Xinjie site from the lower Yangtze region. Summer rainfall was less seasonal and 30% higher than modern values at 10-6 cal kyr BP and gradually declined thereafter, which broadly followed the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Over the last two millennia, however, the summer rainfall has deviated from the downward trend of summer insolation. We argue that greenhouse gas forcing might have offset summer insolation forcing and contributed to the late Holocene rainfall anomaly, which is supported by the TraCE-21 ka transient simulation. Besides, tropical sea-surface temperatures could modulate summer rainfall by affecting evaporation of seawater. The rainfall pattern concurs with stalagmite and other proxy records from southern China but differs from mid-Holocene rainfall maximum recorded in arid/semiarid northern China. Summer rainfall in northern China was strongly suppressed by high-northern-latitude ice volume forcing during the early Holocene in spite of high summer insolation. In addition, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation might be responsible for droughts of northern China and floods of southern China during the late Holocene. Furthermore, quantitative rainfall reconstructions indicate that the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations underestimate the magnitude of Holocene precipitation changes. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the Holocene EASM precipitation and potential forcing

Holocene climate variability in arid Central Asia as revealed from high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analyses of laminated sediments from Lake Chatyr Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

Science.gov (United States)

Lauterbach, S.; Plessen, B.; Dulski, P.; Mingram, J.; Prasad, S.

2013-12-01

A pronounced trend from a predominantly wet climate during the early Holocene towards significantly drier conditions since the mid-Holocene, mainly attributed to the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), is documented in numerous palaeoclimate records from the monsoon-influenced parts of Asia, e.g. the Tibetan Plateau and north- and southeastern China. In contrast, climate in the adjacent regions of mid-latitude arid Central Asia, located north and northwest of the Tibetan Plateau, is supposed to have been characterized by pronounced dry conditions during the early Holocene, wet conditions during the mid-Holocene and a rather moderate drying during the late Holocene, which is mainly attributed to the complex interplay between the mid-latitude Westerlies and the ASM. However, although mid-latitude Central Asia thus might represent a key region for the understanding of teleconnections between the ASM system and the Westerlies, knowledge about past climate development in this region is still ambiguous due to the limited number of high-resolution palaeoclimate records. Hence, new well-dated and highly resolved palaeoclimate records from this region are expected to provide important information about spatio-temporal changes in the regional interplay between Westerlies and ASM and thus aid the understanding of global climate teleconnections. As a part of the project CADY (Central Asian Climate Dynamics), aiming at reconstructing past climatic and hydrological variability in Central Asia, a sediment core of about 6.25 m length has been recovered from alpine Lake Chatyr Kol (40°36' N, 75°14' E, 3530 m a. s. l., surface area ~170 km2, maximum depth ~20 m), located in the Central Tian Shan of Kyrgyzstan. Sediment microfacies analysis on large-scale petrographic thin sections reveals continuously sub-mm scale laminated sediments throughout the record except for the uppermost ca. 60 cm. Microsedimentological characterization of these laminae, which are most probably

Holocene vegetation and climate changes in the central Mediterranean inferred from a high-resolution marine pollen record (Adriatic Sea

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N. Combourieu-Nebout

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The high-resolution multiproxy study of the Adriatic marine core MD 90-917 provides new insights to reconstruct vegetation and regional climate changes over the southcentral Mediterranean during the Younger Dryas (YD and Holocene. Pollen records show the rapid forest colonization of the Italian and Balkan borderlands and the gradual installation of the Mediterranean association during the Holocene. Quantitative estimates based on pollen data provide Holocene precipitations and temperatures in the Adriatic Sea using a multi-method approach. Clay mineral ratios from the same core reflect the relative contributions of riverine (illite and smectite and eolian (kaolinite contributions to the site, and thus act as an additional proxy with which to evaluate precipitation changes in the Holocene. Vegetation climate reconstructions show the response to the Preboreal oscillation (PBO, most likely driven by changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation, which is linked to increasing river inputs from Adriatic rivers recorded by increase in clay mineral contribution to marine sediments. Pollen-inferred temperature declines during the early–mid Holocene, then increases during the mid–late Holocene, similar to southwestern Mediterranean climatic patterns during the Holocene. Several short vegetation and climatic events appear in the record, indicating the sensitivity of vegetation in the region to millennial-scale variability. Reconstructed summer precipitation shows a regional maximum (170–200 mm between 8000 and 7000 similar to the general pattern across southern Europe. Two important shifts in vegetation occur at 7700 cal yr BP (calendar years before present and between 7500 and 7000 cal yr BP and are correlated with increased river inputs around the Adriatic Basin respectively from the northern (7700 event and from the central Adriatic borderlands (7500–7000 event. During the mid-Holocene, the wet summers lead to permanent moisture all year

Holocene climate aridification trend and human impact interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale climate fluctuations from a new sedimentary record from Padul (Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. J. Ramos-Román

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Holocene centennial-scale paleoenvironmental variability has been described in a multiproxy analysis (i.e., lithology, geochemistry, macrofossil, and microfossil analyses of a paleoecological record from the Padul Basin in Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula. This sequence covers a relevant time interval hitherto unreported in the studies of the Padul sedimentary sequence. The  ∼  4700-year record has preserved proxies of climate variability, with vegetation, lake levels, and sedimentological change during the Holocene in one of the most unique and southernmost wetlands in Europe. The progressive middle and late Holocene trend toward arid conditions identified by numerous authors in the western Mediterranean region, mostly related to a decrease in summer insolation, is also documented in this record; here it is also superimposed by centennial-scale variability in humidity. In turn, this record shows centennial-scale climate oscillations in temperature that correlate with well-known climatic events during the late Holocene in the western Mediterranean region, synchronous with variability in solar and atmospheric dynamics. The multiproxy Padul record first shows a transition from a relatively humid middle Holocene in the western Mediterranean region to more aridity from  ∼  4700 to  ∼  2800 cal yr BP. A relatively warm and humid period occurred between  ∼  2600 and  ∼  1600 cal yr BP, coinciding with persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO conditions and the historic Iberian–Roman Humid Period. Enhanced arid conditions, co-occurring with overall positive NAO conditions and increasing solar activity, are observed between  ∼  1550 and  ∼  450 cal yr BP (∼  400 to  ∼  1400 CE and colder and warmer conditions occurred during the Dark Ages and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, respectively. Slightly wetter conditions took place during the end of

Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Margaret; Douglas, Christine; Cole, K.L.; Winkler, Marge; Flaknes, Robyn

2000-01-01

We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is

ENSO related decadal scale climate variability from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brijker, J.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Bickert, T.; Kroon, D.

2006-01-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that affects socio-economical welfare in vast areas in the world. A continuous record of Holocene ENSO related climate variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm pool (IPWP) is constructed on the basis of stable oxygen isotopes in shells of

Millennial-scale variability in the local radiocarbon reservoir age of south Florida during the Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Toth, Lauren T.; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Ashe, Erica; Richey, Julie N.

2017-01-01

A growing body of research suggests that the marine environments of south Florida provide a critical link between the tropical and high-latitude Atlantic. Changes in the characteristics of water masses off south Florida may therefore have important implications for our understanding of climatic and oceanographic variability over a broad spatial scale; however, the sources of variability within this oceanic corridor remain poorly understood. Measurements of ΔR, the local offset of the radiocarbon reservoir age, from shallow-water marine environments can serve as a powerful tracer of water-mass sources that can be used to reconstruct variability in local-to regional-scale oceanography and hydrology. We combined radiocarbon and U-series measurements of Holocene-aged corals from the shallow-water environments of the Florida Keys reef tract (FKRT) with robust statistical modeling to quantify the millennial-scale variability in ΔR at locations with (“nearshore”) and without (“open ocean”) substantial terrestrial influence. Our reconstructions demonstrate that there was significant spatial and temporal variability in ΔR on the FKRT during the Holocene. Whereas ΔR was similar throughout the region after ∼4000 years ago, nearshore ΔR was significantly higher than in the open ocean during the middle Holocene. We suggest that the elevated nearshore ΔR from ∼8000 to 5000 years ago was most likely the result of greater groundwater influence associated with lower sea level at this time. In the open ocean, which would have been isolated from the influence of groundwater, ΔR was lowest ∼7000 years ago, and was highest ∼3000 years ago. We evaluated our open-ocean model of ΔR variability against records of local-to regional-scale oceanography and conclude that local upwelling was not a significant driver of open-ocean radiocarbon variability in this region. Instead, the millennial-scale trends in open-ocean ΔR were more likely a result of broader

A Geochemical and Sedimentary Record of High Southern Latitude Holocene Climate Evolution from Lago Fagnano, Tierra del Fuego

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moy, C M; Dunbar, R B; Guilderson, T P; Waldmann, N; Mucciarone, D A; Recasens, C; Austin, J A; Anselmetti, F S

2010-11-19

Situated at the southern margin of the hemispheric westerly wind belt and immediately north of the Antarctic Polar Frontal zone, Tierra del Fuego is well-positioned to monitor coupled changes in the ocean-atmosphere system of the high southern latitudes. Here we describe a Holocene paleoclimate record from sediment cores obtained from Lago Fagnano, a large lake in southern Tierra del Fuego at 55{sup o}S, to investigate past changes in climate related to these two important features of the global climate system. We use an AMS radiocarbon chronology for the last 8,000 years based on pollen concentrates, thereby avoiding contamination from bedrock-derived lignite. Our chronology is consistent with a tephrochronologic age date for deposits from the middle Holocene Volcan Hudson eruption. Combining bulk organic isotopic ({delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 15}N) and elemental (C and N) parameters with physical sediment properties allow us to better understand sediment provenance and transport mechanisms and to interpret Holocene climate and tectonic change during the last 8,000 years. Co-variability and long-term trends in C/N ratio, carbon accumulation rate, and magnetic susceptibility reflect an overall Holocene increase in the delivery of terrestrial organic and lithogenic material to the deep eastern basin. We attribute this variability to westerly wind-derived precipitation. Increased wind strength and precipitation in the late Holocene drives the Nothofagus forest eastward and enhances run-off and terrigenous inputs to the lake. Superimposed on the long-term trend are a series of abrupt 9 negative departures in C/N ratio, which constrain the presence of seismically-driven mass flow events in the record. We identify an increase in bulk {delta}{sup 13}C between 7,000 and 5,000 cal yr BP that we attribute to enhanced aquatic productivity driven by warmer summer temperatures. The Lago Fagnano {delta}{sup 13}C record shows similarities with Holocene records of sea surface

Late-Holocene environment and climatic changes in Ameralik Fjord, southwest Greenland: evidence from the sedimentary record

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Henrik S.; Jensen, Karin G.; Kuijpers, Antoon

2006-01-01

  Sedimentological and geochemical (XRF) data together with information from diatom and benthic foraminifera records of a 3.5 m long gravity core from Ameralik fjord, southern West Greenland, is used for reconstructing late Holocene environmental changes in this area. The changes are linked...... to large-scale North Atlantic ocean and climate variability. AMS 14C-dating of benthic foraminifera indicates that the sediment core covers the last 4400 years and may include the termination of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). The late HTM (4.4-3.2 ka BP) is characterized by high accumulation rates...

A 13,500 Year Record of Holocene Climate, Fire and Vegetation from Swan Lake, Idaho, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, D.; Anderson, L.; Miller, D. M.; Rosario, J. J.; Starratt, S.; McGeehin, J. P.; Bright, J. E.

2015-12-01

Modern climate dynamics in the western US are largely determined by a combination of two factors: 1) the strength and position of midlatitude pressure systems, which, in turn, are responsible for the generation and trajectory of winter storms, and 2) the strength of the North America Monsoon (NAM) which brings summer precipitation northward in response to northern hemisphere warming. Paleoclimate records from the Great Basin of the western US suggest some coherence in the timing of major climatic shifts during the Holocene. However, knowledge of the timing and magnitude of these changes at local scales, which can help explain the relative contribution of midlatitude winter storms vs. NAM, is lacking in many places. Here we present new data that constrain the timing and magnitude of late glacial and Holocene climate variability in the northeastern Great Basin, provide insight into past spatial variability of precipitation patterns in the western US, and improve our understanding of regional scale influences on Great Basin climate. In 2011, a 7.65 m sediment core was raised from Swan Lake, a small wetland located in southeastern Idaho that was formed in the spillway channel created by the catastrophic flooding of Lake Bonneville ~18 ka BP. Pollen, charcoal, clumped isotope, diatom, ostracod, and sedimentological data are used to reconstruct vegetation, fire history, and lake level/groundwater flux over the last 13,500 years. Age control is provided by 19 AMS radiocarbon determinations, which are reported as thousands of calibrated years before present (ka BP). This effort builds on earlier work by Bright (1966) who reported on pollen, macrofossils, and sediment type from Swan Lake. Our data suggest cool and wet conditions prevailed until around 12.3 ka BP, after which a drying trend begins. The early Holocene was marked by a warmer, drier climate, which persisted until around 6.2 ka BP. Moister conditions after 6.2 ka BP likely resulted from a combination of enhanced

Biomarker records of Holocene climate variations in Asian interior

Science.gov (United States)

Song, M.; Liu, Z.; Liu, W.; Zhao, C.; Li, S.; He, Y.

2012-12-01

Understanding Holocene climate fluctuation may provide clues to projection of future climate change. Lake sediments in the arid central Asia (ACA), as an archive of past climate information, keep attracting considerable interest. We have retrieved several sediment cores from Lake Manas, an endorheic lake in Zunggar desert, Xinjiang Province, China. Biomarker proxies including alkenone Uk'37, %C37:4 and C37 concentration (C37 Conc), and physical proxies including density and magnetic susceptibility (MS) have been analyzed. We have found substantial climatic and environmental changes during the late Holocene. Density, MS and Uk'37 values are high during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and C37 Conc is very low. During the Little Ice Age, density and MS decrease, Uk'37 values drop to near 0.1, C37 Conc is increased by 2 to 3 magnitude. Thus, warm and dry conditions dominated MWP while cold and wet conditions dominated LIA, a typical "Westerly" pattern which is opposite to the hydrological variation in Asian monsoonal regions. Biomarker records' correlation with solar irradiance (SI), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the 1000year ACA Moisture Index (ACAM), and the North Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) suggests SI as one of the forcing factor on temperature fluctuation and cold and wet LIA possibly resulting from westerly-jet shift, negative NAO oscillation and the lower evaporation induced by the decrease of temperature. Biomarker records for the whole Holocene will be also presented.

Late-Holocene environment and climatic changes in Ameralik Fjord, southwest Greenland: evidence from the sedimentary record

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Henrik S.; Jensen, Karin G.; Kuijpers, Antoon

2006-01-01

  Sedimentological and geochemical (XRF) data together with information from diatom and benthic foraminifera records of a 3.5 m long gravity core from Ameralik fjord, southern West Greenland, is used for reconstructing late Holocene environmental changes in this area. The changes are linked...... to large-scale North Atlantic ocean and climate variability. AMS 14C-dating of benthic foraminifera indicates that the sediment core covers the last 4400 years and may include the termination of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). The late HTM (4.4-3.2 ka BP) is characterized by high accumulation rates...... conditions were further characterised by limited sea ice probably related to a mild and relatively windy winter climate. After 3.2 ka BP lower fine-grained sedimentation rates, but a larger input from sea-ice rafted or aeolian coarse material prevailed. This can be related to colder atmospheric conditions...

Holocene fluctuations in human population demonstrate repeated links to food production and climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Bevan, Andrew; Colledge, Sue; Fuller, Dorian; Fyfe, Ralph; Shennan, Stephen; Stevens, Chris

2017-12-05

We consider the long-term relationship between human demography, food production, and Holocene climate via an archaeological radiocarbon date series of unprecedented sampling density and detail. There is striking consistency in the inferred human population dynamics across different regions of Britain and Ireland during the middle and later Holocene. Major cross-regional population downturns in population coincide with episodes of more abrupt change in North Atlantic climate and witness societal responses in food procurement as visible in directly dated plants and animals, often with moves toward hardier cereals, increased pastoralism, and/or gathered resources. For the Neolithic, this evidence questions existing models of wholly endogenous demographic boom-bust. For the wider Holocene, it demonstrates that climate-related disruptions have been quasi-periodic drivers of societal and subsistence change. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

North Atlantic-Fennoscandian Holocene climate trends and mechanisms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sejrup, H.P.; Seppä, H.; McKay, N.; Kaufman, D.S.; Geirsdottir, A.; de Vernal, A.; Renssen, H.; Husum, K.; Jennings, A.; Andrews, J.T.

2016-01-01

To investigate the mechanisms behind Holocene regional climate trends from north of 58°N in the North Atlantic-Fennoscandian region Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed and a temperature anomaly stack produced from 81 proxy derived summer temperature time series from 74 sites. The PC

Climate variability during the deglaciation and Holocene in a high-altitude alpine lake deduced from the sedimentary record from Laguna Seca, Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Camuera, Jon; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; José Ramos-Román, María; García-Alix, Antonio; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco; Anderson, R. Scott

2017-04-01

High-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF), magnetic susceptibility (MS), color and lithological analyses have been carried out on a 3.6 m-long sediment core from Laguna Seca, a high-elevation dry lake from Sierra Nevada mountain range, southern Spain. This is the longest sedimentary record retrieved from an alpine lake in southern Iberian Peninsula. Besides, alpine lakes are very sensitive environments to climate changes and previous studies showed that Laguna Seca could provide an excellent record to identify millennial-scale climate variations during deglaciation and the whole Holocene. XRF analyses, in particular high calcium and low K/Ca ratios, show aridity phases, very well represented during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Younger Dryas (YD). Arid events are also shown at ca. 8.1 ka BP, ca. 4.4 ka BP and the latest Holocene. On the other hand, negative values in calcium and positive values in K/Ca appear in the Bølling-Allerød (BA) and during the early Holocene until ca. 6 ka BP, indicating more humidity and higher run-off. A progressive aridification trend is also observed in the Holocene, changing from more humid conditions during the early Holocene to more aridity during the late Holocene.

Timing, cause and consequences of mid-Holocene climate transition in the Arabian Sea

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Saraswat, R.; Naik, Dinesh K.; Nigam, R.; Gaur, A.S.

-50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon 51, 1111-1150. Roberts, N., Brayshaw, D., Kuzucuoglu, C., Perez, R., Sadori, L., 2011. The mid-Holocene climatic transition in the Mediterranean: Causes and consequences. The Holocene 21, 3-13. Ruddiman, W.F., Ellis, E...

Late-glacial and Holocene Vegetation and Climate Variability, Including Major Droughts, in the Sky Lakes Region of Southeastern New York State

Science.gov (United States)

Menking, Kirsten M.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Anderson, Roger Y.

2012-01-01

Sediment cores from Lakes Minnewaska and Mohonk in the Shawangunk Mountains of southeastern New York were analyzed for pollen, plantmacrofossils, macroscopic charcoal, organic carbon content, carbon isotopic composition, carbon/nitrogen ratio, and lithologic changes to determine the vegetation and landscape history of the greater Catskill Mountain region since deglaciation. Pollen stratigraphy generally matches the New England pollen zones identified by Deevey (1939) and Davis (1969), with boreal genera (Picea, Abies) present during the late Pleistocene yielding to a mixed Pinus, Quercus and Tsuga forest in the early Holocene. Lake Minnewaska sediments record the Younger Dryas and possibly the 8.2 cal kyr BP climatic events in pollen and sediment chemistry along with an 1400 cal yr interval of wet conditions (increasing Tsuga and declining Quercus) centered about 6400 cal yr BP. BothMinnewaska andMohonk reveal a protracted drought interval in themiddle Holocene, 5700-4100 cal yr BP, during which Pinus rigida colonized the watershed, lake levels fell, and frequent fires led to enhanced hillslope erosion. Together, the records show at least three wet-dry cycles throughout the Holocene and both similarities and differences to climate records in New England and central New York. Drought intervals raise concerns for water resources in the New York City metropolitan area and may reflect a combination of enhanced La Niña, negative phase NAO, and positive phase PNA climatic patterns and/or northward shifts of storm tracks.

Testing the Millennial-Scale Holocene Solar-Climate Connection in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

Science.gov (United States)

Khider, D.; Emile-Geay, J.; McKay, N.; Jackson, C. S.; Routson, C.

2016-12-01

The existence of 1000 and 2500-year periodicities found in reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) and a number of Holocene climate records has led to the hypothesis of a causal relationship. However, attributing Holocene millennial-scale variability to solar forcing requires a mechanism by which small changes in total irradiance can influence a global climate response. One possible amplifier within the climate system is the ocean. If this is the case, then we need to know more about where and how this may be occurring. On the other hand, the similarity in spectral peaks could be merely coincidental, and this should be made apparent by a lack of coherence in how that power and phasing are distributed in time and space. The plausibility of the solar forcing hypothesis is assessed through a Bayesian model of the age uncertainties affecting marine sedimentary records that is propagated through spectral analysis of the climate and forcing signals at key frequencies. Preliminary work on Mg/Ca and alkenone records from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool suggests that despite large uncertainties in the location of the spectral peaks within each individual record arising from age model uncertainty, sea surface variability on timescales of 1025±36 years and 2427±133 years (±standard error of the mean of the median periodicity in each record) are present in at least 95% and 70% of the ensemble spectra, respectively. However, we find a long phase delay between the peak in forcing and the maximum response in at least one of the records, challenging the solar forcing hypothesis and requiring further investigation between low- and high-latitude signals. Remarkably, all records suggest a periodicity near 1470±85 years, reminiscent of the cycles characteristic of Marine Isotope Stage 3; these cycles are absent from existing records of TSI, further questioning the millennial solar-climate connection.

Molecules in the mud: Combining ancient DNA and lipid biomarkers to reconstruct vegetation response to climate variability during the Last Interglacial and the Holocene on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Crump, S. E.; Sepúlveda, J.; Bunce, M.; Miller, G. H.

2017-12-01

Modern ecological studies are revealing that the "greening" of the Arctic, resulting from a poleward shift in woody vegetation ranges, is already underway. The increasing abundance of shrubs in tundra ecosystems plays an important role in the global climate system through multiple positive feedbacks, yet uncertainty in future predictions of terrestrial vegetation means that climate models are likely not capturing these feedbacks accurately. Recently developed molecular techniques for reconstructing past vegetation and climate allow for a closer look at the paleo-record in order to improve our understanding of tundra community responses to climate variability; our current research focus is to apply these tools to both Last Interglacial and Holocene warm times. Here we present initial results from a small lake on southern Baffin Island spanning the last 7.2 ka. We reconstruct climate with both bulk geochemical and biomarker proxies, primarily using biogenic silica and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) as temperature indicators. We assess shifts in plant community using multivariate analysis of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding data. This combination of approaches reveals that the vegetation community has responded sensitively to early Holocene warmth, Neoglacial cooling, and possibly modern anthropogenic warming. To our knowledge, this represents the first combination of a quantitative, biomarker-based climate reconstruction with a sedaDNA-based paleoecological reconstruction, and offers a glimpse at the potential of these molecular techniques used in tandem.

Anticyclonic atmospheric circulation as an analogue for the warm and dry mid-Holocene summer climate in central Scandinavia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Antonsson

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Climate reconstructions from central Scandinavia suggest that annual and summer temperatures were rising during the early Holocene and reached their maximum after 8000 cal yr BP. The period with highest temperatures was characterized by increasingly low lake-levels and dry climate, with driest and warmest conditions at about 7000 to 5000 cal yr BP. We compare the reconstructed climate pattern with simulations of a climate model for the last 9000 years and show that the model, which is predominantly driven by solar insolation patterns, suggests less prominent mid-Holocene dry and warm period in Scandinavia than the reconstructions. As an additional explanation for the reconstructed climate, we argue that the trend from the moist early Holocene towards dry and warm mid-Holocene was caused by a changing atmospheric circulation pattern with a mid-Holocene dominance of summer-time anticyclonic circulation. An extreme case of the anticyclonic conditions is the persistent blocking high, an atmospheric pressure pattern that at present often causes long spells of particularly dry and warm summer weather, or "Indian summers". The argument is tested with daily instrumental temperature and precipitation records in central Sweden and an objective circulation classification based on surface air pressure over the period 1900–2002. We conclude that the differences between the precipitation and temperature climates under anticyclonic and non-anticyclonic conditions are significant. Further, warm and dry combination, as indicated by mid-Holocene reconstructions, is a typical pattern under anticyclonic conditions. These results indicate that the presented hypothesis for the mid-Holocene climate is likely valid.

Assessing the potential of Southern Caribbean corals for reconstructions of Holocene temperature variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giry, Cyril; Felis, Thomas; Scheffers, Sander; Fensterer, Claudia

2010-01-01

We present a 40-year long monthly resolved Sr/Ca record from a fossil Diploria strigosa coral from Bonaire (Southern Caribbean Sea) dated with U/Th at 2.35 ka before present (BP). Secondary modifiers of this sea surface temperature (SST) proxy in annually-banded corals such as diagenetic alteration of the skeleton and skeletal growth-rate are investigated. Extensive diagenetic investigations reveal that this fossil coral skeleton is pristine which is further supported by clear annual cycles in the coral Sr/Ca record. No significant correlation between annual growth rate and Sr/Ca is observed, suggesting that the Sr/Ca record is not affected by coral growth. Therefore, we conclude that the observed interannual Sr/Ca variability was influenced by ambient SST variability. Spectral analysis of the annual mean Sr/Ca record reveals a dominant frequency centred at 6-7 years that is not associated with changes of the annual growth rate. The first monthly resolved coral Sr/Ca record from the Southern Caribbean Sea for preindustrial time suggests that fossil corals from Bonaire are suitable tools for reconstructing past SST variability. Coastal deposits on Bonaire provide abundant fossil D. strigosa colonies of Holocene age that can be accurately dated and used to reconstruct climate variability. Comparisons of long monthly resolved Sr/Ca records from multiple fossil corals will provide a mean to estimate seasonality and interannual to interdecadal SST variability of the Southern Caribbean Sea during the Holocene.

Aquatic ecosystem responses to Holocene climate change and biome development in boreal, central Asia

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Mackay, Anson W.; Bezrukova, Elena V.; Leng, Melanie J.; Meaney, Miriam; Nunes, Ana; Piotrowska, Natalia; Self, Angela; Shchetnikov, Alexander; Shilland, Ewan; Tarasov, Pavel; Wang, Luo; White, Dustin

2012-05-01

Boreal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, and severe ecological impacts in the near future are virtually certain to occur. We undertook a multiproxy study on an alpine lake (ESM-1) at the modern tree-line in boreal, southern Siberia. Steppe and tundra biomes were extensive in eastern Sayan landscapes during the early Holocene. Boreal forest quickly expanded by 9.1 ka BP, and dominated the landscape until c 0.7 ka BP, when the greatest period of compositional turnover occurred. At this time, alpine meadow landscape expanded and Picea obovata colonised new habitats along river valleys and lake shorelines, because of prevailing cool, moist conditions. During the early Holocene, chironomid assemblages were dominated by cold stenotherms. Diatoms for much of the Holocene were dominated by alkaliphilous, fragilarioid taxa, up until 0.2 ka BP, when epiphytic species expanded, indicative of increased habitat availability. C/N mass ratios ranged between 9.5 and 13.5 (11.1-15.8 C/N atomic ratios), indicative of algal communities dominating organic matter contributions to bottom sediments with small, persistent contributions from vascular plants. However, δ13C values increased steadily from -34.9‰ during the early Holocene (9.3 ka BP) to -24.8‰ by 0.6 ka BP. This large shift in magnitude may be due to a number of factors, including increasing within-lake productivity, increasing disequilibrium between the isotopic balance of the lake with the atmosphere as the lake became isotopically ‘mature’, and declining soil respiration linked to small, but distinct retreat in forest biomes. The influence of climatic variables on landscape vegetation was assessed using redundancy analysis (RDA), a linear, direct ordination technique. Changes in July insolation at 60 °N significantly explained over one-fifth of the variation in species composition, while changes in estimates of northern hemisphere temperature and ice-rafted debris events in the North Atlantic

Volcanic influence on centennial to millennial Holocene Greenland temperature change.

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Kobashi, Takuro; Menviel, Laurie; Jeltsch-Thömmes, Aurich; Vinther, Bo M; Box, Jason E; Muscheler, Raimund; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Pfister, Patrik L; Döring, Michael; Leuenberger, Markus; Wanner, Heinz; Ohmura, Atsumu

2017-05-03

Solar variability has been hypothesized to be a major driver of North Atlantic millennial-scale climate variations through the Holocene along with orbitally induced insolation change. However, another important climate driver, volcanic forcing has generally been underestimated prior to the past 2,500 years partly owing to the lack of proper proxy temperature records. Here, we reconstruct seasonally unbiased and physically constrained Greenland Summit temperatures over the Holocene using argon and nitrogen isotopes within trapped air in a Greenland ice core (GISP2). We show that a series of volcanic eruptions through the Holocene played an important role in driving centennial to millennial-scale temperature changes in Greenland. The reconstructed Greenland temperature exhibits significant millennial correlations with K + and Na + ions in the GISP2 ice core (proxies for atmospheric circulation patterns), and δ 18 O of Oman and Chinese Dongge cave stalagmites (proxies for monsoon activity), indicating that the reconstructed temperature contains hemispheric signals. Climate model simulations forced with the volcanic forcing further suggest that a series of large volcanic eruptions induced hemispheric-wide centennial to millennial-scale variability through ocean/sea-ice feedbacks. Therefore, we conclude that volcanic activity played a critical role in driving centennial to millennial-scale Holocene temperature variability in Greenland and likely beyond.

Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

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Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

2015-05-01

The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

Subtropical Climate Variability since the Last Glacial Maximum from Speleothem Precipitation Reconstructions in Florida

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Polk, J.; van Beynen, P.; DeLong, K. L.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.

2017-12-01

Teleconnections between the tropical-subtropical regions of the Americas since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), particularly the Mid- to Late-Holocene, and high-resolution proxy records refining climate variability over this period continue to receive increasing attention. Here, we present a high-resolution, precisely dated speleothem record spanning multiple periods of time since the LGM ( 30 ka) for the Florida peninsula. The data indicate that the amount effect plays a significant role in determining the isotopic signal of the speleothem calcite. Collectively, the records indicate distinct differences in climate in the region between the LGM, Mid-Holocene, and Late Holocene, including a progressive shift in ocean composition and precipitation isotopic values through the period, suggesting Florida's sensitivity to regional and global climatic shifts. Comparisons between speleothem δ18O values and Gulf of Mexico marine records reveal a strong connection between the Gulf region and the terrestrial subtropical climate in the Late Holocene, while the North Atlantic's influence is clear in the earlier portions of the record. Warmer sea surface temperatures correspond to enhanced evaporation, leading to more intense atmospheric convection in Florida, and thereby modulating the isotopic composition of rainfall above the cave. These regional signals in climate extend from the subtropics to the tropics, with a clear covariance between the speleothem signal and other proxy records from around the region, as well as global agreement during the LGM period with other records. These latter connections appear to be driven by changes in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and time series analysis of the δ18O values reveals significant multidecadal periodicities in the record, which are evidenced by agreement with the AMV and other multidecadal influences (NAO and PDO) likely having varying influence throughout the period of record. The climate variability

Late Pleistocene and Holocene Hydroclimate Variability in the Tropical Andes from Alpine Lake Sediments, Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela

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Larsen, D. J.; Abbott, M. B.; Polissar, P. J.

2014-12-01

The tropics play a major role in the global hydrologic cycle and changes to tropical rainfall patterns have critical implications for water resources and ecosystem dynamics over large geographic scales. In tropical South America, late Pleistocene and Holocene precipitation variability has been documented in geologic records and associated with numerous external and internal variables, including changes in summer insolation, South American summer monsoon strength, Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, continental moisture recycling, and other climate processes. However, there are few records from the northern hemisphere tropical Americas, a key region for understanding interhemispheric linkages and the drivers of tropical hydroclimate variability. Here, we present a ~13 ka record of coupled hydroclimate and environmental changes from Laguna Brava, a small (~0.07 km2), hydrologically closed lake basin situated at 2400 m asl in the Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela. Sediment cores collected from varying water depths and proximity to shore are placed in a chronologic framework using radiocarbon ages from terrestrial macrofossils, and analyzed for a suite of physical, bulk geochemical, and stable isotopic parameters. Compound specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) measurements of terrestrial plant waxes (long-chain n-alkanes) show a sharp increase in the late Pleistocene, followed by a long-term trend toward more negative values that suggest a ~20‰ decrease in the D/H ratios of South American tropical precipitation during the Holocene. This pattern is consistent in sign and magnitude to other South American precipitation reconstructions from both hemispheres, indicating interhemispheric similarities in tropical hydroclimate variability. Superimposed on this continent-scale trend are changes in moisture balance and environmental conditions in the Venezuelan Andes. We reconstruct these parameters at Laguna Brava at multidecadal and centennial resolution and evaluate this

Holocene temperature variability revealed by brGDGTs in subtropical southwestern China

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Feng, X.; Zhao, C.

2017-12-01

Subtropical areas are important source region of moisture and heat in global climate system. Paleoclimate reconstructions from these regions, especially quantitative records, would not only help to better understand the nature of climate system through time, but also provide important constraining dataset for long-term ecosystem variations in these ecological important areas. To date, quantitative climate records with reliable chronological controls are still limited from terrestrial archives in subtropical areas. Here we present a 50-year-resolution quantitative temperature record throughout the Holocene based on branched GDGTs at a small alpine lake, Tiancai Lake (26°38'E, 99°43'N, 3898 m.a.s.l) in southwestern China. The record is based on a temporal calibration between instrumental mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and brGDGT compounds (GDGT-IIIa, GDGT-IIa', GDGT-IIb, GDGT-Ia and GDGT-Ic). The MAAT was relatively low -0.6 ° between 11 and 7.5 ka, then abruptly increased 1 ° to 4 °until 7 ka. The MAAT was relatively warm 2° between 7 and 1 ka, then decreased to 1° over the last 1 ka. The Middle to Late Holocene was 3 ° warmer than the Early Holocene. The MAAT variation at Lake Tiancai is supported by changes in evergreen oaks and Tsuga from the same sediment core, suggesting that the growth of cold-tolerant forest in place of subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest has been driven by the decrease in MAAT. The early Holocene cold interval revealed by our record and pollen data is different with the chironomid-based summer temperature reconstruction from the same lake, the latter has been driven by summer insolation. This difference suggests that a pronounced winter contribution to the mean annual temperature during the early Holocene, which was probably caused by a low winter insolation, and strengthened by a sparse vegetation cover and influences of winter ice/snow cover in tropical high latitude regions.

Holocene climate variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa

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S. Weldeab

2013-10-01

Full Text Available We established a multi-proxy time series comprising analyses of major elements in bulk sediments, Sr and Nd isotopes, grain size of terrigenous fraction, and δ18O and δ13C in tests of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral from a marine sediment sequence recovered off the Orange River. The records reveal coherent patterns of variability that reflect changes in wind strength, precipitation over the river catchments, and upwelling of cold and nutrient-rich coastal waters off western South Africa. The wettest episode of the Holocene in the winter rainfall zone (WRZ of South Africa occurred during the "Little Ice Age" (700–100 cal years BP most likely in response to a northward shift of the austral westerlies. Wet phases and strengthened coastal water upwellings are companied by a decrease of Agulhas water leakage into the South Atlantic and a reduced dust incursion over Antarctica, as indicated in previous studies. A continuous aridification trend in the WRZ and a weakening of the southern Benguela Upwelling System (BUS between 9000 and 5500 cal years BP parallel with increase of dust deposition over Antarctica and an enhanced leakage of warm Agulhas water into the eastern South Atlantic. The temporal relationship between precipitation changes in the WRZ, the thermal state of the coastal surface water, and leakage of warm water in the South Atlantic, and variation of dust incursion over Antarctica suggests a causal link that most likely was related to latitudinal shifts of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. Our results of the mid-Holocene time interval may serve as an analogue to a possible long-term consequence of the current and future southward shift of the westerlies. Furthermore, warming of the coastal surface water as a result of warm Agulhas water incursion into the southern BUS may affect coastal fog formation.

Reconstructing Holocene climate using a climate model: Model strategy and preliminary results

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Haberkorn, K.; Blender, R.; Lunkeit, F.; Fraedrich, K.

2009-04-01

An Earth system model of intermediate complexity (Planet Simulator; PlaSim) is used to reconstruct Holocene climate based on proxy data. The Planet Simulator is a user friendly general circulation model (GCM) suitable for palaeoclimate research. Its easy handling and the modular structure allow for fast and problem dependent simulations. The spectral model is based on the moist primitive equations conserving momentum, mass, energy and moisture. Besides the atmospheric part, a mixed layer-ocean with sea ice and a land surface with biosphere are included. The present-day climate of PlaSim, based on an AMIP II control-run (T21/10L resolution), shows reasonable agreement with ERA-40 reanalysis data. Combining PlaSim with a socio-technological model (GLUES; DFG priority project INTERDYNAMIK) provides improved knowledge on the shift from hunting-gathering to agropastoral subsistence societies. This is achieved by a data assimilation approach, incorporating proxy time series into PlaSim to initialize palaeoclimate simulations during the Holocene. For this, the following strategy is applied: The sensitivities of the terrestrial PlaSim climate are determined with respect to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Here, the focus is the impact of regionally varying SST both in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The inverse of these sensitivities is used to determine the SST conditions necessary for the nudging of land and coastal proxy climates. Preliminary results indicate the potential, the uncertainty and the limitations of the method.

North American Rocky Mountain Hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

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Finney, B.; Anderson, L.; Berkelhammer, M. B.; Barron, J. A.; Steinman, B. A.; Abbott, M. B.

2015-12-01

A network of western North American lake sediment isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) developed during the past decade provides substantial evidence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere forcing of precipitation variability during the Holocene. We present an overview of the eighteen lake carbonate-δ18O records located in the North American Rocky Mountains with a new compilation of modern lake water isotope measurements to characterize their sensitivity to variations in precipitation-δ18O and fractionation effects by evaporation. Comparative analysis of the carbonate-δ18O records that reflect precipitation isotope (δ18O) values (i.e., precipitation "isometers") indicates a sequence of time-varying in-phase and antiphase patterns between northern and southern regions during the Holocene that provide evidence for a highly non-stationary influence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. We identify a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole, which was sustained for ~2000 years between ~3.5 and 1.5 ka. The dipole contrasts with divergent earlier Holocene patterns and appears to indicate the onset of linkages between northern and tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics as we know them today. These observations are informed by previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O. Further investigation of short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scale patterns are needed to improve our understanding of the processes that 1) drive regional precipitation-δ18O responses to Pacific Ocean-atmosphere variability, and 2) cause varying internal ocean-atmosphere responses to external climate forcing.

Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

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Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

2017-12-01

Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

Understanding north-western Mediterranean climate variability: a multi-proxy and multi-sequence approach based on wavelet analysis.

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Azuara, Julien; Lebreton, Vincent; Jalali, Bassem; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sabatier, Pierre; Dezileau, Laurent; Peyron, Odile; Frigola, Jaime; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie

2017-04-01

Forcings and physical mechanisms underlying Holocene climate variability still remain poorly understood. Comparison of different paleoclimatic reconstructions using spectral analysis allows to investigate their common periodicities and helps to understand the causes of past climate changes. Wavelet analysis applied on several proxy time series from the Atlantic domain already revealed the first key-issues on the origin of Holocene climate variability. However the differences in duration, resolution and variance between the time-series are important issues for comparing paleoclimatic sequences in the frequency domain. This work compiles 7 paleoclimatic proxy records from 4 time-series from the north-western Mediterranean all ranging from 7000 to 1000 yrs cal BP: -pollen and clay mineral contents from the lagoonal sediment core PB06 recovered in southern France, -Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) derived from alkenones, concentration of terrestrial alkanes and their average chain length (ACL) from core KSGC-31_GolHo-1B recovered in the Gulf of Lion inner-shelf, - δ18O record from speleothems recovered in the Asiul Cave in north-western Spain, -grain size record from the deep basin sediment drift core MD99-2343 north of Minorca island. A comparison of their frequency content is proposed using wavelet analysis and cluster analysis of wavelet power spectra. Common cyclicities are assessed using cross-wavelet analysis. In addition, a new algorithm is used in order to propagate the age model errors within wavelet power spectra. Results are consistents with a non-stationnary Holocene climate variability. The Halstatt cycles (2000-2500 years) depicted in many proxies (ACL, errestrial alkanes and SSTs) demonstrate solar activity influence in the north-western Mediterranean climate. Cluster analysis shows that pollen and ACL proxies, both indicating changes in aridity, are clearly distinct from other proxies and share significant common periodicities around 1000 and 600 years

Human responses to Middle Holocene climate change on California's Channel Islands

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Kennett, Douglas J.; Kennett, James P.; Erlandson, Jon M.; Cannariato, Kevin G.

2007-02-01

High-resolution archaeological and paleoenvironmental records from California's Channel Islands provide a unique opportunity to examine potential relationships between climatically induced environmental changes and prehistoric human behavioral responses. Available climate records in western North America (7-3.8 ka) indicate a severe dry interval between 6.3 and 4.8 ka embedded within a generally warm and dry Middle Holocene. Very dry conditions in western North America between 6.3 and 4.8 ka correlate with cold to moderate sea-surface temperatures (SST) along the southern California Coast evident in Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Core 893A/B (Santa Barbara Basin). An episode of inferred high marine productivity between 6.3 and 5.8 ka corresponds with the coldest estimated SSTs of the Middle Holocene, otherwise marked by warm/low productivity marine conditions (7.5-3.8 ka). The impact of this severe aridity on humans was different between the northern and southern Channel Islands, apparently related to degree of island isolation, size and productivity of islands relative to population, fresh water availability, and on-going social relationships between island and continental populations. Northern Channel Islanders seem to have been largely unaffected by this severe arid phase. In contrast, cultural changes on the southern Channel Islands were likely influenced by the climatically induced environmental changes. We suggest that productive marine conditions coupled with a dry terrestrial climate between 6.3 and 5.8 ka stimulated early village development and intensified fishing on the more remote southern islands. Contact with people on the adjacent southern California Coast increased during this time with increased participation in a down-the-line trade network extending into the western Great Basin and central Oregon. Genetic similarities between Middle Holocene burial populations on the southern Channel Islands and modern California Uto-Aztecan populations suggest

Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activity in Languedoc (southern France)

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Azuara, J.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Lebreton, V.; Mazier, F.; Müller, S. D.; Dezileau, L.

2015-12-01

Holocene climate fluctuations and human activity since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to better understand Mediterranean paleoenvironmental changes over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High-resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics over the last 4500 years. Results are compared with climatic, historical and archeological archives. A long-term aridification trend is highlighted during the late Holocene, and three superimposed arid events are recorded at 4600-4300, 2800-2400 and 1300-1100 cal BP. These periods of high-frequency climate variability coincide in time with the rapid climatic events observed in the Atlantic Ocean (Bond et al., 2001). From the Bronze Age (4000 cal BP) to the end of the Iron Age (around 2000 cal BP), the spread of sclerophyllous taxa and loss of forest cover result from anthropogenic impact. Classical Antiquity is characterized by a major reforestation event related to the concentration of rural activity and populations in coastal plains leading to forest recovery in the mountains. A major regional deforestation occurred at the beginning of the High Middle Ages. Around 1000 cal BP, forest cover is minimal while the cover of olive, chestnut and walnut expands in relation to increasing human influence. The present-day vegetation dominated by Mediterranean shrubland and pines has been in existence since the beginning of the 20th century.

Molecular records of climate variability and vegetation response since the Late Pleistocene in the Lake Victoria basin, East Africa

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Berke, M.A.; Johnson, T.C.; Werne, J.P.; Grice, K.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.

2012-01-01

New molecular proxies of temperature and hydrology are helping to constrain tropical climate change and elucidate possible forcing mechanisms during the Holocene. Here, we examine a similar to 14,000 year record of climate variability from Lake Victoria, East Africa, the world's second largest

Impact of a drier Early-Mid-Holocene climate upon Amazonian forests.

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Mayle, Francis E; Power, Mitchell J

2008-05-27

This paper uses a palaeoecological approach to examine the impact of drier climatic conditions of the Early-Mid-Holocene (ca 8000-4000 years ago) upon Amazonia's forests and their fire regimes. Palaeovegetation (pollen data) and palaeofire (charcoal) records are synthesized from 20 sites within the present tropical forest biome, and the underlying causes of any emergent patterns or changes are explored by reference to independent palaeoclimate data and present-day patterns of precipitation, forest cover and fire activity across Amazonia. During the Early-Mid-Holocene, Andean cloud forest taxa were replaced by lowland tree taxa as the cloud base rose while lowland ecotonal areas, which are presently covered by evergreen rainforest, were instead dominated by savannahs and/or semi-deciduous dry forests. Elsewhere in the Amazon Basin there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in patterns of vegetation disturbance and fire, which probably reflects the complex heterogeneous patterns in precipitation and seasonality across the basin, and the interactions between climate change, drought- and fire susceptibility of the forests, and Palaeo-Indian land use. Our analysis shows that the forest biome in most parts of Amazonia appears to have been remarkably resilient to climatic conditions significantly drier than those of today, despite widespread evidence of forest burning. Only in ecotonal areas is there evidence of biome replacement in the Holocene. From this palaeoecological perspective, we argue against the Amazon forest 'dieback' scenario simulated for the future.

Strength of forest-albedo feedback in mid-Holocene climate simulations

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J. Otto

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Reconstructions of the mid-Holocene climate, 6000 years before present, suggest that spring temperatures were higher at high northern latitudes compared to the pre-industrial period. A positive feedback between expansion of forest and climate presumably contributed to this warming. In the presence of snow, forests have a lower albedo than grass land. Therefore, the expansion of forest likely favoured a warming in spring, counteracting the lower insolation at the mid-Holocene.

We investigate the sensitivity of the vegetation-atmosphere interaction under mid-Holocene orbital forcing with respect to the strength of the forest-albedo feedback by using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere-vegetation model (ECHAM5/JSBACH. We perform two sets of model simulations: a first set of simulations with a relatively weak reduction of albedo of snow by forest; and a second set of simulations with a relatively strong reduction of the albedo of snow by forest.

We show that the parameterisation of the albedo of snow leads to uncertainties in the temperature signal. Compared to the set with weak snow masking, the simulations with strong snow masking reveal a spring warming that is three times higher, by 0.34 °C north of 60° N. This warming is related to a forest expansion of only 13%.

Holocene alluvial stratigraphy and response to climate change in the Roaring River valley, Front Range, Colorado, USA

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Madole, Richard F.

2012-09-01

Stratigraphic analyses and radiocarbon geochronology of alluvial deposits exposed along the Roaring River, Colorado, lead to three principal conclusions: (1) the opinion that stream channels in the higher parts of the Front Range are relics of the Pleistocene and nonalluvial under the present climate, as argued in a water-rights trial USA v. Colorado, is untenable, (2) beds of clast-supported gravel alternate in vertical succession with beds of fine-grained sediment (sand, mud, and peat) in response to centennial-scale changes in snowmelt-driven peak discharges, and (3) alluvial strata provide information about Holocene climate history that complements the history provided by cirque moraines, periglacial deposits, and paleontological data. Most alluvial strata are of late Holocene age and record, among other things, that: (1) the largest peak flows since the end of the Pleistocene occurred during the late Holocene; (2) the occurrence of a mid- to late Holocene interval (~ 2450-1630(?) cal yr BP) of warmer climate, which is not clearly identified in palynological records; and (3) the Little Ice Age climate seems to have had little impact on stream channels, except perhaps for minor (~ 1 m) incision.

Holocene climate dynamics in the central part of the East European plain (Russia)

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Novenko, Elena

2013-04-01

The Holocene climate and vegetation dynamics in the broad-leaved forest zone of the central part of the East European plain have been reconstructed on the base of pollen, plant macrofossil, testate amoebae and radiocarbon data from the mire Klukva (N 53.834812, E 36.252488), located in the kast depression in the Upper Oka River basin (Tula region, European Russia). The reconstruction of main parameters of past climate (the mean annual temperature precipitation) was carried out by the "Best Modern Analog" approach. Reconstructions of vegetation show that in the early Holocene the territory was occupied mainly by birch and pine-birch forests. Significant changes in the plant cover of the Upper Oka River basin are attributed to the 7.5 cal kyr BP). The climatic conditions were favorable for development of the broad-leaved forests those persisted in this area up to industrial period. In the 17th century, when the population density greatly increased and watersheds were ploughed, natural vegetation communities were gradually destroyed and transformed into agricultural landscapes. According to obtained climatic reconstructions the period 10-8.5 cal kyr BP was relatively cold and wet, when the mean annual temperature was in 3°C lower and precipitation was in 50-100 mm higher then nowadays. The significant climate warming occurred in about 7.0-5.0 cal kyr BP (The Holocene thermal maximum): the mean annual temperature in 2°C exceeded the modern value and precipitation was close to that. The environment conditions were drier due to decrease of effective moisture. In the second part of the Holocene the sequence of second-, and even third-order climatic oscillations expressed against the background of the overall slight trend towards cooling have been determined. The most pronounced cool and wet intervals were reconstructed in 2.5-2.0 cal kyr BP and 1.5-1.3 cal kyr BP. The mean annual temperature decreased in 1.5-2 °C and precipitation rose in 200 mm in compare to modern

Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene climate evolution controlled by sea-level change, Leeuwin Current, and Australian Monsoon in the Northwestern Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Ishiwa, T.; Yokoyama, Y.; McHugh, C.; Reuning, L.; Gallagher, S. J.

2017-12-01

The transition from cold to warm conditions during the last deglaciation influenced climate variability in the Indian Ocean and Pacific as a result of submerge of continental shelf and variations in the Indonesian Throughflow and Australian Monsoon. The shallow continental shelf (Program Expedition 356 Indonesian Throughflow drilled in the northwestern Australian shallow continental shelf and recovered an interval from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene in Site U1461. Radiocarbon dating on macrofossils, foraminifera, and bulk organic matter provided a precise age-depth model, leading to high-resolved paleoclimate reconstruction. X-ray elemental analysis results are interpreted as an indicator of sedimentary environmental changes. The upper 20-m part of Site U1461 apparently records the climate transition from the LGM to Holocene in the northwestern Australia, which could be associated with sea-level change, Leeuwin Current activity, and the Australian Monsoon.

Macrophysical climate models and Holocene hunter-gatherer subsistence shifts in Central Texas, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Mauldin, R. P.; Munoz, C.

2013-12-01

We use stable carbon isotopic values from bone collagen, as well as carbon values from carbonate extracted from bone apatite from 69 prehistoric human skeletal samples to investigate past resource use and climate relationships over the Middle and Late Holocene in Central Texas. Bone samples come from seven archaeological sites and samples date from 6,900 BP to the close of the prehistoric sequence at about 350 BP. Carbon isotopes from these samples suggest four broad dietary trends. From 6,900 through about 3,800 BP, carbon isotopes suggest a gradual increase in the consumption of resources that ultimately use a C3 photosynthetic pathway. A decline in δ13C in both collagen and carbonate values follows, suggesting a decrease in C3 resource use through roughly 2,900 BP. A variable, but once again increasing pattern on C3 resource use by prehistoric hunter-gatherers is indicated in bone isotopes through about 1,000 BP. After that date, a decrease in C3 resource dependence, with hints at greater subsistence diversity, is suggested through the close of the sequence at 350 BP. To assess the impact of climate shifts on this isotopic pattern, we developed a series of macrophysical climate models (MCM) for several locations in Central Texas focusing on fall, winter, and early spring precipitation. This fall-spring rainfall should closely determine C3 production. If subsistence shifts are responding to climate-induced changes in resource availability, then the measured hunter-gatherer carbon isotope trends summarized above should pattern with C3 production as monitored by the modeled fall-spring precipitation values. For the Middle Holocene portion of the sequence, the precipitation models suggest increasing C3 production, consistent with increasing C3 dependence shown in the isotopic data. A decline in C3 production between 3,900 and 3,000 BP in the models is also consistent with the isotopic decline at that point. After 3,000 BP, however, the coupling between fall

Patagonian and southern South Atlantic view of Holocene climate

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, M. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Strelin, J. A.; Denton, G. H.; Anderson, R. F.; Vandergoes, M. J.; Finkel, R. C.; Schwartz, R.; Travis, S. G.; Garcia, J. L.; Martini, M. A.; Nielsen, S. H. H.

2016-06-01

We present a comprehensive 10Be chronology for Holocene moraines in the Lago Argentino basin, on the east side of the South Patagonian Icefield. We focus on three different areas, where prior studies show ample glacier moraine records exist because they were formed by outlet glaciers sensitive to climate change. The 10Be dated records are from the Lago Pearson, Herminita Península-Brazo Upsala, and Lago Frías areas, which span a distance of almost 100 km adjacent to the modern Icefield. New 10Be ages show that expanded glaciers and moraine building events occurred at least at 6120 ± 390 (n = 13), 4450 ± 220 (n = 7), 1450 or 1410 ± 110 (n = 18), 360 ± 30 (n = 5), and 240 ± 20 (n = 8) years ago. Furthermore, other less well-dated glacier expansions of the Upsala Glacier occurred between 1400 and ∼1000 and ∼2300 and ∼2000 years ago. The most extensive glaciers occurred over the interval from ∼6100 to ∼4500 years ago, and their margins over the last ∼600 years were well within and lower than those in the middle Holocene. The 10Be ages agree with 14C-limiting data for the glacier histories in this area. We then link southern South American, adjacent South Atlantic, and other Southern Hemisphere records to elucidate broader regional patterns of climate and their possible causes. In the early Holocene, a far southward position of the westerly winds fostered warmth, small Patagonian glaciers, and reduced sea ice coverage over the South Atlantic. Although we infer a pronounced southward displacement of the westerlies during the early Holocene, these conditions did not occur throughout the southern mid-high latitudes, an important exception being over the southwest Pacific sector. Subsequently, a northward locus and/or expansion of the winds over the Patagonia-South Atlantic sector promoted the largest glaciers between ∼6100 and ∼4500 years ago and greatest sea ice coverage. Over the last few millennia, the South Patagonian Icefield has experienced

Mid- to Late Holocene climate development in Central Asia as revealed from multi-proxy analyses of sediments from Lake Son Kol (Kyrgyzstan)

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Lauterbach, Stefan; Dulski, Peter; Gleixner, Gerd; Hettler-Riedel, Sabine; Mingram, Jens; Plessen, Birgit; Prasad, Sushma; Schwalb, Antje; Schwarz, Anja; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman

2013-04-01

A mid-Holocene shift from predominantly wet to significantly drier climate conditions, attributed to the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), is documented in numerous palaeoclimate records from the monsoon-influenced parts of Asia, e.g. the Tibetan Plateau and north- and southeastern China. In contrast, Holocene climate development in the arid regions of mid-latitude Central Asia, located north and northwest of the Tibetan Plateau, is less well-constrained but supposed to have been influenced by a complex interaction between the mid-latitude Westerlies and the ASM. Hence, well-dated and highly resolved palaeoclimate records from Central Asia might provide important information about spatio-temporal changes in the regional interplay between Westerlies and ASM and thus aid the understanding of global climate teleconnections. As a part of the project CADY (Central Asian Climate Dynamics), aiming at reconstructing past climatic and hydrological variability in Central Asia, several sediment cores were recovered from alpine Lake Son Kol (41° 48'N, 75° 12'E, 3016 m a. s. l.) in the Central Tian Shan of Kyrgyzstan. A radiocarbon-dated sediment sequence of 154.5 cm length, covering approximately the last 6000 years, was investigated by using a multi-proxy approach, including sedimentological, (bio)geochemical, isotopic and micropalaeontological analyses. Preliminary proxy data indicate hydrologically variable but predominantly wet conditions until ca. 5100 cal. a BP, characterized by the deposition of finely laminated organic-carbonatic sediments. In contrast to monsoonal Asia, where a distinct trend towards drier conditions is observed since the mid-Holocene, the hydrologically variable interval at Lake Son Kol was apparently followed by an only short-term dry episode between ca. 5100 and 4200 cal. a BP. This is characterized by a higher δD of the C29 n-alkanes, probably reflecting increased evapotranspiration. Also pollen, diatom and ostracod data point

Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

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Zorzi, Coralie; Fernanda Sanchez Goñi, Maria; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

2016-04-01

In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4,200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4,200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

Holocene Tree Line and Climate Change on the Queen Charlotte Islands, Canada

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Pellatt, Marlow G.; Mathewes, Rolf W.

1997-07-01

Palynological study of two subalpine ponds on the Queen Charlotte Islands reveals changes in tree line and climate during the Holocene. The findings agree with previous reconstructions, from nearby Louise Pond on the Queen Charlotte Islands, that suggest a warmer-than-present climate and higher-than-present tree lines in the early Holocene (ca. 9600-6600 14C yr B.P.). Basal ages at SC1 Pond and Shangri-La Bog indicate that the basins did not hold permanent water before 7200 14C yr B.P., consistent with a warmer and drier early Holocene previously inferred from Louise Pond. Pollen and plant macrofossils indicate the initial establishment of subalpine conditions by 6090 ± 90 14C yr B.P., similar to the 5790 ± 130 14C yr B.P. age for cooling inferred from Louise Pond. Conditions similar to present were established at SC1 Pond by 3460 ± 100 14C yr B.P., confirming the previous estimate of 3400 14C yr B.P. at Louise Pond. This 3400 14C yr B.P. vegetation shift on the Queen Charlotte Islands corresponds with the beginning of the Tiedemann glacial advance in the south-coastal mountains of British Columbia (ca. 3300 14C yr B.P.), the Peyto and Robson glacial advances between 3300 and 2800 14C yr B.P. in the Rocky Mountains, and climatic cooling inferred from palynological studies throughout southern British Columbia, northern Washington, and southeast Alaska. These findings confirm that changes in regional climate influenced changes in vegetation in coastal British Columbia.

High-resolution paleoclimate records of Holocene hydroclimatic variability in the Eastern Colombian Andes from Lago de Tota

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, M. N.; Bird, B. W.; Escobar, J.; Polissar, P. J.

2017-12-01

The Northern Hemisphere (NH) South American Monsoon (SAM) is a significant source of precipitation for the North Andes (north of 0˚) and has major control over regional hydroclimate variability. Holocene-length histories of NH SAM variability are few compared to the Southern Hemisphere (SH), limiting understanding of how these systems are connected on orbital and shorter timescales. Here, we present multi-proxy lake-sediment-based paleoclimate and paleohydrologic reconstructions from Lago de Tota, Colombia, using sedimentological, geochemical and leaf-wax hydrogen isotopic indicators from radiometically dated cores. The results indicate periods of wet and dry climate phases during the past 9000 BP with an average Holocene sedimentation rate 33cm/kyr. An increase in total organic matter (TOM) content and finer grain-size distributions was observed from 8000 to 3200 BP, suggesting a period of high lake level. This was followed by lower TOM and coarser grain sizes, suggesting lower lake levels from 3200 BP to the present. Although Tota's lake level pattern is antiphased with other lake level reconstructions from the NH and SH Andes, it is consistent with hypothesized changes in atmospheric convection over the Andes during the Holocene and the way in which they would be modified by the so-called dry island effect in the Colombian Andes. This suggests that a common forcing mechanism can be invoked to explain differing millennial-scale Andean hydroclimate changes, namely atmospheric convection. Orbital and Pacific atmosphere-forcing are therefore likely to have played a significant role in driving pan-Andean hydroclimate variability based on their inter-hemispheric influence on Andean convection.

Clinal variation of some mammals during the Holocene in Missouri

Science.gov (United States)

Purdue, James R.

1980-03-01

Eastern cottontail ( Sylvilagus floridanus), fox squirrel ( Sciurus niger), and gray squirrel ( Sciurus carolinensis) were examined for clinal variation during the Holocene. Modern samples of all three species displayed strong east-west patterns along the western edge of the eastern deciduous forest: S. floridanus and S. niger decrease and S. carolinensis increases in size. Archeological samples of S. carolinensis from Rodgers Shelter (23BE125), Benton County, Missouri, and Graham Cave (23MT2), Montgomery County, Missouri, indicated an increase in size from early to middle Holocene. Sylvilagus floridanus from Rodgers Shelter decreased in size from early to middle Holocene and then increased during the late Holocene to modern proportions. A literature survey reveals that clinal variation is a common phenomenon among modern homeotherms. In introduced species, clinal variation has developed after relatively few generations, indicating rapid adaptations to environmental conditions; often winter climatic variables are implicated. Morphological variation in the study species during the Holocene is interpreted as a response to changing climates. Studies of morphological clines may lead to another valuable data source for reconstructing past ecologies.

Middle and late Holocene climate change and human impact inferred from diatoms, algae and aquatic macrophyte pollen in sediments from Lake Montcortès (NE Iberian Peninsula)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scussolini, P.; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Rull, V.; Corella, J.P.; Valero-Garcés, B.; Gomà, J.

2011-01-01

During the middle and late Holocene, the Iberian Peninsula underwent large climatic and hydrologic changes, but the temporal resolution and regional distribution of available palaeoenvironmental records is still insufficient for a comprehensive assessment of the regional variability. The high

Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

Science.gov (United States)

Gregoire, Lauren J.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Valdes, Paul J.; Stevenson, Samantha

2018-02-01

The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40° and 50°N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5-8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering during the Holocene are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing is unlikely to have played a major role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate

Science.gov (United States)

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M.; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie; Partin, Judson W.; Poore, Richard Z.; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2018-01-01

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate.

Science.gov (United States)

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie N; Partin, Judson W; Poore, Richard Z; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2018-01-26

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

Sensitivity of sediment magnetic records to climate change during Holocene for the northern South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Ouyang, Tingping; Li, Mingkun; Zhao, Xiang; Zhu, Zhaoyu; Tian, Chengjing; Qiu, Yan; Peng, Xuechao; Hu, Qiao

2016-05-01

Magnetic property has been proved to be a sensitive proxy to climate change for both terrestrial and marine sediments. Based on the schedule frame established by AMS 14C dating of foraminifera, detail magnetic analyses were performed for core PC24 sediments at sampling intervals of 2 cm to discuss magnetic sensitivity of marine sediment to climate during Holocene for the northern South China Sea. The results indicated that: 1) Concentration dependent magnetic parameters are positive corresponding to variation of temperature. The frequency dependent susceptibility coefficient basically reflected the variation in humidity; 2) XARM/SIRM was more sensitive to detrital magnetite particles and SIRM/X was more effective to biogenic magnetite particles. Variations of XARM/SIRM and SIRM/X are corresponding to precipitation and temperature, respectively; 3) the Holocene Megathermal in the study area was identified as 7.5-3.4 cal. ka BP. The warmest stage of Holocene for the study area should be during 6.1 to 3.9 cal. ka BP; 4) The 8 ka cold event was characterized as cold and dry during 8.55 to 8.25 cal. ka BP; 5) During early and middle Holocene, the climate combinations were warm dry and cold wet. It turned to warm and wet after 2.7 cal. ka BP.

Sensitivity of sediment magnetic records to climate change during Holocene for the northern South China Sea

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Tingping eOuyang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Magnetic property has been proved to be a sensitive proxy to climate change for both terrestrial and marine sediments. Based on the schedule frame established by AMS 14C dating of foraminifera, detail magnetic analyses were performed for core PC24 sediments at sampling intervals of 2 cm to discuss magnetic sensitivity of marine sediment to climate during Holocene for the northern South China Sea. The results indicated that: 1 Concentration dependent magnetic parameters are positive corresponding to variation of temperature. The frequency dependent susceptibility coefficient basically reflected the variation in humidity; 2 XARM/SIRM was more sensitive to detrital magnetite particles and SIRM/X was more effective to biogenic magnetite particles. Variations of XARM/SIRM and SIRM/X are corresponding to precipitation and temperature, respectively; 3 the Holocene Megathermal in the study area was identified as 7.5-3.4 cal. ka BP. The warmest stage of Holocene for the study area should be during 6.1 to 3.9 cal. ka BP; 4 The 8 ka cold event was characterized as cold and dry during 8.55 to 8.25 cal. ka BP; 5 During early and middle Holocene, the climate combinations were warm dry and cold wet. It turned to warm and wet after 2.7 cal. ka BP.

Holocene vegetation and climate change on the Haanja heights, South-East Estonia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saarse, Leili; Rajamaee, Raivo

1997-01-01

The development of forests on the Haanja Heights has been controlled by external factors, including climate, soils, hydrology, and human impact. The sediment sequence from Lake Kirikumaee, which covers about 12 000 years, records the vegetation history throughout the Late Glacial and Holocene. In the Alleroed, woodland tundra with sparse birch and willow was established. Grass-shrub tundra in the Younger Dryas was replaced by birch forest in the Pre-Boreal. During the Holocene two major shifts in vegetation dynamics occurred: the first about 8500 BP with a sharp decline in Betula-Pinus forest and development of broad-leaved forest, and the second about 3500 BP, with a decline in broad-leaved forest and regeneration of Pinus-Betula forest with a high share of Picea. The climate modelling, based on pollen record and lake-level changes, suggest cold, severe climate with low precipitation values in the early Pre-Boreal. Between 9500-8500 BP the climate was rather stable. The lake level first rose, then stabilized, and finally dropped. The sharp climate amelioration in the late Boreal together with the humidity increase resulted in a lake-level rise. The decreased precipitation and rather high summer temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and reduced water balance are characteristic of the Sub-Boreal. Since 3500 BP, the climate deteriorated and mixed coniferous forest started to dominate. Several small climatic fluctuations, including the Little Ice Age cooling, have been traced by modelling. (author)

Paleolimnological reconstruction of environmental variability during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene in the south-east Baltic region

Science.gov (United States)

Kublitskiy, Iurii; Subetto, Dmitriy; Druzhinina, Olga; Kulkova, Marianna; Arslanov, Khikmatula

2016-04-01

The main goal of our research is the high-resolution reconstruction of environmental and climatic changes in SE Baltic region since the Last Glacial Maximum by palaeolimnological data. The 6 objects - lakes and peat-bogs, were studied since 2009 in the Kaliningrad region, Russian Federation. According to palaeolimnological studies of bottom sediments of the Kamyshovoe Lake (N 54°22,6`; E22°42,8`, 189 m a.s.l.), located in the Vishtynets Highland, the south-east part of Kaliningrad district, the environmental and climatic changes after the late glacial have been reconstructed. At that moment the radiocarbon and loss-on-ignition (LOI) data, geochemistry and diatom analysis for the whole sediment core, and pollen analyze for the bottom part of the core have been completed. According to the pollen data the Alleröd interstadial starts at 13 200 cal. yrs BP and is marked by the rising of birch and pine pollen. The transition to the Younger Dryas around 12 700 cal. yrs BP corresponds with the development of patches of shrublands in which light-demanding species, such as juniper, flourished and communities of steppe herbs. The late Preboreal is marked by the appearance of Populus and an increase of the role of grasses in the vegetation cover 11 300-11 100 cal. yrs BP (Druzinina et al., 2015). The Holocene climatic zones have been identified by LOI and geochemistry analyses. The Boreal period started about 10 200 cal. yrs BP, Atlantic around 9100 cal. yrs BP, Subboreal 5800 cal. yrs BP, and Subatlantic 3200 cal. yrs BP (Kublitskiy et al., 2015). During the conference the new palaeolimnological data of environmental variability during the late Pleistocene and Holocene in SE Baltic region will be presented. Acknowledgements The investigations have been granted by the Russian Fund for Basic Research (12-05-33013, 13-05-41457, 15-35-50721). References Druzhinina, O., Subetto, D., Stančikaitė, M., Vaikutienė, G., Kublitsky, J., Arslanov, Kh., 2015. Sediment record from the

Multi-Decadal to Millennial Scale Holocene Hydrologic Variation in the Southern Hemisphere Tropics of South America

Science.gov (United States)

Ekdahl, E. J.; Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Burns, S. J.; Coley, K.; Rigsby, C. A.

2005-12-01

Numerous sites in the Northern Hemisphere show multi-decadal to millennial scale climate variation during the Holocene, many of which have been correlated with changes in atmospheric radiocarbon production or with changes in North Atlantic oceanic circulation. The manifestation of such climate variability in the hydrology of the Southern Hemisphere tropics of South America is unclear, because of the limited number of records at suitably high resolution. In the Lake Titicaca drainage basin of Bolivia and Peru, high-resolution lacustrine records reveal the overall pattern of Holocene lake-level change, the influence of precessional forcing of the South American Summer Monsoon, and the effects of high-frequency climate variability in records of lake productivity and lake ecology. Precessional forcing of regional precipitation is evident in the Lake Titicaca basin as a massive (ca. 85 m) mid-Holocene decline in lake level beginning about 7800 cal yr BP and a subsequent rise in lake level after 4000 cal yr BP. Here we show that multi-decadal to millennial-scale climate variability, superimposed upon the envelope of change at orbital time scales, is similar in timing and pattern to the ice-rafted debris record of Holocene Bond events in the North Atlantic. A high-resolution carbon isotopic record from Lake Titicaca that spans the entire Holocene suggests that cold intervals of Holocene Bond events are periods of increased precipitation, thus indicating an anti-phasing of precipitation variation on the Altiplano relative to the Northern Hemisphere tropics. A similar pattern of variation is also evident in high-resolution (2-30 yr spacing) diatom and geochemical records that span the last 7000 yr from two smaller lakes, Lagos Umayo and Lagunillas, in the Lake Titicaca drainage basin.

Impact of Earth's orbit and freshwater fluxes on Holocene climate mean seasonal cycle and ENSO characteristics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Braconnot, P.; Zheng, W. [unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Luan, Y. [unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Brewer, Simon [University of Wyoming, Department of Botany, Laramie, WY (United States)

2012-03-15

We use a state-of-the-art 3-dimensional coupled model to investigate the relative impact of long term variations in the Holocene insolation forcing and of a freshwater release in the North Atlantic. We show that insolation has a greater effect on seasonality and La Nina events and is the major driver of sea surface temperature changes. In contrast, the variations in precipitation reflect changes in El Nino events. The impact of ice-sheet melting may have offset the impact of insolation on El Nino Southern Oscillation variability at the beginning of the Holocene. These simulations provide a coherent framework to refine the interpretation of proxy data and show that changes in seasonality may bias the projection of relationships established between proxy indicators and climate variations in the east Pacific from present day records. (orig.)

Dust fluxes and iron fertilization in Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum climates

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, Fabrice; Tagliabue, Alessandro; Shaffer, Gary; Lamy, Frank; Winckler, Gisela; Farias, Laura; Gallardo, Laura; De Pol-Holz, Ricardo

2015-07-01

Mineral dust aerosols play a major role in present and past climates. To date, we rely on climate models for estimates of dust fluxes to calculate the impact of airborne micronutrients on biogeochemical cycles. Here we provide a new global dust flux data set for Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions based on observational data. A comparison with dust flux simulations highlights regional differences between observations and models. By forcing a biogeochemical model with our new data set and using this model's results to guide a millennial-scale Earth System Model simulation, we calculate the impact of enhanced glacial oceanic iron deposition on the LGM-Holocene carbon cycle. On centennial timescales, the higher LGM dust deposition results in a weak reduction of pump. This is followed by a further ~10 ppm reduction over millennial timescales due to greater carbon burial and carbonate compensation.

European climate variability and human susceptibility over the past 2500 years

Science.gov (United States)

Buentgen, U.

2010-09-01

Climate variations including droughts in the western US and African Sahel, landfalls of Atlantic hurricanes, and shifts in the Asian monsoon have affected human societies throughout history mainly by modulating water supply and agricultural productivity, health risk and civil conflict. Yet, discriminations of environmental impacts from political, economical and technological drivers of societal shifts are may be hampered by the indirect effects of climate on society, but certainly by the paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimatic evidence. Here we present a tree-ring network of 7284 precipitation sensitive oak series from lower elevations in France and Germany, and a compilation of 1546 temperature responsive conifers from higher elevations in the Austrian Alps, both covering the past 2500 years. Temporal distribution of historical felling dates of construction timber refers to changes in settlement activity that mirror different stages of economic wealth. Variations in Central European summer precipitation and temperature are contrasted with societal benchmarks. Prolonged periods of generally wet and warm summers, favourable for cultural prosperity, appeared during the Roman epoch between ~200 BC and 200 AD and from ~700-1000 AD, with the latter facilitating the rapid economic, cultural and political growth of medieval Europe. Unprecedented climate variability from ~200-500 AD coincides with the demise of the Western Roman Empire and the subsequent Barbarian Migrations. This period was characterized by continental-scale political turmoil, cultural stagnation and socio-economic instability including settlement abandonment, population migration, and societal collapse. Driest and coldest summers of the Late Holocene concurred in the 6th century, during which regional consolidation began. The recent political, cultural and fiscal reluctance to adapt to and mitigate projected climate change reflects the common belief of societal insusceptibility to environmental

Floodplain construction of the Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas, USA: response to Holocene climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Stephen A.; Peterson, John A.

2013-04-01

The Rio Grande is one of the larger rivers in North America, and the development of its floodplain is related to Holocene climate and climate change. The late Pleistocene through early Holocene channel is characterized by a meander or braided system with lateral cutting and backfilling, resulting in the valley-wide deposition of massive to cross-bedded, fine-to-medium textured sand. The late Pleistocene-early Holocene floodplain is also the sand source for the adjacent Bolson sand sheet. The sand sheet stopped accumulating new sand 5000 yrs ago, an event directly related to the shutting off of the sand supply caused by the deposition of overbank muds that covered and sealed the floodplain surface. During the middle Holocene, the river may have dried intermittently with the floodplain becoming deflated and local sand dunes forming on the floodplain. After 5000 yrs the climate was less arid and the river shifted to a regime of increased flooding and overbank deposition of silt and clay. By 2500 yrs, a late Holocene period of wet climate resulted in further overbank deposition and the formation of a cumulic Mollisol across the floodplain, the Socorro paleosol. The period of wet climate corresponds to the Audubon Neoglacial and active rock glaciers in the southern Rocky Mountains, speleothem growth in nearby caves, and other evidence for wet-cool conditions in the region. After 1000 yrs, the climate became drier, and the deposition and accumulation of overbank muds by the flooding Rio Grande came to a halt. Even though the river has flooded often in historic times, and presumably during late prehistoric times as well, there is little evidence for deposition of overbank sediments on the floodplain since A.D. 1000. Accordingly, the present-day surface of the Lower Valley is ten centuries old. Three channels occur on the US side of the Lower Valley floodplain, and during the past 2500 yrs stream flow has shifted from one to the other by the avulsion process of channel

Holocene glacial fluctuations in southern South America

Science.gov (United States)

Reynhout, S.; Sagredo, E. A.; Kaplan, M. R.; Aravena, J. C.; Martini, M. A.; Strelin, J. A.; Schaefer, J. M.

2016-12-01

Understanding the timing and magnitude of former glacier fluctuations is critical to decipher long-term climatic trends and to unravel both natural cycles and human impact on the current glacial behavior. Despite more than seven decades of research efforts, a unifying model of Holocene glacial fluctuations in Southern South America remains elusive. Here, we present the state-of-the-art regarding the timing of Holocene glacial fluctuation in southern Patagonia-Tierra del Fuego, with a focus on a new generation of high-resolution radiocarbon and 10Be surface exposure dating chronologies. Recently acquired evidence suggest that after receding from advanced Late Glacial positions, Patagonian glaciers were for the most part close to, or even behind, present ice margins during the Early Holocene. On the other hand, emerging chronologies indicate that in some areas there were extensive expansions (century scale?) that punctuated the warm interval. Subsequently, we have evidence of multiple millennial timescale glacial advances starting in the middle Holocene. Several glacial maxima are defined by moraines and other landforms from 7000 years ago to the 19th century, with a gap sometime between 4,500 and 2,500 years ago. The last set of advances began around 800-600 years ago. Although glacial activity is documented in Patagonia at the same time as the European Little Ice Age, the extent of these glacial events are less prominent than those of the mid-Holocene. The causes that may explain these glacial fluctuations remain elusive. Finally, we discuss ongoing efforts to better define the timing and extent of Holocene glaciations in southern South America, and to establish the basis to test competing hypothesis of regional Holocene climate variability.

Holocene fire dynamics in Fennoscandia

Science.gov (United States)

Clear, Jennifer; Seppa, Heikki; Kuosmanen, Niina; Molinari, Chiara; Lehsten, Veiko; Allen, Katherine; Bradshaw, Richard

2015-04-01

Prescribed burning is advocated in Fennoscandia to promote regeneration and to encourage biodiversity. This method of forest management is based on the perception that fire was much more frequent in the recent past and over a century of active fire suppression has created a boreal forest ecosystem almost free of natural fire. The absence of fire is thought to have contributed to the widespread dominance of Picea abies (Norway spruce) with the successive spruce dominated forest further reducing fire ignition potential. However, humans have altered the natural fire dynamics of Fennoscandia since the early- to mid-Holocene and disentangling the anthropogenic driven fire dynamics from the natural fire dynamics is challenging. Through palaeoecology and sedimentary charcoal deposits we are able to explore the Holocene spatial and temporal variability and changing drivers of fire and vegetation dynamics in Fennoscandia. At the local-scale, two forest hollow environments (history are compared to identify unique and mutual changes in disturbance history. Pollen derived quantitative reconstruction of vegetation at both the local- and regional-scale identifies local-scale disturbance dynamics and large-scale ecosystem response. Spatio-temporal heterogeneity and variability in biomass burning is explored throughout Fennoscandia and Denmark to identify the changing drives of fire dynamics throughout the Holocene. Palaeo-vegetation reconstructions are compared to process-based, climate driven dynamic vegetation model output to test the significance of fire frequency as a driver of vegetation composition and dynamics. Early-Holocene fire regimes in Fennoscandia are driven by natural climate variations and fuel availability. The establishment and spread of Norway spruce is driven by an increase in continentality of climate, but local natural and anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance may have aided this spread. The expansion of spruce led to a step-wise reduction in regional biomass

Biomization and quantitative climate reconstruction techniques in northwestern Mexico—With an application to four Holocene pollen sequences

Science.gov (United States)

Ortega-Rosas, C. I.; Guiot, J.; Peñalba, M. C.; Ortiz-Acosta, M. E.

2008-04-01

6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12, 185-194), we modified the pollen-PFT and PFT-biomes assignation of Thompson and Anderson (Thompson, R.S., Anderson, K.H., 2000. Biomes of western North America at 18,000; 6000 and 0 14C yr BP reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data. Journal of Biogeography 27, 555-584) for a better representation of the modern vegetation of NW Mexico. The biome reconstruction method was validated with the modern pollen sites and applied to the fossil sites. Our results show that, during the early Holocene, a cool conifer forest extended at least down to 1700 m, while today this biome is present above 2000 m in the Chihuahua state. The Younger Dryas event was recorded in one site with cold and dry conditions. The reconstructed annual temperature for this period was 3°-6 °C colder than today, and annual precipitation was 250 mm lower than at present (900 mm/yr). The middle Holocene after 9200 cal yr BP was marked by a warming trend, reaching temperatures 2 °C warmer than today at 7000 cal yr BP, and by the installation of a warm mixed forest, the present day biome, at 1700 m elevation, while at higher elevations (1900 m) the cool conifer forest was still present. Summer precipitation was 200 mm/yr above the early Holocene values, suggesting that monsoon-like conditions strengthened since 9200 cal yr BP at this region. During the last 4000 yr, the same warm mixed forest was reconstructed below 1700 m and a conifer forest above 1700 m. A great variability of vegetation and climate patterns was recorded for the last 3000 yr particularly at high elevation sites, where warming and cooling trends would be coeval of the Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age, likely related to ENSO variability.

Heat export from the tropics drives mid to late Holocene palaeoceanographic changes offshore southern Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Perner, Kerstin; Moros, Matthias; De Deckker, Patrick; Blanz, Thomas; Wacker, Lukas; Telford, Richard; Siegel, Herbert; Schneider, Ralph; Jansen, Eystein

2018-01-01

The Leeuwin Current (LC), an eastern boundary current, transports tropical waters from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) towards southern latitudes and modulates oceanic conditions offshore southern Australia. New, high-resolution planktic foraminifer assemblage data and alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures (SST) provide an in-depth view on LC variability and mechanisms driving the current's properties during the mid to late Holocene (last c. 7.4 ka BP). Our marine reconstructions highlight a longer-term mid to late Holocene reduction of tropical heat export from the IPWP area into the LC. Mid Holocene (c. 7.4 to 3.5 ka BP) occurrence of high SSTs (>19.5 °C), tropical planktic foraminifera and a well-stratified water column document an enhanced heat export from the tropics. From c. 3.5 ka BP onwards, a weaker LC and a notably reduced tropical heat export cause oceanic cooling offshore southern Australia. The observed mid to late Holocene trends likely result from large-scale changes in the IPWP's heat storage linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. We propose that a strong and warm LC occurs in response to a La Niña-like state of ENSO during the mid Holocene. The late Holocene LC cooling, however, results from a shift towards an El Niño-like state and a more variable ENSO system that causes cooling of the IPWP. Superimposed on these longer-term trends we find evidence of distinct late Holocene millennial-scale phases of enhanced El Niño/La Niña development, which appear synchronous with northern hemispheric climatic variability. Phases of dominant El Niño-like states occur parallel to North Atlantic cold phases: the '2800 years BP cooling event', the 'Dark Ages' and the 'Little Ice Age', whereas the 'Roman Warm Period' and the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' parallel periods of a predominant La Niña-like state. Our findings provide further evidence of coherent interhemispheric climatic and oceanic conditions during the mid to late

Climate fluctuations during the Holocene in NW Iberia: High and low latitude linkages

Science.gov (United States)

Pena, L. D.; Francés, G.; Diz, P.; Esparza, M.; Grimalt, J. O.; Nombela, M. A.; Alejo, I.

2010-07-01

High resolution benthic foraminiferal stable isotopes (δ 18O, δ 13C) and molecular biomarkers in the sediments are used here to infer rapid climatic changes for the last 8200 years in the Ría de Muros (NW Iberian Margin). Benthic foraminiferal δ 18O and δ 13C potentially register migrations in the position of the hydrographic front formed between two different intermediate water masses: Eastern North Atlantic Central Water of subpolar origin (ENACW sp) and subtropical origin (ENACW st). The molecular biomarkers in the sediment show a strong coupling between continental organic matter inputs and negative δ 13C values in benthic foraminifera. The rapid centennial and millennial events registered in these records have been compared with two well known North Atlantic Holocene records from the subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies off Cape Blanc, NW Africa and the subpolar Atlantic (Hematite Stained Grains percentage, subpolar North Atlantic). Comparison supports a strong link between high- and low-latitude climatic perturbations at centennial-millennial time scales during the Holocene. Spectral analyses also points to a pole-to-equator propagation of the so-called 1500 yr cycles. Our results demonstrate that during the Holocene, the NW Iberian Margin has undergone a series of rapid events which are likely triggered at high latitudes in the North Atlantic and are rapidly propagated towards lower latitudes. Conceivably, the propagation of these rapid climatic changes involves a shift in atmospheric and oceanic circulatory systems.

Paleoclimate from ice cores : abrupt climate change and the prolonged Holocene

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, J.W.C.

2001-01-01

Ice cores provide valuable information about the Earth's past climates and past environments. They can also help in predicting future climates and the nature of climate change. Recent findings in ice cores have shown large and abrupt climate changes in the past. This paper addressed abrupt climate changes and the peculiar nature of the Holocene. An abrupt climate change is a shift of 5 degrees C in mean annual temperature in less than 50 years. This is considered to be the most threatening aspect of potential future climate change since it leaves very little time for adaptation by humans or any other part of the Earth's ecosystem. This paper also discussed the arrival of the next glacial period. In the past 50 years, scientists have recognized the importance of the Earth's orbit around the sun in pacing the occurrence of large ice sheets. The timing of orbital forcing suggests that the Earth is overdue for the next major glaciation. The reason for this anomaly was discussed. Abrupt climate shifts seem to be caused by mode changes in sensitive points in the climate system, such as the North Atlantic Deep Water Formation and its impact on sea ice cover in the North Atlantic. These changes have been observed in ice cores in Greenland but they are not restricted to Greenland. Evidence from Antarctic ice cores suggest that abrupt climate change may also occur in the Southern Hemisphere. The Vostok ice core in Antarctica indicates that the 11,000 year long interglacial period that we are in right now is longer than the previous four interglacial periods. The Holocene epoch is unique because both methane and carbon dioxide rise in the last 6,000 years, an atypical response from these greenhouse gases during an interglacial period. It was suggested that the rise in methane can be attributed to human activities. 13 refs., 2 figs

Insolation driven biomagnetic response to Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, S.; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

2015-01-01

The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly

Holocene Glacier Fluctuations in the Peruvian Andes Indicate Northern Climate Linkages

Science.gov (United States)

Licciardi, Joseph M.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Taggart, Jean R.; Lund, David C.

2009-09-01

The role of the tropics in triggering, transmitting, and amplifying interhemispheric climate signals remains a key debate in paleoclimatology. Tropical glacier fluctuations provide important insight on regional paleoclimatic trends and forcings, but robust chronologies are scarce. Here, we report precise moraine ages from the Cordillera Vilcabamba (13°20‧S) of southern Peru that indicate prominent glacial events and associated climatic shifts in the outer tropics during the early Holocene and late in the “Little Ice Age” period. Our glacier chronologies differ from the New Zealand record but are broadly correlative with well-dated glacial records in Europe, suggesting climate linkages between the tropics and the North Atlantic region.

A multi-proxy reconstruction of Holocene climate change from Blessberg Cave, Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Plessen, Birgit; Wenz, Sarah; Leonhardt, Jens; Tjallingii, Rik; Scholz, Denis; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Marwan, Norbert

2016-04-01

Although Holocene climate dynamics were relatively stable compared to glacial conditions, climatic changes had significant impact on ecosystems and human society on various timescales (Mayewski et al. 2004, Donges et al. 2015, Tan et al. 2015). Precious few high-resolution records on Holocene temperature and precipitation conditions in Central Europe are available (e.g., von Grafenstein et al. 1999, Fohlmeister et al. 2012). Here we present a speleothem-based reconstruction of past climate dynamics from Blessberg Cave, Thuringia, central Germany. Three calcitic stalagmites were recovered when the cave was discovered during tunneling operations in 2008. Samples BB-1, -2 and -3 were precisely dated by the 230Th/U-method, with errors between 10 and 160 years (2σ). The combined record covers large parts of the Holocene (10 - 0.4 ka BP). δ13C and δ18O were analysed at 100 μm resolution. To gain additional insights in infiltration conditions, Sr/Ca and S/Ca were measured on BB-1 and BB-3 using an Röntgenanalytik Eagle XXL μXRF scanner. Differences to other central European records (e.g., von Grafenstein et al. 1999, Fohlmeister et al. 2012) suggest complex interaction between multiple factors influencing speleothem δ18O in Blessberg Cave. Furthermore, no clear influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on our proxies is found. However, a link across the N Atlantic realm is indicated by a centennial-scale correlation between Blessberg δ18O values and minerogenic input into lake SS1220 in Greenland over the last 5 ka (Olsen et al. 2012). In addition, recurrence analysis indicates an imprint of Atlantic Bond events on Blessberg δ18O values (Marwan et al. 2014), corroborating the suggested link with high northern latitudes. Larger runoff into the Greenland lake seems to be associated with lower δ18O, higher δ13C and S/Ca ratios, as well as lower Sr/Ca ratios in Blessberg Cave speleothems. This might be linked to lower local temperature and/or changes in

Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records

Science.gov (United States)

Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

2013-12-01

compared to other proxy records. (2) a multiproxy reconstruction of temperature over the Common Era (Mann et al., 2009), where we find that about one third of the records display significant departures from normality. Accordingly, accounting for skewness in proxy predictors has a notable influence on both reconstructed global mean and spatial patterns of temperature change. Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records thus requires cares, but can be done with relatively simple tools. References - Mann, M. E., Z. Zhang, S. Rutherford, R. S. Bradley, M. K. Hughes, D. Shindell, C. Ammann, G. Faluvegi, and F. Ni (2009), Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little ice age and medieval climate anomaly, Science, 326(5957), 1256-1260, doi:10.1126/science.1177303. - Moy, C., G. Seltzer, D. Rodbell, and D. Anderson (2002), Variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activ- ity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch, Nature, 420(6912), 162-165.

Late holocene climate derived from vegetation history and plant cellulose stable isotope records from the Great Basin of western North America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wigand, P.E.; Hemphill, M.L.; Patra, S.M.

1994-01-01

Integration of pollen records, and fossil woodrat midden data recovered from multiple strata of fossil woodrat (Neotoma spp.) dens (middens) in both northern and southern Nevada reveal a detailed paleoclimatic proxy record for the Great Basin during the last 45,000 years in growing detail. Clear, late Holocene climate-linked elevational depressions of plant species' distributions have occurred throughout the Great Basin of up to 200 m below today's and by as much as 1000 m below what they were during the middle Holocene. Horizontal plant range extentions during the Holocene reflecting the final northern most adjustments to Holocene climates range up to several hundred kilometers in the Great Basin. Well documented lags evidenced in the late Holocene response of vegetation communities to increased precipitation indicate reduced effectiveness in the ability of plant communities to assimilate excess precipitation. This resulted in significant runoff that was available for recharge. These responses, although indicating both rapid and dramatic fluctuations of climate for the Holocene, fall far short of the scale of such changes during the late Pleistocene. Extension of these results to Pleistocene woodrat den and pollen data evidence spans lasting several hundred to a thousand or more years during which significantly greater amounts of precipitation would have been available for runnoff or recharge

Novel sedimentological fingerprints link shifting depositional processes to Holocene climate transitions in East Greenland

Science.gov (United States)

van der Bilt, Willem G. M.; Rea, Brice; Spagnolo, Matteo; Roerdink, Desiree L.; Jørgensen, Steffen L.; Bakke, Jostein

2018-05-01

The Arctic warms faster than any other region of our planet. Besides melting glaciers, thawing permafrost and decreasing sea-ice, this amplified response affects earth surface processes. This geomorphological expression of climate change may alter landscapes and increase the frequency and magnitude of geohazards like floods or mass-movements. Beyond the short span of sparse monitoring time series, geological archives provide a valuable long-term context for future risk assessment. Lake sediment sequences are particularly promising in this respect as continuous recorders of surface process change. Over the past decade, the emergence of new techniques that characterize depositional signatures in more detail has enhanced this potential. Here, we present a well-dated Holocene-length lake sediment sequence from Ammassalik Island on southeast Greenland. This area is particularly sensitive to regional shifts in the Arctic climate system due to its location near the sea-ice limit, the Greenland Ice Sheet and the convergence of polar and Atlantic waters. The expression of Holocene change is fingerprinted using physical (grain size, organic content, density), visual (3-D Computed Tomography) and geochemical (X-Ray Fluorescence, X-Ray Diffraction) evidence. We show that three sharp transitions characterize the Holocene evolution of Ymer Lake. Between 10 and 9.5 cal. ka BP, rapid local glacier loss from the lake catchment culminated in an outburst flood. Following a quiescent Holocene climatic optimum, Neoglacial cooling, lengthening lake ice cover and shifting wind patterns prompted in-lake avalanching of sediments from 4.2 cal. ka BP onwards. Finally, glaciers reformed in the catchment around 1.2 cal. ka BP. The timing of these shifts is consistent with the regional expression of deglaciation, Neoglacial cooling and Little Ice Age-type glacier growth, respectively. The novel multi-proxy approach applied in this study rigorously links depositional sediment signatures to

Diatom community response to climate variability over the past 37,000 years in the sub-tropics of the Southern Hemisphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hembrow, Sarah C., E-mail: sarah.hembrow@scu.edu.au [School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW 2480 (Australia); Taffs, Kathryn H. [School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW 2480 (Australia); Atahan, Pia [Institute for Environmental Research, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Kirrawee, NSW 2232 (Australia); Parr, Jeff [School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW 2480 (Australia); Zawadzki, Atun; Heijnis, Henk [Institute for Environmental Research, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Kirrawee, NSW 2232 (Australia)

2014-01-01

Climate change is impacting global surface water resources, increasing the need for a deeper understanding of the interaction between climate and biological diversity. This is particularly the case in the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics, where little information exists on the aquatic biota response to climate variations. Palaeolimnological techniques, in particular the use of diatoms, are well established and can significantly contribute to the understanding of climatic variability and the impacts that change in climate have on aquatic ecosystems. A sediment core from Lake McKenzie, Fraser Island (Australia), was used to investigate interactions between climate influences and aquatic ecosystems. This study utilises a combination of proxies including biological (diatom), geochemical and chronological techniques to investigate long-term aquatic changes within the perched-dune lake. A combination of {sup 210}Pb and AMS {sup 14}C dates showed that the retrieved sediment represented a history of ca. 37,000 cal. yBP. The sedimentation rate in Lake McKenzie is very low, ranging on average from 0.11 mm to 0.26 mm per year. A sediment hiatus was observed between ca. 18,300 and 14,000 cal. yBP suggesting a period of dry conditions at the site. The diatom record shows little variability over the period of record, with benthic, freshwater acidic tolerant species dominating. Relative abundance of planktonic species and geochemical results indicates a period of increased water depth and lake productivity in the early Holocene and a gradual decrease in effective precipitation throughout the Holocene. Results from this study not only support earlier work conducted on Fraser Island using pollen reconstructions but also demonstrate that diatom community diversity has been relatively consistent throughout the Holocene and late Pleistocene with only minor cyclical fluctuation evident. This record is consistent with the few other aquatic palaeoecological records from the Southern

Diatom community response to climate variability over the past 37,000 years in the sub-tropics of the Southern Hemisphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hembrow, Sarah C.; Taffs, Kathryn H.; Atahan, Pia; Parr, Jeff; Zawadzki, Atun; Heijnis, Henk

2014-01-01

Climate change is impacting global surface water resources, increasing the need for a deeper understanding of the interaction between climate and biological diversity. This is particularly the case in the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics, where little information exists on the aquatic biota response to climate variations. Palaeolimnological techniques, in particular the use of diatoms, are well established and can significantly contribute to the understanding of climatic variability and the impacts that change in climate have on aquatic ecosystems. A sediment core from Lake McKenzie, Fraser Island (Australia), was used to investigate interactions between climate influences and aquatic ecosystems. This study utilises a combination of proxies including biological (diatom), geochemical and chronological techniques to investigate long-term aquatic changes within the perched-dune lake. A combination of 210 Pb and AMS 14 C dates showed that the retrieved sediment represented a history of ca. 37,000 cal. yBP. The sedimentation rate in Lake McKenzie is very low, ranging on average from 0.11 mm to 0.26 mm per year. A sediment hiatus was observed between ca. 18,300 and 14,000 cal. yBP suggesting a period of dry conditions at the site. The diatom record shows little variability over the period of record, with benthic, freshwater acidic tolerant species dominating. Relative abundance of planktonic species and geochemical results indicates a period of increased water depth and lake productivity in the early Holocene and a gradual decrease in effective precipitation throughout the Holocene. Results from this study not only support earlier work conducted on Fraser Island using pollen reconstructions but also demonstrate that diatom community diversity has been relatively consistent throughout the Holocene and late Pleistocene with only minor cyclical fluctuation evident. This record is consistent with the few other aquatic palaeoecological records from the Southern Hemisphere sub

Climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rind, D.

1990-01-01

Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

Holocene vegetation and climate history of the northern Bighorn Basin, southern Montana

Science.gov (United States)

Lyford, M.E.; Betancourt, J.L.; Jackson, S.T.

2002-01-01

Records of Holocene vegetation and climate change at low elevations (treeline indicates wetter conditions between 4400 and 2700 14C yr B.P. Increased aridity after 2700 14C yr B.P. initiated expansion of J. osteosperma from the east to west side of the Pryor Mountains. ?? 2002 University of Washington.

Detecting vegetation-precipitation feedbacks in mid-Holocene North Africa from two climate models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Yi; Notaro, Michael; Liu, Zhengyu; Gallimore, Robert; Levis, Samuel; Kutzbach, John E.

2008-03-31

Using two climate-vegetation model simulations from the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 2), we investigate vegetation-precipitation feedbacks across North Africa during the mid-Holocene. From mid-Holocene snapshot runs of FOAM and CCSM2, we detect a negative feedback at the annual timescale with our statistical analysis. Using the Monte- Carlo bootstrap method, the annual negative feedback is further confirmed to be significant in both simulations. Additional analysis shows that this negative interaction is partially caused by the competition between evaporation and transpiration in North African grasslands. Furthermore, we find the feedbacks decrease with increasing timescales, and change signs from positive to negative at increasing timescales in FOAM. The proposed mechanism for this sign switch is associated with the different persistent timescales of upper and lower soil water contents, and their interactions with vegetation and atmospheric precipitation.

Climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rind, D.

1991-01-01

Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Lesleigh; Berkelhammer, Max; Barron, John A.; Steinman, Byron A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Abbott, Mark B.

2016-02-01

Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ18O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ18O and δ2H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ18O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ18O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north-south precipitation-δ18O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north-south precipitation-δ18O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean-atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ18O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the processes that drive

Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Lesleigh; Max Berkelhammer,; Barron, John A.; Steinman, Byron A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Abbott, Mark B.

2016-01-01

Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean–atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ18O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ18O and δ2H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ18O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ18O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north–south precipitation-δ18O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean–atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north–south precipitation-δ18O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean–atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ18O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the

Holocene vegetation, fire and climate interactions on the westernmost fringe of the Mediterranean Basin

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Morales-Molino, César; García-Antón, Mercedes; Postigo-Mijarra, José M.; Morla, Carlos

2013-01-01

A new palaeoecological sequence from the western Iberian Central Range significantly contributes to the knowledge on the Holocene vegetation dynamics in central Iberia. This sequence supports the existence of time-transgressive changes in the vegetation cover during the beginning of the Holocene over these central Iberian mountains, specifically the replacement of boreal birch-pine forests with Mediterranean communities. Anthracological analyses also indicate the replacement of boreal pines (Pinus sylvestris) with Mediterranean ones (Pinus pinaster) during the early Holocene. The observed vegetation changes were generally synchronous with climatic phases previously reconstructed for the western Mediterranean region, and they suggest that the climatic trends were most similar to those recorded in the northern Mediterranean region and central Europe. Several cycles of secondary succession after fire ending with the recovery of mature forest have been identified, which demonstrates that the vegetation of western Iberia was highly resilient to fire disturbance. However, when the recurrence of fire crossed a certain threshold, the original forests were not able to completely recover and shrublands and grasslands became dominant; this occurred approximately 5800-5400 cal yr BP. Afterwards, heathlands established as the dominant vegetation, which were maintained by frequent and severe wildfires most likely associated with human activities in a climatic framework that was less suitable for temperate trees. Finally, our palaeoecological record provides guidelines on how to manage protected areas in Mediterranean mountains of southwestern Europe, especially regarding the conservation and restoration of temperate communities that are threatened there such as birch stands.

Holocene evolution of the Tabasco delta – Mexico : impact of climate, volcanism and humans

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nooren, C.A.M.

2017-01-01

This research revealed the impact of climate, volcanism and humans on the late Holocene evolution of a tropical delta in southern Mexico. Palynological, tephrochronological, limnological, geomorphological and sedimentological techniques have been applied to reconstruct the evolution of the

An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

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Yu Li

Full Text Available The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to

Holocene glacier and climate variations in Vestfirðir, Iceland, from the modeling of Drangajökull ice cap

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Anderson, Leif S.; Flowers, Gwenn E.; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna Th; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.; Harning, David J.; Thorsteinsson, Thorsteinn; Magnússon, Eyjólfur; Pálsson, Finnur

2018-06-01

Drangajökull is a maritime ice cap located in northwest (Vestfirðir) Iceland. Drangajökull's evolution is therefore closely linked to atmospheric and ocean variability. In order to better constrain the Holocene climate and glacier history of Vestfirðir we model the past evolution of Drangajökull ice cap. Simulations from 10 ka to present are forced by general circulation model output, ice-core-based temperature reconstructions, and sea-surface temperature reconstructions. Based on these 10-thousand year simulations, Drangajökull did not persist through the Holocene. We estimate that air temperatures were 2.5-3.0 °C higher during the Holocene Thermal Maximum than the local 1960-1990 average. Simulations support Drangajökull's late Holocene inception between 2 and 1 ka, though intermittent ice likely occupied cirques as early as 2.6 ka. Drangajökull is primarily a Little Ice Age ice cap: it expanded between 1300 and 1750 CE, with the most rapid growth occurring between 1600 and 1750 CE. The maximum Holocene extent of Drangajökull occurred between 1700 and 1925 CE, despite the lowest late Holocene temperatures, occurring between 1650 and 1720 CE. Between 1700 and 1925 CE temperatures were likely 0.6-0.8 °C lower than the 1950-2015 reference temperature. The modern equilibrium line altitude (ELA) is bracketed by topographic thresholds: a 1 °C temperature increase from the modern ELA would eliminate the ice cap's accumulation area, while a reduction of 0.5 °C would lead to the rapid expansion of the ice cap across Vestfirðir. The proximity of Drangajökull to topographic thresholds may explain its late inception and rapid expansion during the Little Ice Age.

Holocene climate variability revealed by oxygen isotope analysis of Sphagnum cellulose from Walton Moss, northern England

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Daley, T. J.; Barber, K. E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Loader, N. J.; Marshall, J. D.; Crowley, S. F.; Fisher, E. H.

2010-07-01

Stable isotope analyses of Sphagnum alpha-cellulose, precipitation and bog water from three sites across northwestern Europe (Raheenmore, Ireland, Walton Moss, northern England and Dosenmoor, northern Germany) over a total period of 26 months were used to investigate the nature of the climatic signal recorded by Sphagnum moss. The δ18O values of modern alpha-cellulose tracked precipitation more closely than bog water, with a mean isotopic fractionation factor αcellulose-precipitation of 1.0274 ± 0.001 (1 σ) (≈27‰). Sub-samples of isolated Sphagnum alpha-cellulose were subsequently analysed from core WLM22, Walton Moss, northern England yielding a Sphagnum-specific isotope record spanning the last 4300 years. The palaeo-record, calibrated using the modern data, provides evidence for large amplitude variations in the estimated oxygen isotope composition of precipitation during the mid- to late Holocene. Estimates of palaeotemperature change derived from statistical relationships between modern surface air temperatures and δ18O precipitation values for the British Isles give unrealistically large variation in comparison to proxies from other archives. We conclude that use of such relationships to calibrate mid-latitude palaeo-data must be undertaken with caution. The δ18O record from Sphagnum cellulose was highly correlated with a palaeoecologically-derived index of bog surface wetness (BSW), suggesting a common climatic driver.

Late Holocene Hydrologic Variability in the southeast Mojave Desert using sediments from Ford Lake, California

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Leidelmeijer, J.; Kirby, M.; Anderson, W. T., Jr.; Mayer, S. A.; Palermo, J. A.; Stout, C.; Shellhorn, A.; Weisberg, G.; Rangel, H.; Hess, B.

2017-12-01

Most published lacustrine studies located in the Mojave Desert focus on lakes that receive the majority of their water from the Mojave River (e.g., Silver Lake, Cronese Lakes, Soda Lake, etc). Consequently, these Mojave River-fed lake sites record coastal hydroclimatic signals rather than a solely Mojave-only signal. The reason for this signal-disconnect is that the Mojave River is sourced in the San Bernardino Mountains, where annual precipitation is dictated by coastal hydroclimates. Therefore, much remains unknown about how the Mojave Desert changed during the Holocene at sub-millennial time scales. To address this problem and fill in an important geographical gap, we focus on Ford Lake in the southeastern Mojave Desert. Ford Lake is an internally drained, closed basin, and it is completely disconnected from the Mojave River. As a result, it represents one of the first lakes studied in the Mojave Desert with a climate signal that is 100% Mojave. Sediments from Ford Lake provide valuable context for understanding hydroclimatic variability exclusive to the Mojave Desert. To date, two hand-dug 1.5 m trenches (depocenter and littoral zone) and 3 overlapping sediments cores from the lake's depocenter have been sampled. The total core length is 3.55 m and bottomed in coarse alluvium, suggesting we captured the complete lacustrine sediment package. Initial results by Mayer (2016) focused on the most recent 1200 calendar years before present, or the upper 2.16 m. Mayer (2016) found evidence for increased run-off (wetter climate) during the Little Ice Age and reduced run-off (drier climate) during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly. Here, we complete the study, improving age control using sediment charcoal. Grain size, magnetic susceptibility, percent total organic matter, percent total carbonate content, C:N ratios and C and N isotopic analyses are (will be) measured at 1 cm contiguous intervals. The Ford Lake record has been (will be) compared to pre-existing regional

Holocene aridification of India

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Ponton, C.; Giosan, L.; Eglinton, T.I.; Fuller, D.Q.; Johnson, J.E.; Kumar, P.; Collett, T.S.

2012-01-01

Spanning a latitudinal range typical for deserts, the Indian peninsula is fertile instead and sustains over a billion people through monsoonal rains. Despite the strong link between climate and society, our knowledge of the long-term monsoon variability is incomplete over the Indian subcontinent. Here we reconstruct the Holocene paleoclimate in the core monsoon zone (CMZ) of the Indian peninsula using a sediment core recovered offshore from the mouth of Godavari River. Carbon isotopes of sedimentary leaf waxes provide an integrated and regionally extensive record of the flora in the CMZ and document a gradual increase in aridity-adapted vegetation from ???4,000 until 1,700 years ago followed by the persistence of aridity-adapted plants after that. The oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber detects unprecedented high salinity events in the Bay of Bengal over the last 3,000 years, and especially after 1,700 years ago, which suggest that the CMZ aridification intensified in the late Holocene through a series of sub-millennial dry episodes. Cultural changes occurred across the Indian subcontinent as the climate became more arid after ???4,000 years. Sedentary agriculture took hold in the drying central and south India, while the urban Harappan civilization collapsed in the already arid Indus basin. The establishment of a more variable hydroclimate over the last ca. 1,700 years may have led to the rapid proliferation of water-conservation technology in south India. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

Origin and dynamics of the northern South American coastal savanna belt during the Holocene - the role of climate, sea-level, fire and humans

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Alizadeh, Kamaleddin; Cohen, Marcelo; Behling, Hermann

2015-08-01

Presence of a coastal savanna belt expanding from British Guiana to northeastern Brazil cannot be explained by present-day climate. Using pollen and charcoal analyses on an 11.6 k old sediment core from a coastal depression in the savanna belt near the mouth of the Amazon River we investigated the paleoenvironmental history to shed light on this question. Results indicate that small areas of savanna accompanied by a forest type composed primarily by the genus Micropholis (Sapotaceae) that has no modern analog existed at the beginning of the Holocene. After 11,200 cal yr BP, savanna accompanied by few trees replaced the forest. In depressions swamp forest developed and by ca 10,000 cal yr BP replaced by Mauritia swamps. Between 8500 and 5600 cal yr BP gallery forest (composed mainly of Euphorbiaceae) and swamp forest succeeded the treeless savanna. The modern vegetation with alternating gallery forest and savanna developed after 5600 cal yr BP. We suggest that the early Holocene no-analog forest is a relict of previously more extensive forest under cooler and moister Lateglacial conditions. The early Holocene savanna expansion indicates a drier phase probably related to the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) towards its northernmost position. The mid-Holocene forest expansion is probably a result of the combined influence of equatorwards shift of ITCZ joining the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The ecosystem variability during the last 5600 cal yr BP, formed perhaps under influence of intensified ENSO condition. High charcoal concentrations, especially during the early Holocene, indicate that natural and/or anthropogenic fires may have maintained the savanna. However, our results propose that climate change is the main driving factor for the formation of the coastal savanna in this region. Our results also show that the early Holocene sea level rise established mangroves near the study site until 7500 cal yr BP and promoted swamp formation in

Exploring the Causes of Mid-Holocene Drought in the Rocky Mountains Using Hydrologic Forward Models

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Meador, E.; Morrill, C.

2017-12-01

We present a quantitative model-data comparison for mid-Holocene (6 ka) lake levels in the Rocky Mountains, with the goals of assessing the skill coupled climate models and hydrologic forward models in simulating climate change and improving our understanding of the factors causing past changes in water resources. The mid-Holocene climate in this area may in some ways be similar to expected future climate, thus improved understanding of the factors causing past changes in water resources have the potential to aid in the process of water allocation for large areas that share a relatively small water source. This project focuses on Little Windy Hill Pond in the Medicine Bow Forest in the Rocky Mountains in southern Wyoming. We first calibrated the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) catchment hydrologic model and the one-dimensional Hostetler Bartlein lake energy-balance model to modern observations, using U.S. Geological Survey stream discharge data and Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) data to ensure appropriate selection of model parameters. Once the models were calibrated to modern conditions, we forced them with output from eight mid-Holocene coupled climate model simulations completed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5. Forcing from nearly all of the CMIP5 models generates intense, short-lived droughts for the mid-Holocene that are more severe than any we modeled for the past six decades. The severity of the mid-Holocene droughts could be sufficient, depending on sediment processes in the lake, to account for low lake levels recorded by loss-on-ignition in sediment cores. Our preliminary analysis of model output indicates that the combined effects of decreased snowmelt runoff and increased summer lake evaporation cause low mid-Holocene lake levels. These factors are also expected to be important in the future under anthropogenic climate change.

Tracking climate variability in the western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene: A multiproxy approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nieto-Moreno, V.; Martínez-Ruiz, F.; Giralt, S.; Jimenéz-Espejo, F.; Gallego-Torres, D.; Rodrigo-Gámiz, M.; Garcia-Orellana, J.; Ortega-Huertas, M.; de Lange, G.J.

2011-01-01

Climate variability in the western Mediterranean is reconstructed for the last 4000 yr using marine sediments recovered in the west Algerian-Balearic basin, near the Alboran basin. Fluctuations in chemical and mineralogical sediment composition as well as grain size distribution are linked to

Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activities in Languedoc (Southern France)

OpenAIRE

J. Azuara; N. Combourieu-Nebout; V. Lebreton; F. Mazier; S. D. Müller; L. Dezileau

2015-01-01

Holocene climate fluctuations and human activities since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to reconstruct Mediterranean paleoenvironments over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics ove...

Integrating the EMPD with an Alpine altitudinal training set to reconstruct climate variables in Holocene pollen records from high-altitude peat bogs

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Furlanetto, Giulia; Badino, Federica; Brunetti, Michele; Champvillair, Elena; De Amicis, Mattia; Maggi, Valter; Pini, Roberta; Ravazzi, Cesare; Vallé, Francesca

2016-04-01

Temperatures and precipitation are the main environmental factors influencing vegetation and pollen production. Knowing the modern climate optima and tolerances of those plants represented in fossil assemblages and assuming that the relationships between plants and climate in the past are not dissimilar from the modern ones, fossil pollen records offer many descriptors to reconstruct past climate variables. The aim of our work is to investigate the potential of high-altitude pollen records from an Alpine peat bog (TBValter, close to the Ruitor Glacier, Western Italian Alps) for quantitative paleoclimate estimates. The idea behind is that high-altitude ecosystems are more sensitive to climate changes, especially to changes in July temperatures that severely affect the timberline ecotone. Meantime, we met with difficulties when considering the factors involved in pollen dispersal over a complex altitudinal mountain pattern, such as the Alps. We used the EMPD-European Modern Pollen Database (Davis et al., 2013) as modern training set to be compared with our high-altitude fossil site. The EMPD dataset is valuable in that it provides a large geographic coverage of main ecological and climate gradients (at sub-continental scale) but lacks in sampling of altitudinal gradients and high-altitude sites in the Alps. We therefore designed an independent altitudinal training set for the alpine valley hosting our fossil site. 27 sampling plots were selected along a 1700m-elevational transect. In a first step, each plot was provided with (i) 3 moss polsters collected following the guidelines provided by Cañellas-Boltà et al. (2009) and analyzed separately to account for differences in pollen deposition at small scale, (ii) morphometrical parameters obtained through a high-resolution DEM, and (iii) temperature and precipitation were estimated by means of weighted linear regression of the meteorological variable versus elevation, locally evaluated for each site (Brunetti et al

Diatom Stratigraphy of FA-1 Core, Qarun Lake, Records of Holocene Environmental and Climatic Change in Faiyum Oasis, Egypt

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Zalat Abdelfattah A.

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This study evaluates changes in the environmental and climatic conditions in the Faiyum Oasis during the Holocene based on diatom analyses of the sediment FA-1 core from the southern seashore of the Qarun Lake. The studied FA-1 core was 26 m long and covered the time span ca. 9.000 cal. yrs BP. Diatom taxa were abundant and moderately to well-preserved throughout the core sediments. Planktonic taxa were most abundant than the benthic and epiphytic forms, which were very rare and sparsely distributed. The most dominant planktonic genera were Aulacoseira and Stephanodiscus followed by frequently distribution of Cyclostephanos and Cyclotella species. The stratigraphic distribution patterns of the recorded diatoms through the Holocene sediments explained five ecological diatom groups. These groups represent distinctive environmental conditions, which were mainly related to climatic changes through the early and middle Holocene, in addition to anthropogenic activity during the late Holocene. Comparison of diatom assemblages in the studied sediment core suggests that considerable changes occurred in water level as well as salinity. There were several high stands of the freshwater lake level during humid, warmer-wet climatic phases marked by dominance of planktonic, oligohalobous and alkaliphilous diatoms alternated with lowering of the lake level and slight increases in salinity and alkalinity during warm arid conditions evident by prevalence of brackish water diatoms.

Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene vegetation and climate in southern Italy: the case of Lago Trifoglietti

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S. Joannin

2012-12-01

Full Text Available A high-resolution pollen record from Lago Trifoglietti in Calabria (southern Italy provides new insights into the paleoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic changes which characterise the Holocene period in the southern Italy. The chronology is based on 11 AMS radiocarbon dates from terrestrial organic material. The Holocene history of the vegetation cover shows the persistence of an important and relatively stable Fagus forest present over that entire period, offering a rare example of a beech woodstand able to withstand climate changes for more than 11 000 yr. Probably in relation with early Holocene dry climate conditions which affected southern Italy, the Trifoglietti pollen record supports a southward delay in thermophyllous forest expansion dated to ca. 13 500 cal BP at Monticchio, ca. 11 000 cal BP at Trifoglietti, and finally ca. 9800 cal BP in Sicily. Regarding the human impact history, the Trifoglietti pollen record shows only poor imprints of agricultural activities and anthopogenic indicators, apart from those indicating pastoralism activities beneath forest cover. The selective exploitation of Abies appears to have been the strongest human impact on the Trifoglietti surroundings. On the basis of (1 a specific ratio between hygrophilous and terrestrial taxa, and (2 the Modern Analogue Technique, the pollen data collected at Lago Trifoglietti led to the establishment of two palaeoclimatic records tracing changes in (1 lake depth and (2 annual precipitation. On a millennial scale, these records give evidence of increasing moisture from ca. 11 000 to ca. 9400 cal BP and maximum humidity from ca. 9400 to ca. 6200 cal BP, prior to a general trend towards the drier climate conditions that have prevailed up to the present. In addition, several successive centennial-scale oscillations appear to have punctuated the entire Holocene. The identification of a cold dry event around 11 300 cal BP, responsible for a marked decline in

Reconstruction of past climate variability in SE Spain between 14 and 8 ka

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Budsky, Alexander; Scholz, Denis; Mertz-Kraus, Regina; Christoph, Spötl; Gibert, Luis; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Andreae, Meinrat O.

2016-04-01

In comparison to the large climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene, Holocene climate only underwent minor changes. Nevertheless, cyclic climate changes also occurred during the Holocene. The Bond events, represented by the presence of cold, ice-bearing waters from the north of Iceland as far south as the latitude of Britain, occurred at a cyclicity of about 1500 a and were particularly pronounced during the Early Holocene. However, their climatic impact on the terrestrial realm was not consistent over Europe, in particular with respect to changes in precipitation. Here we present a precisely dated high-resolution flowstone record from Cueva Victoria, SE Spain, a site well suited to study the competing influence of the Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea on the southern Iberian Peninsula. We sampled several flowstones with a thickness of up to 60 cm. 230Th/U-dating has shown that these deposits mainly formed during relatively warm climate intervals of the Middle and Late Pleistocene, i.e. interglacials and interstadials (Budsky et al., 2015; Gibert et al., 2016). Here we focus on a short (11 cm) flowstone sequence from the Holocene with a high temporal resolution (centennial for stable isotopes and annual for trace elements). The flowstone grew between 14 and ca. 8 ka b2k. The decreasing trend of the δ18O and δ13C values as well as of several trace elements between 12 and 11 ka b2k reflects an increase in temperature and precipitation at the beginning of the Holocene. In particular, Sr and Mg show a trend towards low and stable values. Subsequently, from 10.5 to 8 ka b2k, the δ13C values show a high variability (-11 to -4), whereas the δ18O values are rather stable (between -6 and -7). Maxima in δ13C are interpreted as drier conditions in response to Bond events. These events possibly led to a change of the atmospheric circulation, affecting the vegetation in SE Spain, which evolved towards an open C3 vegetation at ca. 8 ka b2k concomitant with drier conditions

Synchronicity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon variability and Northern Hemisphere climate change since the last deglaciation

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Shinozaki, T.; Uchida, M.; Minoura, K.; Kondo, M.; Rella, S. F.; Shibata, Y.

2011-06-01

Understanding of the mechanism of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is required for the prediction of climate change in East Asia in a scenario of modern global warming. In this study, we present high-resolution climate records from peat sediments in Northeast Japan to reconstruct the EASM variability based on peat bulk cellulose δ13C since the last deglaciation. We used a 8.8 m long peat sediment core collected from the Tashiro Bog, Northeast Japan. Based on 42 14C measurements, the core bottom reaches ~15.5 ka. δ13C, accumulation rate and accumulation flux time-series correlate well to Greenland ice core δ18O variability, suggesting that the climate record in Northeast Japan is linked to global climate changes. The δ13C record at Tashiro Bog and other paleo-EASM records at Northeast and Southern China consistently demonstrate that hydrological environments were spatially different in mid-high and mid-low latitude regions over the last 15.5 kyr. During global cooling (warming) periods, mid-high and mid-low latitude regions were characterized by wet (dry) and dry (wet) environments, respectively. We suggest that these climatic patterns are related to the migration of the EASM-related rain belt during global climate changes, as a consequence of variations in intensity and location of both the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (STH). The location of the rain belt largely influences the East Asian hydrological environment. Our δ13C time-series are characterized by a 1230 yr throughout the Holocene and a 680 yr periodicity during the early Holocene. The 1230 yr periodicity is in agreement with North Atlantic ice-rafted debris (IRD) events, suggesting a teleconnection between the Northeast Japan and the North Atlantic during the Holocene. In addition, it is the first evidence that the Bond events were recorded in terrestrial sediment in Japan. On the other hand, the 680 yr periodicity between 10.0 and 8.0 kyr is

Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

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Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Maycock, A.; Valdes, P. J.

2017-12-01

The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 ka to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40-50° N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5 ka - 8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing did not play a significant role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

The Late-Glacial and Holocene Marboré Lake sequence (2612 m a.s.l., Central Pyrenees, Spain): Testing high altitude sites sensitivity to millennial scale vegetation and climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Leunda, Maria; González-Sampériz, Penélope; Gil-Romera, Graciela; Aranbarri, Josu; Moreno, Ana; Oliva-Urcia, Belén; Sevilla-Callejo, Miguel; Valero-Garcés, Blas

2017-10-01

This paper presents the environmental, climate and vegetation changes reconstructed for the last 14.6 kyr cal BP from the Marboré Lake sedimentary sequence, the highest altitude record (2612 m a.s.l.) in the Pyrenees studied up to date. We investigate the sensitivity of this high altitude site to vegetational and climate dynamics and altitudinal shifts during the Holocene by comparing palynological spectra of the fossil sequence and pollen rain content from current moss pollsters. We hypothesize that the input of sediments in lakes at such altitude is strongly controlled by ice phenology (ice-free summer months) and that during cold periods Pollen Accumulation Rate (PAR) and Pollen Concentration (PC) reflect changes in ice-cover and thus is linked to temperature changes. Low sedimentation rates and low PC and PAR occurred during colder periods as the Younger Dryas (GS-1) and the Holocene onset (12.6-10.2 kyr cal BP), suggesting that the lake-surface remained ice-covered for most of the year during these periods. Warmer conditions are not evident until 10.2 kyr cal BP, when an abrupt increase in sedimentation rate, PC and PAR occur, pointing to a delayed onset of the Holocene temperature increase at high altitude. Well-developed pinewoods and deciduous forest dominated the mid montane belt since 9.3 kyr cal BP until mid-Holocene (5.2 kyr cal BP). A downwards shift in the deciduous forest occurred after 5.2 kyr cal BP, in agreement with the aridity trend observed at a regional and Mediterranean context. The increase of herbaceous taxa during the late-Holocene (3.5 kyr cal BP-present) reflects a general trend to reduced montane forest, as anthropogenic disturbances were not evident until 1.3 kyr cal BP when Olea proportions from lowland areas and other anthropogenic indicators clearly expand. Our study demonstrates the need to perform local experimental approaches to check the effect of ice phenology on high altitude lakes sensitivity to vegetation changes to obtain

Late Holocene spatio-temporal variability of the south Greenland Ice Sheet and adjacent mountain glaciers

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Sinclair, G.; Carlson, A. E.; Rood, D. H.; Axford, Y.

2017-12-01

The late Holocene, with its spatially complex pattern of centennial-scale climate variation, is an ideal time period to test the response of the cryosphere to atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. The south Greenland Ice Sheet (sGrIS), with its proximity to areas of North Atlantic Deep Water formation and a large spectrum of glaciological regimes over a relatively small area, provides an excellent location to examine the spatial heterogeneity of ice-sheet and glacier responses to climate change. Here, we will present 50 Be-10 surface exposure ages from eight moraines in six locations around the margin of the sGrIS. These moraines are located just outboard of historical moraines, and will therefore allow us to constrain the timing of the most extensive prehistoric late-Holocene advance and retreat of ice margins draining the sGrIS and independent valley glaciers. The dataset includes both marine- and land-terminating glaciers draining the sGrIS, the low-altitude Qassimiut lobe, the high-altitude alpine Julianhåb ice cap and isolated valley glaciers. This diverse dataset will allow us to determine to what extent late-Holocene centennial-scale behavior of the ice-sheet and glacier margins were synchronous, perhaps in response to an external climate forcing, or more stochastic, governed instead by local factors such as basal thermal regime, bedrock topography, or microclimates. This has implications for understanding the forcings and responses of cryospheric changes at timescales relevant to human society. In addition to providing context for paleoclimatic and glacial geologic investigations, this work will inform future sea-level projections by providing targets for validating high-resolution ice-sheet and glacier models.

Causes of early Holocene desertification in arid central Asia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jin, Liya [Lanzhou University, Key Laboratory of Western China' s Environmental System, Lanzhou, Gansu (China); University of Kiel, Institute of Geosciences, Kiel (Germany); Chen, Fahu [Lanzhou University, Key Laboratory of Western China' s Environmental System, Lanzhou, Gansu (China); Morrill, Carrie [University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States); NOAA' s National Climatic Data Center, Paleoclimatology Branch, Boulder, CO (United States); Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Rosenbloom, Nan [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO (United States)

2012-04-15

Paleoclimate records of effective moisture (precipitation minus evaporation, or P-E) show a dry (low effective moisture) period in mid-latitude arid/semi-arid central Asia during the early Holocene (11,000-8,000 years ago) relative to the middle and late Holocene, in contrast to evidence for greater-than-present precipitation at the same time in the south and east Asian monsoonal areas. To investigate the spatial differences in climate response over mid-latitude central Asia and monsoonal Asia we conducted a series of simulations with the Community Climate System Model version 3 coupled climate model for the early, middle and late Holocene. The simulations test the climatic impact of all important forcings for the early Holocene, including changes in orbital parameters, the presence of the remnant Laurentide ice sheet and deglacial freshening of the North Atlantic. Model results clearly show the early Holocene patterns indicated by proxy records, including both the decreased effective moisture in arid central Asia, which occurs in the model primarily during the winter months, and the increase in summer monsoon precipitation in south and east Asia. The model results suggest that dry conditions in the early Holocene in central Asia are closely related to decreased water vapor advection due to reduced westerly wind speed and less evaporation upstream from the Mediterranean, Black, and Caspian Seas in boreal winter. As an extra forcing to the early Holocene climate system, the Laurentide ice sheet and meltwater fluxes have a substantial cooling effect over high latitudes, especially just over and downstream of the ice sheets, but contribute only to a small degree to the early Holocene aridity in central Asia. Instead, most of the effective moisture signal can be explained by orbital forcing decreasing the early Holocene latitudinal temperature gradient and wintertime surface temperature. We find little evidence for regional subsidence related to a stronger summer Asian

Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activity in Languedoc (southern France)

OpenAIRE

Azuara , J; Combourieu-Nebout , N; Lebreton , V; Mazier , F; Müller , S D; Dezileau , L ,

2015-01-01

International audience; Holocene climate fluctuations and human activity since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediter-ranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to better understand Mediterranean pale-oenvironmental changes over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High-resolution pollen analyses were un-dertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamic...

Late Holocene monsoon climate as evidenced by proxy records from a lacustrine sediment sequence in western Guangdong, South China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Wei; Cao, jiayuan; Xue, Jibin; Ouyang, Jun; Tang, Xiaohong; Yin, Huanling; Liao, Congyun; Long, Kun

2014-02-01

The study of a 300-cm-thick exposed lacustrine sediment section in the Hedong village in Zhaoqing area which is located in sub-tropical west Guangdong Province in South China, demonstrates that the lacustrine sedimentary sequence possibly contains evidence for exploring variation of Asian monsoon climate. Multi-proxy records, including the humification intensity, total organic carbon, and grain size fractions, reveal a general trend towards dry and cold conditions in the late Holocene that this is because of a decrease in solar insolation on an orbital scale. Three intensified Asian summer monsoon (ASM) intervals (˜3300-3000 cal yr BP, ˜2600-1600 cal yr BP, and ˜900-600 cal yr BP), and three weakened ASM intervals (˜4000-3300 cal yr BP, ˜3000-2600 cal yr BP, and ˜1600-900 cal yr BP) are identified. Our humification record (HDcal) shows a good correlation on multi-centennial scale with the tree ring Δ14C record, a proxy of solar activity. A spectral analysis of HDcal reveals four significant cycles, i.e., ˜1250 yr, 300 yr, 110 yr, and 70 yr, and most of these cycles are related to the solar activity. Our findings indicate that solar output and oceanic-atmospheric circulation probably have influenced the late Holocene climate variability in the study region.

Large floods and climatic change during the Holocene on the Ara River, Central Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Grossman, Michael J.

2001-07-01

A reconstruction of part of the Holocene large flood record for the Ara River in central Japan is presented. Maximum intermediate gravel-size dimensions of terrace and modern floodplain gravels were measured along an 18-km reach of the river and were used in tractive force equations to estimate minimum competent flood depths. Results suggest that the magnitudes of large floods on the Ara River have varied in a non-random fashion since the end of the last glacial period. Large floods with greater magnitudes occurred during the warming period of the post-glacial and the warmer early to middle Holocene (to ˜5500 years BP). A shift in the magnitudes of large floods occurred ˜5500-5000 years BP. From this time, during the cooler middle to late Holocene, large floods generally had lower magnitudes. In the modern period, large flood magnitudes are the largest in the data set. As typhoons are the main cause of large floods on the Ara River in the modern record, the variation in large flood magnitudes suggests that the incidence of typhoon visits to the central Japan changed as the climate changed during the Holocene. Further, significant dates in the large flood record on the Ara River correspond to significant dates in Europe and the USA.

A first look at the ACER-SST dataset: Mapping the spatio-temporal variability of sea-surface temperatures in the last Glacial and the Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Rehfeld, Kira; Laepple, Thomas; Bassinot, Franck; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Desprat, Stéphanie; Kim, Jung-Hyun; Fernanda Sánchez-Goñi, Maria; Harrison, Sandy

2016-04-01

Climate in the last Glacial was characterized by abrupt and large-scale changes around cold Heinrich-Events and warm Dansgaard-Oeschger excursions in the Northern high latitudes. The global repercussions of these periods of rapid dynamics are, to date, unconstrained. Here, we present a first statistical analysis of the global multi-proxy ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) sea surface temperature dataset, spanning the last 80 thousand years, to investigate the spatial footprints of glacial climate dynamics. In a first step we evaluate the spatial and temporal variability throughout the Glacial period, and contrast them with that during the Holocene. In a second step we investigate to which extent a temporal synchroneity of extreme events during the Glacial is detectable in the proxy records, and analyze the reversibility of Glacial dynamics.

Simulation of the Holocene climate evolution in Nothern Africa: the termination of the African Humid Period.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Renssen, H.; Brovkin, V.; Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H.

2006-01-01

The Holocene climate evolution in Northern Africa is studied in a 9000-yr-long transient simulation with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model forced by changes in insolation and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The model simulates in the monsoonal domains a significant decrease in

Climate variations of Central Asia on orbital to millennial timescales.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Hai; Spötl, Christoph; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Sinha, Ashish; Wassenburg, Jasper A; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Scholz, Denis; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Peng, Youbing; Lv, Yanbin; Zhang, Pingzhong; Votintseva, Antonina; Loginov, Vadim; Ning, Youfeng; Kathayat, Gayatri; Edwards, R Lawrence

2016-11-11

The extent to which climate variability in Central Asia is causally linked to large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon on varying timescales remains a longstanding question. Here we present precisely dated high-resolution speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and trace element records of Central Asia's hydroclimate variability from Tonnel'naya cave, Uzbekistan, and Kesang cave, western China. On orbital timescales, the supra-regional climate variance, inferred from our oxygen isotope records, exhibits a precessional rhythm, punctuated by millennial-scale abrupt climate events, suggesting a close coupling with the Asian monsoon. However, the local hydroclimatic variability at both cave sites, inferred from carbon isotope and trace element records, shows climate variations that are distinctly different from their supra-regional modes. Particularly, hydroclimatic changes in both Tonnel'naya and Kesang areas during the Holocene lag behind the supra-regional climate variability by several thousand years. These observations may reconcile the apparent out-of-phase hydroclimatic variability, inferred from the Holocene lake proxy records, between Westerly Central Asia and Monsoon Asia.

Contrasting Responses of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem between the Holocene and MIS5e Interglacials Revealed from Multiple Sediment Records

Science.gov (United States)

Salvatteci, R.; Schneider, R. R.; Blanz, T.; Martinez, P.; Crosta, X.

2016-12-01

The Humboldt Current Ecosystem (HCE) off Peru yields about 10% of the global fish catch, producing more fish per unit area than any other region in the world. The high productivity is maintained by the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water from the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), driven by strong trade winds. However, the potential impacts of climate change on upwelling dynamics and oceanographic conditions in the near future are uncertain, threatening local and global economies. Here, we unravel the response of the HCE to contrasting climatic conditions during the last two interglacials (i.e. Holocene and MIS5e) providing an independent insight about the relation between climatic factors and upwelling and productivity dynamics. For this purpose, we used multiple cores to reconstruct past changes in OMZ and upwelling intensity, productivity and fish biomass variability. Chronologies for the Holocene were obtained by multiple 14C ages and laminae correlations among cores, while for the MIS5e they were mainly done by correlation of prominent features in several proxies with other published records. We used a multiproxy approach including alkenones to reconstruct sea surface temperatures, δ15N as a proxy for water column denitrification, redox sensitive metals as proxies for sediment redox conditions, and diatom and fish debris assemblages to reconstruct ecological changes. The results show a very different response of the HCE to climate conditions during the last 2 interglacials, likely driven by changes in Tropical Pacific dynamics. During the Holocene we find that 1) the Late Holocene exhibits higher multi-centennial scale variability compared to the Early Holocene, 2) increased upwelling and a weak OMZ during the mid-Holocene, and 3) long term increase in productivity (diatoms and fishes) from the Early to the Late Holocene. During the MIS5e we find an 1) intense OMZ, 2) strong water column stratification, 3) high siliceous biomass, and 4) low fish biomass compared

Latest Holocene Climate Variability revealed by a high-resolution multiple Proxy Record off Lisbon (Portugal)

Science.gov (United States)

Abrantes, F.; Lebreiro, S.; Ferreira, A.; Gil, I.; Jonsdottir, H.; Rodrigues, T.; Kissel, C.; Grimalt, J.

2003-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is known to have a major influence on the wintertime climate of the Atlantic basin and surrounding countries, determining precipitation and wind conditions at mid-latitudes. A comparison of Hurrel's NAO index to the mean winter (January-March) discharge of the Iberian Tagus River reveals a good negative correlation to negative NAO, while the years of largest upwelling anomalies, as referred in the literature, appear to be in good agreement with positive NAO. On this basis, a better understanding of the long-term variability of the NAO and Atlantic climate variability can be gained from high-resolution climate records from the Lisbon area. Climate variability of the last 2,000 years is assessed through a multiple proxy study of sedimentary sequences recovered from the Tagus prodelta deposition center, off Lisbon (Western Iberia). Physical properties, XRF and magnetic properties from core logging, grain size, δ18O, TOC, CaCO3, total alkenones, n-alkanes, alkenone SST, diatoms, benthic and planktonic foraminiferal assemblage compositions and fluxes are the proxies employed. The age model for site D13902 is based on AMS C-14 dates from mollusc and planktonic foraminifera shells, the reservoir correction for which was obtained by dating 3 pre-bomb, mollusc shells from the study area. Preliminary results indicate a Little Ice Age (LIA - 1300 - 1600 AD) alkenone derived SSTs around 15 degC followed by a sharp and rapid increase towards 19 degC. In spite the strong variability observed for most records, this low temperature interval is marked by a general increase in organic carbon, total alkenone concentration, diatom and foraminiferal abundances, as well as an increase in the sediment fine fraction and XRF determined Fe content, pointing to important river input and higher productivity. The Medieval Warm Period (1080 - 1300 AD) is characterized by 17-18 degC SSTs, increased mean grain size, but lower magnetic susceptibility and Fe

Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. C. Hargreaves

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Paleoclimate simulations provide us with an opportunity to critically confront and evaluate the performance of climate models in simulating the response of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing and other boundary conditions. Hargreaves et al. (2011 analysed the reliability of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, PMIP2 model ensemble with respect to the MARGO sea surface temperature data synthesis (MARGO Project Members, 2009 for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP. Here we extend that work to include a new comprehensive collection of land surface data (Bartlein et al., 2011, and introduce a novel analysis of the predictive skill of the models. We include output from the PMIP3 experiments, from the two models for which suitable data are currently available. We also perform the same analyses for the PMIP2 mid-Holocene (6 ka BP ensembles and available proxy data sets. Our results are predominantly positive for the LGM, suggesting that as well as the global mean change, the models can reproduce the observed pattern of change on the broadest scales, such as the overall land–sea contrast and polar amplification, although the more detailed sub-continental scale patterns of change remains elusive. In contrast, our results for the mid-Holocene are substantially negative, with the models failing to reproduce the observed changes with any degree of skill. One cause of this problem could be that the globally- and annually-averaged forcing anomaly is very weak at the mid-Holocene, and so the results are dominated by the more localised regional patterns in the parts of globe for which data are available. The root cause of the model-data mismatch at these scales is unclear. If the proxy calibration is itself reliable, then representativity error in the data-model comparison, and missing climate feedbacks in the models are other possible sources of error.

Holocene seasonal variability inferred from multiple proxy records from Crevice Lake, Yellowstone National Park, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Whitlock, Cathy; Dean, Walter E.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Stevens, Lora R.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Power, Mitchell J.; Rosenbaum, Joseph R.; Pierce, Kenneth L.; Bracht-Flyr, Brandi B.

2012-01-01

the Roman Warm Period (~ 2000 cal yr BP) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (1200–800 cal yr BP). Long springs and mild summers occurred during the Little Ice Age, and these conditions persist to the present. Although the proxy data indicate effectively wet summer conditions in the early Holocene and drier conditions in the middle and late Holocene, none point specifically to changes in summer precipitation as the cause. Instead, summer conditions were governed by multi-seasonal controls on effective moisture that operated over multiple time scales.

Megalake Chad impact on climate and vegetation during the late Pliocene and the mid-Holocene

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C. Contoux

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Given the growing evidence for megalakes in the geological record, assessing their impact on climate and vegetation is important for the validation of palaeoclimate simulations and therefore the accuracy of model–data comparison in lacustrine environments. Megalake Chad (MLC occurrences are documented not only for the mid-Holocene but also for the Mio-Pliocene (Schuster et al., 2009. At this time, the surface covered by water would have reached up to ~350 000 km2 (Ghienne et al., 2002; Schuster et al., 2005; Leblanc et al., 2006, making it an important evaporation source, possibly modifying climate and vegetation in the Chad Basin. We investigated the impact of such a giant continental water area in two different climatic backgrounds within the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (PMIP3: the late Pliocene (3.3 to 3 Ma, i.e. the mid-Piacenzian warm period and the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP. In all simulations including MLC, precipitation is drastically reduced above the lake surface because deep convection is inhibited by overlying colder air. Meanwhile, convective activity is enhanced around MLC because of the wind increase generated by the flat surface of the megalake, transporting colder and moister air towards the eastern shore of the lake. The effect of MLC on precipitation and temperature is not sufficient to widely impact vegetation patterns. Nevertheless, tropical savanna is present in the Chad Basin in all climatic configurations, even without MLC presence, showing that the climate itself is the driver of favourable environments for sustainable hominid habitats.

Late Glacial to Early Holocene socio-ecological responses to climatic instability within the Mediterranean basin

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-López de Pablo, Javier; Jones, Samantha E.; Burjachs, Francesc

2018-03-01

The period spanning the Late Glacial and the Early Holocene (≈19-8.2 ka) witnessed a dramatic sequence of climate and palaeoenvironmental changes (Rasmussen et al., 2014). Interestingly, some of the most significant transformations ever documented in human Prehistory took place during this period such as the intensification of hunter-gatherer economic systems, the domestication process of wild plants and animals, and the spread of farming across Eurasia. Understanding the role of climate and environmental dynamics on long-term cultural and economic trajectories, as well as specific human responses to episodes of rapid climate change, still remains as one of the main challenges of archaeological research (Kintigh et al., 2014).

A Stalagmite record of Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon variability from the Australian tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Denniston, Rhawn F.; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Polyak, Victor J.; Brown, Josephine R.; Asmerom, Yemane; Wanamaker, Alan D.; LaPointe, Zachary; Ellerbroek, Rebecca; Barthelmes, Michael; Cleary, Daniel; Cugley, John; Woods, David; Humphreys, William F.

2013-10-01

Oxygen isotopic data from a suite of calcite and aragonite stalagmites from cave KNI-51, located in the eastern Kimberley region of tropical Western Australia, represent the first absolute-dated, high-resolution speleothem record of the Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) from the Australian tropics. Stalagmite oxygen isotopic values track monsoon intensity via amount effects in precipitation and reveal a dynamic Holocene IASM which strengthened in the early Holocene, decreased in strength by 4 ka, with a further decrease from ˜2 to 1 ka, before strengthening again at 1 ka to years to levels similar to those between 4 and 2 ka. The relationships between the KNI-51 IASM reconstruction and those from published speleothem time series from Flores and Borneo, in combination with other data sets, appear largely inconsistent with changes in the position and/or organization of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Instead, we argue that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may have played a dominant role in driving IASM variability since at least the middle Holocene. Given the muted modern monsoon rainfall responses to most El Niño events in the Kimberley, an impact of ENSO on regional monsoon precipitation over northwestern Australia would suggest non-stationarity in the long-term relationship between ENSO forcing and IASM rainfall, possibly due to changes in the mean state of the tropical Pacific over the Holocene.

New evidence for "far-field" Holocene sea level oscillations and links to global climate records

Science.gov (United States)

Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Clark, T. R.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Zhao, J.-x.

2018-04-01

Rising sea level in the coming century is of significant concern, yet predicting relative sea level change in response to eustatic sea level variability is complex. Potential analogues are provided by the recent geological past but, until recently, many sea level reconstructions have been limited to millennial scale interpretations due to age uncertainties and paucity in proxy derived records. Here we present a sea level history for the tectonically stable "far-field" Great Barrier Reef, Australia, derived from 94 high precision uranium-thorium dates of sub-fossil coral microatolls. Our results provide evidence for at least two periods of relative sea level instability during the Holocene. These sea level oscillations are broadly synchronous with Indo-Pacific negative sea surface temperature anomalies, rapid global cooling events and glacial advances. We propose that the pace and magnitude of these oscillations are suggestive of eustatic/thermosteric processes operating in conjunction with regional climatic controls.

Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activities in Languedoc (Southern France)

Science.gov (United States)

Azuara, J.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Lebreton, V.; Mazier, F.; Müller, S. D.; Dezileau, L.

2015-09-01

Holocene climate fluctuations and human activities since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to reconstruct Mediterranean paleoenvironments over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics over the last 4500 years. Results are compared with climatic, historical and archeological archives. A long-term aridification trend is highlighted during the Late Holocene and three superimposed arid events are recorded at 4600-4300, 2800-2400 and 1300-1100 cal BP. These periods of climatic instability coincide in time with the rapid climatic events depicted in the Atlantic Ocean (Bond et al., 2001). From the Bronze Age (4000 cal BP) to the end of the Iron Age (around 2000 cal BP), the spread of evergreen taxa and loss of forest cover result from anthropogenic impact. The Antiquity is characterized by a major reforestation event related to the concentration of rural activities and populations in coastal plains leading to forest recovery in the mountains. A major regional deforestation occurred at the beginning of the High Middle Ages. Around 1000 cal BP, forest cover is minimal while cover of olive, chestnut and walnut expands in relation to increasing human influence. The present day vegetation dominated by Mediterranean shrubland and pines has been in existence since the beginning of the 20th century.

Isotope heterogeneity of Pre-Holocene groundwater in Iceland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sveinbjörnsdóttir, Á.E.; Arnorsson, S.; Heinemeier, Jan

2007-01-01

In recent years, it has been shown that groundwater with a Pre-Holocene component is more common in the Icelandic bedrock than previously thought. Some of the Pre-Holocene water samples are more depleted in delta H-2 and delta O-18 than any mean annual precipitation in Iceland today due to the cold...... climate at that time. However, most often Pre-Holocene water components cannot be detected based on the water isotopes alone due to mixing with younger and isotopically heavier water. The Cl concentration in relation to the water isotopes in specific areas has proved to be a good indicator of a Pre......-Holocene component in the groundwater. The deuterium excess value may also help to identify water from a different climate regime, if no oxygen shift has occurred. The relative abundance of a Pre-Holocene water component of the Icelandic groundwater has led to the understanding that combined interpretation of water...

Deglacial and Holocene sea-ice variability north of Iceland and response to ocean circulation changes

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Xiaotong; Zhao, Meixun; Knudsen, Karen Luise; Sha, Longbin; Eiríksson, Jón; Gudmundsdóttir, Esther; Jiang, Hui; Guo, Zhigang

2017-08-01

Sea-ice conditions on the North Icelandic shelf constitute a key component for the study of the climatic gradients between the Arctic and the North Atlantic Oceans at the Polar Front between the cold East Icelandic Current delivering Polar surface water and the relatively warm Irminger Current derived from the North Atlantic Current. The variability of sea ice contributes to heat reduction (albedo) and gas exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, and further affects the deep-water formation. However, lack of long-term and high-resolution sea-ice records in the region hinders the understanding of palaeoceanographic change mechanisms during the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Here, we present a sea-ice record back to 15 ka (cal. ka BP) based on the sea-ice biomarker IP25, phytoplankton biomarker brassicasterol and terrestrial biomarker long-chain n-alkanols in piston core MD99-2272 from the North Icelandic shelf. During the Bølling/Allerød (14.7-12.9 ka), the North Icelandic shelf was characterized by extensive spring sea-ice cover linked to reduced flow of warm Atlantic Water and dominant Polar water influence, as well as strong meltwater input in the area. This pattern showed an anti-phase relationship with the ice-free/less ice conditions in marginal areas of the eastern Nordic Seas, where the Atlantic Water inflow was strong, and contributed to an enhanced deep-water formation. Prolonged sea-ice cover with occasional occurrence of seasonal sea ice prevailed during the Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka) interrupted by a brief interval of enhanced Irminger Current and deposition of the Vedde Ash, as opposed to abruptly increased sea-ice conditions in the eastern Nordic Seas. The seasonal sea ice decreased gradually from the Younger Dryas to the onset of the Holocene corresponding to increasing insolation. Ice-free conditions and sea surface warming were observed for the Early Holocene, followed by expansion of sea ice during the Mid-Holocene.

Insolation driven biomagnetic response to Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

OpenAIRE

Liu, S.; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

2015-01-01

The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8 ka and decrease at ~5.9 ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively wit...

Terrestrial climate variability and seasonality changes in the Mediterranean region between 15 000 and 4000 years BP deduced from marine pollen records

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Dormoy

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Pollen-based climate reconstructions were performed on two high-resolution pollen marines cores from the Alboran and Aegean Seas in order to unravel the climatic variability in the coastal settings of the Mediterranean region between 15 000 and 4000 years BP (the Lateglacial, and early to mid-Holocene. The quantitative climate reconstructions for the Alboran and Aegean Sea records focus mainly on the reconstruction of the seasonality changes (temperatures and precipitation, a crucial parameter in the Mediterranean region. This study is based on a multi-method approach comprising 3 methods: the Modern Analogues Technique (MAT, the recent Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling/Generalized Additive Model method (NMDS/GAM and Partial Least Squares regression (PLS. The climate signal inferred from this comparative approach confirms that cold and dry conditions prevailed in the Mediterranean region during the Oldest and Younger Dryas periods, while temperate conditions prevailed during the Bølling/Allerød and the Holocene. Our records suggest a West/East gradient of decreasing precipitation across the Mediterranean region during the cooler Late-glacial and early Holocene periods, similar to present-day conditions. Winter precipitation was highest during warm intervals and lowest during cooling phases. Several short-lived cool intervals (i.e. Older Dryas, another oscillation after this one (GI-1c2, Gerzensee/Preboreal Oscillations, 8.2 ka event, Bond events connected to the North Atlantic climate system are documented in the Alboran and Aegean Sea records indicating that the climate oscillations associated with the successive steps of the deglaciation in the North Atlantic area occurred in both the western and eastern Mediterranean regions. This observation confirms the presence of strong climatic linkages between the North Atlantic and Mediterranean regions.

A Late Glacial to Holocene record of environmental change from Lake Dojran (Macedonia, Greece

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A. Francke

2013-02-01

Full Text Available A Late Glacial to Holocene sediment sequence (Co1260, 717 cm from Lake Dojran, located at the boarder of the F.Y.R. of Macedonia and Greece, has been investigated to provide information on climate variability in the Balkan region. A robust age-model was established from 13 radiocarbon ages, and indicates that the base of the sequence was deposited at ca. 12 500 cal yr BP, when the lake-level was low. Variations in sedimentological (H2O, TOC, CaCO3, TS, TOC/TN, TOC/TS, grain-size, XRF, δ18Ocarb, δ13Ccarb, δ13Corg data were linked to hydro-acoustic data and indicate that warmer and more humid climate conditions characterised the remaining period of the Younger Dryas until the beginning of the Holocene. The Holocene exhibits significant environmental variations, including the 8.2 and 4.2 ka cooling events, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. Human induced erosion processes in the catchment of Lake Dojran intensified after 2800 cal yr BP.

Transient coupling relationships of the Holocene Australian monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

McRobie, F. H.; Stemler, T.; Wyrwoll, K.-H.

2015-08-01

The northwest Australian summer monsoon owes a notable degree of its interannual variability to interactions with other regional monsoon systems. Therefore, changes in the nature of these relationships may contribute to variability in monsoon strength over longer time scales. Previous attempts to evaluate how proxy records from the Indonesian-Australian monsoon region correspond to other records from the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions, as well as to El Niño-related proxy records, have been qualitative, relying on 'curve-fitting' methods. Here, we seek a quantitative approach for identifying coupling relationships between paleoclimate proxy records, employing statistical techniques to compute the interdependence of two paleoclimate time series. We verify the use of complex networks to identify coupling relationships between modern climate indices. This method is then extended to a set of paleoclimate proxy records from the Asian, Australasian and South American regions spanning the past 9000 years. The resulting networks demonstrate the existence of coupling relationships between regional monsoon systems on millennial time scales, but also highlight the transient nature of teleconnections during this period. In the context of the northwest Australian summer monsoon, we recognise a shift in coupling relationships from strong interhemispheric links with East Asian and ITCZ-related proxy records in the mid-Holocene to significantly weaker coupling in the later Holocene. Although the identified links cannot explain the underlying physical processes leading to coupling between regional monsoon systems, this method provides a step towards understanding the role that changes in teleconnections play in millennial-to orbital-scale climate variability.

Insolation driven biomagnetic response to the Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

OpenAIRE

Liu, Suzhen; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig A.; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

2015-01-01

The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8?ka and decrease at ~5.9?ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively wit...

Late Holocene climate and environmental change from Asiul cave speleothems: interpretations in light of modern cave monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Andrew; Wynn, Peter; Barker, Philip; Leng, Melanie; Noble, Steve; Tych, Wlodek

2017-04-01

Northern Iberia offers an excellent location to study fluctuations in North Atlantic Ocean (NA) conditions and the impact that changes in the NA have on atmospheric systems, which dominate Europe's climate. Two speleothems from Cueva de Asiul (Matienzo, N. Spain) have been used to reconstruct rainfall variability in N. Spain throughout the Holocene (Smith et al., 2016a). The carbonate δ18O records from these speleothems are interpreted in the light of a rigorous modern cave monitoring program undertaken at Cueva de Asiul (Smith et al., 2016b). Drip water δ18O reflects a modern rainfall amount effect whilst δ13C appears influenced by Prior Calcite Precipitation (PCP) in the short term and changes in vegetation at long timescales. The speleothem δ18O shows that long duration ( 1500 year) cycles in wetting and drying are prevalent in N. Spain during the Holocene and that dry climate phases are related to the timing of cold events (Bond et al., 2001) in the NA. Here we look in more detail at one of these speleothems, assessing both δ18O and δ13C during the last two thousand years. We show that Cueva de Asiul speleothems not only preserve long duration climate cycles in δ18O, but that they also appear influenced by shorter duration changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in-sync with other NAO archives (Olsen et al., 2012). However, the Cueva de Asiul record does not appear to preserve a predominately positive NAO signal during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) as is common within many European archives (Trouet et al., 2009), possibly due to the sites' close proximity to the NA and localised oceanic weather systems (Moreno et al., 2012). Alongside climatic changes, the speleothem δ13C shows a clear transition toward higher isotope values around 360 years BP (BP=1950), signalling a major environmental change in the region possibly due to anthropogenic removal of vast swathes of natural forest to support ship building and industry related to the Spanish

How Hot was Africa during the Mid-Holocene? Reexamining Africa's Thermal History via integrated Climate and Proxy System Modeling

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Dee, S.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.

2017-12-01

Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century. Reconstructions of African temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have made fundamental contributions to our understanding of past, present, and future climate and can help constrain predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). However, many of these reconstructions are based on proxies of lake temperature, so the confounding influences of lacustrine processes may complicate our interpretations of past changes in tropical climate. These proxy-specific uncertainties require robust methodology for data-model comparison. We develop a new proxy system model (PSM) for paleolimnology to facilitate data-model comparison and to fully characterize uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Output from GCMs are used to force the PSM to simulate lake temperature, hydrology, and associated proxy uncertainties. We compare reconstructed East African lake and air temperatures in individual records and in a stack of 9 lake records to those predicted by our PSM forced with Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) simulations, focusing on the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). We additionally employ single-forcing transient climate simulations from TraCE (10 kyr to 4 kyr B.P. and historical), as well as 200-yr time slice simulations from CESM1.0 to run the lake PSM. We test the sensitivity of African climate change during the mid-Holocene to orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice-sheet forcing in single-forcing simulations, and investigate dynamical hypotheses for these changes. Reconstructions of tropical African temperature indicate 1-2ºC warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the present, similar to changes predicted in the coming decades. However, most climate models underestimate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data (Fig. 1, 6kyr B.P.). We investigate this discrepancy using the new lake PSM and climate model simulations, with attention to the (potentially non

Southwest Greenland's Alpine Glacier History: Recent Glacier Change in the Context of the Holocene Geologic Record

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Larocca, L. J.; Axford, Y.; Lasher, G. E.; Lee, C. W.

2017-12-01

Due to anthropogenic climate change, the Arctic region is currently undergoing major transformation, and is expected to continue warming much faster than the global average. To put recent and future changes into context, a longer-term understanding of this region's past response to natural climate variability is needed. Given their sensitivity to modest climate change, small alpine glaciers and ice caps on Greenland's coastal margin (beyond the Greenland Ice Sheet) represent ideal features to record climate variability through the Holocene. Here we investigate the Holocene history of a small ( 160 square km) ice cap and adjacent alpine glaciers, located in southwest Greenland approximately 50 km south of Nuuk. We employ measurements on sediment cores from a glacier-fed lake in combination with geospatial analysis of satellite images spanning the past several decades. Sedimentary indicators of sediment source and thus glacial activity, including organic matter abundance, inferred chlorophyll-a content, sediment major element abundances, grain size, and magnetic susceptibility are presented from cores collected from a distal glacier-fed lake (informally referred to here as Per's Lake) in the summer of 2015. These parameters reflect changes in the amount and character of inorganic detrital input into the lake, which may be linked to the size of the upstream glaciers and ice cap and allow us to reconstruct their status through the Holocene. Additionally, we present a complementary record of recent changes in Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) for the upstream alpine glaciers. Modern ELAs are inferred using the accumulation area ratio (AAR) method in ArcGIS via Landsat and Worldview-2 satellite imagery, along with elevation data obtained from digital elevation models (DEMs). Paleo-ELAs are inferred from the positions of moraines and trim lines marking the glaciers' most recent expanded state, which we attribute to the Little Ice Age (LIA). This approach will allow us to

Recent evolution and divergence among populations of a rare Mexican endemic, Chihuahua spruce, following holocene climatic warming

Science.gov (United States)

F. Thomas Ledig; Virginia Jacob-Cervantes; Paul D. Hodgskiss

1997-01-01

Fragmentation and reduction in population size are expected to reduce genetic diversity. However, examples from natural populations of forest trees are scarce. The range of Chihuahua spruce retreated northward and fragmented coincident with the warming climate that marked the early Holocene. The isolated populations vary from 15 to 2441 trees, which provided an...

A persistent Holocene wetting trend in arid central Asia, with wettest conditions in the late Holocene, revealed by multi-proxy analyses of loess-paleosol sequences in Xinjiang, China

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Chen, Fahu; Jia, Jia; Chen, Jianhui; Li, Guoqiang; Zhang, Xiaojian; Xie, Haichao; Xia, Dunsheng; Huang, Wei; An, Chengbang

2016-08-01

There are significant differences in the interpretation of the moisture (precipitation) history of arid central Asia (ACA) during the Holocene, as inferred on one hand from speleothem oxygen isotope records, and on the other from lake sediments. Here we present the results of measurements of climatically-sensitive magnetic properties and soil color from four well-dated loess-paleosol sequences from the northern slopes of the Tienshan Mountains and the Yili River valley, Xinjiang, China, in the core area of ACA. Our results demonstrate that the characteristic Holocene paleosol, indicating relatively moist conditions, generally formed after ∼6 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP) in the study region, and that the accumulation of unweathered loess prevailed during the early Holocene, indicating a dry climate at that time. The magnetic proxies further reveal a trend of generally increasing moisture since the Last Glacial Maximum, with the wettest climate occurring during the late Holocene. This trend of increasing moisture during the Holocene is representative of the Xinjiang region and possibly of the whole of the core area of ACA, and is in marked contrast both to the mid-Holocene moisture maximum observed in the East Asian summer monsoon region and to the general decrease in the strength of the Indian summer monsoon since the early Holocene. Our findings are supported by the results of a climate simulation which indicate a trend of increasing summer and winter precipitation during the Holocene in the core area of ACA, caused mainly by an increase in the strength of the westerlies effected by an increasing latitudinal insolation gradient and by a negative trend of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Response of northern hemisphere environmental and atmospheric conditions to climate changes using Greenland aerosol records from the Eemian to the Holocene

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Fischer, H.

2017-12-01

The Northern Hemisphere experienced dramatic climate changes over the last glacial cycle, including vast ice sheet expansion and frequent abrupt climate events. Moreover, high northern latitudes during the last interglacial (Eemian) were warmer than today and may provide guidance for future climate change scenarios. However, little evidence exists regarding the environmental alterations connected to these climate changes. Using aerosol concentration records in decadal resolution from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) over the last 128,000 years we extract quantitative information on environmental changes, including the first comparison of northern hemisphere environmental conditions between the warmer than present Eemian and the early Holocene. Separating source changes from transport effects, we find that changes in the ice concentration greatly overestimate the changes in atmospheric concentrations in the aerosol source region, the latter mirroring changes in aerosol emissions. Glacial times were characterized by a strong reduction in terrestrial biogenic emissions (only 10-20% of the early Holocene value) reflecting the net loss of vegetated area in mid to high latitudes, while rapid climate changes during the glacial had essentially no effect on terrestrial biogenic aerosol emissions. An increase in terrestrial dust emissions of approximately a factor of eight during peak glacial and cold stadial intervals indicates higher aridity and dust storm activity in Asian deserts. Glacial sea salt aerosol emissions increased only moderately (by approximately 50%), likely due to sea ice expansion, while marked stadial/interstadial variations in sea salt concentrations in the ice reflect mainly changes in wet deposition en route. Eemian ice contains lower aerosol concentrations than ice from the early Holocene, due to shortened atmospheric residence time during the warmer Eemian, suggesting that generally 2°C warmer climate in high northern latitudes did not

Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems.

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Guiot, Joel; Cramer, Wolfgang

2016-10-28

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2°C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implications of warming thresholds for biodiversity and land-use potential. We compare scenarios of climate-driven future change in land ecosystems with reconstructed ecosystem dynamics during the past 10,000 years. Only a 1.5°C warming scenario permits ecosystems to remain within the Holocene variability. At or above 2°C of warming, climatic change will generate Mediterranean land ecosystem changes that are unmatched in the Holocene, a period characterized by recurring precipitation deficits rather than temperature anomalies. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The diatom flora of Lake Kinneret (Israel) - Paleolimnological evidence for Holocene climate change and human impact in the southeastern Mediterranean

Science.gov (United States)

Vossel, Hannah; Reed, Jane M.; Litt, Thomas

2015-04-01

The Mediterranean basin is a region of highly complex topography and climatic variability, such that our understanding of the past environmental variability is still limited. Diatoms (single-celled siliceous algae, Bacillariophyceae) are abundant, diverse and sensitive to a wide range of environmental parameters. They are often well preserved in lake sediment records, and have well-recognised potential to generate high-quality paleolimnological data. Diatoms remain one of the least-exploited proxies in Mediterranean palaeoclimate research. Here, we present results of diatom analysis of an 18 m sediment core from Lake Kinneret (Israel) as part of a multi-proxy study of Holocene climate change and human impact in the Levant (http://www.sfb806.uni-koeln.de). Results are compared with other proxy data including pollen, and with output data from regional climate modelling, to strengthen interpretation of environmental change in the southeastern Mediterranean. The results show remarkable shifts in the diatom flora over the last ca. 8,000 years. Preliminary investigations show that 98% of the diatom taxa can be classified as oligohalobous-indifferent and as alkaliphilous, as is typical of freshwater, alkaline lakes of open hydrology in limestone, karst-dominated catchments. Changes in the diatom data over time can be interpreted mainly in terms of productivity shifts, with a clear trend from oligotrophic at the base to hypereutrophic in the modern lake. The eutrophication trend accelerates after ca. 3,000 cal. yrs. BP, indicating the influence of increased human activity in the catchment, identified previously by analysis of the vegetational history (Schiebel, 2013). The analysis of the composition of the diatom flora also provides some evidence for lake-level fluctuations, as a proxy for shifts in moisture availability. Low lake-level stands are characterized by low diatom concentration and increased relative abundance of littoral taxa. High lake-level stands are marked

Seasonal and interannual variability of the Mid-Holocene East Asian monsoon in coral δ18O records from the South China Sea

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Sun, Donghuai; Gagan, Michael K.; Cheng, Hai; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Dykoski, Carolyn A.; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Su, Ruixia

2005-08-01

Understanding the full range of past monsoon variability, with reference to specific monsoon seasons, is essential to test coupled climate models and improve their predictive capabilities. We present a 54-year long, high-resolution skeletal oxygen isotope (δ18O) record extracted from a well-preserved, massive Porites sp. coral at Hainan Island, South China Sea, to investigate East Asian monsoon variability during summer and winter ∼4400 calendar yr ago. Analysis of modern coral δ18O confirms that Porites from Hainan Island are well positioned to record winter monsoon forcing of sea surface temperature (SST), as well as the influence of summer monsoon rainfall on sea surface salinity (SSS). The coral record for ∼4400 yr ago shows ∼9% amplification of the annual cycle of δ18O, in good agreement with coupled ocean-atmosphere models showing higher summer rainfall (lower coral δ18O) and cooler winter SSTs (higher coral δ18O) in response to greater Northern Hemisphere insolation seasonality during the Middle Holocene. Mean SSTs in the South China Sea during the Mid-Holocene were within 0.5 °C of modern values, yet the mean δ18O for the fossil coral is ∼0.6‰ higher than that for the modern coral, suggesting that the δ18O of surface seawater was higher by at least ∼0.5‰, relative to modern values. The 18O-enrichment is likely to be driven by greater advection of moisture towards the Asian landmass, enhanced monsoon wind-induced evaporation and vertical mixing, and/or invigorated advection of saltier 18O-enriched Pacific water into the relatively fresh South China Sea. The 18O-enrichment of the northern South China Sea ∼4400 yr ago contributes to mounting evidence for recent freshening of the tropical Western Pacific. Today, winter SST and summer SSS variability in the South China Sea reflect the interannual influence of ENSO and the biennial variability inherent to monsoon precipitation. Spectral analysis of winter SSTs ∼4400 yr ago reveals a

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

2014-01-01

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

Holocene changes in climate and vegetation in the Ammassalik area, East Greenland, recorded in lake sediments and soil profiles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jakobsen, Bjarne Holm; Fredskild, Bent; Pedersen, Jørn Bjarke Torp

2008-01-01

, appears to have experienced the warmest Holocene summer conditions, ice-free seas and limited snow covers. The climate situation seems to have been to a considerable extent based on internal regional meteorological processes and largely without strong and regular cyclonic impacts from lower latitudes...

Hydrologic-energy balance constraints on the Holocene lake-level history of lake Titicaca, South America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rowe, H.D.; Dunbar, R.B. [Stanford University, Geological and Environmental Sciences, Stanford, CA (United States)

2004-09-01

A basin-scale hydrologic-energy balance model that integrates modern climatological, hydrological, and hypsographic observations was developed for the modern Lake Titicaca watershed (northern Altiplano, South America) and operated under variable conditions to understand controls on post-glacial changes in lake level. The model simulates changes in five environmental variables (air temperature, cloud fraction, precipitation, relative humidity, and land surface albedo). Relatively small changes in three meteorological variables (mean annual precipitation, temperature, and/or cloud fraction) explain the large mid-Holocene lake-level decrease ({proportional_to}85 m) inferred from seismic reflection profiling and supported by sediment-based paleoproxies from lake sediments. Climatic controls that shape the present-day Altiplano and the sediment-based record of Holocene lake-level change are combined to interpret model-derived lake-level simulations in terms of changes in the mean state of ENSO and its impact on moisture transport to the Altiplano. (orig.)

Hydrologic-energy balance constraints on the Holocene lake-level history of lake Titicaca, South America

Science.gov (United States)

Rowe, H. D.; Dunbar, R. B.

2004-09-01

A basin-scale hydrologic-energy balance model that integrates modern climatological, hydrological, and hypsographic observations was developed for the modern Lake Titicaca watershed (northern Altiplano, South America) and operated under variable conditions to understand controls on post-glacial changes in lake level. The model simulates changes in five environmental variables (air temperature, cloud fraction, precipitation, relative humidity, and land surface albedo). Relatively small changes in three meteorological variables (mean annual precipitation, temperature, and/or cloud fraction) explain the large mid-Holocene lake-level decrease (˜85 m) inferred from seismic reflection profiling and supported by sediment-based paleoproxies from lake sediments. Climatic controls that shape the present-day Altiplano and the sediment-based record of Holocene lake-level change are combined to interpret model-derived lake-level simulations in terms of changes in the mean state of ENSO and its impact on moisture transport to the Altiplano.

The greening of the McGill Paleoclimate Model. Part II: Simulation of Holocene millennial-scale natural climate changes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Yi; Mysak, Lawrence A.; Wang, Zhaomin [McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre (GEC3), Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Brovkin, Victor [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 601203, Potsdam (Germany)

2005-04-01

Various proxy data reveal that in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the middle Holocene (6 kyr BP) was warmer than the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) as well as the later Holocene, up to the end of the pre-industrial period (1800 AD). This pattern of warming and then cooling in the NH represents the response of the climate system to changes in orbital forcing, vegetation cover and the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the Holocene. In an attempt to better understand these changes in the climate system, the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) has been coupled to the dynamic global vegetation model known as VECODE (see Part I of this two-part paper), and a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed with the ''green'' MPM. The model results illustrate the following: (1) the orbital forcing together with the vegetation - albedo feedback result in the gradual cooling of global SAT from about 6 kyr BP to the end of the pre-industrial period; (2) the disappearance of the LIS over the period 8-6 kyr BP, associated with vegetation - albedo feedback, allows the global SAT to increase and reach its maximum at around 6 kyr BP; (3) the northern limit of the boreal forest moves northward during the period 8-6.4 kyr BP due to the LIS retreat; (4) during the period 6.4-0 kyr BP, the northern limit of the boreal forest moves southward about 120 km in response to the decreasing summer insolation in the NH; and (5) the desertification of northern Africa during the period 8-2.6 kyr BP is mainly explained by the decreasing summer monsoon precipitation. (orig.)

A 13000-year, high-resolution multi-proxy record of climate variability with episodes of enhanced atmospheric dust in Western Asia: Evidence from Neor peat complex in NW Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Sharifi, O.; Pourmand, A.; Canuel, E. A.; Peterson, L. C.

2011-12-01

The regional climate over West Asia, extending between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula to the eastern Mediterranean Sea, is governed by interactions between three major synoptic systems; mid-latitude Westerlies, the Siberian Anticyclone and the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon. In recent years, a number of paleoclimate studies have drawn potential links between episodes of abrupt climate change during the Holocene, and the rise and fall of human civilizations across the "Fertile Crescent" of West Asia. High-resolution archives of climate variability from this region, however, are scarce, and at times contradicting. For example, while pollen and planktonic data from lakes in Turkey and Iran suggest that dry, continental conditions prevailed during the early-middle Holocene, oxygen isotope records indicate that relatively wet conditions dominated during this interval over West Asia. We present interannual to decadal multi-proxy records of climate variability from a peat complex in NW Iran to reconstruct changes in moisture and atmospheric dust content during the last 13000 years. Radiocarbon dating on 20 samples from a 775-cm peat core show a nearly constant rate of accumulation (1.7 mm yr-1, R2=0.99) since 13356 ± 116 cal yr B.P. Down-core X-ray fluorescence measurements of conservative lithogenic elements (e.g., Al, Zr, Ti) as well as redox-sensitive elements (e.g., Fe, K, Rb, Zn, Cu, and Co) at 2 mm intervals reveal several periods of elevated dust input to this region since the early Holocene. Down-core variations of total organic carbon and total nitrogen co-vary closely and are inversely correlated with conservative lithogenic elements (Al, Si, Ti), indicating a potential link between climate change and accumulation of organic carbon in the Neor peat mire. Major episodes of enhanced dust deposition (13000-12000, 11700-11200, 9200-8800, 7000-6000, 4200-3200, 2800-2200 and 1500-600 cal yr B.P) are in good agreement with other proxy records that document more arid

Unexpected early extinction of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) in Sweden and climatic impact on its Holocene range.

Science.gov (United States)

Sommer, Robert S; Lindqvist, Charlotte; Persson, Arne; Bringsøe, Henrik; Rhodin, Anders G J; Schneeweiss, Norbert; Siroký, Pavel; Bachmann, Lutz; Fritz, Uwe

2009-03-01

Using ancient DNA sequences of subfossil European pond turtles (Emys orbicularis) from Britain, Central and North Europe and accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dating for turtle remains from most Swedish sites, we provide evidence for a Holocene range expansion of the pond turtle from the southeastern Balkans into Britain, Central Europe and Scandinavia, according to the 'grasshopper pattern' of Hewitt. Northeastern Europe and adjacent Asia were colonized from another refuge located further east. With increasing annual mean temperatures, pond turtles reached southern Sweden approximately 9800 years ago. Until approximately 5500 years ago, rising temperatures facilitated a further range expansion up to Ostergötland, Sweden (approximately 58 degrees 30'N). However, around 5500 years ago pond turtle records suddenly terminate in Sweden, some 1500 years before the Holocene thermal maximum ended in Scandinavia and distinctly earlier than previously thought. This extinction coincides with a temporary cooling oscillation during the Holocene thermal maximum and is likely related to lower summer temperatures deteriorating reproductive success. Although climatic conditions improved later again, recolonization of Sweden from southern source populations was prevented by the Holocene submergence of the previous land connection via the Danish Straits that occurred approximately 8500 years ago.

Tropical Pacific climate variability over the last 6000 years as recorded in Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Diane M.; Conroy, Jessica L.; Collins, Aaron; Hlohowskyj, Stephan R.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Riedinger-Whitmore, Melanie; Cole, Julia E.; Bush, Mark B.; Whitney, H.; Corley, Timothy L.; Kannan, Miriam Steinitz

2017-08-01

Finely laminated sediments within Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos, provide a record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the Holocene. Despite the importance of this sediment record, hypotheses for how climate variability is preserved in the lake sediments have not been tested. Here we present results of long-term monitoring of the local climate and limnology and a revised interpretation of the sediment record. Brown-green, organic-rich, siliciclastic laminae reflect warm, wet conditions typical of El Niño events, whereas carbonate and gypsum precipitate during cool, dry La Niña events and persistent dry periods, respectively. Applying this new interpretation, we find that ENSO events of both phases were generally less frequent during the mid-Holocene ( 6100-4000 calendar years B.P.) relative to the last 1500 calendar years. Abundant carbonate laminations between 3500 and 3000 calendar years B.P. imply that conditions in the Galápagos region were cool and dry during this period when the tropical Pacific E-W sea surface temperature (SST) gradient likely strengthened. The frequency of El Niño and La Niña events then intensified dramatically around 1750-2000 calendar years B.P., consistent with a weaker SST gradient and an increased frequency of ENSO events in other regional records. This strong interannual variability persisted until 700 calendar years B.P., when ENSO-related variability at the lake decreased as the SST gradient strengthened. Persistent, dry conditions then dominated between 300 and 50 calendar years B.P. (A.D. 1650-1900, ± 100 years), whereas wetter conditions and frequent El Niño events dominated in the most recent century.

Coring of Karakel’ Lake sediments (Teberda River valley and prospects for reconstruction of glaciation and Holocene climate history in the Caucasus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. N. Solomina

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Lacustrine sediments represent an important data source for glacial and palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Having a number of certain advantages, they can be successfully used as a means of specification of glacier situation and age of moraine deposits, as well as a basis for detailed climatic models of the Holocene. The article focuses on the coring of sediments of Lake Kakakel (Western Caucasus that has its goal to clarify the Holocene climatic history for the region, providing the sampling methods, lithologic description of the sediment core, obtained radiocarbon dating and the element composition of the sediments. The primary outlook over the results of coring of the sediments of the Lake Karakyol helped to reconsider the conventional opinion on the glacial fluctuations in the valley of Teberda and to assume the future possibility for high-definition palaeoclimatic reconstruction for Western Caucasus.

Patch-reef morphology as a proxy for Holocene sea-level variability, Northern Florida Keys, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Brock, J.C.; Palaseanu-Lovejoy, M.; Wright, C.W.; Nayegandhi, A.

2008-01-01

A portion of the northern Florida Keys reef tract was mapped with the NASA Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) and the morphology of patch reefs was related to variations in Holocene sea level. Following creation of a lidar digital elevation model (DEM), geospatial analyses delineated morphologic attributes of 1,034 patch reefs (reef depth, basal area, height, volume, and topographic complexity). Morphometric analysis revealed two morphologically different populations of patch reefs associated with two distinct depth intervals above and below a water depth of 7.7 m. Compared to shallow reefs, the deep reefs were smaller in area and volume and showed no trend in topographic complexity relative to water depth. Shallow reefs were more variable in area and volume and became flatter and less topographically complex with decreasing water depth. The knoll-like morphology of deep reefs was interpreted as consistent with steady and relatively rapidly rising early Holocene sea level that restricted the lateral growth of reefs. The morphology of shallow 'pancake-shaped' reefs at the highest platform elevations was interpreted as consistent with fluctuating sea level during the late Holocene. Although the ultimate cause for the morphometric depth trends remains open to interpretation, these interpretations are compatible with a recent eustatic sea-level curve that hindcasts fluctuating late Holocene sea level. Thus it is suggested that the morphologic differences represent two stages of reef accretion that occurred during different sea-level conditions. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag.

Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

2017-04-01

Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments

Holocene Multi-Decadal to Millennial-Scale Hydrologic Variability on the South American Altiplano

Science.gov (United States)

Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Ekdahl, E.; Burns, S.

2006-12-01

On orbital timescales, lacustrine sediment records in the tropical central Andes show massive changes in lake level due to mechanisms related to global-scale drivers, varying at precessional timescales. Here we use stable isotopic and diatom records from two lakes in the Lake Titicaca drainage basin to reconstruct multi- decadal to millennial scale precipitation variability during the last 7000 to 8000 years. The records are tightly coupled at multi-decadal to millennial scales with each other and with lake-level fluctuations in Lake Titicaca, indicating that the lakes are recording a regional climate signal. A quantitative reconstruction of precipitation from stable isotopic data indicates that the central Andes underwent significant wet to dry alternations at multi- centennial frequencies with an amplitude of 30 to 40% of total precipitation. A strong millennial-scale component, similar in duration to periods of increased ice rafted debris flux in the North Atlantic, is observed in both lake records, suggesting that tropical North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) variability may partly control regional precipitation. No clear relationship is evident between these records and the inferred ENSO history from Lago Pallcacocha in the northern tropical Andes. In the instrumental period, regional precipitation variability on inter-annual timescales is clearly influenced by Pacific modes; for example, most El Ninos produce dry and warm conditions in this part of the central Andes. However, on longer timescales, the control of tropical Pacific modes is less clear. Our reconstructions suggest that the cold intervals of the Holocene Bond events are periods of increased precipitation in the central Andes, thus indicating an anti-phasing of precipitation variation in the southern tropics of South America relative to the Northern Hemisphere monsoon region.

Peat in the 'Niayes' of Senegal: depositional environment and Holocene evolution

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Lezine, A.-M.; Chateauneuf, J.-J. (Laboratoire de Geologie du Quaternaire, Marseille (France). Faculte des Sciences de Luminy)

1991-01-01

The 'Niayes' peat deposits north of Dakar, in Senegal, provide an unusual opportunity to study the continental and littoral detrital environment of the Holocene in West Africa. These organic deposits, that may attain a thickness of 10 m, accumulated in Late Pleistocene interdune basins whose extent and morphology depend closely upon the palaeohydrologic evolution of and the continental model for this zone during the Holocene. The present sub-Canarian climate of this region allows the preservation of an azonal vegetation of Guinean chorological affinity that is evidence of the wider development of now more southerly vegetation during the older Holocene. The nature of the sedimentary facies of these peatfields is closely related to the altitude of the basins of accumulation and the position of the fresh/salt water interface which conditions the recharge of the shallow aquifer. Thus, fresh-water and mangrove-swamp peats exist more or less closely associated according to the site. {sup 14}C age determination gives ages for these deposits between 12000 B.P. and the present, and detailed palynological studies have shown that there were two periods of climatic optimum, one between 9000 and 7000 B.P. and one between 4000 and 2000 B.P. The highly variable rates of sedimentation (0.2-12,5 mm/y for the continental zones and 2 mm/y for the mangrove swamps) are related to the paleotopography of the water-table or to very local fluctuations of sea level. The evolution of the vegetal biomass, evaluated both qualitatively (relative representation of the various vegetation levels) and quantitatively (concentration of pollen per gram of dry sediment) during the course of the Holocene enables reconstruction of the complete climatic and hydrologic history of the region up to dawn of the Present. 38 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

Broadleaf deciduous forest counterbalanced the direct effect of climate on Holocene fire regime in hemiboreal/boreal region (NE Europe)

Science.gov (United States)

Feurdean, Angelica; Veski, Siim; Florescu, Gabriela; Vannière, Boris; Pfeiffer, Mirjam; O'Hara, Robert B.; Stivrins, Normunds; Amon, Leeli; Heinsalu, Atko; Vassiljev, Jüri; Hickler, Thomas

2017-08-01

Disturbances by fire are essential for the functioning of boreal/hemiboreal forests, but knowledge of long-term fire regime dynamics is limited. We analysed macrocharcoal morphologies and pollen of a sediment record from Lake Lielais Svētiņu (eastern Latvia), and in conjunction with fire traits analysis present the first record of Holocene variability in fire regime, fuel sources and fire types in boreal forests of the Baltic region. We found a phase of moderate to high fire activity during the cool and moist early (mean fire return interval; mFRI of ∼280 years; 11,700-7500 cal yr BP) and the late (mFRI of ∼190 years; 4500-0 cal yr BP) Holocene and low fire activity (mFRI of ∼630 years) during the Holocene Thermal Optimum (7500-4500 cal yr BP). Charcoal morphotypes and the pollen record show the predominance of frequent surface fires, occasionally transitioning to the crown during Pinus sylvestris-Betula boreal forests and less frequent surface fires during the dominance of temperate deciduous forests. In contrast to the prevailing opinion that fires in boreal forests are mostly low to moderate severity surface fires, we found evidence for common occurrence of stand-replacing crown fires in Picea abies canopy. Our results highlight that charcoal morphotypes analysis allows for distinguishing the fuel types and surface from crown fires, therefore significantly advancing our interpretation of fire regime. Future warmer temperatures and increase in the frequency of dry spells and abundant biomass accumulation can enhance the fire risk on the one hand, but will probably promote the expansion of broadleaf deciduous forests to higher latitudes, on the other hand. By highlighting the capability of broadleaf deciduous forests to act as fire-suppressing landscape elements, our results suggest that fire activity may not increase in the Baltic area under future climate change.

New high-resolution record of Holocene climate change in the Weddell Sea from combined biomarker analysis of the Patriot Hills blue ice area

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Fogwill, Christopher; Turney, Chris; Baker, Andy; Ellis, Bethany; Cooper, Alan; Etheridge, David; Rubino, Mauro; Thornton, David; Fernando, Francisco; Bird, Michale; Munksgaard, Niels

2017-04-01

We report preliminary analysis of biomarkers (including dissolved organic matter (DOM) and DNA) from the Patriot Hills blue ice area (BIA), from the Ellsworth Mountains in the Weddell Sea Embayment. Preliminary isotopic and multiple gas analysis (CO2, CH4, N2O and CO) demonstrate that the Holocene comprises more than 50% of the 800m long BIA record, and in combination isotopic and biomarker analysis reveals a remarkable record of centennial variability through the Holocene in this sector of the Weddell Sea. Analysis using a Horiba Aqualog - which measures the fluorescence of DOM by producing a map of the fluorescence through an excitation-emission matrix (EEM) - identifies the presence of two marine protein-like components in both modern snow pit samples and within the Holocene part of Patriot Hills BIA transect. Intriguingly, the modern seasonal trends in DOM, recorded in contemporary snow pits, have relatively low signals compared to those recorded in the mid-Holocene record, suggesting a reduction in DOM signal in contemporary times. Given that the δD excess data suggests the source of precipitation has remained constant through the Holocene, the biomarker signal must relate to multi-year marine productivity signals from the Weddell Sea. The marked variability in DOM between the mid-Holocene and contemporary times can only relate to periods of sustained, enhanced biological productivity in the Weddell Sea associated with shifts in Southern Annular Mode, sea ice variability, changes in ventilation or polynya activity. Here we discuss the possible drivers of these changes and describe how this approach at this BIA could benefit conventional ice core records regionally.

Synthesizing late Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions: Lessons learned, common challenges, and implications for future research

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Rodysill, J. R.

2017-12-01

Proxy-based reconstructions provide vital information for developing histories of environmental and climate changes. Networks of spatiotemporal paleoclimate information are powerful tools for understanding dynamical processes within the global climate system and improving model-based predictions of the patterns and magnitudes of climate changes at local- to global-scales. Compiling individual paleoclimate records and integrating reconstructed climate information in the context of an ensemble of multi-proxy records, which are fundamental for developing a spatiotemporal climate data network, are hindered by challenges related to data and information accessibility, chronological uncertainty, sampling resolution, climate proxy type, and differences between depositional environments. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group has been compiling and integrating multi-proxy paleoclimate data as part of an ongoing effort to synthesize Holocene climate records from North America. The USGS North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group recently completed a late Holocene hydroclimate synthesis for the North American continent using several proxy types from a range of depositional environments, including lakes, wetlands, coastal marine, and cave speleothems. Using new age-depth relationships derived from the Bacon software package, we identified century-scale patterns of wetness and dryness for the past 2000 years with an age uncertainty-based confidence rating for each proxy record. Additionally, for highly-resolved North American lake sediment records, we computed average late Holocene sediment deposition rates and identified temporal trends in age uncertainty that are common to multiple lakes. This presentation addresses strengths and challenges of compiling and integrating data from different paleoclimate archives, with a particular focus on lake sediments, which may inform and guide future paleolimnological studies.

Lateglacial and Holocene climate, disturbance and permafrost peatland dynamics on the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska

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Hunt, Stephanie D.; Yu, Zicheng; Jones, Miriam C.

2013-01-01

Northern peatlands have accumulated large carbon (C) stocks, acting as a long-term atmospheric C sink since the last deglaciation. How these C-rich ecosystems will respond to future climate change, however, is still poorly understood. Furthermore, many northern peatlands exist in regions underlain by permafrost, adding to the challenge of projecting C balance under changing climate and permafrost dynamics. In this study, we used a paleoecological approach to examine the effect of past climates and local disturbances on vegetation and C accumulation at a peatland complex on the southern Seward Peninsula, Alaska over the past ∼15 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP). We analyzed two cores about 30 m apart, NL10-1 (from a permafrost peat plateau) and NL10-2 (from an adjacent thermokarst collapse-scar bog), for peat organic matter (OM), C accumulation rates, macrofossil, pollen and grain size analysis.A wet rich fen occurred during the initial stages of peatland development at the thermokarst site (NL10-2). The presence of tree pollen from Picea spp. and Larix laricinia at 13.5–12.1 ka indicates a warm regional climate, corresponding with the well-documented Bølling–Allerød warm period. A cold and dry climate interval at 12.1–11.1 ka is indicated by the disappearance of tree pollen and increase in Poaceae pollen and an increase in woody material, likely representing a local expression of the Younger Dryas (YD) event. Following the YD, the warm Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) is characterized by the presence of Populus pollen, while the presence of Sphagnum spp. and increased C accumulation rates suggest high peatland productivity under a warm climate. Toward the end of the HTM and throughout the mid-Holocene a wet climate-induced several major flooding disturbance events at 10 ka, 8.1 ka, 6 ka, 5.4 ka and 4.7 ka, as evidenced by decreases in OM, and increases in coarse sand abundance and aquatic fossils (algae Chara and water fleas Daphnia). The initial

Early Holocene humidity patterns in the Iberian Peninsula reconstructed from lake, pollen and speleothem records

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Morellón, Mario; Aranbarri, Josu; Moreno, Ana; González-Sampériz, Penélope; Valero-Garcés, Blas L.

2018-02-01

Comparison of selected, well-dated, lacustrine, speleothem and terrestrial pollen records spanning the Holocene onset and the Early Holocene (ca. 11.7-8 cal kyrs BP) in the Iberian Peninsula shows large hydrological fluctuations and landscape changes with a complex regional pattern in timing and intensity. Marine pollen records from Alboran, the Mediterranean and off shore Atlantic sites show a step-wise increase in moisture and forest during this transition. However, available continental records point to two main patterns of spatial and temporal hydrological variability: i) Atlantic-influenced sites located at the northwestern areas (Enol, Sanabria, Lucenza, PRD-4), characterized by a gradual increase in humidity from the end of the Younger Dryas to the Mid Holocene, similarly to most North Atlantic records; and ii) continental and Mediterranean-influenced sites (Laguna Grande, Villarquemado, Fuentillejo, Padul, Estanya, Banyoles, Salines), with prolonged arid conditions of variable temporal extension after the Younger Dryas, followed by an abrupt increase in moisture at 10-9 cal kyrs BP. Different local climate conditions influenced by topography or the variable sensitivity (gradual versus threshold values) of the proxies analyzed in each case are evaluated. Vegetation composition (conifers versus mesothermophilous taxa) and resilience would explain a subdued response of vegetation in central continental areas while in Mediterranean sites, insufficient summer moisture availability could not maintain high lake levels and promote mesophyte forest, in contrast to Atlantic-influenced areas. Comparison with available climate models, Greenland ice cores, North Atlantic marine sequences and continental records from Central and Northern Europe and the whole Mediterranean region underlines the distinctive character of the hydrological changes occurred in inner Iberia throughout the Early Holocene. The persistent arid conditions might be explained by the intensification

Application of /sup 14/C-dating to sedimentary geology and climatology: Sea-level and climate change during the Holocene

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakai, Nobuyuki; Ohishi, Shyoji; Kuriyama, Toyoko; Nakamura, Toshio

1987-11-01

AMS /sup 14/C dating of small sized fossil shells, wood chips and sedimentary humic matter has been applied to the investigation of paleoclimatic and sea-level changes in the Holocene, using three estuarine and brackish lake sediment cores, drilled in Kawasaki city and Lake Hamanako, Japan. Precise and detailed ages at differing depths clarified large transitions of Holocene sedimentation rates, of two orders of magnitude. The vertical variation in delta/sup 13/C and C/N results for sedimentary organic matter, combined with AMS /sup 14/C ages, established continous climatic and sea-level fluctuation patterns through time and indicated the existence of neoglaciation coincident with the marine regression at 7500 to 7000 yr BP.

Holocene variations of wildfire occurrence as a guide for sustainable management of the northeastern Canadian boreal forest

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Ahmed El-Guellab

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Background Cumulative impacts of wildfires and forest harvesting can cause shifts from closed-crown forest to open woodland in boreal ecosystems. To lower the probability of occurrence of such catastrophic regime shifts, forest logging must decrease when fire frequency increases, so that the combined disturbance rate does not exceed the Holocene maximum. Knowing how climate warming will affect fire regimes is thus crucial to sustainably manage the forest. This study aimed to provide a guide to determine sustainable forest harvesting levels, by reconstructing the Holocene fire history at the northern limit of commercial forestry in Quebec using charcoal particles preserved in lake sediments. Methods Sediment cores were sampled from four lakes located close to the northern limit of commercial forestry in Quebec. The cores were sliced into consecutive 0.5 cm thick subsamples from which 1 cm3 was extracted to count and measure charcoal particles larger than 150 microns. Age-depth models were obtained for each core based on accelerator mass spectroscopy (AMS radiocarbon dates. Holocene fire histories were reconstructed by combining charcoal counts and age-depth models to obtain charcoal accumulation rates and, after statistical treatment, long-term trends in fire occurrence (expressed as number of fires per 1000 years. Results Fire occurrence varied between the four studied sites, but fires generally occurred more often during warm and dry periods of the Holocene, especially during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (7000–3500 cal. BP, when fire occurrence was twice as high as at present. Conclusions The current fire regime in the study area is still within the natural range of variability observed over the Holocene. However, climatic conditions comparable to the Holocene Thermal Maximum could be reached within the next few decades, thus substantially reducing the amount of wood available to the forest industry.

Low-frequency and high-frequency changes in temperature and effective humidity during the Holocene in south-central Sweden: implications for atmospheric and oceanic forcings of climate

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Seppae, H. [University of Helsinki, Department of Geology, 64, Helsinki (Finland); Hammarlund, D. [Lund University, GeoBiosphere Science Centre, Quaternary Sciences, Lund (Sweden); Antonsson, K. [Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden)

2005-08-01

An integrated use of independent palaeoclimatological proxy techniques that reflect different components of the climate system provides a potential key for functional analysis of past climate changes. Here we report a 10,000 year quantitative record of annual mean temperature (T{sub ann}), based on pollen-climate transfer functions and pollen-stratigraphical data from Lake Flarken, south-central Sweden. The pollen-based temperature reconstruction is compared with a reconstruction of effective humidity, as reflected by a {delta}{sup 18}O record obtained on stratigraphy of lacustrine carbonates from Lake Igelsjoen, c. 10 km from Lake Flarken, which gives evidence of pronounced changes in effective humidity. The relatively low T{sub ann}, and high effective humidity as reflected by a low evaporation/inflow ratio suggest a maritime early Holocene climate (10,000-8,300 cal year BP), seemingly incompatible with the highly seasonal solar insolation configuration. We argue that the maritime climate was due to the stronger-than-present zonal flow, enhanced by the high early Holocene sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The maritime climate mode was disrupted by the abrupt cold event at 8,200 cal year BP, followed at 8,000 cal year BP by a stable Holocene Thermal Maximum. The latter was characterized by T{sub ann} values about 2.5 C higher than at present and markedly dry conditions, indicative of stable summer-time anti-cyclonic circulation, possibly corresponding with modern blocking anticyclonic conditions. The last 4,300 year period is characterized by an increasingly cold, moist, and unstable climate. The results demonstrate the value of combining two independent palaeoclimatic proxies in enhancing the reliability, generality, and interpretability of the palaeoclimatic results. Further methodological refinements especially in resolving past seasonal climatic contrasts are needed to better understand the role of different forcing factors in driving millennial

Identification of Holocene millennial-scale forcing in the North Atlantic area: Ocean/atmosphere contribution

Science.gov (United States)

Debret, M.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Christophe, C.; de Vernal, A.; Massei, N.; Eynaud, F.; Nicolle, M.; Frank, N.; Mary, Y.; Magny, M.

2017-12-01

Millennial (1500-year) cycles were evidenced decades ago from the advance and retreat of glaciers but many subsequent studies failed to demonstrate the unequivocal character of such oscillation from paleoclimate time series. Hence, the identification of a persistent 1500 year periodicity remains controversial both for the last glacial episode and the Holocene. Applying wavelet analysis to Holocene climate records, we have identified synchronous millennial-scale oscillations which permit to establish a North Atlantic millennial variability index (NAV-Index), maximum at 5330 ± 245, 3560 ± 190, 1810 ± 160 cal years BP and minimum at 4430 ± 250, 2640 ± 225 and 970 ± 200 years before present. This NAV-index was compared with the millennial variability of cosmogenic 10Be isotope, a proxy of solar activity. Differences between the two sets of records suggest that an internal mechanism (Ocean/atmosphere) must be at the origin of the North Atlantic millennial scale variability. Our data document an increased coherence and magnitude of the North Atlantic millennial variability since 6000 cal. years BP, with a frequency of 1780 ± 240 years. During the early Holocene, deglacial meltwater fluxes had strong regional impact and the coupling between subpolar gyre migration and Atlantic meridional oceanic circulation observed since afterward seems to be related to the end of the Laurentide and Inuitian ice sheet meltwater discharge. Hence, we may conclude that the evolution of this millennial oscillation in the future will depend upon the Greenland stability or melting.

Inferring late-Holocene climate in the Ecuadorian Andes using a chironomid-based temperature inference model

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Matthews-Bird, Frazer; Brooks, Stephen J.; Holden, Philip B.; Montoya, Encarni; Gosling, William D.

2016-06-01

Presented here is the first chironomid calibration data set for tropical South America. Surface sediments were collected from 59 lakes across Bolivia (15 lakes), Peru (32 lakes), and Ecuador (12 lakes) between 2004 and 2013 over an altitudinal gradient from 150 m above sea level (a.s.l) to 4655 m a.s.l, between 0-17° S and 64-78° W. The study sites cover a mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient of 25 °C. In total, 55 chironomid taxa were identified in the 59 calibration data set lakes. When used as a single explanatory variable, MAT explains 12.9 % of the variance (λ1/λ2 = 1.431). Two inference models were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and Bayesian methods. The best-performing model using conventional statistical methods was a WA (inverse) model (R2jack = 0.890; RMSEPjack = 2.404 °C, RMSEP - root mean squared error of prediction; mean biasjack = -0.017 °C; max biasjack = 4.665 °C). The Bayesian method produced a model with R2jack = 0.909, RMSEPjack = 2.373 °C, mean biasjack = 0.598 °C, and max biasjack = 3.158 °C. Both models were used to infer past temperatures from a ca. 3000-year record from the tropical Andes of Ecuador, Laguna Pindo. Inferred temperatures fluctuated around modern-day conditions but showed significant departures at certain intervals (ca. 1600 cal yr BP; ca. 3000-2500 cal yr BP). Both methods (WA and Bayesian) showed similar patterns of temperature variability; however, the magnitude of fluctuations differed. In general the WA method was more variable and often underestimated Holocene temperatures (by ca. -7 ± 2.5 °C relative to the modern period). The Bayesian method provided temperature anomaly estimates for cool periods that lay within the expected range of the Holocene (ca. -3 ± 3.4 °C). The error associated with both reconstructions is consistent with a constant temperature of 20 °C for the past 3000 years. We would caution, however, against an over-interpretation at this stage. The reconstruction can only

Hydrologic and temperature variability at Lake Titicaca over the past 50,000 years

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Fornace, K.; Shanahan, T. M.; Sylva, S.; Ossolinski, J.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Hughen, K. A.

2011-12-01

The Bolivian Altiplano has been the focus of many paleoclimate studies due to the important role it plays in the South American climate system. Although the timing of climate shifts in this region is relatively well known, the magnitudes of hydrologic versus temperature changes remain poorly quantified. Here we apply hydrogen isotope analysis (δD) of terrestrial leaf waxes and the TEX86 temperature proxy in sediments from Lake Titicaca to reconstruct hydrologic and temperature variability over the past 50,000 years. Our record reveals that the Altiplano underwent a major climate shift during the last deglaciation, reflected in a ~70-80% enrichment in leaf wax δD at the onset of the Holocene. Using the global isotope-temperature relationship for meteoric water, only 25-40% of this enrichment can be explained by the 4-5°C deglacial warming shown by the TEX86 proxy, indicating that precipitation was significantly reduced (and evaporation/evapotranspiration increased) during the Holocene. Further, the timing of these hydrologic and temperature changes was asynchronous during the transition from a cold and wet glacial state to a warm and dry Holocene. The major hydrologic shift recorded by leaf wax δD occurred around ~11-12 ka, consistent with Northern Hemisphere deglacial patterns, whereas TEX86 data indicate that rapid warming began much earlier, more typical of a Southern Hemisphere deglacial pattern. Within the late glacial and Holocene mean climate states, however, there is evidence of synchronous hydrologic and temperature variability on millennial timescales. This study demonstrates that climate on the Altiplano was controlled by the interaction of local and remote forcing on a range of timescales.

Solar Variability and Planetary Climates

CERN Document Server

Calisesi, Y; Gray, L; Langen, J; Lockwood, M

2007-01-01

Variations in solar activity, as revealed by variations in the number of sunspots, have been observed since ancient times. To what extent changes in the solar output may affect planetary climates, though, remains today more than ever a subject of controversy. In 2000, the SSSI volume on Solar Variability and Climate reviewed the to-date understanding of the physics of solar variability and of the associated climate response. The present volume on Solar Variability and Planetary Climates provides an overview of recent advances in this field, with particular focus at the Earth's middle and lower atmosphere. The book structure mirrors that of the ISSI workshop held in Bern in June 2005, the collection of invited workshop contributions and of complementary introductory papers synthesizing the current understanding in key research areas such as middle atmospheric processes, stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling, tropospheric aerosols chemistry, solar storm influences, solar variability physics, and terrestri...

Aridity of Central Asia through the Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Aizen, E. M.; Aizen, V. B.; Mayewski, P. A.; Zhou, H.; Rodda, C.; Joswiak, D.; Takeuchi, N.; Fujita, K.; Kurbatov, A.; Grigholm, B. O.

2017-12-01

The dynamics of aridity in Central Asia for over the past 12,000 years has been analyzed using deep ice core records recovered from the Siberian Altai, Tien Shan and Pamir glaciers. An analysis of aridity in the 20-21 centuries based on the long-term meteorological observations complements the paleo- climate reconstruction. The goal of our research is to examine an aridity (at low and high temperatures) in Central Asia as a complex of characteristics including air temperature-precipitation relationship (Koppen, 1918, Geiger, 1961, Mezencev, 1973), intensity of dust loading and biomass burning. The stable isotope ratio, soluble ionic and insoluble particulate geochemical components and oxalate preserved in ice were considered in relation to climatic and environmental changes; and to determine the main aerosol sources using ground- and upper-level meteorological data. Multivariate statistical methods were employed for examination of the main geo-chemical components responsible for the preserved aridity variability. Insoluble particle concentrations preserved in the ice core were affected mainly by precipitation regimes and wind speed. Concentration of all size particles was found to be negatively correlated with monthly temperatures indicating low temperatures during the dry particle deposition. Two abrupt depletions in stable isotope records, i.e., Younger Dryas and Centurial Sever Drought (CSD), occurred during cold, dry, windy periods of intensified dust storms in large desert areas. When climate became colder and drier, the Central Asian deserts extended, wind speeds increased loading mineral dust to atmosphere, which formed inversion while the convection processes and precipitation occurrence were limited. Warmer and wetter conditions are associated with less dust loading that occurred during the Holocene climate optimum, medieval warm and modern warm periods. The sudden climate transitions are accompanied by the most intensifying mineral dust loading. From the

ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using Individual Foraminifera Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Leduc, G.; Vidal, L.; Thirumalai, K.

2017-12-01

The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Recent climate modeling experiments tend to suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño and La Niña events in the future, but these results remain model-dependent and require to be validated by paleodata-model comparisons. Fossil corals indicate that the ENSO variance during the 20th century is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene. Beyond the Holocene, however, little is known on past ENSO changes, which makes difficult to test paleoclimate model simulations that are used to study the ENSO sensitivity to various types of forcings. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, allowing to verify how the IFA method compares with ENSO reconstructions using corals. The dataset then extends back in time to Marine Isotope Stage 6 (MIS), with a special focus the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows, as well as key time periods to tests the sensitivity of ENSO to ice volume and orbital parameters. The new dataset confirms variable ENSO activity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene, as a recent isotope-enabled climate model simulations of the LGM suggests (Zhu et al., 2017). Such pattern is reproduced for the Termination II. Leduc, G., L. Vidal, O. Cartapanis, and E. Bard (2009), Modes of eastern equatorial Pacific thermocline variability: Implications for ENSO dynamics over the last glacial period, Paleoceanography, 24, PA3202, doi:10.1029/2008PA001701. Thirumalai, K., J. W. Partin, C. S. Jackson, and T. M. Quinn (2013

Mid-Holocene Climate and Culture Change in the Atacama Desert, Northern Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Grosjean, Martin; Núñez, Lautaro; Cartajena, Isabel; Messerli, Bruno

1997-09-01

Twenty archaeological campsites intercalated between more than 30 debris flows caused by heavy rainfall events between 6200 and 3100 14C yr B.P. have recently been discovered at Quebrada Puripica in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile. This record provides detailed information about extreme, short-lived climatic events during the hyperarid mid-Holocene period. For the first time, we found evidence of continuous human occupation in this area, filling the regional hiatus in the Atacama basin ("Silencio Arqueologico") between 8000 and 4800 14C yr B.P. The transformation of Early Archaic hunters into the complex Late Archaic cultural tradition was an adaptive process. During this time, the site was a local ecological refuge with abundant resources in a generally hostile environment.

Reconstructing Late Holocene Climate Variability in North East China From Varved Maar Lake Sediments

Science.gov (United States)

Panizzo, V. N.; Mackay, A. W.; Rioual, P.; Chu, G.; Leng, M. J.

2008-12-01

Reconstructing climatic variability over the past c. 2 ka years is recognised as a key PAGES timeframe (focus 2). However few high-resolution records exist from the climate sensitive region of N) China which receives the majority of its precipitation from the east Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Interactions between the EASM and the global climate system have great resonance. Such examples include how the EASM responded to changes in climate over the documented e.g. "Medieval Warm Period" (c. AD 900 - 1300), "Little Ice Age" (c. AD 1350-1850) and recent warming. At present, literature remains contradictory to such environmental changes in NE China over this time-frame due to poor chronological control, low resolution of existing studies and even due to the inexact terminology of these climatic periods. Xiaolongwan Lake (XLW) is a small, closed, maar lake located in the Long Gang Volcanic Field, NE China (42°18'N; 126°19'E). It is at an elevation of 655 m a.s.l. with a maximum depth of 15 m. A varve chronology has been created for a 143 cm composite core (2 cores collected in 2006), and here we present diatoms and organic geochemistry (δ13C, TOC, C/N) evidence for environmental change over the past c. 2 ka years. Results show a gradual change in diatom species, moving from a composition where opportunistic species (e.g. Achnanthidium minutissimum) dominate (between c. 100 BC to 500 years AD) at the beginning of the record to one comprised of benthic/epiphytic species (e.g. Staurosira construens var venter, Punctastriata discoidea, Gomphonema parvulum). The introduction after c. 1850 years AD of the planktonic diatom species, Discotella woltereckii, not previously seen in the record, coincides with recent warming. This may be a response to changing limnological conditions, such as decreasing duration of lake ice-cover. Bulk organic δ13C results conducted on a short core collected from XLW in summer 2007, show that over the past c. 350 years there is a distinct

Last nine-thousand years of temperature variability in Northern Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Seppä

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The threat of future global warming has generated a major interest in quantifying past climate variability on centennial and millennial time-scales. However, palaeoclimatological records are often noisy and arguments about past variability are only possible if they are based on reproducible features in several reliably dated datasets. Here we focus on the last 9000 years, explore the results of 36 Holocene pollen-based July mean and annual mean temperature reconstructions from Northern Europe by stacking them to create summary curves, and compare them with a high-resolution, summary chironomid-based temperature record and other independent palaeoclimate records. The stacked records show that the "Holocene Thermal Maximum" in the region dates to 8000 to 4800 cal yr BP and that the "8.2 event" and the "Little Ice Age" at 500–100 cal yr BP are the clearest cold episodes during the Holocene. In addition, a more detailed analysis of the last 5000 years pinpoints centennial-scale climate variability with cold anomalies at 3800–3000 and 500–100 cal yr BP, a long, warmer period around 2000 cal yr BP, and a marked warming since the mid 19th century. The colder (warmer anomalies are associated with increased (decreased humidity over the northern European mainland, consistent with the modern high correlation between cold (warm and humid (dry modes of summer weather in the region. A comparison with the key proxy records reflecting the main forcing factors does not support the hypothesis that solar variability is the cause of the late-Holocene centennial-scale temperature changes. We suggest that the reconstructed anomalies are typical of Northern Europe and their occurrence may be related to the oceanic and atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic – North-European region.

Holocene Dynamics of Temperate Rainforests in West-Central Patagonia

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Virginia Iglesias

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Analyses of long-term ecosystem dynamics offer insights into the conditions that have led to stability vs. rapid change in the past and the importance of disturbance in regulating community composition. In this study, we (1 used lithology, pollen, and charcoal data from Mallín Casanova (47°S to reconstruct the wetland, vegetation, and fire history of west-central Patagonia; and (2 compared the records with independent paleoenvironmental and archeological information to assess the effects of past climate and human activity on ecosystem dynamics. Pollen data indicate that Nothofagus-Pilgerodendron forests were established by 9,000 cal yr BP. Although the biodiversity of the understory increased between 8,480 and 5,630 cal yr BP, forests remained relatively unchanged from 9,000 to 2,000 cal yr BP. The charcoal record registers high fire-episode frequency in the early Holocene followed by low biomass burning between 6,500 and 2,000 cal yr BP. Covarying trends in charcoal, bog development, and Neoglacial advances suggest that climate was the primary driver of these changes. After 2,000 cal yr BP, the proxy data indicate (a increased fire-episode frequency; (b centennial-scale shifts in bog and forest composition; (c the emergence of vegetation-fire linkages not recorded in previous times; and (d paludification in the last 500 years possibly associated with forest loss. Our results therefore suggest that Nothofagus-Pilgerodendron dominance was maintained through much of the Holocene despite long-term changes in climate and fire. Unparalleled fluctuations in local ecosystems during the last two millennia were governed by disturbance-vegetation-hydrology feedbacks likely triggered by greater climate variability and deforestation.

Holocene aeolian activity in the Dinggye area (Southern Tibet, China)

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Pan, Meihui; Wu, Yongqiu; Zheng, Yinghua; Tan, Lihua

2014-03-01

The Dinggye area (Southern Tibet) contains numerous aeolian sediments, including modern and ancient aeolian sand deposition. In this study, we determined the chronological sequences of several profiles of Holocene paleo-aeolian deposits using Optically Stimulate Luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon (Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) 14C and conventional 14C) dating. Using the grain size, magnetic susceptibility, organic content and chrome characteristics of the deposits, we reconstructed the Holocene aeolian processes in the Dinggye area. The results from the paleo-aeolian depositional record indicate multiple changes in the intensity of aeolian activity and soil fixing with alternations between cool-dry and warm-humid climate conditions in the Dinggye area during the Holocene. From 12.8 ka B.P. to the present, the climate has fluctuated frequently. From 12.8 to 11.6 ka B.P. and from 9.3 to 4.9 ka B.P., the climate was warm and humid with weak aeolian activity, and a sandy paleosol developed. The peak Holocene megathermal period and the main period of pedogenesis in the study area was from 6.6 to 4.9 ka B.P. Between 11.6 and 9.3 ka B.P. and since 2.0 ka B.P., the sandlot expanded due to a cool, dry and windy climate; aeolian activity was strong and caused the development of moving dunes. The period between 4.9 and 2.0 ka B.P. was relatively cool and dry with slightly strengthened aeolian activity that developed stationary and semi-stationary dunes. In general, the Holocene events recorded by the paleo-aeolian deposits correspond well with those interpreted by other methods, such as records from ice-cores, lacustrine deposits and tree rings, but there are minor discrepancies between the methods.

Late holocene primary productivity and sea surface temperature variations in the northeastern Arabian Sea: Implications for winter monsoon variability.

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Boll, A.; Luckge, A.; Munz, P.; Forke, S.; Schulz, H.; Ramaswamy, V.; Rixen, T.; Gaye, B.; Emeis, K.-C.

changes in winter monsoon strength with winds from the northeast that drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity in the northeastern Arabian Sea. To establish a high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene, we...

Holocene tree-line variability in the Kauner Valley, Central Eastern Alps, indicated by dendrochronological analysis of living trees and subfossil logs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nicolussi, Kurt; Kaufmann, Matthias; Patzelt, Gernot; van der Plicht, Johannes; Thurner, Andrea

2005-01-01

The altitude of the Alpine tree-line has often been used as proxy for the climatic conditions in the Holocene epoch. The usual approach for establishing a record for this proxy is the analysis of pollen and macro remains. We analysed living trees and subfossil logs from the timberline ecotone in the

Cosmic rays and climate

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CERN. Geneva

2009-01-01

The current understanding of climate change in the industrial age is that it is predominantly caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, with relatively small natural contributions due to solar irradiance and volcanoes. However, palaeoclimatic reconstructions show that the climate has frequently varied on 100-year time scales during the Holocene (last 10 kyr) by amounts comparable to the present warming - and yet the mechanism or mechanisms are not understood. Some of these reconstructions show clear associations with solar variability, which is recorded in the light radio-isotope archives that measure past variations of cosmic ray intensity. However, despite the increasing evidence of its importance, solar-climate variability is likely to remain controversial until a physical mechanism is established. Estimated changes of solar irradiance on these time scales appear to be too small to account for the climate observations. This raises the question of whether cosmic rays may directly affect the climate, provi...

Response of the everglades ridge and slough landscape to climate variability and 20th-century water management

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Bernhardt, C.E.; Willard, D.A.

2009-01-01

The ridge and slough landscape of the Florida Everglades consists of a mosaic of linear sawgrass ridges separated by deeper-water sloughs with tree islands interspersed throughout the landscape. We used pollen assemblages from transects of sediment cores spanning sawgrass ridges, sloughs, and ridge-slough transition zones to determine the timing of ridge and slough formation and to evaluate the response of components of the ridge and slough landscape to climate variability and 20th-century water management. These pollen data indicate that sawgrass ridges and sloughs have been vegetationally distinct from one another since initiation of the Everglades wetland in mid-Holocene time. Although the position and community composition of sloughs have remained relatively stable throughout their history, modern sawgrass ridges formed on sites that originally were occupied by marshes. Ridge formation and maturation were initiated during intervals of drier climate (the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age) when the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone shifted southward. During these drier intervals, marsh taxa were more common in sloughs, but they quickly receded when precipitation increased. Comparison with regional climate records suggests that slough vegetation is strongly influenced by North Atlantic Oscillation variability, even under 20th-century water management practices. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Impact of millennial-scale Holocene climate variability on eastern North American terrestrial ecosystems: Pollen-based climatic reconstruction

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Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.; Korejwo, D.A.; Meyers, S.R.

2005-01-01

We present paleoclimatic evidence for a series of Holocene millennial-scale cool intervals in eastern North America that occurred every ???1400 years and lasted ???300-500 years, based on pollen data from Chesapeake Bay in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The cool events are indicated by significant decreases in pine pollen, which we interpret as representing decreases in January temperatures of between 0.2??and 2??C. These temperature decreases include excursions during the Little Ice Age (???1300-1600 AD) and the 8 ka cold event. The timing of the pine minima is correlated with a series of quasi-periodic cold intervals documented by various proxies in Greenland, North Atlantic, and Alaskan cores and with solar minima interpreted from cosmogenic isotope records. These events may represent changes in circumpolar vortex size and configuration in response to intervals of decreased solar activity, which altered jet stream patterns to enhance meridional circulation over eastern North America. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability.

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Vázquez, Diego P; Gianoli, Ernesto; Morris, William F; Bozinovic, Francisco

2017-02-01

While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Holocene geologic and climatic history around the Gulf of Alaska

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Mann, D.H.; Crowell, A.L.; Hamilton, T.D.; Finney, B.P.

1998-01-01

Though not as dramatic as during the last Ice Age, pronounced climatic changes occurred in the northeastern Pacific over the last 10,000 years. Summers warmer and drier than today's accompanied a Hypsithermal interval between 9 and 6 ka. Subsequent Neoglaciation was marked by glacier expansion after 5-6 ka and the assembly of modern-type plant communities by 3-4 ka. The Neoglacial interval contained alternating cold and warm intervals, each lasting several hundred years to one millennium, and including both the Medieval Warm Period (ca. AD 900-1350) and the Little Ice Age (ca. AD 1350-1900). Salmon abundance fluctuated during the Little Ice Age in response to local glaciation and probably also to changes in the intensity of the Aleutian Low. Although poorly understood at present, climate fluctuations at all time scales were intimately connected with oceanographic changes in the North Pacific Ocean. The Gulf of Alaska region is tectonically highly active, resulting in a history of frequent geological catastrophes during the Holocene. Twelve to 14 major volcanic eruptions occurred since 12 ka. At intervals of 20-100 years, large earthquakes have raised and lowered sea level instantaneously by meters and generated destructive tsunamis. Sea level has often varied markedly between sites only 50-100 km apart due to tectonism and the isostatic effects of glacier fluctuations.

Past Holocene soil erosion modeling as a new way to decipher human-climate-environment interactions on natural geo-ecosystem over long time-scale.

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Simonneau, Anaëlle; Di Giovanni, Christian; Chapron, Emmanuel

2017-04-01

Soil erosion is a global phenomenon dealing with both environmental, societal and economic issues. Soil erosion is also one of the key processes when it is a matter of Human-climate-environment interactions [1, 2] since if mechanical erosion of continental surfaces initially results from climatic forcing, it can be largely amplified by anthropogenic activities. Using multi-scalar datasets to model long-term (Holocene) erosion fluxes in contrasted areas, where human pressure is well documented by geoarchaeology, we address how landscape evolution, geomorphological processes, ecosystem response and human impacts have been connected over time. Beyond that, such interdisciplinary and integrative approach allow (1) to locally date, qualify, and in particular quantify, both climate variability (rainfall) and impacts of human activities on soils, and (2) to discuss of potential feedback mechanisms and the legacy of past socio-cultural systems on actual geo-ecosystems. Lacustrine sediment represents one of the more relevant natural archives in order to reconstruct environmental or climatic variability and human activities over the past thousand years. Over the last 50 years, the edges of lakes Paladru (low altitude site, 640 m a.s.l.) and Blanc Huez (high-altitude site, 2250 m a.s.l.), both located in Western French Alps and therefore sensitive to the same climatic influences, have been deeply studied by archaeologists who documented and dated periods of enhanced human pressures (agriculture, mining [3, 4]). In these two case-studies, we were therefore able to confront the specific calendars of local human activities with past landscape evolution (vegetation cover, 5) and soil erosion fluxes reconstituted from specific organic tracers quantified into the lacustrine sediments [3, 6]. Results demonstrated that, over the Holocene, climatic forcing, and more particularly glacial fluctuations, influenced human accessibility to high-altitude sites (lake Blanc Huez) and therefore

Lipid biomarkers in Holocene and glacial sediments from ancient Lake Ohrid (Macedonia, Albania

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J. Holtvoeth

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Organic matter preserved in Lake Ohrid sediments originates from aquatic and terrestrial sources. Its variable composition reflects climate-controlled changes in the lake basin's hydrology and related organic matter export, i.e. changes in primary productivity, terrestrial plant matter input and soil erosion. Here, we present first results from lipid biomarker investigations of Lake Ohrid sediments from two near-shore settings: site Lz1120 near the southern shore, with low-lying lands nearby and probably influenced by river discharge, and site Co1202 which is close to the steep eastern slopes. Variable proportions of terrestrial n-alkanoic acids and n-alkanols as well as compositional changes of ω-hydroxy acids document differences in soil organic matter supply between the sites and during different climate stages (glacial, Holocene, 8.2 ka cooling event. Changes in the vegetation cover are suggested by changes in the dominant chain length of terrestrial n-alkanols. Effective microbial degradation of labile organic matter and in situ contribution of organic matter derived from the microbes themselves are both evident in the sediments. We found evidence for anoxic conditions within the photic zone by detecting epicholestanol and tetrahymanol from sulphur-oxidising phototrophic bacteria and bacterivorous ciliates and for the influence of a settled human community from the occurrence of coprostanol, a biomarker for human and animal faeces (pigs, sheep, goats, in an early Holocene sample. This study illustrates the potential of lipid biomarkers for future environmental reconstructions using one of Europe's oldest continental climate archives, Lake Ohrid.

Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures

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Marsicek, Jeremiah; Shuman, Bryan N.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Brewer, Simon

2018-02-01

Cooling during most of the past two millennia has been widely recognized and has been inferred to be the dominant global temperature trend of the past 11,700 years (the Holocene epoch). However, long-term cooling has been difficult to reconcile with global forcing, and climate models consistently simulate long-term warming. The divergence between simulations and reconstructions emerges primarily for northern mid-latitudes, for which pronounced cooling has been inferred from marine and coastal records using multiple approaches. Here we show that temperatures reconstructed from sub-fossil pollen from 642 sites across North America and Europe closely match simulations, and that long-term warming, not cooling, defined the Holocene until around 2,000 years ago. The reconstructions indicate that evidence of long-term cooling was limited to North Atlantic records. Early Holocene temperatures on the continents were more than two degrees Celsius below those of the past two millennia, consistent with the simulated effects of remnant ice sheets in the climate model Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3). CCSM3 simulates increases in ‘growing degree days’—a measure of the accumulated warmth above five degrees Celsius per year—of more than 300 kelvin days over the Holocene, consistent with inferences from the pollen data. It also simulates a decrease in mean summer temperatures of more than two degrees Celsius, which correlates with reconstructed marine trends and highlights the potential importance of the different subseasonal sensitivities of the records. Despite the differing trends, pollen- and marine-based reconstructions are correlated at millennial-to-centennial scales, probably in response to ice-sheet and meltwater dynamics, and to stochastic dynamics similar to the temperature variations produced by CCSM3. Although our results depend on a single source of palaeoclimatic data (pollen) and a single climate-model simulation, they reinforce the notion that

Multi-proxy Organic Geochemical Reconstruction of Holocene Hydroclimate Near the Western Greenland Ice Sheet Margin

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Cluett, A.; Thomas, E. K.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic warming is projected to drive profound change to the Arctic hydrological cycle within the century, most notably in the intensification of rainfall, with potential feedbacks to the climate system and cryosphere. However, the relationship between hydroclimate and cryosphere variability is poorly constrained in the long-term due to a scarcity of high-resolution hydroclimate records from the Arctic. We analyze the stable hydrogen isotopes (dD) of leaf wax biomarkers from lacustrine sediments spanning the Holocene to 9000 cal. year B.P. from Lake Gus (67.032ºN, 52.427ºW, 300 m a.s.l.; informal name), a small lake approximately 90 km from the modern western margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We interpret the signal of aquatic leaf wax isotopes in the context of a survey of 100 modern lake water samples from western Greenland across an aridity gradient to better understand the combined climatological and hydrological controls on lake water dD in the study area. We compare variability of aquatic and terrestrial leaf wax isotopes to infer changes in relative moisture throughout the Holocene, and complement our leaf wax record with analysis of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) and alkenones, to produce records of summer temperature. Pairing temperature and leaf wax isotope records provides a means to constrain the changing dD-temperature relationship throughout the Holocene and infer moisture source variability. In combination, these proxies produce a comprehensive hydroclimate record at approximately centennial scale to evaluate shifts in relative moisture, temperature, and moisture source, and to investigate the interaction between hydroclimate and Greenland Ice Sheet margin fluctuations through the Holocene.

Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic impacts from Lago Paixban, a perennial wetland in Peten, Guatemala

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, David B.; Hansen, Richard D.; Byrne, Roger; Anderson, Lysanna; Schreiner, T.

2016-01-01

Analyses of an ~ 6 m sediment core from Lago Paixban in Peten, Guatemala, document the complex evolution of a perennial wetland over the last 10,300 years. The basal sediment is comprised of alluvial/colluvial fill deposited in the early Holocene. The absence of pollen and gastropods in the basal sediments suggests intermittently dry conditions until ~ 9000 cal yr. BP (henceforth BP) when the basin began to hold water perennially. Lowland tropical forest taxa dominated the local vegetation at this time. A distinct band of carbonate dating to ~ 8200 BP suggests regionally dry conditions, possibly associated with the 8.2 ka event. Wetter conditions during the Holocene Thermal Maximum are indicated by evidence of a raised water level and an open water lake. The timing of this interval coincides with strengthening of the Central American Monsoon. An abrupt change at 5500 BP involved the development of a sawgrass marsh and onset of peat deposition. The lowest recorded water levels date to 5500–4500 BP. Pollen, isotope, geochemical, and sedimentological data indicate that the coring site was near the edge of the marsh during this period. A rise in the water table after 4500 BP persisted until around 3500 BP. Clay marl deposition from 3500 to 210 BP corresponds to the period of Maya settlement. An increase in δ13C, the presence of Zea pollen, and a reduction in the percentage of forest taxa pollen indicate agricultural activity at this time. In contrast to several nearby paleoenvironmental studies, proxy evidence from Lago Paixban indicates human presence through the Classic/Postclassic period transition (~ 1000 BP) and persisting until the arrival of Europeans. Cessation of human activity around 210 BP resulted in local afforestation and the re-establishment of the current sawgrass marsh at Lago Paixban.

Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic impacts from Lago Paixban, a perennial wetland in Peten, Guatemala

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, David; Hansen, Richard D.; Byrne, Roger; Anderson, Lysanna; Schreiner, Thomas

2016-03-01

Analyses of an 6 m sediment core from Lago Paixban in Peten, Guatemala, document the complex evolution of a perennial wetland over the last 10,300 years. The basal sediment is comprised of alluvial/colluvial fill deposited in the early Holocene. The absence of pollen and gastropods in the basal sediments suggests intermittently dry conditions until 9000 cal yr. BP (henceforth BP) when the basin began to hold water perennially. Lowland tropical forest taxa dominated the local vegetation at this time. A distinct band of carbonate dating to 8200 BP suggests regionally dry conditions, possibly associated with the 8.2 ka event. Wetter conditions during the Holocene Thermal Maximum are indicated by evidence of a raised water level and an open water lake. The timing of this interval coincides with strengthening of the Central American Monsoon. An abrupt change at 5500 BP involved the development of a sawgrass marsh and onset of peat deposition. The lowest recorded water levels date to 5500-4500 BP. Pollen, isotope, geochemical, and sedimentological data indicate that the coring site was near the edge of the marsh during this period. A rise in the water table after 4500 BP persisted until around 3500 BP. Clay marl deposition from 3500 to 210 BP corresponds to the period of Maya settlement. An increase in δ13C, the presence of Zea pollen, and a reduction in the percentage of forest taxa pollen indicate agricultural activity at this time. In contrast to several nearby paleoenvironmental studies, proxy evidence from Lago Paixban indicates human presence through the Classic/Postclassic period transition ( 1000 BP) and persisting until the arrival of Europeans. Cessation of human activity around 210 BP resulted in local afforestation and the re-establishment of the current sawgrass marsh at Lago Paixban.

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

2015-01-01

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

Holocene record of precipitation seasonality from lake calcite δ18O in the central Rocky Mountains, United States

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Anderson, Lesleigh

2011-01-01

A context for recent hydroclimatic extremes and variability is provided by a ~10 k.y. sediment carbonate oxygen isotope (??18O) record at 5-100 yr resolution from Bison Lake, 3255 m above sea level, in northwestern Colorado (United States). Winter precipitation is the primary water source for the alpine headwater lake in the Upper Colorado River Basin and lake water ??18O measurements reflect seasonal variations in precipitation ??18O. Holocene lake water ??18O variations are inferred from endogenic sedimentary calcite ??18O based on comparisons with historic watershed discharge records and tree-ring reconstructions. Drought periods (i.e., drier winters and/or a more rain-dominated seasonal precipitation balance) generally correspond with higher calcite ??18O values, and vice-versa. Early to middle Holocene ??18O values are higher, implying a rain-dominated seasonal precipitation balance. Lower, more variable ??18O values after ca. 3500 yr ago indicate a snow-dominated but more seasonally variable precipitation balance. The middle to late Holocene ??18O record corresponds with records of El Ni??o Southern Oscillation intensification that supports a teleconnection between Rocky Mountain climate and North Pacific sea-surface temperatures at decade to century time scales. ?? 2011 Geological Society of America.

Geomorphological and cryostratigraphical analyses of the Zackenberg Valley, NE Greenland and significance of Holocene alluvial fans

Science.gov (United States)

Cable, Stefanie; Christiansen, Hanne H.; Westergaard-Nielsen, Andreas; Kroon, Aart; Elberling, Bo

2018-02-01

In High Arctic northern Greenland, future responses to climatic changes are poorly understood on a landscape scale. Here, we present a study of the geomorphology and cryostratigraphy in the Zackenberg Valley in NE Greenland (74°N) containing a geomorphological map and a simplified geocryological map, combined with analyses of 13 permafrost cores and two exposures. Cores from a solifluction sheet, alluvial fans, and an emerged delta were studied with regards to cryostructures, ice and total carbon contents, grain size distribution, and pore water electrical conductivity; and the samples were AMS 14C dated. The near-surface permafrost on slopes and alluvial fans is ice rich, as opposed to the ice-poor epigenetic permafrost in the emerged delta. Ground ice and carbon distribution are closely linked to sediment transport processes, which largely depend on lithology and topography. Holocene alluvial fans on the lowermost hillslopes, covering 12% of the study area, represent paleoenvironmental archives. During the contrasting climates of the Holocene, the alluvial fans continued to aggrade - through the warmer early Holocene Optimum, the colder late Holocene, and the following climate warming - and by 0.45 mm a- 1, on average. This is caused by three factors: sedimentation, ground ice aggradation, and vegetation growth and is reflected by AMS 14C dating and continuously alternating cryostructures. Highly variable sedimentation rates in space and time at the alluvial fans have been detected. This is also reflected by alternating lenticular and microlenticular cryostructures indicating syngenetic permafrost aggradation during sedimentation with suspended and organic-matrix cryostructures indicating quasi-syngenetic permafrost aggradation in response to vegetation growth in periods with reduced or no sedimentation. Over time, this causes organic matter to become buried, indicating that alluvial fans represent effective carbon sinks that have previously been overlooked.

Contrasting evidence of Holocene ice margin retreat, south-western Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levy, L. B.; Larsen, N. K.; Davidson, T. A.

2017-01-01

Constraining the Greenland Ice Sheet's (GrIS) response to Holocene climate change provides calibrations for ice sheet models that hindcast past ice margin fluctuations. Ice sheet models predict enhanced ice retreat in south-western Greenland during the middle Holocene; however, few geological...... observations corroborating the extensive retreat are available. We present new data from lake sediment cores from the Isua region, south-western Greenland, which provide constraints on Holocene fluctuations of the GrIS margins. Our data indicate that the main GrIS margin was 30 km west of its present...

An ikaite record of late Holocene climate at the Antarctic Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Zunli; Rickaby, Rosalind E. M.; Kennedy, Hilary; Kennedy, Paul; Pancost, Richard D.; Shaw, Samuel; Lennie, Alistair; Wellner, Julia; Anderson, John B.

2012-04-01

Calcium carbonate can crystallize in a hydrated form as ikaite at low temperatures. The hydration water in ikaite grown in laboratory experiments records the δ18O of ambient water, a feature potentially useful for reconstructing δ18O of local seawater. We report the first downcore δ18O record of natural ikaite hydration waters and crystals collected from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), a region sensitive to climate fluctuations. We are able to establish the zone of ikaite formation within shallow sediments, based on porewater chemical and isotopic data. Having constrained the depth of ikaite formation and δ18O of ikaite crystals and hydration waters, we are able to infer local changes in fjord δ18O versus time during the late Holocene. This ikaite record qualitatively supports that both the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age extended to the Antarctic Peninsula.

Recently studied sedimentary records from the eastern Arabian Sea: Implications to Holocene monsoonal variability

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Agnihotri, R.; Kurian, S.

stream_size 72460 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Earth_Sci_India_1_258.pdf.txt stream_source_info Earth_Sci_India_1_258.pdf.txt Content-Encoding UTF-8 Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Agnihotri http://www....earthscienceindia.info/Agnihotri.htm 1 of 14 10/15/2008 9:41 AM Earth Science India Vol.1 (IV), October, 2008, pp. 258-287 http://www.earthscienceindia.info/ Recently studied sedimentary records from the eastern Arabian Sea: Implications to Holocene monsoonal variability Rajesh...

16,000 Years of Tropical Eastern Ocean Climate Variability Recorded in a Speleothem From Sumatra, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Wurtzel, J. B.; Abram, N.; Hantoro, W. S.; Rifai, H.; Hellstrom, J. C.; Heslop, D.; Troitzsch, U.; Eggins, S.

2015-12-01

Holocene climate variability in the Indo-Pacific has largely been inferred from sediment cores primarily from the central and eastern Warm Pool region. A limited number of speleothem oxygen-isotope records have provided decadally-resolved time-series of past rainfall variability over the central Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region, however no records currently exist for the Indian Ocean sector of the IPWP. Here we present the first continuous, high-resolution (~15year) speleothem record from the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, collected from central western Sumatra, Indonesia. Petrographic and geochemical analysis reveals that the sample is primarily composed of aragonite but is punctuated by intervals of primary calcite growth. In addition to Raman spectroscopy, trace element analysis by laser ablation ICP-MS reveals strongly antiphased behaviour between magnesium and strontium, attributed to the strong preference of those elements for the calcite and aragonite lattices, respectively. This relationship is utilized to develop a quantitative correction for the stable isotope fractionation offset between the two calcium carbonate polymorphs identified in the speleothem. The corrected oxygen isotope record shows a rapid transition from drier conditions during the Younger Dryas (YD) into a wetter Holocene, similar in timing and pattern to that recorded in Dongge Cave, China. This is strikingly different from other IPWP speleothem records, which show no YD or a wetter YD, suggesting that different mechanisms may be controlling rainfall amount in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. These disparate responses are further explored through proxy-model comparison.

Ice core evidence for secular variability and 200-year dipolar oscillations in atmospheric circulation over East Antarctica during the Holocene

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Delmonte, B. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE-CNRS), Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Department of Environmental Sciences, University Milano-Bicocca (Italy); Department of Geological Sciences, University of Siena (Italy); Petit, J.R.; Krinner, G. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE-CNRS), Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Maggi, V. [Department of Environmental Sciences, University Milano-Bicocca (Italy); Jouzel, J. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS, Saclay (France); Udisti, R. [Chemistry Department, University of Florence (Italy)

2005-05-01

Two Holocene ice core records from East Antarctica (Vostok and EPICA-Dome C) were analysed for dust concentration and size distribution at a temporal resolution of 1 sample per {proportional_to}50 years. A series of volcanic markers randomly distributed over the common part of the ice cores (from 9.8 to 3.5 kyear BP) ensures accurate relative dating ({+-}33 years). Dust-size records from the two sites display oscillations structured in cycles with sub-millennial and secular scale frequencies that are apparently asynchronous. The power spectra of the composite sum ({sigma}) of the two dust-size records display spectral energy mostly for 150- to 500-year periodicities. On the other hand, the 200-year band is common to both records and the 200 year components of the two sites are out-of-phase (100-year lead or lag) over {proportional_to}5.5 kyear, a phenomenon also reflected by a significant (>99% conf. lev.) band in the power spectra of the composite difference ({delta}) of the two size records. During long-range transport, mineral dust originating from the Southern Hemisphere continents is graded to a variable extent depending on the altitude and duration of atmospheric transport. Relatively coarse dust is associated with air mass penetration from the middle-lower troposphere and conversely relatively fine dust with upper troposphere air masses or the influence of subsidence over the Antarctic plateau, a hypothesis already proposed for the changes that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition (Delmonte et al. 2004b). Moreover, we assume that the overall fluctuation of air mass advection over Antarctica depends on the meridional pressure gradient with respect to low latitudes, i.e. the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We therefore suggest a regional variability in atmospheric circulation over East Antarctica. The 150-500 year power spectrum of the composite ({sigma}) parameter represents the long term variability of the AAO, imprinted by secular

Climate and vegetation changes during the Lateglacial and early–middle Holocene at Lake Ledro (southern Alps, Italy

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S. Joannin

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081 from Lake Ledro (652 m a.s.l., southern Alps, Italy. Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF measurements recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early–middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitude-dependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir and of the Larix (larch development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP, Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200–7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during

NW Pacific mid-depth ventilation changes during the Holocene

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Rella, S.; Uchida, M.

2010-12-01

During the last 50 years the oxygen content of North Pacific Intermediate Water primarily originating in the Okhotsk Sea has declined suggesting decreased mid-depth water circulation, likely leading to changes in biological productivity in the NW Pacific realm and a decrease in CO2 drawdown. It is therefore of high interest to elucidate the climate-oceanic interconnections of the present interglacial period (Holocene) in the NW Pacific, in order to predict possible future climate and surface productivity changes associated with a decrease in mid-depth ventilation in this ecologically sensitive region. However, such efforts have been hampered so far by the lack of appropriate sediment cores with fast sedimentation rates during the Holocene. Core CK05-04 that was recovered in 2005 from off Shimokita peninsula, Japan, at ~1000 m depth shows sedimentation rates of ~80 cm/kyr during the Holocene and therefore presents an ideal opportunity to reconstruct for the first time the Holocene ventilation history of the NW Pacific Ocean. We employ Accelerator Mass Spectroscopy (NIES-TERRA, Tsukuba) radiocarbon analysis of co-existing benthic and planktonic foraminifera to conclude on the ventilation age of the mid-depth water using benthic-planktonic radiocarbon age differences. At the conference we would like to present the results.

Late Holocene climate variability from Lake Pupuke maar, Auckland, New Zealand

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Striewski, B.; Shulmeister, J.; Augustinus, P. C.; Soderholm, J.

2013-10-01

Spectral analyses of quasi-annual organo-diatomaceous laminae couplets in an Auckland maar lake indicate brief (sub-decadal scale) episodes with strong spectral power and long periods of weak to no spectral power between c. 1700 to c. 550 cal. yr BP. Laminae couplet thickness appears to be a function of changes in wind flow over the basin, with enhanced wind flow deepening the mixing zone and providing additional nutrients for laminae formation. Aeolian dust from Australia amplifies the wind signal. Spectral signals in the high power episodes are focused in Auckland climate whereby strongly negative (positive) ENSO are associated with enhanced (diminished) SW airflow over Auckland. ENSO events interact in the modern climate and the spectral results indicate that this is the case when spectral power is strong in the laminae. These results highlight strong but intermittent ENSO activity between 600 and 1400 cal. yr BP.

8800 years of high-altitude vegetation and climate history at the Rutor Glacier forefield, Italian Alps. Evidence of middle Holocene timberline rise and glacier contraction

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Badino, Federica; Ravazzi, Cesare; Vallè, Francesca; Pini, Roberta; Aceti, Amelia; Brunetti, Michele; Champvillair, Elena; Maggi, Valter; Maspero, Francesco; Perego, Renata; Orombelli, Giuseppe

2018-04-01

Sedimentary archives at or near the timberline ecotone in Alpine glaciated areas contain records to study Holocene climate change and the interplay between climate, ecosystems, and humans. We focused on records of timberline and glacier oscillations in the Rutor Glacier forefield (Western Italian Alps) in the last 8800 years. Human activity in this area was negligible for most of the Holocene. We adopted an integrative stratigraphic approach including proxies for glacier advance and timberline estimation, sedimentary events, and reconstructed temperatures. Changes in timberline ecotone correlate to climate until the Middle Ages. Pollen-stratigraphic evidence of a primary plant succession highlights a lag beween local deglaciation and the first reliable 14C age. The radiocarbon chronology points to a prolonged phase of glacier contraction between 8.8 and 3.7 ka cal BP. Even later the glacier remained within its LIA limits. Between 8.4 and 4 ka cal BP MAT-inferred TJuly fluctuated near 12.4 °C, ca. 3.1 °C higher than today. During this period, a Pinus cembra forest belt grew at 2600 m asl with an upper limit of tree groves placed 434 ± 310 m above the current open forest limit. This Holocene phase of thermal maximum ended between 3.98 and 3.51 ± 70 ka cal BP and with a substantial rearrangement of forest composition; temperature reconstruction shows a decrease of 1.8 °C. This climate deterioration concluded the Subboreal thermal optimum, mirroring glacial advances widely documented in the Alps. The Rutor Glacier advanced at ca. AD 1093 ± 65, and remained inside the LIA maximum extent. The LIA started since AD 1594, and culminated between AD 1751 and 1864.

Late-Holocene vegetation dynamics in response to a changing climate and anthropogenic influences - Insights from stratigraphic records and subfossil trees from southeast Lithuania

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Edvardsson, Johannes; Stančikaitė, Miglė; Miras, Yannick; Corona, Christophe; Gryguc, Gražyna; Gedminienė, Laura; Mažeika, Jonas; Stoffel, Markus

2018-04-01

To increase our understanding of long-term climate dynamics and its effects on different ecosystems, palaeoclimatic and long-term botanical reconstructions need to be improved, in particular in underutilized geographical regions. In this study, vegetation, (hydro)climate, and land-use changes were documented at two southeast Lithuanian peatland complexes - Čepkeliai and Rieznyčia - for the Late-Holocene period. The documentation was based on a combination of pollen, plant macrofossils, peat stratigraphic records, and subfossil trees. Our results cover the last two millennia and reveal the existence of moist conditions in Southern Lithuania between 300 and 500 CE and from 950 to 1850 CE. Conversely, changes towards warmer and/or dryer conditions have been recorded in 100, 600, and 750 CE, and since the 1850s. Significant differences with other Baltic proxies prevent deriving a complete and precise long-term reconstruction of past hydroclimatic variability at the regional scale. Yet, our results provide an important cornerstone for an improved understanding of regional climate change, i.e. in a region for which only (i) few detailed palaeobotanical studies exist and which has, in addition, been considered as (ii) an ecologically sensitive region at the interface between the temperate and boreal bioclimatic zones.

Climate Variability and Sugarcane Yield in Louisiana.

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Greenland, David

2005-11-01

This paper seeks to understand the role that climate variability has on annual yield of sugarcane in Louisiana. Unique features of sugarcane growth in Louisiana and nonclimatic, yield-influencing factors make this goal an interesting and challenging one. Several methods of seeking and establishing the relations between yield and climate variables are employed. First, yield climate relations were investigated at a single research station where crop variety and growing conditions could be held constant and yield relations could be established between a predominant older crop variety and a newer one. Interviews with crop experts and a literature survey were used to identify potential climatic factors that control yield. A statistical analysis was performed using statewide yield data from the American Sugar Cane League from 1963 to 2002 and a climate database. Yield values for later years were adjusted downward to form an adjusted yield dataset. The climate database was principally constructed from daily and monthly values of maximum and minimum temperature and daily and monthly total precipitation for six cooperative weather-reporting stations representative of the area of sugarcane production. The influence of 74 different, though not independent, climate-related variables on sugarcane yield was investigated. The fact that a climate signal exists is demonstrated by comparing mean values of the climate variables corresponding to the upper and lower third of adjusted yield values. Most of these mean-value differences show an intuitively plausible difference between the high- and low-yield years. The difference between means of the climate variables for years corresponding to the upper and lower third of annual yield values for 13 of the variables is statistically significant at or above the 90% level. A correlation matrix was used to identify the variables that had the largest influence on annual yield. Four variables [called here critical climatic variables (CCV

Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-12-01

Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

A proxy late Holocene climatic record deduced from northwest Alaskan beach ridges

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Mason, O.K.; Jordan, J.W.

1991-01-01

A climatically-sensitive, oscillatory pattern of progradation and erosion is revealed in late Holocene accretionary sand ridge and barrier island complexes of Seward Peninsula, northwest Alaska. Archaeological and geological radiocarbon dates constrain the authors chronology for the Cape Espenberg beach ridge plain and the Shishmaref barrier islands, 50 km to the southwest. Cape Espenberg, acts as the depositional sink for the northeastward longshore transport system and contains the oldest sedimentary deposits: based on 3700±90 B.P. (β-23170) old grass from a paleosol capping a low dune facies. The oldest date on the Shishmaref barrier islands is 1550±70 B.P. (β-23183) and implies that the modem barrier is a comparatively recent phenomenon. Late Holocene sedimentation varies between intervals of erosion and rapid progradation. During erosional periods higher dunes are built atop beach ridges: as between 3000-2000 yrs. BP and intermittently from 1000 BP to the present. At other times, rapid progradation predominated, generating wide swales and low beach ridges without dunes. Tentatively, dune formation is correlative with the Neo-glacial and Little Ice Age glacial advances and increased alluviation in north Alaska. Rapid progradation is contemporaneous with warmer intervals of soil and peat formation atop alluvial terraces, dated to ca. 4000-3500 and 2000-1000 yrs. B.P. In the record of the last 1000 years, dune building is correlative with heightened storminess, as reflected in northwest Alaska tree-ring chronologies and weather anomalies such as spring dust storms and winter thunderstorms in East Asian locations

How much rainfall sustained a Green Sahara during the mid-Holocene?

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Hopcroft, Peter; Valdes, Paul; Harper, Anna

2016-04-01

The present-day Sahara desert has periodically transformed to an area of lakes and vegetation during the Quaternary in response to orbitally-induced changes in the monsoon circulation. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations of the mid-Holocene generally underestimate the required monsoon shift, casting doubt on the fidelity of these models. However, the climatic regime that characterised this period remains unclear. To address this, we applied an ensemble of dynamic vegetation model simulations using two different models: JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) a comprehensive land surface model, and LPJ (Lund-Potsdam-Jena model) a widely used dynamic vegetation model. The simulations are forced with a number of idealized climate scenarios, in which an observational climatology is progressively altered with imposed anomalies of precipitation and other related variables, including cloud cover and humidity. The applied anomalies are based on an ensemble of general circulation model simulations, and include seasonal variations but are spatially uniform across the region. When perturbing precipitation alone, a significant increase of at least 700mm/year is required to produce model simulations with non-negligible vegetation coverage in the Sahara region. Changes in related variables including cloud cover, surface radiation fluxes and humidity are found to be important in the models, as they modify the water balance and so affect plant growth. Including anomalies in all of these variables together reduces the precipitation change required for a Green Sahara compared to the case of increasing precipitation alone. We assess whether the precipitation changes implied by these vegetation model simulations are consistent with reconstructions for the mid-Holocene from pollen samples. Further, Earth System models predict precipitation increases that are significantly smaller than that inferred from these vegetation model simulations. Understanding

Mid-late Holocene climate and vegetation in northeastern part of the Altai Mountains recorded in Lake Teletskoye

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Rudaya, Natalia; Nazarova, Larisa; Novenko, Elena; Babich, Valery; Kalugin, Ivan; Daryin, Andrei

2015-04-01

We report the first high-resolution (with intervals ca. 20-50 years) late-Holocene (4200 yr BP) pollen record from Lake Teletskoye, Altai Mountains, obtained from the underwater Ridge of Sofia Lepneva in 2006 (core Tel 2006). The study presents (i) the results of palynological analysis of Tel 2006; (ii) the results of spectral analysis of natural cycles based on the periodical fluctuation of taiga-biome curve; and (iii) quantitative reconstructions of the late-Holocene regional vegetation, woody coverage and climate in northern part of the Altai Mountains in order to define place of Northeast Altai on the map of the late-Holocene Central Asian environmental history. Late Holocene vegetation of the northeastern part of Altai recorded in Tel 2006 core is characterized by spread of dark-coniferous forest with structure similar to modern. Dominant trees, Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and Siberian fir (Abies sibirica), are the most ecological sensitive taxa between Siberian conifers (Shumilova, 1962), that as a whole suggests mild and humid climatic conditions during last 4200 years. However, changes of pollen taxa percentages and results of numerical analysis reveal pronounced fluctuation of climate and vegetation. Relatively cool and dry stage occurred prior to ca. 3500 cal yr BP. Open vegetation was widespread in the region with maximum deforestation and minimal July temperatures between 3800-3500 cal yr BP. Steppe-like communities with Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae and Cyperaceae could grow on the open sites around Lake Teletskoye. Reconstructed woody coverage is very low and varies between 29-35%. After ca. 3500 cal yr BP the area of dark-coniferous mountain taiga has significantly enlarged with maximums of woody coverages and taiga biome scores between ca. 2470-1040 cal yr BP. In the period of ~3500-2500 cal yr BP the averages July temperatures increased more than 1 0C. Climate became warmer and wetter. During last millennium (after 1040 cal yr BP) average July

A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

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Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

2013-02-01

We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

Glaciation in the Andes during the Lateglacial and Holocene

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Rodbell, Donald T.; Smith, Jacqueline A.; Mark, Bryan G.

2009-10-01

This review updates the chronology of Andean glaciation during the Lateglacial and the Holocene from the numerous articles and reviews published over the past three decades. The Andes, which include some of the world's wettest and driest mountainous regions, offer an unparalleled opportunity to elucidate spatial and temporal patterns of glaciation along a continuous 68-degree meridional transect. The geographic and altitudinal extent of modern glaciers and the sensitivity of both modern and former glaciers to respond to changes in specific climatic variables reflect broad-scale atmospheric circulation and consequent regional moisture patterns. Glaciers in the tropical Andes and in the mid-latitude Andes are likely to have been far more sensitive to changes in temperature than glaciers in the dry subtropical Andes. Broad-scale temporal and spatial patterns of glaciation during the Lateglacial are apparent. In the southernmost Andes, the Lateglacial chronology appears to have a strong Antarctic signature with the best-dated moraines correlating closely with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The southernmost Andes do not appear to have experienced a significant ice advance coeval with the Younger Dryas (YD) climatic reversal. At the other end of the Andes, from ˜0 to 9°N, a stronger YD connection may exist, but critical stratigraphic and geochronologic work is required before a YD ice advance can be fully demonstrated. In the central Andes of Peru, well-dated moraines record a significant ice readvance at the onset of the YD, but ice was retreating during much of the remaining YD interval. The spatial-temporal pattern of Holocene glaciation exhibits tantalizing but incomplete evidence for an Early to Mid-Holocene ice advance(s) in many regions, but not in the arid subtropical Andes, where moraines deposited during or slightly prior to the Little Ice Age (LIA) record the most extensive advance of the Holocene. In many regions, there is strong evidence for Neoglacial

Hydroclimate variability of High Arctic Svalbard during the Holocene inferred from hydrogen isotopes of leaf waxes

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Balascio, Nicholas L.; D'Andrea, William J.; Gjerde, Marthe; Bakke, Jostein

2018-03-01

The response of the Arctic hydrologic cycle to global warming includes changes in precipitation patterns and moisture availability associated with variable sea ice extent and modes of atmospheric circulation. Reconstructions of past hydroclimate changes help constrain the natural range of these systems, identify the manners in which they respond to different forcing mechanisms, and reveal their connections to other components of the climate system, all of which lead to a better understanding of present and future changes. Here we examine hydroclimate changes during the Holocene in the High Arctic archipelago of Svalbard by reconstructing the isotopic composition of precipitation. We measured the hydrogen isotopic composition (δD values) of leaf wax compounds (n-alkanes; C25-C31) in a sediment core from Lake Hakluytvatnet on the island of Amsterdamøya, northwest Spitsbergen. We interpret δD values of mid-chain (C25) and long-chain (C29, C31) length n-alkanes to represent changes in the isotopic composition of lake water and precipitation over the last 12.9 ka. After deglaciation of the catchment, water supply became restricted and the lake experienced significant evaporative isotopic enrichment indicating warmer conditions from 12.8 to 7.5 ka. The isotope values suggest an increase in the delivery of moisture from warmer sub-polar air masses between 12.8 and 9.5 ka, followed by generally warm, but unstable conditions between 9.5 and 7.5 ka, possibly indicating a response to meltwater forcing. Sedimentary evidence indicates a hiatus in deposition c. 7.5-5.0 ka, likely as a result of desiccation of the lake. At c. 5.0 ka lacustrine sedimentation resumed and over the last 5 ka there was a progressive increase in the influence of polar air masses and colder conditions, which culminated in an abrupt shift to colder conditions at c. 1.8 ka. This late Holocene cooling ended c. 0.18 ka, when isotopic data indicate warmer conditions and greater influence of moisture

Holocene environmental change and archaeology, Yangtze River Valley, China: Review and prospects

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Li Wu

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Holocene environmental change and environmental archaeology are important components of an international project studying the human-earth interaction system. This paper reviews the progress of Holocene environmental change and environmental archaeology research in the Yangtze River Valley over the last three decades, that includes the evolution of large freshwater lakes, Holocene transgression and sea-level changes, Holocene climate change and East Asian monsoon variation, relationship between the rise and fall of primitive civilizations and environmental changes, cultural interruptions and palaeoflood events, as well as relationship between the origin of agriculture and climate change. These research components are underpinned by the dating of lacustrine sediments, stalagmites and peat to establish a chronology of regional environmental and cultural evolution. Interdisciplinary and other environment proxy indicators need to be used in comparative studies of archaeological site formation and natural sedimentary environment in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley. Modern technology such as remote sensing, molecular bioarchaeology, and virtual reality, should be integrated with currently used dating, geochemical, sedimentological, and palaeobotanical methods of analysis in environmental archaeology macro- and micro-studies, so as to provide a greater comprehensive insight into Holocene environmental and cultural interaction and change in the Yangtze River Valley area.

Lakeside cemeteries in the Sahara: 5000 years of holocene population and environmental change.

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Paul C Sereno

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Approximately two hundred human burials were discovered on the edge of a paleolake in Niger that provide a uniquely preserved record of human occupation in the Sahara during the Holocene ( approximately 8000 B.C.E. to the present. Called Gobero, this suite of closely spaced sites chronicles the rapid pace of biosocial change in the southern Sahara in response to severe climatic fluctuation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Two main occupational phases are identified that correspond with humid intervals in the early and mid-Holocene, based on 78 direct AMS radiocarbon dates on human remains, fauna and artifacts, as well as 9 OSL dates on paleodune sand. The older occupants have craniofacial dimensions that demonstrate similarities with mid-Holocene occupants of the southern Sahara and Late Pleistocene to early Holocene inhabitants of the Maghreb. Their hyperflexed burials compose the earliest cemetery in the Sahara dating to approximately 7500 B.C.E. These early occupants abandon the area under arid conditions and, when humid conditions return approximately 4600 B.C.E., are replaced by a more gracile people with elaborated grave goods including animal bone and ivory ornaments. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The principal significance of Gobero lies in its extraordinary human, faunal, and archaeological record, from which we conclude the following: The early Holocene occupants at Gobero (7700-6200 B.C.E. were largely sedentary hunter-fisher-gatherers with lakeside funerary sites that include the earliest recorded cemetery in the Sahara.Principal components analysis of craniometric variables closely allies the early Holocene occupants at Gobero with a skeletally robust, trans-Saharan assemblage of Late Pleistocene to mid-Holocene human populations from the Maghreb and southern Sahara.Gobero was abandoned during a period of severe aridification possibly as long as one millennium (6200-5200 B.C.E.More gracile humans arrived in the mid-Holocene

Holocene environmental changes recorded in Dicksonfjorden and Woodfjorden, Svalbard: impacts of global climate changes in a glacial-marine system

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Joo, Y. J.; Nam, S. I.; Son, Y. J.; Forwick, M.

2017-12-01

Fjords in the Svalbard archipelago are characterized by an extreme environmental gradient between 1) the glacial system affected by tidewater glaciers and seasonal sea ice inside the fjords and 2) the warm Atlantic Water intrusion by the West Spitsbergen Current from open ocean. As sediment is largely supplied from the terrestrial source area exposed along the steep slopes of the fjords, the changes in the surface processes affected by glaciers are likely preserved in the sediments in the inner fjords. On the other hand, variations in the influence of the warm Atlantic Water in the marine realm (e.g. marine productivity) can be archived in the sediment deposited in the vicinity of the entrance to the fjords. Since the last deglaciation of the Svalbard-Barents ice sheet ( 13000 yrs BP), the Svalbard fjords have faced dramatic climate changes including the early Holocene Climate Optimum (HCO) and subsequent cooling that eventually led to the current cold and dry climate. We investigate the Holocene environmental changes in both terrestrial and marine realms based on stable isotopic and inorganic geochemical analyses of sediments deposited in Dicksonfjorden and Woodfjorden in the western and northern Spitsbergen, respectively. The two fjords are expected to provide intriguing information regarding how terrestrial and marine realms of the Arctic fjords system responded to regional and global climate changes. Being a branch of the larger Isfjorden, Dicksonfjorden penetrates deeply to the land, whereas Woodfjorden is rather directly connected to the open ocean. Accordingly, the results suggest that the Dicksonfjorden sediment records mainly terrestrial signals with marked fluctuations in sediment composition that coincide with major climate changes (e.g. HCO). On the contrary, the two Woodfjorden cores collected from different parts of the fjord exhibit contrasting results, likely illustrating differing response of terrestrial and marine realms to the climate changes in

Alkenone-based reconstructions reveal four-phase Holocene temperature evolution for High Arctic Svalbard

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van der Bilt, Willem G. M.; D'Andrea, William J.; Bakke, Jostein; Balascio, Nicholas L.; Werner, Johannes P.; Gjerde, Marthe; Bradley, Raymond S.

2018-03-01

Situated at the crossroads of major oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns, the Arctic is a key component of Earth's climate system. Compounded by sea-ice feedbacks, even modest shifts in the region's heat budget drive large climate responses. This is highlighted by the observed amplified response of the Arctic to global warming. Assessing the imprint and signature of underlying forcing mechanisms require paleoclimate records, allowing us to expand our knowledge beyond the short instrumental period and contextualize ongoing warming. However, such datasets are scarce and sparse in the Arctic, limiting our ability to address these issues. Here, we present two quantitative Holocene-length paleotemperature records from the High Arctic Svalbard archipelago, situated in the climatically sensitive Arctic North Atlantic. Temperature estimates are based on U37K unsaturation ratios from sediment cores of two lakes. Our data reveal a dynamic Holocene temperature evolution, with reconstructed summer lake water temperatures spanning a range of ∼6-8 °C, and characterized by four phases. The Early Holocene was marked by an early onset (∼10.5 ka cal. BP) of insolation-driven Hypsithermal conditions, likely compounded by strengthening oceanic heat transport. This warm interval was interrupted by cooling between ∼10.5-8.3 ka cal. BP that we attribute to cooling effects from the melting Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Temperatures declined throughout the Middle Holocene, following a gradual trend that was accentuated by two cooling steps between ∼7.8-7 ka cal. BP and around ∼4.4-4.3 ka cal. BP. These transitions coincide with a strengthening influence of Arctic water and sea-ice in the adjacent Fram Strait. During the Late Holocene (past 4 ka), temperature change decoupled from the still-declining insolation, and fluctuated around comparatively cold mean conditions. By showing that Holocene Svalbard temperatures were governed by an alternation of forcings, this study

Pollen-Based Inverse Modelling versus Data Assimilation, two Different Ways to Consider Priors in Paleoclimate Reconstruction: Application to the Mediterranean Holocene

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Guiot, J.

2017-12-01

In the last decades, climate reconstruction has much evolved. A important step has been passed with inverse modelling approach proposed by Guiot et al (2000). It is based on appropriate algorithms in the frame of the Bayesian statistical theory to estimate the inputs of a vegetation model when the outputs are known. The inputs are the climate variables that we want to reconstruct and the outputs are vegetation characteristics, which can be compared to pollen data. The Bayesian framework consists in defining prior distribution of the wanted climate variables and in using data and a model to estimate posterior probability distribution. The main interest of the method is the possibility to set different values of exogenous variables as the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The fact that the CO2 concentration has an influence on the photosynthesis and that its level is different between the calibration period (the 20th century) and the past, there is an important risk of biases on the reconstructions. After that initial paper, numerous papers have been published showing the interested of the method. In that approach, the prior distribution is fixed by educated guess of by using complementary information on the expected climate (other proxies or other records). In the data assimilation approach, the prior distribution is provided by a climate model. The use of a vegetation model together with proxy data, enable to calculate posterior distributions. Data assimilation consists in constraining climate model to reproduce estimates relatively close to the data, taking into account the respective errors of the data and of the climate model (Dubinkina et al, 2011). We compare both approaches using pollen data for the Holocene from the Mediterranean. Pollen data have been extracted from the European Pollen Database. The earth system model, LOVECLIM, is run to simulate Holocene climate with appropriate boundary conditions and realistic forcing. Simulated climate variables

Compilation of information on the climate and evaluation of the hydrochemical and isotopic composition during Late Pleistocene and Holocene

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Cecilia

1998-01-01

This report summarises and evaluates some of the existing information on the Late Pleistocene and Holocene climates, i.e. the last 130 000 years. An estimation of the conditions at the Aespoe island (southeast Sweden) has also been made during this time span. The knowledge about Late Pleistocene (Eemian Interglacial and Weichselian glacial) is not yet fully understood. There are still a lot of assumptions concerning this period and more information is needed to be able to establish the climatic conditions. This is not the case for the Weichselian deglaciation and the present interglacial, Holocene, for which the environmental conditions are quite certain. It has been concluded, however, that the Eemian climatic development probably was similar to the Holocene but perhaps somewhat warmer and more humid. The Eemian Baltic Sea level was probably also higher than the present Baltic Sea level and there was a connection between it and the White Sea in the northeast. Aespoe was probably situated below sea level during the greater part of Eemian. Not much is known about the last glacial period, the Weichselian glaciation, until the final deglaciation. The ice sheet during Early Weichselian was probably mostly concentrated to the Scandinavian mountain area and in northern Scandinavia. At least two intervals with higher temperatures have been recorded, the Broerup and Odderade interstadials. The Middle Weichselian substage is characterised by fluctuations, melting and re-advances. Aespoe was probably not glaciated until the middle or latter part of Middle Weichselian. The maximum extension of the Weichselian ice sheet occurred in Late Weichselian, around 20 to 18 ka BP, which was succeeded by the final deglaciation. The retreat of the Weichselian ice sheet is described by for example end moraines and glacial varved clay. The Aespoe area was glaciated until 12 500 BP. Huge quantities of glacial meltwater was released into the Baltic basin as the ice receded. Due to different

Compilation of information on the climate and evaluation of the hydrochemical and isotopic composition during Late Pleistocene and Holocene

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andersson, Cecilia [Intera KB (Sweden)

1998-01-01

This report summarises and evaluates some of the existing information on the Late Pleistocene and Holocene climates, i.e. the last 130 000 years. An estimation of the conditions at the Aespoe island (southeast Sweden) has also been made during this time span. The knowledge about Late Pleistocene (Eemian Interglacial and Weichselian glacial) is not yet fully understood. There are still a lot of assumptions concerning this period and more information is needed to be able to establish the climatic conditions. This is not the case for the Weichselian deglaciation and the present interglacial, Holocene, for which the environmental conditions are quite certain. It has been concluded, however, that the Eemian climatic development probably was similar to the Holocene but perhaps somewhat warmer and more humid. The Eemian Baltic Sea level was probably also higher than the present Baltic Sea level and there was a connection between it and the White Sea in the northeast. Aespoe was probably situated below sea level during the greater part of Eemian. Not much is known about the last glacial period, the Weichselian glaciation, until the final deglaciation. The ice sheet during Early Weichselian was probably mostly concentrated to the Scandinavian mountain area and in northern Scandinavia. At least two intervals with higher temperatures have been recorded, the Broerup and Odderade interstadials. The Middle Weichselian substage is characterised by fluctuations, melting and re-advances. Aespoe was probably not glaciated until the middle or latter part of Middle Weichselian. The maximum extension of the Weichselian ice sheet occurred in Late Weichselian, around 20 to 18 ka BP, which was succeeded by the final deglaciation. The retreat of the Weichselian ice sheet is described by for example end moraines and glacial varved clay. The Aespoe area was glaciated until 12 500 BP. Huge quantities of glacial meltwater was released into the Baltic basin as the ice receded. Due to different

Southern westerly winds: a pacemaker of Holocene glacial fluctuations in Patagonia?

Science.gov (United States)

Sagredo, E. A.; Reynhout, S.; Kaplan, M. R.; Patricio, M. I.; Aravena, J. C.; Martini, M. A.; Schaefer, J. M.

2017-12-01

A well-resolved glacial chronology is crucial to compare sequences of glacial/climate events within and between regions, and thus, to unravel mechanisms underlying past climate changes. Important efforts have been made towards understanding the Holocene climate evolution of the Southern Andes; however, the timing, patterns and causes of glacial fluctuations during this period still remain elusive. Recent advances in terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating, together with the establishment of a Patagonian 10Be production rate, have opened new possibilities for establishing high-resolution glacial chronologies at centennial/decadal scale. Here we present a 10Be surface exposure chronology of fluctuations of a small, climate-sensitive mountain glacier at Mt. Fitz Roy area (49.3°S), spanning from the last glacial termination to the present. Thirty new 10Be ages show glacial advances and moraine building events at 17.1±0.9 ka, 13.5±0.5 ka, 10.2±0.7 ka or 9.9±0.5 ka, 6.9±0.2 ka, 6.1±0.3 ka, 4.5±0.2 ka and 0.5±0.1 ka. Similar to the pattern observed in New Zealand, this sequence features progressively less extensive glacial advances during the late-glacial and early Holocene, followed by advances of roughly similar extent during the mid- to late-Holocene. We suggest that while the magnitude of Holocene glacial fluctuations in Patagonia is modulated by SH summer insolation ("modulator"), the specific timing of these glacial events is influenced by centennial-scale shifts of the Southern Westerly Winds ("pacemaker").

Pacific southwest United States Holocene summer paleoclimate inferred from sediment calcite oxygen isotopes (Lake Elsinore, CA)

Science.gov (United States)

Kirby, M.; Patterson, W. P.; Lachniet, M. S.; Anderson, M.; Noblet, J. A.

2017-12-01

Records of past climate inform on the natural range and mechanisms of climate change. In the arid Pacific southwest United States (pswUS), there exist a variety of Holocene records that infer past winter conditions (moisture and/or temperature). Holocene records of summer climate, however, are rare excepting short-lived (zone (Kirby et al. 2004) shows similar changes providing confidence in our longer record. Various forcing mechanisms are examined to explain the Elsinore summer record including insolation, Pacific SSTs, and trace gas radiative forcing.

The roles of fire in Holocene ecosystem changes of West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Dupont, L. M.; Schefuß, E.

2018-01-01

The climate changes associated with the Holocene wet phase in the Sahara, the African Humid Period, are subject to ongoing debate discussing interactions between climate and vegetation and possible feedbacks between vegetation, albedo, desertification, and dust. However, very little attention has been given to the role of fire in shaping the land cover, although it is known that fires are important in the formation and consolidation of the African savanna. To fill this gap, we investigated the interaction between precipitation changes, vegetation shifts, and fire occurrence in West Africa by combining stable isotope measurements on plant waxes with pollen and micro-charcoal counts of marine sediments retrieved offshore of Cape Blanc. Our study focuses on the roles of fire at the dry limit of savanna during the Holocene evolution of precipitation changes indicating that the impact of fire during a relative wet climate differs from that during aridification. During the humid early Holocene, increased savanna extension and diversification ran parallel to increased fire occurrence. In contrast, after aridification of northern Africa started at the end of the African Humid Period, a maximum in fire occurrence correlated with a deterioration of the vegetation promoting desertification.

Early Holocene climate oscillations recorded in three Greenland ice cores

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Sune Olander; Vinther, Bo Møllesøe; Clausen, Henrik Brink

2007-01-01

around 9.3 ka before present, and the Preboreal Oscillation during the first centuries of the Holocene. For each of these sections, we present a d18O anomaly curve and a common accumulation signal that represents regional changes in the accumulation rate over the Greenland ice cap....... and accumulation anomalies that are common to the three cores in the Early Holocene (7.9–11.7 ka before present). Three time periods with significant and synchronous anomalies in the d18O and accumulation signals stand out: the well-known 8.2 ka event, an event of shorter duration but of almost similar amplitude...

Holocene millennial to centennial scale carbonate cycles (leeward margin, Great Bahama Bank)

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, S.; Reijmer, J. J. G.

2003-04-01

The main research topic of this project is the evaluation of Holocene to Recent climatic variability and the impact on shallow-water sediment production of carbonate platforms. A 38m long sediment core (MD992201) was analyzed, obtained from 290m water depth on the leeward margin of Great Bahama Bank. Fourteen Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) dates determined a core bottom age of 7,230 years BP and permitted the construction of a precise time frame. With a sampling interval of 5cm, a decadal time resolution could be achieved. Sedimentation rates varied between 3 to 14m/kyr. Carbonate content ranges from 96 to almost 100wt%, most of which is aragonite (83-92wt%). High Magnesium Calcite (HMC) makes up the second major fraction with 2-9wt%, while Low Magnesium Calcite occurs with minor percentages (0.5-4wt%). Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) of the aragonitic carbonate phase showed two different trends and two primary oscillatory signals. Aragonite production on Great Bahama Bank started at 7,230yr BP when the Holocene sea-level rise flooded the shallow platform top. The first eigenvector captures this long-term trend extending over the entire Mid to Late Holocene succession displaying the Holocene sea-level fluctuations. The second trend indicates millennial scale variations, which can be attributed to a combination of geomagnetic shielding and solar parameters. The two quasi-periodic signals show wavelengths of 400-600 years and approx. 210 years. These oscillations are interpreted in terms of instabilities of the thermohaline circulation and solar parameters, respectively. The oscillatory aragonite signals and oxygen isotope derived temperatures (planktonic foraminifers) agree with northern hemisphere temperature changes (e.g. Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age) and the delta-14C record of tree rings (e.g. Oort to Dalton solar minima). This study shows that carbonate platform systems not only respond to sea-level variations but also are precise recorders of

Climate Change or Climate Variability? History, Science and Politics in the Mesoamerican Climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Poleo

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Climate variations in Mesoamerica have influenced the development and decay of populations from the earliest human settlements. The present time is no exception; there is no evidence that global warming will impact rainfall in the region, but rather there are important studies showing a response of rainfall to climate variability in the American tropics. Since our tropical region is vulnerable to climate variability, public policies must be congruent to avoid the mistakes of previous generations and achieve, with the help of science, a real progress in the fight against global warming.

The Holocene History of Placentia Bay, Newfoundland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sheldon, Christina; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Reynisson, Njall

2013-01-01

Marine sediments analyzed from cores taken in Placentia Bay, Newfoundland, located in the Labrador Sea, captured oceanographic and climatic changes from the end of the Younger Dryas through the Holocene. Placentia Bay is an ideal site to capture changes in both the south-flowing Labrador Current ...

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albani, Samuel; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Capron, Emilie; Carlson, Anders E.; Dutton, Andrea; Fischer, Hubertus; Goelzer, Heiko; Govin, Aline; Haywood, Alan; Joos, Fortunat; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Lipscomb, William H.; Lohmann, Gerrit; Mahowald, Natalie; Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph; Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves; Phipps, Steven J.; Renssen, Hans; Zhang, Qiong

2017-11-01

Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land-sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external

Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.

2005-01-01

Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the only...... rapid cooling recorded during the Holocene in Greenland ice cores and in Ammersee, Germany. The rate of warming during previous warmer interglacial periods is estimated from polar ice cores to 1.5 °C per millennium, without abrupt changes. Climate change expected for the 21st century should however...

Thermal tolerance ranges and climate variability : A comparison between bivalves from differing climates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Compton, Tanya J.; Rijkenberg, Micha J. A.; Drent, Jan; Piersma, Theunis

2007-01-01

The climate variability hypothesis proposes that in variable temperate climates poikilothermic animals have wide thermal tolerance windows, whereas in constant tropical climates they have small thermal tolerance windows. In this study we quantified and compared the upper and lower lethal thermal

El Niño Variability in the Coastal Desert of Southern Peru during the Mid-Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Fontugne, Michel; Usselmann, Pierre; Lavallée, Danièle; Julien, Michèle; Hatté, Christine

1999-09-01

Fourteen organic-rich sedimentary layers in the deposits at Quebrada de los Burros, in coastal southern Peru (Tacna department), lie between two debris-flow units, interpreted to result from El Niño events, at 8980 cal yr B.P. and after 3380 cal yr B.P., respectively. The accumulation of the fine-grained and low-energy sediments of this deposit during the mid-Holocene is incompatible with the occurrence of El Niño events in this region, as these would produce catastrophic flood deposits. The occurrence of organic-rich sediments and evidence of an enhancement of upwelling strength at this time imply the existence of a permanent water supply resulting from an increased condensation of fog at mid-altitudes. These results suggest a lower intensity and, perhaps, a lower frequency of occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon during the mid-Holocene. It is precisely during this period that the most important human settlements are found at this site, probably indicating the presence of reliable supply of fresh water. The chronologies for wetlands in the central south altiplano are out of phase with those indicating increased soil moisture episodes on the coast, implying a long-term difference in climate between these two regions.

The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Maraun, Douglas

2013-04-01

When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with

Climate variability and change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manton, M.

2006-01-01

When Australia's climate should not be definite barrier to the population reaching 30 million by 2050, it is recognised that our climate has limited the development of the nation over the past 200 years. Indeed in 1911, based on a comparison of the climate and development between the US and Australia. Griffith Taylor predicted that Australia's population would be 19 million at the end of the 20th century, which is a pretty good 90-year forecast. The climate constraint is not only due to much of the country being semi-arid with an annual rainfall below 400 millimetres, but also due to the large year-to-year variability of rainfall across the country

Similar speleothem δ18O signals indicating diverging climate variations in inland central Asia and monsoonal south Asia during the Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Liya; Zhang, Xiaojian

2017-04-01

High-resolution and precisely dated speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from Asia have provided key evidence for past monsoonal changes. It is found that δ18O records of stalagmites from Kesang Cave (42°52'N, 81°45'E, Xinjiang, China) in inland central Asia were very similar to those from Qunf Cave (17°10'N, 54°18'E, southern Oman) in South Asia, shifting from light to heavy throughout the Holocene, which was regarded as a signal that strong Asian summer monsoon (ASM) may have intruded into the Kesang Cave site and/or adjacent areas in inland central Asia to produce heavy rainfall during the high insolation times (e.g. the early Holocene). However, this is in contrast to conclusions based on other Holocene proxy records and modeling simulations, showing a persistent wetting trend in arid central Asia during the Holocene with a dryer condition in the early Holocene and the wettest condition in the late Holocene. With an analysis of model-proxy data comparison, we revealed a possible physical mechanism responsible for the Holocene evolution of moisture/precipitation in Asian summer monsoon (ASM)-dominated regions and that in the inland central Asia. It is revealed that a recurrent circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern in the summertime mid-latitude circulation of the Northern Hemisphere was closely related to the ASM and the climate of inland central Asia, acting as a bridge linking the ASM to insolation, high-latitude forcing (North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST)), and low-latitude forcing (tropical Ocean SST). Also, the CGT influence speleothem δ18O values in South Asia via its effect on the amount of precipitation. In addition, the moisture source from the Indian Ocean is associated with relatively high δ18O values compared with that from the North Atlantic Ocean, leading to increased precipitation δ18O values. Hence, the CGT has probably been the key factor responsible for the in-phase relationship in speleothem δ18O values (Kesang Cave

Late Glacial to Holocene climate change and human impact in the Mediterranean : The last ca. 17ka diatom record of Lake Prespa (Macedonia/Albania/Greece)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cvetkoska, Aleksandra; Levkov, Zlatko; Reed, Jane M.; Wagner, Bernd

2014-01-01

Lake Prespa (Macedonia/Albania/Greece) occupies an important location between Mediterranean and central European climate zones. Although previous multi-proxy research on the Late Glacial to Holocene sequence, core Co1215 (320cm; ca. 17cal ka BP to present), has demonstrated its great value as an

Holocene Lake-Level Fluctuations of Lake Aricota, Southern Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Placzek, Christa; Quade, Jay; Betancourt, Julio L.

2001-09-01

Lacustrine deposits exposed around Lake Aricota, Peru (17° 22‧S), a 7.5-km2 lake dammed by debris flows, provide a middle to late Holocene record of lake-level fluctuations. Chronological context for shoreline deposits was obtained from radiocarbon dating of vascular plant remains and other datable material with minimal 14C reservoir effects (<350 yr). Diatomites associated with highstands several meters above the modern lake level indicate wet episodes. Maximum Holocene lake level was attained before 6100 14C yr B.P. and ended ∼2700 14C yr B.P. Moderately high lake levels occurred at 1700 and 1300 14C yr B.P. The highstand at Lake Aricota during the middle Holocene is coeval with a major lowstand at Lake Titicaca (16°S), which is only 130 km to the northeast and shares a similar climatology. Comparisons with other marine and terrestrial records highlight emerging contradictions over the nature of mid-Holocene climate in the central Andes.

Human used upper montane ecosystem in the Horton Plains, central Sri Lanka - a link to Lateglacial and early Holocene climate and environmental changes

Science.gov (United States)

Premathilake, Rathnasiri

2012-09-01

This study utilizes radiocarbon-dated pollen, spores, Sphagnum spp. macrofossils and total organic carbon proxies to examine variability of past climate, environment and human activity in montane rainforest, grassland and wetland of the Horton Plains (HP), central Sri Lanka since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The LGM is largely characterized by grasslands and xerophytic herbs dominated open habitats. Arid-LGM punctuated climatic ameliorations, which took place in short episodes. Humans appear to have reached the HP ecosystem after 18,000 cal yrs BP occasionally. The first Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) induced changes in South West Monsoon (SWM) rains occurred at low latitudes between 16,200 and 15,900 cal yrs BP suggesting an onset of monsoon rains. After this event, monsoon rains weakened for several millennia except the period 13,700-13,000 cal yrs BP, but human activity seems to have continued with biomass burning and clearances by slash and burn. Very large size grass pollen grains, which are morphologically similar to pollen from closer forms of Oryza nivara, were found after 13,800 cal yrs BP. Early Holocene extreme and abrupt climate changes seem to have promoted the forms of O. nivara populations in association with humans. New data from the HP would therefore be most interesting to investigate the dispersal and use of domesticated rice in South Asia.

Holocene palaeoenvironmental history of the Amazonian mangrove belt

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Marcelo Cancela Lisboa; Pessenda, Luiz Carlos Ruiz; Behling, Hermann; de Fátima Rossetti, Dilce; França, Marlon Carlos; Guimarães, José Tasso Felix; Friaes, Yuri; Smith, Clarisse Beltrão

2012-11-01

Wetland dynamic in the northern Brazilian Amazon region during the Holocene was reviewed using palynological, carbon and nitrogen isotopes records, and C/N ratio previously published. The integration of 72 radiocarbon dates recorded in 34 sediment cores sampled along the marine and fluvial littoral, and mainly influenced by the Amazon River, reveals that marine influence and mangrove vegetation were wider than today on the mouth of Amazon River between >8990-8690 and 2300-2230 cal yr BP, forming a continuous mangrove belt along the northern Brazilian Amazon littoral. The establishment of this mangrove strip is a direct consequence of the marine incursion caused by post-glacial sea-level rise possibly associated with tectonic subsidence during the Early and Middle Holocene. In the Late Holocene, in areas influenced by the Amazon River discharge, the mangroves were replaced by freshwater vegetation, and the coast morphology evolved from an estuarine dominated into a rectilinear coast due to coastal progradation. Nevertheless, the marine-influenced littoral, which is currently dominated by mangroves and salt-marsh vegetation, has persistently had brackish water vegetation over tidal mud flats throughout the entire Holocene. Likely, the fragmentation of this continuous mangrove line during the Late Holocene was caused by the increase of river freshwater discharge associated to the change from dry into wet climates in the Late Holocene. This caused a significant decrease of tidal water salinity in areas near the mouth of Amazon River. These changes in the Amazon discharge are probably associated with dry and wet periods in the northern Amazon region during the Holocene.

Reconstructing Holocene (sub)tropical climate and cyclone variability using geochemical proxies

OpenAIRE

van Soelen, E.E.

2012-01-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for a warming trend that cannot easily be reversed. This warming trend is expected to have a large impact on global weather patterns and local environmental conditions, for example by changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise and increasing tropical cyclone activity. Therefore, (sub)tropical coastal regions are expected to be heavily impacted by future climate change. To improve our understanding of the possible consequences of futu...

Past Holocene detritism quantification and modeling from lacustrine archives in order to deconvoluate human-climate interactions on natural ecosystem over long time-scale

Science.gov (United States)

Simonneau, Anaëlle; Chapron, Emmanuel; Di Giovanni, Christian; Galop, Didier; Darboux, Frédéric

2014-05-01

Water budget is one of the main challenges to paleoclimate researchers in relation to present-day global warming and its consequences for human societies. Associated soil degradation and erosion are thereby becoming a major concern in many parts of the world and more particularly in the Alps. Moreover, humans are considered as geomorphologic agents since few thousand years and it is now recognized that such an impact on natural ecosystem profoundly modified soils properties as well as aquatic ecosystems dynamics over long-term periods. The quantification of such inference over long time-scale is therefore essential to establish new policies to reduce mechanic soil erosion, which is one of the dominant processes in Europe, and anticipate the potential consequences of future climate change on hydric erosion. The mechanical erosion of continental surfaces results from climatic forcing, but can be amplified by the anthropogenic one. We therefore suggest that quantifying and modelling soil erosion processes within comparable Holocene lacustrine archives, allows to estimate and date which and when past human activities have had an impact on soil fluxes over the last 10000 years. Based on the present-day geomorphology of the surrounding watershed and the evolution of the vegetation cover during the Holocene, we develop an interdisciplinary approach combining quantitative organic petrography (i.e. optical characterization and quantification of soil particles within lake sediments) with high-resolution seismic profiling, age-depth models on lacustrine sediment cores and soil erosional susceptibility modeling, in order to estimate the annual volume of soil eroded over the last 10000 years, and in fine to quantify the volume of human-induced soil erosion during the Holocene period. This method is applied to close but contrasted mountainous lacustrine environments from the western French Alps: lakes Blanc Huez and Paladru, sensitive to same climatic influences but where past

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. L. Otto-Bliesner

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4 simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6. The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land–sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the

Insolation driven biomagnetic response to the Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Suzhen; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig A.; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

2015-01-01

The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8 ka and decrease at ~5.9 ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively with the onset and termination of the HWP, and are respectively linked to increased nutrient supply due to postglacial warming and poor nutrition due to drying at ~6 ka in the Asian interior. The two-stage transition at ~7.7 ka correlates well with increased organic carbon in middle HWP and suggests that improved climate conditions, leading to high quality nutrient influx, fostered magnetofossil proliferation. Our findings represent an excellent lake record in which magnetofossil abundance is, through nutrient availability, controlled by insolation driven climate changes.

Holocene river history of the Danube: human-environment interactions on its islands in Hungary

Science.gov (United States)

Viczián, István; Balogh, János; Kis, Éva; Szeberényi, József

2016-04-01

A change in the frequency and magnitude of floods is the main response of river systems to climatic change. Natural floods are highly sensitive to even modest changes of climate. The discharge and the characteristics of floods basically determine the floodplain evolution and the feasibility of human land use and inhabitation on the islands and floodplains. The study revealed that those small islands of large rivers which have the surface rising only some meters above the river are particularly suitable research objects of Holocene climate variability as they are exposed to floods, react sensitively to environmental changes and their evolution may be paralleled with human history. The research area covers the islands of the Danube along the river between Komárom and Paks in Hungary, which is about 250 km, includes more than 50 smaller or formerly existing islands and two extensive islands: the Szentendre Island and Csepel Island. Data gathered from 570 archaeological sites of those islands from Neolithic to Modern Ages were analysed and interpreted in accordance with climate history and floodplain evolution. Nevertheless, the study is not only about river and its environmental history but it demonstrates the role of river and climatic variability in the history of mankind. The environment of the floodplain, the river hydrology, the sedimentation, the formation of islands and the incision and aggradation of surrounding riverbeds, the frequency of devastating floods have significantly changed through the historical time periods, which is reflected in the number and locations of archaeological sites on the islands. Their occupation history reflects the changes in discharge, climate, geomorphology, floods and human impacts and indicates historical periods with low or high probability of inundation. The most favourable periods for an island's occupation concerning the flood risk of its surfaces - and consequently of the banks along the river - are the first parts of a

Timing and paleoclimatic significance of Holocene glacier fluctuations in the Cordillera Vilcabamba of southern Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Licciardi, J. M.; Taggart, J. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Lund, D. C.

2009-12-01

Past fluctuations in climatically sensitive tropical glaciers provide important insight into regional paleoclimatic trends and forcings, but well-dated chronologies are scarce, particularly during the Holocene. We have established precise cosmogenic 10Be surface exposure ages of moraine sequences in the Cordillera Vilcabamba (13°20’S latitude), located in the outer tropics of southern Peru. Results indicate the dominance of two major glacial culminations and associated climatic shifts in the Vilcabamba, including an early Holocene glacial interval and a somewhat less extensive glaciation late in the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) period. Lichenometric measurements on the youngest moraines support the 10Be ages, but uncertainties in the lichen ages arise from the lack of a local lichen growth curve. The Peruvian glacier chronologies differ from a recently-developed New Zealand record but are broadly correlative with well-dated glacial records in Europe, suggesting climate linkages between the tropics and the North Atlantic region. For the latest Holocene, our leading hypothesis is that climate forcings involving southward migration of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone can explain concurrent glaciations in tropical South America and northern high latitudes, but the influence of other climate drivers such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation may have also played a role. Estimated differences between equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) on modern glaciers and those inferred for expanded latest Holocene glaciers reveal an ELA rise of 165-200 m since the LIA, suggesting that temperatures 1.1-1.3°C cooler than present could have sustained glaciers at their LIA maximum positions if temperature was the only control, and thus providing an upper bound on temperature depression during the LIA. However, further work is required to constrain the likely role of precipitation changes. These new Peruvian glacier chronologies and ELA reconstructions complement ice core and

Reconstruction of early Holocene paleoclimate and environment in the SW Kola region, Russian Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Grekov, Ivan; Kolka, Vasiliy; Syrykh, Liudmila; Nazarova, Larisa

2016-04-01

In the current period of the global climate change it becomes necessary to have a clear understanding of not only the changes taking place in the components of the natural environment, but also to understand development of all interactions between those components. Quaternary terrigenic sediments and lakes of the Kola Peninsula store information about the development of the region in the Late Glacial and Holocene: movements of the glacier, neotectonic activity, post-glacial rebound, formation and development of natural environments after deglaciation. Multi-proxy study of landscapes evolution of the Kola Peninsula in the Late Quaternary will help to establish a detailed reconstruction of climatic and environmental changes of this poor studied sector of the Arctic. Quaternary history on the Kola Peninsula is represented mainly by Late Pleistocene and Holocene sediments covering the Baltic Shield (Lavrova, 1960; Evzerov, 2015). Several palaeolimnological investigations in the Baltic Shield area have been performed earlier (Donner et al., 1977; Anundsen, 1985; Berglund, 2004). Studies of the southern coast of the Kola Peninsula have shown that marine transgression took place in the Late Pleistocene that was then replaced by a regression with variable speed. The slowdown of the uplift of the area took place between 8800 - 6800 BP (cal. years) and corresponded to the time of the Tapes transgression of the Arctic Ocean (Evzerov et al. 2010; Kolka, et al., 2013). Palaeoclimatic studies based on micro-paleontological analyzes indicate uneven development of the Kola Peninsula landscapes in the Late Glacial and Early Holocene. The northern coast of the Peninsula became free of ice first. In this area tundra-steppe vegetation was established for a short time and was later replaced by tundra (Snyder et al, 2000). Southern part of the Kola Peninsula was dependent on the conditions of deglaciation of the White Sea basin and cleared of ice much later (Evzerov et al., 2010; Kolka

Microbial Community Dynamics from Permafrost Across the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary and Response to Abrupt Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Hammad, A.; Mahony, M.; Froese, D. G.; Lanoil, B. D.

2014-12-01

Earth is currently undergoing rapid warming similar to that observed about 10,000 years ago at the end of the Pleistocene. We know a considerable amount about the adaptations and extinctions of mammals and plants at the Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary, but relatively little about changes at the microbial level. Due to permafrost soils' freezing anoxic conditions, they act as microbial diversity archives allowing us to determine how microbial communities adapted to the abrupt warming at the end of P. Since microbial community composition only helps differentiate viable and extant microorganisms in frozen permafrost, microbial activity in thawing permafrost must be investigated to provide a clear understanding of microbial response to climate change. Current increased temperatures will result in warming and potential thaw of permafrost and release of stored organic carbon, freeing it for microbial utilization; turning permafrost into a carbon source. Studying permafrost viable microbial communities' diversity and activity will provide a better understanding of how these microorganisms respond to soil edaphic variability due to climate change across the P/H boundary, providing insight into the changes that the soil community is currently undergoing in this modern era of rapid climate change. Modern soil, H and P permafrost cores were collected from Lucky Lady II site outside Dawson City, Yukon. 16S rRNA high throughput sequencing of permafrost DNA showed the same trends for total and viable community richness and diversity with both decreasing with permafrost depth and only the richness increasing in mid and early P. The modern, H and P soils had 50.9, 33.9, and 27.3% unique viable species and only 14% of the total number of viable species were shared by all soils. Gas flux measurements of thawed permafrost showed metabolic activity in modern and permafrost soils, aerobic CH­­4 consumption in modern, some H and P soils, and anaerobic CH­­4 production in one H

Holocene Evolution of Qing'ao Embayment, Southern China

Science.gov (United States)

Switzer, A. D.; Yu, F.; Chen, B.; Zheng, Z.; Wang, D.

2012-12-01

The Holocene evolution of the Qing'ao embayment, Nan'ao Island, southern China, is primarily the result of the interaction of tectonic activity, climate variation and changes in relative sea level. Characterizing the evolutionary history of the relatively small Qing'ao embayment during the Holocene will help improve our understanding of the driving mechanisms of coastal evolution in the area. To reconstruct the Holocene evolution history we analyzed the grain size, loss on ignition (LOI) and carbonate content of modern and core samples. Modern environmental analogs were examined in surface samples ranging from the coastal sand dunes through to offshore. The results of these modern samples suggest that dune sand (mean size of ~2.33Phi) are slightly finer than beach sand (mean size of 2.13Phi), and nearshore sediment is much coarser than offshore sediment (mean size of 5.90Phi). This modern analogs were then applied to 8 percussion cores from the Qing'ao embayment. A chronological framework obtained from 11 radiocarbon samples suggests that the embayment started to accept deposition since early Holocene, ~8500 cal. yr. BP. Three main phases of Holocene evolution were identified. A basin wide shell-rich sand sheet forms the basal Holocene facies and overlies clay rich presumably Pleistocene sediments or bedrock. This facies records an initial sedimentation phase associated with the early Holocene transgression into the embayment (~8500-6000 cal. yr. BP). The basal facies grades upward to a mixed sandy-mud facies which includes lagoonal clayey-silts, flood tide delta sands and records an estuarine phase lasting from ~6000-1000 cal. yr. BP that appears coincident with falling regional sea levels. Coincident with the estuarine phase is a period of coastal dune building recorded as yet undated massive sands that are found in the upper fill. Toward the end of the estuarine phase it is apparent that dune migration has restricted the lagoon entrance and that this was

Holocene sea-level fluctuation in the southern hemisphere

Science.gov (United States)

Isla, Federico Ignacio

If rising sea levels dominate in the northern hemisphere (NH), falling or fluctuating sea levels predominate in the southern hemisphere (SH). Endogenic processes (tectonics, isostasy or geoidal changes) could explain local or regional mean sea level (MSL) fluctuations but not an hemispherical one. Evidence from South America, Africa, Antarctica, Australia and the Pacific and Indian Oceans suggest that the Holocene transgression rose above the present MSL, in higher latitudes before the tropics. By plotting latitude against the age of MSL arrival at present coasts, good correlation is observed. Oceanic salinity mixing has been already proposed to explain this mid-Holocene sea-level fluctuation. Climate could be the only factor responsible for this hemisphere-wide behavior of MSL. It has been suggested previously that the climate of the SH precedes that of the NH by 3000 years. The climatic optimum, or maximum warmth, occurred predominantly about 6000 BP in the NH, but about 10-9000 BP in the SH. Short-term climatic effects on the sea level (monsoons, southern oscillation/El Niño phenomena) should have significant occurrences during the past in the windiest oceanic hemisphere. This latitudinal trend in former MSL should be considered when using shorelines as reference points for measuring vertical crustal movements.

Harvesting Atlantic Cod under Climate Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Oremus, K. L.

2016-12-01

Previous literature links the growth of a fishery to climate variability. This study uses an age-structured bioeconomic model to compare optimal harvest in the Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod fishery under a variable climate versus a static climate. The optimal harvest path depends on the relationship between fishery growth and the interest rate, with higher interest rates dictating greater harvests now at the cost of long-term stock sustainability. Given the time horizon of a single generation of fishermen under assumptions of a static climate, the model finds that the economically optimal management strategy is to harvest the entire stock in the short term and allow the fishery to collapse. However, if the biological growth of the fishery is assumed to vary with climate conditions, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, there will always be pulses of high growth in the stock. During some of these high-growth years, the growth of the stock and its economic yield can exceed the growth rate of the economy even under high interest rates. This implies that it is not economically optimal to exhaust the New England cod fishery if NAO is included in the biological growth function. This finding may have theoretical implications for the management of other renewable yet exhaustible resources whose growth rates are subject to climate variability.

Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ( Theobroma Cacao ) Yields in Meme Division, South West Region of Cameroon. ... Farm selection was based on age, consistency of sizes and management practices in an attempt to keep the factors affecting cocoa yield constant. Data on cocoa yield, flowering, ...

Middle-Late Holocene environmental history of Kulunda (Southwestern Siberia): vegetation, climate, humans

Science.gov (United States)

Rudaya, N.; Nazarova, L.; Papin, D.; Nourgaliev, D.

2012-04-01

Environmental reconstruction of Mid-Late Holocene vegetation and climate was inferred from pollen records of Lake Big Yarovoe (Kulunda steppe, Southwestern Siberia). Reconstruction suggests generally prevalence of steppe during last 4.45 ka. Relatively warm and dry climate, open semi-desert and dry steppes with patchy birch forest spread between 4.45 and 3.80 ka BP. The largest development of conifers forest started in Kulunda after 3.80 ka BP. Constant presence of dark-coniferous trees Abies and especially Picea between 3.80 and 2.7 ka BP indicates the most humid period in the region during studied time. Onset of the Late Holocene is characterised by dominance of steppe with birch and pine forests in lowlands and river valleys. After AD 1860, open steppe and semi-desert vegetation with fragmentary birch forest have been dominated parallel to sharp reduction of conifers in Kulunda. These results are in agreement with general scheme of Holocene environmental history of surrounding areas including Baraba forest-steppe, Kazakh Upland and Altai Mountains. Territory of Kulunda consists many archaeological sites of Bronze, Iron and Middle Ages. Second half of Bronze Age (4.45-3.80 ka BP) was represented by local human cultures or migrants from the North Kazakhstan. The main archaeological culture of Kulunda alike in the whole Ob`-Irtysh interfluve in this period was Elunino culture. The economical activities of Elunino community were connected with animal breeding especially with sheep and goats. The most humid period (~1795-710 BC; 3.8-2.7 ka BP) in Kulunda corresponded to the end of early Bronze Age and to the onset of the Iron Age. In 18 century BC Andronovo culture, associated with the Indo-Iranians and migrants from Central Kazakhstan, spread in the region. Cattle breeding economy was distinctive features of Andronovo people, however, increase of sheep, goats and horses with transition to nomadic life style was characteristic of the late Bronze Age. This trend is in

Holocene Paleoceanographic Environments at the Chukchi-Alaskan Margin: Implications for Future Changes

Science.gov (United States)

Polyak, L.; Nam, S. I.; Dipre, G.; Kim, S. Y.; Ortiz, J. D.; Darby, D. A.

2017-12-01

The impacts of the North Pacific oceanic and atmospheric system on the Arctic Ocean result in accelerated sea-ice retreat and related changes in hydrography and biota in the western Arctic. Paleoclimatic records from the Pacific sector of the Arctic are key for understanding the long-term history of these interactions. As opposed to stratigraphically long but strongly compressed sediment cores recovered from the deep Arctic Ocean, sediment depocenters on the Chukchi-Alaskan margin yield continuous, medium to high resolution records formed since the last deglaciation. While early Holocene conditions were non-analogous to modern environments due to the effects of prolonged deglaciation and insufficiently high sea levels, mid to late Holocene sediments are more relevant for recent and modern climate variability. Notably, a large depocenter at the Alaskan margin has sedimentation rates estimated as high as a few millimeters per year, thus providing a decadal to near-annual resolution. This high accumulation can be explained by sediment delivery via the Alaskan Coastal Current originating from the Bering Sea and supposedly controlled by the Aleutian Low pressure center. Preliminary results from sediment cores recovering the last several centuries, along with a comparison with other paleoclimatic proxy records from the Arctic-North Pacific region, indicate a persistent role of the Aleutian Low in the Bering Strait inflow and attendant deposition. More proxy studies are underway to reconstruct the history of this circulation system and its relationship with sea ice extent. The expected results will improve our understanding of natural variability in oceanic and atmospheric conditions at the Chukchi-Alaskan margin, a critical area for modulating the Arctic climate change.

Major hydrologic shifts in northwest Florida during the Holocene from a lacustrine sediment record

Science.gov (United States)

Rodysill, J. R.; Donnelly, J. P.

2011-12-01

Recent climate extremes have threatened water resource availability and destroyed homes and infrastructure along the heavily populated northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Water resources in Northwest Florida, in particular, suffer from declining aquifer levels and salt water intrusion despite the presence of extensive river and aquifer systems. Intensive water resource management has been necessary to meet water supply demands during recent droughts. Advanced preparedness for abrupt climate events requires the ability to anticipate when hydrologic extremes are likely to occur; however, the long-term history of hydrologic extremes is not well known, and the instrumental record is too short to resolve longer-term hydrologic variability. Reconstructing the pre-instrumental hydrologic history is essential to building our understanding of the timing of and the driving forces behind wet and dry extremes. Here we present a new record of paleohydrology in northwest Florida based upon variations in sediment lithology and geochemistry from Rattlesnake Lake. We see evidence for both brief and long-lived changes in the lake environment during the Holocene. We compare our record to published pollen-based reconstructions of paleohydrology to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of paleohydrologic extremes across the northern Gulf of Mexico region during the Holocene.

Role of the mid-Holocene environmental transition in the decline of late Neolithic cultures in the deserts of NE China

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Licheng; Xiong, Shangfa; Ding, Zhongli; Jin, Guiyun; Wu, Jiabin; Ye, Wei

2018-06-01

The mid-Holocene environmental transition was characterised by global cooling and the abrupt weakening of the Northern Hemisphere monsoon systems. It is generally considered the key driver of the collapse of several mid-Holocene agricultural societies, on a global scale. However, only a few previous studies have tried to verify the climatic origin of the collapse of these societies, using the compilation of spatiotemporal data at a large scale. Especially, the nature of mid-Holocene human-environment interactions in the climatically-sensitive margin of the East Asian summer monsoon front remains to be thoroughly understood. However, a systematic compilation of archaeological data at a regional scale can be used to verify the role the mid-Holocene environmental transition played in the collapse of late Neolithic cultures in China. Here, we present a regional compilation of Holocene records from sub-aerial sedimentary deposits, lake sediments, and archaeological sites in the deserts of NE China and the adjacent regions to explore human-environment interactions during the mid-Holocene. Comparison of the records of Holocene climate change with the evolution of archaeological sites reveals that the mid-Holocene environmental transition resulted in ecosystem degradation in the deserts of NE China, rendering these areas much less habitable. Faced with substantially increased environmental pressures, the late Neolithic inhabitants used several subsistence strategies to adapt to the environmental transition, including change in agricultural practices and ultimately migration. Overall, our results support the view that a widespread mid-Holocene drought destroyed the rain-fed agricultural and/or plant-based subsistence economies, ultimately contributing to the collapse of late Neolithic cultures in NE China.

Holocene Planktonic Foraminiferal Assemblage Shifts on the California Margin; Environmental Forcing of Medieval Chumash Society?

Science.gov (United States)

Fisler, J. A.; Hendy, I.

2005-12-01

The contribution of D. Kennett and J.P. Kennett to recent literature on native Chumash cultural evolution has linked societal changes between 500 and 1300 A.D. with a rapidly-changing environment. As large-amplitude fluctuations in surface water and climate conditions at the California Margin would have had severe implications for local flora and fauna, high resolution paleooceanographic records from ODP Site 893 should record these environmental changes. The planktonic foraminifera of Santa Barbara Basin are known to be sensitive to climate change over glacial/interglacial and stadial/interstadial time scales. Here we present a Holocene record of planktonic foraminiferal assemblage change that demonstrates this sensitivity continued through what is generally considered to be a warm stable climatic interval. Absolute numbers of planktonic foraminifera specimens decreased through the Holocene, from a peak of over 30,000 specimens/cm3 at 9 kyr BP to several thousand in the last millennia. Eurythermal, high nutrient species G. bulloides and G. quinqueloba show opposite abundance trends throughout deglaciation, with significant decreases in G. bulloides abundance during the Late Holocene while G. quinqueloba increases in abundance. Significant assemblage shifts occurring at 2 kyr BP are particularly pronounced in N. pachyderma dextral/sinistral ratios. Large fluctuations in the dextral/sinistral ratio occur during this interval, varying between 50 and 95%. The most recent decrease in the ratio occurs 800 yrs BP before returning to modern values at 500 yr BP. Assemblage data suggest more dramatic environmental change than indicated by planktonic oxygen isotope records. While N. pachyderma dextral/sinistral ratios generally follow oxygen isotopes throughout the Holocene, the records decouple at 2 kyr BP when the first substantial decrease in the ratio occurs. Salinity may, in part, explain this observation. ODP Site 893 is located at the confluence of the cool

US Climate Variability and Predictability Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patterson, Mike [University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

2017-11-14

The US CLIVAR Project Office administers the US CLIVAR Program with its mission to advance understanding and prediction of climate variability and change across timescales with an emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system. The Project Office promotes and facilitates scientific collaboration within the US and international climate and Earth science communities, addressing priority topics from subseasonal to centennial climate variability and change; the global energy imbalance; the ocean’s role in climate, water, and carbon cycles; climate and weather extremes; and polar climate changes. This project provides essential one-year support of the Project Office, enabling the participation of US scientists in the meetings of the US CLIVAR bodies that guide scientific planning and implementation, including the scientific steering committee that establishes program goals and evaluates progress of activities to address them, the science team of funded investigators studying the ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic, and two working groups tackling the priority research topics of Arctic change influence on midlatitude climate and weather extremes and the decadal-scale widening of the tropical belt.

Stalagmite-derived Last Glacial Maximum - Mid Holocene Indian Monsoon Record from Krem Mawmluh, Meghalaya, NE India

Science.gov (United States)

Lone, M. A.; Routh, J.; Kumar, V.; Mangini, A.; Rangarajan, R.; Ghosh, P.; Munnuru Singamshetty, K.; Shen, C. C.; Ahmad, S. M.; Mii, H. S.

2016-12-01

Seasonal reversals in monsoon winds strongly influence rainfall patterns on the Indian sub-continent regulating the socio-economy of south Asian region. High-resolution centennial-millennial scale records of climate change from the core zone of the monsoon impacted region are nonetheless very few. Here, we report Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability record from an 87-cm long stalagmite (KM-1) from Krem Mawmluh in the Khasi Hills, Meghalaya. The absolute dated stalagmite record ranges from 22.7 (LGM) to 6.7 ka (Mid Holocene), revealing last glacial-interglacial paleoclimatic changes over the Indian sub-continent. A sharp change in δ18O ( 5‰) and growth rate post Younger Dryas (YD) is marked by continued rapid speleogenesis in KM-1 and coincides with monsoon intensification during the early Holocene. Prominent multi-centennial to millennial scale dry phases in ISM activity are observed from LGM to YD. During early to mid-Holocene, the record shows significant multi-decadal to centennial scale changes. The high frequency δ18O variations referring to abrupt changes in ISM activity are believed to be driven by changes in temperature and shifting of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.

Paleoecological studies on variability in marine fish populations: A long-term perspective on the impacts of climatic change on marine ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Finney, Bruce P.; Alheit, Jürgen; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Field, David B.; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Struck, Ulrich

2010-02-01

The use of historical fishing records to understand relationships between climatic change and fish abundance is limited by the relatively short duration of these records, and complications due to the strong influence of human activity in addition to climatic change. Sedimentary records containing scales, bones or geochemical proxies of variability in fish populations provide unique insights on long-term ecosystem dynamics and relationships with climatic change. Available records from Holocene sediments are summarized and synthesized. The records are from several widespread locations near or along the continental margins of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans, including Alaska, USA (Pacific salmon), Saanich and Effingham Inlets, British Columbia, Canada (pelagic fish), Santa Barbara Basin, California, USA (Northern anchovies and Pacific sardines), Gulf of California, Mexico (Pacific sardines, Northern anchovies and Pacific hake), Peru upwelling system (sardines, anchovies and hake), and Benguela Current System, South Africa (sardines, anchovies and hake). These records demonstrate that fish population sizes are not constant, and varied significantly over a range of time scales prior to the advent of large-scale commercial fishing. In addition to the decadal-scale variability commonly observed in historical records, the long-term records reveal substantial variability over centennial and millennial time scales. Shifts in abundance are often, but not always, correlated with regional and/or global climatic changes. The long-term perspective reveals different patterns of variability in fish populations, as well as fish-climate relationships, than suggested by analysis of historical records. Many records suggest prominent changes in fish abundance at ca. 1000-1200 AD, during the Little Ice Age, and during the transition at the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century that may be correlative, and that were likely driven by major hemispheric or global

Climate, catchment runoff and limnological drivers of carbon and oxygen isotope composition of diatom frustules from the central andean altiplano during the Lateglacial and Early Holocene

OpenAIRE

Hernández, Armand; Bao, Roberto; Giralt, Santiago; Sáez, Alberto; Leng, Melanie J.; Barker, Philips A.; Kendrick, C.P.; Sloane, Hilary J.

2013-01-01

Diatom-based carbon and oxygen isotope analyses (δ13Cdiatom and δ18Odiatom) were performed on diatomrich laminated sediments of Lake Chungará (Andean Altiplano, northern Chile) deposited during the Lateglacial and Early Holocene (12,400e8300 cal years BP) to reconstruct climate change and environmental response across this major climate transition. The δ13Cdiatom data show both centennial-tomillennial scale changes related to fluctuations in lake productivity and CO2 concentration in the lake...

Disease in a more variable and unpredictable climate

Science.gov (United States)

McMahon, T. A.; Raffel, T.; Rohr, J. R.; Halstead, N.; Venesky, M.; Romansic, J.

2014-12-01

Global climate change is shifting the dynamics of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. Despite this, the role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial. Climate change is expected to increase climate variability in addition to increasing mean temperatures, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America support this framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was inconsistent with the pattern of Bd growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. Consistent with our laboratory experiments, increased regional temperature variability associated with global El Niño climatic events was the best predictor of widespread amphibian losses in the genus Atelopus. Thus, incorporating the effects of small-scale temporal variability in climate can greatly improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on disease.

New insights into deglacial climate variability in tropical South America from molecular fossil and isotopic indicators in Lake Titicaca

Science.gov (United States)

Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; Fornace, K.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.

2010-12-01

As one of the main centers of tropical convection, the South American Altiplano plays a crucial role in the long-term climate variability of South America. However, both the timing and the drivers of climate variability on orbital to millennial timescales remain poorly understood for this region. New data from molecular fossil (e.g., TEX86) and compound specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) analyses provide new insights into the climate evolution of this region over the last ~50 kyr. TEX86 temperature reconstructions suggest that the Altiplano warmed as early as 19- 21 kyr ago and proceeded rapidly, consistent with published evidence for an early retreat of LGM glaciers at this time at some locations. The early warming signal observed at Lake Titicaca also appears to be synchronous with continental temperature reconstructions at some sites in tropical Africa, but leads tropical SST changes by several thousands of years. Although the initiation of warming coincided with the peak in southern hemisphere summer insolation, subsequent temperature increases were accompanied by decreases in southern hemisphere insolation, suggesting a northern hemisphere driver for temperature changes in tropical South America. Preliminary D/H ratios from leaf waxes appear to support existing data suggesting that wet conditions prevailed until the late glacial/early Holocene and are broadly consistent with local southern hemisphere summer insolation forcing of the summer monsoon. These data suggest that temperature and precipitation changes during the last deglaciation were decoupled and that both local and extratropical drivers are important for controlling climate change in this region on orbital timescales.

Palynological Investigation of the Holocene Thermal Optimum in New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Newnham, R. M.; McGlone, M. S.; Wilmshurst, J. M.

2005-12-01

It has long been assumed in New Zealand (NZ) that the Holocene Thermal Optimum (HTO) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene. Nearly 40 years ago, Hendy and Wilson pioneered the use of 18O/16O composition of calcite in NZ speleothems to reconstruct past climate and in so doing showed an HTO occurring earlier in NZ than in comparable Northern Hemisphere records (Hendy & Wilson,1968). More recent work on NZ speleothems (Williams et al., 2005) corroborates the concept of an early HTO dated between ca 11.7 and 10.6 ka, but there is no definitive description of the event as a NZ-wide phenomenon, no intensive dating of it, nor temperature quantification. Moreover, there is no firm conclusion as to whether it is registered consistently between different proxies and across NZ regions. Until recently, attempts to quantify past climate change from NZ pollen data have been hindered by failure to demonstrate robust relationships between modern pollen assemblages and climate due, it is thought, to strong anthropogenic modification of natural vegetation patterns and steep climatic gradients (Norton et al., 1986). However, as deforestation commenced only ca 700 years ago, and is unambiguously detected in pollen records from throughout NZ, an almost unique opportunity exists to develop pollen-climate transfer functions using pre-human pollen-vegetation sources. McGlone and Wilmshurst have assembled an extensive (138-site) `modern' pollen database, based on ca 700 yr BP pre-deforestation pollen assemblages from peat and lake cores. This now provides a basis for more secure pollen-climate reconstruction than hitherto has been possible. Statistical modelling of the environmental determinants of patterns in the pre-deforestation pollen database indicates the strongest relationship (r2 > 0.8) is with Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) and suggests that this parameter can be reliably reconstructed, with error estimates, from Late Quaternary NZ pollen profiles. We use this database to

Cocoa farming households' vulnerability to climate variability in Ekiti ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

BRO OKOJIE

Rural livelihoods in south western Nigeria are at risk to climate variability on the short run and climate change on .... to reduce their vulnerability to climate variability as well as longer-term climate change. Nigeria has lost her leading role in exportation of cocoa. This has been attributed .... sizes and type of farm ownership.

Tropical Peat and Peatland Development in the Floodplains of the Greater Pamba Basin, South-Western India during the Holocene.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumaran, Navnith K P; Padmalal, Damodaran; Limaye, Ruta B; S, Vishnu Mohan; Jennerjahn, Tim; Gamre, Pradeep G

2016-01-01

Holocene sequences in the humid tropical region of Kerala, South-western (SW) India have preserved abundance of organic-rich sediments in the form of peat and its rapid development in a narrow time frame towards Middle Holocene has been found to be significant. The sub-coastal areas and flood plains of the Greater Pamba Basin have provided palaeorecords of peat indicating that the deposits are essentially formed within freshwater. The combination of factors like stabilized sea level and its subsequent fall since the Middle Holocene, topographic relief and climatic conditions led to rapid peat accumulation across the coastal lowlands. The high rainfall and massive floods coupled with a rising sea level must have inundated > 75% of the coastal plain land converting it into a veritable lagoon-lake system that eventually led to abrupt termination of the forest ecosystem and also converted the floodplains into peatland where accumulation of peat almost to 2.0-3.0 m thickness in coastal lowlands and river basins during the shorter interval in the Middle Holocene. Vast areas of the coastal plains of Kerala have been converted into carbon rich peatland during the Middle Holocene and transforming the entire coastal stretch and associated landforms as one of the relatively youngest peatlands in the extreme southern tip of India. Unlike the uninterrupted formation of peatlands of considerable extent during the Holocene in Southeast Asia, the south Peninsular Indian region has restricted and short intervals of peatlands in the floodplains and coastal lowlands. Such a scenario is attributed to the topographic relief of the terrain and the prevailing hydrological regimes and environmental conditions as a consequence of monsoon variability since Middle Holocene in SW India. Considering the tropical coastal lowlands and associated peatlands are excellent repositories of carbon, they are very important for regional carbon cycling and habitat diversity. The alarming rate of land

Tropical Peat and Peatland Development in the Floodplains of the Greater Pamba Basin, South-Western India during the Holocene.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Navnith K P Kumaran

Full Text Available Holocene sequences in the humid tropical region of Kerala, South-western (SW India have preserved abundance of organic-rich sediments in the form of peat and its rapid development in a narrow time frame towards Middle Holocene has been found to be significant. The sub-coastal areas and flood plains of the Greater Pamba Basin have provided palaeorecords of peat indicating that the deposits are essentially formed within freshwater. The combination of factors like stabilized sea level and its subsequent fall since the Middle Holocene, topographic relief and climatic conditions led to rapid peat accumulation across the coastal lowlands. The high rainfall and massive floods coupled with a rising sea level must have inundated > 75% of the coastal plain land converting it into a veritable lagoon-lake system that eventually led to abrupt termination of the forest ecosystem and also converted the floodplains into peatland where accumulation of peat almost to 2.0-3.0 m thickness in coastal lowlands and river basins during the shorter interval in the Middle Holocene. Vast areas of the coastal plains of Kerala have been converted into carbon rich peatland during the Middle Holocene and transforming the entire coastal stretch and associated landforms as one of the relatively youngest peatlands in the extreme southern tip of India. Unlike the uninterrupted formation of peatlands of considerable extent during the Holocene in Southeast Asia, the south Peninsular Indian region has restricted and short intervals of peatlands in the floodplains and coastal lowlands. Such a scenario is attributed to the topographic relief of the terrain and the prevailing hydrological regimes and environmental conditions as a consequence of monsoon variability since Middle Holocene in SW India. Considering the tropical coastal lowlands and associated peatlands are excellent repositories of carbon, they are very important for regional carbon cycling and habitat diversity. The

Evidence of Suess solar-cycle bursts in Holocene speleothem d18O records

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Mads Faurschou; Jacobsen, B. H.; Riisager, Peter

2012-01-01

Several studies indicate that changes in solar activity may have driven Holocene subtropical monsoon variability on decadal and centennial timescales, but the strength and nature of this link remains debated. In this study, we combine a recent mapping of the Holocene solar-cycle activity with four...... in driving centennial-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in the subtropics during the Holocene....

Holocene lake-level fluctuations of Lake Aricota, Southern Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Placzek, C.; Quade, Jay; Betancourt, J.L.

2001-01-01

Lacustrine deposits exposed around Lake Aricota, Peru (17?? 22???S), a 7.5-km2 lake dammed by debris flows, provide a middle to late Holocene record of lake-level fluctuations. Chronological context for shoreline deposits was obtained from radiocarbon dating of vascular plant remains and other datable material with minimal 14C reservoir effects (Titicaca (16?? S), which is only 130 km to the northeast and shares a similar climatology. Comparisons with other marine and terrestrial records highlight emerging contradictions over the nature of mid-Holocene climate in the central Andes. ?? 2001 University of Washington.

A multiproxy fjord sediment record of Holocene climate change from the subantarctic Auckland Islands

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Browne, I. M.; Moy, C. M.; Wilson, G. S.; Neil, H.; Riesselman, C. R.

2014-12-01

The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SHWW) and the associated oceanic fronts have a major influence on atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. Sediment cores recovered from fjords along the eastern margin of the sub-Antarctic Auckland Islands (51°S, 166°E) are ideally located to sensitively record changes in the strength and position of the SHWW throughout the Holocene. A 5.75m core from Hanfield Inlet preserves both marine and terrestrial environmental components, which we use to develop a multiproxy record of past climatic conditions. This core, composed entirely of brown marine mud and silt, was recovered from a depth of 44m. Based on the entrance sill depth of the fjord (10mbsl) and our knowledge of regional sea level rise, we infer that the base of the core will be early Holocene in age, which will be confirmed using radiocarbon age dating. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages (125-500μm fraction) in surface and downcore samples are dominated by three taxa, Nonionellina flemingi, Cassidulina carinata and Quinqueloculina seminula. These species are either shallow infaunal or infaunal. We will use stable carbon (δ¹³C) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O) isotope geochemistry of the benthic foraminifera Nonionellina flemingi, Bolivina cf. earlandi, Trifarina angulosa, Bulimina marginata f. marginata and Cibicides species (all identified from Rose Bengal stained box-core samples) to reconstruct water column fluctuations associated with frontal migration. These results will compliment bulk sediment C and N concentration and isotope reconstructions of terrestrial organic matter delivery to fjord sub-basins over the past 12,000 years.

Blue Carbon Sequestration in Florida Coastal Wetlands - Response to Recent Climate Change and Holocene Climate Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Vaughn, D.; Bianchi, T. S.; Osborne, T.; Shields, M. R.; Kenney, W.

2017-12-01

Intertidal forests and salt marshes represent a major component of Florida's coasts and are essential to the health and integrity of coastal Florida's ecological and economic systems. In addition, coastal wetlands have been recognized as highly efficient carbon sinks with their ability to store carbon on time scales from centuries to millennia. Although losses of salt marshes, mangroves, and seagrass beds through both natural and anthropogenic forces are threatening their ability to act as carbon sinks globally, the poleward encroachment of mangroves into higher latitude salt marshes may lead to regional increases in carbon sequestration as mangroves store more carbon than salt marshes. For Florida, this encroachment of mangroves into salt marshes is prominent along the northern coasts where fewer freeze events have coincided with an increase in mangrove extent over the past several decades. Soil cores collected from a northeastern Florida wetland will allow us to determine whether the recent poleward encroachment of mangroves into northern Florida salt marshes has led to an increase in belowground carbon storage. The soil cores, which are approximately two to three meters in length, will also provide the first known record of carbon storage in a northern Florida wetland during the Holocene. Initial results from the top 40 cm, which represents 100 years based on dating of other northern Florida wetland cores, suggest more carbon is currently being stored within the transition between marsh and mangrove than in areas currently covered by salt marsh vegetation or mangroves. The transitional zone also has a much larger loss of carbon within the top 40 cm compared to the mangrove and marsh cores. Lignin-based degradation indices along with other biomarker data and 210Pb/137Cs ages will be presented to demonstrate how much of this loss of carbon may be related to degradation and how much may be related to changes in carbon sources.

Arctic climate change and decadal variability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Linden, van der Eveline C.

2016-01-01

High northern latitudes exhibit enhanced near-surface warming in a climate with increasing greenhouse gases compared to other parts of the globe, indicating an amplified climate response to external forcing. Decadal to multidecadal variability sometimes enhances and at other times reduces the

Holocene Millennial-scale Surface and Bottom Water Variability, Feni Drift, NE Atlantic Ocean: Foraminiferal Assemblages

Science.gov (United States)

Lassen, S. J.; Richter, T. O.; de Stigter, H. C.; van Weering, T. C. E.; de Haas, H.

A high-resolution sediment core from Feni Drift (ENAM9606, 56N 14W, 2543 m wa- ter depth) was investigated for planktonic and benthic foraminiferal assemblages dur- ing the last 12,000 years. During the Preboreal, peak abundances of T.quinqueloba indicate the passage of the Arctic front over the core site. Holocene planktonic foraminiferal assemblages indicate a gradual warming trend of surface water masses punctuated by a major cooling (8,200ky event s.l.), and possibly a slight cooling dur- ing the last 3,000 years. The interval from 10 to 5kyrs shows higher and fluctuating abundances of T.quinqueloba and G.bulloides, which suggest proximity of the subarc- tic front and enhanced spring blooms compared to the upper Holocene. Abundance peaks of N.pachyderma(s) and/or T.quinqueloba indicate a series of millennial-scale cooling events during the entire Holocene, which can be correlated to similar episodes previously described from other locations in the North Atlantic and Norwegian- Greenland Sea. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages indicate a gradual transition from seasonal, spring-bloom related food supply in the Lower Holocene (dominance of the phytodetritus species E.exigua) to possibly lower, but more sustained food supply in the Upper Holocene (dominance of C.obtusa and C.laevigata).

Paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental reconstruction for middle and late holocene in Uruguay southeastern New contributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Del Puerto, L.; Bracco, R.; Inda, H.; Garcia, F.; Panario, D.; Castineira, C.; Capdepont, I.

2012-01-01

This work is about the study carried out within the framework of the environmental evolution and the prehistoric human occupation on coastal lagoons in the east of Uruguay. The analysis of the sediments in the zone enable the reconstruction of the Holocene climate history as well as the construction of the Paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental model belong to the middle and late Holocene

History of Aral Sea level variability and current scientific debates

Science.gov (United States)

Cretaux, Jean-François; Letolle, René; Bergé-Nguyen, Muriel

2013-11-01

The Aral Sea has shrunk drastically over the past 50 years, largely due to water abstraction from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers for land irrigation. Over a longer timescale, Holocene palaeolimnological reconstruction of variability in water levels of the Aral Sea since 11,700 BP indicates a long history of alternating phases of regression and transgression, which have been attributed variously to climate, tectonic and anthropogenic forcing. The hydrological history of the Aral Sea has been investigated by application of a variety of scientific approaches, including archaeology, palaeolimnological palaeoclimate reconstruction, geophysics, sedimentology, and more recently, space science. Many issues concerning lake level variability over the Holocene and more recent timescales, and the processes that drive the changes, are still a matter for active debate. Our aim in this article is to review the current debates regarding key issues surrounding the causes and magnitude of Aral Sea level variability on a variety of timescales from months to thousands of years. Many researchers have shown that the main driving force of Aral Sea regressions and transgressions is climate change, while other authors have argued that anthropogenic forcing is the main cause of Aral Sea water level variations over the Holocene. Particular emphasis is made on contributions from satellite remote sensing data in order to improve our understanding of the influence of groundwater on the current hydrological water budget of the Aral Sea since 2005. Over this period of time, water balance computation has been performed and has shown that the underground water inflow to the Aral Sea is close to zero with an uncertainty of 3 km3/year.

Late Glacial and Early Holocene Climatic Changes Based on a Multiproxy Lacustrine Sediment Record from Northeast Siberia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kokorowski, H D; Anderson, P M; Sletten, R S; Lozhkin, A V; Brown, T A

2008-05-20

Palynological (species assemblage, pollen accumulation rate), geochemical (carbon to nitrogen ratios, organic carbon and biogenic silica content), and sedimentological (particle size, magnetic susceptibility) data combined with improved chronology and greater sampling resolution from a new core from Elikchan 4 Lake provide a stronger basis for defining paleoenvironmental changes than was previously possible. Persistence of herb-dominated tundra, slow expansion of Betula and Alnus shrubs, and low percentages of organic carbon and biogenic silica suggest that the Late-Glacial transition (ca. 16,000-11,000 cal. yr BP) was a period of gradual rather than abrupt vegetation and climatic change. Consistency of all Late-Glacial data indicates no Younger Dryas climatic oscillation. A dramatic peak in pollen accumulation rates (ca. 11,000-9800 cal. yr BP) suggests a possible summer temperature optimum, but finer grain-sizes, low magnetic susceptibility, and greater organic carbon and biogenic silica, while showing significant warming at ca. 11,000 cal. yr BP, offer no evidence of a Holocene thermal maximum. When compared to trends in other paleo-records, the new Elikchan data underscore the apparent spatial complexity of climatic responses in Northeast Siberia to global forcings between ca. 16,000-9000 cal. yr BP.

Precipitation change and its effects on prehistorical human activities in the Gonghe Basin, Northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during middle and late Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Xiaoqing; Hou, Guangliang; Wang, Fangfang; Wang, Qingbo

2018-02-01

Northeastern Qinghai-tibet Plateau is considered as the ideal region for study of the climate change during the Holocene. Based on the meteorological data, the surface & fossil pollen data, this paper reconstructed the precipitation series of the region since middle Holocene with the GIS and MAT techniques, and discussed its relationship with prehistorical human activities. The results indicate that there are four major climatic phases: (I) Middle Holocene Humid Phase (6300-5000 aBP), with the primitive millet-farming first imported into the region; (II) Late Middle Holocene Sub-humid Phase (5000-3900 aBP), with the millet-farming spread rapidly within the region; (III) Late Holocene Fluctuation Phase (3900-2900 aBP), with the mean annual precipitation dropped down to lower than 240 mm, and a production mode-shift to a combination of cropping and husbandry; (IV) Late Holocene Stationary Phase (2900-0 aBP), with a precipitation alike the modern time, and a steady farming-pastoral economic pattern.

Present and Future Modes of Low Frequency Climate Variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cane, Mark A.

2014-02-20

This project addressed area (1) of the FOA, “Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability”. Our overarching objective is to detect, describe and understand the changes in low frequency variability between model simulations of the preindustrial climate and simulations of a doubled CO2 climate. The deliverables are a set of papers providing a dynamical characterization of interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in coupled models with attention to the changes in this low frequency variability between pre-industrial concentrations of greenhouse gases and a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The principle mode of analysis, singular vector decomposition, is designed to advance our physical, mechanistic understanding. This study will include external natural variability due to solar and volcanic aerosol variations as well as variability internal to the climate system. An important byproduct is a set of analysis tools for estimating global singular vector structures from the archived output of model simulations.

Modeling sensitivity study of the possible impact of snow and glaciers developing over Tibetan Plateau on Holocene African-Asian summer monsoon climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Jin

2009-08-01

Full Text Available The impacts of various scenarios of a gradual snow and glaciers developing over the Tibetan Plateau on climate change in Afro-Asian monsoon region and other regions during the Holocene (9 kyr BP–0 kyr BP are studied by using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2. The simulations show that the imposed snow and glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau in the mid-Holocene induce global summer temperature decreases over most of Eurasia but in the Southern Asia temperature response is opposite. With the imposed snow and glaciers, summer precipitation decreases strongly in North Africa and South Asia as well as northeastern China, while it increases in Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean. For the whole period of Holocene (9 kyr BP–0 kyr BP, the response of vegetation cover to the imposed snow and glaciers cover over the Tibetan Plateau is not synchronous in South Asia and in North Africa, showing an earlier and a more rapid decrease in vegetation cover in North Africa from 9 kyr BP to 6 kyr BP while it has only minor influence on that in South Asia until 5 kyr BP. The precipitation decreases rapidly in North Africa and South Asia while it decreases slowly or unchanged during 6 kyr BP to 0 kyr BP with imposed snow and glacier cover over the Tibetan Plateau. The different scenarios of snow and glacier developing over the Tibetan Plateau would result in differences in variation of temperature, precipitation and vegetation cover in North Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia. The model results suggest that the development of snow and ice cover over Tibetan Plateau represents an additional important climate feedback, which amplify orbital forcing and produces a significant synergy with the positive vegetation feedback.

Western equatorial African forest-savanna mosaics: a legacy of late Holocene climatic change?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Ngomanda

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Past vegetation and climate changes reconstructed using two pollen records from Lakes Maridor and Nguène, located in the coastal savannas and inland rainforest of Gabon, respectively, provide new insights into the environmental history of western equatorial African rainforests during the last 4500 cal yr BP. These pollen records indicate that the coastal savannas of western equatorial Africa did not exist during the mid-Holocene and instead the region was covered by evergreen rainforests. From ca. 4000 cal yr BP a progressive decline of inland evergreen rainforest, accompanied by the expansion of semi-deciduous rainforest, occurred synchronously with grassland colonisation in the coastal region of Gabon. The contraction of moist evergreen rainforest and the establishment of coastal savannas in Gabon suggest decreasing humidity from ca. 4000 cal yr BP. The marked reduction in evergreen rainforest and subsequent savanna expansion was followed from 2700 cal yr BP by the colonization of secondary forests dominated by the palm, Elaeis guineensis, and the shrub, Alchornea cordifolia (Euphorbiaceae. A return to wetter climatic conditions from about 1400 cal yr BP led to the renewed spread of evergreen rainforest inland, whereas a forest-savanna mosaic still persists in the coastal region. There is no evidence to suggest that the major environmental changes observed were driven by human impact.

Effects of interannual climate variability on tropical tree cover

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Holmgren, M.; Hirota, M.; Nes, van E.H.; Scheffer, M.

2013-01-01

Climatic warming is substantially intensifying the global water cycle1 and is projected to increase rainfall variability2. Using satellite data, we show that higher climatic variability is associated with reduced tree cover in the wet tropics globally. In contrast, interannual variability in

Fire-climate-human interactions during the postglacial period at Sunrise Ridge, Mount Rainier National Park, Washington (USA)

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Megan K.; Lukens, Michael L.; McCutcheon, Patrick T.; Burtchard, Greg C.

2017-12-01

With the creation of Mount Rainier National Park (MORA) in 1899 came the active management of the park's landscapes and a heavy emphasis on fire suppression. Today, managers at MORA seek to better manage current fire activity; however, this requires an improved understanding of past fire activity on the mountain. In this study high-resolution macroscopic charcoal analysis and pollen analysis of lake sediment records was used to reconstruct the postglacial fire and vegetation history for the Sunrise Ridge area of MORA. Fire activity was lowest during the Late Glacial when vegetation was sparse and climate was cool and dry. Fire activity increased during the early Holocene as the regional climate warmed and dried, and burnable biomass became more abundant. Fire activity continued to increase into the middle Holocene (until ca. 6600 cal yr BP) even as the regional climate became wetter and eventually cooler; the modern-day mesic forest and subalpine meadow landscapes of the park established at this time. Fire activity was generally highest and mean fire return intervals were lowest on Sunrise Ridge during the late Holocene, and are consistent with tree-ring based estimates of fire frequency. The similarity between the Sunrise Ridge and other paleofire records in the Pacific Northwest suggests that broad-scale climatic shifts, such as the retreat of the Cordilleran ice sheet and changes in annual insolation, as well as increased interannual climate variability (i.e., drought) particularly in the middle to late Holocene, were responsible for changes in fire activity during the postglacial period. However, abundant and increasing archaeological evidence from Sunrise Ridge during the middle to late Holocene suggests that humans may have also influenced the landscape at this time. It is likely that fires will continue to increase at MORA as drought becomes a more frequent occurrence in the Pacific Northwest.

Climate Variability and Phytoplankton in the Pacific Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Rousseaux, Cecile

2012-01-01

The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (pphytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Nina events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.

Holocene Vegetation and Fire Dynamics for Ecosystem Management in the Spruce-Moss Domain in Northwestern Québec

Science.gov (United States)

Andy, H.; Blarquez, O.; Grondin, P.

2017-12-01

Facing the depletion of the wood resource in Québec and possible threats such as climate change, actors of the forest sector urge the need for a scientific frame to the forest management. A set of reference conditions has been developed for defining management targets that will help to keep forests within their natural range of variability according to the preindustrial period (XIX-XX centuries). Those reference conditions are based on the stands age-class distribution under a given fire regime that enable to define the percentage of old-growth forest (>100 years) to be maintained in a landscape. For the western spruce-moss domain in Québec, the fire return interval (FRI) is equal to 150 years resulting in a target of 48% of old-growth forests. Yet, this target supposes that the environment and the ecosystem processes are homogeneous for an entire bioclimatic domain of 175 000 km2. By using a Redundancy Analysis (RDA) on modern inventories data on natural and human disturbances; climate and physical variables and forest composition, we were able to distinguish 5 main zones where interactions between stands and their environment are homogeneous and where local management targets could be developed. We then used 10 published sedimentary pollens and charcoal series in order to reconstruct the holocene fire and vegetation dynamics for those zones. Vegetation deduced from the analysis of the pollen diagrams showed that the long-term vegetation dynamics are zone specific indicating that the modern forest composition is a result of the Holocene trajectories occurring within each zone. Charcoals series were statistically analyzed for past fire detection and long-term FRI reconstruction. They suggest that for the entire territory the holocene FRI range from 174 to 265 years resulting in old-growth forests percentage within 44 and 65% depending on the zone. Hence, we conclude that current management targets should be revised to fit more with local forests ecosystem

Comparing farmers' perception of climate change and variability with ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Perception of climate change and variability supported by local knowledge has helped to advance understanding of climate change and its impacts on agricultural land-use systems. This study compares farmers' perception of climate change and variability in four communities of the Upper East Region of Ghana. Using a ...

Holocene climate and environmental change in the Palliser Triangle: a geoscientific context for evaluating the impacts of climate change on the southern Canadian prairies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lemmen, D. S.; Vance, R. E. [eds.

1999-07-01

The Palliser Triangle is the driest portion of the Canadian Prairies, and one of the most climatically sensitive regions in Canada. As proof of that, it has suffered severe droughts in the 1920s, 1930s and the 1980s. General climatic models predict that future global warming will be most pronounced in northern regions and continental interiors, including the Great Plains of North America. Evidence of warming is already present in the regional climate record, suggesting that the Palliser Triangle is likely to become even more arid, and drought frequency may increase. This volume contains 18 papers related to major objectives of a project involving the use of the unique paleoenvironmental records available in the Palliser Triangle to assess the impacts of future climate change. Two major objectives of the project are of particular focus: the reconstruction of the Holocene (post-glacial) climatic and hydrological changes, and the evaluation of the relationship between climate and landscape processes. Each paper is capable of standing on its own as a contribution to a specific geoscience discipline; by bringing them together in one regionally focused volume, the editors intend to highlight the need for interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary approaches to the study of global climate change issues. The first paper provides a broad summary of the major results, followed by nine papers devoted to records of past climate and hydrological change documented in paleolimnological and hydrogeological studies. The remaining eight papers focus on geomorphic processes in the Palliser Triangle, and on explanations of how these processes respond to climate forcing. Since each contribution can stand its own, each paper has its own abstract in English and French and its own bibliography. There is an author index for the volume as whole.

Input variable selection for interpolating high-resolution climate ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Although the primary input data of climate interpolations are usually meteorological data, other related (independent) variables are frequently incorporated in the interpolation process. One such variable is elevation, which is known to have a strong influence on climate. This research investigates the potential of 4 additional ...

The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Berger

2013-04-01

Full Text Available In the present work the Arctic sea ice in the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climates are analysed and compared on the basis of climate-model results from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2 and phase 3 (PMIP3. The PMIP3 models generally simulate smaller and thinner sea-ice extents than the PMIP2 models both for the pre-industrial and the mid-Holocene climate. Further, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 models all simulate a smaller and thinner Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial control climate. The PMIP3 models also simulate thinner winter sea ice than the PMIP2 models. The winter sea-ice extent response, i.e. the difference between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climate, varies among both PMIP2 and PMIP3 models. Approximately one half of the models simulate a decrease in winter sea-ice extent and one half simulates an increase. The model-mean summer sea-ice extent is 11 % (21 % smaller in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate simulations in the PMIP2 (PMIP3. In accordance with the simple model of Thorndike (1992, the sea-ice thickness response to the insolation change from the pre-industrial to the mid-Holocene is stronger in models with thicker ice in the pre-industrial climate simulation. Further, the analyses show that climate models for which the Arctic sea-ice responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are similar may simulate rather different sea-ice responses to the change in solar forcing between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial. For two specific models, which are analysed in detail, this difference is found to be associated with differences in the simulated cloud fractions in the summer Arctic; in the model with a larger cloud fraction the effect of insolation change is muted. A sub-set of the mid-Holocene simulations in the PMIP ensemble exhibit open water off the north-eastern coast of Greenland in summer, which can provide a fetch

Sediment biomarkers elucidate the Holocene ontogeny of a shallow lake.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T E Arnold

Full Text Available We carried out geochemical analyses on a sediment core from Lake Harris, Florida (USA to identify sources of organic matter to the sediment throughout the Holocene, and relate changes in those sources to shifts in past climate and environmental conditions. We hypothesized that the sources of organic matter changed in response to regional hydrologic shifts following de-glaciation, and to human population expansion in the state during the 20th century. Hydroclimate shifts in Florida were related to: 1 a steady rise in relative sea level and the fresh water table that began in the early Holocene, 2 wetland formation and expansion ca. 5,000 cal yrs BP, and 3 the onset of the modern El Niño (ENSO cycle ~3,000 cal yrs BP. Stratigraphic changes in sediment variables from Lake Harris reflect each of these hydroclimate periods. Early in the Holocene, Lake Harris was a marsh-like system in a relatively dry, open-prairie environment. Organic sediments deposited at that time were derived largely from terrestrial sources, as inferred from high TOC/TN ratios, a dominance of longer-chain of n-alkanes (n-C29-31, relatively negative organic carbon isotope values (δ13CTOC, and low biogenic silica concentrations. In the middle Holocene, a positive shift in δ13CTOC coincided with the onset of wetter conditions in Florida. Submerged macrophyte biomarkers (n-C21-23 dominated, and during that period bulk organic carbon isotope values were most similar to δ13C values of mid-chain-length n-alkanes. In the late Holocene, δ13CTOC values declined, CaCO3 levels decreased to trace amounts, organic carbon concentrations increased and diatom biogenic silica concentrations increased from 10 to 120 mg g-1. Around 2,900 cal yrs BP, the effects of ENSO intensified and many Florida lakes deepened to their current limnetic state. Concentrations of algal and cyanobacterial biomarkers in the Lake Harris core increased by orders of magnitude after about AD 1940, in response to

Lacustrine Records of Holocene Mountain Glacier Fluctuations from Western Greenland

Science.gov (United States)

Schweinsberg, A.; Briner, J. P.; Bennike, O.

2014-12-01

Recent studies have focused on documenting fluctuations of the Greenland Ice Sheet margin throughout the Holocene but few data exist that constrain past changes of local glaciers independent of the ice sheet. Our research combines proglacial lake sediment analysis with cosmogenic 10Be dating of Holocene moraines and radiocarbon dating of ice-cap-killed vegetation with an overall objective to use this multi-proxy approach to generate a detailed record of the coupled climate-glacier system through the Holocene. Here, we present lacustrine records of mountain glacier variability from continuous pro-glacial lake sediment sequences recovered from two glaciated catchments in northeastern Nuussuaq, western Greenland. We use radiocarbon-dated sediments from Sikuiui and Pauiaivik lakes to reconstruct the timing of advance and retreat of local glaciers. Sediments were characterized with magnetic susceptibility (MS), gamma density, Itrax XRF and visible reflectance spectroscopy at 0.2 cm intervals and sediment organic matter at 0.5 cm intervals. Basal radiocarbon ages provide minimum-age constraints on deglaciation from Sikuiui and Pauiaivik lakes of ~9.6 and 8.7 ka, respectively. Organic-rich gyttja from deglaciation until ~5.0 ka in Pauiaivik Lake suggests minimal glacial extent there while slightly elevated MS values from ~9.0 - 7.0 ka in Sikuiui Lake may reflect early Holocene glacial advances. Minerogenic sediment input gradually increases starting at ~5.0 ka in Pauiaivik Lake, which we interpret as the onset of Neoglaciation in the catchment. Furthermore, a distinct episode of enhanced glacial activity from ~4.0 - 2.2 ka in Sikuiui Lake may be correlative to a period of persistent snowline lowering evidenced by radiocarbon dates of ice-killed vegetation from nearby ice cap margins. Results from these lacustrine records and our ice-killed vegetation dataset suggest a middle Holocene onset of Neoglaciation ~5.0 - 4.0 ka in this region. We are supplementing these records

Late Glacial and Holocene Flow Dynamics of the Denmark Strait Overflow Water

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, M.; Schmidt, D. N.; Andersen, M. B.; Barker, S.; McCave, I. N. N.

2014-12-01

The overflow of dense water from the Nordic Seas to the North Atlantic across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge forms a major component of the deep branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and influences the climate system in Northwest Europe. Research has focused on deep convection of the Iceland Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) and its links to climate variability in the North Atlantic. Our understanding of the history of the Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) is significantly less constrained and yet it accounts for half of the total overflow production today. We focus on the Eirik Drift south of Greenland in the vicinity of the DSOW. Down-core 230Thxs derived sediment focusing factors (Ψ) and measurements of the mean size of sortable silt reveal winnowed sediments during the Last Glacial Maximum and Heinrich 1 suggesting an influx of vigorous southern sourced waters and restricted DSOW production. Reduced overflow may be due to glacial isostatic processes which shoaled the Denmark Strait sill combined with a southward shift of deep convection sites in response to enhanced ice cover in the Nordic Seas. Intensification of the DSOW is evident between 9 and 13ka BP indicating initial deepening of the Denmark Strait sill and northward migration of the locus of deep water production. Ψ values for the Holocene suggest an active DSOW with a shift in the flow regime at 6.8 ka BP indicated by a reduction and subsequent stabilization of mean size sortable silt during the mid-late Holocene. This is corroborated by other studies showing a reorganization of the deep water after 7ka. An establishment of the Labrador Sea Water at intermediate depths altered the density structure of the deep western boundary current and weakened the ISOW. Changes in deep water circulation occur as North Atlantic climate entered Neoglacial cooling determined by Mg/Ca derived sea surface temperatures and abundances of the polar planktic foraminifera species N. pachyderma. They

Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

2015-03-07

How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Climate variability and sustainable food production: Insights from ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The past two decades have seen invigorated debates on the causal link between climate variability and food crop production. This study[1] extends the debate further by investigating how climate variability has affected the production of four specific food crops: maize, millet, rice, and groundnuts in north-eastern Ghana.

Electricity consumption and climate, relationship with climatic variable

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fonte Hernandez, Aramis; Rivero Jaspe, Zoltan

2004-01-01

Perhaps, since in the world people is more concerned about the possibility of climatic impact on the energy consumption, actually it is an attractive theme not only for undeveloped countries, but also for developed. In this work, a study on the electricity consumption of residential sector in the province of Camaguey, Cuba, during the last ten years of X X century, was done. In it, climatic variables like temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, and wind speed, were included. Specifically, in the case of temperature, it was used both in its primitive form, and like a derived variable in the form of degree-day. For this reason, firstly the appropriate value of base temperature for the area under study was determined, obtaining a value of 23.6 Celsius Degrade. After that, using nonlinear regression analysis, statistical models with acceptable predictive capacity, were obtained

Temporal relationship between climate variability, Prosopis juliflora ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Kyuma

Key words: Climate, drylands, livestock, Prosopis juliflora, variability vegetation, trends, mesquite. ... climate change is costly and predictions are that both it and its cost will escalate ... Resilience Alliance, 2010; Tennigkeit and Wilkes, 2008;.

Climate Change and Variability in Ghana: Stocktaking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felix A. Asante

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper provides a holistic literature review of climate change and variability in Ghana by examining the impact and projections of climate change and variability in various sectors (agricultural, health and energy and its implication on ecology, land use, poverty and welfare. The findings suggest that there is a projected high temperature and low rainfall in the years 2020, 2050 and 2080, and desertification is estimated to be proceeding at a rate of 20,000 hectares per annum. Sea-surface temperatures will increase in Ghana’s waters and this will have drastic effects on fishery. There will be a reduction in the suitability of weather within the current cocoa-growing areas in Ghana by 2050 and an increase evapotranspiration of the cocoa trees. Furthermore, rice and rooted crops (especially cassava production are expected to be low. Hydropower generation is also at risk and there will be an increase in the incidence rate of measles, diarrheal cases, guinea worm infestation, malaria, cholera, cerebro-spinal meningitis and other water related diseases due to the current climate projections and variability. These negative impacts of climate change and variability worsens the plight of the poor, who are mostly women and children.

Centennial-scale vegetation dynamics and climate variability in SE Europe during Marine Isotope Stage 11 based on a pollen record from Lake Ohrid

Science.gov (United States)

Kousis, Ilias; Koutsodendris, Andreas; Peyron, Odile; Leicher, Niklas; Francke, Alexander; Wagner, Bernd; Giaccio, Biagio; Knipping, Maria; Pross, Jörg

2018-06-01

To better understand climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, we here present a new, centennial-scale-resolution pollen record from Lake Ohrid (Balkan Peninsula) derived from sediment cores retrieved during an International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) campaign. Our palynological data, augmented by quantitative pollen-based climate reconstructions, provide insight into the vegetation dynamics and thus also climate variability in SE Europe during one of the best orbital analogues for the Holocene. Comparison of our palynological results with other proxy data from Lake Ohrid as well as with regional and global climate records shows that the vegetation in SE Europe responded sensitively both to long- and short-term climate change during MIS 11. The chronology of our palynological record is based on orbital tuning, and is further supported by the detection of a new tephra from the Vico volcano, central Italy, dated to 410 ± 2 ka. Our study indicates that MIS 11c (∼424-398 ka) was the warmest interval of MIS 11. The younger part of the interglacial (i.e., MIS 11b-11a; ∼398-367 ka) exhibits a gradual cooling trend passing over into MIS 10. It is characterized by considerable millennial-scale variability as inferred by six abrupt forest-contraction events. Interestingly, the first forest contraction occurred during full interglacial conditions of MIS 11c; this event lasted for ∼1.7 kyrs (406.2-404.5 ka) and was characterized by substantial reductions in winter temperature and annual precipitation. Most notably, it occurred ∼7 ka before the end of MIS 11c and ∼15 ka before the first strong ice-rafted debris event in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that millennial-scale climate variability during MIS 11 was established in Southern Europe already during MIS 11c, which is earlier than in the North Atlantic where it is registered only from MIS 11b onwards.

THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABLES AND CROP AREA ON MAIZE YIELD AND VARIABILITY IN GHANA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry De-Graft Acquah

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Climate change tends to have negative effects on crop yield through its influence on crop production. Understanding the relationship between climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of crop yield will facilitate development of appropriate policies to cope with climate change. This paper examines the effects of climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of maize yield in Ghana. The Just and Pope stochastic production function using the Cobb-Douglas functional form was employed. The results show that average maize yield is positively related to crop area and negatively related to rainfall and temperature. Furthermore, increase in crop area and temperature will enlarge maize yield variability while rainfall increase will decrease the variability in maize yield.

A Pseudoproxy-Ensemble Study of Late-Holocene Climate Field Reconstructions Using CCA

Science.gov (United States)

Amrhein, D. E.; Smerdon, J. E.

2009-12-01

Recent evaluations of late-Holocene multi-proxy reconstruction methods have used pseudoproxy experiments derived from millennial General Circulation Model (GCM) integrations. These experiments assess the performance of a reconstruction technique by comparing pseudoproxy reconstructions, which use restricted subsets of model data, against complete GCM data fields. Most previous studies have tested methodologies using different pseudoproxy noise levels, but only with single realizations for each noise classification. A more robust evaluation of performance is to create an ensemble of pseudoproxy networks with distinct sets of noise realizations and a corresponding reconstruction ensemble that can be evaluated for consistency and sensitivity to random error. This work investigates canonical correlation analysis (CCA) as a late-Holocene climate field reconstruction (CFR) technique using ensembles of pseudoproxy experiments derived from the NCAR CSM 1.4 millennial integration. Three 200-member reconstruction ensembles are computed using pseudoproxies with signal-to-noise ratios (by standard deviation) of 1, 0.5, and 0.25 and locations that approximate the spatial distribution of real-world multiproxy networks. An important component of these ensemble calculations is the independent optimization of the three CCA truncation parameters for each ensemble member. This task is accomplished using an inexpensive discrete optimization algorithm that minimizes both RMS error in the calibration interval and the number of free parameters in the reconstruction model to avoid artificial skill. Within this framework, CCA is investigated for its sensitivity to the level of noise in the pseudoproxy network and the spatial distribution of the network. Warm biases, variance losses, and validation-interval error increase with noise level and vary spatially within the reconstructed fields. Reconstruction skill, measured as grid-point correlations during the validation interval, is lowest in

Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Parsons, Luke Alexander

Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014). In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014). In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limon) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is 'red' (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly 'white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall

Human-environment interaction during the Mesolithic- Neolithic transition in the NE Iberian Peninsula. Vegetation history, climate change and human impact during the Early-Middle Holocene in the Eastern Pre-Pyrenees

Science.gov (United States)

Revelles, J.; Burjachs, F.; Palomo, A.; Piqué, R.; Iriarte, E.; Pérez-Obiol, R.; Terradas, X.

2018-03-01

The synthetic analysis of several pollen records from sub-Mediterranean lowland Pre-Pyrenean regions evidences expansion of forests during the Early Holocene in Northeastern Iberia and the establishment of dense deciduous broadleaf forests during the Holocene Climate Optimum. Pollen records show the broadleaf deciduous forests resilience against cooling phases during the Mid-Holocene period, with slight regressions of oak woodlands and expansion of conifers or xerophytic taxa contemporary to some cooling episodes (i.e. 8.2 and 7.2 kyr cal. BP). Major vegetation changes influenced by climate change occurred in the transition to the Late Holocene, in terms of the start of a succession from broadleaf deciduous forests to evergreen sclerophyllous woodlands. The lack of evidence of previous occupation seems to support the Neolithisation of the NE Iberian Peninsula as a result of a process of migration of farming populations to uninhabited or sparsely inhabited territories. In that context, remarkable changes in vegetation were recorded from 7.3 kyr cal. BP onwards in the Lake Banyoles area, where the establishment of permanent farming settlements caused the deforestation of oak woodlands. In La Garrotxa region, short deforestation episodes affecting broadleaf deciduous forests, together with expansion of grasslands and presence of Cerealia-t were documented in the period 7.4-6.0 kyr cal. BP. Finally, in the coastal area, where less evidence of Early Neolithic occupations is recorded, evidence of Neolithic impact is reflected in the presence of Cerealia-t in 6.5-6.2 kyr cal. BP, but no strong human transformation of landscape was carried out until more recent chronologies.

Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the Maasai of ... and vulnerability to climate variability and climate change is assessed, using data ... Model results suggest that the ecosystem is quite resilient and suggests that ...

A plant's perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyer, Christopher P O; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Rammig, Anja; Wolf, Annett; Bartholomeus, Ruud P; Bonfante, Antonello; de Lorenzi, Francesca; Dury, Marie; Gloning, Philipp; Abou Jaoudé, Renée; Klein, Tamir; Kuster, Thomas M; Martins, Monica; Niedrist, Georg; Riccardi, Maria; Wohlfahrt, Georg; de Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; François, Louis; Menzel, Annette; Pereira, Marízia

2013-01-01

We review observational, experimental, and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied, although potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heat-waves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational, and/or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Long-term climatic change and sustainable ground water resources management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loaiciga, Hugo A

2009-01-01

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), prominently carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and halocarbons, have risen from fossil-fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture, and industry. There is currently heated national and international debate about the consequences of such increasing concentrations of GHGs on the Earth's climate, and, ultimately, on life and society in the world as we know it. This paper reviews (i) long-term patterns of climate change, secular climatic variability, and predicted population growth and their relation to water resources management, and, specifically, to ground water resources management, (ii) means available for mitigating and adapting to trends of climatic change and climatic variability and their impacts on ground water resources. Long-term (that is, over hundreds of millions of years), global-scale, climatic fluctuations are compared with more recent (in the Holocene) patterns of the global and regional climates to shed light on the meaning of rising mean surface temperature over the last century or so, especially in regions whose historical hydroclimatic records exhibit large inter-annual variability. One example of regional ground water resources response to global warming and population growth is presented.

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

2016-01-01

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climatic variability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruane, A C; Hudson, N I; Asseng, S

2016-01-01

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and ......-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.......We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and we...... evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal...

Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Notaro, Michael [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States)

2008-06-15

The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States' ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation, climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes. (orig.)

Late mid-Holocene sea-level oscillation: A possible cause

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, D. B.; Collins, E. S.

Sea level oscillated between 5500 and 3500 years ago at Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, Chezzetcook and Baie Verte, Nova Scotia and Montmagny, Quebec. The oscillation is well constrained by foraminiferal marsh zonations in three locations and by diatoms in the fourth one. The implications are: (1) there was a eustatic sea-level oscillation of about 2-10 m in the late mid-Holocene on the southeast coast of North America (South Carolina to Quebec) that is not predicted by present geophysical models of relative sea-level change; (2) this oscillation coincides with oceanographic cooling on the east coast of Canada that we associate with melting ice; and (3) this sea- level oscillation/climatic event coincides exactly with the end of pyramid building in Egypt which is suggested to have resulted from a climate change (i.e. drought, cooling). This sea-level/climatic change is a prime example of feedback where climatic warming in the mid-Holocene promoted ice melt in the Arctic which subsequently caused climatic cooling by opening up Arctic channels releasing cold water into the Inner Labrador Current that continued to intensify until 4000 years ago. This sea-level event may also be the best way of measuring when the final ice melted since most estimates of the ages of the last melting are based on end moraine dates in the Arctic which may not coincide with when the last ice actually melted out, since there is no way of dating the final ice positions.

Late Holocene climate and chemical change at high latitudes: case studies from contaminated sites in subarctic and arctic Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Galloway, Jennifer M.; Cooney, Darryl; Crann, Carley; Falck, Hendrik; Howell, Dana; Jamieson, Heather; Macumber, Andrew; Nasser, Nawaf; Palmer, Michael; Patterson, R. Timothy; Parsons, Michael; Roe, Helen M.; Sanei, Hamed; Spence, Christopher; Stavinga, Drew; Swindles, Graeme T.

2015-04-01

preserved in the lake sediment cores are informed by our characterization of sediments from over 50 lakes in the region. In the longer record obtained from the Giant Mine area we show that the concentration of aqua regia leached As increases prior to resource development and that concentrations are variable over millennia. Lowest concentrations of As in the ~3500 cal yr BP record are coincident with regional Neoglacial cooling. As concentrations begin to increase from concentrations near 100 ppm to over 1000 ppm in the lastest Holocene, coincident with a period of regional warming associated with the Medieval Warm period, although at this point we cannot rule out post-depositional remobilization of As from higher in the sediment column. Concentrations in excess of 10,000 ppm at the top of the sediment core are likely associated with anthropogenic release of this contaminant. At the more northern Courageous Lake site, the sediment record extends back about a hundred years, and reveals that concentrations of As in lake sediments prior to development of the area were about 40 ppm. Increases in As are associated with drilling and mine production but continued increases after 1999 may be due to remobilization of As due to on-going climate warming, recent remediation efforts, or vertical movement of this element in the sediment column.

Late Holocene intensification of the westerly winds at the subantarctic Auckland Islands (51° S), New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Browne, Imogen M.; Moy, Christopher M.; Riesselman, Christina R.; Neil, Helen L.; Curtin, Lorelei G.; Gorman, Andrew R.; Wilson, Gary S.

2017-10-01

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHWWs) play a major role in controlling wind-driven upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean, on interannual to glacial-interglacial timescales. Despite their significance in the global carbon cycle, our understanding of millennial- and centennial-scale changes in the strength and latitudinal position of the westerlies during the Holocene (especially since 5000 yr BP) is limited by a scarcity of palaeoclimate records from comparable latitudes. Here, we reconstruct middle to late Holocene SHWW variability using a fjord sediment core collected from the subantarctic Auckland Islands (51° S, 166° E), located in the modern centre of the westerly wind belt. Changes in drainage basin response to variability in the strength of the SHWW at this latitude are interpreted from downcore variations in magnetic susceptibility (MS) and bulk organic δ13C and atomic C / N, which monitor influxes of lithogenous and terrestrial vs. marine organic matter, respectively. The fjord water column response to SHWW variability is evaluated using benthic foraminifer δ18O and δ13C, both of which are influenced by the isotopic composition of shelf water masses entering the fjord. Using these data, we provide marine and terrestrial-based evidence for increased wind strength from ˜ 1600 to 900 yr BP at subantarctic latitudes that is broadly consistent with previous studies of climate-driven vegetation change at the Auckland Islands. Comparison with a SHWW reconstruction using similar proxies from Fiordland suggests a northward migration of the SHWW over New Zealand during the first half of the last millennium. Comparison with palaeoclimate and palaeoceanographic records from southern South America and West Antarctica indicates a late Holocene strengthening of the SHWW after ˜ 1600 yr BP that appears to be broadly symmetrical across the Pacific Basin. Contemporaneous increases in SHWW at localities on either

The response of the southwest Western Australian wave climate to Indian Ocean climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hetzel, Yasha; Wijeratne, E. M. S.

2018-03-01

Knowledge of regional wave climates is critical for coastal planning, management, and protection. In order to develop a regional wave climate, it is important to understand the atmospheric systems responsible for wave generation. This study examines the variability of the southwest Western Australian (SWWA) shelf and nearshore wind wave climate and its relationship to southern hemisphere climate variability represented by various atmospheric indices: the southern oscillation index (SOI), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI), the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD), the latitudinal position of the subtropical high-pressure ridge (STRP), and the corresponding intensity of the subtropical ridge (STRI). A 21-year wave hindcast (1994-2014) of the SWWA continental shelf was created using the third generation wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), to analyse the seasonal and inter-annual wave climate variability and its relationship to the atmospheric regime. Strong relationships between wave heights and the STRP and the STRI, a moderate correlation between the wave climate and the SAM, and no significant correlation between SOI, DMI, and IOSD and the wave climate were found. Strong spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variability, as well as seasonal longer-term trends in the mean wave climate were studied and linked to the latitudinal changes in the subtropical high-pressure ridge and the Southern Ocean storm belt. As the Southern Ocean storm belt and the subtropical high-pressure ridge shifted southward (northward) wave heights on the SWWA shelf region decreased (increased). The wave height anomalies appear to be driven by the same atmospheric conditions that influence rainfall variability in SWWA.

Aeolian processes during the Holocene in Gannan Region, Eastern Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, S.; Cheng, T.; Li, S.; Liang, M.

2016-12-01

Aeolian desertification occurring in the Tibetan Plateau has received attention recently for it has become a severe environmental problem by accelerating the grassland degradation and eco-environment damage. The Gannan Region is located in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau with a mean altitude of 3500m. It is highly sensitive to global environmental change and human disturbance. Serious soil erosion and desertification and extensive land degradation have caused heavy eco-environmental impacts. To investigate the evolution of the desertification in Holocene in the Plateau is of great importance for understanding the desertification trend under the global changes in the Tibetan Plateau. Loess and aeolian sands is a key geological archive related to desertification processes and the past environment changes. In this study a typical 8.5m-thick loess-sands profile named MQQ, was selected at the Maqu city. It is situated on the first terrace (T1) of the Yellow River. Detailed accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dating of bulk organic matter content has shown the Aeolian sediments of the MQQ section occurring since the early Holocene. the mass-specific frequency-dependent magnetic susceptibility (χfd) and grainsize records show a clear upward increase in the contents of superparamagnetic grains and fine fractions in grain size, which indicates a gradual wetting trend during the Holocene.The sediment rates change from very high in the early Holocene to low values after 8.2 ka. The wetting process can be divided into three steps: 10.0-8.2 ka, 8.2-3.0 ka and 3.0-present. It indicates that the climate in the eastern Tibetan Plateau was dry during the early Holocene. After that the climate was getting wet gradually. The variations of the westerlies and the Asian monsoon may cause the environmental change in this region.

Holocene footprints in Namibia: the influence of substrate on footprint variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Morse, Sarita A; Bennett, Matthew R; Liutkus-Pierce, Cynthia; Thackeray, Francis; McClymont, Juliet; Savage, Russell; Crompton, Robin H

2013-06-01

We report a Holocene human and animal footprint site from the Namib Sand Sea, south of Walvis Bay, Namibia. Using these data, we explore intratrail footprint variability associated with small variations in substrate properties using a "whole foot" analytical technique developed for the studies in human ichnology. We demonstrate high levels of intratrail variability as a result of variations in grain size, depositional moisture content, and the degree of sediment disturbance, all of which determine the bearing capacity of the substrate. The two principal trails were examined, which had consistent stride and step lengths, and as such variations in print typology were primarily controlled by substrate rather than locomotor mechanics. Footprint typology varies with bearing capacity such that firm substrates show limited impressions associated with areas of peak plantar pressure, whereas softer substrates are associated with deep prints with narrow heels and reduced medial longitudinal arches. Substrates of medium bearing capacity give displacement rims and proximal movement of sediment, which obscures the true form of the medial longitudinal arch. A simple conceptual model is offered which summarizes these conclusions and is presented as a basis for further investigation into the control of substrate on footprint typology. The method, model, and results presented here are essential in the interpretation of any sites of greater paleoanthropological significance, such as recently reported from Ileret (1.5 Ma, Kenya; Bennett et al.: Science 323 (2009) 1197-1201). Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Influence of orbital forcing and solar activity on water isotopes in precipitation during the mid- and late Holocene

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Dietrich

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this study we investigate the impact of mid- and late Holocene orbital forcing and solar activity on variations of the oxygen isotopic composition in precipitation. The investigation is motivated by a recently published speleothem δ18O record from the well-monitored Bunker Cave in Germany. The record reveals some high variability on multi-centennial to millennial scales that does not linearly correspond to orbital forcing. Our model study is based on a set of novel climate simulations performed with the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso enhanced by explicit water isotope diagnostics. From the performed model experiments, we derive the following major results: (1 the response of both orbital and solar forcing lead to changes in surface temperatures and δ18O in precipitation with similar magnitudes during the mid- and late Holocene. (2 Past δ18O anomalies correspond to changing temperatures in the orbital driven simulations. This does not hold true if an additional solar forcing is added. (3 Two orbital driven mid-Holocene experiments, simulating the mean climate state approximately 5000 and 6000 yr ago, yield very similar results. However, if an identical additional solar activity-induced forcing is added, the simulated changes of surface temperatures as well as δ18O between both periods differ. We conclude from our simulation results that non-linear effects and feedbacks of the orbital and solar activity forcing substantially alter the δ18O in precipitation pattern and its relation to temperature change.

Lateglacial and Holocene climatic changes in south-eastern Patagonia inferred from carbonate isotope records of Laguna Potrok Aike (Argentina)

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Oehlerich, M.; Mayr, C.; Gussone, N.; Hahn, A.; Hölzl, S.; Lücke, A.; Ohlendorf, C.; Rummel, S.; Teichert, B. M. A.; Zolitschka, B.

2015-04-01

First results of strontium, calcium, carbon and oxygen isotope analyses of bulk carbonates from a 106 m long sediment record of Laguna Potrok Aike, located in southern Patagonia are presented. Morphological and isotopic investigations of μm-sized carbonate crystals in the sediment reveal an endogenic origin for the entire Holocene. During this time period the calcium carbonate record of Laguna Potrok Aike turned out to be most likely ikaite-derived. As ikaite precipitation in nature has only been observed in a narrow temperature window between 0 and 7 °C, the respective carbonate oxygen isotope ratios serve as a proxy of hydrological variations rather than of palaeotemperatures. We suggest that oxygen isotope ratios are sensitive to changes of the lake water balance induced by intensity variations of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies and discuss the role of this wind belt as a driver for climate change in southern South America. In combination with other proxy records the evolution of westerly wind intensities is reconstructed. Our data suggest that weak SHW prevailed during the Lateglacial and the early Holocene, interrupted by an interval with strengthened Westerlies between 13.4 and 11.3 ka cal BP. Wind strength increased at 9.2 ka cal BP and significantly intensified until 7.0 ka cal BP. Subsequently, the wind intensity diminished and stabilised to conditions similar to present day after a period of reduced evaporation during the "Little Ice Age". Strontium isotopes (87Sr/86Sr ratio) were identified as a potential lake-level indicator and point to a lowering from overflow conditions during the Glacial (∼17 ka cal BP) to lowest lake levels around 8 ka cal BP. Thereafter the strontium isotope curve resembles the lake-level curve which is stepwise rising until the "Little Ice Age". The variability of the Ca isotope composition of the sediment reflects changes in the Ca budget of the lake, indicating higher degrees of Ca utilisation during the period with

The Holocene and the Late Deglaciation: timing and development on the northern Svalbard margin

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Slubowska, M. A.; Koc, N.; Rasmussen, T. L.

2002-12-01

Svalbard is located in the high Arctic (76§ to 81§ N and 10§ to 28§ E) at the northernmost reach of the warmer West Spitsbergen Current, which forms the continuation of the North Atlantic Current. At this position, close to the Polar Front, even small variations in the current are expected to have large effects on the regional climate. Therefore, the Svalbard area is ideal for monitoring past changes in the ocean circulation as well as the timing and the nature of the Svalbard ice sheet disintegration. We have investigated core NP94-51 SC2 (80§ 21,346 N, 16§ 17,970 E, 400m water depth and 714 cm long) retrieved from the mouth of the Hinlopen Strait in the Arctic Ocean, north of Svalbard. The main objective of this study is to document a) the deglaciation history of the area, b) the Holocene climate variability on the decadal time scales using sedimentological, physical and biological analysis. AMS-14C dating gives the age of approximately 14,000 BP for the bottom of the core. The Holocene interglacial is represented by c. 5 m. A detailed analysis of different oceanographic proxies such as: ice rafted debris, magnetic susceptibility, spectral reflectance (L*a*b scale), benthic and planktic foraminiferal fauna, diatom flora, grain size and radiocarbon dates (AMS-14C) were used to reconstruct the paleoceanographic evolution of the area. The results show that disintegration of the Hinlopen Strait ice sheet and, possibly, the northern margin of the Svalbard ice sheet began at 14,000 BP. The influx of the subsurface Atlantic waters into the area began during the Bolling interstadial at 12,600 BP, while the surface waters were still cold and of low salinity. The retreat of the sea ice cover occurred together with the opening of the surface waters at 10,800 BP. During major part of the Younger Dryas (10,800 - 10,000 BP) the Polar Front was located close to the core site. At 10,100 BP the Polar Front retreated from that area. In comparison to the deglaciation

Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

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Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

2018-04-01

This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

KAUST Repository

Imbers, Jara; Lopez, Ana; Huntingford, Chris; Allen, Myles

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

KAUST Repository

Imbers, Jara

2014-05-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

A stable-isotope tree-ring timescale of the Late Glacial/Holocene boundary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, Bernd; Kromer, Bernd; Trimborn, Peter

1991-01-01

Late Glacial and Holocene tree-ring chronologies, like deep-sea sediments or polar ice cores, contain information about past environments. Changes in tree-ring growth rates can be related to past climate anomalies and changes in the isotope composition of tree-ring cellulose reflect changes in the composition of the atmosphere and the hydrosphere. We have established a 9,928-year absolutely dated dendrochronological record of Holocene oak (Quercus robur, Quercus petraea)-and a 1,604-year floating Late Glacial and Early Holocene chronology of pine (Pinus sylvestris) from subfossil tree remnants deposited in alluvial terraces of south central European rivers. The pine sequence provides records of dendro-dated 14 C, 13 C and 2 H patterns for the late Younger Dryas and the entire Preboreal (10,100-9,000 yr BP). Through the use of dendrochronology, radiocarbon age calibration and stable isotope analysis, we suggest that the Late Glacial/Holocene transition may be identified and dated by 13 C and 2 H tree-ring chronologies. (author)

Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

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Busalacchi, Antonio J.

1999-01-01

Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL-FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few ship-tracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

Holocene evolution of a montane lake catchment inferred from multiproxy sediment analysis : climatic and anthropic impacts in french prealps

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Bajard, Manon; Sabatier, Pierre; Poulenard, Jérôme; David, Fernand; Arnaud, Fabien; Develle, Anne-Lise; Reyss, Jean-Louis; Fanget, Bernard; Malet, Emmanuel; Crouzet, Christian

2015-04-01

Lake La Thuile in the Massif des Bauges (874 m a.s.l. French Alps) provides a 18 meters sedimentary sequence. Due to its mid-altitude position, this lake is one of the first to be formed through the glacial retreat and documents the evolution of its catchment since the Late Glacial Maximum. The first 6 meters of the core cover the last 12 000 years, and allowed to study human/climate/environment interactions in a carbonated environment. This study is the first one to investigate a mid-altitude lake in the French Alps for paleoenvironment reconstruction from lake sediment archive. Its altitudinal position presents the advantage to be very accessible to human activities and allows more developed agriculture than in higher altitude. This study aims to determined how and when is expressed the erosive response of such an environment to human settlement. High resolution multiproxy analysis of the first 6 meters including sedimentological, palynological and geochemical data associated to a well-constrained chronology over the Holocene period allows us to understand the respective impacts of both climate and human on the evolution of Lake La Thuile environment. Five major phases of evolution have been highlighted over this period. From 12 000 to 10 000 yr cal. BP, the vegetation is developing with the onset of hardwood species and the disappearance of Pinus. From 10 000 to 4500 yr cal. BP the warmer climatic conditions of the middle of the Holocene allows the forest to densify and the very low sedimentation rate indicates that the forest stabilizes slopes and prevents from the erosion on the watershed. The climate cooling of the Neoglacial period triggers a first erosive phase with a decreasing of the forest around 3300 cal. BP. Human settlements are suggested at La Thuile from 2500 yr cal. BP by palynological evidence of anthropic taxa. The triggered clearing is accompanied by a second erosive phase related to anthropic activities during the Roman period. Erosion

Mapping the Holocene forest formations with the use of key climate indicators – heat and moisture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. K. Farber

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the methodology of mapping the Holocene forest formations on the basis of the DEM and the key indicators of the climate – heat and moisture. The work is carried out by means of GIS. The test site is located within the boundaries of the axial West Sayan district of mountain taiga forests, which ensures homogeneity of natural and climatic conditions. Stages of the method: creation of rasters on groups of absolute heights, exposures and inclinations with their subsequent combination into a single Combine raster; obtaining the regularities of spatial distribution of heat and moisture and their representation in the form of rasters (digital models; and interactive mapping of the Holocene forests with various combinations of heat and moisture. The use of Combine raster makes it possible to refuse to use any other contours as – landscape, geomorphological, forest inventory. To determine parameters of climatic boundaries of forest formations, the types of forests are linked to the heat and moisture indicators. As a result of linking, a graphic image is produced, where forest formations and their productivity are located in a certain order. The mapping technique involves creating a dBASE table with a field containing information about forest formations. The row-wise change in the records of forest formations as they move to other values of heat and moisture is performed interactively. Each next combination of heat and moisture on maps corresponds to a certain distribution of forest formations and site productivity (bonitet classes. (1900 ± 65 years ago the river valleys were treeless, flat meadows occupied meadows, and the slopes were steppes. As the hypsometric level increases, larch stands, spruce-Siberian stone pine with an admixture of larch, Siberian stone pine-larch with an admixture of fir, and the Siberian stone pine formations appear. (2200 ± 100 years ago the tundra prevailed. Larch forests of V–Va classes of

Vegetation and Carbon Cycle Dynamics in the High-Resolution Transient Holocene Simulations Using the MPI Earth System Model

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Brovkin, V.; Lorenz, S.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.; Dallmeyer, A.

2017-12-01

-scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies.

Toward explaining the Holocene carbon dioxide and carbon isotope records: Results from transient ocean carbon cycle-climate simulations

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Menviel, L.; Joos, F.

2012-03-01

The Bern3D model was applied to quantify the mechanisms of carbon cycle changes during the Holocene (last 11,000 years). We rely on scenarios from the literature to prescribe the evolution of shallow water carbonate deposition and of land carbon inventory changes over the glacial termination (18,000 to 11,000 years ago) and the Holocene and modify these scenarios within uncertainties. Model results are consistent with Holocene records of atmospheric CO2 and δ13C as well as the spatiotemporal evolution of δ13C and carbonate ion concentration in the deep sea. Deposition of shallow water carbonate, carbonate compensation of land uptake during the glacial termination, land carbon uptake and release during the Holocene, and the response of the ocean-sediment system to marine changes during the termination contribute roughly equally to the reconstructed late Holocene pCO2 rise of 20 ppmv. The 5 ppmv early Holocene pCO2 decrease reflects terrestrial uptake largely compensated by carbonate deposition and ocean sediment responses. Additional small contributions arise from Holocene changes in sea surface temperature, ocean circulation, and export productivity. The Holocene pCO2 variations result from the subtle balance of forcings and processes acting on different timescales and partly in opposite direction as well as from memory effects associated with changes occurring during the termination. Different interglacial periods with different forcing histories are thus expected to yield different pCO2 evolutions as documented by ice cores.

Vegetation and land carbon feedbacks in the high-resolution transient Holocene simulations using the MPI Earth system model

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Brovkin, Victor; Lorenz, Stephan; Raddatz, Thomas

2017-04-01

Plants influence climate through changes in the land surface biophysics (albedo, transpiration) and concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases. One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon due to productivity decrease. This decadal- scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies. Members of the Hamburg Holocene Team: Jürgen Bader1, Sebastian Bathiany2, Victor Brovkin1, Martin Claussen1,3, Traute Cr

Early-Holocene decoupled summer temperature and monsoon precipitation in southwest China

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Wu, D.; Chen, F.; Chen, X.; Lv, F.; Zhou, A.; Chen, J.; Abbott, M. B.; Yu, J.

2017-12-01

Proxy based reconstructions of Holocene temperature have shown that both the timing and magnitude of the thermal maximum vary substantially between different regions; the simulations results from climate models also show that summers were substantially cooler over regions directly influenced by the presence of the Laurentide ice sheet during the early Holocene, whereas other regions of the Northern Hemisphere were dominated by orbital forcing. However, for lack of summer temperature reconstruction in the low latitude regions like southwestern China dominated by the Indian summer monsoon, the Holocene summer temperature variations and it underlying forcing mechanism are ambiguous. Here we present a well-dated record of pollen-based quantitative summer temperature (mean July; MJT) over the last 14000 years from Xingyun Lake, Yunnan Province, southwest China. It was found that MJT decreased during the YD event, then increased slowly until 7400 yr BP, and decreased thereafter. The MJT shows a pattern with middle Holocene maximum of MJT, indicating a different changing pattern with the carbonate oxygen isotope record (d18O) from the same core during the early Holocene (11500-7400 yr BP), which has the similar variation with speleothem d18O record from Dongge cave, both indicate the variation of monsoon precipitation with the highest precipitation occurred during the early Holocene. Therefore, we propose that the variation of summer temperature and precipitation in southwest China was decoupled during the early Holocene. However, both MJT and monsoon precipitation decreased after the middle Holocene following the boreal summer insolation. We suggest that the high precipitation with strong summer monsoon and hence higher cloud cover may depress the temperature increasing forced by increasing summer insolation during the early Holocene; while melting ice-sheet in the high latitude regions had strongly influenced the summer temperature increase during the deglacial period

Late Holocene intensification of the westerly winds at the subantarctic Auckland Islands (51° S, New Zealand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. M. Browne

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHWWs play a major role in controlling wind-driven upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW and outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean, on interannual to glacial–interglacial timescales. Despite their significance in the global carbon cycle, our understanding of millennial- and centennial-scale changes in the strength and latitudinal position of the westerlies during the Holocene (especially since 5000 yr BP is limited by a scarcity of palaeoclimate records from comparable latitudes. Here, we reconstruct middle to late Holocene SHWW variability using a fjord sediment core collected from the subantarctic Auckland Islands (51° S, 166° E, located in the modern centre of the westerly wind belt. Changes in drainage basin response to variability in the strength of the SHWW at this latitude are interpreted from downcore variations in magnetic susceptibility (MS and bulk organic δ13C and atomic C ∕ N, which monitor influxes of lithogenous and terrestrial vs. marine organic matter, respectively. The fjord water column response to SHWW variability is evaluated using benthic foraminifer δ18O and δ13C, both of which are influenced by the isotopic composition of shelf water masses entering the fjord. Using these data, we provide marine and terrestrial-based evidence for increased wind strength from  ∼  1600 to 900 yr BP at subantarctic latitudes that is broadly consistent with previous studies of climate-driven vegetation change at the Auckland Islands. Comparison with a SHWW reconstruction using similar proxies from Fiordland suggests a northward migration of the SHWW over New Zealand during the first half of the last millennium. Comparison with palaeoclimate and palaeoceanographic records from southern South America and West Antarctica indicates a late Holocene strengthening of the SHWW after  ∼  1600 yr BP that appears to be broadly symmetrical across the Pacific Basin

Rapid Late Holocene glacier fluctuations reconstructed from South Georgia lake sediments using novel analytical and numerical techniques

Science.gov (United States)

van der Bilt, Willem; Bakke, Jostein; Werner, Johannes; Paasche, Øyvind; Rosqvist, Gunhild

2016-04-01

The collapse of ice shelves, rapidly retreating glaciers and a dramatic recent temperature increase show that Southern Ocean climate is rapidly shifting. Also, instrumental and modelling data demonstrate transient interactions between oceanic and atmospheric forcings as well as climatic teleconnections with lower-latitude regions. Yet beyond the instrumental period, a lack of proxy climate timeseries impedes our understanding of Southern Ocean climate. Also, available records often lack the resolution and chronological control required to resolve rapid climate shifts like those observed at present. Alpine glaciers are found on most Southern Ocean islands and quickly respond to shifts in climate through changes in mass balance. Attendant changes in glacier size drive variations in the production of rock flour, the suspended product of glacial erosion. This climate response may be captured by downstream distal glacier-fed lakes, continuously recording glacier history. Sediment records from such lakes are considered prime sources for paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we present the first reconstruction of Late Holocene glacier variability from the island of South Georgia. Using a toolbox of advanced physical, geochemical (XRF) and magnetic proxies, in combination with state-of-the-art numerical techniques, we fingerprinted a glacier signal from glacier-fed lake sediments. This lacustrine sediment signal was subsequently calibrated against mapped glacier extent with the help of geomorphological moraine evidence and remote sensing techniques. The outlined approach enabled us to robustly resolve variations of a complex glacier at sub-centennial timescales, while constraining the sedimentological imprint of other geomorphic catchment processes. From a paleoclimate perspective, our reconstruction reveals a dynamic Late Holocene climate, modulated by long-term shifts in regional circulation patterns. We also find evidence for rapid medieval glacier retreat as well as a

Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula

2013-06-01

Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The Caribbean conundrum of Holocene sea level.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Luke; Mound, Jon

2014-05-01

In the tropics, pre-historic sea-level curve reconstruction is often problematic because it relies upon sea-level indicators whose vertical relationship to the sea surface is poorly constrained. In the Caribbean, fossil corals, mangrove peats and shell material dominate the pre-historic indicator record. The common approach to reconstruction involves the use of modern analogues to these indicators to establish a fixed vertical habitable range. The aim of these reconstructions is to find spatial variability in the Holocene sea level in an area gradually subsiding (different depths. We use the first catalogue to calibrate 14C ages to give a probabilistic age range for each indicator. We use the second catalogue to define a depth probability distribution function (pdf) for mangroves and each coral species. The Holocene indicators are grouped into 12 sub-regions around the Caribbean. For each sub-region we apply our sea-level reconstruction, which involves stepping a fixed-length time window through time and calculating the position (and rate) of sea-level (change) using a thousand realisations of the time/depth pdfs to define an envelope of probable solutions. We find that the sub-regional relative sea-level curves display spatio-temporal variability including a south-east to north-west 1500 year lag in the arrival of Holocene sea level to that of the present day. We demonstrate that these variations are primarily due to glacial-isostatic-adjustment induced sea-level change and that sub-regional variations (where sufficient data exists) are due to local uplift variability.

North–south palaeohydrological contrasts in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene: tentative synthesis and working hypotheses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Magny

2013-09-01

Full Text Available On the basis of a multi-proxy approach and a strategy combining lacustrine and marine records along a north–south transect, data collected in the central Mediterranean within the framework of a collaborative project have led to reconstruction of high-resolution and well-dated palaeohydrological records and to assessment of their spatial and temporal coherency. Contrasting patterns of palaeohydrological changes have been evidenced in the central Mediterranean: south (north of around 40° N of latitude, the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by lake-level maxima (minima, during an interval dated to ca. 10 300–4500 cal BP to the south and 9000–4500 cal BP to the north. Available data suggest that these contrasting palaeohydrological patterns operated throughout the Holocene, both on millennial and centennial scales. Regarding precipitation seasonality, maximum humidity in the central Mediterranean during the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by humid winters and dry summers north of ca. 40° N, and humid winters and summers south of ca. 40° N. This may explain an apparent conflict between palaeoclimatic records depending on the proxies used for reconstruction as well as the synchronous expansion of tree species taxa with contrasting climatic requirements. In addition, south of ca. 40° N, the first millennium of the Holocene was characterised by very dry climatic conditions not only in the eastern, but also in the central- and the western Mediterranean zones as reflected by low lake levels and delayed reforestation. These results suggest that, in addition to the influence of the Nile discharge reinforced by the African monsoon, the deposition of Sapropel 1 has been favoured (1 by an increase in winter precipitation in the northern Mediterranean borderlands, and (2 by an increase in winter and summer precipitation in the southern Mediterranean area. The climate reversal following the Holocene climate optimum appears to

Human activity and climate variability project: annual report 2001

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harle, K.J.; Heijnis, H.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Sharmeen, S.; Zahorowski, W.

2002-01-01

Knowledge of the state of the Australian environment, including natural climate variability, prior to colonial settlement is vital if we are to define and understand the impact of over two hundred years of post-industrial human activity on our landscape. ANSTO, in conjunction with university partners, is leading a major research effort to provide natural archives of human activity and climate variability over the last 500 years in Australia, utilising a variety of techniques, including lead-210 and radiocarbon dating and analyses of proxy indicators (such as microfossils) as well as direct evidence (such as trace elements) of human activity and climate variability. The other major project objectives were to contribute to the understanding of the impact of human induced and natural aerosols in the East Asian region on climate through analysis and sourcing of fine particles and characterisation of air samples using radon concentrations and to contribute to the improvement of land surface parameterisation schemes and investigate the potential to use stable isotopes to improve global climate models and thus improve our understanding of future climate

A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

Science.gov (United States)

Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

2013-01-01

We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

The Holocene vegetation history of northern West Jutland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Odgaard, Bent Vad

1994-01-01

. The Holocene history of each lake basin was investigated by mapping of sediment distribution, analysis of loss-on-ignition, coarse inorganic matter, humus content, mineral magnetics, 6°C. pollen and selected other microfossils. These techniques were supplemented by plant macrofossil analysis at one site....... Holocene terrestrial vegetational development was inferred at each site from analyses of pollen and microscopical charred particles. Chronologies were provided by numerous I4C dates. Stratigraphies of wet ground and terrestrial pollen and spore types were zooned by stratigraphically constrained cluster......, the synchronous timing of relatively rapid inferred change in lake and terrestrial vegetation around AD 600 may reflect changes in climate as well as in land-use. Redundancy analysis was used to develop a model between fire intensity (inferred from microscopical charred particles) and vegetational response...

Late Holocene vegetation, climate, and land-use impacts on carbon dynamics in the Florida Everglades

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Miriam C.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Willard, Debra A.

2014-01-01

Tropical and subtropical peatlands are considered a significant carbon sink. The Florida Everglades includes 6000-km2 of peat-accumulating wetland; however, detailed carbon dynamics from different environments within the Everglades have not been extensively studied or compared. Here we present carbon accumulation rates from 13 cores and 4 different environments, including sawgrass ridges and sloughs, tree islands, and marl prairies, whose hydroperiods and vegetation communities differ. We find that the lowest rates of C accumulation occur in sloughs in the southern Everglades. The highest rates are found where hydroperiods are generally shorter, including near-tails of tree islands and drier ridges. Long-term average rates of 100 to >200 g C m−2 yr−1 are as high, and in some cases, higher than rates recorded from the tropics and 10–20 times higher than boreal averages. C accumulation rates were impacted by both the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, but the largest impacts to C accumulation rates over the Holocene record have been the anthropogenic changes associated with expansion of agriculture and construction of canals and levees to control movement of surface water. Water management practices in the 20th century have altered the natural hydroperiods and fire regimes of the Everglades. The Florida Everglades as a whole has acted as a significant carbon sink over the mid- to late-Holocene, but reduction of the spatial extent of the original wetland area, as well as the alteration of natural hydrology in the late 19th and 20th centuries, have significantly reduced the carbon sink capacity of this subtropical wetland.

A Record of Holocene Paleoclimate Evolution from Robertson Bay, Victoria Land, Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

Riesselman, C. R.; Truax, O.; Wilson, G. S.; Parker, R. L.; Yoo, K. C.; Lee, J. I.; Levy, R. H.; Mckay, R. M.

2017-12-01

Regionally representative records of how Antarctica responded to the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum into the Holocene are an essential component of understanding the processes by which the Antarctic cryosphere responds to a changing climate. Here, we present a high-resolution record of Holocene Antarctic paleoclimate evolution from a previously unstudied section of the Victoria Land margin. In 2015 the Korea Polar Research Institute collected a 571 cm sediment core, GC57, from Robertson Bay, a protected embayment west of Cape Adare and adjacent to the outlet glaciers of the Transantarctic Mountains. Using diatom assemblages, bulk sediment geochemistry, and the magnetic properties of GC57, we aim to reconstruct the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to warming associated with deglaciation and the Holocene climatic optima at the interface between the Ross Sea and the Southern Ocean. Our multiproxy approach allows us to study sea ice extent, seasonality, ocean stratification and circulation, and primary productivity from the mid-Holocene (7,400 14C year BP) to the present. A sea-ice associated diatom assemblage indicative of summer sea surface temperatures below 0˚C dominates the basal section of GC57. Although diatoms are well preserved, the unit is characterized by low wt% biogenic silica (average 9%) and a high concentration of magnetic minerals, indicating that biogenic production persisted despite substantial terrigenous input into the bay. A rapid transition at 4708 14C yr BP is identified by a steep increase in wt% BSi (average 13%), a decrease in magnetic minerals, and a subtle assemblage change towards sea-ice associated diatoms with slightly warmer temperature tolerances. The novel ramped pyrolosis 14C dating methodology allows us to date the carbon fixed concurrent with deposition and generate a robust age model for GC57 with an accuracy previously difficult to achieve given the uncertainties associated with dating bulk acid insoluble

Effects of climate variability and climate change on crop production in southern Mali

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Traore, B.; Corbeels, M.; Wijk, van M.T.; Rufino, M.C.; Giller, K.E.

2013-01-01

In West Africa predictions of future changes in climate and especially rainfall are highly uncertain, and up to now no long-term analyses are available of the effects of climate on crop production. This study analyses long-term trends in climate variability at N'Tarla and Sikasso in southern Mali

Late Holocene geomorphic record of fire in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests, Kendrick Mountain, northern Arizona, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Jenkins, S.E.; Hull, Sieg C.; Anderson, D.E.; Kaufman, D.S.; Pearthree, P.A.

2011-01-01

Long-term fire history reconstructions enhance our understanding of fire behaviour and associated geomorphic hazards in forested ecosystems. We used 14C ages on charcoal from fire-induced debris-flow deposits to date prehistoric fires on Kendrick Mountain, northern Arizona, USA. Fire-related debris-flow sedimentation dominates Holocene fan deposition in the study area. Radiocarbon ages indicate that stand-replacing fire has been an important phenomenon in late Holocene ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and ponderosa pine-mixed conifer forests on steep slopes. Fires have occurred on centennial scales during this period, although temporal hiatuses between recorded fires vary widely and appear to have decreased during the past 2000 years. Steep slopes and complex terrain may be responsible for localised crown fire behaviour through preheating by vertical fuel arrangement and accumulation of excessive fuels. Holocene wildfire-induced debris flow events occurred without a clear relationship to regional climatic shifts (decadal to millennial), suggesting that interannual moisture variability may determine fire year. Fire-debris flow sequences are recorded when (1) sufficient time has passed (centuries) to accumulate fuels; and (2) stored sediment is available to support debris flows. The frequency of reconstructed debris flows should be considered a minimum for severe events in the study area, as fuel production may outpace sediment storage. ?? IAWF 2011.

Shift of biome patterns due to simulated climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Claussen, M.

1993-01-01

The variability of simulated equilibrium-response patterns of biomes caused by simulated climate variability and climate shift is analysed. This investigation is based on various realisations of simulated present-day climate and climate shift. It has been found that the difference between biomes computed from three 10-year climatologies and from the corresponding 30-year climatology, simulated by the Hamburg climate model at T21 resolution, amounts to approximately 6% of the total land area, Antarctica excluded. This difference is mainly due to differences in annual moisture availability and winter temperatures. When intercomparing biomes from the 10-year climatologies a 10% difference is seen, but there is no unique difference pattern. In contrast to the interdecadal variability, the shift of conditions favorable for biomes due to a shift in climate in the next 100 years, caused by an increase in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 , reveals a unique trend pattern. It turns out that the strongest and most significant signal is the north-east shift of conditions for boreal biomes. This signal is caused by an increase of annual temperature sums as well as mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months. Trends in annual moisture availability are of secondary importance globally. Regionally, a decrease in water availability affects biomes in Central and East Europe and an increase of water availability leads to a potential increase in tropical rain forest. In total, all differences amount to roughly 30% of the total land surface, Antarctica excluded. (orig./KW)

Modeling key processes causing climate change and variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Henriksson, S.

2013-09-01

Greenhouse gas warming, internal climate variability and aerosol climate effects are studied and the importance to understand these key processes and being able to separate their influence on the climate is discussed. Aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM and the COSMOS millennium model consisting of atmospheric, ocean and carbon cycle and land-use models are applied and results compared to measurements. Topics at focus are climate sensitivity, quasiperiodic variability with a period of 50-80 years and variability at other timescales, climate effects due to aerosols over India and climate effects of northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The main findings of this work are (1) pointing out the remaining challenges in reducing climate sensitivity uncertainty from observational evidence, (2) estimates for the amplitude of a 50-80 year quasiperiodic oscillation in global mean temperature ranging from 0.03 K to 0.17 K and for its phase progression as well as the synchronising effect of external forcing, (3) identifying a power law shape S(f) {proportional_to} f-{alpha} for the spectrum of global mean temperature with {alpha} {approx} 0.8 between multidecadal and El Nino timescales with a smaller exponent in modelled climate without external forcing, (4) separating aerosol properties and climate effects in India by season and location (5) the more efficient dispersion of secondary sulfate aerosols than primary carbonaceous aerosols in the simulations, (6) an increase in monsoon rainfall in northern India due to aerosol light absorption and a probably larger decrease due to aerosol dimming effects and (7) an estimate of mean maximum cooling of 0.19 K due to larger northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The results could be applied or useful in better isolating the human-caused climate change signal, in studying the processes further and in more detail, in decadal climate prediction, in model evaluation and in emission policy

Mid- to Late Holocene environmental dynamics on the Yukon Coastal Plain and Herschel Island (Canada) – evidence from polygonal peatlands and lake sediment

OpenAIRE

Wolter, Juliane

2017-01-01

The North American Arctic witnessed high-amplitude climatic change during the Early Holocene that resulted in regional-scale environmental change. These changes are well documented in the literature. The environmental impacts of moderate climatic oscillations during the Mid- to Late Holocene are less well understood, especially on the Yukon Coastal Plain, which is geographically and topographically isolated from the rest of the western Canadian Arctic. The region is currently experiencing inc...

Miscanti-1: Human occupation during the arid Mid-Holocene event in the high-altitude lakes of the Atacama Desert, South America

Science.gov (United States)

Núñez, Lautaro; Loyola, Rodrigo; Cartajena, Isabel; López, Patricio; Santander, Boris; Maldonado, Antonio; de Souza, Patricio; Carrasco, Carlos

2018-02-01

This paper presents an interdisciplinary study of the Miscanti-1 archaeological site, located in the Holocene terrace deposits accumulated on the eastern margin of Miscanti Lake (4120 m.a.s.l.), northern Chile (23.7° S, 67.7° W). The human response to environmental and climatic variability in the Mid-Holocene (9500-4500 cal yr BP) is discussed through the zooarchaeological, lithic and paleoenvironmental records. We propose that, due to the increased aridity of the period, Miscanti Lake became a brackish paleowetland that attracted discrete groups of hunter-gatherers from lower elevation Andean areas. In contrast with the high frequency of human occupations known for the humid Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene (12600-9500 yr cal BP), the Miscanti-1 site is one of the few occupations recorded in the Atacama Highlands during the Mid-Holocene period. Data analysis suggests logistic and short-term campsite use for hunting the wild camelids that were attracted by the wetlands and fresh water (8100-8300 yr cal BP). In contrast to previous proposals for this period, we propose that access to high altitude environments did not cease, but was made possible by a shift to highly scheduled mobility and a specialized bifacial technology. Finally, the temporal and spatial links of Miscanti-1 are discussed in a regional context.

CLIMATE CHANGE, VARIABILITY AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN ZIMBABWE'S RURAL COMMUNITIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gukurume Simbarashe

2013-02-01

Full Text Available This article explores the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural productivity in the communal area of Bikita. The article further examines the adaptation and mitigation strategies devised by farmers to deal with the vagaries of climate change and variability. The sustainability of these is also interrogated in this article. This study juxtaposed qualitative and quantitative methodologies albeit with more bias on the former. A total of 40 farmers were sampled for unstructured interviews and focus group discussions. This article argues that the adverse impacts of climate change and variability are felt heavily by the poor communal farmers who are directly dependent on agriculture for livelihood. From the study, some of the widely reported signs of climate variability in Bikita included late and unpredictable rains, high temperatures (heat waves, successive drought, shortening rainfall seasons and seasonal changes in the timing of rainfall. The paper argues that climate change has compounded the vulnerability of peasant farmers in the drought - prone district of Bikita plunging them into food insecurity and abject poverty. It emerged in the study that some of effects of climate variability felt by communal farmers in Bikita included failure of crops, death of livestock and low crop yields, all of which have led to declining agricultural productivity. Findings in this study however established that communal farmers have not been passive victims of the vagaries of climate change and variability. They have rationally responded to it through various adaptation and mitigation strategies both individually and collectively.

Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

2014-12-01

Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

Holocene paleoclimatic variation in the Schirmacher Oasis, East Antarctica: A mineral magnetic approach

Science.gov (United States)

Phartiyal, Binita

2014-12-01

An analysis of remanent magnetism and radiocarbon ages in the dry lacustrine/sediment fills of the Schirmacher Oasis (SO) in East Antarctica was conducted to reconstruct past climatic condition. The statistically run mineral magnetic data on paleontological statistics software package (multivariate cluster analysis) placed on accelerator mass spectrometer radiocarbon chronology of the three sediment sections, trace 6 phases of climatic fluctuation between 13 and 3 ka, (Phases 1, 3 and 5 represent cold periods while Phases 2, 4, and 6 represent warm periods). One short warm period (Phase 2, ca. 12.5 ka) occurred in the late Pleistocene, and two marked warm periods (Phase 4, 11-8.7 ka; Phase 6, 4.4-3 ka) occurred in the Holocene. High magnetic susceptibility (χ), saturation isothermal remanent magnetism (SIRM), and soft isothermal remanent magnetism (soft IRM) values correspond to colder periods and low values reflect comparatively warmer lacustrine phases. Holocene Optima (Phase 4) and Mid Holocene Hypsithermal (Phase 6) are distinguished by decreased values of concentrations dependent parameters. Remanence is preserved in the low-coercive minerals. Heavy metals in the sediments include, Fe, Rb, Zn, Mo, Co, Pb, Mn, Cu, and As in order of decreasing abundance.

A shift of thermokarst lakes from carbon sources to sinks during the Holocene epoch

Science.gov (United States)

Walter Anthony, K. M.; Zimov, S. A.; Grosse, G.; Jones, Miriam C.; Anthony, P.; Chapin, F. S.; Finlay, J. C.; Mack, M. C.; Davydov, S.; Frenzel, P.F.; Frolking, S.

2014-01-01

Thermokarst lakes formed across vast regions of Siberia and Alaska during the last deglaciation and are thought to be a net source of atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide during the Holocene epoch1,2,3,4. However, the same thermokarst lakes can also sequester carbon5, and it remains uncertain whether carbon uptake by thermokarst lakes can offset their greenhouse gas emissions. Here we use field observations of Siberian permafrost exposures, radiocarbon dating and spatial analyses to quantify Holocene carbon stocks and fluxes in lake sediments overlying thawed Pleistocene-aged permafrost. We find that carbon accumulation in deep thermokarst-lake sediments since the last deglaciation is about 1.6 times larger than the mass of Pleistocene-aged permafrost carbon released as greenhouse gases when the lakes first formed. Although methane and carbon dioxide emissions following thaw lead to immediate radiative warming, carbon uptake in peat-rich sediments occurs over millennial timescales. We assess thermokarst-lake carbon feedbacks to climate with an atmospheric perturbation model and find that thermokarst basins switched from a net radiative warming to a net cooling climate effect about 5,000 years ago. High rates of Holocene carbon accumulation in 20 lake sediments (47±10 grams of carbon per square metre per year; mean±standard error) were driven by thermokarst erosion and deposition of terrestrial organic matter, by nutrient release from thawing permafrost that stimulated lake productivity and by slow decomposition in cold, anoxic lake bottoms. When lakes eventually drained, permafrost formation rapidly sequestered sediment carbon. Our estimate of about 160petagrams of Holocene organic carbon in deep lake basins of Siberia and Alaska increases the circumpolar peat carbon pool estimate for permafrost regions by over 50 per cent (ref. 6). The carbon in perennially frozen drained lake sediments may become vulnerable to mineralization as permafrost disappears7

The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Neelin, J. D.

2017-12-01

Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.

Influence of cloud radiative effects on tropical circulation and hydrological cycle in the Mid-Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Izumi, Kenji; Kageyama, Masa; Bony, Sandrine; Braconnot, Pascale

2016-04-01

Paleoenvironmental data in particular, vegetation and lake-status at mid-Holocene (6,000 years ago) in Sahara shows that African monsoon extended much further north than today. Much of this change results from the changes in insolation driven by precession of the Earth's orbit, but in the state-of-the-art climate models, this factor alone is insufficient to explain the magnitude of the change. Previous studies showed that ocean and vegetation feedbacks affect the mid-Holocene monsoon and that the incorporation of these feedbacks in models improves the simulation of the hydrological cycle. However, it is not sufficient to reduce the discrepancies between simulated and reconstructed surface climates. In this study, we investigate the extent to which the simulation of cloud-radiative effects matters for the simulation of paleo-climatic changes, and past changes in the position and strength of the tropical rain belts in particular. This is done by running a general circulation model with and without clouds-radiation interactions using the IPSL model. The impact of cloud -radiative effects, which prevents the precipitation band to move north, on the tropical circulation and precipitation changes in mid-Holocene experiments will be discussed. Additionally, we will show the simulated effects of land cover change over Sahara.

Abrupt decadal-to-centennial hydroclimate changes in the Mediterranean region since the mid-Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Hsun-Ming; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Jiang, Xiuyang; Wang, Yongjin; Mii, Horng-Sheng; Michel, Véronique

2016-04-01

A series of severe drought events in the Mediterranean region over the past two decades has posed a threat on both human society and biosystem. Holocene hydrological dynamics can offer valuable clues for understanding future climate and making proper adaption strategy. Here, we present a decadal-resolved stalagmite record documenting various hydroclimatic fluctuations in the north central Mediterranean region since the middle Holocene. The stalagmite δ18O sequence shows dramatic instability, characterized by abrupt shifts between dry and wet conditions Mycenaean Greece, Akkadian Empire, Egyptian Old Kingdom, and Uruk, occurred during the drought events, suggesting an important role of climate impact on human civilization. The unstable hydroclimate evolution is related to transferred North Atlantic Oscillation states. Rate of rapid transfer of precipitation patterns, which can be pin-pointed by our good chronology, improves the prediction to future climate changes in North Atlantic region. We also found that a strong correlation between this stalagmite δ18O and sea surface temperatures especially in Pacific Ocean. This agreement suggests a distant interregional climate teleconnection.

Comment on "Donders, T.H. 2014. Middle Holocene humidity increase in Florida: climate or sea-level? Quaternary Science Reviews 103:170-174."

Science.gov (United States)

Glaser, Paul H.; Hansen, Barbara CS; Donovan, Joseph J.; Givnish, Thomas J.; Stricker, Craig A.; Volin, John C.

2015-01-01

Donders (2014) has recently proposed that the climate of Florida became progressively wetter over the past 5000 years in response to a marked strengthening of the El Niño regime. This reconstruction is largely based on a re-analysis of pollen records from regions north of Lake Okeechobee (Fig. 1) using a new set of pollen transfer functions. Donders concluded that a latitudinal gradient in precipitation prevailed across Florida since the mid Holocene, but the overall trend was toward progressively wetter conditions from 5000 cal BP to the present.

Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

2014-12-01

Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bartlein, P.J. [University of Oregon, Department of Geography, Eugene, Oregon (United States); Harrison, S.P. [University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom); Macquarie University, School of Biological Sciences, North Ryde, NSW (Australia); Brewer, S. [University of Wyoming, Botany Department, Wyoming (United States); Connor, S. [University of the Algarve, Centre for Marine and Environmental Research, Faro (Portugal); Davis, B.A.S. [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lausanne (Switzerland); Gajewski, K.; Viau, A.E. [University of Ottawa, Department of Geography, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Guiot, J. [CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence cedex 4 (France); Harrison-Prentice, T.I. [GTZ, PAKLIM, Jakarta (Indonesia); Henderson, A. [University of Minnesota, Department of Geology and Geophysics, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Peyron, O. [Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement UMR 6249 CNRS-UFC UFR Sciences et Techniques, Besancon Cedex (France); Prentice, I.C. [Macquarie University, School of Biological Sciences, North Ryde, NSW (Australia); University of Bristol, QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom); Scholze, M. [University of Bristol, QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom); Seppae, H. [University of Helsinki, Department of Geology, P.O. Box 65, Helsinki (Finland); Shuman, B. [University of Wyoming, Department of Geology and Geophysics, Laramie, WY (United States); Sugita, S. [Tallinn University, Institute of Ecology, Tallinn (Estonia); Thompson, R.S. [US Geological Survey, PO Box 25046, Denver, CO (United States); Williams, J. [University of Wisconsin, Department of Geography, Madison, WI (United States); Wu, H. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Beijing (China)

2011-08-15

Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from {sup 14}C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing-season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern-analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance. (orig.)

Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

2016-12-01

Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fatichi, S.; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

2014-01-01

Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights: �

Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

2014-09-15

Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights: �

The Holocene warm-humid phases in the North China Plain as recorded by multi-proxy records

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Jianxin; Zhou, Shangzhe; Chang, Hong

2009-02-01

The grain size and palinology of sediment and the frequency of 14C dada provide an integrated reconstruction of the Holocene warm-humid phases of the North China Plain. Two clear intense and long-lasting warm-humid phases were identified by comprehensive research in this region. The first phase was dated back to the early Holocene (9 000-7 000 a BP), and the second was centered at 5 000-3 000 a BP. The warm-humid episode between 9 000 and 7 000 a BP was also recognized at other sites showing global climatic trends rather than local events. Compared with the concern to the warm-humid phase of the early Holocene, the second one was not paid enough attention in the last few decades. The compilation of the Holocene paleoclimate data suggests that perhaps the second warm-humid phase was pervasive in monsoon region of China. In perspective of environmental archaeology, much attention should be devoted to it, because the flourish and adaptation of the Neolithic cultures and the building up of the first state seem to corresponding to the general warm-humid climatic conditions of this period. In addition, a warm-humid interval at 7 200-6 500 a BP was recognized by the grain size data from three sites. However, this warm-humid event was not shown in pollen assemblage and temporal distribution of 14C data. Perhaps, the resolution for climatic reconstruction from pollen and temporal distribution of 14C data cited here is relatively low and small-amplitude and short-period climatic events cannot be well reflected by the data. Due to the difference in locality and elevation of sampling site, as well as in resolution of proxy records, it is difficult to make precise correlation. Further work is needed in the future.

Pleistocene and Holocene Iberian flora: a complete picture and review

Science.gov (United States)

González Sampériz, Penélope

2010-05-01

A detailed analysis of the location and composition of Iberian vegetation types during the whole Pleistocene and Holocene periods shows a complex patched landscape with persistence of different types of ecosystems, even during glacial times. In addition, recent, high-resolution palaeoecological records are changing the traditional picture of post-glacial vegetation succession in the Iberian Peninsula. The main available charcoal and pollen sequences include, coniferous and deciduous forest, steppes, shrublands, savannahs and glacial refugia during the Pleistocene for Meso-thermophytes (phytodiversity reservoirs), in different proportions. This panorama suggests an environmental complexity that relates biotic responses to climate changes forced by Milankovitch cycles, suborbital forcings and by the latitudinal and physiographic particularities of the Iberian Peninsula. Thus, many factors are critical in the course of vegetational developments and strong regional differences are observed since the Early Pleistocene. Currently, the flora of Iberia is located in two biogeographical/climatic regions: the Eurosiberian and the Mediterranean. The first one includes northern and northwestern areas of the peninsula, where post-glacial responses of vegetation are very similar to Central Europe, although with some particularities due to its proximity to both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean region. The second one comprises the main territory of Iberia and shows more complex patterns and singularities, now and in the past. Steppe landscapes dominated extensive areas over all the territory during the cold spells of the Quaternary, especially during the Late Pleistocene up to the Last Glacial Maximum, but differences in composition of the dominant taxa (Compositae versus Artemisia) are observed since the Early Pleistocene, probably related to moisture regional gradients. Coastal shelves and intramountainous valleys, even in continental areas, are spots of floristic

Multidecadal, centennial, and millennial variability in sardine and anchovy abundances in the western North Pacific and climate-fish linkages during the late Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Kuwae, Michinobu; Yamamoto, Masanobu; Sagawa, Takuya; Ikehara, Ken; Irino, Tomohisa; Takemura, Keiji; Takeoka, Hidetaka; Sugimoto, Takashige

2017-12-01

Paleorecords of pelagic fish abundance could better define the nature of fishery productivity dynamics and help understand responses of pelagic fish stocks to long-term climate changes. We report a high-resolution record of sardine and anchovy scale deposition rates (SDRs) from Beppu Bay, Southwest Japan, showing multidecadal and centennial variability in the abundance of Japanese sardine and Japanese anchovy during the last 2850 years. Variations in the sardine SDR showed periodicities at ∼50, ∼100, and ∼300 yr, while variations in the anchovy SDR showed periodicities at ∼30 and ∼260 yr. Comparisons between and correlation analyses of the time series of the sardine and anchovy SDRs demonstrate that there is not a consistent out-of-phase relationship during the last 2850 years. This indicates that the multidecadal alternations in the sardine and anchovy populations commonly seen in the 20th century did not necessarily occur during earlier periods. The Japanese sardine SDR record shows a long-term decreasing trend in the amplitudes of the multidecadal to centennial fluctuations. This decreasing trend may have resulted from an increasing trend in the winter sea surface temperature in the western North Pacific. The multicentennial variability in sardine abundance during the last millennium is consistent with the variabilities in the abnormal snow index in East Asia and the American tree ring-based Pacific Decadal Oscillation index, suggesting a basin-wide or regional climate-marine ecosystem linkage.

Eyewitness Accounts on Climate Variability and the Responses: Perspectives from Farmers

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Jiban Mani Poudel

2012-06-01

Full Text Available People with different socio-cultural arrangements havedifferent experiences and responses to climatic variability. The place specific experiences and responses at community level still remain a little explored issue in the discourse of climate change research. This paper deals with local experiences of climatic variability which have been monitoring by locals in their lifetime, on the one hand, and, on the other, explore their responses or coping mechanisms which they have been practicing to mitigate with climatic risks. Moreover, farmers’ experiences were documented in term of observed climatic variability in their lifetime focusing on qualitative data. I have used eyewitness accounts and hearsays to document their experiences of climatic variability. Moreover, farmers have developed various coping mechanisms such as indigenous knowledge, utilize kinship based social network, environment friendly cropping practices, and use of alternative sources of water (water-tanker, well-water for irrigation, arrange rain-making ritual to cope with climatic uncertainty in their lifetime.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/dsaj.v5i0.6362Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol. 5, 2011: 171-90

Simulation of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bengtsson, Lennart

1999-01-01

The climatic changes in the last century were discussed and focus was on the questions: 1) What are the causes of the rapid climate fluctuations and 2) Is the global warming, which is observed during the last century, caused by natural or anthropogenic effects. It is concluded that an understanding of climate based on the interpretation of observational data only is not feasible, unless supported by an adequate theoretical interpretation. The capabilities of climatic models were discussed and the importance of incorporating 1) calculations of the internal variability of the atmosphere when forced from an ocean with prescribed sea surface temperature as well as for a system consisting of an atmosphere and a mixed ocean of limited depth, 2) a fully coupled atmospheric and ocean model and finally, 3) a fully coupled system including transiently changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. A short summation of the results is presented. The pronounced warming during the last century is not reproduced under the assumption of constant forcing and pollution emissions have to be incorporated into the models in order to bring the simulated data in agreement with observations

Reconstruction of El Niño - Southern oscillation variability during the Holocene

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Donders, T.H.

2005-01-01

The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific constitutes the largest source of global climate variability on interannual timescales. Every 2-7 year the El Niño phenomenon causes altered Pacific circulation, leading to widespread droughts and floods. However, the exact mechanisms

Holocene paleoclimate inferred from salinity histories of adjacent lakes in southwestern Sicily (Italy)

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Curry, B Brandon; Henne, Paul; Mezquita-Joanes, Francesc; Marrone, Federico; Pieri, Valentina; La Mantia, Tommaso; Calo, Camilla; Tinner, Willy

2016-01-01

Marked uncertainties persist regarding the climatic evolution of the Mediterranean region during the Holocene. For instance, whether moisture availability gradually decreased, remained relatively constant, or increased during the last 7000 years remains a matter of debate. To assess Holocene limnology, hydrology and moisture dynamics, the coastal lakes Lago Preola and Gorgo Basso, located in southwestern Sicily, were investigated through several stratigraphic analyses of ostracodes, including multivariate analyses of assemblages, transfer functions of salinity, and biochemical analyses of valves (Sr/Ca, δ18O and δ13C). During the early Holocene, the Gorgo Basso and Lago Preola ostracode records are similar. After an initial period of moderate salinity (1690–6100 mg/l from ca. 10,000–8190 cal yr BP), syndepositional or diagenetic dissolution of ostracode valves suggests that salinity declined to Greek civilization took root in Sicily (2600 cal yr BP), and it completely dominates the record during Roman occupation (roughly 2100 to 1700 cal yr BP). These freshwater conditions at Gorgo Basso suggest high effective moisture when evergreen olive-oak forests collapsed in response to increased Greco-Roman land use and fire. Ostracode valve geochemistry (Sr/Ca, δ18O) suggests significant changes in early vs. late Holocene hydrochemistry, either as changes in salinity or in the seasonality of precipitation. Harmonizing the autecological and geochemical data from Gorgo Basso suggests the latter was more likely, with relatively more late Holocene precipitation falling during the spring, summer, and fall, than winter compared to the early Holocene. Our ostracode-inferred paleosalinity data indicate that moisture availability did not decline during the late Holocene in the central Mediterranean region. Instead, moisture availability was lowest during the early Holocene, and most abundant during the late Holocene.

On the differences between Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene climates in southern South America simulated by PMIP3 models

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Ana Laura; Silvestri, Gabriel E.; Tonello, Marcela S.

2018-04-01

Differences between climate conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Mid-Holocene (MH) in southern South America inferred from the state-of-the-art PMIP3 paleoclimatic simulations are described for the first time in this paper. The aim is to expose characteristics of past climate changes occurred without human influence. In this context, numerical simulations are an indispensable tool for inferring changes in near-surface air temperature and precipitation in regions where proxy information is scarce or absent. The analyzed PMIP3 models describe MH temperatures significantly warmer than those of LGM with magnitudes of change depending on the season and the specific geographic region. In addition, models indicate that seasonal mean precipitation during MH increased with respect to LGM values in wide southern continental areas to the east of the Andes Cordillera whereas seasonal precipitation developed in areas to the west of Patagonian Andes reduced from LGM to MH.

A complete Holocene record of trematode-bivalve infection and implications for the response of parasitism to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Huntley, John Warren; Fürsich, Franz T; Alberti, Matthias; Hethke, Manja; Liu, Chunlian

2014-12-23

Increasing global temperature and sea-level rise have led to concern about expansions in the distribution and prevalence of complex-lifecycle parasites (CLPs). Indeed, numerous environmental variables can influence the infectivity and reproductive output of many pathogens. Digenean trematodes are CLPs with intermediate invertebrate and definitive vertebrate hosts. Global warming and sea level rise may affect these hosts to varying degrees, and the effect of increasing temperature on parasite prevalence has proven to be nonlinear and difficult to predict. Projecting the response of parasites to anthropogenic climate change is vital for human health, and a longer term perspective (10(4) y) offered by the subfossil record is necessary to complement the experimental and historical approaches of shorter temporal duration (10(-1) to 10(3) y). We demonstrate, using a high-resolution 9,600-y record of trematode parasite traces in bivalve hosts from the Holocene Pearl River Delta, that prevalence was significantly higher during the earliest stages of sea level rise, significantly lower during the maximum transgression, and statistically indistinguishable in the other stages of sea-level rise and delta progradation. This stratigraphic paleobiological pattern represents the only long-term high-resolution record of pathogen response to global change, is consistent with fossil and recent data from other marine basins, and is instructive regarding the future of disease. We predict an increase in trematode prevalence concurrent with anthropogenic warming and marine transgression, with negative implications for estuarine macrobenthos, marine fisheries, and human health.

Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation.